Tag: Super Bowl

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 14

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I said Sunday could prove to be a franchise-altering day in the AFC, and I think the results speak for themselves.

  • The Colts (8-5) have likely gone from 7-1 and the No. 1 seed to out of the playoffs after losing to the Jaguars again and losing Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles.
  • The Bengals (4-9) blew a snow game in Buffalo that should absolutely give the team the green light to fire Zac Taylor and his entire staff after Joe Burrow and company will miss the playoffs for a third-straight season.
  • The Ravens (6-7) lost at home to the Steelers (7-6), and while the AFC North is hardly decided, Baltimore still has to play the Patriots and Packers (teams competing for No. 1 seeds), and teams they just lost to at home (Bengals and Steelers on the road). If there was ever a season to force John Harbaugh out of town…
  • The Chiefs (6-7) couldn’t finish another close game against a good team and are on life support for the playoffs, needing to win out and for the Colts and Chargers to lose multiple games (actually not that unrealistic). But with how this year has gone, they’d be foolish not to make some major changes for 2026 as their AFC West reign is over and so may be their playoff streak.

I just wrote earlier this week how we’re trying to make sense of the new contenders this year and the unprecedented decline of so many contenders at once.  However, saying teams like the Bengals, Ravens, and Chiefs (Steelers too) need to make big changes for 2026 is not an overreaction to one off year. There have been things festering for multiple years there, and with the teams in dire situations going into Week 15, maybe they’ll finally realize something has to change.

As for the rest of Week 14, a lot of the games were duds as we’ve only had six comeback opportunities. In fact, the only double-digit comeback win of the last two weeks was the Bills over Bengals today, and the only fourth-quarter lead change on Sunday was Joe Burrowing throwing that pick-six in Buffalo.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Texans at Chiefs: Game of the Day

You have to give the 2025 Chiefs credit. If this was their last stand for the playoffs, and that’ll look increasingly likely if the Chargers win on Monday night, then they gave the home crowd all the greatest hits to their season:

  • An embarrassing pass rush when they didn’t blitz, leaving numerous receivers wide open on third-and-longs.
  • No takeaways on defense again.
  • Harrison Butker had about the loudest doink ever on a missed 42-yard field goal.
  • Limited touches for Brashard Smith (a 7-yard run) and Tyquan Thornton (19 yards but also had a touchdown bomb knocked away in the end zone) despite showing solid play.
  • Remember when the first pass of the season was Travis Kelce running into Xavier Worthy in Brazil? The first pass here saw backup left tackle Wanya Morris suffer a game-ending injury, leaving the offensive line without three starters and placing a third-string left tackle (UDFA rookie) in his NFL debut against the No. 1 defense.
  • Mahomes led the team in rushing with 59 yards (they’re 0-4 this year when that happens).
  • Season on the line, a pass from Mahomes went right off of Kelce’s hands for an interception (third time this year).

But there were a couple wrinkles in this performance that made it stand out as the worst loss of them all this season for the Chiefs: Aggression inconsistency and dropped passes.

The Chiefs, even going back to last year, have made a habit of playing games with limited possessions, usually getting 8-9 drives a week, the lowest total in the NFL. This makes it harder on the offense as every mistake gets magnified, but they made it work better last year with clutch plays to close out one-score games. The exact kind of plays they keep failing on this year.

But this game was different. The Chiefs had a season-high 13 possessions as each team had the ball 13 times. That’s because there were a lot of three-and-out drives and quick stops. It wasn’t a game with limited possessions, so the Chiefs could stand to make some mistakes here as the defense played well even after losing top corner Trent McDuffie early.

That’s why Andy Reid’s fourth-down decision making didn’t make any sense. He let the Dallas game beat him twice, because he was criticized in that one for a fourth-down punt in a shootout with Dallas. But this wasn’t a shootout. It was a grind with C.J. Stroud playing ice cold in the second half.

Reid let the offense go for a 4th-and-1 that led to a 2-yard Kareem Hunt touchdown in the third quarter. They needed the touchdown, so that was fine. But two drives later, why settle for the 36-yard field goal on 4th-and-2 at the 18 to tie the game with 1:50 left in the third? Why not be consistent and go for it again with your offense starting to move it well and the defense playing so well? You were getting possessions.

Then the real head-scratcher: 4th-and-1 at your own 31 in a 10-10 game with 10:22 left. The Texans just punted on a 4th-and-1 at their own 35, because they knew what kind of game this was. Why didn’t Reid understand it? Instead, he let the offense go for it, and Mahomes’ pass to Rashee Rice was defended tightly by Stingley, and I couldn’t tell if it was another defensed-dropped or what. But it was a turnover on downs either way.

Now a struggling Houston offense was set up 31 yards away from the end zone, and that gave the Texans new life to get a go-ahead touchdown, which they did. That decision largely killed the Chiefs in this game.

Then in getting the ball back in a 17-10 game, Reid basically did it again, going for a 4th-and-4 at his own 41 where failure almost likely leads to a 10-point deficit with under 5:00 left. Game over against this defense. And once again, Mahomes’ pass to Rice was flat out dropped.

Surprisingly, Houston went three-and-out after that one, giving Mahomes another chance from 92 yards away and 3:44 left. After a short drop by Kelce on first down, Mahomes threw a pass that should have been a first down to him that went off his hands and right to the defense for the third pick of the night. The second one to start the fourth quarter was an arm punt on third down out of FG range and out of 4-down territory, but this one hurt and it’s something Kelce has done three times this year to Mahomes – none bigger than here.

That one was the dagger as the Texans used up most of the clock to add a field goal for a 20-10 lead with 0:30 left. From there, it was just two stat-padding completions to avoid Mahomes finishing a full game with under 150 passing yards for the first time in his career. It was the first time he threw for 3 interceptions and no touchdowns.

But look what it took to get there. Three linemen out, the backup LT going out on play 1, the No. 1 defense on the other side, and a career-high 8 or 9 drops depending how you want to count some of those plays. Those drops combined with some really poor fourth-down decision making by Reid were actually far more damaging to the game than the backup offensive line was. This wasn’t Super Bowl 55 or Super Bowl 59 all over again with constant pass rush.

This was receivers not getting open against good coverage, then when they did, not completing plays as Mahomes has never had this many drops in one game. Just a ridiculous effort in the biggest game of the year for this team.

If this was Kelce’s last playoff-contention type of game in his NFL career, he finishes it with more drops (2) than catches (1) for the first time in his career. I’d say Mahomes might be a little happy on the downlow if Kelce chooses to retire and marry the most famous woman in the world. But then when you tell me Rice, who dropped a big third-and-8 in Dallas last week in a similar clutch situation, is supposed to be his next top target, I think the Chiefs are in some long-term trouble if they don’t sort this out.

On a cold night with both teams feeling the playoff pressure, the Texans stepped up and the Chiefs did not.

Fight or flight. The 2018-24 Chiefs had it in them to get it done in these games. The 2025 Chiefs simply do not, and the shame of it all is people will look at a game like this and still blame it all on the quarterback.

As for the Texans, they have hands down the best defense in the league this season. They were also very good in 2024, so we know this isn’t a fluke. They’ve been to the playoffs the last two years, got to the divisional round both times, and if they keep playing like this, they just might be able to win out until the Super Bowl in this weakened AFC. They might be the closest team we’ve seen to the 2015 Broncos from a decade ago, and yes, Davis Mills did his Brock Osweiler-level job of saving the season with some big wins over the Jags and Bills.

From 0-3 to 8-5, DeMeco Ryans and company deserve a lot of credit for this turnaround. As for Reid and the Chiefs, they aren’t mathematically eliminated, but it sure looks dire even if collapses by the Chargers (see schedule) and Colts (Jones/schedule) are not improbable at all.

What’s improbable is thinking the 2025 Chiefs can ever get through four straight wins without screwing up a game. They haven’t done it all year, and I no longer expect them to.

It’s a lost season.

Steelers at Ravens: The Rivalry Continues, Same As It Ever Was

This may be a selfish reason to want the continued employment of Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh for these teams, but would the Steelers vs. Ravens rivalry be the same without them? Like, imagine these teams go in the opposite direction and hire some dorks trying to cosplay as Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. It just wouldn’t be the same and what makes this such a great rivalry filled with hard-fought, close games.

You can always throw out the records and spreads when these teams play. Did it matter that both played like shit at home in big losses last week where they turned it over and the quarterbacks were brutal? Nope, you ended up with a 27-22 thriller between two multi-time MVPs at quarterback in their first ever meeting.

Aaron Rodgers turned 42 this week but he looked as good as he has all season. He hit a deep ball to DK Metcalf on his first pass after going an entire month without a pass completed over 20 yards down the field. I want to say he had four in this game alone. He also scored his first rushing touchdown in over four years on a third-down scramble. His movement looked much better this week as if he got a Lazarus Pit to celebrate his 42nd birthday.

Then again, the Baltimore defense has been known to help quarterbacks perk up as Rodgers passed for a season-high 284 yards while taking no sacks. He also had no running game as the Steelers finished with 15 carries for 34 yards for him. Meanwhile, the Ravens rushed for 217 yards in the loss, producing this hilarious statistic about losing a game with a huge rushing margin:

That’s Steelers vs. Ravens in the 2020s for you. More accurately, that’s the Lamar Jackson era as to this day you still have to question Jackson’s arm and ability in games like this, another big one with first place in the AFC North on the line and the Ravens having a tougher remaining schedule.

Jackson won his last two starts against the Steelers in 2024, but his rest of career numbers and moments have been poor to say the least. In this game, he didn’t break 100 passing yards until the fourth quarter as the Ravens were leaning on the ground game with Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell also broke a 55-yard run.

There were some bright moments for Jackson in the fourth quarter, but the Ravens never put it together for a touchdown drive while the Steelers floundered on offense late. There was a go-ahead touchdown to Isaiah Likely that was ruled a drop after Joey Porter Jr. helped knock the ball out before Likely got a third foot down or did a football move. That was a tough call without great clarity from the NFL on what a catch is in 2025.

That drive ended in no points, because after the Likely mistake on first down, the Steelers stopped Henry twice, then Mark Andrews possibly got in the way of a Jackson pass on fourth down intended for DeAndre Hopkins in the back of the end zone with 2:22 left.

But given one more chance with 1:56 left and 74 yards to go, Jackson led a very poor two-minute drill, taking 69 seconds just to move the ball 8 yards. Reaching the Pittsburgh 30 with 9 seconds left, any shot at a Hail Mary was denied when Alex Highsmith sacked Jackson to end the game and give the Steelers a 7-6 record and first place.

The Ravens have struggled to play complementary football all season, and Sunday was no different. Pittsburgh finally won a big game this year without relying on a ton of turnovers on defense. Rodgers was excellent for three quarters, and if Likely wasn’t in a funk with the end zone, it may have been wasted again by the defense.

But the Steelers have been getting the best of this rivalry, especially when the games are at their closest. That’s also why I had full confidence in Pittsburgh still finishing with a winning record, because I knew they’d never get swept by Baltimore, especially not this Baltimore team.

Now we’ll see if they can build on this win and take advantage of a home game with Miami next week. Maybe even get a break with the Bengals possibly sweeping Baltimore on Sunday to create more separation.

But the sportsbooks have finally come around to making the Steelers the favorites (-160 at FanDuel) to win the AFC North over Baltimore (+170) and Cincinnati (+1300). There’s a reason almost every 1-5 team fails to come all the way back to make the playoffs.

The Ravens are just too mistake prone this year. Similar to the Chiefs in that regard, another team in the AFC they can’t seem to beat when they have to.

Bears at Packers: Ben Johnson Was Right Again

Ever since the Bears hired coach Ben Johnson, he has done an incredible job of saying the right things time and time again. He just probably wishes he wasn’t right when he said last week that the 9-3 Bears are winning in spite of their passing game with Caleb Williams.

On Sunday in Green Bay with the No. 1 seed on the line and the lead in the NFC North, Johnson was very prescient as Williams struggled mightily early on while Jordan Love had some key passes down the field for big plays (including third downs) that paced the Packers to numerous leads in a game they never trailed.

But Williams did make some of his best plays late, and even tied the game in the fourth quarter before the Packers marched for a game-winning touchdown. I predicted a 27-20 win by Green Bay, and they were up 28-21 late with Williams driving for what could have been his sixth comeback in the final 2:00 this year as you had to think Johnson probably goes for 2 on the road the way he is from the Dan Campbell school of thought.

But after the run got stuffed on 3rd-and-1, Williams blew a good play call with a bad throw on fourth down and it was intercepted in the end zone to end the game. Just like that, the Bears (9-4) fell from the No. 1 to the No. 7 seed.

These teams will meet again in 12 days, but Williams is going to need to be a lot more efficient if the Bears are going to get a split here.

Bengals at Bills: Mr. Perfect Until He Has to Be

I can say this about most quarterbacks, but Joe Burrow is actually more likeable than his annoying fans make him out to be. Watching him on those shows like Quarterback S2 or Hard Knocks In-Season with the AFC North, you can see he’s a football junkie, a Batman fan, and just wants to win games. This league is also in need of a pocket passer who can still frequently throw for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns without being a play-action merchant.

But where things get annoying with Burrow is the nonstop nicknames and the way the media has shoved him into conversations he doesn’t belong, or pretended that he’s a clutch player. I saw the “Joe Brrr” notification from the NFL app before Sunday’s snow game in Buffalo, and it was just earlier this week where I again pointed out that Burrow and his top wide receiver duo simply don’t win games in the clutch or shootouts despite being the most expensive trio in NFL history.

Burrow also has just one comeback win in the final 8:00 of a game in his career, and Sunday was no different. My other issues with Burrow stem from him being a sack merchant, often getting into trouble by looking for the big play. It should go against his nature as a perfectionist, which I think gets him into trouble in games where things don’t go well. He’ll let it snowball and not recover from a big mistake.

It all happened again on Sunday when Burrow went from playing a really fine game in Buffalo in the snow with four touchdowns on the first six drives. It was like he picked right up where he left off with his success against the Bills in 2022-23.

But one fateful pass from the Buffalo 33 with 5:35 left, leading 28-25, changed everything for the Bengals. Burrow tried to throw a quick pass, did a weird shot-put delivery on it, and Christian Benford was there for the 63-yard pick-six to put the Bills ahead 32-28.

Is Burrow so sick of me pointing out he has one comeback win in the last 8:00 that he tried to create a situation for himself to succeed? Then on the very next play, he got picked again on a battled ball at the line. The Bills took over at the Cincinnati 29, and of course Josh Allen, who got Dalton Kincaid back at a good time, was going to take advantage of the No. 32 defense on a short field by throwing another touchdown on fourth down.

Burrow answered quickly with his fourth touchdown pass to cut it to 39-34 with 2:13 left. That drive is another example of why stats that ignore the scoreboard show Burrow doing well in this situation when it was the two drives before this that mattered more when he had the picks.

But even after his defense sacked Allen to bring up 3rd-and-15, they gave up another 17-yard scramble to Allen, who also took off for a 40-yard touchdown earlier with inexplicably no defender in sight of his path to the end zone.

This was a very winnable game for the Bengals on the road to keep their season alive, but Burrow picked the worst time to make his worst play of the year. He crumbled instead of finishing the game, and given his history, it’s not that surprising.

He’s just not proven to be a closer yet, and this will be his third-straight missed postseason.

I still contend this is the worst Buffalo team since 2019, but if this is an AFC where they don’t have to worry about the Chiefs at all, don’t have to worry about going to Baltimore, and don’t have to worry about these Bengals, then Allen has no excuses left to not get to a Super Bowl.

Letting Drake Maye, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, or C.J. Stroud get there before Allen does would be disastrous to his legacy.

Colts at Jaguars: Indiana Is Cursed in 2025

I was all in on the Jaguars to win this one despite being a 1.5-point home underdog. But you have to see Daniel Jones tear his Achilles on a different leg than the one he had the fractured fibula with. I’m not a doctor, so I can’t comment if that may have led to this the way Tyrese Haliburton’s calf injury led to his Achilles in the NBA Finals, but it’s just been that kind of cursed year for Indiana sports teams. Caitlin Clark also had a season-ending groin injury in a year her Fever had a shot in the playoffs.

The Colts would have had a shot in this AFC if they were healthy, but between Jones going down and Sauce Gardner getting injured shortly after they traded for him, it’s been a brutal stretch for the Colts. From 7-1 to 8-5 and little hope with that tough schedule left.

Worse, they don’t even have a healthy (even if temporarily healthy) Anthony Richardson to go to and see if he can give them anything for the playoff run. They might have to snag Joe Flacco away from the Bengals somehow.

But give credit to the Jaguars. They scored a lot of points on short fields set up by the defense like they’ve been doing this year. I actually think they can get to 12-5 given the schedule, which includes another game with battered Indy.

Crazy how you can go from 7-1 and averaging over 3.0 points per drive to potentially finishing with a losing record and an offense that’s barely top 10, if that, when you consider the Colts have to play the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans.

Saints at Buccaneers: Tyler Shough Can Move Like That?

With all due respect to Taysom Hill, I don’t think your services are needed anymore in New Orleans. If Tyler Shough can move like that on his two rushing touchdowns in Tampa Bay, then there’s no reason he can’t keep the ball on some of those snaps they give to Hill.

Shough’s second touchdown run also completed the first game-winning drive of his NFL career as the Saints (+8.5) completed the 24-17 upset on the road despite the Bucs having more healthy weapons for Baker Mayfield, who struggled in this one.

But I would still argue Tampa Bay pissed this one away more than the Saints won it. Tampa Bay finished 2-of-7 on fourth down, so when you get 11 drives and end five of them on fourth down (plus one pick), that’s really brutal offense, and it’s not like these were 4th-and-desperate situations late in the game.

I don’t know if Todd Bowles wanted a bow with his points to take them, or if he thought this was the right strategy as these were the five fourth-down failures:

  • 1Q, tied 7-7, 4th-and-1 at NO 45: Bucky Irving lost 7 yards on a run.
  • 2Q, up 10-7, 4th-and-1 at NO 49: Tucker stuffed for no gain on a run.
  • 2Q, up 10-7, 4th-and-15 at NO 47: Mayfield incomplete pass (I guess they weren’t confident in the 65-yard field goal in the conditions)
  • 4Q, tied 17-17, 4th-and-2 at NO 46: Mayfield incomplete pass to Godwin (Saints drove for game-winning touchdown from there).
  • 4Q, down 24-20, 4th-and-4 at TB 26: Mayfield 3-yard pass to Cade Otton for a turnover on downs to end game.

The last one is obvious, the one before halftime makes sense given the field position, I guess. But those three short ones at midfield, out of field goal range, and not in a bad situation on the scoreboard? Might have been able to argue they should punt there and put the rookie QB on a long field.

The Buccaneers and Panthers are both 7-6 with two matchups to come. This thing is far from over in the NFC South if the Bucs are going to keep playing with their food like this.

Commanders at Vikings: For Who, For What?

I’ll never understand what the Commanders were doing with Jayden Daniels in 2025. He had a few injuries as a rookie, but his elbow injury this year was not necessary as it happened after Dan Quinn kept him in a blowout against Seattle far too long.

Then given this team was 3-9 and hadn’t won since Week 5, what’s the point of even playing him again this year? He returned Sunday, he was rusty against a complex defense, and he re-injured his elbow on an interception return play. Now they’ll probably sit him for the rest of the year, but he should have been on the bench in the Seattle blowout and this elbow stuff never should have happened.

You have to protect your best asset. I’m not sure Quinn makes it to 2026 as the defense didn’t get any better despite that being the side they needed to fix desperately. Now the offense is messed up as well.

Seahawks at Falcons: Road Warriors Strike Again

This was actually a 6-6 game at halftime before the Seahawks blew it open in the third quarter with Rashid Shaheed scoring his first Seattle touchdown on a 100-yard kickoff return, then a Bijan Robinson fumble led to the first of two JSN touchdown catches as the rout was on.

The Seahawks (10-3) have been strong on the road all year, and now they get to face the Colts without Daniel Jones before their huge Thursday night rematch with the Rams in Week 16 when they’ll have a chance to take the NFC West lead.

Broncos at Raiders: The Worst Beat of the Year

Given how horrible the Broncos were on offense in the 10-7 win against this team last month, you have to give them credit here. Granted, 7 of the 24 points were a punt return touchdown, but they only had 7 possessions in this game and they gained 81, 41, 47, 91, and 90 yards on the five drives that weren’t limited by the clock and situation at the end of each half. They were sustaining drives with ease.

Some bettors just wish they would have gained 4 more yards on their last snap, because that left enough time for the Raiders, who trailed 24-14 with as little as 0:05 left, get into field goal range after an absurd penalty for trying to stay on top of a receiver who was down extended the game one more down. Then Pete Carroll decided to kick the 46-yard field goal, it was good with 0:00 left, and the Raiders (+7.5) covered the spread in a ridiculous 24-17 final.

I’ve had a pretty good spread week (8-5 ATS), but that was definitely the worst beat of the season on one of these.

Rams at Cardinals: Someone’s Winning in Fantasy on These Cardinal Blowouts

You just know there’s someone out there winning their fantasy league or taking down DFS contests (they still run those, right?) by stacking Jacoby Brissett and Michael Wilson (11/142/2 on Sunday). All that sweet volume and very little real-life NFL value because they either get blown out like they did here to the Rams (45-17), or they come up short in the fourth quarter of a one-score loss.

But this one was the blowout as the Rams led 45-10 at one point. Big bounce-back effort after last week’s loss in Carolina.

Titans at Browns: Shedeur Gets Some Stats, Cam Ward Gets the Win

This Toilet Bowl between the Titans (1-11) and Browns (3-9) actually proved to be far more interesting and nuanced than most Week 14 games. I can’t believe I’m about to write as many words on a Week 14 game between these teams as I am.

It was in theory a matchup of what were supposed to be the top two quarterbacks in the 2025 draft before Shedeur Sanders fell to the fifth round. I knew he’d try to shine in this one against the worst team in football, and to some extent, he did. Sanders finished with 364 passing yards, 3 touchdown passes, 1 touchdown run, 1 interception, and he led a comeback attempt in the final 5:00 that came up a hideous 2-point conversion try short of tying the game.

Meanwhile, Cam Ward only completed 14-of-28 passes for 117 yards, 2 touchdowns, and one pick against that tough Cleveland defense. But Myles Garrett, much like last week against the 49ers, got the lone sack for the defense.

It was also another game where the rest of the team sold out the defense with poor field position as the Titans had touchdown drives of 53, 38, and 8 yards as well as a 6-yard field goal drive without a first down gained.

But late in the game with the Titans up 31-17 thanks to those short fields (and a big day for Tony Pollard with 161 yards and two scores), we saw the shortcomings of the new down 14 strategy that I was just questioning last week. What happens if a team misses both conversions and is still down 2 late? That’s what happened to Cleveland in large part because they called a weird trick play for the final one instead of letting Sanders do something more conventional.

Let’s just note that Cleveland scored that second touchdown with 1:03 left. That left plenty of time to recover an onside kick and win the field goal as I said teams will do in the NFL as  you can’t really time out when you get a touchdown. Then had the Browns made the first 2PC, if you score with 1:03 left, look at how much time that leaves the Titans to go get a game-winning field goal with the new kickoff rules and the improved range for kickers with the new k-balls. The same is true if they had only tied the game at 31.

So again, I understand why teams do the down 14 thing. I just don’t think it’s all that advantageous because of what it does to the game state. For one, I don’t like the prospects of having to convert a do-or-die 2PC at any point in the game, so I’d rather avoid that. Then if you get the first one and you’re down 6, that should trigger the opponent to try better to add to the lead or run out the clock than if they had the cushion of a 7-8 point lead. Then there’s the end-game scenario of taking a 1-point lead quite possibly with plenty of time for the other team to use 4-down football to set up a game-winning field goal.

Yeah, I’m just never going to be a big fan of that, and games like this make it look even less attractive to me. Going to overtime has never actually been less scary than it is now with the new rules there. There’s no real sudden death unless you majorly fuck up like a pick-six or safety on the first drive.

Alas, this was the Toilet Bowl, so it didn’t really matter what these teams did. Just a game with far more points – I believe the total closed at a season-low 33.0 – and intrigue than it ever deserved to have for Week 14.

Also, it’s going to make the Shedeur cult even crazier because he’s delivering the big plays they said he would in the NFL. Just don’t let them hear that some have been filled with YAC, or that he’s only done it against the two worst NFL teams this season (Vegas and Titans) and lost 26-8 to a San Francisco team that was missing its two best defenders.

Cults don’t like pesky facts like that.

Dolphins at Jets: The Streaks Continue

He didn’t have to do much in this one, but Tua Tagovailoa is now 7-0 as a starter against the Jets after the Dolphins quickly opened up a 21-0 lead and held on for the 34-10 win. The Jets were stuck playing UDFA rookie Brady Cook from Missouri after a Tyrod Taylor injury.

With the loss, the Jets (3-10) have been eliminated from the playoffs for the 15th season in a row, the longest active drought in the four major American sports leagues.

Next week: The Week 15 schedule is decent even if the island games are not. The Bucs need to pick things up at home against Atlanta on Thursday night. We’ll see a Baltimore-Cincy rematch from Thanksgiving that’s lost some luster with both losing Sunday. Chargers-Chiefs could be similar if the Chargers lose on Monday night. Bills-Patriots is the big one, and we’ll see if NE can win the AFC East or if Buffalo can try to repeat its 2021 success by coming back to beat them and eventually destroying them in the wild card.

Green Bay vs. Denver is decent for a non-conference game between possible No. 1 seeds. Lions at Rams might be more fun to watch for three quarters though. Colts should get rocked in Seattle. I’ll be writing this early while we’re stuck with Cowboys vs. Vikings on SNF. Steelers usually win at home on MNF, and Miami usually loses on the road under McDaniel to .500+ teams, but we’ll see how that one goes to end the week now that the Steelers will get props this week instead of being in that underdog role.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 6

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I don’t think Week 6 changes the 2025 NFL narrative too much, though we’ll see what the injury news is on Puka Nacua. But the 49ers are so banged up that it may not matter as much as the Seahawks and Rams won’t meet until November 16.

The Chiefs are still the class of the AFC West. The Jets and Dolphins still suck. The Cowboys still can’t play defense. The AFC North, save for Pittsburgh, still can’t win. The Colts are still scoring efficiently as Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold keep slinging it. The Packers still can’t cover the spread against Joe Flacco.

The change may be coming in the NFC East as the Eagles just look offensively lost, which may not come as a surprise when you see how Spencer Rattler is competing against superior teams in Kellen Moore’s offense.

Coaching matters. Just ask UCLA and Penn State.

After last week’s brutal picks had me riding a 4-11 ML streak going into yesterday, I rebounded nicely with 11-1 SU and 7-4 ATS on Sunday. There were only seven games with a comeback opportunity with a good MNF doubleheader still to come.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Lions at Chiefs: Look Who’s Still the Team to Beat

Ever since the second half of Week 3 against the Giants, the Chiefs have played offense at an elite level that you can put up there with anything they did in 2018-24. If teams wanted to humble this team, they needed to do it now when Rashee Rice was suspended these first six games.

Instead, you’re getting MVP-caliber play from Mahomes, who trusts his offensive line and receivers again, and the defense is feeding off of that as the Chiefs are winning games by two touchdowns or more this year instead of relying on one-score grinds.

Of course, the Chiefs can’t play a game in prime time without people wanting to turn it into an officiating controversy. The most notable thing about the officiating in Sunday night’s game was the lack of it.

After 13 penalties for 109 yards in Jacksonville, the Chiefs had zero accepted penalties in this game. Zero. You might say that sounds fishy, but after such an undisciplined performance on Monday, it’s safe to say they made it a point of emphasis in a very important game to not fall to 2-4.

There have also been 91 instances since 1970 of an NFL team having 0 penalties, so while it is very uncommon, it’s not unprecedented. The Lions only had four penalties in the game, so the refs were letting them play for the most part.

In fact, it’s easy to recall all 4 accepted penalties in the game on Detroit:

  • The first was the illegal motion on Jared Goff’s touchdown reception on the opening drive. The dynamics of how that was called appeared a little off, but the play wasn’t officially reviewed, and they got it right.
  • That led to a delay of game as the Lions were frustrated having to settle for a field goal.
  • The third penalty was DPI after Rock Ya-Sin grabbed Travis Kelce on the collar on a big 3rd-and-10 in the second quarter.
  • The fourth penalty was roughing the passer on Aidan Hutchinson for a clear late hit.

Early on, the Lions were hurting themselves with mistakes like the Goff illegal motion, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s drop, and a bad drive to end the half. But in the second half, the defense was legitimately stopping the No. 1 scoring offense, containing the runs that worked early, and limiting YAC for St. Brown and company. Detroit’s only score of the half was a brilliant catch by Sam LaPorta for a touchdown.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are going to be hard to beat if they’re scoring 30 points on 7 drives like they did here. Andy Reid seemed to wise up on some 4th-down punts this year by going for it a few times against an elite scoring machine like Detroit, which helped.

Mahomes played another very sharp game, and while the Lions were down multiple corners, he largely attacked their linebackers in coverage underneath. Tyquan Thonrton, their new deep threat, didn’t even have a target as the Chiefs mostly avoided playing 3-4 WR sets, keeping Detroit in base defense. That’s a nice little wrinkle you wouldn’t expect with the Lions down corners.

The Chiefs were also without left tackle Justin Simmons, who didn’t make the trip for personal reasons. But they paid Jaylon Moore good money to ride the bench, so he stepped in admirably at left tackle. Only glaring mistake was a late sack he gave up, but the game was in hand by then.

I think Goff faded after a good start, and Dan Campbell made one of his dumbest coaching calls ever on the final drive. Yes, they needed 2 touchdowns with an onside kick recovery, so it was pure miracle territory. But how do you get a 2nd-and-1 with 2:14 left and throw three incomplete passes? I can see doing it once, but that close to the 2-minute warning where you know the clock will stop, just run the god damn ball, get your yard, and start with a new set of downs with 2:00 left. That was coaching malpractice on Campbell’s part.

And yes, I’m extra pissed since I lost out on $270 as a parlay needed just 5 more yards from St. Brown. Just horrible execution from Detroit on that last drive.

But the Chiefs get to 3-3 without Rice and after facing the toughest part of their schedule. They still have a lot of playoff-caliber opponents left on the schedule, but the first six games were always the toughest with the Chargers, Eagles, Ravens, Lions, and no Rice for any of them.

If you look around the league at the way no one is really standing out – Broncos and Chargers barely squeaked by the awful Jets and Dolphins – in either conference, then there’s no reason not to think the Chiefs are still the team to beat in January.

If the defense can step up and hold a team like Detroit to 17 points with the offense playing this efficiently even before Rice is back, then good luck to the rest of the league from stopping another Super Bowl berth.

Only downside is Harrison Butker continues to suck, and the Chiefs still haven’t won a one-score game this season. But that’ll come eventually.

The Chiefs are still the Chiefs.

49ers at Buccaneers: Infirmary Bowl

I know there’s no such thing as a fully-healthy team in the NFL in Week 6, but JFC, these teams could have at least a little better injury luck than this. The Buccaneers didn’t have their top two wideouts (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin), starting running back (Bucky Irving), and rookie sensation Emeka Egbuka left the game early with a hamstring injury.

The 49ers were still without Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle, and Nick Bosa. They lost All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner for the season in this game with a dislocated ankle, which his terrible to see as I was just saying how impressive he was on the ManningCast. Hate to see a defense that’s now without its two best players.

In the end, the Bucs handled their injuries better as they have Baker Mayfield while the 49ers have Mac Jones. Sure, Jones has played better this year under Kyle Shanahan even without a full arsenal of weapons. But his first pass of the day should have been a pick-six if the defender could ever get up instead of falling over three times. That led to a 12-yard touchdown drive for the Bucs, who didn’t trail in the final 35 minutes.

Tampa also has the deepest receiving room in the NFL. I never even heard of Kameron Johnson, who had one target in his career before Sunday and no catches in the NFL, but there he was catching a 34-yard touchdown. Then after Baker Mayfield made one of his classic scrambles to convert a 3rd-and-14, a 7th-round rookie named Tez Johnson made a great fingertips catch for a 45-yard touchdown to give the Bucs a 27-19 lead going into the fourth quarter.

These teams were both 4-1 in close games, and this one would also go to the fourth quarter with a one-score deficit. It just didn’t end as dramatically because the 49ers couldn’t come close to scoring the game-tying touchdown. Lavonte David took down Jones on a big 3rd-and-11 sack.

Then after a stopped QB sneak and false start, Jones was picked on a 4th-and-5 with 5:43 left. The Bucs turned that into a 45-yard field goal after Chase McLaughlin redeemed himself for an earlier miss in the quarter. Down 30-19, the 49ers went 4-and-out to end this one.

Interesting to see where these teams go from here. It feels like the injuries are piling up for the 49ers and they won’t be able to recover for a Super Bowl run. But it also feels like Tampa has used up a lot of its late-game magic already for one season and will need to play better once it could ever get its wide receivers back healthy.

But the injuries have been a hell of a thing to watch with these teams.

Rams at Ravens: At What Point Do You Panic?

If I was a fan of the Baltimore Ravens (1-5), I think this game would have pissed me off more than the last few when they got their asses handed to them. They teased us on Sunday that they could win this game against the Rams, who again were underachieving in a game.

The defense actually showed up for Baltimore this week. Sure, it helps when Puka Nacua gets injured and the Rams can’t make simple field goals, but they held them to 3.2 YPC and Stafford only passed for 181 yards with an early strip-sack fumble.

They got 122 rushing yards from Derrick Henry, who was more of the focal point as he needed to be in Lamar Jackson’s absence. But Zay Flowers was a double agent as many of his targets and touches led to disasters for the Ravens, including a pick, an incomplete 4th-and-3 pass, and two fumbles.

This game was lost in that 7:00 middle between the halves. The Tush Push with Mark Andrews didn’t work twice, so the Ravens ran Henry on 4th-and-goal at the 1 and were stuffed, keeping the score tied at 3. Then after the Rams got a touchdown, Flowers fumbled a completion, setting up the Rams for a 21-yard touchdown drive and 17-3 lead. No more points were scored in the final 25 minutes, which is hard to believe.

Then on a first down nearing the red zone, the Ravens had another fumble that gets charged to Cooper Rush, but it was really on Flowers again for not securing the ball that was meant to be his run.

It was curious timing, but the Ravens benched Rush on the next drive for Tyler Huntley, who has experience in this system and more mobility to do more Lamar-like things. Granted, you could argue Rush never should have been in Baltimore as he doesn’t fit their normal offense like Huntley or other backups they’ve had can. So, that was always a weird choice to go with him as Lamar’s main backup.

Just as it was weird for Huntley to take over when he did after Flowers screwed up again. But it still didn’t result in any more points. Two long drives from Huntley just ended in the Ravens turning it over on downs in their latest loss.

Few teams have ever needed a bye week more than Baltimore, and Jackson should be back. They finally have fallen behind the Steelers for the AFC North odds, but it’s probably closer than you think. Sure, they have two head-to-head meetings left, but the Ravens haven’t swept Pittsburgh since 2019, and they have been swept by the Steelers multiple times since.

It’s not looking good for Baltimore fans as this team is finding ways to screw up games long before January this year.

Seahawks at Jaguars: When Two Receivers Don’t Beat One

I picked Seattle (-1.5) to win this game on the road because I thought the Jaguars would be a bit flat after Monday night’s emotional win over Kansas City, and that would negate the early body clock/travel aspect for the Seahawks. I also just think Sam Darnold is playing better football than Trevor Lawrence, and Mike Macdonald’s defensive system is more sustainable than the Jaguars relying on takeaways.

That basically played out here, but one thing I got wrong so far about these teams this year is their wide receiver play. I thought with Liam Coen coming to Jacksonville, he could get Lawrence playing well with his wide receiver duo of Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. Well, Thomas only scored his first touchdown catch on Sunday, and Hunter had 15 yards on 4 catches.

Meanwhile, I thought Jaxon Smith-Njigba was a possession receiver, someone who would average about 11 YPC and be a downgrade for Darnold as his WR1 after he played with Justin Jefferson last year in Minnesota, or how he could have had DK Metcalf instead in this role. But JSN has been incredible as a one-man show at times as he had 162 yards in this game and a touchdown.

However, in such a low-scoring game (20-12), the Jaguars certainly had their chances. But Thomas had a huge drop on third down with 9:17 left when the Jaguars trailed 20-12. The Jaguars never really got a better look at a score than that play after their last two drives failed and ended in punts.

After Lawrence’s 7th sack brought up 4th-and-18 at their own 28, they had no choice but to punt in an 8-point game with 3:00 left. But one deep ball from Darnold to Barner for 61 yards flipped field position and basically should have ended the game as you knew Seattle could take an 11-point lead. They eventually did, but a defensive holding penalty on the field goal (rarely see that) ended the game as the Seahawks just ran the clock out with the automatic first down.

Good win for the Seahawks while the Jaguars (4-2) are still a work in progress under Coen.

Chargers at Dolphins: Mike McDaniel About to Do ALL the Cocaine

The Miami defense is a great way for a struggling offense like the Chargers to get on track. You just didn’t expect the LA defense to blow a 26-13 lead in the fourth quarter, because that’s supposed to be the silliness that Jim Harbaugh eliminates for the Chargers.

But it happened after Tua found Darren Waller wide open for a 7-yard touchdown to take a 27-26 lead with 0:46 left. Fortunately, the Chargers had a good kick return and timeout to answer it, and Justin Herbert made a contender for the play of the year to Ladd McConkey, who did his part with the YAC after Herbert’s great display of strength to avoid the sack that would have been crippling:

That made the field goal possible, and Cameron Dicker made it from 33 yards out for the 29-27 win. That’s the third blown lead for the Dolphins this season.

Probably too early to call it a season saver for the Chargers (4-2), but they have some tough games coming up with the Colts and Vikings (maybe/maybe not), so they couldn’t afford to lose a third straight to a team like the Dolphins.

Cardinals at Colts: QB Controversy in Arizona?

Maybe being back in Indy with that awful sunshine spotting the field helped him, but Jacoby Brissett seemed pretty comfortable for a guy making his first start with Arizona for an injured Kyler Murray. Brissett threw for 320 yards, 2 touchdowns, and the Cardinals had a 27-24 lead in the fourth quarter.

That’s the kind of road game you almost never see Murray have, especially post-ACL. But it wasn’t enough as the Colts still scored enough in the end behind Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor. The Colts did have a few more stops than usual this week, but they still scored on their first three second-half possessions, including Taylor’s game-winning touchdown run with 4:32 left.

One thing about Brissett is he was always dreadful at game-winning drives (7-23, .233), and this one didn’t work either. It did get to the Indy 9, but the defense stopped Brissett on three straight plays.

A solid win for the Colts. You can’t compare beating the Cardinals to facing the pressure of a Buffalo or Kansas City in January, which Jones will have to step up to if he wants to get to the Super Bowl. But every win like this helps build some confidence that they can execute in those situations.

Browns at Steelers: Same Old Steelers (Or Not?)

Same Old Steelers could refer to beating Cleveland at home in the regular season as they have every year since 2003. It could also refer to beating up on a random rookie quarterback as they sacked Dillon Gabriel six times and held him to 7.6 yards per completion and 9 points.

But maybe the real test of Same Old Steelers is to see if they follow this game up with a stinker in Cincinnati this Thursday night when they have a chance to open up a 5-1 record in this AFC North race that has gotten incredibly one-sided these last two weeks. Since Pittsburgh’s bye last week, the rest of the AFC North is 0-6.

As for this game, I think Aaron Rodgers missed a few throws you’d expect him to make to big, open targets while still throwing an incredible touchdown to Heyward. The big number for Rodgers was “0” in the sacks department as Myles Garrett and company came up empty while the Steelers feasted on the rookie. There’s your main difference in this game.

Bengals at Packers: I Guess Green Bay Can’t Beat Joe Flacco AND the Spread This Year

The rest of the 2025 NFL season should just be Joe Flacco hopping from team to team to start against the Green Bay Packers. See if they can ever make a double-digit lead hold up against him.

Flacco was about as ineffective early as you’d expect from someone who was traded to the team on Tuesday and hasn’t played for this staff before. But the Packers still couldn’t blow the game wide open because of a bad Jordan Love interception on the opening drive. Meanwhile, Flacco threw 45 passes with zero picks and only one sack behind that line. I’m shocked at that.

The Bengals were also in this game in the second half. They scored on three straight possessions, and it would have been four if not for a missed 56-yard field goal in the 27-18 final. But they put the pressure on Green Bay to score three times in a row too to maintain that two-possession lead.

So, I’d say good on Flacco to make the team competitive and not sink the Bengals the way Browning did last week. Do I think it’s a season-saving move? No, I still don’t. But maybe we are having too high expectations on the Packers after those first two weeks. The defense isn’t that otherworldly if they can’t do better than this against Flacco on a short week to learn his new offense.

Patriots at Saints: Making It Look Big Easy

Not much to say here other than I respect the job Kellen Moore is doing with the Saints for another competitive effort where they came up a little short against a better team. Drake Maye had another efficient game, and some of his best throws were wiped out by penalties too.

But maybe the Patriots are back when they’re creating fumbles at midfield in one-score games in the fourth quarter. This time it was TE Juwan Johnson coughing up the ball on a potential go-ahead drive.

Cowboys at Panthers: Rico Dowdle Revenge Game Indeed

I never had any strong opinions about whether the Cowboys should have kept RB Rico Dowdle for 2025. He did fine last year in a lost cause season for Dallas. He’s been better than post-injury Javonte Williams the last few years. But on Sunday, he sure made his point in one of the ultimate revenge games as Dowdle totaled 239 yards from scrimmage and scored a long touchdown catch to help the Panthers upset Dallas 30-27.

Dak Prescott played a great game with zero help from the run (17 carries for 32 yards). But his last two drives did not deliver, and when you’re trying to win some games and get in the MVP race, you have to do better than misfiring in the red zone multiple times and then throwing screens to go backwards. Seriously, Dak went 3-of-3 for minus-8 yards on his last possession – three failed completions.

But the defense must do better than letting the Panthers take off the final 6:07 on the clock to kick a game-winning field goal. They had a chance to go three-and-out right away on defense, but the Cowboys were penalized for defensive pass interference to extend the drive. Hunter Renfrow had a clutch catch on 4th-and-4, a ballsy call by Dave Canales to go for it with 2:31 left.

That put the Cowboys in a bind, and the Panthers ran the clock down to kick a 33-yard field goal. I’m still not sure if the Panthers (3-3) are any good since I’m not even sure they’ve played a team yet that is going to the playoffs this season. But I do know that Dallas defense is terrible, and that’s the predicament they put themselves in with the Parsons trade.

But what a game and moment for Dowdle. This is why you don’t necessarily need to pay someone like Chuba Hubbard when backs come and go all the time. At least, they do for most teams. The Cowboys haven’t done the best job replacing Tony Pollard.

Titans at Raiders: Trying to Set a Strip-Sack Record

I swear every time RedZone cut to this game some quarterback was getting strip-sacked or being reviewed for a strip-sack. In the end, Cam Ward fumbled twice to go with a pick. I thought Geno Smith would be sharper than this, but maybe Brock Bowers means more to this passing game than expected.

One of those Ward strip-sacks set up a 2-yard touchdown drive for the Raiders, so this was easy street for Vegas to get back in the win column. The Titans are quite arguably worse this season than last year with Will Levis.

Jets vs. Broncos: London Snooze

It was almost 8:00 AM ET on Sunday when I was still awake, trying to fall asleep. So, when my alarm went off at 11:05 and I saw the halftime score of this shit game in London, I hit the snooze for another 45 minutes. Caught most of the fourth quarter and couldn’t believe that Sean Payton was about to blow a game to this team after a safety provided a little 11-10 edge for the Jets.

But sure enough, that pass rush saved the day for Denver after the offense managed a go-ahead field goal drive and 13-11 lead. More accurately, Justin Fields’ terrible ability to get rid of the ball in a timely manner did him in as he never got the passing game going, and he took 9 sacks. I don’ t think the last 3 were necessarily his fault as they engulfed him quickly, but he never had an answer for how to attack a defense with talent at each level.

The Jets finished with -10 net passing yards, which is a great example of why you have to account for sack yardage. Do you know how stupid it would sound to say Fields accounted for 92% of his team’s yards in this game if we just ignored the sacks were charged to him?

Nine sacks, nine completions, and 2-15 on third down. Pathetic output as the Jets were held to 82 total yards. Fields already had that game against Buffalo where he had 3 completions while playing into the fourth quarter. This was actually worse.

I don’t know how you can continue playing him at quarterback if you’re Aaron Glenn, who did technically blow his third fourth-quarter lead in six games this season. The only good news is the Jets finally got a takeaway on the third play of the game, a Troy Franklin fumble recovery.

However, that just further shows how pathetic Fields was. Of the 11 points scored by the Jets, 2 were on a safety, 3 were on a 3-yard drive set up by the fumble, and 3 more were set up on a 1-yard drive after a 72-yard kick return. Even their only legitimate scoring drive started at their own 43 after a good kick return to start the second half.

Let’s stop pretending Fields can do this job. Maybe if he sits for years like Geno Smith, he can make it somewhere else down the road, but it’s not happening with the Jets.

Next week: Steelers-Bengals on TNF sounds like a classic upset spot for Tomlin vs. Flacco. Rams-Jaguars is the best Sunday morning international game yet. Maybe I’ll get up a little earlier for that. Eagles-Vikings could be interesting as I’d actually like to see it be a Carson Wentz Revenge Game. Not sure we’ll get that though. Giants-Denver is suddenly more interesting with the run-based offense the Giants have now with their rookies.

Colts-Chargers sounds fun. Commanders-Cowboys could be a shootout. Falcons-49ers is a bold choice for SNF. But MNF is really where it’s at with Lions-Bucs and Seahawks-Texans, and they’re played in different windows to boot, which is nice. I wish tonight was set up that way.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Conference Championship Games

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I said Sunday was going to be a history-making day in the NFL and it absolutely was. We’re already seeing history in the Super Bowl as Chiefs vs. Eagles will be the first ever AFC vs. NFC matchup to happen in four consecutive seasons (2021-24) thanks to two Super Bowl matchups.

But how about the other history we were tracking?

  • The Chiefs are the first team to reach the Super Bowl after repeating, replacing the 1990 49ers as the closest to ever complete a Super Bowl three-peat.
  • After an early fumble, the Chiefs’ record streak of games without a turnover was snapped at eight.
  • The Chiefs have won 17 straight one-score games now (NFL record).
  • Even though the Bills started the game with two near interceptions and fumbled the ball four times, they finished with no giveaways, meaning they had just 8 turnovers in a 20-game season (NFL record for any season and any 20-game span).
  • The Bills now hold the NFL record for 22 straight games without losing the turnover battle. They were previously tied with the 1950s Rams at 21 games.
  • The Five-Year Rule lives on as Sean McDermott and Josh Allen will not be winning a Super Bowl in Year 7 together, and now Allen will have to try matching Peyton Manning as the only Super Bowl-winning quarterback who needed more than five postseasons to reach a Super Bowl.
  • Jayden Daniels did not become the first rookie quarterback to reach the Super Bowl, but the 2024 Commanders are the only team to ever score at least 18 points in 20 consecutive games in one season.

I would have loved a Daniels vs. Mahomes Super Bowl, but all things considered, Chiefs vs. Eagles is the best possible matchup this season could have produced in Super Bowl LIX. You get the three-peat against the team the title reign started against two years ago in Super Bowl LVII. These have been the best teams in their respective conference over the last three years, and there’s the added twist of Saquon Barkley, who will have his 28th birthday on Super Bowl Sunday.

I’m pleased with the outcome, but I sure as hell wanted a better game early in Philly. At least we got a classic in Kansas City again.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Chiefs: Four Falls of Buffalo Gets a Sequel

It has to be frustrating to have a great team and still come up short because there’s always someone that is a little better. This happened to the Buffalo Bills when they lost four straight Super Bowls in 1990-93 with the NFC teams easily getting the best of them in the last three games before the salary cap was implemented in 1994.

They did a documentary on those losses called Four Falls of Buffalo for 30 for 30. But we might actually need a sequel as Buffalo’s 0-4 mark in the playoffs against the Kansas City Chiefs is arguably more infuriating since the games were usually closer than those Super Bowl losses. Sure, they haven’t been Super Bowls, but Buffalo damn well may have gone the distance in 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024 had it not been for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

How do you top a team that’s won 17 straight one-score games? How do you overcome a quarterback who is 17-3 in the playoffs and always seems to shred your defense no matter how well you do in the regular season? Remember, the Bills have won four years in a row in the regular season against the Chiefs, including multiple games in Arrowhead.

Yet, here we are again with the Bills coming up short in a 32-29 classic that again went down to the wire. I think I’ll jump around some different storylines instead of doing a sequential recap.

Chiefs Save Their Best for the Playoffs Again

The Chiefs hadn’t scored 21 points in any half all season, and yet they did it in this game. The Chiefs hadn’t scored more than 30 points in any of their last 28 games. They hadn’t topped 31 points in their last 36 games, and yet they scored 32 in this game on just nine drives, and they ran out the clock on that final possession.

It just seems like no matter what the Chiefs do against Buffalo in the regular season, they’re able to turn it on in the playoffs against Sean McDermott’s defense.

The versatility of this team is key. In Week 11 in Buffalo, Mahomes never ran the ball once. In this game, his mobility was apparent from the opening drive, and the Chiefs had great success with RPOs – save for one fumbled exchange between Mahomes and Pacheco that broke the team’s record streak without a giveaway – as Mahomes read the field well the whole game with quick decisions.

But his legs were key again with over 40 rushing yards, two touchdowns scored, and he made it look effortless. Kansas City was all in on Travis Kelce against Houston, but he only had 2 catches for 19 yards in this game, shades of what the Bills did to him in Week 11. Instead, Mahomes found JuJu for 60  yards on the offense’s two longest plays that were both quick decisions over the middle. Even Samaje Perine had the game’s fifth-longest gain (17 yards) to put the game away on third-and-long in the 4-minute offense.

The Chiefs just do whatever is necessary to win the style of game they find themselves in. The people who said this team couldn’t win a shootout with Buffalo this year were wrong again. The Chiefs tend to dictate how these games go. Not Buffalo.

Can’t Ever Have Enough Good Corners

Injuries will probably come up as an excuse again for why McDermott’s defense failed and made the Chiefs look greater than usual. They were without safety Taylor Rapp, but I don’t remember when he turned into Ed Reed incarnate.

Then there’s the case of corner Christian Benford. He was carted off with a concussion in last week’s game. You know what the NFL is like in the post-2022 Tua Tagovailoa concussion protocol era. If you see a player that bad off after a concussion on a Sunday, he shouldn’t be playing the next Sunday.

But the Bills somehow got him on the field for this game, and they may have jeopardized his chances to get back on one any time soon. He took a hit to the head (friendly fire) early in the game and had to be carted off again, even strapped down with the seatbelt in the cart. It was a scary sight and something that should get a third-party investigation into the handling of clearing him.

With Benford out early, the Bills were stuck playing Kaiir Elam for more snaps, and the Chiefs attacked him frequently as teams often do when this happens to a secondary.

But I’m not going to feel bad for Buffalo here, because it’s a lesson that you can never have enough good corners. Elam is not a street free agent they signed a week ago for depth either. They used a 2022 first-round pick on this guy just two picks after the Chiefs drafted Trent McDuffie. Advantage Chiefs. Elam hasn’t been good and he didn’t help this game when they needed him to come up big.

Xavier Worthy: My Bad

Speaking of Kansas City draft wins over Buffalo, I have to eat some crow on Xavier Worthy. While I still believe Ladd McConkey would have been more unstoppable in this offense, Worthy has developed into a solid player who is more than just a gimmicky speed and gadget player. He attacks the ball down the field now, and he showed his skills on a 26-yard grab in the second quarter to prevent an interception and he also scored a touchdown on a very fine night where the veterans (Kelce, Hopkins, Hollywood) didn’t do much.

Of course, people called the 26-yard catch a controversial call for the Chiefs. First, there was a holding penalty on the Bills, so it would have been a first down anyway. Second, I think they got the call right with the rule change years ago that the ball is allowed to touch the ground as long as you maintain control. I don’t see where Worthy ever lost control of it as he gained possession from the DB, and in that situation, the offense gets the catch. Legit call.

But let’s say they called it incomplete. Then the Chiefs still have a first down at the Buffalo 24 with under 3:00 left in the half. Who’s to say they still don’t score a touchdown on that drive with the way they were going up and down the field all night? They may have even scored it with less than 1:55 left like they did, and that would leave less time for the touchdown that the Bills got to make it 21-16 going into halftime.

That sequence was also amusing as the Bills took the extra point off the board to go for a 2-point conversion from the 1-yard line. I don’t mind the decision to go after the penalty. But the Chiefs plugged the gap on the left where they knew Allen was going to run, and they stopped the play.

Erratic Allen Not So Automatic on the Sneak

I don’t think the game does much of anything to change the legacy for Josh Allen. He came in winless against the Chiefs in the playoffs with some close calls, and he went out winless with another close call in a game he briefly had a fourth-quarter lead in.

There were enough good plays to say he battled and gave them a chance, and he didn’t make a huge mistake with the game on the line. But it was far from his best game against the Chiefs, and he started it poorly with two throws that could have been intercepted on the opening drive alone.

Allen also fumbled 3 times on the night, but somehow the Bills recovered all 5 fumbles in this game (4 of their own, one unforced error by the Chiefs on the RPO). They’ll finish the season +17 in fumbles, an absurd number that has to regress next year.

But I did get the sense early that Allen was nervous in the biggest game of his career. There was a three-and-out in the second quarter before the big Worthy catch where Allen threw a poor 2nd-and-10 pass to Curis Samuel, which was dropped as he had to reach down to get it. He should have caught it, but if Allen threw it in stride, that’s a huge gain. Big miss there.

But Allen’s bread and butter on the short-yardage run was gone in this game. In fact, he was stuffed 3 times on crucial sneak plays, the most in any game since 2016.

Remember, the Ravens stuffed him last week on a big third down when he considered pitching the ball back on the play. Buffalo fans assured me Allen was automatic in these spots, but this postseason paints a different story. Incredible job by the Chiefs on defense on those plays.

The big one came on 4th-and-1 at the Kansas City 41 with the Bills up 22-21 with 13:01 left to play. Allen tried to go left on the Tush Push, but the Chiefs stood him up and it was ruled short on the field. The ruling on the field stood after video review with a turnover on downs.

I think what happened here is the Chiefs were saved by Chris Jones obstructing the view of the ball by standing right down the camera line from the key angle. You might be able to reasonably conclude that Allen probably had the ball to the 40, but there’s no visual evidence that he had the ball break that line. You see Allen but not the ball on the most shared shot of this.

Tough break for the Bills, but they were terrible on those short-yardage runs all night. I’m also not sure if James Cook was injured or what, but he deserved more than 13 carries after looking good in the second half.

The Chiefs Are Closers

After taking over on the 4th-and-1 stop, the Chiefs were surgical on another touchdown drive to regain a 29-22 lead after converting their first 2-point conversion of the season if I heard correctly.

But the Chiefs had some defensive lapses in this one despite playing well at times. They let Mack Hollins beat them deep a few times, and that led to another touchdown on a 4th-down play where Samuel was left wide open in the end zone to tie the game at 29.

The Chiefs were marching right into a first-and-goal, and just when you thought we’d see a flurry of a finish like the 13 Second Game, the Bills sacked Mahomes immediately on a first-and-goal, causing a failure on that revamped left side of the line.

Was that finally going to catch up to the Chiefs? Then with Harrison Butker coming out for a 35-yard field goal with 3:37 left, I jokingly predicted the other day he’d miss a 35-yard field goal. That was in my head for sure at the time as I could see him missing and the Bills making on the other end with 0:00 left to win 32-29.

But Butker was perfect on the kick, right down the middle. While this would have been a great time for the Chiefs to force the first non-QB fumble of the season for Buffalo (or any turnover), they instead cranked up the heat on 4th-and-5. Spagnuolo brought a blitz and Allen did his best to throw up a pass for Dalton Kincaid. He absolutely had a shot at a diving catch that could have lived in playoff lore, but instead he couldn’t make this play:

There was still 1:54 left, and Pacheco ran out of bounds to stop the clock on a nice 2nd-down pass from the Chiefs for a first down. But it got to 3rd-and-9 at the Buffalo 35, which is no man’s land in this situation with 1:35 left. Do you risk an incompletion to stop the clock? Risk a sack to lose the FG opportunity? Do you even want to kick the FG and go up 6 with that much time left?

Tough call, but the Chiefs made the right call, and Mahomes found Samaje Perine for a 17-yard gain out in the flat to send the Chiefs right back to the Super Bowl for an unprecedented three-peat opportunity.

That whole drive I was waiting for a running back to fumble to recreate the 1990 Roger Craig fumble moment in San Francisco that led to New York’s upset win. With the way Buffalo’s fumble luck was in 2024, you never know. But the Chiefs didn’t stumble, and they again put a team away in a one-score game for the 17th time in a row.

Unbelievable stuff from a historic team that is one win away from the ultimate history. Season on the line, there’s no quarterback you want more than Mahomes.

Final Thoughts

We’ve reached the end of our show where I guess I’m supposed to jump into my Bill Maher-style monologue (less smarmy about it) where I pat myself on the back for being right about Buffalo still not having what it takes to get over the Kansas City hump in the AFC.

And you’re probably wondering how I could say that when I picked the Bills to win 27-24 the night before. Yeah, but if you look closely, I also spelled out “THREEPEAT” with the first letter of each paragraph.

I did a reverse jinx on Buffalo, something I’ve been doing for 18 years (ever since it worked for the 2006 AFC Championship Game) because I grew tired of picking the team I wanted to win and seeing them lose the game. So, I get to either enjoy a correct prediction or enjoy the actual outcome to games like this.

I also said this was a coin-flip game, and it basically was – tied  at 29 with 6:15 left. As usual, the Chiefs closed, and the Bills didn’t make the plays to win the game or force overtime.

Buffalo had a very good year, but I trust my eyes, and I trust my numbers. Earlier this week, I introduced some numbers on my Fraud Alert metric, which I’ll be sharing more of before the Super Bowl. It had the Bills as by far the No. 1 misleading team this year based on turnover margin, field position, and strength of schedule. The Chiefs were only 17th, producing one of the biggest mismatches in my Fraud Alert Rating (FAR) system since 2002.

Well, I can tell you now that the teams with the higher FAR in the 11 biggest mismatches since 2002 are now 2-9 in the playoff meetings. Even better, I can tell you that in the 21 playoff games since 2002 with a spread of 0-to-2 points, the team with the higher FAR is now 6-15 (.286). That’s right. The team with the higher fraud alert won just 28.6% of the playoff games with the tiniest spreads, and you better believe this applies to Super Bowl LIX too.

When Bills fans tried to pump up Josh Allen by telling me that Mack Hollins is his WR1 (he wasn’t but he was better than Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman on Sunday)), I laughed it off, thinking maybe that’s a bad thing if you’re relying on Mack Hollins to be a big producer in your offense. Maybe it’s a bad thing that Dalton Kincaid’s numbers regressed so badly in his second year, or that Cooper hasn’t really done much since the trade.

Maybe “beating both No. 1 seeds” isn’t all it’s cracked up to be when you’re only 2-3 against playoff teams in the regular season.

Maybe “scoring 30 in regulation” as they liked to bring up as a shot at the Chiefs doesn’t mean much if you can’t keep most good teams under 30 points. Maybe it doesn’t mean much if you’re scoring 30+ against the likes of the Titans, Jaguars, Jets, Colts, and Dolphins.

Maybe it’s not a good thing if your team doesn’t have a single fourth-quarter comeback win this season, nor is it a bad thing that the Chiefs now have six of them as Mahomes tied the single-season record with his eighth game-winning drive Sunday. Still think they’re the 2022 Vikings?

Your quarterback didn’t win MVP, your team didn’t get the top seed, and you didn’t beat the Chiefs again in the playoffs. Close but no cigar. Only Brady and Burrow have smoked that one for getting past the Chiefs in the playoffs.

I’ve said it would be statistically improbable for the likes of Allen and Lamar to never at least reach a Super Bowl. I stand by that. But at the same time, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say Allen and McDermott blew their best shot in 2021 because of 13 Seconds, and that should have been their Super Bowl year.

Instead, it’s set the AFC on this butterfly effect where we pretend the Bengals are the team to beat only to see them be irrelevant unless Lamar gets hurt, the Ravens always choke in the playoffs, and the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill, built up the defense, and keep winning one-score playoff games because Mahomes gets big moments out of JuJu, MVS, and some rookies.

Allen had his moment in 13 Seconds by finding Gabe Davis again, but the Bills still found a way to lose, and they frankly haven’t topped that moment in the playoffs ever since.

But that’s why Mahomes and the Chiefs are in their own tier, and the Bills are just the best-looking, ringless bridesmaid in the AFC.

Commanders at Eagles: Double Nickel Boys Run Wild on Washington

I’ll start by saying it’s almost impossible to beat these Eagles if the good version of Jalen Hurts shows up. I saw the knee bend against the Rams last week, and I thought that’d actually be problematic this week. Silly me. Hurts looked mobile and was as good as he’s been in any game this season.

Then when you throw in his receivers getting early production, Saquon Barkley hitting another 60-yard homerun on the first snap, and the Commanders fumbling it three times again just like they did in Week 16 to screw over their rookie quarterback, you end up with a 55-23 smackdown, the most points ever scored in a Conference Championship Game by one team.

I thought Jayden Daniels could be the one rookie who would get to a Super Bowl by producing a different outcome. In a way, he did stand out as he played better than any other rookie has in a conference championship game where rookies are now 0-6 since 1970. I hope he has more deep playoff runs in his future, because it would be insane if the closest he ever came was this year in a game where his defense allowed 7 rushing touchdowns and his skill guys put the ball on the ground three times early.

Daniels didn’t turn it over until he was down 25 points with 5:00 left. But the other Washington turnovers were very costly. Dyami Brown coughed up a fumble trying to get centimeters more YAC, leading to a short field and 14-3 lead for the Eagles. The Commanders could have scored before halftime to make it 20-20 or at least 20-15, but a fumbled kickoff led to another touchdown and 27-15 deficit at the half.

The real killer was the final minute of the third quarter. Washington was down 34-23 and driving at midfield with a first down. Austin Ekeler became the third skill player to put the ball on the ground for Washington as the Eagles are really good at forcing those fumbles. That led to the absurd sequence to start the fourth quarter of six straight attempts to do the Tush Push from the 1-yard line finally resulted in a touchdown run for Hurts, who scored three times just like Barkley on the day.

But it was the announcement that the refs could award a touchdown to Philadelphia if the Commanders kept jumping over the line before the snap in their effort to go all Troy Polamalu and stop the Tush Push.

I mean, that’s probably not a bad rule to have in case of emergency, but the whole thing looked ridiculous and I have really come to despite the Tush Push. Just get rid of it already and go back to normal quarterback sneaks. Washington should have called the refs’ bluff too —  go figure, it was Ed Hochuli’s son – and made them award the Eagles a touchdown. I’d love to see that in the stat sheet and how that dynamic works.

But yeah, it was a rough outing for the Commanders in a 55-23 loss. I think the only way they win the game is if they were +4 in turnovers (or just +3 in fumbles lost). Even without the turnovers, they still never showed a real answer to stopping Philadelphia’s offense. Even Will Shipley came in for Saquon and ripped off a 57-yard run before scoring a touchdown.

The Eagles had 11 drives, scored 8 touchdowns, missed one early field goal, and punted twice in the third quarter. Yeah, it wasn’t just about the turnovers even if that definitely made things worse for Washington’s chances.

So, that one was a dud but still an incredible turnaround season for the Commanders. I’m sure Daniels will be a trendy MVP pick for 2025, and I may even drink some of the Kool-Aid if they make some free-agent splash signings to give him stronger weapons and build up that defense.

But the Eagles are still the class of the NFC East, and they really have been the best NFC team over the last three years despite having a caricature of a head coach. We’ll see if they can solve the Chiefs in two weeks.

Next two weeks: Two weeks of hyping up the final game of the season. I’ll have plenty of Super Bowl articles next week. This week, I’m continuing with Part 5 of my LOAT series, looking at the playoff luck for Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. I’m also going to do a bigger presentation on my Fraud Alert Rating metric. The Chiefs just have to win one more game for that to look as solid as possible.

NFL 2024 Conference Championship Predictions: Historic Day Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We’re here. About 12 hours from the point I’m writing this, they’ll kick off the NFC Championship Game, and that will begin what could be one of the most important days in NFL history depending on how these games go.

Just think of all the history and streaks on the line today:

  • The Chiefs can become the first team to reach the Super Bowl after repeating, putting them one win away from the three-peat.
  • A 10th-straight playoff win would also tie the Patriots for the all-time record.
  • The Chiefs have gone 8 straight games without a giveaway (NFL record).
  • The Chiefs have won 16 straight one-score games (NFL record).
  • The Bills have 8 giveaways in 19 games (NFL record for any season or any 19-game span).
  • The Bills have not lost the turnover battle in 21 straight games (longest streak in Super Bowl era).
  • The Bills are the only team since at least 1992 to have 0 lost fumbles by non-quarterbacks.
  • The Bills could break the Five-Year Rule if they win the Super Bowl in Year 7 of Sean McDermott/Josh Allen as no team has ever won its first Super Bowl starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than five years.
  • The Commanders can become the first team in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback (Jayden Daniels).
  • The Commanders can become the first team in NFL history to score at least 18 points in 20 consecutive games in a season.
  • The Eagles, well, they’re playing too. I guess Saquon Barkley can still set the single-season rushing record (playoffs included).

That’s a lot of stuff. I absolutely have a preferred rooting interest in seeing Commanders-Chiefs in two weeks. Unfortunately, that feels like the least likely outcome. I also have a very strong objection to seeing Bills-Eagles in two weeks. Unfortunately, that feels like the most likely outcome, or at least second right now. But crazier things have happened, and you can’t argue with these facts that add a lot of drama to the day:

  • The Commanders are the only team to beat the Eagles since October, and the only team to score more than 23 points against them in that time.
  • The Bills are the only team to beat the Chiefs’ starters this season, and the only team to score 30 points on that starting defense in the last two seasons.

Home teams usually win this round, but these teams have shown vulnerabilities despite their winning ways, and they are facing the teams arguably best equipped to beat them. That’s what makes it so interesting.

And while people are bitching left and right about officiating, let’s not lose the plot on turnovers this week. None of these final four teams have a giveaway in the playoffs. That’s never happened before since they’ve done this round in 1970. The teams who lose are likely going to suffer some devastating turnovers today that will go down in playoff infamy.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Conference Championship Predictions

Commanders at Eagles (-6.5)

I said in my preview and picks I was taking the Commanders, but can I get a redo? I’m just getting a bad vibe with the Commanders having some big losses in the trenches (Cosmi and DaRon Payne) on both sides of the ball. They were already at a disadvantage against the Eagles, who have the better defense, better run game/OL, and are home.

It’s a lot to overcome, but maybe if Jalen Hurts’ mobility is limited, that will be a great equalizer for this game. They still have Barkley, and I expect him to carve up the Commanders again. But they beat him running for 150 yards last time. The Rams were 13 yards away from beating this team with Barkley going for 200 again. Hell, the Browns (with Predator), Jaguars (with Trevor Lawrence playing terrible), and the Panthers (until the raccoon eater dropped the TD) all nearly won in Philly this year.

A team on a 7-game winning streak can beat this Philadelphia team. I know we should fade rookies in this spot, but what if Daniels is just that 1 of 1 rookie who makes history by getting to the Super Bowl? He’s already carrying the team like a veteran and doing things this postseason no one else has done (forget experience level):

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1882934544984334827

It’s asking a lot of Daniels, but I think he can outplay Hurts, withstand the impact of Barkley, and the Commanders just need a turnover or two to pull off the upset and go to the Super Bowl. We’re overdue for a No. 6 seed going on a miracle run.

Final: Commanders 24, Eagles 20

Bills at Chiefs (-1.5)

The theme for this game for me is turnovers. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the team that has a turnover meltdown loses this game by 10+ points. Which team is more likely to do that? Well, the Bills have fewer turnovers than the Chiefs and are much better at creating takeaways on defense, so that’s an easy call.

However, how crazy would it be if the game didn’t feature a single turnover? Not that crazy. The 42-36 “13 Seconds” game between these teams didn’t have a turnover. The 2024 Chiefs are also the first team in NFL history to play 5 games in a season where neither team turned it over. The only giveaway by either team in the last 8 games was Josh Allen’s deep ball intercepted by the Patriots. That’s it.

Referees are unfortunately the other big talking point. After the absurd reaction to the officiating in KC’s last game, which has been a running theme since the Bengals game in Week 2, I’m not sure the officiating won’t be overcorrected in this game to the point where the Chiefs can’t buy an easy call and are getting hit for the most ridiculous stuff to “balance” things out for the masses of idiots out there.

Every time you threaten the league with a conspiracy that it’s rigged for one team, I’d expect some kind of overcorrection. Maybe it’s calling a phantom DPI on the Chiefs on 3rd-and-long, a dubious roughing penalty for a hit on Josh Allen, and you can count on the Chiefs to get hit for holding to wipe out some good offensive gains (it’s a problem for them period).

Even the ref assignment reeks of “that’ll teach them” as the Chiefs are just 6-5 when Clete Blakeman is their ref, including some of the toughest losses in the Mahomes era (2018 AFC-CG, 54-51, their last home loss on Christmas 2023). He’s flag happy, and that’s not promising.

Purely from a matchup standpoint, the Chiefs should be healthier and have more players to help them in Week 11. I’m still not sold they didn’t try hard to win that game, but 4 targets for Kelce, not a single rush by Mahomes, and some other weird things like overuse of play-action and no QB spy on 4th & 2 vs. Allen tells me they were experimenting and should have some tricks up their sleeves this time Also, getting Nazeeh Johnson away from the field to play Jaylen Watson at corner should help.

Expecting the Bills to have edges at turnovers and refs, I think you also have to give them a better OL advantage. I’m still not sure the Chiefs aren’t hurting themselves by moving Joe Thuney to guard instead of keeping him there and playing DJ Humphries at left tackle. Might be taking away from the run, and that’s another issue. I think Hunt deserves more touches than Pacheco. The Chiefs have all these new, moving pieces (Hopkins, Hollywood) and I’m not sure they’ve figured out how to utilize them all properly yet. The margin for error has been tiny all year and they only lost one game, but it was also to their opponent today. That’s not good news. Harrison Butker also concerns me this year.

Andy Reid has lost 4 title games at home in his career, including twice with Mahomes after getting swept by the 2018 Pats and 2021 Bengals. The 2024 Bills could certainly join that list. It’s hard to bet against the Chiefs after last year’s title run, and then going 16-1 with starters, but maybe the Bills finally have enough to get the job done here.

This feels like a coin flip game and I don’t mean OT. It could just come down to Buffalo finishing +1 in turnovers and beating the Chiefs at their own game by walking that defense down the field for a GW FG with no time left (Tyler Bass’ redemption) after a Pacheco fumble. Yeah, that’s a 1990 NFC-CG Roger Craig reference, the closest three-peat attempt ever. The Chiefs should be properly motivated, but they’ve been playing with fire all year and I fear the Bills are the only team that can burn them in the AFC a step short of glory.

Final: Bills 27, Chiefs 24

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 18

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The conclusion of Week 18 in the NFL means it’s time I reflect on my preseason predictions. Let’s just say I’m not feeling great at all about my Super Bowl pick (Packers over Chiefs), but at least the Packers and Texans, two teams I hyped up, are in the tournament. You never know.

But I seem to have continued my troubling pattern of being way off on my picks every other year. I was off by an average of 2.88 wins this season, my worst since I started tracking this in 2013.

2024 NFL Predictions

In my defense, I bet a lot of people were thrown by some of the 10-win teams this season as the Vikings (14-3), Commanders (12-5), and Broncos (10-7) all blew away expectations with rookie quarterbacks and a career year from Sam Darnold. I picked the Commanders and Vikings specifically to finish 4-13, so that accounts for a lot of the disparities.

Then I was also done in by some of the most disappointing teams this season like the 49ers and Jets, who both blew a lot of leads in games they should have won this year. They blew 10 leads between them with the Jets (6) leading the league in that category with a way too dramatic season with Aaron Rodgers getting people fired.

It ended up being a top-heavy season with seven teams winning 12+ games, including four teams winning 14+ games. Helping to balance things, we had 10 teams lose 12+ games, so there were a lot of poor teams too. That’s probably going to lead to a real balancing act in 2025 where more teams should move closer to .500, so it’ll be important not to overreact to some of these records.

As for Week 18, the early slate produced some unexpected close games, the late slate was devoid of any real drama, and Sunday night was a bummer because of Sam Darnold’s awful game. In all, we had 9 games with a comeback opportunity.

For the last time this season, let’s run through a recap of all 32 teams in their final game of 2024.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Vikings at Lions: The New Year’s Ghost

It took 18 weeks, 17 games, and the 272nd and final game of the regular season before the worst nightmare for Minnesota fans became reality. On the big stage with the No. 1 seed on the line, Sam Darnold was seeing ghosts and shitting his pants.

People are going to see a 31-9 final score and just chalk it up as a Detroit blowout, but this was Minnesota’s game for the taking well into the third quarter when it only trailed 10-9 despite so many missed opportunities. Red zone play was the main culprit as Darnold was just abysmal in that confined space, missing receivers left and right. The Lions challenged him with a good pass rush while playing man coverage, and he simply couldn’t beat it with so many balls overthrown and off the mark. Darnold finished 18-of-41 for 166 yards. No turnovers but failing three times on fourth down is just as bad, especially when multiple drives were inside the Detroit 3.

The Lions were already No. 1 in red zone EPA/pass allowed, and that number should only look better after this game. But what a shocker to see this game produce four touchdowns, and all four were scored by Jahmyr Gibbs for Detroit.

Matchups matter, and maybe the Vikings could come up with some better man-coverage beaters in a rematch should there be one. But I think this game changes a lot of the feelings about these teams going into the playoffs as the Lions may in fact have enough on defense to get the job done for the Super Bowl, and the Vikings might just end up going 14-4 with sweeps by the Lions and Rams (their next opponent).

I’ve been pro-Darnold this season and he’s been passing so many different tests. But given this was the biggest game of his career, I can’t say I’m confident about what he’ll do in the playoffs when the season truly is on the line. At least this was a trial run and he got a taste of the atmosphere, but that was brutal to watch all night.

Saints at Buccaneers: Baker’s Legs to the Rescue

One of the day’s most entertaining games was watching Tampa Bay struggle as a two-touchdown home favorite against Spencer Rattler and the Saints with a division title on the line. I always say division games are scary. But despite being an offensive juggernaut in many games this year, the Bucs were down 16-6 at halftime and 19-13 going into the fourth quarter.

But Baker Mayfield’s legs made up for a slow start to his passing. He ran 9 times for 68 yards in this game, including some huge plays in the fourth quarter to lead a comeback. He also got things going with Jalen McMillan, who had a huge catch on fourth down and a touchdown on a drive where he was wrongfully penalized for a finger-pointing celebration that had nothing to do with gun violence. Then Mike Evans started making plays as he needed 85 yards in the game to reach 1,000 yards for the 11th year in a row.

Meanwhile, the Saints added to their misery of not being able to make a single fourth-quarter comeback win for the second season in a row. They were 0-7 this year with four blown leads, and this was just another.

But Baker’s improv on a lateral to Bucky Irving for an 11-yard touchdown gave the Bucs a 27-19 lead with 1:51 left. The Saints turned it over on downs with 36 seconds left. The game was effectively over, but Evans needed 5 more yards to get his 1,000, which would trigger a $3M bonus. It was risky, but they threw a pass to him, and the Saints didn’t seem to mind letting him make the play as he picked up 9 yards and the whole team celebrated as the game was over, the bonus was his, and the NFC South belongs to Tampa Bay.

They would have won it anyway after Atlanta lost in overtime in Carolina, but this was a grind against a really bad New Orleans team that’s missing so many key players. We’ll see how the Bucs fare in a Week 1 rematch with the Commanders, but that might be a better matchup for them than the Vikings.

Bengals at Steelers: Close But No Cigar

Well, I guess the Bengals won the closest thing they’ll have to a playoff game this year as they came through in Pittsburgh in a 19-17 slugfest to reach 9-8. But they didn’t get the help they needed from the Chiefs-Broncos game on Sunday, so they are out. That’s also what happens when you lose 16-10 at home to the Patriots, one of the worst teams in football, in Week 1. September matters too and the Bengals dug too big of a hole to get out of.

But as for the team that is in the playoffs from this game, just what the hell are the Steelers doing to end this season? They’ve lost four games in a row and are playing terrible offense. Even though the start of this game looked like the defense was going to be a disaster, they calmed down and kept the Bengals out of the end zone all night after giving up that opening-drive touchdown. The special teams had a big mistake with a fumble, but they made up for it by recovering a fumble later.

This was on Arthur Smith’s offense. All the nice things I said when they lit up the Bengals in Cincinnati earlier this season, throw them out the window like they never happened. The Steelers sure seemed to forget they did.

Russell Wilson had 414 yards in that first game, taking advantage of YAC and passes to his running backs over the middle. That didn’t exist in this game. Jaylen Warren had 0 catches. Calvin Austin, someone who can catch some quick hitters, had 0 catches. George Pickens caught an early screen that was terrible, then didn’t catch his last five targets, including several awful drops in maybe the worst game I’ve ever seen a Pittsburgh wideout play. He finished with 0 yards and I’d put his chances of a second contract in Pittsburgh at 0.0001%.

For most of the half, Wilson had two completions: the ill-fated screen to Pickens and a brilliant 25-yard catch by Mike Williams. But guess what? Williams never received another target the rest of the game. How the fvck does this happen?

Then even when they had a chance to go get a game-winning field goal, Wilson, a veteran who has done this dozens of times, completely botched the last drive with horrible clock management. I can’t crucify him for the whole game because of the drops by Pickens and then the fourth-and-ballgame drop by Pat Freiermuth, but Wilson was terrible for most of the game. Get rid of the ball faster instead of being a pin cushion for Trey Hendrickson (3.5 sacks).

It’s just such a frustrating offense to watch, because there’s no reason they can’t be better than this. The coaching incompetence is high, and once again, Mike Tomlin has no answers for a losing streak.

They probably embrace going to Baltimore because of past success and playing an ugly, low-scoring game. But they did just lose 34-17 there, so this might be a rude awakening and a 5-game losing streak to end the season.

Chiefs at Broncos: That’s Going to Leave a Mark on the Stats

Well, I guess the Chiefs aren’t very good when they rest their ~13 best players for the playoffs and they’re facing a team that’s playing for their season that already should have beat the KC starters in Arrowhead earlier this year.

But god damn, 38-0? Making Bo Nix look like a mobile Drew Brees. The Broncos outgained them 479-98. You have to go back to the 2000 Browns against the Jaguars to find the last NFL team to get outgained by at least 380 yards while being held under 100 yards.

The Chiefs aren’t going to care about this performance, but it does create an interesting dynamic. What if this spurs the Broncos to go beat Buffalo in this week’s 7-2 matchup, which would send the Broncos right back to Arrowhead after the Chiefs haven’t played their starters for 24-25 days? Getting rid of Buffalo would be ideal, but let’s not act like Denver hasn’t played the Chiefs well even going back to last year. The Chiefs just don’t score much on them and they have multiple DPOY candidates.

Maybe the Broncos flop in Buffalo and it’s a moot point, but they won there last year by forcing the Bills into so many turnovers that they fired their offensive coordinator. The Bills are due for some turnovers too.

Interesting AFC race all around this year. I still think a Bengals-Bills game would have been must-see TV and the most interesting 7-2 game you could have, but we’ll see if Denver can turn this opportunity into something.

Bears at Packers: Not Feeling Good About Green Bay Anymore

If I’m just being honest, the Packers, my preseason Super Bowl pick, haven’t done much to impress me this season. Had it not been for a blocked field goal in Chicago, they would have finished 0-6 in division games. They already lost in Brazil to the Eagles, their playoff opponent. They beat up on a paper tiger like the Dolphins on Thanksgiving and smoked the 49ers without Brock Purdy. They beat the Rams before they were good this year.

What’s their best win? A 24-22 squeaker over the Texans? Maybe they’ll surprise us in the playoffs, but I’m not sure Sunday could have gone much worse as Matt LaFleur suffered his first loss to the Bears, which ended their 10-game losing streak overall and their 11-game losing streak to the Packers by making a field goal at the end. Had the Packers just picked up 2 more yards to get a fresh set of downs, they could have won the game themselves on a walk-off field goal. But they left Caleb Williams time, and after dinking and dunking to little success all day, he came through and his kicker had his back this time.

Jordan Love injured his elbow and his status is unknown. Christian Watson left injured, but what else is new there? I just don’t feel good at all about Green Bay repeating last year’s playoff success as the No. 7 seed. This team won more games (11-6), but what’s impressive? At least they won in Detroit last year and beat the Chiefs.

Commanders at Cowboys: Mariota to the Rescue

While the Packers were losing to the Bears, the Commanders were on the ropes against the Cowboys once again. I’m not sure what Jayden Daniels was trying to accomplish in this game, but after taking several sacks, they sent him to the bench at halftime for veteran Marcus Mariota.

But they continued playing their other starters as Terry McLaurin came up clutch on the game-winning drive. He had four catches on the drive, including the game-winning touchdown from 5 yards out with just 0:03 left. That’s how the Commanders were able to get to 12 wins with a 23-19 victory over a Dallas team that got a monster game out of Micah Parsons (2.5 sacks) and a rare look at Trey Lance, who I still say should have been starting over Cooper Rush after Dak Prescott was lost.

So concludes a very disappointing Dallas season at 7-10. But I will say that Jerry Jones is surprisingly gifted as an actor after seeing him in Landman this weekend.

Panthers at Falcons: Bryce Young Finishes Strong

The Panthers (5-12) could be a trendy pick for the NFC South or wild card next year after a respectable finish for Bryce Young given where his season began. Sunday was arguably his best game ever as he accounted for 5 total touchdowns, including the walk-off winner in overtime in a 44-38 game.

But we have all offseason to talk about whether we can trust that finish or see what pieces the Panthers add to this roster. The more troubling issue is the way Atlanta (8-9) faltered down the stretch, and the way the defense has disappointed rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who led a couple of game-tying touchdown drives but never got the ball in overtime losses to Washington and Carolina.

The Falcons just gave up 44 points in his third start. As you might imagine, Tom Brady went 381 starts in the NFL without his team ever allowing more than 42 points. I like to bring that up only because it puts Brady’s incredible team help in context, but also because most of those games were under Bill Belichick, the coach the Falcons spurred in hiring in favor of Morris this year.

Still liking that move, Mr. Blank?

Seahawks at Rams: Geno’s Money Drive

Not much was on the line for the Seahawks, but Geno Smith had $6 million in incentives to hit, and he pulled off the trifecta for them. The key was getting the 10th win of the season for Seattle, the first 10-win team to miss the playoffs in the 7-team format. But it took a 4QC/GWD for Geno, the richest one of his career as he fought through the pain to throw his fourth touchdown pass to put the Seahawks up late.

Jimmy Garoppolo tried to answer after playing a solid game with the Rams’ backups, but his 4th-and-ballgame pass skipped in there short in a 30-25 loss. I’m a little surprised the Rams didn’t try to win for the No. 3 seed, but I guess they see little difference in No. 4 and No. 3, and they already beat the Vikings this year, their opponent next week.

But a good day for Geno that almost makes up for blowing the first Rams game that cost them the division title in the end.

Chargers at Raiders: Now the Real Fun Begins

Is Week 18 even real football when Quentin Johnston is catching 13-of-14 targets for 186 yards? But look out if he’s playing like that with Justin Herbert having his best defense, his best offensive line, and a real coach going into the playoffs with some momentum and a quality matchup in Houston next week.

This team is Kansas City’s worst nightmare in the divisional round. A gamer like Herbert who already tested them in Arrowhead without Ladd McConkey and J.K. Dobbins, and a pass rush that was after Mahomes all night and held the Chiefs under 20 points in both games. I could easily see NFL Films recording a “Who’s got it better than us?” chant from Harbaugh in a victorious locker room in two weeks to end the three-peat.

But first thing’s first. The Chargers need to deliver in Houston against that pass rush next week. Herbert has to get that first playoff win under his belt.

As for the Raiders, I’d fire the coach and do whatever I can to find some new quarterbacks for 2025.

Dolphins at Jets: Is That It for Aaron Rodgers?

I’m not surprised at all that Aaron Rodgers lit up the Dolphins for four touchdowns in what will probably be his last game for the Jets. Paper tiger defense with a backup quarterback starting in place of Tua Tagovailoa. It was never going to end well for Miami this year, and now Tyreek Hill seems to be on the way out – the Jimmy Butler path?

But Rodgers and the Jets (5-12) were the biggest disappointment in the league this year. If you told someone he’d get a trade for Davante Adams and finished with the stat line he had, you’d think the Jets were 10-7 or 11-6. But they blew a league-high six leads in the fourth quarter and firing Robert Saleh was premature.

Bills at Patriots: New England Wins, New England Loses, New England Fires Coach

The Bills definitely did the right thing by losing this one to make sure the Patriots didn’t have control of the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft. Don’t need them getting Travis Hunter, but that’s still a possibility if the other teams force quarterback picks at the top.

But the team’s 4th win of the season was no happy ending for owner Robert Kraft, who waited almost no time before firing coach Jerod Mayo. I think that’s the right call since he never should have been hired in the first place and didn’t show any value for the job this year. But the timing was still a bit harsh. Mike Vrabel coming next?

Shout out to Joe Milton though. I don’t care who was on the field for either team. He made some spectacular plays and should get some longer looks in the NFL even if it has to be with another team down the road.

Giants at Eagles: Tanner McKee the New Kevin Kolb or Matt Flynn?

With the way teams are so quarterback starved, Tanner McKee could be making himself some money with these performances late in the year for the Eagles. He’s thrown 4 touchdown passes in basically 6 quarters, and they asked him to throw 41 passes in a wire-to-wire win against the Giants with the Eagles resting their good players – just like the Chiefs did but with far better results against a weaker opponent.

But even with backups, the Eagles had enough on both sides of the ball to get past the Giants, who will finish 3-14 with a ton of question marks.

Hell, maybe they can trade a third-round pick for McKee…

Jaguars at Colts: Overtime? In This Economy?

I guess no one told the Jaguars (4-13) and Colts (8-9) their game didn’t mean anything, because these motherfvckers went to overtime in Week 18. It ended the way you should expect with Joe Flacco leading his 30th game-winning drive with a field goal, and Mac Jones being unable to answer it because of a sack and a 20-yard completion on 4th-and-22.

We’ll see if both coaches are back next year, but I think it’s pretty unlikely, especially in Jacksonville.

Texans at Titans: Will Levis Era Over?

Is it over for Will Levis in Tennessee, which finished 3-14 and secured the No. 1 pick? If so, it was a fitting end in a 23-14 loss in Houston where he was involved in some wild turnover and touchdown plays.

And it seems to me you lived your life

Like a candle in the wind

Never knowing who to throw to

When the blitz came in

And I wish they didn’t draft you

With that high of a pick

Your mayo ran out long before

At least your dick is big

Goodnight, sweet prince.

49ers at Cardinals: When San Francisco Goes Low…

San Francisco’s last 22 seasons since 2003 only include 15 non-winning seasons and 7 trips to at least the NFC Championship Game. There’s no middle ground with this team, which fell to last place in the NFC West with a 6-11 record. The injuries will be blamed for this one, and that’s fair to a degree, but let’s not act like blowing all those fourth-quarter leads in the division didn’t ultimately screw them.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals (8-9) completed the sweep here by running up the score to 47 points, but where was this offense in all those weeks where they couldn’t break 14 or 17 points? Too inconsistent for me.

Browns at Ravens: The Biggest Spread of the Season

For a while there, it didn’t look like the Ravens were going to cover the 20-point spread, the largest this season. They were only up 21-10 in the fourth quarter after dropping a ton of passes, Zay Flowers left early with a knee injury, and the Ravens looked a little bored defensively and frustrated offensively. But Derrick Henry finally got rolling after a poor start, and before you knew it, the Ravens were up 35-10 to put this one away and win the AFC North.

Did Lamar Jackson do enough for his third MVP? I think he already did before the game started. It wasn’t the masterpiece ending for his case, but he didn’t do much wrong in this one. Will voters just go with the pity vote for Josh Allen like the sportsbooks seem to think given the odds? We’ll see. But Jackson just had arguably the greatest dual-threat season ever, and we’ll see if he can turn it into his best playoff run.

Next week: The playoffs. That means the annual Houston playoff game on a Saturday afternoon to kick things off. Then we’ll see if Pittsburgh’s historically underperforming playoff defense will show up again, or if Baltimore’s historically underperforming playoff offense will neutralize it in one of the closest games this weekend. I’m not that sold Denver will give Buffalo a good game, but maybe the Chiefs gave them some confidence in what they’re doing. Packers-Eagles will be played on a better field than Brazil this time. Commanders-Bucs, the last time these teams met in the playoffs in Tampa (January 2006), my furnace was broke, so hopefully that’s not a repeat event this weekend. Vikings-Rams is a perfect matchup to end the week, the rematch of the missed facemask penalty.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I loved the NFL’s Week 7 schedule more than I probably loved the games themselves on Sunday. It wasn’t bad, and most of the top games delivered, but it definitely felt like a return to a lot of weak offense around the league.

 It’s also been oddly one-sided as just four games had a comeback opportunity going into Monday night’s double-header that should hopefully add to that total with Baltimore’s shaky closing abilities and the Chargers just generally being the Chargers.

But that’s a low number of close games despite four teams coming back from a 10-0 deficit to win (Jaguars, Lions, Colts, and Bills). The only fourth-quarter lead changes happened in the two NFC North games.

There were also many quarterback injuries in games, including the one that most people had no problem seeing. That doesn’t mean you wished for it, but you certainly aren’t going to shed a tear or think of it as a loss for the team.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Lions at Vikings: Game of the Week

With the 49ers falling apart, these NFC North games are turning into the biggest ones in the NFC this season, and Week 7 was one hell of a time to test out the Lions and Vikings. We got to see the Vikings after a bye week, and the Lions right after losing Aidan Hutchinson last week.

This 31-29 game managed to exceed the hype. The Lions failed on one of the worst fake punts you’ll ever see to start the game, then lost David Montgomery to an injury and trailed 10-0. Hard to start worse than that.

But Jared Goff completed his first 15 passes, Jahmyr Gibbs broke off a long touchdown run, and the Lions soon led 21-10 at halftime. I liked Detroit in this one because it already has two games of experience late last season against Brian Flores’ defense. They wouldn’t be as shocked by it as these other teams have been this year.

But that doesn’t mean Goff wasn’t under pressure often and had to carve up the blitz. He took 4 sacks and fumbled twice (neither lost) in the game, so it was a tough one. But he hung in there and completed 22-of-25 passes for 280 yards as he is playing as well as any quarterback right now.

Sam Darnold actually had some similar numbers in this game with 22-of-27 for 259 yards and 4 sacks. Justin Jefferson had another big game against the Lions, including a touchdown in the third quarter to make it 21-17.

But while Montgomery returned to the game, it wasn’t for the best. With 6:00 left, Montgomery lost the ball on a run and the Vikings scooped it up for a stunning 36-yard touchdown to take a 29-28 lead with 5:50 left. Huge miss on the 2-point conversion, however.

The Lions went three-and-out with Goff getting sacked on third down again. The Vikings could have ran out the clock on offense, but they too went three-and-out. Gibbs took over instead of Montgomery for the game-winning drive and delivered a huge moment with the drive’s first 34 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught a 14-yard pass, and the Lions were in field goal range.

I know Dan Campbell is as aggressive as they come, but I didn’t love the conservative approach with conceding the long field goal. I’d want to get as close as possible for an unproven pro kicker in Jake Bates, the UFL standout. But from 44 yards away, Bates delivered on the biggest kick of his brief NFL career to put the Lions up 31-29.

Darnold had 15 seconds left at his own 30. He got the ball to midfield, and I’m not sure an illegal formation penalty on a spike with 1 second left (debatable) shouldn’t just be a game-ending penalty with a 10-second runoff. That felt fishy. But the Vikings had one last chance for a Hail Mary, and you never know with Jefferson down there. However, it ended in a fitting way as the Lions sacked Darnold on his ass to end the game and escape with the win.

In the end, the big plays by the Lions were too much for Minnesota to overcome. But I’m looking forward to the other NFC North clashes this year when the Packers get involved too.

Chiefs at 49ers: Super Bowl Rematch Sees These Teams Further Apart as Injuries Mount

To date, the only direct Super Bowl rematch was Dallas vs. Buffalo in 1992-93. With the way these teams are going, we won’t see another in February. Injuries are doing their damage, but the Chiefs remain the NFL’s last unbeaten at 6-0, winners of 12 straight, while the 49ers are flailing at 3-4 after this 28-18 loss at home despite being a 2.5-point favorite.

That means Patrick Mahomes continues to be the ultimate underdog with an 11-3 SU record, but this game was little about him. This was a showcase for the defense, and even if you acknowledge the injuries for the 49ers, they still had talent on that field and the system and mind of Kyle Shanahan calling plays. The Chiefs forced Brock Purdy into one of his roughest games in the NFL as he was intercepted three times, including a total headscratcher in the end zone in the fourth quarter when the 49ers trailed 21-12. Even if he wasn’t pressured as he threw it, that pass looked like it was going right to the defender either way.

Mahomes also had two interceptions in this game, but while he’s had some headscratchers this year, it’s hard to say he did wrong on a tipped pass at the line and a play where the receiver (Xavier Worthy) fell on his route. There were at least four Chiefs who slipped on Mahomes’ incompletions in the game.

But this is the value of the Chiefs in 2024. Even when the team is turning it over multiple times or doing something silly like a fake punt that failed miserably, they overcome it with their defense, and they still score a fair number of points. They scored 28 points in this one with three of those touchdown drives from long distance.

Mahomes’ best play was as a runner when it was a tight 14-12 game. He tightrope-walked the sideline and stayed in bounds for a 33-yard run that set up his first touchdown run since 2022 on a 4th-and-goal at the 1 to make it 21-12.

Still, it’s wild to see the injuries for these teams. Both starting running backs (Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco) were out. The Chiefs were already missing their top wideouts (Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown), and then their new de-facto No. 1, JuJu Smith-Schuster, left the game early after aggravating his hamstring. The 49ers lost Deebo Samuel quickly to an illness, Brandon Aiyuk was knocked out with a potentially serious injury, and Jauan Jennings, who actually leads the team in receiving yards before this game, was already inactive. Just a mess.

But the Chiefs still found ways to score four touchdowns and actually were leading by 16 points before a San Francisco touchdown made it a 28-18 final. That final score by the Chiefs got them to 28 points, the first time they scored that much during this 12-game winning streak.

That just creates a new record, however. The Chiefs are the first team in NFL history to win 12 straight games without scoring more than 28 points in any of them. Their next opponent (Raiders) is the last team to beat them, but this season is beyond fucked if that ends up being their first loss in 2024.

It’s coming eventually with the way they’re playing, but they were still impressive enough in this game. Not everyone can do that to the 49ers, injuries or not.

Texans at Packers: My Preseason Hype Teams Played the Walk-Off FG Finish I Expected

I’ve been high on the Texans and Packers as “new powers” in the league since February really. I was looking forward to this one since we probably won’t get many games between Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud, but I was stunned at just how well Green Bay limited the Houston passing game.

The Packers have feasted on turnovers this year while still giving up their share of yards and points. But this was an impressive performance where they really held Stroud in check without a single takeaway. They held him to 86 passing yards on 21 throws, and they sacked him 4 times while flustering him all day. The Texans scored on a lot of short fields and couldn’t really sustain offense.

On the other side, Jordan Love had one of those mixed games where he made some “wow” throws, but he had a few more picks, and he couldn’t get some of his best receivers going against this pass defense.

But it was a close game as I expected. I picked the Texans to win because I trust Stroud more than Love in those moments. Sure enough, Stroud saved probably his best throw of the game for a late third down when the Texans were driving in a 21-19 game late. But the Packers had all of their timeouts, and the Texans failed to get the touchdown or a first down to run out the clock for their field goal. They had to settle for taking a 22-21 lead with 1:44 left.

A lead is a lead, but that’s not a very safe one with that much time left. However, I wanted to see how Love would fare here as we have seen him struggle to come up with a field goal in these moments. Think of last year in games like Atlanta, Denver, or San Francisco in the playoffs. He was only 2-8 at comeback opportunities before Sunday.

Also, the Packers have been going through kickers like crazy, so you had to wonder how newly signed Brandon McManus would do. I know him best from Denver, and he’s been an adequate enough kicker in his career.

But Love had to get him in range, and that didn’t prove to be a big problem this time. He marched the offense 44 yards in a hurry. McManus was left with a 45-yard kick to win it, and after an icing attempt, he delivered the goods for a 24-22 win. That’s a quality one for the Packers this year.

Jets at Steelers: Tomlin Knew

For the last six weeks, I’ve basically come on here and said that I’m not impressed with what Justin Fields is doing in the Pittsburgh offense. He looked a lot like the quarterback from Chicago in that he’s slow with his decisions, he rifles too many throws, doesn’t make the touch passes on time, he’s a magnet for sacks and fumbles, and he’s possibly the least clutch QB of the 21st century.

Yet, the NFL groupthink seemed to get stronger every week that Fields is now good, and the Steelers would be crazy to bench him for old Russell Wilson. They kept citing the 4-2 record, even though the Steelers had not won a game when the opponent scored more than 13 points all season. The offense, including Fields himself, had a lot of mediocre rankings as well. These were results you could certainly improve on with a quarterback of Wilson’s experience. He only was out because of his calf. He was going to be the Week 1 starter otherwise.

So, I was always hoping for Mike Tomlin to come to his senses and start Wilson, but I was skeptical he’d actually do it because of the team’s record. Yet, Tomlin had the balls this week to defy that national NFL groupthink and go with Wilson. People created silly stats like the “first 4-2 quarterback to get benched” when it’s not even the first time in Pittsburgh history. Joe Gilliam was benched for Terry Bradshaw in 1974 despite starting 4-1-1, a better record than 4-2. But I guess since it’s not exactly 4-2, they think their insignificant stat has meaning. Screw that.

I still liked the Jets to win the game Sunday night, but that’s because I had much higher expectations for Aaron Rodgers and that offense after a good showing (kicker aside) against Buffalo last week, and the addition of Davante Adams via trade. Sure enough, Rodgers threw his first pass to Rodgers, but the receiver couldn’t pull it in, and he finished with just 3 catches for 30 yards on 9 targets as Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson looked better in that offense.

Well, Wilson was fine until the third quarter when he popped an easy catch into the air for an interception that was returned to the 1. There’s your game changer. Rodgers didn’t have a good game and especially not a good second half, but that second pick was not his fault at all. The Jets just have many issues.

As for Wilson, he no doubt got off to a bad start. After he attempted to kill Earthworm Jim on back-to-back plays, I thought he really did go The Full McNabb with 2011 Vikings vibes. Someone sign Christian Ponder.

But games are 60 minutes, and we know even in Russ’ prime he could start a game ugly. Before you knew it, he had as many passing yards at halftime as Fields had in half of his full games this season. Wilson throws with more touch, he gives his receivers more opportunities down the field, and he makes better and faster decisions with the ball than Fields. Did he get lucky on a few passes? Sure, but it was his first game in 10 months, and his first with Pittsburgh. Do you remember how Rodgers looked in his first games of the last two seasons with New York, or Tom Brady’s debut in Tampa Bay? It was worse than this.

Wilson did a very nice job, and he showed he was mobile enough to only take 1 sack on the night. He also didn’t throw any picks. Justin Fields has literally never had a start in the NFL where he threw no picks and didn’t take multiple sacks. Wilson did that in his first game with Pittsburgh. He also didn’t fumble like Fields did weekly. The running game also didn’t die with him in there as Najee Harris continues to look highly motivated these last two games. George Pickens also caught his first touchdown of the season.

Russ had a definite huge impact on the offense, and he feels more in control at the line than Fields ever did. He won’t run as fast as Fields, but he rarely needs to. That’s not the kind of quarterback play that’s going to take you far, and Tomlin understands that. I think benching Fields will prove to be one of his smartest moves in years.

The quarterback who actually looked too old and slow on Sunday night was Rodgers. Is he going to trade Wilson next after that dropped pass turned pick? They’re 2-5 and fading fast even in a weakened AFC.

But Sunday night was a great one for Tomlin and anyone who didn’t see what the fuss was with Fields all these weeks.

Titans at Bills: Box Score Blowout Doesn’t Tell the Story

The numbers are going to make this one look like a boring rout, a 34-10 blowout where Josh Allen threw for over 300 yards, Amari Cooper caught a touchdown in his team debut, and the Titans still struggled to score with Mason Rudolph starting for an injured Will Levis (AC joint).

Those things are all true, but this was a tough game for Buffalo deep into the third quarter. The Bills went three-and-out 3 times in the first quarter and fell behind 10-0. Cooper dropped his first target. Rudolph was outplaying Allen.

But the Titans really screwed themselves to start the second half when they went for a 4th-and-2 at their own 44 and Tony Pollard was stuffed for a big loss. Why would they do that with a 10-7 lead? The offense was not thriving to the point where you could trust them to convert and actually turn it into points.

The defense was playing well, and Buffalo was struggling on offense. This just gave them a huge boost as Allen took the field 41 yards away from the end zone and the drive ended with Cooper scoring. The Bills led the rest of the game. Terrible decision by the Titans to go for it.

The Bills padded some stats late with the game in hand, including a 16-yard touchdown run after the 2-minute warning. But the Titans had a shot for most of this game. Far from your normal 34-10 rout.

Seahawks at Falcons: Surprising Rout

These teams have played many close games, and you just expected that sort of finish in a passing fest between Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins. Actually, I thought it’d be a passing clinic with Geno facing a defense without a pass rush, but he moved around well and threw for 181 yards at halftime. I just didn’t expect him to barely finish the game with 200 yards as the run game and defense showed up for Seattle to finish the Falcons off in maybe their worst team performance of the season.

Just when you thought Cousins would make it a one-score game while trailing 24-14 in the fourth quarter, the Seahawks had the plot twist with a strip-sack and recovery for a touchdown to make it 31-14 with 12:4 6 left. Cousins threw another pick on the next drive, and we ended up seeing the first NFL completion of rookie Michael Penix’s career before this one ended 34-14.

No quarterback controversy in Atlanta (yet), but this one surprised me as I thought for sure the Falcons would do more damage against that Seattle defense in the dome.

Eagles at Giants: The Saquon Revenge Game Delivers

Revenge games can be overrated but running back Saquon Barkley had one of the best you’ll ever see for the Eagles against his Giants. He really carried the offense with 176 yards on just 17 carries, and he scored the game’s first touchdown, which might have been enough given the Giants could only muster a field goal in the 28-3 blowout.

That left Jalen Hurts with an easy job as he only had to throw for 114 yards. The game was avert-your-eyes bad for pass blocking as all four quarterbacks who played took sacks, including backup Kenny Pickett, and there were 13 sacks total between the teams.

Naturally, Daniel Jones took the worst of it with 7 sacks in a game where he didn’t have left tackle Andrew Thomas (surgery). Jones finished with 43 yards on 28 pass plays, which is pathetic even for his low standards.

The Giants punted 11 times, so they were even absurdly boring in blowout fashion. At least throw some picks. Risk something.

Bengals at Browns: When Losing Is Good

The Browns got Nick Chubb back for the first time in over a year, and they lost Deshaun Watson for the season to a torn Achilles on a non-contact play. All in all, that sounds like a great day, right?

Oddly enough, Chubb scored a touchdown on the drive where Watson was injured right before the half. Almost as if karma was taking over and the fortune was changing for Cleveland. But I thought it was odd before the game that Jameis Winston was announced as the No. 3 quarterback, demoted for the young Dorian Thompson-Robinson. What did Jameis do to get demoted? I thought he was the best quarterback on this roster.

It may have cost the Browns too, because DTR stunk off the bench. He completed 11-of-24 passes for 82 yards with multiple picks. A 34-yard run was his longest play on a day the Browns couldn’t actually run the ball on Cincinnati, a defense that has done a huge turnaround these last two weeks thanks to playing lines like the Giants and Browns in 2024.

But DTR was injured, allowing Winston to play in the fourth quarter. But it was too late by then. The Bengals started the game with a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown, but that Joe Burrow-led offense managed just two touchdowns in this 21-14 final. Another ho-hum performance where the Bengals were fortunate to be playing a bad team.

But the Watson story is over for 2024, and maybe that could help the Browns move on from him faster. Cleveland players supported Watson after the game and criticized the fans for cheering his injury. I could see where they’re coming from as teammates, and probably as players who hope they aren’t cheered while injured down the road. But they should also understand why fans feel that way about Watson.

Of course, I wouldn’t expect Winston or Myles Garrett to be the voice of reason on this topic. Winston is especially a bad messenger for this, and Garrett should know better as someone who is supposed to be the face of the franchise.

But it was nice to see Chubb back and in the end zone. More of that going forward.

Patriots vs. Jaguars: Do I Get on a Soapbox Again About That Strategy?

I didn’t get up to watch this one and see the Jaguars explode back from a 10-0 hole, but I was awake to see the 2-point conversion strategy become a talking point again. The Patriots were down 25-10, scored a touchdown with 8:22 left, decided to go for 2, didn’t get it, and they trailed by 9+ for the rest of the game, which eventually became a 32-16 loss after a poor finish.

I am consistently against going for 2 on the first touchdown as it is the strategy more likely to lead you into needing one onside kick recovery, if not two, and I never want anything to do with that hopeless endeavor. I also think the later in the game, the worse of a strategy it is. This wasn’t super late, but you have to keep in mind the Patriots hadn’t scored since the first quarter.

Also, when people talk about having “more information” aspect of it, do they ever consider things like the fact that the Patriots never ran a play from deeper than the Jacksonville 16 in this game? Seriously. Their failed 2-point conversion attempt was their only snap inside the final 15 yards of opponent territory in the game. Not exactly much practice at running your red zone and goal line packages in this game. Instead you’re completely cold to that area in the game, and now you have to make this crucial play or you’re down 2 scores with half a quarter left. Just something to consider that I never see considered. I don’t think confidence gets considered enough, not to mention the hopelessness felt from being down 2 scores.

But I don’t feel like getting into it any more over an inconsequential game between two of the worst teams in the league. I just know when the Patriots forced a punt and got the ball back with 3:58 left, it sure as hell would have been nicer if they were down 25-17 instead of 25-16. That way you could even punt on 4th-and-26 instead of having to go for it and for sure ending the game early with a big loss.

At least give me a chance in a one-score game. But the Patriots should again feel some encouragement with Drake Maye, who threw for 276 yards, 2 more touchdowns, and only took 2 sacks on 37 pass attempts. I’m not sure what sitting behind Jacoby Brissett did for him, but I’m glad we’re past that part of the season.

That still doesn’t mean I want to wake up at 9:30 A.M. to watch the post-Belichick Patriots play overseas against the London Jaguars.

Raiders at Rams: The “If a Bear Shits in the Woods…” Game of the Week

It’s a little early in the season to just not care at all about these teams, but that’s where I am already. I just don’t see either being part of the playoff picture. Matthew Stafford and Gardner Minshew both threw for 154 yards in this game, though Minshew did his work off the bench after starter Aidan O’Connell left with an injury.

But the Raiders kept trying to chip away with field goals while the Rams missed potentially a huge 35-yard field goal with 10:11 left that would have made it a 23-12 lead. Instead, Minshew later got the ball back in a 20-15 game with 1:39 left. If he truly is the Ryan Fitzpatrick of the 2020s, he lived up to the reputation with a game-ending interception on the third play of the drive. Good pressure on the drive by Jared Verse, who I guess is still the frontrunner for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Dolphins at Colts: Neither Team Had Their Best Quarterback

Tough loss for Miami (2-4) if they were hoping to get back in this thing with Tua Tagovailoa maybe returning at quarterback next week. They were up 10-0 and Anthony Richardson couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn with his passes.

But the Dolphins gave up a big completion before halftime, which led to a field goal for the Colts. Then in the third quarter, they really coughed up the game to the Colts. Raheem Mostert lost a fumble, which led to a 28-yard touchdown drive, then Alec Ingold lost a fumble in the red zone in a 10-10 game.

The Colts had the ball to start the fourth and Richardson led what is technically his first game-winning drive in the NFL, ending with a 22-yard field goal with 8:41 left. But the Dolphins lost Tyler Huntley to injury, and he was replaced by the dreadful Tim Boyle. Kicker Jason Sanders missed a 54-yard tying field goal with 5:14 left.

After the Colts added a field goal to make it 16-10, a move you can get away with against Boyle, it was a poorly-run 2-minute drill for the Dolphins that didn’t make it past the Indy 33 before Boyle sailed his 4th-down pass out of bounds. Either he’s incredibly inaccurate and tried to get that pass to the sidelines, or he didn’t realize it was fourth down.

Either way, I hate entertaining either of these teams for wild card spots. This is not good football. A game between Joe Flacco and Tua might have been alright though.

Panthers at Commanders: Please, Spare My Favorite Rookie

The crazy thing is Jayden Daniels left in the first quarter with a rib injury and the Commanders still won 40-7. The Washington defense still matched the Carolina team in scoring thanks to a horrific Andy Dalton pick-six starting the scoring in the game. But Marcus Mariota replaced Daniels very well, and it was business as usual for this offense.

I think that says a lot more about how bad the Panthers are (again) than anything about Daniels being a system quarterback. You can’t teach his 46-yard run to anyone, but Mariota is a good fit for that offense.

I just hope Daniels is okay to go next week in the showdown with Chicago and fellow rookie Caleb Williams. It was clear there was no need to rush him back in this game with the score lopsided so quickly.

Next week: Vikings-Rams on TNF. Better than putting Sam Darnold in prime time a week later when the ghosts are out. Eagles-Bengals is a nice game for teams who peaked in 2022. I hope they #FreeJameis against Baltimore in Cleveland. The Falcons-Bucs rematch could be something after the first game was excellent. We need Jayden Daniels healthy for that Chicago game to save the late-window slate. Cowboys-49ers is oddly more interesting now that both teams are struggling. Giants-Steelers means we get to live the Russ experience in prime time again, but I see that as T.J. Watt’s launch game towards DPOY since he gets to face Daniel Jones. Overall, a huge step down from the Week 7 marquee games.

NFL 2024 Week 7 Predictions: Strongest Schedule Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I wouldn’t even say it was by accident, but the NFL has loaded up the best schedule of the 2024 season (so far) with the Week 7 slate. Texans-Packers, Lions-Vikings, Chiefs-49ers, and Ravens-Bucs are all great games, and even Sunday night’s Jets-Steelers game has drama with the debuts of Davante Adams and Russell Wilson on their new teams.

It’s definitely one of those pivotal weeks in the Super Bowl chase as the 49ers need to get a win for their mental health against the Chiefs just to show they can beat that team, their personal road block to multiple championships. We also get to see just how real the Vikings and Sam Darnold are in this NFC North race against the Lions, and I think Texans-Packers is a great non-conference matchup between two teams I was very high on in the offseason.

Favorites were dominant last week with a 12-2 record SU. I’d keep that in mind when it comes to picking this week’s winners, especially in those big games were the road teams are slight underdogs and home-field isn’t what it used to be in this league.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 7 Predictions

I confused Sean Payton for still coaching the Saints, but Denver was in fact my pick on Thursday night, a terrible game to watch. I’m not getting up early for Pats-Jags either. But the good stuff should start at 1 PM.

Pats-Jags: Jacksonville has to win or they’re going to fire Doug Pederson, right? But Drake Maye showed some positives against the Texans last week, so I’m going to hedge and still take the Pats to cover in a closer game than both teams played last week.

Titans-Bills: It looks like Mason Rudolph is starting for Will Levis, but he returns to Buffalo where he lost a playoff game 31-17 with Pittsburgh last year. The Bills haven’t blown anyone out in weeks so they feel due for a big, easy win at home here. The Titans just can’t score enough.

Texans-Packers: I said my 2024 predictions would be horrible if these teams bombed, but they’re 4-2 and 5-1 right now. I’m siding with the Texans here, because I think the Packers have been feasting on turnovers, C.J. Stroud usually protects the ball, and the running game has looked very good with Joe Mixon in the game this year. I also trust Stroud more than Love in crunch time, so I think the Texans can win this one by a late score. Should be good.

Dolphins-Colts: I changed my gut pick here to Miami, a team that tends to win when I expect them to lose. But it’s mostly just that I don’t trust Anthony Richardson, especially without Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. Give me a Colts win if Joe Flacco was the QB, but that’s not the case (unless AR gets hurt again).

Seahawks-Falcons: Could be a good one, but I’m going to trust Atlanta at home as I just don’t trust the Seattle defense. They played bad offenses to start the season and have suffered injuries. Too much skill for Atlanta but it is a push candidate on the spread.

Lions-Vikings: Good spot to see how the Vikings play out of the bye week and how the Lions handle losing Aidan Hutchinson. But my belief is the Lions are going to be the best prepared team to face the Vikings after seeing them twice late in the 2023 season and winning both games. I think they get some turnovers from Sam Darnold, I think Jared Goff does enough against that Brian Flores’ defense, and the Lions keep rolling with a win.

Bengals-Browns: Nick Chubb is back and Kevin Stefanski owns the Bengals in his career. The only problem here is Deshaun Watson is the worst QB in the NFL still starting games. However, I’m going to hedge on the history here and at least give the Browns a chance to cover 5.5 at home. We know the Bengals are a lousy big favorite.

Eagles-Giants: I want to trust Saquon Barkley to have a big Revenge Game in a win. I feel better about it after he was shut down last week. Why? Week-to-week league. What was down last week goes up the next week. Plus I just don’t trust Daniel Jones to beat this team, something I don’t believe he’s done since 2021 when Jalen Hurts had maybe the worst game of his career in a 13-7 final.

Raiders-Rams: Isn’t Stafford contractually obligated to be in a close game every Sunday afternoon? I like the Rams to win, but I’m not trusting them with a 7-point spread.

Panthers-Commanders: Again, it’s time for big favorites to start regressing to the mean and crushing teams. The Commanders have some blowout wins and I just don’t think Panthers will keep up with that offense. Could be a 30-20 game.

Chiefs-49ers: Does the 11-game winning streak continue? We know the Chiefs are usually great after a bye, but the 49ers played last Thursday so it’s not as big of an advantage. Then again, they’ve had byes before two Super Bowls and the Chiefs always find a way to win against Shanahan in the Mahomes era. I could see the Chiefs slipping up here with JuJu popping up with a hamstring issue late in the week. But I also think Purdy holding the ball longer and getting less YAC this season could play into Spags’ hands with blitzes. Should be a good one I’m going to try to watch most of live. I’ll cautiously pick the Chiefs, because you know better than to doubt Mahomes as a road underdog.

Jets-Steelers: I’ll be picking the Jets regardless of which QB the Steelers start. I think Russ is the right call, but all week I’ve pegged this as a game where the Jets will score like 24-27 points and the Steelers will lose, causing people to blame the QB change while ignoring that Justin Fields is 0-22 when the team allows more than 20 points in his career. But I think Rodgers will be comfortable against this predictable defense barring a Watt monster game, and I expect Davante Adams to have an impact immediately. No game-losing INT to Mike Williams this week. Jets finally end the losing streak in what should be a close game.

Ravens-Bucs: Great potential here but I’m not liking the Mike Evans injury news. Sounds like he’ll play though. Ravens are just a tough matchup but at least they faced each other in 2022, so that’s somewhat recent. I’m trusting Lamar to improve to 23-1 against the NFC.

Chargers-Cardinals: No Chargers game has reached 40 total points this year, so the Harbaugh impact has been crazy in multiple ways. The Cardinals are a great 1Q offense before disappearing the rest of the game. Not expecting a ton from this one but I’ll cautiously back the Chargers for another win.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 4

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Another week closer to the reality that this is the NFL season where Sam Darnold won MVP. It’d be weirder than Brian Sipe winning it in 1980. Get your bets in now. I did earlier this week at +2800.

On the bright side, I think passing yardage may have increased in Week 4 as many of the quarterbacks you can still trust seemed to throw for 200 or more yards this time. Well, just ignore Sunday night, the supposed Game of the Week. That one lost the plot after one Derrick Henry run.

But I kind of called it during the late window that a Buffalo dud was going to set up a very messy AFC race on what could be a pivotal day for the conference. The Chiefs probably lost Rashee Rice for the season, the Bills looked really bad in their opportunity to lay claim to being the best team in the league right now, and it looks like Houston might be the only hope of breaking things up in January from being a Chiefs-Ravens-Bills tilt that will come down to seeding.

As for the NFC, I don’t know at this point. Might as well throw in some futures bets on a Commanders vs. Vikings NFC Championship Game. Who the hell knows anymore?

We had nine games with a comeback opportunity so far this week. I would imagine one or both Monday night games can add to that total.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Ravens: Game of the Week Is Dud of the Week

This game was over after 250 seconds. If you’re a Buffalo fan, it should bring back all your worst fears that this team is simply never going to get over the hump as it’s currently constructed.

Sean McDermott is a defensive coach, but he’s not overly conversative like you’d expect. The Bills like to go for it on fourth down, but they are inconsistent about it. That’s why you’ll see McDermott flex his chest on a 4th-and-1 call with Allen at his own 39. But God forbid it’s 4th-and-2 at the 50. Then we’re going to punt it away and pin them deep. Then Derrick Henry takes off for an 87-yard touchdown on the first play and it’s basically game over there.

After going down 14-3 to Henry’s first receiving touchdown since 2019, the Bills had another 4th-and-1 at their own 39, and guess what they did this time? They punted. All the Ravens did was take up half the quarter to score another touchdown and make it 21-3.

The only reason you stuck with the second half is because you know the Ravens stink at holding big leads. They blew a 17-point lead to the Bills in 2022 in Baltimore, so there was some hope.

Sure enough, Josh Allen makes a crazy 50-yard bomb from the sideline, Lamar Jackson starts taking grounding penalties and sacks, and the Bills are suddenly driving in a 21-10 game.

Then they threw it all away for nothing. With Curtis Samuel taking the direct snap, they tried a trick play by throwing it back to Allen, but he never got the ball off as the Ravens were all over him, and it ended up being a fumble that nearly injured Allen.

Six plays later, Jackson was in the end zone and the Ravens were up 28-10, ready to never look back before winning 35-10. There was just no need for a trick play there as the Bills had them reeling, and they’re not built to have to resort to tricks like that. The Ravens are missing plenty of normal assignments on defense this year.

Just an embarrassing display of coaching and game management by the Bills all night. They almost never get blown out, but they did here, their worst loss since their 27-10 playoff rout at home at the hands of the 2022 Bengals.

So much for it being Buffalo’s year. Not that this one game says it can’t be, but it sure didn’t look like a favorable matchup for Buffalo on either side of the ball, and that’s rare you’d ever say that about the Bills against anyone in the NFL.

But if the Ravens can play like this, then they can beat anyone. I’m just wondering why they can’t do this in January when they try to turn Lamar into Dan Marino when he’s just never going to be that. At 0-2, they have gone fully into leaning on Henry, Lamar’s legs, and he’s not even throwing more than 18 passes a game. Guess what? It’s working and they’re scoring points. You can’t do it every single week, but this is how they should be playing.

They understand that in September. Let’s see if they understand it in January too.

Chiefs at Chargers: Push It Real Bad

Mark this one on the calendar as it may be the moment where the Chiefs blew their three-peat opportunity.

After skipping the obligatory fumble last week in Atlanta, the Chiefs were quick to bring it back in LA thanks to Carson Steele, who probably just blew his shot at replacing Isiah Pacheco as the lead back. But it’s one thing for the Chiefs to have the obligatory fumble. This season, they’ve added Patrick Mahomes throwing an obligatory braindead interception in the first half as he did it for the fourth game in a row.

I don’t get it at all, because he otherwise is usually protecting the ball well and making good decisions. But just once a game he’s completely losing it with an awful throw, and this one was arguably the worst dropback of his career given the damage it caused.

Mahomes tried to make a tackle on the defender and ended up taking out Rashee Rice’s knee in the process by accident. I’d expect to hear season-ending news on Monday for Rice after that hit. Just a brutal loss for the receiving corps as Rice clearly emerged as their new No. 1 target with Kelce about to turn 35 and looking slower.

Things just got so much harder as this game showed. At the very least, they were playing the Chargers, who don’t want to hear about big injuries as they have their own. Justin Herbert wasn’t 100% and couldn’t move well in this game, and that hurt their ability to score as they never did again after taking that 10-0 lead on short fields from the takeaways.

To their credit, Mahomes found rookie Xavier Worthy for a 54-yard touchdown bomb. If he can run a fuller route tree, they might be able to survive the loss of Rice on top of losing Hollywood Brown. But it’s going to put a lot of pressure on Kelce to deliver at a high level again, and they probably still need another wideout as Skyy Moore is Kadarius Toney quality. He’s a game destroyer.

But while I have my doubts about Worthy turning into an asset like Rice did last year, his final catch to ice the game on third down boosted my confidence. If he can become a full route runner, then maybe they’ll find a way to manage. But their three-peat chances took a major hit. I might even say the division would have been in danger had the Chargers not botched these last two weeks by playing Justin Herbert in Pittsburgh when they should have been resting him to get to this more important, winnable game.

But maybe the best news for the Chiefs after a brutal game was seeing how vulnerable Buffalo looked in Baltimore. Their revamped offense sure didn’t look threatening in that game once you realize they’re relying heavily on Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and rookie Keon Coleman in that passing game. No one looks to be running away with this AFC, and it looks like mostly the same old foes. Is Derrick Henry going to run wild like that in January? Not likely. Not every week at least.

So, the Chiefs still have that edge over their rivals. But the injuries are piling up with Hollywood Brown, Pacheco, and now a huge one in Rice, who looked so good to start the season. Maybe it’s karma given he probably should have been suspended this season instead of the NFL waiting so long.

It’s still a lousy development if you had an interest in the three-peat happening. Watching this team each week, it gets harder to imagine things ending well this season. But maybe the script writers are playing the long game and have a vision in mind. A lot can happen between now and the playoffs, and somehow the Chiefs are still 4-0 along with the Vikings.

Steelers at Colts: The Full Justin Fields Experience

I called this one back in March when the Steelers made the bold trades to get rid of Kenny Pickett and acquire Justin Fields.

“You could call him Kenny “OneDrive” Pickett because if he only needed to score one touchdown to win the game, he wasn’t bad at doing it. Meanwhile, Fields was a nightmare in games even if he just had to set up a field goal attempt in a 3-point game.”

Pickett needed to go, but if there was one thing he was good at, it was delivering on the final drive to win the game. He was 7-4 (.636) on game-winning drive opportunities, an elite record. But Fields was 3-16 (.158), and we have seen him fail repeatedly in those situations in Chicago.

In drives that start in the final 10:00 when his team just needs a field goal, Fields is 2-for-17 at delivering a successful field goal drive. He’s 3-for-17 if you’re going to credit him for setting up a 65-yard field goal miss in Pittsburgh in 2021. One of those wins was in a game against the 2022 Texans where he started with the ball in the red zone after a Davis Mills interception, so he didn’t even have to do anything for that one. The other success was in Minnesota last year in a 12-10 game after Fields fumbled on the previous drive. But he was given another chance in that one.

Fields was able to hide his flaws in Weeks 1-3 when the Steelers were allowing 8.7 points per game. But similar to last year, Shane Steichen’s Colts were taking it to this defense. T.J. Watt was a ghost against that strong offensive line, and the Steelers were possibly fortunate that Joe Flacco had to finish the game as they got away from the run and deep passes that were killing Pittsburgh early. But once again, Anthony Richardson was injured on a run. With a bad hip, they watched him try to run the ball again only to slide late, show he was favoring that hip, and he took a helmet-to-helmet hit in the process. I really am doubting this guy’s long-term future in this league. He just can’t stay healthy on runs despite wanting to do it frequently.

Anyways, the Steelers allowed 27 points to the Colts, so it was going to take a superhuman effort from Fields. He definitely made some plays, and George Pickens sold him on a brutal fumble, but Fields had his own terrible fumble that was a game changer in the second half. He also had issues with the snap once again, a problem that’s been persistent since the preseason.

But similar to Chicago, Fields ran for some scores and it was a 27-24 game with the ball in his hands. Then just like in Chicago, he screwed things up without even getting into range for a kick. This time it was a near-fumble on a snap that he wasn’t ready for. Fields took the blame for it. It’s hard to say if he was being a good teammate or if he legitimately was the main reason the play happened, but again, this keeps happening since preseason. Just figure it out.

Fields could not rescue the drive after that fumbled snap set up a 2nd-and-22. The only reason his fourth-down pass wasn’t intercepted was because the defender, who didn’t need a catch there, dropped it. Tale as old as time.

Fields is 0-22 when his team allows more than 20 points in his career. I said in the offseason that the Steelers would falter in the close games they’re constantly in if Fields had to deliver game-winning drives, especially in higher-scoring games like this one. It was all on display on Sunday in Indy.

That’s why I would start Russell Wilson as soon as possible. We know what we’re getting with Fields, and it’s just not good enough. At least with Wilson, we know what’s been possible in the past, and we need to see if he can still be that guy here.

Saints at Falcons: Not the Worst Weekend in Georgia Football History After All

While Alabama was up big on Georgia on Saturday night, I tweeted that Derek Carr was going to lead a fourth-quarter comeback against the Falcons on Sunday.

Well, they were a minute away from securing it. But Kirk Cousins got the 30-yard penalty he needed on defensive pass interference to set up Younghoe Koo for the 58-yard game-winning field goal in a 26-24 thriller.

But make no mistake about it, the Saints gave this game away. Rashid Shaheed muffed a punt he probably had no business trying to catch, and it was recovered in the end zone for a (rare) touchdown. Carr threw a pick-six, so the Atlanta offense never found the end zone in this one despite the 26-24 score.

Then I also don’t get New Orleans’ strategy. Down 23-17, you’re going to run the ball on 3rd-and-goal from the 5 with under 5:00 left? Yeah, I understand you’re going to go for it on fourth down, but you better have a hell of a run that gains real yards there to make it worth it. Instead, Alvin Kamara had no blocking and lost 2 yards, setting up 4th-and-7. You almost wonder if the field goal was the better choice at that point, and Carr threw incomplete for Shaheed.

But Kamara finished the next drive in the end zone after the defense forced the three-and-out. You could see the Saints were suddenly thinking about the clock again as Carr’s feeble quarterback sneak attempts felt like someone who was trying to burn clock instead of scoring. That’s why the 6-point lead is such a shitty state to be in both offensively and defensively these days. You don’t want to score too soon on offense, because you fear losing to the long-range field goal from one of these kickers today that seemingly take little time to set up.

One DPI flag, and it was a fair call, and the Falcons were already in business. Koo delivered the kick and now both teams are 2-2 in the NFC South. The Saints are still winless when trailing in the fourth quarter since Carr arrived there last year, but they really should have won these last two games. Guess that’s why Dennis Allen is 5-26 in such games in his career.

Up next for the Saints is a trip to Kansas City next Monday night. Sure to do wonders for their fourth-quarter woes against the team no one can seem to kill.

Eagles at Buccaneers: Baker’s Day

I’m really not sure why the Eagles were a small favorite in this one on the road without A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson. That clearly had an impact as Jalen Hurts took 6 sacks, threw for 158 yards, barely ran, and Saquon Barkley achieved very little outside of his 59-yard run.

You’re not going to keep up with Baker Mayfield and all of Tampa Bay’s weapons with Dallas Goedert as your No. 1 target. The Buccaneers rolled over the Eagles with ease early and it would have been 28-0 if not for an easy dropped touchdown. But to that point, this was as big of an ass kicking as any game this season.

The Eagles got back into it at 30-16, including a 2-point return on a blocked extra point. But everything went downhill after Lavonte David forced a strip-sack of Hurts in the red zone as turnovers continue to plague him.

The receiver injuries are a big deal, but the sloppy play has been there all season for the Eagles. It wouldn’t surprise me if they let Nick Sirianni go if he misses the playoffs this year.

Vikings at Packers: Is Sam Darnold Really Going to Sustain This Run?

You might think a game that was 28-0 and ended 31-29 would be a little more exciting, but it felt like this was the game that would not end even though it never really felt like Green Bay was going to pull off the comeback.

Sure, anything is possible with the Minnesota franchise, but a 28-point Green Bay comeback? I’m not buying that even if Jordan Love seems more about these games than Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers ever did. But he needs to stop putting them in a hole as this was not a strong return for him from his MCL injury. He threw 4 touchdowns, but he also threw 3 interceptions and had to throw it 54 times.

The Vikings continued to be very efficient on offense with Sam Darnold in building that 28-0 lead. He got into some turnover trouble with this one, and the Packers have been great at that defensively so far, but when it was 28-22, Darnold delivered right away with a great drive for a field goal to regain that 2-score cushion at 31-22. A drive like that tells me something is different for him this year as that probably would have been turnover No. 3 by him in the past on that drive, leading to a loss.

By the time Green Bay scored again, only 56 seconds remained, and you know how onside kicks go these days. So, it was never officially a comeback opportunity since the Packers never had the ball down one score.

That makes Minnesota the only team this season to not have any close games in the fourth quarter by that criteria. Didn’t I predict them to go 4-13? They’re already 4-0. This is going to be a disaster for my predictions, but I guess we’ll see if it’s sustained or not. But the Vikings have wins over the 49ers, Texans, and Packers in three straight weeks.

It’s impossible to admit they’re not playing very well right now. Even if it’s one of the hardest things to explain.

Broncos at Jets: Forget Everything I Said This Week About the Jets

Can we just ban games at MetLife Stadium? The Giants couldn’t score a touchdown there Thursday night, the Cowboys struggled too, and then these teams threatened to set offensive football back 80 years with some rain hampering things.

But what an embarrassing 10-9 loss for the Jets, who were a 7.5-point favorite. Bo Nix was on his way to some futility records as he couldn’t even complete a pass beyond the line of scrimmage in the first half.

Nix really went into halftime with a line of 7-of-15 for minus-7 yards, which shouldn’t even be possible. But he led a long touchdown drive in the third quarter, then the running game did all the work on the game-winning drive for a 47-yard field goal by Wil Lutz.

Aaron Rodgers had three shots to answer this, but the pass rush kept getting to him, and he’s just not able to escape like he used to. People are going to point to Greg Zuerlein missing the 50-yard field goal with 47 seconds left as the reason for the loss, but let’s be fair. The Jets caught a break when Lutz missed a 50-yard field goal with 1:27 left, or else it would have been 13-9, and Rodgers would have needed a touchdown on a day he just couldn’t finish a drive off for one.

Rodgers was 37-1 in starts where his team allowed fewer than 13 points before this 10-9 loss. The only loss was a 7-3 game against Detroit in 2010 that Rodgers left early with a concussion, so he never lost a game he finished when the team allowed fewer than 12 points. That’s exactly the kind of game the Jets brought him here to win with ease, but it just didn’t work out Sunday.

Under this coaching staff, it’s hard to believe this won’t be the last time they disappoint in a low-scoring loss this year. But losing to a rookie quarterback who threw for 60 yards on 25 attempts is just beyond the pale.

Rams at Bears: They Popped a Run

I guess I screwed up with this one. I thought maybe Jared Verse and company would rack up some sacks on Caleb Williams, and they ended up getting 3 as Williams had arguably his most complete game without any turnovers. Very few incompletions.

It helped that they finally gave him a running game. D’Andre Swift was averaging 2.0 yards per carry, and he ripped off a 36-yard touchdown run in this one as he finished with 93 yards on 16 carries. Amazing what some balance can do there, or literally anything better than 2.0 yards per carry.

Definitely a letdown for the Rams after the comeback against the 49ers last week. But Matthew Stafford was in position for another one here with the ball in his hands in a 24-18 game with 1:03 left. Granted, he had to go 92 yards, so it probably wasn’t happening. But it could have at least been dramatic. Instead, he instantly threw a pick under pressure and that was a wrap for the 1-3 Rams.

Commanders at Cardinals: Best Rookie QB Ever?

Ask me for the best rookie quarterback seasons ever, and I’d say Ben Roethlisberger sold me first on that title in 2004. Then I have always given Dak Prescott credit for doing it every week as a fourth-round pick for the 2016 Cowboys. I thought Deshaun Watson, back when I liked him, was on pace for the best rookie quarterback season before he tore his ACL in practice in 2017. Then C.J. Stroud did something special last year.

But Jayden Daniels is doing something truly special here with Washington, and that could land him the title of best rookie quarterback ever if he keeps this up. I’ll get more into the stats later this week when I do my QB rankings at 365Scores, but Daniels ran his streak to 16 straight scoring drives (kneeldowns excluded) in this game. That is as far as we know the longest streak ever by a quarterback.

Again, maybe the dynamic kickoff is helping here as more drives than ever start at the 30, and we saw a 15-drive scoring streak by Derek Carr to begin this 2024 season. But Daniels has a super high completion percentage and he’s stacking points in an offense that wasn’t expected to be this great under new coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who suddenly looks like a genius again.

But they flat out cooked Arizona with 7-of-9 drives ending in scores. Daniels threw his first pick in the NFL, but that’s fine. He’s only punted once in the last three games.

Similar to last week, Kyler Murray led an opening-game touchdown drive and then did very little the rest of the way in the 42-14 loss. This was despite James Conner rushing for 104 yards and Marvin Harrison Jr. catching another touchdown. I know tight end Trey McBride was out with a concussion, but Murray has enough weapons to score more than 14 points and throw for more than 142 yards against that bad Washington defense.

But what a surprising 3-1 start by the Commanders. They get Cleveland next week at home, so it might be 4-1 too.

Browns at Raiders: Sack Merchant Goes Down Again

It’s difficult because I truly believe Antonio Pierce is not cut out for this job with this particular team. But they have scrappily come up with 10-point comeback wins in games they really had no business winning. The Browns were up 10-0 early while the Raiders were missing their two best players, Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby.

But the Raiders were patient with the running game that finally paid off with some production. The only eyesore was Zamir White coughing up a fumble for a touchdown to start the fourth quarter and give the Browns a shot after they were down 20-10.

However, Cleveland missed the extra point and keeping it 20-16 proved to be huge as they could never get the ball in the end zone the rest of the way. Deshaun Watson had his chances, but even without facing Crosby, the sack merchant in him came out in the end and he took a sack to end the game on a 4th-and-3 at the Vegas 9 with 35 seconds left.

They could have just kicked the field goal for overtime there had they not missed the extra point to start the fourth quarter. Oh well.

Bengals at Panthers: Cincinnati Finally Gets a Win

No, the Panthers did not stack wins, but let’s not forget the defense stinks too and they traded Brian Burns to New York. It would have helped to have a pass rusher like that to go after Joe Burrow, who did not take a sack. But he did throw an awful pick in the fourth quarter that gave the Panthers some hope after falling behind 31-14 at one point.

Andy Dalton may not be a miracle maker, but he is clearly better than Bryce Young right now. Seeing the Panthers score 24 points in consecutive games is a good sign that Dave Canales will get his offense right eventually in Carolina.

Came up short in this one, but you have to like the fight of the underdog. They had the ball in a 31-24 game late before Dalton threw three incompletions in a row in a disappointing drive with 4:23 left. The Bengals were able to stick to the ground game and added a decisive field goal with 1:14 left in the 34-24 win, their first of the year.

Lower the temperature on the hot seat for Zac Taylor, but let’s not get comfortable. They have to play the Ravens next week, so 1-4 may be in their near future. If Dalton and Chuba Hubbard are doing this to your defense a week after Jayden Daniels and Brian Robinson got you bad, good luck with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.

Jaguars at Texans: My MVP Delivers

Trevor Lawrence hasn’t won a start since that big game in Houston last year when it looked like the Jaguars would repeat as AFC South champions. What a change-up there with Houston being the team favored to do that this year. This win will help even if it wasn’t a dominant response after last week’s ugly loss to the Vikings.

It looked like Lawrence might end the streak as the Jaguars were up 20-17 and driving for more when the fourth quarter started. I fully agree with running Lawrence on 4th-and-1 at the 1, but they just didn’t make it happen. Huge stop by Houston.

I think C.J. Stroud did a great job overcoming 12 penalties for 93 yards by Houston. That made things really hard in the fourth quarter when you’re facing 2nd-and-25, 3rd-and-18, and 3rd-and-20 because of these penalties on your linemen. There were a couple of big holds on Laremy Tunsil, who was hurt at one point in the game.

It wasn’t looking good when Houston had to punt with 3:51 left, but the Jaguars only burned 57 seconds off the clock thanks to a pair of incompletions by Lawrence. The Texans avoided any more penalties, and Stroud was able to drive 69 yards for the game-winning touchdown with 18 seconds left.

The Jaguars were very close to a safety on the final lateral-filled play, which would have hit the over and covered the spread for Houston. Bummer. I’ll have to check the air yards update, but it did continue the trend of Lawrence losing another game after he completed under 60% of his passes (18-for-33 after a good start).

But having a quarterback like Stroud is a huge advantage for Houston over much of the AFC. Someone you can actually trust with the game on the line. At least we think so. This is his fourth game-winning drive already, and the team is 5-2 in game-winning drive opportunities under coach DeMeco Ryans.

Patriots at 49ers: Finally, a Blowout in an Expected Blowout

The 49ers (-10.5) were our first double-digit spread of the season, my No. 1 pick this week, and they delivered with a 30-13 win that still left you wanting a bit more from the offense. They leaned on a great Fred Warner pick-six, a dominant pass rush against that poor line, and George Kittle made an unbelievable touchdown catch in his return game.

But not great play inside the 25-yard line by the 49ers on offense. It’s nothing to be worried about, and at least they seemed to get through this one healthy. That’s the most important thing right now.

Next week: Bucs-Falcons on Thursday night isn’t bad. Not sure I will get up that early for Jets-Vikings after the shitshow the Jets put on this week. Sleep is more important to me. The first Ravens-Bengals game of the year is a big one. Buffalo at Houston in the same 1:00 p.m. slot is interesting as that’s stacked for the AFC. The Sunday late-afternoon slate looks absolutely brutal. Consider this a trigger warning. Cowboys at Steelers for SNF is interesting; can go a lot of ways. Saints-Chiefs on Monday night. Again, can the team that can’t lose a close 4Q game actually lose one to the team who can’t come back in the 4Q anymore? Sounds like a regression opportunity.

NFL Stat Oddity: Super Bowl LVIII

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

Super Bowl LVIII was in fact a race to 24 points, but I’m not sure anyone imagined we would be 3 seconds away from double overtime, making this the longest Super Bowl ever played by game time (74:57).

But the Kansas City Chiefs are all about making history. It has been that way since Patrick Mahomes took over as the full-time starter in 2018, and it is only fitting that this team is now officially an NFL dynasty with 3 Super Bowl wins in the last 5 seasons. The longest drought in NFL history without a repeat champion is over at 18 seasons (2005-22).

The Chiefs have done it a little differently each time, though the ending that links all three has been Mahomes rallying the team back from a 10-point deficit in the Super Bowl and being named MVP. He joins Bart Starr (1966-67) and Terry Bradshaw (1978-79) as the only players to win Super Bowl MVP in back-to-back years.

But 2023 was just a season-long epic performance from Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, fairly reliable special teams, and Mahomes’ receivers did not screw up the games in the postseason like they did in the regular season. Ending things with a touchdown pass to Mecole Hardman, one of those scrutinized targets, was just the cherry on top to another year where the Chiefs beat the odds to finish with a championship.

This was a wild Super Bowl. If you ask me:

  • First 42 minutes – a bottom 5 Super Bowl all time with a bunch of fumbles (indoors to boot) and drive-killing plays
  • Last 33 minutes – a top 5 Super Bowl all time with 7 straight scoring drives to end it (minus a kneeldown)

I’d like to try to get into bed by 8 AM, so let’s jump into the recap and put this season to rest after another historic Super Bowl.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

The First Quarter: Scoreless

The 49ers came out strong doing exactly the things I thought they needed to do to win this game. That meant quality runs by Christian McCaffrey and easy completions to help Brock Purdy’s nerves. They chewed up 46 yards in 4 snaps before an unexpected blunder when the Chiefs forced CMC to fumble at the Kansas City 27, and they were able to jump on top of it for a shocking turnover.

The Chiefs had that incredible streak going of 8 straight playoff games with an opening-drive score (6 TD, 2 FG), but that came to a screeching halt with a 3-and-out. It was almost doomed from the first snap when Isiah Pacheco was stuffed for a 3-yard loss. Little did we know the 1-yard screen to Travis Kelce would be his only catch of the first half.

While Kelce sorted himself out later, George Kittle never got going in a hugely disappointing game for the other star tight end in this matchup. Kittle had an 18-yard catch wiped out by a holding penalty on Trent Williams, who was also called for a false start before the play. When that sets up 2nd-and-27, you might as well forget it against this blitzing defense.

Penalties didn’t become a huge story on the night – thank God – with both teams getting flagged 6 times. The Chiefs actually had more penalty yardage than the 49ers (55-40), so we can put the conspiracy theories to rest on the Swifties getting the calls.

But right from the second drive you could see pass protection was going to be an issue for Mahomes. Left tackle Donovan Smith was beat cleanly for a sack by Chase Young, and the 49ers almost brought Mahomes down for another sack before he scrambled for 4 yards on 3rd-and-14 on another short drive.

While the quarter ended scoreless, the 49ers had a drive going and it was actually the secondary receivers who were making the big plays. Chris Conley (18 yards) and Ray Ray McCloud (19 yards) pulled in back-to-back plays that gained more yards than the Chiefs had in the entire first quarter (16 yards).

Things were looking like 4 years ago when the 49ers played very well on defense and the game swung on a crucial 3rd-and-15 in the fourth quarter. But so far, Purdy was holding up very well and Mahomes wasn’t able to get in a rhythm.

This was only the 10th scoreless first quarter in Super Bowl history. The previous 5 all involved the Patriots.

The Second Quarter: Strange

After Kansas City corner Trent McDuffie made a great play to prevent a long touchdown to Deebo Samuel, the 49ers decided to try a 55-yard field goal. I’ve been hammering on Jake Moody being problematic as a rookie kicker, but he made me eat crow in this game. He calmly hit a 55-yard field goal, which was a Super Bowl record (for the time being) to get the first points on the board.

I’ll bemoan the Chiefs and their short-yardage flaws later, but they were getting creative with Rashee Rice taking a handoff on a 3rd-and-1 to convert on the ground. He actually looked like he tried to pitch it forward on the play, which should have been a penalty in my book, but nothing was said or flagged. Instead, it goes down as a fumble in the play-by-play that the Chiefs recovered, a theme of the night as they would recover 6 of the 7 fumbles in this game.

After Rice’s odd play, Mahomes went deep and found Mecole Hardman for the longest play of the game at 52 yards, which was hilarious since he is usually so awful at tracking the ball in the air. But he made that play work and the Chiefs had life. However, Pacheco continued what turned out to be a bad game for him and he fumbled from the 9-yard line, making sure the obligatory fumble was alive and well for Kansas City.

This kicked off a series of strange events, including Kelce’s meltdown on the sideline where he approached coach Andy Reid and was visibly frustrated with not being on the field for the Pacheco fumble:

We know he’s an emotional player, but this was a bad look for Kelce. The Chiefs followed that play up with a horse collar tackle of Purdy, but the defense delivered with a third-down pressure that led to a sack of Purdy. The Chiefs lost out on points on the Pacheco fumble, but at least it was still 3-0.

But the pressure on Mahomes was becoming the story again in a Super Bowl. The next drive was torpedoed from the first snap when Mahomes was pressured, held onto the ball a bit too long, and he tried to throw the ball away in the vicinity of his receiver. The officials didn’t agree and flagged him for intentional grounding, bringing up a 2nd-and-20. That call was iffy. The drive ended with Mahomes scrambling again for a few yards to avoid a sack.

In the end, Mahomes ended up taking 3 sacks on the night, and it could have easily been double that or more. Keep in mind, the only game in Mahomes’ NFL career where he took 5 sacks was against the Cardinals in 2018. Their head coach was Steve Wilks, who is San Francisco’s defensive coordinator. Things were looking good for his unit so far in this one.

Unfortunately, the 49ers lost a very good linebacker in Dre Greenlaw prior to this drive when he injured his Achilles in a freak moment of celebration coming onto the field. I’ve never seen anything quite like this:

What an awful way for your season to end. But the Chiefs were starting to lose their composure with another 15-yard penalty going against L’Jarius Sneed on the ensuing drive. Two plays later, the 49ers dialed up a trick play with wide receiver Jauan Jennings making the long pass back to CMC, who was left alone for a 23-yard touchdown to take a 10-0 lead. Pretty play with a sweet camera angle like this:

Like clockwork, it’s a Chiefs’ Super Bowl with Patrick Mahomes and they’re down 10 points. It’s happened all four times now, but they obviously have the experience at winning these games.

After CEH was stuffed for no gain (predictable) and Hardman was flagged for a false start, Mahomes was facing a 3rd-and-9 at his 40 at the 2-minute warning. I saw this as the play of the game so far:

Mahomes had barely thrown the ball before this drive, but in the big moment, he bought himself time and found Justin Watson for 21 yards. Huge play as the 49ers were not able to manage the clock and really give themselves another shot to score before halftime. The Chiefs marched into the red zone, but their play calls were a bit odd with Rice getting another rush on 2nd-and-7. Mahomes took another sack on 3rd down and the Chiefs had to kick a 28-yard field goal, but at least it was points on the board.

The Chiefs could have done a lot worse than 10-3 at the half.

The Third Quarter: Turning Point

This game was always going to come down to the second half, and we had all those interesting stats to watch play out here:

  • The Chiefs allowed the fewest points after halftime
  • The 49ers scored the most points after halftime
  • The Chiefs scored the 3rd-fewest points after halftime
  • The 49ers allowed the 2nd-fewest points in the 4th quarter

With numbers like that and the way these teams have recently played, I thought maybe we’d see a role reversal and the 49ers would have to be the team trying to come back this time. But instead, it was business as usual with Mahomes trying to lead the Chiefs back.

Things got off to a horrendous start when on the first play of the half, Mahomes pitched back to Pacheco and he didn’t handle it and nearly caused a fumble, an unforced error. That made it 2nd-and-22, practically short-circuiting another KC drive on the first snap, something that happened a solid 3 or 4 times in this game. The pitch from Mahomes could have been better, but Pacheco was caught looking upfield early.

Two plays later, Mahomes made his only real mistake with an interception on a forced throw on 3rd-and-12. In the first half, his only 2 incompletions were the debatable grounding and a pass Justin Watson could have caught but didn’t. This was the first time Mahomes really put the ball in danger and missed.

But the 49ers did not make him pay for it from the Kansas City 44. They called 3 straight passes, had a false start in the mix, and Purdy ended up scrambling for 4 yards on 3rd-and-15 to end the drive with a punt. This is why many might say the 49ers lost this game in the third quarter when they failed to take advantage of moments like this and passed too much. There is some truth to that, but it’s also true that they needed more points to win, and CMC was getting stuffed pretty well ever since his fumble. Purdy looked like he was handling the moment fine, but the Chiefs did get creative and relentless with their 3rd-down blitz packages.

But this was turning into a really lousy Super Bowl at this point with the teams unable to move the ball. The Chiefs went 3-and-out again after Pacheco was stuffed on a 3rd-and-1, because they refuse to run the tush push or normal quarterback sneak.

Purdy tried to create something with a pass to Jennings, but he lost 8 yards and killed the drive for another 3-and-out.

At this point, Mahomes started to take matters into his own hands, or more accurately – his own legs. He scrambled for 4 yards to convert a 3rd-and-4, then he took off by design for 22 more yards. But the drive stalled and Harrison Butker made sure Moody’s record didn’t hold up for 2 full quarters as he nailed a 57-yard field goal to make it 10-6.

The kickers at least showed up to play.

This game really needed a spark as the teams went back to trading 3-and-out drives. I was thinking the Chiefs were now going to win 13-10, fueling the conspiracy theories about it being fixed – 13 is Taylor Swift’s lucky number – and taking away one of my favorite stats where Tom Brady is the only quarterback to win a Super Bowl scoring 13 points. Actually, he did it twice too if you consider the offense only scored 13 in Super Bowl 36 against the Rams.

But with just under 3 minutes left in the quarter, we had our turning point on a real fluke of a play.

The 49ers were trying to field the punt, it grazed the heel of a San Francisco player, and McCloud did not make a great effort to pick up the ball. The Chiefs got it instead and were only 16 yards away from the lead. Mahomes immediately found MVS wide open for a go-ahead touchdown and the game was on at 13-10.

After the Chiefs took their first lead of the game, this really woke everyone up and led to one of the greatest finishes in Super Bowl history.

The Fourth Quarter: Back and Forth

We know even a 3-point deficit to start the fourth quarter is usually a deathblow for a Kyle Shanahan team in San Francisco. But things have been different this postseason, and they were driving again behind Purdy this time.

But what a ballsy call Shanahan made that will largely be forgotten because of the loss. Facing a 4th-and-3 at the Kansas City 15 with 12:46 left, Shanahan had his offense go for it and bypassed the game-tying field goal. I have to say I probably would have kicked it given the low-scoring game and the fact it was 3 yards to go, and you weren’t even in goal-to-go. A lot of risk with that call, but Purdy found Kittle, and he made his only real positive contribution of the game as a receiver with a 4-yard conversion.

Two snaps later, Purdy found Jennings over the middle and he fought his way into the end zone for a 10-yard touchdown to regain the lead. Could it really be possible that Jennings would win Super Bowl MVP with his touchdown pass and touchdown catch? I really think it would have happened if the 49ers held on to win in regulation, but a lot of time remained (11:22).

Also not good was Kansas City blocking the extra point, keeping it a 16-13 game. We could argue this ended up benefitting the 49ers later as it made the Chiefs feel content with a field goal to tie the game on the next drive instead of having to go for a touchdown on 4th down. Mahomes was sacked again on 3rd-and-goal at the 3, making the field goal a no-brainer in a 16-13 game for the Chiefs.

All things considered, I’d still much prefer to be up 17-13 and make the Chiefs go for a touchdown as they have had some issues with the red zone at times this year. Also, you never know when a low snap will derail their drive as that was a problem in this game again, and it was nearly a disaster with just under 10 minutes left. Mahomes had to field the poor snap and throw the ball away, narrowly avoiding another turnover. Creed Humphrey is a 2-time Pro Bowl center, but someone needs to work on his shotgun snaps with him because this is past the point of ridiculous.

We were tied again with 5:46 left. It wouldn’t be easy, but the 49ers had a chance to work the clock and kick a game-winning field goal with no time left. The Chiefs were down to 2 timeouts after Reid wasted one early in the third quarter to set up a Pacheco run on 3rd-and-1 that failed. In fact, that sequence was nutty as he could have challenged a possible bad spot on a Kelce catch that brought up that 3rd-and-1, but instead he just wasted a timeout for nothing. It really could have haunted the Chiefs here as the 49ers came so close to making this the knockout drive and finally delivering a Super Bowl ring to Shanahan.

A pass to Kittle for no gain was not an ideal outcome, but the play took so long that the 49ers did not have to run another play until the 2-minute warning, which was huge. This basically put the game on a 3rd-and-5 at the Kansas City 35. If the 49ers could convert, they could run out most of the clock on the Chiefs and kick the winning field goal.

But Spags sent another blitz and Trent McDuffie was the hero with a pass defensed in Purdy’s face. According to Next Gen Stats, Kansas City’s blitzing led to 9 unblocked pressures, their most in any game this season, and none were bigger than that one by McDuffie.

Again, credit Moody for silencing the critics with a 53-yard field goal. He played a great game. The 49ers led 19-16 and it was like watching a reverse of the 1988’s season Super Bowl when Joe Montana broke the Cincinnati Bengals’ hearts for the 49ers in a 20-16 comeback win.

Mahomes was going to have his moment with 1:53 and 2 timeouts left, an eternity for him to drive 75 yards for the winning touchdown. He made getting into field goal range look easy, but things perked up for the touchdown when he found Kelce on a 3rd-and-7 for 22 yards, getting out of bounds at the San Francisco 11 with 10 seconds left.

Kelce had 1 yard at halftime and still finished the game with 93 yards, his 13th-striaght playoff game with at least 70 yards (next closest is 7 games).According to Next Gen Stats, Kelce reached a top speed of 19.68 miles per hour on that 22-yard gain, his fastest speed in the last 7 seasons. That’s a pretty good argument for “wanting it more” on the big stage with your super-famous girlfriend watching.

But there wasn’t a Hollywood ending with Kelce catching the winning touchdown in regulation. The Chiefs only really had one shot at it, and while Mahomes went to Kelce, the play wasn’t there and they had to kick the field goal. Butker did his job from 29 yards out and we were getting overtime as Purdy took a knee with 3 seconds left.

Overtime: Underthinking the New Rules?

I have been wanting to see an overtime playoff game ever since they changed the rules two seasons ago. The irony is they changed them because of the way the Chiefs beat Buffalo in that 42-36 game in the divisional round. The Chiefs tied it in 13 seconds, they won the coin toss, drove down the field for a walk-off touchdown and Josh Allen, in his finest moment, never saw the ball again.

We can’t keep letting that happen just as it should have changed after Super Bowl LI ended that way between the Falcons and Patriots, and then again two years later when these Chiefs lost that way to the Patriots in the 2018 AFC Championship Game.

So, the Chiefs have been on both sides of this, but now they were in uncharted territory with the new rules allowing for both teams to get a possession even if there’s a touchdown. Well, a safety on the opening drive ends it too as would a defensive return touchdown. It’s a little weird to talk about, but the heart of the rule change is definitely in the right spot and we should see more fair outcomes like this was.

But new rules should mean new strategies, and I’m not sure Shanahan and the 49ers thought this one through in overtime.

In college, the common strategy is to go on defense first because you’ll know what you need on offense. I have to think that translates a lot here in the NFL’s new overtime system too. I think you go first on defense so you know what you need, and you can get it by playing 4-down football with no time rush at all. That means 4 plays to get 10 yards the whole way, and it doesn’t matter if the clock expires and you’re still trailing. The game will just go to overtime No. 2.

At least that’s my understanding of it now. During the game, I was not sure about the clock situation, and I know I wasn’t alone in that.

But in getting back to the strategy, I just don’t think you can realistically give Mahomes the ball last. Even if you get a touchdown and lead by 7 points, they can march down, score the touchdown, and go for 2 and the win and you never see the ball again. That is allowed, so the argument of “you get the first crack at a second possession” doesn’t sit well with me when Mahomes is the opponent.

Plus, if you go first like San Francisco, you are rather limited by more conventional, 3-down football. You are more likely to kick a field goal if it’s available. That’s just the nature of the game.

I also don’t buy the “49ers needed to rest the defense” argument. The Chiefs did run 11 more plays in the second half, but the 49ers won time of possession for the game (38-36 minutes). You really couldn’t handle a 2-minute drill that involved 2 timeouts, which was followed by another couple minute break before overtime?

And there is no guarantee of rest. The 49ers were about to go 3-and-out in overtime if not for a weak holding penalty on McDuffie on a 3rd-and-13 incompletion. They would have been right back on that field and with the Chiefs only needing a field goal if not for that call.

Like I said, if the Chiefs go first, they are going to be a little more careful and conservative, not always using 4 downs and going for the kill with the touchdown. With the game Pacheco was having, let them run more conventional plays instead of putting the game in Mahomes’ hands. Then even if Mahomes drives for a touchdown, you know they’re kicking the extra point. You get it back, down 7, and you can go win it with 8 and take your time in the process.

I just think it was absolutely the wrong call by San Francisco to go on offense first against Mahomes. You might get away with that against Burrow or Lamar. Not this quarterback.

Sure enough, the 49ers did not finish the job. They reached the Kansas City 9 before McCaffrey was stuffed, then another pressure by Chris Jones forced Purdy to throw the ball away, bringing out the field goal team on 4th-and-4. If they were more aggressive or behind, they are going for that 4th-and-4. But given the situation, it is practically impossible to bypass that field goal, so you take it and pray the Chiefs screw up or you get the ball again.

By the way, the 49ers were 3-of-12 on 3rd down while the Chiefs were 9-for-19. That mattered a lot too.

With 7:22 left, Mahomes was 75 yards away from one of the biggest legacy drives in NFL history. He could join the exclusive club of 3 Super Bowl winners, and it is the first time in NFL history we’ve ever seen a trailing team with the ball in overtime of the Super Bowl.

But it almost ended in 4 snaps. Pacheco was stuffed on another 3rd-and-1 run, and that’s when I thought this team’s refusal to run the quarterback sneak was going to cost them a championship. They just will not do it with Mahomes because he dislocated his kneecap in a freak accident play in Denver in 2019. It’s chickenshit logic that reminds me of how my uncle won’t eat kielbasa (unless it’s Easter or Christmas) because he ate a piece of glass from a package of it decades ago. Apparently, they screen out all the glass for holidays.

On 4th-and-1, season on the line, the Chiefs did put the ball in Mahomes’ hands, but it was on a keeper and he ran for 8 yards to save the game. Then MVS tried to give up the repeat bid on the next snap. Instead of cutting his losses on a play, he kept running backwards and lost 3 yards to set up 2nd-and-13. At least he made up for it with a 7-yard gain, then Mahomes found Rice to settle things down for 13 yards on 3rd-and-6.

Another 3rd-and-1 came up, and it was another scramble by Mahomes for 19 yards into the red zone that started to make this ending feel predictable, or inevitable with Kansas City. Pacheco ran for 3 more yards, Kelce caught a short one and took it 7 yards as you could see he wanted the touchdown so bad.

But that made it 1st-and-goal at the 3, and the clock just continued to tick down. Honestly, I wasn’t sure if the game was about to end or go to another overtime at this point, because the idea of a clock expiring with a team still trailing and the game continuing just doesn’t compute for me in the NFL (or NBA).

I found out after the game the rule is that if the second team’s initial possession has not been completed yet, the game does extend to a second overtime. So that’s that.

But with the Chiefs playing it casually and the 49ers not calling a timeout, the ending was almost anticlimactic as Mahomes hit Hardman with one of those uncovered passes to the flat they beat the Eagles with a year ago. Enjoy the Korean call of it:

After berating the wide receivers since Week 1, we watched Mahomes complete 9-of-13 passes for 131 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Super Bowl to the trio of Mecole Hardman, MVS, and Justin Watson. Meanwhile, Purdy was 8-of-20 for 86 yards throwing to his stud trio of Deebo, Kittle, and Aiyuk. That was largely the ballgame as CMC did finish with 80 yards on the ground and 80 through the air. Jennings stepped up. The run defense stepped up against Pacheco. The pass rush was very strong early for the 49ers before Mahomes started finding rushing lanes to exploit.

There wasn’t a singular moment this time as much as in LIV when Mahomes finding Tyreek Hill on 3rd-and-15 was the difference maker. But the 49ers had a few chances to put this game away and just didn’t do it.

That Shanahan, always a bridesmaid. I think he should have kicked off in overtime. Instead, we watched Mahomes become the first quarterback in NFL history with multiple walk-off touchdown passes in the postseason. He was the last to do it under the old rules, and he’s the first to do it in the first game with the new rules.

That is some king shit. So is having three of the top 5 postseasons in QBR for a Super Bowl-winning quarterback since 2006:

With 333 passing yards, 66 rushing yards, and 2 touchdown passes, Mahomes won his third Super Bowl MVP award. He is the only player to win that award for 3 consecutive rings won. Even Joe Montana needed to reach a fourth after Jerry Rice won the MVP for his third ring. Tom Brady’s third ring saw Deion Branch win the Super Bowl MVP against the 2004 Eagles.

Montana, Brady, and Mahomes all won their third Super Bowl in a season where they beat the No. 1 scoring defense on the road in the Conference Championship round.

But the 2023 Chiefs are the first team to ever beat 4 teams in the same postseason that had a +100 scoring differential in the regular season. They did this despite not being one of those teams themselves as they were only +77.

But after trailing the Bengals 17-7 in Week 17, the offense hit a switch, and it reached a level it could win games at with this defense providing a stellar performance since Week 1. The Chiefs never gave up more than 27 points in any game this season, and they even held all but one opponent under 25 points. You’re not going to put this defense on a historic level with the 2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccaneers, or 2013 Seahawks, but they were legitimately great this year and helped the team overcome one of the toughest postseason paths anyone has taken to a Super Bowl win.

You can say this is a team that got hot at the right time and carried that all the way to a Super Bowl win. But unlike the 2011 Giants or 2012 Ravens, this team has staying power and can do it again. This is closer to the 1988 49ers shaking off a 10-6 regular season and winning the third Super Bowl in the Joe Montana era, and we know what kind of encore that team had in 1989.

Conclusion: Yes, It’s a Dynasty and Mahomes Is 1-of-1

It’s been 19 long years, but we can finally add another dynasty to the annals of NFL history. The Chiefs were the expected pick to replace the Patriots for this years ago, but they gave us pause on multiple occasions since winning that first Super Bowl right around the time the world was starting to face a global pandemic with COVID-19.

They lost 31-9 to the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV. They blew a 21-3 lead to the Bengals a year later at home in the AFC Championship Game. Then I thought last year would be the crowning achievement of Patrick Mahomes’ career, winning that Super Bowl with an MVP season and top offense after losing Tyreek Hill, then navigating that playoff run on a high-ankle sprain.

But this season was almost more impressive in some ways. He didn’t play as well individually, but he hung in there through the rough losses, the league-leading wide receiver drops, the excessive penalties and fumbles, and he knew he could trust the defense this time. Then they got it done on the road in the playoffs twice after never having to leave Arrowhead in January before. They took down both No. 1 seeds. They came back from 10 points down in this game. He had nearly 400 yards of offense and was flawless in overtime.

I always ask what is Mahomes’ weakness? I don’t think in 114 starts he has shown one yet. You have a better chance if you can make him hold the ball and throw low-percentage passes down the field, but we’ve also seen him destroy some teams by extending the play. Even in this game, I think that 3rd-and-9 conversion to Watson at the 2-minute warning in the first half was a game-changing moment to keep the Chiefs alive.

In all of NFL history, we have not seen a quarterback play this well so consistently while still being able to win at such a high level as often as Mahomes has. Usually, dynasties were stacked on defense, or they could run the ball really well, or they just didn’t have to rely on the quarterback as much. But the Chiefs are an outlier because their quarterback might just be 1 of 1 in this game.

My interest in the NFL was starting to wane in the 2017 season. Maybe it was the 7-year itch or burnout of covering this stuff 52 weeks a year with no real breaks. Getting into gambling helped some that year, but Mahomes taking over for the Chiefs in 2018 and instantly turning this into a historic team that’s always setting some record has rejuvenated my interest more than anything.

I want to make sure Mahomes and the Chiefs are being covered properly for their place in history. So, when a big game like this one comes up, I put things into perspective for what a win or loss means for the team. When Mahomes is telling CBS in his pre-game taped interview that dynasty is the goal, and Jim Nantz starts off the 6:00 p.m. broadcast window with dynasty talk, it was the big story of the night. The Chiefs would hands down be a dynasty with a third championship in five seasons.

But if they had lost this game? Then you start having people looking differently at a team that’s only 2-2 in the Super Bowl, and at a quarterback who had 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in those Super Bowls before the blocked punt changed the dynamics of this game. Suddenly it’s “what if Purdy didn’t get injured in Philly last year; he might be 2-0 in the Super Bowl and have more rings than Mahomes.”

You nip that talk in the bud by performing and winning the game, which he did again. Does it take some luck too like a muffed punt off a teammate’s heel? Does it take a defense stopping a great offense repeatedly on third down, and a kicker you can rely on for a long field goal? Yeah, it takes some combo of that too, every time.

It wouldn’t be the ultimate team game without those things. But where I take issue is when people still try to belittle his accomplishments by poorly comparing and equating them to some of the only quarterbacks you can even still compare Mahomes to as a 2-time MVP and 3-time Super Bowl MVP.

They’ll say Mahomes doesn’t win without his defense this year. Yeah, as if Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, Troy Aikman, and Tom Brady were winning shootouts all the time and didn’t almost exclusively have top 10 defenses when they won their rings. Meanwhile, Mahomes is the only quarterback to win a Super Bowl when his team allowed 25 points per game in the postseason, and he’s done it twice. That number was much lower this year (15.8), but he still can’t hold a candle to Montana, who won 3 rings in postseasons where the 49ers did not allow more points than the 35 the Eagles scored in last year’s Super Bowl.

They’ll say Mahomes threw a pick in this game. But will they note it was on 3rd-and-12 and the 49ers went 3-and-out from midfield with it? It’s not like he threw a pick-6 to Robert Alford to fall behind 21-0. Will they acknowledge their King of Kings from New England, even in his best Super Bowl moment against the 2003 Panthers, threw a terrible red-zone pick midway through the fourth quarter when he could have taken a 2-score lead? Or that his game-winning drive that day started at the 40-yard line in a tied game after John Kasay sailed the kickoff out of bounds? Not quite driving 75 yards for the touchdown while facing a deficit in overtime, is it?

Also, will they ever acknowledge Montana had 4 turnovers before The Catch happened in the 1981 NFC Championship Game? Still put up enough points and won the game with a clutch drive, didn’t he? That used to be enough for the old days, but you know they fear Mahomes when they have to treat him differently and start holding him to standards they never put the past greats through.

But he keeps finding ways to succeed, and he should be the new standard for quarterback play if we are being honest about things. Does that mean he’ll win a lot more rings going forward? That will depend on what the rest of the league does more than anything. But I never believed for a second that Mahomes needs to win 7 or 8 Super Bowls to be the GOAT.

He’s up to 3 before his 29th birthday. He has some wiggle room as the LOAT did not win his 4th until he was 37 years old. Mahomes can win next year for the first 3-peat in the Super Bowl era. If he can do that, then win a fifth down the road without Reid and Kelce, I don’t see how anyone can reasonably deny him, assuming he’s also not done winning MVP awards and setting the pace for the most yards and touchdown passes in NFL history.

Mahomes and the Chiefs are a historic team, and that keeps me interested in the future to see where this story grows and goes. This was my 13th season of coverage, and it was a challenging one. I was dealt a personal shock in August, just 3 days after one of my oldest cats died, that I still am not really over. I guess you can say I should have researched this girl I thought I knew for the last 6-7 years as well as I’ve researched Mahomes for his 7 seasons as an NFL quarterback. Be careful who you trust in this world. There aren’t many people who are genuinely looking out for your best interests.

Then it seems like I’ve been sick every day since December, which is why I’ve had so many short posts on here for prediction pieces on the weekend because I usually didn’t feel that great. Just a lot of sinus stuff with sneezing attacks, then I got the flu in January for a couple of weeks, and I’m still coughing at times from that.

Hopefully there isn’t another pandemic brewing since the Chiefs took down the 49ers in the Super Bowl again, just like when COVID started four years ago.

I’m not sure what my offseason plans include, but I expect to be back for another season of NFL coverage. It is a grind, though. I’d love to make use of the next 7 months to also make sure I’m taking care of my mental and physical health better, since that can go ignored during the grind of the season.

But the offseason always hits better when the Super Bowl outcome was to your liking. At least I got closure from something I love this year.

NFL Super Bowl LVIII: 49ers vs. Chiefs Predictions

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The buildup for the Super Bowl seems to get longer every year. But we made it to another one this weekend, and I think the potential is there for a great game between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.

I’ve been writing a ton of articles the last 2 weeks, including some that have nothing to do with this game like the top 5 Super Bowl matchups we didn’t get. I’m burned out a bit and just eagerly awaiting tomorrow’s game that will kick off 24 hours from the minute I’m writing this paragraph.

Super Bowl Articles:

I think that’s all of them.

Super Bowl LVIII Picks

One more time this season, here are my bets for the big game:

After 2 weeks and many hours of research and thousands of typed words, the game comes down to this for me:

Can the 49ers get a dominant game out of Christian McCaffrey to attack the weakness of the KC defense and help protect the nerves of Brock Purdy and the weakness of the offense (pass protection) against a top pass rush and set of corners?

I really think that is the main story in the game and a matter of attacking the Chiefs like Buffalo did with safe passes that move the chains thanks to a steady run game too. Purdy needs easy completions and to not be facing that blitz all night cause he will make mistakes that lose the game for San Francisco. Ride CMC here.

On the other side, same as it ever was. Can the Chiefs avoid or at least severely limit the mistakes that plagued them in their losses this year with drops by the WRs, penalties by the WR/OT, and fumbles by everyone? Can they stop calling the gadget shit and just run a normal play to extend a drive? Can they keep Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney’s asses on the sideline for any offensive snaps?

If the Chiefs protect the ball, they have a great chance to repeat here. But it’s such an interesting matchup of recent trends vs. season trends here. Not just the ball security stuff, but the way the Chiefs allowed the fewest points after halftime, scored the 3rd-fewest too, and the 49ers scored the most points after halftime while allowing the 2nd-fewest 4th quarter points. That points to a San Francisco team that can come back this time like they did in the first two playoff games, and it may be the Chiefs who are leaning on defense to close things out this time.

Or it could just revert back to their old ways. The front-running 49ers under Kyle Shanahan get out to a double-digit lead like all 3 teams that have faced Mahomes in the Super Bowl have done, but the Chiefs have that ability to string together scores and come back. Definitely going to be fun to see which game script wins out here.

I keep coming down on my score predictions. My gut was 30-27 on Championship Sunday night. Then I came down to 27-23 where I thought I’d stay at. But now I’m thinking it’s the 24-20 final that Super Bowl LIV should have had before Damien Williams had to cost me a $400 win on my Chiefs by exactly 4 bet with a touchdown he didn’t need to make it 31-20. But 24-20 is the kind of score the Chiefs have flirted with often in big games this year, and usually they came out on the wrong end (Lions, Eagles, Bills). This time I think they make the big play in the 4th quarter.

Did I mention all of those scores (30-27, 27-23, 24-20) had the Chiefs winning? It actually scares me just how easily I’ve picked KC the whole 2 weeks here. I usually have an easy time setting them up as a legit underdog where I’m quite skeptical they’ll win the game. But for some reason, I just feel confident about this one, and that bugs me a lot.

But I just think Purdy has the big game mistakes you expect from a young QB in this spot, and the Chiefs have been so reliable on defense this year. This shouldn’t be a 38-35 game like last year, but the Chiefs won that too with Mahomes on a high-ankle sprain and now he’s healthy for this one. I just think it’s hard to bet against him, but I do see the path for a San Francisco victory. I’m just not trusting their defense enough to take it. If you gave this offense the 2019 San Francisco defense, then hands down I am picking the 49ers to win this game. But that’s just not the case in 2023.

I’ll be back tomorrow night with a season-ending recap of it all. Hopefully it’ll be a memorable night cause the more I see the TD odds getting worse for CMC and the field, the more worried I am we’re getting some 17-9 dud as this season has been filled with island game disappointments. But let’s think positively and that both teams will score at least 20 points and give us a lot to talk about.

Final: Chiefs 24, 49ers 20 (Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes)