Been a slow-moving week for me, and there’s a game kicking off in less than six hours, so I’ll be brief.
The big Week 10 game is in the AFC North tonight between the Steelers and Bengals. Both are 6-2, and the Steelers already won the first meeting in an exciting finish. This game is for first place, and it’s really the first or second-toughest game left on each team’s schedule. The Steelers still have to play at Jacksonville (Week 14 MNF) a day after the Bengals take on the Chiefs at home.
But this being such an important showdown and one of the few tough games the Bengals face all year with their third-place schedule is also important in the context of Joe Burrow’s MVP case. He’s the current favorite at the sportsbooks, and I predicted in the summer that the schedule combined with a healthy year from him and his receivers would set him up well to win his first MVP.
It’s really this simple. If Burrow plays well on Sunday night and the Bengals get the win, he may lead the MVP odds the rest of the season and win the award. But if he falters in a big spot just as he did in the first matchup at Pittsburgh, then that should be a dagger through his MVP case, because there’s no point in calling someone the MVP if you come up short in every big game (see losses to Jacksonville and Pittsburgh). This isn’t about hanging six total touchdowns on the Titans (after throwing three picks) or throwing for 4 TDs (without even breaking 200 yards) on the lowly Dolphins. That’s not an MVP.
If Burrow can’t perform in this game at home, he only gets two more prime-time audiences the rest of the season: MNF at Washington next week and TNF vs. Baltimore on New Year’s Eve. Neither game should move the needle as much as this one for first place, but I guess people are gullible prisoners of the moment. But Burrow needs to deliver in this one.
Other QBs like Purdy, Jordan Love, and Josh Allen are going to have numerous tests in front of national audiences in December. That’s why I think the QB who plays best in those games has a great shot to win this award, barring they maintain great statistics through the other weeks as well. Purdy has a ton of WR injuries around him at the moment, and you never know when Christian Watson will meet the blue tent. You also can’t discount the easy schedule for Trevor Lawrence and the Jags, though I’m not sure his numbers are going to be on the level of MVP.
But we can talk later this season about having two great WRs and the difference in throwing TDs to them vs. padding the total with 1-yard sneak TDs. I really don’t think it’s going to come down to those things at all this year though. I think the 2026 NFL MVP will come down to seeding as you’ll probably need a top 2 seed this year (no wild cards). And how you perform in those prime-time games late in the season will matter, which is why Burrow can’t afford a dud on Sunday night.
NFL Week 10 Predictions
I thought I had a great TNF pick with the Giants winning 20-17 (led 21-17 late). But sure enough, a John Harbaugh team went full Harbaugh mode with the conservative calls on offense late, then the defense giving up the TD with ease, then the offense not able to get it back after a really rough night for Malik Nabers after some Greg Olsen controversy last Sunday. I should have figured the NFC East couldn’t be a runaway division, but Washington really saved its season with that comeback win.
DET-NE: You know I’m picking Drake Maye to lose to a good team. It’s not that I expect him to play poorly with turnovers like he did last week vs. GB. It’s that I think Detroit can score too much for him to match in crunch time, and that’s why I like Detroit by 3+.
MIN-GB: Kirk Cousins should help the offense but GB is just playing better ball right now and I still think KOC’s offense is flawed. The Packers correct mistakes from the first matchup they blew and hand the Vikings a third-straight loss.
HOU-CLE: Forget the records, Houston is the better team with the QB playing better. Only concern here is the Texans have blown as many leads as any team in the 4Q while the Browns live for the drama. Better get up big and close.
KC-ATL: It’s a yetzer hara trap for the Chiefs! Another games with both tackles out for Mahomes to deal with, working in Josh Downs in his first game, and Kenneth Walker is out. But I’m excited to see Emmett Johnson forced into a RB1 role. Falcons are unpredictable. They could win by 20 or lose by 20 any given week. I’ll hedge and take the Chiefs to win by 1-3; Falcons cover the spread.
IND-MIA: Well at least Jonathan Taylor is still there. Colts lost some of their best players but might still have a better roster than Miami. Wouldn’t surprise me if the Dolphins cover or even win, but I’m taking Indy at home.
CAR-NO: Just a gut feel that the Panthers finally win a clutch game this year and Young gets it done with a GWD late.
JAX-TEN: Jags are the team most likely to blow a team out this year. Titans are still trash, so I’m going to trust a rested Jags team.
BUF-NYJ: Division games are weird but Bills usually take care of the Jets regardless of how the QB plays for them. Geno also took 5 sacks vs. Chiefs last week, so I think the Buffalo defense, while posting some inflated stats against the Ravens and Vikings’ backups, is playing a little better legitimately, and they should win by 8+.
LAR-ARI: Is this a trap? Arizona already beat the Rams as a 2 TD underdog, and they don’t have Adams or Puka at WR this time. Granted, the wild card is rookie QB Carson Beck making his first start against a defense with Garrett and Donald. A pick parade from Beck could easily turn this into a blowout, but I’m going to trust this LaFleur brother against McVay to keep it close again. Maybe Beck can save the pick for the last drive in a one-score loss.
SEA-LV: Rookie QB week? Fernando Mendoza makes his first NFL start, and what a defense to do it against. I think Drew Lock plays well against a bad defense, and too many mistakes from Mendoza against a fast D leads to a Seattle cover.
SF-DAL: Just don’t trust the Cowboys to slow down the 49ers, who they usually always struggle with this decade anyway.
PIT-CIN: Historically, the road team has performed better in this rivalry, though the Steelers had that success in Cincy with years of Cowher/Tomlin/Roethlisberger. This is a McCarthy/Rodgers (Old) team now, so who knows? But I picked these teams to split before the season, and the Steelers already won the first one. Bengals are playing red hot on offense, and I think the Steelers’ flaws at WR and OL show up at enough key times for the Bengals to win by 4-8 points.
LAC-BAL: Yep, those damn Chargers cost me a 15-0 SU week last week. It would have been a cheap one with every favorite but the Patriots winning , but I still wanted it. Guess I’m doubling down too, because I have the Chargers winning this one with the Ravens starting Jacoby Brissett for the first time this season. Sure, he already has a 26-14 win over the Chargers with Arizona, but I just think Harbaugh schools his apprentice and Herbert pulls his head out of his ass for one night against a team that loses by 21+ the last three games. But what a massive disappointment these two teams have been.
