Tag: Week 17

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 17

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

In picking NFL games weekly for over 20 years, I still long for the week where I go 16-0. I’ve been 15-1 before, and if the Lions take care of the 49ers Monday night, then Week 17 will be a 15-1 week too.

But those god damn Colts just had to screw it up with the upset of the week against the lowest-scoring team in the league. So, I’ll wait for another chance to go 16-0, and this would have been a great week as favorites absolutely killed it with a 14-1 record so far.

Most of the games weren’t even that competitive with only six games featuring a comeback opportunity, and we didn’t have a single fourth-quarter lead change in the NFL from the time Sam Darnold threw that touchdown to Justin Jefferson in Seattle last week up until the Falcons-Commanders game tonight.

It’s been a long week, and I’m not even going to bother covering Wednesday and Thursday’s games here. Let’s get to it.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Falcons at Commanders: Welcome to the Salary Cap Era, Washington

One of my favorite annual stats to cite is no longer true. When I had to write about the Washington franchise, I always pointed out how this is the only NFL team that hasn’t had an 11-win season in the salary cap era since 1994. Every other team’s had multiple 11-win seasons in that time.

Well, the Commanders represent a new era for the franchise, Daniel Snyder is no longer the owner, and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is their savior. Daniels was again historic as a dual-threat on the night in a comeback win against Atlanta, and the Commanders are 11-5 and heading to the playoffs behind the player I think is the MVP of the league this year.

It wasn’t a great start as the Falcons led 17-7, but the Commanders were hurting themselves with a lot of offensive holding penalties, a penalty these refs were calling very tight all night and sometimes on both teams.

But the Commanders controlled the clock in the second half, and Daniels was almost perfect down the stretch. He led a long go-ahead touchdown drive to start the fourth quarter, he had a touchdown pass to put them up 11 negated by another holding penalty, and then after Michael Penix Jr. led a clutch game-tying touchdown drive by converting on multiple 4th-and-longs, Daniels again threw a strike on 3rd-and-10 deep to a streaking receiver.

But the pass was dropped, and the Commanders went three-and-out in the final minute of a tied game. That looked like it might cost them, but the Falcons badly mismanaged their two timeouts by wasting time and not getting closer for their new kicker, Riley Patterson. After getting a DPI penalty, they tried a 56-yard field goal that was straight enough but short, so we went to overtime.

The Commanders won the toss and Daniels in his first overtime game did not give Atlanta the ball back. He controlled the drive with his arm and legs on a night where he ran it 16 times for 127 yards before throwing his third touchdown pass to Zach Ertz, who made a nice catch in the end zone to put an end to this one at 30-24.

The Falcons (8-8) are back to being in trouble for the playoffs, because they picked the worst time to blow their first fourth-quarter lead in the Raheem Morris era. But they really blew the clock management in each half of this one. I’m not sure why teams are getting so bad at not calling timeouts or spiking the ball or getting the next play in quicker. Someone like Peyton Manning has to be watching these games in disgust with the poor jobs we’re seeing around the league.

But Daniels looks like the next big thing in the NFL. We’ll get to see what he can do in the playoffs where he can enhance his legacy after one of the greatest rookie quarterback seasons ever.

Arguably the greatest when you consider his efficiency, his dual-threat ability, the way he makes up for the defense to win games with clutch moments, and he’s doing it for a franchise that hasn’t known success like this in decades.

Broncos at Bengals: Sean Payton Choke Meme

Some coincidence that our only two game-winning drives in Week 17 came courtesy of rookie quarterbacks forcing overtime on the road in 30-24 games that didn’t feel like they were ever going to end with some piss-poor game management from each team.

This was the better game of the two with the higher stakes, and watching the Denver defense hold Cincinnati to just a touchdown in the first half. It really felt like another Cincinnati playoff game where the offense looked tight, underwhelming, and the defense was stepping up in a 10-10 game to start the fourth quarter.

But the floodgates really opened in the fourth quarter with the teams exchanging touchdowns before they exchanged turnovers with a Tee Higgins fumble and a bad Bo Nix interception. That pick and a big pass to Ja’Marr Chase gave the Bengals a 1st-and-10 at the Denver 21 at the 2-minute warning with the Broncos down to two timeouts.

Now this is a situation where you would love to manage the clock so that if you take a couple of plays to get a first down, you could time this up to win 20-17 on a field goal on the final snap, the best way to end a game like this. But the Bengals, a team with minimal success in these situations over the years, botched it big time. They completed a pass to Chase Bronw that led the back out of bounds, then Burrow threw an incomplete pass, so that’s two snaps that took 9 seconds and saved both timeouts for Denver. Horrible job.

After converting a third down, the Bengals tried to run with Brown, who made an understandable decision to not score. But he must not be a baseball player as his slide technique was bad and he injured his ankle on the play, which cost his team a timeout. Not good. If he goes down properly, they could just take 2 knees and kick a field goal in the last 10 seconds to win this one.

That changed things, but it was still weird to see Burrow just sneak it in for a touchdown that Denver probably didn’t mind given the circumstances. The Broncos were going to get the ball back with 1:29 and a timeout. That’s pretty good, and the other reason you fear being up a touchdown instead of a field goal in that situation is that the team could always go for two and the win should they score. If it’s a field goal game, they’re just going to get the field goal most likely.

Sure enough, the Cincinnati defense let down after an encouraging game to that point. I’m not sure it was the greatest game management once the Broncos got inside the 35, but on a 4th-and-1, Nix showed some stones when he threw deep for Marvin Mims for a 25-yard touchdown with 8 seconds left.

Originally, it looked like the Broncos were going to go for two, but they changed their minds after a review confirmed the touchdown. This has been the big second-guessing moment after the game if they should have just gone for the 2-point conversion there to win the game.

But this was an unusual circumstance, because an overtime tie for Denver is just as good as a win in getting them into the playoffs. With that knowledge, I can totally buy going for the extra point and overtime. There’s also the fact that I think Joe Burrow has one of the weakest killer instincts in the NFL and I wouldn’t fear going to overtime with him one bit.

Sure enough, the Bengals got the ball first in overtime, and as soon as the drive reached midfield with the Bengals in position to go win the game, Burrow took back-to-back sacks and the team had to punt. Tale as old as time.

But the Broncos also went three-and-out, so that was bad. Their playcalling down the stretch was brutal, including a very ill-timed screen pass in the fourth quarter that almost lost the game earlier for them.

The Bengals took their second overtime drive and wasted it with a 33-yard field goal that hit the upright on third down. Why kick it a down early when you have time to get even closer? That kick isn’t hitting the upright if the kick was a few yards closer. Typical Zac Taylor in these spots.

With 2:43 left, a competent team would make Cincy pay for this, but the Broncos have not looked smart these last few weeks. I’m far more annoyed by Payton’s approach to this drive than any decision to kick an extra point at the end of regulation. First, he saved the Bengals time by calling multiple timeouts on defense on the previous drive. Would have been more beneficial to let that tick down if they were just going to choke anyway. Remember, the tie is cool for Denver and season ending for Cincinnati.

But then to not see the opportunity with 2:43 left that a first down or two ends the game and gets you in the playoffs? Awful. The Broncos ran three bad plays, punted, and only used up 23 seconds.

Burrow found Higgins for 31 yards on their best connection of the day down the sideline, then instead of relying on a backup kicker, they just threw a touchdown from 3 yards out to win it 30-24 and keep hope alive.

But I can’t help but point out how bad the game management was for both teams. If you’re the Bengals, you want to win that 20-17 in regulation and avoid this mess. That’s what the Chiefs would do in that spot, and yet people would have the nerve to bash them for winning a low-scoring 20-17 game. Meanwhile, that’s just smart football. 30-24 with all these extra possessions is just dumb.

However, that’s why these teams are fighting with Miami to be the last ones in the tournament and go to Buffalo. They’re not good teams this year. But they did make for an entertaining game and finish on Saturday.

Packers at Vikings: Sam Darnold Takeover

Remember in 2019 when Dan Orlovsky would make that ridiculous point about Carson Wentz “taking over” games for the Eagles? I’m not sure what made me think of that from this game, but I saw the way Sam Darnold was just completely outplaying Jordan Love, who struggled to get to 100 passing yards, and it made me think of the way Darnold just took this game over with 377 passing yards on 43 attempts despite the Vikings never trailing after it was 3-0 early.

Darnold had a fantastic game again. Sure, he threw the one pick when they were up big and it led to a little comeback attempt from the Packers that made this one scary at 27-25 with 2:18 left after the Packers wisely went for two. Someone explain to Tom Brady why they did that, please. Greg Olsen knows.

But with Aaron Jones injured, the Vikings needed to salt this one away with the passing game, and Darnold delivered on his last few attempts in the four-minute offense to make sure the Packers never touched the ball again.

You like a safer ending than that, but you’ll gladly take the big win for the Vikings, who swept the Packers with a pair of 2-point wins where Green Bay never had the ball in the fourth quarter while trailing by one score. That’s hard to pull off against an 11-win team, but they did it twice this year, and now they are going to be in Detroit next Sunday night for the No. 1 seed. Incredible stuff.

As for the Packers, my preseason Super Bowl pick, it’s very alarming the way they’ve lost to the Lions twice, the Vikings twice, and also in Brazil against the Eagles in Week 1. They made it look close enough at the end of these games, but you have to beat these teams in the playoffs to get to the Super Bowl, and that’s not looking strong right now.

But maybe they have a revenge tour in mind. We’ll just have to see as this division has been fantastic, and it’s getting the proper send-off with one of the best regular-season games in NFL history as it could be a pair of 14-2 teams if Detroit wins Monday night.

Jets at Bills: The New Three Stooges

And to think this game looked like it might decide the AFC East back in May when the schedule came out. But at least the Jets didn’t have to worry about blowing a fourth-quarter lead this time. They were down 40-0 before getting some points with Tyrod Taylor replacing Aaron Rodgers in the fourth quarter. That’s the first time in Rodgers’ career he trailed by 40 points in a game.

Anyone touting this as an MVP performance for Josh Allen just had their mind made up before the game even started. This shouldn’t move the needle as he finished with 199 total yards and 3 touchdowns, including a 1-yard sneak on 1st-and-goal to start the game. But the Bills only had 10 points on offense in the first half. The short fields they kept getting from the defense blew this one open after the Bills scored touchdowns of 38, 37, and 15 yards.

Rodgers had a rough day with 4 sacks, 2 picks, and he even picked up a 15-yard flag for a little shove out of bounds on a defender after his pick.

This is Buffalo’s division and could be for a long time like it was for New England.

Colts at Giants: No Banners, Just Misery

The 2024 Colts had issues with their quarterback position, including a disastrous benching of Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco, and of course the way Richardson has struggled with accuracy and staying healthy. But let’s not blame their downfall at the end on Richardson’s latest injury that put Flacco back in action in a must-win game in New York.

It was the defense who ultimately delivered the final embarrassing blow for this team after allowing Drew Lock, who had one of the worst games by any quarterback this season against Atlanta last week, to lead the lowest-scoring team in the NFL to 45 points.

Lock damn near had a perfect passer rating (155.3) with 309 yards and 4 touchdowns, but I don’t want to give him too much credit. The inability to tackle Malik Nabers (171 yards and 2 TD) had a lot to do with those numbers. This is right up there with the Tavon Austin (2013), Jonas Gray (2014), Brock Osweiler (2016), and 2021 Jacksonville games for the Colts. If you know the Colts, you know what I mean.

The offense was far from perfect, but they put up 33 points and Flacco had a couple of late turnovers after the game looked out of reach. It was just a disastrous day for the defense as they couldn’t even tackle Lock on an obvious scramble for another touchdown with 2:57 left that made it 42-33.

Embarrassing stuff, and I think heads have to roll in Indy after this. The defensive coordinator at the very least must go. At least with the team in past seasons after Andrew Luck retired, they had some moments I joked about with banners, mocking their “2014 AFC Finalist” banner. But this team under Steichen? No such achievements. Just enough teasing that they’re a bad wild-card caliber team that will get bounced in the 7-2 matchup, then they can’t even get into the tournament anyway.

The Colts have become irrelevant, and that’s sad to see.

Panthers at Buccaneers: More Domination

The Panthers and Buccaneers were in overtime in Week 13 with Baker Mayfield having a sloppy game. That wasn’t the case Sunday as he had as many incomplete passes (5) as he had touchdown passes. The Bucs were absolutely dominant in a 48-14 win to get back on track after that upset loss in Dallas.

Thanks to the Commanders taking care of Atlanta, the Bucs are back in position to win the NFC South again. They’ll just have to beat the Saints at home or hope the Falcons lose to the Panthers.

Cardinals at Rams: Another Low-Scoring Win

Ever since the Rams beat Buffalo 44-42, they are 3-0 in games that ended 44-24 cumulatively. It’s been a wild run for a team with Matthew Stafford at quarterback, who again didn’t get much going in the passing game outside of throwing to Puka Nacua.

The Rams are the first team since the 2006 Broncos to win at least three straight games where they didn’t score 20 points and didn’t allow 10 points. Those Broncos did it in five straight games. But the Rams are 10-6 after a 1-4 start, 9-2 since the bye, and they needed their defense to deliver with a goal line stand against the Cardinals.

Kyler Murray finally threw a touchdown to Trey McBride on a screen pass, but when he later went for him with the game on the line, he hit him right in the head with the ball and it was caught on the deflection for an incredible interception to secure the 13-9 win.

With Washington’s win, the Rams clinched the NFC West. They could play the Commanders or Packers in the playoffs, and it likely will be tough on them. But another great turnaround job by McVay after a poor start.

Cowboys at Eagles: Kenny Pickett Doing Kenny Pickett Things

A year ago, I wouldn’t have believed Kenny Pickett would be starting a game for the Eagles to clinch the division title, but here we are. One thing that doesn’t surprise me is it was Pickett vs. Cooper Rush as Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts have met just three times since Hurts was drafted in 2020. They’re the Ravens-Steelers of the NFC as far as their quarterbacks missing the rivalry games go.

But before leaving yet another game with an injury, Pickett had some hilarious highlights like this play here:

He also should have had two touchdown passes in a half for the first time in his career, but penalties and a receiver going down at the 1 before he snuck it in on the Tush Push prevented that. But you have to laugh that the third quarterback, Tanner McKee, came in for Pickett and threw 2 touchdowns on 4 pass attempts in his NFL debut.

With CeeDee Lamb out, the Cowboys had little to show for on offense, turned it over four times, and made this a fairly easy 41-7 win for Philly. Saquon Barkley rushed for 167 yards, becoming the 9th player to hit 2,000 yards in a season. I’m glad he did it in 16 games. I’m not sure him breaking Dickerson’s record – he needs 101 yards – in a 17th game where he probably doesn’t even need to play a snap with the Eagles the No. 2 seed – would be a legitimate way to break the record. Just let it be and get ready for the playoffs.

Chargers at Patriots: What Exactly Does New England Do Well?

I’m used to the Chargers choking against the Patriots, and even in winning there last year, they still had two field goals in a 6-0 dud. But between Drake Maye checking out early with a possible concussion (he later returned) and the way the score got out of hand so quickly, I found myself changing the cats’ litter boxes by the third quarter after Ladd McConkey (my guy) punked them for a second touchdown.

Nice to see the Chargers get a comfortable win and punch their postseason ticket with a 10-6 record. I’m just not sure what the Patriots do well at this point as the defense has gotten worse with Jerod Mayo, and they still don’t have any weapons for Drake Maye.

But hey, they might have the No. 1 pick now and we know they won’t need to draft a quarterback. Travis Hunter time?

Raiders at Saints: I Actually Missed Derek Carr Sunday

This was supposed to be Derek Carr’s chance to make history by losing starts to all 32 NFL teams. But he was out with an injury, so we got treated to another Spencer Rattler start. At least they scored some points this week after getting shutout in Green Bay, but it was still a decisive 25-10 win for the Raiders, who are suddenly on a winning streak.

Given the way the offense moved the ball with a rare appearance by the running game (156 yards), I think the Raiders would have defeated Carr in New Orleans in this one. A pity we didn’t get the chance to see it.

Dolphins at Browns: Good Job, Miami

I rarely have anything good to say about Miami, because I don’t think any franchise does more to have irrelevant 7-to-9 win seasons that don’t produce a postseason win. But I have to say it was a good job by Mike McDaniel’s team to win on the road in Cleveland with Tyler Huntley at quarterback after a surprise inactive for Tua Tagovailoa in a must-win game.

Huntley was very good at managing the game while the Browns saw “DTR” complete 24-of-47 passes for 170 yards in a 20-3 final. For the people who don’t believe quarterbacks change everything, just think how differently this game looks if it was Tua vs. Jameis.

But the Dolphins (8-8) stay alive and just need the Broncos to lose to the Chiefs to make the playoffs next week if they beat the Jets to finish 9-8. But a 9-8 finish that doesn’t even result in a postseason berth would be 100% on brand for Miami.

Titans at Jaguars: It’s Raining, It’s Boring

Well, the Titans (3-13) are abysmal after a couple of low-scoring losses at the hands of the Jaguars this month. They had a late shot to win this one with a touchdown and 2-point conversion, but Mason Rudolph’s rally came up 26 yards short.

We’ll see if the Jaguars make a coaching change for 2025, but you have to say the Jaguars are closer to competing than the Titans as the way things stand. At least Trevor Lawrence can come back and throw to a young stud in Brian Thomas Jr. next season.

Next week: The end is nigh. On Saturday, it looks like they’re giving Lamar Jackson one last MVP showcase with the biggest spread (18.5) of the season against the Browns. Then it’s Bengals-Steelers, which feels like an attempt to get Cincy in since the Steelers might want to rest players if the Ravens have the division locked up. Sunday, we’ll see if the Broncos can beat Kansas City’s backups (Carson Wentz beat the 49ers’ backups last year with the Rams) or if Sean Payton will join the 2004 Bills as chokers in that situation. But the big one is the last one with Vikings at Lions, possibly a matchup of 14-2 teams for the No. 1 seed. Brilliant.

NFL 2024 Week 17 Predictions: The Longest Week Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Well, the NFL is pulling it off. A Week 17 spanning from Wednesday (Christmas) through Monday night with eight different island games is one of the longest weeks in NFL history, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that island game mark is a single-week record.

We have a Saturday tripleheader to thank for it, and I’m not exactly looking forward to spending most of my attention for a day on these games. But at least I already finished season 2 of Squid Game on Netflix.

It’s not that the games are terrible today (Saturday), but the games this week going back to Green Bay’s Monday night win (34-0 vs. Saints) have been terrible. One sided or just downright offensively offensive like Seahawks-Bears was Thursday night. I think some teams are packing it in a bit and some are just waiting for the playoffs to start.

I’ve barely been betting any money on these games and I feel vindicated every time when you see a game like TNF without any touchdowns, or a game like HOU-BAL where no one on the Ravens had more than 2 catches. It’s rough out there.

Save your bankroll for the postseason, folks.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 17 Predictions

I nailed it on Christmas with the teams that won Saturday taking care of business again. I’m really starting to believe in a Chiefs-Ravens rematch in the AFC Championship Game.

NE-LAC: Christ, it was a 6-0 game last year and this one is again the Chargers on the road in an early body clock game. For that reason, plus their general inability to score a lot of points, I’m going to hedge and take the Pats to cover. Can see the Chargers winning on a late field goal here or Drake Maye turning the ball over in a 4QC attempt.

DEN-CIN: I know the Bengals are +1800 to make the playoffs but I’d love to see those odds updated if they win this game, because this is the big one with a chance to hand Denver a loss, the team they’re most likely going to have to steal that final wild card from as I like the Chargers to finish 11-6. I think the Bengals win the turnover battle, Joe Burrow’s 250 yard/3 TD pass streak stops, but very much like a Cincy playoff game (which this might be the closest thing they get to one in 2024), they still win with the defense stepping up.

ARI-LAR: The Cardinals absolutely blasted the Rams 41-10 earlier this year in a game where Puka Nacua was out and Cooper Kupp was injured. But the Cardinals are eliminated and the Rams could clinch the division this weekend (but not Saturday night as they need a strength of victory tiebreaker clinched over the weekend). Again, I’ll hedge and say the Cards can keep it close since the Rams have been needing 4QCs the last two weeks in low-volume passing performances for Stafford. But I do expect the Rams to win the game.

DAL-PHI: Really,? You mean that thumbs up from Jalen Hurts didn’t mean he was good enough to finish Sunday and he’ll miss another game too? That’s shocking. But even with Kenny Pickett there, I love Saquon Barkley to have a huge game as his final award push, and the Cowboys shutting down CeeDee should put a damper on Cooper Rush’s first reads against a good defense. Give me the Eagles to still cover.

IND-NYG: Is it Joe Flacco time or Anthony Richardson? I’m not sure it matters given the trash the Giants plan to roll out at quarterback again. The Colts can absolutely blow this, but I think the running game and defense lead to a convincing win.

LV-NO: It doesn’t sound like Derek Carr will get that chance to lose to his 32nd team against the Raiders. But after seeing what the Saints did Monday night, yeah, I’ll just take the Raiders here. Get those Brock Bower stats up.

NYJ-BUF: I think the game being close last time and the Bills looking shaky last week suggests a Jets +9.5 pick. But I’m just going to go against logic and take Buffalo to win by double digits. Might be Allen’s last game to pad his numbers for MVP, so I’d expect as many sneak opportunities at the goal line as possible.

TEN-JAX: Horrid game, but last time I trusted the Titans, they lost 10-6 to this team. Give me Jags for the sweep even if Mason Rudolph should deliver a win Just can’t trust them.

CAR-TB: Last time the game went to overtime before the Bucs pulled it out. Again, logic would say Panthers +8.5 is an easy call but I’m going with the Bucs winning big after slipping up in Dallas. Offense will be stronger.

MIA-CLE: Honestly? I just don’t care without Jameis.

GB-MIN: Great game potential, and I swear the Packers were -1.5 when I did this 24 hours ago. But I do like the Vikings to win again and pull it out in the fourth quarter by coming up with a takeaway or critical stop against Love. Mostly, I’m just rooting hard for the Vikings to win so we get Vikings-Lions on SNF next week to decide the No. 1 seed. That’s the best possible ending to the regular season and we need a MIN win here to get there.

ATL-WAS: Curious to see Penix Jr. in his first prime-time game and only 2nd start. But I’m also banking on Jayden Daniels to back me up with a big game for the MVP talk I’ve been giving him throughout this season.

DET-SF: My favorite spread pick all week is Lions -3.5. I think they’ll go in there seeking revenge for blowing that lead in the title game and kick some ass against a San Francisco team that’s already eliminated and playing a lot of poor football the last month.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 17

~ Scott ~ 4 Comments

Admittedly, I had higher expectations for Sunday after the way Week 17 started with Joe Flacco practically throwing for 300 yards in a half against the Jets (without Amari Cooper), then the game not even producing a touchdown after a 51-point half (an NFL first).

Then we watched the Lions and Cowboys on Saturday night in a game that I would describe as ideal for a big matchup this year. Not a shootout with horrible defense and receivers running wide open everywhere, but talented players (CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, etc.) stepping up to make plays, defenses making it tough on both offenses, and a lot of strategic decisions you can second guess like Dan Campbell sticking to his guns with 4th downs and 2-point conversions.

In the end, there was another officiating controversy I’m in no mood on New Year’s night to write about. Officials suck, period, but it was at least an illegal formation, no? They threw two flags. But I think the 2-point decision by Detroit was defensible with 23 seconds left. I just don’t agree with going for it from the 7-yard line after the penalty. But that game also showed why both teams are good but still a little hard to trust.

But Sunday didn’t produce too many thrills. There were 8 games with a comeback opportunity. The only lead changes saw Patrick Mahomes lead the 20th game-winning drive of his career, a game where the Chiefs scored six field goals after falling behind by 10 points, and an epic comeback/choke in Philadelphia that can really rewrite the season script for January.

Because we are into January now, and we know that brings out the worst in NFL fans. So, let’s try to keep a levelheaded view of where things are with one week to go.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Dolphins at Ravens: Game of the Ye-Yeah, We REALLY Need to Stop Hyping These

I want to give Mike McDaniel credit for picking the Dallas week to deliver his cute little “respectfully, f off” speech to the media when asked about Miami’s record against winning teams during his tenure. If you’ve been following Miami (and Dallas), then you know playing a contender on the road is the much bigger issue for this team as seen in the losses this year to the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs (Germany).

Practically every team is going to struggle in road games against contenders, but Miami’s track record is not one that makes me think this team is anything more than a paper tiger. A team built on speed, not enough depth as McDaniel thinks he has, and an offense that seems to fail against the contenders that have strong defenses.

But in a way, I almost felt bad for them going down 56-19 in Baltimore, because they are better than that, and this was the first time in one of these big matchups this year where they had a valid excuse to underperform. They didn’t have Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert on offense, and when you are an offense built around speed, then not having half of your main weapons you rely so heavily on is a big blow.

But in a game that likely locked up an MVP for Lamar Jackson, it also showed why someone like Tyreek Hill can almost never be MVP in this league. On a day where Waddle is out, you have to expect Hill to do more. But when the game was very much competitive, Hill had a huge blunder that cost his team 4 points when he bobbled a wide-open catch in the end zone and couldn’t secure it in time with both feet down. The Dolphins had to settle for a field goal and 10-7 lead instead of 14-7 after this started out like the Buffalo loss in Week 4 where it looked like a shootout before it quickly turned into a bloodbath.

Hill finished with 6 catches on 12 targets for 76 yards, a below-average game for his high standards this year. The dream of 2,000 yards is over now unless he has one of the greatest games in NFL history against those Bills next week.

The Hill drop stung, but the Dolphins largely blew this game late in the second quarter to early in the third quarter, not unlike the Packers in the 2020 NFC Championship Game against Tampa Bay.

After settling for another field goal to make Baltimore’s lead 14-13, Zay Flowers got behind the defense for a 75-yard touchdown, avoiding two tackles on a 1-play drive to make it 21-13.

Miami loves to play fast in every way, but sometimes that rush to get another play off before the 2-minute warning is completely unnecessary as it was here with the Dolphins already in Baltimore territory. But Tua rushed the play, and he was picked. It looked like the defense might force a 4-and-out after the Ravens decided to go for a 4th-and-7 in no man’s land, but Jackson’s pass was pulled in with one hand by tight end Isaiah Likely, who raced the rest of the way for a 35-yard touchdown to blow it open at 28-13.

The Dolphins also botched their hurry-up offense on the final drive of the half, ending without any points again. To start the second half, Baltimore returned the kickoff 78 yards to help the offense start a drive in the red zone as I’ve mentioned this week the Ravens have the best starting field position in the league. Three plays later, Jackson found a wide open Likely for another touchdown.

In under 5 minutes of action, the Ravens went from a 14-13 lead to a 35-13 lead, and just like that the game was basically over.

The Dolphins were famously down 21 points in the fourth quarter last year in Baltimore and won 42-38, the only big road win of McDaniel’s career to this day. But while they were down 22 in this quarter and got a touchdown to make it 35-19, the Ravens made sure history would not be repeated. They quickly drove for 75 yards as Jackson threw his fifth touchdown pass, then the Dolphins went 4-and-out with Tua scrambling unsuccessfully on a 4th-and-long, setting up yet another short-field touchdown for the Ravens. Tyler Huntley even came in after the Dolphins fumbled a snap and threw a sixth touchdown pass for Baltimore to make it 56-19 one play after Bradley Chubb was injured for Miami, another potentially big loss for the defense.

Would Waddle and Mostert have made a difference? They unfortunately can’t play defense. But maybe a fuller offense could have made it 21-16 or tied it up at 21 going into halftime instead of that disastrous finish. But, I’m not sure I’d like Miami’s chances to even cover the spread in a rematch in Baltimore because that’s where the game would be with the Ravens locking up the No. 1 seed.

Tale as old as time in the NFL. The “finesse” offense (the track team) gets punched in the mouth by the No. 1 defense, and the less heralded offense on the other side is the one that’s finding all the big plays and making it look easy.

Seriously, Jackson threw 5 touchdown passes in this game and 4 of them went to wide-open receivers, and 2 of them were one-handed catches. If that wasn’t happening, there was almost no pressure on him with a massive pocket to work from, and they even made big YAC plays in this game. It was a total shredding of the Miami defense.

But it’s also historic in that this was not the first time this season Miami allowed a quarterback to throw for 300 yards with a perfect passer rating (158.3). They already did that in Buffalo against Josh Allen in Week 4 when he was 21-of-25 for 320 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also rushed for a touchdown in that 48-20 win.

This makes the 2023 Dolphins the first defense in NFL history to allow multiple quarterbacks to throw for 300 yards with a perfect passer rating.

In fact, this stat is very much a Miami thing as it’s not even the first time Jackson has done it against them. He did it against the 2019 Dolphins, the “Tank for Tua” year, which started his first MVP campaign in Week 1. Of the last 18 times a defense has allowed a game like this since 2007, 6 of them were against the Dolphins. It’s only happened 34 times ever.

With the top seed locked up, the Ravens can choose to rest starters, though that’s a lot of rest before the divisional round. The Dolphins have a division title game on Sunday night against Buffalo, but at least it’s at home.

On the road, you fade these Dolphins every time. As for the Ravens, it might take another one of those Playoff Joe Flacco miracles (and one from Myles Garrett) to put an end to this run they are on. Cleveland is the only team to beat the Ravens in their last 11 games.

Cause you can’t count on Miami to do it in Baltimore. You want to trust Kansas City with that offense right now? That sounds like a couple of Mahomes incompletions on 4th-and-25 waiting to happen. Buffalo? Not even a lock to make the tournament.

But if you’re going to start putting all your adulation on this Baltimore team, then the expectations better be the highest as well. It’s their Super Bowl to lose now.

Bengals at Chiefs: Another Cincinnati Season Ends in Arrowhead

Usually when you talk about the Chiefs and “six field goals” you are talking about Mike Tomlin’s last playoff win. But this peculiar game, which goes down as the 20th game-winning drive for Patrick Mahomes, is another case of the Bizarro 2023 Chiefs doing things we are not used to seeing them do.

Jake Browning looked game early, and the Bengals were up 17-7 while limiting Mahomes’ possessions and shrinking the game, still an excellent gameplan against the Chiefs as they are so mistake prone these days.

But Steve Spagnuolo’s defense again rose to the occasion, stopped the early bleeding, and the Bengals failed to score on their final 7 drives. After an opening-drive touchdown was followed by a Mahomes strip-sack, the Chiefs embarked on an odyssey of drives that saw them settle for 6 field goals over the next 7 drives.

They were still decent-length drives except the last one, but they always stalled out for some reason. MVS had another bad 3rd-down drop to end one drive, then Mahomes made a few too many checkdowns on other 3rd downs that were short of the line to gain. To Andy Reid’s credit, I can’t really argue with the decision to kick on any of them. They were all 4th-and-3 or longer except the last one, and they were all outside of the 5-yard line. The Chiefs just kept chipping away while the Bengals continuously stalled after that hot start.

The game-winning drive was early in the quarter, and the play that defined it was actually late third quarter when Mahomes floated one deep down the right sideline for Rashee Rice, who took it 67 yards to the red zone. Rice (127 yards) and Isiah Pacheco (165 scrimmage yards) were fantastic in a game where Travis Kelce had just 3 catches on 4 targets for 16 yards against what is statistically the worst defense against tight ends this year. Even Noah Gray had 17 yards in this one, so that connection with Kelce is really not clicking going into the playoffs.

But it didn’t matter in this one. The Chiefs had Rice and Pacheco, and they had a defense that sacked Browning 5 times in the last 5:29 of the game. Is that an homage to Joe Burrow? But it was relentless defense at the end, and this time it was Browning instead of Mahomes who was throwing incomplete on 4th-and-27 with the game hanging in the balance with just over a minute left.

This time it was the Chiefs coming out on the winning end of six field goals. Locked into the No. 3 seed and possibly in rest mode next week, I’m not sure if this was the performance they needed to get ready for what expects to be their most challenging postseason run of the Mahomes era.

But it was another Cincinnati season ending at Arrowhead as the Bengals (8-8) were eliminated Sunday. It is another AFC West title for the Chiefs, who stand alone in second place for the longest streak in NFL history with 8 straight division titles.

Cardinals at Eagles: Is It Matt Patricia?

No point in wasting all the narrative talk on a Week 17 recap on New Year’s, but let’s just say the 2023 Eagles could be a good case study in not overlooking a team that loses both coordinators.

I loved Arizona ATS (got up to +12) this week, because I’ve been saying for many weeks how the Eagles aren’t playing like a team with their record should be. I think many of us didn’t know until recently that Matt Patricia was hired to consult the defense this year, and let’s just say he isn’t Jonathan Gannon for them with recent reports of the Eagles’ players wanting to self-scout more on defense. That’s only led to giving up a game-winning touchdown drive to Drew Lock in Seattle, having to fight off a high-scoring comeback attempt from Tyrod Taylor and the Giants on Christmas, and now this pathetic 35-31 loss to Arizona that should go down as the worst loss in the Nick Sirianni-Jalen Hurts era so far.

The Eagles led 21-6 at halftime too, but that was mostly thanks to an incredible 99-yard pick-6 by rookie Sydney Brown. The Cardinals moved the ball extremely well in this game but stalled out on their first-half drives. They wouldn’t be stopped after halftime, going on touchdown drives of 75, 77, 77, and 70 yards. In fact, the only drive in the game by Arizona (8 drives) that didn’t gain at least 43 yards was the 9-yard drive before halftime, and that’s only because it started with 16 seconds left. This was an absolute shredding and one of the best performances by any offense this season, pick-6 withstanding.

That’s also why the Cardinals held the ball for nearly 40 minutes and doubling up the Eagles on that front. James Conner led a great ground attack (221 team yards rushing) and even caught a one-handed touchdown from Kyler Murray, who was 25-of-31 for 232 yards.

The Cardinals tied the game at 28 with 5:26 left, then did a surprise onside that failed with a penalty for lining up offsides. I’m still not convinced that needed to be done. The Philly offense is inevitable with 1 yard to go, but a long field is a different story.

The Cardinals caught some breaks along the way after that like an injury stopping the clock at 5:08. Then after a holding penalty on the Eagles made it 1st-and-20, Philly went incredibly conservative with back-to-back designed runs with Hurts that only gained 1 net yard to make it 3rd-and-19. At that point you’re basically settling for a short play and field goal, which is what they did. It was 31-28 with 2:33 left, and the Cardinals still had 2 timeouts as the Eagles did a terrible job of killing clock.

Arizona faced little resistance on the ensuing drive, and Conner finished it off with a 2-yard touchdown run with 32 seconds left to make it 35-31. Going 75 yards in 32 seconds without a timeout is asking for a miracle from any offense, and the game ended with Hurts’ Hail Mary from the 49 getting intercepted in the end zone.

With the Cowboys winning on Saturday night and expected to beat Washington next week, that means the NFC East is expected to go to Dallas. The Eagles were 10-1 with a win in hand over the 8-3 Cowboys just over a month ago.

What a disastrous slide this is turning out to be, but it wasn’t all that unpredictable to see. Sure, blowing it to Drew Lock with Hurts having a quasi-flu game was rough and unexpected, and Arizona definitely didn’t look like an offense ready to drop 35 points on 8 drives in this one.

But before you think I’m going to bring up the breaks the Eagles needed to beat Dallas, Kansas City and Buffalo in consecutive weeks, keep in mind the Eagles were the team that needed to rally twice against Washington and made Sam Howell look like Steve Young in his prime. Again, that happened twice this year.

Repeating is hard. Sure, the Chiefs just won the AFC West for the 8th year in a row, but good luck on the conference. But in the NFC East, there has not been a repeat division champion since the Eagles did it in 2001-04.

That’s looking like it will continue, and the Eagles have no one to blame but themselves. Seriously, Matt Patricia? Silent Bob with a pencil he stole from Belichick’s office?

Steelers at Seahawks: The Streak Continues

By improving to 9-7, Mike Tomlin has helped the Steelers extend their streak of non-losing seasons to 20 with a surprisingly high-scoring 30-23 win in Seattle. This was more like the performance I thought the Steelers would have in Indianapolis a few weeks ago (but with fewer points), but now they can only hope that Indy loss doesn’t doom them for the playoffs.

It just sums up the annoying thing about Tomlin’s team in that he can beat the Bengals as a home underdog last week, he can win this game as a 4.5-point road underdog when Seattle needed it badly too, but it comes after blowing home games to the 2-win Patriots and Cardinals in the same week. It comes after getting picked apart by Gardner Minshew and backup runners in Indy.

Now it sets up a match where they might lose to Baltimore’s backups, which is going to look bad, or they can beat them, which is taking advantage of a gift that still may not be enough for them to get in the tournament.

But that’s next week. As for this game, well, it presents another conundrum/annoyance as Mason Rudolph has now led the Steelers to back-to-back games with 30 points, something Kenny Pickett hasn’t done twice in his career period. Rudolph played fairly mistake-free football, handled some bad snaps from center well, and gave his receivers, namely George Pickens, chances to make plays. He was 18-of-24 for 274 yards, very good numbers by a Pittsburgh quarterback for the second week in a row.

The Steelers also piled up 468 yards of offense, their most since the 2020 season. I was skeptical of last week because of the big YAC plays from Pickens and the recent ownership of that Cincinnati defense, but this was an NFC opponent and it wasn’t a fluke.

The Steelers also got there because of a strong running game with Najee Harris providing one of his best games ever with 122 yards on the ground, and he could have scored 3 touchdowns if he wanted before going down to end the game.

The offense was legit in this one. The defense did enough to keep Geno Smith and company out of the end zone after halftime. In a 24-17 game in the fourth quarter, the Steelers held the Seahawks to another field goal, which the Steelers matched. Smith played well, but sometimes all it takes is one quick edge pressure to change a season, and this time it wasn’t T.J. Watt who provided it for Pittsburgh. Rookie Nick Herbig made his play of the season with a strip-sack of Smith, and that led to a field goal and essentially set up a less dramatic ending after Pete Carroll called one of the worst challenges ever to waste one of his precious timeouts with 5:49 left.

That mattered because the Seahawks took just too long to score another field goal, making it at 2:01 left, and then not recovering the onside kick at 2:00 to lose out on another clock stoppage. The Steelers came out aggressive with a 24-yard throw to Pickens, then Harris ended it on the ground and did not take the bait to score a touchdown he didn’t need.

Crushing loss for the Seahawks, who may only finish with the same record as last year (9-8) and that’s not always good enough for the tournament. Can a Pittsburgh team playing like this pull off an upset in Buffalo or Miami if they were the No. 7 seed? Yeah, I actually think it’s possible now. But they have to continue with Rudolph at quarterback as he gives them a more aggressive style that brings out more in the wide receivers.

Lose next week with Rudolph and that makes it rather simple to go back to Pickett next year. But if they actually pull this off and get in behind Rudolph? Good luck sorting this mess out for next year (besides shipping Mitch Trubisky out the door). I guess everyone is just waiting for the other shoe to drop with this Rudolph run, but I have to say he looks better than he did in the past.

He looks better than Pickett ever has.

Patriots at Bills: Zapped in Buffalo

Again, let’s get Bill Belichick the hell out of New England and with a team that has a solid quarterback, because he can still coach defense. Josh Allen and the Bills, in a very important game, really struggled to move the ball in this rematch. They basically had one good drive for a touchdown to start the second half, but before that, the Bills were sitting on 20 points thanks to a series of short fields and a pick-six. The 13 offensive points covered a total of just 42 yards.

How does that happen? The generous New England offense had 4 turnovers, including a trio of interceptions thrown by Bailey Zappe. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but it’s possible this was a game Mac Jones would have won. He already had his best game of the year against Buffalo in a 29-25 win, the 29 points being a season-high in scoring for New England.

Zappe did have a nice 18-yard touchdown run, but he dug a big hole early despite getting the gift of a kickoff return touchdown to begin the game. Down 27-21 in the fourth quarter, all New England could do was go 3-and-out from deep in its own end with 5:02 left.

The Bills weren’t about to let a repeat of last time happened, and they finally put together their other good offensive drive of the day by running out the clock by picking up 3 more first downs.

The job’s not finished but the Bills escaped this one, which would have been an embarrassing sweep on the resume for Sean McDermott.

Saints at Buccaneers: Baker and Bowles’ Pumpkin Bowl

Not all is lost for Tampa as a road win against the lowly Panthers (2-14) is all it will take next week to win the NFC South. But you really don’t want to leave it to that, especially when the sting of blowing that game will be even worse and possibly cost Todd Bowles his job, and make the team reconsider if Baker Mayfield is really “the guy” beyond this year.

This team was playing well but laid a total egg at home in this one. When Taysom Hill is catching 22-yard touchdown passes and you’re still sitting on 0 points nearly halfway through the fourth quarter, something went terribly wrong.

Not only did Mayfield get picked twice, but the skill players coughed up a pair of fumbles, including an inexplicable one by Trey Palmer to erase a 54-yard play with 3:36 left. But down 23-7, the game was already in hopeless territory. The Bucs did end up getting it back and scoring quickly but did not recover the onside kick. Also botched the 2-point conversion, so it was still 23-13.

I will say props to Derek Carr for playing a clean game on the road in a must-win situation far as the division title goes. But we’ll just have to see if it’s too late for the Saints as the Bucs get the easier matchup next week with Carolina.

49ers at Commanders: A Little Close for a 17-Point Win

This game was definitely not what I was planning to see. I wanted to see Jacoby Brissett start for Sam Howell, who was abysmal in recent weeks, but Brissett was injured and unable to go. Howell only threw for 169 yards and had a couple of picks in the second half.

But I also thought the Commanders would be getting destroyed by play-action bombs to wide-open guys like they’ve done against other teams all year. Instead, Brock Purdy had an efficient game but was only able to throw 2 touchdown passes, including a nice extended play to Brandon Aiyuk, who finished with 114 yards.

That score made it 27-10 in the fourth quarter and gave the 49ers (-14) the cover, but it was a little uncomfortable there with Chrisitan McCaffrey on the sideline with an injury. The 49ers ran the ball a lot (39 times for 184 yards) and it was successful, but no touchdown for McCarthy this week and he didn’t finish the game, so that’s not great news.

But the 49ers did wrap up the top seed after the Eagles choked.

Rams at Giants: Mason Crosby’s Arthritis Picked a Bad Time to Flare Up

The Rams keep winning and have this nice new collection of skill players that they are thriving with, but they sure do not make it easy in putting games away the last few weeks. After taking a 20-10 lead in the third quarter, they gave up big plays to Tyrod Taylor and the Giants, Matthew Stafford threw a pick, the Rams missed a key extra point after Kyren Williams’ third touchdown run, and the special teams struck again when they gave up a 94-yard punt return touchdown with 3:27 left.

I get why the Giants would go for it after a penalty put the ball at the 1, but Taylor and Saquon Barkley were just not in sync on what should have been an easy pitch and catch for the go-ahead score.

But the conservative Sean McVay played right into another team’s hands in a 26-25 game with two runs and a sack for a quick three-and-out. Taylor is 4-22-1 at comeback opportunities in his career, and this could have been a rare win for him after driving into field goal range.

But after Taylor’s 31-yard scramble, the Giants messed up by playing for the long kick instead of being more aggressive to get closer. They settled for a 54-yard field goal, and 39-year-old kicker Mason Crosby, who only was playing his second game this season with the team, had to come on for that long attempt in the cold air. He’s used to the elements of course from Green Bay, but he was jobless until this month for a reason. That old leg never stood a chance, and he was wide left with 30 seconds left. Game over.

The Rams survived another one and are in the playoffs. Let’s hope they get to go to Detroit for that wild card game, but I don’t believe it’s set in stone yet.

Raiders at Colts: Guess Kansas City was the Vegas Super Bowl

Aidan O’Connell was able to complete some passes after the first quarter this week, including two touchdowns to Davante Adams, who looked like a vintage version of himself with an incredible grab on 4th down with 43 seconds left to make it 23-20.

But that was too little too late as the Raiders were not able to recover the onside kick. The Raiders had their chances in this one and did have 26 first downs on offense (10 more than the Colts). But Gardner Minshew hit a couple of 50-yard passes that were enough to put touchdowns on the board for Indy, who now just has to beat Houston at home for the playoffs this Saturday night.

Titans at Texans: DeMeco Ryans’ Defense Dominates Again

C.J. Stroud returned to the Texans, but the defense stole the show this time. The defense already played very well against the Titans in Week 15’s 19-16 win in overtime where a pick-6 was included in the scoring for Tennessee.

This time the defense was even better, holding the Titans to 3 points and returning a fumble from Will Levis for a touchdown. They knocked Levis out of the game and kept pounding Ryan Tannehill with 5 sacks. It was an all-around strong 26-3 win for the Texans, who will be in Indy for a huge game this Saturday night.

Falcons at Bears: Dome Team in Flurries

Maybe the closest thing to a snow game this regular season, the Falcons froze up in Chicago after a poor start. They trailed 14-0, Younghoe Koo botched two field goals he’d usually make, and it didn’t get much better from there with the Bears dropping 37 points on this defense thanks to some short fields in the second half.

The quarterback situation is officially toast in Atlanta after Tayor Heinicke completed 10-of-29 passes with 3 picks. Desmond Ridder relieved him and also threw a pick. Just an all-around mess that leaves Atlanta with the third-best odds to win the division, and this might soon be the end for Arthur Smith.

Panthers at Jaguars: No Lawrence, No Problem

Trevor Lawrence’s long list of injuries finally led to him missing the first game of his NFL career. But if you thought (like me) that the Panthers would build on last week’s offensive success and maybe steal one against a struggling Jacksonville team, you were way off.

The Panthers were absolutely abysmal on offense in the 26-0 loss as Bryce Young passed for just 112 yards and lost 45 more on sacks. C.J. Beathard was solid enough in Lawrence’s place, and Travis Etienne broke off a 62-yard touchdown run early in the third quarter to make it 16-0 and basically wrap things up there.

The Jaguars are 9-7 just like the Colts and Texans but still have the inside track to win the AFC South.

Packers at Vikings: Sunday Night Blowout

I think Kevin O’Connell screwed up in benching Nate Mullens in favor of rookie Jaren Hall. This was a must-win game to stay alive for the playoffs, and while Mullens is ridiculous with the interceptions, he moves the ball at a good rate. He could have done some damage against a struggling defense like Green Bay’s and on a night where the Vikings really needed the offense.

But Hall had a lousy first half, and by the time O’Connell benched him for Mullens, it was already 23-3, too big a hole to dig out of. Jordan Love had a big night with 4 total touchdowns as the offense basically did whatever it wanted against Minnesota’s defense, making up for that season-low 10 points in Week 8’s loss to the Vikings.

Green Bay (8-8) makes the playoffs with a win over the Bears next week, which is surprisingly a game we won’t see in prime time.

Chargers at Broncos: And No One Cared

It’s hard to take much interest in what the Broncos (now eliminated) are doing after this ridiculous Russell Wilson story came out this week and the team benched him for Jarrett Stidham.

But it’s good to know that Chargering has no limitations. In this one alone, the Chargers fumbled in a 13-6 game to start the fourth quarter (Austin Ekeler this time), had a 50-yard field goal blocked, and couldn’t recover an onside kick that Denver bobbled for a brief moment to end it 16-9. Ho-hum, both teams are literally onto 2024 with the other AFC outcomes eliminating Denver.

Next week: Lots of playoff scenarios, but some of the main ones are can the Packers close at home in Week 18 this year to make the playoffs, can the Steelers beat Baltimore’s backups (?) on Saturday, how does C.J. Stroud handle a quasi-playoff game on the road in prime time, does Dallas have a road choke in Washington for the second year in a row, could the Eagles even make it pay off against the Giants if Dallas did, and why is there more pressure on Buffalo than Miami to win this game to end this regular season from hell?

And next Sunday night is when I go back and review my preseason predictions, which may not be good (thanks for 4 snaps, Aaron Rodgers), but I did pick Baltimore to win the No. 1 seed and Super Bowl.

NFL Week 17 Predictions: All Eyes on Baltimore Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Whether it was by luck or skill, the NFL has put together quite a great Week 17 schedule for the last bit of narrative building before next week’s finale is all divisional rematches.

You get an excellent choice for Saturday night between the Lions and Cowboys, two teams still competing for a lot in the NFC. We get to see if Dallas is going to simply revert to looking unbeatable at home after a couple of tough road losses. That won’t do them any good in the playoffs if they have to travel every week, and maybe they could even end up in Detroit, a team that’s clinched the NFC North and is now looking for that first playoff win since beating the 1991 Cowboys. This is a big game for them to show how good they are in this NFC.

I’d prefer the big one in Baltimore to be a 4:25 kickoff, but for a change we get a monster game at 1 p.m. on a Sunday. This one has everything from control of the No. 1 seed to the MVP race to Tyreek Hill also pursuing 2,000 yards. Miami is 2-0 against the Ravens since 2021 thanks in part to beating them deep on passes. There was that wild 42-38 comeback win last year, literally the only time Mike McDaniel has beat a quality road opponent in his career. It was also arguably the best game of Lamar Jackson’s career, and we’ll see if he can come close to anything like that again as his stats are not up to par for the MVP he is favored to win. We’ve seen teams falter immediately after getting praised all year, and everything is turning up Baltimore right now. This game has a chance to clean up so many narratives going into the final week.

Later in the afternoon, you’d normally expect big things from Bengals-Chiefs and that growing rivalry, but it is a little different now that the Bengals don’t have Joe Burrow and are in some trouble for the playoffs. But it is still an important game, and the Chiefs need to show up after last week’s embarrassing effort. If the Chiefs lose this game, the Bengals will have the same 9-7 record and a H2H win to boot. Fortunately for the Chiefs they are playing in the division known for firing coaches and trying to bench a QB at the midseason point after a big win. But this one still has some drama to it. Can Mahomes rebound? Can Travis Kelce step up against the worst defense against tight ends? Is Jake Browning some hidden gem when he’s not playing the Steelers, and can he pull out another 3-point win for the Bengals over the Chiefs? I’m still interested in this one.

This Week’s Articles

NFL 2023 Year in Review: The Unstable Quarterback Position in a Changing League – My epic 7,500 word review of the year that was 2023 for the quarterback position. I touch on all 32 teams and everything from the rash of injuries to Patrick Mahomes’ struggles to the way Tua and Brock Purdy are destroying the discourse, forcing Lamar and Hurts into MVP by team record, the disastrous 2021-22 drafts, the rookie class led by C.J. Stroud, if anyone is actually thriving this year, and what if Joe F’n Flacco has another Super Bowl run in him for the Browns?

NFL Week 17 Predictions

What an odd game on Thursday night. I had Browns winning 20-10 and they about blew that total out of the water by the first quarter. But despite 51 points in the first half, there wasn’t a single touchdown after halftime.

DET-DAL: The spread was originally Dallas -6, which I was liking Detroit for. But the closer it gets to Dallas, the more I think the Cowboys win by a touchdown at home. Should be a good one though, but just keep in mind games with a total over 50 points this year have seen the under go 10-1.

MIA-BUF: For the big one, I think the Ravens are legitimate and the Dolphins are paper tigers. Miami struggles to score against teams like this, and the Ravens have the No. 1 defense. Baltimore avenges the blown lead last year and wins this one.

Bills avoid a NE sweep but it’s hard to trust them to make anything look easy right now. They nearly blew it against Easton Stick last week.

Probably will avoid TEN-HOU. Titans blew a 13-point lead a couple of weeks ago but struggled to score on the Texans. C.J. Stroud is back. Trusting Houston there.

Raiders are showing me something on defense to think they can get after Gardner Minshew and make that one interesting. Need to complete some passes on offense though.

Hedging on CAR-JAX with Trevor Lawrence expected to miss his first NFL game due to injury. C.J. Beathard is hard to trust, Bryce Young is coming off his best game, and the Jaguars are struggling. Should be interesting and I expect the worst given my AFC South futures bet from before the season.

Do the Eagles ever win by 12 points these days? Arizona was the only team to push them in the 4Q during their dominant 8-0 start in 2022. Hoping for a repeat and a James Conner TD run.

Bucs are simply outplaying the Saints and I think they take control of the division with a sweep there.

PIT-SEA is a perfect game for the wild card races as neither team really belongs in the tournament, but someone is getting to 9-7 here. I have a parlay in my Scott’s Seven Picks that sees a game decided by 1-4 points either way.

I don’t know if it will be by exactly 3 points again, but I do think Bengals push the Chiefs in a good game. Still taking KC to pull it out.

Football Gods are chiming in with a middle finger to Sean Payton and the Broncos for the Russell Wilson treatment. I’ll take Easton Stick over Jarrett Stidham.

I really wanted to see 2023 end with Nick Mullens passing for 500 yards, 7 TDs, and 5 INTs against a Joe Barry defense, but I guess we’ll have to settle for Jaren Hall lighting it up instead.

See you in 2024, but first let’s win something big since this damn goofy regular season is almost over.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 17

~ Scott ~ 5 Comments

I have been warning people for weeks about how shaky and fraudulent this NFC is. On Sunday, the top three teams almost all lost, but the 49ers were able to pull one out in overtime because the Raiders are just that creative at losing games under Josh McDaniels.

But the Eagles lost for the second week in a row, and Minnesota’s close-game magic is still intact after another ass-kicking. This time it was at the hands of Green Bay, which just has to win at home against Detroit to make the playoffs again.

Great job, NFC. Even when Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are playing the least-inspiring football of their careers, you can’t drive the stake through the heart and rid yourselves of them. The Buccaneers won the NFC South again as expected, but you won’t believe how many close games the Panthers have lost in the fourth quarter going back to 2018 now. Scroll down to the second game recap for the answer.

Blowouts were up this week, and only seven games featured a comeback opportunity. Let’s just hope that means they are saving a classic finish for Monday night when the Bills meet the Bengals. I strongly believe more now than at any point this season that the best postseason result is to see that three-way battle play out in the AFC with the Bills/Chiefs/Bengals and the last one standing takes on the 49ers in the Super Bowl.

But that might be too much trust in the team that nearly lost to Jarrett Stidham on a wild Sunday.

This season in Stat Oddity:

49ers at Raiders: The Purdy-Stidham Shootout We Never Knew We Needed

It was just last week when I said I was getting bored already of the Brock Purdy-led 49ers. Bored of the wire-to-wire wins. Bored of the defense being great. Show me what happens if he has to win a high-scoring game or come back late. Show me if he can bounce back from a mistake. Give me as much info as possible before the playoffs to see how he might handle different situations, because things are not always going to be this easy.

Well, little did I expect one of the season’s best shootouts to come between Purdy and Jarrett Stidham, the latter making his first NFL start in place of the benched Derek Carr. If you told someone in August this would be a Week 17 game, they would assume both teams had horrible seasons and injuries.

Well, there have been injuries, and the Raiders are having a horrible season. But they are undeniably the most creative team at finding ways to lose. The Raiders have now blown six fourth-quarter leads this year, and this was the fifth time they have blown a double-digit lead.

But the finish to this one was wild with almost every drive ending in a turnover or score. Just when you thought the 49ers would pull away after a well-designed YAC play, the Raiders would hold them or answer with their own big play.

Even after the 49ers took a 34-27 lead with 2:17 left, Stidham confidently led the team right down the field to tie. Davante Adams made an incredible catch for 45 yards, keeping the ball from hitting the ground. Adams definitely helped Stidham a lot, but it’s not like Carr played without Adams this year. I’m not sold Carr could have repeated this Stidham performance, throwing for 365 yards and three touchdowns and taking a top-ranked defense to 34-34 in overtime.

But it really should not have gone to overtime. Purdy locked onto Brandon Aiyuk all the way down the field, and even got away with a pop-up ball after he was hit to get another completion to Aiyuk to set up a field goal. But before you could think about crowning a new LOAT, Robbie Gould badly missed a 41-yard field goal wide right. We’d go to overtime where the Raiders won the coin toss. Again, not LOAT material.

But then the other shoe dropped as Stidham was intercepted and the ball was returned to the Las Vegas 7. Purdy came out and took a knee, because otherwise I wouldn’t be giving any credit for a game-winning drive. Gould then redeemed himself with a 23-yard field goal to win it 37-34.

Incredibly, the game of the day’s overtime finish was seen by very few around the country because of absurd NFL broadcasting rules. It is 2023 now, so I’m not sure how that can still happen.

I felt denied the chance to see the Raiders blow another one in real time. But this was definitely right up there with Marcus Mariota vs. P.J. Walker (37-34 in Week 8) as the unexpected shootout of the season.

Panthers at Buccaneers: The Inevitable NFC South Outcome

It may have taken 17 weeks and sunk to lows few could have imagined, but the 2022 NFC South race is over, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won the division title for the second year in a row. Just like we expected.

It took another double-digit comeback in the fourth quarter and three Sam Darnold turnovers to pull it off, but you couldn’t say same old 2022 Bucs in this game. This was different as Tom Brady played his best game of the season, and really one of the best of his career in the 30-24 win.

When these teams met in Week 7, Mike Evans dropped a long touchdown pass on the first drive despite being wide open. When I saw that, I figured they were going to kill Carolina that day, but the blunder seemed to set a tone for the rest of the day, and the Bucs never pulled themselves out of it and lost 21-3 in a shocker. Since then, the team’s play has been so poor offensively that we are just used to seeing this now. They win after defenses get tired in the fourth quarter and they can go hurry-up just like they did in Arizona last week.

But Sunday was different. Even when Carolina took a 14-0 lead early, it’s not like they were making Brady play poorly, which is always the most surefire way to beat him. You are not going to rely on winning a shootout at the end or making his teammates screw up. You beat him by beating him down and making him play like shit. This has been the case since 2001. Chris Godwin fumbled a pass on the opening drive for the Bucs, but they didn’t fall apart this time after a first-drive mistake. Ryan Succop also failed on three different kicks on the day.

Evans not only made up for Week 7, but he took full advantage of the secondary not having corner Jaycee Horn (wrist surgery) by constantly getting open down the same right sideline and catching three touchdowns to go along with 207 yards in maybe the best game of his career.

When the Bucs fell behind 21-10 in the fourth quarter, Evans was still the key target with touchdown catches of 57 and 30 to make the comeback and take a 24-21 lead. But Darnold had his chance to be the hero. He had two turnovers earlier in the game, snapping his streak of four straight games without an interception.

But Darnold’s defense sacked Brady on a third down, made him so angry he spiked the ball and drew a 5-yard penalty for delay of game, and Darnold was given 2:32 to deliver his own signature drive in the biggest game of his career.

It went about as well as you expect from a quarterback with a 3-14 record at fourth-quarter comebacks. On the very first snap, Darnold was sacked and stripped of the ball. The Bucs took over at the Carolina 6. Two plays later, Brady snuck in the touchdown for a 30-21 lead after Succop missed the extra point.

Carolina got a field goal to make it 30-24, but it did not recover the onside kick. Good timeout management helped the Panthers get the ball back with 26 seconds left, and it could have been in incredible field position after a bad snap on the punt. But the punter was able to pick the ball up and somehow gather himself to get off an incredible kick downed inside the 3. But a penalty negated that and there was a re-kick.

Still, that play really saved the day for Tampa as Carolina could have taken over 30 or 35 yards away from the lead. Instead, Darnold had to go 92 yards in 26 seconds without a timeout. Yeah, good luck. The lateral play to end it was one of the better attempts you’ll see, but it ultimately failed.

That was the end of the NFC South race. Brady finished with 432 yards on a reasonable 45 attempts this week. Darnold had 341 yards, but the three turnovers were costly. As expected, the vaunted Carolina running game was held in check with just 16 carries for 47 yards from the running backs this week.

So, you could say it was same old Panthers. The stench of Matt Rhule is hard to get out, but these issues have been going on even longer than his arrival in 2020.

  • The Carolina Panthers have lost 50 straight games when trailing in the fourth quarter.
  • Carolina’s last 4QC win was October 21, 2018 in Philadelphia, a wild one from a 17-0 deficit in a 21-17 win.
  • Since that day, the Panthers are 0-29 at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities, or the games where they had the ball, down 1-to-8 points.

This is an insane stretch spanning five seasons now. We just saw Tampa Bay the last two Sundays win a game after trailing by double digits in the fourth. You don’t need a Brady to do this. The next game up is Pittsburgh and rookie Kenny Pickett has marched down the field for a game-winning touchdown in back-to-back weeks.

Twenty-nine straight losses? It is absolutely embarrassing. Even the last game-winning drive for the Panthers was in 2019 in a game where Kyle Allen threw an incomplete pass in a 10-10 game against Houston on the first play of the fourth quarter, then Joey Slye made a 55-yard field goal for a 13-10 lead in a 16-10 win. Not exactly the stuff of legends.

I have no idea if Brady will retire again or try to join another team, but since the 49ers don’t need him, he would be crazy to leave this NFC South. It is the gift that keeps on giving, and since the race still turned out to be this close, don’t be surprised if his new Three Stooges decide to not make wholesale changes for 2023.

Brady can win the South again with a sad record, host a playoff game, and who knows what can happen when you have this many Perennial NFC Pissants who can implode in January when you are talking about the Packers, Vikings, Cowboys, Eagles, and 49ers.

He will never go back to the AFC when he has this advantage in the NFC.

Steelers at Ravens: Latest Prime-Time Chapter in the Rivalry Delivers

Steelers-Ravens is the only division rivalry in the NFL where the teams can play entertaining games despite neither reaching 20 points. They did it again Sunday night in a 16-13 classic after Kenny Pickett delivered a game-winning touchdown pass in the final minute for the second week in a row.

Pickett did very little before that last drive, but it was that kind of game with the Steelers rushing for nearly 200 yards with Najee Harris (111) going over 100 for the first time this season.

Baltimore killed the Steelers on the ground in Week 14, but Pittsburgh did a better job holding them to 120 yards in this game, 95 fewer than last time. Pickett also avoided the three interceptions that Mitch Trubisky threw in that 16-14 loss.

The Steelers had a rough sequence on defense late in the first half when Cam Heyward was called for a ridiculous flag at the bottom of a pile that ended up costing the Steelers four points on a late touchdown pass when it should have been fourth down and a field goal attempt. But the defense stepped up in the second half and gave Pickett enough chances to get it done again in the fourth quarter.

The third chance was the charm, starting with 4:16 left at the Pittsburgh 20. Pickett had three big completions on the drive, including a 28-yard completion at the two-minute warning. But he saved his best play for the third-and-8 when it looked like the Steelers would never crack the end zone after settling for field goals all night. Pickett escaped pressure and improvised to find Harris in the end zone for a 10-yard touchdown with 56 seconds left to take a 16-13 lead. Minkah Fitzpatrick was able to put the game away with an interception off Tyler Huntley with 13 seconds left.

What Pickett has done the last two weeks is incredible in the rarity of it all. Maybe it deserves a tiny asterisk because of how historically bad the Raiders and Ravens are in 2022 at holding these leads. Yes, this technically is another double-digit blown lead after halftime for the Ravens, who led 13-3 in the third quarter.

But just consider how infrequently the other great quarterbacks of this century have pulled off what Pickett has done two weeks in a row now, and that is lead a game-winning touchdown drive in the final 5:00 when only a touchdown would do (trailing 4-6 points).

Game-winning TD drives led in final 5:00 of 4Q in career (down 4-6 points)

  • Tom Brady – 9 (2002 CHI, 2007 BAL, 2009 BUF, 2013 NO, 2013 CLE, 2017 PIT, 2021 NYJ, 2022 LAR, 2022 NO)
  • Drew Brees – 4 (2002 KC, 2010 DAL, 2016 SD, 2018 PIT)
  • Peyton Manning – 3 (1998 NYJ, 2006 NYJ, 2009 NE)
  • Aaron Rodgers – 3 (2012 DET, 2014 MIA, 2018 CHI)
  • Patrick Mahomes – 2 (2020 ATL, 2022 LAC)
  • Ben Roethlisberger – 2 (2009 GB, 2010 BAL)
  • Kenny Pickett – 2 (2022 LV, 2022 BAL)

In the last two games, Pickett has already matched the career total of such drives from his predecessor, Ben Roethlisberger. Pickett and Mahomes are also the only quarterbacks on this little list who were able to notch a second before their seventh season as a starter.

After starting 2-6, the Steelers (8-8) are just one home win against Cleveland away from a 9-8 record, extending to a 19th straight season without a losing record. Pittsburgh actually was in more dire of a situation last year when it snuck into the playoffs in the final week. But even if the Steelers do not make it back this year, they are building something for the future here.

Saints at Eagles: Agents of Chaos

There is little rhyme or reason to the Saints since Drew Brees retired. They have destroyed Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady while getting destroyed by Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold in other games. They’ve been involved in three shutouts since last December, winning two of them. They gave up 40 points in Philadelphia last year but cut that in one fourth on Sunday.

These Saints are merely agents of chaos, and now that they are eliminated from the playoffs, all they can do is throw a real wrench in the NFC standings. This 20-10 win in Philadelphia is the latest in unexpected results for these Saints. Even though Andy Dalton took six sacks and threw a pick, he still outplayed Gardner Minshew, who also took six sacks in the game.

But trailing 13-10 in the fourth quarter, Minshew threw a pick-six after Marshon Lattimore (back in the nick of time) jumped a route for an easy score with 5:27 left. Minshew could then only gain half of the yards needed on a fourth-and-22, and the Saints were able to run out the final 3:35 on the clock.

The Saints held the ball for 37 minutes and had a huge advantage in plays early in the game in building a 13-0 lead. A.J. Brown taking advantage of a blown coverage for a 78-yard touchdown was seemingly going to get the Eagles right back into it at 13-10 going into the fourth, but the Eagles were scoreless on their final four drives.

Even the vaunted QB push sneak was stuffed at midfield with 8:32 left in the fourth quarter. It’s not so much that Minshew did a poor job with it that Jalen Hurts would have done better, but the Eagles just rushed the whole play despite it being a big moment. They got zero push, and Minshew was just stopped cold for no gain. Maybe the stronger, more athletic Hurts gets more out of it, but it was poorly managed and rushed by my view. I do not believe good things happen on the sneak when you rush it and no one on the line is really dug in.

Last week it was the four turnovers that did the Eagles in, and almost none of that was Minshew’s fault. This week it was the one turnover, but it was on him and it was a crucial pick-six. The Eagles also lost one of their double-digit sack defenders (Josh Sweat) to a scary injury, but he says he will be back this season. Still, injuries are really piling up at the worst moment for this team.

It seemed like a foregone conclusion in October that the Eagles would be the No. 1 seed this year, but now they could be the No. 5 seed if they do not finish the job here. I think they beat the Giants, who really have nothing to play for next week, and wrap up the No. 1 seed next week. But this is an extremely bumpy ending for a team that once looked like it had no major flaws.

Vikings at Packers: The Worst 12-Win Team Ever

If the 2022 Vikings aren’t winning a close game, they are getting their ass kicked in a game decided before halftime.

In a first quarter that took forever, the Packers were up 14-3 despite Aaron Rodgers having one successful dropback. The Vikings allowed a 105-yard kickoff return touchdown and a deflected Kirk Cousins pass on a fourth down was intercepted for a touchdown.

It basically just snowballed from there as the Vikings managed to miss a field goal and see the Packers turn that into a 56-yard field goal to take a 27-3 lead into the locker room.

A scramble touchdown by Rodgers put the Packers up 41-3 in the fourth quarter before the Vikings added two touchdowns in garbage time to bring their pathetic season scoring differential to minus-19 points – by far the worst for a 12-win team in NFL history.

Incredibly, even with Minnesota’s garbage time numbers, Justin Jefferson finished with one catch for 15 yards on five targets. I am not convinced these Packers are a legitimate threat in the playoffs, but they are improved from the team that started 3-6. With how shaky this NFC field is, the Packers can do something this year if they beat Detroit at home and get in next week. They control their destiny, and they will be underdogs in the playoffs for a change.

Let me stress something: THIS IS NOT 2010 AGAIN. That team was elite on both sides of the ball and lost a lot of close games, including two after a concussion for Rodgers. But the Packers are creating turnovers and doing a lot of things to win in ways that go far beyond Rodgers playing like a Hall of Fame quarterback.

I think they win next week and get in the tournament. Then… who knows with this NFC. These Vikings are still alive for the No. 2 seed and they are as fraudulent as it gets.

Broncos at Chiefs: Too Close for Comfort Again

Like a “choose your own adventure” book, NFL games can have plenty of different outcomes, and that may be extra true when it is a division rematch. Every week we try to pick the right narrative of how a game will unfold, and that’s what we end up betting on with our predictions.

Conventional wisdom would have said the Denver team that nearly came back from 27-0 down last time against these Chiefs would give them a hard time again after firing Nathaniel Hackett. Maybe the defense that intercepted Patrick Mahomes three times can do something similar.

But my idea was to go against conventional wisdom, which does often work in the NFL as this league is devoid of logic at times (see Jarrett Stidham vs. 49ers). I liked the Chiefs to blow Denver out this time, and for Travis Kelce to end his four-game scoring drought. Jerick McKinnon can’t keep catching touchdowns every week, can he?

As it turns out, this was more of the same from last time. Mahomes only threw one pick instead of three, but it was a bad one in the red zone that kept things close in the first half. Throw in your obligatory KC fumble coming on a punt return to give Denver a short-field touchdown, and Denver ended up with a couple leads in this game, including a 17-13 lead to start the fourth quarter.

But Mahomes found Blake Bell on the first play of the final quarter, and he did his best Kelce impersonation for a 17-yard touchdown to take the lead again. Kelce and Mahomes have not connected on a touchdown in five straight full games together for the first time. McKinnon even scored two more receiving touchdowns, becoming the first running back since Bill Dudley in 1947 to score a receiving touchdown in five straight games.

After a terrible Russell Wilson interception, McKinnon’s second score seemed to give the Chiefs a comfy edge at 27-17. But this Kansas City defense is an adventure in itself. Wilson was able to overcome a fourth-down interception with an illegal use of hands penalty, and he finished the drive with his second rushing touchdown to make it 27-24.

Wilson got the ball back with plenty of time to take the lead, and it looked like he might do it with the ball nearing midfield after the two-minute warning. But we might be starting to see the impact of Mahomes as teams are really taking their time against him, wary of the clock situation if they score too fast. The Broncos probably tried an ill-advised run on third-and-5, and that set up fourth-and-2.

Wilson took a sack by Chris Jones, but the referees sure did swallow their whistles for a long time instead of calling in the grasp. It’s as if they were baiting the Chiefs to forcibly throw Wilson down or do something to get a 15-yard penalty and automatic first down. Wilson even looked like he maybe got a throw off, but it goes down as a sack on fourth down.

Three plays later, Mahomes converted a third down to Kelce to ice another close call. But with 328 yards and three more touchdown passes, it will likely be enough for Mahomes to win MVP barring something unbelievable on Monday night and in the season finale against the Raiders. The Chiefs should be rooting hard for the Bengals on Monday night, because that is their best hope of getting the No. 1 seed. I do not see this team in the Super Bowl if they have to beat both the Bengals and Bills in the playoffs after their recent struggles with them. Can they beat one in Arrowhead? Sure. But I’ll fade them if they’re the No. 2 seed and they have to beat both, including (likely) Buffalo on the road in the AFC Championship Game.

The Chiefs are 13-3, but they have been slumming it with the likes of the Broncos and Texans in the last month. It would be nice to see them pound the Raiders in Vegas on Saturday, but as the 49ers showed this week, no game is a sure thing this season with the way these teams play week to week.

Conventional wisdom is dead.

Dolphins at Patriots: Oh, Teddy

Well, I guess I was wrong that the Dolphins would beat the Patriots without Tua Tagovailoa, who is 4-0 against New England. Tua did not lead the offense to many points or have great stats in those games, but he by and large avoided the big mistakes that a Bill Belichick team will feast on.

And that is where Teddy Bridgewater screwed everything up. Leading 14-10 late in the third quarter, Bridgewater threw an interception, possibly broke his finger, and took a stiff arm to the face on the return touchdown. It is the fourth straight game the Patriots have scored a defensive touchdown, which had not been done by a defense since the vaunted 2002 Buccaneers.

Miami never led again, and Bridgewater may not play again this season with the finger injury. That leaves third-string rookie Skylar Thompson as the last quarterback standing in Miami, losers of five straight.

Thompson had a couple cracks at a go-ahead drive, but he too threw an interception against Belichick’s defense. Eventually, Mac Jones threw a 1-yard touchdown pass to Jakobi Meyers, who redeemed himself by holding on after a tough landing to take a 23-14 lead with 4:37 left.

Miami eventually got the ball in the end zone to make it 23-21 with 1:04 left, but the Patriots recovered the onside kick to end the game. The Patriots are currently the No. 7 seed, but they are in a three-way tie with the Dolphins and Steelers at 8-8 for that last wild card spot. But the Dolphins have the easier draw next week with the Jets while the Patriots have to play a Buffalo team that could have varied degrees of motivation. The Steelers need both teams to lose, which is hardly impossible.

But quarterback injuries are definitely killing the Dolphins again, and it may prove to be the final nail in the coffin on a once promising season.

Browns at Commanders: Does He Know?

The Commanders (7-8-1) are eliminated from the playoffs after a 24-10 home loss to Cleveland, which saw Deshaun Watson lead as many touchdown drives in the second half (three) as he led in his first 18 quarters this season.

There was some pretty atrocious tackling and coverage on Amari Cooper in that half, but let’s get right to the elephant in the room. Ron Rivera blew this season by going back to Carson Wentz at quarterback. Why did he think that would work given Wentz’s history of poor play in big moments? Why did Taylor Heinicke deserve to get benched after a couple of turnovers on the road against the league’s best defense (49ers)?

Worse, Rivera sounded and looked like he genuinely did not know his team could be eliminated Sunday.

Yeah, you’re done, and Wentz might get you fired next like he did Doug Pederson in Philadelphia, and he had a hand in Frank Reich’s departure in Indy after blowing that shot at the playoffs last year.

This is who he is, and it only took him three snaps to throw his first of three interceptions in the game. Let this be the last straw for teams thinking they can fix Wentz.

Colts at Giants: Welcome Back to the Playoffs, New York

At least one New York team is ending its playoff drought. The Giants (9-6-1) are in and the No. 6 seed after a 38-10 beatdown of the Colts. It was the first time all season the Giants scored more than 27 points in a game. Daniel Jones had a field day with 91 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground and two more through the air.

The Giants dominated the Indy line as you’d expect, but if this game will be remembered for anything, it would be this absurd celebration by Giants rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux right next to an injured Nick Foles, who would leave the game.

Absolute bellend. It wasn’t even a snow game. And you would think after the eighth or so snow angel, the Colts may have retaliated, but protecting the quarterback has not been a priority from that group this year.

Jets at Seahawks: Geno Smith Ends New York’s Season

It is only fitting that Pete Carroll and Geno Smith would end the postseason hopes of the first NFL team to get rid of both. Frankly, I have no idea why Seattle was a home underdog in this one. The Jets looked cooked last week, and even if they went to Mike White, he’s not exactly a proven commodity. He threw an early pick and looked inaccurate for much of the game.

Kenneth Walker hit a 60-yard run on the first snap from scrimmage, and that opening-drive touchdown was technically enough to outscore the Jets, who lost 23-6 after more sacks and hits on White. The Jets (7-9) are eliminated from the playoffs after a 6-3 start.

The Jets apparently need to shop for another quarterback for 2023. Hey, do you think Seattle would part with Geno Smith?

Rams at Chargers: The No. 5 Seed Is Possible for Chargers

Apparently, the Rams are only interesting every other week under Baker Mayfield. His no-show in the passing game made for an uninteresting 31-10 Chargers win, the first time since November 2017 that the Chargers won back-to-back games by at least 17 points.

But if you give Justin Herbert a defense and a running game (30 carries for 190 yards against the Rams), then look out. The Chargers (10-6) could beat the AFC South winner in the wild card round if they can get that No. 5 seed from the Ravens.

Meanwhile, with an 11th loss, the Rams have secured the worst Super Bowl title defense season in history with a 5-11 record. We know they sold out the long-term for the short-term success, but 5-11 is still a surprising and disappointing outcome.

Bears at Lions: Detroit Stays Alive with Rout of Chicago

The Lions (8-8) are back to .500 after making short work of the Bears in a 41-10 blowout. It’s like watching two different sports with these teams. While both rushed for 200 yards, the Lions also got 255 passing yards out of Jared Goff with three more touchdown passes.

Justin Fields finished 7-of-21 for 75 yards while taking seven sacks for 45 yards. Sure, he rushed for 132 yards, but it led to 10 points when you only put up 30 net passing yards on 28 passing plays.

The Bears are the first NFL team to complete no more than 7 passes while allowing 40 points in a game since Jeff Fisher’s 2009 Titans lost 59-0 in New England. That was a snow game. This was in a dome against the No. 32 scoring and yardage defense.

But now it looks like the Bears can finish with the No. 32 scoring defense.

Jaguars at Texans: Meaningless Game Is Houston’s Worst of the Year

Welp, my worst pick of the week was thinking the Texans had some secret sauce against Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars after nine straight wins, including 3-0 in the Lawrence era.

As it turns out, Lawrence just needed a 62-yard Travis Etienne touchdown run (only play of drive) and a fumble return touchdown to score more than enough points to beat the lowly Texans.

Houston’s 31-3 loss is by far its worst of the season, surpassing the 18-point loss to the Raiders that happened after Houston blew a fourth-quarter lead.

But it did not matter what Jacksonville did in this one. It’s all about Week 18 against Tennessee for the AFC South title.

Cardinals at Falcons: Another One for Kliff to Thank the Players for Losing Close

Good luck to the Hard Knocks crew in trying to hype up the David Blough vs. Desmond Ridder battle in Week 17. It was actually not that poorly played of an NFL game with both offenses hitting 20 first downs, only one turnover on an aborted snap, and it was played in a tight, one-score window for 60 minutes with three lead changes in the last 10 minutes.

It’s just hard getting people to care about such a game at this point of the season given the low stakes. After the Cardinals took the lead on a 57-yard field goal from Matt Prater, rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder was able to lead the first game-winning drive of his career. Drake London didn’t fumble away a Ridder completion for a change, and the Falcons did a textbook job of milking the clock and getting as deep as possible for Younghoe Koo’s 21-yard field goal to win the game 20-19 with no time left.

It was like one of those close 2021 Atlanta wins when Ryan would use up the game clock for a field goal, denying the defense the chance to blow the lead again. The best way to do it, of course.

Next Week

  • Next week’s season finale? Let me just take in Bills-Bengals first.

NFL Week 17 Predictions: AFC Game of the Year Pt. 2 Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I was going to call this the “David Blough Edition” as we are at that point of the season where teams are just trotting out any quarterback they can to finish off the season.

But there is a legitimately massive game on Monday night between the Bills and Bengals. I’m looking forward to that one more than Sunday combined.

Some of this week’s articles:

NFL Week 17 Predictions

The Cowboys keep turning that ball over, but it was enough to get the cover in the final Thursday game of the season.

Putting together some of my favorite talking points from the articles above, here’s a parlay for the week:

NFL Week 17 Predictions: And I Don’t Feel Any Different Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

So this is the New Year?

With two weeks to go in the 2021 NFL regular season, I’m seeing a lot of the same shit in this season of fake parity. Despite all the teams still in contention with an extra game and extra playoff spot, we might see the same No. 1 seeds as last year (KC and GB), the same MVP winner (Aaron Rodgers), the same final four teams (KC-BUF-TB-GB), and maybe even the same Super Bowl (KC vs. TB) in February like I predicted before it all started.

That leaves two weeks to shake some things up. Which team in a good position right now is going to blow it by going 0-2 these last two weeks? Is it Cincinnati to lose the AFC North, or do the Chiefs slip up in Cincinnati tomorrow and make way for a weak No. 1 seed in Tennessee? Then again, the Titans could fall to Miami’s eighth win in a row after being left for dead at 1-7.

A little chaos would be welcomed after last year gave us the worst postseason I’ve ever seen, but the oddsmakers are not a big fan of the Week 17 matchups. as 75% of the games see a team favored to win by 6+ points.

My full-length previews at BMR include Giants-Bears, Cardinals-Cowboys, Vikings-Packers (before the Kirk Cousins COVID news), and Browns-Steelers.

A whopping five games have a spread of at least 12.5 points, tied with Week 16 of the 2009 season for the most such games in a week since 2001. It’s only the seventh week in the last 21 seasons with at least four such games.

I had a hard time finding upsets. I threw Ron Rivera a bone after last week’s embarrassment in Dallas. I did make the sentimental pick of Ben Roethlisberger winning his last home game against Cleveland, even if smart money says the Browns should run NIck Chubb all night, Baker Mayfield should play better than four picks, and the Steelers are just broken right now. But I couldn’t bring myself to go with Cleveland there.

Chiefs-Bengals is clearly the standout game in this slate, but I think the Bengals are getting a bit too much hype. Great, they continued Baltimore’s losing streak with a defense that is signing guys off the street. You know the playoffs are coming when “I’d take Joe Burrow over Patrick Mahomes for the next five years” are the latest takes on ESPN, the network that did everything it could to use rings and wins to say Tom Brady was the best QB in the league 17 years ago. Now they seem to jump on every bandwagon possible (Lamar, Herbert, Allen, Mac Jones) to knock down Mahomes. But with Travis Kelce back and the defensive improvement being real, I like the Chiefs in that one. But it could be a fun game.

Betting tip: Minnesota has played in 12 straight games decided by 1-8 points, two shy of tying the NFL record. With the inevitable news of Cousins getting COVID, the spread jumped from Packers -6.5 to Packers -13.5. So if you don’t want to touch the 13.5 with the uncertainty of a backup and Minnesota beating GB twice in a row, maybe an alternate line of Packers -8.5 is the best call in that one to end the close game streak for Minnesota.