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NFL History: MVP Quarterbacks Playing with MVP Running Backs

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Christian Ponder would be one of the least likely NFL MVP winners in 2013, but if the game had gone to hell and he won a year after running back Adrian Peterson was named MVP, then they would join Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk as the only QB/RB duo to win consecutive MVPs. Warner won in 1999 and 2001 with Faulk taking it in 2000.

Here is a list of every instance of a MVP quarterback playing with a MVP running back. This is based on the AP’s MVP award, which was first given in 1957.

  • Bart Starr (1966) and Paul Hornung (1961) played together in 1957-66 in Green Bay.
  • Bart Starr (1966) and Jim Taylor (1962) played together in 1958-66 in Green Bay.
  • Joe Montana (1989-90) and O.J. Simpson (1973) played together in 1979 in San Francisco, though this is a cheap example.
  • Ken Stabler (1974) and Earl Campbell (1979) played together in 1980-81 in Houston.
  • Joe Montana (1989-90) and Marcus Allen (1985) played together in 1993-94 in Kansas City.
  • John Elway (1987) and Terrell Davis (1998) played together in 1995-98 in Denver.
  • Peyton Manning (2003-04, 2008-09) and Marshall Faulk (2000) played together in 1998 in Indianapolis before either won a MVP.
  • Kurt Warner (1999, 2001) and Marshall Faulk (2000) played together in 1999-03 in St. Louis.
  • Brett Favre (1995-97) and Adrian Peterson (2012) played together in 2009-10 in Minnesota.

So only Stabler/Campbell, Montana/Allen and Warner/Faulk played together in a season after each had won a MVP in the past.

That means just seven seasons in NFL history have had active MVP winners at QB and RB.

NFL History: Defending Super Bowl Champion vs. Regular Season Champion

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Going off an article from last week on the NFL’s Final Four history, I was thinking about how the NHL’s Chicago Blackhawks are this year’s regular season champion and they currently hold a 2-0 lead against the Los Angeles Kings, who are the defending Stanley Cup champions.

How many of these meetings between defending champion and regular season champion have taken place in the NFL?

My data on NFL regular season champions goes back to 1975 when the seeding system was put in place. Here are those meetings (winner in green):

DSRS

Nothing says “last year was last year” like this table.

The regular season champion is 18-3 (.857) against the defending Super Bowl champion, including 12 straight wins from 1976-94. In the playoffs, the regular season champion is 4-2.

The only three losses involve the ‘90s NFC cycle when Steve Young’s 49ers couldn’t beat Brett Favre’s Packers, who couldn’t beat Troy Aikman’s Cowboys. Also the Patriots took their poor loss on Halloween into Pittsburgh and turned it into a 41-27 win in the 2004 AFC Championship.

18-3, that’s pretty damn good.

Donovan McNabb Retires an Eagle

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Quarterback Donovan McNabb officially retired as a Philadelphia Eagle last week.

Is he ever going to be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame? After that finish to his career in Washington and Minnesota, the answer is no. You can read my extended information on his HOF case here.

Honestly, I just wanted to post this ridiculous GIF somewhere. So from the last meaningful game of McNabb’s career, a 34-14 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in the 2009 playoffs, this is what McNabb did:

McNabb Dance

Is that a “cornball brother” move?

Apparently McNabb has blocked out the memory of that evening. He currently serves as a NFL Network analyst.

mcnabb 

The Office Finale: Saying Goodbye…For the Fifth Time

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If only because I’m tired of seeing my terrible mock draft at the top of the page, I’m going to reflect on the series finale of NBC’s The Office tonight. Spoilers on the series will be included, so read at your own risk.

In some ways The Office has become the Brett Favre of comedies. It’s been around forever, but every time you think it’s gone, it comes back.

But no more retirement games as tonight’s episode is indeed the series finale. While some people have followed the show since the British original from 2001, my experience with the show has been very unique, and I just wanted to share it on this day.

This is going to feel like the fifth time I have said goodbye to The Office ….all in a span of six months, and yet it feels like 12 years.

Back in 2001 I was more likely to think “BBC” meant something vulgar than its real meaning. I didn’t know who Ricky Gervais was. So it was a happy time, you could say.

By the time the show was developed for American television in 2005, I was hardly watching any TV series not named 24, which oddly enough was announced this week that it is coming back. I did not have a DVR until 2007. Netflix was not streaming on my Playstation 3 until last April.

Frankly, I thought the show looked stupid. I didn’t care for the mockumentary style, as though I am a fan of narration, breaking the fourth wall and talking straight to the camera has never been a tactic I enjoy. Technically they have an audience when they talk to the camera in these things, but come on. I can see through your parlor tricks.

So I avoided the show for quite a while, along with just about any sitcom on the big networks at the time. It did not help that I was not a fan of Steve Carell outside of Little Miss Sunshine.

Yet for some reason when I got Netflix last year, I decided to queue up both the British and American versions. It wasn’t until about September that I actually watched them. One Saturday afternoon I watched the British pilot followed immediately by the American pilot, which was basically a shortened version of Gervais’ work.

Sure, I liked that the British characters were able to swear, even if they were hard to understand at times. I sparingly watched it, though did have a wild coincidence on a Wednesday night with it.

After a caller into our Colts Authority radio show dropped “big black cock” on the air, I watched the British version afterwards. Sure enough it was the season 2 opener where there was a joke centered on a “big black cock.” The BBC was literally haunting me that night.

Initially I did like the British version more, though during football season it was hard to find time to really watch either. I did start grinding away on the American version, but it wasn’t until maybe November when I finished the British version’s 14 episodes. The good guy gets the receptionist in the end. What a shocker.

With the conclusion of the British version, that was the first time I said goodbye to The Office.

Through the holiday season I started picking up steam on the American version, watching a couple hours of episodes at a time. I thought the show was progressing well. When people live and breathe with a show each week, it is easy for them to wear down over the years. But if you watch it in mini-marathon viewings, you’ll see most shows maintain their quality for season after season, if not getting better as you grow to love the characters.

And that I did.

Carell actually didn’t annoy the shit out of me anymore (at least not that much). Rainn Wilson was no longer that “goofy looking dude who was in Super” to me. Jenna Fischer says more with her eyes than most actresses can with their mouths. John Krasinski took the bowl off his head and Brian Baumgartner started going full meathead. The less David Koechner, the better. Ed Helms was tolerable from The Hangover, while Ellie Kemper was a great addition as the new receptionist.

I wanted to kill Toby too.

My favorite episode was probably “Dinner Party” from season 4. You know, that one night?

As I was getting close to finishing season 7 in January, I was already aware Michael Scott leaves the show in “Goodbye Michael”. Normally it would be TV suicide to lose your main character, but that is why this is the second time I said goodbye to The Office as I knew it.

With a few minor changes, that really could have been the series finale right there. Hell, they didn’t even make it the season 7 finale. Bold move to continue, but so be it, NBC.

Now after seven seasons and the loss of the main character, this is when I noticed the quality of the show began to decay. They tried to make Andy Bernard, perhaps thanks to Helms’ film success, the new Michael Scott. I like Andy’s character, but this just didn’t work. Season 8 featured many scenes and episodes outside of the office, which kind of defeats the purpose of the show. About the only thing I liked in this season was more screen time for Erin.

I even had my longest Netflix marathon ever one night to finish this season, watching 15 episodes in a row. Like that I was done with all eight seasons and the 169 episodes Netflix had to offer. Usually this sense of accomplishment means you are done with a series, but The Office was still going.

Since Comcast is a joke and only had a few mid-season episodes from Season 9 available OnDemand, I ended up getting Hulu Plus in February. Annoyed with their commercial breaks, I plodded through the first 15 episodes, not particularly enjoying much of what I was seeing. The new characters were not interesting, Nellie has not been a good addition, and even staples of the show like Jim and Pam were just boring at this point.

When I finished the series on Hulu, I was finally all caught up to the live show, which some people have already been caught up on for eight (or 12) years. It took me five months.

That was the fourth time I said goodbye to The Office.

My first chance to watch the show live was missed as I had to DVR and watch it later (but no commercials is always a plus).

So the first live episode I ever watched was “The Farm”, which is literally the single worst episode ever made in the 201-episode series. Good thing for NBC they canceled this attempt at a spin-off on Dwight’s farm family, because it was horrible.

The last five episodes have largely shown a series running on fumes to get to the finale. “Stairmageddon” was another low point for the series. At least last week’s episode recalled some vintage moments from the show’s early days. Is the show even old enough in my head to call anything about it vintage?

But now here we are with one 55-minute “Finale” to go. The series finale to Six Feet Under is such a gold standard that it has ruined my lifelong expectations of all other series finales, so I don’t expect a whole lot from this one.

I think it would be a colossal mistake for Steve Carell to not make an appearance tonight. The fact that it’s a wedding for Dwight and Angela makes it extremely easy to write him in, even if it’s for just one scene.

So that’s that.

When I say goodbye to The Office for the fifth time, I know that this is the only one that counts. While it’s taken many people 8-12 years to get to this point, the show’s only been with me for eight months.

Watching it live tonight, it will feel awkward to say goodbye so soon, but that’s exactly how I want to remember this show: a daily snapshot of awkwardness.

NFL 2013 Mock Draft (1st Round)

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Look, I really don’t like mock drafts. But since some people have asked if I will do one, and since I entered a contest on NFL.com for one, I might as well share my sure to be failure of a mock. One little change and suddenly you have to make major changes. I tried to match players the teams actually need, but we know everyone has their own drafting methods.

If I get five right I’ll call it a good effort. But that’s the thing with mock drafts. Someone can spend 100 hours and get fewer picks right than the person throwing a list into Excel and doing a random number generator to make their picks.

  1. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Luke Joeckel
  2. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Dion Jordan
  3. Oakland Raiders – DT Sharrif Floyd
  4. Philadelphia Eagles – DT Star Lotulelei
  5. Detroit Lions – OT Eric Fisher
  6. Cleveland Browns – CB Dee Milliner
  7. Arizona Cardinals – OG Chance Warmack
  8. Buffalo Bills – QB Ryan Nassib
  9. NY Jets – DE Barkevious Mingo
  10. Tennessee Titans – OT D.J. Fluker
  11. San Diego Chargers – OG Jonathan Cooper
  12. Miami Dolphins – DE Ezekiel Ansah
  13. NY Jets – QB E.J. Manuel
  14. Carolina Panthers – OT Lane Johnson
  15. New Orleans Saints – DL Sheldon Richardson
  16. St. Louis Rams – WR Tavon Austin
  17. Pittsburgh Steelers – LB Jarvis Jones
  18. Dallas Cowboys – DL Johnathan Hankins
  19. NY Giants – CB Xavier Rhodes
  20. Chicago Bears – LB Arthur Brown
  21. Cincinnati Bengals – S Kenny Vaccaro
  22. St. Louis Rams – DE Bjoren Werner
  23. Minnesota Vikings – LB Manti Te’o
  24. Indianapolis Colts – DE Damontre Moore
  25. Minnesota Vikings – QB Geno Smith
  26. Green Bay Packers – DL Cornellius Carradine
  27. Houston Texans – WR Cordarrelle Patterson
  28. Denver Broncos – DL Datone Jones
  29. New England Patriots – WR Justin Hunter
  30. Atlanta Falcons – TE Tyler Eifert
  31. San Francisco 49ers – S Eric Reid
  32. Baltimore Ravens – WR Keenan Allen

The beauty of this thing is I don’t care how I do, and I  spent more time typing these out than putting it together.

Just let me know when the games start and we see how good these players really are. At least half of them will likely disappoint.

I also would like to further go on record in believing Cordarrelle Patterson is going to be a bust, and Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson will be the best NFL QB in this class.

Mock.

UPDATE (1:00 A.M. Friday morning)

That was worse than expected. The only pick I got right was Jarvis Jones to Pittsburgh. Guess I still know the Steelers at least…

I did match up Tavon Austin to St. Louis and Eric Reid to San Francisco, but at much different numbers.

So be it.

Reaching For Value in the NFL Draft

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Rather than try to do a Twitter rant with a 140-character limit, I just wanted to share some thoughts on NFL teams “reaching” in the draft.

Let’s look at a hypothetical. A team holds the 15th and 47th picks in the draft. The player they want is roughly the 32nd-best prospect on the board according to most teams and experts. Should the team still pull the trigger on that player, which could be considered a reach, or should they take someone with closer “value” to the No. 15 pick?

(Note: Literally just as I was going to hit “Publish”, I saw a link that made me realize this hypothetical is essentially the real-life example of Seattle and Bruce Irvin last year.)

I say you take the player you want and ignore the so-called “reach” criticism. What’s valuable is getting the player that you feel best fits your system and need. There’s a good chance that player would not be there when you pick again at 47. There is no guarantee you could trade down and get the player in the 20s or 30s; supposedly closer to where he is “supposed to go.” It takes two to tango.

Remember, when these Mel Kiper/Mike Mayock types rank players, they are looking at every position in the draft. The reality is teams are looking at a limited number of positions when it comes to that premium first-round pick. If Geno Smith is the best player available at No. 17, that doesn’t mean a damn thing to the Pittsburgh Steelers, because they have a quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger.

Let’s look at a real example with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year. Last week I broke down whether or not Tampa Bay should be trading for Darrelle Revis.

These are the only positions the Buccaneers, who pick 13th (for now), should be considering with that pick: TE, WR, DE, DT, OLB, and CB.

You could argue it’d be no different in the second round (43rd overall) for Tampa as well. I almost didn’t include WR because of Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams as starters, though you could imagine the value of a Tavon Austin in the slot in that offense. Still, it’s a fringe need for this team.

But the point is Tampa Bay is only looking at a few different positions, so their board is far different from many teams and that of the experts who will instantly be analyzing these picks. If Texas safety Kenny Vacarro is the best player available when Tampa Bay picks, then you can’t fault them when they pass given they have Mark Barron and Dashon Goldson. If they take a player that’s only 25th on Mel Kiper’s big board at No. 13, then you better adjust it for all the players Kiper had listed at positions Tampa Bay didn’t need to fill.

After you do that, you’ll likely see it was hardly a reach.

Historically, the 13th pick holds more value than the 32nd pick, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to produce a better player in every case. So you should focus on taking the best player for your team, even if he supposedly isn’t worth a top 15 pick. Every single year there are players who go at the end of the round that are much better than players at the start of that round.

That’s one of the many issues with analysis of a process so inexact. No matter who’s doing the mock draft, no one really knows how a team feels about the players they have and what they think they really need to upgrade. That’s why you end up with draft results that are so drastically different from expectations, which is how you end up with “that team reached!”

But the only real reach is thinking one can ever predict how a NFL draft will unfold.

A Ray Lewis Super Bowl Tackle and the NFL’s Need for Offensive Line Stats

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Jonathan Ogden was elected to the Hall of Fame in a rather easy choice this past weekend on his first ballot attempt. Ogden was a mammoth of a man and had all the proper accolades you would expect from a HOF left tackle.

But how much do we really know about his domination? Offensive linemen do not have stats the way skill position players or even defensive players have. Most of their value is based on Pro Bowls and All-Pro selections, which are proven to be heavily influenced by draft status. If Maurkice Pouncey was a 2nd-round pick for the Carolina Panthers, played the exact same way he has for Pittsburgh, then he would not have a single Pro Bowl in his career.

Ogden’s teammate Ray Lewis of course earned his second Super Bowl ring on Sunday, but it was hardly for his on-field play this season. Here is one of the tackles Lewis was credited with an assist on. Watch San Francisco RG Alex Boone (#75) pull to the left and miss the block entirely.

aboone

No wonder this offense struggled in the red zone. This is why some running plays gain three yards instead of seven. You would have to watch every play for every linemen to come up with statistics like stops, pancakes, sacks allowed, etc. But there are sites (Pro Football Focus) and people (KC Joyner) who have proven to be willing to do so. I currently do not have access to the premium section on PFF, but when I did, I honestly cannot recall if they had such stats for individual linemen.

We’re going to need them if people ever want to truly figure out which players are blocking well, and which keep tackling Manti Te’o’s girlfriend.

Greg McElroy Begins Jets Career with Perfect Comeback Start

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Mark Sanchez played poorly and was pulled on Sunday in place of the backup quarterback, who promptly led the offense on a game-winning drive for the New York Jets over the Arizona Cardinals.

This scenario has been expected for many months now, but no one imagined it would have been Greg McElroy at quarterback rather than Tim Tebow.

These are the moments Tebow has built his NFL career on, but he was nowhere to be found Sunday, missing the game with a rib injury.

McElroy, on the very first drive of his career, led a game-winning touchdown march, hitting Jeff Cumberland for the easiest 1-yard touchdown pass you may ever see. He even contributed to the last drive which consumed the final 7:55 off the clock in a 7-6 win.

Rarely does a quarterback lead a fourth-quarter comeback and game-winning drive in his first NFL game, but I have started to compile a list of occurrences.

4QC/GWD in NFL Debut:

  • Bob Waters (1960)
  • Warren Rabb (1961)
  • Sam Etcheverry (1961)
  • Archie Manning (1971)
  • Clint Longley (1974)
  • Jerry Golsteyn (1977)
  • Turk Schonert (1981)
  • Dieter Brock (1985)
  • Steve Young (1985)
  • Bernie Kosar (1985)
  • Brian McClure (1987)
  • Mike Kelley (1987)
  • Jim Druckenmiller (1997)
  • Ryan Leaf (1998)
  • Jake Delhomme (1999; 4QC only)
  • A.J. Feeley (2001)
  • Brian St. Pierre (2004)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (2005)
  • Greg McElroy (2012)

Not sure anyone on the list but McElroy was able to accomplish it on their very first drive. If you broke it down that way, he’d be batting 1.000 in clutch drive success rate.

Is it the most impressive list? Not at all, but the win should create another quarterback controversy in New York.

Just not the one we all expected.

2012 NFL Predictions

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Even if I’m writing for four websites this season, that doesn’t mean any of them care about my personal predictions for the 2012 NFL season. That is fine, and that is why this blog exists.

The week-by-week win-loss prediction is probably the smartest way to go about it, but I am not interested in predicting records as much as I am predicting the general level of success or failure the 32 teams will have this season.

AFC East

1. New England Patriots – The 16-0 talk is nonsense, because this team is not good enough to compensate for an off day by their offense or defense, but with a ridiculously easy schedule, you can put 12 wins in the bank. This is one of the worst divisions in the league, and the Patriots should have no problem running away with it.

2. Buffalo Bills – Feel like darkhorse (very dark) Wild Card team, but I do not have confidence in Ryan Fitzpatrick playing consistently enough. Seven years in the league and we’ve never seen it, no reason he would start now. At least the schedule is favorable, and the defense should be improved.

3. New York Jets – The weekly circus, I find it hard to believe Mark Sanchez makes it through the entire season as the starter. One benching and one Tim Tebow miracle later, and it is game over for Sanchez in New York. The defense should be better than last year, but this weapons-lacking offense looks to have taken a step back.

4. Miami Dolphins – I will have spent more time watching Hard Knocks than probably watching the Dolphins play this year. Shaping up to be a brutal season. Reggie Bush will get some yards, Cameron Wake will get some sacks, but there’s not much else to see here. This has to be the worst set of receivers any team has had in recent years.

AFC North

1. Baltimore Ravens – I’m actually a bit down on this division this year, and that goes for all four teams. They had three playoff teams last year, but that will not happen again when they are playing the NFC East and AFC West. The Ravens have had their share of losses player-wise, Terrell Suggs’ injury is as big as any team’s biggest injury this year, though somehow I think Joe Flacco has a career year and offsets any possible regression on defense.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers – Not feeling great about the hometown team this season. The “upgraded” offensive line has quickly been reduced to the same subpar group because of injuries and Mike Adams being the disappointing risk everyone knew he might be on draft day. Mike Wallace is back, but how many weeks until he is back at 100 percent in this to-be-determined Todd Haley offense? Love what Antonio Brown brings, but this offense needs the big plays from Wallace. The defense is about what you should always expect: very good against the run, and a real question mark when they play the better passing offenses and quarterbacks. Just have a feeling this could be one of those 8-9 win seasons that’s not good enough for the playoffs.

3. Cincinnati Bengals – If Andy Dalton and A.J. Green are the next great QB/WR combo, then this team has a shot to have consecutive winning seasons, which is something Marvin Lewis has never done as coach. I think they win 7-9 games and miss the playoffs. I like some of their defensive pieces, but I don’t have full faith in Dalton taking it up to a higher level than last year, and I also don’t like their wide receivers after Green. Do like Green-Ellis over the departed Cedric Benson though.

4. Cleveland Browns – Different year, same old shi+.

AFC South

1. Houston Texans – This is their window of opportunity as they have the best team in the division, and one of the best in the conference. Matt Schaub’s return should spark the offense more, though even if he goes down again (real possibility), T.J. Yates gained some great experience last season and can keep things going. Love the combo of Arian Foster and Andre Johnson as their main weapons. Not sure the defense can improve or be just as good as last year, but the specific loss of Mario Williams is overblown. They still have guys that can get to the quarterback, and Wade is a better coordinator than he is a coach.

2. Tennessee Titans – I still can’t figure this team out from last year. They did some things really well, and some things really bad, hence 9-7 and such an enigma. Now they go with Jake Locker at quarterback, and I am very interested to see how he does after a few good showings in limited action last season. He probably won’t complete 60% of his passes, but he might have a high yards per completion average and can run very well.

3. Indianapolis Colts – All in on Andrew Luck, and what once looked like a 4-win season actually could turn into about 7 wins if he plays as well as he seems capable. The receiving corps is much better than given credit for, and Luck will make them better with his accuracy. It was hard to watch the Colts last year, but this season will be very entertaining.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars – Maurice Jones-Drew is the best player on the team, but because he is a running back, he actually is one of the easiest to replace. He’s back from his holdout, and while I’m sure he will put up some numbers by season’s end, everything hinges on Blaine Gabbert improving and using rookie Justin Blackmon to great effect. I’m not sold on that, and I didn’t like the hiring of Mike Mularkey either.

AFC West

1. Denver Broncos – It’s Peyton Manning, so unless the Broncos’ defense allows the most points in the league, that should mean an automatic 10 wins and the playoffs, just like 11 of Manning’s 13 seasons in Indianapolis. He may not be the same exact guy he was in 2010, but he’s still an all-time great. The schedule is tough, but that’s still true for the rest of the division too.

2. San Diego Chargers – Guess it hasn’t been applicable to call San Diego “the most talented team” for a few years now, and things have certainly changed from their past playoff appearances. Names like Tomlinson, Merriman, Williams, Jackson and McNeil are all gone. Philip Rivers should bounce back after a career-worst season last year, but I don’t think San Diego gained enough ground to get back into the playoff bracket.

3. Kansas City Chiefs – I want to say Romeo Crennel will figure it out with what should be his most talented team as a head coach, but I don’t see  a winning record for the Chiefs this year. Matt Cassel only excels when he gets to play a lot of really bad defenses (2008, 2010). He will be better this season with the return of Jamaal Charles and Tony Moeaki, but he is much more of a stopgap QB than a franchise player. Defense will have to carry the team, but the offense will let them down enough to miss the playoffs.

4. Oakland Raiders – “If Darren McFadden stays healthy” he will rush for a bunch of yards, and none of it will really matter as long as Carson Palmer is throwing bi-monthly pick parades. I think the AFC West is a bit loaded with quarterbacks vying for the role of Hollow Man: putting up a lot of empty stats. Palmer has essentially been doing that almost every year since 2006. I also think the defense will be one of the worst in the league, and with so many good offenses in the schedule, they will be torched quite a bit this season.

NFC East

1. New York Giants – They didn’t even win 10 games last year, but it was enough for the division and a Super Bowl run. I expect the Giants to be a better regular season team this year, though don’t count on them to win the close games the way they did last year. Think of it like 2008 when they got better as a team after winning the Super Bowl. Just keep Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz away from guns and nightclubs.

2. Dallas Cowboys – They have a lot of injuries to deal with at the start of the season, but so did the Giants last year. Key thing is they are getting through it now, and as long as they can start off respectable in the win column, they will be a Wild Card team by season’s end. I’ll trust Tony Romo over Michael Vick any day.

3. Philadelphia Eagles – If Andy Reid goes 8-8, he gets fired right? Tough pressure on a guy going through hell, but it has been a long, ring-less tenure in Philadelphia for Reid. Unfortunately he is tied down to one of the league’s least dependable quarterbacks, and it has been years since the defense carried the team. The Eagles should win at least 8 games again, but they’re going to miss the playoffs.

4. Washington Redskins – The Redskins finally have a quarterback to be excited about again. But they are at least a year away from doing any real damage in the NFC. RG III will finish as the runner-up to Luck in the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting.

NFC North

1. Green Bay Packers – Things won’t be as smooth as last season, but the Packers should cruise to another 12+ wins and tons of touchdowns on the board. The defense will give up fewer yards, but lowering the points will be the real goal. They cannot keep relying on takeaways.

2. Chicago Bears – Expecting a career-year for Jay Cutler. This should be the best offense he’s been apart of, and the defense is still one of the better groups in the league.

3. Detroit Lions – Nice story last season, but I think Detroit comes up short in their bid to repeat as a Wild Card team. They are not as balanced or deep as Green Bay and Chicago, and it’s always difficult to make the playoffs when you’re the 3rd best in your division. They probably never make it last year if not for Cutler’s injury.

4. Minnesota Vikings – Don’t ruin Adrian Peterson for your next head coach by rushing him back too soon, Minnesota. You’re not going anywhere this year.

NFC South

1. Atlanta Falcons – This is always a strange division to predict with the worst-to-first changes, but I’ll take the Falcons because of their consistency at the top, and I like what a second-year Julio Jones can bring to the offense. Matt Ryan is another QB I see a career season coming from. It’s about time for the Falcons to win a playoff game.

2. New Orleans Saints – If Drew Brees has a very good season again, expect him to win his first MVP award with the “no head coach” argument being his biggest reason. While it seems like Sean Payton is the mastermind of this offense, for Brees to keep things rolling (with a so-so defense too) without him this year would be a very impressive performance. But if you’ll recall those slip-up games last year against Tampa Bay and St. Louis, I expect at least two more of those this season, which is how Atlanta will end up with the division.

3. Carolina Panthers – Maybe this is a good time for Carolina to rise up and sneak into the playoffs, but I still think they’re another year away. The defense will be better with the healthy/improved LB corps, but they’re still not a great unit. Cam Newton won’t slump hard, but I don’t expect him to do as much as he did last year.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Josh Freeman bounces back with an improved offense and new head coach Greg Schiano, but it’s not enough in what might be the NFL’s deepest division.

NFC West

1. San Francisco 49ers – Already wrote all about the 49ers this week. They’ll win 9-10 games, enough for the NFC West, but it won’t be like last season.

2. Seattle Seahawks – I like what Russell Wilson was showing this preseason, but he in large part was not doing it against starters. It will look much different in the real games, and I don’t think he’s your next Dan Marino/Ben Roethlisberger (rookie QB God). Still, really like the young defense, and a motivated Marshawn Lynch runs well.

3. St. Louis Rams – I actually think Jeff Fisher will find 6-7 wins out of this team. Sam Bradford really needs to start playing better, or else the Rams will have to start looking ahead at the QB position. Just 6 touchdown passes in 10 games does not get it done when you have these other teams throwing 40-50 TDs last season. The defense also has huge strides to take.

4. Arizona Cardinals – Here’s a good candidate for your No. 1 pick in the draft. I cannot imagine how the Cardinals do any better than 4-12 this season. John Skelton is not the messiah, and his close-game success is not going to repeat itself.

Playoffs

AFC

  1. New England
  2. Houston
  3. Baltimore
  4. Denver
  5. Pittsburgh
  6. Buffalo

NFC

  1. Green Bay
  2. Atlanta
  3. NY Giants
  4. San Francisco
  5. New Orleans
  6. Dallas

Super Bowl: Dallas over Baltimore

I only picked two new playoff teams, so you know this won’t happen. What else can one do? San Diego for Pittsburgh? Chicago for New Orleans? Seattle for San Francisco?

And did I really just pick Dallas to beat Baltimore? Yes, because it’s about time the AFC has something not named New England, Pittsburgh or Peyton in there, and the Ravens were a play away last season. As for Dallas, the NFC is often so random, and I just think they’ll take a 2011 Giants-esque approach to the big game.

It’s a better pick than the boring people who have gone with “Green Bay vs. New England” the last three years. I tried to find teams that will overcome some adversity and peak at the right time, because that’s the way it has mostly been done since the 2005 season.

Yet when I look over my picks, I realized I left Chicago out of the playoffs, even though I wanted to put them in. Yet, if I put them in, it means no New Orleans or Dallas, which would really throw off my picks for MVP (Brees) and the Super Bowl.

So in conclusion, let’s just enjoy that the season is beginning, and forget about the half-assed predictions we are throwing out there right now. The only certainty is that you can expect a good share of the unexpected to happen.