NFL Week 13 Predictions

November 30, 2013 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I was going to type a rant about how we overstate the importance of quarterbacks who aren’t very good (think Sam Bradford) while it can never be overstated for teams like Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers).

But I’m left football speechless after what happened in the Alabama-Auburn game, so save the rant for next time. That could not have happened to a greater human being than Nick Saban. What kind of jackass bypasses a 30-yard field goal that would have made it 31-21, but tries a 57-yard kick with one second left? Even with a different kicker that’s a bad decision. You have to try the Hail Mary instead.

I just hope we don’t see Ohio State in the NC game.

NFL Week 13 Predictions

Last season the home teams were 0-3 on Thanksgiving. This year they were 3-0 and I had them all.

Jaguars at Browns
Bears at Vikings
Cardinals at Eagles
Patriots at Texans
Titans at Colts
Buccaneers at Panthers
Dolphins at Jets
Falcons at Bills
Rams at 49ers
Broncos at Chiefs
Bengals at Chargers
Giants at Redskins
Saints at Seahawks

I don’t have much confidence in any of these picks. Could be another wild week.

Season results:

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 6: 11-4
Week 7: 10-5
Week 8: 10-3
Week 9: 8-5
Week 10: 8-6
Week 11: 9-6
Week 12: 7-6-1
Season: 112-63-1

NFL Week 12 Predictions & Rebranding Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning

November 23, 2013November 24, 2013 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It’s Broncos vs. Patriots, Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady for the 14th time, but this actually is not that big of a game in the AFC given New England’s loss in Carolina. Even if the Broncos lose and the Chiefs win on Sunday, it’s the Week 13 game in Kansas City that those AFC teams will really need the most to control their destiny for the No. 1 seed.

Still, it’s a lot more interesting to talk Manning-Brady than Manning-Alex Smith. Last week’s outcome was predictable. This week’s may be as well given the last 13 meetings. I’m not going to do a full preview since I may be writing an article on Insider about the game for Monday, but I will preview some things relevant to Sunday night’s meeting.

While the greatest QB rivalry ever gets all the attention, the fact is there’s never been a Manning-Brady game that was a true shootout where both quarterbacks played great and moved their offenses up and down the field. In fact, there’s been a double-digit deficit in all 13 meetings and Manning’s team has trailed by 17+ points in eight games. These matchups often come down to Manning trying to make a huge comeback, Brady failing in the four-minute offense and the New England defense either holds or allows the game-winning points.

Whether it’s the first time or the 14th, the real matchup is Manning vs. Bill Belichick: the superior quarterback against the superior team/coach.

Even in those first meetings in 2001, when this rivalry didn’t exist yet, you could see that theme of “QB vs. team.” Brady opened up a 23-0 lead on Manning in their first career meeting. He was 6-of-13 passing for 52 yards at that point in the game. In the rematch in Indy, the Patriots led 28-3 in the 2nd quarter. At that point, Brady was 7/7 for 134 yards and a TD — strong numbers for sure, but 91 yards came on one play. Meanwhile, Manning was 12-of-18 for 181 yards (sacked 3 times). Does that sound like a QB mismatch worthy of a 28-3 score? Of course not. Mike Vanderjagt had two field goals blocked in the first quarter (when does that ever happen?) and Edgerrin James fumbled.

That’s the kind of stuff that repeatedly tends to happen when these QBs play each other, because the Patriots are better at forcing mistakes and stopping teams from doing what they do best. That’s great coaching.

Belichick’s been there for every meeting while Manning will go to battle with what is technically his fifth different head coach (interim Jack Del Rio). In most of the first 13 games, Manning’s teams made a plethora of mistakes that Belichick’s teams capitalize on best. Manning’s team is -13 in turnover differential against New England.

Often the strength of Manning’s team defenses is the edge rushers. That’s not the best way to attack Brady, who can step up in the pocket and pick apart the Colts/Broncos underneath, which he’s done several times over the years. The Patriots also run the ball better than Manning’s offense, so they’re not as one dimensional. Last season against Denver Brady handed it off 50 times for 253 yards — the most rushing support of his career. That includes a back-breaking 19-yard run on 3rd-and-17 by Danny Woodhead.

Head-to-head rushing support:

Manning – 329 carries for 1,290 yards (3.92 YPC)
Brady – 356 carries for 1,641 yards (4.61 YPC)

In game 14 of the rivalry, Brady will have home-field advantage for the ninth time. Brady has the better defense for the 12th time. Manning only had the better defense, measured by points per drive, in 2005 (40-21 win) and last year even though the Patriots were better at the start of the season and certainly better than Denver on that day.

Speaking of in-game results out of the QB’s control, Brady’s had the better starting field position in eight of the games.

For those counting at home, we have Manning with inferior coaching, less help from his running game and he has to drive longer fields, often on the road, against superior defenses. So the 4-9 record proves what exactly? Oh yeah, the Patriots have a better team and coach.

Manning has averaged at least 39.6 yards per drive in seven of his last eight games against Belichick’s defense. That’s good enough to lead the league most seasons, so that’s a great number. But in the last two games in Foxboro, his offense threw away too many drives. Manning threw 3 interceptions in 2010. Last season with Denver, Demaryius Thomas and Willis McGahee fumbled in the red zone, Manning fumbled to put Brady in the red zone and McGahee dropped a 4th-and-1 pass. When you get the ball 10 times in a game, you can’t piss away four drives like that and expect to win. It’s the only game in Manning’s Denver career where he could not get any closer than within 10 points in the 4th quarter. His Broncos are 22-5 despite a -5 turnover differential.

That’s a big part of the reason I like the Patriots to win this week.

New England is coming off a tough loss in Carolina and rarely ever loses two in a row. The Patriots also did not get a takeaway. You have to go back to games 4-6 of the 2005 season to find the last time the Patriots had consecutive games without a takeaway. They’re going to get some in this game, because when you throw in some cold weather, that ball’s going to be hard to control for a Denver team with poor ball security. Even Manning has career highs with 8 fumbles (6 lost) this year.

When the Patriots win the turnover battle at home, they’re 68-2 since 2001.

On the point about the cold — some forecasts have it being under 30 or so tomorrow night — I’m not worried about it in the context of Manning’s performance. He’s long overdue for a statistical letdown game, but it won’t happen because of the weather. Since some can’t get the numbers right, here’s every Manning game with a game-time temperature of 40 degrees or less:

Clearly this is a narrative built on losing a couple of playoff games (light blue) in 02-04 in New Jersey and New England. Otherwise, where’s the problem here?

Belichick is going to take away what Denver does best. He’s smart enough to know Demaryius Thomas is the key to this offense, so look for Aqib Talib (assuming he’s healthy enough to play) to lock up, some times illegally, Thomas. He won’t shut him down, but the Patriots can’t afford a huge game from him.

Wes Welker, concussion and all, probably will have a huge game for that reason. Belichick would rather give up shorter plays to Welker than the big ones to Thomas, who is the Denver skill player capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. Julius Thomas was questionable the last time I looked, so he could be slowed by injury. Eric Decker’s opportunity is huge in this one as he’s probably the healthiest and should get the most favorable coverage.

Denver made it a point to protect Manning’s ankle against the Chiefs. Without hearing much about that this week, I expect you’ll see the Patriots generate more pressure than the Chiefs did, which was almost nothing. The advantage Manning has is this New England secondary is really banged up with several DBs listed as questionable and their playing statuses up in the air. If Manning can get enough protection to have his 4-5 receiving options running routes, then he should have a big game against this defense.

However, like last year it’s not going to matter without the Denver defense and Del Rio finally showing they can slow Brady down. Del Rio never has and while I’m not worried about old Jacksonville games, the three New England wins over Denver since 2011 are troubling. Von Miller’s not as effective if the Broncos aren’t leading, which is the same problem the Colts faced with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis when they went up against the Patriots.

I’d welcome a legit shootout between the two HOF QBs for a change, but I just don’t see it happening. If I had to pick a previous Manning-Brady matchup for the one Sunday night will resemble most, I’d say last year’s game if NE wins, and 2006 regular season (27-20) if the Broncos win. It’s not likely Brady has a four-pick parade though.

So in the greatest QB rivalry, nothing’s really changed. Manning’s always been a better QB than Brady, but in the ultimate team game, I have to go with New England this week. That should give the Broncos extra motivation for their true big road game of the regular season: Week 13 in Kansas City.

Final prediction: Broncos 28, Patriots 35

NFL Week 12 Predictions

The game only had 30 total points, but the Saints came out on top as I expected.

Chargers at Chiefs
Bears at Rams
Jaguars at Texans
Buccaneers at Lions
Vikings at Packers
Panthers at Dolphins
Jets at Ravens
Steelers at Browns
Colts at Cardinals
Titans at Raiders
Cowboys at Giants
Broncos at Patriots
49ers at Redskins

Season results:

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 6: 11-4
Week 7: 10-5
Week 8: 10-3
Week 9: 8-5
Week 10: 8-6
Week 11: 9-6
Season: 105-57

NFL Week 11 Predictions & Chiefs-Broncos Preview

November 17, 2013November 17, 2013 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We have three key games to focus on this week (49ers at Saints, Chiefs at Broncos and Patriots at Panthers), but one stands above the rest.

Chiefs at Broncos

I’ve already had a lot to say and tweet about this game, so I’m not going to repeat much of that here.

Simply put, I don’t believe in the Chiefs’ 9-0 record or that their defense is one of the all-time best. I think it’s a reflection of who they have played, which shouldn’t impress anyone. The Denver offense is historically impressive and has dominated to a higher level than the Chiefs’ defense. There’s also stronger correlation and consistency in maintaining offensive performance than there is defense. You can throw a touchdown to Wes Welker many times in the red zone, but once in a blue moon will you get Jeff Tuel’s gracious peace offering for a 100-yard pick-six.

The only reason I don’t think the Broncos easily win by 17+ points is because Kansas City’s catching them at the best possible time. The Chiefs had a bye week to rest and prepare. Jack Del Rio is in at interim head coach following John Fox’s surgery. Peyton Manning aggravated his high ankle sprain at the end of last week’s game and we don’t know how he’ll handle the outside pressure since his tackles are struggling. It’s also going to be pretty cold and while the “Manning in bad weather” thing is BS, no old quarterback with neck and ankle issues is going to benefit from that.

What I do know is you have to score a lot of points to beat a Peyton Manning team and I don’t think Alex Smith is capable of doing it on Sunday night. This so-called “winner” is 2-23 when his team allows more than 24 points. He’s 11-24 against teams with a winning record and has 35 TD to 40 INT in those games (just one 300-yard passing game). He’s 5-16 on the road against good teams and averages 164 passing yards in those contests.

Maybe Smith can get it done in Arrowhead in a 23-20 game (against Brock Osweiler given his luck lately), but the Denver defense plays better at home and Von Miller is going to have his say too.

To beat Manning you have to put up a lot of points or shrink the game and limit his possessions, forcing him to be basically perfect (maximum efficiency). The Chiefs have done neither this season. The offense has never scored more than 24 points and their games almost always include double-digit possessions.

Excluding those pesky playoff rest games, here’s every Manning loss since 2007 and what his defense did (kneel-down drives excluded):

For context, anything above 3.0 Pts/Dr is incredibly elite while 2.48 Pts/Dr means you have to be a top-2 offense. 1.80 would be just above average in recent seasons.

You have to go back to the 6-INT night in San Diego to find a game where Manning lost despite the opposing offense being below average in scoring. Darren Sproles had two return touchdowns and even then Manning was a missed 29-yard field goal by Adam Vinatieri in erasing a 23-0 deficit for a win. Even if the Chiefs get a lead of 17-24 points, we know from every Denver loss since 2012 that those aren’t safe.

Meanwhile here’s the Chiefs’ 2013 offense and their per-drive production:

So let’s see… The Chiefs average 1.58 Pts/Dr this year and this is despite having the best average starting field position in football. I noticed a lot of their scoring drives started deep in opponent territory, so their scoring is even less impressive than it already sounds. They feast on mistakes, which the Broncos are certainly guilty of since 2012, so ball security is a must this week.

In Manning’s last 19 losses, no one had less than 1.89 Pts/Dr. That would be the 3rd-best game of the season for the Chiefs.

Given you seemingly need to hit at least 2.0 Pts/Dr to beat Manning, who’s expecting the Chiefs’ offense to deliver on their end? There’s Jamaal Charles, but there’s not much else to worry about.

Simply put, Manning hasn’t lost to an offense this bad since David Carr and the 2006 Houston Texans (ranked 23rd with 1.50 Pts/Dr). How did that one work out? Houston rushed for 191 yards, limited Manning to six possessions, got one fumble from Dominic Rhodes and still needed a 48-yard game-winning field goal with no time left in a 27-24 game.

The KC defense should not give up 40+, but nothing short of their offense having their best game of the season will win this one. I also don’t think the Chiefs can win without being at least +2 in turnover differential.

According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs have the No. 2 pass defense (DVOA). Here’s a table of Manning’s last 29 games against a top 5 pass defense (DVOA) since 2003. Playoff rest games are colored as are the five games I would consider “bad performances” from Manning. That’s an unscientific way of saying games where he was more of the problem than the solution for his team.

We’ll revisit this matchup in two weeks and perhaps again in January, but I just see the Broncos as a superior team even if they are vulnerable right now.

Final prediction: Chiefs 16, Broncos 27.

2013 NFL Week 11 Predictions

The Colts rarely make it look easy, but I had them on TNF.

Winners in bold:

Redskins at Eagles
Raiders at Texans
Falcons at Buccaneers
Browns at Bengals
Ravens at Bears
Lions at Steelers
Jets at Bills
Cardinals at Jaguars
Chargers at Dolphins
49ers at Saints
Packers at Giants
Vikings at Seahawks
Chiefs at Broncos
Patriots at Panthers

Season results:

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 6: 11-4
Week 7: 10-5
Week 8: 10-3
Week 9: 8-5
Week 10: 8-6
Season: 96-51

NFL Week 10 Predictions & 2013 Midseason Awards

November 9, 2013 ~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

The 2013 NFL season is halfway over and we know just a little more than we did in August.

We know four fairly consistent teams are sitting at 2-6 and possibly (likely?) headed for their first losing season in some time: Texans (2010), Falcons (2007), Giants (2004) and Steelers (2003). The Ravens (3-5) may soon join them for the first non-playoff season in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era. Too bad that “championship gene” dissolves easily in the offseason without enough talent and luck to keep it together.

It’s unclear how the coaches feel, but Mike Tomlin’s thoughts are easy to predict.

“Obviously, a variety of things create the end result, but it’s a result we’re going to take. We’ll tighten the screws, put a hat on a hat and continue to scoop the proof out of the pudding. We accept every serving we get this season. Sometimes it’s tough to chew, but everyone with a willing, hungry mouth will continue to get his plate filled this season. We have eight games remaining on our schedule and you can guarantee we look forward to completing each and every one of them.”

Speaking of standards being standards, we have a new high and low when it comes to 0-8 teams. The Buccaneers are the best 0-8 team ever while the Jaguars are the least competitive team since the 1970 merger. The Jaguars have trailed thru the end of every game after the 11:34 mark of the second quarter. It wouldn’t shock me if both win this weekend, but as far as 0-8 goes, these teams couldn’t be much different in how they’ve played.

It’s not only the win-less teams standing out for some of the wrong reasons…

Are the 2013 Chiefs the worst 9-0 team ever? Well, despite the soft schedule, their scoring margin is +104, which amazingly is one point ahead of my 2008 Titans (+103) comparison.
Are the 2013 Seahawks the worst 8-1 team ever? This has not been a dominant team and falling behind 21-0 to Tampa Bay will hopefully be a wake-up call.
Are the 2013 Patriots the worst 7-2 team ever? No, thanks to the Pittsburgh defense. With a favorable schedule, don’t count out a No. 1 seed (again) for them.

Oakland will not be the worst 2013 team as I predicted, but Sunday’s loss to Philadelphia sure looked like the team I expected to see often. Thanks for letting Nick Foles devalue the single-game touchdown pass record.

The Colts and Seahawks lead the league with three fourth-quarter comeback wins. Okay, not everything’s changed from last year. We’ll watch Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson battle for the most game-winning drives thru a player’s first two seasons:

We’ll also watch Peyton Manning try to break the records for passing touchdowns and yards in a season. The schedule will likely be too difficult to set any efficiency records, but the volume could go down. He also has the Broncos on pace for 686 points, which would smash the previous record (589):

Week 10 Viewing

Here are some mini-previews for what I’ll be focusing on Sunday afternoon.

Bills at Steelers – I can go on a really long rant about this one, but I’ll try to keep it short. This reeks of a game where the Steelers will do well at home against a rookie quarterback, bringing out the “Dick LeBeau is a master of defense!” narrative because he has a great record against rookies since 2004. He didn’t have to play against Ben Roethlisberger (2004). He didn’t face Matt Ryan (2008). He didn’t see Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson last year. When he played Robert Griffin III, the Redskins had damn-near 12 dropped passes in the game. They stopped themselves. I think the Buffalo running game is a major asset in this one, but EJ Manuel will have to play well in his first game back from injury, which I don’t particularly see happening.

Yet why should anything on Sunday erase the 55-point, 610-yard ass-kicking this defense suffered last week? How does he get a pass for this season for that matter? How can he live down TEBOW? That’s the root problem with the Steelers. No team rests on their laurels as much as they do. As deficiencies have crept up, there’s been no solutions from the GM or Tomlin on how to fix them. Apparently they will fix themselves because “we’re the Steelers, we’ve won six Super Bowls and we’re just going to do what we do.”

Well, the NFL is moving on without you, Pittsburgh. Hopefully you’ll soon turn out the lights in the trophy room and read up on how to build a winner in today’s NFL.

Panthers at 49ers – Both teams have a mobile QB drafted in 2011. Both teams have a stingy defense. Both teams have been on an ass-kicking run against ass-sucking competition. Is it as simple as going with the home team, who just so happens to be the more reliable option? I’m not quick to accept teams without a proven track record. This would be Carolina’s biggest win since at least 2009. We know this team is historically awful in close games and has very few quality wins over the years, so this would be a big step forward. The 49ers, we can trust them more due to the talent they have and their results the last two years under Jim Harbaugh, who had a bye week to prepare for this one.

If Carolina wins I can start to admit I was wrong about them, but they have to show it first. A team I was skeptical on years ago was the 2005 Bengals when Carson Palmer broke out and the defense was getting a ton of interceptions. Without a track record I refused to believe they were legit. I even foolishly made a statement that Palmer would never win a playoff game in his career. Well, he hasn’t, and the Bengals still haven’t won one either. However, I cannot take much credit as that torn ACL suffered in the playoff game certainly had an impact on his/their future.

That’s the NFL sometimes. You can make a prediction, be right about it, but if the reason is something you never had in mind, should you really take credit?

So I’m all about seeing what the Panthers do not only in this game, but against the Patriots in Week 11. Please, make me believe this year is different.

Broncos at Chargers – “Can” the Chargers beat the Broncos? The answer’s always yes to the “can” question, but what would be the reasons? One of them will not be “Mike McCoy knows the Denver offense because he used to be their coordinator!” as that’s a sorry excuse you often hear but rarely ever see matter in a game. Not everyone is as foolish as the 2002 Raiders in how they called the game against Jon Gruden.

Besides, it’s not McCoy’s offense, it’s Peyton Manning’s offense, which defenses haven’t really stopped since he was a rookie. However, when Manning plays San Diego, some weird shit tends to happen. Ask Kenton Keith or San Diego punter Mike Scifres. Last year, Eric Decker tripped and fell on what would have been an 85-yard touchdown. Three plays later Matt Willis ran the wrong route and it cost Denver a pick-six. In the rematch in Denver, Manning had a bubble screen tipped and returned for a touchdown.

If San Diego can put together long drives against a suspect defense (like they did against the Colts), but finish them for touchdowns, while getting some mistakes from the mistake-heavy Broncos, then of course they can win this one. It probably helps that John Fox is out and Jack Del Rio is the interim coach. Though that could actually benefit the Denver offense if Jack Del Riverboat returns and allows Manning to try some fourth-down attempts not done on Fox’s watch. This could be another very interesting shootout or a big Denver comeback.

I’m just happy to finally see a 2013 AFC West game that doesn’t involve Oakland.

2013 Midseason Awards

MVP – Peyton Manning (would be first NFL player to win MVP with two different teams)
Coach – Andy Reid
Offensive – Calvin Johnson
Defensive – Richard Sherman (someone notable from a top defense)
Comeback – Philip Rivers (for previously being lousy?)
OROY – Eddie Lacy
DROY – Kiko Alonso

Those picks of Jamaal Charles for MVP are a cute way of trying to be different and get some page hits, but let’s be honest. No way is the MVP a player on a sub-par unit for a team being carried by its defense against one of the easiest schedules since 1989.

There’s plenty of time left for most of these competitions to heat up, though I have to think Andy Reid has the coach award on lockdown, unless he suffers a second-half slide that could make Josh McDaniels blush.

2013 NFL Week 10 Predictions

Well I’m on a TNF losing streak now after Washington faded following a 27-14 lead.

Winners in bold:

Bengals at Ravens
Bills at Steelers
Lions at Bears
Raiders at Giants
Eagles at Packers
Rams at Colts
Seahawks at Falcons
Jaguars at Titans
Panthers at 49ers
Texans at Cardinals
Broncos at Chargers
Cowboys at Saints
Dolphins at Buccaneers

Season results:

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 6: 11-4
Week 7: 10-5
Week 8: 10-3
Week 9: 8-5
Season: 88-45

I don’t feel confident about picking the Eagles and Bengals, but that’s too many home teams if I didn’t.

I’m not picking the Buccaneers to win because Miami has no leadership and is distracted by douchebaggery, but I just think the two teams are pretty even and Tampa Bay’s been so close to getting a win. It’s time.

Also, the Jaguars are 1-20 in their last 21 games, but the one win was over Tennessee. Mike Munchak’s already lost to an 0-13 team (2011 Colts) in his career. Watch out…

But don’t ever be shocked anymore.

NFL Week 9 Predictions

November 2, 2013 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Last week was about as bad as expected when it came to the quality of games. At least the Cowboys and Lions delivered a regular-season classic for us. This week, I expect things to be a little better, but I’m not sure where the game of the week will come from.

Falcons at Panthers – Yes, Carolina’s won three straight and by a margin of 96-38, but slow the hype train down. It was only the Vikings, Rams and Buccaneers — three teams who will be fortunate to get another win in 2013. It wouldn’t shock me if the Falcons won this game, though I’m just about done with picking Atlanta to do anything this season. The defense is rotten and the losses on offense have been too much to overcome.

Chiefs at Bills – I felt good about putting the Chiefs on upset alert for this one, but with Jeff Tuel likely making his first start in place of Thad Lewis, it should be another typical Chiefs game: a close win over a lousy opponent/QB.

Saints at jets – The Ryan Bowl. It wouldn’t shock me if the Jets pull this one out, but I think the trend of alternating wins and losses comes to an end here. Reminder: the Jets lost last week, in case you forgot when Andy Dalton looked great. If that QB can throw five touchdowns against this defense, what can Drew Brees do?

Steelers at Patriots – Six of the last eight meetings have been decided by 13+ points. Personally, this is the first time I’ll watch this matchup and really not even care what the Steelers do. This used to be a huge AFC game with playoff implications. The last six times these teams have met, one of them went to the Super Bowl that season. That’s not likely to continue in 2013.

Colts at Texans – Check out my preview for this one here. It has GOTW potential, but frankly any outcome wouldn’t surprise me in a divisional game between teams coming off the bye. I’m not sure I watched the Colts play a live football game without Reggie Wayne since the 1995 AFC Championship in Pittsburgh.

2013 NFL Week 9 Predictions

Beaten by a safety in overtime. I knew picking Cincinnati was a risk, but I didn’t expect that type of finish. So that’s the first TNF mistake of the season.

Winners in bold:

Vikings at Cowboys
Falcons at Panthers
Chiefs at Bills
Chargers at Redskins
Saints at Jets
Titans at Rams
Buccaneers at Seahawks
Eagles at Raiders
Ravens at Browns
Steelers at Patriots
Colts at Texans
Bears at Packers

Season results:

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 6: 11-4
Week 7: 10-5
Week 8: 10-3
Season: 80-40

NFL Week 8 Predictions

October 26, 2013 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Notice anything odd about the NFL’s Week 8 schedule? If Thursday’s stinker was any indication, it’s going to be a poor week. It’s literally the worst slate of games I have seen since covering the league on a weekly basis in 2011, and that’s not hyperbole. On paper, does it get any better than Dallas at Detroit? I rest my case.

Some have said the NFL does not like to compete with the World Series, which is going on now in case you didn’t notice. Yet is anyone going to deny that even a terrible collection of NFL games will kick the World Series’ ass in ratings?

“Hell, we’ll put six teams on a bye week, send the Jaguars to London to face the 49ers, put the Rams out to slaughter against Seattle, and even start the week with Greg Schiano in prime time and people will still eat it up.”

The most riveting baseball series in years would still struggle to beat out a host of prime-time games featuring the dreadful 2013 Minnesota Vikings, and don’t worry, the latter is coming. After Josh Freeman’s 33-incompletion night, we get the Vikings again facing the Packers on Sunday. After a trip to Dallas in what is hopefully a low-traffic Heath Evans time slot on FOX, the Vikings return to the big stage with a Thursday night home game against the Redskins in Week 10. Three prime-time games in four weeks. Can’t wait.

Yet in the NFL, where inconsistency thrives, we probably will get a few unexpectedly great games this week. But for most of us, even the worst games are still preferable to watching baseball.

2013 NFL Week 8 Predictions

We’ll see what happens next week with a real challenge, but the undefeated run continues on TNF with a pick of Carolina.

Winners in bold:

Cowboys at Lions
Dolphins at Patriots
Browns at Chiefs
Bills at Saints
Giants at Eagles
49ers at Jaguars
Jets at Bengals
Steelers at Raiders
Redskins at Broncos
Falcons at Cardinals
Packers at Vikings
Seahawks at Rams

Season results:

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 6: 11-4
Week 7: 10-5
Season: 70-37

NFL Week 7 Predictions

October 19, 2013 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

As much as anyone thinks they have an understanding of the NFL, the game always produces some wild results few ever would have expected. That’s a big part of the league’s popularity.

When I look at Week 7, I see a few possibilities of “Any Given Sunday” taking place.

It would be so San Diego for the Chargers, after getting back to 3-3, to lose on the road to the worst team in football.

It would be so Jets/Patriots for Rob Gronkowski to make his long-awaited return and score a couple of touchdowns.

It would be so Ron Rivera to blow another fourth-quarter lead just when the Panthers have a schedule favorable enough to get to 4-3 by Thursday night.

It would be so Mike Munchak/bizarro Titans to stifle Colin Kaepernick, after the long travel from San Francisco, and get an upset win.

It would be so NFL if Case Keenum leads the Texans to an upset win over undefeated Kansas City, and with Alex Smith being the one who throws the pick six this week.

It would be so NFL if with everyone picking the Broncos to win, the game ends with an Adam Vinatieri field goal with 0:00 left as Andrew Luck leads his 10th game-winning drive to end Denver’s perfect season and Peyton Manning’s return.

On paper very little of this should make sense, but that’s why they play the games, and that’s why we watch no matter how awful the matchup looks.

I’ll be watching Ravens/Steelers in the late afternoon slot. While I would love to say the Steelers get the win to get back into things this year, I see a significant mismatch in the trenches. Having watched a lot of Baltimore this year, I just feel like Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil are going to eat Pittsburgh’s tackles alive and Le’Veon Bell will have few holes to run through. There are big passing plays to be had on both sides, but I expect Joe Flacco to have more time to get to them and for Pittsburgh’s secondary to make more mistakes in covering them. Still, a low-scoring game is likely.

I’ll enjoy the night game, Judgment Day, but I really only see two possible outcomes:

Peyton Manning dominates his former team (think 4-5 TD passes) and Von Miller has a nice return as the Broncos win easily (41-21).
The Colts sustain long drives (rank No. 2 in plays per drive) to limit Manning’s possessions and are able to pull the game out late as Luck gets the ball last (31-28 Colts win).

I’ll try to enjoy the game either way, because the next two doses of football include Vikings at Giants and Panthers at Buccaneers. And yet we watch…

2013 NFL Week 7 Predictions

Moved to 7-0 on TNF with a pick of Seattle. However, there are many more challenging games this week.

Winners in bold:

Bills at Dolphins
Chargers at Jaguars
Bears at Redskins
Bengals at Lions
Patriots at Jets
Rams at Panthers
Cowboys at Eagles
Buccaneers at Falcons
49ers at Titans
Browns at Packers
Ravens at Steelers
Texans at Chiefs
Broncos at Colts
Vikings at Giants

Season results:

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 6: 11-4
Season: 60-32

NFL Week 6 Predictions

October 12, 2013 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Your chaos ain’t me. – Orchid

Another interesting week in the books. So what am I looking forward to this week?

Pick 6 – If Matt Schaub throws a pick six for the fifth game in a row, his tenure in Houston may be over tomorrow unless the rest of the game is phenomenal. He has to play well against a poor defense at home.

QB Change – I don’t think Thad Lewis is much of a downgrade from EJ Manuel at QB for Buffalo. What I want to see is Cincinnati win a game they are “supposed to” win and not have another letdown after last week’s big New England victory.

Geno Brooks? – Geno Smith makes big plays, but he sometimes makes them for both teams like Aaron Brooks used to do for New Orleans. If Geno and the Jets can avoid turnovers again against Pittsburgh, the Steelers will set a new record by going 5 games without a takeaway to start a season. I already feel sick over my pick on this one.

Panthers at Vikings – Heavy hearts in Minnesota after the tragic news surrounding Adrian Peterson’s 2-year-old son. He’s expected to play and I think you’ll see the team rally around him with a big effort. Carolina was on the other end of one of those games last year against Kansas City when Jovan Belcher did his heinous act.

Point Spread – With the spread at 28 points for Jacksonville at Denver, this is the biggest spread since the 1970 merger. If I was a betting man, I wouldn’t touch this one. While very possible Denver pulls it off, that’s a monster margin for a NFL game, even if it’s Peyton Manning on his most dominant streak ever and the Jaguars looking like the worst team in 20 years. Garbage time alone makes you cautious about this one as I think Denver may call off the dogs earlier than usual. Yes, Denver’s scored as many points in each of its last two games as Jacksonville has all season, but isn’t 45-17 (no Blaine Gabbert!) reasonable for a final score? That still would only be a push.

This will be Peyton Manning’s 250th start. In the previous 249, he has 14 victories by 29+ points (5.6% of games; 8.3% of his wins).

Spread aside, Denver needs just 33 points to set the scoring record through six games of a season. That’s one bet that I’d gladly make on happening.

Manning needs two touchdown passes to set the new record for most through six games. That’s also a given.

Note: I compiled these tables myself through a series of searches on Pro-Football-Reference. If you want to cite them, do the right thing and use a reference.

2013 NFL Week 6 Predictions

If only all games were as easy as Thursday games. Picking the Bears, who picked Eli, makes me 6-0 on TNF.

Winners in bold:

Rams at Texans
Bengals at Bills
Raiders at Chiefs
Lions at Browns
Steelers at Jets
Eagles at Buccaneers
Panthers at Vikings
Packers at Ravens
Jaguars at Broncos
Titans at Seahawks
Cardinals at 49ers
Saints at Patriots
Redskins at Cowboys
Colts at Chargers

Season results:

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 9-5
Season: 49-28

NFL Week 5 Predictions and the Touchdown Pass Record

October 5, 2013October 5, 2013 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Short on ranting this week with some Saturday research to do, but let’s quickly look at the passing touchdown record. It seems to be the one in most jeopardy from the potential season-long juggernaut in Denver. Of course it would be Peyton Manning reclaiming the record from Tom Brady (50), which he would have already had if the Colts did not pull him after one series in Week 17 2004.

To earn a touchdown pass, you must have possession of the ball. So I took the drive stats for Manning ’04 (and four games into 2013) and Brady ’07 to see how many drives each had and how many they sat out. Kneel down drives are excluded from all stats.

(QB1 = Manning or Brady)

The numbers are eerily similar with Brady throwing one more touchdown on one more drive. Manning did sit out twice (16) as many drives as Brady (8) that season. It’s still very early, but he’s actually had 11 drives per game this year, which could give him a better shot at record volume. The 2007 Patriots were more efficient at scoring than the 2004 Colts, though you can see the Colts had more missed field goals and Manning’s skill players fumbled five times compared to none for Brady, who had 12 total turnovers (Manning with 11). The 2013 Broncos are scoring TDs at a better rate than the record-setting 2007 Patriots, but again, it is still very early.

The 2013 Broncos have already punted 7 times (BAL) and 5 times (Giants) in games, which did not happen to the 2004 Colts until they had 6 punts against the Ravens in Game 14. So it hasn’t been all perfect in Denver, though if Manning continues to get closer to 11 possessions per game, then you can see the potential this offense has. The best defense against Denver has often been itself. Cut down on some of the mistakes and some records will likely fall this season.

2013 NFL Week 5 Predictions

The Thursday streak continues at 5-0 with my pick of Cleveland. This week’s schedule looks very enticing.

Winners in bold:

Lions at Packers
Eagles at Giants
Chiefs at Titans
Ravens at Dolphins
Saints at Bears
Jaguars at Rams
Seahawks at Colts
Patriots at Bengals
Panthers at Cardinals
Broncos at Cowboys
Texans at 49ers
Chargers at Raiders
Jets at Falcons

Season results:

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 9-6
Season: 40-23

NFL Week 4 Predictions: I Don’t Care If Aaron Rodgers Is Clutch

September 28, 2013 ~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

This has been quite the week. Four years after first quantifying a quarterback’s record at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities, I finally saw that work transfer to the TV set this week on ESPN’s First Take with this graphic:

Little did I expect what would follow. In true First Take style, right after debating whether or not Peyton Manning was the greatest QB in the history of the NFL, the next segment was fully devoted to whether or not Aaron Rodgers was still the best QB in today’s NFL. You know, ahead of the guy they just said might be the GOAT.

The surreal event of watching Stephen A. Smith and Skip Bayless hold a printout copy of my Insider article on Rodgers so they could argue about it is something I never would have expected and never will forget.

The fruits of my labor made it like Christmas morning for Bayless, as he has argued his ridiculous “lack of clutch gene” narrative — ridiculous in that no gene exists for anyone — on Rodgers for years without doing the research to support it. He has something now, just as anyone should when I first wrote about the front-running Packers before the 2011 season started. This is nothing new to long-time readers, but it took a push by ESPN to finally get the numbers out there.

So if Green Bay’s historic struggles to win these games is a story going forward, then I have done my job.

The problem is when a large audience catches on to something completely new to them, there’s going to be a strong negative reaction too. That’s what I want to address here. You can consider this version 2.0 of “The Truth About the Front-Running Green Bay Packers”

First, allow me to expose a little secret: Monday’s article was a last-second backup plan after the events of Sunday’s early games made a piece I did on the AFC null and void. So after the dramatic game ended between Green Bay and Cincinnati, I pitched a topic I’m very familiar with and have plenty of research on already.

Now, let’s understand this is a business. You need some controversial headlines that will generate clicks. Any good business will tell you that, not just ESPN. People can twist headlines all they want, but if you read the article:

I never said Rodgers is not clutch. I don’t write about the “clutchiness” of QBs. I write about what happened in clutch situations. Clutch is a history, not a skill.

I never said the 5-24 record at comebacks or 9-26 record at game-winning drive opportunities is all Rodgers’ fault. In fact, my first mention of this goes right to head coach Mike McCarthy.

“These close-game failures have been the hush-hush hallmark of coach Mike McCarthy’s otherwise successful tenure as Packers head coach. While the blame should be distributed everywhere, why are we not looking at the quarterback more?”

Here are some other direct quotes from the article that do not put the blame all on Rodgers:

“It’s always the same story for Green Bay: win big or lose close”

“Sunday was a perfect opportunity, but it was the latest in a long line of failures for the league’s best front-running quarterback and team.”

“There is some historical data to show the crunch-time disconnect in Green Bay.”

I understand the article is behind a pay wall, so not everyone was able to read it (hint: try Google). But there are claims out there on things I never wrote in the piece.

I also did not write the line “Recurring fourth-quarter failures prevent him from being NFL’s top QB” under the title, however I agree with it 100 percent. I’m not going to put Rodgers ahead of Peyton and Tom Brady, who have the gaudy stats, records, MVP awards and Super Bowl rings too. They also have a larger body of work. But the main difference comes in that I can still trust those QBs when the game does not start as planned and they have to win it late. I don’t trust Rodgers in the same fashion, which is why I had little faith he would get the go-ahead drive on Sunday in Cincinnati.

I’ve written thousands upon thousands of words on this topic before, so anyone thinking this was a knee-jerk reaction to Sunday’s game just doesn’t know my work on the topic. By the way, I’m limited to around 1,500 words on Insider, so any thought to being able to fully explain away every loss in the 9-26 record is a pipe dream.

Stephen A. Smith said he didn’t see a list of the games where Rodgers led the Packers to a fourth-quarter lead, but the defense gave it back. HOWEVVVVA, it does state this in the article:

“Of course, some of the 26 losses speak well for him. He has put Green Bay ahead seven times in the fourth quarter when trailing, only for the team to go on to lose the game. The defense is certainly deserving of blame for this.”

I make sure I cover my bases. So that’s what I wanted to say about the Insider piece itself.

As for any fan criticism or written defenses that have come from other writers this week, now I will respond to those.

I’m not as nonchalant about things as Rodgers, who responded with “Yeah, I’m not worried about that at all” when ESPN’s Jason Wilde asked him point blank about the lack of success in these games. I probably need to get that way to survive in this business, but I probably like arguing with people too much to stop completely.

There were many comments, e-mails and articles this week in response to my work. I’m not going to link to any of the articles as I didn’t see any that attacked me personally. If I did, I would have responded accordingly. I’m just going to go over some of the general faults I found.

No one’s done the same study I have done. It’s hard to compare (straight up) any past study of close games if you’re not looking at things the way I do, which is 4th quarter/OT, tied or down by one score. What I do takes an eternity for one person to compile, so I don’t think anyone could have accomplished that the last few days.

Stats in the final 5:00 – Sure, we can look at these, but that leaves out a lot of what goes into the 5-24/9-26 records. It’s not just about what you do when you’re behind, but it’s how you protect that lead or how you avoid getting into these situations late in the first place.

Win-loss record at 4QC/GWD should not be thrown away like trash – You can read my rant on this from FO here. We can take these stats and just look at how good a guy is at scoring a TD when he’s down 4-8 points in the 4Q, or scoring a FG when he’s tied or down 1-3. We can break them up that way and maybe get something useful out of that. The only reason I haven’t done it is because I’m still trying to put together a full database for every single opportunity in the last 30+ years. That takes time.

However, the record, the wins and losses (and sometimes ties), is the starting point for knowing which games to look at. We can’t just ignore it. While we can break the games down and see why the team won or lost, we need to be taking 4QC/GWD, which are situational drive stats at the heart of it all, and not just focus on the scoring drive(s).

Rodgers probably could have avoided last Sunday’s 4QC opportunity if he didn’t throw a bad INT early in the quarter in scoring territory. And people talk about the Johnathan Franklin fumble on 4th-and-1 losing the game, but I can tell you any advanced stat (DVOA, QBR, WPA, EPA) will give Rodgers two negatives for the sack on 2nd-and-6 and the 11-yard pass on 3rd-and-12 that set up that 4th-and-1 in the first place. He’s still accountable in that loss for things that took place before he was even trailing in the 4Q.

With a stat like TD passes, we don’t care about what happened on the drive before and after. It is what it is. These 4QC/GWD stats are different because what happens before and after them will usually decide if they stand up or not. Just taking a 1-point lead with 14:50 left to play does not put you in good position for a GWD. You will likely need to do something the rest of the game too.

Even before I became the guy who corrected 4QC stats for people like Elway and Marino, I was tracking successes and failures for active QBs for years. Eventually I started combining the two files to develop records for how successful QBs/teams are at such games. It was only natural for me to start quantifying things like one-minute drills, two-minute offense and the four-minute offense. I want to develop a new win probability model this offseason so I can use things like WPA and Expected Points Added (EPA) for QBs in these situations. I want to quantify late-game performance and strategy as well as anyone ever has, but it’s a process and you’ll just have to bear with me.

I don’t think the W-L record, especially for a QB, is the best way to judge these things, but I know it’s not meaningless either, especially for those who sit at the extreme ends of the chart. There’s something there that’s worth exploring and talking about.

Final-score analysis is heavily flawed to study the closeness of games. Because it takes too long to do this, most close-game studies have always been about the final score. Those can be very misleading. The Colts/49ers from last Sunday played a game that was a tie or one-score difference for 93% of the game before the Colts pulled away 27-7. A final-score study would reject that as a close game, but it would accept trash like MNF Eagles/Redskins from Week 1 when Washington made it 33-27 late and failed to recover the onside kick. That game was not close and the only drive involving a one-score game in the 4Q that night was Michael Vick taking two knees. Forget about the final score.

Rodgers is 20-22 (.476) in games decided by one score, and I hope it’s assumed when I say Rodgers I mean “the Packers with Rodgers at QB”. Because the record with Matt Flynn or Brett Favre (under McCarthy) would be different.

Anyways, 20-22 is a hell of a difference from 9-26 (.257) at GWDs, so you can see it’s two completely different studies. That’s the one thing I would like to change in how I’ve been writing about this. It’s not so much a close-game issue for Green Bay as it is a failure to win games when they have to score the winning points in the 4Q/OT. Behind Rodgers they’re 9-26 at doing that, but 49-5 in all other games. No one has been able to explain that absurd gap in winning percentage, which is the largest in NFL history.

There is no simple explanation as teams lose games for various reasons. Sometimes it’s the QB, sometimes it’s the defense and once in a while it’s a kicker. You can count how many times Mason Crosby missed a clutch kick (four games and three were long attempts) that led to a loss, but what about Tony Romo (5) or Tom Brady (once)? You can’t just adjust Rodgers’ record for these things, because they happen to all other QBs too. If you want the article that will show that, stay tuned to Football Outsiders this season.

No matter who you want to blame, the Packers are 9-26 at GWDs with Rodgers at QB and that is a terrible record, especially for such a good team. Rodgers is the headline, but the Packers’ problems are the real story, and too many people are glossing over that aspect of this.

As for criticism of my “Phil Simms analysis” that 4QC show the cream rising to the top, well you find fault with the 10 guys who have held the record for most 4QC wins since 1950: Sammy Baugh, Sid Luckman, Bob Waterfield, Bobby Layne, Otto Graham, Y.A. Tittle, Johnny Unitas, John Elway, Dan Marino and Peyton Manning. That’s a who’s who of the best QBs through the years with Joe Montana (5th all time) only excluded because he missed too many games in his career. The 1970s are not represented, but wouldn’t you know Terry Bradshaw, Roger Staubach and Ken Stabler all lead the decade with 15 4QC wins. Throughout NFL history, the best QBs dominate this stat as much as any other stat you can pick. But for Aaron Rodgers, he’s still somehow behind John Skelton and Tim Tebow. If that doesn’t make you scratch your head, nothing will.

Enough with the “lack of opportunity” argument – I hammered on this before, but again some people think Rodgers has a lack of 4QC/GWD for a lack of opportunity. 29-35 games is plenty of opportunity. It’s not the opportunity, it’s the bad winning percentage. Here’s an updated list with a few more notable QBs and how many 4QC opportunities they have had by start.

Rodgers is just above average at 32.6%, so stop it.

Statistical significance vs. real significance – I want to tread lightly on this topic as this alone could be 5,000 words out of me. I fully understand the small sample size issues with covering football. I’ve done hundreds of articles and looked at many things over the years, so I know as well as anyone when we don’t have enough data to make good conclusions. How many comeback opportunities does Rodgers need before we can statistically conclude his record is bad? 30? 50? 100? I don’t know, but I will work to find out in the offseason.

In the meantime, I’m going to keep doing my job as a football analyst to present the patterns and trends that aid our coverage of the game. They may or may not have statistical significance, but once you start talking about 29-35 games, that seems rather foolish to brush everything off as being random.

We can all agree the final minutes of a close NFL game are different from the rest of the game, right? The rule book changes in regards to clock stoppages and things like advancing the ball after a fumble. Time actually becomes a factor with using timeouts and managing the clock. No one cares about the game clock unless it’s the end of a half. Offenses will use all four downs while playing three-down football most of the time otherwise. There’s that sense of “if this drive is not successful, we will lose the game” that just does not come early in the game. It’s a different experience in crunch time.

So how many times does a team need to experience this before they learn how to adapt to the situation? Think of your own real-life experiences in adverse situations: driving up an icy hill on your way home from work, flying on an airplane or going to a funeral parlor. Yeah, I’m going to go with the darkest analogy I could think of.

Do you have to go see 80 dead people before it becomes statistically significant in how you will handle the situation? Or does it take a few trips before we know what to expect and act accordingly? That could be anything from the smell of the place, the demeanor of mourners, dealing with the image of the person in the casket, proper dress attire, etc. Sometimes we may get thrown a curve ball like a person laughing hysterically or someone throwing themselves onto the casket. In football, some unexpected things can come up too like a seven-man blitz or a dropped pass.

In other sports we have seen teams like Michael Jordan’s Bulls or Sidney Crosby’s Penguins have to climb the ladder of success before winning a championship. That means getting your feet wet in the playoffs, learning how to adjust for a best-of-7 series and going further each time before eventually completing the journey to the top.

Why can’t it be the same in the NFL where you have to learn to adjust to adverse situations? It shouldn’t take years upon years to do that either. I think we’ve seen enough from the Packers to reasonably conclude they struggle a lot in these types of games.

If you honestly see zero significance and only randomness to the Packers being 5-24 at 4QC behind Rodgers — possibly 0-20 against winning teams — then maybe following the NFL is not right for you. That record is unlike anyone else’s record when we’re talking about an annual SB contending team. Now if you want me to break the records down to adjust for opponent, or dig deeper into the causes, then that’s fine. I’ve done such things in the past. I know the few wins the Packers do have have often been unimpressive (bad opponents, small deficits). There are patterns. I’ve done enough to know something is not right with how the Packers win and lose football games.

Not to harp on it, but the comments made this offseason by Greg Jennings and Donald Driver about Rodgers’ leadership is another layer to this story. Cue the smoke/fire line. We don’t see receivers for QBs like Peyton, Brady and Matt Ryan question their leadership. We also see those QBs with great success in these close games. Maybe there’s something there, but let’s stick to numbers.

I have seen all 26 losses by GB. They happened and it didn’t take a stroke of bad luck every time. This team has issues late whether it’s the QB’s unwillingness to throw interceptions so he takes drive-killing sacks, the lack of a running game, the struggling OL, McCarthy’s playcalling, Dom Capers’ defense or Mr. Crosby’s kicking. There are baselines already established. For an elite QB, a 9-26 record at GWDs is bad and no one will convince me to say otherwise. Should it improve, then credit to the Packers.

But as long as it stays where it is, we have a problem here, and remember it’s a problem that has already and will continue to cost the Packers wins, division titles, higher playoff seeds, playoff wins and Super Bowl rings.

2013 NFL Week 4 Predictions

After hesitantly picking the 49ers, that makes me 4-0 on the Thursday games this season. My record’s much better than the quality of those games. I’m still stinging from another difficult Week 3 that saw an 8-8 record. Onward and upward this week as we try to figure these teams out.

Winners in bold:

Giants at Chiefs
Cardinals at Buccaneers
Steelers at Vikings
Ravens at Bills
Bears at Lions
Bengals at Browns
Colts at Jaguars
Seahawks at Texans
Jets at Titans
Eagles at Broncos
Cowboys at Chargers
Redskins at Raiders
Patriots at Falcons
Dolphins at Saints

Season results:

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 8-8
Season: 31-17

Good god I have 10/14 road teams winning this week. Even if we don’t count Pittsburgh (neutral site), that sounds like trouble. Upset watch for Seattle, Cincy, Baltimore and Chicago?

Also, back in April I had Pittsburgh beating Minnesota in London with the premonition of Adrian Peterson being contained, Christian Ponder coughing over some turnovers, Big Ben finding Sanders/Brown deep down the sideline for scores. Just a good day for the Steelers in London. Now with both teams at 0-3, I barely feel like watching this one. Though with Matt Cassel stepping in at QB, I can’t imagine the takeaway-less Steelers do not get a few this week. And I still expect the Steelers to win, dropping a Minnesota team I railed on more than any other team this offseason to 0-4.

With Carolina and Green Bay on the bye week, there’s no chance to blow a late lead this week. But if there’s anyone I don’t want to see need a fourth-quarter comeback in Week 4, it will be Breaking Bad. I’ve noticed a lot of big-time series finales in recent years (Dexter and Big Love especially) waited too long to get things going and tried to rush it for a botched ending. I’m counting on big things from AMC here.

If Walter White escapes the country to become a lumberjack, I’m going to lose my sanity and quit watching these series since we never get closure or final satisfaction anymore.