Tag: Joe Burrow

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 1

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

My 2024 NFL season predictions featured “Making Offense Great Again” (MOGA) as the central theme to this season. Things got off to a solid start on Thursday and Friday night (bad field in Brazil withstanding), but Sunday was a kick in the nuts.

Most quarterbacks did not pass for over 200 yards, and we still might have Malik Willis to (not) look forward to with Green Bay next week after Jordan Love’s MCL injury.

I’m getting a late start on this, and I may do a story on it early this week, so I don’t want to get into all the details here. But the offensive revolution might be on hold again unless we let the Saints play the Panthers every week.

So far, 9-of-15 games featured a comeback opportunity, which is very normal. But it’s not so normal to only get one game with a true fourth-quarter lead change from an offense with time left in an entire week of games. It’s not like I expect another to come from Jets-49ers tomorrow night, but we’ll see.

Overall, I enjoyed Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The prime-time games (mostly) delivered, which can make up for a rough Sunday afternoon.

Rams at Lions: Game of the Day

Our first overtime game of 2024 was not a classic, but it was a solid playoff rematch from last year with Matthew Stafford falling to 0-2 against his former team in Detroit.

This game had a lot of injuries as Puka Nacua didn’t play the second half, and the offensive line was banged up badly for the Rams. Not much room for Kyren Williams, who never broke a run longer than 9 yards. Cooper Kupp ended up with 14 catches on 21 targets to make up for the loss of Nacua, and it almost was enough for the night.

Jameson Williams had his breakout game for the Lions with 121 yards and a touchdown. But I’m going to say it’s not ideal when Amon-Ra St. Brown only has 3 catches for 13 yards, one of the least productive games of his career. Jared Goff was up and down, and he got away with a dropped interception in the fourth quarter.

It was a rough game, but credit to the Rams for coming back from a double-digit deficit to taking a late 20-17 lead on a Kupp touchdown. But with a chance to run out the clock the way the Lions did to them in the playoffs, the Rams failed. Goff got his second chance, and he didn’t waste it. The Lions settled for overtime with a 32-yard field goal, but that was the right call as we know Dan Campbell loves a fourth down attempt.

After the way Super Bowl 58 ended, you kind of long for the strategy and system there to return, but we’re stuck with the old modified format. Sure enough, the Lions turned into the most dominant rushing team in the world all of a sudden and ran it right down the Rams’ throat despite little success earlier in the game. The Lions had 7 carries for 60 yards on the 70-yard drive in overtime, finishing things off with a 1-yard touchdown run by David Montgomery to win it 26-20, which means they even covered the spread (Lions -4.5).

Tough loss for an undermanned Rams team that was right there again. But with Jordan Love injured in Green Bay, the Lions look to be in good shape relative to the rest of the NFC North right now.

Patriots at Bengals: Upset of the Week

I should have known better that this game was trouble when it had the biggest spread (Bengals by 8+) of Week 1 as the Bengals simply shit the bed to start the season more often than not. Blame Zac Taylor, blame Joe Burrow, but they keep doing this.

At some point, you have to acknowledge the facts. I don’t want to hear that Tee Higgins was out, or that they lost Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon in the offseason. What happened to “watch out for Iosivas” this season? I don’t even want to hear that Ja’Marr Chase had food poisoning this weekend. Chase played and he caught all 6 targets for 62 yards.

The real question should be why not more targets? We saw what Matthew Stafford, a real gamer, did on Sunday night with an absurdly injured offensive line, missing his tight end (Tyler Higbee), and Puka Nacua left with an injury suffered in the first half. He targeted Cooper Kupp 21 times and did what he could.

If Burrow is as good as people say he is, then he needs to overcome some of these shortcomings more often. This was another poor, lifeless Week 1 performance from the offense, which had 224 yards and 13 first downs.

Now there weren’t many possessions in this game, and Tanner Hudson blew points with a fumble inside the 3-yard line, which sounds like old-school New England defense to me.

The Patriots grinded things out on the ground with Rhamondre Stevenson rushing 25 times for 120 yards. Jacoby Brissett only passe for 121 yards, but he didn’t have turnovers and he only took a single sack. It was just enough

But even when the Bengals got the ball back in a 16-10 game with 3:04 left at their own 10, that was a great setup for a heroic Burrow drive. Instead, it was a three-and-out, and despite having four clock stoppages, the defense couldn’t get the ball back. The Patriots ran out the clock.

But you have to do better than a 3-and-out that deep in that spot. Just terrible, and now we’ll see if they can work their magic against the Chiefs next week to avoid starting 0-2.

Panthers at Saints: Rout of the Week

Statistically, the Saints were one of the most dominant teams on the scoreboard late in the 2023 season, and that’s a good trait for a team to make the playoffs the following year. I’m not taking any victory lap yet after they smashed the god damn Carolina Panthers, but on a Sunday where most NFL teams didn’t look great, the Saints’ utter dominance in every facet was impressive.

Remember, the Panthers were supposed to be improved this year with a new coach (Dave Canales), new weapons, and Bryce Young no longer being a rookie. But wow, Young may be heading down the path of all-time bust if this continues.

The Saints scored 17 points before Young even completed a pass. That’s hard to do. That also made it nearly impossible for him to succeed in this game, but he never settled in and the Saints continued blowing the Panthers out until it was 47-10.

Thankfully, we’ll see the Saints play in Dallas next week, so there’s a great chance to see where this team really is. As for Carolina, yikes, this is about the worst way to start after a 2-15 season where you never took a snap with a fourth-quarter lead.

Cowboys at Browns: The Only Way to Make Deshaun Watson Worse Is to Give Him Tom Brady’s Voice

Here’s what the Cowboys-Browns game featured:

  • Dak Prescott, the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history at $60 million per season after finally getting his extension Sunday morning despite never reaching the NFC Championship Game.
  • Deshaun Watson, who made the largest $230 million theft in NFL history when he fleeced the Browns in a 2022 trade for a fully-guaranteed contract despite more than two dozens accusations of sexual misconduct.
  • Tom Brady, the highest-paid broadcaster in NFL history at $37.5 million, more than double the next closest person despite zero experience in the broadcasting booth.

Is it any surprise the game turned out to be a piece of shit?

Prescott had one of his most forgettable games in the Mike McCarthy era. After a good start, his special teams basically put up the last 19 points with a punt return touchdown and four field goal drives that covered a whopping 42 yards between them.

And he was still easily the best quarterback on the field. The only way you could have made Watson worse was if you gave him Tom Brady’s voice. But I’m not going to get into why I think Brady has the completely wrong voice for this job that he stole from a more deserving Greg Olsen.

But Watson again looked terrible, and while you can respect a good Dallas front, the sack merchant was ever present with multiple turnovers and an inability to sustain offense. Even worse, Watson’s arm just looked shot. I don’t know how Kevin Stefanski doesn’t just bench him and go with Jameis Winston, but this continues to be the worst trade in NFL history and the biggest sunk cost you’ll ever see.

Ezekiel Elliott looked youthful and strong compared to washed-up Watson. It’s a miracle the Cowboys were ever a 2.5-point underdog in this one.

Jaguars at Dolphins: The One Where Tyreek Got Arrested First

You can’t make this stuff up. Tyreek Hill went from nearly going downtown with police officers, under arrest for a verbal altercation after a traffic violation, to catching the longest touchdown reception (80 yards) of his NFL career to spark a comeback win by Miami.

The Dolphins were very sluggish, down 14-0 to the Jaguars, before Hill took off for the end zone and even recreated the handcuffing incident he had in the morning. Watching that footage play out after watching the new Netflix movie Rebel Ridge (it’s great) the night before is crazy.

This is the third article tonight I’m writing about this incident, so I’m a little tongue-tied about it. But I really thought I was looking at AI images when I opened my phone Sunday morning and saw Hill handcuffed. Only the multiple videos and tweets from Adam Schefter clued me in this was real.

But what a major disappointment for the Jaguars, who went scoreless after halftime. They had a 17-7 lead and were 13 yards away from the end zone late in the third quarter. But Travis Etienne fumbled at the 3-yard line, one of the weekend’s biggest turnovers, and that completely changed the game. A play later, it was Tyreek for 80 yards.

The big plays won it for Miami, and kicker Jason Sanders redeemed himself for an earlier miss with a 52-yard field goal at the buzzer to win 20-17. Miami never led in the game before that final snap.

Curious to see where things go from here with the team’s biggest nemesis, Buffalo, coming into town Thursday night.

Titans at Bears: The Comeback Win I Sorta Predicted for Caleb Williams’ Debut

One of my favorite picks this week was Chicago getting a clutch, comeback win in Caleb Williams’ debut to start helping out Matt Eberflus’ league-worst record in such games.

Well, it happened. It didn’t happen in any way I imagined, but it was a classic throwback to the 2006 Bears and the way they came back to beat the Cardinals on Monday Night Football with multiple return touchdowns.

The Bears were awful offensively, trailed 17-0, and only finished with 148 yards of offense. The preseason is not the regular season, and Caleb was 14-of-29 for 93 yards. On the bright side, he only took two sacks and threw no picks. Jusitn Fields probably loses this game if given the chance.

But Williams was not doing much to help the comeback effort. The Bears blocked a punt for a touchdown. They also turned a strip-sack of Will Levis into a field goal drive that netted 1 yard.

But it ended up being one of the hardest games I’ve ever had to catalogue for 4QC/GWD purposes:

  • Chicago trailed 17-10 to start the fourth quarter and had a drive going with Williams.
  • The 44-yard drive ended with a 50-yard field goal to make it 17-13.
  • Levis coughed up the ball, setting up that 1-yard drive for a field goal to make it 17-16.
  • Technically, you just had two 4QC/GWD attempts, and the offense chipped in two field goals.
  • Four plays later, Will Levis forced a pick-six, and there goes the go-ahead score for Chicago at 22-17.
  • Williams completed a 2-point conversion pass to D’Andre Swift to make it 24-17, an important 7-point cushion.

It’s clearly a team fourth-quarter comeback. It’s clearly not a game-winning drive since the pick-six is not a drive. The 2PC was important though, and that makes me wonder if I should be counting it. But I’m not going to. At the same time, I’m giving Williams the 4QC win since without the two field goals from the offense, the pick-six doesn’t win the game for Chicago.

It’s a messy situation, and it’s all the fault of Levis. Why in the hell would you force this pass up on 3rd-and-6 with the lead? Just take the sack and live another drive.

That is seriously some 2001 or 2006 Bears bullshit. Also, of course Levis couldn’t make up for it on the final drive, getting picked again.

Williams did not impress, but Levis disappointed even more as he should be further along than this. I’m really not sure about that 2023 draft class outside of C.J. Stroud.

Texans at Colts: My MVP Gets It Done in Wild Week 1 Game

C.J. Stroud is my MVP pick this year, but how about those new additions in Houston? Stefon Diggs caught both of Stroud’s touchdowns, but it was running back Joe Mixon who had the huge game with 159 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The Colts had few answers for this offense, especially in must-stop situations.

But the player I thought was the biggest wild card this year is Anthony Richardson, and he did not disappoint with his “boom-or-bust” playing label. He was only 9-of-19 passing, but he had three different completions for over 50 yards, including a 60-yard touchdown pass to Alec Pierce that was one of the longest and most impressive touchdown throws I’ve ever seen in the NFL:

He even slid before throwing it, so he didn’t fully step into it. Incredible play. Too bad he misses some of the easy ones, so if he can correct that with experience, then the Colts should have something here.

At least offensively. The defense could not stop Houston in the fourth quarter despite the offense making it a 2-point game twice. The Texans responded with touchdowns twice, including a play I loved the decision for from coach DeMeco Ryans.

The Texans were up 22-20 and faced 4th-and-2 at the 2-yard line with 4:45 left. Why kick the field goal to go up 5 points and risk losing on a touchdown in the final minute? Go for the jugular, which they did, and Diggs caught his second touchdown to make it a 2-score game again.

But even after Indy scored to again make it 29-27, the four-minute offense went to work with a couple of first downs, including a 3rd-and-11 conversion for 12 yards from Stroud to Nico Collins, a Colts killer.

It’s only one game, but again, this is why I’m big on the Texans to be a new rival to the Chiefs. If you get Stroud playing like this, he’s someone who could outduel Mahomes in a fourth quarter and keep the ball away from him in a one-score game.

Green Bay, my Super Bowl pick, almost broke my heart Friday night with the sloppy performance and Love injury. But the Texans, who were my Green Bay equivalent in the AFC to possibly derail Kansas City’s three-peat, gave me some confidence with this performance.

But let’s keep it going and get even better.

Steelers at Falcons: The Six Field Goal Mike Tomlin Special

I ended up (regrettably) watching most of this game. Basically, it was the kind of Chicago Bears win you would have thought Justin Fields could have enjoyed there. Pretty lousy offense, Fields flirting with disaster on fumbled snaps to start the game, bad third-down sacks as the coaching staff didn’t trust him, and the defense and special teams were fantastic for the Steelers.

T.J. Watt and kicker Chris Boswell basically won the game for them. We know the last Mike Tomlin playoff win was 18-16 on six field goals against the 2016 Chiefs. He kind of did it again as Boswell made six field goals and most of them were very long.

Watt was a beast again, and Kirk Cousins looked very rusty and slow in a new offense after his Achilles tear. Not a good debut at all for him, and it’s as if Arthur Smith never left. Hell, he was in the building calling multiple runs on 3rd-and-long in this game.

But this is how the Steelers win. Keep it close and hope that a fumble happens when a receiver is running in motion for Atlanta. That really did happen, and of course, Watt was the one there to pounce on the ball in a big moment.

But Cousins had his chances to be the hero as Fields – no shocker – couldn’t put the game away. But he was picked with 2:34 left and then sacked by Watt on the final snap to mercifully end this one.

The Steelers have some compensation incentives to not keep playing Fields, and I think we’ll see Russell Wilson eventually. But this kind of offense isn’t going to beat that many teams in the NFL without superhuman efforts from Watt.

He might be up to the task though, especially if the idea that linemen playing closer to the line instead of leaning back is a point of emphasis to cut down on those illegal formations.

However, I’m still puzzled as to why they traded Diontae Johnson. This passing game is George Pickens or bust right now.

Cardinals at Bills: The Almost Upset of the Week

I said in my Week 1 predictions that I could easily see Arizona winning this as an upset and referendum on Buffalo getting rid of Stefon Diggs. But even when the Cardinals went up 10, I wasn’t that worried as I noticed the Cardinals had the ball for 13 of the first 15 minutes. Buffalo just needed the ball.

Josh Allen was facing a no-name defense, so he didn’t need big-name receivers. He had plenty enough around him, but I was surprised that Dalton Kincaid only had an 11-yard catch. But I was confident in rookie Keon Coleman (51 yards led team in receiving) having an impressive debut against this secondary to alleviate some concerns after the team let the Chiefs get Xavier Worthy at No. 28. That could still be a huge regret, but Coleman was always going to produce this week.

By game’s end, Buffalo even pulled ahead in time of possession, so no big deal. But the Cardinals still made this interesting thanks to a 96-yard kickoff return touchdown in the fourth quarter. I’m not a big fan of the dynamic kickoff so far, but it is producing better field position and already a touchdown like that.

But in a 31-28 game, the Bills nearly botched this badly. They had a chance to put the game away but Allen was stuffed on a 3rd-and-2 run. Instead of going for the 4th-and-3 at the Arizona 21 at the 2-minute warning, they kicked the short field goal and settled for a 34-28 lead with Arizona having all three timeouts to drive for the winning touchdown.

To make it worse, the Bills’ kickoff went out of bounds, so Murray only needed 60 yards. He’s done far harder before, including against Buffalo in 2020 (“Hail Murray”). When you have Allen, you should be going for that fourth down. The 6-point lead is one of the worst places to be. At least if it was still a 31-28 game, you can count on Arizona to probably kick a field goal instead of go for a fourth down.

But the Cardinals had their chances, and it’s my understanding rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. was left wide open on the drive for a potential touchdown, but Kyler didn’t see it or didn’t think to throw to him. The drive ended with Murray throwing incomplete on 4th-and-7 at the Buffalo 29 with 26 seconds left.

Crisis adverted – barely. But the Bills will need to clean some things up in Miami this week, and Allen reportedly has a left hand injury that he suffered on one of his touchdown runs. Let that sink in.

Vikings at Giants: Wrong Improbable New York QB Breakout Year

I expected both of these teams to be terrible this year, and I still believe that’s highly possible. But one of my worst picks this week was the Giants as the upset special at home. I got a little too focused on what happened in 2022, ignoring 2023, and the fact that Daniel Jones is just not the answer. At least with Darnold, we haven’t seen him fail as many times, and he has some solid talent around him in a pass-friendly offense.

Darnold started this game on fire, then the team had little reason to score more as Jones wasn’t getting the job done. But this pick-6, while a very athletic play by the defender, is a good example of why this season needs to be Jones’ last in New York.

And what the hell were those jerseys? Alas, Andrew Van Ginkel is apparently the master of the fast interception.

Raiders at Chargers: Can Jim Harbaugh Go 5-1 in the AFC West?

Coach Jim Harbaugh made his NFL return with a win, 22-10 over the Raiders. He came here to make Justin Herbert’s life easier, and so far, it worked. The Chargers had just 11 first downs, the fewest in the Herbert era. They gave Herbert 170 rushing yards while he only threw for 144, another rarity.

The passing game is a work in progress with these young receivers, but how about J.K. Dobbins rushing for 135 yards in his team debut? He even ripped off a 61-yard play. Great to see after injuries robbed him in Baltimore from more success.

But mission successful in not blowing a two-score lead in the fourth quarter. However, the Chargers got some help from new Raiders coach Antonio Pierce, a hire I was not supportive for. In his first game without the interim tag, he made a big mistake in a 16-10 game with 7:15 left. The Raiders faced a 4th-and-1 at the Los Angeles 43 and decided to punt.

I can understand the old-school philosophy there as that’s what you used to do in those situations. But with under half a quarter left, you’re looking at maybe one more possession before you start relying on all your timeouts. You also have to remember that converting 4th-and-1 is in your favor (> 50%). I think punting was a big mistake, and you have to think it won’t be the last time we see this from Pierce, the big flaw in hiring a defensive-minded coach who only sees the old ways of the game he played.

To make it worse, the defense he relies on gave up a 92-yard touchdown drive thanks to the big Dobbins run. Gardner Minshew was picked to end it, but he’s probably still their best choice for a quarterback for the rest of the year despite only 10 points in Los Angeles.

But with the way the Raiders and Broncos look, who says Harbaugh can’t steal a game against the Chiefs and possibly go 5-1 in the division to fuel a playoff berth as a wild card? That was one of my main thoughts on the Chargers all along, but after Week 1, I feel even better about it.

Broncos at Seahawks: Sean Payton on His Week 1 Shit Again

The Seahawks are going to have some elite defensive stats in this one, the debut and first win for coach Mike Macdonald. But for the second year in a row, Sean Payton went into a Week 1 and watched his quarterback put on a dink-and-dunk performance that was literally for the record books.

Fewest Passing Yards by Number of Completions in NFL history (1950-2024)

After Russell Wilson had a record-low 177 passing yards on 27 completions against the Raiders last year, rookie Bo Nix did him one better and had just 138 yards on 26 completions. That’s the fewest passing yards in a game with more than 25 completions in NFL history.

This was rough, and Nix could have easily had more than the two picks he threw as Seattle dropped several. But it’s not like he had any real help out there other than his defense coming up with a pair of safeties, something you almost never see. But Nix ended up leading the Broncos with 35 rushing yards, including a late touchdown that made it mildly interesting at 26-20.

Geno Smith had some mistakes, but he also had a 34-yard touchdown run that he couldn’t possibly have done last year when he was playing hurt. When it came to icing the game with a late third-down pass to deny Nix getting a shot at a game-winning drive, Smith found Tyler Lockett for 9 yards to end things.

Enough to be encouraged about for Seattle, but we really need to see this defense play a quarterback who knows what they’re doing. Granted, there may not be a ton of those in the league right now. But even Jacoby Brissett will be a step up in competition in New England next week.

Started to get a sense of how Nix completed over 77% of his passes at Oregon last year to set an NCAA single-season record. He’ll take literally any short completion you will give him no matter how fruitless the gain is. But you can’t end his career after one game. He’s just a rookie, albeit an older one.

Commanders at Buccaneers: It’s Probably Not 2012 in Washington Again

I guess the hope all along with Washington repeating its 2012 season success with Robert Griffin III would be a surprisingly good season from Jayden Daniels. While he did make me very happy in his debut with a 2-touchdown performance on the ground (+2200 odds), it wasn’t the kind of passing performance you wanted to see. Terry McLaurin (17 yards) barely did a thing. More than half of Daniels’ 184 passing yards went to running backs.

But he ran the ball 16 times for 88 yards and will be viable at the goal line. He just better tighten that helmet as it came loose a couple of times and nearly cost him that second touchdown. I’d be quite bitter right now if that happened.

But Dan Quinn’s defense was no real improvement on last year when they were the worst in the league under Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio. Baker Mayfield picked them apart with 24-of-30 for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns. Mike Evans caught two scores and still has WR1 skills.

Tampa had one of the most thorough and complete performances of any team this week. Not that it should be that surprising against a rebuilt Washington team with a long way to go. But it’s a very good start with Detroit up next.

Next week: Are we peaking early with Bills-Dolphins on Thursday night? Saints-Cowboys could be interesting, or it could be a blowout. Either way, we get to test the Saints right away against a non-Carolina opponent, so that’s great. Bengals-Chiefs loses some luster with the New England upset, but it’d be typical NFL for Cincinnati to win that one to avoid an 0-2 start. That Chicago offense isn’t ready for prime time, so good luck in Houston. Ditto with Kirk Cousins going to Philly on his least favorite day of the week.

NFL Week 11 Predictions: Everybody’s QB Hurts Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

The writer’s strike may have ended weeks ago, but apparently the NFL already outsourced the 2023 season’s script to ChatGPT or another AI, because we are getting 2017 all over again. First it was the low-scoring games with stats not seen since 2017 around the league, then the quarterback injuries just got too eerily similar after Deshaun Watson (shoulder) and Joe Burrow (wrist) both went down for the season this week.

I was so concerned in not going over my character limit so that this tweet would display to get the full effect that I forgot the Vikings’ QB1 is another match. The 2017 Vikings lost Sam Bradford early and had to roll to the title game with Case Keenum. Now the 2023 Vikings lost Kirk Cousins and are on a winning streak with Joshua Dobbs.

All we’re missing is the No. 1 seeded Eagles to lose their MVP front-runner to a torn ACL and watch Marcus Mariota win Super Bowl MVP after he outplays Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl 58. And Kenny Pickett and the Steelers can play the role of Jacksonville even better than 2023 Jacksonville can in the AFC Championship Game.

It’s been a rough season, but with the way contenders are dropping like flies, we just might see that Super Bowl rematch after all. We are seeing it for sure Monday night, but that might only be 1-of-2 meetings between the Eagles and Chiefs this year.

This Week’s Articles

Will Chiefs-Eagles Be the NFL’s Rare Super Bowl Rematch in February? – I did a deep dive on just how rare it is for an AFC and NFC team to meet in 3 straight seasons, and it’s still less rare than seeing two teams meet in back-to-back Super Bowls, which has only been done by 1992-93 Bills-Cowboys. But in doing the research for this one, I was absolutely shocked at just how few close calls there have been to another case of this. But I also think the Chiefs and Eagles are uniquely qualified to do it this year. The fact that they are No. 1 seeds entering Week 11 is good proof of that.

NFL Week 11 Predictions

It has always been the Ravens for me in the AFC North this year, but what a bummer of a game to lose Mark Andrews and Joe Burrow for the season. It was the best scheduled TNF game all year and that’s what happened to it. If you would have told me those injuries would happen, Lamar Jackson would go to the blue medical tent and look injured a few times himself, and the game still ended 34-20, I wouldn’t have believed it. But that ended a streak of 13 straight unders in the island games. Is this the week that turns the other way? Would be nice with the games scheduled, but I have my doubts.

Packers are my upset pick. I think they score 21+ points and it’s another close game for the Chargers.

Not sure what to do with TEN-JAX. I’m largely avoiding it but read my prop picks above to see why I’m manifesting the first Evan Engram TD catch of the season.

The Miami spread feels a little high, no? But then I looked at their 4-0 home record with every win by multiple touchdowns against scrubs and it makes more sense. I could see a 31-17 game there.

Kind of hated to pick Dallas to win big on the road since they haven’t really done that since Week 1 against the Giants. But that Carolina offense is so toothless that I just don’t see how they keep up. Dak is in a zone right now. Might be like Week 1, Cowboys finally win big on the road and Tony Pollard finally returns to the end zone.

I had a lot of success with picking games to be high scoring in the late window last week, and I think Cardinals-Texans has the potential for that. I have a nice parlay in my Scott’s Seven for this game, and you could even throw some overs for Marquise Brown and Nico Collins in there on yardage.

I might have picked the Steelers to lose to Cleveland if Watson was playing if only because I think Pickett is going to struggle with the defense on the road, and he won’t get the luxury of 2 return scores like Week 2. Then when I heard Watson was out, I still thought Cleveland because of P.J. Walker. But rookie DTR? I’m changing my pick. I’ll take Steelers to win this game, then lose to Jake Browning in his first start in Cincinnati next week. But I do really like the over for David Njoku in this game. It’s not like the Browns are going to have no yards. Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t great. They’re just timely in close games, and somehow the Steelers are drawing a schedule now with some of the only quarterbacks worse than Pickett.

I don’t trust the Commanders with a spread that big against a team they haven’t scored on in a couple of years. But I do trust Sam Howell over DeVito enough to get the win.

Definitely like Detroit to beat Chicago, and Justin Fields coming back doesn’t change my pick on the spread. I’m cautious on picking David Montgomery to have a big day since Gibbs is more established and the Bears have stopped the run well. But this is also easily the best rushing offense they’ve seen this year. I think you should work a Sam LaPorta TD into your parlays this weekend.

The 49ers crushed Tampa Bay 35-7 last year and it won’t be that bad again, but I like them to build off last week and win comfortably.

I’ll probably be keeping the Bills-Jets game out of most of my bets. Too unpredictable with Buffalo. But I could see a 24-14 game out of that one.

Not feeling Rams-Seahawks as a good betting game either. At least Stafford is back, so I’ll go with the Rams to steal another one. Return the favor for last year’s Seattle sweep.

I’m torn on SNF because I feel like Joshua Dobbs has done a great job, but Denver’s defense is legitimately improved and I could see him struggle, especially if Justin Jefferson doesn’t make his return. You need that extra wide receiver with the Broncos having Simmons and Surtain in the secondary. I still don’t believe in the Denver offense. I think it’ll be a close game and prime-time games involving Russell Wilson are usually batshit. Remember last year’s FG fest with Matt Ryan and the Colts? That was a Thursday. Remember the 6-6 OT tie with Arizona years ago? That was SNF. Take your pick with his Monday night games in Seattle, or just this Monday against Buffalo.

As for Eagles-Chiefs, I think I’ve covered the game enough in my links above at 365Scores about the Super Bowl rematch, my parlay pick, and in the prime-time pick articles. My gut feel is both teams are playing at a lower quality than they were last year, but the ways that they are different favor the Chiefs. Better on defense to keep the score low so it won’t be 38-35, Eagles not as good at running, and too reliant on A.J. Brown which could only get worse with Dallas Goedert out. That’s why I like another big DeVonta Smith game, but again, that under is 11-1 on MNF and we’ve been letdown so much by these “Game of the Year” choices in 2023. I’m rooting for a 24-20 type of game, but I am backing the Chiefs at home.

Let’s win something big this week. I feel like we’re running out of chances as I don’t want to be trying to figure out if Jake Browning can throw for 2 touchdowns in a game.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 2

~ Scott ~ 20 Comments

Now that’s more like it. After a low-scoring Week 1, the NFL got back on track with a Week 2 slate (MNF doubleheader pending) that featured:

  • 10 games with a comeback opportunity
  • 10 300-yard passers (5 in Week 1)
  • 8 games where both teams scored more than 21 points (1 in Week 1)
  • 4 double-digit comeback wins (half in the 4th quarter alone)
  • 2 overtime games
  • 1 Hail Mary touchdown that will quickly be forgotten since it ended with a loss

Also, in Week 1, half the quarterbacks (16/32) had a QBR under 45.0 at ESPN. In Week 2, only 3-of-28 quarterbacks (10.7%) had a QBR under 45.0. I don’t have an updated database of this stat, but I have to imagine 3-of-28 would make this one of the best statistical weeks for quarterback play since 2006. At the very least, a week where not many people flat out sucked.

So far, it is looking like 2023 will be a very competitive season as teams like the Rams, Colts, and Cardinals may not be the epic dumpster fires they could have been. Even the Giants went from being outscored 60-0 to scoring 31 points in a win in one half today.

In the flash in the pan NFC, the Falcons, Buccaneers, and Commanders are all 2-0, though I’m not sure any of them has real staying power this year. Five of their 6 wins have been by a game-winning drive and the one that wasn’t needed a game-clinching pick-6 in a 3-point game today. The schedule will continue helping those NFC South teams, but I’m not ready to say any of these teams have “arrived” as surprises just yet.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Ravens at Bengals: When the Quarterback Health Pendulum Swings the Other Way

I haven’t been shy all summer about making the Ravens my pick to win the AFC North, and ultimately, they were my No. 1 seed and Super Bowl pick for the 2023 season. They haven’t let me down yet, and despite the injury concerns starting to mount, they still have health at the position that matters the most: quarterback.

It cannot be ignored that the Ravens were leading the AFC North in December in 2021 and 2022 on the day where Lamar Jackson suffered an injury that would end his seasons. Cincinnati then ended up winning the division both years, and it won a wild card game against backup Tyler Huntley, who fumbled on a quarterback sneak for the deciding touchdown.

I liked Baltimore all summer, and I liked them in this game because the quarterback health pendulum in the AFC North is finally swinging their way. Joe Burrow had a calf injury in July and missed a lot of camp and practice time. He simply may not be healthy enough to be starting games, but he is anyway. Last week, he threw for 82 yards on 31 attempts.

This time, he was 8-of-11 for 35 yards at halftime as the Ravens played ball control well and led 13-10 at halftime. Cincinnati’s only touchdown was an 81-yard punt return touchdown. The offense simply didn’t show up yet for the Bengals this season.

But after a red zone interception to start the second half, things did improve for the Bengals. They engineered two long touchdown drives on their final 3 possessions, though there was a bad 3-and-out in between.

Meanwhile, Jackson showed his value in what I would call one of the best games of his career. He only threw for 237 yards and rushed for 54 yards, but his game management was excellent. The Ravens averaged 3.0 points per drive, a league-leading number most years, and that’s even with a missed field goal and a clock-killing drive to close out the win.

Jackson helped the Ravens overcome a 2nd-and-23 in the fourth quarter on a drive that ended with a touchdown to Nelson Agholor to take a 27-17 lead. Then after the Bengals pulled to within 27-24 with 3:28 left, Jackson did his job and put the game away. He scrambled for 12 yards on a big third-and-3. Burrow, who finished with under 225 yards for the fourth time since 2022 against Baltimore, never got the ball back in a one-score game in the fourth quarter.

Baltimore has blown too many games like this in recent years, but not on Sunday. Now they are 2-0 with a road win over the 0-2 Bengals, who feel in worse shape than they did a year ago when they lost two tight games with the Steelers and Cowboys before going on a run. Burrow is also saying he tweaked the calf injury too. We’ll see how he looks on Monday night against Aaron Donald and the Rams in a Super Bowl rematch.

Clearly, it’s not how you start but how you finish in this league. But as long as Jackson remains healthy and plays more from the pocket as he did in this game, the Ravens are the team to beat in the AFC North this year.

Chiefs at Jaguars: Does Kansas City Have… a Defense?

Given what this game could have been and what it was, this was my dud of the week. I thought Jacksonville would make it more interesting after getting swept last year. Patrick Mahomes wasn’t on a high-ankle sprain, Travis Kelce was back, and Calvin Ridley was here to make a difference for Jacksonville at home.

Yet, the Chiefs had 12 penalties for 94 yards, turned it over 3 times, and they still won 17-9.

Wait, 26 points? It’s tied for the second-lowest scoring game involving Mahomes in his career. The lowest was 13-7 against the 2021 Packers in Jordan Love’s first start. The total was 51 points, so the 25 points under the total was the 5th-largest under performance in a game with Mahomes.

Mahomes targeted 11 different receivers in the first half, which felt like overkill for a team that searches for reliable targets. Kelce barely looked like a factor in his return until he caught a touchdown in the second half.

But had the Chiefs stopped nuking drives with penalties and taken better care of the ball – add another muffed punt, fumbled completion, and Mahomes was picked on an overthrown deep ball – this would have been a rout.

But that’s why they call it gambling. Just this week I wrote on another site about trusting your gut and doubling down on picks from week to week in this league. I then completely ignored myself.

In Week 1, I faded Calvin Ridley in his first game since 2021 in favor of Christian Kirk, the reliable target for Trevor Lawrence he built great chemistry with. Of course, Kirk had 1 catch for 9 yards while Ridley torched the Colts for 8/101/1.

Instead of doubling down on Kirk, I switched to Ridley for my week’s biggest parlay, thinking he would make a difference and have 60+ yards for the Jaguars in this game (O/U 72.5). Of course, Kirk caught 11-of-14 for 110 yards while Lawrence was 2-of-8 for 36 yards to Ridley. They just could not finish plays together, and that ended up being my only losing leg on a parlay I didn’t hedge. FML.

Lawerence was only 22-of-41 for 216 yards in what I would say was his worst passing game against the Chiefs yet. Chris Jones had 1.5 sacks in his return, including a big stop on a fourth down early in the game. That did not help Jacksonville’s efforts, but compared to 2022, they went backwards on offense in this rivalry, and it does not look like they are ready to step up to the big boys in 2023. This game was only moderately close because of Kansas City’s self-inflicted mistakes with all the false starts and turnovers.

Also, just like last week against Detroit, it is wild what teams do against Mahomes out of fear. The Jaguars were down 17-9 and instead of kicking a 34-yard field goal with 4:18 left (time plus 4 clock stoppages in hand), they went for a 4th-and-12 at the Kansas City 16. Not a 4th-and-2 but a 4th-and-12. I’m not sure about that one, especially when you are down 8 and would need another possession and score anyway to win this game. If you don’t think you can stop Mahomes again, then you’re losing the game regardless. I probably kick the field goal there, especially since Lawrence’s accuracy was poor.

Sure enough, Lawrence threw incomplete to Ridley (FML) and that was that. Mahomes added to his quickly growing legacy of being the best quarterback ever in the 4-minute offense. He scrambled 14 yards for a first down, then on a pivotal 3rd-and-6 with 2:03 left, he improvised and found Skyy Moore with a deep ball for a 54-yard gain to essentially ice this one. The running game picked up one more first down to make sure it ended 17-9.

The Chiefs go into the history books again, not losing any of their last 35 games by more than 4 points.

But with games against the Bears and Jets up next, the storyline of the Chiefs having an elite defense in 2023 should continue into October. We’ll see if that holds true when the tougher tests come up later in the season. But if you get the offense back to firing on all cylinders and actually sustain a great defensive performance, then I’m not sure anyone is beating this team this year.

They are playing C+ caliber games and were a Kadarius Toney drop away from being 2-0 against a pair of division favorites.

Dolphins at Patriots: Good Enough to Lose Close – Part 2

Same headline as last week for New England, which is 0-2 for the first time since 2001 after losing to another contender at home in a one-score game. But in many ways, it was an old-school Patriots game:

  • Bill Belichick’s defense helped contain the hottest passing duo from last week, holding Tua Tagovailoa to 249 yards and only 40 for Tyreek Hill.
  • He did this at the expense of allowing Miami to get more from its ground game, which would have been fine if not for a 43-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter by Raheem Mostert.
  • The Patriots blocked a 49-yard field goal in the third quarter.
  • Rookie corner Christian Gonzalez came away with an interception in the fourth quarter when the Dolphins were at midfield with a first down.
  • An aborted snap by Miami killed a 3rd-and-1, then the Dolphins missed a 55-yard field goal that would have given them a 10-point lead with 2:14 left to all but ice it, leaving the door open for the Patriots.

But instead of a touchdown drive, the Patriots still had to put Mac Jones on the field with a bunch of No. 2 and No. 3 wideouts (at best). Bradley Chubb made his presence felt with a huge sack that set up a 2nd-and-18, which the Patriots never recovered from.

On a 4th-and-4 at Miami’s 33, Jones had to hurry a pass under pressure, and it was caught well short of the sticks. The Patriots sunk their 2022 season with an ill-advised lateral in Vegas, but this time the lateral was necessary. It almost worked too, but the offensive lineman was reviewed to come up inches short of the first down. Game over.

Just like last week against Philadelphia, the Patriots were inches away from converting a fourth down on a potential game-winning touchdown drive. I think it is possible the Patriots would have gone for 2 and the win here, but we’ll never know as they came up short again.

It wasn’t the kind of performance that should be vaulting the Dolphins up the lists of power rankings, Super Bowl odds, or Tagovailoa for MVP. But it was good enough for a win against a team that used to be harder to beat. Alas, Tagovailoa is the first quarterback to win 5 straight games against Belichick. He hasn’t played the best against his defense by any means, but this is where the AFC East is now in the 2020s.

Chargers at Titans: Nothing Has Changed for the Chargers

Chargers coach Brandon Staley wanted no part of hearing about the Jacksonville playoff loss after the Chargers fell to 0-2 with another blown lead.

Technically, Staley is right that a January playoff loss is not the reason the Chargers lost these last two games in the 2023 season. However, I don’t think he gets to avoid this narrative as his team continues to blow games it seemed to have in hand, and his defense continues to suck with the game on the line.

I would pose these questions to Staley.

Why is it Year 3 and every game still comes down to you relying on Justin Herbert to perform miracles and make sure the defense doesn’t have to come back on the field to blow it?

You say your roster has finishers, yet why aren’t any of them on defense, your specialty? In Herbert’s 5 game-winning drives last season, this is how much time was left on the clock so that your defense couldn’t find a way to blow it:

  • 4 seconds vs. Titans
  • 15 seconds vs. Cardinals
  • 0 seconds vs. Falcons
  • Walk-off in overtime vs. Broncos
  • 9:29 vs. Browns, who later missed a game-winning 53-yard field goal with 0:11 left

Congrats on the missed field goal. Your defense hasn’t produced a legitimate stop to preserve a close win since forcing the Steelers into a 4th-and-32 in 2021. By the way, that was the game you blew a 27-10 lead in the fourth quarter of, and you again relied on a Herbert touchdown pass to regain the lead.

The Titans couldn’t throw last week in New Orleans, and yet Ryan Tannehill almost couldn’t miss in Week 2 against this defense. He was 20-of-24 for 246 yards with his below-average receivers. The only issue was taking 5 sacks as the revamped line was missing rookie first-round pick Peter Skoronski.

But once again, the Chargers were in a dogfight after leading 11-0 early. Herbert’s second touchdown pass to Keenan Allen gave the Chargers a 21-17 lead with 14:38 left. On the next drive, the Chargers ran the ball on 3rd-and-4 and punted on a 4th-and-2 at their own 42. Weren’t you the 4th-down guy for a hot minute in 2021?

Later, the Titans scored a go-ahead touchdown, which was answered by a game-tying field goal to force overtime by the Chargers. Short throws and a big 3rd-down sack by Harold Landry kept the Chargers out of the end zone from the game-winning touchdown.

In overtime, Herbert threw three straight incompletions as the team missed Austin Ekeler against a Tennessee defense that loves shutting the run down. The Titans had no issues moving into range for Nick Folk to hit a 41-yard field goal to win the game 27-24.

The Chargers have lost 4 straight games, and this was actually the first time they allowed fewer than 30 points during this stretch.

At this rate, Staley will soon learn what a finisher looks like on the Chargers. It will be the person who takes him to an empty room to see the boss.

Jets at Cowboys: Back to Reality

There was a lot of wishful thinking that the Jets could salvage this season after losing Aaron Rodgers and upsetting the Bills on Monday night. But either the Cowboys are too good, or the Jets are going to be awful, because this 30-10 rout was tough to watch. The Jets basically made one play on offense, a 68-yard touchdown pass to Garrett Wilson. Otherwise, Zach Wilson was 11-of-26 for 102 yards and 3 picks.

At least the picks didn’t happen until it was 27-10 in the fourth quarter, but the Jets failed this game in the sense that they couldn’t even be competitive as the “run the ball and play great defense” team they need to be with Wilson at quarterback.

Wilson ended up accounting for 36 of the team’s 64 rushing yards. You would have thought Breece Hall could have been leaned on, but he had 4 carries for 9 yards. The fuck is that?

Defensively, the Jets forced 0 turnovers, allowed 9-of-18 on third down, and Dak Prescott (31-of-38 for 255 yards) generally did what he wanted to. CeeDee Lamb caught 11-of-13 targets for 143 yards, so it’s not like you can’t throw on these guys like they’re the 2009 Jets or something.

With 15 more Jets games to go, it’s really a shame what happened to Rodgers. This team’s brutal early schedule was going to be tough with him, but there are going to be more ugly days ahead for this team.

Dallas, my Super Bowl pick in the NFC, is looking great at 70-10 on the scoreboard, only the 7th team since 1970 to be at least plus-60 through two games. But it will be nice to see them play a real team who can hit back instead of these New York punching bags.

Oh shit, they get Arizona next too. At least they face the 49ers in Week 5. With the Eagles not impressive so far, the Cowboys and 49ers may be the best in the NFC this season.

49ers at Rams: Shanahan Continues Mastery of McVay

The 49ers have the most talented offense in the NFL and look like the most complete team so far. But after this 30-23 win, I think it’s safe to say the No. 1 thought on the minds of football fans is can Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua co-exist on the Rams and build the greatest receiving duo of all time? All these guys do is get open and catch the ball, so imagine if there were two of them.

Nacua did it again, going over 10 catches and 100 yards for the second week in a row, the only player to ever start his career like that. His 15 catches are a single-game rookie record. He also has 25 catches in his first two games, shattering Earl Cooper’s record of 19 for the 1980 49ers. Before you credit Joe Montana for running Bill Walsh’s innovative West Coast Offense for that record, it was actually Steve DeBerg at quarterback in those games. Incredibly, Cooper was just a fullback (later converted to tight end) and only caught 213 passes in 93 games in his career.

But this surprising rise of a 5th-round rookie in Nacua, who only caught 107 passes in 4 years of college football at Washington and BYU, can only be surpassed by the continued success of Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant.

Purdy is the only quarterback in NFL history to go 10-0 in the first 10 games where he threw at least 20 passes. He did not have a touchdown pass in this one, but he led the offense effectively again, and he ran for a big game-tying touchdown before halftime with 1 second left where failure would have meant no points.

The second half looked closer to last year when the 49ers harassed Stafford into sacks and turnovers. They did it again, picking off a pair of passes. The big one came with the Rams down 27-20 with 4:58 left. While the 49ers went three-and-out after that pick, they were already in the red zone and added a field goal for a 30-20 lead.

Eventually, the Rams ended up kicking a 38-yard field goal on the final snap that only accomplished screwing over bettors who had 49ers -7.5 in this 30-23 final.

The Rams did not have a play longer than 20 yards, but you have to hope they can get Kupp and Nacua going together in a few weeks. Stafford’s ability to lock onto a receiver may be unmatched seeing as how the only two 1,900-yard receivers in NFL history (Calvin Johnson and Cooper Kupp) had Stafford at quarterback. It can be a blessing and a curse but imagine if he finds a way to use both receivers together.

Despite the loss, Rams fans should feel better about this season than they did two weeks ago. McVay can still coach, but unfortunately, Shanahan continues getting the best of him.

Commanders at Broncos: Did They Hire the 7-9 Version of Sean Payton?

When the Broncos were up 21-3, I figured I could get away with a single paragraph recap of how Sean Payton got Russell Wilson to hit some deep balls with his new toy (Marvin Mims), and it was an easy first win for Denver. But nope, they blew a league-high 7th fourth-quarter lead since 2022. The 18-point blown lead is the largest in Wilson’s career, and he took 7 sacks and his lost fumble in the second quarter was the turning of the tide in this one.

Washington hung in there with Sam Howell passing for 299 yards against what was supposed to be a strong secondary. The Commanders seemed to get stronger after Logan Thomas took a cheap shot from Kareem Jackson on a fourth-and-goal touchdown before halftime to cut the lead to 21-11. Denver’s offense continued to fall apart from there while the Commanders were able to take the lead for good early in the fourth quarter just as they did a week ago against the Cardinals.

Denver hurt itself with another penalty to wipe out a three-and-out, which Washington turned into a touchdown drive and 35-24 lead. The Wilson-led offense took a while to get a field goal to make it 35-27, then used timeouts to get the ball back with 48 seconds, needing 87 yards.

It will go down as a forgotten one-minute drill that worked out for a touchdown after an incredible tipped Hail Mary was caught from 50 yards out with no time left. But instead of forcing the third overtime game of the day, the Broncos had a specific play design that needed to go to Courtland Sutton, and Wilson’s pass was not caught.

I think you could easily argue defensive pass interference, which would have put the ball at the 1-yard line and a retry. But story of Payton’s career, he couldn’t get an obvious DPI flag in a big spot.

After losing winnable home games to the Raiders and Commanders and going to Miami next, the Broncos could easily be staring at an 0-3 start.

Giants at Cardinals: Was That Tanking?

The battle for New York’s worst football team was in rare form with the Giants doing their best to topple the Jets, who were simultaneously getting crushed by Dallas. Always nice to see something you’ve never seen before, and the Giants did that for those of us born after Alien came out in 1979.

The 2023 Giants were outscored 60-0 through six quarters of action this year. That has only been topped since the 1970 merger by the 1978 Baltimore Colts, who were outscored 86-0 early into Game 3 of their season before they finally got on the board. Worse, the Cardinals were the team doing this to New York. The same Cardinals who are projected to finish with the worst record and No. 1 pick.

But for a half, the Cardinals didn’t seem interested in Caleb Williams. Not when Josh Dobbs was running through defenders on a 23-yard touchdown run. But while we were making fun of the Giants, a switch appeared to be flipped at halftime. These teams came out much differently, and the Giants were able to explode for 31 points in the second half alone to come back and win the game after trailing 28-7 with 9:34 left in the third quarter.

My criticism of Jonathan Gannon’s defense in Philadelphia was that good, smart quarterbacks could tear his scheme apart with quick, short passes. Suddenly, that pass rush doesn’t get there at all, and the coverage is soft as he just wants to avoid the big plays. Well, the Giants immediately came out in the third and hit a 58-yard bomb to rookie speedster Jalin Hyatt. It also hurts when you don’t have players like Haason Reddick, Fletcher Cox, and Darius Slay to make your defense better.

Daniel Jones added a few occasional scrambles, but he basically picked apart the Cardinals on his way to 321 yards passing. He was only sacked 3 times for 9 yards, so the pass rush did not repeat the success it had against Washington last week.

The Cardinals were a missed field goal away from scoring on their first 6 drives, but they were scoreless on the final 4 drives. While James Conner had a big game with over 100 rushing yards, it is hard to say it didn’t look like this team was mailing it in and accepting defeat after the Giants tied it at 28.

With 4:25 left, the Cardinals went 1-yard Conner run, 3-yard Conner run, back-to-back false starts on the same player, and then a failed completion for 5 yards before a three-and-out punt. Weak.

Jones drove the Giants into field goal range from there and Graham Gano was good from 34 yards away with only 19 seconds left. Dobbs’ Hail Mary was knocked away incomplete and the game was over.

Maybe the Cardinals are not going to be 2-15 bad after blowing a pair of 4th-quarter leads to start this season. But when you look at the schedule, they might not win until November now after blowing this opportunity.

But maybe that’s perfectly fine with this franchise.

Seahawks at Lions: Detroit Better Hope This Isn’t Another Tie-Breaker

These teams play fun games. Last year, it was a 48-45 shootout, but this one was better since there were actually lead changes. Seattle led wire-to-wire last year, and that win was the main reason the 9-8 record was good enough for the No. 7 seed ahead of Detroit. The Lions better hope that doesn’t happen again after losing another winnable home game to this team.

The best quarterback duel of Week 2 was naturally Geno Smith vs. Jared Goff as everyone expected. Both were sharp, but Goff’s pick-six, which ended a nearly 400-attempt streak without a pick, looked like it would doom the Lions, putting them in a 31-21 hole with 8:04 left.

But Goff came right back to lead a touchdown drive, then Smith took a horrific sack on a third down back to his own 3, helping to set Goff up at the 50 with 1:44 left. However, Seattle’s defense held after it seemed like Detroit was content with overtime.

The Seahawks won the toss and received first. Just like the team used to do best in the early days of Russell Wilson a decade ago, the offense drove right down the field for a game-winning touchdown to end it without the opponent having a chance. Tyler Lockett’s second touchdown of the day secured the 37-31 win.

In the end, the right team won. The Lions were minus-3 in turnovers and turned it over on downs twice. The Seahawks missed 2 field goals in the second quarter too.

There is some “live by the sword, die by the sword” with coach Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness. Should the Lions have gone for it on a 4th-and-2 at their own 45 while leading 21-17 with 32 seconds left in the third quarter? They failed and the Seahawks only had to go 45 yards for the go-ahead touchdown, which they scored. Traditionally, teams punt there, hope to back them up, and protect the lead. Get the job done on your next offensive possession, and it’s not like points were guaranteed on a first down at midfield if you convert.

But it is what it is. The Lions are 1-1, winning a game they easily could have lost and losing a game they could have easily won. They just better hope they remain the team to beat in the NFC North and don’t have to compete with Seattle for another wild card tie-breaker.

Packers at Falcons: Hamstrung in Atlanta

The Falcons made this a lot harder than it needed to be. The spread swung from Falcons +1.5 to Falcons -3 due to the Packers not having their best running back (Aaron Jones), best wide receiver (Christian Watson), and best offensive lineman (David Bakhtiari). Even though Jordan Love was again very aggressive, he avoided any picks, but he did throw for just 151 yards. His running game only hooked him up with 61 yards, so the loss of Jones was crucial.

Running powered the Atlanta offense again with 211 yards on the ground, though Desmond Ridder did run for 39 yards and a huge touchdown himself on a 4th-down call while the Falcons trailed 24-12 in the fourth quarter. He also threw for 237 yards this week.

The red zone is where Atlanta made life difficult on themselves (2-for-5 on touchdowns). The offense was fortunate the defense held Green Bay without a first down on its 3 possessions in the fourth quarter.

Head coach Arthur Smith also made quite the gambling by going for a 4th-and-1 at the Green Bay 23 with 2:08 left in a 24-22 game. Granted, no one wants to kick a field goal and give an offense nearly 2 full minutes to get a game-winning field goal. But a failure there on a quick snap and there was a fair chance he’d never see the ball again. It almost looked like Smith would go for it again on a fourth down to really ice the game and make the field goal the last snap, but he kicked the 25-yard field goal with 57 seconds left.

Still, that is plenty of time to get into range these days, but Love was unable to get a first down. His pass on 4th down was not bad, but the receiver looked like he trapped it, so it was ruled incomplete. Even if he caught it, an illegal shift penalty would have negated the gain and set up 4th-and-15.

Fun win for Atlanta but being the home team and taking on a team without three of its best players definitely helped this week.

Bears at Buccaneers: Justin Fields Is Not a Serious QB

I find it hard to believe Justin Fields’ average time to throw was 3.03 seconds, the 6th-slowest time in Week 2 (source: Next Gen Stats). Every time I saw a clip of him today he was holding the ball forever and taking awful sacks. He ended up taking 6 sacks and the running game was held in check again with only 67 yards, including just 3 from Fields despite his short touchdown run.

While D.J. Moore had 104 yards and Chase Claypool showed up to catch a touchdown, it was still a poor offensive performance. The Buccaneers won out in yards 437-236, but it was still only a 20-17 game with 2:24 left.

Like last year, Fields only needed a field goal and couldn’t get in position. He tried to throw a screen pass to his running back and Shaq Barrett made a great play to snatch the ball for a pick-six.

You can certainly give credit to the defender for blowing this up, but that looked like a play that was going to gain no positive yards anyway. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield efficiently threw for 317 yards with 171 of them going to Mike Evans. The Buccaneers have scored 20 points in back-to-back games, something they did once all last season with the King of Kings at quarterback.

It was my prediction that Mayfield would outplay Tom Brady this year, but the Bucs would have a worse record because of what will happen in close games without the LOAT. That could still happen. Plus, beating up on the Bears and Vikings (two awful defenses in 2022) is not the best argument for this being anything but fool’s gold. But Mayfield is making this work so far.

Raiders at Bills: Buffalo Can Take a Deep Breath

Bills fans may have been nervous after the Raiders marched right down the field for a touchdown to start the game. But that was the highlight of the day for Vegas. Josh Allen played a very safe, controlled, and efficient game (31-of-37 for 274 yards and 3 TD) and spread the ball around well. The run defense held Josh Jacobs to -2 yards on 9 carries. They intercepted Jimmy Garoppolo twice, including a play where Matt Milano just flat out stole the ball from Jacobs. James Cook ran for 123 yards even if he padded a bit with a 36-yard run while the Bills led 38-10 at the two-minute warning.

But it was an all-around dominant team performance from the Bills, who might still be the biggest threat to the Chiefs in getting back to the Super Bowl. We’ll see how Baltimore and Cincinnati shake out.

Colts at Texans: Steichen’s First Win

When the Colts hired Shane Steichen and drafted Anthony Richardson, the logical connection was always that he could develop him on the Jalen Hurts curve that he did in Philadelphia. But maybe something a lot of us forgot here is that this means Richardson could be an effective goal-line rusher and score a lot of touchdowns like Hurts did last year on his way to a record.

I noticed it right away in Week 1 when it looked like Richardson was going to score 2 rushing touchdowns against Jacksonville before he left the game injured on the last drive. That is why Richardson to score twice (+1400 at FanDuel) was one of my favorite props this week. I just didn’t expect him to score on runs of 18 and 15 yards in the game’s first 5:47.

I also didn’t think he’d leave the game with a concussion suffered on the second one.

It is not a good sign at all that Richardson was unable to finish either of his first two games, but for what little we have seen, the potential is exciting. Even Hurts only has 3-of-33 career touchdown runs from longer than 10 yards out, so Richardson exploding like that looked closer to a young Vince Young (2006) or Lamar Jackson (2019). Just hope he can stay healthy, but Gardner Minshew was a heck of an addition as someone who can step in and sling it in a familiar system. Minshew only entered the game at 12:45 in the second quarter and still passed for 114 yards in the quarter, which is almost as many as Joe Burrow had for Cincinnati in his first six quarters this year (117).

As for Houston, it was a tough day with most of the starting offensive line out and no help from the running game from C.J. Stroud, who took 6 sacks and had to play from a double-digit deficit almost the entire game. But even in that suboptimal situation, he was 30-of-47 for 384 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no picks. He did lose one of two fumbles, similar to last week. But it is a good learning experience for the rookie.

After not getting a win over Houston last year, the Colts should feel more optimistic about the Steichen era after Sunday’s 31-20 win. But for a fanbase that has seen health problems end the tenures of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, it is a worrisome start for Richardson in that area.

Next week: Not looking great.

NFL Week 2 Predictions: Playoff Revenge Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The NFL’s Week 2 schedule already features some heavyweight matchups, but are these teams playing well enough for these games to be as good as possible? We are already seeing major injury concerns for several teams, which is unfortunate at such an early point in the year.

But one of my favorite stats this week is that the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals are all 0-1 after entering the season as the Super Bowl favorites in their conference. That has not happened since the NFC did it in 1982, and none of the Cowboys, 49ers, or Rams made the Super Bowl (won by Washington). Of course, it ended up being a 9-game strike season after the players went on strike following Week 2, so maybe that’s not the best comparison to make this year. All I know is the Chiefs (drops) and Bills (turnovers) largely had self-inflicted losses against teams that had serious playoff aspirations. The Bengals did their annual disappearing act against the Browns, but 24-3 and Joe Burrow passing for 82 yards feels like something potentially different this time. We’ll see if the Ravens, my Super Bowl pick, can capitalize this week.

Bengals-Ravens is just one of the big matchups this week. The Jaguars will also try to get playoff revenge on the Chiefs after adding Calvin Ridley to hopefully have the firepower necessary to deal with that team, which should be getting Travis Kelce and Chris Jones back. The Lions can also get some revenge on the Seahawks for last year’s 48-45 loss that provided the tie-breaker for Seattle to get the No. 7 seed.

This week’s articles:

Week 1 Story: Why were offenses so bad in Week 1? I look at everything from the injuries, rain, high number of division games, and the main culprit being the historic lack of experienced quarterbacks starting for teams they have multiple years of experience with.

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 2 at 365Scores – I’m pissed I went 0-7 on this last week when so many of my other articles were strong (6-1 on prime-time picks, 5-1 on computer picks, 2-1 on best bets, and 6-4 on player props)

NFL Week 2 Predictions

I’m taking the push for TNF because the article I wrote Wednesday night had a pick of Eagles -6, and I should have knew something fishy was going on when it was changing to -5.5 on FanDuel just before kickoff. Having said that, the Eagles covered Week 1 in NE when they really didn’t play well enough to deserve it, and they wouldn’t have deserved it in this game either. The Vikings lost 4 fumbles, including one of those stupid through the end zone plays, and the Eagles again looked rough in the passing game outside of two bombs to DeVonta Smith. But they are 2-0. The secondary is just lacking with lost players and injuries right now.

Home favorites are only 2-8-1 ATS this year. Rough start.

I found myself liking the regression there with these first four picks, but really I just liked Atlanta all week with Green Bay’s hamstring injuries, the Lions to light up Seattle, the Bills to get right against the Raiders, and I am fading Chicago after last week’s garbage performance.

Then by the time I got to the Tennessee game I figured I need to throw an upset in there as I just feel like that is a tricky game for the Chargers, who are unlikely to have Austin Ekeler. They probably wouldn’t run much on the Titans anyway because of that defensive scheme, but really my favorite picks for that game are the under 45.5 and the over in Herbert’s pass attempts (38.5).

Last year the Colts couldn’t beat the Texans, but I’m just basing things off what I saw in Week 1 and I feel like Richardson can move his offense better than Stroud and use his legs for a win. I really like Richardson anytime TD scorer again this week.

Big AFC games: I’m going with the Ravens and Chiefs in close ones. Maybe 27-24 for Kansas City and 23-20 for Baltimore. I just don’t think Joe Burrow is healthy enough on that calf and he was not effective against the Ravens last year. It sucks that Baltimore already has a lot of injuries, but it sounds like Mark Andrews is playing. Most importantly, Lamar is there, and it’s time this team gets to have him in a big game. As for the Jaguars, I like what Ridley adds to the offense, but I’ m still going to trust the Chiefs with their other 2 elite players back.

Good win for the Rams last week but McVay has been owned by Shanahan outside of one quarter since 2019. I really like Brock Purdy to throw over 1.5 TDs again, something he’s done in 8-of-9 games when he throws 20+ passes. Remember, the Rams were a defense Garoppolo usually had good numbers against. Now the Rams have Aaron Donald and a lot of random starters. I like Purdy to keep rolling here and Stafford to not get the same protection he had in Seattle.

NYG-ARI is a toilet bowl I wouldn’t put much money on. Brian Daboll is 7-0 ATS after a loss, but after seeing how Arizona sacked Sam Howell 6 times and what the Giants did, I’m at least hedging my bets and having the Giants escaping with a 1-to-4 point win in that one. They could lose it too. You don’t really think Arizona is going 0-17 yet do you? They almost clipped Washington last week.

NYJ-DAL is the other New York trap game after what happened last week. Obviously, Dallas should roll to an easy win over Zach Wilson, but something about trusting the NY defense here makes me think it’ll at least be close as long as Wilson does not gift them turnovers. It’s not like Dallas was on fire offensively in Week 1. I also remember Sam Darnold beating Dallas in another year with big playoff expectations. If anyone is capable of screwing this up, it’s Dallas.

Coin flips for DEN & MIA games but I like Jerry Jeudy coming back and the NE OL is really injured. Mostly just curious to see if Belichick holds Tyreek under 100 again on SNF.

Monday double-header: I think the Saints get their first game-winning drive from Derek Carr and the Panthers lose a 52nd straight game when trailing in the 4th quarter. As for the Pittsburgh game, my best bet is Steelers over 9.5 1H points. They can’t be worse than last week, right? I’m picking them for the upset too just out of history. The Steelers have won 20 straight home games on MNF (9-0 under Tomlin). They usually deliver as a home underdog, last week aside, but I also think the 49ers are way better than Cleveland. Maybe T.J. Watt can force Watson into strip-sacks that set up short fields for the offense. But if the Steelers implode in this one then I’m quickly fading them going forward.

I did say watch them go from being the hottest offense in August to one of the worst in September when real games are played.

But I’ll be back Monday morning with the recap of Sunday’s action.

NFL Stat Oddity: 2022 Conference Championship Games

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

After 283 games, the 2022 NFL season will still come down to a battle of No. 1 seeds with 16-3 records. The Philadelphia Eagles crushed the San Francisco 49ers 31-7, and the Kansas City Chiefs outlasted the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20.

I hate going against my gut – 49ers-Bengals was last Sunday’s initial pick – but working on these games all week changed my mind multiple times. By Saturday when I posted my final score predictions, I was able to nail the proper framing too.

Turnovers from the quarterback position did in the 49ers on the road, though I never imagined Josh Johnson to be part of the story. San Francisco finishes the season 0-5 with multiple turnovers and 15-0 without multiple turnovers.

The Chiefs exposed the backups on Cincinnati’s main weakness, the offensive line, and they made Joe Burrow pay with five sacks and shut down the run. Chris Jones stepped up with his fair pair of playoff sacks and even the special teams showed up late to help Patrick Mahomes and the offense on a day where health was in short supply.

What does it mean for Super Bowl 57?

  • We will not see the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to start a Super Bowl after Brock Purdy injured his elbow on just his third dropback of the game.
  • We will not see a team on a 13-game winning streak (49ers) take on a team on an 11-game winning streak (Bengals) as both teams lost on the road.
  • We will get the Andy Reid Bowl. The Kelce Bowl. The best quarterback vs. the No. 1 pass defense. Plenty of time to talk about that one the next two weeks.

So, let’s recap a Championship Sunday that had one massive disappointment and one great game that really cements Bengals-Chiefs as the top rivalry in the NFL right now.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Bengals at Chiefs: The Rivalry Is On After Chiefs Survive Thriller

After how terrible the NFC game was, you had to hope we were in store for something good here as these teams only seem to know how to play 3-point games against each other.

This was the least-efficient offensive game between the two, but the intensity and stakes were never higher. Last year, the Bengals were more of a curiosity than a confident team playing in the championship game. They proved they could come back again from a big deficit against these Chiefs. Then for the first time in this series in Week 13 this year, they showed they can control the game too and again close out the win by outplaying the Chiefs in the fourth quarter.

But this time, the Bengals outscored the Chiefs in the fourth quarter and still lost after Kansas City got the full team effort it needed to survive this one. While I still would have drafted wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase over offensive tackle Penei Sewell, a game like this does push the needle in favor of the line over receivers when it comes to building around a great quarterback talent.

The Bengals were unfortunately down three offensive line starters for the second week in a row, but unlike in snowy Buffalo without Von Miler, those chickens came home to roost again with Burrow taking five sacks and the running backs held to 13 carries for 41 yards. When your offense is one-dimensional and the protection is that bad, it gets harder to take advantage of the injuries the Chiefs suffered on defense, including their best corner (L’Jarius Sneed) four plays into the game and linebacker Willie Gay.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs came into the week with  Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain hogging all the injury coverage, then a Friday practice back injury for Travis Kelce popped up, and during the game, the Chiefs lost JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, and Mecole Hardman at wide receiver. The Chiefs only gave Mahomes 17 carries for 34 yards in run support in this game.

This team was running on fumes by the end of the game, but Mahomes and Kelce are just exceptional talents and they got just enough help from the rest of the team to pull this one out.

The First Quarter: Lucky It Wasn’t KC 14-0

The Chiefs came out hot with three sacks on the first two drives, including the first sack of Chris Jones’ postseason career. Somehow it took him 14 games to break through, but he picked the best time as I thought he might with the deficiencies the Bengals have. He even did it on a third down and made sure to hold Burrow up and not take him down to draw an egregious penalty.

On offense, things were looking like business as usual for Mahomes and Kelce, who showed no glaring signs of injury like you may have expected after last week and Kelce getting a game-time decision tag. Kelce even tried a designed lateral to Jerick McKinnon in the field of play in the first quarter. The ball was a little off, but McKinnon fortunately got on it for the recovery.

But missed opportunities were a big theme for the Chiefs early. Kadarius Toney could not come down with a 25-yard touchdown on a third down on the opening drive on a well-thrown ball, and the Chiefs wasted a challenge on that call.

Isiah Pacheco showed great effort on a 9-yard touchdown run that was wiped out by a holding penalty, and the Chiefs had to settle for a second field goal and 6-0 lead one play into the second quarter.

The Second Quarter: More Missed Opportunities for Chiefs

Maybe Burrow needed to warm up his LOAT magic on a very cold night, because he took his fourth sack on a ninth dropback and was facing third-and-14. But he converted to Tyler Boyd, who also had a 24-yard catch two plays later before eventually leaving the game with an injury too.

But that drive also ended with a field goal after Hayden Hurst was unable to come down with a nice pass in the end zone not much unlike the Chiefs’ miss with Toney on their first drive. It was 6-3.

The Chiefs ended up getting a fantastic, season-best game out of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, the mistake-prone No. 2 receiver from Green Bay. He had back-to-back plays gain 40 yards, and he finished with 116 yards and a touchdown.

But after Mahomes took a sack he may have normally escaped, it was fourth-and-1. Instead of throwing into the flat, Mahomes held the ball and was able to find Kelce in the end zone for a 14-yard shot to take a 13-3 lead.

Just when you think it may not be Cincy’s day, Burrow threw a pick and the Chiefs could have gone up 20-3 in the first half not much unlike last year’s game before losing it in overtime. But Mahomes threw three incompletions from the Cincinnati 39 and the Chiefs punted on a surprisingly weak three-and-out.

Burrow then tried to throw deep and it was intercepted on a deflection, but that was negated by a 20-yard penalty on the defense. Was this the beginning of the comeback? The Bengals got a two-minute drive going and Tee Higgins was the big target with a 21-yard catch down to the Kansas City 5 with the clock going under 20 seconds.

This is where I think Burrow screwed up. Instead of quickly lining up for a spike and saving a solid 10-11 seconds for two shots into the end zone, he went for the fade on first down, and it was a rushed, poor throw that had no shot of scoring. That wasted too much time, and Burrow’s next pass was also incomplete with 4 seconds left. They had to kick the field goal at that point and trail 13-6 at the half. I think either spike on first down or save the timeout he used earlier in the drive. Somewhere, a spike should have happened to give them more valid shots at the end zone.

But it was only 13-6 and you could sense some disappointment that the Chiefs were not up much more after all the opportunities in that half.

The Third Quarter: The Turning Point (Burrow Willed It)

So much for the Chiefs coming out hot to make up for the last offensive series. They went three-and-out again.

Like he did last year in the title game, Burrow, who led the game with 30 rushing yards, showed some good scrambling skills on a third down, then he finished the drive with a 27-yard touchdown pass to Tee Higgins to tie the game. Just a perfect throw to a spot where only the best No. 2 wideout in the game could get it over two defenders.

Now we had a game, and the game had a turning point. The Chiefs had gone 60 minutes of real time without a first down before Mahomes scrambled and found Hardman on a third-and-4 with a strike for 11 yards. But not only did Hardman get injured and left the game on this play, but Mahomes likely aggravated his ankle injury and was hobbling around after the play:

Ouch. Two plays later, Mahomes hung in the pocket with good protection and threw to an uncovered MVS, who charged ahead for 25 yards. MVS would later stretch the ball out on a third-down play to get just enough forward progress to convert and extend the drive after the Chiefs used their final challenge.

After Mahomes took a sack, it was third-and-10. He hung in there and delivered perhaps his best bullet of the night with a 19-yard touchdown strike to MVS in the end zone to give the Chiefs a 20-13 lead.

Mahomes gutted it out on that drive, but after the Bengals went three-and-out, the Chiefs blew another golden opportunity to go up two scores going into the final quarter.

First, you rarely ever seen an offensive lineman penalized for taunting, but that happened to Andrew Wylie, which wasted 15 of the 25 yards the Chiefs gained on another third-down conversion to MVS. But after reaching the Cincinnati 46, Mahomes had his worst moment of the game when he mishandled the ball on a throw, and it fell out of his hands for his first career playoff fumble lost:

This is when you really do start believing that Burrow has that Brady luck in him after seeing such an unforced error like that at midfield. Playoff hero Sam Hubbard got on the ball of course.

But the Bengals had a decision to make after the Chiefs massacred Samaje Perine on a third-down catch to end the quarter and bring up a fourth-and-6 at the Kansas City 41.

The Fourth Quarter: Frantic Finish

Hard to disagree with going for it here, and Burrow just threw it up for Chase, who came down with it in coverage for 35 yards, the only 30-yard play in the game. Just a great receiver and a confident quarterback. Perine finished the drive in the end zone and the game was tied at 20. It is the first fourth-quarter touchdown drive led by Burrow in a playoff game.

There was a noticeable decline in Mahomes’ quality of play after he aggravated the injury in the third quarter. He was not immobile or worthless, but he was not as accurate and under control like he was early in the game. I counted at least three plays in the second half where he really flirted with a backwards lateral or a pass that was barely forward as he tried to get the ball out to someone in the flat.

One of those plays was a pass to McKinnon, who dropped it upon quick review. That should have stopped the clock to bring up a third-and-9, but the clock was told to run at the ready for play, and a few seconds did erroneously come off before the third down was snapped, which was a short completion, I believe. The Chiefs were going to punt, then we were told the play was blown dead and never should have counted, which gave the Chiefs another crack at it.

I guess they technically got it fixed, but that was not a good look for the officials, and not a good break for the Bengals. Sure enough, a Mahomes sack was wiped out by defensive holding on Eli Apple of all people, and the Chiefs had a first down.

However, Mahomes was off again, and the drive stalled. Burrow had his chance to take the lead, but his third-and-3 arm punt was intercepted way down at the Kansas City 14 with 6:53 left. It effectively served as a 50-yard punt, though I think he could have got the first down with a safer, smarter play.

But for the third time in the game, the Chiefs drove into Cincinnati territory and came away with no points and not even a field goal attempt. The Bengals had an interesting choice after the Chiefs were penalized for holding. They could either put the Chiefs in third-and-22 and out of field-goal range, or decline the penalty to make it fourth-and-8 at the Cincinnati 37. I think Zac Taylor made the right call to decline as you hate to give Mahomes another shot on third down. From the 37, a 55-yard field goal would be tough in those cold conditions.

I think Reid surprised a lot of people when he chose the punt, which felt like the worst option, which is backed up by at least one set of data:

When you risk the potential of never seeing the ball again, I think a long field goal or letting Mahomes throw is viable. Tough decision, and it was not looking good after the way the defense was approaching the drive.

After Burrow was hit with a questionable intentional grounding penalty, it was third-and-16. You do not expect them to convert, but Hurst was left wide open for 23 yards after a blown coverage.

Was Burrow really about to do this on the road?

No, false alarm. The drive stalled after Burrow was sacked by Chris Jones on third-and-8 for the fifth sack of the game. That tends to be the magic number for playing Cincinnati.

In the last 31 games, Burrow is now 21-1 when he takes fewer than five sacks and 1-8 when he takes at least five sacks. There was a long gap between sack No. 4 and sack No. 5, but Jones made the biggest play when it was needed the most.

The defense did its part. Then it was the special teams’ turn. After an underwhelming rookie season for Skyy Moore with some big fumbles on returns, he almost doubled his longest punt return of the season with a 29-yard return to set up Mahomes at his own 47 with 30 seconds and one timeout left. It was the longest punt return of the season for the Chiefs, so good timing there.

We know Mahomes can set up a field goal in record time, but this drive was not going great, and you had to start thinking about seeing the new overtime rules in effect. But on a third-and-4, Mahomes scrambled the best he could and was able to get out of bounds after the marker for a first down. Unfortunately for the Bengals, Joseph Ossai, a second-year linebacker, let his instincts take over and he pushed Mahomes while he was clearly out of bounds and that resulted in a 15-yard flag.

It was not a smart play, but I don’t think I can crucify the player for this one. These quarterbacks are getting tricky with the way they slide down late or decide to stay in bounds sometimes and get more yards. But that was definitely a killer as it made the field goal 45 yards instead of 60 if they would even try it from that far. There also would have been a little time to get closer with a fresh set of downs, but the Chiefs were out of timeouts, so play calls would be very limited there. Just a massive penalty, and probably a gift.

I keep waiting for Harrison Butker to screw the Chiefs in a big game since he misses enough makeable kicks in the regular season to think he might be untrustworthy, but he keeps getting the job done in the playoffs. He was good from 45 yards and the Chiefs led 23-20 with 3 seconds left. That was only enough time for the Bengals to try a lateral play on the kick return that never went anywhere.

Three of the NFL’s last four drives in the final 40 seconds of a playoff game to win it or force overtime with a field goal have been led by Mahomes with Butker kicking a field goal:

In every sense of the word, the Chiefs survived this game, which is what they were going to have to do with the health situation this week. Now they hopefully can get some good rest and be fresher for the Super Bowl in two weeks, because the Eagles are going to be a difficult opponent.

As for the Bengals, that is now all seven playoff games in the Burrow era ending with the Bengals scoring 19-to-27 points and not allowing more than 24 points. Only Joe Montana (five games in 1981-84) in the early days of the 49ers dynasty had a streak anywhere near that in playoff history.

But we need to chill on the Joe Cool nickname here. I hope Burrow changes his stance here on “Who cares about third-down sacks?” His season largely just ended on one.

An embarrassing Mahomes fumble, a conservative punt decision from Reid, and a blown coverage on third-and-16 – this could have been the unholy trinity to kill another Kansas City postseason short of a championship.

Burrow’s fifth sack on third down by Jones, the 29-yard punt return by Moore, and the 15-yard penalty gift from Ossai – this holy trifecta saved Kansas City’s season and has them in the Super Bowl for the third time in four years.

It took a full team effort for the Chiefs to win this one, and we do not always see that from their wins, but it was the right mix of all three units coming through this time.

I was going to make a section here at the end to describe the Chiefs Twitter brouhaha from earlier this week, but there are two weeks and then some to write about legacies and such things. More importantly, my motivation to write defensively over nonsense at 4:38 A.M. after the team I wanted to win won this dramatic game is just not there. So, I’ll only say be glad that the Chiefs did not fall to 2-3 in home title games, which the favorite wins 72.1% of the time now (62-24).

Be glad they are not 0-4 against these cocky Bengals. Be glad we don’t have to hear “Burrowhead” bullshit, and hopefully the Cincinnati mayor is given a gag order the next time they are in the playoffs.

The Chiefs came through this time, but in the words of Kobe Bryant, the job’s not finished.

49ers at Eagles: Purdy Got Hurt and Hurts Was Purdy Bad

Well, that fvcking sucked.

The NFC’s Game of the Year was a matchup I was looking forward to for a few months now, but it could not have gone much worse than it did in Philadelphia’s 31-7 win.

Rarely do you say a playoff game was decided by each team’s first possession, but that was basically the case here as everything spiraled from the Eagles getting a touchdown they didn’t deserve and Brock Purdy’s elbow injury.

  • The Eagles got a fraudulent touchdown because the referees missed a catch that wasn’t a catch, and Kyle Shanahan was asleep at the wheel with his challenge flag.
  • Purdy was injured (elbow) on his third dropback.
  • The 49ers were sloppy and gave the Eagles a second touchdown drive on a drive that featured three defensive penalties for an automatic first down.
  • Backup quarterback Josh Johnson apparently hasn’t done much two-minute drill work with his 13 NFL teams in his career as he fumbled a snap that led to a 30-yard touchdown drive.
  • A weak roughing the punter was called to extend Philadelphia’s fourth touchdown drive and 28-7 lead.
  • I guess you can only prepare so much on the fly with the Wildcat and using Christian McCaffrey as your emergency QB, but there was a terrible Deebo Samuel run on a fourth-and-2 that set up the Eagles for their final scoring drive (field goal), and even that one included an embarrassing unnecessary roughness penalty on Dre Greenlaw for punching at the ball.
  • After a near fight and Trent Williams showing he had enough of this shit, Deebo had one more brutal fourth-down run where he tried to be Superman but just lost 7 yards and fumbled for technically the third lost fumble of the game for the 49ers.
  • Eagles finally ran out the clock to end this stinker.

But back to that opening drive. You see the 49ers bring pressure on Jalen Hurts, he gets off a low but catchable ball to A.J. Brown for 10 yards on third-and-8, and you think this is going to be a very good game like it should have been.

Then the Eagles go for a fourth-and-3, Hurts is a little too far with the ball, but DeVonta Smith appeared to make this incredible diving catch for 29 yards down to the 6. You think with the way he reacted to hurry up to the line and run the next play that even he knew he didn’t catch it because the ball was loose on the ground, but there was no challenge from Kyle Shanahan. What the hell, man? It probably wasn’t going to get any bigger in the first half than a complete or incomplete call on a fourth down in scoring territory.

The Eagles scored a pretty easy 6-yard rushing touchdown two plays later with Miles Sanders to take a 7-0 lead they didn’t deserve. Maybe the official’s view of the ball was obscured, but where is the expedited review from the booth to correct that one? Where is the challenge from Shanahan? Just failure all around and good luck for the Eagles.

Who knows how the game plays out if the 49ers take over at their own 35 in a 0-0 game, but the Philadelphia pass rush was definitely an issue for what is a good line in San Francisco. I was worried about Brock Purdy making mistakes in this game, but little did I know it’d go down like this.

It’s such a shame too because what a story this rookie was. He completed his first two passes. Nothing that will blow your socks off, but successful gains of 9 and 10 yards to George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk (his only catch of the game).

Then at the 50-yard line, everything changed. Purdy was hit on the arm just as he was trying to release the ball, and Haason Reddick got him just in time for it to be a strip-sack with clear recovery by the Eagles. Nick Sirianni was not asleep at the wheel and got the challenge off, and he got the ball. Purdy was out with an elbow injury and Josh Johnson had to warm up.

The Eagles actually went three-and-out with a very conservative drive. Reddick sacked Johnson on his first dropback to welcome him to the game. Neither offense was doing much as this was starting to look like last year’s 17-11 matchup.

Eventually, the 49ers were winning the field position battle and used a short field (46 yards) to tie the game with Christian McCaffrey doing the heavy lifting on a great 23-yard touchdown run.

The 49ers stopped Hurts on a third-and-2 run, but the Eagles boldly went for it on fourth-and-1 at their own 35. It paid off as Hurts again converted on the sneak.

From there, the 49ers gave up three first downs via penalty, including a big one on third-and-7 that I really wasn’t feeling DPI on Jimmie Ward against A.J. Brown. The other calls looked more legit, and the marathon drive went on until Sanders again scored from 13 yards out, untouched to take a 14-7 lead.

I even said on Twitter that the 49ers had to be careful here. Going into the locker room at 14-7 would not be that bad when you get the ball to start the third. But they tried to go hurry up and that’s when Johnson just flat out dropped the ball on a horrible play that the Eagles recovered 30 yards away from the end zone. They only needed four snaps to cover that before Boston Scott ripped off a 10-yard touchdown run that also looked too easy against an elite run defense.

The Eagles led 21-7 at halftime and things looked bleak.

Just when you thought the 49ers still had a chance after converting a third-and-13 to start the third quarter, Johnson was knocked out with a concussion. Well, it sure does suck that Jimmy Garoppolo was just not quite healthy enough to get back this week as there was hope he’d be available for the Super Bowl.

The 49ers’ emergency option was CMC, and he just took a handoff from Purdy, who came back in the game, for a 4-yard gain and punt.

Could Purdy throw? Apparently not as he would throw just two short passes in the entire second half despite having to finish the game for Johnson. The 49ers really did nothing that unique or fun with Samuel and CMC, though you can hardly blame them for not preparing more offense beyond the third-string rookie quarterback they brought into this game. Just a disastrous year for quarterback injuries for this team.

Meanwhile, Donovan McNabb fvcking wept as Hurts was getting bailed out from a very weak performance in this game.

The 49ers had the top-ranked defense, but he did not even look under duress as much as the 49ers quarterbacks did (or Joe Burrow later in the day), and even the coverage was not all that tight on his receivers. But Hurts’ accuracy was poor, he got the 29-yard gain to Smith that should have been incomplete, and he finished this game with 121 passing yards on 25 attempts.

That is 4.84 YPA in a championship game the Eagles won 31-7. It’s the first time a quarterback won a conference championship game by 14+ points with a YPA under 5.0 since Steve McNair against the 1999 Jaguars with Tennessee (33-14 win with 4.9 YPA).

It wasn’t even that great of a rushing day for Hurts, who finished with 11 runs for 39 yards. It just so happens that 29 of those yards, and his 15th rushing touchdown of the season, came after the 49ers were penalized for a brutal roughing the punter penalty to negate a fourth-and-6 punt from midfield.

I felt like the defender was blocked into the punter. Either way, it should be a really unnecessary hit to count as roughing the punter, and that one was weak in my view. But the Eagles turned it into another touchdown and this was over at 28-7 late in the third quarter.

If Purdy could physically throw, I believe they would have tried more. But it just did not happen in this game. The fourth quarter was just watching the 49ers get more and more frustrated with themselves as Samuel and McCaffrey couldn’t sustain drives for them with zero passing game. This isn’t Army vs. Navy after all.

Then the ruckus late in the fourth quarter was a bad look with Williams and K’Von Wallace getting ejected.

That was just a trash game, and we’ll never know what Purdy would have did without the injury. Maybe he has a decent game and it puts more pressure on Hurts, who did not look good at all to me.

But this seems to be what happens when the Eagles face a good team. The health of the opposing quarterback is just not there, and sure enough, they are getting Mahomes in the Super Bowl after he appeared to aggravate his ankle injury. We know he’s going to play, and both these quarterbacks can use the time off before this one, but we’ll see how the Chiefs handle that pass rush.

I think they handle it better than the Bengals would have, but I have two weeks to overanalyze a game where both fan bases will think I hate their team when the reality is I have a clear rooting interest in this one.

NFL 2022 Conference Championship Game Predictions

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

After the games ended last Sunday, I had a very clear prediction in mind for this week that it would be Cincinnati vs. San Francisco in the Super Bowl.

But as the week has gone on, I’ve done a 180 on both games, and maybe a 270 would be more accurate as I’m torn on both as I can see good arguments for every team to win.

This usually doesn’t happen for me, but this is also an unusual pair of games for Championship Sunday. It is looking like it will be just the third time where both games had a spread under 3 points. There have only been 12 games out of 104 since 1970 in this round that had a spread under 3 points, and the kicker is 10 of those 12 games were still decided by double digits.

I wrote previews this week, and now I may be giving conflicting final picks because I really am not sure on either game. I’d say all four possible Super Bowl matchups have just about a 25% split of happening, which I would almost never say about a final four.

Hopefully the games will be good, because last week was not.

Teaser picks for both games (total and spread).

San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

Full preview link

How the 49ers can upset the Eagles

NFC-CG Props

It comes down to this: Eagles are the last team standing that have no glaring flaw, while the 49ers have to overcome a rookie QB making his first road playoff start against the No. 1 pass defense that has 70 sacks and great corner play. NFL history alone would tell you the Eagles win this game and possibly by more than one possession, but we also know Kyle Shanahan has had his teams very close in the playoffs. They have blown a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter of a Super Bowl and NFC-CG.

And No. 1 defenses also fare pretty well this time of year, but again, the Eagles are quite good on that side of the ball too. Brock Purdy hasn’t lost a start yet, but Jalen Hurts has lost one all year for this team and it still took four giveaways (three, really, with a junk fumble TD padding the stats) and an insane day on 3rd down by the Washington offense.

I think Purdy makes dangerous decisions because that’s what you’d expect from Mr. Irrelevant, but I keep seeing the Seahawks and Cowboys fail to make him pay for it. I think the Eagles make him pay, and I think they get just enough out of the ground game and using Hurts’ legs to win this one.

But it should be a game that comes down to turnovers, which isn’t something that we’ve seen a lot of this postseason like we usually do. Hell, the Jaguars won a game by being -5 in turnovers, Bills were negative against Miami and won, the NYG-MIN game had none, and the Bills were also down 27-10 with a minute to play against the Bengals before a turnover (meaningless one). The biggest turnover this postseason so far is the QB sneak by the Ravens against the Bengals.

But why turnovers? The defenses involved here, and the fact that the 49ers are 15-0 with 0-1 turnovers and 0-4 with 2+ turnovers this year. The Eagles have two 4-turnover games in losses and Gardner Minshew threw a pick-six in the third loss against New Orleans.

I think the Eagles force enough mistakes from the rookie to end this 12-game winning streak for the 49ers.

Final: Eagles 27, 49ers 20

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

Full AFC Championship Game prevew

Early week preview on this game

AFC-CG Props

This spread has gone crazy from KC -2.5 to CIN -2.5 to CIN -1 to KC -1.5 as no one knows what to really make of Patrick Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain. We’ll just have to see Sunday, but with the spread and the Chiefs not even listing him on the final injury report, it would sound like it’s business as usual. Mahomes’ O/U is even 283.5 passing yards, and the Bengals have held him to 275 or less in the last three meetings. Travis Kelce popping up with a back injury is concerning though.

I’ll address the Twitter brouhaha more in Stat Oddity tomorrow night after we see what happens, but all I’ve been saying is it would be a bad look for what was supposed to be the NFL’s next dynasty to do this:

  • Lose 31-9 in the Super Bowl vs. Tampa while getting badly outcoached on both sides of the ball
  • Go 1-3 vs. two chief rivals in AFC last year (Bills and Bengals)
  • That includes the 2021 AFC Championship Game loss where the Chiefs were a 7-point home favorite, blew the biggest home lead (21-3) in title game history by Mahomes botching the end of the first half and getting zero points there, then falling victim to a three-man rush to take four sacks in the fourth quarter, almost have a season-ending fumble in the red zone that was recovered by the line, almost throw an overtime pick on second down, then get intercepted on third down to set up the Bengals at midfield for their game-winning field goal.
  • Then to go 0-2 vs. chief rivals (BUF/CIN) again this year with Mahomes throwing a game-ending INT vs. Bills and Kelce fumbling against the Bengals and Mahomes taking a third-down sack that led to a missed 55-yard FG before the Bengals ran out the clock.
  • But they beat the Jaguars last week and Buffalo lost badly, so here we are again in Arrowhead for the title game. But the Chiefs will fall to 2-3 in AFC title games and 3-4 in all championship games in the Mahomes era if they do not win this game, for which they are again favored as they have been in all 13 playoff games.
  • If Andy Reid loses this game, he will be 3-5 in title games at home in his career, and he and Bill Cowher will account for 8-of-17 (47.1%) title game losses as a home favorite in the salary cap era.

Some would say that’s a bad look, or disappointing. But I am still trying to adjust to this new logic introduced this week that simply being in these games means more than winning or losing them, or even losing more of them than you win.

I think this game could have a Colts-Patriots 2003 AFC Championship Game level of impact on the league for the next 10-to-15 years. The narratives could be absurd, especially if the winner goes on to finish the job in the Super Bowl.

But as for the matchup, I’m most interested in seeing if Mahomes’ injury is relevant or if he looks normal as could be, which seems miraculous given the usual nature of this injury. But beyond that, can this actually be a benefit to the Chiefs if it causes Reid to call a much different game that gets the ball out faster from the pocket so Mahomes doesn’t have to use his legs that much?

The Bengals have done a fantastic job of making Mahomes hold the ball. Sometimes it was the three-time rush, and sometimes it has just been making him indecisive and watching him scramble too much. This has been a common theme in most of KC’s losses since 2020. The last 5 times he’s lost, which includes the 0-3 record vs. Cincinnati, were games where Mahomes held he ball over 3.0 seconds per throw. His two worst games in that stat the last two years are against the Bengals, who even had him up to 4.0 seconds in the 2nd half of the title game last year when they went 3-man rush on 45% of passes.

Then in 2020, we know that Mahomes had almost 500 scramble yards on passes in both losses against the Raiders and Buccaneers. Making him scramble for his life has been effective, and I just wonder if the Bengals dial up more blitzes in this one to test his mobility. How does KC answer? With more screens to RBs, with more of Pacheco on the ground, more involvement of Kadarius Toney, more short passes to Kelce like they did last week when he had 14 catches for 98 yards? It’s a very interesting chess match on that side of the ball that we’re about to see.

As for the other side, I think Burrow and the Bengals shredded the Chiefs in Week 13 and should be ready for this one against by far the worst defense still playing this season. But what if, for a change, the Chiefs actually stepped up on defense to help out their not-100%-healthy QB? Maybe Chris Jones could even muster a playoff sack or two as he still has none in 13 career playoff games. Burrow is 21-1 in his last 30 games when he takes fewer than 5.0 sacks and 1-7 when he takes 5+ sacks. Put his ass down in this game. He’s not a playoff legend yet as he still has never led a fourth-quarter touchdown drive in six playoff games.

We’ll see what happens, but the Chiefs come in with the better QB, the Bengals have the better team. If Mahomes is still struggling on handoffs and throwing some funny balls because of the injury, then giving them the nod for best QB may even be off in this matchup Sunday. But no one knows until he plays on it.

So, am I going for the reverse jinx to screw the cocky-ass Bengals who are tempting the football gods with all the noise this week, the reverse-reverse jinx to shut up Kansas City’s most annoying fans on Twitter, or do I honestly think the Bengals are winning this game? All I can tell you is I want the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, just like I did the last four Championship Sundays, and batting 1-for-4 is fine if this was baseball.

Sorry if I have higher standards, but who saw the Bengals making back-to-back Super Bowls so quickly? Also, if they win on the road again without three starting offensive linemen, how impressive is that when Chiefs fans blow a gasket over the Eric Fisher injury two years ago? Coach better. Play better.

But you know what, I’m going to stick to my original research that started this nonsense and declare it would be too much of an oddity for Mahomes to have more home title game losses in just five years than any QB in history has in their whole careers. The Bengals are lucky but they are not the 2003-04 Patriots.

Final: Chiefs 28, Bengals 27

And you know what, I’m still probably taking the NFC to win the Super Bowl no matter which of these teams win tomorrow.

NFL Stat Oddity: 2022 Divisional Round

~ Scott ~ 3 Comments

For as incredible as the divisional round was last season with road teams going 3-1 and every game decided on the final play, the 2022 slate was one of the worst in history.

  • Zero lead changes in the second half.
  • Three wire-to-wire wins.
  • Three home favorites won by 7+ points.
  • One game-winning drive that was settled on the first snap of the fourth quarter in a tied game, leading to the only pathetic 4QC attempt of the weekend.
  • A 7-point win marred by a major quarterback injury.
  • Three of the losing teams failed to score more than 12 points, which has not happened in the divisional round since the 2002 season.

I would rank it as the third-worst divisional round since 1970 behind only 1992 and 2000.

In 1992, you had three wins by 21+ points, and the closest game was a forgettable one in San Francisco with the 49ers beating Washington 20-13. Washington (13) scored as many points as the other three losers that weekend combined that’s how bad it was.

2000’s highlight game was that horseshit outcome in Tennessee when the top-seeded Titans choked 24-10 to the Ravens, losing on a blocked field goal return touchdown and Eddie George tipping a pick-six to Ray Lewis.

In the end, 2022 is just copying the same final four as 2021, giving us Bengals-Chiefs in Arrowhead, and the 49ers on the road against the latest NFC flash in the pan who everyone will say can win for years to come when this might legitimately be their best and final shot at a ring.

Does it play out the same way as last year? We’ll see next week, but for now, let’s try to quickly put a bow on this dud of a weekend. I can remember staying up super late last year in finishing the recap of 42-36 and the other games, still riding a sense of awe from my favorite weekend of the NFL year.

But this was not much fun this year, and I guess scoring streaks don’t mean what they used to when the teams in question have a history of coming up short this time of year.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Cowboys at 49ers: Mr. Self Destruct on Repeat All Summer

One team did this:

The other did this:

Pretty obvious which team won, and which team lost again even if you didn’t see the game.

There are other plays I could point to, like two classic 2022 Dallas interceptions thrown by Dak Prescott, or how the defense failed to hang onto multiple Brock Purdy pick opportunities. Tight end Dalton Schultz also made some boneheaded plays at the end of the game as he is no George Kittle, that’s for sure.

But the Cowboys’ destructive ways finally caught up to them even if the 49ers certainly didn’t play their A game. Kicker Brett Maher had another extra point miss, but it was blocked this time. Still, it looked like he was going to miss it if it wasn’t blocked.

That second Prescott interception in the red zone just before halftime was a killer. Instead of Dallas scoring, the 49ers turned that into a field goal and 9-6 lead as both defenses did a lot of good things. The 49ers also caught a break when Tony Pollard suffered a game-ending injury in the first half right before the last pick.

The only points of the third quarter went to Dallas on a 25-yard field goal – we found a distance Maher can still hit from – after the 49ers fumbled a punt return, so that wasn’t really earned by the offense.

Before what became the game-winning drive, the Cowboys had a chance to go for a fourth-and-5 at the San Francisco 40. They took a delay of game penalty and punted. Very conservative decision by Mike McCarthy there that proved costly.

On the second play of the drive, Kittle made that ridiculously athletic catch from above for a 30-yard gain into Dallas territory. Kittle had both 49ers’ 30-yard plays in this game, but that was the big one. Purdy’s only other positive gain on the drive was an 8-yard gain on a little throw to Christian McCaffrey.

The drive could have stalled on a third-down sack, but the Cowboys were penalized for defensive holding, giving the 49ers a new set of downs. McCaffrey walked in for a 2-yard touchdown run on the first play of the fourth quarter to take a 16-9 lead.

The Cowboys ended up settling for a 43-yard field goal after a blown blocking assignment on first down blew up the drive with a 4-yard loss. Maher actually made the kick normally and it was 16-12.

Dan Quinn’s defense did a good job in the game against a team that was scoring well over 30 points per game with Purdy, but you can complain about these back-to-back scoring drives that were both long and impactful in the second half. The 49ers put together another one, taking 7:59 off the clock and adding a field goal, leaving Prescott with 2:59 left to try tying the game at 19 or taking the lead on a two-point conversion.

This was plenty of time, but similar to last year when the Cowboys had a stinker of a drive in a 23-17 game in the wild card round, they quickly folded here too, going three-and-out. Prescott was sacked and the Cowboys had to hurry the punt team to save the two-minute warning.

Remember last year’s craptacular ending with the infamous quarterback draw with no timeouts left? It took some bad game management by the 49ers to get Dallas that opportunity, and something similar would happen here as well. The 49ers came out throwing with 2:05 left, which was perfectly fine given the upcoming clock stoppage for the two-minute warning. But the short throw was carried so well by Kittle for 11 YAC that it was almost a meaningless first down as the clock stopped with Dallas still holding all three timeouts.

I’m not saying it would be easy for Kittle to give up on a play, but a gain of 9 yards would have really been the best thing possible there to burn clock. Two plays later, Elijah Mitchell did something much worse. He got to the outside and ran for a 13-yard gain to get a first down that could have burned most of the clock, but he ran out of bounds instead of sliding down once he got the first.

There would be no third first down gained on the drive. The 49ers punted and the Cowboys were left in the unenviable position of having to drive 94 yards in 45 seconds for a touchdown with no timeouts.

But at least it was a chance thanks to the Mitchell mistake. Prescott nearly pissed it away with a sack for a safety, but Arik Armstead seemed to pull up on the hit, which Prescott absorbed and threw the ball away from.

Schultz caught a couple short ones, though he didn’t get out of bounds properly on one, which led to the clock rolling. Then he casually didn’t drag his second foot down on another play with 6 seconds left, costing the Cowboys 15 yards and an outside shot at a Hail Mary from 61 yards out.

All you could really do was a lateral-filled play at this point, 76 yards away from the end zone. The Cowboys were lining up Ezekiel Elliott at center in a unique formation, so you at least expected something unique they clearly worked on. But after the 49ers took a timeout, the play was ran, Elliott was pancaked, and Dak threw a short pass to a receiver who was immediately tackled for an 8-yard gain. Didn’t even get a lateral off.

What the hell was the point of that?

Oddly enough, you can say the same about every overhyped Dallas Cowboys season since 1996, because once again they are eliminated short of the NFC Championship Game. We will now see a fifth rookie quarterback start a Conference Championship Game since the Cowboys were last in it. Purdy joins Mark Sanchez (2009 Jets) and Joe Flacco (2008 Ravens) as the only three rookies to win multiple playoff games in NFL history.

But Purdy is going to have to be better in Philadelphia next week than he was here against Dallas if he wants to become the first rookie quarterback to start a Super Bowl.

As for the Cowboys, I’m not on the fire McCarthy and trade Dak bandwagon, but I do think there is a serious limitation on how far you can expect this team to go this time of year with them leading the way. I just struggle to see the better alternatives in 2023, because last I checked, McCarthy’s one Super Bowl win is still a year fresher than Sean Payton’s.

This league is hard, and yet the 49ers are going to their sixth NFC title game in the last 12 years with two head coaches and four different starting quarterbacks.

Bengals at Bills: Buffalo’s Emotional Season Meets Flat Finale

I am not very keen on calling this a big upset. I thought the opening 4.5-point spread for the Bills was too high, and I thought the 5.5 and 6-point spreads for the weekend were even more ridiculous. I was consistent from Week 17 to this week in choosing Buffalo to win by a field goal (27-24) in a close game like how every Cincinnati playoff game is close the last two years.

But this was shockingly one sided, and not in any way that made any sense going into this matchup:

  • For all the talk about Buffalo’s turnovers this year, the game’s only turnover was a meaningless Josh Allen interception with 1:02 left to play and the Bills down 27-10.
  • The game’s only turnover on downs, often a hidden turnover in the stat sheet, was halfway through the fourth quarter, and again, Buffalo was already down 27-10.
  • The Bills had just eight offensive drives for the game, and two of them were with a 27-10 deficit in the fourth quarter.
  • The Bengals were down three starting offensive linemen coming in, yet it was the Bills who looked like the team facing that dilemma.
  • While each quarterback was sacked once, Joe Burrow was rarely pressured while Allen was frequently pressured.
  • In the regular season, Buffalo was No. 7 in rushing yards and No. 2 in yards per carry. Cincinnati was No. 29 in both categories.
  • But the Bengals rushed for 172 yards on 5.1 yards per carry in their second-biggest rushing game of the year, and the Bills had 63 yards on 3.3 yards per carry, their fewest rushing yards in a game since 32 yards in the 2020 AFC divisional round vs. Baltimore.
  • Buffalo averaged 28.4 points per game in the regular season, ranked No. 2 in the league, but the 10 points were the fewest scored since last year’s 14-10 loss vs. Patriots in extreme wind.
  • The Bengals scored a touchdown on the opening drive and led wire-to-wire in the snow, once considered to be a home-field advantage for the Bills.

While there was more than an inch of snow as the weather people incorrectly predicted this week, remember when the Bills had a home-field advantage in the elements? That seems to be gone with this offense. The defense also looked incredibly soft and unable to put together a pass rush to take advantage of Cincinnati’s line, which played far better than Buffalo’s.

The Bills are the first top-five scoring offense to be held to 10 points in a home playoff loss since the 2005 Giants lost 23-0 to the Panthers in the NFC wild card.

That was Eli Manning’s first playoff start under Tom Coughlin. The Bills are supposed to be an experienced playoff team, and they were the Super Bowl favorites for most of this year.

The 2002 Eagles also lost 27-10 at home to the 2002 Buccaneers, an all-time elite defense. That’s one of the closest examples to this game, but at least those teams had some history. This was the first Burrow vs. Allen matchup, and they are scheduled to meet next regular season in Cincinnati. If this is how the Bills are going to handle one of their main rivals in the AFC, then the long wait for a Super Bowl may have just gotten a little longer.

This was really bad for the Bills, who looked incapable of forcing the Bengals into a negative play on their first two drives as Cincy quickly led 14-0. In between, Allen was pressured on a third down, missed Stefon Diggs on a deep ball, and the offense went three-and-out.

Long drives defined the second quarter with the Bills finally getting on the board with an Allen touchdown run, but the Bengals nearly matched it on their own lengthy drive. A Ja’Marr Chase touchdown was overturned after replay showed him losing control of the ball out of bounds. Had he caught that in the middle of the field, it would have stood as a completion. But we still have difficult rules in place for touchdowns, and I’m not sure how I feel about that philosophically. Should touchdowns be held to a higher standard, or should the final yard be no different from the rest? Either way, I think they got the call right this time, and that cost the Bengals an extra 4 points.

But the Bills could not capitalize on that break. Allen threw three straight incompletions from the Cincinnati 41 and the Bills punted on their final drive of the half. The Bills started the third quarter with another long drive that consumed half the quarter, but they again stalled in the red zone and had to settle for a field goal and 17-10 lead.

That sequence really did the Bills in. They had to do better than 3 points on two drives that took up so much time. There was no sense of what the game plan was for the Bills outside of hoping Allen would throw some lasers and run through some people. He led the team in rushing with 26 yards as the two backs who were so good late in the year had 11 carries for 37 yards. Seven receivers had multiple catches, but Stefon Diggs (4-of-10 for 35 yards) and Gabe Davis (2-of-4 for 34 yards) were quiet.

Meanwhile, the Bengals converted a huge third-and-10 after the Bills lost all sight of tight end Hayden Hurst. That led to another touchdown, a 1-yard run by Joe Mixon to make it 24-10.

The Bills quickly went three-and-out and punted on a fourth-and-2 from their own 20. They’d never see the ball again without facing a three-score deficit.

Incredibly, this was the deficit for Buffalo at the start of its eight drives:

  • -7 (three-and-out)
  • -14 (three-and-out)
  • -14 (touchdown)
  • -10 (punt)
  • -10 (field goal)
  • -14 (three-and-out)
  • -17 (turnover on downs)
  • -17 (interception)

The Bills trailed by double digits on their final seven drives. In the first 17 games this season, the Bills had five drives where they trailed by double digits, and they were all in the Baltimore game where they came back from 20-3 down to win.

There would be no comeback this time. Only a massive letdown, the biggest one yet for Buffalo in this era. The Bengals drove for a field goal early in the fourth quarter to take a 27-10 lead. The Bills had a chance to kick a late field goal in a three-score game, but what good would that really do with half a quarter left against a team you cannot stop? Maybe you can get away with kicking there against the Texans, but it made sense to go for it. Allen did not find anyone open, and his desperation pass fell incomplete.

Game all but over there. The Bengals burned five more minutes and Allen added the irrelevant pick after the Bills were thoroughly dominated without any turnovers.

It was such a flat ending to one emotional rollercoaster of a season. You have to admit, the America’s Game for this team would have been quite the watch if they won it all.

  • Opening night destruction of the defending champion Rams
  • Melting down in Miami before coming back from 20-3 to beat the Ravens
  • Allen’s monster passing day vs. Steelers in Kenny Pickett’s first start, a 38-3 rout
  • The game-winning drive in Week 6’s showdown in Kansas City
  • Allen’s elbow injury at the end of the Jets game
  • The insane fumble and everything else that happened in the Minnesota overtime loss
  • The Cleveland game getting moved to Detroit after six feet of snow hit Buffalo
  • Von Miller’s torn ACL on Thanksgiving and Allen’s frozen rope to Diggs for the game-winning drive
  • The game-winning drive in the snow against Miami on a Saturday night
  • The Damar Hamlin cardiac arrest that stunned the sports world in Cincinnati, the first game cancelled for non-labor reasons since 1935
  • Nyheim Hines returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown in the next game against New England; one of two returns for him that day in eliminating the Patriots
  • A wild 34-31 win over the Dolphins in the wild card

With the break of getting this game in Buffalo instead of a neutral field, and the ankle injury to Patrick Mahomes on Saturday, this just seemed like a team of destiny this year with one hell of a championship story to tell.

Now, tale as old as time, it’s just a 57th-straight Buffalo season that will end without winning the Super Bowl. In some ways, this ending is much worse than the 13 seconds in Kansas City last year. At least that team had some fight. This team looked like a soft dome team not ready for the weather, which is an insane thing to say about a Buffalo team, but that’s where they are now.

I prefaced this season talking about The Five-Year Rule for both the Bills and Ravens. No team has ever won its first championship by starting the same quarterback for the same head coach for more than five seasons.

In picking Buffalo to win the Super Bowl, I had them beating Baltimore and Lamar Jackson in the AFC Championship Game next week. Now, the Bengals eliminated both and it’ll either be another Kansas City or Cincinnati Super Bowl.

The five-year window has closed on the pairings of Sean McDermott/Allen and John Harbaugh/Jackson. It’s not looking good for their futures together. Getting into battles with Mahomes and the Chiefs is one thing, but now that you’ve let Cincinnati officially move past you in the AFC too, it may take significant changes for these teams to get over the hump.

But with no one in the AFC seemingly able to stop this Cincinnati team, their confidence is at an all-time high. Even if you’re a trash corner like Eli Apple, it is hard not to be this cocky after a 27-10 win in Buffalo.

Who dey think gonna beat them Bengals? Might have to be an NFC team with a great pass rush again. At the very least, I’m happy to see there will not be a neutral-field conference championship game. I think that would be a terrible move for the league to try in the future.

Jaguars at Chiefs: Quick, Break the Henne Emergency Glass

We’ll see if Patrick Mahomes can make it 3-for-3 in appearing in the Super Bowl after narrowly avoiding a season-ending injury. He did it in 2019 when he dislocated his kneecap in Denver and only missed two full games. He did it in 2020 when he tweaked a nerve during the third quarter of the divisional round against Cleveland, leaving the game as Chad Henne was able to come off the bench and direct a 22-17 win before Mahomes returned for the AFC Championship Game a week later.

But this is not a good time for Mahomes to suffer a high-ankle sprain with the Bengals coming to town next week. We’ve already seen the Chiefs go 0-3 with a healthy Mahomes against that team. Now his athleticism will no doubt be compromised, and that could be a big problem as this game on Saturday showed.

It’s a shame too because Mahomes came out firing with his A+ game against Jacksonville. That opening 83-yard touchdown drive was perfection as the Jacksonville defense had the right approach many times, but he continued to find different throwing angles and showed off the full extent of his abilities.

After Jacksonville matched the touchdown set up by a long kick return for a short field, it looked like we might get a legit shootout. But on the second Kansas City possession, the ankle injury happened to Mahomes:

Clearly hobbled, Mahomes stayed in the game, but I thought it was negligent to put him back in the game a la Robert Griffin II a decade ago. Then to call a stretch run play on the first snap since the injury? Even dumber. Mahomes completed his first two passes with the injury, but they were both short, and his last throw was an ugly one, leading to a field goal.

Thankfully, the team did take him out and he went to the locker room for an x-ray and treatment. It was a tough spot for Chad Henne to enter the game at his own 2-yard line, but he is a veteran who has been in the offense for years. He may not have did anything individually spectacular on the drive, but he did exactly what you could ask of a veteran backup: make smart plays and protect the ball. Henne almost had a pick on an early throw, but it was clearly tipped at the line and you could see he had the right decision. Would have been a bad luck pick, but the drive continued, and Isiah Pacheco helped out with a 39-yard run to eat up nearly half the field.

But Henne had a 4-of-7 success rate on the drive, converted a pair of third downs, and he finished it off with a 1-yard touchdown pass to Travis Kelce, who looked unstoppable in Saturday’s role of eating up the Jaguars on option routes and just sitting in the open area underneath. He’d finished with 14 catches for 98 yards and two touchdowns.

Imagine Henne leading a 98-yard touchdown drive in a playoff game before Mahomes. Besides taking a knee to take the game to half with the Chiefs up 17-10, that one 98-yard touchdown drive was all Henne had to do in this game, but what a great job from the backup quarterback.

Mahomes returned for the second half after what had to be one hell of a drug cocktail. I did not think we’d see him again with that shot of him on the sideline cheering Henne’s drive on, and with the Chiefs leading. But with the Jaguars only down a score and some likely begging to play from the league’s MVP, Mahomes was back in there.

That first drive did not look good, and the second would fail too after a third-and-1 run came up short with the direct snap to Noah Gray. But the Jaguars were failing to threaten on offense with far too many screens and passes behind the line of scrimmage from Trevor Lawrence.

Mahomes hit Gray for a 27-yard gain, his only 20-yard completion of the game. That set up a field goal and 20-10 lead going into the fourth, but the Jaguars finally put together a drive again and scored a touchdown to make it 20-17 with 11:49 left.

Could the Jags really come back from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter of back-to-back playoff games? But Mahomes would do his best work since the opening drive and complete four passes for 48 yards, including a clutch 6-yard touchdown to Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He’s the best quarterback at turning a one-score lead into a two-score lead in the fourth quarter, and that drive just grows the legend.

But could the defense close out the last seven minutes? Lawrence finally started using his legs and had a great 12-yard run on a third-and-10 to set up first-and-goal in a hurry. But while Jamal Agnew had some great returns to help his team out, he cost them with a big fumble with 5:29 left. Just lost the ball at the 3-yard line.

But the Chiefs did go three-and-out after the second run failure on third-and-1 of the game. Figures, Mahomes puts up 20 points on eight drives with one leg on the last seven, and it’s still two third-and-1 run stops that did the most damage to this offense.

However, any hope for Jacksonville was quickly lost after Lawrence panicked under pressure and threw up an interception to rookie Jaylen Watson, the seventh-round pick who shined in Week 2 with the huge pick-six against the Chargers.

The Chiefs burned the clock to 1:04 left, then Jacksonville could only get a field goal before failing on an onside kick to end it at 27-20. The Jaguars (+9.5) still covered, moving head coach Doug Pederson to 7-0 ATS and 5-2 SU as a playoff underdog, which are fantastic records. But even with the Mahomes injury, the Jaguars were unable to capitalize on offense early, and the two big turnovers late did them in.

I would be careful about penciling in the Jaguars for many more of these games going forward. Look what was once said about Andrew Luck and the Colts or Deshaun Watson and the Texans. Those franchise basically imploded after losing to the Chiefs in the divisional round in 2018 and 2019. But it was a successful season for the Jaguars, and they look to be moving in the right direction.

But frankly, playing AFC South teams like this in the second round is how the Chiefs have become just the third team after the 1973-77 Raiders and 2011-18 Patriots to play in at least five straight Conference Championship Games.

Even Brady and the Patriots weren’t doing this in the 2000s AFC when the conference was deeper. They started doing it in 2011 when they drew some of the weakest teams to ever advance in the tournament such as the 2011 Broncos (Tebow), 2013 Colts (who came back from 38-10 vs. Reid’s Chiefs), 2016 Texans (beat Connor Cook), and 2017 Titans (who came back from 21-3 vs. Reid’s Chiefs). Throw in Reid and Pederson losing in New England with the 2015 Chiefs, and you can say the Chiefs had a lot to do with New England’s streak still being the record.

So, here we go again with the Chiefs hosting the AFC Championship Game for the fifth year in a row. Not looking forward to Mahomes’ ankle talk all week, but it is the huge story in the AFC.

But Saturday’s win is a data point for “he could beat that team with one leg tied behind his back.”

Giants at Eagles: Giant Ass Kicking

It has been some time since we’ve seen this kind of early knockout and ass kicking in the playoffs. There was no letdown on Philadelphia’s part after the bye week. The Eagles led 28-0 at halftime and won 38-7 to complete the three-game sweep of the rival Giants, who were just no match for the top seed this year.

The 2019 Packers were down 27-0 at halftime against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game before losing 37-20, so at least they had a little fight after the break. The last time a team was getting shutout at half by 28-plus points in a playoff game was when the 2015 Panthers went up 31-0 on the Seahawks in the divisional round. Seattle got it to 31-24 late but could not recover an onside kick.

But this is just the sixth time in playoff history where a team was shutout by 28-plus points at halftime.

Never good to be in the company of the 73-0 game for the loser. The Giants were just never in this one. They gave up a 40-yard bomb on the second play of the game, Dallas Goedert made an incredible one-handed catch to get a 16-yard touchdown, and once Daniel Jones took a bad sack on a fourth-and-8 in response, it was already a dangerous time for the Giants.

The Eagles took the short field for another 52-yard touchdown drive, and then Jones made his worst throw of the night for a pick by James Bradberry. Boston Scott later pounded in his 11th touchdown against the Giants, and the Giant Killer is now 9-for-9 at scoring touchdowns in games against the Giants. Did he grow up a Patriots fan or something? He was born in Louisiana and went to school there. I’m not sure why he shits all over the Giants every time, but he did it again in the playoffs to secure his legacy against them.

Throw in the obligatory Hurts touchdown run before halftime and it was 28-0. Between the early Scott score and Hurts easily running that one in, the Eagles looked like they were toying with the Giants.

Things did not go much better in the second half. One 39-yard run by Saquon Barkley helped the Giants to their only touchdown drive in the game to make it 28-7. But the moment worthy of criticism came on their next possession, which extended into the fourth quarter.

Facing a fourth-and-6 at their own 42, the Giants punted with 13:12 left. You’re down three touchdowns, you’re almost certainly going to lose barring a miracle. Why are you punting, Brian Daboll? If you go for it, you might convert and keep this improbable rally going. If you don’t get it, there’s still some value here in that the drive should not consume much time with the Eagles on the edges of field-goal range. You could even push them back a little and force a punt.

But the Giants punted, and the Eagles burned almost eight minutes on a run-heavy drive before kicking a field goal to make it 31-7 with 5:16 left. So much good punting did there. But the Giants had a terrible run defense this year, and it was exposed in this game and especially on that drive when Kenneth Gainwell ripped off 12 yards with a great effort on a third-and-12.

But even if they didn’t add the three points on that drive, it took up way too much time. On their next drive, Jones started getting into sack trouble against the defense that had 70 sacks this year. Still, he made a fourth-and-16 conversion look so casual with a 17-yard completion, his longest completion of the game to a non-running back. Gee, maybe that fourth-and-6 earlier would have been worth the try?

The drive eventually stalled and was turned over on downs. The Eagles padded the score with Gainwell taking off for a 35-yard touchdown run on a third-and-9 that he didn’t need with 1:51 left. The Eagles finished with 268 rushing yards and Hurts only needed to throw for 154 in his first playoff win. Jones then completed a few hospital balls to his receivers, because I guess 38-7 in the last two minutes is the right time to start getting aggressive as a passer. Then it was finally over.

I think the frustrating thing about the Giants is that they never seemed to have any plan for the game. Maybe it was blown up by the quick 14-0 hole, and maybe they were shell shocked by the fourth-down sack and the interception. But I have no idea if they wanted to establish Saquon, make use of Jones’ legs, try to use the slot receivers to stay away from the outside corners, or just chuck it deep and hope for pass interference.

They did none of those things. Barkley had 8 carries for 22 yards when you set aside his 39-yard burst in a 28-0 hole. Jones lost more yards on five sacks (26) than he had on six runs (24 yards). Richie James had 10 targets compared to 17 for the rest of the team, and he was the only receiver with more than 21 receiving yards. The game only had six penalties for 30 yards between the two teams, and it was free of controversy because the Giants were knocked out almost immediately.

It is unusual to see a Giants playoff run that doesn’t end one-or-done or in the Super Bowl like 12 of their last 14 trips have.

This game had the biggest talent disparity this weekend and the results backed that up. Now we’ll see if the Eagles can win against a legitimate elite team for the first time in the Hurts era.

NFL Stat Oddity: 2022 Wild Card Weekend

~ Scott ~ 3 Comments

Much like those Burger King commercials tossing “You rule!” at the end, I pretty much feckin’ cringe when I hear “Super Wild Card Weekend.” So, I couldn’t bring myself to call it that in the headline, but it was a great weekend of games.

Even with several backup quarterbacks and plenty of playoff inexperience, every team showed up competitively for at least three quarters. Every team except the Chargers, who only showed up for two.

Just four weeks ago, we had the largest comeback in NFL history, which I did a big story on for the Vikings. Twenty-eight days later, we had the fifth-largest comeback win in Jacksonville. The wild card round is now home to three of the five biggest comebacks in NFL history, all from a deficit of 27-plus points.

But the 49ers’ rookie quarterback did something we hadn’t seen since 1937, the Chargers cemented their legacy as the Falcons of the AFC, the Bills are the only team capable of making the No. 7 seed look like it belongs, the Giants ended another historic NFL winning streak, and Joe Burrow willed his defense to the longest fumble return touchdown in playoff history (and maybe the most significant one ever).

Oh yeah, there were also a shitload of bad third-and-1 calls in every game as teams don’t seem to understand how important possession is in the postseason. Between the third-and-1 calls and the turnovers, there is a lot to go over here.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Cowboys at Buccaneers: Not with a Bang But a Whimper

So, was that it? We were fooled last year, but the Rams loss was really such a perfect game for Tom Brady to end his career with. But he just had to come back for this, an 8-10 finish with the worst offense of his career and an embarrassing home playoff loss in a 31-14 game that wasn’t even that close.

This letdown of the week against Dallas was so forgettable that I’m not even going to bother creating a separate link to cover it. I’ve just pasted it at the top of the week’s recap after 2 A.M. Hard to believe a playoff game with Brady, Mike McCarthy, and Dan Quinn could be this dull.

First, we were treated to five minutes of neither team looking like it could gain a first down. But once Dallas broke through with a touchdown, Brady had a long drive to answer going into the second quarter. After a weekend that was so competitive and dramatic, this was a wire-to-wire win that had one moment of competitiveness.

Then it was over in an instant after Brady forced a brutal pass from the 5-yard line and it was intercepted in the end zone, his first red-zone pick with the Buccaneers. What a time to make it.

The Cowboys drove 80 yards from there and Dak Prescott finished with the naked bootleg for a 1-yard touchdown run on a fourth down. He would also throw his second touchdown of the half to tight end Dalton Schultz, but kicker Brett Maher missed all three extra points in the half as Dallas led 18-0.

The Bucs looked terrible, but this rope-a-dope strategy has been their bread-and-butter all year. They had to make a run in the second half, right? Well, the Cowboys were still hot in the third quarter with another 86-yard touchdown drive to take a 24-0 lead that wasn’t 28-0 because Maher somehow missed four straight extra points.

It appears Gisele was the one with the dark magic, because Brady only seemed to have time to make a voodoo doll for Maher, his only source of luck in this game. According to Elias, Maher’s four misses are the most missed extra points in any game (regular season or postseason) in NFL history, and he did it on four in a row.

It’s still a nice addition to the list for the LOAT in maybe his final game, but this was a snoozer with no real drama in the second half.

From the ESPN broadcast, we learned that Tampa Bay was 3-for-59 (5%) on third down with 10+ yards to go this season, the worst by any offense since 1980. Throw in 0-for-5 in this game and that’s 3-for-64, one of my favorite new stats.

The Bucs would not go scoreless as Brady finally found Julio Jones, who looked as good as he did all year, for a 30-yard touchdown on the third quarter’s final play to make it 24-6.

But any hope of a wild fourth quarter was quickly put to rest by Prescott, who was money on the night. Bypassing a fourth-and-4 because of how bad Maher was, the Cowboys used a bunch formation and somehow got CeeDee Lamb wide open for an 18-yard touchdown, Dak’s fourth of the night to go along with 305 yards and a rush touchdown. Just by far his best playoff game, and the kind of performance you want to see from a 12-win team against an 8-9 fraud.

Brady had three more drives after that, and he got a touchdown on the second one. The Bucs also recovered an onside kick, just the fourth in the league this year, at the 2:00 warning, but it was too late by then. Mike Evans even dropped a long touchdown on one of the few good Brady throws of the night just to fvck my last bet.

It was amusing to not look at the stats once during this game and only check them after it was over. Brady finished with 66 passes but only 351 yards. Brady is the only quarterback in the Super Bowl era to throw 65-plus passes in a game and score fewer than 17 points. George Blanda once threw 68 passes in a 24-10 loss against the 1964 Bills in the AFL.

Home games where Tom Brady’s team trailed after all four quarters:

  • New England: 6-for-162 (3.7%)
  • Tampa Bay: 8-for-27 (29.6%)

The problems for the Bucs were the same they were all year in their worst moments. They were one-dimensional, they were ineffective on first down, seemingly every second down was a WR screen, and a dump pass to the running back was their best play. The deep shots were almost all bad, and Brady threw countless passes into the dirt as Micah Parsons and pass rush ate well against that line.

Dallas did just about everything very well but special teams. On the bright side, at least Maher made the extra point on his fifth try, so hopefully he will get that out of his system for next week in San Francisco. That’s where Dallas is headed after finally winning its first road playoff game since the 1992 NFC Championship Game in San Francisco. This is a way better matchup than having to watch Brady and this putrid offense against a team they trailed 35-0.

As for Brady’s future, he’ll have to decide that. I’m not sure this season could be any clearer that he should have never ended his retirement after 40 days. The 49ers aren’t going to want him when they have three better options in 2023. Any team he goes to is going to have to be stacked and in win-now mode, and there are almost none of them out there that don’t already have their quarterback.

Will he really think going to the AFC West at 46 years old, with the Raiders and Josh McDaniels, and dealing with Mahomes and Herbert (and maybe Russell Wilson with a good coach again) is a good path to get to the Super Bowl again?

The NFC South is still his safe haven, but this Tampa team is poorly coached and not good enough anymore to go on a deep run.

The same can be said of Brady, who without a Jared Cook fumble in New Orleans two years ago likely never gets out of the divisional round in the last four years. No matter where he goes to play next, they are going to be dealing with an old quarterback who doesn’t want to get hit anymore, doesn’t hold the ball to extend plays, doesn’t give you the rushing threat almost every starter has these days, and he’s going to throw passes in the dirt and bitch his teammates out on a weekly basis while looking miserable.

Even Michael Jordan knew better than to give the Wizards a third season or a third NBA team his services. Tom, just hang them up, and take the god damn FOX money so you can still be an annoying part of our NFL Sundays.

Ravens at Bengals: Clutch Defense to the Rescue for the Offensive Team Again

It is starting to get unfair, isn’t it? The young, offensive-driven team with the franchise quarterback, three great wide receivers, solid backs, a marginal offensive line, and a coach you still would struggle to pick out of a Costco cashier lineup is now 4-1 in the playoffs.

And once again, they used a clutch takeaway on defense with the game tied and the odds stacked against them.  

From the 1-yard line in a 17-17 game in the fourth quarter, Baltimore quarterback Tyler Huntley tried to extend the ball on a quarterback sneak on third down and had it swatted away, popped out right to Sam Hubbard, and he returned it 98 yards for a game-winning touchdown with 11:39 to play. It is the longest fumble return touchdown in NFL playoff history.

Given what was at stake, you could argue this is the first or second-biggest fumble return touchdown in NFL history. The only other game-winning fumble return touchdown in the fourth quarter or overtime of a playoff game was when Arizona’s Karlos Dansby got the ball after a strip-sack of Aaron Rodgers to beat Green Bay 51-45 in overtime in the 2009 NFC Wild Card. The Packers were deep in their own end at the time.

While there were still over 11 minutes left when this happened, the Ravens were in prime position to take a 24-17 lead on a night where the Bengals once again failed to crack 300 yards on this Baltimore defense. It’s happened all three times this year, though at least this one can be argued that they only had seven real drives.

But this was a massive swing in playoff win probability for a Super Bowl contender, and given the record length, you have to consider it right up there with any fumble return touchdown ever.

AFC North Race Changed on Lamar Jackson’s Health

The Bengals have not won a Super Bowl yet, but they were certainly close last year, and here they go again with their fourth one-score win in the postseason. The four playoff wins are double what the Ravens (2) have mustered as postseason wins in the last decade since winning Super Bowl 47. That’s also one more playoff win than Mike Tomlin (3) has in his last 12 seasons since losing Super Bowl 45.

But this year’s AFC North race was heavily tilted by Lamar Jackson’s knee injury in Week 13. The Ravens never scored more than 17 points in their final seven games after that injury.

The fact that they didn’t score more than 17 in this game would have surprised no one before the game, but if you tuned in for the fourth quarter, you were shocked to see how they crumbled in the moment this time.

Leading Up To the Historic Fumble

I pointed out multiple times this week that the Week 18 game between the Ravens and Bengals, which the Ravens played many backups for, featured 28 offensive drives. That is a gross number of drives for two offenses of playoff teams. There were a lot of punts and turnovers in that game.

But this game had just 16 possessions, and the Ravens even had two extra possessions than the Bengals, though not for the best reasons.

These teams thrived on long drives, but the Ravens seemed to capture some real belief in an upset after a quick-strike in the third quarter following Joe Burrow’s sneak touchdown to take a 17-10 lead back for Cincinnati. Huntley found Demarcus Robinson wide open for a 41-yard touchdown pass after he burned corner Eli Apple on a double move to tie the game.

The Bengals went three-and-out, and the Ravens began their fateful march as the game moved into the final frame. Just when it looked like another bad third-and-1 play was dialed up, Mark Andrews came down with a great 25-yard reception, his best play in a postseason game where he has been criticized for his lack of plays in the past.

But after a 35-yard run by Huntley set up first-and-goal at the 2, he really messed up by short-arming a throw in the flat to Patrick Ricard. The play was there, but Huntley missed his fullback. That led to the pivotal third-and-1, and obviously I am in favor of a quarterback sneak. But it looked like a full yard away or better, so when Huntley decided to leave his feet and stick the ball out, you kind of felt disaster was coming. Sure enough, the Bengals knocked it out and Hubbard made the record-setting return.

The lunge to stick the ball out on the sneak, often done so well by Drew Brees in his days, is really a last resort play. You can do it on fourth down or maybe a two-point conversion from the 1, but in this situation where you know the Ravens could just go for it on fourth down, it was really risky to do it on third down. A tactical error for sure.

Ravens Flopped After the Fumble

Unsurprisingly, the Ravens struggled to score the rest of the way. But the Ravens also got hosed on a weak roughing the punter call to extend a Cincinnati drive, though the Bengals failed to gain a first down on their final four series of plays. 

It looked like the Cincinnati offense was blowing it, and after a bad punt effort for the Bengals, Huntley had the ball back with 3:14 left at the Cincinnati 46 – tons of time and an incredible situation to be in for the underdog. You know John Harbaugh was going for two instead of overtime, but would the Ravens score too fast?

We should have been asking would they score at all, because the Ravens seemed to play the clock more than they remembered to call good plays. It took two minutes to move 18 yards. While everyone would love to score in the final seconds and win by one point, things rarely work out that nicely.

The Ravens even tried squeezing a run in only to be denied by a holding penalty. Huntley’s passes were not even close to connecting with a human being, and just like that it was fourth-and-20 from the Cincinnati 27 with 8 seconds left.

Hail Mary was the only choice. Huntley stumbled a bit before regaining himself, making the throw, and only on a deflection did the Ravens have a slight shot at a miracle catch before the ball hit the ground, ending their season and allowing the Bengals to double them up in playoff wins for the last decade.

Burrow the Babyface LOAT?

Cincinnati’s offense scored 17 points, did not have a single 20-yard play, did not have a single first down without penalty on the final four series, and yet they still won the game by the skin of their teeth against a backup quarterback.

That is some LOAT material if I’ve ever seen it, which was something I floated out repeatedly last postseason about Burrow turning into the new Tom Brady.

But this is already the third playoff game where Burrow’s defense forced a turnover in a tied fourth quarter or overtime. They intercepted Ryan Tannehill at midfield in the AFC divisional round last year to set up a game-winning field goal in the final minute. They intercepted Patrick Mahomes in overtime in the AFC Championship Game to set up another game-winning field goal. Now the longest fumble return touchdown in playoff history against the Ravens.

Since 2001, there have only been 16 turnovers in a tied fourth quarter or overtime in a playoff game. Burrow has been the beneficiary of 3-of-16. The only other quarterback with more than one was Drew Brees, who had two in the fourth quarter against the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game. Even Brady has never had one of these go his way if you can believe it. Burrow also threw an interception in Kansas City last January, so he has been involved directly or indirectly in the last four of these moments.

So, this is one area where Burrow is blowing the LOAT and everyone else out of the water.

But what’s not very LOAT like is losing a third starting linemen in the last three weeks as left tackle Jonah Williams left with a bad looking injury. Neither is having to go to Buffalo when the NFL should have considered this a neutral situation just as much as Bills-Chiefs, but I have all week to write about the future here.

Hell, I had to write three different previews this week for this one Ravens-Bengals game (four if you count the prediction blurb on this blog), so let’s just save the preview talk for later. But this game did turn out a lot better than I thought it would even though my predictions was Bengals 24-16. The Ravens are a tough out. But we may never see Jackson again in a Baltimore uniform, so this could be the end of an era there.

Meanwhile, the Bengals play on.

Giants at Vikings: Giant Streak Killers End Kevin O’Connell’s Run

It finally happened. The 2022 Vikings lost a one-score game after going 11-0 at them in the regular season. They failed at a comeback and game-winning drive opportunity after going 8-0 in them. Going back to last year’s Super Bowl run with the Rams, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell had streaks of 14-0 in close games, 11-0 at game-winning drives, and 10-0 at fourth-quarter comebacks.

They’re all over too as the best streak-killing franchise in the NFL ended another one:

  • It was the Giants who beat the 1934 Bears (13-0) in the NFL Championship Game.
  • It was the Giants who ended the 49ers’ three-peat Super Bowl attempt in the 1990 NFC Championship Game.
  • It was the Giants who beat the 1998 Broncos (13-0) to deny them a perfect season on their way to repeating.
  • It was the Giants who beat the 2007 Patriots (18-0) in Super Bowl 42 to deny 19-0 perfection.
  • Now it was the 2022 Giants who end another Minnesota season filled with history-making wins.

If you studied the game these teams played in Week 16, then you should have expected something close, high scoring, and dramatic. The teams did not disappoint. In fact, they were even better than expected.

I joked Saturday that Daniel Jones would throw for 300 yards and rush for 100 yards in Minnesota. He came close with 301 passing yards and 78 rushing yards, only the second quarterback in playoff history to hit those numbers. Lamar Jackson had 365 passing and 143 rushing in that upset loss to the 2019 Ravens when he had 83 dropbacks.

Jones only had 55 dropbacks, but it was one of the best games of his career, if not the best given the moment. He found plenty of open receivers and his legs were dynamic in the first half when he did most of his damage.

Kirk Cousins did not play a bad game by any means, and he was within reach of a ninth comeback and game-winning drive after leading the Vikings to a 24-24 tie in the fourth quarter as the teams traded long drive after long drive. On a weekend with many turnovers and short fields, it was refreshing to see a 31-24 game where all but one scoring drive was 75-plus yards.

But it was the Vikings’ game-tying field goal in the fourth quarter that was the shortest scoring drive at 56 yards. The Vikings were going to go for a fourth-and-1 at the New York 16, but they had to change course after a poor time for a false start.

Jones was no stranger to game-winning drives this year, and he led his sixth of 2022 by driving the Giants 75 yards for a touchdown. Isaiah Hodgins had a huge game with 108 yards and a touchdown, and he had a 19-yard catch on the go-ahead drive. Jones converted a fourth-and-1 run, and Saquon Barkley scored his second touchdown run in his first playoff game to take a 31-24 lead with half a quarter left.

The Vikings went three-and-out on an uninspiring drive, and it was starting to look like the close-game streak was on life support. But the Giants blew a shot to run out the clock after Darius Slayton spoiled a strong game by dropping a pass on third-and-15 with room to run, stopping the clock.

The lucky Vikings, the worst 13-win team in NFL history, were full of life again with just under 3:00 left and 88 yards away from the end zone. After a horrific roughing the passer penalty gifted them 15 yards and a first down, you could already see the 32-31 win coming after a two-point conversion. O’Connell was going to set more history with a fourth-straight playoff win by 1-to-3 points.

But after the Vikings got to midfield, things stalled. Cousins threw a good ball to K.J. Osborn on a third-and-8, but the defense held up, and maybe even got there a little early and held up Osborn. No flag. On fourth-and-ballgame, the Vikings ran a play that will be crucified for quite some time.

While T.J. Hockenson had a great game with over 100 yards again, he’s not exactly Rob Gronkowski with the ball in his hands. He wasn’t going to break a tackle on a 3-yard throw and pick up the first down with YAC. But that’s where Cousins threw the ball, and that’s how Minnesota’s season ended. All those record comebacks and they throw a full 5 yards short of the sticks on fourth down to a draped receiver.

It sure was a letdown and the kind of failed completion that Cousins is better known for than the comeback legend he was in 2022. But I have to say the design of the play was poor, and most of the receivers were too far away from the marker either way. Cousins could have just chucked up the ball to Justin Jefferson, because we know that’s worked before on fourth down. It probably gives them a better chance than what he ultimately did, but he didn’t take it after a quick pressure was in his face as the Vikings had a glaring offensive line issue that was part of their downfall.

But the Giants also did a fabulous job of taking Jefferson (7 catches for 49 yards) away, especially after an opening drive that saw him catch four balls for 30 yards. He had just 19 yards the rest of the way as the Giants made sure to keep an eye on him.

The Giants did not blitz much like they are known for doing, but like in Week 16, they did a great job of limiting the big plays against the Vikings. With Jefferson a non-factor after the first drive, they also took away the drive-sustaining plays he can make as he had 12 catches in Week 16. The Vikings were also outrushed by the Giants by Jones alone 78-to-61.

It is hard to put too much criticism on the Vikings’ offense. They scored three touchdowns and a field goal on eight drives. They just faltered in the fourth quarter, which is something I have been expecting since October. The fact that it came in a playoff game at home against the Giants is likely not just coincidence, but it says more about how well the Giants played in Week 16 than any playoff choking issue or curse on the franchise.

But Brian Daboll and his staff did an excellent job, and Jones was very sharp on the road. They’ll face a much tougher task in Philadelphia next week, but maybe this is their chance to get revenge for 2008 when the Eagles upset the top-seeded Giants and ended their repeat bid.

It is New York’s first playoff win since Super Bowl 46. As for the Vikings, they will be a very trendy pick for big regression next year in their record. But again, I’m not going to bother talking about that now when we have most of 2023 to point out how the Vikings just aren’t winning the close games like they were last year.

Because no one is this lucky to win every close game in the NFL. 

Dolphins at Bills: Buffalo Marathon Ends with Legitimate Scare

No one circles the wagons to barely beat the No. 7 seed by three points at home like the Buffalo Bills.

I am not sure how an NFL game can last nearly four hours without going to overtime, but if it wasn’t for Buffalo, No. 7 seeds would look illegitimate after three years of this playoff format.

The only No. 7 seeds to not lose by 12-plus points played at Buffalo: 2020 Colts lost 27-24 in a thriller and the Dolphins were a 14-point underdog but still had their shot in a 34-31 game in the fourth quarter.

You have to give Miami rookie coach Mike McDaniel a lot of credit for playing the Bills tough all three times despite having the lesser team. On Sunday, he was down to a third-string rookie quarterback and did not have his best running back (Raheem Mostert).

The Dolphins only rushed 20 times for 42 yards. Skylar Thompson was 18-of-45 passing for 220 yards, though he had several big drops, especially from Jaylen Waddle, who looked a bit soft in his playoff debut. Tyreek Hill was no Buffalo killer this year with 69 yards on seven catches and 15 targets.

But even with those abysmal numbers and an early 17-0 hole, this game was very close and a legitimate scare for the Bills, who have spent most of this year as the Super Bowl favorite. They were fortunate they didn’t have to face a healthy Tua Tagovailoa in this one.

It’s the Turnovers, Stupid

This was mostly a game because of turnovers, which isn’t surprising in the playoffs. But the Bills better get control of this, because turnovers are likely going to be the downfall to their season. They had a neutral turnover differential in the regular season with 27 giveaways (third most) and 27 takeaways. Not what you’d expect from a 13-3 team.

They lost the takeaway battle 2-3 in this one. We are still waiting to figure out what kind of playoff quarterback Josh Allen wants to be, and right now, a chaotic one is the best answer. He was absolutely brilliant in the two games last season, but between this game and his first two runs, he’s looking more like a Brett Favre (young and old) out there.

Even from the first drive of the game Allen was up to some shenanigans with the ball coming out of his grasp on a third-down run before it went out of bounds. Then he was picked on a deep ball by Xavien Howard with the Bills up 17-3 in the second quarter, and that started the comeback.

Khalil Shakir dropped a 54-yard pass from Allen, which came a few drives after Dawson Knox tried to use the ground to help him catch a touchdown, so it was a day filled with some amazing catches and some poor jobs by players on both teams at catching the ball.

But Buffalo was close to blowing them out before halftime. Sloppiness won out. Miami had settled for another field goal, and three plays later, Allen was intercepted again after trying to go for Cole Beasley. The Dolphins turned that into an 18-yard touchdown drive and game-tying two-point conversion, shocking the crowd, but not before the Bills added a field goal to take a 20-17 lead into the locker room after a two-hour half.

But the third quarter started worse with Allen getting stripped of the ball and seeing Miami recover it for a touchdown to take a 24-20 lead – Miami’s first third-quarter lead in a playoff game since playing Buffalo in the 1998 season. A long time ago.

Allen was sacked seven times with three turnovers on the day, and he started to press when trailing on two bad drives in a row. But this was where the Dolphins really missed an experienced quarterback, because they couldn’t take advantage of Buffalo’s implosion. On a third-and-19, Thompson made his dumbest play of the day to force a pass that was intercepted, putting the Bills at the Miami 33 and setting up an easy short field for a go-ahead touchdown. Miami never led again.

You can understand why teams like screens and draws in those situations. You’re unlikely to convert, so just get out of there with something safe. McDaniel miscalculated letting his rookie throw, and if he was going to throw, he should have just thrown a bomb instead of a ball that put Buffalo that close to the end zone for some much-needed help.

Closing It Out (Barely)

The Bills seemed back on track with consecutive touchdowns and a 34-24 lead, but like in Week 15, the Dolphins kept coming back. Another touchdown drive made it 34-31, and Allen was again pressing with sacks and incomplete shot plays. Allen also took back-to-back sacks in the four-minute offense and nearly lost another fumble.

But for all the good McDaniel did as an underdog here, the management of getting plays called in and getting the snap off in time was piss poor. The Dolphins also wasted two timeouts early in the half, and they even had to spend their third timeout with the clock stopped and 4:13 left. That really made their last drive in a 34-31 game do-or-die without any timeouts, and they botched that too by getting a delay of game penalty on a fourth-and-1 to make it fourth-and-5. I don’t know how you get caught trying to change personnel with under 15 seconds on the play clock on the biggest play of the game. I refuse to just blame the rookie quarterback for this problem that lasted most of the game.

Supposedly, McDaniel tried to justify the delay of game by saying they were told they had a first down and didn’t think it was fourth down. Either way, this was poorly managed throughout the game, and it hurt Miami.

On the fateful fourth down, Thompson’s pass to Mike Gesicki wasn’t bad but the defense was better. It was incomplete with 2:22 left. The Bills could run most of the clock out, and they did after Devin Singletary fought forward for a 7-yard gain on third-and-7.

At least that’s how they marked it on the field. You’ll never convince me he made the yard to gain, and it should have been fourth down. The Bills probably sneak it and get it anyway, or Miami probably doesn’t do anything with it in under 40 seconds. But I still would prefer to see a more legitimate ending, because it sure felt like Miami got screwed on that spot. 

Miami is the first double-digit underdog to cover the spread in the wild card round. Buffalo has been my pick all year to win the Super Bowl, but boy, let’s just hope the Dolphins had some secret sauce for them, or else this is going to be a fast exit.

Chargers at Jaguars: I Think This Just Might Be the Chargering Masterpiece

They have done it. In Justin Herbert’s 50th NFL start, the Chargers carved out their masterpiece by blowing a 27-0 playoff lead to the Jaguars in a 31-30 loss that would be shocking to most fanbases, but it was almost inevitable for the Chargers.

Not only is it the third-biggest playoff comeback and fifth-biggest comeback in NFL history, but the Jaguars pulled this one off against all odds after losing the turnover battle 5-0.

You are not supposed to beat the 3-13 Lions by going -5 in turnovers, let alone win a playoff game. But this is Chargering. The game will stand out in the record books for years to come:

  • Trevor Lawrence joins Bobby Layne, George Blanda, Joe Ferguson, and Russell Wilson as the only five quarterbacks to throw four interceptions and win a playoff game. Blanda was the only one to throw five picks. But those other four teams all had multiple takeaways in the win.
  • The Jaguars are the first team in NFL history to win a playoff game with five turnovers and no takeaways. Teams were 0-10 doing this. Jacksonville is the ninth team since 1970 to win a game doing this when you include the regular season.
  • Since 1950, NFL teams allowing 30-plus points with 5+ giveaways and no takeaways are now 3-164 (regular season and playoffs). The last win was 1970 Bills against the Jets.
  • This is the first time a team won a playoff game with a turnover margin of -5 or worse. Teams were previously 0-26 in the playoffs, and all but one lost by double digits.
  • In 50 starts, the Chargers have blown more 17-point leads (4) in Justin Herbert’s career than they did in the previous 19 seasons (3) from 2001-19 since they drafted Drew Brees.
  • The Jaguars had one comeback win from a deficit of 16+ points in their first 455 games. They have three such comebacks in their last 10 games (17 vs. Raiders, 17 vs. Cowboys, 27 vs. Chargers).
  • The Jaguars had lost 41 straight games when allowing more than 20 points. After snapping that streak against Baltimore in Week 12, they are 4-1 in such games.

But much like how the Colts didn’t really deserve a 33-0 lead against the Vikings four weeks ago, the story of this game was a fortunate start by the Chargers that they weren’t playing well enough to sustain. The Jaguars have been making comebacks lately, and we know the Chargers are the right team in the AFC to pull one off against.

Digging the 27-0 Hole

Trevor Lawrence was the quarterback who never lost a Saturday game in his career, and he never threw a first-quarter interception in the NFL, a fact I wasn’t aware of until Saturday night. But he threw three interceptions in this first quarter, a fourth in the second, and the Jaguars also muffed a punt. Lawrence joined Tom Brady (vs. 2009 Ravens) as the only quarterbacks since 2001 to turn the ball over three times in the first quarter of a playoff game.

Right from his first pass, a double-deflected ball at the line that was intercepted, you knew we might be in for an adventure. That helped Justin Herbert to an easy 18-yard touchdown drive where Austin Ekeler did most of the work on a 13-yard scoring run to take a 7-0 lead.

Lawrence was then picked off on a fourth-and-7 by Asante Samuel Jr., though I felt there was an arm grab and it could have easily been penalized. He must have been watching his dad’s tape with the 2000s Patriots for how to get away with contact in big games. The Chargers turned that into a field goal and 10-0 lead.

But after some bad luck with a double tip and no penalty call, Lawrence’s third interception (also to Samuel Jr.) was an abysmal decision. That set up a 16-yard touchdown drive that was all Ekeler runs. In one quarter of his playoff career, Herbert had more touchdown drives that started in the red zone (2) than Peyton Manning (1) had in his first 25 playoff games.

What the hell was going on out there? The Jaguars were destroying my narrative of Herbert becoming this quarterback with the weight of the world on his shoulders every postseason, and now he’s getting every break in the world. Herbert had several passes tipped and deflected in this game, yet they all kept harmlessly hitting the ground. If Lawrence threw them, they would have been picked. It was the No. 1 pick who was looking like the unlucky one.

But Herbert had a few good third-and-long throws on another touchdown drive to get a 24-0 lead. Lawrence threw his fourth pick and third to Samuel, but this was the beginning of the turning point for the game.

The Turning Point

The Chargers did not do anything with Lawrence’s fourth pick, going three-and-out. However, the Jaguars gave them the ball right back by muffing the punt return, setting Herbert up at the Jacksonville 6, a golden opportunity for a third touchdown drive that started in the red zone. Even Tom Brady would be jealous of this.

But Herbert badly missed a wide-open Keenan Allen in the end zone and the Chargers had to settle for a field goal and 27-0 lead. Would things have been different if Mike Williams (back) was active? Maybe, but he’s not 10-foot-tall either. Herbert just missed it badly.

But this sequence has a lot to do with why the Jaguars survived a five-turnover meltdown, because they basically consolidated their last two turnovers into one part of the game, and it only cost them a quick 3 points after the Chargers failed in goal-to-go.

Still, that was only one of two golden opportunities the Chargers blew in the second quarter. The next part, which officially got the comeback going, was when the Chargers got cute on a third-and-1 and tried to do a jet sweep to Michael Bandy. The timing was off, the ball was fumbled, and it nearly ended up being a disastrous turnover.

At 27-0, you still had to view it live as a “wow, Chargers are just getting everything to go their way” moment by them not losing possession and giving Jacksonville a short field. However, it was a disastrous moment as the Chargers could have put this game away with a two-minute drill and taking a 30-0 or 34-0 lead into halftime.

Instead, Jacksonville took advantage of a bad punt and short field to finally get on the board with a touchdown drive, converting a fourth-and-1 along the way, for a 27-7 deficit at halftime.

If you know the Chargers well, you know this was going to be a game again.

The Second-Half Comeback

I’m obviously not going to put this blown lead all on Herbert, but he did have some costly misfires and didn’t do much to help after the big lead, a lead that he didn’t do much to earn.

To start the third quarter, he had three straight incomplete passes at the Jacksonville 38, and the Chargers punted instead of getting more points. The Jaguars turned that into a long touchdown drive to make it 27-14. Gerald Everett caught a ball for 21 yards that was actually a drop, but the Jaguars did not challenge in time, so that was a big drive starter that helped the Chargers to a field goal to make it 30-14.

But they would never score again. Lawrence got hot, Zay Jones scored a 39-yard touchdown, and Joey Bosa got heated with his first unsportsmanlike penalty. The Chargers led 30-20 going into the fourth quarter.

But here is where head coach Brandon Staley really blew the game for his team. I even tweeted that we’re going to find out how smart he is if he acknowledges how much better a 17-point lead is than a 13-point lead is better than 10. He had to be thinking touchdown on a long drive, but the Chargers came up short just outside the 20.

There was a holding penalty that would have made it third-and-13, but the Jaguars declined. Had they knew that Staley would go for this fourth-and-3 like he should have, then maybe Doug Pederson accepts that penalty. But Staley was content with the field goal and the kiss of death known as a 13-point lead.

He got what he deserved as Dicker the Kicker remembered which team he plays for and missed a 40-yard field goal, bringing a tear to Nate Kaeding’s eye somewhere in the galaxy.

Had the Chargers been focused on the three-score lead, they could have wrapped this one up. But Lawrence continued to drive his offense and found Christian Kirk for a 9-yard touchdown with 5:25 left. Bosa was again penalized for throwing his helmet in a fit of rage after he felt the officials missed a false start on the touchdown. I certainly think they missed it too.

But by enforcing the penalty on the extra point, the Jaguars could go for two from the 1-yard line, which is the right call in that spot. Lawrence used his size to do the sneak with full extension, and the Jaguars were only down 30-28.

This was happening for sure now. Just a question of how the finish would look.

Once Herbert took a sack on first down, you knew Lawrence was getting his chance for a game-winning field goal. The Chargers went three-and-out and Lawrence had 3:09 from his own 21, plenty of time.

But a very poor decision to throw on a third-and-1 put the drive in jeopardy with 1:27 left and just out of field-goal range. I’m not sure why you wouldn’t run Travis Etienne there against the No. 32 run defense in yards per carry. On fourth-and-1, it looked like the Jaguars were going to do the trendy push sneak, and they went with a big formation that felt like trouble for them getting a push.

But with a risky call that worked out great, they pitched the ball to Etienne on the edge and he turned up the field for a 25-yard gain and even stayed in bounds to burn more clock. That set up kicker Riley Patterson for a 36-yard field goal on the final play, and he nailed it to complete the comeback and get the 31-30 win.

Doug Pederson is now 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU as a playoff underdog. This is his first playoff win without Nick Foles.

It looks like Staley is going to survive another year, but his mismanagement of Week 18 and this game, among other things this year, cast real doubt that he’s ever going to lead this team to anywhere but disappointment.

This was a game about field position early. The Chargers scored 27 points on their first seven drives because three started in the red zone and all of them started at the Los Angeles 32 or better. But they managed just one field goal on their last five drives, all of which started inside their own 25.

Once the Jaguars stopped gifting the Chargers short fields, the game completely turned around. Lawrence did a wonderful job of shaking off a brutal start in his first playoff game to deliver.

As for Herbert, he was kind of like Matt Ryan four weeks ago in Minnesota. He was more of a supporting actor than the driving force behind the lead or a significant part of the choke.

Never in doubt. But after a wild start, the Chargers remembered they are the team we thought they were, and they let Jacksonville off the hook with a Chargering masterpiece.

Seahawks at 49ers: When You Break a Sammy Baugh Record…

The first game of the weekend feels like ages ago thanks to the excessively long Buffalo game and the journey we had to take from Jacksonville’s 27-0 deficit to a win.

But San Francisco’s 41-23 win was interesting in that it produced arguably the best playoff game by a rookie quarterback since pre-World War II days in the NFL.

We knew Brock Purdy had this streak going of six straight games with multiple touchdown passes, and only Justin Herbert (2020) had done that in seven straight among rookies. We also know Purdy usually throws for 200 yards, but you have to go back a long way to find a time a rookie quarterback put up numbers like that in the playoffs and his team won.

Of the few rookie quarterbacks to win a playoff game, most did it the game manager way, like a Joe Flacco (2008) or Mark Sanchez (2009). They’re the only two to win two playoff games, but Purdy has a chance to join them after he threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns against Seattle.

  • You have to go back to Bob Waterfield in 1945 to find the last rookie quarterback to throw two touchdowns in a playoff win.
  • You have to go back to Sammy Baugh in 1937 to find the last rookie quarterback to throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns in a playoff win.
  • Hell, Baugh was the last rookie to throw for 200 yards in a win way back in 1937 too, but that’s the company Purdy keeps now.

Baugh and Waterfield did it in championship games, so you can say that’s a lot more impressive in that era than facing the 9-8 Seahawks. But Purdy belongs high on a list of best playoff debuts for any quarterback regardless of age.

Was it all pretty? No, I counted four or five risky throws that a better defense (or a luckier one) may make him pay for in future rounds. Deebo Samuel also showed his world-class YAC with a 74-yard touchdown that was all him. But I did like the improv skills that Purdy showed on his two touchdown passes to the running backs, and he made an incredible play in the fourth quarter to Brandon Aiyuk that was unfortunately dropped in the end zone as Aiyuk had to focus on getting his feet in bounds and forgot his hands.

Where the hell did they find this kid? That one incompletion there is something you won’t see many quarterbacks make in many years of playing. Like, some could play 23 years and literally never do anything close to this.

So I definitely came away intrigued even more with Purdy. As for the rest of the game, you have to say Seattle did a good job for three quarters. They survived the early Kyle Shanahan script, Geno Smith was calm in his playoff debut, they strung together plays, DK Metcalf showed up for a great game, and they even got a penalty on a late hit that set up a field goal and Seattle led 17-16 at the half.

But that Deebo YAC on a third-down short of the sticks led to a huge first down out of the break, and the 49ers were back on top 23-17 with Purdy’s 1-yard rushing touchdown. But I really thought at this point that Geno was dialed in and about to show this defense is falling apart at the wrong time. He converted a third-and-12, the Seahawks were driving into the red zone, then the ineligible man downfield penalties started hitting hard.

It was third-and-14, and one quick pressure led to Smith coughing up the ball, and Nick Bosa was there for the recovery with 2:25 left in the quarter. Total game changer and the 49ers rolled from there. The offense scored another touchdown to go up 31-17, Seattle’s line again self-destructed with penalties to bring up third-and-22, which led to a punt, and that’s when Samuel turned on the jets for the 74-yard dagger to make it 38-17.

Geno immediately threw a pick out of desperation and maybe frustration, and the 49ers just used that to burn more clock and add a field goal after Aiyuk failed to hang onto that play above. Seattle would add a touchdown to make it 41-23 but only 1:48 remained and the game ended after a failed onside kick.

An overmatched Seattle played this very well for three quarters, but when you have four different players capable of a 30-yard play for the 49ers, it was too much offense to handle.

Based on the way the other teams have looked in recent weeks, it is hard not to think the 49ers have all the right stuff to beat anyone and be the legitimate favorite to win it all. I don’t even know what we’re going to do with Purdy if he literally throws multiple touchdowns every week and wins every game on his way to a Super Bowl. He’d be leading the No. 1 scoring offense most likely since he took over. The only thing close to this is Kurt Warner’s story with the 1999 Rams, and while I’m not ready to say Purdy looks that accurate or great, it’s the only historical comparison we really have.

The kid just matched a Sammy Baugh record from 1937. What are we even supposed to do with this info? You expect it all to go horribly wrong in a game or two because he is a rookie and Kyle Shanahan is his head coach, but what if it doesn’t?

Maybe this is just their year.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 15

~ Scott ~ 8 Comments

When your weekend starts with the biggest comeback in NFL history, you know things are going to be wilder than usual. The NFL’s Week 15 can lay claim to being the wildest week of the 2022 season with a record 33-point comeback, two more 17-point comebacks, three overtime games won on touchdowns, two non-offensive game-winning touchdowns, a snowy fourth quarter classic in Buffalo, and we still have to see what Baker Mayfield can do in Green Bay on Monday night.

After a lack of drama and lead changes in Week 14, the week I called the worst of the year, every single game but one was within one score at some point in the fourth quarter. It took the greatest kicker of all time having a 50-yard field goal blocked in his face to not have it happen in 100% of the games this week.

That does not mean we had 15 games with a comeback opportunity. We had 11 for the first time since Week 5 now that the bye weeks are over. But what a week it was with plenty to recap.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Colts at Vikings: The Biggest Comeback/Collapse in NFL History

For a special recap of this historic game, check out my feature, The 2022 Vikings Are Young, Dumb, and Full of Comebacks

Giants at Commanders: Fumbles and Bad Refs

We finally had a winner in Giants-Commanders this year despite how close this was to going to overtime with the score 20-20 again. But Taylor Heinicke and Washington had a brutal night at the ends of each field. The Giants got back on track with a win thanks to the familiar formula of pressure defense and grinding out the fourth quarter.

The Commanders could have taken control early like they did two weeks ago when these teams met, but a third-down sack of Heinicke knocked them out of field goal range on the opening drive, then rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux had perhaps his play of the season with a strip-sack returned for a touchdown in the second quarter.

Washington trailed 17-9 to start the fourth quarter but struggled to hold onto the ball and put it in the end zone. Antonio Gibson narrowly avoided another lost fumble on a drive that ended with a 51-yard field goal two plays later to make it 17-12. Just like two weeks ago, the Giants couldn’t put things away on offense despite driving into Washington territory.

But after Heinicke hit a deep ball to Jahan Dotson for 61 yards, that drive would also stall after he was strip-sacked for the second time on third-and-goal with 6:06 left. The Giants added another 50-yard field goal to make it 20-12, but we were in almost the exact same situation as two weeks ago with Heinicke having the ball with a chance to tie. The clock was less favorable, and they would need a two this time, but it was very close to the same thing.

The Giants also looked like they were going to blow it again on a night that showed the Commanders have a really nice trio of wide receivers in Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and rookie Dotson. But do you know who apparently are not fans of this receiving trio? The refs. After a Heinicke scramble set up third-and-goal from the 1, Brian Robinson’s touchdown plunge was nullified by an illegal formation penalty on McLaurin.

This is the kind of thing you could struggle to notice at the snap, and according to former official Terry McAuley via NBC broadcast, this was a weak call that did not need to be made. McLaurin says the ref told him he was lined up fine, so make of that what you will.

But the big stink came on fourth-and-6. Heinicke threw a pass out of desperation to Samuel in the end zone, and corner Darnay Holmes was there early, interfered with Samuel, but no flag was thrown for defensive pass interference. Game over, Giants win.

Now in that video, Holmes is perfectly fine at the beginning. Samuel even uses his right hand to push Holmes away at the 7-second mark. But after that push creates some separation, you can see Holmes panic and start to ride Samuel’s back at 9-10 seconds. By 12 seconds, he decides to grab onto the receiver’s chest with both hands and leap on his back again to help knock the ball away.

What more do you need for DPI? Oh yeah, I guess it would help if Samuel was Mike Evans and Heinicke was Tom Brady, because we know that is getting flagged 100% of the time if they were involved. It would also have gone the way of Davante Adams no matter if Aaron Rodgers or Derek Carr threw him the ball, and the same is true for Mahomes and Kelce, or any other star players you want to throw into the mix.

Officials call the game differently at the very end of the game even though a foul is a foul is a foul. Call it preferential treatment or giving the benefit of the doubt, but some players tend to get calls others wouldn’t from refs too. That’s just an unfortunate part of the game.

What can be done to change that? I’m not sure. I just know it is a very bad look for the league when NBC’s rules expert (McAuley), a former official himself, can quickly look at these plays and call the illegal formation unnecessary and the missed DPI blatant.

I am not saying we need a game where every play in the final 2:00 is highly scrutinized and reviewed for every possible little penalty. But maybe some kind of “eye in the sky” in New York with all the best angles and replays can quickly be the third-party ruler in these cases and come up with the best calls for game-deciding plays like this one.

But they know we’re still going to watch the next game no matter how bad the last call (or no call) was.

Patriots at Raiders: Belichick Is Going to Bury Jakobi Meyers with Joe Pesci in the Desert

Bill Belichick is now 11-12 against his former New England assistants, including an 0-2 record against Josh McDaniels. But in none of those games did his team ever look as stupid and undisciplined as they did in Vegas.

Forget that play. We’ll get to that. Before the final minute, you had the Patriots completely botch a goal-to-go sequence, blow a coverage on a second-and-20 resulting in a Darren Waller touchdown, have a punt blocked, and Mac Jones struggled to throw for 100 yards.

But the nice thing was they were playing the 2022 Raiders. Despite leading 17-3, you know this team forgets there are two halves to each game. Once again, the Raiders blew a two-touchdown lead after some big plays by the Patriots quickly put together a go-ahead touchdown drive with 3:43 left. New England went from trailing 17-3 to leading 24-17.

Derek Carr adopted the Brady approach of “suck fast and hope for DPI” after throwing three incomplete passes, the last being a deep ball on third down that almost connected with Mack Hollins. But since the drive was so bad and only consumed 27 seconds (punt included), Carr was going to get another shot, because you knew the Patriots would be conservative with Jones and the lead.

In fact, Carr had 2:11 left to tie it. The game could have been over with a four-and-out, but the New England defense lost Hollins on the sideline for a 12-yard gain to keep the game alive. On a play that should quiet the Raiders fans who think the refs are always out to get them, the Raiders were ruled to have scored a touchdown when Keelan Cole hauled one in the back of the end zone from 30 yards out with 32 seconds left.

There was a video of what looked like his one foot may have been on the white and out of bounds. But this was one of those plays where it stood just because you had to stay with the call on the field, which was a touchdown. Had they ruled it incomplete on the field, it likely would have stayed incomplete and brought up third down.

Tough one for Patriots fans, but they have a long way to go to make up for all the crap that went their way the last two decades. The game was only tied and likely headed for overtime, except the Patriots did one of the dumbest things in NFL history:

We have seen fumbles returned for touchdowns on the final play of the game before. It happened when Washington upset the Eagles this year. It happened to the Raiders in overtime in Arizona when Hunter Renfrow coughed up the ball.

But those were different situations. You don’t see a team try to lateral in a tied game with overtime in their back pocket, because that would be stupid for the exact reason we saw. I just said the other day that Chandler Jones was having the worst season of his career, but hey, at least he has a highlight play for the rest of his life to enjoy.

I don’t actually mind the initial lateral from Rhamondre Stevenson. It was risky and it wasn’t planned that way, but he made a decent play. But if you are Meyers, who says he knew it was tied and not meant to be a lateral, then how in the world do you make that lateral that far back into the field of play because you thought Mac Jones was open?

Him?

If he can’t throw a Hail Mary from his 45, he wasn’t going to do anything here. Just an incredibly bad decision by Meyers and maybe even a worse throw as that ball was right to Chandler Jones and nowhere close to Mac Jones. If Kendrick Bourne or Nelson Agholor made the play Meyers did, they probably get cut Monday.

With games coming up against the Bengals, Dolphins, and Bills, the Patriots (7-7) are likely toast for the playoffs. When you look at the roster, it makes sense. But you never expect the Patriots to do something so incredibly stupid like they did on Sunday.

That’s what you expect the Raiders to do.

Dolphins at Bills: Buffalo Powder Is Different Than Miami Powder

Unlike Sunday night, this was just a great, dramatic game between two quality division rivals in Buffalo on Saturday night. I could watch these teams play a best-of-seven if things are going to be as good and interesting as the first two games this year.

I had been waiting since Week 3 to see this rematch, because I thought the Bills shot themselves in the foot that game and blew it way more than Miami found a way to win it. I was ultimately wrong about the Bills blowing them out here in the cold, but it was a great game with neither team able to lead by more than one possession.

The much-hyped snow did not arrive until the fourth quarter, but when it did, that made every snap an adventure down the stretch. But the game was filled with intrigue as a better version of Tua Tagovailoa showed up than the last two weeks. But the biggest surprise was Raheem Mostert (136 yards) giving the Dolphins a dominant run attack they haven’t had this year.

That’s what made the fourth quarter so questionable when the Dolphins took to the air on six of their final seven plays after the snow started. How do you not feed Mostert on a third-and-1? Instead, Tua threw a quick pass that lost 2 yards and the Dolphins settled for a 47-yard field goal.

Allen made up for his strip-sack on the previous drive with an excellent 44-yard run and a great touchdown throw to Dawson Knox for a 5-yard score. Allen dove for the end zone on the game-tying two-point conversion, and despite NFL Network cutting to a commercial break long enough for analyst Mark Sanchez to scarf down two hot dogs, the play was good and not a fumble as it appeared.

Miami’s pass-happy drive in a tied game with the snow coming down just did not make sense to me. The Bills had the ball back with 5:56 left in a 29-29 game. Allen led a drive as good as any in his career with pinpoint accuracy and sharp decision making. When any little slip or bad bounce of the ball in the increasingly slick conditions could end the game, this was impressive stuff in a very important game. I would say he’s put himself back in the MVP race if the losses to the Jets and Vikings weren’t so damaging.

Devin Singletary pulled up short of a go-ahead touchdown with 34 seconds left, which was probably the smartest thing to do in that spot. The field was cleaned off by Buffalo players well enough to give kicker Tyler Bass a very fair shot at a 25-yard field goal. He nailed it and the Bills won 32-29 and should be the AFC East champs when it’s all said and done.

I still think Miami is a playoff team this year, but with its second three-game losing streak of the year, you can see how the inexperience with success is hurting Mike McDaniel and Tua.

After zero game-winning drives in the 2021 season, the Bills are already up to four engineered by Allen this year (at Ravens, at Chiefs, at Lions, and vs. Dolphins). When you take away someone like Von Miller, on top of a loss like safety Micah Hyde, it is going to be more of a grind for this team. There is no easy path to the Super Bowl in this AFC.

More and more, the AFC is looking like a three-team race that will be a repeat of last year: two coin-flip games between the trio of Buffalo, Kansas City, and Cincinnati. Fortunately, we get to see the Bills and Bengals in prime time in Week 17, the first matchup between Allen and Joe Burrow in their NFL careers.

Eagles at Bears: Just Some Hiccups

How did Jalen Hurts fare in his first game as the odds-on MVP favorite this year? He probably played his worst game of the season with two early picks, but he still finished with 376 total yards (315 passing) and scored three rushing touchdowns in a 25-20 win.

The Bears did their usual thing: plenty of rushing yards, some good highlights from Justin Fields, but not good on third down, not enough passing, and no fourth-quarter comeback despite the Eagles letting them hang around in a 17-13 game after a doinked field goal attempt.

A.J. Brown got open for a 68-yard catch that set up Hurts’ third touchdown to basically wrap it up at 25-13 with 4:20 left. The Eagles had some blown coverage on a 35-yard touchdown to Byron Pringle with 2:42 left, but Philadelphia was able to convert one more third down to Brown to move the chains and end the game with a 25-20 win to move to 13-1.

A better team could have made the Eagles pay in that first half, but Fields had some really bad plays on third-and-1 early, and too many sacks (six for 61 yards) on the day.

The Eagles will not go into their big game with Dallas next week at their sharpest like the last three weeks, but after the way Dallas has played against Houston and Jacksonville, does it matter? Even a Dallas win is unlikely to cost the Eagles the No. 1 seed. Still, I am surprised to see the Cowboys are a 1.5-point home favorite next Saturday.

Cowboys at Jaguars: The Return of McCarthyism

If Houston was supposed to be the wake-up call for this Dallas team to get its shit together before the showdown with the Eagles, then the message was initially received. Then in the third quarter, (Mike) McCarthyism crept in and this team fell apart, blowing a 27-10 lead and losing 40-34 in overtime.

I do not know if the Jaguars are legitimately turning it around after a 2-6 start, or if they’re just the lucky beneficiaries of playing two of the worst teams ever to hold leads (Raiders and Ravens), a Tennessee team during its worst losing streak in years, and now this Dallas team that should have lost to Houston a week ago.

I do know turnovers have played a crucial part in Jacksonville’s recent wins against Baltimore, Tennessee, and now Dallas. A Dak Prescott interception late in the third quarter set the Jaguars up 39 yards away from another touchdown to quickly make this very interesting after it was 27-10 not even three minutes before that.

Like last week against Houston, Prescott would atone for his mistake with a 75-yard touchdown drive, finding Noah Brown for another 13-yard score to take a 34-31 lead. The great Dallas defense we keep hearing about? It mostly did its job the rest of the way. Trevor Lawrence put a nasty spin move on the defense, but he got a bit greedy on the play and fumbled in Dallas territory with 1:28 left.

It wasn’t a dagger with the Jaguars having all three timeouts left, but the Cowboys botched this drive. Two runs for net 0 yards by each back, then Dak tried to throw a deep one to Brown that fell incomplete. The Cowboys burned 27 seconds and even saved the Jaguars a timeout, which they desperately needed.

With CeeDee Lamb catching all seven targets on the day – he had five of the offense’s seven longest gains – I think you have to be aggressive and work an early-down pass in there, maybe off play-action. If the end result is just going to be giving them the ball back anyway with time to do something, then I am giving my best players a chance to end things on offense.

Lawrence had 1:01 to get a field goal and he needed just about every second of it. Zay Jones was the big target on the day with three touchdowns, and his 19-yard catch to the Dallas 30 was a game saver. The game is over there if the Jaguars didn’t have that last timeout. Silly Cowboys.

The Jaguars were good from 48 yards out on the field goal to send it to overtime. The Dallas defense again did a great job to force a three-and-out. But after a few Tony Pollard runs, Dak’s first dropback in overtime was a disaster with a tipped ball going to Rayshawn Jenkins for a 52-yard game-winning pick-six.

You just can’t trust these teams this year. It would be such a McCarthy thing to restore false hope and beat the Eagles next week. But guess what? The Eagles are unlikely to be caught for the No. 1 seed, let alone the division at this point.

We would really be looking at the NFC’s Game of the Year next week in Dallas if this team didn’t blow a 14-point fourth-quarter lead in Green Bay and a 17-point third-quarter lead in Jacksonville.

13-1 at 12-2 on Christmas Eve? Hell yeah, that would have been a spectacle. But if you’re talking about the NFC Game of the Year this season, the answer has never been more obvious what that should be.

It’s the 49ers at Eagles in the NFC Championship Game. It sure isn’t a game involving this Dallas team.

Bengals at Buccaneers: Joe Burrow Pulls the Remaining Horseshoe Out of Tom Brady’s Ass

If I told you a team in this game blew a 17-0 lead by doing a stupid fake punt, turning the ball over four times in a row, which set up three touchdowns inside the opponent’s 40-yard line, then wasted a huge fourth-down sack with a tacky 5-yard penalty, you’d bet everything you owned on the team who blew it being Cincinnati, right?

Well, this was some role reversal. This game went from nauseating (blame Tony Romo’s hard-on for Tom Brady) to hilarious in record time. The Bengals trailed 17-0 late in the first half and got into the locker room with 83 yards, the worst first half for any Joe Burrow start in his career. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers actually looked like a competent, balanced team like they were in 2020-21.

But before I could even start joking that Brady at age 45 plays tighter defense on Burrow’s receivers than Mahomes or Allen could ever dream of, this one took a sharp turn in the third quarter. The Buccaneers tried a fake punt from their own 26, and the direct snap to Gio Bernard seemed to catch him by surprise, and the play failed. The Bengals only got a field goal out of it, but better than nothing.

Then Brady threw a pick as he tried to make one of those very low throws to a diving receiver, but he got the defender instead. Still, his defense looked like it was going to force a four-and-out after Burrow took a 23-yard sack on fourth-and-3, or one of the worst plays you’ll ever see a quarterback make. However, he was bailed out by a defensive holding penalty on Lavonte David.

If Kevin O’Connell stole part of Brady’s lucky horseshoe back in January with the Rams, then Burrow must have snuck in there at halftime to extract the other piece lodged up Brady’s ass. This turnaround was absurd.

The Bengals turned that first turnover into a touchdown. Three plays later, Brady was strip-sacked and the Bengals were 13 yards away from the lead, which they took quickly at 20-17.

How about three in a row? Brady was just trying to hand off on a running play, and I’ve never seen the ball just pop right out of a quarterback’s hand when he was about to do so. The ball never got to the back and that goes down as another turnover for Brady.

The Bengals turned that into a touchdown too on a drive from 39 yards out with Ja’Marr Chase getting in on the action. Burrow even got away with a dropped interception or two this half. Everything was clicking for our young LOAT.

But Brady could come back, right? Cue the DPI throw to Mike Evans, and this was still a ballgame at 27-17. But nope. Under pressure, Brady’s pass fluttered from the contact and the Bengals came up with a diving interception and great defensive effort for the fourth straight turnover. That one only led to a quick three-and-out, but it changed field position, and Tampa responded with a three-and-out back. Perhaps a curious decision to punt on fourth-and-1 from your own 11 with 9:26 left after the game this team was having.

This time, Burrow put together a more legitimate drive on a longer field (62 yards) and he put away the Bucs with his fourth touchdown pass to a fourth different receiver. He even drew the Bucs offsides on a fourth down during the drive.

Brady added a 75-yard touchdown drive in garbage time to get the Bucs to 23 points for just the second time in 2022, but the Bengals recovered the onside kick to end it at 34-23.

I should be enjoying this Tampa Bay season a lot more than I am, and I know I would had the Rams and Saints not blown those two games against them. This team should be 4-10 right now, last place in the worst division. But ever since Week 1, I felt it was inevitable they were going to win the division and get rewarded with a home playoff game. Even as they continue to lose, I still think the odds of them beating Dallas in the wild card round in Tampa are incredibly high.

But this was still stunning because they went from looking the most competent they have all season to just a pure disaster all around.

Are the Bucs the first team in NFL history to give up at least a 34-0 scoring run in back-to-back weeks? They were down 35-0 to the 49ers last week. The quick answer is no. The 1961 Raiders were shut out 55-0 and 44-0 to start their season 0-2 if you can believe that. The 1978 Colts also did really bad with 38-0 and 42-0 losses to begin their season.

But for Brady, eight days ago he had only experienced a team scoring more than 31 straight points on him once (2020 Saints led 38-0 and won 38-3). Now it’s happened the last two games.

I just hope this doesn’t somehow end up as the Super Bowl matchup, because there is no way the Bengals are repeating this.

Chiefs at Texans: Just Needed the Rosencopter

The comparison of Peyton Manning to Patrick Mahomes wouldn’t be complete without a hard-fought win in Houston against the Texans when you least expect it. But the Chiefs are now 4-9-1 ATS, second-worst record in the league, after failing to cover a 14.5-point spread that was, frankly, ridiculous for a road team. Not to mention what happened with these teams a week ago.

This would have been a brutal loss for the Chiefs as they had nearly 300 more yards (502-219) than the Texans. But once again it was the turnovers that kept it close, and it was a turnover that made sure the Chiefs would still win.

This week it was not one but two obligatory fumbles by the Chiefs, including one from Isiah Pacheco and one from JuJu Smith-Schuster. JuJu’s led to the Texans taking a 21-16 lead into the fourth quarter.

But Patrick Mahomes used his legs again on a 5-yard scramble for a touchdown run. He completed the two-point conversion pass and the Chiefs led 24-21. But like I said in Week 11 after the Chargers game, we got to see what is becoming the signature Mahomes comeback. He leads them from behind with a go-ahead touchdown, the defense gives it up, then he still gets the win with a touchdown anyway.

But this one had no business going to overtime like that. After the Texans used a long drive to kick a game-tying field goal, Mahomes had the Chiefs right back in scoring range thanks to a 14-yard scramble on another third down. But instead of trying to get a little closer for a kicker who had missed another extra point, Andy Reid seemed content with staying conservative and settling for a long field goal. A designed run by Mahomes for 2 yards and a RB screen that lost a yard prove that.

Butker has been solid from long range, but from 51 yards out with 12 seconds left, he was wide right and the Chiefs were going to overtime. The Chiefs won another coin toss, but Mahomes made one of his few mistakes in the game by taking a sack on third down that knocked the offense out of field goal range.

But Davis Mills immediately returned the favor on a scramble when Frank Clark knocked the ball out and the Chiefs recovered. All that was missing was Mills spinning through the air a la the Rosencopter.

Unable to trust Butker, the Chiefs couldn’t just take a knee from the 26. With Pacheco fumbling earlier, the Chiefs turned to Jerick McKinnon, who has been money for them as of late. He immediately ripped off a 26-yard touchdown run against a run defense I crap on every single week in previews, prop picks, and recaps. That was the right call for sure, and while Mahomes gets a cheap game-winning TD drive, he should have had the game won on a field goal in regulation. Mahomes had the highest QBR (92.3) in Week 15.

Still, it turns out to be the fifth time that Mahomes has led a fourth-quarter comeback win with two go-ahead touchdown drives. That’s already more than the total Aaron Rodgers (two), Peyton Manning (one), and Tom Brady (one) have in their careers combined.

Mahomes finished 36-of-41 passing, setting an NFL record for highest completion percentage (87.8%) in a game with at least 40 pass attempts. He hit his last 20 passes, starting with a great touchdown grab by Marquez Valdes-Scantling to end the first half. He also had the two-point conversion pass in there, so it’s arguably 21 in a row.

Mahomes didn’t hit anything deep in this game as the Chiefs dinked and dunked and picked the Texans apart in the 0-15 yard range. They used short passes as an extension of the run game against the worst run defense, so it was a smart plan. Mahomes’ success rate was 30/49 (61.2%), which is very high for a game. If they can ever figure out how to hang onto the ball better, they wouldn’t need overtime and late-game heroics to beat teams like this.

Titans at Chargers: Herbert Gets Help

Justin Herbert is back to .500 (23-23) in his career after getting more help than usual in a 17-14 win over the Titans. Sure, he still had to throw for over 300 yards, including an absolute dime for 35 yards to Mike Williams on the game-winning drive, but he got some decent contributions from his running game and defense in this one.

Herbert was able to win his first game when throwing multiple interceptions. He was previously 0-6 when that happened. Hell, before Sunday, Herbert was 6-20 when throwing an interception.

The Titans had a team record four straight games without a takeaway before playing some volleyball in the end zone before halftime to end that streak with a Herbert pick. Incredible play. It was that kind of stuff that kept this a 7-7 game for so long. It didn’t help that Ryan Tannehill and Austin Ekeler were knocked out early, but both returned to finish the game. Ekeler showed his strength on a touchdown run and finished with 12 carries for 58 yards. That may not sound like much, but when you can get Herbert 22 carries for 82 yards from the running back position, that’s better than a lot of Chargers games.

After Ekeler’s touchdown gave the Chargers a 14-7 lead in the fourth quarter, both offenses struggled. Eventually, the Titans got the ball back with 2:57 left. Derrick Henry was able to get over 100 yards rushing, and the Titans needed it with Tannehill looking limited on his ankle injury. The drive was starting to flounder before back-to-back throws by Tannehill picked up 45 yards. The Chargers were wise to use timeouts after each red-zone snap, because Mike Vrabel is definitely a coach who will wind the clock down and go for two to win after the touchdown.

Tannehill snuck in the touchdown himself with 48 seconds left. The extra point was the right decision. Overtime and a possible tie would still be advantageous to the Titans in their division race with Jacksonville.

But even without a timeout and 44 seconds left at his own 23, Herbert is good enough to get the job done. He picked up 22 yards in 12 seconds with receivers getting out of bounds, hit the great throw to Williams for 35, then got the spike down. A delay of game penalty wasn’t great, but it wouldn’t be a Chargers game without some drama.

Dicker the Kicker was true from 43 yards with 4 seconds left. The Titans were stopped on the kick return to end the game at 17-4. Tennessee (7-7) has lost four in a row while the Chargers (8-6) are up to the No. 6 seed thanks to the head-to-head win over Miami last week and the losses by the Patriots and Jets.

We are getting closer to Herbert in the postseason after he’s led five game-winning drives in consecutive seasons. Herbert’s 13 game-winning drives are tied with Matt Ryan for the third most in a quarterback’s first three seasons. Only Russell Wilson (15) and Dak Prescott (15) had more.

Lions at Jets: Greg Not Enough Leg Helps Detroit Continue Playoff Push

Bit of an unexpected passing duel outdoors in December between Jared Goff (252 yards) and Zach Wilson (317 yards on 18 completions) with only one turnover in the game.

But most of the game was about defense. You figure the Lions would be at a disadvantage with the No. 31 defense in points and No. 32 in yards while the Jets have been one of the best, but it took one play to swing things. After the Jets took a 17-13 lead, the Lions faced a fourth-and-1 at midfield at the two-minute warning. The Lions rolled the dice with a pass, and backup tight end Brock Wright leaked out uncovered and caught an easy one that he was able to turn into a 51-yard touchdown. It was Detroit’s only 20-yard offensive play in the game.

Only needing a field goal, Wilson took some annoying sacks, but he also did a good job with some miraculous throws and catches by rookie Garrett Wilson. An even greater fourth-and-18 conversion went for 20 yards to Elijah Moore, and the Jets were able to use their final timeout with a second left after that play.

Overtime or a Detroit win would come down to the leg of Greg Zuerlein on a 58-yard field goal. The kick wasn’t even close, and the Lions escaped with the 20-17 win. Both teams are .500 now with 7-7 records. Huge win for Detroit with a more than doable remaining schedule of Panthers, Bears, and Packers.

Ravens at Browns: Not Baltimore’s Day

Hard to believe this was the only game in Week 15 where one team led by 10+ points for the entire 15 minutes of the fourth quarter. It was a lousy kicking day with both kickers missing twice, though Justin Tucker being one of those kickers is the shocking part. He had a 50-yard field goal blocked in the first minute of the fourth quarter to keep it a 13-3 game.

Beyond the uncharacteristic, awful kicking day, the Ravens just didn’t seem to recognize the situation. Cleveland’s offense sucks with Deshaun Watson, who has managed two touchdown drives in three games, and you were playing this game without Lamar Jackson again. Take easy points when they come, so that means not going for it on fourth-and-1 at the Cleveland 7 on your long opening drive by giving the ball to the fullback Patrick Ricard, who was stuffed.

There went three points. Tucker missed a 48-yard field goal before halftime despite making from 53 earlier, so that’s six points. To start the third quarter, Huntley forced an awful pass on third down in the red zone that would have been short of the sticks even if it was caught, and that was intercepted. There’s nine points. The Tucker blocked field goal could have been 12. DeMarcus Robinson also lost a fumble near midfield on a completion in the third quarter.

Just a poor game all around by the passing game and kicking unit. Defense and run game (nearly 200 yards again) were just fine.

It’s the first of Huntley’s eight major appearances that wasn’t decided by 1-to-3 points. The Ravens (9-5) are now in second place in the AFC North and things may very well stay that way the rest of the season.

Falcons at Saints: Bad Start to the Ridder Era

Atlanta rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder made his first start, getting a quick taste of the Saints rivalry. It did not go well. Ridder finished 13-of-26 for 97 yards, took four sacks, and ran six times for 38 yards. The Falcons gave him nearly 200 yards of rushing support to help keep the game close, but he definitely showed some inaccuracy and a lack of experience as you would expect from a third-round rookie in his first start.

Ridder joins a weird list of five other quarterbacks to throw for fewer than 100 yards on more than 25 pass attempts in their first NFL start since 1950:

  • Don Meredith (1960 Cowboys; turned out to be a good player for Dallas)
  • Will Cureton (1975 Browns; only game in his career)
  • Heath Shuler (1994 Redskins; first-round bust for Washington)
  • Jonathan Quinn (1998 Jaguars; forgettable career backup who was a third-round pick in 1998)
  • Doug Pederson (1999 Eagles; much better career as head coach)

We’ll see where Ridder ends up. Rookie wide receiver Drake London had 70 of Ridder’s 97 passing yards, but he also had the big blunder of the game that prevented Ridder from becoming a legend in his first start against the hated Saints. Down 21-18, Ridder looked to convert a fourth-and-5 to London at midfield, but he was stripped of the ball and the Saints recovered with 2:06 left.

The Saints kind of botched the clock situation from there, so Ridder got the ball back with 9 seconds left. After a short completion, he took off for an 18-yard run and dipped out of bounds even though the clock had already expired.

Take note, New England. That’s the moment where you are supposed to throw a lateral back into the field of play.

Ridder will learn. Maybe.


Steelers at Panthers: Pittsburgh Sweeps NFC South

I should have known better with that shit division. The Steelers completed their 4-0 sweep of the NFC South with a 24-16 win in Carolina that wasn’t even that close. The Steelers converted 12-of-16 third downs, used the first 11:43 of the third quarter to go on a 21-play, 91-yard touchdown drive, and completely shut down Carolina’s running game (16 carries for 21 yards).

Earlier this week, I researched what happens the next game after Mike Tomlin’s run defense gives up 180 yards like it did last week against Baltimore, and they still usually allow an average of 107 yards the next game. There’s rarely a huge improvement. But this was a complete shutdown of D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard.

The Steelers would be right in that 8-6 or 9-5 wild card mix if they played this complete of a game a few more times this year against those weaker opponents like the Jets, Patriots, Browns, and even the Dolphins.

Surprisingly, the AFC is only 34-34 vs. NFC this season. However, the NFC South is 3-15 against AFC teams. Of course.

Cardinals at Broncos: Playing Out the String

Week 15 is a little early for a game to be irrelevant, but this matchup had it in spades with the 4-9 Cardinals against the 3-10 Broncos with backup quarterbacks for both sides. Even Colt McCoy didn’t finish the game for the Cardinals due to a concussion. Backup Trace McSorley had to replace him, and McSorley was intercepted in the fourth quarter while trailing 17-9, giving safety Justin Simmons a pick off each Arizona quarterback.

That led to a 5-yard touchdown drive, which all but put the game away at 24-9 in case you were wondering how Denver managed 24 points. Keep in mind the Cardinals entered the week allowing the most points in the league this season, so giving up 24 to Brett Rypien and the Broncos is on brand.

Both teams are 4-10 now and their recaps will only get shorter from here on out. Happy holidays.

Next Week

  • Jags-Jets is the NFL’s classic “if you want to get some late Christmas shopping done Thursday night, go for it” matchup. But this year it’s better than usual with both teams in the playoff hunt and must-win mode.
  • Saturday’s early slate is a bit meh when NYG-MIN is the highlight, but we’ll see how the Vikings follow that 33-point comeback.
  • The Game of the Year in the NFC is probably going to be a 49ers-Eagles NFC Championship Game that we deserve, but I guess Eagles at Cowboys in the 4:25 slot will have to suffice for the regular season. Dallas’ loss in Jacksonville takes some more luster off this one.
  • Watching Derek Carr against the Steelers or a Christmas movie at night? Tough call.
  • Boy, the NFL got hosed on Christmas day. Hard to blame them for thinking GB-MIA, DEN-LAR, and TB-ARI would be hits, but they ended up scheduling five of the most disappointing teams in the league this year.
  • Chargers-Colts should be up for some shenanigans on Monday night.

NFL Week 14 Predictions: Division Clarity Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Replace the 2022 NFL script writers if SNF is Tua Tagovailoa leading a 16-3 comeback against the Chargers. We’ve seen it twice in a row now, but at least Baker Mayfield actually made some impressive throws to pull it off against the Raiders on Thursday night.

But the Week 14 schedule is a big one for division games where we find out if that recent meeting was telling the truth or not.

  • Jalen Hurts had the worst game of his career on the road against the Giants last year. Could it happen again?
  • Tyler Huntley always keeps it close for Baltimore, but his worst performance was in a 16-13 overtime loss against the Steelers to end 2021. Does Baltimore fall without Lamar again?
  • Remember when Russell Wilson was going to end Kansas City’s 13-game win streak over Denver? At least the Denver under is the best bet in football (11-1 this year).
  • Minnesota lost on the last play of the game to the Lions last year. Can Detroit do it again and end Minnesota’s winning streak in close games?
  • Can Mike White avoid throwing a pick parade against Buffalo for the second year in a row, or does Saleh’s defense have something on Josh Allen this year to complete an improbable sweep?
  • The Jaguars and Titans are also playing. Yep.

The one I took a great interest in was Browns-Bengals as Joe Burrow is somehow 0-4 against the Browns and 3-0 against the Chiefs. But I dug into that for some articles below and found some striking passing numbers from Baker Mayfield and Jacoby Brissett in those games that really provide the secret sauce for why Cleveland hasn’t lost to Burrow. By introducing a new character (Predator) into the fold, I’m not sure Stefanski can follow the same script right now. Maybe he can in 2023, but I like Burrow to get over the hump and get that first Cleveland win.

Some of this week’s articles:

NFL Week 14 Predictions

The Raiders cannot bring Josh McDaniels back next season. I said that after he lost to Jeff Saturday, which was on top of blowing three 17+ point leads. Now he blows a 16-3 lead to a skeleton crew roster around Baker Mayfield, who spent two days on the team? Completely inexcusable loss.

I love Lions by 1-13 points. End that streak for Minnesota. It’s past time. The fact that a 5-7 team is favored against a 10-2 team says a lot. However, I’d definitely hedge this leg in a parlay. Can’t trust the Lions too much. We have decades of proof of that.

I think Mike White and Garrett Wilson put up numbers again this week for the Jets.

Love another close finish between the Steelers and Ravens. Also expect George Pickens to get more passes this week. Tyler Huntley has played in 6 games decided by 11 points, and he’s rushed for 40+ yards in all six of those appearances. Something to keep in mind for SGP.

I think Giants keep it close enough with the Eagles again to cover.

Dallas should blow out the Texans but we’ll see.

Would say a lot about the KC defense if Russell Wilson chooses this week to light it up. But I’ve been playing an alternate line on that under (43.5) to account for a 30-16 type of final. It was 22-9 the first time these teams met last year.

Seattle’s RB injuries + run defense situation has me worried that’s a trap game with 49ers coming up on short week. D’Onta Foreman over and TD might be good for props.

Was digging for the upset pick the other day and landed on Tampa Bay if Brady bullshit is going to be back in business. No Garoppolo and Nick Bosa is banged up. Of course. Brock Purdy interception is a prop I like a lot here. He’s already thrown one in each of his two appearances off the bench.

I like the under probably more than most people for SNF.

Like the Patriots to open up the passing game on MNF after Mac Jones basically wanted to shit all over Matt Patricia on the sideline. No Jakobi Meyers might make it tougher, but random long catch by Nelson Agholor and maybe a Hunter Henry TD that counts this time.