2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 3

I don’t think I’m going to like this season very much. You know there are some shenanigans going on when the first 3-0 teams were the Steelers, Vikings, and Seahawks. None of those teams were favored to even make the playoffs this year.

The Chiefs got there too on Sunday night, but after winning their eighth one-score game during this 9-game winning streak, it doesn’t look like this will be anywhere close to the strongest Kansas City team yet. Might even be the complete opposite.

There are six teams who were in the playoffs last year, including both No. 1 seeds, that are sitting at 1-2: Dolphins, Ravens, Browns, Cowboys, Rams, and 49ers.

Big favorites continue to go down at alarming rates. On Sunday, the four teams who were favored by 6.5 points were 0-4 SU (Buccaneers, Browns, 49ers, and Raiders). There were 18 such losses all of last season and 14 in 2022. We’re already up to seven this season.

Things are just crazy right now, injuries are piling up for many teams, and it’s not like blown leads/comebacks are largely responsible for these results. There were only six games with a comeback opportunity in Week 3, and only two games had a fourth-quarter lead change.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

49ers at Rams: Game of the Week

I thought the Eagles had the worst blown lead in the fourth quarter by a team this season after what they did in each phase against the Falcons on Monday night. But the 49ers may have found a way to outdo it here.

First, Brock Purdy was fantastic in this game. He finished 22-of-30 for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns (all to Jauan Jennings), but that doesn’t account for 6 drops. Ronnie Bell should take a permanent seat on the bench with his Limas Sweed ass hands. Purdy even ran 10 times and looked as mobile as ever as he tried to get the job done for his offense in a game without Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel. His only real mistake was a strip-sack before halftime, but that was right after Trent Williams momentarily left the game with an injury, and it didn’t lead to any points for the Rams.

The short-yardage running game hurt them in the fourth quarter when Jordan Mason couldn’t convert a 3rd-and-short, causing the 49ers to settle for a field goal and 24-14 lead. Later, a holding penalty ruined a drive, but Jake Moody could have made a 55-yard field goal with 2:43 to effectively ice it as a 10-point game, but he missed it. I thought he gained some confidence last year with some big kicks in the playoffs, but this was a big miss in a season where everyone seems to be crushing it from deep.

Then the defense had its letdowns with Matthew Stafford, who didn’t have Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua, using Tutu Atwell for deep balls to quickly get in scoring range. A 50-yard pass to Atwell set up a Kyren Williams touchdown and it was 24-24 with 1:51 left.

Purdy again did his job on the next drive, but Bell had a horrible drop down the field that set up 3rd-and-10. The Rams forced a punt, and the special teams further contributed to the downfall with a 38-yard punt return by the Rams with 42 seconds left.

The 49ers somehow had three defensive penalties on one snap with the pass interference moving the ball halfway to the 25. You can basically run the clock down there, which the Rams did, and they kicked a 37-yard field goal with 0:02 seconds left to take a 27-24 lead. A shocking comeback and total failure by the 49ers in so many ways, and yet somehow still appropriate for what we’ve come to expect from a Kyle Shanahan team.

I must say the 49ers looked like they had something cooking on their lateral play to end things. Definitely one of the better attempts you’ll see at trying to go 70 yards in one play.

A loss would have buried the season for the Rams (1-2). This loss doesn’t bury the 49ers (1-2), but it could haunt them for seeding. Seattle getting off to a 3-0 start isn’t ideal either, but the teams will meet in Seattle on a Thursday night in Week 6 after the 49ers have some winnable home games with the Patriots and Cardinals.

But the 49ers absolutely wasted one of the best games Purdy will give them this year. The loss will cause others to ignore how well he did with all the injuries they had too. Just a rough day all around if you’re a 49ers fan.

Chiefs at Falcons: Old Hat

I think from 2018-22, the Kansas City Chiefs were the main attraction in the NFL. They played the most entertaining style of offense, and they were involved in the biggest and best games of this era. They were a spectacle to watch.

But the 2023-24 Chiefs? I can see why so many people have turned to hating them, and it’s not just sour grapes over losing big games to them. They’ve become annoying to watch in a Spygate-era Patriots way in that it seems like every game is close, they leave a lot of doubt on the field, and they seem like they still find a way to win these games.

It happened again Sunday night in Atlanta, and while the Chiefs (-3) still covered with the 22-17 win, it was the kind of game that will only fuel the doubters who want to see someone else win the Super Bowl this year.

For the third week in a row, Patrick Mahomes threw a braindead interception. This time it was in the end zone on a 17-play opening drive, so the over bettors were already pissed. The only explanation is Justin Simmons just has that Mahomes voodoo that Ty Law once had for Peyton Manning, because he did it to Mahomes again despite changing teams from Denver to Atlanta.

Fortunately, that was the only turnover the Chiefs had in this game as they couldn’t afford another. They even avoided the obligatory fumble for a change, and Mahomes did not take any sacks. I’m not sure what the snap counts were yet, but the Chiefs did start Wanya Morris at left tackle over rookie Kingsley Suamataia, who was benched in the fourth quarter last week.

However, Travis Kelce really is starting to look washed up as he had just 30 yards on 4 catches, and he hurt the team with a third-down drop in the fourth quarter when they tried to add to the small lead. Kelce is seeing more action in his commercials and new FX series than he does on the field these days.

You combine Kelce possibly falling off a cliff with the injuries to Hollywood Brown and running back Isiah Pacheco, and the Chiefs aren’t offering a whole lot on offense outside of Rashee Rice, who continues to look fantastic as the new No. 1 option. He had 12 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown, accounting for half of Mahomes’ 217 yards and the only gain longer than 17 yards for the offense on the night.

But the Chiefs keep trying to spread the wealth, get other people involved, and their short-yardage offense hasn’t been too impressive. For all the hype about their interior line, you’d think they would do a better job of just pounding it in there.

But the back-to-back three-and-out drives in the fourth quarter do look like an offense that just isn’t what it used to be. Kelce would have held onto that ball in the past. On a late 3rd-and-2, Mahomes looked like he had multiple options on crossing routes, but he chose Xavier Worthy, and the rookie just stopped running on the play to cause an ugly incompletion with 2:26 left. I don’t think JuJu would have done that two years ago, and I know Sammy Watkins wouldn’t have back in the day.

The offense kept giving Atlanta chances to answer with a touchdown the way Kirk Cousins delivered Monday night in Philadelphia. But despite getting three chances in the fourth quarter, Cousins couldn’t get the job done as the Falcons dealt with more pressure from Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, and some injured offensive linemen made it tougher as does Cousins’ lack of mobility. There was a 3rd-and-2 “scramble” in the game where any young, mobile quarterback would have picked it up, but that’s just not happening for Cousins at this stage of his career. But that play was a good example of why the stationary pocket passer is such a dying breed in the NFL.

The referees didn’t help Atlanta much either. Yep, the officials were back in the spotlight at the end of a Kansas City game, and it was more appropriate this time compared to last week against the Bengals. Down 22-17 with just over 4:00 left, Cousins tried to find tight end Kyle Pitts in the end zone, and the Chiefs got away with some obvious pass interference. No flag.

He arrived early, he hugged Pitts, and he didn’t try to play the ball. That should have been an easy call to make. Then on fourth down, I don’t think that one was interference, but some of course will say that because it’s the Chiefs and this is the weekly thing we do now. But again, that comes back to never blowing teams out and leaving this type of doubt.

Then when the Falcons got the ball back with 2:26 left, you saw the make-up calls in full effect from the refs. The Falcons got a phantom DPI flag on Trent McDuffie for 11 yards. Then there was a horse collar tackle penalty, which looked legitimate enough, and that was another 15 yards. So, the calls most certainly don’t always go to Kansas City’s benefit.

But that horse collar was the last time the Falcons moved the chains. I think they got caught up playing the clock with Mahomes on the other side, they wanted to score late as possible, and they forgot to call good plays that make use of Cousins’ abilities. They brought in Tyler Allgeier for a big 3rd-and-1 run, and the Chiefs stopped him for no gain. Neither team wanting to run the QB sneak is a problem in this situation.

The Falcons then tried another 4th-and-1 run with Bijan Robinson, but he was stuffed for a 3-yard loss with 51 seconds left. Ballgame. That’s four plays in a row where the Falcons didn’t bother to let Cousins throw anything more than a horizontal pass.

Mahomes then did a smart move on the first down by waiting several seconds before he finally took a knee. The other knees were much quicker, and he nearly injured himself on one, but he timed it just right to where the Chiefs didn’t have to punt the ball back.

The Chiefs have now won 9 straight games by a combined 54 points, an average margin of victory of 6.0 points per game. That’s the tiniest margin of victory among the 119 teams in NFL history who had a winning streak of at least 9 games.

It’s not like this is uncharted territory for the Chiefs. In 2020, they tied the NFL record with 7 straight wins by 1-to-8 points. They also won 10 games in a row that year by an average of just 8.9 points per game. Only the 1999 Colts with Peyton Manning (8.7) had a lower margin of victory for a double-digit game winning streak.

The Chiefs can take that record next if they beat the Chargers next week by a slim margin. That’s usually what they do to that team.

It’s usually what they do to everyone these days. But that run in 2020 with the close wins was answered with some playoff blowouts, including their 31-9 loss in Super Bowl 55. It also led to a 3-4 start in 2021 during some of the worst losses of the Mahomes era like 38-20 to Buffalo and 27-3 in Tennessee.

So, you do wonder if this team will hit some regression to the mean and start losing these close games or losing by bigger margins during this three-peat attempt. We have always talked about the Chiefs in the context of an elite offense, or in last year’s case, it was an elite defense. Through three games this year, they don’t particularly look elite on either side of the ball. In fact, they look a bit ordinary.

Still 3-0, but not the same spectacle as 2018-22. No longer must-see TV unless you’re into watching reruns of mediocre episodes of your favorite shows. Alas, with the way the rest of the league is playing to start this season, it still might be enough to make history in the end.

Ravens at Cowboys: Almost a Collapse

Is this what every big game in Jerry World is going to look like for Dallas now? The opponent piles up big plays and touchdowns, forcing Dak Prescott to just keep throwing for a ton of volume with no real shot at winning the game. It’s the third time in a row at home with the Packers in the playoffs, the Saints last week, and now the Ravens in this 28-25 final that was somehow a bigger blowout than that suggests, and still really close of a collapse for the Ravens.

Oh yes, I don’t think a win here absolves Baltimore that much for an 0-2 start. This game still reinforced some issues they have with holding leads as they lead the NFL in blown leads of multiple possessions since 2021. The Cowboys cut a 28-6 deficit into 28-25 and were just unfortunate that the defense couldn’t get them the ball back one more time.

The Ravens were explosive with big plays on the ground with Derrick Henry and through the air with Lamar Jackson completing 12 passes for 182 yards. But salting the game away was poorly done, Justin Tucker missed another easy field goal on a day where his new GOAT competition Brandon Aubrey nailed a 65-yard field goal, and you still question if the Ravens would ever dare use this strategy in January with 15 passes to 45 runs.

They absolutely should as I argued this offseason. But they have this obsession with turning Jackson into the passer he’s not and throwing the ball much more in those games when he’s clearly at his most comfortable in a game like this where he threw 15 passes and ran 14 times.

Jackson is now 21-1 against NFC opponents, because they just don’t know him the way his AFC foes (Chiefs, Steelers, Bills, etc.) do. It’s a unique challenge, and I’m not surprised the Cowboys failed it.

But it did get a little too close for comfort at the end there, and I’m not sure how Baltimore keeps letting this happen under John Harbaugh.

Chargers at Steelers: Felt More Like Ravens vs. Steelers

In 2011, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers faced Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers with Ben Roethlisberger struggling through a high-ankle sprain. Pittsburgh was a 3-point underdog, and Ben struggled with 3 interceptions in a 20-3 loss.

Fast forward to 2024, the second career meeting between Tomlin and Harbaugh, and the tables were turned. This time it was Justin Herbert coming in as a 3-point underdog on a high-ankle sprain against an elite defense. He ended up losing 20-10 and didn’t even finish the game.

It’s not a good formula for success, but incredibly, these quarterbacks started a combined 19-for-19 in this game, the best in any game since 1991. It was a ton of short stuff with Fields being safe and Herbert keeping that leg safe for as long as he could. Neither running game was getting it done against these tough defenses.

But in a 10-10 game in the third quarter, the floodgates opened up on the Chargers. Herbert tried to capitalize on Fields’ first turnover of the year after Bud Dupree came down with an interception that was tipped around several players. But Herbert was sacked, and he hurt himself on that one and couldn’t return to the game.

Keep in mind the Chargers already lost edge rusher Joey Bosa in this game. They’d later lose both offensive tackles (Rashawn Slater and rookie Joe Alt) as well. T.J. Watt was getting shut out by Alt, but once those floodgates opened in the third, the Chargers couldn’t stop it. Taylor Heinicke tried to finish the game for Herbert, but he took 3 sacks on 5 dropbacks (!) as the Steelers allowed minus-5 yards of offense in the entire second half.

Fields technically gets credit for a game-winning drive in this one to break the 10-10 tie early with Chris Boswell’s 38-yard field goal, but the Chargers sure did help that along with three penalties for 34 yards on third downs alone to extend the drive.

My hopes of seeing how Fields would perform in a game where a quarterback like Herbert could force him to score in the fourth quarter to win it were dashed when Herbert couldn’t go anymore. Frankly, they probably made a huge mistake in playing him at all this week since this was always a high possibility, and they have the Chiefs up next, a much more important divisional game with the Chiefs looking vulnerable too.

But Fields also put the game away with a 55-yard touchdown pass over the middle to Calvin Ausitn, who showed off his speed. It was the best game Fields played this year by far, and one of the best wins of his career with ease.

I’m still on board with thinking Russell Wilson should get a chance to start in this offense too, but the Steelers are seeing more of Fields each week and he is getting better. The points still aren’t really there, but it hasn’t mattered when you’re giving up 28 points in 3 games.

Eagles at Saints: Let Them Off the Hook

The dumbest team to win this week was definitely Philadelphia. It was evident early on that this was not going to be a high-scoring week for the Saints like the last few have been. Even after starting the game with a field goal, the Saints didn’t have a drive that gained more than 13 yards until the fourth quarter.

Incredibly, this game was still a 3-0 Saints lead going into the fourth quarter despite a total near 50. This is also because the Eagles kept passing up makeable field goals and failing on fourth down. Jalen Hurts had a frustrating game as he completed most of his passes for 311 yards, but he also had multiple turnovers, 4th-down failures, and took 4 sacks.

But it was a game without A.J. Brown that soon became a game without DeVonta Smith too after a dirty-looking hit, and Lane Johnson was also knocked out at right tackle.

But the Eagles did have Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 147 yards and two touchdowns. They also had tight end Dallas Goedert, who had a monster game with 10 catches for 170 yards. Goedert made the critical play on a 3rd-and-16 on the game-winning drive when he got free for 61 yards.

You had three Saints defenders run into each other on the play. A natural pick by the Eagles neutralized the first one, but then veteran corner Marshon Lattimore (No. 23) ran right into his teammate and that’s why Goedert was so wide open. It was like watching the early and mid-2010s Saints on defense.

The Saints are the only NFL team not to win a game after trailing in the fourth quarter since 2023. That was supposed to be a strength of bringing Derek Carr to New Orleans. He had a go-ahead touchdown pass to Chris Olave in this one with 2:03 left, but the Saints missed the crucial 2-point conversion that would have made it 15-7. Instead, the Eagles got the 8 points with Barkley scoring both with 1:01 left.

Carr still had time and a timeout to force overtime with a field goal, but similar to Hurts against Atlanta last week, he took a risk quickly and was intercepted to end the game at 15-12. After leading 15 straight scoring drives to begin 2024, Carr couldn’t even get the team to 15 points in this one.

It was Week 3 last year in Green Bay when the Saints blew a 17-0 lead and missed a clutch field goal that really destroyed their playoff hopes in the end. Let’s hope this game doesn’t set them on a similar path as this was a huge outcome in the NFC to get the Eagles to 2-1 while those teams like Dallas and San Francisco keep losing.

Texans at Vikings: Wiped the Flores with My MVP’s Offense

I guess all that’s left is for the Vikings to start 4-0 by beating up my Super Bowl pick (Packers) next week too. They already won three games in a row against teams I thought would beat them, especially the 49ers and Texans, and they’re only getting stronger after taking down Houston 34-7.

C.J. Stroud is usually very hard to intercept, but he had a pair in this game, he only led one touchdown drive, and he also lost 42 yards on 4 sacks. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores had them flustered, and I don’t think it would have made any difference if running back Joe Mixon was active.

Sam Darnold didn’t have all the big plays this week, but he was smart with the ball, effective, and he threw 4 touchdowns out of it. He’s holding the ball and still making good decisions. We’ll just have to see if he continues it into October or if he starts seeing ghosts again.

But between the schedule looking legit and the team controlling these games on their way to 3-0, I’m dumbfounded by this start. Just never seemed logical that a team that lost Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter would get better on both sides of the ball. Not to mention WR2 Jordan Addison has been out with an injury, and tight end T.J. Hockenson has yet to even play in 2024.

They could theoretically get better. But I’m still not ready to crown the Vikings as the new flash in the pan in the NFC. Probably should get on that Kevin O’Connell for Coach of the Year campaign though.

Broncos at Buccaneers: Not “Bo Picks” This Week

This felt like a trap game to me, so the only bet I had on it was for Bo Nix to throw a pick. He’s had multiple picks in both games, and you had to figure the Bucs would send some heat and get him to mess up in a game where he should have needed to score a fair amount to win.

But man, that was way off. The 0-2 Broncos went across country to pants the 2-0 Buccaneers in their building in a 26-7 final. Nix was in control early, he avoided the turnovers and sacks, and he may have led the Broncos in rushing once again if not for a backup (Badie) breaking a 43-yard run.

That’s an encouraging start. As for the Buccaneers, so much for the Baker Mayfield hype. After Aidan Hutchinson had 4.5 sacks of Mayfield for Detroit last week, Mayfield went down 7 times in this one as the Bucs are struggling up front. Mayfield completed 25 passes but for only 163 yards, which ties Joe Montana for the fewest yards ever in a game with exactly 25 completions. A little weird it came in a game against Denver as we just saw Denver set that record for the fewest yards in games with 26 completions (Nix in Week 1) and 27 completions (Russell Wilson in Week 1, 2023).

Maybe it’s just a Denver thing and it goes both ways. But definitely an upset I wasn’t ready for as the Bucs were just never a threat the whole game.

Bears at Colts: Comically Inept

I know Caleb Williams (2) and Anthony Richardson (6) came into this game with 8 starts between them as the youngest quarterbacks in the NFL. But I still found myself during the third quarter thinking of how this would have been Jay Cutler vs. Andrew Luck a decade ago, and that was just more interesting to me. Maybe these two are the future, but right now, they are raw as hell and I question how much help they’re getting from their play callers.

Both had multiple completions of 40-plus yards for the highlight tapes, but both missed easy throws and had multiple interceptions too. It’s a good thing for Richardson that Jonathan Taylor rushed for 110 yards and two scores to really put the game away. Williams ended up throwing the ball 52 times and gained 363 yards, but some of those yards were hollow like his Hail Mary completion to D.J. Moore before halftime that gained 44 yards but was stopped at the 1-yard line.

But the Bears again barely averaged 2.0 yards per carry, proving that the offensive line is dog shit. The Colts couldn’t stop the run at all in Weeks 1-2, but they had few problems in this one. Chicago’s play-calling in the red zone was also horrible, including a ridiculous sequence in the first half where they came away with no points.

Good on Williams to survive a game with this many throws and keep the sacks down to 4, but he’ll still have to do better than that. Still, I’m not sure Richardson is even capable of a game like this in the NFL. He’s throwing for 40 yards or giving you nothing with his arm right now.

Good on the Colts to see Laiatu Latu come up with a strip-sack in a big moment in the fourth quarter when Williams had the ball in a 14-9 game.

That’s why you draft someone like Latu the way Indy did in this offensive-driven class.

Lions at Cardinals: The Shootout That Wasn’t

I was really hoping for a shootout in this one, and it looked promising when both offenses marched right down the field for touchdowns. But there was very little after that as Kyler Murray struggled to throw for 100 yards until late in the second half when the Cardinals were still desperately down 20-10.

It could have been closer as the refs had a costly mistake at the 2-minute warning in the first half when it sure looked like the Cardinals produced a defensive return touchdown. But they tried to say the 2:00 warning hit, but it appeared the ball was snapped at 2:01. Huge turnaround there as the Lions turned that drive into a touchdown on a nifty designed lateral play from Amon-Ra St. Brown to Jahmyr Gibbs.

The Lions never scored the rest of the way, and it was just a matter of holding on as the Cardinals couldn’t run with James Conner, Trey McBride suffered a concussion, and Murray was floating a lot of bad passes to Marvin Harrison Jr. Just not an efficient offensive performance at all after the first two weeks were so good.

The Detroit defense looks improved this year, but it was still up to the offense to run out the clock in a 20-13 game. Goff found St. Brown on a third-and-12, then he iced the game with an 8-yard scramble.

But not many offensive fireworks to see here – keeping up the 2024 brand for the league.

Packers at Titans: Malik Willis Is Better Than Will Levis?

The revenge game is usually a tired narrative, but this time it really worked out. Not that Malik Willis should feel like the Titans did him dirty. He really struggled when he was with them, but in playing for Green Bay these last two weeks, he has done an incredible job of managing the game.

This week was even better than last as Willis passed for a career-high 202 yards on just 19 throws, and he ran for 73 yards and a touchdown. A true dual-threat performance. He also did it this week with much less help from his running backs on the ground unlike last week against the Colts.

To make things sweeter for Willis, he thrived while Will Levis continues to show that his version of “Big Dick Energy” is to play like there’s zero consequences for your actions just because you’re packing a hammer. Levis took 8 sacks and had 3 more turnovers as the Packers are getting splash plays galore to start this season under their new defensive coordinator.

With the hope that Jordan Love is close to returning, my Super Bowl pick of Green Bay is still looking decent. They know they have a viable backup option in a pinch with Willis, and we’ll see a return to more passing when Love gets back. The defense in the meantime just needs to keep this up as they’ve been very impressive in creating negative plays.

Giants at Browns: Please, Call More Plays Where Deshaun Watson Gets Sacked

Okay, the spread never should have been Browns -6.5, because this team is just not that good with the albatross that is Deshaun Watson at quarterback. He’s actually worse than Daniel Jones right now, and he was certainly worse in this game as he took a whopping 8 sacks.

The Giants fumbled the opening kickoff and gave up a short field touchdown to the Browns, but that Cleveland offense did almost nothing the entire rest of the game. Those fumbles were also the only thing keeping this from being a New York blowout as Danny Dimes did actually deliver on his end. He threw two touchdowns to rookie Malik Nabers, who looks very much like the real deal, and he cut down on sacks and turnovers in a big way this week.

I actually feel bad for Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski as he knows he is likely stuck for Watson for a couple more years. That’s assuming it doesn’t cost him his job. I wouldn’t blame him if he purposely called plays with minimal protection and exposed Watson to more hits in the hopes that he gets injured, and they can keep him off the field that way. The guy was literally just accused of rape once again in a new lawsuit. He doesn’t get any benefit of the doubt, and I don’t know how this team will get through a season if they have to keep playing him when Jameis Winston would obviously outperform him.

Dolphins at Seahawks: Not the Most Unlikely 3-0 Start

Sure, most people probably didn’t see the Seahawks starting 3-0 this year. But with the schedule of quarterbacks, it was very reasonable. They’ve drawn Bo Nix in his rookie debut, a New England passing game that doesn’t want to exist with Jacoby Brissett, and then a break this week with Skylar Thompson starting for an injured Tua Tagovailoa (concussion).

We know Geno Smith and his weapons are good enough to go 9-8. Mike Macdonald just had to improve the defense, and who knows. But we won’t really start to see the defense tested until Week 4 against Detroit.

But this game, it was a 24-3 laugher as the Dolphins were literally showing their ass on the field.

Boy, that stunk. Miami was 1-of-12 on third down, and Thompson took 5 sacks before leaving the game with an injury. It could be Tim Boyle time in Miami next week, or maybe Tyler Huntley who just signed. At what point do we ask if Mike McDaniel and his staff are doing something wrong with their quarterbacks if they’re this brittle that you have to start three in three games? I thought that was a historic outlier when they did it in 2022, but it might happen again here.

All the speed in the world doesn’t mean a damn thing with the wrong player at quarterback.

Panthers at Raiders: Bryce Young Was the Problem After All

Guess I should have bet the house on Andy Dalton after all. He was my No. 1 prop pick this week, I picked the Panthers (+6.5) to win outright, but even then I never expected this 36-22 outcome that completely disproves the idea that Bryce Young had no protection or weapons in Carolina.

The problem was the shortcomings of the quarterback. Similar to last year when Dalton started a game in place of Young for the Panthers, he threw for over 300 yards. But this time he did it much more efficiently, and before you say it was just the Raiders, check again how Maxx Crosby and company fared against Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson to start this season.

Dalton is now the only quarterback this season to throw for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in a game. Crazy, right? He got a career game out of Diontae Johnson with 122 yards and a touchdown. Even the running game showed up as Chuba Hubbard rushed for 114 yards.

The Panthers finally ended their 20-game streak of never taking a snap with a fourth-quarter lead. I don’t think Dalton can go too far with this team, but for one game against the Raiders, he was electric. About time we watch a veteran with more than a decade of experience just sling it on these defenses.

There’s almost none of that in the NFL right now, so I fully support Dalton starting more games while Young “sits and learns” from it all. But this game probably did nuke his trade value even more.

Next week: Cowboys-Giants on TNF? Oh, it’s really over for Dallas if they’re going to lose to Danny Dimes next. Saints-Falcons has some importance in the NFC South, Andy Dalton can stack wins against the Bengals, the Steelers can harass Anthony Richardson to start 4-0, the Vikings-Packers game could somehow be the Game of the Week if Jordan Love returns, and let’s just hope Justin Herbert can return for the Kansas City game. Bills-Ravens a big one on Sunday night I get to preview later this week. Another Monday night doubleheader (not a fan) too, and Seahawks-Lions definitely more interesting than Titans-Dolphins (no one cares).

NFL 2024 Week 3 Predictions: “Ravens Can’t Go 0-3, Can They?” Edition

I’m still up at 6 AM since I did my WNBA 2024 Playoff Preview, something I’d never imagined I would be doing, but here we are. It’s crazy to think they’re going to start the playoffs on an NFL Sunday, one that could be very good too.

I always enjoy Week 3 as some teams have given us wildly different data points in the first two games, and we have to figure out which one to believe in more. But the game I’m really interested in is Cowboys vs. Ravens as both teams could really use it after last week, but the Ravens need it even more to avoid starting 0-3.

Since 2002, 103 teams have started 0-3 and only the 2018 Texans (11-5) won more than 9 games and made the playoffs. One out of 103. That’s also 0-for-16 since the playoff expansion in 2020 and 0-for-10 since the 17th game was added in 2021. The Ravens better show up for that one after coming up short these first two weeks.

But can you trust anything this season with the way big-name injuries are already piling up? Quarterback injuries have me so confused on who to pick in GB-TEN and LAC-PIT this weekend. But the number of top receiving targets who have already been injured this season is crazy and not helping the offensive drought.

But hey, at least a 6-point favorite covered for the first time all season on Thursday night.

This Week’s Articles:

NFL 2024 Week 3 Predictions

The Jets looked very good on Thursday night. Before that game, favorites of 5.5+ points were 0-7-2 ATS this year. Let’s see if the big favorites can dominate this weekend.

Last week, I hedged on 6 games where I picked a different spread winner from the moneyline winner. That paid off as I was 6-0 ATS on those games. Not repeating that with this slate as I only did it twice, and that’s only because of an injury in one game.

I’m counting on the Browns to shit all over Daniel Jones. The Browns don’t have a takeaway yet this season, so let’s get some regression there.

I’m trusting Anthony Richardson to finally win a game he plays the majority of snaps in for the Colts. He’s 0-4 so far, but I’m banking on the Chicago offensive line being unable to give them a good running game against that poor run defense of the Colts.

Line keeps creeping to Minnesota, but I don’t care. Still trusting my Texans and Stroud this week.

Love the Saints to keep scoring a lot and I don’t think the Eagles keep up without A.J. Brown.

I really hope Justin Herbert can play in Pittsburgh, because I want to see what happens when a quarterback who can score points and actually put heat on Justin Fields to do anything in the fourth quarter. He’s had it easy these two games. But with Herbert on a high-ankle sprain, the Steelers might get a big break if he can’t move well. But Joe Alt is going to have his hands full with T.J. Watt. I’ll be watching this one closely.

Expecting Tampa Bay to make things miserable for Bo Nix again.

GB-TEN is the other annoying QB injury game this week. Is Jordan Love playing or not? I’m not exactly feeling a Malik Willis Revenge Game, but the Packers have been forcing turnovers, and Will Levis seems willing to try new creative ways to cough them up. I cautiously take the Packers here.

Going upset with Carolina, though really I think Andy Dalton’s passing overs and the game going over 40 (both teams score 20+) are the best bets there. Might be an actual passing fest between Dalton and Minshew as neither team can run. But look for Dalton to immediately improve the passing game after Bryce Young was benched. Not entirely sure why I’m taking them to win too but I do like +6.5 for the spread.

I don’t believe in Skylar Thompson, so it’s a chance for Mike Macdonald’s defense to eat up at home. Seahawks by 5+ I hope.

Not liking what I’m seeing out of Detroit so far, and that Arizona offense is fun as hell. Upset pick there but it should be a good game. Tight one in the 4Q. Possibly OT.

It’s not like we haven’t seen quarterbacks go into Dallas and light them up. This is on Lamar Jackson to play well. The season is almost teetering early here at 0-2. Something still feels off with the Dallas offense as they lost Tony Pollard and TE Jake Ferguson was injured in Week 1. Not much that’s reliable outside of CeeDee Lamb.

Is anyone not hurt in 49ers-Rams? Meh, Rams already look cooked with these injuries. Just give me the 49ers.

Preview link above for Chiefs-Falcons. Can be a good one. I think Mahomes throws a lot more this week without Pacheco.

Don’t like the way the Jaguars are playing this year. Bills seem to be pretty strong and can win in a variety of ways right now. More interested in the later game.

Did a preview on that one too in Cincy. I think a healthy Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase should lead to Burrow’s best game this year against a terrible defense. But I’m still trusting the Commanders to cover that big of a spread. Shrink the game with long drives again. Avoid those pesky turnovers the Bengals are usually good at getting.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 2

The season where Derek Carr turned into 2007 Tom Brady and held off Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield for the MVP nearly broke me.

I’m trying to keep the big picture in mind for the 2024 NFL season, but after an upset-heavy Sunday where a lot of offenses struggled again, I’m skeptical about what’s to come. This could be a season like 2021 where no one is truly great, and you end up with a Super Bowl between No. 4 seeds.

Though, it probably won’t be the Bengals vs. Rams again as both teams are 0-2 and not looking great. But even the Ravens are 0-2, easily the biggest surprise in that group as you had to think a home game with the Raiders was a given, right?

But nothing is a lock. In fact, the three biggest favorites by the point spread are 0-3 this season. Those were all favorites of 7.5 points or more, including the Bengals last week against New England. Teams favored by that much in Weeks 1-2 were 30-1 SU since 2018. The only other seasons in the 16-game era where three favorites lost this quickly were 1978 and 2003. Those seasons still finished with a traditional Super Bowl rematch (Steelers vs. Cowboys) and the Patriots were in another one (albeit against Jake Delhomme).

Get your Chiefs vs. Saints Super Bowl LIX futures in now? Eh, long way to go, but it was a wake-up call day for a lot of teams. Following 10 games in the early window was insane too. The NFL should really rethink that as the 3-game late slate is not good enough.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bengals at Chiefs: Game of the Week

When Joe Burrow says the Bengals are built specifically to beat the Chiefs, I wonder what he means exactly. On the offensive side of the ball, I don’t really see it. At least not with the current makeup of the Bengals without Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, and with Tee Higgins injured.

But Sunday went against type for the Bengals as they used their tight ends the most they ever have in a game with Burrow, copying some elements of how the Ravens had success with Isaiah Likely in Week 1 using multiple tight ends. When Mike Gesicki (91) and Drew Sample (28) are more than tripling Ja’Marr Chase in (35) in receiving yards, something’s up.

It almost worked out too, but Burrow did not hold up his end of the bargain. Much like in the two AFC Championship Games these teams played, he had a bad turnover in the fourth quarter. But this time it was a strip-sack returned for a touchdown while the Bengals led 22-17. That was huge with the Chiefs struggling to stay ahead of the Bengals in this game.

One could argue the Bengals bring out the worst in the Kansas City offense. In this game, they were able to hold Patrick Mahomes to 151 passing yards, the first time he’s ever been under 166 yards in a game he completed. He only threw it 25 times, but they also got two interceptions, including a brilliant one-handed catch late in the third quarter. Throw in the obligatory fumble from the Chiefs, and the Bengals were up 3-0 in turnovers with the ball before Burrow’s massive fumble.

But if we can back up, why did the Bengals not go for two on a touchdown that made it 22-17 with minutes left in the third? They should have tried to make it 24-17. But Evan McPherson missed the extra point, and that set us down a path that ultimately led to the Chiefs escaping with a 26-25 win. Things would have been different at 24-17. The fumble would only have tied the game, and so would a late field goal by the Chiefs as overtime would have been a possibility.

Going for the extra point was the first mistake, Burrow’s fumble was the second, and the third came on the next drive when Chase lost his cool and picked up a 15-yard flag from the refs. Instead of a 3rd-and-7, the Bengals faced a 3rd-and-22. They were able to salvage that drive for a field goal attempt, and McPherson redeemed himself with a 53-yard field goal to give the Bengals a 25-23 lead.

The Chiefs have a real problem right now with rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia being outmatched by an edge rusher on par with Trey Hendrickson. After Mahomes was sacked, the rookie tackle was also flagged for a hold that negated a 41-yard play to Travis Kelce, who only finished the game with a 5-yard swing catch.

Running out the final 6:57 would have been tough, but the Bengals were doing well until Burrow took another third-down sack and the team had to punt. The Chiefs had 2:35 to get a field goal, but it really felt like they came out of the two-minute warning with a lazy approach as if they weren’t down and this was really important.

A 1-yard run, a nonchalant throwaway, and just like that it was 3rd-and-9 where pressure forced a short throw to bring up 4th-and-6. Then the game got a little goofy. Mahomes made what should have been another game-winning type of play, finding Rashee Rice for 21 yards to the Cincinnati 34. Bang, there’s field goal range in the final 50 seconds with the Bengals down to one timeout.

But a lineman (not Kingsley) was flagged for illegal hands to the face, and it’s hard to say the call was anything but correct. Shades of 2023, the Chiefs were shooting themselves in the foot and had to convert a 4th-and-16. Mahomes threw deep for Rice, but it bounced incomplete off the defensive back’s head only for a flag to come in for pass interference on Daijahn Anthony, a 7th-round rookie who played 2 defensive snaps last week, and somehow he found himself defending the Chiefs’ best receiver on 4th-and-ballgame.

You’ve seen it, I’m sure. Was it not textbook pass interference?

You might get some leeway on defense in a Hail Mary situation, but this was not a Hail Mary throw. It was to a spot where Rice or Anthony could catch it, and Anthony clearly arrived early and tried to play the ball through the receiver by making contact high and to the head. I think they actually might let that one go if he jumped straight up with Rice, but he leaned into him too much and that’s a penalty.

Every little penalty in a Chiefs game turns into this big controversy now, but I see two penalties on crucial fourth-down plays, and both were correct. Had the first one not been called, the Chiefs are running the ball a couple of times and kicking a field goal from the same distance or even shorter than they ultimately did. You can’t just harp on the 4th-and-16 and ignore that the Bengals were fortunate they got a 4th-and-6 call that negated a conversion.

The Chiefs didn’t make it any easier on Harrison Butker, but from 51 yards out, he was money right down the middle again for the 26-25 escape to drop the Bengals to 0-2.

The prospects of the 2024 Chiefs fielding their strongest team yet are not looking great. They’re 2-0 against arguably two of their main AFC rivals, but is that saying a lot right now? New England beat Cincy and the Raiders just beat the Ravens.

I don’t doubt the Chiefs won’t be the toughest out for anyone in January, but you combine a Hollywood Brown injury that will keep him out of the regular season with this very unproductive Kelce start and add in a Pacheco injury at the end of this game, and things aren’t looking the greatest.

But I think if you’re just being honest as a Chiefs fan, you don’t want to see this Cincinnati team again this season. They just have that way of bringing out the worst with this offense.

Raiders at Ravens: Upset of the Year

In Week 3 last season, the Ravens lost 22-19 at home in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite against Gardner Minshew and the Colts. This year in Week 2, they lost 26-23 at home as an 8.5-point home favorite against Minshew and the Raiders. It’s the worst spread loss for the Ravens in the regular season in the Lamar Jackson era.

What is going on in Baltimore? They usually save these disappointments for January, but Justin Tucker is missing 50-yard field goals while the rest of the league crushes them, Derrick Henry struggled to get going for a long time Sunday, and once again Minshew led the game-winning drive Jackson couldn’t. Remember, Jackson didn’t have a single game-winning drive last year despite the team’s 13 wins in his MVP season.

This game was too close for comfort for a long time, but it sure looked like the Ravens had it in the bag when Henry scored to make it 23-13 with 12:11 left. But the Raiders got a field goal, Henry was called for a false start to knock the offense out of a 3rd-and-1 on a three-and-out, and the Raiders were bailed out on a 3rd-and-17 incompletion with a defensive pass interference penalty in the end zone.

We looked at the Kansas City DPI, so here’s the Baltimore one:

I don’t like the call, but I can kind of see the optics for why Davante Adams was able to sell it for a penalty. I see Stephens initiate the contact with his left hand on Adams, but they were both grabbing and fighting each other into the end zone. But at the last moment, Adams positions himself to dive for the ball while Stephens takes a different angle and bats at it. Maybe if did more to let Adams go to try going for the pick, they would have let it go.

But that is definitely a tough call. Adams caught a touchdown on the next snap and the game was tied with 3:54 left. Maxx Crosby immediately sacked Jackson to blow up another drive for a 3-and-out. Just a terrible drive for the Ravens there.

The special teams are usually great, but the Ravens hurt themselves with a 24-yard punt, so Minshew got to start at the Baltimore 43. The drive moved 23 yards and Daniel Carlson was good on a 38-yard field goal to take a 26-23 lead with 27 seconds left.

You still have a chance with Tucker’s leg despite recent misses, but the Ravens were out of timeouts. With one snap left and 59 yards away, I guess Lamar thought his best shot was to run for it and lateral, but I’m not sure why he didn’t keep going down the left sideline before starting that part of it.

The Raiders rushed for just 27 yards in this game while Baltimore had 151 thanks to that last play being their longest in the game. But this makes the Raiders the only NFL team since 1970 to win as an 8.5-point underdog while rushing for less than 30 yards and getting outrushed by over 115 yards.

Just a brutal loss for the Ravens (0-2). Was the loss of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to Seattle even bigger than expected? They were still blowing a handful of multi-score leads under Macdonald in 2022 as well, so maybe 2023 was the outlier here.

It’s not getting any easier too. The Ravens are in Dallas before hosting Buffalo the next two weeks. There’s at least precedent for them losing at home by a field goal to Minshew and losing to Mahomes, but they have to start showing more than they have so far in 2024.

Saints at Cowboys: Did Carr Absorb Brady’s Powers Before the Game?

Well, I was right about Derek Carr throwing an interception in Dallas. But that was only after he hung 41 points as the Saints opened with six straight touchdown drives, looking like some mixture of the 1999 Rams, 2007 Patriots, and the 2023 Packers team that went into Jerry’s World in January and embarrassed Dallas.

I liked the Saints to make the playoffs and possibly win the NFC South this year, but where the hell did all of this come from? I guess maybe beating up those South teams wasn’t meaningless as they only just added to this figure of dominance from last week and late in 2023:

The 2023-24 Saints join the 1941 Bears, 1968 Browns, 2007 Patriots, and 2018 Saints as the only teams in NFL history to score at least 44 points in three straight games. That’s historic company for a team no one was expecting this from. Alvin Kamara is out there playing like he’s 1999 Marshall Faulk. Carr’s 96.2 QBR leads the league and he’s treating Rashid Shaheed like he’s his Randy Moss.

But in one of the most shocking stats I’ve ever heard, Derek Carr started this season with 15 straight scoring drives.

How did he do that? That’s 9 straight scores against Carolina, then he was benched for the backup on the final two drives (both punts) with the game in hand, then he led 6 straight touchdowns in Dallas to get to 15.

I’m not sure if any quarterback has done that before even if you search through prime Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or Mahomes. Even when Josh Allen reached some offensive perfection in the 2021 playoffs by going 7-for-7 on touchdown drives against New England, and best you can stretch that out to 10 straight scoring drives by including the regular season finale and the next playoff game in Kansas City. He started that one with a punt on his second drive, so even him playing his best didn’t come close to 15 straight scores.

The quarterback being pulled for the score is certainly a strong factor for why this streak can even exist. But I honestly don’t know if you can find another streak like this for a quarterback in the NFL.

And it’s Derek Carr who did it? Insane. Carr only threw 16 passes in Dallas but they went for 243 yards. It was an onslaught of big passing plays and a consistent ground game. The Cowboys never had much of a shot to keep up as Dak Prescott threw for 293 yards, a touchdown, and 2 picks. The first pick was the swing moment just before halftime when the Cowboys were down 28-13 and just converted a 3rd-and-10. The pick felt a little similar to the pick-six he threw in January to Green Bay to make it 27-0.

But I still never would have believed the Saints had this type of performance in them. When we’re asking for a team to step up this year and show it’s great now, could this really be the team that does it? Is new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak a nepotism hire that’s worth its weight in gold?

Very curious to see where this goes as the Sains have been blowing teams out for longer than two weeks. No one cared late in 2023 because they were missing the playoffs. They should have everyone’s attention now.

49ers at Vikings: They Haven’t Won in Minnesota Since WHEN?

I couldn’t believe this stat when I heard it, but the 49ers haven’t won in Minnesota since December 1992, or a month after Bill Clinton won his first presidential election. The 49ers were on an 0-7 streak in Minnesota.

Make it 0-8 now. I knew they lost in Minnesota last season on a Monday night, and I chalked that up to injuries (Christian McCaffrey), a fluky touchdown to Jordan Addison before the half, and Purdy suffering a concussion late in the game before he threw some bone-headed picks. I liked the 49ers, who were without CMC again, to roll with Jordan Mason and overcome that loss last year.

Welp, I was wrong. They let Sam Darnold hit Justin Jefferson for a 97-yard touchdown that could go down as the longest play from scrimmage in this entire season. The 49ers also had a punt blocked, turned it over on downs twice, and Brock Purdy coughed up the ball on a drive that should have led to a 27-7 lead for the Vikings in the fourth quarter, but Aaron Jones fumbled on his way to the goal line to keep some hope alive in a 20-7 game.

But there was no comeback. Despite a 99-yard touchdown drive after the Jones fumble, the vaunted San Francisco defense couldn’t get Darnold off the field in several crucial third-down chances with Jefferson sidelined with an injury. Addison was already out before the game, and the Vikings haven’t even had tight end T.J. Hockenson available yet in these games. They could actually get better.

But their 6:46 drive for a field goal was a dagger as the Vikings were back up 23-14 with just 3:30 left. The 49ers added a field goal with 1:12 left to make it 23-17, but they couldn’t get the ball back after the onside kick failed.

I guess Brian Flores’ scheme is the magic weapon against the 49ers (without CMC)? Mason still rushed for 100 yards. Purdy still threw for 319, but it was the 6 sacks and the timely stops that frustrated the 49ers the entire game.

Buccaneers at Lions: Something’s Missing with Detroit

This spread (Lions -7.5) felt too high even if Detroit technically covered it twice last year against Tampa Bay. But the Buccaneers looked great last week, and Baker Mayfield has been playing very well. I wasn’t that impressed with Detroit last week in the overtime win over a battered Rams team, and sure enough, they were worse in this game.

Something just feels off with Detroit right now. Jameson Williams had a 50-yard catch again and looks better than Josh Reynolds ever did, so it’s not the lack of a WR2 or anything. Maybe it ‘s a slow start for tight end Sam LaPorta (13 yards) or how the running game hasn’t really been that great outside of the overtime drive last week.

But it always looks worse when Jared Goff is throwing his Jared Goof picks, and that happened a couple of times in this one. Even though the defense, led by an incredible effort from Aidan Hutchinson (4.5 sacks) got to Mayfield 5 times, they still gave up a rushing touchdown to Mayfield late in the third quarter to trail 20-16.

That still left Goff with four opportunities to get the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter, and despite each drive crossing deep into Tampa territory, the Lions went scoreless. Goff had a bad pick and later turned it over on downs twice despite the defense continuing to get him the ball back.

It was a big missed opportunity in a winnable game.

Bears at Texans: Not Quite My MVP’s Night

After a Sunday filled with contenders disappointing, I was hoping to see the Texans put on a show Sunday night in an easy win over Chicago. Instead, they scored 19 points on 12 drives, blew the spread, and had to come up with a last-second stop of rookie Caleb Williams, who was under duress all night from the pass rush.

At least the pass rush looked good with 7 sacks and plenty of pressures. But the Texans went from scoring 13 points on three drives to struggling the rest of the game. It looks like the huge Joe Mixon game in Week 1 was more about playing the Colts, a lousy run defense, than expecting any dominance out of the Houston running game this year. Mixon finished with 9 carries for 25 yards in this one as he was banged up.

But Stroud was solid, and that connection with Nico Collins (135 yards) is dominant. There is no denying who the WR1 in Houston is this year.

But I would have liked to see the Texans win in more convincing fashion against a Chicago team that still clearly has flaws with the offensive line, coaching, and Wiliams’ inexperience. He was better than he was in Week 1 at least.

Jets at Titans: Big Dick vs. Big Dick Energy

I guess the Jets can survive a team like Tennessee with this kind of effort, but they still have a lot of work to do to get up to the elite class. Aaron Rodgers might be good for one highlight-reel touchdown a week in this offense, but the highlight largely belonged to Breece Hall for a brilliant 26-yard touchdown that made him look like a wideout. Keep in mind that was on a drive to open the half that was nearly stopped on a three-and-out before a roughing penalty on the Titans negated a 3rd-and-15 stop.

The Titans had a lot of costly mistakes again in falling to 0-2. Will Levis again tried to do too much and had multiple turnovers, and they also had a punt blocked.

But to break a 17-17 tie in the fourth quarter, Rodgers led a 74-yard touchdown drive with 4:31 left. When Levis had to answer, his legs got them within 8 yards, but then things stalled out with a big sack, and Levis threw incomplete on 4th-and-14 to end the game.

The game did at least end a 7-game streak where Rodgers did not throw multiple touchdown passes, a streak that went back to November 2022.

Colts at Packers: Coaching Matters

A good example of how coaching matters. The Packers didn’t have Jordan Love, and their backup Malik Willis has failed to throw for 100 yards in each of his three NFL starts. But Matt LaFleur had a run-heavy gameplan as the Packers rolled up 261 yards on the ground with most of that coming before halftime as Josh Jacobs (151 yards) and company were outstanding. Well, except for that horrible fumble by Jacobs at the 1-yard line as he carried the ball like a loaf of bread.

But the Packers managed the game beautifully without Love. Willis finished 12-of-14 for 122 yards and a touchdown pass while rushing for 41 yards.

At this point, you have to wonder if Shane Steichen should be employing a similar approach with the raw Anthony Richardson, who threw 34 times but was picked off three times, including a Hail Mary to end things in the 16-10 loss. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor rushed for 103 yards but only had 12 carries. The Packers had long drives early while the Colts struggled to get into any rhythm.

The Colts are now 0-4 in games where Richardson plays most of the snaps. Not great.

Browns at Jaguars: The Lawrence Splits Continue

I said I was hedging my Week 2 picks with six games where I picked a spread winner different from the moneyline winner. I ended up going 5-0 ATS on those games (Falcons-Eagles pending) and 2-3 SU, so it wasn’t a bad strategy. Just needed a little more courage to pick the Browns and Packers outright to win.

But the reasons I liked the Browns in this one? They beat the Jaguars last year and I feel the defense has the right pieces to force Trevor Lawrence into a rough game, especially after discovering these stats where he basically can’t win a game if he doesn’t complete over 60% of his passes.

Sure enough, he was 14-of-30 in this game, so he was under 50% in the 18-13 loss. It was a rough game that seemingly never wanted to end as the Jaguars tried to make a comeback attempt late. They even had a 2-yard go-ahead touchdown with half a quarter left that was taken away for an illegal shift. They settled for a field goal to make it 16-13, Lawrence couldn’t get out of his end zone with the ball to start the next possession, and that sacked produced a safety with 1:44 left.

But the Browns were not able to run out the clock, and a Deshaun Watson incompletion on third down actually saved Lawrence a solid 40 seconds to make this 18-13 comeback plausible with 1:27 left.

He still had to go 90 yards, but after reaching the Cleveland 28, Lawrence’s Hail Mary was knocked away to end the game and drop the Jaguars to a disappointing 0-2 after both games were winnable.

Lawrence is now 2-21 when he doesn’t complete at least 60% of his passes. Daniel Jones is in the same boat and is now 1-17 when he doesn’t too, the only record that’s worse among the 179 quarterbacks since 1970 with at least 50 games of experience.

This might be how I pick Jacksonville games the rest of the year. Determining if Lawrence is going to complete a high rate or not. Right now, the connection to Christian Kirk is completely broken, and it didn’t help that tight end Evan Engram was injured in warm-ups and missed this game.

Giants at Commanders: OnlyFGs

Jayden Daniels’ first game-winning drive was a historic NFL game. I was skeptical of how Daniels would fare in a Kliff Kingsbury offense, but we have two games of evidence that he has drive engineering skills that can be very intriguing once he gets better at throwing the ball, especially to his wide receivers.

But after only getting the ball 8 times last week in Tampa Bay, each team only had the ball 7 times in this game. The Commanders just happened to turn all 7 of their possessions into field goals by Austin Seibert. That speaks poorly for their red-zone ability, but 3.00 Pts/Dr is still elite.

They took a knee before the half too, but this is really a perfect game if the goal was to score all field goals, and I don’t think there’s another like it in NFL history. If you search for games since 1940 where a team had no punts and no turnovers, only one game comes up showing a team that scored fewer than 26 points, and I’m thinking that’s just an error that they’re missing data for punts or turnovers or something’s off.

Only three teams show up for a game with 0 punts, 0 turnovers, and 5 field goal attempts. Interestingly enough, the Giants scored three touchdowns in this game and still lost because they only scored 18 points. Their kicker (Graham Gano) was injured before the game, made it worse on the opening kickoff, which was a 98-yard return by Austin Ekeler negated by penalty, and the backup missed an extra point. So, the Giants tried to go for two twice and failed both times.

Just an extremely unique way to get to a 21-18 score as both offenses were moving the ball quite well. Malik Nabers also looked the part of a No. 1 wideout with 10 catches for 127 yards and his first touchdown. But he’ll regret not hauling in that last target that he had a diving attempt for on 4th-and-4 at the Washington 22 with 2:09 left.

Instead, the Commanders took over in a tied game and Daniels hit his longest pass play for 34 yards to Noah Brown to set up the final, winning field goal with no time left. All seven field goals were from within 45 yards, and 6-of-7 were from within 33 yards.

You probably won’t see another one like this, but it does point to some interesting ways Daniels can operate in this offense with short passes and timely scrambles/designed runs. He just needs to stay healthy.

Steelers at Broncos: Flag Fest

It’s hard to judge the Pittsburgh offense right now as it seems like every highlight-worthy play gets called back by penalty, and sometimes it’s not even a good call. The Steelers only scored 13 points in Denver, but that was enough to outlast a supposed offensive genius in Sean Payton, who relied on some tricks to get Bo Nix to complete some passes down the field. But Nix wasn’t as painfully inefficient as he was last week in his debut. He’s just struggling on a team that frankly is lousy, and they have no real running game to support him with.

But it was a tough game to watch with 19 accepted penalties for 202 yards between the teams. The Steelers punted 8 times while the only turnover was a pick in the end zone by Nix before he added a second on a last-ditch desperation throw.

The Steelers reportedly gave Russell Wilson a game ball in the revenge game his calf wouldn’t let him play. I wonder what Tomlin is thinking at this point as they are not scoring enough points to beat any decent team, but Fields also isn’t screwing up egregiously yet to bench him for Wilson, a wild card.

But celebrating a 2-0 start when you’re averaging 15.5 points per game is a weird thing to do. They still have a lot of the offensive stink they’ve had since December 2020.

Chargers at Panthers: Stress-Free 2-0 Chargers

It almost happened last week, and it did happen Sunday when J.K. Dobbins had more rushing yards (131) than Justin Herbert had passing yards (130). But Herbert threw for two touchdowns to Quentin Johnston, who held on this time, and it was a stress-free 26-3 win over a pathetic Carolina team. Herbert is owed some layups after what he endured his first four seasons.

But it’s shocking that the Panthers actually look worse in every way this year under coach Dave Canales. Bryce Young is daring to be the worst quarterback drafted No. 1 overall since JaMarcus Russell, and maybe the only thing stopping me from calling him the biggest bust is that he’s a tiny guy with a relatively small contract.

But Young flat-out stinks as he managed to complete 18-of-26 passes for just 84 yards. Young is the only quarterback in NFL history to complete at least 18 passes in a game without throwing for 100 yards.

I didn’t think there was anything Canales could do to get himself fired like Frank Reich did 11 games into the 2023 season, but I might have to rethink that. This team is still the worst in the NFL and there has been nothing they could even hang their hat on from either game so far.

Seahawks at Patriots: Better Played Than Expected

You might have imagined a rough offensive game with this one being a “body clock” game for Seattle, which traveled without the services of Kenneth Walker. But the offenses were actually solid in doing what they do best.

The Patriots didn’t ask Jacoby Brissett to throw much, but they found creative ways to get the ball to tight end Hunter Henry for 109 yards. That supported a running game that piled up 185 yards.

But when it came time to pick up a 3rd-and-1 in overtime, Rhamondre Stevenson was stopped and the Patriots decided to punt from their 39. They never saw the ball again, but that is a tough call to go for it as the game is about to be over with a field goal inside the 40 if you don’t get it. Tough spot to come up short after another good rushing effort.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks couldn’t run the ball without Walker, gaining 38 yards on 14 carries with his replacement (Charbonnet). But props to Geno Smith for a big-time passing game (327 yards) without any turnovers.

The Seahawks blocked a 48-yard field goal with 3:54 left that would have made them have to score a touchdown, so add that to the list of “shit that Tom Brady never had to worry about in New England for two decades.”

That allowed the Seahawks to tie with a field goal to force overtime, and the defense’s impressive stop got them the ball back deep in their own end. Geno delivered on the game-winning drive, and the Seahawks paid it off with a 31-yard field goal to win 23-20 in overtime.

The Seahawks are 2-0, and with Tua Tagovailoa probably being out for Miami in Week 3, they have a real shot to go 3-0 with this schedule opportunity.

Rams at Cardinals: Did You Really Doubt Marvin Harrison Jr.?

It’s funny how we had one week of panic over Marvin Harrison Jr. because he caught one ball for 4 yards last week, and apparently the GPS data said he never ran faster than 16 miles per hour.

Well, we can put that one to rest after he caught 4 balls for 130 yards and two touchdowns in the game’s first 12 minutes. He didn’t add to those numbers, but the team also didn’t need him to as they blasted a battered Rams team 41-10 in a game that was expected to be much tighter. Sean McVay usually is on the right end of these blowouts, but this time it was all about the weapons the Cardinals have (MHJ, Trey McBride, James Conner) and the dwindling options for the Rams after losing Cooper Kupp in the game. They already lost Puka Nacua in Week 1.

Throw in Stafford getting sacked 5 times behind a battered line, and this has the potential to turn into 2022 much quicker than any wild card season for the Rams. It’s getting late early.

Next week: Patriots-Jets on Thursday? I’ll be working on the computer. Texans-Vikings suddenly a lot more interesting than it has any business being. Eagles-Saints could be good, or the Saints could roll yet another team if Jalen Hurts is really as mistake prone this year as he looked in Brazil. Malik Willis Revenge Game in Tennessee, or does Jordan Love already come back? Chargering comes to Pittsburgh, or does it? Steelers might actually need to score more than one touchdown in that game. Definitely a lot of pressure in Cowboys-Ravens game as one will be 0-3 or 1-2 after it. So many amusing ways that one could go. Chiefs should be sharper in Atlanta on Sunday night. A somewhat bland MNF doubleheader (Jags-Bills, Commanders-Bengals), but let’s see if Jayden Daniels can drop Cincy to 0-3 and if the Bills can drop the Jags to 0-3.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 1

My 2024 NFL season predictions featured “Making Offense Great Again” (MOGA) as the central theme to this season. Things got off to a solid start on Thursday and Friday night (bad field in Brazil withstanding), but Sunday was a kick in the nuts.

Most quarterbacks did not pass for over 200 yards, and we still might have Malik Willis to (not) look forward to with Green Bay next week after Jordan Love’s MCL injury.

I’m getting a late start on this, and I may do a story on it early this week, so I don’t want to get into all the details here. But the offensive revolution might be on hold again unless we let the Saints play the Panthers every week.

So far, 9-of-15 games featured a comeback opportunity, which is very normal. But it’s not so normal to only get one game with a true fourth-quarter lead change from an offense with time left in an entire week of games. It’s not like I expect another to come from Jets-49ers tomorrow night, but we’ll see.

Overall, I enjoyed Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The prime-time games (mostly) delivered, which can make up for a rough Sunday afternoon.

Rams at Lions: Game of the Day

Our first overtime game of 2024 was not a classic, but it was a solid playoff rematch from last year with Matthew Stafford falling to 0-2 against his former team in Detroit.

This game had a lot of injuries as Puka Nacua didn’t play the second half, and the offensive line was banged up badly for the Rams. Not much room for Kyren Williams, who never broke a run longer than 9 yards. Cooper Kupp ended up with 14 catches on 21 targets to make up for the loss of Nacua, and it almost was enough for the night.

Jameson Williams had his breakout game for the Lions with 121 yards and a touchdown. But I’m going to say it’s not ideal when Amon-Ra St. Brown only has 3 catches for 13 yards, one of the least productive games of his career. Jared Goff was up and down, and he got away with a dropped interception in the fourth quarter.

It was a rough game, but credit to the Rams for coming back from a double-digit deficit to taking a late 20-17 lead on a Kupp touchdown. But with a chance to run out the clock the way the Lions did to them in the playoffs, the Rams failed. Goff got his second chance, and he didn’t waste it. The Lions settled for overtime with a 32-yard field goal, but that was the right call as we know Dan Campbell loves a fourth down attempt.

After the way Super Bowl 58 ended, you kind of long for the strategy and system there to return, but we’re stuck with the old modified format. Sure enough, the Lions turned into the most dominant rushing team in the world all of a sudden and ran it right down the Rams’ throat despite little success earlier in the game. The Lions had 7 carries for 60 yards on the 70-yard drive in overtime, finishing things off with a 1-yard touchdown run by David Montgomery to win it 26-20, which means they even covered the spread (Lions -4.5).

Tough loss for an undermanned Rams team that was right there again. But with Jordan Love injured in Green Bay, the Lions look to be in good shape relative to the rest of the NFC North right now.

Patriots at Bengals: Upset of the Week

I should have known better that this game was trouble when it had the biggest spread (Bengals by 8+) of Week 1 as the Bengals simply shit the bed to start the season more often than not. Blame Zac Taylor, blame Joe Burrow, but they keep doing this.

At some point, you have to acknowledge the facts. I don’t want to hear that Tee Higgins was out, or that they lost Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon in the offseason. What happened to “watch out for Iosivas” this season? I don’t even want to hear that Ja’Marr Chase had food poisoning this weekend. Chase played and he caught all 6 targets for 62 yards.

The real question should be why not more targets? We saw what Matthew Stafford, a real gamer, did on Sunday night with an absurdly injured offensive line, missing his tight end (Tyler Higbee), and Puka Nacua left with an injury suffered in the first half. He targeted Cooper Kupp 21 times and did what he could.

If Burrow is as good as people say he is, then he needs to overcome some of these shortcomings more often. This was another poor, lifeless Week 1 performance from the offense, which had 224 yards and 13 first downs.

Now there weren’t many possessions in this game, and Tanner Hudson blew points with a fumble inside the 3-yard line, which sounds like old-school New England defense to me.

The Patriots grinded things out on the ground with Rhamondre Stevenson rushing 25 times for 120 yards. Jacoby Brissett only passe for 121 yards, but he didn’t have turnovers and he only took a single sack. It was just enough

But even when the Bengals got the ball back in a 16-10 game with 3:04 left at their own 10, that was a great setup for a heroic Burrow drive. Instead, it was a three-and-out, and despite having four clock stoppages, the defense couldn’t get the ball back. The Patriots ran out the clock.

But you have to do better than a 3-and-out that deep in that spot. Just terrible, and now we’ll see if they can work their magic against the Chiefs next week to avoid starting 0-2.

Panthers at Saints: Rout of the Week

Statistically, the Saints were one of the most dominant teams on the scoreboard late in the 2023 season, and that’s a good trait for a team to make the playoffs the following year. I’m not taking any victory lap yet after they smashed the god damn Carolina Panthers, but on a Sunday where most NFL teams didn’t look great, the Saints’ utter dominance in every facet was impressive.

Remember, the Panthers were supposed to be improved this year with a new coach (Dave Canales), new weapons, and Bryce Young no longer being a rookie. But wow, Young may be heading down the path of all-time bust if this continues.

The Saints scored 17 points before Young even completed a pass. That’s hard to do. That also made it nearly impossible for him to succeed in this game, but he never settled in and the Saints continued blowing the Panthers out until it was 47-10.

Thankfully, we’ll see the Saints play in Dallas next week, so there’s a great chance to see where this team really is. As for Carolina, yikes, this is about the worst way to start after a 2-15 season where you never took a snap with a fourth-quarter lead.

Cowboys at Browns: The Only Way to Make Deshaun Watson Worse Is to Give Him Tom Brady’s Voice

Here’s what the Cowboys-Browns game featured:

  • Dak Prescott, the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history at $60 million per season after finally getting his extension Sunday morning despite never reaching the NFC Championship Game.
  • Deshaun Watson, who made the largest $230 million theft in NFL history when he fleeced the Browns in a 2022 trade for a fully-guaranteed contract despite more than two dozens accusations of sexual misconduct.
  • Tom Brady, the highest-paid broadcaster in NFL history at $37.5 million, more than double the next closest person despite zero experience in the broadcasting booth.

Is it any surprise the game turned out to be a piece of shit?

Prescott had one of his most forgettable games in the Mike McCarthy era. After a good start, his special teams basically put up the last 19 points with a punt return touchdown and four field goal drives that covered a whopping 42 yards between them.

And he was still easily the best quarterback on the field. The only way you could have made Watson worse was if you gave him Tom Brady’s voice. But I’m not going to get into why I think Brady has the completely wrong voice for this job that he stole from a more deserving Greg Olsen.

But Watson again looked terrible, and while you can respect a good Dallas front, the sack merchant was ever present with multiple turnovers and an inability to sustain offense. Even worse, Watson’s arm just looked shot. I don’t know how Kevin Stefanski doesn’t just bench him and go with Jameis Winston, but this continues to be the worst trade in NFL history and the biggest sunk cost you’ll ever see.

Ezekiel Elliott looked youthful and strong compared to washed-up Watson. It’s a miracle the Cowboys were ever a 2.5-point underdog in this one.

Jaguars at Dolphins: The One Where Tyreek Got Arrested First

You can’t make this stuff up. Tyreek Hill went from nearly going downtown with police officers, under arrest for a verbal altercation after a traffic violation, to catching the longest touchdown reception (80 yards) of his NFL career to spark a comeback win by Miami.

The Dolphins were very sluggish, down 14-0 to the Jaguars, before Hill took off for the end zone and even recreated the handcuffing incident he had in the morning. Watching that footage play out after watching the new Netflix movie Rebel Ridge (it’s great) the night before is crazy.

This is the third article tonight I’m writing about this incident, so I’m a little tongue-tied about it. But I really thought I was looking at AI images when I opened my phone Sunday morning and saw Hill handcuffed. Only the multiple videos and tweets from Adam Schefter clued me in this was real.

But what a major disappointment for the Jaguars, who went scoreless after halftime. They had a 17-7 lead and were 13 yards away from the end zone late in the third quarter. But Travis Etienne fumbled at the 3-yard line, one of the weekend’s biggest turnovers, and that completely changed the game. A play later, it was Tyreek for 80 yards.

The big plays won it for Miami, and kicker Jason Sanders redeemed himself for an earlier miss with a 52-yard field goal at the buzzer to win 20-17. Miami never led in the game before that final snap.

Curious to see where things go from here with the team’s biggest nemesis, Buffalo, coming into town Thursday night.

Titans at Bears: The Comeback Win I Sorta Predicted for Caleb Williams’ Debut

One of my favorite picks this week was Chicago getting a clutch, comeback win in Caleb Williams’ debut to start helping out Matt Eberflus’ league-worst record in such games.

Well, it happened. It didn’t happen in any way I imagined, but it was a classic throwback to the 2006 Bears and the way they came back to beat the Cardinals on Monday Night Football with multiple return touchdowns.

The Bears were awful offensively, trailed 17-0, and only finished with 148 yards of offense. The preseason is not the regular season, and Caleb was 14-of-29 for 93 yards. On the bright side, he only took two sacks and threw no picks. Jusitn Fields probably loses this game if given the chance.

But Williams was not doing much to help the comeback effort. The Bears blocked a punt for a touchdown. They also turned a strip-sack of Will Levis into a field goal drive that netted 1 yard.

But it ended up being one of the hardest games I’ve ever had to catalogue for 4QC/GWD purposes:

  • Chicago trailed 17-10 to start the fourth quarter and had a drive going with Williams.
  • The 44-yard drive ended with a 50-yard field goal to make it 17-13.
  • Levis coughed up the ball, setting up that 1-yard drive for a field goal to make it 17-16.
  • Technically, you just had two 4QC/GWD attempts, and the offense chipped in two field goals.
  • Four plays later, Will Levis forced a pick-six, and there goes the go-ahead score for Chicago at 22-17.
  • Williams completed a 2-point conversion pass to D’Andre Swift to make it 24-17, an important 7-point cushion.

It’s clearly a team fourth-quarter comeback. It’s clearly not a game-winning drive since the pick-six is not a drive. The 2PC was important though, and that makes me wonder if I should be counting it. But I’m not going to. At the same time, I’m giving Williams the 4QC win since without the two field goals from the offense, the pick-six doesn’t win the game for Chicago.

It’s a messy situation, and it’s all the fault of Levis. Why in the hell would you force this pass up on 3rd-and-6 with the lead? Just take the sack and live another drive.

That is seriously some 2001 or 2006 Bears bullshit. Also, of course Levis couldn’t make up for it on the final drive, getting picked again.

Williams did not impress, but Levis disappointed even more as he should be further along than this. I’m really not sure about that 2023 draft class outside of C.J. Stroud.

Texans at Colts: My MVP Gets It Done in Wild Week 1 Game

C.J. Stroud is my MVP pick this year, but how about those new additions in Houston? Stefon Diggs caught both of Stroud’s touchdowns, but it was running back Joe Mixon who had the huge game with 159 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The Colts had few answers for this offense, especially in must-stop situations.

But the player I thought was the biggest wild card this year is Anthony Richardson, and he did not disappoint with his “boom-or-bust” playing label. He was only 9-of-19 passing, but he had three different completions for over 50 yards, including a 60-yard touchdown pass to Alec Pierce that was one of the longest and most impressive touchdown throws I’ve ever seen in the NFL:

He even slid before throwing it, so he didn’t fully step into it. Incredible play. Too bad he misses some of the easy ones, so if he can correct that with experience, then the Colts should have something here.

At least offensively. The defense could not stop Houston in the fourth quarter despite the offense making it a 2-point game twice. The Texans responded with touchdowns twice, including a play I loved the decision for from coach DeMeco Ryans.

The Texans were up 22-20 and faced 4th-and-2 at the 2-yard line with 4:45 left. Why kick the field goal to go up 5 points and risk losing on a touchdown in the final minute? Go for the jugular, which they did, and Diggs caught his second touchdown to make it a 2-score game again.

But even after Indy scored to again make it 29-27, the four-minute offense went to work with a couple of first downs, including a 3rd-and-11 conversion for 12 yards from Stroud to Nico Collins, a Colts killer.

It’s only one game, but again, this is why I’m big on the Texans to be a new rival to the Chiefs. If you get Stroud playing like this, he’s someone who could outduel Mahomes in a fourth quarter and keep the ball away from him in a one-score game.

Green Bay, my Super Bowl pick, almost broke my heart Friday night with the sloppy performance and Love injury. But the Texans, who were my Green Bay equivalent in the AFC to possibly derail Kansas City’s three-peat, gave me some confidence with this performance.

But let’s keep it going and get even better.

Steelers at Falcons: The Six Field Goal Mike Tomlin Special

I ended up (regrettably) watching most of this game. Basically, it was the kind of Chicago Bears win you would have thought Justin Fields could have enjoyed there. Pretty lousy offense, Fields flirting with disaster on fumbled snaps to start the game, bad third-down sacks as the coaching staff didn’t trust him, and the defense and special teams were fantastic for the Steelers.

T.J. Watt and kicker Chris Boswell basically won the game for them. We know the last Mike Tomlin playoff win was 18-16 on six field goals against the 2016 Chiefs. He kind of did it again as Boswell made six field goals and most of them were very long.

Watt was a beast again, and Kirk Cousins looked very rusty and slow in a new offense after his Achilles tear. Not a good debut at all for him, and it’s as if Arthur Smith never left. Hell, he was in the building calling multiple runs on 3rd-and-long in this game.

But this is how the Steelers win. Keep it close and hope that a fumble happens when a receiver is running in motion for Atlanta. That really did happen, and of course, Watt was the one there to pounce on the ball in a big moment.

But Cousins had his chances to be the hero as Fields – no shocker – couldn’t put the game away. But he was picked with 2:34 left and then sacked by Watt on the final snap to mercifully end this one.

The Steelers have some compensation incentives to not keep playing Fields, and I think we’ll see Russell Wilson eventually. But this kind of offense isn’t going to beat that many teams in the NFL without superhuman efforts from Watt.

He might be up to the task though, especially if the idea that linemen playing closer to the line instead of leaning back is a point of emphasis to cut down on those illegal formations.

However, I’m still puzzled as to why they traded Diontae Johnson. This passing game is George Pickens or bust right now.

Cardinals at Bills: The Almost Upset of the Week

I said in my Week 1 predictions that I could easily see Arizona winning this as an upset and referendum on Buffalo getting rid of Stefon Diggs. But even when the Cardinals went up 10, I wasn’t that worried as I noticed the Cardinals had the ball for 13 of the first 15 minutes. Buffalo just needed the ball.

Josh Allen was facing a no-name defense, so he didn’t need big-name receivers. He had plenty enough around him, but I was surprised that Dalton Kincaid only had an 11-yard catch. But I was confident in rookie Keon Coleman (51 yards led team in receiving) having an impressive debut against this secondary to alleviate some concerns after the team let the Chiefs get Xavier Worthy at No. 28. That could still be a huge regret, but Coleman was always going to produce this week.

By game’s end, Buffalo even pulled ahead in time of possession, so no big deal. But the Cardinals still made this interesting thanks to a 96-yard kickoff return touchdown in the fourth quarter. I’m not a big fan of the dynamic kickoff so far, but it is producing better field position and already a touchdown like that.

But in a 31-28 game, the Bills nearly botched this badly. They had a chance to put the game away but Allen was stuffed on a 3rd-and-2 run. Instead of going for the 4th-and-3 at the Arizona 21 at the 2-minute warning, they kicked the short field goal and settled for a 34-28 lead with Arizona having all three timeouts to drive for the winning touchdown.

To make it worse, the Bills’ kickoff went out of bounds, so Murray only needed 60 yards. He’s done far harder before, including against Buffalo in 2020 (“Hail Murray”). When you have Allen, you should be going for that fourth down. The 6-point lead is one of the worst places to be. At least if it was still a 31-28 game, you can count on Arizona to probably kick a field goal instead of go for a fourth down.

But the Cardinals had their chances, and it’s my understanding rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. was left wide open on the drive for a potential touchdown, but Kyler didn’t see it or didn’t think to throw to him. The drive ended with Murray throwing incomplete on 4th-and-7 at the Buffalo 29 with 26 seconds left.

Crisis adverted – barely. But the Bills will need to clean some things up in Miami this week, and Allen reportedly has a left hand injury that he suffered on one of his touchdown runs. Let that sink in.

Vikings at Giants: Wrong Improbable New York QB Breakout Year

I expected both of these teams to be terrible this year, and I still believe that’s highly possible. But one of my worst picks this week was the Giants as the upset special at home. I got a little too focused on what happened in 2022, ignoring 2023, and the fact that Daniel Jones is just not the answer. At least with Darnold, we haven’t seen him fail as many times, and he has some solid talent around him in a pass-friendly offense.

Darnold started this game on fire, then the team had little reason to score more as Jones wasn’t getting the job done. But this pick-6, while a very athletic play by the defender, is a good example of why this season needs to be Jones’ last in New York.

And what the hell were those jerseys? Alas, Andrew Van Ginkel is apparently the master of the fast interception.

Raiders at Chargers: Can Jim Harbaugh Go 5-1 in the AFC West?

Coach Jim Harbaugh made his NFL return with a win, 22-10 over the Raiders. He came here to make Justin Herbert’s life easier, and so far, it worked. The Chargers had just 11 first downs, the fewest in the Herbert era. They gave Herbert 170 rushing yards while he only threw for 144, another rarity.

The passing game is a work in progress with these young receivers, but how about J.K. Dobbins rushing for 135 yards in his team debut? He even ripped off a 61-yard play. Great to see after injuries robbed him in Baltimore from more success.

But mission successful in not blowing a two-score lead in the fourth quarter. However, the Chargers got some help from new Raiders coach Antonio Pierce, a hire I was not supportive for. In his first game without the interim tag, he made a big mistake in a 16-10 game with 7:15 left. The Raiders faced a 4th-and-1 at the Los Angeles 43 and decided to punt.

I can understand the old-school philosophy there as that’s what you used to do in those situations. But with under half a quarter left, you’re looking at maybe one more possession before you start relying on all your timeouts. You also have to remember that converting 4th-and-1 is in your favor (> 50%). I think punting was a big mistake, and you have to think it won’t be the last time we see this from Pierce, the big flaw in hiring a defensive-minded coach who only sees the old ways of the game he played.

To make it worse, the defense he relies on gave up a 92-yard touchdown drive thanks to the big Dobbins run. Gardner Minshew was picked to end it, but he’s probably still their best choice for a quarterback for the rest of the year despite only 10 points in Los Angeles.

But with the way the Raiders and Broncos look, who says Harbaugh can’t steal a game against the Chiefs and possibly go 5-1 in the division to fuel a playoff berth as a wild card? That was one of my main thoughts on the Chargers all along, but after Week 1, I feel even better about it.

Broncos at Seahawks: Sean Payton on His Week 1 Shit Again

The Seahawks are going to have some elite defensive stats in this one, the debut and first win for coach Mike Macdonald. But for the second year in a row, Sean Payton went into a Week 1 and watched his quarterback put on a dink-and-dunk performance that was literally for the record books.

Fewest Passing Yards by Number of Completions in NFL history (1950-2024)

After Russell Wilson had a record-low 177 passing yards on 27 completions against the Raiders last year, rookie Bo Nix did him one better and had just 138 yards on 26 completions. That’s the fewest passing yards in a game with more than 25 completions in NFL history.

This was rough, and Nix could have easily had more than the two picks he threw as Seattle dropped several. But it’s not like he had any real help out there other than his defense coming up with a pair of safeties, something you almost never see. But Nix ended up leading the Broncos with 35 rushing yards, including a late touchdown that made it mildly interesting at 26-20.

Geno Smith had some mistakes, but he also had a 34-yard touchdown run that he couldn’t possibly have done last year when he was playing hurt. When it came to icing the game with a late third-down pass to deny Nix getting a shot at a game-winning drive, Smith found Tyler Lockett for 9 yards to end things.

Enough to be encouraged about for Seattle, but we really need to see this defense play a quarterback who knows what they’re doing. Granted, there may not be a ton of those in the league right now. But even Jacoby Brissett will be a step up in competition in New England next week.

Started to get a sense of how Nix completed over 77% of his passes at Oregon last year to set an NCAA single-season record. He’ll take literally any short completion you will give him no matter how fruitless the gain is. But you can’t end his career after one game. He’s just a rookie, albeit an older one.

Commanders at Buccaneers: It’s Probably Not 2012 in Washington Again

I guess the hope all along with Washington repeating its 2012 season success with Robert Griffin III would be a surprisingly good season from Jayden Daniels. While he did make me very happy in his debut with a 2-touchdown performance on the ground (+2200 odds), it wasn’t the kind of passing performance you wanted to see. Terry McLaurin (17 yards) barely did a thing. More than half of Daniels’ 184 passing yards went to running backs.

But he ran the ball 16 times for 88 yards and will be viable at the goal line. He just better tighten that helmet as it came loose a couple of times and nearly cost him that second touchdown. I’d be quite bitter right now if that happened.

But Dan Quinn’s defense was no real improvement on last year when they were the worst in the league under Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio. Baker Mayfield picked them apart with 24-of-30 for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns. Mike Evans caught two scores and still has WR1 skills.

Tampa had one of the most thorough and complete performances of any team this week. Not that it should be that surprising against a rebuilt Washington team with a long way to go. But it’s a very good start with Detroit up next.

Next week: Are we peaking early with Bills-Dolphins on Thursday night? Saints-Cowboys could be interesting, or it could be a blowout. Either way, we get to test the Saints right away against a non-Carolina opponent, so that’s great. Bengals-Chiefs loses some luster with the New England upset, but it’d be typical NFL for Cincinnati to win that one to avoid an 0-2 start. That Chicago offense isn’t ready for prime time, so good luck in Houston. Ditto with Kirk Cousins going to Philly on his least favorite day of the week.

NFL Stat Oddity: 2023 Wild Card Weekend

And that’s why we don’t call it Super Wild Card weekend, because not much was super about that 3-day trek of games. Sure, we saw dazzling playoff debuts for C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love, the Detroit Lions finally won a playoff game for the first time since 1991, and the fraud department was busy sending home teams who didn’t stand a chance of going the distance (Dolphins, Steelers, Eagles), or it exposed the defenses who beefed up their stats against the weakest opponents (Cowboys and Browns) and folded when it mattered most.

On those fronts, it was a strong week of action. But if you told me every home team would win except for Dallas, the team that won 16 games in a row at home and usually in dominant fashion, I might not have believed you.

I definitely wouldn’t have believed you if you said there wouldn’t be a single lead change in any game after the 12:00 mark in the second quarter of Browns-Texans on Saturday.

But that happened too. The other 5 games were all wire-to-wire wins, putting this postseason on pace for some history in that department if teams don’t start showing up with better efforts.

I’m still getting over the flu, but a good night of sleep is one hell of a dose of self-medication for that. I feel good enough to share some thoughts on these 6 games before I go back for more sleep and to start preparing data, previews, and picks for the divisional round, my favorite weekend of the NFL year.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Browns at Texans: When the Young Kid Puts Down Old Yeller

We might look back one day and laugh at the time Joe Flacco, days before his 39th birthday, was a road favorite over C.J. Stroud in a playoff game. But as someone who picked Cleveland to win a tight one, I’m using this game as a good lesson on what to take away from a recent meeting before a playoff rematch.

The season-long trends mattered more than the recent trends where Flacco was dealing (albeit with a high interception rate), and Stroud was kind of mediocre down the stretch outside of a great job in Indianapolis to get into the playoffs.

But Houston’s ability to scheme receivers open, especially at home, combined with Stroud’s already advanced skills at throwing off platform and giving his guys chances proved to overwhelm a Cleveland defense that I feared was a paper tiger all along. In the playoffs, you aren’t facing Joe Burrow on a bad calf, or a slumping Ryan Tannehill, or getting Matt Canada fired again in Pittsburgh, or feasting on Arizona rookie Clayton Tune.

There was just something fishy about a defense that allowed at least 22 points in every road game this year, and you can’t blame that all on their league-leading 37 turnovers as that has been a problem all year for Cleveland. Blame the offense on the Pittsburgh loss for Deshaun Watson’s 2 turnovers getting returned for touchdowns, sure, but that was not the norm for them.  

Turnovers ended up being a story in this game, but Houston was already up 24-14 in the third quarter before Flacco had his back-to-back pick-sixes that crushed any hope left for Cleveland. But things were already looking bad before that as Myles Garrett contributed more offsides penalties than any impact plays on defense.

Both offenses were hitting plays early as this one was on pace for over 1,000 total yards. But after Kareem Hunt scored his second touchdown to give the Browns a 14-10 lead, the Texans answered back with a 1-play drive that saw backup tight end Brevin Jordan leak open for a 76-yard touchdown. Houston led 17-0 with 12:00 left in the second quarter and we literally never saw another lead change the rest of wild card weekend.

The Browns were stopped on 3 straight drives to end the half as pressure got to Flacco. When these teams met in Week 16 and Cleveland won easily, there were multiple lessons we should have taken away from that game and applied to this one:

  • Obviously, having Stroud back at quarterback was huge, but Houston also didn’t have top pass rushers Will Anderson and Jonathan Greenard in Week 16. They were back and Anderson had 1-of-4 sacks of Flacco.
  • Pressure got to Flacco on that fateful first pick-six, and he tried to throw the ball away, only to have it returned 82 yards for a touchdown by Steven Nelson.
  • Cleveland’s lack of a running game in Week 16 was a problem again as they only produced 17 carries for 43 yards this time. Hunt was stuffed on a key 3rd-and-1 run, which led to Flacco’s next pick-six on a 4th-and-2. If the running game is adequate, he’s never throwing in that desperate situation and blowing the game open at 38-14.
  • Flacco overcame his running game woes in Week 16 with huge plays to Amari Cooper, who had 265 yards. But he injured his heel that game and we didn’t know how he’d play in his return game. He finished with 59 yards and was clearly not 100%, and that didn’t help Cleveland’s cause.

Cooper’s decline of 206 receiving yards is the 5th-largest drop in a playoff rematch in NFL history by a receiver.

Flacco started the game well, but the cumulative pressure got to him, and the double whammy of picks was a game destroyer, making the fourth quarter pretty forgettable as Houston won 45-14.

But you did see the value in this game of having a young quarterback with mobility as Stroud could evade pressure and feather the ball to his receivers with accuracy. The barely mobile Flacco tried to throw one away and it ended up going back the other way for a game-changing touchdown.

I still stand by the data that says there’s no correlation between two team’s turnover margins and what their turnover margin will be in a playoff matchup against each other. Even at extreme levels like the gap in this game, the turnover-prone team usually beats the turnover-averse team.

But there will be no improbable Flacco Super Bowl run this year, and the Cleveland defense is in fact not even close to being a legendary unit. The history made here is that Stroud only needed a half to tie the record for touchdown passes by a rookie in a playoff game with 3.

Dolphins at Chiefs: Still Wish It Was Colder?

My favorite bet for the entire week was Dolphins under 19.5 points. When they usually can’t get to 20 points on the road against good teams in fair weather, how were they going to do it in the 4th-coldest game in NFL history at minus-4 degrees at kickoff?

One 53-yard touchdown pass to Tyreek Hill was all the Miami offense had to muster. The Chiefs were excellent on defense as that was the only 20-yard play they allowed in the game.

When Mike McDaniel thought a 22-20 win over Dallas was enough for his players to tell the media to (with all due respect) “fvck off” about his team’s record against winning teams, that’s what my reaction was all year long to people who thought this team was a serious Super Bowl contender and not just a paper tiger.

McDaniel has now lost 10 straight road games to playoff teams.

All I can add on this loss is that it’s the kind of performance that should make Miami hold off on giving Tua Tagovailoa a record-setting contract extension, because you know that’s what his agent will be seeking as the next quarterback due to get paid. I’m not saying they have to part ways, but I’d be very careful about making that deal happen. He just doesn’t get the job done in games like this, and guess what, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes don’t look like they’re going anywhere in the AFC anytime soon. Same with Lamar Jackson, and oh yeah, now you have to think about C.J. Stroud in Houston too.

Tua’s QBR of 15.8 made him the only quarterback under 40.0 this week.

But enough about Miami. I want to talk about this Kansas City performance the rest of the way. I thought Patrick Mahomes played very well, and I would not have guessed he’d have that kind of night based on how bad the first 2 snaps looked. But one big 3rd-and-10 conversion to Travis Kelce, who held on that time, and the Chiefs were off to a strong start. Mahomes had a few big scrambles too, and he even cracked his helmet on the frozen night and did not miss a play.

Mahomes did not take any sacks, and the only turnover was an obligatory fumble late in the game by CEH with the game out of reach for Miami. I thought Mahomes had a good read of the blitz from Miami, and he threw the ball away when he had to. The only drawback was the red-zone performance where the Chiefs settled for 4 field goals, looking similar to Week 17 when they kicked 6 field goals against the Bengals. That can catch up with you against a better team than Miami like they’ll play going forward. It also helped that the Dolphins were so injured on defense, which is why I think they just kept blitzing Mahomes, which is usually a no-no.

Throwing some deep balls on third downs to Mecole Hardman, who has the worst ball-tracking skills ever, is another dangerous tactic I don’t want to see the Chiefs continue this postseason against better teams. But they had no problem beating Miami without playing their best.

Now we get a real road game for this team and against a Buffalo team that arguably plays them better than anyone. It could be another classic.

Just glad we don’t have to entertain the Dolphins as contenders anymore this season.

Packers at Cowboys: Doomsday in Dallas Used to Mean Something Different

My preseason Super Bowl pick was Dallas going on a revenge tour, beating the 49ers in San Francisco in the title game, and ultimately losing to the Ravens in the Super Bowl. Well, Baltimore fans better get nervous, because I literally never pick the correct Super Bowl winner, and now my loser is gone after a shocking first-round exit at home in a 48-32 loss.

In Mike McCarthy’s best shot yet to become the first coach to win a Super Bowl with multiple teams, he instead became the first coach to lose to a No. 7 seed. We know the Packers always gave the Cowboys fits during Aaron Rodgers’ tenure, but we might have to expect more years of misery at the hands of Jordan Love after this game.

Right from his first pass on the opening drive, Love came out smoking. In fact, Green Bay’s decision to receive after winning the toss was one of the best coaching decisions all weekend. You need to set the tone when you play a front-running team that is used to leading like Dallas. All the pressure was on Dallas to win this game as the No. 2 seed, and Green Bay was immediately able to take a lead and build that pressure after consuming half the quarter.

Love was masterful in his first playoff start on the road, completing 16-of-21 passes for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had no sacks or turnovers, and his favorite receiver was the open one. Jayden Reed led the team in receiving categories this year, but he had no catches in this game. Christian Watson was the expected No. 1 coming into the season, but he is always injured. He returned this weekend and had only a 9-yard catch against a defense he broke out against in 2022 when he scored 3 touchdowns. It was Romeo Doubs with the dominant game as he had 151 yards and a touchdown. Rookie tight end Luke Musgrave also broke wide open for a 38-yard touchdown as Matt LaFleur was having a great time roasting his predecessor.

I’ve said for 20 years since those pesky 2001-04 Patriots teams won 3 Super Bowls that it can be really advantageous to have a group of talented receivers with no clear No. 1 receiver. That was when the Patriots played dink-and-dunk passing with Troy Brown, David Givens, David Patten, and Deion Branch. Mix in your backs and tight ends, and defenses couldn’t go into games on a weekly basis and figure out who to focus on or draw more attention to with double teams. Technically, it was Troy Brown early on in that run and Deion Branch later, but any of them could get open and do something after the catch on any given play.

The 2023 Packers are kind of enjoying that advantage right now with this young group of receivers, including Doubs, Watson, Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks. Throw in a veteran back and Dallas killer like Aaron Jones (118 yards and 3 touchdowns), and the Packers had a variety of ways to make Dallas look silly.

Similar to the Browns, the Cowboys had some paper tiger warnings on defense since they padded their stats against awful offenses like the Jets, Panthers, Patriots, and those sack merchant lines for the Giants and Commanders (twice each). You saw Brock Purdy shred them in San Francisco. You saw Jalen Hurts at least put up one great game against them when the Eagles were playing better earlier in the year. Even Geno Smith went into Dallas and put on a passing clinic and 35 points, but that usually doesn’t happen to Dallas in Dallas.

But the Cowboys were rough on defense, and they were not prepared for a team with a quarterback who came in red hot like Love. Since the Dallas offense is usually so efficient, the Cowboys also faced the fewest drives of any defense this year, so their per-drive numbers were not elite this season.

But I’m not sure anyone imagined a 48-32 game in favor of the Packers. Worse, it was 27-0 at one point after maybe the worst start to a game in Dak Prescott’s career. You knew it was going to be a long day when he had 0 passing yards in the first quarter for the first time in his career. From the opening drive you could see he was just a little off with CeeDee Lamb after they were so good down the stretch this year. Then Jaire Alexander beat Brandin Cooks to an interception, and the Packers only needed to go 19 yards to make it 14-0.

The Cowboys continued to stubbornly stick with the run on early downs, and Prescott was not getting into a rhythm and converting enough third downs. Down 20-0 at the 2-minute warning, that’s when disaster struck as Dak did not see Darnell Savage on a pick-six that was returned 64 yards to put the Packers up 27-0.

Dallas was fortunate to get a touchdown on the final play of the half after it clearly looked live that there was a false start or something funky pre-snap. But nothing was called, and Jake Ferugson caught the first of what would be three touchdowns on the day.

But the Packers are not the Chargers. They weren’t going to blow a 27-0 lead. This might have been a little more interesting had Dallas pulled off a double touchdown score, but the Cowboys were held to a field goal to start the third quarter, making it 27-10.

Fox’s Greg Olsen put it perfectly. A comeback like this isn’t possible if your defense can’t get stops. I’ve written about this several times now since Super Bowl 51, including this 2018 post about Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. It’s not like Brady is the only quarterback who could make a 25-point comeback in a playoff game. He just may be the only one who is lucky enough to have his defense hold a juggernaut offense with the MVP at quarterback to no more points the rest of the way and to even force a short field on a fumble.

I’m not deflecting the blame from Dak in this game. He blew it. But it’s also true that Dallas scored 32 points over its final 7 drives, and we might have had a game here if the Dallas defense didn’t allow 3 straight Green Bay touchdown drives to start the second half.

That blown coverage on Musgrave made it 41-16 with 16:27 left in the game, basically asking for Dallas to make the greatest comeback in history at that point. After turning it over on downs, the Cowboys watched the Packers convert a 4th-and-2 for another touchdown to make it 48-16 with 10:23 left. Goodnight, Irene. They couldn’t even get the little 4th-down stop with minimal pressure on both teams at the moment.

But I must say, for being down 32 with just over 10 minutes left, the Cowboys came closer to 8+8+8+8 then you’d ever want to see as the leading team. They didn’t even recover an onside kick. They just used their timeouts, scored quickly, and got the pair of 3-and-outs on defense they needed earlier in the game.

This was an incredible one-handed catch from CeeDee Lamb in the end zone away from Dallas going for 2 to make it 48-40 with just over a minute left. Sure, they’d need to then recover an onside kick and score another touchdown with a 4th straight 2-point conversion just to force overtime, but getting to 48-40 with an onside chance after it was 48-16 not that long ago? That would have been an impressive rally attempt.

But the game should have never gotten that out of hand in the first place, and that is why I wouldn’t be surprised if McCarthy gets the axe for this game. It’s also going to be hard to ever trust Dak in a big game after he had his best season, they were healthy for this game, and he and the offense just laid a turd for the first half.

Green Bay getting hot at the right time behind a quarterback playing outstanding ball is good stuff. We don’t see that too often anymore in the NFL playoffs, so we’ll see if he can slay the San Francisco dragon that Aaron Rodgers never could. He already got past the Dallas dragon that tripped up Brett Favre in the 90s.

But these Cowboys are not the Cowboys of the 90s. The fact that Jerry Jones keeps hanging onto those glory hole days and thinking every year is going to end up like that again is why he must annually be so disappointed when his team flops in the playoffs.

But I have to say, even by Jerry’s standards, this flop was the worst one yet, because things were breaking for them this year.

Rams at Lions: Puka Gets a Tug and No Happy Ending

Of all the games this week that should have been high scoring and come down to the final drive, this was the one to pick. In the end, we got an exciting first half with 38 points and both quarterbacks dealing, and then we got 3 field goals and still not a single lead change after halftime as Detroit held on for the 24-23 win.

Yeah, it’s awesome that the Lions finally won a playoff game. But excuse me for being a little bummed out that this game didn’t have more touchdowns or a better dramatic finish. This was the matchup for it with these underwhelming defenses, and they lived up to it early with all the scoring drives. Detroit scored 3 straight touchdowns to begin the game.

I thought Matthew Stafford played very well through the pain of a cut on his hand that left him bloody. He may have saved the game on the final play of the first quarter by converting a 3rd-and-16 with the Lions already up 14-3 and humming along. But some of the red-zone struggles and difficulty of hooking up with Cooper Kupp proved fatal to the Rams in this one. It also didn’t help that Kyren Williams kept leaving for health reasons as the league’s leader in rushing yards per game only put up 61 yards in Detroit. Stafford must have really felt at home, trying to carry a team with minimal rushing support and a defense that was getting shredded.

But by the end of the night, the Lions barely rushed for more yards than the Rams (82 to 68). Both offenses were 3-for-9 on third down. I thought fourth down might play a bigger role in this game with Dan Campbell being much more aggressive than conservative Sean McVay, but both teams were 1-for-1 on fourth downs.

The Rams can probably kick themselves for outgaining the Lions by 91 yards in a game with zero turnovers and still losing 24-23. But that’s what happens you go 0-for-3 in the red zone at scoring touchdowns and kick 3 field goals under 30 yards.

Were any of the field goals the wrong call by McVay? No, they were all 4th and 6 or longer. They were the right decisions at the moment. My beef with McVay in this game is a common one I’ve had for him going back several years now: He blew his timeout management in the second half again.

Stafford took a sack 3 snaps into the third quarter and McVay wasted a timeout on a 3rd-and-11. Save that shit and take the 5-yard delay penalty. The Rams ended up throwing an incomplete pass and punted. He did it again in the fourth quarter before a 3rd-and-8 deep in his own end, down 24-20. More defensible than the first one, I still don’t think it is worth it most of the time in that situation. The Rams ended up converting by a screen pass to Puka Nacua, who was awesome.

You know Nacua is a real one when he can make Kupp look like a secondary receiver in this offense. Puka was outstanding in his playoff debut with 9 catches for 181 yards and a 50-yard touchdown.

Unfortunately, Nacua was also involved in the play of the game that will be remembered most by Rams fans. On 3rd-and-14 at the Detroit 44 with 4:20 left, the Rams were in a tough spot. A conversion is hard there, but at least they could get some yards and try a reasonable go-ahead field goal. Stafford went for the big play to Nacua, and his jersey was grabbed from behind and the pass fell incomplete. Receivers usually get that call but there was no flag this time.

The Rams really had no choice but to punt from their 44, and they were down to just 2 clock stoppages because of the piss-poor clock management earlier. The Lions are good in these situations because they are aggressive under Campbell, and they were able to run out the clock after 2 first downs on pass plays. Amon-Ra St. Brown had a great playoff debut too and got over 100 yards on the night with his 11-yard catch to seal the game.

Goff had a couple of scary plays in this game that serve as reminders for why you don’t like to trust him in big games. But overall, he played well, and the Lions did enough to survive this one. Now they get to host the Buccaneers with a shot at the NFC Championship Game very much in play as they are a home favorite this week.

From no playoff wins in 31 seasons to possibly an NFC Championship Game appearance or more? Crazy stuff for Detroit.

Steelers at Bills: The Standard in Postseason Scoring

The downside to the Steelers making the playoffs has become the quick exit that almost feels inevitable. Pittsburgh lost its fifth playoff game in a row, meaning Mike Tomlin has not won any playoff games in the last 7 seasons (2017-23).

This is also the fifth time under Tomlin that the Steelers allowed at least 31 points in a playoff game while forcing no takeaways. The only team with that many playoff games since the 1970 merger is the Denver franchise, which has done this 6 times. But the Steelers have done it 5 times since 2007.

  • Pittsburgh is the first team in NFL history to allow at least 31 points in 5 straight playoff games.
  • Pittsburgh has allowed 202 points in its last 5 playoff games, the most in any 5-game span in playoff history, surpassing a record they already held with 187 points in 2016-21.
  • Pittsburgh has scored at least 16 points in 29 straight playoff games, extending its NFL record in that area but that’s not making up for the recent blowouts.
  • Pittsburgh is the only NFL team with an active 5-game losing streak in the playoffs where it failed to cover the spread in each game.

Pittsburgh’s best hope in this game was for it to be played during whiteout conditions with heavy snow and wind, increasing the likelihood of randomness like fumbles. But after watching it play out at its rescheduled time on Monday in fairer cold conditions, I’m not so sure Buffalo still doesn’t win comfortably.

Not when Josh Allen had 1 fe”r rushing yard than the 75 yards the duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined for. The Steelers were supposed to be the more physical team that leaned on their backs, but James Cook outrushed them too with 79 yards on 18 carries for Buffalo. Most of Allen’s damage was on his 52-yard touchdown run, which featured some really poor tackling from the Steelers, a common theme on the day.

Without T.J. Watt available, the Steelers struggled to force any splash plays against the Bills, who did not even flirt with a turnover. No real dangerous throws from Allen, and they had no fumbles to lose. Since 2017, the Steelers are now 2-13-1 when Watt plays fewer than 50% of the snaps in a game.

It is hard to decide which side of the ball hurt the Steelers more in this one. The offense came out playing scared and taking almost no deep shots to the wide receivers. Pittsburgh’s only 20-yard play in the game was a 33-yard gain by tight end Pat Freiermuth, who fumbled at the end of the play and was fortunate it was ruled to go out of bounds because it sure looked like Buffalo recovered it in bounds.

George Pickens was less fortunate on a fumble that set up Allen for a 29-yard touchdown drive that took one play as he found Dalton Kincaid wide open. When it looked like the Steelers were going to cut the 14-0 lead in half, Mason Rudolph made his worst throw in the red zone to waste Pittsburgh’s longest drive (88 yards) with an interception. Allen made his big touchdown run from there to build a 21-0 lead, a big early hole being the common lead in every Pittsburgh playoff loss during this streak.

A blocked field goal saved this from total blowout territory as that led to a 33-yard touchdown drive before the half ended. But even that sequence showed just how poorly prepared the Steelers are for these big games. The Buffalo punter was injured on the blocked field goal. Instead of using his timeouts to try to make Buffalo punt in the last minute of the half, Tomlin sat on his timeouts and only called one on 2nd-and-17 with 2 seconds left? What good does that do? Allen took a knee to end it. After a first-down sack, the Steelers should have been using those 3 timeouts to get a punt block ready. Just poorly managed all around.

After Rudolph threw his second touchdown of the game to Calvin Austin to make it 24-17 in the fourth quarter, this got a little interesting. But the Bills easily drove for quality play after quality play on a 70-yard drive that ended in another touchdown after awful tackling from Minkah Fitzpatrick and company led to Shakir scoring from 17 yards out to make it 31-17 with 6:27 left.

That’s game. A missed 27-yard field goal by the Bills after the Steelers turned it over on downs is the only reason we aren’t talking up 34 points as the new piss-poor scoring standard for this defense in the postseason.

I mentioned at the beginning that Tomlin hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season. If he returns next season for Year 8 of his playoff win drought, it’ll only be the fourth time a team has done that with a coach in the Super Bowl era. Jim Mora (Saints) and Marvin Lewis (Bengals) infamously never won a playoff game in their career. Don Shula’s 8-year drought in Miami (1974-81) led to a Super Bowl loss in 1982, but that was a different league back then. You didn’t have 7 teams making the playoffs in each conference, and he had multiple seasons where he finished 10-4 and didn’t even make the tournament.

The Steelers shouldn’t have been expected to win this game, especially without Watt, but at what point does hanging onto a streak of non-losing seasons prevent the team from ever getting back to real Super Bowl contention? This is purgatory. There’s no high draft pick and quarterback fix to come out of this season, and it’s not like the effort was all that respectable here. Hell, even Miami lost 34-31 and covered the spread with Skylar Thompson at quarterback in Buffalo in the wild card round last year. They at least forced turnovers.

SOS is supposed to be a distress call for help, but when it comes to the Steelers, it’s like the organization is content with the same old shit.

Eagles at Buccaneers: My Apologies to the 1986 Jets and 2022 Vikings

I just want to start by saying I apologize to the 2022 Vikings for comparing the 2023 Eagles when they were 10-1 to your team. The Vikings actually finished with 13 wins and put up a fight in their home playoff loss to the Giants, which came down to the final drive.

I also have to apologize for comparing the Eagles to the 1986 Jets, the only other team to start 10-1 and not get to 12 wins. The Jets rebounded in time for the playoffs to beat the Chiefs in the wild card round and gave a superior Cleveland team hell in the divisional round in a double overtime loss.

After scoring a record number of points (35) for a Super Bowl loser last year, the Eagles scored a season-low 9 points in a 23-point loss to the Buccaneers in the wild card round, completing their full collapse. We will have a new NFC champion again. Only the 2013-14 Seahawks have repeated since 1999.

They knew it was going to be tough going in without A.J. Brown, but DeVonta Smith stepped up with 8 catches for 148 yards. But the running game was held to just 42 yards on 15 carries after the Eagles were the only team to smack the Bucs for 200 yards in Week 3, which feels like an eternity ago now.

Philadelphia’s tackling also made Pittsburgh’s look good. Was there a tackling ban in Pennsylvania passed over the weekend? This was an atrocious effort from a team that looked like it gave up on the season. Jason Kelce’s career possibly ending on a sour note like this is sad.

My favorite bet in this game was the under (43.5), which hit to wrap up 2023 as a season where the under was 15-5 on Monday nights. Loved that bet all season, but I sure did not expect to see Baker Mayfield throw for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns after he could barely move in Carolina in Week 18. But he looked good, and he’s done something Tom Brady couldn’t: win a playoff game with Todd Bowles as his coach.

But you knew it wasn’t Philly’s night when the Brotherly Shove was stopped on a 2-point conversion in the second quarter when the Eagles got a penalty to put the ball at the 1-yard line. The Bucs got extremely low on the play, and the Eagles didn’t get their normal push, and it helped when you send a linebacker high at Jalen Hurts and grab him by the facemask. That definitely should have been a penalty, but now we’ll wait to see if the league makes any move against this team’s favorite play in the offseason.

I thought for sure we’d get only our second game with a game-winning drive opportunity out of this one, but that went to shit in a hurry late in the third quarter. Down 16-9, Hurts tried too hard on a 3rd-and-6 and found himself retreating to his end zone despite the line of scrimmage being at his 14. Instead of throwing the ball away, he dug the hole deeper and took a safety due to the penalty for intentional grounding, the right call.

That made it 18-9, then two plays later, some more of that horrific tackling left Trey Palmer open for a 56-yard touchdown. I would have tried the 2 to make it 26-9, a three-score game, but the Eagles already looked so beaten down that 25-9 was just fine.

But that little sequence killed any chance of a close finish. Mayfield even hit another blitz with a 23-yard touchdown to Chris Godwin for good measure to make it 32-9.

This is the kind of loss that could get Nick Sirianni fired just one year removed from a Super Bowl loss. Hell, they had the best record in the NFL in Week 12 not even 2 full months ago.

The data always said 10-1 was a mirage. The eye test never passed for this year’s team. But to fall this far so quickly, even I am a little surprised this happened.

The NFC truly does love a flash in the pan.

Next week: I think they saved the best game both days for the night slot with Chiefs-Bills the best choice to close the weekend. After all these runaway games, it sure would be nice to get an epic divisional round much like we got in 2021 when every game was decided at the end with two of the matchups the same (GB-SF and BUF-KC). We’ll see what happens but there is usually at least one road upset in this round.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 18

Just like that, we have made it through all 272 regular-season games in the 2023 NFL season. In Game No. 272, the Buffalo Bills pulled off a stunning turnaround from 6-6 to 11-6 and the No. 2 seed, coming back to win the AFC East for the fourth year in a row on a day the Patriots officially hit rock bottom as we likely saw the last of Bill Belichick on the sideline there.

The Steelers and Packers are back in the playoffs. We have a division with only winning teams for the first time since 1935. The winner of the NFC South is (barely) above .500 this season.

And not one goddamn tie all season, a huge win in my book.

As for the Week 18 drama, there were only 9 games with a comeback opportunity, but they were focused in the right games with playoff implications like Steelers-Ravens, Texans-Colts, Jaguars-Titans, Bears-Packers, and Bills-Dolphins.

But before we recap the final 16 games of the regular season, this is my favorite time to review how my preseason predictions for final team records fared. I put in a ton of work on these over the summer as I ended up doing 3 articles per team, so there was a lot of research to come up with fresh angles even if I was ultimately arriving at the same conclusion for each team.

Despite some concerns, I am happy to say I was off by an average of 2.06 wins, my 2nd-most accurate predictions since 2013. I nailed 6 teams to their exact record, including both No. 1 seeds, and I was within 2 games for 21-of-32 teams. I could have had 8 teams with an exact record, which would have been my personal best, but that damn Drew Lock touchdown drive against the Eagles in Seattle did me in. Likewise, I never imagined Patrick Mahomes would give the Raiders 14 points in 7 seconds on turnovers at home on Christmas.

There were 4 teams that I was off by 5-to-6 games for, and you can probably guess one as I made them a huge part of my season story, only to see that go up in smoke after 4 snaps in Week 1:

Yep, I had Aaron Rodgers leading the Jets to a 12-5 record and the No. 5 seed, essentially swapping places with the Dolphins, who I had getting swept by the Jets and finishing 9-8 and out of the playoffs. So much for that when his Achilles tore in Week 1. I’m not sure the Jets would have been an elite team this year with that line and struggles to run the ball, but I think the playoffs were certainly doable with Rodgers.

The first-year success of the Colts and Texans definitely took me by surprise in the AFC South. Missed badly on both of those teams, but I don’t think I’m alone in that. C.J. Stroud was kind of the bland rookie quarterback in this class. Anthony Richardson had the “wow factor” with the ability to run (but apparently his durability slider was turned off). Bryce Young was supposed to be this Improv Short King, but he only got his coach fired after 11 games and Carolina had one of the worst seasons ever. Stroud just hit early and was so impressive in that Bobby Slowik, a Kyle Shanahan disciple, offense with receivers that took a huge leap forward like Nico Collins and rookie Tank Dell.

As for the Rams, my initial thought on them was they’d be a sneaky wild card team this year with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald coming back healthy. But once I started digging into the roster, I had no clue who most of these other 50 guys were. Puka Nacua? Never heard of him. Kyren Williams? Who cares? But it was Puka stepping up early, Kyren coming around later, and this offense looks strong, and the defense has been respectable despite the massive turnover. Great job by Sean McVay and company to get to this point.

Those were my biggest misses, but for a season that I billed as the year of uncertainty, I’m proud of these results overall. Roughly a quarter of the league had a season-ending injury to their primary quarterback. Only 9 teams started the same quarterback in every game (lowest since 1999). A couple of playoff teams (Steelers, Bills) fired their offensive coordinator more than halfway through the season. It was a challenging season filled with blowouts in big matchups and so many low-scoring games on Sunday and Monday nights.

But I am ready for the playoffs, and my playoff picks in the AFC are what I’m most proud of as I can’t imagine many people nailed the top 3 seeds going the way they did, especially with the Bengals favored in the AFC North and the Chiefs favored to repeat, and I also had the Steelers getting the No. 7 seed with a 10-7 record.

  • 1, Baltimore (13-4)
  • 2. Buffalo (12-5)
  • 3. Kansas City (12-5)
  • 4. Jacksonville (10-7)
  • 5. NY Jets (12-5)
  • 6. Cincinnati (11-5)
  • 7. Pittsburgh (10-7)

My NFC picks were far less stellar, only getting 4-of-7 teams right (all fairly obvious ones), and none in the right seed.

  • 1. Philadelphia (12-5)
  • 2. San Francisco (12-5)
  • 3. New Orleans (12-5)
  • 4. Detroit (9-8)
  • 5. Dallas (12-5)
  • 6. Atlanta (9-8)
  • 7. Minnesota (8-9)

The Saints and Falcons were the teams I was high on because of the schedule, but they blew that golden opportunity. Hats off to Tampa Bay for overcoming the fact that they had to play the Eagles, Bills, and 49ers (went 0-3 in those games too) and the other NFC South teams didn’t, and Tampa still won the division. I liked Baker Mayfield to have a better individual season than Tom Brady did in 2022, but I figured he wouldn’t catch the breaks in close games to have a better record. But Baker surprisingly kept the turnovers low and they got to 9-8.

Finally, I think the Vikings are a playoff team if Kirk Cousins doesn’t tear his Achilles, so chalk that up to an Achilles injury in each conference screwing me up here. Cousins was playing some of his best ball when that happened, so we had to experience some fever dreams with Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens. Too bad. At least the close-game regression was real as the Vikings played a league-high 14 close games but only finished 6-8 in them a year after they were 11-0.

But we’ll have other opportunities to review the season and where things stand. Let’s get through these 16 games before I get into playoff mode.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

AFC EAST

We had one game for the division title and the other for a 15-game winning streak to come crashing down as Bill Belichick just had to fvck me out of a $$$ parlay win one last time.

Bills at Dolphins: The Paper Tiger Disintegrates

From 6-6 and the No. 11 seed at the bye week to 11-6 and the No. 2 seed going into the playoffs, no one circled the wagons like the Buffalo Bills this season. The numbers were always there when they were 6-6 with a scoring differential of over 100 points. Just stop turning the ball over so much and stop blowing these fourth-quarter leads in egregious fashion like the Denver game where they had 12 men on the field for a field goal that was missed, or when they let Mac Jones lead the single clutch touchdown drive of his career.

But the Bills pulled off this AFC East title with some help from the Dolphins, who choked away a Week 14 game to the Titans that I would call the worst blown lead of 2023. Then the Dolphins were blown out 56-19 in Baltimore a week ago, continuing their pattern of underperforming on both sides of the ball in big games, especially on offense and on the road. They have also been injured with some key players (Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, Bradley Chubb, Xavien Howard, etc.) missing this game.

But the Bills have their own injuries to deal with, and even in this game, the Bills tried desperately to throw this game away with 3 more turnovers from Josh Allen, who also botched the end of the first half with a completion short of the goal line with the Bills out of timeouts. No points there to go along with the turnovers all happening deep in Miami territory.

The Buffalo defense had Allen’s back in this one. After Allen’s lost fumble killed another scoring chance in a 14-7 game to end the third quarter, the defense forced a quick punt from the Dolphins. Deonte Harty returned that punt 96 yards for a game-tying touchdown with 13:42 left.

Allen led a go-ahead touchdown drive with 7:16 left while the Dolphins had another quick 3-and-out drive. Allen looked like he could put the game away on his own terms instead of putting it in the defense’s shaky hands again. He had an incredible 15-yard scramble on a 3rd-and-13, then the Bills faced a critical 4th-and-1 at the Miami 37 at the 2:00 warning.

I’m not kicking a 55-yard field goal unless maybe I have Justin Tucker as my kicker. Tyler Bass hasn’t earned that kind of reputation for me. I also hate to trust a defense that has already blown 4 leads in the fourth quarter, and you know Miami is more likely to go for a game-winning 2-point conversion than your average team would. No, I’m going to trust my insane quarterback to run up the gut for that first down on the sneak.

Except the Bills tried that and Allen was stopped short by the slimmest of margins. Oh well, I liked the decision anyway. Now it was on the defense, and after a couple of shaky snaps, they almost came away with a pick. On the very next play, they got the pick as Tua threw an awful pass that was picked off by Taylor Rapp with 1:13 left to seal the division title.

The Bills were definitely looking shaky for the playoffs, let alone the AFC East when they were 6-6. But this 5-0 streak has been built on mostly close wins outside of the Dallas rout. This was the fourth time since Week 14 that Buffalo won a game by no more than 7 points. They had 2 such wins in their previous 13 games.

Now the Bills get to host the Steelers, a favorable draw for the wild card round. Then perhaps they will host Kansas City for a change in the divisional round. This isn’t the best Buffalo team since 2020, but maybe it’s the year things fall in place for them. They are winning the close games, Allen is playing great when he’s not turning it over (he was 30-for-36 for 359 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 67 rushing yards outside of the turnover plays), and they are one of the best defensive teams.

The field also contains the weakest Kansas City team in the Patrick Mahomes era and a Baltimore team that has blown it in January before. Maybe this run propels the Bills all the way, or maybe they lose to Mason Rudolph next week.

Either way, it will be must-see TV. The Bills always belonged in this tournament and now we get to see if they can make it pay off.

Jets at Patriots: Hoods Up

Christ, you know it’s over when Belichick is losing a 17-3 snow game at home to the Jets. There goes the 15-game winning streak against the Jets. It was bound to end this year, but we thought that’d be at the hands of Aaron Rodgers, not a 70-yard passing performance from Trevor Siemian.

The conditions looked brutal, and I can’t imagine many players were enjoying themselves on that field. But it meant a little more to the Jets knowing about the 15-game losing streak and how this was expected to be Belichick’s last game as coach of the Patriots.

Bailey Zappe had 31 net passing yards on 37 pass plays thanks to the 7 sacks the Jets ripped through the line for. Just when you thought Belichick had one last fluke of a win in him after a Zappe interception was fumbled back to the Patriots with 2:44 left in a 9-3 game, Zappe made sure his next throw was intercepted too. Breece Hall hit the 50-yard “FU TD” and that was a wrap at 17-3. With a 4-13 record, Belichick finishes the worst season of his coaching career.

We’ve seen the Patriots without a quarterback. Now we’ll see how long they go without a quarterback and without a coach. That stay in the AFC East basement may be longer than this one season.

AFC SOUTH

We didn’t know for sure Saturday night, but that was the de facto division title game thanks to the Jaguars blowing it on Sunday in Tennessee. C.J. Stroud runs this division now until the Colts can keep Anthony Richardson healthy.

Jaguars at Titans: Full Collapse Revenge

Last year, it was the Titans collapsing with a 7-game losing streak to blow the AFC South after a Week 18 loss to the Jaguars. This year, the Jaguars were 8-3 before collapsing with a 1-5 finish, only beating the Panthers last week. That means Trevor Lawrence lost his final 5 starts of the year.

This game wasn’t all on him as the Titans put on a spirited home effort with Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry perhaps playing their final games for the Titans. Henry rushed for 153 yards and a touchdown.

The Jaguars trailed 28-13 going into the fourth quarter and needed a miracle. After a touchdown pass to Evan Engram, the Jags intercepted Tannehill and set up Lawrence 28 yards away from a tie. But all the inefficiencies in this Jacksonville offense from Lawrence’s inaccurate throws to bad runs to penalties led to a terrible drive that consumed 5 minutes off the clock and ultimately came up empty on fourth down at the 1-yard line. Lawrence tried one of the worst quarterback sneaks you’ll ever see as his initial lunge (a la Drew Brees) was well short, then his stretch didn’t get the job done either.

Lawrence got the ball back with 2:18 and 75 yards to go, and he couldn’t even get a first down. He missed a deep shot to an open Calvin Ridley, then threw wildly inaccurate again on a 4th-and-2 to Engram with 1:47 left. Season over. Jags (9-8) were finished.

Even at 8-3, I had a hard time trusting this Jacksonville team as a serious contender. Maybe they finish the job in the AFC South if Lawrence never gets hurt against the Bengals in Week 13, and he did have multiple injuries since to deal with. But even before that, his play wasn’t vastly improved from last year, and the Ridley connection wasn’t the greatest. Losing Christian Kirk hurt this offense more than gaining Ridley helped it.

Now with the way Houston has finished this season with C.J. Stroud, the Jaguars are going to enter 2024 as second-class citizens in the division they never really owned. They took advantage of Tennessee’s 2022 implosion, and the Titans made sure they got them back on Sunday by taking them out for 2023.

But if a certain quarterback in Indy stays healthy and pans out, both of these teams could be looking up to those other teams for years to come. I think 2024 is the year Lawrence will finally start getting held to a higher standard, and with the day soon coming when we start talking about a second contract, I think it’s in Jacksonville’s best interest to wait that one out.

Texans at Colts: Can’t Be Worse Off at Quarterback and Defense 

This was a game I immediately flipped on my spread and total picks for last Monday night. I’m talking straight up deleting what I was writing and going the opposite way before sending them in.

Changing to the under was a good move, but taking the team (Colts) that was worse at quarterback and defense in a big game during this time of year? What was I thinking? Week 2 when the Colts won 31-20 was eons ago. Hell, Anthony Richardson started that game. What did it matter now?

But this game was there for the taking for Indy on Saturday night. They just fell short, and they did it in a way that has me nervous about Shane Steichen in the big moments next time. But the game also reinforced the idea that he won’t be ready to compete for real in this division until he has a healthy Richardson who can go toe to toe with C.J. Stroud in a game like this. Gardner Minshew was not up for it.

Stroud came out throwing a haymaker with a 75-yard touchdown pass to Nico Collins on Houston’s first offensive snap. But despite that brilliant throw, the Houston offense was being contained, and the Colts got back into it by riding their best player, Jonathan Taylor. He finished with 188 rushing yards and a 49-yard touchdown run that helped tie the game at 14 in the third quarter.

But for all of Taylor’s dominance, it only did further damage to getting Minshew in any sort of rhythm where they could rely on him down the stretch. Note that right after Taylor’s long touchdown run, the Colts dialed up 5 straight runs, then asked Minshew to convert a 3rd-and-9. He couldn’t get a completion, and the Colts missed a 57-yard field goal off the upright. That short field for Houston led to the Texans taking a 17-14 lead on a 51-yard field goal.

After the Colts tied the game, Stroud went to work on a surgical drive in the final quarter. He threw for 82 yards on the drive, which was capped off by a 3-yard run from Devin Singletary. The Texans missed the extra point, leaving the door open for the Colts at 23-17 with 6:20 left.

But make note of the difference in strategy for these teams. While the Texans relied on Stroud, who only got any production out of Collins and tight end Dalton Shultz, the Colts could not rely on Minshew to drive them down the field. It was going to be the run game, which took a hit in efficiency with an injury along the offensive line to Braden Smith. Taylor also temporarily left the game injured and did not look as great down the stretch.

In the last 1.5 quarters, the Colts ran the ball 16 times for 27 yards with a 25% rushing success rate. Eleven of those 16 carries failed to gain more than 2 yards, and the longest run in that stretch was 6 yards.

Minshew was able to hit Josh Downs for a 28-yard gain to get the drive going, but the Colts continued to rely on the run, even choosing to run on 3rd-and-6 and 3rd-and-5 situations that almost every team calls passes for. One such run worked thanks to a penalty on Houston (automatic first down) and the other did convert at the 2-minute warning with the Colts looking to score the touchdown as late as they could.

But everything went to shit after the 2-minute warning hit. The Colts called 2 more Taylor runs, and he went out of bounds both times, burning a total of 12 seconds, saving timeouts for Houston, and setting up a 3rd-and-2. That is counter to the clock strategy if you’re so concerned about not leaving Stroud time to answer in an expected 24-23 game after the touchdown and extra point.

Taylor got the call again on 3rd-and-2 and came up a yard short, setting up a huge 4th-and-1 at the Houston 15. Instead of having a play to run quickly like another Taylor run or a quarterback sneak, the Colts let the clock go down to 1:06 and called a timeout.

What the hell? There’s burning the clock and then there’s taking so damn long that you just blew your shot of getting another possession in case you don’t get this. If you get stopped around 1:20 with 3 timeouts left, at least you can quickly create another possession. But by blowing that timeout, Steichen put the game on this 4th-and-1, and he was still 15 yards away from the end zone on what was not a good night for his offense.

Worse, Taylor came off the field for the pivotal play, and after calling 7 straight runs, now they decided to let Minshew throw to a backup running back in Tyler Goodson, a player with 6 career catches who had no touches on the night.

While the play was there, the throw wasn’t, and Minshew and Goodson failed to connect. The Texans ended up running it three times, taking an intentional safety, and the Colts tried to lateral around the free kick before the game ended. Season over for Indy and Texans in the playoffs.

I really don’t care if he thinks the running back was open and it was a good play. You can’t put your quarterback and cold running back in that spot after calling 7 straight runs. That’s the kind of throw a Drew Brees could make with a blindfold because he is so used to passing throughout the whole game. He’s in rhythm. He’s also much more accurate than Minshew, but the whole process there after the 2-minute warning was mind-blowingly bad.

You can try playing the clock game, but don’t play yourself. The Colts botched this badly and now another season is over short of the postseason. They better hope Richardson stays healthy and can do plays like the Tush Push a la Jalen Hurts, because that’s a sure conversion if Steichen had his Philadelphia guys on that one.

NFC NORTH

The Lions suffered a big injury (Sam LaPorta) on their way to another win over Minnesota that still left them with a No. 3 seed. The Packers closed this time at home in Week 18 to make the playoffs behind a stellar game from Jordan Love and the 3rd-down defense.

Bears at Packers: Matt LaFleur Moves to 10-0 vs. Chicago

I spent more time in the summer researching the Bears than any other team. I landed on a prediction of 7-10 and behind the Packers, who I had finishing 8-9 in Jordan Love’s first season as the starter.

Well, the Packers got to 9-8 thanks to sweeping the Bears in Weeks 1 and 18. It was good enough for the playoffs too just as it would have been last year when the team lost at home to Detroit in the final game of the Aaron Rodgers era.

But Matt LaFleur simply owns the Bears. He is now 10-0 against them and every win has been by at least 7 points. Jordan Love was fantastic in this game, completing 27-of-32 passes for 316 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no picks. He did lose a fumble on a scramble that left the game in some doubt, but the Bears remain one of the worst comeback teams in NFL history under Matt Eberflus and Justin Fields, and they were not able to erase the 8-point deficit in the final quarter.

That doesn’t mean the Packers made it easy in this quick-moving game (2 hours and 35 minutes). There were only 13 possessions in the entire game, and the Packers  wasted a pair in the first half when they missed a short field goal and failed to get one off to end the half, a mental error by the offense.

Fortunately, the Bears never got the ball in the end zone as the Green Bay defense stepped up with 3 sacks on third downs. Their fifth sack of Fields came on a 2nd-and-16 after the Bears reached Green Bay territory, stifling that drive as well. The Packers got the ball back with 6:08 left, and between good runs and smart throws by Love, they ran out the clock on Chicago to secure their playoff berth.

I don’t know if the Packers are a real threat to Dallas right now. But it makes sense that they were a team that improved in the second half of the season given not only Love’s inexperience but just how little experience the rest of the offense (minus running backs) had going into the season. We probably didn’t hammer that point home enough, and it’s not like this is about developing Christian Watson (disappointing year) and Romeo Doubs. It’s been Jayden Reed, a 2nd-round rookie, and Dontayvion Wicks who have been very productive this year. Reed had 112 yards in this game and Wicks caught both of Love’s touchdowns.

Even Bo Melton, a 7th-round pick from 2022 I never even heard of until a week ago, has come on just in time for Green Bay. He had 105 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings last week and another 5 catches for 62 yards in this game.

The Packers are making it work with Love, who finished second in the league with 32 touchdown passes this year. Tale as old as time, the Packers look better off than Chicago at the quarterback position, and that no doubt played a big difference in the latest Green Bay sweep. This could have been the Bears in the 9-8 wild card position if they had stepped up more against the Packers this year.

Now with the No. 1 pick (thanks, Carolina) and the No. 9 pick, we’ll see what the Bears do at the most important roles on the team.

Vikings at Lions: Offense Shines in Pyrrhic Victory

I can understand why the Lions went full pedal this week. They had a very outside shot of getting the No. 2 seed if the Cowboys and Eagles choked (one did). Still, you get nervous playing your studs in a game like this, and sure enough, the Lions lost tight end Sam LaPorta to a hyperextended knee. He’ll likely miss this playoff run unless it reaches the Super Bowl, and even then, we’ll see.

But it is cool to see Detroit win 12 games, something it only did in 1991, the last season the Lions won a playoff game. This game was a lot like the Week 16 win over Minnesota with Nick Mullens approaching another 400-yard day, but he also threw a couple of big picks again. Jared Goff and the offense shined with all the studs scoring touchdowns (LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and Amon-Ra St. Brown).

But LaPorta is a dimension they’ll miss at tight end when they take on the Rams this Sunday night.

NFC EAST

The streak continues. There has not been a repeat winner in the NFC East since the Eagles in 2001-04. Their collapse this year was something to behold, but not necessarily that much of a shock if you paid attention to how they got to 10-1 and how the Cowboys were good at blowing bad teams out.

Cowboys at Commanders: About What You Expected

With a 38-10 win, the Cowboys won the NFC East, secured the No. 2 seed, and notched their 9th win of 20-plus points this year, tying the 1999 Rams for the second most in a season in NFL history. Only the 2007 Patriots (10) had more 20-point wins, and it might be worth noting that neither those Patriots nor Rams won any playoff games by more than 12 points. But they did at least get to the Super Bowl those years with the Rams winning it all.

Dak Prescott has owned Washington his whole career, Sam Howell was lousy down the stretch of 2023, and it’s no surprise the touchdown pass leader threw 4 more scores against the worst defense this year. Ron Rivera should be gone on Monday.

About the only thing that didn’t go well for Dallas was kicker Brandon Aubrey. After making his first 35 field goals this season, he had one blocked from 32 yards and another miss off the upright from 36 yards. Let’s hope that isn’t a sign of the things to come in the playoffs for him after an almost-perfect season.

The Cowboys have high expectations for this postseason now that the Eagles have faded to the wild card, and the only team that’s ahead of Dallas in the standings is San Francisco. We’ve already seen the Cowboys beat the Lions, controversial ending or not.

Time to turn all these fancy numbers into some playoff wins, Dallas.

Eagles at Giants: Viking-Ass Team

On the day the Eagles improved to 10-1 with an overtime win over Buffalo, I said they look more like the 2022 Vikings than they do the 2022 Eagles. The 2022 Vikings are the only team in NFL history to win more than 11 games with a negative scoring differential.

Several people (read: Eagles fans) didn’t like the tweet at the time, but I can only call them when I see them. The 2023 Eagles are my greatest case of fraud detection since the 2019 Patriots started 8-0. The Eagles limped to a 1-5 finish, getting blown out by the 49ers and Cowboys in big games, embarrassing themselves against Drew Lock (Seahawks) and the Cardinals, and now a 27-10 rout at the hands of the lowly Giants.

The Eagles just barely finished with a positive scoring differential (+5), but it is still the 5th lowest for a team with at least 11 wins in NFL history:

The latest loss is the result when your defense continues to get shredded as Tyrod Taylor threw for 297 yards, and the offense suffers too many injuries. DeVonta Smith and D’Andre Swift were already out to start the game. A.J. Brown soon joined them with an injury. Jalen Hurts injured his finger and eventually left the game early after the score grew to 24-0 and the Cowboys were up big on Washington, making the No. 5 seed a near certainty for the Eagles.

Plenty of days to cover the Eagles-Bucs game, so no need to start writing the same narratives I’ll be leaning on this week here. But let’s just say things are trending terribly for this team and it would be a real shock if this led to another deep playoff run from Philly.

NFC SOUTH

The Saints took too long to heat up on offense this year, and their playoff bid came up a game short as Tampa Bay was able to take care of business in Carolina, which completed one of the worst seasons in NFL history.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Back-to-Back Shutouts for Carolina

It was ugly but the Buccaneers leaned on their defense and the fact they were playing one of the worst teams in the Super Bowl era to pull out a 9-0 win and the NFC South title for the third year in a row.

Baker Mayfield was hurting throughout the game but at least he still threw for over 100 yards, unlike Bryce Young who finished with 94 yards, and nearly half of that came on a 42-yard pass to D.J. Chark that was fumbled through the end zone, a game-saving and possibly season-saving play for the Bucs in this one.

Carolina’s kicker situation wasn’t great this year, and after missing a 52-yard field goal to end the third quarter, the Buccaneers turned that good field position into a 39-yard field goal and a 9-0 lead with 10:18 left.

If you’ve been following the Panthers this year or really the last 5 years, you know that’s basically an insurmountable lead for this team. The Bucs forced a strip sack and the offense ran out the final 6:19 to clinch the division with a 9-8 record, which is better than 8-9 the last I checked. At least one Florida team wasn’t going to blow the division title this Sunday.

The Panthers finish the season with 2 wins and 0 snaps with a fourth-quarter lead. Both wins came on walk-off field goals.

  • Even the 1976 Buccaneers (0-14) blew 1 4th-quarter lead.
  • Even the 2008 Lions (0-16) blew 4 4th-quarter leads.
  • Even the 2017 Browns (0-16) blew 1 4th-quarter lead.

The Panthers are the first team since the 2008 Browns to get shutout in consecutive games. Carolina, you were truly awful this year.

Falcons at Saints: Hit the Road, Art

This game was my favorite over (42.5) of the week as both teams moved the ball very well when they met earlier this season. I just didn’t think the Saints (48 points) would cover the over themselves after a little “fvck you touchdown” to end it that set off Arthur Smith at midfield:

After another 7-10 season with baffling usage of his offensive players and failing to take advantage of a weak schedule, this is the end of the road for Smith in Atlanta. The team barely waited until midnight to announce his firing.

What a way to go out, a 31-point loss to your main rival and that little tantrum. Do I think he had a point about the Saints rubbing it in with barely a minute left in a 41-17 game? Yeah, I think that was weak. But he could have expressed it better than this.

Derek Carr threw 4 touchdowns and finished the season strong, but it was just too late after a slow start for the offense. The 9-8 record wasn’t good enough for the playoffs, and you can look a that 1-point loss in Green Bay as the decisive one since that’s what got the Packers ahead of New Orleans. The Saints missed a late field goal in that one as Blake Grupe showed some serious choker DNA. Basically, if they kept Wil Lutz as their kicker this year, they’d probably be in the playoffs.

But both teams should be ashamed of not taking advantage of their schedules. They lived up to the expectations of not having many Super Bowl contenders. Hell, even the Jaguars didn’t get to 10 wins and that was supposed to be one of their hardest games alongside Detroit.

AFC NORTH

The Steelers started Week 18 needing a win in rainy Baltimore, and no one really cared about anything in Browns-Bengals except for the outfit worn by Jake Browning’s girlfriend. That backup is winning in life.

Steelers at Ravens: Sweep the Top Seed but Lose to the Pats and Cardinals (Obviously)

When the Steelers nearly turned the ball over 3 times on the opening drive, you could tell the rain was going to be a significant factor. In the end, each team lost 2 fumbles, but the Steelers had an extra 4 fumbles that they did not lose.

Mason Rudolph still managed to complete 18-of-20 passes in the rain, but 71 of his 152 yards came on a short throw to Diontae Johnson that was mostly YAC for the game-winning touchdown to break a 7-7 tie to start the fourth quarter. Is that the kind of play that happens if the Ravens had Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton playing in the secondary? Hard to say, but it gives Rudolph 3 touchdown passes of 60-plus yards this year, which is behind only Tua Tagovailoa (4) for the 2023 lead. That’s an absurd but true stat. I’m not convinced that means Rudolph is the long-term answer at quarterback, but some of it does speak to his willingness to give these receivers chances that I think Kenny Pickett lacks in his game right now. That’s why I’d start Rudolph in the playoffs.

And yes, there will be playoffs after the Jaguars blew it in Tennessee and punched Pittsburgh’s ticket early on Sunday. Unfortunately, the Steelers are unlikely to have T.J. Watt after friendly fire took him down with an MCL injury in this game. It’s considered a multiple week injury, but you know he’ll at least lobby to play. Just can’t see that being a smart move or ultimately allowed by the team.

It deserves an asterisk for the rested starters (not to mention the dropped passes in Week 5) but the Steelers did sweep the top-seeded Ravens and were the only team to beat them by more than 3 points this year. If Pittsburgh somehow did pull out a win next week and went to Baltimore for the divisional round, that could be amusing as Lamar Jackson has been I the league since 2018 and has literally never had a good game against the Steelers. He rarely plays them too, but Pittsburgh has been getting the upper hand in this rivalry. But good luck getting past the wild card round.

Browns at Bengals: Still the Coach of the Year

Why exactly did the Browns start Jeff Driskel at quarterback? Felt like Kevin Stefanski, who should still win Coach of the Year, wanted to show off and win a game with a 5th different quarterback this year. But Driskel was dreadful, the Bengals led 31-0, and only in garbage time did Driskel deliver a couple of touchdown throws. But hey, Browns over 13.5 points still hit.

The game did make some history though as the 2023 AFC North is the first division since the 1935 West to have nothing but teams with a winning record. The Bengals finished 9-8 and the other teams all won at least 10 games and made the playoffs.

NFC WEST

Not as many stakes here as the 49ers and Rams rested key starters, but both games had a fourth-quarter comeback with the winning team converting a 2-point conversion in a 21-20 final.

Rams at 49ers: The Rare Carson Wentz Comeback

It’s kind of fitting that a Carson Wentz-led comeback of 13 points in the second half against a No. 1 seed would only happen in a game where both teams were not all that interested in winning. If the Rams truly cared about making sure they won and got the No. 6 seed, they would have started Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Aaron Donald, and maybe Cooper Kupp.

They did play Puka Nacua, who stayed in long enough to set the rookie records for yards and catches in a season. He also caught a helpful touchdown from Wentz, who ended up running 17 times for 56 yards and a touchdown. I guess Sean McVay didn’t really care since this could be one of the last auditions that Wentz gets as a starter in the NFL.

But the 49ers didn’t score on their 4 second-half possessions, the Rams took the lead on a touchdown drive that got jumpstarted with a 48-yard flag for defensive pass interference, and Sam Darnold was unable to set up a field goal for the 49ers, who will be content with the bye week.

But it is a bit concerning that the 49ers are 1-4 in close games and 0-4 at 4QC/GWD opportunities. This will come up during the month in playoff previews, but you’re just not likely to get through a whole Super Bowl run, even if it’s 3 games long, without beating someone good in a close game. This team will have to show it can do that and it’s not like we don’t have years of evidence in San Francisco of Shanahan-coached teams not stepping up in these moments. This loss didn’t matter, but the next time the season will be on the line.

But good for the Rams getting to 10 wins as I really wanted to pick them as a dark horse for the wild card this summer, then I got scared away after not recognizing their roster outside of Stafford, Kupp, and Donald. Really good effort from McVay and company here. And we get to see the perfect wild card matchup in Detroit next Sunday night.

Seahawks at Cardinals: Matt Prater’s Lousy Day

Congrats to James Conner for clinching his first 1,000-yard rushing season in the NFL. He was my favorite prop pick in Week 18, and he delivered in a big way with 150 yards on the ground and 54 more through the air.

It’s just too bad the Cardinals let it go to waste as well as a sweet trick play on a field goal for a touchdown pass from Kyler Murray to Trey McBride to take a 20-13 lead in the fourth quarter.

Matt Prater could have basically iced the game with 3:00 left on a 43-yard field goal that would have made it 23-13 after the Seahawks used their final timeout, but the normally reliable kicker missed. The Cardinals folded like a cheap suit on defense, and in just 4 plays, the Seahawks were in the end zone on a 34-yard touchdown from Geno Smith to Tyler Lockett, who also caught the 2-point conversion to go up 21-20 with 1:54 left.

At this point, it was already clear from Green Bay that the Packers were winning the game and going to the playoffs, keeping Seattle out. That probably influenced the 2-point call too.

The Cardinals still had plenty of time to answer, but after a Conner run to the 30, they botched the end game. Not quite as bad as Steichen and the Colts on Saturday night, but still pretty bad with Murray running out of bounds on a play that took time and went down as a 2-yard sack. Then a Conner run lost a yard.

Prater can blast kicks from 50-plus yards, but he was already shaky on the previous kick and again failed to deliver on the 51-yard game-winning field goal as time expired. The Cardinals finish 4-13 and will have some decisions to make. The Seahawks, who will finish with a league-high 6 game-winning drives, are 9-8 again, but this time they didn’t get the help from Green Bay losing at home to get in a tournament they were unlikely going to advance in past next week.

AFC WEST

Stakes? No, nothing to see here.

Broncos at Raiders: Nope, We Don’t Care

The Raiders won 27-14 as both teams finished 8-9. Next.

Chiefs at Chargers: Easton Stuck in Goal to Go

The Chiefs set milestones aside and rested Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce (among others) with the No. 3 seed a lock. Easton Stick somehow dropped back 63 times, including 13 runs for 77 yards, in a weird game for the Chargers, but they blew it inside the 5-yard line early and late. A Stick fumble was scooped up for a 97-yard touchdown return, then the Chargers couldn’t get it in late and settled for a field goal to take a 12-10 lead. Backup starter Blaine Gabbert had enough legs for a couple of scrambles to set up a game-winning field goal (13-12), and the Chargers of course had no answer in the final minute.

The 2023 Chargers finish 1-10 at 4QC/GWD opportunities and lead the league with 5 blown leads in the fourth quarter. The Chargering brand is still strong.

Next week: It’s the playoffs. I’ll have links to in-depth previews and betting picks (props, upset pick, computer picks, etc.) for every game. The real fun might not start until the divisional round, but there are still plenty of stories from these games. With the way this season has gone, who knows, the Super Bowl teams may be in action on wild card weekend.

NFL Week 17 Predictions: All Eyes on Baltimore Edition

Whether it was by luck or skill, the NFL has put together quite a great Week 17 schedule for the last bit of narrative building before next week’s finale is all divisional rematches.

You get an excellent choice for Saturday night between the Lions and Cowboys, two teams still competing for a lot in the NFC. We get to see if Dallas is going to simply revert to looking unbeatable at home after a couple of tough road losses. That won’t do them any good in the playoffs if they have to travel every week, and maybe they could even end up in Detroit, a team that’s clinched the NFC North and is now looking for that first playoff win since beating the 1991 Cowboys. This is a big game for them to show how good they are in this NFC.

I’d prefer the big one in Baltimore to be a 4:25 kickoff, but for a change we get a monster game at 1 p.m. on a Sunday. This one has everything from control of the No. 1 seed to the MVP race to Tyreek Hill also pursuing 2,000 yards. Miami is 2-0 against the Ravens since 2021 thanks in part to beating them deep on passes. There was that wild 42-38 comeback win last year, literally the only time Mike McDaniel has beat a quality road opponent in his career. It was also arguably the best game of Lamar Jackson’s career, and we’ll see if he can come close to anything like that again as his stats are not up to par for the MVP he is favored to win. We’ve seen teams falter immediately after getting praised all year, and everything is turning up Baltimore right now. This game has a chance to clean up so many narratives going into the final week.

Later in the afternoon, you’d normally expect big things from Bengals-Chiefs and that growing rivalry, but it is a little different now that the Bengals don’t have Joe Burrow and are in some trouble for the playoffs. But it is still an important game, and the Chiefs need to show up after last week’s embarrassing effort. If the Chiefs lose this game, the Bengals will have the same 9-7 record and a H2H win to boot. Fortunately for the Chiefs they are playing in the division known for firing coaches and trying to bench a QB at the midseason point after a big win. But this one still has some drama to it. Can Mahomes rebound? Can Travis Kelce step up against the worst defense against tight ends? Is Jake Browning some hidden gem when he’s not playing the Steelers, and can he pull out another 3-point win for the Bengals over the Chiefs? I’m still interested in this one.

This Week’s Articles

NFL 2023 Year in Review: The Unstable Quarterback Position in a Changing League – My epic 7,500 word review of the year that was 2023 for the quarterback position. I touch on all 32 teams and everything from the rash of injuries to Patrick Mahomes’ struggles to the way Tua and Brock Purdy are destroying the discourse, forcing Lamar and Hurts into MVP by team record, the disastrous 2021-22 drafts, the rookie class led by C.J. Stroud, if anyone is actually thriving this year, and what if Joe F’n Flacco has another Super Bowl run in him for the Browns?

NFL Week 17 Predictions

What an odd game on Thursday night. I had Browns winning 20-10 and they about blew that total out of the water by the first quarter. But despite 51 points in the first half, there wasn’t a single touchdown after halftime.

DET-DAL: The spread was originally Dallas -6, which I was liking Detroit for. But the closer it gets to Dallas, the more I think the Cowboys win by a touchdown at home. Should be a good one though, but just keep in mind games with a total over 50 points this year have seen the under go 10-1.

MIA-BUF: For the big one, I think the Ravens are legitimate and the Dolphins are paper tigers. Miami struggles to score against teams like this, and the Ravens have the No. 1 defense. Baltimore avenges the blown lead last year and wins this one.

Bills avoid a NE sweep but it’s hard to trust them to make anything look easy right now. They nearly blew it against Easton Stick last week.

Probably will avoid TEN-HOU. Titans blew a 13-point lead a couple of weeks ago but struggled to score on the Texans. C.J. Stroud is back. Trusting Houston there.

Raiders are showing me something on defense to think they can get after Gardner Minshew and make that one interesting. Need to complete some passes on offense though.

Hedging on CAR-JAX with Trevor Lawrence expected to miss his first NFL game due to injury. C.J. Beathard is hard to trust, Bryce Young is coming off his best game, and the Jaguars are struggling. Should be interesting and I expect the worst given my AFC South futures bet from before the season.

Do the Eagles ever win by 12 points these days? Arizona was the only team to push them in the 4Q during their dominant 8-0 start in 2022. Hoping for a repeat and a James Conner TD run.

Bucs are simply outplaying the Saints and I think they take control of the division with a sweep there.

PIT-SEA is a perfect game for the wild card races as neither team really belongs in the tournament, but someone is getting to 9-7 here. I have a parlay in my Scott’s Seven Picks that sees a game decided by 1-4 points either way.

I don’t know if it will be by exactly 3 points again, but I do think Bengals push the Chiefs in a good game. Still taking KC to pull it out.

Football Gods are chiming in with a middle finger to Sean Payton and the Broncos for the Russell Wilson treatment. I’ll take Easton Stick over Jarrett Stidham.

I really wanted to see 2023 end with Nick Mullens passing for 500 yards, 7 TDs, and 5 INTs against a Joe Barry defense, but I guess we’ll have to settle for Jaren Hall lighting it up instead.

See you in 2024, but first let’s win something big since this damn goofy regular season is almost over.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 16

I debated how I wanted to handle posting this week with the holiday, and I just had to wait for Monday to see what the Ravens and 49ers did. Little did I expect the Chiefs would also blow a game at home to the Raiders, but it was that kind of day and I got it covered along with Sunday’s action.

I’m not recapping the Saturday games below.

I will point out it’s probably not a coincidence that Pittsburgh’s only 2 games with 30 points and only 2 games with over 380 yards since 2022 were all in games against Cincinnati. They just have something on that divisional opponent. But it was good to see a legitimate offense for a change, and Mason Rudolph giving a talented receiver like George Pickens opportunities down the field had a lot to do with it. Do they go back to Kenny Pickett for the Seattle game? Probably so given Tomlin’s past, but we’ll see what happens.

As for Buffalo, let’s just say that 24-22 win against Easton Stick was underwhelming and doesn’t inspire much confidence this team will beat the Patriots, the Dolphins in Miami, and then go on a playoff run. But at least they came back to win this one and Josh Allen’s throw to Khalil Shakir on 3rd-and-4 was possibly a season-saver for Buffalo.

In all, Week 16 had 9 games with a comeback opportunity.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Ravens at 49ers: Game of the Ye-Yeah We Need to Stop Hyping These Up

You almost never get to see the top seeds facing off this late in the regular season. When the Seahawks and Colts met in 2005, the Colts blew that game off for playoff rest by quickly resting starters, so it wasn’t even a real matchup.

This could have been something special, and for a half, it was. Both defenses were giving up plays and making plays. Points were going on the board as Baltimore led 16-12. That’s exactly the kind of half you love to see in a game like this.

The Ravens intercepted Brock Purdy 3 times in the half, but the first one was the worst as he didn’t see the defender late in the red zone. The others were tipped balls that were just unfortunate bounces. Lamar Jackson made some plays but also got the scoring started for San Francisco with a ridiculous safety for a grounding call after he retreated 20 yards to the end zone.

Again, it was a fun half as both teams love to take control early. The Ravens are better known for blowing leads, but Kyle Shanahan-coached teams are not known at all for coming back. That’s why you had to feel some real nervousness at halftime with the 16-12 deficit even if the 49ers survived the 3 interceptions to that margin.

But this game basically was decided in a 100-second span to start the second half. The 49ers gave up a big punt return plus a penalty for a huge loss in field position, and the Ravens turned that short field into a quick touchdown to go up 23-12. On the very next snap from scrimmage, Purdy was hit and intercepted as Patrick Queen took the ball to the San Francisco 9. One snap later, Jackson found Zay Flowers for a 9-yard touchdown.

Boom. Just like that, it was 30-12 and the 49ers needed their biggest comeback since 2011. Time was there and the Ravens have blown worse, but the confidence killer that is a 4-pick parade cannot be understated. The Ravens bypassed a 4th-and-1 from the 1 to take a 25-point lead for a field goal and a 21-point lead, but that was one of the last strategic moments of relevance in the game.

Purdy suffered a stinger in the fourth quarter and Sam Darnold came in and finished the drive for a touchdown. The Ravens went 3-and-out, Darnold was still dealing, and this looked like it might have potential for a wild finish if the 49ers could score another touchdown before the 2-minute warning to make it a 33-26 game. But they royally blew that after getting a 1st-and-goal from the 2 with 2:16 left. Darnold took a huge sack, the 49ers were called for a false start, and he eventually threw a pick on 4th-and-goal from the 17 with 1:00 left. Game over.

Put me on record for thinking a Super Bowl rematch between these teams could potentially be lousy. Granted, the 49ers did for the most part contain Baltimore’s running game outside of one 30-yard scramble by Jackson, who only had 15 yards on his other 6 runs. It also was close to being a 7-point game despite the 49ers being down 4-0 in the turnover department (4-1 if we include Jackson’s grounding safety). You can’t count on a couple of deflected picks always going your way. Ask the Ravens. They had a tipped pick-6 go against them in the fourth quarter in their loss to Cleveland this year.

I just think the 49ers are a front-running team, even more than Baltimore, and they are not good at coming back in games. Those early picks threw things off for Purdy all night and he just never recovered. It also didn’t help that the line, which has a weakness in pass pro, looked overmatched, and that was true even before Trent Williams was injured.

As for the excessive amount of MVP talk coming from this game for Purdy, Lamar, and CMC, I don’t feel like getting into it tonight. Let the last 2 weeks play out, but it just sounds absurd to think this one game should drastically change the odds on what is supposed to be a season-long performance award. Somehow, we have let it devolve into Super Bowl RINGZ logic where it should go to the player who goes undefeated in Weeks 15-18 no matter how they played. Screw that. The problem is this race has been a mess all year, so it’s no surprise things are finishing like this.

The sky isn’t falling for the 49ers, but yeah, they are beatable.

Everyone is this year.

Raiders at Chiefs: Get Cute, Get Cut Up by These Raiders

Yes, I’m sure I liked it better when the Chiefs were losing 1-score games due to dropped passes or stupid penalties before Patrick Mahomes eventually threw incomplete on a 4th-and-forever to end things.

This was something far worse. This was probably the weirdest, ugliest game of the Mahomes era. You could see it early when the Chiefs got out of the first quarter with minus-18 yards of offense, the worst by any NFL team since 2004.

This game could not have been any different from the Week 12 matchup between these teams, a game with no turnovers and where the Chiefs put the ball in the hands of their best weapons (Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice).

Well, the trio of Rice, Kelce, and Pacheco combined on a 74-yard touchdown drive to get the Chiefs on the board after a trick play got Pacheco in the end zone on a 12-yard run. Admittedly, that play had good design. But the Chiefs have a history of running cutesy trick plays against the Raiders, an opponent that is usually among the most outmatched on their schedule, and it can come off as pretty lame like last year when they did their “Snowglobe” play with everyone spinning around before the snap.

On the next snap from scrimmage for the offense after the Pacheco touchdown, they tried a direct snap to him where he then pitched the ball to Mahomes, who couldn’t gather it and the result was a fumble recovered for a touchdown. Brutal and unnecessary backed up in your own end.

To make matters worse, Mahomes floated a lazy pass late to the sideline to Justin Watson on the next snap, and that was intercepted for a touchdown to give the Vegas defense two touchdown returns in 7 seconds to make it 17-7.

That sequence basically lost the game as the passing game took the rest of the day off for the Raiders. Aidan O’Connell had 9 early completions (all on a field goal drive) but did not complete a pass in the final 3 quarters (0-for-10). I’ve never seen anything like it with a team completing all of its passes on one drive in a game. Supposedly it’s the first time since 2000 a team won a game without completing a pass after the first quarter, but I think that’s because the dataset only went back that far. I can’t imagine any other game since the merger has done this.

That was going to be Kansas City’s ticket to pulling off another comeback, but it was just not their day. Harrison Butker missed a 36-yard field goal to end the half, a big miss. Pacheco’s helmet came off twice and he got kicked in the head the second time. He went to get checked on a table on the sideline and the table collapsed on him. The Chiefs looked like a poverty franchise on Christmas.

The Chiefs only touched the ball 4 times in the second half, and that was partly their own fault as they wasted 13 minutes driving only to turn the ball over on downs in Vegas territory.

By the time the offense finally got another drive in the end zone with 2:42 left to make it 20-14, they were basically in 3-and-out or bust mode for the defense. You would think the defense would sell out to stop the run, but the Raiders had no problem finding running lanes for Zamir White, and he finished the Chiefs off with runs of 6, 43, and 15 yards to finish with 145 yards.

Mahomes ended up leading the Chiefs with 10 runs for 53 yards. He set that Next Gen Stats era record in Super Bowl 55 when he had 497 scramble yards before throwing or taking a sack against Tampa. Earlier that season, I believe he was a few yards short of that in a 40-32 loss to the Raiders, a loss where the Chiefs were an 11-point home favorite like they were in this game.

I haven’t seen the number from Next Gen Stats yet, but I have to believe the scramble yards had to be even higher in this game. He probably topped 500 as they had him running for his life. Maybe it wasn’t always necessary, but it sure looked like a quarterback out of confidence with an offensive line that was outmatched against the Raiders.

Hats off to Antonio Pierce for adding some real attitude to this defense. The offense barely contributed to the win, but the defense definitely got after it.

As for the Chiefs, I’m not sure what you can say anymore. This one looked like a failure in coaching to prepare the team for a physical game. They tried to play it cute and make nice highlights at home, and the Raiders just punched them in the mouth, and they couldn’t recover in time. It really might have turned out differently without that fumble touchdown. I just don’t get the call there backed up in your own end. Run a normal play to Pacheco. Throw the ball to Kelce down the field. Get Richie James more involved as he actually looked good. MVS is worthless.

Just do something differently because this is clearly not working, and now you can forget about the playoffs running through Arrowhead. But the reality is the Chiefs will be lucky to even get out of the wild card round at this rate.

Giants at Eagles: They Never Make It Easy

I’d be lying if I said I paid much attention to this game. It was 20-3 at halftime, so it looked like the Eagles were going to finally blow a team out, they got Tommy DeVito whacked (benched for Tyrod Taylor), and Boston Scott should have been cruising to a late touchdown to hit some fun bets.

But that didn’t happen. Scott fumbled a kickoff to start the third, setting up a short field touchdown for the Giants, and they later scored a pick-6 to make it 20-18. But the Eagles had much better offensive flow with Dallas Goedert finally used properly, a good ground attack, and Jalen Hurts still automatic on those sneaks.

But that defense is still unreliable, and this was a 1-score game after they allowed a 69-yard touchdown pass to Darius Slayton. Tyrod had to go 75 yards in 70 seconds and get a 2-point conversion just to force overtime. But he did get to the Philadelphia 26 before holding the ball forever on the final snap before finally throwing a game-ending interception in the end zone to help the Eagles escape with the 33-25 win.

It might not be a game that sells anyone on the Eagles being the top team in the NFC again, but it keeps them in line to win the division.

Cowboys at Dolphins: Paper Tiger Bowl Goes to Miami

These teams are really a perfect matchup for each other as they only bring their A game if the opponent isn’t an A-caliber team, and where the game is played matters too. Yeah, they can drop 45 points on the Commanders, and Tyreek Hill does this cool crouching thing now, but look what happens when you put a real opponent in front of them.

The Cowboys and Dolphins came into Week 16 with the most points scored this year and yet it was a struggle for both to reach 20 points in this game.

Dallas is going to finish this regular season with an 0-4 record on the road against winning teams (1-7 in its last 8 such games going back to 2022), a bad sign for its postseason prospects as a likely wild card team again.

I don’t want to say Dallas lost this game on the opening drive, but it is so hard to make up for wasting half a quarter if you fumble at the 1-yard line. Dallas only had 8 possessions in the game and that was one of them. Just an awful turnover, getting cute with a handoff to the fullback who had 6 touches all season before they tried to give him 4 on the opening drive. It was first down too. Give it to an experienced ball carrier like Tony Pollard. It once again led to Dak Prescott not establishing a real rhythm for the game as he had just 6 completions more than 35 minutes into the game.

This team simply cannot control games on the road against the good teams. We have to hear Dak’s “yeah, here we go!” as the loudest person in the stadium when the Cowboys are at home, but on the road, this offense shrinks, and the defense doesn’t impress either.

Tua Tagovailoa’s quick release didn’t leave many opportunities for the Dallas defense. They got a little lucky too as you can see the skill players were a bit banged up for Miami, including Jaylen Waddle who only had a 50-yard catch on the opening drive. Raheem Mostert left injured at one point, and we know Hill was just coming back from the ankle injury.

Beyond the fumble on the opening drive that was the only turnover in the game, Dallas also lost this one at the end of each half. Miami scored a touchdown before halftime and managed the clock perfectly on the final drive to make sure the Cowboys had no time left after taking the lead.

There was a lot of settling for field goals in this one, and the Dolphins did find a way to blow a 9-point lead in the fourth quarter. It looked like Dallas might fail in the red zone again in a 19-13 game, but they got their choice of defensive pass interference flags on the Dolphins on a 4th-and-4, which felt like a make-up call for the missed grab of CeeDee Lamb’s pants on an earlier down.

Two plays after an awful sack took the ball from the 1 to the 8, Prescott found Brandin Cooks for a nice touchdown. It wound up being Dallas’ final offensive snap, and somehow it was only Cooks’ second catch of the day. Again, how does this offense justify Cooks and Michael Gallup combining for 18 yards? Is targeting 11 players really necessary when you can’t even get your WR2 and WR3 the ball properly?

But props for Miami for taking over with 3:27 left in a 20-19 game and making sure all of the clock was burned before the field goal despite Dallas having four clock stoppages. The running game helped make sure that happened, but not before Hill converted a 3rd-and-3 with a simple YAC play for 10 yards. That play was really the game for Dallas as  Miami likely would have been kicking the field goal with a stop there.

But no stop came, because the Cowboys are just not a serious team on the road in games like this. I can say the same thing about Miami, but this team will have its shot to prove otherwise in Baltimore next week with the No. 1 seed up for grabs.

Lions at Vikings: Party Like It’s 1993

It had been over 40 years (1982) since the Lions went into a season as the outright favorite in their division. It was 30 years (1993) since the last division title for Detroit. With a 30-24 win in Minnesota, the 2023 Lions lived up to the expectations and claimed the NFC North with their 11th win of the season.

The win was largely a celebration of recent draft successes with Amon-Ra St. Brown going over 100 yards and scoring a touchdown, a pair of touchdowns for rookie back Jahmyr Gibbs, and the defense intercepted Nick Mullens four times, including a game-clincher in the final minute with Minnesota 30 yards away from the lead.

It wasn’t the easiest win for the Lions. Justin Jefferson’s 28-yard catch on a 3rd-and-27 is another great addition to his highlight reel, and it looked like it could lead to the go-ahead touchdown. But the constant downfield passing of Mullens, who passed for 411 yards, eventually stung the Vikings again in the worst moment as his pick from the Detroit 30 with 49 seconds left ended the game.

The Vikings (7-8) are in a rough spot after yet another close loss. The defense did a good job in only allowing one 20-yard play to the Lions, but Detroit was methodical and effective in this one. By comparison, the Vikings were volatile and living on the edge all day as every Mullens dropback feels like a turnover opportunity.

But Detroit’s division title is the main story here, and the team still has some games left to earn a top seed and improve its chances to do some damage in the playoffs. Imagine if they renewed their 1950s rivalry with the Cleveland Browns by getting to the first Super Bowl for both teams. Speaking of which…

Browns at Texans: Amari Cooper’s Monster Game

Who knew the key to unlocking Kevin Stefanski’s offense was to add Joe Flacco just a few weeks shy of his 39th birthday? What Cleveland is doing with Flacco continues to defy logic. He just had his third game in a row with at least 42 passes, 311 yards, multiple touchdowns, and a win for the 10-5 Browns.

Not only are they winning with Flacco, but they are leaning on him offensively. The Browns’ backfield only had 27 carries for 58 yards in Houston. Amari Cooper also had arguably the game of his career with 11 catches for 265 yards (franchise record), 2 touchdowns, and a 2-point conversion because the Browns lost their kicker and kept going for 2 in this 36-22 win.

Cooper was sensational from the first snap of the game when he hauled in a 53-yard bomb, a sign of things to come. Meanwhile, Houston’s offense looked lost without C.J. Stroud, and Davis Mills ended up replacing starter Case Keenum in a comeback effort that never got too deep. The Browns led 36-7 at one point.

I kind of joked earlier in the week about Flacco going into Canton if he gets a ring out of this season, but this is some really interesting stuff in Cleveland. You have a great defense that can win it all, you have a team that’s already beat the Ravens and 49ers, the current No. 1 seeds, and now you have a quarterback who already has led one of the most improbable Super Bowl runs in NFL history.

And let me repeat, they already beat the 49ers and Ravens with marginal quarterback play in those games earlier this season, so that silences the schedule argument for what they’ve done with Flacco the last month.

This could end horribly in the wild card round for all we know, but if the Browns keep playing like this, they are a team we have to take seriously. And wouldn’t that be a hell of a lot more fun and easier to do with this Flacco story than if this was Deshaun Watson thriving?

Jaguars at Buccaneers: Pirate Ship vs. Sinking Ship

Well, I was very wrong about this one. I thought the Jaguars, who ended up being favored after it was reported Trevor Lawrence would start, would end their 3-game losing streak by winning the turnover battle and throwing some cold water on this Baker Mayfield hot streak, which was largely fueled against the sisters of the poor in the NFC.

But as it turns out, Lawrence was the turnover machine in this game and probably should have been sidelined earlier than he was before yet another injury (shoulder) was added to his 2023 season. Lawrence turned it over 3 times and the Buccaneers turned them all into touchdown drives to build a 27-0 lead early in the third quarter.

The Bucs didn’t even run the ball effectively (36 carries for 70 yards), but it didn’t matter as Mayfield avoided turnovers again and Mike Evans had 2 more touchdowns. By the time Lawrence was finally taken out, the game was already decided. C.J. Beathard mopped up and Calvin Ridley caught a pair of touchdowns after it was 30-0.

Tampa is thriving as the playoffs inch closer and the Jaguars (8-7) are in danger of making it two years in a row where the AFC South leader completely falls apart. The Titans were 7-3 last year before losing out, which the Jaguars benefitted from, and Jacksonville was 8-3 after winning in Houston just a month ago.

Look at them now.

Seahawks at Titans: Just What Pete Carroll’s Heart Needed, Another Nail-Biter

The Titans are a tough out, especially at home, and you knew Derrick Henry would step up after he had 10 yards on 20 touches last week, a historically-bad game. I liked the Titans in this game because of Seattle’s short week and long trip after an emotional win, possible rust for Geno Smith coming back, and Ryan Tannehill starting actually felt like a possible advantage instead of a downgrade from rookie Will Levis, who has problems sustaining drives.

Well, Henry no doubt showed up with 99 scrimmage yards, a touchdown run, and an ugly touchdown pass that still worked. Tannehill didn’t do a lot and took 6 sacks, several of a very untimely fashion, but he didn’t have any turnovers.

It looked like the Titans were going to steal this one after a 15-play, 75-yard touchdown drive consumed almost 9 minutes and was the perfect answer to D.K. Metcalf’s impressive touchdown catch to start the quarter. The Titans led 17-13 and basically left Seattle with one last drive.

This has not been Geno Smith’s spot in his career, but he ended up leading his third fourth-quarter comeback win of 2023 after he came into the season with 5 comebacks in his whole career. He kept the game alive with a 3rd-and-14 conversion to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 18 yards, the rookie making a huge play once again. Even if he didn’t catch it, defensive holding on the Titans would have brought a fresh set of downs.

A 22-yard flag for defensive pass interference put the ball at the 5, and Smith found rarely used tight end Colby Parkinson for the touchdown with 57 seconds left. Tannehill had enough time with one timeout to set up a field goal, but starting the drive with a sack was a killer, then he ended up taking another one from the 50. I swear quarterbacks have given up on spiking the ball this year, because instead of doing that, the Titans ran another play and the receiver’s momentum was stopped in bounds, allowing the clock to run out on the Titans.

I still think this Seattle team, the current No. 7 seed with an 8-7 record, is a waste of a playoff spot this year. But when you look at the list of teams they are competing with (Vikings, Falcons, Packers, and Saints), maybe they are the best option to get there. And Detroit will want no part of them in a 7-2 matchup should that happen given the results of the last two meetings in Detroit.

Colts at Falcons: The Letdown

I guess the Colts were due for an offensive letdown, but you wouldn’t have guessed this game after they took the opening kickoff and drove 75 yards for a touchdown. But that would be the only trip to the end zone as the offensive line was dominated with Gardner Minshew taking 6 sacks, and Jonathan Taylor returned this week but only had 43 yards on 18 carries.

With Michael Pittman Jr. out, you see the limitations in this receiving corps that relied so heavily on him. While the Colts struggled, the Falcons with Tayler Heinicke at quarterback finally utilized their best players as Kyle Pitts had a 24-yard touchdown and Bijan Robinson had 122 yards from scrimmage.

Just as importantly, the Falcons avoided any turnovers this week, snapping a 19-game streak for the Colts for games with at least 1 takeaway. No takeaways, no run game, no Pittman catches, and just not enough points for Indy in a 29-10 loss that hurts their playoff chances as another one of the 8-7 teams in the AFC.

Commanders at Jets: Frankly, Both Coaches Should Go

There were reports swirling before the game that Jets coach Robert Saleh was safe for 2024. He probably should be given the Aaron Rodgers situation this year, but man did he almost blow a 20-point lead right after that report that certainly would justify moving on with someone else.

Of course, Ron Rivera seems like he’s got a foot out the door already on the Washington side. They couldn’t have started this game much worse than they did. A tipped pick, a blocked punt, a muffed kickoff, and a bad punt led to the Jets leading 17-0 not even 6 minutes into the game.

Are you kidding me? But maybe that’s also a reason why there was a major comeback attempt here, because it’s not like the Jets were earning the lead with long drives or impressive offense behind quarterback Trevor Siemian.

But for the second week in a row, it was a quarterback change for Washington that sparked a near epic comeback with Jacoby Brissett replacing Sam Howell. It was an awful game for Howell, who finished 6-of-22 for 56 yards and 2 interceptions. Brissett sparked the offense as he did against the Rams last week, and he was 10-of-13 for 100 yards and a touchdown.

Brissett led an 83-yard touchdown drive that finally erased the 20-point lead for the Commanders with 4:52 left, but the job was not finished. By throwing 3 straight incompletions after a 1st-and-20 situation, Siemian exhibited some “suck quickly” strategy that Tom Brady once pulled off against the 2013 Saints. Had Siemian completed some passes there and used more clock before ultimately turning the ball back to the Commanders, this one could have ended differently.

But the Jets had all their timeouts to get the ball back, and Washington conceded with three straight basic runs and a punt. The Jets had the ball back 26 seconds after giving it up. All it took was 2 first downs to get into range for Greg Zuerlein, who was good enough on a 54-yard field goal with 5 seconds left to take a 30-28 lead. The Commanders couldn’t even get their lateral going to end it.

I had the Commanders (+3) as my upset pick and for the Jets to not crack 20 points against the worst scoring defense in the league. That start just killed this one for Washington, and even after the effort to come back, they still blew it by being so conservative and playing right into the Jets’ hands.

Both teams cleaning house wouldn’t be a bad idea.

Packers at Panthers: Is It Hope for Bryce Young or Impending Pink Slip for Joe Barry?

Finally, a Week 16 game I can say I nailed right down to Bryce Young having his best game of the season, the Panthers (+4) covering, and Green Bay still getting the close win on the road.

We know the Panthers struggle in the fourth quarter, but they erased a 14-point deficit with relative ease to tie this game at 30. Even after the Packers regained the lead on a field goal and left Young with 19 seconds, he still found two open receivers for 44 more yards and came up one second shy of getting the spike off in time to set up the game-tying field goal for overtime. Just one more second would have been enough for a 49-yard field goal by Eddy Pineiro, but he probably would have missed it given he already missed two extra points in the game.

If you’re a Green Bay fan, you’re satisfied with the performance of Jordan Love and the offense in a balanced attack and game where they put up 33 on the road. But you have to be pulling your hair out over defensive coordinator Joe Barry, who basically lives on dropped passes and turnovers to not give up 30 or 40 points every week. Young had his first 300-yard passing game after throwing for 180 looked like a struggle the last month for him. He joins Tommy DeVito as a struggling rookie to have his brightest moment against this defense in the last month.

I can’t wait to see what this defense does against Nick Mullens next week. At least he is charitable with turnovers, but he might have a 500-yard game indoors.

But if you’re a Carolina fan, you have to at least be encouraged that Young took advantage of a favorable matchup and made some good throws and led a productive offense. Some glimmers of hope in such a bleak season from the Panthers.

Cardinals at Bears: Tank You Very Much

It was 21-0 Chicago halfway through the second quarter before the Cardinals finally woke up. The good news is a 21-0 lead for Justin Fields and Matt Eberflus is not the same as a 21-0 lead for a normal team.

Sure enough, the Cardinals got back in it after Fields threw a horrible interception in the red zone with a 24-10 lead with 10:22 left. It was on first down too, so he could have literally ran the ball three times, kicked a field goal, and the Bears would have had a 3-score lead with 8 minutes left. Just terrible lack of awareness but also par for the course for this quarterback and team.

Kyler Murray turned that into a touchdown drive, the 2-point conversion failed, but the Bears went 3-and-out. So, we had a 24-16 game with 4:21 left, but Murray needed to drive 91 yards. The drive stalled at the Arizona 27, but instead of punting on 4th-and-6 with 3:00 left, the Cardinals went for it. Murray threw deep, the receiver fell down, no flag necessary, and that was basically game over right there with the Bears taking over in field goal range. Even they couldn’t screw this one up and they added a field goal to take a 27-16 lead with 1:02 left. Forget about it at that point.

Was that a subtle way of tanking the game for the now 3-12 Cardinals? Keep in mind Chicago is a team with heavy draft capital thanks to the Carolina trade involving last year’s No. 1 pick. It just seemed like such an asinine call with four clock stoppages left for Arizona, and they were facing one of the worst fourth-quarter closing time teams in NFL history. Any team should be punting in that situation, because if you don’t get the 4th-and-6 (chances are you won’t), it’s game over with the opponent in field goal range.

Just thought that was an odd call with some possible ulterior motives in an otherwise forgettable game.

Patriots at Broncos: Goodnight, Sweet Prince Payton

We’ll see what happens the rest of the way, but there is a good chance Mike Tomlin’s Steelers and Sean Payton’s Broncos will watch the playoffs on TV with the rest of us after losing as big home favorites to Bill Belichick’s Patriots with Bailey Zappe at quarterback.

Go figure, an awful matchup on paper lived up to its low expectations for one half with Denver leading 7-3, and then a real game broke out and it ended up being one of the most entertaining island games (or halves) of the year.

The third quarter was just a comedy of errors by Denver with Russell Wilson taking 4 sacks, Marvin Mims muffing a kick return for a New England touchdown just 8 seconds after a Mike Gesicki touchdown catch from Zappe.

All of a sudden, the Broncos were down 23-7 going into the fourth quarter of a must-win home game they were a 7.5-point favorite for. To their credit, they pulled off the fabled “8+8” comeback to tie the game with 2:53 left. Throw in a quick 3-and-out by New England combined with a bad penalty leading to a re-kick that cost the team 19 yards, and it suddenly looked like we’d get a Denver win in regulation with the ball at their 39 and 1:42 left.

I’m not going to crucify starting a 2-minute drill with a pass to the running back as so many successes in NFL history have done just that. But a 3-yard loss to Samaje Perine set the tone for the rest of the drive, and it was another 3-and-out. The Patriots got it back with 58 seconds left at their 19 and decided to run it before Denver made the likely mistake of calling timeout.

Look, I get you can do great things in limited time, but this game was tied. New England looked content for overtime, and this might have even been the rare game where going on defense first in OT would have been the right call. Make them earn it on a long field.

But by Payton calling timeout, I think Belichick called his bluff and the Patriots snuck in a great, unexpected throw down the field on 3rd-and-3 that was caught for 27 yards by DeVante Parker. Should have let them play for OT, Sean.

After a couple of short completions and a spike, the Patriots were ready to try a 56-yard field goal for the win. Rookie kicker Chad Ryland is someone I have repeatedly said is a sign of how bad player evaluation has gotten in New England under Belichick the GM’s watch. This kicker has sucked all year and he even missed an extra point and a 47-yard field goal in this game. You might recall he missed a 35-yard field goal against the Giants that would have sent the game to overtime instead of a 10-7 loss.

Lower stakes on this one since the game would have gone to overtime with a miss, and he wasn’t expected to make it. But maybe that helped him, because he nailed it right down the middle from 56 yards out to win this one. Wilson tried a Hail Mary from his own 27, but no one was getting that ball to the end zone.

The Broncos (7-8) are pretty screwed for the playoffs at this point, but there’s a reason genuinely good teams almost never start 1-5.

The Patriots really don’t benefit at all from the win, but it is amusing to know that Belichick can still get one over Tomlin and Payton with Zappe as his guy. That also goes down as Zappe’s first game-winning drive, a rarity in New England these days.

Truly a Christmas miracle.

Next week: Week 17 presents another opportunity with a special Saturday night game for the Cowboys to show they can beat a good team, and at least this one is at home. Also a big chance for the Lions to flex some muscles and stay in the race for that No. 1 or No. 2 seed.

Speaking of top two seeds, Miami at Baltimore is a huge game for the AFC, and that’s in an unusual 1 p.m. spot. Ravens need to avenge that blown 21-point lead last year. Bucs can put the clamps on the Saints for the NFC South. The 49ers should score at least 49 points against Washington. Pittsburgh-Seattle has some wild card implications for both conferences, and no, I don’t envy Mike Tomin’s quarterback decision for that one. Packers at Vikings on Sunday night to end 2023, a year to which I say good riddance to.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 15

Just another strange week in the NFL in the 2023 season. It started with the end of the Brandon Staley era in Los Angeles after the Raiders scored 63 points. One of the best halves of the year was played between Nick Mullens and Jake Browning in Cincinnati. There were multiple eventful Hail Mary attempts in Cleveland. The game of the week was a 21-point blowout.

All that just to tell us the 49ers are the best team in the league, and we’ll see if the Ravens have anything to say about that next week. But that’s next week.

This week is still going with MNF to come, but we have only had 4 games with a comeback opportunity. That would tie the lowest mark in the 13 seasons I’ve been doing this weekly, and it would be the lowest in a week where all 32 teams played. We had four teams win a game after trailing by double digits, which is a high number, but just not much drama late in games.

I would be shocked if Monday night did not get this week up to 5 opportunities given it’s Pete Carroll’s Seahawks on a Monday night, the 2023 Eagles are going to be there, and maybe a Flu Game for Jalen Hurts (questionable with illness).

I’m not going to cover the Saturday tripleheader below, because I think it was pretty self-explanatory. The games got progressively more one-sided as the day went on with Detroit blowing the doors off the Broncos, making them look like the team that started 1-5 and gave up 70 points in Miami. See what happens when Detroit protects the ball and the Broncos aren’t feasting on turnovers?

The Steelers blew a 13-point lead (5th time under Mike Tomlin) and still went on to lose by 13-plus points for only the second time in franchise history. Tomlin’s decision to punt, down 11 points, with one of the best kickers in the league was another low point for him.

The sloppy first half of Vikings-Bengals actually paved the way for one of the best finishes of the season in overtime. Jake Browning now has as many 7-point comeback wins in the fourth quarter as Joe Burrow in his career (2). Nick Mullens threw arguably the funniest interception of the season, but it was also the 6th game this season where both quarterbacks passed for over 300 yards and multiple touchdown passes:

Tee Higgins had one of the best plays of the year, showing the awareness at the goal line and why he would be a No. 1 wideout on most teams. But that whole half was a good example of what can happen when quarterbacks, even backups like Mullens and Browning, give their great receiving talent chances to make plays.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Cowboys at Bills: Familiar Tune for Dallas, New Hit for Buffalo

I need to stop putting high expectations on these big matchups this year. If Mike McCarthy didn’t put his starters back in facing a 31-3 deficit, this might have ended with the Cowboys failing to score a touchdown and neither starting quarterback passing for 100 yards. Yeah, there was rain, but this game was pain.

There are certainly more important things than the MVP award, but I think Dak Prescott just threw it away this year after doing the only thing he couldn’t do: have a total dud performance. Prescott threw for 43 yards in the first half and never looked comfortable, running into a sack on an early third down. The Cowboys have some explaining to do in how the offense can look so unstoppable at home and pedestrian on the road. Only a low-pressure drive, down 31-3, got the offense into the end zone with the game out of reach.

Throw in some early 15-yard roughing penalties on the Cowboys, and this was quickly a 14-0 game when it could have only been 3-0 and maybe the offense could have figured things out. But the Cowboys took themselves out of this one early and never recovered, and that’s been a theme in their big losses under McCarthy. That’s why this team going on the road in the playoffs every round is a big problem.

As for Buffalo, we have gotten so used to the Bills putting the ball in Josh Allen’s hands in big games since 2020 to the point where they don’t even try to run the ball with their running backs. If there is any clear difference in the offense since Ken Dorsey was fired as the offensive coordinator, it would be the impact of running back James Cook.

He had the best game of his career Sunday, making this the least Josh Allen game ever as the quarterback only threw for 94 yards on 15 passes. He even finished with just 8 runs for 24 yards and another touchdown run. But this was the Cook show with 25 carries for 179 yards, a touchdown on the ground, and 42 receiving yards and a great touchdown grab.

Cook did anything he wanted to this defense in the rain, which was a good strategy for sure. But it was still surprising to see Allen throw just 15 passes, or for Dalton Kincaid to have multiple drops at tight end. This was the least the passing game had to do for Buffalo in a game in years.

I’m not sold this is going to be the strategy for Buffalo moving forward, but it did lead to 28 first downs and 31 points against a solid defense. Those early penalties did help extend drives that otherwise end with a field goal attempt and punt, but the Bills moved the ball well and only had 6 possessions with Allen before calling off the dogs in the fourth quarter.

It was just nice to see Buffalo try something different in a big game and make it work. It was disheartening to see Dallas falter in familiar fashion. I flirted in the summer with this being my Super Bowl matchup, but if I had to pick one of these teams to go the distance right now, I’m going with Buffalo, which is still only the No. 9 seed as things currently stand.

But Buffalo will be one of the most “team you don’t want to face in January” teams in years. The Cowboys could lose to Baker Mayfield in the wild card round at this point if this is how they are going to continue playing in big road games.

Ravens at Jaguars: Not a Top Tier Team in Jacksonville

Sunday night could have been a really good game, but Jacksonville’s shortcomings and the way the Ravens control games this year made for a dud of a finish. Once the Ravens scored a touchdown to start the fourth quarter and take a 17-7 lead, the life was sucked out of this one with Jacksonville’s 3-and-out. The Ravens added a field goal, Trevor Lawrence was strip-sacked, the Ravens added another field goal (23-7), and Jacksonville eventually turned it over on downs in the red zone with 3:19 left.

But what a crazy first half. The Jaguars repeatedly moved the ball into scoring territory, but they missed a pair of long field goals, Lawrence flat out fumbled the ball in the open field on a scramble, and he botched the end of the half by not spiking the ball and throwing a pass in bounds inside the 5-yard line to see the clock expire with the Jaguars out of timeouts. Major mistake.

But a game like this does continue to show the flaws in Jacksonville’s roster, especially with Chrisitan Kirk out injured. The Jaguars only scored 9 points against the Chiefs, 3 points against the 49ers, and now 7 points against the Ravens – three Super Bowl contenders that they got to host at home this year and lost to.

Lawrence’s accuracy is too inconsistent, Calvin Ridley (39 yards on 12 targets) hasn’t been the No. 1 stud we thought he could be, and the running game with Travis Etienne just hasn’t been there most of the year.

As for the Ravens, they are just a lot to deal with given Lamar Jackson’s unique skills. He only passed for 171 yards in this game, but he made some key extended plays, and he ran for 97 yards on the way to the team rushing for 251 yards.

The Jaguars are in real danger of losing the AFC South title now that the Colts and Texans are all 8-6. But it feels like this team is going to be limited in playoff success this year regardless of where it finishes in the regular season.

With Baltimore, we’ll see the ultimate test when they travel to San Francisco next Monday night.

Chiefs at Patriots: They Still Haven’t Cut Toney?

As far as Kansas City games go in 2023, this 27-17 win in New England was tame. But they may have been in trouble if they were playing a better team than the Patriots, who were 2-of-12 on third down.

The Chiefs lost another turnover battle (2-1) thanks to a couple of interceptions thrown by Patrick Mahomes on passes that went to his receivers first before they were taken away. The egregious one was yet another play by Kadarius Toney that looked just like his Week 1 drop-to-pick against the Lions. At least this one didn’t get returned for a touchdown, but it did set up the Patriots on a short field for their last touchdown drive to make the game 27-17. Toney just has to go. It is ridiculous to keep putting him on the field when his 4 targets resulted in 5 yards and that turnover.

Travis Kelce was held to 28 yards, but this was a big game for CEH, who had to carry the load with Isiah Pacheco out again. His 20-yard run was the only rushing play of note for the Chiefs, but CEH had a strong receiving game with 64 yards and a very nice touchdown grab.

We’ll see how the Chiefs fare at home against the Raiders next week after Vegas scored 63 points on the Chargers largely by feasting on turnovers. The Chiefs were dying to cough up the obligatory fumble in this game, so they better start protecting that ball better because you’re not going to play the likes of Bailey Zappe and Aidan O’Connell in the playoffs.

Texans at Titans: Luv Ya Blue (No Tie)

It sure did not look like the Texans showed up to play after allowing a big opening touchdown drive by rookie Will Levis, and then Case Keenum threw a pick-six on a play that looked like a new quarterback out of sync with his players. The Texans trailed 13-0 at that point while the Oilers Titans were thriving in their Houston throwback uniforms, which apparently ticked off some of the natives in Texas this week.

But Keenum settled down and the Texans basically beat the Titans at their own game. Devin Singletary rushed for 121 yards while Derrick Henry, the Houston Killer, was held to 9 yards on 16 carries. Levis was pummeled and sacked 7 times.

Keenum got away with one of the dumbest, most dangerous passes of the season that Dalton Schultz somehow turned into a catch, and the Texans forced the game with a touchdown to Noah Brown, who stepped up with Nico Collins out.

After 7 straight scoreless drives and the game getting late into overtime, it really looked like a tie was inevitable, something this 2023 season has avoided so far. When Singletary’s 34-yard touchdown run was wiped away for holding, it really felt like we were going to get a god damn tie.

But much love to returning kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn for making a 54-yard field goal to give the Texans a 19-16 win and avoid that tie. We now have a 3-way tie at 8-6 in the AFC South. That’s the only kind of tie I want to see in the NFL.

49ers at Cardinals: Is San Francisco Inevitable?

It was only Arizona, but San Francisco’s 45-29 win to complete the sweep and clinch the NFC West was the team’s 6th-straight win by at least 12 points, something that’s only been done 23 times now.

In the salary cap era, only the 1996 Packers, 1999 Rams (twice), 2005 Colts, 2007 Patriots, and 2009 Saints have had a streak this long before these 49ers. Those are historic teams with three of them winning the Super Bowl.

Brock Purdy threw 4 more touchdown passes and has taken a considerable lead over Dak Prescott in QBR while adding to his other league-leading efficiency stats. He is the MVP favorite now with roughly -150 odds after Dak Prescott’s dud in Buffalo. Deebo Samuel scored another pair of touchdowns and Christian McCaffrey put in 3 more. Both were left completely wide open on one of their touchdowns, which is crazy to think could happen.

Even in a game where Arizona piled up 234 rushing yards, it never really felt like the Cardinals had much of a chance. In fact, the Cardinals are the first home team in NFL history to score at least 29 points and rush for at least 200 yards and lose by more than 14 points.

The 49ers have really been the NFL’s best team since Purdy took over at quarterback, and injuries have been the main thing to hold them back in their losses in that time. We’ll see how they look next Monday night at home against the top-seeded Ravens. But if it’s anything like the streak the 49ers have been on, the Super Bowl odds are about to get even better for this juggernaut.

In a league lacking in consistency, the inevitably of the 49ers is impressive.

Bears at Browns: Hail Flacco

This felt like one of those fluky Chicago games from one of their playoff seasons where they get a tipped ball for a pick-6 after an earlier pick set them up for a 1-yard touchdown drive.

Basically, this game was a good example of why the Cleveland defense does not have a better ranking in points allowed, because the Chicago offense barely contributed more than 3 points to this score. Joe Flacco got a little loose with the ball in his third start for the team and was intercepted 3 times.

But against a tough run defense like Chicago that held the Browns to 17 carries for 30 yards, you need a quarterback to hang in there and pass on them. Flacco can still do that as he put the ball up 44 more times in this one for 374 yards.

Flacco passed for 212 yards in the fourth quarter alone as the Browns have a formidable offense with Amari Cooper and tight end David Njoku. But the Bears are also one of the great fourth-quarter collapse teams in the league, and you could feel that 17-7 lead wasn’t going to hold up for Matt Eberflus. Hell, the first play of the quarter was Justin Fields taking a sack on a 4th-and-1.

Flacco eventually led the team back with a 51-yard touchdown threaded in there to Cooper, who did the rest after the catch. The defense forced a quick 3-and-out, and Flacco found Njoku for gains of 31 and 34 yards to set up a go-ahead field goal with 32 seconds left.

That is barely enough time for Chicago to get into range, but kicking was probably going to be difficult on this day. Eventually, they settled for the Hail Mary finish after already getting a crack at it to end the first half with Fields’ pass intercepted in the end zone.

This one was quite the adventure with Darnell Mooney having a real shot at it on the ground, but the ball left his hands, and he kicked it to a defender for another interception in one of the wildest finishes we’ve seen this year.

This is the kind of ending we are used to seeing go against Cleveland, but not this year. At 9-5, the Browns have clinched a second winning season under Kevin Stefanski, and they are in position for the No. 5 seed. That might be Coach of the Year material for the 2020 winner of the award.

Buccaneers at Packers: Refreshing to See Some Great QB Play in Tampa…

There was a time when a Florida team winning at Lambeau Field in December would have been a huge headline, but it was only 42 degrees, and the Packers haven’t had the best week after losing to Tommy DeVito and the Giants on Monday night.

This was also the third year in a row that Baker Mayfield played in Lambeau in December, and with his third different team, he was not walking away a loser again. In fact, he had arguably the best game of his career with 381 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a perfect 158.3 passer rating. He did take 5 sacks and lose a fumble as the pass rush was on him early, but the passes Baker got off, he was slicing and dicing the Packers down the seams.

Every time the Packers pulled within a score in the second half, Baker had an answer. His 52-yard touchdown pass to ice it to David Moore almost ended in disaster with the receiver foolishly releasing the ball close to the goal line. But the touchdown stood and Green Bay trailed 34-20.

It was the sixth time this season the Buccaneers (7-7) scored at least 20 offensive points on the road. They didn’t do it even once in 2022.

Falcons at Panthers: We Might Need to Get Arthur Smith Up Out of There

I kind of love this stat: Carolina is 2-12 but has yet to run a single play with a fourth-quarter lead this season. Both wins have come on field goals on the final snap of the game. They did it to Houston in Week 8 and now again to the Falcons for the second year in the rain in a 9-7 barnburner.

I knew this game was trouble when the weather reports came out, so I largely avoided any bets on it. You just can’t trust the Falcons, but they probably should have won this one.

Atlanta, leading 7-3, was running a give-up play to Bijan Robinson on a 3rd-and-10, and he ended up fumbling, giving the Panthers the ball at the Atlanta 21 as the game was moving to the fourth quarter. The Panthers stalled but were right to kick the field goal to make it 7-6. You just can’t trust the Bryce Young-led offense to convert a 4th-and-4 from the 7, keeping it a 7-6 game would likely keep Atlanta in conservative mode instead of playing from behind, and you can just win on a field goal. Oh yeah, it’s also the Falcons, the NFC’s version of the Chargers.

The defense wasn’t holding up its end of the bargain with Atlanta driving into the red zone, but that’s when Desmond Ridder threw a pass that his season, if not his time in Atlanta, may be remembered best for:

https://twitter.com/tankathon/status/1736487658442916294/video/1

What the hell was that? Point shaving? Anything even remotely conservative should lead to a field goal and 10-6 lead with under half a quarter left, making the Panthers think touchdown or bust. Just an atrocious decision that could cost this team the playoffs.

Young still had to drive his offense from the 5 in the rain, but he only needed to set up a short field goal for a win. He got the job done with one of his only good drives all season, moving the ball 90 yards on 17 plays, mostly through his arm. The Falcons burned all their timeouts and still couldn’t stop Chuba Hubbard on a 3rd-and-3 run, allowing for the 23-yard field goal by Eddie Pineiro to be the final snap of regulation.

He made the kick and for the second time this season, the Panthers earned a win on the last play. It was the first time since October 21, 2018 that the Panthers won a game after trailing by more than 1 point in the fourth quarter.

Of course, it had to be at the expense of the Falcons.

Giants at Saints: [Insert Somehow Still Acceptable Derogatory Reference About Italians]

I think Tommy DeVito needs about 2 more wins before his agent can get Adrien Brody to play him in a movie. But it’s not going to happen like this. The Giants scored two field goals in New Orleans, including one from 56 yards away that saw the kicker get injured in the process. DeVito also had to leave the game temporarily for a concussion check, but he returned to end up in more pain as he took 7 sacks.

I said it was a miracle that the Packers did not sack him once on Monday night, because his sack rate is abysmal and should be over 20% again. Saquon Barkley also had his worst game in a while with 14 yards on 9 carries as the Saints just dominated up front. Meanwhile, Derek Carr was kept clean and finished 23-of-28 for 218 yards and 3 touchdowns, somehow playing his best game without the services of Chris Olave.

In all, a pretty bland 24-6 win. No spicy meatballs for the Paisan.

Commanders at Rams: Is There a Coaching Staff in Washington?

We know Jack Del Rio’s dusty ass was fired during the season, but is there even a coaching staff left in Washington? People really want Eric Bieniemy to be a head coach, and sure, it’s tough to not want a coordinator who sees his offense go into halftime scoreless.

But then I had to love how Cooper Kupp was left wide open on a 62-yard touchdown to start the second half. Gotta love when a defensive back is peeking 20+ yards into the backfield as if keeping an eye on Matthew Stafford from that distance while Kupp blows past you is going to do anything.

Then the Commanders, down 28-7, seemed to pull the plug a little early on Sam Howell with 9:05 left, but maybe it was because of the pick he threw on his last play. But Jacoby Brissett entered the game and this almost turned into some 2005 Mark Brunell to Santana Moss kind of batshit craziness. Terry McLaurin caught a 29-yard touchdown, then it looked like he had a score from 49 yards out with 4:47 left, but he was down at the 1.

Remember when Andy Reid was known for horrible clock management? Bieniemy must have made him proud as it took 3 minutes and 1 second over 9 snaps for the Commanders to finally score the touchdown to make it a one-possession game:

I can’t believe that sequence was real life. This could have very well been a game with a realistic 21-point comeback there if they got that score much quicker. Then Ron Rivera must not have watched the Titans on Monday night, because he botched not going for 2 here. The extra point was blocked, fittingly, and it was still 28-20 anyway with 1:46 left.

The Commanders did have all of their timeouts, but maybe they would have gotten the ball back if they didn’t take an eternity to score from the 1. This is another team that needs major housecleaning in the offseason.

Jets at Dolphins: Just End the Season

Seriously, we’ve seen enough of the 2023 Jets. They have been eliminated from the playoffs after losing 30-0 to a Miami team that didn’t have Tyreek Hill. The Jets had 80 net passing yards on 43 pass plays due to sacks. Maybe that will end this silly talk of Aaron Rodgers returning from a torn Achilles, because why would anyone even want to play behind this line? They still can’t run block either, finishing with 12 carries for 23 yards.

The Jets join the 2018 Redskins (lost 24-0 vs. Eagles) and 1999 Browns (lost 43-0 vs. Steelers) as the only teams since 1990 to not pass for more than 80 net yards and not rush for more than 25 yards in the same game.

Next week: Seven island games in one week? The NFL really wants to take over our Christmas with TNF, a Saturday doubleheader, a normal Sunday lineup, and a Monday tripleheader. Not many games are appealing either, but TNF is actually legit with seeing how Derek Carr will fare in a pseudo playoff game against the Rams. There’s also the crazy possibility of Mike Tomlin’s final home game if things go off the rails here the rest of the way. Maybe Dallas will fare better in Miami’s weather, but yikes, talk about two teams who don’t beat the good teams this year, especially on the road. The highlight of the week is clearly the finale on MNF with Ravens-49ers, a possible battle of No. 1 seeds, a possible Super Bowl preview for Christmas.

NFL Week 15 Predictions: Saturday Dogs Edition

Just enough time for a very quick NFL Week 15 preview as I am still dealing with sinus and segmented sleep issues. A tripleheader on a Saturday isn’t helping matters but I do like the underdogs in 2-of-3 games.

This Week’s Articles

NFL 2023 Award Races – Looking at the Purdy vs. Prescott MVP race and a very open Coach of the Year race, among other awards

NFL Week 15 Predictions

I liked the Raiders to cover but god damn, they got Brandon Staley out of there with a 63-21 win.

A lot of underdogs won last week and I am on a few this week, including the Steelers and Broncos on Saturday. I also am going with Tommy DeVito and the Giants in New Orleans (link above).

The big one is Bills and Cowboys, and I’ve compared those teams several times in recent years as they are two of the NFL’s only teams that have been elite on both sides of the ball since 2021. They are doing it again this year, but Buffalo needs the game more with a 7-6 record and the playoffs still in doubt. But I ended up going with the home team as I really did just factor that into the equation. Dallas hasn’t been as great on the road, and home teams are winning over 55.5% of games this year, so that appears to be back to a normal advantage from recent years where it dipped under 50%. The Bills are in playoff mode already and I think they pull that one out, though it will be interesting since both teams love to win by double digits and aren’t used to winning the tight ones.

Not overly confident in the Ravens to not blow a lead on SNF, but I just think they are a better team than the Jaguars and should have won that game last year on the road.