Tag: Super Bowl 60

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Super Bowl LX

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

Super Bowls are won in the trenches. Defense wins championships. Schedule merchants need not apply.

The New England Patriots almost rode their Most Valuable Schedule to the promised land. But in one of the most emphatic repudiations in NFL playoff history, the Patriots were shellacked 29-13 in Super Bowl LX by the Seattle Seahawks.

It’s almost laughable that the final box score looks as close as it does. The Seahawks barely won the yardage battle (335-331), they only had two more first downs, (20-18), did worse on third downs (4-of-16 vs. 6-of-15) by 15 percentage points, and if you didn’t know any better, you’d think this was a close game until it was blown open by its only three turnovers, all from the Patriots in the final 16 minutes, including a pick-six.

But this really wasn’t close. The Seahawks kept settling for field goals while forcing the Patriots to punt eight times in a row (ignoring the kneeldown for halftime). Then the game’s first turnover happened in the final minute of the third quarter in predictable fashion (a Drake Maye strip-sack), and that led to the only offensive touchdown for the Seahawks from 37 yards out to make it 19-0 with 13:24 left.

It was only in those final 13:24 when Maye passed for 235 yards, reportedly the most in any quarter in Super Bowl history (Doug Williams had 228 in the second quarter of Washington’s 42-10 rout of the 1987 Broncos). But Maye also had 130 of those yards after his pick-six made it 29-7 with 4:27 left. Garbage time intensifies.

That means Maye had 21 net passing yards in the game’s first 46 minutes. He was the one seeing ghosts, and now Sam Darnold is a Super Bowl champion, and we have to deal with the fallout of people thinking the Seahawks are a legendary team after one of the strangest seasons in NFL history.

But I can’t say the ending wasn’t satisfying as it would have been terrible for all discourse if this New England schedule was rewarded with an MVP award for Maye and a Super Bowl ring for that organization. Not this way.

For one last time until September, let’s recap the game with brutal honesty.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Seahawks vs. Patriots: The Young Pup Bowl

Before the game even started, I had some people confused on Twitter when I said this was the lowest-stakes Super Bowl since 2000 Ravens vs. Giants. I may have even been generous there as 2000 was about Baltimore solidifying itself as an all-time great defense, a reputation it’d keep up throughout the rest of Ray Lewis’ career as a franchise led by its defense. Then you can argue 1999 had the same impact on Kurt Warner and the GSOT Rams.

But the point I was making was that Super Bowls are about building legacies. Look at the Super Bowls since and you had Warner and those Rams trying to become a dynasty in 2001, only to give birth to one for the Patriots where every subsequent appearance meant more legacy building for Brady and Belichick. Then you had moments like 2005 when Bill Cowher and Jerome Bettis really needed to finish that road trip with a ring to lock up their Canton busts while Mike Holmgren could have solidified his own if he became the first coach to win a Super Bowl for two different teams.

Year after year, more of the same like when top-tier quarterbacks had to make sure they solidified their legacy with a ring in their first Super Bowl appearance like Peyton Manning (2006), Drew Brees (2009), Aaron Rodgers (2010), and Patrick Mahomes (2019) all did.

Last year, it was all about the three-peat for the Chiefs and how legendary that would make that team while the Eagles were looking for revenge from two years earlier. Big-time stuff.

All that legacy stuff? Practically absent from this matchup with it being Year 1 for these quarterback-coach duos with these teams, and most of their star players are either too young (JSN, Milton Williams, Witherspoon, Byron Murphy, etc.) for legacy talk or it’s veterans like DeMarcus Lawrence, Cooper Kupp (too many injuries), or Stefon Diggs who really have no shot at the HOF either way.

Two quarterbacks still in their twenties who aren’t going to be rushed into the elite class with a win except for the efforts by the New England fanbase and media to do so for Maye. But boy, after the postseason Maye just had? They need to walk that the fvck back some.

So, if you thought this Super Bowl lacked some sizzle coming in, that’s the reason. Just not a lot to be gained from a legacy standpoint. As for what the outcome will do for the future, we can only speculate, and I’ll do that at the end (and more in depth later this week).

The First Half Tells

Again, I did not find this Super Bowl to be difficult to predict or size up this week. I said the quarterbacks were not going to impress (they didn’t), a non-quarterback would win MVP (he did), there’d be a return touchdown (there was), and the defense that caused more damage with splash plays would win the game (they did).

I just didn’t think Seattle would be so dominant in the splash play area, winning turnovers 3-0 and sacks 6-1. If you watched the first few drives, you could see each quarterback playing up to (or down to) expectations too. Darnold had some very risky throws that could have been picks in tight windows. Maye took a couple of early sacks as he tends to do. It was going to be about who manages to avoid the biggest mistakes.

But if you watched those early Darnold throws with the Patriots aggressively jumping routes, you would have been shocked to learn that he ended this game with no picks on 38 attempts. I sensed one coming early. NBC’s Cris Collinsworth did too based on his commentary, and I’m sure millions watching the game did as well. But it never happened.

That really ended up being the key to Seattle winning this Super Bowl. Remember, the Seahawks were minus-4 in turnover differential going into Week 18, and Darnold led all quarterbacks in giveaways. But from Week 18 against the 49ers with the No. 1 seed on the line through the three playoff games, the Seahawks were +8 with 8 takeaways, no giveaways, and that’s how they won every game.

But I think it was a good gameplan early by Mike Macdonald to blitz the corner (Witherspoon) as a new wrinkle (something Witherspoon did twice as much more in 2023-24) to throw off Maye, who looked physically fine (the shoulder) but mentally overwhelmed. I also didn’t think much of Josh McDaniels’ gameplan as he kept up to his reputation with no first-quarter touchdowns in a 10th-straight Super Bowl. But where were the screens, the trick plays, the designed QB runs? Pretty lacking all night to battle what both sides seemed to realize was a blocking mismatch.

When Will Campbell said at the draft that he’d die to protect Drake Maye, I didn’t think he meant he’d take the whole team out in a suicide bombing. But the charting numbers out there are suggesting he allowed 14 pressures himself in the Super Bowl, which sounds astronomically high and hard to believe.

But it was pretty telling early on how little respect both defenses had for the opposing quarterback with the way they were blitzing from all angles and jumping routes. Very aggressive styles that you just wouldn’t see if Patrick Mahomes or (God forbid) Josh Allen were playing in this game. The Patriots running the ball on a 3rd-and-5 early in the second quarter especially felt defeatist. Like they knew their only hope was Darnold to make some Jarrett Stidham-like mistakes and give them a short field.

However, Kenneth Walker’s runs of 30 and 29 yards on the same drive led to the second field goal and a 6-0 lead. The Seahawks running on 3rd-and-12 in the red zone also felt like an admission from Seattle that being conservative as hell was the plan tonight.

Darnold missed a couple of touchdown opportunities to JSN, who was held to 27 yards on 4-of-10 passing and also left the game temporarily for a concussion check. Christian Gonzalez and company did their job on the OPOY, though some Darnold inaccuracies helped the numbers stay down.

Still, Seattle kicked a third field goal and led 9-0 at halftime, just the fifth Super Bowl without a first-half touchdown.

The Third Quarter (Struggle Is Real)

At halftime, the Seahawks were up 183-51 in yards. Maye had just 29 yards on 15 dropbacks, so all that “it’s the weather” bullshit his fans tried selling people on his postseason was in fact bullshit. This looked an awful lot like the impotence he showed in Denver before a speck of snow hit the ground.

Yet, the game still felt close enough and Darnold was shaky enough (late on throws and just 9/22 for 88 yards) to think the Patriots could get back in this game. But I was very surprised at how bad they were in the third quarter. Maye had a 2-for-10 success rate in the quarter. His throws were largely off, and after the Seahawks started the half with another field goal drive to make it 12-0 (arguably Darnold’s best drive all night with two 16-yard passes and an 11-yard scramble), I was shocked at the next sequence from Vrabel and McDaniels.

After getting to the New England 41 after a Henderson run, the Patriots soon faced 3rd-and-1 after he was stuffed for no gain. Do you go sneak? Do you run Stevenson or Henderson again? You do something easy to move the chains, right? Instead, they looked like they wanted to set up a deep shot all along and Maye ended up throwing an incomplete pass to Pop Douglas.

Just to get some spark going for your offense in a 12-0 game, I felt like Vrabel needed to go for this. What happened to the coach who said he’d cut off his dick to win a Super Bowl? Looked like he had his balls snipped instead. The Patriots just punted it back, and they were fortunate that Milton Williams came through with their only sack of the night to instantly derail the drive for another three-and-out.

But then Maye took his fourth sack of the night, then couldn’t convert a 3rd-and-4, leading to another three-and-out. I think these three straight three-and-out drives followed by the game’s first turnover on a strip-sack are really where New England lost this game. They just couldn’t get anything going out of the locker room after a long halftime while Seattle still wasn’t doing anything special offensively, and the nerves should have been less of an issue a half into the game. But they didn’t do anything.

And sure enough, it was a strip-sack that led to Maye’s first turnover of the night, putting the Seahawks 37 yards away from the end zone, the only way they were able to get this offense a touchdown all night. That’s what Seattle has largely been doing since November. That also marks four straight playoff games where Maye took at least 5 sacks, a record.

The Fourth Quarter

Darnold made one of the best plays of the night by converting a 3rd-and-9 to Cooper Kupp, then A.J. Barner was wide open for a 16-yard touchdown. We finally got a touchdown in this game with 13:24 left. At that point, with eight punts and a fumble, you had to question if the Patriots would be the first team in Super Bowl history to get shut out.

But in under a minute, the Patriots got into the end zone with Maye finding Mack Hollins open deep for quick gains of 24 and 35 yards. Where was that all night? Another big mistake by Vrabel going for the extra point. You have to try to make it 19-8, giving yourself a chance at 8+3 instead of keeping it a 12-point game and needing two touchdowns for sure on such a tough night of scoring the ball. Again, he coached very conservatively.

After a quick punt from Seattle, there was still almost 11 minutes left in this game. Crazier things have happened. But this drive is where I felt Maye really blew it. You have time to go on a long touchdown drive, make it 19-14, then all the pressure falls back on Seattle to do something cause even a field goal would keep it a one-possession game at 22-14. But instead of doing so, Maye got into panic mode. He threw a deep ball into triple coverage from his own 17 on first down and that should have been picked but two Seahawks fought for the ball and no one got it.

Then after a 16-yard scramble on a third down, it felt like Maye was getting into a rhythm near midfield. This was far from over. Then two snaps later, he threw a horrific deep ball that was picked off and returned 35 yards to the New England 38 with 8:37 left. Forget about it. The pick was so bad even Collinsworth was left speechless.

The Seahawks played it safe and added a field goal for a 22-7 lead with 5:35 left. Again, it’s not actually over yet. That’s the real kicker too as it’s not like New England needed a superhuman effort from Maye in this game. They just needed him to do some of the things Darnold did like complete some passes in the 8-16 yard range, use your legs that are better than his, and protect the ball. But he didn’t do that.

After converting on 3rd-and-8 to little-used Hunter Henry, pressure got to Maye again and it ended up in a pick-six that was originally ruled a fumble, which would have set a record with his eighth fumble of the postseason. Instead, it goes down as his second pick in the Super Bowl, and he tied the single-season record for the playoffs with 7 fumbles and set the new record with 21 sacks (Joe Burrow had 19 in 2021).

It was 29-7 with 4:27 left, and now you can say it was over. A little touchdown drive in garbage time made it 29-13, then the Seahawks almost answered that too with a 49-yard run by Walker that was called back for holding in a game where officiating wasn’t even a topic for a change. You know it was a beatdown when people aren’t complaining about the zebras in a Super Bowl. Seattle punted and Maye padded some passing yardage to get to 295 to end the game. One of the most misleading boxscores you’ll see.

And like that, it was over. Another Super Bowl in the books where the No. 1 defense dominated an overmatched offensive line. The underdog Patriots sure didn’t play with much fire or passion or living up to the underdog role. There were a few opportunities to make this a game and they missed practically all of them. A pretty forgettable Super Bowl overall.

The truth is this is another season where the Patriots robbed us of a better Super Bowl matchup. Not nearly as bad as not seeing a rematch of Dan Marino’s Dolphins with the 1985 Bears, but I think a healthy Bo Nix and Sean Payton make a game of this in the fourth quarter, to say nothing of the Bills or Jaguars. There wasn’t a single fourth-quarter lead change in the playoff games the Patriots and Seahawks played this year. The other games had 14, a single-season record.

I said 2025 Sam Darnold was like 1991 Mark Rypien on the Redskins, right down to beating up on a schedule merchant in the Super Bowl. Turns out the little time the Seahawks spent trailing this postseason was also on par with that team.

Kenneth Walker ended up winning Super Bowl MVP, the first time a running back wins it since Terrell Davis for the 1997 Broncos. Long time ago. Not exactly a traditional MVP performance since he had 59 of those yards on two plays on one field goal drive, and he didn’t score a touchdown. But I guess it was another one of those games where so many defenders played well that they couldn’t isolate one with stats to give the MVP to, so they just picked an offensive player. Like what happened last year with the Eagles.

But make no mistakes about it. Seattle’s defense led the charge on this win two weeks after the offense picked up the slack against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, the real Super Bowl this year.

Patriots Learned Some Hard Truths

Okay, it’s time for me to get into smarmy Bill Maher mode and get on the 2025 Patriots for this poor showing to end a weak season.

The Patriots won’t and don’t have to apologize for making the Super Bowl ahead of schedule. But it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if we never see them make it back with Maye and Vrabel. Anyone who thinks otherwise hasn’t studied NFL history as Dan Marino and Don Shula went to the Super Bowl in Year 2 (1984) together and guess what? Neither ever made it back.

Other more recent quarterbacks like Donovan McNabb, Matt Hasselbeck, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Jared Goff all lost their first Super Bowl and have yet to make it back. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers won their only Super Bowls in 2009-10 and never got back despite several more great seasons at a level of quarterback play that’s a tier above anything we watched in the 2025 season.

No one knows if they’ll ever be back to the Super Bowl, so you do treat every opportunity as gold.

And I didn’t get a good sense from the Patriots that they took this opportunity seriously enough. More of a “glad to be here” vibe with this team, and maybe that makes sense when you look at the half-assed effort they had on offense in the postseason once they started to play good defenses. Teams like the Jets and Dolphins don’t make the playoffs, you know.

Rarely will you see so many arguments validated by one postseason, but the knock on the 2025 Patriots for being a schedule merchant couldn’t have been more right on. They even kept getting breaks in the playoffs every week with major injuries to their opposing offenses, which is why the defense looked so dominant after rarely displaying such skill in the regular season.

Yes, they tackled well and limited explosive plays, but their schedule was also pure ass. Seattle was finally a healthy offense, and while they didn’t do a ton in this game, they didn’t have to. Sound familiar?

We also can see the weather excuse for New England was bullshit. Unless climate change has produced invisible snow and wind in the state of California, that game was played in near-70-degree weather and clear skies. No issues with a slippery surface or bad turf.

Just bad offense from the Patriots not unlike what we saw all postseason.

As it turns out, who you play is very important in the NFL. Probably the most important thing as matchups dictate outcomes in this league. Yet, I can think of at least 23 MVP voters who seemed to forget that this year when they still let Maye get this close to that award after the season he had against the schedule he faced.

He was 1-2 against winning teams in the regular season, and the Steelers and Bills didn’t necessarily have elite defenses this year either. Once he started playing winning teams backed up by good defenses like the Chargers, Texans, Broncos, and Seahawks in the playoffs, you saw the dramatic drop-off in his stats across the board.

Then one of the common arguments used for his MVP case, used as recently as the other day on TV, was common opponents. I’m supposed to believe that because Stafford had a few more picks on the road against the Falcons and Panthers in high-scoring losses that that makes Maye’s season superior based on a six-game sample.

Okay, you want to see Patriots fans abandon that argument quick? Run the full numbers now that they’ve both played Seattle and Houston too:

  • Matthew Stafford (11 games): 64% completions, 277.7 passing yards per game, 26 TD, 7 INT, 8.15 YPA, 16 sacks, 6 fumbles, 2 lost, 8.03 ANY/A
  • Drake Maye (8 games): 67.5% completions, 258.6 passing yards per game, 18 TD, 6 INT, 8.62 YPA, 27 sacks, 10 fumbles, 5 lost, 7.54 ANY/A

Way more sacks and fumbles for Maye, who drops almost half a full yard in ANY/A from Stafford in these games against the same opponents. Stafford played great in his last two games at Seattle despite the losses being on the defense and special teams. Meanwhile, his third-worst game against Seattle was still better than Maye’s Super Bowl was.

Maye just does not step up against better competition. He’s now 0-5 in the NFL when he throws more than 30 passes against a winning team. He’s 1-8 when he throws more than 35 passes against anyone in the NFL. He has a long way to go to prove he’s an elite quarterback capable of hanging with the best, putting the team on his back, winning shootouts, leading comebacks that aren’t just freebies against Baltimore, and so much more.

Everything was rushed on this kid, and he clearly isn’t at that level yet. Maybe he gets there, and maybe this is as good as it gets in the Maye era. A bad Super Bowl loss. Only time will tell, but I’m not ready to pencil in the Patriots to win the 2026 AFC East.

Another One Bites the Dust

That will wrap up the 2025 NFL season, my 15th season of full-time coverage. Don’t really have more than a pot to piss in for a retirement plan, but maybe this offseason will be beneficial to me in many ways as I hope to get some new databases and metrics created to better help my in-season content.

Also plan to get my health back on an improving track after slacking off these last few months. The end of the season is a stress reliever, and it’s even greater when the Super Bowl ends in a satisfying way as this one did.

I’ll be writing Monday night (for Tuesday) about lessons learned from the 2025 NFL season, but if you want a quick teaser on that, I’m asking the question straight up: How many of these “new contenders” in 2025 will have already peaked this season?

  • Seahawks (good chance this is the peak of the mountain)
  • Patriots
  • Bears
  • Jaguars
  • Broncos
  • Texans
  • Panthers (technically won the division)

I think it’s possible a lot of them never match or improve on their success this year, but we’ll just have to wait and see. It’s going to be an interesting offseason to ask a lot of questions about the 10 new head coaches, and if the number I read is correct, 21 new offensive coordinators around the NFL. Lots of chances for quick turnarounds in 2026 and questioning if the teams who dominated turnovers (Bears) or close games (Bears again, Broncos), or if the schedule merchants (Patriots, Broncos again) can get it done again.

I plan on watching more movies and TV shows, maybe subscribing to the Criterion Channel to tackle the top 5,000 films list on TSPDT better, and working on more NFL stats and hopefully reading less Twitter. But we’ll see as I may want to dabble in video content if it proves to be rewarding/worth the time.

But I need to tackle my offseason approach differently this year as I just can’t keep wasting time arguing on Twitter with bots/scumbags/dumb people. Time is too precious, and we’re running out of it daily.

So, I want a different kind of offseason because I can’t just stomach daily doses of hearing how some overrated schedule merchant lucked his way to a Super Bowl he shit the bed in, and how Mahomes is “washed” and “never going to be good again”. Screw those people. I put in the work and am confident in my predictions. You can’t change their minds.

I just have to keep putting out good content, backed by facts, and let that speak for itself. And Seattle fans, you’re welcome for that reverse jinx. Still feel like you might owe me for Super Bowls 47-48, but given what happened in XL, I guess we can call it even enough.

Until our rooting interests converge again…

NFL 2025 Super Bowl 60 Predictions

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

I’ve already spent too much time writing and thinking about Super Bowl 60 to try to hype it up much more here. So, this is going to be brief, but I’m just thinking at 4 AM, about 38 hours from kickoff, at how huge of a difference in legacy talk there is for this game compared to Super Bowl 49 between these teams 11 years ago.

That one had so much attached to it.

  • Russell Wilson could be one ring away from Brady (3 vs. 2) in just three seasons in the league and no Tuck Rule in his history.
  • Pete Carroll could repeat and arguably take over the mantle as best football coach in the 21st century with his success at USC and now a repeat.
  • The Legion of Boom would solidify itself as an all-time great defense that repeated.
  • The Patriots were trying to end their decade-long title drought after so many crushing playoff defeats.
  • Brady was still trying to tie Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw with a 4th SB win and was in danger of falling to 3-3 in the Super Bowl with three straight losses.
  • It was the “we’re onto Cincinnati” year for Belichick, it was right after Deflategate started.

That game had a lot riding on it, there was no spread (pick ’em), and it ended up being a classic with an inexcusable late-game strategy by the Seahawks that led to the costliest interception in NFL history.

Then you jump forward 11 years and practically everyone involved in these teams is different except for the New England offensive coordinator, who was not the guy to try to call a pass in a tight space to Ricardo Lockette from the 1-yard line when Marshawn Lynch was ready to run through a motherfucker’s face over and over.

But really, what are the stakes here? Mike Vrabel’s penis? Or did he already get it chopped off to help win this ring? It’s just Year 1 for Vrabel-Maye and it’s also Year 1 for Macdonald-Darnold. One year and they’re in the Super Bowl. How’s that feel, Buffalo and Baltimore fans? Eight years and not one of these for those teams.

Instead, we get to see if The Schedule can get it don against Sam Darnold, the No. 1 reason people will still pick the Patriots because they’re afraid of him imploding on the biggest stage. I’m one of those people. But very cool story if he actually kicks their ass and wins this game.

But enough talking. I already gave my final score the other day, so here’s the links with a 7,300-word preview of the game, as well as my supporting stories and betting picks that can help you pass some time before Sunday’s kickoff. We made it.

FINAL: Patriots 23, Seahawks 20

Super Bowl 60 Preview: Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Conference Championship

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Championship Sunday came and went with two close games, not a single fourth-quarter point scored, and that just might be the only formula for how you get a Super Bowl between Sam Darnold and a young Drake Maye doing his best Trent Dilfer impersonation.

I told you this was not my AFC, and one terribly quarterbacked game that was sunk to even lower depths by a huge snowstorm gave way to one of the best quarterbacked championship games you’ll ever see in the NFC. What happened to the AFC having the best quarterbacks?

But my prediction of a 3-point New England win (Broncos covered) and a 27-24 win for the Seahawks were pretty spot on as the favorites advance to Super Bowl 60 where the Seahawks might be a 4.5-point favorite.

It’s not like last year’s story with the three-peat vs. Philly’s revenge. But maybe it will provide a better game, though I’m not sure how the Patriots will actually respond to a good team that isn’t terribly injured. But we have two weeks to talk about that.  

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Patriots at Broncos: Proof That “Take the Points” Is Sometimes the Right Move

I certainly don’t envy the task Sean Payton had on Sunday.

Trying to beat the NFL franchise with the most devil luck on a day where you didn’t have Bo Nix, you had to start a quarterback who hadn’t thrown a meaningful pass in two years (or ever, in some context), you didn’t have your best back (J.K. Dobbins), and you lost Pat Bryant early on top of Troy Franklin being out at wide receiver. Only your #2 and #3 wideouts in receiving yards this season.

I don’t envy him at all, but I think for the first time ever, I’m going to say a Sean Payton defense was 100% let down by a Sean Payton offense in a playoff loss. In a very winnable game against the Patriots, Payton made some tactical errors that he’ll have to stew over all offseason and maybe longer as this 2025 season may have been the best shot he had at a Super Bowl the rest of his career.

You could tell early on this wasn’t going to be a Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes type of AFC Championship Game. Not with Jarrett Stidham and Drake “The Schedule” Maye.  Both coaches came out running the ball, waiting for the quarterback to make a throw on third down that was nearly a turnover for both.

After Stidham badly missed a screen pass on his second drive, you thought the worst was yet to come. But then he surprised everyone with a perfect deep ball, a 52-yard gain to Marvin Mims, who beat Christian Gonzalez in coverage. Two plays later, it was a touchdown pass to Courtland Sutton, and suddenly Denver was up 7-0.

But it never got better from there. With the Patriots struggling to get any offense going, the Broncos faced a 4th-and-1 at the New England 14 early in the second quarter after a Stidham scramble. I get the argument for being aggressive and going for it, but as I said in the moment, I supported the field goal there.

I think Payton lost the game here.

First, you have to understand this is a game where points will be at a premium with your backup and all the other injuries on offense. The Patriots are playing a lot of sound defense and there was clear pass pressure on Stidham, who didn’t do the best job of handling it with his inexperience. He could stand to learn to throw the ball away better.

Second, if you’re going for it and you’re not going ballsy to throw to the end zone for a touchdown, then you gotta go quarterback sneak (Payton had Russell Wilson dominating these after he was horrible at them in Seattle) to be safe and get it. At best, you’re probably getting a yard or two, so it’s still going to be a first down at the 13 or 12. Can you really say for sure you’re getting a touchdown there? You might be kicking a field goal four snaps later anyway, so that’s another reason I don’t like going for it at the 14.

Third, if the CBS broadcast team knew in the pregame that snow was very possible in this game and the conditions would get worse, then Payton and the Broncos had to know that too. That’s just another reason to take the 3 points now, go up 10-0, and put pressure on a quarterback in his first road playoff start who has been playing like shit.

But the Broncos went for it, Stidham tried to throw a long-developing pass play to the back, and he was nearly picked off. Turnover on downs. That was the turning point, and even though the Patriots punted on the ensuing drive, the Broncos never got the ball past the New England 28 the rest of the game.

New England’s offense was still unable to get going. Maye’s success rate was 1-for-9 to start this game, and not even a 3rd-and-13 conversion to Mack Hollins could get a scoring drive going. They needed a takeaway, which Stidham provided in the worst way on the ensuring drive. Instead of throwing the ball away or taking the sack since it was third down, he tried to get rid of the ball and was charged with a fumble after some ref discussion. He’s lucky they blew the whistle and it wasn’t a fumble-six.

I’m not sure it was a true backwards pass either, but since what Stidham did on the play was so bad and stupid, he deserved to get hit with a turnover. The Patriots got to start with the ball 12 yards away from the end zone, and two plays later, my prediction of a Maye rushing touchdown came true to get the Patriots on the board.

It’s those two killer plays that ruined the game for Denver. The 4th down decision and the fumble. Both teams missed a long field goal to end the first half, but the weather was about to get much worse in the second half.

New England could have started the second half with a three-and-out, but Rhamondre Stevenson was able to catch them off guard with a 3-yard run on 3rd-and-3. That led to a marathon drive where Maye had a key 28-yard scramble on 3rd-and-9 that’s probably the main reason his QBR for this game ended up being a 62.6.

The 9:31 drive ended in a field goal, but that’s a 10-7 lead and it was the last score of the day. It was around this time when the snow started coming down, and that made it very hard on both teams to get any offense going. The Patriots got their long drive in just in time before the snow.

However, no one knew that’d be the last scoring drive in the game, and it almost wasn’t a scoring drive at all. The Patriots used the Tush Push on 4th-and-1 at the Denver 8, and despite beefing up with two defenders in the backfield, they really didn’t get any push on Maye. He’s fortunate that spotting the ball is an unscientific joke in the NFL, because this probably should have been a turnover on downs.

After their field goal drive, the Patriots tried to use the better field direction (snow not in their face) for a 31-yard gain on a flea-flicker pass, but even with the better field, they still missed a 46-yard field goal badly. The Patriots had just two completions that gained more than 9 yards in the game.

In the fourth quarter, Denver had the better field direction for offense. But the offensive line was not able to control the ground game, so it was on Stidham to try to beat this defense in the snow. He just couldn’t do it on this day.

The final turning point was a bad New England punt that put the Broncos at the New England 33 with 6:55 left. What offense in a 3-point deficit wouldn’t kill to start that close? But the weather was a factor again, and the Broncos did not capitalize with great calls. Harvey lost 3 yards on a first-down run, then he didn’t get anything on a catch, then Stidham scrambled for 8 yards to set up 4th-and-5.

Not to trigger Atlanta fans over Super Bowl 51, but this drive’s failure reminded me a little of how the Falcons had a 1st-and-10 at the New England 22 after the great Julio Jones catch. Literally take three knees and make a field goal and you probably win that game. Instead, they lost yards and had to punt in a 28-20 game before the Patriots tied.

At least the Broncos didn’t punt here, but only gaining 5 yards on 3 plays in that golden opportunity for field position was a huge, missed opportunity. I also question if they should have just gone for it here as getting a touchdown was probably their best shot of winning the game. You don’t really care if you get stopped since you don’t expect the Patriots to get any offense going in the wind.

I guess they had to give the field goal a try, but Wil Lutz was blocked from 45 yards out with 4:42 left. Given the magnitude of the game and the moment, I think I could make the argument that’s in the top 5 for the biggest failed field goal in NFL history.

The first one is obviously Scott Norwood’s 47-yard miss for Buffalo with Super Bowl 25 on the line against the Giants. The only do-or-die field goal miss in Super Bowl history. But we also know the only other short do-or-die field goal miss in a championship game was Billy Cundiff (Ravens) from 32 yards out in the 2011 AFC Championship Game at New England.

Then I might rank Gary Anderson’s first miss of the 1998 season at No. 3 as it cost his Vikings a 10-point lead late in the NFC Championship Game that should have been enough to beat Atlanta. We were robbed of an all-time great Super Bowl between the Vikings and Broncos because of that one.

For fourth place, you can take your pick of failures in the divisional round:

  • 2000 Titans vs. Ravens: Al Del Greco’s 37-yard FG is blocked and returned for a touchdown in a 10-10 tie with just over 12:00 left (Ravens won 24-10 after getting a pick-six too).
  • 2005 Colts vs. Steelers: “He missed it” as Mike Vanderjagt shanked a 46-yard field goal to deny an all-time great game of overtime.
  • 1995 Chiefs vs. Colts: Lin Elliott missed a 42-yard field goal to force overtime as the No. 1 seed Chiefs fell. He missed from 39 yards in the same quarter.
  • 2006 Chargers vs. Patriots: Nate Kaeding missed a 54-yard field goal that would have forced overtime back when overtime was true sudden death.

At worst you have to put this one in the top 10 since it was a championship game.

The Broncos got the ball back with 3:05 left and 68 yards away from the end zone. But much like in Stidham’s only other game-winning drive attempt in the NFL (2022 overtime vs. 49ers), he threw an interception rather quickly. Just a poor read/throw, and Gonzalez has his playoff highlight now.

The Patriots just needed one first down to ice it, and Maye put that away with his legs on a broken play. He ended up rushing for 65 yards while only netting 65 passing yards on 26 pass plays. He joins Blake Bortles (vs. 2017 Bills) as the only quarterbacks to throw for fewer than 100 yards (min. 20 attempts) and win a playoff game without scoring 14 points.

There are many “records” of futility associated with the Patriots’ Super Bowl run here, and I have two weeks to get into them all, so it’s not like I have to do it right now. But I think scoring the fewest points (54) by any conference champion since the 1979 Rams (49) is a good place to start.

Becoming the third team in NFL history (regular season or postseason) to win three straight games in a single season after allowing at least 5 sacks in each game is another crazy one. Only the 1986 Patriots and 2004 Bears did that, and they weren’t doing it in playoff games. Maye’s 15 sacks are already the second most in a single postseason (Joe Burrow took 19 in four games in 2021).

The Dilfer/2001 Brady comparisons are spot on for Maye. I’d say he has to play better against Seattle to win one more time, but are we sure about that right now? This team is on such a lucky run that they don’t even have to play a single top 10 offense in yards or points per drive despite playing four playoff games.

The Patriots have allowed 19 net points in three playoff games, and they get Darnold next. Defenses that go on runs like this in the playoffs usually do quite well in the Super Bowl, but I’m not sure there’s anything sustainable you can take away from this New England run.

Rams at Seahawks: The Ring That Got Away

If special teams didn’t exist, the 2025 Rams could have been a special team.

In the end, I was right that the Rams were not a good pick to win the Super Bowl this year despite spending several weeks as the odds-on favorite. But their blown leads, including that 16-point lead in Seattle in Week 16, showed a team that lacked attention to detail and closing games out in a championship fashion.

In some ways, Sunday night was their worst performance of the season. It’s the only game this year where the Rams didn’t find a way to get at least a fourth-quarter tie and they trailed by 11 multiple times.

Their pass defense was shredded by Sam Darnold (346/3/0) and JSN (10/153/1). Then there were the third-down woes I kept warning about, and didn’t expect the Seattle offense to go 7/12. But the Rams were just 1/8 on third down, and that was enough stops to keep them behind the eight ball all night in a 31-27 loss.

But the real turning point ended up being arguably the biggest weakness this team had all year: Special teams.

  • They gave up two blocked field goals in the fourth quarter against the Eagles to blow that game they led by 19 points and should have won.
  • They missed a go-ahead extra point in the San Francisco loss.
  • They gave up a punt return touchdown in Week 16 in Seattle to get that comeback going for the No. 1 seed, and they missed a go-ahead field goal in that game too.

The Rams fired their ST coordinator during the season but to no avail. It cost them again on Sunday. Xavier Smith muffed a punt in the second quarter but got it back. In the third quarter, with the Rams trailing 17-13 and about to get the ball back, he made one of the worst plays ever, falling down while the punt was coming and losing that one for the game’s only turnover.

Just a horrible play that the Seahawks immediately used to score a 17-yard touchdown and go up 11 points, making the Rams chase the rest of the night.

That’s not to say the Rams had a perfect game otherwise, but that was definitely the turning point. There was another before the second quarter ended when the Rams got the ball back with a 13-10 lead and 1:33 with two timeouts. A good drive there and you’re going into halftime up 16-10 or 20-10. Instead, the Rams had a quick three-and-out with two incompletions, and the Seahawks got the ball back with 54 seconds left. They were able to drive 74 yards for a touchdown in 30 seconds. Rams trailed 17-13 at halftime. Inexcusable.

Otherwise, there weren’t that many mistakes from the Rams on the road. After the botched punt return and 24-13 deficit, Stafford did a great job with some quick strikes to get a touchdown on the board and make it a game again. But I thought McVay nearly gave it away with a bad run call on a 2nd-and-15, then it looked like the Rams had to punt until a stupid taunting penalty on Riq Woolen wiped out a 4th-and-12 situation.

Keep in mind that’s after Woolen dropped a pick. Then he immediately gave up a 34-yard touchdown to Puka Nacua, so that was an unbelievable 3-moment sequence of shame for Woolen, and it made the game 31-27 with just over 17 minutes left.

But like the first game, there were no more points added. I do see the criticism and application of why McVay wouldn’t go for two there to try to make it 31-28. That way, if you’re down late in a 3-point game, you can settle for the game-tying field goal. But down 31-27, they ended up turning it over on downs on a spot you’d rather be kicking a field goal. So, that did kind of come back to haunt them. If they didn’t get the 2PC, then it’d still be 31-26 and the situation would be the same, needing a touchdown. So, I do think McVay goofed there a bit.

After the Rams finally got a stop thanks to a big sack, Stafford had his shot at what needed to be a third-straight game-winning drive on the road this postseason. He had a pretty great game, but the Rams turning in a marathon drive where they had to overcome a 4th-and-1 with a Stafford scramble after a terrible Colby Parkinson drop ended up really hurting the Rams in the end.

Their drive consumed almost half the quarter and ended in no points. On 4th-and-4 from the Seattle 6, Stafford tried forcing a pass to a backup tight end and it just wasn’t there. According to McVay and Stafford, the Seahawks were fortunate to “blow” a coverage and double team running back Kyren Williams, who apparently was supposed to be the target for a go-ahead touchdown. He was doubled, so Stafford had to panic and go elsewhere for a big incompletion with 4:54 left.

Could they have kicked the field goal there and made it a 1-point game? Yeah, I think there’s an argument there. But when you’re in a 31-27 game and the quarterbacks were playing at a high level with both over 340 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no picks, I think you have to put the ball in the hands of your MVP in that spot and trust your best unit. It just didn’t work out.

Then the Seahawks did a really great job in the four-minute offense, an area of the game where I always criticize McVay for his shortcomings. The Seahawks stayed smart and aggressive, mixing in several second-down pass attempts. They ended up getting four first downs to help run out all but 25 seconds of the clock and the Rams’ three timeouts.

The “controversial” play was a 3rd-and-7 to Cooper Kupp, who also scored a touchdown against his former team. He was ruled to get just enough for the 7-yard gain with 3:11 left, or the Seahawks would have had an interesting decision. First, I think it was a catch and down by contact all the way. But are we sure Kupp got to the 35 and the first down? Should McVay have challenged that one to burn a timeout instead of just using a timeout? I think there’ s an argument to challenge the spot here.

Alas, it ended up counting as a first down, then JSN had a big 14-yard catch for another first down, then a defensive holding penalty really put the Rams in a bind. By the time Stafford got the ball back, only 25 seconds remained and he had to go 93 yards. He got 44 to Puka, but he was unable to get out of bounds (close) on the last catch to at least set up a Hail Mary finish from the Seattle 49.

The Seahawks hung on, and Stafford becomes the first quarterback ever to throw for 350 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no turnovers in a playoff loss. It’s hard to play better than he did in the two games at Seattle, the No. 1 scoring defense, and he still took the loss in both games.

That tells me maybe he will win that MVP, because it’d be yet another year where the MVP didn’t win the Super Bowl. Only Patrick Mahomes (2022 Chiefs) has done that in the 21st century as teams built this way to win with the passing game are a dying breed, and it’s just hard to pull that off in the playoffs when you need competent plays from your special teams and defense.

The Rams didn’t get enough of those this year, and that’s why they were on the road here, and that likely made a difference as I can’t see Darnold playing this comfortably on the road even if the SoFi crowd is a little soft. They weren’t soft enough for him not to throw four picks in the first meeting, but that’s an afterthought now.

Darnold is in the Super Bowl, he’s the favorite, he’s got a good defense that has shown some major cracks against the Rams, but it’s just one game against the Patriots to win it all now.

What do you think is going to happen in two weeks? It feels inevitable, doesn’t it? The ghosts of failures past coming home to roost. Cinderella turning into a pumpkin at midnight. Mike Macdonald losing another defensive gem after losing a 17-10 game at home in the 2023 AFC Championship Game with Baltimore against the Chiefs.

Can he overcome his quarterback’s nerves? Can someone hire Klint Kubiak to be their head coach after this showing? Guess we’ll find out all of these things in the next two weeks. I’d say I can’t wait, but I got a Tubi watchlist and ~10 inches of snow that’s going to take a week or longer to melt that also have my attention.

The Mark Rypien vs. Trent Dilfer Super Bowl can wait a little.

Next week: Certainly not watching the Pro Bowl. I’ll have Super Bowl-related articles for the next two weeks, including a topic I had in mind since September that relates Sam Darnold, MetLife Stadium, and the Patriots together in a satirical but still factual way.  

NFL 2025 Wild Card Predictions: Path to Super Bowl 60 Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The 2025 NFL season has been so hard to predict that I wish I could find a way to write off all 14 playoff teams. The good news is 13 of them will lose in the next month, and this is the moment where I make that prediction for the last team standing.

There are so many teams that I feel like you can immediately write off for one huge reason that will inevitably doom them in trying to win 3-4 playoff games in a row:

  • Panthers – They’re just not good enough.
  • Patriots – Schedule merchants who aren’t ready to go the distance
  • Steelers – Tomlin’s playoff defense will eventually implode
  • Texans – Defense is great but that offense is going to tank them eventually
  • Chargers – Offensive line won’t hold up for 4 road wins
  • Broncos – Stagnant offense that waits until the 4th quarter to score will doom them
  • Bears – Way too reliant on D/ST fueling late-game comebacks
  • Packers – Not enough horses to go on No. 7 seed run without Parsons and Kraft

That leaves six teams who I feel can win it all even though they have a glaring issue that concerns me. But it’s something I feel the rest of the team can cover up for a game or two that they can maybe squeak by.

  • Bills – Run defense has been playing better and not sure who in the AFC can really run wild on them.
  • Jaguars – A shame one has to lose Sunday but this could either be Trevor Lawrence’s chance to be Eli/Flacco/Foles or he implodes with too much responsibility
  • Seahawks – I don’t trust Sam Darnold but he probably has the best situation going for him and he almost beat the Rams after throwing 4 INTs because of that team support.
  • 49ers – Still think a core that’s been to two Super Bowls can get back home for SB 60 but the injuries (Bosa, Warner, Pearsall, etc.) make it so tough on the road.
  • Eagles – Yes, their offense should probably have them in the first category, but this is why track record matters and I’m still willing to give the 2-time NFC champs with the reigning SB MVP a shot (defense is better than a year ago too).
  • Rams – Probably played as well as any team has all year but they’ve blown five games and struggle to close and it’s usually the little things (short yardage runs, FG kicking, 4th down stops on D, etc.).

So how do I see it playing out? Many, many ways if I’m being honest. But if you want one version of my vision today, here it goes:

Rams take care of the Panthers, Packers eliminate the Bears, and the Eagles take out the 49ers this weekend in the NFC.

Bills outlast the Jags, the Chargers go chargering in New England, and the Steelers finally win one for Tomlin to take out the best defense.

Seattle survives a scare from Green Bay in the 7-1 matchup, and the Eagles find a way again to deny McVay and Stafford.

Buffalo eliminates Denver for the second year in a row, and the Steelers lose a game they should have won in New England.

Vic Fangio puts Sam Darnold in a blender and he implodes against that secondary like everyone expected him to do.

The Bills do it to the Patriots again at Foxboro as Josh Allen has his first playoff game-winning drive while Maye can’t close again.

Super Bowl 60 is a rematch from Week 17: Bills vs. Eagles but in good weather. However, the Bills’ lack of wideouts hurts them against that defense again, and the Eagles find a way to repeat despite hearing all year how their offense is garbage. But don’t sleep on that defense, and I still think Jalen Hurts has the ability to rise to the occasion with the talent around him to make some necessary plays that he didn’t really have to do last postseason. This time, he gets it done and the Eagles do in fact pull off the repeat.

I don’t love it. In fact, I’d rather see something like Texans vs. 49ers since I bet on it over a month ago, or maybe the Packers do the unthinkable and go to the Super Bowl as the first No. 7 seed after I picked them the last two years to do so.

But this is where I am. I’m also very open to the Rams getting it done by actually closing games out, which would mean getting rid of the Eagles in the divisional round and getting some revenge on Darnold for that blown 16-point lead in what was the game of the year for the regular season. Jacksonville winning this weekend would also throw a huge wrench in my vision, but if that happens, then I really do believe Lawrence can do the Eli/Flacco/Foles thing here.

We’re overdue for one of those anyway, aren’t we?

NFL Wild Card Picks

Already let the cat out of the bag with this weekend’s picks, but for spread purposes, here are my wild card picks:

  • Rams 26, Panthers 20 – That spread (Rams -10.5) is too high but the Rams move on
  • Packers 24, Bears 17- Snow game? Run the ball, GB.
  • Bills 24, Jaguars 20 – Maybe lower scoring than expected, but I think the Bills will have more balanced offense and Lawrence will have a big pick.
  • Eagles 20, 49ers 17 – Lowest scoring game of the week.
  • Patriots 23, Chargers 20 – Dicker the Kicker choke incoming? Does Maye have a Tuck Rule moment in him for his first playoff game?
  • Steelers 26, Texans 23 – More points than expected as Aaron Rodgers finds a way to get it done against the top defense.

This Week’s Articles

Guess I really wrote this ass-backwards this week, but here are links to my final QB rankings of 2025 (won’t be doing anymore until July), Fraud Alert Ratings for 2025 playoff teams, and about 12,000 words in full previews on every Wild Card game.

2025 Final NFL Quarterback Rankings: Matthew Stafford Is the MVP
2025 NFL Fraud Alert Rating: Should We Trust the Bears and Patriots in the Playoffs?
2025 NFC Wild Card Preview: Are We Sleeping on the Philadelphia Eagles Repeating?
2025 AFC Wild Card Preview: Without the Chiefs and Ravens, Things Feel Wide Open This Year
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: 2025 Wild Card Weekend

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 18

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

After a Week 18 finale that saw nine comeback opportunities, the 2025 regular season is in the books. I can’t recall a crazier season than this one with none of the Chiefs, Ravens, or Bills winning their division, and the first two didn’t even have a winning record.

Seven new division winners is a record, and somehow the only team that repeated (Eagles) is from the division that never repeats (first time since 2004).

We might see a Trevor Lawrence vs. Sam Darnold Super Bowl at this point. That’s why I was worried my preseason predictions would be the worst they ever were, but they weren’t. In fact, by being off by an average of 2.72 wins, I’ve had five seasons since 2013 that were less accurate.

One difference this year is I only got one team exactly right, and it was the Steelers finishing 10-7. Barely. But I only had five teams where I was off by 5+ games, so that’s not too bad.

Onto the playoffs.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Seahawks at 49ers: The No. 1 Seed

It didn’t necessarily look like a battle for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, because the Seahawks and 49ers repeatedly made mistakes to keep the score so low in this 13-3 final. In fact, the game set history for the fewest points ever in the NFL despite both quarterbacks completing over 70% of their passes and both running games averaging over 4.0 yards per carry:

But the Seahawks prevailed because their defense was the best unit in the game. It helps when the 49ers didn’t have Trent Williams or Ricky Pearsall, but the 49ers scored their fewest points in a game under Kyle Shanahan since they managed just a field goal in his debut against Carolina way back in 2017.

Brock Purdy was held to 127 yards on 19 completions, and Christian McCaffrey had a rough night with 23 yards on 8 carries. He also tipped a pass deep in the red zone for a killer interception in the fourth quarter when the 49ers trailed 13-3.

Speaking of which, the 49ers are now 0-50 when trailing by 8+ points in the fourth quarter under Shanahan. I’ve seen the stat posted as 0-47, but I think that misses a couple playoff games, and it’s possible Stathead has a data error for a game that doesn’t belong. But I know the 0 wins is 100% accurate as Shanahan’s teams have never been able to make these comebacks, and butterfingers on a pick like that won’t help.

Sam Darnold got through a big game without any turnovers, though he did nearly lose a fumble and got lucky on a sideline throw where a defender only got one foot in bounds. But he was okay outside of taking a brutal sack on 1st-and-goal at the 1 on the opening drive before misfiring on fourth-and-goal. His running backs absolutely dominated with 230 yards from scrimmage between the duo.

The Seahawks missed field goals from 47 and 26 (WTF?), so that kept the score low too even though they dominated the game in first downs (23-9) and yards (361-173).

It means Seattle has a week off and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, something they had in their three previous Super Bowl trips (2005, 2013-14). The 49ers will have to travel and win some road games if they want to get back to Levi’s Stadium for Super Bowl 60.

The 49ers’ stock definitely takes a hit from this game, but I’m still not sold on the Seahawks as a Super Bowl team. But we have time to get into that the next two weeks or more.

Ravens at Steelers: Game of the Weekend

I can tell my Steelers fandom isn’t what it used to be, because I should have been a basket case watching that fourth quarter, which was as dramatic as any game this season with everything on the line.

But I was almost resigned to the fact of a Baltimore win, and I had a good vision for the playoffs with a Baltimore win, including a potential AFC Championship Game between the Bills and Ravens.

But that’s all moot now after Aaron Rodgers delivered one of his most clutch comebacks in his long career given the D.K. Metcalf suspension and the way they leaned on him heavily with a season-high 294 passing yards. That good old Baltimore defense, always ripe for hitting up for big yards and a double-digit comeback. You could see things trending that way even before Kyle Hamilton was injured in the third quarter as the Steelers should  have finished the last drive of the first half with 6 before a goal-line stop.

However, the Steelers had some mental lapses on defense and left receivers wide open for Lamar Jackson, who hit them either for long touchdowns or what should have been a game-winning play to Likely to set up the field goal. But you definitely don’t love taking a 2-yard knee and not giving the ball to Derrick Henry for some more yards to get closer when you had a timeout left. Always get closer in that stadium for a kick of 40+ yards.

I had picked the Ravens to win the Super Bowl this year with the idea that 2025 would finally be the year they protect the ball and not screw things up with the season on the line. But my worry this summer was the rookie kicker, Tyler Loop, screwing things up in taking over for [REDACTED] and missing a do-or-die field goal.

Remember, the Ravens were in this position because Chris Boswell, usually one of the most reliable kickers in the game, missed the extra point. He’s been terrible the last three weeks for some reason, and he almost helped end the team’s season as they hung onto a 26-24 lead instead of 27-24.

But whether it was nerves for a rookie, a cold night, or the holy water thrown on that end of the end zone before the game, but fate smiled on the Steelers and Loop’s 44-yard field goal was wide right, ending Baltimore’s season, maybe John Harbaugh’s coaching tenure, and sending the Steelers to the playoffs with their first AFC North title since 2020.

Talk about streaks colliding next week. The Steelers are on a 6-game losing streak in the playoffs, allowing at least 28 points in every game (NFL record). But they’ve won 23 straight home games on Monday night with no losses since 1991, and it’s a Monday night game with Houston, who I felt last year was the kind of team the Steelers would need to face to end the streak as they shouldn’t have the offense that can light up the Steelers.

Maybe things with Rodgers, who gets Metcalf back, will be different this time. Maybe it’ll be another 21-0 deficit before you can blink (Chargers did fall behind 14-0 to Houston in 5:00 two weeks ago).

But in this twisted AFC, I’m actually feeling a little optimistic about the Steelers again and looking forward to Monday night.

Panthers at Buccaneers: The Funniest NFC South Ending, Part 1

Objectively, this game sure felt like the officiating was in favor of Tampa Bay to make sure it came down to Sunday’s game in Atlanta. There were some atrocious calls on a fumble, a weak OPI call that wiped out a big play in the third quarter, Cade Otton getting DPI for tripping over his own feet, a missed facemask, etc.

Officiating aside, I thought the quarterbacks handled the wet and rainy conditions well outside of a bad pick thrown by each. Bryce Young didn’t take any sacks, and he still threw for 266 yards and 2 touchdowns with literally no help from the running game (12 carries for 20 yards).

In fact, the running back position killed this game for Carolina in the fourth quarter when Rico Dowdle fell to the ground and tried to pitch the ball back to Young on a flea-flicker, and the Bucs recovered that fumble in a 16-7 game. Killer stuff, and no, you should never be trying a flea-flicker at the opponent 20 as that takes away the real long deep ball you’d like to set up from that. That’s why I question if that was actually the call or if Dowdle just tried to ad-lib after falling.

That was a crushing blow even with the Bucs getting their 36-yard field goal blocked on the other end. By the time the Panthers scored their touchdown and used their timeouts to get the ball back in a 16-14 game, just 18 seconds remained at their own 3-yard line. Tough for even the Carolina Reaper to do anything in that spot.

Alas, they had a backup route to the playoffs…

Saints at Falcons: The Funniest NFC South Ending, Part 2

We got the perfect ending to the 2025 NFC South as the Falcons did in fact beat the Saints to help Carolina win the division for the first time since 2015. Everything was coming up Carolina’s way in this game, including a late interception by Tyler Shough (otherwise played well) that probably locked up OROY for Tetairoa McMillan too.

Wild that you can get this much going your way by losing your last two games like Carolina did. But even with winning enough games to get to 8-9 and force that three-way tie, the Falcons still fired coach Raheem Morris. Can’t say I disagree with that one. This team should have won the division this year and blew it.

Now, the Saints might end up being the winner next year if they can add a few pieces around Shough.

Chargers at Broncos: Trey Lance Tried (Sorta)

The Chargers started Trey Lance instead of Justin Herbert, and it went about as poorly as you expected. He threw a pick-six, but the defense kept the Chargers hanging around all day before the Broncos pulled away late to win the No. 1 seed.

I get the idea of Sean Payton “saving things” for the playoffs on offense since he could see this team again in two weeks if the Chargers upset the No. 2 Patriots on the road. But it was still not an encouraging game on offense from Bo Nix and company.

Dolphins at Patriots: No Repeat of 2019

I guess you need a Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback to go into Foxboro for a finale upset if you’re Miami. That’s a callback to 2019 when the Patriots blew a first-round bye. You don’t get a bye for the No. 2 seed anymore, but the Patriots wrapped it up by making short order of the Dolphins. The running back duo scored five touchdowns in a variety of ways.

I haven’t seen any news on Mike McDaniel getting fired, so maybe he ends up coming back without Tua Tagovailoa in 2026.

Jets at Bills: Mitch Trubisky Caps Off Historic Season for QBs Facing Jets

You see why the schedule matters? The Jets played such a pathetic month of football that they gave up 6 touchdowns to Trevor Lawrence, 5 touchdowns to Drake Maye, and Mitch Trubisky hit them with 4 to end their season allowing 36 touchdown passes with 0 interceptions, new NFL records for futility. Only the Jets.

James Cook is lucky Derrick Henry slowed down in the second half or he would have lost that rushing title to him. But the Bills got to pad some defensive stats in the win and now have to face the Jaguars on the road in maybe the most interesting game of wild card weekend.

Colts at Texans: Maybe Riley Leonard Should Have Started?

I’m not saying the Colts make the playoffs if they start Riley Leonard instead of bringing Philip Rivers out of retirement. But maybe they should trust their coach and start Leonard when he was healthy? I was shocked at how he was taking it to Houston on the road in his first NFL start, and they were playing starters on defense when he did his most damage in the first half.

Unfortunately, even with the Texans calling off some dogs in the second half, Davis Mills led a game-winning drive and the Texans still won 32-30 to get to 12-5. But Steichen can coach offense, and it’s just unfortunate what happened to the Colts this year and how poorly the Sauce Gardner trade will age, especially if they try to get the draft resources together to steal Arch Manning in 2027.

Titans at Jaguars: Short Work

Watching Trevor Lawrence scramble in the third quarter with a 31-7 lead had me holding my breath. Get him on the sideline; this one was over. But great winning streak by the Jaguars to end the season, and Lawrence is playing the best ball of his career. Cam Ward unfortunately got injured on a touchdown scramble run, the first time he missed snaps this year. Get him a coach and he could be much better in 2026.

Chiefs at Raiders: Damn, Can Spags Hold Any Lead?

The Chiefs finish 2025 with 0 saves on defense (upheld a one-score lead in the fourth quarter/overtime) and 4 blown leads. They even gave up two more game-winning drives in the games Mahomes didn’t start. Spags really can’t stop anyone in crunch time, including Aidan O’Connell in the final minute.

The 2025 Chiefs without Mahomes are the first offense since the 2009 Raiders (JaMarcus Russell) to go three straight games without 170 yards of offense. If that was Travis Kelce’s final game, yikes. The Raiders got the win and still got the No. 1 pick on top of it.

But that’s also probably the last game in the coaching career of Pete Carroll. He was fired on Monday after one terrible season.

Browns at Bengals: Garrett Gets the Record in Stunning Fashion

It didn’t look like Myles Garrett was going to set the sack record after all. But with just over 5:00 left, he timed the snap perfectly and buried Joe Burrow for No. 23. I thought it was a little odd the way the game just stopped for it, but the Bengals should have used the time to come up with a better play.

While Joe Burrow did lead a rare go-ahead drive in the final minutes, he botched the critical 2-point conversion. That’s so costly in a 18-17 game where you open yourself up to losing by a field goal, which is more likely than ever now with the new kickoff rule and kicker’s range. Sure enough, Shedeur Sanders led his first game-winning drive with the Browns getting the walk-off field goal to make Garrett’s happy day even happier.

That makes up for Week 1 when the Browns choked on a go-ahead field goal late in the game against the Bengals. But what a sign of the times. The Browns win this game and fire Kevin Stefanski after six years. The Bengals lose again and are keeping Zac Taylor for 2026, reportedly.

Never change, Bungles.

Cardinals at Rams: Stafford Should Wrap Up MVP

The Rams played starters to go for the No. 5 seed, and it was one of those weeks where the Cardinals made it a close game, trailing only 23-20 to start the fourth quarter. But Stafford threw two more touchdowns to push his season total to 46, and the Rams finished 12-5, making the 2025 NFC West the first division ever with three 12-win teams.

I already wrote that I’m voting Stafford for MVP this year. Oddly enough, I think the Seattle loss cemented his case for me, doing what he did that night on the road without Adams in what should have been a win that led to the No. 1 seed. Then you watch what Bryce Young and Brock Purdy, two quarterbacks going to the playoffs, did against that Seattle defense in the next two games. Like two different sports.

The Rams should be disappointed with a 12-5 record though. They were in every game late and just didn’t close enough of them, and quarterback play is far down the list of reasons for that.

But maybe they’ll get a revenge tour in the playoffs, starting with the Carolina Panthers on Saturday.

Lions at Bears: Not Loving the Vibes, Ben

Can’t say I liked the way the Bears were down 16-0 at home when they had a chance to lock up the No. 2 seed with a win and drop Detroit under .500 in the process. They did eventually tie the game, but they didn’t close this time, and the Lions got a walk-off field goal to finish 9-8.

The No. 2 seed still worked out for them, but I wasn’t a big fan of the way Johnson handled this finale. Now it’s a rematch with Green Bay.

Commanders at Eagles: Backup Bowl

It’s not like the Eagles knew the Bears would lose to Detroit, but I’m still a bit down on Nick Sirianni for not trying to win this one with starters and get the No. 2 seed. I think I’d much rather play the Packers (injured team) first than the 49ers, and I’d much rather have home-field than go to Chicago should that 3-2 matchup come to fruition in the divisional round.

But the Eagles blew a 17-10 lead in the fourth quarter to Josh Johnson, and that’s why they’re going to play the 49ers now. A matchup we should have seen in the playoffs by now to get a rematch for the 2022 NFC-CG spoiled by Brock Purdy’s elbow injury on the 49ers’ first drive.

Cowboys at Giants: Why’d They Do Dak Like That?

Dak Prescott had won 12 games in a row against the Giants, had a chance to lead the NFL in passing yards, had a chance to finish .500 (8-8-1), and the Cowboys just ran it and benched him at halftime with 70 yards while the Giants rolled to a 34-17 win. I don’t get that at all, except maybe they wanted the Giants to get a weaker draft pick.

Packers at Vikings: [REDACTED]

If Matt LaFleur and the Packers didn’t care about losing their fourth in a row going into the playoffs, why should I care about their 16-3 loss? Ugly game. Had to call timeout and kick a field goal to avoid a shutout. I’ll just say “Nine” doesn’t seem capable of staying healthy, so that’s a problem for Minnesota going forward.

Next week: Playoffs? You kidding me? I’m somehow going to do the final QB rankings of 2025 for Monday, get Fraud Alert Rating for the season by Tuesday, full wild card previews for Wednesday/Thursday, and betting picks by Friday.