Category: NFL Game Predictions

NFL Week 13 Predictions: Patriots vs. Packers

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I had this big Patriots-Packers matchup circled months ago as I was going to do an article I started in summer 2012 about Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. It’s one of only a few articles in my files that I started without finishing a full draft. This was going to be a very eye-opening piece that I still expect to complete at some point. Missing from my plans was the fact that Week 13 was Thanksgiving week, so that put a damper on my hopes of generating a lot of discussion over my article with the holiday. Throw in the fact that I’m experiencing pain in the bottom right side of my body every time I move and I haven’t been able to do much at all this week.

What I will do is provide some thoughts on this important game which should have major playoff implications. After Sunday, I’m not sure either team will lose another regular-season game this year. 

Coaching – The Patriots are believed to have a big advantage with Bill Belichick matching wits with Mike McCarthy, who still rarely gets credit as one of the best coaches in the league. Also, Dom Capers and his 3-4 defense havea lot in common with Dick LeBeau’s system, which Belichick and Tom Brady have picked apart better than anyone. I’m inclined to agree with all of that, but I know in 2010 McCarthy took his team with Matt Flynn at QB and played very well in Foxboro. At a time when the Patriots were blowing everyone out, the Packers only lost 31-27. A few tactical errors did doom them, such as a short kickoff late in the first half that a NE lineman returned for 71 yards. In the fourth quarter, McCarthy chickened out on a 4th-and-1 at the NE 1 and kicked a field goal for a 27-21 lead. Has McCarthy improved as a decision maker, especially in close games? I wouldn’t say  he has, but he’s better than most of the coaches the Patriots have faced this year.

The Quarterbacks – You may have heard five million times already this is the first start between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. I was listening to Sterling Sharpe and the NFL Playbook crew break down the matchup and found their takeaways to be intriguing and accurate. Basically, they said Rodgers just has to show up and be himself, which means making great throws into tight coverage to beat those NE cornerbacks. For Brady, they talked about how he’ll take advantage of your mistakes, especially in the red zone and with breakdowns in coverage that leave guys wide open like Tim Wright on just about every touchdown he has this year.

In layman’s terms, Rodgers can credit a higher percentage of his success to his own greatness while Brady benefits more from schematic advantages.

In caveman terms, Rodgers succeeds by being great and Brady succeeds because the opponent fucked up.

That might sound harsh, but I can’t really disagree with it. That’s a big part of the reason I never bought into Brady being the “best” because you rarely see him make the tough plays. There are throws that Rodgers can routinely make that Brady and just about every other QB in the NFL simply can’t make. When pressured, we know Rodgers will take more sacks because he’s really cautious to not throw picks, but he’s still much better than Brady at making something out of nothing. He has the better individual tools for the position.

But the question is which quarterback will have to do more to win this game? That should be Rodgers, because I think he’s playing the tougher defense. Forget the early-season results. The Patriots held Denver and Indianapolis, two of the best offenses in the league, to 21 and 20 points. Rodgers has gone from having the deepest receiving corps in the NFL to basically playing catch with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, yet he’s still playing like a MVP this year. He’ll have to play at a high level to consistently beat Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner in coverage with those receivers. I think Nelson is more dangerous and so much of his success comes near the sideline by adjusting to throws from Rodgers where only Nelson can get the ball. Revis will have studied this, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see if they play the size matchups and Revis sees a lot of the faster Cobb. But if the Patriots are winning these matchups, then Green Bay could be in trouble due to a lack of production from tight end and other receivers.

The Running Game – I didn’t even consider the running game in Patriots-Colts, because NE didn’t show any real consistency in that area this season. Of course, the RB position was critical and the Colts made Jonas Gray a star for one night. Of course, the Patriots are the only team in NFL history who would have a guy go off for 200 yards and 4 TD and not even play the following week to teach him a lesson. I have no idea if Gray will contribute this week or if the reacquired LeGarrette Blount will get most of the action. Eddie Lacy has been anything but consistent for GB this year, but he’ll need to have a decent impact. His receiving has been a huge benefit lately, but rarely do you see a Belichick-coached defense look so pathetic on a screen or tackling the way the Bears and Eagles have in recent weeks against GB.

For the year the Patriots have done a better job of stopping the run. A big part of containing the Broncos and Colts was holding those offenses to pathetic rushing numbers. If Lacy has 10 carries for 23 yards, I can promise you the Patriots will win this game decisively. I expect better than that, but I also expect the Patriots to have a better rushing day to help complement Brady’s passing.

Home-field Advantage – It’s good for Green Bay the game is at Lambeau, because they have been landing fatalities before halftime there this season. The problem is they’ve done it against a bunch of weak teams except for the Eagles, who still don’t match up as well as the Patriots can. There’s a pretty big step up in competition here for Green Bay. Still, this is one of the toughest road tests for the Patriots in years, and Indy game be damned, they rarely pass these tests anymore. Keep in mind the Patriots had a bye week to prepare for that Indy game where they went unorthodox by utilizing a sixth offensive lineman to much success in the running game. These are fairly unfamiliar opponents, though I’m not sure that benefits or hurts either team too much after a normal week to prepare. Belichick was playing against a Peyton Manning offense for the 23rd time this year. He was facing the Colts for the 12th season in a row. Did that experience help with those performances? Maybe. I’m just trying to figure out how Geno Smith and the Jets had more offensive success than those teams, and if the Packers are added to that list, then I’m going to be even more confused.

Close Game? – Speaking of first-half fatalities, these teams aren’t playing close games this year at all. They each only have one 4QC/GWD opportunity and both were in Miami. The Packers are 1-0 at 4QC/GWD opportunities, which is stunning since they have three losses. That means they were beaten thoroughly, which is unusual. The Patriots are 0-1 at 4QC/GWDs, because they got their asses kicked in Kansas City and have mostly blown teams out since then. If you want to see a classic shootout between these quarterbacks, you’re probably going to be disappointed. This is more likely to be a rout the Patriots haven’t seen since Drew Brees destroyed them in 2009, or it could be a stomping the Packers haven’t taken under Rodgers since the 2012 Giants made us think they were prepared for another run.

Gronkowski Factor – He’s regained his status as the best TE in the NFL, but Gronkowski can have a big impact without even touching the ball now. Defenses are so afraid of him they’ll allow other guys (like Wright) to get open and Brady has no problem picking out the open guy. Gronk’s actually been held under 80 yards the last two weeks, yet NE continued to score 34-42 points. His touchdown against the Colts, as impressive as it was, came with the game basically decided already. So you can hold down Gronk to respectable numbers, but that doesn’t mean you’ll stop the Patriots. They have too many ways to succeed, and that’s the overall theme I’ve been driving towards with this matchup. Hell, Brady didn’t even average 6.6 YPA against Denver (6.28) or Detroit (6.59), yet the Patriots won by 22+ points. If it’s not Gronk’s amazing catch radius or taking advantage of a poor run defense, you get the defense setting up short fields with takeaways or Julian Edelman making a monster punt return. Did I mention the Patriots are better on special teams? Brandon LaFell has also really come on during this run as a trustworthy third receiver and I wouldn’t be shocked if he outproduced Cobb and Nelson on Sunday. I’m assuming his injury wasn’t a big deal at the end of last week’s game.

Rodgers is certainly having more of a MVP season than Brady, and he could take a significant lead in that race with a brilliant performance here. But it’s also for that reason — needing one player to do more to succeed — that I think the Patriots, the more complete team, get this win.

Final prediction: Patriots 33, Packers 24

NFL Week 13 Predictions

Should the Broncos be worried if Julius Thomas doesn’t play on Sunday night? I don’t think so. Last week’s dominant offensive display was done without Thomas, as was last year’s 35-28 win in Arrowhead. In both games Virgil Green played over 70% of the snaps to give Denver better blocking. While I think the Chiefs will come out strong looking to make up for the Oakland loss and rally around the terrible Eric Berry news, I still think Denver will score enough to get the win. Hopefully this game and NE-GB will live up to the hype, because Thanksgiving really sucked. I picked Detroit, Dallas and Seattle, so there’s a 2-1 start.

Winners in bold:

  • Redskins at Colts
  • Browns at Bills
  • Saints at Steelers
  • Raiders at Rams
  • Giants at Jaguars
  • Chargers at Ravens
  • Titans at Texans
  • Panthers at Vikings
  • Bengals at Buccaneers
  • Cardinals at Falcons
  • Patriots at Packers
  • Broncos at Chiefs
  • Dolphins at Jets

Heavy on the road teams late in the week, I guess.

Season Results

  • Week 1: 8-8
  • Week 2: 9-7
  • Week 3: 11-5
  • Week 4: 8-5
  • Week 5: 11-4
  • Week 6: 9-5-1
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Week 8: 10-5
  • Week 9: 11-2
  • Week 10: 10-3
  • Week 11: 8-6
  • Week 12: 12-3
  • Total: 117-58-1

NFL Week 12 Predictions

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I’m having some health issues this weekend, so no preview. Just the picks.

NFL Week 12 Predictions

I thought the Raiders had a decent shot at their first win of the season, but I still went with the Chiefs on TNF.

Winners in bold:

  • Packers at Vikings
  • Browns at Falcons
  • Bengals at Texans
  • Lions at Patriots
  • Jaguars at Colts
  • Buccaneers at Bears
  • Titans at Eagles
  • Cardinals at Seahawks
  • Rams at Chargers
  • Dolphins at Broncos
  • Redskins at 49ers
  • Cowboys at Giants
  • Jets at Bills
  • Ravens at Saints

I’ve built up enough pain tolerance to add a few one-liners.

Bengals at Texans – I don’t even trust Cincinnati in their playoff house of horrors, but I think Ryan Mallett makes more mistakes against a better defense this week.

Lions at Patriots – Forget Gray and Blount, the Patriots will use the passing game to build the lead and the Lions won’t be able to catch up on the road.

Cardinals at Seahawks – We saw some bad throws from Drew Stanton last week, but Detroit didn’t capitalize the way Seattle will at home. Should be low scoring and tight.

Rams at Chargers – Don’t sleep on another St. Louis upset if the pass rush can get after Philip Rivers, who apparently is hurting and didn’t look sharp last week at home against Oakland.

Dolphins at Broncos – Bad matchup for the Broncos to get back on track, but at least it’s a home game where they’re e 5-0 against five winning teams this year and play much better offensively.

Ravens at Saints – Reminder: Drew Brees has 40 TD, 3 INT in his last 11 home prime-time games. I think he’ll get his first win against Baltimore (0-3; the only team he has never beaten) in perhaps his last career opportunity.

Season Results

  • Week 1: 8-8
  • Week 2: 9-7
  • Week 3: 11-5
  • Week 4: 8-5
  • Week 5: 11-4
  • Week 6: 9-5-1
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Week 8: 10-5
  • Week 9: 11-2
  • Week 10: 10-3
  • Week 11: 8-6
  • Total: 105-55-1

NFL Week 11 Predictions: 4th-and-2, Take Two

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Five years ago today Bill Belichick gambled on a fourth-and-2 in Indianapolis and the rest is history.

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It’s only fitting that tomorrow night the Patriots return to Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time since that classic finish in what is a crucial game for the AFC. While much has changed in five years, the Patriots still come in with a dangerous team that has opened up leads of 17, 28, 35 and 21 points on the Colts in the last four meetings in Foxboro.

That’s why I think home-field advantage is very important here and I wrote about that specifically in our preview at Football Outsiders.

For the Colts to win they must control the game with their offense: ball security, third-down conversions and touchdowns in the red zone. Andrew Luck has done a great job of spreading the ball in a high-volume, high efficiency attack that’s helped the Colts lead the league in scoring. The Colts lead the league with six wire-to-wire wins (never trailed), so they are very pass happy this year. Yet I still think this will follow the script of so many previous Pats-Colts games in that the Patriots will jump out to a big lead while capitalizing on Indy mistakes and Luck will have to lead a second-half comeback, which he of course is very capable of doing. The Colts have had 18-point comeback wins in both games following their bye week under Luck and both teams are coming off the bye for this one, which is a scheduling quirk that needs to die right away.

Luck has to bring his A-game, because if his accuracy is off the Patriots will tip balls and create turnovers. The cornerbacks will be physical with the receivers. I think T.Y. Hilton’s speed could work against Darrelle Revis, but I think Brandon Browner may lock down the older, slower Reggie Wayne. At least one of the tight ends and Ahmad Bradshaw need to have really good games for the Colts, who I think need a minimum of 35 points to win in what should be a high-scoring game, even if it’s not a traditional shootout. Luck will have to throw for 350+ again. If the Week 2 Luck (vs. Philadelphia) shows up, the Colts are toast.

The Patriots have too many advantages on the offensive side of the ball to not have a big scoring night. When Rob Gronkowksi is on like he’s been, there’s really no stopping him. The Colts’ best defender is Vontae Davis, but if he’s locked up with Brandon LaFell, the Patriots won’t have any problem with LaFell getting three catches for 30 yards, because they’ll just feed Gronkowski and Julian Edelman over the middle of the field against the linebackers and safeties. The Colts are 29th in DVOA against tight ends and 32nd against running backs, so watch out for Shane Vereen as a receiver too. I don’t think Davis can cover Gronk. I’m not even sure he can shut down Edelman based on the 2013 AFC Divisional matchup I took a quick look at here.

To beat Tom Brady is to pressure him. The Robert Mathis-less Colts couldn’t get pressure on Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger and they were shredded in those games. The Colts have to blitz to get pressure. Brady will succeed against the blitz more often than not, but the Colts still have to try because he’ll have all day to carve them up with three and four-man rushes. If you concede the Patriots are going to score a lot and you expect to score a lot too, then maybe a blitz-happy approach isn’t the dumbest plan to have for Chuck Pagano. All it takes is a few well-timed pressures to turn a drive into a punt or field goal instead of a touchdown. The Colts will need a few of those stops, particularly on third down and in the red zone.

It’s a fun matchup. We may see it again in January. Maybe I’m just dreaming, but I can see this being a game where everyone wants to crown the Patriots at halftime, but by the end of the night it’s another Luck-led comeback. Maybe this time Belichick punts on fourth-and-2 and Luck just goes the 75 yards anyway. He’s about due for a GWD. But I know better than to pick against the Patriots when they’re on a run like this and I think Gronkowski will be the difference.

Final prediction: Patriots 35, Colts 31

The Other Big Ones

We do have three other games this week between teams with at least a 6-3 record, making this a historic week in terms of the schedule.

Seahawks (6-3) at Chiefs (6-3) – Does Seattle struggle in early starts on the road? We saw them down 21-3 in St. Louis earlier this year. The Chiefs were fantastic on MNF against the Patriots in Arrowhead and have some favorable matchups here with Brandon Mebane (IR) and Bobby Wagner out. Expect a ton of rushing from both teams and even from both quarterbacks. Russell Wilson and Alex Smith are also throwing short a lot this year, which is nothing new for Smith, but has been a change for Wilson. So this game could be low on possessions unless both defenses play really tough. Travis Kelce needs to be fed Andy. I’m feeling the Chiefs at home, which would hardly be the most surprising outcome of the season for either team so far.

Eagles (7-2) at Packers (6-3) – Another very important game with Green Bay currently not slotted for a postseason spot. Losing another head-to-head game to a team likely to be contending with them would be tough, but I think home-field again wins out with Aaron Rodgers playing great and Mark Sanchez likely to make some mistakes in trying to keep up. I’d trust the Eagles more if the running game was like last year, but even with the offensive line in better shape they’re more reliant on the passing game. Sanchez was 2-19 with the Jets when NY allowed more than 24 points. I expect that to be 2-20 this time tomorrow.

Lions (7-2) at Cardinals (8-1) – Yeah, like you saw these teams battling for first place in the NFC in Week 11. I think the Lions should win the game, but their history is really making me want to pick Bruce Arians at home. In theory, Detroit’s defense should contain the running game and force Drew Stanton to carry the offense. Stanton will want to throw deep, which takes time to set up, which means Ndamukong Suh and company should get a good pass rush on him and create mistakes. Arizona will also shut down the run, but Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate are capable of making plays against Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie. Matthew Stafford should outplay Stanton, but again, when do we see the Lions excel in these moments?

Remember this table? Stafford is 0-14 on the road against teams who finish the year with a winning record.

Staff9

I think it will be low scoring and close. The Lions have pulled off three straight 4QC/GWD in the final minutes. The Cardinals are 8-0 at upholding one-score leads in the fourth quarter. Something has to break here.

I’m definitely keeping an eye on the home teams in these big games. Discarding the now 5-5 Bills, there have been 38 games played in 2014 between teams who currently have a winning record. The home team is a staggering 28-10 (.737). As the mention of Buffalo shows, what constitutes a winning team in the early stages of Week 11 is not set in stone. If we look at regular-season games between teams finishing with winning records in recent years, we find the following home winning percentages: 24-15 (.615) in 2013, 33-13 (.717) in 2012, 19-16 (.543) in 2011, 25-17 (.595) in 2010 and 29-19 (.604) in 2009. So this season with its unusually high number of teams above .500 (17 entering the weekend) could end up well above average for home dominance.

NFL Week 11 Predictions

I hesitated on TNF, but I did have Miami solving the Buffalo puzzle, which reads “NO PLAYOFFS AGAIN” when you complete it.

Winners in bold:

  • Buccaneers at Redskins
  • Bengals at Saints
  • Falcons at Panthers
  • 49ers at Giants
  • Seahawks at Chiefs
  • Texans at Browns
  • Vikings at Bears
  • Broncos at Rams
  • Raiders at Chargers
  • Eagles at Packers
  • Lions at Cardinals
  • Patriots at Colts
  • Steelers at Titans

Looking for the Bears and Panthers to show some pride at home against flawed division rivals after last week’s prime-time embarrassments. I think the Rams might sack Peyton Manning a few times, but he could torch them for 400 yards and four touchdowns. Though we’ll see if Shaun Hill does anything different for the offense. Before his first start, I’m on the record as thinking Ryan Mallett sucks, so I don’t expect much from him tomorrow (or ever).

I was going to write something about the Steelers this week, but too much aggravation after last week’s loss to the Jets. There’s really nothing new to say. This is what the Steelers do on the road against inferior competition, and look what’s on the schedule this week. However, I’m sure this is the game where the lousy rookie QB (Zach Mettenberger) will make just enough mistakes to allow for an unimpressive Pittsburgh win.

Season Results

  • Week 1: 8-8
  • Week 2: 9-7
  • Week 3: 11-5
  • Week 4: 8-5
  • Week 5: 11-4
  • Week 6: 9-5-1
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Week 8: 10-5
  • Week 9: 11-2
  • Week 10: 10-3
  • Total: 97-49-1

NFL Week 10 Predictions: 2014 Midseason Awards

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Now that every team has played at least eight games, here are my picks for NFL awards at the midseason point. Unlike some ridiculous experts who decided to make their choices based on what they expected in August, I’m basing my picks on what actually happened in Weeks 1-9.

Most Valuable Player – Peyton Manning

By definition MVP almost has to be a quarterback, and there are some really good seasons in progress right now, but Manning has outclassed them all so far.

Manning leads the league in:

  • DVOA (35.5%) and DYAR (962) (see FO)
  • Total QBR (86.9)
  • Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (8.69)
  • Touchdown pass percentage (7.8%)
  • Win Probability Added (2.99)
  • Expected Points Added per Play (0.32)

Otherwise, not much going on here. Andrew Luck is barely beating him out in EPA and TD passes, but he’s also played one more game than Manning, which will equal out this week with the Colts on a bye.

Plain and simple, no quarterback has been more consistently valuable this season than Manning. Philip Rivers is on a three-game losing streak that has buried him in the race, which he really never led in my view. Aaron Rodgers has been great, but his three road losses certainly look worse than Manning’s two, especially the respective efforts in Seattle. Ben Roethlisberger has been white hot the last two weeks, but he scored a total of 26 points in Baltimore, Jacksonville and Cleveland this year. It’s nice of the Chiefs to light a fire under Tom Brady’s ass, but that September start leaves him well behind the lead.

Offensive Player of the Year – DeMarco Murray

While I’m really starting to warm up to Antonio Brown for this award, let’s take a chance to reward Murray’s consistency at a position that has been so neglected in recent years. Eight 100-yard rushing games to start a season is a heck of a record to set in 2014, and it’s helped to keep that Dallas defense off the field. Now if only he’d stop fumbling.

Defensive Player of the Year – J.J. Watt

Is this one already wrapped up? Who else even stands out? While WPA is a pretty flawed stat when used for defensive players, I like that it says Watt is so far and away the best DE in the NFL. His WPA in 2012 was 3.20 and 2.32 last season. He’s already at 2.22 this season with seven games to go. He impacts the game in so many ways and he’s done it this year with virtually zero help from Jadeveon Clowney, which was supposed to be the plan.

Coach of the Year – Bruce Arians

I said BA had a death grip on this award after Week 8 and some Dallas fans weren’t too pleased with that. Well, he proved it again last week with a convincing win in Dallas after Jason Garrett spent the week playing an injured Romo in OT and getting away from DeMarco Murray with Brandon Weeden in the game. Arians has been COTY material for the last three years now. He does it by being aggressive on both sides of the ball and getting the most out of his flawed teams. Imagine if the Cardinals had Darnell Dockett, Daryl Washington and John Abraham on defense this year. They’ve held everyone but Denver under 21 points without those guys so far.

The Arizona Cardinals have the best record in the entire NFL at 7-1. That fact alone is worthy of the award.

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Zack Martin

I like some of the rookie WRs, but wish the best ones (Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin) had better QB play to show off their skills more. And I guess the Steelers waited too long to get Martavis Bryant involved for him to be in the discussion, though keep catching TDs every week and we’ll see come December. So for now let’s just go with the boring choice of Martin, a guard who was like the final piece of the puzzle to Dallas’ high-resource cost OL.

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Anthony Barr

This definitely looks headed to a linebacker, whether it’s Barr, C.J. Mosley or don’t forget Oakland’s Khalil Mack. I’m going with Barr for now based on impact plays, and few were better by a defender this year than his strip, recovery and return for a game-winning touchdown in overtime against Tampa Bay. I know one of Mosley’s interceptions was caught off a deflection this year, so I’m not terribly impressed with that one, but he’s working out as expected for Baltimore.

Comeback Player of the Year – Rob Gronkowski

Always hate this award with its goofy criteria, so let’s just go with the guy who tore his ACL in December and has returned to being the best TE in football, and arguably the toughest overall skill player to defend.

NFL Week 10 Predictions

I should know better than to trust the Bengals in a prime-time game with a division lead at stake, but since when am I supposed to trust the Browns too? Crazy year in the AFC North.

Winners in bold:

  • Falcons at Buccaneers
  • Cowboys at Jaguars
  • Chiefs at Bills
  • Steelers at Jets
  • 49ers at Saints
  • Dolphins at Lions
  • Titans at Ravens
  • Broncos at Raiders
  • Giants at Seahawks
  • Rams at Cardinals
  • Bears at Packers
  • Panthers at Eagles

I sure don’t trust the Falcons, but Mike Smith might be out of a job if he takes a bad loss in Tampa Bay here. Remember Week 3? It’s the last time the Falcons looked competent for more than three quarters.

Put the Steelers on upset alert in New Jersey. That’s exactly the kind of game they should win, which is exactly why it’s the kind of game they’ll make a nail biter and possibly lose. I didn’t pick them to lose, but I know Michael Vick has started three times against Pittsburgh and every game was decided on the final snap. Injuries on defense should allow for Vick to have some favorable matchups with the weapons available to him. Ben Roethlisberger will come back to Earth eventually and the Jets have a defensive line capable of helping in that.

Season Results

  • Week 1: 8-8
  • Week 2: 9-7
  • Week 3: 11-5
  • Week 4: 8-5
  • Week 5: 11-4
  • Week 6: 9-5-1
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Week 8: 10-5
  • Week 9: 11-2
  • Total: 87-46-1

Had Colin Kaepernick scored last week I would be forever cursing the Chargers for that 37-0 ass-whipping straight out of The Twilight Zone for costing me a perfect week. Even if it was just 13-0, I want a perfect week at least once in my life.

NFL Week 9 Predictions: Manning vs. Brady Is Coke vs. Pepsi

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are like Coke and Pepsi, the two biggest brands in the world.

You can appreciate both for what they are, but Coke (Manning) has always been better.

That’s my opinion and nothing I’ve seen in 14 years (and even longer on the Pepsi-Coke front) has been good enough to change my mind.

They meet for the 16th time on Sunday and I have already done a game preview at FO, so I implore you to read it if you haven’t yet.

There’s no denying this is the biggest game in the AFC this regular season. It usually is. The winner has had home-field advantage over the other except for the last two years. One of these quarterbacks has had the No. 1 seed in the AFC in eight of the last 11 seasons.

MB1

Rarely does this rivalry bring out the best in each quarterback. Only about half of the games featured both quarterbacks playing very well. An even smaller number of meetings were actually decided by one of these quarterbacks.

Last year’s 34-31 overtime classic in Foxboro was a perfect example. In a 31-31 tie, these quarterbacks had a combined seven drives to put their team ahead, but neither could do so. The Patriots only won after Denver muffed a punt return at its own 15-yard line.

Manning hasn’t won in Foxboro since the 2006 game in which he played very well, but Brady threw four interceptions in his worst performance of the series. Manning’s worst game, the 2003 AFC Championship, saw him throw four interceptions, but Brady tried his hardest to match on a sloppy day.

When you look at the nine games in Foxboro, Manning-led teams are 2-7 and constantly shot themselves in the foot on every side of the ball. Sometimes it was in the most unlikely of ways. I got a copy of the first Brady-Manning game from 2001 and somehow Edgerrin James turned this low pass into a juggling interception for the Patriots:

int

Remember the 2012 game with Denver? Demaryius Thomas fumbled in the red zone after a long gain. Danny Woodhead converted on the ground on a third-and-17 run. Manning lost  a fumble. In the fourth quarter, Willis McGahee single-handedly blew Denver’s comeback attempt by dropping a fourth-down pass and fumbling at the NE 11 with 3:42 to play.

The Brady-Manning game with some of the best quarterbacking from both was the 2004 season opener. In the fourth quarter, down 27-24 with 3:51 left, Edgerrin James fumbled at the 1-yard line on first down. Manning was later sacked by an unblocked Wilile McGinest and Mike Vanderjagt missed a 48-yard field goal with 19 seconds left.

Some have compared this week’s game to the 2005 meeting on Monday Night Football simply due to the alleged superiority of Manning’s team. That 2005 game was the biggest team advantage Manning’s ever had over Brady and it was a 40-21 beatdown. Both quarterbacks played at a high level, but the Colts were just too much for NE that night.

I don’t think the Broncos are that much better than the Patriots right now. It’s also not lost on me that in his five wins in the rivalry, Manning has thrown for a minimum of 321 yards and scored at least 26 points. Can he do both on Sunday? Sure, but it still feels like he’ll have to do both if Denver’s going to win. The teams aren’t uneven enough to expect he can get by with an average day.

If the game was in Denver it would probably be a comfortable win for the home team, but on Halloween weekend, I know Foxboro has been a house of horrors for Manning teams and Belichick will have Rob Gronkowski and Darrelle Revis at his disposal this time around.

Final prediction: Broncos 20, Patriots 24

NFL Week 9 Predictions

I cautiously picked the Saints on TNF, but they delivered on the road.

Winners in bold:

  • Cardinals at Cowboys
  • Redskins at Vikings
  • Chargers at Dolphins
  • Jets at Chiefs
  • Eagles at Texans
  • Jaguars at Bengals
  • Buccaneers at Browns
  • Rams at 49ers
  • Broncos at Patriots
  • Raiders at Seahawks
  • Ravens at Steelers
  • Colts at Giants

Whether it’s ailing Tony Romo or old-but-inexperienced Brandon Weeden, I’ve been big on Arizona this week. This should be the game where DeMarco Murray’s 100-yard game streak ends, but I get the feeling he’ll be force-fed the ball (30 carries if possible) because of the quarterback situation. But I like the aggressive Cardinals on the road in another tight one.

Speaking of tight ones, the Steelers and Ravens should get back to a usual 3-point outcome this week. I think the big hit Ben Roethlisberger suffered at the start of the Week 2 game threw him off that night and the Steelers are playing much better now. I like them to win 23-20 here. Roethlisberger’s stats might be cut in half after last week, but 260 yards and 3 TD sounds more than adequate against Baltimore without Jimmy Smith at CB.

Season Results

  • Week 1: 8-8
  • Week 2: 9-7
  • Week 3: 11-5
  • Week 4: 8-5
  • Week 5: 11-4
  • Week 6: 9-5-1
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Week 8: 10-5
  • Total: 76-44-1

NFL Week 8 Predictions: Saints in Primetime and Losing My Fandom

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The NFL’s Week 8 schedule is pretty solid, so here are some thoughts on a few key games.

Packers at Saints: Prime-time Advantage?

I’ve always been better at predicting the AFC than the NFC, but the 2014 Saints have especially let me down this year. I had this team pegged for a first-round bye with an improved defense and Drew Brees finally winning his first MVP. Instead the Saints are 2-4, Rob Ryan’s defense is terrible and Brees has made some really poor throws in crucial spots. The Saints are also 0-3 at upholding one-score leads in the fourth quarter.

You might think Sunday’s game with Green Bay is a must win, but the whole NFC South has been a huge letdown this season. Look at how bad the Carolina defense has regressed. The Falcons were supposed to be improved, but look arguably worse than last year in recent weeks. Tampa Bay has already had two of the worst performances in recent time by an NFL team. At this rate the division will have a 7-9 winner stealing a playoff game (at home even) from a more deserving club. Hell, it might even come at the expense of the Seahawks.

If the Saints are going to climb back into things, they’ll do it with a statement win at home over a hot Packers team. In case you’ve been living under a rock, the Saints, and especially Brees, have been deadly in prime-time games in the Superdome:

BreesSD

That’s special stuff. The Saints are great at home in general, but some of their best games have come under the bright lights.

I expect Brees to have another fine day, but I don’t expect the Saints to stop the Packers enough when Aaron Rodgers has the ball.

Final prediction:  Packers 38, Saints 31

Bears at Patriots: Upset Alert?

I can’t figure out the 2014 Bears either. They’re 0-3 at home and aren’t scoring enough points despite one of the best supporting casts in the league and a coach, Marc Trestman, I want to believe is the right guy for the job. After last week’s loss to Miami, I find it hard to pick Chicago many more times this year. Heading to New England, I really don’t see a win, but let’s play the ebb-and-flow game.

The Bears just had a miserable loss and there’s some tension in the locker room apparently with Brandon Marshall mouthing off last week. Brian Urlacher has criticized Jay Cutler this week by saying he’s only elite in salary, which is a very true statement. The Bears aren’t in a good spot now, but I believe in talented teams turning things around. This isn’t asking for JaMarcus Russell to suddenly play well on a rotten Oakland team. I’m just looking for Cutler, Marshall, Jeffery, Forte and Bennett to score 24+ points on a New England defense missing the likes of Jerod Mayo and Chandler Jones. Let’s not forget the Patriots have barely squeaked by the Raiders and Jets at home this year. This team isn’t dominant. Chicago has the weapons to make this a high-scoring game and if the Bears can win the turnover battle, I think they’ll win the game.

But it’s still Jay Cutler and that’s why I expect multiple interceptions in Foxboro and a 3-5 record for the Bears. But it would be so New England to have a shocking home loss to be followed up with a win over the best team in the league next week (Denver).

Final prediction: Bears 20, Patriots 27

Colts at Steelers: Who Do I Really Like?

The Colts and Steelers are meeting for just the fifth time since the 2003 season. It was actually during their 2002 meeting, a 28-10 Pittsburgh win, that I started to appreciate the Colts with Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy. I guess I had enough of the Kordell Stewart  “run, run, incomplete pass, punt” offense and was drawn to Manning’s passing and no-huddle offense approach. So you might think I’m conflicted with which team to root for this weekend. That’s been true in the past, especially in the 2005 playoffs — one of the toughest days of my football-viewing life — and the 2008 meeting.

But on Sunday, I frankly don’t care who wins the game. You can say I’m outgrowing my fandom, and the consistent stream of .500 results from the Steelers has done a good job of accelerating that. I’m not going to drop the line of “I have 32 favorite teams now because I’m a writer”, because that’s a bunch of bullshit. But really, I don’t care who wins this one. I just want to see a good game and I think this can be one with both teams scoring in the 20’s.

These teams have changed quite a bit since the 2011 meeting, which I only bring up because it was the night Curtis Painter almost beat the Steelers and Jonathan Scott tried to block Dwight Freeney with his ass.

It didn’t work out on Monday, but I think this is the first time I’m picking against the Steelers in back-to-back home games. Indianapolis is better on both sides of the ball and has been playing better coming into this game. I expect the Colts will have a good day offensively as long as they control their turnovers. The real matchup is the Pittsburgh offense against Indianapolis’ surprisingly good defense. Two areas I see as a concern are handling the Colts’ blitz on third down and throwing deep. They don’t have Robert Mathis so they’re being really creative with sending guys from anywhere to get pressure, and it’s been working. The Steelers haven’t protected Ben Roethlisberger well (statement pasted from a clipboard) and this could be a game where he takes 5+ sacks (also from a clipboard). Ben’s deep passing has been lacking the last few weeks in regards to his sideline throws. He’s not keeping them in bounds. He did hit a nice one down the seam to Martavis Bryant on Monday, but I think he’s going to have a hard time on those throws against Indy’s cornerbacks, who are playing very well right now.

Final prediction: Colts 27, Steelers 23

NFL Week 8 Predictions

I had Denver on TNF, but again I would have been screwed on the point spread. That’s the first time in 15 meetings Peyton Manning has beat the Chargers by more than 11 points, and the first time he’s beat them by more than 8 points without a defensive touchdown.

Winners in bold:

  • Lions at Falcons
  • Dolphins at Jaguars
  • Ravens at Bengals
  • Vikings at Buccaneers
  • Seahawks at Panthers
  • Bills at Jets
  • Bears at Patriots
  • Rams at Chiefs
  • Texans at Titans
  • Eagles at Cardinals
  • Colts at Steelers
  • Raiders at Browns
  • Packers at Saints
  • Redskins at Cowboys

Really tough call with Vikings-Bucs. Teddy Bridgewater definitely had an easy time with a bad defense (ATL) and struggled with the good ones (DET/BUF). The Bucs are a rotten one, but I’m leaning on home-field, bye week improvements and a big game from Gerald McCoy here. I also think Mike Glennon is solid. It’s the defense that’s the bigger problem, which is the opposite of what you should have expected in Tampa Bay this season.

Season Results

  • Week 1: 8-8
  • Week 2: 9-7
  • Week 3: 11-5
  • Week 4: 8-5
  • Week 5: 11-4
  • Week 6: 9-5-1
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Total: 66-39-1

NFL Week 6 Predictions: Brady, Benny and the Jets

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

With respect to a locked-in Philip Rivers and the improving Andrew Luck, I’ve known the AFC of the last decade to be dominated by three quarterbacks: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger.

They’ve represented the AFC in 10 of the last 11 Super Bowls. On Sunday, they all face a familiar AFC foe with history well in their favor.

  • Tom Brady is 22-2 against Buffalo with 54 TD, 19 INT (100.1 PR).
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 18-1 against Cleveland with 28 TD, 13 INT (97.7 PR).

Those records are as good as it gets for a quarterback against a divisional opponent, but what does it really tell us? I find three main takeaways:

1. Despite many changes around them over the years, Brady and Roethlisberger have been two of the league’s best quarterbacks and will both be in the Hall of Fame. They play consistently well against a lot of different teams.

2. The Bills and Browns are two of the NFL’s most consistent losers. The Bills haven’t been in the playoffs since 1999 and the Browns 2.0 have one playoff season (lost to the Steelers for the third time in 2002).

3. Then there’s the makeup of these teams. Brady and Roethlisberger usually enjoy good defenses, while the Browns and Bills have struggled to find a quarterback capable of scoring many points. So these meetings turn into a lot of easy wins for Ben and Brady. Even when they don’t play well, it’s usually a win (see Week 17 last year for both).

If there was ever a time when Brady and Roethlisberger could both lose to their helpless rivals in the same season, it’s on Sunday.

Both will be on the road. Steelers-Browns is the first rematch of the 2014 season. Cleveland erased a 24-point deficit in the second half in Week 1 and nearly won in Pittsburgh. The Bills have roughed up Brady in the past, holding him under 5.6 YPA in both meetings last year (Doug Marrone’s first season as coach).  The problem is the New England running game usually stomps all over Buffalo’s poor run defense, but some are still skeptical of the offensive line this year.

These games could be very intriguing with first place in the AFC East on the line in Patriots-Bills. I’m not sold that Kyle Orton is ready to deliver against a defense that’s good at creating turnovers. In Cleveland, I think Roethlisberger will have a solid day leading the offense. Joe Haden has not been able to stop Antonio Brown in past meetings and they could pick on the rookie Justin Gilbert again. The problem is on defense. The Steelers don’t create turnovers while the Browns have been protecting the ball very well. The Browns are effective on the ground and with using play-action passing — two things that have plagued the Steelers of recent years.

I know better than to pick against the Patriots again. As for the other game, it’s just not in my nature to pick the Browns over the Steelers even if I think there’s a good chance the Browns take this game at home.

Final predictions:

Patriots 20, Bills 13

Steelers 24, Browns 21

Then there’s Peyton Manning and the Broncos against Rex Ryan’s Jets, losers of four straight. This one has the ingredients for a Denver blowout. The Jets are the 4th defense since 1940 to allow at least 12 touchdown passes and no more than one interception in the first five games of a season. How can they contend with Denver’s receiving corps, especially after Demaryius Thomas got on track with a huge game last week? Shut down Demaryius and the Broncos still have Emmanuel Sanders, who has caught 32-of-42 passes for 435 yards. His implementation into the offense has been immediately effective and highly efficient. Welker’s working his way back from a concussion and suspension. Then of course there’s Julius Thomas, who already has seven touchdowns. The Broncos can’t run the ball well, but that’s not what they’re going to rely on to beat the Jets.

Geno Smith has to start at quarterback, because we know Michael Vick isn’t the answer for any NFL team. Regardless, the Jets need a miracle to win this game to avoid a 1-5 start. I just don’t see any reasonable manner in which they pull this one off. Manning has done very well against much better Ryan defenses in the past.

  • Peyton Manning vs. Rex Ryan as Ravens DC/Jets HC (2005-10): 5-2 record, 126/197 (64%) for 1,738 yards, 8.82 YPA, 13 TD, 2 INT, 109.9 PR

One of the losses was the “Curtis Painter Game” in 2009. The second was in the last meeting, 17-16 in the 2010 AFC Wild Card, after the Jets scored on a last-second field goal.

Since 2009, 17 of the 18 teams to beat Manning scored at least 26 points. That 17-16 Jets game is the outlier. 

That’s also the last time Ryan had a winning team. To beat Manning’s Broncos, you have to score a lot of points and/or shrink the game by being efficient and effective on offense. That’s not the Jets.

Final prediction:

Broncos 34, Jets 14

NFL Week 6 Predictions

I had the Colts on Thursday, and for a change we actually had a good game I get to write about.

Winners in bold:

  • Lions at Vikings
  • Panthers at Bengals
  • Ravens at Buccaneers
  • Steelers at Browns
  • Packers at Dolphins
  • Broncos at Jets
  • Patriots at Bills
  • Jaguars at Titans
  • Chargers at Raiders
  • Cowboys at Seahawks
  • Bears at Falcons
  • Redskins at Cardinals
  • Giants at Eagles
  • 49ers at Rams

I had a lot of road teams, so I ended up changing some 50/50 picks at the last second to go with Vikings and Bengals at home.

Forget DeMarco Murray’s rarefied rushing company to start this season. Forget Russell Wilson’s rushing numbers on Monday night. I will be shocked if Marshawn Lynch isn’t the dominant player in Sunday’s big game against Dallas and its 32nd-ranked run defense. Don’t count the Cowboys out. Tony Romo led Dallas to a win in New Orleans (13-0 at the time) in 2009 and also knocked off the 9-0 Colts in 2006. Those are big wins, and yes, they really happened. This could be a good one, but who really wants to bet against Seattle at home right now?

Season Results

  • Week 1: 8-8
  • Week 2: 9-7
  • Week 3: 11-5
  • Week 4: 8-5
  • Week 5: 11-4
  • Total: 47-29

NFL Week 4 Predictions: Ground Control to Major Tom Brady, Your Circuit’s Dead

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

“You come at the king, you best not miss.”

I’m not here to shovel dirt on Tom Brady’s career today. Technically, everyone’s career is closer to death with each passing day, but the boldness of declaring Brady finished is something I would need far more evidence to dare write.

However, let’s evaluate some troubling numbers.

Just passing for 200 yards and/or multiple touchdowns has become a struggle for Brady dating back to late last season. Brady hasn’t thrown multiple touchdown passes in his last seven games — one shy of the longest streak of his career (came in 2001).

In each of his last eight games, Brady has been held under 8.0 yards per pass attempt, one of the longest streaks in his career. The lowly Oakland defense held him to 6.32 YPA at home last week.

For the second year in a row the Patriots have gotten off to a slow start offensively, but this year isn’t about a massive turnover at receiver. Julian Edelman is impossible to cover underneath and he’s caught 22 out of 28 targets. Rob Gronkowski is back, though he’s been limited in his recovery from a torn ACL. Danny Amendola is there, but he’s not been the success the Patriots gambled on when deciding to move on from Wes Welker. Then there are the outside wide receivers that tend to occupy milk cartons in this offense. Brandon LaFell has caught 4-of-14 targets from Brady. Kenbrell Thompkins has 53 yards on 11 targets. Aaron Dobson has barely seen the field with injuries.

This year’s new problem is the offensive line. Subtract Logan Mankins, and more importantly, subtract OL coach Dante Scarnecchia, and without that pristine pass protection or consistent run blocking, you get an offense that ranks last in the league in yards per play (4.3). Yes, even below the Jaguars (4.6).

Some of the problems are new, but some have been there for Brady’s entire career. They’ve just been masked better by superior coaching and talent. Brady’s not a scrambler. He’s not one for extending plays. He won’t break out of sacks. He’s not a great vertical passer able to stretch the field on any given play. He’ll dink-and-dunk a defense to death, only to set up a big play at the opportune moment.

And at 2-1, the Patriots are still technically winning, even if it’s all about a defense that’s allowed a total of 16 points to Minnesota and Oakland the last two weeks.

Brady winning despite inefficiency with passing the ball is an old story. He has the best record of any QB since 1960 in games with 6.5 YPA or worse (minimum 15 attempts). Only 7 quarterbacks (min. 40 games) have a winning record when they average no more than 6.5 YPA:

  1. Tom Brady (41-25, .621)
  2. Roger Staubach (25-16, .610)
  3. Jim McMahon (25-18, .581)
  4. Kordell Stewart (26-23, .531)
  5. Jake Delhomme (21-19, .525)
  6. Jay Schroeder (21-19, .525)
  7. Jack Kemp (25-24-2, .510)

Some of these players had rushing value you don’t get with Brady, but dominant defense was also a common theme here.

If you lowered the bar to 6.0 YPA (minimum 30 games), Brady again has the best record ever at 27-20 (.547) when including playoffs. That’s more than a full yard per attempt below the league average. Only five quarterbacks since 1960 have a winning record in that situation (McMahon, Stewart, Len Dawson, and Jim Kelly) with a minimum 30 games.

Does that make Brady special? Not really, but it does say a lot for Bill Belichick and the Patriots. They find different ways to win, but if Brady’s playing like this against competition like Miami/Minnesota/Oakland, then how can the Patriots expect to win a championship this year?

I had another theory about Brady’s winning record with bad YPA. Not all sub-6.0 YPA games are created equally. Maybe Brady does other things well on those days, such as a higher completion percentage and good touchdown-interception ratio. So I looked at my growing database of QB game logs (regular season only) and looked at every game (min. 10 attempts) thru 2013 where the QB averaged no better than 6.0 YPA. Then I summed those numbers together to produce the following table (click to enlarge). It’s not a conclusive list — I have about 90 players and many of them are very good — but it gives us an idea of general performance.

Using 85 quarterbacks with a minimum of 400 attempts, I ranked everyone best-to-worst on sub-6.0 days for stats like completion percentage, YPA, TD%, INT%, passer rating (PR) and win pct. I also ranked each QB based on his team’s scoring averages: points for (PF) and points allowed (PA). These scoring numbers were not adjusted for return scores.

sub6

Brady ranks well above average here in everything, but especially in regards to TD% and INT%. Where he’s not as impressive as some of his peers are completion percentage (13th) and the stat this table is built around, YPA (27th). Brady’s 7th in scoring, but he’s had the luxury of the 8th-best scoring defense here, which is true for most of the quarterbacks with a winning record. A guy that actually shows up very well here statistically is Andy Dalton (highest TD%, passer rating and team scoring average), but these numbers could use some opponent adjustments.  Peyton Manning was a tenth away two Dallas QBs from having the highest completion percentage and highest YPA.

Remember, these are all regular-season numbers. Including the playoffs would actually improve Brady’s record, because he somehow went 5-3 when averaging <=6.0 YPA. There’s the rub though. Brady started 5-0 in the playoffs when doing that, but since the 2007 season when the Patriots shifted to an offensive-first team, he’s 0-3 like you would expect from that low average.

When the Patriots take on Kansas City on Monday night, which Brady will show up? A KC win would bring the Chiefs even in record with the Patriots and further add to the AFC’s mediocrity this season. It’s hard to imagine Brady not having his best game this month under the bright lights, but maybe we need to temper expectations for this 37-year-old quarterback. Maybe those dominant performances from 2007-2012 are a thing of the past. Maybe last year was the beginning of the end. All careers have to wind down and end eventually.

Any previous matchup between a Tom Brady offense and an Alex Smith offense would be a no-brainer. But this week, it’s not so clear which quarterback is the one who struggles to stretch the field and must rely on his defense and running game. This is the closest in caliber Brady and Smith have been in their NFL careers.

If that’s not cause for concern in New England, then I don’t know what is. But I like the Patriots this week, because I know this has never truly been a team that lives or die by its quarterback play. Bill Belichick versus Andy Reid is the real mismatch, and I expect The Hood to improve to 5-0 vs. Big Red.

Final prediction: Patriots 24, Chiefs 16

Bonus prediction: Brady will end his streak of games without multiple touchdown passes…barely.

NFL Week 4 Predictions

I screwed up my first Thursday pick after Kirk Cousins went full Buccaneer against the Giants. Not every defense plays like Jacksonville and Philadelphia.

Cousins only has 341 official dropbacks in the regular season, but his turnover rate is 5.87 percent. How bad is that? Let’s just say Mark Sanchez (5.29%) and Rex Grossman (5.30%) think it’s too high to remain a starter in today’s NFL.

Winners in bold:

  • Packers at Bears
  • Panthers at Ravens
  • Bills at Texans
  • Lions at Jets
  • Dolphins at Raiders
  • Titans at Colts
  • Buccaneers at Steelers
  • Jaguars at Chargers
  • Falcons at Vikings
  • Eagles at 49ers
  • Saints at Cowboys
  • Patriots at Chiefs

Season Results

  • Week 1: 8-8
  • Week 2: 9-7
  • Week 3: 11-5
  • Total: 28-20

NFL Week 3 Predictions: Broncos vs. Seahawks, Take Two

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I never wrote a formal recap of  the stunning domination that was Super Bowl XLVIII by Seattle over Denver. It’s the only time since the 2011 season I didn’t write a weekly recap of the NFL’s close games, because it’s the only week there weren’t any close games. We have been spoiled by great Super Bowls, and this one had all the right ingredients for a classic. It was the highest-scoring offense against a great defense. Then the highest-scoring offense in NFL history couldn’t execute a snap on the first play from scrimmage, and it was all downhill from there.

It’s probably the biggest disappointment I’ve experienced as an NFL fan in general. 43-8? Thanks for the unique score, I guess. Whatever happens in Week 3, where the schedule is seemingly titled to give this “rematch” full focus, won’t make up for the lack of competitiveness in February.

For me, the Seahawks need this win more, because they’re 1-1 in a tougher division and Denver is 2-0. It’s not like Seattle can’t rebound from 1-2, but some doubt will creep up for a team that’s as much of a favorite to repeat as any we’ve seen in years.

I think the Broncos need to show February was just an outlier. If these teams met 50 times, I’m not sure it would ever get more lopsided in Seattle’s favor than the one result that counted. Denver can’t afford a repeat, or else there will be major doubt in its ability to hang with this Seattle team. There’s nothing even close to a guarantee they’ll have to get through them to win a championship this year, but it’s certainly possible. Denver winning this game in Seattle, where we know the Seahawks are 18-1 with Russell Wilson at QB and have been extra dominant defensively, would be a big confidence builder and would help lower Seattle’s playoff chances in the process.

So what the hell went wrong on February 2, and what has really changed in seven months to expect a different outcome this time?

I wrote a really long preview for the Super Bowl, and some of it turned out to be relevant. Marshawn Lynch wasn’t a factor, Percy Harvin’s kick return value iced the game, and Seattle’s third-down pass defense was extremely decisive with two interceptions.

Denver had to be sick when watching the film on this game if only for the simple fact that the Seahawks wrapped this thing up on the strength of a couple of plays.

By the time it was 22-0 in the second quarter, Peyton Manning had thrown two incompletions of consequence.

Both were interceptions and both were the result of quick edge pressure. Now don’t get me wrong. Seattle made sure every yard and first down was like pulling teeth for the Broncos, but a long Denver drive was building when it was 15-0, then that fateful 3rd-and-13 happened. Cliff Avril again got the pressure, but this time he hit Manning while throwing and the ball just so happened to land in Malcolm Smith’s possession for a pick-six. That pretty much wrapped it up there, but Harvin’s kick return to make it 29-0 guaranteed the second half would be irrelevant.

The game was about pressure. Denver’s offense allowed the lowest rate of pressure all season, but Seattle’s defense generated the most of any defense in the last four years. Manning was only pressured about five percentage points more often than usual in this game, but it was extremely effective to get interceptions on third down. Meanwhile, no offense allowed more pressure than Seattle, but Wilson was not hit or sacked in this game by Denver’s defense, which also came away with zero takeaways (not even a forced fumble) in three playoff games last year.

Pressure’s not very consistent from year to year, but if Seattle can get some in key spots at home, they’re going to disrupt this offense again. The reconfiguration of Denver’s offensive line should help with a superior player like Ryan Clady at left tackle, but the noise is going to be an issue. Denver stupidly didn’t prepare for crowd noise in the neutral-site Super Bowl, despite having a head coach that’s been there before and Manning also should have known better. I’m sure a tactic like the silent count has been worked on this week and we’ll see Denver more prepared for the noise, but it’s obviously a significant factor in playing at Seattle.

Besides Clady, what else has changed? Seattle still looks very similar on paper, but the Broncos have 13 new starters compared to who started at each position in February. That includes a secondary Seattle didn’t see any of with Rahim Moore (IR), TJ Ward (CLE), Aqib Talib (NE) and Chris Harris (IR) plus rookie CB Bradley Roby. That also includes DeMarcus Ware (DAL) and Von Miller (IR), who must generate pressure on Wilson to have success in this game. On offense there’s Emmanuel Sanders, who will take over for Eric “Charmin Soft” Decker, who had a pathetic performance in the big game. That’s a lot of guys that don’t know anything about 43-8, because they didn’t play that day.

For Denver to keep it close in Seattle, this new defense must get after Wilson and continue containing Lynch on the ground. Keep in mind Seattle actually ranks second to Denver in points per drive thru Week 2 this year. Denver’s defense has had two suspect performances at home against the Colts and Chiefs. Alex Smith was moving well and dealing on third down last week. Denver’s new-look defense looks a lot like last year’s struggling unit despite all the changes. Harvin gave them some nightmares with the jet sweep, but defenses league-wide have to start getting prepared for that better. Seattle may also chill a bit after a horrible time to run it in San Diego with the game on the line last week (the play lost six yards).

Offensively, I would imagine Sanders or Andre Caldwell will occupy Richard Sherman, but I strongly disagree with the strategy to avoid him for the entire game like we saw in Week 1 with Green Bay. You can’t just surrender a side of the field to the defense like that. If the guy Sherman’s covering is open, throw it there. Philip Rivers didn’t show that fear last week and it turned out fine for him. Denver can keep Demaryius away from Sherman, but there’s no reason to purposely stay away from him all game long.

Demaryius also hasn’t played that well to start this season. He had an interesting Super Bowl with a lot catches, but not for a lot of yards, because Seattle’s defense swarmed and tackled so well. There just wasn’t much YAC, and that’s the kind of offense Denver has evolved into with “Old Peyton”. He’s going to have to try loosening them up a bit more with intermediate (15-25 yards) routes. It can’t be a lot of screens or Seattle will continue stifling this offense.

The key to this game is Julius Thomas, but after the trouble Antonio Gates gave Seattle last week, don’t you think both sides expect that? Julius has looked great this year, but I’m skeptical he can make the tough catches the veteran Gates did last week. He’s still young and learning. He wasn’t much of a factor in the Super Bowl, but for Denver to win this game, he has to play big this week. I’m not fond of Wes Welker’s return to a physical matchup like this one. He might leave with yet another concussion. No matter who Peyton targets, you know the ball is coming out very quick. It was still coming out in 2.6 seconds in the Super Bowl, but that wasn’t enough against some of that crucial edge pressure.

What Denver must do differently is stick with the running game even if it’s not that efficient. Before two garbage-time carries by C.J. Anderson in the Super Bowl, the Broncos had 11 carries for 18 yards — the same numbers Denver had in a Week 15 loss to San Diego. That’s the worst rushing support Manning’s had in his 265-game career. The score had a lot to do with that, but Denver still abandoned the run.

San Diego stuck with the run despite its inefficiency last week so that Rivers didn’t have to make every play. He also got his running backs involved with nine catches, which I think Manning needs to do more of with Montee Ball and Anderson. Attack the short middle of the field and flats. I feel like last year Denver watched San Diego shred Dallas, albeit a horrific defense, and used some of that knowledge (similar offense with Mike McCoy) in the following week in that classic 51-48 win in Dallas. The Broncos could once again learn a few things from San Diego’s trial run against Seattle.

All the talk after the Super Bowl was that Denver’s just not physical enough to beat Seattle (or San Francisco). Well, it just so happens they caught a break with the schedule and will play this NFC West this year. So the first litmus test is this week in the toughest place to play in the NFL right now. I’m not sure how a team gets “tougher” without a simple dose of more running plays. This is still a Manning-led offense, which has pretty much looked the same as it always has this season. It’s always been about execution, but rarely has the execution ever been so poor as it was that night in February, and while Seattle had a lot to do with that, there are some opportunities for Denver to make corrections and give us a more competitive game this time.

I think that’s enough analysis for a Week 3 game, so onto the prediction.

Final prediction: Seahawks 27, Broncos 20

NFL Week 3 Predictions

Can we get a Thursday game that’s not won by 20+ points by the home team? I picked Atlanta to win, but that was embarrassing, Tampa Bay. I’m glad I picked you to finish last place in the division, but 7-9 is looking far too kind.

Winners in bold:

  • Ravens at Browns
  • Chargers at Bills
  • Vikings at Saints
  • Texans at Giants
  • Colts at Jaguars
  • Cowboys at Rams
  • Titans at Bengals
  • Raiders at Patriots
  • Packers at Lions
  • Redskins at Eagles
  • 49ers at Cardinals
  • Broncos at Seahawks
  • Chiefs at Dolphins
  • Steelers at Panthers
  • Bears at Jets

Season Results

  • Week 1: 8-8
  • Week 2: 9-7
  • Total: 17-15

I only picked six of them, but I like a lot of the road teams this week. Ravens can certainly win, but I like Cleveland’s rushing attack right now and maybe the football gods will intervene here if you’ve been following the news.

NFL Week 2 Predictions: The Matthew Stafford Playoff Predictor

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Boy, after this week Roger Goodell could use an Oswald Cobblepot-type scheme to rescue a “kidnapped” baby to regain public support. Just don’t get caught with the “I played this stinking city like a harp from hell!” audio afterwards.

No matter how many times I try to run through a Ray Rice/Peterson-related monologue in my head, it just doesn’t come out right. Frankly, I’m tired of hearing about this stuff all week, so adding to it wouldn’t be very beneficial to anyone. It’s dominated the headlines, so instead of talking about how the Vikings can use Cordarrelle Patterson to drop the Patriots to 0-2 (would be huge), it’s all Peterson talk in Minnesota.

These stories aren’t the NFL I know. They’re the stories we hear every day on the local news, but now replaced with names of people we actually recognize. I just went to a local news’ website and found this familiar headline:

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Following the NFL for a living is a bit of an escape from all the constant reminders of the terrible things that happen across the world each day. Sometimes they happen in the NFL too, but this week (and month, really) has been especially bad.

This is still a human problem, far bigger than the NFL. How does it get better? That’s really not up to Goodell or the league to regulate human indecency. Unfortunately, we’ve had many years to find solutions with little progress. Someone, whether they’re a rich athlete or just living in Wilkinsburg, is going to beat their kids or spouse this weekend. If you listened to that dumbass woman with her Ray Rice jersey, some will think it’s justified.

Every time you justify, another good in you dies.
Faith and fear sears me, and love and you pull all the right strings.
“How we get older, how we forget about each other” she said.
Entwined within the sadder of days.

— Converge, The Saddest Day

Matthew Stafford: Playoff Predictor?

Before the 2013 season I had a stat on how Matthew Stafford was 1-23 against teams that finished the season with a winning record. Now obviously that’s not all his fault. He had good wins over 8-8 teams (otherwise 8-7), he played an unusually tough set of winning teams (none were-9-7) and had some good performances. Arguably the best game of his career was a comeback win over Seattle in 2012. But how did this progress last season when the Lions collapsed after a 6-3 start?

Early in the season, it was easy to joke that the Vikings and Redskins (2012 playoff teams) must be in store for a bad year after losing to Detroit. Then when the Bears were swept and the Cowboys were swept away by a last-minute drive, there were similar sentiments of these teams not finishing above .500. Of course, by season’s end none of those teams did finish above .500, but on Thanksgiving something unusual happened. The Lions mopped the floor with the Packers, who entered with a 5-5-1 record, but had their 4th starting quarterback after the big injury to Aaron Rodgers. That seemed to lock up the NFC North for Detroit, but it would never win another game and Stafford had a brutal December finish.

So he’s upped his record to 2-27 against winning teams, but that Green Bay win almost needs an asterisk. When the Packers had Rodgers earlier in the season, Detroit lost 22-9 in a game without Calvin Johnson.

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After Week 1, I feel pretty confident in saying the 2014 Giants are destined for a losing record, so Monday night’s game, which was one of Stafford’s best, tells me very little going forward. This week’s game in Carolina will be a much better test. I didn’t have the Panthers finishing above .500 this year, but they were good without Cam Newton in Tampa Bay last week. Derek Anderson really surprised me and the defense was pretty much as dominant as 2013. Cam’s back and this should be a highlight on Sunday’s schedule. Carolina had the best defensive DVOA in Week 1. Another strong performance and Stafford’s stock will deserve to  rise, but another dud and we could have a new addition to the table by December.

NFL Week 2 Predictions

Just .500 last week. I always feel Week 2 is one of the toughest of the year, because how much of last week was useful going forward? I had the Ravens on Thursday night, but the point spread would have killed me the last two weeks. I thought Ravens would win by 3 (the norm in this rivalry), but 26-6 was completely unexpected.

Winners in bold:

  • Patriots at Vikings
  • Cardinals at Giants
  • Falcons at Bengals
  • Saints at Browns
  • Jaguars at Redskins
  • Dolphins at Bills
  • Lions at Panthers
  • Cowboys at Titans
  • Rams at Buccaneers
  • Seahawks at Chargers
  • Chiefs at Broncos
  • Texans at Raiders
  • Jets at Packers
  • Bears at 49ers
  • Eagles at Colts

This is more about the schedule than actual quality of team, but a great shot for Houston to start 2-0. If all goes well for Denver, it could be 2-0 in  a division with three 0-2 teams by Sunday evening. I think Dallas gets back on track offensively and Tony Romo guides a narrow win on the road. The Colts rarely lose back-to-back regular-season games. The Eagles are a tough test, but I like a game-winning drive from Luck in a 31-28 final on Monday night.

Maybe this coming week the news will actually be on the games again.