Tag: NFL

NFL Week 3 Predictions: This Lineup Sucks Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

After a slow first week, Week 2 was much more compelling and offensively productive in the NFL. But as the title suggests, the Week 3 schedule looks pretty weak with no true standout game and a long list of injuries bringing down the quality of many games.

You know things are bad when there are 3 games on at 4:00 and the best one might be watching the Chiefs play the Bears after one of the worst weeks in Chicago franchise history.

Sunday could be so bad that you’ll actually be looking forward to Steelers-Raiders, hoping for yet another 3-point finish as 5-of-6 meetings between these teams have been.

Monday night could be the best part of the week, especially if the Rams are dangling an 0-3 start in Cincinnati’s face with the Joe Burrow injury situation up in the air.

This week’s articles:

NFL Week 3 Predictions

I had the 49ers winning big on Thursday night, which might just be the start of a week filled with blowouts as half the games have a team favored by a touchdown or more.

Going back to SNF in Week 1, I’m on a 17-2 SU and 11-5-3 ATS run. I’m always nervous about following up a great week because of regression and it’s still early in the year. Week 3 is arguably the hardest week to predict because you are trying to balance which data point to trust more (Week 1 or Week 2).

I wrote about my upset pick of Saints over Packers above, but I also like the Titans to force Cleveland into a passing game that Deshaun Watson is no longer cut out for. I also think the Rams pull it off Monday night, but that’s really a result of thinking we might see Jake Browning at quarterback for the Bengals.

I think the Lions-Falcons game is the one most likely to push this week. Definitely one of my favorite picks for games decided by 1-10 points, along with LAC-MIN and PIT-LV.

Very much looking forward to Vikings and Chargers upholding their brands and delivering some fireworks as one of them is starting 0-3. I favor Minnesota because I just think the pass defense stinks that bad from the Chargers, and am trusting Kirk Cousins at home with Jefferson finding the end zone for the first time this season.

I like the weather (wet field), Baltimore injuries, and Gardner Minshew mania to give the Colts a cover in Baltimore.

My favorite Steelers prediction is for Kenny Pickett to finally throw 2 TDs in a game and for Matt Canada to finally have a 400-yard offensive performance in his 38th try. But for the Steelers to lose because Josh McDaniels and Jimmy Garoppolo light up the defense. But that one should be tight.

I cautiously take the Eagles on MNF, thinking Baker Mayfield turns into a pumpkin this week against a real team even if the Eagles have not been that impressive yet.

I also like Denver to keep it close with Miami as Payton tries to avoid starting 0-3 and becoming irrelevant in a hurry.

Bills-Commanders feels like a wild game I’d stay away from betting on.

Bill Belichick catches a break with the Aaron Rodgers injury. Should be a 15th win in a row over Jets.

If the Chiefs lose to Chicago, that is the worst loss of Patrick Mahomes’ career. You have to beat a team that’s lost 12 in a row and sucks on both sides of the ball. Especially after the DC resigned and Justin Fields was throwing the coaching under the bus. But with him talking about instincts, I love his rushing props this week. I’d even make sure you had bets on 100+ yards rushing for him. Not much passing though. I’ll take the Chiefs to wake up and Mahomes to light up the team that passed him up in the draft for that Son of a Mitch.

I’m big on Carolina and Seattle going over 42 as I think Andy Dalton is an upgrade over what Bryce Young (4.2 YPA) was doing out there. Give me a Miles Sanders TD. Give me Thielen and Hurst over in yards. Give me points in that one.

Finally, I just want to mention that teams favored by double digits on the road failed to cover in 10 straight games before Dallas won 27-13 in Tennessee last year against Josh Dobbs. Now they get him as a 12.5-point road favorite with Arizona, which has led in the 4Q against Washington and the Giants this season. But I’m going with Dallas by 14+ in that one.

But after so much scoring and close games last week, I would caution to be on the lookout for more games like TNF. Blowouts, unders, not many touchdowns. Just a bad week we have to get through.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 2

~ Scott ~ 20 Comments

Now that’s more like it. After a low-scoring Week 1, the NFL got back on track with a Week 2 slate (MNF doubleheader pending) that featured:

  • 10 games with a comeback opportunity
  • 10 300-yard passers (5 in Week 1)
  • 8 games where both teams scored more than 21 points (1 in Week 1)
  • 4 double-digit comeback wins (half in the 4th quarter alone)
  • 2 overtime games
  • 1 Hail Mary touchdown that will quickly be forgotten since it ended with a loss

Also, in Week 1, half the quarterbacks (16/32) had a QBR under 45.0 at ESPN. In Week 2, only 3-of-28 quarterbacks (10.7%) had a QBR under 45.0. I don’t have an updated database of this stat, but I have to imagine 3-of-28 would make this one of the best statistical weeks for quarterback play since 2006. At the very least, a week where not many people flat out sucked.

So far, it is looking like 2023 will be a very competitive season as teams like the Rams, Colts, and Cardinals may not be the epic dumpster fires they could have been. Even the Giants went from being outscored 60-0 to scoring 31 points in a win in one half today.

In the flash in the pan NFC, the Falcons, Buccaneers, and Commanders are all 2-0, though I’m not sure any of them has real staying power this year. Five of their 6 wins have been by a game-winning drive and the one that wasn’t needed a game-clinching pick-6 in a 3-point game today. The schedule will continue helping those NFC South teams, but I’m not ready to say any of these teams have “arrived” as surprises just yet.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Ravens at Bengals: When the Quarterback Health Pendulum Swings the Other Way

I haven’t been shy all summer about making the Ravens my pick to win the AFC North, and ultimately, they were my No. 1 seed and Super Bowl pick for the 2023 season. They haven’t let me down yet, and despite the injury concerns starting to mount, they still have health at the position that matters the most: quarterback.

It cannot be ignored that the Ravens were leading the AFC North in December in 2021 and 2022 on the day where Lamar Jackson suffered an injury that would end his seasons. Cincinnati then ended up winning the division both years, and it won a wild card game against backup Tyler Huntley, who fumbled on a quarterback sneak for the deciding touchdown.

I liked Baltimore all summer, and I liked them in this game because the quarterback health pendulum in the AFC North is finally swinging their way. Joe Burrow had a calf injury in July and missed a lot of camp and practice time. He simply may not be healthy enough to be starting games, but he is anyway. Last week, he threw for 82 yards on 31 attempts.

This time, he was 8-of-11 for 35 yards at halftime as the Ravens played ball control well and led 13-10 at halftime. Cincinnati’s only touchdown was an 81-yard punt return touchdown. The offense simply didn’t show up yet for the Bengals this season.

But after a red zone interception to start the second half, things did improve for the Bengals. They engineered two long touchdown drives on their final 3 possessions, though there was a bad 3-and-out in between.

Meanwhile, Jackson showed his value in what I would call one of the best games of his career. He only threw for 237 yards and rushed for 54 yards, but his game management was excellent. The Ravens averaged 3.0 points per drive, a league-leading number most years, and that’s even with a missed field goal and a clock-killing drive to close out the win.

Jackson helped the Ravens overcome a 2nd-and-23 in the fourth quarter on a drive that ended with a touchdown to Nelson Agholor to take a 27-17 lead. Then after the Bengals pulled to within 27-24 with 3:28 left, Jackson did his job and put the game away. He scrambled for 12 yards on a big third-and-3. Burrow, who finished with under 225 yards for the fourth time since 2022 against Baltimore, never got the ball back in a one-score game in the fourth quarter.

Baltimore has blown too many games like this in recent years, but not on Sunday. Now they are 2-0 with a road win over the 0-2 Bengals, who feel in worse shape than they did a year ago when they lost two tight games with the Steelers and Cowboys before going on a run. Burrow is also saying he tweaked the calf injury too. We’ll see how he looks on Monday night against Aaron Donald and the Rams in a Super Bowl rematch.

Clearly, it’s not how you start but how you finish in this league. But as long as Jackson remains healthy and plays more from the pocket as he did in this game, the Ravens are the team to beat in the AFC North this year.

Chiefs at Jaguars: Does Kansas City Have… a Defense?

Given what this game could have been and what it was, this was my dud of the week. I thought Jacksonville would make it more interesting after getting swept last year. Patrick Mahomes wasn’t on a high-ankle sprain, Travis Kelce was back, and Calvin Ridley was here to make a difference for Jacksonville at home.

Yet, the Chiefs had 12 penalties for 94 yards, turned it over 3 times, and they still won 17-9.

Wait, 26 points? It’s tied for the second-lowest scoring game involving Mahomes in his career. The lowest was 13-7 against the 2021 Packers in Jordan Love’s first start. The total was 51 points, so the 25 points under the total was the 5th-largest under performance in a game with Mahomes.

Mahomes targeted 11 different receivers in the first half, which felt like overkill for a team that searches for reliable targets. Kelce barely looked like a factor in his return until he caught a touchdown in the second half.

But had the Chiefs stopped nuking drives with penalties and taken better care of the ball – add another muffed punt, fumbled completion, and Mahomes was picked on an overthrown deep ball – this would have been a rout.

But that’s why they call it gambling. Just this week I wrote on another site about trusting your gut and doubling down on picks from week to week in this league. I then completely ignored myself.

In Week 1, I faded Calvin Ridley in his first game since 2021 in favor of Christian Kirk, the reliable target for Trevor Lawrence he built great chemistry with. Of course, Kirk had 1 catch for 9 yards while Ridley torched the Colts for 8/101/1.

Instead of doubling down on Kirk, I switched to Ridley for my week’s biggest parlay, thinking he would make a difference and have 60+ yards for the Jaguars in this game (O/U 72.5). Of course, Kirk caught 11-of-14 for 110 yards while Lawrence was 2-of-8 for 36 yards to Ridley. They just could not finish plays together, and that ended up being my only losing leg on a parlay I didn’t hedge. FML.

Lawerence was only 22-of-41 for 216 yards in what I would say was his worst passing game against the Chiefs yet. Chris Jones had 1.5 sacks in his return, including a big stop on a fourth down early in the game. That did not help Jacksonville’s efforts, but compared to 2022, they went backwards on offense in this rivalry, and it does not look like they are ready to step up to the big boys in 2023. This game was only moderately close because of Kansas City’s self-inflicted mistakes with all the false starts and turnovers.

Also, just like last week against Detroit, it is wild what teams do against Mahomes out of fear. The Jaguars were down 17-9 and instead of kicking a 34-yard field goal with 4:18 left (time plus 4 clock stoppages in hand), they went for a 4th-and-12 at the Kansas City 16. Not a 4th-and-2 but a 4th-and-12. I’m not sure about that one, especially when you are down 8 and would need another possession and score anyway to win this game. If you don’t think you can stop Mahomes again, then you’re losing the game regardless. I probably kick the field goal there, especially since Lawrence’s accuracy was poor.

Sure enough, Lawrence threw incomplete to Ridley (FML) and that was that. Mahomes added to his quickly growing legacy of being the best quarterback ever in the 4-minute offense. He scrambled 14 yards for a first down, then on a pivotal 3rd-and-6 with 2:03 left, he improvised and found Skyy Moore with a deep ball for a 54-yard gain to essentially ice this one. The running game picked up one more first down to make sure it ended 17-9.

The Chiefs go into the history books again, not losing any of their last 35 games by more than 4 points.

But with games against the Bears and Jets up next, the storyline of the Chiefs having an elite defense in 2023 should continue into October. We’ll see if that holds true when the tougher tests come up later in the season. But if you get the offense back to firing on all cylinders and actually sustain a great defensive performance, then I’m not sure anyone is beating this team this year.

They are playing C+ caliber games and were a Kadarius Toney drop away from being 2-0 against a pair of division favorites.

Dolphins at Patriots: Good Enough to Lose Close – Part 2

Same headline as last week for New England, which is 0-2 for the first time since 2001 after losing to another contender at home in a one-score game. But in many ways, it was an old-school Patriots game:

  • Bill Belichick’s defense helped contain the hottest passing duo from last week, holding Tua Tagovailoa to 249 yards and only 40 for Tyreek Hill.
  • He did this at the expense of allowing Miami to get more from its ground game, which would have been fine if not for a 43-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter by Raheem Mostert.
  • The Patriots blocked a 49-yard field goal in the third quarter.
  • Rookie corner Christian Gonzalez came away with an interception in the fourth quarter when the Dolphins were at midfield with a first down.
  • An aborted snap by Miami killed a 3rd-and-1, then the Dolphins missed a 55-yard field goal that would have given them a 10-point lead with 2:14 left to all but ice it, leaving the door open for the Patriots.

But instead of a touchdown drive, the Patriots still had to put Mac Jones on the field with a bunch of No. 2 and No. 3 wideouts (at best). Bradley Chubb made his presence felt with a huge sack that set up a 2nd-and-18, which the Patriots never recovered from.

On a 4th-and-4 at Miami’s 33, Jones had to hurry a pass under pressure, and it was caught well short of the sticks. The Patriots sunk their 2022 season with an ill-advised lateral in Vegas, but this time the lateral was necessary. It almost worked too, but the offensive lineman was reviewed to come up inches short of the first down. Game over.

Just like last week against Philadelphia, the Patriots were inches away from converting a fourth down on a potential game-winning touchdown drive. I think it is possible the Patriots would have gone for 2 and the win here, but we’ll never know as they came up short again.

It wasn’t the kind of performance that should be vaulting the Dolphins up the lists of power rankings, Super Bowl odds, or Tagovailoa for MVP. But it was good enough for a win against a team that used to be harder to beat. Alas, Tagovailoa is the first quarterback to win 5 straight games against Belichick. He hasn’t played the best against his defense by any means, but this is where the AFC East is now in the 2020s.

Chargers at Titans: Nothing Has Changed for the Chargers

Chargers coach Brandon Staley wanted no part of hearing about the Jacksonville playoff loss after the Chargers fell to 0-2 with another blown lead.

Technically, Staley is right that a January playoff loss is not the reason the Chargers lost these last two games in the 2023 season. However, I don’t think he gets to avoid this narrative as his team continues to blow games it seemed to have in hand, and his defense continues to suck with the game on the line.

I would pose these questions to Staley.

Why is it Year 3 and every game still comes down to you relying on Justin Herbert to perform miracles and make sure the defense doesn’t have to come back on the field to blow it?

You say your roster has finishers, yet why aren’t any of them on defense, your specialty? In Herbert’s 5 game-winning drives last season, this is how much time was left on the clock so that your defense couldn’t find a way to blow it:

  • 4 seconds vs. Titans
  • 15 seconds vs. Cardinals
  • 0 seconds vs. Falcons
  • Walk-off in overtime vs. Broncos
  • 9:29 vs. Browns, who later missed a game-winning 53-yard field goal with 0:11 left

Congrats on the missed field goal. Your defense hasn’t produced a legitimate stop to preserve a close win since forcing the Steelers into a 4th-and-32 in 2021. By the way, that was the game you blew a 27-10 lead in the fourth quarter of, and you again relied on a Herbert touchdown pass to regain the lead.

The Titans couldn’t throw last week in New Orleans, and yet Ryan Tannehill almost couldn’t miss in Week 2 against this defense. He was 20-of-24 for 246 yards with his below-average receivers. The only issue was taking 5 sacks as the revamped line was missing rookie first-round pick Peter Skoronski.

But once again, the Chargers were in a dogfight after leading 11-0 early. Herbert’s second touchdown pass to Keenan Allen gave the Chargers a 21-17 lead with 14:38 left. On the next drive, the Chargers ran the ball on 3rd-and-4 and punted on a 4th-and-2 at their own 42. Weren’t you the 4th-down guy for a hot minute in 2021?

Later, the Titans scored a go-ahead touchdown, which was answered by a game-tying field goal to force overtime by the Chargers. Short throws and a big 3rd-down sack by Harold Landry kept the Chargers out of the end zone from the game-winning touchdown.

In overtime, Herbert threw three straight incompletions as the team missed Austin Ekeler against a Tennessee defense that loves shutting the run down. The Titans had no issues moving into range for Nick Folk to hit a 41-yard field goal to win the game 27-24.

The Chargers have lost 4 straight games, and this was actually the first time they allowed fewer than 30 points during this stretch.

At this rate, Staley will soon learn what a finisher looks like on the Chargers. It will be the person who takes him to an empty room to see the boss.

Jets at Cowboys: Back to Reality

There was a lot of wishful thinking that the Jets could salvage this season after losing Aaron Rodgers and upsetting the Bills on Monday night. But either the Cowboys are too good, or the Jets are going to be awful, because this 30-10 rout was tough to watch. The Jets basically made one play on offense, a 68-yard touchdown pass to Garrett Wilson. Otherwise, Zach Wilson was 11-of-26 for 102 yards and 3 picks.

At least the picks didn’t happen until it was 27-10 in the fourth quarter, but the Jets failed this game in the sense that they couldn’t even be competitive as the “run the ball and play great defense” team they need to be with Wilson at quarterback.

Wilson ended up accounting for 36 of the team’s 64 rushing yards. You would have thought Breece Hall could have been leaned on, but he had 4 carries for 9 yards. The fuck is that?

Defensively, the Jets forced 0 turnovers, allowed 9-of-18 on third down, and Dak Prescott (31-of-38 for 255 yards) generally did what he wanted to. CeeDee Lamb caught 11-of-13 targets for 143 yards, so it’s not like you can’t throw on these guys like they’re the 2009 Jets or something.

With 15 more Jets games to go, it’s really a shame what happened to Rodgers. This team’s brutal early schedule was going to be tough with him, but there are going to be more ugly days ahead for this team.

Dallas, my Super Bowl pick in the NFC, is looking great at 70-10 on the scoreboard, only the 7th team since 1970 to be at least plus-60 through two games. But it will be nice to see them play a real team who can hit back instead of these New York punching bags.

Oh shit, they get Arizona next too. At least they face the 49ers in Week 5. With the Eagles not impressive so far, the Cowboys and 49ers may be the best in the NFC this season.

49ers at Rams: Shanahan Continues Mastery of McVay

The 49ers have the most talented offense in the NFL and look like the most complete team so far. But after this 30-23 win, I think it’s safe to say the No. 1 thought on the minds of football fans is can Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua co-exist on the Rams and build the greatest receiving duo of all time? All these guys do is get open and catch the ball, so imagine if there were two of them.

Nacua did it again, going over 10 catches and 100 yards for the second week in a row, the only player to ever start his career like that. His 15 catches are a single-game rookie record. He also has 25 catches in his first two games, shattering Earl Cooper’s record of 19 for the 1980 49ers. Before you credit Joe Montana for running Bill Walsh’s innovative West Coast Offense for that record, it was actually Steve DeBerg at quarterback in those games. Incredibly, Cooper was just a fullback (later converted to tight end) and only caught 213 passes in 93 games in his career.

But this surprising rise of a 5th-round rookie in Nacua, who only caught 107 passes in 4 years of college football at Washington and BYU, can only be surpassed by the continued success of Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant.

Purdy is the only quarterback in NFL history to go 10-0 in the first 10 games where he threw at least 20 passes. He did not have a touchdown pass in this one, but he led the offense effectively again, and he ran for a big game-tying touchdown before halftime with 1 second left where failure would have meant no points.

The second half looked closer to last year when the 49ers harassed Stafford into sacks and turnovers. They did it again, picking off a pair of passes. The big one came with the Rams down 27-20 with 4:58 left. While the 49ers went three-and-out after that pick, they were already in the red zone and added a field goal for a 30-20 lead.

Eventually, the Rams ended up kicking a 38-yard field goal on the final snap that only accomplished screwing over bettors who had 49ers -7.5 in this 30-23 final.

The Rams did not have a play longer than 20 yards, but you have to hope they can get Kupp and Nacua going together in a few weeks. Stafford’s ability to lock onto a receiver may be unmatched seeing as how the only two 1,900-yard receivers in NFL history (Calvin Johnson and Cooper Kupp) had Stafford at quarterback. It can be a blessing and a curse but imagine if he finds a way to use both receivers together.

Despite the loss, Rams fans should feel better about this season than they did two weeks ago. McVay can still coach, but unfortunately, Shanahan continues getting the best of him.

Commanders at Broncos: Did They Hire the 7-9 Version of Sean Payton?

When the Broncos were up 21-3, I figured I could get away with a single paragraph recap of how Sean Payton got Russell Wilson to hit some deep balls with his new toy (Marvin Mims), and it was an easy first win for Denver. But nope, they blew a league-high 7th fourth-quarter lead since 2022. The 18-point blown lead is the largest in Wilson’s career, and he took 7 sacks and his lost fumble in the second quarter was the turning of the tide in this one.

Washington hung in there with Sam Howell passing for 299 yards against what was supposed to be a strong secondary. The Commanders seemed to get stronger after Logan Thomas took a cheap shot from Kareem Jackson on a fourth-and-goal touchdown before halftime to cut the lead to 21-11. Denver’s offense continued to fall apart from there while the Commanders were able to take the lead for good early in the fourth quarter just as they did a week ago against the Cardinals.

Denver hurt itself with another penalty to wipe out a three-and-out, which Washington turned into a touchdown drive and 35-24 lead. The Wilson-led offense took a while to get a field goal to make it 35-27, then used timeouts to get the ball back with 48 seconds, needing 87 yards.

It will go down as a forgotten one-minute drill that worked out for a touchdown after an incredible tipped Hail Mary was caught from 50 yards out with no time left. But instead of forcing the third overtime game of the day, the Broncos had a specific play design that needed to go to Courtland Sutton, and Wilson’s pass was not caught.

I think you could easily argue defensive pass interference, which would have put the ball at the 1-yard line and a retry. But story of Payton’s career, he couldn’t get an obvious DPI flag in a big spot.

After losing winnable home games to the Raiders and Commanders and going to Miami next, the Broncos could easily be staring at an 0-3 start.

Giants at Cardinals: Was That Tanking?

The battle for New York’s worst football team was in rare form with the Giants doing their best to topple the Jets, who were simultaneously getting crushed by Dallas. Always nice to see something you’ve never seen before, and the Giants did that for those of us born after Alien came out in 1979.

The 2023 Giants were outscored 60-0 through six quarters of action this year. That has only been topped since the 1970 merger by the 1978 Baltimore Colts, who were outscored 86-0 early into Game 3 of their season before they finally got on the board. Worse, the Cardinals were the team doing this to New York. The same Cardinals who are projected to finish with the worst record and No. 1 pick.

But for a half, the Cardinals didn’t seem interested in Caleb Williams. Not when Josh Dobbs was running through defenders on a 23-yard touchdown run. But while we were making fun of the Giants, a switch appeared to be flipped at halftime. These teams came out much differently, and the Giants were able to explode for 31 points in the second half alone to come back and win the game after trailing 28-7 with 9:34 left in the third quarter.

My criticism of Jonathan Gannon’s defense in Philadelphia was that good, smart quarterbacks could tear his scheme apart with quick, short passes. Suddenly, that pass rush doesn’t get there at all, and the coverage is soft as he just wants to avoid the big plays. Well, the Giants immediately came out in the third and hit a 58-yard bomb to rookie speedster Jalin Hyatt. It also hurts when you don’t have players like Haason Reddick, Fletcher Cox, and Darius Slay to make your defense better.

Daniel Jones added a few occasional scrambles, but he basically picked apart the Cardinals on his way to 321 yards passing. He was only sacked 3 times for 9 yards, so the pass rush did not repeat the success it had against Washington last week.

The Cardinals were a missed field goal away from scoring on their first 6 drives, but they were scoreless on the final 4 drives. While James Conner had a big game with over 100 rushing yards, it is hard to say it didn’t look like this team was mailing it in and accepting defeat after the Giants tied it at 28.

With 4:25 left, the Cardinals went 1-yard Conner run, 3-yard Conner run, back-to-back false starts on the same player, and then a failed completion for 5 yards before a three-and-out punt. Weak.

Jones drove the Giants into field goal range from there and Graham Gano was good from 34 yards away with only 19 seconds left. Dobbs’ Hail Mary was knocked away incomplete and the game was over.

Maybe the Cardinals are not going to be 2-15 bad after blowing a pair of 4th-quarter leads to start this season. But when you look at the schedule, they might not win until November now after blowing this opportunity.

But maybe that’s perfectly fine with this franchise.

Seahawks at Lions: Detroit Better Hope This Isn’t Another Tie-Breaker

These teams play fun games. Last year, it was a 48-45 shootout, but this one was better since there were actually lead changes. Seattle led wire-to-wire last year, and that win was the main reason the 9-8 record was good enough for the No. 7 seed ahead of Detroit. The Lions better hope that doesn’t happen again after losing another winnable home game to this team.

The best quarterback duel of Week 2 was naturally Geno Smith vs. Jared Goff as everyone expected. Both were sharp, but Goff’s pick-six, which ended a nearly 400-attempt streak without a pick, looked like it would doom the Lions, putting them in a 31-21 hole with 8:04 left.

But Goff came right back to lead a touchdown drive, then Smith took a horrific sack on a third down back to his own 3, helping to set Goff up at the 50 with 1:44 left. However, Seattle’s defense held after it seemed like Detroit was content with overtime.

The Seahawks won the toss and received first. Just like the team used to do best in the early days of Russell Wilson a decade ago, the offense drove right down the field for a game-winning touchdown to end it without the opponent having a chance. Tyler Lockett’s second touchdown of the day secured the 37-31 win.

In the end, the right team won. The Lions were minus-3 in turnovers and turned it over on downs twice. The Seahawks missed 2 field goals in the second quarter too.

There is some “live by the sword, die by the sword” with coach Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness. Should the Lions have gone for it on a 4th-and-2 at their own 45 while leading 21-17 with 32 seconds left in the third quarter? They failed and the Seahawks only had to go 45 yards for the go-ahead touchdown, which they scored. Traditionally, teams punt there, hope to back them up, and protect the lead. Get the job done on your next offensive possession, and it’s not like points were guaranteed on a first down at midfield if you convert.

But it is what it is. The Lions are 1-1, winning a game they easily could have lost and losing a game they could have easily won. They just better hope they remain the team to beat in the NFC North and don’t have to compete with Seattle for another wild card tie-breaker.

Packers at Falcons: Hamstrung in Atlanta

The Falcons made this a lot harder than it needed to be. The spread swung from Falcons +1.5 to Falcons -3 due to the Packers not having their best running back (Aaron Jones), best wide receiver (Christian Watson), and best offensive lineman (David Bakhtiari). Even though Jordan Love was again very aggressive, he avoided any picks, but he did throw for just 151 yards. His running game only hooked him up with 61 yards, so the loss of Jones was crucial.

Running powered the Atlanta offense again with 211 yards on the ground, though Desmond Ridder did run for 39 yards and a huge touchdown himself on a 4th-down call while the Falcons trailed 24-12 in the fourth quarter. He also threw for 237 yards this week.

The red zone is where Atlanta made life difficult on themselves (2-for-5 on touchdowns). The offense was fortunate the defense held Green Bay without a first down on its 3 possessions in the fourth quarter.

Head coach Arthur Smith also made quite the gambling by going for a 4th-and-1 at the Green Bay 23 with 2:08 left in a 24-22 game. Granted, no one wants to kick a field goal and give an offense nearly 2 full minutes to get a game-winning field goal. But a failure there on a quick snap and there was a fair chance he’d never see the ball again. It almost looked like Smith would go for it again on a fourth down to really ice the game and make the field goal the last snap, but he kicked the 25-yard field goal with 57 seconds left.

Still, that is plenty of time to get into range these days, but Love was unable to get a first down. His pass on 4th down was not bad, but the receiver looked like he trapped it, so it was ruled incomplete. Even if he caught it, an illegal shift penalty would have negated the gain and set up 4th-and-15.

Fun win for Atlanta but being the home team and taking on a team without three of its best players definitely helped this week.

Bears at Buccaneers: Justin Fields Is Not a Serious QB

I find it hard to believe Justin Fields’ average time to throw was 3.03 seconds, the 6th-slowest time in Week 2 (source: Next Gen Stats). Every time I saw a clip of him today he was holding the ball forever and taking awful sacks. He ended up taking 6 sacks and the running game was held in check again with only 67 yards, including just 3 from Fields despite his short touchdown run.

While D.J. Moore had 104 yards and Chase Claypool showed up to catch a touchdown, it was still a poor offensive performance. The Buccaneers won out in yards 437-236, but it was still only a 20-17 game with 2:24 left.

Like last year, Fields only needed a field goal and couldn’t get in position. He tried to throw a screen pass to his running back and Shaq Barrett made a great play to snatch the ball for a pick-six.

You can certainly give credit to the defender for blowing this up, but that looked like a play that was going to gain no positive yards anyway. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield efficiently threw for 317 yards with 171 of them going to Mike Evans. The Buccaneers have scored 20 points in back-to-back games, something they did once all last season with the King of Kings at quarterback.

It was my prediction that Mayfield would outplay Tom Brady this year, but the Bucs would have a worse record because of what will happen in close games without the LOAT. That could still happen. Plus, beating up on the Bears and Vikings (two awful defenses in 2022) is not the best argument for this being anything but fool’s gold. But Mayfield is making this work so far.

Raiders at Bills: Buffalo Can Take a Deep Breath

Bills fans may have been nervous after the Raiders marched right down the field for a touchdown to start the game. But that was the highlight of the day for Vegas. Josh Allen played a very safe, controlled, and efficient game (31-of-37 for 274 yards and 3 TD) and spread the ball around well. The run defense held Josh Jacobs to -2 yards on 9 carries. They intercepted Jimmy Garoppolo twice, including a play where Matt Milano just flat out stole the ball from Jacobs. James Cook ran for 123 yards even if he padded a bit with a 36-yard run while the Bills led 38-10 at the two-minute warning.

But it was an all-around dominant team performance from the Bills, who might still be the biggest threat to the Chiefs in getting back to the Super Bowl. We’ll see how Baltimore and Cincinnati shake out.

Colts at Texans: Steichen’s First Win

When the Colts hired Shane Steichen and drafted Anthony Richardson, the logical connection was always that he could develop him on the Jalen Hurts curve that he did in Philadelphia. But maybe something a lot of us forgot here is that this means Richardson could be an effective goal-line rusher and score a lot of touchdowns like Hurts did last year on his way to a record.

I noticed it right away in Week 1 when it looked like Richardson was going to score 2 rushing touchdowns against Jacksonville before he left the game injured on the last drive. That is why Richardson to score twice (+1400 at FanDuel) was one of my favorite props this week. I just didn’t expect him to score on runs of 18 and 15 yards in the game’s first 5:47.

I also didn’t think he’d leave the game with a concussion suffered on the second one.

It is not a good sign at all that Richardson was unable to finish either of his first two games, but for what little we have seen, the potential is exciting. Even Hurts only has 3-of-33 career touchdown runs from longer than 10 yards out, so Richardson exploding like that looked closer to a young Vince Young (2006) or Lamar Jackson (2019). Just hope he can stay healthy, but Gardner Minshew was a heck of an addition as someone who can step in and sling it in a familiar system. Minshew only entered the game at 12:45 in the second quarter and still passed for 114 yards in the quarter, which is almost as many as Joe Burrow had for Cincinnati in his first six quarters this year (117).

As for Houston, it was a tough day with most of the starting offensive line out and no help from the running game from C.J. Stroud, who took 6 sacks and had to play from a double-digit deficit almost the entire game. But even in that suboptimal situation, he was 30-of-47 for 384 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no picks. He did lose one of two fumbles, similar to last week. But it is a good learning experience for the rookie.

After not getting a win over Houston last year, the Colts should feel more optimistic about the Steichen era after Sunday’s 31-20 win. But for a fanbase that has seen health problems end the tenures of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, it is a worrisome start for Richardson in that area.

Next week: Not looking great.

NFL Week 2 Predictions: Playoff Revenge Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The NFL’s Week 2 schedule already features some heavyweight matchups, but are these teams playing well enough for these games to be as good as possible? We are already seeing major injury concerns for several teams, which is unfortunate at such an early point in the year.

But one of my favorite stats this week is that the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals are all 0-1 after entering the season as the Super Bowl favorites in their conference. That has not happened since the NFC did it in 1982, and none of the Cowboys, 49ers, or Rams made the Super Bowl (won by Washington). Of course, it ended up being a 9-game strike season after the players went on strike following Week 2, so maybe that’s not the best comparison to make this year. All I know is the Chiefs (drops) and Bills (turnovers) largely had self-inflicted losses against teams that had serious playoff aspirations. The Bengals did their annual disappearing act against the Browns, but 24-3 and Joe Burrow passing for 82 yards feels like something potentially different this time. We’ll see if the Ravens, my Super Bowl pick, can capitalize this week.

Bengals-Ravens is just one of the big matchups this week. The Jaguars will also try to get playoff revenge on the Chiefs after adding Calvin Ridley to hopefully have the firepower necessary to deal with that team, which should be getting Travis Kelce and Chris Jones back. The Lions can also get some revenge on the Seahawks for last year’s 48-45 loss that provided the tie-breaker for Seattle to get the No. 7 seed.

This week’s articles:

Week 1 Story: Why were offenses so bad in Week 1? I look at everything from the injuries, rain, high number of division games, and the main culprit being the historic lack of experienced quarterbacks starting for teams they have multiple years of experience with.

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 2 at 365Scores – I’m pissed I went 0-7 on this last week when so many of my other articles were strong (6-1 on prime-time picks, 5-1 on computer picks, 2-1 on best bets, and 6-4 on player props)

NFL Week 2 Predictions

I’m taking the push for TNF because the article I wrote Wednesday night had a pick of Eagles -6, and I should have knew something fishy was going on when it was changing to -5.5 on FanDuel just before kickoff. Having said that, the Eagles covered Week 1 in NE when they really didn’t play well enough to deserve it, and they wouldn’t have deserved it in this game either. The Vikings lost 4 fumbles, including one of those stupid through the end zone plays, and the Eagles again looked rough in the passing game outside of two bombs to DeVonta Smith. But they are 2-0. The secondary is just lacking with lost players and injuries right now.

Home favorites are only 2-8-1 ATS this year. Rough start.

I found myself liking the regression there with these first four picks, but really I just liked Atlanta all week with Green Bay’s hamstring injuries, the Lions to light up Seattle, the Bills to get right against the Raiders, and I am fading Chicago after last week’s garbage performance.

Then by the time I got to the Tennessee game I figured I need to throw an upset in there as I just feel like that is a tricky game for the Chargers, who are unlikely to have Austin Ekeler. They probably wouldn’t run much on the Titans anyway because of that defensive scheme, but really my favorite picks for that game are the under 45.5 and the over in Herbert’s pass attempts (38.5).

Last year the Colts couldn’t beat the Texans, but I’m just basing things off what I saw in Week 1 and I feel like Richardson can move his offense better than Stroud and use his legs for a win. I really like Richardson anytime TD scorer again this week.

Big AFC games: I’m going with the Ravens and Chiefs in close ones. Maybe 27-24 for Kansas City and 23-20 for Baltimore. I just don’t think Joe Burrow is healthy enough on that calf and he was not effective against the Ravens last year. It sucks that Baltimore already has a lot of injuries, but it sounds like Mark Andrews is playing. Most importantly, Lamar is there, and it’s time this team gets to have him in a big game. As for the Jaguars, I like what Ridley adds to the offense, but I’ m still going to trust the Chiefs with their other 2 elite players back.

Good win for the Rams last week but McVay has been owned by Shanahan outside of one quarter since 2019. I really like Brock Purdy to throw over 1.5 TDs again, something he’s done in 8-of-9 games when he throws 20+ passes. Remember, the Rams were a defense Garoppolo usually had good numbers against. Now the Rams have Aaron Donald and a lot of random starters. I like Purdy to keep rolling here and Stafford to not get the same protection he had in Seattle.

NYG-ARI is a toilet bowl I wouldn’t put much money on. Brian Daboll is 7-0 ATS after a loss, but after seeing how Arizona sacked Sam Howell 6 times and what the Giants did, I’m at least hedging my bets and having the Giants escaping with a 1-to-4 point win in that one. They could lose it too. You don’t really think Arizona is going 0-17 yet do you? They almost clipped Washington last week.

NYJ-DAL is the other New York trap game after what happened last week. Obviously, Dallas should roll to an easy win over Zach Wilson, but something about trusting the NY defense here makes me think it’ll at least be close as long as Wilson does not gift them turnovers. It’s not like Dallas was on fire offensively in Week 1. I also remember Sam Darnold beating Dallas in another year with big playoff expectations. If anyone is capable of screwing this up, it’s Dallas.

Coin flips for DEN & MIA games but I like Jerry Jeudy coming back and the NE OL is really injured. Mostly just curious to see if Belichick holds Tyreek under 100 again on SNF.

Monday double-header: I think the Saints get their first game-winning drive from Derek Carr and the Panthers lose a 52nd straight game when trailing in the 4th quarter. As for the Pittsburgh game, my best bet is Steelers over 9.5 1H points. They can’t be worse than last week, right? I’m picking them for the upset too just out of history. The Steelers have won 20 straight home games on MNF (9-0 under Tomlin). They usually deliver as a home underdog, last week aside, but I also think the 49ers are way better than Cleveland. Maybe T.J. Watt can force Watson into strip-sacks that set up short fields for the offense. But if the Steelers implode in this one then I’m quickly fading them going forward.

I did say watch them go from being the hottest offense in August to one of the worst in September when real games are played.

But I’ll be back Monday morning with the recap of Sunday’s action.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 1

~ Scott ~ 20 Comments

In framing the 2023 NFL season as the year of uncertainty, I at least thought there would be more points in Week 1. Only a fantastic, back-and-forth game between the Chargers and Dolphins saw both teams score more than 21 points this week. If the Jets-Bills game on Monday night does not do that, then it will be the first time since 2008 that Week 1 had just one game where both teams surpassed 21 points.

Forget points. What about seeing more teams with 200 net passing yards? Many quarterbacks failed to pass for 150 yards this week, making it feel like a trip back several decades on Sunday. The sacks in many games contributed heavily to the low yardage.

There were 18 teams that failed to hit 200 net passing yards in Week 1 with one game to go. That’s almost half the total from the last 4 seasons combined for Week 1 (35). It is the most since 19 teams did it in 2008.

There were 11 quarterbacks with a QBR under 30.0, which is more than the last two seasons combined (10) in Week 1.

These performances suddenly make Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (minus Travis Kelce) look not so bad in Thursday night’s loss against Detroit. Hell, the Bengals just lost 24-3 in Cleveland. If the Bills lose on Monday night, that would be 0-3 for the top teams in the conference.

While the AFC has the better quarterbacks and deeper pool of contenders, the NFC elite just may be the three best overall teams in the NFL. They were flexing early on Sunday too:

  • The 49ers led 20-0 in Pittsburgh before winning 30-7
  • The Eagles led 16-0 in New England before hanging on 25-20
  • The Cowboys routed the Giants 40-0 in New York

That was a combined 76-0 start for those teams before they allowed any points. We’ll see how the Jets and Bills look Monday night, but this was a great week for the NFC’s best teams and a lot of question marks for the many AFC contenders.

Maybe these teams need to start going back to playing more starters in the preseason games. Things were looking rather sloppy in a lot of these games. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni already said he’ll reevaluate their preseason approach next year.

Glad the NFL is back but this was not that memorable of an opening weekend. I predicted Chargers-Dolphins would be Sunday’s top game, so hopefully my prediction for Jets-Bills being an instant classic works out too. In all, 9 games this week had a comeback opportunity, which is pretty normal. However, not a single team came back from a double-digit deficit to win, which happened at least once every week last regular season when 50 teams did so (NFL record).

Dolphins at Chargers: Game of the Week

After writing 6,750 words for a week I just said wasn’t that memorable, I saved the best game for last, and yet I don’t have that much to say about it. What can you say about a shootout with so many lead changes where neither team ever led by more than 7 points? It’s great.

After arguably the worst passing game of his career against the Chargers last year, Tua Tagovailoa had what I think is the best passing game in his NFL career on Sunday. He passed for 466 yards and 3 touchdowns, and he made some really stellar throws in big spots.

Of course, Tyreek Hill was also spectacular with 215 yards and 2 touchdowns, including the game winner on a perfect throw with 1:45 left. That put the Dolphins up 36-34 after the extra point failed, which should have been a huge deal, but new coordinator Vic Fangio’s defense made sure it wasn’t.

As for the Chargers, it was an odd game offensively that also reversed the script from last year’s 23-17 win over Miami when Justin Herbert had a career-high 39 completions. This time, Herbert only attempted 33 passes while the Chargers rushed for 234 yards, only the third time in the Herbert era they have rushed for 200 yards.

The first game with Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator produced great rushing results, which is exciting to think about the potential from when this team is not playing a passing game that can be as lethal as speedy Miami.

But for all the good things the Chargers did, there were some Chargering moments that caught up with them.

  • After tying the game with 9 seconds left in the first half, the Chargers let Miami get off two big passes, and J.C. Jackson was penalized 30 yards for defensive pass interference on the second one, leading to a 41-yard field goal with no time left as Miami took a 20-17 lead into the locker room.
  • Even when Jackson tried to redeem himself with his first interception in a Chargers uniform in the third quarter, he returned it from 5 yards deep in the end zone, sticking his offense at their own 4 instead of a touchback. That led to a three-and-out (nearly a safety on a Herbert sack) and set up a 35-yard field for Miami’s offense, which instantly struck with a Hill touchdown after he burned Jackson (eventful day).
  • Down 36-34 with 1:45 left, the game-winning drive attempt quickly went to waste after Herbert was penalized for intentional grounding on what looked like a busted play. He was then sacked to bring up 3rd-and-29, got a chunk, then took a game-ending sack on 4th-and-12 after Fangio sent heat.

Game over. The Chargers join the 1963 Vikings (against Johnny Unitas’ Colts) as the only teams in NFL history to score at least 34 points, rush for 200 yards, and have zero turnovers in a home loss. Teams are now 165-2 when they do those things in a game.

The Chargers technically blew another one, but Miami was worthy of winning this game. Tua and Hill were as good as ever. In a sea of bad games, this was a spectacle you had to see.

49ers at Steelers: The Preseason Is a Lie, Part I

While I did like the Steelers as an upset pick, there was a thought in my mind all week that their preseason results are going to blow up spectacularly in their face this September. Watch them go from scoring 5 touchdowns on 5 possessions with the starting offense in August to being one of September’s lowest-scoring teams.

Sure enough, the Steelers played awful football and only managed a touchdown drive before halftime in a 30-7 loss, the biggest margin of defeat at home in Mike Tomlin’s career.

It took the Steelers six possessions before they could even get their initial first down. By then, they were already down 20-0. Brock Purdy looked outstanding and had the week’s highest QBR (91.3). His chemistry with Brandon Aiyuk looked stronger than anything the Steelers had going with Kenny Pickett and his receivers.

This game also was a great reminder why no defensive player should ever seriously be in MVP consideration. T.J. Watt was an absolute beast with 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles, nearly stealing a ball from Purdy in the first half. But his contributions aside, the Steelers were crushed on defense with Christian McCaffrey breaking a 65-yard touchdown run behind some key blocks just 2 plays into the third quarter. The Steelers never put up a real fight after that knockout punch.

Pickett was sacked 5 times and threw just 1 touchdown on 46 attempts as that continues to be a struggle for him. Watching Purdy make a cut on a 3rd-and-12 scramble to convert for a first down had me chuckling that this guy could go last in the draft and the other guy was the first quarterback off the board. It was a total mismatch from the first snap.

So, the burning question: Are the 49ers this good or are the Steelers this bad? Time will tell, but this should be a wake-up call for the Steelers at how far they have to go to get back to being Super Bowl contenders. Last year, the Steelers were annihilated 38-3 by Buffalo and 35-13 by Philadelphia, two Super Bowl contenders like the 49ers look to be again. Otherwise, the Steelers were in all other games last year. But when they face a legitimately elite team, they really don’t stand a chance yet.

The AFC North race can turn on its head next week when the Ravens face the Bengals and the Steelers host the Browns, who held Cincinnati to 3 points. These teams could do a 180 in those division games, but if the Steelers can’t score against Cleveland either, then the “Fire Matt Canada” chants will get louder and louder.

But on Sunday, the Steelers had far more issues than just their offensive coordinator. I wouldn’t push the panic button on the streak of non-losing seasons coming to an end, but the preseason is a lie, and we should really stop paying attention to it.

Eagles at Patriots: Good Enough to Lose Close

Similar to the Cowboys-Giants game later Sunday night, it looked like the Patriots were going to get run out of their building because they couldn’t stop turning the ball over in the rain. Mac Jones was off on a pass that was deflected and returned 70 yards for a touchdown. Then Ezekiel Elliott christened his New England debut with a fumble on the next play, giving the Eagles a short field and another touchdown for a quick 16-0 lead.

Didn’t it used to be the Patriots who took over games like this? But the weather improved, and so did Jones’ accuracy. He threw some of his better passes of his career in this game, and the Patriots were back in it, down 16-14 at halftime.

It was a strange game for the Eagles. It took a long time for Jalen Hurts to break 100 passing yards (finished with 170). The running game was nowhere near as dominant as it usually is in the first game without Miles Sanders. Dallas Goedert did not have a catch.

The Patriots mostly outplayed the Eagles (382-251 in yards, 24-17 in first downs), but those pesky turnovers that have hurt them in so many games like this since 2020 were decisive again.

Still, the Patriots continued to hang around even after the Eagles led 25-14 with 5:33 left. Jones threw another touchdown to Kendrick Bourne, but a crucial 2-point conversion run by Jones was wiped out for a holding penalty. The end of this game looks much different if it was 25-22 instead of 25-20, because the Eagles were not able to close things out. Hurts immediately fumbled on the next play, which sounds like the New England we used to know. But the Patriots went four-and-out after a sack blew up the drive.

The Eagles again failed to end it after Hurts was incomplete on a 4th-and-2 pass at the New England 44 with 1:57 left. That set the stage for Jones, who was doing well until rookie Jalen Carter recorded his first NFL sack. A failed completion set up a tough 4th-and-11 at the Philadelphia 20. Jones threw a solid pass to the sideline to sixth-round rookie Kayshon Boutte. The initial TV angle made it look like a conversion, but the instant replay showed he clearly did not get both feet down. I’m not sure how the sideline judge blew that one, but replay got it correct, and the game was over. Another one-score loss for Belichick against a team that is likely still a top contender.

Jones is 1-9 (.100) at 4QC/GWD opportunities, the worst record among active starters (min. 10 games). This was one of his better attempts, but the end result was still another loss. For the coach who could seemingly do no wrong in games like this – this is Belichick’s 100th career loss in a game with a game-winning drive opportunity – the Patriots are only good enough now to lose close games against teams like this.

Cowboys at Giants: The Walking Dead

When the Giants lose, they at least leave no doubt who the inferior team was. If you thought the 38-7 playoff loss to Philadelphia was bad, the Giants basically knocked themselves out with a 16-0 first quarter in the rain against Dallas on Sunday night.

It was so bad I took a power nap in the second quarter and started watching the Daryl Dixon spin-off series for The Walking Dead universe at halftime. The Giants were fine for about 5 minutes, then they were hit with a false start, a fumbled snap, and a blocked field goal that was returned for a touchdown.

Later, Daniel Jones tried a short pass to Saquon Barkley on a 3rd-and-19, and he was popped, releasing the ball and that too was returned for a pick-six. This meant light work for the Dallas offense as Dak Prescott, who is 11-0 against the Giants since 2017, only threw for 143 yards on 24 passes. Jones ended up taking 7 sacks as the Cowboys looked incredible on defense. The Giants had 5 fumbles in the rain but were fortunate to only lose 1. The Cowboys protected the ball much better.

I think we already knew from last year that there was a gulf between these teams with the Cowboys and Eagles outscoring the Giants 78-7 over the last 8 quarters of meaningful action. But this was still a shockingly one-sided performance. The Giants are just the 12th team in the Super Bowl era (1966-present) to lose by 40 points in Week 1. They are the 5th team to lose by a shutout of at least 40 points.

Dallas is my NFC Super Bowl team, so I’m cool with that after one game. But the Giants unfortunately will be in prime time in 3 more games by Week 6, including trips to the 49ers and Bills.

I guess I’ll just have to find more TV shows to watch at halftime.

Bengals at Browns: $500 Million for These Quarterbacks?

You have to love the battle of Ohio this decade:

  • Since 2020, Browns coach Kevin Stefanski is now 6-1 against Bengals coach Zac Taylor, including a 5-1 record in games against Joe Burrow, who just signed the biggest contract in NFL history at $55 million per season ($275M total).
  • Stefanski always gets big quarterback production against the Bengals except for the last two games when Deshaun Watson was his starter, who is supposed to be his best quarterback after the Browns gave him a record deal worth $230M fully guaranteed.
  • On Sunday, these quarterbacks played in a game with 29 combined drives and just one drive gained more than 45 yards.

Burrow and the Bengals had a rough Week 1 loss against the Steelers last year too when he turned it over 5 times and took 7 sacks. But at least the Bengals eventually moved the ball in that one and would have won the game if not for an emergency long snapper situation botching two game-winning kicks from short distance.

This was just brutal as Burrow, who had a calf strain in preseason, finished 14-of-31 for 82 yards. He was sacked twice – Myles Garrett took him down on a 4th-and-4 in the fourth quarter – and the Bengals were 2-for-15 on third down. Cincinnati saw enough of Burrow and benched him with 5:15 left while still keeping Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon in the game with the starters. Mixon’s 22-yard run in the second quarter was the only Cincinnati play that gained more than 12 yards. Burrow was 0-for-8 on passes to Tee Higgins.

Was the calf that bad, should Burrow have sat out and waited to face Baltimore next week, or does Cleveland just own him? Time will tell what exactly happened here, but this was a shockingly awful performance.

Burrow is just the 8th quarterback to throw more than 30 passes and gain no more than 82 yards:

  • Paul Christman (1945 Cardinals at Lions): 7/36 for 80 yards
  • Jack Concannon (1969 Bears vs. Lions): 12/35 for 79 yards
  • Dieter Brock (1985 Rams at Bears, playoff game): 10/31 for 66 yards
  • Stan Gelbaugh (1992 Seahawks vs. Eagles): 9/31 for 66 yards
  • Kordell Stewart (1998 Steelers at Dolphins): 11/35 for 82 yards
  • Chris Weinke (2001 Panthers vs. Jets): 12/34 for 76 yards
  • Ryan Lindley (2012 Cardinals at Jets): 10/31 for 72 yards

Rough company. The Browns did not fare great through the air themselves, but anything looked better than Cincinnati’s effort. The Browns rushed for 206 yards with Watson (45 yards and a score) doing some of his best work with his legs.

We’ll see how the Bengals respond to this, because things are not getting any easier with Baltimore coming to town for a big showdown.

Buccaneers at Vikings: Close-Game Regression Begins

And so, it begins. After going 11-0 in close games and 8-0 at 4QC/GWD opportunities in the 2022 regular season, things were going to catch up with Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings this year. It only took one game against Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, but they finally lost a close game in the regular season too under O’Connell.

Justin Jefferson was still great with 150 yards, and rookie teammate Jordan Addison had a 39-yard touchdown to make a name for himself early. But Alexander Mattison did not fare well in replacing Dalvin Cook as he was held to 44 yards on 14 touches. The offensive line had a rough start with Cousins losing a fumble on an aborted snap and strip-sack. Cousins also had a big red-zone pick before halftime in a 10-10 game, a sour note on a half where he threw for 273 yards.

As the Vikings showed us in 2022, the margins between winning and losing can be razor thin in the NFL. Last year, things usually went right for the Vikings in tight games. This time, they were offside on a field goal that led to a first down and a touchdown pass from Baker to take a 17-10 lead.

While the Vikings tied things up to put themselves in line for another 4QC, the offense went three-and-out on its last two drives. The last one was short-circuited quickly by a 4-yard loss on a completion to tight end T.J. Hockenson, who had 8 catches for only 35 yards.

Props to the Buccaneers for being aggressive. They went for a 4th-and-1 at their own 32 in a tied game, and Baker converted on a sneak. The drive eventually stalled, but Chase McLaughlin made a clutch 57-yard field goal to take a 20-17 lead with 5:10 left.

The Buccaneers scored 20 points on the road one time all last year, and that included a pick-six in New Orleans. In one start with Baker replacing Tom Brady, they did it Sunday in Minnesota. But it was Baker’s legs again finishing the game in the 4-minute offense after he scrambled for a first down on a 3rd-and-3. Three plays later, Chris Godwin made a nice catch to convert 3rd-and-10 and ice the win.

I’m not sure the Buccaneers can win many more games with this offensive output, but this remains the formula for the team. Just keep it close into the fourth quarter. This won’t be the last time the 2023 Vikings drop one of these games they would have won last year.

Raiders at Broncos: Sean Payton Matches Nathaniel Hackett’s Debut in Score But Not Hilarity

No teams played more close games (15 each) or blew more fourth-quarter leads last year than the Raiders (6) and Broncos (5). Sure enough, they were in another tight game as neither team led by more than 7 points.

But just like Nathaniel Hackett a year ago, Sean Payton lost his opener with Russell Wilson at quarterback by a 17-16 final. At least this time the offense was getting the plays in on time at the goal line, and they did not try to win the game on a 64-yard field goal.

However, the results and some execution were still underwhelming. If you can name the most famous call of Payton’s career in New Orleans, you would pick the surprise onside kick in Super Bowl 44. To make an immediate impression on the Denver crowd, the Broncos started the season with a surprise onside. It would have worked if not for an illegal touch penalty, so the Raiders had a short field to score a touchdown to start the game.

The reason this 17-16 score is way different from last year’s loss in Seattle is that this was a very offensive game with a combined 13 possessions between the two teams. One of those was a kneeldown by the Raiders with 12 seconds left to get to halftime, so it was really 6 possessions per team for a total of 12 drives, a massive outlier. In fact, it might be the fewest possessions in a game in NFL history. The one I used to always point to for that was 2006 Colts at Texans, but that had 13 total possessions that weren’t kneeldowns. Raiders at Browns in 2020 also had 13 possessions.

Mistakes get magnified in a game like this with so few possessions. The only two complete drives in the third quarter saw the Broncos miss a 55-yard field goal and Jimmy Garoppolo made his only big mistake with a red-zone pick as Denver led 13-10.

But the Broncos settled for another field goal to lead 16-10, and Garoppolo did his thing on a 75-yard touchdown drive to take the lead with 6:34 left. Jakobi Meyers caught his second score on the day.

Wilson was not terrible with the 6 drives he had, but usually when he completes 27-of-34 passes, you expect more than 177 yards. Fittingly, a failed completion ended up being the offense’s last snap as an 8-yard gain on 3rd-and-11 was not enough to convert. Denver punted and the Raiders had 5:08 to burn, hanging onto a 17-16 lead.

The Raiders blew these games time after time last year, but this could be an area where Josh McDaniels trusts Garoppolo more than he did Derek Carr. On a big 3rd-and-8, Garoppolo went back to the hot man in Meyers, and he was tackled short on a nasty hit that would have brought up 4th-and-1 at midfield.

I have to say I understood where the defender (Kareem Jackson) was coming from there. If he doesn’t hit Meyers hard, the Raiders convert, and the game is all but over. It had to be a significant hit to stop his force short, and it was just an unfortunate collision that left Meyers down for some time. But he was able to get up and should be okay, thankfully. I’m just not sure what the defender can do better in that split second as he was just trying to save the game, not injure anyone.

The penalty for the hit gave the Raiders a first down. On a 3rd-and-7, Garoppolo showed some good patience and scrambled for 8 yards to ice the game and hand Payton a 17-16 loss in his first game with Denver, possibly a game with the fewest possessions in NFL history.

The Broncos tie the Raiders for the most blown fourth-quarter leads since 2022 with 6 a piece. We’ll see how things go with Wilson going forward, but the lack of possessions did produce a misleading final score. Still, it was a case of Denver coming up short again with this quarterback (no pun intended).

Packers at Bears: The Old Familiar Sting

Silly me. I thought early in the week that the Bears and Packers would play a fun, exciting game where both young quarterbacks played well, signifying a new beginning after decades of the Packers walking over this team with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Then once I saw that Christian “String Cheese Ligaments” Watson was out and Romeo Doubs was questionable, I changed my pick to the Bears, the team I spent the most time researching why they likely won’t have a good year as some thought.

Sure enough, the Packers rolled them 38-20 in Chicago. Those big YAC plays the Bears had in the preseason that I said wouldn’t translate to the real games, the Packers had a few of them in this game as Aaron Jones went off for 86 receiving yards on 2 catches. He finished with 127 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns to lead the Packers.

Jordan Love was solid in his first Week 1 start, but I would say his stat line (15-of-27 for 245 yards, 3 TD) was one of the more misleading ones in Week 1 because of the YAC. But he did a good job.

Justin Fields technically had one of his better passing lines (24-of-37 for 216 yards), but he still took 4 sacks, and he threw a pick-six that was an awful throw turned into a touchdown by an incredible effort from Quay Walker on defense. The Bears were down 24-6 with a minute to go in the third quarter before they finally found the end zone, so it was not a good game for this unit again.

It was bad for both sides of the ball, which was my whole issue with Chicago. How does a team that ranked dead last in passing and defense get so much better without making a change at quarterback, head coach, or either coordinator? Oh, Fields was 2-of-2 for 25 yards to D.J. Moore. The question is why not more targets? Moore had as many targets as Chase Claypool, who finished without a catch.

Will be interesting to see where these teams go from here, but Sunday was that old familiar sting of the Packers beating the Bears and looking better off at quarterback in the process.

Jaguars at Colts: Encouraging Signs from Both Teams

For the first time in 12 meetings, the home team did not win in Jaguars vs. Colts. But division games can be unpredictable, especially in Week 1. My research early in the week on this game showed that since 2009, Week 1 road favorites in division games were 5-22 ATS and 9-16-2 SU – truly abysmal records.

But I still went with the Jaguars, and frankly, the Colts should have covered. It was not the kind of performance I would say is repeatable for the Colts, because they scored a ridiculous fumble touchdown after many players gave up on the play thinking it was an incomplete pass, and tall receiver Michael Pittman Jr. scored a 39-yard touchdown on a WR screen. Not the kind of play you’d expect from him.

But Anthony Richardson, the “raw” prospect in the draft behind more polished, accomplished passers Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, had the best debut among the three rookie quarterbacks on Sunday. Richardson was 24-of-37 for 223 yards and that screen touchdown. He did take 4 sacks but only lost 8 yards on them. He also rushed for 40 yards and a touchdown, and he probably would have ran for a second to cover the spread late in the game if he didn’t pull up injured. It will hopefully be nothing serious.

For the Jaguars, they had some shaky moments, but Trevor Lawrence was able to lead the game-winning drive after falling behind 21-17. Calvin Ridley lived up to the hype in his team debut, catching 8 passes for 101 yards and a touchdown. But the teams were a combined 5-for-24 on 3rd down, keeping it a close game for most of the way.

Richardson threw his only pick right after the Colts fell behind in the fourth quarter, which is the kind of rookie mistake you expect. Without Jonathan Taylor, the Colts had no running game besides their rookie quarterback. Deon Jackson turned in an epic trash performance with 13 carries for 14 yards and a pair of lost fumbles. Even his 5 catches only produced 14 yards.

If they can work something out with Taylor and get Jelani Woods healthy at tight end, Richardson will have a more formidable offense around him. But I think after the season the Colts had with Jeff Saturday, looking semi-competent against the division favorite was a respectable job by coach Shane Steichen.

Let’s see how these Jaguars fare when they get a chance to drop the Chiefs to 0-2 next week.

Texans at Ravens: Pour One Out for J.K.

Not sure how much you can really say about Baltimore’s 25-9 workmanlike win over Houston. The defense only forced rookie C.J. Stroud into one turnover, but they also did not let him find the end zone. In his debut in Todd Monken’s new offense, Lamar Jackson did not have an MVP-caliber start to his season with 4 sacks and no touchdown passes or runs, but the connection to rookie Zay Flowers was already looking good (9-of-10 for 78 yards).

The Ravens avoided a close finish with a rebuilding Houston team, but injuries continue to be a problem. They already played this game without corner Marlon Humphrey and tight end Mark Andrews, and they lost top running back J.K. Dobbins to a torn Achilles. It is a brutal blow to a young back who already has a broken fibula (college) and torn ACL (2021) in his past. The Ravens also may have lost safety Marcus Williams to a torn pec (results pending).

This team, my Super Bowl pick, just needs to stay healthy because there is a path for them in this AFC. They will be in Cincinnati next Sunday in a big one with a chance to drop the Bengals to 0-2.

Rams at Seahawks: The Other Embarrassing NFC Wild Card Team Loss on Sunday

Just to recap, earlier this summer I was all in on picking the Rams and Seahawks to swap places in the NFC West this year. The Seahawks had to come back in the fourth quarter twice to sweep the Rams last year, Geno Smith is usually bad at comebacks, and the Rams did not have their 3 best players in either game. It was that close to both teams finishing 7-10.

But the Seahawks won those games, made the playoffs as the No. 7 seed, and I still wasn’t feeling them this year and predicted a losing record. But the Rams’ roster shocked me when I realized how many people they were missing as it really is a team where Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp play catch while Aaron Donald lines up with 10 NPCs. Then Kupp landed on IR and I couldn’t even name the receiver Stafford ended up dominating with in one of the more surprising final scores this weekend.

I really thought this game was either Seahawks win by 17 or Rams win a close one this time. But the second half reversal was stunning as the Rams outscored Seattle 23-0 after halftime. It wasn’t a dominant ground game either as the backs finished with 37 carries for 81 yards (3 short touchdowns too).

Stafford looked healthy and vintage with 334 yards passing, including 119 yards each to two receivers you wouldn’t count on to do that (Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell). I never even heard of Nacua, a 5th-round rookie, until Sunday.

Almost as importantly, Stafford was never sacked. That was a huge problem for the Rams last year when they were dealing with elite fronts in bad losses to the Bills, 49ers, and Cowboys. But against the Seahawks, Stafford was clean and dealing. Meanwhile, Geno passed for 112 yards for the entire game, continuing the late-season slump from 2022.

Sean McVay has gotten the best of Pete Carroll for years now, but without a healthy Stafford last year, he couldn’t finish the job in those losses. I’m not sure the Rams can sustain this when they play non-division games, but it was an impressive road win to start the season when many felt this team was heading to a race with Arizona for the bottom of the league.

But Seattle may have its own share of issues to deal with this season.

Panthers at Falcons: Bijan Robinson’s OROY Campaign Starts Well

The top quarterback (Bryce Young) and top running back (Bijan Robinson) in this year’s draft met as rivals for the first time. Not surprisingly, the one playing the easier position had the better day in a 24-10 win as Robinson’s first touchdown saw him break 3 tackles. It was not a play many backs in this league would make, so again, I concede the Falcons for being one of the only teams in a league who could justify drafting him at No. 8. At least we know they’ll use him.

But were they already using him too much? Robinson had 13 touches on the team’s first 28 plays. He actually finished with fewer touches than Tyler Allgeier (18 to 16), who scored a pair of touchdowns and led the team with 75 rushing yards. But wide receiver Drake London had no catches on 1 target and tight end Kyle Pitts only had a couple of catches for 44 yards. Desmond Ridder was 15-of-18 passing but for only 115 yards. They seem to be hiding him just as much as they did Marcus Mariota last year.

We’ll give the young offense time to grow, but I think the reason you end up in a 10-10 game going into the fourth quarter with Carolina is the lack of passing and the points that come in the passing game. The Falcons were also 2-of-10 on third downs. But a 21-yard run by Bijan, by far his best running play, set up Allgeier for the game-winning touchdown to break a tie with 14:12 left.

The Panthers have now lost 51 straight games when trailing in the fourth quarter, including an 0-30 record at 4QC opportunities (down 1-8 points with the ball).

Young did not have a good debut, finishing 20-of-38 for 146 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT. Safety Jessie Bates had a strong debut for Atlanta in making both picks. Young said after the game he needs to see the depth of the safety better, and hopefully that’s not an inference to his height being a factor in not seeing that. But he definitely had a tough job without DJ Chark available, and no passing offense in 2023 should be trying to go through tight end Hayden Hurst, who had a team-high 7 catches and caught Young’s first NFL touchdown pass.

A 16-yard scramble in the third quarter was Young’s longest play of the day. There should be better days ahead, but for now, this was the result Atlanta wanted. Bijan looking good and the defense taking advantage of a limited, inexperienced offense.

This is how they win in the NFC South this year.

Titans at Saints: Derek Carr Has a Defense, Take 1

This game and Broncos-Raiders were the easiest calls for games that were going to be decided by 1-8 points this week. But the expected low-scoring battle was even lower with the teams trading field goals.

Derek Carr made his Saints debut, and this really is the ideal setup for him. A soft division where he can be the best quarterback, solid weapons, a real defense for a change, and a shockingly easy schedule. Keep the games close and he can pull out several close wins to get this team a home playoff game in January.

The first test passed, but he did have some bad moments like a pick before halftime in scoring range, which maybe was karma for getting away with what looked like a fumble return touchdown on an earlier field goal drive.

But Ryan Tannehill was not doing himself many favors in keeping the calls for rookie Will Levis quiet. Not only did he toss 3 interceptions, but he missed some big plays down the field too.

Despite trailing 16-9 going into the fourth quarter, the Titans kept settling for field goals. You can definitely question Mike Vrabel on the last one as he went for a 29-yard field goal on a 4th-and-6 at the 11 with three timeouts left. With the offense struggling to move the ball, why not just take that chance for a 6-yard gain when you’re already deep in the red zone? Maybe you convert and go on to take the lead with a touchdown. If you fail, you still have the 4 clock stoppages to get the ball back, and even with the field goal, you still need to force a 3-and-out (or turnover) to get the ball back in a 16-15 game.

Vrabel is usually aggressive, but after going a league-worse 0-6 in 4QC/GWD attempts last year, maybe he is just getting conservative. All I know is the Titans remain a defense that is great at stopping the run and forces you to throw a lot against them. The Saints took advantage on a 3rd-and-6 when Carr had Rashid Shaheed, an underrated and underutilized weapon last year, running wide open for a big 41-yard gain. The throw and catch both could have been a little better as Shaheed’s momentum carried him out of bounds to stop the clock, and he almost didn’t control it with two feet in. But big play there.

On a 3rd-and-4 to ice it, the Saints broke one of their only good runs of the day, but Jamaal Williams had the ball knocked out after he was past the sticks. Fortunately, the bounce went the Saints’ way, and they were able to kneel out the clock.

We’ll need to see some more points on the board from this offense, but if Michael Thomas can stay healthy with Chris Olave, they seem to have a trio here now with Shaheed finishing with 89 yards and a touchdown.

Carr was 3-48 with the Raiders when he failed to score at least 17 points, so this 16-15 win is unfamiliar territory for him. We’ll see how often they do things like this in 2023, because the rest of the division did not show a lot of scoring prowess on Sunday either.

Cardinals at Commanders: The Preseason Is a Lie, Part II

To conclude the week and the reminder that the preseason is a lie, Washington was the other team I let myself get tricked by based on August results. Some of my favorite prop picks and parlay builders all week were Sam Howell over 1.5 touchdown passes (+154), Jahar Dotson touchdown, and Dotson going over 43.5 yards (or whatever it was) in a comfortable, 7-point cover for the Commanders at home against lowly Arizona.

But none of it worked out. The Commanders barely got the win, needing a strip-sack from Josh Dobbs – he seems to have an issue with these – to set up a short, 29-yard field going into the fourth quarter with the team down 16-10. Howell scrambled for the go-ahead touchdown, then the defense finished the job the rest of the way as Dobbs had 3 fumbles (2 lost) in the game.

But I thought this was setting up perfectly for Howell to shine against this defense and generate all those headlines about how the Chiefs miss Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator when the reality is they miss Travis Kelce and having any wide receiver who can catch a ball.

This was not good, because I thought they would attack Arizona with short, decisive passing, yet Howell showed his inexperience and took 6 sacks, including a brutal fumble for a touchdown where he was trying too hard. The run game only averaged 3.3 yards per carry too.

The Commanders got the 20-16 win, but this should have been a layup instead of a struggle. If this is how they are going to play Arizona, then I am already having some regrets going with 7 wins for Washington. Arizona may also win more than 2 games if that defense can keep up the pass rush.

But it is only Week 1 and teams shake off bad starts all the time. The only problem is we used to have some assurance that they would bounce back when it was Aaron Rodgers having a brutal game (2021 vs. Saints), the Patriots melting down in the Miami heat, or the Saints losing a shootout in the Superdome on opening day.

As the great Michael Irvin once said, we’re losing recipes.

We are dealing with a lot of new coaches and quarterbacks around the league. Rookie quarterbacks were 0-3 and new coaches were 0-5 on Sunday. Some of them are going to figure it out, and some showed their true colors on Sunday.

Strap in as this is going to be another odd season.

NFL Week 1 Predictions: The Brady vs. Mahomes Slander (Plus Awards) Edition

~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

For a yearly tradition, I dropped my super long NFL season predictions and forgot to make my award predictions until Saturday. So, you are getting season awards picks, Week 1 picks & betting analysis, and a quasi-Close Encounters recap of Lions-Chiefs with a factual retort of some Tom Brady nonsense that popped up one game into his retirement.

NFL 2023 Award Predictions

I am not going to let Thursday night change my choices as I have been on the record all summer of saying I’m not on Patrick Mahomes winning back-to-back MVPs nor do I like Jahmyr Gibbs for OROY. My Aidan Hutchinson darkhorse DPOY did however not get off to a great start. But these are the picks I’m feeling okay about:

  • MVP: Aaron Rodgers, Jets
  • OPOY: Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals
  • DPOY: T.J. Watt, Steelers
  • OROY: Bijan Robinson, Falcons
  • DROY: Jalen Carter, Eagles
  • Comeback Player of the Year: Lamar Jackson, Ravens
  • Coach of the Year: Sean Payton, Broncos
  • Assistant Coach of the Year: Todd Monken, Ravens OC

If you saw my Super Bowl pick of the Ravens, you’ll understand the Monken selection and hopefully the Lamar Jackson one, who I have staying healthy this year. We can have the Damar Hamlin discourse another day.

I think the MVP is going to an AFC quarterback for sure, but I also think the top trio of Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow may not be worth your bet. I’d sooner choose from Rodgers, Lamar, Justin Herbert, and even the Florida guys (Tua and Trevor Lawrence). Maybe this will start to make more sense when you see my Week 1 picks.

NFL Week 1 Predictions

Welp, already taking a loss after the Chiefs played one of their worst games of the Mahomes era. More on that one below.

I was going underdogs early before taking the favorites late. Again, I spent the 2023 preview intro talking about uncertainty this year, so we will start to learn things this weekend like if Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, and Jordan Love are for real, if the Rams and Cardinals are going to be truly terrible in the NFC West, and if the Vikings are going to shit their pants in close games after going 11-0 last regular season.

But my surprise headline for Week 1, and this is cheating with 33.3% of the results in, is that Mahomes, Burrow, and Allen all lose in Week 1, signifying the deep AFC competition may be for real. The 2022 NFL season we were supposed to get is happening a year later in 2023.

I also love the Steelers as a Week 1 upset pick over the 49ers.

Sam Howell over 1.5 TD passes (+154 at FanDuel) is one of my favorite prop picks this week. He gets the awful Cardinals at home in a perfect Week 1 matchup. Plus, you can just see that headline of “Howell outshines Mahomes as Eric Bieniemy gets last laugh.” Just what we needed…

And while I know I’m the “Rodgers isn’t a good comeback QB” guy from over a decade ago, he has improved in that area, and I think he pulls one off against Buffalo to end a fun week.

In fact, here’s my new Friday column at 365Scores where I go over 7 picks I like for the weekend.

Just a couple notes before the Brady-Mahomes part.

Week 1 Rookie Quarterbacks

We get to see a trio of rookie quarterbacks start in Week 1 after there were none in 2022. Since 1998, rookie quarterbacks are just 12-20-1 in Week 1 starts. Even the list of winners, 2008 aside, is pretty uninspiring:

I would definitely bet against C.J. Stroud in Baltimore. Ravens -6.5 1H spread is one of my favorite picks this week. The other ones are division games, so there is always a chance there. In fact, that Jacksonville-Indy game has me shying away from that spread after uncovering some shocking research this week.

Week 1 Division Games

Maybe you noticed half the schedule is division games this week, but more interestingly, four teams are favored on the road (CIN at CLE, JAX at IND, DAL at NYG, and BUF at NYJ).

NFL Week 1 Road Favorites, 2009-2022:

  • Division games: 5-22 ATS (18.5%), 9-16-2 SU (37.0%)
  • Non-division games: 32-21 ATS (60.4%), 38-14-1 SU (72.6%)

Those records are shocking, but 5-22 for a spread record is insane. Now it is only 27 games over 14 seasons, so the fact that we have 4 that apply this weekend is also unusual. But in the season of uncertainty, embrace some weird shit going down. I would be very careful in leaning on those favorites this week. I think the Cowboys are the safest pick as Dak has not lost to them since his rookie season in 2016. Burrow is only 1-4 against Stefanski and has the calf injury. The AFC South has lost predictability, and you never know what a potentially volatile, high-variance player like Anthony Richardson might do in his debut. Then you have the Rodgers-Allen game on Monday night.

Should be fun stuff.

Even When the Chiefs Lose, Mahomes Looks Better Than Your Fake GOAT Did

If I can make it over 10,350 words of a season preview before mentioning Tom Brady’s name once, why can’t his cult-like following make it more than one game after his retirement before they have Patrick Mahomes’ name in their mouth again?

Insecure much?

In watching Kansas City lose 21-20 to the Lions on Thursday night, I certainly didn’t think it was the kind of game or performance that people would use to prop up Brady over Mahomes. The Lions deserved to win, especially after the horrible short-yardage calls the Chiefs had in the 2nd half. But it was a game where you’d make a mental note that Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, the team’s 2nd and 3rd-best players, were out. There is a considerable drop when you compare the top 3 Chiefs to the other 50 players. The defense was decent without Jones, but his presence could have did something to affect Goff on some of those clean, easy throws to his wideouts that drove the passing offense for the Lions. Kelce’s impact is even more obvious, and a Tuesday injury before a Thursday game was a tough break on short notice.

I said back in July that the Chiefs could have the worst receiver situation in the NFL if there is a Kelce injury or drop-off in his play and they have to rely on this WR group. I’ve been down on Kadarius Toney for months.

But it was still shocking how badly Toney played Thursday night. No one did more to lose that game than him. He dropped a perfect pass and turned it into a pick-six in the third quarter, Kansas City’s only turnover. He was unable to catch a 3rd-and-short pass in traffic that led to a FG. He lost a yard on a 2nd-and-1 run that led to another short FG. Then after the Lions went for a 4th down at midfield because they were still too worried to give Mahomes the ball back, Toney dropped another great throw that would have had the Chiefs near the 30 and in game-winning field goal range. At that point it would be on kicker Harrison Butker. But Toney dropped it as his confidence was already shot.

Almost as bad, Mahomes had another dagger on the very next play, but that was called back for holding. On 2nd-and-20, he threw a pass that should have got about half of what they needed, but Skyy Moore, the other bum of the night, dropped that one too. Then you get into desperate times on 3rd-and-20, then you end up with 4th-and-25 after Jawaan Taylor finally got a false start after flirting with penalties all night. At this point, the smartest thing the Chiefs could have did was quickly run out of bounds at their own 9, forcing the Lions to score 8 points to end the game, or give the Chiefs the ball back with time in a one-possession game. It’s the kind of situation no one’s ever really thought about, but this is what happens when you’re in no man’s land on 4th-and-20+ and know you can’t trust your defense to get that 3-and-out. Maybe we’ll see this come up later this season, but a team would have to be choking like a dog to get to 4th-and-25 with dropped passes and penalties.

Notice I didn’t say the quarterback taking sacks or throwing wild passes when a receiver was open. Mahomes even finished with a higher QBR (72.5) than Goff (64.2) according to ESPN. I didn’t even call out the direct snap to Blake Bell that led to rookie WR Rashee Rice losing 3 yards on a 3rd-and-1 on the next to last drive — the worst call of the night.

But if you watched this game and concluded that Mahomes lost a game someone like Tom Brady would have won, then you are admitting you didn’t actually watch this game. Is he going to make Toney and Moore suddenly catch passes? Toney left a solid 10-to-17 net points on the scoreboard out there by himself. Would Brady will his defense to only give up 3 points to Jared Goff like he did in Super Bowl 53? This is now the 2nd time Mahomes has been bested by Goff late in a game after Orlando Scandrick dropped a game-clinching interception in the 54-51 game in 2018.

Mahomes may not have been great Thursday night, but he did what he had to against a division title favorite on a night the team was shorthanded. He made the kind of dagger throw he makes look easy that would have led to another night with 250 passing yards, a couple touchdowns, and the game-winning drive in a 23-21 win. But egregious drops and penalties killed that idea this time.

You know the Mahomes fatigue is setting in when people are pouncing on a game like this. That also shows how the standard is so high for Mahomes after they kept it so low for Brady for two decades. All Brady ever had to do was win and he’d get the credit no matter how ugly it looked or how little part he played in it.

This game was barely in the books before I got this reply from a random I would happily never knew existed without social media:

Very few things irk me more than a “he did more with less” line. When someone drops that one on you, chances are they are full of shit. Most of the time, they pick an example that is neither someone doing more nor having less to do it.

Brady’s 2006 season is often brought up in this context, a year where the Patriots were led in receiving by Reche Caldwell and finished 12-4 and lost in the AFC Championship Game. But what they don’t tell you is the Patriots had an elite defense that allowed no more than 21 points in 16 games that year (playoffs included), tied with legendary Super Bowl-winning defenses like the 2002 Buccaneers and 2013 Seahawks for the most such games in a season since 2002 realignment. They also had a very strong offensive line, solid running game, and all the coaching tactics (legal or otherwise) of Bill Belichick.

Sure enough, someone had to bring back a clip from 2006 when the 5-1 Patriots were playing Minnesota on MNF. Just watch this clip where Tony Kornheiser spends a minute ball-washing Brady:

If you were not following the NFL back then, this is what all the mainstream NFL media sounded like in covering Brady. You couldn’t watch a game on CBS with Phil Simms and Jim Nantz without hearing the latest “Brady record” that was always something related to a team win-loss record or some long interception-less streak that only counted the regular season because he was too busy saving his multiple red-zone picks for the playoffs back then. Sean Salisbury and the ESPN talking heads would push the “Brady Just Wins” narrative daily. Kornheiser bought into it fully here.

Then there’s the “you can’t name a receiver he plays with” narrative that picked up steam here and followed him the rest of his career no matter how ridiculous it was. This team developed some of the best slot receivers, receiving backs, and tight ends in later years while targeting countless established free agents, and someone like Deion Sanders would still go gleefully on NFL Network to say “no one knows these receivers!” Dude, it’s your job to know them.

Tight end Ben Watson was a first-round pick. Do we not know him because his most memorable play was chasing down Champ Bailey on what should have been a 100-yard pick-six thrown by Brady in the 2005 AFC divisional? Instead, the Broncos scored a 1-yard touchdown so Brady fans can blame the defense for those points allowed. My favorite Watson stat is that he had a career-high 825 yards when he was 35 years old (ancient for a TE) and Drew Brees was his QB in New Orleans. Watson had 500 yards in a season 5 times in his career, but he only did it once with Brady.

And did we just forget New England legend Troy Brown and receiving back Kevin Faulk from the Super Bowl years? Sure, Brown first had his breakout under Drew Bledsoe, and Faulk had his most productive receiving season with Matt Cassel, a high school QB, in 2008. But they were smart, heady players for that team for many years.

Watson, Brown, and Faulk were 2nd-to-4th in targets for the 2006 Patriots, by the way. Reche Caldwell was No. 1. He was a mid-2nd round pick by the Chargers who should be best known there for fumbling away a potential game-winning drive for Drew Brees. Twice even (2002 Chiefs, 2005 Eagles games). Guess Brees should have willed him better. I’d take the 2006 version of Caldwell over Toney and Moore in a heartbeat right now.

There is plenty more I can say about how nauseating the historical coverage of Brady was in 2006, but we’re one game into the 2023 season. Let’s pace ourselves. The last thing I wanted to share was something I noticed after updating Mahomes’ failed game-winning drives for which he has 16 such losses now in his career. These are games where he had the ball with a tie or 1-8 point deficit in the fourth quarter or overtime.

Brady only had 16 failed GWDs through the 2009 season, his 10th year in the league thanks to how historically great the Patriots were at making clutch field goals and shutting offenses down on defense with the game on the line. Also an incredible amount of luck, but again, let’s pace ourselves.

When you compare Mahomes’ 16 failed GWD attempts to Brady’s first 16 failed GWD attempts, it shows you one quarterback has been clutch as they come even in defeat while the other was usually a huge reason why his team lost these games.

I highlighted in green each area where the quarterback either fared better or had the more adverse situation to overcome.

I can barely express how lopsided this is, presenting Mahomes as the much better quarterback in defeat. Keep in mind I’ve been tracking games like this for 20 years now, so I saw very early on that when the Patriots lost during this time, Brady usually had awful games. Since he rarely had to experience those losses where your kicker misses at the end or the defense gives up a late score, he was severely lacking in good statistical performances in team losses. He really didn’t start adding some of those until his final decade in the NFL.

So, when people say things like “when Brady loses, it’s his fault, and when Mahomes loses, it’s everyone else’s fault”” you show them this and tell them “yes, exactly.” Because that’s usually how it goes. Do you think a QB completing under 50% of his passes, barely scraping 5.0 YPA, and a 1 TD, 10 INT ratio was being clutch?

Meanwhile, you are looking at 16 of the 20 losses in Mahomes’ career so far. This table does not include the 29-28 loss to the 2018 Chargers where the defense blew a 14-point 4Q lead with 4 seconds left as the offense did not register a possession down 29-28. The Chiefs still had the late lead in 75% of these games. Mahomes led 10 game-tying or go-ahead drives compared to just 3 for Brady.

From this table, it’s not even close.

  • Brady had 25 more passing yards but on 34 more attempts.
  • He did have a lower sack rate.
  • He did have worse starting field position, which was surprising.
  • But in terms of drives where the QB turned it over or on downs, Brady more than doubles up Mahomes at 15-7.
  • Mahomes’ field goal unit failed him twice while that happened to Brady once in his 23-year career (2012 Cardinals).
  • Brady did not have enough time to beat the 2009 Colts, a game infamous for his failure on 4th-and-2 deep in his own end that set up that finish.

But the other tied scenarios here further show how laughable this stuff really is. The 2002 Chargers loss is doing some heavy lifting for Brady with 2 appearances. In that first showdown with a young Brees, the Chargers took a 21-14 lead with 14:14 left in the 3rd quarter after LaDainian Tomlinson scored a 58-yard touchdown run.

Brady had 5 drives to answer that score and did this:

  • 3rd QT INT #1 (floated right to defender)
  • 3rd QT INT #2 in scoring range (clean pocket; didn’t even see the LB)
  • Marc Edwards stuffed on 4th & 1 at SD 39 w/12:33 left
  • A bad run call on 3rd & 10 (after 2 Brady INC) that led to a punt
  • After needing 96 yards with 1:51 and 1 timeout, Brady completed a pass to Faulk, who wanted to lateral, got blown up, fumbled, Chargers recovered ball at midfield with 8 seconds left. It was already over.

See for yourself. The funny thing is while Brady was throwing picks, his defense stopped LT on back-to-back runs with 1 yard to go on 3rd & 4th down, and blocked a 50-yd FG to keep him in a one-score game. Typical Patriots. But this was a bad game for him and the Faulk fumble was not that big.

It’s not like Faulk fumbled at the opponent’s 32 in a 36-35 game with 1:20 left, and the defense, which blew a 35-24 4Q lead, failed to get the ball back even after the opponent went for a 4th=and-1 in their own end because they were that afraid of giving Brady the ball back. That’s what Clyde Edwards-Helaire did on a fumble against the 2021 Ravens for Mahomes.

While Edwards getting stuffed on 4th & 1 hurt, there was still 12:33 left. Imagine waiting patiently for your defense to get Jacoby Brissett and the 2019 Colts off the field from a FG drive that took 8:34, and now you’re down 16-10 with 7:40 left. Your receiver gets a facemask penalty on a 1st-down catch, and now you’re in 1st-and-20, soon to be 3rd-and-28 after a shockingly bad 2-yd run on 2nd-and-30. But you find a receiver anyway and he gets 27 of the 28 yards, stopping short at the end instead of running with momentum for the first down. You hand off to the RB on 4th-and-1 and he gets stuffed. By the time you see the ball again, it’s 19-10 and you have 2:27 and no timeouts to pull off a miracle. You get the FG, but no onside kick recovery, so you lose 19-13 in one of the weirdest losses of your career.

Mahomes also threw for over 320 yards in both of those games and had one total turnover. At least that one didn’t go right off his receiver’s hands, so he is human and will make mistakes.

But if people would stop with the silly narratives and start calling these games out for what happened, start looking at how the quarterback played and how his teammates helped or hurt him, we would have a clear sense of who was the LOAT, and who was held back by his teammates from being the true GOAT.

Mahomes will be just fine, and the cult of Brady better hope the Chiefs keep making mistakes like drafting stiffs over DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, and Christian Watson. Cause when the Chiefs find the true successors to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce for the second phase of Mahomes’ career, the record books won’t be safe.

Right now, we only know the names of these Chiefs receivers because they were so spectacularly awful Thursday night. That’s the real takeaway from Game 1 of 285. Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to share this link with people who will simultaneously tell me Julian Edelman was a nobody and he should easily be in the Hall of Fame.

2023 NFL Predictions

~ Scott ~ 16 Comments

In most NFL offseasons, I come up with my Super Bowl vision for the upcoming season rather early. But this year, I really did not figure things out until a few days ago. Even then, I am not loving the pick.

As a reminder, here is my past decade of preseason predictions. One of these old Super Bowl picks is something I will reuse this year too.

My predictions were not good last year, though I guess I should have trusted my gut on the Eagles going 14-3 with an easy schedule. I also seem to follow an up-and-down pattern.

In 2021, I was better than ever, only off by an average of 1.28 wins for each team and getting 28 teams within 2 games of their final record. But last year, I was off by 2.78, tied with the 2020 COVID year for my worst, and I only had 14 teams within 2 games of their record.

Let’s just say my faith in Russell Wilson (Broncos) and Matt Ryan (Colts) working out for their AFC teams was rejected by the script writers. My vision for Buffalo being the team to beat worked out for most of the year, but after the Von Miller injury and the traumatic Damar Hamlin experience, the Bills looked emotionally wiped out by the time they lost (with ease) to the Bengals in the divisional round.

But I think choosing this year’s theme is easy and can be summed up in one word: Uncertainty.

Sure, Super Bowl 58 might just come down to picking one from the Chiefs/Bengals/Bills to take on one from the Eagles/49ers/Cowboys, but the rest of the league is grappling with a ton of uncertainty as we continue to see record quarterback movement, and not many head coaches are established with their teams as well.

But the quarterback experiments going on in 2023 are something we are not used to seeing at this level. Aside from Aaron Rodgers returning for a 19th season, the old guard is basically gone. We are in a new era, and there is already a game in Week 1 where teams might be starting Sam Howell against Joshua Dobbs (or something called Clayton Tune).

How many of these guys make it the full year? The 2022 season only had 10 quarterbacks start every game, the fewest since 1999. That even includes Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, who both played 16 games as their game against each other was cancelled after Damar Hamlin was taken to the hospital. It was the first time since 1935 that the NFL cancelled a game for non-strike reasons.

There are 15 quarterbacks this season who have fewer than 16 starts with their current team. Throw in the Arizona situation to replace the recovering Kyler Murray, and there are 9 quarterbacks with fewer than 16 starts in the NFL period.

This is a lot of uncertainty and a lot of learning to do about these new players as well as the old players in new situations. We were spoiled a bit by the Buccaneers and Rams winning Super Bowls right away with franchise quarterbacks. After Ryan and Wilson last year, you should not even assume Rodgers will be a hit in New York.

People can make their predictions, and maybe they’ll look good on them, but I would be suspicious of anyone speaking with confidence that they know Jordan Love will be a bust or Desmond Ridder will be a good one in Atlanta. We just don’t know. Throw in Howell in Washington, and there is a chance at least one of those new NFC quarterbacks will pop this year and look good. But we really know less than usual this year.

Not to mention, the 2022 season was already a historically weird year.

Oh yeah, it may have ended with a Super Bowl between No. 1 seeds, and you will accuse me of saying this about every year. It is true that each NFL season comes with its own unique features, but last year really was a wild ride, and I am not just talking about the Vikings. You know, the team that pulled off the most shocking fumble recovery touchdown since the Miracle at the Meadowlands and set a record with a 33-0 comeback on their way to tying the record with 8 fourth-quarter comebacks in a season.

But the whole league was in comeback mode at record levels:

  • 50 teams won games after trailing by 10 points at any point in the regular season (single-season record; old record was 43)
  • 141 games were decided by 7 or fewer points (single-season record)
  • 156 games were decided by 8 or fewer points (single-season record)
  • 85 fourth-quarter comeback wins, including playoffs (single-season record; old record was 73)
  • The percentage of games with a 4QC opportunity (61.25%) was at its highest since 2013

Regression could be rough for Minnesota in close games this year, but what about the teams who kept blowing leads like the Raiders, Broncos, and Ravens? It probably is not a coincidence that Trevor Lawrence and Kenny Pickett were getting their comeback reputations built by beating the Raiders and Ravens late.

Speaking of the Steelers and Jaguars, it was a weird season for a lot of teams turning poor starts into strong finishes, or vice versa. Streaking was off the charts in 2022:

  • The 2022 Dolphins and 2022 Jaguars are 2-of-9 playoff teams in NFL history to have a 5-game losing streak during the season. They are only the 5th and 6th playoff teams to have 5-game streaks of losing and winning during the same regular season.
  • Four teams made the playoffs with a negative scoring differential in 2022 (Vikings, Giants, Dolphins, Buccaneers) – the most in a non-strike season in NFL history.
  • The 2022 Vikings (13-4) are the only team to win more than 11 games in a season with a negative scoring differential.
  • Only four teams in NFL history started 2-6 and finished with 9+ wins, and three of them happened last year (2022 Steelers, Lions, and Jaguars all finished 9-8).
  • The 2022 Titans join the 1994 Eagles as the only teams to win 7 games before ending their season on a losing streak of 7 games.
  • For the first time since the Steelers and Raiders in 1976, the playoffs had two teams on an active 10-game winning streak, but the Bengals (10) and 49ers (12) both lost on Championship Sunday.
  • For the first time since the merger, three teams who won 12-plus games (Rams, Buccaneers, Packers) in one conference all finished with a losing record the next season.
  • The 2022 Rams set an NFL record for the worst record (5-12) by a defending Super Bowl champion.

Did I mention the last pick in the draft almost went on an undefeated run to the Super Bowl before his elbow exploded?

So, you expect me to give you good predictions for 2023 and figure things out like if Sam Howell will be great, or if the Jets are getting a legitimate Rodgers when I still don’t even know what to think about so many things from 2022.

Is Brock Purdy really that guy? Is Jimmy Garoppolo going to get exposed in Las Vegas, or is Josh McDaniels another QB guru like Kyle Shanahan who will get the best out of him? Is Trevor Lawrence the real deal, or are we just overlooking how his defense won the division title by making Joshua Dobbs fumble and that he threw four picks before he threw a touchdown in that playoff game? Is Tua really that good, concussions aside, or did he just beat up on bad teams with the best speed at wideout in the NFL? Is Russell Wilson just cooked?

I tried my best this year. Since late July, I have been doing three full-length previews for every team except Buffalo, so that is a total of 95 published team previews at three different sites. The 365Scores previews are more or less my “official” previews as they are all longer (most around 2500 words) and have more research to them than the ones at BMR and OT. But practically every preview is 1500+ words, so that is 5000+ words per team, which is why I’m fatigued over previews and not looking forward to summarizing them all 32 more times here.

But I have to keep myself to a standard, and I have been posting these previews every year on here since 2012. I will include links to all the previews and you can choose to read how much you want. I did my best to not have a ton of overlap.

Note: The words written after each preview link may not necessarily reflect what is written in said link. You can only trust that the 365Scores previews have extra research. I’m just giving my thoughts on the teams here, 48 hours before opening night. Also, any over/under picks in these articles were subject to change as I made my final record predictions over the weekend after going through the schedule.

AFC WEST

1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)

365Scores Preview: The 95th and final team preview I wrote is the most epic one at over 5,500 words. I go through why the Chiefs were never supposed to win last year’s Super Bowl until they did in a truly one-of-a-kind manner that is the defining moment for Mahomes’ legacy right now. I also look at how the offense adapted without Tyreek Hill, and why the issues we thought would make the team take a step back in 2022 didn’t materialize, and how they could show up this season, a year late.

BMR Preview: Well, I wrote this blurb before I went to bed Tuesday morning, only to wake up to the news about Travis Kelce’s injury. Hopefully he only misses a game at best, because I did write back in July how a Kelce injury would make things scary for this offense. The Chiefs already lost offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., but I’d sooner be worried about a Chris Jones holdout taking real games away for the defense than to be concerned about those two departures. It just stinks that Kadarius Toney is so unreliable. He’s the only wide receiver who could turn a Netflix & Chill evening into a trip to the ICU.

OT Preview: No team has repeated since the 2003-04 Patriots, so this is the longest drought in history without a repeat champion. But expecting one team to reach a 4th Super Bowl in 5 years is tough, especially with the AFC getting deeper and the Chiefs have a lot of tough games. Only the 1990-93 Bills (0-4) and the 2014-18 Patriots (3-1) pulled off that Super Bowl run, but the Chiefs are down for making history. They have gone 33 straight games without losing by more than 4 points, two games shy of a new record.

2. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8)

365Scores Preview: This preview tells the story of how the Chargers ignoring a fatigued Gerald Everett in Week 2 in Kansas City could have been the butterfly effect of the season, changing everything from the AFC West winner to the MVP to the Super Bowl outcome. Despite holding a lead in the fourth quarter of every Justin Hebert vs. Patrick Mahomes matchup, the Chargers are just 1-4 in those games. Herbert has even led a go-ahead drive in 4-of-5 games, including three touchdown passes after the 2:30 mark.

But the Chargers saved their ultimate Chargering act for the playoffs in Jacksonville, blowing a 27-0 lead. These losses in front of a national audience have added to the perception that Herbert is not clutch or as good as Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or even Trevor Lawrence. But I nip that in the bud here by examining how he’s the only one of that group who was great as a rookie, he’s the only one who has to share a division with Mahomes (which limits his success), he’s the only one who has never had a solid defense, and he’s never been given a great, young receiver to flourish with like they have all had.

BMR Preview: The Chargers adding Kellen Moore at offensive coordinator is a good move that should be beneficial to Herbert and Austin Ekeler. The Chargers will continue to build around the pass, but they will hopefully air it out more, and the receivers must stay healthy. Quinten Johnston from TCU is good injury insurance, but I’m not sure if the team shouldn’t have drafted Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison instead.

OT Preview: If the Chargers are going to return to the playoffs, they need a big effort from the defense again in Week 1 against Miami, a potential tie-breaker scenario can come from that game. Last year, the Chargers won 10 games but the only team they beat who did not lose 10+ games was Miami.  We’ll see how the defense responds as Joey Bosa has not played a full game since Week 2, and corner J.C. Jackson was a major bust in his first year with the team.

3. Denver Broncos (9-8)

365Scores Preview: I am very excited to see how this union of Sean Payton and Russell Wilson plays out. If you look at NFL history, old quarterbacks simply do not get three chances to prove they are still good. If Wilson is still lousy under Payton this year, I am not sure what the team can do. The defense may also regress, but as long as the offense improves dramatically and the team finishes with a winning record, I like Payton for Coach of the Year.

BMR Preview: Forget ending the 15-game losing streak to the Chiefs. Can this team at least beat the Raiders once in the 2020s? Those division games will be critical, but oddly enough, some of Wilson’s best moments in 2022 came against the Chiefs. If Payton can get him back on track, this is a team that could be due for positive regression after blowing a handful of fourth-quarter leads last year. They also get some key players back healthy like left tackle Garett Bolles and running back Javonte Williams. I also am curious to see if Marvin Mims can be a big play threat as a rookie.

OT Preview: Do not expect Russ to turn into a 5,000-yard passer under Payton. He is not Drew Brees, but fortunately, Payton had some experience at starting other quarterbacks in his final years with the Saints, including Taysom Hill (if he counts as a real quarterback). One thing that concerns me is Jerry Jeudy’s injury, because he was by far the weapon Wilson played best with last year. They need to make sure he can stay healthy if this is going to work as the Broncos have a lot of good offenses to compete with for playoff spots this year.

4. Las Vegas Raiders (7-10)

365Scores Preview: The Raiders were comical in the way they would forget games are 60 minutes long last year. They set some records for blowing leads, including 5 losses after leading by double digits in the second half. In all, the Raiders blew 6 fourth-quarter leads to lead the NFL in 2022, and that does not include the Kansas City game where they gave up 4 touchdowns to Travis Kelce on 25 receiving yards in blowing a 17-point lead.

BMR Preview: I also looked at the impressive but polarizing career for Jimmy Garoppolo, who reunites with Josh McDaniels. I do not believe Garoppolo is as great as his stats say, but I also believe he cannot be a bum and luck into those numbers over this large of a sample size. I think he could be a better fit than Derek Carr was.

OT Preview: Speaking of Carr, it really shocked me that he threw 8 touchdown passes of 30-plus yards to Davante Adams, the same number Aaron Rodgers had to Davante in 8 seasons together. That play-action and running game can be special for this offense. Now if only the defense can find some help for Maxx Crosby and be more respectable this year. This team can absolutely win more games, but the schedule is going to make it harder to do better for the playoffs. Still, I think over 6.5 wins is one of the best bets this year.

NFC WEST

1. San Francisco 49ers (12-5)

365Scores Preview: Is Brock Purdy the new late-round wunderkind or is he damaged rookie goods like RG3? It usually is a great sign for career success when a rookie quarterback plays well, and Purdy certainly did that last year even if he got away with his share of dropped picks. But when injury comes into play like it did for RG3 and Greg Cook, that can ruin a career. Purdy has to prove he can overcome the elbow surgery, and that his last season was legitimate. This can go anywhere from him getting benched for Sam Darnold to winning MVP, but having the most uniquely talented set of skill players in a great system and a top defense should make the 49ers a division winner again.

BMR Preview: I am not concerned about defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans going to Houston and taking safety Jimmie Ward with him. This is still a ridiculously talented defense at all levels, and besides, the 49ers get 4 games with the Cardinals and Rams.

OT Preview: The 49ers may be a risky Super Bowl pick and I do feel like trusting the Eagles and Cowboys more, but it is hard to name any other team in the conference that should be better this year. It is a 3-horse race, and the 49ers will face both this regular season with a chance to get a No. 1 seed. Just have to hope this QB situation does not backfire in the worst way this year. The Garoppolo safety blanket is gone for Shanahan.

2. Seattle Seahawks (8-9)

365Scores Preview: Geno Smith’s career arc is very unique since getting punched by a teammate in 2015 basically derailed his true third season as a starter. He made the most of last year’s opportunity, but I’m still lukewarm on the Seahawks being legit. They were basically a .500 team that was fortunate to make two comebacks against the Rams (who did not have their best trio of players in either game), or else both teams would have finished 7-10. Seattle’s only big winning streak (4-0) was also something that included a sweep of the Cardinals and a win over the Giants. Just not impressed enough with this team to predict more this year, but I did take a fun look at old quarterbacks to break out and found most stay close in team record the following year, hence 8-9 for Seattle from me.

BMR Preview: The Seahawks have not had a top 10 defense since 2016. That would help them out, but I just don’t see it after bringing back Bobby Wagner and drafting a corner in the top 5. Personally, I think Jalen Carter would have been more interesting there, but I understand why Pete Carroll would be hesitant to get a guy who may not love the game like he should. But when you’re in your 70s, taking the best talent out there is also enticing.

OT Preview: I think the Seahawks drafted the right wide receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but he is hurt to start the year and should not be more than a WR3 in 2023 unless Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf gets hurt. With the way this team struggled to beat the 49ers last year, I’m just not sold they can leapfrog them this year.

3. Los Angeles Rams (4-13)

365Scores Preview: I can remember earlier this summer when I had the Rams going ahead of Seattle, then I took a closer look at the roster. What the hell is this team? It’s Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald, and 50 NPCs. Kupp even has a hamstring injury already and may miss Week 1. It makes sense that the Rams would have the worst season ever for a defending champion, but the fall from grace is still crazy to see.

BMR Preview: The Rams had 8 defenders play 700+ snaps last year and all but one of them is gone this year. I’ve never seen anything like that. On the bright side, the Rams have a 2024 first-round pick, and it may be awfully high.

OT Preview: The good news is the Cardinals are even worse. Or maybe that’s bad news, because if you’re going to have a terrible season, might as well swing for the fences and get that No. 1 pick.

4. Arizona Cardinals (2-15)

365Scores Preview: Is Arizona trying to tank, and what should the tank campaign name be? I like “Crumble for Caleb” a lot. But this team is going to be unwatchable this year. I did my best to inject some humor and insults in this preview for the team with easily the worst Super Bowl odds and lowest over/under win total (4.5, maybe down to 3.5) this year.

BMR Preview: Clearly, I have Arizona making a real run at that No. 1 pick, which is presumably USC quarterback Caleb Williams. Hell, they might even get the No. 2 pick since they own Houston’s pick for the Will Anderson trade. Maybe they can get Marvin Harrison Jr. too.

OT Preview: But you may be surprised to know that just 2-of-22 teams in the 32-team era had the worst preseason win total and actually earned the No. 1 pick. That was the 2016 Browns (drafted Myles Garrett) and 2020 Jaguars (drafted Trevor Lawrence). But when you are releasing Colt McCoy and deciding between Joshua Dobbs and rookie Clayton Tune before Week 1, you are not taking this seriously. For the record, I bashed the Jonathan Gannon signing when it happened as I don’t think he’s a good coordinator. His record will likely back up he’s a lousy coach this year, but he could luck into quite a prospect in Williams next year.

AFC EAST

1. Buffalo Bills (12-5)

365Scores Preview: One of my earliest previews in July, I detail the emotional rollercoaster the Bills went on last year as their season as Super Bowl favorites crashed with their worst loss in a season and a half (27-10 to Cincy). Maybe it was one bad game, but if that is how their matchups with the Bengals are going to go, they have a long way to improve with that one. At least they know how to beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead.

BMR Preview: But I really do believe people are overlooking how the Damar Hamlin situation drained this team, and Von Miller’s injury was too much to overcome as they lacked a pass rush after he was lost. This team could have a redemption story this year. It happens often that teams shake off devastating playoff losses and win a Super Bowl the next year. I also think the early schedule for the Jets is brutal, so I still like Buffalo to win the AFC East despite many wanting to pick this team to fall off. I refuse to do it yet, and I did like the draft pick of Dalton Kincaid. Maybe when the big matchups come late in the year, the defense can have guys like Von and Tre’Davious White healthy unlike the last two seasons. Remember, you don’t always win with your best team. You win with the one that had the best circumstances.

2. New York Jets (12-5)

365Scores Preview: This should be fun. The team with the first 4,000-yard passer in 1967 seeks a second in 2023 with the quarterback who last made the Super Bowl in 2010. But that 12-season stretch was also the last time the Jets were in the playoffs, so why not party like it’s 2010 again? Giving Aaron Rodgers his best defense since maybe 2010 would be a huge deal, and this team clearly just needed a solid quarterback last year to make the playoffs. They ended the year on a 6-game slide after starting 7-4.

BMR Preview: This should be the year the Jets end the 14-game losing streak against New England. But the schedule is fascinating here as the Jets have a brutal run in the first 6 games before the bye. It would not be shocking if they are 2-4 and hearing it from the media, but I think you should just stay the course with this team. The schedule will ease up and they will play some of their best football down the stretch going into the playoffs where anything can happen.

OT Preview: There is no doubt a lot of expectations on Rodgers, but I think he can win MVP as this team elevating its passing game will largely be credited to him. He has some receivers from Green Bay along for the ride, he has his embattled coordinator (Nathaniel Hackett) who was a bum in Denver, but he might be one of those guys who is good at being just a coordinator. This should help the process, but Rodgers will have to overcome that early schedule and hang in there. I don’t love the Super Bowl chances this year as I think the other teams have an experience edge and I’m still not sure what to make of Robert Saleh. But for a change, the Jets should have a passing game and be an interesting watch.

365Scores Preview: The rookie year for Mike McDaniel in Miami was a success as he made the playoffs and got Tyreek Hill to help Tua Tagovailoa have a breakout season where he led the NFL in many passing efficiency categories. Unfortunately, multiple concussions and Miami’s early mismanagement of them ended his season before the playoffs. Tua could be a darkhorse MVP candidate if he stays healthy this year.

3. Miami Dolphins (9-8)

BMR Preview: It was a weird season with the Dolphins alternating between winning and losing streaks of 3 and 5 games. Some of that was tied to Tua’s health, but he also lost his last four starts when the competition got tougher.

OT Preview: While McDaniel comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, this team looks closer to the Sean McVay and Rams way of doing things. They are very top-heavy on talent at wideout and pass rusher, but not much depth to speak of. If a hamstring goes for Hill or Waddle, look out as they did not do much to find a third receiving weapon. The Jalen Ramsey injury is also a bummer, but I did like the hiring of Vic Fangio at DC. Still, something is missing for me with this team to think they improve on last year’s record.

4. New England Patriots (6-11)

365Scores Preview: Well, at least Matt Patricia won’t be calling plays this year. But I really do think this is the year the Patriots fall to last in the AFC East after the quarterback imbalance has completely swung the other way for them. The last straw was Rodgers joining the Jets, because Belichick has used the Jets for two wins every year since 2016. That ends this year, and the Patriots are going to face a ton of better quarterbacks than Mac Jones unless they resort to poisoning the opponent.

BMR Preview: If you look at New England’s 8 wins last year, the best quarterback they beat was Jared Goff (Lions). Everyone else was a backup, benched, or injured starter. They won’t have that luxury this year, and they have been getting owned by Tua and Allen in the division lately. They also have to play Hurts, Mahomes, Herbert, etc.

OT Preview: The Patriots did not upgrade the weapons enough for Jones to make me think this offense is going to be adequate enough to deal with this schedule. You know the defense will be adequate and keep the team in games, but their edge in close games is gone. This is now the team that does stupid shit like a lateral at midfield back to the quarterback or fumbling inside the 5-yard line against the Bengals on a first down.

You had a great run, but it’s over, Bill.

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)

365Scores Preview: This was my first preview out of 95 this summer. The Eagles are still the better team than the Cowboys and 49ers in my view, but the reason I still have trust issues is they just never beat good quarterbacks on good teams. They got by last year beating up on Cooper Rush, or beating teams that finished with winning records that they played when they were starting 2-6. Then Brock Purdy saw his elbow explode after 6 snaps in the title game. It was a lot of fortunate schedule quirks, and I want to see this team beat the good quarterbacks. Hurts is 0-7 against QBs who rank in the top 15 in QBR on a team that wins 10-plus games.

BMR Preview: The NFC East has not had a repeat champion since the 2001-04 Eagles. Every other division has had at least two teams repeat in that time. But I really think the Eagles can get it done this year. I’m not worried about losing the two coordinators, and they still have one of the most talented, balanced rosters.

OT Preview: But I must say adding Jalen Carter to that pass rush is nasty work. The rich get richer. He should be able to learn from Fletcher Cox and I have several bets on him winning Defensive Rookie of the Year. This defense could actually be better this year as I think Gannon’s scheme held them back. But I also have some concerns with Jalen Hurts becoming the first quarterback to run the ball 200 times in a season (playoffs included). They need to dial that back if they don’t want a repeat of last year as he may not return in time from injury for the playoffs.

Keep the quarterback sneak though, even if I hate watching it. That’s just deadly effective for what was already the most unstoppable play from scrimmage in the game.

2. Dallas Cowboys (12-5)

365Scores Preview: The Cowboys are no worse than third in the NFC behind the 49ers and Eagles. But the Cowboys were the only NFC team to rank in the top 5 in scoring on both sides of the ball. Once Dak Prescott came back from injury, he led the team to a 9-game streak of scoring 27-plus points, the longest streak in franchise history. But the way this team melts down in losses against the Bucs, Commanders, and the 49ers in the playoffs is why it is hard to get behind them to win it all for a change.

BMR Preview: Prescott was Mr. Self Destruct last year with the picks, but a lot of them were tipped balls and bad luck. I think the offense is a great candidate for positive regression and his interception rate will drop back to normally low levels. That does not concern me. I also really like the addition of Brandin Cooks as a speedy deep threat, and Michael Gallup should look better another year removed from serious injury. Tony Pollard is also an exciting back, and so may his new backup be in Deuce Vaughn. Ezekiel Elliott is finally out of their way. I also am content with Brian Schottenheimer taking over at OC for Kellen Moore. Russell Wilson had some of his best years in Seattle with him calling the plays. This might be the best offensive core Schotty has ever coached too.

OT Preview: The defense did the unthinkable and led the league in takeaways for the 2nd year in a row. I do not see it happening for a third, but this is one of the best defenses in the league and that was not the unit that held them back in the playoff loss to the 49ers. Speaking of which, the 49ers host Dallas in Week 5 in prime time. I think this is big since Dallas had to play the 49ers, a very talented and well-coached team, in the playoffs the last two years with no experience from the regular season to learn from. Give them a taste of the matchup this year, and maybe this time they will figure it out for January should there be another playoff rematch.

3. Washington Commanders (7-10)

365Scores Preview: The truth is if there was any team I warmed up to dramatically since late July, and the preseason results were partially responsible, it would be Washington. I think 7-10 might even be a low estimate, but I am intrigued by Sam Howell, and I think this just might work out now. I’m definitely way more optimistic now than I was in this preview here. Don’t like seeing Terry McLaurin getting injured in the preseason though. Figures, he was the only player I put in a prop bet for in best bets.

BMR Preview: But Eric Bieniemy can definitely make this opportunity boost him to a head coaching job if he makes Howell, one of the most unheralded opening-day starters in years, into a legit quarterback.

OT Preview: The defense has a ton of home-grown talent and they did come up with two of the best upsets last year in making the Eagles and Cowboys cough up the ball repeatedly.

4. New York Giants (6-11)

365Scores Preview: It was a tale of two seasons for the Giants. At 6-1, they were winning almost every close game they lost in Daniel Jones’ first 3 seasons. But as the season wore on, that dried up unless they were playing Minnesota, the only NFC playoff team they were really capable of beating. I’m not a fan of the wide receiver moves for this team as they just signed a bunch of slot guys and traded for tight end Darren Waller, which would have been more exciting two years ago.

BMR Preview: The main reason I have the Giants swapped with Washington is that it was those matchups last year that dictated the Giants going to the playoffs while the Commanders were out at 8-8-1. I also have more faith in Sam Howell than I do Wentz. I just am not sure Daniel Jones showed enough to warrant the contract extension, and I’m not convinced Brian Daboll is going to get much more out of him this year.

OT Preview: The defense is also likely to continue producing volatile results as they blitz more than any unit in the league. I agree with Daboll winning Coach of the Year last year, but I see the team that finished 3-6-1 as being closer to the real Giants than the team that was 6-1.

AFC SOUTH

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7)

365Scores Preview: This was another preview I was fond of doing, because I looked at how the Jaguars made their turnaround last year, and how it was a huge departure for a team that had lost 41 straight games when allowing more than 20 points. The fact that they trailed by 17+ points a handful of times after Week 9, including getting pumped 27-goose at home to start the playoff campaign, and needed a defensive fumble return TD off a third-string QB signed in December to even make the playoffs…it all worries me about just how good this team, which did not add much outside of getting Calvin Ridley off the suspension list, will be in 2023.

BMR Preview: But by playing in the AFC South, that’s 4 games against rookie coaches and quarterbacks from Indy and Houston. I think the division alone can give this team half their wins this year. It will be interesting to see if Doug Pederson can work some Year 2 magic for Trevor Lawrence like he did with Carson Wentz in 2017.

OT Preview: But I’m still skeptical of how well this team will fare against the elite teams. You can’t keep relying on 17-point comebacks, something they did 3 times in their last 11 games after doing so once in the franchise’s first 455 games. But it is cool to see the Jaguars be relevant again, and they are aiming for back-to-back playoffs for the first time since 1996-99.

2. Tennessee Titans (8-9)

365Scores Preview: It was a true tale of two seasons as the Titans went from 7-3 to 0-7 to miss the playoffs. I’ll still never understand why the team traded A.J. Brown, a move that hampered the passing game dramatically last year. But with 4 games against the Texans and Colts, a healthy Ryan Tannehill, the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, and some skill players entering Year 2, the Titans can certainly get close to .500 again as Mike Vrabel seems to do his best work as an underdog.

BMR Preview: But I really believe this team blew its window with that playoff loss to Cincinnati as the No. 1 seed in 2021. The Titans are old news with one of the oldest quarterbacks, RB1, and WR1 trios in the league. Things would have to go really poor this year to see Will Levis start games, but Tannehill’s injury history also points to it being a possibility. But if that happens, they might be looking for a new coach in 2024 too.

OT Preview: The defense should keep the team in most games as they get Harold Landry back as their best pass rusher. I believe 8-9 is the perfect record for a team stuck in purgatory, just waiting to move on to the next era of Titans football.

3. Houston Texans (4-13)

365Scores Preview: I look at the recent run on first-time coaches who were defensive specialists, but it is not pretty when Sean McDermott, Dan Quinn, and Mike Vrabel are the only success stories so far. However, I do like the DeMeco Ryans hiring because he was not a one-year wonder as coordinator in San Francisco, he’s not a dinosaur like Lovie Smith was last year, and we know Houston is near and dear to his heart being a former player.

BMR Preview: But I also like Ryans because he brought Bobby Slowik with him from San Francisco where he has learned from Kyle Shanahan for many years. He should be able to bring those concepts with him to help C.J. Stroud, who I did not like as much as Bryce Young in the draft, but we’ll see how it goes. The Texans’ lack of weapons is concerning.

OT Preview: At least the team has a plan and can start to build an identity again after two worthless years in the wake of Deshaun Watson’s shame. I did not love the trade for Will Anderson, but I at least understand it. They just better hope he is a lot closer to J.J. Watt than Jadeveon Clowney. Even a repeat of Mario Williams would be a bit disappointing given what they gave up for that pick. But if he is an annual DPOY candidate, then you can’t hate on the move to get the best edge rusher in the draft.

4. Indianapolis Colts (4-13)

365Scores Preview: I spent an abnormal amount of time recapping a 4-win team’s season, which I broke up into five acts as the tragicomedy of the year in 2022. Only Frank Reich got a happy ending by the time it was over.

BMR Preview: Like Houston, I like the hiring of Shane Steichen and the selection of Anthony Richardson. I just think it won’t produce good results in Year 1 because this team has a lot of holes, and the Jonathan Taylor situation is not helping matters.

OT Preview: The Colts really need to be a “run the ball and play good defense” team this year, which is so out of whack with the usual Indy philosophy. But that would suit Richardson best right now. I’m just not sure an offense with Michael Pittman and some backup running backs can do much. I also liked Jelani Woods at tight end in Year 2 but see he is on short-term IR. Bummer. Looks like another long year in Indy that probably won’t be as dramatic or funny as last year’s Jeff Saturday adventure.

NFC SOUTH

1. New Orleans Saints (12-5)

365Scores Preview: One of the best rivalries in the NFL this season should be me against Saints/Derek Carr fans on Twitter. I will go well into January asking who did this team beat, because the schedule is the No. 1 factor in me picking the Saints to go 12-5 this year.

BMR Preview: But given Derek Carr’s final pass with the Raiders was a game-ending interception against the Steelers, I already won that one, didn’t I? Nine years and no playoff wins. Now he gets the best situation of his career where he should be the best quarterback in his division, the schedule is a cakewalk, and he should have his best defense ever.

OT Preview: You might say 12 wins is generous, but the Vikings just won 13 games with a negative scoring differential thanks to comeback wins. What does Carr actually do well? He gets a lot of game-winning drives, and I expect him to do that at least four times this year despite not playing that significantly better. It’s just the situation around him has never been better. However, expect this to be a one-year thing as I predict the division will be tougher in 2024. They need to take advantage of the schedule this year.

2. Atlanta Falcons (9-8)

365Scores Preview: The easy schedule was my talking point for both the Saints and Falcons. Atlanta will play 14 games against the NFC South, NFC North, and AFC South – possibly the worst divisions in the NFL. Desmond Ridder is a true wild card this year, but I can’t deny Bijan Robinson going to the most run-heavy offense makes sense even if I hated the positional value at No. 8. They will use him like he needs to be used. Will they remember they have Kyle Pitts too? We’ll see, but he and Ridder never played together last year because of injury. Drake London also looks like a hit already.

BMR Preview: The defense is a ragtag bunch of free agents, but the schedule will help them immensely too. I do not see many quarterbacks who can hang 30 points on this team, and that already rarely happened last year because Atlanta games had very few possessions due to the running attempts and 3rd-down conversions.

OT Preview: I believe in Arthur Smith enough after two 7-10 seasons to take advantage of this easy schedule, get more out of Ridder than he could in a second try with Mariota, and the Falcons will end this 5-year losing slide. But they’re not a serious contender for the Super Bowl yet.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-11)

365Scores Preview: The Buccaneers will have a quarterback this year who is not going to get rid of the ball before any receiver can get downfield because he is done getting hit in his career. But will Baker Mayfield make the easy throws to sustain drives? Will he pull off the game-winning drives he has usually sucked at after the defense keeps many games close and winnable for him? I’m not sold there.

BMR Preview: But imagine if Baker did play great this year. Dave Canales is a name to keep an eye out on as the team’s new offensive coordinator. He was Geno Smith’s quarterbacks coach last year and helped him to a career year. If he did the same with Baker in Tampa, he could be a head coach by 2025.

OT Preview: The schedule is a huge bonus for the NFC South teams except for Tampa Bay. By virtue of playing a first-place schedule, the Bucs have to play the Bills, 49ers, and Eagles – three elite teams the Saints, Falcons, and Panthers do not have to play. That is why I have them at 6-11, but still ahead of Carolina based on head-to-head results.

4. Carolina Panthers (6-11)

365Scores Preview: This preview takes an interesting look at the best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history. It does not seem likely that Bryce Young will join this list, because he lacks a lot of the advantages those quarterbacks had after the Panthers traded D.J. Moore to Chicago to help get him.

BMR Preview: Also, the Panthers may not be a traditional No. 1 draft pick team based on record, but it is a fact that Andrew Luck is the only quarterback drafted No. 1 in the Super Bowl era to win more than 7 games as a rookie.

OT Preview: But I like Young the most in this rookie quarterback class, because I think he will be closer to young Russell Wilson (a pass-first quarterback who can use his mobility to improvise) than someone like Justin Fields (all about his legs). I also liked the hiring of Frank Reich, who finally gets to craft a young quarterback instead of a revolving door of veterans on their last legs. But for the love of God, can the Panthers win a close game? They were 0-16 at game-winning drive opportunities under Matt Rhule, and the Panthers have lost 50 straight games when trailing in the fourth quarter going back to 2018.

AFC NORTH

1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4)

365Scores Preview: I have not always been the most supportive voice for Lamar Jackson, but I am riding with the Ravens to make this their redemption season. After so many injuries and one-score losses the last two years, I see the Ravens putting it together for their best overall season in the Jackson era. No, the record and statistics may not look as strong as they did in 2019 when they blew it in the first playoff game, but I’m talking about a team that can actually step up and beat the AFC elites (Chiefs, Bengals, Bills) in big games in the regular season and postseason.

BMR Preview: People either forget or didn’t know that the Ravens were leading the AFC North in December the last two years when Jackson was injured and lost for the season. With his new contract, new offensive coordinator, and the best supporting cast of weapons he’s ever had, I like Jackson as an MVP candidate and for the Ravens to win the AFC North back from the Bengals.

OT Preview: The defense may not be as elite as it used to be, but I trust John Harbaugh’s coaching, Justin Tucker is the greatest to ever do it, and I’m going to bet on Jackson to stay healthy this time and lead this team to the top seed as you can see I did not pick any other AFC team to do better than 12-5.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)

365Scores Preview: No one has won the AFC North three years in a row since 2002, and like I just said with the Ravens, it was Baltimore who led the division in December the last two years when Jackson was injured. Now it is Joe Burrow with the injury concern coming into this season, though he is expected to start Week 1. A big game with the Ravens awaits already in Week 2.

BMR Preview: I think this team is still right in the mix in the playoffs, and I like how they looked against Buffalo last year in 4.5 quarters. That may be a good matchup for them. They play the Chiefs better than just about anyone. They are a tough out, but I’m not sold that adding Orlando Brown Jr. is the solution to making Burrow take the next step and bring those sack numbers down. Burrow is 21-1 when he doesn’t take 5 sacks since mid-2021. He is 1-8 when taking 5+ sacks.

OT Preview: The Bengals also lost some key starters in the secondary and I do not like the replacements they added. First-round pick DE Myles Murphy is also unlikely to make a big impact off the bench this year.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

365Scores Preview: If Washington was the NFC team that changed my mind a bit during the preseason, the Steelers are that team in the AFC after the starting offense went 5-for-5 in scoring touchdowns in August. Now watch them be a bottom 3 scoring team in September, because the NFL is like that sometimes. But this preview looks at the chances of Kenny Pickett overcoming his coaching to have a breakout 2nd season.

BMR Preview: The history is not great for Pickett, but the offensive core is so young and talented that it may be able to overcome Matt Canada, the returning OC who has gone all 35 games of his career without once getting this offense to 400 yards in any game. But George Pickens could be ready to make a huge leap too in Year 2, and the offense was elite on third down after the bye last year.

OT Preview: The schedule is not so front-loaded brutal like it was last year when the Steelers started 2-6. But with Pickett and Pickens no longer rookies, T.J. Watt back healthy, and Mike Tomlin always finding a way to not have a losing season, I think the Steelers improve enough in a deep division to get to 10 wins. Is that enough for the playoffs? Scroll down.

4. Cleveland Browns (8-9)

365Scores Preview: I look at how Deshaun Watson underperformed last year and how he is no longer a top 8 quarterback in the AFC, which is absolutely what the Browns need him to be if they are going to go over 9.5 wins. Frankly, I think this is one of the easiest unders this year. The division is tough, and Cleveland has finished behind Pittsburgh in every season since 1990. That’s to say nothing about the Super Bowl contenders in Baltimore and Cincinnati.

BMR Preview: The Browns were 1-1 against each division rival last year, but they also beat the Steelers without Kenny Pickett and T.J. Watt, beat the Bengals without Ja’Marr Chase, and beat the Ravens without Lamar Jackson. Is that going to happen again for them? Doubtful.

OT Preview: In this one I give a shot out to how Jacoby Brissett played the best ball of his career last year in a tough situation, knowing he was keeping the seat warm for someone like Watson. I also acknowledge some of the reasons the Browns performed worse in Watson’s starts, including the defenses faced and the weather. But there is no excuse for him in 2023 to not play better. He was every bit as bad as Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson were on their new teams last year.

NFC NORTH

1. Detroit Lions (9-8)

365Scores Preview: The Lions are outright favorites in a division for the first time since 1982. It did not go well then, nor did it go well in 1992 when they were co-favorites with Chicago. But for all the talk I made about not liking this team to improve much, I still ended up with 9-8 and a division title this time. The rest of the division has a lot of uncertainty to it. But this preview has an interesting study on teams who start 1-6 and get to 8-9 wins and how they did the following year. A poor start followed by a hot finish is no guarantee of success the next year.

BMR Preview: Another theme in my Detroit previews was looking at their draft class and how they may not have gotten the best positional value. A lot of the moves should be marginal upgrades, especially at running back where D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams had big production last year.

OT Preview: You know what could make the defense much better? Aidan Hutchinson improving to DPOY-caliber play in his second season. I like him as a dark horse for that award (+3000 odds).

2. Minnesota Vikings (8-9)

365Scores Preview: Regression is always the buzzword with the Vikings this year after going 11-0 in close games with 8 4QC/GWD (tied NFL record). Writing previews for this team was fun because they really did have one of the most entertaining seasons in NFL history last year. But 13-4 was a mirage and they will regress in close games this year to fall back to Kirk Cousins’ typical .500 range.

BMR Preview: But I was worried that I may have been leaning too hard on the regression bet as my original picks had the Vikings at 6-11 before I beefed it up to 8-9. When I saw the Vikings playing a team that lost a lot of close games last year (Raiders, Broncos come to mind), I immediately turned to regression and gave the Vikings a loss this year. It’s not like the offense will suddenly suck even if they lost Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen. They still have Justin Jefferson and I like the pick of Jordan Addison. Just get someone in his head to not go speeding at night unless he wants to be the next Henry Ruggs. But Cousins is one of the few NFC quarterbacks who can say he is a proven passer that can stay healthy for a full season. That is an advantage for this team.

OT Preview: But the defense let go of so many veterans that Brian Flores is going to see his bend-but-don’t-break style of defense break often this year. But can 8-9 still be enough for the playoffs in a weak, top-heavy conference like this NFC? Scroll down.

3. Green Bay Packers (8-9)

365Scores Preview: I have a table in here that shows how hard it is to replace a legendary quarterback as even Aaron Rodgers was 6-10 (with a bunch of close losses in 2008) in his first year as a starter. But I trust Matt LaFleur to make this work to get at least the same record as last year when Rodgers was at his worst with the broken thumb. I’m intrigued by Love and thought he looked good in the preseason, if that ever matters.

BMR Preview: The Packers have a ton of young skill players around Love, so they are going to grow together if this works out. They can lean on the veteran backfield, and the defense was the best of a lousy bunch in this division last year.

OT Preview: I am not picking the Packers for the playoffs, but I think they have a shot since the division does not look like it will produce a 10-win team to me. If Love is legit, then this could be very interesting as the Lions already swept the Packers last year with Rodgers. It’s not like his absence is going to help Detroit get even better this year, so the division games should be crucial in figuring out who wins this open division.

Definitely going to be weird to think about the Packers without Favre or Rodgers.

4. Chicago Bears (7-10)

365Scores Preview: I may have done more research on the Bears than any other team this season in writing these previews. What I wanted to look at was how much a team can improve in one year when it ranked dead last in points allowed and in net yards per pass attempt on offense (Bears were 32nd at NY/A on defense too). Results are in here, but the Bears were only the 4th team to finish last in both since 1970. I also looked at teams who ranked in the bottom quarter of the league in both, and almost every team to improve made big changes the 2023 Bears did not.

BMR Preview: That’s the other issue I have with the Bears having a breakout year. They kept the same HC, OC, DC, and QB. The teams that really improved changed at least one of those and usually multiple. The Bears drafted a right tackle and added D.J. Moore and a pass rusher (Ngakoue) who will bail after this season. I look in this link at the fluky YAC plays Moore made this preseason that are unlikely to translate to the regular season. He is not a transformative talent like Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, or Stefon Diggs.

OT Preview: Thanks to Josh Allen, every quarterback who is not good for two years is going to have hope in Year 3, but I’m not sold on Fields as a legitimate passer. He is already one of the most dynamic rushing quarterbacks ever but passing wins games as the 2022 Bears proved with their 3-14 record. The Bears may still have the worst passer in the NFC North.

PLAYOFFS

Once I went through the schedule and made sure things added up to 272 wins, there were very few manual adjustments. I mostly just wanted to make sure Arizona had the worst record and no team was going to win more than 13 games this year.

AFC

  • 1. Baltimore (13-4)
  • 2. Buffalo (12-5)
  • 3. Kansas City (12-5)
  • 4. Jacksonville (10-7)
  • 5. NY Jets (12-5)
  • 6. Cincinnati (11-5)
  • 7. Pittsburgh (10-7)

Yes, I have Buffalo winning in Kansas City again in December, setting it up for the Chiefs to have to go on the road once they complete a sweep of the Bengals in the wild card round to even things at 3-3 (2-1 in the playoffs) in that rivalry. You got on the wrong horse, Orlando.

The Steelers have a good year but lose in Buffalo, the site of Kenny Pickett’s first start last year. The Jets stifle the Jaguars on the road, setting up a Jets-Ravens matchup in the divisional round while the Chiefs go to Buffalo for a change. While people think Rodgers vs. Mahomes is going to be the title game, it’s a surprise as the home teams hold court, setting up Bills at Ravens in the AFC Championship Game.

If you saw me tweeting stats like that at 3 AM, you should have expected this prediction. Lamar Jackson shakes off an MVP snub and the Ravens hang onto the lead this time, sending them back to their first Super Bowl since the 2012 season.

NFC

  • 1. Philadelphia (12-5)
  • 2. San Francisco (12-5)
  • 3. New Orleans (12-5)
  • 4. Detroit (9-8)
  • 5. Dallas (12-5)
  • 6. Atlanta (9-8)
  • 7. Minnesota (8-9)

Honestly, I’m not sure if the Vikings secured the right tie-breakers, but I’d rather see them get a shot in San Francisco instead of the Seahawks again. The 49ers should still win that game with ease.

Not only was the schedule a blessing for the Saints and Falcons in the regular season to get this far, but now they get another game against each other in the wild card. What the hell? I’m feeling generous, so I’ll give Derek Carr a playoff win. But he’ll get exposed by the San Francisco defense the following week.

After the Cowboys enter on a little losing slump, the Lions are feeling like they can get revenge for 2014. Their last playoff win in 1991 was also against Dallas, so maybe the stars are aligning. However, this is my retribution story for Dallas this season, and they win this game, setting up a rematch with the top-seeded Eagles.

We come to learn that things look pretty favorable in this rivalry to Dallas when Dak Prescott is at quarterback, and he outplays Hurts in an upset win on the road to finally end the streak of not getting to the NFC Championship Game since the 1995 season.

Always a bridesmaid, the 49ers again lose the title game for the third year in a row, and this time Dallas takes what it learned in the Week 5 matchup and puts it to good use in upsetting the 49ers and avenging the last two postseasons to return to the Super Bowl. The revisionist history on Mike McCarthy, who can become the first coach to win a Super Bowl with two teams (and winning all road playoff games), is absolutely spectacular for two weeks.

SUPER BOWL LVIII

I may be breaking some of my rules for Super Bowl picks here, but at least it is still a No. 1 seed against a team that was in the final 8 last year with an elite offense and defense. But the Ravens prevail and hang onto this lead after Prescott and McCarthy blow the final drive again, giving sports media enough material for the whole offseason.

Baltimore 28, Dallas 24 (Super Bowl MVP: Lamar Jackson)

This technically would break the Five-Year Rule where no team has won its first Super Bowl with a head coach starting the same quarterback for more than 5 years. This is Year 6 for Harbaugh and Jackson. But you know that rule is going to be broken someday, and why not let it be broken by a former MVP with his best offensive cast, a better offensive coordinator, and is it really 5 years when his last two seasons ended prematurely in December at a time the Ravens were in first place in the AFC North? This exception to the rule would at least be logical.

Now I expect a season where the results are anything but logical, so follow along with me as I cover my 13th season.

TL;DR Version: Last season was crazy. This season could be nuttier with so many new quarterbacks. But I’m going back to an old pick and taking the Ravens over Cowboys while still thinking Buffalo has a shot to redeem itself too. Oh, and since his name has not shown up once in 10,350 words, a happy retirement shoutout to one Tom Brady:

A season without Brady?

NFL Stat Oddity: Super Bowl LVII

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

After a season filled with low-scoring island games, the 2022 NFL season finished with a very good 38-35 Super Bowl that may have been one fewer flag away from an instant top five classic. Either way, Super Bowl LVII made history as the first Super Bowl where both teams scored at least 35 points.

It also rewrote the standard again for what kind of teams we can expect to win a Super Bowl, and no surprise that is thanks to Patrick Mahomes, who went home with MVP honors after throwing three touchdowns and making very few mistakes.

  • It took 57 years, but Mahomes is the first quarterback to lead the league in passing yards and win the Super Bowl in the same season.
  • Mahomes is the first quarterback since Kurt Warner (1999 Rams) to win MVP, first-team All Pro, and Super Bowl MVP in the same season. MVPs were on an 0-9 Super Bowl run and first-team All-Pro quarterbacks were 0-8 before Mahomes’ win.
  • The Chiefs join the 2006 Colts and 2011 Giants as the only teams since 1989 (and likely ever) to win a Super Bowl with a defense ranked lower than 15th in points per drive allowed. The Chiefs were No. 21 this year and won this game despite allowing 35 points on 10 drives.
  • Mahomes won this Super Bowl with a cap hit of 17% this season – the previous high for a Super Bowl-winning quarterback was Steve Young (13.1%) on the 1994 49ers, the beginning of the cap era.
  • The 2022 Chiefs are just one of seven Super Bowl winners to have a minus-3 or worse turnover differential in the regular season. But they were plus-4 in the playoffs.
  • The 2022 Chiefs are the first defense to win a Super Bowl after allowing 30 touchdown passes in the regular season. They allowed 33, four more than any other defense this year.

But in winning 38-35, the Chiefs did it their way. Jalen Hurts is now 15-2 when he leads the Eagles to at least 27 points, and both losses are to Mahomes, a f’n unicorn who just solidified himself this weekend as a first-ballot Hall of Famer with two Super Bowl MVPs and two MVP awards in his first six seasons. The only other two quarterbacks to do that needed 11 (Tom Brady) or 12 (Joe Montana) seasons to achieve it.

For the fourth time in the last nine Super Bowls, we had a team come back to win after trailing by double digits in the second half. That happened zero times in the first 48 Super Bowls.

I’d call it your classic Chiefs comeback against the front-running Eagles, akin to Super Bowl LIV against the 49ers, but this game was actually quite different. But by and large, this was a Kansas City script with a couple plot twists along the way.

This season in Stat Oddity:

The Least Valuable Player: The Turf

Before we get into the recap, the worst part of the game was the field surface in Arizona. If they really spent so much time and money growing this grass, then it was a waste as players were slipping all night. It did not really affect the outcome, and ultimately the game still had 73 points, but it sure would have been nice to see a better playing surface for the biggest game of the year.

This stadium has hosted some great big games, and god knows the Cardinals aren’t using it much in January and February, so when they bring the Super Bowl back to Arizona, hopefully the field will be better than this.

The First Quarter: Early Fireworks

Right from the start this was looking like an explosive Super Bowl with both offenses scoring a touchdown with their go-to players getting it done with Jalen Hurts on the QB sneak and Travis Kelce on a well-designed 18-yard route.

But you did also see some big hits, which became common in this game too. There was a lot of quality play all around, but an offensive pass interference penalty short-circuited the Eagles’ second possession for the first punt of the night.

So much for Mahomes and Kelce not being healthy, because the duo hooked up for a quick 60 yards on two drives to start the game. Kelce had just 23 yards against the Eagles last year, but you could throw that result out the window in this one as he still found ways to get wide open early.

But the Eagles would do a better job after those first three catches, and they also did a good job of holding down most of the other receivers on the night. Just enough pressure on Mahomes nearly forced an interception on a third down, but the Chiefs settled for a 42-yard field goal instead of going for a fourth-and-3.

This was probably Andy Reid’s biggest mistake of the night as the Eagles have been the more aggressive team and probably would have gone for that fourth down. Harrison Butker hit the left upright with his kick as he can often do on lower-pressure plays, and there went a golden opportunity for Kansas City’s first lead as the game went into the second quarter tied 7-7.

The Second Quarter: Eagles Do Their Thing

Over four months ago I was pointing out how historic the 2022 Eagles were in the second quarter. But even when the team was 6-0, I thought it was odd how they dominated that one quarter so much while not being special in the other three.

At 8-0, the Eagles had scored 133 points in the second quarter, the most points any team has had in any quarter through eight games in NFL history. This is why the Eagles were the third team since the 1970 merger to not trail in its first eight games. But this was clearly not going to sustainable. Would it be fatal down the stretch in a tight game and when the Eagles faced a legitimate quarterback for a change?

By season’s end, the Eagles were +116 in the second quarter and just +17 in the other three quarters combined. I did not think that was a good formula for the Chiefs, who we know can come back with the best of them.

But the second quarter was both as good as it got for the Eagles and a costly one as one huge mistake would haunt them.

The Eagles started their favorite quarter with Hurts taking a chance deep to A.J. Brown, and what looked like it may lead to defensive pass interference actually just laid in perfectly to the receiver for a 45-yard touchdown bomb.

The Chiefs went three-and-out after JuJu Smith-Schuster was clearly interfered with on third-and-8, but there was no penalty for some reason. More on that later.

After Hurts converted a third-and-8 with a brilliant scramble move, he really looked like the ultimate dual threat who was having a great game in his first Super Bowl. But then came the moment where the Eagles may have blown this one. One thing the team really struggled with all night was running the ball with the trio of backs, who combined for just 17 carries for 45 yards. If you thought Miles Sanders sucked against the Chiefs last year with 7 carries for 13 yards, he only had 7 carries for 16 yards in this one.

But on a second-and-1, it was Kenneth Gainwell who was stopped short to bring up third-and-1. No worries, the team who has turned the quarterback sneak into an even bigger cheat code would pick it up with ease. But that doesn’t happen when you get penalized for a false start as the timing was off for the Eagles. Huge mistake. On third-and-medium, Hurts tried a quarterback draw, but he just lost the ball on an unforced error, and Nick Bolton was there for the 36-yard scoop and score to tie the game.

It is so hard to win a Super Bowl when your offense coughs up a turnover for a touchdown, and that is the third time this season the Eagles did that in a game they went on to lose. The other time they just had four turnovers against Dallas, but this ended up being the only turnover in the whole game.

I was curious to see how Hurts responded to that blunder, but he did a great job and used his legs well to convert a ballsy fourth-and-5 with a 28-yard run by slipping a tackle. He also got another fourth-down conversion by drawing the Chiefs offsides in the red zone. The drive fittingly ended with Hurts running in his second touchdown on a successful draw to take a 21-14 lead with 2:20 left.

This was the part of the game in Super Bowl LV where the Chiefs really blew it against Tampa Bay. They had to answer here but it was another bad drive with Mahomes scrambling on a third down and apparently aggravating his ankle injury. He looked to be grimacing in pain much worse than he did when he initially had the injury against Jacksonville, and it was much worse than the third quarter against the Bengals when he tweaked it.

Chad Henne was apparently warming up, and this just felt like the Eagles catching another break with an injured quarterback. The Chiefs had the ball for just 8:06 in the first half as the Eagles dominated with long drives while Kansas City really did not show a lot after that hot opening drive. That makes 16 points for the offense in the last six quarters of Super Bowl action.

Things were looking poor for the Chiefs after getting outscored 17-7 in the quarter, and it could have been much worse without Hurts’ unforced error. It also would be nice if DeVonta Smith can make a cleaner catch down the sideline after his 35-yard grab was overturned to incomplete after a lengthy review. I can understand why they overturned it, but I was still surprised that they thought the evidence was conclusive enough to overturn the call on the field of a 35-yard catch.

That was a big reversal as it led to only a field goal and 24-14 lead for the Eagles at halftime. Still, this was looking like a Philadelphia script with an injured Mahomes even if the pass rush in this game was minimized.

Rihanna > Beyonce, forever and always, but moving onto the second half.

The Third Quarter: Here Come the Chiefs

With a half-hour halftime and Mr. White in the house to inject Mahomes with some Crystal Blue Persuasion, the MVP was able to return to the game and still looked good. The run game was also looking good for the Chiefs again, and Mahomes even took a play himself 14 yards after it looked like the Eagles were surprised he could still move like that.

Two plays later, Isiah Pacheco was in the end zone for a touchdown, and we had a game again at 24-21.

On the ensuing drive, Bolton thought he had another fumble touchdown, but the refs got the call right of a bang-bang play and no catch, no fumble for Sanders and the Eagles. What ensued was another painfully long drive with some incredible completions from Hurts to Dallas Goedert, including a third-and-14 conversion that took forever to review, but they got the call right as it was a catch this time.

The quarterback sneak worked for another fourth-and-1 for the Eagles, and this 7:45 drive was threatening to put the Eagles back up 10, but the pass defense stepped up and made a stop. The Eagles had a couple fourth downs already converted, and I was surprised that Nick Sirianni did not go for a fourth-and-6 at the Kansas City 15, understanding how much more valuable a 10-point lead is instead of 6 vs. 3.

But the Eagles settled for the 33-yard field goal and a 27-21 lead despite taking half the quarter with that drive. You can say Sirianni coached a pretty good Super Bowl when his biggest mistake in three quarters was not going for a fourth-and-6.

But with the Chiefs driving towards midfield, you could see where this one was heading.

The Fourth Quarter: Chiefs Do It Again

This postseason has sucked ass for drama, but maybe we would get something good here as it was the 18th Super Bowl in the last 20 years to be within one score in the fourth quarter. This postseason’s only fourth-quarter lead change was Jaguars vs. Chargers, and that was on the final play of the game. We needed something more dramatic here, and we absolutely got it.

JuJu, who I loved back in Pittsburgh his first two years and not so much after, was huge on this drive as he had three straight catches to put the ball at the 9-yard line. Incredibly, Marquez Valdes-Scantling had one target and no catches in the game after being so good against the Bengals. Kadarius Toney also had no touches on offense, so the Chiefs were getting almost everything out of Kelce, JuJu, and the running game.

But on a third-and-3, the Eagles completely blew a coverage and Toney was left wide open, not unlike his first NFL touchdown with the Chiefs against Jacksonville earlier this season. Andy Reid did it again. The Chiefs made the extra point to go up 28-27 and – STOP THE COUNT – they had their first lead and a lead for the 101st time in the last 102 games.

It also meant the 2022 Chiefs are the first team to have a fourth-quarter lead in 20 games in one season. But would they hang onto it to join the 1984 49ers and 2013 Seahawks as the only teams to do it in at least 19 games and win the Super Bowl? That is exclusive company for sure.

With the Eagles unable to run, it was going to be on Hurts’ shoulders, and he does not have the track record yet in these situations. Sure enough, the Eagles went three-and-out and this thing was going all Kansas City’s way. Toney returned the ensuing punt, after a little mix-up at the beginning, for 65 yards, nearly housing it, which likely would have earned him the MVP honors for this game. But his impact was felt as it was the longest punt return in Super Bowl history.

Not bad for a Kansas City team that had its longest punt return of the season against the Bengals (by Skyy Moore) to set up their game-winning drive last game out. Now they more than doubled that with this one by Toney. Speaking of Moore, he finished off this drive with yet another blown coverage by the Eagles as he was left all alone for a 4-yard touchdown. Way too easy.

Should the Chiefs have gone for two at 9:22 left? I think it was a little early to get the full benefit of that one, but I fully understand the argument by doing it. Still, it was 35-27 and this is out of the Eagles’ comfort zone.

However, when the QB sneak has been unstoppable all night, and the slants to Brown are open all night, the Eagles quickly moved the ball. Smith got wide open for a 45-yard bomb that if thrown a little better, he would have walked in for a touchdown. But on the next play, Hurts set a Super Bowl record with his third rushing touchdown at the quarterback position, giving him a record 18 for the season. He even finished the drive off with the game-tying two-point conversion as the league may have to interfere with the rule book to stop the Eagles’ dominance in short yardage. No more push sneaks in the near future? We’ll see.

But we were all tied up at 35 with 5:15 left. With the leaked script (read: a funny meme that some take too seriously) calling for a 37-34 win by the Eagles, you may have had it in the back of your mind that maybe the Chiefs screw this up after three straight touchdowns and the Eagles do win this one on a last-second field goal for a 38-35 win. The internet would go ape shit over that.

But no, Mahomes really is just different. He found Kelce for another catch that allowed him to hit his over (81 yards) by two yards, which cost me $700 in parlay wins, but no sour grapes here. Kelce now has nine straight games in the playoffs with over 75 receiving yards, three more than anybody else. Pacheco was able to convert the ensuing third-and-1 for a 10-yard gain.

Then came a definitive play. Mahomes scrambled right down the middle of the field for a 26-yard gain, looking pretty spry in the process and putting the Chiefs in field goal range. The rest of this drive was going to be very interesting strategy as the Eagles had three clock stoppages left, and the Chiefs could not afford to give them the ball back in a 38-35 game with nearly two full minutes left. Not after how easy the Eagles scored on the last drive.

The Chiefs even screwed this up with conservative play. A screen to JuJu gained nothing and brought up third-and-8. Mahomes just kind of lobbed one towards the end zone for JuJu on third down, which would have saved the Eagles’ last timeout, but there came the flag. Defensive holding on James Bradberry. Automatic first down.

I get why they called it, but I have to agree with FOX’s Greg Olsen. That is a very soft call on a night where the refs were swallowing the whistle. Bradberry tugged on the jersey, but the throw was also way off from the receiver, and I don’t think it was restrictive enough to say it drastically altered the play for the Chiefs. They got bailed out of a bad sequence with that call, and now the game was going to have a shit ending because the Chiefs were just going to set up the field goal.

For all the talk about referee Carl Cheffers screwing the Chiefs over in the past, his crew called just 3 penalties for 14 yards on the Chiefs in this game. He had gone 12 straight games calling at least 92 yards worth of penalties on both teams in Kansas City games, and 12 straight where the Chiefs had over 47.5 penalty yards.

So this was a surprise, and worse, there were just three penalties in the game on post-snap action, and they were all on the Eagles. The other six penalties were all your pre-snap things like false start, delay of game, neutral zone infraction, and offsides.

The refs tried to stay out of the story this week, but they had a huge impact on how this game would end. The part that pisses me off the most is how can they justify not calling the DPI on the Eagles on a JuJu coverage play on third down in the second quarter, but then they call this ticky tack crap? This inconsistency is what drives people nuts.

The Eagles did the right thing by offering the touchdown to the Chiefs, but Jerick McKinnon was wise to go down in bounds short of the end zone. Mahomes ended up taking two knees for minus-7 yards, meaning the Chiefs had 165 rushing yards before that happened. That is another big running day against the Eagles, who had their biggest statistical weakness at stopping the run this year (24th in yards per carry allowed), and last year the Chiefs ran for 200 yards on them for just the second time in the Mahomes era. This was another outstanding running day when you consider the Chiefs only had eight drives to score their 31 points. The Chiefs only had the ball for 24:13 and still scored 38 points. The only other time that has happened in the playoffs was when Andrew Luck led a 38-10 comeback against Reid’s 2013 Chiefs in a 45-44 win despite having the ball for 22:27.

For the anticlimactic finish, Butker just had to not go Blair Walsh and make a 27-yard field goal. He did it, and the Chiefs led 38-35 with 8 seconds left.

The Eagles returned the squib kick 11 yards before Gainwell gave himself up. Six seconds were eventually put back on the clock after it went down to 4 seconds, but either the Eagles didn’t seem to realize that, or they just blew the situation. There was no way Hurts could throw a Hail Mary over 65 yards with his shoulder injury, so the call should have been a quick pass to the sideline to get closer, or you do the laterals. Instead, Hurts held the ball and just threw a duck well short of the end zone and to no one in particular to end the game.

Conclusion

The Chiefs did it. Lesser defense filled with rookies, QB taking up 17% of the cap, injured skill players – none of it mattered. They also won this as a team as Mahomes’ 182 passing yards are tied for his fifth fewest in a game. He got the big run support, he got the fumble return touchdown, and he got the longest punt return in Super Bowl history. Mahomes was the right call to win Super Bowl MVP for making very few mistakes all night and still leading the offense to 31 points on eight drives with a missed field goal, but he still won this with the kind of team support we usually don’t see behind an MVP in a big game like this.

For the Eagles, it is a letdown for sure. I can say Hurts has still never beat a good quarterback on a good team in the NFL, but this game raised my respect for him. The fumble was an unfortunate blunder, but those happen. Mahomes just did it against the Bengals two weeks ago. Hurts was leading the MVP race most of the night as his run game and defense severely let him down as the 70-sack defense proved to be a paper tiger in the end. They were rarely tested this year, and when they faced the Chiefs, they folded with no sacks, very little pressure, and those blown coverages in the red zone are inexcusable.

Incredibly, the Eagles (70) and Chiefs (55) led the NFL in sacks this year with 125 between them, yet the only two in this game were on scramble plays where Hurts twice ran out of bounds for a small loss. Not even legitimate sacks in my view.

Mahomes got the ball off in 2.69 seconds on average according to Next Gen Stats. He is now 47-4 when he gets the ball out in under 2.9 seconds, so this game was above average for his release time even if it wasn’t quite the 2.32 seconds from last year’s meeting.

To close a week where we celebrated LeBron James breaking the NBA’s all-time scoring record that lasted almost 40 years, we just witnessed another great achievement for Mahomes in winning a Super Bowl with this team. It is not quite up to the level of LeBron knocking off the 73-9 Warriors, but to overcome all the negative perceptions of this team being too inexperienced, too pass happy, too imbalanced, and too injured, this is a big deal. I agree with Mahomes that this win means even more than 2019 did for him.

There is a long offseason ahead to be talking about their chances at ending the repeat drought, and Philadelphia’s chances at getting right back to this game as the NFC is not the toughest path right now.

But I am going to let this one marinate, go up to bed in a good mood as it’s always an easier offseason when the Super Bowl goes the way you wanted it to, and this is the end of my 12th season covering the NFL. I would say I look forward to the break from football, but I am scheduled for multiple XFL and NBA pieces this week, so it looks like I will be keeping busy for the next six months until we do it all over again for the 2023 NFL season.

Unless the aliens get past our space lasers.

NFL Super Bowl LVII Preview: Chiefs vs. Eagles

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I guess I got one more Super Bowl preview left in me. This is the only place where I post my final score prediction, but it has been a long two weeks to get to this point. I don’t know how many times I wrote about the oddities of 42-30 from last year’s meeting, or why I love Jalen Hurts as a touchdown scorer who might even do it on The Philly Special II, or why the referees (Carl Cheffers) are worth betting on for a flag fest.

Seriously, play those penalty props wherever you can find them (over in total yards, over in Kansas City penalty yards):

But unlike the last round where I ended up changing both my picks from Sunday to Saturday to the Chiefs and Eagles winning, I have not moved on this game.

The Eagles should win Super Bowl LVII, but the Chiefs certainly can pull it off.

This is already the third Super Bowl for Patrick Mahomes, the two-time MVP, and once again he goes up against the best pass defense he could from the NFC. Argue all you want about the 49ers being a better overall defense than the Eagles, but Mahomes already shredded that unit in Week 7.

I feel like I’m just going to keep recycling my old Mahomes Super Bowl content for these matchups.

Teams like the Eagles usually beat teams like the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, but what if Mahomes is just different? I wrote that from scratch, but after checking, yep, I pretty much wrote this already about Super Bowl LIV against the 49ers:

There are a lot of areas that favor the 49ers, and I think historically the 49ers are the type of team more likely to win this game than a team like the Chiefs. There are just more ways for the 49ers to win while practically every positive outcome for Kansas City involves Mahomes playing really well. 

Defense wins championships. Football teams are built in the trenches. Hyped QB matchups usually disappoint in the Super Bowl. That’s what I’d write about Chiefs vs. Eagles, and that’s also probably what I wrote about Chiefs vs. Buccaneers two years ago in Super Bowl LV. Oh look, I did.

Defense wins championships. Football games are decided in the trenches. Overhyped quarterback matchups tend to disappoint.

This is why I really do see Super Bowl LVII as a game that will either be like Chiefs-49ers where Mahomes and the offense figure it out in the 4Q to win or at least make it a 3-4 point game/tight finish, or it is going to be another blowout like Chiefs-Buccaneers where the pass rush is all over the QB on the injured ankle and the secondary is all over the injured receivers and shut downs Travis Kelce again.

Tale as old as time, right?

I’ve said this year that the Eagles are a team that’s dying to blow a 14 or 17-point lead in the playoffs after a dominant first half. Maybe the offense goes into turtle mode. Maybe the famed QB push sneak they’ve perfected gets stopped on a key fourth-and-1 to give the Chiefs new life. Maybe Jalen Hurts just has another off game against a young defense has has showed some improvement down the stretch.

The problem I have in this game is that it really takes Philadelphia uncharacteristically screwing up (like a turnover party) for the Chiefs to probably win. Otherwise, it is going to have to be a Mahomes masterclass, and I’m just not sure the offense is healthy or talented enough for him to do that in this matchup. The Eagles holding Kelce to 23 yards and holding everyone not named Tyreek Hill (186 yards) under 25 yards last year bugs me, because they’ve only gotten better in the pass rush and secondary with the additions of Haason Reddick and James Bradberry. Not to mention AJ. Brown on offense, who crushed the Chiefs in the last time the Chiefs were blown out (27-3 against the Titans last year).

In fact, there is so much history on the line in this game, and that’s why I want to get to my links because I wrote about it all (multiple times) the last two weeks. I’ll obviously recap what did and did not happen in the final Stat Oddity of the season tomorrow night, but let’s get to all the Super Bowl links I feel like sharing.

My Super Bowl Content:

Final Super Bowl LVII Prediction

I would love nothing more than a high-scoring, close Super Bowl that is an instant classic. Maybe it’s a 27-24 game (or 37-34 if you saw the leaked script, wink wink nudge nudge). Hopefully we get an 18th Super Bowl in the last 20 that is within one score in the fourth quarter.

But a lot of times these Super Bowls disappoint. Just look at two of the last four years when we had 13-3 and 31-9, two games where a team didn’t even score a touchdown. This 2022 NFL season has been filled with disappointing and low-scoring island games. The playoffs have been very disappointing as the only game with a fourth-quarter lead change was Chargers-Jaguars, and even that happened on the final snap so we couldn’t see how the Chargers would answer.

We really need something great to end this season on a high note, and I just don’t see it here. I think the Eagles revert to the team they were during the 8-0 start, meaning a dominant second quarter before they settle in the range of 21-to-29 points, and I’ll give the Chiefs just enough points to look respectable after last time’s embarrassment of scoring 9. But even in that game they dropped two touchdown opportunities.

I just keep coming back to the difference in the trenches, the difference in health at the skill players, the depth of the Eagles, and the way they aren’t afraid to go for fourth downs. I can’t even trust the Chiefs to convert a third-and-1 this year, and I sure don’t expect them to QB sneak it on fourth-and-1. Throw in the Carl Cheffers, Chiefs nemesis, angle at referee, and the Chiefs might be getting the short end of the stick there too.

I think it will look closer to Chiefs-49ers than Chiefs-Buccaneers, because Hurts doesn’t have that LOAT edge like Tom Brady. But if Chad Henne plays a significant role in this game, I’ll immediately change my mind on that. But I think it’s closer to Chiefs-49ers, and maybe this time Mahomes just doesn’t have Hill to convert a third-and-15 to. The roster weakness they covered up so well all year ultimately comes back to bite them in the Super Bowl against the No. 1 pass defense after too many injuries sustained in the last two playoff games. That’d be a damn shame, but it’s what I see happening in this one.

Forgive me if I rushed through this preview and it’s not as neatly organized and in depth like they used to be for the Super Bowl, but when you’re writing for four sites for 13 days about this one game, you just want to get to kickoff tomorrow at 6:30. I’m wiped out.

I cannot promise a good game tomorrow night, but I can promise a worthy recap to put it in its rightful place in history. But let’s hope I’m wrong I’m on this one.

Final: Eagles 27, Chiefs 20 (Super Bowl MVP: Haason Reddick)

NFL Stat Oddity: 2022 Conference Championship Games

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

After 283 games, the 2022 NFL season will still come down to a battle of No. 1 seeds with 16-3 records. The Philadelphia Eagles crushed the San Francisco 49ers 31-7, and the Kansas City Chiefs outlasted the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20.

I hate going against my gut – 49ers-Bengals was last Sunday’s initial pick – but working on these games all week changed my mind multiple times. By Saturday when I posted my final score predictions, I was able to nail the proper framing too.

Turnovers from the quarterback position did in the 49ers on the road, though I never imagined Josh Johnson to be part of the story. San Francisco finishes the season 0-5 with multiple turnovers and 15-0 without multiple turnovers.

The Chiefs exposed the backups on Cincinnati’s main weakness, the offensive line, and they made Joe Burrow pay with five sacks and shut down the run. Chris Jones stepped up with his fair pair of playoff sacks and even the special teams showed up late to help Patrick Mahomes and the offense on a day where health was in short supply.

What does it mean for Super Bowl 57?

  • We will not see the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to start a Super Bowl after Brock Purdy injured his elbow on just his third dropback of the game.
  • We will not see a team on a 13-game winning streak (49ers) take on a team on an 11-game winning streak (Bengals) as both teams lost on the road.
  • We will get the Andy Reid Bowl. The Kelce Bowl. The best quarterback vs. the No. 1 pass defense. Plenty of time to talk about that one the next two weeks.

So, let’s recap a Championship Sunday that had one massive disappointment and one great game that really cements Bengals-Chiefs as the top rivalry in the NFL right now.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Bengals at Chiefs: The Rivalry Is On After Chiefs Survive Thriller

After how terrible the NFC game was, you had to hope we were in store for something good here as these teams only seem to know how to play 3-point games against each other.

This was the least-efficient offensive game between the two, but the intensity and stakes were never higher. Last year, the Bengals were more of a curiosity than a confident team playing in the championship game. They proved they could come back again from a big deficit against these Chiefs. Then for the first time in this series in Week 13 this year, they showed they can control the game too and again close out the win by outplaying the Chiefs in the fourth quarter.

But this time, the Bengals outscored the Chiefs in the fourth quarter and still lost after Kansas City got the full team effort it needed to survive this one. While I still would have drafted wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase over offensive tackle Penei Sewell, a game like this does push the needle in favor of the line over receivers when it comes to building around a great quarterback talent.

The Bengals were unfortunately down three offensive line starters for the second week in a row, but unlike in snowy Buffalo without Von Miler, those chickens came home to roost again with Burrow taking five sacks and the running backs held to 13 carries for 41 yards. When your offense is one-dimensional and the protection is that bad, it gets harder to take advantage of the injuries the Chiefs suffered on defense, including their best corner (L’Jarius Sneed) four plays into the game and linebacker Willie Gay.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs came into the week with  Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain hogging all the injury coverage, then a Friday practice back injury for Travis Kelce popped up, and during the game, the Chiefs lost JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, and Mecole Hardman at wide receiver. The Chiefs only gave Mahomes 17 carries for 34 yards in run support in this game.

This team was running on fumes by the end of the game, but Mahomes and Kelce are just exceptional talents and they got just enough help from the rest of the team to pull this one out.

The First Quarter: Lucky It Wasn’t KC 14-0

The Chiefs came out hot with three sacks on the first two drives, including the first sack of Chris Jones’ postseason career. Somehow it took him 14 games to break through, but he picked the best time as I thought he might with the deficiencies the Bengals have. He even did it on a third down and made sure to hold Burrow up and not take him down to draw an egregious penalty.

On offense, things were looking like business as usual for Mahomes and Kelce, who showed no glaring signs of injury like you may have expected after last week and Kelce getting a game-time decision tag. Kelce even tried a designed lateral to Jerick McKinnon in the field of play in the first quarter. The ball was a little off, but McKinnon fortunately got on it for the recovery.

But missed opportunities were a big theme for the Chiefs early. Kadarius Toney could not come down with a 25-yard touchdown on a third down on the opening drive on a well-thrown ball, and the Chiefs wasted a challenge on that call.

Isiah Pacheco showed great effort on a 9-yard touchdown run that was wiped out by a holding penalty, and the Chiefs had to settle for a second field goal and 6-0 lead one play into the second quarter.

The Second Quarter: More Missed Opportunities for Chiefs

Maybe Burrow needed to warm up his LOAT magic on a very cold night, because he took his fourth sack on a ninth dropback and was facing third-and-14. But he converted to Tyler Boyd, who also had a 24-yard catch two plays later before eventually leaving the game with an injury too.

But that drive also ended with a field goal after Hayden Hurst was unable to come down with a nice pass in the end zone not much unlike the Chiefs’ miss with Toney on their first drive. It was 6-3.

The Chiefs ended up getting a fantastic, season-best game out of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, the mistake-prone No. 2 receiver from Green Bay. He had back-to-back plays gain 40 yards, and he finished with 116 yards and a touchdown.

But after Mahomes took a sack he may have normally escaped, it was fourth-and-1. Instead of throwing into the flat, Mahomes held the ball and was able to find Kelce in the end zone for a 14-yard shot to take a 13-3 lead.

Just when you think it may not be Cincy’s day, Burrow threw a pick and the Chiefs could have gone up 20-3 in the first half not much unlike last year’s game before losing it in overtime. But Mahomes threw three incompletions from the Cincinnati 39 and the Chiefs punted on a surprisingly weak three-and-out.

Burrow then tried to throw deep and it was intercepted on a deflection, but that was negated by a 20-yard penalty on the defense. Was this the beginning of the comeback? The Bengals got a two-minute drive going and Tee Higgins was the big target with a 21-yard catch down to the Kansas City 5 with the clock going under 20 seconds.

This is where I think Burrow screwed up. Instead of quickly lining up for a spike and saving a solid 10-11 seconds for two shots into the end zone, he went for the fade on first down, and it was a rushed, poor throw that had no shot of scoring. That wasted too much time, and Burrow’s next pass was also incomplete with 4 seconds left. They had to kick the field goal at that point and trail 13-6 at the half. I think either spike on first down or save the timeout he used earlier in the drive. Somewhere, a spike should have happened to give them more valid shots at the end zone.

But it was only 13-6 and you could sense some disappointment that the Chiefs were not up much more after all the opportunities in that half.

The Third Quarter: The Turning Point (Burrow Willed It)

So much for the Chiefs coming out hot to make up for the last offensive series. They went three-and-out again.

Like he did last year in the title game, Burrow, who led the game with 30 rushing yards, showed some good scrambling skills on a third down, then he finished the drive with a 27-yard touchdown pass to Tee Higgins to tie the game. Just a perfect throw to a spot where only the best No. 2 wideout in the game could get it over two defenders.

Now we had a game, and the game had a turning point. The Chiefs had gone 60 minutes of real time without a first down before Mahomes scrambled and found Hardman on a third-and-4 with a strike for 11 yards. But not only did Hardman get injured and left the game on this play, but Mahomes likely aggravated his ankle injury and was hobbling around after the play:

Ouch. Two plays later, Mahomes hung in the pocket with good protection and threw to an uncovered MVS, who charged ahead for 25 yards. MVS would later stretch the ball out on a third-down play to get just enough forward progress to convert and extend the drive after the Chiefs used their final challenge.

After Mahomes took a sack, it was third-and-10. He hung in there and delivered perhaps his best bullet of the night with a 19-yard touchdown strike to MVS in the end zone to give the Chiefs a 20-13 lead.

Mahomes gutted it out on that drive, but after the Bengals went three-and-out, the Chiefs blew another golden opportunity to go up two scores going into the final quarter.

First, you rarely ever seen an offensive lineman penalized for taunting, but that happened to Andrew Wylie, which wasted 15 of the 25 yards the Chiefs gained on another third-down conversion to MVS. But after reaching the Cincinnati 46, Mahomes had his worst moment of the game when he mishandled the ball on a throw, and it fell out of his hands for his first career playoff fumble lost:

This is when you really do start believing that Burrow has that Brady luck in him after seeing such an unforced error like that at midfield. Playoff hero Sam Hubbard got on the ball of course.

But the Bengals had a decision to make after the Chiefs massacred Samaje Perine on a third-down catch to end the quarter and bring up a fourth-and-6 at the Kansas City 41.

The Fourth Quarter: Frantic Finish

Hard to disagree with going for it here, and Burrow just threw it up for Chase, who came down with it in coverage for 35 yards, the only 30-yard play in the game. Just a great receiver and a confident quarterback. Perine finished the drive in the end zone and the game was tied at 20. It is the first fourth-quarter touchdown drive led by Burrow in a playoff game.

There was a noticeable decline in Mahomes’ quality of play after he aggravated the injury in the third quarter. He was not immobile or worthless, but he was not as accurate and under control like he was early in the game. I counted at least three plays in the second half where he really flirted with a backwards lateral or a pass that was barely forward as he tried to get the ball out to someone in the flat.

One of those plays was a pass to McKinnon, who dropped it upon quick review. That should have stopped the clock to bring up a third-and-9, but the clock was told to run at the ready for play, and a few seconds did erroneously come off before the third down was snapped, which was a short completion, I believe. The Chiefs were going to punt, then we were told the play was blown dead and never should have counted, which gave the Chiefs another crack at it.

I guess they technically got it fixed, but that was not a good look for the officials, and not a good break for the Bengals. Sure enough, a Mahomes sack was wiped out by defensive holding on Eli Apple of all people, and the Chiefs had a first down.

However, Mahomes was off again, and the drive stalled. Burrow had his chance to take the lead, but his third-and-3 arm punt was intercepted way down at the Kansas City 14 with 6:53 left. It effectively served as a 50-yard punt, though I think he could have got the first down with a safer, smarter play.

But for the third time in the game, the Chiefs drove into Cincinnati territory and came away with no points and not even a field goal attempt. The Bengals had an interesting choice after the Chiefs were penalized for holding. They could either put the Chiefs in third-and-22 and out of field-goal range, or decline the penalty to make it fourth-and-8 at the Cincinnati 37. I think Zac Taylor made the right call to decline as you hate to give Mahomes another shot on third down. From the 37, a 55-yard field goal would be tough in those cold conditions.

I think Reid surprised a lot of people when he chose the punt, which felt like the worst option, which is backed up by at least one set of data:

When you risk the potential of never seeing the ball again, I think a long field goal or letting Mahomes throw is viable. Tough decision, and it was not looking good after the way the defense was approaching the drive.

After Burrow was hit with a questionable intentional grounding penalty, it was third-and-16. You do not expect them to convert, but Hurst was left wide open for 23 yards after a blown coverage.

Was Burrow really about to do this on the road?

No, false alarm. The drive stalled after Burrow was sacked by Chris Jones on third-and-8 for the fifth sack of the game. That tends to be the magic number for playing Cincinnati.

In the last 31 games, Burrow is now 21-1 when he takes fewer than five sacks and 1-8 when he takes at least five sacks. There was a long gap between sack No. 4 and sack No. 5, but Jones made the biggest play when it was needed the most.

The defense did its part. Then it was the special teams’ turn. After an underwhelming rookie season for Skyy Moore with some big fumbles on returns, he almost doubled his longest punt return of the season with a 29-yard return to set up Mahomes at his own 47 with 30 seconds and one timeout left. It was the longest punt return of the season for the Chiefs, so good timing there.

We know Mahomes can set up a field goal in record time, but this drive was not going great, and you had to start thinking about seeing the new overtime rules in effect. But on a third-and-4, Mahomes scrambled the best he could and was able to get out of bounds after the marker for a first down. Unfortunately for the Bengals, Joseph Ossai, a second-year linebacker, let his instincts take over and he pushed Mahomes while he was clearly out of bounds and that resulted in a 15-yard flag.

It was not a smart play, but I don’t think I can crucify the player for this one. These quarterbacks are getting tricky with the way they slide down late or decide to stay in bounds sometimes and get more yards. But that was definitely a killer as it made the field goal 45 yards instead of 60 if they would even try it from that far. There also would have been a little time to get closer with a fresh set of downs, but the Chiefs were out of timeouts, so play calls would be very limited there. Just a massive penalty, and probably a gift.

I keep waiting for Harrison Butker to screw the Chiefs in a big game since he misses enough makeable kicks in the regular season to think he might be untrustworthy, but he keeps getting the job done in the playoffs. He was good from 45 yards and the Chiefs led 23-20 with 3 seconds left. That was only enough time for the Bengals to try a lateral play on the kick return that never went anywhere.

Three of the NFL’s last four drives in the final 40 seconds of a playoff game to win it or force overtime with a field goal have been led by Mahomes with Butker kicking a field goal:

In every sense of the word, the Chiefs survived this game, which is what they were going to have to do with the health situation this week. Now they hopefully can get some good rest and be fresher for the Super Bowl in two weeks, because the Eagles are going to be a difficult opponent.

As for the Bengals, that is now all seven playoff games in the Burrow era ending with the Bengals scoring 19-to-27 points and not allowing more than 24 points. Only Joe Montana (five games in 1981-84) in the early days of the 49ers dynasty had a streak anywhere near that in playoff history.

But we need to chill on the Joe Cool nickname here. I hope Burrow changes his stance here on “Who cares about third-down sacks?” His season largely just ended on one.

An embarrassing Mahomes fumble, a conservative punt decision from Reid, and a blown coverage on third-and-16 – this could have been the unholy trinity to kill another Kansas City postseason short of a championship.

Burrow’s fifth sack on third down by Jones, the 29-yard punt return by Moore, and the 15-yard penalty gift from Ossai – this holy trifecta saved Kansas City’s season and has them in the Super Bowl for the third time in four years.

It took a full team effort for the Chiefs to win this one, and we do not always see that from their wins, but it was the right mix of all three units coming through this time.

I was going to make a section here at the end to describe the Chiefs Twitter brouhaha from earlier this week, but there are two weeks and then some to write about legacies and such things. More importantly, my motivation to write defensively over nonsense at 4:38 A.M. after the team I wanted to win won this dramatic game is just not there. So, I’ll only say be glad that the Chiefs did not fall to 2-3 in home title games, which the favorite wins 72.1% of the time now (62-24).

Be glad they are not 0-4 against these cocky Bengals. Be glad we don’t have to hear “Burrowhead” bullshit, and hopefully the Cincinnati mayor is given a gag order the next time they are in the playoffs.

The Chiefs came through this time, but in the words of Kobe Bryant, the job’s not finished.

49ers at Eagles: Purdy Got Hurt and Hurts Was Purdy Bad

Well, that fvcking sucked.

The NFC’s Game of the Year was a matchup I was looking forward to for a few months now, but it could not have gone much worse than it did in Philadelphia’s 31-7 win.

Rarely do you say a playoff game was decided by each team’s first possession, but that was basically the case here as everything spiraled from the Eagles getting a touchdown they didn’t deserve and Brock Purdy’s elbow injury.

  • The Eagles got a fraudulent touchdown because the referees missed a catch that wasn’t a catch, and Kyle Shanahan was asleep at the wheel with his challenge flag.
  • Purdy was injured (elbow) on his third dropback.
  • The 49ers were sloppy and gave the Eagles a second touchdown drive on a drive that featured three defensive penalties for an automatic first down.
  • Backup quarterback Josh Johnson apparently hasn’t done much two-minute drill work with his 13 NFL teams in his career as he fumbled a snap that led to a 30-yard touchdown drive.
  • A weak roughing the punter was called to extend Philadelphia’s fourth touchdown drive and 28-7 lead.
  • I guess you can only prepare so much on the fly with the Wildcat and using Christian McCaffrey as your emergency QB, but there was a terrible Deebo Samuel run on a fourth-and-2 that set up the Eagles for their final scoring drive (field goal), and even that one included an embarrassing unnecessary roughness penalty on Dre Greenlaw for punching at the ball.
  • After a near fight and Trent Williams showing he had enough of this shit, Deebo had one more brutal fourth-down run where he tried to be Superman but just lost 7 yards and fumbled for technically the third lost fumble of the game for the 49ers.
  • Eagles finally ran out the clock to end this stinker.

But back to that opening drive. You see the 49ers bring pressure on Jalen Hurts, he gets off a low but catchable ball to A.J. Brown for 10 yards on third-and-8, and you think this is going to be a very good game like it should have been.

Then the Eagles go for a fourth-and-3, Hurts is a little too far with the ball, but DeVonta Smith appeared to make this incredible diving catch for 29 yards down to the 6. You think with the way he reacted to hurry up to the line and run the next play that even he knew he didn’t catch it because the ball was loose on the ground, but there was no challenge from Kyle Shanahan. What the hell, man? It probably wasn’t going to get any bigger in the first half than a complete or incomplete call on a fourth down in scoring territory.

The Eagles scored a pretty easy 6-yard rushing touchdown two plays later with Miles Sanders to take a 7-0 lead they didn’t deserve. Maybe the official’s view of the ball was obscured, but where is the expedited review from the booth to correct that one? Where is the challenge from Shanahan? Just failure all around and good luck for the Eagles.

Who knows how the game plays out if the 49ers take over at their own 35 in a 0-0 game, but the Philadelphia pass rush was definitely an issue for what is a good line in San Francisco. I was worried about Brock Purdy making mistakes in this game, but little did I know it’d go down like this.

It’s such a shame too because what a story this rookie was. He completed his first two passes. Nothing that will blow your socks off, but successful gains of 9 and 10 yards to George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk (his only catch of the game).

Then at the 50-yard line, everything changed. Purdy was hit on the arm just as he was trying to release the ball, and Haason Reddick got him just in time for it to be a strip-sack with clear recovery by the Eagles. Nick Sirianni was not asleep at the wheel and got the challenge off, and he got the ball. Purdy was out with an elbow injury and Josh Johnson had to warm up.

The Eagles actually went three-and-out with a very conservative drive. Reddick sacked Johnson on his first dropback to welcome him to the game. Neither offense was doing much as this was starting to look like last year’s 17-11 matchup.

Eventually, the 49ers were winning the field position battle and used a short field (46 yards) to tie the game with Christian McCaffrey doing the heavy lifting on a great 23-yard touchdown run.

The 49ers stopped Hurts on a third-and-2 run, but the Eagles boldly went for it on fourth-and-1 at their own 35. It paid off as Hurts again converted on the sneak.

From there, the 49ers gave up three first downs via penalty, including a big one on third-and-7 that I really wasn’t feeling DPI on Jimmie Ward against A.J. Brown. The other calls looked more legit, and the marathon drive went on until Sanders again scored from 13 yards out, untouched to take a 14-7 lead.

I even said on Twitter that the 49ers had to be careful here. Going into the locker room at 14-7 would not be that bad when you get the ball to start the third. But they tried to go hurry up and that’s when Johnson just flat out dropped the ball on a horrible play that the Eagles recovered 30 yards away from the end zone. They only needed four snaps to cover that before Boston Scott ripped off a 10-yard touchdown run that also looked too easy against an elite run defense.

The Eagles led 21-7 at halftime and things looked bleak.

Just when you thought the 49ers still had a chance after converting a third-and-13 to start the third quarter, Johnson was knocked out with a concussion. Well, it sure does suck that Jimmy Garoppolo was just not quite healthy enough to get back this week as there was hope he’d be available for the Super Bowl.

The 49ers’ emergency option was CMC, and he just took a handoff from Purdy, who came back in the game, for a 4-yard gain and punt.

Could Purdy throw? Apparently not as he would throw just two short passes in the entire second half despite having to finish the game for Johnson. The 49ers really did nothing that unique or fun with Samuel and CMC, though you can hardly blame them for not preparing more offense beyond the third-string rookie quarterback they brought into this game. Just a disastrous year for quarterback injuries for this team.

Meanwhile, Donovan McNabb fvcking wept as Hurts was getting bailed out from a very weak performance in this game.

The 49ers had the top-ranked defense, but he did not even look under duress as much as the 49ers quarterbacks did (or Joe Burrow later in the day), and even the coverage was not all that tight on his receivers. But Hurts’ accuracy was poor, he got the 29-yard gain to Smith that should have been incomplete, and he finished this game with 121 passing yards on 25 attempts.

That is 4.84 YPA in a championship game the Eagles won 31-7. It’s the first time a quarterback won a conference championship game by 14+ points with a YPA under 5.0 since Steve McNair against the 1999 Jaguars with Tennessee (33-14 win with 4.9 YPA).

It wasn’t even that great of a rushing day for Hurts, who finished with 11 runs for 39 yards. It just so happens that 29 of those yards, and his 15th rushing touchdown of the season, came after the 49ers were penalized for a brutal roughing the punter penalty to negate a fourth-and-6 punt from midfield.

I felt like the defender was blocked into the punter. Either way, it should be a really unnecessary hit to count as roughing the punter, and that one was weak in my view. But the Eagles turned it into another touchdown and this was over at 28-7 late in the third quarter.

If Purdy could physically throw, I believe they would have tried more. But it just did not happen in this game. The fourth quarter was just watching the 49ers get more and more frustrated with themselves as Samuel and McCaffrey couldn’t sustain drives for them with zero passing game. This isn’t Army vs. Navy after all.

Then the ruckus late in the fourth quarter was a bad look with Williams and K’Von Wallace getting ejected.

That was just a trash game, and we’ll never know what Purdy would have did without the injury. Maybe he has a decent game and it puts more pressure on Hurts, who did not look good at all to me.

But this seems to be what happens when the Eagles face a good team. The health of the opposing quarterback is just not there, and sure enough, they are getting Mahomes in the Super Bowl after he appeared to aggravate his ankle injury. We know he’s going to play, and both these quarterbacks can use the time off before this one, but we’ll see how the Chiefs handle that pass rush.

I think they handle it better than the Bengals would have, but I have two weeks to overanalyze a game where both fan bases will think I hate their team when the reality is I have a clear rooting interest in this one.

NFL 2022 Conference Championship Game Predictions

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

After the games ended last Sunday, I had a very clear prediction in mind for this week that it would be Cincinnati vs. San Francisco in the Super Bowl.

But as the week has gone on, I’ve done a 180 on both games, and maybe a 270 would be more accurate as I’m torn on both as I can see good arguments for every team to win.

This usually doesn’t happen for me, but this is also an unusual pair of games for Championship Sunday. It is looking like it will be just the third time where both games had a spread under 3 points. There have only been 12 games out of 104 since 1970 in this round that had a spread under 3 points, and the kicker is 10 of those 12 games were still decided by double digits.

I wrote previews this week, and now I may be giving conflicting final picks because I really am not sure on either game. I’d say all four possible Super Bowl matchups have just about a 25% split of happening, which I would almost never say about a final four.

Hopefully the games will be good, because last week was not.

Teaser picks for both games (total and spread).

San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

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How the 49ers can upset the Eagles

NFC-CG Props

It comes down to this: Eagles are the last team standing that have no glaring flaw, while the 49ers have to overcome a rookie QB making his first road playoff start against the No. 1 pass defense that has 70 sacks and great corner play. NFL history alone would tell you the Eagles win this game and possibly by more than one possession, but we also know Kyle Shanahan has had his teams very close in the playoffs. They have blown a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter of a Super Bowl and NFC-CG.

And No. 1 defenses also fare pretty well this time of year, but again, the Eagles are quite good on that side of the ball too. Brock Purdy hasn’t lost a start yet, but Jalen Hurts has lost one all year for this team and it still took four giveaways (three, really, with a junk fumble TD padding the stats) and an insane day on 3rd down by the Washington offense.

I think Purdy makes dangerous decisions because that’s what you’d expect from Mr. Irrelevant, but I keep seeing the Seahawks and Cowboys fail to make him pay for it. I think the Eagles make him pay, and I think they get just enough out of the ground game and using Hurts’ legs to win this one.

But it should be a game that comes down to turnovers, which isn’t something that we’ve seen a lot of this postseason like we usually do. Hell, the Jaguars won a game by being -5 in turnovers, Bills were negative against Miami and won, the NYG-MIN game had none, and the Bills were also down 27-10 with a minute to play against the Bengals before a turnover (meaningless one). The biggest turnover this postseason so far is the QB sneak by the Ravens against the Bengals.

But why turnovers? The defenses involved here, and the fact that the 49ers are 15-0 with 0-1 turnovers and 0-4 with 2+ turnovers this year. The Eagles have two 4-turnover games in losses and Gardner Minshew threw a pick-six in the third loss against New Orleans.

I think the Eagles force enough mistakes from the rookie to end this 12-game winning streak for the 49ers.

Final: Eagles 27, 49ers 20

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

Full AFC Championship Game prevew

Early week preview on this game

AFC-CG Props

This spread has gone crazy from KC -2.5 to CIN -2.5 to CIN -1 to KC -1.5 as no one knows what to really make of Patrick Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain. We’ll just have to see Sunday, but with the spread and the Chiefs not even listing him on the final injury report, it would sound like it’s business as usual. Mahomes’ O/U is even 283.5 passing yards, and the Bengals have held him to 275 or less in the last three meetings. Travis Kelce popping up with a back injury is concerning though.

I’ll address the Twitter brouhaha more in Stat Oddity tomorrow night after we see what happens, but all I’ve been saying is it would be a bad look for what was supposed to be the NFL’s next dynasty to do this:

  • Lose 31-9 in the Super Bowl vs. Tampa while getting badly outcoached on both sides of the ball
  • Go 1-3 vs. two chief rivals in AFC last year (Bills and Bengals)
  • That includes the 2021 AFC Championship Game loss where the Chiefs were a 7-point home favorite, blew the biggest home lead (21-3) in title game history by Mahomes botching the end of the first half and getting zero points there, then falling victim to a three-man rush to take four sacks in the fourth quarter, almost have a season-ending fumble in the red zone that was recovered by the line, almost throw an overtime pick on second down, then get intercepted on third down to set up the Bengals at midfield for their game-winning field goal.
  • Then to go 0-2 vs. chief rivals (BUF/CIN) again this year with Mahomes throwing a game-ending INT vs. Bills and Kelce fumbling against the Bengals and Mahomes taking a third-down sack that led to a missed 55-yard FG before the Bengals ran out the clock.
  • But they beat the Jaguars last week and Buffalo lost badly, so here we are again in Arrowhead for the title game. But the Chiefs will fall to 2-3 in AFC title games and 3-4 in all championship games in the Mahomes era if they do not win this game, for which they are again favored as they have been in all 13 playoff games.
  • If Andy Reid loses this game, he will be 3-5 in title games at home in his career, and he and Bill Cowher will account for 8-of-17 (47.1%) title game losses as a home favorite in the salary cap era.

Some would say that’s a bad look, or disappointing. But I am still trying to adjust to this new logic introduced this week that simply being in these games means more than winning or losing them, or even losing more of them than you win.

I think this game could have a Colts-Patriots 2003 AFC Championship Game level of impact on the league for the next 10-to-15 years. The narratives could be absurd, especially if the winner goes on to finish the job in the Super Bowl.

But as for the matchup, I’m most interested in seeing if Mahomes’ injury is relevant or if he looks normal as could be, which seems miraculous given the usual nature of this injury. But beyond that, can this actually be a benefit to the Chiefs if it causes Reid to call a much different game that gets the ball out faster from the pocket so Mahomes doesn’t have to use his legs that much?

The Bengals have done a fantastic job of making Mahomes hold the ball. Sometimes it was the three-time rush, and sometimes it has just been making him indecisive and watching him scramble too much. This has been a common theme in most of KC’s losses since 2020. The last 5 times he’s lost, which includes the 0-3 record vs. Cincinnati, were games where Mahomes held he ball over 3.0 seconds per throw. His two worst games in that stat the last two years are against the Bengals, who even had him up to 4.0 seconds in the 2nd half of the title game last year when they went 3-man rush on 45% of passes.

Then in 2020, we know that Mahomes had almost 500 scramble yards on passes in both losses against the Raiders and Buccaneers. Making him scramble for his life has been effective, and I just wonder if the Bengals dial up more blitzes in this one to test his mobility. How does KC answer? With more screens to RBs, with more of Pacheco on the ground, more involvement of Kadarius Toney, more short passes to Kelce like they did last week when he had 14 catches for 98 yards? It’s a very interesting chess match on that side of the ball that we’re about to see.

As for the other side, I think Burrow and the Bengals shredded the Chiefs in Week 13 and should be ready for this one against by far the worst defense still playing this season. But what if, for a change, the Chiefs actually stepped up on defense to help out their not-100%-healthy QB? Maybe Chris Jones could even muster a playoff sack or two as he still has none in 13 career playoff games. Burrow is 21-1 in his last 30 games when he takes fewer than 5.0 sacks and 1-7 when he takes 5+ sacks. Put his ass down in this game. He’s not a playoff legend yet as he still has never led a fourth-quarter touchdown drive in six playoff games.

We’ll see what happens, but the Chiefs come in with the better QB, the Bengals have the better team. If Mahomes is still struggling on handoffs and throwing some funny balls because of the injury, then giving them the nod for best QB may even be off in this matchup Sunday. But no one knows until he plays on it.

So, am I going for the reverse jinx to screw the cocky-ass Bengals who are tempting the football gods with all the noise this week, the reverse-reverse jinx to shut up Kansas City’s most annoying fans on Twitter, or do I honestly think the Bengals are winning this game? All I can tell you is I want the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, just like I did the last four Championship Sundays, and batting 1-for-4 is fine if this was baseball.

Sorry if I have higher standards, but who saw the Bengals making back-to-back Super Bowls so quickly? Also, if they win on the road again without three starting offensive linemen, how impressive is that when Chiefs fans blow a gasket over the Eric Fisher injury two years ago? Coach better. Play better.

But you know what, I’m going to stick to my original research that started this nonsense and declare it would be too much of an oddity for Mahomes to have more home title game losses in just five years than any QB in history has in their whole careers. The Bengals are lucky but they are not the 2003-04 Patriots.

Final: Chiefs 28, Bengals 27

And you know what, I’m still probably taking the NFC to win the Super Bowl no matter which of these teams win tomorrow.