Kurt Warner: The Hall of Fame Case (From the 2014 Archives)

June 9, 2026 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Inspired by my recent Hall of Fame case for Russell Wilson and this tweet about the HOF from Kurt Warner, I thought I’d upload my old Kurt Warner HOF case that was published in 2014 on a site that no longer exists because it had poor management and couldn’t pay its writers.

So this is my work, and I’m just going to post it as it was. Warner was inducted in 2017 after waiting a couple of years, but I was always in support of him getting in.

The Kurt Warner Hall of Fame Case

In 1998, a legendary quarterback started his NFL career. He soon took control of one of the league’s worst teams and turned them into an offensive juggernaut. It wasn’t long before this deadly accurate quarterback earned MVP awards, set passing records and won a championship.

That was supposed to be the story of Peyton Manning, the No. 1 pick in the 1998 draft. That was actually the story of Kurt Warner, the greatest undrafted success in NFL history.

Warner will be eligible for the Pro Football Hall of Fame next year (voting process will start soon). With Hall of Fame week upon us, we start the early conversation about probably the most polarizing first-ballot candidate (the rest of the candidates will be featured on Friday).

No quarterback has been inducted into Canton since Troy Aikman and Warren Moon went on their first ballot in 2006. Since then, no quarterback has even sparked an argument except for those of us wishing Ken Anderson, now restricted to a senior selection, finally earn his due respect. With the way Donovan McNabb’s career ended, we can forget about him gaining any traction. Warner’s the only interesting quarterback case we have before the inevitable first-ballot selections of Brett Favre (2016), Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

Is Kurt Warner a Hall of Fame quarterback? The burden of proof is on the prosecution, and we are going to give this one proper treatment. I’ll do my best Ed Norton (Primal Fear) impersonation, representing both sides of the case. However, I’m not sugarcoating anything. I think Warner belongs in the Hall of Fame, but I have a good grasp on how the other side feels. Since I’m more likely to slip into Norman Bates territory with the split personality dynamic, we’re going to keep things simple. We’ll start with the evidence for why Warner should be inducted into the Hall of Fame, followed by the evidence to keep him out. In closing, I will refute the arguments against Warner and make a closing statement.

Evidence for Induction

There are 23 modern-era quarterbacks in the Hall of Fame (HOF). Kurt Warner doesn’t have to be better than all of them to join, nor does he have to be better than peers such as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Debating his place amongst the all-time quarterbacks is a different topic. All we care about here is if his career was worthy of the HOF, and a look at the body of work clearly confirms he was.

Pick any of the usual arguments people use for the HOF, and Warner passes each one except for longevity. Oh, he played 12 seasons (1998-2009) after getting a late start at 27, but about half of them were largely forgettable. No one’s going to deny that, but when he was on few quarterbacks ever reached the level of play Warner did.

Was he ever the best player at his position?

Two MVP awards and two first-team All-Pro selections in a three-year period (1999-2001) tell us he was in St. Louis. It’s almost impossible to earn those accolades without playing at an insanely high level.

Warner is one of 15 quarterbacks since 1950 to have multiple first-team All-Pros. Nine are in the HOF, the trio of Favre/Manning/Brady will make it 12, and that just leaves Warner with Rich Gannon and Earl Morrall. Gannon was basically a four-year sensation with the Raiders (1999-2002), but his peak was never as dominant as Warner’s and he had a lot of incomplete seasons in his career. Morrall has earned the reputation as the best backup quarterback ever, but his most notable success came on loaded teams coached by Don Shula like the 1968 Colts and 1972 Dolphins.

The two MVP awards really set Warner apart. He’s one of only eight players in NFL history to win multiple MVP awards. The first four were first-ballot HOFers and the same will happen for Favre, Manning and Brady. Honestly, when does a two-time MVP not get into his sport’s HOF? I looked at the NFL, NBA and NHL.

Note: Additionally, HOF receiver Don Hutson twice won the Joe F. Carr Trophy, which served as the NFL’s MVP award for 1938-46.

It’s obvious that LeBron James and Tim Duncan are locks for basketball’s HOF. Steve Nash might be the closest comparison to Warner, and Nash is one of the greatest players to never reach the NBA Finals. Still, his numbers in assists, three-point field goals and free throws are all among the best ever and he likely gets in quickly. Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin are absurdly productive and probably in lock territory as well. I’m not that familiar with a lot of the old hockey players — the Hart Memorial Trophy has been handed out since 1924 compared to the MVP award in NFL/NBA starting in the late 1950’s — but they’re all in the HOF. All 13 players listed in the NFL/NBA who are already in the HOF were all first-ballot choices.

Out of 38 players to win multiple MVP awards, 29 are in the HOF, five-to-seven are locks and that just leaves Nash and Warner to be determined. In other words, no multiple-MVP winner in the NFL/NBA/NHL has ever been kept out of the HOF. Are we really going to ostracize Warner? This isn’t baseball, which I did study, though didn’t include above since it’s different. A MVP is given out in each league and steroids/cheating have had a big impact on voting politics. For those curious, 30 MLB players have won multiple league MVP awards, and 23 are in the HOF. Albert Pujols should be a lock. Miguel Cabrera (active) has a good case, and so did Alex Rodriguez before cheating scandals. That means only four athletes in major North American professional sports have been denied HOF induction despite multiple MVP awards: Barry Bonds, Juan Gonzalez, Roger Maris and Dale Murphy.

When a player is great enough to win multiple MVP awards, you expect a lot of strong seasons in his career. Warner can’t give us a number higher than six (1999-2001 and 2007-09), but some of his best years are worth multiple “good” seasons from lesser players.

Was he a “winner” and did he play well in “big” games?

We know it’s not fair, but quarterbacks are judged by wins and championships more than any other position in the game. Warner is the last player to win a MVP and a Super Bowl in the same season (1999). He was a Super Bowl MVP with a record 414 passing yards. In fact, Warner still has the three-highest games in passing yardage in Super Bowl history: 414 vs. Tennessee, 377 vs. Pittsburgh and 365 vs. New England.

In the three seasons he started all 16 regular-season games, Warner led his team to the Super Bowl. He got there with three different head coaches (Dick Vermeil, Mike Martz and Ken Whisenhunt) and two teams, which has only been matched by Peyton Manning. Warner is one of 12 quarterbacks to start at least three Super Bowls. Eight are in the HOF, Manning and Brady are locks, Ben Roethlisberger is on the path, and Warner would make it 12-for-12.

Warner did not make the postseason often, but he made his runs count. Warner is statistically one of the best postseason quarterbacks ever. In 13 games he threw 31 touchdowns to 14 interceptions with a 102.8 passer rating. He has the highest completion percentage (66.5 percent) and passing yards per attempt (8.55) in postseason history. He has the third-most passing DYAR (1,639) since 1989, including the single-highest game (380 DYAR vs. 2009 Packers). Against Green Bay, Warner became the only quarterback to ever win a playoff game in which his team allowed 45 points. He threw more touchdowns (five) than incompletions (four) in his final virtuoso performance.

Warner’s passing DVOA in the playoffs (42.3%) is the second highest since 1989, trailing only Joe Montana’s late-career hot streak:

An argument could be made that Warner has been the best playoff quarterback of his era. His record is 9-4, but he led a valiant comeback effort in three of the defeats. The only game that wasn’t competitive was the swansong of his career: a 45-14 loss he left injured in New Orleans in the 2009 NFC Divisional. Warner’s 0.28 win probability added per game is the third highest in the playoffs since 1999.

In the regular season, Warner was 67-49 (.578) as a starter. That gives him a better winning percentage than the likes of HOFers who he probably fits best with on a tier: Joe Namath (.496), Fran Tarkenton (.531), Sonny Jurgensen (.487), Dan Fouts (.506) and Warren Moon (.502). Five times Warner left a start early with no more than 13 pass attempts. His teams went 0-5 those days. He also left the 1999 regular-season finale (for playoff “rest”) after tying the game at 24 in the third quarter. The Rams turned the ball over on their next five drives without Warner and lost 38-31. He also led his team to a 3-1 record in four significant outings off the bench.

Warner would have won more games if he played with better defenses. He had a great one when he won the Super Bowl with the 1999 Rams, but Warner also dragged with him two of the worst defenses to ever see the postseason in 2000 and 2008.

Only six teams have made the playoffs after allowing 400 points, and Warner was the primary quarterback for two of them. He was the first to win a playoff game with one of these defenses, and has the only 10-win season on the list (2000 Rams). Technically, Trent Green started five games (2-3 record) that year with Warner injured, but the Rams actually allowed more points — 30.2 points per game is a pace of just under 483 points — in Warner’s 11 starts. Warner still went 8-3 as a starter.

Did he pass the eye test?

Numbers can mislead at times, but anyone who watched Warner saw a very accurate quarterback. Even in his down years Warner was still a high completion percentage guy, and he currently ranks fourth in that stat (65.5 percent). He did not have a cannon, but his timing and accuracy on intermediate throws (15-25 yards) was as good as any of his peers. The dig route was probably his trademark throw, and it’s that type of high-risk, high-reward pass that made the Rams the Greatest Show on Turf. Warner didn’t have the greatest pocket presence, he wasn’t mobile, he wasn’t known for the two-minute drill, but he could stand and deliver from the pocket with only five blockers with the best of them.

Was he prolific?

Warner’s penchant for big passing numbers was evident early. He threw 14 touchdown passes in his first four starts, which is still a record. When he threw 41 touchdowns in 1999, he and Dan Marino were the only quarterbacks to hit 40. It’s since been done by five more players. Warner was the fastest passer to 5,000 yards (19 games), 10,000 yards (36 games) and tied Marino as the fastest to 30,000 yards (114 games).

Warner averaged 9.88 yards per attempt in 2000 — the highest season in the Super Bowl era (since 1966). Through 43 starts in 1999-2001, Warner completed 67.2 percent of his passes, averaged 9.1 yards per attempt, had a 103.4 passer rating and was 35-8 (.814) as a starter. It was always going to be difficult to sustain that absurd start.

The efficiency dropped, but some of the volume continued. Warner played in 124 games, but he threw for at least 300 yards in 52 of them. That’s the sixth-most 300-yard passing games in NFL history, and tied with Drew Brees for the highest rate (41.9 percent) for anyone with at least 100 games played.

If we look at Warner’s stats in his 124-game career compared to where some other notable quarterbacks were at in their first 124 games, he comes out very favorably with the third-most yards and the highest completion percentage.

Can you tell the story of the NFL without him?

Remembering this is the Hall of Fame, this is a classic argument that Warner has in spades. Warner defined a transitional era in NFL history when the stalwarts of the position moved on to retirement, and new quarterbacks emerged from unusual origins. None were more impressive than Warner’s journey from stocking groceries to Super Bowl MVP. When the game said goodbye to John Elway, Steve Young, Dan Marino, Warren Moon and Troy Aikman, it was Warner taking over the mantle (for a limited time) as the best quarterback. Brett Favre’s MVP reign was over and Peyton Manning’s had yet to begin. Other quarterbacks rose to unexpected success like Gannon, Brad Johnson, Jake Delhomme and Tom Brady, but Warner was the most dominant of that era. The 2004 season was when teams went back to mostly finding quarterbacks in the first round, but for an odd period (1999-2003) where defense dominated and unheralded quarterbacks won championships, Warner was the best of the bunch.

If his career ended after St. Louis, Warner would be the Terrell Davis of quarterbacks. However, his late resurgence in Arizona completes his story and should solidify his reputation as a HOF player. Without Warner, there wouldn’t be much to say about the Rams and Cardinals; certainly not in the television era. The following table shows the longest streaks in the Super Bowl era of teams missing the playoffs and not having a winning record.

The Rams (1990-98) and Cardinals (1999-2007) were a season away from a decade of ineptitude before Warner led them all the way to the Super Bowl. Where are those teams since Warner left? The Rams are on the list again for 2005-2013, and the Cardinals have averaged a rank of 27.8 in offensive DVOA since 2010. Warner made those teams relevant when it was least expected. That’s the stuff of legends. That’s what a Hall of Famer does.

Evidence Against Induction

Think of a pie with a delicious top layer and a fresh crust underneath. Now imagine the filling as the most rancid thing you ever tasted. Would you still praise that pie or would you send it back? That pie is Kurt Warner’s career. It starts off great, but once you get to the middle, everything goes sour. For some people, it’s not worth digging through to get to the good stuff at the bottom.

A lot of HOF players have bad seasons. That’s undeniable. However, how many have a five-year gulf on their resume like the massive one Warner had in 2002-06? We say Warner pulled the Rams and Cardinals out of the abyss, but he fell into his own in between.

In those five years, Warner was 8-23 (.258) as a starter. He threw more interceptions (30) than touchdowns (27), which is hard to do in today’s game. After losing Super Bowl XXXVI as a heavy favorite to the Patriots, he never won another start for the Rams (0-7) and led the team to more than 17 points just once. Warner was replaced by Marc Bulger, who vastly outplayed Warner in 2002 and led the Rams to the playoffs in 2003-04.

When Warner went to the Giants and no longer had the services of a stud left tackle like Orlando Pace, he was shell-shocked, taking a sack on 12.5 percent of his dropbacks. Without a dominant cast of receivers, Warner’s numbers were pedestrian, never passing for more than 286 yards or one touchdown in any game with New York. His early-season success was mostly about the defense, which never allowed more than 14 points in any of his five wins. After falling to 5-4, the Giants replaced Warner with rookie Eli Manning.

In Arizona, Warner was kept on the bench for Josh McCown. The Cardinals drafted Matt Leinart in 2006 and quickly put him behind center after Warner failed to impress during a three-game losing streak. If Leinart ever figured things out, Warner would have ended his career as an afterthought.

But that didn’t happen and we must acknowledge what did. Whether it was his pair of three-year successes or the five-year pitfall, there were flaws in Warner’s game throughout his whole career.

The Fumbler

Warner had fumbilitis. His rate of fumbles per dropback was 2.27 percent — ranked 164 out of 174 quarterbacks in NFL history (minimum 1,500 attempts). Some of those mistakes were crippling to his teams. In 2002 against Washington, Warner fumbled on a sack with the ball at the 6-yard line in the final seconds with his team down 20-17. Warner fumbled six times in the 2003 opener, which became his final start with the Rams. Against the Rams in 2006, Warner had a first down in the red zone in the final two minutes, down 16-14. Arizona could have taken three knees and won with a field goal, but Warner fumbled the snap on first down to lose the game. In 2007, Warner took a sack in the end zone in overtime, losing to the 49ers on a game-ending fumble recovered for a touchdown.

Then in Super Bowl XLIII, some may forget the Cardinals were at the Pittsburgh 44 with 15 seconds to play. Larry Fitzgerald was playing like a man possessed, and any jump ball in the end zone could have been a game-winning score. Warner didn’t even get the pass off, getting strip-sacked to deny us the Hail Mary finish.

Warner was a little below average with interceptions, because he played in a vertical offense. The fumbles are inexcusable, and they’re a big reason he ranks 97th in quarterback turnover rate (5.1 percent). Warner would have the worst turnover rate for any quarterback in the HOF who started his career since 1974. With the direction the game is headed, he’s likely the last quarterback with a turnover rate over 5.0 percent who will even be considered for Canton. The only other recent players to hit that mark are David Carr (5.0 percent), Kyle Boller (5.3 percent), Mark Sanchez (5.3 percent) and Rex Grossman (5.3 percent). Enough said.

The postseason turnovers

It’s an amazing feat that Warner has the top three games in passing yardage in Super Bowl history, but why don’t we ever hear that he never scored more than 23 points in any of those games? Why don’t we connect the dots that he threw for so many yards because he threw two of the most deadly pick-sixes in Super Bowl history? There’s a reason his record is 1-2 in those games. He gave the Patriots the lead on the Ty Law pick-six, and the James Harrison play was a 14-point swing before halftime. That one was especially a poor decision. Even in his “valiant comeback effort” against the 2000 Saints in a Wild Card game, Warner needed a 24-point comeback because he turned the ball over four times. Meanwhile, Warner’s defense supplied him with 30 takeaways in his nine playoff wins.

Warner might not have ever won a Super Bowl if his defense didn’t bail him out in the 1999 NFC Championship Game against Tampa Bay. Great defense was beating great offense again as Warner threw three interceptions. There’s a long history of juggernaut offenses crashing and burning in the playoffs (see 2013 Broncos as latest example). The 1999 Rams were on track to be another, but the difference was they had a defense (and the opponent had Shaun King at quarterback). Warner got the 11-6 win and his first fourth-quarter comeback, which proved to be the most important of his career.

The Front-runner

With the high-powered offenses Warner ran in his best years, you probably think there was no deficit too big for him to overcome, right? Wrong. Warner was at his best on teams who jumped out to big leads and stayed in front. Comebacks were hard to come by, especially from bigger deficits. In other words, Warner was a great front-runner.

In his career, Warner was 2-44 (.043) when trailing by at least 10 points at any time in the game. The league average is around 15 percent. In two years, Andrew Luck is already 7-9 (.438) when trailing by at least 12 points (Warner is 1-37). Maybe Luck’s the outlier, but Warner looks like an outlier on the opposite end. Teams win about 10 percent of games when trailing by 12-plus points. Peyton Manning’s already done it four times in Denver, and he’s been there two years. In a three-week span last season, Brady led New England to comebacks of 24, 10 and 16 points.

Warner was 9-30 (.231) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities, which are only for deficits of 1-8 points. That’s below average too, but the interesting part is Warner’s nine wins had an average deficit of just 2.2 points — the smallest average deficit for any quarterback with at least nine fourth-quarter comeback wins in NFL history.

On the road, Warner had just two fourth-quarter comeback wins. They came against the 2005 49ers (4-12; 30th-ranked scoring defense) and 2005 Rams (6-10; 31st-ranked scoring defense). How big were those deficits? One point each.

Warner was 0-42 when trailing by at least six points in the fourth quarter, including 0-23 when he had possession in a one-score game. That’s just unfathomable for someone who quarterbacked four different 400-point teams.

Where does he get those wonderful toys?

When Warner was lighting up the scoreboard, he played with an arsenal of weapons few quarterbacks ever get to experience. Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are all 10,000-yard wide receivers who will receive HOF consideration. HOF running back Marshall Faulk was the most dynamic offensive player in the league in 1999-2001, and he’s one of the best receiving backs ever. Faulk, not Warner, was the player Bill Belichick sought to shut down in Super Bowl XXXVI.

Warner threw 50.5 percent of his career regular-season passes to those five players. He also played with talented receivers such as Amani Toomer, Jeremy Shockey, Ike Hilliard, Steve Breaston, Ricky Proehl and Az-Zahir Hakim. Orlando Pace, Warner’s left tackle in St. Louis, is also eligible for Canton this year and probably has the best case of these GSOT Rams. Warner had just about everything on offense except for a good tight end.

We know how Bulger outperformed Warner in 2002-03, but that wasn’t the only time. When a capable quarterback like Trent Green stepped in for Warner in 2000, he actually had a higher passer rating (101.8) and DVOA (28.6%) than Warner. If not for Rodney Harrison injuring Green in the 1999 preseason, we might be talking about Green’s HOF case today.

Beyond the weapons, there were other factors contributing to Warner’s great statistics. He played in a dome with the Rams and there was no such thing as bad weather in Arizona with that retractable stadium. Warner played in one game with precipitation in his career. He lost 47-7 in New England in 2008, completing 6-of-18 passes for 30 yards.

Warner also played most of his career in the NFC West when it was the laughingstock of the league. Soft schedules boosted his early start. The 1999 Rams are the only team since 1970 to play just one team with a winning record in the regular season. They lost. Warner went 36-13 in games against the NFC West in his career. He was 1-7 against the NFC South (10 touchdowns, 14 interceptions) and 7-13 against the NFC East (24 touchdowns, 23 interceptions). This is why Warner’s VOA (not adjusted for opponent) is higher than his DVOA for nine of his 12 seasons. He played some weak schedules of defenses.

All-star casts needed for relevancy, weak schedules to inflate the numbers, a “win big lose close” reputation, and five years of nothingness. Is it really a HOF career if we’re asked to forget half of it?

Well Allow Me to Retort

The other side of my mind makes a convincing argument for why Warner’s not a top 15 all-time quarterback. However, that does not mean he’s not a HOF quarterback, because anyone would be hard-pressed not to have him in the top 25. It’s hard to find sustained greatness at quarterback, which is why the main argument against Warner isn’t a strong one.

Circa 2002-06

Yes, the five-year abyss is a little too long and the six years of great play should be bigger. However, something simple as health can explain some of those problems that started in St. Louis. Warner broke his finger and his throwing hand in 2002. That will make gripping the ball difficult for any player, so that explains some of the fumbling and general issues in those final starts with the Rams. After he moved on, there was obvious pressure to start top 10 picks like Eli and Leinart back when those guys were paid handsomely before playing a down. Warner was on a short leash. Ken Whisenhunt, who did not draft Leinart in Arizona, realized quickly in 2007 that Warner was the right man for the job, and the slump was over.

Were those five years really as bad as they appear? The record was bad, but so were the teams. Warner didn’t have a running game or defense in Arizona. The sacks were too high, but Warner worked best in systems that utilized rhythm passing with three-to-four receiver sets. Once he got back to that, he had the three lowest sack percentages of his career in 2007-09 despite no stellar offensive linemen around him. In 2005, Warner actually ranked a respectable 15th in DVOA. With the Giants, he led the league in lowest interception percentage in 2004.

For all the bad memories we may have of 2002-06 Warner, in that time he completed 63.9 percent of his passes, averaged 7.2 yards per attempt and had a 2.7 interception percentage. Those are all above-average numbers. Some people actually think Eli Manning has been an elite quarterback and he never consistently puts up those numbers. Warner’s biggest problem back then was that he just didn’t throw many touchdowns. He moved the ball well, but it’s hard to explain why the scoring was down. At least it picked back up for him.

It’s true Warner did not have nearly as many good years as Favre, Marino, Joe Montana, Fran Tarkenton or even the efficient version of John Elway. It’s also true no one is going to say he’s a better quarterback than those guys, but he still played at their level (or better) often enough to belong in the HOF.

How many years do we need to see greatness? Troy Aikman played 12 years and he was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in three of them (1989-90 and 2000). Warren Moon played until he was 44, but he would have more efficient stats and a better record if we chopped off his first three seasons and his last two. Did those five years of going 12-34 with 41 touchdowns and 60 interceptions make him more HOF viable? We’re better off looking at his CFL days.

Terry Bradshaw threw 48 touchdowns and 81 interceptions in his first five seasons. I like to think Warner’s 1999 season was worth as much as those five Bradshaw years combined. Joe Namath had six throwaway seasons, and his other seven weren’t nearly as good as Warner’s top six. He’s also famous for one Super Bowl while Warner played prolifically in three of the most exciting ever.

We’ve seen enough of Warner to know he wasn’t a one-year wonder. He wasn’t a product of one system or dependent on one coach. He’s come closer than any quarterback in NFL history, including Peyton Manning last year, to winning Super Bowls with two different teams (a decade apart too), which would be the ultimate vindication of an all-time great.

Some people might be satisfied with totals padded by seasons of 18 touchdowns and 7-9 records, but Warner gave us huge seasons only a select few quarterbacks are capable of having. Someone like Ryan Tannehill could look like Dan Marino on any given Sunday, but can he keep it up for a full season? How about three in a row? Six years total? Warner did that.

There’s a small list of the greatest quarterbacks ever, who were able to sustain success for over a decade. Then there’s a list of the next tier with players who were capable of a few elite seasons. That list includes HOFers. That list undoubtedly includes Warner.

The weapons and other surroundings

Warner played with some great supporting casts, but part of their greatness was fueled by Warner. Marc Bulger never threw more than 24 touchdowns in his career with those weapons. Fitzgerald has been wasting away in the desert, waiting for another opportunity at the postseason.

Here’s a look at what those four primary wide receivers have done (regular season only) with Warner and with all other passers in their careers:

As all four would agree, an accurate quarterback makes a huge difference. Warner also completed 67.2 percent of his passes to Steve Breaston, who he got a 1,000-yard season out of in 2008. He completed 68.8 percent to Hakim and 70.9 percent to Proehl in St. Louis. Warner did what the greats do and that’s make the players around them better.

As for things like schedules and playing indoors, those are fine topics for another day, but it’s hard to imagine anyone would factor them into a HOF decision. They didn’t keep Moon out on his first ballot even though he played most of his home games in the Astrodome (Houston), Metrodome (Minnesota) and Kingdome (Seattle).

The Super Bowls and lost comebacks

Warner could have been 0-3 in his Super Bowls just as easily as he could have been 3-0. He played in the three Super Bowls with the largest deficits erased (16, 14 and 13 points), and he erased the two largest fourth-quarter deficits, but still lost both games. Yes, the pick-sixes were killers, but he was clearly hit in the face by Mike Vrabel on the Ty Law play, yet there was no flag.

The lack of points in those three games is a concern, but Warner had to supply most of the offense with little-to-no help from the running game. Against the 2008 Steelers, Warner had to face the league’s best defense with the help of 11 carries for 33 yards. Against the 1999 Titans, Warner handed off 11 times for 28 yards. In fact, out of 48 Super Bowl runs, no quarterback has won a championship with less help from his running game in the postseason than Warner, who only received 45 carries for 108 yards in three games in 1999.

In the playoffs, teams rushing for under 40 yards are 2-53 (.036). Warner led the two wins in 1999. His 1,063 passing yards that postseason are still the record for a three-game postseason.

Warner had some red-zone issues against Tennessee, but the Rams also botched two easy field goals. At least he connected with Bruce on the 73-yard game-winning touchdown pass. That’s the thing with Warner. People will remember his clutch moments in the postseason. He only had 14 game-winning drives, but three of them were game-winning touchdown passes in championship games. His records listed above are horrific, but people will remember the almost comebacks he had in Super Bowls. He erased New England’s 17-3 lead, only to never see the ball again. He had the Cardinals — come on, the ARIZONA CARDINALS — one stop away from a 13-point comeback, only for Roethlisberger and Santonio Holmes to snatch it away with 35 seconds left.

You need a lot of bad luck to have records like 1-37 and 0-42. If Gus Frerotte didn’t convert a fourth-and-26 against the 1999 Rams, Warner would have had a nine-point comeback that day. He came off the bench against the 2007 Ravens and led a 17-point comeback to tie the game before never seeing the ball again. Overall, it’s not that Warner was bad in those moments, but his teams just weren’t successful.

Closing Statement

Whether or not we agree with them, the media has a major impact on shaping the narrative of a player’s career. We have been told that certain elements carry more weight than others. We’re supposed to value a player who has won a championship and plays well in big games. Media-voted awards like the MVP showcase the very best in the game. We’re also pushed to be saps for rags-to-riches stories where a person overcame adversity to fulfill their dream. And in this country, when people fall down, everyone loves a good comeback story.

Warner passes all of that, and then some. He’s one of the game’s “good guys,” clean of any arrests or nasty allegations. That matters too, even if voters are told not to consider off-field complications.

There are a lot of great careers with slack and fat tacked on to the beginning and end. Warner started late and walked away while he still could. Would he be a better candidate if he played another year or two to pad the totals? Maybe, or maybe he would have struggled as a 39-year-old quarterback and hurt his chances. We’re sure Favre would have chosen not to return in 2010 if he knew how bad that season would go. Then Favre would be eligible this year in the same class as Warner. We know who the voters would pick first there, but it’s not the duty of the HOF to try ranking players by who is the best at their position. They just have to figure out if a guy belongs in the ultimate elite group.

So what if he only gave us six seasons of relevance? So did The Sopranos. Enjoy excellence when you see it. Appreciate Kurt Warner more for what he was, and not what you thought he could be. If we can remember Gale Sayers that way on some mediocre Chicago teams, then we should remember that at his peak, Warner was one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game.

The Verdict

The verdict’s not up to me, but I hope anyone reading this who was sitting on the fence has picked a side now. In November we’ll see Warner’s name on the 25 semifinalists. In January, he’ll probably be one of the 15 finalists. On the weekend of the Super Bowl, his first-ballot fate will be decided.

I feel pretty good about Warner’s chances, but I also thought the prosecutor in the Casey Anthony trial nailed his case, and we know how that one turned out. You never know what will happen once the jury starts deliberating, but at least there will only be a few Florida residents in this process.

It would not come as a surprise to see Warner have to wait three or four years. Some will keep a hardline against his first-ballot induction. Some voters seem to have this weird thing about not putting in players from the same position in the same class, so how dare Lord Favre share the stage with any other quarterback in 2016, especially Warner, a former practice squad backup (1994) of his. Canton also has been unofficially the “NFL Hall of Fame,” so Warner’s induction into the Arena Football Hall of Fame or the fact that he led all quarterbacks in yards and touchdowns in NFL Europe (1998) won’t carry any weight.

Top 100 NFL Quarterbacks of the 21st Century: Part VI (20-11)

September 5, 2021 ~ Scott ~ 3 Comments

Including the playoffs, there are 100 NFL quarterbacks who have started at least 30 games in the last 20 seasons (2001-20). In part I, I began to rank these quarterbacks from No. 100 to No. 87, looking at the worst of the bunch. In part II, I looked at some more serviceable players who may have had one special season in their career. In part III, the players included more multi-year starters who still may have only had that one peak year as well as some younger players still developing. In part IV, I had an especially difficult time with slotting quarterbacks I have criticized for years, but who definitely had a peak year. In part V, we got into some MVP winners and a few quarterbacks I have struggled to root for over the years.

20. Matt Hasselbeck

After sleeping on it, I realized I messed up here, but it is too late for an edit. Matt Hasselbeck should be closer to where Trent Green (No. 28) is. When the Peyton Manning-Tom Brady rivalry really took off after 2003 and the two camps of stats vs. rings formed, Hasselbeck was on a short list of quarterbacks who had multiple playoff seasons and could compare favorably to Spygate-era Brady. He just didn’t have the defensive support, his receivers (Koren Robinson, Darrell Jackson) were known for dropping the ball, his star running back (Shaun Alexander) was also known as The Tiptoe Burglar, and he had that “we want the ball and we’re going to score” moment in the playoffs in Green Bay. He scored alright, throwing a pick-six in overtime.

But from 2002-07, Hasselbeck was a very good quarterback in Mike Holmgren’s West Coast Offense in Seattle. He was 52-32 as a starter, 133 TD, 76 INT, 7.2 YPA, and 88.0 passer rating. Seattle made the playoffs five years in a row, including Super Bowl XL. Hasselbeck threw a critical interception in that Super Bowl that not a lot of people seem to remember because of the bogus penalty that was tacked onto the end of it for a low block, but he still threw one in the fourth quarter at the Pittsburgh 27, down 14-10. One drive later the Seahawks were down 21-10 and that was the ballgame.

Hasselbeck’s last big season was in 2007. He started to regress in Seattle but did manage a playoff berth for that 7-9 team in 2010. He had arguably the best playoff game of his career when he threw four touchdowns against the Saints in one of the bigger upsets of this era. He also had a solid season for the Titans in 2011 that just missed out on the playoffs.

Russell Wilson has since arrived to be the best quarterback in Seahawks history, but Hasselbeck had a run to appreciate there in the 2000s. I just went a little too high in slotting him into the top 20.

19. Rich Gannon

Gannon is basically here on the strength of just two seasons in 2001-02. The timeframe here hurts him more than most since it cuts off half of his four-year Pro Bowl run with the Raiders at ages 34-37. Gannon had achieved very little in a long career prior to joining Jon Gruden in Oakland in 1999, but he ended up accumulating two first-team All-Pro seasons, an MVP award in 2002, and he got the Raiders back to the Super Bowl.

Gannon could run and he was a very effective dink-and-dunk quarterback who could move an offense without a running game. I still remember him shredding the Steelers in 2002 when he threw 64 passes and completed 43 of them for 403 yards in a game the Raiders led for more than 45 minutes. He led the NFL with 4,689 yards that year.

But Gannon suffered some real playoff heartbreak during his run too. He was injured in the 2000 AFC Championship Game against Baltimore, a 16-3 loss. He lost to the 2001 Patriots in the snowy Tuck Rule game after he never got the ball in overtime and after Adam Vinatieri bailed out the Patriots with the greatest kick ever, only made possible by that horrible rule being applied. Then when he got to the Super Bowl in 2002, he just so happened to face an all-time great pass defense (2002 Buccaneers) with his former head coach (Gruden) calling out his plays. Gannon had that “deer in the headlights” look after he threw five picks that night in a blowout loss.

After the Super Bowl, Gannon only started 10 more games before retirement. But the Raiders have not had a quarterback as good as him ever since then.

18. Daunte Culpepper

Get your roll on, Pep. Before he tore his ACL in 2005 and it ruined his career, Daunte Culpepper was one of the most exciting quarterbacks to watch. Was he as consistent as you’d like? Absolutely not. He followed up his breakout year in 2000 with a so-so season in 2001, then he fumbled 23 times and threw 23 picks in 2002. Yikes. But in 2003, he had another strong Pro Bowl year, and the Vikings missed the playoffs after the defense allowed Josh McCown to throw a game-winning touchdown pass on 4th-and-25 in Week 17.

I personally liked Culpepper more than the other mobile quarterbacks of that era because his size made his runs a little more impressive, and he was still a high completion rate passer (64.4% with Minnesota) who got the ball to his wide receivers down the field. Sure, having Randy Moss helps a ton for that, but Moss was injured or ineffective for a huge portion of that 2004 season when Culpepper was at his best with 39 touchdowns and a 110.9 passer rating. Had his defense not been so terrible and if Peyton Manning didn’t throw 49 touchdowns, that could have easily been an MVP year for Culpepper.

Culpepper’s 2005 season was also a teaching moment for me that the NFL preseason is bullshit and should not be taken seriously. That August, Culpepper looked MVP ready again without Moss as he completed 81.8% of his passes for 520 yards and 11.82 yards per attempt. Nothing was going to stop him in his prime. Flash forward to Week 2 in September and the Vikings were 0-2 while Culpepper had zero touchdowns with eight interceptions. Oof. Things were that bad before the ACL tear, which just made him a shell of his former self when he went to the Dolphins, Raiders, and Lions.

With smaller quarterbacks starting to dominate the league, we may never see another one who was 6-foot-4, 260 pounds, and could throw it deep while also running for first downs like Culpepper.

17. Carson Palmer

This must be the section for ridiculously skilled passers with amazing peaks who were ruined by injuries in the 2005 season. Carson Palmer had all the accolades from college as a Heisman winner and No. 1 overall pick, but the Bengals made us wait a year to see him. His debut in 2004 was not good after 10 games, but then he played the Browns and threw four touchdowns in a 58-48 win. Then he led an incredible comeback win against a very good Baltimore defense, throwing for 382 yards and three touchdowns. Then he played well against New England before leaving the game injured and his season was over. This would be a precursor of things to come.

The young quarterback seemed to figure things out in those last three games. In the 2005 preseason, he was the opposite of Daunte Culpepper, who had those incredible stats I just referenced. Palmer only completed 52.2% of his passes with 6.45 YPA that August. It didn’t look pretty, but then again, neither did the preseason for rival Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh. He was 16-of-36 and averaged 4.03 YPA. The Colts were also 0-5 that preseason. I remember being worried about all these things, then the real games started. Culpepper was awful, Palmer and Ben were terrific, and the Colts started 13-0 that season. So yeah, 2005 was the end of taking preseason seriously for me.

Palmer had a stellar season in leading the Bengals to a division title. His passer rating was over 100.0 in 11 of the first 12 games. He won the pivotal game in Pittsburgh that regular season. The Bengals were the No. 3 seed and finally back in the playoffs. Then disaster struck on the first drive against Pittsburgh as Palmer was rolled into after completing a 66-yard pass on his first dropback. He tore both his ACL and MCL and his season was over.

Palmer had good numbers in 2006-07, but he was never quite up to his 2005 level. Then injury cost him 12 games in 2008, he had a ton of close wins in 2009 that led to another wild card loss, then a ton of close losses after regression hit hard in 2010. Just like that, he demanded a trade out of Cincinnati and was with the Raiders where he did nothing of value. Palmer wound up with Bruce Arians in Arizona in 2013 and had a so-so season that still resulted in 10 wins, but no playoffs. In 2014, he was 6-0 as a starter, but once again injury took him out early and the team was stuck with Ryan Lindley come postseason time.

In 2015, Palmer seemed to put it all together again for the first time since 2005. He led the league’s most vertical offense and led the NFL in YPA (8.7), YPC (13.7), and QBR (76.4). He had big-time wins in prime time against the Seahawks and Bengals in consecutive weeks. He was the most consistently great quarterback from Week 1 to Week 17 that year, which is why I will always say he should have won MVP over Cam Newton.

But that injury to his index finger late in the season seemed to bother his performance down the stretch. Palmer barely got past the Packers in the divisional round, a 26-20 overtime win, for the first and only playoff win of his career. I made a naïve bet on a message board back in 2005 or 2006 that Palmer would never win a playoff game in his career. It was foolish, but damn if I didn’t nearly win that one. Sack-less Packers should have gone for two after the Hail Mary.

I was hyped for the NFC Championship Game in Carolina, but the Cardinals didn’t bother to show up. Palmer threw four picks and it was a blowout loss. The team lost too many close games in 2016 to return to the playoffs, then Palmer was injured again in 2017 and missed nine games before retiring.

It is very unusual to see a quarterback have his two peak seasons a decade apart, but Palmer did that. He helped lift two franchises in Cincinnati and Arizona that we are used to seeing struggle. But his career definitely leaves you wanting more as there were just too many injuries. With some better health, he had a shot at the Hall of Fame.

16. Lamar Jackson

I’m not sure if I have been vague or clear as day with my thoughts on Lamar Jackson so far. He is obviously ranked very high after only three seasons and 41 starts. There are outstanding numbers everywhere from his record (31-10) to his passing stats (68 TD-18 INT, 7.5 YPA, 102.6 PR) to rushing for over 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons. He could easily eclipse Michael Vick’s rushing if he stays healthy, and I think he’s much further along as a passer. His unanimous MVP was 100% legit and earned in 2019.

Yet, timing is not on his side as he’s doing this in the shadow of Patrick Mahomes, who has taken the position over since 2018 and is a far better passer than Jackson. While Mahomes succeeds in multiple ways, I still feel like Jackson has a limited number of game scripts that he can follow to success. You don’t want him throwing a lot or getting into a shootout or needing a big comeback. The Ravens are a front-running team, and when they match up with Mahomes and the Chiefs, Jackson just can’t keep up.

I’m also worried that Buffalo with Josh Allen could leapfrog the Ravens as the main rival to the Chiefs in the AFC if January’s playoff game is any indication. Jackson leading the Ravens to their lowest point total of the season in three straight playoffs is very concerning. I also still have my doubts that he can maintain this rushing volume over an extended period without suffering significant injuries. As we have seen with other quarterbacks, those injuries can really wear a quarterback down and limit his career success.

I want to see Jackson improve his passing ASAP because he has definite Hall of Fame potential already.

15. Donovan McNabb

McNabb is a perfect example of a quarterback who was able to improve his passing and rely less on his legs when he got older and more experienced. From 1999-03, he only completed 57% of his passes and was at 6.2 YPA. The Eagles won largely on the back of a great defense while McNabb relied on his legs and a lot of screen passes and timely calls from Andy Reid. Even though he went to four straight Pro Bowls after his rookie season, I was not as impressed with him as McNair or Culpepper from that era.

There were also the postseason losses where you can count on McNabb to have multiple turnovers as he did all seven times he lost. Having as many picks as points (3) in the 2003 NFC Championship Game loss at home was worse than his uneven performance against the Patriots in Super Bowl 39.

But it was in that 2004 season where McNabb was at his best after he got Terrell Owens. While it never got better than that year, McNabb improved his time in Philadelphia (2004-09) by getting his completion percentage up to 60.6% and his YPA up to 7.5. He was still never the most accurate passer, and I used to joke that his ground ball incompletions were attempts at killing Earthworm Jim. His inaccuracy combined with a tendency to scramble and take an above-average number of sacks kept his interceptions down.

McNabb was mostly healthy through 2004, but injuries started to plague him after the Super Bowl loss. I can recall a sports hernia (2005) and a torn ACL (2006). He had one more NFC Championship Game run left in him in 2008, but he was outdueled by Kurt Warner in that one. He never won another playoff game and his chances for the Hall of Fame went in the toilet after Philadelphia traded him to Washington in 2010. Getting benched for Rex Grossman there and giving way to Christian Ponder in Minnesota in 2011 was the end of the line for McNabb.

But he was definitely one of the top quarterbacks in the 2000s. He just did not deliver enough in crunch time outside of that one time the Packers lost Freddie Mitchell on 4th-and-26.

14. Eli Manning

I’ve been warning people for a long time that the Eli Manning Hall of Fame debate is going to brutally linger in the room for years. It seemed like no matter how bad he played down the stretch of his career, people want to make his induction inevitable while I think it is a real challenging debate.

I’m not going to lay out the debate today because I only have a few days left to write four game previews, a full season preview, and get ready for Thursday’s opener, but even my placement of Eli at 14th was very difficult for me.

On the one hand, we should be bowing down to this guy for his superhero act of taking out the Patriots in the Super Bowl twice, especially sparing us a world where that team finished 19-0 in 2007. I’ve said Eli led the greatest drive in NFL history in Super Bowl 42 and I’m sticking to it. That drive four years later with the throw to Mario Manningham was pretty sweet too, his eighth game-winning drive in 2011, Eli’s best season in the NFL.

On the other hand, when Eli wasn’t going on those incredible Super Bowl runs, he was either 0-4 in the playoffs with shoddy numbers or failed to get there at all. He finished 117-117 as a starter in the regular season, which is a fairly accurate representation of his career. He had weeks where he could look like Peyton, then he had weeks where he looked like Cooper Manning. Hell, he had quarters where he could fluctuate between those levels of play. He was just not the mark of consistency like his older brother, though he was quite durable and a total flatliner no matter the situation.

From 2005-12, Eli was 77-51 as a starter in the regular season, always leading the Giants to a record of .500 or better. He had the volume stats but never the great efficiency stats. Combined with the two Super Bowl runs, that may not be the foundation for an elite quarterback, but it is the foundation for a Hall of Fame career. But starting in 2013 when he threw 27 interceptions, Eli finished just 39-60 as a starter with pretty bland numbers while the rest of the league’s averages only got higher. He had a losing record in six of his last seven seasons, and that 2016 playoff season was nothing to write home about.

Look, I love that Eli’s career happened, but I just would not vote him into the Hall of Fame. But I’m sure there will be much more to say about this going forward.

13. Andrew Luck

Luck might be the hardest player to rank in the whole list because I have to balance the expectations of what we thought he was coming into the league, what he actually did when he was here, and the potential of what he could have been if he had better health and support from the Colts.

When Luck shocked everyone and retired before the 2019 season, I wrote about my top 10 Luck moments, so you should read t h at here since I don’t want to repeat them now. But since I started this list by saying that 2001 was my first full season watching the whole league, I missed out on any of the pre-draft hype for Peyton Manning in 1998. As we know, a lot of people considered Luck the best prospect since Manning or even since John Elway in 1983. By coming out of Elway’s alma mater (Stanford) and going to the Colts to replace Manning, it just seemed like the stars were aligning for Luck to be a generational talent and player. Someone who was smart and could lead an offense like Peyton did, but with more mobility and athleticism.

The truth is Luck was closer to a young, sandlot football Ben Roethlisberger than he was to an accurate, methodical Manning. He was a gunslinger and sometimes he shot wildly. Luck had his share of dumb interceptions and sacks where he was trying to play hero ball. Maybe starting out in a Bruce Arians offense had that effect on him, but it carried on after Arians left in 2013.

But even if the passing efficiency was never quite what we wanted to see with Luck, there was no denying he could carry a team like only the all-time greats did. Luck could catch fire and lead a comeback with the best of them. The Colts were unrecognizable from the Manning days as much of the roster was turned over, and head coach Chuck Pagano was less than an asset, but Luck put that team on his back for three straight 11-5 seasons to begin his career. I’m not sure how many other quarterbacks in the league at that time would have been able to do that with those rosters.

With the passing numbers exploding around the league, maybe Luck won’t look that interesting to future generations. But for someone who twice threw for over 4,500 yards and 39 touchdowns, that puts him in rare company with only Marino, Peyton, Brees, and Brady.

It still is shocking that Luck walked away from the NFL before his age-30 season at a time when the Colts finally looked to have an offensive line and good coach in place for him. His best was yet to come, but as we get ready to start a third season without him, the sad reality is that we’re all out of Luck.

12. Kurt Warner

This list has gone through many strange career arcs from Tommy Maddox, Matt Cassel, Case Keenum, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill, Nick Foles, and Michael Vick. But no one can match the magic of Kurt Warner’s story: something so surreal that it has been turned into a Hollywood movie.

From undrafted to the Arena Football League to bagging groceries to taking over in the preseason as an unknown and winning Super Bowl MVP after one of the finest seasons ever, even just the first part of Warner’s career sounds like a movie. But then he led one of the most prolific three-year runs of offense in league history, won his second MVP in 2001, and nearly won his second ring after a spirited comeback in the Super Bowl against the Patriots.

Then the injuries started, the fumbilitis took over, the sacks piled up, the scoreboard dried up, and he was benched for Marc Bulger, Eli Manning, and Matt Leinart in three different cities. Well, it’s a good thing Leinart always enjoyed the hot tub, because in 2007, Warner won his job back in Arizona and was able to prove that there was still something in the tank.

In 2008, Warner nearly had another MVP season after starting every game, but he settled for going 3-for-3 at making the Super Bowl every time he started 16 games in a season. He once again nearly had another epic Super Bowl comeback, but the defense let down against Ben Roethlisberger and Santonio Holmes. Warner still had one more playoff season and 51-45 playoff win over Aaron Rodgers left in him before getting injured against the Saints, his final game.

Warner only started more than 10 games in six seasons, but he had two incredible peaks with the Rams and Cardinals, lifting two of the weakest franchises in the NFL in the process. That is why he is in the Hall of Fame and one of the game’s great legends. He would be higher here if I was putting emphasis on 1999-00. To this day, 1999 Warner is still the last player to win MVP and a Super Bowl in the same season.

11. Brett Favre

More than anyone on this list, Favre is hurt by the emphasis on since 2001. It was before that period in the first 10 seasons of his career when he won three MVPs in a row, started two Super Bowls in a row, and led the league in touchdown passes three times and yardage twice.

In the last 10 years of his career, Favre led the league in interceptions (2005, 2008) more times than he did touchdown passes (2003). But it was still a very notable decade where he went 95-62 as a starter, was MVP runner-up multiple times, and he threw 253 touchdowns and 37,132 yards. Four times he led his team to 12 or more wins in the second half of his career, or something he did twice in the first half.

It’s just that those postseasons ended so badly, which is why I do not have him in the top 10. Favre threw six picks against the 2001 Rams, lost 27-7 at home to the 2002 Falcons, threw an awful pick in overtime against the 2003 Eagles (4th-and-26 game), threw four picks at home against a lousy 2004 Vikings defense, threw the big interception in overtime against the 2007 Giants in the NFC Championship Game, and threw a pick to Tracy Porter late in regulation against the 2009 Saints in the NFC Championship Game. The Vikings lost in overtime after Favre never touched the ball again. Favre also flopped late in the season with the Jets in 2008 after an 8-3 start. He also just had generally bad non-playoff seasons in 2005, 2006, and 2010 before he retired for good.

Favre gave us a lot of moments in that decade. The game against the 2003 Raiders the night after his father died was an incredible performance under any circumstances, but even more amazing under those. With the 2009 Vikings, his sweep of the Packers and the Hail Mary winner to beat the 49ers were must-see moments.

Favre was a lock for Canton before this portion of his career even started. Would he have made it just based on these last 10 years? I don’t think so. But that’s why I have him at No. 11 on my list.

Coming in Part VII (10-1): the top 10 are revealed. You probably know who I have at No. 1, but can you guess the top five?

The Decade the Scoring Juggernauts Died in the NFL

February 5, 2020 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The 12 teams with the most points scored in NFL history have won zero championships.

Read that sentence a second time and it comes off just as shocking. That’s a dozen teams, including eight from this decade, who scored more points — at least 527 — than anyone in the NFL’s first 100 years, and not a single one of them won the Super Bowl that year. Oh a few were pretty close, especially the 2016 Falcons and their 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI, but even that was a disappointing outcome for the offense.

I said eight of these teams happened in the last decade. The 2019 Ravens were the latest to join the group, going one-and-done at home after a season-worst performance on offense in that 28-12 loss to Tennessee to sour Lamar Jackson’s MVP season. Baltimore scored at least 20 points in every week of the regular season on its way to 531 points, the 11th-highest mark in NFL history.

The upset that night had me looking into just how crazy this was for the decade. I found that the 2019 49ers (ranked 17th in scoring since 2010) were the decade’s last hope for a top 20 team in scoring to win a Super Bowl:

T30-2010s

Well, as you know now, the 49ers lost Super Bowl LIV to the Chiefs, who ranked 31st in scoring this decade. The 2014 Patriots (22nd) and 2017 Eagles (30th) were the only top 30 teams in scoring to win a Super Bowl this decade.

That doesn’t greatly differ from the results of the previous decade where only two of the top 30 scoring teams won Super Bowls, but at least the 2009 Saints finished fourth:

T30-2000s

When you go back to the 1990s, eight of the top 25 teams won Super Bowls, including every team ranked 2-5:

T30-1990s

That was back when the league was just getting used to the salary cap and the NFC tended to dominate the Super Bowls until the 1997 Broncos upset Green Bay. As for the offensively-fun 1980s, four of the top 12 scoring teams won a Super Bowl:

T30-1980s

When we get back to the defensive decade that was the 1970s after the merger, we still saw five of the top 30 teams win a Super Bowl with the 1979 Steelers ranking third to end the decade:

T30-1970s

We know winning a Super Bowl takes a lot of things going your way, but scoring a ton of points in the regular season has never really been a big requirement for pulling it off. You can combine the top 30 scoring teams from the 1980s, 2000s and 2010s and have the same number of Super Bowl winners (eight) as the top 30 scoring teams from the 1990s alone. The 90s were really the decade for juggernauts to go all the way and deliver in the playoffs too with not that many upsets around the league. Had Buffalo’s Scott Norwood made his field goal in Super Bowl XXV and if the 1992 49ers were able to prevail instead of the Cowboys (and dust off Buffalo) for that Super Bowl, then we would have had nine of the top 17 scoring teams with rings that decade. Eight of the top 25 is still pretty great when you look at the history here.

With the 2000s, Bill Belichick’s Patriots obviously have a lot to do with those results. The 2001 Rams (20-17), 2004 Colts (20-3) and 2006 Chargers (24-21) were three of the top six scoring teams that decade, but they all lost to the Patriots in the playoffs with disappointing performances on that side of the ball. Of course, the 2007 Patriots also blew it in the Super Bowl with the 17-14 loss to the Giants to deny themselves a perfect 19-0 season. The Patriots’ 589 points that year still ranks second all time. I’d also be remiss to not give the 2000 Ravens some love here. We know they got to face Kerry Collins in the Super Bowl and played a lot of shoddy offenses in the regular season, but they also shut down two of the 10 highest-scoring teams of the decade in Denver (21-3) and Oakland (16-3).

Putting a bow on the 2010s, we experienced so many famous crash-and-burn efforts from some of the best offenses in NFL history. None were bigger than the 2013 Broncos, who lost 43-8 in the Super Bowl to Seattle’s historic defense after setting the record with 606 points in the regular season. From the first snap that led to a safety the Broncos were out of sorts that night. We also saw the Patriots crumble three years in a row (2010-12) in playoff losses, Aaron Rodgers’ best season in 2011 ended with a playoff dud against the Giants, and Belichick once again denied several teams (2018 Chiefs, 2018 Rams, 2016 Falcons) on his way to more rings for the Patriots. But at the very least, Patrick Mahomes put up 31 points in the second half of that AFC Championship Game loss for the Chiefs, the second-highest scoring team of the decade. Very few of these historic offenses can say they delivered in their playoff defeat, but the 2018 Chiefs, 1998 Vikings (damn kickers), and 2011 Saints (36-32 in San Francisco) are three who can say that.

However, one thing we’ve seen several times is that it’s not always your best team that wins the Super Bowl. The 2011 Giants, 2012 Ravens, 2015 Broncos and now 2019 Chiefs are all certainly proof of that.

Finally, for those curious here are the results for the top 30 team scoring defenses for each decade:

2010s: Three of the top nine won a Super Bowl (peak: 2013 Seahawks were 4th)
2000s: Six of the top 28 won a Super Bowl, including 1st (2000 BAL) and 3rd (2002 TB)
1990s: Six of the top 28 won a Super Bowl (peak: 1996 Packers were 4th)
1980s: Six of the top 20 using points allowed per game (due to strikes) won a Super Bowl (peak: 1985 Bears were 2nd)
1970s: Five of the top 23 using points allowed per game (due to season length change) won a Super Bowl (peak: 1973 Dolphins were 9th)

That’s 21 offensive champions and 26 defensive champions over the five decades. While you don’t want to rely too heavily on one side of the ball, it’s always fascinating to see how scoring juggernauts have had such a rough time throughout NFL history. If you look at the top 12 (13 total teams due to a tie) scoring teams from 1940-1969, only three of them won a championship. That includes the 1961 Oilers (first 500-point team) winning the AFL Championship Game by a 10-3 score, and the 1964 Browns (tied for 12th) shutting out the ninth-ranked Colts 27-0 in the NFL Championship Game.

The 1950 Rams still hold the NFL record with 38.8 points per game, but they lost 30-28 to the Browns in a classic championship game. Hey, at least they scored 28 and not just a field goal like the 2018 Rams did in Super Bowl LIII.

Coming full circle, I said the 12 highest-scoring teams have zero championships. The 1999 Rams are the reason it’s not the 15 highest teams that are ring-less. They still rank 13th with 526 points scored in that shocking Super Bowl-winning season. But even that example of The Greatest Show on Turf struggled mightily against Tampa Bay, scoring a late touchdown to win 11-6 in the NFC Championship Game. They also caught a break on defense when Bert Emanuel’s catch was ruled incomplete, and then ended up winning the Super Bowl 23-16 over Tennessee after stopping a late completion short of the goal line.

Kurt Warner in 1999 is still the last regular season MVP to win the Super Bowl in the same season, though maybe that’s a streak for Patrick Mahomes to end next year. Yes, it’s all coming back to Mahomes one way or another this offseason. Just accept it now.