NFL Super Bowl LIX Preview

~ Scott

It’s been years since I’ve grinded away for hours on a Saturday to do a final big preview for the Super Bowl that I posted here. I get that done during the week at other sites now, but after sending in about 30 different pieces across four sites this week, I am wore out and ready for the game. I don’t know how much more I can say about Chiefs vs. Eagles.

I just want to see it already as I think it’s a fascinating matchup and obviously a ton of history/legacy at stake with the three-peat. It’s also historic with these teams meeting for the 4th year in a row, something that’s never been done in any AFC vs. NFC matchup.

Here are the key links to articles I’ve already done about Super Bowl LIX, so if you need to pass the time Sunday before kickoff, here you go:

Super Bowl LIX Final Prediction

It goes without saying I want the Chiefs to win this game. I only root for the Eagles when they played the Patriots. Going into these games, I usually find it very easy to doubt the Chiefs because they usually are playing a team that’s built better than they are, and I think that’s the case again.

In fact, I wanted to see if I could dig out something from my Super Bowl LIV preview (Chiefs vs. 49ers) from the first Super Bowl in the Patrick Mahomes era to see if anything applies here to Sunday night. Sure enough, there’s this:

There are a lot of areas that favor the 49ers, and I think historically the 49ers are the type of team more likely to win this game than a team like the Chiefs. There are just more ways for the 49ers to win while practically every positive outcome for Kansas City involves Mahomes playing really well. Then again, Mahomes is 9-0 in his career when his passer rating is under 90.0 because he’s the best at doing what the coach who succeeded Reid and preceded Shanahan used to say: f***ing score points.

But in doing the research the last two weeks, I was legitimately concerned at how much seemed to favor the Chiefs over the Eagles. You want to talk about turnovers? The Chiefs still win games when they lose the turnover battle, and if anyone’s due for a bad turnover night, it should be the Eagles (no giveaways in 5 games combined with +10 this postseason and the fact the Chiefs have never gone 4 straight games without one). No SB winner has ever failed to force at least 3 takeaways in the playoffs, so what are the Chiefs doing here? Get some turnovers Sunday night.

Then the Chiefs haven’t allowed a 90-yard rusher in 18 playoff games under Spagnuolo. They’re still 10-3 the last 13 times they’ve allowed a 100-yard rusher, which is a fantastic record in that split.

Then you look it up and the Chiefs have actually outrushed the Eagles head-to-head in 3 straight years. Who would have guessed that? Mahomes is 8-0 against Vic Fangio, he’s never lost indoors in the NFL, he’s 45-2 when he gets the ball out in under 2.8 seconds (which he’s done so well for the last month), the Eagles don’t make quarterbacks hold it that long, the Chiefs are better on special teams, they’re the more battle tested team, etc.

But you never want to feel too confident about a Super Bowl, because I think the last time I did that, Tampa Bay beat the Chiefs 31-9. Sure, there was the LOAT factor, but I misjudged the OL shuffle the Chiefs did that night.

Because when you look at the Chiefs’ 20 playoff games under Mahomes, they’re 17-3 with two losses in overtime. That Tampa Bay rout sticks out like a sore thumb, and if the Eagles win this game, you feel better about it being a blowout than a close game.

So, as the week wore on, I did start to doubt the Chiefs more.

I could see Barkley hitting a homerun in the first quarter again, maybe even the first play. Like as inevitable as Devin Hester taking the opening kickoff for a touchdown in Super Bowl 41 against the Colts. He’s just had that kind of season. But I don’t think the Chiefs are giving up 150+ yards to him on the ground and they can survive the long play touchdown. You’d rather give that up than consistent gains all night, which the Eagles haven’t been doing in the playoffs as Barkley’s success rate has dropped 9 points from the reg. season.

Then you start thinking the Chiefs have this 17-game winning streak in one-score games. When does that stop? The Eagles love to punch the ball out. Does someone like Kelce fumble in scoring range late in the game to end the three-peat? I had that vision, or maybe I was just thinking of the red-zone fumble he had last year against Philly earlier in the fourth quarter of a game the Eagles came back to win.

But I think the No. 1 issue to watch for the Chiefs is the offensive line. Does moving Joe Thuney to tackle weaken them too much at guard when the strength of the Eagles’ front seven is the interior line? If I’m Vic Fangio, I am moving Jalen Carter over to face new left guard Mike Caliendo, who is struggling. Don’t just leave him on Trey Smith all game. Own the Carter-Caliendo matchup to the point where maybe Andy Reid has to slide Thuney back to LG and play D.J. Humphries at LT. Shuffling the OL like this in a Super Bowl might cause some PTSD for Mahomes and the Chiefs. That’s what I’d do if I was the Eagles. You have to change things up in the Super Bowl. Make use of that extra week of prep work.

But I will say the numbers just aren’t that flattering for this pass rush of the Eagles. It’s not like 2022. But if the Chiefs can handle them up front, I think they play well. Then it’s the chess match on the other side with Spags likely blitzing Hurts, and likely sending corner blitzes. I thought that was interesting that Trent McDuffie has 15 blitzes in his last two games against the Eagles. That’s way above average for him. We’ll see if they do that again.

I looked at my old previews and I picked the Eagles two years ago (27-20) because I think I legitimately felt worried about that pass rush going up against Mahomes on the high-ankle sprain, and of course the Eagles offense had the edge against a young, middling KC defense. But I picked the Chiefs outright (by 4 points each time) against the 49ers in 2019 and 2023, so I didn’t do a reverse jinx or anything.

I’m not going to do one here either, because I don’t have any strong negative feelings about the 2024 Eagles like I did for say Buffalo, the No. 1 team on my Fraud Alert Rating metric. Eagles fans haven’t even given me any shit this postseason, and I’ve said this game is pretty much a coin flip and they have a very fair shot to win it. They are the team more likely to win it by multiple scores if it’s not a one-score game.

But the numbers I trust say the Chiefs (-1.5) usually win these matchups. They’re 6-0 in playoff games with spreads this small. They just find a way to win, and to come this close to a three-peat, I think they find a way to do it one more time. But I don’t expect it to be as high scoring as two years ago because I think both defenses are better and the game won’t have a ton of possessions.

Final: Chiefs 24, Eagles 21 (MVP: Patrick Mahomes)

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