Tag: Texans

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Divisional Round

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The 2025 NFL Divisional Round was a mixed bag of a weekend. We had an overtime classic that played out like a Greek tragedy that probably had both locker rooms crying after it was over.

We had a total rout that you could have called after the opening kickoff return for a touchdown. Spike their boombox and everything. We had a disgusting game in snowy New England on the 22nd anniversary of the 2003 AFC Championship Game that looked familiar. Then we had another game that maybe won’t reach overtime classic status because of the overtime itself, but it did offer one of the most thrilling game-tying touchdowns in defeat in NFL playoff history.

But we’re left with a final four of the Broncos, Patriots, Rams, and Seahawks. It was that close to being the top two seeds in each conference, which would have been incredibly lame for such an unpredictable season.

But in the end, it’s those AFC schedule merchants (minus QB1 in Denver) and the two best teams in the best division in the NFC West getting a rematch for the Game of the Year.

First, a recap of what could be a significant weekend in NFL history, or maybe it’s just a one-off leading to the ridiculous conclusion of Sam Darnold holding a Super Bowl MVP trophy that Donald Trump will want, or God forbid, Jarrett Stidham doing his best Nick Foles impersonation and going to the Jets for $80M to shit his pants the next few years.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Broncos: The One Where Both Teams Lost

In a game that could have catapulted Josh Allen or Bo Nix to their first Super Bowl, Saturday’s 33-30 overtime classic ended up being a great day for Drake Maye instead. A game that could have huge ramifications in the AFC going forward, it was one where I joked during it that I wish both teams could lose, and they kind of did.

While many in the media want to push this narrative that you have to “feel sorry” for Josh Allen and the Bills, I don’t. I only feel sorry for Bo Nix and the Broncos fans as he was actually the one quarterback this postseason who really played well enough to elevate his legacy. And now he can’t continue this season after breaking his ankle in overtime.

In a game where people thought you had to attack the Buffalo defense with the running game, Sean Payton put it in Bo Nix’s hands on 58-of-68 plays (85.3%), often ignoring handoffs altogether on first downs. In the end, he sure wishes he would have called a RB carry on first down instead of this funky play that I blasted right away on Twitter, not knowing the 2-yard loss would be the play that broke Nix’s ankle and ended his season for surgery.

Nix didn’t take a single sack. He tied the single-season record with his eighth game-winning drive of the year, and now it’s over as Jarrett Stidham has to start the AFC Championship Game against the Patriots, his former team, next week. Just doesn’t seem real or fair, but that’s the outcome here for Nix after he played really well.

That’s the big news out of this one, and I have all week to cover where the Broncos go from here with Stidham. But the other story is Allen and the Bills losing for the seventh-straight postseason short of the Super Bowl after it was supposed to be their year. This one felt different, didn’t it? Players were visibly crying, including a teary-eyed Allen in his post-game presser.

This team has lost some huge games during this run, but I think they’re taking this one the worst because they knew this was their year. The “no excuses” stuff in the media for Allen was never hyperbole. Without the Kansas City Chiefs, the team they were 0-4 in the playoffs against, in the playoff field, this was their best shot. If you watched the way the Patriots and Texans played on Sunday, then you know damn well this was their best shot yet at getting to that elusive Super Bowl before Allen’s 30th birthday in May.

But the league’s greatest bridesmaid has to make peace with the fact that he had his worst playoff game yet, turning it over four times on one of the most feast-or-famine performances in NFL history. The Bills are the only team in NFL history to have three touchdowns, three field goals, five turnovers, and zero punts in a game. All 11 drives were scores or turnovers, and James Cook only had one of the turnovers that weren’t charged to Allen. Otherwise he had over 100 rushing yards.

Khail Shakir had a huge YAC play, Keon Coleman made a nice touchdown, and Dalton Kincaid played very well and caught a touchdown. Again, the “no excuses” thing was not hyperbole, and for all the talk about Allen needing to be Superman, it’s a miracle you can turn the ball over five times and still have a chance to win this thing on the road. That just proves the margin for error for Allen was actually higher than some believe.

Allen did some very good things in this game and was effective enough to score 30 points. But there were key mistakes and misses that will haunt him all offseason.

  • There was the horrific decision to be aggressive with 0:16 left in the half where Allen scrambled and fumbled, gifting the Broncos 3 big points.
  • Allen’s strip-sack to start the second half led to another Denver field goal, a win for the Buffalo defense that had to defend a short field and only gave up 2 yards.
  • Allen wasted a Nix interception by throwing one of his own.
  • Leading 24-23, Allen short-hopped a bad throw to Shakir on a 3rd-and-8 with 4:14 left, and the Bills had to settle for a field goal instead of a touchdown.
  • Allen missed a very open Dawson Knox for a potential game-winning touchdown before settling for a field goal and overtime.
  • In overtime, Allen threw a very low pass to Mecole Hardman that he tried to reach down for before losing control of it. A better throw gets a big play there.
  • That set up the fateful 3rd-and-11 where Allen underthrew a deep ball that Brandin Cooks had to slow down for, which helped Ja’Quan McMillian catch up to the receiver and take the ball from him for an interception that ended up being Allen’s last play of the game.

I’ve said for the last year that Allen is a turnover waiting to happen in the playoffs. His turnover numbers have always been misleading because of all the dropped interceptions he’s had in games against Kansas City alone. He also had 12 fumbles with only 2 lost, so that was lucky too.

Guess turnover regression came in every form for the Bills in 2025 as he finally met a defense who wouldn’t drop his picks or fail to recover his fumbles. After the Bills turned it over for the fifth time, the Broncos just needed a field goal. To that point, there were only five penalties in the entire game on both teams, so they were letting them play despite Denver’s poor habits of leading the league in penalty yardage.

One of the biggest calls was a holding penalty that would have wiped out a Keon Coleman touchdown had he held onto it. But he dropped it, so that brought up fourth down on that drive earlier in the game.

But for the most part, the refs were a moot point until they became the story on Denver’s game-winning drive with 53 yards worth of penalties on Buffalo’s defense.

The first penalty, I don’t know if it was a good call or not for DPI, but I know I don’t really care since Joey Bosa was also flagged for roughing for a late hit. So, it was either 15 or 17 yards and an automatic first down either way for Denver. They ended up getting 2 extra yards out of it, so no beef there.

Then the 30-yard DPI flag on Tre’Davious White for contacting Mims early. I think that was pretty textbook DPI. Then White was flagged for throwing his helmet off right in front of a ref, a foolish penalty to take. Then Denver was able to kick the field goal and win it 33-30.

I think the final drive was officiated fairly, but let’s back up to the last Buffalo drive as that’s the one people are throwing a big stink about.

If you want to talk about a cruel twist of fate, this game could have ended 32-30 on a safety for offensive holding on Buffalo in the end zone. Denver would have won that way after a clear hold was missed at the start of the drive, and Bo Nix would be healthy and playing on Sunday to go to the Super Bowl. Alas, it was missed.

Then with the throw to Cooks, you maybe could argue McMillian got there early and we had some DPI. That might actually be the better argument than saying it was a catch, because I can’t believe the number of people this week who don’t understand why this was ruled an interception. The Calvin Johnson Rule, the “complete the process” and the “survive the ground” concepts have only been around for the last 15 years in the NFL.

This was not simultaneous possession because they never both had control of the ball at the same time, so forget that idea of tie goes to the offense. For this to be a catch by Cooks, he has to complete the process of the catch going to the ground, so his knee or shin being down while being touched is irrelevant. He’s not a runner trying to get a down by contact ruling. He’s making a diving catch and he has to survive the ground. He didn’t.

When Cooks lands and flips over, he loses control of the ball and McMillian has it firmly in his grasp and it didn’t touch the ground. That’s an interception. I like the argument of removing the defender from the picture altogether. If Cooks lands there and the ball pops out with no defender to go to, they’d rule that incomplete every time in January 2026. But since the ball was lost to a defender without it hitting the ground, it’s an interception.

I don’t see it as that controversial either. There were closer calls on other plays this year like the pick the Rams got on SNF against Cade Otton and the Bucs when his knee was down as he was trying to get control of a ball he bobbled. This was a pick.

This was a pick for Payton Wilson against the Ravens in 2024 when he took the ball away from Justice Hill who got multiple feet down, then went to the ground and lost control of the ball. Interception.

You may not like the rule or the way it’s written, but I think this clearly was an interception for Denver as Cooks lost control of the ball before he completed the process. If you watch it at real speed (see the last 7 seconds here), it’s hard to deny this was a fluid motion with McMillian emerging with a ball Cooks lost:

Deal with it, Buffalo fans, that was a pick. I also think a big stink over this is because it was thrown by Allen, who we’re told by the likes of Albert Breer and Orlovsky that we’re supposed to feel sorry for after a game like this. Had Bo Nix thrown this pick and the Bills went on to win, I imagine a far quieter outcry over the ruling on the field.

Five turnovers on the road, four from your quarterback, it just can’t happen. That’s why the Bills came up short yet again. It wasn’t the run defense. It wasn’t because Tyrell Shavers was on injured reserve. Their best players turned it over five times on offense, and two of their vets had penalties on the final drive. Allen missed multiple game-sealing throws again.

I don’t get the sense the Bills are going to fire Sean McDermott after this one with so many coach openings out there and some already filled. But I’m not sure they can sell the fans with their new stadium that running this crew back is going to result in anything different next season.

Then with Nix getting injured here, the Patriots might have the clearest path any team’s ever had to a Super Bowl, and that would be disastrous for Maye to get one so early while Allen is still seeking that elusive first Super Bowl. The Bills would have had a chance to kill that noise with another road win next week against a quarterback that’s been so shaky in these two playoff games.

Instead, Buffalo finished second in the AFC East and won one fewer playoff game than it did a year ago despite coming into 2025 as the favorite to earn the No. 1 seed because of the schedule’s advantages.

Denver and New England swooped in there and outdid them instead. If I had to pick which duo of teams wins more AFC Championship Games in the next eight years, I’d still take the Chiefs/Bills over the Broncos/Patriots even with the latter going up 1-0 this season.

But Saturday was definitely the worst playoff outcome yet for Allen and the Bills, so I understand why they are extra emotional about this one. I just wish there was more acknowledgement from fans who want to focus on a fairly clear interception that it was just one of the last mistakes in a long line from the Bills in this game.

I’m still of the belief that 13 Seconds was supposed to be the year for Allen/McDermott, and it’s just never going to happen for them as a duo with this team. As Jim Nantz awkwardly said after this one, the next time you see Josh Allen he’ll be a 30-year-old dad.

Damn, Jim. He’s also 0-7 in overtime, the first quarterback to start his career like that since Aaron Rodgers. But even Rodgers won his only Super Bowl in his third year as a starter (2010) in his second trip to the playoffs.

Allen will have to make history by being the first quarterback to reach his first Super Bowl in his 8th postseason or more. I remember when Buffalo’s greatest quarterback (Jim Kelly) was slandered for losing four straight Super Bowls. Now, Allen is starting to look like he might hold that legacy of being the greatest quarterback to never start a Super Bowl.

That’s his title going into 2026, and we’ll just have to wait and see if this loss snowballs into a New England run that they could have stopped.

Rams at Bears: A Breaking Point or a Sacrificial Lamb Served Up to Seattle Next Week?

It’s hard to say what lasting impact this game will have without seeing the trajectory of the Ben Johnson-led Bears or the outcome for the 2025 Rams this postseason. Maybe it’s the breaking point for the Rams on their way to a second Super Bowl in five years as they were pushed pretty hard in overtime here, if it should have even gone to overtime.

Maybe it’s the game that gets Caleb Williams to work more on the fundamentals and tightening up his throwing motion and hitting the routine plays better next year to go along with the spectacular plays.

Seriously, did anyone have a better highlight reel than Caleb in 2025? The touchdown throw to D.J. Moore against Cleveland that resembled The Catch but deeper, the touchdown to Moore in overtime against the Packers, the 4th-and-8 against the Packers, and then the longest 14-yard touchdown pass you’ll ever see (51.2 air yards) to tie this game up in the final minute are four plays as good as any by a quarterback this year.

But this was a strange game all around. The Bears came out hot until Rome Odunze dropped a 23-yard touchdown from Williams. Two plays later on a fourth down, his pass was intercepted by a diving Ram, and that actually netted 6 yards of field position for Chicago. Still, you’d like to see Odunze step up as WR1 and squeeze that one for a quick score to make a statement.

The Rams had a great opening drive that went 85 yards in 14 plays with Matthew Stafford in command of things. But they really struggled after that with six punts and one field goal the next seven drives as the Bears were getting home with quick pressures, and the Rams weren’t attacking their low-ranked running defense enough.

In the third quarter, Williams threw his second interception, though it could have been argued the refs missed a blow to the head on the play. The Rams had the ball at the 50 but still went three-and-out, so it didn’t have a big impact on the game as a scoreless third quarter remained 10-10 going into the fourth.

We know the fourth quarter is where the Bears have been at their best all year, but the Rams struck first with a 91-yard touchdown drive that focused on the running game again as Kyren Williams scored for the second time. They called a WR run to Puka Nacua on a big 4th-and-1 before the touchdown, shades of the Cooper Kupp play on their game-winning drive in Super Bowl 56.

Also on this go-ahead drive, there was a 12-yard pass to Davante Adams that people are trying to compare to the Brandin Cooks play in Denver. It’s a silly comparison from people who are reaching.

This is not the same play at all. Adams caught the ball in a crowd, established control, then was held up and tackled. As he was going down the ground with the catch already secured, his knee hit the ground, then he was stripped of the ball. But since he already completed the catch, the play is dead the moment his knee hit the ground. It was not a diving catch where he had to survive going to the ground like Cooks did (and did not succeed in doing). Not the same play. Move on.

To answer the touchdown, the Bears drove to the LA 2, but Williams’ fourth-down pass was batted down with 3:03 left. I might have to look into this more if the Rams keep advancing, but I’ve always said Sean McVay is incredibly conservative in the four-minute offense, so it didn’t surprise me the Bears got the ball back in a 17-10 game. I’m just surprised at how conservative the Rams were, because they chose to run Williams five times in a row. He screwed up the one by going out of bounds instead of sliding down.

But with 2:07 left and the Bears down to one timeout, McVay still called a run on third-and-10, which was silly since a pass and punt could still use up the two-minute warning, and the pass might have even given them a first down that could have come very close to wrapping this one up. Instead, Williams got the ball at the 50 with 1:50 left after a poor punt.

He didn’t necessarily make the drive look easy, but he’s been comfortable in the last 2:00 all season, and on fourth-and-4 at the 14, he ran all the way back to his 40 before throwing a pass up to the end zone where either Cole Kmet or one defensive back could get it. Kmet won the battle with ease as the DB misplayed the ball, and the Bears had their clutch touchdown with 0:18 left on an insane play by Williams.

With 18 seconds left, do you go for two? It’s the call that will probably haunt Ben Johnson all offseason, and I imagine next time he’ll go into a playoff game making sure he has the perfect 2PC call. But allegedly he didn’t go for it because he didn’t like the team’s execution in short yardage all night. Fair enough.

I see the argument both ways, going for it and playing for overtime. In the playoffs, overtime really isn’t bad at all anymore since you can about guarantee you’ll have a possession and it won’t be pressed for time either. Johnson already surprised me once this year when he didn’t go for 2 against Green Bay in Week 16 and won in overtime as we know he comes from that aggressive Dan Campbell coaching tree in Detroit.

With 18 seconds left, that’s definitely the right amount of time to justify going for the win. You could also argue that the Rams were shook by such a spectacular touchdown that going for the kill may have been the right call.

Alas, they went to overtime where the Bears won the toss, and I think they were correct to receive. Again, put the shellshocked Rams on the field first, and give Caleb four-down football with that extra margin for error, knowing exactly what he needs. Love that decision and would do it every time here.

It almost worked out too. Predictably, the Rams got conservative and called three straight runs (that’s 10 in a row going back to the fourth quarter) and went three-and-out after their 3rd-and-1 run was stuffed. Those short-yardage failures are something I’ve been highlighting for several weeks for the Rams this season, and between blowing that run and the lead, it looked like their weaknesses were going to eliminate them.

The Bears just needed a field goal for their eighth game-winning drive of the season (tie the NFL record) while the Rams had already allowed five GWD this season. But after a Williams sneak on a fourth down to convert at midfield, things went awry on a 2nd-and-8 at the LA 48. D.J. Moore had a poor effort on a route, and Williams was intercepted by Curl on a miscommunication that really isn’t on the QB or at least not entirely. Bad spot to be off like that.

Just like the Bills on Saturday, the team that just had to get a field goal to win the game threw a pick and never saw the ball again. Stafford finally got involved again with three completions for 43 yards, including a great grab by Adams and a big chain mover on third down to Puka (who else?).

Beyond blowing leads and short-yardage runs, the field goal unit is my other often cited flaw with the 2025 Rams. But rookie kicker Harrison Mevis had his team’s back with a 42-yard kick that was good enough to win this one at 20-17.

It was definitely a scare from the Bears, and who knows what happens had they gone for 2 against these Rams a la Seattle in Week 16. But the Rams escaped with the win, and now we’ll see if they can avenge that loss in Seattle. Barring a Darnold meltdown, it’s probably not going to happen if they play like this next Sunday night.

Texans at Patriots: It’s the Patriot Way

It’s actually fitting this game took place 22 years to the date of the 2003 AFC Championship Game, the game that ruined quarterback discourse for the rest of time. The game where Peyton Manning threw four interceptions and Tom Brady tried to match him bar for bar against a much inferior defense.

It’s not that Sunday’s game was expected to be a quarterback duel with two defenses on all-time runs of not allowing yards and neither gave up a touchdown in wins last week. It’s not like anyone has C.J. Stroud in MVP talks like Drake Maye, and the consensus was Stroud just needed to be a guy who doesn’t screw things up with his defense.

Well, that was always going to be harder to do without Nico Collins, who was out with a concussion. It got worse when tight end Dalton Schultz, the team’s second-leading receiver in yards (first in catches too), left the game early with an injury, putting Stroud in a familiar position of having limited weapons in the postseason after two years of injuries to Tank Dell (twice) and Stefon Diggs (2024).

But the Texans were supposed to have better depth this year. That didn’t really show up, and neither did their hands on the road as the offense looked like a “dome team” with some costly drops on late downs from Christian Kirk (early) and Cade Stover (late).

But the fact is Stroud was an absolute mess in this game, he threw four interceptions before halftime, including a pick-six I predicted, and there was a stretch where every pass looked like a prayer. Someone just hoping to get rid of the ball with no care where it went.

I’m actually shocked Davis Mills didn’t enter the game to start the second half, and maybe he should have. Mills has as many comeback wins this year as Stroud has in three seasons for Houston. I would have told him he can’t settle down, he’s not seeing the field well in the snow, and we’re going to give Mills a shot. Not that I’d expect it’d help the protection that looked outmatched, and the running game stunk (20 carries for 37 yards). But sometimes you see better protection when a backup comes in as if the linemen know they need to do better for that guy. Sometimes that backup just gets rid of the ball better or more accurately too.

Stroud was awful, and while he was better in the second half, it still didn’t make up for the damage caused early. However, a Woody Marks fumble in the red zone after he lost his shoe was another callback to the 2003 AFC-CG when Marvin Harrison fumbled in the red zone when it finally looked like the Colts had something going.

Despite the five turnovers by Houston, the only one the Patriots got any points off of was the pick-six by Marcus Jones. That’s because the Houston defense did its job by making sure Drake Maye looked pretty awful too. Maye had five sacks as Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson caused about as much havoc as they could on the road. They forced Maye to fumble four times, recovered two of them, and the other two were right there for grabs as well. Could have easily been a 5-turnover day for Maye, who also threw a Hail Mary interception to end the half that didn’t matter.

Still, that’s why it’s so much like the 2003 AFC-CG in that Maye tried his best to match Stroud turnover for turnover, but Houston didn’t capitalize enough.

But Maye looked shellshocked by the pass rush, not unlike what he did against a lesser Chargers defense a week earlier. He was just fortunate his defense was stellar as neither team had 250 yards of offense. The Patriots were also just 3-of-14 on third down.

The turnovers meant each team had 9 possessions by halftime, and the Patriots finished the day with 21 offensive points on a whopping 14 drives. Maye had three touchdown passes, but those plays said more about the receivers helping him out with a good YAC play by Pop Douglas, a very strong catch by Stefon Diggs to hang onto it in traffic in the end zone, then a brilliant one-handed catch for 32 yards by Boutte to put the Patriots up 28-16, the end of the scoring.

The unheralded play of the game happened three plays before that Boutte catch. The Texans had a chance to get the ball back in a 21-16 game in the fourth quarter with the Patriots facing a 3rd-and-8. But Derek Stingley Jr. was flagged correctly for defensive pass interference for 17 yards, and then he was beat on the touchdown too, so a rough series for him and the defense when they had a chance to set up a 4QC opportunity.

But be honest. Do you think Stroud, who is 2-10 at such games, would have capitalized? When the Texans later had the ball in a 12-point game, they punted on 4th-and-18 with 4:17 left. I know no one wants to go for it in that spot, but you at least give yourself a chance to get a penalty to convert or something. With only one timeout left, punting is such a cowardly move, but that’s what Ryans did.

Does he not realize you could end up forcing them to kick a field goal after three snaps and it’s still a 31-16 game? Two-score game. But Ryans did the cowardly punt, and the Texans had 1:45 left when they got the ball back. Just enough time for another Stroud prayer on 4th down to not be answered deep by Hutchinson on a pass broken up by linebacker Robert Spillane.

The Patriots put on a defensive masterclass against a quarterback in over his head. I’m honestly not sure Collins and Schutlz playing the whole game would have made a huge difference for Stroud, who became the first quarterback ever to throw 5 picks and fumble at least 5 times in the same postseason. He did it in just two games.

Stroud was awful, and ESPN’s Troy Aikman had some scathing commentary about how Stroud has been chasing his rookie success the last two years, and it’s just not there for whatever reason.

The Texans are going to have a difficult decision to make when it comes to extending him. This was their opportunity for a Super Bowl, or at least their first AFC Championship Game with this defense. If only Stroud didn’t screw it up.

He did though, and it led to a loss on a day where Maye didn’t show up either with his best stuff.

49ers at Seahawks: Just Keep Hitting Snooze for 3 Hours

They delayed this game’s start by 20 minutes for the conclusion of Bills-Broncos, and even then I missed the live airing of the competitive portion of the game, which was the opening kickoff return. By the time I switched over to FOX, Rashid Shaheed had taken the kickoff back 95 yards for a touchdown and the rout was on.

This isn’t the first time I watched a dramatic playoff game end at Mile High before having a hard time ever getting into the later game that involved the 49ers (Colin Kaeperick’s 176-yard rushing night against the Packers after the Ravens beat Denver in double overtime in the 2012 divisional round).

This one was like 2015 when we watched the Broncos beat the Patriots for the last round of Manning vs. Brady before the Panthers stunk up the joint in the NFC Championship Game at Carolina. That was another game I had high hopes for and was backing Arizona and Carson Palmer only to be disappointed with a dud.

That’s what this was: A massive dud. Seattle played well but the 49ers did almost no favors for themselves as the battered underdog. They gave up that kick return touchdown, then after getting good field position following a landing zone rule quirk, they still wasted it by calling the worst play they possibly could on a 4th-and-1. Seriously, option with Kyle Juszczyk going wide against a fast defense? You can’t be serious with 1 yard to go.

Right from Brock Purdy’s first dropback and incompletion you could see it was going to be a nightmare up front, but the 49ers killed themselves with three turnover on downs and two turnovers. The loss of tight end George Kittle (Achilles) unfortunately had an impact. Backup Jake Tonges fumbled on the second drive near midfield, the third big mistake of the night for the 49ers, and that led to a 42-yard touchdown drive for the Seahawks and a quick 17-0 lead.

The last time this was a game was late in the second quarter. Ricky Pearsall, who missed the last two weeks, had a shot at a 3rd-and-6 catch where if he caught it, the 49ers had a shot to get a touchdown and make this 17-10 getting near halftime. Instead, he didn’t come up with the ball and the 49ers settled for their second field goal to make it 17-6.

That’s when the Seahawks put together maybe their best offensive drive, a full 80 yards this time, as they mostly relied on the run with Sam Darnold suffering that oblique injury on Thursday. But that wasn’t a big deal with the early lead and the way the 49ers struggled in the trenches. Darnold didn’t even have 100 passing yards by the time it was 27-6 in the third quarter. It didn’t matter that the Seahawks still had some red-zone issues in finishing drives with touchdowns.

I don’t think Brock Purdy played that poorly on an impossible night. He even led the team with 37 rushing yards, a bad sign. His first turnover came in the third quarter when it was 27-6, and again it was a play involving a backup tight end (Luke Farrell), who made a pretty weak effort on the route and allowed the defender to cut him off for the pick and another short field. Soon it was 34-6 and rout was in full effect.

Jauan Jennings couldn’t come down with a great 3rd-down pass by Purdy, so the 49ers ended up turning it over on downs with a 4th-down miss, leading to yet another short field (37 yards) for a Seattle touchdown.

Down 41-6, Purdy was strip-sacked with 9:12 left before both teams played backups to run the clock out. The 49ers didn’t have a single play gain 20 yards and only scored 9 points in the last 8 quarters against Seattle in January.

But when they’re doing shit like this, is there any wonder they played so poorly?

I’ll have to eat crow on the 49ers stealing this one, but now we’ll see if the Seahawks can take care of the Rams with the Super Bowl on the line. Hell, I think the 2025 NFC Championship Game is the real Super Bowl this year.

Next week: I’m glad the little AFC appetizer game is on first, then we can make room for the showdown between the Rams and Seahawks that has little chance of living up to the Week 16 meeting. But with a record 14 lead changes in the fourth quarter this postseason, maybe we’ve got one great game left here before a Super Bowl that could be less than stellar.

NFL 2025 Divisional Round Predictions: Not-So-Elite Eight Edition

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Every NFL team is fairly flawed in 2025. But someone has to win this thing. Someone (me) just slept on the couch for 4 hours and feels wide awake at 7 AM and is writing this very quickly instead of running up to bed to finish this sleep on the eve of the best weekend in the NFL season, the divisional round.

But my mind is finally clear on what’s going to happen. I have the vision with some themes in mind, so let’s get right to it.

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

  • Bills 23, Broncos 20
  • 49ers 20, Seahawks 16
  • Patriots 20, Texans 13
  • Rams 26, Bears 23

Second-year QBs Bo Nix and Caleb Williams are denied from an 8th game-winning drive on the season.

The Bills’ pass defense stops Nix, coming through for Allen in a way that’s going to be similar to how Peyton/Brees/Rodgers won their first rings with their defenses making timely playoff stops in crunch time.

The Bears miss a game-tying FG in the cold to deny us OT as the Rams get lucky and escape with the 3-point win.

Sam Darnold and C..J. Stroud are who we thought they were.

Darnold’s oblique injury from Thursday limits his effectiveness and the 49ers again hold the Seahawks, who struggle in 3rd down/red zone, under 18 points as Shanahan/Purdy keep the streak alive of reaching the NFC-CG.

Houston’s defense plays very well but Stroud makes some critical mistakes without Collins, and this time it’s the Patriots who score a defensive TD and win with 13 offensive points (ring a bell?).

That’d set up for just the third time ever and second in a non-strike year a Conference Championship Game round that’s two division rematches: 49ers vs. Rams, Patriots vs. Bills.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFC Divisional Round Preview: The Greatness of the NFC West on Full Display

2025 AFC Divisional Round Preview: Is This Finally the Year for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills?

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: 2025 Divisional Round

Not sure why these won’t embed this week but there’s the AFC and NFC previews + 7 picks including parlays on underdogs, interception throwers, and TD scorers.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Wild Card Weekend

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The story all season for the NFL in 2025 was new contenders. The Chiefs, Ravens, and Lions didn’t even make the playoffs. The Eagles didn’t win a playoff game, so we’ll have a new champion.

We only have three of the same final eight teams from 2024 (Bills, Rams, and Texans). The Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots, Bears, and 49ers are all new in that round. This should have led to a crazy, unpredictable postseason, and if wild card weekend is any indication, we’re getting one of the craziest postseasons in NFL history.

All six games had a comeback opportunity, and the first four all had a game-winning touchdown scored by a trailing team after the two-minute warning, a single-postseason record. There’s never been a postseason with more than five fourth-quarter comebacks, so we have a great shot of tying or exceeding that here.

We’ve also already had 12 fourth-quarter lead changes in six games, another single-postseason record with seven games left. There have been entire postseasons where there wasn’t a single fourth-quarter lead change like 2020 (COVID year with empty stadiums) or 2005 (No. 6 seed Pittsburgh won).

I predicted Eagles over Bills in Super Bowl 60 on Friday night, and that’s already halfway wrong after Philadelphia’s title defense ended in somewhat predictable fashion. The 49ers’ insane 22-year streak of either making the NFC Championship Game (7x) or missing the playoffs with a non-winning record (15x) is still alive and just has to get through Sam Darnold next week to continue for the 23rd year in a row.

But that’s next week. First, let’s recap the weekend, which I think you can argue is the best wild card weekend in NFL history. I don’t think any one game this weekend would make a top 5 list of NFL wild card playoff games, but the collective competitiveness of the weekend and the way these teams were just matching scores (for four games) in the fourth quarter was crazy to watch.

Something truly memorable from a weird season to this point.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Texans at Steelers: Same Old Steelers with Their Old Quarterback

The Steelers lost their seventh playoff game in a row as DeMeco Ryans has already matched Mike Tomlin’s last 15 seasons in playoff wins (3) in just three years on the job in Houston. What a job it’s been too. He just won a playoff game by 24 points on the road despite his quarterback, C.J. Stroud, turning the ball over three times with five fumbles (two lost).

But that 30-6 score is going to be one of the most misleading finals in postseason history. This was a 7-6 game at halftime and going into the fourth quarter. It was only 10-6 Houston when Pittsburgh foolishly called another run on 2nd-and-10 that lost 2 yards as they never got a ground game going all night.

Then on 3rd-and-12, Rodgers was buried in the backfield, coughed up the ball, and the Texans returned it for a touchdown. You could definitely argue there was a blow to the head that made his helmet move that could have been called for roughing the passer to negate the turnover and touchdown.

If this is Rodgers’ last playoff game (or game period), maybe it’s fitting it ends with a fumble-six after an uncalled penalty, shades of no facemask call on him in Arizona in the 2009 wild card loss. Actually, his last pass of the night here ended up being a fourth-down pick-six as the Texans have now scored six return touchdowns in just five playoff games in the Stroud-Ryans era. It’s possible his last pass is a playoff pick-six after his last pass as a Packer was a game-ending interception at home in a game with playoff implications against the Lions.

It usually never ends well. For the Steelers, nothing has ended well in the last decade, but I’ll say this one was a little different since you really can’t blame the defense. Sure, they had poor plays on third downs all night, but it was a 10-6 game with 13:00 left. Do something on offense. The Steelers got a Stroud fumble at the Houston 21 and moved the ball 4 yards before settling for a field goal.

They stuck to their guns, which means they have no identity on offense. They had some good plays early to D.K. Metcalf before he dropped a big pass and shut down the rest of the night. Pat Freiermuth’s usage all season was criminal, but that’s what happens when your QB is so WR-centric and your OC is in love with Jonnu Smith.

The Steelers even led 3-0 after the first quarter, a big departure from their usual 21-0 deficit in the playoffs. But the Texans still got to 30 points, extending their record streak to 7 playoff games allowing 28+ points. They also set a record with a fifth-straight playoff loss by double digits.

The Houston defense is great, but the Steelers had them on their heels early and just got worse by the drive. No touchdowns scored. It was actually better when the Steelers would lose a 45-42 playoff game at home. At least the offense could score after some mistakes. This was impotency.

This team was false hope all year. They’d look good for a half against a contender, then they’d get crushed after halftime against the Seahawks, Chargers, Packers, Bills, and now the Texans.

And the sad part is nothing really changes until they fire Tomlin and get lucky with a high draft pick on a quarterback. That’s the only way you’re going to get fundamental change in Pittsburgh.

I think 600 words will suffice, because what more could you say at this point? Same old Steelers.

Packers at Bears: Finally, This Rivalry Is Worth Watching in Prime Time

The 2025 Packers-Bears just gave us the best trilogy since, what, Nolan’s Batman? For years we had to endure this dated rivalry in an island game, but with the arrival of coach  Ben Johnson in Chicago, we got three great games late in the season with the Bears winning both meetings at Soldier Field in dramatic comeback fashion as they’ve done all year.

I’m not sure if Johnson’s vitriol for the Packers stems from his Lions days (jealousy?), or if it’s just manufactured bravado to endear himself with the Chicago community. But he may have ended Matt LaFleur’s time in Green Bay or at least limited it to one more season at best after a total collapse from the Packers, who lost their last four regular-season games before blowing a 21-3 lead on the road, and a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter (only the fourth time that’s happened in the playoffs after Roger Staubach’s comeback off the bench in 1972, the 2002 49ers vs. Giants, and Super Bowl 51).

The wild part is, much like John Harbaugh losing his Baltimore job on the swing of a kicker’s 44-yard field goal, it’s not like Johnson badly outcoached LaFleur in this game. In fact, some curious decisions by Johnson on fourth downs (Dan Campbell’s protégé) helped lead to the Bears trailing 21-3 at halftime. Green Bay kicker Brandon McManus also cost the team 7 points by missing three makeable kicks.

The Packers, who never won another game after Micah Parsons tore his ACL in Denver, wasted one of Jordan Love’s best games of the season. He didn’t turn the ball over, he distributed the ball very well to his wideouts with four of them catching a touchdown, including the first of the year for rookie Matthew Golden after they got him in space to show off his speed. Love did this with Josh Jacobs not producing a damn thing on the ground after halftime, which is part of why the Packers became ineffective and kept giving the ball back to the Bears to make this 18-point comeback.

Caleb Williams looked like a young quarterback going through first-playoff start jitters. He threw two interceptions on fourth downs, one of which shouldn’t have been caught as it cost the Packers 27 yards in field position.

But the Bears were hanging in there at 21-6 in the fourth quarter, then proceeded to catch quite a few breaks. Williams nearly lost a fumble on a 3rd-and-10 sack, but the Bears recovered the ball and were able to kick the 51-yard field goal to make it 21-9.

After Love was called for his second grounding penalty of the half, the Bears scored a touchdown to make it 21-16. The Packers overcame some mistakes and made it 28-16 on Golden’s great touchdown with 6:36 left. That should have been a dagger, but these 2025 Bears don’t know when to die.

But it’s funny how the key turning point of the game was the result of the Bears not being well prepared on offense, which should be Johnson’s expertise area, and getting bailed out for it to save the game. Chicago faced a 4th-and-3 at midfield with 5:37 left. Hurrying to get the snap off, the Bears snapped the ball over Williams’ head, which would have been a disastrous, likely game-ending turnover on downs.

But the Bears were penalized for a false start, setting up a 4th-and-8, and given a second chance, Williams made the throw of his career to find Rome Odunze for 27 yards. Game on from there.

It could have been curtains without the false start, so that’s how another Chicago mistake actually saved the game. The Bears turned that drive into 8 points and it was 27-24 with 4:18 left. But then it was LaFleur’s turn to ruin the game for his team with infuriating timeout usage. He burned one after an incomplete pass brought up 3rd-and-10, then the Packers immediately suffered a delay of game coming out of it anyway. Inexcusable.

That’s when McManus missed the 44-yard field goal with 2:51 left. Not the biggest miss of the game for him if you ask me. He missed the extra point after Golden’s touchdown that would have made it 28-16 with 6:36 left. That would have meant the Bears had to score two touchdowns instead of possibly settling for 8+3 or 3+8.

The Bears ended up scoring 2 touchdowns anyway, but look at the impact that point had. Instead of trailing 31-28 or 29-28 after Chicago’s last score, it was a 31-27 deficit, meaning Love had to get a touchdown with 1:36 and one timeout left instead of a field goal.

Green Bay’s usage of that final timeout was also questionable, then as fate would have it, an injury led to a 10-second runoff, making things even harder. Love almost had Golden for a touchdown on one play, but then he fumbled the final snap and had to fire a pass to the end zone that fell incomplete, and the Bears extended their record with a seventh win this season after trailing in the final 2:00.

Going into this game, I would have thought the rumors of LaFleur getting fired with a loss were BS. But after seeing the way it played out and thinking about all the big-game failures he’s had in seven years, the Packers might be wise for a change of leadership here.

It probably wasn’t going to be a Super Bowl season anyway for the Packers after losing Parsons, but that second half was coaching malpractice. It wouldn’t be so crazy for LaFleur to be moving on to another team for 2026 now.

As for the Bears, what more can you say? Caleb Williams is exactly the reason why a stat like EPA per play isn’t the end-all, be-all of stats for quarterbacks. Can you get the job done and score when you have to no matter how many downs or snaps it takes? He seems to be pretty good at that, and some of the throws are just incredible. Still misses his share of easy ones, but he can get better with that.

It should be quite the game with the Rams next week, another new matchup. The Rams have already allowed five game-winning drives, so Williams might have a shot at tying the single-season 4QC/GWD records with eight each.

Bills at Jaguars: The Trevor Lawrence Legacy Game Goes as Expected

The Buffalo pass defense. Like I’ve been saying for over a month, the Buffalo pass defense in a playoff field without Patrick Mahomes is why this team can get to the Super Bowl even without home games or a good run defense. They just have to stop some unproven quarterbacks in crunch time, and Lawrence was the first on their list, bringing the season totals to 8 saves and 0 blown leads for the Bills.

Oh, there were lead changes in the fourth quarter just as there were in all the early games this weekend. But when it came time for the final drive and Lawrence had a solid minute to get a kicker with incredible range into position, he immediately threw a pick to end the season.

But I think the game was lost well before that. The Jaguars should have had a run-heavy approach in this one. How does Tuten rip off runs of 20, 14, and 13 yards to end the first quarter and get one more carry the rest of the game? How?

They put their eggs in Lawrence’s basket, and while he settled down later in the game and made some nice throws, he killed them early with a pick that led to a 1-yard field goal drive for the Bills. He killed them when he ducked under a defender and his shin was down short on a 4th down in the red zone when the Jags had a chance to go up 14-3 after the Bills fumbled a kickoff.

It was evident early that Lawrence wasn’t on his A game, but the Jaguars didn’t do enough to test that run defense of the Bills. Also, the Jags were gifted a 54-yard field goal attempt before halftime that I’m not sure they deserved by beating the clock (did they really?), and Cam Little, after all the praise for his record-long kicks, missed it. That hurts in a 3-point loss.

But the Bills had a good offensive plan to throw those little short passes to Shakir to pace the offense on a day where James Cook was bottled up by the No. 1 run defense. Maybe a few too many Josh Allen designed runs when he’s banged up, but they made it work. And of course with the season on the line, he went to the Tush Push again, and this time he was pushed ahead for a 10-yard gain on 4th-and-1 with the season on the line.

That play was so weird to me. You obviously want to stop them since it’s fourth down. But once he got moving like that, do you just let them score? It was 24-20, so Buffalo absolutely needed a touchdown, but what if you stop them at the 5? You can still get a stop there to win the game. Once he got to the 1, why not just let him go the distance? Weird play.

Then Buffalo was stuck in no man’s land since you really don’t want to risk wasting a down with a bad play and getting a penalty or something stupid to push you back. Ideally, you’d run clock there and score on 2nd down with the sneak, leaving the Jaguars less than 20 seconds to work with. But they scored on first down, whether by design or not, and the Jaguars were going to get the ball back in a 27-24 game with 59 seconds left.

But you get a wild tipped ball that’s intercepted, and just like that, the season is over for the Jaguars. To evoke Dan Campbell, this may have been their best shot too in this AFC. But that’s one road win and one postseason game-winning drive in the books for Allen, who had neither of those things in his career before Sunday.

Next up is Denver as I predicted it’d be, and I think they have a very good shot of winning that one too because of their pass defense against Bo Nix. Again, someone has to be willing to run to take this team down, and someone better get Allen to the ground on defense. That’s why Houston is really the danger team for the Bills, but they may end up avoiding them here.

So far, so good.

Rams at Panthers: Stafford with MVP-Style Revenge Against Carolina

I kept saying the spread (Rams -10.5) was always too high for a team that’s been shaky in the last month like the Rams, who have already blown games as a huge favorite along with two huge leads in the second half against the Eagles and Seahawks. They already lost in Carolina in Week 13.

The Rams prevailed 34-31 this time, but it did show why they’re a shaky bet to go the distance. The short-yardage runs, the fourth-down decision making, the defensive play as of late, and some turnovers from Stafford and the offense are not leading to dominant play late in the season.

In this game, Stafford completed his first eight passes with Puka Nacua doing whatever he wants. But then Stafford hit his hand on a helmet and wasn’t the same. Nacua dropped a 46-yard touchdown going into halftime, and the Rams had a huge turnover on downs moment late in the second quarter. I get why McVay went for it; to control the rest of the clock and go into halftime up 13-17 points. But by not getting it, the Rams only led by 3.

Bryce Young was more than solid in his first playoff game. Certainly a few plays he’d like to have back, but the running game wasn’t there for him, and he made some clutch throws in big spots to finish with 264 passing yards.

Young did lead two go-ahead touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, but the defense was unable to hold up. They had a chance at a Stafford interception on a mix-up with Nacua with just under 12:00 left, but Puka made a play on the ball to force an incompletion on a drive that ended with a touchdown instead.

But when the Rams got the ball back with 2:34 left, it was all calmness and precision from Stafford on the 71-yard march to win the game. He reportedly told Davante Adams that it was time to go rip their hearts out, which he did. He threw a 19-yard touchdown to Colby Parkinson with 38 seconds left.

Young got the ball back in a 34-31 game with all three timeouts, so that gives you access to the entire playbook and you can use every square inch of the field with no concern for the clock. However, he unfortunately saved his worst drive for the last as the Panthers couldn’t gain a yard, and Young threw four straight incompletions to end the game on downs.

Horn had a chance at a low catch on fourth down, but by that point, you’re down to under 7 seconds and still not in field goal range, so the real failure of the drive came well before the final snap. Just not the execution we saw from Young in these moments in the regular season, and it cost them at the end here.

But it was still a great effort for an 8-9 team that was the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history. Scary times for the Rams, but they prevailed and are moving onto Chicago.

49ers at Eagles: Repeating Is Hard

The 2025 Eagles were able to end a long drought and repeat as NFC East champions, but the only other repeat they’re going to end 2025 with is reminding us that this offense played half-assed football all season going back to opening night against Dallas when they only scored a field goal after a great first half.

The Eagles repeatedly did this all season, so it’s no surprise their season ended in this fashion. They scored two touchdowns on their first three drives, then never found the end zone on their last seven possessions. A.J. Brown bitched about targets all year and finished this game with 3 catches for 25 yards and some bad drops/incompletions. He might have played his last game with Philly.

Meanwhile, the 49ers hung in there and made it work without Ricky Pearsall, then they lost tight end George Kittle to a torn Achilles early in the game. Demarcus Robinson set the tone early with a 61-yard catch-and-run in stride on the opening drive, which he finished with a touchdown on his way to 111 yards.

Brock Purdy wasn’t perfect with a couple of interceptions, but he played well to get to 262 yards and 2 touchdowns without Kittle and Pearsall. They also couldn’t run the ball for much (16 carries for 51 yards). But on the first play of the fourth quarter, they brought back a trick play from Super Bowl 58 with Jauan Jennings throwing a 29-yard touchdown that required a great diving catch from Chrisitan McCaffrey to take a 17-16 lead. Both teams missed an extra point in the game (Eagles early, 49ers late).

The Eagles didn’t have Lane Johnson at tackle, which hurt as there were some big holding penalties that killed drives in the second half. They were able to turn Purdy’s second pick into a field goal drive that took a 19-17 lead with 8:00 left. But a defense that’s wilted in some fourth quarters blew a fifth lead this year. Purdy led a 66-yard march, finishing on third down with a 4-yard touchdown pass to CMC for a 23-19 lead with 2:54 left after the extra point was missed.

The 49ers probably should have gone for 2 there as 4 vs. 5 is little difference, and at least if you’re up 6 points, the other team might miss the extra point as we’ve seen Jake Elliott do this year.

Anyways, it was on Hurts to deliver a game-winning drive, which would have been his first in the postseason. It was nearly a four-and-out drive after a horrible drop by Brown on third down. But Dallas Goedert cleaned it up with 15 yards on fourth-and-5. However, once the drive reached the San Francisco 20, things stalled out. The poor pass rush for the 49ers got home for a 1-yard loss on a sack, then Hurts threw three straight incompletions to end the season for the Eagles.

On 4th-and-11, Hurts threw to Goedert with three defenders around him and it was closer to a pick than anything. I’m not sure he had any real other options on the play, but that’s season over there. The 49ers pulled it off.

I was going to reply to a tweet I saw before kickoff about the bad EPA rankings for the 49ers’ defense this year, and I keep hearing the sentiment that they’re a bottom-5 defense, which doesn’t jive with their ranking of 13th in points and 16th in points per drive allowed.

Again, this is an example of how EPA can miss some fundamental information. That’s a stat that can get juiced and heavily inflated by splash plays like sacks and turnovers. So, it’s not a surprise the 49ers don’t look good in EPA when they don’t get many splash plays. But they must be doing something right if they’re usually not getting destroyed on the scoreboard.

Throw in the struggles of the Eagles to play a 60-minute game on offense, and the 49ers always had a good shot of pulling this one out as a low-scoring game you win in the fourth quarter. That’s exactly what happened too.

They can do the same thing in Seattle, a team they’ve held to 13 points in both meetings this year. But we have all week to build up that one.

The Eagles are done. No repeat for them like I foolishly picked on Friday night. But I thought the defense would be better than this as I didn’t see getting killed by Robinson and a touchdown pass from Jennings leading to the end for this team.

Finally, I don’t think it’s hindsight to question why Nick Sirianni didn’t try to get that No. 2 seed last week by beating Washington. Wouldn’t you rather face a banged-up Green Bay team that’s lost four in a row? A team you already beat in a low-scoring game instead of a 49ers team that is well coached and still has some elite players, and they never seem to go one-and-done in the postseason. They can score too with Purdy, so yeah, I think that was a tactical error by Sirianni.

Not to mention getting home-field over Chicago if you’re the No. 2 seed. I didn’t like that decision to rest last week, and I really don’t like it now after what we saw from the Eagles on Sunday.

Chargers at Patriots: Roman, Lend Me Your Ears So I Can Whisper “You’re Fired”

The last NFL team to score 3 points in a playoff game before the Chargers on Sunday night was the Ravens in Buffalo during COVD. Who was the offensive coordinator? Greg Roman. I think we’ve seen enough of him here, and while it’s clearly not all his fault, he’s wasting Justin Herbert’s talent and hasn’t gotten any good results in the big games the last two years. I think they should make him the sacrificial lamb and fire him over this one after the Chargers scored 22 points in the final three games of the season.

Moving onto the quarterback, these Herbert playoff appearances keep getting worse. Now 0-3, I actually think he was better last year when he threw four interceptions (one dropped, one down 20) in Houston compared to this impotent performance with 3 points making the 2025 Patriots look like the 2003 Patriots. The weather wasn’t even an issue.

I also think that Houston game might be messing with him mentally, because how do you not pull the trigger to McConkey on this play early?

You can’t be too worried about throwing picks in a game like this. That’s how you end up scoring 3 points and just running or taking sacks all night because you’re scared of putting the ball 10 yards down the field. Terrible mindset to have in a playoff game.

The thing is the pass protection wasn’t really that bad until it was 16-3 in the fourth quarter. Then Herbert was swarmed and engulfed. But the damage had already been done earlier on the first seven drives.

As for Drake Maye in his first playoff game, he was bad. He was inaccurate against a zone defense. He turned into a sack merchant again, going down 5 times (lost over 6 yards per sack too this time so he wasn’t even mitigating the losses this week), and he should have had two lost fumbles, and the second one could have been an easy touchdown for the Chargers that would have made it an interesting 16-10 game with time. Most of his big plays were blown coverage or huge YAC on a checkdown to Stevenson.

Just not impressed, and objectively I don’t know how people can praise a 16-point performance like this from a quarterback. But it was his first playoff game, and he at least did better in the second half after a poor first half. Just interesting to note that in his second NFL win over a winning team, he had a 6-3 lead at halftime in both games (this and at Buffalo).

There’s also the fact that Vrabel and New England are used to these low-scoring playoff wins.

What’s next, two special teams touchdowns against Houston while Josh Dobbs has to come off the bench and direct a win? Then beating the Rams in the Super Bowl with 13 offensive points? Or is that only reserved for Brady?

Neither the Texans nor Patriots allowed a touchdown this week, so who knows what to expect from that one. But based on this game, I wouldn’t expect a ton of scoring from Maye in the passing game.

But the Chargers are in a tough spot as they need a new OC and they’ll probably lose their DC (Jesse Minter) to a head coaching Job. I’m not sure you can ever trust Herbert in one of these games until he proves he can get the job done. And they’re always on the road because they can seemingly never win this division. The Chiefs won’t be down for long, and the Broncos have a lot of good players and a coach on par with Harbaugh.

The 2025 Chargers had that built-in excuse with the offensive tackles going out, but I’m surprised at how little of a factor that was for three quarters on Sunday. Just played a lot of bad, passive football and that can be even worse than getting aggressive and throwing some picks.

At least they scored more points last year in Houston.

Next week: I always say the divisional round is the best weekend of the NFL year, but it’s got a high bar to clear after what we just saw. It’s also going to try to do it by introducing the top seeds, Seattle and Denver, into the mix. We’ll see if the Texans can sack the Patriots, and Rams vs. Bears could be the shootout of the postseason.

NFL 2025 Wild Card Predictions: Path to Super Bowl 60 Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The 2025 NFL season has been so hard to predict that I wish I could find a way to write off all 14 playoff teams. The good news is 13 of them will lose in the next month, and this is the moment where I make that prediction for the last team standing.

There are so many teams that I feel like you can immediately write off for one huge reason that will inevitably doom them in trying to win 3-4 playoff games in a row:

  • Panthers – They’re just not good enough.
  • Patriots – Schedule merchants who aren’t ready to go the distance
  • Steelers – Tomlin’s playoff defense will eventually implode
  • Texans – Defense is great but that offense is going to tank them eventually
  • Chargers – Offensive line won’t hold up for 4 road wins
  • Broncos – Stagnant offense that waits until the 4th quarter to score will doom them
  • Bears – Way too reliant on D/ST fueling late-game comebacks
  • Packers – Not enough horses to go on No. 7 seed run without Parsons and Kraft

That leaves six teams who I feel can win it all even though they have a glaring issue that concerns me. But it’s something I feel the rest of the team can cover up for a game or two that they can maybe squeak by.

  • Bills – Run defense has been playing better and not sure who in the AFC can really run wild on them.
  • Jaguars – A shame one has to lose Sunday but this could either be Trevor Lawrence’s chance to be Eli/Flacco/Foles or he implodes with too much responsibility
  • Seahawks – I don’t trust Sam Darnold but he probably has the best situation going for him and he almost beat the Rams after throwing 4 INTs because of that team support.
  • 49ers – Still think a core that’s been to two Super Bowls can get back home for SB 60 but the injuries (Bosa, Warner, Pearsall, etc.) make it so tough on the road.
  • Eagles – Yes, their offense should probably have them in the first category, but this is why track record matters and I’m still willing to give the 2-time NFC champs with the reigning SB MVP a shot (defense is better than a year ago too).
  • Rams – Probably played as well as any team has all year but they’ve blown five games and struggle to close and it’s usually the little things (short yardage runs, FG kicking, 4th down stops on D, etc.).

So how do I see it playing out? Many, many ways if I’m being honest. But if you want one version of my vision today, here it goes:

Rams take care of the Panthers, Packers eliminate the Bears, and the Eagles take out the 49ers this weekend in the NFC.

Bills outlast the Jags, the Chargers go chargering in New England, and the Steelers finally win one for Tomlin to take out the best defense.

Seattle survives a scare from Green Bay in the 7-1 matchup, and the Eagles find a way again to deny McVay and Stafford.

Buffalo eliminates Denver for the second year in a row, and the Steelers lose a game they should have won in New England.

Vic Fangio puts Sam Darnold in a blender and he implodes against that secondary like everyone expected him to do.

The Bills do it to the Patriots again at Foxboro as Josh Allen has his first playoff game-winning drive while Maye can’t close again.

Super Bowl 60 is a rematch from Week 17: Bills vs. Eagles but in good weather. However, the Bills’ lack of wideouts hurts them against that defense again, and the Eagles find a way to repeat despite hearing all year how their offense is garbage. But don’t sleep on that defense, and I still think Jalen Hurts has the ability to rise to the occasion with the talent around him to make some necessary plays that he didn’t really have to do last postseason. This time, he gets it done and the Eagles do in fact pull off the repeat.

I don’t love it. In fact, I’d rather see something like Texans vs. 49ers since I bet on it over a month ago, or maybe the Packers do the unthinkable and go to the Super Bowl as the first No. 7 seed after I picked them the last two years to do so.

But this is where I am. I’m also very open to the Rams getting it done by actually closing games out, which would mean getting rid of the Eagles in the divisional round and getting some revenge on Darnold for that blown 16-point lead in what was the game of the year for the regular season. Jacksonville winning this weekend would also throw a huge wrench in my vision, but if that happens, then I really do believe Lawrence can do the Eli/Flacco/Foles thing here.

We’re overdue for one of those anyway, aren’t we?

NFL Wild Card Picks

Already let the cat out of the bag with this weekend’s picks, but for spread purposes, here are my wild card picks:

  • Rams 26, Panthers 20 – That spread (Rams -10.5) is too high but the Rams move on
  • Packers 24, Bears 17- Snow game? Run the ball, GB.
  • Bills 24, Jaguars 20 – Maybe lower scoring than expected, but I think the Bills will have more balanced offense and Lawrence will have a big pick.
  • Eagles 20, 49ers 17 – Lowest scoring game of the week.
  • Patriots 23, Chargers 20 – Dicker the Kicker choke incoming? Does Maye have a Tuck Rule moment in him for his first playoff game?
  • Steelers 26, Texans 23 – More points than expected as Aaron Rodgers finds a way to get it done against the top defense.

This Week’s Articles

Guess I really wrote this ass-backwards this week, but here are links to my final QB rankings of 2025 (won’t be doing anymore until July), Fraud Alert Ratings for 2025 playoff teams, and about 12,000 words in full previews on every Wild Card game.

2025 Final NFL Quarterback Rankings: Matthew Stafford Is the MVP
2025 NFL Fraud Alert Rating: Should We Trust the Bears and Patriots in the Playoffs?
2025 NFC Wild Card Preview: Are We Sleeping on the Philadelphia Eagles Repeating?
2025 AFC Wild Card Preview: Without the Chiefs and Ravens, Things Feel Wide Open This Year
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: 2025 Wild Card Weekend

NFL 2025 Week 17 Predictions: The End of Harbaugh-Lamar Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

While Netflix is traditionally shady about releasing the true ratings of its programming, the NFL probably saw a ratings decline over last Christmas because all three games on Thursday featured a third-string quarterback, and the only team that really had playoff hopes was Denver, who are not a big draw on the national stage at this point.

But in true NFL fashion, the underdogs were 3-0 ATS and the Lions even ended their season in embarrassing fashion by losing 23-10 to the Vikings, who started Max Brosmer at quarterback and finished with 3 net passing yards. That’s the fewest net passing yards in a win since the 2006 Texans were below zero.

That’ll end the fifth year together for Jared Goff and Dan Campbell, and that disappointing result combined with another potentially disastrous ending this weekend for Baltimore had me thinking about the Five-Year Rule again.

This is something I first wrote for FiveThirtyEight in 2017 about how no team has won its first championship after starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than five years.

It’s continued every year since, and you can actually go back to 1950 and it still stands true for all NFL championship-winning duos. Two of the biggest tests to this rule, which I’ve been highlighting for years now in their season previews, are the Bills (Sean McDermott-Josh Allen) and Ravens (John Harbaugh-Lamar Jackson).

They are both in Year 8 together since those quarterbacks were drafted in 2018, and neither has still reached a Super Bowl, let alone won one. Both can blame Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs for hogging up that spot so often as well as going 5-0 in the playoffs against their teams.

But the Chiefs are gone this year. That paves the way for Buffalo and Baltimore, but things have literally never been the same for the Ravens, my preseason SB pick, since Derrick Henry fumbled on opening night in Buffalo and the Ravens blew that 15-point lead in the fourth quarter.

The Ravens have been 1-5, Lamar Jackson was knocked out with that hamstring injury, they were still 6-5 after he struggled upon return, and now they’re 7-8 and facing a must-win game at Green Bay on Saturday night to prevent the Steelers from locking up the AFC North before even having to take the field in Week 17.

Yet, season on the line, and it’s looking like the final meaningful game of the Lamar Jackson-John Harbaugh era won’t even have Jackson on the field after he left last week’s loss against the Patriots with a back injury.

You can talk about Jackson trade rumors, but the fact is Harbaugh is always the one likely to get the boot here after a ton of disappointment in the playoffs since his only ring in 2012. The team’s lack of complementary football this year just might be the final nail in the coffin for Harbaugh after 18 years on the job.

The Five-Year Rule will persist after claiming one of its strongest challengers. We’ll see if it can outlast the pairing of Allen and McDermott too, but if there’s anything clear about this 2025 season, it’s that nothing is a given anymore.

The Broncos are a good bet to get the No. 1 seed and they had to stop Kansas City’s third-string quarterback on a final drive. The Rams are Super Bowl favorites despite already blowing four games, including two games as a 8+ point favorite. They could do it a third time in Atlanta on Monday night, a game that could decide Matthew Stafford’s MVP outcome.

It’s a good thing Stafford and McVay got it done right away in 2021, or else I’d be talking about the Five-Year Rule for them and how this is do or die time for this pairing.

This Week’s Articles

(I’ll add the NFL picks later when posted)

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 17: Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye Do Not Disappoint in Prime-Time MVP Race

NFL Week 17 Predictions

I even said on Twitter that going chalk on Christmas was a bad idea because they’re all big spreads in divisional rematches. Yet I still did it because I hated the slate on paper that much, and yep, the results speak for themselves.

HOU-LAC: My most anticipated game this weekend because it should feel like a playoff game even if that laxed SoFi crowd wouldn’t make it sound like one. But I think it has big implications as AFC West is still in play for the Chargers, and the Texans are rolling with 7 straight wins. I’m going to trust that defense against Herbert’s OL to get it done too.

BAL-GB: Sounds like Jordan Love (concussion) is good to go against Tyler Huntley, so while the Packers are a bad spread bet as a favorite this year, I think they take care of the Ravens here as I just trust LaFleur more than Harbaugh right now.

SEA-CAR: Panthers are 5-1 ATS as a home underdog. If the Titans can lose a 30-24 game to these Seahawks, I have to believe Carolina can keep it close, if not add another shocking upset to their list.

ARI-CIN: Your classic big Jacoby Brissett stat line + failed 4QC/GWD as Burrow piles up numbers in a meaningless game.

TB-MIA: Bucs are in a free-fall, but I’m just going to trust them to pick it up here.

JAX-IND: Should be a good one with points, but I think the Colts are playing awful defense and Trevor Lawrence is cooking for maybe the first time ever in his career.

NE-NYJ: Somehow, the Jets are even worse than they were the last time these teams met.

NO-TEN: Call me crazy but I think the KC win will energize this Tennessee team to go on a little run to end this season even if Shough’s been a better rookie QB than Ward. He does have more to work with, including a coach with a brain.

PIT-CLE: I think this game will be ugly as hell with almost no passes from the Steelers to deny Myles Garrett breaking the sack record against them. But I think they’ll force Shedeur into mistakes that set up scores.

NYG-LV: The Giants have Dart and the Raiders need that No .1 pick more. I’d advise the Raiders to lose this Tank Bowl and secure the No. 1 pick.

PHI-BUF: Both teams would love to run more than pass in this matchup, but if they are forced to pass, I’m still trusting Allen at home more than Hurts on the road.

CHI-SF: 49ers haven’t punted since November and it sounds like George Kittle is playing. 49ers can win out and not have to leave Levi’s all the way through Super Bowl 60. Give me the hot team here over the team that relies on turnovers and insane comebacks.

LAR-ATL: Stafford’s MVP case is sealed or destroyed here. I feel bad for him cause this spread really should not be that high given the way the Rams are struggling on defense, the Davante injury, the Atlanta pass rush, and it’s not hard to see Kirk Cousins dealing with his full weapons and pulling this one out. I’m not sure Stafford can survive a fifth loss and win MVP. His stats aren’t as good or consistent as 2016 Matt Ryan’s were. Just have to hope the Falcons do some Falconing and the Rams prevail.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 14

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I said Sunday could prove to be a franchise-altering day in the AFC, and I think the results speak for themselves.

  • The Colts (8-5) have likely gone from 7-1 and the No. 1 seed to out of the playoffs after losing to the Jaguars again and losing Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles.
  • The Bengals (4-9) blew a snow game in Buffalo that should absolutely give the team the green light to fire Zac Taylor and his entire staff after Joe Burrow and company will miss the playoffs for a third-straight season.
  • The Ravens (6-7) lost at home to the Steelers (7-6), and while the AFC North is hardly decided, Baltimore still has to play the Patriots and Packers (teams competing for No. 1 seeds), and teams they just lost to at home (Bengals and Steelers on the road). If there was ever a season to force John Harbaugh out of town…
  • The Chiefs (6-7) couldn’t finish another close game against a good team and are on life support for the playoffs, needing to win out and for the Colts and Chargers to lose multiple games (actually not that unrealistic). But with how this year has gone, they’d be foolish not to make some major changes for 2026 as their AFC West reign is over and so may be their playoff streak.

I just wrote earlier this week how we’re trying to make sense of the new contenders this year and the unprecedented decline of so many contenders at once.  However, saying teams like the Bengals, Ravens, and Chiefs (Steelers too) need to make big changes for 2026 is not an overreaction to one off year. There have been things festering for multiple years there, and with the teams in dire situations going into Week 15, maybe they’ll finally realize something has to change.

As for the rest of Week 14, a lot of the games were duds as we’ve only had six comeback opportunities. In fact, the only double-digit comeback win of the last two weeks was the Bills over Bengals today, and the only fourth-quarter lead change on Sunday was Joe Burrowing throwing that pick-six in Buffalo.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Texans at Chiefs: Game of the Day

You have to give the 2025 Chiefs credit. If this was their last stand for the playoffs, and that’ll look increasingly likely if the Chargers win on Monday night, then they gave the home crowd all the greatest hits to their season:

  • An embarrassing pass rush when they didn’t blitz, leaving numerous receivers wide open on third-and-longs.
  • No takeaways on defense again.
  • Harrison Butker had about the loudest doink ever on a missed 42-yard field goal.
  • Limited touches for Brashard Smith (a 7-yard run) and Tyquan Thornton (19 yards but also had a touchdown bomb knocked away in the end zone) despite showing solid play.
  • Remember when the first pass of the season was Travis Kelce running into Xavier Worthy in Brazil? The first pass here saw backup left tackle Wanya Morris suffer a game-ending injury, leaving the offensive line without three starters and placing a third-string left tackle (UDFA rookie) in his NFL debut against the No. 1 defense.
  • Mahomes led the team in rushing with 59 yards (they’re 0-4 this year when that happens).
  • Season on the line, a pass from Mahomes went right off of Kelce’s hands for an interception (third time this year).

But there were a couple wrinkles in this performance that made it stand out as the worst loss of them all this season for the Chiefs: Aggression inconsistency and dropped passes.

The Chiefs, even going back to last year, have made a habit of playing games with limited possessions, usually getting 8-9 drives a week, the lowest total in the NFL. This makes it harder on the offense as every mistake gets magnified, but they made it work better last year with clutch plays to close out one-score games. The exact kind of plays they keep failing on this year.

But this game was different. The Chiefs had a season-high 13 possessions as each team had the ball 13 times. That’s because there were a lot of three-and-out drives and quick stops. It wasn’t a game with limited possessions, so the Chiefs could stand to make some mistakes here as the defense played well even after losing top corner Trent McDuffie early.

That’s why Andy Reid’s fourth-down decision making didn’t make any sense. He let the Dallas game beat him twice, because he was criticized in that one for a fourth-down punt in a shootout with Dallas. But this wasn’t a shootout. It was a grind with C.J. Stroud playing ice cold in the second half.

Reid let the offense go for a 4th-and-1 that led to a 2-yard Kareem Hunt touchdown in the third quarter. They needed the touchdown, so that was fine. But two drives later, why settle for the 36-yard field goal on 4th-and-2 at the 18 to tie the game with 1:50 left in the third? Why not be consistent and go for it again with your offense starting to move it well and the defense playing so well? You were getting possessions.

Then the real head-scratcher: 4th-and-1 at your own 31 in a 10-10 game with 10:22 left. The Texans just punted on a 4th-and-1 at their own 35, because they knew what kind of game this was. Why didn’t Reid understand it? Instead, he let the offense go for it, and Mahomes’ pass to Rashee Rice was defended tightly by Stingley, and I couldn’t tell if it was another defensed-dropped or what. But it was a turnover on downs either way.

Now a struggling Houston offense was set up 31 yards away from the end zone, and that gave the Texans new life to get a go-ahead touchdown, which they did. That decision largely killed the Chiefs in this game.

Then in getting the ball back in a 17-10 game, Reid basically did it again, going for a 4th-and-4 at his own 41 where failure almost likely leads to a 10-point deficit with under 5:00 left. Game over against this defense. And once again, Mahomes’ pass to Rice was flat out dropped.

Surprisingly, Houston went three-and-out after that one, giving Mahomes another chance from 92 yards away and 3:44 left. After a short drop by Kelce on first down, Mahomes threw a pass that should have been a first down to him that went off his hands and right to the defense for the third pick of the night. The second one to start the fourth quarter was an arm punt on third down out of FG range and out of 4-down territory, but this one hurt and it’s something Kelce has done three times this year to Mahomes – none bigger than here.

That one was the dagger as the Texans used up most of the clock to add a field goal for a 20-10 lead with 0:30 left. From there, it was just two stat-padding completions to avoid Mahomes finishing a full game with under 150 passing yards for the first time in his career. It was the first time he threw for 3 interceptions and no touchdowns.

But look what it took to get there. Three linemen out, the backup LT going out on play 1, the No. 1 defense on the other side, and a career-high 8 or 9 drops depending how you want to count some of those plays. Those drops combined with some really poor fourth-down decision making by Reid were actually far more damaging to the game than the backup offensive line was. This wasn’t Super Bowl 55 or Super Bowl 59 all over again with constant pass rush.

This was receivers not getting open against good coverage, then when they did, not completing plays as Mahomes has never had this many drops in one game. Just a ridiculous effort in the biggest game of the year for this team.

If this was Kelce’s last playoff-contention type of game in his NFL career, he finishes it with more drops (2) than catches (1) for the first time in his career. I’d say Mahomes might be a little happy on the downlow if Kelce chooses to retire and marry the most famous woman in the world. But then when you tell me Rice, who dropped a big third-and-8 in Dallas last week in a similar clutch situation, is supposed to be his next top target, I think the Chiefs are in some long-term trouble if they don’t sort this out.

On a cold night with both teams feeling the playoff pressure, the Texans stepped up and the Chiefs did not.

Fight or flight. The 2018-24 Chiefs had it in them to get it done in these games. The 2025 Chiefs simply do not, and the shame of it all is people will look at a game like this and still blame it all on the quarterback.

As for the Texans, they have hands down the best defense in the league this season. They were also very good in 2024, so we know this isn’t a fluke. They’ve been to the playoffs the last two years, got to the divisional round both times, and if they keep playing like this, they just might be able to win out until the Super Bowl in this weakened AFC. They might be the closest team we’ve seen to the 2015 Broncos from a decade ago, and yes, Davis Mills did his Brock Osweiler-level job of saving the season with some big wins over the Jags and Bills.

From 0-3 to 8-5, DeMeco Ryans and company deserve a lot of credit for this turnaround. As for Reid and the Chiefs, they aren’t mathematically eliminated, but it sure looks dire even if collapses by the Chargers (see schedule) and Colts (Jones/schedule) are not improbable at all.

What’s improbable is thinking the 2025 Chiefs can ever get through four straight wins without screwing up a game. They haven’t done it all year, and I no longer expect them to.

It’s a lost season.

Steelers at Ravens: The Rivalry Continues, Same As It Ever Was

This may be a selfish reason to want the continued employment of Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh for these teams, but would the Steelers vs. Ravens rivalry be the same without them? Like, imagine these teams go in the opposite direction and hire some dorks trying to cosplay as Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. It just wouldn’t be the same and what makes this such a great rivalry filled with hard-fought, close games.

You can always throw out the records and spreads when these teams play. Did it matter that both played like shit at home in big losses last week where they turned it over and the quarterbacks were brutal? Nope, you ended up with a 27-22 thriller between two multi-time MVPs at quarterback in their first ever meeting.

Aaron Rodgers turned 42 this week but he looked as good as he has all season. He hit a deep ball to DK Metcalf on his first pass after going an entire month without a pass completed over 20 yards down the field. I want to say he had four in this game alone. He also scored his first rushing touchdown in over four years on a third-down scramble. His movement looked much better this week as if he got a Lazarus Pit to celebrate his 42nd birthday.

Then again, the Baltimore defense has been known to help quarterbacks perk up as Rodgers passed for a season-high 284 yards while taking no sacks. He also had no running game as the Steelers finished with 15 carries for 34 yards for him. Meanwhile, the Ravens rushed for 217 yards in the loss, producing this hilarious statistic about losing a game with a huge rushing margin:

That’s Steelers vs. Ravens in the 2020s for you. More accurately, that’s the Lamar Jackson era as to this day you still have to question Jackson’s arm and ability in games like this, another big one with first place in the AFC North on the line and the Ravens having a tougher remaining schedule.

Jackson won his last two starts against the Steelers in 2024, but his rest of career numbers and moments have been poor to say the least. In this game, he didn’t break 100 passing yards until the fourth quarter as the Ravens were leaning on the ground game with Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell also broke a 55-yard run.

There were some bright moments for Jackson in the fourth quarter, but the Ravens never put it together for a touchdown drive while the Steelers floundered on offense late. There was a go-ahead touchdown to Isaiah Likely that was ruled a drop after Joey Porter Jr. helped knock the ball out before Likely got a third foot down or did a football move. That was a tough call without great clarity from the NFL on what a catch is in 2025.

That drive ended in no points, because after the Likely mistake on first down, the Steelers stopped Henry twice, then Mark Andrews possibly got in the way of a Jackson pass on fourth down intended for DeAndre Hopkins in the back of the end zone with 2:22 left.

But given one more chance with 1:56 left and 74 yards to go, Jackson led a very poor two-minute drill, taking 69 seconds just to move the ball 8 yards. Reaching the Pittsburgh 30 with 9 seconds left, any shot at a Hail Mary was denied when Alex Highsmith sacked Jackson to end the game and give the Steelers a 7-6 record and first place.

The Ravens have struggled to play complementary football all season, and Sunday was no different. Pittsburgh finally won a big game this year without relying on a ton of turnovers on defense. Rodgers was excellent for three quarters, and if Likely wasn’t in a funk with the end zone, it may have been wasted again by the defense.

But the Steelers have been getting the best of this rivalry, especially when the games are at their closest. That’s also why I had full confidence in Pittsburgh still finishing with a winning record, because I knew they’d never get swept by Baltimore, especially not this Baltimore team.

Now we’ll see if they can build on this win and take advantage of a home game with Miami next week. Maybe even get a break with the Bengals possibly sweeping Baltimore on Sunday to create more separation.

But the sportsbooks have finally come around to making the Steelers the favorites (-160 at FanDuel) to win the AFC North over Baltimore (+170) and Cincinnati (+1300). There’s a reason almost every 1-5 team fails to come all the way back to make the playoffs.

The Ravens are just too mistake prone this year. Similar to the Chiefs in that regard, another team in the AFC they can’t seem to beat when they have to.

Bears at Packers: Ben Johnson Was Right Again

Ever since the Bears hired coach Ben Johnson, he has done an incredible job of saying the right things time and time again. He just probably wishes he wasn’t right when he said last week that the 9-3 Bears are winning in spite of their passing game with Caleb Williams.

On Sunday in Green Bay with the No. 1 seed on the line and the lead in the NFC North, Johnson was very prescient as Williams struggled mightily early on while Jordan Love had some key passes down the field for big plays (including third downs) that paced the Packers to numerous leads in a game they never trailed.

But Williams did make some of his best plays late, and even tied the game in the fourth quarter before the Packers marched for a game-winning touchdown. I predicted a 27-20 win by Green Bay, and they were up 28-21 late with Williams driving for what could have been his sixth comeback in the final 2:00 this year as you had to think Johnson probably goes for 2 on the road the way he is from the Dan Campbell school of thought.

But after the run got stuffed on 3rd-and-1, Williams blew a good play call with a bad throw on fourth down and it was intercepted in the end zone to end the game. Just like that, the Bears (9-4) fell from the No. 1 to the No. 7 seed.

These teams will meet again in 12 days, but Williams is going to need to be a lot more efficient if the Bears are going to get a split here.

Bengals at Bills: Mr. Perfect Until He Has to Be

I can say this about most quarterbacks, but Joe Burrow is actually more likeable than his annoying fans make him out to be. Watching him on those shows like Quarterback S2 or Hard Knocks In-Season with the AFC North, you can see he’s a football junkie, a Batman fan, and just wants to win games. This league is also in need of a pocket passer who can still frequently throw for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns without being a play-action merchant.

But where things get annoying with Burrow is the nonstop nicknames and the way the media has shoved him into conversations he doesn’t belong, or pretended that he’s a clutch player. I saw the “Joe Brrr” notification from the NFL app before Sunday’s snow game in Buffalo, and it was just earlier this week where I again pointed out that Burrow and his top wide receiver duo simply don’t win games in the clutch or shootouts despite being the most expensive trio in NFL history.

Burrow also has just one comeback win in the final 8:00 of a game in his career, and Sunday was no different. My other issues with Burrow stem from him being a sack merchant, often getting into trouble by looking for the big play. It should go against his nature as a perfectionist, which I think gets him into trouble in games where things don’t go well. He’ll let it snowball and not recover from a big mistake.

It all happened again on Sunday when Burrow went from playing a really fine game in Buffalo in the snow with four touchdowns on the first six drives. It was like he picked right up where he left off with his success against the Bills in 2022-23.

But one fateful pass from the Buffalo 33 with 5:35 left, leading 28-25, changed everything for the Bengals. Burrow tried to throw a quick pass, did a weird shot-put delivery on it, and Christian Benford was there for the 63-yard pick-six to put the Bills ahead 32-28.

Is Burrow so sick of me pointing out he has one comeback win in the last 8:00 that he tried to create a situation for himself to succeed? Then on the very next play, he got picked again on a battled ball at the line. The Bills took over at the Cincinnati 29, and of course Josh Allen, who got Dalton Kincaid back at a good time, was going to take advantage of the No. 32 defense on a short field by throwing another touchdown on fourth down.

Burrow answered quickly with his fourth touchdown pass to cut it to 39-34 with 2:13 left. That drive is another example of why stats that ignore the scoreboard show Burrow doing well in this situation when it was the two drives before this that mattered more when he had the picks.

But even after his defense sacked Allen to bring up 3rd-and-15, they gave up another 17-yard scramble to Allen, who also took off for a 40-yard touchdown earlier with inexplicably no defender in sight of his path to the end zone.

This was a very winnable game for the Bengals on the road to keep their season alive, but Burrow picked the worst time to make his worst play of the year. He crumbled instead of finishing the game, and given his history, it’s not that surprising.

He’s just not proven to be a closer yet, and this will be his third-straight missed postseason.

I still contend this is the worst Buffalo team since 2019, but if this is an AFC where they don’t have to worry about the Chiefs at all, don’t have to worry about going to Baltimore, and don’t have to worry about these Bengals, then Allen has no excuses left to not get to a Super Bowl.

Letting Drake Maye, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, or C.J. Stroud get there before Allen does would be disastrous to his legacy.

Colts at Jaguars: Indiana Is Cursed in 2025

I was all in on the Jaguars to win this one despite being a 1.5-point home underdog. But you have to see Daniel Jones tear his Achilles on a different leg than the one he had the fractured fibula with. I’m not a doctor, so I can’t comment if that may have led to this the way Tyrese Haliburton’s calf injury led to his Achilles in the NBA Finals, but it’s just been that kind of cursed year for Indiana sports teams. Caitlin Clark also had a season-ending groin injury in a year her Fever had a shot in the playoffs.

The Colts would have had a shot in this AFC if they were healthy, but between Jones going down and Sauce Gardner getting injured shortly after they traded for him, it’s been a brutal stretch for the Colts. From 7-1 to 8-5 and little hope with that tough schedule left.

Worse, they don’t even have a healthy (even if temporarily healthy) Anthony Richardson to go to and see if he can give them anything for the playoff run. They might have to snag Joe Flacco away from the Bengals somehow.

But give credit to the Jaguars. They scored a lot of points on short fields set up by the defense like they’ve been doing this year. I actually think they can get to 12-5 given the schedule, which includes another game with battered Indy.

Crazy how you can go from 7-1 and averaging over 3.0 points per drive to potentially finishing with a losing record and an offense that’s barely top 10, if that, when you consider the Colts have to play the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans.

Saints at Buccaneers: Tyler Shough Can Move Like That?

With all due respect to Taysom Hill, I don’t think your services are needed anymore in New Orleans. If Tyler Shough can move like that on his two rushing touchdowns in Tampa Bay, then there’s no reason he can’t keep the ball on some of those snaps they give to Hill.

Shough’s second touchdown run also completed the first game-winning drive of his NFL career as the Saints (+8.5) completed the 24-17 upset on the road despite the Bucs having more healthy weapons for Baker Mayfield, who struggled in this one.

But I would still argue Tampa Bay pissed this one away more than the Saints won it. Tampa Bay finished 2-of-7 on fourth down, so when you get 11 drives and end five of them on fourth down (plus one pick), that’s really brutal offense, and it’s not like these were 4th-and-desperate situations late in the game.

I don’t know if Todd Bowles wanted a bow with his points to take them, or if he thought this was the right strategy as these were the five fourth-down failures:

  • 1Q, tied 7-7, 4th-and-1 at NO 45: Bucky Irving lost 7 yards on a run.
  • 2Q, up 10-7, 4th-and-1 at NO 49: Tucker stuffed for no gain on a run.
  • 2Q, up 10-7, 4th-and-15 at NO 47: Mayfield incomplete pass (I guess they weren’t confident in the 65-yard field goal in the conditions)
  • 4Q, tied 17-17, 4th-and-2 at NO 46: Mayfield incomplete pass to Godwin (Saints drove for game-winning touchdown from there).
  • 4Q, down 24-20, 4th-and-4 at TB 26: Mayfield 3-yard pass to Cade Otton for a turnover on downs to end game.

The last one is obvious, the one before halftime makes sense given the field position, I guess. But those three short ones at midfield, out of field goal range, and not in a bad situation on the scoreboard? Might have been able to argue they should punt there and put the rookie QB on a long field.

The Buccaneers and Panthers are both 7-6 with two matchups to come. This thing is far from over in the NFC South if the Bucs are going to keep playing with their food like this.

Commanders at Vikings: For Who, For What?

I’ll never understand what the Commanders were doing with Jayden Daniels in 2025. He had a few injuries as a rookie, but his elbow injury this year was not necessary as it happened after Dan Quinn kept him in a blowout against Seattle far too long.

Then given this team was 3-9 and hadn’t won since Week 5, what’s the point of even playing him again this year? He returned Sunday, he was rusty against a complex defense, and he re-injured his elbow on an interception return play. Now they’ll probably sit him for the rest of the year, but he should have been on the bench in the Seattle blowout and this elbow stuff never should have happened.

You have to protect your best asset. I’m not sure Quinn makes it to 2026 as the defense didn’t get any better despite that being the side they needed to fix desperately. Now the offense is messed up as well.

Seahawks at Falcons: Road Warriors Strike Again

This was actually a 6-6 game at halftime before the Seahawks blew it open in the third quarter with Rashid Shaheed scoring his first Seattle touchdown on a 100-yard kickoff return, then a Bijan Robinson fumble led to the first of two JSN touchdown catches as the rout was on.

The Seahawks (10-3) have been strong on the road all year, and now they get to face the Colts without Daniel Jones before their huge Thursday night rematch with the Rams in Week 16 when they’ll have a chance to take the NFC West lead.

Broncos at Raiders: The Worst Beat of the Year

Given how horrible the Broncos were on offense in the 10-7 win against this team last month, you have to give them credit here. Granted, 7 of the 24 points were a punt return touchdown, but they only had 7 possessions in this game and they gained 81, 41, 47, 91, and 90 yards on the five drives that weren’t limited by the clock and situation at the end of each half. They were sustaining drives with ease.

Some bettors just wish they would have gained 4 more yards on their last snap, because that left enough time for the Raiders, who trailed 24-14 with as little as 0:05 left, get into field goal range after an absurd penalty for trying to stay on top of a receiver who was down extended the game one more down. Then Pete Carroll decided to kick the 46-yard field goal, it was good with 0:00 left, and the Raiders (+7.5) covered the spread in a ridiculous 24-17 final.

I’ve had a pretty good spread week (8-5 ATS), but that was definitely the worst beat of the season on one of these.

Rams at Cardinals: Someone’s Winning in Fantasy on These Cardinal Blowouts

You just know there’s someone out there winning their fantasy league or taking down DFS contests (they still run those, right?) by stacking Jacoby Brissett and Michael Wilson (11/142/2 on Sunday). All that sweet volume and very little real-life NFL value because they either get blown out like they did here to the Rams (45-17), or they come up short in the fourth quarter of a one-score loss.

But this one was the blowout as the Rams led 45-10 at one point. Big bounce-back effort after last week’s loss in Carolina.

Titans at Browns: Shedeur Gets Some Stats, Cam Ward Gets the Win

This Toilet Bowl between the Titans (1-11) and Browns (3-9) actually proved to be far more interesting and nuanced than most Week 14 games. I can’t believe I’m about to write as many words on a Week 14 game between these teams as I am.

It was in theory a matchup of what were supposed to be the top two quarterbacks in the 2025 draft before Shedeur Sanders fell to the fifth round. I knew he’d try to shine in this one against the worst team in football, and to some extent, he did. Sanders finished with 364 passing yards, 3 touchdown passes, 1 touchdown run, 1 interception, and he led a comeback attempt in the final 5:00 that came up a hideous 2-point conversion try short of tying the game.

Meanwhile, Cam Ward only completed 14-of-28 passes for 117 yards, 2 touchdowns, and one pick against that tough Cleveland defense. But Myles Garrett, much like last week against the 49ers, got the lone sack for the defense.

It was also another game where the rest of the team sold out the defense with poor field position as the Titans had touchdown drives of 53, 38, and 8 yards as well as a 6-yard field goal drive without a first down gained.

But late in the game with the Titans up 31-17 thanks to those short fields (and a big day for Tony Pollard with 161 yards and two scores), we saw the shortcomings of the new down 14 strategy that I was just questioning last week. What happens if a team misses both conversions and is still down 2 late? That’s what happened to Cleveland in large part because they called a weird trick play for the final one instead of letting Sanders do something more conventional.

Let’s just note that Cleveland scored that second touchdown with 1:03 left. That left plenty of time to recover an onside kick and win the field goal as I said teams will do in the NFL as  you can’t really time out when you get a touchdown. Then had the Browns made the first 2PC, if you score with 1:03 left, look at how much time that leaves the Titans to go get a game-winning field goal with the new kickoff rules and the improved range for kickers with the new k-balls. The same is true if they had only tied the game at 31.

So again, I understand why teams do the down 14 thing. I just don’t think it’s all that advantageous because of what it does to the game state. For one, I don’t like the prospects of having to convert a do-or-die 2PC at any point in the game, so I’d rather avoid that. Then if you get the first one and you’re down 6, that should trigger the opponent to try better to add to the lead or run out the clock than if they had the cushion of a 7-8 point lead. Then there’s the end-game scenario of taking a 1-point lead quite possibly with plenty of time for the other team to use 4-down football to set up a game-winning field goal.

Yeah, I’m just never going to be a big fan of that, and games like this make it look even less attractive to me. Going to overtime has never actually been less scary than it is now with the new rules there. There’s no real sudden death unless you majorly fuck up like a pick-six or safety on the first drive.

Alas, this was the Toilet Bowl, so it didn’t really matter what these teams did. Just a game with far more points – I believe the total closed at a season-low 33.0 – and intrigue than it ever deserved to have for Week 14.

Also, it’s going to make the Shedeur cult even crazier because he’s delivering the big plays they said he would in the NFL. Just don’t let them hear that some have been filled with YAC, or that he’s only done it against the two worst NFL teams this season (Vegas and Titans) and lost 26-8 to a San Francisco team that was missing its two best defenders.

Cults don’t like pesky facts like that.

Dolphins at Jets: The Streaks Continue

He didn’t have to do much in this one, but Tua Tagovailoa is now 7-0 as a starter against the Jets after the Dolphins quickly opened up a 21-0 lead and held on for the 34-10 win. The Jets were stuck playing UDFA rookie Brady Cook from Missouri after a Tyrod Taylor injury.

With the loss, the Jets (3-10) have been eliminated from the playoffs for the 15th season in a row, the longest active drought in the four major American sports leagues.

Next week: The Week 15 schedule is decent even if the island games are not. The Bucs need to pick things up at home against Atlanta on Thursday night. We’ll see a Baltimore-Cincy rematch from Thanksgiving that’s lost some luster with both losing Sunday. Chargers-Chiefs could be similar if the Chargers lose on Monday night. Bills-Patriots is the big one, and we’ll see if NE can win the AFC East or if Buffalo can try to repeat its 2021 success by coming back to beat them and eventually destroying them in the wild card.

Green Bay vs. Denver is decent for a non-conference game between possible No. 1 seeds. Lions at Rams might be more fun to watch for three quarters though. Colts should get rocked in Seattle. I’ll be writing this early while we’re stuck with Cowboys vs. Vikings on SNF. Steelers usually win at home on MNF, and Miami usually loses on the road under McDaniel to .500+ teams, but we’ll see how that one goes to end the week now that the Steelers will get props this week instead of being in that underdog role.

NFL 2025 Week 14 Predictions: The Day the Whole AFC Went Away Edition

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It’s a really critical NFL Week 14 in the AFC with games like Colts vs. Jaguars, Bengals vs. Bills, Steelers vs. Ravens, and Texans vs. Chiefs.

It could be the day we circle back to as the day the Colts blew their shot in the AFC South, or the day the Steelers set themselves on the path to their first losing record since 2003, or even the day the Chiefs fell to 6-7 and went on to miss the playoffs.

Or it could jumpstart those teams on a run to the playoffs. We’ll just have to watch and see what happens today.

This Week’s Articles

Who Are the Super Bowl Contenders and Pretenders in This Wild 2025 NFL Season?
2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 14: Joe Burrow Returns Just As Lamar Jackson’s Season Is Falling Apart in AFC North
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 14

The first link is a 6,000-word review of where the contenders stand right now, and why 2025 has been such a weird year for so many favorites struggling. Lots of talk about regression in turnovers, close games, and easy schedules.

The QB rankings look at Joe Burrow’s odd return, the curious case of Bryce Young, and the Vikings somehow found a quarterback even worse than J.J. McCarthy.

The NFL Week 14 picks have more detailed picks in what I like for Colts-Jags, Steelers-Ravens, Texans-Chiefs, and who I like to throw for more yards between Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward.

NFL Week 14 Predictions

Those Cowboys tricked me again. Same old Dallas: Allowed 44 points in a must-win type of game, George Pickens played poorly, and now they have to hope for the Eagles to collapse, which is possible this year.

MIA-NYJ: Is Tua really 7-0 against the Jets? Let’s make it 8-0.

SEA-ATL: Seahawks can be tricky with the spread but I think a 7-point win from that defense isn’t asking for much. They should make it hard on Kirk Cousins.

NO-TB: Bucs already beat them decisively on the road and have more weapons available now. Backdoor cover is always a possibility but I think they score enough to win by 10+ and get the sweep.

WAS-MIN: It sounds like Jayden Daniels is back, so I’m going with him to end this losing streak for the Commanders.

IND-JAX: Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014 and I think that streak lasts another year. Offense is struggling and the Jags can get the turnovers/pressure and have been scoring 25+ every week since the bye.

PIT-BAL: The old hedge pick, you never know with this rivalry that loves 3-point games. It sounds like we are getting Aaron Rodgers vs. Lamar Jackson for the first (last?) time in the NFL, though neither comes in playing that well. Can the Steelers stop Derrick Henry after giving up 249 yards last week? I’d be more inclined to pick the Steelers if they didn’t already look bad in their last two games against the Ravens, who seem to have their QB on the right page to deal with this overpaid, disappointing defense.

TEN-CLE: It doesn’t really say anything about Sanders vs. Ward to me. Just says the Browns have better coaching and a much better defense.

CIN-BUF: I’m hedging again as I think the Bengals had the Bills’ number in 2022-23, though we haven’t seen any other matchups outside of that. But the Bills are usually a home winner. They just rarely make it look pretty this year, and the Bengals have been playing better defense the last few games.

DEN-LV: We had to sit through their garbage 10-7 game on TNF a few weeks back. Hard to imagine the Denver offense makes it look that bad again in the afternoon window.

CHI-GB: Packers are home, Jayden Reed is back, and I think they find a way to win by 7 as I just don’t trust the Chicago passing game enough against a defense that has stepped up to most occasions this year. I know Chicago played them well last year, high stakes with the No. 1 seed up for grabs, and GB has been bad at covering spreads like this. But something just tells me GB 27-20.

LAR-ARI: Cardinals have played a lot of teams tough before losing. But I think the Rams roll and show last week was just a blip.

HOU-KC: I believe after Super Bowl 59 I said the next time the Chiefs had to face an elite defense without multiple OL starters, I can’t trust them to win anymore. Here we are, season likely on the line, and they get the No. 1 Houston defense in a game where they’ll be down 3 OL starters, including both tackles. That’s brutal timing, and the Texans are playing well too as a team. Chiefs play much better at home on defense which should be the key to grinding this one out. But Houston has held all but two teams under 21 points, so it’s just a really hard defense to score on and I could already see Nico Collins converting some 3rd-and-12 catch to ice the clock in a 20-17 final for the Texans. Prove me wrong, KC.

PHI-LAC: Going with the Eagles to end their 2-game slide. I still don’t trust the Chargers in games like this and Herbert is only a week removed from surgery. Think he panics to avoid a hit and gets picked.

NFL 2025 Week 12 Predictions: As the AFC Turns Edition

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We’re only one game into NFL Week 12 and it’s already a big result as the Houston Texans (6-5) proved they have the best defense this season, and they’re finally above .500 for the first time this season and back in the playoff hunt.

Meanwhile, I warned Buffalo fans all offseason that they would have to deal with turnover regression while not doing a ton to really improve the roster of a team that feasted on fumble recoveries, a schedule that saw them go 2-3 against winning teams, superior field position, and a historically low number of negative plays on offense that never felt sustainable with a quarterback known for his gunslinger ways.

Did I still ultimately buy into the Buffalo hype and predict them to finish as the No.1 seed? Yes. But I never had them going to the Super Bowl this year, and after Thursday night’s loss, it sure looks like they’ll have a hard time winning three straight road games to get there as the Patriots (9-2) are the team that’s taking advantage of an even easier schedule (3 games vs. 4th-place teams compared to first-place schedule) and should win the division.

But nothing is decided yet as we continue to see this weird AFC season where the Patriots, Colts, and Broncos have the best records, and it’s not looking good for the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bills to win those divisions and maybe not even make the playoffs in 2025.

We get a huge game in Kansas City this weekend with the Colts (8-2) coming off a bye week. I did a little preview in the NFL picks piece below for that one, but it’s such an intriguing matchup as the Colts have a lot of things in their favor:

  • Colts use a lot of play-action passing, which the Chiefs have been horrible against on defense.
  • Colts have Jonathan Taylor in peak mode, and the Chiefs have allowed James Cook to rush for over 100 this year.
  • Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has been one of the best at making things difficult for Mahomes and the offense.
  • Ability to play man coverage vs. KC wideouts with Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward (back healthy).
  • Colts had a bye week to prepare for the Chiefs, who have been labeled as predictable in recent losses to Bills and Broncos.

Alas, the Colts have been giving up sacks lately, and the Chiefs need to dial up blitzes and rely on the crowd noise to bother Daniel Jones, who was listed with a calf injury this week. Does his mobility get compromised and that leads to some sacks and takeaways for a KC defense that plays much better at home? We’ll see. Offense also needs to run the ball more when given so many light boxes, and they have ran it well in the last two meetings with Anarumo’s Bengals defenses.

It’s a huge game as a win can legitimize the Colts even more in the AFC. It could also spark the Chiefs to go on a run all the way through the postseason too. A lot on the line.

I wish that game was on at 4:25 PM as I’ll be stuck watching Bears vs. Steelers, which has a one-score game written all over it even if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play. I’m thinking he will though since it is his last crack at the Bears and the injury isn’t to his throwing hand. But that’s a tough game with the leading defenses in turnovers, and that’s another pivotal one as the Steelers winning as a road underdog would be another blow to Baltimore’s hopes of storming back from 1-5 to win the AFC North.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 12: The Chiefs Are Failing Patrick Mahomes in a Down Year for Quarterback Play
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 12

In the QB rankings this week, I talk about how the Chiefs are failing Patrick Mahomes by going in the opposite direction of QB dependence in a league that is increasingly about making it easier on the QB. Also talked about the sobering losses for the Seahawks and Lions as you just can’t trust Sam Darnold and Jared Goff in big games.

For the picks, I got a Colts-Chiefs parlay, and I say go nuts and bet on the sack props in Raiders vs. Browns.

NFL Week 12 Predictions

Yeah, I thought the Bills could win by a TD, but at least I was right about the under.

NE-CIN: It sounds like Joe Flacco is going to start again instead of Joe Burrow. Not sure I’d change my pick there because I think without Ja’Marr Chase, it’ll be hard to keep up with the Patriots when Cincy has the worst defense in the NFL.

PIT-CHI: Like I said, I think it’s a very close game, and the Bears have been pulling those off this year better than Pittsburgh. Just feels like a Tomlin letdown spot on the road.

NYJ-BAL: Unless I read a parody account, it sounds like Justin Fields has been benched for Tyrod Taylor. Good news. Ravens should still win but I like a backdoor cover for the Jets.

SEA-TEN: I just can’t see the Titans topping 14 points here unless Darnold keeps throwing picks to give them short fields. Seattle should bounce back here.

NYG-DET: No Jaxson Dart. I think the over is a good pick as the Lions should pile up points on a horrible defense in the dome. Less confident in the spread as Jameis could be good for the backdoor.

MIN-GB: Packers haven’t covered these big spreads all year, but from what I’ve seen of J.J. McCarthy, he isn’t going to play well on the road in Lambeau. Give me GB to finally cover one.

IND-KC: Ah, I hedged with the classic Chiefs win but don’t cover. Colts really could win it outright, but I’ll give the Chiefs one more bone at home in a virtual must-win situation. But the Colts have been a thorn in their side for 30 years.

CLE-LV: I’ll take Maxx Crosby and the Raiders to win the sack fest.

JAX-ARI: No real vibe on this one. Think Brissett moves the ball better than Lawrence and the Cardinals find a way at home.

ATL-NO: Another one I don’t have any strong lean for. Falcons are due a win. Turn the offense over to the run game and sack the inexperienced QB in his 3rd start.

PHI-DAL: I like the Philly offense to get on track against that defense and for the Philly defense to slow down Dak and those receivers.

TB-LAR: McVay usually has a good feel for what Bowles is doing. Still not enough weapons for the Bucs. I’ll take the Rams at home by 7.

CAR-SF: Biggest game for the Panthers in years. I think they can keep it close but I like a low-scoring game here.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 5

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It only took until Week 5, but we’ve reached that point in the NFL season where “no team is great” and everyone has a loss. Everyone has a win too, except for the Jets. As Artie Lange once said, there are times where girls won’t fvck you, but the Jets will always fvck you.

But I knew Sunday would be a crazy day when so many games had a small spread, and some of those games actually were among the biggest blowouts. This was one of the worst weeks I’ve ever had at picking winners as I’m 4-9 heading into MNF with the Chiefs left.

Definitely the kind of day that should make you reevaluate everything from the MVP to John Harbaugh’s job status in Baltimore to who might win the AFC East. The remaining members of the 1972 Dolphins could pop the champagne tonight, and the 1976 Buccaneers, 2008 Lions, and 2017 Browns are warming up the Faygo bottles for the 2025 Jets.

We’ve had eight games with a comeback opportunity this week, but it’s very interesting to note that Sunday had five double-digit comeback wins after zero in Week 4 and five in Weeks 1-3 combined.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Patriots at Bills: AFC East Game of the Year Decade?

The good news is we still have an AFC East race in 2025 between the Patriots and Bills. The bad news is the Bills may have just given the Patriots and their fanbase the relevance they’ve been seeking again for the past few years.

In the first half, both teams looked like they have been taking advantage of weak schedules and weren’t ready for primetime. Lots of penalties by Buffalo, and the Bills even coughed up two fumbles, including the first one by a non-quarterback (Keon Coleman) since the 2024 season started.

That contributed to the Bills losing the turnover battle 3-1, ending their record 26-game streak of not losing the turnover battle. But even those two early fumbles only led to a New England field goal as the Patriots gave one right back with Rhamondre Stevenson, who is known for that. At least he redeemed himself with two touchdowns.

Yes, the second half was like night and day as the offenses actually strung together scoring drives. Josh Allen had a bad pick in the red zone late in the third quarter on a night where James Cook was held in check. That led to a touchdown and 20-10 lead in the fourth quarter for New England.

In his first prime-time game, Drake Maye was nothing special in the first half. But he came of age in the second half with some brilliant throws that do look like a younger Josh Allen when he was breaking out in 2020. Except there was a hostile crowd in the background this time as Maye led the Patriots on scoring marches of 74, 90, and 37 yards in the second half.

Even after Buffalo tied the game at 20, Maye didn’t blink despite being 0-6 on previous game-winning drive attempts in his career. I thought his broken tackle to get a pass away to an incredible game from Stefon Diggs on the drive’s opening play was the best play of them all as a sack here could have blew things up in regulation.

Then he followed that up with a perfect 19-yard throw down the sideline. I wasn’t sure if New England’s rookie kicker was going to deliver, but maybe sixth-round pick Andres Borregales is about to start his own legacy after he was perfect on a 52-yard kick with 15 seconds left. Adam Vinatieri would be proud of that one, and I don’t think Stephen Gostkowski ever had one that significant in his long career.

The Bills didn’t have enough time to answer and took the loss to ensure we wouldn’t see any team start 5-0 this year. The Bills were only able to score 20 points on 10 drives as it’s a lot harder to score efficiently when you lose some fumbles and have poor average field position at your own 23 on the night.

The penalty yardage also cracked 90 for both teams, so it was a sloppy performance all around for both that I’m sure they’d like to improve on. But it wasn’t a fluky upset by any means like when the 2021 Patriots won by completing 2 passes on a windy night in Buffalo. The Bills haven’t been that sharp these last few games, and the Patriots made them pay for it.

I will say it’s not a great sign if the Bills need a double-digit comeback in the fourth quarter at home when they face a team that’s even remotely competent like Baltimore (Week 1 version) and now New England. The schedule is of course their crutch, but the Patriots get a very similarly easy schedule, and they don’t have to play the Chiefs, Texans, or Eagles. They get the Raiders, Giants, and Titans.

Granted, the Patriots already lost to the Raiders in Week 1, but this win should really boost their confidence. What they can’t do is let this be the peak of their season as the game was obviously personal (his word, not mine) for Stefon Diggs, who played a fantastic game in his return to Buffalo.

There’s a lot of season left, and the AFC East isn’t out of reach now that you got this win in Buffalo. But the great teams, the Patriots of old, they would build on this win and get a streak going. The Patriots have the Saints, Titans, and Browns next. Let’s see if they can get to 6-2 or not.

Maybe the oddsmakers weren’t crazy when they had this team favored in 11 games in May when the earliest lines came out. But as this game and many of the other games in Week 5 around the league showed, no one is great enough to just run the table anymore. It’s a week-to-week league, and this week the Patriots were a little better than Buffalo.

Remember, both of these teams almost lost to the Dolphins. No super teams in 2025. Game on.

Broncos at Eagles: Where Did That Come From?

We’re getting some solid evidence that Nick Sirianni is only as good as his coordinators he relies on so much. Vic Fangio stayed after the Super Bowl win, and his defense was awesome for three quarters on Sunday, forcing seven punts on eight drives while only giving up a field goal.

But in the fourth quarter, the Broncos flipped the script with three scoring drives for 18 points, including a curious decision to go for two by Sean Payton when it was a 17-16 game instead of earlier when the Broncos were down 14 as most teams like to do it. It all ended up working out, but I’m not sure the process was the best there.

Speaking of bad process, what the hell is the Philadelphia offense this year? The offensive coordinator (Kevin Patullo) is clearly in over his head as he can’t seem to strike any balance at all. The Eagles either throw the ball short the whole game, or like in this game, they neglect the run altogether.

How does Saquon Barkley get 6 carries for 30 yards to 46 plays for Jalen Hurts in a game you led 17-3 in the fourth quarter? How? Sure, the wideouts bitched about their targets last week, and that star duo got 18 targets this week. Technically, more like 19 as A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith were caught fighting over the incomplete Hail Mary to end the game in the most fitting fashion ever.

But all the passing this week didn’t help the Eagles score any points on their last five drives after that great big pass play to Barkley for a touchdown that made it 17-3. Denver finally clamped down and got multiple sacks on Hurts.

Before Denver’s final field goal, I think the late hit penalty on Zack Baun was iffy since the runner was still trying to churn forward for the yard he needed, so I understand why Baun did the hit. I also don’t think this type of late hit gets called that often.

Having said that, in hindsight, it may have helped the Eagles get a chance to win the game. Had there been no flag, the Broncos would face 4th-and-inches there. I have to think Sean Payton goes for it to end the game as 1 yard would run out the clock with the Eagles down to their last timeout. Either they call it right away or right after the 2-minute warning, but either way, if the Broncos convert 4th-and-1 with a running clock, the game is over right there.

So, that’s one way to think about the Baun call not deciding the game as I don’t think it did. What the Eagles really needed was another one of those blocked kicks but no such luck this week.

The winning streak is over, and the Eagles are going to have to play much better than this. They’ve gotten away with things for four weeks, but the Broncos had enough tricks up their sleeve to get past this team in Philly.

More will do it to them too if they don’t sort this offense out. 18 points shouldn’t be enough to beat this team, but on Sunday, it was good enough.

Texans at Ravens: Ruh-Roh

When you put Baltimore’s injuries this way, maybe I was foolish to pick them to beat a Houston team that also didn’t want to start 1-4 and can play strong defense.

But 44-10? What a walloping from a Houston team that was stuck in a 6-0 slugfest with the Titans to start the fourth quarter a week ago. I just hope people don’t act like this is all Lamar Jackson being out as the Ravens clearly are missing top players in the trenches, the secondary, linebacker Roquan Smith, and Derrick Henry (15 carries for 33 yards) just hasn’t been the same guy since the Buffalo fumble on opening night.

The final stat line for Cooper Rush is going to look bad with 3 interceptions, but he had 2 incompletions at a time when the Texans had already scored three touchdowns. The picks came later as the Texans scored on their first eight drives before calling the dogs off.

With the Rams coming up next and some of these injuries lingering, I’m not sure coach John Harbaugh can make it to next season at this rate. They might just say you’ve had enough cracks at it, we’re going in a different direction. Though, I’m not sure how many coaches would do well with a team missing this many highly-paid players.

The non-quarterback skill positions are where the Ravens are at their healthiest, but those players usually aren’t worth a lick if you don’t have a good quarterback or tackle to get them the ball.

Houston clearly viewed this as a get-right game and C.J. Stroud and company were excellent. He knew to get the ball out fast after past struggles to score any touchdowns in three games against this defense.

But that defense on Sunday? That’s not the Baltimore defense I know. I feel like the plane lady. “Those motherfvckers are not real.”

But the 1-4 record? Very real right now.

Buccaneers at Seahawks: Passing Clinic from the 2018 Class

Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold have been playing well this year and last season, but Sunday’s 38-35 shootout took things to another level. You can say it was one of the most efficient passing shootouts we’ve ever seen with the ball rarely hitting the ground.

The kind of game where the last one with the ball wins, but that’s the kind of game you don’t want to get into this year with the Buccaneers, who have now won four games by 1-3 points in five weeks. They turned things around late after trailing by 7 too, and when it looked like Darnold would be the one to drive for the field goal, he hit his lineman in the head with a ball that was then deflected for a crushing interception.

Light work for Mayfield already in field goal range, so the Bucs had an easy one to finish it off for the big win. Seattle’s defense has played so well but had no real answers for the Tampa passing game even without Mike Evans.

Emeka Egbuka continues to be one of the most impressive rookie wideouts you’ll ever see too. Caught all 7 targets for 163 yards and another touchdown. He just plays like he’s a 5-year vet in his absolute prime.

Tough way for the Seahawks to lose some ground in the NFC at home.

Commanders at Chargers: I’m Disappointed

I really thought this game had the potential to be Sunday’s best with the Chargers coming off a loss and Jayden Daniels returning for the Commanders. Daniels did his part, but the Chargers were very disappointing with 10 points scored. Justin Herbert learning exactly how hard it is when your right tackle is wasting big gains with penalties, your left tackle (Joe Alt) is out, and you’re getting a pass deflected at the line (again) for a pick.

It looked like Herbert threw his red-zone pick right to the defender but it was a deflection. That was the killer as the score was 20-10 at the time in the fourth quarter.

Then the Commanders drove 99 yards for a touchdown they didn’t necessarily need on 4th-and-goal, but I’ll sure take it since the Deebo Samuel score hit a parlay for me. I like to think that’s good karma for me singing the praises of Daniels since early last season.

But yeah, I think Herbert has really damaged his MVP chances these last two games, and the Chargers are looking like a team that’s not ready after all to overtake the Chiefs in the AFC West. Long way to go but funny how big a difference two weeks can make in this league.

Raiders at Colts: Geno Smith Spending His Nights in the Casinos?

“Diminishing returns” was probably the phrase I used the most this offseason about Geno Smith’s tenure in Seattle. But he was better than this in 2024. He’s just throwing anything he feels like with the Raiders, and he couldn’t even get the ball in the end zone once in this 40-6 loss.

Meanwhile, Daniel Jones was sharp again. No sacks, no turnovers. The Colts scored six straight touchdowns at one point. Granted, turnovers and a blocked punt meant three of them covered 58 yards, but they had drives of 83, 88, and 68 yards too.

A good sign that this offense and defense can just roll an inferior team like this.

Browns vs. Vikings: London Calling, And You Are Not the LOAT

I missed most of this game (sleeping), but it seems like Dillon Gabrield handled himself pretty well. No turnovers. Led a couple of touchdown drives (one of respectable length/effort) against a defense that’s supposed to be so hard to figure out.

But probably not going to be the next LOAT if your defense is giving up a clutch drive to Carson Wentz in London.

I thought Cleveland stayed pretty conservative on offense late and didn’t put this one away. You give Wentz five drives with those weapons to get a go-ahead touchdown, and chances are he’ll do it eventually. He was good on the last drive as was Jordan Addison on the game winner.

Lions at Bengals: Jake Browning Is Blowing It

I know some of the numbers look gaudy like those for Jared Goff, but the Detroit offense was not that special in Cincinnati. The running game only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Detroit had 14 points on six first-half drives, but that included a 17-yard drive after a Jake Browning interception.

I think this game is the opposite of Ravens-Texans in the way the backup quarterback was the one throwing the game away early here before the defense did so late. Browning’s three picks were largely brutal and in his own end of the field, making it too easy on Detroit’s offense.

The nicest thing I can say is Browning did well enough after it was 28-3 that he’ll probably keep his job for the next game. But this was just so poor early that the Bengals never stood much of a chance.

Titans at Cardinals: What. The. Fvck?

You want to see one of the worst blown leads in NFL history? Bookmark this game. The Cardinals led 21-3, so Cam Ward gets his first win and first game-winning drive with an 18-point comeback, but I can’t really give him much credit outside of the last drive was nice to set up the field goal.

But it should never have come to that. Arizona’s inability to add to the 21-6 lead in the second half is all-time bad stuff from an NFL team.

First, Kyler Murray has a fumbled snap play at the Tennessee 20 where he looks woozy and has to temporarily leave the game; just a weird looking play they described as a foot issue.

In the fourth quarter, third-year back Emari Demercado breaks off what should be a 72-yard touchdown run to make it 28-6. But when he started slowing down despite L’Jarius Snead’s pursuit, I knew he was in trouble. This was going to be a Leon Lett situation all over again. But then he dropped the ball early to celebrate and it became the 2008 DeSean Jackson play, which is about the dumbest thing you can do in a game. Adonai Mitchell (Colts) just did this shit last week to cost the Colts a game.

I would cut his ass tomorrow. He’s a UDFA who just fumbled the biggest run of his career. He’s expendable. Make a point to the rest of the league that if you do this, you get cut.

From there, good deep throw by Ward to Calvin Ridley for 47 yards to set up a touchdown, though the Cardinals missed an extra point some would argue they shouldn’t have been kicking anyway. So, it was still a 2-score game at 21-12. Then with just under 5:00 left, Ward gets picked on a tipped ball that is somehow fumbled, recovered by the Titans and good for a touchdown to make it 21-19. Just one of the craziest bounces you’ll ever see.

Let’s not close the book on Ward’s LOAT case yet. My goodness. Then of course, lackadaisical Murray and his offense couldn’t close the deal on their end with some conservative runs by the coordinator. That put it on the defense in the last two minutes, and for the third week in a row, the Cardinals watched a team win on a field goal with no time left on the clock, a first in NFL history.

This was some serious 2006 Rex Grossman shit by Tennessee winning the game that way. I wouldn’t be surprised if Arizona (2-3) craters from here a la Chicago last year after the Hail Mary in Washington.

Giants at Saints: Dropping the Dart on Your Foot

I picked the Saints to get their first win for coach Kellen Moore and quarterback Spencer Rattler as they just have more weapons to lean on than the Giants do with Malik Nabers out. That certainly proved true, but it’s not like the Giants didn’t literally fumble this game away after an early 14-3 lead before the Saints scored the final 23 points.

Jaxson Dart, they show his mom more in one game than all of Taylor Swift’s screentime in 2024. But Dart had a really bad fumble in the second half where he just dropped the ball on a scramble. Then Cam Skattebo, the other Great White Hope here had a bigger fumble that was returned for a touchdown one play into the fourth quarter when the Giants were down 19-14. That was a dagger.

Should the Saints have drafted Dart? Maybe. But this game certainly didn’t make them feel regret.

Dolphins at Panthers: One Man’s Trash Is Another Man’s Super Bowl to Call

I know Mark Sanchez has a different role (analyst) for FOX than Eric Collins (play-by-play), but it’s amusing to view this weekend as the one where FOX likely lost one and gained the other. We’ll see what the facts say about the Sanchez fight/stabbing case, but it doesn’t sound promising for his innocence and future employment.

Meanwhile, Collins may have just supplanted Gus Johnson as the guy who can bring energy to NFL games you really don’t want to watch. This guy got a 17-0 stinker between the Dolphins and Panthers where Miami forgot how to score and the Panthers kept making big play after big play behind Rico Dowdle (206 rushing yards) and company.

It ended up going back and forth, and you would have thought from the way Collins, the voice of the Charlotte Hornets, called the game that you were watching a Super Bowl or something important.

When I heard Collins say, “the Dolphins are hanging on like a cat on a screen door” I knew something great was going to come out of this guy’s mouth after that gem, and he took the internet by storm with his enthusiastic calls:

From now on, I want Eric Collins calling D-crew games. Screw hearing the likes of Spero Dedes or Jonathan Vilma doing games involving the Cardinals, Titans, Panthers, and Saints. Give me Mr. Collins from now on. Please and thank you.

But yeah, the Dolphins (1-4) are pure trash to blow a 17-point lead to a team as bad as Carolina.

Cowboys at Jets: Just End the Season…

Any idea that the Cowboys were a road fraud on offense this year was shut down by the poor defense the Jets play on a weekly basis for Aaron Glenn. The Cowboys were balanced with four touchdown passes from Dak and 180 rushing yards. I never even heard of Ryan Flournoy (2024 sixth-round pick), but the Cowboys got 114 receiving yards out of him with CeeDee Lamb still out.

Dallas led 30-3 late in the third quarter before some points in garbage time for Justin Fields and the offense. That’s two weeks in a row I picked the Jets and got burned badly. I just don’t think you can pick them to win right now. They’re poor on both sides of the ball.

Next week: Eagles-Giants on TNF isn’t the best way to start a week, but maybe some divisional drama can emerge. No chance in hell I’m getting up for Broncos-Jets in London or Germany or whatever they’re doing this week. We’ll see if the Rams can drop the Ravens to 1-5, and at this point, why shouldn’t they? Sunday afternoon is pretty bad (Bucs-49ers the best?) but it gives way to a hell of a game at night with Lions-Chiefs. Then it’s another one of those silly MNF overlapped doubleheaders (Bills-Falcons and Bears-Commanders). Much better games than last week’s, at least.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 3

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

What are two things I don’t like to see have a big impact on NFL games? The randomness of fumble recoveries and special teams making an impact. I can already see this season is going to be tough as those things have been so much of the story already with Derrick Henry’s Week 1 fumble in Buffalo and the fates of some field goals on Sunday for the Eagles and Packers already dictating things in the NFC race.

Sunday was just a wild day in the NFL as we basically had seven games where a team won comfortably (usually scoring 30+ points). Then we had seven other games that were as close as could be at the end with a lot of low-scoring finals, and it tied the record for most games in a week (seven) with the winning points scored in the final 3:00. That’s despite there only being 8 games total this week (MNF pending) with a comeback opportunity.

But what a day if you like seeing balls knocked loose and field goal units getting destroyed for blocks. The latter is kind of cool and something we started seeing more last year with a few games like Broncos-Chiefs and Packers-Bears having some notable blocks at the end. I’m probably forgetting a big one too.

It’s at the point where a blocked field goal feels far more realistic than recovering an onside kick. Maybe that’s a good thing.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Rams at Eagles: Game of the Week

This was a game I circled after the way the Rams gave the Eagles all they could handle in the divisional round. That game, along with some roster improvements, is why I thought the Rams were the best Super Bowl pick in the NFC this summer. Then those stories about Matthew Stafford’s back started coming out, and I got scared off.

Then when you see the Rams take a 26-7 lead in Philly with Davante Adams catching a long touchdown (not OPI; they were arm wrestling before it), the pass rush owning Jalen Hurts, the run defense containing Barkley, and the Rams running wild on the Eagles’ defense, you think maybe Super Bowl was the right call all along.

But then the collapse started almost immediately in the third quarter after it was 26-7. You can kind of see it coming on offense as Stafford just didn’t bring his A game for this one and they got that short field touchdown. But the defense had a complete turnaround after crushing this matchup before the Eagles finally decided to play like a 21st-century offense and use those highly-talented wide receivers down the field.

Hurts hit back-to-back plays for over 30 yards, gaining more yards than the Eagles had to that point on each play. Stafford took a sack on a 3rd-and-2 at the Philly 49, and McVay decided to punt like a fraidy cat. The Eagles turned that into an 87-yard touchdown drive with A.J. Brown making his first of the year to make it 26-21 going to the fourth quarter.

The Rams went for it this time on 4th-and-1 at the Philly 46, but Kyren Williams was stuffed. Then the Eagles went 4-and-out, and that 4th-and-7 incompletion was ill-advised if you ask me. Pin them deep as that offense was struggling now.

But starting at the 50, the Rams couldn’t make the Eagles pay for it. I don’t disagree with going for a 36-yard field goal on 4th-and-2. There’s some value to going up 8 points, since you know they can only tie you at best. But the kick was blocked with 8:42 left by Jalen Carter.

That’s when the Eagles drove 91 yards with five conversions on third or fourth down, and none of them even involved the Tush Push that the Eagles again got away with a big false start on before their first touchdown drive of the game. But the Rams couldn’t get it done on 4th-and-goal defensively, and DeVonta Smith caught the go-ahead touchdown with 1:48 left.

The only good news is the Rams stopped the 2-point conversion pass, so it was only a 27-26 game. That means a field goal wins it for the Rams, and Stafford has done this many times over. He got into range with Puka Nacua, then the running game did well enough to set up a 44-yard field goal as the final snap. That’s plenty of confidence to make that kick.

Except Jordan Davis broke through for the block this time, and he even returned it for a game-closing touchdown to win 33-26, denying us Rams +3.5 bettors an easy win with a beat as bad as any I can think of.

That also has major implications on the NFC race, making it more likely the rematch is in Philly again if there is one. The Rams also may have woken up the Philly offense from its 10-quarter slumber of forgetting how to play modern offense. Just an all-around disastrous day for the Rams who did so many things right early, but too many things wrong after it was 26-7.

Yeah, circle this one too. It’s another major part of the butterfly effect in the NFC this year. But I do think it’s an annoying double standard that people are already trying to paint the Eagles as anything but the 2024 Chiefs, who people claimed were lucky and got bailed out by the refs.

Meanwhile, the 2025 Eagles are getting called out weekly for false starts on the Tush Push and they would have had a +8 scoring differential in starting 3-0 had they not padded the number with the last return touchdown on the block.

I’d say this team is running out of steam going into the game against the team that kicked their ass last year (Tampa Bay), but the Bucs are also barely winning games this year at 3-0.

That just seems to be a consistent theme about winning so much in the NFL. Maybe we shouldn’t knock it so much as it sure beats the alternative of losing games despite good stats.

Broncos at Chargers: Best in the West?

The AFC West battle lived up to the hype as this is the kind of game you’d usually see the Chargers lose in the past. Sure, there were some Chargering moments as Najee Harris tore his Achilles on a play-action pass run fake, which was unfortunate to see. Justin Herbert had a deflected pick in scoring territory. The Broncos got away with a lucky deflected completion from Bo Nix in a big spot. J.K. Dobbins broke a 41-yard run and scored a touchdown against his former team, then the Chargers fumbled the ensuing kickoff and fortunately held Denver to a field goal instead of falling behind 21-10.

But much like last week in Indy, the Broncos didn’t finish the job in the fourth quarter on defense, and the offense was just off on too many key plays. They also had very costly penalties again this week with offensive offsides negating a first down halfway through the final quarter, then a face mask killed the drive by putting them into 2nd-and-20. Just dumb things like that.

Herbert was only 28-of-47 passing and took 5 sacks, but he still threw for 300 yards and made a great touchdown pass to Keenan Allen from 20 yards out to tie the game at 20 with 2:37 left. Again, it’s crazy that the league just let Allen go back to the Chargers like he never left. He looks good.

Denver going three-and-out after the Allen touchdown was huge. Can’t do that on such an uninspired drive that didn’t even last 50 seconds. Herbert had no issues leading the offense down the field against what’s supposed to be this great Denver defense, and Dicker the Kicker was true from 43 yards out to win in 23-20.

It’s the second week in a row the Broncos lost on the final snap of the game with the offense never registering a possession in the fourth quarter while trailing. Bad way to start 1-2, and doubly bad when you consider the Chargers are 3-0 in the AFC West now.

Chiefs at Giants: People Are Saying It’s the Ugliest 13-Point Win of All Time

Leave it up to the Chiefs to get a 22-9 road win in wire-to-wire fashion and still come away feeling like there’s so many problems. But that’s what happens when you set a high standard for years.

Still, isn’t it a hell of a lot better to win ugly than to lose a game? The Chiefs finally ended their 3-game losing slide against an opponent that isn’t going anywhere, a break from what was likely the first case in NFL history of a team playing 8 straight games against playoff opponents going back to last year.

Alas, there are some legitimate problems that persist like Jawaan Taylor’s drive-killing penalties at right tackle, Isiah Pacheco’s horrible field vision, Travis Kelce’s growing temper with mistakes, and a lot of bad discipline with too many dumb penalties. Oh, and Harrison Butker cost them 4 points by missing short, easy kicks for a kicker making that much money.

The good news is the Chiefs got two takeaways as Russell Wilson may have just lost another starting job with a terrible performance one week after he had 450 yards in Dallas. I don’t see how you don’t just go to rookie Jaxson Dart as the starter next week, and I don’t understand what the plan was last night with Dart only coming into the game for a few snaps to hand off and not throw any passes. Kill that noise. Just start him.

The other good news is Patrick Mahomes only had to scramble a couple of times as the Chiefs finally gave him 103 yards of rushing support. Tyquan Thornton also looks like their best wide receiver (career-high 71 yards and another touchdown; inches away from two scores) even though he’s supposed to be WR5 on the depth chart at best. He should play a lot of snaps even when Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice are back as he’s basically able to do the MVS role and give them some size and speed down the field.

A much tougher test awaits next week with Baltimore. But even if this team falls to 1-3, I think the way the defense has picked things up after that terrible Brazil performance and the reinforcements on the way at receiver still make this team a formidable one that can contend with anyone. What other quarterback is ranking fifth in QBR with this cast as is?

Just have to cut down on these mistakes, and I really wish Andy Reid would bench Taylor to prove a point. Why pay Jaylon Moore that much money to ride the bench?

Steelers at Patriots: 2008 Vibes

I’m still not sure the Steelers are playing all that well as a team. But seasons where they can handle New England usually go well for them. It was the turnovers forced by the defense in this one that saved the day given the offense only had 203 yards as the running game still struggled and no receiver had 35 yards. The Steelers were also getting a lot of favorable calls from the refs early for some reason.

Would have liked this kind of officiating and turnover luck in Foxboro years ago when Roethlisberger was the quarterback.

But the Patriots turned it over 5 times, their most since 5 turnovers in 2008 in a 33-10 loss to the Steelers during the Matt Cassel year. Weather at least played a factor that day. This time, the Patriots just made some poor decisions with the ball with Drake Maye’s pick before halftime in the end zone, then Rhamondre Stevenson put the ball on the ground twice as he so often does in big spots. Guy is seriously one of the worst-timed fumblers I’ve ever seen as he’s cost them several close games over the years with this shit.

But the Steelers stepped up big in the fourth quarter this week by getting a strip-sack of Maye in a tied game, then Rodgers threw probably his best pass for a 17-yard touchdown to Calvin Austin to take a 21-14 lead.

The Patriots could have answered, but Demario Douglas ended up giving up the first down with his RAC on 4th-and-1, getting tackled short of the line. The second time this year a good tackle by the Steelers on fourth down secured a win. They’re still giving up too many easy completions, but you’ll always take the turnover parade.

That’s 38 game-winning drives for Rodgers, who is in 13th place in that stat now. We’ll see if he can join the group of 40 before he finishes his career. Playing with this Pittsburgh team, it looks like the opportunities are going to be there.

Bengals at Vikings: Have a Day, Isaiah Rodgers

So much for that battle between Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson to see who is WR1 and can lift up their backup quarterback to the win. Well, the answer was clearly Justin Jefferson as he had 75 yards and didn’t lose a fumble like Chase did on an all-time bad ball security day for Cincinnati.

But it was an all-time great game by Minnesota corner Isaiah Rodgers. Seriously, if this happened in a playoff game, it’d be considered the greatest performance ever by a single defender. He had a pick-six, a forced fumble and fumble return touchdown, and he also had a second fumble forced and two passes defensed.

The craziest part? Rodgers did this all by halftime as the Bengals turned it over 5 times on the day in a real road mess. I hope people don’t just chalk this up to Joe Burrow being out. The Bengals ran the ball so poorly and five players fumbled once in what was a dreadful performance all around.

Carson Wentz had it on easy street and it didn’t matter that this was his first start with his sixth team in the last six seasons. His inexperience with Minnesota didn’t mean a lick when his defense came to play like this.

Colts at Titans: …Three Times Is a Pattern

Before Monday night, let’s just acknowledge and appreciate the craziness that is Daniel Jones leading the most effective offense in the league right now through three games. His QBR (85.7) would be the third highest in a season since 2006.

He’ll come back to Earth eventually, but three games is a pretty historic run for nearly scoring on all of your drives. Jones was making plays Sunday in Tennessee that I swear were always sacks with him in New York. It’s been crazy to watch.

As for the Titans, it’s not good Cam Ward started the game with a late throw that was returned for an easy pick-six. Just started the day on the wrong foot and it was an uphill battle from there as the Colts poured on 41 points.

Out of all the 3-0 teams, you could make the case that the Colts have played the best football quarter to quarter of them all so far. I don’t think even the most optimistic fan would have predicted that.

Texans at Jaguars: Down in a (0-3) Hole

I think one of my best NFL team previews this summer was the Houston Texans, a team I picked to finish under 9.5 wins and miss the playoffs. My worry was they had way too many new pieces on offense for a coordinator with no experience (Nick Caley), and the only thing they could hang their hat on was C.J. Stroud throwing to Nico Collins.

Well, they’re 0-3 and doing it in historic fashion:

On Sunday in Jacksonville, even the Stroud-to-Collins combo was feast or famine. Collins got behind the defense for a 50-yard touchdown to tie the game at 10. But after the Jaguars foolishly turned the ball over on downs at midfield, Collins fumbled the ball near the red zone on a catch on the ensuing drive.

Trevor Lawrence has really struggled to get his best receivers going this year. But Brian Thomas Jr. picked a good spot to make a big 46-yard catch and run. The Texans, perhaps learning from last week’s ending against Tampa, seemingly let Travis Etienne score a 10-yard touchdown run to take a 17-10 lead and ensure the Texans get the ball back with 1:42 and two timeouts left. Bold strategy.

Stroud drove the Texans to the Jacksonville 28, but with the clock a factor, he forced a deep one and it was intercepted to end the game and drop Houston to 0-3, which doesn’t look like a hole they can climb out of like they actually did back in 2018 to make the playoffs.

Packers at Browns: Not in Love

What a devastating loss for the Packers, and you have to put it on their offense as the defense only allowed 221 yards. But to blow a 10-0 lead this late is just inexcusable. Jordan Love made a terrible interception in a 10-3 game that Cleveland was able to turn into a 4-yard touchdown drive to tie the game.

Then in a true “ball don’t lie” moment, the Packers got away with a Josh Jacobs fumble because they said there wasn’t clear video of a recovery. The Packers kept it on the ground, but Brandon McManus was blocked on his 43-yard field goal with 21 seconds left. That was just enough time for Joe Flacco to set up his kicker, Szmyt, for a 55-yard walk-off field goal. This is the kicker who missed an extra-point sized kick to lose the Week 1 game to Cincinnati, but he was good here for probably the biggest upset of the season so far.

I liked the Browns holding Josh Jacobs under in yards, but I didn’t expect 16 carries for 30 yards. You can’t run on these Browns, and with the way Travis Hunter isn’t popping much for Jacksonville, maybe trading down and taking Mason Graham, who was a beast in this game, wasn’t such a bad move after all for Cleveland.

But what a brutal few minutes for Green Bay when 3-0 was in sight with a field goal, and it looked like the Rams were going to beat the Eagles. But those field goals went different ways and now the Packers look like a work in progress again as they try to get this offense going with rookie Matthew Golden and without Jayden Reed (collarbone).

More evidence it is hard to lose your de-facto WR1 and try to replace him with a rookie.

Cardinals at 49ers: You Lost to One-Legged Mac Jones?

Alright, I’m just going to say it. Kyler Murray’s laissez-faire brand of leadership combined with Marvin Harrison Jr’s. quiet, reserved attitude much like his father had is a terrible combination for NFL success. When you’re dropping passes like this (along with one in the end zone), you need someone to toughen you up. To demand more from you and your talent. And I just can’t imagine Kyler doing that with him.

The Cardinals nearly won this game in inexplicable fashion. Murray himself made a horrible play where he almost did intentional grounding in the end zone, which would have been a safety to give the 49ers the lead. Instead, the 49ers got called for a penalty in the end zone, giving Arizona a 15-13 lead on a safety. Crazy stuff.

But the Cardinals couldn’t run out the clock, which is so crucial in a 2-point game, and the 49ers got the ball back. Mac Jones is one of the worst QBs in the clutch in NFL history. Before Sunday, he was 3-17 at 4QC/GWD opportunities with plenty of turnovers in those spots.

Even in this game, he was picked in scoring territory when it was tied with 5:08 left. That was actually before the safety drive. But after getting yet another chance with 1:46 left, Jones delivered with Kendrick Bourne, a familiar face from their New England days together, making big catches on the drive. Chrisitan McCaffrey took a short pass 20 yards and that was enough to set up new kicker Eddy Pineiro for a 35-yard game-winning field goal with no time left.

You know, the kick Jake Moody probably misses. But Pineiro made it and the 49ers won 16-15 the exact kind of game they lost last year.

But I would have serious concerns about Harrison Jr. in this offense. For someone who went so high in the draft, he was easily outplayed by Ricky Pearsall (8 catches for 117 yards) on the other side, to say nothing of the other 2024 wideouts who keep producing more.

Cowboys at Bears: Oof, That D (That’s What She Said)

It says a lot about where the pass rush is for Dallas that Caleb Williams, in his 20th NFL game, did not get sacked for the first time. He also threw for 298 yards and 4 touchdowns as Ben Johnson had things cooking as the offense unleashed rookie Luther Burden, who came down with a 65-yard touchdown on a deep flea-flicker pass on his way to 101 yards.

I hate to agree with Tom Brady, but he was right on the broadcast that the Cowboys are better suited this year to deal with a CeeDee Lamb injury, which of course happened early in the game as I had him as a top touchdown scorer pick this week. Go figure, he just had to play the first snap of the second quarter before leaving for good as he couldn’t go to make sure I didn’t get any bet protection on FanDuel. Almost like it was done on purpose cause I’m not sure he played any of the final seven snaps of the first quarter when Dallas was driving. Ugh.

But this was Dak’s worst game of the season as the Cowboys were scoreless after their fourth drive and he had one pick that was pretty poor and on him.

This seems like the M.O. for Dallas this year. Dak throwing a ton to try to keep up with his defense getting shredded. This is what Jerry Jones voluntarily made possible with the Parsons trade.

But hey, good job on holding the Chicago running game to 3.0 yards per carry. That at least helped them stay under 35 points.

Saints at Seahawks: Over Right Away

Jesus Christ, I think it was over within 11 minutes. The Saints did a good job the first two weeks of challenging the Cardinals and 49ers, but they had no answers for the NFC West team from Seattle. Not when you give up a 95-yard punt return touchdown then a short field on a punt block, which snapped the second-longest streak in modern NFL history without a punt block as the Saints had gone 233 games.

Jets at Buccaneers: Baker’s Bunch Does It Again

Well, Tyrod Taylor completed 23 more passes than Justin Fields did last week, and the Jets actually erased a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter to take a stunning 27-26 lead after blocking a field goal and returning it for a touchdown with 1:49 left.

But that’s too much time for Baker Mayfield this season. Not one known for comebacks, he’s 3-0 at pulling off these last-minute drives this season. In fact, the 2025 Bucs are the first team to score the game-winning points in the final 60 seconds of its first three games to start a season. Crazy stuff.

Emeka Egbuka had another brilliant catch on the game-winning drive and deserves to be the favorite for OROY. The Bucs may have made this one closer than it needed to be, but you have to give them props for winning with a lot of offensive line injuries.

Meanwhile, the Jets have now blown 8 fourth-quarter leads over the last 17 games. It’s like Robert Saleh never left.

Falcons at Panthers: Just Doom

Man, I guess I fvcked up with that NFC South pick, huh? Maybe it’s different if they won in Week 1 against Tampa, but I have no idea how you go from a 22-6 win in Minnesota – then look what that team did Sunday – to getting blanked 30-0 to lowly Carolina. Sure, the Falcons lost to Bryce Young in overtime to end 2024, but that was a 44-38 game.

But 30-0? Okay, your new kicker missed from 49 and 55, so he’s probably not the upgrade over Younghoe Koo you thought he was, and that explains the shutout. But still, 30-6? Okay, Penix made a brutal pass that was late and went for a pick-six in the third quarter. But 23-6 in Carolina?

That’s a hope-crushing loss for Atlanta that this is going to be another wasted season. It’s not like Young was making throws out of his ass. He threw for 121 yards. It’s not like the running defense got eviscerated either. Just a no-show for the offense and that’s really disappointing as that unit is supposed to do some leading in Atlanta.

But it doesn’t look like it’s working out well so far. Remember, the defense stole the show in Minnesota last week.

Raiders at Commanders: No Jayden, No Problem

I almost forgot this game happened. So, I thought Geno Smith would play much better than Monday night, which he obviously did, and the Raiders would win as the Commanders would miss Jayden Daniels. But Marcus Mariota scored the first touchdown, had an efficient day, they broke some big plays, and it was no issue in a 41-24 win.

If you’re the Raiders, you kinda knew your defense was going to be ass outside of Maxx Crosby. But I think there needs to be some real concern with this offensive line as the run blocking just doesn’t exist for Ashton Jeanty, and Geno took 5 sacks. He’s not going to make it the full season at this rate.

Next week: Seattle-Arizona on TNF sounds like another night of doing work on the computer while I watch on my phone. I thought for months I’d be watching T.J. Watt chase J.J. McCarthy around in Ireland, but they might actually be better off with Carson Wentz. Tough game. Looks like another week where the Eagles have the best 1:00 game in Tampa Bay, a place they’ve struggled. I think Colts-Rams is a really nice backseat to Ravens-Chiefs in the late window. Packers-Cowboys has potential on SNF if Dak plays well. Monday night overlapped doubleheader is weak with Jets-Dolphins 0-4 battle and Bengals (without Joe Burrow) in Denver (1-2). Ho-hum.