Tag: Week 3

NFL 2025 Week 3 Predictions: Nobody Knows Anything Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

With Week 3 in the NFL, you always have to make that crucial decision on which week of data to trust: Week 1 or Week 2. Sometimes a team plays great or plays like shit in both games, which makes it a little easier. But you could also have a team beat up on two terrible teams to help make them look better, and you could have a team that loses a pair of tough games to contenders.

At this point, nobody knows anything. I think that’s reflected well with so many small spreads this week and the fact that the NFC West is the only division with multiple 2-0 teams as this is going to be a competitive season across the board. At least until the QB injuries set in as that’s already getting out of hand with possibly 5 backups starting this wekeend.

But I honestly can’t remember a tougher week of picking games, which I’ll get into below.

This Week’s Articles

Patrick Mahomes Turns 30: The Best There Is, the Best There Was, the Best There Ever Will Be?

Patrick Mahomes Turns 30: The Best There Is, the Best There Was, the Best There Ever Will Be? – I had this planned for months for Mahomes’ 30th birthday, and bookmark this link as I plan to update it with his records and accolades as time goes on.

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 3: Injuries Are Sadly Piling Up Quickly to Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy – Latest QB rankings with an early admission that I’m getting sick of Jalen Hurts already

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 3 – How I’m betting Justin Jefferson vs. Ja’Marr Chase, Chiefs vs. Giants, and a parlay for Lions-Ravens

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 3

NFL Week 3 Predictions

Already took a loss on the spread Thursday night, and I expect a rough week as this is a tough schedule.

This is so difficult because I could be sold either way on the moneyline for basically every game except maybe Packers-Browns and Saints-Seahawks.

Could the Bucs slip up at home with a beat up offensive line as Tyrod Taylor gives the Jets an improved QB over Justin Fields’ no-show last week? Sure, it’s possible.

How will Mac Jones perform another week in place of Brock Purdy, or what about Marcus Mariota taking over for Jayden Daniels? I’m going with Pete Carroll to get the upset win for that reason as Geno has to play better than Monday night.

I know I like the under better in GB-CLE and KC-NYG than any ML/spread pick.

Steelers-Patriots? Beats me. My gut says New England, so that probably means Tomlin gets to 2-1. Vrabel isn’t Belichick when it comes to owning the Steelers.

Jake Browning deja vu? He already repeated his comeback win against Jacksonville from 2023 last week. Guess who else he did that to in 2023? The Vikings, who were also starting a backup QB that day (Mullens). It just feels right to bet against Carson Wentz too. Always has.

I like the Chargers because with the emergence of 3 quality WRs in that offense, that should be enough to beat an overrated Denver defense that doesn’t seem to shut down the good offenses. I do like J.K. Dobbins to score a TD against his former team though.

Feel good about Ravens prevailing as I just don’t trust the Detroit defense to slow them down Monday night. But it should be a good game for the over.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 3

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I don’t think I’m going to like this season very much. You know there are some shenanigans going on when the first 3-0 teams were the Steelers, Vikings, and Seahawks. None of those teams were favored to even make the playoffs this year.

The Chiefs got there too on Sunday night, but after winning their eighth one-score game during this 9-game winning streak, it doesn’t look like this will be anywhere close to the strongest Kansas City team yet. Might even be the complete opposite.

There are six teams who were in the playoffs last year, including both No. 1 seeds, that are sitting at 1-2: Dolphins, Ravens, Browns, Cowboys, Rams, and 49ers.

Big favorites continue to go down at alarming rates. On Sunday, the four teams who were favored by 6.5 points were 0-4 SU (Buccaneers, Browns, 49ers, and Raiders). There were 18 such losses all of last season and 14 in 2022. We’re already up to seven this season.

Things are just crazy right now, injuries are piling up for many teams, and it’s not like blown leads/comebacks are largely responsible for these results. There were only six games with a comeback opportunity in Week 3, and only two games had a fourth-quarter lead change.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

49ers at Rams: Game of the Week

I thought the Eagles had the worst blown lead in the fourth quarter by a team this season after what they did in each phase against the Falcons on Monday night. But the 49ers may have found a way to outdo it here.

First, Brock Purdy was fantastic in this game. He finished 22-of-30 for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns (all to Jauan Jennings), but that doesn’t account for 6 drops. Ronnie Bell should take a permanent seat on the bench with his Limas Sweed ass hands. Purdy even ran 10 times and looked as mobile as ever as he tried to get the job done for his offense in a game without Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel. His only real mistake was a strip-sack before halftime, but that was right after Trent Williams momentarily left the game with an injury, and it didn’t lead to any points for the Rams.

The short-yardage running game hurt them in the fourth quarter when Jordan Mason couldn’t convert a 3rd-and-short, causing the 49ers to settle for a field goal and 24-14 lead. Later, a holding penalty ruined a drive, but Jake Moody could have made a 55-yard field goal with 2:43 to effectively ice it as a 10-point game, but he missed it. I thought he gained some confidence last year with some big kicks in the playoffs, but this was a big miss in a season where everyone seems to be crushing it from deep.

Then the defense had its letdowns with Matthew Stafford, who didn’t have Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua, using Tutu Atwell for deep balls to quickly get in scoring range. A 50-yard pass to Atwell set up a Kyren Williams touchdown and it was 24-24 with 1:51 left.

Purdy again did his job on the next drive, but Bell had a horrible drop down the field that set up 3rd-and-10. The Rams forced a punt, and the special teams further contributed to the downfall with a 38-yard punt return by the Rams with 42 seconds left.

The 49ers somehow had three defensive penalties on one snap with the pass interference moving the ball halfway to the 25. You can basically run the clock down there, which the Rams did, and they kicked a 37-yard field goal with 0:02 seconds left to take a 27-24 lead. A shocking comeback and total failure by the 49ers in so many ways, and yet somehow still appropriate for what we’ve come to expect from a Kyle Shanahan team.

I must say the 49ers looked like they had something cooking on their lateral play to end things. Definitely one of the better attempts you’ll see at trying to go 70 yards in one play.

A loss would have buried the season for the Rams (1-2). This loss doesn’t bury the 49ers (1-2), but it could haunt them for seeding. Seattle getting off to a 3-0 start isn’t ideal either, but the teams will meet in Seattle on a Thursday night in Week 6 after the 49ers have some winnable home games with the Patriots and Cardinals.

But the 49ers absolutely wasted one of the best games Purdy will give them this year. The loss will cause others to ignore how well he did with all the injuries they had too. Just a rough day all around if you’re a 49ers fan.

Chiefs at Falcons: Old Hat

I think from 2018-22, the Kansas City Chiefs were the main attraction in the NFL. They played the most entertaining style of offense, and they were involved in the biggest and best games of this era. They were a spectacle to watch.

But the 2023-24 Chiefs? I can see why so many people have turned to hating them, and it’s not just sour grapes over losing big games to them. They’ve become annoying to watch in a Spygate-era Patriots way in that it seems like every game is close, they leave a lot of doubt on the field, and they seem like they still find a way to win these games.

It happened again Sunday night in Atlanta, and while the Chiefs (-3) still covered with the 22-17 win, it was the kind of game that will only fuel the doubters who want to see someone else win the Super Bowl this year.

For the third week in a row, Patrick Mahomes threw a braindead interception. This time it was in the end zone on a 17-play opening drive, so the over bettors were already pissed. The only explanation is Justin Simmons just has that Mahomes voodoo that Ty Law once had for Peyton Manning, because he did it to Mahomes again despite changing teams from Denver to Atlanta.

Fortunately, that was the only turnover the Chiefs had in this game as they couldn’t afford another. They even avoided the obligatory fumble for a change, and Mahomes did not take any sacks. I’m not sure what the snap counts were yet, but the Chiefs did start Wanya Morris at left tackle over rookie Kingsley Suamataia, who was benched in the fourth quarter last week.

However, Travis Kelce really is starting to look washed up as he had just 30 yards on 4 catches, and he hurt the team with a third-down drop in the fourth quarter when they tried to add to the small lead. Kelce is seeing more action in his commercials and new FX series than he does on the field these days.

You combine Kelce possibly falling off a cliff with the injuries to Hollywood Brown and running back Isiah Pacheco, and the Chiefs aren’t offering a whole lot on offense outside of Rashee Rice, who continues to look fantastic as the new No. 1 option. He had 12 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown, accounting for half of Mahomes’ 217 yards and the only gain longer than 17 yards for the offense on the night.

But the Chiefs keep trying to spread the wealth, get other people involved, and their short-yardage offense hasn’t been too impressive. For all the hype about their interior line, you’d think they would do a better job of just pounding it in there.

But the back-to-back three-and-out drives in the fourth quarter do look like an offense that just isn’t what it used to be. Kelce would have held onto that ball in the past. On a late 3rd-and-2, Mahomes looked like he had multiple options on crossing routes, but he chose Xavier Worthy, and the rookie just stopped running on the play to cause an ugly incompletion with 2:26 left. I don’t think JuJu would have done that two years ago, and I know Sammy Watkins wouldn’t have back in the day.

The offense kept giving Atlanta chances to answer with a touchdown the way Kirk Cousins delivered Monday night in Philadelphia. But despite getting three chances in the fourth quarter, Cousins couldn’t get the job done as the Falcons dealt with more pressure from Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, and some injured offensive linemen made it tougher as does Cousins’ lack of mobility. There was a 3rd-and-2 “scramble” in the game where any young, mobile quarterback would have picked it up, but that’s just not happening for Cousins at this stage of his career. But that play was a good example of why the stationary pocket passer is such a dying breed in the NFL.

The referees didn’t help Atlanta much either. Yep, the officials were back in the spotlight at the end of a Kansas City game, and it was more appropriate this time compared to last week against the Bengals. Down 22-17 with just over 4:00 left, Cousins tried to find tight end Kyle Pitts in the end zone, and the Chiefs got away with some obvious pass interference. No flag.

He arrived early, he hugged Pitts, and he didn’t try to play the ball. That should have been an easy call to make. Then on fourth down, I don’t think that one was interference, but some of course will say that because it’s the Chiefs and this is the weekly thing we do now. But again, that comes back to never blowing teams out and leaving this type of doubt.

Then when the Falcons got the ball back with 2:26 left, you saw the make-up calls in full effect from the refs. The Falcons got a phantom DPI flag on Trent McDuffie for 11 yards. Then there was a horse collar tackle penalty, which looked legitimate enough, and that was another 15 yards. So, the calls most certainly don’t always go to Kansas City’s benefit.

But that horse collar was the last time the Falcons moved the chains. I think they got caught up playing the clock with Mahomes on the other side, they wanted to score late as possible, and they forgot to call good plays that make use of Cousins’ abilities. They brought in Tyler Allgeier for a big 3rd-and-1 run, and the Chiefs stopped him for no gain. Neither team wanting to run the QB sneak is a problem in this situation.

The Falcons then tried another 4th-and-1 run with Bijan Robinson, but he was stuffed for a 3-yard loss with 51 seconds left. Ballgame. That’s four plays in a row where the Falcons didn’t bother to let Cousins throw anything more than a horizontal pass.

Mahomes then did a smart move on the first down by waiting several seconds before he finally took a knee. The other knees were much quicker, and he nearly injured himself on one, but he timed it just right to where the Chiefs didn’t have to punt the ball back.

The Chiefs have now won 9 straight games by a combined 54 points, an average margin of victory of 6.0 points per game. That’s the tiniest margin of victory among the 119 teams in NFL history who had a winning streak of at least 9 games.

It’s not like this is uncharted territory for the Chiefs. In 2020, they tied the NFL record with 7 straight wins by 1-to-8 points. They also won 10 games in a row that year by an average of just 8.9 points per game. Only the 1999 Colts with Peyton Manning (8.7) had a lower margin of victory for a double-digit game winning streak.

The Chiefs can take that record next if they beat the Chargers next week by a slim margin. That’s usually what they do to that team.

It’s usually what they do to everyone these days. But that run in 2020 with the close wins was answered with some playoff blowouts, including their 31-9 loss in Super Bowl 55. It also led to a 3-4 start in 2021 during some of the worst losses of the Mahomes era like 38-20 to Buffalo and 27-3 in Tennessee.

So, you do wonder if this team will hit some regression to the mean and start losing these close games or losing by bigger margins during this three-peat attempt. We have always talked about the Chiefs in the context of an elite offense, or in last year’s case, it was an elite defense. Through three games this year, they don’t particularly look elite on either side of the ball. In fact, they look a bit ordinary.

Still 3-0, but not the same spectacle as 2018-22. No longer must-see TV unless you’re into watching reruns of mediocre episodes of your favorite shows. Alas, with the way the rest of the league is playing to start this season, it still might be enough to make history in the end.

Ravens at Cowboys: Almost a Collapse

Is this what every big game in Jerry World is going to look like for Dallas now? The opponent piles up big plays and touchdowns, forcing Dak Prescott to just keep throwing for a ton of volume with no real shot at winning the game. It’s the third time in a row at home with the Packers in the playoffs, the Saints last week, and now the Ravens in this 28-25 final that was somehow a bigger blowout than that suggests, and still really close of a collapse for the Ravens.

Oh yes, I don’t think a win here absolves Baltimore that much for an 0-2 start. This game still reinforced some issues they have with holding leads as they lead the NFL in blown leads of multiple possessions since 2021. The Cowboys cut a 28-6 deficit into 28-25 and were just unfortunate that the defense couldn’t get them the ball back one more time.

The Ravens were explosive with big plays on the ground with Derrick Henry and through the air with Lamar Jackson completing 12 passes for 182 yards. But salting the game away was poorly done, Justin Tucker missed another easy field goal on a day where his new GOAT competition Brandon Aubrey nailed a 65-yard field goal, and you still question if the Ravens would ever dare use this strategy in January with 15 passes to 45 runs.

They absolutely should as I argued this offseason. But they have this obsession with turning Jackson into the passer he’s not and throwing the ball much more in those games when he’s clearly at his most comfortable in a game like this where he threw 15 passes and ran 14 times.

Jackson is now 21-1 against NFC opponents, because they just don’t know him the way his AFC foes (Chiefs, Steelers, Bills, etc.) do. It’s a unique challenge, and I’m not surprised the Cowboys failed it.

But it did get a little too close for comfort at the end there, and I’m not sure how Baltimore keeps letting this happen under John Harbaugh.

Chargers at Steelers: Felt More Like Ravens vs. Steelers

In 2011, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers faced Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers with Ben Roethlisberger struggling through a high-ankle sprain. Pittsburgh was a 3-point underdog, and Ben struggled with 3 interceptions in a 20-3 loss.

Fast forward to 2024, the second career meeting between Tomlin and Harbaugh, and the tables were turned. This time it was Justin Herbert coming in as a 3-point underdog on a high-ankle sprain against an elite defense. He ended up losing 20-10 and didn’t even finish the game.

It’s not a good formula for success, but incredibly, these quarterbacks started a combined 19-for-19 in this game, the best in any game since 1991. It was a ton of short stuff with Fields being safe and Herbert keeping that leg safe for as long as he could. Neither running game was getting it done against these tough defenses.

But in a 10-10 game in the third quarter, the floodgates opened up on the Chargers. Herbert tried to capitalize on Fields’ first turnover of the year after Bud Dupree came down with an interception that was tipped around several players. But Herbert was sacked, and he hurt himself on that one and couldn’t return to the game.

Keep in mind the Chargers already lost edge rusher Joey Bosa in this game. They’d later lose both offensive tackles (Rashawn Slater and rookie Joe Alt) as well. T.J. Watt was getting shut out by Alt, but once those floodgates opened in the third, the Chargers couldn’t stop it. Taylor Heinicke tried to finish the game for Herbert, but he took 3 sacks on 5 dropbacks (!) as the Steelers allowed minus-5 yards of offense in the entire second half.

Fields technically gets credit for a game-winning drive in this one to break the 10-10 tie early with Chris Boswell’s 38-yard field goal, but the Chargers sure did help that along with three penalties for 34 yards on third downs alone to extend the drive.

My hopes of seeing how Fields would perform in a game where a quarterback like Herbert could force him to score in the fourth quarter to win it were dashed when Herbert couldn’t go anymore. Frankly, they probably made a huge mistake in playing him at all this week since this was always a high possibility, and they have the Chiefs up next, a much more important divisional game with the Chiefs looking vulnerable too.

But Fields also put the game away with a 55-yard touchdown pass over the middle to Calvin Ausitn, who showed off his speed. It was the best game Fields played this year by far, and one of the best wins of his career with ease.

I’m still on board with thinking Russell Wilson should get a chance to start in this offense too, but the Steelers are seeing more of Fields each week and he is getting better. The points still aren’t really there, but it hasn’t mattered when you’re giving up 28 points in 3 games.

Eagles at Saints: Let Them Off the Hook

The dumbest team to win this week was definitely Philadelphia. It was evident early on that this was not going to be a high-scoring week for the Saints like the last few have been. Even after starting the game with a field goal, the Saints didn’t have a drive that gained more than 13 yards until the fourth quarter.

Incredibly, this game was still a 3-0 Saints lead going into the fourth quarter despite a total near 50. This is also because the Eagles kept passing up makeable field goals and failing on fourth down. Jalen Hurts had a frustrating game as he completed most of his passes for 311 yards, but he also had multiple turnovers, 4th-down failures, and took 4 sacks.

But it was a game without A.J. Brown that soon became a game without DeVonta Smith too after a dirty-looking hit, and Lane Johnson was also knocked out at right tackle.

But the Eagles did have Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 147 yards and two touchdowns. They also had tight end Dallas Goedert, who had a monster game with 10 catches for 170 yards. Goedert made the critical play on a 3rd-and-16 on the game-winning drive when he got free for 61 yards.

You had three Saints defenders run into each other on the play. A natural pick by the Eagles neutralized the first one, but then veteran corner Marshon Lattimore (No. 23) ran right into his teammate and that’s why Goedert was so wide open. It was like watching the early and mid-2010s Saints on defense.

The Saints are the only NFL team not to win a game after trailing in the fourth quarter since 2023. That was supposed to be a strength of bringing Derek Carr to New Orleans. He had a go-ahead touchdown pass to Chris Olave in this one with 2:03 left, but the Saints missed the crucial 2-point conversion that would have made it 15-7. Instead, the Eagles got the 8 points with Barkley scoring both with 1:01 left.

Carr still had time and a timeout to force overtime with a field goal, but similar to Hurts against Atlanta last week, he took a risk quickly and was intercepted to end the game at 15-12. After leading 15 straight scoring drives to begin 2024, Carr couldn’t even get the team to 15 points in this one.

It was Week 3 last year in Green Bay when the Saints blew a 17-0 lead and missed a clutch field goal that really destroyed their playoff hopes in the end. Let’s hope this game doesn’t set them on a similar path as this was a huge outcome in the NFC to get the Eagles to 2-1 while those teams like Dallas and San Francisco keep losing.

Texans at Vikings: Wiped the Flores with My MVP’s Offense

I guess all that’s left is for the Vikings to start 4-0 by beating up my Super Bowl pick (Packers) next week too. They already won three games in a row against teams I thought would beat them, especially the 49ers and Texans, and they’re only getting stronger after taking down Houston 34-7.

C.J. Stroud is usually very hard to intercept, but he had a pair in this game, he only led one touchdown drive, and he also lost 42 yards on 4 sacks. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores had them flustered, and I don’t think it would have made any difference if running back Joe Mixon was active.

Sam Darnold didn’t have all the big plays this week, but he was smart with the ball, effective, and he threw 4 touchdowns out of it. He’s holding the ball and still making good decisions. We’ll just have to see if he continues it into October or if he starts seeing ghosts again.

But between the schedule looking legit and the team controlling these games on their way to 3-0, I’m dumbfounded by this start. Just never seemed logical that a team that lost Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter would get better on both sides of the ball. Not to mention WR2 Jordan Addison has been out with an injury, and tight end T.J. Hockenson has yet to even play in 2024.

They could theoretically get better. But I’m still not ready to crown the Vikings as the new flash in the pan in the NFC. Probably should get on that Kevin O’Connell for Coach of the Year campaign though.

Broncos at Buccaneers: Not “Bo Picks” This Week

This felt like a trap game to me, so the only bet I had on it was for Bo Nix to throw a pick. He’s had multiple picks in both games, and you had to figure the Bucs would send some heat and get him to mess up in a game where he should have needed to score a fair amount to win.

But man, that was way off. The 0-2 Broncos went across country to pants the 2-0 Buccaneers in their building in a 26-7 final. Nix was in control early, he avoided the turnovers and sacks, and he may have led the Broncos in rushing once again if not for a backup (Badie) breaking a 43-yard run.

That’s an encouraging start. As for the Buccaneers, so much for the Baker Mayfield hype. After Aidan Hutchinson had 4.5 sacks of Mayfield for Detroit last week, Mayfield went down 7 times in this one as the Bucs are struggling up front. Mayfield completed 25 passes but for only 163 yards, which ties Joe Montana for the fewest yards ever in a game with exactly 25 completions. A little weird it came in a game against Denver as we just saw Denver set that record for the fewest yards in games with 26 completions (Nix in Week 1) and 27 completions (Russell Wilson in Week 1, 2023).

Maybe it’s just a Denver thing and it goes both ways. But definitely an upset I wasn’t ready for as the Bucs were just never a threat the whole game.

Bears at Colts: Comically Inept

I know Caleb Williams (2) and Anthony Richardson (6) came into this game with 8 starts between them as the youngest quarterbacks in the NFL. But I still found myself during the third quarter thinking of how this would have been Jay Cutler vs. Andrew Luck a decade ago, and that was just more interesting to me. Maybe these two are the future, but right now, they are raw as hell and I question how much help they’re getting from their play callers.

Both had multiple completions of 40-plus yards for the highlight tapes, but both missed easy throws and had multiple interceptions too. It’s a good thing for Richardson that Jonathan Taylor rushed for 110 yards and two scores to really put the game away. Williams ended up throwing the ball 52 times and gained 363 yards, but some of those yards were hollow like his Hail Mary completion to D.J. Moore before halftime that gained 44 yards but was stopped at the 1-yard line.

But the Bears again barely averaged 2.0 yards per carry, proving that the offensive line is dog shit. The Colts couldn’t stop the run at all in Weeks 1-2, but they had few problems in this one. Chicago’s play-calling in the red zone was also horrible, including a ridiculous sequence in the first half where they came away with no points.

Good on Williams to survive a game with this many throws and keep the sacks down to 4, but he’ll still have to do better than that. Still, I’m not sure Richardson is even capable of a game like this in the NFL. He’s throwing for 40 yards or giving you nothing with his arm right now.

Good on the Colts to see Laiatu Latu come up with a strip-sack in a big moment in the fourth quarter when Williams had the ball in a 14-9 game.

That’s why you draft someone like Latu the way Indy did in this offensive-driven class.

Lions at Cardinals: The Shootout That Wasn’t

I was really hoping for a shootout in this one, and it looked promising when both offenses marched right down the field for touchdowns. But there was very little after that as Kyler Murray struggled to throw for 100 yards until late in the second half when the Cardinals were still desperately down 20-10.

It could have been closer as the refs had a costly mistake at the 2-minute warning in the first half when it sure looked like the Cardinals produced a defensive return touchdown. But they tried to say the 2:00 warning hit, but it appeared the ball was snapped at 2:01. Huge turnaround there as the Lions turned that drive into a touchdown on a nifty designed lateral play from Amon-Ra St. Brown to Jahmyr Gibbs.

The Lions never scored the rest of the way, and it was just a matter of holding on as the Cardinals couldn’t run with James Conner, Trey McBride suffered a concussion, and Murray was floating a lot of bad passes to Marvin Harrison Jr. Just not an efficient offensive performance at all after the first two weeks were so good.

The Detroit defense looks improved this year, but it was still up to the offense to run out the clock in a 20-13 game. Goff found St. Brown on a third-and-12, then he iced the game with an 8-yard scramble.

But not many offensive fireworks to see here – keeping up the 2024 brand for the league.

Packers at Titans: Malik Willis Is Better Than Will Levis?

The revenge game is usually a tired narrative, but this time it really worked out. Not that Malik Willis should feel like the Titans did him dirty. He really struggled when he was with them, but in playing for Green Bay these last two weeks, he has done an incredible job of managing the game.

This week was even better than last as Willis passed for a career-high 202 yards on just 19 throws, and he ran for 73 yards and a touchdown. A true dual-threat performance. He also did it this week with much less help from his running backs on the ground unlike last week against the Colts.

To make things sweeter for Willis, he thrived while Will Levis continues to show that his version of “Big Dick Energy” is to play like there’s zero consequences for your actions just because you’re packing a hammer. Levis took 8 sacks and had 3 more turnovers as the Packers are getting splash plays galore to start this season under their new defensive coordinator.

With the hope that Jordan Love is close to returning, my Super Bowl pick of Green Bay is still looking decent. They know they have a viable backup option in a pinch with Willis, and we’ll see a return to more passing when Love gets back. The defense in the meantime just needs to keep this up as they’ve been very impressive in creating negative plays.

Giants at Browns: Please, Call More Plays Where Deshaun Watson Gets Sacked

Okay, the spread never should have been Browns -6.5, because this team is just not that good with the albatross that is Deshaun Watson at quarterback. He’s actually worse than Daniel Jones right now, and he was certainly worse in this game as he took a whopping 8 sacks.

The Giants fumbled the opening kickoff and gave up a short field touchdown to the Browns, but that Cleveland offense did almost nothing the entire rest of the game. Those fumbles were also the only thing keeping this from being a New York blowout as Danny Dimes did actually deliver on his end. He threw two touchdowns to rookie Malik Nabers, who looks very much like the real deal, and he cut down on sacks and turnovers in a big way this week.

I actually feel bad for Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski as he knows he is likely stuck for Watson for a couple more years. That’s assuming it doesn’t cost him his job. I wouldn’t blame him if he purposely called plays with minimal protection and exposed Watson to more hits in the hopes that he gets injured, and they can keep him off the field that way. The guy was literally just accused of rape once again in a new lawsuit. He doesn’t get any benefit of the doubt, and I don’t know how this team will get through a season if they have to keep playing him when Jameis Winston would obviously outperform him.

Dolphins at Seahawks: Not the Most Unlikely 3-0 Start

Sure, most people probably didn’t see the Seahawks starting 3-0 this year. But with the schedule of quarterbacks, it was very reasonable. They’ve drawn Bo Nix in his rookie debut, a New England passing game that doesn’t want to exist with Jacoby Brissett, and then a break this week with Skylar Thompson starting for an injured Tua Tagovailoa (concussion).

We know Geno Smith and his weapons are good enough to go 9-8. Mike Macdonald just had to improve the defense, and who knows. But we won’t really start to see the defense tested until Week 4 against Detroit.

But this game, it was a 24-3 laugher as the Dolphins were literally showing their ass on the field.

Boy, that stunk. Miami was 1-of-12 on third down, and Thompson took 5 sacks before leaving the game with an injury. It could be Tim Boyle time in Miami next week, or maybe Tyler Huntley who just signed. At what point do we ask if Mike McDaniel and his staff are doing something wrong with their quarterbacks if they’re this brittle that you have to start three in three games? I thought that was a historic outlier when they did it in 2022, but it might happen again here.

All the speed in the world doesn’t mean a damn thing with the wrong player at quarterback.

Panthers at Raiders: Bryce Young Was the Problem After All

Guess I should have bet the house on Andy Dalton after all. He was my No. 1 prop pick this week, I picked the Panthers (+6.5) to win outright, but even then I never expected this 36-22 outcome that completely disproves the idea that Bryce Young had no protection or weapons in Carolina.

The problem was the shortcomings of the quarterback. Similar to last year when Dalton started a game in place of Young for the Panthers, he threw for over 300 yards. But this time he did it much more efficiently, and before you say it was just the Raiders, check again how Maxx Crosby and company fared against Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson to start this season.

Dalton is now the only quarterback this season to throw for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in a game. Crazy, right? He got a career game out of Diontae Johnson with 122 yards and a touchdown. Even the running game showed up as Chuba Hubbard rushed for 114 yards.

The Panthers finally ended their 20-game streak of never taking a snap with a fourth-quarter lead. I don’t think Dalton can go too far with this team, but for one game against the Raiders, he was electric. About time we watch a veteran with more than a decade of experience just sling it on these defenses.

There’s almost none of that in the NFL right now, so I fully support Dalton starting more games while Young “sits and learns” from it all. But this game probably did nuke his trade value even more.

Next week: Cowboys-Giants on TNF? Oh, it’s really over for Dallas if they’re going to lose to Danny Dimes next. Saints-Falcons has some importance in the NFC South, Andy Dalton can stack wins against the Bengals, the Steelers can harass Anthony Richardson to start 4-0, the Vikings-Packers game could somehow be the Game of the Week if Jordan Love returns, and let’s just hope Justin Herbert can return for the Kansas City game. Bills-Ravens a big one on Sunday night I get to preview later this week. Another Monday night doubleheader (not a fan) too, and Seahawks-Lions definitely more interesting than Titans-Dolphins (no one cares).

NFL 2024 Week 3 Predictions: “Ravens Can’t Go 0-3, Can They?” Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I’m still up at 6 AM since I did my WNBA 2024 Playoff Preview, something I’d never imagined I would be doing, but here we are. It’s crazy to think they’re going to start the playoffs on an NFL Sunday, one that could be very good too.

I always enjoy Week 3 as some teams have given us wildly different data points in the first two games, and we have to figure out which one to believe in more. But the game I’m really interested in is Cowboys vs. Ravens as both teams could really use it after last week, but the Ravens need it even more to avoid starting 0-3.

Since 2002, 103 teams have started 0-3 and only the 2018 Texans (11-5) won more than 9 games and made the playoffs. One out of 103. That’s also 0-for-16 since the playoff expansion in 2020 and 0-for-10 since the 17th game was added in 2021. The Ravens better show up for that one after coming up short these first two weeks.

But can you trust anything this season with the way big-name injuries are already piling up? Quarterback injuries have me so confused on who to pick in GB-TEN and LAC-PIT this weekend. But the number of top receiving targets who have already been injured this season is crazy and not helping the offensive drought.

But hey, at least a 6-point favorite covered for the first time all season on Thursday night.

This Week’s Articles:

NFL 2024 Week 3 Predictions

The Jets looked very good on Thursday night. Before that game, favorites of 5.5+ points were 0-7-2 ATS this year. Let’s see if the big favorites can dominate this weekend.

Last week, I hedged on 6 games where I picked a different spread winner from the moneyline winner. That paid off as I was 6-0 ATS on those games. Not repeating that with this slate as I only did it twice, and that’s only because of an injury in one game.

I’m counting on the Browns to shit all over Daniel Jones. The Browns don’t have a takeaway yet this season, so let’s get some regression there.

I’m trusting Anthony Richardson to finally win a game he plays the majority of snaps in for the Colts. He’s 0-4 so far, but I’m banking on the Chicago offensive line being unable to give them a good running game against that poor run defense of the Colts.

Line keeps creeping to Minnesota, but I don’t care. Still trusting my Texans and Stroud this week.

Love the Saints to keep scoring a lot and I don’t think the Eagles keep up without A.J. Brown.

I really hope Justin Herbert can play in Pittsburgh, because I want to see what happens when a quarterback who can score points and actually put heat on Justin Fields to do anything in the fourth quarter. He’s had it easy these two games. But with Herbert on a high-ankle sprain, the Steelers might get a big break if he can’t move well. But Joe Alt is going to have his hands full with T.J. Watt. I’ll be watching this one closely.

Expecting Tampa Bay to make things miserable for Bo Nix again.

GB-TEN is the other annoying QB injury game this week. Is Jordan Love playing or not? I’m not exactly feeling a Malik Willis Revenge Game, but the Packers have been forcing turnovers, and Will Levis seems willing to try new creative ways to cough them up. I cautiously take the Packers here.

Going upset with Carolina, though really I think Andy Dalton’s passing overs and the game going over 40 (both teams score 20+) are the best bets there. Might be an actual passing fest between Dalton and Minshew as neither team can run. But look for Dalton to immediately improve the passing game after Bryce Young was benched. Not entirely sure why I’m taking them to win too but I do like +6.5 for the spread.

I don’t believe in Skylar Thompson, so it’s a chance for Mike Macdonald’s defense to eat up at home. Seahawks by 5+ I hope.

Not liking what I’m seeing out of Detroit so far, and that Arizona offense is fun as hell. Upset pick there but it should be a good game. Tight one in the 4Q. Possibly OT.

It’s not like we haven’t seen quarterbacks go into Dallas and light them up. This is on Lamar Jackson to play well. The season is almost teetering early here at 0-2. Something still feels off with the Dallas offense as they lost Tony Pollard and TE Jake Ferguson was injured in Week 1. Not much that’s reliable outside of CeeDee Lamb.

Is anyone not hurt in 49ers-Rams? Meh, Rams already look cooked with these injuries. Just give me the 49ers.

Preview link above for Chiefs-Falcons. Can be a good one. I think Mahomes throws a lot more this week without Pacheco.

Don’t like the way the Jaguars are playing this year. Bills seem to be pretty strong and can win in a variety of ways right now. More interested in the later game.

Did a preview on that one too in Cincy. I think a healthy Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase should lead to Burrow’s best game this year against a terrible defense. But I’m still trusting the Commanders to cover that big of a spread. Shrink the game with long drives again. Avoid those pesky turnovers the Bengals are usually good at getting.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 3

~ Scott ~ 17 Comments

Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is a pattern.

The NFL’s 2023 season hit a pivotal Week 3 that should start to separate the fakes from the competitors after a couple of interesting weeks. By Sunday’s end, a few things are emerging as clear:

  • The Chiefs and Bills are still contenders, but Miami has the best speed in the league and one of the only coaches with a brain.
  • The 49ers are still a cut above Dallas in the NFC, and we’ll see how the Eagles look Monday night in a game with Tampa Bay (!) that should produce just the 3rd team to start 3-0 this year, joining the Dolphins and 49ers.
  • The 2021 quarterback draft class is a major mess with Zach Wilson and Mac Jones dueling to a 15-10 finish, Justin Fields didn’t throw for 100 yards in a 41-10 loss in Kansas City, and even Trevor Lawrence is just 1-2 this year after the Jaguars looked bad in another loss to the Texans.

After Week 2 was so high scoring and close (12 games had a comeback opportunity), you had to expect some regression with more blowouts and lower scores, especially with an underwhelming schedule that had half the games with a team favored by a touchdown or better.

But three teams lost as a favorite of at least 7.5 points: Jaguars vs. Texans (+7.5), Ravens vs. Colts (+8.5), and Cowboys vs. Cardinals (+12.5). That hasn’t happened in one week since Week 10 of the 2021 season. There were only 7 such upsets all of last season.

There were also just 6 games with a comeback opportunity (MNF pending) and 3 games with a fourth-quarter lead change, but at least Chargers-Vikings lived up to expectations.

But we have to start with the game that presents something that hasn’t been done in nearly 60 years.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Broncos at Dolphins: Speed Kills Denver

It was always reasonable to expect Denver to regress on defense and improve on offense under Sean Payton this year, but Sweet Christ, 70-20?

Unless they were putting a jetpack on Justin Simmons and Frank Clark, who missed the game, and everyone else on the Denver defense, they weren’t catching these Miami speedsters on Sunday. The Broncos even caught a break with Jaylen Waddle out with a concussion.

We knew the Dolphins had the best offensive performance in Week 1 against the Chargers, but the hype train at least should have slowed down a bit after a closer to average game in New England with 24 points.

But on Sunday, the Dolphins made history in their home opener with 10 touchdowns on their 14 possessions. These were the only teams to score 70 points in NFL history before Sunday:

  • 1940 Bears at Redskins in NFL Championship Game (W 73-0): 7 rushing TDs, 3 interception return TDs, 1 passing TD
  • 1950 Rams vs. Colts (W 70-27): 5 passing TDs, 4 rushing TDs, 1 kick return TD
  • 1966 Redskins vs. Giants (W 72-41): 4 rushing TDs, 3 passing TDs, 1 fumble return TD, 1 punt return TD, 1 interception return TD, 1 FG
  • 2023 Dolphins vs. Broncos (W 70-20): 5 passing TDs, 5 rushing TDs

If you’re thinking what I’m thinking from this breakdown, then we have history here. The Dolphins just set the record for most offensive points in an NFL game with 70.

The 1940 Bears didn’t get to 73 without the defense scoring 3 TDs. The 1950 Rams had a kick return early in the game to help them get to 70. The 1966 Redskins also had 3 return TDs, and they decided to kick their field goal at the end while already leading 69-41.

The Dolphins were all offensive scores, and they got to 70 with 8:01 left to play. They even had a chance to tie the official record of 73 points with a late field goal but passed. While there were 2 drives that started inside the Denver 8, there was no shortage of yards in this performance either.

Miami’s 726 yards only trail the 1951 Rams, who had 735 yards against the New York Yanks in that infamous Friday game where Norm Van Brocklin passed for 554 yards. Third place is a Pittsburgh team that gained 683 yards (what Matt Canada calls September) against the Cardinals in 1958, so these are the only two 700-yard games in NFL history.

It was an incredible display of speed as Miami had 350 rushing yards and 376 net passing yards. Even backup quarterback Mike White threw a 68-yard touchdown pass in the game. Tua Tagovailoa was 23-of-26 for 309 yards and 4 touchdowns.

But the biggest surprises were the running backs. One thing that was lacking about Mike McDaniel’s offense last year was the running game, which you thought might be strong as he brought over the Shanahan system to Miami. But it rarely delivered, and it also was nothing special in LA in Week 1.

But this game unleashed Raheem Mostert and rookie Devon Achane. It was actually Achane who finished with 203 rushing yards in this one, but both backs scored 4 touchdowns, an incredible feat. Achane had 233 yards from scrimmage and 4 touchdowns. Mostert had 142 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns. That is a combined 375 yards and 8 touchdowns from the two running backs.

If you can name a better running back performance from a team in NFL history, I’d love to hear it. I used to think the gold standard was when Priest Holmes and Derrick Blaylock combined for 316 yards and 8 touchdowns for the 2004 Chiefs against Atlanta.

Was this the best offensive performance in NFL history? I think for purely scoring points, it would be hard to argue against the only offense to put in 70 points. Miami’s 10.22 yards per play is also the 3rd-best mark on record, only trailing the 1972 Jets (10.61) against the Colts in that classic Joe Namath-Johnny Unitas shootout, and the 2017 Chiefs (10.30) managed to do it in a losing effort against the Jets.

The only game I could really put above it is what the 2021 Bills did in the wild card round against the Patriots. They scored 47 points (2 XP failed) by scoring 7 touchdowns on their 7 drives. The 8th possession was just a kneeldown drive with the game decided. Given they did that in a playoff game where it was single-digit temperatures, and against a Belichick defense (the guy who held Miami with Waddle to 24 last week), I’d have to give 7-for-7 an edge. We cannot pretend Miami did not get stopped on a 4-and-out in their own territory in the 2nd quarter, and the offense went 3-and-out in the first possession after Tua exited. It wasn’t as perfect as what Buffalo did.

Go figure, that sets up a nice argument for Bills-Dolphins in Week 4.

But the speed and inability of Denver to keep up with those players was a sight to behold. We barely even acknowledged Denver, which got one of the best halves out of Russell Wilson, and they still trailed 35-13 for it. Brutal game for Denver to fall to 0-3 and basically become an afterthought at this point.

Hard to imagine this won’t be the peak of the season for Miami’s offense, but with so many big games left to come, they are going to be a big factor this year. I thought it’d be the Jets stepping up in the AFC East, but instead, it’s looking like Miami putting speed to the scheme of one of the only coaches with a working brain can deliver devastating, historic results like this.

Cowboys at Cardinals: Choke for Caleb Over?

You know, Mike McCarthy was fired in Green Bay after losing as a 13.5-point favorite against Arizona in 2018. I’m not saying it will happen again in Dallas, but man, this was a bad loss for a team that looked so good in the first two weeks.

You can’t blame Trevon Diggs going down in practice with a season-ending ACL injury for allowing 222 rushing yards, or Dak Prescott only leading one touchdown drive and having multiple 5-minute field goal drives.

This was just a bad performance by Dallas, and it fuels why people do not trust this team for the Super Bowl. On the other hand, it was a genuinely good performance by the Cardinals, who do not look like the worst team in football as many of us expected. The fact that they had a 4th-quarter lead in every game against the NFC East this year and look fairly competent on both sides of the ball is blowing my mind right now.

Joshua Dobbs actually had a good game here. He was 17-of-21 for 189 yards and a touchdown pass. He only took 2 sacks against that pass rush while rushing for 55 yards himself, including a 44-yard run.

We’ve seen several games this year already where a team failed in the 4-minute offense and had to give the ball back. The Cardinals did not blink when Dallas cut the lead to 21-16. They hit their biggest play of the game on the next snap from scrimmage for 69 yards, and Dobbs threw a touchdown to make it 28-16 with 7:22. The only complaint about that drive is it only took 2:11 off the clock.

That was an interesting part of this game. Arizona never had a drive that lasted longer than 4:17. Dallas had 6 drives that took at least 4:20 off the clock, and they came away with just 16 points on those drives. When you only have 8 possessions in the game and you waste so much of that time to get 16 points, it’s no wonder this ended up being a loss. Prescott’s interception with 3:00 left was the final nail in the coffin.

I have no idea how many games Arizona will win the rest of the year, but this team is nowhere near as bad as most expected. They even have a chance to get better as Dobbs gains experience.

Colts at Ravens: Gay Outshines Tucker

When these teams met in 2021, the Ravens came back from a 25-9 deficit in the fourth quarter to win in overtime in a game where Carson Wentz and Lamar Jackson both passed for over 400 yards. But the Colts would have won in regulation if Rodrigo Blankenship didn’t miss a 47-yard field goal, a miss that arguably cost the Colts (9-8) a playoff berth that year.

Consider this some payback. Colts kicker Matt Gay made NFL history by becoming the first kicker to make four field goals of 50-plus yards in a game (54, 53, 53, 53).

He upstaged the GOAT, Justin Tucker, in his own building. Tucker had a chance to add to his legacy with a 61-yard field goal to win the game at the buzzer, but while his kick was straight as usual, he was a little short this time.

The game went to overtime, but there were a lot of mistakes by both teams before and after that point. The Ravens were missing almost half their starters and they wasted a solid Lamar Jackson performance as he passed for 202 yards, and rushed for 101 yards and two scores.

The Colts were without Anthony Richardson (concussion), but Gardner Minshew was game with a ton of scrambling around. However, his Orlovsky moment in a 17-16 game seemed like it would doom the Colts when Minshew stepped on the back boundary line for a safety to give the Ravens a 19-16 lead with 2:03 left.

Those 3 seconds helped buy the Colts a key clock stoppage. While the Ravens put away Cincinnati in the 4-minute offense last week, they did not do it this time, going 3-and-out and giving Minshew a shot at redemption. Gay’s 53-yard field goal tied it at 19 with 57 seconds left.

Jackson gave Tucker a shot from 61, but there was a 10-yard sack during the drive that put the Ravens in a bind and made the attempt that long.

In overtime, first downs were hard to come by for both offenses. On a 4th-and-3 at the Indy 47, Jackson was unable to connect with Zay Flowers, turning the ball over at midfield with 3:21 left. Baltimore’s run defense showed some cracks, and Zack Moss got the call on the next 4 plays as Shane Steichen was content with setting up Gay for another long kick.

But from 53 yards out once again, Gay was good and delivered a surprising 22-19 win for the Colts, who technically jump ahead of Baltimore in the AFC standings for now with this win at 2-1.

Not sure anyone in Baltimore is going to panic after a loss like this with so many starters out, but the Colts should feel optimistic after this one. This is not the kind of game they win last year with Jeff Saturday.

Texans at Jaguars: The AFC South Circus Continues

The Titans tend to own the Texans. The Texans tend to own the Jaguars. The Jaguars own the Colts outside of Indy. This is the kind of circus that goes on in the AFC South, arguably the most unclear division race at this point.

I was nervous about Jacksonville going into the season, but I thought holding the Chiefs to 17 last week was at least a sign the defense would be okay and would lead an effort to get back on track by beating Houston.

Whoops. The Texans were up 17-0 in the first half, then even when the Jaguars looked to get back into it, they let a fullback return a pop-up kickoff 85 yards for a touchdown. Between that and the fumble return touchdown in Indy in Week 1, the Jaguars have allowed two of the weirdest, ugliest, least aware touchdowns of the 2023 season.

But whether this was just another embarrassing loss to Houston or something worse, the Jaguars should be worried. Like last week, Trevor Lawrence again struggled with his new connection to Calvin Ridley. The defense let C.J. Stroud complete 20-of-30 passes for 280 yards and 2 touchdowns while failing to sack him despite the Texans not having four offensive line starters again.

Maybe Stroud is going to be a good one, but the Jaguars have some questions to answer as they sit in last place of the division they were expected to win with relative ease.

Chargers at Vikings: Staying on Brand

It took some time to get there, but Chargers-Vikings was the back-and-forth shootout with multiple lead changes (and head-scratching decisions) that you would have expected from these teams.

You knew both teams would do their best to try losing the game, and they did not disappoint there. In the end, Minnesota’s close-game regression was too strong for Chargering.

But before we get there, let’s first go over how new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is not afraid to try different things with the Chargers. In Week 1, he had one of the most run-heavy attacks in the Justin Herbert era. They obviously dialed that back in Week 2 without Austin Ekeler, and because playing the Titans means more passing and less running.

But in this game, you thought the Chargers would get back to running and using Josh Kelley more like they did in Week 1 against Miami and attack a Minnesota team that was destroyed by D’Andre Swift and the Eagles.

It didn’t happen at all. Kelley had 11 carries for 12 yards and the Chargers had 15 runs for 30 yards. Instead, Herbert had the first 400-yard passing game of his career (405), and he was 40-of-47 passing, the highest completion percentage (85.1%) in a 40-completion game in NFL history. Ben Roethlisberger’s 2014 game against the Colts (40-for-49) is the only other 40-completion game where the quarterback had under 50 attempts.

These numbers don’t even include a trick play where Keenan Allen threw a 49-yard touchdown to Mike Williams. Allen had himself a day, catching 18-of-20 targets for 215 yards.

But after Allen’s touchdown pass gave the Chargers a 21-10 lead in the third quarter, the game got into that expected phase of each team trying to blow it.

The Chargers were up first. They stopped the Vikings but decided to decline a holding penalty that would have set up 3rd-and-16 out of field goal range. Why would Brandon Staley decline that? The Vikings went for 4th-and-6 at the LA 36, and sure enough Kirk Cousins found K.J. Osborn for a 36-yard touchdown.

Throw in an obligatory Mike Williams injury, a near strip-sack of Herbert, and there were the Vikings driving to regain the lead at 24-21 with 11:20 left after Justin Jefferson had his first touchdown of the season.

We’ve seen this movie before. Herbert is still quite good at getting the lead, and he did so after finding Allen on a 3rd-and-17 for 20 yards. But on the very next play, Herbert caught a break when his pass went through a defender’s hands to Josh Palmer for a 30-yard touchdown that proved to be the game winner with 8:05 left.

That is not a typo. In a game between the Vikings and Chargers, there were no points scored in the final 8:05. This is the kind of game Minnesota wins last year but not in 2023. The Vikings had a 1st-and-goal at the 3 and blew it. Cousins tried to throw to Jefferson on 4th-and-goal, but he was short of the end zone and it was an illegal shift anyway. There was a lot of contact too, so it could have been off-setting penalties and replay the down, but no flag on the Chargers.

The Vikings forced a stop that brought up 4th-and-1 at the LA 24 with 1:51 left. One yard wins the game but going for it there in a 4-point game would be quite ballsy when a touchdown can beat you. This is shades of the Patriots on 4th-and-2 against the Colts in 2009. At least this was a yard closer, but the Chargers were stuffed and turned it over on downs.

What ensued is why I tend to trust my defense at stopping Cousins with the game on the line and a long field. I don’t know if the Chargers took the short field for granted, or they were terrified of leaving time for Herbert, but they really acted like they had all the time in the world.

It took the Chargers 52 seconds to move the ball 4 yards. Then watching Jefferson crumble to the ground on a non-contact play was devastating. Fortunately, it looks to only be cramps, but boy did they come at the worst time for the offense. With 149 yards, Jefferson is the only player in NFL history to start a season with 3 straight games of 140-plus receiving yards.

After Cousins converted a fourth down to T.J. Hockenson with over 30 seconds left, he took forever to call the next play. A veteran should have that ready to go fast to maximize the opportunities left. Instead, the Vikings ran their next play with 12 seconds left, and it proved to be their final play.

Cousins’ pass for Hockenson was tipped and deflected to a Charger for a game-ending interception in the end zone. The Chargers finally made some legitimate stops even if it did come with the help of atrocious game management by the Vikings and an untimely cramp for the best receiver around.

But I guess not even Chargering can overcome regression from a historic season of close wins like the Vikings had last year.

Bears at Chiefs: Taylor Swift Could Lead a Team Better Than Matt Eberflus

I’m glad sanity won out, because the Bears should have been destroyed in this game, and that’s exactly what happened. It completes one of the worst weeks in Chicago franchise history after Justin Fields slammed the coaching for his robotic play, he tried to walk it back, the defensive coordinator resigned under suspicious circumstances, and the team facility was robbed of $100,000 in equipment.

Why would the team that lost 12 in a row (now 13) put up a good fight against the Chiefs at home with Travis Kelce trying to ball out with the most popular woman in the world cheering him on from the press box next to his mom?

And yet, it somehow was still shockingly awful for Chicago, which trailed 41-0 going into the fourth quarter and were fortunate that Patrick Mahomes and starters were pulled early. Andy Reid never had a 34-0 halftime lead before this game.

The Chiefs finally protected the ball in a game this year, and I’m not even considering Blaine Gabbert coming in and throwing 2 picks to steal a paycheck as proof of that. Mahomes was 24-of-33 for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had his ankle rolled into before halftime but thankfully seemed to avoid anything serious.

The only thing the Chiefs need to work on is getting right tackle Jawaan Taylor lined up right. He is a target now for the refs.

But Fields finished this game with 99 passing yards, 47 rushing yards, and he took 3 sacks with a pick and a touchdown pass in garbage time of the 41-10 loss. I thought he would do a lot more rushing if he was going to play by his “instincts” this week.

This is the kind of loss that gets someone fired, but the defensive coordinator already checked out before it. The Bears somehow have gotten worse from last year, and they are an underdog at home next week to a Denver team that just lost by 50 points.

I think I already have my answer on how much can a team improve that was the worst in the league at passing and allowing points. The Bears may be in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes after all.

Bills at Commanders: What the Howell Was That?

Every time they showed a highlight from this game it was Stefon Diggs left wide open or Sam Howell taking a sack or throwing a pick. No wonder Buffalo won 37-3. Diggs had 111 yards, Josh Allen only had one inconsequential turnover on a 3rd-and-20 (glorified punt), and the defense continues to be fantastic for Buffalo.

Only a pitiful field goal from 51 yards away with 46 seconds left avoided the shut out for Washington and Eric Bieniemy’s offense. Howell’s game was absurd with 4 interceptions and 9 sacks. That’s only the 5th such game on record with those totals:

  • Dan Darragh, 1969 Bills vs. Chiefs: 4 INT, 9 sacks (L 29-7)
  • Ron Jaworski, 1983 Eagles vs. Cardinals: 4 INT, 11 sacks (L31-7)
  • Paul McDonald, 1984 Browns vs. Chiefs: 4 INT, 11 sacks (L 10-6)
  • Warren Moon, 1985 Oilers vs. Cowboys: 4 INT, 12 sacks (L 17-10)
  • Sam Howell, 2023 Commanders vs. Bills: 4 INT, 9 sacks (L 37-3)

Just one of those days. But my main takeaway is that Buffalo is still one of the most balanced, best teams in the league. They’ll get to prove their AFC East superiority when they host the Dolphins next week after that 70-point stunner.

Saints at Packers: Another Epic Green Bay Comeback Not Starring Favre or Rodgers

Brett Favre never led a 17-point comeback win in his NFL career.

Aaron Rodgers started out 0-26 when trailing by multiple scores in the second half of a game before getting his first win on a Hail Mary in Detroit in 2015.

In Jordan Love’s first home start, he led a 17-point comeback in the fourth quarter against an elite defense in a game where he was missing his best running back (Aaron Jones), wide receiver (Christian Watson), and offensive lineman (David Bakhtiari).

It was just as impressive as it was avoidable for New Orleans, which punted on four straight drives after Derek Carr left with a shoulder injury in the third quarter. But it’s not like Carr was lighting up the Packers. The Saints got a 76-yard punt return touchdown from Rashid Shaheed to help build a 17-0 lead. They also got an interception from Love, his first of the season.

But the Packers kept coming with opportunities in the fourth quarter. Even after they blew a 4th-and-2 at the New Orleans 13 to start the final quarter, they got the ball right back after Jameis Winston was unable to move the offense. The Packers kicked a short field goal on the next drive, then drove 80 yards for a touchdown and 2-point conversion on the next one to make it 17-11 with 6:58 left.

The Saints went 3-and-out, then Love drove 80 yards again with big plays (24-yard scramble and 30-yard pass to backup receiver) for another touchdown, an 8-yard pass to Romeo Doubs with 2:56 left. Green Bay led 18-17.

Chris Olave seemed like he was going to personally put an end to this with a couple of catches for 38 yards. But once the Saints got to the Green Bay 32 at the 2-minute warning, they went very conservative, setting up a long field goal for an unproven kicker (Blake Grupe).

I have to believe this is a game the Saints win or at least take a late lead if they still had Wil Lutz at kicker. But Grupe was wide right on a 46-yard field goal with 1:05 left, and that was the ball game.

The Saints match the 2013-14 Seahawks with an 11th-straight game of not allowing more than 20 points, the longest streak to start in the salary cap era (1994). It is the longest streak in the NFL since the 1993-94 Browns (13 games). But it was still enough to lose this one. After Love failed to get a first down in a game-winning drive situation in Atlanta last week, he led scoring drives of 46, 80, and 80 yards in this quarter.

But again, I have to say either the presence of Carr at the end of the game or a better kicker like Lutz would have been enough for the Saints to win this game. Tough loss for the Saints when they had a shot at 3-0 on a day Atlanta lost.

But an exciting win for Green Bay. We have yet to see this offense in its full form this year, so better days should be on the way too.

Steelers at Raiders: It’s Gruesome That Someone So Handsome Should Throw That Pick

While no one would accuse the Steelers of looking great on offense Sunday night, it was great compared to Weeks 1-2. Kenny Pickett finally had a game with 2 touchdown passes. It only took him 15 starts to do it, but he ended that streak and even hit a deep ball to Calvin Austin for 72 yards that looked good. The Steelers finished with 333 yards, so the 400-yard streak is still intact for Matt Canada, but 23 points and no turnovers will help the Steelers win a lot of games this year as long as the defense plays like this.

T.J. Watt notched another 2 sacks and the secondary picked off Jimmy Garoppolo 3 times, including a few poor decisions and throws. The Raiders scored first before the Steelers ripped off the next 23 points, which was also surprising with the way Davante Adams (172 yards, 2 TDs) and Jakobi Meyers (85 yards) were open for most of the night.

The game might have even ended 23-7 if the refs didn’t interfere with an absurd roughing the passer call on Minkah Fitzpatrick to negate a sack that would have made it 3rd-and-16 halfway through the fourth quarter. The Raiders turned that into a touchdown, then got a 1-yard 2-point conversion after another penalty.

But down 23-15, the Raiders got into some trouble with a false start bringing up a 4th-and-6 at the Pittsburgh 30 with 3:15 left. Josh McDaniels wanted to kick the field goal and I have to agree there. Teams down 8 put so much emphasis on just the tie instead of the win, and I did not trust the offense to get a touchdown from there. Kick the field goal and use your 4 clock stoppages to get the ball back and drive for a winning touchdown.

They did that, but the Steelers were called for a leverage penalty, which is another random call that felt made up. But after facing a 4th-and-4 at the Pittsburgh 8 with 2:25 left, McDaniels opted for the 26-yard field goal. I don’t agree with that one, because he only needed 4 yards, he was much closer to a touchdown, and he was nearly a full minute shorter on time now.

The margin for error was so slim, because one first down by Pittsburgh and the Raiders would be practically screwed. Granted, you don’t trust the Pittsburgh offense to get a first down in that situation, but the chances aren’t bad when you blitz Pickett from the right and leave a wide-open receiver to his left on a 3rd-and-2 for a big 6 yards.

By the time the Raiders got the ball back, they needed to go 85 yards in 12 seconds. Garoppolo left no doubt as Levi Wallace came away with his 2nd pick of the night to end this one at 23-18.

The Steelers, who would be the No. 2 seed if the playoffs started today, get a game in Houston next, so there is a chance for a 3-1 start despite how ugly it’s been at times. The Raiders are basically in a season-ender game next with the Chargers with both teams at 1-2.

Last year, the Raiders seemed to forget there were two halves to games. This year, they seem to be playing with half an offense as the running game just isn’t there with Jacobs, and sometimes Garoppolo loses his mind and throws it to the other team no matter how well or poorly the protection held up.

Falcons at Lions: Meh Bowl

This 20-6 finish between NFC teams hoping to make the postseason was really disappointing. In the days of Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford, you counted on this matchup to be very close in the fourth quarter, and both teams could put up 20 points at least.

But the Falcons failed their first road test of the year by never finding the end zone. Bijan Robinson only rushed for 33 yards as the run game was shut down (20 carries for 44 yards). Desmond Ridder took 7 sacks as the Falcons had 183 total yards in the game.

The Lions were 4-for-14 on third down just like the Falcons, but at least rookie back Jahmyr Gibbs had 80 yards on the ground in his first big game replacing the injured David Montgomery.

But the fun battle between the top rookie backs did not materialize, and now you have to wonder if Miami rookie back Devon Achane will steal their thunder after his incredible game against Denver.

Panthers at Seahawks: Sensing a Pattern

If any team is sticking hard to its 2022 identity in 2023, it would be Seattle. This team is going to succeed as Geno Smith goes in his attempt to make up for a weak defense. Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and now Andy Dalton have all passed for over 300 yards and put up at least 27 points against the Seattle defense this year.

However, Dalton had 58 attempts in this one as Carolina’s running game was shut down and the Panthers had to play catch-up mode offense, never taking over possession with a lead smaller than 9 in the 4th quarter. Still, it is the 53rd loss in a row for the team when trailing in the 4th quarter.

The Seahawks kept settling for field goals (4 in the first half) before finally finding the end zone multiple times in the second half behind a good day for Kenneth Walker and Smith.

Frank Reich did get better play out of his offense with Dalton’s experience over rookie Bryce Young, but the Panthers are still 0-3 and might be looking at a 1-5 start at best in a few weeks.

Seattle’s identity is still probably good enough to stay within a game of .500 at best, but on Sunday, the Seahawks were better than Carolina and the Panthers did not help themselves with 13 penalties (many coming pre-snap).

Patriots at Jets: Same Old Story

For the 15th time in a row, the Patriots beat the Jets. It is the No. 1 thing you can still count on the Patriots to do right, and this time it was aided by the Aaron Rodgers injury. While Zach Wilson did not throw any interceptions in this one, he played almost too safe to avoid that, since we know a pick parade is one of the quickest ways to lose his starting job.

Play it safe long enough, lose a close game, and that will buy some time. But frankly, the Jets are not even looking like a team that may have been great anyway if Rodgers did not get injured. The running game is simply not there. The Jets had 22 runs for 38 yards in this game. The defense is also not overwhelmingly great. The Patriots missed a pair of field goals and did not have any turnovers.

Wilson was able to put together one late touchdown drive to make it interesting at 13-10, but then he was sacked in the end zone for a safety by Matt Judon to make it 15-10. On his next drive, he checked down on 4th-and-10 for a whopping 2-yard gain. But the Patriots failed to run out the clock again, so there was a Hail Mary attempt, and there was a shot at the game-winning score at the buzzer after a ball was deflected near a New York receiver before it hit the ground to end the game.

With the Chiefs up next, the Jets have 1-3 with a fluke win over Buffalo written all over them. But regardless of this outcome, I still think picking the Patriots to finish last in the AFC East was a good bet this year. How would I know Rodgers would tear his Achilles after 4 plays? But that injury and the way the Patriots beat the Jets so consistently should be Belichick’s saving grace from sinking to the bottom of the division he used to rule.

Titans at Browns: This Incredible Defense

Even on a day where Deshaun Watson played his best game yet for the Browns, he still managed to sneak in this homage to Aaron Brooks and the backwards pass:

But the headline we need to talk about is this Cleveland defense under new coordinator Jim Schwartz. This unit led by Myles Garrett is up there with the most impressive in the league through Week 3.

The Browns held the Titans to 15 carries for 26 yards on the ground. Ryan Tannehill barley hit 100 yards passing and took 5 sacks, including a horrible one before halftime without a timeout, killing the team’s chance for a field goal.

The Titans never turned the ball over but were still held to 3 points on 10 drives. The Titans had 6 first downs after the Browns allowed just 6 first downs to the Bengals and 9 to the Steelers. The 21 first downs allowed by the Browns through 3 games is tied with the 1999 Buccaneers for the second fewest since 1966. The only defense to do better was the 1970 Lions (19).

You can definitely question the offenses the Browns have played so far, but if this defense can be this nasty against an injured Baltimore team next week, first place in the AFC North going into the early bye (Week 5) at 3-1 is possible for this team.

It’s just too bad they won’t have Nick Chubb the rest of the year because you could see the impact of that loss as the running game only had 31 carries for 78 yards. Jerome Ford had 10 carries for 18 yards despite another touchdown. Some of that is the way Tennessee defends, but some of the passing success Watson finally had is also a result of the unique Titans.

But if this defense keeps things up, then the Browns might fill the role we thought the Jets with Aaron Rodgers would have this year in the AFC. They’d just be doing it with a quarterback who has an even lower approval rating from fans in general.

Next week: If you can look away from the last 5 games in Week 4 looking like trash on paper, the early afternoon should be great with an early Game of the Year candidate in Dolphins-Bills. No better time for that one with Miami coming off a historic performance.

NFL Week 3 Predictions: This Lineup Sucks Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

After a slow first week, Week 2 was much more compelling and offensively productive in the NFL. But as the title suggests, the Week 3 schedule looks pretty weak with no true standout game and a long list of injuries bringing down the quality of many games.

You know things are bad when there are 3 games on at 4:00 and the best one might be watching the Chiefs play the Bears after one of the worst weeks in Chicago franchise history.

Sunday could be so bad that you’ll actually be looking forward to Steelers-Raiders, hoping for yet another 3-point finish as 5-of-6 meetings between these teams have been.

Monday night could be the best part of the week, especially if the Rams are dangling an 0-3 start in Cincinnati’s face with the Joe Burrow injury situation up in the air.

This week’s articles:

NFL Week 3 Predictions

I had the 49ers winning big on Thursday night, which might just be the start of a week filled with blowouts as half the games have a team favored by a touchdown or more.

Going back to SNF in Week 1, I’m on a 17-2 SU and 11-5-3 ATS run. I’m always nervous about following up a great week because of regression and it’s still early in the year. Week 3 is arguably the hardest week to predict because you are trying to balance which data point to trust more (Week 1 or Week 2).

I wrote about my upset pick of Saints over Packers above, but I also like the Titans to force Cleveland into a passing game that Deshaun Watson is no longer cut out for. I also think the Rams pull it off Monday night, but that’s really a result of thinking we might see Jake Browning at quarterback for the Bengals.

I think the Lions-Falcons game is the one most likely to push this week. Definitely one of my favorite picks for games decided by 1-10 points, along with LAC-MIN and PIT-LV.

Very much looking forward to Vikings and Chargers upholding their brands and delivering some fireworks as one of them is starting 0-3. I favor Minnesota because I just think the pass defense stinks that bad from the Chargers, and am trusting Kirk Cousins at home with Jefferson finding the end zone for the first time this season.

I like the weather (wet field), Baltimore injuries, and Gardner Minshew mania to give the Colts a cover in Baltimore.

My favorite Steelers prediction is for Kenny Pickett to finally throw 2 TDs in a game and for Matt Canada to finally have a 400-yard offensive performance in his 38th try. But for the Steelers to lose because Josh McDaniels and Jimmy Garoppolo light up the defense. But that one should be tight.

I cautiously take the Eagles on MNF, thinking Baker Mayfield turns into a pumpkin this week against a real team even if the Eagles have not been that impressive yet.

I also like Denver to keep it close with Miami as Payton tries to avoid starting 0-3 and becoming irrelevant in a hurry.

Bills-Commanders feels like a wild game I’d stay away from betting on.

Bill Belichick catches a break with the Aaron Rodgers injury. Should be a 15th win in a row over Jets.

If the Chiefs lose to Chicago, that is the worst loss of Patrick Mahomes’ career. You have to beat a team that’s lost 12 in a row and sucks on both sides of the ball. Especially after the DC resigned and Justin Fields was throwing the coaching under the bus. But with him talking about instincts, I love his rushing props this week. I’d even make sure you had bets on 100+ yards rushing for him. Not much passing though. I’ll take the Chiefs to wake up and Mahomes to light up the team that passed him up in the draft for that Son of a Mitch.

I’m big on Carolina and Seattle going over 42 as I think Andy Dalton is an upgrade over what Bryce Young (4.2 YPA) was doing out there. Give me a Miles Sanders TD. Give me Thielen and Hurst over in yards. Give me points in that one.

Finally, I just want to mention that teams favored by double digits on the road failed to cover in 10 straight games before Dallas won 27-13 in Tennessee last year against Josh Dobbs. Now they get him as a 12.5-point road favorite with Arizona, which has led in the 4Q against Washington and the Giants this season. But I’m going with Dallas by 14+ in that one.

But after so much scoring and close games last week, I would caution to be on the lookout for more games like TNF. Blowouts, unders, not many touchdowns. Just a bad week we have to get through.

NFL Week 3 Predictions: The Truth Comes Out Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

Not to sound like John Oliver, but I have time for just a quick recap of the week.

After talking about the big point spreads in Weeks 1-2, we seem to have the opposite in Week 3. There are currently zero games with a spread higher than 6.5. This is largely due to the Justin Herbert (ribs) injury situation as that line has come down from -9 to -7 to -3.5 as I currently see it with Herbert being a legit game-time decision. So, we’ll just have to see what the final line is.

But this would be the only non-strike season since 1978 where Week 3 didn’t have a single game with a spread of 7+ points.

Just as Week 2 is one of the hardest weeks to predict in a season, Week 3 ranks right up there. Because now the task is which week do I put more trust in?

Are the Packers a terrible offense without Davante Adams like they were in Week 1 in Minnesota, or are they going to be okay like we saw in Week 2? Tough task in Tampa Bay where neither team is coming in with healthy skill players.

Are the Jaguars actually good this year and ready to roll a limited Herbert or rough up Chase Daniel? Or are they going to get shredded like the defense that gave up a 4 touchdown/300-yard game to Carson Wentz in Week 1?

Can the Falcons continue playing competitive football against one of the worst teams on their schedule, or will the Seahawks look more like the offense that moved the ball well in Week 1 instead of the offense that was shut out in Week 2?

Are things any different in Minnesota this year, or did they just do their usual “beat Green Bay and shit the bed on a Monday night” thing under Kirk Cousins? I have a lot riding on Amon-Ra St. Brown to deliver for the Lions tomorrow.

Finally, the big game of the week is Bills at Dolphins, but is Miami a 42-point dynamic offense, or is it more like the offense that had 27 points in seven quarters before Tyreek Hill exploded on Sunday against a Baltimore defense that has allowed five 400-yard passers since 2021? I really like the Bills this week, though safety Micah Hyde going on IR (neck) is not good timing.

Again, I’d say some more but I’m working on a side project on weekends. Here’s a fun Colts-Chiefs preview, the first meeting between these teams since 2019

Here are some other articles I did this week:

NFL Week 3 Predictions

Going against the Steelers the last two weeks has proven to be a smart move. That team could be 1-5 in a few weeks. With the pressure already mounting on Mike Tomlin, I don’t see how he doesn’t make a major change soon.

Does the table look better this week? I finally learned how you can save Excel cells as a picture without using the Snipping tool.

Should be an interesting day with all these small spreads. The truth is going to start coming out about these teams.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 3

~ Scott ~ 18 Comments

What a Sunday in the NFL for record-long field goal attempts, but there is only one Justin Tucker. You know some games were real shit when you lead with that, but we haven’t seen a ton of close finishes in 2021. Only 22 of the first 47 games have had a fourth-quarter comeback opportunity, including six on Sunday. That is down from 29 games through Week 3 of the 2020 season.

Did favorites have a better week? Not really as 6-9 ATS makes it 17-30 ATS (.362) through Week 3. Home teams were 7-8 SU too, so another losing record there as we watch home-field advantage disintegrate even with the return of crowds.

Maybe we are just having a real “changing of the guard” season after the four teams with the best records in the period of 2013-2020 are all 1-2 right now (Patriots, Chiefs, Seahawks, and Steelers). The Colts have slipped into the basement of the 0-3 teams with the Giants, Jets, Jaguars, and Lions. But don’t worry, Sunday’s Game of the Week should give Jim Irsay the courage to raise another banner.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Buccaneers at Rams: Stafford Delivers in Biggest Game of Career (Take One)

The reverse psychologist in me was hoping that Matthew Stafford and the Rams would take this big opportunity at home against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers to clinch the biggest win for any team in September. I think they did that with a 34-24 win that was not as close as the final score suggests as Stafford threw four touchdowns in a wire-to-wire win while Brady had a hollow 432-yard day. Brady is now 4-17 when his team allows 33-39 points, his least impressive range of high-scoring games, or the one where luck isn’t on his side for a change.

Unless Stafford is so unlucky that the Buccaneers slip to a losing record and this game doesn’t improve on his 8-68 record against winning teams, then this is the biggest win of his career to date. It’s the first time he will have beaten a winning team (I assume) by throwing four touchdowns. It’s the first time he will have beaten a winning team (I assume) by throwing for 300 yards without a giveaway.

In fact, this was a weird game in that it had zero turnovers and started with five punts as both teams looked a little nervous. But once the Rams settled down, they got into some fine play designs, Stafford was unstoppable on third down, Cooper Kupp is Cole Beasley if he turned face and had more talent, and DeSean Jackson went old-school with a 75-yard touchdown and making us nervous by slowly crossing the goal line. Neither team could run the ball, and you know that’s a fact when Brady (14 yards) led Tampa Bay in rushing. The Rams added some numbers in the second half with the lead, but the ground game was not the story here.

The fact is for a hyped-up game, there weren’t that many pivotal moments or memorable spots to talk about. If there is to be a rematch in the playoffs, it will be a matter of whether the Buccaneers, with their injury-ravaged secondary that seems to add a new injury each week, can keep up with these receivers. A sack and a shanked punt really put the Bucs in trouble in the third quarter, leading to a 31-14 lead by the Rams. Brady never touched the ball again with a deficit smaller than 17 points.

It was interesting to see him still in the game with 4:50 and a 34-17 deficit. Bill Belichick pulled Brady from a 38-17 blowout at the hands of the 2009 Saints in New Orleans with 5:26 to play in that one for the Patriots. This is the fourth time since 2019 that Brady was in the ballgame in the final five minutes with a deficit of 17-plus points. He had three such games from all of 2003-2018.

This now marks six times in 19 regular-season games with Tampa Bay where Brady has trailed by at least 17 points. He trailed by 17+ six times in his last four seasons with the Patriots combined (2016-19). He will visit the Patriots and Belichick next Sunday night, but the 10-game winning streak and 30-point streak are over after this one, which I always said was the biggest test of the regular season for Tampa barring an incredible run by Josh Allen when they host the Bills in Week 14.

But Stafford and the Rams passed their first big test of the season and take an early lead towards the No. 1 seed. However, the division games start next week and will be tough. Stafford in the “biggest game of his career” could be something that comes up three or more times this season. If you’re a fan of the Rams, you hope it’s a high number because that means they are likely winning these games.

Packers at 49ers: One-Minute Drills

What was looking like another blowout between these teams turned into one of the best finishes of Week 3. The 49ers used a double score around halftime to turn around a 17-0 deficit and make this a game. The Packers were up 24-21 with the ball late. They faced a fourth-and-4 at the San Francisco 20 with 2:43 left. Had the 49ers been out of timeouts, I would have said go for it. Let Aaron Rodgers end the game with one play as anything converted in bounds would run out the clock in that situation. Don’t kick a field goal and go up by six, inviting them to beat you on a late touchdown.

But the 49ers had four clock stoppages at that point. I think there’s a good chance Green Bay would have settled for the field goal anyway on that drive, so I do support the field goal in that case. Jimmy Garoppolo was shaky on the night, but he got good plays out of his top guys, including George Kittle for 39 yards on another big YAC play.

But after getting to the Green Bay 12 in the last minute, the 49ers needed to think about the clock. Green Bay was out of timeouts. You couldn’t leave Rodgers that much time, only needing a field goal. If I was the 49ers, I would have called a run on first down just to bring the clock under 30 seconds. But San Francisco was not into bleeding the clock. It snapped the ball with 12 seconds left on the play clock, and Kyle Juszczyk fought his way through contact for a 12-yard touchdown with 37 seconds left.

Again, you almost wish he would just go down at the 1 and they could score from there. But he scored, and the Packers had to be somewhat glad about that. Now Rodgers would get his chance. Worse, the kickoff to the end zone was a touchback, so that burned no more time off the clock and put the ball at the Green Bay 25. Why not a hard squib kick or something shorter to make them burn some time? I didn’t like that decision.

Rodgers was able to hit Davante Adams, who took a nasty shot to the head earlier in the quarter, for two plays worth 42 yards. He got the spike off in time and the Packers looked like they had practiced that situation well. Mason Crosby is a shaky kicker in these situations, but he’s no Minnesota kicker. He nailed the 51-yard field goal and the Packers jumped ahead of the 49ers in the standings at 2-1, finally winning a good game against this team even if we’re still not sure how good the 49ers will be this year.

As I said in my top 100 quarterbacks project, Rodgers and the Packers have improved in these clutch situations. Through 2014, he was 12-29 (.293) at 4QC/GWD opportunities, which would be one of the worst records in the league. Since 2015, he is 16-17-1 (.485), which would be the fourth-best career record among active starters (minimum 20 games).

This is the fourth time in Rodgers’ career that he led the Packers on a game-winning drive after taking over in the final 60 seconds. His first three were against the 2011 Giants (38-35 win), 2015 Lions (Richard Rodgers Hail Mary), and the 2016 Cowboys (playoff win).

It is the second one-minute drill in the NFL this season after Derek Carr led the Raiders to one against Baltimore in Week 1 to force overtime. Anymore, you really have to get the clock under 20 seconds if you hope to win after leaving the opponent in position to only need a field goal. It has just gotten too easy to move into field goal range and some kickers are too damn good from long distance these days.

This is an unofficial count of successful one-minute drills in the NFL in the last 40 years, but it’s the best I can do at 5:00 A.M. on a couple hours of sleep this weekend:

  • 1981-89: 30
  • 1990-99: 26
  • 2000-09: 36
  • 2010-21: 68

The Packers are very much alive again, though no more trips to Florida would probably be best.

Chargers at Chiefs: Ruh-Roh

A 1-2 start is certainly cause for concern for the Chiefs, who are now in last place in the AFC West thanks to the Broncos and Raiders as the lone 3-0 teams in the AFC. Even the Chargers are now 2-1 after this win, the biggest one yet in the young career of Justin Herbert, who was great with four touchdown passes in Arrowhead to get this 30-24 win.

I don’t feel like digging through every old tweet and article leading up to this season, but a lot of the things I’ve said about the Chiefs are coming true so far. They blew a fourth-quarter lead for the second week in a row after having none in their previous 29 games. The running game did step up with 100 yards from Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but he fumbled again. The Chiefs had four turnovers in this one including two more fumbles by the skill players inside the opponent 30. Just the preview for this game was accurate in pointing out how the Chargers limit Patrick Mahomes better than most. He had 260 yards on 44 attempts with two picks, which is a very non-Mahomes stat line even if you consider the first one was tipped off a Chief.

But even with the 14-0 deficit and four turnovers, the Chiefs were solid on third down and scored 24 points with Mahomes putting the team ahead 24-21 with 6:43 left. He kept the streak alive of leading in every game. But this defense is a massive sieve and was up to no good again on Sunday. Herbert answered almost immediately with a 43-yard pass to Mike Williams, the longest play of the game, to put the Chargers in range. After having two touchdown passes negated by penalty last week against Dallas, Herbert had another one wiped out here for an illegal shift. The Chargers settled for a game-tying field goal with 2:14 left.

Alright, piece of cake for Mahomes to go get a game-winning field goal, right? Wrong this week. On a third-and-8, he again tried a bit too hard to make something happen and threw a pick on a deep ball. That was equivalent to getting a 32-yard net punt, but it still wasn’t a good decision or play.

The Chargers had the ball at their own 41 with 1:42 left, tied 24-24. They could blow this, right? Wrong this week, though God knows they tried their best to blow it. Herbert moved the ball to the Kansas City 30 and the Chiefs used their second timeout at 54 seconds. While not ideal, the Chargers could have run the ball twice and kicked a ~45-yard field goal with seconds remaining for the win. That would at least deny Mahomes a chance in regulation. Instead, Brandon Staley’s team came up with two incompletions to stop the clock and save the Chiefs their final timeout. Then they were hit with a false start to make it 4th-and-9 and a 53-yard field goal attempt. That was brutal game management. Anthony Lynn would be proud.

But Staley showed some balls by keeping the offense out there and not settling for that long field goal without a great kicker on his side. Herbert threw and the Chiefs were flagged 15 yards for defensive pass interference on a legit call. That secondary is just too handsy at times. Incredibly, Herbert stuck with two more passes to Williams, including a 4-yard touchdown with 32 seconds left. The Chargers missed the extra point, because branding is important, and they led 30-24 with 32 seconds left.

Again, not exactly ideal as Mahomes had a timeout and a chance to win, but it was going to be hard needing a touchdown. He got to the Los Angeles 49 but could not make anything happen on the last three snaps. Some felt the Hail Mary could have been flagged for DPI on the Chargers, which would have been perfect for Chargers BINGO (lose on an untimed down after Hail Mary DPI), but it was not to be this time.

We are going to hear about the “Tampa Bay blueprint” to beat the Chiefs, but I don’t know what blueprint produces multiple fumbles or turnovers a week while still letting this team gain a bunch of yards and score 24-35 points. If you’re not going to blitz Mahomes and play a bunch of two-high safety to take away the big plays, the Chiefs are still producing against that. They just need to protect the ball better, which should be correctable. But this defense leaves little margin for error from the offense, and on Sunday, there were way too many errors.

The Chargers are now a good enough football team to take advantage of that. We’ll see if the Broncos and Raiders are too, and the Chiefs also have a rematch with the Bills coming up soon. If things don’t get better here, I just may be winning that $500 bet sooner than I thought.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1413670939259285507

Ravens at Lions: Justin Tucker Is One Bad Motherfu…

I guess we must thank Marquise Brown for his big drops and some weird running back rotations for this uninspired Baltimore performance that nearly resulted in a huge Detroit upset, but ultimately resulted in a field goal that can cement Justin Tucker as the baddest motherfvcker to ever play the kicker position.

The Lions were able to take a 17-16 lead with 1:04 left, and the defense had Lamar Jackson down bad on 4th-and-19 with 26 seconds left. But he made some magic happen with a 36-yard pass to Sammy Watkins. After a spike and incompletion, the Ravens turned things to Tucker in the dome.

It was in a 2013 game in Detroit when Tucker made a 61-yard game-winning field goal to help the Ravens to an 18-16 win. I had that at the time as the third-longest game-winning field goal in NFL history. Now Tucker has pushed himself down to fourth with a 66-yard field goal that not only won the game, but it is the longest field goal ever made in NFL history, beating Matt Prater’s record of 65 yards.

Incredibly, Prater, who used to play for the Lions, tried from 68 yards in Jacksonville on Sunday, missed, and it was returned for a touchdown before halftime. But Tucker was good enough to hit it straight and to the crossbar, where it took a fortunate bounce through for the win. An absolute stunner to end the game and the kind of historic field goal that deserves to belong to the best in the business.

By the time the shock in this one wears off, maybe we’ll figure out how the Ravens nearly went from a huge win over the Chiefs to blowing a game to the Lions.

Also, you have to feel bad for Lions fans for… well for many reasons. But of the four game-winning field goals of more than 60 yards in NFL history, three of them have come against the Lions, and two have come from the leg of Tucker.

Bad Afternoon for Rookie Quarterbacks

Early returns have not been good for the 2021 rookie quarterback class. Of the nine times a QB has finished with a QBR under 20.0 this season, six of them were rookies, including the bottom two games by Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson also has two games on the list to join Trevor Lawrence and Davis Mills (his Cleveland game off the bench).

It puts Denver’s 3-0 start into some perspective when the Broncos have feasted on Lawrence and Wilson in the first three weeks, including a 26-0 shutout of the Jets on Sunday. This time Wilson only took five sacks and threw two picks, which I guess is an improvement over Week 1 (six sacks) and Week 2 (four picks).

The Urban Meyer-Lawrence era had its first two-score lead on Sunday over heavily favored Arizona, but that evaporated quickly in the third quarter. It was always a bit of fool’s gold after a 68-yard field goal try was returned for a 109-yard touchdown to end the first half. Lawrence finished the day with four turnovers and contributed just a 3-yard run to the team’s only scoring drive after halftime, a 75-yard march where no pass was thrown. Technically, the game-winning score for Arizona late in the third quarter was the pick-six Lawrence forced on a flea flicker. I mean, who throws a pick-six on a flea flicker? A rookie trying too hard.

Mac Jones also tossed three picks, including a pick-six, against the Saints in a 28-13 home loss for the Patriots. I guess the Saints are destined to not play a normal, close game with reasonable passing yardage this year. Jameis Winston only finished with 128 yards, already matching in three weeks the total number of sub-130 yard passing games (two) Drew Brees had in games he didn’t leave early in 15 years with the Saints. Sean Payton’s idea on limiting Winston’s mistakes seems to be hiding him as much as possible. Even when Winston tried to throw a wild one in the end zone, it went for a touchdown on Sunday. That was a 9-yard drive too, taking advantage of a Jones pick. Man, if only Brees had games against the Packers and Patriots where the Saints were allowing so few points and getting multiple picks.

But no rookie had a rougher Sunday than the one we wanted to see so bad.

Bears at Browns: Cleveland Has Field Day on Fields’ Day

I am not sure if I need to apologize or eat crow for a coach who just saw him team get outgained 418 to 47 in yards, but maybe Matt Nagy had his reasons to not put Justin Fields out there as QB1 so soon. He had to do it on Sunday with Andy Dalton’s injury, but maybe Fields is not ready after taking nine sacks and helping the Bears finish with 1 net passing yard. Fields’ success rate was 5-for-32 on Sunday, an unbelievably bad debut in a 26-6 loss.

Now some expected caveats apply. It’s the Bears, it’s Nagy, we are used to him having bad offenses. But 418 to 47? That’s beyond the pale. The offensive line is also pure trash, but I cannot imagine this happening if Dalton was the quarterback. Nine sacks to 20 throws and three rushing attempts? That’s insane.

The Bears are only the 11th team since the 1970 merger to be outgained by at least 165 yards on the ground and at least 200 yards in the air in the same game. The last time this happened was when the Lions beat up the Packers (without Aaron Rodgers) on Thanksgiving in 2013.

My feeling on this topic is always consistent. It’s that a game like this should not ruin Fields. If he is destined to be a franchise quarterback, then this is just a big bump in the start of the road. You don’t ruin him in September of his first season. But if future games result in games like this, then yikes, they may need to pull him and sit him down.

Of course, it would help if the Bears actually had some semblance of a coaching staff that knows how to get productive offensive out of its roster. That has never been a strong suit for Nagy, and the returns have only been diminishing since his first season ended. The coach who ultimately fixes Fields in Chicago, assuming that happens, may not even be in the organization yet.

A few more games like Sunday’s and Nagy may not have an office in the building much longer. This was horrific.

Bengals at Steelers: I’ve Come to Talk with You Again

Much like last week against the Raiders, I never felt that the Steelers overlooked the Bengals. It didn’t matter that Cincinnati has not beaten them by more than 10 points since 1995, or that Zac Taylor had one road win in his career as head coach. They never thought they’d lose by 14-plus points at home for only the fifth time in Ben Roethlisberger’s career.

It’s not really an upset when you expect it as the Steelers continue their December decay while the Bengals are on the upswing. This is just where these teams are right now.

For anyone singling out Roethlisberger as the problem, and the idea that benching him for bums like Mason Rudolph or Dwyane Haskins will solve anything, just admit you’re not watching this team play. It’s okay. They’re the worst hate-watch I’ve had since NBC’s Revolution. That’s been my experience watching this team for the last three Sunday afternoons and I wouldn’t recommend it to anyone who wants to watch an NFL team capable of doing something good. They’ve had one good half in Buffalo and that was it.

The offense remains historically limited. The Steelers rushed for fewer than 90 yards for the 10th-straight game. Just one more and they can tie the 2002-03 Rams (11 games) for the post-World War II record. The Steelers drafting Najee Harris in the first round is like inviting a rich family to your house for dinner when all you can serve them is stale crackers and tap water in dirty, chipped glasses.

If someone had the energy or interest, they could create a pretty amusing montage of how often Harris is met right at the line (or behind it) by the defense due to a lack of blocking. He had one 20-yard run on Sunday and 20 yards on his other 13 carries combined. I’d say he showed his hands by catching 14-of-19 targets as Ben fell in love with the checkdowns, but Harris also ended the game with multiple drops as the Steelers stumbled badly to a 24-10 loss.

Maybe the most egregious play was when Roethlisberger dumped the ball to Harris almost immediately on a 4th-and-10 in the red zone in the fourth quarter. It lost a yard because it was so bad. What a sad time to see Ben turn into Alex Smith. In past years, he would have chucked that thing to the end zone and not care if it resulted in his third pick. But I guess he never thought things would be this bad, throwing to Ray-Ray McCloud and Cody White with Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster out injured while trying to mount a 14-point comeback against the lowly Bengals.

The Pittsburgh offense self-sabotaged itself all day with eight penalties, constantly putting themselves in poor down-and-distance situations. That should never happen at home. For about the first time since 2018, Roethlisberger took a few sacks because he held the ball too long. But that was an effort to try to make something happen. Too often the protection was poor, and he was hit quickly, like on his first pick. Other times he just looked old and slow, like on his second pick. This offense remains a complete mess and it is criminal in nature to put an old quarterback and a rookie back behind an offensive line this inexperienced and poor.

The defense also has its issues without T.J. Watt, Stephon Tuitt, and a couple more in the front seven. Joe Burrow was pressured one time in the game. Yes, the Cincinnati line allowed one pressure and no sacks, ending Pittsburgh’s record 75-game streak with a sack. Now that record was always asterisk-worthy since it ignores the multiple playoff games where this unit failed to get a sack in that time, but it was a shocker to see zero production against the Bengals.

Outside of one deep ball for a 34-yard touchdown before halftime, Burrow had no other completions of 20-plus yards in the game. He had a 17-yard touchdown to Tyler Boyd that was created by some of the worst tackling effort you’ll ever see from Melvin Ingram. But it’s not like the Bengals piled up 24 points with a younger, more athletic quarterback stretching the field. They just aren’t incapable of doing literally anything well like the Steelers, who even missed a 42-yard field goal on Sunday, are right now.

Ben will go into retirement after the season as the scapegoat, but unless they ever hire a real offensive coordinator from outside the organization and invest in a real starting quarterback, then Mike Tomlin is not going to see another winning season any time soon.

I don’t know how many more weeks I’ll go into detail recapping the latest poor performance, because we have pretty much seen 10 straight games of this.

Colts at Titans: Go for Two Up Seven

The Titans did something cool that coaches almost never do in the NFL: go for two after a touchdown that put you up seven. Head coach Mike Vrabel watched Houston do this to his Titans last year, but it didn’t work out for them. The Titans still won in overtime. This time, Vrabel’s team did it with 12:56 to play. That’s a bit earlier than I’d like to see it as I think the last five or six minutes is the sweet spot for it. But when you’re playing Carson Wentz on two bad ankles, why not? What’s he going to do, lead three field goal drives to beat you?

The Titans converted with a Derrick Henry run to lead 22-13. The Colts answered with a field goal to make it 22-16. The Titans had another long drive for a field goal to make it 25-16 with 2:58 left, which puts the Colts in miracle territory down two possessions. The Colts missed a 51-yard field goal with 57 seconds left and the game was over.

But had the Titans, who have had their share of kicking problems, gone for the extra point and led 21-13, then it easily could have been 24-16 when the Colts got the ball back at 2:58. That’s still a reasonable time – with a good quarterback that is – to tie the game and go to overtime. But at 25-16, you’re pretty much screwed.

The misconception people tend to have here is that the “extra information” of being down nine is going to drastically change how the team approaches things. Except this is the NFL and most coaches are basic bitches. It didn’t change a thing. The Colts moved at the pace you would expect them to when trailing in the fourth quarter, and they didn’t go to the real hurry-up or no-huddle offense until the final three minutes told them they were screwed.

Vrabel had every excuse to be a meathead and failure of a coach, coasting on his past connection to Bill Belichick, but he has been ahead of the pack in trying different things to close out tight games. I applaud him for that.

NFL Week 3 Predictions: Beating the Chiefs Still Hard, But Getting Easier?

~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

Week 3 may have gotten off to a weak start with Panthers-Texans, but the NFL is really in danger of blowing its regular season wad before October. We may have just had the AFC Game of the Year with Chiefs-Ravens last Sunday night, and we could have the NFC Game of the Year on Sunday with Buccaneers at Rams, the biggest game of Matthew Stafford’s career as I covered on Friday in a mini preview.

I’ve also already done previews for Falcons-Giants, Packers-49ers, and Eagles-Cowboys this week.

But the other game I want to touch on in detail this week is Chargers at Chiefs as it has a chance to really crank up the drama in the AFC. The Chargers are a 7-point road underdog, but homefield still looks pretty weak and division games can always be a surprise despite the two teams knowing each other so well.

Chargers at Chiefs (-7)

The phrase “It’s only two games” is something I have to keep reminding myself here, but we are now on a 13-game stretch where the Chiefs have only managed to beat one team (Buffalo, 38-24) by more than six points. Patrick Mahomes has been stellar throughout this stretch, but the Chiefs are looking a lot like Peyton Manning’s old Colts teams where the passing offense is covering up the many flaws on the team while still winning most of the (close) games.

But last week was not a win in Baltimore after the Chiefs blew an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter as Lamar Jackson ran wild and took advantage of two turnovers from the offense, including an inexcusable first fumble by running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire late in the game. It was the worst time yet for the “Obligatory Chiefs Fumble” as I used to call it in my keys to beating the Chiefs before I turned that into table form in January. This is now the 11th loss for Mahomes and the common trends are that the opponent better be a playoff team capable of piling up yards and points to beat him, and it certainly helps to deny him the ball late as Baltimore’s fourth-down conversion run did after the CEH fumble.

Now enter the division rival Chargers, who are 1-1 and lost a close one to Dallas that had a lot more offense than the final score (20-17) suggests. In fact, the Chargers are leading the NFL at 49.38 yards per drive while the Chiefs are No. 3 at 45.65 yards per drive. With these offenses having only 16-17 drives on the season between them, the two lowest amounts in the league, this could be a game that goes under the 54.5 Vegas total due to a lack of possessions with the teams going on long drives. The Chiefs are still the more explosive offense, but the Chargers are averaging a whopping 9.1 plays per drive this season. The next closest team is at 7.3 plays.

Oh yeah, these defenses aren’t stopping much either. The Chiefs are 31st in both yards per drive and points per drive to start the season. They have yet to stop anyone in the red zone from scoring a touchdown after being the worst red zone defense in 2020 too. The Chargers are 27th in yards per drive allowed, but at least they’re 15th in points.

I know this is Brandon Staley’s first season with the team and some other important things have changed from past years with the Chargers. But the truth is Mahomes has some of his worst stats against this team. Mahomes averages 231.4 passing yards per game against the Chargers, his lowest against any team he’s played (even including the teams he’s played once). Mahomes only has three games he’s finished in his career without passing for 200 yards and two of them came against the Chargers in 2019. In the five matchups with the Chargers, Mahomes has never won by more than 10 points, he only completes 61.2% of his passes, and he is barely over 7.0 YPA.

Baltimore finally wised up last week and only blitzed Mahomes four times. This is the way to do it for most teams. Don’t blitz and get your four rushers to play their asses off and chase him around. Joey Bosa has to deliver in this matchup for the Chargers. In the past, the Chargers have never blitzed Mahomes more than five times. They haven’t even done it four times in the last four matchups. Mahomes has 16 regular season games where he failed to gain a first down on at least 36% of his passes. Five of those 16 games are against the Chargers. Again, different coaching staff and some different players — safety Derwin James being back is a big plus — but the Chargers can say they defend Mahomes better than most.

In his first NFL start last year, Justin Herbert took Mahomes to overtime and lost 23-20 in a game with nearly 900 yards but not many points due to the long drives and struggles that Mahomes had in the first three quarters with the pass defense. The saving play that day was a 21-yard scramble by Mahomes on 3rd-and-20 in the final minutes. Herbert is better now and has rarely missed this season. He has been feasting on third down himself, especially on third-and-long, so this could be a really tough matchup for a KC defense that looks lost right now. Sure, the 1 TD to 3 INT ratio looks great for the defense, but I’d be far more concerned with the 72.2% completions and whopping 10.4 YPA allowed. The Chiefs only have three sacks too.

Kansas City is the sixth team in NFL history to start a season by allowing at least 29 points and 450 yards of offense in each of the first two games. The 1994 Patriots, 2016 Raiders, and 2017 Saints still made the playoffs, but they didn’t last very long.

As for the offense, again, I have to remind myself that it’s only been two games. But the revamped offensive line that was supposed to be the biggest addition to the roster this season? I’m not that impressed. Mahomes’ pass protection does not look any better than usual, and pressure on him drew a late sack in Cleveland that could have been costly, and he should have eaten the sack on third-and-12 in Baltimore instead of forcing that pick in the third quarter, about his only mistake so far this season. But the running game is not going anywhere behind this new line so far. The lone run for 10+ yards this year belongs to WR Tyreek Hill. Mecole Hardman also doesn’t look ready to step up as the new WR2 in replacing Sammy Watkins. It was Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle who came up with the big touchdowns in Baltimore. At least you can say they’re deep at receiver.

But the passing offense is going to be fine for the Chiefs. I’m just going to be worried that it’s the only thing this team is great at. Even in Week 1, all the Browns needed was one more drive to win the game. Baker Mayfield was intercepted. Lamar didn’t screw up this past week. Herbert may not screw up this week if given the chance.

With the way the Chiefs have been playing over the last 13 games, it’s hard not to see Los Angeles having a chance late. I’m going to hedge on this one with the Chargers covering. I don’t have it in me yet to pick them to hand Mahomes the third losing streak of his career, but if that does happen, then the AFC race is wide open again.

Final: Chiefs 29, Chargers 24

NFL Week 3 Predictions

I got a bit caught up on a stat on Thursday where QBs making their first start since 2001 were 15-3 ATS as an underdog of 8-9 points. I didn’t think the Texans would be that painfully conservative with Davis Mills at quarterback. Oh well.

Some gambling things I really like this week (last week: 4-for-10):

Courtland Sutton has the third-most receiving yards (177) without a touchdown this season. I like him to score his first (plus Broncos ML) since 2019 against the lowly Jets.

Kenny Golladay was screaming at Jason Garrett last week and hasn’t scored a TD yet this season. I like him to get one this week against an Atlanta defense that has already allowed five scores to WRs.

TB-LAR: McVay has gone pass crazy against the Bucs the last two years. Then with Antonio Brown testing positive for COVID, I think this is a Chris Godwin week. I like the over in receiving yards for Cooper Kupp (85.5), Robert Woods (63.5), and Godwin (71.5).

Other TD scorers I like: Justin Fields vs. CLE, Ty’Son Williams vs. DET, Miles Sanders vs. DAL

Upset pick: Justin Jefferson TD/Vikings ML (+270)