The 2026 NFL season got off to an underwhelming start on Wednesday and Thursday, and I’m already sweating my Super Bowl pick of Rams over Bengals. But there is something bittersweet about watching Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford struggle to score points in their openers after they were the MVP race (by default) last year.
Speaking of awards, I’m going to drop my final picks below after the Week 1 picks. I’m usually late like this, but it’s not like I planned on picking anyone from the first two games for any of the awards this year anyway.
The NFL Kickoff Blues (NE vs. SEA, SF vs. LAR Recap)
Either defenses are way ahead of the offenses right now, or this act of not playing anyone in the preseason any snaps might finally be biting teams like the Rams in the ass. Sure, the travel was significant for the Rams and they’ll always talk about that for the Australia game. Stafford having his least effective outing as a Ram and Myles Garrett producing zero pressures while looking winded would certainly qualify for weird outlier unlikely to ever repeat itself.
But there were other questionable coaching things like how they used their new corners in coverage, and Davante Adams got one snap near the end zone after dominating in that area last year. Do the Rams think he’s washed? Very curious moves all around. Aaron Donald also didn’t play, so the supposed “super team” was far from top shape. After losing six games by a combined 21 points last year, the Rams got their asses kicked by 20 points in Week 1.
Meanwhile, hats off to the 49ers. Mike Evans looks ready to perform the deluxe Jauan Jennings route, making key catches on third down and providing a good-sized target in the end zone for Brock Purdy. George Kittle didn’t look too slow after the Achilles. They oddly limited CMC’s touches early, though it helped him break some nice runs in a good second half. Deebo looks good and they clearly understand better how to use him than the Commanders did. I kind of forgot about Deebo going back to be honest. That helps for the Pearsall injury and then their new rookie (Stribling) also got injured. But Fred Warner was awesome at linebacker in his return, and I possibly undersold this veteran team with just 9 wins. But it is a long season, and they have had McVay’s number over the years.
Shanahan vs. McVay
Shanahan leads 12-8 (12-8 ATS)
Shanahan is 8-5 SU as an underdog (10-3 ATS)
McVay is 3-3 SU as an underdog
But would you trust McVay to beat SF as a 9-pt dog like Shanahan did last year with Mac Jones? Nope.
As for the first game, what have I been saying about Drake Maye? Terrible in crunch time, doesn’t handle good defenses well, and I wasn’t sure swapping Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte for A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs was going to have a huge impact on him because of how well the other two played with him last year.
Sure enough, Brown gets injured and will miss 4-6 weeks. Doubs was horrible with a fourth-quarter drop that I honestly think could be a worse drop for Maye than any drop by a receiver in Tom Brady’s 20-year career with the Patriots. It was that bad and it led to another bad interception, though he saved the worst one for last with the game on the line with a game-tying FG in his back pocket. Just an inexcusable decision and throw.
Meanwhile, Drew Lock led the only fourth-quarter lead change in the last five NFL games after the Seahawks lost Sam Darnold on the opening drive. Damn. At least it doesn’t sound like more than a 1-2 week injury for Darnold.
But the Patriots are at a real risk of starting 1-3 or worse this month, playing several of the teams who beat them last year. I had them penciled in for 10-7 and the No. 7 seed, but you should absolutely be worried about Maye in crunch time as he’s now 1-8 at 4QC. And their insistence on running on early downs is what I believe is their way of protecting him from taking bad sacks or throwing bad picks cause he gets impatient and tries to play hero ball at times.
That’s why I didn’t rank him as a top 10 QB going into the season. I can only go by what we’ve seen, and he’s just not there yet.
But in watching two prime-time bores, does anyone else feel like the best part of the NFL regular season these days is that witching hour around 3:20-4:20 PM ET on Sunday? When you get that block of 8-10 games and there are several one-score games going at once and some dramatic things happen. That anymore is the highlight of the week most of the time if you ask me. These prime-time games almost seem purposely inept offensively for gambling reasons, and that’s soured me out on even trying to build parlays or collect game script data like I should be doing.
We’ll see if the overall trend in Week 1 is poor offense around the NFL, or if it’s just a case of Maye can’t figure out Seattle, the Seahawks lost their QB on drive 1, and the Rams and 49ers were sent to Australia for no good reason.
NFL 2026 Week 1 Picks
Couldn’t get a spread win on either game so far but here’s hoping for some better games this Sunday and Monday night.
BUF-HOU: Josh Allen is 0-4 as a starter in Houston in his career. It’s still Joe Brady’s offense vs. DeMeco Ryans’ defense, and while a C.J. Stroud disaster-class scares me on the other side of the ball, I think Houston can pull it off here.
CHI-CAR: Which team regresses harder in close games? I still think the Bears are clearly the better team and I trust Caleb more than Bryce Young.
CLE-JAX: I think the Browns have potential to be bottom 3 on both sides of the ball. I see Liam Coen getting his offense going early this season in Year 2, and I like the Jags by 9+ points.
ATL-PIT: The Steelers have to take advantage of a team going into Week 1 with a third-string QB and without its top pass-rushing duo. I think Aaron Rodgers plays well, and Mike McCarthy knows what Cooper Rush can and can’t do. Steelers by a TD or more.
NYJ-TEN: Robert Saleh revenge game. I think he puts the heat on Geno, and Cam Ward has a nice day to get a home win.
NO-DET: Saints could be a surprise team but I still like the Lions at home with that offense putting up enough to win by 7+.
BAL-IND: I see the Colts putting up a fight (Steichen has had success vs. BAL) but the Ravens redeem themselves with Tyler Loop providing a game-winning field goal to win by 3 points.
TB-CIN: Might not be a 50+ point shootout and probably shouldn’t be if the Bengals want to start thinking they’re moving in the right direction defensively. But I think they handle business here and start 1-0.
WAS-PHI: I see Jayden Daniels giving the Eagles a scare but the home team wins by 1-5.
GB-MIN: I like Kyler Murray’s debut game to be spoiled by the Pack with a close win.
MIA-LV: Nothing like matching up the two rookie coaches with the worst WR rooms in the NFL in Week 1. Brock Bowers out too. But I’m going to put some faith in Kirk Cousins over the unpredictability of Malik Willis and that new-look Miami team. Hell, the unpredictability might be a reason to pick Miami but let’s just go with the home team with the OC-turned-HC who won the Super Bowl.
ARI-LAC: I think Mike LaFleur’s Cardinals give the Chargers a scare in their first game without Jesse Minter as DC, but Herbert plays really well and they win by 1-9.
DAL-NYG: One of my key upsets this week, I like John Harbaugh to win his debut with the Giants with the defense leading the way after some dumb Dallas mistakes.
DEN-KC: Could be your classic Kansas City finish where the opponent covers but the Chiefs win by 1-2 points. But it sounds like Josh Simmons won’t play at left tackle, and I said after Super Bowl 59 that I am done picking the Chiefs in games where they face an elite pass rush without a starting LT. I think it’s absolutely malpractice to go into a season opener with an undrafted rookie LT with no real experience at the position to go up against Nik Bonitto in Mahomes’ first game back from a torn ACL. Broncos usually play KC tough anyway under Payton, so I think they can win this one while the Chiefs can do better in the upcoming games on the schedule.
NFL 2026 Season Award Predictions
My final picks for the 2026 NFL awards:
MVP: Justin Herbert
OPOY: Ja’Marr Chase
DPOY: Will Anderson Jr.
OROY: Carnell Tate
DROY: Rueben Bain Jr.
Comeback Player: Patrick Mahomes
Protector of the Year: Penei Sewell
Coach: Jesse Minter, Ravens
For MVP, I’ll just say Joe Burrow is my most-bet player and I really do believe he can win it. But after the way my final 2026 predictions played out with the Bengals getting a wild card and the Chargers winning the AFC West, and the way I like Ja’Marr Chase for OPOY, I think sanity would win out in that scenario and Herbert would get it when it’s perceived that the defense improving a lot is a reason for the Bengals to return to the playoffs. And the offense takes a step forward while the defense goes back a little for the Chargers.
But I’m sure there will be plenty of arguments for that to come, and hopefully my picks are in the conversation somewhere.
It’s that time of year for my final NFL predictions for the 2026 season. I got cut off only about a third of the way through my detailed team previews because of a budget cut on the site that let me write as many words as I wanted the last three years. That was an unexpected bummer.
Then I got sick in August, which further delayed things. So, I didn’t get a full look at all the teams I wanted to, but I feel ready for this season to start, and maybe instead of devoting so many hours a week to that kind of writing, I can work on my drive stats database I’ve been yearning to build for years.
Someday I may predict the right Super Bowl outcome, but I cannot imagine anyone had Seahawks (+6000) over Patriots (+8000) for 2025 based on those preseason odds. However, I will not include the Packers for the third year in a row.
For a more recent mini-preview (read: 4,000 words) of the 2026 season, I did just cover 10 burning questions, including whether the Seahawks can repeat, if the Rams can be the superteam that gets the job done in February, and if the Chiefs’ dynasty is over.
My theme for 2026 is we get to see if 2025 was a changing of the guard or a façade of one. I think it’s going to be the latter, and the oddsmakers seem to agree as none of the record seven new division winners are favored to repeat in the division in 2026.
Change and the NFL are pretty synonymous. You have 10 new head coaches and 21 new offensive coordinators in the league this year. Those are abnormally high numbers, so things could look quite different on that fact alone, especially when you’re swapping out some of the longest-tenured coaches in the league like Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, and Sean McDermott.
That’s why I think, and have predicted below, that we could probably see a record-tying seven new division winners. With that said, on with the predictions. I think you know which players have come and gone this year, so I’m going to stick more to specific predictions on what I think can happen with these teams this year.
One thing I’ve learned about doing this since 2011 is that you can get jaded over thinking you have a team figured out in the summer. Then by the time Week 7 comes, they’re playing a big game on the schedule where six of the players you thought were important are all injured, benched, or traded. That’s the reality of the NFL. It’d be incredible if you can turn off injuries, but they’re inevitable and unpredictable.
Granted, you can probably pencil in Josh Simmons, Christian Watson, and Christian McCaffrey for some ailments this year. But injuries remain the great equalizer.
NFL 2026 Predictions: Choose your fighter.
NFC WEST
1. Los Angeles Rams (14-3)
The other big theme this year is the Rams’ pursuit of a super team to end the streak where teams with +500 preseason Super Bowl odds or better are 0-for-20 at winning the Super Bowl since 1996.
This team probably should have gone the distance last year, but they blew the No. 1 seed by blowing leads of 16 and 19 to the Eagles and Seahawks, and they underperformed as a big favorite in losses to the Panthers, Falcons, and 49ers with Mac Jones. The secondary was an issue, but they addressed that by adding two corners from the Chiefs. Okay, don’t love that idea, but making the pass rush better with Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald is the real key here. If Donald is 75% of what he was, that’s going to be something to watch.
The offense should still be great too, though I have some concerns if Davante Adams (old) gets injured again, or if Puka Nacua goes nuts off the field or gets disciplined by the league with some stuff out there that’s not great. But if everyone is healthy, they’re fine.
What can bring it all down? McVay’s weird conservatism in big spots, and of course special teams, which were terrible last year and cost them multiple games. You can be the best team in football and still watch your season burn because of an error on special teams. Watch the 1998 Vikings for proof of that.
They’re not going to challenge 20-0 or the scoring record. But I think they make amends for last year’s losses and get wins over the Eagles and Seahawks this year to make up the difference for the record they should have had in 2025.
2. Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
Repeating is hard because you usually have to do it a different way, and I don’t think the Seahawks have elevated their roster the way the 2004 Patriots did by adding Corey Dillon at running back. In fact, the Seahawks lost their Super Bowl MVP back and replaced him with a rookie while also losing their offensive coordinator.
But I do want to see if Sam Darnold has a post-1986 Phil Simms or post-2007 Eli Manning type of bump in efficiency and confidence now that he’s a champion who made it through a playoff run with no turnovers. I think JSN is less lethal this year, but they can open things up more by getting Rashid Shaheed better involved as a deep threat. They seemed to only understand how to use him on special teams after that trade was made midseason.
Defense should still be top tier but maybe not No. 1 in scoring again as I do trust Macdonald there, and the core is still young and growing. I think of all the teams that took a considerable leap last year, Seattle regresses the least, but I don’t see another fluke 2PC to beat the Rams in December, so I think the Rams take care of business in those late games and that provides the final push to win the NFC West for LA.
I originally had Seattle at 12-5 and added a win somewhere.
3. San Francisco 49ers (9-8)
Can you really bet on Kyle Shanahan in an even-numbered year when you look at 2018, 2020, and 2024? Even in 2022, they started 3-4 and were bailed out by the CMC trade and Brock Purdy surprisingly being good for a Mr. Irrelevant rookie. But it just seems like every other year this team falls off a cliff, and mass injury has been a culprit.
Flash forward to today, and you no longer have Jauan Jennings or Brandon Aiyuk at WR. Ricky Pearsall is injured and out. They brought in Mike Evans, coming off his worst season (injured already too). George Kittle is coming off a playoff Achilles injury, so I expect him to be worse this year. CMC already struggled to hit big plays last year but made it through that huge workload they gave him. I have fears he won’t survive this whole season. The defense is getting Fred Warner and Nick Bosa back, but lost Saleh as coordinator again. Still don’t love the secondary.
I think 9-8 is a fair compromise between not completely falling apart but still not returning to the playoffs. The schedule has enough easy games to get to a winning record, and I’ve always been pro-Purdy, but this goofy offseason with the injuries and the owner seeking $160 bareback sex in an Ohio trailer park, combined with Shanahan’s mysterious car accident they tried to cover up just reeks of a cursed team that shouldn’t experience any postseason glory.
4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13)
A money-laundering operation to boost stats for Trey McBride and Michael Wilson. That’s how you could describe the 2025 Cardinals once Jacoby Brissett took over, and maybe that’s how they play in 2026 too. I will note Matt LaFleur’s team moved the ball really well in the preseason and they added Jeremiah Love to the backfield, so if he somehow pulled off a good record in a brutal division, he should probably be Coach of the Year.
But I just don’t see Brissett and that defense leading to many wins for this team against this schedule.
AFC WEST
1. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
Yeah, while the Chiefs and Broncos fans are in a pissing match going into Week 1, I think the Chargers sneak out of this one with their first division title since 2009. It’s the same 11-6 record as the last two years, but I’m accounting for two things:
1. Some defensive regression after losing Jesse Minter to the Ravens.
2. In 2024, Ladd McConkey was Justin Herbert’s only good receiver. In 2025, the receivers played better, but the offensive tackles were injured. What if 2026 is the year the receivers are deeper and the OTs are healthy? With Mike McDaniel taking over as OC, you could see more big plays and unleashing Herbert’s arm in ways Greg Roman wouldn’t, so his best season (MVP?) is absolutely on the table here.
Of course, it’s the NFL, so even if those offensive players stay healthy, the defense could be a mash unit that falls to the bottom third of the league. But I trust Jim Harbaugh, and I think OC is the job McDaniel was made for. Not a head coach. I think it works out for them and they sneak past the Chiefs and Broncos to win the AFC West.
I know everyone is pointing to the brutal schedule in Weeks 3-10 but I think the soft beginning and end can be capitalized on, and they’ll win some of those tough games in the middle too. Does it finally lead to a playoff win? Well, find out at the bottom.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (10-7)
I didn’t get a chance to write the article “Why did the Chiefs miss the playoffs?” that was going to have a lot of detailed stats and comparisons between 2018-25. However, I think pointing out these five plays is a pretty telling summary:
Travis Kelce wipes out Xavier Worthy on the first pass play of the season in Brazil and tears his labrum.
Kelce turns a go-ahead touchdown pass in the fourth quarter into a red zone interception vs. Eagles.
Trevor Lawrence falls on the ground after the snap and still gets up and runs for a game-winning touchdown.
Kelce turns a 20-yard catch in the fourth quarter against Houston into a game-sealing interception.
Mahomes scrambles out of the pocket with two third-string tackles on the field and tears his ACL while trying to throw a pass away.
Anything that could go wrong did go wrong for the Chiefs last year. Even opposing kickers made 31-of-32 field goals (96.9%) while Harrison Butker missed nine field goals or extra points.
The Chiefs have been declining on third down for the last four years, but 2025 was rock bottom with the offense slipping to No. 22 and the defense to No. 29, creating the first negative conversion differential in the Mahomes era.
I recently wrote about the Chiefs’ struggles to find Phase III weapons for Mahomes when they’re still relying on his Phase I tight end, who has one foot in retirement. Rashee Rice is not trustworthy at all, we don’t know if Xavier Worthy is actually good at this league yet, and you can’t even rely on left tackle Josh Simmons to be there so far in his career.
It’s not a pretty picture in Kansas City as you see the effects of poor cap management and drafting catching up with this roster. With that said, they’re still a prime candidate for positive regression after going 1-10 in close games last year with four blown leads against a tough schedule. The Chiefs were rarely down by double digits in 2025. They just were one of the least clutch teams you’ll ever see, a total departure from 2024 when they were 12-0 in such games.
That’s why I think even if opening night against Denver is bad, they can beat up on the weak teams they rarely got to see (and still smoked with Mahomes) last year, and that should be enough to get to 10-7.
But I think when they play the Seahawks and Rams, you are going to see why this team’s absolute best-case scenario is getting smacked in the Super Bowl by one of those teams. That’s why they need to go back to the drawing board for 2027 as they’re not ready to get back to the top of the league.
3. Denver Broncos (9-8)
Including the playoffs, Denver was 8-2 at game-winning drive opportunities, which ties the single-season record for most GWDs (8). But that makes them ripe for regression this year, and the way they returned basically the same roster plus Jaylen Waddle (No. 2 on a meaningless stat team with constant nagging injuries) just makes me think we will see similar results, except those 13-11 and 10-7 wins over the Jets and Raiders suddenly become losses against better competition as the West divisions play each other.
They’re too good to totally fall apart, but what an early schedule with Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, Chargers, and Seahawks. Phew.
I’m still not sure what to make of Bo Nix. He seems to be elite at avoiding sacks. Sean Payton can put the ball in his hands a ton and win games, but they’re still mostly low-scoring games where he comes back at the end with a great drive or two. His efficiency is not up to par yet.
Also, this YPA stat for Nix is one of the weirdest splits I’ve ever seen:
Bo Nix:
• 9-0 with YPA above 7.5 • 1-9 with YPA between 6.51-7.49 • 15-2 with YPA of 6.5 or lower
But I think it’s your classic case of a team taking a step back after a run of close wins to get a No. 1 seed no one saw coming. I also am not a big fan of that Jason Licht-type strategy of bringing the whole band back together plus one addition of a wideout I think is not a championship-caliber player in Waddle.
4. Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)
I predict rookie Fernando Mendoza takes over for Kirk Cousins before Halloween. Maybe even before Columbus Day or whatever the fvck they call it these days. I just don’t see much going for an offense with a quarterback who can’t move and a bottom two wide receiver corps. There’s only so many plays you can design for Ashton Jeanty (already injured) and tight end Brock Bowers.
But I’ll be curious to see what Mendoza can do in a Kubiak offense. They’re just not ready to win games this year, and I think they end up taking Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) in the 2027 draft.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers (11-6)
I guess I can’t quit picking the Packers as the Five-Year Rule creeps into Year 4 for Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur. For a brief moment, they looked like the best team in the NFL last year, then they lost two key difference makers (Tucker Kraft and Micah Parsons) to ACL tears and never won another game.
My thought is what if Kraft and Parsons are back in time for the most important games? What if losing WR depth like Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks actually helps Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed, and Christian Watson play better in better defined roles for Love? Josh Jacobs is a piece of shit, allegedly, but I don’t think that makes or break their season.
I still like what the Packers are selling here in what should be a hotly contested race.
2. Detroit Lions (10-7)
An easier schedule and a healthy return of Sam LaPorta should help the Lions get back to the playoffs. But while I think losing David Montgomery makes it more likely Jahmyr Gibbs can win OPOY, I think it hurts their depth and keeping him fresh. I’m also curious to see how moving Penei Sewell to the left pans out.
Defense, it’s still on Aidan Hutchinson to deliver a great season. Don’t expect greatness from that unit but good enough to win 10 games. Just think Green Bay has more going for it to get the head-to-head win at Lambeau in Week 18 to win the division. Possible SNF Game 272 right there.
3. Chicago Bears (10-7)
Another regression candidate after the Bears won a record 7 games after trailing after the 2-minute warning in 2025. But my thought process is what if Caleb Williams improves in his second year of Ben Johnson’s system and the second year for Colston Loveland and Luther Burden in this league? What if losing D.J. Moore makes Williams realize Burden is the real deal and can be the Amon-Ra St. Brown in this offense? His numbers throwing to him are way better than two years of throwing to Rome Odunze.
Sure, the close wins and leading the league in turnover differential make the Bears a prime candidate for regression and a bad record. But keep in mind the Bears were only 7-6 at GWD opportunities including the playoffs. That’s a great record in the context of league average, but it’s not screaming they have to regress to 1-10 or the ridiculousness the 2025 Chiefs went through after 2024. They still lost a lot of close ones, including the 49ers late in the year and the Rams’ playoff game even after that miracle Hail Mary.
Safety Dillon Thieneman was one of my favorite picks in the first round of the draft. I trust Johnson and Williams enough to figure this out to get to 10 wins. We’ll see where that lands for the playoffs though.
4. Minnesota Vikings (9-8)
I do see the NFC North producing four teams with a winning record for the second year in a row, which would join the 1935 West, 2023 AFC North, and 2025 NFC North as the only four divisions in history to do that.
Could we see the Vikings win the division? Sure, if Kevin O’Connell can go 13-4 and 14-3 in his first years with Kirk Cousins (2022) and Sam Darnold (2024), then going 12-5 or better with Kyler Murray is possible. Especially when you’re giving Murray the best receiving corps and defense of his career.
But Murray has bugged me for years in that I think he’s totally content with who he is and doesn’t strive for greatness. That’s why there was such little progress in seven years in Arizona. So, in a tough division, I think 9-8 is fair enough but do see the potential for more.
I also think that makes Murray a great value candidate for Comeback Player of the Year at +650 odds as some in the media seem determined to downplay Mahomes (+150), the favorite. If Murray has a glow-up year, he likely wins it.
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
My first run through had the Ravens finishing 15-2, then I realized that’s too many wins for a rookie coach. But I think Lamar Jackson stays healthy, they blow fewer leads (Chargers only blew two under Jesse Minter in 2024-25), and Derrick Henry still has another fantastic season in him minus the fourth-quarter fumbles. The kicker hopefully doesn’t blow it this time too.
But I am curious to see if new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle asks Jackson to throw the ball more often this year. Get Zay Flowers more targets. More Mark Andrews with Likely gone. More short, quick throws.
I like the addition of Trey Hendrickson as a big-time edge rusher they’ve been lacking the last few years. I think the new interior offensive line will be fine. Don’t love the wideout depth but maybe one of those rookies (Ja’Kobi Lane?) will be a big positive.
Just very curious to see what this team looks like without Harbaugh after all those years.
2. Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)
They returned basically the entire offense minus Noah Fant (no biggie), so it should be business as usual there. Joe Burrow just has to stay healthy (redundant). The focus should be on the defense, which added four new starters. Dexter Lawrence is exactly the kind of player I’d say is overvalued and won’t have an impact worth the No. 10 pick, but we’ll see what he does.
The Bengals could be the 2025 Patriots this year. That team was favored to win 11 games when the schedule came out, and the 2026 Bengals were favored to win 15. It doesn’t look like that easy of a schedule, but you never know when those games against the Steelers turn into playing rookie Drew Allar with Germie Bernard as his No. 1 receiver instead of Aaron Rodgers and a full arsenal.
Zac Taylor should be coaching for his job here. He can’t miss the playoffs for a fourth year in a row. I still think Baltimore is better and will win the division, but I like the schedule and defensive additions enough to trust the Bengals one more time for 11-6.
The only question is would a wild card with the defense clearly being the improved unit be enough for voters to give Joe Burrow his DEI MVP even if his numbers are a step below 2024? As long as Dan Orlovsky is one of those voters, I think we know the answer to that. That’s why Burrow is my most-bet player for MVP.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
They finally got rid of Mike Tomlin after nine seasons without a playoff win. However, my ambition to make this a year where the Steelers improve to win 11-12 games (and maybe a playoff game) or implode with their worst record since 2003 didn’t come true. I just couldn’t do it. I like the roster too much but still not enough to go big in a loaded division, so 10-7 and fighting for the last wild card it is.
I think Aaron Rodgers plays better than he did last year now that he’s in a familiar offense with more than one good wideout. Let’s not forget McCarthy won 12 games in three years in a row with Dak in Dallas. He’s not a bad coach at all. Just not sure he’s got the goods to squeeze more out of this team than the typical 9-10 wins, no playoff win that Tomlin mastered the last decade.
But I think they’ll play hard for Rodgers in his final season and at least be entertaining to watch.
4. Cleveland Browns (3-14)
Woof, I think you’re going to see why you don’t hire a 60-year-old rookie coach in the NFL. It’s not all Todd Monken’s fault as he inherits an abysmal quarterback situation you can’t win from, and they traded Myles Garrett and lost Jim Schwartz. Real potential for a team that ranks 30th or worse on both sides of the ball here.
The only bright spots I see: Harold Fannin Jr. should catch 90+ balls and Jared Verse will have the quietest 8-to-10 sack season you’ll ever see.
Maybe they can get Arch Manning and a new coach in 2027.
NFC EAST
1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-7)
It might sound crazy but I think Jalen Hurts plays better without A.J. Brown this year. It happened in Detroit in 2016 after Calvin Johnson retired. Matthew Stafford had a better year, because you no longer have to worry about feeding someone his targets. Just throw to the open man, and in Hurts’ case, his success seems tied to who his offensive coordinator is, and they should be better in that area this year, which also bodes well for Saquon Barkley, who had a down year too.
But I think Makai Lemon and Wicks can help ease the loss of Brown, and it’s a career-year opportunity for DeVonta Smith as the new No. 1. They still have a really good line and defense too. Winnable division. In fact, they were the only team to repeat as division champion in 2025 (first time for the NFC East since 2004), and they’re the only one to be favored to repeat in 2026.
I could see a step back and no longer in real Super Bowl contention, but I think they still have enough to win the NFC East.
2. Dallas Cowboys (9-8)
A lot of new pieces on defense, including rookie safety Caleb Downs, could mean a quick turnaround after 2025’s expectedly poor job after trading Micah Parsons right before the season. If they click, then the offense should still be good (injuries worry me as the receiving corps isn’t great if you take away Pickens or Lamb), so you could see a return to the playoffs if they can sweep the Eagles.
But I think I’ve just grown bored with the Dak era, which is a repackaging of the Romo era at this point. So I don’t set very high expectations at all for Dallas anymore.
3. Washington Commanders (8-9)
I want to believe in Jayden Daniels as an MVP-caliber quarterback but 2025 gives you pause. Granted, he lost a lot of weapons to injuries, he was injured multiple times, and the defense still stunk. But they’ve turned over much of the defense, and Stefon Diggs should be a high-catch rate target for him to go with Terry McLaurin.
Sneaky potential to get back on the winning side of things if Daniels can play like he did as a rookie, and if Dan Quinn coaches like he thinks he’s getting fired if they’re not good. But I’m skeptical they’re going to have a winning season.
4. New York Giants (7-10)
You’ll see me repeat this two more times about the Saints and Titans, but one of the easiest picks for a new playoff team is matching up a second-year quarterback with a better coach after that quarterback didn’t have a great rookie year.
The Giants apply, and John Harbaugh was a good hire in a new situation where he can help change the culture. Plenty of pieces on defense for him, though I wish they drafted Caleb Downs or Sonny Styles instead of Arvell Reese, who didn’t force a single takeaway in college. Very skeptical of that top 10 pick.
But my biggest problem is the fit here. What bothered Harbaugh the last few years in Baltimore? Blowing leads and his quarterback out with injuries. What hurt the Giants in 2025? Blowing leads and his quarterback (Jaxson Dart) has a fetish for visiting the blue medical tent on an almost weekly basis.
The Giants get their injured weapons back, but can we trust Cam Skattebo to stay healthy? Malik Nabers to show no ill effects from a torn ACL? Dart to protect himself? He moved the ball well at times last year, but he didn’t really seize the moment in the close games they played, and the Giants were awful at closing games. Not exactly Harbaugh’s specialty in the 2020s.
It wouldn’t surprise me if it worked out, but I just can’t get behind them yet until I see Dart showing consistency and avoiding the injury report.
AFC EAST
1. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
I’m not a fan of promoting a coach who was part of the problem for why you didn’t get to the Super Bowl the last few years. But Joe Brady gets the job, meaning the offense should be consistent, which isn’t a bad thing given the results. Maybe adding D.J. Moore, who worked with Brady in Carolina, will help get them back to throwing outside the numbers and down the field more like when they had Stefon Diggs. Still want to see Dalton Kincaid stay healthy and play more snaps too.
But the biggest changes in replacing Sean McDermott come on defense with Jim Leonhard taking over as first-time coordinator. He was in Denver the last few years, though he had his most success as a player in Rex Ryan’s blitz-heavy systems, so I think he could bring a more volatile mix to the Bills.
Adding Bradley Chubb wasn’t one of those big moves like trying to get Myles Garrett, Maxx Crosby, or even Trey Hendrickson, but it could be better than Joey Bosa last year. Still, in another year where the Chiefs may not be in their way in January, we need to make sure the Bills can still get past teams like the Ravens, Bengals, and Broncos in January before we pencil them in for that elusive Super Bowl.
For that matter, they have to make sure they take the division back from the Patriots first, who only needed two seasons to get to the Super Bowl with Drake Maye. If the Bills fall flat again offensively in Houston in Week 1 like the last two seasons, it’ll be hard to take them seriously as a team that’s going to be demonstrably different in 2026.
The fear when you simply make an in-house promotion. At least they went outside for defensive vision.
2. New England Patriots (10-7)
Schedule merchants or serious contenders? We’ll find out in 2026 as the Patriots have to play the Seahawks, Steelers, Jaguars, Bills, and that’s just the first four weeks that include 3-of-4 teams they lost to last year. They also have to play the Bears, Packers, Lions, Chargers, Bills again, Chiefs, and Denver (hopefully with Bo Nix this time). Won’t be talking about an easy schedule this time.
Does replacing Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte with A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs help? Yeah, I think it does, which is why Drake Maye could actually have a better season than he did in 2025 against a tougher schedule, but he’ll get denied MVP love because the record won’t be as good. Funny how that works.
Also, I’d throw some cold water on thinking the receivers are a huge upgrade as he had a very efficient connection with Diggs, who caught 83.3% of his targets last year, a career year for someone who is over 70% for his career. A.J. Brown is more like a 64% receiver with no seasons above 70%. He wants more targets down the field, and he’s had success before under coach Vrabel in Tennessee, though that wasn’t a Josh McDaniels offense.
If Brown is properly motivated after what happened in Philly in 2025, I could see it being a really good fit. It’s not 2004 Terrell Owens or 2007 Randy Moss, but it could be nice. I just think people are overlooking how well Diggs played with Maye, and Boutte made some deep catches that Doubs may not necessarily get.
But it looks like a more talented offense this year, and you figure more touches for Kyle Williams and TreVeyon Henderson. The offensive line has to be better of course, and Maye has to get the ball out faster against better defenses. I’m still not sold he can get it done at a high level against top defenses, or that his game isn’t linked to well-timed deep shots schemed up by McDaniels.
But we’ll see where things go after that Super Bowl loss. If they start off poorly, that locker room might be looking funny at Vrabel’s message after his affair with Dianna Russini was exposed this offseason.
No Coach of the Year award for him this year.
3. New York Jets (5-12)
You hire Geno Smith to help you to a No. 1 pick in the draft like he did for the Raiders last year, then he goes out there and wins a few games with better weapons and positive regression on defense that actually produces some interceptions after 0 in 17 games last year.
I think the Jets are going to stink, but I also think they’ll win enough games against that schedule to take themselves out of the No. 1 pick. Go figure.
4. Miami Dolphins (3-14)
How many times am I going to do this with Miami? I pick them to win a few games, then they turn in the most meaningless 7-win season you’ll ever see. Still haven’t won a playoff game since the 2000 season and that’s not changing this year.
I’m intrigued by Malik Willis based on how he looked in Green Bay, but it’s malpractice to put him in an offense with Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert, and some third-round rookies like Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas as his wide receivers. Worst group in the league. Either them or Las Vegas.
I don’t think the defense is anything special either, so it’ll be hard to get a fair read on Willis this season. But at least it’s not another year of Tua Tagovailoa.
NFC SOUTH
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
I actually think Baker Mayfield getting paid this week takes some of the chip off his shoulder this season, because I thought he’d ball out after betting on himself and getting that $60M+ AAV extension after the season. That’s not to say he’s going to slack off now, but I think you had a bigger edge without paying him before Week 1.
Still, I think a healthy Mayfield with Emeka Egbuka replacing Mike Evans as the full-time WR1 and a healthier Godwin/McMillan should lead to a fine season for the offense. I think Rueben Bain Jr. proves he should have been a top 10 pick and wins Defensive Rookie of the Year with 9+ sacks to help the defense.
I’ll still trust the Bucs to win the NFC South again. I wanted to pick someone else but just couldn’t do it. Bowles is coaching for his job and they get it done.
2. New Orleans Saints (6-11)
Another team I wanted to pump up as a surprise playoff team but just couldn’t justify it in the end. Tyler Shough did good things last year, though he did it against all teams without a winning record. What happens this year when he plays good teams? They drafted Jordyn Tyson, but living up to the worst fears pre-draft, he’s already injured.
Don’t love the rest of the skill players after Olave, don’t love the defense either. I’ll understand it if this works out, but this working out is likely Shough continuing to win some close games and the Saints squeezing out a 9-8 division title in the league’s weakest division.
3. Carolina Panthers (5-12)
They were in a home playoff game and leading the Rams late last year, but I think it’s smoke and mirrors. Close-game regression finally comes for Bryce Young, who still hasn’t had a true breakout year. More than that, you’re looking at a team that’s banged up in the trenches with multiple injuries to the offensive line before Week 1, they lost Rico Dowdle, and they lost Nic Scourton on a defense that still wasn’t anything special.
Easiest pick this year for a team to regress and miss the playoffs after making it last year. And I don’t know what you do with Bryce Young’s contract. I guess draft his replacement and bring him back for a fifth season after it hopefully lights a fire under him a la short king Drew Brees when the Chargers drafted Philip Rivers in 2004.
4. Atlanta Falcons (4-13)
I like Kevin Stefanski, but Tua going to the Falcons probably turns Atlanta into the NFC’s Mami. That mean starting 1-5 before stumbling to the most meaningless 6-7 win season you’ll ever see. Sure, Tua might get some gaudy completion percentage stats in an offense with these great weapons, but he’s never beating the good teams and doing anything relevant in the playoffs.
Michael Penix Jr. needs to play this year to see what they have there. We haven’t seen enough yet. Then on defense, you lose James Pearce Jr. to suspension and Jalon Walker for a while to injury. They were supposed to lead your pass rush. Not ideal.
But at least Bijan Robinson and Drake London will put up some numbers for Stefanski.
AFC SOUTH
1. Houston Texans (10-7)
The defense should still be great for DeMeco Ryans. This is really on C.J. Stroud to step up and earn that big extension. He played his best in his rookie year, he’s had awful luck with the health of his receivers, but he still has Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. Drake Maye was able to get some valuable catches out of Kayshon Boutte last year. They added David Montgomery at running back and a few new offensive linemen starters.
What happened to the Stroud who was elevating his teammates in 2023? We need to see that return, and with the same offensive coordinator (Nick Caley) in town, I’m not sure it’s that different.
But I’m still banking on that defense to lead the way to 10 wins and the division title.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
Another team that went from 4-13 to 13-4 last year, I think the Jaguars take a step back in a division that should be stronger. They piled up five wins late in the year between sweeping the Titans, Colts (Daniel Jones injured) and annihilating the Jets. I still can’t get over the mistakes the Chiefs made in that loss on MNF that gave some early legitimacy to the Jaguars’ season.
But I see a team with unsettled skill positions, lost Etienne at RB, not sure what Travis Hunter is yet on either side of the ball, and I still don’t think Trevor Lawrence is ever going to ascend to elite status even though I guess it’s possible he picks it up in Year 2 of Liam Coen’s system.
But much like how they went from winning a playoff game to missing the playoffs in Year 2 of Doug Pederson in 2023, I think this team finishes 9-8 and second place at best in the AFC South.
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-9)
Was the first half of 2025 just a mirage when Daniel Jones was leading one of the most efficient offenses in NFL history? Was that their only shot after they swapped Michael Pittman Jr. for another veteran possession receiver in Keenan Allen while Jones is expectedly slower after rupturing his Achilles? Not to mention another year of tread on the tire for Jonathan Taylor.
But while I’m skeptical of the Colts, I will say I think tight end Tyler Warren has All-Pro potential this year. If you’re not sold on Alec Pierce as WR1 and think Jones will want to dump the ball off quicker this season post-injury, then using Warren in really inventive ways could be a way forward in this offense.
Defensively, I’m just not seeing the names that stand out like you get with the other AFC South teams above them. Shane Steichen should have asked Dolly Parton to record “9 to 8” for him as that seems to be the only win totals he knows, and I’m not going to pivot from that in 2026.
4. Tennessee Titans (6-11)
I like the idea of Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll (OC) getting another chance elsewhere in the NFL. I like giving Cam Ward a WR1 in Carnell Tate in the draft. I don’t necessarily like the money spent on random defenders, but hopefully Saleh will show his expertise there in getting better play.
Sure, a second-year quarterback with better coaching in a winnable division should be an easy pick for a breakout team. But I’m just not feeling this roster yet, and I think Ward might be the first Gen Z quarterback who could go down as a bust, but he’ll get on a podcast weekly and take accountability for it. “Yeah, I fucking sucked, no cap.” Just listen to some of his pressers from the last year if you don’t know what I’m talking about.
That’s cool when you’re a rookie, but let’s make sure we see some progress in Year 2 when you’re not playing a ridiculous schedule like he did last year. I’ll understand this one too if it hits as a winner, but I don’t trust it yet.
Most starts against 12-win teams in a QB's first 17 career starts
1. Cam Ward – 9 2. Cooper Rush – 7 3. Tony Banks/Kellen Clemens/Kevin Kolb/Akili Smith – 6
Everyone wins 3-to-14 games in my vision of the 2026 season. The playoffs came down to tiebreakers in both conferences.
AFC
1. Buffalo (13-4)
2. Baltimore (13-4)
3. LA Chargers (11-6)
4. Houston (10-7)
5. Cincinnati (11-6)
6. Kansas City (10-7)
7. New England (10-7)
On the last day of the season, the Steelers can either be the No. 5 seed or miss the playoffs altogether. The Ravens, even without an incentive to let the starters finish the game with the No. 2 seed locked up, end up getting their revenge for 2025 and eliminate Aaron Rodgers in his final game.
In the AFC playoffs, the Ravens eliminate New England in the 7-2 matchup. Then the big one, Justin Herbert works out his playoff demons and shreds the Chiefs to win his first playoff game. The Bengals take care of Houston after another bad outing for Stroud.
Like in the 2022 season, the Bengals go into Buffalo and despite the Bills finally getting the No. 1 seed this year, they lose in the first playoff game in their new stadium as the Bengals force Allen into mistakes and Burrow outplays him.
No longer a Harbaugh Bowl, but Ravens-Chargers is a battle and the Chargers find a way on the road in that one too as Herbert is on his 2003 Peyton Manning type of run. But like Manning that year, it comes crashing down in flames in the AFC Championship Game as Herbert throws multiple picks to Burrow’s defense, and the Bengals advance to the Super Bowl.
With that said, I do love this script in the way it shows the Bills and Ravens can lead the conference now that they’ve moved on from their longtime coaches, though they still can’t get it done in January for the Super Bowl with rookie coaches. The Chargers finally win some playoff games with Herbert. The Patriots sneak in but lose immediately. The Chiefs are still there but have their worst playoff run of the Mahomes era with their weakest roster. The Bengals finally go on a run similar to 2021-22.
It feels right to me.
NFC
1. LA Rams (14-3)
2. Green Bay (11-6)
3. Philadelphia (10-7)
4. Tampa Bay (9-8)
5. Seattle (13-4)
6. Detroit (10-7)
7. Chicago (10-7)
We get another Round III between the Packers and Chicago, and this time, the Packers close and win. The Eagles frustrate Jared Goff once again and win that one in the snow. The Seahawks take care of business on a Monday night in Tampa Bay, the NFC South Invitational.
That sets up a third Rams-Seahawks game since Christmas. This time, the Rams force Darnold into a big turnover (or a Garrett sack) and win the game. The Packers defend home field against the Eagles for some 2024 revenge.
In the NFC Championship Game, Jordan Love plays well against that stacked defense, but Stafford and the Rams find a way to pull it out by a late FG to advance to the Super Bowl.
SUPER BOWL LXI
Yep, it’s a Super Bowl rematch form five years ago with the Rams hosting the Bengals at SoFi Stadium. Same result too. The Bengals are leading in the fourth quarter, Stafford works the ball down the field with Puka Nacua instead of Kupp this time, and they take a late lead that Burrow is unable to answer with Garrett and Donald both collapsing on him on pivotal plays to secure the victory.
The Rams end the drought for big preseason favorites after winning two games at SoFi by 3 points each to close the season. A familiar script for sure, but this is the decade of reboots and sequels, and this is a Los Angeles Super Bowl on Valentine’s Day.
What else would you expect? That is my vision for the 2026 season. Not a changing of the guard. Just a reshuffling to arrive at the same point as five years ago, then we can have a whole offseason to argue about the same things.
In a way, I’m glad I don’t have to come up with a fancy title for this like I do the weekly predictions, because this has not been a weekend I’d like to remember. The shootings at Brown University and in Australia set a dark tone for Sunday, and it continued through the night with the reported murders of Rob Reiner and his wife.
I grew up watching Rob’s classic films that should stand the test of time, then I found out around middle school (or early high school) that he was an actor first on All in the Family, so I got to appreciate him as Meathead too. It’s an unthinkable tragedy and not the way you’d ever want to see someone’s story end.
In a sick way, I’m relieved to hear it may have been his son having a mental breakdown who committed the murders instead of some random nutter who did this over a difference of opinion on politics as Reiner was outspoken for years about liberal viewpoints and his disdain for Trump.
In many ways, his career was so admirable as someone who could take a joke, tell a joke, but still be serious when it came time for serious matters, and he had his convictions and beliefs and wasn’t afraid to express them. I think we’re losing a lot of that in today’s society where you have to be Team Blue or Team Red at all times and there’s no straying from the one right viewpoint on so many things.
We lost a genuine person, a creative who helped film some of the most iconic scenes and lines in film history at the peak of his powers:
“You can’t handle the truth!”
“I never had any friends later on like the ones I had when I was twelve. Jesus, does anyone?”
“I’ll have what she’s having.”
It’s all so inconceivable, much like this 2025 NFL season has been.
On Sunday, we saw the Patriots blow a 21-0 lead to Buffalo, the Chiefs’ playoff streak ended at 10 years in Week 15, we lost Patrick Mahomes and Micah Parsons to torn ACLs, we may have lost Davante Adams for the biggest NFC game this Thursday, and we watched Philip Rivers throw a game-ending interception right before a delayed start time for 60 Minutes in the year 2025 after he nearly pulled off one of the biggest upsets in NFL history.
We had nine games with a comeback opportunity, and six games with a double-digit comeback win ties the single-week NFL record.
Just one inconceivable thing after another, and I believe I do know what that word means.
While Patriots fans were busy claiming they have a 15-year Super Bowl window with Drake Maye, I recall his win at Buffalo earlier this season only saw him play well in the second half. There’s so much he has to prove in this league before we start putting him in those conversations, and on Sunday, he showed us he’s not ready to take the AFC East over from Buffalo.
It may still happen this year, but it didn’t on Sunday when the Patriots had their chance with a 21-0 lead and a 24-7 lead at halftime. They folded as Maye again only had one good half against Buffalo, and it wasn’t the half that you want it to be in winning time as he is now 0-7 at 4QC opportunities in the NFL.
Sure, the Patriots technically had a go-ahead touchdown drive in the fourth quarter in this game after TreVeyon Henderson hit his second long touchdown run of the game (65 yards) on the only play of the drive. Maye was getting excessive praise for his lead blocking on the score, but that play was largely Henderson’s speed after the line failed him and he got outside to score.
But the Bills answered back with their balanced attack after what was a slow start for Josh Allen in the passing game in the snowy, cold conditions. Keon Coleman’s lack of separation actually paid off on a big third-down DPI penalty that was a legit call, and that helped extend the Buffalo drive for an 11-yard touchdown run by Cook with 6:48 left. Buffalo led 35-31.
Maye had his opportunities to deliver his MVP moment with the first 4QC of his NFL career, something I heard analyst J.J. Watt elude to on the CBS broadcast. People know he doesn’t have one yet, and his only turnover in this game was an arm punt on an earlier 3rd-and-long, but in crunch time, he was just off on some throws to Hunter Henry and Henderson. A couple of ill-timed sacks happened too, and on 4th-and-5 at his own 22, Maye’s final pass was knocked down by Joey Bosa with 1:47 left. The Bills ran out the clock to complete the 21-point comeback.
There was no reverse psychology for me on this one. I liked Buffalo all week, because I think they’re the better team, the more battle-tested team, and they understand how to win big games like this one. The Patriots aren’t there yet, and while they hit some bigger runs than I expected with Henderson, I don’t think they can count on those again in a rematch while the Bills have a reliable running game with Cook behind that line. They also still have the better quarterback until proven otherwise.
Sunday is why I think the Bills should still get to the Super Bowl even if they don’t win the AFC East. They have this experience edge, and they almost have this 2006 Colts type of thing going on where they’re a horrible run defense (truly terrible), but you can kind of expect them to do well against the pass. You saw the 2006 Colts intercept Tom Brady 4 times on SNF in Foxboro. They held up against him in the AFC-CG too that year after getting through Scrambled Brains Trent Green, Old Steve McNair, then Rex Grossman in the Super Bowl.
Now look at the Bills in 2025. They made Aaron Rodgers look bloodied and ancient, and he probably contemplated retirement, and that could even end up being the 5-4 matchup on wild card weekend here. They held Patrick Mahomes under 50% completions for the first time ever, and unlike Houston doing it with drops last week, they did it legitimately.
The Bills just held Maye to 155 passing yards after he had 200+ in every game this season. Who’s going to run wild on them in the playoffs? Probably not Denver, Jacksonville, Chargers, or Houston. Baltimore with Derrick Henry? Sure, but they’d have to make the tournament first, and we’ve seen them fold enough times in the playoffs (especially to Buffalo) to not be too worried about that this January. We’ve watched the Bills destroy Denver in the playoffs last January.
Houston might be the No. 1 team Buffalo has to worry about since that defense has owned Allen the last two years, and C.J. Stroud’s actually had some playoff success.
But with the state of the AFC, this is still setting up very well for Buffalo even if the AFC East and No. 1 seed they were supposed to get this year are both unlikely to happen. But it’s also a huge win because it creates that mental block where the Patriots still are looking up to the Bills in the AFC East.
They had their chance to take over and blew it. We’ll see how they respond from here.
Meanwhile, the 2006 Colts were hardly the best Indy team in the Manning era. But it’s the one that had the right stuff against the right set of opponents in the postseason, and that could be what happens for the Bills in 2025. You’ll just have to spare me the Allen > Manning nonsense since Manning had an all-time great year in 2006, then became the first quarterback ever to beat the top three defenses in the same postseason, and he did get through his nemesis (Patriots) in the AFC-CG.
But this could still be Buffalo’s year. It almost has to be or it never will happen for this team as currently constructed.
Chargers at Chiefs: Life Is Pain, Highness
I’m not trying to write a full eulogy now for the 2025 Chiefs on a somber weekend even though their season is officially dead. They’re 6-8, Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL, and they’re eliminated from the playoffs after everyone they needed to lose won, and after they blew a 10-point lead to the Chargers at home.
You could point to many things that ended the Chiefs’ playoff streak at 10 years, and most of it are things they have no one but themselves to blame:
Rashee Rice getting a 6-game suspension and the front-loaded schedule he missed for it.
Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy colliding on the first pass play of the season in Brazil, likely stunting the development and plan for Worthy in Year 2 while Rice was out.
Kelce’s butterfingers moments on dropped completions turned interceptions in clutch moments against the Eagles and Texans.
Letting Herbert run for a first down on 3rd-and-14 in Brazil.
The long list of mistakes in Jacksonville, the night that really started to turn things sour for the Chiefs this year.
How they never seemed to seize the moments before and after halftime in their losses.
Their typical no-show performance in Buffalo in Week 9 while the Bills treat it like their Super Bowl.
Mahomes and the offense not closing out more drives in Denver, their last stand for the AFC West reign in Week 11.
The absurd penalties in Dallas on Thanksgiving, and Rice’s drop on third-and-8.
All the drive-killing drops and Andy Reid’s 4th-down foolishness against Houston.
Even before you get to Sunday’s execution, this was a Dead Team Walking with 60% of the offensive line filled by backups, and they even lost a fourth tackle in this game, meaning it was double third-string tackles for Mahomes on a bad leg against another strong defensive front that sacked him 5 times.
If it wasn’t showing up in the pass protection, it showed up in the run blocking on Sunday as the Chiefs had 19 carries for 34 yards from the running backs. Mahomes had 15 yards, including a 12-yard scramble touchdown on the opening drive. But after building a 13-3 lead with 0:38 left before halftime, the next time Mahomes touched the ball, it was tied again.
From there, it was your typical Chiefs failure in 2025, another game with limited possessions as the defense couldn’t get off the field on third downs, the offense couldn’t sustain drives, and Rice took another big pop for a third-down drop. Oh, there was even a 5-play stretch where four different defenders were injured.
By the time you get to the fourth quarter, Mahomes threw probably his worst interception of the season on 3rd-and-12 in the red zone to a tightly covered Kareem Hunt, a play that shouldn’t even exist in the playbook for this offense. The play all the more inexplicable when Mahomes made his two best plays of the game right before it to convert twice in a row on third down to Tyquan Thornton with flags making him redo it.
Then on the fateful final drive of the season, of course it started with a holding penalty on the punt return that backed the ball up to the KC 8 with 5:20 left. Those special teams penalties have been automatic all year.
With the ball at the LAC 46 at the two-minute warning, you still thought Mahomes would at least set up the game-tying field goal for overtime, or even get the go-ahead touchdown as he’s done so many times before against the Chargers and other teams.
But that’s when the torn ACL happened on a throwaway outside of the pocket. Non-contact injury too. Gardner Minshew had to enter the game, made a few completions, but in field goal range, the drive again went to shit with a delay of game followed by a forced throw to Kelce that was picked to end the game. To end the season.
To end an era as that was probably the last meaningful target of Kelce’s career, and he was great on the drive too with four catches. But it’s all over after the Chiefs, the masters of situational football for year, threw two picks in game-tying field goal range in the fourth quarter. A befitting ending to a terribly disappointing season.
A season where the Chiefs somehow came up short in every single one-score game except for the Colts’ comeback, and then seemingly every other close game that didn’t even involve them went the right way for teams like the Broncos, Patriots, Bills, Jaguars, Texans, Chargers, etc. to create this early elimination.
With a mid-December ACL injury, now you just wonder if Mahomes’ 2026 is compromised in any way, even if it’s just September. That’s walking a thin line on the road to 100% recovery, and while some have done it in less time (Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers had their ACLs in the playoffs in January and were back by Week 1), Mahomes uses his legs more than they ever did.
Barring a miraculous offseason, the Chiefs may enter 2026 no better than third in the AFC West odds, let alone the whole AFC. If that doesn’t spark some major changes by the organization, then I don’t know what will.
They’ve had their runs. They did things a certain way in 2018-21, then that got stale and they adjusted by trading Tyreek Hill and pulling off a strong draft class. That deteriorated too, but they almost got a three-peat out of it, so they ran it back for 2025 with the hope of better health luck, more blocking for Mahomes, more speed at receiver, and more takeaways on defense.
But that offensive line continuity lasted about five games. There appears to never have been a solid plan for how to create an offense centered around Rice and Worthy, and Reid never really knew what to do with new players like Thornton and Brashard Smith this year. The takeaways dried up even worse as the pressure packages fell off for Spags, who didn’t even have McDuffie available this week and who knows who else is done for the year with injuries piling up now. Even kicker Harrison Butker was so much worse this year you’d think Kamala had taken office in January.
Again, it’s so many different things, and it changed game to game, and yet the quarterback is the one who will somehow take the biggest shots for this failure of a season.
I was always hesitant early in the year to boast that Mahomes had a better Year 9 than Tom Brady, which was his 2008 ACL season. But he did by default, and at the end of the day, his Year 9 also became a lost ACL season.
For Brady, Year 10 (2009) was his choking dog year where he blew every close game after the Buffalo comeback in Week 1, then turned the ball over three times in the first quarter of the wild card loss to the Ravens, a 33-14 blowout where Joe Flacco had 4 completions.
I hope Mahomes can beat that season in 2026 too, but the Chiefs are going to have to really reinvent themselves here, because asking Mahomes to be Superman and have these games where he led the team in rushing and had to make more plays than ever out of structure did a number on him in the end.
They better hope this is his only season-ending injury, something most notable quarterbacks only had to deal with once in their long careers.
If 2025 doesn’t go down as by far the most frustrating, disappointing season of Mahomes’ career, then the Chiefs will have really done him wrong down the road.
Colts at Seahawks: Hello, My Name is Philip Rivers Jr. You Killed My Father. Prepare to Die.
A lot is wrong in the world right now, but the image of Philip Rivers laboring from the pocket in a one-score game in the fourth quarter in the late Sunday afternoon window is a real throwback to the 2010s.
So is watching him throw a game-ending interception like clockwork, but you have to give the guy a lot of credit for even trying. He went from celebrating his 44th birthday and five years of retirement on Tuesday to suiting up as a 2-touchdown road underdog against an elite defense five days later.
The fact his only turnover came in the last seconds when he was forced to throw something deep out of desperation after his defense wasted his go-ahead field goal in the final 50 seconds is a testament to his knowledge of where to go with the ball and quickly. Rivers was only sacked once in the game too.
Sure, there were some embarrassing snaps like when he fell down and had to get up before going down again. He looked about as unathletic as an NFL quarterback ever has on that play. And it’s not like he was pushing the ball down the field with luck. The Colts’ two longest pass plays gained 17 and 16 yards.
But if you compare how someone like Minnesota rookie Max Brosmer played against this Seattle defense, then Rivers looked great by comparison. Still, it’s another loss after the Seahawks made their sixth field goal of the game after they nearly gave this one away, trailing 13-3 early.
Rivers is one of the only true football psychopaths who would even try playing after being this far gone from the game. I imagine he’ll try to finish the season, and he’ll have better starts than this.
But it does say a lot about where young quarterbacks are in this league if he’s truly their best option right now. Still, this game could have been an absolute disaster and instead it was nearly an all-time upset.
Packers at Broncos: These Broncos Go to 11
We already had one home underdog on a 10-game winning streak lose on Sunday (Patriots), so it wasn’t about to be two with Denver hosting Green Bay. I’m proud to say I got both games right this week, and I liked Denver because of the home-field advantage and the way the Packers don’t usually create takeaways despite the presence of Micah Parsons and his pressure.
Well, unfortunately Parsons tore his ACL in this one, so there probably goes my Super Bowl pick in the NFC with Green Bay. They already lost Tucker Kraft to a torn ACL, so now you lose your best defender that was supposed to put you over the top, and wideout Christian Watson also got hurt (again) in this one, so that’s more bad news.
The Packers played well early but the Denver defense got some picks from Jordan Love, who we know can be reckless with the ball. So can Bo Nix, but he played maybe his best NFL game yet on Sunday with 4 touchdowns, which is again why I think he has that ability to be the Joe Flacco or Eli Manning of his generation and go on a Super Bowl run with some improbable devil luck going his way. He’s just got that flat liner approach to his game where the moment doesn’t seem to get too big for him against all expectations.
Love had the ball four times in the fourth quarter of a one-possession game, but the best he could do was a field goal early. He couldn’t get the offense moving on any of the three drives down 34-26.
It’s a big win for Denver (12-2), the 11th in a row, as it looks to get the No. 1 seed this year.
Lions at Rams: Sean McVay Is Cooking
The Rams got off to a bit of a slow start in this one with Aidan Hutchinson getting a pick, and Detroit led 24-14 at one point. But the Rams have really cranked up their rushing attack since the bye, and they had 159 more yards in this one to go along with 368 passing yards by Matthew Stafford, who also threw two touchdowns.
Puka Nacua dominated with 181 receiving yards on a day where Davante Adams left with a hamstring injury that could be troubling going forward. But the Detroit defense still had few answers for such a balanced, explosive, and efficient attack from the Rams who piled up 41 points and controlled the second half.
Jared Goff played well early, but three straight three-and-out drives to start the second half is where the game got away from the Lions, who were always in catch-up mode after that. They didn’t register a true 4QC attempt until there were 13 seconds left in a 41-34 game, only enough time for a lateral attempt 80 yards away from the end zone, which obviously didn’t come close to working.
The Lions (8-6) are in a tough spot for the playoffs now while the Rams (11-3) have that huge game in Seattle this Thursday.
Ravens at Bengals: (Joe Burrow’s) Misery
Joe Burrow raised some alarms with his words on his 29th birthday this week that he might already be thinking about an early retirement a la Andrew Luck. Others saw it as a cryptic message to management to shape up or ship him out a la Carson Palmer in 2011.
On Sunday, Burrow by his own words said he wouldn’t have helped any team win a game with his play. He suffered the first shutout (24-0) of his NFL career as the Bengals came up empty on nine drives as Burrow threw two picks under pressure, including a pick-six in the fourth quarter to make it 24-0.
It was one of the roughest Burrow games ever, and you could see it early when he took a sack that knocked them out of field goal range on a cold day. He didn’t have Tee Higgins (concussion), but he didn’t have him on Thanksgiving either and did much better than this.
The Ravens didn’t need to do a ton offensively with the way this one played out. Let the Bengals hold the ball for almost 40 minutes before they self-destructed. In fact, the Bengals had the highest time of possession (39:19) for a team that was shutout in NFL history. The previous record belongs to the 2014 Raiders (Derek Carr’s rookie year) with 36:56 TOP in a 52-0 loss at the Rams.
Not the kind of records you want to be setting.
Panthers at Saints: Maybe Tyler Shough Should Have Started Week 1…
Early this season, the Saints were competitive with Spencer Rattler at quarterback but they weren’t winning. Maybe they should have started Tyler Shough earlier? He’s done a good job, and on Sunday against Carolina, he led the first fourth-quarter comeback and second game-winning drive of his career in a 20-17 win.
But coach Kellen Moore and Shough did get a bit lucky on the game-winning drive here. Out of timeouts, I really don’t think a QB draw with 12 seconds left was a good idea. Who do you think you are, the 2021 Cowboys in the playoffs against the 49ers? Oh wait, Moore was the OC for that team too. But I think right there you either risk the clock running out before the spike, or you set up a 62-yard field goal that might be too long.
Instead, Moore and Shough got lucky when a late hit was called on the slide, and the kicker only had to make from 47 yards, which he did to win the game. That’s the first 4QC for the Saints this year.
If Shough can keep ascending, they might even be the new favorites in the NFC South, a wasteland division, in 2026.
Vikings at Cowboys: Season Over After Facing NINE
Notice they really didn’t show Jerry Jones after the opening interception when a tipped ball got J.J. McCarthy. That’s because he did very well the rest of the night, shredding that defense when he targeted everyone not named Justin Jefferson, who dropped a touchdown and finished with 22 yards on 2-of-8 catches. Just a weird night, but McCarthy had 3 total touchdowns and threw for a career-high 250 yards with no sacks taken.
The Vikings can cook with this type of quarterback, but he won’t see many defenses as bad as Dallas. On the other side, the Cowboys had yet another game where they settled for way too many field goals, Brandon Aubrey missed two of them for a bad night for his high standards, and George Pickens (33 yards) was again very quiet.
Just like that, Dallas is 6-7-1 and needs a miracle to make the playoffs that isn’t going to happen now. They could have at least gave us one more week of keeping it interesting, because I do think it’s possible for Washington to beat the Eagles once. And we know the Bills can beat that team in Buffalo.
Alas, it’s all but over for the Cowboys, who punted on the season before it even started with the Micah Parsons trade and gave us a little fool’s gold in November before the harsh reality of another long offseason with no deep playoff run for America’s Team.
Giving up 34 points to a quarterback like McCarthy, who became a meme for the face of sucking ass this year, is a fitting way to end things for the 2025 Cowboys, a team that deserves to finish 8-8-1.
Cardinals at Texans: It’s the Arizona Blowout Week
This week was the blowout loss for Arizona (40-20), and Jacoby Brissett threw for 249 yards and 3 touchdowns anyway, coming up 1 yard short of his 8th game this year with 250 and multiple scoring tosses.
But the offense had minus-7 yards by the time it was 17-0 in the first quarter as Houston jumped all over them early with a big touchdown pass to Nico Collins, then the Cardinals botched some special teams play to dig the hole early.
Houston (9-5) might just run the table playing like this in this AFC.
Raiders at Broncos: Kenny Pickett Is Not the Answer
JFC, I thought Kenny “OneDrive” Pickett could at least give me one touchdown drive. But the 2025 Raiders are the ultimate get-right game as they lost 31-0, almost as badly as when they lost 31-0 to the Chiefs, which was obviously an outlier for that team this year.
But Pickett, starting for the first time this year for an injured Geno Smith, was 15-of-25 for 64 yards with 4 sacks for 35 yards. So, he really didn’t contribute anything to the offense, which was held scoreless on eight drives (no first downs on 5 of them).
The Eagles made it look pretty easy. Dallas Goedert caught 2 short touchdowns and it should have been 3.
Jets at Jaguars: Have a Day, Trevor Lawrence
I never bought into the Aaron Glenn hiring since he had even worse of a defensive coordinator than Robert Saleh when he took the job for the Jets. At least Saleh could point to 2019 with the 49ers. Glenn’s resume is basically “I had Dan Campbell’s offense lighting it up and I wasn’t the worst defense in the league with a ton of guys on injured reserve last year.”
Because the Jets are terrible on defense under Glenn, and it’s hard to say they were any better before Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams were traded than they are without them.
But Sunday was certainly a low point in a 48-20 loss to the Jaguars where they let Trevor Lawrence become the first quarterback ever to throw for 300 yards, rush for 50, and throw 5 touchdowns with 1 rushing score too.
Browns at Bears: Caleb Williams Is Fearless
Maybe I should have stuck to my narrative that the 2025 Browns are overrated on defense, because the Bears had few problems dropping 31 points on them in a blowout win. The defense came up with plenty of splash plays against rookie Shedeur Sanders (with an assist from Jerry Jeudy on a pick in the end zone), but Caleb Williams made some great throws and had one of his better games too this year.
Titans at 49ers: Third-and-Purdy
There used to be a ‘Third-and-Jimmy’ thing when Jimmy Garoppolo was the 49ers’ quarterback. He was unusually good at converting third downs in obvious passing situations, and maybe we should just give Kyle Shanahan some credit for those play calls and his scheme. Because apparently Brock Purdy has done some similar things, or at least he was cooking on third down on Sunday against maybe the worst team in the NFL in the Titans.
The 49ers were 9/15 on third down and the game had more points (37-24) than expected, though the spread (49ers -12.5) was on point. It seems like the Titans do better at scoring against NFC West teams than anyone else this year.
Commanders at Giants: No Late Darts
The Commanders (4-10) finally won their first game since Week 5, but they didn’t make it easy, losing two fumbles in the final 5:50 to give the Giants (3-11) a shot at a 15-point comeback late.
Chalk it up as another good data point for kicking the extra point first, because by making it a 29-21 game with 3:43 left, the Giants got a lucky break with a McNichols fumble, and Jaxson Dart was at midfield with 2:38 left in an 8-point game. There’s your chance to tie it. Unfortunately, he came up empty on 4th-and-8 at the Washington 38 to end the rally attempt.
Almost just as bad, Dart reportedly made his fifth trip to the blue tent for a concussion check this season before returning to finish the game. These Giants better invest in one hell of a good backup quarterback.
Next week: Week 16 could peak right away with Rams-Seahawks on Thursday night. Can Sam Darnold really keep losing to this team? Can Stafford lock up MVP with a big night in a huge game? Then we get two Saturday island games but at least the night one (Packers vs. Bears) could be good for the NFC North.
Sunday is probably the worst 1:00 PM slate of the year just because of the reality of these teams in Week 16. I guess Chargers-Cowboys is the standout. At 4:00, the Jags are in Denver and the Steelers are in Detroit. The SNF Patriots-Ravens game was flexed. Then I suppose we’ll see Rivers get another shot against the 49ers on Monday night to end it and maybe all but end the Colts’ playoff odds this year.
I said Sunday could prove to be a franchise-altering day in the AFC, and I think the results speak for themselves.
The Colts (8-5) have likely gone from 7-1 and the No. 1 seed to out of the playoffs after losing to the Jaguars again and losing Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles.
The Bengals (4-9) blew a snow game in Buffalo that should absolutely give the team the green light to fire Zac Taylor and his entire staff after Joe Burrow and company will miss the playoffs for a third-straight season.
The Ravens (6-7) lost at home to the Steelers (7-6), and while the AFC North is hardly decided, Baltimore still has to play the Patriots and Packers (teams competing for No. 1 seeds), and teams they just lost to at home (Bengals and Steelers on the road). If there was ever a season to force John Harbaugh out of town…
The Chiefs (6-7) couldn’t finish another close game against a good team and are on life support for the playoffs, needing to win out and for the Colts and Chargers to lose multiple games (actually not that unrealistic). But with how this year has gone, they’d be foolish not to make some major changes for 2026 as their AFC West reign is over and so may be their playoff streak.
I just wrote earlier this week how we’re trying to make sense of the new contenders this year and the unprecedented decline of so many contenders at once. However, saying teams like the Bengals, Ravens, and Chiefs (Steelers too) need to make big changes for 2026 is not an overreaction to one off year. There have been things festering for multiple years there, and with the teams in dire situations going into Week 15, maybe they’ll finally realize something has to change.
As for the rest of Week 14, a lot of the games were duds as we’ve only had six comeback opportunities. In fact, the only double-digit comeback win of the last two weeks was the Bills over Bengals today, and the only fourth-quarter lead change on Sunday was Joe Burrowing throwing that pick-six in Buffalo.
You have to give the 2025 Chiefs credit. If this was their last stand for the playoffs, and that’ll look increasingly likely if the Chargers win on Monday night, then they gave the home crowd all the greatest hits to their season:
An embarrassing pass rush when they didn’t blitz, leaving numerous receivers wide open on third-and-longs.
No takeaways on defense again.
Harrison Butker had about the loudest doink ever on a missed 42-yard field goal.
Limited touches for Brashard Smith (a 7-yard run) and Tyquan Thornton (19 yards but also had a touchdown bomb knocked away in the end zone) despite showing solid play.
Remember when the first pass of the season was Travis Kelce running into Xavier Worthy in Brazil? The first pass here saw backup left tackle Wanya Morris suffer a game-ending injury, leaving the offensive line without three starters and placing a third-string left tackle (UDFA rookie) in his NFL debut against the No. 1 defense.
Mahomes led the team in rushing with 59 yards (they’re 0-4 this year when that happens).
Season on the line, a pass from Mahomes went right off of Kelce’s hands for an interception (third time this year).
But there were a couple wrinkles in this performance that made it stand out as the worst loss of them all this season for the Chiefs: Aggression inconsistency and dropped passes.
The Chiefs, even going back to last year, have made a habit of playing games with limited possessions, usually getting 8-9 drives a week, the lowest total in the NFL. This makes it harder on the offense as every mistake gets magnified, but they made it work better last year with clutch plays to close out one-score games. The exact kind of plays they keep failing on this year.
But this game was different. The Chiefs had a season-high 13 possessions as each team had the ball 13 times. That’s because there were a lot of three-and-out drives and quick stops. It wasn’t a game with limited possessions, so the Chiefs could stand to make some mistakes here as the defense played well even after losing top corner Trent McDuffie early.
That’s why Andy Reid’s fourth-down decision making didn’t make any sense. He let the Dallas game beat him twice, because he was criticized in that one for a fourth-down punt in a shootout with Dallas. But this wasn’t a shootout. It was a grind with C.J. Stroud playing ice cold in the second half.
Reid let the offense go for a 4th-and-1 that led to a 2-yard Kareem Hunt touchdown in the third quarter. They needed the touchdown, so that was fine. But two drives later, why settle for the 36-yard field goal on 4th-and-2 at the 18 to tie the game with 1:50 left in the third? Why not be consistent and go for it again with your offense starting to move it well and the defense playing so well? You were getting possessions.
Then the real head-scratcher: 4th-and-1 at your own 31 in a 10-10 game with 10:22 left. The Texans just punted on a 4th-and-1 at their own 35, because they knew what kind of game this was. Why didn’t Reid understand it? Instead, he let the offense go for it, and Mahomes’ pass to Rashee Rice was defended tightly by Stingley, and I couldn’t tell if it was another defensed-dropped or what. But it was a turnover on downs either way.
Now a struggling Houston offense was set up 31 yards away from the end zone, and that gave the Texans new life to get a go-ahead touchdown, which they did. That decision largely killed the Chiefs in this game.
Then in getting the ball back in a 17-10 game, Reid basically did it again, going for a 4th-and-4 at his own 41 where failure almost likely leads to a 10-point deficit with under 5:00 left. Game over against this defense. And once again, Mahomes’ pass to Rice was flat out dropped.
#Chiefs are going for it again on 4th and 4 on their own 41,,, and a huge drop by Rashee Rice! This game might be over now. pic.twitter.com/PAExkvtKjy
Surprisingly, Houston went three-and-out after that one, giving Mahomes another chance from 92 yards away and 3:44 left. After a short drop by Kelce on first down, Mahomes threw a pass that should have been a first down to him that went off his hands and right to the defense for the third pick of the night. The second one to start the fourth quarter was an arm punt on third down out of FG range and out of 4-down territory, but this one hurt and it’s something Kelce has done three times this year to Mahomes – none bigger than here.
That one was the dagger as the Texans used up most of the clock to add a field goal for a 20-10 lead with 0:30 left. From there, it was just two stat-padding completions to avoid Mahomes finishing a full game with under 150 passing yards for the first time in his career. It was the first time he threw for 3 interceptions and no touchdowns.
But look what it took to get there. Three linemen out, the backup LT going out on play 1, the No. 1 defense on the other side, and a career-high 8 or 9 drops depending how you want to count some of those plays. Those drops combined with some really poor fourth-down decision making by Reid were actually far more damaging to the game than the backup offensive line was. This wasn’t Super Bowl 55 or Super Bowl 59 all over again with constant pass rush.
This was receivers not getting open against good coverage, then when they did, not completing plays as Mahomes has never had this many drops in one game. Just a ridiculous effort in the biggest game of the year for this team.
If this was Kelce’s last playoff-contention type of game in his NFL career, he finishes it with more drops (2) than catches (1) for the first time in his career. I’d say Mahomes might be a little happy on the downlow if Kelce chooses to retire and marry the most famous woman in the world. But then when you tell me Rice, who dropped a big third-and-8 in Dallas last week in a similar clutch situation, is supposed to be his next top target, I think the Chiefs are in some long-term trouble if they don’t sort this out.
On a cold night with both teams feeling the playoff pressure, the Texans stepped up and the Chiefs did not.
pic.twitter.com/pBdg1R6zud Crushing hit from #Texans Jalen Pitre, who is having a huge ball game with his fourth interception of season and lot of physical plays @KPRC2
Fight or flight. The 2018-24 Chiefs had it in them to get it done in these games. The 2025 Chiefs simply do not, and the shame of it all is people will look at a game like this and still blame it all on the quarterback.
As for the Texans, they have hands down the best defense in the league this season. They were also very good in 2024, so we know this isn’t a fluke. They’ve been to the playoffs the last two years, got to the divisional round both times, and if they keep playing like this, they just might be able to win out until the Super Bowl in this weakened AFC. They might be the closest team we’ve seen to the 2015 Broncos from a decade ago, and yes, Davis Mills did his Brock Osweiler-level job of saving the season with some big wins over the Jags and Bills.
From 0-3 to 8-5, DeMeco Ryans and company deserve a lot of credit for this turnaround. As for Reid and the Chiefs, they aren’t mathematically eliminated, but it sure looks dire even if collapses by the Chargers (see schedule) and Colts (Jones/schedule) are not improbable at all.
What’s improbable is thinking the 2025 Chiefs can ever get through four straight wins without screwing up a game. They haven’t done it all year, and I no longer expect them to.
It’s a lost season.
Steelers at Ravens: The Rivalry Continues, Same As It Ever Was
This may be a selfish reason to want the continued employment of Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh for these teams, but would the Steelers vs. Ravens rivalry be the same without them? Like, imagine these teams go in the opposite direction and hire some dorks trying to cosplay as Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. It just wouldn’t be the same and what makes this such a great rivalry filled with hard-fought, close games.
You can always throw out the records and spreads when these teams play. Did it matter that both played like shit at home in big losses last week where they turned it over and the quarterbacks were brutal? Nope, you ended up with a 27-22 thriller between two multi-time MVPs at quarterback in their first ever meeting.
Aaron Rodgers turned 42 this week but he looked as good as he has all season. He hit a deep ball to DK Metcalf on his first pass after going an entire month without a pass completed over 20 yards down the field. I want to say he had four in this game alone. He also scored his first rushing touchdown in over four years on a third-down scramble. His movement looked much better this week as if he got a Lazarus Pit to celebrate his 42nd birthday.
Then again, the Baltimore defense has been known to help quarterbacks perk up as Rodgers passed for a season-high 284 yards while taking no sacks. He also had no running game as the Steelers finished with 15 carries for 34 yards for him. Meanwhile, the Ravens rushed for 217 yards in the loss, producing this hilarious statistic about losing a game with a huge rushing margin:
The Steelers have won 3 games since WW2 where they were outrushed by 170+ yards:
• 2020 at Ravens (-217) • 2025 at Ravens (-183) • 2021 at Ravens (-170)
That’s Steelers vs. Ravens in the 2020s for you. More accurately, that’s the Lamar Jackson era as to this day you still have to question Jackson’s arm and ability in games like this, another big one with first place in the AFC North on the line and the Ravens having a tougher remaining schedule.
Jackson won his last two starts against the Steelers in 2024, but his rest of career numbers and moments have been poor to say the least. In this game, he didn’t break 100 passing yards until the fourth quarter as the Ravens were leaning on the ground game with Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell also broke a 55-yard run.
There were some bright moments for Jackson in the fourth quarter, but the Ravens never put it together for a touchdown drive while the Steelers floundered on offense late. There was a go-ahead touchdown to Isaiah Likely that was ruled a drop after Joey Porter Jr. helped knock the ball out before Likely got a third foot down or did a football move. That was a tough call without great clarity from the NFL on what a catch is in 2025.
That drive ended in no points, because after the Likely mistake on first down, the Steelers stopped Henry twice, then Mark Andrews possibly got in the way of a Jackson pass on fourth down intended for DeAndre Hopkins in the back of the end zone with 2:22 left.
But given one more chance with 1:56 left and 74 yards to go, Jackson led a very poor two-minute drill, taking 69 seconds just to move the ball 8 yards. Reaching the Pittsburgh 30 with 9 seconds left, any shot at a Hail Mary was denied when Alex Highsmith sacked Jackson to end the game and give the Steelers a 7-6 record and first place.
The Ravens have struggled to play complementary football all season, and Sunday was no different. Pittsburgh finally won a big game this year without relying on a ton of turnovers on defense. Rodgers was excellent for three quarters, and if Likely wasn’t in a funk with the end zone, it may have been wasted again by the defense.
But the Steelers have been getting the best of this rivalry, especially when the games are at their closest. That’s also why I had full confidence in Pittsburgh still finishing with a winning record, because I knew they’d never get swept by Baltimore, especially not this Baltimore team.
Now we’ll see if they can build on this win and take advantage of a home game with Miami next week. Maybe even get a break with the Bengals possibly sweeping Baltimore on Sunday to create more separation.
But the sportsbooks have finally come around to making the Steelers the favorites (-160 at FanDuel) to win the AFC North over Baltimore (+170) and Cincinnati (+1300). There’s a reason almost every 1-5 team fails to come all the way back to make the playoffs.
The Ravens are just too mistake prone this year. Similar to the Chiefs in that regard, another team in the AFC they can’t seem to beat when they have to.
Lamar Jackson is now:
• 1-6 vs. Chiefs • 2-4 vs. Bills • 3-5 vs. Steelers • 3-5 in the playoffs
Ever since the Bears hired coach Ben Johnson, he has done an incredible job of saying the right things time and time again. He just probably wishes he wasn’t right when he said last week that the 9-3 Bears are winning in spite of their passing game with Caleb Williams.
On Sunday in Green Bay with the No. 1 seed on the line and the lead in the NFC North, Johnson was very prescient as Williams struggled mightily early on while Jordan Love had some key passes down the field for big plays (including third downs) that paced the Packers to numerous leads in a game they never trailed.
But Williams did make some of his best plays late, and even tied the game in the fourth quarter before the Packers marched for a game-winning touchdown. I predicted a 27-20 win by Green Bay, and they were up 28-21 late with Williams driving for what could have been his sixth comeback in the final 2:00 this year as you had to think Johnson probably goes for 2 on the road the way he is from the Dan Campbell school of thought.
But after the run got stuffed on 3rd-and-1, Williams blew a good play call with a bad throw on fourth down and it was intercepted in the end zone to end the game. Just like that, the Bears (9-4) fell from the No. 1 to the No. 7 seed.
These teams will meet again in 12 days, but Williams is going to need to be a lot more efficient if the Bears are going to get a split here.
Bengals at Bills: Mr. Perfect Until He Has to Be
I can say this about most quarterbacks, but Joe Burrow is actually more likeable than his annoying fans make him out to be. Watching him on those shows like Quarterback S2 or Hard KnocksIn-Season with the AFC North, you can see he’s a football junkie, a Batman fan, and just wants to win games. This league is also in need of a pocket passer who can still frequently throw for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns without being a play-action merchant.
But where things get annoying with Burrow is the nonstop nicknames and the way the media has shoved him into conversations he doesn’t belong, or pretended that he’s a clutch player. I saw the “Joe Brrr” notification from the NFL app before Sunday’s snow game in Buffalo, and it was just earlier this week where I again pointed out that Burrow and his top wide receiver duo simply don’t win games in the clutch or shootouts despite being the most expensive trio in NFL history.
Burrow also has just one comeback win in the final 8:00 of a game in his career, and Sunday was no different. My other issues with Burrow stem from him being a sack merchant, often getting into trouble by looking for the big play. It should go against his nature as a perfectionist, which I think gets him into trouble in games where things don’t go well. He’ll let it snowball and not recover from a big mistake.
It all happened again on Sunday when Burrow went from playing a really fine game in Buffalo in the snow with four touchdowns on the first six drives. It was like he picked right up where he left off with his success against the Bills in 2022-23.
But one fateful pass from the Buffalo 33 with 5:35 left, leading 28-25, changed everything for the Bengals. Burrow tried to throw a quick pass, did a weird shot-put delivery on it, and Christian Benford was there for the 63-yard pick-six to put the Bills ahead 32-28.
Is Burrow so sick of me pointing out he has one comeback win in the last 8:00 that he tried to create a situation for himself to succeed? Then on the very next play, he got picked again on a battled ball at the line. The Bills took over at the Cincinnati 29, and of course Josh Allen, who got Dalton Kincaid back at a good time, was going to take advantage of the No. 32 defense on a short field by throwing another touchdown on fourth down.
Burrow answered quickly with his fourth touchdown pass to cut it to 39-34 with 2:13 left. That drive is another example of why stats that ignore the scoreboard show Burrow doing well in this situation when it was the two drives before this that mattered more when he had the picks.
But even after his defense sacked Allen to bring up 3rd-and-15, they gave up another 17-yard scramble to Allen, who also took off for a 40-yard touchdown earlier with inexplicably no defender in sight of his path to the end zone.
This was a very winnable game for the Bengals on the road to keep their season alive, but Burrow picked the worst time to make his worst play of the year. He crumbled instead of finishing the game, and given his history, it’s not that surprising.
He’s just not proven to be a closer yet, and this will be his third-straight missed postseason.
I still contend this is the worst Buffalo team since 2019, but if this is an AFC where they don’t have to worry about the Chiefs at all, don’t have to worry about going to Baltimore, and don’t have to worry about these Bengals, then Allen has no excuses left to not get to a Super Bowl.
Letting Drake Maye, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, or C.J. Stroud get there before Allen does would be disastrous to his legacy.
Colts at Jaguars: Indiana Is Cursed in 2025
I was all in on the Jaguars to win this one despite being a 1.5-point home underdog. But you have to see Daniel Jones tear his Achilles on a different leg than the one he had the fractured fibula with. I’m not a doctor, so I can’t comment if that may have led to this the way Tyrese Haliburton’s calf injury led to his Achilles in the NBA Finals, but it’s just been that kind of cursed year for Indiana sports teams. Caitlin Clark also had a season-ending groin injury in a year her Fever had a shot in the playoffs.
The Colts would have had a shot in this AFC if they were healthy, but between Jones going down and Sauce Gardner getting injured shortly after they traded for him, it’s been a brutal stretch for the Colts. From 7-1 to 8-5 and little hope with that tough schedule left.
Worse, they don’t even have a healthy (even if temporarily healthy) Anthony Richardson to go to and see if he can give them anything for the playoff run. They might have to snag Joe Flacco away from the Bengals somehow.
But give credit to the Jaguars. They scored a lot of points on short fields set up by the defense like they’ve been doing this year. I actually think they can get to 12-5 given the schedule, which includes another game with battered Indy.
Crazy how you can go from 7-1 and averaging over 3.0 points per drive to potentially finishing with a losing record and an offense that’s barely top 10, if that, when you consider the Colts have to play the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans.
Saints at Buccaneers: Tyler Shough Can Move Like That?
With all due respect to Taysom Hill, I don’t think your services are needed anymore in New Orleans. If Tyler Shough can move like that on his two rushing touchdowns in Tampa Bay, then there’s no reason he can’t keep the ball on some of those snaps they give to Hill.
Shough’s second touchdown run also completed the first game-winning drive of his NFL career as the Saints (+8.5) completed the 24-17 upset on the road despite the Bucs having more healthy weapons for Baker Mayfield, who struggled in this one.
But I would still argue Tampa Bay pissed this one away more than the Saints won it. Tampa Bay finished 2-of-7 on fourth down, so when you get 11 drives and end five of them on fourth down (plus one pick), that’s really brutal offense, and it’s not like these were 4th-and-desperate situations late in the game.
I don’t know if Todd Bowles wanted a bow with his points to take them, or if he thought this was the right strategy as these were the five fourth-down failures:
1Q, tied 7-7, 4th-and-1 at NO 45: Bucky Irving lost 7 yards on a run.
2Q, up 10-7, 4th-and-1 at NO 49: Tucker stuffed for no gain on a run.
2Q, up 10-7, 4th-and-15 at NO 47: Mayfield incomplete pass (I guess they weren’t confident in the 65-yard field goal in the conditions)
4Q, tied 17-17, 4th-and-2 at NO 46: Mayfield incomplete pass to Godwin (Saints drove for game-winning touchdown from there).
4Q, down 24-20, 4th-and-4 at TB 26: Mayfield 3-yard pass to Cade Otton for a turnover on downs to end game.
The last one is obvious, the one before halftime makes sense given the field position, I guess. But those three short ones at midfield, out of field goal range, and not in a bad situation on the scoreboard? Might have been able to argue they should punt there and put the rookie QB on a long field.
The Buccaneers and Panthers are both 7-6 with two matchups to come. This thing is far from over in the NFC South if the Bucs are going to keep playing with their food like this.
Commanders at Vikings: For Who, For What?
I’ll never understand what the Commanders were doing with Jayden Daniels in 2025. He had a few injuries as a rookie, but his elbow injury this year was not necessary as it happened after Dan Quinn kept him in a blowout against Seattle far too long.
Then given this team was 3-9 and hadn’t won since Week 5, what’s the point of even playing him again this year? He returned Sunday, he was rusty against a complex defense, and he re-injured his elbow on an interception return play. Now they’ll probably sit him for the rest of the year, but he should have been on the bench in the Seattle blowout and this elbow stuff never should have happened.
You have to protect your best asset. I’m not sure Quinn makes it to 2026 as the defense didn’t get any better despite that being the side they needed to fix desperately. Now the offense is messed up as well.
Seahawks at Falcons: Road Warriors Strike Again
This was actually a 6-6 game at halftime before the Seahawks blew it open in the third quarter with Rashid Shaheed scoring his first Seattle touchdown on a 100-yard kickoff return, then a Bijan Robinson fumble led to the first of two JSN touchdown catches as the rout was on.
The Seahawks (10-3) have been strong on the road all year, and now they get to face the Colts without Daniel Jones before their huge Thursday night rematch with the Rams in Week 16 when they’ll have a chance to take the NFC West lead.
Broncos at Raiders: The Worst Beat of the Year
Given how horrible the Broncos were on offense in the 10-7 win against this team last month, you have to give them credit here. Granted, 7 of the 24 points were a punt return touchdown, but they only had 7 possessions in this game and they gained 81, 41, 47, 91, and 90 yards on the five drives that weren’t limited by the clock and situation at the end of each half. They were sustaining drives with ease.
Some bettors just wish they would have gained 4 more yards on their last snap, because that left enough time for the Raiders, who trailed 24-14 with as little as 0:05 left, get into field goal range after an absurd penalty for trying to stay on top of a receiver who was down extended the game one more down. Then Pete Carroll decided to kick the 46-yard field goal, it was good with 0:00 left, and the Raiders (+7.5) covered the spread in a ridiculous 24-17 final.
I’ve had a pretty good spread week (8-5 ATS), but that was definitely the worst beat of the season on one of these.
Rams at Cardinals: Someone’s Winning in Fantasy on These Cardinal Blowouts
You just know there’s someone out there winning their fantasy league or taking down DFS contests (they still run those, right?) by stacking Jacoby Brissett and Michael Wilson (11/142/2 on Sunday). All that sweet volume and very little real-life NFL value because they either get blown out like they did here to the Rams (45-17), or they come up short in the fourth quarter of a one-score loss.
But this one was the blowout as the Rams led 45-10 at one point. Big bounce-back effort after last week’s loss in Carolina.
Titans at Browns: Shedeur Gets Some Stats, Cam Ward Gets the Win
This Toilet Bowl between the Titans (1-11) and Browns (3-9) actually proved to be far more interesting and nuanced than most Week 14 games. I can’t believe I’m about to write as many words on a Week 14 game between these teams as I am.
It was in theory a matchup of what were supposed to be the top two quarterbacks in the 2025 draft before Shedeur Sanders fell to the fifth round. I knew he’d try to shine in this one against the worst team in football, and to some extent, he did. Sanders finished with 364 passing yards, 3 touchdown passes, 1 touchdown run, 1 interception, and he led a comeback attempt in the final 5:00 that came up a hideous 2-point conversion try short of tying the game.
Meanwhile, Cam Ward only completed 14-of-28 passes for 117 yards, 2 touchdowns, and one pick against that tough Cleveland defense. But Myles Garrett, much like last week against the 49ers, got the lone sack for the defense.
It was also another game where the rest of the team sold out the defense with poor field position as the Titans had touchdown drives of 53, 38, and 8 yards as well as a 6-yard field goal drive without a first down gained.
But late in the game with the Titans up 31-17 thanks to those short fields (and a big day for Tony Pollard with 161 yards and two scores), we saw the shortcomings of the new down 14 strategy that I was just questioning last week. What happens if a team misses both conversions and is still down 2 late? That’s what happened to Cleveland in large part because they called a weird trick play for the final one instead of letting Sanders do something more conventional.
Let’s just note that Cleveland scored that second touchdown with 1:03 left. That left plenty of time to recover an onside kick and win the field goal as I said teams will do in the NFL as you can’t really time out when you get a touchdown. Then had the Browns made the first 2PC, if you score with 1:03 left, look at how much time that leaves the Titans to go get a game-winning field goal with the new kickoff rules and the improved range for kickers with the new k-balls. The same is true if they had only tied the game at 31.
So again, I understand why teams do the down 14 thing. I just don’t think it’s all that advantageous because of what it does to the game state. For one, I don’t like the prospects of having to convert a do-or-die 2PC at any point in the game, so I’d rather avoid that. Then if you get the first one and you’re down 6, that should trigger the opponent to try better to add to the lead or run out the clock than if they had the cushion of a 7-8 point lead. Then there’s the end-game scenario of taking a 1-point lead quite possibly with plenty of time for the other team to use 4-down football to set up a game-winning field goal.
Yeah, I’m just never going to be a big fan of that, and games like this make it look even less attractive to me. Going to overtime has never actually been less scary than it is now with the new rules there. There’s no real sudden death unless you majorly fuck up like a pick-six or safety on the first drive.
Alas, this was the Toilet Bowl, so it didn’t really matter what these teams did. Just a game with far more points – I believe the total closed at a season-low 33.0 – and intrigue than it ever deserved to have for Week 14.
Also, it’s going to make the Shedeur cult even crazier because he’s delivering the big plays they said he would in the NFL. Just don’t let them hear that some have been filled with YAC, or that he’s only done it against the two worst NFL teams this season (Vegas and Titans) and lost 26-8 to a San Francisco team that was missing its two best defenders.
Cults don’t like pesky facts like that.
Dolphins at Jets: The Streaks Continue
He didn’t have to do much in this one, but Tua Tagovailoa is now 7-0 as a starter against the Jets after the Dolphins quickly opened up a 21-0 lead and held on for the 34-10 win. The Jets were stuck playing UDFA rookie Brady Cook from Missouri after a Tyrod Taylor injury.
With the loss, the Jets (3-10) have been eliminated from the playoffs for the 15th season in a row, the longest active drought in the four major American sports leagues.
Next week: The Week 15 schedule is decent even if the island games are not. The Bucs need to pick things up at home against Atlanta on Thursday night. We’ll see a Baltimore-Cincy rematch from Thanksgiving that’s lost some luster with both losing Sunday. Chargers-Chiefs could be similar if the Chargers lose on Monday night. Bills-Patriots is the big one, and we’ll see if NE can win the AFC East or if Buffalo can try to repeat its 2021 success by coming back to beat them and eventually destroying them in the wild card.
Green Bay vs. Denver is decent for a non-conference game between possible No. 1 seeds. Lions at Rams might be more fun to watch for three quarters though. Colts should get rocked in Seattle. I’ll be writing this early while we’re stuck with Cowboys vs. Vikings on SNF. Steelers usually win at home on MNF, and Miami usually loses on the road under McDaniel to .500+ teams, but we’ll see how that one goes to end the week now that the Steelers will get props this week instead of being in that underdog role.
The NFL has become such a week-to-week league where you never know what’s going to happen anymore. Sometimes it can be explained, then other times it just can’t.
How does Justin Fields go from maybe his best game ever against the Steelers to maybe his worst game ever against a Buffalo team that was giving up over 10 yards per play to Baltimore last week? Then the Ravens were struggling to score anything on the Browns without short fields, and Derrick Henry was in fact shut down for the full game after nearly rushing for 200 last week.
You can say “division games are different” but how do the Giants go from 6 points in an NFC East game against Washington to 37 points in another NFC East game in Dallas? How do the Giants and Cowboys trade score after score in the fourth quarter after the Cowboys played a 3-0 second half against Philadelphia last week?
There aren’t many teams I’d be willing to write a glowing review about today as everything just seems so temporary and misleading. Played well today? Great, you’re probably just one week away from your next disappointment.
Green Bay, my Super Bowl pick in the NFC, does look pretty good though when you consider how Detroit scored at will Sunday and how they made Jayden Daniels look as ineffective as he’s ever been in a game. That’s a team to watch.
But with a good Monday night doubleheader to go, we had 10-of-14 games with a comeback opportunity this week, which is another high number as I could easily see both Monday night games adding to that.
First, I predicted the Eagles would win 23-20, so close enough. But if this is what the Eagles vs. Chiefs matchup looks like in 2025, I’m oddly more confident in the Chiefs prevailing in a Super Bowl rematch if it came down to that. At least they’d have Rashee Rice for that one, and maybe Xavier Worthy if his season isn’t destroyed by injury.
How did he get injured? Travis Kelce accidentally blew him up. Who made the biggest mistake Sunday for the Chiefs’ latest one-score loss? Kelce when he dropped a go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter and turned it into an interception, killing a marathon drive when it looked like the Chiefs were ready to take the lead.
It’s just been that kind of start to the season for the Chiefs. Even in a game they lose 20-17, their quarterback played well enough to score 27 points on nine drives, which would again be elite production despite the flaws around him. But when your kicker shanks an early field goal into the parking lot, and your trustworthy tight end is catching harder passes and letting the layup go to the other team, it’s that kind of day again.
It’s not like the Eagles showed much. Jalen Hurts only threw for 101 yards on 22 passes. He only rushed for 15 yards this week too with the Tush Push looking as pathetic as ever with the blatant false starts they’re getting away with on those plays. Something has to be done there.
Hurts is 2-0 at Arrowhead now and they’re two of the worst games he’s ever played in his career. Steve Spagnulo blitzes the hell out of him in these games, and he basically hits one lucky deep ball in the fourth quarter of both while willing Kelce to turn the ball over in the red zone in both games. I’m talking about the 2023 Monday night game, of course, and that one had the MVS dropped touchdown to boot.
But no such luck for the Chiefs this week. In fact, the ending was much like Week 1 in Brazil where the Chiefs cut a two-score deficit into a one-score deficit in the last 3:00, then the defense couldn’t get the stop it needed to get the ball back. So you lose a one-score game, and this is happening because it’s the defense on the field late whereas last year it was usually Mahomes on the field late with the ball in his hands where you want it.
Offensively, they’re close to making it work even with the missing receivers, but it’s just not sustainable as Mahomes again outrushed the rest of his teammates combined as the best plays they have in the playbook are not in the playbook. They’re just scrambles by Mahomes. You can’t last a season doing that. By the way, those scrambles are why he still had the third-highest QBR (79.3) this week before MNF.
Defensively, they were much better this week outside of letting Hurts hit that 28-yard pass to DeVonta Smith on 3rd-and-10 in the fourth quarter. Actually more of a “dagger” than “The Dagger” in the Super Bowl that was already decided as this one helped make it a two-score game.
But if you look around the league, it’s defenses forcing takeaways that are the cornerstone of success in today’s NFL. You get takeaways, you get extra possessions, and you usually get great field position for easy scores.
The Chiefs need that field position right now with the lack of weapons and offensive cohesion. Yet they’re not getting it as the Chiefs have just one takeaway in their last six games. That’s horrible.
The 2024 Chiefs won at unprecedented rates in close games and games without getting takeaways. That’s great, but it’s very hard to sustain that year over year. We’ve seen that play out twice already this season, and while losing to two Super Bowl contenders by one score is hardly the worst thing in the world, it gets serious if they lose to the Giants this week too with Baltimore and Detroit soon to come.
I don’t think the Chiefs got the Eagles’ best shot on Sunday, but I also don’t think the Eagles have much in the way of reinforcements who could make a difference in February if they did meet again in a third Super Bowl. What, is Dallas Goedert going to suddenly make Jalen Hurts throw the ball an average amount of yards that don’t’ look like someone’s GPA?
But the Chiefs are banking a lot on the returns of Worthy and Rice (and maybe rookie Jalen Royals, another injured wideout they’ve been missing). That’s fine, but there are serious issues with this team’s inability to create takeaways on defense, and the offense has to answer the question of how do you deal with Kelce’s legacy in what should be his final season when he’s sabotaged the offense in both games already?
But if we’re comparing Sunday to last February, these Chiefs can hang with these Eagles. I’m not sure the Eagles know who they really are right now offensively either. Neither team looked very Super Bowl-worthy in this game.
Giants at Cowboys: Barnburner in Jerry World
You mean to tell me all those times we wasted 3 f’n hours watching Giants-Cowboys in prime time, and the one time they throw them on at 1 PM it turns out to be the craziest game in the history of this rivalry?
This game was nuts as both teams scored at least 20 points with five lead changes and a game-tying 64-yard field goal in the fourth quarter alone. Russell Wilson threw for 450 yards (career high was 452 against Houston in 2017), showing he’s still got something in the tank and shouldn’t be benched yet. It also speaks back to the 345 passing yards per game the Giants averaged in the preseason. Malik Nabers looks the part of an All-Pro with 167 yards and two touchdowns, including a 48-yard bomb with 0:25 left that will be forgotten immediately because of all the other madness here.
George Pickens made his presence felt for Dallas with some key catches during the fireworks. Brandon Aubrey might be the new standard for kickers with his 64-yard kick to force overtime, and then his 46-yard winner in overtime also came with 0:00 left on the clock, and I read that’s the first time ever a kicker made a field goal with no time left in the fourth quarter and overtime of the same game. A little hard to believe.
But what a way for Dak Prescott to get his 14th-straight win against the Giants. We also saw the playoff overtime system used in the regular season for the first time. The Giants won the toss and elected to receive, putting the defense on the field first – something Kyle Shanahan didn’t do for the 49ers in Super bowl 58 against the Chiefs in the only other game we’ve seen this used for.
I think the Giants made the right decision there. Shockingly, it took five possessions in overtime before anyone scored, and the Dallas score came after Wilson’s big mistake of throwing up a pick on 2nd-and-14.
I’m still not sold Dallas is a contender this year, or that we won’t see Wilson get benched for the rookie. But sometimes you just have to enjoy two veteran quarterbacks, two of the oldest we have in this league, slinging it all over the field like that. Incredible stuff.
Broncos at Colts: Meaningful Football in Indy Again?
While the ratings for Eagles-Chiefs will likely be good and the NFL seemed to build the late-afternoon schedule in Week 2 to showcase that game, there was a good one going on in Indy between the Broncos and Colts, the Peyton Manning Bowl.
The lack of meaningful games played by the Colts since the 2014 AFC Championship Game has been a tough pill to swallow given how great the team was in the Manning early and those early Andrew Luck seasons. The Broncos probably feel the same way about their post-Manning era as they finally made the playoffs for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50 last year.
So, this was a rare big game for both of these franchises to get to 2-0. Bo Nix wanted to make up for a bad season opener, and he mostly did. Daniel Jones wanted to prove Week 1 was no fluke, and he did that too. The Colts haven’t punted yet this season, the type of offensive efficiency that’s usually only reserved for QBs having God Mode runs as this is only the fifth time it’s happened since World War II ended.
Back-to-back games without punting has only been done 5 times since WW2:
• 2003 Colts (1st two playoff games) • 2004 Steelers (Big Ben rookie year) • 2021 Bills (leading up to playoffs) • 2024 Commanders (Jayden) • 2025 Colts (Daniel Jones MVP year? 😱) https://t.co/KKZplq4bdE
Jones is playing legitimately good football with another 316 passing yards. Jonathan Taylor was incredible too with 215 yards from scrimmage in the game. The Denver defense was a paper tiger last year and it’s looking similar this year.
But I must say for as much as Colts coach Shane Steichen looks to be vindicated in benching Anthony Richardson for Jones, he’s very lucky the Colts stole this game as he didn’t do a good job closing it out. Denver got sloppy late with Nix throwing a pick in scoring range, then Wil Lutz missed a big 42-yard field goal with 3:15 left.
Down 28-26, the Colts only needed a field goal. But after Jones completed a pass to pick up a first down and burn Denver’s final timeout with 1:44 left, Steichen went with a super conservative strategy of three more runs before settling for a 60-yard field goal with a so-so kicker (Shrader) at best.
That’s crazy. I don’t care how good some kickers have gotten at long-range kicks, you have to keep throwing there and get closer. Sure enough, Shrader was short on the 60-yard field goal, but the Colts got bailed out with a leverage penalty on the Broncos. You be the judge:
This was the 51st time “Leverage” has been called since 2010 (3037 Total Games Played, 1.65% Call-Rate)
“Leverage” has only been mostly used in games where money is on the kicking team that needs the FG to cover some type of Spread/ML for Vegas.pic.twitter.com/4LPDoGYeAc
I see why they called it by the letter of the law. You can’t touch an opponent or teammate to propel yourself to try blocking a kick. But I’d like to see a call when it’s something more egregious as he barely gained any advantage here. That’s a tough 15 yards.
Given a second chance, Shrader was good from 45 yards and the Colts won 29-28 to move to 2-0. I would dock an ending like this for Steichen in a Coach of the Year race, but this is becoming quite the story with Jones playing like this.
Maybe MetLife Stadium is the curse and that’s why Geno Smith and Sam Darnold couldn’t wait to get away from there and do better. The Butt Fumble of 2012 (shout out Mark Sanchez) cursed all quarterbacks who start there, which is why Eli never won another playoff game for the Giants after it, and all the failed careers for these other Jets and Giants quarterbacks.
I guess I need some kind of supernatural explanation for how Indiana Jones is leading one of the most efficient offenses we’ve seen these last two weeks. Doesn’t feel real yet.
Seahawks at Steelers: Bonehead Play of the Year
It’s kind of incredible (and sad) how Aaron Rodgers joins a team and suddenly the defense is terrible, and the running game barely exists. But the Steelers had some issues on defense to end 2024. They weren’t supposed to carry over after they added some real veteran talent, but this thing is not working out for Mike Tomlin after 8 quarters.
But this was a very winnable game for the Steelers that broke Seattle’s way thanks to three huge plays:
In the third quarter, Rodgers’ 3rd-and-goal pass was deflected by a diving Calvin Austin into an interception in the end zone when the Steelers had a chance to take a 21-14 lead.
Rookie running back Kaleb Johnson made one of the dumbest plays in NFL history when he let the kickoff alone in the landing zone and the Seahawks were able to recover it for a touchdown to make it 24-14.
Even with the Seahawks running a give-up draw on 3rd-and-19, Kenneth Walker still hit them for a 19-yard touchdown run to make it 31-17 with 3:41 left.
Rodgers struggled in this game with some passes it’s hard to believe he threw because of how risk averse he usually is. But between that red-zone pick off the bad deflection and Johnson’s moronic move, the Steelers looked like toast here. It didn’t help that they made Cooper Kupp look like the 2021 version of Kupp, giving Sam Darnold another viable weapon outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is proving me wrong by looking like a legit WR1 with 8/103 this week.
The Seahawks are a little better than I was giving them credit for. Given the way Justin Fields couldn’t complete passes against a Buffalo defense that was bleeding yards last week, I only think the worst about where the Pittsburgh defense is headed this year. Rodgers with one good wideout is just not going to be able to lead many multi-score comebacks.
The Steelers are in the danger zone right now as I’m not really sure what they can hang their hat on. Rodgers can still make some gifted throws, but the consistency isn’t going to be there like the old days.
Jaguars at Bengals: Jake Browning to the Rescue Again
The early reports on Joe Burrow’s injury is turf toe and it could be serious, meaning three months out or even the rest of the season. Either way, we should expect to see more of backup Jake Browning, who again got the job done similar to a 2023 game in Jacksonville, which was the kind of high-scoring win in crunch time the Bengals almost never win with Burrow at quarterback.
Even with throwing 3 interceptions, Browning has shown he can bounce back and give his talented receivers chances to make plays. Even Tinsley caught a one-handed touchdown from Browning, so it’s not just Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, who also scored Sunday in the Bengals’ 31-27 comeback win.
But I also think it’s funny that a year ago, Bengals fans complained about a 4th-and-16 defensive pass interference penalty in Kansas City that cost them a game in Week 2. It was the right call, mind you, but they weren’t letting that one go all season.
This time, the Bengals got a very questionable DPI flag go their way on a 4th-and-5 with 1:54 left, basically the ballgame again, when Travis Hunter was flagged for what looked like pretty good defense. He was engaged with the receiver who also made contact to Hunter’s face, and Hunter did get his head turned around and swatted at the ball. I wouldn’t want a flag here on either side.
Hunter played 43 snaps on defense (42 on offense), so he had a much bigger role this week as a dual threat. However, it sucks that his first high-profile defensive snap is a shady penalty that arguably decided the game.
But you have to stop the backup quarterback, and the Jaguars couldn’t do it just as they couldn’t stop Browning in 2023 either. He scored on a sneak touchdown with 18 seconds left, not really leaving the offense enough time to answer it.
Trevor Lawrence had an uneven game and missed several opportunities to put more points on the board and to convert late on a 4th-and-5 at the Cincinnati 7 with 3:42 left. That decision shows how the NFL has made progress with aggressive coaching as Liam Coen wasn’t going to settle for a 6-point lead and be in the same position of giving up the go-ahead touchdown (that the Bengals absolutely knew they needed) in the final 20 seconds.
In fact, it’s better to be up 3 there late as opposed to 6 as the offense will hopefully stay conservative on fourth down and go for the tying field goal. But the Bengals ended up getting the winning touchdown anyway.
Tough loss for the Jaguars, and we’ll just have to see what the news is on Burrow. But I think people shouldn’t sell the drop-off to Browing short. If he can win the clutch games Burrow couldn’t, what’s the real issue? The defense remained opportunistic this week with the timely stops of Lawrence too, so they’ll need to keep that up.
This injury all but tanks any Burrow for MVP talk, but hopefully he gets better news and can return eventually this season. But I’d be lying if I wasn’t looking forward to getting more data points on how Browning does in this offense and in moments like this.
Falcons at Vikings: Not the Baby LOAT
When people say it’s so easy to play quarterback now, show them this game. That didn’t look like much fun for J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix, two young quarterbacks the NFL apparently wanted to showcase in this prime-time slot instead of the Super Bowl rematch in Week 2.
These defenses had these quarterbacks in hell, especially the revamped pass rush for the Falcons that already had a solid debut in Week 1. Every chance I had to write about the Falcons this offseason, I kept mentioning those two first-round rushers and veteran Leonard Floyd, and all three of them were in on the 6 sacks McCarthy took in this 22-6 grind.
Similar to Monday night for McCarthy without the short fields helping him score late, I’m just not that impressed with his arm. The passes look weak to me as if he was coming off a shoulder or elbow injury instead of a meniscus. It’s weird.
But while it felt like another game he could steal in the fourth quarter thanks to his defense keeping him in it at 12-6, think again. Even after McCarthy got some great field position (own 48) to start his rally attempt, the Falcons closed that down immediately with a strip-sack that led to a 54-yard field goal for new kicker Parker Romo, who delivered big all night.
Down 15-6, McCarthy threw incomplete on a 3rd-and-1 to a wide-open receiver deep. Shockingly, Kevin O’Connell had his team punt with 9:52 left and the team still down two scores on a night it struggled to slow down the running game as Bijan Robinson had a huge game.
I think it’s the worst punt of this young season by any coach. Don’t call the deep shot on 3rd-and-1 if you’re just going to punt there. Then why wouldn’t you just go for it? If you can’t get a yard, how do you expect to score twice the rest of the game? If you don’t get it, you at least give up a short field that shouldn’t take much time off the clock.
But the worst-case scenario happened. The Vikings did their sissy punt, and the Falcons used up 6:17 of game clock to add a touchdown to make it 22-6 with 3:22 left. Game over, basically.
McCarthy’s rotten night ended so poorly that he threw up a pick expecting to get an offsides penalty but instead it was for an illegal shift on the Vikings, so the interception stood. Rough.
I’m feeling pretty good about Robinson and the Atlanta pass rush going forward. With the Vikings, I liked the under 8.5 wins all offseason for this team as I was not buying McCarthy until he proved he could play. His defense is going to keep him in games and he could end up playing well by season’s end, but for right now, he doesn’t know what he’s doing and the Vikings are going to continue to struggle.
He doesn’t look like he’s going to be the Baby LOAT from Michigan (new Tom Brady) after all.
Bears at Lions: They Just Needed Ben Johnson Back in the Building
Maybe not 52-21, but this more or less was the outcome I expected in this one. The Lions show all is well with the offense without Ben Johnson, they take advantage of the Bears coming off a Monday night stinker, and Caleb Williams throws too many inaccurate passes.
But Jared Goff must have been really pissed about that fake “0-19 without McVay/Johnson” stat as he went off for 334 yards and 5 touchdown passes in this one. As many touchdown passes as incompletions.
If you took a poll of how Bears fans felt around the third quarter of Monday night’s game and today, that would probably be a very dramatic swing. They are down bad in many areas.
But the Lions will need to show something in Baltimore next week after a no-show in Green Bay for Week 1 against elite competition.
Bills at Jets: The Real Justin Fields Returns
See, that’s why I didn’t want to overreact to Justin Fields in Week 1, because I know what he’s been in the NFL and that’s not good enough to be a franchise quarterback. In this game, he played into the fourth quarter before a concussion knocked him out, and he still finished 3-of-11 for 27 yards passing.
What the hell is that? Tyrod Taylor came in and immediately completed 3 passes. Mitch Trubisky had to come into the game after Josh Allen injured his nose, and he completed a 32-yard pass to finish with more passing yards than Fields. Just ridiculous stuff.
But it was a weird Josh Allen game as he had no touchdowns of any sort and had a few bail-out penalties on third downs to extend early drives for points. The Jets never stood much of a chance, and James Cook was the star with 132 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns in an easy 30-10 win.
And yes, the Bills won the turnover battle again, had no turnovers again, and Cook’s fumble was recovered by the Bills again. They seemingly can’t be stopped with these turnover numbers.
Browns at Ravens: Not the Happiest Return for Joe Flacco
Joe Flacco made his return to Baltimore for the first time since losing his job to Lamar Jackson in 2018. The Browns were a 12.5-point underdog by kickoff, which is a pretty huge line for a Week 2 division game.
But it was only a 10-3 lead at halftime for Baltimore after the Browns shut down Derrick Henry (11 carries for 23 yards in the entire game) and limited the big plays with nothing over 15 yards in the first two quarters. Myles Garrett (1.5 sacks) is having a huge start to his 2025 season, and his third-down sack of Lamar Jackson forced the Ravens to settle for a field goal and 13-3 lead early in the third quarter.
However, that’s when the game took a turn in Baltimore’s blowout favor as a Flacco pass was picked off by Nate Wiggins, who returned it to the Cleveland 5, setting up another short field for a Baltimore offense that already had a 24-yard touchdown drive thanks to a blocked punt in the first half. The Ravens finished that for a touchdown and 20-3 lead, then later added a Flacco fumble return for a touchdown and another short-field touchdown to blow things open at 41-10.
Rookie Dillon Gabriel relieved Flacco instead of Shedeur Sanders, so let the talk there begin. The Browns scored a garbage time touchdown and lost 41-17.
Cleveland just gave up way too many short fields to make things easier on the Ravens on a day they didn’t bring their A game one week after the Buffalo choke. Should be a much better test next Monday night against a Detroit team that just scored 52 points.
Patriots at Dolphins: Jock (Mike Vrabel) Stuffs Nerdboy (Mike McDaniel) in Locker
What a week for Miami coach Mike McDaniel. Rex Ryan calls you “nerdboy” on TV, then you are left rambling in your post-game speech after the latest 33-27 loss to the Patriots at home to fall to 0-2.
Basically, this Miami defense is trash, and Tua Tagovailoa’s decision making just seems impaired. Maybe it’s too many concussions but he’s just not seeing things well like on his big interception in a 30-27 game with 2:12 left.
There was a surreal moment where the Dolphins returned a punt 74 yards for a touchdown to take a 27-23 lead, then the Patriots immediately answered with Antonio Gibson returning the ensuing kickoff 90 yards for what is technically a game-winning non-offensive touchdown. Drake Maye, who played well, has his first win in a game he finished where the opponent scored more than 3 points, though it did happen on that Gibson return.
But would you have trusted Miami to stop them anyway? Just a bad football team right now and it’s a joke we have to watch them Thursday night against the team they almost never beat (Buffalo).
49ers at Saints: Return of the Mac
For a game with Mac Jones and Spencer Rattler at quarterback, they actually put on one of the best passing shows of the day with both throwing for over 200 yards and 3 touchdowns. That’s something we almost never see in the NFL anymore. Jones didn’t even have George Kittle or Brandon Aiyuk available to him.
But the good news is Jones didn’t have to win the game in the fourth quarter, something he’s horrific at. However, my prediction of a classic Kyle Shanahan blown lead and failed game-winning drive without his QB1 was so close to coming true. The 49ers were up 26-14, but there was Rattler with the ball in a 26-21 game with 2:40 and 94 yards to go for the lead.
The long field was unfortunate as the Saints must not have believed they could mix a run in there on 3rd or 4th-and-1 with the clock racing to the final minute. On 4th-and-1 at his own 42, Rattler was sacked by Bryce Huff and coughed up the ball, ending the threat.
It was another very respectable effort from Rattler against a superior opponent, but he’s gotta finish one of these drives eventually. Now 0-5 at game-winning drives.
Rams at Titans: Patience with Cam Ward
Well, two games in, and it doesn’t really look like Cam Ward is going to have that C.J. Stroud/Jayden Daniels type of rookie season. There were some flashes of brilliance on Sunday as he had another one-score game in the fourth quarter with an opponent favored to be a playoff team, but he’s going to have to work on his pocket presence and sacks after 5 more takedowns this week.
It was the two long sacks last week that knocked them out of field goal range against Denver that were killer. This week, he’s in a 20-16 game and gets a strip-sack by that talented front seven of the Rams, who turned that turnover into a 21-yard touchdown drive with Davante Adams scoring for his new team. Just like that it’s 27-16, and the Titans don’t have the firepower to handle that.
Panthers at Cardinals: The NFC West Stays Perfect (Barely)
The Cardinals, Rams, and 49ers are all 2-0. The Seahawks are 1-0 when they’re not playing one of their division rivals. The whole NFC West is still undefeated outside of the division going into Week 3, but the Cardinals have been playing it rather loosely, letting some bad teams hang around at the end.
I thought Bryce Young was on his way to getting benched again after giving up a fumble touchdown three snaps into the game and the Panthers were still trailing 27-9 with 10:32 left in the game.
But to his credit, Young mounted a comeback and got some big breaks along the way. After scoring a second touchdown in the quarter, the Panthers tried the onside kick with 1:58 left and actually recovered it – a play that’s dipped to a 5% success rate since last year with the new rules You lucky if you get one recovery in your career, so Young couldn’t waste it in a 27-22 game that was suddenly very winnable.
Then he even got another brutal sack that lost 29 yards on fourth down overturned by a defensive holding penalty, so there’s a second huge break after the 2:00 warning. A third break was the roughing the passer to negate a 2nd-and-17 incompletion. Was Arizona really going to blow an 18-point lead in basically half a quarter of work?
But then it all went south with a grounding penalty on Young, and suddenly it’s 2nd-and-20. Then it’s 4th-and-15, and there’s Calais Campbell for the game-clinching sack with 0:26 left. Crisis averted for Arizona after a close call with the Saints last week.
I’m not a believer yet in this team, but if they get to play Mac Jones next week instead of Brock Purdy, and with the Rams in Philly, the Cardinals could be 3-0 an in first place this time next week.
Next week: Just a horrible choice to put the Dolphins in prime time, and it will come with the fawning over Buffalo to boot. Good game to get some work done early that night. Sunday has Rams-Eagles playoff rematch early on, then I think Broncos-Chargers is where my interest lies at 4:00. Chiefs-Giants on SNF is suddenly much more interesting with the teams trying to avoid 0-3 starts. Saved the best for last with Lions at Ravens on MNF.
I’m starting my 15th season covering the NFL by running late in trying to push this out before kickoff in Philadelphia. As I end up doing more offseason articles each year, the seven months of repeating certain things gets tiresome, and you just want to get the new season started.
I usually come up with an overall theme for these seasons, but I don’t really have one for 2025. Just sit back and enjoy the ride. That’s the theme. So much about the world has gone or is going to shit, that you have to find comfort in the little things that make you happy.
Even though I had a 2024 prediction that Josh Allen would win MVP and the Chiefs would lose the Super Bowl in their three-peat bid, it wasn’t always that fun to watch unfold. I think I let too many ridiculous people on Twitter get to me about these topics, including that horseshit about the refs helping the Chiefs win games. It was also dark times late in the season with my uncle and a close family friend dying two months apart. Stress eating got the best of me.
But as soon as that Super Bowl blowout ended, I felt this huge relief. I slept like a baby that week, I started shedding pounds again, and now I’ve spent the summer walking around the house having to hold my shorts up as nothing wants to fit anymore. I’m at my lowest weight since high school.
The three-peat? Like Zed, it’s dead. If the Eagles repeat, what do I care? We already turned the MVP into a charity case for Allen, so what’s it matter if they do it for Joe Burrow next? I’ll make the futures bet today to take advantage of that nonsense. What if the Ravens or Bills finally break through and make the Super Bowl? GOOD. I’m sick and tired of writing every offseason about the Five-Year Rule and when they’re going to get over the hump. I wish one of them would just do it already (hint hint), and you know which one I’d prefer at this point – shocking as it is.
Spending three hours on Sundays watching Aaron Rodgers quarterback my childhood team should be a hoot. The quarterback I perfectly labeled 14 years ago (just a few months into my writing career) a front-runner extraordinaire who would be lucky to win another Super Bowl. I’m so numb to the Steelers having a non-losing record and doing squat in the playoffs that nothing could phase me this year.
I’m just going to try to enjoy it, and part of that has already started by blocking some of the most annoying people I’ve come across on Twitter in 14 years. Time is precious, and arguing with these people is a waste of it. Shout out to #AlwaysWrongGuy for being a punching bag I still enjoy getting my hits into. But those Brdy cultists – they know who they are – can login to their burners because I’m in a blocking mood right now.
It took me a long time to come up with my Super Bowl pick this year. I actually dropped a futures bet on it around August 12 on BetRivers, and the odds have already gone from +4575 to +3000. Almost like a certain trade made that happen.
But last year, I ended a 3-year drought of getting all the Super Bowl teams wrong. I even finally got the right game outcome with the Chiefs losing, but it was Green Bay winning. Whoops. Won’t make that mistake again (hint hint).
But I still have a standard I hold myself to, and I wouldn’t be meeting it if I didn’t make this the only place I post my final thoughts and final record predictions for all 32 teams along with my narrative for the postseason.
But if you need more detail about your team or curious about other teams – I recommend the Chiefs, Ravens, Packers, Vikings, Bills, Eagles, and Commanders – then be sure to click the links and read those previews at 365Scores. They’re all 2,500-6,500 words each.
Note: Some of the over/under picks in these articles were subject to change as I only made my final record predictions Thursday morning after going through the schedule. My final, official picks are as presented below.
AFC WEST
1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
I’ve shown how the 2024 Chiefs were a copy of 2020, right down to winning a record number of close games, the starters losing one time going into the Super Bowl, beating Buffalo in the AFC-CG, and playing musical chairs with their OL before getting dominated in the Super Bowl.
Does that mean 2021 Chiefs = 2025 Chiefs? A 3-4 start followed by a hot finish to get to 12-5 and another AFC-CG. I do think the schedule is ridiculously frontloaded with four major Super Bowl contenders in the first six games, the games they’ll have to play without Rashee Rice, who should take over as the leading receiver this year.
But it’s the Chiefs. You know they’re going to be in the mix late in the year, and the offense should perk up with Josh Simmons at left tackle. The defense may take a step back, and that could be the difference in January too. But it’s still up to a Baltimore or Buffalo to make the decisive play in the playoffs and eliminate this team.
Maybe even before the AFC-CG this year…They can’t go to every Super Bowl, right?
2. Denver Broncos (11-6)
I’m sold on Bo Nix having a legit shot to be a problem (positively) under Sean Payton as he’s giving him a talented, balanced roster the likes of which he almost never did for Drew Brees all those years. That’s a shame.
But Nix played well against the Chiefs and would have won in Arrowhead if not for a blocked 35-yard field goal. I still have the Chiefs winning the division, but an 11-6 finish for Denver is going to be good enough for a No. 5 seed most likely.
3. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8)
I think the Chargers can beat the Chiefs in Brazil and that might be the highlight of their season. I still see them losing pivotal games for tie-breakers like Week 10 against the Steelers (SNF) and Week 18 in Denver. I love Ladd McConkey but still not a fan of the other receivers around Justin Herbert, who needs to be more aggressive and assertive this year. No one cares about those 3 INTs if you throw 4 in a playoff game.
But I think the Rashawn Slater injury is a big one as it’s going to hurt the potential the running game had with Joe Alt sliding to LT.
4. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11)
They should be more competitive and fun to watch with Pete Carroll, Geno Smith, Chip Kelly, and Ashton Jeanty in town. But it’s a numbers game and the other three AFC West teams are just better. Carroll hasn’t led a top 10 D since 2016, and there were diminishing returns with him and Geno in Seattle.
NFC WEST
1. San Francisco 49ers (11-6)
The 49ers have this incredible streak where they’ve gone 22 straight seasons (since 2003) where they’ve either missed the playoffs with a non-losing record (15 times) or they got to the NFC-CG or better (7 times).
I think that streak can continue as all 4 teams are capable of winning this NFC West. But I’m still siding with the 49ers as they can’t be more injured than 2024 (try as they might), I believe in Brock Purdy, and the tiebreaker for me is they play a last-place schedule.
What does that mean in comparison to the Rams’ 1st-place schedule? It means the 49ers get to play the Browns, Giants, and Bears while the Rams have to play the Ravens, Eagles, and Lions.
That’ll do, pig.
2. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
When I wrote the Rams preview early on I was really hyped about this team, thinking it can match the Eagles’ feat (2-1 in the Super Bowl over the last 8 years). You take Sean McVay and Stafford, add Davante Adams, and the front seven had 16 sacks in the playoffs and Jared Verse could ascend to the next tier in Year 2. A Super Bowl is realistic.
Then Stafford’s disc issue came up, he’s 37, and you get worried. Throw in that schedule difference I just talked about with the 49ers getting a huge boost, and I cautiously slide the Rams into second place with 10 wins.
3. Arizona Cardinals (8-9)
I wanted to find another win for this team but ended up giving them the same record as last year. Honestly, the schedule works out to where it should be a good start before the inevitable Kyler Murray nosedive late in the year. Is there a new Call of Duty coming out? That’d just cement missing the playoffs for me.
I do like the prospects of Marvin Harrison Jr. reminding us why he was WR1 in a loaded WR draft though.
4. Seattle Seahawks (7-10)
My gut says Sam Darnold plays better than he did in 2018-23 but noticeably worse than last year with the Vikings. Pretty fair. He has a worse situation all around and the Seahawks have downgraded at wide receiver.
AFC EAST
1. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
The Bills really have to take advantage of a schedule that worked out to where they get to face the Ravens, Chiefs, Eagles, Bengals, and Buccaneers in Buffalo where they were 10-0 last year. Great path to a No. 1 seed, which I think they get.
But are they really that much better this year? They added some ex-Chargers (Josh Palmer, Joey Bosa), and beyond trying to get better play out of Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, they’re hoping they can make Tre’Davious White a thing again in 2025. That’s not an impressive haul for the eternal bridesmaid of the AFC.
And don’t forget the turnover regression I’ve covered over and over. In fact, don’t be surprised if the Bills do something Sunday night against Baltimore than they never did in 2024 – lose a fumble by someone other than Josh Allen.
2. New England Patriots (8-9)
I think this team surprised people by being favored in roughly 11 games when the earliest lines came out. The schedule is favorable, Stefon Diggs should help, but I’m going to be cautious as I need to see Drake Maye succeed in various ways. Remember, he never finished a start he won where the Patriots allowed more than 3 points last year.
3. New York Jets (5-12)
My issue with Robert Saleh when the Jets hired him was that he basically had one good year as a defensive coordinator in SF. Aaron Glenn is the same way now from Detroit. But the bigger issue is pairing him with Justin Fields, a quarterback who is 0-22 when his opponent scores more than 20 points and 2-18 at 4QC opportunities.
He is not a franchise quarterback.
4. Miami Dolphins (4-13)
They probably won’t be this bad, but they were the sacrifice I was constantly willing to make to make sure the other 31 teams had the records they did. Hell, the sportsbooks have Mike McDaniel with better than even odds to be the first coach fired just like Miami did to Tony Sparano and Joe Philbin early in their fourth seasons.
On the bright side, just another day closer to death, Mike.
NFC EAST
1. Philadelphia Eagles (13-4)
They absolutely have a shot to repeat by retaining their super talented offensive core and having a ton of young defenders that can be solid to great. However, I still think Saquon Barkley’s long runs dry up this year and the passing game has to do more. The defense will miss the veterans and depth they lost too. But still a team that can get it done and end that absurd streak of no repeat winner in the NFC East since 2004.
Circle the Week 10 game in Green Bay. Potential No. 1 seed battle on MNF.
2. Washington Commanders (10-7)
I think Jayden Daniels is the next big thing at QB, but I was cautious to not go overboard after it didn’t work with C.J. Stroud and Houston last year. But you can see a path to how Daniels could ascend to MVP and win the NFC East and get to the Super Bowl in Year 2 a la 1984 Dan Marino, 2005 Ben Roethlisberger, and 2013 Russell Wilson.
Still, I can’t help but acknowledge the schedule will be much tougher, Kliff’s offense won’t surprise teams this year the way it did last year, and they didn’t do enough defensively in my book.
But Daniels is a huge MVP contender. He should have finished much higher in 2024 for it too if people actually cared about the value of making the god damn Washington NFL franchise relevant again.
I thought that was impossible in the salary cap era.
3. Dallas Cowboys (7-10)
I guess in the end I soured on my 8-9 win prediction and could only repeat 7-10 for Dallas with a healthy Dak and the best WR2 (George Pickens) he’s had since 2021. But Brian Schottenheimer Jr. is unproven in this spot, and the Micah Parsons trade was not good at all for this team’s 2025 prospects.
Are you having a good time now, Jerry? You did it, you did it, baby, you did it!
4. New York Giants (6-11)
They were the only team I talked about the preseason for since they were so prolific with 345 net passing yards per game and over 36 points. Sure, that’s likely going to lead to the ugliest first quarter of offense of any team this Sunday, but one could dream Brian Daboll has figured things out with his job on the line, right?
But a Russ redemption season would be cool, and Jaxson Dart had an impressive preseason. Might see him soon enough as that schedule is brutal.
AFC SOUTH
1. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7)
I picked Liam Coen for Coach of the Year with the expectation he’ll get a career year out of Trevor Lawrence with his best weapons yet, and they’ll manage Travis Hunter well to take back this division.
Sure, it could be a disaster too from the guy who started his presser with “Duuuuvallll” like some kind of Willy Wonka Football Factory nerd. But trust the guy knows what he’s doing offensively.
2. Houston Texans (9-8)
They didn’t make the leap last year as I expected, and I think the roster is all over the place offensively aside from Stroud to Nico Collins. I think they take a step back.
3. Tennessee Titans (5-12)
The most optimistic thought is Cam Ward, a very disrespected No. 1 pick, does his best C.J. Stroud (2023) and Jayden Daniels (2024) and takes this team to the playoffs. But I think there’s still a lot of work to be done here as Brian Callahan wasn’t showing much last year.
4. Indianapolis Colts (5-12)
Fvcking hell. How did this team get here? I temporarily can’t even suggest Arch Manning is the answer after Week 1. But the Colts can’t keep starting a different washed-up quarterback every year since Andrew Luck retired.
The sad part is the roster isn’t half bad outside of the most important position.
NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta Falcons (10-7)
This didn’t work last year, but here we go again. I think Michael Penix Jr. opens up the offense, Bijan Robinson wins OPOY, and we look at them with Drake London as the new triplets. Raheem Morris got several pass rushers in the draft and free agency, so he should be better on that side of the ball.
It’s just another division where I’m looking for a change after Tampa Bay’s grip hasn’t been that strong. They had to survive an Atlanta sweep last year. But if Penix bombs in Week 1 against the Bucs, I’ll already be regretting this pick.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
They’re obviously a talented team, but they lost Liam Coen, Baker still had a lot of turnovers with him last year, and they have some injuries this year like Chris Godwin. Mike Evans isn’t getting any younger either. They’re the weakest team in the 32-team era to win 4 straight division titles, so I think the streak ends here.
3. Carolina Panthers (7-10)
I’m still not sold on Bryce Young (or Dave Canales), hence a cautious 7-10 since they did play the Chiefs and Eagles (oh, Leggette would catch that shit if it was baked in raccoon flavoring) well last year.
4. New Orleans Saints (3-14)
Pour one out for Kellen Moore, walking into the worst quarterback battle in the NFC. It says everything that the biggest salary cap hit on this team is Tayson Hill this year.
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
I probably could have found a way to give them another win instead of going 12-5 again. But that would mess with my Week 1 prediction and how I wanted Buffalo to get the No. 1 seed, and how I didn’t want any team with 14 wins in the AFC. So, 12-5 it is.
But they should be stronger defensively after that slow start, they should have Zay Flowers for the playoffs this time around, and that offense is obviously hard to stop with Lamar and Henry. Just need to find a way to protect the ball in January and take it away on defense for a change.
Just hope the rookie kicker replacing the asshole who’s disgraced his GOAT legacy doesn’t become the guy who throws the season for a loop. Because it’s always something in Baltimore in the playoffs.
2. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
I picked Joe Burrow to win MVP. Not because I think he’ll improve on last year’s stats and production. But because I think the Bengals will manage the turnover battle better, he’ll have a couple of clutch wins for a change, and even a 10-7 record/wild card is enough for those guys like Dan Orlovsky, Emmanuel Acho, and Chris Simms to give him the MVP.
They were soft launching it last year when he finished fourth in voting despite missing the playoffs. But I don’t think the defense is improved enough to go on a deep run to another Super Bowl or AFC-CG.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
It would be something if the arrival of Aaron Rodgers led to Mike Tomlin’s first losing season. I was all for the 8-9 finish for months. But then the Steelers kept adding all these veterans like Darius Slay, Jalen Ramsey, Jonnu Smith, and the draft seemed solid with Derrick Harmon.
This really could be the best defense Rodgers has played with since 2010. But then I’m reminded that this sounds like what I said about him with the Jets in 2023 and 2024 before he had another one of his worst seasons just like in 2022 when he missed the playoffs in Green Bay.
I’m not optimistic about this team doing a thing in January, but I find myself still picking 10 wins for them. It’s Tomlin’s thing at this point.
4. Cleveland Browns (4-13)
I think Kevin Stefanski gets fired after he wants to stick with Joe Flacco and the fans and ownership force him to play Shedeur Sanders after Dillon Gabriel magically gets injured during the season. Just a messy situation and you already see why most teams wanted nothing to do with the headache over a third-string quarterback.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers (13-4)
Wow, the Green Bay Packers really drafted a first-round WR (Matthew Golden) and traded big capital for an elite pass rusher (Micah Parsons). Where was that in the 2010s when Aaron Rodgers was trying to win another Super Bowl?
But you saw the stat. Favre and Rodgers won their Super Bowl in their age-27 season. Love is 27 this year. He played like an MVP in the second half of 2023 and injuries kept throwing him off a little in 2024. I think he has his most complete season in 2025 and this team’s stability on top of adding two elite talents puts them over the top for one of the most consistent winning coaches we have today.
2. Detroit Lions (10-7)
It’s not just that they lost both coordinators, but they also lost some interior linemen, and 15-win teams usually regress by 4-5 wins anyway. Detroit is still good and Dan Campbell will still be aggressive. But I see Goff taking a step back after a career year and the defense is still too dependent on Aidan Hutchinson.
3. Chicago Bears (8-9)
I love what Ben Johnson was selling this offseason, but I think the stacked division prevents him from winning Coach of the Year as you need to make the playoffs for that. But he’d be a slam dunk in the South divisions.
4. Minnesota Vikings (7-10)
Let’s make one thing very clear. I don’t “hate” J.J. McCarthy. I have no reason to (yet). I just hate that I don’t have information on him going into Year 2, and with the way Kevin O’Connell has gone from 13 wins (with a negative scoring differential) to 7-10 back up to 14-3 with Sam Darnold, he’s too volatile for my liking.
Throw in McCarthy being a wild card and I’m just going to keep it at 7-10/no playoffs for what is a playoff-ready roster. If I’m wrong, then so be it. I’ll judge McCarthy on merit. But for now, until he proves himself, I just trust the teams with LaFleur/Love, McVay/Stafford, and Jayden Daniels more.
And someone has to win the South.
PLAYOFFS
Most teams were coming out exactly the way I hoped for when getting to their win count. Took some adjustments as always, and the Vikings were the team I had to find wins for the most as apparently I got too sour on them. I really did stick to some of my 2024 gut picks that didn’t pan out, so maybe I was just a year early. Doubling down for sure on some of these.
In the end, I had four new playoff teams, which still feels low. Three of them are division winners.
AFC
1. Buffalo (13-4)
2. Kansas City (12-5)
3. Baltimore (12-5)
4. Jacksonville (10-7)
5. Denver (11-6)
6. Cincinnati (10-7)
7. Pittsburgh (10-7)
Believe it or not, we finally get that Aaron Rodgers vs. Patrick Mahomes game, and it ends up being the final game of Rodgers’ career as he retires after the loss. The Ravens finish 2-1 against the Bengals and send them packing. The Broncos-Jaguars meet in the Bill O’Brien Saturday Invitational, and the winner loses in Buffalo.
That leaves the 3 teams you expect. I don’t love Baltimore in that No. 3 position, but if you’re going to get over the hump like the 2012 team did, why not go big? That team beat Manning and Brady on the road to get to the Super Bowl. The Baltimore defense finally gives Lamar a big turnover in January in Kansas City, leading to a game-winning field goal by the rookie kicker. The Ravens then complete the season sweep of Buffalo, beating them in the first and last game of the season.
NFC
1. Green Bay (13-4)
2. Philadelphia (13-4)
3. San Francisco (11-6)
4. Atlanta (10-7)
5. Washington (10-7)
6. LA Rams (10-7)
7. Detroit (10-7)
The Lions put up a fight in Philly but fall short. Jayden Daniels educates the Falcons about the playoffs in Atlanta. 49ers-Rams could go either way, but I think Shanahan gets the win over McVay this time.
While Daniels eyes another road upset of a No. 1 seed, Parsons earns his extension with a huge play that leads to a Green Bay win. The 49ers have to keep their streak alive (no playoffs or NFC-CG), so they end Philly’s repeat bid after Brock Purdy gets his revenge for the elbow injury three years ago. They’re one game away from playing the Super Bowl at Levi’s.
That sets up another Packers vs. 49ers clash in the playoffs, and it’s one of the biggest yet. Shanahan blows a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter (redundant) as Jordan Love establishes himself as the comeback QB that neither Favre nor Rodgers ever was.
SUPER BOWL LX
It’s Ravens vs. Packers in February. Something fresh with neither team getting there since 2010 and 2012 respectively. All the hype is about Lamar owning the NFC in his career and how it’s his time now.
But in some weird way, Jerry Jones gets the last laugh as the Ravens kill Green Bay with Derrick Henry on the ground on a night where Lamar is solid but doesn’t throw more than 20 passes. The narrative flips to how they ended up missing Kenny Clark’s run defense and Parsons was a no-show for the big one.
Down 27-20 late, Jordan Love is intercepted by Jaire Alexander, the former Packer turned Raven. Baltimore ends the 75-year run the Five-Year Rule had as Jackson and Harbaugh finally make it happen in Year 8 together.
I was going to say I could definitely live with this season outcome, then I realized this will make TruthBearer, the Lamar superfan on Twitter, be the next person I have to block.
At least I know I provided one happy ending today.
In picking NFL games weekly for over 20 years, I still long for the week where I go 16-0. I’ve been 15-1 before, and if the Lions take care of the 49ers Monday night, then Week 17 will be a 15-1 week too.
But those god damn Colts just had to screw it up with the upset of the week against the lowest-scoring team in the league. So, I’ll wait for another chance to go 16-0, and this would have been a great week as favorites absolutely killed it with a 14-1 record so far.
Most of the games weren’t even that competitive with only six games featuring a comeback opportunity, and we didn’t have a single fourth-quarter lead change in the NFL from the time Sam Darnold threw that touchdown to Justin Jefferson in Seattle last week up until the Falcons-Commanders game tonight.
It’s been a long week, and I’m not even going to bother covering Wednesday and Thursday’s games here. Let’s get to it.
Falcons at Commanders: Welcome to the Salary Cap Era, Washington
One of my favorite annual stats to cite is no longer true. When I had to write about the Washington franchise, I always pointed out how this is the only NFL team that hasn’t had an 11-win season in the salary cap era since 1994. Every other team’s had multiple 11-win seasons in that time.
Well, the Commanders represent a new era for the franchise, Daniel Snyder is no longer the owner, and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is their savior. Daniels was again historic as a dual-threat on the night in a comeback win against Atlanta, and the Commanders are 11-5 and heading to the playoffs behind the player I think is the MVP of the league this year.
It wasn’t a great start as the Falcons led 17-7, but the Commanders were hurting themselves with a lot of offensive holding penalties, a penalty these refs were calling very tight all night and sometimes on both teams.
But the Commanders controlled the clock in the second half, and Daniels was almost perfect down the stretch. He led a long go-ahead touchdown drive to start the fourth quarter, he had a touchdown pass to put them up 11 negated by another holding penalty, and then after Michael Penix Jr. led a clutch game-tying touchdown drive by converting on multiple 4th-and-longs, Daniels again threw a strike on 3rd-and-10 deep to a streaking receiver.
But the pass was dropped, and the Commanders went three-and-out in the final minute of a tied game. That looked like it might cost them, but the Falcons badly mismanaged their two timeouts by wasting time and not getting closer for their new kicker, Riley Patterson. After getting a DPI penalty, they tried a 56-yard field goal that was straight enough but short, so we went to overtime.
The Commanders won the toss and Daniels in his first overtime game did not give Atlanta the ball back. He controlled the drive with his arm and legs on a night where he ran it 16 times for 127 yards before throwing his third touchdown pass to Zach Ertz, who made a nice catch in the end zone to put an end to this one at 30-24.
The Falcons (8-8) are back to being in trouble for the playoffs, because they picked the worst time to blow their first fourth-quarter lead in the Raheem Morris era. But they really blew the clock management in each half of this one. I’m not sure why teams are getting so bad at not calling timeouts or spiking the ball or getting the next play in quicker. Someone like Peyton Manning has to be watching these games in disgust with the poor jobs we’re seeing around the league.
But Daniels looks like the next big thing in the NFL. We’ll get to see what he can do in the playoffs where he can enhance his legacy after one of the greatest rookie quarterback seasons ever.
Arguably the greatest when you consider his efficiency, his dual-threat ability, the way he makes up for the defense to win games with clutch moments, and he’s doing it for a franchise that hasn’t known success like this in decades.
Broncos at Bengals: Sean Payton Choke Meme
Some coincidence that our only two game-winning drives in Week 17 came courtesy of rookie quarterbacks forcing overtime on the road in 30-24 games that didn’t feel like they were ever going to end with some piss-poor game management from each team.
This was the better game of the two with the higher stakes, and watching the Denver defense hold Cincinnati to just a touchdown in the first half. It really felt like another Cincinnati playoff game where the offense looked tight, underwhelming, and the defense was stepping up in a 10-10 game to start the fourth quarter.
But the floodgates really opened in the fourth quarter with the teams exchanging touchdowns before they exchanged turnovers with a Tee Higgins fumble and a bad Bo Nix interception. That pick and a big pass to Ja’Marr Chase gave the Bengals a 1st-and-10 at the Denver 21 at the 2-minute warning with the Broncos down to two timeouts.
Now this is a situation where you would love to manage the clock so that if you take a couple of plays to get a first down, you could time this up to win 20-17 on a field goal on the final snap, the best way to end a game like this. But the Bengals, a team with minimal success in these situations over the years, botched it big time. They completed a pass to Chase Bronw that led the back out of bounds, then Burrow threw an incomplete pass, so that’s two snaps that took 9 seconds and saved both timeouts for Denver. Horrible job.
After converting a third down, the Bengals tried to run with Brown, who made an understandable decision to not score. But he must not be a baseball player as his slide technique was bad and he injured his ankle on the play, which cost his team a timeout. Not good. If he goes down properly, they could just take 2 knees and kick a field goal in the last 10 seconds to win this one.
That changed things, but it was still weird to see Burrow just sneak it in for a touchdown that Denver probably didn’t mind given the circumstances. The Broncos were going to get the ball back with 1:29 and a timeout. That’s pretty good, and the other reason you fear being up a touchdown instead of a field goal in that situation is that the team could always go for two and the win should they score. If it’s a field goal game, they’re just going to get the field goal most likely.
Sure enough, the Cincinnati defense let down after an encouraging game to that point. I’m not sure it was the greatest game management once the Broncos got inside the 35, but on a 4th-and-1, Nix showed some stones when he threw deep for Marvin Mims for a 25-yard touchdown with 8 seconds left.
Originally, it looked like the Broncos were going to go for two, but they changed their minds after a review confirmed the touchdown. This has been the big second-guessing moment after the game if they should have just gone for the 2-point conversion there to win the game.
But this was an unusual circumstance, because an overtime tie for Denver is just as good as a win in getting them into the playoffs. With that knowledge, I can totally buy going for the extra point and overtime. There’s also the fact that I think Joe Burrow has one of the weakest killer instincts in the NFL and I wouldn’t fear going to overtime with him one bit.
Sure enough, the Bengals got the ball first in overtime, and as soon as the drive reached midfield with the Bengals in position to go win the game, Burrow took back-to-back sacks and the team had to punt. Tale as old as time.
But the Broncos also went three-and-out, so that was bad. Their playcalling down the stretch was brutal, including a very ill-timed screen pass in the fourth quarter that almost lost the game earlier for them.
The Bengals took their second overtime drive and wasted it with a 33-yard field goal that hit the upright on third down. Why kick it a down early when you have time to get even closer? That kick isn’t hitting the upright if the kick was a few yards closer. Typical Zac Taylor in these spots.
With 2:43 left, a competent team would make Cincy pay for this, but the Broncos have not looked smart these last few weeks. I’m far more annoyed by Payton’s approach to this drive than any decision to kick an extra point at the end of regulation. First, he saved the Bengals time by calling multiple timeouts on defense on the previous drive. Would have been more beneficial to let that tick down if they were just going to choke anyway. Remember, the tie is cool for Denver and season ending for Cincinnati.
But then to not see the opportunity with 2:43 left that a first down or two ends the game and gets you in the playoffs? Awful. The Broncos ran three bad plays, punted, and only used up 23 seconds.
Burrow found Higgins for 31 yards on their best connection of the day down the sideline, then instead of relying on a backup kicker, they just threw a touchdown from 3 yards out to win it 30-24 and keep hope alive.
But I can’t help but point out how bad the game management was for both teams. If you’re the Bengals, you want to win that 20-17 in regulation and avoid this mess. That’s what the Chiefs would do in that spot, and yet people would have the nerve to bash them for winning a low-scoring 20-17 game. Meanwhile, that’s just smart football. 30-24 with all these extra possessions is just dumb.
However, that’s why these teams are fighting with Miami to be the last ones in the tournament and go to Buffalo. They’re not good teams this year. But they did make for an entertaining game and finish on Saturday.
Packers at Vikings: Sam Darnold Takeover
Remember in 2019 when Dan Orlovsky would make that ridiculous point about Carson Wentz “taking over” games for the Eagles? I’m not sure what made me think of that from this game, but I saw the way Sam Darnold was just completely outplaying Jordan Love, who struggled to get to 100 passing yards, and it made me think of the way Darnold just took this game over with 377 passing yards on 43 attempts despite the Vikings never trailing after it was 3-0 early.
Darnold had a fantastic game again. Sure, he threw the one pick when they were up big and it led to a little comeback attempt from the Packers that made this one scary at 27-25 with 2:18 left after the Packers wisely went for two. Someone explain to Tom Brady why they did that, please. Greg Olsen knows.
But with Aaron Jones injured, the Vikings needed to salt this one away with the passing game, and Darnold delivered on his last few attempts in the four-minute offense to make sure the Packers never touched the ball again.
You like a safer ending than that, but you’ll gladly take the big win for the Vikings, who swept the Packers with a pair of 2-point wins where Green Bay never had the ball in the fourth quarter while trailing by one score. That’s hard to pull off against an 11-win team, but they did it twice this year, and now they are going to be in Detroit next Sunday night for the No. 1 seed. Incredible stuff.
As for the Packers, my preseason Super Bowl pick, it’s very alarming the way they’ve lost to the Lions twice, the Vikings twice, and also in Brazil against the Eagles in Week 1. They made it look close enough at the end of these games, but you have to beat these teams in the playoffs to get to the Super Bowl, and that’s not looking strong right now.
But maybe they have a revenge tour in mind. We’ll just have to see as this division has been fantastic, and it’s getting the proper send-off with one of the best regular-season games in NFL history as it could be a pair of 14-2 teams if Detroit wins Monday night.
Jets at Bills: The New Three Stooges
And to think this game looked like it might decide the AFC East back in May when the schedule came out. But at least the Jets didn’t have to worry about blowing a fourth-quarter lead this time. They were down 40-0 before getting some points with Tyrod Taylor replacing Aaron Rodgers in the fourth quarter. That’s the first time in Rodgers’ career he trailed by 40 points in a game.
Anyone touting this as an MVP performance for Josh Allen just had their mind made up before the game even started. This shouldn’t move the needle as he finished with 199 total yards and 3 touchdowns, including a 1-yard sneak on 1st-and-goal to start the game. But the Bills only had 10 points on offense in the first half. The short fields they kept getting from the defense blew this one open after the Bills scored touchdowns of 38, 37, and 15 yards.
Rodgers had a rough day with 4 sacks, 2 picks, and he even picked up a 15-yard flag for a little shove out of bounds on a defender after his pick.
This is Buffalo’s division and could be for a long time like it was for New England.
Colts at Giants: No Banners, Just Misery
The 2024 Colts had issues with their quarterback position, including a disastrous benching of Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco, and of course the way Richardson has struggled with accuracy and staying healthy. But let’s not blame their downfall at the end on Richardson’s latest injury that put Flacco back in action in a must-win game in New York.
It was the defense who ultimately delivered the final embarrassing blow for this team after allowing Drew Lock, who had one of the worst games by any quarterback this season against Atlanta last week, to lead the lowest-scoring team in the NFL to 45 points.
Lock damn near had a perfect passer rating (155.3) with 309 yards and 4 touchdowns, but I don’t want to give him too much credit. The inability to tackle Malik Nabers (171 yards and 2 TD) had a lot to do with those numbers. This is right up there with the Tavon Austin (2013), Jonas Gray (2014), Brock Osweiler (2016), and 2021 Jacksonville games for the Colts. If you know the Colts, you know what I mean.
The offense was far from perfect, but they put up 33 points and Flacco had a couple of late turnovers after the game looked out of reach. It was just a disastrous day for the defense as they couldn’t even tackle Lock on an obvious scramble for another touchdown with 2:57 left that made it 42-33.
Embarrassing stuff, and I think heads have to roll in Indy after this. The defensive coordinator at the very least must go. At least with the team in past seasons after Andrew Luck retired, they had some moments I joked about with banners, mocking their “2014 AFC Finalist” banner. But this team under Steichen? No such achievements. Just enough teasing that they’re a bad wild-card caliber team that will get bounced in the 7-2 matchup, then they can’t even get into the tournament anyway.
The Colts have become irrelevant, and that’s sad to see.
Panthers at Buccaneers: More Domination
The Panthers and Buccaneers were in overtime in Week 13 with Baker Mayfield having a sloppy game. That wasn’t the case Sunday as he had as many incomplete passes (5) as he had touchdown passes. The Bucs were absolutely dominant in a 48-14 win to get back on track after that upset loss in Dallas.
Thanks to the Commanders taking care of Atlanta, the Bucs are back in position to win the NFC South again. They’ll just have to beat the Saints at home or hope the Falcons lose to the Panthers.
Cardinals at Rams: Another Low-Scoring Win
Ever since the Rams beat Buffalo 44-42, they are 3-0 in games that ended 44-24 cumulatively. It’s been a wild run for a team with Matthew Stafford at quarterback, who again didn’t get much going in the passing game outside of throwing to Puka Nacua.
The Rams are the first team since the 2006 Broncos to win at least three straight games where they didn’t score 20 points and didn’t allow 10 points. Those Broncos did it in five straight games. But the Rams are 10-6 after a 1-4 start, 9-2 since the bye, and they needed their defense to deliver with a goal line stand against the Cardinals.
Kyler Murray finally threw a touchdown to Trey McBride on a screen pass, but when he later went for him with the game on the line, he hit him right in the head with the ball and it was caught on the deflection for an incredible interception to secure the 13-9 win.
With Washington’s win, the Rams clinched the NFC West. They could play the Commanders or Packers in the playoffs, and it likely will be tough on them. But another great turnaround job by McVay after a poor start.
Cowboys at Eagles: Kenny Pickett Doing Kenny Pickett Things
A year ago, I wouldn’t have believed Kenny Pickett would be starting a game for the Eagles to clinch the division title, but here we are. One thing that doesn’t surprise me is it was Pickett vs. Cooper Rush as Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts have met just three times since Hurts was drafted in 2020. They’re the Ravens-Steelers of the NFC as far as their quarterbacks missing the rivalry games go.
But before leaving yet another game with an injury, Pickett had some hilarious highlights like this play here:
He also should have had two touchdown passes in a half for the first time in his career, but penalties and a receiver going down at the 1 before he snuck it in on the Tush Push prevented that. But you have to laugh that the third quarterback, Tanner McKee, came in for Pickett and threw 2 touchdowns on 4 pass attempts in his NFL debut.
With CeeDee Lamb out, the Cowboys had little to show for on offense, turned it over four times, and made this a fairly easy 41-7 win for Philly. Saquon Barkley rushed for 167 yards, becoming the 9th player to hit 2,000 yards in a season. I’m glad he did it in 16 games. I’m not sure him breaking Dickerson’s record – he needs 101 yards – in a 17th game where he probably doesn’t even need to play a snap with the Eagles the No. 2 seed – would be a legitimate way to break the record. Just let it be and get ready for the playoffs.
Chargers at Patriots: What Exactly Does New England Do Well?
I’m used to the Chargers choking against the Patriots, and even in winning there last year, they still had two field goals in a 6-0 dud. But between Drake Maye checking out early with a possible concussion (he later returned) and the way the score got out of hand so quickly, I found myself changing the cats’ litter boxes by the third quarter after Ladd McConkey (my guy) punked them for a second touchdown.
Nice to see the Chargers get a comfortable win and punch their postseason ticket with a 10-6 record. I’m just not sure what the Patriots do well at this point as the defense has gotten worse with Jerod Mayo, and they still don’t have any weapons for Drake Maye.
But hey, they might have the No. 1 pick now and we know they won’t need to draft a quarterback. Travis Hunter time?
Raiders at Saints: I Actually Missed Derek Carr Sunday
This was supposed to be Derek Carr’s chance to make history by losing starts to all 32 NFL teams. But he was out with an injury, so we got treated to another Spencer Rattler start. At least they scored some points this week after getting shutout in Green Bay, but it was still a decisive 25-10 win for the Raiders, who are suddenly on a winning streak.
Given the way the offense moved the ball with a rare appearance by the running game (156 yards), I think the Raiders would have defeated Carr in New Orleans in this one. A pity we didn’t get the chance to see it.
Dolphins at Browns: Good Job, Miami
I rarely have anything good to say about Miami, because I don’t think any franchise does more to have irrelevant 7-to-9 win seasons that don’t produce a postseason win. But I have to say it was a good job by Mike McDaniel’s team to win on the road in Cleveland with Tyler Huntley at quarterback after a surprise inactive for Tua Tagovailoa in a must-win game.
Huntley was very good at managing the game while the Browns saw “DTR” complete 24-of-47 passes for 170 yards in a 20-3 final. For the people who don’t believe quarterbacks change everything, just think how differently this game looks if it was Tua vs. Jameis.
But the Dolphins (8-8) stay alive and just need the Broncos to lose to the Chiefs to make the playoffs next week if they beat the Jets to finish 9-8. But a 9-8 finish that doesn’t even result in a postseason berth would be 100% on brand for Miami.
Titans at Jaguars: It’s Raining, It’s Boring
Well, the Titans (3-13) are abysmal after a couple of low-scoring losses at the hands of the Jaguars this month. They had a late shot to win this one with a touchdown and 2-point conversion, but Mason Rudolph’s rally came up 26 yards short.
We’ll see if the Jaguars make a coaching change for 2025, but you have to say the Jaguars are closer to competing than the Titans as the way things stand. At least Trevor Lawrence can come back and throw to a young stud in Brian Thomas Jr. next season.
Next week: The end is nigh. On Saturday, it looks like they’re giving Lamar Jackson one last MVP showcase with the biggest spread (18.5) of the season against the Browns. Then it’s Bengals-Steelers, which feels like an attempt to get Cincy in since the Steelers might want to rest players if the Ravens have the division locked up. Sunday, we’ll see if the Broncos can beat Kansas City’s backups (Carson Wentz beat the 49ers’ backups last year with the Rams) or if Sean Payton will join the 2004 Bills as chokers in that situation. But the big one is the last one with Vikings at Lions, possibly a matchup of 14-2 teams for the No. 1 seed. Brilliant.
The season where Derek Carr turned into 2007 Tom Brady and held off Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield for the MVP nearly broke me.
I’m trying to keep the big picture in mind for the 2024 NFL season, but after an upset-heavy Sunday where a lot of offenses struggled again, I’m skeptical about what’s to come. This could be a season like 2021 where no one is truly great, and you end up with a Super Bowl between No. 4 seeds.
Though, it probably won’t be the Bengals vs. Rams again as both teams are 0-2 and not looking great. But even the Ravens are 0-2, easily the biggest surprise in that group as you had to think a home game with the Raiders was a given, right?
But nothing is a lock. In fact, the three biggest favorites by the point spread are 0-3 this season. Those were all favorites of 7.5 points or more, including the Bengals last week against New England. Teams favored by that much in Weeks 1-2 were 30-1 SU since 2018. The only other seasons in the 16-game era where three favorites lost this quickly were 1978 and 2003. Those seasons still finished with a traditional Super Bowl rematch (Steelers vs. Cowboys) and the Patriots were in another one (albeit against Jake Delhomme).
Get your Chiefs vs. Saints Super Bowl LIX futures in now? Eh, long way to go, but it was a wake-up call day for a lot of teams. Following 10 games in the early window was insane too. The NFL should really rethink that as the 3-game late slate is not good enough.
When Joe Burrow says the Bengals are built specifically to beat the Chiefs, I wonder what he means exactly. On the offensive side of the ball, I don’t really see it. At least not with the current makeup of the Bengals without Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, and with Tee Higgins injured.
But Sunday went against type for the Bengals as they used their tight ends the most they ever have in a game with Burrow, copying some elements of how the Ravens had success with Isaiah Likely in Week 1 using multiple tight ends. When Mike Gesicki (91) and Drew Sample (28) are more than tripling Ja’Marr Chase in (35) in receiving yards, something’s up.
It almost worked out too, but Burrow did not hold up his end of the bargain. Much like in the two AFC Championship Games these teams played, he had a bad turnover in the fourth quarter. But this time it was a strip-sack returned for a touchdown while the Bengals led 22-17. That was huge with the Chiefs struggling to stay ahead of the Bengals in this game.
One could argue the Bengals bring out the worst in the Kansas City offense. In this game, they were able to hold Patrick Mahomes to 151 passing yards, the first time he’s ever been under 166 yards in a game he completed. He only threw it 25 times, but they also got two interceptions, including a brilliant one-handed catch late in the third quarter. Throw in the obligatory fumble from the Chiefs, and the Bengals were up 3-0 in turnovers with the ball before Burrow’s massive fumble.
But if we can back up, why did the Bengals not go for two on a touchdown that made it 22-17 with minutes left in the third? They should have tried to make it 24-17. But Evan McPherson missed the extra point, and that set us down a path that ultimately led to the Chiefs escaping with a 26-25 win. Things would have been different at 24-17. The fumble would only have tied the game, and so would a late field goal by the Chiefs as overtime would have been a possibility.
Going for the extra point was the first mistake, Burrow’s fumble was the second, and the third came on the next drive when Chase lost his cool and picked up a 15-yard flag from the refs. Instead of a 3rd-and-7, the Bengals faced a 3rd-and-22. They were able to salvage that drive for a field goal attempt, and McPherson redeemed himself with a 53-yard field goal to give the Bengals a 25-23 lead.
The Chiefs have a real problem right now with rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia being outmatched by an edge rusher on par with Trey Hendrickson. After Mahomes was sacked, the rookie tackle was also flagged for a hold that negated a 41-yard play to Travis Kelce, who only finished the game with a 5-yard swing catch.
Running out the final 6:57 would have been tough, but the Bengals were doing well until Burrow took another third-down sack and the team had to punt. The Chiefs had 2:35 to get a field goal, but it really felt like they came out of the two-minute warning with a lazy approach as if they weren’t down and this was really important.
A 1-yard run, a nonchalant throwaway, and just like that it was 3rd-and-9 where pressure forced a short throw to bring up 4th-and-6. Then the game got a little goofy. Mahomes made what should have been another game-winning type of play, finding Rashee Rice for 21 yards to the Cincinnati 34. Bang, there’s field goal range in the final 50 seconds with the Bengals down to one timeout.
But a lineman (not Kingsley) was flagged for illegal hands to the face, and it’s hard to say the call was anything but correct. Shades of 2023, the Chiefs were shooting themselves in the foot and had to convert a 4th-and-16. Mahomes threw deep for Rice, but it bounced incomplete off the defensive back’s head only for a flag to come in for pass interference on Daijahn Anthony, a 7th-round rookie who played 2 defensive snaps last week, and somehow he found himself defending the Chiefs’ best receiver on 4th-and-ballgame.
You’ve seen it, I’m sure. Was it not textbook pass interference?
You might get some leeway on defense in a Hail Mary situation, but this was not a Hail Mary throw. It was to a spot where Rice or Anthony could catch it, and Anthony clearly arrived early and tried to play the ball through the receiver by making contact high and to the head. I think they actually might let that one go if he jumped straight up with Rice, but he leaned into him too much and that’s a penalty.
Every little penalty in a Chiefs game turns into this big controversy now, but I see two penalties on crucial fourth-down plays, and both were correct. Had the first one not been called, the Chiefs are running the ball a couple of times and kicking a field goal from the same distance or even shorter than they ultimately did. You can’t just harp on the 4th-and-16 and ignore that the Bengals were fortunate they got a 4th-and-6 call that negated a conversion.
The Chiefs didn’t make it any easier on Harrison Butker, but from 51 yards out, he was money right down the middle again for the 26-25 escape to drop the Bengals to 0-2.
The prospects of the 2024 Chiefs fielding their strongest team yet are not looking great. They’re 2-0 against arguably two of their main AFC rivals, but is that saying a lot right now? New England beat Cincy and the Raiders just beat the Ravens.
I don’t doubt the Chiefs won’t be the toughest out for anyone in January, but you combine a Hollywood Brown injury that will keep him out of the regular season with this very unproductive Kelce start and add in a Pacheco injury at the end of this game, and things aren’t looking the greatest.
But I think if you’re just being honest as a Chiefs fan, you don’t want to see this Cincinnati team again this season. They just have that way of bringing out the worst with this offense.
Raiders at Ravens: Upset of the Year
In Week 3 last season, the Ravens lost 22-19 at home in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite against Gardner Minshew and the Colts. This year in Week 2, they lost 26-23 at home as an 8.5-point home favorite against Minshew and the Raiders. It’s the worst spread loss for the Ravens in the regular season in the Lamar Jackson era.
What is going on in Baltimore? They usually save these disappointments for January, but Justin Tucker is missing 50-yard field goals while the rest of the league crushes them, Derrick Henry struggled to get going for a long time Sunday, and once again Minshew led the game-winning drive Jackson couldn’t. Remember, Jackson didn’t have a single game-winning drive last year despite the team’s 13 wins in his MVP season.
This game was too close for comfort for a long time, but it sure looked like the Ravens had it in the bag when Henry scored to make it 23-13 with 12:11 left. But the Raiders got a field goal, Henry was called for a false start to knock the offense out of a 3rd-and-1 on a three-and-out, and the Raiders were bailed out on a 3rd-and-17 incompletion with a defensive pass interference penalty in the end zone.
We looked at the Kansas City DPI, so here’s the Baltimore one:
Here’s the Brandon Stephens DPI that was called late and from an official across the end zone not on top of the play itself. #RavensFlockpic.twitter.com/TSVPMIep3p
I don’t like the call, but I can kind of see the optics for why Davante Adams was able to sell it for a penalty. I see Stephens initiate the contact with his left hand on Adams, but they were both grabbing and fighting each other into the end zone. But at the last moment, Adams positions himself to dive for the ball while Stephens takes a different angle and bats at it. Maybe if did more to let Adams go to try going for the pick, they would have let it go.
But that is definitely a tough call. Adams caught a touchdown on the next snap and the game was tied with 3:54 left. Maxx Crosby immediately sacked Jackson to blow up another drive for a 3-and-out. Just a terrible drive for the Ravens there.
The special teams are usually great, but the Ravens hurt themselves with a 24-yard punt, so Minshew got to start at the Baltimore 43. The drive moved 23 yards and Daniel Carlson was good on a 38-yard field goal to take a 26-23 lead with 27 seconds left.
You still have a chance with Tucker’s leg despite recent misses, but the Ravens were out of timeouts. With one snap left and 59 yards away, I guess Lamar thought his best shot was to run for it and lateral, but I’m not sure why he didn’t keep going down the left sideline before starting that part of it.
The Raiders rushed for just 27 yards in this game while Baltimore had 151 thanks to that last play being their longest in the game. But this makes the Raiders the only NFL team since 1970 to win as an 8.5-point underdog while rushing for less than 30 yards and getting outrushed by over 115 yards.
Just a brutal loss for the Ravens (0-2). Was the loss of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to Seattle even bigger than expected? They were still blowing a handful of multi-score leads under Macdonald in 2022 as well, so maybe 2023 was the outlier here.
It’s not getting any easier too. The Ravens are in Dallas before hosting Buffalo the next two weeks. There’s at least precedent for them losing at home by a field goal to Minshew and losing to Mahomes, but they have to start showing more than they have so far in 2024.
Saints at Cowboys: Did Carr Absorb Brady’s Powers Before the Game?
Well, I was right about Derek Carr throwing an interception in Dallas. But that was only after he hung 41 points as the Saints opened with six straight touchdown drives, looking like some mixture of the 1999 Rams, 2007 Patriots, and the 2023 Packers team that went into Jerry’s World in January and embarrassed Dallas.
I liked the Saints to make the playoffs and possibly win the NFC South this year, but where the hell did all of this come from? I guess maybe beating up those South teams wasn’t meaningless as they only just added to this figure of dominance from last week and late in 2023:
Largest point differential in NFL over last 6 regular season games
The 2023-24 Saints join the 1941 Bears, 1968 Browns, 2007 Patriots, and 2018 Saints as the only teams in NFL history to score at least 44 points in three straight games. That’s historic company for a team no one was expecting this from. Alvin Kamara is out there playing like he’s 1999 Marshall Faulk. Carr’s 96.2 QBR leads the league and he’s treating Rashid Shaheed like he’s his Randy Moss.
But in one of the most shocking stats I’ve ever heard, Derek Carr started this season with 15 straight scoring drives.
How did he do that? That’s 9 straight scores against Carolina, then he was benched for the backup on the final two drives (both punts) with the game in hand, then he led 6 straight touchdowns in Dallas to get to 15.
I’m not sure if any quarterback has done that before even if you search through prime Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or Mahomes. Even when Josh Allen reached some offensive perfection in the 2021 playoffs by going 7-for-7 on touchdown drives against New England, and best you can stretch that out to 10 straight scoring drives by including the regular season finale and the next playoff game in Kansas City. He started that one with a punt on his second drive, so even him playing his best didn’t come close to 15 straight scores.
The quarterback being pulled for the score is certainly a strong factor for why this streak can even exist. But I honestly don’t know if you can find another streak like this for a quarterback in the NFL.
And it’s Derek Carr who did it? Insane. Carr only threw 16 passes in Dallas but they went for 243 yards. It was an onslaught of big passing plays and a consistent ground game. The Cowboys never had much of a shot to keep up as Dak Prescott threw for 293 yards, a touchdown, and 2 picks. The first pick was the swing moment just before halftime when the Cowboys were down 28-13 and just converted a 3rd-and-10. The pick felt a little similar to the pick-six he threw in January to Green Bay to make it 27-0.
But I still never would have believed the Saints had this type of performance in them. When we’re asking for a team to step up this year and show it’s great now, could this really be the team that does it? Is new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak a nepotism hire that’s worth its weight in gold?
Very curious to see where this goes as the Sains have been blowing teams out for longer than two weeks. No one cared late in 2023 because they were missing the playoffs. They should have everyone’s attention now.
49ers at Vikings: They Haven’t Won in Minnesota Since WHEN?
I couldn’t believe this stat when I heard it, but the 49ers haven’t won in Minnesota since December 1992, or a month after Bill Clinton won his first presidential election. The 49ers were on an 0-7 streak in Minnesota.
Make it 0-8 now. I knew they lost in Minnesota last season on a Monday night, and I chalked that up to injuries (Christian McCaffrey), a fluky touchdown to Jordan Addison before the half, and Purdy suffering a concussion late in the game before he threw some bone-headed picks. I liked the 49ers, who were without CMC again, to roll with Jordan Mason and overcome that loss last year.
Welp, I was wrong. They let Sam Darnold hit Justin Jefferson for a 97-yard touchdown that could go down as the longest play from scrimmage in this entire season. The 49ers also had a punt blocked, turned it over on downs twice, and Brock Purdy coughed up the ball on a drive that should have led to a 27-7 lead for the Vikings in the fourth quarter, but Aaron Jones fumbled on his way to the goal line to keep some hope alive in a 20-7 game.
But there was no comeback. Despite a 99-yard touchdown drive after the Jones fumble, the vaunted San Francisco defense couldn’t get Darnold off the field in several crucial third-down chances with Jefferson sidelined with an injury. Addison was already out before the game, and the Vikings haven’t even had tight end T.J. Hockenson available yet in these games. They could actually get better.
But their 6:46 drive for a field goal was a dagger as the Vikings were back up 23-14 with just 3:30 left. The 49ers added a field goal with 1:12 left to make it 23-17, but they couldn’t get the ball back after the onside kick failed.
I guess Brian Flores’ scheme is the magic weapon against the 49ers (without CMC)? Mason still rushed for 100 yards. Purdy still threw for 319, but it was the 6 sacks and the timely stops that frustrated the 49ers the entire game.
Buccaneers at Lions: Something’s Missing with Detroit
This spread (Lions -7.5) felt too high even if Detroit technically covered it twice last year against Tampa Bay. But the Buccaneers looked great last week, and Baker Mayfield has been playing very well. I wasn’t that impressed with Detroit last week in the overtime win over a battered Rams team, and sure enough, they were worse in this game.
Something just feels off with Detroit right now. Jameson Williams had a 50-yard catch again and looks better than Josh Reynolds ever did, so it’s not the lack of a WR2 or anything. Maybe it ‘s a slow start for tight end Sam LaPorta (13 yards) or how the running game hasn’t really been that great outside of the overtime drive last week.
But it always looks worse when Jared Goff is throwing his Jared Goof picks, and that happened a couple of times in this one. Even though the defense, led by an incredible effort from Aidan Hutchinson (4.5 sacks) got to Mayfield 5 times, they still gave up a rushing touchdown to Mayfield late in the third quarter to trail 20-16.
That still left Goff with four opportunities to get the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter, and despite each drive crossing deep into Tampa territory, the Lions went scoreless. Goff had a bad pick and later turned it over on downs twice despite the defense continuing to get him the ball back.
It was a big missed opportunity in a winnable game.
Bears at Texans: Not Quite My MVP’s Night
After a Sunday filled with contenders disappointing, I was hoping to see the Texans put on a show Sunday night in an easy win over Chicago. Instead, they scored 19 points on 12 drives, blew the spread, and had to come up with a last-second stop of rookie Caleb Williams, who was under duress all night from the pass rush.
At least the pass rush looked good with 7 sacks and plenty of pressures. But the Texans went from scoring 13 points on three drives to struggling the rest of the game. It looks like the huge Joe Mixon game in Week 1 was more about playing the Colts, a lousy run defense, than expecting any dominance out of the Houston running game this year. Mixon finished with 9 carries for 25 yards in this one as he was banged up.
But Stroud was solid, and that connection with Nico Collins (135 yards) is dominant. There is no denying who the WR1 in Houston is this year.
But I would have liked to see the Texans win in more convincing fashion against a Chicago team that still clearly has flaws with the offensive line, coaching, and Wiliams’ inexperience. He was better than he was in Week 1 at least.
Jets at Titans: Big Dick vs. Big Dick Energy
I guess the Jets can survive a team like Tennessee with this kind of effort, but they still have a lot of work to do to get up to the elite class. Aaron Rodgers might be good for one highlight-reel touchdown a week in this offense, but the highlight largely belonged to Breece Hall for a brilliant 26-yard touchdown that made him look like a wideout. Keep in mind that was on a drive to open the half that was nearly stopped on a three-and-out before a roughing penalty on the Titans negated a 3rd-and-15 stop.
The Titans had a lot of costly mistakes again in falling to 0-2. Will Levis again tried to do too much and had multiple turnovers, and they also had a punt blocked.
But to break a 17-17 tie in the fourth quarter, Rodgers led a 74-yard touchdown drive with 4:31 left. When Levis had to answer, his legs got them within 8 yards, but then things stalled out with a big sack, and Levis threw incomplete on 4th-and-14 to end the game.
The game did at least end a 7-game streak where Rodgers did not throw multiple touchdown passes, a streak that went back to November 2022.
Colts at Packers: Coaching Matters
A good example of how coaching matters. The Packers didn’t have Jordan Love, and their backup Malik Willis has failed to throw for 100 yards in each of his three NFL starts. But Matt LaFleur had a run-heavy gameplan as the Packers rolled up 261 yards on the ground with most of that coming before halftime as Josh Jacobs (151 yards) and company were outstanding. Well, except for that horrible fumble by Jacobs at the 1-yard line as he carried the ball like a loaf of bread.
But the Packers managed the game beautifully without Love. Willis finished 12-of-14 for 122 yards and a touchdown pass while rushing for 41 yards.
At this point, you have to wonder if Shane Steichen should be employing a similar approach with the raw Anthony Richardson, who threw 34 times but was picked off three times, including a Hail Mary to end things in the 16-10 loss. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor rushed for 103 yards but only had 12 carries. The Packers had long drives early while the Colts struggled to get into any rhythm.
The Colts are now 0-4 in games where Richardson plays most of the snaps. Not great.
Browns at Jaguars: The Lawrence Splits Continue
I said I was hedging my Week 2 picks with six games where I picked a spread winner different from the moneyline winner. I ended up going 5-0 ATS on those games (Falcons-Eagles pending) and 2-3 SU, so it wasn’t a bad strategy. Just needed a little more courage to pick the Browns and Packers outright to win.
But the reasons I liked the Browns in this one? They beat the Jaguars last year and I feel the defense has the right pieces to force Trevor Lawrence into a rough game, especially after discovering these stats where he basically can’t win a game if he doesn’t complete over 60% of his passes.
Looked into it more and it is historic.
Worst record since 1970 in games with sub-60% comp%:
1. Daniel Jones 1-16 (.059) 2. Trevor Lawrence 2-20 (.091)
Lawrence's record goes up 52.2 points when he completes over 60%, largest increase among all 179 QBs. https://t.co/tH9u3mRnu1
Sure enough, he was 14-of-30 in this game, so he was under 50% in the 18-13 loss. It was a rough game that seemingly never wanted to end as the Jaguars tried to make a comeback attempt late. They even had a 2-yard go-ahead touchdown with half a quarter left that was taken away for an illegal shift. They settled for a field goal to make it 16-13, Lawrence couldn’t get out of his end zone with the ball to start the next possession, and that sacked produced a safety with 1:44 left.
But the Browns were not able to run out the clock, and a Deshaun Watson incompletion on third down actually saved Lawrence a solid 40 seconds to make this 18-13 comeback plausible with 1:27 left.
He still had to go 90 yards, but after reaching the Cleveland 28, Lawrence’s Hail Mary was knocked away to end the game and drop the Jaguars to a disappointing 0-2 after both games were winnable.
Lawrence is now 2-21 when he doesn’t complete at least 60% of his passes. Daniel Jones is in the same boat and is now 1-17 when he doesn’t too, the only record that’s worse among the 179 quarterbacks since 1970 with at least 50 games of experience.
This might be how I pick Jacksonville games the rest of the year. Determining if Lawrence is going to complete a high rate or not. Right now, the connection to Christian Kirk is completely broken, and it didn’t help that tight end Evan Engram was injured in warm-ups and missed this game.
Giants at Commanders: OnlyFGs
Jayden Daniels’ first game-winning drive was a historic NFL game. I was skeptical of how Daniels would fare in a Kliff Kingsbury offense, but we have two games of evidence that he has drive engineering skills that can be very intriguing once he gets better at throwing the ball, especially to his wide receivers.
But after only getting the ball 8 times last week in Tampa Bay, each team only had the ball 7 times in this game. The Commanders just happened to turn all 7 of their possessions into field goals by Austin Seibert. That speaks poorly for their red-zone ability, but 3.00 Pts/Dr is still elite.
They took a knee before the half too, but this is really a perfect game if the goal was to score all field goals, and I don’t think there’s another like it in NFL history. If you search for games since 1940 where a team had no punts and no turnovers, only one game comes up showing a team that scored fewer than 26 points, and I’m thinking that’s just an error that they’re missing data for punts or turnovers or something’s off.
Only three teams show up for a game with 0 punts, 0 turnovers, and 5 field goal attempts. Interestingly enough, the Giants scored three touchdowns in this game and still lost because they only scored 18 points. Their kicker (Graham Gano) was injured before the game, made it worse on the opening kickoff, which was a 98-yard return by Austin Ekeler negated by penalty, and the backup missed an extra point. So, the Giants tried to go for two twice and failed both times.
Just an extremely unique way to get to a 21-18 score as both offenses were moving the ball quite well. Malik Nabers also looked the part of a No. 1 wideout with 10 catches for 127 yards and his first touchdown. But he’ll regret not hauling in that last target that he had a diving attempt for on 4th-and-4 at the Washington 22 with 2:09 left.
Instead, the Commanders took over in a tied game and Daniels hit his longest pass play for 34 yards to Noah Brown to set up the final, winning field goal with no time left. All seven field goals were from within 45 yards, and 6-of-7 were from within 33 yards.
You probably won’t see another one like this, but it does point to some interesting ways Daniels can operate in this offense with short passes and timely scrambles/designed runs. He just needs to stay healthy.
Steelers at Broncos: Flag Fest
It’s hard to judge the Pittsburgh offense right now as it seems like every highlight-worthy play gets called back by penalty, and sometimes it’s not even a good call. The Steelers only scored 13 points in Denver, but that was enough to outlast a supposed offensive genius in Sean Payton, who relied on some tricks to get Bo Nix to complete some passes down the field. But Nix wasn’t as painfully inefficient as he was last week in his debut. He’s just struggling on a team that frankly is lousy, and they have no real running game to support him with.
But it was a tough game to watch with 19 accepted penalties for 202 yards between the teams. The Steelers punted 8 times while the only turnover was a pick in the end zone by Nix before he added a second on a last-ditch desperation throw.
The Steelers reportedly gave Russell Wilson a game ball in the revenge game his calf wouldn’t let him play. I wonder what Tomlin is thinking at this point as they are not scoring enough points to beat any decent team, but Fields also isn’t screwing up egregiously yet to bench him for Wilson, a wild card.
But celebrating a 2-0 start when you’re averaging 15.5 points per game is a weird thing to do. They still have a lot of the offensive stink they’ve had since December 2020.
Chargers at Panthers: Stress-Free 2-0 Chargers
It almost happened last week, and it did happen Sunday when J.K. Dobbins had more rushing yards (131) than Justin Herbert had passing yards (130). But Herbert threw for two touchdowns to Quentin Johnston, who held on this time, and it was a stress-free 26-3 win over a pathetic Carolina team. Herbert is owed some layups after what he endured his first four seasons.
But it’s shocking that the Panthers actually look worse in every way this year under coach Dave Canales. Bryce Young is daring to be the worst quarterback drafted No. 1 overall since JaMarcus Russell, and maybe the only thing stopping me from calling him the biggest bust is that he’s a tiny guy with a relatively small contract.
But Young flat-out stinks as he managed to complete 18-of-26 passes for just 84 yards. Young is the only quarterback in NFL history to complete at least 18 passes in a game without throwing for 100 yards.
I didn’t think there was anything Canales could do to get himself fired like Frank Reich did 11 games into the 2023 season, but I might have to rethink that. This team is still the worst in the NFL and there has been nothing they could even hang their hat on from either game so far.
Seahawks at Patriots: Better Played Than Expected
You might have imagined a rough offensive game with this one being a “body clock” game for Seattle, which traveled without the services of Kenneth Walker. But the offenses were actually solid in doing what they do best.
The Patriots didn’t ask Jacoby Brissett to throw much, but they found creative ways to get the ball to tight end Hunter Henry for 109 yards. That supported a running game that piled up 185 yards.
But when it came time to pick up a 3rd-and-1 in overtime, Rhamondre Stevenson was stopped and the Patriots decided to punt from their 39. They never saw the ball again, but that is a tough call to go for it as the game is about to be over with a field goal inside the 40 if you don’t get it. Tough spot to come up short after another good rushing effort.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks couldn’t run the ball without Walker, gaining 38 yards on 14 carries with his replacement (Charbonnet). But props to Geno Smith for a big-time passing game (327 yards) without any turnovers.
The Seahawks blocked a 48-yard field goal with 3:54 left that would have made them have to score a touchdown, so add that to the list of “shit that Tom Brady never had to worry about in New England for two decades.”
That allowed the Seahawks to tie with a field goal to force overtime, and the defense’s impressive stop got them the ball back deep in their own end. Geno delivered on the game-winning drive, and the Seahawks paid it off with a 31-yard field goal to win 23-20 in overtime.
The Seahawks are 2-0, and with Tua Tagovailoa probably being out for Miami in Week 3, they have a real shot to go 3-0 with this schedule opportunity.
Rams at Cardinals: Did You Really Doubt Marvin Harrison Jr.?
It’s funny how we had one week of panic over Marvin Harrison Jr. because he caught one ball for 4 yards last week, and apparently the GPS data said he never ran faster than 16 miles per hour.
Well, we can put that one to rest after he caught 4 balls for 130 yards and two touchdowns in the game’s first 12 minutes. He didn’t add to those numbers, but the team also didn’t need him to as they blasted a battered Rams team 41-10 in a game that was expected to be much tighter. Sean McVay usually is on the right end of these blowouts, but this time it was all about the weapons the Cardinals have (MHJ, Trey McBride, James Conner) and the dwindling options for the Rams after losing Cooper Kupp in the game. They already lost Puka Nacua in Week 1.
Throw in Stafford getting sacked 5 times behind a battered line, and this has the potential to turn into 2022 much quicker than any wild card season for the Rams. It’s getting late early.
Next week: Patriots-Jets on Thursday? I’ll be working on the computer. Texans-Vikings suddenly a lot more interesting than it has any business being. Eagles-Saints could be good, or the Saints could roll yet another team if Jalen Hurts is really as mistake prone this year as he looked in Brazil. Malik Willis Revenge Game in Tennessee, or does Jordan Love already come back? Chargering comes to Pittsburgh, or does it? Steelers might actually need to score more than one touchdown in that game. Definitely a lot of pressure in Cowboys-Ravens game as one will be 0-3 or 1-2 after it. So many amusing ways that one could go. Chiefs should be sharper in Atlanta on Sunday night. A somewhat bland MNF doubleheader (Jags-Bills, Commanders-Bengals), but let’s see if Jayden Daniels can drop Cincy to 0-3 and if the Bills can drop the Jags to 0-3.
My 2024 NFL season predictions featured “Making Offense Great Again” (MOGA) as the central theme to this season. Things got off to a solid start on Thursday and Friday night (bad field in Brazil withstanding), but Sunday was a kick in the nuts.
Most quarterbacks did not pass for over 200 yards, and we still might have Malik Willis to (not) look forward to with Green Bay next week after Jordan Love’s MCL injury.
I’m getting a late start on this, and I may do a story on it early this week, so I don’t want to get into all the details here. But the offensive revolution might be on hold again unless we let the Saints play the Panthers every week.
So far, 9-of-15 games featured a comeback opportunity, which is very normal. But it’s not so normal to only get one game with a true fourth-quarter lead change from an offense with time left in an entire week of games. It’s not like I expect another to come from Jets-49ers tomorrow night, but we’ll see.
Overall, I enjoyed Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The prime-time games (mostly) delivered, which can make up for a rough Sunday afternoon.
Rams at Lions: Game of the Day
Our first overtime game of 2024 was not a classic, but it was a solid playoff rematch from last year with Matthew Stafford falling to 0-2 against his former team in Detroit.
This game had a lot of injuries as Puka Nacua didn’t play the second half, and the offensive line was banged up badly for the Rams. Not much room for Kyren Williams, who never broke a run longer than 9 yards. Cooper Kupp ended up with 14 catches on 21 targets to make up for the loss of Nacua, and it almost was enough for the night.
Jameson Williams had his breakout game for the Lions with 121 yards and a touchdown. But I’m going to say it’s not ideal when Amon-Ra St. Brown only has 3 catches for 13 yards, one of the least productive games of his career. Jared Goff was up and down, and he got away with a dropped interception in the fourth quarter.
It was a rough game, but credit to the Rams for coming back from a double-digit deficit to taking a late 20-17 lead on a Kupp touchdown. But with a chance to run out the clock the way the Lions did to them in the playoffs, the Rams failed. Goff got his second chance, and he didn’t waste it. The Lions settled for overtime with a 32-yard field goal, but that was the right call as we know Dan Campbell loves a fourth down attempt.
After the way Super Bowl 58 ended, you kind of long for the strategy and system there to return, but we’re stuck with the old modified format. Sure enough, the Lions turned into the most dominant rushing team in the world all of a sudden and ran it right down the Rams’ throat despite little success earlier in the game. The Lions had 7 carries for 60 yards on the 70-yard drive in overtime, finishing things off with a 1-yard touchdown run by David Montgomery to win it 26-20, which means they even covered the spread (Lions -4.5).
Tough loss for an undermanned Rams team that was right there again. But with Jordan Love injured in Green Bay, the Lions look to be in good shape relative to the rest of the NFC North right now.
Patriots at Bengals: Upset of the Week
I should have known better that this game was trouble when it had the biggest spread (Bengals by 8+) of Week 1 as the Bengals simply shit the bed to start the season more often than not. Blame Zac Taylor, blame Joe Burrow, but they keep doing this.
At some point, you have to acknowledge the facts. I don’t want to hear that Tee Higgins was out, or that they lost Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon in the offseason. What happened to “watch out for Iosivas” this season? I don’t even want to hear that Ja’Marr Chase had food poisoning this weekend. Chase played and he caught all 6 targets for 62 yards.
The real question should be why not more targets? We saw what Matthew Stafford, a real gamer, did on Sunday night with an absurdly injured offensive line, missing his tight end (Tyler Higbee), and Puka Nacua left with an injury suffered in the first half. He targeted Cooper Kupp 21 times and did what he could.
If Burrow is as good as people say he is, then he needs to overcome some of these shortcomings more often. This was another poor, lifeless Week 1 performance from the offense, which had 224 yards and 13 first downs.
Now there weren’t many possessions in this game, and Tanner Hudson blew points with a fumble inside the 3-yard line, which sounds like old-school New England defense to me.
The Patriots grinded things out on the ground with Rhamondre Stevenson rushing 25 times for 120 yards. Jacoby Brissett only passe for 121 yards, but he didn’t have turnovers and he only took a single sack. It was just enough
But even when the Bengals got the ball back in a 16-10 game with 3:04 left at their own 10, that was a great setup for a heroic Burrow drive. Instead, it was a three-and-out, and despite having four clock stoppages, the defense couldn’t get the ball back. The Patriots ran out the clock.
But you have to do better than a 3-and-out that deep in that spot. Just terrible, and now we’ll see if they can work their magic against the Chiefs next week to avoid starting 0-2.
Panthers at Saints: Rout of the Week
Statistically, the Saints were one of the most dominant teams on the scoreboard late in the 2023 season, and that’s a good trait for a team to make the playoffs the following year. I’m not taking any victory lap yet after they smashed the god damn Carolina Panthers, but on a Sunday where most NFL teams didn’t look great, the Saints’ utter dominance in every facet was impressive.
Remember, the Panthers were supposed to be improved this year with a new coach (Dave Canales), new weapons, and Bryce Young no longer being a rookie. But wow, Young may be heading down the path of all-time bust if this continues.
The Saints scored 17 points before Young even completed a pass. That’s hard to do. That also made it nearly impossible for him to succeed in this game, but he never settled in and the Saints continued blowing the Panthers out until it was 47-10.
Thankfully, we’ll see the Saints play in Dallas next week, so there’s a great chance to see where this team really is. As for Carolina, yikes, this is about the worst way to start after a 2-15 season where you never took a snap with a fourth-quarter lead.
Cowboys at Browns: The Only Way to Make Deshaun Watson Worse Is to Give Him Tom Brady’s Voice
Here’s what the Cowboys-Browns game featured:
Dak Prescott, the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history at $60 million per season after finally getting his extension Sunday morning despite never reaching the NFC Championship Game.
Deshaun Watson, who made the largest $230 million theft in NFL history when he fleeced the Browns in a 2022 trade for a fully-guaranteed contract despite more than two dozens accusations of sexual misconduct.
Tom Brady, the highest-paid broadcaster in NFL history at $37.5 million, more than double the next closest person despite zero experience in the broadcasting booth.
Is it any surprise the game turned out to be a piece of shit?
Prescott had one of his most forgettable games in the Mike McCarthy era. After a good start, his special teams basically put up the last 19 points with a punt return touchdown and four field goal drives that covered a whopping 42 yards between them.
And he was still easily the best quarterback on the field. The only way you could have made Watson worse was if you gave him Tom Brady’s voice. But I’m not going to get into why I think Brady has the completely wrong voice for this job that he stole from a more deserving Greg Olsen.
But Watson again looked terrible, and while you can respect a good Dallas front, the sack merchant was ever present with multiple turnovers and an inability to sustain offense. Even worse, Watson’s arm just looked shot. I don’t know how Kevin Stefanski doesn’t just bench him and go with Jameis Winston, but this continues to be the worst trade in NFL history and the biggest sunk cost you’ll ever see.
Ezekiel Elliott looked youthful and strong compared to washed-up Watson. It’s a miracle the Cowboys were ever a 2.5-point underdog in this one.
Jaguars at Dolphins: The One Where Tyreek Got Arrested First
You can’t make this stuff up. Tyreek Hill went from nearly going downtown with police officers, under arrest for a verbal altercation after a traffic violation, to catching the longest touchdown reception (80 yards) of his NFL career to spark a comeback win by Miami.
The Dolphins were very sluggish, down 14-0 to the Jaguars, before Hill took off for the end zone and even recreated the handcuffing incident he had in the morning. Watching that footage play out after watching the new Netflix movie Rebel Ridge (it’s great) the night before is crazy.
This is the third article tonight I’m writing about this incident, so I’m a little tongue-tied about it. But I really thought I was looking at AI images when I opened my phone Sunday morning and saw Hill handcuffed. Only the multiple videos and tweets from Adam Schefter clued me in this was real.
But what a major disappointment for the Jaguars, who went scoreless after halftime. They had a 17-7 lead and were 13 yards away from the end zone late in the third quarter. But Travis Etienne fumbled at the 3-yard line, one of the weekend’s biggest turnovers, and that completely changed the game. A play later, it was Tyreek for 80 yards.
The big plays won it for Miami, and kicker Jason Sanders redeemed himself for an earlier miss with a 52-yard field goal at the buzzer to win 20-17. Miami never led in the game before that final snap.
Curious to see where things go from here with the team’s biggest nemesis, Buffalo, coming into town Thursday night.
Titans at Bears: The Comeback Win I Sorta Predicted for Caleb Williams’ Debut
One of my favorite picks this week was Chicago getting a clutch, comeback win in Caleb Williams’ debut to start helping out Matt Eberflus’ league-worst record in such games.
Well, it happened. It didn’t happen in any way I imagined, but it was a classic throwback to the 2006 Bears and the way they came back to beat the Cardinals on Monday Night Football with multiple return touchdowns.
The Bears were awful offensively, trailed 17-0, and only finished with 148 yards of offense. The preseason is not the regular season, and Caleb was 14-of-29 for 93 yards. On the bright side, he only took two sacks and threw no picks. Jusitn Fields probably loses this game if given the chance.
But Williams was not doing much to help the comeback effort. The Bears blocked a punt for a touchdown. They also turned a strip-sack of Will Levis into a field goal drive that netted 1 yard.
But it ended up being one of the hardest games I’ve ever had to catalogue for 4QC/GWD purposes:
Chicago trailed 17-10 to start the fourth quarter and had a drive going with Williams.
The 44-yard drive ended with a 50-yard field goal to make it 17-13.
Levis coughed up the ball, setting up that 1-yard drive for a field goal to make it 17-16.
Technically, you just had two 4QC/GWD attempts, and the offense chipped in two field goals.
Four plays later, Will Levis forced a pick-six, and there goes the go-ahead score for Chicago at 22-17.
Williams completed a 2-point conversion pass to D’Andre Swift to make it 24-17, an important 7-point cushion.
It’s clearly a team fourth-quarter comeback. It’s clearly not a game-winning drive since the pick-six is not a drive. The 2PC was important though, and that makes me wonder if I should be counting it. But I’m not going to. At the same time, I’m giving Williams the 4QC win since without the two field goals from the offense, the pick-six doesn’t win the game for Chicago.
It’s a messy situation, and it’s all the fault of Levis. Why in the hell would you force this pass up on 3rd-and-6 with the lead? Just take the sack and live another drive.
I cannot stop watching Will Levis fall to his knees and just sit there after throwing the game-losing pick 😭😭😭 pic.twitter.com/ITO3VFFrvH
That is seriously some 2001 or 2006 Bears bullshit. Also, of course Levis couldn’t make up for it on the final drive, getting picked again.
Williams did not impress, but Levis disappointed even more as he should be further along than this. I’m really not sure about that 2023 draft class outside of C.J. Stroud.
Texans at Colts: My MVP Gets It Done in Wild Week 1 Game
C.J. Stroud is my MVP pick this year, but how about those new additions in Houston? Stefon Diggs caught both of Stroud’s touchdowns, but it was running back Joe Mixon who had the huge game with 159 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The Colts had few answers for this offense, especially in must-stop situations.
But the player I thought was the biggest wild card this year is Anthony Richardson, and he did not disappoint with his “boom-or-bust” playing label. He was only 9-of-19 passing, but he had three different completions for over 50 yards, including a 60-yard touchdown pass to Alec Pierce that was one of the longest and most impressive touchdown throws I’ve ever seen in the NFL:
He even slid before throwing it, so he didn’t fully step into it. Incredible play. Too bad he misses some of the easy ones, so if he can correct that with experience, then the Colts should have something here.
At least offensively. The defense could not stop Houston in the fourth quarter despite the offense making it a 2-point game twice. The Texans responded with touchdowns twice, including a play I loved the decision for from coach DeMeco Ryans.
The Texans were up 22-20 and faced 4th-and-2 at the 2-yard line with 4:45 left. Why kick the field goal to go up 5 points and risk losing on a touchdown in the final minute? Go for the jugular, which they did, and Diggs caught his second touchdown to make it a 2-score game again.
But even after Indy scored to again make it 29-27, the four-minute offense went to work with a couple of first downs, including a 3rd-and-11 conversion for 12 yards from Stroud to Nico Collins, a Colts killer.
It’s only one game, but again, this is why I’m big on the Texans to be a new rival to the Chiefs. If you get Stroud playing like this, he’s someone who could outduel Mahomes in a fourth quarter and keep the ball away from him in a one-score game.
Green Bay, my Super Bowl pick, almost broke my heart Friday night with the sloppy performance and Love injury. But the Texans, who were my Green Bay equivalent in the AFC to possibly derail Kansas City’s three-peat, gave me some confidence with this performance.
But let’s keep it going and get even better.
Steelers at Falcons: The Six Field Goal Mike Tomlin Special
I ended up (regrettably) watching most of this game. Basically, it was the kind of Chicago Bears win you would have thought Justin Fields could have enjoyed there. Pretty lousy offense, Fields flirting with disaster on fumbled snaps to start the game, bad third-down sacks as the coaching staff didn’t trust him, and the defense and special teams were fantastic for the Steelers.
T.J. Watt and kicker Chris Boswell basically won the game for them. We know the last Mike Tomlin playoff win was 18-16 on six field goals against the 2016 Chiefs. He kind of did it again as Boswell made six field goals and most of them were very long.
Watt was a beast again, and Kirk Cousins looked very rusty and slow in a new offense after his Achilles tear. Not a good debut at all for him, and it’s as if Arthur Smith never left. Hell, he was in the building calling multiple runs on 3rd-and-long in this game.
But this is how the Steelers win. Keep it close and hope that a fumble happens when a receiver is running in motion for Atlanta. That really did happen, and of course, Watt was the one there to pounce on the ball in a big moment.
But Cousins had his chances to be the hero as Fields – no shocker – couldn’t put the game away. But he was picked with 2:34 left and then sacked by Watt on the final snap to mercifully end this one.
The Steelers have some compensation incentives to not keep playing Fields, and I think we’ll see Russell Wilson eventually. But this kind of offense isn’t going to beat that many teams in the NFL without superhuman efforts from Watt.
He might be up to the task though, especially if the idea that linemen playing closer to the line instead of leaning back is a point of emphasis to cut down on those illegal formations.
However, I’m still puzzled as to why they traded Diontae Johnson. This passing game is George Pickens or bust right now.
Cardinals at Bills: The Almost Upset of the Week
I said in my Week 1 predictions that I could easily see Arizona winning this as an upset and referendum on Buffalo getting rid of Stefon Diggs. But even when the Cardinals went up 10, I wasn’t that worried as I noticed the Cardinals had the ball for 13 of the first 15 minutes. Buffalo just needed the ball.
Josh Allen was facing a no-name defense, so he didn’t need big-name receivers. He had plenty enough around him, but I was surprised that Dalton Kincaid only had an 11-yard catch. But I was confident in rookie Keon Coleman (51 yards led team in receiving) having an impressive debut against this secondary to alleviate some concerns after the team let the Chiefs get Xavier Worthy at No. 28. That could still be a huge regret, but Coleman was always going to produce this week.
By game’s end, Buffalo even pulled ahead in time of possession, so no big deal. But the Cardinals still made this interesting thanks to a 96-yard kickoff return touchdown in the fourth quarter. I’m not a big fan of the dynamic kickoff so far, but it is producing better field position and already a touchdown like that.
But in a 31-28 game, the Bills nearly botched this badly. They had a chance to put the game away but Allen was stuffed on a 3rd-and-2 run. Instead of going for the 4th-and-3 at the Arizona 21 at the 2-minute warning, they kicked the short field goal and settled for a 34-28 lead with Arizona having all three timeouts to drive for the winning touchdown.
To make it worse, the Bills’ kickoff went out of bounds, so Murray only needed 60 yards. He’s done far harder before, including against Buffalo in 2020 (“Hail Murray”). When you have Allen, you should be going for that fourth down. The 6-point lead is one of the worst places to be. At least if it was still a 31-28 game, you can count on Arizona to probably kick a field goal instead of go for a fourth down.
But the Cardinals had their chances, and it’s my understanding rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. was left wide open on the drive for a potential touchdown, but Kyler didn’t see it or didn’t think to throw to him. The drive ended with Murray throwing incomplete on 4th-and-7 at the Buffalo 29 with 26 seconds left.
Crisis adverted – barely. But the Bills will need to clean some things up in Miami this week, and Allen reportedly has a left hand injury that he suffered on one of his touchdown runs. Let that sink in.
Vikings at Giants: Wrong Improbable New York QB Breakout Year
I expected both of these teams to be terrible this year, and I still believe that’s highly possible. But one of my worst picks this week was the Giants as the upset special at home. I got a little too focused on what happened in 2022, ignoring 2023, and the fact that Daniel Jones is just not the answer. At least with Darnold, we haven’t seen him fail as many times, and he has some solid talent around him in a pass-friendly offense.
Darnold started this game on fire, then the team had little reason to score more as Jones wasn’t getting the job done. But this pick-6, while a very athletic play by the defender, is a good example of why this season needs to be Jones’ last in New York.
And what the hell were those jerseys? Alas, Andrew Van Ginkel is apparently the master of the fast interception.
Andrew Van Ginkel picked off Daniel Jones in 1.16 seconds, the fastest interception since Week 13, 2023 when Van Ginkel intercepted Sam Howell in 1.26 seconds.
Raiders at Chargers: Can Jim Harbaugh Go 5-1 in the AFC West?
Coach Jim Harbaugh made his NFL return with a win, 22-10 over the Raiders. He came here to make Justin Herbert’s life easier, and so far, it worked. The Chargers had just 11 first downs, the fewest in the Herbert era. They gave Herbert 170 rushing yards while he only threw for 144, another rarity.
The passing game is a work in progress with these young receivers, but how about J.K. Dobbins rushing for 135 yards in his team debut? He even ripped off a 61-yard play. Great to see after injuries robbed him in Baltimore from more success.
But mission successful in not blowing a two-score lead in the fourth quarter. However, the Chargers got some help from new Raiders coach Antonio Pierce, a hire I was not supportive for. In his first game without the interim tag, he made a big mistake in a 16-10 game with 7:15 left. The Raiders faced a 4th-and-1 at the Los Angeles 43 and decided to punt.
I can understand the old-school philosophy there as that’s what you used to do in those situations. But with under half a quarter left, you’re looking at maybe one more possession before you start relying on all your timeouts. You also have to remember that converting 4th-and-1 is in your favor (> 50%). I think punting was a big mistake, and you have to think it won’t be the last time we see this from Pierce, the big flaw in hiring a defensive-minded coach who only sees the old ways of the game he played.
To make it worse, the defense he relies on gave up a 92-yard touchdown drive thanks to the big Dobbins run. Gardner Minshew was picked to end it, but he’s probably still their best choice for a quarterback for the rest of the year despite only 10 points in Los Angeles.
But with the way the Raiders and Broncos look, who says Harbaugh can’t steal a game against the Chiefs and possibly go 5-1 in the division to fuel a playoff berth as a wild card? That was one of my main thoughts on the Chargers all along, but after Week 1, I feel even better about it.
Broncos at Seahawks: Sean Payton on His Week 1 Shit Again
The Seahawks are going to have some elite defensive stats in this one, the debut and first win for coach Mike Macdonald. But for the second year in a row, Sean Payton went into a Week 1 and watched his quarterback put on a dink-and-dunk performance that was literally for the record books.
After Russell Wilson had a record-low 177 passing yards on 27 completions against the Raiders last year, rookie Bo Nix did him one better and had just 138 yards on 26 completions. That’s the fewest passing yards in a game with more than 25 completions in NFL history.
This was rough, and Nix could have easily had more than the two picks he threw as Seattle dropped several. But it’s not like he had any real help out there other than his defense coming up with a pair of safeties, something you almost never see. But Nix ended up leading the Broncos with 35 rushing yards, including a late touchdown that made it mildly interesting at 26-20.
Geno Smith had some mistakes, but he also had a 34-yard touchdown run that he couldn’t possibly have done last year when he was playing hurt. When it came to icing the game with a late third-down pass to deny Nix getting a shot at a game-winning drive, Smith found Tyler Lockett for 9 yards to end things.
Enough to be encouraged about for Seattle, but we really need to see this defense play a quarterback who knows what they’re doing. Granted, there may not be a ton of those in the league right now. But even Jacoby Brissett will be a step up in competition in New England next week.
Started to get a sense of how Nix completed over 77% of his passes at Oregon last year to set an NCAA single-season record. He’ll take literally any short completion you will give him no matter how fruitless the gain is. But you can’t end his career after one game. He’s just a rookie, albeit an older one.
Commanders at Buccaneers: It’s Probably Not 2012 in Washington Again
I guess the hope all along with Washington repeating its 2012 season success with Robert Griffin III would be a surprisingly good season from Jayden Daniels. While he did make me very happy in his debut with a 2-touchdown performance on the ground (+2200 odds), it wasn’t the kind of passing performance you wanted to see. Terry McLaurin (17 yards) barely did a thing. More than half of Daniels’ 184 passing yards went to running backs.
But he ran the ball 16 times for 88 yards and will be viable at the goal line. He just better tighten that helmet as it came loose a couple of times and nearly cost him that second touchdown. I’d be quite bitter right now if that happened.
But Dan Quinn’s defense was no real improvement on last year when they were the worst in the league under Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio. Baker Mayfield picked them apart with 24-of-30 for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns. Mike Evans caught two scores and still has WR1 skills.
Tampa had one of the most thorough and complete performances of any team this week. Not that it should be that surprising against a rebuilt Washington team with a long way to go. But it’s a very good start with Detroit up next.
Next week: Are we peaking early with Bills-Dolphins on Thursday night? Saints-Cowboys could be interesting, or it could be a blowout. Either way, we get to test the Saints right away against a non-Carolina opponent, so that’s great. Bengals-Chiefs loses some luster with the New England upset, but it’d be typical NFL for Cincinnati to win that one to avoid an 0-2 start. That Chicago offense isn’t ready for prime time, so good luck in Houston. Ditto with Kirk Cousins going to Philly on his least favorite day of the week.
The writer’s strike may have ended weeks ago, but apparently the NFL already outsourced the 2023 season’s script to ChatGPT or another AI, because we are getting 2017 all over again. First it was the low-scoring games with stats not seen since 2017 around the league, then the quarterback injuries just got too eerily similar after Deshaun Watson (shoulder) and Joe Burrow (wrist) both went down for the season this week.
2017 major QB injuries: Aaron Rodgers Deshaun Watson Ryan Tannehill Colts QB (Andrew Luck) A No. 1 pick by Bengals (Carson Palmer)
2023 major QB injuries: Aaron Rodgers Deshaun Watson Ryan Tannehill Colts QB (Anthony Richardson) A No. 1 pick by Bengals (Joe Burrow)
I was so concerned in not going over my character limit so that this tweet would display to get the full effect that I forgot the Vikings’ QB1 is another match. The 2017 Vikings lost Sam Bradford early and had to roll to the title game with Case Keenum. Now the 2023 Vikings lost Kirk Cousins and are on a winning streak with Joshua Dobbs.
All we’re missing is the No. 1 seeded Eagles to lose their MVP front-runner to a torn ACL and watch Marcus Mariota win Super Bowl MVP after he outplays Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl 58. And Kenny Pickett and the Steelers can play the role of Jacksonville even better than 2023 Jacksonville can in the AFC Championship Game.
It’s been a rough season, but with the way contenders are dropping like flies, we just might see that Super Bowl rematch after all. We are seeing it for sure Monday night, but that might only be 1-of-2 meetings between the Eagles and Chiefs this year.
This Week’s Articles
Will Chiefs-Eagles Be the NFL’s Rare Super Bowl Rematch in February? – I did a deep dive on just how rare it is for an AFC and NFC team to meet in 3 straight seasons, and it’s still less rare than seeing two teams meet in back-to-back Super Bowls, which has only been done by 1992-93 Bills-Cowboys. But in doing the research for this one, I was absolutely shocked at just how few close calls there have been to another case of this. But I also think the Chiefs and Eagles are uniquely qualified to do it this year. The fact that they are No. 1 seeds entering Week 11 is good proof of that.
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 11 – I had a lot of nice hits last week and am back with some TD scorer/ML parlay picks, a low-scoring teaser, and a 4-leg parlay for Eagles-Chiefs.
It has always been the Ravens for me in the AFC North this year, but what a bummer of a game to lose Mark Andrews and Joe Burrow for the season. It was the best scheduled TNF game all year and that’s what happened to it. If you would have told me those injuries would happen, Lamar Jackson would go to the blue medical tent and look injured a few times himself, and the game still ended 34-20, I wouldn’t have believed it. But that ended a streak of 13 straight unders in the island games. Is this the week that turns the other way? Would be nice with the games scheduled, but I have my doubts.
Packers are my upset pick. I think they score 21+ points and it’s another close game for the Chargers.
Not sure what to do with TEN-JAX. I’m largely avoiding it but read my prop picks above to see why I’m manifesting the first Evan Engram TD catch of the season.
The Miami spread feels a little high, no? But then I looked at their 4-0 home record with every win by multiple touchdowns against scrubs and it makes more sense. I could see a 31-17 game there.
Kind of hated to pick Dallas to win big on the road since they haven’t really done that since Week 1 against the Giants. But that Carolina offense is so toothless that I just don’t see how they keep up. Dak is in a zone right now. Might be like Week 1, Cowboys finally win big on the road and Tony Pollard finally returns to the end zone.
I had a lot of success with picking games to be high scoring in the late window last week, and I think Cardinals-Texans has the potential for that. I have a nice parlay in my Scott’s Seven for this game, and you could even throw some overs for Marquise Brown and Nico Collins in there on yardage.
I might have picked the Steelers to lose to Cleveland if Watson was playing if only because I think Pickett is going to struggle with the defense on the road, and he won’t get the luxury of 2 return scores like Week 2. Then when I heard Watson was out, I still thought Cleveland because of P.J. Walker. But rookie DTR? I’m changing my pick. I’ll take Steelers to win this game, then lose to Jake Browning in his first start in Cincinnati next week. But I do really like the over for David Njoku in this game. It’s not like the Browns are going to have no yards. Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t great. They’re just timely in close games, and somehow the Steelers are drawing a schedule now with some of the only quarterbacks worse than Pickett.
I don’t trust the Commanders with a spread that big against a team they haven’t scored on in a couple of years. But I do trust Sam Howell over DeVito enough to get the win.
Definitely like Detroit to beat Chicago, and Justin Fields coming back doesn’t change my pick on the spread. I’m cautious on picking David Montgomery to have a big day since Gibbs is more established and the Bears have stopped the run well. But this is also easily the best rushing offense they’ve seen this year. I think you should work a Sam LaPorta TD into your parlays this weekend.
The 49ers crushed Tampa Bay 35-7 last year and it won’t be that bad again, but I like them to build off last week and win comfortably.
I’ll probably be keeping the Bills-Jets game out of most of my bets. Too unpredictable with Buffalo. But I could see a 24-14 game out of that one.
Not feeling Rams-Seahawks as a good betting game either. At least Stafford is back, so I’ll go with the Rams to steal another one. Return the favor for last year’s Seattle sweep.
I’m torn on SNF because I feel like Joshua Dobbs has done a great job, but Denver’s defense is legitimately improved and I could see him struggle, especially if Justin Jefferson doesn’t make his return. You need that extra wide receiver with the Broncos having Simmons and Surtain in the secondary. I still don’t believe in the Denver offense. I think it’ll be a close game and prime-time games involving Russell Wilson are usually batshit. Remember last year’s FG fest with Matt Ryan and the Colts? That was a Thursday. Remember the 6-6 OT tie with Arizona years ago? That was SNF. Take your pick with his Monday night games in Seattle, or just this Monday against Buffalo.
As for Eagles-Chiefs, I think I’ve covered the game enough in my links above at 365Scores about the Super Bowl rematch, my parlay pick, and in the prime-time pick articles. My gut feel is both teams are playing at a lower quality than they were last year, but the ways that they are different favor the Chiefs. Better on defense to keep the score low so it won’t be 38-35, Eagles not as good at running, and too reliant on A.J. Brown which could only get worse with Dallas Goedert out. That’s why I like another big DeVonta Smith game, but again, that under is 11-1 on MNF and we’ve been letdown so much by these “Game of the Year” choices in 2023. I’m rooting for a 24-20 type of game, but I am backing the Chiefs at home.
Let’s win something big this week. I feel like we’re running out of chances as I don’t want to be trying to figure out if Jake Browning can throw for 2 touchdowns in a game.
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 