We are running out of big games in this 2023 NFL regular season now that Bills-Chiefs and Bengals-Chiefs have lost a lot of luster. But we will get the NFC Game of the Year this Sunday in Philadelphia, and hopefully it can live up to what we saw last week with Bills-Eagles.
Having said that, I’ve been looking at the standings and remaining schedules and it’s not as big of a game as I’d like this weekend. Even if the Eagles lose at home to the 49ers, we still might see the Eagles finish No. 1, 49ers finish No. 2, and Cowboys stuck at No. 5 even if they finish 14-3, so that’s a bummer.
Basically, the 49ers need to win this game and hope the Cowboys take care of Philly next Sunday night in Dallas. That way if the 49ers win out and both teams finish 14-3, the 49ers get the top seed due to the head-to-head tiebreaker. Even if the 49ers, Eagles, and Cowboys were all 14-3 (it could happen), the 49ers would get it based on beating both while the Eagles would be 1-2 in those games and the Cowboys would be 2-1.
Cause I can’t see the Eagles losing to Seattle, Giants (twice), or Arizona after this stretch. Maybe Seattle if Geno Smith plays so well like he did Thursday night, but Dallas still won that game and Seattle may be on their way to an 8-9 finish and no postseason. So, it has to be the 49ers and Cowboys these next two weeks that stop Philly’s momentum as this team keeps winning almost every close game this year, a sharp contrast from the 49ers and Cowboys blowing teams out for the most part. (That’s your first hint which way I’m really leaning here as we are in #ReverseJinxSeason)
If the Eagles beat the 49ers, then it’s almost a lock going into Week 14 that it’ll be No. 1 Eagles, No. 2 49ers, and No. 5 Cowboys, so that would also make next week’s NFC East rematch less important. Basically, we need to blame the Chiefs and Bills for screwing up the last two weeks and not beating Philly to make this 3-team NFC race much more interesting if they all had 3 losses.
Final NFC note: I’m well aware the Lions are 8-3 too but I feel confident that team is of a lower caliber than these teams, and they will lose in Dallas, and maybe even lose a Vikings game to finish 12-5 at best. They shouldn’t interfere with my 1-2-5 seed predictions. Solidly No. 3 in the NFC, which is almost like winning a Super Bowl for the Lions.
I think the best outcome for the playoffs in the NFC would be Dallas crushing the NFC South winner, the weak wild cards losing to the No. 3 Lions and No. 2 49ers, who would then meet in the divisional round in a fresh matchup. The No. 5 Cowboys return to Philly to face the No. 1 Eagles first and see if they can knock them out, then maybe it’s another trip back to San Francisco to complete the revenge tour to get Dak Prescott, who is gaining steam for MVP, in the Super Bowl like I predicted before Week 1.
But the main thing is getting Cowboys-Eagles first instead of seeing Dallas lose to SF again and the Eagles only having to beat one of those teams in January.
This Week’s Articles
The 10 Greatest Field Goals in NFL History – Thanks to Jake Elliott’s 59-yard game-saving FG, I jumped on the chance to research the best FGs in NFL history and found that a few kickers are worthy of ranking twice on that list. But No. 1 is not up for debate.
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 13 – Got some good ones for SF-PHI, ARI-PIT, Prime-time unders, and Tyreek Hill’s pursuit of 2,000 yards against the No. 32 scoring defense.
- Computer Picks (BMR)
- Computer Picks (OT)
- Prime-Time Picks (BMR)
- Prime-Time Picks (OT)
- Best Bets (OT)
- Upset Alert: Eagles over 49ers – I basically said screw writing about CLE-LAR and let me preview the big game this week instead
- Player Props (BMR)
- Player Props (OT)
NFL Week 13 Predictions
Welp, I should have learned my lesson from TB-BUF to not bet on the final score for TNF this year. I nailed the props and TD scorers in this game, but screwed myself thinking Dallas was going to win by double digits and the Seahawks wouldn’t score over 17.5 points. They doubled that with 35 points in one of the most unexpected shootouts of the year.
But TNF hasn’t been that awful this year. It’s SNF and especially MNF where scoring goes to die this year, and I’m still making bets that way this week.
LAC-NE: I’m just taking a swing that the Chargers are going to commit a comedy of errors like they usually do against the Pats, and that Bailey Zappe gets Brandon Staley fired.
ARI-PIT: The Steelers have a chance to play really well at home against an overmatched opponent, but Kyler Murray is a veteran QB, something they have not faced recently. In other words, look for the Steelers to win a 24-20 nail-biter against a 2-win team. But I do like the rushing props in this one as it might rain Sunday.
DEN-HOU: Should be a one-score game. I’m still backing Houston but it’s a bummer tight end Dalton Schultz is out as I wanted to bet on him as I think C.J. Stroud gets his slots and seams receivers going this week.
DET-NO: I’m just counting on the Lions to get back on track and win by a TD. Could be a game where both teams score in the 20s if the Lions don’t start playing better offense, but we know the Saints settle for a lot of FGs with Carr at QB.
IND-TEN: I like the over more than picking the winner here. Titans usually score more at home and Hopkins and Moss went off in the last game that was more offensive than the 23-16 score suggests (low possession game).
ATL-NYJ: Could there be value again in betting on high reception totals for the Jets (Wilson/Conkln/Hall) if Tim Boyle is going to keep dinking and dunking? Scary proposition for an Atlanta defense that already lost to Levis/Dobbs/Kyler in a 3-week stretch. Not a game I’d put much on but Falcons should win a low-scoring game.
MIA-WAS: I think Sam Howell will throw a lot of passes and Tyreek Hill will have a lot of yards and score at least one touchdown. Firing Jack Del Rio was necessary but it’s hard to imagine a good game from the Washington defense here. But I think it could be a 31-24 game.
CAR-TB: Firing Frank Reich was kind of stunning given the timing, but they were playing awful football for him. Not sure that changes much this week. I like Rachaad White to find the end zone at least once.
SF-PHI: Think I’ve shared a lot on this game in the links above, but I do look at the 49ers as a front-running team that could play into Philly’s comeback hands in the second half. But my favorite bet is the over as I think it’ll look a lot different from the title game. I also think Jalen Hurts is going to struggle to throw for many yards for the 3rd week in a row, and it will come down to turnovers as it always does for these teams.
Since 2022, the 49ers are 23-1 when they have 0-1 giveaways and 0-7 when they have 2+ giveaways.
CLE-LAR: The return of Joe Flacco. God, we need to see him start a playoff game again. Get more data points on that. I think the Browns could upset this one for sure, but I hedged and took CLE ATS/LAR ML. But could see Myles Garrett and company getting after Stafford. Flacco is a wild card; not so much in thinking he will be great, but what degree of terrible could he be on short notice? Not a fun game to bet on.
KC-GB: When these teams played in 2021, it was the lowest-scoring game (20 total points) and fewest passing yards (166) of any game in Patrick Mahomes’ career that he started and finished. That gave me assurance to take the under, as did the season-long performance of these teams, and I also think it’s another spot for the Chiefs to win but opponent covers. Should be a good one that wasn’t looking so good a few weeks ago before Jordan Love started playing better.
CIN-JAX: Can I just get one Evan Engram TD in 2023? Even if it’s a 24-13 game, let’s just see a little more action than that garbage game the Vikings and Bears played last week.
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 