2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 10

Week 10 in the NFL started with one of the worst games you’ll ever see in this league between the Broncos and Raiders. Sunday night ended with one of the worst games I’ve ever seen Aaron Rodgers play. Who knows what Monday night holds, but hopefully it’ll be better than a Sunday where the rise to power of Adolf Hitler and Donald Trump were both referenced during live NFL broadcasts. How fitting.

In all, we had eight games with a comeback opportunity, which is the most in the last four weeks but still not the 9+ we had every week in Weeks 1-6. Maybe Monday gets us there though I’m still going with the Eagles to win that one.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Colts vs. Falcons: Game of the Week

This might be the shortest edition of Stat Oddity I’ve ever written for a regular-season slate (2,800 words), but that’s because I didn’t sleep well Saturday night as I actually set my alarm to get up and watch this entire game. It’s the only international game I’ll be doing that for this year, and it was 100% worth it.

I thought both offenses were great early on, then once Daniel Jones threw that pick before halftime and both teams mismanaged the shit out of that clock, the game took a real turn. The pass pressure was dialed up on Jones, he’s making mistakes more akin to how we knew him with the Giants. But the Colts still have those great weapons like Alec Pierce and Tyler Warren, and of course Jonathan Taylor was a badass on Sunday. The 83-yard touchdown run was crazy, bad tackling, speed, the whole 9 yards.

But the Falcons certainly had their shot to win after taking a 25-22 lead on a great drive where their run game looked dominant. They had Jones in a 3rd-and-21 but still managed to let him scramble for 19 yards. With the Colts out of timeouts at 1:26, that snap needed to be the one that set up the Falcons to win. Instead, it led to 4th-and-2, and Warren came down with the risky throw to convert. The Colts eventually settled for a field goal and overtime after another grounding penalty on Penix.

In overtime, I feel like you want to go second now with these new rules. Know exactly what you need and get to play with all four downs to get it. Hopefully some decent time too so you don’t need to rush much. I think it’s also better to go second if you’re not the better offense as you might need that extra down.

Alas, the Falcons won the toss and wanted the ball first. After being gifted one first down on a poor holding penalty on the defense, they didn’t get another and punted. Ho-hum. The Colts didn’t have far to go for the winning field goal, but with that kicker, you’re much better off just going for the touchdown. Taylor provided that from 8 yards out and the game was over with him hitting 286 yards from scrimmage and 3 more touchdowns.

It’s not like Jones didn’t help earn the win, but this was probably the day where Taylor overtook him for the Colts’ MVP candidate. That was big time overseas and the Falcons are not a bad defense.

The Colts had a bye week before their showdown in Kansas City in Week 12, and they need it to fix up some things with their pass pro as Jones’ great sack rate is in the toilet after these last two games.

Meanwhile, I’d say it’s hard to believe the Falcons are 3-6 and haven’t won since the Buffalo win. But is it that hard to believe? These are the Falcons. They have their own brand of choking that only the Chargers can beat. They were 0-8 on 3rd down and 3-29 on their last three games. That’s inexcusable with these skill players.

But that’s Falconing. Still, the Colts outgained them 519-290 in yards, so the right team won in the end. Great game to watch from start to finish.

Bills at Dolphins: Super Bowl Hangover in Week 10?

I’m so used to Buffalo beating Miami that it’s still hard to believe this one happened the way it did. Sure, the Bills had another turnover regression moment with 3 giveaways, all in Miami territory, but it’s not like Tua Tagovailoa didn’t throw 2 picks too. He just didn’t have any sacks and the run game (197 yards) shredded Buffalo.

This is why you don’t give too much credit to Buffalo for beating Kansas City in the regular season. You have to do it in the playoffs, and the Bills sure looked like a team who was hearing everyone kiss their ass all week and they never had any intensity to step up for this game too. The Dolphins led 16-0 early and Buffalo never really threatened save for that first touchdown drive. But then they failed on the 2-point conversion (0/4 this year), so it was still a 10-point game before Miami added onto the lead.

I’ve been saying since September the Bills just don’t look right this year despite the No. 1 seed talk because of such a favorable schedule. Well, losing at home to the Patriots and losing on the road to Atlanta (hasn’t won since) and now Miami (poor team) was part of that easy schedule, and they’re 0-3 in those games. They may have even lost to Miami at home if not for that roughing the punter penalty in the 4th quarter of a tied game.

The Bills have a lot of issues, and I’ve been up too long this day to write about them all and how they relate to Josh Allen and his share of blame. That can wait for Wednesday’s QB rankings.

But the Bills are definitely struggling right now, and they’ll get a somewhat competent Tampa team next week to try to sort this out against.

Steelers at Chargers: Little Fight

You know it’s a rough night for the Steelers when Mike Tomlin’s defense had a more respectable outing than his offense and even his special teams. Chris Boswell missed a 45-yard field goal and they had another embarrassing muffed return that was fumbled to the Chargers.

But this was Aaron Rodgers’ first really bad game with the Steelers. In fact, it was one of the worst games of his career as only a garbage time touchdown drive saved some of the numbers from being in the bottom 3 of his long career for one game. Just never looked comfortable all night, missed some open receivers on big plays, ran backwards into the end zone for a safety early, and just looked pretty off. It happens, but that’s the first time he really shit the bed in a Steeler uniform.

But the defense did a respectable job against Justin Herbert and his receivers. Would have been even better if they could catch the interceptions thrown to them.

The Ravens are right on the Steelers’ heels now, so it’s only going to get tougher and the stakes higher. I don’t think the Steelers are a good team right now since they’re pretty incapable of playing complementary football. If they can ever show up on both sides of the ball for the same game, then they may have something in a goofy AFC this year where the Patriots, Colts, and Broncos are all 8-2.

But this team is flawed, and the lack of a good wide receiver besides D.K. Metcalf, who hasn’t even been that great, is a huge misunderstanding of what Rodgers is as a quarterback. That was always the concern, and that’s why this offense still has no real identity after 9 games.

Rams at 49ers: NFC West Juggernaut No. 1

The NFC West teams were all in battle against each other in the same window, and both games ended up being bloodbaths. The Rams jumped out 21-0 on the 49ers, which is usually not how Sean McVay vs. Kyle Shanahan goes. It’s also unheard of for the 49ers to mount a huge comeback win in these spots, so I’m surprised they even got it to 28-20 at one point early in the fourth quarter.

But the defense, missing studs like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, never had an answer for Matthew Stafford, who remains red hot with his third-straight game of 4 touchdown passes and no picks.

Mac Jones quietly had a solid game too, but it never really mattered because of the way the Rams got off to that fast start.

Cardinals at Seahawks: NFC West Juggernaut No. 2

The other NFC West battle was over even earlier. The Seahawks were up 28-0 not even a full minute into the second quarter with DeMarcus Lawrence returning two fumbles from Jacoby Brissett for touchdowns. The Arizona offense was sitting on negative net points before finishing the game with net 8 points in garbage time.

Apparently, the 2025 Seahawks turned into the 2007 Patriots (Games 1-10 Version) during their bye week. I’m sure playing the Commanders and Cardinals has a lot to do with it, but Seattle looks pretty legit to me. Those games with the Rams, starting next week, should be special.

Lions at Commanders: Dan Campbell Takes Over

Well, I think playing a defeated Washington team that didn’t have Jayden Daniels and a team the Lions were looking for some playoff revenge for played huge factors in this 44-22 rout that helped Dan Campbell move to 13 straight wins and covers following a loss since 2022.

But who knew the best person to replace offensive coordinator Ben Johnson might be offensive coordinator Dan Campbell? He took over play-calling duties for this one and the Lions responded with 44 points on 8 drives (no punts) before running out the clock. Close to perfect with 546 yards to back it up.

Again, I think the state of the opponent mattered a lot. But Detroit could be peaking going into Philadelphia next week, a huge NFC showdown we never got to see last season.

Patriots at Buccaneers: TreVeyon and the Hendersons

The Patriots may have had about three good rushes all game long in Tampa, but two of them basically powered their only points of the second half after rookie TreVeyon Henderson scored on touchdown runs of 55 and 69 yards in a 28-23 win.

It took a Rhamondre Stevenson injury to finally see the speed we saw a taste of in the preseason from Henderson, but this wasn’t the only rookie who had a breakout game. Kyle Williams scored on a 72-yard touchdown catch that was mostly YAC to showcase his speed, so the Patriots are discovering weapons as the season goes on.

When I look at the Buccaneers, I can acknowledge that Emeka Egbuka is one of the most polished rookie wideouts ever. A gifted player with natural ability and real WR1 potential for years to come. But I also think the offense is quite obviously not the same when you don’t have Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin out there.

Baker Mayfield has also all but given up on scrambling since the 3rd-and-14 run against the 49ers, so I’m not sure what that’s all about. Hiding an injury? The fact is the Bucs were held to 16 points on 10 drives at home before their last touchdown had a strong odor of garbage time following Henderson’s huge run, which he didn’t have to necessarily score given the clock situation. But I can’t fault him for that one.

Henderson scored as many 55-yard touchdown runs in one half as the Patriots had (2) in every Tom Brady start in 2001-19 combined. That’s how special those plays are, and they certainly helped on a day where Drake Maye wasn’t his best, completing 16/31 passes with a red-zone pick that he forced in a spot where he actually would have been better off taking a sack (that’s ironic) in a 21-16 game late.

That gave Baker a chance to take the lead, something he’s done so well this year. But the pressure got to him on 4th down and the Bucs turned it over on downs before Henderson’s last big run.

Ravens at Vikings: McCarthyism May Not Be Sweeping the League in 2025

Yeah, we’ll keep saying J.J. McCarthy is young and needs a lot of developing. He certainly showed it in this game as he got worse the longer it went on. Meanwhile, the Ravens had a shaky start with a lot of field goals before finally finding the end zone after the Vikings barely coughed up a fumble on a kick return.

It took a lot for Lamar Jackson to keep his streak alive of 30 games with a touchdown pass, but he got there. Then the Vikings made it a one-score game anyway before the defense stopped McCarthy late.

Three straight wins for the Ravens (4-5) and they’re building confidence.

Jaguars at Texans: Game Over, Man

Yeah, I’m out on the Jaguars (5-4) as a playoff team this year. Blowing a 19-point lead in the fourth quarter to Davis Mills is exactly the kind of game that could trigger a losing streak and implosion to a season.

It’s not like the Jaguars were ever that far better than Houston in this game. They just feasted on field position early, then the defense took care of Trevor Lawrence late, including an unbelievable pick six to even cover the spread in the end.

Good to see a great defensive unit earn a win here as the Texans have been playing hard for DeMeco Ryans on that side of the ball. Just didn’t expect Mr. Long Neck to be the one to lead one of the greatest comebacks in franchise history while C.J. Stroud nursed a concussion.

Saints at Panthers: Attaboy for Tyler Shough

I knew you couldn’t trust the Panthers (-5.5) with a big spread but I didn’t think they’d lose this convincingly. The Saints took the lead with 9:21 left in the second quarter and never looked back in a 17-7 win. They shut down Rico Dowdle (18 carries for 53 yards), and as expected, Bryce Young wasn’t able to build a passing game.

Meanwhile, rookie Tyler Shough shined in his first NFL win with 282 yards and 2 touchdowns. Funny how he was more impressive in this one game than Cam Ward’s been all year as the No. 1 pick. I know, Ward will get the “bad coaching” pass for 2025, which is valid to a point. But with the way Shough and Dart have played this year without the greatest of situations around them, it makes you wonder about that draft class, especially with the Shedeur Sanders slide too.

Giants at Bears: Winning the Games Eberflus Didn’t

Despite the 6-3 record, I don’t think the Bears are a serious contender and still wouldn’t trust them to make the playoffs. But this year is about Caleb Williams getting better and Ben Johnson winning the games Matt Eberflus almost always lost.

On that front, this year has been a success after the Bears rallied from 10 down in the fourth quarter with a 24-20 win after Williams was excellent on two quick touchdown drives. Poor Russell Wilson took another failed comeback on his record after coming off the bench for a concussed Jaxson Dart, which was always the concern with his playing style. Dart is a special player when he’s healthy but who knows how long that will last.

At this point, I don’t see any value in bringing Brian Daboll back next year. He loses way too many games like this with the defense blowing the lead and the offense unable to recover.

Browns at Jets: Special Special Teams

If you had to script how Justin Fields can win a 27-20 game against a stingy defense, this would certainly do the trick:

  • Jets had two special teams touchdowns in the first quarter
  • Fields had 54 passing yards with 42 coming on a game-winning screen pass touchdown to Breece Hall, who showed off after a week the team traded its two best defenders and easily could have dealt him too
  • Dillon Gabriel was sacked 6 times

Leave it to the Browns to lose a game to a team like this in a game script like that.

Next week: Some of these games will be flat out duds, but with this much great stuff on the schedule, it has to be the best Sunday of the season.

  • Bucs at Bills
  • Chargers at Jags
  • Bengals at Steelers (Unc Bowl II)
  • Seahawks at Rams (NFC Game of the Year?)
  • Chiefs at Broncos (AFC West Game of the Year?)
  • Lions at Eagles (SNF)

NFL 2025 Week 10 Predictions: Not the NFC Game of the Year Edition

Well, let’s hope Raiders vs. Broncos is the low point of Week 10. It was a historically bad game, and it’s even funnier when you consider the Broncos have the best record (8-2) in the NFL right now. The first team to 8 wins. Just goes to show what this season has been like so far. They’re giving me 2013 Chiefs vibes, but we’ll see if the 2025 Chiefs can play the part of the 2013 Broncos and take their division back.

Anyways, November is home to many of the biggest games this regular season. It’s just that the ones we circled in May when the schedule came out don’t appear to be the biggest ones after all. It really wasn’t true last week for Chiefs vs. Bills, and it’s probably not true in the NFC this week for Packers vs. Eagles. Not after Green Bay lost to Carolina last week and lost Tucker Kraft (ACL) in the process.

Still a big game on Monday night, but with the way the NFC West is shaping up, maybe one of those upcoming Seahawks vs. Rams games is actually the big one to watch. Or maybe it was Eagles vs. Rams, the 19-point comeback, that will decide the No. 1 seed after all. We’ll see.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 10 Predictions

I see a good spread record and my natural reaction these days is to go the other way as those guys are supposed to be so good that the record should regress to 50/50. That’s why I ignored that division underdogs were 4-0 ATS on TNF this year as an underdog of 7+ points. But the Raiders covered in one of the ugliest games I’ve ever watched. I had Denver winning by 11. Oh well.

ATL-IND: Not sure how fast Sauce Gardner can get ready for an overseas game with his new team, but slowing down Drake London is exactly what you need to do to beat Atlanta and why you get a player like that if you’re Indy. Again, when Bo Nix and the Broncos are 8-2, I see why Indy is doing what they’re doing. This is probably their best shot in the AFC for the next few years. I think they get right on offense, Jonathan Taylor has a big game, and they win by a touchdown.

JAX-HOU: I think Jags catch a break with Stroud (Concussion) out and win that one.

NYG-CHI: My favorite pick is the over here, or more specifically for both to score 20+. But I think Bears can win a 31-20 type of game.

BAL-MIN: I trust the Baltimore defense again and expect Lamar to play well. Don’t trust McCarthy yet.

CLE-NYJ: Should be an ugly game but if it’s low scoring, Justin Fields always has a chance. Just feels like the typical NFL spot for a team to trade away 2 of its best players and still win, signaling the start of the Shedeur Sanders era next week.

NO-CAR: Since when is Carolina a favorite of 5.5? Well, the Saints aren’t good but I think division games are closer and the Panthers win another tight one.

BUF-MIA: Dolphins had their shot in Buffalo on prime time. This is the 1 PM blowout that gets few eyeballs on it.

NE-TB: Could be a good one but I’m trusting Baker at home. Get Cade Otton (or any TE) a TD.

ARI-SEA: Good chance for Arizona to cover with Jacoby playing well but I think Seattle is peaking right now. Love the Shaheed trade.

SF-LAR: Gotta hedge on McVay vs. Shanahan. The 49ers own him except for one fateful 4th quarter in the 2021 NFC-CG.

DET-WAS: Well known this week that Dan Campbell is 12-0 ATS after his last 12 losses. I like it for 13-0 since the Washington offense is tanking and the defense is bad.

PIT-LAC: Another tough opponent for the Steelers. But I think we see some Chargering and the Joe Alt injury combined with moving Ramsey to safety has me liking the Steelers again.

PHI-GB: Another game impacted by injury. The Packers are beat up at WR and just lost their TE threat. Eagles should be fairly healthy after the bye week and swept this team last year. Think they get past them again after rediscovering Saquon in their last game.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 10

Week 10 in the NFL was almost an overcorrection to last week when favorites dominated the slate from start to finish. In Week 10, favorites were just 3-10 ATS with MNF pending.

But at the end of the day, the teams with the great records were largely winning by the skin of their teeth. It started Thursday night when the Ravens came back from a 21-7 deficit to beat the Bengals in a 35-34 game that came down to a 2-point conversion (and the refs turning a blind eye to Baltimore penalties on it).

Then Sunday brought some even wilder results with the Chiefs (trailed 14-3) and Lions (trailed 23-7) needing field goals to go their way at the end to improve to 17-1 collectively. The Steelers also had a 10-point comeback in the second half to beat the Commanders on the road, and even Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers had a comeback and game-winning field goal in Tampa Bay.

In all, 8-of-13 games had a comeback opportunity and there were seven game-winning drives in Week 10. That made up for the horrible late-afternoon slate that had no drama whatsoever.

It was a good build-up for Week 11, which could be the most crucial week of the 2024 regular season.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Broncos at Chiefs: 8-and-One Hell of a Block to Start 9-0

I guess the Chiefs just hate playing at 1:00 p.m. ET as their last such game was on Christmas last year (a Monday), which was their last loss against the Raiders. But the Chiefs are just showing off now. They have won so many games in a variety of ways in the Patrick Mahomes era, but Sunday’s 16-14 escape over Denver is a new achievement unlocked.

This was not your typical Kansas City letdown game in that there wasn’t a single turnover by either team. No obligatory fumble. No interceptions, unlucky bounce or not, from Patrick Mahomes. It wasn’t a penalty fest either with 9 total for 45 yards.

This was going to be Kansas City’s first loss in 15 games because the Broncos were just a little better on third down against the best third down offense in 2024. The Chiefs delivered some huge plays on that money down, but again, the Broncos were just a little better at converting and forcing pressure on Mahomes to end drives short of the end zone. Bo Nix threw both of his touchdowns on third downs in the second quarter to take a 14-3 lead as he wasn’t phased by Steve Spagnuolo’s defense in his first game against them. That division familiarity with good coaching helps.

But again, there was just enough pressure getting to Mahomes, who took 4 sacks, on money downs that the Chiefs were limited to 16 points. They had a couple of big fourth-down conversions, but they rightfully settled for a 20-yard field goal to take a 16-14 lead with 5:57 left.

In that situation, you don’t expect to never see the ball again, but that’s what happened thanks to Harrison Butker’s kickoff landing short of the kicking zone, which is a penalty that puts the ball at the 40 now. You would think of all weeks, where over 74 million Americans voted for a male rapist over a qualified woman, that Butker would be on point with everything.

Normally, you expect the Chiefs to make the big stops on defense, but it didn’t happen this time. They gave up a trio of third-down conversions, and the last one from Nix to Sutton for 13 yards on 3rd-and-6 should have been the dagger with the Chiefs out of timeouts. You run the clock down and kick the short field goal to win 17-16. Simples.

The Broncos appeared to do it right, and they were going to end the Kansas City winning streak. It was in the bag. But that’s when kicker Wil Lutz was shocked to see Leo Chenal power through the line to block the kick to win the game for Kansas City:

Epic finish, and Chenal was also the player who blocked a San Francisco extra point in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl to keep it 16-13. So, we can say this is the luckiest win yet for the Chiefs during the 15-game winning streak as they needed to block a kick that has a solid 94% success rate in the NFL.

We can definitely say that. But to say only the Chiefs win like that or that this makes Mahomes the luckiest quarterback ever, well that’s just some bullshit.

First, this was the second blocked 35-yard field goal on Sunday alone. The Saints blocked Atlanta’s 35-yard field goal before halftime in a game Atlanta lost 20-17, but not as many people were following that one. Blocking kicks this short is certainly rare, but again, we just saw one in the same window of games and I mentioned the player who did it (Chenal) also blocked an extra point (35-yard kick) in February’s Super Bowl.

Also, a block is never as lucky as an opposing kicker flat out missing a short kick. Let’s at least make sure we’re crediting Chenal for what he did here.

This is just the fourth time since 1994 where a team blocked a field goal of 35 yards or shorter in the final 2:00 of the fourth quarter in a game that was tied or a team trailed by 1-2 points:

  • 11/7/1999: Down 14-13, Green Bay’s Ryan Longwell’s 28-yard field goal was blocked in a 14-13 loss to the Bears in the closing seconds, the closest example to Lutz vs. Chiefs.
  • 10/19/2003: Tied at 13, Miami’s Olindo Mare’s 35-yard field goal was blocked at the 2-minute warning in what became a 19-13 overtime win for New England.
  • 11/5/2006: Tied at 19, Dallas’ Mike Vanderjagt’s 35-yard field goal was blocked and returned 30 yards by Sean Taylor, and thanks to a facemask penalty on the return, it set up Washington for a 47-yard game-winning field goal as an untimed down in a 22-19 final.

There also were a few games in 1995-2005 where a short kick was blocked in overtime. But if you were in overtime in those years, the game just continued until there was a winner or tie. It wasn’t as do-or-die as the Denver situation Sunday.

So, it’s absolutely a rare finish, but the funniest outcome is that distance (35 yards) instantly reminded me of the Olindo Mare game I’ve tweeted about several times since I joined Twitter in 2011.

Not only did the 2003 Patriots block a 35-yard field goal by Olindo Mare with 2:00 left in a tied game, but Mare missed a 35-yard field goal on his own to start overtime. Back then, that’s game over, so that miss is the only reason the Patriots have a record 21-game winning streak to their name. That was Game #3 in the streak, and the misses allowed Tom Brady to throw an 82-yard touchdown pass to Troy Brown, the fourth-longest touchdown pass of his career.

That Mare double whammy for the 2003 Dolphins against New England is the only game in the 21st century NFL where a kicker missed two FGs of 35 yards or shorter in the clutch.

So, spare me the “only the Chiefs and Mahomes” rhetoric with this one. Brady still has the LOAT title locked up. But hopefully this close call will have the Chiefs prepared even better for their huge trip to Buffalo in what could be the Game of the Year in the AFC.

Lions at Texans: Goofed Around with 5 Picks and Won Anyway

In the battle of a top pass offense and pass defense, the defense kind of won, but the Lions somehow still won the game despite Jared Goff throwing 5 interceptions on the road. Goff had been completing over 83% of his passes for the last 6 weeks, but he was just 15-of-30 in this game against a Houston defense that has forced some crazy numbers this year for Josh Allen and Anthony Richardson.

But Goff’s pick parade had the Lions in a 23-7 hole at halftime with C.J. Stroud looking stellar without Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Unfortunately, the Texans repeated a lot of their sins when they nearly blew a big lead against Buffalo. Stroud started turning the ball over a couple of times too, and the Texans never scored in the second half.

Oh, there were chances. But Joe Mixon (25 carries for 46 yards) was stuffed all night, and Stroud didn’t finish the job. I think you have to seriously question the Texans trying a 58-yard field goal in a tied game with 1:51 left. It was 4th-and-4 at the time. The Texans already won that Buffalo game with a 59-yard field goal by Ka’imi Fairbairn, so that might have poisoned their thinking process on this one.

But that was not the same situation. That was at the end of regulation. If Fairbairn missed that kick, the game would just go to overtime. If he missed this one, which he did badly, the Lions got the ball at the Detroit 48 and were in business with 1:51 left as they did. There’s also the added benefit of going for it, converting, and possibly running out the clock to make the field goal the last play. That’s why I think Houston likely errored in not going for that one. A past win’s unlikely success potentially leading to a future loss.

The Lions got a little conservative on their ensuing drive too, and they even willingly kicked it on third down instead of trying to gain a few more yards for Jake Bates, who just narrowly made a kick from 58 yards to tie the game with 5:01 left. That one went to the right. This time, Bates was narrowly inside the uprights to the left as time expired on a 52-yard game-winning field goal, shocking the Texans in a 26-23 final.

That’s about as close as it gets. Like the Chiefs, maybe the Lions are just the chosen team this year. You have to go back to that crazy Cowboys-Bills game in Buffalo on MNF in 2007 to find the last time a road team won after throwing five picks. The Cowboys recovered a late onside kick in that one to pull it off. The Lions were less dire than that, a real indictment on how poorly the Texans played offensively after halftime.

I think it’s safe to say neither C.J. Stroud nor Jared Goff will be winning MVP after this game, but it sure was an entertaining and dramatic mess I’d watch over most games this season.

Steelers at Commanders: In Russ We Trust

This was the game I was most interested in watching Sunday, and for the most part, it delivered with a 28-27 final. But despite all those points, I wouldn’t say the offenses and quarterbacks played that great. In fact, both quarterbacks completed 50% of their passes for about 200 yards and 3 sacks each.

But it was Russell Wilson pushing the ball down the field to his wideouts that made the difference as George Pickens had a great touchdown catch (among other highlights), and it was Mike Williams who delivered in his team debut with the 32-yard touchdown with 2:22 left to put the Steelers ahead for good.

Wilson just lives for those moments, and he might have had the go-ahead drive earlier had Jaylen Warren not fumbled at the 1-yard line. But it’s a tough loss for Washington, which led 24-14 in the third quarter. But the Commanders were just off on some throws by Jayden Daniels, who wasn’t as sharp as his reputation, and his receivers also just dropped some easy ones as there were plays to be had against the Pittsburgh defense.

But the outcome could have absolutely been different had old tight end Zach Ertz been better on a 4th-and-9 at midfield as Washington tried to drive for a winning field goal. Ertz cut the route off a yard too short of the marker, his initial forward progress was good for a first down, but he went backwards on his own, his knee went down before he was touched, and he didn’t get a good extension to pick up that last yard. So, the result was a turnover on downs even if it was really close, and had they ruled it a first down initially, it probably would have stood. But Ertz needs to be a little better there.

Washington still had every timeout left, so the game wasn’t over. But the Steelers sent their offense back out there on 4th-and-1 at the Washington 49 with the likely intention of trying to draw the Commanders offsides instead of actually going for it with 1:02 left. Shockingly, the Commanders bit hard for it quickly and that was enough to move the chains with the neutral zone infraction penalty. Game over.

But that’s the kind of game where you are happy to have someone like Russell Wilson, who lives for those moments, instead of someone like Justin Fields, who shrinks in them. Now we’ll see if the Steelers (7-2) can continue their upset streak against the Ravens at home next week in a very big game in the rivalry.

Vikings at Jaguars: Sam Darnold vs. Mac Jones in Crunch Time Is Pure Hell

A matchup between Sam Darnold and Mac Jones at quarterback is just wrong. It was bad in 2021, and it was even worse Sunday. Darnold couldn’t stop throwing picks early into the end zone, but the good news is the Vikings wised up in time to not let him do it again in the fourth quarter. They just ran the ball and kicked a 34-yard field goal to take a 9-7 lead with 7:14 left.

That’s usually not good enough to hold up in this league, but it is when Mac Jones is filling in for Trevor Lawrence on the other side. Jones had the game’s only touchdown run from 1 yard out, but that would be Jacksonville’s only score in the game as we were reminded of just how brutal Jones is in crunch time.

In the last half of this quarter, the Jaguars had the ball three times, and they ended each with a Jones turnover, including a fumbled snap and two picks before the Vikings ran out the clock in an ugly 12-7 win that could be a sign of more things to come for Darnold this season.

Christ, what a matchup. After the game, Darnold is now 4-17 (.190) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities in his career while Jones is 2-14 (.125). Two of the worst to ever do it.

But any time I see a quarterback, and this is rare, turn it over three times in one quarter in these situations, I think about the fact that Peyton Manning went seven seasons with just 3 turnovers in losses in 4QC/GWD situations. He threw a Hail Mary interception against the 2003 Jaguars and 2007 Chargers (after Adam Vinatieri missed a 29-yard field goal), and he had a strip-sack against the undefeated Patriots in 2007. That’s it. Then, of course, the Tracy Porter pick-six happened in Super Bowl XLIV, but people acted like Manning always did that when it just wasn’t true.

But Mac Jones? He always does stuff like this. That part is true.

Bills at Colts: Buffalo Glad to Face Quarterback with No Future in Indy

It must have sucked for the rest of the Colts to play well enough to beat Buffalo, but Joe Flacco had other ideas. Not only did he start the game with a brutal pick-six, but he finished with three picks, a strip-sack, and he took a sack on a fourth down near the red zone where the Colts probably should have just taken the field goal in a 20-13 game.

Instead, they lost 30-20, and that’s with a garbage-time touchdown at the end. Just a miserable outing for Flacco, who I initially supported for starting by benching Anthony Richardson. But if these last two games are the best he can muster, they might as well go back to Richardson and see what he has.

Josh Allen had his first multi-interception game of the season, but it didn’t even matter since he still made enough big plays that Flacco couldn’t match on the other side.

It’s not the ideal performance for Buffalo a week before the Kansas City game, but it showed they can create a bunch of turnovers, which could give them a leg up in that one.

49ers at Buccaneers: Stop Drafting Kickers High

Christian McCaffrey made his 2024 debut for the 49ers, but he didn’t find the end zone, and his best contributions were in the passing game with 6 catches for 68 yards. But I’m more interested in the return of my San Francisco whipping boy, kicker Jake Moody.

Moody ultimately won this game, 23-20, with a 44-yard field goal as time expired, but if he did his job better earlier, then it wouldn’t have come down to that. Moody was 3-of-6 on field goals in this game, missing wide from 49, 50, and 44 yards. With the way kickers are crushing the ball this season from deeper distances than that, this simply isn’t good enough for any kicker, let alone one the team infamously used the 99th pick in the third round on in 2023.

I just don’t see a kicker like this lasting long in San Francisco. Fortunately, they had enough weapons to come back and win the game, but this was very close to yet another blown lead as Baker Mayfield had some incredible plays late in the fourth quarter to tie it.

That’s Nick Bosa getting a stiff arm from Baker, though one has to wonder if this was some Trump voter solidarity, because since when does Bosa not take a quarterback down there? Weird play.

It’s the kind of game where you wonder how much of a difference Mike Evans would have made for the Bucs, who had to settle for a tying field goal, which set up the 49ers’ shot for redemption for Moody on the final snap.

But let’s also add Ricky Pearsall to the list of impressive rookie wideouts in this class. He had a 47-yard touchdown and was big on the game-winning drive. The 49ers only had five players get a target in this game, but even without Brandon Aiyuk being one of them, it’s an impressive group.

Too bad the most talented roster in the league has one of the worst kickers.

Eagles at Cowboys: The Sun Going Down on Jerry World Early This Year

The Cowboys got a boost defensively from the return of Micah Parsons, but their offense totally wasted it with Cooper Rush looking like his body was crippled by arthritis. What happened to the quarterback who threw for over 300 yards in some past starts and had game-winning drives in this offense? He was awful on Sunday, and Trey Lance isn’t a great option going forward. But they should make that change if Dak Prescott is getting surgery Monday to end his season.

But everyone’s season in Dallas is technically over at 3-6. Jalen Hurts turned it over twice and took 5 sacks, and the Cowboys still lost 34-6 at home. That’s what happens when your quarterback just loses the ball like a feeble old man would, and speaking of feeble old men, Ezekiel Elliott coughed one up into the end zone too. Oh, even the sun betrayed Dallas again as CeeDee Lamb couldn’t locate a ball because the sun blinded him.

The Cowboys finished 17-of-29 for 66 yards with a pick and 3 sacks taken. What a product, Jerry.

Titans at Chargers: Our Consistent Chargers

With these teams like the Bengals, you don’t know if they’re going to score and give up 7 points or 35 points. At least the Chargers are consistent as hell this season. They’re going to score 17-to-27 points, and they still haven’t allowed anyone but Pittsburgh to score 20 points on them.

They can run the ball, Justin Herbert makes good decisions, and they just win fairly low-drama games. It happened again against the Titans, who got Will Levis back but still struggled to score even if he wasn’t a turnover machine this week.

Instead, that defense had Levis feeling constipated as he took 7 sacks but only lost 18 yards on those plays. I had to look it up, and Rick Mirer for the 1996 Seahawks is the only other quarterback to take 7 sacks and not lose at least 25 yards in a game on record. Mirer also had 7 sacks for 18 yards lost against the Chiefs. You never want to be compared to Mirer.

Meanwhile, Herbert only had to throw 18 passes, completed 14 of them for 164 yards, ran for a touchdown, and didn’t take a sack. Finally, he’s enjoying the “easy” wins the NFL has to offer from time to time.

Also, I despise Calvin Ridley. He’s going on the permanent ban list after jacking up my parlay where he’d hit his under in receptions (4.5) in a Chargers’ win. He just had to catch his fifth pass for his second touchdown of the day with 49 seconds left to make it a 27-17 final.

But that’s also the first time this season the Chargers had a game go over 39.5 points, so there’s that streak over with.

Falcons at Saints: That Younghoe Not Coo

Everything was pointing against the Saints this week, but that was one of my upset picks as I know division games are weird, and the Falcons really struggled to put the ball in the end zone against the Saints earlier this year.

It happened again, and the Saints didn’t help them out with a pair of return touchdowns this time. Instead, they got two surprise touchdowns to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who only signed recently after all their wide receiver injuries.

But the Saints didn’t do a good job of finishing this game, a familiar scene for them. They punted on 5-of-6 drives after halftime, but the Falcons couldn’t capitalize as kicker Younghoe Koo ended up missing three field goals, including a 46-yard field goal that hit the upright with 6:39 left. It would have tied the game at 20.

But Kirk Cousins was later picked by Tyrann Mathieu, and making it even worse was that he gave up the 2-minute warning in the process (clock at 1:59 after pick). The Falcons had all three timeouts to get the ball back after the defense did its part with a three-and-out, but that pick was costly, and Derek Carr saved the Falcons a lot of time with an incomplete pass on third down.

So, Cousins had one more shot from his 14 with 1:35 left. But an inefficient drive took too long, and Cousins ended up throwing short of the sticks on the last play, which was no man’s land, but it was also a situation where he needed to do something different than this:

I know he couldn’t spike it since it was 4th down, but they got to get something more to the sideline to convert and take a shot at the long field goal. But given the way Koo’s day went, he probably would have missed that too.

At least the Saints have ended one of the most brutal 7-game losing streaks following a historic start.

Jets at Cardinals: Cooked

It’s hard to say what the nadir is for this Jets’ season as we thought losing to the Broncos in 10-9 game and losing to the Patriots would be pretty damn low. But they were dominated on both sides of the ball in Arizona in a 31-6 loss where you have to wonder if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t just retire after this mess of a season.

But this game had just 13 total possessions, and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a game with a number so low that was such a blowout at 31-6. Usually you see a very close game with both teams scoring, but the Jets had two field goals, two punts, a lost fumble, and they turned it over on downs in the fourth quarter when the game was way out of reach.

The Cardinals only had five full possessions deep into the third quarter, and they scored 4 touchdowns and a field goal on them. I guess we have to acknowledge that the Cardinals are decent this season. Murray was 22-of-24 for 266 yards while rushing for a pair of touchdowns as only he can with his unique “scooting” style of runs.

Meanwhile, Rodgers looks every bit his age. He finished the game 6/13 for 31 yards on his targets to Davante Adams.

Patriots at Bears: They Are Who We Thought They Were

How are we in Week 10 and Caleb Williams looks like the worst rookie quarterback now? What exactly did they teach him during the bye week? Anyone can point to the opponent difficulty for the 3-game winning streak against the Rams/Panthers/Jaguars, but it’s not like Commanders/Cardinals/Patriots are a murderer’s row of defenses in 2024.

He took 9 sacks in this game. Isn’t that supposed to be what Drake Maye is facing on the other side? Maye was only sacked once and it didn’t lose any yards. He also threw for 64 more yards on 5 fewer passes than Williams, and he continues to be a more productive runner.

But what a bummer of a performance at home as the Bears were 1-of-14 on third down. That’s how you manage just a single field goal on 11 drives. The Bears didn’t have an official turnover in this game, but that might have been more fun than watching them punt 8 times in a 19-3 loss.

Giants at Panthers: Germany Can Keep Daniel Jones

With each week we should get closer and closer to not having to see Daniel Jones in a Giants uniform, especially not in an island game. I slept thru most of this one, but I saw him run for a touchdown to make things interesting in the fourth quarter before both backs turned it over. That includes Tyrone Tracy deflecting the ball to the defense in the red zone of a 17-14 game.

Then Tracy fumbled in overtime too, which makes you wonder if he’s just had enough of Jones’ shit and wants him out of town too. The Panthers were gifted a game-winning drive by just running it 3 times for 5 yards before a 36-yard field goal won the game 20-17 in overtime. That’s a little 2-game winning streak for Dave Canales’ team now.

New York (via New Jersey) football is truly the worst these days. But I’m not sure how they expect to grow the game in Germany when we’re clearly not sending our best even if they turn out to be low-scoring games that are close at the end like Colts-Patriots was last year.

But we really need to stop unleashing Daniel Jones on millions of people who just want to watch a good game.

Next week: Week 11 might be as good as it gets this regular season. Granted, most of the games look like shit on paper, but just think about the highlights. Commanders at Eagles for the first time this year on Thursday night for control of the NFC East. Ravens at Steelers is a monster game in the AFC/AFC North at 1:00 p.m. Chiefs-Bills is the huge 4:25 showdown. Even Bengals-Chargers on SNF could be pretty good and has importance in the wild card race. Not exactly sure which angle I want to write about this week, but I’ll have something about these games.  

NFL 2024 Week 10 Predictions: All Eyes on Washington Edition

If you thought the title would be a nod to the 2024 election this week, you’d be right. If you think I’m going to give Orange Caligula any more oxygen in this space right now, you’d be wrong. He should die of gonorrhea and rot in hell. The Washington I’m watching this weekend is the Commanders, and I’m excited to finally see a full live game with Jayden Daniels. I think Steelers-Commanders is clearly the highlight game on Sunday, and we’ll see if a return by Nico Collins in Houston could bolster that matchup on SNF.

But I also want to quickly point out that Week 9 was a great reminder that you don’t always have to pick underdogs just for the sake of picking them. I’ve been guilty of that a lot this season as I didn’t want to just publish picks where the favorite covers and wins. But in Week 9, favorites were 14-1 SU (God damn Saints) and 10-5 ATS. Almost perfect.

Favorites have been on a good run after a lot of upsets early this season in the games with the biggest spreads. But now that we’re into the second half of the 2024 regular season, we are seeing this is a top-heavy season. There are nine teams with just 2 wins going into Sunday. The last team who makes the playoffs in the AFC could be a mess unless the Bengals or Jets finish strong. The NFC is stronger, but the NFC West has been messy with the teams blowing double-digit leads against each other as they jumble around .500 right now. The Cowboys have fallen apart sooner than expected.

It’s getting easier to pick winners since the games are usually playing out as lopsided as they look on paper now. But I will say that doesn’t apply to Sunday’s first game in Germany where we somehow sent the Giants and Panthers. We’re not sending (or voting for) our best.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 10 Predictions

Silly me for thinking the Ravens-Bengals would at least try to play a different game script than Week 5. But it turned into more of the same with the Bengals choking away a game they should have won (again). Maybe neither team ultimately decides who wins the Super Bowl this year, but the thin margin in those games is something else. We’re two solid snaps away from the Bengals at 6-4 and the Ravens at 5-5 right now.

Panthers-Giants: Not a chance I won’t be sawing logs during this one. But I think Carolina can build off its win and use Chuba Hubbard against that poor run defense. Giants having to win by 6.5 against anyone with Daniel Jones feels like a lot.

Patriots-Bears: Not sure how to react to Bears playing so poorly on offense since the bye. Just banking on hope that Maye makes some mistakes and Caleb channels his 2022 Justin Fields against the New England defense with a big game.

Bills-Colts: I’m very tempted to take both the Bills and Chiefs to struggle this Sunday with their big showdown a week away. Shades of 1990 Giants-49ers when they were supposed to meet undefeated and both lost the week before. I think Joe Flacco will definitely score more this week to keep the job, but I’m still going to trust the Bills on the road. But I won’t be surprised if they win by 3 and don’t cover.

Vikings-Jaguars: Can Sam Darnold get a call for a blow to the head this week? I just think the Vikings are better on both sides of the ball and should win by a touchdown.

Broncos-Chiefs: Odds are suggesting a 24-17 game and that passes the sniff test for me. Division games are weird. Sean Payton got a couple of cracks at the Chiefs last year. At least Mahomes shouldn’t have the flu this time, but I don’t think the Chiefs will score a ton against a team that knows them well and has mostly played good defense this year. All comes down to how Bo Nix handles the blitzes sure to come his way, but I think his mobility could be very useful here. I’ll go with the KC classic: they win and don’t cover.

Falcons-Saints: This is going against the grain but I’m calling for the upset. Everyone is shitting on the Saints, including the Pope having fun with hashtags on Twitter. But I think they get a first-game interim coach boost, they’re due for a 4QC win (none since 2023 started), and the Falcons needed 2 return touchdowns to beat them at home earlier this season. The losing streak stops here. If not, then I’m probably not picking them the rest of the season in any game.

49ers-Bucs: CMC is finally back, but even if he wasn’t, I think the 49ers coming off a bye and feeling healthier is an easy pick against the Bucs, who left the tank empty on Monday night in KC. I view this game quite similarly to Jags-Vikings this week. I know, the 6.5-point spread is the kiss of death this season, but I just feel good about the 49ers here.

Steelers-Commanders: I think it’s a 23-20 type of game that comes down to the last seconds and a FG. I’m going to go with Washington, because I believe the Steelers aren’t well prepared for this impressive rookie who can attack them at every level of the field. Unfamiliar opponents. Of course, it wouldn’t shock me if the Steelers won 23-17. Why that score? That’s the score they won by on the road in Arizona in 2019 against Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray, and that’s the score Washington won by in Pittsburgh in 2020 on a Monday, the game that was the beginning of the end for the Pittsburgh offense looking functional under Big Ben. But I’m still going to trust Jayden Daniels in this one as he’s actually 5-0 ATS as a favorite this year. It should be fun.

Titans-Chargers: Will Levis is back, and he’s facing the No. 1 scoring defense? Then I think the streak of games under 40 points for the Chargers can continue. Give me LA 23-13.

Jets-Cardinals: It’s not so much that I believe the Jets are going to start reeling off wins, but I just don’t know what to make of Arizona yet. Apparently I’m not alone as this is a small spread in a week with 8 games having a spread of 5.5 and higher.

Cowboys-Eagles: You might say the Eagles should dominate, but they nearly blew a 22-0 lead to Trevor Lawrence last week. Mike McCarthy usually does a respectable job with backup QBs like Cooper Rush, who made it a 20-17 game in the fourth quarter in 2022 when he was in Philly on SNF with the Eagles during their peak run to that Super Bowl year. He lost 26-17 in the end, and he threw 3 picks, but I think the Cowboys will actually make this respectable before losing again. Backdoor cover is always an option.

Lions-Texans: Preview link above but I just think the Texans are the inferior team here, and the Lions should keep rolling. But I am intrigued by the No. 1 defense in lowest completion % vs. No. 1 QB in highest completion % as Goff is over 83% in his last 5 games. But if it’s actually close, don’t discount some C.J. Stroud magic now that Nico Collins is back. Still, it’s a bummer Diggs tore his ACL as this one had high potential for a non-conference game on SNF. It still might deliver.

Dolphins-Rams: I always say fade the Dolphins on the road against good teams, but are the Rams still good? It’s hard to say, but I’m taking them with their weapons. Hopefully we can avoid a Puka ejection this week.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 10

Like I said on Saturday, if you ignore the island game mess, the NFL had a solid Week 10 lined up. Sunday proved to be one of the best days of the season so far with a few big upsets in the AFC North and a handful of games where teams kept exchanging scores before someone kicked a field goal with no time left.

The NFL may not have sent its best to Germany again, nor did it bother using the flex option on Sunday night so we didn’t have to see the Jets fail to reach the end zone again. But with the Chiefs, Eagles, and Dolphins all on a bye week, it is hard to argue with Week 10’s quality. Sometimes the bad weeks on paper tun out to be some of the best played weeks.

In all, we had 10 out of 13 games (MNF pending) with a comeback opportunity. While there were technically only two lead changes in the fourth quarter in Week 10, and one of those didn’t happen until the clock showed 0:00, it was a fantastic week for watching teams match scores in the fourth quarter.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Lions at Chargers: Game of the Week or Year?

Ladies and gentlemen, the Chargers are back. This was the Week 10 game I had circled, because I knew we were not going to see the Chargers cruise to an easy win like they had in prime time the last two weeks against the Bears and Jets. We were going to see the Chargers in their element: late afternoon, Justin Herbert trying to bail out Brandon Staley’s defense in a 7-point game in the fourth quarter with a wild finish.

But this was not your usual case of Chargering, because the Chargers actually never led in this game despite the 41-38 final and the Los Angeles offense scoring five straight touchdown drives of at least 68 yards to end the game.

Last season, we saw the Lions tie an NFL record by scoring 45 points in a wire-to-wire loss at home against Seattle in a 48-45 game. This time, the Lions won wire-to-wire despite allowing 38 points. It is only the 20th time that has happened in NFL history.

For the Chargers, I think it was the kind of game we’ve come to expect from them. Herbert played great, he only had one turnover, no sacks, and he threw for 323 yards and 4 touchdowns with a dominant Keenan Allen game (11 catches for 175 yards, 2 touchdowns).

For the Lions, I think it showed the great potential of this offense at full strength. David Montgomery returned and had a 75-yard rushing touchdown to go along with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs rushing for 77 yards and two touchdowns. Jared Goff was very good with 333 yards and no turnovers, and Amon-Ra St. Brown was dominant with 8 catches for 156 yards and a touchdown. Detroit had 533 yards of offense.

If you wanted to nitpick, the game does show some concern that the Lions may be a bit of a paper tiger (or paper lion) on defense. They won’t be able to pressure the top offenses and keep them down on the scoreboard like they’ll need to if they’re going to win a Super Bowl. The Chargers looked great for the most part on offense, and Detroit’s offense had to be spectacular to pull out the win.

Even on the game-winning drive, which started with 3:34 left, we saw the Lions bypass a 44-yard field goal on 4th-and-2 to make sure they could set up the field goal as the final snap. Hard to believe that happened in a tied game, but Dan Campbell has the reputation he does for a reason. Still, you think if he trust his defense he’d consider the field goal with 1:47 left to take the lead. But if you are that concerned about Herbert going for a touchdown, then I understand the call.

Goff delivered the 6-yard gain to Sam LaPorta, which I greatly appreciated, and the win was there. Glad to see our Chargers back on brand.

I would argue the Chargers have played the two most entertaining games of the 2023 season, and they were both home losses to the Dolphins and Lions. I’d probably give the Miami game the edge since it had multiple lead changes and the highlights were a bit stronger. It also ended on a defensive stop, a foreign concept to Staley.

Browns at Ravens: Vintage 2022 Baltimore Football

I just said a couple of weeks ago how no one can stay on top for long this season before getting knocked down a peg. The Ravens were getting a lot of hype, understandably, this week before they had their chance to sweep the Browns and put more of a chokehold on their AFC North lead.

But we have already watched this team beat itself against the Colts and Steelers, shades of what they did often in 2022 even before Lamar Jackson was lost to injury. Sure enough, despite leading at home 14-0, 17-3, 24-9, then 31-17 in the fourth quarter, the Ravens did it again in a shocking 33-31 loss to the Browns, who trailed for all but 40 seconds in the game. They literally threw a pick-six on the second play from scrimmage and trailed until the field goal went through with no time left for their only lead of the game. Hard to top that. The Ravens are just 1-3 in close games this year.

To be fair, there was some fool’s gold feeling about the leads in this game. The pick-6 was a fantastic defensive play, but it was still a tipped ball that bounced the right way. The Ravens also got a 39-yard touchdown run from their new toy Keaton Mitchell, but he somehow finished the game with 3 carries for 34 yards. None of Baltimore’s other 23 runs gained more than 9 yards, and Cleveland had the better ground game with 36 carries for 178 yards.

Baltimore was up 14-0 and Jackson was only 3-of-3 for 30 yards. If Deshaun Watson could just calm down from his horrible start, then they were going to have a chance as the running game was finding traction, and the Ravens have a recent history of melting down after blowing a handful of multi-score leads last year, including 21 points to Miami and 17 points to Buffalo.

The Browns were able to block a 55-yard field goal by Justin Tucker, which is no easy feat, and they intercepted Jackson late in the half, but didn’t get any points out of it after a curious decision to let backup P.J. Walker throw a Hail Mary instead of attempting a 60-yard field goal.

Odell Beckham Jr. showed vintage speed on a 40-yard touchdown catch to start the third quarter, but the Browns started to get in a groove and matched it with their own touchdown. But after Myles Garrett sacked Jackson on a 3rd-and-17, the Browns seemed to commit a fatal mistake with a muffed punt, giving the Ravens the ball back at the Cleveland 12. Despite being that close to the end zone, the Ravens used 3:17 on the clock to go those 12 yards for a touchdown and take a 31-17 lead with 11:34 left. It was a ghastly drive, but it was effective in taking off more time all thanks to penalties on both teams, including a Cleveland penalty that wiped out another Jackson pick.

You normally think the game should be over here, but the Browns drove for another 75-yard touchdown, then the bounce finally went their way as they got their own tipped Jackson pass at the line that was returned for a touchdown with 8:16 left. But instead of tying the game, kicker Dustin Hopkins missed the extra point wide left. Cleveland still trailed 31-30.

The offense burned a little clock, but with the group out of sync, no strong running game to rely on, and an inexcusable delay of game penalty, the Ravens soon punted it back with 4:55 left.

Cleveland’s drive was not pretty, and it had to recover a Watson strip-sack, but it was effective in getting the job done. Watson had a big 16-yard scramble into Baltimore territory, then Jerome Ford’s 12-yard run made a field goal likely. The Browns were able to set it up as the last play and Hopkins redeemed himself with a 40-yard field goal to win it 33-31 to send the Browns to 6-3 and right on the heels of the Ravens (7-3).

It has to be frustrating for Baltimore fans when it looked just like one of 2022’s losses. No lead feels truly safe with this team, and that was not the case in Baltimore for a solid two decades.

As for Cleveland, going into games like this with Watson at quarterback can’t feel good. He did enough to salvage this one, but that defense and running game are going to have to be on point for this to work in January.

But it is getting more likely that the Browns will be in that playoff mix. They could even win the division now that they secured a split with the Ravens, who lost another they should have won.

Texans at Bengals: Chapter 1 in a Future AFC Rivalry?

I think the 2019-22 seasons were largely about figuring out who would rival Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC in the 2020s. We needed new power dynamics in the conference like we used to have with teams like the Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Chargers, and some key appearances from the Ravens and Broncos.

Some contenders emerged like the Bills and Bengals, but we might be able to throw Houston into the mix soon if C.J. Stroud is going to be like this.

It was even a step back from his record-setting performance against Tampa Bay last week, but Stroud still managed to impress with another 356 passing yards in leading Houston to 30 points, and it could have been a lot more with that if the Texans protected the ball better. The Texans had 544 yards of offense, but between Stroud losing 2 fumbles early and throwing a shocking interception with a 10-point lead with 3:33 left, Houston had to sweat this one out after dominating for much of the game.

But even with all the turnovers, I want to point out that Stroud produced these big numbers as a 6.5-point road underdog against a defense that has been limiting great offenses the last few years. He also did it without No. 1 wide receiver Nico Collins, who was inactive, a story I didn’t even know about until the game was almost over. Yet, you heard all week how Tee Higgins was going to be out for this game for Cincinnati, and Ja’Marr Chase was questionable, even though he played and had 124 yards and a touchdown.

But the Texans didn’t sweat the Collins injury, and Stroud threw for 172 yards on 7-of-8 passing to Noah Brown, a forgotten receiver from Dallas who was best known for confusing viewers if CeeDee Lamb just added to his stats. Brown was going to be at best the No. 4 wideout in this offense behind Collins, rookie Tank Dell, veteran slot Robert Woods, and maybe even No. 5 behind John Metchie, a second-round pick in 2022. But Brown had 153 yards against Tampa Bay last week and 172 in this game with Stroud.

That’s why I’m saying if Stroud’s going to be legitimate like this, then we could have a new layer to this AFC. Imagine what things can look like if he gets a defense at some point soon under coach DeMeco Ryans.

There were some miscues in this game that he will hopefully learn from. After Joe Burrow threw a horrible interception in the end zone, his second in the fourth quarter, with 3:53 left, this looked like game over with Houston leading 27-17. But three plays later, Stroud threw his own horrible pick that was nearly returned for a touchdown in a spot where he could have ended the game. It was only his second interception of the season, but like I always say, this Cincinnati defense gets the timely ones like that.

Joe Mixon capped off a 4-yard touchdown drive and it was 27-24 with plenty of time. Houston even helped with another 3-and-out after Stroud was unable to put it away on a 3rd-and-3.

Believe it or not in Week 10, but this was the first time all season the Bengals had a 4QC/GWD opportunity on offense. It only took two plays for the Bengals to be deep in the red zone after Tyler Boyd took a short pass and ran 64 yards with it. But Burrow was sacked, then Boyd dropped a go-ahead score on third-and-goal. Not the most egregious drop, and not a definite game winner, but it definitely hurt, and it was a play he usually makes.

The Bengals had to settle for a 31-yard game-tying field goal and hope for overtime. But it was a bad day for defenses on the field late. Stroud was able to shake off his mistakes and found two more 20-yard plays on the day to set up his new backup kicker, Matt Ammendola, for a 38-yard field goal to win the game with no time left.

Stroud just posted back-to-back games with 350 passing yards and a game-winning drive. That’s as many such games as Tony Romo and Russell Wilson have in their careers, and it’s more than the one career game for Burrow, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, and Lamar Jackson – the other AFC contenders who have been floated as Mahomes’ rival in the last 5 years. If you’re curious, Mahomes’ number for this is 4 games.

Granted, this 350-yard game with a game-winning drive for Stroud could have been a 300-yard game with a 10-point win or 27-24 win had the rookie converted either of his first two 3rd-down opportunities. But the Bengals have fooled better quarterbacks into bigger mistakes before, and Stroud overcame all of that for a huge win as Houston (5-4) secures a key tiebreaker over the Bengals (5-4), who are in trouble again with a trip to Baltimore on a short week coming up this Thursday night.

Now granted, it was only a couple of weeks ago when Houston lost 15-13 to Carolina, the only win for the Panthers this season. It was also only in 2017 when I said Deshaun Watson was on pace for the greatest rookie quarterback season ever, and we know how that eventually turned out.

But after closing one of the darkest chapters in Texans history, the fans must be thrilled about this first chapter for Stroud.

49ers at Jaguars: Super Dud

My only comfortable read on this game was to take the under 45, because I wasn’t feeling very confident in the offenses going up against these defenses. In the end, it was one of the most lopsided games of the year as the 49ers rolled them 34-3. They even tried to get Christian McCaffrey a late touchdown to try extending his streak to 18 games, but it ended on a day where basically everyone else scored, including Deebo Samuel in his return game.

The 49ers were struggling with turnovers and the Jacksonville defense was tied for the league lead in takeaways. But the 49ers won the turnover battle 4-0, and that had a lot to do with the blowout score. Trevor Lawrence was picked twice and coughed up a fumble, and Christian Kirk had a bad fumble inside the 10 in the third quarter that sucked all the life out of this one at 20-3. The 49ers drove 81 yards the other way to make it 27-3 with Samuel’s 23-yard touchdown run and it was a wrap.

The bye week served the 49ers (6-3) well as this is still the most talented team in the league. The Jaguars (6-3) were outclassed, and I think there are legitimate concerns for why this offense isn’t producing more. The situational stats are lousy on the season, Calvin Ridley has not had a big impact, and Lawrence is not taking the next step forward. They look like they have a hard ceiling on where they can go right now.

Saints at Vikings: Dobbs Delivers in Starting Debut

The Vikings have gone from 1-4 to the longest active winning streak at 5 games after another one-possession win over the Saints in the first start for Joshua Dobbs. He has picked up the offense quickly and was excellent in this game with 268 yards, no interceptions, and he ran for 44 yards and another touchdown, showing off his mobility that has been foreign to this Minnesota offense for a long time.

But the Vikings did almost collapse from a 27-3 lead in the second half. An ineffective Derek Carr was injured and replaced by Jameis Winston, who led a pair of touchdown drives to make it 27-19. With a couple of 2-point conversion runs by Alvin Kamara, we almost were witnesses to the fabled 8+8+8 comeback from a 24-point deficit.

But the skillset of Winston that makes him dangerous to face is the same that makes him dangerous to his own team’s wellbeing. He likes to be aggressive with the ball and throw deep, and that burned him with a pair of interceptions late in the game that he really didn’t need to force because of the ample time left.

Winston had over 3 minutes left at midfield on the first one, and almost a full 2 minutes left in Minnesota territory on the last one, which came on a first down too. By the time the Vikings got the ball back, there was only time for a Hail Mary, which fell incomplete to end the game.

The Saints (5-5) continue to struggle while the Vikings are thriving even without Justin Jefferson for the last month and now without Kirk Cousins for the last two games. But Kevin O’Connell is getting to show that he knows how to coach offense, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison have stepped up, and Dobbs is doing very well.

This can still be a playoff team. Hell, they could win the division if they were to sweep Detroit, but one game at a time.

Commanders at Seahawks: Receiving Backs on the Loose

The closer we got to Sunday, the more I liked this to be a shootout with the No. 1 wide receivers dominating these secondaries. D.K. Metcalf finished with 98 yards, but it was improbably long touchdowns on short throws to running backs that put the only touchdowns on the board early in what was a field goal fest into the fourth quarter. Washington’s Brian Robinson had a 51-yard touchdown catch to start the game and Kenneth Walker created a 64-yard scoring play in the third quarter.

Eventually, the game got to where I imagined with both quarterbacks throwing for over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns. Like some other games on Sunday, it was back-and-forth scoring drives until the end with the teams combining to score on the final 5 drives.

Sam Howell led Washington on two game-tying touchdown drives. The last came with 52 seconds left, and I think that left Seattle a little too much time (with 2 timeouts left) to drive for a game-winning field goal had the Commanders gone for a 2-point conversion to try to take a lead. As we saw anyway in a tied game, Seattle was able to set up Jason Myers for a 43-yard field goal at the buzzer after two big catches by Metcalf for 44 yards.

In the end, it was about the game you’d expect between these teams. The Seahawks are 6-3 despite still being outscored by 1 point on the season. The Commanders (4-6) throw the ball more than anyone and basically have the record they deserve with an ugly loss to the Giants cancelling out an unlikely 18-point comeback win in Denver.

Falcons at Cardinals: Return of the Jedi (The One as Tall as Yoda)

On the 11-month anniversary of his torn ACL, Kyler Murray made his return to the field. Without seeing him in so long, you forget how little he is and how unique his running looks when he’s scooting around the field.

Murray’s return was a success as he led the Cardinals to a 25-23 win over a spiraling Atlanta team that has now lost to three straight quarterbacks making their season debut for their team (rookie Will Levis in Tennessee, Joshua Dobbs in Minnesota, and now Murray).

Meanwhile, the Falcons were getting nothing out of Taylor Heinicke in this game, who had 15 pass attempts and 55 passing yards in the fourth quarter before he was knocked out with an injury and replaced by Desmond Ridder. But if you are going to throw so little, why even bench Ridder in the first place?

Ridder sparked the offense in his return. After he was stopped on a 4th-down run earlier in the quarter, Ridder finished his second drive with a 9-yard touchdown run to give the Falcons a 23-22 lead with 2:33 left. But the Falcons missed the crucial 2-point conversion as Ridder was incomplete for Drake London, who bailed out Ridder with an incredible catch earlier in the drive.

Murray keyed his team’s game-winning drive with a 13-yard scramble on a 3rd-and-10, then hit his tight end Trey McBride for a 33-yard gain, the longest in the game. In fact, this game had 4 plays that gained 19+ yards and McBride had 3 of them.

That was enough for the Cardinals to set up a 23-yard field goal as the final snap for Matt Prater, who nailed it for a 25-23 win. Muray was 19-of-32 for 249 yards, a pick, and he rushed for 33 yards and a touchdown.

I think the Falcons (4-6) are a bit screwed as they head into their bye. I’d go back to Ridder for the next game but not sure it’ll matter at this point. As for the Cardinals (2-8), they are in a weird position. The return of Murray probably means they are not going to get the No. 1 pick, but do they still settle for a different rookie quarterback in 2024, or do they try to make this work with Murray?

I guess it depends on how well he plays the rest of the year. After some of the recent draft duds with these college quarterbacks, sometimes newer isn’t any better.

Packers at Steelers: Mostly on Brand

When this game started with three straight touchdown drives, I felt bamboozled again. These are two of the worst offenses in the league, especially in the first half of games. But apparently, Matt Canada calling the game from the field at least produces a good start.

It’s the rest of the game where the offense doesn’t do much as Kenny Pickett only passed for 126 yards in this one. I was not impressed (again). Pickett’s 24.3 QBR was the lowest of any quarterback to win in Week 10. He got away with an awful pick on the second touchdown drive after the defender just failed to get his feet in bounds at the sideline.

The good news is this was one of the best run blocking performances by the Steelers in the last 5 years. They had 205 yards on the ground. Keeping veteran Dan Moore at his usual left tackle spot and putting first-round rookie Broderick Jones at right tackle has helped improve the line.

But the Steelers had to grind for this one again as Jordan Love was gambling and getting away with it for three quarters. The Packers even started the fourth quarter with a trick play that looked like it would have worked, but the receiver dropped the ball in a 20-19 game. Actually, they ruled it a fumble that the Packers recovered, which is what the team would have wanted ruled earlier when it sure looked like the Steelers had a lateral that Green Bay recovered. But it was ruled an incomplete pass.

Down 23-19, Love was picked in the end zone after Patrick Peterson tipped a ball to Keanu Neal that was intended for Christian Watson. Almost like the Seattle play at the end of the 2013 NFC Championship Game against San Francisco. Love had some success in this game, but he was 2/7 for 23 yards and 2 interceptions when targeting Watson, who I want to start calling Cheesehead Claypool after this disappearing act following a good rookie year. Similar to what Chase Claypool did in Pittsburgh in 2020-21.

But Love had a chance with 59 seconds left to drive 81 yards for the win. He got 46 of them right away with a big play to Jayden Reed, the second-round rookie who continues to improve. It looked like the Steelers might blow this one, but just like last week when they stopped the Titans with a game-ending pick in a 4-point win as a 3-point home favorite, they did the exact same thing here with a game-ending pick in the red zone off Love.

The Packers have now gone 7 straight games without scoring 21 points, their longest streak since a 10-game streak in 1990-91.

The Steelers have been outgained in every game this season and are still 6-3, which has never been done before. In fact, the Steelers are the 107th team since 1940 to be outgained in at least 9 straight games at any time of year, and they have the best record (6-3) among those teams. The only other team out of the 107 to have a winning record was the 1985-86 Browns, who were 5-4. You could say Mike Tomlin is doing some Marty Schottenheimer (Martyball) things with this team.

But it’s really just turnover differential and timely plays. I don’t know how long they can sustain this, but the schedule still looks favorable for 9-10 wins doing exactly this style of play.

Giants at Cowboys: Monster Dallas Win Against Division II Team

The Cowboys did not disappoint with the biggest point spread of the season (-17.5) in a 49-17 thrashing of the Giants. Dak Prescott passed for 404 yards and 4 touchdowns. CeeDee Lamb had 11 catches for 151 yards and scored a rushing touchdown. He is the first player ever to stack three straight games with 10 catches and 150 receiving yards.

But I believe games like this only fuel why people don’t trust the Cowboys. They basically operate in three modes:

  • Blowing out scrubs like the Tommy DeVito-led Giants.
  • Playing down to scrubs like their upset loss in Arizona this year or nearly blowing it as a 17-point home favorite against the 2022 Texans last December.
  • Looking dumb and losing to elite teams like the Eagles and 49ers.

When the Cowboys bring their A game, they look like the best team in the league. But just like how no one trusts the Dolphins this year against the good teams, we have been right to treat Dallas the same way for years.

Also, the Giants have to be the worst team in the NFL, right? Save for a half in Arizona where the Cardinals may have literally tanked, this team has been garbage on offense all year and now the defense is starting to give up huge numbers too.

The Giants are 4-15-1 under Brian Daboll ever since his 6-1 start.

Colts vs. Patriots: We Haven’t Sent Our Best to Germany Since WWII Ended

I woke up at noon and saw it was 10-6 Colts with just under 5:00 left, and all I could do was laugh. Of course, we send the Colts to Germany for their first island game of the season and immediately their streak of scoring 20 points in every game under Shane Steichen ends. That was my only good prediction for this game.

But I started checking the box score and it didn’t seem like a 10-6 game. Each team had a respectable third-down conversion rate (respectable for who these QBs are), there was only one turnover (Gardner Minshew INT) to that point, there were no failed fourth-down plays, and each team missed a field goal.

Looking into it later, what you had was abysmal red zone play by the Patriots, a bunch of third-down sacks taken by Mac Jones, and an 8-minute drive that bled into the fourth quarter before Bill Belichick still settled for a 24-yard field goal instead of going for a 4th-and-goal at the 5. It was 7-3 and your little kick made it 7-6. Why not take advantage of the field position and go for it? Your defense was playing great.

Of course, the Patriots wasted this defensive effort when Jones threw an atrocious interception in the red zone with 4:16 left.

That could have been the end of the Jones era in New England, because he was benched for the final drive when the Patriots got the ball back with 1:52 left. Bailey Zappe took over, and the move might have been permanent if he led this team on a 95-yard game-winning touchdown drive. Things were moving to midfield too before maybe the worst fake spike of all time:

I can’t seem to find the Madden view of this one, because that makes it look even worse. So much for the Zappe era, and so much for the Belichick era ending on a high note. He should have just walked away after 2018, because now he’s going to have to find a new team for 2024 if he’s going to coach long enough to break the all-time wins record.

By the way, this is the first time the Patriots lost a game after only allowing 10 points since September 23, 2001 against the Jets. That was the fateful game where Drew Bledsoe was injured by a Mo Lewis hit and Tom Brady replaced him in a 10-3 loss.

If Belichick was hoping a quarterback change would save his bacon this day, he was sorely mistaken.

Titans at Buccaneers: Can’t Find a Pulse

Admit it, you didn’t care one iota about this game. The Titans have played 6 games away from Nashville this season and have yet to top 16 points in any of them. They are also 0-6 when not home where they are 3-0 and average 27.5 points per game. Fun.

As it turns out, the low success rate Will Levis had in his 4 touchdown debut against Atlanta that was filled with 50-yard bombs has not led to more success for the rookie. This was his worst outing yet as he completed 19-of-39 passes for 199 yards and took 4 sacks in the 20-6 loss. Even the running game was shut down (16 carries for 42 yards) as the Buccaneers looked completely different from the defense that was shredded by C.J. Stroud and the Texans last week.

Mike Evans had a huge game with 143 yards and a touchdown, and he even dropped another score. He had 4 catches of 20-plus yards. The Titans didn’t have a play gain more than 15 yards until they trailed 20-6 with half a quarter to play.

Not much more to say about this one. The Titans’ offense simply hasn’t traveled all year long.

Jets at Raiders: J-E-T-S Just Embargo Touchdown Scoring

Since Monday night, we have watched the Jets play 8 quarters in prime time without the team scoring a single touchdown. The Jets have 8 offensive touchdowns in 9 games this season, so I guess it’s not that big of a surprise. But when you can’t break through against the defenses of the Chargers and Raiders, you have some pretty big flaws.

The Jets weren’t doing bad in this field goal fest, and I guess a 16-12 final with only 22 total possessions was better than the toilet bowl this game could have been. But once the Raiders finally broke the 9-9 tie by finding the end zone thanks to a 40-yard run by Josh Jacobs, you felt like the Jets had little hope without a massive turnover and easy field position for Zach Wilson and the offense.

Aidan O’Connell wasn’t great for the Raiders, but he only turned it over once, and he threw a game-winning touchdown pass to rookie tight end Michael Mayer. After the Jets caught their break when the defense forced a Jacobs fumble with 6:06 left, Wilson saved his worst decision of the night on an interception from the Raiders 20 by Robert Spillane with 1:14 left.

The Raiders went 3-and-out and saved the Jets a timeout by throwing incomplete on 3rd-and-5, which I would have called a run to Jacobs for. Wilson had 53 seconds left to go 80 yards, an even bigger miracle than the game-tying drive against the Giants this year. Tight end Tyler Conklin did make some nice plays, including a 27-yard grab, to give the Jets a chance, but they wasted a solid 7 seconds by not getting their final timeout in after Conklin was down. Jets coach Robert Saleh alleged he was trying to get the timeout at 20 seconds, but no one acknowledged him. I’m not sure what happened there but it left the Jets only with 13 seconds left and 44 more yards to go. That’s 2 plays.

I have to say Wilson did a very good job of escaping pressure on the final snap and giving his guys a shot at the Hail Mary in the end zone. But it was not caught, and the Jets lost 16-12 to fall to 4-5, which will be no better than 13th in the AFC.

The Raiders are suddenly 5-5 and celebrating wins under interim coach Antonio Pierce like they won the Super Bowl, but these New York teams are not anyone’s Super Bowl this year. The schedule will get much tougher and I’ll be surprised if the Raiders don’t max out at 7-10, which is the record I had for them before the season started.

The Jets gambled on a quarterback staying hot after his 40th birthday, and they made his backup the kid who thinks hotness begins at 40. They are losing for it now.

Because unlike the past boring editions of teams who just try to hide the quarterback by playing great defense and running the ball, the Jets don’t do enough running. The backs had 17 carries for 54 yards in Vegas, and these are no scrubs with Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. But Wilson himself had 4 runs for 54 yards as a scrambler.

But hey, as long as they keep starting him, we get to see records. Wilson is the first quarterback since the 1970 merger to pass for 260 yards in back-to-back games without leading his team to a single touchdown in either game.

Just put an embargo on touchdown scoring and the Jets might be playoff ready.

Next week: The last time I was this ready for a MNF game, it was cancelled halfway through the first quarter. But Eagles-Chiefs is a big one, and since it’s prime time where offense dies this season, I fully expect the Chiefs to win 16-13. But Bengals-Ravens on TNF is another big one, Steelers-Browns should be a bloodbath at 1:00, and we’ll just ignore the absolute mess they lined up for the late afternoon and SNF (Vikings-Broncos). But I might have a special preview on Chiefs-Eagles or at least something related this week.

NFL Week 10 Predictions: Island Game Slop Edition

The NFL’s Week 10 schedule is not the worst I’ve ever seen, but the sequencing of the games with the choices for the four island games might be the worst this century. Would the week sound so bad if Thursday night started with Seattle hosting Washington, the Germany game was Lions-Chargers, Sunday night was 49ers-Jaguars, and Monday night was I guess the same Broncos-Bills matchup assuming Denver plays better?

The masses had no business seeing Panthers-Bears, Colts-Patriots, and Jets-Raiders, and that was true back in April. Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams in the same stadium? Who gives a shit? Enjoy the season-low ratings for Zach Wilson vs. Aidan O’Connell since you chose not to flex and spare us, NBC.

But Colts-Patriots is laughably bad for a 9:30 a.m. start. After the disappointment last week with Chiefs-Dolphins, I will not be getting up for this one. In fact, I might get up normal time (12:05), take a shit, take a shower, and maybe I’ll catch the tail end to see if the Colts kept their 20-points streak alive. To think a Colts-Patriots game used to be the biggest thing in the NFL. How the mighty have fallen.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 10 Predictions

No one won on Bears-Panthers on TNF with a push. I really didn’t win thanks to 2 f’n yards that Chuba Hubbard couldn’t get.

I want to start by saying favorites were 12-2 SU last week (good spread record too, I believe), so maybe this is a bounce-back week for underdogs, but I didn’t see a lot of enticing ones on the schedule. Just ended up taking the Vikings over Saints, then I also changed my pick from Tampa to Tennessee. Might be letting the Will Levis game vs. Atlanta screw me over twice here as I just think he can hit some big plays against the Bucs, and Kyler Murray might be the next QB to make his season debut for his team and upset the path to doom Falcons.

Honestly, I have no real feel for Colts-Patriots. It might be the biggest gap the Colts have over the Patriots roster-wise since 2005 or even longer ago. But when my brain has gone to “island game = shit offense” and I see the way the Colts didn’t even get 200 yards in Carolina and won thanks to 2 pick-sixes last week, I’m just going to go with the Pats to end the 20-points streak and sneak out an ugly win.

I also think 49ers-Jaguars is a hard game to read since the Jaguars are not statistically strong but win, and the 49ers are super talented but have lost 3 in a row. It’s also an early body clock game across the country. My favorite pick in this game is the under 45.5.

I don’t believe in Cleveland, so I took Baltimore to win by a full touchdown. We’ll see what happens as division games are weird. Same reason I ultimately decided to take the Giants to cover 17.5 points in Dallas. I know it looks bleak, but the Cowboys almost lost straight up to Houston as a 17-point favorite last year. They already lost as a 13-point favorite to Arizona this year. I hate big spreads like this.

Packers are a perfect opponent for Pittsburgh at home. Shit offense (first half under looks great) and not a scary offense. I’m sure it’ll be a nail-biter and maybe even go to overtime.

Texans-Bengals could be interesting but I think C.J. Stroud comes back to Earth a bit from last week. But would be something if Tee Higgins (out) and Ja’Marr Chase (questionable) both missed the game. Huge opportunity for Houston to get a H2H tie-breaker and move ahead of the Bengals in the AFC.

Lions-Chargers is our saving grace of the late afternoon. Should be back to a normal Chargers game, which means Justin Herbert with the ball in a one-score game in the 4th quarter. I also think Seahawks-Commanders has potential to be a tight finish with decent offensive numbers.

I already have to write 2 articles on the prime-time games early in the week, so by Friday night, I’m ready to just get them over with. But I think the Jets use their superior defense to win that stinker, and the Bills should bounce back and win against Denver, which I still think is an underwhelming team.

At least I’ll probably be done early on Sunday night with this slate.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 10

My expectations were for a pivotal Sunday in the NFL, and the games did not disappoint. We saw two overtime games that should be significant, including one of the all-time craziest fourth quarters in NFL history in Buffalo.

There were five teams that blew a double-digit lead this week. That’s the most since Week 5 of the 2020 season also had five, but these were games with crowds. No pandemic football.

In total, nine of the 13 games featured a comeback opportunity. If certain teams fall apart or go on a run from here, we are going to look back at this Week 10 as a crucial week to crafting this season’s narrative.

One thing I’m positive of: the longest drought in NFL history without a repeat champion will continue. The 2022 Rams are 3-6 and you can send them fishing. Given I had them still capturing the No. 1 seed this year despite not repeating, that is going to go down as one of my worst final record predictions.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Vikings at Bills: The Day the MVP Went Away

Instead of trying to take in everything that happened in one of the most chaotic fourth quarters in NFL history, I think we have to start with the big picture of what this game has done to the 2022 season’s narrative.

Maybe I didn’t believe it myself, but last week I said this game could dramatically change the shape of this season.

The races in both conferences: Buffalo has gone from the No. 1 seed to the No. 6 seed just like that. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 8-1 and running away with the NFC North.

The Super Bowl odds: Buffalo has been the favorite all year long, but you might see that change for the first time here with the Eagles and Chiefs starting to look like more attractive options.

The MVP award: Yeah, I think Josh Allen just destroyed his chances there. Six interceptions since the Kansas City win. Three straight games with multiple picks. One of the closest blunders to Joe Pisarcik.

Now our expectations for how we view the Vikings and Bills might change.

At least, my Buffalo views are souring after these last 10 quarters. They seem to be doing the same thing as last year where they peaked with the win in Kansas City, seemed to think that was the Super Bowl, and now they’re struggling in games they shouldn’t be. The elbow injury wasn’t enough to stop Allen from playing, and I’m not ready to accept that as an excuse when it was the egregious decision making and not the physical aspect of Allen’s game that blew this one.

But have my views changed on the Vikings, now 8-1, being a legit contender and vastly improved team this year? Um, no. Not really.

As I have said in past weeks, I still am seeing largely the same Minnesota team we always get, but things keep happening for them in close games, and not always by their own actions. The Vikings are now 7-0 in close games, including a 5-0 record at 4QC opportunities. This is unreal stuff from a team with a quarterback we never see this from.

If you think I’m going to let one of the silliest fourth quarters of all time change my mind on this team, then you’re crazy. For almost three quarters, this was textbook Minnesota in a big game, just like the Eagles loss in Week 2. The Vikings were down 27-10, the defense was getting shredded, and Kirk Cousins had multiple interceptions.

We’ve seen this story before. But this time, Dalvin Cook immediately broke an 81-yard touchdown run, the longest of his career. That was huge.

But okay, the Bills kept driving after that and were ready to go back up 17 points. I loved going for the fourth-and-2. Get it back up to 17, three scores, and don’t go for the 13-point lead and open yourself up to losing by a point. But Allen, as he has been doing since the second half against Green Bay, did not deliver. He panicked under pressure, and since it was fourth down, he had to do something, so he tossed a pick to Patrick Peterson in the end zone. Bad play and bad call only needing two yards and not the full seven for a touchdown.

But then the Vikings had to survive two fourth-down conversions just to keep the game going with another touchdown drive. They did it, and C.J. Ham scored a 3-yard touchdown run. But the Vikings missed the extra point to keep it a 27-23 game, because they are the same Vikings.

Granted, terrible three-and-out by the Bills that barely took any time off. But here is where the game was ultimately decided. The Vikings needed a go-ahead touchdown drive, and in the typical Cousins fashion, it was not going well. He took two sacks, including one by Von Miller to set up fourth-and-18. That’s a game-winning situation for a championship-aspiring defense. Period.

But instead of stopping them there, the Bills try to intercept Cousins’ miracle heave to Justin Jefferson, and the defensive back actually helps Jefferson secure the unbelievable catch for a 32-yard gain to extend the game. That should have been the game. Score some big points for the “knock it down” crowd, because by putting those two hands in there to go along with Jefferson’s one, it helped Jefferson get more grip on the ball and come down with it. Huge mistake.

But even after the miracle catch, the Vikings blow it. Jefferson is short of the plane to bring up a fourth-and-1. Cook drops a possible touchdown on a play where Buffalo was offside that would have counted as a touchdown if he scored. I actually agreed with the quarterback sneak by Cousins, but you have to do the Drew Brees one where you stick the ball out to break the plane, then pull it back. Cousins just didn’t get any push and he was down short of the end zone with 49 seconds left.

Once again, that should be the ballgame. Now, the Bills shouldn’t take an intentional safety in a 4-point game, because then you can lose on a last-second field goal. They just need to push the pile forward a little and get some breathing room. Game f’n over. Vikings only had one timeout left.

Instead, we get the worst play by any offense with a lead in the last minute since Joe Pisarcik and the Miracle at Meadowlands. Somehow, Allen and his center botch the exchange and he fumbles the ball, shits down his legs, and fumbles the MVP for good this year. The Vikings recover for a touchdown and lead 30-27 with 41 seconds left.

Just inexcusable. To Allen’s credit, he does a great job coming back with a drive without any timeouts to force overtime with a game-tying field goal. However, that probably shouldn’t have happened the way it did. Gabriel Davis got out of bounds with a 20-yard catch, but I think he dropped that ball and it was incomplete. The Bills did a good job of getting to the line quickly and running the next play, but it’s outrageous the booth did not buzz down to review that crucial call. If the Vikings lost this game, they would have a legit beef there for sure.

But the Bills moved it 69 yards and tied the game for overtime, concluding one of the wildest fourth quarters in NFL history. These teams are known for a few wild ones, but I’d have to put this right up there with Bills-Chiefs last year (42-36), Vikings vs. Ravens in 2013 in the snow, 2003 Colts vs. Buccaneers in Tampa, and 2000 Jets vs. Dolphins on MNF. This is high on the list for sure.

We get to overtime and the Vikings receive. They overcome a strip-sack that could have killed them in their own end, then a bad throw gets bailed out with a DPI flag on second-and-22. The Bills do a good goal-line stand from the 2, forcing Minnesota into a field goal and 33-30 lead.

So, with 3:35 left, Allen can totally redeem himself here. But we know the Bills are a bit shaky in these situations, which is why I’ve compared Allen to 1990s Brett Favre multiple times. Two wild and crazy front-runners who are a mixed bag in these moments, and they come through far less than the average fan probably imagines.

Bad elbow or not, Allen had no problem scrambling for 38 yards on two plays to quickly get into scoring range. But after getting to the Minnesota 20, I’m not sure what he saw, but he threw a bad looking pick to Peterson again and the game was over. Peterson will come away from this one with a good highlight reel to lead his Hall of Fame montage.

The Bills blew a 17-point lead at home with a fumbled snap on a sneak the lowlight of a game they had no business blowing. They just blew a 14-3 lead in New York last week. They lost in Miami despite gaining nearly 300 more yards than the Dolphins.

This team is its own worst enemy, and I don’t know if Allen misses offensive coordinator Brian Daboll reining him in a bit. Maybe Ken Dorsey, the 2022 OC, is too soft on him and is letting him get away with reckless play the last three weeks. But something is just off here.

So, I am souring a bit on Buffalo and starting to wonder if Patrick Mahomes will ever have to play a road playoff game. The entire AFC East would be in the playoffs if they started today, and the Bills would only be the No. 6 seed. Insane change of events.

But am I on board with Cousins and Jefferson being the Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp of 2022 and believe they’re going to win a bunch of playoff games by three points and vanquish Tom Brady and the Eagles in January to get to the Super Bowl?

No, I don’t buy it. Not when you needed all of this to happen to get a win over a good team.

But are the Bills front-runners who you shouldn’t trust in the clutch? Oh indeed. Are the Vikings enjoying this 8-1 start after years of seeing games go the other way? For sure.

I’ll leave it at that for now, but this is one that will definitely be remembered for a long time. Glad to have experienced it live on TV.

Cowboys at Packers: He’s Still Aaron Rodgers, He’s Still Mike McCarthy

There is no team during the Aaron Rodgers era that the Packers have ripped the heart out of worse than the Cowboys. Not only were there the dramatic playoff wins in 2014 and 2016, but you had a late game-winning drive in a 2017 game, a turnover fest won in 2019, a 23-point comeback led by Matt Flynn in 2013, and now this game that can save Green Bay’s season and make a lot of people lose faith in Dallas being any different this year.

I really thought Rodgers would let hubris get the best of him and he would throw like crazy with Mike McCarthy coming back to town for his first game at Lambeau with favored Dallas, the better team on both sides of the ball.

But the Packers basically broke the glass casing around Rodgers in the second half and let him be the Dallas killer he is, and McCarthy stood there and took it on the chin as McCarthy-coached teams do in these situations.

Meanwhile, Dak Prescott has now thrown three touchdown passes in three different losses to the Packers, though this one was not his finest work. Dak had 113 yards on 25 passes at halftime with two bad picks.

The shocker was Rodgers throwing six passes in the first half and handing off 18 times for 83 yards. It makes some sense. The backs are better than your receiving corps (allegedly). The Cowboys have a strong pass rush. I can see it making sense.

But it didn’t look like it was going to work with CeeDee Lamb destroying the secondary and helping Dallas to a 28-14 lead going into the fourth quarter.

But Rodgers scrambled on a third down for a conversion and that seemed to get him going. He faced a fourth-and-7 in Dallas territory and threw his best pass of the day to rookie Christian Watson for a 39-yard touchdown. That was the game changer. Rodgers showed a ton of trust in a rookie he has barely got to play with due to injury or him making mistakes that would make a veteran distrust him.

The Cowboys ended up going scoreless on their last four drives. Rodgers tied the game with his third touchdown pass of the game to Watson with 2:29 left.

The game went to overtime and I wasn’t really feeling it when Dallas wanted the ball first, but I understand why you make that call in Green Bay. A holding penalty really put Dallas in a bind and set up a fourth-and-3 situation at the Green Bay 35.

I must say I liked the decision to go for it. The field goal doesn’t end the game. It’s not even a guarantee to be made as Brett Maher is no Justin Tucker. A miss there would be awful in giving Rodgers the ball at his 43. I liked going for it, but the Cowboys just didn’t execute the play and Dak was nearly sacked before throwing up a miracle that wasn’t answered.

The Cowboys were about to blow a 14-point fourth-quarter lead for only the second time in team history. You may recall the first coming against Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez’s Jets in 2011 on Sunday Night Football.

This was probably worse since it can motivate Green Bay to go on a run instead of being left for dead with a sixth-straight loss. All Rodgers needed was one vintage throw to Allen Lazard for a 36-yard gain and that had the Packers in range. Mason Crosby was good from 28 yards on the field goal and the Packers pulled it out, 31-28.

We’ll see how big this one can be as Green Bay (4-6) gets an important head-to-head tie-breaker over Dallas (6-3) now. We’ll see if Watson builds on this three touchdown performance. Rodgers only threw 20 passes in the game. He’s only had two games in his career that he played into the fourth quarter with fewer pass attempts than he had on Sunday. But the backs delivered with 203 rushing yards.

In some ways, it was unlike any Rodgers game we’ve seen before, and yet because it was him sticking it to Dallas and McCarthy taking a bad loss, it was still very familiar football theater.

Chargers at 49ers: The Never Above .500 Club

Justin Herbert (0-4) and Kyle Shanahan (0-5) are now a combined 0-9 in games where they have a chance to go above .500 in their career records in the NFL for the first time.

With the Chiefs up next for the Chargers, it could be a few more weeks before Herbert gets there. But the Chargers put on a decent effort for most of the game while being outmatched and shorthanded.

Now that Shanahan is 48-48 with a trip to Arizona next, maybe he’ll finally get above .500 in the next game. Or the team will lose it after some inexplicable calls.

But that defense was nasty after halftime. The Chargers didn’t have a play longer than 12 yards after halftime. On five second-half possessions, the Chargers punted three times, turned the ball over on downs, and Herbert threw an interception on the first play of the final drive in the last minute.

I still pound the table that the 49ers don’t really use Deebo Samuel the way they should, and you could argue his health may have limited his touches here after missing the last game. But in throwing Christian McCaffrey into the mix, I just think this offense has so many weapons that Shanahan gets confused on how to use them all. Elijah Mitchell returned at running back and got 18 carries for 89 yards to 14 carries for 38 yards from McCaffrey. Maybe that was the right call since the run looked better when Mitchell was given the ball, but that was a big trade to make for CMC.

This offense really needs to do more than 19 points and a fourth-quarter comeback in a game like this. The Chargers were outmatched and yet George Kittle got one catch, Samuel had two, and Brandon Aiyuk dropped a touchdown.

Every week it feels like there’s some excuse about a player returning from injury or someone learning the playbook or figuring out their role. I guess I just hold the talent involved to a higher standard and would like to see more from this team.

But at least they won. And they almost got one of the cheapest covers ever, but the Chargers are a tough team to beat by a big margin.

Seahawks at Buccaneers: Absolutely No Nazi Jokes Here

The NFL’s first game in Germany went from bad on paper in the preseason to decent on paper this week to not so great of an outcome. But it did at least produce a strong contender for funniest play of the year:

Tom Brady also threw a bad pick in the fourth quarter, but the Seahawks wasted the first half with terrible play on third down and no run game to speak of. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter when the Seahawks trailed 21-3 that Geno Smith started to look like the quarterback he’s been this season. He would lead two quick touchdown drives to make it 21-16 with an incredible pass on a fourth down to Marquise Goodwin for a score.

But in getting a second chance to salt away the game, Brady and the Buccaneers easily picked up four first downs to run out the final 3:55 on the clock. Call it a fake close game. Kenneth Walker was held to 17 yards on 10 carries while the worst-ranked rushing offense in football piled up 164 yards. Seattle had run defense problems earlier this season but it looked like it was turning the corner when the Seahawks held down Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkley in consecutive weeks.

Alas, Brady had his defense and running game working for him in Munich. Julio Jones and Chris Godwin also caught touchdowns and the line didn’t give up a sack. It was probably the most complete game the Buccaneers played all season, and yet it was a 21-16 game with four minutes left.

But Brady running a route was something I did not see coming.

Jaguars at Chiefs: Low Drama Dissection

Kansas City’s 27-17 win over Jacksonville was by far the least dramatic home game for the Chiefs this year. Their first four home games were all decided by 1-to-4 points with the Chiefs often trailing, but this was a wire-to-wire win over a team not ready for shootouts. Still, it was disappointing to see the Jags fail to establish their running game with Travis Etienne after the tear he was on the last month.

Patrick Mahomes threw another four touchdowns and will likely take a big step forward in the MVP odds unless Jalen Hurts does something ridiculous on Monday night.

But my biggest takeaway is how stupid were the Giants to not find a role for wide receiver Kadarius Toney? He never seemed like a first-round pick they needed, and two coaching staffs never found a proper role for his talent. His health has been a problem, but if he can stay on the field, the Chiefs are going to love this dude.

Getting an expanded look with JuJu Smith-Schuster going out with a concussion, Toney scored his first NFL touchdown and finished with 90 yards on six touches, including a 32-yard rush. No other defense will leave him as wide open as he was on the touchdown play, but this is another toy for Mahomes to play with.

The rich really do get richer.

Colts at Raiders: Raiders Do Look Horrible

I’m amused and annoyed with this one. I thought the comedy factor would have been maximized if the Colts pulled this off with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback to go along with Jeff Saturday, the only coach in the last 60 years with no previous experience coaching in college or the NFL.

But if you told me Matt Ryan was going to start this game, I would have said Colts +4.5 was a great pick and they probably even win this game. The Raiders have been that bad at holding leads, and Ryan’s already led a bunch of comebacks this year. He never should have been benched for Ehlinger.

As it turns out, Saturday’s first big move was to put Ryan back in the starting role, and he waited until warm-ups to do it. We’ll need more games to figure out if Saturday is just a genius for this job, or if he was fortunate to catch the Raiders with his better quarterback playing and a healthier version of Jonathan Taylor. Both players were key in the win, and the Raiders might as well just forfeit the rest of season if you’re going to let old Ryan run for 39 yards like this:

Right after that play, the Raiders got Michael Pittman to fumble, which could have been crucial with the Colts down 20-19 in the final six minutes. But in trying to return the loose ball, the Raiders never got possession and Pittman got back on top of it. On the next play, Ryan found Parris Campbell on a short throw that looked way too easy turning into a 35-yard touchdown with 5:07 left. The Colts only allowed one sack in the game.

Like most Vegas games this year, it came down to Derek Carr trying to lead a game-winning drive. Like every game but Houston, it didn’t work out. Carr’s fourth-and-7 pass to Davante Adams in the end zone was defended well by Stephon Gilmore, and no flag was thrown. Both players were fighting with each other, so it was a good no call.

It hasn’t been pretty, but in eight games for the Colts, Ryan has already led five fourth-quarter comebacks (one tie) and four game-winning drives. Ryan’s 38th fourth-quarter comeback win ties him with Drew Brees for the fourth most in NFL history. Ryan’s 46th game-winning drive moves him out of a tie with John Elway for the sixth most in NFL history.

I would not be surprised if I wake up Monday afternoon and see Josh McDaniels got the axe in Vegas. The Davis family is not afraid of bold coaching moves, though nine games would be one of the quickest pink slips ever handed out to an NFL coach.

But is it not justified? He couldn’t beat the guy who was calling this team horrible on Twitter two weeks ago as part of his ESPN studio job. I don’t know how many more games Saturday will win with Indy, but I bet the tightly-connected network of NFL coaches hates this guy and is actively rooting for him to fail. Why? It would make them look silly when they try boasting about their profession where you have to work 100 hours and sleep in your office just so you can punt on fourth-and-1 or call a trick play to throw the ball to your 45-year-old quarterback.

Saturday knows football. Winning football at that. The knowledge alone does not qualify him to be a coach but understanding the game and being a leader should get you most of the way there. Look at McDaniels and his lack of leadership everywhere he goes any time he isn’t holding onto Bill Belichick.

The Colts are lucky McDaniels bailed on them in 2018.

Saints at Steelers: T.J. Watt and Andy Dalton Return to Pittsburgh

If T.J. Watt plays, the Steelers are more than likely to win. If T.J. Watt is out, the Steelers are almost certain to lose.

It shouldn’t be that cut-and-dry for a defensive player in 2022, but it kind of is in Pittsburgh. At least, New Orleans was a perfect opponent for the Steelers to welcome back Watt to face out of a bye week. Andy Dalton is now 3-14 in starts against Pittsburgh, and all he could muster was 10 points of offense in this one after he was intercepted and stopped cold on a fourth-down quarterback sneak in the fourth quarter of a close game.

But this was hardly a Watt masterpiece even though he made his presence felt a few times. It was also a good 2022 and team debut by safety Damontae Kazee, who made the fourth-quarter pick of Dalton in a 13-10 game after Kenny Pickett technically led the first game-winning drive of his career.

As for Pickett, it’s his first legit win since he was knocked out of the Tampa Bay game in the third quarter. It’s his first legit game of not throwing an interception as he made smarter decisions with the ball. He did take six sacks and was limping as the protection was not too good this week, but the run blocking showed up.

The Steelers rushed for 217 yards and even Najee Harris (99 yards) looked good. The Steelers had four different players register a 20-yard run, something the team hasn’t done in decades (if ever).

They won’t all be as easy as this one, but the Steelers proved again any quarterback can look more comfortable if you give him a consistent running game and strong defense to let him know he doesn’t have to do everything drive after drive.

If Watt stays healthy, I still think the Steelers are going to land around seven wins after the 2-6 start. That Watt injury really cost them the potential for some close wins over the Patriots, Browns, Jets, and Dolphins. But this season was never about seriously competing for the playoffs. They just have to get Pickett comfortable and make sure he’s capable of being the guy going forward.

Sunday was encouraging again.

Browns at Dolphins: The Synchronized Dolphin Show

What to make of these teams now? The Browns quickly scored an opening-drive touchdown, then watched the Dolphins score the next 24 points in a game that never got close after halftime. It’s the Browns’ second blowout loss this season after the Patriots got them 38-15 earlier this year. They are 0-3 against the AFC East, but hey, at least they are catching Buffalo at a good time next week…

It was another big game for the Miami offense, but it was by far the most balanced effort yet. The running game that has been struggling finally clicked to the tune of 195 yards. Jeff Wilson had 119 yards after coming over from the 49ers in a trade.

The passing game wasn’t just Tyreek Hill (44 yards and a short touchdown) and/or Jaylen Waddle (66 yards) dominating. The Dolphins had five 30-yard receivers, including Trent Sherfield (63 yards), who caught his first touchdown before halftime on a great effort.

Just like that, the Dolphins are 7-3 going into the bye with Houston at home up next. This team could be 8-3 and sitting at No. 1 or No. 2 in the AFC in a couple weeks. I think it’s fine to be skeptical of them given the recent wins are against PIT/DET/CHI/CLE, but we’ll get a great sense of this team’s legitimacy when they play a six-game stretch after Houston of the 49ers, Chargers, Bills, Packers, Patriots, and Jets. Those first three are all on the road too.

But this offense is getting comfortable and expanded, and that could be a scary thing for the other AFC contenders.

Lions at Bears: Just Need a Field Goal, Fields

I must give the 2022 Bears credit. I’ve never been this interested to write about a 3-win Chicago team in November like I am with this team. They remain a 3-win team too, because despite these historic rushing numbers, this offense cannot set up a field goal when it matters most.

  • The 2022 Bears are the first team in NFL history to rush for at least 230 yards in five consecutive games.
  • Yet they are 1-4 in those games.
  • The 2022 Bears are the first team in NFL history to lose three consecutive games after scoring at least 29 points.
  • Justin Fields is the first quarterback in NFL history to rush for 140 yards in consecutive games, following up 178 last week with 147 rushing yards against Detroit.
  • Yet in both games, he just needed to set up a game-winning field goal and could not move the offense.

When Matt Eberflus sent away for an elite Chicago running game, he forgot to order the great defense too. Those were the two staples of great Chicago years in the past. They could run the ball and play defense. This one only runs the ball, but it can’t even seem to do that when only a field goal is needed.

But don’t put too much blame on the defense for allowing a go-ahead touchdown drive with 2:21 left. The Bears shouldn’t have been in that position after leading 24-10 in the fourth quarter. But Fields threw a horrific pick-six to Jeff Okudah that tied the game at 24:

To his credit, Fields made up for that one with a 67-yard touchdown run, but the Bears missed the extra point and that left the door open for Jared Goff and the Lions in a 30-24 game. The Bears actually had another chance to add to the lead at midfield, but they went three-and-out.

Even after Goff’s drive, Fields had plenty of time to set up a game-winning field goal. But on a day where he only passed for 167 yards, he wasn’t decisive enough in the two-minute drill and he ended up taking two sacks, including one on fourth-and-8 to effectively end the game.

You can praise the incredible rushing of Fields, but you can’t overlook that it isn’t winning games, and all the running seems to be taking away from the development of the passing game.

This offense is not normal. The Bears have just lost three games in a row where they rushed for at least 240 yards and scored at least 29 points each week. No other NFL team since 1950 has more than two such losses to this day, let alone in a three-game period.

Since 1950, NFL teams rushing for at least 240 yards and scoring at least 29 points are 509-13. But the 2022 Bears are now 1-3 when they do it.

Here’s one more record: 2022 Bears join the 1965 49ers and 1966 Giants as the only three teams in NFL history to lose three straight games where they scored at least 25 points and rushed for at least 100 yards. Given we know the Bears were at 29+ points and 240+ rushing yards every week, this is the worst streak of the group.

The Chicago Bears being the NFL franchise with the worst losing streak in history when scoring more than 28 points and running the hell out of the ball is a plot twist few could have imagined. But here we are.

Hurry-Up Finish

I think the early Sunday morning games are done this season (thank God), but here’s to finishing up a great Sunday with three quickies.

Broncos at Titans: The Most Predictable One-Score Game of Week 10

You had to know this game would be decided by 1-to-8 points. Denver is the only team to play nine close games this year, and it’s not like Russell Wilson would have it any other way.

Denver’s offense continues to waste one of the best defenses in the league this year. After building a 10-0 lead, Russell Wilson led his offense to zero points on six second-half drives. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill shook off a slow start after missing the last two games and got it done through the air (255 yards and two touchdowns) on a day where Derrick Henry was held to 53 yards on 19 carries. The Titans scored the final 17 points and clinched the game with a tipped interception off Wilson thrown out of fourth-down desperation in the final minute. Wilson was also sacked six times.

Wilson is now 3-3 this season when the Broncos allow no more than 17 points. Wilson was 44-3 in Seattle before he suffered his third loss in such a game (71-9-1 overall).

Jerry Jeudy was injured early, so it was another big loss for the Broncos on offense this season. But the Broncos finished 4-of-17 on third down. If Tannehill can manufacture 17 points with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine going for 119 yards and two touchdowns, what’s Wilson’s excuse for 10 points?

Texans at Giants: Still Can’t Stop the Run

The Giants had a bye and the Texans had a few extra days after playing last Thursday, but that didn’t stop Saquon Barkley from a predictable stat line of 152 rushing yards and a touchdown in a 24-16 win that was never really in doubt.

Daniel Jones also had one of the most efficient passing games of his career with 13-of-17 for 197 yards and two touchdowns. It’s technically another one-possession win for the Giants due to Houston kicking two late field goals while down two scores, but the Giants led wire-to-wire for 3.5 quarters.

Is anyone going to be impressed by knocking off the 1-win Texans? Of course not. But at least the Giants avoided a giant letdown after the bye.

Cardinals at Rams: Early Toilet Bowl

This is the last game in the article but the first recap I’m writing as I want to flush down the biggest turd quickly. Only on Saturday night did I see some blurb that Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray might be out for this game. I wasn’t even aware they had injuries this week as I do the meat of my injury article on Monday and Tuesday, and there was just nothing there. How does Stafford enter the concussion protocol on a Tuesday? Did he fall down steps or slip in the shower? That was weird.

It led to one of the early toilet bowls this season as the loser will certainly miss the playoffs after both made it last year. Sean McVay was 11-1 against the Cardinals, but there is no doubt Colt McCoy is a better backup quarterback than John Wolford.

Go right to the fourth quarter with the Rams trailing 17-10. Wolford air mails a high pass to Cooper Kupp, and the defensive back clips Kupp’s ankle on the way down, knocking him out of the game and potentially for much longer. I wouldn’t classify it as an intentionally dirty hit, but the poor throw helped lead to it. Kupp left the game with 3 catches for -1 yards, cementing Arizona’s legacy of being the only defense to have an answer for him in 2021-22. Four times they held him under 70 yards when no one else could. Just unfortunate as hell it came to an injury here. You don’t want to see a wide receiver having one of the all-time runs suffering an ankle injury.

But on the very next drive, McCoy converted a fourth-and-3 with a deep pass to Rondale Moore, who made a nice catch for 26 yards. Two plays later, James Conner was in the end zone again and the rout was on. Arizona eventually won 27-17.

The Rams are 3-6 and last place in the division. Stick a fork in them. We’ll have a new Super Bowl champion and a new NFC West champion this year.

Next week: I’ll probably have to pull the plug on my preseason pick of the Chargers winning the AFC West, but not before I give them one last chance in the rematch with the Chiefs on SNF.  Titans-Packers suddenly got interesting again this Thursday night. I hope the Eagles deliver on Monday night so we can talk about Matt Ryan and Jeff Saturday spoiling a 9-0 team’s season with a fourth-quarter comeback. The NFL coaching network is already so pissed with Saturday’s existence. This would be incredible stuff.

NFL Week 10 Predictions: Prove It Edition

The NFL’s 2022 regular season is already halfway over, and the schedule this week figures to have several games that could have a dramatic impact on how the second half of the year plays out. A lot of games where teams will either start making their turnaround, or games where it’s all about to fall apart.

Remember, just last year the Cardinals were 7-0, the Chiefs were 3-4, and the 49ers were 3-5 around this time of year. We know the directions they went after that.

I’ll share some thoughts on several games below, but first a list of articles I did during a busy week:

NFL Week 10 Predictions

The Atlanta series finale aired Thursday night on FX, and the Atlanta Falcons season finale was also airing on TNF. Maybe Marcus Mariota needs to sit on the bench if they can’t run a modern NFL offense with him. What a waste of some solid weapons and a weak opponent (Carolina).

SEA-TB: Geno Smith leads the NFL with seven games of 2+ TD passes while Tom Brady has just one. The oddsmakers have Geno O1.5 TDP at +100 and Brady at -146. Either the Tampa Bay defense is that much better than Seattle’s, or they think Brady found a new witch to fuel his voodoo and go on another run here. I’d love to see Seattle get to 7-3 in this one, but I just have my doubts. Blame the Rams for not pushing the stake through the heart last week. Then again, NFC South is an embarrassment.

JAX-KC: Love the prop picks for the Travis players here, Kelce and Etienne.

HOU-NYG: Giants might disappointment with reshaped OL after bye, but I’m still going against that Houston run defense and Saquon Barkley is a good one.

DET-CHI: Justin Fields was prolific as a runner last week. I think he changes it up and has a great passing game this week. He was 11-of-17 for over 200 yards in his lone start against the Lions last year and they’re still the bottom-ranked defense this year.

NO-PIT: I laid out in the links above why I love the Steelers to win this one with T.J. Watt back. Andy Dalton is 3-13 vs. Steelers. Never scored more than 21 points against them.

CLE-MIA: Multiple touchdowns for Nick Chubb and Tyreek Hill? It’s worth a small bet. Could be a fun shootout.

MIN-BUF: I said last week this could be a season-altering game. But it sounds like Josh Allen is healthy enough to start, so I am going to do what I always do with Kirk Cousins and the Vikings in a big game: fade them.

DEN-TEN: Really wanted to pick Denver, but I need to see something improved on offense first. Looks like Ryan Tannehill is back for the Titans too.

DAL-GB: A bit nervous about betting any ML/ATS here. Cowboys should win, but we’ve seen that story end in disappointment before. If Aaron Rodgers has one great game left in him this year, I can see him doing it against Mike McCarthy, but they’re just so shorthanded. Allen Lazard should have a good game though.

IND-LV: The game with the highest meme potential all season. I’m going to be betting everything from LV -16.5 to Colts winning outright to IND +4.5/LV ML parlay. Josh McDaniels has to be fired immediately if they lose this game to a guy with no NFL/NCAAF coaching experience who was tweeting this two weeks ago:

NFL Week 10 Predictions: Impending Disaster Edition

You think you know what’s going to happen next this NFL season? That’s cute, even if it’s completely impractical. I’m just going to rant about several games this week as I have no real theme to this week’s predictions. Kind of like how the 2021 season has no real rhythm or purpose to it.

The Dolphins still suck, right? Baltimore apparently didn’t get the memo. The Ravens made the Miami defense look all-world while the Dolphins won a game after Tua came off the bench to replace an injured starter. Isn’t it supposed to be the other way around? Tua gets injured and the backup saves the day? That whole game was ass backwards, but the Ravens really put on one of the worst team performances I’ve seen all season. The AFC North is as wide open as I can ever recall.

My full previews for this week: Saints-Titans, Chiefs-Raiders, Rams-49ers.

Before you start thinking this might be Tennessee’s year in the AFC, don’t discount the possibility of Trevor Siemian throwing three touchdowns to Taysom Hill this Sunday or some other weird shit to get the Saints (without Alvin Kamara) over the hump. God knows that team has been the hardest to figure out this year. I was talking about the Saints, but the Titans are up there too with that sentiment. Lose to the Jets, pound the Chiefs and Rams. Okay. Be a bit nervous about that offense without Derrick Henry after it averaged under 3.5 yards per play last week. The defense won that game in LA.

Favorites of more than 7 points were 26-1 SU this season coming into this past Sunday. They are 1-4 since after the Bills (at Jaguars), Cowboys (vs. Broncos), Rams (vs. Titans), and Ravens (at Dolphins) all lost. Your gut might be saying go all in on the Bills and Cowboys (and maybe Rams) rebounding to win, and go all in on the Jags returning to their losing ways as a 10.5-point underdog to the Colts. I get it, but what if Buffalo shits the bed again and the Jets really do have some Brady-like dink-and-dunker who sold his soul to the devil in Mike White? I’m a bit worried about the Bills after struggling with Miami and Jacksonville. As for the Cowboys, a game with Atlanta where Dan Quinn might forget which side he is on worries me. No Tyron Smith against Atlanta? What is this, 2017 all over again? Amari Cooper basically said he and CeeDee Lamb couldn’t run last week, which I said in this very blog spot could be a concern against Denver. I’m not sure how playing a game and practice gets you healthier, but hopefully they will be because Matt Ryan is playing quite well again. And we know the only reason Atlanta lost to Dallas last year was that absurd onside kick recovery. I’m definitely taking Atlanta to cover, but just remember the golden rule of NFL gambling: never bet on the Falcons to win. Another golden rule is to bet against Carson Wentz against a good team, but the Jaguars are not good. I think the Jonathan Taylor TD/Colts ML parlay pick is still safe this week.

Then we’re dealing with mounting injuries and COVID situations.

Seahawks-Packers was a marquee game on the schedule in April, but it’s lost some luster with the way this season has unfolded so far. Is Aaron Rodgers going to be totally fine after missing a week for COVID or will he pull a 2020 Cam Newton and implode in his first game back? Is Russell Wilson really ready for this one after being ahead of schedule on his recovery? I think I’ll be avoiding it.

I’ve been avoiding New England games all season. The Browns are back to D’Ernest Johnson at RB after COVID has taken out the rest of the backfield. The Patriots are gaining confidence too. Mac Jones might even start attacking Myles Garrett with a lead pipe in the parking lot to gain an advantage.

Kyler Murray is a game-time decision again this week. Would be nice to have more clarity on that one. Apparently it’s going to be P.J. Walker for the Panthers. But if it’s against Colt McCoy, could Carolina cover? I kind of love that pick because Kyler is 0-2 against the Panthers and was under 4.3 YPA (!) in both games the last two years. Maybe the Panthers just have a good feel for that Kliff-coached offense and now Sam Darnold is out of the picture for the offense with Christian McCaffrey back. Seems too good to be true for a Carolina cover, but I’m on that one in a week where I struggled to find underdogs I like.

Speaking of underdogs, is this the Mike Tomlin Special at home against 0-8 Detroit? The Steelers haven’t beaten anyone by more than 8 points in nearly 51 weeks. Chase Claypool is out. Ben Roethlisberger is a bit beat up and the Steelers just had that dramatic win on Monday night against Chicago. The offensive line was poor in that game. Jared Goff with a weak supporting cast at receiver doesn’t give me much confidence, but this feels like that classic trap game for the Steelers who have a golden gift with Baltimore’s Miami loss to move into first place in the division. I don’t think I’d put big money on Detroit winning, but the cover (or Steelers by 1-13 points) is a favorite bet of mine this week.

The Eagles are another team I’ve been avoiding, but it’s amazing how many quarterbacks (5-of-9) they have allowed to complete over 80% of their passes this season. You would think Teddy Bridgewater could do it here, but what is the impact of offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur likely being out from calling plays due to COVID? Denver overachieved in Dallas last week. I’m not sure they stack wins here, but I am picking Denver this week.

If I had two locks this week, it would be Tampa Bay beating a terrible Washington defense and the Vikings-Chargers game being decided by single digits. That leaves me with this parlay that I will do my best to hedge from the impending disaster that Week 10 could be.

Or maybe we got the big upset of the week out of the way early…