Tag: Ravens

NFL 2024 Week 6 Predictions: Favoring the Favorites Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

My NFL picks have a problem this week in that I didn’t pick a single underdog to win on Sunday. I’ll explain why below, but I know I’m likely setting myself up for trouble. However, underdogs have already had such a strong season that it’s well past time things start trending the other way on that.

The potential Game of the Week is Commanders-Ravens given how explosive those offenses have been and how untrustworthy the defenses are this year. But I actually think that game is going to disappoint and we’re going to get a double-digit Baltimore victory as Lamar Jackson improves to 22-1 vs. NFC opponents who just don’t know how to handle him.

In past years, I’d take the bait on Washington +6.5, talking about Jayden Daniels jumping ahead of Lamar Jackson in the MVP odds, and that great offense taking advantage of a vulnerable Baltimore defense. Does that make sense this week? Absolutely. But I’m looking to zig when others are zagging as I see the public is on Washington +6.5 quite heavily. Feels like the spot where the young team and rookie disappoint, and Baltimore establishes some dominance at home with an easier win that probably won’t even be a massive shootout. Think Lions-Cowboys or Packers-Cardinals for that tomorrow.

I’d welcome being wrong on WAS-BAL since a new power with a rookie QB would be very cool to see, but I just think the status quo isn’t ready to change on that one.

This Week’s Articles

  • 2024 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 6 – Looking at Josh Allen’s rough game in Houston (1992 Seahawks reference), and the rookies are heating up.
  • Top Options for Player Props – 5 players (evergreen) who look most trustworthy for prop betting this season.
  • Bengals-Giants SNF Picks – Daniel Jones is 1-14 in prime time and has been held under 21.5 points in 13-of-15 games.
  • Scott’s Seven NFL Picks Week 6 – I really like a Josh Allen INT, Chris Olave to go over 5.5 yards in the 1st quarter, and the Texans to beat a scrambling Drake Maye in New England. Also trusting Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, and for the Steelers to finally get Najee Harris in the end zone.

2024 NFL Week 6 Predictions

Started things off with a win this week as the Seahawks just can’t seem to outscore the 49ers anymore.

Here’s why I struggled to pick any underdog to win on Sunday.

Jags-Bears: Maybe Jacksonville found something with Tank Bigsby and the running game last week, but more importantly, they are pros in the London experience and I think that helps them edge out a win here.

Commanders-Ravens: Already gave my thoughts on this one above, and I think Brian Robinson Jr. being out reinforces the idea that the Commanders won’t be as effective on offense in Baltimore, and Lamar and Henry are going to torture that defense.

Bucs-Saints: While I love Chris Olave 1Q stats in this one, I don’t trust rookie Spencer Rattler enough for the whole game, and I think the Bucs are playing better ball right now while the Saints have really struggled after that hot start. Give me Tampa to win one after a difficult week with the OT loss and the area dealing with hurricanes. Bucky Irving gets a TD to make up for the fumble last week.

Browns-Eagles: Maybe some upset potential, but I just can’t trust Deshaun Watson to win any game right now. Look for the Eagles to get after him and for Jalen Hurts to be very happy that his WRs are back.

Colts-Titans: I’d take Indy if Joe Flacco was the QB, but I don’t trust Anthony Richardson to get the job done. I sure don’t trust Will Levis either, but I think with the bye week and a defense that is playing very poorly for the Colts, they’ll find a way to stack wins and get it done here.

Texans-Patriots: The Texans have a negative scoring differential this season as they haven’t won any game by more than 6 points, and they lost 34-7 to the Vikings. Definitely not playing as great as I expected, and now Nico Collins is out. But I think the best pass rush puts Drake Maye through a blender and they get their biggest MOV win this season. Even if it’s a 20-13 game, that’ll do, pig.

Cardinals-Packers: Maybe I’m losing it, but I think this has 30-27 potential as a fun late afternoon game. As long as Kyler Murray can avoid those pesky turnovers on the road, that is.

Chargers-Broncos: It sounds like Justin Herbert is as healthy as he’s been all season after the bye. Bo Nix seems to be absolutely dreadful every other week, so I’m going to trust Herbert and Jim Harbaugh’s defense to get this road win and stop Denver’s winning streak.

Steelers-Raiders: Under normal circumstances, I’d pick the Raiders to win this. But maybe Vegas isn’t Oakland as far as a hellhole for Mike Tomlin to visit and lose a game he should win. They won there last year with Kenny Pickett throwing 2 TDs for the only time in his career. Throw in the Steelers losing last week to Dallas at the end, the Raiders not having Davante Adams or Jakobi Meyers available, and I think it’s trending Pittsburgh’s way. But I wouldn’t be shocked if they barely covered the spread regardless.

Falcons-Panthers: Can we really trust the Falcons to win any game by a big margin right now? Could be a nice little back-and-forth game with Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton here. Throw in that shitty pass rush from the Falcons, and that’s why I like Dalton to go over in passing yards.

Lions-Cowboys: This could be the best game of the day, but I’m backing the Lions to get revenge for last year’s controversial 20-19 loss on that illegal formation penalty. Micah Parsons and other key parts of that defense being out for Dallas is the deciding factor here. Jared Goff won’t hit 100% of his passes again, but I think that offense stays hot and wins this one.

Bengals-Giants: Got the preview link above for this one. I think without Malik Nabers, the Giants aren’t going to score enough points to win. Sacking Joe Burrow 5+ times is their only hope and I don’t think it’ll happen.

Bills-Jets: This is similar to 49ers-Seahawks in that it’s a game for first place, but both teams lost last week and are disappointing us at the moment. The 49ers, the preseason favorite, prevailed on Thursday night, but I’m not counting on the same for Buffalo, especially after I think Josh Allen played with a concussion at the end of that game in Houston where he was 9-for-30. The Jets have a good defense and we have seen them make him struggle before. He has no picks this year, but that streak should come to an end in this game. And even though I don’t think firing Robert Saleh now fixes anything, somehow I see Aaron Rodgers getting a win this week even though it was his poor play against Denver and Minnesota that got Saleh fired.

More parlay plays to come on Twitter, so stay tuned there.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 5

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Week 5 was a step in the right direction for this 2024 NFL season. More scoring and more lead changes – that’s all I really want in the end. We had a few Game of the Year candidates, and the best of them all was probably played Thursday night in Atlanta against Tampa Bay.

But Ravens-Bengals exceeded the hype, Bills-Texans was oddly exciting, the Cardinals shocked the 49ers, and the Cowboys basically shot themselves in the foot all night before putting the dagger in Pittsburgh.

We had seven game-winning drives this week, the most since Week 1 of the 2023 season, and that’s pretty good with four teams on a bye and one game left Monday night that could easily add to this.

Overall, 10-of-13 games had a comeback opportunity, so it was a lot of close action, and the games that weren’t close were basically shit you weren’t going to care about anyway.

But I sure did get a lot of use out of “Same Old” headlines this week as a lot of these games did maintain the status quo for certain teams and players.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Ravens at Bengals: Same Old Bungles (As the AFC North Turns)

Joe Burrow said he’d have to be perfect to win this game, and he was pretty accurate about that. It proved to be one of the biggest shootouts and best games in AFC North history as the Ravens came back to win 41-38 in overtime after some stunning twists and turns down the stretch.

The tide turned in the first half after Derrick Henry was tackled for a safety, then Burrow found Ja’Marr Chase for a 41-yard touchdown to end the first half. From there, it was Baltimore chasing the whole second half.

But Lamar Jackson was game in one of the best passing performances of his career. He threw for 348 yards and 4 touchdowns. Burrow also had one of his best games with 392 yards and 5 touchdown passes as Chase had a monster game with 193 yards.

When Chase took a short pass 70 yards for a touchdown with 8:54 left to give the Bengals a 38-28 lead, it sure didn’t feel like Baltimore’s day. Jackson hadn’t led a game-winning drive in a game where Baltimore allowed more than 17 points since November 2021.

But Jackson led a touchdown drive that culminated in one of the greatest plays of his career:

Up 38-35, the Bengals had a chance to either ice the game with a first down, or they could have added a field goal to take a 6-point lead (as dreaded as that sounds). But Burrow made his only big mistake when he threw a bad interception with 3:01 left.

Baltimore’s drive stalled, but Justin Tucker had the offense’s back with a 56-yard field goal to tie it. Here we were again with Burrow having a chance for a legacy drive with 1:35 left in a tied game, but he immediately took a sack that derailed things. The Bengals went three-and-out and the game went to overtime.

Something had to give here with Jackson not leading any game-winning drive since the 2022 season, and Burrow having his own problems with a lack of a killer instinct.

The Ravens got the ball first, and sure enough, Jackson took his eye off the ball and fumbled the snap in field goal range. The Bengals returned it to the Baltimore 38, setting themselves up to win the game on a field goal. But as we’ve seen before with this team and Zac Taylor, they were content with just running the ball and setting up a very long field goal, which is usually a bad idea unless you have Tucker as your kicker.

After gaining just 3 yards, the Bengals attempted a 53-yard field goal, and a bad hold looked responsible for throwing off the kick as Evan McPherson was wide left. On the very next snap, Henry made up for his quiet game with a 51-yard run down to the Cincinnati 6. Without risking another fumbled snap or screw-up, the Ravens did the right thing and immediately kicked the 24-yard field goal with Tucker to win the game 41-38. You know he delivered.

Just like that, the Ravens went from falling into the 2-3 muck with the Bengals in the AFC North race to back on top after the Steelers lost on Sunday night to also fall to 3-2.

I would say the Bengals are finished at 1-4, but the AFC is not good enough right now to rule them out for a wild card berth. But the division title may be a pipe dream now. That Cincinnati defense is just rotten this year, and while the Ravens have their own issues, a healthy dose of Jackson and Henry is going to be tough to deal with.

I don’t know if I could say in good faith that the Ravens are the best team in the NFL after they should have lost this game. But they continue to be a tough out and unique challenge for everyone.

Cowboys at Steelers: Same Old Steelers

I feel like I’m in some Twilight Zone where people keep giving Justin Fields credit for an “almost comeback” last week as if we didn’t see that several times in Chicago from him. I also don’t get the celebration of the Steelers playing another sloppy grind of a game like they always do as if that’s a good thing. It’s why this team is always flirting with .500 and never winning playoff games anymore. This is not good football when you trial 6-3 at halftime because you’re playing scared, chickenshit offense and your defense is living for splash plays because you give up so many yards otherwise.

Stick a competent quarterback against this defense and it’s going to struggle. Dak Prescott finally pulled his head out of his ass on the final drive to deliver a dagger with 20 seconds left to Jalen Tolbert for the win on a long-developing play:

Great, patient throw. The Cowboys were staring down a 17-13 deficit, a minus-3 mark in the turnover department, and they had a field goal blocked. It’s really hard to win on the road when you face those circumstances, but they pulled it out. They also deserved the win as they outgained the Steelers 445-226. They just shot themselves in the foot more.

I still think the Steelers should start Russell Wilson as soon as he’s cleared. He’ll do more than complete four passes in the first half as it still looks like they’re not fully trusting Fields. Hence doing things like running the ball on 3rd-and-8 while trailing 3-0. That’s not normal for NFL offenses.

Wilson will also give them a bigger edge in close games, something this team can’t seem to escape.

Bills at Texans: Same Old 2019 Josh Allen?

Josh Allen was back in the building where he played his first playoff game in the 2019 AFC Wild Card against the Texans. He lost that one in overtime, a game I remember best for his wild lateral attempt at midfield that he didn’t need to do. But he was a loose cannon back then and not nearly as good as he’d become starting in 2020 when the team acquired wide receiver Stefon Diggs.

Well, Diggs and Allen were back together on Sunday, but this time they were rivals after the April trade that sent Diggs to Houston. It couldn’t have come at a better time too as Nico Collins left this game injured after smoking the defense for a 67-yard touchdown catch. Diggs had to step up in his absence, and he finished with 6 catches for 82 yards.

Meanwhile, Allen finished 9-of-30 for 131 yards, an unfathomable stat line for any quarterback in 2024, let alone Allen. I saw some drops but I don’t know what the actual number was. But Allen certainly looked scattershot and not that confident with the group around him, which didn’t include Khalil Shakir after his injury last week.

It truly was a game where the Bills lacked receivers in Diggs’ absence, and the Texans were aided by the Diggs trade to make up for losing Collins. How fitting.

But while C.J. Stroud had a strong start to this game when it was 20-3 Houston, looking like he deserved to jump Allen in the MVP odds, he did not finish this game like an MVP. Stroud got into turnover problems with a pick in Buffalo territory, a strip-sack that set up the game-tying field goal for Buffalo, and then he got called for an intentional grounding penalty that knocked the Texans out of field goal range in the final minute. Just one mistake after another.

But the biggest story was when Allen’s head clearly hit the ground on a bad play, and he looked like he may have gone to sleep for a few seconds. Everyone was thinking concussion, but somehow, Allen was cleared and only missed one snap. It makes you wonder just how thorough that test was and if he didn’t use his star status to stay in the game. That one didn’t pass the sniff test for me.

Upon returning, Allen sure played as if he had a brain injury. Coach Sean McDermott is taking the blame, but Buffalo’s approach to the final drive in a 20-20 game was mind boggling. They had 1st-and-10 at their own 3 with 32 seconds left, so that’s not an enviable position. You are afraid to run since you might get a safety if you give it that deep to a back, and Houston also had 3 timeouts.

It was realistic that the Bills could run the ball 3 times, the Texans call their timeouts, and you still risk a punt with seconds left with Houston having a shot to do something. On that level, I can understand coming out trying to throw. But you still have to call good plays and make smart throws that will likely be completed and run clock to make the Texans burn those timeouts.

Allen was throwing dangerous passes that could have been picked off, and even if they were complete, the gain wasn’t worth it as the Bills were out of timeouts and would have had a hard time getting into range.

It was just absolutely bizarre as Allen threw three straight incompletions and the Bills punted on a drive that took 25 seconds, gained no yards, and allowed the Texans to keep all their timeouts. Just poor situational awareness.

Stroud completed a 5-yard pass, the receiver went down, and the Texans called timeout with 2 seconds left. Guess what? If they used their 3 timeouts to get the ball back from Buffalo, they wouldn’t have had that option there. They would have needed to get out of bounds, which is harder to do. That’s why the 3 incompletions were such a fvck-up.

Fairbairn was able to connect from 59 yards on the best kick of his career to win 23-20. It wasn’t pretty at all, but have you seen the way the Chiefs are winning? Did you see how Baltimore got past Dallas and Cincy? This will do as the early portion of the game at least showed the Texans could take it to Buffalo, a potential playoff foe down the road.

There should definitely be some concerns with that Buffalo offense. Forget the Chiefs and Jets. The Bills should be in those wide receiver trade markets as I don’t think they have enough here to beat the top AFC teams this year.

Cardinals at 49ers: Same Old Shanahan

It’s hard to identify any real trends in what goes into Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers blowing a game they should have won. All I know is that it happens frequently enough, and that’s why I hated the graphic FOX tried pushing in the fourth quarter of this game that said Shanahan’s team was 38-0 when entering the fourth quarter with a 10+ point lead. The 49ers were up 23-10 at halftime and 23-13 going into the fourth quarter of this one.

First, I hate graphics like this because they lead to people drawing the false conclusion that he’s never lost a game with a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. This is just the score at the start of the quarter. Isn’t it more relevant what the score was even later in the game?

That’s what I hate about “entering the fourth quarter” stats as the score with 15:00 left isn’t as important as say 7:00 left. Just two weeks ago, the 49ers were up 10 points against the Rams with less than half the quarter to play, and they found a way to lose that one.

Also, this ignores the playoffs where he know Shanahan lost Super Bowl LIX to the Chiefs after leading 20-10 to enter the 4th, and he lost the 2021 NFC Championship Game to the Rams after leading 17-7 to enter the 4th. Those were losses too, among the biggest in his career.

With that said, this one still shocked me as the Cardinals seemed snakebitten. They had a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. But things took a turn in the second half when the 49ers had to play without kicker Jake Moody. I still think he’s a liability, but he’s better than not having a kicker. That injury led to the 49ers going for a 4th-and-23 instead of adding a 45-yard field goal to their lead.

Even if the 49ers got into field-goal range on the last drive, I’m not sure they would have been able to capitalize given the injured kicker situation. But I also don’t like that Brock Purdy is going to get the brunt of the blame for another loss that’s dropped this team to 2-3.

Yes, he didn’t play his best game, but he had a tipped pick, he had the misfortune of the kicker situation, and running back Jordan Mason really screwed them with a bad fumble on first down in the red zone with just over 6:00 left in a 23-21 game. Not to mention the reason the Cardinals were down 23-21 instead of 23-20 was a roughing the passer penalty on the defense, so the Cardinals took the 2-point conversion from the 1-yard line, a smart move.

The Cardinals took the Mason fumble and drove for the go-ahead field goal to make it 24-23 with 1:37 left. Again, I’m not sure the 49ers would have been able to settle for a field goal on the drive unless it was super short.

But after one completion, Purdy was hit in motion as he threw, the ball fluttered, and it was intercepted to end the game. That’s just how it goes sometimes, but the 49ers again found themselves in a position they shouldn’t have been in.

This happens a bit too often for Shanahan’s team. The only good news is Seattle lost too as a big favorite at home. They’ll meet each other this Thursday night in Seattle.

Jets vs. Vikings: Same Old Rodgers (And Same Old Darnold?)

If you’re Davante Adams, do you even want to go back to the Jets when they look like this with Aaron Rodgers? He threw two picks in the first quarter, a new thing for him, and that includes a pick-six that helped the Vikings take a 17-0 lead. Minnesota has not trailed in a game since the first quarter of Week 1 against the Giants.

But before you thought this would be a blowout, keep in mind Sam Darnold had the worst game of his 2024 season and brief time with Minnesota. He was picked in the fourth quarter too, and the offense missed Aaron Jones after an injury knocked him out. They only scored 16 points on offense this week with Darnold not throwing any touchdowns.

Rodgers chipped away at that defense, but he ended up throwing for 244 yards on 54 attempts, including 101 yards on 22 targets to Garrett Wilson. That’s not very efficient at all. I don’t think the weapons are that bad for Rodgers in this offense, but he just doesn’t seem to have built good chemistry with anyone yet.

Down 23-17 late, it looked like Rodgers might actually pull off the comeback. But while he usually takes interception avoidance to another level in these moments, this time he threw a pass to Mike Williams down the sideline that veteran Stephon Gilmore picked off with 44 seconds left to help the Vikings to 5-0 and drop the Jets to 2-3.

Rodgers took a beating in this game and it’s hard to see him lasting a full season at this rate. I’m not sure adding Adams is the cure-all for this offense, but it is the side of the team that is holding them back. The defense did a good job of limiting the Vikings and keeping this game within reach.

As for the Vikings, they get an early bye and have a huge game with Detroit at home in Week 7. They’ll hope the real Sam Darnold doesn’t come back when they do, because Sunday was not as encouraging as the first four games for him.

Packers at Rams: Same Old West Coast Stafford?

Matthew Stafford always had some Philip Rivers-type gunslinger qualities in him. He was better in crunch time than Rivers, but with Rivers retired, we needed someone to fill the void of a quarterback always stuck in a one-score game in the late window. Sure, Justin Herbert does a good job of that with the Chargers, but he’s been hurt lately.

It falls on Stafford, who once again found himself with the ball late in a 24-19 game against Green Bay thanks to some horrific decisions by Jordan Love, who turned a safety into a pick-six. Will Levis didn’t play this weekend, but his spirit was kept alive by Love here:

But the Packers also picked Stafford with Xavier McKinney adding to his great start to the season. Still, it was only a 24-19 game late and it came down to another last-gasp effort by Stafford. He was unable to convert a 4th-and-5 this time with 1:02 left, and that was the ballgame.

The Packers are actually getting more consistent play from their defense than their offense right now, but if Love can ever get on track this year, they have a chance to go far.

Browns at Commanders: Same Old Sack Merchant

The Washington Commanders had their least efficient game on offense this season, punting 4 times and turning it over twice. Jayden Daniels completed 56% of his passes instead of the 82% he was at.

And still it was good enough to win 34-13 over a Cleveland team that is playing a lot of bad football right now. But for all the problems Cleveland has, nothing is worse than the way Deshaun Watson plays quarterback. He took 7 more sacks as he is just a magnet for defenders even in ways we didn’t see in Houston.

Watson’s QBR is down to 21.0 this season. In any other situation, he’d have been benched already, but coach Kevin Stefanski insists he’s still the QB1 in Cleveland. Keep this up and you’ll be unemployed while he’s still there fleecing the organization, Kevin.

Daniels in Washington just goes to show how quickly you can turn things around in this league with the right pick at quarterback. The Texans did it a couple years after Watson left with C.J. Stroud too. Cleveland never seems to find that guy, but the answer sure as hell isn’t keeping Watson as the starter.

Colts at Jaguars: Same Old Indy in Jacksonville

Something had to give here:

  • The Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014, losing eight straight trips there (plus one in London against Blake Bortles).
  • The Jaguars had lost 9 straight games started by quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the quarterback who practically can’t win a game if he doesn’t complete better than 60% of his passes.

Well, it was a wild path to a 37-34 win with Joe Flacco putting the fear of God in Jacksonville fans with some classic deep ball prayers that were answered by Alec Pierce. The Colts just didn’t want to die in this game despite trailing 20-10, 27-17, 34-20 in the fourth quarter alone.

Flacco’s 65-yard touchdown to Pierce tied the game at 34 with 2:40 left. But Lawrence finally had one of those sharp, efficient games as he threw for a career-high 371 yards on his 25th birthday. He completed 28-of-34 passes too, and it looks like the Jags have a stud in rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr., who had 122 yards and another big touchdown. Tank Bigsby also showed off some big-play ability at running back, so Travis Etienne may be taking a backseat in this offense.

But game on the line, Lawrence did a good job of moving into field-goal range. Certainly better than you saw from C.J. Stroud, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow in the same window on Sunday.

The Jaguars made a 49-yard field goal with 17 seconds left, and that was good enough to hang on for the 37-34 win, the team’s first win of 2024. But it actually may be a more troubling game for the Colts as someone is going to have to ask coach Shane Steichen why his offense does better with Gardner Minshew and Flacco at quarterback than it does the injury-prone Anthony Richardson. That’s troubling.

Giants at Seahawks: Same Old Pete Carroll Type of Loss?

We’ve seen the Seahawks lose at home to a bad Giants team before. I remember the 2020 loss when they were an 11-point favorite. But I really didn’t think it would happen this time without Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary available.

But the Giants marched up and down the field with Darius Slayton crapping out a 122-yard game, and the running back Tracy (Dick?) rushed for 129 yards. Embarrassing stuff. This game shouldn’t even have been this close as the Seahawks only got on the board early with a fortunate fumble at the goal line that was scooped up for a 102-yard return. If that was ruled a New York touchdown on the field, it probably would have stood as it was that close.

Can someone tell me exactly who was out on the defense for Seattle to have such miserable results after allowing the Lions to complete 100% of their passes last week? I know rookie Byron Murphy was out again, and I know rusher Boye Mafe missed his second-straight game. But who else is going to make that much of a difference after the Seahawks played very good defense in Weeks 1-3?

The Seahawks must have been so scared of their defense that they went for a 4th-and-1 at their own 35 while trailing 20-13 with nearly a whole quarter left. I don’t like that call as the offense wasn’t playing nearly well enough to think they’d march the 65+ yards for a touchdown even if they converted. Fail there and you’re almost guaranteed to go down two scores, which they did. Worse, Geno Smith took a sack and gave up 7 more yards in field position. He had great scrambles (72 rushing yards) in this game, but his passing was not up to snuff.

But despite all the struggles, the Seahawks were in position to win this game, or at least force overtime. Down 23-20, Geno’s 32-yard scramble put them in field goal range, but they didn’t get much closer than that. The 47-yard field goal was emphatically blocked with 0:55 left for a touchdown return, and that’s your ballgame, a rough 29-20 loss for Seattle.

The only good news is the 49ers blew their game against Arizona, setting up an awkward battle this Thursday night in the NFC West.

Panthers at Bears: NOT the Same Old Chicago Offense?

There’s not much complaining now about Caleb Williams after three games that have been much more promising after that rough start. Such is the life of a rookie quarterback in this league. Williams finished with 304 yards and 2 touchdown passes in this one, and he almost had a highlight-worthy touchdown run that was taken away by penalty.

But this is more along the lines of what we thought when writing this offseason that the Bears were putting the best situation around Williams among all No. 1 picks. The defense was again very good as Andy Dalton was eventually benched for Bryce Young in the 36-10 loss. D.J. Moore had a huge game with 105 yards and 2 touchdowns. Williams only took 1 sack against 29 passes thrown.

The Bears are 3-2 and things are moving in the right direction. But it will get harder once they start playing these NFC North games. It looks like the best division this year as none of the teams are objectively bad.

Raiders at Broncos: NOT the Same Old Raiders vs. Denver in the 2020s

Did you know the Raiders were 8-0 against Denver since moving to Vegas in 2020? Well, that streak is no more as Sean Payton helped end another one for his Broncos in the AFC West. They ended their 16-game losing streak to the Chiefs last season.

This one didn’t start well with a 10-0 deficit as rookie tight end Brock Bowers produced a big play for his first touchdown. But Gardner Minshew made some ghastly interceptions that I thought would get him benched this week, but Antonio Pierce wasted no time and pulled him in this game for Aidan O’Connell. But that predictably didn’t help, and it appears Bo Nix is decent every other week as he had another solid game in this one after last week’s embarrassment (despite the win) in the rain.

Denver went on a 34-0 scoring run to win 34-18. It was a lot of scoring on short fields, almost like they did in 2023, so I wouldn’t get too excited yet. But that is three straight wins for Denver, and they finally ended that losing streak to their rivals from Las Vegas.

But the coolest thing in this game? Those throwback uniforms for Denver:

Dolphins at Patriots: Same Old Offensive Woes in New England

These teams predictably struggled to score in a 15-10 game between the NFL’s worst scoring offenses. But the Patriots had a 10-9 lead in the fourth quarter. They picked a bad time to throw the ball on consecutive attempts on the outskirts of field-goal range, and that allowed the Dolphins to get the ball back in a 10-9 game and drive for a long touchdown march after discovering the running game worked in New England.

Down 15-10, Jacoby Brissett looked like he had a go-ahead touchdown to rookie Ja’Lynn Polk, but he didn’t come down with the completion on a missed opportunity. The Pats turned it over on downs, then rushed a throw to the Miami 11 as time expired on their latest loss.

You can get Tua Tagovailoa back or start Drake Maye, but neither team appears to be going anywhere this season.

Next week: We’ll see what the Chiefs do Monday night, but it’s possible both 5-0 teams (KC and Vikings) are on a bye in Week 6. Thursday night’s 49ers-Seahawks game takes a weird turn after both teams lost as touchdown favorites at home on Sunday. No chance I’m getting up early for Jags-Bears on Sunday. Commanders-Ravens in the early afternoon slot sounds great. Lions-Cowboys headlines the late window, then we get Bengals-Giants on SNF. Who possibly could have thought that was a good idea? Then it’s Bills-Jets on MNF, which very similar to TNF, it’s a first-place battle between teams that are disappointing us so far. But sure, sign me up for Jayden Daniels against this vulnerable Baltimore defense.

NFL 2024 Week 5 Predictions: Revenge Week Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Is the passing game back in the NFL? The last two games have seen the Lions complete 100% of their passes and we were treated to Thursday night’s spectacle where Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards in a win over Tampa Bay. I can only hope this leads to better results this weekend since there are some quality games in Jets-Vikings, Bills-Texans, Ravens-Bengals, Cowboys-Steelers, and Saints-Chiefs.

But there are some revenge-themed games here too with Stefon Diggs taking on the Bills for the first time since the trade, and Sam Darnold already beat the Jets with Carolina in 2021, but he’ll get his crack at them in the first London game of the season with the 4-0 Vikings. Steelers-Cowboys is also a classic rivalry from the 70s with flagship franchises, and that Ravens-Bengals game should be a good one with both teams knowing how important it is after their slow starts.

This Week’s Articles

NFL 2024 Week 5 Predictions

The Falcons really had no business winning that game, but that’s the third time this season I can say that about that team.

I wanted to pick more underdogs this week but found it difficult. Sure, I can see some wild things happening like the Jets spanking the Vikings, the Bengals staying alive against Baltimore, Washington getting exposed defensively and a learning curve experience for Jayden Daniels.

Jets-Vikings: I am starting to believe in this Minnesota team as it’s the only team that hasn’t played a game with a 4QC attempt yet. Maybe that changes here, but when an old Aaron Rodgers is on the other side, I feel okay with trusting Minnesota to go to 5-0.

Ravens-Bengals: When Lamar Jackson is healthy, he usually beats the Bengals. Period. They’ve looked great with Derrick Henry running over everyone the last two weeks, but the Bengals have also perked up offensively. It should be a good game and I’m going Baltimore again.

Panthers-Bears: Are we trusting Chicago again? I think it’s a tight game and I’m on the Diontae Johnson props again.

Dolphins-Patriots: I’d pick Miami in Miami but give me the Patriots at home. Tyler Huntley should be better than Monday night, but that team is a mess right now and injuries are piling up too.

Bills-Texans: Big one here. I had the Texans winning it in my preseason picks and I’m sticking to it. I think C.J. Stroud uses all of his weapons and throws for over 300 yards in a close win.

Colts-Jaguars: It looks like Joe Flacco at QB, but there’s no Jonathan Taylor, and the Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014. It’s time to end the losing streak, and by that I mean Trevor Lawrence losing 9 straight starts. Something has to give here and I’m giving the Jags a win or else they’ll be ready to fire Doug Pederson by the end of the month.

Browns-Commanders: My Commanders look to go 4-1 and I hope they do for obvious reasons. But I do like an Amari Cooper TD to continue the trend of No. 1 WRs abusing that secondary. It’d also raise his draft stock.

Cardinals-49ers: Four straight blowouts of Arizona by the 49ers, and I think that continues here.

Raiders-Broncos: Speaking of revenge, do you know the Raiders are 8-0 against Denver since 2020? I think the streak continues here as Maxx Crosby returns to the defense, and I just don’t trust Bo Nix yet.

Packers-Rams: LaFleur gets the best of McVay again and hopefully Josh Jacobs finally finds the end zone.

Giants-Seahawks: An upset wouldn’t shock me with Seattle’s injured defense, but they need Malik Nabers for that. Seattle bounces back at home.

Cowboys-Steelers: I would pick the Cowboys if they had their pass rushers (or just Parsons), or if I trusted the offense beyond CeeDee. But I think the Steelers squeak out a 23-20 win. Just remember Justin Fields is 0-22 when the opponent scores 21+ points. But if you have Mike McCarthy in a close game, we know how that usually goes.

Saints-Chiefs: Screw it, give me the upset in the first game without Rashee Rice. The Saints in a 4QC win to end the KC winning streak.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 4

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Another week closer to the reality that this is the NFL season where Sam Darnold won MVP. It’d be weirder than Brian Sipe winning it in 1980. Get your bets in now. I did earlier this week at +2800.

On the bright side, I think passing yardage may have increased in Week 4 as many of the quarterbacks you can still trust seemed to throw for 200 or more yards this time. Well, just ignore Sunday night, the supposed Game of the Week. That one lost the plot after one Derrick Henry run.

But I kind of called it during the late window that a Buffalo dud was going to set up a very messy AFC race on what could be a pivotal day for the conference. The Chiefs probably lost Rashee Rice for the season, the Bills looked really bad in their opportunity to lay claim to being the best team in the league right now, and it looks like Houston might be the only hope of breaking things up in January from being a Chiefs-Ravens-Bills tilt that will come down to seeding.

As for the NFC, I don’t know at this point. Might as well throw in some futures bets on a Commanders vs. Vikings NFC Championship Game. Who the hell knows anymore?

We had nine games with a comeback opportunity so far this week. I would imagine one or both Monday night games can add to that total.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Ravens: Game of the Week Is Dud of the Week

This game was over after 250 seconds. If you’re a Buffalo fan, it should bring back all your worst fears that this team is simply never going to get over the hump as it’s currently constructed.

Sean McDermott is a defensive coach, but he’s not overly conversative like you’d expect. The Bills like to go for it on fourth down, but they are inconsistent about it. That’s why you’ll see McDermott flex his chest on a 4th-and-1 call with Allen at his own 39. But God forbid it’s 4th-and-2 at the 50. Then we’re going to punt it away and pin them deep. Then Derrick Henry takes off for an 87-yard touchdown on the first play and it’s basically game over there.

After going down 14-3 to Henry’s first receiving touchdown since 2019, the Bills had another 4th-and-1 at their own 39, and guess what they did this time? They punted. All the Ravens did was take up half the quarter to score another touchdown and make it 21-3.

The only reason you stuck with the second half is because you know the Ravens stink at holding big leads. They blew a 17-point lead to the Bills in 2022 in Baltimore, so there was some hope.

Sure enough, Josh Allen makes a crazy 50-yard bomb from the sideline, Lamar Jackson starts taking grounding penalties and sacks, and the Bills are suddenly driving in a 21-10 game.

Then they threw it all away for nothing. With Curtis Samuel taking the direct snap, they tried a trick play by throwing it back to Allen, but he never got the ball off as the Ravens were all over him, and it ended up being a fumble that nearly injured Allen.

Six plays later, Jackson was in the end zone and the Ravens were up 28-10, ready to never look back before winning 35-10. There was just no need for a trick play there as the Bills had them reeling, and they’re not built to have to resort to tricks like that. The Ravens are missing plenty of normal assignments on defense this year.

Just an embarrassing display of coaching and game management by the Bills all night. They almost never get blown out, but they did here, their worst loss since their 27-10 playoff rout at home at the hands of the 2022 Bengals.

So much for it being Buffalo’s year. Not that this one game says it can’t be, but it sure didn’t look like a favorable matchup for Buffalo on either side of the ball, and that’s rare you’d ever say that about the Bills against anyone in the NFL.

But if the Ravens can play like this, then they can beat anyone. I’m just wondering why they can’t do this in January when they try to turn Lamar into Dan Marino when he’s just never going to be that. At 0-2, they have gone fully into leaning on Henry, Lamar’s legs, and he’s not even throwing more than 18 passes a game. Guess what? It’s working and they’re scoring points. You can’t do it every single week, but this is how they should be playing.

They understand that in September. Let’s see if they understand it in January too.

Chiefs at Chargers: Push It Real Bad

Mark this one on the calendar as it may be the moment where the Chiefs blew their three-peat opportunity.

After skipping the obligatory fumble last week in Atlanta, the Chiefs were quick to bring it back in LA thanks to Carson Steele, who probably just blew his shot at replacing Isiah Pacheco as the lead back. But it’s one thing for the Chiefs to have the obligatory fumble. This season, they’ve added Patrick Mahomes throwing an obligatory braindead interception in the first half as he did it for the fourth game in a row.

I don’t get it at all, because he otherwise is usually protecting the ball well and making good decisions. But just once a game he’s completely losing it with an awful throw, and this one was arguably the worst dropback of his career given the damage it caused.

Mahomes tried to make a tackle on the defender and ended up taking out Rashee Rice’s knee in the process by accident. I’d expect to hear season-ending news on Monday for Rice after that hit. Just a brutal loss for the receiving corps as Rice clearly emerged as their new No. 1 target with Kelce about to turn 35 and looking slower.

Things just got so much harder as this game showed. At the very least, they were playing the Chargers, who don’t want to hear about big injuries as they have their own. Justin Herbert wasn’t 100% and couldn’t move well in this game, and that hurt their ability to score as they never did again after taking that 10-0 lead on short fields from the takeaways.

To their credit, Mahomes found rookie Xavier Worthy for a 54-yard touchdown bomb. If he can run a fuller route tree, they might be able to survive the loss of Rice on top of losing Hollywood Brown. But it’s going to put a lot of pressure on Kelce to deliver at a high level again, and they probably still need another wideout as Skyy Moore is Kadarius Toney quality. He’s a game destroyer.

But while I have my doubts about Worthy turning into an asset like Rice did last year, his final catch to ice the game on third down boosted my confidence. If he can become a full route runner, then maybe they’ll find a way to manage. But their three-peat chances took a major hit. I might even say the division would have been in danger had the Chargers not botched these last two weeks by playing Justin Herbert in Pittsburgh when they should have been resting him to get to this more important, winnable game.

But maybe the best news for the Chiefs after a brutal game was seeing how vulnerable Buffalo looked in Baltimore. Their revamped offense sure didn’t look threatening in that game once you realize they’re relying heavily on Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and rookie Keon Coleman in that passing game. No one looks to be running away with this AFC, and it looks like mostly the same old foes. Is Derrick Henry going to run wild like that in January? Not likely. Not every week at least.

So, the Chiefs still have that edge over their rivals. But the injuries are piling up with Hollywood Brown, Pacheco, and now a huge one in Rice, who looked so good to start the season. Maybe it’s karma given he probably should have been suspended this season instead of the NFL waiting so long.

It’s still a lousy development if you had an interest in the three-peat happening. Watching this team each week, it gets harder to imagine things ending well this season. But maybe the script writers are playing the long game and have a vision in mind. A lot can happen between now and the playoffs, and somehow the Chiefs are still 4-0 along with the Vikings.

Steelers at Colts: The Full Justin Fields Experience

I called this one back in March when the Steelers made the bold trades to get rid of Kenny Pickett and acquire Justin Fields.

“You could call him Kenny “OneDrive” Pickett because if he only needed to score one touchdown to win the game, he wasn’t bad at doing it. Meanwhile, Fields was a nightmare in games even if he just had to set up a field goal attempt in a 3-point game.”

Pickett needed to go, but if there was one thing he was good at, it was delivering on the final drive to win the game. He was 7-4 (.636) on game-winning drive opportunities, an elite record. But Fields was 3-16 (.158), and we have seen him fail repeatedly in those situations in Chicago.

In drives that start in the final 10:00 when his team just needs a field goal, Fields is 2-for-17 at delivering a successful field goal drive. He’s 3-for-17 if you’re going to credit him for setting up a 65-yard field goal miss in Pittsburgh in 2021. One of those wins was in a game against the 2022 Texans where he started with the ball in the red zone after a Davis Mills interception, so he didn’t even have to do anything for that one. The other success was in Minnesota last year in a 12-10 game after Fields fumbled on the previous drive. But he was given another chance in that one.

Fields was able to hide his flaws in Weeks 1-3 when the Steelers were allowing 8.7 points per game. But similar to last year, Shane Steichen’s Colts were taking it to this defense. T.J. Watt was a ghost against that strong offensive line, and the Steelers were possibly fortunate that Joe Flacco had to finish the game as they got away from the run and deep passes that were killing Pittsburgh early. But once again, Anthony Richardson was injured on a run. With a bad hip, they watched him try to run the ball again only to slide late, show he was favoring that hip, and he took a helmet-to-helmet hit in the process. I really am doubting this guy’s long-term future in this league. He just can’t stay healthy on runs despite wanting to do it frequently.

Anyways, the Steelers allowed 27 points to the Colts, so it was going to take a superhuman effort from Fields. He definitely made some plays, and George Pickens sold him on a brutal fumble, but Fields had his own terrible fumble that was a game changer in the second half. He also had issues with the snap once again, a problem that’s been persistent since the preseason.

But similar to Chicago, Fields ran for some scores and it was a 27-24 game with the ball in his hands. Then just like in Chicago, he screwed things up without even getting into range for a kick. This time it was a near-fumble on a snap that he wasn’t ready for. Fields took the blame for it. It’s hard to say if he was being a good teammate or if he legitimately was the main reason the play happened, but again, this keeps happening since preseason. Just figure it out.

Fields could not rescue the drive after that fumbled snap set up a 2nd-and-22. The only reason his fourth-down pass wasn’t intercepted was because the defender, who didn’t need a catch there, dropped it. Tale as old as time.

Fields is 0-22 when his team allows more than 20 points in his career. I said in the offseason that the Steelers would falter in the close games they’re constantly in if Fields had to deliver game-winning drives, especially in higher-scoring games like this one. It was all on display on Sunday in Indy.

That’s why I would start Russell Wilson as soon as possible. We know what we’re getting with Fields, and it’s just not good enough. At least with Wilson, we know what’s been possible in the past, and we need to see if he can still be that guy here.

Saints at Falcons: Not the Worst Weekend in Georgia Football History After All

While Alabama was up big on Georgia on Saturday night, I tweeted that Derek Carr was going to lead a fourth-quarter comeback against the Falcons on Sunday.

Well, they were a minute away from securing it. But Kirk Cousins got the 30-yard penalty he needed on defensive pass interference to set up Younghoe Koo for the 58-yard game-winning field goal in a 26-24 thriller.

But make no mistake about it, the Saints gave this game away. Rashid Shaheed muffed a punt he probably had no business trying to catch, and it was recovered in the end zone for a (rare) touchdown. Carr threw a pick-six, so the Atlanta offense never found the end zone in this one despite the 26-24 score.

Then I also don’t get New Orleans’ strategy. Down 23-17, you’re going to run the ball on 3rd-and-goal from the 5 with under 5:00 left? Yeah, I understand you’re going to go for it on fourth down, but you better have a hell of a run that gains real yards there to make it worth it. Instead, Alvin Kamara had no blocking and lost 2 yards, setting up 4th-and-7. You almost wonder if the field goal was the better choice at that point, and Carr threw incomplete for Shaheed.

But Kamara finished the next drive in the end zone after the defense forced the three-and-out. You could see the Saints were suddenly thinking about the clock again as Carr’s feeble quarterback sneak attempts felt like someone who was trying to burn clock instead of scoring. That’s why the 6-point lead is such a shitty state to be in both offensively and defensively these days. You don’t want to score too soon on offense, because you fear losing to the long-range field goal from one of these kickers today that seemingly take little time to set up.

One DPI flag, and it was a fair call, and the Falcons were already in business. Koo delivered the kick and now both teams are 2-2 in the NFC South. The Saints are still winless when trailing in the fourth quarter since Carr arrived there last year, but they really should have won these last two games. Guess that’s why Dennis Allen is 5-26 in such games in his career.

Up next for the Saints is a trip to Kansas City next Monday night. Sure to do wonders for their fourth-quarter woes against the team no one can seem to kill.

Eagles at Buccaneers: Baker’s Day

I’m really not sure why the Eagles were a small favorite in this one on the road without A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson. That clearly had an impact as Jalen Hurts took 6 sacks, threw for 158 yards, barely ran, and Saquon Barkley achieved very little outside of his 59-yard run.

You’re not going to keep up with Baker Mayfield and all of Tampa Bay’s weapons with Dallas Goedert as your No. 1 target. The Buccaneers rolled over the Eagles with ease early and it would have been 28-0 if not for an easy dropped touchdown. But to that point, this was as big of an ass kicking as any game this season.

The Eagles got back into it at 30-16, including a 2-point return on a blocked extra point. But everything went downhill after Lavonte David forced a strip-sack of Hurts in the red zone as turnovers continue to plague him.

The receiver injuries are a big deal, but the sloppy play has been there all season for the Eagles. It wouldn’t surprise me if they let Nick Sirianni go if he misses the playoffs this year.

Vikings at Packers: Is Sam Darnold Really Going to Sustain This Run?

You might think a game that was 28-0 and ended 31-29 would be a little more exciting, but it felt like this was the game that would not end even though it never really felt like Green Bay was going to pull off the comeback.

Sure, anything is possible with the Minnesota franchise, but a 28-point Green Bay comeback? I’m not buying that even if Jordan Love seems more about these games than Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers ever did. But he needs to stop putting them in a hole as this was not a strong return for him from his MCL injury. He threw 4 touchdowns, but he also threw 3 interceptions and had to throw it 54 times.

The Vikings continued to be very efficient on offense with Sam Darnold in building that 28-0 lead. He got into some turnover trouble with this one, and the Packers have been great at that defensively so far, but when it was 28-22, Darnold delivered right away with a great drive for a field goal to regain that 2-score cushion at 31-22. A drive like that tells me something is different for him this year as that probably would have been turnover No. 3 by him in the past on that drive, leading to a loss.

By the time Green Bay scored again, only 56 seconds remained, and you know how onside kicks go these days. So, it was never officially a comeback opportunity since the Packers never had the ball down one score.

That makes Minnesota the only team this season to not have any close games in the fourth quarter by that criteria. Didn’t I predict them to go 4-13? They’re already 4-0. This is going to be a disaster for my predictions, but I guess we’ll see if it’s sustained or not. But the Vikings have wins over the 49ers, Texans, and Packers in three straight weeks.

It’s impossible to admit they’re not playing very well right now. Even if it’s one of the hardest things to explain.

Broncos at Jets: Forget Everything I Said This Week About the Jets

Can we just ban games at MetLife Stadium? The Giants couldn’t score a touchdown there Thursday night, the Cowboys struggled too, and then these teams threatened to set offensive football back 80 years with some rain hampering things.

But what an embarrassing 10-9 loss for the Jets, who were a 7.5-point favorite. Bo Nix was on his way to some futility records as he couldn’t even complete a pass beyond the line of scrimmage in the first half.

Nix really went into halftime with a line of 7-of-15 for minus-7 yards, which shouldn’t even be possible. But he led a long touchdown drive in the third quarter, then the running game did all the work on the game-winning drive for a 47-yard field goal by Wil Lutz.

Aaron Rodgers had three shots to answer this, but the pass rush kept getting to him, and he’s just not able to escape like he used to. People are going to point to Greg Zuerlein missing the 50-yard field goal with 47 seconds left as the reason for the loss, but let’s be fair. The Jets caught a break when Lutz missed a 50-yard field goal with 1:27 left, or else it would have been 13-9, and Rodgers would have needed a touchdown on a day he just couldn’t finish a drive off for one.

Rodgers was 37-1 in starts where his team allowed fewer than 13 points before this 10-9 loss. The only loss was a 7-3 game against Detroit in 2010 that Rodgers left early with a concussion, so he never lost a game he finished when the team allowed fewer than 12 points. That’s exactly the kind of game the Jets brought him here to win with ease, but it just didn’t work out Sunday.

Under this coaching staff, it’s hard to believe this won’t be the last time they disappoint in a low-scoring loss this year. But losing to a rookie quarterback who threw for 60 yards on 25 attempts is just beyond the pale.

Rams at Bears: They Popped a Run

I guess I screwed up with this one. I thought maybe Jared Verse and company would rack up some sacks on Caleb Williams, and they ended up getting 3 as Williams had arguably his most complete game without any turnovers. Very few incompletions.

It helped that they finally gave him a running game. D’Andre Swift was averaging 2.0 yards per carry, and he ripped off a 36-yard touchdown run in this one as he finished with 93 yards on 16 carries. Amazing what some balance can do there, or literally anything better than 2.0 yards per carry.

Definitely a letdown for the Rams after the comeback against the 49ers last week. But Matthew Stafford was in position for another one here with the ball in his hands in a 24-18 game with 1:03 left. Granted, he had to go 92 yards, so it probably wasn’t happening. But it could have at least been dramatic. Instead, he instantly threw a pick under pressure and that was a wrap for the 1-3 Rams.

Commanders at Cardinals: Best Rookie QB Ever?

Ask me for the best rookie quarterback seasons ever, and I’d say Ben Roethlisberger sold me first on that title in 2004. Then I have always given Dak Prescott credit for doing it every week as a fourth-round pick for the 2016 Cowboys. I thought Deshaun Watson, back when I liked him, was on pace for the best rookie quarterback season before he tore his ACL in practice in 2017. Then C.J. Stroud did something special last year.

But Jayden Daniels is doing something truly special here with Washington, and that could land him the title of best rookie quarterback ever if he keeps this up. I’ll get more into the stats later this week when I do my QB rankings at 365Scores, but Daniels ran his streak to 16 straight scoring drives (kneeldowns excluded) in this game. That is as far as we know the longest streak ever by a quarterback.

Again, maybe the dynamic kickoff is helping here as more drives than ever start at the 30, and we saw a 15-drive scoring streak by Derek Carr to begin this 2024 season. But Daniels has a super high completion percentage and he’s stacking points in an offense that wasn’t expected to be this great under new coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who suddenly looks like a genius again.

But they flat out cooked Arizona with 7-of-9 drives ending in scores. Daniels threw his first pick in the NFL, but that’s fine. He’s only punted once in the last three games.

Similar to last week, Kyler Murray led an opening-game touchdown drive and then did very little the rest of the way in the 42-14 loss. This was despite James Conner rushing for 104 yards and Marvin Harrison Jr. catching another touchdown. I know tight end Trey McBride was out with a concussion, but Murray has enough weapons to score more than 14 points and throw for more than 142 yards against that bad Washington defense.

But what a surprising 3-1 start by the Commanders. They get Cleveland next week at home, so it might be 4-1 too.

Browns at Raiders: Sack Merchant Goes Down Again

It’s difficult because I truly believe Antonio Pierce is not cut out for this job with this particular team. But they have scrappily come up with 10-point comeback wins in games they really had no business winning. The Browns were up 10-0 early while the Raiders were missing their two best players, Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby.

But the Raiders were patient with the running game that finally paid off with some production. The only eyesore was Zamir White coughing up a fumble for a touchdown to start the fourth quarter and give the Browns a shot after they were down 20-10.

However, Cleveland missed the extra point and keeping it 20-16 proved to be huge as they could never get the ball in the end zone the rest of the way. Deshaun Watson had his chances, but even without facing Crosby, the sack merchant in him came out in the end and he took a sack to end the game on a 4th-and-3 at the Vegas 9 with 35 seconds left.

They could have just kicked the field goal for overtime there had they not missed the extra point to start the fourth quarter. Oh well.

Bengals at Panthers: Cincinnati Finally Gets a Win

No, the Panthers did not stack wins, but let’s not forget the defense stinks too and they traded Brian Burns to New York. It would have helped to have a pass rusher like that to go after Joe Burrow, who did not take a sack. But he did throw an awful pick in the fourth quarter that gave the Panthers some hope after falling behind 31-14 at one point.

Andy Dalton may not be a miracle maker, but he is clearly better than Bryce Young right now. Seeing the Panthers score 24 points in consecutive games is a good sign that Dave Canales will get his offense right eventually in Carolina.

Came up short in this one, but you have to like the fight of the underdog. They had the ball in a 31-24 game late before Dalton threw three incompletions in a row in a disappointing drive with 4:23 left. The Bengals were able to stick to the ground game and added a decisive field goal with 1:14 left in the 34-24 win, their first of the year.

Lower the temperature on the hot seat for Zac Taylor, but let’s not get comfortable. They have to play the Ravens next week, so 1-4 may be in their near future. If Dalton and Chuba Hubbard are doing this to your defense a week after Jayden Daniels and Brian Robinson got you bad, good luck with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.

Jaguars at Texans: My MVP Delivers

Trevor Lawrence hasn’t won a start since that big game in Houston last year when it looked like the Jaguars would repeat as AFC South champions. What a change-up there with Houston being the team favored to do that this year. This win will help even if it wasn’t a dominant response after last week’s ugly loss to the Vikings.

It looked like Lawrence might end the streak as the Jaguars were up 20-17 and driving for more when the fourth quarter started. I fully agree with running Lawrence on 4th-and-1 at the 1, but they just didn’t make it happen. Huge stop by Houston.

I think C.J. Stroud did a great job overcoming 12 penalties for 93 yards by Houston. That made things really hard in the fourth quarter when you’re facing 2nd-and-25, 3rd-and-18, and 3rd-and-20 because of these penalties on your linemen. There were a couple of big holds on Laremy Tunsil, who was hurt at one point in the game.

It wasn’t looking good when Houston had to punt with 3:51 left, but the Jaguars only burned 57 seconds off the clock thanks to a pair of incompletions by Lawrence. The Texans avoided any more penalties, and Stroud was able to drive 69 yards for the game-winning touchdown with 18 seconds left.

The Jaguars were very close to a safety on the final lateral-filled play, which would have hit the over and covered the spread for Houston. Bummer. I’ll have to check the air yards update, but it did continue the trend of Lawrence losing another game after he completed under 60% of his passes (18-for-33 after a good start).

But having a quarterback like Stroud is a huge advantage for Houston over much of the AFC. Someone you can actually trust with the game on the line. At least we think so. This is his fourth game-winning drive already, and the team is 5-2 in game-winning drive opportunities under coach DeMeco Ryans.

Patriots at 49ers: Finally, a Blowout in an Expected Blowout

The 49ers (-10.5) were our first double-digit spread of the season, my No. 1 pick this week, and they delivered with a 30-13 win that still left you wanting a bit more from the offense. They leaned on a great Fred Warner pick-six, a dominant pass rush against that poor line, and George Kittle made an unbelievable touchdown catch in his return game.

But not great play inside the 25-yard line by the 49ers on offense. It’s nothing to be worried about, and at least they seemed to get through this one healthy. That’s the most important thing right now.

Next week: Bucs-Falcons on Thursday night isn’t bad. Not sure I will get up that early for Jets-Vikings after the shitshow the Jets put on this week. Sleep is more important to me. The first Ravens-Bengals game of the year is a big one. Buffalo at Houston in the same 1:00 p.m. slot is interesting as that’s stacked for the AFC. The Sunday late-afternoon slate looks absolutely brutal. Consider this a trigger warning. Cowboys at Steelers for SNF is interesting; can go a lot of ways. Saints-Chiefs on Monday night. Again, can the team that can’t lose a close 4Q game actually lose one to the team who can’t come back in the 4Q anymore? Sounds like a regression opportunity.

NFL 2024 Week 4 Predictions: Everybody’s Hurt Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I highly doubt this is the first time I’ve used that title. But it’s another one of those weeks where it just seems like too many good players are injured and either won’t play or won’t be anywhere near 100%, which makes it harder to do predictions.

This Week’s Articles

NFL 2024 Week 4 Predictions

Those damn Cowboys couldn’t cover the 5.5-point spread in New York. Brandon Aubrey looks like the next great kicker, but his first miss from 50-plus was costly. Oh well.

I think it’d be so funny to see Andy Dalton drop the Bengals to 0-4, but I’m not trusting it that much with their WR injuries. I’m also starting to think a Zack Moss TD is my favorite play in that game. Didn’t Joe Mixon score like 5 touchdowns in 2022 against this team?

I like the Jets to win big over the Broncos. Run it up, Nathaniel Hackett. They beat the Broncos by 10 in Denver last year with Zach Wilson. Should be able to cover 7.5 at home with Aaron Rodgers.

A lot of injuries for the Saints but it sounds like Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave could both play? I’m cautiously picking the Saints. Maybe they finally end that 4th-quarter comeback drought in this one.

Trusting my preseason hype teams, Packers and Texans, to cover at home in division games. Let’s hope Jordan Love is looking like the late 2023 version Love.

Feels like a trap game for the Steelers, who lost 30-13 in Indy last year. Yeah, Anthony Richardson is messy, but his OL is great and that should at least make this a tougher game for T.J. Watt to dominate. Let’s not forget Justin Fields is 0-21 when his team allows more than 20 points. The Colts may not get there, but I expect the Steelers to allow more points this week.

Still going to trust Matthew Stafford in Chicago after last week’s effort to upset the 49ers. Just don’t trust the Chicago offense.

Sounds like the Eagles won’t have A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith. Tampa has more weapons for sure in this matchup, and I think they bounce back after ugly loss last week to Denver. Shouldn’t be as decisive as the wild card game, but a Tampa win.

Don’t believe in the Patriots at all this year. Calmly taking the 49ers to cover the first double-digit spread of the season after last week’s choke. Sounds like reinforcements are coming back this week on offense.

The Kliff Kingsbury revenge game is something I plan on doing a lot of SGPs for tomorrow. Kliff Kingsbury Revenge Game in Arizona. Jayden Daniels has led 14 straight scoring drives. Maybe a parlay again with him scoring 2 TDs and 2 for Marvin Harrison Jr.? Maybe split it with a TD for Jayden and one for Brian Robinson (or James Conner). I have high hopes for this game. Hope it doesn’t end 16-13.

The Chargers might be getting a gimpy Justin Herbert without his tackles and Derwin James. The Chiefs are favored by 7. That means a Harrison Butker GW FG. Possibly in OT too. But seriously, I had the Chargers winning this game in my preseason picks and I think that would be a good pick this week if not for these injuries. They should have sat Herbert last week.

Hate to see Cleveland win these days, but without Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams, I’m going to give the edge to the Browns. But keep in mind that Cleveland defense hasn’t travelled well. Could be some Minshew magic at work here.

Find the preview link above for Bills-Ravens from me. I’m going with Buffalo as I think they have a good read on what Lamar Jackson does, and Josh Allen is in a zone right now. The Baltimore defense is struggling, and I like the Bills to take this one.

Maybe Miami is the only team Will Levis looks clutch against. Going with Tyler Huntley should help the Miami offense, but I think the Titans pull one out for their first win.

Seattle has won the last two years in Detroit in epic shootouts. I think this one is lower scoring but Mike Macdonald’s defense is still the story as they get to Jared Goff and Geno Smith outplays him for a tight win. Could be a good one.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 3

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I don’t think I’m going to like this season very much. You know there are some shenanigans going on when the first 3-0 teams were the Steelers, Vikings, and Seahawks. None of those teams were favored to even make the playoffs this year.

The Chiefs got there too on Sunday night, but after winning their eighth one-score game during this 9-game winning streak, it doesn’t look like this will be anywhere close to the strongest Kansas City team yet. Might even be the complete opposite.

There are six teams who were in the playoffs last year, including both No. 1 seeds, that are sitting at 1-2: Dolphins, Ravens, Browns, Cowboys, Rams, and 49ers.

Big favorites continue to go down at alarming rates. On Sunday, the four teams who were favored by 6.5 points were 0-4 SU (Buccaneers, Browns, 49ers, and Raiders). There were 18 such losses all of last season and 14 in 2022. We’re already up to seven this season.

Things are just crazy right now, injuries are piling up for many teams, and it’s not like blown leads/comebacks are largely responsible for these results. There were only six games with a comeback opportunity in Week 3, and only two games had a fourth-quarter lead change.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

49ers at Rams: Game of the Week

I thought the Eagles had the worst blown lead in the fourth quarter by a team this season after what they did in each phase against the Falcons on Monday night. But the 49ers may have found a way to outdo it here.

First, Brock Purdy was fantastic in this game. He finished 22-of-30 for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns (all to Jauan Jennings), but that doesn’t account for 6 drops. Ronnie Bell should take a permanent seat on the bench with his Limas Sweed ass hands. Purdy even ran 10 times and looked as mobile as ever as he tried to get the job done for his offense in a game without Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel. His only real mistake was a strip-sack before halftime, but that was right after Trent Williams momentarily left the game with an injury, and it didn’t lead to any points for the Rams.

The short-yardage running game hurt them in the fourth quarter when Jordan Mason couldn’t convert a 3rd-and-short, causing the 49ers to settle for a field goal and 24-14 lead. Later, a holding penalty ruined a drive, but Jake Moody could have made a 55-yard field goal with 2:43 to effectively ice it as a 10-point game, but he missed it. I thought he gained some confidence last year with some big kicks in the playoffs, but this was a big miss in a season where everyone seems to be crushing it from deep.

Then the defense had its letdowns with Matthew Stafford, who didn’t have Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua, using Tutu Atwell for deep balls to quickly get in scoring range. A 50-yard pass to Atwell set up a Kyren Williams touchdown and it was 24-24 with 1:51 left.

Purdy again did his job on the next drive, but Bell had a horrible drop down the field that set up 3rd-and-10. The Rams forced a punt, and the special teams further contributed to the downfall with a 38-yard punt return by the Rams with 42 seconds left.

The 49ers somehow had three defensive penalties on one snap with the pass interference moving the ball halfway to the 25. You can basically run the clock down there, which the Rams did, and they kicked a 37-yard field goal with 0:02 seconds left to take a 27-24 lead. A shocking comeback and total failure by the 49ers in so many ways, and yet somehow still appropriate for what we’ve come to expect from a Kyle Shanahan team.

I must say the 49ers looked like they had something cooking on their lateral play to end things. Definitely one of the better attempts you’ll see at trying to go 70 yards in one play.

A loss would have buried the season for the Rams (1-2). This loss doesn’t bury the 49ers (1-2), but it could haunt them for seeding. Seattle getting off to a 3-0 start isn’t ideal either, but the teams will meet in Seattle on a Thursday night in Week 6 after the 49ers have some winnable home games with the Patriots and Cardinals.

But the 49ers absolutely wasted one of the best games Purdy will give them this year. The loss will cause others to ignore how well he did with all the injuries they had too. Just a rough day all around if you’re a 49ers fan.

Chiefs at Falcons: Old Hat

I think from 2018-22, the Kansas City Chiefs were the main attraction in the NFL. They played the most entertaining style of offense, and they were involved in the biggest and best games of this era. They were a spectacle to watch.

But the 2023-24 Chiefs? I can see why so many people have turned to hating them, and it’s not just sour grapes over losing big games to them. They’ve become annoying to watch in a Spygate-era Patriots way in that it seems like every game is close, they leave a lot of doubt on the field, and they seem like they still find a way to win these games.

It happened again Sunday night in Atlanta, and while the Chiefs (-3) still covered with the 22-17 win, it was the kind of game that will only fuel the doubters who want to see someone else win the Super Bowl this year.

For the third week in a row, Patrick Mahomes threw a braindead interception. This time it was in the end zone on a 17-play opening drive, so the over bettors were already pissed. The only explanation is Justin Simmons just has that Mahomes voodoo that Ty Law once had for Peyton Manning, because he did it to Mahomes again despite changing teams from Denver to Atlanta.

Fortunately, that was the only turnover the Chiefs had in this game as they couldn’t afford another. They even avoided the obligatory fumble for a change, and Mahomes did not take any sacks. I’m not sure what the snap counts were yet, but the Chiefs did start Wanya Morris at left tackle over rookie Kingsley Suamataia, who was benched in the fourth quarter last week.

However, Travis Kelce really is starting to look washed up as he had just 30 yards on 4 catches, and he hurt the team with a third-down drop in the fourth quarter when they tried to add to the small lead. Kelce is seeing more action in his commercials and new FX series than he does on the field these days.

You combine Kelce possibly falling off a cliff with the injuries to Hollywood Brown and running back Isiah Pacheco, and the Chiefs aren’t offering a whole lot on offense outside of Rashee Rice, who continues to look fantastic as the new No. 1 option. He had 12 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown, accounting for half of Mahomes’ 217 yards and the only gain longer than 17 yards for the offense on the night.

But the Chiefs keep trying to spread the wealth, get other people involved, and their short-yardage offense hasn’t been too impressive. For all the hype about their interior line, you’d think they would do a better job of just pounding it in there.

But the back-to-back three-and-out drives in the fourth quarter do look like an offense that just isn’t what it used to be. Kelce would have held onto that ball in the past. On a late 3rd-and-2, Mahomes looked like he had multiple options on crossing routes, but he chose Xavier Worthy, and the rookie just stopped running on the play to cause an ugly incompletion with 2:26 left. I don’t think JuJu would have done that two years ago, and I know Sammy Watkins wouldn’t have back in the day.

The offense kept giving Atlanta chances to answer with a touchdown the way Kirk Cousins delivered Monday night in Philadelphia. But despite getting three chances in the fourth quarter, Cousins couldn’t get the job done as the Falcons dealt with more pressure from Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, and some injured offensive linemen made it tougher as does Cousins’ lack of mobility. There was a 3rd-and-2 “scramble” in the game where any young, mobile quarterback would have picked it up, but that’s just not happening for Cousins at this stage of his career. But that play was a good example of why the stationary pocket passer is such a dying breed in the NFL.

The referees didn’t help Atlanta much either. Yep, the officials were back in the spotlight at the end of a Kansas City game, and it was more appropriate this time compared to last week against the Bengals. Down 22-17 with just over 4:00 left, Cousins tried to find tight end Kyle Pitts in the end zone, and the Chiefs got away with some obvious pass interference. No flag.

He arrived early, he hugged Pitts, and he didn’t try to play the ball. That should have been an easy call to make. Then on fourth down, I don’t think that one was interference, but some of course will say that because it’s the Chiefs and this is the weekly thing we do now. But again, that comes back to never blowing teams out and leaving this type of doubt.

Then when the Falcons got the ball back with 2:26 left, you saw the make-up calls in full effect from the refs. The Falcons got a phantom DPI flag on Trent McDuffie for 11 yards. Then there was a horse collar tackle penalty, which looked legitimate enough, and that was another 15 yards. So, the calls most certainly don’t always go to Kansas City’s benefit.

But that horse collar was the last time the Falcons moved the chains. I think they got caught up playing the clock with Mahomes on the other side, they wanted to score late as possible, and they forgot to call good plays that make use of Cousins’ abilities. They brought in Tyler Allgeier for a big 3rd-and-1 run, and the Chiefs stopped him for no gain. Neither team wanting to run the QB sneak is a problem in this situation.

The Falcons then tried another 4th-and-1 run with Bijan Robinson, but he was stuffed for a 3-yard loss with 51 seconds left. Ballgame. That’s four plays in a row where the Falcons didn’t bother to let Cousins throw anything more than a horizontal pass.

Mahomes then did a smart move on the first down by waiting several seconds before he finally took a knee. The other knees were much quicker, and he nearly injured himself on one, but he timed it just right to where the Chiefs didn’t have to punt the ball back.

The Chiefs have now won 9 straight games by a combined 54 points, an average margin of victory of 6.0 points per game. That’s the tiniest margin of victory among the 119 teams in NFL history who had a winning streak of at least 9 games.

It’s not like this is uncharted territory for the Chiefs. In 2020, they tied the NFL record with 7 straight wins by 1-to-8 points. They also won 10 games in a row that year by an average of just 8.9 points per game. Only the 1999 Colts with Peyton Manning (8.7) had a lower margin of victory for a double-digit game winning streak.

The Chiefs can take that record next if they beat the Chargers next week by a slim margin. That’s usually what they do to that team.

It’s usually what they do to everyone these days. But that run in 2020 with the close wins was answered with some playoff blowouts, including their 31-9 loss in Super Bowl 55. It also led to a 3-4 start in 2021 during some of the worst losses of the Mahomes era like 38-20 to Buffalo and 27-3 in Tennessee.

So, you do wonder if this team will hit some regression to the mean and start losing these close games or losing by bigger margins during this three-peat attempt. We have always talked about the Chiefs in the context of an elite offense, or in last year’s case, it was an elite defense. Through three games this year, they don’t particularly look elite on either side of the ball. In fact, they look a bit ordinary.

Still 3-0, but not the same spectacle as 2018-22. No longer must-see TV unless you’re into watching reruns of mediocre episodes of your favorite shows. Alas, with the way the rest of the league is playing to start this season, it still might be enough to make history in the end.

Ravens at Cowboys: Almost a Collapse

Is this what every big game in Jerry World is going to look like for Dallas now? The opponent piles up big plays and touchdowns, forcing Dak Prescott to just keep throwing for a ton of volume with no real shot at winning the game. It’s the third time in a row at home with the Packers in the playoffs, the Saints last week, and now the Ravens in this 28-25 final that was somehow a bigger blowout than that suggests, and still really close of a collapse for the Ravens.

Oh yes, I don’t think a win here absolves Baltimore that much for an 0-2 start. This game still reinforced some issues they have with holding leads as they lead the NFL in blown leads of multiple possessions since 2021. The Cowboys cut a 28-6 deficit into 28-25 and were just unfortunate that the defense couldn’t get them the ball back one more time.

The Ravens were explosive with big plays on the ground with Derrick Henry and through the air with Lamar Jackson completing 12 passes for 182 yards. But salting the game away was poorly done, Justin Tucker missed another easy field goal on a day where his new GOAT competition Brandon Aubrey nailed a 65-yard field goal, and you still question if the Ravens would ever dare use this strategy in January with 15 passes to 45 runs.

They absolutely should as I argued this offseason. But they have this obsession with turning Jackson into the passer he’s not and throwing the ball much more in those games when he’s clearly at his most comfortable in a game like this where he threw 15 passes and ran 14 times.

Jackson is now 21-1 against NFC opponents, because they just don’t know him the way his AFC foes (Chiefs, Steelers, Bills, etc.) do. It’s a unique challenge, and I’m not surprised the Cowboys failed it.

But it did get a little too close for comfort at the end there, and I’m not sure how Baltimore keeps letting this happen under John Harbaugh.

Chargers at Steelers: Felt More Like Ravens vs. Steelers

In 2011, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers faced Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers with Ben Roethlisberger struggling through a high-ankle sprain. Pittsburgh was a 3-point underdog, and Ben struggled with 3 interceptions in a 20-3 loss.

Fast forward to 2024, the second career meeting between Tomlin and Harbaugh, and the tables were turned. This time it was Justin Herbert coming in as a 3-point underdog on a high-ankle sprain against an elite defense. He ended up losing 20-10 and didn’t even finish the game.

It’s not a good formula for success, but incredibly, these quarterbacks started a combined 19-for-19 in this game, the best in any game since 1991. It was a ton of short stuff with Fields being safe and Herbert keeping that leg safe for as long as he could. Neither running game was getting it done against these tough defenses.

But in a 10-10 game in the third quarter, the floodgates opened up on the Chargers. Herbert tried to capitalize on Fields’ first turnover of the year after Bud Dupree came down with an interception that was tipped around several players. But Herbert was sacked, and he hurt himself on that one and couldn’t return to the game.

Keep in mind the Chargers already lost edge rusher Joey Bosa in this game. They’d later lose both offensive tackles (Rashawn Slater and rookie Joe Alt) as well. T.J. Watt was getting shut out by Alt, but once those floodgates opened in the third, the Chargers couldn’t stop it. Taylor Heinicke tried to finish the game for Herbert, but he took 3 sacks on 5 dropbacks (!) as the Steelers allowed minus-5 yards of offense in the entire second half.

Fields technically gets credit for a game-winning drive in this one to break the 10-10 tie early with Chris Boswell’s 38-yard field goal, but the Chargers sure did help that along with three penalties for 34 yards on third downs alone to extend the drive.

My hopes of seeing how Fields would perform in a game where a quarterback like Herbert could force him to score in the fourth quarter to win it were dashed when Herbert couldn’t go anymore. Frankly, they probably made a huge mistake in playing him at all this week since this was always a high possibility, and they have the Chiefs up next, a much more important divisional game with the Chiefs looking vulnerable too.

But Fields also put the game away with a 55-yard touchdown pass over the middle to Calvin Ausitn, who showed off his speed. It was the best game Fields played this year by far, and one of the best wins of his career with ease.

I’m still on board with thinking Russell Wilson should get a chance to start in this offense too, but the Steelers are seeing more of Fields each week and he is getting better. The points still aren’t really there, but it hasn’t mattered when you’re giving up 28 points in 3 games.

Eagles at Saints: Let Them Off the Hook

The dumbest team to win this week was definitely Philadelphia. It was evident early on that this was not going to be a high-scoring week for the Saints like the last few have been. Even after starting the game with a field goal, the Saints didn’t have a drive that gained more than 13 yards until the fourth quarter.

Incredibly, this game was still a 3-0 Saints lead going into the fourth quarter despite a total near 50. This is also because the Eagles kept passing up makeable field goals and failing on fourth down. Jalen Hurts had a frustrating game as he completed most of his passes for 311 yards, but he also had multiple turnovers, 4th-down failures, and took 4 sacks.

But it was a game without A.J. Brown that soon became a game without DeVonta Smith too after a dirty-looking hit, and Lane Johnson was also knocked out at right tackle.

But the Eagles did have Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 147 yards and two touchdowns. They also had tight end Dallas Goedert, who had a monster game with 10 catches for 170 yards. Goedert made the critical play on a 3rd-and-16 on the game-winning drive when he got free for 61 yards.

You had three Saints defenders run into each other on the play. A natural pick by the Eagles neutralized the first one, but then veteran corner Marshon Lattimore (No. 23) ran right into his teammate and that’s why Goedert was so wide open. It was like watching the early and mid-2010s Saints on defense.

The Saints are the only NFL team not to win a game after trailing in the fourth quarter since 2023. That was supposed to be a strength of bringing Derek Carr to New Orleans. He had a go-ahead touchdown pass to Chris Olave in this one with 2:03 left, but the Saints missed the crucial 2-point conversion that would have made it 15-7. Instead, the Eagles got the 8 points with Barkley scoring both with 1:01 left.

Carr still had time and a timeout to force overtime with a field goal, but similar to Hurts against Atlanta last week, he took a risk quickly and was intercepted to end the game at 15-12. After leading 15 straight scoring drives to begin 2024, Carr couldn’t even get the team to 15 points in this one.

It was Week 3 last year in Green Bay when the Saints blew a 17-0 lead and missed a clutch field goal that really destroyed their playoff hopes in the end. Let’s hope this game doesn’t set them on a similar path as this was a huge outcome in the NFC to get the Eagles to 2-1 while those teams like Dallas and San Francisco keep losing.

Texans at Vikings: Wiped the Flores with My MVP’s Offense

I guess all that’s left is for the Vikings to start 4-0 by beating up my Super Bowl pick (Packers) next week too. They already won three games in a row against teams I thought would beat them, especially the 49ers and Texans, and they’re only getting stronger after taking down Houston 34-7.

C.J. Stroud is usually very hard to intercept, but he had a pair in this game, he only led one touchdown drive, and he also lost 42 yards on 4 sacks. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores had them flustered, and I don’t think it would have made any difference if running back Joe Mixon was active.

Sam Darnold didn’t have all the big plays this week, but he was smart with the ball, effective, and he threw 4 touchdowns out of it. He’s holding the ball and still making good decisions. We’ll just have to see if he continues it into October or if he starts seeing ghosts again.

But between the schedule looking legit and the team controlling these games on their way to 3-0, I’m dumbfounded by this start. Just never seemed logical that a team that lost Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter would get better on both sides of the ball. Not to mention WR2 Jordan Addison has been out with an injury, and tight end T.J. Hockenson has yet to even play in 2024.

They could theoretically get better. But I’m still not ready to crown the Vikings as the new flash in the pan in the NFC. Probably should get on that Kevin O’Connell for Coach of the Year campaign though.

Broncos at Buccaneers: Not “Bo Picks” This Week

This felt like a trap game to me, so the only bet I had on it was for Bo Nix to throw a pick. He’s had multiple picks in both games, and you had to figure the Bucs would send some heat and get him to mess up in a game where he should have needed to score a fair amount to win.

But man, that was way off. The 0-2 Broncos went across country to pants the 2-0 Buccaneers in their building in a 26-7 final. Nix was in control early, he avoided the turnovers and sacks, and he may have led the Broncos in rushing once again if not for a backup (Badie) breaking a 43-yard run.

That’s an encouraging start. As for the Buccaneers, so much for the Baker Mayfield hype. After Aidan Hutchinson had 4.5 sacks of Mayfield for Detroit last week, Mayfield went down 7 times in this one as the Bucs are struggling up front. Mayfield completed 25 passes but for only 163 yards, which ties Joe Montana for the fewest yards ever in a game with exactly 25 completions. A little weird it came in a game against Denver as we just saw Denver set that record for the fewest yards in games with 26 completions (Nix in Week 1) and 27 completions (Russell Wilson in Week 1, 2023).

Maybe it’s just a Denver thing and it goes both ways. But definitely an upset I wasn’t ready for as the Bucs were just never a threat the whole game.

Bears at Colts: Comically Inept

I know Caleb Williams (2) and Anthony Richardson (6) came into this game with 8 starts between them as the youngest quarterbacks in the NFL. But I still found myself during the third quarter thinking of how this would have been Jay Cutler vs. Andrew Luck a decade ago, and that was just more interesting to me. Maybe these two are the future, but right now, they are raw as hell and I question how much help they’re getting from their play callers.

Both had multiple completions of 40-plus yards for the highlight tapes, but both missed easy throws and had multiple interceptions too. It’s a good thing for Richardson that Jonathan Taylor rushed for 110 yards and two scores to really put the game away. Williams ended up throwing the ball 52 times and gained 363 yards, but some of those yards were hollow like his Hail Mary completion to D.J. Moore before halftime that gained 44 yards but was stopped at the 1-yard line.

But the Bears again barely averaged 2.0 yards per carry, proving that the offensive line is dog shit. The Colts couldn’t stop the run at all in Weeks 1-2, but they had few problems in this one. Chicago’s play-calling in the red zone was also horrible, including a ridiculous sequence in the first half where they came away with no points.

Good on Williams to survive a game with this many throws and keep the sacks down to 4, but he’ll still have to do better than that. Still, I’m not sure Richardson is even capable of a game like this in the NFL. He’s throwing for 40 yards or giving you nothing with his arm right now.

Good on the Colts to see Laiatu Latu come up with a strip-sack in a big moment in the fourth quarter when Williams had the ball in a 14-9 game.

That’s why you draft someone like Latu the way Indy did in this offensive-driven class.

Lions at Cardinals: The Shootout That Wasn’t

I was really hoping for a shootout in this one, and it looked promising when both offenses marched right down the field for touchdowns. But there was very little after that as Kyler Murray struggled to throw for 100 yards until late in the second half when the Cardinals were still desperately down 20-10.

It could have been closer as the refs had a costly mistake at the 2-minute warning in the first half when it sure looked like the Cardinals produced a defensive return touchdown. But they tried to say the 2:00 warning hit, but it appeared the ball was snapped at 2:01. Huge turnaround there as the Lions turned that drive into a touchdown on a nifty designed lateral play from Amon-Ra St. Brown to Jahmyr Gibbs.

The Lions never scored the rest of the way, and it was just a matter of holding on as the Cardinals couldn’t run with James Conner, Trey McBride suffered a concussion, and Murray was floating a lot of bad passes to Marvin Harrison Jr. Just not an efficient offensive performance at all after the first two weeks were so good.

The Detroit defense looks improved this year, but it was still up to the offense to run out the clock in a 20-13 game. Goff found St. Brown on a third-and-12, then he iced the game with an 8-yard scramble.

But not many offensive fireworks to see here – keeping up the 2024 brand for the league.

Packers at Titans: Malik Willis Is Better Than Will Levis?

The revenge game is usually a tired narrative, but this time it really worked out. Not that Malik Willis should feel like the Titans did him dirty. He really struggled when he was with them, but in playing for Green Bay these last two weeks, he has done an incredible job of managing the game.

This week was even better than last as Willis passed for a career-high 202 yards on just 19 throws, and he ran for 73 yards and a touchdown. A true dual-threat performance. He also did it this week with much less help from his running backs on the ground unlike last week against the Colts.

To make things sweeter for Willis, he thrived while Will Levis continues to show that his version of “Big Dick Energy” is to play like there’s zero consequences for your actions just because you’re packing a hammer. Levis took 8 sacks and had 3 more turnovers as the Packers are getting splash plays galore to start this season under their new defensive coordinator.

With the hope that Jordan Love is close to returning, my Super Bowl pick of Green Bay is still looking decent. They know they have a viable backup option in a pinch with Willis, and we’ll see a return to more passing when Love gets back. The defense in the meantime just needs to keep this up as they’ve been very impressive in creating negative plays.

Giants at Browns: Please, Call More Plays Where Deshaun Watson Gets Sacked

Okay, the spread never should have been Browns -6.5, because this team is just not that good with the albatross that is Deshaun Watson at quarterback. He’s actually worse than Daniel Jones right now, and he was certainly worse in this game as he took a whopping 8 sacks.

The Giants fumbled the opening kickoff and gave up a short field touchdown to the Browns, but that Cleveland offense did almost nothing the entire rest of the game. Those fumbles were also the only thing keeping this from being a New York blowout as Danny Dimes did actually deliver on his end. He threw two touchdowns to rookie Malik Nabers, who looks very much like the real deal, and he cut down on sacks and turnovers in a big way this week.

I actually feel bad for Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski as he knows he is likely stuck for Watson for a couple more years. That’s assuming it doesn’t cost him his job. I wouldn’t blame him if he purposely called plays with minimal protection and exposed Watson to more hits in the hopes that he gets injured, and they can keep him off the field that way. The guy was literally just accused of rape once again in a new lawsuit. He doesn’t get any benefit of the doubt, and I don’t know how this team will get through a season if they have to keep playing him when Jameis Winston would obviously outperform him.

Dolphins at Seahawks: Not the Most Unlikely 3-0 Start

Sure, most people probably didn’t see the Seahawks starting 3-0 this year. But with the schedule of quarterbacks, it was very reasonable. They’ve drawn Bo Nix in his rookie debut, a New England passing game that doesn’t want to exist with Jacoby Brissett, and then a break this week with Skylar Thompson starting for an injured Tua Tagovailoa (concussion).

We know Geno Smith and his weapons are good enough to go 9-8. Mike Macdonald just had to improve the defense, and who knows. But we won’t really start to see the defense tested until Week 4 against Detroit.

But this game, it was a 24-3 laugher as the Dolphins were literally showing their ass on the field.

Boy, that stunk. Miami was 1-of-12 on third down, and Thompson took 5 sacks before leaving the game with an injury. It could be Tim Boyle time in Miami next week, or maybe Tyler Huntley who just signed. At what point do we ask if Mike McDaniel and his staff are doing something wrong with their quarterbacks if they’re this brittle that you have to start three in three games? I thought that was a historic outlier when they did it in 2022, but it might happen again here.

All the speed in the world doesn’t mean a damn thing with the wrong player at quarterback.

Panthers at Raiders: Bryce Young Was the Problem After All

Guess I should have bet the house on Andy Dalton after all. He was my No. 1 prop pick this week, I picked the Panthers (+6.5) to win outright, but even then I never expected this 36-22 outcome that completely disproves the idea that Bryce Young had no protection or weapons in Carolina.

The problem was the shortcomings of the quarterback. Similar to last year when Dalton started a game in place of Young for the Panthers, he threw for over 300 yards. But this time he did it much more efficiently, and before you say it was just the Raiders, check again how Maxx Crosby and company fared against Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson to start this season.

Dalton is now the only quarterback this season to throw for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in a game. Crazy, right? He got a career game out of Diontae Johnson with 122 yards and a touchdown. Even the running game showed up as Chuba Hubbard rushed for 114 yards.

The Panthers finally ended their 20-game streak of never taking a snap with a fourth-quarter lead. I don’t think Dalton can go too far with this team, but for one game against the Raiders, he was electric. About time we watch a veteran with more than a decade of experience just sling it on these defenses.

There’s almost none of that in the NFL right now, so I fully support Dalton starting more games while Young “sits and learns” from it all. But this game probably did nuke his trade value even more.

Next week: Cowboys-Giants on TNF? Oh, it’s really over for Dallas if they’re going to lose to Danny Dimes next. Saints-Falcons has some importance in the NFC South, Andy Dalton can stack wins against the Bengals, the Steelers can harass Anthony Richardson to start 4-0, the Vikings-Packers game could somehow be the Game of the Week if Jordan Love returns, and let’s just hope Justin Herbert can return for the Kansas City game. Bills-Ravens a big one on Sunday night I get to preview later this week. Another Monday night doubleheader (not a fan) too, and Seahawks-Lions definitely more interesting than Titans-Dolphins (no one cares).

NFL 2024 Week 3 Predictions: “Ravens Can’t Go 0-3, Can They?” Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I’m still up at 6 AM since I did my WNBA 2024 Playoff Preview, something I’d never imagined I would be doing, but here we are. It’s crazy to think they’re going to start the playoffs on an NFL Sunday, one that could be very good too.

I always enjoy Week 3 as some teams have given us wildly different data points in the first two games, and we have to figure out which one to believe in more. But the game I’m really interested in is Cowboys vs. Ravens as both teams could really use it after last week, but the Ravens need it even more to avoid starting 0-3.

Since 2002, 103 teams have started 0-3 and only the 2018 Texans (11-5) won more than 9 games and made the playoffs. One out of 103. That’s also 0-for-16 since the playoff expansion in 2020 and 0-for-10 since the 17th game was added in 2021. The Ravens better show up for that one after coming up short these first two weeks.

But can you trust anything this season with the way big-name injuries are already piling up? Quarterback injuries have me so confused on who to pick in GB-TEN and LAC-PIT this weekend. But the number of top receiving targets who have already been injured this season is crazy and not helping the offensive drought.

But hey, at least a 6-point favorite covered for the first time all season on Thursday night.

This Week’s Articles:

NFL 2024 Week 3 Predictions

The Jets looked very good on Thursday night. Before that game, favorites of 5.5+ points were 0-7-2 ATS this year. Let’s see if the big favorites can dominate this weekend.

Last week, I hedged on 6 games where I picked a different spread winner from the moneyline winner. That paid off as I was 6-0 ATS on those games. Not repeating that with this slate as I only did it twice, and that’s only because of an injury in one game.

I’m counting on the Browns to shit all over Daniel Jones. The Browns don’t have a takeaway yet this season, so let’s get some regression there.

I’m trusting Anthony Richardson to finally win a game he plays the majority of snaps in for the Colts. He’s 0-4 so far, but I’m banking on the Chicago offensive line being unable to give them a good running game against that poor run defense of the Colts.

Line keeps creeping to Minnesota, but I don’t care. Still trusting my Texans and Stroud this week.

Love the Saints to keep scoring a lot and I don’t think the Eagles keep up without A.J. Brown.

I really hope Justin Herbert can play in Pittsburgh, because I want to see what happens when a quarterback who can score points and actually put heat on Justin Fields to do anything in the fourth quarter. He’s had it easy these two games. But with Herbert on a high-ankle sprain, the Steelers might get a big break if he can’t move well. But Joe Alt is going to have his hands full with T.J. Watt. I’ll be watching this one closely.

Expecting Tampa Bay to make things miserable for Bo Nix again.

GB-TEN is the other annoying QB injury game this week. Is Jordan Love playing or not? I’m not exactly feeling a Malik Willis Revenge Game, but the Packers have been forcing turnovers, and Will Levis seems willing to try new creative ways to cough them up. I cautiously take the Packers here.

Going upset with Carolina, though really I think Andy Dalton’s passing overs and the game going over 40 (both teams score 20+) are the best bets there. Might be an actual passing fest between Dalton and Minshew as neither team can run. But look for Dalton to immediately improve the passing game after Bryce Young was benched. Not entirely sure why I’m taking them to win too but I do like +6.5 for the spread.

I don’t believe in Skylar Thompson, so it’s a chance for Mike Macdonald’s defense to eat up at home. Seahawks by 5+ I hope.

Not liking what I’m seeing out of Detroit so far, and that Arizona offense is fun as hell. Upset pick there but it should be a good game. Tight one in the 4Q. Possibly OT.

It’s not like we haven’t seen quarterbacks go into Dallas and light them up. This is on Lamar Jackson to play well. The season is almost teetering early here at 0-2. Something still feels off with the Dallas offense as they lost Tony Pollard and TE Jake Ferguson was injured in Week 1. Not much that’s reliable outside of CeeDee Lamb.

Is anyone not hurt in 49ers-Rams? Meh, Rams already look cooked with these injuries. Just give me the 49ers.

Preview link above for Chiefs-Falcons. Can be a good one. I think Mahomes throws a lot more this week without Pacheco.

Don’t like the way the Jaguars are playing this year. Bills seem to be pretty strong and can win in a variety of ways right now. More interested in the later game.

Did a preview on that one too in Cincy. I think a healthy Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase should lead to Burrow’s best game this year against a terrible defense. But I’m still trusting the Commanders to cover that big of a spread. Shrink the game with long drives again. Avoid those pesky turnovers the Bengals are usually good at getting.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 2

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The season where Derek Carr turned into 2007 Tom Brady and held off Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield for the MVP nearly broke me.

I’m trying to keep the big picture in mind for the 2024 NFL season, but after an upset-heavy Sunday where a lot of offenses struggled again, I’m skeptical about what’s to come. This could be a season like 2021 where no one is truly great, and you end up with a Super Bowl between No. 4 seeds.

Though, it probably won’t be the Bengals vs. Rams again as both teams are 0-2 and not looking great. But even the Ravens are 0-2, easily the biggest surprise in that group as you had to think a home game with the Raiders was a given, right?

But nothing is a lock. In fact, the three biggest favorites by the point spread are 0-3 this season. Those were all favorites of 7.5 points or more, including the Bengals last week against New England. Teams favored by that much in Weeks 1-2 were 30-1 SU since 2018. The only other seasons in the 16-game era where three favorites lost this quickly were 1978 and 2003. Those seasons still finished with a traditional Super Bowl rematch (Steelers vs. Cowboys) and the Patriots were in another one (albeit against Jake Delhomme).

Get your Chiefs vs. Saints Super Bowl LIX futures in now? Eh, long way to go, but it was a wake-up call day for a lot of teams. Following 10 games in the early window was insane too. The NFL should really rethink that as the 3-game late slate is not good enough.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bengals at Chiefs: Game of the Week

When Joe Burrow says the Bengals are built specifically to beat the Chiefs, I wonder what he means exactly. On the offensive side of the ball, I don’t really see it. At least not with the current makeup of the Bengals without Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, and with Tee Higgins injured.

But Sunday went against type for the Bengals as they used their tight ends the most they ever have in a game with Burrow, copying some elements of how the Ravens had success with Isaiah Likely in Week 1 using multiple tight ends. When Mike Gesicki (91) and Drew Sample (28) are more than tripling Ja’Marr Chase in (35) in receiving yards, something’s up.

It almost worked out too, but Burrow did not hold up his end of the bargain. Much like in the two AFC Championship Games these teams played, he had a bad turnover in the fourth quarter. But this time it was a strip-sack returned for a touchdown while the Bengals led 22-17. That was huge with the Chiefs struggling to stay ahead of the Bengals in this game.

One could argue the Bengals bring out the worst in the Kansas City offense. In this game, they were able to hold Patrick Mahomes to 151 passing yards, the first time he’s ever been under 166 yards in a game he completed. He only threw it 25 times, but they also got two interceptions, including a brilliant one-handed catch late in the third quarter. Throw in the obligatory fumble from the Chiefs, and the Bengals were up 3-0 in turnovers with the ball before Burrow’s massive fumble.

But if we can back up, why did the Bengals not go for two on a touchdown that made it 22-17 with minutes left in the third? They should have tried to make it 24-17. But Evan McPherson missed the extra point, and that set us down a path that ultimately led to the Chiefs escaping with a 26-25 win. Things would have been different at 24-17. The fumble would only have tied the game, and so would a late field goal by the Chiefs as overtime would have been a possibility.

Going for the extra point was the first mistake, Burrow’s fumble was the second, and the third came on the next drive when Chase lost his cool and picked up a 15-yard flag from the refs. Instead of a 3rd-and-7, the Bengals faced a 3rd-and-22. They were able to salvage that drive for a field goal attempt, and McPherson redeemed himself with a 53-yard field goal to give the Bengals a 25-23 lead.

The Chiefs have a real problem right now with rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia being outmatched by an edge rusher on par with Trey Hendrickson. After Mahomes was sacked, the rookie tackle was also flagged for a hold that negated a 41-yard play to Travis Kelce, who only finished the game with a 5-yard swing catch.

Running out the final 6:57 would have been tough, but the Bengals were doing well until Burrow took another third-down sack and the team had to punt. The Chiefs had 2:35 to get a field goal, but it really felt like they came out of the two-minute warning with a lazy approach as if they weren’t down and this was really important.

A 1-yard run, a nonchalant throwaway, and just like that it was 3rd-and-9 where pressure forced a short throw to bring up 4th-and-6. Then the game got a little goofy. Mahomes made what should have been another game-winning type of play, finding Rashee Rice for 21 yards to the Cincinnati 34. Bang, there’s field goal range in the final 50 seconds with the Bengals down to one timeout.

But a lineman (not Kingsley) was flagged for illegal hands to the face, and it’s hard to say the call was anything but correct. Shades of 2023, the Chiefs were shooting themselves in the foot and had to convert a 4th-and-16. Mahomes threw deep for Rice, but it bounced incomplete off the defensive back’s head only for a flag to come in for pass interference on Daijahn Anthony, a 7th-round rookie who played 2 defensive snaps last week, and somehow he found himself defending the Chiefs’ best receiver on 4th-and-ballgame.

You’ve seen it, I’m sure. Was it not textbook pass interference?

You might get some leeway on defense in a Hail Mary situation, but this was not a Hail Mary throw. It was to a spot where Rice or Anthony could catch it, and Anthony clearly arrived early and tried to play the ball through the receiver by making contact high and to the head. I think they actually might let that one go if he jumped straight up with Rice, but he leaned into him too much and that’s a penalty.

Every little penalty in a Chiefs game turns into this big controversy now, but I see two penalties on crucial fourth-down plays, and both were correct. Had the first one not been called, the Chiefs are running the ball a couple of times and kicking a field goal from the same distance or even shorter than they ultimately did. You can’t just harp on the 4th-and-16 and ignore that the Bengals were fortunate they got a 4th-and-6 call that negated a conversion.

The Chiefs didn’t make it any easier on Harrison Butker, but from 51 yards out, he was money right down the middle again for the 26-25 escape to drop the Bengals to 0-2.

The prospects of the 2024 Chiefs fielding their strongest team yet are not looking great. They’re 2-0 against arguably two of their main AFC rivals, but is that saying a lot right now? New England beat Cincy and the Raiders just beat the Ravens.

I don’t doubt the Chiefs won’t be the toughest out for anyone in January, but you combine a Hollywood Brown injury that will keep him out of the regular season with this very unproductive Kelce start and add in a Pacheco injury at the end of this game, and things aren’t looking the greatest.

But I think if you’re just being honest as a Chiefs fan, you don’t want to see this Cincinnati team again this season. They just have that way of bringing out the worst with this offense.

Raiders at Ravens: Upset of the Year

In Week 3 last season, the Ravens lost 22-19 at home in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite against Gardner Minshew and the Colts. This year in Week 2, they lost 26-23 at home as an 8.5-point home favorite against Minshew and the Raiders. It’s the worst spread loss for the Ravens in the regular season in the Lamar Jackson era.

What is going on in Baltimore? They usually save these disappointments for January, but Justin Tucker is missing 50-yard field goals while the rest of the league crushes them, Derrick Henry struggled to get going for a long time Sunday, and once again Minshew led the game-winning drive Jackson couldn’t. Remember, Jackson didn’t have a single game-winning drive last year despite the team’s 13 wins in his MVP season.

This game was too close for comfort for a long time, but it sure looked like the Ravens had it in the bag when Henry scored to make it 23-13 with 12:11 left. But the Raiders got a field goal, Henry was called for a false start to knock the offense out of a 3rd-and-1 on a three-and-out, and the Raiders were bailed out on a 3rd-and-17 incompletion with a defensive pass interference penalty in the end zone.

We looked at the Kansas City DPI, so here’s the Baltimore one:

I don’t like the call, but I can kind of see the optics for why Davante Adams was able to sell it for a penalty. I see Stephens initiate the contact with his left hand on Adams, but they were both grabbing and fighting each other into the end zone. But at the last moment, Adams positions himself to dive for the ball while Stephens takes a different angle and bats at it. Maybe if did more to let Adams go to try going for the pick, they would have let it go.

But that is definitely a tough call. Adams caught a touchdown on the next snap and the game was tied with 3:54 left. Maxx Crosby immediately sacked Jackson to blow up another drive for a 3-and-out. Just a terrible drive for the Ravens there.

The special teams are usually great, but the Ravens hurt themselves with a 24-yard punt, so Minshew got to start at the Baltimore 43. The drive moved 23 yards and Daniel Carlson was good on a 38-yard field goal to take a 26-23 lead with 27 seconds left.

You still have a chance with Tucker’s leg despite recent misses, but the Ravens were out of timeouts. With one snap left and 59 yards away, I guess Lamar thought his best shot was to run for it and lateral, but I’m not sure why he didn’t keep going down the left sideline before starting that part of it.

The Raiders rushed for just 27 yards in this game while Baltimore had 151 thanks to that last play being their longest in the game. But this makes the Raiders the only NFL team since 1970 to win as an 8.5-point underdog while rushing for less than 30 yards and getting outrushed by over 115 yards.

Just a brutal loss for the Ravens (0-2). Was the loss of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to Seattle even bigger than expected? They were still blowing a handful of multi-score leads under Macdonald in 2022 as well, so maybe 2023 was the outlier here.

It’s not getting any easier too. The Ravens are in Dallas before hosting Buffalo the next two weeks. There’s at least precedent for them losing at home by a field goal to Minshew and losing to Mahomes, but they have to start showing more than they have so far in 2024.

Saints at Cowboys: Did Carr Absorb Brady’s Powers Before the Game?

Well, I was right about Derek Carr throwing an interception in Dallas. But that was only after he hung 41 points as the Saints opened with six straight touchdown drives, looking like some mixture of the 1999 Rams, 2007 Patriots, and the 2023 Packers team that went into Jerry’s World in January and embarrassed Dallas.

I liked the Saints to make the playoffs and possibly win the NFC South this year, but where the hell did all of this come from? I guess maybe beating up those South teams wasn’t meaningless as they only just added to this figure of dominance from last week and late in 2023:

The 2023-24 Saints join the 1941 Bears, 1968 Browns, 2007 Patriots, and 2018 Saints as the only teams in NFL history to score at least 44 points in three straight games. That’s historic company for a team no one was expecting this from. Alvin Kamara is out there playing like he’s 1999 Marshall Faulk. Carr’s 96.2 QBR leads the league and he’s treating Rashid Shaheed like he’s his Randy Moss.

But in one of the most shocking stats I’ve ever heard, Derek Carr started this season with 15 straight scoring drives.

How did he do that? That’s 9 straight scores against Carolina, then he was benched for the backup on the final two drives (both punts) with the game in hand, then he led 6 straight touchdowns in Dallas to get to 15.

I’m not sure if any quarterback has done that before even if you search through prime Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or Mahomes. Even when Josh Allen reached some offensive perfection in the 2021 playoffs by going 7-for-7 on touchdown drives against New England, and best you can stretch that out to 10 straight scoring drives by including the regular season finale and the next playoff game in Kansas City. He started that one with a punt on his second drive, so even him playing his best didn’t come close to 15 straight scores.

The quarterback being pulled for the score is certainly a strong factor for why this streak can even exist. But I honestly don’t know if you can find another streak like this for a quarterback in the NFL.

And it’s Derek Carr who did it? Insane. Carr only threw 16 passes in Dallas but they went for 243 yards. It was an onslaught of big passing plays and a consistent ground game. The Cowboys never had much of a shot to keep up as Dak Prescott threw for 293 yards, a touchdown, and 2 picks. The first pick was the swing moment just before halftime when the Cowboys were down 28-13 and just converted a 3rd-and-10. The pick felt a little similar to the pick-six he threw in January to Green Bay to make it 27-0.

But I still never would have believed the Saints had this type of performance in them. When we’re asking for a team to step up this year and show it’s great now, could this really be the team that does it? Is new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak a nepotism hire that’s worth its weight in gold?

Very curious to see where this goes as the Sains have been blowing teams out for longer than two weeks. No one cared late in 2023 because they were missing the playoffs. They should have everyone’s attention now.

49ers at Vikings: They Haven’t Won in Minnesota Since WHEN?

I couldn’t believe this stat when I heard it, but the 49ers haven’t won in Minnesota since December 1992, or a month after Bill Clinton won his first presidential election. The 49ers were on an 0-7 streak in Minnesota.

Make it 0-8 now. I knew they lost in Minnesota last season on a Monday night, and I chalked that up to injuries (Christian McCaffrey), a fluky touchdown to Jordan Addison before the half, and Purdy suffering a concussion late in the game before he threw some bone-headed picks. I liked the 49ers, who were without CMC again, to roll with Jordan Mason and overcome that loss last year.

Welp, I was wrong. They let Sam Darnold hit Justin Jefferson for a 97-yard touchdown that could go down as the longest play from scrimmage in this entire season. The 49ers also had a punt blocked, turned it over on downs twice, and Brock Purdy coughed up the ball on a drive that should have led to a 27-7 lead for the Vikings in the fourth quarter, but Aaron Jones fumbled on his way to the goal line to keep some hope alive in a 20-7 game.

But there was no comeback. Despite a 99-yard touchdown drive after the Jones fumble, the vaunted San Francisco defense couldn’t get Darnold off the field in several crucial third-down chances with Jefferson sidelined with an injury. Addison was already out before the game, and the Vikings haven’t even had tight end T.J. Hockenson available yet in these games. They could actually get better.

But their 6:46 drive for a field goal was a dagger as the Vikings were back up 23-14 with just 3:30 left. The 49ers added a field goal with 1:12 left to make it 23-17, but they couldn’t get the ball back after the onside kick failed.

I guess Brian Flores’ scheme is the magic weapon against the 49ers (without CMC)? Mason still rushed for 100 yards. Purdy still threw for 319, but it was the 6 sacks and the timely stops that frustrated the 49ers the entire game.

Buccaneers at Lions: Something’s Missing with Detroit

This spread (Lions -7.5) felt too high even if Detroit technically covered it twice last year against Tampa Bay. But the Buccaneers looked great last week, and Baker Mayfield has been playing very well. I wasn’t that impressed with Detroit last week in the overtime win over a battered Rams team, and sure enough, they were worse in this game.

Something just feels off with Detroit right now. Jameson Williams had a 50-yard catch again and looks better than Josh Reynolds ever did, so it’s not the lack of a WR2 or anything. Maybe it ‘s a slow start for tight end Sam LaPorta (13 yards) or how the running game hasn’t really been that great outside of the overtime drive last week.

But it always looks worse when Jared Goff is throwing his Jared Goof picks, and that happened a couple of times in this one. Even though the defense, led by an incredible effort from Aidan Hutchinson (4.5 sacks) got to Mayfield 5 times, they still gave up a rushing touchdown to Mayfield late in the third quarter to trail 20-16.

That still left Goff with four opportunities to get the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter, and despite each drive crossing deep into Tampa territory, the Lions went scoreless. Goff had a bad pick and later turned it over on downs twice despite the defense continuing to get him the ball back.

It was a big missed opportunity in a winnable game.

Bears at Texans: Not Quite My MVP’s Night

After a Sunday filled with contenders disappointing, I was hoping to see the Texans put on a show Sunday night in an easy win over Chicago. Instead, they scored 19 points on 12 drives, blew the spread, and had to come up with a last-second stop of rookie Caleb Williams, who was under duress all night from the pass rush.

At least the pass rush looked good with 7 sacks and plenty of pressures. But the Texans went from scoring 13 points on three drives to struggling the rest of the game. It looks like the huge Joe Mixon game in Week 1 was more about playing the Colts, a lousy run defense, than expecting any dominance out of the Houston running game this year. Mixon finished with 9 carries for 25 yards in this one as he was banged up.

But Stroud was solid, and that connection with Nico Collins (135 yards) is dominant. There is no denying who the WR1 in Houston is this year.

But I would have liked to see the Texans win in more convincing fashion against a Chicago team that still clearly has flaws with the offensive line, coaching, and Wiliams’ inexperience. He was better than he was in Week 1 at least.

Jets at Titans: Big Dick vs. Big Dick Energy

I guess the Jets can survive a team like Tennessee with this kind of effort, but they still have a lot of work to do to get up to the elite class. Aaron Rodgers might be good for one highlight-reel touchdown a week in this offense, but the highlight largely belonged to Breece Hall for a brilliant 26-yard touchdown that made him look like a wideout. Keep in mind that was on a drive to open the half that was nearly stopped on a three-and-out before a roughing penalty on the Titans negated a 3rd-and-15 stop.

The Titans had a lot of costly mistakes again in falling to 0-2. Will Levis again tried to do too much and had multiple turnovers, and they also had a punt blocked.

But to break a 17-17 tie in the fourth quarter, Rodgers led a 74-yard touchdown drive with 4:31 left. When Levis had to answer, his legs got them within 8 yards, but then things stalled out with a big sack, and Levis threw incomplete on 4th-and-14 to end the game.

The game did at least end a 7-game streak where Rodgers did not throw multiple touchdown passes, a streak that went back to November 2022.

Colts at Packers: Coaching Matters

A good example of how coaching matters. The Packers didn’t have Jordan Love, and their backup Malik Willis has failed to throw for 100 yards in each of his three NFL starts. But Matt LaFleur had a run-heavy gameplan as the Packers rolled up 261 yards on the ground with most of that coming before halftime as Josh Jacobs (151 yards) and company were outstanding. Well, except for that horrible fumble by Jacobs at the 1-yard line as he carried the ball like a loaf of bread.

But the Packers managed the game beautifully without Love. Willis finished 12-of-14 for 122 yards and a touchdown pass while rushing for 41 yards.

At this point, you have to wonder if Shane Steichen should be employing a similar approach with the raw Anthony Richardson, who threw 34 times but was picked off three times, including a Hail Mary to end things in the 16-10 loss. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor rushed for 103 yards but only had 12 carries. The Packers had long drives early while the Colts struggled to get into any rhythm.

The Colts are now 0-4 in games where Richardson plays most of the snaps. Not great.

Browns at Jaguars: The Lawrence Splits Continue

I said I was hedging my Week 2 picks with six games where I picked a spread winner different from the moneyline winner. I ended up going 5-0 ATS on those games (Falcons-Eagles pending) and 2-3 SU, so it wasn’t a bad strategy. Just needed a little more courage to pick the Browns and Packers outright to win.

But the reasons I liked the Browns in this one? They beat the Jaguars last year and I feel the defense has the right pieces to force Trevor Lawrence into a rough game, especially after discovering these stats where he basically can’t win a game if he doesn’t complete over 60% of his passes.

Sure enough, he was 14-of-30 in this game, so he was under 50% in the 18-13 loss. It was a rough game that seemingly never wanted to end as the Jaguars tried to make a comeback attempt late. They even had a 2-yard go-ahead touchdown with half a quarter left that was taken away for an illegal shift. They settled for a field goal to make it 16-13, Lawrence couldn’t get out of his end zone with the ball to start the next possession, and that sacked produced a safety with 1:44 left.

But the Browns were not able to run out the clock, and a Deshaun Watson incompletion on third down actually saved Lawrence a solid 40 seconds to make this 18-13 comeback plausible with 1:27 left.

He still had to go 90 yards, but after reaching the Cleveland 28, Lawrence’s Hail Mary was knocked away to end the game and drop the Jaguars to a disappointing 0-2 after both games were winnable.

Lawrence is now 2-21 when he doesn’t complete at least 60% of his passes. Daniel Jones is in the same boat and is now 1-17 when he doesn’t too, the only record that’s worse among the 179 quarterbacks since 1970 with at least 50 games of experience.

This might be how I pick Jacksonville games the rest of the year. Determining if Lawrence is going to complete a high rate or not. Right now, the connection to Christian Kirk is completely broken, and it didn’t help that tight end Evan Engram was injured in warm-ups and missed this game.

Giants at Commanders: OnlyFGs

Jayden Daniels’ first game-winning drive was a historic NFL game. I was skeptical of how Daniels would fare in a Kliff Kingsbury offense, but we have two games of evidence that he has drive engineering skills that can be very intriguing once he gets better at throwing the ball, especially to his wide receivers.

But after only getting the ball 8 times last week in Tampa Bay, each team only had the ball 7 times in this game. The Commanders just happened to turn all 7 of their possessions into field goals by Austin Seibert. That speaks poorly for their red-zone ability, but 3.00 Pts/Dr is still elite.

They took a knee before the half too, but this is really a perfect game if the goal was to score all field goals, and I don’t think there’s another like it in NFL history. If you search for games since 1940 where a team had no punts and no turnovers, only one game comes up showing a team that scored fewer than 26 points, and I’m thinking that’s just an error that they’re missing data for punts or turnovers or something’s off.

Only three teams show up for a game with 0 punts, 0 turnovers, and 5 field goal attempts. Interestingly enough, the Giants scored three touchdowns in this game and still lost because they only scored 18 points. Their kicker (Graham Gano) was injured before the game, made it worse on the opening kickoff, which was a 98-yard return by Austin Ekeler negated by penalty, and the backup missed an extra point. So, the Giants tried to go for two twice and failed both times.

Just an extremely unique way to get to a 21-18 score as both offenses were moving the ball quite well. Malik Nabers also looked the part of a No. 1 wideout with 10 catches for 127 yards and his first touchdown. But he’ll regret not hauling in that last target that he had a diving attempt for on 4th-and-4 at the Washington 22 with 2:09 left.

Instead, the Commanders took over in a tied game and Daniels hit his longest pass play for 34 yards to Noah Brown to set up the final, winning field goal with no time left. All seven field goals were from within 45 yards, and 6-of-7 were from within 33 yards.

You probably won’t see another one like this, but it does point to some interesting ways Daniels can operate in this offense with short passes and timely scrambles/designed runs. He just needs to stay healthy.

Steelers at Broncos: Flag Fest

It’s hard to judge the Pittsburgh offense right now as it seems like every highlight-worthy play gets called back by penalty, and sometimes it’s not even a good call. The Steelers only scored 13 points in Denver, but that was enough to outlast a supposed offensive genius in Sean Payton, who relied on some tricks to get Bo Nix to complete some passes down the field. But Nix wasn’t as painfully inefficient as he was last week in his debut. He’s just struggling on a team that frankly is lousy, and they have no real running game to support him with.

But it was a tough game to watch with 19 accepted penalties for 202 yards between the teams. The Steelers punted 8 times while the only turnover was a pick in the end zone by Nix before he added a second on a last-ditch desperation throw.

The Steelers reportedly gave Russell Wilson a game ball in the revenge game his calf wouldn’t let him play. I wonder what Tomlin is thinking at this point as they are not scoring enough points to beat any decent team, but Fields also isn’t screwing up egregiously yet to bench him for Wilson, a wild card.

But celebrating a 2-0 start when you’re averaging 15.5 points per game is a weird thing to do. They still have a lot of the offensive stink they’ve had since December 2020.

Chargers at Panthers: Stress-Free 2-0 Chargers

It almost happened last week, and it did happen Sunday when J.K. Dobbins had more rushing yards (131) than Justin Herbert had passing yards (130). But Herbert threw for two touchdowns to Quentin Johnston, who held on this time, and it was a stress-free 26-3 win over a pathetic Carolina team. Herbert is owed some layups after what he endured his first four seasons.

But it’s shocking that the Panthers actually look worse in every way this year under coach Dave Canales. Bryce Young is daring to be the worst quarterback drafted No. 1 overall since JaMarcus Russell, and maybe the only thing stopping me from calling him the biggest bust is that he’s a tiny guy with a relatively small contract.

But Young flat-out stinks as he managed to complete 18-of-26 passes for just 84 yards. Young is the only quarterback in NFL history to complete at least 18 passes in a game without throwing for 100 yards.

I didn’t think there was anything Canales could do to get himself fired like Frank Reich did 11 games into the 2023 season, but I might have to rethink that. This team is still the worst in the NFL and there has been nothing they could even hang their hat on from either game so far.

Seahawks at Patriots: Better Played Than Expected

You might have imagined a rough offensive game with this one being a “body clock” game for Seattle, which traveled without the services of Kenneth Walker. But the offenses were actually solid in doing what they do best.

The Patriots didn’t ask Jacoby Brissett to throw much, but they found creative ways to get the ball to tight end Hunter Henry for 109 yards. That supported a running game that piled up 185 yards.

But when it came time to pick up a 3rd-and-1 in overtime, Rhamondre Stevenson was stopped and the Patriots decided to punt from their 39. They never saw the ball again, but that is a tough call to go for it as the game is about to be over with a field goal inside the 40 if you don’t get it. Tough spot to come up short after another good rushing effort.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks couldn’t run the ball without Walker, gaining 38 yards on 14 carries with his replacement (Charbonnet). But props to Geno Smith for a big-time passing game (327 yards) without any turnovers.

The Seahawks blocked a 48-yard field goal with 3:54 left that would have made them have to score a touchdown, so add that to the list of “shit that Tom Brady never had to worry about in New England for two decades.”

That allowed the Seahawks to tie with a field goal to force overtime, and the defense’s impressive stop got them the ball back deep in their own end. Geno delivered on the game-winning drive, and the Seahawks paid it off with a 31-yard field goal to win 23-20 in overtime.

The Seahawks are 2-0, and with Tua Tagovailoa probably being out for Miami in Week 3, they have a real shot to go 3-0 with this schedule opportunity.

Rams at Cardinals: Did You Really Doubt Marvin Harrison Jr.?

It’s funny how we had one week of panic over Marvin Harrison Jr. because he caught one ball for 4 yards last week, and apparently the GPS data said he never ran faster than 16 miles per hour.

Well, we can put that one to rest after he caught 4 balls for 130 yards and two touchdowns in the game’s first 12 minutes. He didn’t add to those numbers, but the team also didn’t need him to as they blasted a battered Rams team 41-10 in a game that was expected to be much tighter. Sean McVay usually is on the right end of these blowouts, but this time it was all about the weapons the Cardinals have (MHJ, Trey McBride, James Conner) and the dwindling options for the Rams after losing Cooper Kupp in the game. They already lost Puka Nacua in Week 1.

Throw in Stafford getting sacked 5 times behind a battered line, and this has the potential to turn into 2022 much quicker than any wild card season for the Rams. It’s getting late early.

Next week: Patriots-Jets on Thursday? I’ll be working on the computer. Texans-Vikings suddenly a lot more interesting than it has any business being. Eagles-Saints could be good, or the Saints could roll yet another team if Jalen Hurts is really as mistake prone this year as he looked in Brazil. Malik Willis Revenge Game in Tennessee, or does Jordan Love already come back? Chargering comes to Pittsburgh, or does it? Steelers might actually need to score more than one touchdown in that game. Definitely a lot of pressure in Cowboys-Ravens game as one will be 0-3 or 1-2 after it. So many amusing ways that one could go. Chiefs should be sharper in Atlanta on Sunday night. A somewhat bland MNF doubleheader (Jags-Bills, Commanders-Bengals), but let’s see if Jayden Daniels can drop Cincy to 0-3 and if the Bills can drop the Jags to 0-3.

NFL Stat Oddity: 2023 Conference Championship Games

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

We were so close to ending the season how it started, but the Detroit Lions lost a heartbreaker in San Francisco after blowing a 24-7 halftime lead. It happened so quickly too as ball security doomed the Lions.

Ball security was the concern for the Chiefs this year, but outside of a Mecole Hardman lowlight for the ages in Buffalo, they avoided those mistakes this postseason, and that’s why they are heading to their fourth Super Bowl in the last five years. Only the 1990-93 Bills and 2014-18 Patriots can say they’ve done that.

Experience really did seem to win out Sunday as the Chiefs and 49ers have been in the last several championship games while the Lions and Ravens sunk in unchartered water for those franchises. You saw the Chiefs handle business early and late while the Ravens imploded. The Lions started so strong, but we’ll talk about that horrific third quarter that ended them.

Both road teams covered in games decided by a grand total of 10 points, but there was actually just 1 lead change all day, and the Ravens technically didn’t have a 4th-quarter comeback attempt as they never had the ball when trailing by 1-8 points. But that still means they finished this season without a single game-winning drive.

There is a lot to cover, not just from Sunday’s games but also from past talking points from earlier in the season that played out amusingly on Championship Sunday. It is a Super Bowl rematch at the end of the year, but it’s 54 and not 47.

Music to my ears.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Ravens: Patrick Mahomes + Elite Defense = Nightmare Combo for NFL

I had to break this one down into sections to make sure all the talking points are covered.

Giving Flowers to the Right Guy for This One

I am going to start by praising someone who should go down as one of the key contributors to this Kansas City run that still has a shot at getting the dynasty label if they can finish the job in Vegas.

Steve Spagnuolo is an all-time great defensive coordinator, and this run probably isn’t what it is if the team never hired him in 2019. Those 2018 Chiefs were so explosive on offense and so terrible on defense under coordinator Bob Sutton. That’s how you lose a 54-51 game to Jared Goff. If they didn’t make that switch after the title game loss to the Patriots, I think you’d see these early Mahomes seasons as another one of those offensive juggernauts that watches their defense get shredded every January and has an empty trophy case.

Spagnuolo never found success as a head coach, but that doesn’t mean you can’t be a great coordinator and specialist. He fits that mold. The 2007 Super Bowl run with the Giants is his biggest achievement when he held the 18-0 Patriots to 14 points in Super Bowl 42.

But even that year, his regular season defense left something to be desired, and the same was true in Kansas City until this year when they had great numbers across the board, they never allowed more than 27 points in any game, and they allowed the fewest points after halftime with his adjustments.  But in big games, you can usually trust Spags to deliver something. They sacked Joe Burrow 5 times in last year’s AFC Championship Game, and they were all over Lamar Jackson in Baltimore on Sunday.

In a league where so many of the top defensive minds have repeatedly seen their defenses tank in the playoffs and make opponents look better than average (yeah, we’re calling out Mike Tomlin and Sean McDermott, among others), Spagnuolo usually exceeds expectations with his defense.

This is Andy Reid’s offense, but Spagnuolo is his defensive ace in the hole. Another great job on Sunday.

The Unbelievable Start

Over bettors (44.5) have to be in shambles this one ended 17-10, because the start of the game was unbelievable stuff.

The Chiefs were right to kick off after winning the coin toss. I liked receiving first for the underdogs in the last two rounds, but the Chiefs are a veteran team, and an early 7-0 hole isn’t going to bother them. But they started things properly with a three-and-out, then the offense went to work with another brilliant opening drive in a playoff game.

Patrick Mahomes would set a tone for the day that he was going to get the ball out quickly and to his best players. He converted a 4th-and-2 with a nice grab by Travis Kelce for 13 yards, and it was right back to Kelce with safety Kyle Hamilton in coverage for a 19-yard touchdown to open the scoring.

The Ravens were able to answer with a helter-skelter drive where Lamar Jackson almost got called for intentional grounding after a deep retreat, took off for 21 yards on a 4th-and-1 QB Power run from his own 34, then avoided a sack from Willie Gay’s replacement at linebacker only to find Zay Flowers alone for a 30-yard touchdown to tie the game. Wild stuff, but you can see early on from that drive that the Chiefs were bringing it after finishing No. 2 in pressure rate and sacks this season.

The Chiefs answered with another great drive where they converted all 4 of their third-down opportunities, including a ridiculous play from Mahomes to Kelce where he held the ball for nearly 10 seconds, and Kelce made a great diving catch. Isiah Pacheco finished the drive off with a 2-yard touchdown run a few minutes into the second quarter.

After three straight touchdown drives, this looked like it might be a wild shootout, proving a couple of multiple MVP winners outweigh the presence of the top two scoring defenses. But that would be the end of the touchdowns for the day.

The Defenses Step Up

Remember how the Chiefs almost got to Jackson on the touchdown drive? They got to him good on the ensuing drive, and the blindside hit produced a strip-sack and the Chiefs suddenly had the ball at the Baltimore 33.

But instead of taking a 21-7 lead, the Chiefs were stopped after driving 20 yards and turned it over on downs. It looked like Kelce had a 3rd-and-9 conversion, but the replay proved he was just a hair short. The Chiefs’ refusal to run the quarterback sneak since Mahomes was injured (dislocated kneecap) on that play in Denver in 2019 is a real bummer, because they are depriving themselves of the most effective play from scrimmage in this game. They tried to run Pacheco for the 4th-and-1, but he was stuffed and the Chiefs blew the opportunity from the fumble.

Without standout guard Joe Thuney available, the Chiefs didn’t have much of a strong push in the interior line against a tough defense, especially after those first two drives. The backs only finished with 69 yards on 25 carries.

Then when Jackson caught his own pass on a deflection for a 13-yard gain, it was starting to look like maybe this would be Baltimore’s day after another shaky start. This play was shades of Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota catching his own pass and scoring a touchdown in the 2017 wild card upset in Arrowhead.

Incredibly, Jackson went to halftime with only 4 completions besides that play. The Chiefs did not let him get into a rhythm, and some of the play-calling from Baltimore was questionable. How does Gus Edwards get 1 carry in the first half when it went for 15 yards? I used to think under Greg Roman that Jackson would struggle in these Kansas City games because he’d try to keep up with Mahomes as a passer, and that’s just not what Baltimore is built to do.

Now you go to this game, and the Ravens had more passing efficiency this year than in years past, but the Chiefs have the right mixture of pass rush and strong corner play to make things very hard on Jackson. And if we’re being honest, was a receiving corps of Zay Flowers (rookie), Odell Beckham Jr. (aged veteran), and marginal receivers like Nelson Agholor (drops) and Rashod Bateman (ghostly at times) really all that great to begin with? Throw in Mark Andrews just coming back from injury.

Count that as another reason I was not buying the Baltimore offensive hype for why Jackson should win MVP. This was a good rushing team that is made better by Jackson’s rushing threat and production (especially as a scrambler), and they took advantage of the best field position from having the best defense to score more points than expected.

But they weren’t getting those short fields in this game. Even when they did, they did nothing with it like the drive with 2:47 left in the half. The Ravens started at their own 41, and it was a big opportunity to tie the game. But the offense went 3-and-out after Jackson threw a couple of incompletions.

The Chiefs took over with 1:46 left at their own 11, and the Ravens started to lose their composure with a couple of 15-yard penalties for unnecessary roughness on the defense, including a roughing the passer call for hitting Mahomes in the face. It may have been accidental, but it was a big shot to the face and an easy call.

But the Chiefs stalled just shy of the red zone after guard Trey Smith was called for back-to-back holding penalties. The second one wiped out a 33-yard touchdown on a screen to Rashee Rice, but it didn’t look like much of a hold either. The Chiefs ended up settling fo a 52-yard field goal, and Harrison Butker did well to split the uprights.

The Chiefs led 17-7 at halftime, flipping the script on the front-running Ravens who were used to leading at the half this year. But the Chiefs no doubt left some opportunities on the field for even more points.

The Scoreless Third

Again, the Chiefs allowed the fewest points after halftime this season, and their own offense had some issues at times after the half as well. Remember the 3-week stretch where they didn’t score a single point after halftime against the Broncos, Dolphins, and Eagles?

It happened again this time, adding to the misery of the Ravens that they couldn’t win a game where the Chiefs scored 3 points on their final 9 drives. In fact, the Chiefs are only the 7th team to win a playoff game where they didn’t score more than 17 points and didn’t score after halftime. It hadn’t happened since the 2005 Redskins beat Tampa Bay 17-10, the game I remember best for watching the weekend the furnace broke and it was bitter cold.

But it was fascinating watching these defenses repeatedly stop these offenses, especially after the way the game started with those 3 straight touchdown drives.

The Chiefs were not getting effective runs, center Creed Humphrey’s snaps were getting lower and lower, and the Ravens were getting wise to the short passes out to Rice and the running backs. They kept stifling those for no gain or even a loss of yards.

But the Ravens really weren’t doing any better outside of the odd completion to a running back in the flat. But after getting into Kansas City territory, Jackson was sacked on a 3rd-and-9 and knocked out of field goal range. The Ravens had to punt.

I read on Twitter the lights went out in the stadium during break, and my mind went to Super Bowl 47 (49ers-Ravens) when that happened in New Orleans. The Ravens were up big at the time, and the 49ers got back in the game after that delay. I was thinking are these hypocrites going to be okay with this possibly helping the Ravens calm down and finish this comeback? Did they purposely try it after what happened in that Super Bowl?

Well, it was done on purpose by Baltimore, and it was for a reason as corny as you could think of. They brought out Terrell Suggs to pump up the crowd and team. I didn’t even think you were allowed to do something like that except for before the kickoff. Talk about desperate.

But the Chiefs did go 3-and-out in their own end. When the Ravens got the ball back, Flowers was all alone for a 54-yard gain, but then he made the stupid decision of taunting and drew a 15-yard flag. Take your pick for that one. It could have been for standing over the receiver, throwing the ball at him, or talking trash. Just a stupid mistake to lose some of the yards from the longest play of the game.

But that mistake was quickly forgotten about as the game moved to the 4th quarter with the Ravens still down 17-7.

The Final Quarter

Flowers giveth and Flowers taketh away. He had a hard game to analyze because he made big plays with 115 yards and the team’s only touchdown. But he also self-destructed this drive and entered playoff lore with a fumble for the highlight reels for years to come. Earnest Byner? Jeremy Hill? Jerome Bettis? You have company from a division mate.

On the first play of the quarter, Flowers took a short pass from Jackson and looked like he was going to score. But the ball came out and the Chiefs recovered in the end zone for a touchback. Did he break the plane first for a score? I thought he did live, but replay was definitive and L’Jarius Sneed made perhaps his biggest play for the Chiefs with a forced fumble:

https://twitter.com/YahooSports/status/1751734825294397674/video/1

Incredible play. According to Next Gen Stats, this fumble cut Baltimore’s win probability in half from 28.3% to 13.5%. But it still felt like the Ravens had a chance if only because the Chiefs did not capitalize on a few opportunities to grow the lead.

But speaking of incredible plays, Mahomes took his first sack of the game and he almost got out of it before Jadeveon Clowney, who was penalized for roughing the passer on the previous play, got him down.

You really don’t want to see him bending like that in the playoffs, but that was close to an escape. But the Chiefs had to punt again, and it was a hell of a punt as it pinned the Ravens at their 1 with 10:35 left.

If Lamar wanted a legacy drive to restore some faith in this game, this was the chance. The field was obviously a long one to drive, but I can’t say the Ravens were helping themselves to make it look possible. When Jackson scrambled on a 3rd-and-1, I thought for sure he was waiting for a lane to take off for a scramble and first down, but he only hesitated more and took a sack for a 2-yard loss.

That was the moment where it felt like the Chiefs won the game if he’s making that kind of play on a 3rd-and-1. But the Chiefs really could have won the game if they stopped the Ravens on 4th-and-3 from their own 18 as I thought that was a ballsy call by John Harbaugh. Sure, they could justify going for that, but the defense was playing great and it’s game over without that conversion. But Jackson converted with a 6-yard pass to Odell Beckham, and that seemed to ease some pressure for the time being.

Agholor caught a 39-yard deep ball to get this drive moving faster, but two plays later, Jackson threw a pick in the end zone despite three defenders around tight end Isaiah Likely. Why in the world was Likely putting his hand up like he was Randy Moss? He wasn’t open.

Only 6:45 remained, but this was Kansas City’s second takeaway of the quarter. It was the first time since Week 7 against the Chargers that the Chiefs had multiple takeaways in a game. Ouch, Ravens. Ouch.

But the Chiefs went 3-and-out again after Mahomes was sacked for the second time. A good punt return gave the Ravens their best starting field position of the day at their 46, and they were able to set up a 43-yard field goal from Justin Tucker with 2:34 left to make it 17-10. Did the officials swallow their whistles a bit in the fourth quarter? Yeah, you could say that. But I don’t think there was anything egregious enough worth a flag on those final Baltimore throws. Jackson didn’t even have an intended target on the last one as he looked to throw it away out of bounds.

The Chiefs had 2:34 left to burn. Mahomes probably hasn’t been quite the God of 4-minute offense like he was in that 2020 season when he was automatic at putting the game away, but this was the opportunity here. The Ravens started the drive with too many men on the field for a 5-yard penalty, which is an embarrassing way to start a drive. Was it intentional? I’m not sure it could be to give any real advantage. Now knocking a lineman over pre-snap like the Ravens did on the next play, that was surely intentional to manipulate the clock. The Ravens even got popped for a 15-yard flag for that one, but the end result was 6 seconds passes and the Chiefs still had 1st-and-10 after moving up 20 yards.

After holding Pacheco to gains of -1 and 2 yards, the Ravens had what they wanted with a 3rd-and-9 at the 2:19 mark after having used their final timeout. A conversion wins the game for the Chiefs, and a stop gives the Ravens one more chance. It had to be a pass all the way.

The Ravens only rushed 4, and Mahomes decided to go deep to the unlikeliest of targets in Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but the receiver who seems to only show up for Championship Sunday made his best play all year with a 32-yard grab while falling down to complete the process of the catch. Here, it’s even better with the Korean audio calling it:

That’s ballgame. In the regular season, MVS likely drops that pass, and the Ravens get another shot. Maybe they blow it quickly. Maybe they force overtime with a touchdown. Maybe they win by going for 2. But the Chiefs avoided all of that drama because MVS finally just made the play and it clinched another playoff win, the 14th for this core group since 2018.

In the end, the best team won, the best quarterback won, and while the Ravens finished strong on defense, the Chiefs made the bigger plays on that side of the ball as well.

Lamar Jackson: Not Saying I Told You So, But…

I had a tweet go somewhat viral this week – almost 500,000 views for a longform post with no pictures or video is pretty good – that irked some fans of the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens who largely misinterpreted what I was saying.

My point was Josh Allen is a great quarterback, Mahomes is better, but quarterback play is not how the Bills are ever going to get past the Chiefs and into a Super Bowl. They need their defense to step up and make Mahomes look mortal or knock him down a peg in a playoff game instead of making him even better than usual. Apparently, Joe Burrow and Tom Brady are the lucky ones who got their defenses to do that to Mahomes for a half or a full Super Bowl, or they won a coin toss in overtime and got the ball again unlike Josh in the 13 Seconds game. Buffalo’s failures on defense are why they haven’t gotten the job done despite the league’s 2nd-best record since 2019 and a 3-1 regular-season record against Mahomes. They implode defensively in the playoffs against Mahomes, and it isn’t Allen’s job to defend him better.

Along the way, I brought up Lamar Jackson and the fact he is 0-3 in the playoffs when the Ravens allow more than 13 points (0-4 now). I said he would implode against the Chiefs in those playoff games that Allen lost to them with Buffalo.

I’m not even going to repeat some of the ridiculous things people said to me about that part, but the idea that I was taking a shot at Lamar for no reason is just not true. He was Kansas City’s next opponent, and he is a top peer of Allen’s and Mahomes’ in this AFC. His history is relevant, and knowing his history as I did, that’s why my claim he would implode was not at all baseless. I had strong reasons to feel that way:

  • Lamar was 1-3 against the high-flying Chiefs of 2018-21, only winning in 2021 against their worst defense in a game where he still threw multiple picks and needed CEH to fumble in game-winning field goal territory.
  • Lamar is 3-14 against playoff teams that score more than 21 points against his team.
  • Why more than 21? Mahomes led the Chiefs to at least 22 points in 15-of-16 career playoff games before Sunday.
  • Why not include 21 points? Because scoring 21 points is a below-average scoring figure for every NFL season since 2007.
  • Finally, Lamar was 0-3 in the playoffs when teams scored more than 13 points, already losing 23-17 to the Chargers and 17-3 to Buffalo in a game where he threw a pick-six.

When you mix all of that together as I do in my mind, why would I expect anything but an implosion if he had to face a Kansas City team in the playoffs that scored 38, 42, and 27 points the way the Chiefs did against Allen’s Buffalo defense?

Sure enough, he imploded against the Chiefs in the playoffs, but it was in a low-scoring game, which makes it even worse. The Chiefs only scored 17 points on 11 drives. You’ll take that against Mahomes any chance you get. Even 17 points on 10 drives (Chiefs ran out clock on last drive) is great work by the defense.

The Ravens scored 10 points on 10 drives, which tied their lowest scoring output of the season with Lamar at quarterback. In fact, the team lost a pair of 17-10 games to Pittsburgh, and now it’s another 17-10 game in the playoffs. And Jackson was much better in that Pittsburgh loss than he was on Sunday. At least he can blame his receivers for dropping a couple of touchdowns that day.

He can blame Flowers for costing him a second touchdown drive in this game with that fumble at the 1, but this is still highly disappointing stuff in what was supposed to be his year with everything aligning and all the dominant wins over good teams they had.

But again, this continues to make Lamar look like a big outlier as he is now 4-for-4 at scoring his season low in the playoffs.

  • Lamar Jackson (100%): four times in four postseasons (2018, 2019, 2020, 2023-T)
  • Joe Flacco (28.6%): twice in seven postseasons (2009, 2023)
  • Philip Rivers (28.6%): twice in seven postseasons (2007, 2009)
  • Tom Brady (25.0%): five times in 20 postseasons (2005, 2007, 2011-T, 2012, 2019-T)
  • Cam Newton (25.0%): once in four postseasons (2015)
  • Peyton Manning (20.0%): three times in 15 postseasons (2002, 2004, 2013)
  • Josh Allen (20.0%): once in five postseasons (2022)
  • Matthew Stafford (20.0%): once in five postseasons (2016-T)
  • Patrick Mahomes (16.7%): once in six postseasons (2020)
  • Matt Ryan (16.7%): once in six postseasons (2011)
  • Russell Wilson (12.5%): once in eight postseasons (2015)
  • Drew Brees (10.0%): once in 10 postseasons (2020)
  • Dak Prescott (0.0%): zero times in 5 postseasons
  • Aaron Rodgers (0.0%): zero times in 11 postseasons
  • Ben Roethlisberger (0.0%): zero times in 12 postseasons

This was also Jackson’s fourth wire-to-wire playoff loss (never led), so if you’re still going to try comparing him to early Peyton Manning in the playoffs, just stop. It’s not close.

And it’s not like I was all for keeping this narrative alive, but you have to when this is the performance he’s putting out there in the biggest game of his career. For a change, I’d like to actually say I predicted a season’s Super Bowl winner before Week 1. I was not on the Kansas City repeat train. At least not until about 6:20 PM ET on Sunday.

The Ravens were my preseason Super Bowl pick and Lamar was my Super Bowl MVP. I got that one wrong again, but I really thought this could be their year, and they had what they needed with home-field advantage, a great defense, the best kicker, better receivers and scheme under the new offensive coordinator.

But this looked like your same old Ravens and same old Lamar in a big game. I actually think he should have ran the ball more than he did, because that’s where he still looks most comfortable and dangerous to me.

That’s why I never bought into the MVP surge for him that only came late in December after they had those big wins against the 49ers and Dolphins. But if you followed the season closely, you know that wasn’t your typical MVP season or offense. They had the shortest fields thanks to the defense that was No. 1 at points allowed, sacks, and takeaways.

I wrote earlier this week that any team that loses to Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett, and Deshaun Watson can certainly lose to Patrick Mahomes with the best defense of his career. It reminded me of when I said the 2007 Patriots aren’t going undefeated after seeing how they should have lost to A.J. Feeley (Eagles) and Kyle Boller (Ravens) in back-to-back weeks. I had to wait until deep in the Super Bowl for that one to com true.

I just needed Mahomes and the Chiefs to show up Sunday to take care of this one. And yes, I picked Lamar as the default MVP, because no one else deserved it. He doesn’t either as I have repeatedly said no one had a true MVP season in 2023. The race was always cooked, and someone was going to steal it late. I fundamentally don’t believe a quarterback should win MVP when their team is clearly driven by the best defense instead of the offense. Hopefully that won’t happen again in the future, but it was unavoidable with this season’s race.

The Five-Year Rule

If the Super Bowl couldn’t happen for them this year, when does it happen for the Ravens with Lamar? Does it ever happen with John Harbaugh as the coach, or do they move on there eventually? We’ve said similar things about Josh Allen and Sean McDermott in Buffalo, and sure enough, the Five-Year Rule survived its toughest challenge yet.

That was the article I wrote for FiveThirtyEight in 2017 about how no team has ever won its first Super Bowl starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than 5 seasons.

Both drafted in 2018, this was already Year 6 for McDermott-Allen and Harbaugh-Jackson. I thought maybe the Ravens got some extra life for Lamar having back-to-back December injuries in 2021-22, so he didn’t really get a normal 5 seasons.

But nope, Mahomes and the Chiefs went on the road and slayed them both again. And this was supposed to be the worst Kansas City team with the worst offense and receivers. Remember, this Kansas City team lost at home to the Raiders with Andrew Walter Aidan O’Connell not completing a pass after the first quarter on Christmas. That was barely a full month ago.

But Mahomes continues to be the outlier. Maybe if he did get drafted by Chicago in 2017, the Bills and Ravens would have already been to a Super Bowl each. Maybe they still lose those games, but they should have at least been ready in the post-Brady AFC to take advantage.

Allen’s offensive output against the Chiefs in January has been just fine. It’s his defense that needs to step up. As I correctly predicted and we now have a data point of proof, Lamar’s offensive output against the Chiefs in the playoffs was trash today, and he is the one who needs to step up more than his defense in the postseason. That’s also evident by literally every playoff run of his career.

I hope that clears up why I talk about Allen as the best young active quarterback in the playoffs behind Mahomes. But like the rest of the league, they’re all looking up to the best player in the game.

Mahomes Is 1 of 1

Finally, what more can you say about Mahomes? Give him an elite defense and he’s right back in the Super Bowl. His QBR this postseason is also 90.2, which would be the 5th-highest since 2006 (min. 2 games).

It was a down year in the regular season for sure, but my argument for months has been that his play has not slipped as much as the mistakes around him (drops, fumbles, penalties) have shot up. It was always an outlier to have as many significant drops and penalties as they had to take away game-winning plays against the Lions, Eagles, and Bills, all playoff teams.

If they could just limit those mistakes, they were going to have a good shot at repeating behind Mahomes and the best defense of his career, and here we are. He’s now at 14 playoff wins, already tying him for 3rd all time with the likes of Terry Bradshaw, John Elway, and Peyton Manning.

Never won a road playoff game? Took care of that with a pair, and he was an underdog both times. That also gives him one up on Joe Montana and Tom Brady, who did something very similar the game before they won their 3rd Super Bowl ring:

  • In the 1988 NFC Championship Game before he won his 3rd Super Bowl, Joe Montana beat the No. 1 scoring defense (Bears) on the road in a 28-3 win (49ers were favored by 2).
  • In the 2004 AFC Championship Game before he won his 3rd Super Bowl, Tom Brady beat the No. 1 scoring defense (Steelers) on the road in a 41-27 win (Patriots were favored by 3).

Mahomes can win his 3rd ring now after beating the No. 1 scoring defense (Ravens) on the road in the AFC title game, but he also did it as a 4.5-point underdog.

Twenty years ago, I thought the 2003 AFC Championship Game ruined quarterback discourse for the next two decades when Tom Brady tried matching Peyton Manning pick for pick but only one defense made the quarterback pay for his mistakes. I thought the 2023 AFC Championship Game could have been a significant factor in how the next decade is viewed for quarterbacks, and maybe it will be.

But it will be to show that Mahomes is just in his own class right now.

The AFC let him get through last year on a high-ankle sprain. Having his health and a great defense is almost unfair now.

Lions at 49ers: Third Quarter from Hell Ends Dream Season for Detroit

I always thought the Lions (+7.5) had a decent shot this week despite the spread, because this team can score, it can run and pass, it can shut down the run, and you just know Dan Campbell is going to do some aggressive things.

Campbell is certainly facing criticism for his decisions in this game, but I don’t think that’s where Detroit lost its 24-7 lead. It was largely from one terrible quarter after what was nearly a flawless half.

The Lions were dominating on the ground with Jameson Williams scoring a 42-yard touchdown run and looking more like Deebo Samuel on the play to start the game. The 49ers missed a 48-yard field goal from rookie Jake Moody, exactly the type of break an underdog needs.

Brock Purdy forced a bad ball in the second quarter that was intercepted and not dropped this time, and that set up another Detroit touchdown run for a 21-7 lead. Purdy was a bit off again despite having Deebo back this week.

The Lions used the final 5 minutes of the half to get a field goal, and you’re almost shocked they decided to kick it from the 3-yard line given how much Campbell loves to go for it. But that was the right call as only 10 seconds remained, you don’t get the advantage of field position should you fail, and the 49ers were getting the ball to start the next half. Going up 24-7 was the right move.

At that point, Campbell and the Lions really could do no wrong. But after the 49ers quickly got a field goal, the Lions went on a fateful drive that changed everything. Their win probability was over 90% as they led 224-10 and were driving again after scoring on 4-of-5 drives in the first half.

But on a 4th-and-2 at the San Francisco 28, Campbell bypassed the 46-yard field goal and kept his offense on the field. Jared Goff threw a solid pass and Josh Reynolds just dropped the conversion. I think it was the right call as the Lions do not have a great kicker like a Matt Prater (former Lion), let alone Justin Tucker or Harrison Butker. I think trying to make the 49ers go down 21 was the right call, or you could also work on more clock and kick a shorter field goal that’s more likely to go in and make it a 17-point game again. My beef is with Reynolds for dropping it, not the call itself.

But that’s kind of where the game was lost. Reynolds didn’t make a fairly easy catch, and the 49ers had the break of the game when a deep ball for Brandon Aiyuk clanked off the facemask of defender Kindle Vildor, and Aiyuk caught it on the deflection for a huge 51-yard gain.

There was a flag initially thrown on the play but it was picked up entirely. That doesn’t mean it was declined, it was just not called, so if Vidor could catch, that’s an interception for Detroit. Instead, it’s a 51-yard gain and the longest play of the game. Do I have my new LOAT target in Purdy?

Aiyuk finished that drive for a touchdown to make it 24-17, then the Lions fumbled on a funky looking handoff to Jahmyr Gibbs on the very next snap, setting up the 49ers from 24 yards out for the tying touchdown, which they got on the ground with Christian McCaffrey.

It only took the 49ers about 12 minutes to erase that 17-point deficit. It just felt like the Lions were cooked at that point, and they did respond with a 3-and-out after Reynolds had another atrocious drop on 3rd-and-long that would have extended that drive.

The 49ers drove into scoring range after a big pass to George Kittle (28 yards) for his only positive gain of the game, but it was a big one. Despite back-to-back sacks by the Lions to stall the drive, the 49ers took their first lead at 27-24 with a 33-yard field goal.

The Lions moved the ball but were facing a 4th-and-3 at the San Francisco 30 with 7:38 left. I know it’s in the team’s DNA to go for it, but I think you really have to consider the field goal here. The 49ers were hot, your offense was a mess this half, and 48 yards is a reasonable kick. But the Lions went for it, and Goff was unable to connect with Amon-Ra St. Brown with half a quarter left. Uh-oh.

I know the other factor is kicker Michael Badgley is not a great player at all, and he could have easily missed that kick. But I’m just not sure going for it was the right call in that spot. If they were closer, I could see it, but time was a factor now, and you are playing an offense good enough to put the game away with another score.

That ended up being exactly what happened too. Now this debate with Purdy and system quarterbacks will wage on, but he is a better runner than Jimmy Garoppolo ever was, and his legs were very effective as a scrambler in this game. He was able to rip off a 21-yard run on a 3rd-and-4 from midfield that had to rip the hearts out of Detroit fans.

Then when McCaffrey finally had a big gain with a 25-yard run to the 3, you could see the end was a snap or two away. The 49ers punched it in and led 34-24 with 3:02 left. The Detroit Super Bowl dream was all but dead.

The hope was to get a touchdown while saving all the timeouts and having enough time to get a field goal or touchdown. They almost pulled it off, but I thought a pass in the flat to Anthony Firkser was a huge missed opportunity as he didn’t score on the play and instead got out at the 1-yard line. At least he got out to stop the clock, but when David Montgomery got stuffed for a 2-yard loss on 3rd down, that destroyed the drive. The Lions ended up having to burn a precious timeout, then decided to go for the touchdown anyway on 4th-and-goal given the dire prospects. Fortunately, Williams came down with a nice touchdown grab and that made it 34-31 with 56 seconds left.

But since they burned that timeout, it was all coming down to the onside kick. Those have gotten so hard to do and the number this year was reportedly 2-for-41 (4.9%). The Lions had a faint glimmer of hope for a second, but the 49ers recovered, and it would have been a penalty on Detroit for touching the ball before 10 yards anyway to negate a recovery. The game was over after the 49ers ran out every last second.

Just pure heartbreak for Detroit because they were so close and looked so good at halftime. I think the poor ball security killed them more than any choice to go for 4th down did, and maybe if they had a better kicker, they’d trust that more. You never know if you are going to get back to this point, but you have to think maybe Williams can develop into their WR2 to replace an awful Reynolds performance, and the best days could be ahead for Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs. There’s some hope there but NFC is tough as it usually has a new flash in the pan team every year.

But one mainstay has been the 49ers, who are going to the Super Bowl for the 2nd time since 2019 and it’s a rematch with the Chiefs again. I’ll have to write so much about this game the next two weeks that it’s pointless to go into it now, but I think it can be a great game again. But it should be different from LIV.

If you told me the 49ers would trail after halftime the way they have this postseason, I’d never believe they made it to the Super Bowl. But they answered the bell with overcoming adversity, and you could still say they haven’t played their best on either side of the ball yet this postseason.

I hope these 2 weeks go quickly, because that should be a fun night in Vegas with this matchup. But definitely am a little bummed out the Lions didn’t finish the job and give their fan bases a Super Bowl appearance.

Next 2 weeks: I’m happy. The last thing I wanted was a Super Bowl with both No. 1 seeds as I always believed since Christmas night that would have produced an awful, one-sided game. And I was not looking forward to 2 weeks of researching if a pair of front-running teams can produce a close game or writing about “if Brock Purdy can just avoid the turnovers on deflected balls.” Well, I might still write something like that multiple times with many pieces to come on this game, but 49ers-Chiefs provides good writing opportunities with a recent history and teams that have changed quite a bit from 2019. I can dig it as the game to decide this 2023 season.

NFL 2023 Conference Championship Game Predictions

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

After a long week, it’s almost time for Championship Sunday. Both No. 1 seeds are favored but crazier things have happened before. Final score predictions below.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Conference Championship Game Predictions

Here is my grid for picks this weekend. Many of the props are explained in the links above.

Chiefs at Ravens (-4.5)

It seems like every year when the Chiefs are in a big game like this, I go back to my Super Bowl LIV preview before they beat the 2019 49ers and the same logic applies to the next game.

This is a game that a team like the Ravens should win most of the time. They have home-field advantage (a good one at that), they have the No. 1 defense, No. 1 running game, a quarterback playing with a chip on his shoulder who is about to get the MVP award again, the best kicker in the game, a coach who has won big games before, and they have killed some top teams this year. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are challenged at wide receiver, have a poor turnover differential, don’t often start games well, don’t protect the ball well, and it probably is going to rain during the game to possibly exacerbate these ball security issues with drops and fumbles against a ball-hawking defense and front-running team.

All that said, the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, and that usually is good enough to win the game. He’s 3-1 against the Ravens and would be 4-0 if CEH didn’t fumble in game-winning field goal territory in the last matchup in 2021. He’s 12-2 against top 5 defenses (7-0 away from Arrowhead), he’s 13-3 in the playoffs, and he’s 8-3 as an underdog. He even comes into this game with his best defense as this is a matchup of the top two scoring defenses, so that differential is more on his side this week than in past big games this time of year.

If the Chiefs can cut down on their mistakes, and Kadarius Toney is inactive again (that helps), I think they win the game. But the Ravens were my preseason Super Bowl pick, Lamar Jackson was my Super Bowl MVP pick, and I’ve been predicting doom in the playoffs for the Chiefs since October:

Not going to change my pick now, so here we go. KC to cover but another egregious mistake by one of Mahomes’ teammates costs them the repeat bid.

Final: Ravens 24, Chiefs 21

Lions at 49ers (-7.5)

It sounds like Deebo Samuel is playing, which doesn’t help Detroit’s cause as they try to make their first Super Bowl. In a weird way, I think if the Chiefs win the first game, the Lions are winning this game to set up that rematch from opening night. Otherwise, it’s No. 1 vs. No. 1 in the SB, and I’m not sure how many times I can keep writing for 2 weeks how Brock Purdy needs to protect the ball better against that defense this time.

But isn’t that always the case with Purdy and this team? They don’t have normal weaknesses, and they actually showed they could win a close game and overcome some adversity last week against Green Bay. If he doesn’t throw a pick parade, you have to like their chances against anybody, but I am looking to see how the defense fares against one of the best offenses they’ll see this year.

The problem is Detroit comes in with the No. 23 defense and has allowed 5 straight quarterbacks to pass for 345+ yards. They’ve still gone 4-1 in those games and would have been 5-0 if not for a certain ending in Dallas, but that kind of bad secondary play is going to catch up to you, and the 49ers obviously scheme open receivers better than any team in the league. That’s why I love Brandon Aiyuk to step up and dominate this week, though the return of Deebo could hurt that. Watch it be a George Kittle masterclass instead. That’s the problem for Detroit, the 49ers are just loaded.

But I am going to be keenly watching for how aggressive Dan Campbell is as a road underdog. He’s had it a little easy at home as a favorite these last two playoff games. Curious to see how many 4th downs he goes for, if he does anything like a fake punt or surprise onside to steal a possession. Anything to win the game.

But in the end, I think the 49ers are too balanced and simply better than the Lions, so I have to go with the home team. But the Lions should be able to cover even if it’s through the backdoor.

Final: 49ers 30, Lions 23