We’re only one game into NFL Week 12 and it’s already a big result as the Houston Texans (6-5) proved they have the best defense this season, and they’re finally above .500 for the first time this season and back in the playoff hunt.
Meanwhile, I warned Buffalo fans all offseason that they would have to deal with turnover regression while not doing a ton to really improve the roster of a team that feasted on fumble recoveries, a schedule that saw them go 2-3 against winning teams, superior field position, and a historically low number of negative plays on offense that never felt sustainable with a quarterback known for his gunslinger ways.
Buffalo Bills 2025 Preview
Schedule sets them up beautifully for No. 1 seed
But is a team that added Palmer, Bosa, White, Hairston really that much better than 2024?
Did I still ultimately buy into the Buffalo hype and predict them to finish as the No.1 seed? Yes. But I never had them going to the Super Bowl this year, and after Thursday night’s loss, it sure looks like they’ll have a hard time winning three straight road games to get there as the Patriots (9-2) are the team that’s taking advantage of an even easier schedule (3 games vs. 4th-place teams compared to first-place schedule) and should win the division.
But nothing is decided yet as we continue to see this weird AFC season where the Patriots, Colts, and Broncos have the best records, and it’s not looking good for the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bills to win those divisions and maybe not even make the playoffs in 2025.
We get a huge game in Kansas City this weekend with the Colts (8-2) coming off a bye week. I did a little preview in the NFL picks piece below for that one, but it’s such an intriguing matchup as the Colts have a lot of things in their favor:
Colts use a lot of play-action passing, which the Chiefs have been horrible against on defense.
Colts have Jonathan Taylor in peak mode, and the Chiefs have allowed James Cook to rush for over 100 this year.
Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has been one of the best at making things difficult for Mahomes and the offense.
Ability to play man coverage vs. KC wideouts with Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward (back healthy).
Colts had a bye week to prepare for the Chiefs, who have been labeled as predictable in recent losses to Bills and Broncos.
Alas, the Colts have been giving up sacks lately, and the Chiefs need to dial up blitzes and rely on the crowd noise to bother Daniel Jones, who was listed with a calf injury this week. Does his mobility get compromised and that leads to some sacks and takeaways for a KC defense that plays much better at home? We’ll see. Offense also needs to run the ball more when given so many light boxes, and they have ran it well in the last two meetings with Anarumo’s Bengals defenses.
It’s a huge game as a win can legitimize the Colts even more in the AFC. It could also spark the Chiefs to go on a run all the way through the postseason too. A lot on the line.
I wish that game was on at 4:25 PM as I’ll be stuck watching Bears vs. Steelers, which has a one-score game written all over it even if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play. I’m thinking he will though since it is his last crack at the Bears and the injury isn’t to his throwing hand. But that’s a tough game with the leading defenses in turnovers, and that’s another pivotal one as the Steelers winning as a road underdog would be another blow to Baltimore’s hopes of storming back from 1-5 to win the AFC North.
In the QB rankings this week, I talk about how the Chiefs are failing Patrick Mahomes by going in the opposite direction of QB dependence in a league that is increasingly about making it easier on the QB. Also talked about the sobering losses for the Seahawks and Lions as you just can’t trust Sam Darnold and Jared Goff in big games.
For the picks, I got a Colts-Chiefs parlay, and I say go nuts and bet on the sack props in Raiders vs. Browns.
NFL Week 12 Predictions
Yeah, I thought the Bills could win by a TD, but at least I was right about the under.
NE-CIN: It sounds like Joe Flacco is going to start again instead of Joe Burrow. Not sure I’d change my pick there because I think without Ja’Marr Chase, it’ll be hard to keep up with the Patriots when Cincy has the worst defense in the NFL.
PIT-CHI: Like I said, I think it’s a very close game, and the Bears have been pulling those off this year better than Pittsburgh. Just feels like a Tomlin letdown spot on the road.
NYJ-BAL: Unless I read a parody account, it sounds like Justin Fields has been benched for Tyrod Taylor. Good news. Ravens should still win but I like a backdoor cover for the Jets.
SEA-TEN: I just can’t see the Titans topping 14 points here unless Darnold keeps throwing picks to give them short fields. Seattle should bounce back here.
NYG-DET: No Jaxson Dart. I think the over is a good pick as the Lions should pile up points on a horrible defense in the dome. Less confident in the spread as Jameis could be good for the backdoor.
MIN-GB: Packers haven’t covered these big spreads all year, but from what I’ve seen of J.J. McCarthy, he isn’t going to play well on the road in Lambeau. Give me GB to finally cover one.
IND-KC: Ah, I hedged with the classic Chiefs win but don’t cover. Colts really could win it outright, but I’ll give the Chiefs one more bone at home in a virtual must-win situation. But the Colts have been a thorn in their side for 30 years.
CLE-LV: I’ll take Maxx Crosby and the Raiders to win the sack fest.
JAX-ARI: No real vibe on this one. Think Brissett moves the ball better than Lawrence and the Cardinals find a way at home.
ATL-NO: Another one I don’t have any strong lean for. Falcons are due a win. Turn the offense over to the run game and sack the inexperienced QB in his 3rd start.
PHI-DAL: I like the Philly offense to get on track against that defense and for the Philly defense to slow down Dak and those receivers.
TB-LAR: McVay usually has a good feel for what Bowles is doing. Still not enough weapons for the Bucs. I’ll take the Rams at home by 7.
CAR-SF: Biggest game for the Panthers in years. I think they can keep it close but I like a low-scoring game here.
We knew Week 12 didn’t look good on paper. But sometimes those games produce some of the best endings, and that happened in the NFL’s early Sunday afternoon slate with arguably the best witching hour of the season. The Bears, Commanders, and Panthers were all in the process of pulling off insane comebacks to tie the Vikings, Cowboys, and Chiefs, and somehow, they all still lost.
In fact, Sunday’s only fourth-quarter lead change was in the wild Texans-Titans game with the mayo-loving Will Levis, and that’s not a reference to his ejaculation video.
We had our first double-digit favorite lose a game outright in 2024 with Washington (-10.5) falling in epic fashion to the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys. With Washington and Houston (-7.5) both losing Sunday, that makes 19 games this season where a team favored by at least 6 points lost. There were 23 games all last season, playoffs included, with 10 such upsets coming after Thanksgiving, so we should see that number exceeded this year. This ties 2020 (19) and is already more than 2022 (16), but it happened 31 times in 2021, so maybe it won’t be a record-setting season for upsets in that regard.
Still got the big one to come Monday night (Chargers-Ravens), and given we’re about to go two weeks without a team winning after trailing by double digits, that’d be a perfect game to end the drought. The question is which team do you trust more to blow the lead? The Chargers have history, but maybe things are different under this Harbaugh, and the Ravens have blown plenty of multi-score leads since 2022.
Looking forward to it, but so far, only 6-of-12 games have had a comeback opportunity this week.
Chiefs at Panthers: What Kind of Kansas City Team Are You?
Every Kansas City season in the Patrick Mahomes era has been a unique team that brought a different approach from the previous year. The offense was never more explosive than in 2018, and the defense was never stingier than it was in 2023. But the hope that the 2024 team would be the first truly balanced, elite Chiefs team on both sides of the ball looks to be a pipe dream at this point.
The offense keeps trending up, and the defense has just played its two worst games of the last two seasons in the last two weeks in Buffalo and Carolina. But it’s one thing to struggle with Josh Allen in your eighth matchup with him since 2020. Having to scrape out a 30-27 win against Bryce Young in another low-possession game where each team had eight drives is just painful and worrisome.
The good news is the Chiefs are 10-1 and have the best finisher in the league in Mahomes, who had no problem leading his fifth game-winning drive of 2024 (career high) with his legs again providing the pivotal play with a 33-yard scramble. He finished with 269 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 60 rushing yards as the offense looked as good as it has all year against a truly bad opponent.
The bad news is the Chiefs look like a team that is becoming fully dependent on its quarterback and skill players to lead the way to victory, and that style doesn’t win championships in the NFL.
You can’t trust the offensive line anymore. Never mind their gross share of the 10 penalties for 91 yards the Chiefs had, they also let one of the worst pass rushes in the league sack Mahomes 5 times, something he’s only had happen one other time in his career. His passing was sharp from start to finish, but those sacks prevented the Chiefs from ever leading by more than 14 points.
Then there’s the defense, which made Bryce Young look like a blossoming star with big throws down the field as he threw for 263 yards in the best game of his career. They only sacked him twice, and he was able to deliver a game-tying touchdown drive with 1:46 left. I think you have to be optimistic about Young for maybe the first time ever if you’re Carolina after this game.
Having said that, I do think the penalty on the Chiefs for the hard hit on the 2-point conversion was a bullshit call. He hit him too hard to knock the ball out. Why should that be a penalty? He didn’t lead with the head on it. Terrible call, which allowed the Panthers to run it in from the 1-yard line with Chuba Hubbard to tie the game at 27.
But that’s another game where the defense flat out choked with a chance to end the game or at least get the offense the ball back. It happened in Buffalo last week on the 4th-and-2 touchdown run, it happened in the last 6:00 against Denver where the 35-yard field goal would have lost the game for Kansas City, and it happened against Tampa Bay when they let Baker Mayfield tie the game late instead of shutting the door.
That’s a month of this defense not closing in crunch time, and now they’re allowing a lot of points and yards too. It’s not a good sign going forward. We can talk about injuries, but it’s not like the offense hasn’t had its share of those this season. They’re still improving with Noah Gray having another 2-touchdown game after having one in Buffalo too. Even Xavier Worthy didn’t do anything screwy this week as the Chiefs also had no turnovers in this game.
I think you can see after the 31-yard game-winning field goal by the new kicker that the Chiefs weren’t that thrilled about winning this game this way. Maybe that will become the identity of the 2024 Chiefs. Whether they’re playing the Bills or Panthers, you can count on the margin for error to be tiny, and they’re playing with fire on a weekly basis.
They may need to get burned a few more times before January to get it out of their system. But it looks like we can put the “elite defense” to rest in Kansas City. They had a good run since 2023, but it ended this month.
Cowboys at Commanders: Under Bettors in Absolute Shambles
What the hell was that? Cowboys-Commanders is the first game in NFL history where neither team scored more than 3 points by halftime and still ended with 60 combined points. The previous record was a 1979 game (Saints at Buccaneers) where a scoreless first half led to a 42-14 win for the Saints.
Needless scoring is a good way to describe a lot of this game, which was a defensive slugfest/offensive shitfest for over three quarters. I guess we can’t take a Kliff Kingsbury-coached offense seriously once November strikes and the tape roll gets that long, because I thought for sure the Commanders would look fresh and rejuvenated after their layoff following the loss to the Eagles. Also, Cowboys’ defense is another reason.
But this was an ugly game as it took Jayden Daniels taking off for a 17-yard touchdown run to get a touchdown on the board in the third quarter. But the Commanders missed an extra point, and while that particular point didn’t come back to haunt them since they converted a 2-point try later, it should have been a sign of things to come, and arguably a decision maker for coach Dan Quinn and Kingsbury.
The defense didn’t do the best job of stopping Cooper Rush from using CeeDee Lamb on short throws and putting together scores to take a 13-9 lead with 8:11 left. After the Commanders fumbled a completion, it was 20-9 on a short field touchdown with 5:08 left. That finally motivated Daniels to play with a no-huddle tempo and desperation, and he threw a touchdown to Zach Ertz with a 2-point conversion to make it 20-17 with 3:02 left.
But that’s when the game really took a turn as Turpin nearly lost the ball on the kickoff before regathering himself for a 99-yard return touchdown. Down 27-17 with 2:49 left, it looked like Daniels would do something miraculous after his kicker came through with a 51-yard field goal, the defense forced a three-and-out thanks to a timely sack, and he got his chance in a 27-20 game 33 seconds left.
He was 86 yards away from the end zone, but this isn’t unlike his Hail Mary drive against Chicago. The difference is this time he threw a good pass to Terry McLaurin that should have been a gain out to midfield, but McLaurin had the angle, the speed, and he kept it going all the way to the end zone for the touchdown with 21 seconds left. What a miracle score.
But now you have to ask should they go for 2? The Cowboys have a kicker (Brandon Aubrey) with huge range and they had one timeout left, but 21 seconds is pretty solid time to defend any drive there. I think there’s an argument they should have just gone for it, but they took the extra point for granted with a shaky kicker, and sure as shit, he failed them by missing it wide left.
I guess we can scratch off Daniels from the future LOAT list too. But then a short reprieve when the Cowboys got silly on the onside kick and returned it for a 43-yard touchdown instead of going down to end the game.
Why do you go down? To avoid what happened as Daniels completed a 6-yard pass to Ertz, then set himself up for a 2nd Hail Mary attempt this season. But this one was farther away from the end zone with 58 yards from the line of scrimmage, and Daniels didn’t step into it with quite as much room and power as he had against the Bears. The pass was shorter this time and it was ultimately intercepted to finally end this silly game at 34-26.
Pretty excruciating way to lose a historic game, but the Commanders are going to have to start games better, and I’m not sure what the fix is with the running game. Brian Robinson Jr. left early with an injury and Daniels ended up leading the team with 74 rushing yards. They need to find him a bit more help there.
Titans at Texans: Houston Really Does Have a Problem
How flawed is Houston right now? I’m using a clean f-word too for that sentence. Will Anderson Jr. was back in action and helped a pass rush to 8 sacks of Will Levis, who also threw a pick-six to fall behind late in the third quarter. The Titans even muffed a punt in the fourth quarter to gift the Texans 3 more points, Nico Collins had 95 yards and a touchdown, and the Texans still lost this game 32-27 at home.
I wish I could say this division game made no god damn sense, but the fact is it did. Painfully (Houston was my preseason pick to challenge Kansas City’s three-peat), it made sense.
Houston is the first team to blow 4 fourth-quarter leads this season. They have created a very unique defense where the pass rush is great at turning pressures into sacks, and sometimes they force a lot of incompletions too. Though, I’m starting to think playing Anthony Richardson twice and one major off-day from Josh Allen (9-for-30) heavily contributed to those completion rate numbers.
But if your quarterback can survive the pass rush of Houston, that secondary can’t hold up against wide receivers to save their lives. That’s how Will Levis was able to complete 18-of-24 passes for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sure, he took 8 sacks and threw a pick-six to Jimmie Ward, but he still hung in there and made enough big plays, including a 70-yard touchdown pass that put the Titans ahead in the fourth quarter, 30-27.
Next, we have to believe that Tennessee may be a legitimately good defense that is hard to move the ball against as they were very stingy with yards this year. But their scoring numbers aren’t so hot because of the bad field position they’ve been done in by with turnovers (Levis!) and the special teams. That Detroit game especially killed their stats.
But in this game, they held Joe Mixon to 22 yards on 14 carries. Totally shut him down, and the Texans have been running it so well this year. That put more pressure on C.J. Stroud, and my preseason MVP pick has regressed in his sophomore season. He took 4 sacks, threw a couple of picks, and struggled with this defense.
However, he didn’t screw up on the crucial drive of a 30-27 game. In fact, Collins should have had another touchdown to take the lead, but much like Monday night against Dallas, it was called back for an illegal shift. Then a holding penalty killed the drive, but kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn should have been able to tie the game with a 28-yard field goal with 1:56 left, right?
Wrong. He was wide left, much like how he missed a 27-yard field goal against the Jets when the Texans trailed 14-10 on Halloween. It’s one thing for Fairbairn to miss a 58-yard field goal against Detroit, but this was a 27-yard field goal and it wasn’t blocked. Make the damn kick. I’m not going to act like Fairbairn has always been a choker, and he did make a 54-yard field goal in this quarter, but I do have articles dating back to his 2017 season where I said he was unproven and not reliable.
The only good news is the Titans had a bad drive after the missed kick, so Stroud got it back with 1:29 and one timeout left. The bad news is he was at his own 8, but it was still doable. However, he took a sack back to the 1-yard line, then it was a safety after Harold Landry sacked him in the end zone on 3rd-and-17 as he tried to make a play. That made it 32-27 and effectively game over after the onside free kick wasn’t recovered by Houston.
Just a brutal loss for Houston, which had a shot to start stacking wins. This is already the third time in Stroud’s career that his kicker missed a clutch field goal in a loss, and again, that’s not counting the 27-yard miss in the Jets game since they were down 14-10 at the time. Just not in his future to beat the LOAT, I guess.
But he needs to pick up his play. So does this defense under DeMeco Ryans, because they are frighteningly easy to hit big plays against. It’s been a problem all season.
One of many problems in Houston right now. They’re just lucky they play in the AFC South, but we’ve seen bigger collapses before from this division.
49ers at Packers: Brock Purdy Probably Worth a Few More Points Than Credited For
You can do a pretty good job finding the dud of the week in the NFC by finding which game Tom Brady is calling for FOX. The NFL clearly had high hopes for this one as the centerpiece of the late-afternoon slate, but the injuries for the 49ers are just not complying as they played this game without their top quarterback (Brock Purdy), edge rusher (Nick Bosa), and offensive lineman (Trent Williams). That’s to say nothing of not having their best wideout (Brandon Aiyuk) and defensive tackle (Javon Hargrave; out since Week 3) either.
It’s just looking like 2020 all over again for the 49ers where injuries destroy them. They had some chances to make this a game, and it certainly wasn’t all backup Brandon Allen’s fault, but it’s not like they lost 38-10 because of some huge quarterback disparity. Jordan Love only threw for 163 yards in this game. Yes, Christian Watson dropped a wide-open touchdown again, but even with that, the 49ers were missing tackles left and right on Josh Jacobs, who had 106 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground.
Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey is allergic to the end zone this year and he finished with just 31 yards on 11 carries. What ever happened to building the offense around the run and CMC? Oh, right. I guess they’ll blame that on not having Williams.
It was just a really poor performance on both sides of the ball for the 49ers, and if they can’t get those three key players back for Buffalo next week, don’t be surprised if the scoreboard looks like déjà vu on Sunday Night Football.
Cardinals at Seahawks: Mike Macdonald’s Defense Is Good Again?
I liked a low-scoring game, but Christ, 16-6? We’re back to late September when the Seahawks were 3-0, first place in the NFC West, and the question was is Mike Macdonald a legitimate Coach of the Year if he’s fixed this defense into playoff form, or has it just been the offensive schedule? Well, the losses started piling up against better opponents (Giants withstanding), and we were turned off by this defense, which suffered some injuries.
But after holding down the 49ers in San Francisco last week and owning the Cardinals, who had a bye, to just 6 points in this pivotal game, you have to say the defense is shaping into form again.
But the defining feature of these NFC West games have been blowing double-digit leads in the fourth quarter, and I swear it was going to happen again when Geno Smith threw an abysmal interception with a chance to add to his 13-3 lead to start the fourth. Keep in mind it was a third down too, so it’s not like he had to force it with a short field goal in his back pocket.
The Seahawks were only up 13-3 because of a horrific pick-six thrown by Kyler Murray on a fourth down in the third quarter. Again, just a lot of bad picks in the late-afternoon slate Sunday.
In a 13-6 game, it looked like another inaccurate throw by Geno was going to immediately lead to another pick and good field position, but it thankfully hit the ground. He shook that off by delivering his best drive of the game where he converted twice on third down. It led to a 50-yard field goal to make it 16-6 with just 1:56 left as the drive consumed 8:12. The rest of the NFC West – here’s looking at you, McVay and Shanahan – could learn from a drive like that by a team with a one-score lead.
That put the Cardinals into scramble mode, but the best they could do was a 47-yard field goal attempt with 15 seconds left. It was missed, so that was the game at 16-6.
It’s still a hard division to figure out as it may simply not have a good team this year, and the winner is just going to struggle at home in a wild card game against an NFC North runner-up like Green Bay or Minnesota.
But for now, Seattle is back on top and it was the defense that led the way this day.
Vikings at Bears: The Unexpected Passing Duel and One of the Best Failed Rally Attempts in History
I think it’s the rare game where both teams should feel pretty good about how they did with it ending 30-27 in overtime. It’s only the third game this season where both starting quarterbacks passed for over 300 yards.
Sam Darnold showed he can get through a road game without turning the ball over once, and still leading the team to 30 points despite Justin Jefferson having 2 catches for 27 yards. It was a huge day for Jordan Addison (162 yards) and T.J. Hockenson (114 yards).
Caleb Williams showed a lot of the playmaking ability that led to him being the No. 1 pick in the draft. The ball bounced his way a few times late, but he still made the plays to get two quick scoring drives to force overtime, and kicker Cairo Santos redeemed himself for last week’s block with a 48-yard field goal to go to overtime.
That late-game scenario was wild. I wanted to tweet about it but I was enjoying an early dinner during these frantic moments with the 1:00 PM games ending. I was going to say you could definitely argue the Vikings should go for a 4th-and-1 at the Chicago 7 at the 2:00 warning in a 24-16 game. If you get it, the game is over as Chicago was out of timeouts, and it was just 1 yard. If you don’t get it, you’re still up 8, ultimate cushion, and you have a long field to defend. Pretty envious situation.
But I was also going to add that if you can’t make a 26-yard field goal and defend an 11-point lead in 1:56, then maybe you don’t deserve to win. Well, I was wrong on that part, because the Vikings did botch the situation and still won the game.
They made the field goal to make it 27-16, but a long kick return put Williams at the Minnesota 40, a huge boost. They took their time to get the touchdown, but I like that more than the teams rushing out the field goal unit as we’ve seen too many times this year. I’d rather go for the touchdown, recover the onside kick, then complete one big pass to set up a FG, and that’s exactly what Chicago pulled off here.
Keenan Allen caught the 1-yard touchdown, D.J. Moore caught the 2-point conversion, and the Bears managed the hardest part of recovering an onside kick with 21 seconds left. One completion to Moore for 27 yards, a spike, and there was Sanots tying the game up from 48 yards.
That’s 11 points manufactured in the last 1:56, an incredible feat that I believe only two other teams have pulled off in a win since 2001, including the Bears in a game against Cleveland in 2001. The other such win was Joe Flacco leading the Jets back against Cleveland in 2022.
But as much as I want to say head coach Matt Eberflus did something incredibly stupid in overtime to lose another close game, this one was really on the rookie quarterback living (and in this case) dying by the sword. On the second play of overtime after taking the ball first, Williams scrambled for an eternity before taking an avoidable sack that lost 12 yards. Throw in a delay of game after that shock and it was 3rd-and-26, leading to a three-and-out. He has to be better than that, but at the same time, I get it. He was trying to make a play as he did several times in the game. But he really screwed that drive up.
While Darnold immediately took a sack on the other end to start his drive in a second-and-17 hole, he got the offense out of it with Hockenson and Addison gaining 20 yards on two completions. Jefferson made a 20-yard catch to avoid arguably the least effective game of his career, and then Hockenson delivered the kill shot with a 29-yard catch to the 9. Romo made the 29-yard field goal to win 30-27, and these days, you can’t take any kick for granted, so good on him for not Blair Walshing things.
Maybe it’s not the kind of win that will endear the Vikings (9-2) to skeptics, but I think it was a good, gut-check win on the road. The kind of game you hope that J.J McCarthy can handle in the future, because Williams is going to give the Vikings some problems and scares if this game is any sign of the future. He just has to work on getting better at knowing how to get rid of the ball and when to take his chances. But he’s a rookie and he should improve on that.
Eagles at Rams: Trench Warfare
These are two recent Super Bowl teams in the NFC who got there in large part because of the talent they built in the trenches on both sides of the ball. But the Eagles have restocked well in that regard while the Rams are still lacking on both sides, especially for protecting Matthew Stafford and replacing a legend like Aaron Donald on defense.
It was never more evident than on Sunday night when Stafford had little time to hold the ball and had to deliver in a hurry to Kupp and Nacua, who made plays but not nearly enough to keep up with the Eagles. Even without DeVonta Smith, the Eagles still have plenty of speed and weaponry to drop 37 points, and that starts with huge lanes through blocking for Saquon Barkley to speed through.
The first half was competitive with the Eagles only leading 13-7, but Barkley changed that in a hurry with a 70-yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage in the third quarter. He added a 72-yard run with 2:44 left when the game was already in hand at 30-14, but that helped push him to 255 rushing yards to go along with 47 receiving yards for a grand total of 302 scrimmage yards.
That will put him in the MVP conversation for sure, and it looks like his odds have already shot up from +6500 at FanDuel as of Friday to +650 now. Can have that conversation about whether he deserves it another time. The Eagles-Ravens game next week should be huge for awards this season.
Lions at Colts: Workman Like Win for the Lions
The Lions aren’t going to wow you with the numbers this week, but they got the job done in a 24-6 road win in Indy. Hard to argue with holding the ball for 37 minutes, going 9-of-15 on third down, no turnovers, and holding Anthony Richardson to 11-of-28 passing. Well, maybe he held himself to those numbers again as consistent offense has been an issue all season, but the Colts never strung together enough plays to put any of their nine drives in the end zone.
Punting four straight times out of the half had to sting, because despite the decent numbers I just posted for Detroit, you have to accept that as a solid day by your defense against an offense this potent. They did sack Jared Goff three times, they didn’t give up a run longer than 17 yards or a pass longer than 27 yards. You have to manage more than two field goals at home. Simple as that.
Patriots at Dolphins: Tua’s Whipping Boys
It still bugs me that Tua Tagovailoa is the quarterback who gets to start his career 7-0 against the Patriots, because he would have struggled like hell to do this against New England in their heyday. But he had a huge game here with over 300 yards and 4 touchdown passes as Jerod Mayo’s defense just can’t cover receivers well this year.
It was 31-0 before the Patriots finally scored a touchdown on a 4th-and-15 miracle from Drake Maye. Throw in a defensive touchdown after a backup running back fumbled, and it was only mildly interesting as a 31-15 game with 10:10 left. But Maye was intercepted the next time he had the ball, leading to a 34-15 final.
The Dolphins (5-6) are playing better than a lot of teams right now, but we’ll see if they can steal one in Green Bay this Thursday night to maybe give themselves a legitimate shot at running the table and getting in the tournament. That has to be their toughest test yet with the way the 49ers and Texans have fallen off.
Broncos at Raiders: The Sweep Is Complete
The Broncos went from an 8-game losing streak to the Raiders in the 2020s to a sweep this season after taking care of business on the road in a 29-19 win to improve to 7-5. The turning point was a horrible interception by Gardner Minshew in the third quarter while the Raiders led 13-9. That set up an 18-yard field for Bo Nix to exploit, and the Broncos never trailed the rest of the way.
Minshew broke his collarbone, a season-ending injury, and he was replaced by Desmond Ridder, who coughed up the ball deep in his own end with 2:21 left, setting up the Broncos for another short-field score on a field goal to make it 29-19. They even saved the cover (Broncos -5.5) by sacking Ridder from the 1-yard line on the final snap.
I’d say I don’t understand why the Raiders didn’t immediately call their last timeout and kick a short field goal on a 4th-and-1 before trying the onside kick, but this is Antonio Pierce’s team. Why would you expect competency?
Buccaneers at Giants: Can We Send the Giants and Jets to the UFL?
MetLife Stadium is where competitive, interesting football goes to die. I’m over the Jets and Giants – their existence, I mean. Daniel Jones is gone, and in the first game without him, the Giants fell behind 30-0 and were embarrassed by Baker Mayfield and company.
Tommy DeVito played worse than he did as a rookie, but at this point, why even try to win a game? Just tank, get a top pick, and fire the head coach while you’re at it. Nothing about this is working. Might as well find the next coach and quarterback who might be able to get a single target to Malik Nabers before halftime.
Next week: It’s Thanksgiving and the Dolphins-Packers game looks a lot better than it did a month ago, but you should know I’m backing the home team with a winning record, Mike McDaniel’s kryptonite. The Chiefs haven’t lost a home game since Christmas against the Raiders, so they better be ready for Desmond Ridder, Daniel Jones, or whatever the hell the Raiders start at quarterback on Black Friday. As for Sunday, got some interesting ones with Chargers-Falcons, Steelers-Bengals, and Eagles-Ravens at 4:25. The 49ers desperately need Brock Purdy to start SNF in Buffalo or that’s going to be a dud. Browns-Broncos is semi-interesting on MNF, concluding one long week of football.
I feel some deja vu as it’s another weekend, I’m writing these predictions late at night, and my nose has been running since Thursday night. I went through the same thing for months last year where I often felt sick around the weekends and seemingly always tried to rush through these predictions.
So, I’m doing it again here, but I did just drop a 4 AM rant on Twitter (fvck off, Elon) about YAC, the Chiefs, and NextGenStats’ YAC Over Expected (YACOE) stat. Figured I did the data the other day and it didn’t share it anywhere, so I might as well get it out there before Sunday’s games.
Anyways, not a lot of good games this weekend, so it’s actually Monday night, the Ravens-Chargers Harbaugh Bowl, that I’m looking forward to the most here.
Taking Steelers -3.5 was one of my dumbest picks of the year as I warned about this being a typical “Steelers play down to the competition and probably lose” games under Tomlin, who coached one of his worst games ever. I should have at least said Browns +3.5 since you knew even if the Steelers won, it’d be by a FG at best. But they blew it. Baltimore rejoices.
Vikings-Bears: Nothing would surprise me but I’m just going to be content with the Vikings being better on both sides of the ball. And of course I think Eberflus is one of the worst coaches in NFL history in close games.
Bucs-Giants: Again, I was on the Tommy DeVito bandwagon for showing up Daniel Jones this week in his first start against a TB defense that gives up a lot of yards. But I’m cooling off that once I read that Malik Nabers missed Friday’s practice with a groin injury. That’s not good news for this passing game.
Patriots-Dolphins: I think Tua Tagovailoa will go to 7-0 against the Patriots, but I also think Drake Maye can keep it close enough for a cover against that defense.
Titans-Texans: Another division game, I just think the Texans can start rolling offensively with Collins and Mixon together, and I like the defense to sack Will Levis 5+ times and force some turnovers too.
Cowboys-Commanders: Yep, division games can be tricky, but I just think the Cowboys are mailing it in, Cooper Rush is trash, and Jayden Daniels will look sharper with a few extra days to rest since TNF last week. They’ve blown out several teams already this year too.
Chiefs-Panthers: The Chiefs haven’t really blown anyone out since Chicago last year, the Taylor Swift debut game. Sure, it should happen in Carolina, but with the way Chuba is running it, the way the Chiefs have played some spotty defense the last month, and the way the offense is always good for a mistake to deny itself points — throw in the backdoor cover too — and I’m still going with the classic Chiefs win but don’t cover.
Lions-Colts: I see potential for a 30-20 game where Anthony Richardson makes plays but just can’t keep up with that Detroit machine in the end.
Broncos-Raiders: Okay, that’s 7 division games this week. The Raiders were unbeatable for the Broncos in 2020-23, but I think Denver pulls off the sweep here. It was 34-18 last time and Bo Nix is playing with more confidence now.
49ers-Packers: I was so tempted to take SF +5.5, but it’s not just Brock Purdy being replaced by Brandon Allen. Nick Bosa is banged up and out too. I think even Trent Williams has something going on this week, so it truly is an injury-ravaged season for the 49ers at 5-5, and a game like this could squash them for the wild card, leaving the NFC West title as their only playoff path. Bad timing for a Purdy injury. Of course, a Jordan Love pick parade can turn this one in SF’s favor, but I think he protects the ball and makes up for the playoff loss the best he can with a win here.
Cardinals-Seahawks: Could actually turn out to be the best game or at least the best 4Q on Sunday. Late slate anyway. I’m going to take Seattle at home to edge them out with perhaps another GWD by Geno. That’s how these games have gone in the NFC West this year. Someone makes a 4QC. But both are capable and I’m not surprised it’s the smallest spread of the week.
Eagles-Rams: Saw some splits that made me want to take the Rams, but I just think the Eagles have too many weapons for this bland defense to stop, and the Eagles have the secondary this year to deal with Nacua and Kupp better. Even last year they shut them out after halftime with that bad Philly defense.
Ravens-Chargers: Read my Week 12 picks for a parlay and game script for this one. I think the Ravens make up for last week and get a win in a 23-20 or 27-24 type of game, and I think a little Chargering returns to completion this time on the other side after nearly giving it up to the Bengals last week. But it should be a good one.
The holiday games left a lot to be desired for this NFL season, but Week 12 managed to follow it with a game of the year candidate between the Bills and Eagles. It was the only game all week with a fourth-quarter lead change, and there were multiple lead changes at that.
The only other game-winning drive in Week 12 went to the Giants after another low point for Bill Belichick’s 2-win Patriots. Week 12 has 8 games with a comeback opportunity so far, which is a low number given 15 games have been played. We are almost at the point where the bye weeks are over and everyone’s played an equal number of games.
I’m only going to cover Sunday’s 11 games below as I think Thanksgiving was straightforward. The only surprise was that Detroit is suddenly looking vulnerable and Green Bay might be figuring things out with Jordan Love. The Lions have rarely looked good on defense since the blowout loss to the Ravens, and the offense is in a turnover funk right now with Jared Goff (3 picks, 3 fumbles lost over the last two games). We’ll see if Minnesota can sweep Chicago on Monday night to keep the pressure on the Lions for the NFC North since they still have to meet twice this year.
Finally, a game that lived up to and exceeded the hype. If you want to see points and drama in an NFL game this year, you have to focus on the big matchups in the afternoon as the island games have been awful all year. We can only be so lucky that 49ers-Eagles turns out this good next Sunday afternoon.
But an easy way to trigger all the PTSD in a Buffalo fan is to tell them their season is going to end on the wrong side of a clutch field goal kick, a go-ahead Gabe Davis TD called by Nantz and Romo that doesn’t hold up after the 2-minute warning, and an overtime game where Josh Allen doesn’t have the ball last. I think we covered about everything except the Music City Miracle, but maybe the Eagles are saving their kickoff return dark voodoo for next week.
This is going to fall on deaf ears for Buffalo fans who are tired of hearing this in the Sean McDermott era, which may not have many games left to it, but the Bills should have won this game.
Since 1991, teams with at least 29 points and 12 third-down conversions were 53-0. Make that 53-1 now.
Buffalo had 505 yards and was 13-of-22 on third down. Since 1991, teams with 13 conversions on third down are 29-4, and this Buffalo team has half the losses. They somehow lost 42-16 to the Titans in 2020 in a game where they were 13-of-17 on third down.
Just like the Chiefs on Monday night, the Bills led Philly 17-7 at halftime, but it should have been more than that. While Josh Allen looked outstanding in the rain, his kicker did not. Jalen Carter blocked Tyler Bass’ 34-yard field goal with 1:24 left in the half, and then he was wide right on a 48-yard field goal in the third quarter.
While Allen had over 200 yards at halftime despite the rain and his linemen’s penalties, Jalen Hurts was not handling the elements well. He was 4-of-11 for 33 yards, an interception, and a lost fumble at halftime.
But you know the Eagles can come back, and you know the Bills are either a blowout win or close loss team. It did not look like they would blow the Eagles out, though the yardage margins were so out of whack (276-99 at halftime) that they probably should have.
Even after Allen scrambled for a 16-yard touchdown, his second of the day on the ground, to take a 24-14 lead into the fourth quarter, it still didn’t feel safe for Buffalo. After the Eagles had their best drive for a touchdown, Allen was intercepted again, giving the Eagles the ball 24 yards away from the lead. Quick, someone fire Ken Dorsey again.
But after moving backwards on two plays, the Eagles faced a 3rd-and-15. McDermott’s defense could have stepped up and made a play, but instead they looked like Auburn’s defense against Alabama on Saturday as Zaccheaus caught a 29-yard touchdown in the end zone to give the Eagles a 28-24 lead.
In a game where he dropped back 60 times, Allen took his only sack on third down on the next drive, but the Eagles went three-and-out. Allen did not waste his second opportunity, and he threw a 7-yard touchdown to Gabe Davis with 1:52 left.
The Eagles drove to the Buffalo 34 before things got dicey. Jason Kelce had a pair of false starts, which you don’t expect. A designed run by Hurts only gained 3 yards when it looked like the hole was there. Then Hurts threw an incompletion on 3rd-and-17.
Jake Elliott was going to have to make a 59-yard field goal in rainy conditions to save this game for overtime. Things looked bleak, but I actually thought Buffalo screwed up by not letting A.J. Brown catch the short pass Jordan Poyer knocked away from him on 3rd & 17. It was only going to gain a few yards. Make them rush the field goal unit out there (no timeouts) for a hurried kick from 55+ yards. Instead, they had time to prepare, and McDermott even iced the kicker with a timeout. I didn’t like that move by Buffalo.
Sure enough, Elliott snuck the field goal through to tie the game at 31. It may only be a regular-season game, but that should go down as one of the best kicks in NFL history. Not going to top what Adam Vinatieri did in the Tuck Rule game and the snow to save a title run in the playoffs, but as far as regular-season kick goes, you’d have a hard time finding something better.
Buffalo had 20 seconds and 1 timeout left. This team more than anyone should know about what you can do in 20 (or 13) seconds. Why not let Allen throw a pass and try to get a drive going? Did they not trust the kicker that much, or did they not trust Allen to throw a pick? Either way, I hated the kneeldown too.
In overtime, the Bills took the ball first, which is understandable in a game like this. But you have to make that drive count, and Allen came up short again when his third-down pass was a miscommunication in the end zone with Davis. That could have been the winner. Buffalo settled for the field goal and Bass at least hit from 40 yards this time.
We got to see that rare bit of football where you have 4 downs and virtually no hurry with 5:52 to move down the field. Brown almost fumbled the game away, but I thought the officials got it right with a bang-bang play. Incomplete pass but that’s just another example of how thin the margins are for the Eagles all year.
After DeVonta Smith made a third-down conversion, the Bills were in trouble. Swift had a 16-yard run against a tired defense, and then a bad play call by McDermott left the middle of the field wide open for Hurts to race 12 yards into the end zone to end it. Eagles win 37-34.
Allen falls to 0-6 in overtime games in his career, and Buffalo can’t say there weren’t multiple chances to put this one away. The Bills go into their bye thinking they had a season-saving win, and instead it’s a heartbreaking loss to fall to 6-6. They still have to go to Kansas City next and host Dallas. The playoffs are looking like a longshot, and that’s now a league-high fourth blown lead in the fourth quarter for the Bills this year, who are 2-5 in close games.
On the other side of the coin, the 2023 Eagles are 9-1 in close games, the best record in the league. That’s literally every game of their season except for the 25-11 win in Tampa Bay. I don’t see how this is sustainable. The Vikings are the only other team to play 10 close games this year and they are 5-5 (11-0 last year and we know how that ended). Which teams have played the fewest close games? Cowboys (3), Lions (4), and 49ers (4), the other top teams in the conference this year.
Next week should be very interesting when the 49ers come to town. They are similar to Buffalo in the “win big, lose close” category, but they’re also a much better team.
Ravens at Chargers: Is Brandon Staley Finished?
It feels like the last few times I wrote about a coach being fired by the time I wake up on Monday, it’s happened. Frank Reich in Indy and Matt Rhule in Carolina come to mind. Sunday night might have been the final nail in the coffin for Brandon Staley.
The Chargers are 4-7 and the No. 13 seed in a competitive AFC despite having Justin Herbert at quarterback. But the Chargers are now 1-7 at game-winning drive opportunities this year, the most losses in the league.
This was another mistake-filled performance, and the reason I say Staley is going soon is this time it was the offense that failed the Chargers the most. The defense actually held a red-hot Baltimore team that had scored 31 points in 5 straight games to 13 points for 58 minutes. Lamar Jackson was only 18-of-32 for 177 yards against the No. 32 pass defense. The Ravens tried a lot of WR screens and just weren’t that impressive on offense.
But the Chargers turned the ball over 4 times, and it was their best players that let them down. Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler both lost fumbles in the second quarter. Herbert’s only interception was a Hail Mary that didn’t matter to end the half, but he was stripped in the red zone by Jadeveon Clowney in the fourth quarter when it was 13-3.
The Chargers are known for blowing leads, but Baltimore has been quite bad in this area the last few years. It looked like things were turning the Chargers’ way too as a touchdown to Gerald Everett made it 13-10, then Justin Tucker shocked everyone by missing a 44-yard field goal with 2:57 left. I fully thought Tucker would make it to give Baltimore a 16-10 lead, Herbert would answer with a touchdown, and Tucker would win it 19-17 on another field goal. But nope.
The Chargers had a real chance in a 13-10 game at their own 34. But Herbert was disappointing on a drive where Baltimore stepped up and played great defense. It is so hard to keep a team out of field goal range when it’s in this pass-heavy, 4-down mode, but they did it to Herbert here. A well-timed DB blitz on 4th-and-6 got to Herbert and he was flagged for intentional grounding.
Zay Flowers put it away with his second touchdown of the night – this time on a 37-yard touchdown run where he could have just slid down any time after the first down and the game would have ended. But that made it 20-10, and Herbert was unable to move more than 12 yards before another drive turned it over on downs.
The Baltimore defense was very impressive. The offense left something to be desired but you know that unit can be tough to play against with their uniquely skilled quarterback.
But it was a game there for the taking, and the Chargers did not step up again. I’m not sure how many more weeks they let this happen before a change is made.
Jaguars at Texans: Houston Stumbles in Biggest Game in Four Seasons
The Texans were my upset pick this week, but in the back of my mind I knew it was a risky pick. The Texans are the “too much too soon” team in this matchup with their rookie coach and quarterback. They gave Carolina their only win of the season, then followed it with a 3-game winning streak where they outscored the Bucs, Bengals, and Cardinals by a combined 10 points despite huge production from rookie C.J. Stroud.
The Jaguars are the “experienced team” even though they were just 3-7 going into their Baltimore game that turned things around one year ago to the date. But they have a Super Bowl-winning coach and more playoff experience on the roster.
But this game didn’t prove to be too big for the Texans at all. In fact, it was there for the taking, but they just kept coming up short:
The offense started with 3 straight punts thanks to a holding penalty and a ticky-tack illegal shift on Tank Dell that wiped out his 62-yard completion on a great throw from Stroud.
Backup kicker Matt Ammendola is a huge problem as he missed a 50-yard field goal with 20 seconds before halftime. The Jaguars then hit a 57-yard bomb to Christian Kirk at the 1-yard line with 1 second left, 1-of-4 completions the Jaguars hit for 42+ yards, then tried to run it in with Travis Etienne, but the Texans snuffed it out. Houston still trailed 13-7 at the half.
Despite Jacksonville’s numbers on takeaways, the only turnover in the game was an interception by Trevor Lawrence in the third quarter.
Leading 14-13, Houston corner Tavierre Thomas was flagged twice for defensive pass interference on third downs to help Jacksonville score a touchdown and 2-point conversion pass, which both went to Calvin Ridley. Jacksonville led the rest of the game.
In the end, it wasn’t turnovers or the moment being too big for this Houston team. It was a bad backup kicker and an ass kicking up front as Josh Allen got the best of Laremy Tunsil.
It looked like Stroud had another game-winning drive in the works in a 24-21 game, but a sack from Allen at the Jacksonville 37 set up a 2nd-and-19. After a short completion, Stroud faced 3rd-and-12. He extended the play for a very long time but eventually threw incomplete with 34 seconds left. That was a bummer as he might have considered scrambling to at least gain some yards for the kicker.
The Texans still felt a 58-yard field goal was a better choice than 4th-and-12, and maybe they were right about that. It’s a tough call. Ammendola kicked it straight this time, but it was too short, and it hit the crossbar before bouncing the wrong way for Houston. Game over. That’s why those few yards Stroud could have gained on a run would have been important.
Ammendola was with the Chiefs for a couple of games last year when Harrison Butker was injured, and if they had to stick with him the rest of the season, I’m not sure the Chiefs win the Super Bowl. He’s just not a good kicker and is an emergency backup for a reason. I’m not sure what the Texans can do there, but he’s going to be a problem if any other games come down to his leg.
For Jacksonville (8-3), a No. 1 seed is still possible with this big win that makes the division title likely. They won in the trenches and Lawrence made some big throws with Ridley delivering the way they envisioned when they made that move. I’m still not sold it’s a team you can count on in January, but this was a good win after the way things usually go when the Jags play Houston.
Chiefs at Raiders: The Second Half Slump Ends
I don’t know if the Chiefs are “back” on offense but trailing 14-0 and winning 31-17 is a very Kansas City thing. The start of this game was shocking as the Raiders moved the ball up and down the field on this top-ranked defense to take a 14-0 lead. It would have been 17-0 if Daniel Carlson didn’t pull a 30-yard field goal.
The Raiders had 221 yards of offense on 3 drives and rookie Aidan O’Connell was carving them up. Josh Jacobs, who has struggled all year behind this line, hit a 63-yard touchdown run.
But the Chiefs adjusted, and the Raiders finished with a field goal and 137 yards on their final 7 drives – an impressive turnaround for the defense.
Once Kansas City’s offense settled down, they scored 4 touchdowns and a field goal on their final 7 drives. With players like Jerick McKinnon and Kadarius Toney out, it felt like the Chiefs did a better job of getting the ball to their best players instead of trying to share the ball with anyone, including the bad targets. MVS only had one target on a catch that lost a yard. Justin Watson, who had 11 targets against the Eagles, only had one catch and it was a broken play touchdown after Robert Spillane dumped him on his ass in the end zone and no one bothered to pick him up.
Meanwhile, Rashee Rice had 8 catches for 107 yards and a touchdown in his best game of the season (despite 2 more drops). Travis Kelce was very good again with 6 catches for 91 yards. Isiah Pacheco handled some of the receiving with McKinnon out as he caught all 5 targets for 34 yards and scored 2 touchdowns. Mahomes efficiently passed for 298 yards on 27-of-34 passing.
But most importantly, the Chiefs ended their 3-game drought of not scoring after halftime. They scored a season-high 17 points after halftime in this game. It was only the second time all year where the Chiefs scored more than 10 points after halftime.
With the offense thriving and the Raiders struggling after their hot start, the Chiefs barely had to sweat the final quarter this week, winning comfortably for a change.
We’ll see the Chiefs next Sunday night in Green Bay in what could be a better challenge if Jordan Love is showing real improvement. But the Chiefs accomplished some good things in this game in showing they can still come back from 14-point deficits by getting hot on offense, and they can score after halftime too.
Steelers at Bengals: Shove It Up Your Arse, Matt Canada
What a fitting outcome. Immediately after firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers finally had their first 400-yard game on offense since the 2020 regular season. They had one in the playoffs that year against the Browns, but this ended a 45-game drought under Canada, and a 58-game streak that was the second longest regular-season drought without 400 yards by any offense in the last 30 years.
The very first play of the game was like one big “fuck you” to Matt Canada. The Steelers went play-action and Kenny Pickett threw deep down the middle of the field to tight end Pat Freiermuth for a 24-yard gain. Exactly the kind of things the Steelers never wanted to do under Canada despite how much sense it makes to do. Freiermuth would finish with 9 catches for 120 yards. Pickett passed for 278 yards, the 2nd-highest game of his career and easily his most in a win.
But to make it fitting for the brand, the Steelers only scored 16 points and had to sweat out the final quarter of a one-score game with Jake Browning in his first career start for the Bengals. This happened in a game where the Steelers outgained the Bengals 421-222 in yards, the first time all year Pittsburgh outgained its opponent. That’s the reminder that the offense still has some flaws that even Canada’s absence won’t fix.
While Pickett was dealing early, his accuracy was an issue later. But that may not have mattered if Diontae Johnson didn’t have one of the worst first quarters I’ve ever seen from a player. First he caught a screen, broke a tackle, but somehow ran backwards to lose 5 yards to kill the opening drive. Then he dropped a 15-yard touchdown that Mike Tomlin should have challenged as Johnson’s third foot was down and the play should have been a score. By not challenging, Tomlin watched Jaylen Warren cough up a fumble on a play where Johnson showed no effort at all:
Just a brutal start that cost the Steelers points, which is why they trailed 7-3 at halftime. Meanwhile, Browning finished his first start with 227 yards, 4 sacks, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. I’ve seen a lot of backup quarterbacks play over the years. Some were absolutely terrible, including Caleb Hanie, Craig Krenzel, Ryan Lindley, Curtis Painter, and Keith Null. Browning did not look that bad to me. He could even be serviceable if he gets some experience, because some of his mistakes like holding the ball too long are simply not having the reps under his belt. He did get lucky on a couple of tipped balls that still found their way to Ja’Marr Chase (4 catches for 81 yards), but all in all, Browning wasn’t a disaster.
But the Bengals’ season is over without Joe Burrow. It’s easy to see that much. Browning had his shot in a 13-7 game with just over 6:00 left, but T.J. Watt sacked him on third down for a three-and-out. The Steelers added a field goal, the Bengals matched it, but Pittsburgh recovered the onside kick and wisely ran with the ball for 4 seconds to get it to the two-minute warning. With the Bengals already out of timeouts, the game ended there.
As someone who lost several parlays with Steelers Over 19.5 points failing, the 16 points was definitely the most disappointing part of this game for Pittsburgh. But at least the offense made things happen, they used the tight end the way they should have been doing since 2021, and Pickett started the game really sharp.
But I’ll hold my breath that 400-yard games will become a frequent occurrence with this group going forward. Remember, Pickett’s only game in his career with 30 points scored was against the Bengals last year. Two of his 3 games with over 260 passing yards are against the Bengals now. This could be a Cincinnati thing, and the Bengals have been giving up a lot of passing volume for the last month and a half.
But with the upcoming schedule for the Steelers (7-4), they aren’t going to need 400 yards or even 21 points to win a lot of these games. Barring disaster, this team should be in the playoffs. But to be any sort of threat there, Pickett is going to have to continue to grow and play like he did to start this game.
And Diontae Johnson needs to pull his head out of his ass.
Buccaneers at Colts: Indy Continues to Score at Impressive Rate
If the Colts (6-5) make the playoffs, I could be convinced to vote Shane Steichen for Coach of the Year. He has achieved scoring consistency in a season where so few offenses are capable of doing so, and he’s doing it with Gardner Minshew as QB1.
He’s also making some brash calls that have paid off. Up 20-17 in the fourth quarter with 9:11 left, Steichen went for it on a 4th-and-1 at the Tampa 49. It was an aggressive deep pass on a play-fake too, and it was good for 30 yards. Three plays later, Jonathan Taylor was in the end zone for his second touchdown and the Colts used that drive to provide the winning margin.
Tampa Bay lost Baker Mayfield to an early injury on a quarterback sneak, which almost never happens, but he did return. He threw a pair of touchdowns to Mike Evans, but a couple of 3rd-down sacks killed Tampa Bay on its final drives. Mayfield was stripped near midfield with 1:29 left to end the game at 27-20.
The Buccaneers (4-7) are fading to No. 11 in the NFC with the loss. The Colts are the No. 7 seed and would be taking a trip to Kansas City in a wild card game if the playoffs were this weekend. Imagine if they can repeat their Mahomes magic (19-13 and 20-17) in a game like that in the playoffs. But with the way the AFC is, expect many different teams to occupy the No. 7 and No. 2 seeds over the next few weeks. Hell, the No. 1 seed changed hands 5 times since Monday night.
But good for the Colts staying relevant in what could have easily been a lost season. We know they weren’t drafting a quarterback in 2024 anyway.
Saints at Falcons: The NFC South Battle You Expected
In the post-Drew Brees and Matt Ryan era of this rivalry, you have to admit this was a fitting game for first place in the NFC South. A game where both teams had multiple turnovers and looked like they were trying to give the game away.
The Saints got Derek Carr so they’d have an edge in games like this, but they must have forgot that he’s never won a playoff game in his career. Sure enough, in this one he was late on a throw that became a 92-yard pick-six for Atlanta, then he had a hilarious fumble while running in the open field that the Saints were lucky to recover.
The Falcons got Bijan Robinson to take the pressure off Desmond Ridder in this offense. It hasn’t worked as great as expected this year, but it did deliver on Sunday in the most important game so far for Atlanta. While Ridder did his best to make no one believe in him after 2 interceptions to Tyrann Mathieu, he made the throw of the game under pressure for a 26-yard touchdown to Robinson to expand on Atlanta’s 14-12 lead in the fourth quarter:
Bijan Robinson with his second TD of the day for the Falcons against the Saints! pic.twitter.com/gdHDGkCaRA
But of all the turnovers in the game, the biggest one may have been the one that preceded that second Robinson touchdown. The Saints were at midfield after Mathieu’s second pick, and they got into the red zone quickly. It was a struggle there all day as the offense kept settling for field goals, but Taysom Hill took off on a run that would have made it first-and-goal. He fumbled, and the Falcons recovered, setting up that 95-yard drive that ended with the Ridder to Robinson connection.
All the Saints could do from there was settle for another 39-yard field goal, which the Falcons matched to make it 24-15 with 1:47 left. Even in quasi-garbage time, Carr couldn’t get his offense in the end zone. Blake Grupe, one of the most anti-clutch kickers around right now, missed a 54-yard field goal with 30 seconds left to end this one. Also, how do you come up short on a 54-yard field goal indoors?
The Falcons (5-6) take a slight lead over the Saints (5-6) for the NFC South. But we could see another year where a team wins this division with a losing record. However, the schedule is still easy for both. This division is the sacrificial lamb to the NFC East runner-up on wild card weekend.
Browns at Broncos: Another Key Tiebreaker for Denver
Sean Payton’s rope-a-dope following a 1-5 start continues after another win over an AFC wild card contender that will give Denver a key tiebreaker for the playoffs. The Broncos (6-5) already have such a win over Buffalo that could mean a lot come January.
I was sure to not call it impressive, because I’m still not that impressed with this Denver team. Russell Wilson didn’t do anything to distance himself from the Taysom Hill comparisons after he threw for 134 yards, got an amazing touchdown catch from Adam Trautman, and he was in love with the run on this day as he carried the ball 11 times for 34 yards and a touchdown.
The Browns were stuck with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who left the game spitting out blood after a tough hit. That put P.J. Walker in the game, though I’m a bit surprised Walker wasn’t the starter since he is more experienced and a veteran. You kind of wish Cleveland trusted him more, because the first play of the fourth quarter with Cleveland trailing 17-12 was a disaster. The Browns tried a little trickery with Elijah Moore doing a reverse to Pierre Strong, and it resulted in a huge fumble.
The Broncos had another short field (20 yards) and that was when Trautman made his incredible touchdown grab to make it 24-12. The Browns are not built to come back from deficits like that, so it was just a matter of more turnovers and a sack in the end zone for a safety to get to the 29-12 final.
The Browns lost 3 fumbles and that does not include the drive-ending safety, so Denver’s defense is continuing this takeaway rampage to fuel the offense. They can add another huge tiebreaker win next week if they win in Houston.
Cleveland (7-4) could start to unravel after a loss like this, but the Browns still have games against Chicago, Jets, and Bengals, so 10 wins is possible. Is it enough this year? We’ll see. The AFC is super tight right now, so these little head-to-head losses add up.
The wins are just adding up for Denver right now but don’t start making playoff plans just yet.
Patriots at Giants: Even the Kicker Sucks Ass for New England These Days
The 2023 Patriots are the first team since the 2000 Steelers to play in back-to-back games where they neither scored nor allowed more than 10 points. A 10-6 loss to the Colts in Germany was followed Sunday by a 10-7 road loss to the Giants. The last team to go 0-2 in back-to-back games when not allowing or scoring more than 10 points is the 1993 Patriots, coached by Bill Belichick’s mentor Bill Parcells. How nice.
This latest loss was comedy for the Patriots, who are now 2-9. Tommy DeVito had a 7.4 QBR for the Giants after taking another 6 sacks, but he still won the game and led his first game-winning field goal drive to break a 7-7 tie that seemed like it may not be broken by either offense.
How do you lose to a 7.4 QBR, the worst of any winning quarterback this year? Well, Mac Jones had a 7.2 QBR after another pair of interceptions, so he was benched at halftime for Bailey Zappe.
While Zappe immediately led a 60-yard touchdown drive to start the third quarter, it was the final score for New England. He didn’t throw a fake spike pick this time, but Zappe was intercepted in the fourth quarter, and that led to an 8-yard game-winning field goal drive for DeVito. Yes, 8 yards.
Zappe had a chance from the 50 with 3:15 left in a 10-7 game, a dream scenario for a quarterback. The Patriots played for overtime, but rookie kicker Chad Ryland was shockingly wide left from 35 yards away with 3 seconds left. Game over. The Patriots spent a 4th-round pick on this kicker and he still sucks.
Belichick has only lost 6 games in his career with a missed clutch field goal. But this was the first time on a drive with Bailey Zappe, which matches the one time it’s happened with Mac Jones (2021 Buccaneers), which matches the one time it happened in two decades with Tom Brady (2012 Cardinals).
Everything has gotten worse in New England.
Rams at Cardinals: McVay’s Whipping Boys
The Rams completed another sweep of the Cardinals with a 37-14 win. I really did not expect to see Matthew Stafford throw 4 touchdown passes to Kyren Williams and Tyler Higbee (he had none going in), but that happened. It was also another quiet game for Cooper Kupp (3 catches for 18 yards) as he continues to deal with injury.
I don’t think Kyler Murray is making it that difficult on management to move on with a different quarterback in 2024. It’s just that Chicago may have the firepower in the draft to make sure they get the top prize, which I presume is still Caleb Williams.
Panthers at Titans: Turkey Coma Is Preferable
Once you get past Thanksgiving, the interest in games like this really drops. You had two rookie quarterbacks struggle to move the ball all day. Tennessee got a key 15-yard touchdown drive before halftime after a strip-sack of Bryce Young. After that it was just the Titans in survival mode with a 17-10 lead.
Carolina had four chances to tie it and never came close. Your typical Carolina issues with Young taking sacks and Miles Sanders somehow losing several yards on multiple runs. Just a bad line and the Titans took advantage. On 4th-and-6, the Panthers really thought a WR screen was going to save the day, but D.J. Chark, who isn’t even the best option for that play, gained no yards with 1:55 left and it was game over.
Next week: It’s really all about 49ers-Eagles in Week 13. You knew before the season this was the NFC Game of the Year, and hopefully it will live up to the hype. That means no quarterback injury on the first drive this time. And hopefully it doesn’t get decided by the kickers because we know the 49ers are screwed there.
Thanks to the NFL shilling for Amazon with a Black Friday game, we’ve already had a 4-game start to Week 12. They were all division games, and they all kind of sucked. The only time any of the games got within one score in the 4th quarter was after Detroit went for a 2-point conversion with 41 seconds left in their 29-22 loss to give the underdogs one big win so far.
But oddly enough, every game so far this week had a spread of 7 or higher. Of the 12 games left this week, Chiefs at Raiders (+10) is the only one with a spread larger than 3.5. There are four games with a spread of 1.5, so expect things to be much tighter this weekend. Hopefully better too as I am looking forward to Bills-Eagles. It’s not an island game so the offenses might actually score several touchdowns.
This Week’s Articles
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 12 – I have a Matt Canada is fired parlay, some unders I like, a game script for Texans-Jags, and my longshot is in the Bills-Eagles game
My early results were all over the map, but I did at least pick the 49ers and Dolphins to crush the Seahawks and Jets. I could have did without that last Raheem Mostert TD though. Cost me a +86000 win that would have probably been my best longshot win ever.
I’m not sure what to do with some of these games. NE-NYG? Under. TB-IND? Over. ATL-NO? Flip a coin or just avoid it. One of the close games I do like a clear pick in is CLE-DEN. I think DTR struggles more against Denver’s secondary and the Broncos pull that one out to continue this playoff push. No, I still don’t believe they’re a good team, but these turnovers better not dry up against a turnover-prone Cleveland offense that is missing its QB1 and RB1.
If you read my links above, I’m all over the Steelers having their best offensive game in a while in Cincy. That doesn’t mean great numbers for other QBs, but for Kenny Pickett, throwing for 200 yards, a TD (hell maybe 2), and leading the Steelers to 20+ is big time for him. I wouldn’t have picked this if they didn’t fire Matt Canada this week, so we’ll see what happens there. It just seems too fitting that Cincy is literally the only team Pickett has scored 30 against, and his 265 yards last year were his 2nd most in a game. Granted, no Joe Burrow, Jake Browning is a wild card, and it could be another 13-10 AFC North game for that reason. But I think it’s more of an offensive game than expected and like the overs.
CAR-TEN? Damned if I know, but the Panthers are 1-7-2 ATS this year. They just haven’t played well at all under Frank Reich.
I have the Texans as my upset pick, but I’m just hoping the game is watchable since most Jacksonville games aren’t. Let’s hope for both teams to score 20+ and the game to be played within a one-score window the whole time.
LAR-ARI? I’ll pass. Maybe James Conner returns to the end zone this week. But largely avoiding that one.
KC-LV: My favorite research bit this week was finding out the Chiefs are No. 1 out of 1,577 teams since 1970 in the largest split between 1st half and 2nd half scoring through 10 games.
#NFL Largest Differential in First Half vs. Second Half Scoring, Games 1-10, Since 1970
No points after halftime in 3 straight games for the Chiefs, the first time that’s happened in franchise history. I think the scoreless drought ends this week, but I still love the under 13.5 2H points for KC in that game. The Raiders held Miami to 6 points in Miami after halftime last week. Maybe Maxx Crosby has a monster game after wearing out that “You woke up the wrong motherfucker!” clip from Mahomes from the Quarterback show. But I do think the Chiefs get the win. It just won’t be pretty.
BUF-PHI: Love the timing of this game. Get to see if the Bills are still contenders and ready for a run, or if the Eagles win another one over a so-called contender this year. We know the Bills usually have 2 modes: close loss or blowout win, so I’m not feeling their chances to pull it off this week. Probably a game that comes down to turnovers. But I hope it’s a good one.
BAL-LAC: Potential is definitely there for a great game with the way these teams blow leads, but it also could be a Baltimore rout. But I’m thinking it ends up being one of the best island games all year (low bar).
CHI-MIN: Isn’t this why we started using flex scheduling on Monday night? Eh, might play a Dobbs TD again because he’s getting automatic with that, and his highlight reel on them is way more interesting than Jalen Hurts’ reel.
I’ll share my spreadsheet of picks on Twitter tomorrow night as I mentioned last week. I’ve been on a hot streak this week with parlays, already hitting +27000, +22000, +12800, +10000 (a few times), +5400, +4100, +3000, etc.
For as good as the Thanksgiving slate was, the Sunday schedule in Week 12 was never going to be strong enough to top it. But who could have imagined the Buccaneers (5-6), Rams (3-8), and Packers (4-8) would fall so far in the NFC?
Instead of getting a rematch of 54-51, or the great shootout Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford had in 2019, we got the Chiefs (hopefully) burning bad plays in the red zone as they toyed with the Bryce Perkins-led Rams.
If Jacoby Brissett never starts another game in Cleveland, good on him for ending it with a big comeback and overtime win against Tampa Bay, a team that is clearly not “back.”
Did we see the end of the Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay on Sunday night? Injuries and a 4-8 record make it hard to justify putting him on the field again this season.
Since the 1970 merger, just 21.0% of NFL teams with 12+ wins have declined to a losing record the following season.
Now, the terrible NFC South may still save Tampa’s ass from a losing record this year, but if not, we’ll see history made as three 12-win teams in one conference will have declined to a losing record for the first time.
It would be only the third time it happened to three teams in the whole league in the same year.
1998 to 1999: Broncos (John Elway retired and Terrell Davis injured after four games), Falcons (Jamal Anderson injured after two games), and 49ers (Steve Young injured early).
2015 to 2016: Panthers, Bengals, and Cardinals – three teams who greatly overachieved in what became the peak of the Rivera/Newton, Lewis/Dalton, and Arians/Palmer eras.
So, there is something to watch for. As for Week 12, we had nine games with a comeback opportunity but three of them were on Thursday. I imagine Monday night (Steelers-Colts) will be a 10th, but we’ll see.
This is not the time for me to write the eulogy to Aaron Rodgers’ career, but there is a non-zero chance last night was the last time we see him play for Green Bay. When you start mixing a broken thumb with an oblique injury and a 4-8 record for a quarterback who turns 39 this Friday, you might be talking about the end of the road.
Rodgers left the game late in the third quarter in obvious pain and did not return. Jordan Love played well in his quarter of action, but it was too little too late after a wild start to this one in Philadelphia. Green Bay’s first five drives ended in three touchdowns and two interceptions.
But first, I’ll compliment the Eagles for scoring a season-high 40 points and showing some of that dynamic, explosive talent they’ll need if they are going to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl and win it all.
Jalen Hurts became the first quarterback ever to rush and pass for at least 125 yards in a half. He finished with 157 yards on the ground, so two of the best rushing quarterback performances ever have come against Rodgers’ defense in games where his Packers scored at least 30 and the opponent scored at least 40. You remember 2012 Colin Kaepernick in the playoffs, right?
That kind of fits a nice bow on the Rodgers’ era in Green Bay, even if Love was the one wrapping this game up after entering to a 37-23 deficit. Philadelphia finished with 363 rushing yards.
What more can you say right now? The Packers are 1-7 in their last eight games. They have not won a game in regulation since beating Tampa Bay, another team on the downslide, 14-12 in Week 3.
No matter if Rodgers returns or if the Love era starts next week, this team is going to go through a rough period. We are seeing it in New Orleans after Drew Brees and Sean Payton departed. We are seeing it in Pittsburgh without Ben Roethlisberger. We’ve seen it in Denver after Peyton Manning retired.
How long that rough period lasts is up to Matt LaFleur and getting this Love to Christian Watson connection going so that it could one day look something like Rodgers to Davante Adams did. Maybe it never will, but that’s just life in the NFL. All good things come to an end, and Green Bay fans were more fortunate than most to enjoy a Rodgers era right after Brett Favre took his last snap with the team in the 2007 season.
All things must pass.
Bengals at Titans: Take Away the Sacks and Turnovers, and Tennessee Still Loses
This game really floored me, because on the surface, Cincinnati’s 20-16 win was not unlike its 19-16 win in the playoffs last year. Except the two games really could not be more different, and I don’t just mean because neither Ja’Marr Chase (hip) nor A.J. Brown (foolish trade by Titans) were there for these offenses.
Cincinnati’s whole Super Bowl run was really a case study on mitigating sacks with interceptions. The Bengals took nine sacks in Tennessee, but they still won because Ryan Tannehill threw three costly interceptions.
But on Sunday, each quarterback took one sack, and there were zero turnovers in the game. Oh, Derrick Henry coughed up the ball on a 69-yard catch and run, but he was lucky that Treylon Burks was there for the recovery and that unique “other” offensive touchdown. What a way to score your first NFL touchdown.
But the stunning part is that this game was essentially the No. 1 run defense (Titans) against a bottom-ranked run defense missing its best back (Joe Mixon), and the Titans had King Henry. And yet, Samaje Perine outrushed Henry 58-38 in yards.
I never saw that coming. But the backs were big for the Bengals, especially in the receiving game as Perine usually is productive for this team on the road when they seek a big win. For 1.5 quarters, this was your typical matchup of a physical defense shutting down a one-dimensional passing offense. But one little throw to Perine that he took 32 yards changed everything in the second quarter, and it led to the Bengals’ first touchdown to tie the game at 10 before halftime.
That last half of the second quarter was a really pivotal sequence, because the Bengals got that touchdown, and the Titans botched a 35-yard field goal with their new kicker.
Points were hard to come by, but Joe Burrow got a great catch from Trenton Irwin to convert a third-and-12 with the game tied at 13 in the fourth quarter. One play later, Tee Higgins caught a 27-yard touchdown.
The Titans looked like they could answer, but a long drive stalled out and they settled for a 38-yard field goal with 6:07 left. A few more completions to Higgins and timely runs led the Bengals to another field goal, which was going to leave Tannehill about two minutes left for a game-tying touchdown opportunity.
But the Titans took a horrible penalty on the field goal for unnecessary roughness against the long snapper. It’s the right call by the rule, but it’s just such an unnecessary, foolish play by Tennessee. With the Titans out of timeouts and the automatic first down, the game was over. The long snapper took one win away from the Bengals in Week 1 against Pittsburgh, but it came through to seal one here.
Plenty of season left, but with both teams at 7-4, you can see a scenario where this is the No. 5/No. 4 or No. 6/No. 3 wild card matchup. That would not be a good thing for the Titans based on these last two matchups.
Ravens at Jaguars: The Streak Is Over
Thanks a lot, Ravens. Your historic ability to gain two-score leads and still lose the game has led to the end of one of my favorite streaks to point out.
The Jaguars had lost 41 games in a row when allowing more than 20 points, but that streak is no more after the 28-27 win that is the signature moment of Trevor Lawrence’s young career.
Time will tell if it’s the turning point for him, or if it’s just a case of getting bailed out against a team that has been blowing games like this throughout the season. But the Ravens were again culpable on multiple sides of the ball. It was the first time all season they did not lead by double digits, but they still led 19-10 in the fourth quarter. I also thought at the moment there was an argument for going for two to make it 20-10, but oh well.
The defense could have nipped things in the bud with a fourth-and-8 stop at 8:44, but they didn’t as Zay Jones caught a 27-yard pass. The special teams had a 6-yard kick return after Jacksonville’s touchdown cut it to 19-17, and then Gus Edwards coughed up the ball on the first snap from scrimmage. The Jaguars couldn’t get a first down but still took the lead on a field goal.
To his credit, Lamar Jackson made the big throw to DeSean Jackson for a 62-yard gain that set up a touchdown and two-point conversion for a 27-20 lead with 2:02 left. That should have been enough as 21 is the magic number to beat Jacksonville, but not on this Sunday.
Right after the two-minute warning, things easily could have ended after Calais Campbell strip-sacked Lawrence, but the offense was able to recover the ball. The Jags overcame a third-and-21 situation from that, another fourth down thanks to Marvin Jones, then another big play (29 yards) by Zay Jones to set up first-and-goal at the 10.
Lawrence went back to Marvin Jones in the end zone, and the ruling on the field was a touchdown. The review said call stands, not confirmed. Honestly, I did not see it as a touchdown. It looked like even if Jones’ shin got down in bounds, it happened simultaneously with his leg touching out of bounds, so it should have been incomplete with 14 seconds left to bring up second down. That was a huge gift.
The Jaguars decided to go for two, which isn’t that surprising under Doug Pederson. With such little time left and Jacksonville’s underdog, nothing to really play for status, I think it was a perfect call. Lawrence threw a great ball to Jones, and the Jaguars led 28-27.
Teams are now 14-of-29 when trying the go-ahead two-point conversion in the final 2:00 since 1994. Sunday was the first time we witnessed two successes in the same day.
But the short kickoff nearly backfired for Jacksonville as Lamar got the ball at his own 39 with 10 seconds left and two timeouts. We know Justin Tucker can hit from 66 yards with the help of a crossbar bounce, so the Ravens really just needed a solid 15-yard gain to give him a shot. I thought Jackson hesitated too long to get the ball to a slower tight end, who went for getting out of bounds instead of having the team use their timeout after he went down. It gained 12 yards, but something better could have been done there.
Still, Tucker would get a chance to further cement his GOAT status. He already has the record at 66, now he could hit from 67 yards and deliver another epic win. So often we see these really long attempts get blocked or they are nowhere even close. But Tucker was actually straight on with his kick. It just didn’t have enough to get over the crossbar and fell short. A few more yards would have done the trick for Baltimore.
But this Baltimore team just seems destined to keep coming up short.
Buccaneers at Browns: We’re Only Going to Score 17 Points?
I had a hard time picking this week’s upset special, because I couldn’t use any Thanksgiving game or Monday night’s Steelers-Colts game, and I was already doing a preview on Bengals-Titans. I sure as hell wasn’t picking the Saints, Rams, or Texans to beat the 49ers, Chiefs, or Dolphins.
I landed on Bucs-Browns, because I knew this Tampa team is still a fraud trying to make the playoffs solely because of the division it plays in, and the Browns are better than their record, and Jacoby Brissett would want to show out in his final start before Predator is back on the field next week.
In the end, it all worked out, but it sure didn’t look like we’d get to this point.
Not when Amari Cooper flat out dropped a fourth-and-9 ball while the Browns trailed 17-10 in the fourth quarter.
Not when Brissett needed to go 95 yards and only got 18 yards there after taking a third-down sack with under three minutes left.
But as has been the case many times in his career, Tom Brady stunk in the four-minute offense and couldn’t close the game. His incompletion on a second down saved the Browns time, and then Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney combined for a third-down sack to force another three-and-out.
Brissett only had to drive 46 yards for the tie after the punt, but he had help this time. Nick Chubb still has not been held under 80 rushing yards in the same season three weeks in a row since the first three games of his career when he was a backup. He made up for last week’s career-worst game with 116 yards and a touchdown in this one. But his 28-yard run after the two-minute warning got the team believing.
However, it was soon fourth-and-10. Brissett threw to the back middle of the end zone for David Njoku, and the tight end cemented his late bloomer year with a one-handed catch for a brilliant touchdown with 32 seconds left.
On a day where multiple teams were going for two in this spot, I can’t say I disagreed with the extra point. Not when you’re playing the LOAT and he can just chuck up some awful pass to Mike Evans and get 30 yards on a defensive pass interference penalty.
But with this game, we further saw the impact of the coaching deterioration around Brady. The downgrade from Bill Belichick to Bruce Arians showed up the last two years, and this year’s downgrade to Todd Bowles has been even more glaring.
Tampa Bay had all three timeouts and 32 seconds. That’s an eternity in today’s NFL to set up a field goal. But the Bucs took their time after a 1-yard completion and ended up with a 26-yard completion to Julio Jones out to midfield with only 8 seconds left. Terrible clock management. Surprisingly, Brady’s Hail Mary attempt was not caught, which is about the only lucky style of win he has never pulled off in his career.
In overtime, it looked like Tampa was going to get points on the first drive, but an illegal hands to the face call set up a third-and-14. Brady threw incomplete after pressure from Garrett again. After the Browns went three-and-out, you again expected the game-winning field goal from Tampa, but Garrett was on one Sunday and sacked Brady on another third down.
At this point, a tie comes to mind, but Amari Cooper was wide open on a blown coverage for a 45-yard gain to the 3-yard line. Two plays later, Chubb was in the end zone for the 23-17 win with 19 seconds left.
If this is it for Brissett, he did a better job than I expected he would in Cleveland. He is No. 7 in QBR (61.2) through Week 12. So, you can understand the appeal of Deshaun Watson in this already very functional offense if he can get back to the player he was and give the team a bigger edge in these close games that were not Brissett’s specialty, Sunday withstanding.
Of course, everything about the contract just feels gross, but this is what the Browns signed up for. It could be a spectacle in Houston next week, assuming anyone cares to show up to watch the worst team in the league host the NFL’s version of Bill Cosby.
Raiders at Seahawks: Josh Jacobs Is Reaching Henry/Chubb Territory
Josh Jacobs was one of those first-round running backs who really had no business going in the first round. Guys like Tony Pollard, Miles Sanders, and David Montgomery were sitting there in rounds 2-4 of the same 2019 draft.
But I must admit, Jacobs is taking off in Josh McDaniels’ offense, which is good news since it wiped out any effectiveness Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow had with Derek Carr. Jacobs is getting into that Nick Chubb/Derrick Henry territory with the season he’s having.
Jacobs put the team on his back again and amassed 303 yards from scrimmage in Seattle, including an 86-yard game-winning touchdown run in overtime. Jacobs rushed for 229 yards, the third time this season he set his career high in rushing in a game. He previously had 144 yards against Denver and 154 yards against Kansas City.
Remember when Seattle’s run defense looked like trash when the team was 2-3? Well, we are back to that point. The Munich game against Tampa Bay was a huge red flag things weren’t right again, and now the Raiders and Jacobs may have just damaged Seattle’s playoff chances. The Seattle running game was also MIA for the second game in a row.
Seattle’s offense was largely a dud down the stretch, scoring once on the final five drives, and going three-and-out in overtime before Jacobs’ big run. I hate giving credit to Carr for a handoff game-winning drive, but he earned his stripes this week with the 75-yard touchdown drive to force overtime. He even did it without a single penalty on the Seahawks this time.
The Raiders could be so much better than their 4-7 record, but those blown 17-point leads are going to haunt them. The Seahawks are now the No. 8 seed in the NFC, and they are 1-3 at game-winning drive opportunities.
This one will sting the most.
Rams at Chiefs: Red Zone Practice?
God damn, that Vegas is too good. Even with the Rams starting an unknown commodity in quarterback Bryce Perkins, they still were all over the spread (fluctuated between 15.5 to 16.5 before kickoff) in a 26-10 final, and they were right in the ballpark on Perkins’ rushing yards (44 yards on an over/under of 42.5).
But Perkins only passed for 100 yards, so maybe the passing game still had too high of expectations without Cooper Kupp or Allen Robinson available.
But this was sort of a game because of how bad the Chiefs were in the red zone. The “Chiefs are so creative in the red zone” announcer line is becoming the new “Antonio Gates played basketball” or “Ryan Fitzpatrick went to Harvard” line for Kansas City games.
Yes, we know they do some tricky stuff down there. But I swear before playoff time I want to check their home-road splits on red zone performance since 2018, because it sure feels like they try way too much cutesy shit at home and it doesn’t work out enough.
The Chiefs were 1-for-6 at scoring touchdowns in the red zone in this game, which was the only thing keeping the spread alive and the Rams within 10 points in the fourth quarter. Patrick Mahomes became the fourth quarterback ever to pass for over 320 yards in six straight games, but he threw a no-look pass that was intercepted in the end zone for his biggest blunder of the day.
But the Rams turned it over two plays later, and the Chiefs made that count for another field goal. They did the same thing on Perkins’ second pick to get to 26-10 and a cover after the Rams couldn’t get far on their final drive. The Rams couldn’t connect on a play longer than 16 yards.
The Chiefs have been great in the red zone this season, but Sunday was a disaster there. Let’s hope they learned some things about plays that don’t work when they take on the Bengals next week.
Chargers at Cardinals: Two-or-Die Take Two
This felt like a high-scoring, close game where the studs would show up, and it was exactly that. DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, James Conner, and Austin Ekeler all scored touchdowns.
But after the Cardinals took a 24-17 lead three plays into the fourth quarter, both defenses were taking control of the game. We saw six punts in a row, and it felt like Arizona had a great chance to win after sacking Justin Herbert and forcing a punt with 2:19 left.
Four-minute offense is the best way to close out a game, yet we see it butchered so often in this league. No one is asking for another score. Just get a first down or two to end the game. I’ll give Arizona credit for calling a pass on second down, but Kyler Murray took a bad sack and that all but derailed the drive.
Herbert had nearly a full two minutes, and he only needed to drive 38 yards after a good punt return and penalty on the Cardinals. Ekeler is incredible in space, and he made the most of those little catches on the drive to eventually break the plane and score with 15 seconds left.
Like Jacksonville earlier in the day against Baltimore, the Chargers went for two and the lead and likely win. I agreed with both calls on this day. The Chargers ran an excellent play with Allen drawing the defenders and leaving Gerald Everett wide open on the slant for the 25-24 lead.
The Cardinals were in a tough spot, but I’m not sure what Murray thought he was throwing on the last play, which fell incomplete at midfield. It was his first game all season with Marquise Brown and Hopkins together, and he still didn’t throw for 200 yards.
Herbert found a way to get it done after taking four sacks and leading the team in rushing with 38 yards. It is his 10th fourth-quarter comeback win, which joins Russell Wilson (10) and Derek Carr (12) as the only quarterbacks with at least 10 of those in their first three seasons.
Bears at Jets: Pour One Out for Zach Wilson?
There was something very amusing about watching Mike White and Trevor Siemian have a passing duel in the rain that you just suspect Justin Fields and Zach Wilson wouldn’t have matched.
But Siemian, after 116 yards in an impressive first quarter, disappointed the rest of the game while White put on another show with 315 yards and three touchdowns in an easy 31-10 win.
It’s pretty amazing that the Jets drafted Wilson with the No. 2 pick in 2021, they have four games with a quarterback going over 300 yards and three touchdowns ever since, but none of them were with Wilson at quarterback.
Two belong to Mike White, the first Jets quarterback to do this twice since Ken O’Brien. Josh Johnson had one last year and Joe Flacco did it this year.
The Wilson era may not be done in New York, but it is impossible to ignore that the best performances at that position since Robert Saleh took over as coach have come with the backup quarterbacks.
Maybe White gets exposed the next two weeks when they play the Vikings and Bills on the road, but it is hard to see how he doesn’t deserve to keep starting after what he has shown and how little Wilson has done for this offense.
Hurry-Up Finish
Another busy week ahead, so here are the final four games.
Broncos at Panthers: The Lowest Point Yet for Russell Wilson
Can it get much lower than this for Russell Wilson? Sure, it was another low-scoring game that hit the under (36.5) despite it being one of the lowest unders in any NFL game played before December in the last decade.
But at least in the first 10 Denver games this season, it was always a one-score game in the fourth quarter. Wilson always had a chance to pull it out late. The best he could do on the road against a 3-8 Carolina team starting Sam Darnold was a 23-10 deficit in the fourth quarter.
Denver’s only field goal drive in the game started at the Carolina 27, traveled 18 yards, and Wilson did not have a dropback on it. Even the lone touchdown drive came after a roughing the passer penalty negated an incompletion on fourth-and-18.
The 2022 Broncos are the sixth team since 2002 to fail to score 17 points nine times in their first 11 games. Look at the quarterback class Wilson is involved with here:
2004 Redskins (QB Mark Brunell)
2008 Rams (QB Marc Bulger)
2009 Raiders (QB JaMarcus Russell)
2011 Jaguars (QB Blaine Gabbert)
2011 Rams (QB Sam Bradford)
2022 Broncos (QB Russell Wilson)
Even Jimmy Clausen and the 2010 Panthers aren’t on this list anymore (8-of-11 games). This is pathetic.
Texans at Dolphins: Poor Bryce Young
If the Texans thought starting Kyle Allen would give the offense a boost, they were wrong. Turnovers contributed to Miami taking a 30-0 lead into halftime.
Now I’m usually all for pulling your key starters in a blowout but taking Tua Tagovailoa out with a 30-6 lead with 3:18 left in the third quarter was pretty bold by Mike McDaniel. At least go another drive and aim for the four-score lead in the fourth quarter before you take out Tua, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle at the very least.
At the same time, I kind of like the disrespect it showed to Houston, because this is one shitty team that had no real hope of making up 24 points. However, rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson fumbled a snap, and the Texans were in the end zone after starting at midfield.
Before you knew it, the Texans were only down 30-15 and had the ball with 7:12 left. Fortunately, the defense closed it out with another big sack and interception of Allen on the next two drives, preserving the 14-point cover for the win.
Miami’s offense finished with 23 points while only hitting one 30-yard play, allowing five sacks, and they could not get the running game going (26 carries for 66 yards) against what has been a laughingstock run defense all year long. We’ll need to see better play against the 49ers next week.
As for Houston, at least they probably can’t blow getting the No. 1 pick. But please do not let this coaching staff anywhere near Alabama quarterback Bryce Young or which ever signal caller they pick.
Falcons at Commanders: Oh, Now You Pass?
Even when the Buccaneers blow a game in Cleveland, the Falcons fail to capitalize. This was a very winnable game with the Falcons down 19-13, but they had first-and-goal at the 2 with 1:10 left.
For a team that wants to run the ball as much as possible, how do you not go to Cordarrelle Patterson here? Maybe even four times if necessary. Instead, the Falcons tried to run in Marcus Mariota, and he lost 2 yards, but at least it burned the final timeout for Washington.
So, with 63 seconds left, why on earth would you try to throw for a touchdown to take a 20-19 lead with a whole minute left when a field goal beats you? The Commanders were out of timeouts. The second down was the perfect spot to run the ball and take that clock down under 30 seconds.
But they tried to pass, and Mariota was intercepted on a tipped ball. Disaster. Atlanta still had all three timeouts, so it wasn’t over, but they managed to botch that too by running into the punter, which gave Washington a first down and ended the game. Pretty lousy time to have your second penalty of the game.
But an even worse time to go to Mariota on back-to-back plays on first and second down with goal-to-go.
Saints at 49ers: Sean Payton and Drew Brees Would Never…
The last time the Saints were shut out was the 2001 season finale, a 38-0 loss to the 49ers. Well, the 49ers got them again with a 13-0 shutout that didn’t really feel like the final score.
Hard to imagine many 13-0 games where each team only had nine possessions. The Saints are just the 14th team since the 1970 merger to get shut out in a game with a maximum of two turnovers and four punts from their side.
But the two fumbles by Alvin Kamara were crucial. The one on the opening drive set up a short field for a field goal by the 49ers, and the late one at the 1-yard line was a crazy play with him trying so hard to score and not securing the ball. It was nearly the third offensive fumble recovery for a touchdown of the day, but the 49ers got the ball instead.
Nick Bosa secured the shutout with a ridiculously timed jump for a sack of Andy Dalton on a fourth-and-goal from the 4. The 49ers were able to run out the final 6:18 on the clock to get the cover (-8.5) and the 13-0 win. Interestingly enough, Jordan Mason, who had five career carries coming into the day, got the final four carries for the 49ers to pick up the last two first downs.
Does that mean Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell are injured again? We’ll see. Big test coming next week against Miami.
Next Week
Good news: It looks #greatonpaper
We’ll see if Bill Belichick can control the weather again for Buffalo this Thursday night.
Lock the doors, hide your wife, hide your daughters, it’s Deshaun Watson Week in Houston.
Can Mike White be the one to end Minnesota’s close-game winning streak?
Biggest Washington-Giants game in many years.
Can Derrick Henry get an upset going in Philly?
49ers-Dolphins is an outstanding matchup of offense vs. defense
Chiefs-Bengals is a premiere matchup, especially if Ja’Marr Chase returns
I’m not feeling well today and still have a lot of things to do this weekend, so here are the Week 12 picks. Hopefully I’ll be able to write Stat Oddity tomorrow night.
The good news this week: I don’t have to rant and complain about injuries and the caliber of games on this week’s schedule. Week 12 might actually be the best schedule of games this season, and that’s with the Chiefs and the team with the best record in the league (Arizona) on a bye week.
The Sunday slate looks like the best we’ll get the rest of the regular season thanks to LAR-GB, TEN-NE, MIN-SF, TB-IND, PIT-CIN, LAC-DEN, and CLE-BAL.
Have some of these games lost some luster from a month ago? Sure. The Rams and Packers have been slumping, the Titans are falling apart with injuries, and all of the AFC North teams have their share of flaws and bad performances.
But some of these games look a lot better than they did a month ago. I sure can’t wait for Jonathan Taylor to rush for 125 yards against a tough Tampa Bay run defense and still lose because Carson Wentz gets outplayed by the LOAT, which somehow means to the MSM that Brady is the MVP in this hellscape season. But maybe the Colts can surprise again like they did in Buffalo last week.
The 49ers-Vikings is also an interesting one with these teams on the rise as the sixth and seventh seeds in the NFC. The winner of this one could really get a push towards that sixth seed, but it wouldn’t be surprising if both still made the playoffs with the way the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, and Seahawks are floundering. Philadelphia is another team on the upswing in the conference with a head-to-head loss to the 49ers. So I would say it’s a slightly more important game for the Vikings than San Francisco.
But the big one is still Rams-Packers where the line has moved to Rams -2 despite the game being in Green Bay. Head coach Matt LaFleur has been at least a 3-point favorite in all 23 of his home games since 2019 where he is 16-7 ATS (.696) and 20-3 SU (.870).
Not that homefield is what it used to be, but no team has a better home record (SU or ATS) in the NFL since 2019 than LaFleur’s Packers. I have my issues with how good this team really is under him, but the fact is they still win a lot. Aaron Rodgers has the toe injury but he had it last week when he threw four touchdowns. The defense was a big letdown in Minnesota.
This is the kind of game the Rams brought Matthew Stafford in for. This is the kind of game he has to show he can win after going 8-68 against winning teams in his career coming into this season. He got the home win over Tampa Bay this year, which was great, but as it turns out the Cardinals with Kyler Murray might be the best team in the NFC this year. He lost that one big. He lost another big one in prime time to the Titans largely on the back of his two interceptions. He played better against the 49ers but it was another uneven performance and another bad one for the team in a big loss. We haven’t seen them since with the bye, so this is a huge road test.
Not to mention that whole 32-18 playoff game won by Green Bay in January where Jared Goff was not horrific. But the Rams’ so-called No. 1 defense was shredded by Rodgers and dominated on the ground as well. We’ll see if they put in a better effort this time.
I’m looking forward to this one. It’s a clash of Stafford’s horrific history against teams this good and Green Bay’s awful history in the Rodgers era against these quality NFC teams outside the division. I’m going with Green Bay as I just do not like what I’ve seen from the Rams lately. Was Green Bay’s offense off when Rodgers returned against Seattle? Yeah, but the defense still pitched a shutout. Was Green Bay’s defense legitimately terrible last week? Yeah, but they dropped some Kirk Cousins interceptions and the offense put up a fight in a game decided on a last-second field goal. That still beats getting blown out 28-16 and 31-10 like the Rams.
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 