Tag: Steelers

NFL 2025 Week 8 Predictions: The Mike Tomlin Special Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It’s a big bye week in Week 8 in the NFL with six teams off, and 8-of-13 games are AFC vs. NFC. We’ve already seen the Chargers turn in three hours of Carson Wentz torture porn on Thursday night, and it’s a surprise that game didn’t have a bigger spread given how banged up the Vikings were at QB and OT.

But you have eight games this week with a spread of 6.5 or bigger, so that could mean some big upsets are brewing. Frankly, nothing would surprise me with the way this season has gone.

However, I’ll be surprised if the Steelers don’t put in a good effort against Green Bay on Sunday night. Sure, there’s the Aaron Rodgers vs. Green Bay angle, but it’s also just what Mike Tomlin does. He’ll lose to the Bengals when he’s supposed to win, people cast doubt, then he comes back and beats the NFC team with the best record as an underdog and people jump back on board. Seen it for years.

I think there are schematic reasons for the Steelers to win too, including Rodgers getting the ball out fast to negate Micah Parsons, the Packers haven’t played well on the road, and you never know when Jordan Love will give you an ugly turnover.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 8: Patrick Mahomes Breaks PFF’s Grading System and Daniel Jones Joins Elite Company
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 8

I tackled the PFF grading joke this week in the QB rankings for Geno Smith vs. Patrick Mahomes. My Week 8 picks explain this week’s picks for PIT, KC, a Colts parlay, and a 5-leg touchdown scorer parlay. Also got a 3-leg teaser on lines I like for the Bills, Ravens, and Bengals.

NFL Week 8 Predictions

Props were a mess on TNF, but I had the Chargers all the way.

BUF-CAR: I really want to pick the Panthers to at least cover, but I just know the moment I do, Sean McDermott’s defense gets 3+ takeaways, Allen waxes that defense, Andy Dalton shits the bed, and the Bills win 30-13. But it is an upset alert game if Dalton can protect the ball, convert 3rd downs, the running backs go to work, and they’ll probably need a fumble recovery on defense. Still interested to watch this one.

NYJ-CIN: Does it matter who plays QB for the Jets? Technically, yes, because I would be more worried about Tyrod Taylor beating the Bengals than Justin Fields. But is Tyrod even healthy enough to be any good here? Is he any good in this particular offense? He still has some of the same shortcomings as Fields (4QC/GWD, untimely sacks). I’ll hedge on the Jets just to be safe.

.CHI-BAL: :Love the over more than anything, but I think Lamar returns and the team plays their best full game of the year.

CLE-NE: I don’t expect the Cleveland offense to do much here. Neither team is particularly great at running the ball.

SF-HOU: Liked the under 41.5 even before the WR injury news. Mentor vs. mentee game. Houston looked so terrible and still hung around with Seattle. Cautiously trusting that defense at home to make Mac Jones make mistakes and Houston gets a much-needed win.

MIA-ATL: Falcons should blow them out but who knows with a team that loses 30-0 in Carolina and beats Buffalo. Miami scores 20+ more often than you think with how bad Tua’s been, so I’ll go with the spread hedge.

NYG-PHI: Never had a good justification for Philly covering besides “they’re due to win by 8+” this year. Like it even less with A.J. Brown reportedly out. Hard to say subtracting Brown and adding Jalen Carter is going to turn a 17-point loss two weeks ago into a 8+ point win, but alas here we go with the pick. Because then I remembered the Giants lost 26-14 in New Orleans and gave up 33 points in the 4th quarter last week, so who the hell knows anything about these teams at this point? Maybe “Eagles win by 1-13” is the best pick here.

TB-NO: Baker bounces back. Not expecting a ton from NO here.

TEN-IND: I thought of taking Titans in a backdoor cover, but I really do think the Colts can score 38+ again. Can the Titans score 24+? I don’t see it yet.

DAL-DEN: Another one of the few close games we have here this week. I could see it going either way, but isn’t Denver contractually obligated to come back late against the NFC East this year? Denver at home by 1-3.

GB-PIT: Like I said, this is Tomlin in his element. Rodgers will play well. Defense will get some takeaways. Steelers by 1 score.

WAS-KC: The sportsbooks seem to be thinking what I was all week by putting Washington’s O/U to 17.5 points. I think the Chiefs stop the 27-game streak of 18+ points by Washington to maintain their own NFL record of 28 games doing that (twice). Some revenge against Mariota for the 2017 playoffs. You have to go back to 2020 to find the last time the Chiefs had a streak of 5 wins by multiple scores. And never in the Mahomes era have the Chiefs posted 5 straight wins by 12+ points, which is what they’d need to do here to cover again.

They’ve gone 8 straight games now without a one-score win, which is unlike them, so don’t be shocked if it’s 28-17 and they don’t cover the full 11.5 spread. That’s why I said Washington under 17.5 is the best pick on the scoreboard..

NFL 2025 Predictions Week 7: Writer’s Block Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I’m blanking on a title this week, so this is the Writer’s Block Edition. Welcome to Week 7 in the NFL, which started with the night where Joe Flacco showed that throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins against a Pittsburgh defense that probably hasn’t shown Joe anything new in 15 years isn’t that hard.

It’s pretty crazy that Aaron Rodgers joins another team and the defense immediately turns to shit. So much money spent on that unit, four players who will get HOF consideration ,and yet they forced zero takeaways, allowed the 32nd-ranked run offense to pile up big yardage, and Flacco picked them apart of course. Real bang-up job, Mike.

Anyways, I’m looking forward to more shootouts this weekend, especially that 4:25 Sunday window with Colts-Chargers and Commanders-Cowboys. Some real potential there. I’ll probably watch RedZone all day, and then I want to see if the prime-time underdog trend continues. Since Week 5, underdogs are 7-1 SU in prime time. The only favorite to win was Kansas City against Detroit last week.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 7: We Need to Talk About Josh Allen and the Disappointing Buffalo Bills
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 7

I used this week’s QB rankings to get off a pretty good-sized rant about Josh Allen and the struggles of the Buffalo Bills, who have their bye. For the Week 7 picks, I have a lot of different markets this week, and I’m still betting on Stefon Diggs to get his first TD (most rec. yards without one in 2025). I see the Titans’ spread has moved to +6.5, so I like NE -6.5 even more than NE -7 with Mike Vrabel probably hoping for a sequel to 59-0.

I’m not even trying to bring back the reverse jinx on the Patriots. I swear…

NFL Week 7 Predictions

Had the Steelers by 1-5 on Thursday night. Oh well.

No Puka Nacua against the London Jags? I think I’ll go Jags, but the under might be the best bet there.

Carson Wentz Revenge Game is really here. But I like the Eagles to get up early and hold onto the lead this time.

Rashee Rice is back, and I can imagine a huge score for the Chiefs at home. But division games have been so shaky for big favorites, and it’d be typical NFL for a team that blew out the Ravens and Lions to barely beat the Raiders at home. I’ll take the Kansas City special: Chiefs win but don’t cover. Maybe it’s Geno in garbage time with the backdoor cover.

Saints keep it close, but Chicago wins close again.

Weather sounds absolutely horrible in Cleveland and we could even get a tornado warning here. I hope I don’t lose power after going 5 days without it the last time a wind storm swept through. But I’ll trust the better defensive team (Browns) to win that one.

Giving the Jets one more try as the Panthers don’t score much on the road.

Again, I like NE big this week.

Chargers used to be a lot of trouble for the Colts in the Manning era, but I think Indy gets this one in their return to SoFi against the other LA team, which is starting No. 4 and No. 5 tackles for Justin Herbert. The Chargers aren’t as dominant defensively this year, so I think Daniel Jones and company can get it done in a good one.

Giants’ pass rush can keep it close but don’t see Jaxson Dart throwing it well in Denver.

I’m going with Dallas at home to edge out Washington, which won’t have Terry McLaurin again while CeeDee Lamb sounds back.

Don’t expect GB to struggle that much with Arizona.

Going with the Falcons on SNF because of that defense against Mac Jones. It has to be good for some huge turnover, right? Always risky to back a road team coming off a huge MNF win, but the 49ers are missing two best defenders and going up against Bijan Robinson and London here. Give me Atlanta.

I think Baker keeps it close Monday night in the potential game of the week, and don’t forget it was a 20-16 TB win in Detroit last year. But I think Detroit wins and would probably pick differently if the full trio of Evans/Godwin/Egbuka were playing.

Seahawks are 3-9 ATS at home under Mike Macdonald. Time to change that and beat Houston comfortably.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 2

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

The NFL has become such a week-to-week league where you never know what’s going to happen anymore. Sometimes it can be explained, then other times it just can’t.

How does Justin Fields go from maybe his best game ever against the Steelers to maybe his worst game ever against a Buffalo team that was giving up over 10 yards per play to Baltimore last week? Then the Ravens were struggling to score anything on the Browns without short fields, and Derrick Henry was in fact shut down for the full game after nearly rushing for 200 last week.

You can say “division games are different” but how do the Giants go from 6 points in an NFC East game against Washington to 37 points in another NFC East game in Dallas? How do the Giants and Cowboys trade score after score in the fourth quarter after the Cowboys played a 3-0 second half against Philadelphia last week?

There aren’t many teams I’d be willing to write a glowing review about today as everything just seems so temporary and misleading. Played well today? Great, you’re probably just one week away from your next disappointment.

Green Bay, my Super Bowl pick in the NFC, does look pretty good though when you consider how Detroit scored at will Sunday and how they made Jayden Daniels look as ineffective as he’s ever been in a game. That’s a team to watch.

But with a good Monday night doubleheader to go, we had 10-of-14 games with a comeback opportunity this week, which is another high number as I could easily see both Monday night games adding to that.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Eagles at Chiefs: Not Very Super

First, I predicted the Eagles would win 23-20, so close enough. But if this is what the Eagles vs. Chiefs matchup looks like in 2025, I’m oddly more confident in the Chiefs prevailing in a Super Bowl rematch if it came down to that. At least they’d have Rashee Rice for that one, and maybe Xavier Worthy if his season isn’t destroyed by injury.

How did he get injured? Travis Kelce accidentally blew him up. Who made the biggest mistake Sunday for the Chiefs’ latest one-score loss? Kelce when he dropped a go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter and turned it into an interception, killing a marathon drive when it looked like the Chiefs were ready to take the lead.

It’s just been that kind of start to the season for the Chiefs. Even in a game they lose 20-17, their quarterback played well enough to score 27 points on nine drives, which would again be elite production despite the flaws around him. But when your kicker shanks an early field goal into the parking lot, and your trustworthy tight end is catching harder passes and letting the layup go to the other team, it’s that kind of day again.

It’s not like the Eagles showed much. Jalen Hurts only threw for 101 yards on 22 passes. He only rushed for 15 yards this week too with the Tush Push looking as pathetic as ever with the blatant false starts they’re getting away with on those plays. Something has to be done there.

Hurts is 2-0 at Arrowhead now and they’re two of the worst games he’s ever played in his career. Steve Spagnulo blitzes the hell out of him in these games, and he basically hits one lucky deep ball in the fourth quarter of both while willing Kelce to turn the ball over in the red zone in both games. I’m talking about the 2023 Monday night game, of course, and that one had the MVS dropped touchdown to boot.

But no such luck for the Chiefs this week. In fact, the ending was much like Week 1 in Brazil where the Chiefs cut a two-score deficit into a one-score deficit in the last 3:00, then the defense couldn’t get the stop it needed to get the ball back. So you lose a one-score game, and this is happening because it’s the defense on the field late whereas last year it was usually Mahomes on the field late with the ball in his hands where you want it.

Offensively, they’re close to making it work even with the missing receivers, but it’s just not sustainable as Mahomes again outrushed the rest of his teammates combined as the best plays they have in the playbook are not in the playbook. They’re just scrambles by Mahomes. You can’t last a season doing that. By the way, those scrambles are why he still had the third-highest QBR (79.3) this week before MNF.

Defensively, they were much better this week outside of letting Hurts hit that 28-yard pass to DeVonta Smith on 3rd-and-10 in the fourth quarter. Actually more of a “dagger” than “The Dagger” in the Super Bowl that was already decided as this one helped make it a two-score game.

But if you look around the league, it’s defenses forcing takeaways that are the cornerstone of success in today’s NFL. You get takeaways, you get extra possessions, and you usually get great field position for easy scores.

The Chiefs need that field position right now with the lack of weapons and offensive cohesion. Yet they’re not getting it as the Chiefs have just one takeaway in their last six games. That’s horrible.

The 2024 Chiefs won at unprecedented rates in close games and games without getting takeaways. That’s great, but it’s very hard to sustain that year over year. We’ve seen that play out twice already this season, and while losing to two Super Bowl contenders by one score is hardly the worst thing in the world, it gets serious if they lose to the Giants this week too with Baltimore and Detroit soon to come.

I don’t think the Chiefs got the Eagles’ best shot on Sunday, but I also don’t think the Eagles have much in the way of reinforcements who could make a difference in February if they did meet again in a third Super Bowl. What, is Dallas Goedert going to suddenly make Jalen Hurts throw the ball an average amount of yards that don’t’ look like someone’s GPA?

But the Chiefs are banking a lot on the returns of Worthy and Rice (and maybe rookie Jalen Royals, another injured wideout they’ve been missing). That’s fine, but there are serious issues with this team’s inability to create takeaways on defense, and the offense has to answer the question of how do you deal with Kelce’s legacy in what should be his final season when he’s sabotaged the offense in both games already?

But if we’re comparing Sunday to last February, these Chiefs can hang with these Eagles. I’m not sure the Eagles know who they really are right now offensively either. Neither team looked very Super Bowl-worthy in this game.

Giants at Cowboys: Barnburner in Jerry World

You mean to tell me all those times we wasted 3 f’n hours watching Giants-Cowboys in prime time, and the one time they throw them on at 1 PM it turns out to be the craziest game in the history of this rivalry?

This game was nuts as both teams scored at least 20 points with five lead changes and a game-tying 64-yard field goal in the fourth quarter alone. Russell Wilson threw for 450 yards (career high was 452 against Houston in 2017), showing he’s still got something in the tank and shouldn’t be benched yet. It also speaks back to the 345 passing yards per game the Giants averaged in the preseason. Malik Nabers looks the part of an All-Pro with 167 yards and two touchdowns, including a 48-yard bomb with 0:25 left that will be forgotten immediately because of all the other madness here.

George Pickens made his presence felt for Dallas with some key catches during the fireworks. Brandon Aubrey might be the new standard for kickers with his 64-yard kick to force overtime, and then his 46-yard winner in overtime also came with 0:00 left on the clock, and I read that’s the first time ever a kicker made a field goal with no time left in the fourth quarter and overtime of the same game. A little hard to believe.

But what a way for Dak Prescott to get his 14th-straight win against the Giants. We also saw the playoff overtime system used in the regular season for the first time. The Giants won the toss and elected to receive, putting the defense on the field first – something Kyle Shanahan didn’t do for the 49ers in Super bowl 58 against the Chiefs in the only other game we’ve seen this used for.

I think the Giants made the right decision there. Shockingly, it took five possessions in overtime before anyone scored, and the Dallas score came after Wilson’s big mistake of throwing up a pick on 2nd-and-14.

I’m still not sold Dallas is a contender this year, or that we won’t see Wilson get benched for the rookie. But sometimes you just have to enjoy two veteran quarterbacks, two of the oldest we have in this league, slinging it all over the field like that. Incredible stuff.

Broncos at Colts: Meaningful Football in Indy Again?

While the ratings for Eagles-Chiefs will likely be good and the NFL seemed to build the late-afternoon schedule in Week 2 to showcase that game, there was a good one going on in Indy between the Broncos and Colts, the Peyton Manning Bowl.

The lack of meaningful games played by the Colts since the 2014 AFC Championship Game has been a tough pill to swallow given how great the team was in the Manning early and those early Andrew Luck seasons. The Broncos probably feel the same way about their post-Manning era as they finally made the playoffs for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50 last year.

So, this was a rare big game for both of these franchises to get to 2-0. Bo Nix wanted to make up for a bad season opener, and he mostly did. Daniel Jones wanted to prove Week 1 was no fluke, and he did that too. The Colts haven’t punted yet this season, the type of offensive efficiency that’s usually only reserved for QBs having God Mode runs as this is only the fifth time it’s happened since World War II ended.

Jones is playing legitimately good football with another 316 passing yards. Jonathan Taylor was incredible too with 215 yards from scrimmage in the game. The Denver defense was a paper tiger last year and it’s looking similar this year.

But I must say for as much as Colts coach Shane Steichen looks to be vindicated in benching Anthony Richardson for Jones, he’s very lucky the Colts stole this game as he didn’t do a good job closing it out. Denver got sloppy late with Nix throwing a pick in scoring range, then Wil Lutz missed a big 42-yard field goal with 3:15 left.

Down 28-26, the Colts only needed a field goal. But after Jones completed a pass to pick up a first down and burn Denver’s final timeout with 1:44 left, Steichen went with a super conservative strategy of three more runs before settling for a 60-yard field goal with a so-so kicker (Shrader) at best.

That’s crazy. I don’t care how good some kickers have gotten at long-range kicks, you have to keep throwing there and get closer. Sure enough, Shrader was short on the 60-yard field goal, but the Colts got bailed out with a leverage penalty on the Broncos. You be the judge:

I see why they called it by the letter of the law. You can’t touch an opponent or teammate to propel yourself to try blocking a kick. But I’d like to see a call when it’s something more egregious as he barely gained any advantage here. That’s a tough 15 yards.

Given a second chance, Shrader was good from 45 yards and the Colts won 29-28 to move to 2-0. I would dock an ending like this for Steichen in a Coach of the Year race, but this is becoming quite the story with Jones playing like this.

Maybe MetLife Stadium is the curse and that’s why Geno Smith and Sam Darnold couldn’t wait to get away from there and do better. The Butt Fumble of 2012 (shout out Mark Sanchez) cursed all quarterbacks who start there, which is why Eli never won another playoff game for the Giants after it, and all the failed careers for these other Jets and Giants quarterbacks.

I guess I need some kind of supernatural explanation for how Indiana Jones is leading one of the most efficient offenses we’ve seen these last two weeks. Doesn’t feel real yet.

Seahawks at Steelers: Bonehead Play of the Year

It’s kind of incredible (and sad) how Aaron Rodgers joins a team and suddenly the defense is terrible, and the running game barely exists. But the Steelers had some issues on defense to end 2024. They weren’t supposed to carry over after they added some real veteran talent, but this thing is not working out for Mike Tomlin after 8 quarters.

But this was a very winnable game for the Steelers that broke Seattle’s way thanks to three huge plays:

  • In the third quarter, Rodgers’ 3rd-and-goal pass was deflected by a diving Calvin Austin into an interception in the end zone when the Steelers had a chance to take a 21-14 lead.
  • Rookie running back Kaleb Johnson made one of the dumbest plays in NFL history when he let the kickoff alone in the landing zone and the Seahawks were able to recover it for a touchdown to make it 24-14.
  • Even with the Seahawks running a give-up draw on 3rd-and-19, Kenneth Walker still hit them for a 19-yard touchdown run to make it 31-17 with 3:41 left.

Rodgers struggled in this game with some passes it’s hard to believe he threw because of how risk averse he usually is. But between that red-zone pick off the bad deflection and Johnson’s moronic move, the Steelers looked like toast here. It didn’t help that they made Cooper Kupp look like the 2021 version of Kupp, giving Sam Darnold another viable weapon outside of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is proving me wrong by looking like a legit WR1 with 8/103 this week.

The Seahawks are a little better than I was giving them credit for. Given the way Justin Fields couldn’t complete passes against a Buffalo defense that was bleeding yards last week, I only think the worst about where the Pittsburgh defense is headed this year. Rodgers with one good wideout is just not going to be able to lead many multi-score comebacks.

The Steelers are in the danger zone right now as I’m not really sure what they can hang their hat on. Rodgers can still make some gifted throws, but the consistency isn’t going to be there like the old days.

Jaguars at Bengals: Jake Browning to the Rescue Again

The early reports on Joe Burrow’s injury is turf toe and it could be serious, meaning three months out or even the rest of the season. Either way, we should expect to see more of backup Jake Browning, who again got the job done similar to a 2023 game in Jacksonville, which was the kind of high-scoring win in crunch time the Bengals almost never win with Burrow at quarterback.

Even with throwing 3 interceptions, Browning has shown he can bounce back and give his talented receivers chances to make plays. Even Tinsley caught a one-handed touchdown from Browning, so it’s not just Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, who also scored Sunday in the Bengals’ 31-27 comeback win.

But I also think it’s funny that a year ago, Bengals fans complained about a 4th-and-16 defensive pass interference penalty in Kansas City that cost them a game in Week 2. It was the right call, mind you, but they weren’t letting that one go all season.

This time, the Bengals got a very questionable DPI flag go their way on a 4th-and-5 with 1:54 left, basically the ballgame again, when Travis Hunter was flagged for what looked like pretty good defense. He was engaged with the receiver who also made contact to Hunter’s face, and Hunter did get his head turned around and swatted at the ball. I wouldn’t want a flag here on either side.

Hunter played 43 snaps on defense (42 on offense), so he had a much bigger role this week as a dual threat. However, it sucks that his first high-profile defensive snap is a shady penalty that arguably decided the game.

But you have to stop the backup quarterback, and the Jaguars couldn’t do it just as they couldn’t stop Browning in 2023 either. He scored on a sneak touchdown with 18 seconds left, not really leaving the offense enough time to answer it.

Trevor Lawrence had an uneven game and missed several opportunities to put more points on the board and to convert late on a 4th-and-5 at the Cincinnati 7 with 3:42 left. That decision shows how the NFL has made progress with aggressive coaching as Liam Coen wasn’t going to settle for a 6-point lead and be in the same position of giving up the go-ahead touchdown (that the Bengals absolutely knew they needed) in the final 20 seconds.

In fact, it’s better to be up 3 there late as opposed to 6 as the offense will hopefully stay conservative on fourth down and go for the tying field goal. But the Bengals ended up getting the winning touchdown anyway.

Tough loss for the Jaguars, and we’ll just have to see what the news is on Burrow. But I think people shouldn’t sell the drop-off to Browing short. If he can win the clutch games Burrow couldn’t, what’s the real issue? The defense remained opportunistic this week with the timely stops of Lawrence too, so they’ll need to keep that up.

This injury all but tanks any Burrow for MVP talk, but hopefully he gets better news and can return eventually this season. But I’d be lying if I wasn’t looking forward to getting more data points on how Browning does in this offense and in moments like this.

Falcons at Vikings: Not the Baby LOAT

When people say it’s so easy to play quarterback now, show them this game. That didn’t look like much fun for J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix, two young quarterbacks the NFL apparently wanted to showcase in this prime-time slot instead of the Super Bowl rematch in Week 2.

These defenses had these quarterbacks in hell, especially the revamped pass rush for the Falcons that already had a solid debut in Week 1. Every chance I had to write about the Falcons this offseason, I kept mentioning those two first-round rushers and veteran Leonard Floyd, and all three of them were in on the 6 sacks McCarthy took in this 22-6 grind.

Similar to Monday night for McCarthy without the short fields helping him score late, I’m just not that impressed with his arm. The passes look weak to me as if he was coming off a shoulder or elbow injury instead of a meniscus. It’s weird.

But while it felt like another game he could steal in the fourth quarter thanks to his defense keeping him in it at 12-6, think again. Even after McCarthy got some great field position (own 48) to start his rally attempt, the Falcons closed that down immediately with a strip-sack that led to a 54-yard field goal for new kicker Parker Romo, who delivered big all night.

Down 15-6, McCarthy threw incomplete on a 3rd-and-1 to a wide-open receiver deep. Shockingly, Kevin O’Connell had his team punt with 9:52 left and the team still down two scores on a night it struggled to slow down the running game as Bijan Robinson had a huge game.

I think it’s the worst punt of this young season by any coach. Don’t call the deep shot on 3rd-and-1 if you’re just going to punt there. Then why wouldn’t you just go for it? If you can’t get a yard, how do you expect to score twice the rest of the game? If you don’t get it, you at least give up a short field that shouldn’t take much time off the clock.

But the worst-case scenario happened. The Vikings did their sissy punt, and the Falcons used up 6:17 of game clock to add a touchdown to make it 22-6 with 3:22 left. Game over, basically.

McCarthy’s rotten night ended so poorly that he threw up a pick expecting to get an offsides penalty but instead it was for an illegal shift on the Vikings, so the interception stood. Rough.

I’m feeling pretty good about Robinson and the Atlanta pass rush going forward. With the Vikings, I liked the under 8.5 wins all offseason for this team as I was not buying McCarthy until he proved he could play. His defense is going to keep him in games and he could end up playing well by season’s end, but for right now, he doesn’t know what he’s doing and the Vikings are going to continue to struggle.

He doesn’t look like he’s going to be the Baby LOAT from Michigan (new Tom Brady) after all.

Bears at Lions: They Just Needed Ben Johnson Back in the Building

Maybe not 52-21, but this more or less was the outcome I expected in this one. The Lions show all is well with the offense without Ben Johnson, they take advantage of the Bears coming off a Monday night stinker, and Caleb Williams throws too many inaccurate passes.

But Jared Goff must have been really pissed about that fake “0-19 without McVay/Johnson” stat as he went off for 334 yards and 5 touchdown passes in this one. As many touchdown passes as incompletions.

If you took a poll of how Bears fans felt around the third quarter of Monday night’s game and today, that would probably be a very dramatic swing. They are down bad in many areas.

But the Lions will need to show something in Baltimore next week after a no-show in Green Bay for Week 1 against elite competition.

Bills at Jets: The Real Justin Fields Returns

See, that’s why I didn’t want to overreact to Justin Fields in Week 1, because I know what he’s been in the NFL and that’s not good enough to be a franchise quarterback. In this game, he played into the fourth quarter before a concussion knocked him out, and he still finished 3-of-11 for 27 yards passing.

What the hell is that? Tyrod Taylor came in and immediately completed 3 passes. Mitch Trubisky had to come into the game after Josh Allen injured his nose, and he completed a 32-yard pass to finish with more passing yards than Fields. Just ridiculous stuff.

But it was a weird Josh Allen game as he had no touchdowns of any sort and had a few bail-out penalties on third downs to extend early drives for points. The Jets never stood much of a chance, and James Cook was the star with 132 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns in an easy 30-10 win.

And yes, the Bills won the turnover battle again, had no turnovers again, and Cook’s fumble was recovered by the Bills again. They seemingly can’t be stopped with these turnover numbers.

Browns at Ravens: Not the Happiest Return for Joe Flacco

Joe Flacco made his return to Baltimore for the first time since losing his job to Lamar Jackson in 2018. The Browns were a 12.5-point underdog by kickoff, which is a pretty huge line for a Week 2 division game.

But it was only a 10-3 lead at halftime for Baltimore after the Browns shut down Derrick Henry (11 carries for 23 yards in the entire game) and limited the big plays with nothing over 15 yards in the first two quarters. Myles Garrett (1.5 sacks) is having a huge start to his 2025 season, and his third-down sack of Lamar Jackson forced the Ravens to settle for a field goal and 13-3 lead early in the third quarter.

However, that’s when the game took a turn in Baltimore’s blowout favor as a Flacco pass was picked off by Nate Wiggins, who returned it to the Cleveland 5, setting up another short field for a Baltimore offense that already had a 24-yard touchdown drive thanks to a blocked punt in the first half. The Ravens finished that for a touchdown and 20-3 lead, then later added a Flacco fumble return for a touchdown and another short-field touchdown to blow things open at 41-10.

Rookie Dillon Gabriel relieved Flacco instead of Shedeur Sanders, so let the talk there begin. The Browns scored a garbage time touchdown and lost 41-17.

Cleveland just gave up way too many short fields to make things easier on the Ravens on a day they didn’t bring their A game one week after the Buffalo choke. Should be a much  better test next Monday night against a Detroit team that just scored 52 points.

Patriots at Dolphins: Jock (Mike Vrabel) Stuffs Nerdboy (Mike McDaniel) in Locker

What a week for Miami coach Mike McDaniel. Rex Ryan calls you “nerdboy” on TV, then you are left rambling in your post-game speech after the latest 33-27 loss to the Patriots at home to fall to 0-2.

Basically, this Miami defense is trash, and Tua Tagovailoa’s decision making just seems impaired. Maybe it’s too many concussions but he’s just not seeing things well like on his big interception in a 30-27 game with 2:12 left.

There was a surreal moment where the Dolphins returned a punt 74 yards for a touchdown to take a 27-23 lead, then the Patriots immediately answered with Antonio Gibson returning the ensuing kickoff 90 yards for what is technically a game-winning non-offensive touchdown. Drake Maye, who played well, has his first win in a game he finished where the opponent scored more than 3 points, though it did happen on that Gibson return.

But would you have trusted Miami to stop them anyway? Just a bad football team right now and it’s a joke we have to watch them Thursday night against the team they almost never beat (Buffalo).

49ers at Saints: Return of the Mac

For a game with Mac Jones and Spencer Rattler at quarterback, they actually put on one of the best passing shows of the day with both throwing for over 200 yards and 3 touchdowns. That’s something we almost never see in the NFL anymore. Jones didn’t even have George Kittle or Brandon Aiyuk available to him.

But the good news is Jones didn’t have to win the game in the fourth quarter, something he’s horrific at. However, my prediction of a classic Kyle Shanahan blown lead and failed game-winning drive without his QB1 was so close to coming true. The 49ers were up 26-14, but there was Rattler with the ball in a 26-21 game with 2:40 and 94 yards to go for the lead.

The long field was unfortunate as the Saints must not have believed they could mix a run in there on 3rd or 4th-and-1 with the clock racing to the final minute. On 4th-and-1 at his own 42, Rattler was sacked by Bryce Huff and coughed up the ball, ending the threat.

It was another very respectable effort from Rattler against a superior opponent, but he’s gotta finish one of these drives eventually. Now 0-5 at game-winning drives.

Rams at Titans: Patience with Cam Ward

Well, two games in, and it doesn’t really look like Cam Ward is going to have that C.J. Stroud/Jayden Daniels type of rookie season. There were some flashes of brilliance on Sunday as he had another one-score game in the fourth quarter with an opponent favored to be a playoff team, but he’s going to have to work on his pocket presence and sacks after 5 more takedowns this week.

It was the two long sacks last week that knocked them out of field goal range against Denver that were killer. This week, he’s in a 20-16 game and gets a strip-sack by that talented front seven of the Rams, who turned that turnover into a 21-yard touchdown drive with Davante Adams scoring for his new team. Just like that it’s 27-16, and the Titans don’t have the firepower to handle that.

Panthers at Cardinals: The NFC West Stays Perfect (Barely)

The Cardinals, Rams, and 49ers are all 2-0. The Seahawks are 1-0 when they’re not playing one of their division rivals. The whole NFC West is still undefeated outside of the division going into Week 3, but the Cardinals have been playing it rather loosely, letting some bad teams hang around at the end.

I thought Bryce Young was on his way to getting benched again after giving up a fumble touchdown three snaps into the game and the Panthers were still trailing 27-9 with 10:32 left in the game.

But to his credit, Young mounted a comeback and got some big breaks along the way. After scoring a second touchdown in the quarter, the Panthers tried the onside kick with 1:58 left and actually recovered it – a play that’s dipped to a 5% success rate since last year with the new rules You lucky if you get one recovery in your career, so Young couldn’t waste it in a 27-22 game that was suddenly very winnable.

Then he even got another brutal sack that lost 29 yards on fourth down overturned by a defensive holding penalty, so there’s a second huge break after the 2:00 warning. A third break was the roughing the passer to negate a 2nd-and-17 incompletion. Was Arizona really going to blow an 18-point lead in basically half a quarter of work?

But then it all went south with a grounding penalty on Young, and suddenly it’s 2nd-and-20. Then it’s 4th-and-15, and there’s Calais Campbell for the game-clinching sack with 0:26 left. Crisis averted for Arizona after a close call with the Saints last week.

I’m not a believer yet in this team, but if they get to play Mac Jones next week instead of Brock Purdy, and with the Rams in Philly, the Cardinals could be 3-0 an in first place this time next week.

Next week: Just a horrible choice to put the Dolphins in prime time, and it will come with the fawning over Buffalo to boot. Good game to get some work done early that night.  Sunday has Rams-Eagles playoff rematch early on, then I think Broncos-Chargers is where my interest lies at 4:00. Chiefs-Giants on SNF is suddenly much more interesting with the teams trying to avoid 0-3 starts. Saved the best for last with Lions at Ravens on MNF.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 1

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

Earlier this week, I decided my Super Bowl LX pick is Ravens over Packers, and for about 10 hours on Sunday, that looked great. But the Ravens did what they do best by blowing their 8th multi-score lead in the second half of a game since 2022 – three more than any other team in that time.

That 41-40 finish in Buffalo will be the leading candidate for Game of the Year until something can even think of topping it. The game was also dramatically different from the rest of a Week 1 where no other team even scored 35 points until the Bills and Ravens both did it.

This was shaping up to be the lowest-scoring Week 1 in 15 years, though the 81 points here may have saved it from that claim. Still, we had a ton of low-scoring games, which meant a ton of close games as 12 of the 15 games so far (Vikings-Bears pending) had a comeback opportunity with four delivering comeback wins.

It was a fun start to the season, and we still have to see what J.J. McCarthy and Ben Johnson can bring to the NFC North race.

Ravens at Bills: Game of the Week Year with Familiar Ending

Well, I can no longer say we haven’t had a Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson game where both threw the ball really well. But what a massive letdown for the Ravens, who should have been able to get a tiebreaker for home-field advantage by winning this game over a Buffalo team that gets every big game at home this year.

They might get everyone at home in January too after this, and this loss could be the beginning of the end for John Harbaugh in Baltimore.

At some point, you can’t keep doing the same thing over and over and expect different results. That’s the definition of insanity. For whatever reason, Harbaugh’s Ravens blow leads like this more than any team in the NFL, and it wasn’t always like this.

  • The Ravens lost four games with a 15-point lead from 1996-2021, but they have done so four times since 2022 alone (twice to Buffalo).
  • From 2008-17, Harbaugh’s Ravens (Joe Flacco era) were 84-13 (.866) when leading by at least 9 points at any point in the game.
  • From 2018-25, Harbaugh’s Ravens (Lamar Jackson era) are 69-15 (.821) when leading by at least 9 points any point in the game.

That may look like a modest decline, but it’s more pronounced since 2022 when the Ravens are 33-10 (.767) in such games despite being an annual Super Bowl contender each year with great defenses and an MVP-worthy quarterback.

I don’t have the time today to go through all the losses, but I know a common theme has been bad ball security coming back to bite the Ravens. This is what I struggled with when writing the Baltimore preview for 2025. Can we conclude coaching is at fault when players fumble the ball, throw interceptions, muff kicks, drop 2-point conversions, or drop game-sealing interceptions with such frequency in big spots?

No coach, let alone Harbaugh, can grip the ball for these players. There’s only so many ways you can preach ball security in practice, but that doesn’t mean a lick on game day if someone punches the ball out.

It’s not like Harbaugh had Rashod Bateman taking a jet sweep with the Ravens clinging to a one-score lead. That was Derrick Henry, on a monster night for him, who fumbled with 3:10 left, putting the Bills 30 yards away from the end zone and making this comeback doable.

Don’t forget rookie kicker Tyler Loop missed the extra point after Henry’s last touchdown run, which would have made it a 16-point game with 11:42 left. Don’t forget when Awuzie dropped an interception with 10:48 left while the Ravens led 40-25.

Those aren’t on the coach, and things like this happen so frequently to Baltimore in big spots. But Harbaugh is the coach, the common link between these games, so he is going to take the blame.

But you should try to put the blame on spots where coaching has an impact. The Ravens had a poor end of each half, calling a terrible play to Justice Hill out of a timeout in the second quarter that short-circuited a drive where the Ravens kicked a field goal a little sooner than they needed to, leaving some seconds on the play clock.

Buffalo got the ball back and made sure every single one of those last 25 seconds counted. Baltimore played a soft prevent and Allen was able to complete a pass to Kincaid for 22 yards, getting out of bounds with a generous one second left. The Bills kicked a 43-yard field goal, so that was a bad sign of things to come.

Then you go to the last two minutes. Henry fumbled, Buffalo scored, but the Ravens stopped the 2PC to keep a 40-38 lead. The Bills kicked deep, and the Ravens took over with 1:51 left. The Bills still had all three timeouts. In 2025, you have to treat this situation with a 2-point lead as if you were facing a 2-point deficit. That doesn’t mean you’re going to throw risky passes or hurry up to the line to snap it (opponent would use timeouts anyway). But you need to approach it like you need first downs, because the truth is you do.

The Ravens took a conservative approach and it cost them. The run to Zay Flowers on second down was most egregious. Then after a short completion brought up 4th-and-3 at the Baltimore 38, many thought Harbaugh should have gone for it with 1:33 left after Buffalo used its final timeout. It’s 3 yards and you win the game. It would have been the craziest example of this since Bill Belichick did 4th-and-2 at his own 28 in 2009, but is it really that crazy anymore in 2025?

I don’t care if you have the No. 1 defense in the league, which Baltimore clearly isn’t built for right now if this game is any indication. Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, and Ed Reed aren’t in that lineup. But even if you had that defense, you can’t rely on stopping a team from getting into field goal range anymore, and these kickers can make from 60-plus yards now. The game has changed.

Put the ball in Jackson’s hands and let him have a run-pass option. I’d probably give him a 60% chance to convert there, if not higher. Game over if he comes through. But even if he fails, you still have some advantages here with all three timeouts. Maybe you stop Buffalo after 3 snaps and they kick a field goal. Maybe they miss.

Granted, the same thing could have happened. The Bills use several plays to get a couple of first downs and kick a short field goal to win the game 41-40. But at least you would have had the chance on 4th-and-3 to end things on your own terms with the player you believe was robbed of a third MVP.

They didn’t do it, and Harbaugh said he trusted the defense, and he’s going to keep trusting his defense.

If that’s the case, why would we ever trust anything to change with the Ravens? They’re just going to keep making mistakes in big spots. Buffalo has their number. Josh Allen has 5 career wins that are either divisional round playoff games or comebacks of 15+ points, and four of those games are against Baltimore.

Never mind the Kansas City hurdle the Ravens haven’t solved save for one night in 2021 when CEH fumbled in game-winning field goal range. Speaking of fumbles, by recovering Henry’s, the Bills are now +18 in lost fumble recoveries since 2024 and they haven’t lost the turnover battle in 23 games (NFL record). Unreal streak that keeps defying all odds to continue.

Alas, guess what else was different about that 2021 Kansas City win? Harbaugh went for it that night, letting Lamar run on 4th-and-1 at his own 43 with just over a minute left to ice the game.

I guess 1 yard doesn’t scare him as much as 3 yards, but if you’re still coaching scared with Lamar as your quarterback in 2025, maybe someone else needs to be his coach in 2026.

Steelers at Jets: Have a Day, Aaron Rodgers

I thought for sure this would be an ugly game to watch as Steelers openers usually are in the last decade. Then when you consider all the new players, the way Aaron Rodgers and D.K. Metcalf didn’t get any work in the preseason in this new offense, and the revenge game factor for Justin Fields and the Jets, and I was expecting a field goal fest.

Well, it ended up being the shootout of the afternoon as the Steelers’ high-priced defense with several Hall of Fame candidates had no real answers for Fields, who had one of the best games of his career.

After Rodgers took a sack on his opening play, then watched Metcalf drop his first target, it felt like this was going to be a shit-tacular day. But Rodgers impressed me by converting multiple third-and-longs, he still showed great accuracy and arm strength, and he carried this offense on a day where the running game was marginal (54 yards) and the defense was of little help.

Metcalf finished with 83 yards, Jonnu Smith caught a touchdown on a push pass, and it ended up being Jalen Ramsey who delivered the hit stick on Garrett Wilson to secure the win after Chris Boswell drilled a 60-yard field goal that might have been good from 70. Ice cold kick, like a serial killer would make.

My two big stats on Fields have been 0-22 when the opponent scores more than 20 points and 2-18 at 4QC opportunities. Add another loss to each. In fact, I did a live bet on Steelers ML at +370 when they were down 26-17 because I saw them scoring again and keeping that streak alive. Sure enough, the Jets fumbled a kickoff and Rodgers and Boswell delivered.

Fields played very well and was about the last reason the Jets lost this game. But sure enough, when he’s got the ball in the final minute with a chance to go get a field goal to win the game, he can’t beat the pass rush and goes four-and-out. Par for the course for him.

The Jets have now blown 7 fourth-quarter leads going back to last year, the most in the NFL. The offense was far better than expected, but the defense was like nothing ever changed.

And they let Rodgers get the last laugh.

Lions at Packers: On Script

This game was more or less what I expected with Detroit trying to adjust to new coordinators and the Packers feeling hyped about the Micah Parsons trade. Still, I wouldn’t have counted on the Lions to only rush for 46 yards on 22 carries, or for Jared Goff to have one of the least effective 31-for-39 games you’ll ever see.

Jordan Love was strong early to build the lead, and the Packers basically just cruised the rest of the way. Parsons made his impact felt with a sack in the fourth quarter.

It’s a good statement win for the Packers in their quest to reclaim the NFC North. We’ll see where these teams are for the rematch on Thanksgiving (Week 13).

Bengals at Browns: Comical Regression

From my Bengals preview in July:

“However, I’m willing to bet things work out for the Bengals this year, even if it’s by pure, dumb luck. A random bounce going their way with a turnover on defense, a clutch kick going their way for a change, and maybe Burrow will even win a game or two that the Bengals trail in the closing minutes just to spite me.”

It only took one game for several of these things to happen:

  • After the Browns took a 16-14 lead in the third quarter, they were scoreless on their final six drives, never needing more than a field goal on any of them.
  • Joe Flacco’s pass to Battle was deflected off his hands into the Bengals for an interception that put Joe Burrow at the Cleveland 34 where he moved the ball 17 yards for a go-ahead field goal, after getting the offense’s only first down of the second half, and producing a precarious 17-16 lead.
  • At one point in the fourth quarter, Burrow took three consecutive sacks that each lost 6 yards.
  • That helped Cleveland start its ensuing drive at the Cincy 42 with 6:56 left, but kicker Andre Szmyt, in his NFL debut, missed a 36-yard field goal with 2:22 left. He missed the extra point in the third quarter, creating this situation.
  • The Bengals went three-and-out, then Flacco was intercepted again.
  • Flacco got one more chance from his 1-yard line with 19 seconds left, and the clock ran out on the Browns in a tough loss.

The Bengals needed a hotter September start, the defense needed to play better, but let’s hope they didn’t blow all their luck in Week 1 because what the fvck was this performance?

Burrow passed for 113 yards as the offense only finished with 141 yards. Cleveland had 327 yards but failed to score after a good start. The Bengals are the first team since the 2015 Raiders to win a game with under 150 yards of offense and not scoring more than 17 points. The day the pass rush killed Brock Osweiler in Denver.

The Jaguars played some solid defense against Carolina, so I’ll be curious to see how the Bengals fare next week after this absurd game.

49ers at Seahawks: The Catch IV?

Just think of how many great touchdown catches to win playoff games the 49ers have in their history from Dwight Clark to Terrell Owens to Vernon Davis. You’re probably not going to attach “The Catch IV” label to a Week 1 game, but what backup tight end Jake Tonges did in Seattle on Sunday was really cool and memorable.

The 49ers were hurting again. George Kittle, a Seattle serial killer, left the game after a touchdown with a hamstring injury. Jauan Jennings was injured again.  Brandon Aiyuk is still out. The 49ers needed someone to step up as kicker Jake Moody is a bum who missed more kicks in a tight game.

Insert Jake Tonges, who has been in the NFL since 2022 but never registered a receiving target before Sunday. Yet there he was on the game-winning drive, hauling in three passes for 15 yards and snagging away a touchdown with 1:34 left to take a 17-13 lead.

Sam Darnold led some nice comebacks last year for Minnesota, but he was tested here against an elite front. On the day, he managed to throw for 124 of his 150 yards to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the clear WR1 in Seattle with Tyler Lockett (Titans) and D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) gone.

But after finding JSN for 40 yards, Darnold was 9 yards away from the end zone before Nick Bosa stripped him of the ball and the 49ers recovered to seal it for new (but returning) defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. It’s exactly the kind of game the 49ers were losing last year, so it’s a positive sign they got this one in the win column.

Dolphins at Colts: Another Day Closer to Death Indeed

Yeah, Mike McDaniel isn’t seeing October at this rate. Falling behind 30-0 and allowing Daniel Jones to score on all seven of his possessions is nasty work. But it’d be different if the offense was at least competitive. Instead, Tua Tagovailoa had arguably the worst game of his career with three turnovers and a 2.7 QBR. He just had no success against a Colts defense that lacks stars.

Daniel Jones being this year’s Sam Darnold would be something, but until further notice, this probably had a lot to do with how inept the Dolphins are right now. But I did say the Colts had a solid roster, quarterback aside, and rookie tight end Tyler Warren came as advertised with 79 yards on 8 touches.

Buccaneers at Falcons: Is Michael Penix the MUPE (Most Unlucky Player Ever)?

When Bijan Robinson took that short pass 50 yards for a touchdown in the game’s opening minutes, I thought we’d be getting the shootout these teams had in Atlanta last year when Kirk Cousins threw for over 500 yards.

But this was a surprisingly defensive battle. The Atlanta pass rush showed it was improved and got after Baker Mayfield frequently, causing him to barely average over 5.0 yards per attempt. He even ended up leading the game in rushing (39 yards) after Bucky Irving (14 carries for 37 yards) and Robinson (12 for 24 yards) were contained on the ground. I’d say the Bucs missed Liam Coen calling the offense, but it’s also a tough division game.

Special teams were really feast or famine for both teams in this one. But the Falcons were down 17-13 in the fourth quarter when they went on an epic march of 91 yards in 18 plays with plenty of penalties, two replay reversals, and do-overs for an Atlanta offense that struggled to close drives. Eventually, Michal Penix showed great scrambling ability and athleticism to stretch out for a 4-yard touchdown run on 4th-and-goal with 2:17 left to take a 20-17 lead.

But Mayfield finally found a rhythm and threw a 25-yard touchdown pass to Emeka Egbuka with 59 seconds left for the rookie’s second score of the game. However, kicker Chase McLaughlin missed the extra point, a huge one that kept it a 23-20 game instead of making the Falcons need a touchdown in a minute. Just huge.

Penix, with his two timeouts, did a really nice job of getting the team in range, but the drive eventually stalled once he was out of timeouts and had to play against the clock in addition to the defense. Still, a 44-yard field goal should be very makeable for any kicker today, and Younghoe Koo has generally been a good kicker.

But to send this game to overtime, Koo was wide right with 0:02 left and that’s how the Bucs held on for this big NFC South win. Circle this one.

I’ve said for years how Tom Brady was never the GOAT but always the LOAT, the Luckiest of All Time. Well, we should try to figure out which quarterback deserves the title of the unluckiest of all time, and since UOAT is an ugly acronym, I was thinking we could use “MUPE” to stand for Most Unlucky Player Ever.

I’d also workshop these ideas:

  • DUP – Doomed Unluckiest Player
  • DUPE – Doomed Unluckiest Player Ever
  • MOAT – Misfortune of All Time

Penix has only started four games in the NFL, but he’s gone 0-3 in the last three starts with these things happening:

  • Led a game-tying touchdown drive vs. Washington before his kicker missed a 56-yard game-winning field goal and his defense allowed a game-winning touchdown drive in overtime where he never touched the ball.
  • Led two game-tying touchdown drives in fourth quarter vs. Carolina before his defense allowed game-winning touchdown in an overtime where he never saw the ball again.
  • Led a go-ahead touchdown drive with 2:17 left before the defense gave up the lead, then his kicker missed a 44-yard field goal that would have forced overtime.

This might be on brand for the Falcons as a franchise historically, but this is still a lot to take for a 3-game sample. We’ll see if Minnesota adds to Penix’s woes in prime time next week.

Texans at Rams: Puka Is Always Open

14-9? Okay, where’s the other half of scoring? That’s it?

It was a game where each team had nine possessions, but the Texans never found the end zone and the Rams had their share of struggles. But credit to the Rams for forcing some huge takeaways, including a late fumble by Houston’s Dare Ogunbowale just as he crossed into the red zone with 1:43 left.

One thing the Rams can always count on is Puka Nacua getting open and making the catch. He finished with 10 catches for 130 yards while Davante Adams had 4 catches for 51 yards in his team debut. It’s easy to see who is still clearly WR1 here.

Giants at Commanders: August Is Not Real

Yeah, I should have seen this one coming before still taking the over. The 2025 Giants had the most prolific passing offense of the 21st century in the preseason when they averaged 345.0 passing yards and 35.7 points per game.

But that’s August, that’s fool’s gold. Sure enough, in Week 1 of a game that counts, the Giants scored 6 points and had 157 net passing yards in Russell Wilson’s debut. Brian Daboll is already getting asked if he’s committing to Wilson as his starter for Week 2 after the Giants punted on six of their nine drives.

Throw in that brutal schedule and we’ll see rookie Jaxson Dart start games down the line. Maybe sooner than later.

But it could have been a little smoother for Washington, which botched the end-of-half drive where a grounding penalty ran out the clock in the red zone. Then they had to punt their first three drives in the second half. But Jayden Daniels still found his way to 21 points, keeping the scoring streak alive in Washington, after Deebo Samuel stamped off a great game with a touchdown run to give him 96 yards from scrimmage on eight touches.

We’ll get a real litmus test for Washington against the Packers this Thursday night. But clearly, the preseason is no litmus test for anything in the NFL. The Giants still stink offensively under Daboll.

Raiders at Patriots: Favored in 11 Games, Eh?

There were some bad performances in Week 1, but I think the Patriots have to rank among the worst because of what it does to expectations this season. This team was somehow favored to win 11 games when the betting lines came out in May. Their preseason win total was still O/U 8.5, but they were favored in 11 individual games, which always felt way too high for this team.

But if you can’t beat the Raiders at home, you might not be even sniffing 8 wins this year. Could anyone actually tell if Mike Vrabel was coaching the team on Sunday? Was that just Jerod Mayo with Druski’s excellent makeup team making him look like Vrabel?

This was a bad performance. The Patriots shut down Ashton Jeanty (19 carries for 38 yards and a short touchdown), but Geno Smith shredded them for 362 yards with many big completions. He converted a 3rd-and-20 late in the game while the Pats still trailed 20-10, which was a dagger.

New England’s offense put the ball in Drake Maye’s hands 54 times, but all he could produce was 13 points on 11 drives. One missed field goal isn’t doing that many favors. The Patriots are going to have to play much better than this or they won’t stray far from the 4-13 record they’ve had the last two years.

Titans at Broncos: Looked Like Two Rookie Debuts at Quarterback

It may not mean a thing, but I think Denver blew a golden opportunity to establish some fear in the AFC West that this could be the team’s year. They were an 8.5-point home favorite against a flawed Titans team starting rookie quarterback Cam Ward in his NFL debut.

But this was a dogfight for 60 minutes in large part because Bo Nix played like he was a rookie in his first game. The Nix who struggled last September showed up again as he threw a couple of picks and couldn’t sustain drives.

Fortunately, the Denver defense was legitimate. The Titans scored 12 points on four field goal drives that covered a grand total of 65 yards. That’s impressive defense. Even when Marvin Mims muffed a punt in the fourth quarter that gave the Titans a great chance to take the lead in a 13-12 game, the Denver defense sacked Ward for 27 yards on consecutive plays to knock them out of range.

That’s when the running backs took over with rookie R.J. Harvey showing off his speed on a 50-yard run, then veteran J.K. Dobbins scored from 19 yards out. I’m surprised Sean Payton later didn’t go for a 54-yard field goal to make it 23-12 and cover the spread. But he watched Nix throw incomplete on 4th-and-8 instead. Weird.

But the defense came up with one more stop, including a strip-sack on fourth down as Ward went down six times in an expectedly rough debut. Still, the scoreboard should have been much worse for the Titans.

Cardinals at Saints: Bland Jerseys Prevail Against Power Rangers

This was a bland game to look at with the Cardinals’ jerseys looking like they were waiting to be filled in with more red. I don’t know how much Kyler Murray was feeling under the weather with a reported illness, but he only threw for 163 yards and took 5 sacks as the Cardinals were never able to blow this one open against what is expected to be one of the worst teams this season.

But behind Spencer Rattler, the Saints found themselves in a 20-13 game late with a reasonable situation to tie or take the late lead on a 2-point conversion. But punching the ball in from the red zone was something Rattler struggled with on the final two drives. He ended up throwing three straight incompletions from the Arizona 18 to end the upset attempt.

The Saints actually finished with more first downs and yards than the Cardinals in a respectable debut for rookie coach Kellen Moore. But they’ll have to clean some things up after 13 penalties for 89 yards.

Panthers at Jaguars: Generational Weather Delay

You had a lot of “generational talent” on display in this game with two No. 1 picks at quarterback and Travis Hunter made his NFL debut. But Bryce Young might be in danger of getting benched after Week 2 for the second year in a row because this was bad just like much of his early career starts.

The 26-10 final doesn’t even do it justice because he tried to get the pass away on a fourth down in the fourth quarter that was returned 75 yards for a pick-six, but he got bailed out by a holding penalty and threw a touchdown on the next play. This could have easily been 30-3 with Jacksonville not even playing close to their best (or so it seems).

But the running game was strong (200 yards) for coach Liam Coen’s debut, and the defense obviously took care of business before and after the hour-long lightning delay. We’ll keep following the Travis Hunter story, but he finished playing 45 snaps (39 offense, 6 defense). That’s not a high number at all, but I guess they’re easing him in slowly.

Still, I would have thought him being a full-time corner and a part-time receiver in certain packages (hurry up, end of halves, third downs) made the most sense. Reportedly this is a fluid situation they’ll adjust for opponent. Guess we’ll just have to see what they’re cooking here for the coach I picked to win the AFC South and Coach of the Year award.

Next week: Really solid TNF with Commanders-Packers, but we’ll see Monday night how exciting Vikings-Falcons might be on SNF. Don’t like the MNF double-header happening (TB-HOU, LV-LAC), but at least it looks like the games aren’t overlapping this time. Sunday afternoon is really all about the Super Bowl rematch as Patrick Mahomes tries to avoid the first 3-game losing streak of his career.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Wild Card Weekend

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

No matter what an NFL team does for 18 weeks, no matter how much work you put into reviewing their season and predicting their playoff fate, sometimes a pick parade happens, and you end up with the first 32-12 final in NFL history.

That goofy result in Houston, during their annual Bill O’Brien Saturday Afternoon Invitational, was a harbinger of the weekend to come with one-sided games won by the home team up until Sunday night when we finally got some drama courtesy of Jayden Daniels and the misadventures in snaps from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

There’s still a Monday night game between the Vikings and Rams to come, but it wasn’t the most exciting wild card weekend. That’s for sure. The Commanders-Bucs game was the only one of the five games with a second-half lead change. The only one with a comeback opportunity. The only one where both teams scored more than 14 points.

But I guess a lot of the paper tigers and heavily flawed teams have been eliminated, so we’re still on track for a good divisional round.  

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Commanders at Buccaneers: The Best Rookie Quarterback Season Ever

When Jayden Daniels scored a garbage-time touchdown run in Tampa Bay in Week 1 to produce a 37-20 final, I loved it because it allowed me to hit an improbable SGP where I had Daniels and Mike Evans both scoring two touchdowns.

Little did I know that score would keep alive a streak where the Commanders have scored at least 18 points in all 18 games this season, the 12th team in NFL history to do that, and they have a chance to become just the third to do it in 19 games as their season will continue another week after winning yet another close game in Tampa Bay this time.

After that garbage-time touchdown run by Daniels in Week 1, he made some unique history against the Giants in Week 2 when he led his offense to 7 field goals on 7 drives, the only game in NFL history like that. But Week 3 in Cincinnati was the game where I was truly sold on the kid after he put up 38 points on six drives, scoring every time he had the ball. Then he scored his first two drives in Arizona, meaning 16 straight scoring drives when you exclude kneeldowns. No known streak in NFL history by one quarterback exceeds that.

Then even when Daniels lost a game in Baltimore against a contender, I was still impressed with the way he handled himself, throwing for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns, and he led his team in rushing with 22 yards that day as little help was provided. He had no turnovers.

Then the Hail Mary happened against Chicago, and while that’s a lucky play to get the tip, his ability to manufacture that drive, get it close enough, and extend the play long enough to pull that off was impressive. The rib injury may have slowed him down for a few weeks there, but after the bye week, he’s been very good and leading his team like a veteran with several more clutch game-winning drives like the efforts against the Eagles and Falcons.

I think Daniels had arguably the best regular season ever for a rookie quarterback when you consider he threw for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, and rushed for 891 yards and 6 more scores to lead his team in rushing. That’s the kind of dual-threat season that only Lamar Jackson has pulled off this year, and at least he has Derrick Henry to help him out now. Daniels has often been the leading rusher in games for his team, and it happened again in his first playoff game.

But I think this road playoff win is also the cherry on top for giving him the edge over the likes of Ben Roethlisberger (2004), Dak Prescott (2016), and C.J. Stroud (2023) for the best rookie quarterback season ever.

Daniels just played a playoff game where his offense never punted and never turned the ball over, the kind of feat only Peyton Manning (2003 vs. Chiefs) and Josh Allen (2021 vs. Patriots) have achieved in the postseason. Granted, the Commanders turned it over on downs twice, but they also converted a few times that led to huge touchdowns that were the difference in the game.

There were only seven possessions for each team in this game, so mistakes were going to get magnified. Unfortunately for Baker Mayfield, a fumble is going to be the play people remember best from this game. The Bucs were up 17-13 and got the ball back after holding the Commanders on 4th-and-goal. I also mean literally holding as it sure looked like DPI should have been called on the Bucs for how they grabbed Zach Ertz in the end zone.

But right after Mike Evans made a great stretch effort to get a first down, the Bucs got cute with a little trickery in the backfield and the timing of the play was off, resulting in a fumbled snap that the Commaders recovered and used to go 13 yards for the go-ahead touchdown after Daniels found Terry McLaurin on a 4th-and-2.

What a crushing play and I really don’t think they needed to do something like that. I’m not sure if the plan was to hand it off or fake the handoff, but they screwed it up. Then with the chance to take the lead, the Bucs screwed that up too with Baker getting stopped on a run, setting up a 3rd-and-1 where the center’s snap timing was off, resulting in a 2-yard loss. Another snap disaster for the Bucs.

With 4:45 left, I can understand the rationale from Todd Bowles for the game-tying field goal on 4th-and-3 at the 14. You like to think you’ll get the ball back with four clock stoppages left. I don’t hate the decision to kick it, but maybe we have to start recognizing Daniels in that Patrick Mahomes kind of light as someone you simply don’t want to have the ball last.

Sure enough, Daniels was able to burn the last 4:41 while putting his team in range for an easy field goal. He used his arms and legs to get the job done. I don’t think Bowles made the best use of his timeouts either. It was going to be a 37-yard field goal by Washington as the final play of regulation, so barely longer than an extra point.

But when they showed this clip of kicker Zane Gonzalez constantly rubbing his hair as some sort of pre-kick ritual, I thought for sure this goofy MFer was going to blow the kick.

The truth is he kind of did, because the kick hit the upright only to get the favorable bounce through to send the Commanders to the divisional round for the first time since the 2005 season and to send the Buccaneers home after a crushing home loss.

Tampa will be stewing all offseason over some of those decisions like the fumbled snaps and kicking the field goal. As for Washington, this is what happens when you find the right quarterback in the draft. Daniels had a historic playoff debut, because the history of rookie quarterbacks on the road in the postseason is brutal.

In nearly 30 chances from all rookies in NFL history, Daniels joins just Sammy Baugh (the original Washington legend) from 1937 as the only rookies to win on the road while throwing for 200 yards, while throwing more than one touchdown pass, and while beating a team that actually scored more than 14 points as most rookies who in (Mark Sanchez/Joe Flacco variety) on the road in the playoffs do it on the back of a dominant defense. That’s not a multi-stat qualifier. Those are three different things where he joins Baugh as the only quarterbacks to do, and they did them all in the same game.

Daniels is “just built different” as they say these days. Washington will have its shot to shock the Lions in Detroit next.

Packers at Eagles: I Like Detroit Even More for the Super Bowl

This was the only game I predicted to be decided by double digits this weekend. I had the Eagles winning by 11 and they won by 12, so close enough. But what a terrible game to watch, and it was bad from the start when the Packers fumbled the opening kickoff. They definitely fumbled, but in a rare case, we had a close-up shot of the players fighting for the ball and what looked like a pretty decent recovery effort by the Packers to get it back:

At what point can you say the play is long over, the Packer has the ball, and is down by contact? I think that was a garbage call to say “the play stands” and give the Eagles the ball there. That was a huge call too as the Eagles needed that short field (28 yards) to get their early touchdown, because the offense was not good.

I don’t know if it was the concussion or what had Jalen Hurts out of sorts, but he was 6/13 for 39 yards at halftime despite the Eagles feeding him three turnovers from the Packers. Unfortunately, Jordan Love and the Packers couldn’t take advantage of that slow start from the passing game for Philly that saw A.J. Brown catch one ball for 10 yards and get some reading in on the sideline.

Injuries also hurt the Packers dearly as they lost multiple offensive linemen and wide receivers in this game after Christian Watson already tore his ACL last week. That’s how you end up with Bo Melton and “Malik Heath” as the targets on some of your most important plays of the season. I was waiting for Jeff Janis to show up.

In the second half, every slight answer by the Packers was met by the Eagles. A Green Bay field goal to make it 10-3 was met immediately by Dallas Goedert going off for a 24-yard touchdown that included three stiff arms of the same defender (Carrington Valentine), who might need to change his name now to avoid the shame of that highlight for Goedert.

Josh Jacobs played hard in his playoff debut for the Packers and ran hard for a great run to set up a touchdown that made it 16-10 with nearly a whole quarter to play. But instead of the defense stepping up, it let the Eagles burn half the quarter with one Tush Push along the way for a field goal that made it 19-10.

Love didn’t play well at all, but I thought his 4th-and-3 pass would have been a routine catch by a player like Romeo Doubs or Jayden Reed if they were healthy and in the game instead of Heath, who landed out of bounds with 5:03 left to end the last real threat. The Packers also were undisciplined and picked up a few silly 15-yard flags for late hits on Saquon Barkley, who was fine with a 100-yard game he only clinched in garbage time with the game wrapped up.

Actually, Love’s interception in the end zone at the 2-minute warning was some pretty blatant DPI on the Eagles, and that should have set up a first-and-goal at the 1. But the Packers already felt so defeated in a 22-10 game where they were down to one timeout that no one seemed to mind the missed call.

The Packers (11-7) finish this season getting swept by the Lions, Vikings, and Eagles as they just couldn’t beat the elite teams they were able to defeat in 2023. That’s a good formula for a one-and-done season as the No. 7 seed.

I guess we should assume the Eagles will play better than this in the rest of the playoffs, but if I’m Detroit, I don’t fear this team one bit. Not after this game.

Broncos at Bills: Sean Payton, You Tease

If you told me the Broncos wouldn’t score another point after their opening drive, I wouldn’t have believed it. Bo Nix was abandoned again by his running game, put in terrible situations all day by Sean Payton’s offense, and yet he still delivered a third-and-8 conversion and a beautiful 43-yard touchdown strike to Tony Franklin to start the game.

Maybe that should have been a warning sign that this wouldn’t be sustainable offense, but I thought it was an incredible start that showed Nix is ready for the big moment. Unfortunately, the Broncos wasted their fake punt by not going anywhere after it, then they had the loudest field goal miss I ever heard before halftime that should have made it 10-10, a spot they had to feel very comfortable with given the way their defense was getting shredded by Buffalo’s ground game and great offensive line.

But I think the game was largely lost for Denver in the second and third quarters between the weak play calls on early downs where Payton was trying to protect Nix by only making his job harder in having to convert third-and-longs.

In the third quarter, Denver went three-and-out twice with Nix only getting to drop back on third down when he needed 5 and 11 yards. That’s rubbish, and his receivers could have been better with their hands after some big drops in the game.

But the crucial drive came when Buffalo was up 13-7 in the third. Josh Allen threw a hospital ball to running back Ray Davis, which led him to a big hit that knocked him out of the game. That should have brought up third-and-13, but instead it is an automatic first down because of the flag for unnecessary roughness. The NFL made this switch years ago, and I still hate it every single time and say it shouldn’t be a penalty. The flag didn’t stop the hit, which only happened because of a terrible Allen throw that led his back right into contact.

The defender even pulled up and led with the shoulder, so he didn’t go for a helmet-to-helmet hit. I hate the way the offense gets these calls now. Later on that drive, the Bills faced a 4th-and-1. Allen scrambled for almost 7 seconds before throwing to the back of the end zone for Ty Johnson, another talented back in this offense who has done damage as a receiver. He somehow was able to keep his knee in bounds (or close enough on replay) before his foot touched out of bounds for a huge 24-yard touchdown.

I’ve said this is the difference in Buffalo this year and should share some of those numbers this week. Allen’s passes to targets in the backfield are having a huge impact since the Bills use these players down the field in mismatches. In fact, you’d be surprised how much production out of backfield targets goes to helping a quarterback win MVP. Those plays are a huge boost.

Then the Bills blew the game open on the first play of the fourth quarter when terrible tackling led to a 55-yard touchdown for Curtis Samuel to make it 28-7. Game over. The Bills held the ball for 41:43 as the Broncos couldn’t sustain offense and couldn’t slow down their running attack.

In the end, I think you have to say the Denver defense was a paper tiger this year. Patrick Surtain II might still win DPOY but not sure he had any real impact in this game. The Broncos had their worst games of the season defensively on the road against teams like the Bills, Chargers, Bengals, and Ravens, who all scored 30+. Even their 16-14 loss in Kansas City will go down as their sixth-worst game of the season in defensive EPA.

Tampa Bay was really the only qualify offense this defense slowed down this year, so that’s a disappointing way to end the season. But Payton needs to show more trust in Nix than he did in this game. He won’t be able to use the rookie excuse next time.

Steelers at Ravens: The Standard Continues

If I just started pasting in paragraphs from past articles about Pittsburgh playoff losses, would anyone even notice? They do the same thing every time, after all. This one from four years ago after they fell behind 28-0 to the Browns and lost has a lot of the same things I could go over for Saturday night’s 28-14 loss in Baltimore.

What really changed this time? Oh, there weren’t any turnovers in the game. I guess that’s an improvement on offense where they didn’t give up return scores or easy field position. Then again, I liked the fight the offense showed in some of those losses with Roethlisberger at quarterback instead of the pathetic no-show in the first half when they punted four times Saturday.

But let’s be clear. Russell Wilson was not the issue, and Justin Fields sure as hell wouldn’t have done any better in a game they were going to have to score a lot of points to win. The problem is Wilson has limitations and there’s no way you’re winning games like this with him at this stage of his career.

But the Steelers aren’t winning games like this with Mike Tomlin’s defense, which continues to be on the worst run in playoff history. That’s now six straight playoff games allowing 28+ points. No other team has more than four such games. That’s 230 points allowed in six playoff games, also a record.

The Steelers were 10-3 and ended this year with five straight wire-to-wire losses. That’s pathetic. They couldn’t even take a 3-0 lead in any of these games.

On Saturday night, they took their historically-bad playoff defense up against Lamar Jackson’s historically underperforming playoff offense, and Jackson won the matchup by halftime with a 21-0 lead and over 200 total yards from offense with his arm and legs. Derrick Henry also crucified them on the ground, and Lamar was making the Steelers look silly with the zone-read option, 2012’s trendiest offensive wrinkle in the NFL. T.J. Watt looked like he’s never defended it in his life, constantly crashing in on Henry while Lamar still had the ball. Amateur hour.

I’d say more, but what’s the point? It’s the same shit every year and nothing ever changes in Pittsburgh. It’s the worst form of NFL purgatory where you have no chance at a high draft pick, and you have no real shot to win a playoff game. Rinse and repeat. Best thing I can say is the fans were so uninterested in this game that even they weren’t taking the bait that this time would be any different.

If you start losing the fans, if you start being met with apathy, that should finally cause a shake-up with who is running this team. But until they fire Tomlin and find their next visionary coach, the standard is going to be the standard.

Chargers at Texans: Chargering Is Unstoppable

“It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead.”

That’s Kyle Reese warning Chargers fans about the curse of Chargering placed on their team. I thought Jim Harbaugh would fix it, but even he couldn’t overcome it in a playoff loss that stands to be more embarrassing than the blown 27-0 lead in Jacksonville.

At least in Jacksonville, I can say the 27-0 lead was unearned, propped up by short fields from an absurd number of takeaways before the defense blew it by playing a terrible half, and a kicker missing a 40-yard field goal that should have been enough.

But this time? I never would have believed Justin Herbert would implode like this. Not after he came out dealing with a backup tight end snatching a pass for 15 yards on the opening drive. This was going to be a vintage Herbert game. Instead, it’s the game that’s going to keep him out of every top quarterback discussion until he proves he can perform in the playoffs.

Sure, there were flaws as the short-yardage running game was terrible, Quentin Johnston predictably failed to catch a single ball in his playoff debut, and the lack of polished receivers after Ladd McConkey (he was incredible) proved to be a disaster for the Chargers.

But a lot of this was on Herbert too. After C.J. Stroud threw a pick, Herbert immediately negated it by tossing his first, forcing a deep ball on the next snap. He threw just 3 interceptions all year, and while that was always likely to regress against a high-pressure, high-takeaway defense, you don’t expect him to throw the most interceptions of his pro football career in this game.

The crusher came late in the third quarter when Herbert’s pass for McConkey was too high and intercepted for a touchdown to put the Chargers behind 20-6. Then Will Dissly dropped and deflected a pass that should have been caught for Herbert’s third pick. That one wasn’t his fault, but a lot of damage had already been done. He added a fourth pick in garbage time when it was 32-12.

But what a disastrous game as the Texans were struggling to get things going for most of the half only to still find themselves leading 10-6 at halftime. That should have been the first sign this was going to go south for the Chargers. They watched Stroud get away with an intentional grounding penalty in the end zone for a probable safety, then a bad snap led to a big play that sparked that 99-yard touchdown drive.

Then they take away a pick from Derwin James in the third quarter in the end zone that leads to a Houston field goal. Not great. That all led up to the pick parade, but the pass rush also amped up on Herbert once the Texans had some confidence they were going to win this game. Herbert was creamed in the fourth quarter.

Even after an 86-yard touchdown to McConkey, the Chargers made history by having their extra point blocked, Dicker the Kicker knocked it down instead of recovering the live ball, and the Texans returned it for the first ever defensive 2-point return in NFL playoff history to make it 25-12. Yep, that’s Chargers BINGO at that point.

This is the worst loss for the Chargers since losing that AFC divisional round game to the Mark Sanchez-led Jets in 2009. It might even be worse than that since it’s a game that shows Herbert and Harbaugh aren’t above results like this, and the Chargers are still not ready to overtake the Chiefs in the AFC West.

It really puts the Chargers in a bad spot where their best hope is to be a wild card team that is prone to having a brutal loss in the first round. I just went over that with Pittsburgh, so I can tell you it’s not a fun spot to be in at all for a fan.

See it for enough years and you just lose interest. Apathy sets in. Hope is such a better product to sell fans, because for a franchise that’s never won a Super Bowl, all they know is hope and potential.

But right now, it’s hard to see what hope the Chargers have that doesn’t simply include Andy Reid and Travis Kelce deciding to retire in a month, Bo Nix being a fraud, the Raiders hiring another bum QB/coach duo, and finding Herbert another great receiver to pair with McConkey.

Even then, Chargering just feels inevitable for this team. You can’t escape it.

Next week: It’s my favorite playoff round, but that doesn’t always mean the games will be great. Hard to not top this week, though. You can expect research on playoff rest with the Chiefs having an extended break here before they face Houston. Commanders-Lions is a fresh matchup that should be great for the offenses on Saturday night. I think Vikings-Rams at Eagles has dud written all over it, but we’ll see. Then the most hyped game of the year to this point will be Ravens at Bills. Early prediction: It won’t be a QB-driven shootout. They almost never are when they’re hyped this way, but I have all weak to explain that one.

NFL 2024 Wild Card Predictions: Legacy Shaping Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We’ve made it to the NFL playoffs and I really like this wild card slate since I don’t think any game is close to a sure thing no matter what the spreads say. Every NFC game is a rematch and we have another AFC North game between the Steelers and Ravens that I think could change the trajectory of those franchises as the 2nd-biggest game in Steelers-Ravens history after the 2008 AFC Championship Game.

Friday also saw the AP release the All-Pro teams, and the big news was Lamar Jackson getting 30 votes to 18 for Josh Allen (2 for Joe Burrow) for the first-team All-Pro quarterback selection. Unless the AP wants to reverse decades of voting standards, that should mean that Jackson will win his third MVP.

Maybe common sense won out, but I’ll just add that this only increases the pressure on Lamar to perform Saturday night. You can’t be going one-and-done as a 9.5-point home favorite to a reeling Steelers team and expect to ever get another MVP nod or have your regular seasons taken seriously.

This Week’s Articles

NFL 2024 Wild Card Predictions

I guess in the past I used to do longer previews here, but since I’ve already covered all six games other places this week, I’m just ready to recap some last second thoughts and give my final score predictions here.

Chargers at Texans (+3)

Late-night thought: Remember when Alex Smith had the game of his life (299 yards, 3 TD) in his first playoff game under Jim Harbaugh against the 2011 Saints? Remember when Colin Kaepernick had the game of his life (263 passing yards, QB record 181 rushing yards) in his first playoff game under Harbaugh against the 2012 Packers? That’d be pretty cool if Justin Herbert put on a masterpiece performance for his first NFL playoff win under Harbaugh’s guidance this afternoon.

I think the potential is there if his tackles hold up against those talented edge rushers. If you block Houston, you can pick that defense apart, which is why I like Ladd McConkey to have a big game and score in his playoff debut.

Still, I think we might be underrating Houston in the sense that they shouldn’t be expected to get crushed 31-2 like they did against the Ravens on Christmas. Between that game and 34-7 in Minnesota, they’ve had those blowouts on their resume, but this team despite all the flaws has played the Packers, Chiefs, and Lions tough this year while also beating Buffalo.

Throw in the Chargers being cursed, and it wouldn’t shock me at all to see a one-score game late. The Chargers have looked very good down the stretch but the Texans aren’t the Patriots and Raiders, and the Texans also won in this spot last year against a favored Cleveland team while their receivers outside of Nico Collins were injured.

I think it’ll be a decent game and I’m still going to trust the Chargers to pull through and win it. I like that the Chargers have yet to allow more than 20 points on the road all season long, which is getting to be one of the longest streaks in modern NFL history. It’s also a much better story to write about next week if they get to face the Chiefs for a third time.

Final: Chargers 27, Texans 20

Steelers at Ravens (-9.5)

Like I said above, I think this game could really have a huge butterfly effect on where these franchises head next. The loser could very well be on the fast track to firing their long-time head coach. If the Ravens win, it could even propel them to a Super Bowl run (finally).

The Steelers have basically repeated the 2016 AFC Championship Game in every playoff game since, so I’m over this team being anywhere near competent this time of year. They come in on a 4-game losing streak, only the third NFL playoff team to do that, and it’s hard to see things getting better here. Their saving grace is past success against Baltimore, intimate knowledge of the Ravens, (third meeting since 11/17), Zay Flowers (knee) is out, and the defense has already held this offense to its worst game of 2024.

And then there’s the Lamar Jackson playoff effect. He has to turn that around this season, but the fact that he’s admitted to being too amped up for past games and that it’s in his head this week doesn’t give me the greatest hope that he’s going to get it done.

But losing this game would be the worst yet as the Ravens are playing much better football than the Steelers, they have the No. 1 defense since Week 11 again, and I can’t stress this enough: the Steelers have allowed 31+ points in 5 straight playoff games. No other team has done that in three games. The standard is the standard.

I’ll knock the scoring down a peg out of respect for the rivalry, but I think the line is spot on.

Final: Ravens 27, Steelers 17

Broncos at Bills (-8.5)

I already got into it with my multiple previews for this game about Buffalo’s turnover regression that should happen during the playoffs. They have just 8 giveaways all year and no one but Josh Allen has lost a fumble. They’re +14 in fumble recoveries, tied for the 2nd-best out of 798 teams since 2000. Turnovers (4 of them) are why they lost to Denver at home a year ago on a Monday night. It’s the easiest, most logical way for Denver to get the upset edge here.

But I also think Bo Nix has done a good job of scoring points down the stretch and I expect Denver to exploit some things in a Buffalo defense that relies on turnovers (again, regression there too) to get the job done.

At the end of the day, I still can’t pick the rookie quarterback on the No. 7 seed on the road in an early body clock game against an experienced playoff team. But if Skylar Thompson can lose a playoff game in Buffalo by 3 points, then I think Denver can do it too.

Final: Bills 27, Broncos 24

Packers at Eagles (-4.5)

It’s Tom Brady calling a game for FOX, so it’s going to be a boring rout, right? Or does he only do that for Dallas games? Either way, I’m not overly thrilled with this one because I think the Packers have disappointed in every big game this season, and they were my Super Bowl pick before the year, mind you. They already lost to the Eagles in Brazil on a poor field. I guess there’s some drama with how Jalen Hurts will look after a few weeks out with a concussion, but he has so much talent around him that I don’t think he has to be great to win here. Just don’t offer up all those turnover opportunities like in Week 1.

Jordan Love’s elbow might be a bigger question mark. I think that could bother him in challenging a very good coverage unit. I don’t think they can rely on Jacobs as reliably as the Eagles could with Saquon.

Final: Eagles 27, Packers 16

Commanders at Buccaneers (-3)

Another Week 1 rematch, I think it goes to Tampa Bay again as the Commanders don’t have enough defense to slow down the Bucs, and I think Jayden Daniels is going to end up leading his team in rushing again as a one-man show. It’s just really hard to win in the playoffs on the road with a rookie quarterback without an elite defense. But if anyone can make this a shootout and have a chance at the end, Daniels could make this interesting.

Final: Buccaneers 30, Commanders 23

Vikings at Rams (+2.5)

I like my standalone preview for this game that tells the story of why this should be different for Minnesota from Week 8, why I still want to trust Sam Darnold to figure it out, and why I am worried that Matthew Stafford has turned into a Puka Nacua merchant in the last month and isn’t putting up yards or points.

The game moving to Arizona because of the fires is the final piece for why I like the Vikings to get the win this time.

Final: Vikings 23, Rams 17

There was a lot of playoff research I didn’t get around to this week as I learned it’s just so much work to try recapping the regular season and preparing for six playoff games in 5 days. But I’m hoping to get to it in the coming weeks.

There will be a Part 5 of the LOAT series (Mahomes vs. Brady) during the playoffs. I think I might have to wait until after the divisional round to do it instead of this coming week though.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 18

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The conclusion of Week 18 in the NFL means it’s time I reflect on my preseason predictions. Let’s just say I’m not feeling great at all about my Super Bowl pick (Packers over Chiefs), but at least the Packers and Texans, two teams I hyped up, are in the tournament. You never know.

But I seem to have continued my troubling pattern of being way off on my picks every other year. I was off by an average of 2.88 wins this season, my worst since I started tracking this in 2013.

2024 NFL Predictions

In my defense, I bet a lot of people were thrown by some of the 10-win teams this season as the Vikings (14-3), Commanders (12-5), and Broncos (10-7) all blew away expectations with rookie quarterbacks and a career year from Sam Darnold. I picked the Commanders and Vikings specifically to finish 4-13, so that accounts for a lot of the disparities.

Then I was also done in by some of the most disappointing teams this season like the 49ers and Jets, who both blew a lot of leads in games they should have won this year. They blew 10 leads between them with the Jets (6) leading the league in that category with a way too dramatic season with Aaron Rodgers getting people fired.

It ended up being a top-heavy season with seven teams winning 12+ games, including four teams winning 14+ games. Helping to balance things, we had 10 teams lose 12+ games, so there were a lot of poor teams too. That’s probably going to lead to a real balancing act in 2025 where more teams should move closer to .500, so it’ll be important not to overreact to some of these records.

As for Week 18, the early slate produced some unexpected close games, the late slate was devoid of any real drama, and Sunday night was a bummer because of Sam Darnold’s awful game. In all, we had 9 games with a comeback opportunity.

For the last time this season, let’s run through a recap of all 32 teams in their final game of 2024.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Vikings at Lions: The New Year’s Ghost

It took 18 weeks, 17 games, and the 272nd and final game of the regular season before the worst nightmare for Minnesota fans became reality. On the big stage with the No. 1 seed on the line, Sam Darnold was seeing ghosts and shitting his pants.

People are going to see a 31-9 final score and just chalk it up as a Detroit blowout, but this was Minnesota’s game for the taking well into the third quarter when it only trailed 10-9 despite so many missed opportunities. Red zone play was the main culprit as Darnold was just abysmal in that confined space, missing receivers left and right. The Lions challenged him with a good pass rush while playing man coverage, and he simply couldn’t beat it with so many balls overthrown and off the mark. Darnold finished 18-of-41 for 166 yards. No turnovers but failing three times on fourth down is just as bad, especially when multiple drives were inside the Detroit 3.

The Lions were already No. 1 in red zone EPA/pass allowed, and that number should only look better after this game. But what a shocker to see this game produce four touchdowns, and all four were scored by Jahmyr Gibbs for Detroit.

Matchups matter, and maybe the Vikings could come up with some better man-coverage beaters in a rematch should there be one. But I think this game changes a lot of the feelings about these teams going into the playoffs as the Lions may in fact have enough on defense to get the job done for the Super Bowl, and the Vikings might just end up going 14-4 with sweeps by the Lions and Rams (their next opponent).

I’ve been pro-Darnold this season and he’s been passing so many different tests. But given this was the biggest game of his career, I can’t say I’m confident about what he’ll do in the playoffs when the season truly is on the line. At least this was a trial run and he got a taste of the atmosphere, but that was brutal to watch all night.

Saints at Buccaneers: Baker’s Legs to the Rescue

One of the day’s most entertaining games was watching Tampa Bay struggle as a two-touchdown home favorite against Spencer Rattler and the Saints with a division title on the line. I always say division games are scary. But despite being an offensive juggernaut in many games this year, the Bucs were down 16-6 at halftime and 19-13 going into the fourth quarter.

But Baker Mayfield’s legs made up for a slow start to his passing. He ran 9 times for 68 yards in this game, including some huge plays in the fourth quarter to lead a comeback. He also got things going with Jalen McMillan, who had a huge catch on fourth down and a touchdown on a drive where he was wrongfully penalized for a finger-pointing celebration that had nothing to do with gun violence. Then Mike Evans started making plays as he needed 85 yards in the game to reach 1,000 yards for the 11th year in a row.

Meanwhile, the Saints added to their misery of not being able to make a single fourth-quarter comeback win for the second season in a row. They were 0-7 this year with four blown leads, and this was just another.

But Baker’s improv on a lateral to Bucky Irving for an 11-yard touchdown gave the Bucs a 27-19 lead with 1:51 left. The Saints turned it over on downs with 36 seconds left. The game was effectively over, but Evans needed 5 more yards to get his 1,000, which would trigger a $3M bonus. It was risky, but they threw a pass to him, and the Saints didn’t seem to mind letting him make the play as he picked up 9 yards and the whole team celebrated as the game was over, the bonus was his, and the NFC South belongs to Tampa Bay.

They would have won it anyway after Atlanta lost in overtime in Carolina, but this was a grind against a really bad New Orleans team that’s missing so many key players. We’ll see how the Bucs fare in a Week 1 rematch with the Commanders, but that might be a better matchup for them than the Vikings.

Bengals at Steelers: Close But No Cigar

Well, I guess the Bengals won the closest thing they’ll have to a playoff game this year as they came through in Pittsburgh in a 19-17 slugfest to reach 9-8. But they didn’t get the help they needed from the Chiefs-Broncos game on Sunday, so they are out. That’s also what happens when you lose 16-10 at home to the Patriots, one of the worst teams in football, in Week 1. September matters too and the Bengals dug too big of a hole to get out of.

But as for the team that is in the playoffs from this game, just what the hell are the Steelers doing to end this season? They’ve lost four games in a row and are playing terrible offense. Even though the start of this game looked like the defense was going to be a disaster, they calmed down and kept the Bengals out of the end zone all night after giving up that opening-drive touchdown. The special teams had a big mistake with a fumble, but they made up for it by recovering a fumble later.

This was on Arthur Smith’s offense. All the nice things I said when they lit up the Bengals in Cincinnati earlier this season, throw them out the window like they never happened. The Steelers sure seemed to forget they did.

Russell Wilson had 414 yards in that first game, taking advantage of YAC and passes to his running backs over the middle. That didn’t exist in this game. Jaylen Warren had 0 catches. Calvin Austin, someone who can catch some quick hitters, had 0 catches. George Pickens caught an early screen that was terrible, then didn’t catch his last five targets, including several awful drops in maybe the worst game I’ve ever seen a Pittsburgh wideout play. He finished with 0 yards and I’d put his chances of a second contract in Pittsburgh at 0.0001%.

For most of the half, Wilson had two completions: the ill-fated screen to Pickens and a brilliant 25-yard catch by Mike Williams. But guess what? Williams never received another target the rest of the game. How the fvck does this happen?

Then even when they had a chance to go get a game-winning field goal, Wilson, a veteran who has done this dozens of times, completely botched the last drive with horrible clock management. I can’t crucify him for the whole game because of the drops by Pickens and then the fourth-and-ballgame drop by Pat Freiermuth, but Wilson was terrible for most of the game. Get rid of the ball faster instead of being a pin cushion for Trey Hendrickson (3.5 sacks).

It’s just such a frustrating offense to watch, because there’s no reason they can’t be better than this. The coaching incompetence is high, and once again, Mike Tomlin has no answers for a losing streak.

They probably embrace going to Baltimore because of past success and playing an ugly, low-scoring game. But they did just lose 34-17 there, so this might be a rude awakening and a 5-game losing streak to end the season.

Chiefs at Broncos: That’s Going to Leave a Mark on the Stats

Well, I guess the Chiefs aren’t very good when they rest their ~13 best players for the playoffs and they’re facing a team that’s playing for their season that already should have beat the KC starters in Arrowhead earlier this year.

But god damn, 38-0? Making Bo Nix look like a mobile Drew Brees. The Broncos outgained them 479-98. You have to go back to the 2000 Browns against the Jaguars to find the last NFL team to get outgained by at least 380 yards while being held under 100 yards.

The Chiefs aren’t going to care about this performance, but it does create an interesting dynamic. What if this spurs the Broncos to go beat Buffalo in this week’s 7-2 matchup, which would send the Broncos right back to Arrowhead after the Chiefs haven’t played their starters for 24-25 days? Getting rid of Buffalo would be ideal, but let’s not act like Denver hasn’t played the Chiefs well even going back to last year. The Chiefs just don’t score much on them and they have multiple DPOY candidates.

Maybe the Broncos flop in Buffalo and it’s a moot point, but they won there last year by forcing the Bills into so many turnovers that they fired their offensive coordinator. The Bills are due for some turnovers too.

Interesting AFC race all around this year. I still think a Bengals-Bills game would have been must-see TV and the most interesting 7-2 game you could have, but we’ll see if Denver can turn this opportunity into something.

Bears at Packers: Not Feeling Good About Green Bay Anymore

If I’m just being honest, the Packers, my preseason Super Bowl pick, haven’t done much to impress me this season. Had it not been for a blocked field goal in Chicago, they would have finished 0-6 in division games. They already lost in Brazil to the Eagles, their playoff opponent. They beat up on a paper tiger like the Dolphins on Thanksgiving and smoked the 49ers without Brock Purdy. They beat the Rams before they were good this year.

What’s their best win? A 24-22 squeaker over the Texans? Maybe they’ll surprise us in the playoffs, but I’m not sure Sunday could have gone much worse as Matt LaFleur suffered his first loss to the Bears, which ended their 10-game losing streak overall and their 11-game losing streak to the Packers by making a field goal at the end. Had the Packers just picked up 2 more yards to get a fresh set of downs, they could have won the game themselves on a walk-off field goal. But they left Caleb Williams time, and after dinking and dunking to little success all day, he came through and his kicker had his back this time.

Jordan Love injured his elbow and his status is unknown. Christian Watson left injured, but what else is new there? I just don’t feel good at all about Green Bay repeating last year’s playoff success as the No. 7 seed. This team won more games (11-6), but what’s impressive? At least they won in Detroit last year and beat the Chiefs.

Commanders at Cowboys: Mariota to the Rescue

While the Packers were losing to the Bears, the Commanders were on the ropes against the Cowboys once again. I’m not sure what Jayden Daniels was trying to accomplish in this game, but after taking several sacks, they sent him to the bench at halftime for veteran Marcus Mariota.

But they continued playing their other starters as Terry McLaurin came up clutch on the game-winning drive. He had four catches on the drive, including the game-winning touchdown from 5 yards out with just 0:03 left. That’s how the Commanders were able to get to 12 wins with a 23-19 victory over a Dallas team that got a monster game out of Micah Parsons (2.5 sacks) and a rare look at Trey Lance, who I still say should have been starting over Cooper Rush after Dak Prescott was lost.

So concludes a very disappointing Dallas season at 7-10. But I will say that Jerry Jones is surprisingly gifted as an actor after seeing him in Landman this weekend.

Panthers at Falcons: Bryce Young Finishes Strong

The Panthers (5-12) could be a trendy pick for the NFC South or wild card next year after a respectable finish for Bryce Young given where his season began. Sunday was arguably his best game ever as he accounted for 5 total touchdowns, including the walk-off winner in overtime in a 44-38 game.

But we have all offseason to talk about whether we can trust that finish or see what pieces the Panthers add to this roster. The more troubling issue is the way Atlanta (8-9) faltered down the stretch, and the way the defense has disappointed rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who led a couple of game-tying touchdown drives but never got the ball in overtime losses to Washington and Carolina.

The Falcons just gave up 44 points in his third start. As you might imagine, Tom Brady went 381 starts in the NFL without his team ever allowing more than 42 points. I like to bring that up only because it puts Brady’s incredible team help in context, but also because most of those games were under Bill Belichick, the coach the Falcons spurred in hiring in favor of Morris this year.

Still liking that move, Mr. Blank?

Seahawks at Rams: Geno’s Money Drive

Not much was on the line for the Seahawks, but Geno Smith had $6 million in incentives to hit, and he pulled off the trifecta for them. The key was getting the 10th win of the season for Seattle, the first 10-win team to miss the playoffs in the 7-team format. But it took a 4QC/GWD for Geno, the richest one of his career as he fought through the pain to throw his fourth touchdown pass to put the Seahawks up late.

Jimmy Garoppolo tried to answer after playing a solid game with the Rams’ backups, but his 4th-and-ballgame pass skipped in there short in a 30-25 loss. I’m a little surprised the Rams didn’t try to win for the No. 3 seed, but I guess they see little difference in No. 4 and No. 3, and they already beat the Vikings this year, their opponent next week.

But a good day for Geno that almost makes up for blowing the first Rams game that cost them the division title in the end.

Chargers at Raiders: Now the Real Fun Begins

Is Week 18 even real football when Quentin Johnston is catching 13-of-14 targets for 186 yards? But look out if he’s playing like that with Justin Herbert having his best defense, his best offensive line, and a real coach going into the playoffs with some momentum and a quality matchup in Houston next week.

This team is Kansas City’s worst nightmare in the divisional round. A gamer like Herbert who already tested them in Arrowhead without Ladd McConkey and J.K. Dobbins, and a pass rush that was after Mahomes all night and held the Chiefs under 20 points in both games. I could easily see NFL Films recording a “Who’s got it better than us?” chant from Harbaugh in a victorious locker room in two weeks to end the three-peat.

But first thing’s first. The Chargers need to deliver in Houston against that pass rush next week. Herbert has to get that first playoff win under his belt.

As for the Raiders, I’d fire the coach and do whatever I can to find some new quarterbacks for 2025.

Dolphins at Jets: Is That It for Aaron Rodgers?

I’m not surprised at all that Aaron Rodgers lit up the Dolphins for four touchdowns in what will probably be his last game for the Jets. Paper tiger defense with a backup quarterback starting in place of Tua Tagovailoa. It was never going to end well for Miami this year, and now Tyreek Hill seems to be on the way out – the Jimmy Butler path?

But Rodgers and the Jets (5-12) were the biggest disappointment in the league this year. If you told someone he’d get a trade for Davante Adams and finished with the stat line he had, you’d think the Jets were 10-7 or 11-6. But they blew a league-high six leads in the fourth quarter and firing Robert Saleh was premature.

Bills at Patriots: New England Wins, New England Loses, New England Fires Coach

The Bills definitely did the right thing by losing this one to make sure the Patriots didn’t have control of the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft. Don’t need them getting Travis Hunter, but that’s still a possibility if the other teams force quarterback picks at the top.

But the team’s 4th win of the season was no happy ending for owner Robert Kraft, who waited almost no time before firing coach Jerod Mayo. I think that’s the right call since he never should have been hired in the first place and didn’t show any value for the job this year. But the timing was still a bit harsh. Mike Vrabel coming next?

Shout out to Joe Milton though. I don’t care who was on the field for either team. He made some spectacular plays and should get some longer looks in the NFL even if it has to be with another team down the road.

Giants at Eagles: Tanner McKee the New Kevin Kolb or Matt Flynn?

With the way teams are so quarterback starved, Tanner McKee could be making himself some money with these performances late in the year for the Eagles. He’s thrown 4 touchdown passes in basically 6 quarters, and they asked him to throw 41 passes in a wire-to-wire win against the Giants with the Eagles resting their good players – just like the Chiefs did but with far better results against a weaker opponent.

But even with backups, the Eagles had enough on both sides of the ball to get past the Giants, who will finish 3-14 with a ton of question marks.

Hell, maybe they can trade a third-round pick for McKee…

Jaguars at Colts: Overtime? In This Economy?

I guess no one told the Jaguars (4-13) and Colts (8-9) their game didn’t mean anything, because these motherfvckers went to overtime in Week 18. It ended the way you should expect with Joe Flacco leading his 30th game-winning drive with a field goal, and Mac Jones being unable to answer it because of a sack and a 20-yard completion on 4th-and-22.

We’ll see if both coaches are back next year, but I think it’s pretty unlikely, especially in Jacksonville.

Texans at Titans: Will Levis Era Over?

Is it over for Will Levis in Tennessee, which finished 3-14 and secured the No. 1 pick? If so, it was a fitting end in a 23-14 loss in Houston where he was involved in some wild turnover and touchdown plays.

And it seems to me you lived your life

Like a candle in the wind

Never knowing who to throw to

When the blitz came in

And I wish they didn’t draft you

With that high of a pick

Your mayo ran out long before

At least your dick is big

Goodnight, sweet prince.

49ers at Cardinals: When San Francisco Goes Low…

San Francisco’s last 22 seasons since 2003 only include 15 non-winning seasons and 7 trips to at least the NFC Championship Game. There’s no middle ground with this team, which fell to last place in the NFC West with a 6-11 record. The injuries will be blamed for this one, and that’s fair to a degree, but let’s not act like blowing all those fourth-quarter leads in the division didn’t ultimately screw them.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals (8-9) completed the sweep here by running up the score to 47 points, but where was this offense in all those weeks where they couldn’t break 14 or 17 points? Too inconsistent for me.

Browns at Ravens: The Biggest Spread of the Season

For a while there, it didn’t look like the Ravens were going to cover the 20-point spread, the largest this season. They were only up 21-10 in the fourth quarter after dropping a ton of passes, Zay Flowers left early with a knee injury, and the Ravens looked a little bored defensively and frustrated offensively. But Derrick Henry finally got rolling after a poor start, and before you knew it, the Ravens were up 35-10 to put this one away and win the AFC North.

Did Lamar Jackson do enough for his third MVP? I think he already did before the game started. It wasn’t the masterpiece ending for his case, but he didn’t do much wrong in this one. Will voters just go with the pity vote for Josh Allen like the sportsbooks seem to think given the odds? We’ll see. But Jackson just had arguably the greatest dual-threat season ever, and we’ll see if he can turn it into his best playoff run.

Next week: The playoffs. That means the annual Houston playoff game on a Saturday afternoon to kick things off. Then we’ll see if Pittsburgh’s historically underperforming playoff defense will show up again, or if Baltimore’s historically underperforming playoff offense will neutralize it in one of the closest games this weekend. I’m not that sold Denver will give Buffalo a good game, but maybe the Chiefs gave them some confidence in what they’re doing. Packers-Eagles will be played on a better field than Brazil this time. Commanders-Bucs, the last time these teams met in the playoffs in Tampa (January 2006), my furnace was broke, so hopefully that’s not a repeat event this weekend. Vikings-Rams is a perfect matchup to end the week, the rematch of the missed facemask penalty.

NFL 2024 Week 18 Predictions: Feeling Minnesota Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The final weekend of the 2024 NFL regular season is here. I just took a peek at my preseason predictions for final records and they’re shaping up to be my worst ever, and the Minnesota Vikings are one of the biggest misses as I had them finishing 4-13. They’re a win away from going 15-2 and claiming the No. 1 seed with Sam Darnold having one of the greatest late-bloomer seasons ever, if not the greatest at the quarterback position.

But a lot of people probably made that mistake, right? It’s been a wild season with Washington also surprising people with its first 11-win season since 1991 behind rookie Jayden Daniels. The 49ers also repeated their 2020 “injury doom after a Super Bowl loss” season.

A lot to wrap up Sunday night when this thing is over and Game 272 is in the books.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 18 Predictions

The last week is always tricky as some teams could give a shit about the effort they’re going to put into this game, and for others, it’s literally the season on the line.

Like I said, some of these games mean little to nothing to these teams, so I’m only going to focus on the important ones here.

C:LE-BAL: All bets are off on Lamar’s MVP if he blows it as a 20-point favorite. That should go without saying. But I don’t expect Bailey Zappe to shock the world Saturday.

CIN-PIT: I wrote about this in my picks link above as I like the Steelers to win what might be their last win this season given their recent playoff flops. I think they know how to move the ball well against the Bengals and score points, and I believe in Cincy’s fatal flaws catching up to them with the season on the line. That means Joe Burrow taking sacks (please show up big for my DPOY futures bet, T.J. Watt) and the defense getting shredded. The Steelers are healthy after a long break from Christmas, so let’s see a better effort and send the Bengals home while likely clinching that No. 5 seed and a reasonable trip to Houston for the wild card.

BUF-NE: It doesn’t matter for the playoffs, but I’m going with New England in an upset win as it could satisfy two things for the Bills. After Josh Allen leaves the game after extending his consecutive starts streak, they can play like ass and lose big to the lowly Patriots to try bolstering his MVP case in another ridiculous fashion. But more importantly, don’t let the Patriots have control of the No. 1 pick in the draft and possibly land Travis Hunter as a weapon for Drake Maye. Lose this game to New England if you’re smart about the big picture in the AFC East.

NFC South: I’ll be shocked if the Bucs don’t come through and win against the awful Saints’ offense to win the NFC South.

KC-DEN: It sure looks like the Chiefs are not playing their ~12 best players or so in this game. You can’t bench everybody, but it’s going to be Carson Wentz and a slew of backups. Yet I’m still going to trust them to cover the spread and make it tough on Denver, which could be playing for its season if the Bengals win Saturday night. We’ll see but I think this game has some 2004 Steelers-Bills vibes to it.

MIA-NYJ: I don’t think this will be the last NFL game for Aaron Rodgers, but I do think he’s going to throw his 500th touchdown and get a win in what will be his last game for the Jets.

MIN-DET: The big one. 14-2 vs. 14-2. The Lions are +200 on the scoreboard and have had this incredible season, but I think the Vikings have the right stuff to win this game and earn the No. 1 seed. They have the defense that gets a takeaway every week, has held teams to 11/31 (35.5%) on 4th down to lead the league, and can get after Jared Goff like they did last time. I like the offense being able to score against this injury-ravaged defense that has allowed a lot of plays and points in recent weeks, and I think Darnold can get it done as he already has 5 GWDs this season.

It’s a little ballsy, but I’m feeling Minnesota in the Game of the Year that’s as much of a playoff game without being a literal playoff game. You either get a bye week and home-field advantage or you have to go on the road next week despite 14 wins. That’s crazy stuff. But I also think this is a fantastic trial run for Darnold for what real playoff games will be like. That’s why I still think this team has a shot to get to New Orleans even if they drop this game in a close one.

Maybe that’s a hint of where I’m going with my playoff picks this year, but let’s figure out these seeds and matchups before we get into that next week.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 16

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The NFL delivered such a frontloaded Week 16 schedule that six of the likely AFC playoff teams already played on Thursday and Saturday. All that Sunday had left was Buffalo slumming it with the Patriots.

But the games were competitive, and 12 of the 15 games so far this week had a comeback opportunity with six game-winning drives already in the books. We saw a concussion knock Jalen Hurts out of the big game in Washington, an iconic performance for Jayden Daniels in the comeback win, and the Cowboys even decided to play hard Sunday night to upset the Buccaneers and bring some chaos to the NFC South.

A week ago, people were flocking towards an Eagles-Bills Super Bowl. Now, that doesn’t look so hot with the reality that neither is likely to be a No. 1 seed, and teams like the Chiefs, Lions, Vikings, Packers, and Ravens are still very much relevant in this race.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Eagles at Commanders: Kenny Pickett? (Read It in the “Scut Farkas?” Narration Voice)

Sunday’s best game on paper turned out to be the best game for reasons no one expected. Jalen Hurts was ruled out early after a concussion on a long run where he just looked a hair off after getting up. That was enough to take him out and replace him with Kenny Pickett of all people.

Oh, it was quite the Pickett experience too as he took 3 sacks with his oblivious nature to the pass rush, he threw a pick, he locked onto basically 2 receivers (A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith had 23 of the team’s 28 pass targets), the Eagles were 3-for-16 on third down, and he still made a couple of clutch throws that probably should have won the game.

But it didn’t work out this time as Philadelphia’s winning streak was snapped at 10 games. The Eagles got a 68-yard touchdown run out of Saquon Barkley, but his other 28 carries only gained 82 yards as the Commanders kept stuffing runs to stay in the game after the offense had 5 turnovers on a sloppy day where they even started the game with a turnover on downs after Brian Robinson Jr. was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 run.

The ability to withstand 5 giveaways and still come back to beat a top defense like the Eagles 36-33 is really impressive for Jayden Daniels, the rookie sensation who absolutely locked up the Offensive Rookie of the Year award here. Even with his skill players fumbling 3 times and giving him 32 rushing yards, Daniels was a dual-threat machine in this game with 258 passing yards and 81 rushing yards. The only other quarterback in NFL history to even have one game with 5 touchdown passes, 220 passing yards, and 70 rushing yards was Cam Newton in 2015 against the Giants, a game that locked up his MVP award that year.

Would things have turned out differently if Hurts wasn’t concussed? Perhaps. But it’s not like the Eagles didn’t score 33 points, didn’t lead 14-0/21-7/27-14, or didn’t rack up takeaways. They just couldn’t finish the job.

Barkley had a big drop on his only pass target in the fourth quarter. Later, Daniels made his biggest mistake with an interception with 2:53 left in a 30-28 game. But instead of icing the game, the Eagles couldn’t convert a 3rd-and-5 when Pickett’s pass was dropped by a wide-open Smith, a shockingly bad drop that’s even worse than the one Barkley had in Week 2 against Atlanta, another improbable loss for the Eagles this year and why their shot at the No. 1 seed is all but toast.

That gave Daniels another shot in a 33-28 game with 1:52 left, and he delivered another clutch drive for a 9-yard touchdown to Jamison Crowder with 6 seconds left to go up 36-33 after a 2-point conversion run.

The Commanders are still going to likely fall short of winning the NFC East, but can you imagine if the wild card match is No. 7 Washington at No. 2 Philadelphia? That just got a lot more likely and interesting after this game.

Texans at Chiefs: Stroud-Mahomes I Not Quite as Planned

When the NFL schedule came out in May, I was hyping up Texans-Chiefs as a huge game for the MVP race and No. 1 seed. I thought C.J. Stroud would be the next challenger to Patrick Mahomes in the AFC, and this game would be his chance on a national stage to show how far he and this team has come against the defending champs.

Well, the season hasn’t quite turned out that way, but both teams still came in as division winners and the Chiefs are chasing the No. 1 seed. I also think Stroud held his own and did a decent job on the road after losing Tank Dell to a gruesome knee injury. He’s already lost Stefon Diggs, so it’s basically Nico Collins and some guys, and one of those guys (tight end Dalton Schultz) had a pretty egregious drop in the second half.

But Stroud also threw two picks, and you can’t do that in Kansas City. The Chiefs are getting that turnover regression in full force now with 8 takeaways in the last two games after 10 takeaways through 13 games. The offense also hasn’t turned it over in 5 straight games, the longest streak in the Mahomes era. So, everything I was saying about turnovers for this team earlier this season is coming true now with the defense starting to get them and the offense avoiding them well.

But it was still another one-score win despite the Chiefs only spending about 5-6 minutes trailing in a game they mostly controlled. Hollywood Brown made his season debut and looked solid given he’s never played a real game before with this offense. Definitely should be a plus going forward. Even Xaiver Worthy played well and scored another touchdown. Still not getting much from the running game, but I like that the Chiefs made a real effort to get the ball out fast against an elite pass rush.

Mahomes played very well, and go figure, he showed on the opening drive that the ankle was no big deal with two huge scrambles, including a 15-yard touchdown run. The Chiefs finished with 27 points on 9 drives, and that includes Kareem Hunt sliding down at the end when he could have scored if he wanted to.

But the Chiefs are more than content with their 27-19 type of victory as they are 14-1 and march towards another No. 1 seed. They get two cracks at winning one game to clinch it.

Steelers at Ravens: Pittsburgh Might Lose Out Now

Why does this game feel so long ago when Saturday was just one day before Sunday? But I wanted to quickly touch on three things with this one.

First, Russell Wilson undoubtedly screwed things up here in a game that was more high scoring than expected and there for the taking. He got greedy on the scramble that turned into a fumble when he should have been satisfied with a 1st-and-goal. Then the pick-six after Minkah Fitzpatrick delivered an incredible pick was just a back breaker and game ender to make it 31-17 in the fourth quarter. Can’t afford those kind of mistakes on the road against a playoff opponent.

As for Mike Tomlin, I think he let the Philadelphia punt beat him twice. Tomlin was rightfully criticized for punting last week in Philadelphia before the Eagles went on to run out the final 10-plus minutes on the clock. But instead of learning the right lesson that the punt was bad because of the 27-13 score and the struggles to get Philly off the field, Tomin ignored the game situation Saturday and made another bad call when he went for a 4th-and-6 at the Baltimore 45 with a whole quarter left. Wilson threw deep to Calvin Austin for an incompletion.

Maybe it’s a moot point since two plays later, Lamar Jackson wasted Derrick Henry’s 44-yard run by throwing a pick, but I still would like to see Tomlin learn when to punt and when to go for it with better skill and reasoning instead of what feels like randomness. He got aggressive in a spot that really didn’t call for it. I also think he was frustrated the Ravens recovered all 3 of those early fumbles that could have really turned this game around. It just wasn’t Pittsburgh’s day as fumble recoveries on those plays is key to how they’ve been beating Baltimore so routinely.

But I wouldn’t say it was exactly Lamar Jackson’s day either. Sure, he threw 3 touchdowns and got his cleanest win yet against the Steelers. But he only hit one 20-yard completion in the game against a secondary that was already missing a corner (Donte Jackson) and lost another (Joey Porter Jr.) to injury. T.J. Watt wasn’t 100% after a fourth-quarter injury last week and wasn’t a factor here. The Ravens recovered Jackson’s early strip-sack fumble. He only had 25 rushing yards on 6 carries, so they kept him contained again. Then he threw a horrible pick in the red zone when the Ravens had their shot to go up two scores.

But Henry rushed for 162 yards and the Steelers left some key receivers open throughout the game. I don’t think they’d have any fear of a rematch even if it was played in Baltimore in the playoffs. George Pickens, Jackson, and Porter Jr. should be back for that one and a healthier Watt (hopefully).

We might end up seeing that too, because it wouldn’t be surprising if the Steelers lost out here with the Chiefs and Bengals up next. I guess it depends on how badly both teams need that Week 18 game.

But the Ravens needed this one to avoid losing the AFC North, and they came through. We’ll see what they do in Houston next while the Steelers have to deal with the Chiefs.

Patriots at Bills: Running Backs Matter?

As new AFC East rivals, you’re going to hear a lot of comparisons between Drake Maye and Josh Allen in the next few years, or at least for as long enough as Maye gives us a reason to.

Here’s one such comparison: Maye’s 2024 rookie season is better than Josh Allen’s 2018 rookie season. If the Patriots invest wisely this offseason, I’d expect Maye’s second season to also be better than Allen’s second season. Anything beyond that might be a stretch.

But that’s the future. As for Sunday, it’s no stretch at all to say Maye outplayed Allen in their first matchup but didn’t get the win because of the difference in how their running backs played. It was 14 degrees at kickoff, but Maye did well throwing the ball in Buffalo, making some excellent plays down the field and in tight windows on shorter throws.

The Patriots led 14-0 early, but they couldn’t build on that lead. Buffalo also quickly cut into half of it with a 46-yard touchdown run by James Cook, his fourth burst from over 40 yards for a score this year. He later added another touchdown catch on another drive where he broke a 25-yard run.

It covered up a poor game from Allen, who threw for 154 yards on 16-of-29 passing. He only had one touchdown pass and threw an ugly looking interception in the end zone that the Patriots were caught trying to return instead of taking the touchback. Allen only rushed for 30 yards too, so it just wasn’t a very effective game for him at all. His 28.7 QBR was the third lowest this week while Maye’s was 67.3.

But this game turned in the third quarter when Rhamondre Stevenson lost a fumble, setting up the Bills for a 50-yard go-ahead field goal on a drive that was just 10 yards long. The Bills led 17-14 and never trailed again from that point. I can’t help but point out all the big fumbles the skill players for the Patriots have had since 2020 after Tom Brady left the team. This didn’t use to happen to them, but it has now and Stevenson is a repeat offender with some huge fumbles in his career.

This game is another glaring example, but the stat sheet is going to show that Maye fumbled on a lateral pass to Stevenson in the fourth quarter that was returned for an easy Buffalo touchdown to make it 24-14.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1870980329097539969

Was the pass too hard? Hell no. That’s a pretty soft lob that hit Stevenson right in the hands well before any contact. The problem was he shouldn’t have thrown it as the defender was bearing down and it was going to be a huge loss even if caught. Throwing it backwards to make it a live ball instead of forward to be a swing pass that might go incomplete just made it worse.

But that play really ruined the game for New England, and I swear Stevenson is a double agent at times for this team. Don’t forget the time he choked against the Bengals in 2022 on 1st-and-goal from inside the 5.

Eventually, the Patriots scored a touchdown with 1:13 left, but they wasted almost a full minute after having 1st-and-goal at the 1 with 2:14 left. Antonio Gibson, the other back, was stuffed for a 3-yard loss, leading to an extended series of plays, including a bad dropped fumble by Maye that he recovered, that took a minute off the clock and left the Patriots with little hope of getting the ball back despite keeping all three timeouts.

Maybe Drake Maye should embrace his “the new Josh Allen” and should have did the Tush Push on that 1st-and-goal play at 2:14. Get this thing in before the 2-minute warning and the Patriots could have had 4 clock stoppages in a 24-21 game on a day where Allen wasn’t good.

But this is why the Patriots are 3-12.

Buccaneers at Cowboys: Where Was This Dallas Team Earlier?

The Cowboys (7-8) may have been eliminated from the playoffs Sunday, but they’re possibly a botched punt against Cincinnati away from a 5-game winning streak after taking down the Buccaneers in a wild 26-24 game Sunday night.

Where was this team earlier in the season when it was getting destroyed by 20-point deficits at home every week? Cooper Rush had a successful night against the Tampa Bay defense, and the Buccaneers had some really poor plays with drops and getting outmuscled for the ball by Dallas’ defense who just looked like they wanted it more all night. The interception in the fourth quarter in the end zone was a great example of that.

But what about the ending? It looked like Tampa Bay was going to pull off an improbable 9-point comeback in the last 5:00 by scoring twice. They got the ball back with 1:40 and only needed a field goal. But one of the craziest endings you’ll ever see took place. On the first snap, Baker Mayfield kept fighting to avoid a sack, flipped the ball out to receiving back Rachaad White, who carried it like a loaf of bread before securing it and gaining some YAC.

https://twitter.com/brgridiron/status/1871052626302804198

But even though he got both hands on the ball again, the Cowboys still ripped the ball away from him for a game-deciding fumble. Madness.

Tampa Bay (8-7) is going to need Atlanta to lose a game if it wants to win the NFC South again. This was a bad performance in Dallas for them.

Vikings at Seahawks: Another Close Win for Kevin O’Connell and Sam Darnold

Remember when the Vikings were 5-0 and people started writing them off after a little 2-game losing streak? Well, they’re 8-0 since their last loss, and the latest test they passed was another gut-check win on the road in Seattle against a team playing for a division title chase.

I continue to be impressed with Sam Darnold, who shook off another 3-sack game by still throwing 3 touchdowns, including the game winner from 39 yards out to Justin Jefferson with 3:51 left. Darnold has led 5 game-winning drives this season, doubling his career total he had coming into 2024.

Geno Smith played well on that knee injury for most of the game, but when push came to shove, he took a sack and a fantastic tackle on a 3rd-and-16 checkdown to the running back led to a 60-yard field goal, which was missed with 1:55 left. After Smith got the ball back with 55 seconds left and still in need of a field goal for overtime, he immediately threw a bad pick to end the game.

I’m heavily rooting for the Vikings to beat Green Bay next week so that we can get the last game of the regular season to be Vikings-Lions in Detroit for the No. 1 seed. I’m also not ruling out 2024 being Sam Darnold’s Eli/Flacco/Foles moment as we feel overdue for that kind of postseason.

Lions at Bears: On the Bright Side, No Clock Mismanagement This Time…

The Bears almost beat the Lions on Thanksgiving, but there was no such close finish this time as the score stayed 34-17 the entire final quarter. It didn’t help that the Bears had another slow start, falling behind 20-0, but you have to blame Rome Odunze for a couple of early fumble plays for that this time.

But the Lions were excellent on offense with a big game from Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs in a starring role without David Montgomery (MCL). I believe the theory that offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was “showing off” to impress the Bears’ front office if he is to be their next head coach. Calling that intentional “stumble” play with Goff throwing a touchdown was an excellent example of him pulling out all the tricks even when the Lions probably didn’t need them to beat Chicago again.

But Johnson should want to coach a team like Chicago. First, you stay out of the AFC where most of the elite quarterbacks are, and you have a chance to build up the Bears with Caleb Williams, who again had a game where I think it showed his potential more than it did problems. He threw for 334 yards, no picks again, and he only took 2 sacks this week. He was also his team’s leading rusher again with 34 yards.

Johnson is a hot commodity in the coaching ranks, so we’ll see where he lands next month. But this very well may have been part of his interview with the Bears.

Rams at Jets: Almost a Historic Game

The Rams just can’t play a “normal” game this month. They go from a 44-42 wire-to-wire win over the Bills to a 12-6 comeback win in rainy San Francisco, and now it’s a 19-9 win in New York that looks low scoring as hell, but this game actually came close to being historic.

Each team only had the ball three times in the first half as long drives ruled the day. In the third quarter, the Jets had a drive that lasted nearly 10 minutes and ended with a turnover on downs, a killer and probably a bad decision to go for a 4th-and-4 instead of a short field goal to go up 12-6.

But the Rams’ next drive bled into the fourth quarter, a game-tying field goal drive, so we had a game with just 8 total possessions with 12:44 to play. This could have set the record for the fastest 60-minute NFL game ever played and the one with the fewest possessions between two teams (think 11 would do the trick, maybe 12), but we didn’t get there in the end.

Aaron Rodgers went from some strong drive engineering as his protection held up to giving up the ball on a strip-sack as he got a little too comfortable in holding onto it. That put the Rams on a short field for a go-ahead touchdown drive as Matthew Stafford found a healthy Tyler Higbee for 11 yards. Rodgers couldn’t answer on the ensuing 4th-and-4, and the Rams added a field goal to make it 19-9.

The Jets’ last real hope was a 49-yard field goal with 2:02 left, but as has been the case all season, the kicking team blew it. Even when they tried to get one last possession back, they muffed the punt, so the special teams have been just abysmal for the 2024 Jets.

And that’s how you end up blowing your sixth 4th-quarter lead of the year to lead all teams, the most since Josh McDaniels’ Raiders in 2022. Just going to leave this here, and keep in mind it’s 15 starts that Rodgers started and finished this year as that 16 number includes last year’s Buffalo opener when he tore his Achilles.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1871091880181870770

Cardinals at Panthers: Adios, Arizona

The Cardinals (7-8) have been eliminated from the playoffs after a bad loss in Carolina. They forced overtime after trailing 20-3 early and 30-20 in the fourth quarter. But losing James Conner, who was having a huge game, didn’t help, and in overtime, the Cardianls couldn’t get a drive going. They were even so desperate to move the chains they went for a 4th-and-2 at their own 18, which would have set the Panthers up for a game-winning chipshot if they didn’t get it.

They converted, but the reason that’s a big gamble is you’re still not guaranteed to move the ball any deeper and might end up punting it back anyway. That’s exactly what happened too. Between a delay of game penalty and sack of Kyler Murray on third down, the Cardinals ended up punting from their own 4 after another penalty on top of that. By the time the Panthers got the ball for the second time in overtime, they were at midfield and it only took one Chuba Hubbard run for 28 yards to get in field goal range, then he just ended it with a 21-yard touchdown run to win 36-30.

I don’t know if Bryce Young will ever be good, but I do know that Kyler Murray just missed the playoffs for the fifth time in six years in Arizona, and no one seems to care about that. He’s reaching that Sam Bradford level of “no one cares” for a No. 1 overall pick.

Browns at Bengals: Should Have Been Jameis All Along

As it turns out, Jameis Winston had some type of injury that kept him out of action this week. It’s a shame because I think the Browns could have won this game with him taking on that defense instead of a minimal passing game from Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who took 5 sacks and threw 2 picks while leading the offense to 6 points on 10 drives. That will help the stats for the Cincinnati defense this year.

You could tell early that it wouldn’t be Cleveland’s day when D’Onta Foreman fumbled at the 1-yard line to start the game instead of taking a 7-0 lead. The Bengals were stuck on 17 points for a while, and Joe Burrow even fumbled on a strip-sack from the Cleveland 1 late in the fourth quarter when he was trying to extend his streak of games with 3 touchdown passes.

That’s why I criticize Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts for taking the easy option on the Tush Push instead of being asked to make a throw down there in a confined space. You never know what might happen, but Burrow didn’t even get a pass off here. I’m not saying the sneak isn’t the percentage play, but it’s not something we should be giving excessive credit to for the quarterback.

But Burrow got the ball back and extended his streak anyway after Myles Garrett jumped offside and Burrow went hunting for that streak on a deep throw to Ja’Marr Chase, who came down with the touchdown to make it 24-6.

But it’s all for naught if the Broncos come into Cincinnati next week and win in a de-facto playoff game. That’s going to be the biggest Cincinnati game of the last two seasons.

49ers at Dolphins: From Losing to the Chiefs in the Playoffs to 6-8 Starts

The 49ers were eliminated from the playoffs before this one kicked off in the late window. While I was watching it on RedZone and the 49ers were trailing 19-10, it hit me seeing these teams with 6-8 records after they were both in the playoffs as two of the teams the Chiefs beat that had better than +100 point differentials in 2023. What a difference a year makes for these motion merchants.

I also find myself again scoffing at the injury excuses for the 49ers, who lost again here , when you still see a roster with Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, Leonard Floyd, Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, Fred Warner, etc. You really need more than that to not lose by 12 points to the paper tiger Dolphins?

But I digress. Jake Moody being a terrible kicker is one major roster flaw as he missed a 41-yard kick in this game that wasted a third quarter drive. But late in a 22-17 game, it was pressure on Purdy that led to a bad interception and the Dolphins put it away with a long Achane touchdown run they didn’t necessarily need as the game is over if he goes down at any point inside the 40.

But hey, run it up and celebrate something as the Dolphins (7-8) are technically not eliminated yet. It’s the 49ers who are toast.

Titans at Colts: The Almost Epic Comeback of the Year  

It was only two years ago when the Colts blew a 33-0 lead to the Vikings. This time, they were up 38-7 on the Titans with 6:50 to go in the third quarter thanks to some huge touchdown runs by Jonathan Taylor, who secured the ball this week. But the Titans marched on three straight touchdown drives behind Mason Rudolph, and this was suddenly a game again at 38-30 with 2:53 left. The Titans converted a pair of 2-point conversions.

The Colts only threw 10 passes at this point, but Anthony Richardson did at least deliver an accurate throw on his 11th attempt to convert a 3rd-and-8 at the 2-minute warning, or else we might have seen a real attempt at this 31-point comeback, a true rarity in NFL history.

But by the time the Titans got the ball back, there were just 3 seconds left and they were 89 yards away from the end zone while still needing another conversion just to force overtime. Rudolph threw one of the most charitable interceptions you’ll ever see to finally end it. But what a weird finish and game overall.

The Colts (7-8) are still kicking and have a real shot at finishing 9-8 again while still missing the playoffs.

Giants at Falcons: Penix Will Always Remember His First

I hope someone pulled rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. aside after his first NFL start and win and reminded him they won’t all be this easy. You can’t count on your defense intercepting two passes for touchdowns from a quarterback like Drew Lock every week. Those returns were even longer than any offensive play the Falcons had as their longest gain was 22 yards.

But it was a 34-7 blowout, Penix didn’t take any sacks, his first interception was 100% on Kyle Pitts, and you can’t really argue with the results. But we’ll see how he does against Jayden Daniels next Sunday night as the Falcons now control their own destiny for the NFC South again.

Jaguars at Raiders: Vegas Wins (Sorta?)

The Raiders ended their 10-game losing streak with a rare comeback win against exactly the caliber of team you’d expect them to finally beat in the Jaguars. It was watching a coach (Antonio Pierce) with a 1-10 record at 4QC attempts against a quarterback (Mac Jones) with a 3-15 record in such games, so something had to give.

In the end, it was the Raiders getting the win, but is it really a win when you give the Giants (2-13) a clear path to the No. 1 pick in the draft now? Not that there’s a huge quarterback prize waiting for them in April if the draft experts are to be trusted, but the Raiders probably aren’t going to control the top of the draft now.

Next week: Five game days from Wednesday-Monday. I think we’re peaking early again on Christmas, and I also think it’s going to be the Chiefs and Ravens winning again like Saturday. Seahawks-Bears is Thursday night, so we’ll see if the Bears can ever end this losing streak before 2025. The Saturday triple-header truly looks like a bad waste of my time on the couch, but I guess Broncos-Bengals is the highlight in the middle. That doesn’t leave much for Sunday, but Packers-Vikings is a good one, and SNF is Falcons-Commanders, which takes on new intrigue of course. Lions will try to destroy the 49ers on MNF to end the week in an NFC Championship Game rematch.

NFL 2024 Week 16 Predictions: Saturday Special Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We’ll find out if the NFL made a grave error in making the Chiefs, Texans, Steelers, and Ravens play on Saturday and again on Wednesday this Christmas. This was my main talking point in May when the schedule was released as I thought these games would decide everything from the MVP to the No. 1 seed.

In a way, they will, though the MVP race isn’t quite what I had in mind. But if Lamar Jackson has any shot, he’ll have to deliver against the Steelers for once in his career. We’re still waiting on that to happen and it’s Year 7.

But huge Saturday that has me more intrigued than Sunday for sure.

This Week’s Articles

Be sure to check out those Week 16 picks as I take my shot at the new YourWay bets at FanDuel, the most robust parlay options I’ve ever seen in sports betting. I tried a couple on TNF and almost got one if not for a touchdown scorer that failed. Very interesting stuff.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1869964776865935523

NFL Week 16 Predictions

I had the Chargers in a one-score game on Thursday night. I just didn’t think a fair catch free kick would be the key to a comeback win in that one.

HOU-KC: I had higher expectations for C.J. Stroud (my preseason MVP) in this one, but it’s still an important game and the drama is surrounding Patrick Mahomes’ ankle. Not an ideal opponent to face with the way the tackles are playing and the dominant pass rush the Texans have. But if you can get the pass off, there are a lot of plays to be had against this defense, and I think Mahomes gets the job done in the first of what will hopefully be many key Texans-Chiefs games in the AFC this decade.

PIT-BAL: I explained this in the Week 16 picks at 365Scores that it’s set up well for Lamar Jackson to finally notch a good victory over the Steelers, who won’t have George Pickens and T.J. Watt won’t be 100%.But I’m still taking Steelers ATS since that number went up to 7, and I know that no matter who is taking the field, it seems like these teams play a game decided by 1-to-4 points and neither team sniffing 24 points. Can’t say the defense won’t confuse Jackson again, but I still think the Ravens come through and save their shot at winning the AFC North. But it’s the biggest Ravens-Steelers game in 8 years.

CLE-CIN: Kevin Stefanski sucks for benching Jameis Winston against a defense that he could literally throw for 500 yards against. Yeah, it might come with 5 INTs, but you still take that risk. DTR is going to make this look like Watson was starting, and I expect that to help the Bengals win another game.

CAR-ARI: I don’t like Kyler Murray’s “shit” answer to playing in 35 degree weather. I’ll take the Panthers to cover just to hedge the bet, because you can never trust Arizona. But that offense should do well and I actually expect Trey McBride to finally score a touchdown catch.

PHI-WAS: Best game Sunday, but I wish I had more data or trust in what Jayden Daniels brings to the table with this team to make a stronger pick here. He really struggled in the first matchup and I think the ribs and short week played a factor. I expect better here, but the Eagles still have the better roster on both sides of the ball.

NYG-ATL: Another game where we’re going in blind with Drew Lock vs. Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. I’ll just take the Giants to lose a close one. Falcons should spam the running game here and not ask Penix to do a ton.

TEN-IND: It took a comeback by the Colts to get the first win over the Titans this season. My gut just says last week was a disaster in Denver, the Colts are finished, and Mason Rudolph is an improvement over Will Levis. Give me the Titans in an upset.

DET-CHI: Was the 2nd half on Thanksgiving fool’s gold? The Bears could have easily won that game, and the Lions have lost even more players to injury since. You also have to be wary of Jared Goff in a matchup like this after he turned it over 3x in a road December loss in Chicago last year. I’ll cautiously take Detroit to win but not cover.

LAR-NYJ: Another game where I’m just going with the underdog at home in a non-conference matchup as Aaron Rodgers waits until it’s entirely too late to start putting up numbers and wins.

MIN-SEA: I think the Vikings are one of the best teams in the league and they will produce on offense while getting after Geno Smith or whoever plays QB for Seattle.

NE-BUF: Less of a trap game at home for Buffalo than if it was on the road, but I think a 31-17 final that still means NE covered is very possible. I’m willing to give Drake Maye some points against the team that’s allowed 42+ in back-to-back games. This is a poor NE defense though.

SF-MIA: Two irrelevant teams right now. I’ll take the mentor (Shanahan) over the student (McDaniel).

JAX-LV: Tank for Travis Bowl? I think the Jaguars take the win as the Raiders look finished.

TB-DAL: Cowboys have been playing better ball lately, but I think Tampa Bay is close to being a complete team that can hang with anyone. I like them to cover here as explained in detail in the above link’s preview.

NO-GB: Tempted to take the Saints as I hate these huge spreads, but the Packers have been lighting it up pretty good lately on offense with Jordan Love, and I think they’ll look good at home Monday night. Could be another 30-13 type of game for them.