Tag: Texans

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 5

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It only took until Week 5, but we’ve reached that point in the NFL season where “no team is great” and everyone has a loss. Everyone has a win too, except for the Jets. As Artie Lange once said, there are times where girls won’t fvck you, but the Jets will always fvck you.

But I knew Sunday would be a crazy day when so many games had a small spread, and some of those games actually were among the biggest blowouts. This was one of the worst weeks I’ve ever had at picking winners as I’m 4-9 heading into MNF with the Chiefs left.

Definitely the kind of day that should make you reevaluate everything from the MVP to John Harbaugh’s job status in Baltimore to who might win the AFC East. The remaining members of the 1972 Dolphins could pop the champagne tonight, and the 1976 Buccaneers, 2008 Lions, and 2017 Browns are warming up the Faygo bottles for the 2025 Jets.

We’ve had eight games with a comeback opportunity this week, but it’s very interesting to note that Sunday had five double-digit comeback wins after zero in Week 4 and five in Weeks 1-3 combined.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Patriots at Bills: AFC East Game of the Year Decade?

The good news is we still have an AFC East race in 2025 between the Patriots and Bills. The bad news is the Bills may have just given the Patriots and their fanbase the relevance they’ve been seeking again for the past few years.

In the first half, both teams looked like they have been taking advantage of weak schedules and weren’t ready for primetime. Lots of penalties by Buffalo, and the Bills even coughed up two fumbles, including the first one by a non-quarterback (Keon Coleman) since the 2024 season started.

That contributed to the Bills losing the turnover battle 3-1, ending their record 26-game streak of not losing the turnover battle. But even those two early fumbles only led to a New England field goal as the Patriots gave one right back with Rhamondre Stevenson, who is known for that. At least he redeemed himself with two touchdowns.

Yes, the second half was like night and day as the offenses actually strung together scoring drives. Josh Allen had a bad pick in the red zone late in the third quarter on a night where James Cook was held in check. That led to a touchdown and 20-10 lead in the fourth quarter for New England.

In his first prime-time game, Drake Maye was nothing special in the first half. But he came of age in the second half with some brilliant throws that do look like a younger Josh Allen when he was breaking out in 2020. Except there was a hostile crowd in the background this time as Maye led the Patriots on scoring marches of 74, 90, and 37 yards in the second half.

Even after Buffalo tied the game at 20, Maye didn’t blink despite being 0-6 on previous game-winning drive attempts in his career. I thought his broken tackle to get a pass away to an incredible game from Stefon Diggs on the drive’s opening play was the best play of them all as a sack here could have blew things up in regulation.

Then he followed that up with a perfect 19-yard throw down the sideline. I wasn’t sure if New England’s rookie kicker was going to deliver, but maybe sixth-round pick Andres Borregales is about to start his own legacy after he was perfect on a 52-yard kick with 15 seconds left. Adam Vinatieri would be proud of that one, and I don’t think Stephen Gostkowski ever had one that significant in his long career.

The Bills didn’t have enough time to answer and took the loss to ensure we wouldn’t see any team start 5-0 this year. The Bills were only able to score 20 points on 10 drives as it’s a lot harder to score efficiently when you lose some fumbles and have poor average field position at your own 23 on the night.

The penalty yardage also cracked 90 for both teams, so it was a sloppy performance all around for both that I’m sure they’d like to improve on. But it wasn’t a fluky upset by any means like when the 2021 Patriots won by completing 2 passes on a windy night in Buffalo. The Bills haven’t been that sharp these last few games, and the Patriots made them pay for it.

I will say it’s not a great sign if the Bills need a double-digit comeback in the fourth quarter at home when they face a team that’s even remotely competent like Baltimore (Week 1 version) and now New England. The schedule is of course their crutch, but the Patriots get a very similarly easy schedule, and they don’t have to play the Chiefs, Texans, or Eagles. They get the Raiders, Giants, and Titans.

Granted, the Patriots already lost to the Raiders in Week 1, but this win should really boost their confidence. What they can’t do is let this be the peak of their season as the game was obviously personal (his word, not mine) for Stefon Diggs, who played a fantastic game in his return to Buffalo.

There’s a lot of season left, and the AFC East isn’t out of reach now that you got this win in Buffalo. But the great teams, the Patriots of old, they would build on this win and get a streak going. The Patriots have the Saints, Titans, and Browns next. Let’s see if they can get to 6-2 or not.

Maybe the oddsmakers weren’t crazy when they had this team favored in 11 games in May when the earliest lines came out. But as this game and many of the other games in Week 5 around the league showed, no one is great enough to just run the table anymore. It’s a week-to-week league, and this week the Patriots were a little better than Buffalo.

Remember, both of these teams almost lost to the Dolphins. No super teams in 2025. Game on.

Broncos at Eagles: Where Did That Come From?

We’re getting some solid evidence that Nick Sirianni is only as good as his coordinators he relies on so much. Vic Fangio stayed after the Super Bowl win, and his defense was awesome for three quarters on Sunday, forcing seven punts on eight drives while only giving up a field goal.

But in the fourth quarter, the Broncos flipped the script with three scoring drives for 18 points, including a curious decision to go for two by Sean Payton when it was a 17-16 game instead of earlier when the Broncos were down 14 as most teams like to do it. It all ended up working out, but I’m not sure the process was the best there.

Speaking of bad process, what the hell is the Philadelphia offense this year? The offensive coordinator (Kevin Patullo) is clearly in over his head as he can’t seem to strike any balance at all. The Eagles either throw the ball short the whole game, or like in this game, they neglect the run altogether.

How does Saquon Barkley get 6 carries for 30 yards to 46 plays for Jalen Hurts in a game you led 17-3 in the fourth quarter? How? Sure, the wideouts bitched about their targets last week, and that star duo got 18 targets this week. Technically, more like 19 as A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith were caught fighting over the incomplete Hail Mary to end the game in the most fitting fashion ever.

But all the passing this week didn’t help the Eagles score any points on their last five drives after that great big pass play to Barkley for a touchdown that made it 17-3. Denver finally clamped down and got multiple sacks on Hurts.

Before Denver’s final field goal, I think the late hit penalty on Zack Baun was iffy since the runner was still trying to churn forward for the yard he needed, so I understand why Baun did the hit. I also don’t think this type of late hit gets called that often.

Having said that, in hindsight, it may have helped the Eagles get a chance to win the game. Had there been no flag, the Broncos would face 4th-and-inches there. I have to think Sean Payton goes for it to end the game as 1 yard would run out the clock with the Eagles down to their last timeout. Either they call it right away or right after the 2-minute warning, but either way, if the Broncos convert 4th-and-1 with a running clock, the game is over right there.

So, that’s one way to think about the Baun call not deciding the game as I don’t think it did. What the Eagles really needed was another one of those blocked kicks but no such luck this week.

The winning streak is over, and the Eagles are going to have to play much better than this. They’ve gotten away with things for four weeks, but the Broncos had enough tricks up their sleeve to get past this team in Philly.

More will do it to them too if they don’t sort this offense out. 18 points shouldn’t be enough to beat this team, but on Sunday, it was good enough.

Texans at Ravens: Ruh-Roh

When you put Baltimore’s injuries this way, maybe I was foolish to pick them to beat a Houston team that also didn’t want to start 1-4 and can play strong defense.

But 44-10? What a walloping from a Houston team that was stuck in a 6-0 slugfest with the Titans to start the fourth quarter a week ago. I just hope people don’t act like this is all Lamar Jackson being out as the Ravens clearly are missing top players in the trenches, the secondary, linebacker Roquan Smith, and Derrick Henry (15 carries for 33 yards) just hasn’t been the same guy since the Buffalo fumble on opening night.

The final stat line for Cooper Rush is going to look bad with 3 interceptions, but he had 2 incompletions at a time when the Texans had already scored three touchdowns. The picks came later as the Texans scored on their first eight drives before calling the dogs off.

With the Rams coming up next and some of these injuries lingering, I’m not sure coach John Harbaugh can make it to next season at this rate. They might just say you’ve had enough cracks at it, we’re going in a different direction. Though, I’m not sure how many coaches would do well with a team missing this many highly-paid players.

The non-quarterback skill positions are where the Ravens are at their healthiest, but those players usually aren’t worth a lick if you don’t have a good quarterback or tackle to get them the ball.

Houston clearly viewed this as a get-right game and C.J. Stroud and company were excellent. He knew to get the ball out fast after past struggles to score any touchdowns in three games against this defense.

But that defense on Sunday? That’s not the Baltimore defense I know. I feel like the plane lady. “Those motherfvckers are not real.”

But the 1-4 record? Very real right now.

Buccaneers at Seahawks: Passing Clinic from the 2018 Class

Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold have been playing well this year and last season, but Sunday’s 38-35 shootout took things to another level. You can say it was one of the most efficient passing shootouts we’ve ever seen with the ball rarely hitting the ground.

The kind of game where the last one with the ball wins, but that’s the kind of game you don’t want to get into this year with the Buccaneers, who have now won four games by 1-3 points in five weeks. They turned things around late after trailing by 7 too, and when it looked like Darnold would be the one to drive for the field goal, he hit his lineman in the head with a ball that was then deflected for a crushing interception.

Light work for Mayfield already in field goal range, so the Bucs had an easy one to finish it off for the big win. Seattle’s defense has played so well but had no real answers for the Tampa passing game even without Mike Evans.

Emeka Egbuka continues to be one of the most impressive rookie wideouts you’ll ever see too. Caught all 7 targets for 163 yards and another touchdown. He just plays like he’s a 5-year vet in his absolute prime.

Tough way for the Seahawks to lose some ground in the NFC at home.

Commanders at Chargers: I’m Disappointed

I really thought this game had the potential to be Sunday’s best with the Chargers coming off a loss and Jayden Daniels returning for the Commanders. Daniels did his part, but the Chargers were very disappointing with 10 points scored. Justin Herbert learning exactly how hard it is when your right tackle is wasting big gains with penalties, your left tackle (Joe Alt) is out, and you’re getting a pass deflected at the line (again) for a pick.

It looked like Herbert threw his red-zone pick right to the defender but it was a deflection. That was the killer as the score was 20-10 at the time in the fourth quarter.

Then the Commanders drove 99 yards for a touchdown they didn’t necessarily need on 4th-and-goal, but I’ll sure take it since the Deebo Samuel score hit a parlay for me. I like to think that’s good karma for me singing the praises of Daniels since early last season.

But yeah, I think Herbert has really damaged his MVP chances these last two games, and the Chargers are looking like a team that’s not ready after all to overtake the Chiefs in the AFC West. Long way to go but funny how big a difference two weeks can make in this league.

Raiders at Colts: Geno Smith Spending His Nights in the Casinos?

“Diminishing returns” was probably the phrase I used the most this offseason about Geno Smith’s tenure in Seattle. But he was better than this in 2024. He’s just throwing anything he feels like with the Raiders, and he couldn’t even get the ball in the end zone once in this 40-6 loss.

Meanwhile, Daniel Jones was sharp again. No sacks, no turnovers. The Colts scored six straight touchdowns at one point. Granted, turnovers and a blocked punt meant three of them covered 58 yards, but they had drives of 83, 88, and 68 yards too.

A good sign that this offense and defense can just roll an inferior team like this.

Browns vs. Vikings: London Calling, And You Are Not the LOAT

I missed most of this game (sleeping), but it seems like Dillon Gabrield handled himself pretty well. No turnovers. Led a couple of touchdown drives (one of respectable length/effort) against a defense that’s supposed to be so hard to figure out.

But probably not going to be the next LOAT if your defense is giving up a clutch drive to Carson Wentz in London.

I thought Cleveland stayed pretty conservative on offense late and didn’t put this one away. You give Wentz five drives with those weapons to get a go-ahead touchdown, and chances are he’ll do it eventually. He was good on the last drive as was Jordan Addison on the game winner.

Lions at Bengals: Jake Browning Is Blowing It

I know some of the numbers look gaudy like those for Jared Goff, but the Detroit offense was not that special in Cincinnati. The running game only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Detroit had 14 points on six first-half drives, but that included a 17-yard drive after a Jake Browning interception.

I think this game is the opposite of Ravens-Texans in the way the backup quarterback was the one throwing the game away early here before the defense did so late. Browning’s three picks were largely brutal and in his own end of the field, making it too easy on Detroit’s offense.

The nicest thing I can say is Browning did well enough after it was 28-3 that he’ll probably keep his job for the next game. But this was just so poor early that the Bengals never stood much of a chance.

Titans at Cardinals: What. The. Fvck?

You want to see one of the worst blown leads in NFL history? Bookmark this game. The Cardinals led 21-3, so Cam Ward gets his first win and first game-winning drive with an 18-point comeback, but I can’t really give him much credit outside of the last drive was nice to set up the field goal.

But it should never have come to that. Arizona’s inability to add to the 21-6 lead in the second half is all-time bad stuff from an NFL team.

First, Kyler Murray has a fumbled snap play at the Tennessee 20 where he looks woozy and has to temporarily leave the game; just a weird looking play they described as a foot issue.

In the fourth quarter, third-year back Emari Demercado breaks off what should be a 72-yard touchdown run to make it 28-6. But when he started slowing down despite L’Jarius Snead’s pursuit, I knew he was in trouble. This was going to be a Leon Lett situation all over again. But then he dropped the ball early to celebrate and it became the 2008 DeSean Jackson play, which is about the dumbest thing you can do in a game. Adonai Mitchell (Colts) just did this shit last week to cost the Colts a game.

I would cut his ass tomorrow. He’s a UDFA who just fumbled the biggest run of his career. He’s expendable. Make a point to the rest of the league that if you do this, you get cut.

From there, good deep throw by Ward to Calvin Ridley for 47 yards to set up a touchdown, though the Cardinals missed an extra point some would argue they shouldn’t have been kicking anyway. So, it was still a 2-score game at 21-12. Then with just under 5:00 left, Ward gets picked on a tipped ball that is somehow fumbled, recovered by the Titans and good for a touchdown to make it 21-19. Just one of the craziest bounces you’ll ever see.

Let’s not close the book on Ward’s LOAT case yet. My goodness. Then of course, lackadaisical Murray and his offense couldn’t close the deal on their end with some conservative runs by the coordinator. That put it on the defense in the last two minutes, and for the third week in a row, the Cardinals watched a team win on a field goal with no time left on the clock, a first in NFL history.

This was some serious 2006 Rex Grossman shit by Tennessee winning the game that way. I wouldn’t be surprised if Arizona (2-3) craters from here a la Chicago last year after the Hail Mary in Washington.

Giants at Saints: Dropping the Dart on Your Foot

I picked the Saints to get their first win for coach Kellen Moore and quarterback Spencer Rattler as they just have more weapons to lean on than the Giants do with Malik Nabers out. That certainly proved true, but it’s not like the Giants didn’t literally fumble this game away after an early 14-3 lead before the Saints scored the final 23 points.

Jaxson Dart, they show his mom more in one game than all of Taylor Swift’s screentime in 2024. But Dart had a really bad fumble in the second half where he just dropped the ball on a scramble. Then Cam Skattebo, the other Great White Hope here had a bigger fumble that was returned for a touchdown one play into the fourth quarter when the Giants were down 19-14. That was a dagger.

Should the Saints have drafted Dart? Maybe. But this game certainly didn’t make them feel regret.

Dolphins at Panthers: One Man’s Trash Is Another Man’s Super Bowl to Call

I know Mark Sanchez has a different role (analyst) for FOX than Eric Collins (play-by-play), but it’s amusing to view this weekend as the one where FOX likely lost one and gained the other. We’ll see what the facts say about the Sanchez fight/stabbing case, but it doesn’t sound promising for his innocence and future employment.

Meanwhile, Collins may have just supplanted Gus Johnson as the guy who can bring energy to NFL games you really don’t want to watch. This guy got a 17-0 stinker between the Dolphins and Panthers where Miami forgot how to score and the Panthers kept making big play after big play behind Rico Dowdle (206 rushing yards) and company.

It ended up going back and forth, and you would have thought from the way Collins, the voice of the Charlotte Hornets, called the game that you were watching a Super Bowl or something important.

When I heard Collins say, “the Dolphins are hanging on like a cat on a screen door” I knew something great was going to come out of this guy’s mouth after that gem, and he took the internet by storm with his enthusiastic calls:

From now on, I want Eric Collins calling D-crew games. Screw hearing the likes of Spero Dedes or Jonathan Vilma doing games involving the Cardinals, Titans, Panthers, and Saints. Give me Mr. Collins from now on. Please and thank you.

But yeah, the Dolphins (1-4) are pure trash to blow a 17-point lead to a team as bad as Carolina.

Cowboys at Jets: Just End the Season…

Any idea that the Cowboys were a road fraud on offense this year was shut down by the poor defense the Jets play on a weekly basis for Aaron Glenn. The Cowboys were balanced with four touchdown passes from Dak and 180 rushing yards. I never even heard of Ryan Flournoy (2024 sixth-round pick), but the Cowboys got 114 receiving yards out of him with CeeDee Lamb still out.

Dallas led 30-3 late in the third quarter before some points in garbage time for Justin Fields and the offense. That’s two weeks in a row I picked the Jets and got burned badly. I just don’t think you can pick them to win right now. They’re poor on both sides of the ball.

Next week: Eagles-Giants on TNF isn’t the best way to start a week, but maybe some divisional drama can emerge. No chance in hell I’m getting up for Broncos-Jets in London or Germany or whatever they’re doing this week. We’ll see if the Rams can drop the Ravens to 1-5, and at this point, why shouldn’t they? Sunday afternoon is pretty bad (Bucs-49ers the best?) but it gives way to a hell of a game at night with Lions-Chiefs. Then it’s another one of those silly MNF overlapped doubleheaders (Bills-Falcons and Bears-Commanders). Much better games than last week’s, at least.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 3

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

What are two things I don’t like to see have a big impact on NFL games? The randomness of fumble recoveries and special teams making an impact. I can already see this season is going to be tough as those things have been so much of the story already with Derrick Henry’s Week 1 fumble in Buffalo and the fates of some field goals on Sunday for the Eagles and Packers already dictating things in the NFC race.

Sunday was just a wild day in the NFL as we basically had seven games where a team won comfortably (usually scoring 30+ points). Then we had seven other games that were as close as could be at the end with a lot of low-scoring finals, and it tied the record for most games in a week (seven) with the winning points scored in the final 3:00. That’s despite there only being 8 games total this week (MNF pending) with a comeback opportunity.

But what a day if you like seeing balls knocked loose and field goal units getting destroyed for blocks. The latter is kind of cool and something we started seeing more last year with a few games like Broncos-Chiefs and Packers-Bears having some notable blocks at the end. I’m probably forgetting a big one too.

It’s at the point where a blocked field goal feels far more realistic than recovering an onside kick. Maybe that’s a good thing.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Rams at Eagles: Game of the Week

This was a game I circled after the way the Rams gave the Eagles all they could handle in the divisional round. That game, along with some roster improvements, is why I thought the Rams were the best Super Bowl pick in the NFC this summer. Then those stories about Matthew Stafford’s back started coming out, and I got scared off.

Then when you see the Rams take a 26-7 lead in Philly with Davante Adams catching a long touchdown (not OPI; they were arm wrestling before it), the pass rush owning Jalen Hurts, the run defense containing Barkley, and the Rams running wild on the Eagles’ defense, you think maybe Super Bowl was the right call all along.

But then the collapse started almost immediately in the third quarter after it was 26-7. You can kind of see it coming on offense as Stafford just didn’t bring his A game for this one and they got that short field touchdown. But the defense had a complete turnaround after crushing this matchup before the Eagles finally decided to play like a 21st-century offense and use those highly-talented wide receivers down the field.

Hurts hit back-to-back plays for over 30 yards, gaining more yards than the Eagles had to that point on each play. Stafford took a sack on a 3rd-and-2 at the Philly 49, and McVay decided to punt like a fraidy cat. The Eagles turned that into an 87-yard touchdown drive with A.J. Brown making his first of the year to make it 26-21 going to the fourth quarter.

The Rams went for it this time on 4th-and-1 at the Philly 46, but Kyren Williams was stuffed. Then the Eagles went 4-and-out, and that 4th-and-7 incompletion was ill-advised if you ask me. Pin them deep as that offense was struggling now.

But starting at the 50, the Rams couldn’t make the Eagles pay for it. I don’t disagree with going for a 36-yard field goal on 4th-and-2. There’s some value to going up 8 points, since you know they can only tie you at best. But the kick was blocked with 8:42 left by Jalen Carter.

That’s when the Eagles drove 91 yards with five conversions on third or fourth down, and none of them even involved the Tush Push that the Eagles again got away with a big false start on before their first touchdown drive of the game. But the Rams couldn’t get it done on 4th-and-goal defensively, and DeVonta Smith caught the go-ahead touchdown with 1:48 left.

The only good news is the Rams stopped the 2-point conversion pass, so it was only a 27-26 game. That means a field goal wins it for the Rams, and Stafford has done this many times over. He got into range with Puka Nacua, then the running game did well enough to set up a 44-yard field goal as the final snap. That’s plenty of confidence to make that kick.

Except Jordan Davis broke through for the block this time, and he even returned it for a game-closing touchdown to win 33-26, denying us Rams +3.5 bettors an easy win with a beat as bad as any I can think of.

That also has major implications on the NFC race, making it more likely the rematch is in Philly again if there is one. The Rams also may have woken up the Philly offense from its 10-quarter slumber of forgetting how to play modern offense. Just an all-around disastrous day for the Rams who did so many things right early, but too many things wrong after it was 26-7.

Yeah, circle this one too. It’s another major part of the butterfly effect in the NFC this year. But I do think it’s an annoying double standard that people are already trying to paint the Eagles as anything but the 2024 Chiefs, who people claimed were lucky and got bailed out by the refs.

Meanwhile, the 2025 Eagles are getting called out weekly for false starts on the Tush Push and they would have had a +8 scoring differential in starting 3-0 had they not padded the number with the last return touchdown on the block.

I’d say this team is running out of steam going into the game against the team that kicked their ass last year (Tampa Bay), but the Bucs are also barely winning games this year at 3-0.

That just seems to be a consistent theme about winning so much in the NFL. Maybe we shouldn’t knock it so much as it sure beats the alternative of losing games despite good stats.

Broncos at Chargers: Best in the West?

The AFC West battle lived up to the hype as this is the kind of game you’d usually see the Chargers lose in the past. Sure, there were some Chargering moments as Najee Harris tore his Achilles on a play-action pass run fake, which was unfortunate to see. Justin Herbert had a deflected pick in scoring territory. The Broncos got away with a lucky deflected completion from Bo Nix in a big spot. J.K. Dobbins broke a 41-yard run and scored a touchdown against his former team, then the Chargers fumbled the ensuing kickoff and fortunately held Denver to a field goal instead of falling behind 21-10.

But much like last week in Indy, the Broncos didn’t finish the job in the fourth quarter on defense, and the offense was just off on too many key plays. They also had very costly penalties again this week with offensive offsides negating a first down halfway through the final quarter, then a face mask killed the drive by putting them into 2nd-and-20. Just dumb things like that.

Herbert was only 28-of-47 passing and took 5 sacks, but he still threw for 300 yards and made a great touchdown pass to Keenan Allen from 20 yards out to tie the game at 20 with 2:37 left. Again, it’s crazy that the league just let Allen go back to the Chargers like he never left. He looks good.

Denver going three-and-out after the Allen touchdown was huge. Can’t do that on such an uninspired drive that didn’t even last 50 seconds. Herbert had no issues leading the offense down the field against what’s supposed to be this great Denver defense, and Dicker the Kicker was true from 43 yards out to win in 23-20.

It’s the second week in a row the Broncos lost on the final snap of the game with the offense never registering a possession in the fourth quarter while trailing. Bad way to start 1-2, and doubly bad when you consider the Chargers are 3-0 in the AFC West now.

Chiefs at Giants: People Are Saying It’s the Ugliest 13-Point Win of All Time

Leave it up to the Chiefs to get a 22-9 road win in wire-to-wire fashion and still come away feeling like there’s so many problems. But that’s what happens when you set a high standard for years.

Still, isn’t it a hell of a lot better to win ugly than to lose a game? The Chiefs finally ended their 3-game losing slide against an opponent that isn’t going anywhere, a break from what was likely the first case in NFL history of a team playing 8 straight games against playoff opponents going back to last year.

Alas, there are some legitimate problems that persist like Jawaan Taylor’s drive-killing penalties at right tackle, Isiah Pacheco’s horrible field vision, Travis Kelce’s growing temper with mistakes, and a lot of bad discipline with too many dumb penalties. Oh, and Harrison Butker cost them 4 points by missing short, easy kicks for a kicker making that much money.

The good news is the Chiefs got two takeaways as Russell Wilson may have just lost another starting job with a terrible performance one week after he had 450 yards in Dallas. I don’t see how you don’t just go to rookie Jaxson Dart as the starter next week, and I don’t understand what the plan was last night with Dart only coming into the game for a few snaps to hand off and not throw any passes. Kill that noise. Just start him.

The other good news is Patrick Mahomes only had to scramble a couple of times as the Chiefs finally gave him 103 yards of rushing support. Tyquan Thornton also looks like their best wide receiver (career-high 71 yards and another touchdown; inches away from two scores) even though he’s supposed to be WR5 on the depth chart at best. He should play a lot of snaps even when Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice are back as he’s basically able to do the MVS role and give them some size and speed down the field.

A much tougher test awaits next week with Baltimore. But even if this team falls to 1-3, I think the way the defense has picked things up after that terrible Brazil performance and the reinforcements on the way at receiver still make this team a formidable one that can contend with anyone. What other quarterback is ranking fifth in QBR with this cast as is?

Just have to cut down on these mistakes, and I really wish Andy Reid would bench Taylor to prove a point. Why pay Jaylon Moore that much money to ride the bench?

Steelers at Patriots: 2008 Vibes

I’m still not sure the Steelers are playing all that well as a team. But seasons where they can handle New England usually go well for them. It was the turnovers forced by the defense in this one that saved the day given the offense only had 203 yards as the running game still struggled and no receiver had 35 yards. The Steelers were also getting a lot of favorable calls from the refs early for some reason.

Would have liked this kind of officiating and turnover luck in Foxboro years ago when Roethlisberger was the quarterback.

But the Patriots turned it over 5 times, their most since 5 turnovers in 2008 in a 33-10 loss to the Steelers during the Matt Cassel year. Weather at least played a factor that day. This time, the Patriots just made some poor decisions with the ball with Drake Maye’s pick before halftime in the end zone, then Rhamondre Stevenson put the ball on the ground twice as he so often does in big spots. Guy is seriously one of the worst-timed fumblers I’ve ever seen as he’s cost them several close games over the years with this shit.

But the Steelers stepped up big in the fourth quarter this week by getting a strip-sack of Maye in a tied game, then Rodgers threw probably his best pass for a 17-yard touchdown to Calvin Austin to take a 21-14 lead.

The Patriots could have answered, but Demario Douglas ended up giving up the first down with his RAC on 4th-and-1, getting tackled short of the line. The second time this year a good tackle by the Steelers on fourth down secured a win. They’re still giving up too many easy completions, but you’ll always take the turnover parade.

That’s 38 game-winning drives for Rodgers, who is in 13th place in that stat now. We’ll see if he can join the group of 40 before he finishes his career. Playing with this Pittsburgh team, it looks like the opportunities are going to be there.

Bengals at Vikings: Have a Day, Isaiah Rodgers

So much for that battle between Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson to see who is WR1 and can lift up their backup quarterback to the win. Well, the answer was clearly Justin Jefferson as he had 75 yards and didn’t lose a fumble like Chase did on an all-time bad ball security day for Cincinnati.

But it was an all-time great game by Minnesota corner Isaiah Rodgers. Seriously, if this happened in a playoff game, it’d be considered the greatest performance ever by a single defender. He had a pick-six, a forced fumble and fumble return touchdown, and he also had a second fumble forced and two passes defensed.

The craziest part? Rodgers did this all by halftime as the Bengals turned it over 5 times on the day in a real road mess. I hope people don’t just chalk this up to Joe Burrow being out. The Bengals ran the ball so poorly and five players fumbled once in what was a dreadful performance all around.

Carson Wentz had it on easy street and it didn’t matter that this was his first start with his sixth team in the last six seasons. His inexperience with Minnesota didn’t mean a lick when his defense came to play like this.

Colts at Titans: …Three Times Is a Pattern

Before Monday night, let’s just acknowledge and appreciate the craziness that is Daniel Jones leading the most effective offense in the league right now through three games. His QBR (85.7) would be the third highest in a season since 2006.

He’ll come back to Earth eventually, but three games is a pretty historic run for nearly scoring on all of your drives. Jones was making plays Sunday in Tennessee that I swear were always sacks with him in New York. It’s been crazy to watch.

As for the Titans, it’s not good Cam Ward started the game with a late throw that was returned for an easy pick-six. Just started the day on the wrong foot and it was an uphill battle from there as the Colts poured on 41 points.

Out of all the 3-0 teams, you could make the case that the Colts have played the best football quarter to quarter of them all so far. I don’t think even the most optimistic fan would have predicted that.

Texans at Jaguars: Down in a (0-3) Hole

I think one of my best NFL team previews this summer was the Houston Texans, a team I picked to finish under 9.5 wins and miss the playoffs. My worry was they had way too many new pieces on offense for a coordinator with no experience (Nick Caley), and the only thing they could hang their hat on was C.J. Stroud throwing to Nico Collins.

Well, they’re 0-3 and doing it in historic fashion:

On Sunday in Jacksonville, even the Stroud-to-Collins combo was feast or famine. Collins got behind the defense for a 50-yard touchdown to tie the game at 10. But after the Jaguars foolishly turned the ball over on downs at midfield, Collins fumbled the ball near the red zone on a catch on the ensuing drive.

Trevor Lawrence has really struggled to get his best receivers going this year. But Brian Thomas Jr. picked a good spot to make a big 46-yard catch and run. The Texans, perhaps learning from last week’s ending against Tampa, seemingly let Travis Etienne score a 10-yard touchdown run to take a 17-10 lead and ensure the Texans get the ball back with 1:42 and two timeouts left. Bold strategy.

Stroud drove the Texans to the Jacksonville 28, but with the clock a factor, he forced a deep one and it was intercepted to end the game and drop Houston to 0-3, which doesn’t look like a hole they can climb out of like they actually did back in 2018 to make the playoffs.

Packers at Browns: Not in Love

What a devastating loss for the Packers, and you have to put it on their offense as the defense only allowed 221 yards. But to blow a 10-0 lead this late is just inexcusable. Jordan Love made a terrible interception in a 10-3 game that Cleveland was able to turn into a 4-yard touchdown drive to tie the game.

Then in a true “ball don’t lie” moment, the Packers got away with a Josh Jacobs fumble because they said there wasn’t clear video of a recovery. The Packers kept it on the ground, but Brandon McManus was blocked on his 43-yard field goal with 21 seconds left. That was just enough time for Joe Flacco to set up his kicker, Szmyt, for a 55-yard walk-off field goal. This is the kicker who missed an extra-point sized kick to lose the Week 1 game to Cincinnati, but he was good here for probably the biggest upset of the season so far.

I liked the Browns holding Josh Jacobs under in yards, but I didn’t expect 16 carries for 30 yards. You can’t run on these Browns, and with the way Travis Hunter isn’t popping much for Jacksonville, maybe trading down and taking Mason Graham, who was a beast in this game, wasn’t such a bad move after all for Cleveland.

But what a brutal few minutes for Green Bay when 3-0 was in sight with a field goal, and it looked like the Rams were going to beat the Eagles. But those field goals went different ways and now the Packers look like a work in progress again as they try to get this offense going with rookie Matthew Golden and without Jayden Reed (collarbone).

More evidence it is hard to lose your de-facto WR1 and try to replace him with a rookie.

Cardinals at 49ers: You Lost to One-Legged Mac Jones?

Alright, I’m just going to say it. Kyler Murray’s laissez-faire brand of leadership combined with Marvin Harrison Jr’s. quiet, reserved attitude much like his father had is a terrible combination for NFL success. When you’re dropping passes like this (along with one in the end zone), you need someone to toughen you up. To demand more from you and your talent. And I just can’t imagine Kyler doing that with him.

The Cardinals nearly won this game in inexplicable fashion. Murray himself made a horrible play where he almost did intentional grounding in the end zone, which would have been a safety to give the 49ers the lead. Instead, the 49ers got called for a penalty in the end zone, giving Arizona a 15-13 lead on a safety. Crazy stuff.

But the Cardinals couldn’t run out the clock, which is so crucial in a 2-point game, and the 49ers got the ball back. Mac Jones is one of the worst QBs in the clutch in NFL history. Before Sunday, he was 3-17 at 4QC/GWD opportunities with plenty of turnovers in those spots.

Even in this game, he was picked in scoring territory when it was tied with 5:08 left. That was actually before the safety drive. But after getting yet another chance with 1:46 left, Jones delivered with Kendrick Bourne, a familiar face from their New England days together, making big catches on the drive. Chrisitan McCaffrey took a short pass 20 yards and that was enough to set up new kicker Eddy Pineiro for a 35-yard game-winning field goal with no time left.

You know, the kick Jake Moody probably misses. But Pineiro made it and the 49ers won 16-15 the exact kind of game they lost last year.

But I would have serious concerns about Harrison Jr. in this offense. For someone who went so high in the draft, he was easily outplayed by Ricky Pearsall (8 catches for 117 yards) on the other side, to say nothing of the other 2024 wideouts who keep producing more.

Cowboys at Bears: Oof, That D (That’s What She Said)

It says a lot about where the pass rush is for Dallas that Caleb Williams, in his 20th NFL game, did not get sacked for the first time. He also threw for 298 yards and 4 touchdowns as Ben Johnson had things cooking as the offense unleashed rookie Luther Burden, who came down with a 65-yard touchdown on a deep flea-flicker pass on his way to 101 yards.

I hate to agree with Tom Brady, but he was right on the broadcast that the Cowboys are better suited this year to deal with a CeeDee Lamb injury, which of course happened early in the game as I had him as a top touchdown scorer pick this week. Go figure, he just had to play the first snap of the second quarter before leaving for good as he couldn’t go to make sure I didn’t get any bet protection on FanDuel. Almost like it was done on purpose cause I’m not sure he played any of the final seven snaps of the first quarter when Dallas was driving. Ugh.

But this was Dak’s worst game of the season as the Cowboys were scoreless after their fourth drive and he had one pick that was pretty poor and on him.

This seems like the M.O. for Dallas this year. Dak throwing a ton to try to keep up with his defense getting shredded. This is what Jerry Jones voluntarily made possible with the Parsons trade.

But hey, good job on holding the Chicago running game to 3.0 yards per carry. That at least helped them stay under 35 points.

Saints at Seahawks: Over Right Away

Jesus Christ, I think it was over within 11 minutes. The Saints did a good job the first two weeks of challenging the Cardinals and 49ers, but they had no answers for the NFC West team from Seattle. Not when you give up a 95-yard punt return touchdown then a short field on a punt block, which snapped the second-longest streak in modern NFL history without a punt block as the Saints had gone 233 games.

Jets at Buccaneers: Baker’s Bunch Does It Again

Well, Tyrod Taylor completed 23 more passes than Justin Fields did last week, and the Jets actually erased a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter to take a stunning 27-26 lead after blocking a field goal and returning it for a touchdown with 1:49 left.

But that’s too much time for Baker Mayfield this season. Not one known for comebacks, he’s 3-0 at pulling off these last-minute drives this season. In fact, the 2025 Bucs are the first team to score the game-winning points in the final 60 seconds of its first three games to start a season. Crazy stuff.

Emeka Egbuka had another brilliant catch on the game-winning drive and deserves to be the favorite for OROY. The Bucs may have made this one closer than it needed to be, but you have to give them props for winning with a lot of offensive line injuries.

Meanwhile, the Jets have now blown 8 fourth-quarter leads over the last 17 games. It’s like Robert Saleh never left.

Falcons at Panthers: Just Doom

Man, I guess I fvcked up with that NFC South pick, huh? Maybe it’s different if they won in Week 1 against Tampa, but I have no idea how you go from a 22-6 win in Minnesota – then look what that team did Sunday – to getting blanked 30-0 to lowly Carolina. Sure, the Falcons lost to Bryce Young in overtime to end 2024, but that was a 44-38 game.

But 30-0? Okay, your new kicker missed from 49 and 55, so he’s probably not the upgrade over Younghoe Koo you thought he was, and that explains the shutout. But still, 30-6? Okay, Penix made a brutal pass that was late and went for a pick-six in the third quarter. But 23-6 in Carolina?

That’s a hope-crushing loss for Atlanta that this is going to be another wasted season. It’s not like Young was making throws out of his ass. He threw for 121 yards. It’s not like the running defense got eviscerated either. Just a no-show for the offense and that’s really disappointing as that unit is supposed to do some leading in Atlanta.

But it doesn’t look like it’s working out well so far. Remember, the defense stole the show in Minnesota last week.

Raiders at Commanders: No Jayden, No Problem

I almost forgot this game happened. So, I thought Geno Smith would play much better than Monday night, which he obviously did, and the Raiders would win as the Commanders would miss Jayden Daniels. But Marcus Mariota scored the first touchdown, had an efficient day, they broke some big plays, and it was no issue in a 41-24 win.

If you’re the Raiders, you kinda knew your defense was going to be ass outside of Maxx Crosby. But I think there needs to be some real concern with this offensive line as the run blocking just doesn’t exist for Ashton Jeanty, and Geno took 5 sacks. He’s not going to make it the full season at this rate.

Next week: Seattle-Arizona on TNF sounds like another night of doing work on the computer while I watch on my phone. I thought for months I’d be watching T.J. Watt chase J.J. McCarthy around in Ireland, but they might actually be better off with Carson Wentz. Tough game. Looks like another week where the Eagles have the best 1:00 game in Tampa Bay, a place they’ve struggled. I think Colts-Rams is a really nice backseat to Ravens-Chiefs in the late window. Packers-Cowboys has potential on SNF if Dak plays well. Monday night overlapped doubleheader is weak with Jets-Dolphins 0-4 battle and Bengals (without Joe Burrow) in Denver (1-2). Ho-hum.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Divisional Round

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

After a lackluster wild card round, the NFL’s divisional round delivered with the Chiefs inching closer to the three-peat, the Commanders pulling off an all-time upset in Detroit, a quality snow game in Philadelphia, and the most Baltimore ending possible in Buffalo.

I couldn’t personally get a parlay to hit, but at least my tight ends parlay (+539) on 365Scores was correct, and I had some other good picks like Travis Kelce having another 70-yard game in the postseason, Amon-Ra St. Brown going over 90 yards, and Terry McLaurin scoring a touchdown.

At least I was right that Ravens-Bills would not be a great quarterback duel, and it would come down to those things like fumble recoveries and avoiding big drops, which the Ravens of course failed to do again.

I’ll try to limit officiating talk here because I’d prefer to do something more in depth on that later this week. Plus, it’s just really annoying to harp on that for every game when we know the officiating is bad. None of these games were directly decided by the refs.

Save that kind of referee talk for Championship Sunday from the 2018 season (IYKYK)

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Ravens at Bills: Baltimore Blunders Strike Again

I’ll be curious to watch the season finale of Hard Knocks this week and see how John Harbaugh reacts to the latest playoff loss for his Ravens. This one was different, and yet at the same time, it was very much on brand for Baltimore throughout his tenure. I’m not sure any other recent franchise has a long list of blunders like this in close playoff losses:

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1881204200320716801

Some of those games weren’t that close (2009 Colts, 2019 Titans), but many were, and many of these plays can probably be visualized in your head by their brief mention if you’ve followed the NFL closely for years.

I’ve pounded the table for the “Same Old Steelers, let’s fire Mike Tomlin” crusade for years now in Pittsburgh, which also loses playoff games in excruciatingly similar ways year after year. But while Harbaugh can say the same of his team, I simply don’t see it the same way that he’s got to go if they’re ever going to change.

At some point, the play is out of the coach’s hands, and players have to make the plays. Catch the ball, protect the ball, make the kick. Hold onto the fucking ball, as Lamar Jackson pointed out after the game, probably the most frustrating loss of his career after he had his best season in 2024.

https://twitter.com/big_business_/status/1881180079071601140

https://twitter.com/big_business_/status/1881180079071601140

I can already see the legacy talks for Lamar won’t be kind after this game even though it was clearly his best performance in a playoff loss. If he does indeed have a third MVP win this year, good luck ever getting nominated for a fourth. People are not going to take his regular seasons seriously until he puts together a great playoff run.

Maybe that’s fair too. But what’s not fair is to lump this 27-25 loss in Buffalo in with the past Baltimore playoff losses for Lamar.

Remember that stat about how he had his game with the fewest points that season in the playoffs all four times he’s gone? He broke that streak by putting up 25 in this game (lowest game was 16 points in Pittsburgh). Unfortunately, the Ravens were 13-0 when they scored 28+ this year and 0-6 when they didn’t. They needed 28+ again to win this game too and came up a little short.

But this game was still different. Usually, Jackson loses a low-scoring game and wire-to-wire in the playoffs. This time, he led an opening touchdown drive, making some big plays on third downs and making it look easy. But Buffalo was able to answer with its own opening drive touchdown to tie it at 7.

Jackson’s next pass was intercepted on either a poor read or a ball that just got away from him. Uh-oh, here comes the narrative. He can’t handle the playoffs and this was the coldest game of his career. But the Bills punted from there, so it didn’t really harm things.

The next drive was the significant one with the Ravens driving into Buffalo territory in a 7-7 game. It always hurts when you compound mistakes in the playoffs, and the Ravens did that here. Mark Andrews dropped a pass that should have set up a 2nd-and-short, then a bad snap was high to Jackson, he tried to make too much happen on the play instead of settling for a sack and third-and-long, and he fumbled it. The Bills returned it to the Baltimore 24 and set themselves up for another one of those short touchdown drives with Josh Allen scoring from 1 yard out to go up 14-7.

Just like that, Lamar had two quick turnovers, something he hadn’t done all regular season, and the playoff choke narrative was writing itself nicely. But there was a drop and bad snap that directly preceded that mistake. He wasn’t alone there.

We used to show grace to people who made up for their mistakes, but that seems to have gone out the window in today’s society. If you look at how Jackson finished the game from there, he played great and did his job. Throw in an opening-drive touchdown, and it’s really those two plays with the turnovers that were his biggest flaws on the night.

In the past, Lamar would have just crumbled from there. This time, he made plays and strung together drives, but they still didn’t all result in touchdowns because the running game had some letdowns. I’m not sure why they didn’t pound Henry more when they had 1st-and-goal at the 2. They were stuffed, then tried throwing twice before settling for a field goal and 14-10 deficit.

Buffalo used most of the final 3:43 in the half to score a touchdown, but the drive was not without controversy. On a 3rd-and-5, Allen threw incomplete for rookie Keon Coleman, who drew a defensive pass interference flag against former Bill Tre’Davious White. The call was bullshit. That’s either OPI or preferably no flag at all since they were both engaged with each other. Just a terrible call that led to the Bills scoring another 4-yard touchdown run by Allen to take a 21-10 lead into the half.

https://twitter.com/GeneSteratore/status/1881143728703979919

https://twitter.com/GeneSteratore/status/1881143728703979919

Again, this is the spot where you expect Lamar to crumble, but it did not happen this time. It helped that the Bills punted twice in the third quarter after a couple of ineffective drives. Frankly, I have no idea what the plan was for Buffalo’s passing game. They ran a chickenshit, dink-and-dunk style passing game where Allen got the ball out the fastest he has all season, but it only kind of worked because the running game was solid with America getting a chance to see how impressive this line and trio of backs has been.

But it took Allen a long time to even break 100 passing yards, and he only finished the game with 127 passing yards and 20 rushing yards on a quiet night.

Once Henry broke through with a touchdown run on his best drive of the night by far (he finished with 84 rushing yards), the Ravens went for two. I always say they’re terrible at these, and they didn’t prove me wrong as they love throwing on them. Jackson’s pass was incomplete and the Ravens still trailed 21-19. I didn’t think it was too early to go for it there.

The Bills settled for a 51-yard field goal to make it 24-19. This was looking a lot like their playoff game in this round last year against the Chiefs with Allen mixing a good running game and the dink and dunk to have a fourth-quarter lead at home. But Jackson had his shot to go up 27-24, the same score the Chiefs won that game by last year.

It was going well until Andrews decided to try getting YAC at midfield, only for him to have the ball punched out on a huge fumble. Just the second lost fumble of his career too. He usually doesn’t try to move like that in the open field, and it was a big turning point.

The Bills turned that into points but not before a huge decision on 4th-and-2 at the Baltimore 2 with 3:31 left:

  • Do you try to go for the touchdown and 31-19 lead, putting it basically out of reach with a 2-touchdown lead and the Ravens down to one timeout?
  • Do you go for the short field goal and take a 27-19 lead, feeling comfortable that the Ravens will blow another 2PC?
  • Do you risk not getting it, and leaving yourself open to the Ravens driving for the go-ahead touchdown?

In the end, I think Sean McDermott made the right call of a field goal just because of how sure I am about Baltimore screwing up those 2PC plays. With Henry on the sideline, without Zay Flowers all game, Jackson faced his legacy drive.

I thought he did a good job with it, and maybe scoring so quickly (1:33 left) was an issue as Buffalo would have plenty of time to go get the winning score. But you’re going to take the score when it’s open, and Jackson found Isaiah Likely for the 24-yard touchdown.

But what do they do on the 2-point conversion? They’re now 2-for-9 on these in the fourth quarter when trailing with Lamar at quarterback. I even have a tweet from 2021 talking about how they go to Mark Andrews way too much in these situations and don’t connect.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1473398508220825600

Sure enough, it happened again. I even screamed “Andrews!” at the TV as I saw he was open on the right side, and the pass was thrown to him again. I thought the pass was good enough and should have been caught by a Pro Bowler, but he just flat out dropped it, solidifying his spot as the biggest choker at his position as he still hasn’t scored a touchdown in the postseason. Couldn’t even catch this game-tying play right in his hands.

https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1881168053033160798

That was it. The Bills recovered the onside kick and ran out the clock for a 27-25 win. The Ravens couldn’t overcome their minus-3 turnover margin on the road even though the tie was right there. Like Buffalo last year against Kansas City, it may have just ended in a 30-27 loss to a last second field goal, but you never know.

And you’ll never know when you make mistakes like that drop. Andrews should definitely get the brunt of the blame with his late-game mistakes. There’s just no margin for error left when you do that so late in the game to kill multiple drives.

The Bills had a 34-yard pass play on their third snap from scrimmage, then never had a play gain more than 17 yards the rest of the night. They sat back and pounced on Baltimore’s mistakes, getting the fortunate fumble and great field position from Lamar’s fumble on a bad snap, getting the bogus DPI call before halftime for an additional 4 points, and adding the insurance field goal after Andrews’ fumble that they forced with the punch-out. That was enough for the win this time.

The Ravens were kind of built to self-destruct at some point, but it’s still stunning to see that Jackson and Andrews would make these mistakes again in the biggest game of the year. It was Jackson early and Andrews late.

But the other stat that caught my attention, and maybe this is the way to bring it full circle and lay some responsibility on Harbaugh, is the lack of takeaways by the Ravens’ defense in the postseason.

Remember last year when Baltimore had the defensive triple crown? No. 1 in points allowed, sacks, and takeaways? Well, that great defense didn’t force a single takeaway in either playoff game against the Texans or Chiefs. That doesn’t mean they didn’t play well enough to win both games, but they didn’t get the takeaways that make it easier to do so like Buffalo’s been getting all year. The Bills are somehow now +16 in fumble recoveries and +27 in turnover margin this year – absurd numbers. They just set the modern NFL record with 21 straight games without losing the turnover battle.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1881273588407550258

Meanwhile, the Ravens have tied the NFL record by going four straight playoff games without a takeaway. Their last came in the 2022 AFC wild card in Cincinnati, the game started by Tyler Huntley for an injured Lamar, who hasn’t seen a takeaway in a playoff game since 2020 in Tennessee. That’s five straight playoff starts for Lamar where his defense didn’t get a turnover, which would be the longest streak in NFL history.

It’s still the ultimate team game. Baltimore’s lack of playoff success in the Jackson era has never been about only him, but he has been the central figure as the quarterback who has played well below his standards in those games.

But this game was something different. He had his mistakes, but so do many quarterbacks in big playoff games, including everyone from Joe Montana to Tom Brady to Patrick Mahomes. I don’t remember when perfection was ever the requirement to win these games.

But when your star tight end turns into whatever you want to call Andrews’ performance, and your defense doesn’t get any takeaways or create a real swing of momentum, then you’re left with coming up short like this.

I can understand why Jackson sounded extra frustrated in the post-game, and even if he was truly talking about his own turnovers, I can forgive him if he had Andrews first in mind after everything that happened this season from Likely’s toe on opening night to Kyle Hamilton’s dropped interception in Cleveland to Justin Tucker’s awful game against the Eagles to now this loss in Buffalo.

At least we know damn well that the Ravens would have choked on the 2PC in Kansas City if they went for it opening night. I said it then. But if I knew in 2021 that they were throwing too many passes in general and way too many to Andrews in these clutch 2PC moments, why don’t they know that in 2025?

Jackson is making progress in the playoffs with three pretty solid games in his last four tries. His QBR (85.8) was higher in this game than Allen’s (71.1), and yes, he even beat him in the precious EPA stat.

But is Andrews making progress in big games? No. Is the defense coming up with the kind of clutch takeaways that drove teams like the Commanders, Eagles, and Bills to wins this weekend? Nope.

At least the Ravens didn’t panic after going down 21-10 this time, but their progress in the playoffs is slow moving. Bad enough to change coaches? I’m not sure. I just know someone is always screwing up in Baltimore save for 2012, and even that year was saved by Rahim Moore taking the worst angle possible on the touchdown to Jacoby Jones (RIP) in Denver.

Had that gone like every other Baltimore postseason, I don’t think I’d be talking about Harbaugh coaching this team right now. He’d have been let go many years ago.

But the Ravens have just completed one of the most dominant 7-year runs (2018-24) in NFL history without a single Super Bowl appearance to show for it. Even the 1979 Rams got there with Vince Ferragamo at quarterback. The closest thing to Baltimore might be Buffalo if that team loses next week too. Otherwise, it’s probably the 1999-2005 Colts as the closest comparison.

That team won the Super Bowl in 2006 after people wrote them off when they followed a 9-0 start with a 3-4 finish. They still had their albatross receiver (Marvin Harrison) weighing the offense down in the postseason, but they still produced enough points and the defense finally started producing turnovers.

Maybe Baltimore can do that in 2025, but it’s tough to keep coming back after finishing short like this. The competition isn’t going away either. It’s the same demons to slay, but Baltimore might have to look in house and fix some of their own demons first. Whether that means moving forward with Likely as TE1, a different coach, or trying to become more of a pass-first offense, they need to shake things up.

And no matter what you do, hold onto the fucking ball.

Commanders at Lions: Shock and Awe

I believed in Jayden Daniels enough to cover the spread and give Detroit a battle, but I sure as hell didn’t expect a 45-31 win to end Detroit’s dream season. He had that kind of “road virtuoso” performance that is so rare in the playoffs for a considerable underdog, and he did it as a rookie – granted, the best rookie QB to ever do it.

But for as shocking as the game was, it kind of made sense too. I just wrote the other day that Detroit’s fatal flaws are Jared Goff going goofy with turnovers and the defense having too many injuries to survive a playoff run against these non-Sam Darnold-led offenses.

Sure enough, both things did them in. Goff turned it over three times in the first half, then one more for good measure at the end with the game basically out of reach. The Lions also did themselves no favors when they threw a pick on a trick play in a 38-28 game in the fourth quarter with Jameson Williams making a bonehead throw. Maybe burn that one, Ben Johnson.

But I think the clear turning point was in the second quarter. You have this fun offensive game going on. Terry McLaurin just took a pass 58 yards to the end zone for a 17-14 lead. You think Detroit is going to answer, then bang, Goff throws a bad pick-six, he gets absolutely destroyed by a cheap shot to the face on the return. That should have been a penalty to negate the touchdown and make Washington earn it on offense. Instead, they get nothing in their favor and Goff leaves the game momentarily.

That’s what started the Lions chasing a 10-point deficit the rest of the night. You like to think you can get one score before halftime, but Goff threw another pick. Then when you think you have some answers in the fourth quarter, you leave 12 men on the field defensively on a 4th-and-2, and the Commanders convert one that way in embarrassing fashion for Dan Campbell’s staff.

Then the Williams pick disaster happened, and just like that, it’s 45-28 with half a quarter to go and your season is essentially over. You can’t make up that turnover deficit against such a hot offense that played mistake free football. Daniels diagnosed the blitz so well, he didn’t take any sacks, no turnovers, and they were 3-of-4 on fourth down (not including the 12 men penalty).

It’s crazy to think the Lions were closer to winning last year’s Super Bowl than this one. I made sure not to blame Goff or Campbell’s decision making for last year’s blown lead in San Francisco in the title game. That was more about the Josh Reynold drops, the Gibbs fumble, and the deflected pass to Aiyuk that could have been picked. But this time around? Yeah, Goff shit the bed and that defense just didn’t have any answers for Daniels and company outside of a poorly run sneak by Marcus Mariota on the opening drive.

Just spectacular stuff from Washington, the only road team to win this postseason. They have one more tough task left, but why shouldn’t the best rookie quarterback ever become the first to start a Super Bowl? That’d be a hell of a story.

It also puts to shame these teams who talk about multi-year rebuilding plans and act like you need so many years to get competitive. This team won 4 games last year, hired a retread in Dan Quinn, a retread OC in Kliff Kingsbury, signed cast-off veterans like Zach Ertz and Austin Ekeler, and it’s all working because they found the right quarterback in Daniels. How can you not be impressed?

As for Detroit, it looks quite possible 2023 was their window to get it done. Beat the 49ers, and they would have had their shot at upsetting the Chiefs without great weapons on KC’s side that year and a head-to-head win to start that season in Arrowhead. The Lions aren’t going to fall off in 2025 most likely, but you wonder if they lose Johnson, what happens to the offensive creativity, and is Goff someone you can trust to go the distance in the playoffs? The defense should be healthier, but I question even if they had Aidan Hutchinson if they still have enough stars to be a championship unit on that side of the ball.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1880907234705567754

But I genuinely feel bad for Detroit fans because I thought this was going to be their year. Their aggressive calls on fourth down could have been quite the show against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl if the No. 1 seeds met. Now, maybe Washington can be that team with a true gamer and demon at quarterback in Daniels.

Rams at Eagles: Saquon the Snow Angel

My expectations for this game were low since I didn’t think the Rams had the offense to keep up if the Eagles were going to throw it more, and I expected another big game from Saquon Barkley.

But it turned out to be a good game in the snow thanks to the Rams showing Monday night wasn’t a fluke as they sacked Jalen Hurts seven times, including a couple of drives where they knocked him out of field goal range. They also recorded a safety on a sack where Hurts seemed to have no interest in trying to avoid it just minutes after a bad looking play on his knee on another sack. Maybe he needed some more time but his movement wasn’t great the rest of the game.

That kept the Rams alive, and so did a couple of missed extra points from Jake Elliott. But it’s really a miracle the Rams were 13 yards away from winning this game in the closing seconds when you consider their two lost fumbles in the second half, then giving up three touchdown runs of 40-plus yards in the game. Saquon again gashed them twice for 60+ yard scores, including what should have been the clincher from 78 yards out with 4:36 left.

But that missed extra point made it interesting at 28-15. Matthew Stafford finally started hitting some passes in succession in the no huddle, the Rams managed the clock well to get the first touchdown, and the defense stood tall on the three-and-out after sacking Hurts on an ill-advised second-down pass call.

Stafford had 2:23 left to drive 82 yards for the win, which would have been such a shocker after Barkley’s long run. The drive was going pretty well, but then the Rams had a huge false start, then picked the worst time to let Jalen Carter to crash in for a sack that brought up 4th-and-11. Stafford’s pass really wasn’t even close to Puka Nacua on the sideline and the game was over.

The Eagles had 184 rushing yards on their three big touchdown runs, and just 65 net passing yards to go with it because of the sacks. I thought A.J. Brown would step up after last week’s game, or that DeVonta Smith would be a big factor after he missed the Week 12 game. But they had 6 catches for 35 yards combined in this game.

Throw in Hurts sounding like he was high on pain medication at the end of the game and uncertain about next week, and it’s not the greatest look for next Sunday against the Commanders, who are rolling with confidence right now.

Don’t go penciling that Chiefs-Eagles rematch in by any means. It probably should happen just based on the general strength of these teams and home-field advantage, but they rarely make it look easy.

They still win though. But that was a solid effort from the Rams in weather they’re not used to playing games in.

Texans at Chiefs: When You’re Rusty and Still Win Wire-to-Wire

The Chiefs have broken the brains of so many people that I’m not sure what they’ll do if this team manages to win two more games this season. Even in a game where the Chiefs came out a bit rusty after 24 days since Christmas, they still never trailed, they found ways to make Travis Kelce look like his vintage self, and they put away the Texans with eight sacks and blocked another 35-yard field goal for good measure to the naysayers.

Were the Texans outplaying them early despite the scoreboard? Yeah, I said as much, and if you ignore dreadful special teams. But that all changed halfway through the second quarter. After Hollywood Brown dropped a perfect deep ball, Travis Kelce was left wide open over the middle where he actually made a YAC play for the longest playoff catch of his career (49 yards). The Chiefs finished that drive for a touchdown and led 13-3.

Even after that moment, the Chiefs still outscored the Texans 10-9 before intentionally taking a safety in the final seconds. The game never really felt in doubt, but that won’t stop ESPN from acting like it was a travesty the Texans lost another divisional round game. From Troy Aikman having a fit in the booth about the penalties to graphics like this after the game, they’re really trying to sell it hard that a team who lost wire-to-wire was the better team and something unnatural must have caused this loss:

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1880882765803270549

Yeah, it’s called the Texans played poorly, and the Chiefs took advantage of it.

On Sunday, the NFL supported both the roughing the passer call and late hit on Mahomes’ late slide. Don’t say the NFL never admits to errors, because I have a list of such times they did coming up this week. You may not like the dynamics of those calls with the late slide an issue, but they said any time you go to the head and neck area, it’s likely going to get a call that wouldn’t be changed even if replay assist looked at it.

Also, I can’t believe people are going to pretend like the Chiefs couldn’t overcome a 2nd-and-6, which would have been the situation after the Mahomes scramble without the 15-yard flag. Did the refs give up that touchdown on 3rd-and-goal from the 11 too? A perfect pass to Kelce while falling down to make it 20-12 in the fourth quarter.

Did the officials cause C.J. Stroud to go 1-of-8 in success rate while trailing 20-12 in the fourth quarter? He did that. The Chiefs tackled him cleanly on the opening drive that made him limp, and while he still had some good scrambles in this game, by the end of it he couldn’t move well, Steve Spagnuolo smelled blood in the water, and they racked up four of their eight sacks on one drive.

Then there’s the piss-poor special teams. You could see it on the opening snap when the Chiefs had a 63-yard return, fumbled it, but Houston failed to recover. Then the idiot (Kris Boyd) who forced the fumble threw his helmet off for a 15-yard flag, then had the nerve to go shove his position coach on the sideline.

If that wasn’t enough, the kicker Fairbairn missed an extra point, badly missed a 55-yard field goal they probably shouldn’t have attempted in the cold, and had his 35-yard kick blocked just so the Chiefs can show Denver was no fluke. That’s a 10-point swing on special teams alone, and with the Chiefs getting some good field position on several drives, that helped build up a yardage disparity.

But the other disingenuous part of that 49-0 graphic is the “outgained by 100 yards” stat of it. The Chiefs were outgained by 124 yards (336-212), but they lost 27 yards intentionally on the last drive with a couple of kneeldowns and an intentional safety. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have been outgained by 100 yards and the stat wouldn’t exist. The safety might not have been 100% necessary but the strategy was to avoid a blocked punt return touchdown, the most harmful outcome that could have happened to the Chiefs at that stage of the game.

But I’m really annoyed about hearing about officials when the Texans played this poorly. Both defenders were clearly headhunting too on the play where Mahomes gave himself up and they could have just tagged him down. They took each other out on a head-to-head hit anyway, the same team that knocked out Trevor Lawrence with a nasty concussion this season. Maybe your team just has a target on its back from these plays, Houston.

I don’t see how the ref made DeMeco Ryans delay a decision to go for a fourth-and-10, fail to call timeout, then lose a bunch of yards on a sack. Houston played poorly. Even their 82-yard touchdown drive had to gain 101 yards of offense because they kept shooting themselves in the foot with penalties. It was that inefficient of a performance in turning yards into points.

There are things I’d like to see the Chiefs do better. You’re probably not beating Buffalo with 23 points or 0 catches from Hollywood and DeAndre Hopkins. The designed plays to Worthy felt too gimmicky and not the best use of his emerging talent. The lack of go for the kill shots in Houston territory were alarming from Andy Reid, who seems to get off by keeping the game within one score.

But the Texans did not even come close to deserving to win this game. The Chiefs took advantage of their mistakes and that’s why they’re moving on to host another AFC Championship Game, their seventh appearance in a row.

Next week: Huge rematches on Championship Sunday and so much history at stake. You’re God damn right I want the rookie QB vs. the three-peat in the Super Bowl, but that could be the least likely outcome we get from this final four. The Chiefs will have to overcome their last loss with starters against Buffalo, and the Eagles have to overcome their only loss in their last 15 games against the Commanders. That’s good stuff.

NFL 2024 Divisional Round Predictions: The “Oh Fvck, It’s Finally Here” Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It’s been a pretty long week building up to my favorite NFL week of the year. After a lackluster Wild Card Weekend, I’m ready for some real drama and memorable moments that I think this round, short of a classic Super Bowl, provides the best.

Do we get it? That’s hard to say. I think these four games have a lot of potential for volatility to them.

  • Are the Chiefs rusty as hell with this 24-day window since playing the Steelers, or do they look sharp and easily get past a Houston team that flopped 34-10 in this spot a year ago after one decent half in Baltimore?
  • Does Jayden Daniels only grow his legend in Detroit in a close game, or is this payback for 1991 NFC-CG (41-10 win by Washington) and another rookie QB gets routed on the road in the playoffs by a +222 scoring differential juggernaut? I do like that it’s indoors given this week is cold as fvck and that’s probably going to hamper the other games.
  • Do Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry just run wild over the Rams and Bills again, or will Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson actually need to throw the ball for more than 150 yards this week? And can Jackson do it in the cold without his best wide receiver (Zay Flowers)?

All I know is home teams were 5-1 last week. The team who won the previous game was 3-1 in rematches. Only one losing team scored more than 14 points. Washington was the team that broke through for all three stats. Let’s see what happens this time around.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

At least we’ll get my main rooting interest this weekend out of the way first.

Texans at Chiefs (-8.5)

The Chiefs win a playoff game by more than one possession? Surely you jest. But I am nervous about this one, just because it’d be a devastating blow to see the three-peat end with this opponent in the divisional round. Losing next week to either team is whatever. It’s logical. This would even be logical if the Texans had Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, but instead they’re limping in with only Nico Collins and JAGS while hoping the defense gets a bunch of takeaways. Let’s not forget how bad Houston looked in the first half last week, which says a lot about how bad the Chargers were.

But it’s the rust thing too. 24 days off for starters is historic. I think people are reading this as a criticism of Patrick Mahomes too, but it’s not even about that. I trust him more than anyone on the Chiefs to show up. But what if it is a slow start on both sides of the ball, and you see the Chiefs get into trouble the way they did against Houston in the 2019 AFC-D when they fell behind 24-0? That’s dropped passes, a blown coverage TD on defense, a special teams mistake, etc. — All things this team is clearly capable of doing in 2024 too.

What they’re not capable of doing in 2024 anymore is coming back from a 24-0 deficit in the blink of an eye. They’ve been too methodical on offense and don’t have the big runs and YAC plays to get it done like that anymore. The Chiefs are also riding a record-tying streak of 7 games without a turnover, so that could snap in this game but they better just hope it’s not multiple turnovers or that they lose the battle there by multiple turnovers. Defense can contribute too.

But yeah, I could see someone like Jaylen Watson taking a misstep or missing an assignment in his first game since October. He has the best excuse to be rusty for the Chiefs in this game.

The Chiefs losing this game would plague hell on my mentions this weekend. But for the people talking about point differential, let’s not forget the Texans are 372 points scored, 372 points allowed this season. That’s not an impressive team. C.J. Stroud has yet to win a playoff game where his defense/ST allowed more than a net 3 points.

I think the Chiefs are playing with fire in a way that isn’t really their fault because of scheduling, getting the No. 1 seed, and injuries to key players. But working in a new LT (Humphries or Tuney) and WRs (Hollywood) this late in the year against a good pass rush isn’t the greatest. Of course, Week 16 happened too, and that’s why I’m not that concerned.

Just survive the first half and the Chiefs should be fine. But no, I’m not picking them to cover. This is the Kansas City special. They don’t cover but they still win.

Final: Chiefs 24, Texans 17

Commanders at Lions (-9.5)

Pretty cool to see the only two teams in NFL history to have 3 games in a season with 0 punts/turnovers face each other in the playoffs. I hope it is a 4th-down fever dream from both sides with dazzling plays and second guessing all night — a game so weird that David Lynch is looking down and nodding in approval.

I like those stats that the Lions have failed to win by 10 points in 8-of-9 games where they allowed 20 points and also in games where they turn it over once. I think Washington can achieve both of those things in this game, especially the scoring since they’ve had at least 18 in every game.

But it’s tough for a rookie to win games like this, and Daniels already exceeded expectations last week. Still, I’m going with the same score I had last week, the same score the Commanders lost in Baltimore this year.

Final: Lions 30, Commanders 23

Rams at Eagles (-6.5)

Yeah, you’re not going to convince me this probably won’t be the worst game this weekend. I just don’t care for watching the Eagles most of the time, and that GB game last week is a pretty solid example for why. I wish they showed a little more care in throwing the ball, but maybe this game will get it from them.

But I expect Saquon Barkley to do well without the 70-yard touchdown runs this time. You just can’t stop that line from dominating right now. Then you have an LA team on the road that hasn’t topped 20 offensive points in any of Stafford’s last 4 starts. He’s become so dependent on Puka Nacua. They haven’t scored much on the Eagles the last two years. I have very low hopes for the Rams in this one, but I do think McVay is a better coach than Sirianni, and that defense has been playing very well in the last month. You never know.

Final: Eagles 23, Rams 14

Ravens at Bills (+1.5)

I see we’re already doing that thing where “Lamar should win as the favorite” in a game where the spread has gone from Buffalo -1 to Ravens -1.5, which is still tiny as these teams are so close this year they even have the same scoring differential (+157).

More than Half of my 6,000-word AFC preview was spent on this game, so I’ve said a lot about it already.. But my main takeaway has been this:

I said it before the season that the Ravens bomb in the playoffs because they try to be the offense they aren’t with throwing the ball and leaning on Lamar to do everything. They can’t do that in this game, especially with Zay Flowers out. I think if the Ravens play bully ball and stick with the run and 2-TE formations and Lamar does very well as a dual-threat, then the Ravens have a very good chance of winning this game. Their D has been the best at limiting points in the second half of the season and they already held Buffalo to a season-low 10 points.

But do I trust the Ravens to do that if they fall behind 7 or 10 points? Will they just panic again and abandon Henry and lead Lamar into trouble in what could be the coldest game of his career? This guy is dressed like Ralphie in A Christmas Story in Houston weather. He’s going to be freezing in Buffalo.

If the game was in Baltimore, I don’t think I’d be questioning it as much. But I’m more in the camp that I need to see this team do something differently in a game like this before I believe fully in them to pull it off. So yeah, I’m probably in that mindset that if the Ravens win this game, they’ll beat the Chiefs next week as I said after Week 1 they’ll feel good for the rematch. And if it’s Houston, then hell yeah they’re going to the Super Bowl. Both of these teams will feel SB bound if that first game Saturday goes Houston’s way.

But that’s the thing. I don’t think this game is going to live up to the hype because of the weather and the fact that QB duels rarely pan out in the playoffs. It’s the defense. It’s the better OL/running game. It’s turnovers, which Buffalo better watch out for cause they are long overdue for some fumbles going against them. It’s rarely the QBs, and the four Jackson-Allen games to date haven’t been QB masterclasses at all.

Do the Ravens still win ugly games? Because they might have to here. Haven’t won a game without scoring 28 points this year, but it could happen here if the defense shows up against Allen. I don’t see the Ravens scoring 28 at all. The under 51.5 is one of my favorite picks this week, and if you’re betting on the Ravens to lose, you should probably consider under 16.5 alternate points (think it’s like +500) to keep in line with the “Lamar scores his season low in the playoffs” stat.

But I think it is a coin flip game. The Ravens are more battle tested. They kicked Buffalo’s ass already. They’re better built for this weather right now. But they just have to show us that they can adapt in a playoff game and handle the pressure on the road.

Also, I hope I’m wrong about this game. I hope it is a QB classic, but I just don’t see it living up to 2021 Allen-Mahomes in the divisional round. But the funny thing about that game is the legacy would be even greater if the Chiefs won the Super Bowl that year. They didn’t even get there, losing to the Bengals the following week.

And that’s my other point about this game. For the winner, don’t get too cocky. All this hype about the MVP and this game, it doesn’t mean a damn thing if your team just goes into Kansas City next week and loses again, putting that team one game away from a three-peat, the closest anyone’s ever been.

This is not the end, but it is for one of these teams.

Final: Bills 24, Ravens 20

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Wild Card Weekend

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

No matter what an NFL team does for 18 weeks, no matter how much work you put into reviewing their season and predicting their playoff fate, sometimes a pick parade happens, and you end up with the first 32-12 final in NFL history.

That goofy result in Houston, during their annual Bill O’Brien Saturday Afternoon Invitational, was a harbinger of the weekend to come with one-sided games won by the home team up until Sunday night when we finally got some drama courtesy of Jayden Daniels and the misadventures in snaps from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

There’s still a Monday night game between the Vikings and Rams to come, but it wasn’t the most exciting wild card weekend. That’s for sure. The Commanders-Bucs game was the only one of the five games with a second-half lead change. The only one with a comeback opportunity. The only one where both teams scored more than 14 points.

But I guess a lot of the paper tigers and heavily flawed teams have been eliminated, so we’re still on track for a good divisional round.  

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Commanders at Buccaneers: The Best Rookie Quarterback Season Ever

When Jayden Daniels scored a garbage-time touchdown run in Tampa Bay in Week 1 to produce a 37-20 final, I loved it because it allowed me to hit an improbable SGP where I had Daniels and Mike Evans both scoring two touchdowns.

Little did I know that score would keep alive a streak where the Commanders have scored at least 18 points in all 18 games this season, the 12th team in NFL history to do that, and they have a chance to become just the third to do it in 19 games as their season will continue another week after winning yet another close game in Tampa Bay this time.

After that garbage-time touchdown run by Daniels in Week 1, he made some unique history against the Giants in Week 2 when he led his offense to 7 field goals on 7 drives, the only game in NFL history like that. But Week 3 in Cincinnati was the game where I was truly sold on the kid after he put up 38 points on six drives, scoring every time he had the ball. Then he scored his first two drives in Arizona, meaning 16 straight scoring drives when you exclude kneeldowns. No known streak in NFL history by one quarterback exceeds that.

Then even when Daniels lost a game in Baltimore against a contender, I was still impressed with the way he handled himself, throwing for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns, and he led his team in rushing with 22 yards that day as little help was provided. He had no turnovers.

Then the Hail Mary happened against Chicago, and while that’s a lucky play to get the tip, his ability to manufacture that drive, get it close enough, and extend the play long enough to pull that off was impressive. The rib injury may have slowed him down for a few weeks there, but after the bye week, he’s been very good and leading his team like a veteran with several more clutch game-winning drives like the efforts against the Eagles and Falcons.

I think Daniels had arguably the best regular season ever for a rookie quarterback when you consider he threw for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, and rushed for 891 yards and 6 more scores to lead his team in rushing. That’s the kind of dual-threat season that only Lamar Jackson has pulled off this year, and at least he has Derrick Henry to help him out now. Daniels has often been the leading rusher in games for his team, and it happened again in his first playoff game.

But I think this road playoff win is also the cherry on top for giving him the edge over the likes of Ben Roethlisberger (2004), Dak Prescott (2016), and C.J. Stroud (2023) for the best rookie quarterback season ever.

Daniels just played a playoff game where his offense never punted and never turned the ball over, the kind of feat only Peyton Manning (2003 vs. Chiefs) and Josh Allen (2021 vs. Patriots) have achieved in the postseason. Granted, the Commanders turned it over on downs twice, but they also converted a few times that led to huge touchdowns that were the difference in the game.

There were only seven possessions for each team in this game, so mistakes were going to get magnified. Unfortunately for Baker Mayfield, a fumble is going to be the play people remember best from this game. The Bucs were up 17-13 and got the ball back after holding the Commanders on 4th-and-goal. I also mean literally holding as it sure looked like DPI should have been called on the Bucs for how they grabbed Zach Ertz in the end zone.

But right after Mike Evans made a great stretch effort to get a first down, the Bucs got cute with a little trickery in the backfield and the timing of the play was off, resulting in a fumbled snap that the Commaders recovered and used to go 13 yards for the go-ahead touchdown after Daniels found Terry McLaurin on a 4th-and-2.

What a crushing play and I really don’t think they needed to do something like that. I’m not sure if the plan was to hand it off or fake the handoff, but they screwed it up. Then with the chance to take the lead, the Bucs screwed that up too with Baker getting stopped on a run, setting up a 3rd-and-1 where the center’s snap timing was off, resulting in a 2-yard loss. Another snap disaster for the Bucs.

With 4:45 left, I can understand the rationale from Todd Bowles for the game-tying field goal on 4th-and-3 at the 14. You like to think you’ll get the ball back with four clock stoppages left. I don’t hate the decision to kick it, but maybe we have to start recognizing Daniels in that Patrick Mahomes kind of light as someone you simply don’t want to have the ball last.

Sure enough, Daniels was able to burn the last 4:41 while putting his team in range for an easy field goal. He used his arms and legs to get the job done. I don’t think Bowles made the best use of his timeouts either. It was going to be a 37-yard field goal by Washington as the final play of regulation, so barely longer than an extra point.

But when they showed this clip of kicker Zane Gonzalez constantly rubbing his hair as some sort of pre-kick ritual, I thought for sure this goofy MFer was going to blow the kick.

The truth is he kind of did, because the kick hit the upright only to get the favorable bounce through to send the Commanders to the divisional round for the first time since the 2005 season and to send the Buccaneers home after a crushing home loss.

Tampa will be stewing all offseason over some of those decisions like the fumbled snaps and kicking the field goal. As for Washington, this is what happens when you find the right quarterback in the draft. Daniels had a historic playoff debut, because the history of rookie quarterbacks on the road in the postseason is brutal.

In nearly 30 chances from all rookies in NFL history, Daniels joins just Sammy Baugh (the original Washington legend) from 1937 as the only rookies to win on the road while throwing for 200 yards, while throwing more than one touchdown pass, and while beating a team that actually scored more than 14 points as most rookies who in (Mark Sanchez/Joe Flacco variety) on the road in the playoffs do it on the back of a dominant defense. That’s not a multi-stat qualifier. Those are three different things where he joins Baugh as the only quarterbacks to do, and they did them all in the same game.

Daniels is “just built different” as they say these days. Washington will have its shot to shock the Lions in Detroit next.

Packers at Eagles: I Like Detroit Even More for the Super Bowl

This was the only game I predicted to be decided by double digits this weekend. I had the Eagles winning by 11 and they won by 12, so close enough. But what a terrible game to watch, and it was bad from the start when the Packers fumbled the opening kickoff. They definitely fumbled, but in a rare case, we had a close-up shot of the players fighting for the ball and what looked like a pretty decent recovery effort by the Packers to get it back:

At what point can you say the play is long over, the Packer has the ball, and is down by contact? I think that was a garbage call to say “the play stands” and give the Eagles the ball there. That was a huge call too as the Eagles needed that short field (28 yards) to get their early touchdown, because the offense was not good.

I don’t know if it was the concussion or what had Jalen Hurts out of sorts, but he was 6/13 for 39 yards at halftime despite the Eagles feeding him three turnovers from the Packers. Unfortunately, Jordan Love and the Packers couldn’t take advantage of that slow start from the passing game for Philly that saw A.J. Brown catch one ball for 10 yards and get some reading in on the sideline.

Injuries also hurt the Packers dearly as they lost multiple offensive linemen and wide receivers in this game after Christian Watson already tore his ACL last week. That’s how you end up with Bo Melton and “Malik Heath” as the targets on some of your most important plays of the season. I was waiting for Jeff Janis to show up.

In the second half, every slight answer by the Packers was met by the Eagles. A Green Bay field goal to make it 10-3 was met immediately by Dallas Goedert going off for a 24-yard touchdown that included three stiff arms of the same defender (Carrington Valentine), who might need to change his name now to avoid the shame of that highlight for Goedert.

Josh Jacobs played hard in his playoff debut for the Packers and ran hard for a great run to set up a touchdown that made it 16-10 with nearly a whole quarter to play. But instead of the defense stepping up, it let the Eagles burn half the quarter with one Tush Push along the way for a field goal that made it 19-10.

Love didn’t play well at all, but I thought his 4th-and-3 pass would have been a routine catch by a player like Romeo Doubs or Jayden Reed if they were healthy and in the game instead of Heath, who landed out of bounds with 5:03 left to end the last real threat. The Packers also were undisciplined and picked up a few silly 15-yard flags for late hits on Saquon Barkley, who was fine with a 100-yard game he only clinched in garbage time with the game wrapped up.

Actually, Love’s interception in the end zone at the 2-minute warning was some pretty blatant DPI on the Eagles, and that should have set up a first-and-goal at the 1. But the Packers already felt so defeated in a 22-10 game where they were down to one timeout that no one seemed to mind the missed call.

The Packers (11-7) finish this season getting swept by the Lions, Vikings, and Eagles as they just couldn’t beat the elite teams they were able to defeat in 2023. That’s a good formula for a one-and-done season as the No. 7 seed.

I guess we should assume the Eagles will play better than this in the rest of the playoffs, but if I’m Detroit, I don’t fear this team one bit. Not after this game.

Broncos at Bills: Sean Payton, You Tease

If you told me the Broncos wouldn’t score another point after their opening drive, I wouldn’t have believed it. Bo Nix was abandoned again by his running game, put in terrible situations all day by Sean Payton’s offense, and yet he still delivered a third-and-8 conversion and a beautiful 43-yard touchdown strike to Tony Franklin to start the game.

Maybe that should have been a warning sign that this wouldn’t be sustainable offense, but I thought it was an incredible start that showed Nix is ready for the big moment. Unfortunately, the Broncos wasted their fake punt by not going anywhere after it, then they had the loudest field goal miss I ever heard before halftime that should have made it 10-10, a spot they had to feel very comfortable with given the way their defense was getting shredded by Buffalo’s ground game and great offensive line.

But I think the game was largely lost for Denver in the second and third quarters between the weak play calls on early downs where Payton was trying to protect Nix by only making his job harder in having to convert third-and-longs.

In the third quarter, Denver went three-and-out twice with Nix only getting to drop back on third down when he needed 5 and 11 yards. That’s rubbish, and his receivers could have been better with their hands after some big drops in the game.

But the crucial drive came when Buffalo was up 13-7 in the third. Josh Allen threw a hospital ball to running back Ray Davis, which led him to a big hit that knocked him out of the game. That should have brought up third-and-13, but instead it is an automatic first down because of the flag for unnecessary roughness. The NFL made this switch years ago, and I still hate it every single time and say it shouldn’t be a penalty. The flag didn’t stop the hit, which only happened because of a terrible Allen throw that led his back right into contact.

The defender even pulled up and led with the shoulder, so he didn’t go for a helmet-to-helmet hit. I hate the way the offense gets these calls now. Later on that drive, the Bills faced a 4th-and-1. Allen scrambled for almost 7 seconds before throwing to the back of the end zone for Ty Johnson, another talented back in this offense who has done damage as a receiver. He somehow was able to keep his knee in bounds (or close enough on replay) before his foot touched out of bounds for a huge 24-yard touchdown.

I’ve said this is the difference in Buffalo this year and should share some of those numbers this week. Allen’s passes to targets in the backfield are having a huge impact since the Bills use these players down the field in mismatches. In fact, you’d be surprised how much production out of backfield targets goes to helping a quarterback win MVP. Those plays are a huge boost.

Then the Bills blew the game open on the first play of the fourth quarter when terrible tackling led to a 55-yard touchdown for Curtis Samuel to make it 28-7. Game over. The Bills held the ball for 41:43 as the Broncos couldn’t sustain offense and couldn’t slow down their running attack.

In the end, I think you have to say the Denver defense was a paper tiger this year. Patrick Surtain II might still win DPOY but not sure he had any real impact in this game. The Broncos had their worst games of the season defensively on the road against teams like the Bills, Chargers, Bengals, and Ravens, who all scored 30+. Even their 16-14 loss in Kansas City will go down as their sixth-worst game of the season in defensive EPA.

Tampa Bay was really the only qualify offense this defense slowed down this year, so that’s a disappointing way to end the season. But Payton needs to show more trust in Nix than he did in this game. He won’t be able to use the rookie excuse next time.

Steelers at Ravens: The Standard Continues

If I just started pasting in paragraphs from past articles about Pittsburgh playoff losses, would anyone even notice? They do the same thing every time, after all. This one from four years ago after they fell behind 28-0 to the Browns and lost has a lot of the same things I could go over for Saturday night’s 28-14 loss in Baltimore.

What really changed this time? Oh, there weren’t any turnovers in the game. I guess that’s an improvement on offense where they didn’t give up return scores or easy field position. Then again, I liked the fight the offense showed in some of those losses with Roethlisberger at quarterback instead of the pathetic no-show in the first half when they punted four times Saturday.

But let’s be clear. Russell Wilson was not the issue, and Justin Fields sure as hell wouldn’t have done any better in a game they were going to have to score a lot of points to win. The problem is Wilson has limitations and there’s no way you’re winning games like this with him at this stage of his career.

But the Steelers aren’t winning games like this with Mike Tomlin’s defense, which continues to be on the worst run in playoff history. That’s now six straight playoff games allowing 28+ points. No other team has more than four such games. That’s 230 points allowed in six playoff games, also a record.

The Steelers were 10-3 and ended this year with five straight wire-to-wire losses. That’s pathetic. They couldn’t even take a 3-0 lead in any of these games.

On Saturday night, they took their historically-bad playoff defense up against Lamar Jackson’s historically underperforming playoff offense, and Jackson won the matchup by halftime with a 21-0 lead and over 200 total yards from offense with his arm and legs. Derrick Henry also crucified them on the ground, and Lamar was making the Steelers look silly with the zone-read option, 2012’s trendiest offensive wrinkle in the NFL. T.J. Watt looked like he’s never defended it in his life, constantly crashing in on Henry while Lamar still had the ball. Amateur hour.

I’d say more, but what’s the point? It’s the same shit every year and nothing ever changes in Pittsburgh. It’s the worst form of NFL purgatory where you have no chance at a high draft pick, and you have no real shot to win a playoff game. Rinse and repeat. Best thing I can say is the fans were so uninterested in this game that even they weren’t taking the bait that this time would be any different.

If you start losing the fans, if you start being met with apathy, that should finally cause a shake-up with who is running this team. But until they fire Tomlin and find their next visionary coach, the standard is going to be the standard.

Chargers at Texans: Chargering Is Unstoppable

“It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead.”

That’s Kyle Reese warning Chargers fans about the curse of Chargering placed on their team. I thought Jim Harbaugh would fix it, but even he couldn’t overcome it in a playoff loss that stands to be more embarrassing than the blown 27-0 lead in Jacksonville.

At least in Jacksonville, I can say the 27-0 lead was unearned, propped up by short fields from an absurd number of takeaways before the defense blew it by playing a terrible half, and a kicker missing a 40-yard field goal that should have been enough.

But this time? I never would have believed Justin Herbert would implode like this. Not after he came out dealing with a backup tight end snatching a pass for 15 yards on the opening drive. This was going to be a vintage Herbert game. Instead, it’s the game that’s going to keep him out of every top quarterback discussion until he proves he can perform in the playoffs.

Sure, there were flaws as the short-yardage running game was terrible, Quentin Johnston predictably failed to catch a single ball in his playoff debut, and the lack of polished receivers after Ladd McConkey (he was incredible) proved to be a disaster for the Chargers.

But a lot of this was on Herbert too. After C.J. Stroud threw a pick, Herbert immediately negated it by tossing his first, forcing a deep ball on the next snap. He threw just 3 interceptions all year, and while that was always likely to regress against a high-pressure, high-takeaway defense, you don’t expect him to throw the most interceptions of his pro football career in this game.

The crusher came late in the third quarter when Herbert’s pass for McConkey was too high and intercepted for a touchdown to put the Chargers behind 20-6. Then Will Dissly dropped and deflected a pass that should have been caught for Herbert’s third pick. That one wasn’t his fault, but a lot of damage had already been done. He added a fourth pick in garbage time when it was 32-12.

But what a disastrous game as the Texans were struggling to get things going for most of the half only to still find themselves leading 10-6 at halftime. That should have been the first sign this was going to go south for the Chargers. They watched Stroud get away with an intentional grounding penalty in the end zone for a probable safety, then a bad snap led to a big play that sparked that 99-yard touchdown drive.

Then they take away a pick from Derwin James in the third quarter in the end zone that leads to a Houston field goal. Not great. That all led up to the pick parade, but the pass rush also amped up on Herbert once the Texans had some confidence they were going to win this game. Herbert was creamed in the fourth quarter.

Even after an 86-yard touchdown to McConkey, the Chargers made history by having their extra point blocked, Dicker the Kicker knocked it down instead of recovering the live ball, and the Texans returned it for the first ever defensive 2-point return in NFL playoff history to make it 25-12. Yep, that’s Chargers BINGO at that point.

This is the worst loss for the Chargers since losing that AFC divisional round game to the Mark Sanchez-led Jets in 2009. It might even be worse than that since it’s a game that shows Herbert and Harbaugh aren’t above results like this, and the Chargers are still not ready to overtake the Chiefs in the AFC West.

It really puts the Chargers in a bad spot where their best hope is to be a wild card team that is prone to having a brutal loss in the first round. I just went over that with Pittsburgh, so I can tell you it’s not a fun spot to be in at all for a fan.

See it for enough years and you just lose interest. Apathy sets in. Hope is such a better product to sell fans, because for a franchise that’s never won a Super Bowl, all they know is hope and potential.

But right now, it’s hard to see what hope the Chargers have that doesn’t simply include Andy Reid and Travis Kelce deciding to retire in a month, Bo Nix being a fraud, the Raiders hiring another bum QB/coach duo, and finding Herbert another great receiver to pair with McConkey.

Even then, Chargering just feels inevitable for this team. You can’t escape it.

Next week: It’s my favorite playoff round, but that doesn’t always mean the games will be great. Hard to not top this week, though. You can expect research on playoff rest with the Chiefs having an extended break here before they face Houston. Commanders-Lions is a fresh matchup that should be great for the offenses on Saturday night. I think Vikings-Rams at Eagles has dud written all over it, but we’ll see. Then the most hyped game of the year to this point will be Ravens at Bills. Early prediction: It won’t be a QB-driven shootout. They almost never are when they’re hyped this way, but I have all weak to explain that one.

NFL 2024 Wild Card Predictions: Legacy Shaping Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We’ve made it to the NFL playoffs and I really like this wild card slate since I don’t think any game is close to a sure thing no matter what the spreads say. Every NFC game is a rematch and we have another AFC North game between the Steelers and Ravens that I think could change the trajectory of those franchises as the 2nd-biggest game in Steelers-Ravens history after the 2008 AFC Championship Game.

Friday also saw the AP release the All-Pro teams, and the big news was Lamar Jackson getting 30 votes to 18 for Josh Allen (2 for Joe Burrow) for the first-team All-Pro quarterback selection. Unless the AP wants to reverse decades of voting standards, that should mean that Jackson will win his third MVP.

Maybe common sense won out, but I’ll just add that this only increases the pressure on Lamar to perform Saturday night. You can’t be going one-and-done as a 9.5-point home favorite to a reeling Steelers team and expect to ever get another MVP nod or have your regular seasons taken seriously.

This Week’s Articles

NFL 2024 Wild Card Predictions

I guess in the past I used to do longer previews here, but since I’ve already covered all six games other places this week, I’m just ready to recap some last second thoughts and give my final score predictions here.

Chargers at Texans (+3)

Late-night thought: Remember when Alex Smith had the game of his life (299 yards, 3 TD) in his first playoff game under Jim Harbaugh against the 2011 Saints? Remember when Colin Kaepernick had the game of his life (263 passing yards, QB record 181 rushing yards) in his first playoff game under Harbaugh against the 2012 Packers? That’d be pretty cool if Justin Herbert put on a masterpiece performance for his first NFL playoff win under Harbaugh’s guidance this afternoon.

I think the potential is there if his tackles hold up against those talented edge rushers. If you block Houston, you can pick that defense apart, which is why I like Ladd McConkey to have a big game and score in his playoff debut.

Still, I think we might be underrating Houston in the sense that they shouldn’t be expected to get crushed 31-2 like they did against the Ravens on Christmas. Between that game and 34-7 in Minnesota, they’ve had those blowouts on their resume, but this team despite all the flaws has played the Packers, Chiefs, and Lions tough this year while also beating Buffalo.

Throw in the Chargers being cursed, and it wouldn’t shock me at all to see a one-score game late. The Chargers have looked very good down the stretch but the Texans aren’t the Patriots and Raiders, and the Texans also won in this spot last year against a favored Cleveland team while their receivers outside of Nico Collins were injured.

I think it’ll be a decent game and I’m still going to trust the Chargers to pull through and win it. I like that the Chargers have yet to allow more than 20 points on the road all season long, which is getting to be one of the longest streaks in modern NFL history. It’s also a much better story to write about next week if they get to face the Chiefs for a third time.

Final: Chargers 27, Texans 20

Steelers at Ravens (-9.5)

Like I said above, I think this game could really have a huge butterfly effect on where these franchises head next. The loser could very well be on the fast track to firing their long-time head coach. If the Ravens win, it could even propel them to a Super Bowl run (finally).

The Steelers have basically repeated the 2016 AFC Championship Game in every playoff game since, so I’m over this team being anywhere near competent this time of year. They come in on a 4-game losing streak, only the third NFL playoff team to do that, and it’s hard to see things getting better here. Their saving grace is past success against Baltimore, intimate knowledge of the Ravens, (third meeting since 11/17), Zay Flowers (knee) is out, and the defense has already held this offense to its worst game of 2024.

And then there’s the Lamar Jackson playoff effect. He has to turn that around this season, but the fact that he’s admitted to being too amped up for past games and that it’s in his head this week doesn’t give me the greatest hope that he’s going to get it done.

But losing this game would be the worst yet as the Ravens are playing much better football than the Steelers, they have the No. 1 defense since Week 11 again, and I can’t stress this enough: the Steelers have allowed 31+ points in 5 straight playoff games. No other team has done that in three games. The standard is the standard.

I’ll knock the scoring down a peg out of respect for the rivalry, but I think the line is spot on.

Final: Ravens 27, Steelers 17

Broncos at Bills (-8.5)

I already got into it with my multiple previews for this game about Buffalo’s turnover regression that should happen during the playoffs. They have just 8 giveaways all year and no one but Josh Allen has lost a fumble. They’re +14 in fumble recoveries, tied for the 2nd-best out of 798 teams since 2000. Turnovers (4 of them) are why they lost to Denver at home a year ago on a Monday night. It’s the easiest, most logical way for Denver to get the upset edge here.

But I also think Bo Nix has done a good job of scoring points down the stretch and I expect Denver to exploit some things in a Buffalo defense that relies on turnovers (again, regression there too) to get the job done.

At the end of the day, I still can’t pick the rookie quarterback on the No. 7 seed on the road in an early body clock game against an experienced playoff team. But if Skylar Thompson can lose a playoff game in Buffalo by 3 points, then I think Denver can do it too.

Final: Bills 27, Broncos 24

Packers at Eagles (-4.5)

It’s Tom Brady calling a game for FOX, so it’s going to be a boring rout, right? Or does he only do that for Dallas games? Either way, I’m not overly thrilled with this one because I think the Packers have disappointed in every big game this season, and they were my Super Bowl pick before the year, mind you. They already lost to the Eagles in Brazil on a poor field. I guess there’s some drama with how Jalen Hurts will look after a few weeks out with a concussion, but he has so much talent around him that I don’t think he has to be great to win here. Just don’t offer up all those turnover opportunities like in Week 1.

Jordan Love’s elbow might be a bigger question mark. I think that could bother him in challenging a very good coverage unit. I don’t think they can rely on Jacobs as reliably as the Eagles could with Saquon.

Final: Eagles 27, Packers 16

Commanders at Buccaneers (-3)

Another Week 1 rematch, I think it goes to Tampa Bay again as the Commanders don’t have enough defense to slow down the Bucs, and I think Jayden Daniels is going to end up leading his team in rushing again as a one-man show. It’s just really hard to win in the playoffs on the road with a rookie quarterback without an elite defense. But if anyone can make this a shootout and have a chance at the end, Daniels could make this interesting.

Final: Buccaneers 30, Commanders 23

Vikings at Rams (+2.5)

I like my standalone preview for this game that tells the story of why this should be different for Minnesota from Week 8, why I still want to trust Sam Darnold to figure it out, and why I am worried that Matthew Stafford has turned into a Puka Nacua merchant in the last month and isn’t putting up yards or points.

The game moving to Arizona because of the fires is the final piece for why I like the Vikings to get the win this time.

Final: Vikings 23, Rams 17

There was a lot of playoff research I didn’t get around to this week as I learned it’s just so much work to try recapping the regular season and preparing for six playoff games in 5 days. But I’m hoping to get to it in the coming weeks.

There will be a Part 5 of the LOAT series (Mahomes vs. Brady) during the playoffs. I think I might have to wait until after the divisional round to do it instead of this coming week though.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 16

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The NFL delivered such a frontloaded Week 16 schedule that six of the likely AFC playoff teams already played on Thursday and Saturday. All that Sunday had left was Buffalo slumming it with the Patriots.

But the games were competitive, and 12 of the 15 games so far this week had a comeback opportunity with six game-winning drives already in the books. We saw a concussion knock Jalen Hurts out of the big game in Washington, an iconic performance for Jayden Daniels in the comeback win, and the Cowboys even decided to play hard Sunday night to upset the Buccaneers and bring some chaos to the NFC South.

A week ago, people were flocking towards an Eagles-Bills Super Bowl. Now, that doesn’t look so hot with the reality that neither is likely to be a No. 1 seed, and teams like the Chiefs, Lions, Vikings, Packers, and Ravens are still very much relevant in this race.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Eagles at Commanders: Kenny Pickett? (Read It in the “Scut Farkas?” Narration Voice)

Sunday’s best game on paper turned out to be the best game for reasons no one expected. Jalen Hurts was ruled out early after a concussion on a long run where he just looked a hair off after getting up. That was enough to take him out and replace him with Kenny Pickett of all people.

Oh, it was quite the Pickett experience too as he took 3 sacks with his oblivious nature to the pass rush, he threw a pick, he locked onto basically 2 receivers (A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith had 23 of the team’s 28 pass targets), the Eagles were 3-for-16 on third down, and he still made a couple of clutch throws that probably should have won the game.

But it didn’t work out this time as Philadelphia’s winning streak was snapped at 10 games. The Eagles got a 68-yard touchdown run out of Saquon Barkley, but his other 28 carries only gained 82 yards as the Commanders kept stuffing runs to stay in the game after the offense had 5 turnovers on a sloppy day where they even started the game with a turnover on downs after Brian Robinson Jr. was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 run.

The ability to withstand 5 giveaways and still come back to beat a top defense like the Eagles 36-33 is really impressive for Jayden Daniels, the rookie sensation who absolutely locked up the Offensive Rookie of the Year award here. Even with his skill players fumbling 3 times and giving him 32 rushing yards, Daniels was a dual-threat machine in this game with 258 passing yards and 81 rushing yards. The only other quarterback in NFL history to even have one game with 5 touchdown passes, 220 passing yards, and 70 rushing yards was Cam Newton in 2015 against the Giants, a game that locked up his MVP award that year.

Would things have turned out differently if Hurts wasn’t concussed? Perhaps. But it’s not like the Eagles didn’t score 33 points, didn’t lead 14-0/21-7/27-14, or didn’t rack up takeaways. They just couldn’t finish the job.

Barkley had a big drop on his only pass target in the fourth quarter. Later, Daniels made his biggest mistake with an interception with 2:53 left in a 30-28 game. But instead of icing the game, the Eagles couldn’t convert a 3rd-and-5 when Pickett’s pass was dropped by a wide-open Smith, a shockingly bad drop that’s even worse than the one Barkley had in Week 2 against Atlanta, another improbable loss for the Eagles this year and why their shot at the No. 1 seed is all but toast.

That gave Daniels another shot in a 33-28 game with 1:52 left, and he delivered another clutch drive for a 9-yard touchdown to Jamison Crowder with 6 seconds left to go up 36-33 after a 2-point conversion run.

The Commanders are still going to likely fall short of winning the NFC East, but can you imagine if the wild card match is No. 7 Washington at No. 2 Philadelphia? That just got a lot more likely and interesting after this game.

Texans at Chiefs: Stroud-Mahomes I Not Quite as Planned

When the NFL schedule came out in May, I was hyping up Texans-Chiefs as a huge game for the MVP race and No. 1 seed. I thought C.J. Stroud would be the next challenger to Patrick Mahomes in the AFC, and this game would be his chance on a national stage to show how far he and this team has come against the defending champs.

Well, the season hasn’t quite turned out that way, but both teams still came in as division winners and the Chiefs are chasing the No. 1 seed. I also think Stroud held his own and did a decent job on the road after losing Tank Dell to a gruesome knee injury. He’s already lost Stefon Diggs, so it’s basically Nico Collins and some guys, and one of those guys (tight end Dalton Schultz) had a pretty egregious drop in the second half.

But Stroud also threw two picks, and you can’t do that in Kansas City. The Chiefs are getting that turnover regression in full force now with 8 takeaways in the last two games after 10 takeaways through 13 games. The offense also hasn’t turned it over in 5 straight games, the longest streak in the Mahomes era. So, everything I was saying about turnovers for this team earlier this season is coming true now with the defense starting to get them and the offense avoiding them well.

But it was still another one-score win despite the Chiefs only spending about 5-6 minutes trailing in a game they mostly controlled. Hollywood Brown made his season debut and looked solid given he’s never played a real game before with this offense. Definitely should be a plus going forward. Even Xaiver Worthy played well and scored another touchdown. Still not getting much from the running game, but I like that the Chiefs made a real effort to get the ball out fast against an elite pass rush.

Mahomes played very well, and go figure, he showed on the opening drive that the ankle was no big deal with two huge scrambles, including a 15-yard touchdown run. The Chiefs finished with 27 points on 9 drives, and that includes Kareem Hunt sliding down at the end when he could have scored if he wanted to.

But the Chiefs are more than content with their 27-19 type of victory as they are 14-1 and march towards another No. 1 seed. They get two cracks at winning one game to clinch it.

Steelers at Ravens: Pittsburgh Might Lose Out Now

Why does this game feel so long ago when Saturday was just one day before Sunday? But I wanted to quickly touch on three things with this one.

First, Russell Wilson undoubtedly screwed things up here in a game that was more high scoring than expected and there for the taking. He got greedy on the scramble that turned into a fumble when he should have been satisfied with a 1st-and-goal. Then the pick-six after Minkah Fitzpatrick delivered an incredible pick was just a back breaker and game ender to make it 31-17 in the fourth quarter. Can’t afford those kind of mistakes on the road against a playoff opponent.

As for Mike Tomlin, I think he let the Philadelphia punt beat him twice. Tomlin was rightfully criticized for punting last week in Philadelphia before the Eagles went on to run out the final 10-plus minutes on the clock. But instead of learning the right lesson that the punt was bad because of the 27-13 score and the struggles to get Philly off the field, Tomin ignored the game situation Saturday and made another bad call when he went for a 4th-and-6 at the Baltimore 45 with a whole quarter left. Wilson threw deep to Calvin Austin for an incompletion.

Maybe it’s a moot point since two plays later, Lamar Jackson wasted Derrick Henry’s 44-yard run by throwing a pick, but I still would like to see Tomlin learn when to punt and when to go for it with better skill and reasoning instead of what feels like randomness. He got aggressive in a spot that really didn’t call for it. I also think he was frustrated the Ravens recovered all 3 of those early fumbles that could have really turned this game around. It just wasn’t Pittsburgh’s day as fumble recoveries on those plays is key to how they’ve been beating Baltimore so routinely.

But I wouldn’t say it was exactly Lamar Jackson’s day either. Sure, he threw 3 touchdowns and got his cleanest win yet against the Steelers. But he only hit one 20-yard completion in the game against a secondary that was already missing a corner (Donte Jackson) and lost another (Joey Porter Jr.) to injury. T.J. Watt wasn’t 100% after a fourth-quarter injury last week and wasn’t a factor here. The Ravens recovered Jackson’s early strip-sack fumble. He only had 25 rushing yards on 6 carries, so they kept him contained again. Then he threw a horrible pick in the red zone when the Ravens had their shot to go up two scores.

But Henry rushed for 162 yards and the Steelers left some key receivers open throughout the game. I don’t think they’d have any fear of a rematch even if it was played in Baltimore in the playoffs. George Pickens, Jackson, and Porter Jr. should be back for that one and a healthier Watt (hopefully).

We might end up seeing that too, because it wouldn’t be surprising if the Steelers lost out here with the Chiefs and Bengals up next. I guess it depends on how badly both teams need that Week 18 game.

But the Ravens needed this one to avoid losing the AFC North, and they came through. We’ll see what they do in Houston next while the Steelers have to deal with the Chiefs.

Patriots at Bills: Running Backs Matter?

As new AFC East rivals, you’re going to hear a lot of comparisons between Drake Maye and Josh Allen in the next few years, or at least for as long enough as Maye gives us a reason to.

Here’s one such comparison: Maye’s 2024 rookie season is better than Josh Allen’s 2018 rookie season. If the Patriots invest wisely this offseason, I’d expect Maye’s second season to also be better than Allen’s second season. Anything beyond that might be a stretch.

But that’s the future. As for Sunday, it’s no stretch at all to say Maye outplayed Allen in their first matchup but didn’t get the win because of the difference in how their running backs played. It was 14 degrees at kickoff, but Maye did well throwing the ball in Buffalo, making some excellent plays down the field and in tight windows on shorter throws.

The Patriots led 14-0 early, but they couldn’t build on that lead. Buffalo also quickly cut into half of it with a 46-yard touchdown run by James Cook, his fourth burst from over 40 yards for a score this year. He later added another touchdown catch on another drive where he broke a 25-yard run.

It covered up a poor game from Allen, who threw for 154 yards on 16-of-29 passing. He only had one touchdown pass and threw an ugly looking interception in the end zone that the Patriots were caught trying to return instead of taking the touchback. Allen only rushed for 30 yards too, so it just wasn’t a very effective game for him at all. His 28.7 QBR was the third lowest this week while Maye’s was 67.3.

But this game turned in the third quarter when Rhamondre Stevenson lost a fumble, setting up the Bills for a 50-yard go-ahead field goal on a drive that was just 10 yards long. The Bills led 17-14 and never trailed again from that point. I can’t help but point out all the big fumbles the skill players for the Patriots have had since 2020 after Tom Brady left the team. This didn’t use to happen to them, but it has now and Stevenson is a repeat offender with some huge fumbles in his career.

This game is another glaring example, but the stat sheet is going to show that Maye fumbled on a lateral pass to Stevenson in the fourth quarter that was returned for an easy Buffalo touchdown to make it 24-14.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1870980329097539969

Was the pass too hard? Hell no. That’s a pretty soft lob that hit Stevenson right in the hands well before any contact. The problem was he shouldn’t have thrown it as the defender was bearing down and it was going to be a huge loss even if caught. Throwing it backwards to make it a live ball instead of forward to be a swing pass that might go incomplete just made it worse.

But that play really ruined the game for New England, and I swear Stevenson is a double agent at times for this team. Don’t forget the time he choked against the Bengals in 2022 on 1st-and-goal from inside the 5.

Eventually, the Patriots scored a touchdown with 1:13 left, but they wasted almost a full minute after having 1st-and-goal at the 1 with 2:14 left. Antonio Gibson, the other back, was stuffed for a 3-yard loss, leading to an extended series of plays, including a bad dropped fumble by Maye that he recovered, that took a minute off the clock and left the Patriots with little hope of getting the ball back despite keeping all three timeouts.

Maybe Drake Maye should embrace his “the new Josh Allen” and should have did the Tush Push on that 1st-and-goal play at 2:14. Get this thing in before the 2-minute warning and the Patriots could have had 4 clock stoppages in a 24-21 game on a day where Allen wasn’t good.

But this is why the Patriots are 3-12.

Buccaneers at Cowboys: Where Was This Dallas Team Earlier?

The Cowboys (7-8) may have been eliminated from the playoffs Sunday, but they’re possibly a botched punt against Cincinnati away from a 5-game winning streak after taking down the Buccaneers in a wild 26-24 game Sunday night.

Where was this team earlier in the season when it was getting destroyed by 20-point deficits at home every week? Cooper Rush had a successful night against the Tampa Bay defense, and the Buccaneers had some really poor plays with drops and getting outmuscled for the ball by Dallas’ defense who just looked like they wanted it more all night. The interception in the fourth quarter in the end zone was a great example of that.

But what about the ending? It looked like Tampa Bay was going to pull off an improbable 9-point comeback in the last 5:00 by scoring twice. They got the ball back with 1:40 and only needed a field goal. But one of the craziest endings you’ll ever see took place. On the first snap, Baker Mayfield kept fighting to avoid a sack, flipped the ball out to receiving back Rachaad White, who carried it like a loaf of bread before securing it and gaining some YAC.

https://twitter.com/brgridiron/status/1871052626302804198

But even though he got both hands on the ball again, the Cowboys still ripped the ball away from him for a game-deciding fumble. Madness.

Tampa Bay (8-7) is going to need Atlanta to lose a game if it wants to win the NFC South again. This was a bad performance in Dallas for them.

Vikings at Seahawks: Another Close Win for Kevin O’Connell and Sam Darnold

Remember when the Vikings were 5-0 and people started writing them off after a little 2-game losing streak? Well, they’re 8-0 since their last loss, and the latest test they passed was another gut-check win on the road in Seattle against a team playing for a division title chase.

I continue to be impressed with Sam Darnold, who shook off another 3-sack game by still throwing 3 touchdowns, including the game winner from 39 yards out to Justin Jefferson with 3:51 left. Darnold has led 5 game-winning drives this season, doubling his career total he had coming into 2024.

Geno Smith played well on that knee injury for most of the game, but when push came to shove, he took a sack and a fantastic tackle on a 3rd-and-16 checkdown to the running back led to a 60-yard field goal, which was missed with 1:55 left. After Smith got the ball back with 55 seconds left and still in need of a field goal for overtime, he immediately threw a bad pick to end the game.

I’m heavily rooting for the Vikings to beat Green Bay next week so that we can get the last game of the regular season to be Vikings-Lions in Detroit for the No. 1 seed. I’m also not ruling out 2024 being Sam Darnold’s Eli/Flacco/Foles moment as we feel overdue for that kind of postseason.

Lions at Bears: On the Bright Side, No Clock Mismanagement This Time…

The Bears almost beat the Lions on Thanksgiving, but there was no such close finish this time as the score stayed 34-17 the entire final quarter. It didn’t help that the Bears had another slow start, falling behind 20-0, but you have to blame Rome Odunze for a couple of early fumble plays for that this time.

But the Lions were excellent on offense with a big game from Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs in a starring role without David Montgomery (MCL). I believe the theory that offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was “showing off” to impress the Bears’ front office if he is to be their next head coach. Calling that intentional “stumble” play with Goff throwing a touchdown was an excellent example of him pulling out all the tricks even when the Lions probably didn’t need them to beat Chicago again.

But Johnson should want to coach a team like Chicago. First, you stay out of the AFC where most of the elite quarterbacks are, and you have a chance to build up the Bears with Caleb Williams, who again had a game where I think it showed his potential more than it did problems. He threw for 334 yards, no picks again, and he only took 2 sacks this week. He was also his team’s leading rusher again with 34 yards.

Johnson is a hot commodity in the coaching ranks, so we’ll see where he lands next month. But this very well may have been part of his interview with the Bears.

Rams at Jets: Almost a Historic Game

The Rams just can’t play a “normal” game this month. They go from a 44-42 wire-to-wire win over the Bills to a 12-6 comeback win in rainy San Francisco, and now it’s a 19-9 win in New York that looks low scoring as hell, but this game actually came close to being historic.

Each team only had the ball three times in the first half as long drives ruled the day. In the third quarter, the Jets had a drive that lasted nearly 10 minutes and ended with a turnover on downs, a killer and probably a bad decision to go for a 4th-and-4 instead of a short field goal to go up 12-6.

But the Rams’ next drive bled into the fourth quarter, a game-tying field goal drive, so we had a game with just 8 total possessions with 12:44 to play. This could have set the record for the fastest 60-minute NFL game ever played and the one with the fewest possessions between two teams (think 11 would do the trick, maybe 12), but we didn’t get there in the end.

Aaron Rodgers went from some strong drive engineering as his protection held up to giving up the ball on a strip-sack as he got a little too comfortable in holding onto it. That put the Rams on a short field for a go-ahead touchdown drive as Matthew Stafford found a healthy Tyler Higbee for 11 yards. Rodgers couldn’t answer on the ensuing 4th-and-4, and the Rams added a field goal to make it 19-9.

The Jets’ last real hope was a 49-yard field goal with 2:02 left, but as has been the case all season, the kicking team blew it. Even when they tried to get one last possession back, they muffed the punt, so the special teams have been just abysmal for the 2024 Jets.

And that’s how you end up blowing your sixth 4th-quarter lead of the year to lead all teams, the most since Josh McDaniels’ Raiders in 2022. Just going to leave this here, and keep in mind it’s 15 starts that Rodgers started and finished this year as that 16 number includes last year’s Buffalo opener when he tore his Achilles.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1871091880181870770

Cardinals at Panthers: Adios, Arizona

The Cardinals (7-8) have been eliminated from the playoffs after a bad loss in Carolina. They forced overtime after trailing 20-3 early and 30-20 in the fourth quarter. But losing James Conner, who was having a huge game, didn’t help, and in overtime, the Cardianls couldn’t get a drive going. They were even so desperate to move the chains they went for a 4th-and-2 at their own 18, which would have set the Panthers up for a game-winning chipshot if they didn’t get it.

They converted, but the reason that’s a big gamble is you’re still not guaranteed to move the ball any deeper and might end up punting it back anyway. That’s exactly what happened too. Between a delay of game penalty and sack of Kyler Murray on third down, the Cardinals ended up punting from their own 4 after another penalty on top of that. By the time the Panthers got the ball for the second time in overtime, they were at midfield and it only took one Chuba Hubbard run for 28 yards to get in field goal range, then he just ended it with a 21-yard touchdown run to win 36-30.

I don’t know if Bryce Young will ever be good, but I do know that Kyler Murray just missed the playoffs for the fifth time in six years in Arizona, and no one seems to care about that. He’s reaching that Sam Bradford level of “no one cares” for a No. 1 overall pick.

Browns at Bengals: Should Have Been Jameis All Along

As it turns out, Jameis Winston had some type of injury that kept him out of action this week. It’s a shame because I think the Browns could have won this game with him taking on that defense instead of a minimal passing game from Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who took 5 sacks and threw 2 picks while leading the offense to 6 points on 10 drives. That will help the stats for the Cincinnati defense this year.

You could tell early that it wouldn’t be Cleveland’s day when D’Onta Foreman fumbled at the 1-yard line to start the game instead of taking a 7-0 lead. The Bengals were stuck on 17 points for a while, and Joe Burrow even fumbled on a strip-sack from the Cleveland 1 late in the fourth quarter when he was trying to extend his streak of games with 3 touchdown passes.

That’s why I criticize Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts for taking the easy option on the Tush Push instead of being asked to make a throw down there in a confined space. You never know what might happen, but Burrow didn’t even get a pass off here. I’m not saying the sneak isn’t the percentage play, but it’s not something we should be giving excessive credit to for the quarterback.

But Burrow got the ball back and extended his streak anyway after Myles Garrett jumped offside and Burrow went hunting for that streak on a deep throw to Ja’Marr Chase, who came down with the touchdown to make it 24-6.

But it’s all for naught if the Broncos come into Cincinnati next week and win in a de-facto playoff game. That’s going to be the biggest Cincinnati game of the last two seasons.

49ers at Dolphins: From Losing to the Chiefs in the Playoffs to 6-8 Starts

The 49ers were eliminated from the playoffs before this one kicked off in the late window. While I was watching it on RedZone and the 49ers were trailing 19-10, it hit me seeing these teams with 6-8 records after they were both in the playoffs as two of the teams the Chiefs beat that had better than +100 point differentials in 2023. What a difference a year makes for these motion merchants.

I also find myself again scoffing at the injury excuses for the 49ers, who lost again here , when you still see a roster with Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, Leonard Floyd, Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, Fred Warner, etc. You really need more than that to not lose by 12 points to the paper tiger Dolphins?

But I digress. Jake Moody being a terrible kicker is one major roster flaw as he missed a 41-yard kick in this game that wasted a third quarter drive. But late in a 22-17 game, it was pressure on Purdy that led to a bad interception and the Dolphins put it away with a long Achane touchdown run they didn’t necessarily need as the game is over if he goes down at any point inside the 40.

But hey, run it up and celebrate something as the Dolphins (7-8) are technically not eliminated yet. It’s the 49ers who are toast.

Titans at Colts: The Almost Epic Comeback of the Year  

It was only two years ago when the Colts blew a 33-0 lead to the Vikings. This time, they were up 38-7 on the Titans with 6:50 to go in the third quarter thanks to some huge touchdown runs by Jonathan Taylor, who secured the ball this week. But the Titans marched on three straight touchdown drives behind Mason Rudolph, and this was suddenly a game again at 38-30 with 2:53 left. The Titans converted a pair of 2-point conversions.

The Colts only threw 10 passes at this point, but Anthony Richardson did at least deliver an accurate throw on his 11th attempt to convert a 3rd-and-8 at the 2-minute warning, or else we might have seen a real attempt at this 31-point comeback, a true rarity in NFL history.

But by the time the Titans got the ball back, there were just 3 seconds left and they were 89 yards away from the end zone while still needing another conversion just to force overtime. Rudolph threw one of the most charitable interceptions you’ll ever see to finally end it. But what a weird finish and game overall.

The Colts (7-8) are still kicking and have a real shot at finishing 9-8 again while still missing the playoffs.

Giants at Falcons: Penix Will Always Remember His First

I hope someone pulled rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. aside after his first NFL start and win and reminded him they won’t all be this easy. You can’t count on your defense intercepting two passes for touchdowns from a quarterback like Drew Lock every week. Those returns were even longer than any offensive play the Falcons had as their longest gain was 22 yards.

But it was a 34-7 blowout, Penix didn’t take any sacks, his first interception was 100% on Kyle Pitts, and you can’t really argue with the results. But we’ll see how he does against Jayden Daniels next Sunday night as the Falcons now control their own destiny for the NFC South again.

Jaguars at Raiders: Vegas Wins (Sorta?)

The Raiders ended their 10-game losing streak with a rare comeback win against exactly the caliber of team you’d expect them to finally beat in the Jaguars. It was watching a coach (Antonio Pierce) with a 1-10 record at 4QC attempts against a quarterback (Mac Jones) with a 3-15 record in such games, so something had to give.

In the end, it was the Raiders getting the win, but is it really a win when you give the Giants (2-13) a clear path to the No. 1 pick in the draft now? Not that there’s a huge quarterback prize waiting for them in April if the draft experts are to be trusted, but the Raiders probably aren’t going to control the top of the draft now.

Next week: Five game days from Wednesday-Monday. I think we’re peaking early again on Christmas, and I also think it’s going to be the Chiefs and Ravens winning again like Saturday. Seahawks-Bears is Thursday night, so we’ll see if the Bears can ever end this losing streak before 2025. The Saturday triple-header truly looks like a bad waste of my time on the couch, but I guess Broncos-Bengals is the highlight in the middle. That doesn’t leave much for Sunday, but Packers-Vikings is a good one, and SNF is Falcons-Commanders, which takes on new intrigue of course. Lions will try to destroy the 49ers on MNF to end the week in an NFC Championship Game rematch.

NFL 2024 Week 16 Predictions: Saturday Special Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We’ll find out if the NFL made a grave error in making the Chiefs, Texans, Steelers, and Ravens play on Saturday and again on Wednesday this Christmas. This was my main talking point in May when the schedule was released as I thought these games would decide everything from the MVP to the No. 1 seed.

In a way, they will, though the MVP race isn’t quite what I had in mind. But if Lamar Jackson has any shot, he’ll have to deliver against the Steelers for once in his career. We’re still waiting on that to happen and it’s Year 7.

But huge Saturday that has me more intrigued than Sunday for sure.

This Week’s Articles

Be sure to check out those Week 16 picks as I take my shot at the new YourWay bets at FanDuel, the most robust parlay options I’ve ever seen in sports betting. I tried a couple on TNF and almost got one if not for a touchdown scorer that failed. Very interesting stuff.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1869964776865935523

NFL Week 16 Predictions

I had the Chargers in a one-score game on Thursday night. I just didn’t think a fair catch free kick would be the key to a comeback win in that one.

HOU-KC: I had higher expectations for C.J. Stroud (my preseason MVP) in this one, but it’s still an important game and the drama is surrounding Patrick Mahomes’ ankle. Not an ideal opponent to face with the way the tackles are playing and the dominant pass rush the Texans have. But if you can get the pass off, there are a lot of plays to be had against this defense, and I think Mahomes gets the job done in the first of what will hopefully be many key Texans-Chiefs games in the AFC this decade.

PIT-BAL: I explained this in the Week 16 picks at 365Scores that it’s set up well for Lamar Jackson to finally notch a good victory over the Steelers, who won’t have George Pickens and T.J. Watt won’t be 100%.But I’m still taking Steelers ATS since that number went up to 7, and I know that no matter who is taking the field, it seems like these teams play a game decided by 1-to-4 points and neither team sniffing 24 points. Can’t say the defense won’t confuse Jackson again, but I still think the Ravens come through and save their shot at winning the AFC North. But it’s the biggest Ravens-Steelers game in 8 years.

CLE-CIN: Kevin Stefanski sucks for benching Jameis Winston against a defense that he could literally throw for 500 yards against. Yeah, it might come with 5 INTs, but you still take that risk. DTR is going to make this look like Watson was starting, and I expect that to help the Bengals win another game.

CAR-ARI: I don’t like Kyler Murray’s “shit” answer to playing in 35 degree weather. I’ll take the Panthers to cover just to hedge the bet, because you can never trust Arizona. But that offense should do well and I actually expect Trey McBride to finally score a touchdown catch.

PHI-WAS: Best game Sunday, but I wish I had more data or trust in what Jayden Daniels brings to the table with this team to make a stronger pick here. He really struggled in the first matchup and I think the ribs and short week played a factor. I expect better here, but the Eagles still have the better roster on both sides of the ball.

NYG-ATL: Another game where we’re going in blind with Drew Lock vs. Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. I’ll just take the Giants to lose a close one. Falcons should spam the running game here and not ask Penix to do a ton.

TEN-IND: It took a comeback by the Colts to get the first win over the Titans this season. My gut just says last week was a disaster in Denver, the Colts are finished, and Mason Rudolph is an improvement over Will Levis. Give me the Titans in an upset.

DET-CHI: Was the 2nd half on Thanksgiving fool’s gold? The Bears could have easily won that game, and the Lions have lost even more players to injury since. You also have to be wary of Jared Goff in a matchup like this after he turned it over 3x in a road December loss in Chicago last year. I’ll cautiously take Detroit to win but not cover.

LAR-NYJ: Another game where I’m just going with the underdog at home in a non-conference matchup as Aaron Rodgers waits until it’s entirely too late to start putting up numbers and wins.

MIN-SEA: I think the Vikings are one of the best teams in the league and they will produce on offense while getting after Geno Smith or whoever plays QB for Seattle.

NE-BUF: Less of a trap game at home for Buffalo than if it was on the road, but I think a 31-17 final that still means NE covered is very possible. I’m willing to give Drake Maye some points against the team that’s allowed 42+ in back-to-back games. This is a poor NE defense though.

SF-MIA: Two irrelevant teams right now. I’ll take the mentor (Shanahan) over the student (McDaniel).

JAX-LV: Tank for Travis Bowl? I think the Jaguars take the win as the Raiders look finished.

TB-DAL: Cowboys have been playing better ball lately, but I think Tampa Bay is close to being a complete team that can hang with anyone. I like them to cover here as explained in detail in the above link’s preview.

NO-GB: Tempted to take the Saints as I hate these huge spreads, but the Packers have been lighting it up pretty good lately on offense with Jordan Love, and I think they’ll look good at home Monday night. Could be another 30-13 type of game for them.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 15

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

There were 13 games on Sunday’s NFL slate, but if you like close games, this wasn’t a good day for you. Only four games had a comeback opportunity (five for the week including TNF), and only four games were decided by fewer than 10 points.

You know it’s a rough week for close games when even the Chiefs led by 14+ points for the final 34:46. But Week 15 did still feel like a pivotal one for the Super Bowl LIX chase:

  • The Lions showed there’s no reason to trust their defense to get stops as they deal with too many injuries on that side of the ball.
  • The Bills show they might be impossible to stop in the Superdome in February if they can survive the AFC playoffs in likely wintry conditions.
  • The Chiefs have some real concerns with Patrick Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain and losing control of the top seed with a much tougher remaining schedule than Buffalo.
  • The Eagles look like a well-rounded team now that the passing game showed up against the Steelers.

Those four teams are topping the latest Super Bowl odds, but you can’t discount a run by the Ravens or Packers. I might even add the Vikings in there, but let’s see what happens Monday night first on that front. With so many comfortable wins already, maybe an upset could be in store for Monday night.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Lions: Deja Vu Role Reversal  

No matter what preconceived notions you had about Detroit losing this game, you can likely discard them. They didn’t lose because of Jared Goff, who was awesome with 494 yards, 5 touchdowns, and no turnovers on a day where his running backs were held to 35 yards on 13 carries. In fact, the game’s only turnover was a fumble by Amon-Ra St. Brown that set up the Bills on a short field.

They also didn’t lose 48-42 because of whacky Dan Campbell decisions. The Lions were 3-for-3 on fourth downs, and they even let their kicker (Jake Bates) try a 52-yard field goal before halftime. He missed on the type of kick he’s been making for them this year. That miss and the fumble hurt on a day where the Lions had little margin for error.

The Lions lost because their injury-ravaged defense had no answers for stopping the Bills, who stayed hot from last week, and Campbell knew he couldn’t rely on that unit to get stops in this one after a bad start with the Bills taking a 14-0 lead, pouncing early on big pass plays to their backup running backs.

In many ways, it was déjà vu to last week for Buffalo in their 44-42 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams, except this time they were the team that led wire-to-wire while the Lions were always stuck playing catch up. Both teams piled up over 520 yards of offense, but the Bills always made sure the Lions were behind 2-or-3 scores for all six of their second-half possessions, much like the Bills faced last week in LA. Just no chance of tying or taking the lead late.

But it did get a little interesting when the Bills had to settle for a field goal to make it 48-35 with 2:03 left. The Lions saved their timeouts and they were able to score a touchdown with 12 seconds and two timeouts left. They were very close to recovering an onside kick that could have made this a Hail Mary finish, but the Bills ultimately came out of the pile with the ball to end it.

Speaking of onside kicks, that seems to be the decision that Campbell is getting shredded for when he tried one with 12 minutes left in a 38-28 game. The Bills recovered and Mack Hollins was actually able to return it to the Detroit 5, setting up another easy touchdown drive for the Bills to go up 45-28 one play later.

But I get the call from Campbell. He knows how his defense has been playing these last few weeks, especially in the second half of games when their limited depth is greatly tested and hasn’t been able to get stops. The Lions also lost more defenders to injury in this game. I think Campbell figured he’d give stealing a possession with an onside kick recovery a try, and if they didn’t get it, at least Buffalo would score quickly than if you gave them a longer field. I don’t mind the call. I just think people are having a more negative reaction because the result was a return to the 5-yard line, which rarely happens on an onside kick.

I already get the sense that Campbell is going to face some harsh criticism in the playoffs even though his defense isn’t giving him much of a choice to trust them to get a stop.

In ending Kansas City’s 15-game winning streak and Detroit’s 11-game winning streak, that’s probably going to keep the Bills as the favorites for the Super Bowl going into the playoffs since they have a cakewalk schedule these last three weeks and every other contender doesn’t. Actually, I’m seeing Bills (+425), Lions (+440), Eagles (+450), and Chiefs (+475) at BetOnline, so it’s one of the closest 4-way races you’ll ever see. But that’s sure to change if the Bills can land the No. 1 seed, which gets a boost from the Mahomes injury.

But there’s no way I’m crowning Buffalo in Week 15. Scoring 42+ points in back-to-back road games is cool, but they’ve also just allowed 42+ points in back-to-back road games too. Of the 309 teams to allow 40 points in multiple games (consecutive or not) in the Super Bowl era (1966-2023), just one of them won the Super Bowl that year. It was the 2007 Giants.

The Bills have killed some epic winning streaks themselves this season. Maybe they even get a chance to end a 15-game winning streak for the Eagles in the Super Bowl in a rematch of 2023’s best regular-season game. That looks a bit more likely now than a Bills-Lions rematch in February with the state of the defense for Detroit.

We’ll see what Minnesota does Monday night against the Bears, but the NFC North is far from locked up for Detroit too. It still has the No. 1 seed lead over the Eagles, but the remaining schedule favors the Eagles.

Chiefs at Browns: Turnover Regression

I posted a lot of stats this week about Kansas City’s historic success despite only having 10 takeaways on the season. Part of the reason I did that is because I knew they were facing Jameis Winston and the Browns this week, and everyone knows he can be charitable with the ball.

But it’s also a matter of regression. Either the Chiefs are going to start taking the ball away more often, or they might start losing games this season. Well, the turnover regression started early on Sunday, but the Browns blew it away with turning the ball over six times in a 21-7 loss.

The special teams got it started with a forced fumble on a punt return, and that’s even after the Browns cut Kadarius Toney this week. Then Jameis Winston was intercepted in the end zone, the first of three Jameis picks before he was benched for DTR, who also threw a pick. Hell, even Trent McDuffie got the first pick of his NFL career after playing roughly 3,000 snaps for the Chiefs. Poor Nick Chubb broke his foot and lost a fumble. Just a miserable day for the Browns as the Chiefs got a huge boost in takeaways.

It’s the first Kansas City game since the wild card win against Miami in frigid temperatures where the score wasn’t within one possession at some point in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs led 21-7 for the final 18 minutes. See what happens when you get takeaways? You lead 21-0 and win 21-7 without all the drama.

But there was drama of course as Patrick Mahomes did not finish this game due to a high-ankle sprain. It was a rough second half for Mahomes with 8 straight incompletions at one point, but one has to wonder why Andy Reid would still be throwing the ball so much with a rare big lead. The Chiefs didn’t give up any sacks in this game with guard Joe Thuney getting the start at left tackle, but there were 11 quarterback hits, which should be one of the highest numbers in a game in Mahomes’ career. Letting him get hit repeatedly with a multi-touchdown lead looked quite dumb.

Everything went downhill after DeAndre Hopkins dropped a great pass on third-and-long for the third game in a row. The Chiefs kept throwing incompletions soon after that, and while their turnover regression was fantastic, they also saw their 3rd-down success rate plummet in this game as they were just 7-of-18 (38.9%) after being over 52% this year.

Mahomes’ injury actually happened on a 4th-and-3 at the Cleveland 39 with 8:01 left. Man, for all the times where you curse at Andy Reid for punting, maybe that’s a spot where you actually take a 5-yard penalty and punt and let your defense do its job, or just wait for Cleveland to turn it over again with a backup quarterback entering the game.

A lot of things have been poorly managed with the Chiefs lately, but now we’ll see how they handle this schedule crunch with games coming up on Saturday (Texans) and next Wednesday (at Steelers) while there is little margin for error if the Chiefs (13-1) want to hold off Buffalo (11-2) for the No. 1 seed that they seemingly need if they want the three-peat to happen.

But it could come down to Carson Wentz against an elite pass rush from the Texans this Saturday. Good going, Andy.

Steelers at Eagles: As Expected

Not a ton to say here because I really did expect the Eagles to win by 14+ points as the game just wasn’t that important for the Steelers, who can win the AFC North with a win in Baltimore on Saturday. Everything was stacked against them here with George Pickens still out, the Eagles being a really strong opponent with an elite defense, and you had to figure Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown would connect after grumblings in the building about their passing game. The last time they played in 2022, Hurts and Brown torched this defense, and the results Sunday weren’t far off.

Hurts and Brown were outstanding early on, and to the Steelers’ credit, they fought back to make it a 17-13 game at halftime. But what a second half for ball control for the Eagles. They had three very long drives, which helped limit the Steelers to 11 offensive snaps in the second half on just two drives. You never see that in any half.

The Eagles couldn’t be stopped, and yeah, the Steelers helped with roughing the long snapper on a field goal to extend one drive, then Najee Harris fumbled a pitch on their last real chance of tying the game.

But the Tush Push was too much to deal with, and the Eagles just kept converting crucial downs. However, Mike Tomlin deserves criticism for punting on 4th-and-7 at the Philly 46 in a 27-13 game with 10:40 left. Yeah, that’s not a great situation to be in, but you’re already down 2 touchdowns and can’t get them off the field. Just go for it.

He punted, and the Eagles went on an epic 21-play drive that consumed the final 10:29 on the clock. They converted five times on third or fourth down, a perfect way to close out a game.

I didn’t expect much from the Steelers in this game. But after an encouraging first half by the defense hanging in there, it was disappointing to see how badly they were dominated in the second half. It doesn’t paint a good picture for the rest of the season with the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals to come before the playoffs.

Dolphins at Texans: The Streak Continues (Or Begins Anew)

I know C.J. Stroud and the Texans haven’t been living up to the hype I started giving them in February. But they are the AFC South champs again, and they were home for this game, which is frankly all I needed to bet on them to beat the Miami Dolphins, one of the worst teams at beating playoff teams on the road in the Mike McDaniel era.

The Dolphins had lost every game in that scenario going back to their last win in such a game in September 2022 in Baltimore. They had lost 10 straight such games going into this season before losing in Seattle, losing in Buffalo, losing in Green Bay, and losing in Houston. However, they did win at the Rams in Week 10, and the Rams might win the NFC West instead of Seattle. So, it’s possible the streak ended at 11 games with the LA win, but it’s likely picked back up with losses in Green Bay and Houston.

I belabor this point on Miami because once you see it, it makes it really hard to ever trust them to do anything important. So, that’s why I don’t really put much value in what completion percentage Tua Tagovailoa has, or what he does against a Jets team that can’t stop blowing leads this year like last week. Show me something in a big game, and sure enough, Tagovailoa had four turnovers in this winnable game, including two picks in a fourth quarter that never changed on the scoreboard with a 20-12 final.

It’s not like Stroud was fantastic in this game. He threw 2 touchdowns to Nico Collins, who somehow only had 17 yards on 4 catches in the game. Stroud took another 4 sacks and Joe Mixon (12 carries for 23 yards) was shut down again.

This was on Tua to deliver, and he failed miserably – let’s not miss that Tyreek Hill was bad too – in another fourth quarter. Few things are this reliably predictable in the NFL like the Dolphins facing a good team on the road.

Colts at Broncos: The Signature Game for the Anthony Richardson Era?

This might be the game where people jumped off the hope train for the Shane Steichen-Anthony Richardson era for the Colts (6-8). In truth, it was neither guy who was to blame for the turning point in this loss in Denver. Jonathan Taylor looked like he scored a 41-yard touchdown run that was going to give the Colts a 20-7 lead in the third quarter, which felt like it could have been insurmountable with how badly rookie Bo Nix was playing on a 3-pick day.

But Taylor made the dumbest play in football to trigger the only situation where I don’t mind one of the dumbest rules in football being enforced. He dropped the ball prematurely before he broke the plane, resulting in a touchback and Denver’s ball. Huge mistake.

While plenty more mistakes were made by the Colts, that took a clear touchdown off the board. Denver finally took the lead in the fourth quarter on a 15-yard touchdown drive after a long punt return by Mims set them up. Then Steichen and Adonai Mitchell made the play that is the new “fake punt against the Patriots” for this era of the Colts:

https://twitter.com/YahooSports/status/1868446322149527559

Always love a play that makes me literally laugh out loud. With Mitchell’s slow release on the pitch back, you could just see this one coming from a mile away before Nik Bonitto returned it 50 yards for a crushing touchdown to make it 24-13. Richardson, who was 17-of-38 with two picks, wasn’t overcoming that deficit, and it only grew more to a 31-13 final.

That’s just a sobering finish to a game and basically the season. Now you don’t know if you can trust your coach, your quarterback, and apparently not your high draft pick on a receiver this year for 2025.

I enjoyed my years of Colts fandom while it lasted (2002-2019), but I’m glad I gave up on it before this era came along. I couldn’t stomach this level of incompetency.

Packers at Seahawks: Seattle Is in Trouble

The Seahawks (8-6) were already a slight underdog to the Rams when it came to winning the NFC West going into the weekend. When you looked at the remaining schedules, it made sense with the Rams having easier games and home field for the Week 18 meeting.

But the Seahawks also didn’t look like a real contender on Sunday night as the Packers were walking all over them in a 23-6 game. It only got mildly interesting when a Josh Jacobs fumble led to a Seattle touchdown drive with backup Sam Howell in the game for an injured Geno Smith, another big problem for Seattle to overcome the rest of the season.

But the Packers eventually put things away with another touchdown pass to Romeo Doubs, who caught both of Jordan Love’s touchdowns. The Packers are 10-4 and might be the best third-place team you’ll ever see.

As for Seattle, this defense’s performance is so clearly dependent on who they’re playing. With the Vikings and Rams still to come, that’s not encouraging.

Buccaneers at Chargers: Baker Doesn’t Care Where Your Scoring Defense Ranks

Even without Chris Godwin and a bad habit for turnovers, the Buccaneers are one of the most lethal offenses in the league this year. Even though the Chargers were still the No. 1 scoring defense, Tampa dropped 40 points in their building with 506 yards of offense, outgaining the Chargers by a full 300 yards in a 40-17 rout that was close well into the third quarter.

But Mike Evans took over with two touchdown catches in the third quarter as he’s still coming for that 1,000-yard streak despite missing games to injury, and Justin Herbert threw his first pick since September.

Tampa Bay (8-6) might actually live up to that “team you don’t want to face in the playoffs” narrative that gets forced on someone each year. As for the Chargers, I’m not going to call the defense a fraud, but it’s not a good sign when your 3 worst games are at home against the Bengals, Ravens, and Buccaneers, probably the three best offenses they’ve played this year. They just can’t keep up with teams like that given the lack of weapons around Herbert.

Ravens at Giants: The Giant Spread Goes Baltimore’s Way

We got an early sense of whether or not Lamar Jackson was being truthful about running more the rest of the season. He took off for 15 yards on the second snap from scrimmage, but this time it ended in a fumble. The Ravens declined to go for a 4th-and-1 at midfield and punted on the next drive, and you started to wonder if this biggest spread of the season (Ravens -16.5) was going to be a flop with the Ravens a little rusty after the bye week.

But they got it done eventually. While Jackson finished with 65 rushing yards, it was not a running demolition against one of the worst run defenses in the league as Derrick Henry finished with 14 carries for 67 yards and no touchdowns again. Instead, Jackson was 21-of-25 for 290 yards and 5 touchdowns, just missing out on another perfect passer rating game.

The passing game came easy for the Ravens in this one, and the same can’t be said (ever?) for the Giants, who started Tommy DeVito and ended with Tim Boyle after DeVito suffered a concussion. That helped the spread work out as Boyle missed some scoring opportunities in the 35-14 loss.

But this was supposed to be a rout. Let’s see what the Ravens do against the Steelers when the division title can be won by Pittsburgh this Saturday in Baltimore. The Ravens are already looking like a considerable favorite for that one, but we know those games have been going Pittsburgh’s way for years.

Bengals at Titans: Turnover Fest Goes Cincinnati’s Way in Mentor vs. Mentee Matchup

On the plus side, Joe Burrow threw two picks in this game, including one on the first drive, so we shouldn’t have to hear the Oppression Olympics working overtime to prop up his season for having a poor record despite a certain TD:INT ratio. He’s up to eight picks this season and also lost another fumble in this game.

But it didn’t matter as the Titans went on to turn it over six times, including a pick-six that got Will Levis immediately benched for Mason Rudolph after it was Levis’ fourth turnover. Pretty brutal stuff against this defense. The Bengals led by double digits the entire second half, one of their most comfortable wins all season.

I guess the Titans will go back to Levis next week, but they’re just playing out the schedule with little optimism for 2025. The Bengals (6-8) got some help with the Colts and Dolphins losing, or did they? The Bengals still rank behind both teams in the playoff standings, and it might have been beneficial if the Broncos lost to Indy to facilitate a collapse there while you can count on the Colts to keep losing other games.

Well, I’m sure it’ll all sort itself out but the Bengals had a good day overall at former OC Brian Callahan’s expense.

Commanders at Saints: Almost a Controversial Outcome

Playing in New Orleans again, those NFC South flashbacks must have hit Dan Quinn as the Commanders nearly blew a 17-0 lead in the second half that would have been one of the most controversial endings this season.

The Saints got back in the game by benching their new quarterback for rookie Spencer Rattler, but it was a trick play with a great catch by Alvin Kamara that got them on the board. The Commanders later had a chance to ice the game with a field goal to make it a 10-point game, but Greg Joseph missed a 54-yard field goal with 1:55 left.

That gave the Saints a chance at the tie or win, and they converted a 4th-down play to the 1-yard line in the closing seconds. But for some reason, the clock stopped at 0:09 for a solid 4 seconds before it started rolling again and that gave Rattler time to get the spike off. Had this not happened, it’s quite possible the clock would have run out. Maybe they could have gotten it with 1 second left had they seen it running out on them, but it would have been super close and that kind of clock error is inexcusable in this moment.

https://twitter.com/ChadwikoTWW/status/1868431498447323403

The Saints scored the touchdown on the last play, and they made the right decision to go for 2 and the win. But Rattler’s pass wasn’t even close in the end zone, and the Commanders (-7.5) held on for the 20-19 win after a real scare.

The only thing I’m shocked about here is that this didn’t happen in Philadelphia, because that’s the stadium where I’ve observed some real shady clock operating. But they’re apparently blaming this one on an official on the field accidentally stopping the clock when he shouldn’t have. Either way, it shouldn’t happen.

Oddly enough, this was the first time all year the Commanders successfully defended a one-score lead in the fourth quarter, the last team to do so in a game this year. What a sweat it was though.

Jets at Jaguars: Davante Adams’ Best Half

Congratulations to Aaron Rodgers on his 24th fourth-quarter comeback win, tying him with Patrick Mahomes on the career list even though his career is a dozen years shorter.

But it really was one of the greatest halves by a receiver in NFL history that made this one possible. The Jets only had 3 completions at halftime in another lackluster start. Davante Adams didn’t have a single catch, but in the second half alone, he went off for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 catches. He also caught a go-ahead 2-point conversion after his 71-yard touchdown put the Jets ahead after they almost blew their sixth 4th-quarter lead of the season.

It was also Adams who took the ball to the 1-yard line on the game-winning drive, which was a touchdown run by Breece Hall that the Jaguars may have just allowed willingly to get the ball back with some time in a 32-25 game. However, Mac Jones returned to his senses and threw a game-ending pick.

Maybe the craziest stat after Adams nearly going for a 400-yard full-game pace with that second half was that Rodgers led the Jets in rushing with 45 yards on 6 carries.

It’s too little too late for these Jets, but that was a vintage Rodgers to Adams performance that we thought we’d see earlier this year.

Cowboys at Panthers: Can See Why Carolina Is Usually the Underdog…

I can see why the Panthers have been underdogs for more than 30 straight games before Sunday where they lost 30-14 at home to Dallas. Count me in as one of the suckers who bought the fool’s gold that Carolina was doing better the last month (they really were, though) and that they could beat a Dallas team with a quarterback in Cooper Rush who couldn’t even throw for 200 yards at home against that Cincinnati defense.

Well, Rush threw 3 touchdowns in this one even if it took some great efforts from his receivers. Bryce Young had 4 turnovers and 6 sacks, including a strip-sack to start the second half when it was a 10-7 game, which really opened the floodgates on this one.

Dallas even won convincingly despite trying a 70-yard field goal that went about as poorly as you can imagine. I guess Carolina is still really bad.

Patriots at Cardinals: Third Down Differential 1991 Style

Not an interesting game as the Cardinals basically routed the Patriots to end their 3-game losing streak. But an interesting stat was on third down where the Patriots were 0-for-6 and the Cardinals were 10-for-15. It’s only the fifth game since 1991, the year they started officially tracking down stats, where one team failed to convert a single third down and their opponent converted at least two-thirds with a minimum 10 conversions.

The closest such game to this was back in 1991 when the Cardinals were 11-for-16 and the Patriots were 0-for-6 in a 24-10 win by the Phoenix Cardinals. So, there’s some more déjà vu.

Next week: Broncos-Chargers is solid for TNF with both teams hoping to make the playoffs. Saturday should have been great, but here we go with Patrick Mahomes and T.J. Watt leaving the fourth quarter with injuries and now facing a short week. Eagles-Commanders the highlight of Sunday’s early schedule even if it feels inevitable that the Eagles win the NFC East. Vikings-Seahawks the highlight in a low-key late slate. Bucs-Cowboys is a shit game for SNF that should have been flexed, but God forbid we do that to Jerry Jones. Saints-Packers should be a Green Bay rout on Monday night. So, I’m not really sure where the week peaks. Probably Steelers-Ravens for the AFC North on Saturday.

NFL 2024 Week 15 Predictions: The Gauntlet Begins Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The bye weeks are all finished for the 2024 NFL season, so it’s back to 16-game slates for the last month. But Week 15 marks the beginning of the gauntlet I’ve been talking about since May when the schedule came out. For reasons I’m sure are stupid, the league has four major AFC contenders (Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens, Texans) all playing three games 10 days apart from December 15 – December 25. They’ll all play Sunday, then they’re in action against each other next Saturday (12/21), then they’ll be playing on Christmas that Wednesday.

The winner here is really Buffalo, which had a late bye and doesn’t have to deal with this nonsense. I don’t know what the NFL was thinking other than dollars with Saturday and Wednesday island games over the holidays with contenders. But you’re just asking for players to get hurt here with such short recovery times, and some of these teams like the Chiefs had an early bye, so they really could use some rest here. Then when you have such important games and a physical game like Steelers-Ravens in the mix, it’s just a terrible idea to do this.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 15 Predictions

Silly me for thinking the 49ers would salvage their season and not get swept by the Rams, or blow their 4th 4Q lead in a division game this season. They are done now.

WAS-NO: Got an inexperienced QB starting for the Saints, so that’s a wild card here. The spread might be a little high for Washington, but the bye week should have helped, they’ve blown some weak teams out this year, so I’m just going to roll with Jayden Daniels outscoring the Saints by 8+.

CIN-TEN: Could be a good underdog spot for Brian Callahan’s knowledge of the Bengals, but I just can’t bring myself to betting on the Titans and Will Levis after losing 10-6 last week to the Jags with Mac Jones. That’s beyond the pale.

MIA-HOU: Dolphins are really playing better football right now than Houston, but the Texans had their bye, they should still win the AFC South, and I’m just going to play the streak that this is the type of game Miami loses on the road every time.

KC-CLE: I like for Jameis to put up some big numbers, but will we actually see the KC defense get some picks this week? They’re dying for some regression there. But I wouldn’t bet on the spread here as much as I’d take the best bet this year: Chiefs by 1-13 points. But KC better have answers for blocking Myles Garrett, who is coming for his 100th sack. That’s a good defensive prop pick to bet on here.

DAL-CAR: Been a few seasons since the Panthers were favored. I’m going to trust them too since I think it’s been a month of impressive football given where this team was to start the year. Bryce Young is better than Cooper Rush, and I’m going to trust Xavier Legette, who is hilarious to listen to, making up for last week’s drop with a big play.

NYJ-JAX: Again, Aaron Rodgers should probably just retire on the spot if he can’t beat the 3-10 Jags with Mac Jones. But we’ve been burned before on the Jets this year.

BAL-NYG: I see a 30-14 type of game here, which will piss off the Baltimore -16.5 bettors. But this is the biggest spread of the season so far.

IND-DEN: Fine with eating crow on this one but I just think a rested Denver pass defense is going to make Anthony Richardson look terrible, and the Broncos should have a varied attack against that defense in a comfortable cover.

NE-ARI: Naming defenders on these teams is a tough task. I think Drake Maye could keep it close again, but I’m taking the Cards to end their 3-game losing streak.

TB-LAC: Could be one of Sunday’s best games. I’m going to assume and hope that Ladd McConkey is playing, which is why I like the Chargers at home. Just think the defense can get more takeaways out of Baker Mayfield and the Chargers will win the turnover battle while keeping that offense in check.

PIT-PHI: If Bryce Young could nearly (and should have) beat the Eagles in Philly, what’s stopping Russell Wilson? Well, I wanted to take the Steelers ATS here, but the lack of George Pickens is huge in a matchup like this against a strong defense and potent offense. You can get away without Pickens against Cleveland at home but it’s a different story here. I also see the Eagles perking up with their passing game after rumblings from their WRs that they aren’t getting enough targets. Basically, I think the Steelers blow this game off as it doesn’t really matter. Just win next Saturday in Baltimore and you’re the AFC North champions. Nothing that happens this Sunday changes that fact that next Saturday is the big one.

BUF-DET: Super Bowl preview? It could be. I’ve bounced back and forth on this one. Ultimately, I think the Lions are due for a loss after barely getting by the Bears and Packers in the division. Unfamiliar opponent here. Lots of injuries on defense too, and we’ve seen the Lions really struggle to stop teams from scoring after good starts to their last two games. I think Josh Allen will have a good game and Jared Goff might make a late mistake or Dan Campbell’s 4th down gamble backfires this time and the Bills win by 1-to-6 points.

GB-SEA: I think the Packers are the better team with the better quarterback, experienced coach, and Geno Smith likely won’t go back-to-back games without a sack or turnover. But it could be a good one Sunday night.

CHI-MIN: Crazy comeback by the Bears last time to force overtime and give the Vikings a scare. Minnesota’s been playing tight games but I think it can open up a big lead and score on this Chicago team with Sam Darnold playing arguably his best ball all year right now.

ATL-LV: Seriously, how do you pick a MNF doubleheader this shitty? I don’t really care to watch either game. But it would be a disaster for Kirk Cousins to get outplayed by Desmond Ridder of all people. He has to come through here and get Atlanta back on track. If not, then they might as well turn things over to Penix.