I’m trying to keep my patience with these passing offenses, but it’s still wild to see NFL offenses averaging 187.6 passing yards per game through 17 games to start 2024. That low level hasn’t been seen since 1992.
Not doing much for my MOGA (Make Offense Great Again) theme for the season. Hopefully we won’t add potentially losing a starting quarterback each week too. It was Jordan Love last week, and then it was Tua Tagovailoa with another concussion on Thursday night. Who knows what the future holds there.
Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins looking a bit rusty last week. Low bar for the rookies who played. Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones are apparently still trash. Bryce Young and Will Levis not giving much hope in Week 1. Justin Fields and Jacoby Brissett won games, but they did very little to earn them, and they still feel like placeholders for Russell Wilson and Drake Maye, who both may not even play well this year.
It’s setting up for someone like Baker Mayfield to lead the league in passing yards, or for Derek Carr to take a crack at QBR lead like a 2017 Carson Wentz/Case Keenum situation. But they only played the Commanders and Panthers last week. Bigger tests this week.
But you really have to start wondering if running the ball is making a big comeback. The defenses are not falling for a lot of these dink-and-dunk passing games, and there’s a lack of big plays down the field with more defenses playing their safeties deep.
It’s not necessarily a bad thing, but can’t you at least let me reasonably assume a quarterback can throw for over 200 yards? We haven’t seen that so far this season, but it is early.
This Week’s Articles:
2024 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 2: My new Wednesday column at 365Scores. I think I’ll have a good time with this one now that I got an NFL+ subscription and will be using more stats there. I’m thinking Stat Oddity will focus less on QBs this year so I can save that material for the weekly QB rankings.
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks Week 2: Again, more emphasis on running the ball. I also call Derek Carr’s bluff in Dallas, pick Ja’Marr Chase to put up stats in a loss, and for Sam Darnold to throw multiple picks. Also, you can now get under 43.5 instead of 42.5 for Giants-Commanders, so that’s better than what the odds I had to write about Thursday night.
NFL Week 2 Predictions
Excuse me for trying something different Thursday night with picking Miami in a 3-point game. I still had Buffalo winning the AFC East and Miami missing the playoffs before the season. But I wrote Friday about why I think Tua Tagovailoa should retire after a fourth concussion since 2022. It’s obviously 100% his decision and it’s hard to expect any 26-year-old athlete to just hang them up, but the pattern I see is a quarterback who can’t protect himself from these hits, and each one makes you more likely for more. He’s in a bad spot, and let’s not forget Miami is largely to blame for putting him back out there in that Buffalo game in 2022 and having him on the field in Cincinnati four days later.
We know what Week 2 means. Do we believe last week or double down on our preseason priors about these teams? I ended up hedging on 6 games by picking a different spread and ML winner.
The Saints and Cowboys have been blowing teams out, but now they meet in what could be one of Week 2’s best games. However, I’m calling the Saints’ bluff that they’re a paper tiger who has beaten up 4 NFC South teams over their last six games, and I’m trusting the Cowboys to win that one by a full touchdown at least. Prove me wrong for a change, Derek Carr.
Baker Mayfield is leading one of the few passing offenses I feel like I can trust right now, and the Detroit defense stays giving up huge passing numbers. Expecting good offense in that one and I think the spread is a little too high for the Lions, who weren’t great against a banged-up Rams team.
I’m hedging on Cleveland +3 as I think the world is cruel and will somehow reward Deshaun Watson when his ass shouldn’t even be on the field. But from my Trevor Lawrence research, I think the Browns have a defense that can hold him under 60% completions and take away the short game, which is effectively his only path to victory in the NFL so far. Wild stuff:
49ers lost in Minnesota last year without CMC if I recall, and this could be a trap game too after looking good Monday night. But I just refuse to believe in these Vikings and Darnold yet.
Got the Harbaugh brothers covering with much more trust in John as the Raiders looked bad last week. Riding King Henry to hopefully some big wins this week.
The Seahawks-Patriots game might as well be called Trap 2. One of those teams is starting 2-0 with a defensive rookie coach, and I’m not sure I’d dare bet any significant money on that one. Maybe a Geno INT if Walker is banged up and they don’t have a running game that’s effective? Are the Patriots still reliable for that without Belichick? We’ll find out.
IND-GB is another betting nightmare with Malik Willis possibly (probably?) starting the game. But I look at what Joe Mixon did last week against the Colts and that’s why I’m riding Josh Jacobs in Week 2. Trusting LaFleur’s experience here as they might win that one outright.
Jets have some real problems if they’re getting shredded by Will Levis this week. Should be a bounce-back game.
I’m going Washington over the Giants. Just think Daniel Jones won’t take advantage of that poor defense enough, and Washington had some decent per drive numbers last week in Tampa. But not expecting much from that game.
Cardinals could absolutely beat the Rams with a banged up OL and no Puka Nacua. I just trust McVay and Stafford against that particular opponent.
Steelers-Broncos is absolutely another game you should be careful about putting big money on. Without question a spot for a Tomlin disappointment after winning as a road underdog last week in Atlanta without scoring a touchdown. T.J. Watt is his saving grace here as he could wreck that matchup and get to Bo Nix often. The Steelers should win this game against a rookie quarterback prone to mistakes, but we’ve seen how this one has played out before. Couldn’t even beat rookie Bailey Zappe at home last year, and you know I am not a fan of Justin Fields’ play. He coughed up the ball to give the Broncos a win last year after shredding them for a half.
I’m mostly just mad I’m in the small part of the country who will get Steelers-Broncos on CBS instead of the game I actually want to focus on live, Bengals-Chiefs. It would be typical NFL for the Bengals to lose to the Patriots at home as the biggest spread favorite in Week 1 before going on the road and knocking off the champs. I don’t think it should happen without Tee Higgins available, or at least that’s what it sounds like his status is for Sunday. It would be great to see the Chiefs blow this team out with how much talking they do as Ja’Marr Chase just said Cincy is still the AFC team to beat. But the Chiefs struggle blowing anyone out, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s another 3 or 4-point game late. But I’m still backing the Chiefs to win and drop the Bengals to 0-2. However, that is a good motivating factor to avoid that bad of a start, and crazier things have happened than this.
I repeat, the Bengals just lost 16-10 at home to the Patriots last week.
Don’t have huge expectations for SNF and MNF, but can they go any worse than Thursday night in Miami? I get why the NFL would schedule Bears-Texans this early to showcase two young QBs, but maybe save it for Week 4 or 5 after Caleb Williams gets some experience? Rough start last week despite the Rex Grossman-caliber win. I fully expect Houston to shine and look like a contender. As for Monday night, the Falcons and Kirk Cousins just looked bad to me last week. We’ll see what they can do in Philly, which also had some sloppy play in Brazil but still got the win.
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 