Tag: Ravens

NFL 2024 Week 15 Predictions: The Gauntlet Begins Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The bye weeks are all finished for the 2024 NFL season, so it’s back to 16-game slates for the last month. But Week 15 marks the beginning of the gauntlet I’ve been talking about since May when the schedule came out. For reasons I’m sure are stupid, the league has four major AFC contenders (Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens, Texans) all playing three games 10 days apart from December 15 – December 25. They’ll all play Sunday, then they’re in action against each other next Saturday (12/21), then they’ll be playing on Christmas that Wednesday.

The winner here is really Buffalo, which had a late bye and doesn’t have to deal with this nonsense. I don’t know what the NFL was thinking other than dollars with Saturday and Wednesday island games over the holidays with contenders. But you’re just asking for players to get hurt here with such short recovery times, and some of these teams like the Chiefs had an early bye, so they really could use some rest here. Then when you have such important games and a physical game like Steelers-Ravens in the mix, it’s just a terrible idea to do this.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 15 Predictions

Silly me for thinking the 49ers would salvage their season and not get swept by the Rams, or blow their 4th 4Q lead in a division game this season. They are done now.

WAS-NO: Got an inexperienced QB starting for the Saints, so that’s a wild card here. The spread might be a little high for Washington, but the bye week should have helped, they’ve blown some weak teams out this year, so I’m just going to roll with Jayden Daniels outscoring the Saints by 8+.

CIN-TEN: Could be a good underdog spot for Brian Callahan’s knowledge of the Bengals, but I just can’t bring myself to betting on the Titans and Will Levis after losing 10-6 last week to the Jags with Mac Jones. That’s beyond the pale.

MIA-HOU: Dolphins are really playing better football right now than Houston, but the Texans had their bye, they should still win the AFC South, and I’m just going to play the streak that this is the type of game Miami loses on the road every time.

KC-CLE: I like for Jameis to put up some big numbers, but will we actually see the KC defense get some picks this week? They’re dying for some regression there. But I wouldn’t bet on the spread here as much as I’d take the best bet this year: Chiefs by 1-13 points. But KC better have answers for blocking Myles Garrett, who is coming for his 100th sack. That’s a good defensive prop pick to bet on here.

DAL-CAR: Been a few seasons since the Panthers were favored. I’m going to trust them too since I think it’s been a month of impressive football given where this team was to start the year. Bryce Young is better than Cooper Rush, and I’m going to trust Xavier Legette, who is hilarious to listen to, making up for last week’s drop with a big play.

NYJ-JAX: Again, Aaron Rodgers should probably just retire on the spot if he can’t beat the 3-10 Jags with Mac Jones. But we’ve been burned before on the Jets this year.

BAL-NYG: I see a 30-14 type of game here, which will piss off the Baltimore -16.5 bettors. But this is the biggest spread of the season so far.

IND-DEN: Fine with eating crow on this one but I just think a rested Denver pass defense is going to make Anthony Richardson look terrible, and the Broncos should have a varied attack against that defense in a comfortable cover.

NE-ARI: Naming defenders on these teams is a tough task. I think Drake Maye could keep it close again, but I’m taking the Cards to end their 3-game losing streak.

TB-LAC: Could be one of Sunday’s best games. I’m going to assume and hope that Ladd McConkey is playing, which is why I like the Chargers at home. Just think the defense can get more takeaways out of Baker Mayfield and the Chargers will win the turnover battle while keeping that offense in check.

PIT-PHI: If Bryce Young could nearly (and should have) beat the Eagles in Philly, what’s stopping Russell Wilson? Well, I wanted to take the Steelers ATS here, but the lack of George Pickens is huge in a matchup like this against a strong defense and potent offense. You can get away without Pickens against Cleveland at home but it’s a different story here. I also see the Eagles perking up with their passing game after rumblings from their WRs that they aren’t getting enough targets. Basically, I think the Steelers blow this game off as it doesn’t really matter. Just win next Saturday in Baltimore and you’re the AFC North champions. Nothing that happens this Sunday changes that fact that next Saturday is the big one.

BUF-DET: Super Bowl preview? It could be. I’ve bounced back and forth on this one. Ultimately, I think the Lions are due for a loss after barely getting by the Bears and Packers in the division. Unfamiliar opponent here. Lots of injuries on defense too, and we’ve seen the Lions really struggle to stop teams from scoring after good starts to their last two games. I think Josh Allen will have a good game and Jared Goff might make a late mistake or Dan Campbell’s 4th down gamble backfires this time and the Bills win by 1-to-6 points.

GB-SEA: I think the Packers are the better team with the better quarterback, experienced coach, and Geno Smith likely won’t go back-to-back games without a sack or turnover. But it could be a good one Sunday night.

CHI-MIN: Crazy comeback by the Bears last time to force overtime and give the Vikings a scare. Minnesota’s been playing tight games but I think it can open up a big lead and score on this Chicago team with Sam Darnold playing arguably his best ball all year right now.

ATL-LV: Seriously, how do you pick a MNF doubleheader this shitty? I don’t really care to watch either game. But it would be a disaster for Kirk Cousins to get outplayed by Desmond Ridder of all people. He has to come through here and get Atlanta back on track. If not, then they might as well turn things over to Penix.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 13

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Week 13 started with a lot of close NFL finishes on the holidays, but it carried over to Sunday too. A whopping 12 of the 15 games this week have been decided by 1-to-7 points with MNF pending. A few were artificially close, but there were 9 games with a comeback opportunity and we saw six game-winning drives this week.

This has felt like the week where people started picturing a Championship Sunday with Eagles-Lions and Bills-Chiefs. Maybe it ends up that way, but the one thing I’m sure of is we’ll get a new NFC champion as the 49ers are more cooked than your turkey was.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Eagles at Ravens: Best Philadelphia Win in Two Years

I have to give the Eagles (10-2) credit for what I’d call their best win in the last two seasons. They may be playing defense better than anybody since Week 6, they got this one done in Baltimore against a quarterback who was 23-1 against the NFC, and they didn’t have Darius Slay, DeVonta Smith, and they lost some defensive backs during the game too and still were up 24-12 late.

Oh, they also spotted the Ravens a 9-0 lead, which usually leads to an avalanche. But the Eagles shook off the bad start and hung in there.

However, I don’t want to give the offense too much credit since it managed just 252 yards, 4-of-12 on third down, and they didn’t even have any takeaways or long returns to produce some hidden yards in those numbers. It was a bit bland on that side of the ball, but Saquon Barkley was dominant down the stretch, and if any award was decided in this game, I’d say Barkley is inching closer to lock territory for Offensive Player of the Year. Derrick Henry may have blown his shot with no touchdowns in consecutive games and Barkley getting the push in this head-to-head matchup that wasn’t a grand offensive display by any means.

But let’s also just be honest. The Eagles sat back and watched the Ravens do what they do best this year: Beat themselves. They kept the penalties to a minimum this time, but the deterioration of Justin Tucker is getting so bad that you honestly have to consider if it’s time to say goodbye. He’s missed a career-high 10 kicks this season (with 5 games to go) and that includes 3 more in this game. They weren’t Herculean tasks either from 47 and 53 yards, and he started downhill by missing an extra point in the first quarter.

Somehow, this game had 5 fumbles and all were recovered by the team who fumbled, so no turnovers. Lamar Jackson played like someone dying to turn it over with a fumble on an unforced error that killed a drive, then he could have easily been picked on a fourth-down throw in the fourth quarter that fell incomplete (probably better for Philly’s field position). But he wasn’t impressive like he was a year ago against a Vic Fangio defense from Miami.

But Jackson’s success rate in the fourth quarter was 1-for-7 on drives where it was a 14-12 and 21-12 game, so that’s not going to help his MVP case for the team’s fifth loss this year. He also took a huge sack on the play before Tucker missed his 47-yard field goal, and had three straight failed dropbacks before the next missed field goal in the third quarter.

But if you wanted to show one play that sums up this game, just look at the way rookie corner Cooper DeJean tackled Derrick Henry for a 3-yard gain on a 3rd-and-11 in a 21-12 game:

https://twitter.com/_MLFootball/status/1863374958258270292/history

Henry’s OPOY case may have died on that snap. The Ravens got the ball back with 63 seconds left in a 24-12 game and were able to get a touchdown with just 3 seconds left. It had a bit of a garbage time feel to it, especially with Jackson running for 39 yards against a defense that thought maybe a flag was thrown. But that put 19 points on the board. Just keeping it at 12 would have given them a better shot of not setting their season low in the playoffs for the fifth-straight time under Jackson.

But the fact is the Ravens are now 8-5 and facing a stronger likelihood of taking the wild card route in January. They could also end up inevitably facing Pittsburgh in the wild card, and at this point, I’m not sure if it matters all that much if the game is played in Pittsburgh or Baltimore. It’s still going to be Ravens-Steelers, and lately, that’s not good for Baltimore winning.

But it’s a very good win for the Eagles as the defense should feel some real confidence if it has to play a team like Detroit or Buffalo in a big playoff game this year.

It was still a “yikes” day from Tucker though…

Steelers at Bengals: Shootout of the Year (with a Predictable Winner)

The Bengals insisted all September that they were still the team to beat in the AFC, and yet here we are with the team at 4-8, likely not going to the playoffs for the second year in a row, and it’s another loss to Pittsburgh that could effectively be the final nail. Doing it in Cincinnati is just the cherry on top as the Steelers travel there so well like they did in the playoffs in 2005 and 2015 when they ended those dream seasons for the Bengals.

But they’ve done it to the Bengals in the regular season for a couple of decades too. I said the offense has always perked up against Lou Anarumo’s defense even in the Matt Canada era, and they were really special on Sunday with the first game for Arthur Smith and Russell Wilson.

It got off to a terrible start with George Pickens getting dragged down by the helmet, and it leading to a pick-six for the Bengals. It wasn’t DPI since the ball wasn’t in the air yet. It wasn’t illegal contact since it was within 5 yards. I guess they could have called illegal hands to the face, but I still put that more on Pickens for being soft on the play, and then he of course didn’t even try to make a tackle, choosing to complain to the ref for a flag.

But I didn’t imagine Russell Wilson would have the best game by a Pittsburgh quarterback since vintage Ben Roethlisberger after that start. It’s the most encouraged I’ve felt about a Pittsburgh offensive game in years, because they showed things that were different this week. They saw the complaints and flaws in Cleveland that the offense relies on too many deep shots, Wilson is getting too much heat, and they need to find a more consistent offense that can hit layups too.

Well, they did that Sunday. They attacked the Bengals repeatedly over the middle on short, quick throws to the running backs. Najee Harris got so many catches on one drive that he had to get oxygen in the first quarter. Better get used to it, because the Steelers may actually be using the middle of the field a little more going forward. But they definitely liked what they saw on tape against the Bengals, and Wilson was very accurate and decisive with the ball. He only took 2 sacks, and he finished 29-of-38 for 414 yards and 3 touchdowns, his second-highest passing yardage total in his career.

Wilson got to over 250 yards by halftime when Joe Burrow had just 100 yards. That doesn’t mean the defense was playing great, because they gave up way too many penalties on Joey Porter Jr., and they relied on a couple of splash plays to get 3 takeaways from Burrow, including two strip-sacks. The big one came in the fourth quarter when it was returned for a touchdown to take a 41-24 lead with 11:06 left.

But the Steelers played abysmal defense the rest of the way, and again, Porter Jr. was a main culprit as he is too grabby with receivers and got flagged for DPI in the end zone. On the last drive, he dropped a pick in the end zone that would have sealed the win, but Burrow instead got another touchdown pass. Keep in mind, that drive happened so fast because of a 49-yard pass to a wide-open Ja’Marr Chase with a blocker in front of him.

It really looked like the Steelers might blow a 17-point lead to one of the worst comeback teams in the league. Even the offense was blowing the situation as a holding penalty on a 2nd-down run stopped the clock with 1:54 left. That means if the Bengals could stop a 3rd-and-4, Burrow would get over a minute to score a touchdown unless Chris Boswell could nail a very long field goal (58 yards or so).

The Steelers put Justin Fields into the game for the first time, and you had to expect a run from him. Everyone should have saw that coming, and yet, he did exactly that and it still converted for a 7-yard gain. He even did the slide properly this time instead of coming up short to extend the game. But that’s a wrap in a 44-38 game, the highest-scoring game this season, no one expected.

At the same time, I feel much better about Pittsburgh’s chances to keep up in January if they have to outscore the likes of the Bills or Chiefs. But I also feel even worse that the defense is going to get destroyed like it has in every single playoff game since the 2017 season. Even with some of their best front seven players creating 4 sacks and 2 fumbles, this defense still allowed 31 points. That’s poor.

But after the first loss with Wilson to Cleveland last week, I can’t imagine anyone will still question the move from Fields to him after this game. Wilson was in vintage form in this one.

49ers at Bills: San Francisco Melts in the Snow

This is exactly why you shouldn’t trust a warm-weather team playing in the snowy elements of Buffalo in a game like this. Yes, the 49ers didn’t have Trent Williams and Nick Bosa, but Brock Purdy returned, and there are still a lot of really talented players on both sides of the ball with a coach who is supposed to be a genius.

Yet the 49ers turned in a lifeless, mistake-heavy performance in another 35-10 rout that has dropped them to 5-7, and they may not recover from this one. They also lost Christian McCaffrey again, and with the way he pulled up on his own, we may not see him again until 2025.

But even without Williams, there were running lanes to be found as both defenses struggled to get traction on the field that was quickly covered with snow that started just before kickoff. That also slows down the pass rush, so even Bosa might not have been that huge in a game like this against a quarterback as hard to sack like Allen.

But the fact is Allen took a backseat on this night where he only had to throw 17 passes. The running backs picked up just a hair under 200 yards as James Cook even broke a 65-yard touchdown on a 1-play drive. The Bills opened this game up in the third quarter when the 49ers blew their shot to make this competitive at 21-3 when Kyle Juszczyk fumbled at the goal line as the team struggled with ball security all night and just looked generally unprepared.

Meanwhile, the Bills have a player like Mack Hollins walking to the stadium barefoot, and he caught a touchdown in this game. But the final nail in the coffin was when Allen threw an off-target pass to Amari Cooper, who fought with the defense before pitching a lateral to Allen, who dove for the score, essentially completing a touchdown pass to himself (but no reception credit). That made it 28-3 and that was a wrap as Purdy couldn’t even throw for 100 yards to his more talented receivers. Purdy even fumbled on an unforced error to set up a short field for Buffalo’s last touchdown.

It looks like the 49ers are going out sad, and while Kyle Shanahan may deserve an injury excuse for missing the playoffs this year, you can’t tell me 38-10 and 35-10 in consecutive weeks with these types of performances is not worth criticizing given the star power still on the field.

Texans at Jaguars: Houston’s Not Beating the Allegations

Why is it even when the Texans win there still feels like a loser quality to it? This game was marred by the cheap hit by Azeez Al-Shaair that gave Trevor Lawrence a concussion, which led to him posturing on the field in a scary scene.

I say suspend his ass, because that looked very intentional, and apparently he’s got a history of being a dirty player.

But guess what? Even though the Texans were up 23-6 with 12:00 left and Mac Jones, one of the worst comeback quarterbacks in NFL history, was in the game, the Jaguars still made Houston sweat for the win. Jones led back-to-back touchdown drives to make it 23-20 with 3:31 left, a bad trend that’s happened multiple times to the Texans this year.

Fortunately, they kept the ball on the ground with Joe Mixon, who was able to hit the big runs to get the last few first downs to put the game away. But I want to see what the league does to Al-Shaair. All these little penalties and fines that are supposed to protect the quarterbacks but don’t actually stop the hits from still happening. Let’s see some real punishment like docking him his last 5 game checks this year.

Chargers at Falcons: Kirk Cousins Is a Tampa Bay Defense Merchant This Year

Man, Kirk Cousins played the Tampa Bay defense twice this year as if his family’s lives depended on him being great. He threw 8 touchdowns to one pick in those games, he had the 500-yard game, and his 276 yards in the rematch was also his third-highest yardage game with the Falcons.

I don’t want to act like those are his only big games this year as he shredded the weak Cowboys’ defense, and he had that good comeback moment in Philadelphia. But the Tampa Bay games are definitely building up his season stats, especially after he threw 4 picks in a rough 17-13 loss at home to the Chargers here.

Cousins was picked on 3-of-4 drives to end this game, which was always within reach. One of Cousins’ picks was returned for a touchdown in the third quarter, which is how the Chargers took the lead for good.

I thought Justin Herbert would have a big passing game with J.K. Dobbins out, but he threw for just 147 yards on 23 attempts, and Ladd McConkey had 117 of those yards in a huge game for the rookie. But it’s not like the running game stepped up for Herbert. It produced 12 carries for 55 yards for him.

The defense led the way here as the offense only had 187 yards. Meanwhile, the Falcons had 350 yards, but they were 3/14 on third down and the four picks. Definitely a winnable game that was thrown away by the Falcons.

Cardinals at Vikings: The 10-Win Team No One Is Talking About

The Vikings are now 10-2, winners of five straight, and it feels like no one talks about them because of the allure of the Lions and Packers in the same division. But they’ll get a rematch with those teams at the end of the season, they already won in Green Bay, and this division is far from decided.

Minnesota broke expectations again by being able to overcome a 19-6 deficit in the second half behind quarterback Sam Darnold, who continues to play well. He was sacked 5 times in this game, matched his leading rushers with 22 yards on the ground, but still drove 70 yards twice for critical touchdowns in a 23-22 comeback win.

Aaron Jones made up for another fumble by catching an open touchdown for the lead with 1:13 left. The Cardinals weren’t able to get a first down as it was not a great game for Kyler Murray, who was picked twice in the quarter, including a desperation play on 4th-and-10 to end it at 23-22. They only needed a field goal, but now Arizona (6-6) is second in the NFC West.

The Vikings could have what it takes to shake up what people are starting to bill as an inevitable championship game between the Lions and Eagles.

Seahawks at Jets: 41 and Done

Aaron Rodgers turns 41 today (Monday), and he looked every bit that age and more in Sunday’s latest loss to the Seahawks. Apparently, the Jets are the first team to be favored in 9-of-12 games and have a record as bad as 3-9 SU. They found a way to blow their fourth lead in the fourth quarter this season, but this game had a few critical turning points that largely went against the Jets.

Up 21-7 in the second quarter after a kickoff return for a touchdown, the Jets had a chance to really put the dagger through the Seahawks, who fumbled on the ensuing kickoff. But after Rodgers missed Garrett Wilson on a pass, the refs missed a delay of game, and Rodgers’ pass was intercepted by Leonard Williams, who rumbled his way for a 92-yard touchdown, reportedly the longest ever for a 300-pound player. That made it 21-13 in a situation where it looked like the Jets would go up 28-7.

The Jets never scored again. Breece Hall wasted a goal-line stand by fumbling, which led to a Seattle field goal to make it 21-19 in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks were later stuffed on a 4th-and-1 run that was negated by a horse collar penalty. They finished that drive with the go-ahead touchdown instead with 5:31 left, giving Rodgers plenty of time to get a touchdown in a 26-21 deficit.

But the drive was painfully slow, and things quickly went haywire after the 2-minute warning. Rodgers took a sack and faced a 4th-and-15. Naturally, his pass fell harmlessly incomplete to end the game. Rodgers finished 21-of-39 for 185 yards, which will drop his career-low YPA (6.4) this season even lower.

Big win for the Seahawks, who are 7-5 and in first place in the NFC West.

Colts at Patriots: Marathon Drive Produces Rare Win in New England

The Colts had not won in New England since 2006, a memory of better and far more relevant times for this team. For both teams, obviously. But the Colts had lost their last 7 trips to Gillette Stadium, so it is a welcome sign that Shane Steichen is now 2-0 against the Patriots after also beating them in Germany in 2023.

This game had more scoring, though it sure didn’t look like Anthony Richardson was going to surpass 100 passing yards for the longest time, and those fears about him only doing well on scripted drives came up again as he was having a mess of a game on drives that didn’t begin each half.

It looked like things were going New England’s way again once Drake Maye led a go-ahead drive for a touchdown to take a 24-17 lead, then corner Christian Gonzalez picked off Richardson with 7:59 left. That was lights out in the old days for the Patriots, but not anymore.

The Colts forced a three-and-out, and Richardson took over with 5:34 left and 80 yards to go. Old-school football. But it was mostly passing from Richardson until the Colts moved their 19-play march into the red zone, then he started getting more designed runs. After calling five straight runs, the Colts put the ballgame on 4th-and-3 on Richardson to make a throw on time, and he delivered with the touchdown to Alec Pierce with 12 seconds left.

That’s a solid situation to go for two, which the Colts also converted with Richardson powering his way in for the 25-24 lead. But we also have to reconsider this strategy with the way teams are setting up field goals anymore. Getting to start at the 30 is a huge bonus, and the Patriots still had timeouts. Even with a rookie quarterback and some low-level weapons, the Patriots managed to run 3 snaps in 11 seconds (hometown clock operator?) to move the ball 20 yards to midfield and at least give kicker Joey Slye a shot at a 68-yard field goal, which would be the longest in NFL history.

This is the same kicker who shanked a 67-yard field goal against the Chiefs in 2020 when he was with Carolina. He’s also a kicker who blew a 25-yard field goal earlier in this game, but from 68, he was straight down the middle. It just came up a yard or two short.

That would have been an amazing kick, and it does make you want to think twice about 12 seconds being long enough to avoid a finish like this when you go for two. But I guess if you don’t think you can win in overtime, this is what you do.

I’m still not convinced Richardson is the real deal for the Colts, who are hanging in the playoff hunt at 6-7, but at least this drive and the one against the Jets are encouraging.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Bryce Young Did His Job Again

One of the more encouraging stories in the last month has been Bryce Young playing like an actual NFL quarterback. Has it been great? Not quite, but getting production out of him, getting him to score 20 points in four straight games, and seeing him deliver a few clutch drives is absolutely huge given he’s spent most of his career as someone who might not sniff 20 points in 3 weeks combined.

Frankly, he should have had this game won against Tampa Bay as a 5.5-point underdog, but they gave it away again. Young stepped up with a great 25-yard touchdown throw to Adam Thielen with 30 seconds left to take a 23-20 lead. But in today’s NFL with the kickoff putting teams at the 30 and so many kickers capable of hitting from long distance, it’s really hard to defend that kind of lead. It’s not like the old days.

Sure enough, Baker Mayfield shrugged off a pretty poor game where he was hit hard multiple times, and he got his offense into field goal range with three productive completions and a scramble. See kids, you can fire off five scrimmage plays (plus the field goal) in 30 seconds if you have three timeouts.

Chase McLaughlin was good from 51 yards out to send the game to overtime. But he wasn’t good from 55 yards on the first drive of overtime, and I have to question the decision to kick that long attempt. First, it doesn’t win the game. It only gives you a lead and puts the opponent in that rare air of four-down football without a real time constraint.

Then it’s not like McLaughlin is a stud kicker. If he misses, you’re giving Carolina the ball at their 45, and a field goal wins the game for them. It’s 4th-and-7 at the Carolina 37, so you probably don’t want to go for it that far. I might just punt or try the hard count and punt there. Make Young drive a long field while being constrained to 3-down football.

The Bucs’ defense bailed out the rest of the team, because the Panthers looked like they were going to get a game-winning field goal after another brilliant catch from Theilen to the 34. But on the very next play, Chuba Hubbard was stripped on a great forced fumble by Nelson.

Bucky Irving had the huge day, but it was Rachaad White who put it away with a 38-yard run. McLaughlin was good from 30 yards away and the Bucs escaped with the 26-23 win to stay tied in the NFC South with Atlanta at 6-6 (tie-breaker still favors Atlanta).

A very close call that would have me worried the Bucs aren’t going to be good enough to run through this softer spot of the schedule after all to win the division. But it might not matter if the Falcons are going to keep playing the way they have against non-Tampa opponents.

Rams at Saints: The Drought Continues

One record streak ended and another streak continued in the Rams’ 21-14 road win over the Saints. First, I had no idea the Rams had an NFL-record 129 game streak of scoring in the first half. That ended with this one as they trailed 6-0 at the half, so that record is now within the sights of the Ravens, who are up to 124 games.

If you include playoff games, the Ravens just broke the record with a 102-game streak, surpassing the Rams (101 games). To the surprise of no one reading this, the Rams were shut out in the first half of Super Bowl 53 against the Patriots, so this technically wasn’t the first time a Sean McVay team did this. Just never in the regular season before Sunday.

At least they made up for it this time with three touchdown drives in the second half. But that left the door open for Derek Carr to finally lead the first fourth-quarter comeback win of his Saints’ career. He threw a perfect pass for a 28-yard touchdown to MVS, the savior of this receiving corps right now, and Dante Pettis (he’s still around?) caught the game-tying 2-point conversion to tie the game at 14.

But Stafford got on a hot streak and threw a touchdown to Puka Nacua to regain a 21-14 lead with 8:54 left. The Saints were putting together a drive that got very run heavy, and after losing Taysom Hill to an injury, they went to Alvin Kamara on three straight runs that brought up a 4th-and-3 at the LA 9 with just over a minute left as this drive was fixing to take up almost the last 9 minutes.

You can already sense the doom to come, and sure enough, Carr held the ball long enough for Jared Verse to get to him and force a game-sealing incompletion (nearly a strip-sack). I’m not sure anyone was open but Carr’s limited mobility hurts there as he had no chance to escape from Verse, who should be the DROY front-runner.

Guess the Saints will just have to wait another week to pull off a 4QC win.

Titans at Commanders: Early Knockout

Go figure. The Commanders struggled for the last three games on offense, and the Titans came into this game with the No. 1 defense in yards per drive allowed. Before you could blink it was 28-0 with the Commanders scoring four straight touchdowns to start the game. A couple were set up on short fields after the Titans fumbled twice, a problem for them this year.

But this was a nice bounce-back game for Jayden Daniels, who had 4 total touchdowns and worked on the short passing game to protect those ribs in a 42-19 win. The bye week comes at a great time to get healthy for the stretch run into the playoffs for this team. It’s still possible they could have that first 11-win season in the salary cap era.

Next week: It’s the last of the byes, so with six teams off, we’re peaking early with Packers-Lions on TNF. Should be a good one. I’ll be watching to see if the Steelers take the Browns more seriously this time in a game they really need to win if they want this division title with much tougher games to follow. Seattle-Arizona rematch is also in close timing with the first game, and that could go a long way in determining the NFC West winner. Chargers-Chiefs on SNF is bound to be interesting for obvious reasons. Monday night is just seeing if Cooper Rush can improve to 2-0 against Joe Burrow for two of the most disappointing teams in the league this year.  

NFL 2024 Week 13 Predictions: Running Back Showdown Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

This has already been an eventful Week 13 in the NFL with four games over Thanksgiving and Black Friday that led to the firing of head coach Matt Eberflus, a move you just had to make after one of the worst cases of clock management in NFL history.

But Antonio Pierce is also one of the worst coaches in close games, and he showed us why against the Chiefs on Friday when his team had a chance to pull off its own shocking upset. Of course, the people who know nothing about the rule book are going to complain about illegal shift being a dead-ball foul (it’s not), pretend a whistle was blown before the KC player recovered the ball (it wasn’t), and harp on a ref signaling false start as if we’ve never seen a line judge get something wrong, a conference corrects it, and they ultimately got the right call. Maybe just don’t snap the ball early and choke next time? Hell of a time for the Chiefs to finally get a takeaway though. I might need to fire up Part 2 of the Manning vs. Brady LOAT series after that one.

But that’s why we love the NFL. On paper, the Lions and Chiefs had easy games to get to 11-1, and yet both needed the worst coaches in close games to fumble badly (or literally) with the game on the line just to get the wins. Meanwhile, Dolphins-Packers was supposed to be the best game on paper, but it had the lowest drama and was easily won by the Packers. Of course, it’s an easy call that a Mike McDaniel team will come up small on the road in a big game like that. He’s now lost 12 or 13 straight road games to playoff teams (13 if Seattle qualifies this year; 12 if only Buffalo and Green Bay do).

That’s their thing. As for Sunday, we still have the big one in the late afternoon with the Eagles and Ravens, a game that will matter a lot for the MVP and OPOY races as well as division races and seeding.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 13 Predictions

I guess trusting the Chiefs to win a game by 13 points is insanity or else I could have been off to a perfect 4-0 ATS start to the week. At least the Chiefs held a 13-point lead in the third quarter. They just blew it in a matter of minutes to Aidan O’Connell. Christ, where is this season heading? At least we know swapping in a different left tackle could fix that problem, but what do they do about the defense? They’re getting shredded by some of the worst quarterbacks in the league on throws outside the numbers and down the field.

Anyways…

LAC-ATL: Justin Herbert has a pair of 20-17 wins over the Falcons in his career, and that sounds about right for what the Chargers are in 2024. Atlanta has been tough to figure out too, but I think this game will inevitably be close. But with the Chargers losing to the Ravens and having the Chiefs next week, I just don’t see them losing three in a row under Harbaugh here.

IND-NE: I was going to say it feels like eons ago since the Colts beat the Patriots, but of course there was the Bailey Zappe fake spike INT in Germany last year in a 10-6 game. While I still don’t trust the Colts with Anthony Richardson, that NE defense is bad enough that he could have a good game here and I’m going to trust the defense to keep the score down enough.

HOU-JAX: I wouldn’t advise betting real money on the Texans right now. Just something off with that team in many ways right now, and they already struggled to get the first win over this Jacksonville team, which is getting Trevor Lawrence back. But if they can hold him under 60% completions again, that’s his formula for losing.

SEA-NYJ: Does anyone realize the Seahawks haven’t scored 21 points in any of their last four games? I think the Jets can get Geno to make some mistakes and pull this one off coming out of the bye week. As much as we want to pretend Aaron Rodgers is playing terrible football this year, he’s serviceable enough to still get a win in a 20-17 type of game. Just don’t count on his kicker to make the last field goal.

PIT-CIN: This is where Mike Tomlin prefers to be: Counted out as a road underdog while people still hype the 4-7 Bengals going on a run. Sure, it could happen, but I’m going to trust the Steelers to bounce back in better weather, the Bengals are the one defense they actually moved the ball on when Matt Canada was the OC, and I’ll always trust Russell Wilson over Joe Burrow in a tight game. T.J. Watt also has to make up for a no-show in Cleveland.

TEN-WAS: I’m hedging with Titans covering and Commanders winning (maybe). Will Levis has been hitting some deep balls and this is a defense you can do that against. Still, I’m not betting on Calvin Ridley, who is on the banned list.

ARI-MIN: Gut says the Vikings can hit big plays against Arizona’s underwhelming defense, and you never know what to expect from Kyler Murray. Avoid a Sam Darnold pick parade and the Vikings should have this one, something you can say about most of their games this year.

TB-CAR: Panthers are playing better and you hate to trust any spread this big for the road team in a divisional game these days. But I think Mike Evans returns to the end zone and Bucky Irving has a good game. They won’t make Bryce Young look as good as the Chiefs did last week.

LAR-NO: Again, I’m going to keep taking the Saints in small spreads like this at home where they’re an underdog to a team that just got destroyed by Saquon Barkley. Imagine if Taysom Hill gashes them next. Plus, I’m still waiting for that first 4QC win for Carr in New Orleans. We have to get at least one in two seasons, right?

PHI-BAL: Here’s the big one with Lamar Jackson/Derrick Henry vs. Jalen Hurts/Saquon Barkley. I think you have to go with the Ravens at home as Lamar is 23-1 against the NFC, and Nick Sirianni hasn’t faced him yet. He played a Fangio defense last year (MIA) and threw 5 touchdowns. Threw for over 300 yards against Fangio’s Broncos too. Henry will be up for this one with the Barkley MVP hype that he hasn’t personally received this year. Also a bad week for Eagles to not have Darius Slay (concussion) and may not have DeVonta Smith either. We can say the Eagles are playing better defense than Baltimore this year, and I might trust Hurts more than Lamar at closing the game, but I don’t think you can bet against the Ravens at home in this one. Eagles have been beating up on non-playoff teams during this win streak.

SF-BUF: The SNF game that could have been epic, but we’ll see with these SF injuries. It does sound like Brock Purdy might play, so that’s a good thing. But the Bills are not a team that likes to win close, and they already have a 9-point win over the Chiefs this year. I think they can win by a touchdown here and drop the 49ers to 5-7. But hopefully the 49ers play with some real urgency in this one. Their playoff hopes are slipping every week and their blown leads have arguably more to do with that than the injuries, which have been terrible as well.

CLE-DEN: Not a great game to close the week. But I think Jameis can make enough throws to keep it close or get the backdoor cover.

NFL 2024 Week 12 Predictions: Harbaugh Bowl Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I feel some deja vu as it’s another weekend, I’m writing these predictions late at night, and my nose has been running since Thursday night. I went through the same thing for months last year where I often felt sick around the weekends and seemingly always tried to rush through these predictions.

So, I’m doing it again here, but I did just drop a 4 AM rant on Twitter (fvck off, Elon) about YAC, the Chiefs, and NextGenStats’ YAC Over Expected (YACOE) stat. Figured I did the data the other day and it didn’t share it anywhere, so I might as well get it out there before Sunday’s games.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1860247601511055634

Anyways, not a lot of good games this weekend, so it’s actually Monday night, the Ravens-Chargers Harbaugh Bowl, that I’m looking forward to the most here.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 12 Predictions

Taking Steelers -3.5 was one of my dumbest picks of the year as I warned about this being a typical “Steelers play down to the competition and probably lose” games under Tomlin, who coached one of his worst games ever. I should have at least said Browns +3.5 since you knew even if the Steelers won, it’d be by a FG at best. But they blew it. Baltimore rejoices.

Vikings-Bears: Nothing would surprise me but I’m just going to be content with the Vikings being better on both sides of the ball. And of course I think Eberflus is one of the worst coaches in NFL history in close games.

Bucs-Giants: Again, I was on the Tommy DeVito bandwagon for showing up Daniel Jones this week in his first start against a TB defense that gives up a lot of yards. But I’m cooling off that once I read that Malik Nabers missed Friday’s practice with a groin injury. That’s not good news for this passing game.

Patriots-Dolphins: I think Tua Tagovailoa will go to 7-0 against the Patriots, but I also think Drake Maye can keep it close enough for a cover against that defense.

Titans-Texans: Another division game, I just think the Texans can start rolling offensively with Collins and Mixon together, and I like the defense to sack Will Levis 5+ times and force some turnovers too.

Cowboys-Commanders: Yep, division games can be tricky, but I just think the Cowboys are mailing it in, Cooper Rush is trash, and Jayden Daniels will look sharper with a few extra days to rest since TNF last week. They’ve blown out several teams already this year too.

Chiefs-Panthers: The Chiefs haven’t really blown anyone out since Chicago last year, the Taylor Swift debut game. Sure, it should happen in Carolina, but with the way Chuba is running it, the way the Chiefs have played some spotty defense the last month, and the way the offense is always good for a mistake to deny itself points — throw in the backdoor cover too — and I’m still going with the classic Chiefs win but don’t cover.

Lions-Colts: I see potential for a 30-20 game where Anthony Richardson makes plays but just can’t keep up with that Detroit machine in the end.

Broncos-Raiders: Okay, that’s 7 division games this week. The Raiders were unbeatable for the Broncos in 2020-23, but I think Denver pulls off the sweep here. It was 34-18 last time and Bo Nix is playing with more confidence now.

49ers-Packers: I was so tempted to take SF +5.5, but it’s not just Brock Purdy being replaced by Brandon Allen. Nick Bosa is banged up and out too. I think even Trent Williams has something going on this week, so it truly is an injury-ravaged season for the 49ers at 5-5, and a game like this could squash them for the wild card, leaving the NFC West title as their only playoff path. Bad timing for a Purdy injury. Of course, a Jordan Love pick parade can turn this one in SF’s favor, but I think he protects the ball and makes up for the playoff loss the best he can with a win here.

Cardinals-Seahawks: Could actually turn out to be the best game or at least the best 4Q on Sunday. Late slate anyway. I’m going to take Seattle at home to edge them out with perhaps another GWD by Geno. That’s how these games have gone in the NFC West this year. Someone makes a 4QC. But both are capable and I’m not surprised it’s the smallest spread of the week.

Eagles-Rams: Saw some splits that made me want to take the Rams, but I just think the Eagles have too many weapons for this bland defense to stop, and the Eagles have the secondary this year to deal with Nacua and Kupp better. Even last year they shut them out after halftime with that bad Philly defense.

Ravens-Chargers: Read my Week 12 picks for a parlay and game script for this one. I think the Ravens make up for last week and get a win in a 23-20 or 27-24 type of game, and I think a little Chargering returns to completion this time on the other side after nearly giving it up to the Bengals last week. But it should be a good one.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 11

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I hyped Week 11 as the best Sunday in the NFL this season, and it mostly delivered on that front. The three biggest games were all within one score in the fourth quarter, and it was certainly a pivotal day as Kansas City’s 15-game winning streak ended, and there’s a very good chance the Bills won’t have to worry about going on the road in the playoffs to play teams they’ve lost to like the Ravens and Texans.

But it was a strong week for home-field advantage in big games as the Eagles (Thursday night), Steelers, Bills, and Chargers all won at home in their key matchups. I know home-field advantage is only around 53% this season, which is better than the pandemic years, but it’s still below the usual standard of 57-58%. But I do think you’d still rather be at home than not, and I think it’s especially important for these teams still trying to break through the Kansas City stranglehold in the AFC and get to the Super Bowl like the Ravens, Bills, Steelers, etc.

We had eight games with a comeback opportunity, no team has come back from a 10-point deficit to win this week, but God knows the Chargers tried to give one away. We also had a walk-off blocked field goal for the second week in a row, so that’s wild. Pretty bad week for some kickers who were very recently considered among the best in the league, including Jake Elliott (Eagles), Justin Tucker (Ravens), and Evan McPherson (Bengals).

Still one game to go Monday night, but I think a healthier Houston team does give the AFC a legitimate six-team race for the playoffs. Kansas City’s three-peat path has gotten harder. But on the bright side, they can forget the undefeated talk. They weren’t going to win 26 games in a row to get a three-peat, and while that would be the ultimate achievement in NFL history, I can’t even imagine the pressure that’d leave on the team each week. Plus, they may not have to worry about trying to win in Denver in Week 18 against a Sean Payton (Mr. Bountygate) team that might need to make the playoffs with a win.

But really, this season might just come down to seeing if anyone can make the Lions pay for a Jared Goff pick parade by scoring enough points to beat Detroit in the Super Bowl.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Bills: Mahomes vs. Allen Chapter VIII – Josh Takes Manhattan

The first Kansas City loss since last Christmas is sure to delight many, but I’m not sure it makes that big of an impact on the season. No magical “blueprint” was shown on how to beat the Chiefs, and if it was, hardly any team but Buffalo is equipped to execute it. And I’m not convinced Buffalo can win this game in January, which could still very well be in Arrowhead as the Chiefs are still in first place, the same way it did here.

I’ll get to the Chiefs later, but let’s start by focusing on what Buffalo did well. They clearly care a lot about this rivalry, and we’ve joked (while probably being accurate) that Kansas City has been their Super Bowl in the regular season for four years now. Maybe five if you count the first meeting back in 2020.

But they clearly played a sharp game, and I think Josh Allen has seen Steve Spagnuolo’s defense and blitzes so much every year that he’s an expert at picking them apart. He knows when to run, when to get rid of it quickly, and when to hold it for the big play. That doesn’t mean he always executes, but he didn’t take a sack in this game, and he was money on a lot of big third downs, which is usually a must to beat the Chiefs. Buffalo was 9-of-15 on third down and that doesn’t include a huge penalty on a third-and-9 late in the third quarter on a drive that led to a touchdown and 23-14 lead.

But you saw Amari Cooper chip in a 30-yard one-handed catch on the first third down. Khalil Shakir held onto a clutch 3rd-and-8 pass even when he took a big shot at the end of it. Curtis Samuel played well as they got a touchdown on a pick play. The running backs couldn’t really get anywhere, but when it was 4th-and-2 at the Kansas City 26 with 2:27 left in a 23-21 game, there was never any doubt the Bills were going for it and who they were going to let make the play. Allen took off for 26 yards, and while I’m not sure I agree with Jim Nantz that it’s the play of the year, it’s a candidate as he finished the play for a touchdown to make it 30-21 with 2:17 left.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1858303241391427722

As I expected after another Lamar egg in Pittsburgh, Allen’s performance has him as the new MVP favorite (+150 at FanDuel) as the Bills go into their bye week. It was hardly his best game against the Chiefs as I’m sure he’d like to have the interception on a fourth down back, but he scored 30 points on 9 drives against a team that hadn’t given up more than 27 points in the last 30 games. That streak is toast as are many for the Chiefs.

It’s the first loss for the Chiefs since Christmas 2023, but every Kansas City loss is Christmas for members of the Tom Brady cult who have nothing else to celebrate these days. I just want to highlight one of them from Twitter here by explaining in detail why I think it’s silly to pin this loss on the quarterback as the Chiefs have far more pressing issues.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1858314686078288122

First, there’s a reason Mahomes had a decent 63.3 QBR in this game despite throwing two interceptions and not registering a single rush attempt when we know QB runs inflate QBR more than anything.

It’s because Mahomes didn’t make many mistakes in this game.

Yep, he was intercepted on his first dropback of the day, a bad decision to force a throw instead of taking a sack. But like half of his picks this year, it came early with the maximum time to make up for it.

But this would be the 7th game this season where the Chiefs only had 8 or 9 offensive possessions in a game, so it does make every turnover mean a little more when you just don’t get that many chances with the ball because of the way you play ball-control offense and the way the defense isn’t as good at getting stops (turnovers or otherwise) as people pretend.

A problem not going away for the Chiefs that could ultimately lead to their undoing is the offensive tackle play. That led to some sacks and pressure in this game, which ended their second drive too. But Mahomes threw a touchdown to Xavier Worthy, who had a huge first quarter. However, instead of this being the turning point game for him, he did the same thing he did against Tampa Bay and didn’t get his feet in on what should have been a 30-yard play. Could the throw have been a little better? Yes, but it was in bounds enough that a competent receiver makes the catch. This can’t keep happening, and that killed another drive as the pressure came afterwards for another 3-and-out.

Mahomes followed Allen’s pick with a touchdown drive on a short field, but his defense still gave up a field goal to trail 16-14 at halftime. There was no scoring in the third quarter, but someone please let me know where I’m supposed to be criticizing Mahomes.

The Chiefs only had the ball four times after halftime. Was it Mahomes who got stuffed on a 3rd-and-1 run for another three-and-out? No, that was Kareen Hunt and the line. When Mahomes set up a 3rd-and-1 at midfield on a scramble, a holding penalty brought it back to 2nd-and-14, DeAndre Hopkins couldn’t come down with a good throw while being defended well, and that was another punt. I think without the holding penalty, Mahomes probably has a great shot of leading a go-ahead drive on this one.

Suddenly, the game’s in the fourth quarter and the Chiefs are down 23-14. Mahomes put together one of the team’s best drives this season as they never even faced a third down, avoided any penalties, and he threw his third touchdown to make it 23-21 with 7:53 left. Game on. Why they don’t play with urgency and tempo like that more often is beyond me.

But that’s usually the spot where the defense makes a play. Gets the ball back or at least holds them to a field goal. That’s also the spot where Allen usually makes some mistake like forcing deep balls when he shouldn’t, but none of that happened this time. He ran for a 26-yard touchdown on fourth down instead, and now it’s 30-21 with 2:17 and you need a miracle.

Again, I think Mahomes would have got a score (field goal or touchdown) here had it not been for yet another holding penalty to wipe out an 18-yard scramble to the Buffalo 34. Instead of converting, that made it 4th-and-13, and at that point you’re forcing a throw down the field to Kelce, who just stopped after one of the worst games of his career and watched the defender make the game-ending pick. But the game was already lost before that unless you think they’re recovering an onside kick and scoring again.

So, you tell me where I’m supposed to be finding so much fault on his play. A pick on the first play didn’t lose the game, and they were already losing by two scores when the last play happened. But I guess if you ignore every single thing in between those two plays, it was a pretty awful day for Mahomes.

A loss isn’t the worst thing in the world for a team that needs to be humbled sometimes. They have issues that need to be fixed. When the NBC crew did the halftime highlight for this game, all they mentioned was Mahomes’ weapons. Not a whiff about the offensive line or the defense not getting enough stops, especially with the game in the balance these last few weeks.

I actually think they have too many weapons in a way, and that Andy Reid is doing a poor job of trying to use everybody he can instead of finding who he can trust. A week ago against Denver, Kelce (8) and Hunt (7) had 15 catches between them. In this game, they had a combined 2 catches for 8 yards, and Hunt wasn’t even targeted. Oh, they still completed passes to 11 different receivers, including an eligible lineman, but I’m not sure that accomplished the right goals if Xavier Worthy is the only player who broke 30 receiving yards.

I’m not even sure bringing Pacheco and Hollywood Brown into the mix later is a good thing if they can’t seem to figure out how to properly use what they have. That touchdown drive in the fourth quarter showed how well they can still move the ball when they need to. They need to tap into that, because the days of an elite defense look to be over in Kansas City. Going to have to start scoring more points in games like this.

They don’t need an elite defense to win a Super Bowl, but they aren’t winning 34-30 games on the road in January with the way they’re playing this year. Last January, this defense was about to ruin the repeat by giving the Bills 24 points on just 5 drives. It took a couple of run stuffs and good fortune with Buffalo’s receivers not hauling in some deep balls to turn the tide that day, including a missed field goal by Tyler Bass.

On Sunday, the Bills didn’t make those mistakes, and Allen got the best of them again as he did in 2021, 2022, and 2023. We’ll see if it translates to January should they meet again. While the Chiefs will look different in that matchup, so will the Bills, and we’ll just have to see who makes the decisive plays that day.

Ravens at Steelers: The Rivalry Lives Up to the Hype

Sure, I liked the under, but this was even more on brand for Ravens-Steelers than I imagined. The 18-16 score is kind of Mike Tomlin’s jam as he won two playoff games (2015 Bengals and 2016 Chiefs) by that score, and this is third time in the last decade he’s won a game with six field goals and no touchdowns. The rest of the league has three in that time.

But you have to laugh at how these teams will play the same kind of “neither to 20, first to bleed loses” games no matter who the quarterbacks are and what their offenses are like. The Ravens had a high-flying offense this year and it didn’t matter. The Steelers were scoring a lot and moving the ball well under Russell Wilson and it didn’t matter.

These teams made each other fight for every yard, and it wasn’t pretty, but it was damn entertaining, and once again the Steelers made more plays. The Ravens started the game on the wrong foot with a Derrick Henry fumble, something you rarely see. Isaiah Likely also coughed up a bad fumble before halftime deep in his own end, Justin Tucker is apparently washed as he missed two makeable field goals, the Ravens had 12 penalties, and rookie linebacker Payton Wilson stole an interception from the hands of Justice Hill in the fourth quarter. The Ravens were incredibly sloppy in this game.

That’s not to say the Steelers were sharp. While they held the ball for over 36 minutes, they were 4-of-16 on third down and couldn’t finish in the end zone even once. While Russell Wilson threw a handful of passes away due to pressure, he picked the worst moment ever to force a terrible throw in the end zone, which was intercepted with 9:23 left when the Steelers could have kicked a short one to take an 18-10 lead. Fortunately, the Payton Wilson pick happened a few plays later and the Steelers eventually did go up 18-10. But this was Wilson’s worst game at quarterback this season, and it’s a good thing the defense had his back.

But on their 12th and final possession, the Ravens finally put together some third-down conversions and completions to wide receivers. The drive ended with a Zay Flowers touchdown with 1:06 left, but the Ravens needed a 2-point conversion to tie. You just knew they would keep the ball in Jackson’s hands, but it was still surprising to not see Henry on the field. I’m not sure the Ravens really knew what they were trying to do on the play, and Jackson was forced to throw it up for grabs before taking a sack:

https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1858257907093262337

Jackson is now 5-for-12 on 2-point conversions in the fourth quarter (2-for-8 when trailing) in his career. That’s why I would have liked to see them score in Kansas City on opening night since you know they were going to go for the victory with a 2PC, and you know they’d go to Jackson as they always do. But it’s hard to say their success rate is reassuring in these moments, and this reminded me of the 2021 game in Pittsburgh where T.J. Watt got to Jackson on the game-deciding 2PC in a 20-19 win for the Steelers.

But the game wasn’t over since the Ravens had all three timeouts left. The Steelers brought in Justin Fields on 2nd-and-9 and had a good call with the QB keeper, except he made an awful decision when he slid too early and was a yard short, bringing up 3rd-and-1 instead of clinching the win. That slide rule is something that coaches need to teach these quarterbacks better. It’s over once you start the sliding motion, and there was enough room for Fields to win the game there.

The Steelers had some major issues with 1 yard to go Sunday, but with the game on the line, they gave it to Najee Harris and he grinded it out for the win. The Steelers are now 8-1 against the Ravens since 2020 and most of them have looked like some variation of this.

It’s a tough loss for the Ravens since it’s so hard to say “we’ll get them next time” when seemingly each meeting looks something on the order of this. If the playoffs started today, it would be Steelers at Ravens in the wild card round too in the 6-3 matchup. That’s not ideal for the Ravens nor is being a wild card team in general.

But in one of my favorite stats this year, the Ravens have already lost to all the same teams or quarterbacks they lost to last year (Gardner Minshew, Browns, Steelers, and Chiefs).

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1858259679844942334

A great win for the Steelers (8-2), but I think it’s also a reminder of why they excel against the Ravens and struggle so much with teams like Buffalo and Kansas City. They have to score more against those quarterbacks and they just struggle to stop them better since they are more decisive passers than Jackson, who was again looking confused by this defense in his fifth meeting with them. He was far from the only problem as the Ravens shit the bed in a variety of ways, but his play against this defense doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Bengals at Chargers: Jim Harbaugh’s Memorable Island Game Debut Teases Chargering Before Winning the Game

Let me just paste in my framing of this game from Friday night’s predictions:

Bengals-Chargers: I see this game going one of two ways. It could be a return to Chargering for Jim Harbaugh’s home debut in prime time, meaning a game where everything goes great for a half or three quarters, then they implode and lose to a hungry Cincinnati team that has been close most weeks and needs to avoid going 4-7. But the Bengals also are bad at winning close games like that. So, maybe it’s just a validation that the Chargers are different under Harbaugh, and he’s going to frustrate Joe Burrow with his defense that still hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game, and Justin Herbert is going to carve this defense up with his new receivers.

Yep, it was Chargering, but things are different under Jim Harbaugh, so the team still escaped with a 34-27 win. It was also classic Bengals, putting up some stats and making a rally effort only to come up short again in a close game to fall to 4-7. Their brand might be the only brand that can outdo Chargering right now.

Funny how some games play out exactly like you expected. I knew better than to say anything definitive about the Chargers when they were up 27-6 in the third quarter and Justin Herbert was shredding that defense. I’ve seen this movie too many times. Before you know it, the Chargers are giving up touchdowns on fourth downs, Herbert is fumbling after the ball hits a defender’s shin, Burrow is getting short fields, and just like that it’s tied at 27.

But then I’ve seen this before from the Bengals too often as well. You get a chance to take the lead and probably win the game, and you start misfiring on throws. You start getting stuffed in the backfield, dropping passes, penalties, etc. The kicks are longer, and Evan McPherson is not as good as he was a couple of years ago. He misses from 48 yards with half a quarter to go, he misses from 51 with 1:48 left after a couple more Burrow incompletions didn’t make it easier.

But it’s not like the Chargers made it look easy. Herbert flirted with some dangerous throws, missed some wide-open throws, and it ultimately took six possessions before the Chargers finally added to their 27 points with another score. I was starting to think this one was headed for a 27-27 overtime tie or a defense to win it on a return touchdown.

But with 45 seconds left at his own 16, Herbert finally stepped up with some great throws to Ladd McConkey for 55 yards, and J.K. Dobbins finished it off with a 29-yard touchdown run that I’m not sure he really expected to score on as he said he was. You also see why teams like to go down there and kick the field goal, because after scoring with 18 seconds left, the Bengals still had time to set up a very realistic Hail Mary at the end.

I’m not saying Dobbins screwed up by scoring the touchdown that was there, but it’s not the ideal way to finish a game like this and we saw it play out. But the Chargers were able to bat down the Hail Mary and hang on for the 34-27 win. Their 7-3 start ties 2018 for their best 10-game start in the last 15 years.

Watching these teams make so many mistakes when it was 27-27 is a good reminder of why it’s hard to take either seriously for the postseason. But by winning this game, the Chargers have a great shot of being there while being a problem for any team as long as they avoid Chargering as much as possible.

But the difference is they didn’t lose this game like they have in the past. That has to count for something.

Packers at Bears: Walk-Off Blocks Are Pretty Cool

Matt LaFleur was 10-0 against the Bears with every win by at least 7 points. He’s 11-0 now, but this was definitely the hardest win yet. The Packers could not get the Bears off the field on third down that often (9-of-16) as the new offense in the first game after firing Shane Waldron had success. They also held the ball for nearly 37 minutes, so the Packers were just 1-of-5 on third down and Jordan Love only threw 17 passes.

But Love still found Christian Watson on some big plays, resulting in 150 yards on 4 catches. Love was also in a scrambling mood in the fourth quarter, and his legs got him in the end zone with 2:59 left. But it was only a 20-19 lead after the 2-point conversion fail, which feels like every 2PC is failing these days in the NFL.

That opened the door for the Bears to win on a field goal, and for all the justified criticism Caleb Williams has been receiving, this was a huge moment for him. He delivered too as he shook off a pair of sacks at the two-minute warning and overcame a 3rd-and-19 situation.

But let’s not forget that the Bears are horrible in close games under Matt Eberflus. I can understand wanting to be a little conservative at the Green Bay 30 with 35 seconds and one timeout left when your rookie takes a lot of sacks. One there could be deadly.

But to just run for 2 yards and accept the fate of a 46-yard field goal with the so-so Cairo Santos as your kicker? I’m not a fan of that. Sure enough, the Packers pulled off the 46-yard block to win the game just like the Chiefs did to Denver last week.

That has to be one of the worst ways the Bears have ever lost to their bitter rival. But I have to say I like this if we’re going to see endings like this more often. Kickers were getting too good that you just have to pray they’d miss on anything under 50 yards. But instead of hoping the kicker chokes, why not do something about it and step up with a game-deciding block? I’m cool with that.

It also doesn’t hurt that Packers-Chiefs was my preseason Super Bowl pick and they’ve been the biggest beneficiaries of making these blocks this season. But the key thing is they made the block happen. They earned it.

Seahawks at 49ers: Some Wunderkind

Does anyone want the NFC West this year? Another game and another blown lead by the 49ers. But the 20-17 final is misleading as this was a low-possession game, so it was more offensive than that score suggests. But just when you think the 49ers are going to win after taking a 17-13 lead on a touchdown pass to Jauan Jennings, they give up another game-winning drive to Geno Smith after already doing so this season to Matthew Stafford (Rams) and Kyler Murray (Cardinals).

Geno was 0-6 against this team since 2022, but after his run game failed him on a 4th-and-1 earlier in the quarter, his defense got him another chance with 2:38 left, and his 80-yard game-winning drive was as good as any in his career. He had just 18 seconds and no timeouts left when he made the bold decision to scramble for the end zone, and I’m surprised he made it the full 13 yards without getting blown up and ending the game short of the end zone.

https://twitter.com/KoleMusgrove23/status/1858302134795862120

Awful defense. But remember when the 49ers were going to get better with Christian McCaffrey back? Their five longest plays in this game gained 12-to-22 yards, Jennings had four of them, and a Brock Purdy scramble for 13 yards was the other one.

The 49ers (5-5) are not a serious threat anymore. Not like this.

Jaguars at Lions: Nearly Offensive Perfection

Look, if the Jaguars want to fire Doug Pederson after this, I’m not going to say they are wrong. It’s almost certainly going to happen after the season, so if they want to use him as the scapegoat for one of the worst defensive performances in NFL history, then go ahead. It’s not like they were going to win this game with Mac Jones as the biggest underdog (+13.5) of the 2024 season, but Christ, get a stop on the other side of the ball.

Jared Goff went from throwing 5 picks last week to leading 7 straight touchdown drives in this game. He had a perfect passer rating on 29 attempts with 412 yards, so that’s a huge stat line. The only other quarterback I know to go a perfect 7-for-7 at leading touchdown drives was Josh Allen in the 2021 playoffs against New England.

The Lions took Goff out after the seventh touchdown, they scored a field goal on their eighth drive with Hendon Hooker, then they ran out the clock (all 6:45 of it, mind you) on their 52-6 win on the ninth drive.

That’s pretty close to offensive perfection. They won’t get as much credit as Buffalo given the lousy opponent and it wasn’t a playoff game, but this is up there for pure domination. The Lions had 38 first downs and 645 yards. They were 6-of-10 on third down and 3-of-3 on fourth down.

The Lions shouldn’t have an easier game the rest of the season, so this might be their most impressive form yet, but it’s a strong game from a historic perspective.

Colts at Jets: Anthony Richardson’s First Comeback Against a Familiar Foe

In his rookie season in 1998, Peyton Manning had a big moment when he led the first fourth-quarter comeback win of his career against the Jets, who had a great team that year. Well, Anthony Richardson won’t ever touch Manning’s legacy, which I can say with confidence, but he had a much-needed performance against the Jets after getting the starting job back from Joe Flacco.

Richardson was able to complete 20-of-30 passes for 272 yards, he only had one turnover, and he came back from a 24-16 deficit in the fourth quarter with a couple of touchdown drives. He ran in the go-ahead score with 46 seconds left and the defense was able to make it hold up for a 28-27 win.

For Aaron Rodgers, it was a brutal start again after falling behind 13-0. They had the lead late once again, but the Jets blew their third lead of the season. There was enough time to set up a winning kick, but we know those haven’t gone well for them this season either.

What has? The Jets are 3-8 and going into the bye week in one of the most embarrassing seasons in team history, which says a lot given their history.

Falcons at Broncos: Unexpected Blowout of the Week

Whoops, I thought this would be a 1-to-7 point game and it ended up being one of the biggest blowouts of the season with Denver taking it 38-6. I guess we can’t take it for granted that every Kirk Cousins game is supposed to be close as this was already the third time they’ve had a game decided by 18+ points this year.

But this was just an ass-kicking from Denver, and any concern of how they’d bounce back from the upsetting Kansas City loss was wiped away early with Bo Nix having his best game yet with 307 yards and 4 touchdowns on 28-of-33 passing. That’s some Drew Brees type of numbers.

The Falcons (6-5) are still in decent shape in the NFC South, but they might just be fodder for an NFC North runner-up this year. As for the Broncos, they’re eying the No. 7 seed and possibly better. It’s a hard team to figure out but they have had some impressive wins already, and this was another for sure.

Raiders at Dolphins: Good Tight End At Least

Wasn’t expecting the pinnacle of tight end play to come from this game, but Brock Bowers (13-126-1) and Jonnu Smith (6-101-2) showed up for their teams in this 34-19 win for the Dolphins.

In fact, Smith’s long second touchdown put the game away just when it looked like the Raiders could maybe get the ball back late in a 24-19 game. Look, the Raiders need a new coach and quarterback in 2025, but at least they have a heck of a weapon in Bowers. Not doing anything for their complete inability to run the ball, but he can play.

Browns at Saints: Taysom Hill Carrying Derek Carr Again

I have no clue why the Browns (-1.5) were a road favorite in New Orleans, but someone underestimated Tayson Hill having one of the greatest games in NFL history. The Stormin’ Mormon ran the ball 7 times for 138 yards and 3 touchdowns, which is already one of the craziest stat lines in NFL history. Only 21 players are known to have scored 3 rushing touchdowns on no more than 7 runs in a game, but Roland Hooks (1979 Bills) is the only one known to have surpassed 45 rushing yards as he had 70 in a game where he scored 4 touchdowns on 5 carries. But Hill blew that away with 138 yards, including 33 yards on what was technically the game-winning touchdown to break a 14-14 tie with 13:22 left. Hill later iced it with a 75-yard touchdown run with 2:26 left.

Just on that alone it’s a historic stat line. But Hill also caught 8-of-10 targets for 50 yards to lead the team in catches. He completed 1-of-2 passes for 18 yards and an interception, so maybe leave those plays to Derek Carr. But on top of all of that, Hill had a 42-yard kickoff return. That’s 230 all-purpose yards. Maybe 248 if we’re counting the pass completion.

What the hell? The funny part is this is Derek Carr’s second game-winning drive with the Saints, and he was 0-for-3 by success rate to start the quarter before Hill took off for the winning touchdown in a game they’d win by 3 touchdowns. Last year, Carr’s only game-winning drive was a touchdown pass thrown by Hill to break a 17-17 tie with the Bears.

So, that’s two game-winning touchdowns where Hill did the heavy lifting instead of Carr. But what a game for one of the most unique players in NFL history.

Also, I’m absolutely stunned that Jameis Winston passed for 395 yards and the Browns only scored 14 points despite not committing a single turnover. They ended up missing two field goals and turned it over on downs twice, so that at least helps make some sense of that one.

But Hill’s uncanny success? It’s hard to explain. Marquez Valdes-Scantling scoring another big touchdown for the Saints after the Chiefs didn’t want him back and the Bills couldn’t wait to get rid of him is also another strange development with the 2024 Saints.

Maybe the Pope did bless them. Does the Pope support LDS? I don’t know.

Vikings at Titans: Your Standard Ho-Hum Win for a Second-Place 8-2 Team

The Vikings continued their tour of the AFC South, but compared to last week’s 12-7 squeaker in Jacksonville, this was a much more comfortable, low-drama 23-13 win against the Titans. Neither team could run the ball a lick, but Minnesota limited the turnovers to a bad pitch to start the game, shook off Will Levis hitting a 98-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter, and didn’t give up any other touchdowns the whole game while also sacking him 5 times.

Rams at Patriots: Defense Closes for McVay Again

I swear Sean McVay’s Rams can never just close games with the four-minute offense. Even after taking a 28-13 lead into the final quarter, it was still 28-22 in the final minutes as Drake Maye gave them a lot to handle with a 30-of-40 passing day for nearly 300 yards. Another first down could have iced this one, but the Rams ended up punting from the New England 35, which is sadly on brand for McVay in these moments.

Fortunately, the defense had his back as they picked off Maye on a 3rd-and-13 desperation heave with 1:47 left to ice the win and get the team back to .500. A sack coming out of the two-minute warning just blew that drive up for the Patriots, but what’s happened to the defense in New England? That’s supposed to be Jerod Mayo’s specialty and his unit was carved up again by Stafford for four touchdowns from an offense that couldn’t get in the end zone once on Monday night against Miami.

Next week: Week 12 looks like that rare week where you’re waiting for Monday night (Ravens-Chargers Har-Bowl) for the best game. But I can see they didn’t have much left for a follow-up to Week 11 as six teams are on a bye and it really shows. I guess Steelers-Browns could be decent on Thursday night if the Steelers bring their usual “small game” approach to it and Jameis shows up dealing. 49ers-Packers has lost luster but might be able to save the Sunday afternoon slate. Not very intrigued by Rams-Eagles on Sunday night. But a light week before a football overload on Thanksgiving is not a bad idea to be honest. They can’t all be loaded.   

NFL 2024 Week 11 Predictions: Epic Sunday Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Week 11 in the NFL was always the Sunday to circle in the 2024 season. Sure, there’s that stretch in Weeks 16-17 (12/21 to 12/25) that I wrote about in multiple offseason articles as the key pressure points for everything from the MVP race to the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and that still should be true when the Chiefs play the Texans and Steelers in a span of 5 days, and we’ll also see the Ravens play the Steelers and Texans.

But those games are taking place on Saturday and Wednesday. As far as Sundays go, Week 11 is the big one that could be decisive in the final playoff standings. We’ve already seen the pivotal NFC East game on Thursday night with the Eagles taking a considerable lead over the Commanders. Next, we’ll see a similar AFC North game between the Ravens and Steelers, the Chiefs-Bills showdown with No. 1 seed implications, and Bengals-Chargers is big for the wild card race.

At least one of these epic games should be fantastic and memorable, but we’ll see. We’ve been bamboozled before.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 11 Predictions

I had the Eagles winning Thursday night, but I have to say I’m disappointed in Washington. I don’t know if the ribs are still bothering Jayden Daniels or what, but that was his worst game of the season. He couldn’t hit anything over 5 yards, and I don’t know what happened to the run defense in the fourth quarter, or why they didn’t just kick a field goal when they had a chance to go up 13-12. Just a bad game and not a good feeling to lose two games in five days.

Let me do the big games first.

Ravens-Steelers: Pittsburgh is 7-1 in this rivalry since 2020, and they’ve been within one score (or better) in 16 of 18 meetings, so there is almost no recent history of the Steelers losing convincingly to Baltimore. This rivalry loves producing a close finish no matter which quarterback is playing for either team. This is a rare case where QB1 for each team is playing, but the Steelers have been one of Lamar Jackson’s kryptonite teams to go along with the Chiefs and the postseason in general. He hasn’t played them much (4 starts), but the Steelers should be better prepared for this offense than most of the Baltimore schedule. You see the way they eat up NFC teams each year. That shouldn’t happen here.

But I understand why the Ravens are favored as their offense has topped 20 points every week. They’ve been close in every loss. The Steelers are a little scattershot with the offense, but you have to think Russell Wilson can hang in there and deliver some deep balls against that secondary as I expect big things from George Pickens. But it should come down to the usual things like turnovers and who can finish the job. I actually think Wilson has a great shot at delivering another game-winning drive this week as we know the Ravens have blown many leads since 2022. But I will hedge it a bit and take the Ravens to win, Steelers to cover. If Gardner Minshew and Jameis can beat this team…But I expect a battle either way.

Chiefs-Bills: I’m actually surprised the Chiefs are +2.5 in this one. We know they have great success as underdogs in the Mahomes era, but the Bills won’t have Dalton Kincaid or Keon Coleman. Amari Cooper is supposed to play but probably isn’t 100%, and the Chiefs defend WR1’s very well. It just feels like a low-scoring game is about to go down, and that favors the Chiefs, who are so used to winning tight games. Maybe the winning streak is living on borrowed time after last week’s blocked FG saved it, but I still think the Chiefs are the better team, and I think a playoff rematch would look more offensive from both sides. KC isn’t going to cry for Buffalo’s injuries after everything they’ve been through this year with their injuries.

But there is an injury I have my eye on and that’s kicker Harrison Butker. I just wrote that article about Mahomes’ luck with clutch kicking relative to Brady, and it wouldn’t shock me if the Chiefs’ winning streak and perfect season bid ends because their new inexperienced kicker fails on a clutch FG. Call it payback for Tyler Bass missing in last January’s playoff game.

So, I don’t have a great feeling about the Chiefs this Sunday, but I still think they win. At this point, how can you bet against them? But Buffalo has defeated them in three straight regular seasons, so this one might be the biggest challenge left for 17-0.

Bengals-Chargers: I see this game going one of two ways. It could be a return to Chargering for Jim Harbaugh’s home debut in prime time, meaning a game where everything goes great for a half or three quarters, then they implode and lose to a hungry Cincinnati team that has been close most weeks and needs to avoid going 4-7. But the Bengals also are bad at winning close games like that. So, maybe it’s just a validation that the Chargers are different under Harbaugh, and he’s going to frustrate Joe Burrow with his defense that still hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game, and Justin Herbert is going to carve this defense up with his new receivers.

I believe in Harbaugh and Herbert more than I do Burrow and Zac Taylor, so I am going with the Chargers here. But I will acknowledge it’s a step up in competition for the defense to cover a weapon like Ja’Marr Chase, who is on fire right now. Picking him for OPOY before Week 1 doesn’t look so bad now.

But this should be a nice, lower stakes game to end what will hopefully be an incredible Sunday.

Jaguars-Lions: Seriously, Mac Jones against a scoring juggernaut? That doesn’t seem fair.

Packers-Bears: Matt LaFleur is 10-0 against the Bears with every win by 7+ points. Let’s back him to keep it rolling while the Bears are in “they are who we thought they were” mode.

Rams-Patriots: I don’t like what I’m seeing from the Rams right now. I think the Patriots can frustrate Stafford enough to require him to win it late on a FG.

Browns-Saints: Surprised Cleveland is favored, because this team hasn’t been good even outside of QB play this year. But the Saints have obviously struggled too. Still, I’m banking on that no 4QC streak for New Orleans to end, and I could see Jameis throwing a game-ending pick in his return to NOLA.

Vikings-Titans: Similar to last week, right? Vikings -5.5 on the road against a bad AFC South team with shoddy QB play expected. But they almost blew it in Jacksonville last week. The Titans play better defense and could really limit the yards Sam Darnold gains while forcing turnovers he’s all too willing to give up. I really want to take TEN +5.5, then I just remember the stupid shit Will Levis does on a football field and figure Brian Flores will find a way to bring that out enough. Not a game I plan on betting on though.

Colts-Jets: Anthony Richardson is back, and I guess I’m back on the Jets? Two teams not going anywhere right now.

Raiders-Dolphins: It was a 20-13 game when they played last year in Miami. Could see something similar, so I’ll give the Raiders a shot at a push or cover after their bye.

Seahawks-49ers: The 49ers own Geno Smith (6-0 since 2022), and I think they complete the sweep here with a 7-point win or better. Healthier offense. Already beat them on the road by 12 even though they tried to give that game away too. They should probably stop doing that this season.

Falcons-Broncos: Ah, the teams who couldn’t stop a 35-yd FG from getting blocked last week. I think the Falcons have the better overall roster, but I have to trust Sean Payton against a former division rival to find a way at home to get it done. I could see Kirk Cousins failing on a GWD again this week. Get Patrick Surtain to limit Drake London.

Texans-Cowboys: This should have been a good MNF game, but the Cowboys are ass and the Texans need to get out of prime time until they start playing better. I fully expect them to beat Cooper Rush, but I’m still going Dallas +7.5 just in case. I don’t trust a team that lost at home after getting 5 INTs last week. They also nearly gave away a game to Buffalo where Allen was 9-of-30. Something just isn’t right in Houston this year.

Hopefully I’ll be back Sunday night with recaps that mean something on the biggest games. It won’t be a RedZone day at all for me. Going to watch BAL-PIT and KC-BUF straight through.

NFL 2024 Week 10 Predictions: All Eyes on Washington Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

If you thought the title would be a nod to the 2024 election this week, you’d be right. If you think I’m going to give Orange Caligula any more oxygen in this space right now, you’d be wrong. He should die of gonorrhea and rot in hell. The Washington I’m watching this weekend is the Commanders, and I’m excited to finally see a full live game with Jayden Daniels. I think Steelers-Commanders is clearly the highlight game on Sunday, and we’ll see if a return by Nico Collins in Houston could bolster that matchup on SNF.

But I also want to quickly point out that Week 9 was a great reminder that you don’t always have to pick underdogs just for the sake of picking them. I’ve been guilty of that a lot this season as I didn’t want to just publish picks where the favorite covers and wins. But in Week 9, favorites were 14-1 SU (God damn Saints) and 10-5 ATS. Almost perfect.

Favorites have been on a good run after a lot of upsets early this season in the games with the biggest spreads. But now that we’re into the second half of the 2024 regular season, we are seeing this is a top-heavy season. There are nine teams with just 2 wins going into Sunday. The last team who makes the playoffs in the AFC could be a mess unless the Bengals or Jets finish strong. The NFC is stronger, but the NFC West has been messy with the teams blowing double-digit leads against each other as they jumble around .500 right now. The Cowboys have fallen apart sooner than expected.

It’s getting easier to pick winners since the games are usually playing out as lopsided as they look on paper now. But I will say that doesn’t apply to Sunday’s first game in Germany where we somehow sent the Giants and Panthers. We’re not sending (or voting for) our best.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 10 Predictions

Silly me for thinking the Ravens-Bengals would at least try to play a different game script than Week 5. But it turned into more of the same with the Bengals choking away a game they should have won (again). Maybe neither team ultimately decides who wins the Super Bowl this year, but the thin margin in those games is something else. We’re two solid snaps away from the Bengals at 6-4 and the Ravens at 5-5 right now.

Panthers-Giants: Not a chance I won’t be sawing logs during this one. But I think Carolina can build off its win and use Chuba Hubbard against that poor run defense. Giants having to win by 6.5 against anyone with Daniel Jones feels like a lot.

Patriots-Bears: Not sure how to react to Bears playing so poorly on offense since the bye. Just banking on hope that Maye makes some mistakes and Caleb channels his 2022 Justin Fields against the New England defense with a big game.

Bills-Colts: I’m very tempted to take both the Bills and Chiefs to struggle this Sunday with their big showdown a week away. Shades of 1990 Giants-49ers when they were supposed to meet undefeated and both lost the week before. I think Joe Flacco will definitely score more this week to keep the job, but I’m still going to trust the Bills on the road. But I won’t be surprised if they win by 3 and don’t cover.

Vikings-Jaguars: Can Sam Darnold get a call for a blow to the head this week? I just think the Vikings are better on both sides of the ball and should win by a touchdown.

Broncos-Chiefs: Odds are suggesting a 24-17 game and that passes the sniff test for me. Division games are weird. Sean Payton got a couple of cracks at the Chiefs last year. At least Mahomes shouldn’t have the flu this time, but I don’t think the Chiefs will score a ton against a team that knows them well and has mostly played good defense this year. All comes down to how Bo Nix handles the blitzes sure to come his way, but I think his mobility could be very useful here. I’ll go with the KC classic: they win and don’t cover.

Falcons-Saints: This is going against the grain but I’m calling for the upset. Everyone is shitting on the Saints, including the Pope having fun with hashtags on Twitter. But I think they get a first-game interim coach boost, they’re due for a 4QC win (none since 2023 started), and the Falcons needed 2 return touchdowns to beat them at home earlier this season. The losing streak stops here. If not, then I’m probably not picking them the rest of the season in any game.

49ers-Bucs: CMC is finally back, but even if he wasn’t, I think the 49ers coming off a bye and feeling healthier is an easy pick against the Bucs, who left the tank empty on Monday night in KC. I view this game quite similarly to Jags-Vikings this week. I know, the 6.5-point spread is the kiss of death this season, but I just feel good about the 49ers here.

Steelers-Commanders: I think it’s a 23-20 type of game that comes down to the last seconds and a FG. I’m going to go with Washington, because I believe the Steelers aren’t well prepared for this impressive rookie who can attack them at every level of the field. Unfamiliar opponents. Of course, it wouldn’t shock me if the Steelers won 23-17. Why that score? That’s the score they won by on the road in Arizona in 2019 against Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray, and that’s the score Washington won by in Pittsburgh in 2020 on a Monday, the game that was the beginning of the end for the Pittsburgh offense looking functional under Big Ben. But I’m still going to trust Jayden Daniels in this one as he’s actually 5-0 ATS as a favorite this year. It should be fun.

Titans-Chargers: Will Levis is back, and he’s facing the No. 1 scoring defense? Then I think the streak of games under 40 points for the Chargers can continue. Give me LA 23-13.

Jets-Cardinals: It’s not so much that I believe the Jets are going to start reeling off wins, but I just don’t know what to make of Arizona yet. Apparently I’m not alone as this is a small spread in a week with 8 games having a spread of 5.5 and higher.

Cowboys-Eagles: You might say the Eagles should dominate, but they nearly blew a 22-0 lead to Trevor Lawrence last week. Mike McCarthy usually does a respectable job with backup QBs like Cooper Rush, who made it a 20-17 game in the fourth quarter in 2022 when he was in Philly on SNF with the Eagles during their peak run to that Super Bowl year. He lost 26-17 in the end, and he threw 3 picks, but I think the Cowboys will actually make this respectable before losing again. Backdoor cover is always an option.

Lions-Texans: Preview link above but I just think the Texans are the inferior team here, and the Lions should keep rolling. But I am intrigued by the No. 1 defense in lowest completion % vs. No. 1 QB in highest completion % as Goff is over 83% in his last 5 games. But if it’s actually close, don’t discount some C.J. Stroud magic now that Nico Collins is back. Still, it’s a bummer Diggs tore his ACL as this one had high potential for a non-conference game on SNF. It still might deliver.

Dolphins-Rams: I always say fade the Dolphins on the road against good teams, but are the Rams still good? It’s hard to say, but I’m taking them with their weapons. Hopefully we can avoid a Puka ejection this week.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 9

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

When I tweeted that the NFL’s Week 9 Sunday action was the weakest this season, I was ignoring a few individual highlight plays I’ll link below in the recaps. But a great play does not make for a great game. I think in the end, it was the weakest for these reasons:

  • As I expected between Jordan Love’s groin and the rain, Lions-Packers did not live up to the Game of the Week hype it deserved under normal circumstances.
  • Favorites are 13-1 SU this week (10-4 ATS) with the 9.5-point favored Chiefs still to host Tampa Bay on Monday night.
  • Only the Saints (-7.5) lost to the Panthers, and is it ever really a big upset if Derek Carr is on the losing end? He also was getting roasted by Michael Thomas on Twitter during the game, so he was losing either way today.
  • Not only was Saints-Panthers the only upset, it was the only game Sunday with a fourth-quarter lead change, so that game stood out from the pack and it wasn’t anything special.
  • Sure, 7-of-14 games had a comeback opportunity and there were a pair of overtime games, but neither actually had a lead change, and the teams who came back late to tie it with a great touchdown drive still ended up losing in overtime.
  • The only other fourth-quarter comeback in Week 9 was the Jets on Thursday night against Houston, a game script that the Vikings largely followed in their 21-13 (same score) win over the Colts on Sunday night.

Not a very original week even if there were some cool plays.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Dolphins at Bills: Unexpected Game of the Week

I am so used to Miami bombing in these road games against contenders that I didn’t think much of this 5.5-point spread in Buffalo. But the Dolphins did play them tough there in both games in the 2022 season, and they had Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback. He actually had one of the best games of his career in a loss as he completed 25-of-28 passes for 231 yards.

But the long drives by both teams magnified every mistake. So when Miami only gets 7 real possessions in the game, Raheem Mostert giving one away with a fumble at midfield is a bigger deal.

The Bills also felt that sting when Keon Coleman turned a catch into an interception by Jalen Ramsey in the second quarter. Maybe the turnover luck is starting to go south for Buffalo, but it still prevailed in this one after getting some key penalties on third down in the fourth quarter. The last one was just an incredibly stupid gift by Jordan Poyer, who hit a defenseless receiver on a pass that was going to be incomplete. That’s a season-ending type of stupid play given the AFC East records.

But when the Bills were stalled at the Miami 43, I was a little surprised to see Tyler Bass come out for a 61-yard field goal. He’s been struggling this season, he missed an extra point in this game, but they trusted him for the win. He absolutely drilled the kick too to give the Bills a 30-27 lead, which stood up after Jaylen Waddle had one of the worst lateral attempts you’ll ever see, which also cost Tua his passing over prop.

https://twitter.com/PropGeekZeke/status/1853189433006125547

Lions at Packers: Old School Football Wins

Again, I wasn’t expecting much from this game because of the wet field and Jordan Love’s groin injury. But I don’t want to act like the Lions beat up on an immobile starter who should have sat out this week. Love didn’t take any sacks in this game, he threw for 273 yards, but it was this killer pick-six before halftime that changed everything and made a 10-3 game a 17-3 game:

https://twitter.com/wingoz/status/1853206283093934350

I’ve watched that several times and I’m still not sure what the plan was for 2nd-and-1. Were they trying to set up a slow-developing screen for the RB? Should he just hit the tight end leaking out into the flat for the first down with under 40 seconds left? Every other receiver went flying down the field and out of reach, but this just looked bad and Love never should have thrown that one.

Then the Lions came out of the break with their last touchdown drive, and just like that they doubled scored on them to make it 24-3. Goodnight. Did Tom Brady sign a contract clause that every FOX game he calls has to be a boring rout?

The best Green Bay could do was make it 24-14 with 3:49 left. But Goff and the offense was able to run out the clock for another win, their third season in a row winning at Lambeau. Hopefully the Packers can return the favor in the rematch, but the Lions looked better prepared to handle the elements. They didn’t turn it over once against the No. 1 defense for takeaways. Meanwhile, Love had 3 fumbles (none lost) to go along with that pick-six as the slick ball was problematic for the Packers.

Broncos at Ravens: Denver’s Not Ready for This

Sunday was a litmus test for the Broncos, and it sure did not go well in a 41-10 rout. It’s one thing to beat teams like the Panthers, Raiders, and Saints, but the Broncos needed to show something here, and it ended up being a miserable day on both sides of the ball. They gave up a perfect passer rating to Lamar Jackson, who only had to throw 19 passes since his receivers were so open and ready for big plays, and Derrick Henry carved them up for another multi-touchdown day and 133 total yards.

But I wouldn’t say rookie Bo Nix was a disaster against this defense. He moved the ball, he even caught his first touchdown on a trick play, but the Broncos were 1-for-5 on fourth down, and that hurt. The first failure came early when Javonte Williams for some reason didn’t stretch the ball out on a fourth-down run, so he was ruled short on a challenge. That set up the Ravens on a short field and the rout was on.

Denver had 6 drives inside Baltimore territory (4 in the red zone) and only came away with 10 points. That’s just not good enough. Some defenses have done a decent job of slowing down the Ravens this year, but the Broncos were one of the worst against them. Guess it’s just not the same as playing Bryce Young, Spencer Rattler, the 2-headed monster in Vegas, or getting Aaron Rodgers in the rain.

The Broncos (5-4) may exceed expectations this year, but this team is still far from ready to seriously compete in the AFC playoffs. That’s what Sunday showed.

Chargers at Browns: They Really Did Give Justin Herbert a Defense

What does it take to get a game with the Chargers to 40 points this season? Even the 27-10 final in this one is misleading as the Browns scored a touchdown in garbage time. But if you thought Jameis Winston was going to get into a shootout with Justin Herbert like I did, we were dead wrong. Winston threw three picks as the Chargers repeatedly turned him away.

Meanwhile, what a game for Herbert. He threw for 250 yards and took 6 sacks in the first half alone, hitting on several big plays to his unheralded receivers. He barely had to do anything in the second half, but that’s the nice thing about having a defense and a running game you can rely on to close games.

The Chargers (5-3) are showing they can throw the ball when they have to, and the defense still hasn’t let anyone score more than 20 points this season. It’s an intriguing team for January.

Rams at Seahawks: NFC West Is a Mess

This game had me slipping in and out of a nap as I’d he awakened by the next killer Geno Smith interception, including a 103-yard return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter that gave the Rams a 20-13 lead.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1853226818276626684

Are you kidding me, Geno? He also took 7 sacks. But the Rams could not put this one away in a game where they had 13 possessions. I’d be curious about Sean McVay’s success rate in the 4-minute offense because it sure feels like he always plays it so conservatively and puts the game on his defense. Well, it almost cost them here as the Rams gave up the game-tying touchdown with 51 seconds left as Smith temporarily redeemed himself.

I thought the Seahawks might go for 2, but I guess they thought there was too much time left. So, they played overtime. I don’t disagree with the decision by the Seahawks to go for a 4th-and-1 at the Rams 16 in overtime with 7:19 left. They didn’t get it, but we saw the problem in that spot when the defense gave up another touchdown to Demarcus Robinson, so they would have lost the game anyway if they were up 23-20.

But that 103-yard pick-six was a killer and let’s not forget the Seahawks blew a 13-3 lead before that too. Just a missed opportunity to get to 5-4 in this mess of a division that is already filled with weird comeback wins like this game.

Colts at Vikings: What’s the Plan, Indy?

The Colts have not been a serious organization for several years now. I don’t get how you make a big stink about benching Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco, then come out and look this uninterested in getting Flacco comfortable in the game. He had 10 pass attempts at halftime and 3-of-10 were to running back Jonathan Taylor, who never established the run with 48 yards on 13 carries for the night.

Flacco is a rhythm passer. He needs to get going early and he needs volume. They didn’t do that, so it’s no wonder they only scored two field goals. Their only touchdown was a bogus one on defense on a play that should have been flagged for hitting Sam Darnold in the face, but apparently he doesn’t get those whistles this year (see missed facemask vs. Rams last week).

Richardson could have scored 6 points and taken the loss too. But while I know the Colts use a lot of play-action with both quarterbacks, is that really a good idea for the older, slower Flacco to turn his back to this deceptive Minnesota defense he’s trying to figure out? I would have spread them out early with Flacco in the gun and take my chances with his receivers. But they just never got around to that until they had to, and the pass rush teed off on him.

On the other side, I think you see why the ceiling for this team with Darnold is probably a close divisional round loss. That’s still a hell of a lot better than the expectations for the 2024 Vikings, but he had 3 turnovers and 4 sacks in this game even if the fumble return was bullshit. That’s too many negative plays, and that’s going to cost you in January against a functional opponent (i.e. not the Colts).

Flacco infamously made it through his 2012 Super Bowl run without those big mistakes (thanks for that, Rahim Moore). I’m not sure Darnold can do it, but maybe getting Jordan Addison a nice touchdown and getting tight end T.J. Hockenson back in the mix will elevate this offense going forward.

Jaguars at Eagles: I Was Hoping This Would Be the Only Pennsylvania Choke This Week…

I’m not going to get on board with “fire Nick Sirianni” yet as I see that going around social media today. But I get it, in a way. The Eagles were up 22-0 and almost blew this game with a weird fumble touchdown on a play involving Saquon Barkley where he might have been down by contact but not really. The only blemish to this incredible day for Barkley with this unforgettable highlight:

https://x.com/CoachDanCasey/status/1853191583174107478

Then Jake Elliott couldn’t hit a 57-yard field goal late for the cover and insurance score, so Trevor Lawrence really had a chance in this one even though he led the offense to 1 first down and 16 net passing yards at halftime.

Fortunately, the defense put an end to this mess with an interception in the end zone as the Jags dropped another close game, 28-23. But this one really should not have been this close, and it’ll be interesting to see what happens going forward when the Eagles start playing those division teams like Dallas and Washington.

But hey, a win is a win, which is what I’ll say this week when Orange Caligula goes down too in Pennsylvania and many other places.

Raiders at Bengals: Clueless Team Cleans House

Leave it up to the Raiders to give up 5 touchdown passes (none were to Ja’Marr Chase) and make firing the offensive coaching staff, including coordinator Luke Getsy, the headline after a 41-24 loss.

Any blame for Antonio Pierce’s clueless defense that couldn’t contain Mike Gesicki? But the offense wasn’t good either as the 24 points were a mirage that included a pick-six and a garbage-time score to Brock Bowers.

But how does your offense ever build something when Pierce tries to bench Gardner Minshew every week? They’re onto Desmond Ridder now. Good luck with that. This is what happens when you start a season with the most embarrassing quarterback room in the league.

Bears at Cardinals: The Bears Are Who We Thought They Were

Tale as old as time: The Chicago Bears are struggling in the passing game with rookie Caleb Williams, who took 6 sacks and couldn’t move the chains on third downs.

But a new twist is allowing a 50-plus yards touchdown at the end of a half. The Hail Mary was one thing last week, but this time to end the first half, the Bears somehow gave up a 53-yard run right down the middle of the field to Arizona’s backup runner. How does that happen with 4 seconds left in the half? Does this team not have safeties to drop back as the last line of defense?

It could have been a 14-9 game at halftime with Chicago regrouping, but that just blew it open at 21-9, and the Bears never found the end zone. Oh, they gave up a safety in their own end with a penalty in the end zone later.

But I’m not sure what to make of Arizona yet. The Cardinals are 5-4, the only winning record in the NFC West. But it’s a volatile team in a volatile division this year.

Cowboys at Falcons: Deceivingly Close

I think “Deceivingly Close” would be a good title for a book about the 1996-2024 Dallas Cowboys and their attempt to get back to an NFC Championship Game. It sure doesn’t look like it’s happening this season as the playoffs are in doubt at 3-5.

Dak Prescott left the 27-21 loss with a hamstring injury that could linger, but the game didn’t even feel that close. The Falcons lost Drake London early in the game but not before he caught a touchdown. The Falcons held CeeDee Lamb to 47 yards on 8 catches.

Dallas only scored its last touchdown with 1:28 left to make it a one-score game, but it was over after the Cowboys didn’t recover the onside kick, something Atlanta needed to do against this team in that 2020 fiasco.

But the Falcons continue to look like the best team in the NFC South while the Cowboys are third best in the NFC East at best these days.

Commanders at Giants: Touchdowns at MetLife (But Not Enough)

If your quarterback hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass at home in 672 days, he probably shouldn’t have been your quarterback that long. That’s the case of Daniel Jones, who finally ended his streak on Sunday, but it still wasn’t enough in a 27-22 loss to the Commanders, who are now 7-2 behind the runaway leader for Offensive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels.

It was another very efficient day for Daniels. While they actually made him punt this time, the Giants couldn’t stop Daniels on some key third downs, and that’s how the Commanders stayed a step ahead for the win even though the Giants were finally scoring for a change.

Saints at Panthers: Carr’s Masterpiece Afternoon

What a legacy-defining afternoon for Derek Carr:

  • Threw a couple of hospital balls that knocked Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson out of the game.
  • Got ripped to shreds by former teammate Michael Thomas on Twitter after the Olave play.
  • Wasted a 155-rushing yards day by Alvin Kamara as the offense struggled in the red zone and on third down (5-of-15).
  • Took a fourth-quarter lead, but flubbed the crucial 2-point conversion, which is why the game wasn’t tied late.
  • Only needing a field goal with 2:18 left, Carr couldn’t get past his own 46, turning it over on downs to one of the worst teams in the NFL.
  • The Saints are the first team to ever start 2-0 with 40-point games and go on a 7-game losing streak.
  • Carr is the first quarterback in NFL history to lose a start to 31 different teams.
  • The Saints are the only team without a fourth-quarter comeback win since the 2023 season started (0-4 in those one-score opportunities this year).
  • Chris Olave’s brother backed Thomas’ sentiment that Carr needs his ass whooped, and he said it’s not worth his brother’s health playing in New Orleans.

I wouldn’t be surprised if I woke up to see that Carr got coach Dennis Allen fired for a second time in his NFL career. What a mess in New Orleans.

Patriots at Titans: Drake Maye Has Some Josh Allen in Him

Thanks to Josh Allen, if a quarterback sucks in his first two seasons, we’re going to hear how he could be the next Allen and have a breakout season in Year 3. I’m generally going to be opposed to this, because Allen is an outlier, and his athletic profile makes him an even bigger outlier. People are also going to mischaracterize where he was in Year 2 as we’ve already seen with the 2024 Anthony Richardson comparisons.

But a player I might be willing to give a Year 3 grace period to is Drake Maye, especially when you consider how bare Bill Belichick the GM left the cupboards in New England. If you give this guy a competent team and a good coach, you never know what you might get as he gives off some Allen vibes with his athleticism.

In Tennessee, he played in his first full start that was close at the end, and while he didn’t pass the ball effectively, he ran 8 times for 95 yards, showing that dual-threat ability. But it was with the game on the line on the final play of regulation that Maye pulled off this stunner and clinic on how to extend the play and make it work for a clutch touchdown:

https://twitter.com/Patriots/status/1853180878353990084

Not bad for holding the ball for about 12 seconds. Unfortunately, the Titans held the ball a long time in overtime, kicked a field goal, and when Maye tried to answer that, he forced a deep ball on first down that he probably didn’t need to and that was easily picked off to end the game at 20-17.

So, he’ll never be the LOAT, he may never reach Josh Allen’s highs, but I see some potential here at least.

Next week: The regular season is already halfway over. Week 10 looks better and starts with an important game in Bengals-Ravens. Giants-Panthers in Germany is maybe the least serious pushing of the NFL product in decades. Broncos in Kansas City loses some luster after that performance Sunday, but never discount a division game’s chances for fvckery. Steelers-Commanders is absolutely a better game this year than Eagles-Cowboys will be. SNF is Lions-Texans, a game that could have been good with Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, but I don’t think Houston stands much of a chance without those guys. Dolphins-Rams on MNF will hopefully come with some touchdowns.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 8

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

In the last couple of weeks, the NFL’s 2024 season was running low on upsets and lead changes. But like clockwork, a so-so Week 8 on paper delivered one of the best Sundays of the season. I even alluded to something like that happening this weekend in the Week 8 predictions:

“But yeah, I have low expectations for this week, which means it will probably be an epic Sunday of close games after so few last week.”

It was. We had 10 games with a comeback opportunity (after 12 in Weeks 6-7 combined), four games with a lead change in the fourth quarter, and we saw one of the greatest Hail Mary finishes in professional football history (and that came in the week’s lowest-scoring game).

It also reportedly was the day with the most catches by tight ends in NFL history, so that’s a good way to celebrate National Tight Ends Day. If only we had a few more good ones in the league right now.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bears at Commanders: Game of the Week

I basically had the recap to this one written in my mind twice before having to discard it for the insane actual ending that took place.

First, when it was 12-7 Washington, I was going to say that no matter who you put at quarterback, these teams are destined to play ugly, low-scoring games like this. A 12-7 final was the score between these teams in 2022 on a Thursday night game.

But the Commanders’ inability to finish any drive for a touchdown was hurting them put this one away even if Matt Eberflus’ team is the worst in close games. Jayden Daniels may have missed some throws he’d hit if the rib injury that nearly kept him out wasn’t there, and the Bears were making Bears things happen to lift their struggling quarterback like a 56-yard touchdown run by D’Andre Swift and blocking a 51-yard field goal in the fourth quarter. Or was the kick short? I thought it said block when it happened.

Either way, this is some Rex Grossman 101 on how to get carried to a win as Caleb Williams was giving them nothing in this rookie quarterback showdown.

Then with 6:21 left, the funniest NFL play in years happened. Maybe the funniest since The Butt Fumble in 2012. The Bears had the ball at the 1-yard line and could have taken the lead. But instead of doing a QB sneak or going to a running back, they brought in offensive lineman Doug Kramer and decided to go a little Refrigerator Perry by handing off to him for the dive run. What ensued had me laughing harder than any comedy I’ve seen in years:

It’s just that image of a big man, who clearly shouldn’t be handling the football here, losing it immediately, and the ball flying so far ahead of him as if the universe said “fuck no, this isn’t happening for you” that had me laughing my ass off for a good 40 seconds.

That was just too good. But then the Bears got the ball back, and Williams started completing passes, then he got the bail-out flag for DPI on 4th-and-3 to set them up at the goal line. That’s when my mind went to the idea that he’s played like shit all game and he’s probably still going to get a win against this defense. So, he’s the Tom Brady in this new rivalry to Daniels’ Peyton Manning. The inferior quarterback with the better defense is going to get the win again. Sure enough, they got the touchdown run and 2-point conversion pass to take a 15-12 lead with 25 seconds left.

Now, some people are going to chalk this up to a lucky Hail Mary, and there’s some truth to that. But give Daniels credit for the way this offense managed the drive after a bad kickoff left them with 76 yards and 19 seconds. They had one timeout left, which was key. After short-hopping the first throw, Daniels hit a completion to Zach Ertz for 11 yards, used the timeout, then took another sideline completion for 13 yards instead of forcing something that wasn’t going to be there that far away. That bought him a chance from the 48, needing a 52-yard touchdown pass.

But when he scrambled back and was around the 30, I was thinking he’s never going to recover to get the ball deep enough for the end zone. But after the play seemingly went on forever, Daniels finally launched and the crowd was there with a Bear tipping it right to Noah Brown, alone in the end zone for one of the most shocking touchdown finishes in NFL history.

https://x.com/NFL/status/1850683356742312348

Adding to the play’s mystique right away was the footage of Chicago DB Tyrique Stevenson caught jawing with fans in the crowd while the play was already underway. He joined the crowd late and ended up being the player who hit the ball that went to Brown for the win.

Just one of those unbelievable finishes to get the Commanders to 6-2. That might be a wrap on Offensive Rookie of the Year with Daniels throwing for 326 yards and rushing for 52 more. Williams only passed for 131 yards on 10-of-24 passing with 41 yards on the ground.

I don’t think a Hail Mary should be the centerpiece to an MVP campaign, but it is in line with the idea that Daniels understands drive engineering beyond his years, and you literally have to defend the whole field from him as a triple threat to throw it short, deep (he hit a 61-yard pass to McLaurin earlier in game), and as a runner.

Just the kind of ultimate weapon at quarterback, and we know his numbers in college were insane in 2023 (but not in previous years), and he’s doing these things in the NFL now. It’s been incredible to watch, and he really pulled a rabbit out of the hat to steal this one.

So, the funniest play in over a decade if you ask me, and a Hail Mary that is in the running for the best in NFL history. It wasn’t much of a game before those moments, but they will make it an unforgettable first matchup between Daniels and Williams.

Cowboys at 49ers: Almost Kyle Shanahan’s Masterpiece

Kyle Shanahan only gets partial (albeit a lot of) blame for 28-3 since he was Atlanta’s offensive coordinator and not the head coach. I think his masterpiece choke is still ahead of him, and Sunday night certainly would have been a contender if the 49ers really blew a 27-10 lead in the fourth quarter to a lifeless Dallas team by allowing two of the most wide-open touchdowns to CeeDee Lamb you’ll ever see.

This was a weird game as the Dallas defense was playing well in the first half to build a 10-6 lead, imploded in the third quarter, then somehow made this a game in the last 10:00 despite it looking dead.

You could see Shanahan can’t help himself as he kept calling passes for Brock Purdy when it got to 30-24, and on a 2nd-down sack, it was a miracle Purdy didn’t fumble on a blindside hit. That might have been the play of the game for San Francisco. But the 49ers still went three-and-out, and Dak Prescott had a full 3:05 to go get the winning touchdown like he did in Pittsburgh this season.

Except this time it was a disaster as the Cowboys didn’t gain a single yard and went four-and-out. I don’t know what the plan was on that drive as the only good play was Prescott throwing deep on third down to Turpin, and I’m not even sure that was smart given the down and distance, and it didn’t look like Turpin was going to get his feet in bounds with possession even if he caught it cleanly.

Then the 4th-down throw was just another prayer to a receiver who had no targets all night before that. Whatever, Dallas. It was fun while it lasted, but there’s a reason a massive comeback just never seems to happen for teams coached by Mike McCarthy. They’ll tease and tease you, but then look at that finish. Terrible, and that’s why you’re 3-4 and fading fast.

But the 49ers make you nervous as it doesn’t feel like any lead is safe with this team. Remember, they looked like they were going to blow a 20-point lead against the Seahawks a few weeks ago.

But as long as they keep getting double-digit leads in games, they’re probably going to win enough games to stay relevant through the playoffs. As for Dallas, I’m hoping we get some flexed games late in the season as this team is just tough to watch right now.

Ravens at Browns: Jameis Eats a W

Division games are weird, but what a relief for Cleveland to have a real quarterback who can take chances, make big plays, and not take a million sacks like Deshaun Watson did. Sure, Jameis Winston can always turn it over, and he tried his hardest with one of the worst dropped interceptions you’ll ever see from Kyle Hamilton with the game on the line to rescue Winston’s ass in this one.

But the Ravens did a pretty fine job of beating themselves with drops on both sides of the ball, and even Justin Tucker missed a 50-yard field goal in a clutch situation early in the fourth quarter as he hasn’t been himself this year on long kicks.

That’s not to say the Browns didn’t play well and really challenged the Ravens for 60 minutes. They would have held this high-powered offense to 3 points at halftime had Jameis not lost a fumble and set up a short field for the Ravens.

But the teams went back and forth throughout the half, and the Browns were in ideal situations, like a 24-23 deficit with 2:31 left to answer. I actually thought they screwed up with 1:08 left after getting a first down. In that spot, you wouldn’t mind just running a few times and kicking the field goal on the final snap.

But the Browns had a false start, the dropped pick by Hamilton, and just like that, you’re staring at a 56-yard field goal without a great kicker on the roster.

That’s when Jameis may have succeeded by fooling the Ravens by going deep in a situation you didn’t think he would, and he found Cedric Tillman wide open for a 38-yard touchdown with 59 seconds left. But the Browns missed the 2-point conversion, so it was only a 29-24 lead.

Lamar Jackson had a timeout, so 70 yards was doable for this offense. But once he got to the 24, I’m not sure spiking was the greatest decision, and they’d end up floundering on their last three cracks at the big play as no one could get open in the end zone. The Browns held up and got the win as an 8.5-point underdog.

I don’t think the formula is overly complex for beating the Ravens this year. The defense simply isn’t as good this season, the offensive line can give up some sacks at times, and you just have to contain those explosive runs by Henry and Jackson. The Browns are used to playing this team, even beat them last year with Predator, so it’s not that surprising that the Ravens have lost 3 games to entities they lost to last year too (Chiefs, Gardner Minshew, and Cleveland). They still have two games against Pittsburgh too, and if the Steelers can win Monday night to improve to 6-2, this loss becomes extra important.

But it is looking more and more likely that the Ravens won’t be the No. 1 seed again this season, or that they will have to go to Kansas City for any playoff rematch. As for the Browns, they waited too long to start Jameis, but at least they’re here now.

Jets at Patriots: Just End the Season

I asked in my Week 8 picks if this team was really pathetic enough to lose to the Patriots, Well, I got my answer. What does it take for this team to win a game anymore? They gave Aaron Rodgers a running game here, the receivers made some plays, the run defense wasn’t terrible, and Drake Maye left the game injured and was replaced by one of the worst comeback quarterbacks in Jacoby Brissett. Still, the Jets blew it.

I know the special teams are lousy, and I said that the other day on Twitter before they added to their legacy in this one by allowing a 62-yard punt return in the third quarter to set up the Pats on a short field for a touchdown. Then Greg Zuerlein missed a 44-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter that would have put the Jets up 19-14. Zuerlein could probably be cut at this moment and it wouldn’t hurt the team and might even help them if his confidence is really this shot.

But not converting on a 2-point conversion with 2:57 left certainly hurt the Jets as it always does when you leave yourself open to trailing on a touchdown. The defense couldn’t stop Brissett on multiple third-and-longs, then Rhamondre Stevenson pushed ahead for the touchdown on 4th-and-1 with 22 seconds left. Unlike the Jets, the Patriots converted their 2-point try to take a 25-22 lead.

Rodgers was in no man’s land, and even if by some miracle he got into field goal range, I’d bet on Zuerlein to miss it. But a completion to Davante Adams for 16 yards only saw the clock run out and drop the Jets to 2-6, the No. 15 team in the conference right now.

It’s shocking, but it’s also largely explainable. Poor situation play, a quarterback who isn’t what he used to be, a hack of a coordinator on offense to start the season, and some truly abysmal special teams play.

But still, 2-6? That’s brutal. Just end the season.

As I said the other day, Rodgers might just head into a dark retreat before the election, never to be heard from again (except for Tuesdays with Pat McAfee).

Chiefs at Raiders: All the Streaks Intact for KC

Go figure, the Chiefs (-9.5) were the only favorite not to cover the spread in the last six games on Sunday. But they still controlled this game in Vegas, their 13th win in a row, and they are back to consistently scoring 26-to-28 points on 8-to-10 drives as they have the last three weeks. That should scare you as this 7-0 team keeps showing improvements.

Just imagine how good things could be if the Chiefs eliminated the obligatory interception, which has taken over from the obligatory fumble this season. Yes, Patrick Mahomes was intercepted again in this game, and for the fourth time in a row, it wasn’t a bad play by him. His hand was hit as he threw, and you could see it coming as the Chiefs were penalized deep in their own end for holding on consecutive plays before that happened.

The Chiefs definitely have a left tackle problem (Wanya Morris), but one thing they still have is defense. After the interception set up the Raiders at the KC 3 in a 17-13 game, the defense delivered a goal-line stand, sacking Gardner Minshew on 4th-and-goal. Later on, CBS’ Trent Green had just finished saying that Minshew protected the ball before the Chiefs forced a fumble from him in a one-score game.

The Chiefs at least have a right tackle in Jawaan Taylor. Despite his penalty issues, the reason you didn’t hear much about Mason Crosby in this game is because Taylor took care of business. The offense looked very solid outside of that one penalty-to-pick sequence, and DeAndre Hopkins made a couple of nice catches in his team debut after getting the trade papers on Wednesday. Travis Kelce also finally caught a touchdown in 2024. The Chiefs were 12-of-15 on third down before Mahomes took 3 knees to wrap up the win after the team recovered an onside kick with 2:00 left.

We’ll see how much longer this team can keep up its unique winning streak in addition to the way it hasn’t allowed more than 27 points in any game since Super Bowl 57 (Eagles), nor has it scored more than 28 points since its last trip to Vegas in Week 12 last season.

But as long as the wins keep coming…

Bills at Seahawks: Can’t Stop the Rain (or Buffalo)

If I had known Thursday night that DK Metcalf was going to be out and it would rain badly during the game, I never would have suggested to bet Seahawks over 19.5 points to extend their streak of scoring at least 20 points in every game this season.

Sure, Josh Allen threw his first pick of the year and was fortunate to get away with a fumble in the slick conditions, but Seattle had no juice without Metcalf to move the ball consistently. The running game was nonexistent (Geno led team with 16 rushing yards), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is not WR1 material yet.

That all ended in a mess in this 31-10 loss that never felt competitive. Actually, I take that back. The Seahawks had a shot when it was 7-3 Buffalo and they had 4th-and-goal at the 1. But Smith was stepped on at the line and just fell down, turning the ball over on downs.

The Bills hit them with a double score from there to make it 17-3, and that was enough to win this game if we’re being honest. A tough loss for the Seahawks, but also another game where the loss of a WR1 had a big impact. I don’t think it would have helped the defense defend Keon Coleman or Khalil Shakir, but at least the Seahawks would have scored some more points.

Eagles at Bengals: The Close Game That Wasn’t

I thought for sure this would be a close game in the fourth quarter so much that I had a +3000 SGP contingent on the Eagles winning by 1-6. All the other props hit as the skill players I expected to show up did with A.J. Brown having another big yardage game, Jalen Hurts actually scored three times on the ground, and Saquon Barkley did his thing again.

But the way this game played out was shocking as it went from a strong Cincinnati start with a red-hot Joe Burrow to an even game to a Philly blowout in what felt like a matter of minutes.

Where everything went south for Cincinnati was late in the third quarter. Hurts threw a great 45-yard touchdown to DeVonta Smith to take a 24-17 lead, and that seemed to set some panic in the Bengals, who went for a 4th-and-1 at their own 39. Don’t love the call, because this team isn’t like the Eagles where we know what’s coming on 4th-and-1 and we expect it’s going to work. Sure enough, the Bengals ended up throwing a pass outside the numbers to Ja’Marr Chase that was multiple yards short of the sticks, and it went down as a 2-yard loss. Terrible play.

The Eagles didn’t fully make them pay as they moved the ball and kicked a field goal, but it was still a 10-point game now in the fourth quarter. On the ensuing drive, Burrow threw a deep pass that was tipped from one defender and caught by C.J. Gardner-Johnson on the deflection, showing some great instincts. It was like watching Colin Kaepernick against the 2013 Legion of Boom, except it wasn’t in the end zone and this ball was coming down fast, so great reflexes by Gardner-Johnson to pull that one in.

Then the Eagles embarked on a brilliant drive that consumed half the quarter despite only facing third down once, and they finished it with another Hurts touchdown. It was 34-17 with 4:39 left – game over.

Now the Bengals (3-5) are talking about winning 7-of-9 to finish 10-7 for the playoffs. Yeah, it’s possible because of the AFC. But if those teams like the Steelers (5-2), Chargers (4-3), and Broncos (5-3) keep winning games, teams the Bengals still have four games against, it’s a moot point. Besides, the Bengals are 0-4 at home. Who is fearing this team right now?

But if this version of the Eagles can show up more, then that team has a shot in the NFC. I’m very curious to see how their matchups with Washington go. The first one is a Thursday night game in Week 11.

Titans at Lions: The Worst Special Teams Game Ever?

Earlier this week on Twitter, I said that I don’t view the Lions as an elite team after the Aidan Hutchinson injury. What I meant was I don’t see them finishing the season elite on both sides of the ball in the way that teams like the Ravens, 49ers, Bills, and Cowboys did last year. The Chiefs also played much better offense in the postseason and had one of the best defenses. You don’t win Super Bowls by winning a bunch of shootouts, and I don’t think Detroit was really blowing anyone out except for Dallas this season to this point.

Well, that made Sunday’s game awkward, because Mason Rudolph was shredding them early with two quick touchdown drives, Calvin Ridley had over 100 yards in the first quarter, and my proclamation of the post-Hutchinson defense looked right on.

But then the Lions just kept scoring on short fields that the Titans we regiving them with huge mistakes on special teams and blunders on offense. It was unreal. The Lions had drives that started at the Tennessee 23, 25, 12, 22, and 26 in this game, scoring 5 touchdowns on those drives. They also had a punt return touchdown among numerous other long returns. Definitely one of the worst special teams games you’ll see from a team.

At one point, Jared Goff had 28 passing yards and the Lions had 42 points. What the fuck? That’s not even net passing yards as Goff took 4 sacks and got away with 2 fumbles that weren’t recovered by the defense. That’s why his QBR was only 15.3, the second lowest this week.

The Lions finished with 61 net passing yards and 52 points, a combo that is hard to fathom in the NFL, especially when only one touchdown return boosted those numbers. But it was all the short fields and a 70-yard run by Jahmyr Gibbs that did the damage.

The Titans also had some pathetic play calling that stunted their scoring output despite the way they moved the ball well behind Mason Rudolph. But what a historic blowout. You have to go back to the 1950 Giants to find the only other time in the modern stats era (since 1933) where a team scored 50 points without surpassing 65 net passing yards. The stats in that game don’t even look real and may not even be 100% accurate. Who trails 20-0 before ripping off 55 points with 423 rushing yards and 51 passing yards?

But the Lions put on a show Sunday. Now they might get a break in their trip to Green Bay next week if Jordan Love can’t play.

Packers at Jaguars: Malik Willis’ Progress Is Season Saving for Green Bay

No one will know how Malik Willis would have performed in Tennessee this year if they kept him on as the backup instead of letting him go with Mason Rudolph in town. But Willis’ progress in Green Bay has been key to overcoming these Jordan Love injuries as the starter was knocked out with a groin injury in this one and his status is up in the air.

The Jaguars have played better in recent weeks, and they gave the Packers all they could handle in this one. Even after trailing by 10 points in the last 10:00, the Jaguars were able to tie the game at 27 with 1:48 left.

Just two plays into the ensuing drive, Willis hit a deep ball to Jayden Reed for 51 yards after the defender fell down on the play-action fake. That was basically all the Packers needed as they just ran the clock down before Brandon McManus walked them off for the second week in a row with a 24-yard field goal in a 30-27 win.

We know the Packers need Love to win a Super Bowl, but they are still thriving with Willis in this offense too. But they need to hear some good news on Love with the first Detroit game coming up next Sunday.

Colts at Texans: Can Indy Send Some Receivers to Houston If Anthony Richardson Is Going to Waste Them?

Watching Anthony Richardson is like a shock to the system when you think of the Colts with one of the most consistently accurate quarterbacks ever (Peyton Manning), and even Andrew Luck would get on a hot streak where he couldn’t miss.

But Richardson is something entirely different, and I don’t think it’s the type of quarterback you can ever expect to sustain offense with. He’s better at throwing 50-yard bombs than he is at anything under 10 yards. How can that work? In this game, he had a 69-yard touchdown pass, but he was 2-of-15 for 81 yards at halftime and gifted the Texans with a short field for a touchdown thanks to an awful pick.

I’m not sure how Shane Steichen stuck with him at quarterback instead of going to Joe Flacco, who you know can hit the easy throws in what was a winnable game for first place in the division.

I also don’t think Steichen was justified in not making the change. The Colts scored 10 points on their final 5 drives, but when it came time to set up a game-tying field goal, Richardson was MIA. He also dipped out of the game at one point for saying he was out of breath, something you just never hear from a quarterback.

As for the Texans, this was basically a repeat of the Buffalo win (also 23-20), except C.J. Stroud wasn’t the one turning it over in the fourth quarter to give the opponent a chance this time. The stat sheet will show fumble with the Colts in the red zone with 3:00 left, but that was Joe Mixon failing to handle a pitch on a run. They credit that to the quarterback since he was technically the last person with possession.

The Texans are fortunate the Colts were down and that didn’t go for a touchdown return to make it 27-23, because they didn’t have a ton of offense with Stefon Diggs leaving the game with no-contact injury. No word yet on that, but it didn’t look good for an offense that is already missing Nico Collins.

But at least the Houston defense finished the job against Richardson, who was 10-of-32 passing for 175 yards and 5 sacks. Remember, this defense held Josh Allen to 9-of-30 passing in a game a few weeks ago.  This makes Houston the only defense since the merger to hold 2 quarterbacks to no more than 10 completions on 30-plus attempts.

The Texans swept the Colts for just the second time ever. That was that 2016 season where the Colts blew the division to Brock Osweiler. Getting swept by Stroud is understandable, but it’s not looking good for Richardson to get on that level with consistent play.

Falcons at Buccaneers: Kirk Cousins’ Favorite Defense

These teams may have played the Game of the Year in Week 5, and this one started off strong too. Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards last time and was on pace for a huge number again with 224 yards at halftime in this one. But he was held to 52 yards after halftime as his legs became a bigger story. Kyle Pitts also nearly went full Leon Lett in this one but was bailed out by replay on a very close call when his second touchdown was nearly fumbled through the end zone because of an early celebration.

Baker Mayfield had to get things done without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but he started well by utilizing tight end Cade Otton and the running backs (Rachaad White and Bucky Irving). But it felt like Atlanta eventually got wise to the lack of trust at wide receiver for these Bucs, and Mayfield started getting into some trouble with turnovers as has been the case in recent weeks.

A misplayed fake punt by the Bucs helped put them in a 2-score hole for the fourth quarter. But a safety after the Falcons couldn’t handle a snap made it a 31-19 game with plenty of time. Cade Otton caught his second touchdown, then the Falcons looked like they had a chance to run out the final 6:52. Cousins had a huge 13-yard scramble, converted a quarterback sneak on 4th-and-1 before the 2-minute warning. But when Younghoe Koo had a chance to give that important 8-point cushion with 1:01 left, he was wide right on a 46-yard field goal.

Uh-oh, typical Atlanta finish coming next, right? But that might have been the case with big-time receivers like Evans and Godwin available. The Bucs drove as deep as the Atlanta 33, but after a false start, Mayfield’s last gasp on a Hail Mary did not connect in the end zone. We’d get the real thing in Washington later that day.

But with the success of a team like the Commanders, it looks like the NFC South is only getting one playoff team this year, and the Falcons are in great shape now with a 5-3 record and a sweep over Tampa Bay. That was always the best way to end their reign in the NFC South, and don’t forget that Atlanta still has some of its easiest games left late in the season while the banged-up Bucs are in Kansas City next week.

Cardinals at Dolphins: Tua’s Back, But So Is Good Kyler?

Tua Tagovailoa returned to action for the first time since Week 2, and the good news is he put 27 points on the board, and he even made a big slide to protect himself on a third-and-long scramble.

The bad news is the Miami defense did not show up. Kyler Murray passed for 307 yards without taking a single sack. For an offense that has routinely been stuck to 17 points or less for the last month, Murray was able to overcome a 27-18 deficit in the fourth quarter. He led one touchdown drive, the Dolphins punted from midfield, then the Cardinals used up the final 5:01 on a stellar drive to set up a 34-yard field goal to win 28-27 on the final snap.

The Cardinals (4-4) are technically leading the NFC West thanks to that comeback win against the 49ers. The talent is there for this to be a really good offense, so we’ll see if they can put together more games like this. But it’s a tough loss for Miami (2-5), which falls to No. 10 in the AFC.

Saints at Chargers: The Ladd McConkey Game

It was a breakout moment for rookie wideout Ladd McConkey, who finished with 111 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 26-8 win that again came relatively easy for the Chargers. Justin Herbert played efficiently and even ran for 49 yards. He also survived a cheap shot from the Saints at his legs. I thought Greggggg Williams was long gone there? But the spirit remains.

It’s still surreal to see the Chargers winning a 26-8 game. In fact, the 2024 Chargers are the first team since the 2002 Panthers to go seven games into a season with none of the games going over 39.5 points. That was John Fox’s rookie season as coach and that streak lasted the first 8 games of the season.

If the Chargers can survive Jameis next week with this streak, they have a great shot to have the longest streak to start a season since the 1992 Seahawks, who hold the post-1930 record at 15 games.

But the Chargers (4-3) are at least winning this way.

Panthers at Broncos: Run It Up

Is it possible the Panthers only scored a garbage time touchdown with 18 seconds left because they were pissed at the Broncos for perceiving they tried to run up the score with a fake kick and throwing deep on fourth down with a 28-7 lead near the two-minute warning?

Either way, that late score gave Bryce Young 14 points in his latest start, or one more point than he led Carolina to in his previous four starts combined. Still, that’s 27 points over 5 games, and he is just not looking the part of NFL starter in Carolina.

But we should probably give some much-needed attention to how terrible the Carolina defense has been too after trading Brian Burns this offseason. Not that he could alone turn things around, but they’re really poor on that side too against the run and the pass. Rookie Bo Nix was absolutely shredding them and finished with 284 yards on 28-of-37 passing.

The Broncos are 5-3, but let’s see where things stand after they play the Ravens, Chiefs, and Falcons these next three games.

Next week: Jets were a rough game for C.J. Stroud last year, but who can trust the Jets to beat anyone at this point? Chargers-Browns is suddenly more interesting with Jameis (as God intended, you know). Broncos can test that defense against the Ravens in Baltimore. Flexing Jags-Eagles out of SNF was a good move, but Vikings-Colts is basically the same caliber at this point. Unless they put Flacco in to carve up that defense. Detroit-Green Bay would be the GOTW, but what is Love’s status? Terrible timing for a groin injury. Kansas City has a great shot to go to 8-0 against Tampa Bay on Monday night.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 6

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

At the very least, I picked the appropriate week to call my NFL picks “Favoring the Favorites” on Saturday. Favorites just went 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in Week 6 with Monday night pending. I took the underdog Jets for that one, so we’ll see, but it was finally a great day for the favorites.

And what a great day for the NFC North. The Lions blew out the Cowboys on Jerry Jones’ birthday to get some revenge for last year, the Packers routed the Cardinals, the Bears routed the Jaguars, and the 5-0 Vikings had a bye week. But every NFC North team is 4-2 or better, and they are the top four teams in scoring differential pending Buffalo on MNF.

That’s one of the craziest stats I’ve ever seen. But there was not much late-game drama in Week 6. Only six games had a comeback opportunity, including the Seahawks on Thursday night, and the only fourth-quarter lead change all day was in Tennessee.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Commanders at Ravens: Respectable in Defeat

Figures, I got greedy and took Ravens -9.5 and their late 30-20 lead didn’t hold up in this 30-23 final that was right on the spread and total (Ravens -6.5, O/U 51). Vegas nailed that one.

But while the Ravens still won to make both teams 4-2, I think you have to be impressed by the young Commanders and rookie Jayden Daniels. He didn’t have Brian Robinson Jr. and they couldn’t run the ball as he led the team with 22 rushing yards. Their defense has really struggled this year, and this game was no exception with Lamar Jackson throwing for 323 yards on 20-of-26 passing, and Derrick Henry rushed for 132 yards and 2 more touchdowns. The only Baltimore turnover was an interception on the first drive on a pass that went off Mark Andrews’ hands.

But the Commanders hung around the whole game. They had some struggles in Baltimore territory, and their 52-yard field goal was blocked to end the first half. Daniels showed some great ball placement on tough throws to Terry McLaurin, who caught 2 touchdowns (to the chagrin of my best parlays that needed Ekeler or Daniels to run it in).

Even though they lost, I think this is a good measuring stick game for the Commanders, and they should feel solid about how they performed against an elite AFC team. When they look at the rest of the NFC East on Sunday, they can’t feel that bad about this loss.

This game didn’t produce a memorable finish or even a true game-winning drive opportunity, but it was not a Baltimore blowout by any means like they’ve done to so many NFC teams in the Jackson era. Still, he is 22-1 against the NFC now.

Bengals at Giants: Can We Petition the NFL to Stop Putting Daniel Jones in Prime Time?

Daniel Jones is like a Gremlin where you can’t feed him or have him start an NFL game after 8:00 p.m. ET unless you want trouble. Jones is now 1-15 in prime-time starts with the Giants since 2019, and the latest was quite the masterpiece as he lost a 17-7 game at home to the Bengals on Sunday night.

What a week. Bengals fans went from lying about how Patrick Mahomes has never had a defense as bad as the 2024 Bengals, and now let’s see them pass off this game where the Bengals allowed 7 points on 10 drives, the fewest points allowed in Joe Burrow’s first 65 starts.

But it was such a weird game. We would have been scoreless into the third quarter if not for Burrow rushing for a 47-yard touchdown run on a 3rd-and-18 on the opening drive. The red sea parted and he just took off with barely enough speed to reach the pylon.

We were stuck like that for a long time, but the Giants started using four downs to convert some drives, and we eventually had a 10-7 game in the fourth quarter. But not only is Jones horrible in prime time, but we know game-winning drives are not his strength outside of the beginning of that 2022 season. He wasn’t horrific here, but he ran out of steam on a key drive when they had a chance to take the late lead on the Bengals.

Kicker Greg Joseph reminded us he used to kick for the Vikings when he was wide left on a 47-yard field goal that would have tied the game with 10:27 left. But after the Bengals punted, Jones had another chance. It ended with another turnover on downs, the second of the half as he just struggles to make those timing passes into short windows.

Burrow finally made a big play on a 3rd-and-12 with a 29-yard completion, and Chase Brown went from goat to hero (sort of) after scoring a 30-yard touchdown to make it 17-7 with 1:52 left. On the previous snap, Brown fumbled in the open field, which would have been a disaster if the Giants got on the ball before it landed out of bounds.

Brown could have just went down after he got the first, and the game would have been over with kneeldowns. Easiest way to do it and no injury risk to your defenders that way. But he scored to make us forget that fumble (and cover that 3.5-point spread).

On their responding drive, the Giants reached the Cincinnati 27 with the clock ticking under a minute and they spiked the ball with 55 seconds left to bring Joseph out for a 45-yard field goal. He was wide left again and the game was over.

My question is why are teams doing this now? The Broncos did something very similar, if not more egregious, against the Chargers on Sunday in the same situation with a 10-point deficit. Why are we kicking on first down with a minute left with the end zone 20-to-25 yards away? I’d rather take some shots from there to get the touchdown, then I can get my miracle onside kick recovery, then I can set up a long field goal with one or two snaps if it’s going to happen.

That still feels like a better scenario than forcing the field goal, getting the tough onside kick, and possibly having to force a long touchdown play, if not a Hail Mary that’s very low percentage. If you manage the clock and have a play called instead of the spike like the Giants did, you could have been inside the 15 with the clock stopped and 45 seconds left if you use the sidelines.

I don’t know if the Giants and Broncos are just seeing this differently than the rest of the league will, but I didn’t like the rush for the field goal in either scenario Sunday. Even if you recover the onside kick, you’re still going to be about 55 yards from the end zone. How long will it take you to get the 30 yards closer then you are now? Keep in mind the Giants didn’t have a single play gain more than 15 yards all night.

I want to see more examples of this in 2024 to see what other teams do. But the Bengals got the win here as expected, even if the 17-7 outcome was nothing like anyone expected.

Lions at Cowboys: Someone Take Jerry to the Glory Hole for a Better Birthday

I really liked Detroit in this one after what happened last season with the illegal formation penalty in a 20-19 game won by Dallas. But I never expected 47-9 with the Cowboys simply getting destroyed at home on both sides of the ball. The defense getting annihilated without Micah Parsons against that Detroit attack? Sure, that part makes sense.

But the offense couldn’t find the end zone once in 11 drives? Really? Dak Prescott didn’t even throw for 200 yards as they benched him with the game out of hand. The Cowboys finished with 5 turnovers in an embarrassing loss, the worst home loss of Jerry Jones’ career and on his 82nd birthday.

But despite the big win, the Lions suffered a big loss on the day. Aidan Hutchinson was dominating this season and a favorite for Defensive Player of the Year. But on a play where he sacked Prescott in the third quarter, Hutchinson broke his tibia in one of the most gruesome injuries I’ve ever seen in an NFL game.

That’s a terrible break for Detroit as you need that kind of edge rusher for a Super Bowl season. It can’t be all offense every week, but right now, the Lions are clicking on that side of the ball. They were clicking everywhere in Dallas on Sunday.

Cardinals at Packers: Complete Effort

When I picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl or at least get there from the NFC this season, this is the kind of performance I pictured of them at their best. Jordan Love spreading the ball to his weapons with defenses not knowing who to key in against. He threw 4 touchdowns to three different receivers in this one and he didn’t take a sack. The running game was also dominant, and something I didn’t quite expect, but the defense has been stellar at forcing splash plays all year. They had 3 more takeaways in this 34-13 rout.

The Cardinals are frustrating, man. They come up just short of beating Buffalo, they came back to beat the 49ers last week, but they’ve also stunk offensively against the Lions, Commanders, and now Packers. It didn’t help that Marvin Harrison Jr. was injured before he could make a catch in this game but come on. They have enough talent to score more than 13 points.

I’d still like to see a turnover-free game from Love, but 34 points will absolve him here. Now let’s start stacking wins like last year.

Jaguars vs. Bears: Caleb Williams’ Critics Are Getting Quiet Quickly

Just like how you don’t trash Caitlin Clark after 5 games, you don’t dismiss the No. 1 overall pick after a couple of games in the NFL. You can take shots at the competition, but the Bears are scoring points during this 3-game winning streak. They’ve had back-to-back games with at least 35 points.

Williams faced the London Jaguars on their turf, and he threw 4 touchdown passes, completely taking control of the offense in a 35-16 win. Even the 3 sacks he took only lost 5 yards in this game as he completed 23-of-29 passes for 226 yards. Picking apart a bad defense is what you hope to see from a rookie, and Williams delivered with Cole Kmet and Keenan Allen both catching a pair of touchdowns. D.J. Moore (20 yards) didn’t even have to do much this week, which speaks to Williams’ ability to spread the ball around and make things happen.

All of a sudden, I don’t hear the Justin Fields truthers complaining that he’s gone. I don’t see the people burying the Bears for this pick or poking fun at the thought of Williams having the best supporting cast for a rookie QB drafted No. 1 overall.

We’ll see what happens in these division games as the NFC North is incredible to start this season. But Williams is an impressive rookie and Chicago fans can be excited again. As for the Jaguars, they’re reportedly staying in London for the New England game next Sunday. If they lose that one too, I’m thinking Doug Pederson gets the axe a la Robert Saleh.

Texans at Patriots: Drake Maye Era Begins

Can we stop pretending like Drake Maye would have died if he started a game in September for the Patriots? He faced the best pass rush in Houston, took 4 sacks, but still threw 3 touchdowns (Jacoby Brissett had 2 all season), threw for 243 yards, and he led the team with 38 rushing yards as they couldn’t provide him with a running game.

Were their mistakes? Sure, he had 3 turnovers, but what did you expect? Houston was marching early for touchdowns and he was chasing. But there were positive moments and fans should feel optimistic given how ugly some of those Week 1 rookie starts were this year.

It’s also amusing to me that in one Drake Maye start, the Patriots allowed 41 points on defense. Tom Brady only had one game his entire career where they allowed more points than that. Go figure.

But Houston is one of the best teams he could have faced this year. Better days will be ahead. Try to focus on the positives in the 41-21 loss. At the same time, Houston finally won a game by more than 6 points this year, so good for them too. Joe Mixon has been stellar in his two full games for this offense, which didn’t miss Nico Collins at all for this matchup.

Browns at Eagles: Philly Has No Aura

I’m always talking about the quick turnarounds in the NFC and how that conference loves to produce a new flash in the pan each year. The Eagles are a great example of this. They had a great season in 2022 when they reached the Super Bowl, then they were 10-1 last year even if they were very fortunate to win several of those games, which foreshadowed their collapse.

But this team has no aura anymore. Even with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith returning for this game, which was critical as they won it for Jalen Hurts with the running game stuffed, the Eagles still struggled at home to score 20 points. They were in a dogfight with Deshaun Watson, who took 5 more sacks and sucked on 3rd down again.

This was a 13-13 game in the fourth quarter before Smith took a short pass and turned it into a 45-yard game-winning touchdown with half a quarter left. The Browns had their chances in the fourth quarter but settled for a field goal both times. The last one made it 20-16 with 3:54 left.

The Eagles were able to bleed the clock on offense with Brown making a 40-yard catch to ice it. Brown and Smith had 3-of-4 plays that gained over 20 yards for the Eagles in this game.

If they were playing a better quarterback than Watson, which would be about anyone in 2024, things may have gone worse in this one. The Eagles are 3-2, and that’s only good enough for No. 9 in the NFC at the moment.

They’ll have to play much better than this to leapfrog some of these teams, but the division is still their clearest path to the playoffs. But I’ll be curious to see how this defense handles Jayden Daniels and the Commanders twice.

Steelers at Raiders: Guess Oakland Had the Voodoo That Vegas Doesn’t

I’m so used to the Steelers going on the road to lose to the Raiders, but maybe Las Vegas doesn’t hold the same voodoo for them that the Oakland Coliseum had. The Steelers won in Vegas last year, the only game where Kenny Pickett threw two touchdown passes. The Steelers won there again this time with Najee Harris finally ending his touchdown drought with a great effort on a 36-yard run.

But there weren’t many offensive highlights outside of that. After falling behind 7-6, the Steelers lived on short fields the rest of the way, which has a lot to do with the 32 points. Justin Fields struggled to sustain offense, but it’s hard not to put up decent points when you’re starting two drives inside the opponent’s 10 and another two drives inside the 36. The Raiders also had some crucial roughing penalties to take away a Fields’ pick and a 3rd-down stop that extended another scoring drive.

Russell Wilson was active for the first time all season but remained a backup. I guess the win won’t change a thing for Tomlin’s choice at quarterback, but I still think this team is screwed when Fields has to outscore the better teams. Fortunately, this was Aidan O’Connell trying his best without Davante Adams or Jakobi Meyers available.

T.J. Watt is also the likely favorite for Defensive Player of the Year after the Aidan Hutchinson injury. He forced two fumbles in this one. Just one of the best players ever at knocking the ball out.

Chargers at Broncos: Healthy Justin Herbert Returns

The intrigue at the start of this one was when coach Jim Harbaugh momentarily left the game for what was an arrhythmia situation. Thankfully, he was able to return. Thankfully, the Chargers didn’t blow a 23-0 lead in the fourth quarter, though they tried their best.

But a healthy Justin Herbert made a big difference as he threw for more yards by halftime than he had in any full game this season after having the bye week to heal up. The Broncos’ defense had been playing very well, but Herbert had no problems early, and it didn’t hurt that Patrick Surtain left with an injury.

But you would like to see the Chargers close things out better than this after giving up the last 16 points in the last 11 minutes. Fortunately, the Broncos didn’t recover the onside kick after getting a second crack at it.

Buccaneers at Saints: Baker’s 50 Burger

What a nutty, frustrating game. One of my core plays this week was Chris Olave going over 5.5 yards in the first quarter after rookie Spencer Rattler talked about getting him the ball after a quiet game against the Chiefs. He was facing the Tampa defense that gave up over 500 yards to Kirk Cousins last week. It made too much sense.

Of course, Rattler fires a pass to Olave in trouble on the third snap of the opening drive, he takes a huge helmet-to-helmet shot, fumbles the ball for a (questionable) touchdown by the defense, and the play only gained 5 yards. He missed the rest of the game for the concussion, something that has plagued his career.

That’s the kind of shit that will make you quit gambling. He just had to lead him into a huge hit like that. Then before you know it, the Saints are down 17-0 and everything looks so bleak. But not even 11 minutes later, they were leading 20-17 thanks to some Baker Mayfield turnovers and a punt return touchdown by Rashid Shaheed. Before you know it, the Saints put up 27 points in the second quarter with Rattler looking like a cheap imitation of Patrick Mahomes.

But the Saints never scored again. In fact, this is the first time since a Mahomes game against the 2019 Raiders where a team scored this many points (28 in that case) in the second quarter and none in any other quarter. That game actually was scoreless by both teams after halftime.

Not the case here. Even though Mayfield threw 3 interceptions, he had this offense moving all day to the tune of 594 yards. He also threw for 325 yards and 4 touchdowns with Chris Godwin (11/125/2) posting a huge line. Without Rachaad White, the Buccaneers rushed for 277 yards and eventually put up 51 points.

This was still a 31-27 game with a quarter left, but Rattler threw a bad pick immediately to start the fourth quarter. That’s when the avalanches really started as Tampa won 51-27. But it was a very weird game script.

Colts at Titans: Flacco Delivers in Surprise Start

I’m sure Shane Steichen gets the sense that his offense is better with Joe Flacco than it is Anthony Richardson, especially when Jonathan Taylor is inactive. Richardson was supposed to start, but Flacco got the call in the end. It was just that kind of week for the Colts as No. 1 wide receiver Michael Pittman was supposed to go on injured reserve for his bad back, but he ended up playing and had a huge impact.

Pittman came down with a 10-yard game-winning touchdown with 7:27 left. Pittman also made a 16-yard grab at the two-minute warning that allowed the Colts to run most of the clock with a 20-17 lead. The Titans only had time left for the lateral play to end it.

But the Titans had the ball multiple times in the fourth quarter, only needing a field goal to tie. Will Levis threw a pick with 4:52 left, then they decided to punt on a 4th-and-7 at their own 25 with 2:26 left. They had three clock stoppages left, but it was probably the wrong decision in a 20-17 game. They only had 12 seconds when they got the ball back to work with.

Of course, having Will Levis as your quarterback probably means you’re screwed even if the game was another 30 minutes. Levis finished 16-of-27 for 95 yards against what has been one of the worst defenses this year. He was 0-for-8 when targeting to Calvin Ridley, who I can tell you I won’t be targeting again in prop picks the rest of the season. He’s made the shitlist.

I really think the Titans need to be close to benching Levis for Mason Rudolph. If you look at their touchdown drives in this game, one was 27 yards after a Flacco pick, and the other was only made possible by Tony Pollard breaking a 23-yard run on 3rd-and-19.

This game also reminded me of just how many flags Flacco draws with his dangerous passes. He had 5 flags drawn in this game for defensive pass interference, defensive holding, illegal contact, or roughing the passer, including a wiped-out pick and several third-down incompletions erased by penalty.

But that’s Flacco. He just keeps slinging it – eight straight games with multiple touchdown passes – even in games where he wasn’t supposed to play.

Falcons at Panthers: Rare Easy Win for Kirk Cousins

In typical Kirk Cousins fashion, the Falcons have been living on the edge all season, having already won three of the most improbable games of the 2024 season. This looked like the last hope for some late-game drama in the late-afternoon window as Cousins and Andy Dalton were trading scoring drives as Atlanta took a 28-20 lead into the fourth quarter.

But in a familiar story for the Panthers for many years now, they folded in the fourth. Dalton was intercepted in scoring territory, and the Falcons cranked up their running game in this one – over 200 yards before Cousins’ kneeldowns – and put together an 84-yard touchdown drive to make it 35-20. A quick four-and-out by Carolina led to another field goal and a 38-20 final. Dalton threw another pick to officially end things.

At 1-5, I expect Carolina to turn things back to Bryce Young. You have to see what more you have there, and maybe he’ll try things differently after this benching. Dalton is what he is, and it’s just not enough to compete this year. Let’s get some assurance that Young sucks and the team needs to shop elsewhere for 2025.

Next week: I see an early writing night on Thursday with Saints-Broncos, but Sean Payton will probably win that one in New Orleans. I’m sleeping in even longer for Patriots-Jaguars than I did for Bears-Jaguars in London. But the NFL actually delivers with the rest of the Week 7 schedule, including Packers-Texans, Lions-Vikings, and Chiefs-49ers. Not fond of Jets-Steelers on SNF, but Ravens-Buccaneers is coming at a great time on a MNF doubleheader with the less important Chargers-Cardinals. Don’t think we’ll have two undefeated teams left after this Sunday.