Not to sound like John Oliver, but I have time for just a quick recap of the week.
After talking about the big point spreads in Weeks 1-2, we seem to have the opposite in Week 3. There are currently zero games with a spread higher than 6.5. This is largely due to the Justin Herbert (ribs) injury situation as that line has come down from -9 to -7 to -3.5 as I currently see it with Herbert being a legit game-time decision. So, we’ll just have to see what the final line is.
But this would be the only non-strike season since 1978 where Week 3 didn’t have a single game with a spread of 7+ points.
Just as Week 2 is one of the hardest weeks to predict in a season, Week 3 ranks right up there. Because now the task is which week do I put more trust in?
Are the Packers a terrible offense without Davante Adams like they were in Week 1 in Minnesota, or are they going to be okay like we saw in Week 2? Tough task in Tampa Bay where neither team is coming in with healthy skill players.
Are the Jaguars actually good this year and ready to roll a limited Herbert or rough up Chase Daniel? Or are they going to get shredded like the defense that gave up a 4 touchdown/300-yard game to Carson Wentz in Week 1?
Can the Falcons continue playing competitive football against one of the worst teams on their schedule, or will the Seahawks look more like the offense that moved the ball well in Week 1 instead of the offense that was shut out in Week 2?
Are things any different in Minnesota this year, or did they just do their usual “beat Green Bay and shit the bed on a Monday night” thing under Kirk Cousins? I have a lot riding on Amon-Ra St. Brown to deliver for the Lions tomorrow.
Finally, the big game of the week is Bills at Dolphins, but is Miami a 42-point dynamic offense, or is it more like the offense that had 27 points in seven quarters before Tyreek Hill exploded on Sunday against a Baltimore defense that has allowed five 400-yard passers since 2021? I really like the Bills this week, though safety Micah Hyde going on IR (neck) is not good timing.
Again, I’d say some more but I’m working on a side project on weekends. Here’s a fun Colts-Chiefs preview, the first meeting between these teams since 2019
Here are some other articles I did this week:
- Aaron Rodgers’ bad history in Tampa
- Previews: Colts-Chiefs, Raiders-Titans
- Previews: Bills-Dolphins, Ravens-Patriots, Bengals-Jets
- Week 3 Upset: Texans (+3) over Bears and I love under 40.5 points here
- MVP Race after Week 2
- MNF Cowboys vs. Giants Props and Winner Pick
- Week 3 Player Props
- Week 3 NFL DFS Picks
NFL Week 3 Predictions
Going against the Steelers the last two weeks has proven to be a smart move. That team could be 1-5 in a few weeks. With the pressure already mounting on Mike Tomlin, I don’t see how he doesn’t make a major change soon.
Does the table look better this week? I finally learned how you can save Excel cells as a picture without using the Snipping tool.
Should be an interesting day with all these small spreads. The truth is going to start coming out about these teams.