The NFL’s Week 11 schedule is filled with familiarity. There are five division matches, including four rematches from earlier this year. We also have a game moved from Buffalo’s blizzard to Detroit as the Bills look to avoid a soul-crushing third loss in a row.
The Cowboys will try to end Minnesota’s absurd close-game winning streak for the third year in a row after pulling off comeback wins behind Andy Dalton and Cooper Rush the last two seasons.
The Saints will never get proper revenge for the 2018 NFC Championship Game over the Rams, but the two meet this week with the Rams at 3-6 and no Cooper Kupp.
Baker Mayfield gets to start another game against the Ravens for Carolina, and it’s the biggest spread of the week at 13 points. But it reminds me of this interesting and still true fact:
I also have an eye on how the Eagles handle their first loss of the season against the Colts, a team that would probably be a 20-point underdog if the Eagles were still undefeated and Sam Ehlinger was still the starting QB in Indy. But Jeff Saturday knew he had to get the Poor Man’s Peyton back in the lineup to have a shot with this team, so that is another interesting game tomorrow.
Plus we also have the Washington Commanders going from beating the team with the best record to facing the team with the worst record. It would be such a random NFL thing for this team to beat the undefeated Eagles and lose to the 1-7-1 Texans in the same week.
Some articles I did from another busy week:
- Is Kirk Cousins Done with Being Captain .500? My in-depth review of why the 8-1 Vikings don’t convince me that they’re a vastly improved team this year
- Week 11 Sunday props (me being nice about Derek Carr?)
- Upset Alert: Bears over Falcons
- Bengals vs. Steelers
- Eagles vs. Colts
- Panthers vs. Ravens
- Cowboys vs. Vikings (more on MIN’s 8-1 record being iffy plus why the Cowboys are favored)
- Week 11 parlay (+554 odds)
NFL Week 11 Predictions
At least Green Bay gave its fans four nights of thinking the season was still alive before that awful performance on Thursday night. It was just the second time in 37 games that Aaron Rodgers lost by more than seven points in a prime-time start at home.
I really like some of the underdogs to cover this week. One game I had no idea what to do with was MNF as it is uncertain who will be the quarterback for Arizona with Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy both injured. But it would be funny to see the 49ers blow that game because this is the sixth time Kyle Shanahan has come into a game with his career record at .500. He is 0-5 in those games and has never been above .500 as a head coach in the NFL. Is this finally the game that gets him over the hump?
I also want people to understand the crazy run Minnesota has been on. It’s in those articles linked above, but this team is 7-0 in close games and 5-0 at 4QC/GWD opportunities. If you go back to last postseason for Kevin O’Connell where he was the Rams offensive coordinator and they became the first team in history to win three straight playoff games by 3 points, that means he is on a personal streak of 10-0 in close games and 8-0 at GWD opportunities.
The 2022 Vikings can also become the first team in NFL history to win eight straight games by 1-to-8 points. They have tied the record by the 1996 Jaguars and 2020 Chiefs. Those Jaguars lost their eighth game, 20-6 in the AFC Championship Game in New England. Those Chiefs blew off Week 17 against the Chargers by resting starters to end their streak, technically won an eighth straight game under Patrick Mahomes by one possession against Cleveland in the playoffs (Mahomes left injured), then beat Buffalo by 14 in the AFC Championship Game before getting smoked 31-9 in the Super Bowl.
But what amuses me most about these Vikings is the scoring differential that ranks 94th out of 95 teams to start 8-1 since 1940. The only team below them (1976 Raiders) never lost another game and won the Super Bowl. The team above them (1987 Chargers) never won another game and missed the playoffs at 8-7 in that strike replacement game season.
Talk about two extremes. I don’t think the Vikings will follow either path, but it sure would be funny to see them finish 9-8 after an 8-1 start just to cement Cousins as the ultimate .500 QB.