NFL 2024 Week 18 Predictions: Feeling Minnesota Edition

The final weekend of the 2024 NFL regular season is here. I just took a peek at my preseason predictions for final records and they’re shaping up to be my worst ever, and the Minnesota Vikings are one of the biggest misses as I had them finishing 4-13. They’re a win away from going 15-2 and claiming the No. 1 seed with Sam Darnold having one of the greatest late-bloomer seasons ever, if not the greatest at the quarterback position.

But a lot of people probably made that mistake, right? It’s been a wild season with Washington also surprising people with its first 11-win season since 1991 behind rookie Jayden Daniels. The 49ers also repeated their 2020 “injury doom after a Super Bowl loss” season.

A lot to wrap up Sunday night when this thing is over and Game 272 is in the books.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 18 Predictions

The last week is always tricky as some teams could give a shit about the effort they’re going to put into this game, and for others, it’s literally the season on the line.

Like I said, some of these games mean little to nothing to these teams, so I’m only going to focus on the important ones here.

C:LE-BAL: All bets are off on Lamar’s MVP if he blows it as a 20-point favorite. That should go without saying. But I don’t expect Bailey Zappe to shock the world Saturday.

CIN-PIT: I wrote about this in my picks link above as I like the Steelers to win what might be their last win this season given their recent playoff flops. I think they know how to move the ball well against the Bengals and score points, and I believe in Cincy’s fatal flaws catching up to them with the season on the line. That means Joe Burrow taking sacks (please show up big for my DPOY futures bet, T.J. Watt) and the defense getting shredded. The Steelers are healthy after a long break from Christmas, so let’s see a better effort and send the Bengals home while likely clinching that No. 5 seed and a reasonable trip to Houston for the wild card.

BUF-NE: It doesn’t matter for the playoffs, but I’m going with New England in an upset win as it could satisfy two things for the Bills. After Josh Allen leaves the game after extending his consecutive starts streak, they can play like ass and lose big to the lowly Patriots to try bolstering his MVP case in another ridiculous fashion. But more importantly, don’t let the Patriots have control of the No. 1 pick in the draft and possibly land Travis Hunter as a weapon for Drake Maye. Lose this game to New England if you’re smart about the big picture in the AFC East.

NFC South: I’ll be shocked if the Bucs don’t come through and win against the awful Saints’ offense to win the NFC South.

KC-DEN: It sure looks like the Chiefs are not playing their ~12 best players or so in this game. You can’t bench everybody, but it’s going to be Carson Wentz and a slew of backups. Yet I’m still going to trust them to cover the spread and make it tough on Denver, which could be playing for its season if the Bengals win Saturday night. We’ll see but I think this game has some 2004 Steelers-Bills vibes to it.

MIA-NYJ: I don’t think this will be the last NFL game for Aaron Rodgers, but I do think he’s going to throw his 500th touchdown and get a win in what will be his last game for the Jets.

MIN-DET: The big one. 14-2 vs. 14-2. The Lions are +200 on the scoreboard and have had this incredible season, but I think the Vikings have the right stuff to win this game and earn the No. 1 seed. They have the defense that gets a takeaway every week, has held teams to 11/31 (35.5%) on 4th down to lead the league, and can get after Jared Goff like they did last time. I like the offense being able to score against this injury-ravaged defense that has allowed a lot of plays and points in recent weeks, and I think Darnold can get it done as he already has 5 GWDs this season.

It’s a little ballsy, but I’m feeling Minnesota in the Game of the Year that’s as much of a playoff game without being a literal playoff game. You either get a bye week and home-field advantage or you have to go on the road next week despite 14 wins. That’s crazy stuff. But I also think this is a fantastic trial run for Darnold for what real playoff games will be like. That’s why I still think this team has a shot to get to New Orleans even if they drop this game in a close one.

Maybe that’s a hint of where I’m going with my playoff picks this year, but let’s figure out these seeds and matchups before we get into that next week.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 16

The NFL delivered such a frontloaded Week 16 schedule that six of the likely AFC playoff teams already played on Thursday and Saturday. All that Sunday had left was Buffalo slumming it with the Patriots.

But the games were competitive, and 12 of the 15 games so far this week had a comeback opportunity with six game-winning drives already in the books. We saw a concussion knock Jalen Hurts out of the big game in Washington, an iconic performance for Jayden Daniels in the comeback win, and the Cowboys even decided to play hard Sunday night to upset the Buccaneers and bring some chaos to the NFC South.

A week ago, people were flocking towards an Eagles-Bills Super Bowl. Now, that doesn’t look so hot with the reality that neither is likely to be a No. 1 seed, and teams like the Chiefs, Lions, Vikings, Packers, and Ravens are still very much relevant in this race.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Eagles at Commanders: Kenny Pickett? (Read It in the “Scut Farkas?” Narration Voice)

Sunday’s best game on paper turned out to be the best game for reasons no one expected. Jalen Hurts was ruled out early after a concussion on a long run where he just looked a hair off after getting up. That was enough to take him out and replace him with Kenny Pickett of all people.

Oh, it was quite the Pickett experience too as he took 3 sacks with his oblivious nature to the pass rush, he threw a pick, he locked onto basically 2 receivers (A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith had 23 of the team’s 28 pass targets), the Eagles were 3-for-16 on third down, and he still made a couple of clutch throws that probably should have won the game.

But it didn’t work out this time as Philadelphia’s winning streak was snapped at 10 games. The Eagles got a 68-yard touchdown run out of Saquon Barkley, but his other 28 carries only gained 82 yards as the Commanders kept stuffing runs to stay in the game after the offense had 5 turnovers on a sloppy day where they even started the game with a turnover on downs after Brian Robinson Jr. was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 run.

The ability to withstand 5 giveaways and still come back to beat a top defense like the Eagles 36-33 is really impressive for Jayden Daniels, the rookie sensation who absolutely locked up the Offensive Rookie of the Year award here. Even with his skill players fumbling 3 times and giving him 32 rushing yards, Daniels was a dual-threat machine in this game with 258 passing yards and 81 rushing yards. The only other quarterback in NFL history to even have one game with 5 touchdown passes, 220 passing yards, and 70 rushing yards was Cam Newton in 2015 against the Giants, a game that locked up his MVP award that year.

Would things have turned out differently if Hurts wasn’t concussed? Perhaps. But it’s not like the Eagles didn’t score 33 points, didn’t lead 14-0/21-7/27-14, or didn’t rack up takeaways. They just couldn’t finish the job.

Barkley had a big drop on his only pass target in the fourth quarter. Later, Daniels made his biggest mistake with an interception with 2:53 left in a 30-28 game. But instead of icing the game, the Eagles couldn’t convert a 3rd-and-5 when Pickett’s pass was dropped by a wide-open Smith, a shockingly bad drop that’s even worse than the one Barkley had in Week 2 against Atlanta, another improbable loss for the Eagles this year and why their shot at the No. 1 seed is all but toast.

That gave Daniels another shot in a 33-28 game with 1:52 left, and he delivered another clutch drive for a 9-yard touchdown to Jamison Crowder with 6 seconds left to go up 36-33 after a 2-point conversion run.

The Commanders are still going to likely fall short of winning the NFC East, but can you imagine if the wild card match is No. 7 Washington at No. 2 Philadelphia? That just got a lot more likely and interesting after this game.

Texans at Chiefs: Stroud-Mahomes I Not Quite as Planned

When the NFL schedule came out in May, I was hyping up Texans-Chiefs as a huge game for the MVP race and No. 1 seed. I thought C.J. Stroud would be the next challenger to Patrick Mahomes in the AFC, and this game would be his chance on a national stage to show how far he and this team has come against the defending champs.

Well, the season hasn’t quite turned out that way, but both teams still came in as division winners and the Chiefs are chasing the No. 1 seed. I also think Stroud held his own and did a decent job on the road after losing Tank Dell to a gruesome knee injury. He’s already lost Stefon Diggs, so it’s basically Nico Collins and some guys, and one of those guys (tight end Dalton Schultz) had a pretty egregious drop in the second half.

But Stroud also threw two picks, and you can’t do that in Kansas City. The Chiefs are getting that turnover regression in full force now with 8 takeaways in the last two games after 10 takeaways through 13 games. The offense also hasn’t turned it over in 5 straight games, the longest streak in the Mahomes era. So, everything I was saying about turnovers for this team earlier this season is coming true now with the defense starting to get them and the offense avoiding them well.

But it was still another one-score win despite the Chiefs only spending about 5-6 minutes trailing in a game they mostly controlled. Hollywood Brown made his season debut and looked solid given he’s never played a real game before with this offense. Definitely should be a plus going forward. Even Xaiver Worthy played well and scored another touchdown. Still not getting much from the running game, but I like that the Chiefs made a real effort to get the ball out fast against an elite pass rush.

Mahomes played very well, and go figure, he showed on the opening drive that the ankle was no big deal with two huge scrambles, including a 15-yard touchdown run. The Chiefs finished with 27 points on 9 drives, and that includes Kareem Hunt sliding down at the end when he could have scored if he wanted to.

But the Chiefs are more than content with their 27-19 type of victory as they are 14-1 and march towards another No. 1 seed. They get two cracks at winning one game to clinch it.

Steelers at Ravens: Pittsburgh Might Lose Out Now

Why does this game feel so long ago when Saturday was just one day before Sunday? But I wanted to quickly touch on three things with this one.

First, Russell Wilson undoubtedly screwed things up here in a game that was more high scoring than expected and there for the taking. He got greedy on the scramble that turned into a fumble when he should have been satisfied with a 1st-and-goal. Then the pick-six after Minkah Fitzpatrick delivered an incredible pick was just a back breaker and game ender to make it 31-17 in the fourth quarter. Can’t afford those kind of mistakes on the road against a playoff opponent.

As for Mike Tomlin, I think he let the Philadelphia punt beat him twice. Tomlin was rightfully criticized for punting last week in Philadelphia before the Eagles went on to run out the final 10-plus minutes on the clock. But instead of learning the right lesson that the punt was bad because of the 27-13 score and the struggles to get Philly off the field, Tomin ignored the game situation Saturday and made another bad call when he went for a 4th-and-6 at the Baltimore 45 with a whole quarter left. Wilson threw deep to Calvin Austin for an incompletion.

Maybe it’s a moot point since two plays later, Lamar Jackson wasted Derrick Henry’s 44-yard run by throwing a pick, but I still would like to see Tomlin learn when to punt and when to go for it with better skill and reasoning instead of what feels like randomness. He got aggressive in a spot that really didn’t call for it. I also think he was frustrated the Ravens recovered all 3 of those early fumbles that could have really turned this game around. It just wasn’t Pittsburgh’s day as fumble recoveries on those plays is key to how they’ve been beating Baltimore so routinely.

But I wouldn’t say it was exactly Lamar Jackson’s day either. Sure, he threw 3 touchdowns and got his cleanest win yet against the Steelers. But he only hit one 20-yard completion in the game against a secondary that was already missing a corner (Donte Jackson) and lost another (Joey Porter Jr.) to injury. T.J. Watt wasn’t 100% after a fourth-quarter injury last week and wasn’t a factor here. The Ravens recovered Jackson’s early strip-sack fumble. He only had 25 rushing yards on 6 carries, so they kept him contained again. Then he threw a horrible pick in the red zone when the Ravens had their shot to go up two scores.

But Henry rushed for 162 yards and the Steelers left some key receivers open throughout the game. I don’t think they’d have any fear of a rematch even if it was played in Baltimore in the playoffs. George Pickens, Jackson, and Porter Jr. should be back for that one and a healthier Watt (hopefully).

We might end up seeing that too, because it wouldn’t be surprising if the Steelers lost out here with the Chiefs and Bengals up next. I guess it depends on how badly both teams need that Week 18 game.

But the Ravens needed this one to avoid losing the AFC North, and they came through. We’ll see what they do in Houston next while the Steelers have to deal with the Chiefs.

Patriots at Bills: Running Backs Matter?

As new AFC East rivals, you’re going to hear a lot of comparisons between Drake Maye and Josh Allen in the next few years, or at least for as long enough as Maye gives us a reason to.

Here’s one such comparison: Maye’s 2024 rookie season is better than Josh Allen’s 2018 rookie season. If the Patriots invest wisely this offseason, I’d expect Maye’s second season to also be better than Allen’s second season. Anything beyond that might be a stretch.

But that’s the future. As for Sunday, it’s no stretch at all to say Maye outplayed Allen in their first matchup but didn’t get the win because of the difference in how their running backs played. It was 14 degrees at kickoff, but Maye did well throwing the ball in Buffalo, making some excellent plays down the field and in tight windows on shorter throws.

The Patriots led 14-0 early, but they couldn’t build on that lead. Buffalo also quickly cut into half of it with a 46-yard touchdown run by James Cook, his fourth burst from over 40 yards for a score this year. He later added another touchdown catch on another drive where he broke a 25-yard run.

It covered up a poor game from Allen, who threw for 154 yards on 16-of-29 passing. He only had one touchdown pass and threw an ugly looking interception in the end zone that the Patriots were caught trying to return instead of taking the touchback. Allen only rushed for 30 yards too, so it just wasn’t a very effective game for him at all. His 28.7 QBR was the third lowest this week while Maye’s was 67.3.

But this game turned in the third quarter when Rhamondre Stevenson lost a fumble, setting up the Bills for a 50-yard go-ahead field goal on a drive that was just 10 yards long. The Bills led 17-14 and never trailed again from that point. I can’t help but point out all the big fumbles the skill players for the Patriots have had since 2020 after Tom Brady left the team. This didn’t use to happen to them, but it has now and Stevenson is a repeat offender with some huge fumbles in his career.

This game is another glaring example, but the stat sheet is going to show that Maye fumbled on a lateral pass to Stevenson in the fourth quarter that was returned for an easy Buffalo touchdown to make it 24-14.

Was the pass too hard? Hell no. That’s a pretty soft lob that hit Stevenson right in the hands well before any contact. The problem was he shouldn’t have thrown it as the defender was bearing down and it was going to be a huge loss even if caught. Throwing it backwards to make it a live ball instead of forward to be a swing pass that might go incomplete just made it worse.

But that play really ruined the game for New England, and I swear Stevenson is a double agent at times for this team. Don’t forget the time he choked against the Bengals in 2022 on 1st-and-goal from inside the 5.

Eventually, the Patriots scored a touchdown with 1:13 left, but they wasted almost a full minute after having 1st-and-goal at the 1 with 2:14 left. Antonio Gibson, the other back, was stuffed for a 3-yard loss, leading to an extended series of plays, including a bad dropped fumble by Maye that he recovered, that took a minute off the clock and left the Patriots with little hope of getting the ball back despite keeping all three timeouts.

Maybe Drake Maye should embrace his “the new Josh Allen” and should have did the Tush Push on that 1st-and-goal play at 2:14. Get this thing in before the 2-minute warning and the Patriots could have had 4 clock stoppages in a 24-21 game on a day where Allen wasn’t good.

But this is why the Patriots are 3-12.

Buccaneers at Cowboys: Where Was This Dallas Team Earlier?

The Cowboys (7-8) may have been eliminated from the playoffs Sunday, but they’re possibly a botched punt against Cincinnati away from a 5-game winning streak after taking down the Buccaneers in a wild 26-24 game Sunday night.

Where was this team earlier in the season when it was getting destroyed by 20-point deficits at home every week? Cooper Rush had a successful night against the Tampa Bay defense, and the Buccaneers had some really poor plays with drops and getting outmuscled for the ball by Dallas’ defense who just looked like they wanted it more all night. The interception in the fourth quarter in the end zone was a great example of that.

But what about the ending? It looked like Tampa Bay was going to pull off an improbable 9-point comeback in the last 5:00 by scoring twice. They got the ball back with 1:40 and only needed a field goal. But one of the craziest endings you’ll ever see took place. On the first snap, Baker Mayfield kept fighting to avoid a sack, flipped the ball out to receiving back Rachaad White, who carried it like a loaf of bread before securing it and gaining some YAC.

But even though he got both hands on the ball again, the Cowboys still ripped the ball away from him for a game-deciding fumble. Madness.

Tampa Bay (8-7) is going to need Atlanta to lose a game if it wants to win the NFC South again. This was a bad performance in Dallas for them.

Vikings at Seahawks: Another Close Win for Kevin O’Connell and Sam Darnold

Remember when the Vikings were 5-0 and people started writing them off after a little 2-game losing streak? Well, they’re 8-0 since their last loss, and the latest test they passed was another gut-check win on the road in Seattle against a team playing for a division title chase.

I continue to be impressed with Sam Darnold, who shook off another 3-sack game by still throwing 3 touchdowns, including the game winner from 39 yards out to Justin Jefferson with 3:51 left. Darnold has led 5 game-winning drives this season, doubling his career total he had coming into 2024.

Geno Smith played well on that knee injury for most of the game, but when push came to shove, he took a sack and a fantastic tackle on a 3rd-and-16 checkdown to the running back led to a 60-yard field goal, which was missed with 1:55 left. After Smith got the ball back with 55 seconds left and still in need of a field goal for overtime, he immediately threw a bad pick to end the game.

I’m heavily rooting for the Vikings to beat Green Bay next week so that we can get the last game of the regular season to be Vikings-Lions in Detroit for the No. 1 seed. I’m also not ruling out 2024 being Sam Darnold’s Eli/Flacco/Foles moment as we feel overdue for that kind of postseason.

Lions at Bears: On the Bright Side, No Clock Mismanagement This Time…

The Bears almost beat the Lions on Thanksgiving, but there was no such close finish this time as the score stayed 34-17 the entire final quarter. It didn’t help that the Bears had another slow start, falling behind 20-0, but you have to blame Rome Odunze for a couple of early fumble plays for that this time.

But the Lions were excellent on offense with a big game from Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs in a starring role without David Montgomery (MCL). I believe the theory that offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was “showing off” to impress the Bears’ front office if he is to be their next head coach. Calling that intentional “stumble” play with Goff throwing a touchdown was an excellent example of him pulling out all the tricks even when the Lions probably didn’t need them to beat Chicago again.

But Johnson should want to coach a team like Chicago. First, you stay out of the AFC where most of the elite quarterbacks are, and you have a chance to build up the Bears with Caleb Williams, who again had a game where I think it showed his potential more than it did problems. He threw for 334 yards, no picks again, and he only took 2 sacks this week. He was also his team’s leading rusher again with 34 yards.

Johnson is a hot commodity in the coaching ranks, so we’ll see where he lands next month. But this very well may have been part of his interview with the Bears.

Rams at Jets: Almost a Historic Game

The Rams just can’t play a “normal” game this month. They go from a 44-42 wire-to-wire win over the Bills to a 12-6 comeback win in rainy San Francisco, and now it’s a 19-9 win in New York that looks low scoring as hell, but this game actually came close to being historic.

Each team only had the ball three times in the first half as long drives ruled the day. In the third quarter, the Jets had a drive that lasted nearly 10 minutes and ended with a turnover on downs, a killer and probably a bad decision to go for a 4th-and-4 instead of a short field goal to go up 12-6.

But the Rams’ next drive bled into the fourth quarter, a game-tying field goal drive, so we had a game with just 8 total possessions with 12:44 to play. This could have set the record for the fastest 60-minute NFL game ever played and the one with the fewest possessions between two teams (think 11 would do the trick, maybe 12), but we didn’t get there in the end.

Aaron Rodgers went from some strong drive engineering as his protection held up to giving up the ball on a strip-sack as he got a little too comfortable in holding onto it. That put the Rams on a short field for a go-ahead touchdown drive as Matthew Stafford found a healthy Tyler Higbee for 11 yards. Rodgers couldn’t answer on the ensuing 4th-and-4, and the Rams added a field goal to make it 19-9.

The Jets’ last real hope was a 49-yard field goal with 2:02 left, but as has been the case all season, the kicking team blew it. Even when they tried to get one last possession back, they muffed the punt, so the special teams have been just abysmal for the 2024 Jets.

And that’s how you end up blowing your sixth 4th-quarter lead of the year to lead all teams, the most since Josh McDaniels’ Raiders in 2022. Just going to leave this here, and keep in mind it’s 15 starts that Rodgers started and finished this year as that 16 number includes last year’s Buffalo opener when he tore his Achilles.

Cardinals at Panthers: Adios, Arizona

The Cardinals (7-8) have been eliminated from the playoffs after a bad loss in Carolina. They forced overtime after trailing 20-3 early and 30-20 in the fourth quarter. But losing James Conner, who was having a huge game, didn’t help, and in overtime, the Cardianls couldn’t get a drive going. They were even so desperate to move the chains they went for a 4th-and-2 at their own 18, which would have set the Panthers up for a game-winning chipshot if they didn’t get it.

They converted, but the reason that’s a big gamble is you’re still not guaranteed to move the ball any deeper and might end up punting it back anyway. That’s exactly what happened too. Between a delay of game penalty and sack of Kyler Murray on third down, the Cardinals ended up punting from their own 4 after another penalty on top of that. By the time the Panthers got the ball for the second time in overtime, they were at midfield and it only took one Chuba Hubbard run for 28 yards to get in field goal range, then he just ended it with a 21-yard touchdown run to win 36-30.

I don’t know if Bryce Young will ever be good, but I do know that Kyler Murray just missed the playoffs for the fifth time in six years in Arizona, and no one seems to care about that. He’s reaching that Sam Bradford level of “no one cares” for a No. 1 overall pick.

Browns at Bengals: Should Have Been Jameis All Along

As it turns out, Jameis Winston had some type of injury that kept him out of action this week. It’s a shame because I think the Browns could have won this game with him taking on that defense instead of a minimal passing game from Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who took 5 sacks and threw 2 picks while leading the offense to 6 points on 10 drives. That will help the stats for the Cincinnati defense this year.

You could tell early that it wouldn’t be Cleveland’s day when D’Onta Foreman fumbled at the 1-yard line to start the game instead of taking a 7-0 lead. The Bengals were stuck on 17 points for a while, and Joe Burrow even fumbled on a strip-sack from the Cleveland 1 late in the fourth quarter when he was trying to extend his streak of games with 3 touchdown passes.

That’s why I criticize Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts for taking the easy option on the Tush Push instead of being asked to make a throw down there in a confined space. You never know what might happen, but Burrow didn’t even get a pass off here. I’m not saying the sneak isn’t the percentage play, but it’s not something we should be giving excessive credit to for the quarterback.

But Burrow got the ball back and extended his streak anyway after Myles Garrett jumped offside and Burrow went hunting for that streak on a deep throw to Ja’Marr Chase, who came down with the touchdown to make it 24-6.

But it’s all for naught if the Broncos come into Cincinnati next week and win in a de-facto playoff game. That’s going to be the biggest Cincinnati game of the last two seasons.

49ers at Dolphins: From Losing to the Chiefs in the Playoffs to 6-8 Starts

The 49ers were eliminated from the playoffs before this one kicked off in the late window. While I was watching it on RedZone and the 49ers were trailing 19-10, it hit me seeing these teams with 6-8 records after they were both in the playoffs as two of the teams the Chiefs beat that had better than +100 point differentials in 2023. What a difference a year makes for these motion merchants.

I also find myself again scoffing at the injury excuses for the 49ers, who lost again here , when you still see a roster with Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, Leonard Floyd, Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, Fred Warner, etc. You really need more than that to not lose by 12 points to the paper tiger Dolphins?

But I digress. Jake Moody being a terrible kicker is one major roster flaw as he missed a 41-yard kick in this game that wasted a third quarter drive. But late in a 22-17 game, it was pressure on Purdy that led to a bad interception and the Dolphins put it away with a long Achane touchdown run they didn’t necessarily need as the game is over if he goes down at any point inside the 40.

But hey, run it up and celebrate something as the Dolphins (7-8) are technically not eliminated yet. It’s the 49ers who are toast.

Titans at Colts: The Almost Epic Comeback of the Year  

It was only two years ago when the Colts blew a 33-0 lead to the Vikings. This time, they were up 38-7 on the Titans with 6:50 to go in the third quarter thanks to some huge touchdown runs by Jonathan Taylor, who secured the ball this week. But the Titans marched on three straight touchdown drives behind Mason Rudolph, and this was suddenly a game again at 38-30 with 2:53 left. The Titans converted a pair of 2-point conversions.

The Colts only threw 10 passes at this point, but Anthony Richardson did at least deliver an accurate throw on his 11th attempt to convert a 3rd-and-8 at the 2-minute warning, or else we might have seen a real attempt at this 31-point comeback, a true rarity in NFL history.

But by the time the Titans got the ball back, there were just 3 seconds left and they were 89 yards away from the end zone while still needing another conversion just to force overtime. Rudolph threw one of the most charitable interceptions you’ll ever see to finally end it. But what a weird finish and game overall.

The Colts (7-8) are still kicking and have a real shot at finishing 9-8 again while still missing the playoffs.

Giants at Falcons: Penix Will Always Remember His First

I hope someone pulled rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. aside after his first NFL start and win and reminded him they won’t all be this easy. You can’t count on your defense intercepting two passes for touchdowns from a quarterback like Drew Lock every week. Those returns were even longer than any offensive play the Falcons had as their longest gain was 22 yards.

But it was a 34-7 blowout, Penix didn’t take any sacks, his first interception was 100% on Kyle Pitts, and you can’t really argue with the results. But we’ll see how he does against Jayden Daniels next Sunday night as the Falcons now control their own destiny for the NFC South again.

Jaguars at Raiders: Vegas Wins (Sorta?)

The Raiders ended their 10-game losing streak with a rare comeback win against exactly the caliber of team you’d expect them to finally beat in the Jaguars. It was watching a coach (Antonio Pierce) with a 1-10 record at 4QC attempts against a quarterback (Mac Jones) with a 3-15 record in such games, so something had to give.

In the end, it was the Raiders getting the win, but is it really a win when you give the Giants (2-13) a clear path to the No. 1 pick in the draft now? Not that there’s a huge quarterback prize waiting for them in April if the draft experts are to be trusted, but the Raiders probably aren’t going to control the top of the draft now.

Next week: Five game days from Wednesday-Monday. I think we’re peaking early again on Christmas, and I also think it’s going to be the Chiefs and Ravens winning again like Saturday. Seahawks-Bears is Thursday night, so we’ll see if the Bears can ever end this losing streak before 2025. The Saturday triple-header truly looks like a bad waste of my time on the couch, but I guess Broncos-Bengals is the highlight in the middle. That doesn’t leave much for Sunday, but Packers-Vikings is a good one, and SNF is Falcons-Commanders, which takes on new intrigue of course. Lions will try to destroy the 49ers on MNF to end the week in an NFC Championship Game rematch.

NFL 2024 Week 16 Predictions: Saturday Special Edition

We’ll find out if the NFL made a grave error in making the Chiefs, Texans, Steelers, and Ravens play on Saturday and again on Wednesday this Christmas. This was my main talking point in May when the schedule was released as I thought these games would decide everything from the MVP to the No. 1 seed.

In a way, they will, though the MVP race isn’t quite what I had in mind. But if Lamar Jackson has any shot, he’ll have to deliver against the Steelers for once in his career. We’re still waiting on that to happen and it’s Year 7.

But huge Saturday that has me more intrigued than Sunday for sure.

This Week’s Articles

Be sure to check out those Week 16 picks as I take my shot at the new YourWay bets at FanDuel, the most robust parlay options I’ve ever seen in sports betting. I tried a couple on TNF and almost got one if not for a touchdown scorer that failed. Very interesting stuff.

NFL Week 16 Predictions

I had the Chargers in a one-score game on Thursday night. I just didn’t think a fair catch free kick would be the key to a comeback win in that one.

HOU-KC: I had higher expectations for C.J. Stroud (my preseason MVP) in this one, but it’s still an important game and the drama is surrounding Patrick Mahomes’ ankle. Not an ideal opponent to face with the way the tackles are playing and the dominant pass rush the Texans have. But if you can get the pass off, there are a lot of plays to be had against this defense, and I think Mahomes gets the job done in the first of what will hopefully be many key Texans-Chiefs games in the AFC this decade.

PIT-BAL: I explained this in the Week 16 picks at 365Scores that it’s set up well for Lamar Jackson to finally notch a good victory over the Steelers, who won’t have George Pickens and T.J. Watt won’t be 100%.But I’m still taking Steelers ATS since that number went up to 7, and I know that no matter who is taking the field, it seems like these teams play a game decided by 1-to-4 points and neither team sniffing 24 points. Can’t say the defense won’t confuse Jackson again, but I still think the Ravens come through and save their shot at winning the AFC North. But it’s the biggest Ravens-Steelers game in 8 years.

CLE-CIN: Kevin Stefanski sucks for benching Jameis Winston against a defense that he could literally throw for 500 yards against. Yeah, it might come with 5 INTs, but you still take that risk. DTR is going to make this look like Watson was starting, and I expect that to help the Bengals win another game.

CAR-ARI: I don’t like Kyler Murray’s “shit” answer to playing in 35 degree weather. I’ll take the Panthers to cover just to hedge the bet, because you can never trust Arizona. But that offense should do well and I actually expect Trey McBride to finally score a touchdown catch.

PHI-WAS: Best game Sunday, but I wish I had more data or trust in what Jayden Daniels brings to the table with this team to make a stronger pick here. He really struggled in the first matchup and I think the ribs and short week played a factor. I expect better here, but the Eagles still have the better roster on both sides of the ball.

NYG-ATL: Another game where we’re going in blind with Drew Lock vs. Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. I’ll just take the Giants to lose a close one. Falcons should spam the running game here and not ask Penix to do a ton.

TEN-IND: It took a comeback by the Colts to get the first win over the Titans this season. My gut just says last week was a disaster in Denver, the Colts are finished, and Mason Rudolph is an improvement over Will Levis. Give me the Titans in an upset.

DET-CHI: Was the 2nd half on Thanksgiving fool’s gold? The Bears could have easily won that game, and the Lions have lost even more players to injury since. You also have to be wary of Jared Goff in a matchup like this after he turned it over 3x in a road December loss in Chicago last year. I’ll cautiously take Detroit to win but not cover.

LAR-NYJ: Another game where I’m just going with the underdog at home in a non-conference matchup as Aaron Rodgers waits until it’s entirely too late to start putting up numbers and wins.

MIN-SEA: I think the Vikings are one of the best teams in the league and they will produce on offense while getting after Geno Smith or whoever plays QB for Seattle.

NE-BUF: Less of a trap game at home for Buffalo than if it was on the road, but I think a 31-17 final that still means NE covered is very possible. I’m willing to give Drake Maye some points against the team that’s allowed 42+ in back-to-back games. This is a poor NE defense though.

SF-MIA: Two irrelevant teams right now. I’ll take the mentor (Shanahan) over the student (McDaniel).

JAX-LV: Tank for Travis Bowl? I think the Jaguars take the win as the Raiders look finished.

TB-DAL: Cowboys have been playing better ball lately, but I think Tampa Bay is close to being a complete team that can hang with anyone. I like them to cover here as explained in detail in the above link’s preview.

NO-GB: Tempted to take the Saints as I hate these huge spreads, but the Packers have been lighting it up pretty good lately on offense with Jordan Love, and I think they’ll look good at home Monday night. Could be another 30-13 type of game for them.

NFL 2024 Week 15 Predictions: The Gauntlet Begins Edition

The bye weeks are all finished for the 2024 NFL season, so it’s back to 16-game slates for the last month. But Week 15 marks the beginning of the gauntlet I’ve been talking about since May when the schedule came out. For reasons I’m sure are stupid, the league has four major AFC contenders (Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens, Texans) all playing three games 10 days apart from December 15 – December 25. They’ll all play Sunday, then they’re in action against each other next Saturday (12/21), then they’ll be playing on Christmas that Wednesday.

The winner here is really Buffalo, which had a late bye and doesn’t have to deal with this nonsense. I don’t know what the NFL was thinking other than dollars with Saturday and Wednesday island games over the holidays with contenders. But you’re just asking for players to get hurt here with such short recovery times, and some of these teams like the Chiefs had an early bye, so they really could use some rest here. Then when you have such important games and a physical game like Steelers-Ravens in the mix, it’s just a terrible idea to do this.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 15 Predictions

Silly me for thinking the 49ers would salvage their season and not get swept by the Rams, or blow their 4th 4Q lead in a division game this season. They are done now.

WAS-NO: Got an inexperienced QB starting for the Saints, so that’s a wild card here. The spread might be a little high for Washington, but the bye week should have helped, they’ve blown some weak teams out this year, so I’m just going to roll with Jayden Daniels outscoring the Saints by 8+.

CIN-TEN: Could be a good underdog spot for Brian Callahan’s knowledge of the Bengals, but I just can’t bring myself to betting on the Titans and Will Levis after losing 10-6 last week to the Jags with Mac Jones. That’s beyond the pale.

MIA-HOU: Dolphins are really playing better football right now than Houston, but the Texans had their bye, they should still win the AFC South, and I’m just going to play the streak that this is the type of game Miami loses on the road every time.

KC-CLE: I like for Jameis to put up some big numbers, but will we actually see the KC defense get some picks this week? They’re dying for some regression there. But I wouldn’t bet on the spread here as much as I’d take the best bet this year: Chiefs by 1-13 points. But KC better have answers for blocking Myles Garrett, who is coming for his 100th sack. That’s a good defensive prop pick to bet on here.

DAL-CAR: Been a few seasons since the Panthers were favored. I’m going to trust them too since I think it’s been a month of impressive football given where this team was to start the year. Bryce Young is better than Cooper Rush, and I’m going to trust Xavier Legette, who is hilarious to listen to, making up for last week’s drop with a big play.

NYJ-JAX: Again, Aaron Rodgers should probably just retire on the spot if he can’t beat the 3-10 Jags with Mac Jones. But we’ve been burned before on the Jets this year.

BAL-NYG: I see a 30-14 type of game here, which will piss off the Baltimore -16.5 bettors. But this is the biggest spread of the season so far.

IND-DEN: Fine with eating crow on this one but I just think a rested Denver pass defense is going to make Anthony Richardson look terrible, and the Broncos should have a varied attack against that defense in a comfortable cover.

NE-ARI: Naming defenders on these teams is a tough task. I think Drake Maye could keep it close again, but I’m taking the Cards to end their 3-game losing streak.

TB-LAC: Could be one of Sunday’s best games. I’m going to assume and hope that Ladd McConkey is playing, which is why I like the Chargers at home. Just think the defense can get more takeaways out of Baker Mayfield and the Chargers will win the turnover battle while keeping that offense in check.

PIT-PHI: If Bryce Young could nearly (and should have) beat the Eagles in Philly, what’s stopping Russell Wilson? Well, I wanted to take the Steelers ATS here, but the lack of George Pickens is huge in a matchup like this against a strong defense and potent offense. You can get away without Pickens against Cleveland at home but it’s a different story here. I also see the Eagles perking up with their passing game after rumblings from their WRs that they aren’t getting enough targets. Basically, I think the Steelers blow this game off as it doesn’t really matter. Just win next Saturday in Baltimore and you’re the AFC North champions. Nothing that happens this Sunday changes that fact that next Saturday is the big one.

BUF-DET: Super Bowl preview? It could be. I’ve bounced back and forth on this one. Ultimately, I think the Lions are due for a loss after barely getting by the Bears and Packers in the division. Unfamiliar opponent here. Lots of injuries on defense too, and we’ve seen the Lions really struggle to stop teams from scoring after good starts to their last two games. I think Josh Allen will have a good game and Jared Goff might make a late mistake or Dan Campbell’s 4th down gamble backfires this time and the Bills win by 1-to-6 points.

GB-SEA: I think the Packers are the better team with the better quarterback, experienced coach, and Geno Smith likely won’t go back-to-back games without a sack or turnover. But it could be a good one Sunday night.

CHI-MIN: Crazy comeback by the Bears last time to force overtime and give the Vikings a scare. Minnesota’s been playing tight games but I think it can open up a big lead and score on this Chicago team with Sam Darnold playing arguably his best ball all year right now.

ATL-LV: Seriously, how do you pick a MNF doubleheader this shitty? I don’t really care to watch either game. But it would be a disaster for Kirk Cousins to get outplayed by Desmond Ridder of all people. He has to come through here and get Atlanta back on track. If not, then they might as well turn things over to Penix.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 13

Week 13 started with a lot of close NFL finishes on the holidays, but it carried over to Sunday too. A whopping 12 of the 15 games this week have been decided by 1-to-7 points with MNF pending. A few were artificially close, but there were 9 games with a comeback opportunity and we saw six game-winning drives this week.

This has felt like the week where people started picturing a Championship Sunday with Eagles-Lions and Bills-Chiefs. Maybe it ends up that way, but the one thing I’m sure of is we’ll get a new NFC champion as the 49ers are more cooked than your turkey was.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Eagles at Ravens: Best Philadelphia Win in Two Years

I have to give the Eagles (10-2) credit for what I’d call their best win in the last two seasons. They may be playing defense better than anybody since Week 6, they got this one done in Baltimore against a quarterback who was 23-1 against the NFC, and they didn’t have Darius Slay, DeVonta Smith, and they lost some defensive backs during the game too and still were up 24-12 late.

Oh, they also spotted the Ravens a 9-0 lead, which usually leads to an avalanche. But the Eagles shook off the bad start and hung in there.

However, I don’t want to give the offense too much credit since it managed just 252 yards, 4-of-12 on third down, and they didn’t even have any takeaways or long returns to produce some hidden yards in those numbers. It was a bit bland on that side of the ball, but Saquon Barkley was dominant down the stretch, and if any award was decided in this game, I’d say Barkley is inching closer to lock territory for Offensive Player of the Year. Derrick Henry may have blown his shot with no touchdowns in consecutive games and Barkley getting the push in this head-to-head matchup that wasn’t a grand offensive display by any means.

But let’s also just be honest. The Eagles sat back and watched the Ravens do what they do best this year: Beat themselves. They kept the penalties to a minimum this time, but the deterioration of Justin Tucker is getting so bad that you honestly have to consider if it’s time to say goodbye. He’s missed a career-high 10 kicks this season (with 5 games to go) and that includes 3 more in this game. They weren’t Herculean tasks either from 47 and 53 yards, and he started downhill by missing an extra point in the first quarter.

Somehow, this game had 5 fumbles and all were recovered by the team who fumbled, so no turnovers. Lamar Jackson played like someone dying to turn it over with a fumble on an unforced error that killed a drive, then he could have easily been picked on a fourth-down throw in the fourth quarter that fell incomplete (probably better for Philly’s field position). But he wasn’t impressive like he was a year ago against a Vic Fangio defense from Miami.

But Jackson’s success rate in the fourth quarter was 1-for-7 on drives where it was a 14-12 and 21-12 game, so that’s not going to help his MVP case for the team’s fifth loss this year. He also took a huge sack on the play before Tucker missed his 47-yard field goal, and had three straight failed dropbacks before the next missed field goal in the third quarter.

But if you wanted to show one play that sums up this game, just look at the way rookie corner Cooper DeJean tackled Derrick Henry for a 3-yard gain on a 3rd-and-11 in a 21-12 game:

https://twitter.com/_MLFootball/status/1863374958258270292/history

Henry’s OPOY case may have died on that snap. The Ravens got the ball back with 63 seconds left in a 24-12 game and were able to get a touchdown with just 3 seconds left. It had a bit of a garbage time feel to it, especially with Jackson running for 39 yards against a defense that thought maybe a flag was thrown. But that put 19 points on the board. Just keeping it at 12 would have given them a better shot of not setting their season low in the playoffs for the fifth-straight time under Jackson.

But the fact is the Ravens are now 8-5 and facing a stronger likelihood of taking the wild card route in January. They could also end up inevitably facing Pittsburgh in the wild card, and at this point, I’m not sure if it matters all that much if the game is played in Pittsburgh or Baltimore. It’s still going to be Ravens-Steelers, and lately, that’s not good for Baltimore winning.

But it’s a very good win for the Eagles as the defense should feel some real confidence if it has to play a team like Detroit or Buffalo in a big playoff game this year.

It was still a “yikes” day from Tucker though…

Steelers at Bengals: Shootout of the Year (with a Predictable Winner)

The Bengals insisted all September that they were still the team to beat in the AFC, and yet here we are with the team at 4-8, likely not going to the playoffs for the second year in a row, and it’s another loss to Pittsburgh that could effectively be the final nail. Doing it in Cincinnati is just the cherry on top as the Steelers travel there so well like they did in the playoffs in 2005 and 2015 when they ended those dream seasons for the Bengals.

But they’ve done it to the Bengals in the regular season for a couple of decades too. I said the offense has always perked up against Lou Anarumo’s defense even in the Matt Canada era, and they were really special on Sunday with the first game for Arthur Smith and Russell Wilson.

It got off to a terrible start with George Pickens getting dragged down by the helmet, and it leading to a pick-six for the Bengals. It wasn’t DPI since the ball wasn’t in the air yet. It wasn’t illegal contact since it was within 5 yards. I guess they could have called illegal hands to the face, but I still put that more on Pickens for being soft on the play, and then he of course didn’t even try to make a tackle, choosing to complain to the ref for a flag.

But I didn’t imagine Russell Wilson would have the best game by a Pittsburgh quarterback since vintage Ben Roethlisberger after that start. It’s the most encouraged I’ve felt about a Pittsburgh offensive game in years, because they showed things that were different this week. They saw the complaints and flaws in Cleveland that the offense relies on too many deep shots, Wilson is getting too much heat, and they need to find a more consistent offense that can hit layups too.

Well, they did that Sunday. They attacked the Bengals repeatedly over the middle on short, quick throws to the running backs. Najee Harris got so many catches on one drive that he had to get oxygen in the first quarter. Better get used to it, because the Steelers may actually be using the middle of the field a little more going forward. But they definitely liked what they saw on tape against the Bengals, and Wilson was very accurate and decisive with the ball. He only took 2 sacks, and he finished 29-of-38 for 414 yards and 3 touchdowns, his second-highest passing yardage total in his career.

Wilson got to over 250 yards by halftime when Joe Burrow had just 100 yards. That doesn’t mean the defense was playing great, because they gave up way too many penalties on Joey Porter Jr., and they relied on a couple of splash plays to get 3 takeaways from Burrow, including two strip-sacks. The big one came in the fourth quarter when it was returned for a touchdown to take a 41-24 lead with 11:06 left.

But the Steelers played abysmal defense the rest of the way, and again, Porter Jr. was a main culprit as he is too grabby with receivers and got flagged for DPI in the end zone. On the last drive, he dropped a pick in the end zone that would have sealed the win, but Burrow instead got another touchdown pass. Keep in mind, that drive happened so fast because of a 49-yard pass to a wide-open Ja’Marr Chase with a blocker in front of him.

It really looked like the Steelers might blow a 17-point lead to one of the worst comeback teams in the league. Even the offense was blowing the situation as a holding penalty on a 2nd-down run stopped the clock with 1:54 left. That means if the Bengals could stop a 3rd-and-4, Burrow would get over a minute to score a touchdown unless Chris Boswell could nail a very long field goal (58 yards or so).

The Steelers put Justin Fields into the game for the first time, and you had to expect a run from him. Everyone should have saw that coming, and yet, he did exactly that and it still converted for a 7-yard gain. He even did the slide properly this time instead of coming up short to extend the game. But that’s a wrap in a 44-38 game, the highest-scoring game this season, no one expected.

At the same time, I feel much better about Pittsburgh’s chances to keep up in January if they have to outscore the likes of the Bills or Chiefs. But I also feel even worse that the defense is going to get destroyed like it has in every single playoff game since the 2017 season. Even with some of their best front seven players creating 4 sacks and 2 fumbles, this defense still allowed 31 points. That’s poor.

But after the first loss with Wilson to Cleveland last week, I can’t imagine anyone will still question the move from Fields to him after this game. Wilson was in vintage form in this one.

49ers at Bills: San Francisco Melts in the Snow

This is exactly why you shouldn’t trust a warm-weather team playing in the snowy elements of Buffalo in a game like this. Yes, the 49ers didn’t have Trent Williams and Nick Bosa, but Brock Purdy returned, and there are still a lot of really talented players on both sides of the ball with a coach who is supposed to be a genius.

Yet the 49ers turned in a lifeless, mistake-heavy performance in another 35-10 rout that has dropped them to 5-7, and they may not recover from this one. They also lost Christian McCaffrey again, and with the way he pulled up on his own, we may not see him again until 2025.

But even without Williams, there were running lanes to be found as both defenses struggled to get traction on the field that was quickly covered with snow that started just before kickoff. That also slows down the pass rush, so even Bosa might not have been that huge in a game like this against a quarterback as hard to sack like Allen.

But the fact is Allen took a backseat on this night where he only had to throw 17 passes. The running backs picked up just a hair under 200 yards as James Cook even broke a 65-yard touchdown on a 1-play drive. The Bills opened this game up in the third quarter when the 49ers blew their shot to make this competitive at 21-3 when Kyle Juszczyk fumbled at the goal line as the team struggled with ball security all night and just looked generally unprepared.

Meanwhile, the Bills have a player like Mack Hollins walking to the stadium barefoot, and he caught a touchdown in this game. But the final nail in the coffin was when Allen threw an off-target pass to Amari Cooper, who fought with the defense before pitching a lateral to Allen, who dove for the score, essentially completing a touchdown pass to himself (but no reception credit). That made it 28-3 and that was a wrap as Purdy couldn’t even throw for 100 yards to his more talented receivers. Purdy even fumbled on an unforced error to set up a short field for Buffalo’s last touchdown.

It looks like the 49ers are going out sad, and while Kyle Shanahan may deserve an injury excuse for missing the playoffs this year, you can’t tell me 38-10 and 35-10 in consecutive weeks with these types of performances is not worth criticizing given the star power still on the field.

Texans at Jaguars: Houston’s Not Beating the Allegations

Why is it even when the Texans win there still feels like a loser quality to it? This game was marred by the cheap hit by Azeez Al-Shaair that gave Trevor Lawrence a concussion, which led to him posturing on the field in a scary scene.

I say suspend his ass, because that looked very intentional, and apparently he’s got a history of being a dirty player.

But guess what? Even though the Texans were up 23-6 with 12:00 left and Mac Jones, one of the worst comeback quarterbacks in NFL history, was in the game, the Jaguars still made Houston sweat for the win. Jones led back-to-back touchdown drives to make it 23-20 with 3:31 left, a bad trend that’s happened multiple times to the Texans this year.

Fortunately, they kept the ball on the ground with Joe Mixon, who was able to hit the big runs to get the last few first downs to put the game away. But I want to see what the league does to Al-Shaair. All these little penalties and fines that are supposed to protect the quarterbacks but don’t actually stop the hits from still happening. Let’s see some real punishment like docking him his last 5 game checks this year.

Chargers at Falcons: Kirk Cousins Is a Tampa Bay Defense Merchant This Year

Man, Kirk Cousins played the Tampa Bay defense twice this year as if his family’s lives depended on him being great. He threw 8 touchdowns to one pick in those games, he had the 500-yard game, and his 276 yards in the rematch was also his third-highest yardage game with the Falcons.

I don’t want to act like those are his only big games this year as he shredded the weak Cowboys’ defense, and he had that good comeback moment in Philadelphia. But the Tampa Bay games are definitely building up his season stats, especially after he threw 4 picks in a rough 17-13 loss at home to the Chargers here.

Cousins was picked on 3-of-4 drives to end this game, which was always within reach. One of Cousins’ picks was returned for a touchdown in the third quarter, which is how the Chargers took the lead for good.

I thought Justin Herbert would have a big passing game with J.K. Dobbins out, but he threw for just 147 yards on 23 attempts, and Ladd McConkey had 117 of those yards in a huge game for the rookie. But it’s not like the running game stepped up for Herbert. It produced 12 carries for 55 yards for him.

The defense led the way here as the offense only had 187 yards. Meanwhile, the Falcons had 350 yards, but they were 3/14 on third down and the four picks. Definitely a winnable game that was thrown away by the Falcons.

Cardinals at Vikings: The 10-Win Team No One Is Talking About

The Vikings are now 10-2, winners of five straight, and it feels like no one talks about them because of the allure of the Lions and Packers in the same division. But they’ll get a rematch with those teams at the end of the season, they already won in Green Bay, and this division is far from decided.

Minnesota broke expectations again by being able to overcome a 19-6 deficit in the second half behind quarterback Sam Darnold, who continues to play well. He was sacked 5 times in this game, matched his leading rushers with 22 yards on the ground, but still drove 70 yards twice for critical touchdowns in a 23-22 comeback win.

Aaron Jones made up for another fumble by catching an open touchdown for the lead with 1:13 left. The Cardinals weren’t able to get a first down as it was not a great game for Kyler Murray, who was picked twice in the quarter, including a desperation play on 4th-and-10 to end it at 23-22. They only needed a field goal, but now Arizona (6-6) is second in the NFC West.

The Vikings could have what it takes to shake up what people are starting to bill as an inevitable championship game between the Lions and Eagles.

Seahawks at Jets: 41 and Done

Aaron Rodgers turns 41 today (Monday), and he looked every bit that age and more in Sunday’s latest loss to the Seahawks. Apparently, the Jets are the first team to be favored in 9-of-12 games and have a record as bad as 3-9 SU. They found a way to blow their fourth lead in the fourth quarter this season, but this game had a few critical turning points that largely went against the Jets.

Up 21-7 in the second quarter after a kickoff return for a touchdown, the Jets had a chance to really put the dagger through the Seahawks, who fumbled on the ensuing kickoff. But after Rodgers missed Garrett Wilson on a pass, the refs missed a delay of game, and Rodgers’ pass was intercepted by Leonard Williams, who rumbled his way for a 92-yard touchdown, reportedly the longest ever for a 300-pound player. That made it 21-13 in a situation where it looked like the Jets would go up 28-7.

The Jets never scored again. Breece Hall wasted a goal-line stand by fumbling, which led to a Seattle field goal to make it 21-19 in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks were later stuffed on a 4th-and-1 run that was negated by a horse collar penalty. They finished that drive with the go-ahead touchdown instead with 5:31 left, giving Rodgers plenty of time to get a touchdown in a 26-21 deficit.

But the drive was painfully slow, and things quickly went haywire after the 2-minute warning. Rodgers took a sack and faced a 4th-and-15. Naturally, his pass fell harmlessly incomplete to end the game. Rodgers finished 21-of-39 for 185 yards, which will drop his career-low YPA (6.4) this season even lower.

Big win for the Seahawks, who are 7-5 and in first place in the NFC West.

Colts at Patriots: Marathon Drive Produces Rare Win in New England

The Colts had not won in New England since 2006, a memory of better and far more relevant times for this team. For both teams, obviously. But the Colts had lost their last 7 trips to Gillette Stadium, so it is a welcome sign that Shane Steichen is now 2-0 against the Patriots after also beating them in Germany in 2023.

This game had more scoring, though it sure didn’t look like Anthony Richardson was going to surpass 100 passing yards for the longest time, and those fears about him only doing well on scripted drives came up again as he was having a mess of a game on drives that didn’t begin each half.

It looked like things were going New England’s way again once Drake Maye led a go-ahead drive for a touchdown to take a 24-17 lead, then corner Christian Gonzalez picked off Richardson with 7:59 left. That was lights out in the old days for the Patriots, but not anymore.

The Colts forced a three-and-out, and Richardson took over with 5:34 left and 80 yards to go. Old-school football. But it was mostly passing from Richardson until the Colts moved their 19-play march into the red zone, then he started getting more designed runs. After calling five straight runs, the Colts put the ballgame on 4th-and-3 on Richardson to make a throw on time, and he delivered with the touchdown to Alec Pierce with 12 seconds left.

That’s a solid situation to go for two, which the Colts also converted with Richardson powering his way in for the 25-24 lead. But we also have to reconsider this strategy with the way teams are setting up field goals anymore. Getting to start at the 30 is a huge bonus, and the Patriots still had timeouts. Even with a rookie quarterback and some low-level weapons, the Patriots managed to run 3 snaps in 11 seconds (hometown clock operator?) to move the ball 20 yards to midfield and at least give kicker Joey Slye a shot at a 68-yard field goal, which would be the longest in NFL history.

This is the same kicker who shanked a 67-yard field goal against the Chiefs in 2020 when he was with Carolina. He’s also a kicker who blew a 25-yard field goal earlier in this game, but from 68, he was straight down the middle. It just came up a yard or two short.

That would have been an amazing kick, and it does make you want to think twice about 12 seconds being long enough to avoid a finish like this when you go for two. But I guess if you don’t think you can win in overtime, this is what you do.

I’m still not convinced Richardson is the real deal for the Colts, who are hanging in the playoff hunt at 6-7, but at least this drive and the one against the Jets are encouraging.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Bryce Young Did His Job Again

One of the more encouraging stories in the last month has been Bryce Young playing like an actual NFL quarterback. Has it been great? Not quite, but getting production out of him, getting him to score 20 points in four straight games, and seeing him deliver a few clutch drives is absolutely huge given he’s spent most of his career as someone who might not sniff 20 points in 3 weeks combined.

Frankly, he should have had this game won against Tampa Bay as a 5.5-point underdog, but they gave it away again. Young stepped up with a great 25-yard touchdown throw to Adam Thielen with 30 seconds left to take a 23-20 lead. But in today’s NFL with the kickoff putting teams at the 30 and so many kickers capable of hitting from long distance, it’s really hard to defend that kind of lead. It’s not like the old days.

Sure enough, Baker Mayfield shrugged off a pretty poor game where he was hit hard multiple times, and he got his offense into field goal range with three productive completions and a scramble. See kids, you can fire off five scrimmage plays (plus the field goal) in 30 seconds if you have three timeouts.

Chase McLaughlin was good from 51 yards out to send the game to overtime. But he wasn’t good from 55 yards on the first drive of overtime, and I have to question the decision to kick that long attempt. First, it doesn’t win the game. It only gives you a lead and puts the opponent in that rare air of four-down football without a real time constraint.

Then it’s not like McLaughlin is a stud kicker. If he misses, you’re giving Carolina the ball at their 45, and a field goal wins the game for them. It’s 4th-and-7 at the Carolina 37, so you probably don’t want to go for it that far. I might just punt or try the hard count and punt there. Make Young drive a long field while being constrained to 3-down football.

The Bucs’ defense bailed out the rest of the team, because the Panthers looked like they were going to get a game-winning field goal after another brilliant catch from Theilen to the 34. But on the very next play, Chuba Hubbard was stripped on a great forced fumble by Nelson.

Bucky Irving had the huge day, but it was Rachaad White who put it away with a 38-yard run. McLaughlin was good from 30 yards away and the Bucs escaped with the 26-23 win to stay tied in the NFC South with Atlanta at 6-6 (tie-breaker still favors Atlanta).

A very close call that would have me worried the Bucs aren’t going to be good enough to run through this softer spot of the schedule after all to win the division. But it might not matter if the Falcons are going to keep playing the way they have against non-Tampa opponents.

Rams at Saints: The Drought Continues

One record streak ended and another streak continued in the Rams’ 21-14 road win over the Saints. First, I had no idea the Rams had an NFL-record 129 game streak of scoring in the first half. That ended with this one as they trailed 6-0 at the half, so that record is now within the sights of the Ravens, who are up to 124 games.

If you include playoff games, the Ravens just broke the record with a 102-game streak, surpassing the Rams (101 games). To the surprise of no one reading this, the Rams were shut out in the first half of Super Bowl 53 against the Patriots, so this technically wasn’t the first time a Sean McVay team did this. Just never in the regular season before Sunday.

At least they made up for it this time with three touchdown drives in the second half. But that left the door open for Derek Carr to finally lead the first fourth-quarter comeback win of his Saints’ career. He threw a perfect pass for a 28-yard touchdown to MVS, the savior of this receiving corps right now, and Dante Pettis (he’s still around?) caught the game-tying 2-point conversion to tie the game at 14.

But Stafford got on a hot streak and threw a touchdown to Puka Nacua to regain a 21-14 lead with 8:54 left. The Saints were putting together a drive that got very run heavy, and after losing Taysom Hill to an injury, they went to Alvin Kamara on three straight runs that brought up a 4th-and-3 at the LA 9 with just over a minute left as this drive was fixing to take up almost the last 9 minutes.

You can already sense the doom to come, and sure enough, Carr held the ball long enough for Jared Verse to get to him and force a game-sealing incompletion (nearly a strip-sack). I’m not sure anyone was open but Carr’s limited mobility hurts there as he had no chance to escape from Verse, who should be the DROY front-runner.

Guess the Saints will just have to wait another week to pull off a 4QC win.

Titans at Commanders: Early Knockout

Go figure. The Commanders struggled for the last three games on offense, and the Titans came into this game with the No. 1 defense in yards per drive allowed. Before you could blink it was 28-0 with the Commanders scoring four straight touchdowns to start the game. A couple were set up on short fields after the Titans fumbled twice, a problem for them this year.

But this was a nice bounce-back game for Jayden Daniels, who had 4 total touchdowns and worked on the short passing game to protect those ribs in a 42-19 win. The bye week comes at a great time to get healthy for the stretch run into the playoffs for this team. It’s still possible they could have that first 11-win season in the salary cap era.

Next week: It’s the last of the byes, so with six teams off, we’re peaking early with Packers-Lions on TNF. Should be a good one. I’ll be watching to see if the Steelers take the Browns more seriously this time in a game they really need to win if they want this division title with much tougher games to follow. Seattle-Arizona rematch is also in close timing with the first game, and that could go a long way in determining the NFC West winner. Chargers-Chiefs on SNF is bound to be interesting for obvious reasons. Monday night is just seeing if Cooper Rush can improve to 2-0 against Joe Burrow for two of the most disappointing teams in the league this year.  

NFL 2024 Week 13 Predictions: Running Back Showdown Edition

This has already been an eventful Week 13 in the NFL with four games over Thanksgiving and Black Friday that led to the firing of head coach Matt Eberflus, a move you just had to make after one of the worst cases of clock management in NFL history.

But Antonio Pierce is also one of the worst coaches in close games, and he showed us why against the Chiefs on Friday when his team had a chance to pull off its own shocking upset. Of course, the people who know nothing about the rule book are going to complain about illegal shift being a dead-ball foul (it’s not), pretend a whistle was blown before the KC player recovered the ball (it wasn’t), and harp on a ref signaling false start as if we’ve never seen a line judge get something wrong, a conference corrects it, and they ultimately got the right call. Maybe just don’t snap the ball early and choke next time? Hell of a time for the Chiefs to finally get a takeaway though. I might need to fire up Part 2 of the Manning vs. Brady LOAT series after that one.

But that’s why we love the NFL. On paper, the Lions and Chiefs had easy games to get to 11-1, and yet both needed the worst coaches in close games to fumble badly (or literally) with the game on the line just to get the wins. Meanwhile, Dolphins-Packers was supposed to be the best game on paper, but it had the lowest drama and was easily won by the Packers. Of course, it’s an easy call that a Mike McDaniel team will come up small on the road in a big game like that. He’s now lost 12 or 13 straight road games to playoff teams (13 if Seattle qualifies this year; 12 if only Buffalo and Green Bay do).

That’s their thing. As for Sunday, we still have the big one in the late afternoon with the Eagles and Ravens, a game that will matter a lot for the MVP and OPOY races as well as division races and seeding.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 13 Predictions

I guess trusting the Chiefs to win a game by 13 points is insanity or else I could have been off to a perfect 4-0 ATS start to the week. At least the Chiefs held a 13-point lead in the third quarter. They just blew it in a matter of minutes to Aidan O’Connell. Christ, where is this season heading? At least we know swapping in a different left tackle could fix that problem, but what do they do about the defense? They’re getting shredded by some of the worst quarterbacks in the league on throws outside the numbers and down the field.

Anyways…

LAC-ATL: Justin Herbert has a pair of 20-17 wins over the Falcons in his career, and that sounds about right for what the Chargers are in 2024. Atlanta has been tough to figure out too, but I think this game will inevitably be close. But with the Chargers losing to the Ravens and having the Chiefs next week, I just don’t see them losing three in a row under Harbaugh here.

IND-NE: I was going to say it feels like eons ago since the Colts beat the Patriots, but of course there was the Bailey Zappe fake spike INT in Germany last year in a 10-6 game. While I still don’t trust the Colts with Anthony Richardson, that NE defense is bad enough that he could have a good game here and I’m going to trust the defense to keep the score down enough.

HOU-JAX: I wouldn’t advise betting real money on the Texans right now. Just something off with that team in many ways right now, and they already struggled to get the first win over this Jacksonville team, which is getting Trevor Lawrence back. But if they can hold him under 60% completions again, that’s his formula for losing.

SEA-NYJ: Does anyone realize the Seahawks haven’t scored 21 points in any of their last four games? I think the Jets can get Geno to make some mistakes and pull this one off coming out of the bye week. As much as we want to pretend Aaron Rodgers is playing terrible football this year, he’s serviceable enough to still get a win in a 20-17 type of game. Just don’t count on his kicker to make the last field goal.

PIT-CIN: This is where Mike Tomlin prefers to be: Counted out as a road underdog while people still hype the 4-7 Bengals going on a run. Sure, it could happen, but I’m going to trust the Steelers to bounce back in better weather, the Bengals are the one defense they actually moved the ball on when Matt Canada was the OC, and I’ll always trust Russell Wilson over Joe Burrow in a tight game. T.J. Watt also has to make up for a no-show in Cleveland.

TEN-WAS: I’m hedging with Titans covering and Commanders winning (maybe). Will Levis has been hitting some deep balls and this is a defense you can do that against. Still, I’m not betting on Calvin Ridley, who is on the banned list.

ARI-MIN: Gut says the Vikings can hit big plays against Arizona’s underwhelming defense, and you never know what to expect from Kyler Murray. Avoid a Sam Darnold pick parade and the Vikings should have this one, something you can say about most of their games this year.

TB-CAR: Panthers are playing better and you hate to trust any spread this big for the road team in a divisional game these days. But I think Mike Evans returns to the end zone and Bucky Irving has a good game. They won’t make Bryce Young look as good as the Chiefs did last week.

LAR-NO: Again, I’m going to keep taking the Saints in small spreads like this at home where they’re an underdog to a team that just got destroyed by Saquon Barkley. Imagine if Taysom Hill gashes them next. Plus, I’m still waiting for that first 4QC win for Carr in New Orleans. We have to get at least one in two seasons, right?

PHI-BAL: Here’s the big one with Lamar Jackson/Derrick Henry vs. Jalen Hurts/Saquon Barkley. I think you have to go with the Ravens at home as Lamar is 23-1 against the NFC, and Nick Sirianni hasn’t faced him yet. He played a Fangio defense last year (MIA) and threw 5 touchdowns. Threw for over 300 yards against Fangio’s Broncos too. Henry will be up for this one with the Barkley MVP hype that he hasn’t personally received this year. Also a bad week for Eagles to not have Darius Slay (concussion) and may not have DeVonta Smith either. We can say the Eagles are playing better defense than Baltimore this year, and I might trust Hurts more than Lamar at closing the game, but I don’t think you can bet against the Ravens at home in this one. Eagles have been beating up on non-playoff teams during this win streak.

SF-BUF: The SNF game that could have been epic, but we’ll see with these SF injuries. It does sound like Brock Purdy might play, so that’s a good thing. But the Bills are not a team that likes to win close, and they already have a 9-point win over the Chiefs this year. I think they can win by a touchdown here and drop the 49ers to 5-7. But hopefully the 49ers play with some real urgency in this one. Their playoff hopes are slipping every week and their blown leads have arguably more to do with that than the injuries, which have been terrible as well.

CLE-DEN: Not a great game to close the week. But I think Jameis can make enough throws to keep it close or get the backdoor cover.

NFL 2024 Week 12 Predictions: Harbaugh Bowl Edition

I feel some deja vu as it’s another weekend, I’m writing these predictions late at night, and my nose has been running since Thursday night. I went through the same thing for months last year where I often felt sick around the weekends and seemingly always tried to rush through these predictions.

So, I’m doing it again here, but I did just drop a 4 AM rant on Twitter (fvck off, Elon) about YAC, the Chiefs, and NextGenStats’ YAC Over Expected (YACOE) stat. Figured I did the data the other day and it didn’t share it anywhere, so I might as well get it out there before Sunday’s games.

Anyways, not a lot of good games this weekend, so it’s actually Monday night, the Ravens-Chargers Harbaugh Bowl, that I’m looking forward to the most here.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 12 Predictions

Taking Steelers -3.5 was one of my dumbest picks of the year as I warned about this being a typical “Steelers play down to the competition and probably lose” games under Tomlin, who coached one of his worst games ever. I should have at least said Browns +3.5 since you knew even if the Steelers won, it’d be by a FG at best. But they blew it. Baltimore rejoices.

Vikings-Bears: Nothing would surprise me but I’m just going to be content with the Vikings being better on both sides of the ball. And of course I think Eberflus is one of the worst coaches in NFL history in close games.

Bucs-Giants: Again, I was on the Tommy DeVito bandwagon for showing up Daniel Jones this week in his first start against a TB defense that gives up a lot of yards. But I’m cooling off that once I read that Malik Nabers missed Friday’s practice with a groin injury. That’s not good news for this passing game.

Patriots-Dolphins: I think Tua Tagovailoa will go to 7-0 against the Patriots, but I also think Drake Maye can keep it close enough for a cover against that defense.

Titans-Texans: Another division game, I just think the Texans can start rolling offensively with Collins and Mixon together, and I like the defense to sack Will Levis 5+ times and force some turnovers too.

Cowboys-Commanders: Yep, division games can be tricky, but I just think the Cowboys are mailing it in, Cooper Rush is trash, and Jayden Daniels will look sharper with a few extra days to rest since TNF last week. They’ve blown out several teams already this year too.

Chiefs-Panthers: The Chiefs haven’t really blown anyone out since Chicago last year, the Taylor Swift debut game. Sure, it should happen in Carolina, but with the way Chuba is running it, the way the Chiefs have played some spotty defense the last month, and the way the offense is always good for a mistake to deny itself points — throw in the backdoor cover too — and I’m still going with the classic Chiefs win but don’t cover.

Lions-Colts: I see potential for a 30-20 game where Anthony Richardson makes plays but just can’t keep up with that Detroit machine in the end.

Broncos-Raiders: Okay, that’s 7 division games this week. The Raiders were unbeatable for the Broncos in 2020-23, but I think Denver pulls off the sweep here. It was 34-18 last time and Bo Nix is playing with more confidence now.

49ers-Packers: I was so tempted to take SF +5.5, but it’s not just Brock Purdy being replaced by Brandon Allen. Nick Bosa is banged up and out too. I think even Trent Williams has something going on this week, so it truly is an injury-ravaged season for the 49ers at 5-5, and a game like this could squash them for the wild card, leaving the NFC West title as their only playoff path. Bad timing for a Purdy injury. Of course, a Jordan Love pick parade can turn this one in SF’s favor, but I think he protects the ball and makes up for the playoff loss the best he can with a win here.

Cardinals-Seahawks: Could actually turn out to be the best game or at least the best 4Q on Sunday. Late slate anyway. I’m going to take Seattle at home to edge them out with perhaps another GWD by Geno. That’s how these games have gone in the NFC West this year. Someone makes a 4QC. But both are capable and I’m not surprised it’s the smallest spread of the week.

Eagles-Rams: Saw some splits that made me want to take the Rams, but I just think the Eagles have too many weapons for this bland defense to stop, and the Eagles have the secondary this year to deal with Nacua and Kupp better. Even last year they shut them out after halftime with that bad Philly defense.

Ravens-Chargers: Read my Week 12 picks for a parlay and game script for this one. I think the Ravens make up for last week and get a win in a 23-20 or 27-24 type of game, and I think a little Chargering returns to completion this time on the other side after nearly giving it up to the Bengals last week. But it should be a good one.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 11

I hyped Week 11 as the best Sunday in the NFL this season, and it mostly delivered on that front. The three biggest games were all within one score in the fourth quarter, and it was certainly a pivotal day as Kansas City’s 15-game winning streak ended, and there’s a very good chance the Bills won’t have to worry about going on the road in the playoffs to play teams they’ve lost to like the Ravens and Texans.

But it was a strong week for home-field advantage in big games as the Eagles (Thursday night), Steelers, Bills, and Chargers all won at home in their key matchups. I know home-field advantage is only around 53% this season, which is better than the pandemic years, but it’s still below the usual standard of 57-58%. But I do think you’d still rather be at home than not, and I think it’s especially important for these teams still trying to break through the Kansas City stranglehold in the AFC and get to the Super Bowl like the Ravens, Bills, Steelers, etc.

We had eight games with a comeback opportunity, no team has come back from a 10-point deficit to win this week, but God knows the Chargers tried to give one away. We also had a walk-off blocked field goal for the second week in a row, so that’s wild. Pretty bad week for some kickers who were very recently considered among the best in the league, including Jake Elliott (Eagles), Justin Tucker (Ravens), and Evan McPherson (Bengals).

Still one game to go Monday night, but I think a healthier Houston team does give the AFC a legitimate six-team race for the playoffs. Kansas City’s three-peat path has gotten harder. But on the bright side, they can forget the undefeated talk. They weren’t going to win 26 games in a row to get a three-peat, and while that would be the ultimate achievement in NFL history, I can’t even imagine the pressure that’d leave on the team each week. Plus, they may not have to worry about trying to win in Denver in Week 18 against a Sean Payton (Mr. Bountygate) team that might need to make the playoffs with a win.

But really, this season might just come down to seeing if anyone can make the Lions pay for a Jared Goff pick parade by scoring enough points to beat Detroit in the Super Bowl.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Bills: Mahomes vs. Allen Chapter VIII – Josh Takes Manhattan

The first Kansas City loss since last Christmas is sure to delight many, but I’m not sure it makes that big of an impact on the season. No magical “blueprint” was shown on how to beat the Chiefs, and if it was, hardly any team but Buffalo is equipped to execute it. And I’m not convinced Buffalo can win this game in January, which could still very well be in Arrowhead as the Chiefs are still in first place, the same way it did here.

I’ll get to the Chiefs later, but let’s start by focusing on what Buffalo did well. They clearly care a lot about this rivalry, and we’ve joked (while probably being accurate) that Kansas City has been their Super Bowl in the regular season for four years now. Maybe five if you count the first meeting back in 2020.

But they clearly played a sharp game, and I think Josh Allen has seen Steve Spagnuolo’s defense and blitzes so much every year that he’s an expert at picking them apart. He knows when to run, when to get rid of it quickly, and when to hold it for the big play. That doesn’t mean he always executes, but he didn’t take a sack in this game, and he was money on a lot of big third downs, which is usually a must to beat the Chiefs. Buffalo was 9-of-15 on third down and that doesn’t include a huge penalty on a third-and-9 late in the third quarter on a drive that led to a touchdown and 23-14 lead.

But you saw Amari Cooper chip in a 30-yard one-handed catch on the first third down. Khalil Shakir held onto a clutch 3rd-and-8 pass even when he took a big shot at the end of it. Curtis Samuel played well as they got a touchdown on a pick play. The running backs couldn’t really get anywhere, but when it was 4th-and-2 at the Kansas City 26 with 2:27 left in a 23-21 game, there was never any doubt the Bills were going for it and who they were going to let make the play. Allen took off for 26 yards, and while I’m not sure I agree with Jim Nantz that it’s the play of the year, it’s a candidate as he finished the play for a touchdown to make it 30-21 with 2:17 left.

As I expected after another Lamar egg in Pittsburgh, Allen’s performance has him as the new MVP favorite (+150 at FanDuel) as the Bills go into their bye week. It was hardly his best game against the Chiefs as I’m sure he’d like to have the interception on a fourth down back, but he scored 30 points on 9 drives against a team that hadn’t given up more than 27 points in the last 30 games. That streak is toast as are many for the Chiefs.

It’s the first loss for the Chiefs since Christmas 2023, but every Kansas City loss is Christmas for members of the Tom Brady cult who have nothing else to celebrate these days. I just want to highlight one of them from Twitter here by explaining in detail why I think it’s silly to pin this loss on the quarterback as the Chiefs have far more pressing issues.

First, there’s a reason Mahomes had a decent 63.3 QBR in this game despite throwing two interceptions and not registering a single rush attempt when we know QB runs inflate QBR more than anything.

It’s because Mahomes didn’t make many mistakes in this game.

Yep, he was intercepted on his first dropback of the day, a bad decision to force a throw instead of taking a sack. But like half of his picks this year, it came early with the maximum time to make up for it.

But this would be the 7th game this season where the Chiefs only had 8 or 9 offensive possessions in a game, so it does make every turnover mean a little more when you just don’t get that many chances with the ball because of the way you play ball-control offense and the way the defense isn’t as good at getting stops (turnovers or otherwise) as people pretend.

A problem not going away for the Chiefs that could ultimately lead to their undoing is the offensive tackle play. That led to some sacks and pressure in this game, which ended their second drive too. But Mahomes threw a touchdown to Xavier Worthy, who had a huge first quarter. However, instead of this being the turning point game for him, he did the same thing he did against Tampa Bay and didn’t get his feet in on what should have been a 30-yard play. Could the throw have been a little better? Yes, but it was in bounds enough that a competent receiver makes the catch. This can’t keep happening, and that killed another drive as the pressure came afterwards for another 3-and-out.

Mahomes followed Allen’s pick with a touchdown drive on a short field, but his defense still gave up a field goal to trail 16-14 at halftime. There was no scoring in the third quarter, but someone please let me know where I’m supposed to be criticizing Mahomes.

The Chiefs only had the ball four times after halftime. Was it Mahomes who got stuffed on a 3rd-and-1 run for another three-and-out? No, that was Kareen Hunt and the line. When Mahomes set up a 3rd-and-1 at midfield on a scramble, a holding penalty brought it back to 2nd-and-14, DeAndre Hopkins couldn’t come down with a good throw while being defended well, and that was another punt. I think without the holding penalty, Mahomes probably has a great shot of leading a go-ahead drive on this one.

Suddenly, the game’s in the fourth quarter and the Chiefs are down 23-14. Mahomes put together one of the team’s best drives this season as they never even faced a third down, avoided any penalties, and he threw his third touchdown to make it 23-21 with 7:53 left. Game on. Why they don’t play with urgency and tempo like that more often is beyond me.

But that’s usually the spot where the defense makes a play. Gets the ball back or at least holds them to a field goal. That’s also the spot where Allen usually makes some mistake like forcing deep balls when he shouldn’t, but none of that happened this time. He ran for a 26-yard touchdown on fourth down instead, and now it’s 30-21 with 2:17 and you need a miracle.

Again, I think Mahomes would have got a score (field goal or touchdown) here had it not been for yet another holding penalty to wipe out an 18-yard scramble to the Buffalo 34. Instead of converting, that made it 4th-and-13, and at that point you’re forcing a throw down the field to Kelce, who just stopped after one of the worst games of his career and watched the defender make the game-ending pick. But the game was already lost before that unless you think they’re recovering an onside kick and scoring again.

So, you tell me where I’m supposed to be finding so much fault on his play. A pick on the first play didn’t lose the game, and they were already losing by two scores when the last play happened. But I guess if you ignore every single thing in between those two plays, it was a pretty awful day for Mahomes.

A loss isn’t the worst thing in the world for a team that needs to be humbled sometimes. They have issues that need to be fixed. When the NBC crew did the halftime highlight for this game, all they mentioned was Mahomes’ weapons. Not a whiff about the offensive line or the defense not getting enough stops, especially with the game in the balance these last few weeks.

I actually think they have too many weapons in a way, and that Andy Reid is doing a poor job of trying to use everybody he can instead of finding who he can trust. A week ago against Denver, Kelce (8) and Hunt (7) had 15 catches between them. In this game, they had a combined 2 catches for 8 yards, and Hunt wasn’t even targeted. Oh, they still completed passes to 11 different receivers, including an eligible lineman, but I’m not sure that accomplished the right goals if Xavier Worthy is the only player who broke 30 receiving yards.

I’m not even sure bringing Pacheco and Hollywood Brown into the mix later is a good thing if they can’t seem to figure out how to properly use what they have. That touchdown drive in the fourth quarter showed how well they can still move the ball when they need to. They need to tap into that, because the days of an elite defense look to be over in Kansas City. Going to have to start scoring more points in games like this.

They don’t need an elite defense to win a Super Bowl, but they aren’t winning 34-30 games on the road in January with the way they’re playing this year. Last January, this defense was about to ruin the repeat by giving the Bills 24 points on just 5 drives. It took a couple of run stuffs and good fortune with Buffalo’s receivers not hauling in some deep balls to turn the tide that day, including a missed field goal by Tyler Bass.

On Sunday, the Bills didn’t make those mistakes, and Allen got the best of them again as he did in 2021, 2022, and 2023. We’ll see if it translates to January should they meet again. While the Chiefs will look different in that matchup, so will the Bills, and we’ll just have to see who makes the decisive plays that day.

Ravens at Steelers: The Rivalry Lives Up to the Hype

Sure, I liked the under, but this was even more on brand for Ravens-Steelers than I imagined. The 18-16 score is kind of Mike Tomlin’s jam as he won two playoff games (2015 Bengals and 2016 Chiefs) by that score, and this is third time in the last decade he’s won a game with six field goals and no touchdowns. The rest of the league has three in that time.

But you have to laugh at how these teams will play the same kind of “neither to 20, first to bleed loses” games no matter who the quarterbacks are and what their offenses are like. The Ravens had a high-flying offense this year and it didn’t matter. The Steelers were scoring a lot and moving the ball well under Russell Wilson and it didn’t matter.

These teams made each other fight for every yard, and it wasn’t pretty, but it was damn entertaining, and once again the Steelers made more plays. The Ravens started the game on the wrong foot with a Derrick Henry fumble, something you rarely see. Isaiah Likely also coughed up a bad fumble before halftime deep in his own end, Justin Tucker is apparently washed as he missed two makeable field goals, the Ravens had 12 penalties, and rookie linebacker Payton Wilson stole an interception from the hands of Justice Hill in the fourth quarter. The Ravens were incredibly sloppy in this game.

That’s not to say the Steelers were sharp. While they held the ball for over 36 minutes, they were 4-of-16 on third down and couldn’t finish in the end zone even once. While Russell Wilson threw a handful of passes away due to pressure, he picked the worst moment ever to force a terrible throw in the end zone, which was intercepted with 9:23 left when the Steelers could have kicked a short one to take an 18-10 lead. Fortunately, the Payton Wilson pick happened a few plays later and the Steelers eventually did go up 18-10. But this was Wilson’s worst game at quarterback this season, and it’s a good thing the defense had his back.

But on their 12th and final possession, the Ravens finally put together some third-down conversions and completions to wide receivers. The drive ended with a Zay Flowers touchdown with 1:06 left, but the Ravens needed a 2-point conversion to tie. You just knew they would keep the ball in Jackson’s hands, but it was still surprising to not see Henry on the field. I’m not sure the Ravens really knew what they were trying to do on the play, and Jackson was forced to throw it up for grabs before taking a sack:

Jackson is now 5-for-12 on 2-point conversions in the fourth quarter (2-for-8 when trailing) in his career. That’s why I would have liked to see them score in Kansas City on opening night since you know they were going to go for the victory with a 2PC, and you know they’d go to Jackson as they always do. But it’s hard to say their success rate is reassuring in these moments, and this reminded me of the 2021 game in Pittsburgh where T.J. Watt got to Jackson on the game-deciding 2PC in a 20-19 win for the Steelers.

But the game wasn’t over since the Ravens had all three timeouts left. The Steelers brought in Justin Fields on 2nd-and-9 and had a good call with the QB keeper, except he made an awful decision when he slid too early and was a yard short, bringing up 3rd-and-1 instead of clinching the win. That slide rule is something that coaches need to teach these quarterbacks better. It’s over once you start the sliding motion, and there was enough room for Fields to win the game there.

The Steelers had some major issues with 1 yard to go Sunday, but with the game on the line, they gave it to Najee Harris and he grinded it out for the win. The Steelers are now 8-1 against the Ravens since 2020 and most of them have looked like some variation of this.

It’s a tough loss for the Ravens since it’s so hard to say “we’ll get them next time” when seemingly each meeting looks something on the order of this. If the playoffs started today, it would be Steelers at Ravens in the wild card round too in the 6-3 matchup. That’s not ideal for the Ravens nor is being a wild card team in general.

But in one of my favorite stats this year, the Ravens have already lost to all the same teams or quarterbacks they lost to last year (Gardner Minshew, Browns, Steelers, and Chiefs).

A great win for the Steelers (8-2), but I think it’s also a reminder of why they excel against the Ravens and struggle so much with teams like Buffalo and Kansas City. They have to score more against those quarterbacks and they just struggle to stop them better since they are more decisive passers than Jackson, who was again looking confused by this defense in his fifth meeting with them. He was far from the only problem as the Ravens shit the bed in a variety of ways, but his play against this defense doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Bengals at Chargers: Jim Harbaugh’s Memorable Island Game Debut Teases Chargering Before Winning the Game

Let me just paste in my framing of this game from Friday night’s predictions:

Bengals-Chargers: I see this game going one of two ways. It could be a return to Chargering for Jim Harbaugh’s home debut in prime time, meaning a game where everything goes great for a half or three quarters, then they implode and lose to a hungry Cincinnati team that has been close most weeks and needs to avoid going 4-7. But the Bengals also are bad at winning close games like that. So, maybe it’s just a validation that the Chargers are different under Harbaugh, and he’s going to frustrate Joe Burrow with his defense that still hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game, and Justin Herbert is going to carve this defense up with his new receivers.

Yep, it was Chargering, but things are different under Jim Harbaugh, so the team still escaped with a 34-27 win. It was also classic Bengals, putting up some stats and making a rally effort only to come up short again in a close game to fall to 4-7. Their brand might be the only brand that can outdo Chargering right now.

Funny how some games play out exactly like you expected. I knew better than to say anything definitive about the Chargers when they were up 27-6 in the third quarter and Justin Herbert was shredding that defense. I’ve seen this movie too many times. Before you know it, the Chargers are giving up touchdowns on fourth downs, Herbert is fumbling after the ball hits a defender’s shin, Burrow is getting short fields, and just like that it’s tied at 27.

But then I’ve seen this before from the Bengals too often as well. You get a chance to take the lead and probably win the game, and you start misfiring on throws. You start getting stuffed in the backfield, dropping passes, penalties, etc. The kicks are longer, and Evan McPherson is not as good as he was a couple of years ago. He misses from 48 yards with half a quarter to go, he misses from 51 with 1:48 left after a couple more Burrow incompletions didn’t make it easier.

But it’s not like the Chargers made it look easy. Herbert flirted with some dangerous throws, missed some wide-open throws, and it ultimately took six possessions before the Chargers finally added to their 27 points with another score. I was starting to think this one was headed for a 27-27 overtime tie or a defense to win it on a return touchdown.

But with 45 seconds left at his own 16, Herbert finally stepped up with some great throws to Ladd McConkey for 55 yards, and J.K. Dobbins finished it off with a 29-yard touchdown run that I’m not sure he really expected to score on as he said he was. You also see why teams like to go down there and kick the field goal, because after scoring with 18 seconds left, the Bengals still had time to set up a very realistic Hail Mary at the end.

I’m not saying Dobbins screwed up by scoring the touchdown that was there, but it’s not the ideal way to finish a game like this and we saw it play out. But the Chargers were able to bat down the Hail Mary and hang on for the 34-27 win. Their 7-3 start ties 2018 for their best 10-game start in the last 15 years.

Watching these teams make so many mistakes when it was 27-27 is a good reminder of why it’s hard to take either seriously for the postseason. But by winning this game, the Chargers have a great shot of being there while being a problem for any team as long as they avoid Chargering as much as possible.

But the difference is they didn’t lose this game like they have in the past. That has to count for something.

Packers at Bears: Walk-Off Blocks Are Pretty Cool

Matt LaFleur was 10-0 against the Bears with every win by at least 7 points. He’s 11-0 now, but this was definitely the hardest win yet. The Packers could not get the Bears off the field on third down that often (9-of-16) as the new offense in the first game after firing Shane Waldron had success. They also held the ball for nearly 37 minutes, so the Packers were just 1-of-5 on third down and Jordan Love only threw 17 passes.

But Love still found Christian Watson on some big plays, resulting in 150 yards on 4 catches. Love was also in a scrambling mood in the fourth quarter, and his legs got him in the end zone with 2:59 left. But it was only a 20-19 lead after the 2-point conversion fail, which feels like every 2PC is failing these days in the NFL.

That opened the door for the Bears to win on a field goal, and for all the justified criticism Caleb Williams has been receiving, this was a huge moment for him. He delivered too as he shook off a pair of sacks at the two-minute warning and overcame a 3rd-and-19 situation.

But let’s not forget that the Bears are horrible in close games under Matt Eberflus. I can understand wanting to be a little conservative at the Green Bay 30 with 35 seconds and one timeout left when your rookie takes a lot of sacks. One there could be deadly.

But to just run for 2 yards and accept the fate of a 46-yard field goal with the so-so Cairo Santos as your kicker? I’m not a fan of that. Sure enough, the Packers pulled off the 46-yard block to win the game just like the Chiefs did to Denver last week.

That has to be one of the worst ways the Bears have ever lost to their bitter rival. But I have to say I like this if we’re going to see endings like this more often. Kickers were getting too good that you just have to pray they’d miss on anything under 50 yards. But instead of hoping the kicker chokes, why not do something about it and step up with a game-deciding block? I’m cool with that.

It also doesn’t hurt that Packers-Chiefs was my preseason Super Bowl pick and they’ve been the biggest beneficiaries of making these blocks this season. But the key thing is they made the block happen. They earned it.

Seahawks at 49ers: Some Wunderkind

Does anyone want the NFC West this year? Another game and another blown lead by the 49ers. But the 20-17 final is misleading as this was a low-possession game, so it was more offensive than that score suggests. But just when you think the 49ers are going to win after taking a 17-13 lead on a touchdown pass to Jauan Jennings, they give up another game-winning drive to Geno Smith after already doing so this season to Matthew Stafford (Rams) and Kyler Murray (Cardinals).

Geno was 0-6 against this team since 2022, but after his run game failed him on a 4th-and-1 earlier in the quarter, his defense got him another chance with 2:38 left, and his 80-yard game-winning drive was as good as any in his career. He had just 18 seconds and no timeouts left when he made the bold decision to scramble for the end zone, and I’m surprised he made it the full 13 yards without getting blown up and ending the game short of the end zone.

Awful defense. But remember when the 49ers were going to get better with Christian McCaffrey back? Their five longest plays in this game gained 12-to-22 yards, Jennings had four of them, and a Brock Purdy scramble for 13 yards was the other one.

The 49ers (5-5) are not a serious threat anymore. Not like this.

Jaguars at Lions: Nearly Offensive Perfection

Look, if the Jaguars want to fire Doug Pederson after this, I’m not going to say they are wrong. It’s almost certainly going to happen after the season, so if they want to use him as the scapegoat for one of the worst defensive performances in NFL history, then go ahead. It’s not like they were going to win this game with Mac Jones as the biggest underdog (+13.5) of the 2024 season, but Christ, get a stop on the other side of the ball.

Jared Goff went from throwing 5 picks last week to leading 7 straight touchdown drives in this game. He had a perfect passer rating on 29 attempts with 412 yards, so that’s a huge stat line. The only other quarterback I know to go a perfect 7-for-7 at leading touchdown drives was Josh Allen in the 2021 playoffs against New England.

The Lions took Goff out after the seventh touchdown, they scored a field goal on their eighth drive with Hendon Hooker, then they ran out the clock (all 6:45 of it, mind you) on their 52-6 win on the ninth drive.

That’s pretty close to offensive perfection. They won’t get as much credit as Buffalo given the lousy opponent and it wasn’t a playoff game, but this is up there for pure domination. The Lions had 38 first downs and 645 yards. They were 6-of-10 on third down and 3-of-3 on fourth down.

The Lions shouldn’t have an easier game the rest of the season, so this might be their most impressive form yet, but it’s a strong game from a historic perspective.

Colts at Jets: Anthony Richardson’s First Comeback Against a Familiar Foe

In his rookie season in 1998, Peyton Manning had a big moment when he led the first fourth-quarter comeback win of his career against the Jets, who had a great team that year. Well, Anthony Richardson won’t ever touch Manning’s legacy, which I can say with confidence, but he had a much-needed performance against the Jets after getting the starting job back from Joe Flacco.

Richardson was able to complete 20-of-30 passes for 272 yards, he only had one turnover, and he came back from a 24-16 deficit in the fourth quarter with a couple of touchdown drives. He ran in the go-ahead score with 46 seconds left and the defense was able to make it hold up for a 28-27 win.

For Aaron Rodgers, it was a brutal start again after falling behind 13-0. They had the lead late once again, but the Jets blew their third lead of the season. There was enough time to set up a winning kick, but we know those haven’t gone well for them this season either.

What has? The Jets are 3-8 and going into the bye week in one of the most embarrassing seasons in team history, which says a lot given their history.

Falcons at Broncos: Unexpected Blowout of the Week

Whoops, I thought this would be a 1-to-7 point game and it ended up being one of the biggest blowouts of the season with Denver taking it 38-6. I guess we can’t take it for granted that every Kirk Cousins game is supposed to be close as this was already the third time they’ve had a game decided by 18+ points this year.

But this was just an ass-kicking from Denver, and any concern of how they’d bounce back from the upsetting Kansas City loss was wiped away early with Bo Nix having his best game yet with 307 yards and 4 touchdowns on 28-of-33 passing. That’s some Drew Brees type of numbers.

The Falcons (6-5) are still in decent shape in the NFC South, but they might just be fodder for an NFC North runner-up this year. As for the Broncos, they’re eying the No. 7 seed and possibly better. It’s a hard team to figure out but they have had some impressive wins already, and this was another for sure.

Raiders at Dolphins: Good Tight End At Least

Wasn’t expecting the pinnacle of tight end play to come from this game, but Brock Bowers (13-126-1) and Jonnu Smith (6-101-2) showed up for their teams in this 34-19 win for the Dolphins.

In fact, Smith’s long second touchdown put the game away just when it looked like the Raiders could maybe get the ball back late in a 24-19 game. Look, the Raiders need a new coach and quarterback in 2025, but at least they have a heck of a weapon in Bowers. Not doing anything for their complete inability to run the ball, but he can play.

Browns at Saints: Taysom Hill Carrying Derek Carr Again

I have no clue why the Browns (-1.5) were a road favorite in New Orleans, but someone underestimated Tayson Hill having one of the greatest games in NFL history. The Stormin’ Mormon ran the ball 7 times for 138 yards and 3 touchdowns, which is already one of the craziest stat lines in NFL history. Only 21 players are known to have scored 3 rushing touchdowns on no more than 7 runs in a game, but Roland Hooks (1979 Bills) is the only one known to have surpassed 45 rushing yards as he had 70 in a game where he scored 4 touchdowns on 5 carries. But Hill blew that away with 138 yards, including 33 yards on what was technically the game-winning touchdown to break a 14-14 tie with 13:22 left. Hill later iced it with a 75-yard touchdown run with 2:26 left.

Just on that alone it’s a historic stat line. But Hill also caught 8-of-10 targets for 50 yards to lead the team in catches. He completed 1-of-2 passes for 18 yards and an interception, so maybe leave those plays to Derek Carr. But on top of all of that, Hill had a 42-yard kickoff return. That’s 230 all-purpose yards. Maybe 248 if we’re counting the pass completion.

What the hell? The funny part is this is Derek Carr’s second game-winning drive with the Saints, and he was 0-for-3 by success rate to start the quarter before Hill took off for the winning touchdown in a game they’d win by 3 touchdowns. Last year, Carr’s only game-winning drive was a touchdown pass thrown by Hill to break a 17-17 tie with the Bears.

So, that’s two game-winning touchdowns where Hill did the heavy lifting instead of Carr. But what a game for one of the most unique players in NFL history.

Also, I’m absolutely stunned that Jameis Winston passed for 395 yards and the Browns only scored 14 points despite not committing a single turnover. They ended up missing two field goals and turned it over on downs twice, so that at least helps make some sense of that one.

But Hill’s uncanny success? It’s hard to explain. Marquez Valdes-Scantling scoring another big touchdown for the Saints after the Chiefs didn’t want him back and the Bills couldn’t wait to get rid of him is also another strange development with the 2024 Saints.

Maybe the Pope did bless them. Does the Pope support LDS? I don’t know.

Vikings at Titans: Your Standard Ho-Hum Win for a Second-Place 8-2 Team

The Vikings continued their tour of the AFC South, but compared to last week’s 12-7 squeaker in Jacksonville, this was a much more comfortable, low-drama 23-13 win against the Titans. Neither team could run the ball a lick, but Minnesota limited the turnovers to a bad pitch to start the game, shook off Will Levis hitting a 98-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter, and didn’t give up any other touchdowns the whole game while also sacking him 5 times.

Rams at Patriots: Defense Closes for McVay Again

I swear Sean McVay’s Rams can never just close games with the four-minute offense. Even after taking a 28-13 lead into the final quarter, it was still 28-22 in the final minutes as Drake Maye gave them a lot to handle with a 30-of-40 passing day for nearly 300 yards. Another first down could have iced this one, but the Rams ended up punting from the New England 35, which is sadly on brand for McVay in these moments.

Fortunately, the defense had his back as they picked off Maye on a 3rd-and-13 desperation heave with 1:47 left to ice the win and get the team back to .500. A sack coming out of the two-minute warning just blew that drive up for the Patriots, but what’s happened to the defense in New England? That’s supposed to be Jerod Mayo’s specialty and his unit was carved up again by Stafford for four touchdowns from an offense that couldn’t get in the end zone once on Monday night against Miami.

Next week: Week 12 looks like that rare week where you’re waiting for Monday night (Ravens-Chargers Har-Bowl) for the best game. But I can see they didn’t have much left for a follow-up to Week 11 as six teams are on a bye and it really shows. I guess Steelers-Browns could be decent on Thursday night if the Steelers bring their usual “small game” approach to it and Jameis shows up dealing. 49ers-Packers has lost luster but might be able to save the Sunday afternoon slate. Not very intrigued by Rams-Eagles on Sunday night. But a light week before a football overload on Thanksgiving is not a bad idea to be honest. They can’t all be loaded.   

NFL 2024 Week 11 Predictions: Epic Sunday Edition

Week 11 in the NFL was always the Sunday to circle in the 2024 season. Sure, there’s that stretch in Weeks 16-17 (12/21 to 12/25) that I wrote about in multiple offseason articles as the key pressure points for everything from the MVP race to the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and that still should be true when the Chiefs play the Texans and Steelers in a span of 5 days, and we’ll also see the Ravens play the Steelers and Texans.

But those games are taking place on Saturday and Wednesday. As far as Sundays go, Week 11 is the big one that could be decisive in the final playoff standings. We’ve already seen the pivotal NFC East game on Thursday night with the Eagles taking a considerable lead over the Commanders. Next, we’ll see a similar AFC North game between the Ravens and Steelers, the Chiefs-Bills showdown with No. 1 seed implications, and Bengals-Chargers is big for the wild card race.

At least one of these epic games should be fantastic and memorable, but we’ll see. We’ve been bamboozled before.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 11 Predictions

I had the Eagles winning Thursday night, but I have to say I’m disappointed in Washington. I don’t know if the ribs are still bothering Jayden Daniels or what, but that was his worst game of the season. He couldn’t hit anything over 5 yards, and I don’t know what happened to the run defense in the fourth quarter, or why they didn’t just kick a field goal when they had a chance to go up 13-12. Just a bad game and not a good feeling to lose two games in five days.

Let me do the big games first.

Ravens-Steelers: Pittsburgh is 7-1 in this rivalry since 2020, and they’ve been within one score (or better) in 16 of 18 meetings, so there is almost no recent history of the Steelers losing convincingly to Baltimore. This rivalry loves producing a close finish no matter which quarterback is playing for either team. This is a rare case where QB1 for each team is playing, but the Steelers have been one of Lamar Jackson’s kryptonite teams to go along with the Chiefs and the postseason in general. He hasn’t played them much (4 starts), but the Steelers should be better prepared for this offense than most of the Baltimore schedule. You see the way they eat up NFC teams each year. That shouldn’t happen here.

But I understand why the Ravens are favored as their offense has topped 20 points every week. They’ve been close in every loss. The Steelers are a little scattershot with the offense, but you have to think Russell Wilson can hang in there and deliver some deep balls against that secondary as I expect big things from George Pickens. But it should come down to the usual things like turnovers and who can finish the job. I actually think Wilson has a great shot at delivering another game-winning drive this week as we know the Ravens have blown many leads since 2022. But I will hedge it a bit and take the Ravens to win, Steelers to cover. If Gardner Minshew and Jameis can beat this team…But I expect a battle either way.

Chiefs-Bills: I’m actually surprised the Chiefs are +2.5 in this one. We know they have great success as underdogs in the Mahomes era, but the Bills won’t have Dalton Kincaid or Keon Coleman. Amari Cooper is supposed to play but probably isn’t 100%, and the Chiefs defend WR1’s very well. It just feels like a low-scoring game is about to go down, and that favors the Chiefs, who are so used to winning tight games. Maybe the winning streak is living on borrowed time after last week’s blocked FG saved it, but I still think the Chiefs are the better team, and I think a playoff rematch would look more offensive from both sides. KC isn’t going to cry for Buffalo’s injuries after everything they’ve been through this year with their injuries.

But there is an injury I have my eye on and that’s kicker Harrison Butker. I just wrote that article about Mahomes’ luck with clutch kicking relative to Brady, and it wouldn’t shock me if the Chiefs’ winning streak and perfect season bid ends because their new inexperienced kicker fails on a clutch FG. Call it payback for Tyler Bass missing in last January’s playoff game.

So, I don’t have a great feeling about the Chiefs this Sunday, but I still think they win. At this point, how can you bet against them? But Buffalo has defeated them in three straight regular seasons, so this one might be the biggest challenge left for 17-0.

Bengals-Chargers: I see this game going one of two ways. It could be a return to Chargering for Jim Harbaugh’s home debut in prime time, meaning a game where everything goes great for a half or three quarters, then they implode and lose to a hungry Cincinnati team that has been close most weeks and needs to avoid going 4-7. But the Bengals also are bad at winning close games like that. So, maybe it’s just a validation that the Chargers are different under Harbaugh, and he’s going to frustrate Joe Burrow with his defense that still hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game, and Justin Herbert is going to carve this defense up with his new receivers.

I believe in Harbaugh and Herbert more than I do Burrow and Zac Taylor, so I am going with the Chargers here. But I will acknowledge it’s a step up in competition for the defense to cover a weapon like Ja’Marr Chase, who is on fire right now. Picking him for OPOY before Week 1 doesn’t look so bad now.

But this should be a nice, lower stakes game to end what will hopefully be an incredible Sunday.

Jaguars-Lions: Seriously, Mac Jones against a scoring juggernaut? That doesn’t seem fair.

Packers-Bears: Matt LaFleur is 10-0 against the Bears with every win by 7+ points. Let’s back him to keep it rolling while the Bears are in “they are who we thought they were” mode.

Rams-Patriots: I don’t like what I’m seeing from the Rams right now. I think the Patriots can frustrate Stafford enough to require him to win it late on a FG.

Browns-Saints: Surprised Cleveland is favored, because this team hasn’t been good even outside of QB play this year. But the Saints have obviously struggled too. Still, I’m banking on that no 4QC streak for New Orleans to end, and I could see Jameis throwing a game-ending pick in his return to NOLA.

Vikings-Titans: Similar to last week, right? Vikings -5.5 on the road against a bad AFC South team with shoddy QB play expected. But they almost blew it in Jacksonville last week. The Titans play better defense and could really limit the yards Sam Darnold gains while forcing turnovers he’s all too willing to give up. I really want to take TEN +5.5, then I just remember the stupid shit Will Levis does on a football field and figure Brian Flores will find a way to bring that out enough. Not a game I plan on betting on though.

Colts-Jets: Anthony Richardson is back, and I guess I’m back on the Jets? Two teams not going anywhere right now.

Raiders-Dolphins: It was a 20-13 game when they played last year in Miami. Could see something similar, so I’ll give the Raiders a shot at a push or cover after their bye.

Seahawks-49ers: The 49ers own Geno Smith (6-0 since 2022), and I think they complete the sweep here with a 7-point win or better. Healthier offense. Already beat them on the road by 12 even though they tried to give that game away too. They should probably stop doing that this season.

Falcons-Broncos: Ah, the teams who couldn’t stop a 35-yd FG from getting blocked last week. I think the Falcons have the better overall roster, but I have to trust Sean Payton against a former division rival to find a way at home to get it done. I could see Kirk Cousins failing on a GWD again this week. Get Patrick Surtain to limit Drake London.

Texans-Cowboys: This should have been a good MNF game, but the Cowboys are ass and the Texans need to get out of prime time until they start playing better. I fully expect them to beat Cooper Rush, but I’m still going Dallas +7.5 just in case. I don’t trust a team that lost at home after getting 5 INTs last week. They also nearly gave away a game to Buffalo where Allen was 9-of-30. Something just isn’t right in Houston this year.

Hopefully I’ll be back Sunday night with recaps that mean something on the biggest games. It won’t be a RedZone day at all for me. Going to watch BAL-PIT and KC-BUF straight through.

NFL 2024 Week 10 Predictions: All Eyes on Washington Edition

If you thought the title would be a nod to the 2024 election this week, you’d be right. If you think I’m going to give Orange Caligula any more oxygen in this space right now, you’d be wrong. He should die of gonorrhea and rot in hell. The Washington I’m watching this weekend is the Commanders, and I’m excited to finally see a full live game with Jayden Daniels. I think Steelers-Commanders is clearly the highlight game on Sunday, and we’ll see if a return by Nico Collins in Houston could bolster that matchup on SNF.

But I also want to quickly point out that Week 9 was a great reminder that you don’t always have to pick underdogs just for the sake of picking them. I’ve been guilty of that a lot this season as I didn’t want to just publish picks where the favorite covers and wins. But in Week 9, favorites were 14-1 SU (God damn Saints) and 10-5 ATS. Almost perfect.

Favorites have been on a good run after a lot of upsets early this season in the games with the biggest spreads. But now that we’re into the second half of the 2024 regular season, we are seeing this is a top-heavy season. There are nine teams with just 2 wins going into Sunday. The last team who makes the playoffs in the AFC could be a mess unless the Bengals or Jets finish strong. The NFC is stronger, but the NFC West has been messy with the teams blowing double-digit leads against each other as they jumble around .500 right now. The Cowboys have fallen apart sooner than expected.

It’s getting easier to pick winners since the games are usually playing out as lopsided as they look on paper now. But I will say that doesn’t apply to Sunday’s first game in Germany where we somehow sent the Giants and Panthers. We’re not sending (or voting for) our best.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 10 Predictions

Silly me for thinking the Ravens-Bengals would at least try to play a different game script than Week 5. But it turned into more of the same with the Bengals choking away a game they should have won (again). Maybe neither team ultimately decides who wins the Super Bowl this year, but the thin margin in those games is something else. We’re two solid snaps away from the Bengals at 6-4 and the Ravens at 5-5 right now.

Panthers-Giants: Not a chance I won’t be sawing logs during this one. But I think Carolina can build off its win and use Chuba Hubbard against that poor run defense. Giants having to win by 6.5 against anyone with Daniel Jones feels like a lot.

Patriots-Bears: Not sure how to react to Bears playing so poorly on offense since the bye. Just banking on hope that Maye makes some mistakes and Caleb channels his 2022 Justin Fields against the New England defense with a big game.

Bills-Colts: I’m very tempted to take both the Bills and Chiefs to struggle this Sunday with their big showdown a week away. Shades of 1990 Giants-49ers when they were supposed to meet undefeated and both lost the week before. I think Joe Flacco will definitely score more this week to keep the job, but I’m still going to trust the Bills on the road. But I won’t be surprised if they win by 3 and don’t cover.

Vikings-Jaguars: Can Sam Darnold get a call for a blow to the head this week? I just think the Vikings are better on both sides of the ball and should win by a touchdown.

Broncos-Chiefs: Odds are suggesting a 24-17 game and that passes the sniff test for me. Division games are weird. Sean Payton got a couple of cracks at the Chiefs last year. At least Mahomes shouldn’t have the flu this time, but I don’t think the Chiefs will score a ton against a team that knows them well and has mostly played good defense this year. All comes down to how Bo Nix handles the blitzes sure to come his way, but I think his mobility could be very useful here. I’ll go with the KC classic: they win and don’t cover.

Falcons-Saints: This is going against the grain but I’m calling for the upset. Everyone is shitting on the Saints, including the Pope having fun with hashtags on Twitter. But I think they get a first-game interim coach boost, they’re due for a 4QC win (none since 2023 started), and the Falcons needed 2 return touchdowns to beat them at home earlier this season. The losing streak stops here. If not, then I’m probably not picking them the rest of the season in any game.

49ers-Bucs: CMC is finally back, but even if he wasn’t, I think the 49ers coming off a bye and feeling healthier is an easy pick against the Bucs, who left the tank empty on Monday night in KC. I view this game quite similarly to Jags-Vikings this week. I know, the 6.5-point spread is the kiss of death this season, but I just feel good about the 49ers here.

Steelers-Commanders: I think it’s a 23-20 type of game that comes down to the last seconds and a FG. I’m going to go with Washington, because I believe the Steelers aren’t well prepared for this impressive rookie who can attack them at every level of the field. Unfamiliar opponents. Of course, it wouldn’t shock me if the Steelers won 23-17. Why that score? That’s the score they won by on the road in Arizona in 2019 against Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray, and that’s the score Washington won by in Pittsburgh in 2020 on a Monday, the game that was the beginning of the end for the Pittsburgh offense looking functional under Big Ben. But I’m still going to trust Jayden Daniels in this one as he’s actually 5-0 ATS as a favorite this year. It should be fun.

Titans-Chargers: Will Levis is back, and he’s facing the No. 1 scoring defense? Then I think the streak of games under 40 points for the Chargers can continue. Give me LA 23-13.

Jets-Cardinals: It’s not so much that I believe the Jets are going to start reeling off wins, but I just don’t know what to make of Arizona yet. Apparently I’m not alone as this is a small spread in a week with 8 games having a spread of 5.5 and higher.

Cowboys-Eagles: You might say the Eagles should dominate, but they nearly blew a 22-0 lead to Trevor Lawrence last week. Mike McCarthy usually does a respectable job with backup QBs like Cooper Rush, who made it a 20-17 game in the fourth quarter in 2022 when he was in Philly on SNF with the Eagles during their peak run to that Super Bowl year. He lost 26-17 in the end, and he threw 3 picks, but I think the Cowboys will actually make this respectable before losing again. Backdoor cover is always an option.

Lions-Texans: Preview link above but I just think the Texans are the inferior team here, and the Lions should keep rolling. But I am intrigued by the No. 1 defense in lowest completion % vs. No. 1 QB in highest completion % as Goff is over 83% in his last 5 games. But if it’s actually close, don’t discount some C.J. Stroud magic now that Nico Collins is back. Still, it’s a bummer Diggs tore his ACL as this one had high potential for a non-conference game on SNF. It still might deliver.

Dolphins-Rams: I always say fade the Dolphins on the road against good teams, but are the Rams still good? It’s hard to say, but I’m taking them with their weapons. Hopefully we can avoid a Puka ejection this week.