I guess I got one more Super Bowl preview left in me. This is the only place where I post my final score prediction, but it has been a long two weeks to get to this point. I don’t know how many times I wrote about the oddities of 42-30 from last year’s meeting, or why I love Jalen Hurts as a touchdown scorer who might even do it on The Philly Special II, or why the referees (Carl Cheffers) are worth betting on for a flag fest.
Seriously, play those penalty props wherever you can find them (over in total yards, over in Kansas City penalty yards):
But unlike the last round where I ended up changing both my picks from Sunday to Saturday to the Chiefs and Eagles winning, I have not moved on this game.
The Eagles should win Super Bowl LVII, but the Chiefs certainly can pull it off.
This is already the third Super Bowl for Patrick Mahomes, the two-time MVP, and once again he goes up against the best pass defense he could from the NFC. Argue all you want about the 49ers being a better overall defense than the Eagles, but Mahomes already shredded that unit in Week 7.
I feel like I’m just going to keep recycling my old Mahomes Super Bowl content for these matchups.
Teams like the Eagles usually beat teams like the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, but what if Mahomes is just different? I wrote that from scratch, but after checking, yep, I pretty much wrote this already about Super Bowl LIV against the 49ers:
There are a lot of areas that favor the 49ers, and I think historically the 49ers are the type of team more likely to win this game than a team like the Chiefs. There are just more ways for the 49ers to win while practically every positive outcome for Kansas City involves Mahomes playing really well.
Defense wins championships. Football teams are built in the trenches. Hyped QB matchups usually disappoint in the Super Bowl. That’s what I’d write about Chiefs vs. Eagles, and that’s also probably what I wrote about Chiefs vs. Buccaneers two years ago in Super Bowl LV. Oh look, I did.
Defense wins championships. Football games are decided in the trenches. Overhyped quarterback matchups tend to disappoint.
This is why I really do see Super Bowl LVII as a game that will either be like Chiefs-49ers where Mahomes and the offense figure it out in the 4Q to win or at least make it a 3-4 point game/tight finish, or it is going to be another blowout like Chiefs-Buccaneers where the pass rush is all over the QB on the injured ankle and the secondary is all over the injured receivers and shut downs Travis Kelce again.
Tale as old as time, right?
I’ve said this year that the Eagles are a team that’s dying to blow a 14 or 17-point lead in the playoffs after a dominant first half. Maybe the offense goes into turtle mode. Maybe the famed QB push sneak they’ve perfected gets stopped on a key fourth-and-1 to give the Chiefs new life. Maybe Jalen Hurts just has another off game against a young defense has has showed some improvement down the stretch.
The problem I have in this game is that it really takes Philadelphia uncharacteristically screwing up (like a turnover party) for the Chiefs to probably win. Otherwise, it is going to have to be a Mahomes masterclass, and I’m just not sure the offense is healthy or talented enough for him to do that in this matchup. The Eagles holding Kelce to 23 yards and holding everyone not named Tyreek Hill (186 yards) under 25 yards last year bugs me, because they’ve only gotten better in the pass rush and secondary with the additions of Haason Reddick and James Bradberry. Not to mention AJ. Brown on offense, who crushed the Chiefs in the last time the Chiefs were blown out (27-3 against the Titans last year).
In fact, there is so much history on the line in this game, and that’s why I want to get to my links because I wrote about it all (multiple times) the last two weeks. I’ll obviously recap what did and did not happen in the final Stat Oddity of the season tomorrow night, but let’s get to all the Super Bowl links I feel like sharing.
My Super Bowl Content:
- Kansas City’s road to the Super Bowl
- Philadelphia’s road to the Super Bowl
- Top SB Storylines (Read here for the facts on Philadelphia’s easy schedule)
- 3 Keys for the Eagles to Beat the Chiefs
- 3 Keys for the Chiefs to Beat the Eagles
- Coaching Staff Breakdowns & Edge
- Rookie Betting Mistakes for the Super Bowl
- Who I’m Betting on for Super Bowl MVP
- Skill Players and DST Analysis for both teams
- The most amusing Super Bowl props you can bet on
- Best Value Props for SB 57: Penalties!
- SB 57 Player Props
- SB 57 Teaser Picks
- SB 57 DFS lineups (4 choices)
- Will Patrick Mahomes win SB MVP?
- General SB 57 Preview and Picks
- SB 57 Parlay
Final Super Bowl LVII Prediction
I would love nothing more than a high-scoring, close Super Bowl that is an instant classic. Maybe it’s a 27-24 game (or 37-34 if you saw the leaked script, wink wink nudge nudge). Hopefully we get an 18th Super Bowl in the last 20 that is within one score in the fourth quarter.
But a lot of times these Super Bowls disappoint. Just look at two of the last four years when we had 13-3 and 31-9, two games where a team didn’t even score a touchdown. This 2022 NFL season has been filled with disappointing and low-scoring island games. The playoffs have been very disappointing as the only game with a fourth-quarter lead change was Chargers-Jaguars, and even that happened on the final snap so we couldn’t see how the Chargers would answer.
We really need something great to end this season on a high note, and I just don’t see it here. I think the Eagles revert to the team they were during the 8-0 start, meaning a dominant second quarter before they settle in the range of 21-to-29 points, and I’ll give the Chiefs just enough points to look respectable after last time’s embarrassment of scoring 9. But even in that game they dropped two touchdown opportunities.
I just keep coming back to the difference in the trenches, the difference in health at the skill players, the depth of the Eagles, and the way they aren’t afraid to go for fourth downs. I can’t even trust the Chiefs to convert a third-and-1 this year, and I sure don’t expect them to QB sneak it on fourth-and-1. Throw in the Carl Cheffers, Chiefs nemesis, angle at referee, and the Chiefs might be getting the short end of the stick there too.
I think it will look closer to Chiefs-49ers than Chiefs-Buccaneers, because Hurts doesn’t have that LOAT edge like Tom Brady. But if Chad Henne plays a significant role in this game, I’ll immediately change my mind on that. But I think it’s closer to Chiefs-49ers, and maybe this time Mahomes just doesn’t have Hill to convert a third-and-15 to. The roster weakness they covered up so well all year ultimately comes back to bite them in the Super Bowl against the No. 1 pass defense after too many injuries sustained in the last two playoff games. That’d be a damn shame, but it’s what I see happening in this one.
Forgive me if I rushed through this preview and it’s not as neatly organized and in depth like they used to be for the Super Bowl, but when you’re writing for four sites for 13 days about this one game, you just want to get to kickoff tomorrow at 6:30. I’m wiped out.
I cannot promise a good game tomorrow night, but I can promise a worthy recap to put it in its rightful place in history. But let’s hope I’m wrong I’m on this one.
Final: Eagles 27, Chiefs 20 (Super Bowl MVP: Haason Reddick)