My NFL picks have a problem this week in that I didn’t pick a single underdog to win on Sunday. I’ll explain why below, but I know I’m likely setting myself up for trouble. However, underdogs have already had such a strong season that it’s well past time things start trending the other way on that.
The potential Game of the Week is Commanders-Ravens given how explosive those offenses have been and how untrustworthy the defenses are this year. But I actually think that game is going to disappoint and we’re going to get a double-digit Baltimore victory as Lamar Jackson improves to 22-1 vs. NFC opponents who just don’t know how to handle him.
In past years, I’d take the bait on Washington +6.5, talking about Jayden Daniels jumping ahead of Lamar Jackson in the MVP odds, and that great offense taking advantage of a vulnerable Baltimore defense. Does that make sense this week? Absolutely. But I’m looking to zig when others are zagging as I see the public is on Washington +6.5 quite heavily. Feels like the spot where the young team and rookie disappoint, and Baltimore establishes some dominance at home with an easier win that probably won’t even be a massive shootout. Think Lions-Cowboys or Packers-Cardinals for that tomorrow.
I’d welcome being wrong on WAS-BAL since a new power with a rookie QB would be very cool to see, but I just think the status quo isn’t ready to change on that one.
This Week’s Articles
- 2024 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 6 – Looking at Josh Allen’s rough game in Houston (1992 Seahawks reference), and the rookies are heating up.
- Top Options for Player Props – 5 players (evergreen) who look most trustworthy for prop betting this season.
- Bengals-Giants SNF Picks – Daniel Jones is 1-14 in prime time and has been held under 21.5 points in 13-of-15 games.
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks Week 6 – I really like a Josh Allen INT, Chris Olave to go over 5.5 yards in the 1st quarter, and the Texans to beat a scrambling Drake Maye in New England. Also trusting Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, and for the Steelers to finally get Najee Harris in the end zone.
2024 NFL Week 6 Predictions
Started things off with a win this week as the Seahawks just can’t seem to outscore the 49ers anymore.
Here’s why I struggled to pick any underdog to win on Sunday.
Jags-Bears: Maybe Jacksonville found something with Tank Bigsby and the running game last week, but more importantly, they are pros in the London experience and I think that helps them edge out a win here.
Commanders-Ravens: Already gave my thoughts on this one above, and I think Brian Robinson Jr. being out reinforces the idea that the Commanders won’t be as effective on offense in Baltimore, and Lamar and Henry are going to torture that defense.
Bucs-Saints: While I love Chris Olave 1Q stats in this one, I don’t trust rookie Spencer Rattler enough for the whole game, and I think the Bucs are playing better ball right now while the Saints have really struggled after that hot start. Give me Tampa to win one after a difficult week with the OT loss and the area dealing with hurricanes. Bucky Irving gets a TD to make up for the fumble last week.
Browns-Eagles: Maybe some upset potential, but I just can’t trust Deshaun Watson to win any game right now. Look for the Eagles to get after him and for Jalen Hurts to be very happy that his WRs are back.
Colts-Titans: I’d take Indy if Joe Flacco was the QB, but I don’t trust Anthony Richardson to get the job done. I sure don’t trust Will Levis either, but I think with the bye week and a defense that is playing very poorly for the Colts, they’ll find a way to stack wins and get it done here.
Texans-Patriots: The Texans have a negative scoring differential this season as they haven’t won any game by more than 6 points, and they lost 34-7 to the Vikings. Definitely not playing as great as I expected, and now Nico Collins is out. But I think the best pass rush puts Drake Maye through a blender and they get their biggest MOV win this season. Even if it’s a 20-13 game, that’ll do, pig.
Cardinals-Packers: Maybe I’m losing it, but I think this has 30-27 potential as a fun late afternoon game. As long as Kyler Murray can avoid those pesky turnovers on the road, that is.
Chargers-Broncos: It sounds like Justin Herbert is as healthy as he’s been all season after the bye. Bo Nix seems to be absolutely dreadful every other week, so I’m going to trust Herbert and Jim Harbaugh’s defense to get this road win and stop Denver’s winning streak.
Steelers-Raiders: Under normal circumstances, I’d pick the Raiders to win this. But maybe Vegas isn’t Oakland as far as a hellhole for Mike Tomlin to visit and lose a game he should win. They won there last year with Kenny Pickett throwing 2 TDs for the only time in his career. Throw in the Steelers losing last week to Dallas at the end, the Raiders not having Davante Adams or Jakobi Meyers available, and I think it’s trending Pittsburgh’s way. But I wouldn’t be shocked if they barely covered the spread regardless.
Falcons-Panthers: Can we really trust the Falcons to win any game by a big margin right now? Could be a nice little back-and-forth game with Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton here. Throw in that shitty pass rush from the Falcons, and that’s why I like Dalton to go over in passing yards.
Lions-Cowboys: This could be the best game of the day, but I’m backing the Lions to get revenge for last year’s controversial 20-19 loss on that illegal formation penalty. Micah Parsons and other key parts of that defense being out for Dallas is the deciding factor here. Jared Goff won’t hit 100% of his passes again, but I think that offense stays hot and wins this one.
Bengals-Giants: Got the preview link above for this one. I think without Malik Nabers, the Giants aren’t going to score enough points to win. Sacking Joe Burrow 5+ times is their only hope and I don’t think it’ll happen.
Bills-Jets: This is similar to 49ers-Seahawks in that it’s a game for first place, but both teams lost last week and are disappointing us at the moment. The 49ers, the preseason favorite, prevailed on Thursday night, but I’m not counting on the same for Buffalo, especially after I think Josh Allen played with a concussion at the end of that game in Houston where he was 9-for-30. The Jets have a good defense and we have seen them make him struggle before. He has no picks this year, but that streak should come to an end in this game. And even though I don’t think firing Robert Saleh now fixes anything, somehow I see Aaron Rodgers getting a win this week even though it was his poor play against Denver and Minnesota that got Saleh fired.
More parlay plays to come on Twitter, so stay tuned there.
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 