NFL 2024 Week 10 Predictions: All Eyes on Washington Edition

If you thought the title would be a nod to the 2024 election this week, you’d be right. If you think I’m going to give Orange Caligula any more oxygen in this space right now, you’d be wrong. He should die of gonorrhea and rot in hell. The Washington I’m watching this weekend is the Commanders, and I’m excited to finally see a full live game with Jayden Daniels. I think Steelers-Commanders is clearly the highlight game on Sunday, and we’ll see if a return by Nico Collins in Houston could bolster that matchup on SNF.

But I also want to quickly point out that Week 9 was a great reminder that you don’t always have to pick underdogs just for the sake of picking them. I’ve been guilty of that a lot this season as I didn’t want to just publish picks where the favorite covers and wins. But in Week 9, favorites were 14-1 SU (God damn Saints) and 10-5 ATS. Almost perfect.

Favorites have been on a good run after a lot of upsets early this season in the games with the biggest spreads. But now that we’re into the second half of the 2024 regular season, we are seeing this is a top-heavy season. There are nine teams with just 2 wins going into Sunday. The last team who makes the playoffs in the AFC could be a mess unless the Bengals or Jets finish strong. The NFC is stronger, but the NFC West has been messy with the teams blowing double-digit leads against each other as they jumble around .500 right now. The Cowboys have fallen apart sooner than expected.

It’s getting easier to pick winners since the games are usually playing out as lopsided as they look on paper now. But I will say that doesn’t apply to Sunday’s first game in Germany where we somehow sent the Giants and Panthers. We’re not sending (or voting for) our best.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 10 Predictions

Silly me for thinking the Ravens-Bengals would at least try to play a different game script than Week 5. But it turned into more of the same with the Bengals choking away a game they should have won (again). Maybe neither team ultimately decides who wins the Super Bowl this year, but the thin margin in those games is something else. We’re two solid snaps away from the Bengals at 6-4 and the Ravens at 5-5 right now.

Panthers-Giants: Not a chance I won’t be sawing logs during this one. But I think Carolina can build off its win and use Chuba Hubbard against that poor run defense. Giants having to win by 6.5 against anyone with Daniel Jones feels like a lot.

Patriots-Bears: Not sure how to react to Bears playing so poorly on offense since the bye. Just banking on hope that Maye makes some mistakes and Caleb channels his 2022 Justin Fields against the New England defense with a big game.

Bills-Colts: I’m very tempted to take both the Bills and Chiefs to struggle this Sunday with their big showdown a week away. Shades of 1990 Giants-49ers when they were supposed to meet undefeated and both lost the week before. I think Joe Flacco will definitely score more this week to keep the job, but I’m still going to trust the Bills on the road. But I won’t be surprised if they win by 3 and don’t cover.

Vikings-Jaguars: Can Sam Darnold get a call for a blow to the head this week? I just think the Vikings are better on both sides of the ball and should win by a touchdown.

Broncos-Chiefs: Odds are suggesting a 24-17 game and that passes the sniff test for me. Division games are weird. Sean Payton got a couple of cracks at the Chiefs last year. At least Mahomes shouldn’t have the flu this time, but I don’t think the Chiefs will score a ton against a team that knows them well and has mostly played good defense this year. All comes down to how Bo Nix handles the blitzes sure to come his way, but I think his mobility could be very useful here. I’ll go with the KC classic: they win and don’t cover.

Falcons-Saints: This is going against the grain but I’m calling for the upset. Everyone is shitting on the Saints, including the Pope having fun with hashtags on Twitter. But I think they get a first-game interim coach boost, they’re due for a 4QC win (none since 2023 started), and the Falcons needed 2 return touchdowns to beat them at home earlier this season. The losing streak stops here. If not, then I’m probably not picking them the rest of the season in any game.

49ers-Bucs: CMC is finally back, but even if he wasn’t, I think the 49ers coming off a bye and feeling healthier is an easy pick against the Bucs, who left the tank empty on Monday night in KC. I view this game quite similarly to Jags-Vikings this week. I know, the 6.5-point spread is the kiss of death this season, but I just feel good about the 49ers here.

Steelers-Commanders: I think it’s a 23-20 type of game that comes down to the last seconds and a FG. I’m going to go with Washington, because I believe the Steelers aren’t well prepared for this impressive rookie who can attack them at every level of the field. Unfamiliar opponents. Of course, it wouldn’t shock me if the Steelers won 23-17. Why that score? That’s the score they won by on the road in Arizona in 2019 against Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray, and that’s the score Washington won by in Pittsburgh in 2020 on a Monday, the game that was the beginning of the end for the Pittsburgh offense looking functional under Big Ben. But I’m still going to trust Jayden Daniels in this one as he’s actually 5-0 ATS as a favorite this year. It should be fun.

Titans-Chargers: Will Levis is back, and he’s facing the No. 1 scoring defense? Then I think the streak of games under 40 points for the Chargers can continue. Give me LA 23-13.

Jets-Cardinals: It’s not so much that I believe the Jets are going to start reeling off wins, but I just don’t know what to make of Arizona yet. Apparently I’m not alone as this is a small spread in a week with 8 games having a spread of 5.5 and higher.

Cowboys-Eagles: You might say the Eagles should dominate, but they nearly blew a 22-0 lead to Trevor Lawrence last week. Mike McCarthy usually does a respectable job with backup QBs like Cooper Rush, who made it a 20-17 game in the fourth quarter in 2022 when he was in Philly on SNF with the Eagles during their peak run to that Super Bowl year. He lost 26-17 in the end, and he threw 3 picks, but I think the Cowboys will actually make this respectable before losing again. Backdoor cover is always an option.

Lions-Texans: Preview link above but I just think the Texans are the inferior team here, and the Lions should keep rolling. But I am intrigued by the No. 1 defense in lowest completion % vs. No. 1 QB in highest completion % as Goff is over 83% in his last 5 games. But if it’s actually close, don’t discount some C.J. Stroud magic now that Nico Collins is back. Still, it’s a bummer Diggs tore his ACL as this one had high potential for a non-conference game on SNF. It still might deliver.

Dolphins-Rams: I always say fade the Dolphins on the road against good teams, but are the Rams still good? It’s hard to say, but I’m taking them with their weapons. Hopefully we can avoid a Puka ejection this week.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 9

When I tweeted that the NFL’s Week 9 Sunday action was the weakest this season, I was ignoring a few individual highlight plays I’ll link below in the recaps. But a great play does not make for a great game. I think in the end, it was the weakest for these reasons:

  • As I expected between Jordan Love’s groin and the rain, Lions-Packers did not live up to the Game of the Week hype it deserved under normal circumstances.
  • Favorites are 13-1 SU this week (10-4 ATS) with the 9.5-point favored Chiefs still to host Tampa Bay on Monday night.
  • Only the Saints (-7.5) lost to the Panthers, and is it ever really a big upset if Derek Carr is on the losing end? He also was getting roasted by Michael Thomas on Twitter during the game, so he was losing either way today.
  • Not only was Saints-Panthers the only upset, it was the only game Sunday with a fourth-quarter lead change, so that game stood out from the pack and it wasn’t anything special.
  • Sure, 7-of-14 games had a comeback opportunity and there were a pair of overtime games, but neither actually had a lead change, and the teams who came back late to tie it with a great touchdown drive still ended up losing in overtime.
  • The only other fourth-quarter comeback in Week 9 was the Jets on Thursday night against Houston, a game script that the Vikings largely followed in their 21-13 (same score) win over the Colts on Sunday night.

Not a very original week even if there were some cool plays.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Dolphins at Bills: Unexpected Game of the Week

I am so used to Miami bombing in these road games against contenders that I didn’t think much of this 5.5-point spread in Buffalo. But the Dolphins did play them tough there in both games in the 2022 season, and they had Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback. He actually had one of the best games of his career in a loss as he completed 25-of-28 passes for 231 yards.

But the long drives by both teams magnified every mistake. So when Miami only gets 7 real possessions in the game, Raheem Mostert giving one away with a fumble at midfield is a bigger deal.

The Bills also felt that sting when Keon Coleman turned a catch into an interception by Jalen Ramsey in the second quarter. Maybe the turnover luck is starting to go south for Buffalo, but it still prevailed in this one after getting some key penalties on third down in the fourth quarter. The last one was just an incredibly stupid gift by Jordan Poyer, who hit a defenseless receiver on a pass that was going to be incomplete. That’s a season-ending type of stupid play given the AFC East records.

But when the Bills were stalled at the Miami 43, I was a little surprised to see Tyler Bass come out for a 61-yard field goal. He’s been struggling this season, he missed an extra point in this game, but they trusted him for the win. He absolutely drilled the kick too to give the Bills a 30-27 lead, which stood up after Jaylen Waddle had one of the worst lateral attempts you’ll ever see, which also cost Tua his passing over prop.

Lions at Packers: Old School Football Wins

Again, I wasn’t expecting much from this game because of the wet field and Jordan Love’s groin injury. But I don’t want to act like the Lions beat up on an immobile starter who should have sat out this week. Love didn’t take any sacks in this game, he threw for 273 yards, but it was this killer pick-six before halftime that changed everything and made a 10-3 game a 17-3 game:

I’ve watched that several times and I’m still not sure what the plan was for 2nd-and-1. Were they trying to set up a slow-developing screen for the RB? Should he just hit the tight end leaking out into the flat for the first down with under 40 seconds left? Every other receiver went flying down the field and out of reach, but this just looked bad and Love never should have thrown that one.

Then the Lions came out of the break with their last touchdown drive, and just like that they doubled scored on them to make it 24-3. Goodnight. Did Tom Brady sign a contract clause that every FOX game he calls has to be a boring rout?

The best Green Bay could do was make it 24-14 with 3:49 left. But Goff and the offense was able to run out the clock for another win, their third season in a row winning at Lambeau. Hopefully the Packers can return the favor in the rematch, but the Lions looked better prepared to handle the elements. They didn’t turn it over once against the No. 1 defense for takeaways. Meanwhile, Love had 3 fumbles (none lost) to go along with that pick-six as the slick ball was problematic for the Packers.

Broncos at Ravens: Denver’s Not Ready for This

Sunday was a litmus test for the Broncos, and it sure did not go well in a 41-10 rout. It’s one thing to beat teams like the Panthers, Raiders, and Saints, but the Broncos needed to show something here, and it ended up being a miserable day on both sides of the ball. They gave up a perfect passer rating to Lamar Jackson, who only had to throw 19 passes since his receivers were so open and ready for big plays, and Derrick Henry carved them up for another multi-touchdown day and 133 total yards.

But I wouldn’t say rookie Bo Nix was a disaster against this defense. He moved the ball, he even caught his first touchdown on a trick play, but the Broncos were 1-for-5 on fourth down, and that hurt. The first failure came early when Javonte Williams for some reason didn’t stretch the ball out on a fourth-down run, so he was ruled short on a challenge. That set up the Ravens on a short field and the rout was on.

Denver had 6 drives inside Baltimore territory (4 in the red zone) and only came away with 10 points. That’s just not good enough. Some defenses have done a decent job of slowing down the Ravens this year, but the Broncos were one of the worst against them. Guess it’s just not the same as playing Bryce Young, Spencer Rattler, the 2-headed monster in Vegas, or getting Aaron Rodgers in the rain.

The Broncos (5-4) may exceed expectations this year, but this team is still far from ready to seriously compete in the AFC playoffs. That’s what Sunday showed.

Chargers at Browns: They Really Did Give Justin Herbert a Defense

What does it take to get a game with the Chargers to 40 points this season? Even the 27-10 final in this one is misleading as the Browns scored a touchdown in garbage time. But if you thought Jameis Winston was going to get into a shootout with Justin Herbert like I did, we were dead wrong. Winston threw three picks as the Chargers repeatedly turned him away.

Meanwhile, what a game for Herbert. He threw for 250 yards and took 6 sacks in the first half alone, hitting on several big plays to his unheralded receivers. He barely had to do anything in the second half, but that’s the nice thing about having a defense and a running game you can rely on to close games.

The Chargers (5-3) are showing they can throw the ball when they have to, and the defense still hasn’t let anyone score more than 20 points this season. It’s an intriguing team for January.

Rams at Seahawks: NFC West Is a Mess

This game had me slipping in and out of a nap as I’d he awakened by the next killer Geno Smith interception, including a 103-yard return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter that gave the Rams a 20-13 lead.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1853226818276626684

Are you kidding me, Geno? He also took 7 sacks. But the Rams could not put this one away in a game where they had 13 possessions. I’d be curious about Sean McVay’s success rate in the 4-minute offense because it sure feels like he always plays it so conservatively and puts the game on his defense. Well, it almost cost them here as the Rams gave up the game-tying touchdown with 51 seconds left as Smith temporarily redeemed himself.

I thought the Seahawks might go for 2, but I guess they thought there was too much time left. So, they played overtime. I don’t disagree with the decision by the Seahawks to go for a 4th-and-1 at the Rams 16 in overtime with 7:19 left. They didn’t get it, but we saw the problem in that spot when the defense gave up another touchdown to Demarcus Robinson, so they would have lost the game anyway if they were up 23-20.

But that 103-yard pick-six was a killer and let’s not forget the Seahawks blew a 13-3 lead before that too. Just a missed opportunity to get to 5-4 in this mess of a division that is already filled with weird comeback wins like this game.

Colts at Vikings: What’s the Plan, Indy?

The Colts have not been a serious organization for several years now. I don’t get how you make a big stink about benching Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco, then come out and look this uninterested in getting Flacco comfortable in the game. He had 10 pass attempts at halftime and 3-of-10 were to running back Jonathan Taylor, who never established the run with 48 yards on 13 carries for the night.

Flacco is a rhythm passer. He needs to get going early and he needs volume. They didn’t do that, so it’s no wonder they only scored two field goals. Their only touchdown was a bogus one on defense on a play that should have been flagged for hitting Sam Darnold in the face, but apparently he doesn’t get those whistles this year (see missed facemask vs. Rams last week).

Richardson could have scored 6 points and taken the loss too. But while I know the Colts use a lot of play-action with both quarterbacks, is that really a good idea for the older, slower Flacco to turn his back to this deceptive Minnesota defense he’s trying to figure out? I would have spread them out early with Flacco in the gun and take my chances with his receivers. But they just never got around to that until they had to, and the pass rush teed off on him.

On the other side, I think you see why the ceiling for this team with Darnold is probably a close divisional round loss. That’s still a hell of a lot better than the expectations for the 2024 Vikings, but he had 3 turnovers and 4 sacks in this game even if the fumble return was bullshit. That’s too many negative plays, and that’s going to cost you in January against a functional opponent (i.e. not the Colts).

Flacco infamously made it through his 2012 Super Bowl run without those big mistakes (thanks for that, Rahim Moore). I’m not sure Darnold can do it, but maybe getting Jordan Addison a nice touchdown and getting tight end T.J. Hockenson back in the mix will elevate this offense going forward.

Jaguars at Eagles: I Was Hoping This Would Be the Only Pennsylvania Choke This Week…

I’m not going to get on board with “fire Nick Sirianni” yet as I see that going around social media today. But I get it, in a way. The Eagles were up 22-0 and almost blew this game with a weird fumble touchdown on a play involving Saquon Barkley where he might have been down by contact but not really. The only blemish to this incredible day for Barkley with this unforgettable highlight:

https://x.com/CoachDanCasey/status/1853191583174107478

Then Jake Elliott couldn’t hit a 57-yard field goal late for the cover and insurance score, so Trevor Lawrence really had a chance in this one even though he led the offense to 1 first down and 16 net passing yards at halftime.

Fortunately, the defense put an end to this mess with an interception in the end zone as the Jags dropped another close game, 28-23. But this one really should not have been this close, and it’ll be interesting to see what happens going forward when the Eagles start playing those division teams like Dallas and Washington.

But hey, a win is a win, which is what I’ll say this week when Orange Caligula goes down too in Pennsylvania and many other places.

Raiders at Bengals: Clueless Team Cleans House

Leave it up to the Raiders to give up 5 touchdown passes (none were to Ja’Marr Chase) and make firing the offensive coaching staff, including coordinator Luke Getsy, the headline after a 41-24 loss.

Any blame for Antonio Pierce’s clueless defense that couldn’t contain Mike Gesicki? But the offense wasn’t good either as the 24 points were a mirage that included a pick-six and a garbage-time score to Brock Bowers.

But how does your offense ever build something when Pierce tries to bench Gardner Minshew every week? They’re onto Desmond Ridder now. Good luck with that. This is what happens when you start a season with the most embarrassing quarterback room in the league.

Bears at Cardinals: The Bears Are Who We Thought They Were

Tale as old as time: The Chicago Bears are struggling in the passing game with rookie Caleb Williams, who took 6 sacks and couldn’t move the chains on third downs.

But a new twist is allowing a 50-plus yards touchdown at the end of a half. The Hail Mary was one thing last week, but this time to end the first half, the Bears somehow gave up a 53-yard run right down the middle of the field to Arizona’s backup runner. How does that happen with 4 seconds left in the half? Does this team not have safeties to drop back as the last line of defense?

It could have been a 14-9 game at halftime with Chicago regrouping, but that just blew it open at 21-9, and the Bears never found the end zone. Oh, they gave up a safety in their own end with a penalty in the end zone later.

But I’m not sure what to make of Arizona yet. The Cardinals are 5-4, the only winning record in the NFC West. But it’s a volatile team in a volatile division this year.

Cowboys at Falcons: Deceivingly Close

I think “Deceivingly Close” would be a good title for a book about the 1996-2024 Dallas Cowboys and their attempt to get back to an NFC Championship Game. It sure doesn’t look like it’s happening this season as the playoffs are in doubt at 3-5.

Dak Prescott left the 27-21 loss with a hamstring injury that could linger, but the game didn’t even feel that close. The Falcons lost Drake London early in the game but not before he caught a touchdown. The Falcons held CeeDee Lamb to 47 yards on 8 catches.

Dallas only scored its last touchdown with 1:28 left to make it a one-score game, but it was over after the Cowboys didn’t recover the onside kick, something Atlanta needed to do against this team in that 2020 fiasco.

But the Falcons continue to look like the best team in the NFC South while the Cowboys are third best in the NFC East at best these days.

Commanders at Giants: Touchdowns at MetLife (But Not Enough)

If your quarterback hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass at home in 672 days, he probably shouldn’t have been your quarterback that long. That’s the case of Daniel Jones, who finally ended his streak on Sunday, but it still wasn’t enough in a 27-22 loss to the Commanders, who are now 7-2 behind the runaway leader for Offensive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels.

It was another very efficient day for Daniels. While they actually made him punt this time, the Giants couldn’t stop Daniels on some key third downs, and that’s how the Commanders stayed a step ahead for the win even though the Giants were finally scoring for a change.

Saints at Panthers: Carr’s Masterpiece Afternoon

What a legacy-defining afternoon for Derek Carr:

  • Threw a couple of hospital balls that knocked Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson out of the game.
  • Got ripped to shreds by former teammate Michael Thomas on Twitter after the Olave play.
  • Wasted a 155-rushing yards day by Alvin Kamara as the offense struggled in the red zone and on third down (5-of-15).
  • Took a fourth-quarter lead, but flubbed the crucial 2-point conversion, which is why the game wasn’t tied late.
  • Only needing a field goal with 2:18 left, Carr couldn’t get past his own 46, turning it over on downs to one of the worst teams in the NFL.
  • The Saints are the first team to ever start 2-0 with 40-point games and go on a 7-game losing streak.
  • Carr is the first quarterback in NFL history to lose a start to 31 different teams.
  • The Saints are the only team without a fourth-quarter comeback win since the 2023 season started (0-4 in those one-score opportunities this year).
  • Chris Olave’s brother backed Thomas’ sentiment that Carr needs his ass whooped, and he said it’s not worth his brother’s health playing in New Orleans.

I wouldn’t be surprised if I woke up to see that Carr got coach Dennis Allen fired for a second time in his NFL career. What a mess in New Orleans.

Patriots at Titans: Drake Maye Has Some Josh Allen in Him

Thanks to Josh Allen, if a quarterback sucks in his first two seasons, we’re going to hear how he could be the next Allen and have a breakout season in Year 3. I’m generally going to be opposed to this, because Allen is an outlier, and his athletic profile makes him an even bigger outlier. People are also going to mischaracterize where he was in Year 2 as we’ve already seen with the 2024 Anthony Richardson comparisons.

But a player I might be willing to give a Year 3 grace period to is Drake Maye, especially when you consider how bare Bill Belichick the GM left the cupboards in New England. If you give this guy a competent team and a good coach, you never know what you might get as he gives off some Allen vibes with his athleticism.

In Tennessee, he played in his first full start that was close at the end, and while he didn’t pass the ball effectively, he ran 8 times for 95 yards, showing that dual-threat ability. But it was with the game on the line on the final play of regulation that Maye pulled off this stunner and clinic on how to extend the play and make it work for a clutch touchdown:

Not bad for holding the ball for about 12 seconds. Unfortunately, the Titans held the ball a long time in overtime, kicked a field goal, and when Maye tried to answer that, he forced a deep ball on first down that he probably didn’t need to and that was easily picked off to end the game at 20-17.

So, he’ll never be the LOAT, he may never reach Josh Allen’s highs, but I see some potential here at least.

Next week: The regular season is already halfway over. Week 10 looks better and starts with an important game in Bengals-Ravens. Giants-Panthers in Germany is maybe the least serious pushing of the NFL product in decades. Broncos in Kansas City loses some luster after that performance Sunday, but never discount a division game’s chances for fvckery. Steelers-Commanders is absolutely a better game this year than Eagles-Cowboys will be. SNF is Lions-Texans, a game that could have been good with Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, but I don’t think Houston stands much of a chance without those guys. Dolphins-Rams on MNF will hopefully come with some touchdowns.

NFL 2024 Week 8 Predictions: Ducking the Dogs Again Edition

As much as I want to believe most NFL teams are mediocre at best this season, I find myself looking over the Week 8 schedule and again struggling to pick upsets. Favorites have had a strong two weeks after faltering to begin this season.

We already had an upset on Thursday night, but it would have been nice to get some actual clarity on the health of the Rams’ wide receivers since that clearly makes a difference. I thought Cooper Kupp had a shot to play, but I didn’t know Puka Nacua was even going to be active until 50 minutes before kickoff. Oh well.

But I think this week has taken a hit as the big 49ers-Cowboys game looks less important with both teams struggling and missing so many key players. Might actually make for a better game and give Dallas more of a chance, because the 49ers have been a big roadblock for them in the NFC since 2021. But it’s not quite must-see TV this Sunday night.

Funny enough, Commanders-Bears was supposed to be a great game for Week 8 so much that the league even flexed it into the late-afternoon slot. In any other year, we’d groan at a matchup between these teams being shown to most of the country, but this one actually had us interested with these rookie quarterbacks. Of course, Jayden Daniels has a rib injury and it isn’t looking great for him to play. Guess we’ll see.

But yeah, I have low expectations for this week, which means it will probably be an epic Sunday of close games after so few last week.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 8 Predictions

Like I said, already failed by the Vikings, who lost their second game this week.

Cardinals-Dolphins: Some hedging here with ATS/ML differences. Could be a rough game for the Cardinals, but they’ve also won on the road against the Steelers and Eagles last year under Gannon. But with Tua Tagovailoa coming back, I could see a 3-point win here for Miami. I believe Kyler and Tua played a game like that in 2020 already.

Jets-Patriots: Look, I’m picking the Jets until they end this losing streak. Belichick is gone, so they can start beating the Pats again, and so far NE is their only dominant win of the season. It may not be 24-3 again, but despite Drake Maye getting production in the passing game for this team, let’s not ignore that they still lost by 20 and 16 points in his starts.

Eagles-Bengals: Nice matchup of teams who peaked in 2022. I’m trusting A.J. Brown to have a big game against that secondary, and I trust Jalen Hurts more than Joe Burrow with the game on the line. Both teams look fishy at times, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it come down to the end.

Packers-Jags: I think Jordan Love has a big game against that defense and Trevor Lawrence struggles against a GB defense that held C.J. Stroud under 100 yards last week. Sweat-free GB win.

Falcons-Bucs: I would absolutely take Tampa in this rematch from Week 5 if Mike Evans and Chris Godwin weren’t out injured. I don’t trust the remaining wideouts for the Bucs, and I think Cousins will bounce back from a bad loss against Seattle against the defense he torched for 509 yards already. Bucs just looked terrible on defense Monday night, leaving receivers open everywhere.

Ravens-Browns: Maybe a trap game for Ravens coming off big road MNF win where they still gave up a lot of points in the end. I think with Kevin Stefanski having Jameis Winston, Nick Chubb, and David Njoku to run this offense instead of Amari Cooper dropping passes from Predator will be good for Cleveland. It just won’t result in a win this week.

Colts-Texans: Indy gave Houston a lot of trouble in Week 1, but the Texans were at their most efficient on offense with Joe Mixon and Nico Collins available. That won’t be the case this time, but Anthony Richardson probably won’t hit a 60+ yard bomb again either. Give me Houston to rebound from last week’s loss.

Titans-Lions: I think this is the biggest spread of the season. I can see Detroit winning a 34-17 game here to cover. The Titans just can’t score much while we know Detroit is rolling right now with big plays.

Saints-Chargers: Very tempted to take Saints ATS but they just looked so bad against the Broncos at home. Harbaugh will have the defense playing tough, and Herbert will get into the end zone this week.

Bills-Seahawks; Good upset spot for Seattle but I just don’t see it without DK Metcalf available. He’s the kind of athletic freak who would be a difference maker in this one as you need to get ahead of Buffalo early and be ready to score a fair number of points.

Bears-Commanders: I think the spread is suggesting bad news for the Commanders getting Jayden Daniels in this matchup. If he plays, you have to worry about an early exit again, and Marcus Mariota likely won’t play as well against a solid defense with an improved offense coming off the bye. But I’m avoiding that game for bets for now until we learn more about Daniels.

Panthers-Broncos: You think Bo Nix getting a 10.5-point spread is funny? It seems crazy, but Bryce Young has scored 13 points in his last 4 starts, the Denver defense is playing great, and the Panthers won’t have Diontae Johnson or Adam Thielen. It could end 20-3 for all we know.

Chiefs-Raiders: I think the Chiefs make up for their Christmas loss to the Raiders with an impressive double-digit win, which would be their third in a row by the way. They like playing in Allegiant Stadium.

Cowboys-49ers: Got the preview link above, but basically I think San Francisco has owned this matchup on both sides of the ball. Dak Prescott hasn’t broke 12 points in his last two games against SF, and the Cowboys won’t have Micah Parsons on defense.

Giants-Steelers: Pittsburgh is 21-0 at home on MNF since 1992. Granted, their last loss was to the Giants in a 23-20 game in 1991. But I am going to trust Russell Wilson to put up some points (not as many as last week), and T.J. Watt to do his best against Daniel Jones.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 6

At the very least, I picked the appropriate week to call my NFL picks “Favoring the Favorites” on Saturday. Favorites just went 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in Week 6 with Monday night pending. I took the underdog Jets for that one, so we’ll see, but it was finally a great day for the favorites.

And what a great day for the NFC North. The Lions blew out the Cowboys on Jerry Jones’ birthday to get some revenge for last year, the Packers routed the Cardinals, the Bears routed the Jaguars, and the 5-0 Vikings had a bye week. But every NFC North team is 4-2 or better, and they are the top four teams in scoring differential pending Buffalo on MNF.

That’s one of the craziest stats I’ve ever seen. But there was not much late-game drama in Week 6. Only six games had a comeback opportunity, including the Seahawks on Thursday night, and the only fourth-quarter lead change all day was in Tennessee.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Commanders at Ravens: Respectable in Defeat

Figures, I got greedy and took Ravens -9.5 and their late 30-20 lead didn’t hold up in this 30-23 final that was right on the spread and total (Ravens -6.5, O/U 51). Vegas nailed that one.

But while the Ravens still won to make both teams 4-2, I think you have to be impressed by the young Commanders and rookie Jayden Daniels. He didn’t have Brian Robinson Jr. and they couldn’t run the ball as he led the team with 22 rushing yards. Their defense has really struggled this year, and this game was no exception with Lamar Jackson throwing for 323 yards on 20-of-26 passing, and Derrick Henry rushed for 132 yards and 2 more touchdowns. The only Baltimore turnover was an interception on the first drive on a pass that went off Mark Andrews’ hands.

But the Commanders hung around the whole game. They had some struggles in Baltimore territory, and their 52-yard field goal was blocked to end the first half. Daniels showed some great ball placement on tough throws to Terry McLaurin, who caught 2 touchdowns (to the chagrin of my best parlays that needed Ekeler or Daniels to run it in).

Even though they lost, I think this is a good measuring stick game for the Commanders, and they should feel solid about how they performed against an elite AFC team. When they look at the rest of the NFC East on Sunday, they can’t feel that bad about this loss.

This game didn’t produce a memorable finish or even a true game-winning drive opportunity, but it was not a Baltimore blowout by any means like they’ve done to so many NFC teams in the Jackson era. Still, he is 22-1 against the NFC now.

Bengals at Giants: Can We Petition the NFL to Stop Putting Daniel Jones in Prime Time?

Daniel Jones is like a Gremlin where you can’t feed him or have him start an NFL game after 8:00 p.m. ET unless you want trouble. Jones is now 1-15 in prime-time starts with the Giants since 2019, and the latest was quite the masterpiece as he lost a 17-7 game at home to the Bengals on Sunday night.

What a week. Bengals fans went from lying about how Patrick Mahomes has never had a defense as bad as the 2024 Bengals, and now let’s see them pass off this game where the Bengals allowed 7 points on 10 drives, the fewest points allowed in Joe Burrow’s first 65 starts.

But it was such a weird game. We would have been scoreless into the third quarter if not for Burrow rushing for a 47-yard touchdown run on a 3rd-and-18 on the opening drive. The red sea parted and he just took off with barely enough speed to reach the pylon.

We were stuck like that for a long time, but the Giants started using four downs to convert some drives, and we eventually had a 10-7 game in the fourth quarter. But not only is Jones horrible in prime time, but we know game-winning drives are not his strength outside of the beginning of that 2022 season. He wasn’t horrific here, but he ran out of steam on a key drive when they had a chance to take the late lead on the Bengals.

Kicker Greg Joseph reminded us he used to kick for the Vikings when he was wide left on a 47-yard field goal that would have tied the game with 10:27 left. But after the Bengals punted, Jones had another chance. It ended with another turnover on downs, the second of the half as he just struggles to make those timing passes into short windows.

Burrow finally made a big play on a 3rd-and-12 with a 29-yard completion, and Chase Brown went from goat to hero (sort of) after scoring a 30-yard touchdown to make it 17-7 with 1:52 left. On the previous snap, Brown fumbled in the open field, which would have been a disaster if the Giants got on the ball before it landed out of bounds.

Brown could have just went down after he got the first, and the game would have been over with kneeldowns. Easiest way to do it and no injury risk to your defenders that way. But he scored to make us forget that fumble (and cover that 3.5-point spread).

On their responding drive, the Giants reached the Cincinnati 27 with the clock ticking under a minute and they spiked the ball with 55 seconds left to bring Joseph out for a 45-yard field goal. He was wide left again and the game was over.

My question is why are teams doing this now? The Broncos did something very similar, if not more egregious, against the Chargers on Sunday in the same situation with a 10-point deficit. Why are we kicking on first down with a minute left with the end zone 20-to-25 yards away? I’d rather take some shots from there to get the touchdown, then I can get my miracle onside kick recovery, then I can set up a long field goal with one or two snaps if it’s going to happen.

That still feels like a better scenario than forcing the field goal, getting the tough onside kick, and possibly having to force a long touchdown play, if not a Hail Mary that’s very low percentage. If you manage the clock and have a play called instead of the spike like the Giants did, you could have been inside the 15 with the clock stopped and 45 seconds left if you use the sidelines.

I don’t know if the Giants and Broncos are just seeing this differently than the rest of the league will, but I didn’t like the rush for the field goal in either scenario Sunday. Even if you recover the onside kick, you’re still going to be about 55 yards from the end zone. How long will it take you to get the 30 yards closer then you are now? Keep in mind the Giants didn’t have a single play gain more than 15 yards all night.

I want to see more examples of this in 2024 to see what other teams do. But the Bengals got the win here as expected, even if the 17-7 outcome was nothing like anyone expected.

Lions at Cowboys: Someone Take Jerry to the Glory Hole for a Better Birthday

I really liked Detroit in this one after what happened last season with the illegal formation penalty in a 20-19 game won by Dallas. But I never expected 47-9 with the Cowboys simply getting destroyed at home on both sides of the ball. The defense getting annihilated without Micah Parsons against that Detroit attack? Sure, that part makes sense.

But the offense couldn’t find the end zone once in 11 drives? Really? Dak Prescott didn’t even throw for 200 yards as they benched him with the game out of hand. The Cowboys finished with 5 turnovers in an embarrassing loss, the worst home loss of Jerry Jones’ career and on his 82nd birthday.

But despite the big win, the Lions suffered a big loss on the day. Aidan Hutchinson was dominating this season and a favorite for Defensive Player of the Year. But on a play where he sacked Prescott in the third quarter, Hutchinson broke his tibia in one of the most gruesome injuries I’ve ever seen in an NFL game.

That’s a terrible break for Detroit as you need that kind of edge rusher for a Super Bowl season. It can’t be all offense every week, but right now, the Lions are clicking on that side of the ball. They were clicking everywhere in Dallas on Sunday.

Cardinals at Packers: Complete Effort

When I picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl or at least get there from the NFC this season, this is the kind of performance I pictured of them at their best. Jordan Love spreading the ball to his weapons with defenses not knowing who to key in against. He threw 4 touchdowns to three different receivers in this one and he didn’t take a sack. The running game was also dominant, and something I didn’t quite expect, but the defense has been stellar at forcing splash plays all year. They had 3 more takeaways in this 34-13 rout.

The Cardinals are frustrating, man. They come up just short of beating Buffalo, they came back to beat the 49ers last week, but they’ve also stunk offensively against the Lions, Commanders, and now Packers. It didn’t help that Marvin Harrison Jr. was injured before he could make a catch in this game but come on. They have enough talent to score more than 13 points.

I’d still like to see a turnover-free game from Love, but 34 points will absolve him here. Now let’s start stacking wins like last year.

Jaguars vs. Bears: Caleb Williams’ Critics Are Getting Quiet Quickly

Just like how you don’t trash Caitlin Clark after 5 games, you don’t dismiss the No. 1 overall pick after a couple of games in the NFL. You can take shots at the competition, but the Bears are scoring points during this 3-game winning streak. They’ve had back-to-back games with at least 35 points.

Williams faced the London Jaguars on their turf, and he threw 4 touchdown passes, completely taking control of the offense in a 35-16 win. Even the 3 sacks he took only lost 5 yards in this game as he completed 23-of-29 passes for 226 yards. Picking apart a bad defense is what you hope to see from a rookie, and Williams delivered with Cole Kmet and Keenan Allen both catching a pair of touchdowns. D.J. Moore (20 yards) didn’t even have to do much this week, which speaks to Williams’ ability to spread the ball around and make things happen.

All of a sudden, I don’t hear the Justin Fields truthers complaining that he’s gone. I don’t see the people burying the Bears for this pick or poking fun at the thought of Williams having the best supporting cast for a rookie QB drafted No. 1 overall.

We’ll see what happens in these division games as the NFC North is incredible to start this season. But Williams is an impressive rookie and Chicago fans can be excited again. As for the Jaguars, they’re reportedly staying in London for the New England game next Sunday. If they lose that one too, I’m thinking Doug Pederson gets the axe a la Robert Saleh.

Texans at Patriots: Drake Maye Era Begins

Can we stop pretending like Drake Maye would have died if he started a game in September for the Patriots? He faced the best pass rush in Houston, took 4 sacks, but still threw 3 touchdowns (Jacoby Brissett had 2 all season), threw for 243 yards, and he led the team with 38 rushing yards as they couldn’t provide him with a running game.

Were their mistakes? Sure, he had 3 turnovers, but what did you expect? Houston was marching early for touchdowns and he was chasing. But there were positive moments and fans should feel optimistic given how ugly some of those Week 1 rookie starts were this year.

It’s also amusing to me that in one Drake Maye start, the Patriots allowed 41 points on defense. Tom Brady only had one game his entire career where they allowed more points than that. Go figure.

But Houston is one of the best teams he could have faced this year. Better days will be ahead. Try to focus on the positives in the 41-21 loss. At the same time, Houston finally won a game by more than 6 points this year, so good for them too. Joe Mixon has been stellar in his two full games for this offense, which didn’t miss Nico Collins at all for this matchup.

Browns at Eagles: Philly Has No Aura

I’m always talking about the quick turnarounds in the NFC and how that conference loves to produce a new flash in the pan each year. The Eagles are a great example of this. They had a great season in 2022 when they reached the Super Bowl, then they were 10-1 last year even if they were very fortunate to win several of those games, which foreshadowed their collapse.

But this team has no aura anymore. Even with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith returning for this game, which was critical as they won it for Jalen Hurts with the running game stuffed, the Eagles still struggled at home to score 20 points. They were in a dogfight with Deshaun Watson, who took 5 more sacks and sucked on 3rd down again.

This was a 13-13 game in the fourth quarter before Smith took a short pass and turned it into a 45-yard game-winning touchdown with half a quarter left. The Browns had their chances in the fourth quarter but settled for a field goal both times. The last one made it 20-16 with 3:54 left.

The Eagles were able to bleed the clock on offense with Brown making a 40-yard catch to ice it. Brown and Smith had 3-of-4 plays that gained over 20 yards for the Eagles in this game.

If they were playing a better quarterback than Watson, which would be about anyone in 2024, things may have gone worse in this one. The Eagles are 3-2, and that’s only good enough for No. 9 in the NFC at the moment.

They’ll have to play much better than this to leapfrog some of these teams, but the division is still their clearest path to the playoffs. But I’ll be curious to see how this defense handles Jayden Daniels and the Commanders twice.

Steelers at Raiders: Guess Oakland Had the Voodoo That Vegas Doesn’t

I’m so used to the Steelers going on the road to lose to the Raiders, but maybe Las Vegas doesn’t hold the same voodoo for them that the Oakland Coliseum had. The Steelers won in Vegas last year, the only game where Kenny Pickett threw two touchdown passes. The Steelers won there again this time with Najee Harris finally ending his touchdown drought with a great effort on a 36-yard run.

But there weren’t many offensive highlights outside of that. After falling behind 7-6, the Steelers lived on short fields the rest of the way, which has a lot to do with the 32 points. Justin Fields struggled to sustain offense, but it’s hard not to put up decent points when you’re starting two drives inside the opponent’s 10 and another two drives inside the 36. The Raiders also had some crucial roughing penalties to take away a Fields’ pick and a 3rd-down stop that extended another scoring drive.

Russell Wilson was active for the first time all season but remained a backup. I guess the win won’t change a thing for Tomlin’s choice at quarterback, but I still think this team is screwed when Fields has to outscore the better teams. Fortunately, this was Aidan O’Connell trying his best without Davante Adams or Jakobi Meyers available.

T.J. Watt is also the likely favorite for Defensive Player of the Year after the Aidan Hutchinson injury. He forced two fumbles in this one. Just one of the best players ever at knocking the ball out.

Chargers at Broncos: Healthy Justin Herbert Returns

The intrigue at the start of this one was when coach Jim Harbaugh momentarily left the game for what was an arrhythmia situation. Thankfully, he was able to return. Thankfully, the Chargers didn’t blow a 23-0 lead in the fourth quarter, though they tried their best.

But a healthy Justin Herbert made a big difference as he threw for more yards by halftime than he had in any full game this season after having the bye week to heal up. The Broncos’ defense had been playing very well, but Herbert had no problems early, and it didn’t hurt that Patrick Surtain left with an injury.

But you would like to see the Chargers close things out better than this after giving up the last 16 points in the last 11 minutes. Fortunately, the Broncos didn’t recover the onside kick after getting a second crack at it.

Buccaneers at Saints: Baker’s 50 Burger

What a nutty, frustrating game. One of my core plays this week was Chris Olave going over 5.5 yards in the first quarter after rookie Spencer Rattler talked about getting him the ball after a quiet game against the Chiefs. He was facing the Tampa defense that gave up over 500 yards to Kirk Cousins last week. It made too much sense.

Of course, Rattler fires a pass to Olave in trouble on the third snap of the opening drive, he takes a huge helmet-to-helmet shot, fumbles the ball for a (questionable) touchdown by the defense, and the play only gained 5 yards. He missed the rest of the game for the concussion, something that has plagued his career.

That’s the kind of shit that will make you quit gambling. He just had to lead him into a huge hit like that. Then before you know it, the Saints are down 17-0 and everything looks so bleak. But not even 11 minutes later, they were leading 20-17 thanks to some Baker Mayfield turnovers and a punt return touchdown by Rashid Shaheed. Before you know it, the Saints put up 27 points in the second quarter with Rattler looking like a cheap imitation of Patrick Mahomes.

But the Saints never scored again. In fact, this is the first time since a Mahomes game against the 2019 Raiders where a team scored this many points (28 in that case) in the second quarter and none in any other quarter. That game actually was scoreless by both teams after halftime.

Not the case here. Even though Mayfield threw 3 interceptions, he had this offense moving all day to the tune of 594 yards. He also threw for 325 yards and 4 touchdowns with Chris Godwin (11/125/2) posting a huge line. Without Rachaad White, the Buccaneers rushed for 277 yards and eventually put up 51 points.

This was still a 31-27 game with a quarter left, but Rattler threw a bad pick immediately to start the fourth quarter. That’s when the avalanches really started as Tampa won 51-27. But it was a very weird game script.

Colts at Titans: Flacco Delivers in Surprise Start

I’m sure Shane Steichen gets the sense that his offense is better with Joe Flacco than it is Anthony Richardson, especially when Jonathan Taylor is inactive. Richardson was supposed to start, but Flacco got the call in the end. It was just that kind of week for the Colts as No. 1 wide receiver Michael Pittman was supposed to go on injured reserve for his bad back, but he ended up playing and had a huge impact.

Pittman came down with a 10-yard game-winning touchdown with 7:27 left. Pittman also made a 16-yard grab at the two-minute warning that allowed the Colts to run most of the clock with a 20-17 lead. The Titans only had time left for the lateral play to end it.

But the Titans had the ball multiple times in the fourth quarter, only needing a field goal to tie. Will Levis threw a pick with 4:52 left, then they decided to punt on a 4th-and-7 at their own 25 with 2:26 left. They had three clock stoppages left, but it was probably the wrong decision in a 20-17 game. They only had 12 seconds when they got the ball back to work with.

Of course, having Will Levis as your quarterback probably means you’re screwed even if the game was another 30 minutes. Levis finished 16-of-27 for 95 yards against what has been one of the worst defenses this year. He was 0-for-8 when targeting to Calvin Ridley, who I can tell you I won’t be targeting again in prop picks the rest of the season. He’s made the shitlist.

I really think the Titans need to be close to benching Levis for Mason Rudolph. If you look at their touchdown drives in this game, one was 27 yards after a Flacco pick, and the other was only made possible by Tony Pollard breaking a 23-yard run on 3rd-and-19.

This game also reminded me of just how many flags Flacco draws with his dangerous passes. He had 5 flags drawn in this game for defensive pass interference, defensive holding, illegal contact, or roughing the passer, including a wiped-out pick and several third-down incompletions erased by penalty.

But that’s Flacco. He just keeps slinging it – eight straight games with multiple touchdown passes – even in games where he wasn’t supposed to play.

Falcons at Panthers: Rare Easy Win for Kirk Cousins

In typical Kirk Cousins fashion, the Falcons have been living on the edge all season, having already won three of the most improbable games of the 2024 season. This looked like the last hope for some late-game drama in the late-afternoon window as Cousins and Andy Dalton were trading scoring drives as Atlanta took a 28-20 lead into the fourth quarter.

But in a familiar story for the Panthers for many years now, they folded in the fourth. Dalton was intercepted in scoring territory, and the Falcons cranked up their running game in this one – over 200 yards before Cousins’ kneeldowns – and put together an 84-yard touchdown drive to make it 35-20. A quick four-and-out by Carolina led to another field goal and a 38-20 final. Dalton threw another pick to officially end things.

At 1-5, I expect Carolina to turn things back to Bryce Young. You have to see what more you have there, and maybe he’ll try things differently after this benching. Dalton is what he is, and it’s just not enough to compete this year. Let’s get some assurance that Young sucks and the team needs to shop elsewhere for 2025.

Next week: I see an early writing night on Thursday with Saints-Broncos, but Sean Payton will probably win that one in New Orleans. I’m sleeping in even longer for Patriots-Jaguars than I did for Bears-Jaguars in London. But the NFL actually delivers with the rest of the Week 7 schedule, including Packers-Texans, Lions-Vikings, and Chiefs-49ers. Not fond of Jets-Steelers on SNF, but Ravens-Buccaneers is coming at a great time on a MNF doubleheader with the less important Chargers-Cardinals. Don’t think we’ll have two undefeated teams left after this Sunday.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 5

Week 5 was a step in the right direction for this 2024 NFL season. More scoring and more lead changes – that’s all I really want in the end. We had a few Game of the Year candidates, and the best of them all was probably played Thursday night in Atlanta against Tampa Bay.

But Ravens-Bengals exceeded the hype, Bills-Texans was oddly exciting, the Cardinals shocked the 49ers, and the Cowboys basically shot themselves in the foot all night before putting the dagger in Pittsburgh.

We had seven game-winning drives this week, the most since Week 1 of the 2023 season, and that’s pretty good with four teams on a bye and one game left Monday night that could easily add to this.

Overall, 10-of-13 games had a comeback opportunity, so it was a lot of close action, and the games that weren’t close were basically shit you weren’t going to care about anyway.

But I sure did get a lot of use out of “Same Old” headlines this week as a lot of these games did maintain the status quo for certain teams and players.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Ravens at Bengals: Same Old Bungles (As the AFC North Turns)

Joe Burrow said he’d have to be perfect to win this game, and he was pretty accurate about that. It proved to be one of the biggest shootouts and best games in AFC North history as the Ravens came back to win 41-38 in overtime after some stunning twists and turns down the stretch.

The tide turned in the first half after Derrick Henry was tackled for a safety, then Burrow found Ja’Marr Chase for a 41-yard touchdown to end the first half. From there, it was Baltimore chasing the whole second half.

But Lamar Jackson was game in one of the best passing performances of his career. He threw for 348 yards and 4 touchdowns. Burrow also had one of his best games with 392 yards and 5 touchdown passes as Chase had a monster game with 193 yards.

When Chase took a short pass 70 yards for a touchdown with 8:54 left to give the Bengals a 38-28 lead, it sure didn’t feel like Baltimore’s day. Jackson hadn’t led a game-winning drive in a game where Baltimore allowed more than 17 points since November 2021.

But Jackson led a touchdown drive that culminated in one of the greatest plays of his career:

Up 38-35, the Bengals had a chance to either ice the game with a first down, or they could have added a field goal to take a 6-point lead (as dreaded as that sounds). But Burrow made his only big mistake when he threw a bad interception with 3:01 left.

Baltimore’s drive stalled, but Justin Tucker had the offense’s back with a 56-yard field goal to tie it. Here we were again with Burrow having a chance for a legacy drive with 1:35 left in a tied game, but he immediately took a sack that derailed things. The Bengals went three-and-out and the game went to overtime.

Something had to give here with Jackson not leading any game-winning drive since the 2022 season, and Burrow having his own problems with a lack of a killer instinct.

The Ravens got the ball first, and sure enough, Jackson took his eye off the ball and fumbled the snap in field goal range. The Bengals returned it to the Baltimore 38, setting themselves up to win the game on a field goal. But as we’ve seen before with this team and Zac Taylor, they were content with just running the ball and setting up a very long field goal, which is usually a bad idea unless you have Tucker as your kicker.

After gaining just 3 yards, the Bengals attempted a 53-yard field goal, and a bad hold looked responsible for throwing off the kick as Evan McPherson was wide left. On the very next snap, Henry made up for his quiet game with a 51-yard run down to the Cincinnati 6. Without risking another fumbled snap or screw-up, the Ravens did the right thing and immediately kicked the 24-yard field goal with Tucker to win the game 41-38. You know he delivered.

Just like that, the Ravens went from falling into the 2-3 muck with the Bengals in the AFC North race to back on top after the Steelers lost on Sunday night to also fall to 3-2.

I would say the Bengals are finished at 1-4, but the AFC is not good enough right now to rule them out for a wild card berth. But the division title may be a pipe dream now. That Cincinnati defense is just rotten this year, and while the Ravens have their own issues, a healthy dose of Jackson and Henry is going to be tough to deal with.

I don’t know if I could say in good faith that the Ravens are the best team in the NFL after they should have lost this game. But they continue to be a tough out and unique challenge for everyone.

Cowboys at Steelers: Same Old Steelers

I feel like I’m in some Twilight Zone where people keep giving Justin Fields credit for an “almost comeback” last week as if we didn’t see that several times in Chicago from him. I also don’t get the celebration of the Steelers playing another sloppy grind of a game like they always do as if that’s a good thing. It’s why this team is always flirting with .500 and never winning playoff games anymore. This is not good football when you trial 6-3 at halftime because you’re playing scared, chickenshit offense and your defense is living for splash plays because you give up so many yards otherwise.

Stick a competent quarterback against this defense and it’s going to struggle. Dak Prescott finally pulled his head out of his ass on the final drive to deliver a dagger with 20 seconds left to Jalen Tolbert for the win on a long-developing play:

Great, patient throw. The Cowboys were staring down a 17-13 deficit, a minus-3 mark in the turnover department, and they had a field goal blocked. It’s really hard to win on the road when you face those circumstances, but they pulled it out. They also deserved the win as they outgained the Steelers 445-226. They just shot themselves in the foot more.

I still think the Steelers should start Russell Wilson as soon as he’s cleared. He’ll do more than complete four passes in the first half as it still looks like they’re not fully trusting Fields. Hence doing things like running the ball on 3rd-and-8 while trailing 3-0. That’s not normal for NFL offenses.

Wilson will also give them a bigger edge in close games, something this team can’t seem to escape.

Bills at Texans: Same Old 2019 Josh Allen?

Josh Allen was back in the building where he played his first playoff game in the 2019 AFC Wild Card against the Texans. He lost that one in overtime, a game I remember best for his wild lateral attempt at midfield that he didn’t need to do. But he was a loose cannon back then and not nearly as good as he’d become starting in 2020 when the team acquired wide receiver Stefon Diggs.

Well, Diggs and Allen were back together on Sunday, but this time they were rivals after the April trade that sent Diggs to Houston. It couldn’t have come at a better time too as Nico Collins left this game injured after smoking the defense for a 67-yard touchdown catch. Diggs had to step up in his absence, and he finished with 6 catches for 82 yards.

Meanwhile, Allen finished 9-of-30 for 131 yards, an unfathomable stat line for any quarterback in 2024, let alone Allen. I saw some drops but I don’t know what the actual number was. But Allen certainly looked scattershot and not that confident with the group around him, which didn’t include Khalil Shakir after his injury last week.

It truly was a game where the Bills lacked receivers in Diggs’ absence, and the Texans were aided by the Diggs trade to make up for losing Collins. How fitting.

But while C.J. Stroud had a strong start to this game when it was 20-3 Houston, looking like he deserved to jump Allen in the MVP odds, he did not finish this game like an MVP. Stroud got into turnover problems with a pick in Buffalo territory, a strip-sack that set up the game-tying field goal for Buffalo, and then he got called for an intentional grounding penalty that knocked the Texans out of field goal range in the final minute. Just one mistake after another.

But the biggest story was when Allen’s head clearly hit the ground on a bad play, and he looked like he may have gone to sleep for a few seconds. Everyone was thinking concussion, but somehow, Allen was cleared and only missed one snap. It makes you wonder just how thorough that test was and if he didn’t use his star status to stay in the game. That one didn’t pass the sniff test for me.

Upon returning, Allen sure played as if he had a brain injury. Coach Sean McDermott is taking the blame, but Buffalo’s approach to the final drive in a 20-20 game was mind boggling. They had 1st-and-10 at their own 3 with 32 seconds left, so that’s not an enviable position. You are afraid to run since you might get a safety if you give it that deep to a back, and Houston also had 3 timeouts.

It was realistic that the Bills could run the ball 3 times, the Texans call their timeouts, and you still risk a punt with seconds left with Houston having a shot to do something. On that level, I can understand coming out trying to throw. But you still have to call good plays and make smart throws that will likely be completed and run clock to make the Texans burn those timeouts.

Allen was throwing dangerous passes that could have been picked off, and even if they were complete, the gain wasn’t worth it as the Bills were out of timeouts and would have had a hard time getting into range.

It was just absolutely bizarre as Allen threw three straight incompletions and the Bills punted on a drive that took 25 seconds, gained no yards, and allowed the Texans to keep all their timeouts. Just poor situational awareness.

Stroud completed a 5-yard pass, the receiver went down, and the Texans called timeout with 2 seconds left. Guess what? If they used their 3 timeouts to get the ball back from Buffalo, they wouldn’t have had that option there. They would have needed to get out of bounds, which is harder to do. That’s why the 3 incompletions were such a fvck-up.

Fairbairn was able to connect from 59 yards on the best kick of his career to win 23-20. It wasn’t pretty at all, but have you seen the way the Chiefs are winning? Did you see how Baltimore got past Dallas and Cincy? This will do as the early portion of the game at least showed the Texans could take it to Buffalo, a potential playoff foe down the road.

There should definitely be some concerns with that Buffalo offense. Forget the Chiefs and Jets. The Bills should be in those wide receiver trade markets as I don’t think they have enough here to beat the top AFC teams this year.

Cardinals at 49ers: Same Old Shanahan

It’s hard to identify any real trends in what goes into Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers blowing a game they should have won. All I know is that it happens frequently enough, and that’s why I hated the graphic FOX tried pushing in the fourth quarter of this game that said Shanahan’s team was 38-0 when entering the fourth quarter with a 10+ point lead. The 49ers were up 23-10 at halftime and 23-13 going into the fourth quarter of this one.

First, I hate graphics like this because they lead to people drawing the false conclusion that he’s never lost a game with a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. This is just the score at the start of the quarter. Isn’t it more relevant what the score was even later in the game?

That’s what I hate about “entering the fourth quarter” stats as the score with 15:00 left isn’t as important as say 7:00 left. Just two weeks ago, the 49ers were up 10 points against the Rams with less than half the quarter to play, and they found a way to lose that one.

Also, this ignores the playoffs where he know Shanahan lost Super Bowl LIX to the Chiefs after leading 20-10 to enter the 4th, and he lost the 2021 NFC Championship Game to the Rams after leading 17-7 to enter the 4th. Those were losses too, among the biggest in his career.

With that said, this one still shocked me as the Cardinals seemed snakebitten. They had a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. But things took a turn in the second half when the 49ers had to play without kicker Jake Moody. I still think he’s a liability, but he’s better than not having a kicker. That injury led to the 49ers going for a 4th-and-23 instead of adding a 45-yard field goal to their lead.

Even if the 49ers got into field-goal range on the last drive, I’m not sure they would have been able to capitalize given the injured kicker situation. But I also don’t like that Brock Purdy is going to get the brunt of the blame for another loss that’s dropped this team to 2-3.

Yes, he didn’t play his best game, but he had a tipped pick, he had the misfortune of the kicker situation, and running back Jordan Mason really screwed them with a bad fumble on first down in the red zone with just over 6:00 left in a 23-21 game. Not to mention the reason the Cardinals were down 23-21 instead of 23-20 was a roughing the passer penalty on the defense, so the Cardinals took the 2-point conversion from the 1-yard line, a smart move.

The Cardinals took the Mason fumble and drove for the go-ahead field goal to make it 24-23 with 1:37 left. Again, I’m not sure the 49ers would have been able to settle for a field goal on the drive unless it was super short.

But after one completion, Purdy was hit in motion as he threw, the ball fluttered, and it was intercepted to end the game. That’s just how it goes sometimes, but the 49ers again found themselves in a position they shouldn’t have been in.

This happens a bit too often for Shanahan’s team. The only good news is Seattle lost too as a big favorite at home. They’ll meet each other this Thursday night in Seattle.

Jets vs. Vikings: Same Old Rodgers (And Same Old Darnold?)

If you’re Davante Adams, do you even want to go back to the Jets when they look like this with Aaron Rodgers? He threw two picks in the first quarter, a new thing for him, and that includes a pick-six that helped the Vikings take a 17-0 lead. Minnesota has not trailed in a game since the first quarter of Week 1 against the Giants.

But before you thought this would be a blowout, keep in mind Sam Darnold had the worst game of his 2024 season and brief time with Minnesota. He was picked in the fourth quarter too, and the offense missed Aaron Jones after an injury knocked him out. They only scored 16 points on offense this week with Darnold not throwing any touchdowns.

Rodgers chipped away at that defense, but he ended up throwing for 244 yards on 54 attempts, including 101 yards on 22 targets to Garrett Wilson. That’s not very efficient at all. I don’t think the weapons are that bad for Rodgers in this offense, but he just doesn’t seem to have built good chemistry with anyone yet.

Down 23-17 late, it looked like Rodgers might actually pull off the comeback. But while he usually takes interception avoidance to another level in these moments, this time he threw a pass to Mike Williams down the sideline that veteran Stephon Gilmore picked off with 44 seconds left to help the Vikings to 5-0 and drop the Jets to 2-3.

Rodgers took a beating in this game and it’s hard to see him lasting a full season at this rate. I’m not sure adding Adams is the cure-all for this offense, but it is the side of the team that is holding them back. The defense did a good job of limiting the Vikings and keeping this game within reach.

As for the Vikings, they get an early bye and have a huge game with Detroit at home in Week 7. They’ll hope the real Sam Darnold doesn’t come back when they do, because Sunday was not as encouraging as the first four games for him.

Packers at Rams: Same Old West Coast Stafford?

Matthew Stafford always had some Philip Rivers-type gunslinger qualities in him. He was better in crunch time than Rivers, but with Rivers retired, we needed someone to fill the void of a quarterback always stuck in a one-score game in the late window. Sure, Justin Herbert does a good job of that with the Chargers, but he’s been hurt lately.

It falls on Stafford, who once again found himself with the ball late in a 24-19 game against Green Bay thanks to some horrific decisions by Jordan Love, who turned a safety into a pick-six. Will Levis didn’t play this weekend, but his spirit was kept alive by Love here:

But the Packers also picked Stafford with Xavier McKinney adding to his great start to the season. Still, it was only a 24-19 game late and it came down to another last-gasp effort by Stafford. He was unable to convert a 4th-and-5 this time with 1:02 left, and that was the ballgame.

The Packers are actually getting more consistent play from their defense than their offense right now, but if Love can ever get on track this year, they have a chance to go far.

Browns at Commanders: Same Old Sack Merchant

The Washington Commanders had their least efficient game on offense this season, punting 4 times and turning it over twice. Jayden Daniels completed 56% of his passes instead of the 82% he was at.

And still it was good enough to win 34-13 over a Cleveland team that is playing a lot of bad football right now. But for all the problems Cleveland has, nothing is worse than the way Deshaun Watson plays quarterback. He took 7 more sacks as he is just a magnet for defenders even in ways we didn’t see in Houston.

Watson’s QBR is down to 21.0 this season. In any other situation, he’d have been benched already, but coach Kevin Stefanski insists he’s still the QB1 in Cleveland. Keep this up and you’ll be unemployed while he’s still there fleecing the organization, Kevin.

Daniels in Washington just goes to show how quickly you can turn things around in this league with the right pick at quarterback. The Texans did it a couple years after Watson left with C.J. Stroud too. Cleveland never seems to find that guy, but the answer sure as hell isn’t keeping Watson as the starter.

Colts at Jaguars: Same Old Indy in Jacksonville

Something had to give here:

  • The Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014, losing eight straight trips there (plus one in London against Blake Bortles).
  • The Jaguars had lost 9 straight games started by quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the quarterback who practically can’t win a game if he doesn’t complete better than 60% of his passes.

Well, it was a wild path to a 37-34 win with Joe Flacco putting the fear of God in Jacksonville fans with some classic deep ball prayers that were answered by Alec Pierce. The Colts just didn’t want to die in this game despite trailing 20-10, 27-17, 34-20 in the fourth quarter alone.

Flacco’s 65-yard touchdown to Pierce tied the game at 34 with 2:40 left. But Lawrence finally had one of those sharp, efficient games as he threw for a career-high 371 yards on his 25th birthday. He completed 28-of-34 passes too, and it looks like the Jags have a stud in rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr., who had 122 yards and another big touchdown. Tank Bigsby also showed off some big-play ability at running back, so Travis Etienne may be taking a backseat in this offense.

But game on the line, Lawrence did a good job of moving into field-goal range. Certainly better than you saw from C.J. Stroud, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow in the same window on Sunday.

The Jaguars made a 49-yard field goal with 17 seconds left, and that was good enough to hang on for the 37-34 win, the team’s first win of 2024. But it actually may be a more troubling game for the Colts as someone is going to have to ask coach Shane Steichen why his offense does better with Gardner Minshew and Flacco at quarterback than it does the injury-prone Anthony Richardson. That’s troubling.

Giants at Seahawks: Same Old Pete Carroll Type of Loss?

We’ve seen the Seahawks lose at home to a bad Giants team before. I remember the 2020 loss when they were an 11-point favorite. But I really didn’t think it would happen this time without Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary available.

But the Giants marched up and down the field with Darius Slayton crapping out a 122-yard game, and the running back Tracy (Dick?) rushed for 129 yards. Embarrassing stuff. This game shouldn’t even have been this close as the Seahawks only got on the board early with a fortunate fumble at the goal line that was scooped up for a 102-yard return. If that was ruled a New York touchdown on the field, it probably would have stood as it was that close.

Can someone tell me exactly who was out on the defense for Seattle to have such miserable results after allowing the Lions to complete 100% of their passes last week? I know rookie Byron Murphy was out again, and I know rusher Boye Mafe missed his second-straight game. But who else is going to make that much of a difference after the Seahawks played very good defense in Weeks 1-3?

The Seahawks must have been so scared of their defense that they went for a 4th-and-1 at their own 35 while trailing 20-13 with nearly a whole quarter left. I don’t like that call as the offense wasn’t playing nearly well enough to think they’d march the 65+ yards for a touchdown even if they converted. Fail there and you’re almost guaranteed to go down two scores, which they did. Worse, Geno Smith took a sack and gave up 7 more yards in field position. He had great scrambles (72 rushing yards) in this game, but his passing was not up to snuff.

But despite all the struggles, the Seahawks were in position to win this game, or at least force overtime. Down 23-20, Geno’s 32-yard scramble put them in field goal range, but they didn’t get much closer than that. The 47-yard field goal was emphatically blocked with 0:55 left for a touchdown return, and that’s your ballgame, a rough 29-20 loss for Seattle.

The only good news is the 49ers blew their game against Arizona, setting up an awkward battle this Thursday night in the NFC West.

Panthers at Bears: NOT the Same Old Chicago Offense?

There’s not much complaining now about Caleb Williams after three games that have been much more promising after that rough start. Such is the life of a rookie quarterback in this league. Williams finished with 304 yards and 2 touchdown passes in this one, and he almost had a highlight-worthy touchdown run that was taken away by penalty.

But this is more along the lines of what we thought when writing this offseason that the Bears were putting the best situation around Williams among all No. 1 picks. The defense was again very good as Andy Dalton was eventually benched for Bryce Young in the 36-10 loss. D.J. Moore had a huge game with 105 yards and 2 touchdowns. Williams only took 1 sack against 29 passes thrown.

The Bears are 3-2 and things are moving in the right direction. But it will get harder once they start playing these NFC North games. It looks like the best division this year as none of the teams are objectively bad.

Raiders at Broncos: NOT the Same Old Raiders vs. Denver in the 2020s

Did you know the Raiders were 8-0 against Denver since moving to Vegas in 2020? Well, that streak is no more as Sean Payton helped end another one for his Broncos in the AFC West. They ended their 16-game losing streak to the Chiefs last season.

This one didn’t start well with a 10-0 deficit as rookie tight end Brock Bowers produced a big play for his first touchdown. But Gardner Minshew made some ghastly interceptions that I thought would get him benched this week, but Antonio Pierce wasted no time and pulled him in this game for Aidan O’Connell. But that predictably didn’t help, and it appears Bo Nix is decent every other week as he had another solid game in this one after last week’s embarrassment (despite the win) in the rain.

Denver went on a 34-0 scoring run to win 34-18. It was a lot of scoring on short fields, almost like they did in 2023, so I wouldn’t get too excited yet. But that is three straight wins for Denver, and they finally ended that losing streak to their rivals from Las Vegas.

But the coolest thing in this game? Those throwback uniforms for Denver:

Dolphins at Patriots: Same Old Offensive Woes in New England

These teams predictably struggled to score in a 15-10 game between the NFL’s worst scoring offenses. But the Patriots had a 10-9 lead in the fourth quarter. They picked a bad time to throw the ball on consecutive attempts on the outskirts of field-goal range, and that allowed the Dolphins to get the ball back in a 10-9 game and drive for a long touchdown march after discovering the running game worked in New England.

Down 15-10, Jacoby Brissett looked like he had a go-ahead touchdown to rookie Ja’Lynn Polk, but he didn’t come down with the completion on a missed opportunity. The Pats turned it over on downs, then rushed a throw to the Miami 11 as time expired on their latest loss.

You can get Tua Tagovailoa back or start Drake Maye, but neither team appears to be going anywhere this season.

Next week: We’ll see what the Chiefs do Monday night, but it’s possible both 5-0 teams (KC and Vikings) are on a bye in Week 6. Thursday night’s 49ers-Seahawks game takes a weird turn after both teams lost as touchdown favorites at home on Sunday. No chance I’m getting up early for Jags-Bears on Sunday. Commanders-Ravens in the early afternoon slot sounds great. Lions-Cowboys headlines the late window, then we get Bengals-Giants on SNF. Who possibly could have thought that was a good idea? Then it’s Bills-Jets on MNF, which very similar to TNF, it’s a first-place battle between teams that are disappointing us so far. But sure, sign me up for Jayden Daniels against this vulnerable Baltimore defense.

NFL 2024 Week 5 Predictions: Revenge Week Edition

Is the passing game back in the NFL? The last two games have seen the Lions complete 100% of their passes and we were treated to Thursday night’s spectacle where Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards in a win over Tampa Bay. I can only hope this leads to better results this weekend since there are some quality games in Jets-Vikings, Bills-Texans, Ravens-Bengals, Cowboys-Steelers, and Saints-Chiefs.

But there are some revenge-themed games here too with Stefon Diggs taking on the Bills for the first time since the trade, and Sam Darnold already beat the Jets with Carolina in 2021, but he’ll get his crack at them in the first London game of the season with the 4-0 Vikings. Steelers-Cowboys is also a classic rivalry from the 70s with flagship franchises, and that Ravens-Bengals game should be a good one with both teams knowing how important it is after their slow starts.

This Week’s Articles

NFL 2024 Week 5 Predictions

The Falcons really had no business winning that game, but that’s the third time this season I can say that about that team.

I wanted to pick more underdogs this week but found it difficult. Sure, I can see some wild things happening like the Jets spanking the Vikings, the Bengals staying alive against Baltimore, Washington getting exposed defensively and a learning curve experience for Jayden Daniels.

Jets-Vikings: I am starting to believe in this Minnesota team as it’s the only team that hasn’t played a game with a 4QC attempt yet. Maybe that changes here, but when an old Aaron Rodgers is on the other side, I feel okay with trusting Minnesota to go to 5-0.

Ravens-Bengals: When Lamar Jackson is healthy, he usually beats the Bengals. Period. They’ve looked great with Derrick Henry running over everyone the last two weeks, but the Bengals have also perked up offensively. It should be a good game and I’m going Baltimore again.

Panthers-Bears: Are we trusting Chicago again? I think it’s a tight game and I’m on the Diontae Johnson props again.

Dolphins-Patriots: I’d pick Miami in Miami but give me the Patriots at home. Tyler Huntley should be better than Monday night, but that team is a mess right now and injuries are piling up too.

Bills-Texans: Big one here. I had the Texans winning it in my preseason picks and I’m sticking to it. I think C.J. Stroud uses all of his weapons and throws for over 300 yards in a close win.

Colts-Jaguars: It looks like Joe Flacco at QB, but there’s no Jonathan Taylor, and the Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014. It’s time to end the losing streak, and by that I mean Trevor Lawrence losing 9 straight starts. Something has to give here and I’m giving the Jags a win or else they’ll be ready to fire Doug Pederson by the end of the month.

Browns-Commanders: My Commanders look to go 4-1 and I hope they do for obvious reasons. But I do like an Amari Cooper TD to continue the trend of No. 1 WRs abusing that secondary. It’d also raise his draft stock.

Cardinals-49ers: Four straight blowouts of Arizona by the 49ers, and I think that continues here.

Raiders-Broncos: Speaking of revenge, do you know the Raiders are 8-0 against Denver since 2020? I think the streak continues here as Maxx Crosby returns to the defense, and I just don’t trust Bo Nix yet.

Packers-Rams: LaFleur gets the best of McVay again and hopefully Josh Jacobs finally finds the end zone.

Giants-Seahawks: An upset wouldn’t shock me with Seattle’s injured defense, but they need Malik Nabers for that. Seattle bounces back at home.

Cowboys-Steelers: I would pick the Cowboys if they had their pass rushers (or just Parsons), or if I trusted the offense beyond CeeDee. But I think the Steelers squeak out a 23-20 win. Just remember Justin Fields is 0-22 when the opponent scores 21+ points. But if you have Mike McCarthy in a close game, we know how that usually goes.

Saints-Chiefs: Screw it, give me the upset in the first game without Rashee Rice. The Saints in a 4QC win to end the KC winning streak.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 3

I don’t think I’m going to like this season very much. You know there are some shenanigans going on when the first 3-0 teams were the Steelers, Vikings, and Seahawks. None of those teams were favored to even make the playoffs this year.

The Chiefs got there too on Sunday night, but after winning their eighth one-score game during this 9-game winning streak, it doesn’t look like this will be anywhere close to the strongest Kansas City team yet. Might even be the complete opposite.

There are six teams who were in the playoffs last year, including both No. 1 seeds, that are sitting at 1-2: Dolphins, Ravens, Browns, Cowboys, Rams, and 49ers.

Big favorites continue to go down at alarming rates. On Sunday, the four teams who were favored by 6.5 points were 0-4 SU (Buccaneers, Browns, 49ers, and Raiders). There were 18 such losses all of last season and 14 in 2022. We’re already up to seven this season.

Things are just crazy right now, injuries are piling up for many teams, and it’s not like blown leads/comebacks are largely responsible for these results. There were only six games with a comeback opportunity in Week 3, and only two games had a fourth-quarter lead change.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

49ers at Rams: Game of the Week

I thought the Eagles had the worst blown lead in the fourth quarter by a team this season after what they did in each phase against the Falcons on Monday night. But the 49ers may have found a way to outdo it here.

First, Brock Purdy was fantastic in this game. He finished 22-of-30 for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns (all to Jauan Jennings), but that doesn’t account for 6 drops. Ronnie Bell should take a permanent seat on the bench with his Limas Sweed ass hands. Purdy even ran 10 times and looked as mobile as ever as he tried to get the job done for his offense in a game without Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel. His only real mistake was a strip-sack before halftime, but that was right after Trent Williams momentarily left the game with an injury, and it didn’t lead to any points for the Rams.

The short-yardage running game hurt them in the fourth quarter when Jordan Mason couldn’t convert a 3rd-and-short, causing the 49ers to settle for a field goal and 24-14 lead. Later, a holding penalty ruined a drive, but Jake Moody could have made a 55-yard field goal with 2:43 to effectively ice it as a 10-point game, but he missed it. I thought he gained some confidence last year with some big kicks in the playoffs, but this was a big miss in a season where everyone seems to be crushing it from deep.

Then the defense had its letdowns with Matthew Stafford, who didn’t have Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua, using Tutu Atwell for deep balls to quickly get in scoring range. A 50-yard pass to Atwell set up a Kyren Williams touchdown and it was 24-24 with 1:51 left.

Purdy again did his job on the next drive, but Bell had a horrible drop down the field that set up 3rd-and-10. The Rams forced a punt, and the special teams further contributed to the downfall with a 38-yard punt return by the Rams with 42 seconds left.

The 49ers somehow had three defensive penalties on one snap with the pass interference moving the ball halfway to the 25. You can basically run the clock down there, which the Rams did, and they kicked a 37-yard field goal with 0:02 seconds left to take a 27-24 lead. A shocking comeback and total failure by the 49ers in so many ways, and yet somehow still appropriate for what we’ve come to expect from a Kyle Shanahan team.

I must say the 49ers looked like they had something cooking on their lateral play to end things. Definitely one of the better attempts you’ll see at trying to go 70 yards in one play.

A loss would have buried the season for the Rams (1-2). This loss doesn’t bury the 49ers (1-2), but it could haunt them for seeding. Seattle getting off to a 3-0 start isn’t ideal either, but the teams will meet in Seattle on a Thursday night in Week 6 after the 49ers have some winnable home games with the Patriots and Cardinals.

But the 49ers absolutely wasted one of the best games Purdy will give them this year. The loss will cause others to ignore how well he did with all the injuries they had too. Just a rough day all around if you’re a 49ers fan.

Chiefs at Falcons: Old Hat

I think from 2018-22, the Kansas City Chiefs were the main attraction in the NFL. They played the most entertaining style of offense, and they were involved in the biggest and best games of this era. They were a spectacle to watch.

But the 2023-24 Chiefs? I can see why so many people have turned to hating them, and it’s not just sour grapes over losing big games to them. They’ve become annoying to watch in a Spygate-era Patriots way in that it seems like every game is close, they leave a lot of doubt on the field, and they seem like they still find a way to win these games.

It happened again Sunday night in Atlanta, and while the Chiefs (-3) still covered with the 22-17 win, it was the kind of game that will only fuel the doubters who want to see someone else win the Super Bowl this year.

For the third week in a row, Patrick Mahomes threw a braindead interception. This time it was in the end zone on a 17-play opening drive, so the over bettors were already pissed. The only explanation is Justin Simmons just has that Mahomes voodoo that Ty Law once had for Peyton Manning, because he did it to Mahomes again despite changing teams from Denver to Atlanta.

Fortunately, that was the only turnover the Chiefs had in this game as they couldn’t afford another. They even avoided the obligatory fumble for a change, and Mahomes did not take any sacks. I’m not sure what the snap counts were yet, but the Chiefs did start Wanya Morris at left tackle over rookie Kingsley Suamataia, who was benched in the fourth quarter last week.

However, Travis Kelce really is starting to look washed up as he had just 30 yards on 4 catches, and he hurt the team with a third-down drop in the fourth quarter when they tried to add to the small lead. Kelce is seeing more action in his commercials and new FX series than he does on the field these days.

You combine Kelce possibly falling off a cliff with the injuries to Hollywood Brown and running back Isiah Pacheco, and the Chiefs aren’t offering a whole lot on offense outside of Rashee Rice, who continues to look fantastic as the new No. 1 option. He had 12 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown, accounting for half of Mahomes’ 217 yards and the only gain longer than 17 yards for the offense on the night.

But the Chiefs keep trying to spread the wealth, get other people involved, and their short-yardage offense hasn’t been too impressive. For all the hype about their interior line, you’d think they would do a better job of just pounding it in there.

But the back-to-back three-and-out drives in the fourth quarter do look like an offense that just isn’t what it used to be. Kelce would have held onto that ball in the past. On a late 3rd-and-2, Mahomes looked like he had multiple options on crossing routes, but he chose Xavier Worthy, and the rookie just stopped running on the play to cause an ugly incompletion with 2:26 left. I don’t think JuJu would have done that two years ago, and I know Sammy Watkins wouldn’t have back in the day.

The offense kept giving Atlanta chances to answer with a touchdown the way Kirk Cousins delivered Monday night in Philadelphia. But despite getting three chances in the fourth quarter, Cousins couldn’t get the job done as the Falcons dealt with more pressure from Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, and some injured offensive linemen made it tougher as does Cousins’ lack of mobility. There was a 3rd-and-2 “scramble” in the game where any young, mobile quarterback would have picked it up, but that’s just not happening for Cousins at this stage of his career. But that play was a good example of why the stationary pocket passer is such a dying breed in the NFL.

The referees didn’t help Atlanta much either. Yep, the officials were back in the spotlight at the end of a Kansas City game, and it was more appropriate this time compared to last week against the Bengals. Down 22-17 with just over 4:00 left, Cousins tried to find tight end Kyle Pitts in the end zone, and the Chiefs got away with some obvious pass interference. No flag.

He arrived early, he hugged Pitts, and he didn’t try to play the ball. That should have been an easy call to make. Then on fourth down, I don’t think that one was interference, but some of course will say that because it’s the Chiefs and this is the weekly thing we do now. But again, that comes back to never blowing teams out and leaving this type of doubt.

Then when the Falcons got the ball back with 2:26 left, you saw the make-up calls in full effect from the refs. The Falcons got a phantom DPI flag on Trent McDuffie for 11 yards. Then there was a horse collar tackle penalty, which looked legitimate enough, and that was another 15 yards. So, the calls most certainly don’t always go to Kansas City’s benefit.

But that horse collar was the last time the Falcons moved the chains. I think they got caught up playing the clock with Mahomes on the other side, they wanted to score late as possible, and they forgot to call good plays that make use of Cousins’ abilities. They brought in Tyler Allgeier for a big 3rd-and-1 run, and the Chiefs stopped him for no gain. Neither team wanting to run the QB sneak is a problem in this situation.

The Falcons then tried another 4th-and-1 run with Bijan Robinson, but he was stuffed for a 3-yard loss with 51 seconds left. Ballgame. That’s four plays in a row where the Falcons didn’t bother to let Cousins throw anything more than a horizontal pass.

Mahomes then did a smart move on the first down by waiting several seconds before he finally took a knee. The other knees were much quicker, and he nearly injured himself on one, but he timed it just right to where the Chiefs didn’t have to punt the ball back.

The Chiefs have now won 9 straight games by a combined 54 points, an average margin of victory of 6.0 points per game. That’s the tiniest margin of victory among the 119 teams in NFL history who had a winning streak of at least 9 games.

It’s not like this is uncharted territory for the Chiefs. In 2020, they tied the NFL record with 7 straight wins by 1-to-8 points. They also won 10 games in a row that year by an average of just 8.9 points per game. Only the 1999 Colts with Peyton Manning (8.7) had a lower margin of victory for a double-digit game winning streak.

The Chiefs can take that record next if they beat the Chargers next week by a slim margin. That’s usually what they do to that team.

It’s usually what they do to everyone these days. But that run in 2020 with the close wins was answered with some playoff blowouts, including their 31-9 loss in Super Bowl 55. It also led to a 3-4 start in 2021 during some of the worst losses of the Mahomes era like 38-20 to Buffalo and 27-3 in Tennessee.

So, you do wonder if this team will hit some regression to the mean and start losing these close games or losing by bigger margins during this three-peat attempt. We have always talked about the Chiefs in the context of an elite offense, or in last year’s case, it was an elite defense. Through three games this year, they don’t particularly look elite on either side of the ball. In fact, they look a bit ordinary.

Still 3-0, but not the same spectacle as 2018-22. No longer must-see TV unless you’re into watching reruns of mediocre episodes of your favorite shows. Alas, with the way the rest of the league is playing to start this season, it still might be enough to make history in the end.

Ravens at Cowboys: Almost a Collapse

Is this what every big game in Jerry World is going to look like for Dallas now? The opponent piles up big plays and touchdowns, forcing Dak Prescott to just keep throwing for a ton of volume with no real shot at winning the game. It’s the third time in a row at home with the Packers in the playoffs, the Saints last week, and now the Ravens in this 28-25 final that was somehow a bigger blowout than that suggests, and still really close of a collapse for the Ravens.

Oh yes, I don’t think a win here absolves Baltimore that much for an 0-2 start. This game still reinforced some issues they have with holding leads as they lead the NFL in blown leads of multiple possessions since 2021. The Cowboys cut a 28-6 deficit into 28-25 and were just unfortunate that the defense couldn’t get them the ball back one more time.

The Ravens were explosive with big plays on the ground with Derrick Henry and through the air with Lamar Jackson completing 12 passes for 182 yards. But salting the game away was poorly done, Justin Tucker missed another easy field goal on a day where his new GOAT competition Brandon Aubrey nailed a 65-yard field goal, and you still question if the Ravens would ever dare use this strategy in January with 15 passes to 45 runs.

They absolutely should as I argued this offseason. But they have this obsession with turning Jackson into the passer he’s not and throwing the ball much more in those games when he’s clearly at his most comfortable in a game like this where he threw 15 passes and ran 14 times.

Jackson is now 21-1 against NFC opponents, because they just don’t know him the way his AFC foes (Chiefs, Steelers, Bills, etc.) do. It’s a unique challenge, and I’m not surprised the Cowboys failed it.

But it did get a little too close for comfort at the end there, and I’m not sure how Baltimore keeps letting this happen under John Harbaugh.

Chargers at Steelers: Felt More Like Ravens vs. Steelers

In 2011, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers faced Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers with Ben Roethlisberger struggling through a high-ankle sprain. Pittsburgh was a 3-point underdog, and Ben struggled with 3 interceptions in a 20-3 loss.

Fast forward to 2024, the second career meeting between Tomlin and Harbaugh, and the tables were turned. This time it was Justin Herbert coming in as a 3-point underdog on a high-ankle sprain against an elite defense. He ended up losing 20-10 and didn’t even finish the game.

It’s not a good formula for success, but incredibly, these quarterbacks started a combined 19-for-19 in this game, the best in any game since 1991. It was a ton of short stuff with Fields being safe and Herbert keeping that leg safe for as long as he could. Neither running game was getting it done against these tough defenses.

But in a 10-10 game in the third quarter, the floodgates opened up on the Chargers. Herbert tried to capitalize on Fields’ first turnover of the year after Bud Dupree came down with an interception that was tipped around several players. But Herbert was sacked, and he hurt himself on that one and couldn’t return to the game.

Keep in mind the Chargers already lost edge rusher Joey Bosa in this game. They’d later lose both offensive tackles (Rashawn Slater and rookie Joe Alt) as well. T.J. Watt was getting shut out by Alt, but once those floodgates opened in the third, the Chargers couldn’t stop it. Taylor Heinicke tried to finish the game for Herbert, but he took 3 sacks on 5 dropbacks (!) as the Steelers allowed minus-5 yards of offense in the entire second half.

Fields technically gets credit for a game-winning drive in this one to break the 10-10 tie early with Chris Boswell’s 38-yard field goal, but the Chargers sure did help that along with three penalties for 34 yards on third downs alone to extend the drive.

My hopes of seeing how Fields would perform in a game where a quarterback like Herbert could force him to score in the fourth quarter to win it were dashed when Herbert couldn’t go anymore. Frankly, they probably made a huge mistake in playing him at all this week since this was always a high possibility, and they have the Chiefs up next, a much more important divisional game with the Chiefs looking vulnerable too.

But Fields also put the game away with a 55-yard touchdown pass over the middle to Calvin Ausitn, who showed off his speed. It was the best game Fields played this year by far, and one of the best wins of his career with ease.

I’m still on board with thinking Russell Wilson should get a chance to start in this offense too, but the Steelers are seeing more of Fields each week and he is getting better. The points still aren’t really there, but it hasn’t mattered when you’re giving up 28 points in 3 games.

Eagles at Saints: Let Them Off the Hook

The dumbest team to win this week was definitely Philadelphia. It was evident early on that this was not going to be a high-scoring week for the Saints like the last few have been. Even after starting the game with a field goal, the Saints didn’t have a drive that gained more than 13 yards until the fourth quarter.

Incredibly, this game was still a 3-0 Saints lead going into the fourth quarter despite a total near 50. This is also because the Eagles kept passing up makeable field goals and failing on fourth down. Jalen Hurts had a frustrating game as he completed most of his passes for 311 yards, but he also had multiple turnovers, 4th-down failures, and took 4 sacks.

But it was a game without A.J. Brown that soon became a game without DeVonta Smith too after a dirty-looking hit, and Lane Johnson was also knocked out at right tackle.

But the Eagles did have Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 147 yards and two touchdowns. They also had tight end Dallas Goedert, who had a monster game with 10 catches for 170 yards. Goedert made the critical play on a 3rd-and-16 on the game-winning drive when he got free for 61 yards.

You had three Saints defenders run into each other on the play. A natural pick by the Eagles neutralized the first one, but then veteran corner Marshon Lattimore (No. 23) ran right into his teammate and that’s why Goedert was so wide open. It was like watching the early and mid-2010s Saints on defense.

The Saints are the only NFL team not to win a game after trailing in the fourth quarter since 2023. That was supposed to be a strength of bringing Derek Carr to New Orleans. He had a go-ahead touchdown pass to Chris Olave in this one with 2:03 left, but the Saints missed the crucial 2-point conversion that would have made it 15-7. Instead, the Eagles got the 8 points with Barkley scoring both with 1:01 left.

Carr still had time and a timeout to force overtime with a field goal, but similar to Hurts against Atlanta last week, he took a risk quickly and was intercepted to end the game at 15-12. After leading 15 straight scoring drives to begin 2024, Carr couldn’t even get the team to 15 points in this one.

It was Week 3 last year in Green Bay when the Saints blew a 17-0 lead and missed a clutch field goal that really destroyed their playoff hopes in the end. Let’s hope this game doesn’t set them on a similar path as this was a huge outcome in the NFC to get the Eagles to 2-1 while those teams like Dallas and San Francisco keep losing.

Texans at Vikings: Wiped the Flores with My MVP’s Offense

I guess all that’s left is for the Vikings to start 4-0 by beating up my Super Bowl pick (Packers) next week too. They already won three games in a row against teams I thought would beat them, especially the 49ers and Texans, and they’re only getting stronger after taking down Houston 34-7.

C.J. Stroud is usually very hard to intercept, but he had a pair in this game, he only led one touchdown drive, and he also lost 42 yards on 4 sacks. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores had them flustered, and I don’t think it would have made any difference if running back Joe Mixon was active.

Sam Darnold didn’t have all the big plays this week, but he was smart with the ball, effective, and he threw 4 touchdowns out of it. He’s holding the ball and still making good decisions. We’ll just have to see if he continues it into October or if he starts seeing ghosts again.

But between the schedule looking legit and the team controlling these games on their way to 3-0, I’m dumbfounded by this start. Just never seemed logical that a team that lost Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter would get better on both sides of the ball. Not to mention WR2 Jordan Addison has been out with an injury, and tight end T.J. Hockenson has yet to even play in 2024.

They could theoretically get better. But I’m still not ready to crown the Vikings as the new flash in the pan in the NFC. Probably should get on that Kevin O’Connell for Coach of the Year campaign though.

Broncos at Buccaneers: Not “Bo Picks” This Week

This felt like a trap game to me, so the only bet I had on it was for Bo Nix to throw a pick. He’s had multiple picks in both games, and you had to figure the Bucs would send some heat and get him to mess up in a game where he should have needed to score a fair amount to win.

But man, that was way off. The 0-2 Broncos went across country to pants the 2-0 Buccaneers in their building in a 26-7 final. Nix was in control early, he avoided the turnovers and sacks, and he may have led the Broncos in rushing once again if not for a backup (Badie) breaking a 43-yard run.

That’s an encouraging start. As for the Buccaneers, so much for the Baker Mayfield hype. After Aidan Hutchinson had 4.5 sacks of Mayfield for Detroit last week, Mayfield went down 7 times in this one as the Bucs are struggling up front. Mayfield completed 25 passes but for only 163 yards, which ties Joe Montana for the fewest yards ever in a game with exactly 25 completions. A little weird it came in a game against Denver as we just saw Denver set that record for the fewest yards in games with 26 completions (Nix in Week 1) and 27 completions (Russell Wilson in Week 1, 2023).

Maybe it’s just a Denver thing and it goes both ways. But definitely an upset I wasn’t ready for as the Bucs were just never a threat the whole game.

Bears at Colts: Comically Inept

I know Caleb Williams (2) and Anthony Richardson (6) came into this game with 8 starts between them as the youngest quarterbacks in the NFL. But I still found myself during the third quarter thinking of how this would have been Jay Cutler vs. Andrew Luck a decade ago, and that was just more interesting to me. Maybe these two are the future, but right now, they are raw as hell and I question how much help they’re getting from their play callers.

Both had multiple completions of 40-plus yards for the highlight tapes, but both missed easy throws and had multiple interceptions too. It’s a good thing for Richardson that Jonathan Taylor rushed for 110 yards and two scores to really put the game away. Williams ended up throwing the ball 52 times and gained 363 yards, but some of those yards were hollow like his Hail Mary completion to D.J. Moore before halftime that gained 44 yards but was stopped at the 1-yard line.

But the Bears again barely averaged 2.0 yards per carry, proving that the offensive line is dog shit. The Colts couldn’t stop the run at all in Weeks 1-2, but they had few problems in this one. Chicago’s play-calling in the red zone was also horrible, including a ridiculous sequence in the first half where they came away with no points.

Good on Williams to survive a game with this many throws and keep the sacks down to 4, but he’ll still have to do better than that. Still, I’m not sure Richardson is even capable of a game like this in the NFL. He’s throwing for 40 yards or giving you nothing with his arm right now.

Good on the Colts to see Laiatu Latu come up with a strip-sack in a big moment in the fourth quarter when Williams had the ball in a 14-9 game.

That’s why you draft someone like Latu the way Indy did in this offensive-driven class.

Lions at Cardinals: The Shootout That Wasn’t

I was really hoping for a shootout in this one, and it looked promising when both offenses marched right down the field for touchdowns. But there was very little after that as Kyler Murray struggled to throw for 100 yards until late in the second half when the Cardinals were still desperately down 20-10.

It could have been closer as the refs had a costly mistake at the 2-minute warning in the first half when it sure looked like the Cardinals produced a defensive return touchdown. But they tried to say the 2:00 warning hit, but it appeared the ball was snapped at 2:01. Huge turnaround there as the Lions turned that drive into a touchdown on a nifty designed lateral play from Amon-Ra St. Brown to Jahmyr Gibbs.

The Lions never scored the rest of the way, and it was just a matter of holding on as the Cardinals couldn’t run with James Conner, Trey McBride suffered a concussion, and Murray was floating a lot of bad passes to Marvin Harrison Jr. Just not an efficient offensive performance at all after the first two weeks were so good.

The Detroit defense looks improved this year, but it was still up to the offense to run out the clock in a 20-13 game. Goff found St. Brown on a third-and-12, then he iced the game with an 8-yard scramble.

But not many offensive fireworks to see here – keeping up the 2024 brand for the league.

Packers at Titans: Malik Willis Is Better Than Will Levis?

The revenge game is usually a tired narrative, but this time it really worked out. Not that Malik Willis should feel like the Titans did him dirty. He really struggled when he was with them, but in playing for Green Bay these last two weeks, he has done an incredible job of managing the game.

This week was even better than last as Willis passed for a career-high 202 yards on just 19 throws, and he ran for 73 yards and a touchdown. A true dual-threat performance. He also did it this week with much less help from his running backs on the ground unlike last week against the Colts.

To make things sweeter for Willis, he thrived while Will Levis continues to show that his version of “Big Dick Energy” is to play like there’s zero consequences for your actions just because you’re packing a hammer. Levis took 8 sacks and had 3 more turnovers as the Packers are getting splash plays galore to start this season under their new defensive coordinator.

With the hope that Jordan Love is close to returning, my Super Bowl pick of Green Bay is still looking decent. They know they have a viable backup option in a pinch with Willis, and we’ll see a return to more passing when Love gets back. The defense in the meantime just needs to keep this up as they’ve been very impressive in creating negative plays.

Giants at Browns: Please, Call More Plays Where Deshaun Watson Gets Sacked

Okay, the spread never should have been Browns -6.5, because this team is just not that good with the albatross that is Deshaun Watson at quarterback. He’s actually worse than Daniel Jones right now, and he was certainly worse in this game as he took a whopping 8 sacks.

The Giants fumbled the opening kickoff and gave up a short field touchdown to the Browns, but that Cleveland offense did almost nothing the entire rest of the game. Those fumbles were also the only thing keeping this from being a New York blowout as Danny Dimes did actually deliver on his end. He threw two touchdowns to rookie Malik Nabers, who looks very much like the real deal, and he cut down on sacks and turnovers in a big way this week.

I actually feel bad for Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski as he knows he is likely stuck for Watson for a couple more years. That’s assuming it doesn’t cost him his job. I wouldn’t blame him if he purposely called plays with minimal protection and exposed Watson to more hits in the hopes that he gets injured, and they can keep him off the field that way. The guy was literally just accused of rape once again in a new lawsuit. He doesn’t get any benefit of the doubt, and I don’t know how this team will get through a season if they have to keep playing him when Jameis Winston would obviously outperform him.

Dolphins at Seahawks: Not the Most Unlikely 3-0 Start

Sure, most people probably didn’t see the Seahawks starting 3-0 this year. But with the schedule of quarterbacks, it was very reasonable. They’ve drawn Bo Nix in his rookie debut, a New England passing game that doesn’t want to exist with Jacoby Brissett, and then a break this week with Skylar Thompson starting for an injured Tua Tagovailoa (concussion).

We know Geno Smith and his weapons are good enough to go 9-8. Mike Macdonald just had to improve the defense, and who knows. But we won’t really start to see the defense tested until Week 4 against Detroit.

But this game, it was a 24-3 laugher as the Dolphins were literally showing their ass on the field.

Boy, that stunk. Miami was 1-of-12 on third down, and Thompson took 5 sacks before leaving the game with an injury. It could be Tim Boyle time in Miami next week, or maybe Tyler Huntley who just signed. At what point do we ask if Mike McDaniel and his staff are doing something wrong with their quarterbacks if they’re this brittle that you have to start three in three games? I thought that was a historic outlier when they did it in 2022, but it might happen again here.

All the speed in the world doesn’t mean a damn thing with the wrong player at quarterback.

Panthers at Raiders: Bryce Young Was the Problem After All

Guess I should have bet the house on Andy Dalton after all. He was my No. 1 prop pick this week, I picked the Panthers (+6.5) to win outright, but even then I never expected this 36-22 outcome that completely disproves the idea that Bryce Young had no protection or weapons in Carolina.

The problem was the shortcomings of the quarterback. Similar to last year when Dalton started a game in place of Young for the Panthers, he threw for over 300 yards. But this time he did it much more efficiently, and before you say it was just the Raiders, check again how Maxx Crosby and company fared against Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson to start this season.

Dalton is now the only quarterback this season to throw for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in a game. Crazy, right? He got a career game out of Diontae Johnson with 122 yards and a touchdown. Even the running game showed up as Chuba Hubbard rushed for 114 yards.

The Panthers finally ended their 20-game streak of never taking a snap with a fourth-quarter lead. I don’t think Dalton can go too far with this team, but for one game against the Raiders, he was electric. About time we watch a veteran with more than a decade of experience just sling it on these defenses.

There’s almost none of that in the NFL right now, so I fully support Dalton starting more games while Young “sits and learns” from it all. But this game probably did nuke his trade value even more.

Next week: Cowboys-Giants on TNF? Oh, it’s really over for Dallas if they’re going to lose to Danny Dimes next. Saints-Falcons has some importance in the NFC South, Andy Dalton can stack wins against the Bengals, the Steelers can harass Anthony Richardson to start 4-0, the Vikings-Packers game could somehow be the Game of the Week if Jordan Love returns, and let’s just hope Justin Herbert can return for the Kansas City game. Bills-Ravens a big one on Sunday night I get to preview later this week. Another Monday night doubleheader (not a fan) too, and Seahawks-Lions definitely more interesting than Titans-Dolphins (no one cares).

NFL 2024 Week 3 Predictions: “Ravens Can’t Go 0-3, Can They?” Edition

I’m still up at 6 AM since I did my WNBA 2024 Playoff Preview, something I’d never imagined I would be doing, but here we are. It’s crazy to think they’re going to start the playoffs on an NFL Sunday, one that could be very good too.

I always enjoy Week 3 as some teams have given us wildly different data points in the first two games, and we have to figure out which one to believe in more. But the game I’m really interested in is Cowboys vs. Ravens as both teams could really use it after last week, but the Ravens need it even more to avoid starting 0-3.

Since 2002, 103 teams have started 0-3 and only the 2018 Texans (11-5) won more than 9 games and made the playoffs. One out of 103. That’s also 0-for-16 since the playoff expansion in 2020 and 0-for-10 since the 17th game was added in 2021. The Ravens better show up for that one after coming up short these first two weeks.

But can you trust anything this season with the way big-name injuries are already piling up? Quarterback injuries have me so confused on who to pick in GB-TEN and LAC-PIT this weekend. But the number of top receiving targets who have already been injured this season is crazy and not helping the offensive drought.

But hey, at least a 6-point favorite covered for the first time all season on Thursday night.

This Week’s Articles:

NFL 2024 Week 3 Predictions

The Jets looked very good on Thursday night. Before that game, favorites of 5.5+ points were 0-7-2 ATS this year. Let’s see if the big favorites can dominate this weekend.

Last week, I hedged on 6 games where I picked a different spread winner from the moneyline winner. That paid off as I was 6-0 ATS on those games. Not repeating that with this slate as I only did it twice, and that’s only because of an injury in one game.

I’m counting on the Browns to shit all over Daniel Jones. The Browns don’t have a takeaway yet this season, so let’s get some regression there.

I’m trusting Anthony Richardson to finally win a game he plays the majority of snaps in for the Colts. He’s 0-4 so far, but I’m banking on the Chicago offensive line being unable to give them a good running game against that poor run defense of the Colts.

Line keeps creeping to Minnesota, but I don’t care. Still trusting my Texans and Stroud this week.

Love the Saints to keep scoring a lot and I don’t think the Eagles keep up without A.J. Brown.

I really hope Justin Herbert can play in Pittsburgh, because I want to see what happens when a quarterback who can score points and actually put heat on Justin Fields to do anything in the fourth quarter. He’s had it easy these two games. But with Herbert on a high-ankle sprain, the Steelers might get a big break if he can’t move well. But Joe Alt is going to have his hands full with T.J. Watt. I’ll be watching this one closely.

Expecting Tampa Bay to make things miserable for Bo Nix again.

GB-TEN is the other annoying QB injury game this week. Is Jordan Love playing or not? I’m not exactly feeling a Malik Willis Revenge Game, but the Packers have been forcing turnovers, and Will Levis seems willing to try new creative ways to cough them up. I cautiously take the Packers here.

Going upset with Carolina, though really I think Andy Dalton’s passing overs and the game going over 40 (both teams score 20+) are the best bets there. Might be an actual passing fest between Dalton and Minshew as neither team can run. But look for Dalton to immediately improve the passing game after Bryce Young was benched. Not entirely sure why I’m taking them to win too but I do like +6.5 for the spread.

I don’t believe in Skylar Thompson, so it’s a chance for Mike Macdonald’s defense to eat up at home. Seahawks by 5+ I hope.

Not liking what I’m seeing out of Detroit so far, and that Arizona offense is fun as hell. Upset pick there but it should be a good game. Tight one in the 4Q. Possibly OT.

It’s not like we haven’t seen quarterbacks go into Dallas and light them up. This is on Lamar Jackson to play well. The season is almost teetering early here at 0-2. Something still feels off with the Dallas offense as they lost Tony Pollard and TE Jake Ferguson was injured in Week 1. Not much that’s reliable outside of CeeDee Lamb.

Is anyone not hurt in 49ers-Rams? Meh, Rams already look cooked with these injuries. Just give me the 49ers.

Preview link above for Chiefs-Falcons. Can be a good one. I think Mahomes throws a lot more this week without Pacheco.

Don’t like the way the Jaguars are playing this year. Bills seem to be pretty strong and can win in a variety of ways right now. More interested in the later game.

Did a preview on that one too in Cincy. I think a healthy Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase should lead to Burrow’s best game this year against a terrible defense. But I’m still trusting the Commanders to cover that big of a spread. Shrink the game with long drives again. Avoid those pesky turnovers the Bengals are usually good at getting.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 2

The season where Derek Carr turned into 2007 Tom Brady and held off Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield for the MVP nearly broke me.

I’m trying to keep the big picture in mind for the 2024 NFL season, but after an upset-heavy Sunday where a lot of offenses struggled again, I’m skeptical about what’s to come. This could be a season like 2021 where no one is truly great, and you end up with a Super Bowl between No. 4 seeds.

Though, it probably won’t be the Bengals vs. Rams again as both teams are 0-2 and not looking great. But even the Ravens are 0-2, easily the biggest surprise in that group as you had to think a home game with the Raiders was a given, right?

But nothing is a lock. In fact, the three biggest favorites by the point spread are 0-3 this season. Those were all favorites of 7.5 points or more, including the Bengals last week against New England. Teams favored by that much in Weeks 1-2 were 30-1 SU since 2018. The only other seasons in the 16-game era where three favorites lost this quickly were 1978 and 2003. Those seasons still finished with a traditional Super Bowl rematch (Steelers vs. Cowboys) and the Patriots were in another one (albeit against Jake Delhomme).

Get your Chiefs vs. Saints Super Bowl LIX futures in now? Eh, long way to go, but it was a wake-up call day for a lot of teams. Following 10 games in the early window was insane too. The NFL should really rethink that as the 3-game late slate is not good enough.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bengals at Chiefs: Game of the Week

When Joe Burrow says the Bengals are built specifically to beat the Chiefs, I wonder what he means exactly. On the offensive side of the ball, I don’t really see it. At least not with the current makeup of the Bengals without Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, and with Tee Higgins injured.

But Sunday went against type for the Bengals as they used their tight ends the most they ever have in a game with Burrow, copying some elements of how the Ravens had success with Isaiah Likely in Week 1 using multiple tight ends. When Mike Gesicki (91) and Drew Sample (28) are more than tripling Ja’Marr Chase in (35) in receiving yards, something’s up.

It almost worked out too, but Burrow did not hold up his end of the bargain. Much like in the two AFC Championship Games these teams played, he had a bad turnover in the fourth quarter. But this time it was a strip-sack returned for a touchdown while the Bengals led 22-17. That was huge with the Chiefs struggling to stay ahead of the Bengals in this game.

One could argue the Bengals bring out the worst in the Kansas City offense. In this game, they were able to hold Patrick Mahomes to 151 passing yards, the first time he’s ever been under 166 yards in a game he completed. He only threw it 25 times, but they also got two interceptions, including a brilliant one-handed catch late in the third quarter. Throw in the obligatory fumble from the Chiefs, and the Bengals were up 3-0 in turnovers with the ball before Burrow’s massive fumble.

But if we can back up, why did the Bengals not go for two on a touchdown that made it 22-17 with minutes left in the third? They should have tried to make it 24-17. But Evan McPherson missed the extra point, and that set us down a path that ultimately led to the Chiefs escaping with a 26-25 win. Things would have been different at 24-17. The fumble would only have tied the game, and so would a late field goal by the Chiefs as overtime would have been a possibility.

Going for the extra point was the first mistake, Burrow’s fumble was the second, and the third came on the next drive when Chase lost his cool and picked up a 15-yard flag from the refs. Instead of a 3rd-and-7, the Bengals faced a 3rd-and-22. They were able to salvage that drive for a field goal attempt, and McPherson redeemed himself with a 53-yard field goal to give the Bengals a 25-23 lead.

The Chiefs have a real problem right now with rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia being outmatched by an edge rusher on par with Trey Hendrickson. After Mahomes was sacked, the rookie tackle was also flagged for a hold that negated a 41-yard play to Travis Kelce, who only finished the game with a 5-yard swing catch.

Running out the final 6:57 would have been tough, but the Bengals were doing well until Burrow took another third-down sack and the team had to punt. The Chiefs had 2:35 to get a field goal, but it really felt like they came out of the two-minute warning with a lazy approach as if they weren’t down and this was really important.

A 1-yard run, a nonchalant throwaway, and just like that it was 3rd-and-9 where pressure forced a short throw to bring up 4th-and-6. Then the game got a little goofy. Mahomes made what should have been another game-winning type of play, finding Rashee Rice for 21 yards to the Cincinnati 34. Bang, there’s field goal range in the final 50 seconds with the Bengals down to one timeout.

But a lineman (not Kingsley) was flagged for illegal hands to the face, and it’s hard to say the call was anything but correct. Shades of 2023, the Chiefs were shooting themselves in the foot and had to convert a 4th-and-16. Mahomes threw deep for Rice, but it bounced incomplete off the defensive back’s head only for a flag to come in for pass interference on Daijahn Anthony, a 7th-round rookie who played 2 defensive snaps last week, and somehow he found himself defending the Chiefs’ best receiver on 4th-and-ballgame.

You’ve seen it, I’m sure. Was it not textbook pass interference?

You might get some leeway on defense in a Hail Mary situation, but this was not a Hail Mary throw. It was to a spot where Rice or Anthony could catch it, and Anthony clearly arrived early and tried to play the ball through the receiver by making contact high and to the head. I think they actually might let that one go if he jumped straight up with Rice, but he leaned into him too much and that’s a penalty.

Every little penalty in a Chiefs game turns into this big controversy now, but I see two penalties on crucial fourth-down plays, and both were correct. Had the first one not been called, the Chiefs are running the ball a couple of times and kicking a field goal from the same distance or even shorter than they ultimately did. You can’t just harp on the 4th-and-16 and ignore that the Bengals were fortunate they got a 4th-and-6 call that negated a conversion.

The Chiefs didn’t make it any easier on Harrison Butker, but from 51 yards out, he was money right down the middle again for the 26-25 escape to drop the Bengals to 0-2.

The prospects of the 2024 Chiefs fielding their strongest team yet are not looking great. They’re 2-0 against arguably two of their main AFC rivals, but is that saying a lot right now? New England beat Cincy and the Raiders just beat the Ravens.

I don’t doubt the Chiefs won’t be the toughest out for anyone in January, but you combine a Hollywood Brown injury that will keep him out of the regular season with this very unproductive Kelce start and add in a Pacheco injury at the end of this game, and things aren’t looking the greatest.

But I think if you’re just being honest as a Chiefs fan, you don’t want to see this Cincinnati team again this season. They just have that way of bringing out the worst with this offense.

Raiders at Ravens: Upset of the Year

In Week 3 last season, the Ravens lost 22-19 at home in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite against Gardner Minshew and the Colts. This year in Week 2, they lost 26-23 at home as an 8.5-point home favorite against Minshew and the Raiders. It’s the worst spread loss for the Ravens in the regular season in the Lamar Jackson era.

What is going on in Baltimore? They usually save these disappointments for January, but Justin Tucker is missing 50-yard field goals while the rest of the league crushes them, Derrick Henry struggled to get going for a long time Sunday, and once again Minshew led the game-winning drive Jackson couldn’t. Remember, Jackson didn’t have a single game-winning drive last year despite the team’s 13 wins in his MVP season.

This game was too close for comfort for a long time, but it sure looked like the Ravens had it in the bag when Henry scored to make it 23-13 with 12:11 left. But the Raiders got a field goal, Henry was called for a false start to knock the offense out of a 3rd-and-1 on a three-and-out, and the Raiders were bailed out on a 3rd-and-17 incompletion with a defensive pass interference penalty in the end zone.

We looked at the Kansas City DPI, so here’s the Baltimore one:

I don’t like the call, but I can kind of see the optics for why Davante Adams was able to sell it for a penalty. I see Stephens initiate the contact with his left hand on Adams, but they were both grabbing and fighting each other into the end zone. But at the last moment, Adams positions himself to dive for the ball while Stephens takes a different angle and bats at it. Maybe if did more to let Adams go to try going for the pick, they would have let it go.

But that is definitely a tough call. Adams caught a touchdown on the next snap and the game was tied with 3:54 left. Maxx Crosby immediately sacked Jackson to blow up another drive for a 3-and-out. Just a terrible drive for the Ravens there.

The special teams are usually great, but the Ravens hurt themselves with a 24-yard punt, so Minshew got to start at the Baltimore 43. The drive moved 23 yards and Daniel Carlson was good on a 38-yard field goal to take a 26-23 lead with 27 seconds left.

You still have a chance with Tucker’s leg despite recent misses, but the Ravens were out of timeouts. With one snap left and 59 yards away, I guess Lamar thought his best shot was to run for it and lateral, but I’m not sure why he didn’t keep going down the left sideline before starting that part of it.

The Raiders rushed for just 27 yards in this game while Baltimore had 151 thanks to that last play being their longest in the game. But this makes the Raiders the only NFL team since 1970 to win as an 8.5-point underdog while rushing for less than 30 yards and getting outrushed by over 115 yards.

Just a brutal loss for the Ravens (0-2). Was the loss of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to Seattle even bigger than expected? They were still blowing a handful of multi-score leads under Macdonald in 2022 as well, so maybe 2023 was the outlier here.

It’s not getting any easier too. The Ravens are in Dallas before hosting Buffalo the next two weeks. There’s at least precedent for them losing at home by a field goal to Minshew and losing to Mahomes, but they have to start showing more than they have so far in 2024.

Saints at Cowboys: Did Carr Absorb Brady’s Powers Before the Game?

Well, I was right about Derek Carr throwing an interception in Dallas. But that was only after he hung 41 points as the Saints opened with six straight touchdown drives, looking like some mixture of the 1999 Rams, 2007 Patriots, and the 2023 Packers team that went into Jerry’s World in January and embarrassed Dallas.

I liked the Saints to make the playoffs and possibly win the NFC South this year, but where the hell did all of this come from? I guess maybe beating up those South teams wasn’t meaningless as they only just added to this figure of dominance from last week and late in 2023:

The 2023-24 Saints join the 1941 Bears, 1968 Browns, 2007 Patriots, and 2018 Saints as the only teams in NFL history to score at least 44 points in three straight games. That’s historic company for a team no one was expecting this from. Alvin Kamara is out there playing like he’s 1999 Marshall Faulk. Carr’s 96.2 QBR leads the league and he’s treating Rashid Shaheed like he’s his Randy Moss.

But in one of the most shocking stats I’ve ever heard, Derek Carr started this season with 15 straight scoring drives.

How did he do that? That’s 9 straight scores against Carolina, then he was benched for the backup on the final two drives (both punts) with the game in hand, then he led 6 straight touchdowns in Dallas to get to 15.

I’m not sure if any quarterback has done that before even if you search through prime Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or Mahomes. Even when Josh Allen reached some offensive perfection in the 2021 playoffs by going 7-for-7 on touchdown drives against New England, and best you can stretch that out to 10 straight scoring drives by including the regular season finale and the next playoff game in Kansas City. He started that one with a punt on his second drive, so even him playing his best didn’t come close to 15 straight scores.

The quarterback being pulled for the score is certainly a strong factor for why this streak can even exist. But I honestly don’t know if you can find another streak like this for a quarterback in the NFL.

And it’s Derek Carr who did it? Insane. Carr only threw 16 passes in Dallas but they went for 243 yards. It was an onslaught of big passing plays and a consistent ground game. The Cowboys never had much of a shot to keep up as Dak Prescott threw for 293 yards, a touchdown, and 2 picks. The first pick was the swing moment just before halftime when the Cowboys were down 28-13 and just converted a 3rd-and-10. The pick felt a little similar to the pick-six he threw in January to Green Bay to make it 27-0.

But I still never would have believed the Saints had this type of performance in them. When we’re asking for a team to step up this year and show it’s great now, could this really be the team that does it? Is new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak a nepotism hire that’s worth its weight in gold?

Very curious to see where this goes as the Sains have been blowing teams out for longer than two weeks. No one cared late in 2023 because they were missing the playoffs. They should have everyone’s attention now.

49ers at Vikings: They Haven’t Won in Minnesota Since WHEN?

I couldn’t believe this stat when I heard it, but the 49ers haven’t won in Minnesota since December 1992, or a month after Bill Clinton won his first presidential election. The 49ers were on an 0-7 streak in Minnesota.

Make it 0-8 now. I knew they lost in Minnesota last season on a Monday night, and I chalked that up to injuries (Christian McCaffrey), a fluky touchdown to Jordan Addison before the half, and Purdy suffering a concussion late in the game before he threw some bone-headed picks. I liked the 49ers, who were without CMC again, to roll with Jordan Mason and overcome that loss last year.

Welp, I was wrong. They let Sam Darnold hit Justin Jefferson for a 97-yard touchdown that could go down as the longest play from scrimmage in this entire season. The 49ers also had a punt blocked, turned it over on downs twice, and Brock Purdy coughed up the ball on a drive that should have led to a 27-7 lead for the Vikings in the fourth quarter, but Aaron Jones fumbled on his way to the goal line to keep some hope alive in a 20-7 game.

But there was no comeback. Despite a 99-yard touchdown drive after the Jones fumble, the vaunted San Francisco defense couldn’t get Darnold off the field in several crucial third-down chances with Jefferson sidelined with an injury. Addison was already out before the game, and the Vikings haven’t even had tight end T.J. Hockenson available yet in these games. They could actually get better.

But their 6:46 drive for a field goal was a dagger as the Vikings were back up 23-14 with just 3:30 left. The 49ers added a field goal with 1:12 left to make it 23-17, but they couldn’t get the ball back after the onside kick failed.

I guess Brian Flores’ scheme is the magic weapon against the 49ers (without CMC)? Mason still rushed for 100 yards. Purdy still threw for 319, but it was the 6 sacks and the timely stops that frustrated the 49ers the entire game.

Buccaneers at Lions: Something’s Missing with Detroit

This spread (Lions -7.5) felt too high even if Detroit technically covered it twice last year against Tampa Bay. But the Buccaneers looked great last week, and Baker Mayfield has been playing very well. I wasn’t that impressed with Detroit last week in the overtime win over a battered Rams team, and sure enough, they were worse in this game.

Something just feels off with Detroit right now. Jameson Williams had a 50-yard catch again and looks better than Josh Reynolds ever did, so it’s not the lack of a WR2 or anything. Maybe it ‘s a slow start for tight end Sam LaPorta (13 yards) or how the running game hasn’t really been that great outside of the overtime drive last week.

But it always looks worse when Jared Goff is throwing his Jared Goof picks, and that happened a couple of times in this one. Even though the defense, led by an incredible effort from Aidan Hutchinson (4.5 sacks) got to Mayfield 5 times, they still gave up a rushing touchdown to Mayfield late in the third quarter to trail 20-16.

That still left Goff with four opportunities to get the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter, and despite each drive crossing deep into Tampa territory, the Lions went scoreless. Goff had a bad pick and later turned it over on downs twice despite the defense continuing to get him the ball back.

It was a big missed opportunity in a winnable game.

Bears at Texans: Not Quite My MVP’s Night

After a Sunday filled with contenders disappointing, I was hoping to see the Texans put on a show Sunday night in an easy win over Chicago. Instead, they scored 19 points on 12 drives, blew the spread, and had to come up with a last-second stop of rookie Caleb Williams, who was under duress all night from the pass rush.

At least the pass rush looked good with 7 sacks and plenty of pressures. But the Texans went from scoring 13 points on three drives to struggling the rest of the game. It looks like the huge Joe Mixon game in Week 1 was more about playing the Colts, a lousy run defense, than expecting any dominance out of the Houston running game this year. Mixon finished with 9 carries for 25 yards in this one as he was banged up.

But Stroud was solid, and that connection with Nico Collins (135 yards) is dominant. There is no denying who the WR1 in Houston is this year.

But I would have liked to see the Texans win in more convincing fashion against a Chicago team that still clearly has flaws with the offensive line, coaching, and Wiliams’ inexperience. He was better than he was in Week 1 at least.

Jets at Titans: Big Dick vs. Big Dick Energy

I guess the Jets can survive a team like Tennessee with this kind of effort, but they still have a lot of work to do to get up to the elite class. Aaron Rodgers might be good for one highlight-reel touchdown a week in this offense, but the highlight largely belonged to Breece Hall for a brilliant 26-yard touchdown that made him look like a wideout. Keep in mind that was on a drive to open the half that was nearly stopped on a three-and-out before a roughing penalty on the Titans negated a 3rd-and-15 stop.

The Titans had a lot of costly mistakes again in falling to 0-2. Will Levis again tried to do too much and had multiple turnovers, and they also had a punt blocked.

But to break a 17-17 tie in the fourth quarter, Rodgers led a 74-yard touchdown drive with 4:31 left. When Levis had to answer, his legs got them within 8 yards, but then things stalled out with a big sack, and Levis threw incomplete on 4th-and-14 to end the game.

The game did at least end a 7-game streak where Rodgers did not throw multiple touchdown passes, a streak that went back to November 2022.

Colts at Packers: Coaching Matters

A good example of how coaching matters. The Packers didn’t have Jordan Love, and their backup Malik Willis has failed to throw for 100 yards in each of his three NFL starts. But Matt LaFleur had a run-heavy gameplan as the Packers rolled up 261 yards on the ground with most of that coming before halftime as Josh Jacobs (151 yards) and company were outstanding. Well, except for that horrible fumble by Jacobs at the 1-yard line as he carried the ball like a loaf of bread.

But the Packers managed the game beautifully without Love. Willis finished 12-of-14 for 122 yards and a touchdown pass while rushing for 41 yards.

At this point, you have to wonder if Shane Steichen should be employing a similar approach with the raw Anthony Richardson, who threw 34 times but was picked off three times, including a Hail Mary to end things in the 16-10 loss. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor rushed for 103 yards but only had 12 carries. The Packers had long drives early while the Colts struggled to get into any rhythm.

The Colts are now 0-4 in games where Richardson plays most of the snaps. Not great.

Browns at Jaguars: The Lawrence Splits Continue

I said I was hedging my Week 2 picks with six games where I picked a spread winner different from the moneyline winner. I ended up going 5-0 ATS on those games (Falcons-Eagles pending) and 2-3 SU, so it wasn’t a bad strategy. Just needed a little more courage to pick the Browns and Packers outright to win.

But the reasons I liked the Browns in this one? They beat the Jaguars last year and I feel the defense has the right pieces to force Trevor Lawrence into a rough game, especially after discovering these stats where he basically can’t win a game if he doesn’t complete over 60% of his passes.

Sure enough, he was 14-of-30 in this game, so he was under 50% in the 18-13 loss. It was a rough game that seemingly never wanted to end as the Jaguars tried to make a comeback attempt late. They even had a 2-yard go-ahead touchdown with half a quarter left that was taken away for an illegal shift. They settled for a field goal to make it 16-13, Lawrence couldn’t get out of his end zone with the ball to start the next possession, and that sacked produced a safety with 1:44 left.

But the Browns were not able to run out the clock, and a Deshaun Watson incompletion on third down actually saved Lawrence a solid 40 seconds to make this 18-13 comeback plausible with 1:27 left.

He still had to go 90 yards, but after reaching the Cleveland 28, Lawrence’s Hail Mary was knocked away to end the game and drop the Jaguars to a disappointing 0-2 after both games were winnable.

Lawrence is now 2-21 when he doesn’t complete at least 60% of his passes. Daniel Jones is in the same boat and is now 1-17 when he doesn’t too, the only record that’s worse among the 179 quarterbacks since 1970 with at least 50 games of experience.

This might be how I pick Jacksonville games the rest of the year. Determining if Lawrence is going to complete a high rate or not. Right now, the connection to Christian Kirk is completely broken, and it didn’t help that tight end Evan Engram was injured in warm-ups and missed this game.

Giants at Commanders: OnlyFGs

Jayden Daniels’ first game-winning drive was a historic NFL game. I was skeptical of how Daniels would fare in a Kliff Kingsbury offense, but we have two games of evidence that he has drive engineering skills that can be very intriguing once he gets better at throwing the ball, especially to his wide receivers.

But after only getting the ball 8 times last week in Tampa Bay, each team only had the ball 7 times in this game. The Commanders just happened to turn all 7 of their possessions into field goals by Austin Seibert. That speaks poorly for their red-zone ability, but 3.00 Pts/Dr is still elite.

They took a knee before the half too, but this is really a perfect game if the goal was to score all field goals, and I don’t think there’s another like it in NFL history. If you search for games since 1940 where a team had no punts and no turnovers, only one game comes up showing a team that scored fewer than 26 points, and I’m thinking that’s just an error that they’re missing data for punts or turnovers or something’s off.

Only three teams show up for a game with 0 punts, 0 turnovers, and 5 field goal attempts. Interestingly enough, the Giants scored three touchdowns in this game and still lost because they only scored 18 points. Their kicker (Graham Gano) was injured before the game, made it worse on the opening kickoff, which was a 98-yard return by Austin Ekeler negated by penalty, and the backup missed an extra point. So, the Giants tried to go for two twice and failed both times.

Just an extremely unique way to get to a 21-18 score as both offenses were moving the ball quite well. Malik Nabers also looked the part of a No. 1 wideout with 10 catches for 127 yards and his first touchdown. But he’ll regret not hauling in that last target that he had a diving attempt for on 4th-and-4 at the Washington 22 with 2:09 left.

Instead, the Commanders took over in a tied game and Daniels hit his longest pass play for 34 yards to Noah Brown to set up the final, winning field goal with no time left. All seven field goals were from within 45 yards, and 6-of-7 were from within 33 yards.

You probably won’t see another one like this, but it does point to some interesting ways Daniels can operate in this offense with short passes and timely scrambles/designed runs. He just needs to stay healthy.

Steelers at Broncos: Flag Fest

It’s hard to judge the Pittsburgh offense right now as it seems like every highlight-worthy play gets called back by penalty, and sometimes it’s not even a good call. The Steelers only scored 13 points in Denver, but that was enough to outlast a supposed offensive genius in Sean Payton, who relied on some tricks to get Bo Nix to complete some passes down the field. But Nix wasn’t as painfully inefficient as he was last week in his debut. He’s just struggling on a team that frankly is lousy, and they have no real running game to support him with.

But it was a tough game to watch with 19 accepted penalties for 202 yards between the teams. The Steelers punted 8 times while the only turnover was a pick in the end zone by Nix before he added a second on a last-ditch desperation throw.

The Steelers reportedly gave Russell Wilson a game ball in the revenge game his calf wouldn’t let him play. I wonder what Tomlin is thinking at this point as they are not scoring enough points to beat any decent team, but Fields also isn’t screwing up egregiously yet to bench him for Wilson, a wild card.

But celebrating a 2-0 start when you’re averaging 15.5 points per game is a weird thing to do. They still have a lot of the offensive stink they’ve had since December 2020.

Chargers at Panthers: Stress-Free 2-0 Chargers

It almost happened last week, and it did happen Sunday when J.K. Dobbins had more rushing yards (131) than Justin Herbert had passing yards (130). But Herbert threw for two touchdowns to Quentin Johnston, who held on this time, and it was a stress-free 26-3 win over a pathetic Carolina team. Herbert is owed some layups after what he endured his first four seasons.

But it’s shocking that the Panthers actually look worse in every way this year under coach Dave Canales. Bryce Young is daring to be the worst quarterback drafted No. 1 overall since JaMarcus Russell, and maybe the only thing stopping me from calling him the biggest bust is that he’s a tiny guy with a relatively small contract.

But Young flat-out stinks as he managed to complete 18-of-26 passes for just 84 yards. Young is the only quarterback in NFL history to complete at least 18 passes in a game without throwing for 100 yards.

I didn’t think there was anything Canales could do to get himself fired like Frank Reich did 11 games into the 2023 season, but I might have to rethink that. This team is still the worst in the NFL and there has been nothing they could even hang their hat on from either game so far.

Seahawks at Patriots: Better Played Than Expected

You might have imagined a rough offensive game with this one being a “body clock” game for Seattle, which traveled without the services of Kenneth Walker. But the offenses were actually solid in doing what they do best.

The Patriots didn’t ask Jacoby Brissett to throw much, but they found creative ways to get the ball to tight end Hunter Henry for 109 yards. That supported a running game that piled up 185 yards.

But when it came time to pick up a 3rd-and-1 in overtime, Rhamondre Stevenson was stopped and the Patriots decided to punt from their 39. They never saw the ball again, but that is a tough call to go for it as the game is about to be over with a field goal inside the 40 if you don’t get it. Tough spot to come up short after another good rushing effort.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks couldn’t run the ball without Walker, gaining 38 yards on 14 carries with his replacement (Charbonnet). But props to Geno Smith for a big-time passing game (327 yards) without any turnovers.

The Seahawks blocked a 48-yard field goal with 3:54 left that would have made them have to score a touchdown, so add that to the list of “shit that Tom Brady never had to worry about in New England for two decades.”

That allowed the Seahawks to tie with a field goal to force overtime, and the defense’s impressive stop got them the ball back deep in their own end. Geno delivered on the game-winning drive, and the Seahawks paid it off with a 31-yard field goal to win 23-20 in overtime.

The Seahawks are 2-0, and with Tua Tagovailoa probably being out for Miami in Week 3, they have a real shot to go 3-0 with this schedule opportunity.

Rams at Cardinals: Did You Really Doubt Marvin Harrison Jr.?

It’s funny how we had one week of panic over Marvin Harrison Jr. because he caught one ball for 4 yards last week, and apparently the GPS data said he never ran faster than 16 miles per hour.

Well, we can put that one to rest after he caught 4 balls for 130 yards and two touchdowns in the game’s first 12 minutes. He didn’t add to those numbers, but the team also didn’t need him to as they blasted a battered Rams team 41-10 in a game that was expected to be much tighter. Sean McVay usually is on the right end of these blowouts, but this time it was all about the weapons the Cardinals have (MHJ, Trey McBride, James Conner) and the dwindling options for the Rams after losing Cooper Kupp in the game. They already lost Puka Nacua in Week 1.

Throw in Stafford getting sacked 5 times behind a battered line, and this has the potential to turn into 2022 much quicker than any wild card season for the Rams. It’s getting late early.

Next week: Patriots-Jets on Thursday? I’ll be working on the computer. Texans-Vikings suddenly a lot more interesting than it has any business being. Eagles-Saints could be good, or the Saints could roll yet another team if Jalen Hurts is really as mistake prone this year as he looked in Brazil. Malik Willis Revenge Game in Tennessee, or does Jordan Love already come back? Chargering comes to Pittsburgh, or does it? Steelers might actually need to score more than one touchdown in that game. Definitely a lot of pressure in Cowboys-Ravens game as one will be 0-3 or 1-2 after it. So many amusing ways that one could go. Chiefs should be sharper in Atlanta on Sunday night. A somewhat bland MNF doubleheader (Jags-Bills, Commanders-Bengals), but let’s see if Jayden Daniels can drop Cincy to 0-3 and if the Bills can drop the Jags to 0-3.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 1

My 2024 NFL season predictions featured “Making Offense Great Again” (MOGA) as the central theme to this season. Things got off to a solid start on Thursday and Friday night (bad field in Brazil withstanding), but Sunday was a kick in the nuts.

Most quarterbacks did not pass for over 200 yards, and we still might have Malik Willis to (not) look forward to with Green Bay next week after Jordan Love’s MCL injury.

I’m getting a late start on this, and I may do a story on it early this week, so I don’t want to get into all the details here. But the offensive revolution might be on hold again unless we let the Saints play the Panthers every week.

So far, 9-of-15 games featured a comeback opportunity, which is very normal. But it’s not so normal to only get one game with a true fourth-quarter lead change from an offense with time left in an entire week of games. It’s not like I expect another to come from Jets-49ers tomorrow night, but we’ll see.

Overall, I enjoyed Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The prime-time games (mostly) delivered, which can make up for a rough Sunday afternoon.

Rams at Lions: Game of the Day

Our first overtime game of 2024 was not a classic, but it was a solid playoff rematch from last year with Matthew Stafford falling to 0-2 against his former team in Detroit.

This game had a lot of injuries as Puka Nacua didn’t play the second half, and the offensive line was banged up badly for the Rams. Not much room for Kyren Williams, who never broke a run longer than 9 yards. Cooper Kupp ended up with 14 catches on 21 targets to make up for the loss of Nacua, and it almost was enough for the night.

Jameson Williams had his breakout game for the Lions with 121 yards and a touchdown. But I’m going to say it’s not ideal when Amon-Ra St. Brown only has 3 catches for 13 yards, one of the least productive games of his career. Jared Goff was up and down, and he got away with a dropped interception in the fourth quarter.

It was a rough game, but credit to the Rams for coming back from a double-digit deficit to taking a late 20-17 lead on a Kupp touchdown. But with a chance to run out the clock the way the Lions did to them in the playoffs, the Rams failed. Goff got his second chance, and he didn’t waste it. The Lions settled for overtime with a 32-yard field goal, but that was the right call as we know Dan Campbell loves a fourth down attempt.

After the way Super Bowl 58 ended, you kind of long for the strategy and system there to return, but we’re stuck with the old modified format. Sure enough, the Lions turned into the most dominant rushing team in the world all of a sudden and ran it right down the Rams’ throat despite little success earlier in the game. The Lions had 7 carries for 60 yards on the 70-yard drive in overtime, finishing things off with a 1-yard touchdown run by David Montgomery to win it 26-20, which means they even covered the spread (Lions -4.5).

Tough loss for an undermanned Rams team that was right there again. But with Jordan Love injured in Green Bay, the Lions look to be in good shape relative to the rest of the NFC North right now.

Patriots at Bengals: Upset of the Week

I should have known better that this game was trouble when it had the biggest spread (Bengals by 8+) of Week 1 as the Bengals simply shit the bed to start the season more often than not. Blame Zac Taylor, blame Joe Burrow, but they keep doing this.

At some point, you have to acknowledge the facts. I don’t want to hear that Tee Higgins was out, or that they lost Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon in the offseason. What happened to “watch out for Iosivas” this season? I don’t even want to hear that Ja’Marr Chase had food poisoning this weekend. Chase played and he caught all 6 targets for 62 yards.

The real question should be why not more targets? We saw what Matthew Stafford, a real gamer, did on Sunday night with an absurdly injured offensive line, missing his tight end (Tyler Higbee), and Puka Nacua left with an injury suffered in the first half. He targeted Cooper Kupp 21 times and did what he could.

If Burrow is as good as people say he is, then he needs to overcome some of these shortcomings more often. This was another poor, lifeless Week 1 performance from the offense, which had 224 yards and 13 first downs.

Now there weren’t many possessions in this game, and Tanner Hudson blew points with a fumble inside the 3-yard line, which sounds like old-school New England defense to me.

The Patriots grinded things out on the ground with Rhamondre Stevenson rushing 25 times for 120 yards. Jacoby Brissett only passe for 121 yards, but he didn’t have turnovers and he only took a single sack. It was just enough

But even when the Bengals got the ball back in a 16-10 game with 3:04 left at their own 10, that was a great setup for a heroic Burrow drive. Instead, it was a three-and-out, and despite having four clock stoppages, the defense couldn’t get the ball back. The Patriots ran out the clock.

But you have to do better than a 3-and-out that deep in that spot. Just terrible, and now we’ll see if they can work their magic against the Chiefs next week to avoid starting 0-2.

Panthers at Saints: Rout of the Week

Statistically, the Saints were one of the most dominant teams on the scoreboard late in the 2023 season, and that’s a good trait for a team to make the playoffs the following year. I’m not taking any victory lap yet after they smashed the god damn Carolina Panthers, but on a Sunday where most NFL teams didn’t look great, the Saints’ utter dominance in every facet was impressive.

Remember, the Panthers were supposed to be improved this year with a new coach (Dave Canales), new weapons, and Bryce Young no longer being a rookie. But wow, Young may be heading down the path of all-time bust if this continues.

The Saints scored 17 points before Young even completed a pass. That’s hard to do. That also made it nearly impossible for him to succeed in this game, but he never settled in and the Saints continued blowing the Panthers out until it was 47-10.

Thankfully, we’ll see the Saints play in Dallas next week, so there’s a great chance to see where this team really is. As for Carolina, yikes, this is about the worst way to start after a 2-15 season where you never took a snap with a fourth-quarter lead.

Cowboys at Browns: The Only Way to Make Deshaun Watson Worse Is to Give Him Tom Brady’s Voice

Here’s what the Cowboys-Browns game featured:

  • Dak Prescott, the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history at $60 million per season after finally getting his extension Sunday morning despite never reaching the NFC Championship Game.
  • Deshaun Watson, who made the largest $230 million theft in NFL history when he fleeced the Browns in a 2022 trade for a fully-guaranteed contract despite more than two dozens accusations of sexual misconduct.
  • Tom Brady, the highest-paid broadcaster in NFL history at $37.5 million, more than double the next closest person despite zero experience in the broadcasting booth.

Is it any surprise the game turned out to be a piece of shit?

Prescott had one of his most forgettable games in the Mike McCarthy era. After a good start, his special teams basically put up the last 19 points with a punt return touchdown and four field goal drives that covered a whopping 42 yards between them.

And he was still easily the best quarterback on the field. The only way you could have made Watson worse was if you gave him Tom Brady’s voice. But I’m not going to get into why I think Brady has the completely wrong voice for this job that he stole from a more deserving Greg Olsen.

But Watson again looked terrible, and while you can respect a good Dallas front, the sack merchant was ever present with multiple turnovers and an inability to sustain offense. Even worse, Watson’s arm just looked shot. I don’t know how Kevin Stefanski doesn’t just bench him and go with Jameis Winston, but this continues to be the worst trade in NFL history and the biggest sunk cost you’ll ever see.

Ezekiel Elliott looked youthful and strong compared to washed-up Watson. It’s a miracle the Cowboys were ever a 2.5-point underdog in this one.

Jaguars at Dolphins: The One Where Tyreek Got Arrested First

You can’t make this stuff up. Tyreek Hill went from nearly going downtown with police officers, under arrest for a verbal altercation after a traffic violation, to catching the longest touchdown reception (80 yards) of his NFL career to spark a comeback win by Miami.

The Dolphins were very sluggish, down 14-0 to the Jaguars, before Hill took off for the end zone and even recreated the handcuffing incident he had in the morning. Watching that footage play out after watching the new Netflix movie Rebel Ridge (it’s great) the night before is crazy.

This is the third article tonight I’m writing about this incident, so I’m a little tongue-tied about it. But I really thought I was looking at AI images when I opened my phone Sunday morning and saw Hill handcuffed. Only the multiple videos and tweets from Adam Schefter clued me in this was real.

But what a major disappointment for the Jaguars, who went scoreless after halftime. They had a 17-7 lead and were 13 yards away from the end zone late in the third quarter. But Travis Etienne fumbled at the 3-yard line, one of the weekend’s biggest turnovers, and that completely changed the game. A play later, it was Tyreek for 80 yards.

The big plays won it for Miami, and kicker Jason Sanders redeemed himself for an earlier miss with a 52-yard field goal at the buzzer to win 20-17. Miami never led in the game before that final snap.

Curious to see where things go from here with the team’s biggest nemesis, Buffalo, coming into town Thursday night.

Titans at Bears: The Comeback Win I Sorta Predicted for Caleb Williams’ Debut

One of my favorite picks this week was Chicago getting a clutch, comeback win in Caleb Williams’ debut to start helping out Matt Eberflus’ league-worst record in such games.

Well, it happened. It didn’t happen in any way I imagined, but it was a classic throwback to the 2006 Bears and the way they came back to beat the Cardinals on Monday Night Football with multiple return touchdowns.

The Bears were awful offensively, trailed 17-0, and only finished with 148 yards of offense. The preseason is not the regular season, and Caleb was 14-of-29 for 93 yards. On the bright side, he only took two sacks and threw no picks. Jusitn Fields probably loses this game if given the chance.

But Williams was not doing much to help the comeback effort. The Bears blocked a punt for a touchdown. They also turned a strip-sack of Will Levis into a field goal drive that netted 1 yard.

But it ended up being one of the hardest games I’ve ever had to catalogue for 4QC/GWD purposes:

  • Chicago trailed 17-10 to start the fourth quarter and had a drive going with Williams.
  • The 44-yard drive ended with a 50-yard field goal to make it 17-13.
  • Levis coughed up the ball, setting up that 1-yard drive for a field goal to make it 17-16.
  • Technically, you just had two 4QC/GWD attempts, and the offense chipped in two field goals.
  • Four plays later, Will Levis forced a pick-six, and there goes the go-ahead score for Chicago at 22-17.
  • Williams completed a 2-point conversion pass to D’Andre Swift to make it 24-17, an important 7-point cushion.

It’s clearly a team fourth-quarter comeback. It’s clearly not a game-winning drive since the pick-six is not a drive. The 2PC was important though, and that makes me wonder if I should be counting it. But I’m not going to. At the same time, I’m giving Williams the 4QC win since without the two field goals from the offense, the pick-six doesn’t win the game for Chicago.

It’s a messy situation, and it’s all the fault of Levis. Why in the hell would you force this pass up on 3rd-and-6 with the lead? Just take the sack and live another drive.

That is seriously some 2001 or 2006 Bears bullshit. Also, of course Levis couldn’t make up for it on the final drive, getting picked again.

Williams did not impress, but Levis disappointed even more as he should be further along than this. I’m really not sure about that 2023 draft class outside of C.J. Stroud.

Texans at Colts: My MVP Gets It Done in Wild Week 1 Game

C.J. Stroud is my MVP pick this year, but how about those new additions in Houston? Stefon Diggs caught both of Stroud’s touchdowns, but it was running back Joe Mixon who had the huge game with 159 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The Colts had few answers for this offense, especially in must-stop situations.

But the player I thought was the biggest wild card this year is Anthony Richardson, and he did not disappoint with his “boom-or-bust” playing label. He was only 9-of-19 passing, but he had three different completions for over 50 yards, including a 60-yard touchdown pass to Alec Pierce that was one of the longest and most impressive touchdown throws I’ve ever seen in the NFL:

He even slid before throwing it, so he didn’t fully step into it. Incredible play. Too bad he misses some of the easy ones, so if he can correct that with experience, then the Colts should have something here.

At least offensively. The defense could not stop Houston in the fourth quarter despite the offense making it a 2-point game twice. The Texans responded with touchdowns twice, including a play I loved the decision for from coach DeMeco Ryans.

The Texans were up 22-20 and faced 4th-and-2 at the 2-yard line with 4:45 left. Why kick the field goal to go up 5 points and risk losing on a touchdown in the final minute? Go for the jugular, which they did, and Diggs caught his second touchdown to make it a 2-score game again.

But even after Indy scored to again make it 29-27, the four-minute offense went to work with a couple of first downs, including a 3rd-and-11 conversion for 12 yards from Stroud to Nico Collins, a Colts killer.

It’s only one game, but again, this is why I’m big on the Texans to be a new rival to the Chiefs. If you get Stroud playing like this, he’s someone who could outduel Mahomes in a fourth quarter and keep the ball away from him in a one-score game.

Green Bay, my Super Bowl pick, almost broke my heart Friday night with the sloppy performance and Love injury. But the Texans, who were my Green Bay equivalent in the AFC to possibly derail Kansas City’s three-peat, gave me some confidence with this performance.

But let’s keep it going and get even better.

Steelers at Falcons: The Six Field Goal Mike Tomlin Special

I ended up (regrettably) watching most of this game. Basically, it was the kind of Chicago Bears win you would have thought Justin Fields could have enjoyed there. Pretty lousy offense, Fields flirting with disaster on fumbled snaps to start the game, bad third-down sacks as the coaching staff didn’t trust him, and the defense and special teams were fantastic for the Steelers.

T.J. Watt and kicker Chris Boswell basically won the game for them. We know the last Mike Tomlin playoff win was 18-16 on six field goals against the 2016 Chiefs. He kind of did it again as Boswell made six field goals and most of them were very long.

Watt was a beast again, and Kirk Cousins looked very rusty and slow in a new offense after his Achilles tear. Not a good debut at all for him, and it’s as if Arthur Smith never left. Hell, he was in the building calling multiple runs on 3rd-and-long in this game.

But this is how the Steelers win. Keep it close and hope that a fumble happens when a receiver is running in motion for Atlanta. That really did happen, and of course, Watt was the one there to pounce on the ball in a big moment.

But Cousins had his chances to be the hero as Fields – no shocker – couldn’t put the game away. But he was picked with 2:34 left and then sacked by Watt on the final snap to mercifully end this one.

The Steelers have some compensation incentives to not keep playing Fields, and I think we’ll see Russell Wilson eventually. But this kind of offense isn’t going to beat that many teams in the NFL without superhuman efforts from Watt.

He might be up to the task though, especially if the idea that linemen playing closer to the line instead of leaning back is a point of emphasis to cut down on those illegal formations.

However, I’m still puzzled as to why they traded Diontae Johnson. This passing game is George Pickens or bust right now.

Cardinals at Bills: The Almost Upset of the Week

I said in my Week 1 predictions that I could easily see Arizona winning this as an upset and referendum on Buffalo getting rid of Stefon Diggs. But even when the Cardinals went up 10, I wasn’t that worried as I noticed the Cardinals had the ball for 13 of the first 15 minutes. Buffalo just needed the ball.

Josh Allen was facing a no-name defense, so he didn’t need big-name receivers. He had plenty enough around him, but I was surprised that Dalton Kincaid only had an 11-yard catch. But I was confident in rookie Keon Coleman (51 yards led team in receiving) having an impressive debut against this secondary to alleviate some concerns after the team let the Chiefs get Xavier Worthy at No. 28. That could still be a huge regret, but Coleman was always going to produce this week.

By game’s end, Buffalo even pulled ahead in time of possession, so no big deal. But the Cardinals still made this interesting thanks to a 96-yard kickoff return touchdown in the fourth quarter. I’m not a big fan of the dynamic kickoff so far, but it is producing better field position and already a touchdown like that.

But in a 31-28 game, the Bills nearly botched this badly. They had a chance to put the game away but Allen was stuffed on a 3rd-and-2 run. Instead of going for the 4th-and-3 at the Arizona 21 at the 2-minute warning, they kicked the short field goal and settled for a 34-28 lead with Arizona having all three timeouts to drive for the winning touchdown.

To make it worse, the Bills’ kickoff went out of bounds, so Murray only needed 60 yards. He’s done far harder before, including against Buffalo in 2020 (“Hail Murray”). When you have Allen, you should be going for that fourth down. The 6-point lead is one of the worst places to be. At least if it was still a 31-28 game, you can count on Arizona to probably kick a field goal instead of go for a fourth down.

But the Cardinals had their chances, and it’s my understanding rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. was left wide open on the drive for a potential touchdown, but Kyler didn’t see it or didn’t think to throw to him. The drive ended with Murray throwing incomplete on 4th-and-7 at the Buffalo 29 with 26 seconds left.

Crisis adverted – barely. But the Bills will need to clean some things up in Miami this week, and Allen reportedly has a left hand injury that he suffered on one of his touchdown runs. Let that sink in.

Vikings at Giants: Wrong Improbable New York QB Breakout Year

I expected both of these teams to be terrible this year, and I still believe that’s highly possible. But one of my worst picks this week was the Giants as the upset special at home. I got a little too focused on what happened in 2022, ignoring 2023, and the fact that Daniel Jones is just not the answer. At least with Darnold, we haven’t seen him fail as many times, and he has some solid talent around him in a pass-friendly offense.

Darnold started this game on fire, then the team had little reason to score more as Jones wasn’t getting the job done. But this pick-6, while a very athletic play by the defender, is a good example of why this season needs to be Jones’ last in New York.

And what the hell were those jerseys? Alas, Andrew Van Ginkel is apparently the master of the fast interception.

Raiders at Chargers: Can Jim Harbaugh Go 5-1 in the AFC West?

Coach Jim Harbaugh made his NFL return with a win, 22-10 over the Raiders. He came here to make Justin Herbert’s life easier, and so far, it worked. The Chargers had just 11 first downs, the fewest in the Herbert era. They gave Herbert 170 rushing yards while he only threw for 144, another rarity.

The passing game is a work in progress with these young receivers, but how about J.K. Dobbins rushing for 135 yards in his team debut? He even ripped off a 61-yard play. Great to see after injuries robbed him in Baltimore from more success.

But mission successful in not blowing a two-score lead in the fourth quarter. However, the Chargers got some help from new Raiders coach Antonio Pierce, a hire I was not supportive for. In his first game without the interim tag, he made a big mistake in a 16-10 game with 7:15 left. The Raiders faced a 4th-and-1 at the Los Angeles 43 and decided to punt.

I can understand the old-school philosophy there as that’s what you used to do in those situations. But with under half a quarter left, you’re looking at maybe one more possession before you start relying on all your timeouts. You also have to remember that converting 4th-and-1 is in your favor (> 50%). I think punting was a big mistake, and you have to think it won’t be the last time we see this from Pierce, the big flaw in hiring a defensive-minded coach who only sees the old ways of the game he played.

To make it worse, the defense he relies on gave up a 92-yard touchdown drive thanks to the big Dobbins run. Gardner Minshew was picked to end it, but he’s probably still their best choice for a quarterback for the rest of the year despite only 10 points in Los Angeles.

But with the way the Raiders and Broncos look, who says Harbaugh can’t steal a game against the Chiefs and possibly go 5-1 in the division to fuel a playoff berth as a wild card? That was one of my main thoughts on the Chargers all along, but after Week 1, I feel even better about it.

Broncos at Seahawks: Sean Payton on His Week 1 Shit Again

The Seahawks are going to have some elite defensive stats in this one, the debut and first win for coach Mike Macdonald. But for the second year in a row, Sean Payton went into a Week 1 and watched his quarterback put on a dink-and-dunk performance that was literally for the record books.

Fewest Passing Yards by Number of Completions in NFL history (1950-2024)

After Russell Wilson had a record-low 177 passing yards on 27 completions against the Raiders last year, rookie Bo Nix did him one better and had just 138 yards on 26 completions. That’s the fewest passing yards in a game with more than 25 completions in NFL history.

This was rough, and Nix could have easily had more than the two picks he threw as Seattle dropped several. But it’s not like he had any real help out there other than his defense coming up with a pair of safeties, something you almost never see. But Nix ended up leading the Broncos with 35 rushing yards, including a late touchdown that made it mildly interesting at 26-20.

Geno Smith had some mistakes, but he also had a 34-yard touchdown run that he couldn’t possibly have done last year when he was playing hurt. When it came to icing the game with a late third-down pass to deny Nix getting a shot at a game-winning drive, Smith found Tyler Lockett for 9 yards to end things.

Enough to be encouraged about for Seattle, but we really need to see this defense play a quarterback who knows what they’re doing. Granted, there may not be a ton of those in the league right now. But even Jacoby Brissett will be a step up in competition in New England next week.

Started to get a sense of how Nix completed over 77% of his passes at Oregon last year to set an NCAA single-season record. He’ll take literally any short completion you will give him no matter how fruitless the gain is. But you can’t end his career after one game. He’s just a rookie, albeit an older one.

Commanders at Buccaneers: It’s Probably Not 2012 in Washington Again

I guess the hope all along with Washington repeating its 2012 season success with Robert Griffin III would be a surprisingly good season from Jayden Daniels. While he did make me very happy in his debut with a 2-touchdown performance on the ground (+2200 odds), it wasn’t the kind of passing performance you wanted to see. Terry McLaurin (17 yards) barely did a thing. More than half of Daniels’ 184 passing yards went to running backs.

But he ran the ball 16 times for 88 yards and will be viable at the goal line. He just better tighten that helmet as it came loose a couple of times and nearly cost him that second touchdown. I’d be quite bitter right now if that happened.

But Dan Quinn’s defense was no real improvement on last year when they were the worst in the league under Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio. Baker Mayfield picked them apart with 24-of-30 for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns. Mike Evans caught two scores and still has WR1 skills.

Tampa had one of the most thorough and complete performances of any team this week. Not that it should be that surprising against a rebuilt Washington team with a long way to go. But it’s a very good start with Detroit up next.

Next week: Are we peaking early with Bills-Dolphins on Thursday night? Saints-Cowboys could be interesting, or it could be a blowout. Either way, we get to test the Saints right away against a non-Carolina opponent, so that’s great. Bengals-Chiefs loses some luster with the New England upset, but it’d be typical NFL for Cincinnati to win that one to avoid an 0-2 start. That Chicago offense isn’t ready for prime time, so good luck in Houston. Ditto with Kirk Cousins going to Philly on his least favorite day of the week.