NFL Week 10 Predictions: Island Game Slop Edition

The NFL’s Week 10 schedule is not the worst I’ve ever seen, but the sequencing of the games with the choices for the four island games might be the worst this century. Would the week sound so bad if Thursday night started with Seattle hosting Washington, the Germany game was Lions-Chargers, Sunday night was 49ers-Jaguars, and Monday night was I guess the same Broncos-Bills matchup assuming Denver plays better?

The masses had no business seeing Panthers-Bears, Colts-Patriots, and Jets-Raiders, and that was true back in April. Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams in the same stadium? Who gives a shit? Enjoy the season-low ratings for Zach Wilson vs. Aidan O’Connell since you chose not to flex and spare us, NBC.

But Colts-Patriots is laughably bad for a 9:30 a.m. start. After the disappointment last week with Chiefs-Dolphins, I will not be getting up for this one. In fact, I might get up normal time (12:05), take a shit, take a shower, and maybe I’ll catch the tail end to see if the Colts kept their 20-points streak alive. To think a Colts-Patriots game used to be the biggest thing in the NFL. How the mighty have fallen.

This Week’s Articles

• NFL Midseason Review: Division Races and Super Bowl Odds – I take a look at the division races and updated Super Bowl 58 odds before making my picks for the 8 division winners and Super Bowl winner.
• Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 10 – I need some Ws after a couple of rough weeks, and while I still couldn’t help myself from making + parlays, I hit the unders often this week.
• Computer Picks (BMR)
• Computer Picks (OT)
• Prime Time Picks (BMR)
• Prime Time Picks (OT)
• Best Bets
• Upset Alert: Vikings over Saints
• Player Props (BMR)
• Player Props (OT)

NFL Week 10 Predictions

No one won on Bears-Panthers on TNF with a push. I really didn’t win thanks to 2 f’n yards that Chuba Hubbard couldn’t get.

I want to start by saying favorites were 12-2 SU last week (good spread record too, I believe), so maybe this is a bounce-back week for underdogs, but I didn’t see a lot of enticing ones on the schedule. Just ended up taking the Vikings over Saints, then I also changed my pick from Tampa to Tennessee. Might be letting the Will Levis game vs. Atlanta screw me over twice here as I just think he can hit some big plays against the Bucs, and Kyler Murray might be the next QB to make his season debut for his team and upset the path to doom Falcons.

Honestly, I have no real feel for Colts-Patriots. It might be the biggest gap the Colts have over the Patriots roster-wise since 2005 or even longer ago. But when my brain has gone to “island game = shit offense” and I see the way the Colts didn’t even get 200 yards in Carolina and won thanks to 2 pick-sixes last week, I’m just going to go with the Pats to end the 20-points streak and sneak out an ugly win.

I also think 49ers-Jaguars is a hard game to read since the Jaguars are not statistically strong but win, and the 49ers are super talented but have lost 3 in a row. It’s also an early body clock game across the country. My favorite pick in this game is the under 45.5.

I don’t believe in Cleveland, so I took Baltimore to win by a full touchdown. We’ll see what happens as division games are weird. Same reason I ultimately decided to take the Giants to cover 17.5 points in Dallas. I know it looks bleak, but the Cowboys almost lost straight up to Houston as a 17-point favorite last year. They already lost as a 13-point favorite to Arizona this year. I hate big spreads like this.

Packers are a perfect opponent for Pittsburgh at home. Shit offense (first half under looks great) and not a scary offense. I’m sure it’ll be a nail-biter and maybe even go to overtime.

Texans-Bengals could be interesting but I think C.J. Stroud comes back to Earth a bit from last week. But would be something if Tee Higgins (out) and Ja’Marr Chase (questionable) both missed the game. Huge opportunity for Houston to get a H2H tie-breaker and move ahead of the Bengals in the AFC.

Lions-Chargers is our saving grace of the late afternoon. Should be back to a normal Chargers game, which means Justin Herbert with the ball in a one-score game in the 4th quarter. I also think Seahawks-Commanders has potential to be a tight finish with decent offensive numbers.

I already have to write 2 articles on the prime-time games early in the week, so by Friday night, I’m ready to just get them over with. But I think the Jets use their superior defense to win that stinker, and the Bills should bounce back and win against Denver, which I still think is an underwhelming team.

At least I’ll probably be done early on Sunday night with this slate.