NFL Week 5 Predictions and Writing Recap

The St. Louis Rams are over .500 for the first time in 71 months. I was 4-0 at picking the Rams’ games this year, and did like them on Thursday, but not enough to pull the trigger. Now the home team is 28-13 (.683) on Thursday Night Football since 2006.

This Week’s Articles

Captain Comeback Week 4: Matt Ryan’s MVP Effort Tops Big NFC Week – Cold, Hard Football Facts

The Falcons became the only team since 1981 to start a drive inside their own 10-yard line in the last 60 seconds and have a game-winning drive. That’s how exclusive this comeback was, which dropped Cam Newton to 1-10 in career comeback opportunities; the worst record in the league. Also: big NFC wins for Green Bay, Arizona, Washington, and Philadelphia.

Quarter-Season Review: Peyton Manning’s Transition with Denver Broncos – Bleacher Report

The Broncos may be a work-in-progress, but Peyton Manning is up to his old tricks. A review of Denver’s first four games, and it appears Manning picked up right where he left off in 2010.

The Thinking Man’s Guide to NFL Week 5 – Bleacher Report

Previewing Manning vs. Brady, the Keystone State battle, Rams’ opportunity to go over .500, and the Houston Texans are the 4th team to ever have a 20-point lead in their first four games of the season. A good chance for that one to continue when they play the Jets this week.

When Brees Passes Unitas, It’ll Be the Second Time – NBC Sports

Drew Brees is trying to break Johnny Unitas’ consecutive games with a TD pass record, but he already has Unitas beat 53-to-49 when you count the playoffs. Find out why other quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, Joe Montana and Steve Young never broke this record.

NFL Offenses Facing 5-Year Downward Spiral on Third Down – Cold, Hard Football Facts

If current trends continue, this will be the 5th straight season league-wide conversion rates on third down decrease for the offense. A look at 3rd-down data from 1991-2012.

2012 NFL Week 5 Predictions

It might take a long time for the Browns to get their first win this season, but I think the Saints get their’s this week. Falcons and Texans should remain undefeated.

Winners in bold:

  • Dolphins at Bengals
  • Packers at Colts
  • Ravens at Chiefs
  • Browns at Giants
  • Eagles at Steelers
  • Falcons at Redskins
  • Seahawks at Panthers
  • Bears at Jaguars
  • Titans at Vikings
  • Broncos at Patriots
  • Bills at 49ers
  • Chargers at Saints
  • Texans at Jets

Season results:

  • Week 1: 12-4
  • Week 2: 11-5
  • Week 3: 4-12
  • Week 4: 10-5
  • Season: 37-26

Next week I will be back with the Andrew Luck “Following a Legend” series, and if things go well for him this weekend, perhaps a different article on another site about his season.

NFL Week 4 Predictions and More Golden Tate Hail Mary Response

Well this has been the most interesting week yet in the brief time I have covered the NFL. It started with a Sunday full of crazy games, which resulted in a nice stat of the week I jumped on first after the New England loss.

Then Monday night came, bringing in the biggest overreaction to a correct call in NFL history. But this wasn’t about injustice as much as it was scorn for the replacement referees, and the only positive is it did end the lockout.

But the controversial Golden Tate Hail Mary touchdown is a classic example of groupthink and media manipulation. How one views this play really separates the sheep from people willing to think for themselves and not be influenced by Jon Gruden’s second-half disgust, which is an entertaining thought because he still looks like a Chucky doll.

At the very least, any objective person should see this was too close of a call to make in real time for anyone, and that there’s no way you could have clearly called it an interception. It  is completely understandable why they ruled what they did, and upon further analysis, it was the right call just as the NFL and that replacement referee have said.

So in writing the article, I tried to put as much as I could into it. That’s why I write long articles, as I try to cover all bases and leave little for anyone to nitpick over. But I will reply to a few of the same things I’m seeing in response to it on Twitter or in your e-mails. And no, I won’t use anyone’s name.  Reaction has been 50/50, even though it seems like reaction to the call has been 90/10.

Well Allow Me To Retort

Worthless Picture – First, it is always easy to see which people actually read the article and which respond after reading only the headline. Anyone still trying to use this picture as proof of anything needs to get a clue.

This is several seconds after both players have landed on the ground. The catch was already over as all aspects of a catch have been satisfied (control and possession through the process of going to the ground). Just because the refs came in late doesn’t mean anything. This wasn’t a fumble and two players battling on the ground for the ball, in which refs will often let them fight it out. This was a (TD) catch.

Back judge – He never signaled touchback like some have said. That has a distinct motion — like a vertical spanking/tap that ass motion — which he never used. What the back judge even ruled was never going to be more reliable than the ref on the spot, because look how far away the back judge is at the moment both players have hit the ground:

He is barely past the goal post at this point. How could he possibly been able to tell who controlled the ball first? From the point of contact with the ball to this picture where the second foot hits for Jennings, a total of 0.7 seconds passed. Over three additional seconds pass before the back judge runs in to take a look at the players on the ground, which makes for a call from him that was never going to be conclusive or even confident.

Semantics – Lots of semantics mess again this week with control, possession and catch. I have seen people say simultaneous possession, even though the only thing in the rule book is “simultaneous catch.” I have heard comments from a ex-NFL referee talking about possession in the air, even though the NFL clearly said in their statement possession cannot happen in the air. A player must get two feet or an equivalent like a knee down to legally gain possession.

It is also indisputable that Tate gains possession first, but the most important part of the play comes at the very beginning.

Physics of the play – First let’s talk about control, since that is the common complaint.

You can control a ball with one hand. That was the point of the one-handed examples I used to refute the article from ProFootballTalk or Hochuli’s mumbo-jumbo about four arms. You do not need two hands/arms, and this Randy Moss TD is another nice example pointed out by @DeeepThreat. You can move your hand/arm off the ball (see Reggie Wayne) if you want, but as long as you have sustained control with one hand, it counts.

As for Tate, I have yet to see anyone explain this. First, let’s recall the fact Tate was in front of Jennings and should have been the first to contact the ball. I proved the ball made first contact with his left hand. Do not even try and say it hit Jennings’ right hand first, as that is just depth perception. If you watch the video in conjunction with making the frames, the ball hits Tate first, and it did much more than just touch him.

Why does the ball get stuck in the air at this point if Tate didn’t have control, or only had his fingertips on the ball? Go outside and have someone throw you a football and try to hold it up in the air without any real control or grip. It won’t happen. The ball will deflect off your hand. Any non-sticky object would if you don’t actually initiate some type of grip on it.  Jennings only closed his hands around it after Tate stopped it in the air first for the play to even develop into a catch.

How else are you going to stop a football traveling roughly 45 yards in the air in 2.85 seconds if you didn’t initiate a good grip to control it?

This isn’t to say that you can’t grip an object with just your fingers. Having a big, strong hand would definitely help make it more possible.

Tate has a very interesting Twitter background pic  that shows him hauling in a ball with his left hand on a more difficult looking play in practice. These guys get drafted high for a reason. They are great athletes capable of making tough catches.

Notice that Jennings does a horizontal close on the ball with his hands. It does not move backwards or fall forwards after Tate’s initial grab. That supports his grip of the ball. It’s not like Jennings had to keep the ball up from being deflected away incomplete. Tate controlled it. Watch most catches in football. The receiver’s initial contact with the ball is when he gets the grip on it, and it is possible to do so with one hand.

Less than a tenth of a second passes between Tate’s contact and Jennings’ close on the ball. If you are trying to judge this in real time, how could that not look simultaneous? Makes perfect sense why referee Lance Easley made the call he did.

Consider the initial contact Point A, and we know from the end of the play when Jennings struggles to wrestle the ball away from Tate that Tate has that grip with his left hand still on the ball (Point B). So where between Point A and Point B does Tate ever lose the ball from his left hand? No one has any evidence that he loses control. That is why this is a TD, because he maintained that control from the start of the play through the process of going to the ground.

Other criticisms – Some people talk about the ball being in Jennings’ chest. For starters, there is no rule that says you have to have the ball in your chest, so just ignore Steve Young’s revisionist, agenda-pushing history. More importantly, everyone who thinks this is ignoring the fact that Tate’s hand was in the way of his chest throughout the play. Pretty hard to pull something to your chest if a guy has his hand lodged in there the whole time.

The NFL would have admitted they blew the TD call and it should have been an interception if that was actually the case. They did admit the OPI, which also would have ended the game. People don’t think the NFL admits such game-changing errors, but the fact is they do. What they don’t do is change the final outcome because of one.

Listening to some people, you’d think Jennings caught it first and Tate just fingered the ball on the way down. Some of the reaction has just been embarrassing. Not sure how long this play will be in focus, but expect to hear about it more should the season continue going sour for Green Bay. But hopefully by that point people would just realize this game didn’t decide their season, and it was their disappointing play starting in Week 1 that was the real culprit.

Not a right call that Mike Tirico initially made himself in the heat of the moment, only to bash for the last 12 minutes of the broadcast.

Take emotion out of it, and you will understand why Seattle got the touchdown.

This Week’s Articles

Captain Comeback Week 3: What the Hell’s Going on Out There? – Cold, Hard Football Facts

After 12 games with a fourth quarter comeback opportunity, this was a jammed-packed edition of Captain Comeback. It has only received about 4,900 fewer Facebook likes than you know which article.

Crazy Season Even Affecting NFL’s Best Quarterbacks – NBC Sports

For the first time in 58 opportunities, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger all lost on Sunday. If that’s not enough, Week 2 (1-3) was their first losing week. It’s just a reflection of what’s been a crazy season so far.

New Orleans Saints’ Disastrous 0-3 Start Goes Well Beyond Sean Payton’s Absence – Bleacher Report

The Saints are 0-3, but before we give Sean Payton coach of the year in his absence, let’s call a spade a spade. Drew Brees is playing like an average quarterback at best, and the defense might be the worst in the league.

Following a Legend: Andrew Luck Week 3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – Colts Authority

Luck came very close to his first 4QC, but a shocking 80-yard TD put that out of reach. Check the analysis of every drop back.

The Thinking Man’s Guide to NFL Week 4 – Bleacher Report

Included: the greatest 0-3 at 1-2 game ever, San Francisco’s Jet lag, must-win weekend for the century’s best quarterbacks, and no-huddle nuggets.

Shame on the Angry Mob: Golden Tate’s Touchdown Was Legit – Cold, Hard Football Facts

I just call it like I see it.

2012 NFL Week 4 Predictions

After an all-time worst 4-12 record in Week 3, it’s time for some redemption. Baltimore has started me off 1-0, but that was closer than it should have been.

Winners in bold:

  • Panthers at Falcons
  • Patriots at Bills
  • Vikings at Lions
  • Titans at Texans
  • Chargers at Chiefs
  • 49ers at Jets
  • Seahawks at Rams
  • Dolphins at Cardinals
  • Raiders at Broncos
  • Bengals at Jaguars
  • Saints at Packers
  • Redskins at Buccaneers
  • Giants at Eagles
  • Bears at Cowboys

Season results:

  • Week 1: 12-4
  • Week 2: 11-5
  • Week 3: 4-12
  • Season: 27-21

You can keep e-mailing me if you want, but I am less likely to reply and really would like to move on from Monday night starting with Week 4 Sunday action. Believe it or not the season has continued. More bad calls will be made. A lot more bad plays that lead to losses will also happen. That’s football.

NFL Week 3 Predictions and Writing Recap

After being fooled by the Thursday night home-field advantage, I’m now 0-3 at picking games with the Carolina Panthers this season. That’s what I get for trusting a team that has not yet arrived with a quarterback I pegged as the most overrated in the league heading into the season. Won’t make that mistake next week, but let’s worry about this weekend first.

This Week’s Articles

Breaking Down the Pivotal Moments of NFL Week 2 – Bleacher Report

A loaded recap of the Giants’ big comeback, the comedy of errors in Arizona/New England, C.J. Spiller’s big average, Rex Ryan’s foot fetish, and whether or not the 2012 Philadelphia Eagles are the worst 2-0 team in NFL history.

Captain Comeback Week 2: No. 1 QB’s to the Rescue – Cold, Hard Football Facts

We only had six games with a fourth quarter comeback opportunity this week, but still some great finishes. Eli Manning did it again for New York, the Eagles came through the second week in a row, Andrew Luck’s first game-winning drive, and a rare St. Louis comeback win. Also the Patriots missed a clutch field goal and lost because of it for the first time since December 26, 1999. Is Stephen Gostkowski a huge choker compared to Adam Vinatieri? All the details included.

Can’t Laugh at NFC West Now – NBC Sports

After just their second ever Sunday of going 4-0 as a division, the NFC West looks much improved this season. Find out how they’ve done and it whether or not the four teams can sustain success this season.

Following a Legend: Andrew Luck Week 2 vs. Minnesota Vikings – Colts Authority

Andrew Luck had a much better performance this week, leading his first game-winning drive in the Colts’ 23-20 victory over Minnesota. Found out what was different for Luck this week versus last with a full breakdown of every drop back.

The Thinking Man’s Guide to NFL Week 3 – Bleacher Report

Previewing Giants/Panthers, Texans/Broncos, Patriots/Ravens, Steelers/Raiders and Packers/Seahawks.

Those 2-0 Teams Couldn’t Be More Different – NBC Sports

The Cardinals are tied for a league-best 9-2 record in their last 11 games, while the Eagles have the longest active winning streak (6). Yet, why does this 2-0 battle look so weak on paper? Find out how fortunate the 2-0 starts have been for each team, plus a statistical analysis that shows it does matter how you play on your way to a 2-0 start. I really enjoyed writing this one, as some of the data provided unexpected results.

Thursday Night Lights: Giants Blast Panthers in Historic Rout – Cold, Hard Football Facts

The Giants’ 36-7 win in Carolina on Thursday night is the 6th highest by a road team in any Thursday game since the 1970 merger. Find out if the Thursday home advantage is real or has just been a matter of favorable scheduling on the NFL Network.

2012 NFL Week 3 Predictions

Need to trust my gut more. The Week 1 team I was all in for except making the pick was Tampa Bay, and last week was Seattle, as I explained in this exact spot. This week I am going to make that team San Diego, as I think they will beat Atlanta at home and finally earn some respect this season as a contender in the AFC.

Winners in bold:

  • Rams at Bears
  • Bills at Browns
  • Buccaneers at Cowboys
  • Jaguars at Colts
  • Jets at Dolphins
  • 49ers at Vikings
  • Chiefs at Saints
  • Lions at Titans
  • Bengals at Redskins
  • Eagles at Cardinals
  • Falcons at Chargers
  • Texans at Broncos
  • Steelers at Raiders
  • Patriots at Ravens
  • Packers at Seahawks

Season results:

  • Week 1: 12-4
  • Week 2: 11-5

NFL Week 2 Predictions and Writing Recap

Pretty good start to the NFL season. On Thursday I was introduced on Wisconsin radio as someone “who really hates the Packers.” Not true, but good times.

This Week’s Articles

Peyton Manning Ties Dan Marino for Fourth Quarter Comeback Record – Cold, Hard Football Facts

Started the week off in historic fashion with Manning finally tying Dan Marino with his 36th fourth quarter coemback win.

Breaking Down the Pivotal Moments of NFL Week 1 – Bleacher Report

New column to review the weekend’s most interesting action. Putting things into context.

Captain Comeback Week 1: Broncos Skewer Dick LeBeau’s Defense Again – Cold, Hard Football Facts

This season’s first real edition of Captain Comeback where I review this week’s close games. Included: Manning’s record, ugly wins for Stafford/Vick, a historic finish in Minnesota, and those front-running Green Bay Packers.

NFL Week 1 Scoring Record Belies Offensive Issues – NBC Sports

While there may have been a Week 1 record of 791 points scored, there was still plenty of bad offense and ugly special teams play in these games. Quite a few quarterbacks threw pick parades, and the return of defense looks well intact. See Thursday night in Green Bay for more proof this year is going to be different.

Following a Legend: Andrew Luck Week 1 at Chicago Bears – Colts Authority

This is an article I had planned to do months before Luck was even drafted by the Colts. Every Wednesday I am going to have the breakdown of his game in ways that I don’t think anyone has ever done before, or at least not all in one place and free to the public. Metrics for how long Luck held the ball, incomplete pass splits, YAC stats, number of pass rushers faced, use of play-action passing, etc.

The Thinking Man’s Guide to NFL Week 2 – Bleacher Report

This week’s preview includes a look at domination by home teams on Thursday night, what 0-2 really means for your playoff chances, an update on the five rookie quarterbacks, and statement games in prime time for Detroit and Atlanta.

Carson Palmer Leads NFL in Failed Completions – Cold, Hard Football Facts

Who was this week’s Captain Checkdown? Carson Palmer of course. He had 13 failed completions. Learn about this statistical concept of measuring passing success for all 32 teams.

2012 NFL Week 2 Predictions

Last week I had a great start with a 12-4 record. I should have picked Tampa Bay too, but their December blowout losses to Carolina scared me away. Off to a 1-0 start this week after rolling with the Packers. Thanks, Jay.

Winners in bold:

  • Chiefs at Bills
  • Saints at Panthers
  • Browns at Bengals
  • Vikings at Colts
  • Texans at Jaguars
  • Raiders at Dolphins
  • Cardinals at Patriots
  • Buccaneers at Giants
  • Ravens at Eagles
  • Cowboys at Seahawks
  • Redskins at Rams
  • Jets at Steelers
  • Titans at Chargers
  • Lions at 49ers
  • Broncos at Falcons

I am very tempted to take Seattle, but I just can’t do it yet. Want to see Russell Wilson with a capable NFL performance first. I think Andrew Luck gets his first win after playing Minnesota’s bad defense at home this week. The Patriots are as much as a lock as you can get this week. The Lions have lost 8 straight to San Francisco, and they have no wins against a winning team under Schwartz/Stafford (0-12). Finally, I rarely ever pick against Peyton Manning, but I just have a feeling this is Atlanta’s big moment in the dome on Monday night. It is very important for their development to win a game like this. I can see a 31-28 finish after playing more keepaway from Peyton. That Denver defense is not Super Bowl-caliber yet.

NFL Week 1 Predictions and Writing Recap

Near the end of each week I will be posting my NFL game picks and summarizing the week’s articles. It’s simply a way to show a track record of how I wind up just picking the winners in the 60-65% range.

This Week’s Articles

San Francisco 49ers Destined For Big Fall – Cold, Hard Football Facts

Review the unique factors that led to a 13-3 season and near Super Bowl appearance for Jim Harbaugh’s team, and why they will unlikely repeat themselves in 2012.

Andrew Luck: What Have We Learned About Colts’ QB Entering the 2012 Season? – Bleacher Report

My review of what I saw from Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck. Hint: it was very impressive.

Career Records in the Clutch for Active QBs – Cold, Hard Football Facts

You’ve been asking for 37 months, and finally I deliver a table of 41 active quarterbacks with their career records in 4th quarter and OT comeback/game-winning drive opportunities.

NFL offenses won’t feature same fireworks as 2011 – NBC Sports

Believe in 6,000-yard passers? Not so fast. Read about the unique factors that went into making 2011 such an explosive passing season, and why defenses should be a bit more resistant in 2012.

The Thinking Man’s Guide to NFL Week 1 – Bleacher Report

This is a new column I will be doing every Thursday where I preview the upcoming week’s most interesting stats, records, facts, and provide the in-depth analysis & context behind the numbers. Any topic is on the table, and this week was a look at some major QB records that could be broken on Sunday, the expectations for Luck’s debut, New England’s opening-day winning streak, and whether or not the Cincinnati Bengals can step up against the better competition in 2012.

Is Peyton the Greatest Comeback QB Ever? – NBC Sports

Taking the comeback crusade big time on NBC Sports. Peyton Manning’s next comeback could be extra historic as a 4th quarter comeback over Pittsburgh would tie him with Dan Marino for the all-time record.

Captain Comeback: Tony Romo And The NFL’s Four-Minute Offense – Cold, Hard Football Facts

Ever wonder about the NFL’s four-minute offense? I break down the 2011 season to see the results, and they are full of rushes, and offenses relying on their defense and clock to win the game. That’s why Tony Romo’s game-ending dagger on third down to put away the Giants on Wednesday night was so rare and crucial.

2012 NFL Week 1 Predictions

I start off 0-1 after going with the Giants, but at least my prediction of Dallas winning the Super Bowl is off to a good start.

Winners in bold:

  • Colts at Bears
  • Eagles at Browns
  • Rams at Lions
  • Dolphins at Texans
  • Falcons at Chiefs
  • Jaguars at Vikings
  • Redskins at Saints
  • Bills at Jets
  • Patriots at Titans
  • Seahawks at Cardinals
  • 49ers at Packers
  • Panthers at Buccaneers
  • Steelers at Broncos
  • Bengals at Ravens
  • Chargers at Raiders

I will bust out a Christopher Walken-like dance from King of New York if Al Michaels drops the line “You know Cris, John Elway never actually had 47 fourth quarter comebacks in his career” on Sunday night.