Tag: Week 7

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

With the way Week 7 started with Steelers-Bengals, you might think the week was set up for great drama and shootouts. Instead, we got the least dramatic week of 2025 with the most dramatic ending that came out of nowhere between the Giants and Broncos.

We only had six games with a comeback opportunity in Week 7 (5 on Sunday), and only two games had a fourth-quarter lead change. But what a few changes it was in Denver.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Giants at Broncos: Comeback of the Year

I thought the Broncos had their improbable comeback in Philadelphia when they were down 17-3 going into the fourth quarter and won 21-17. But they outdid themselves this time in one of the wildest fourth-quarter finishes in NFL history.

The Broncos scored 33 points in the fourth quarter alone after trailing 19-0 to start the quarter. That’s a record for points scored by a team who was shutout for 45 minutes. Not only did the Broncos make a 19-point comeback, but they still allowed two touchdowns in the quarter, falling behind 26-8 with 10:14 left and then again 32-30 with 0:37 left. Obviously, the missed extra point doomed the Giants in the end.

Funny how a couple of plays that should have benefitted the Giants actually hurt them late too. By getting a controversial defensive pass interference penalty and a replay showing Jaxson Dart scored from the 1-yard line on his first-down run, the Giants covered those final 40 yards in 12 seconds. That’s where you’d actually like to need 2-3 plays to score the game-winning touchdown, leaving Denver little time to answer with no timeouts.

But this was wild stuff as Bo Nix threw two touchdowns and rushed for two more in the quarter, another thing no player had ever done before in NFL history. Each team scored a touchdown off a deflected pass as well in that 46-point quarter.

Dart had a fantastic game on the road against this defense without Malik Nabers. His only big mistake was that interception with 4:47 left after Denver just scored a touchdown to make it 26-16. That set up the Broncos to become the 30th team since 2001 to win a game after manufacturing a multi-score comeback in the final 5:00.

NFL Comebacks Down Multiple Scores Final 5:00

What separates this table from a regular game where a team wins after trailing by two scores in the final 5:00 is the time they had at the start of the comeback. It’s not as uncommon to see a team get the ball back with 10 minutes, score with 4:30, then use that time to get the ball back and win. This way, you have to actually complete the whole drive, score, get the ball back, score again, then finish as you have to finish for the win all within 5:00.

What makes Denver stand out on this table is that it’s only the seventh team that trailed by 3 possessions in the quarter, and the 19-point maximum deficit is the second largest of the 30 games. The only one that tops it is the 2003 Colts’ comeback in Tampa Bay, which is still the gold standard for improbable comebacks in NFL history.

But this one will rank up there, and it sure puts a dent in the Giants’ attempt to get to 3-4 and go on a run with Dart. It keeps the Broncos (5-2) on top of the AFC West with an easier remaining schedule than Kansas City.

At the same time, Sean Payton’s team has already lost to the Colts and Chargers, his offense has shit the bed for 6-of-8 quarters against the Eagles and Giants, and I can’t see this type of comeback happening again for them this year.

Better question is why is Denver down multiple scores so often in the fourth quarter with that defense on the other side? We won’t see them play the Chiefs until Week 11.

Eagles at Vikings: What’s the Opposite of a Revenge Game?

The Eagles got a great look at why they made the right move in 2020 to replace Carson Wentz with Jalen Hurts. The former got the start for the Vikings, had a few laughable turnovers, including a pick-six, while Hurts had maybe the best passing game of his career. Beyond the perfect passer rating, he hit his deep throws and they came at huge moments to salt this 28-22 win away.

This was one of the few close finishes we had this week, and the coaches in this game have two of the best records in such games among active coaches. But I thought there were some questionable strategy decisions in the final quarter.

Up 21-16, the Eagles ran the ball on a 3rd-and-5 on an unproductive day for Saquon Barkley and settled for a 42-yard field goal, which was missed. Down 28-19, the Vikings had a touchdown to T.J. Hockenson overturned by replay after he lost control of the ball after it touched the ground, a nitpicking thing they like to do with catches. I feel like if you control it on the ground and it pops out after you’ve cleared the ground, but you catch it again without it touching the ground, it should count. But they don’t make that distinction.

That gave Kevin O’Connell a tough decision to make on a 4th-and-2 at the Philadelphia 15 with 2:58 left. If it was 4th-and-goal at the 2, I see the argument being quite clear for going for the touchdown. But from the 15? He had four clock stoppages left, and by kicking the field goal there, you give yourself some margin for error to get the stop and get the ball back (want no part of onside kick recovery). With the Eagles, you can’t treat them like a normal 3-down offense. If they get 3rd-and-2 or shorter, they’re probably going Tush Push twice.

So, it looks like the trend is to go for it early these days, but I don’t agree with that in this case. The game is over right there if you don’t convert the 4th-and-2, so I don’t like that idea with almost 3:00 left. Too early to end the game by pushing it into pure miracle territory (stop, score, onside kick recovery, score).

The Vikings ultimately went for it, got it, but after a sack and completion, they ended up wasting the 2-minute warning and still had to kick the field goal anyway on 4th-and-goal from the 11. They wasted a full minute and clock stoppage just to get the field goal they could have got with 2:55 left. Bad process.

That made getting the 3-and-out the last shot. The Eagles gave them a break with a 2nd-and-9 incompletion, but then Hurts found A.J. Brown deep one more time for 45 yards, a dagger. At that point, the Eagles could just run four time-consuming plays and never give the ball back to Minnesota, which is what happened.

Maybe the Vikings never get the ball back either way, but I still think waiting to kick the field goal was a big mistake. Not everything is solved for the Eagles, but at least the passing game showed it can hit big plays. Still have to fix the running game and 3rd down efficiency.

Raiders at Chiefs: The Almost Perfect Game

The spread got up to Chiefs -13.5 once you found out the Raiders wouldn’t have Jakobi Meyers or Brock Bowers available. But what the Raiders really needed was a time machine that could bring Howie Long, Ted Hendricks, Jack Tatum, Charles Woodson, and Willie Brown in their prime to the defense.

Even then it may not have mattered as the Chiefs were as dialed in as you could be for an NFL game these days. For three quarters, this was really close to a perfect performance on both sides of the ball.

The offense had touchdown drives of 92, 84, 94, and 65 yards before settling for a 66-yard field goal drive. That’s over 80 yards per drive and 31 points before Andy Reid pulled Patrick Mahomes, and they were missing 40% of the offensive line as Josh Simmons was inactive and Trey Smith was injured early in the game. Rashee Rice scored two touchdowns, and it felt like they were holding things back still.

But like I’ve been saying for over a year, people have judged Mahomes without his best receivers available despite all the success they still had. Now he gets to play his first game in years with his full arsenal of receivers, and he averages 80.2 yards and 6.2 points per drive. Absurd numbers, and it’s not just a matter of playing the Raiders, who were top 20 in those drive stats coming into the week. The Chiefs have been playing elite offense for several weeks now.

Then the defense pitched the first shutout of the Mahomes era. The Raiders went scoreless on 10 possessions. They ran as many plays (30) as the Chiefs had first downs. It’s just the fourth time in NFL history a team got to 30 first downs while allowing no more than 3 first downs.

This game was pure domination, the most lopsided in the NFL this season.

Colts at Chargers: Indy’s Year?

Talk about role reversal. First, it’s been a long time since the Colts and Chargers have played a real meaningful game against each other. You have to go back to 2013 to find the last time they met in a season they’d both make the playoffs. Maybe that happens this year but no guarantee yet. The Chargers used to give the Colts a hard time too in the Manning era.

But on Sunday, it was all Indy from the start. The Colts led 20-3 and intercepted Justin Herbert twice, including another deflected ball at the line that’s been an issue for him the last month. He ended up throwing for 420 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he needed 55 attempts, he led the team in rushing (31 yards), and his last drive consumed 9:14 off the clock before ending in a failed completion on 4th-and-forever, a killer in a 38-24 game.

The Colts are just so deadly efficient on offense this year. They scored on 6-of-7 drives to start the game, including four long touchdown drives. Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor played great again.

The Colts and Chiefs look like the best teams in the AFC right now, if not the whole NFL as you just can’t argue with this kind of offensive efficiency. Then when you’re getting takeaways, it’s super hard to beat a team playing at this level.

I picked the Colts to win this game, but I thought for sure it’d be a tight one late. But the Colts have legitimate arguments for MVP (Jones), OPOY (Taylor), Coach of the Year (Steichen), and OROY (Tyler Warren).

I liked the supporting cast this summer but obviously had six years of data to not trust Daniel Jones. But he’s proving me and everyone wrong.

Packers at Cardinals: Too Close for Comfort

Maybe Green Bay fans were fair to be worried the team struggled with the Bengals in the second half last week. This team really hasn’t been that great since the first two games of the year, yet they continue getting large spreads.

Jacoby Brissett more or less did what he did last week. Gave the Cardinals a chance, gave them a fourth-quarter lead, got Trey McBride touchdowns in a way Kyler Murray couldn’t last year, and he still came up short in the end in a 27-23 loss as Arizona has blown a league-high four leads in the fourth quarter.

Good game-winning drive for Jordan Love, who doesn’t have a lot of them, and he got an incredible catch from Tucker Kraft on a fourth down. Good game for the DPOY candidacy for Micah Parsons, who had 3.0 sacks despite getting called for only the second hip-drop tackle in the NFL this season.

But I agree with the notion that the Packers aren’t close to playing their best football after the way they played the first two weeks showed promise of an elite team. Up next is SNF in Pittsburgh against a certain quarterback and coach who are steaming after last week’s loss.

Should be good TV.

Patriots at Titans: Mike Vrabel Revenge Game

My most confident pick this week was the Patriots covering the 7-point spread, which went down to 6.5 for some reason. I was nervous to see that along with all the people riding the Titans. I guess the optimism was over the new coach bump, but that lasted about a quarter here. The Patriots trailed 10-3 before winning 31-13 with little resistance from Tennessee.

Cam Ward had another terrible play where the ball just slipped away from him and it went for an easy touchdown. Drake Maye completed 21/23 passes, though he did get sacked four times.

The Patriots took it easy after the fumble touchdown and still covered easily. The Titans have a long way to go, but on the bright side, look how quickly the Patriots have improved after consecutive 4-win seasons. They’re 5-2 now, though this easy schedule is a godsend in 2025.

Commanders at Cowboys: Washington’s Forces Undermanned  

I had high hopes for this game a few days ago, then I saw the Commanders were going to be without their top three wide receivers (Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, Noah Brown). They’re already without their best receiving back (Austin Ekeler), so this is putting a lot of pressure on Jayden Daniels even if it’s against a bad defense.

But the shootout was never quite on as the Commanders punted three times in the first quarter as Dallas was getting some timely pressures and stops at home for a change. The offense was still hot with Dak Prescott getting CeeDee Lamb back to give him his full arsenal, and then Daniels was injured, putting Marcus Mariota in the game. He forced a bad pick six and the rout was on in a 44-22 final.

We’ll see what the news is on Daniels, but the Commanders (3-4) are fading fast with the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Lions up next. Just too many injuries to the wideouts – I’m telling you it’s not normal to be down this many of your top guys at the same time – and now two injuries to Daniels.

I guess I was wrong about Washington in 2025. But at least I didn’t go all in and have them winning the NFC East and getting to a Super Bowl and all that. I learned my lesson from Houston last year.

Saints at Bears: Dennis Allen Revenge Game

With all the revenge games this week, I should have given some thought to Dennis Allen, the Chicago defensive coordinator, taking on his former team that fired him last season. It was an old-school mix of running the ball (222 yards) and defense (four takeaways off Spencer Rattler) that won this game 26-14 rather than Ben Johnson’s passing game.

I’ve given Rattler credit for keeping things close this year, but this was his worst game. Even after some Chris Olave touchdowns turned a 20-0 deficit into a 20-14 game, the Saints were scoreless the rest of the way.

The Bears are 4-2 with key wins over Dallas and Washington for tiebreakers. They were 4-2 last year as well, but I think it’s safe to say this team will finish stronger.

Rams vs. Jaguars: London Jags My Ass

Boy, am I glad I didn’t get up early for the start of this one. The London Jags are supposed to feel comfortable in these surroundings, but I guess Liam Coen didn’t get that memo. This was the team’s worst performance of the season, allowing Matthew Stafford to throw 5 touchdowns without Puka Nacua and without even throwing for 190 yards.

The Jaguars missed one field goal early in the rain, then kept failing on fourth down over and over. Trevor Lawrence basically had three modes: wild incompletion, drop, or sack. The only bright side was Travis Hunter scored his first touchdown and had his biggest impact as a receiver yet, but he also didn’t play defense. So I’m not sure what the plan is there now.

But what a terrible performance for a team that’s been nothing but terrible since upsetting the Chiefs, the game they must have thought was the Super Bowl.

Panthers at Jets: 0-7

I’m proud of my Week 7 picks where I didn’t fall for the bait that the Jets might actually win a game at home against Carolina. My favorite pick was an alternate line for the Panthers (O/U 21.5) to score under 20.5 points, thinking maybe Justin Fields could win a game if the team allows under 21 points seeing as how he’s 0-26 when they allow more.

For the second week in a row, Aaron Glenn’s defense was fine and only allowed 13 points, but Fields was stuck on 3 points before he was benched for Tyrod Taylor. The offense moved better with Taylor, but he’s still one of the worst 4QC quarterbacks in NFL history too, so they still lost 13-6 after not being able to tie the game late. In fact, the Jets punted on 4th-and-10 deep in their own end in no man’s land with 1:55 left. Never saw the ball again.

Panthers lost Bryce Young during the game but it didn’t matter. They’re 4-3 and doing well. The Jets are 0-7 and look like they need a full reset. New York is only the third team since 2008 to lose back-to-back games without allowing more than 13 points. The 2023 Patriots did it three games in a row and the 2011 Bears (Caleb Hanie year) did it for two weeks.

Dolphins at Browns: The End of Mike McDaniel-Tua Tagovailoa?

I’m expecting to wake up Monday and see that the Dolphins fired Mike McDaniel. It’s hardly all his fault this year as the roster is weak, he’s lost key players, and Tua Tagovailoa is playing some horrible football.

But Sunday was likely the last straw as you can’t lose 31-6 to a bad Cleveland team with a rookie quarterback. The Browns hadn’t surpassed 17 points in any game this year, and they may have been stuck there again if Tua didn’t basically spot them 14 points after halftime.

It’s not going to be an attractive job for the next coach either as you have Tua on a ridiculous contract, and Tyreek Hill will probably never be the same player after his injury and his age. Tough sell.

Falcons at 49ers: CMC Carry Job

I did something I don’t think I’ve ever done during Sunday Night Football. I wasn’t feeling well, so I went up to bed, got under the covers, plugged my phone in to charge, turned the game on it, and listened to it while being in twilight sleep mode.

Doesn’t look like I missed much as the game had one 20-yard play, and that was before halftime with the Falcons wasting another pre-halftime drive by not getting any points after a grounding penalty. George Kittle was back and didn’t get a single catch as Mac Jones only threw for 152 yards against that legit Atlanta pass defense.

But it was a great night for a vintage Christian McCaffrey performance. He had 201 yards from scrimmage and iced the game on his second touchdown in a 20-10 win. The Falcons had their shot in a 13-10 game, but they didn’t pick up 1 yard on two plays, and then the 49ers had their long drive to put it away.

Next week: Vikings-Chargers isn’t bad for TNF, but will we see J.J. McCarthy return on a short week? Finally, a break from another international game Sunday morning. Buffalo at Carolina is suddenly more interesting than it has any business being. Chicago-Baltimore is also more interesting for the desperate Ravens. Dallas-Denver will have to carry the weak late slate. Aaron Rodgers gets probably his only shot against the Packers on Sunday night, and I’ll say it early I think he’s going to win  the game. Washington-KC could take a big hit on MNF if Jayden Daniels can’t go, but Chiefs should roll through that defense regardless of the QB.

NFL 2025 Predictions Week 7: Writer’s Block Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I’m blanking on a title this week, so this is the Writer’s Block Edition. Welcome to Week 7 in the NFL, which started with the night where Joe Flacco showed that throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins against a Pittsburgh defense that probably hasn’t shown Joe anything new in 15 years isn’t that hard.

It’s pretty crazy that Aaron Rodgers joins another team and the defense immediately turns to shit. So much money spent on that unit, four players who will get HOF consideration ,and yet they forced zero takeaways, allowed the 32nd-ranked run offense to pile up big yardage, and Flacco picked them apart of course. Real bang-up job, Mike.

Anyways, I’m looking forward to more shootouts this weekend, especially that 4:25 Sunday window with Colts-Chargers and Commanders-Cowboys. Some real potential there. I’ll probably watch RedZone all day, and then I want to see if the prime-time underdog trend continues. Since Week 5, underdogs are 7-1 SU in prime time. The only favorite to win was Kansas City against Detroit last week.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 7: We Need to Talk About Josh Allen and the Disappointing Buffalo Bills
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 7

I used this week’s QB rankings to get off a pretty good-sized rant about Josh Allen and the struggles of the Buffalo Bills, who have their bye. For the Week 7 picks, I have a lot of different markets this week, and I’m still betting on Stefon Diggs to get his first TD (most rec. yards without one in 2025). I see the Titans’ spread has moved to +6.5, so I like NE -6.5 even more than NE -7 with Mike Vrabel probably hoping for a sequel to 59-0.

I’m not even trying to bring back the reverse jinx on the Patriots. I swear…

NFL Week 7 Predictions

Had the Steelers by 1-5 on Thursday night. Oh well.

No Puka Nacua against the London Jags? I think I’ll go Jags, but the under might be the best bet there.

Carson Wentz Revenge Game is really here. But I like the Eagles to get up early and hold onto the lead this time.

Rashee Rice is back, and I can imagine a huge score for the Chiefs at home. But division games have been so shaky for big favorites, and it’d be typical NFL for a team that blew out the Ravens and Lions to barely beat the Raiders at home. I’ll take the Kansas City special: Chiefs win but don’t cover. Maybe it’s Geno in garbage time with the backdoor cover.

Saints keep it close, but Chicago wins close again.

Weather sounds absolutely horrible in Cleveland and we could even get a tornado warning here. I hope I don’t lose power after going 5 days without it the last time a wind storm swept through. But I’ll trust the better defensive team (Browns) to win that one.

Giving the Jets one more try as the Panthers don’t score much on the road.

Again, I like NE big this week.

Chargers used to be a lot of trouble for the Colts in the Manning era, but I think Indy gets this one in their return to SoFi against the other LA team, which is starting No. 4 and No. 5 tackles for Justin Herbert. The Chargers aren’t as dominant defensively this year, so I think Daniel Jones and company can get it done in a good one.

Giants’ pass rush can keep it close but don’t see Jaxson Dart throwing it well in Denver.

I’m going with Dallas at home to edge out Washington, which won’t have Terry McLaurin again while CeeDee Lamb sounds back.

Don’t expect GB to struggle that much with Arizona.

Going with the Falcons on SNF because of that defense against Mac Jones. It has to be good for some huge turnover, right? Always risky to back a road team coming off a huge MNF win, but the 49ers are missing two best defenders and going up against Bijan Robinson and London here. Give me Atlanta.

I think Baker keeps it close Monday night in the potential game of the week, and don’t forget it was a 20-16 TB win in Detroit last year. But I think Detroit wins and would probably pick differently if the full trio of Evans/Godwin/Egbuka were playing.

Seahawks are 3-9 ATS at home under Mike Macdonald. Time to change that and beat Houston comfortably.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I loved the NFL’s Week 7 schedule more than I probably loved the games themselves on Sunday. It wasn’t bad, and most of the top games delivered, but it definitely felt like a return to a lot of weak offense around the league.

 It’s also been oddly one-sided as just four games had a comeback opportunity going into Monday night’s double-header that should hopefully add to that total with Baltimore’s shaky closing abilities and the Chargers just generally being the Chargers.

But that’s a low number of close games despite four teams coming back from a 10-0 deficit to win (Jaguars, Lions, Colts, and Bills). The only fourth-quarter lead changes happened in the two NFC North games.

There were also many quarterback injuries in games, including the one that most people had no problem seeing. That doesn’t mean you wished for it, but you certainly aren’t going to shed a tear or think of it as a loss for the team.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Lions at Vikings: Game of the Week

With the 49ers falling apart, these NFC North games are turning into the biggest ones in the NFC this season, and Week 7 was one hell of a time to test out the Lions and Vikings. We got to see the Vikings after a bye week, and the Lions right after losing Aidan Hutchinson last week.

This 31-29 game managed to exceed the hype. The Lions failed on one of the worst fake punts you’ll ever see to start the game, then lost David Montgomery to an injury and trailed 10-0. Hard to start worse than that.

But Jared Goff completed his first 15 passes, Jahmyr Gibbs broke off a long touchdown run, and the Lions soon led 21-10 at halftime. I liked Detroit in this one because it already has two games of experience late last season against Brian Flores’ defense. They wouldn’t be as shocked by it as these other teams have been this year.

But that doesn’t mean Goff wasn’t under pressure often and had to carve up the blitz. He took 4 sacks and fumbled twice (neither lost) in the game, so it was a tough one. But he hung in there and completed 22-of-25 passes for 280 yards as he is playing as well as any quarterback right now.

Sam Darnold actually had some similar numbers in this game with 22-of-27 for 259 yards and 4 sacks. Justin Jefferson had another big game against the Lions, including a touchdown in the third quarter to make it 21-17.

But while Montgomery returned to the game, it wasn’t for the best. With 6:00 left, Montgomery lost the ball on a run and the Vikings scooped it up for a stunning 36-yard touchdown to take a 29-28 lead with 5:50 left. Huge miss on the 2-point conversion, however.

The Lions went three-and-out with Goff getting sacked on third down again. The Vikings could have ran out the clock on offense, but they too went three-and-out. Gibbs took over instead of Montgomery for the game-winning drive and delivered a huge moment with the drive’s first 34 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught a 14-yard pass, and the Lions were in field goal range.

I know Dan Campbell is as aggressive as they come, but I didn’t love the conservative approach with conceding the long field goal. I’d want to get as close as possible for an unproven pro kicker in Jake Bates, the UFL standout. But from 44 yards away, Bates delivered on the biggest kick of his brief NFL career to put the Lions up 31-29.

Darnold had 15 seconds left at his own 30. He got the ball to midfield, and I’m not sure an illegal formation penalty on a spike with 1 second left (debatable) shouldn’t just be a game-ending penalty with a 10-second runoff. That felt fishy. But the Vikings had one last chance for a Hail Mary, and you never know with Jefferson down there. However, it ended in a fitting way as the Lions sacked Darnold on his ass to end the game and escape with the win.

In the end, the big plays by the Lions were too much for Minnesota to overcome. But I’m looking forward to the other NFC North clashes this year when the Packers get involved too.

Chiefs at 49ers: Super Bowl Rematch Sees These Teams Further Apart as Injuries Mount

To date, the only direct Super Bowl rematch was Dallas vs. Buffalo in 1992-93. With the way these teams are going, we won’t see another in February. Injuries are doing their damage, but the Chiefs remain the NFL’s last unbeaten at 6-0, winners of 12 straight, while the 49ers are flailing at 3-4 after this 28-18 loss at home despite being a 2.5-point favorite.

That means Patrick Mahomes continues to be the ultimate underdog with an 11-3 SU record, but this game was little about him. This was a showcase for the defense, and even if you acknowledge the injuries for the 49ers, they still had talent on that field and the system and mind of Kyle Shanahan calling plays. The Chiefs forced Brock Purdy into one of his roughest games in the NFL as he was intercepted three times, including a total headscratcher in the end zone in the fourth quarter when the 49ers trailed 21-12. Even if he wasn’t pressured as he threw it, that pass looked like it was going right to the defender either way.

Mahomes also had two interceptions in this game, but while he’s had some headscratchers this year, it’s hard to say he did wrong on a tipped pass at the line and a play where the receiver (Xavier Worthy) fell on his route. There were at least four Chiefs who slipped on Mahomes’ incompletions in the game.

But this is the value of the Chiefs in 2024. Even when the team is turning it over multiple times or doing something silly like a fake punt that failed miserably, they overcome it with their defense, and they still score a fair number of points. They scored 28 points in this one with three of those touchdown drives from long distance.

Mahomes’ best play was as a runner when it was a tight 14-12 game. He tightrope-walked the sideline and stayed in bounds for a 33-yard run that set up his first touchdown run since 2022 on a 4th-and-goal at the 1 to make it 21-12.

Still, it’s wild to see the injuries for these teams. Both starting running backs (Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco) were out. The Chiefs were already missing their top wideouts (Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown), and then their new de-facto No. 1, JuJu Smith-Schuster, left the game early after aggravating his hamstring. The 49ers lost Deebo Samuel quickly to an illness, Brandon Aiyuk was knocked out with a potentially serious injury, and Jauan Jennings, who actually leads the team in receiving yards before this game, was already inactive. Just a mess.

But the Chiefs still found ways to score four touchdowns and actually were leading by 16 points before a San Francisco touchdown made it a 28-18 final. That final score by the Chiefs got them to 28 points, the first time they scored that much during this 12-game winning streak.

That just creates a new record, however. The Chiefs are the first team in NFL history to win 12 straight games without scoring more than 28 points in any of them. Their next opponent (Raiders) is the last team to beat them, but this season is beyond fucked if that ends up being their first loss in 2024.

It’s coming eventually with the way they’re playing, but they were still impressive enough in this game. Not everyone can do that to the 49ers, injuries or not.

Texans at Packers: My Preseason Hype Teams Played the Walk-Off FG Finish I Expected

I’ve been high on the Texans and Packers as “new powers” in the league since February really. I was looking forward to this one since we probably won’t get many games between Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud, but I was stunned at just how well Green Bay limited the Houston passing game.

The Packers have feasted on turnovers this year while still giving up their share of yards and points. But this was an impressive performance where they really held Stroud in check without a single takeaway. They held him to 86 passing yards on 21 throws, and they sacked him 4 times while flustering him all day. The Texans scored on a lot of short fields and couldn’t really sustain offense.

On the other side, Jordan Love had one of those mixed games where he made some “wow” throws, but he had a few more picks, and he couldn’t get some of his best receivers going against this pass defense.

But it was a close game as I expected. I picked the Texans to win because I trust Stroud more than Love in those moments. Sure enough, Stroud saved probably his best throw of the game for a late third down when the Texans were driving in a 21-19 game late. But the Packers had all of their timeouts, and the Texans failed to get the touchdown or a first down to run out the clock for their field goal. They had to settle for taking a 22-21 lead with 1:44 left.

A lead is a lead, but that’s not a very safe one with that much time left. However, I wanted to see how Love would fare here as we have seen him struggle to come up with a field goal in these moments. Think of last year in games like Atlanta, Denver, or San Francisco in the playoffs. He was only 2-8 at comeback opportunities before Sunday.

Also, the Packers have been going through kickers like crazy, so you had to wonder how newly signed Brandon McManus would do. I know him best from Denver, and he’s been an adequate enough kicker in his career.

But Love had to get him in range, and that didn’t prove to be a big problem this time. He marched the offense 44 yards in a hurry. McManus was left with a 45-yard kick to win it, and after an icing attempt, he delivered the goods for a 24-22 win. That’s a quality one for the Packers this year.

Jets at Steelers: Tomlin Knew

For the last six weeks, I’ve basically come on here and said that I’m not impressed with what Justin Fields is doing in the Pittsburgh offense. He looked a lot like the quarterback from Chicago in that he’s slow with his decisions, he rifles too many throws, doesn’t make the touch passes on time, he’s a magnet for sacks and fumbles, and he’s possibly the least clutch QB of the 21st century.

Yet, the NFL groupthink seemed to get stronger every week that Fields is now good, and the Steelers would be crazy to bench him for old Russell Wilson. They kept citing the 4-2 record, even though the Steelers had not won a game when the opponent scored more than 13 points all season. The offense, including Fields himself, had a lot of mediocre rankings as well. These were results you could certainly improve on with a quarterback of Wilson’s experience. He only was out because of his calf. He was going to be the Week 1 starter otherwise.

So, I was always hoping for Mike Tomlin to come to his senses and start Wilson, but I was skeptical he’d actually do it because of the team’s record. Yet, Tomlin had the balls this week to defy that national NFL groupthink and go with Wilson. People created silly stats like the “first 4-2 quarterback to get benched” when it’s not even the first time in Pittsburgh history. Joe Gilliam was benched for Terry Bradshaw in 1974 despite starting 4-1-1, a better record than 4-2. But I guess since it’s not exactly 4-2, they think their insignificant stat has meaning. Screw that.

I still liked the Jets to win the game Sunday night, but that’s because I had much higher expectations for Aaron Rodgers and that offense after a good showing (kicker aside) against Buffalo last week, and the addition of Davante Adams via trade. Sure enough, Rodgers threw his first pass to Rodgers, but the receiver couldn’t pull it in, and he finished with just 3 catches for 30 yards on 9 targets as Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson looked better in that offense.

Well, Wilson was fine until the third quarter when he popped an easy catch into the air for an interception that was returned to the 1. There’s your game changer. Rodgers didn’t have a good game and especially not a good second half, but that second pick was not his fault at all. The Jets just have many issues.

As for Wilson, he no doubt got off to a bad start. After he attempted to kill Earthworm Jim on back-to-back plays, I thought he really did go The Full McNabb with 2011 Vikings vibes. Someone sign Christian Ponder.

But games are 60 minutes, and we know even in Russ’ prime he could start a game ugly. Before you knew it, he had as many passing yards at halftime as Fields had in half of his full games this season. Wilson throws with more touch, he gives his receivers more opportunities down the field, and he makes better and faster decisions with the ball than Fields. Did he get lucky on a few passes? Sure, but it was his first game in 10 months, and his first with Pittsburgh. Do you remember how Rodgers looked in his first games of the last two seasons with New York, or Tom Brady’s debut in Tampa Bay? It was worse than this.

Wilson did a very nice job, and he showed he was mobile enough to only take 1 sack on the night. He also didn’t throw any picks. Justin Fields has literally never had a start in the NFL where he threw no picks and didn’t take multiple sacks. Wilson did that in his first game with Pittsburgh. He also didn’t fumble like Fields did weekly. The running game also didn’t die with him in there as Najee Harris continues to look highly motivated these last two games. George Pickens also caught his first touchdown of the season.

Russ had a definite huge impact on the offense, and he feels more in control at the line than Fields ever did. He won’t run as fast as Fields, but he rarely needs to. That’s not the kind of quarterback play that’s going to take you far, and Tomlin understands that. I think benching Fields will prove to be one of his smartest moves in years.

The quarterback who actually looked too old and slow on Sunday night was Rodgers. Is he going to trade Wilson next after that dropped pass turned pick? They’re 2-5 and fading fast even in a weakened AFC.

But Sunday night was a great one for Tomlin and anyone who didn’t see what the fuss was with Fields all these weeks.

Titans at Bills: Box Score Blowout Doesn’t Tell the Story

The numbers are going to make this one look like a boring rout, a 34-10 blowout where Josh Allen threw for over 300 yards, Amari Cooper caught a touchdown in his team debut, and the Titans still struggled to score with Mason Rudolph starting for an injured Will Levis (AC joint).

Those things are all true, but this was a tough game for Buffalo deep into the third quarter. The Bills went three-and-out 3 times in the first quarter and fell behind 10-0. Cooper dropped his first target. Rudolph was outplaying Allen.

But the Titans really screwed themselves to start the second half when they went for a 4th-and-2 at their own 44 and Tony Pollard was stuffed for a big loss. Why would they do that with a 10-7 lead? The offense was not thriving to the point where you could trust them to convert and actually turn it into points.

The defense was playing well, and Buffalo was struggling on offense. This just gave them a huge boost as Allen took the field 41 yards away from the end zone and the drive ended with Cooper scoring. The Bills led the rest of the game. Terrible decision by the Titans to go for it.

The Bills padded some stats late with the game in hand, including a 16-yard touchdown run after the 2-minute warning. But the Titans had a shot for most of this game. Far from your normal 34-10 rout.

Seahawks at Falcons: Surprising Rout

These teams have played many close games, and you just expected that sort of finish in a passing fest between Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins. Actually, I thought it’d be a passing clinic with Geno facing a defense without a pass rush, but he moved around well and threw for 181 yards at halftime. I just didn’t expect him to barely finish the game with 200 yards as the run game and defense showed up for Seattle to finish the Falcons off in maybe their worst team performance of the season.

Just when you thought Cousins would make it a one-score game while trailing 24-14 in the fourth quarter, the Seahawks had the plot twist with a strip-sack and recovery for a touchdown to make it 31-14 with 12:4 6 left. Cousins threw another pick on the next drive, and we ended up seeing the first NFL completion of rookie Michael Penix’s career before this one ended 34-14.

No quarterback controversy in Atlanta (yet), but this one surprised me as I thought for sure the Falcons would do more damage against that Seattle defense in the dome.

Eagles at Giants: The Saquon Revenge Game Delivers

Revenge games can be overrated but running back Saquon Barkley had one of the best you’ll ever see for the Eagles against his Giants. He really carried the offense with 176 yards on just 17 carries, and he scored the game’s first touchdown, which might have been enough given the Giants could only muster a field goal in the 28-3 blowout.

That left Jalen Hurts with an easy job as he only had to throw for 114 yards. The game was avert-your-eyes bad for pass blocking as all four quarterbacks who played took sacks, including backup Kenny Pickett, and there were 13 sacks total between the teams.

Naturally, Daniel Jones took the worst of it with 7 sacks in a game where he didn’t have left tackle Andrew Thomas (surgery). Jones finished with 43 yards on 28 pass plays, which is pathetic even for his low standards.

The Giants punted 11 times, so they were even absurdly boring in blowout fashion. At least throw some picks. Risk something.

Bengals at Browns: When Losing Is Good

The Browns got Nick Chubb back for the first time in over a year, and they lost Deshaun Watson for the season to a torn Achilles on a non-contact play. All in all, that sounds like a great day, right?

Oddly enough, Chubb scored a touchdown on the drive where Watson was injured right before the half. Almost as if karma was taking over and the fortune was changing for Cleveland. But I thought it was odd before the game that Jameis Winston was announced as the No. 3 quarterback, demoted for the young Dorian Thompson-Robinson. What did Jameis do to get demoted? I thought he was the best quarterback on this roster.

It may have cost the Browns too, because DTR stunk off the bench. He completed 11-of-24 passes for 82 yards with multiple picks. A 34-yard run was his longest play on a day the Browns couldn’t actually run the ball on Cincinnati, a defense that has done a huge turnaround these last two weeks thanks to playing lines like the Giants and Browns in 2024.

But DTR was injured, allowing Winston to play in the fourth quarter. But it was too late by then. The Bengals started the game with a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown, but that Joe Burrow-led offense managed just two touchdowns in this 21-14 final. Another ho-hum performance where the Bengals were fortunate to be playing a bad team.

But the Watson story is over for 2024, and maybe that could help the Browns move on from him faster. Cleveland players supported Watson after the game and criticized the fans for cheering his injury. I could see where they’re coming from as teammates, and probably as players who hope they aren’t cheered while injured down the road. But they should also understand why fans feel that way about Watson.

Of course, I wouldn’t expect Winston or Myles Garrett to be the voice of reason on this topic. Winston is especially a bad messenger for this, and Garrett should know better as someone who is supposed to be the face of the franchise.

But it was nice to see Chubb back and in the end zone. More of that going forward.

Patriots vs. Jaguars: Do I Get on a Soapbox Again About That Strategy?

I didn’t get up to watch this one and see the Jaguars explode back from a 10-0 hole, but I was awake to see the 2-point conversion strategy become a talking point again. The Patriots were down 25-10, scored a touchdown with 8:22 left, decided to go for 2, didn’t get it, and they trailed by 9+ for the rest of the game, which eventually became a 32-16 loss after a poor finish.

I am consistently against going for 2 on the first touchdown as it is the strategy more likely to lead you into needing one onside kick recovery, if not two, and I never want anything to do with that hopeless endeavor. I also think the later in the game, the worse of a strategy it is. This wasn’t super late, but you have to keep in mind the Patriots hadn’t scored since the first quarter.

Also, when people talk about having “more information” aspect of it, do they ever consider things like the fact that the Patriots never ran a play from deeper than the Jacksonville 16 in this game? Seriously. Their failed 2-point conversion attempt was their only snap inside the final 15 yards of opponent territory in the game. Not exactly much practice at running your red zone and goal line packages in this game. Instead you’re completely cold to that area in the game, and now you have to make this crucial play or you’re down 2 scores with half a quarter left. Just something to consider that I never see considered. I don’t think confidence gets considered enough, not to mention the hopelessness felt from being down 2 scores.

But I don’t feel like getting into it any more over an inconsequential game between two of the worst teams in the league. I just know when the Patriots forced a punt and got the ball back with 3:58 left, it sure as hell would have been nicer if they were down 25-17 instead of 25-16. That way you could even punt on 4th-and-26 instead of having to go for it and for sure ending the game early with a big loss.

At least give me a chance in a one-score game. But the Patriots should again feel some encouragement with Drake Maye, who threw for 276 yards, 2 more touchdowns, and only took 2 sacks on 37 pass attempts. I’m not sure what sitting behind Jacoby Brissett did for him, but I’m glad we’re past that part of the season.

That still doesn’t mean I want to wake up at 9:30 A.M. to watch the post-Belichick Patriots play overseas against the London Jaguars.

Raiders at Rams: The “If a Bear Shits in the Woods…” Game of the Week

It’s a little early in the season to just not care at all about these teams, but that’s where I am already. I just don’t see either being part of the playoff picture. Matthew Stafford and Gardner Minshew both threw for 154 yards in this game, though Minshew did his work off the bench after starter Aidan O’Connell left with an injury.

But the Raiders kept trying to chip away with field goals while the Rams missed potentially a huge 35-yard field goal with 10:11 left that would have made it a 23-12 lead. Instead, Minshew later got the ball back in a 20-15 game with 1:39 left. If he truly is the Ryan Fitzpatrick of the 2020s, he lived up to the reputation with a game-ending interception on the third play of the drive. Good pressure on the drive by Jared Verse, who I guess is still the frontrunner for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Dolphins at Colts: Neither Team Had Their Best Quarterback

Tough loss for Miami (2-4) if they were hoping to get back in this thing with Tua Tagovailoa maybe returning at quarterback next week. They were up 10-0 and Anthony Richardson couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn with his passes.

But the Dolphins gave up a big completion before halftime, which led to a field goal for the Colts. Then in the third quarter, they really coughed up the game to the Colts. Raheem Mostert lost a fumble, which led to a 28-yard touchdown drive, then Alec Ingold lost a fumble in the red zone in a 10-10 game.

The Colts had the ball to start the fourth and Richardson led what is technically his first game-winning drive in the NFL, ending with a 22-yard field goal with 8:41 left. But the Dolphins lost Tyler Huntley to injury, and he was replaced by the dreadful Tim Boyle. Kicker Jason Sanders missed a 54-yard tying field goal with 5:14 left.

After the Colts added a field goal to make it 16-10, a move you can get away with against Boyle, it was a poorly-run 2-minute drill for the Dolphins that didn’t make it past the Indy 33 before Boyle sailed his 4th-down pass out of bounds. Either he’s incredibly inaccurate and tried to get that pass to the sidelines, or he didn’t realize it was fourth down.

Either way, I hate entertaining either of these teams for wild card spots. This is not good football. A game between Joe Flacco and Tua might have been alright though.

Panthers at Commanders: Please, Spare My Favorite Rookie

The crazy thing is Jayden Daniels left in the first quarter with a rib injury and the Commanders still won 40-7. The Washington defense still matched the Carolina team in scoring thanks to a horrific Andy Dalton pick-six starting the scoring in the game. But Marcus Mariota replaced Daniels very well, and it was business as usual for this offense.

I think that says a lot more about how bad the Panthers are (again) than anything about Daniels being a system quarterback. You can’t teach his 46-yard run to anyone, but Mariota is a good fit for that offense.

I just hope Daniels is okay to go next week in the showdown with Chicago and fellow rookie Caleb Williams. It was clear there was no need to rush him back in this game with the score lopsided so quickly.

Next week: Vikings-Rams on TNF. Better than putting Sam Darnold in prime time a week later when the ghosts are out. Eagles-Bengals is a nice game for teams who peaked in 2022. I hope they #FreeJameis against Baltimore in Cleveland. The Falcons-Bucs rematch could be something after the first game was excellent. We need Jayden Daniels healthy for that Chicago game to save the late-window slate. Cowboys-49ers is oddly more interesting now that both teams are struggling. Giants-Steelers means we get to live the Russ experience in prime time again, but I see that as T.J. Watt’s launch game towards DPOY since he gets to face Daniel Jones. Overall, a huge step down from the Week 7 marquee games.

NFL 2024 Week 7 Predictions: Strongest Schedule Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I wouldn’t even say it was by accident, but the NFL has loaded up the best schedule of the 2024 season (so far) with the Week 7 slate. Texans-Packers, Lions-Vikings, Chiefs-49ers, and Ravens-Bucs are all great games, and even Sunday night’s Jets-Steelers game has drama with the debuts of Davante Adams and Russell Wilson on their new teams.

It’s definitely one of those pivotal weeks in the Super Bowl chase as the 49ers need to get a win for their mental health against the Chiefs just to show they can beat that team, their personal road block to multiple championships. We also get to see just how real the Vikings and Sam Darnold are in this NFC North race against the Lions, and I think Texans-Packers is a great non-conference matchup between two teams I was very high on in the offseason.

Favorites were dominant last week with a 12-2 record SU. I’d keep that in mind when it comes to picking this week’s winners, especially in those big games were the road teams are slight underdogs and home-field isn’t what it used to be in this league.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 7 Predictions

I confused Sean Payton for still coaching the Saints, but Denver was in fact my pick on Thursday night, a terrible game to watch. I’m not getting up early for Pats-Jags either. But the good stuff should start at 1 PM.

Pats-Jags: Jacksonville has to win or they’re going to fire Doug Pederson, right? But Drake Maye showed some positives against the Texans last week, so I’m going to hedge and still take the Pats to cover in a closer game than both teams played last week.

Titans-Bills: It looks like Mason Rudolph is starting for Will Levis, but he returns to Buffalo where he lost a playoff game 31-17 with Pittsburgh last year. The Bills haven’t blown anyone out in weeks so they feel due for a big, easy win at home here. The Titans just can’t score enough.

Texans-Packers: I said my 2024 predictions would be horrible if these teams bombed, but they’re 4-2 and 5-1 right now. I’m siding with the Texans here, because I think the Packers have been feasting on turnovers, C.J. Stroud usually protects the ball, and the running game has looked very good with Joe Mixon in the game this year. I also trust Stroud more than Love in crunch time, so I think the Texans can win this one by a late score. Should be good.

Dolphins-Colts: I changed my gut pick here to Miami, a team that tends to win when I expect them to lose. But it’s mostly just that I don’t trust Anthony Richardson, especially without Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. Give me a Colts win if Joe Flacco was the QB, but that’s not the case (unless AR gets hurt again).

Seahawks-Falcons: Could be a good one, but I’m going to trust Atlanta at home as I just don’t trust the Seattle defense. They played bad offenses to start the season and have suffered injuries. Too much skill for Atlanta but it is a push candidate on the spread.

Lions-Vikings: Good spot to see how the Vikings play out of the bye week and how the Lions handle losing Aidan Hutchinson. But my belief is the Lions are going to be the best prepared team to face the Vikings after seeing them twice late in the 2023 season and winning both games. I think they get some turnovers from Sam Darnold, I think Jared Goff does enough against that Brian Flores’ defense, and the Lions keep rolling with a win.

Bengals-Browns: Nick Chubb is back and Kevin Stefanski owns the Bengals in his career. The only problem here is Deshaun Watson is the worst QB in the NFL still starting games. However, I’m going to hedge on the history here and at least give the Browns a chance to cover 5.5 at home. We know the Bengals are a lousy big favorite.

Eagles-Giants: I want to trust Saquon Barkley to have a big Revenge Game in a win. I feel better about it after he was shut down last week. Why? Week-to-week league. What was down last week goes up the next week. Plus I just don’t trust Daniel Jones to beat this team, something I don’t believe he’s done since 2021 when Jalen Hurts had maybe the worst game of his career in a 13-7 final.

Raiders-Rams: Isn’t Stafford contractually obligated to be in a close game every Sunday afternoon? I like the Rams to win, but I’m not trusting them with a 7-point spread.

Panthers-Commanders: Again, it’s time for big favorites to start regressing to the mean and crushing teams. The Commanders have some blowout wins and I just don’t think Panthers will keep up with that offense. Could be a 30-20 game.

Chiefs-49ers: Does the 11-game winning streak continue? We know the Chiefs are usually great after a bye, but the 49ers played last Thursday so it’s not as big of an advantage. Then again, they’ve had byes before two Super Bowls and the Chiefs always find a way to win against Shanahan in the Mahomes era. I could see the Chiefs slipping up here with JuJu popping up with a hamstring issue late in the week. But I also think Purdy holding the ball longer and getting less YAC this season could play into Spags’ hands with blitzes. Should be a good one I’m going to try to watch most of live. I’ll cautiously pick the Chiefs, because you know better than to doubt Mahomes as a road underdog.

Jets-Steelers: I’ll be picking the Jets regardless of which QB the Steelers start. I think Russ is the right call, but all week I’ve pegged this as a game where the Jets will score like 24-27 points and the Steelers will lose, causing people to blame the QB change while ignoring that Justin Fields is 0-22 when the team allows more than 20 points in his career. But I think Rodgers will be comfortable against this predictable defense barring a Watt monster game, and I expect Davante Adams to have an impact immediately. No game-losing INT to Mike Williams this week. Jets finally end the losing streak in what should be a close game.

Ravens-Bucs: Great potential here but I’m not liking the Mike Evans injury news. Sounds like he’ll play though. Ravens are just a tough matchup but at least they faced each other in 2022, so that’s somewhat recent. I’m trusting Lamar to improve to 23-1 against the NFC.

Chargers-Cardinals: No Chargers game has reached 40 total points this year, so the Harbaugh impact has been crazy in multiple ways. The Cardinals are a great 1Q offense before disappearing the rest of the game. Not expecting a ton from this one but I’ll cautiously back the Chargers for another win.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

~ Scott ~ 14 Comments

Save for a Monday night game with Kirk Cousins facing a Super Bowl contender, Week 7 is in the books. While everyone has at least 10 more games to play before the playoffs, we may have reached that point where a Super Bowl rematch from last year looks more probable than any other scenario. Remember, it has only happened one time ever with the Cowboys and Bills in 1992-93.

The Chiefs and Eagles were the favorites before the season started, but we watched Kansas City lose by a point on opening night to Detroit, we questioned if the offense was still as potent with the wide receivers, and we saw the Eagles win some one-score games where they weren’t as impressive as they were a season ago when they had so much balance and avoided turnovers on offense. We were briefly entertaining how good Miami’s scoring was, how it could be Buffalo or Dallas’ year for a change, and of course the 49ers looked like the best overall team in the league until they stumbled in Cleveland last week.

But the roads to the Super Bowl may still very well go through Kansas City and Philadelphia after they both won 31-17 games at home in a Week 7 that featured 10-of-12 games with a comeback opportunity. It comes down to trust, and right now, do you really trust teams like Buffalo, Dallas, and Miami to get the job done in January? Do you even trust the 49ers over the Eagles, who are practically automatic in short-yardage situations and are getting an all-time stretch from A.J. Brown? Patrick Mahomes (+260 at FanDuel) is also back as the MVP favorite after throwing for 424 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Of course, another Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl would be nightmare fuel for conspiracy theorists who want to say the league is fixing things for Taylor Swift, and that would be her ideal matchup for sure. But if you look around the league in Week 7, officiating is quite shitty in most games these days. That’s part of the product now.

One thing I expected to see in Week 7 was more overs hitting after the under was 12-2-1 in Week 6. But after a solid start to the week, overs are still just 5-7 (or 6-6 if you got Chiefs-Chargers at 47.5) going into Monday night. There were only 3 games this week where both teams scored more than 17 points, and one of them was Thursday night when the Saints lost 31-24 to the Jaguars.

Another thing we have yet to see this week was a team win after trailing by 10+ points. There have only been 2 weeks in the regular season since 2020 where this did not happen once, and it was in Weeks 10-11 (back-to-back) of the 2021 season. If the Vikings go up 10-0 early on Monday night, hammer the 49ers’ ML.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Dolphins at Eagles: Brother, Can You Spare a Yard?

Is it asking too much to have a Sunday Night Football game this season where both teams score at least 3 touchdowns? It would be if the game was Cowboys-Giants (Week 1’s 40-0 rout), but Dolphins-Eagles should have been a solid shootout with two of the best offenses in the league.

Instead, we saw the home team control play, never trail, and that historic Miami offense was held to 10 points, 12 first downs, and 244 total yards (all season lows). Miami’s first score was a 1-yard field goal drive set up by a turnover, and its last score was a pick-six after a deflected pass at the line went right to the defender. You could argue this Miami offense only had one legitimate scoring drive, a 72-yard march before halftime that ended with Tua Tagovailoa’s best throw of the night on a 27-yard touchdown to Tyreek Hill, who was held to 11 catches for 88 yards. With 15 targets for Hill, you’ll take that as a defense against him.

It did not help Miami that it only had 8 offensive possessions and squandered the last three with two failed 4th downs and a bad interception in the fourth quarter when the Dolphins trailed 24-17.

Both offensive lines looked outmatched early, but the Eagles eventually got the better of the physical play up front and got to their game in short yardage. The Eagles were 4-for-4 on fourth down, including a pair of 4th-and-1 conversions inside their own 40 on a drive that ended with a short touchdown run to take a commanding 31-17 lead with 4:46 left. What can you say about the Brotherly Shove other than this team has perfected it?

A.J. Brown had both of the game’s plays that gained over 30 yards, continuing his record-tying streak of five consecutive games with at least 125 receiving yards:

For the Eagles, I had that record going back to last year’s Super Bowl where this team was 0-7 in the Jalen Hurts era in games against teams with 10 wins and a quarterback ranked in the top 15 in QBR. This could end up being the first win in that split, assuming Tagovailoa finishes the season well and the Dolphins double their win total.

But there was some concern coming into this game that Miami was a paper tiger with a 48-20 beatdown loss in Buffalo and all the team’s wins against teams who were a combined 5-24 going into the week. A performance like this in Philadelphia will only strengthen people to not believe in this team, but they were a bit shorthanded at corner with Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey not available. Jaylen Waddle also momentarily left the game with a bad back but did return to finish, and we are missing a chance to see rookie running back De’Von Achane after injury sidelined him for weeks to come.

But for as much as I can talk about the Eagles not beating the good teams/QBs, the Dolphins don’t have a quality win in that department since Week 3 last year against Buffalo, the beginning of Tua’s concussion problems. Miami still has a lot to prove, and a game like this puts a real dent in the chances this offense breaks records by season’s end.

Chargers at Chiefs: The Most Boring Second Half in a Herbert-Mahomes Game Yet

Kansas City with a defense is a scary proposition for the rest of the NFL. There were few better ways to test this than a game with the Chargers, who always play the Chiefs well. In fact, Justin Herbert led at halftime and in the fourth quarter in each of his first 6 games against Kansas City, including all 5 matchups against Patrick Mahomes.

But those streaks are dead, and I guess my jinxing power is still strong. I had the stat this week where Chargers +3.5 in the first half was a hit in the last 16 games for the Chargers. It hit in 33 of the first 40 games for coach Brandon Staley as this team struggles in the second half but not so much in the first.

After a 60-yard pass to Josh Palmer and a 49-yard touchdown run by Josh Kelley in the second quarter, it looked like the Chargers were having their usual Kansas City game where Herbert plays great and goes score for score with Mahomes. So much for this “great defense” when the Chargers were tied 17-17 and driving at midfield. But after a Herbert sack led to a punt, the Chiefs made another one of those dagger drives before halftime, going 96 yards in the final minutes before finishing with a touchdown to Travis Kelce, who bullied his way in with the help of his line from the 1-yard line.

The touchdown likely never happens, and Chargers +3.5 1H probably survives another game, if not for a defensive pass interference on the Chargers to wipe out a 3rd-and-23 situation for Kansas City. Just my luck some Chargering would end this streak and blow the bet.

But down 24-17, the Chargers were in this one even though Mahomes passed for 321 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception (arm punt on 3rd-and-12) in the first half alone as the Chiefs were all about the pass (6 runs for 12 yards at halftime). It looked like we would get another fantastic finish, especially after Blake Bell provided the obligatory Chiefs fumble in the red zone to start the second half.

But a strange thing happened in the second half: 10 drives, 7 points total between the teams. A 24-17 half ended 31-17, which is very unusual in NFL history.

Out of 433 games since 1970 where both teams scored at least 17 points in the first half, this is only the 27th game (6.2%) that finished under 48.5 total points. It is only the 6th game to end under 48.5 after a half where one team scored at least 24 points and the other scored at least 17.

The turnovers were obviously costly. The Chargers took the Bell fumble, drove to the Kansas City 8, then Herbert’s pass was deflected at the line and wound up as an interception.

Despite that pick, the Chargers had the ball in the fourth quarter, down 24-17, on three different drives and failed to do anything with it. That’s not what we’d see from Kansas City defenses in past years.

If you give Herbert 3 drives to do something, he usually can get a score on one, but not on Sunday. If you give Mahomes 3 drives to put the game away, you can all but guarantee he’s going to do it eventually. The first two likely only failed because they started at the Kansas City 3 and 8 (backed up). But after Mecole Hardman made his return felt with a 50-yard punt return, it was smooth sailing for the Chiefs with 6:16 to go. Mahomes converted a 3rd-and-6 to Hardman, then threw his 4th touchdown of the game to Isiah Pacheco with 3:30 left to take a 31-17 lead.

In no man’s land on 2nd-and-24 at midfield, Herbert threw another desperation interception to end the game. Herbert had the first game of his career where he threw multiple interceptions and took at least 4 sacks (he had 2 INTs and 5 sacks).

The Chiefs are the only team in the league to not allow more than 21 points in any game this season. Mahomes’ 6th game with 400 yards and 4 touchdowns ties him for third place in NFL history.

When every non-playoff rest game between these teams had been decided by 1-6 points since 2020 when Herbert became the starter, this one ending 31-17 is another sign that we should respect this defense. I don’t know if they can keep it up for a whole season as the last teams to start like this eventually faded, but if the offense is going to have halves like it did on Sunday to start this game, it may not matter.

Bills at Patriots: The Mac Jones Era Will Survive Another Week

This was the upset of the week. Buffalo (-7.5) has been flirting with extremes from a 48-20 win over the Dolphins to losing 25-20 in London to Jacksonville, then coming up a yard short of losing to the Giants in a 14-9 game last week.

I thought they would take last week’s scare and go the opposite direction with a commanding win over a New England team they have owned since 2020, and possibly put an end to the Mac Jones era.

But this wasn’t some 4-D chess by the Bills to make the Patriots keep Jones as the starter. This was just a bad performance on both sides of the ball and it’s inexcusable at this point. The offense may have some flaws, but it is more than talented enough to have more than 10 points on the board before the fourth quarter. The defense has injuries as we all know, but the New England offense has been so bad that there’s no excuse for allowing the Patriots to pile up 29 points and 364 yards.

What were some of Buffalo’s problems? The usual case of relying a bit too much on Josh Allen, who can be a wild card with his decision making. He had a pick and lost a fumble in this game. But the offensive line also struggled to protect him, and that’s surprising when the Patriots didn’t even have their best pass rusher (Matt Judon) or corner (Christian Gonzalez). Stefon Diggs usually has his way with the Patriots, but he only had 58 yards on 12 targets this time. Gabriel Davis is a flawed No. 2 as he only had a 6-yard catch on 5 targets.

But to let Jones complete 25-of-30 passes for 272 yards and 2 touchdowns? Come on, Buffalo. This was looking to be a big New England win after the Patriots took a 22-10 lead with half a quarter to play, but the Bills staged an impressive team comeback. Diggs broke free on an athletic 25-yard touchdown, then the defense forced Kendrick Bourne to fumble on a completion, putting the Bills 29 yards away from the go-ahead touchdown with 4:56 left.

This is exactly the kind of back-breaking fumble that has been killing the Patriots in close games like this since 2020. The kind of play that has nothing to do with the quarterback or head coach, but it’s the type of mistake we’re not used to seeing the Patriots make. Sure enough, the Bills turned that short field into a touchdown on an Allen sneak, then the 2-point conversion was also successful to make it 25-22.

Plenty of time (1:58) for the Patriots to answer, but it was a windy day for kickers, and Jones had the worst record among active quarterbacks in comeback opportunities at 1-11. Almost immediately the Bills were in bad shape as the Patriots called a little pass to running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who took it 34 yards and got this thing rolling. A pass interference penalty put the ball at the 1, and Jones threw a game-winning touchdown pass to tight end Mike Gesicki with 12 seconds left for easily the best game-winning drive we’ve seen from the Patriots since the 2018 season.

The Bills only had time to fumble on a lateral attempt. Buffalo is only 4-3, and while we put a lot of stock in that 48-20 thrashing of the Dolphins, we have to question the Bills’ wins the same way we do Miami’s since they are against similar teams (Raiders, Commanders, and Giants).

The good news is Miami lost too Sunday night, but the whole AFC East is looking a bit fraudulent right now. With a chance to knock the Patriots out, the Bills folded on defense to Mac Jones in the clutch. That’s pretty low.

Lions at Ravens: Rout of the Week

If Bills-Patriots was the upset of the week, this was the unexpected rout of the week. I was really confident in this being a great 23-20 type of game that went down to the wire. Even when the Ravens went up 21-0, you could picture them blowing it with the way they have played since 2021. Too many blown leads and close games.

But this was an ass kicking the likes of which we have rarely seen this year. We definitely do not see Dan Campbell-coached teams get dragged like this for 60 minutes. The Lions are 28-13 ATS (68.3%) since 2021, the best record in the league in that time, and we have seen this team rally back to one-score losses against elite teams the last few years like the 2021 49ers (41-33), 2022 Eagles (38-35), and 2022 Bills (28-25).

With Detroit trying to go to 6-1, Lamar Jackson came prepared with arguably the best game of his career: 21-of-27 for 357 yards, 3 touchdown passes, 36 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, and 4 straight long touchdown drives to begin the game. It may have been 5 touchdowns in a row if Jackson had not had an aborted snap, the only blemish to an otherwise perfect half.

Baltimore even started the second half with a 94-yard touchdown drive, showing this was not a day where the team would make things too close for comfort. The Lions only got on the board when it was 35-0 in the fourth quarter when rookie Jahmyr Gibbs scored his first NFL touchdown, but the Lions lost 38-6 as Jared Goff took 5 sacks and threw 53 passes in an effort to try to keep up.

But the Ravens dominated this one start to finish, which is not the type of performance we’ve seen from this team that often. I’m not sure if it was just one of those anomaly days for both teams, but this was a strong statement as people were giving me pushback earlier this month for suggesting the Ravens were a legit contender and a team like Detroit was merely window dressing for the Super Bowl competition.

Browns at Colts: The Unexpected Quasi-Shootout

From Saturday’s predictions: “Wouldn’t it be such a #RandomNFL thing for the Browns to beat the 49ers with P.J. Walker but lose to the Colts with Deshaun Watson back? I almost picked it outright, but we’ll go with an Indy cover.”

Since 1950, NFL teams were 0-631 when allowing 38 points, throwing 2 interceptions, and getting outgained by at least 110 yards. Welcome to history because the Browns won doing all those things in Indy on Sunday.

Something always felt off about this game, and I’m still surprised picking Indy +3.5 and the Browns to win proved to be my best game prediction in Week 7. But the Browns were getting so much credit for the defense, and the Colts are now the only team in the league to score at least 20 points in every game.

But I don’t think anyone in the world could have predicted a 39-38 final from this one. What makes it even crazier is P.J. Walker outplayed Deshaun Watson, who left injured very early after he slammed his head on the ground, and while the Cleveland defense technically did some great things to get this win, it was at the expense of holding the Colts to 38 points instead of closer to 50 like they had potential for. Is that great defense these days? Meh.

I don’t know what this game will do for Cleveland going forward, but Gardner Minshew throwing for 305 yards and running in 2 touchdowns has to knock some shine off the idea of this being a historic defense.

And yet, it was a monster performance from Myles Garrett that helped turn things around for Cleveland. He forced a strip-sack of Minshew, which led to a short field and game-tying touchdown at 14-14. He blocked a 60-yard field goal in impressive fashion, though you could argue the Colts should have punted there early in the second quarter. Garrett then forced another strip-sack of Minshew that his teammate picked up for a Cleveland touchdown on a fumble recovery in the end zone.

The teams kept exchanging scores in the fourth quarter, though the Colts failed on some chances to put the game away. They even got a go-ahead 75-yard touchdown to Michael Pittman Jr., the second time this year he got a big YAC play for a touchdown.

But the Colts punted back to Cleveland and Walker with 2:35 left, and the defense failed to put the game away. There was a strip-sack that would have done the trick, but an illegal contact penalty wiped that out in the red zone. But the next play is the scrutinized one as defensive pass interference was called on what clearly looked like an uncatchable ball in the back of the end zone:

I think that’s a really bad call against the Colts. On the other hand, a no-call would have made it 2nd-and-goal from the 8 with 33 seconds left. Not exactly a game over situation. But still, it made things easier from the 1-yard line, and it looked like Cleveland was going to botch it by throwing 3 times in a row instead of running. I know they didn’t have timeouts but play the percentages. The run is more likely going to work than Walker throwing.

On 4th-and-goal, the Browns finally ran and Kareem Hunt barely broke the plane with 15 seconds left. The Browns failed on the 2-point conversion, but it didn’t matter much at that point. Minshew was strip-sacked a third time, but the only surprise is it wasn’t Garrett again. Minshew finished with 4 turnovers for the second game in a row, though he was much better this week than last week in Jacksonville.

We’ll see where these teams finish and if this quarter proves decisive for playoff seeding. But what a wild game, and a complicated one in trying to figure out how well Minshew is playing, and how great the Cleveland defense is this year.

Also, the Browns have a huge Watson problem, but that’s a story for another day. It just amuses me that Kevin Stefanski can maximize every quarterback in his offense except the one who is supposed to be the best. Maybe that’s just karma.

Packers at Broncos: From Favre-Elway to Rodgers-Manning to THIS

Boy, if this is what it takes for Denver to win a home game under Sean Payton, then enjoy it, because there aren’t going to be many more of these wins. Green Bay flopped off its bye week with a scoreless first half, but it took Denver 2.5 quarters to find the end zone too.

Green Bay was much stronger in the second half, not unlike the 17-0 comeback against the Saints this year, and the Packers scored on three straight drives to take a 17-16 lead with 8:31 left. You had to start thinking this wasn’t Denver’s year when touchdowns like this on 4th-and-2 are happening to them:

It starts to make sense why Denver has lost 10 games in a row after having the lead at halftime. But this would not be No. 11. In fact, by coming back with a field goal drive to win the game, Denver made sure Green Bay was the first team to blow 3 fourth-quarter leads this season.

Russell Wilson did not have a great game, but he got the offense close enough for Wil Lutz to bang in his fourth field goal from 52 yards away to take a 19-17 lead with 3:50 left. That was plenty of time for Jordan Love to answer, but I think conservative calls once the Packers reached Denver territory combined with a holding penalty short-circuited the drive.

Love’s accuracy issues showed up on a 2nd-and-20 incompletion to Christian Watson, which saw the receiver go down with an apparent knee injury. On 3rd-and-2, Love just threw one up and it was intercepted to essentially end the game. The Broncos ran out every second of the clock and escaped with the 19-17 win.

Green Bay has lost back-to-back games in which it did not allow 20 points, which has not happened to the Packers since 2005 when Aaron Rodgers was a rookie on the bench. If only there was a quarterback of that caliber waiting in the wings on this Green Bay bench.

Steelers at Rams: When Coming Up Short Is Enough to Win the Game

Yes, the Steelers started the game with a 3-and-out, they had only one field goal at halftime, and T.J. Watt bailed them out with a great interception to start the third quarter, setting up a 7-yard touchdown drive.

All those things made it look like Matt Canada was perfectly representing his brand in LA after a bye week. But for the rest of the game, the Steelers actually looked like a competent offense that could get the ball to its best receivers about as well as Matthew Stafford got the ball to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.

While Nacua (154 yards) had a monster day, Kupp did not, catching 2-of-7 targets for 29 yards with a couple of early drops that seemed to set him up for a bad day – if it wasn’t my bets that did him in since I am a proven jinx of the highest order. Kupp’s only real contribution was on a 2-point conversion to put the Rams up 17-10.

You have to go back to Week 6 of the 2020 season to find the last time a defense held Kupp under 30 yards in a game he did not leave injured. That was against the 49ers, and he had 11 yards on 3 catches and 9 targets. This was shocking for a Pittsburgh defense that has been awful against top receivers. But Stafford and Kupp did not bring their A game for this one.

Neither did kicker Brett Maher, who missed a pair of field goals from 51 and 53 yards away in this game. Again, as someone who led a picks article off this week with Rams over 1.5 made field goals, I can’t help but feel like a total f’n jinx.

And it’s not like I did these things to root for the Steelers to win. I barely wanted to watch this game and was flipping between the Chiefs-Chargers on CBS and the RedZone channel, because I’ve grown to hate watching Canada’s offense that much.

But in Diontae Johnson’s return game from injury, he made the crucial play on a 3rd-and-8 to start the fourth quarter. He turned a short throw into a 39-yard gain. He may never score a touchdown again with Kenny Pickett as his quarterback, but he is good for a play like that from time to time. Pickett also started looking sharper on his throws to George Pickens in the second half.

The Johnson play set up Jaylen Warren for a 13-yard touchdown run to tie the game. Pickens and Johnson had big catches to set up Najee Harris for a 3-yard go-ahead touchdown run with 7:20 left.

Pittsburgh’s defense held after Stafford threw 3 straight incompletions from his 43. The Steelers had 5:28 to burn and they shockingly did it. Pickens had a 31-yard gain on a 3rd-and-3. A taunting penalty on the Steelers, something they had a few of in this game on the receivers, negated what would have been a terrible defensive pass interference penalty on the Rams on 3rd-and-8. Replaying the down, the Steelers came up 1 yard short.

Mike Tomlin had to go for the 4th-and-1 at the Los Angeles 39 with a chance to win the game. The Rams were out of timeouts and only 2:24 remained. The Steelers ran their own version of the Tush Push, and Pickett looked like he was short. The chains were brought out, and shockingly, he was just over the marker for the game-clinching first down.

The Rams were hosed.

If you watch any good replay, you can see Pickett slipped and his knee was down very quickly after getting the ball. He was short of the marker, but the refs blew the spot. Since it was outside of the 2-minute warning and the Rams were out of timeouts, Sean McVay could not challenge the play. It is not 100% certain they would have reserved the call on the field even if he did have a challenge, but he would have had a decent case of getting the ball back with a solid 2:00 to play.

It’s not even the most egregious late-game officiating blunder in a game involving Sean McVay (ask Saints fans). Remember, the Steelers were up 24-17 and Stafford would have needed to drive 60 yards for a touchdown to tie or a 2-point conversion to take the lead. But it was still a pretty bad spot and cheap ending to a game that turned out more decent than expected.

The Steelers are 4-2, and if not for coming up short to win a game, this might be viewed as their most legitimate win this season. But here they are, continuing to win games without playing their best. It shouldn’t be sustainable but given the schedule and if the health of players like Watt and Pickens allow for it, this team is going to win 9-10 games and be in the playoff mix with the rest of the AFC North.

Falcons at Buccaneers: NFC South of Heaven

The Falcons (4-3) are back in first place in the NFC South after a 16-13 win in Tampa Bay, but the game served as a solid reminder of why this is still a bad division and the NFC East runner-up is likely to notch a playoff win against the eventual winner here.

I was on Atlanta to win because I trust the offense’s ability to move the ball more than I do Tampa Bay’s right now. I may not trust the Falcons to put many drives in the end zone, but what can you say about a Tampa Bay team that has now lost 25-11 (Eagles), 20-6 (Lions), and 16-13 at home this season?

I don’t even know if I feel like commenting on the Bijan Robinson shenanigans, but it sure does look suspicious when a player who was not on the injury report has a surprise illness, then sits out most of the game until they decide to give him a carry for 3 yards with 33 seconds left in the game. What the hell was that?

But both teams made the kind of mistakes in crunch time that make them hard to trust come January. Desmond Ridder had an efficient passing stat line, but with a chance to put the game away with a touchdown run to go up 20-10, he got a little soft at the end of the run and fumbled through the end zone with 6:30 left to keep it a 13-10 game. Huge mistake.

But Baker Mayfield made a bigger mistake in field goal range with 3:46 left:

It’s plays like that that made trusting him in Tampa Bay hard this year. But did he do the Tom Brady thing and take advantage of another opportunity after his defense forced the 3-and-out? Yes, the Buccaneers drove right down the field again into kicking range. But they weren’t able to get the touchdown after a 3rd-down sack of Mayfield inside the 10, and it did not help that he threw two incompletions before that to save clock for Atlanta in a tied game.

Ridder had 2 timeouts and 45 seconds, which we know is plenty of time in this league for these kickers. After almost hooking up with Kyle Pitts for a big play, the two did it again for a bigger one at 39 yards, and that basically set up the kick. After a couple of runs, Younghoe Koo came out and drilled the field goal from 51 yards out to give Atlanta a 16-13 win.

Neither of these teams will be feared in January but remember this quarter when it comes to figuring out which one gets to host the playoff game for the NFC South.

Cardinals at Seahawks: If a Bear Shits in the Woods…

Did anyone really care that this game was going on, or that the Seahawks were in a dogfight for most of the day as an 8.5-point favorite before covering late? I think we’re over the Joshua Dobbs experimental part of the season and would prefer to see Kyler Murray return even if he is likely not in the future plans for this franchise.

Kenneth Walker failing to score twice from the 1-yard line was more of my success as a jinx against myself. The Seahawks ended up settling for a field goal and 17-10 lead, and the game stayed that way for roughly 20 minutes. Matt Prater was wide left on a 34-yard field goal for the Cardinals with 11:06 left. Later, a fake punt doomed the Cardinals, only gaining 4 yards on 4th-and-9 with 4:58 left.

Seattle, which played without D.K. Metcalf (ribs), finally put it away from there with a 48-yard field goal with 2:17 left to make it 20-10. Dobbs was sacked on a 4th-and-11 at midfield to end the game.

I know the Seahawks (4-2) are currently the No. 5 seed in the NFC, but I just can’t muster up much interest in games with Arizona right now.

Raiders at Bears: Just Put McDaniels Out of His Misery

Once again, we must figure out which is the most embarrassing loss for Josh McDaniels with the Raiders:

  • Was it when he blew a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter to Arizona after Kyler Murray needed 20 seconds of scrambling to convert a 2-point conversion?
  • Was it losing to Jeff Saturday in his first game as interim coach of the Colts when he had no previous coaching experience in the NFL or college football? Saturday never won another game.
  • Was it when he blew a 16-3 lead in the fourth quarter to Baker Mayfield, who signed with the Rams 48 hours before the game?

Or is it when McDaniels lost 30-12 and wire-to-wire to a 1-5 Chicago team that was an underdog with an undrafted rookie quarterback nicknamed T-Bag?

No matter which one you choose, the fact that there are this many contenders just 24 games into McDaniels’ tenure should tell us that he should be fired as this is not working out.

Another sign it’s not working out: Raiders have not scored 20 points on offense in any game this season. They only reached 21 points against the Patriots last week on a safety. This is the longest streak to start a season since the 2009 Redskins made it 8 games without 20 offensive points.

I’m not even sure pointing out Brian Hoyer started for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo is that noteworthy. Did I mention the Bears started Tyson Bagent? Hoyer is McDaniels’ guy going back to the Patriots. He knows his offense. He just didn’t execute it well against one of the worst defenses in the league. Meanwhile, the Bears kept things easy for Bagent with short throws, and he managed the game well while D’Onta Foreman scored 3 touchdowns.

The NFL can do better than giving second head coaching jobs to people like Dennis Allen (Saints) and McDaniels when it was so bad on the first try. It was not a fluke that it did not work out the first time, and coaching under Sean Payton and Bill Belichick is not a proven path to coaching well on your own.

Commanders at Giants: You Can’t Spell “Sack Machine” Without S-A-M

Both offenses are lousy at blocking, but I picked the Giants because I figured Tyrod Taylor would manage the pressure better than Sam Howell, and this Jack Del Rio-coached defense is worse than what the Giants have.

There were 10 sacks in the game, but Washington (6) took more, and Taylor did help his team to a 14-0 lead where they just had to hang on for the second half. But this game was FUGLY. There were more possessions (27) than points (21).

The Commanders may have been scoreless if the Giants didn’t muff a punt and set up a 21-yard field for Washington’s only touchdown. But that was it for the scoring. The Giants blocked a 27-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter, Saquon Barkley lost a fumble inside the 10 yard line on the next drive, and Jahan Dotson dropped a 4th-and-5 pass that he had a shot at catching inside the 5-yard line with under a minute left. The Giants took knees to end it from there.

For as bad as the offenses were, at least the final quarter was interesting. But I don’t know how much longer Washington can go before Howell is injured or replaced. He is on pace for 97 sacks this season.

Next week: A trio of prime-time games with Bucs-Bills, Bears-Chargers, and Lions-Raiders? This season really hates the viewers. The closest we get to “good” games this week involve the AFC North with Steelers-Jaguars, Bengals-49ers, and Browns-Seahawks, and chances are at least one will be a total rout.

NFL Week 7 Predictions: Take the Over Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

It’s not that the NFL’s Week 7 schedule is filled with great games, but I like it because each time slot has something that could be really good on Sunday. Lions-Ravens highlights 1 p.m., Chargers-Chiefs is my favorite division rivalry to watch this decade in the 4:25 slot, and the Sunday night game might finally be a great one with the Dolphins taking on the Eagles. If that game doesn’t go over 50 points, I’ll be surprised (and disappointed).

That’s my other talking point this week in that I expect it to be a good week for overs. Why? Last week was incredible for unders with a 12-2-1 record. This was similar to Week 1 when the under was 12-4. What happened in Week 2? The over was 13-3. It’s an up-and-down league, especially this year.

We already saw a taste of this Thursday night when the Jaguars beat the Saints 31-24, the first over to hit in New Orleans’ last 13 games. You still have to play the matchups, but when in doubt, think over this week.

This Week’s Articles:

Patrick Mahomes Through 100 Starts: The Best Quarterback Ever? – A deep dive into Mahomes after 100 starts, where he stacks up historically, and if he’ll be adding any more hardware this season.

NFL Week 7 Predictions

Honestly, I don’t know why I backed the Saints on Thursday night. I had Jaguars +3 early in the week if you click on my prime-time picks above, so I don’t know what made me change it. Drew Brees wasn’t walking out that tunnel on Thursday night. It was Derek Carr with more interest in throwing to Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill than his trio of wide receivers.

Did I pick 7/13 underdogs to cover and 5 to win outright? That’s what happens when so many teams look evenly matched and few teams stand out above the pack.

Wouldn’t it be such a #RandomNFL thing for the Browns to beat the 49ers with P.J. Walker but lose to the Colts with Deshaun Watson back? I almost picked it outright, but we’ll go with an Indy cover. The Colts join the Dolphins and Lions as the only teams to score 20 points in every game this season. Cleveland’s defense is awesome but it’s not the 1985 Bears or 2000 Ravens.

I like the Giants to blitz and sack Sam Howell a lot to push him closer to 100 sacks this year.

I think there’s real value in picking Mac Jones to go way under his passing yards in this game or the next as the Patriots are probably going to be 1-7 after playing Buffalo and Miami, and he is getting benched for Malik Cunningham any quarter now.

I’m staying far away from that CHI-LV game. Check that, I’ll bet on Tyson Bagent to score a TD (+700), but that’s about it.

I think Lions can nip the Ravens in the 4Q in a 3-point game in Baltimore. Looking forward to that one. I have Jahmyr Gibbs scoring his first NFL TD.

I have Cooper Kupp dominating the Steelers with over 100 yards and a TD.

After all the criticism over Geno Smith this past week, I think he has a big game and Seahawks win easily.

I have a lot of KC-LAC research in the links above. I expect another very good game between these two. I have Rashee Rice going over with a TD. Kelce has to score a TD on National Tight Ends Day, right? He had 3 in his last game against the Chargers. Gerald Everett might even redeem himself after last year’s pick-6 disaster when he was winded in KC.

I picked the Broncos to intercept Jordan Love and finally get a home win under Sean Payton (0-3).

Already wrote my Miami upset pick in the above link, and I think the 49ers bounce back with a comfortable win over Kirk Cousins on a Monday night without Justin Jefferson.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

~ Scott ~ 15 Comments

I had my reservations about the Week 7 schedule going into the weekend, and it is hard to say that wasn’t justified with the results. There was a lot of sloppy football on Sunday with the Bills and Eagles, the leaders in each conference, enjoying a bye week.

We had a season-low seven games with a comeback opportunity, and there were only two lead changes in the fourth quarter. One even involved a game with the Raiders-Texans that was decided by 18 points.

If Sunday is remembered for anything, it would have to be a new low point in the careers of Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, which just so happens to be occurring simultaneously. While both have had plenty of games worse than how they played individually on Sunday, it’s the continuation of a rough stretch since they met in a 14-12 oddity in Week 3 that is the reason why we can call this their lowest point in the NFL. Both are floundering on 3-4 teams that have fallen further than expected this year.

The NFL would be up shit creek if it did not have a rivalry between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen to promote.  

At least, that’s one of the main things I took away from Sunday.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at 49ers: Not a Super Rematch

Patrick Mahomes DGAF what “sharp money” says about his team’s chances, especially going on the road after a tough loss to Buffalo. This is exactly the kind of game the Chiefs tend to dial in for when people start doubting them. While I understood the tactical advantages to the 49ers having a real shot in this one with them getting some of their best players back and adding Christian McCaffrey after a big trade, there’s still that glaring mismatch of Mahomes vs. Jimmy Garoppolo.

It showed up here again even if Mahomes was intercepted on his first drive and the 49ers quickly built a 10-0 lead. Of course, the Chiefs are no strangers to coming back from 10-point deficits early.

Of the eight drives Mahomes played against what is supposed to be a top-tier defense, he threw for 423 yards, led six touchdown drives, one missed field goal from 39 yards before halftime, and that early pick off a deflection. Incredible stuff from this offense that nearly got three 100-yard receivers as Travis Kelce was just two yards shy of joining JuJu Smith-Schuster (124) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (111). 

The Chiefs finally hit on that deep ball to MVS for 57 yards, and it could not have come in a more critical moment than in the fourth quarter on a third-and-11 after the 49ers had cut the lead to 28-23. That led to another touchdown and 35-23 lead on Mecole Hardman’s third touchdown of the game on a jet sweep. Four snaps later, you could see Garoppolo in immediate trouble with edge pressure from Frank Clark, resulting in a sack and safety in the end zone. JuJu scored another touchdown to make it 44-23, blowout city. The Chiefs were 6-of-7 on third down with Mahomes, including four of their five biggest gains in the game (57, 45, 34, and 27 yards).

Let’s just say Garoppolo did not show up around the end zones. Not only did he have the safety, but he had a brutal red-zone pick earlier in the game when the 49ers were down 14-13 late in the second quarter. The Chiefs had one interception on defense all season and left this game with two more.

When the Chiefs play like they did against Arizona, Tampa Bay, and this game, which were all on the road, they look like the best team in the NFL. Certainly the best offense, and not one you’d ever think to bring up Tyreek Hill’s absence for. This is why if they have to travel to Buffalo for an AFC Championship Game, you can trust that they’ll be competitive and give themselves a good chance to win.

Since losing 27-3 to the Titans last year to start 3-4, the Chiefs have had a fourth-quarter lead or tie in 20 straight games. Now they get to enjoy the bye week and get ready for some Tennessee revenge on SNF at home in Week 9.

The 49ers (3-4) are going to have better days with McCaffrey fitting into the offense well after he learns the complete playbook, and the defense won’t see another quarterback or offense this good the rest of the regular season.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Does Tom Brady Suck Enough to Retire Yet?

In 2014, Tom Brady infamously said “When I suck, I’ll retire.” Well, he didn’t do that after the 2019 season where he finished 4-5 down the stretch and threw a pick-six in the playoffs on his final pass with the Patriots. He came back for more with Tampa Bay, and enough things went his way to win a seventh Super Bowl immediately.

But instead of retiring in the perfect spot on top with nothing else to prove, he had to come back for more in 2021. Getting shut out 9-0 to Taysom Hill and the Saints in prime time ended his MVP bid, and the Rams ended his repeat dream in the divisional round game that would have been a fitting end to his career.

But retirement lasted just 40 days so that he can come back to a team with downgrades at coach, tight end, offensive line, and healthy receivers. But hey, who doesn’t want to piss off their family so they can pad the passing totals into unreachable territory for a 3-4 team that’s fading fast?

Good thing the NFC South and the NFC in general are this bad, but this has to be the lowest point of Brady’s 23-year career. He is 3-4 for the first time since 2002, his first full season as a Week 1 starter for New England. But in the last two weeks, Brady has lost as a 9.5-point favorite in Pittsburgh to a rookie quarterback and Mitch Trubisky, and now he’s lost as a 13.5-point favorite to a Carolina team that wasn’t expected to win more than a game or two after firing the head coach and trading away star running back Christian McCaffrey.

Brady had two other losses (2012 Arizona and 2019 Miami) as a favorite of 13.5+, but at least those games were competitive late. This was a 21-3 embarrassment unlike anything we have seen in Brady’s career.

Tampa Bay had zero turnovers, zero missed field goals, and they only had four penalties for 30 yards. So, it wasn’t even some fluky upset where they kept coughing up the ball, or got railroaded by officials, or the kicker went insane and kept missing. None of that. Tampa Bay was forced to punt six times on the first eight drives, and it was stopped twice on fourth down in the game.

However, the third play of the game seemed to set the tone for the day to follow. Brady had Mike Evans wide open for a 64-yard touchdown, but the veteran inexplicably dropped the ball. The drive ended in a punt, which would become common the rest of the way.

Watching that play on RedZone, I was shocked but also just figured they were going to destroy this team if receivers like Evans are getting that open. However, it was seriously the best touchdown opportunity the Bucs had all game long. Carolina just kept stopping them cold as Brady’s low passes and throws short of the sticks just failed to keep any drives going. Leonard Fournette was also stopped on a fourth-down run in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, Carolina backup P.J. Walker made confident throws and did not get greedy in turning the ball over on risky plays. He led three touchdown drives to give the Panthers a stunning 21-3 upset.

The Buccaneers are the first team since the 2009 Steelers to lose consecutive games outright as a favorite of at least 9.5 points. They are the only team on record (since 1978) to do it without turning the ball over in either game.

In fact, this is the second time in Brady’s career he lost a game by at least 18 points despite zero turnovers. He also lost 34-10 to the Titans in 2018.

Last week was a different kind of crazy in Pittsburgh, but this was just downright embarrassing against arguably the worst team in the NFL.

We knew there were signs before the season started that things would not be as good as they were in 2020-21. We knew in Week 1 that not everything was okay. But who would have guessed that after Brady and Aaron Rodgers met in a weird 14-12 game in Week 3 that the last month would play out the way it has for both?

We are witnessing the lowest points of their careers at the same time.

Packers at Commanders: When the Cat Starts Missing the Litter Box…

I thought Washington (+4.5) had a decent shot in this with the way the Packers have been slumping and the fact that Taylor Heinicke led the offense to 430 yards in a matchup last year, the team’s second-most yards in a game in the last five seasons. Green Bay won that one 24-10 because Heinicke just could not finish in the red zone at all.

But after seeing Heinicke start this game so inaccurately and throwing a pick-six to fall behind 14-3, it was absolutely shocking to see him outplay and beat Aaron Rodgers in the end. Once Heinicke settled down, he started making plays and used his legs to keep many plays alive. Terry McLaurin also put in a spirited effort with 73 yards and a touchdown.

Washington led 20-14 in the fourth quarter and the defense was able to stop Rodgers on a fourth-and-1 pass that should have been caught by Romeo Doubs, but it was right at the marker, and he couldn’t come up with it. Washington added a field goal for a 23-14 lead, then Rodgers answered with a touchdown on a drive aided by multiple penalties.

Heinicke almost ran the clock out on the Packers, but Rodgers got it back for one more chance in a 23-21 game with 23 seconds left. One big pass to Sammy Watkins for 28 yards and a spike seemed to set up another Hail Mary finish. At least, that probably would have been the smartest play for Rodgers. Instead, from 54 yards out the Packers seemed to believe they could pull off a series of laterals to score. It was very amusing and lasted longer than most attempts, but oddly enough it was Rodgers’ lateral to a lineman along the sideline that went awry, and the game ended. It wouldn’t have counted either way as the Packers were penalized for an illegal blindside block earlier on the play.

The Packers finished 0-for-6 on third down, their first game without a conversion since Brett Favre led the Packers into Denver in a 31-10 loss in 1999.

This is a lot of bad firsts for Rodgers and coach Matt LaFleur as of late:

  • Between January’s 13-10 playoff loss and Week 1’s 23-7 loss, that was the first time in Rodgers’ career where he did not throw a touchdown pass in consecutive starts.
  • Rodgers beat Tampa Bay 14-12, the first time in his career he won a game where he scored fewer than 20 points and was shut out in the second half.
  • Rodgers threw his second career pick-six at home against the Patriots, a game they had to win in overtime against the 9.5-point underdog and their third-string rookie quarterback.
  • Matt LaFleur was 22-0 SU as a favorite of at least 6 points before losing in back-to-back weeks to the Giants (+8) and Jets (+7.5).
  • The 27-10 loss to the Jets is the worst regular-season home loss that Rodgers started and finished in his career.
  • Now you have Sunday’s game as the first in 234 starts where the Packers failed to convert a third down under Rodgers.
  • The Packers are 3-4 after seven games for the first time in the Rodgers era (they were 3-3-1 in 2018).
  • Rodgers has also not passed for over 260 yards in nine straight starts, the longest streak of his career.

What a great time for the Packers (3-4) to be on Sunday Night Football against rested Buffalo next week. But you can see why this would easily be the low point of Rodgers’ career.

Steelers at Dolphins: Maybe Don’t Draft a QB with “Pick” In His Name?

After he lost to the Jets, I said Kenny Pickett had about the most encouraging three-interception debut a quarterback could have in the NFL.

After he lost 38-3 in Buffalo, I said Picket had about the most encouraging 35-point blowout loss in his first start that a quarterback could have.

After Pickett became the 28th quarterback since the 1970 merger to throw at least seven interceptions in his first four NFL games, I’m not so sure how encouraged I still am about him.

Pickett is the first quarterback since Ryan Leaf (1998) to throw at least seven interceptions and fewer than three touchdown passes in his first four NFL games. Yikes.

I could brush off literally all three picks against the Jets since they involved tipped balls and a Hail Mary. Even the bad throw in Buffalo was him being desperate down multiple touchdowns late in the half. Then the first pick on Sunday night was a play where Chase Claypool just fell.

But those last two picks in the fourth quarter of a winnable 16-10 game? Ugly stuff from the rookie to waste a good defensive effort over the last three quarters after it looked like the Steelers were going to get blown out on the road again. In fact, this is only the third NFL game in the last five seasons (2018-22) with no points scored after halftime.

I don’t want to make it sound like Pickett was 100% at fault for the loss. Things could have been much different if the defense did not drop three or four of the gift-wrapped interceptions Tua Tagovailoa threw their way. I guess someone has to keep up the lucky QB in the AFC East reputation.

In a frustrating second half for both sides, Pickett continued to get chances in a 16-10 game, thanks in large part to a bad sequence of play calls by Miami coach Mike McDaniel when he probably should have kicked a field goal to go up 19-10 in the third quarter.

But it seemed like Pickett was going to be able to put together a go-ahead touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter. But the Steelers were did in by an illegal shift and holding penalty to bring up third-and-16 at the Miami 30. Pickett thought he had something, but the Dolphins just jumped the route and had a big pick.

Getting the ball back with 2:31 left, Pickett had his second shot at hero. After a great fourth-down strike to his tight end Pat Freiermuth for 21 yards, it again seemed like he was going to pull this off. But after bypassing a chance to run for good yardage in the final 25 seconds, Pickett let rip a horrible decision to no Steeler receiver in sight for a game-ending interception at the goal line with 18 seconds left.

These are growing pains many rookies go through. Peyton Manning (1998) is famously on that list of quarterbacks with a lot of picks in their first four games as he actually threw 11 interceptions in his first four games. But if Pickett continues to have the turnovers while only leading the Steelers to about 12 points per four quarters of action, then I think it’s safe to say he’s going to end up more like Ryan Leaf than Peyton Manning in the NFL. At least Manning was breaking the rookie records for passing yards and touchdowns when he threw the 28 interceptions in 1998. He also showed a clear improvement in his final 10 games compared to the first six.

Things are not going to get any easier for Pickett with a trip to 6-0 Philadelphia next week. Meanwhile, the Dolphins remain a curious team after getting blanked in the second half and having some questionable clock management and decision making. It is still an incredible outlier that the Dolphins scored 28 points in the fourth quarter of the comeback win over Baltimore when they have failed to score more than 21 points in any of their other six full games.

The quarterback injuries can only work so far as an excuse for McDaniel. With the way Tua took on some contact for several hits on Sunday night, it may not be long before we are talking about injury again at that position.

Giants at Jaguars: The Best Game on Sunday?

Who could have imagined a game between two of the NFL’s worst franchises in recent years would be the best-played game in Week 7? I am not saying it is up there with Bills-Chiefs from last week, but this is the kind of game you should want to see more often.

Both teams moved the ball very well with each finishing with 27 first downs and just above 430 yards. In fact, it’s criminal the over 43.5 points did not hit in this 23-17 game as it’s only the 34th game in NFL history where both teams had 27 first downs and 430-plus yards of offense. It is the first time one of these games ended with fewer than 52 points.

But the game only had one sack and one turnover. There were three fourth-down stops. A few less penalties (21) would be nice, especially if we can ease up on the roughing the passer, but each side got a generous one.

Once it was going to be a tight game in the fourth quarter, you should have known the Jaguars were in trouble. The Giants used to be the terrible fourth-quarter team, but not this year under Brian Daboll. The Jaguars are historically terrible in any game where they don’t lead wire-to-wire and allow more than 20 points.

With the Jaguars leading 17-13 in the fourth quarter, I can’t knock Doug Pederson’s decision to go for it. But Trevor Lawrence was stopped on a badly executed quarterback sneak. Sure enough, the Giants took that stop as another opportunity for the offense to go on its fifth game-winning drive of 2022.

The Giants showed Lawrence how the QB sneak is done as they used it on the go-ahead touchdown run with 5:31 left. I can’t believe this is a real stat, but Daniel Jones is the first quarterback in NFL history to lead five game-winning drives in the first seven games of the season. There were 16 other quarterbacks to do it four times, but never 5-of-7 before this run.

With quarterback play down around the league and Jones using his legs so well – he rushed for 107 yards and the winning touchdown in this one – he is now up to No. 6 in QBR (62.6) in 2022. For real.

After the Jaguars went three-and-out, the Giants could have run out the clock, but Saquon Barkley accidentally went out of bounds to save the Jaguars some time, which was almost costly after the Giants tacked on a field goal to take a 23-17 lead.

But Lawrence had 64 seconds left to do something great. He marched the Jaguars down to the New York 17 where he fired a pass to Christian Kirk near the goal line, but the Giants showed great tackling to prevent him from reaching out for the end zone as time expired. The Jaguars were inches away from their biggest win in quite some time.

Instead, the Jaguars have now lost 39 games in a row when allowing more than 20 points. Lawrence is 1-19 when the Jaguars allow more than 11 points in a game. Lawrence is also 1-10 at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities and 2-11 at all game-winning drive opportunities, the worst records among active starters.

Before this season, Jones was the guy at the bottom of those lists with his 3-14 (.176) record at GWD opportunities. Now he is 5-1 this year, doing it in historic fashion. So, that leaves hope for Lawrence to turn it around, but this was another winnable game where he came up, quite literally, short.

Colts at Titans: AFC South Supremacy

The Colts have not won the AFC South since 2014 and it is looking like that streak will continue for another year after a fifth-straight loss to the Titans. This loss may be the worst yet because it’s not like the Tennessee offense was anything special with four field goals. The Titans finally scored their first fourth-quarter points of 2022, but they were just two field goals.

It looked like Matt Ryan and the offense figured something out last week with the quick passing game against the Jaguars. But even with their best runner (Jonathan Taylor) and receiving back (Nyheim Hines) returning to action, the offense fared worse than it did against the Titans a few weeks ago.

Ryan was panicking again at the thought of getting hit in the pocket, so he tried to throw a hot route that was intercepted for a touchdown in the first half. His second pick was also the result of trying to not get hit. Even after getting a gift fumble from Ryan Tannehill at midfield in the fourth quarter of a 16-7 game, the best the Colts could do was drive 24 yards for a field goal.

After the Titans matched it to make it 19-10, Michael Pittman fumbled a pass that was close to being incomplete and the Titans ran out the clock with their closer, Derrick Henry, who had 128 yards on the ground.

The Colts are going to be in ninth or 10th place in the AFC going into Week 8, but there is zero reason to trust this team right now.

Lions at Cowboys: Oh, So the Lions Can’t Score Anymore?

This game is one of those great examples of why you just cannot use the final score to judge the closeness of a game. Anyone betting Detroit +6.5 had to be sick on this one as it was the right side for 57 minutes. The Lions were either tied, in the lead, or trailed by no more than 4 points for the first 57 minutes of this turnover-plagued mess of a 24-6 loss as apparently Detroit is done playing historic shootouts after four games.

It did not help that top receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown left after one catch in the first half. But Jared Goff finished with four turnovers (two picks, two fumbles). Still, the costliest turnover of them all may have belonged to running back Jamaal Williams, who coughed the ball up on a first-and-goal at the 1-yard line in the fourth quarter with the Lions down 10-6.

Goff was intercepted on the next drive and the Cowboys turned that into another Ezekiel Elliott touchdown and 17-6 lead. Goff then lost another fumble on a strip-sack and the Cowboys turned that into the final touchdown with Dak Prescott getting his first of the season through the air in his return game.

The Lions have gone from leading the NFL in scoring through four games to six points in their last eight quarters. I guess that’s not that surprising with the injuries and Goff being Goff, but I really thought the Lions could be better than a 1-5 team that only beats Carson Wentz.

As for Dallas, let’s give Prescott some time to catch up. This wasn’t pretty by any means, but if he finds his 2021 groove to go with this defense, then Dallas may have something here.  

Browns at Ravens: When Both Teams Want to Choke

What do you do with two teams who can’t seem to hold on to leads and close games out? The Browns had blown a league-high three leads in the fourth quarter while the Ravens have already blown three double-digit leads after halftime.

This could have been another as not even a 23-13 deficit in the fourth quarter seemed to matter to the Browns, who got one of Jacoby Brissett’s best games this season. The offense cut the lead to 23-20, then the defense forced Justice Hill to fumble just outside the red zone with 3:12 left.

Was it going to happen again? Unfortunately, Brissett is maybe the worst option this side of Trevor Lawrence to finish off a comeback like this. He did seem to have a go-ahead touchdown pass, but Amari Cooper, another suspect player in clutch moments, was penalized for offensive pass interference to wipe out a 34-yard score. That also made the field goal 10 yards longer, and a brutal false start made it 5 yards further than that.

Rookie kicker Cade York continues to be put in difficult situations to kick critical field goals for this team. He made the game winner in Carolina in Week 1, but his 60-yard field goal was blocked by the Ravens here. I felt that the play ended several seconds before the two-minute warning, only to see the clock tick down to 1:59, costing the Browns a clock stoppage. The Ravens are up there with the Eagles for games where the home cooking on the clock operator has stood out to me over the years. However, it is possible the TV angle made this look worse as it didn’t show the ball bouncing around or when the play was finally dead. Still, it looked fishy to me as the players they showed weren’t reacting like the play was still live.

In the end, the Browns used their last remaining timeout to force a three-and-out and get the ball back with 16 seconds. The last play went down as a fumble by Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Ravens escaped with the win despite Lamar Jackson completing nine passes (none to Mark Andrews).

Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski is 1-11 when the Browns allow at least 23 points since 2021. His only win in that time is against Matt Rhule’s Panthers, and we know Rhule was horrible in that split.

If the Browns can’t beat the Bengals at home to avoid being 2-6 at the bye with trips to Miami and Buffalo to follow, then this team can probably forget about being relevant by the time Deshaun Watson is eligible to return. My bold prediction of Houston having a better record than Cleveland for that Week 13 meeting may not be far off after all.

Hurry-Up Finish

Finally, so I can get to bed at a reasonable time, here are some quicker thoughts on the other games in Week 7.

Falcons at Bengals: This was one I’m happy about since I let good numbers change my gut feeling and it worked out. When I sat down the other day to write a little pick for this game, I was ready to go with the Falcons (+6.5) to move to 7-0 ATS. But after seeing how little pass pressure and sacks they had generated, and the terrible 2022 numbers for corner AJ Terrell, and knowing the way Joe Burrow lights it up at home, I changed my pick to the Bengals to win by a touchdown or better.

Sure enough, Burrow passed for 196 yards in the first quarter alone. He had 344 yards at halftime, and this could have been in Norm Van Brocklin (554) territory if the Falcons were equipped to put up a fight. But there was only one touchdown in the second half as the Bengals won 35-17. Burrow finished at 481 yards but that start to the game was some 2004 Colts type of stuff. Lethal.

Atlanta finished with 13 pass attempts, becoming the 11th team since the merger to throw fewer than 14 passes despite trailing by double digits at halftime and losing by at least 17 points. It’s like they’re playing a different sport.

Jets at Broncos: A pyrrhic victory for the 5-2 Jets. They outlasted Denver’s backup quarterback Brett Rypien, 16-9, but lost emerging star rookie running back Breece Hall for the season with a torn ACL. Hall barely played in the game before the injury happened, but he still managed a 62-yard touchdown run. The Jets had no other touchdowns in the game, and the offense only had four other players that gained more than 8 yards. This is a tough injury for an offense that has little kick to it, and the defense isn’t going to feast on backup quarterbacks forever. Don’t trust the Jets as anything more than fool’s gold at this point. And don’t trust the Denver Broncos for a damn thing but a low-scoring game.

Texans at Raiders: Nothing says excitement like two 1-win teams coming out of the bye. But the Houston run defense is the gift that keeps giving as Josh Jacobs hit them up for 143 yards and three touchdowns. The 38-20 final covers up that this was close throughout with the Texans leading 20-17 going into the fourth quarter. But Jacobs scored twice in the quarter to give the Raiders a 31-20 lead, then the defense intercepted Davis Mills, who was having a solid offensive day before that, for a pick-six to make it 38-20.

The late pick-six denied Jacobs the chance to set his career high in rushing for the third week in a row. He had 144 yards against the Broncos, 154 yards against the Chiefs, and now 143 against Houston. The only player to ever rush for at least 143 yards in four consecutive games was Earl Campbell back in 1980 for the Oilers.

Fun fact: Out of Derek Carr’s 31 game-winning drives, this is the one with the largest margin of victory (18) and only the third with a MOV larger than 8 points. The Raiders are the 22nd team in NFL history, and the first since 2014 Steelers vs. Bengals, to win a game by at least 18 points after entering the fourth quarter trailing.

Seahawks at Chargers: I cannot believe these two franchises played a game that was never closer than 11 points in the fourth quarter. Seattle went up 17-0 in the first quarter and the Chargers continue to struggle and rack up injuries as Mike Williams and J.C. Jackson went down in this one. Keenan Allen was limited in his return with just two catches for 11 yards.

Geno Smith outplayed Justin Herbert, and Kenneth Walker stole the show with 168 yards and two touchdown runs. He is showing exactly why I ended up picking him for the Offensive Rookie of the Year winner in August with the expectations Rashaad Penny would get hurt and he’d take over the run-heavy offense Pete Carroll wants. So far, so good.

Next week: Either the Seahawks are going to be 5-3 or the Giants are going to be 7-1 after they meet next week in the schedule’s top game between winning teams if you can believe that. The only other potential game between winning teams is Jets vs. Patriots. What a season, and no, I don’t say that to be complimentary.

NFL Week 7 Predictions: Snoozer Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

We go from the Game of the Year last week to a prime-time slate that the NFL must have been high when they put together. No one wanted to see this shit in April, let alone late October.

I said I would nap during the island games, and so far I’m 1-for-1. What I saw of Saints-Cardinals actually wasn’t that bad in a surprisingly high-scoring game, but that had more to do with my jacked up sleeping pattern this week. I’ll stay awake for Dolphins-Steelers. Probably.

But quarterback injuries are a huge theme again this week.

Not just which players are out, but how will the guys returning from injury look? I’ll share a few thoughts on those games below in the predictions, but first, here are some of the articles I wrote this week:

NFL Week 7 Predictions

Okay, TNF was probably the most far off I’ve been about an island game this season. Still, I wonder how it goes without that bobbled pick-six the Cardinals scored.

Dak Prescott’s return: Was he just off in Week 1, or what was that all about? I think he’s going to look fine in this one, but I’m taking the Lions to cover as a precaution. I’d say we know the Lions can score but they did just get shut out before the bye week.

Taylor Heinicke takes over for Carson Wentz (finger): This one is interesting because Heinicke marched Washington up and down the field in Lambeau last year. The 430 yards of offense were the second most the team has had in any game in the last three years. They just couldn’t finish in the red zone at all. With the way the Packers have been playing, I can’t trust them in any game that isn’t at home on SNF against the Bears right now.

How the hell does Carolina score?: The game I’m planning on betting on a lot is Tampa Bay to beat Carolina by 14+ points. I know, Tampa Bay hasn’t looked right all year, but how the hell does Carolina score on this defense without Christian McCaffrey? He had most of their yards last week and they still only scored 3 points on offense. You know Brady is pissed off and won’t blow another double-digit favorite game here. Even if TB doesn’t light up the scoreboard, this could end 21-6. The Panthers haven’t been this unwatchable since 2010 Jimmy Clausen year, and at least that team had Steve Smith.

Brett Rypien replaces Russell Wilson (hamstring) vs. Jets: This one is funny cause Rypien played against the Jets in 2020 in his only other NFL start, a weird 37-28 game in prime time. A lot of people are going to jump on the Jets (4-2) bandwagon here, but I’m going against the grain and taking Denver to still win at home. I don’t trust the offense, but I trust the defense at home, and I think it’d be funny if Rypien led the offense to its best game of the season the moment Wilson goes down. Let’s root for chaos and have him light it up.

Kenny Pickett vs. Tua Tagovailoa: I thought Tua changed the concussion protocol enough to where we wouldn’t see Pickett in this game, but here we are. It’s anecdotal evidence, but my experience says fade the Steelers quarterback coming off a head injury in his next game. Look up what Tommy Maddox did against the 2002 Texans after an injury scare, look what Ben Roethlisberger did to the 2006 Raiders after a concussion, or just look at how bad the Pittsburgh offense is in general. They may not get blown out here like they have been on the road lately, but I can easily see a 24-16 loss.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

~ Scott ~ 14 Comments

I knew we were in for a rough two weeks of NFL action, but I didn’t think it would be this bad. While Week 6 only featured five games with a comeback opportunity, at least it ended on a high note on Monday night between the Bills and Titans. But in Week 7, we’ve had just three of the 12 games feature a comeback opportunity. That’s eight games in two weeks after there were 11 close games in just Week 5.

That’s why announcers need to stop playing up the number of overtime games or this cutesy stat about a record number of games where the winning points were scored in the final minute – again, something directly correlated to the overtimes. This season is not giving us many close games and I have some theories below on why that is the case.

Going into Monday night, the average margin of victory in Week 7 is 18.6 points. That ranks as the third-highest week (regular season only) since 2001, only trailing Week 7 in 2009 (20.3) and Week 15 in 2012 (18.7). As long as Seahawks-Saints is decided by at least six points, it will stay as the third-highest week in the 21st century.

Without gambling, a lot of these games would be unwatchable. Hell, even with it I’m having a hard time.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Cardinals/Rams/Bucs: Big Favorites Win in Top-Heavy NFC Race

I wrote on Saturday how big favorites (11+ points) almost never all cover the spread. It happened again as the Cardinals hit scorigami with a 31-5 win over Houston and the Bears repeatedly gave Tampa Bay a shortcut to the end zone, but the Rams had a tight one with the Lions before finally winning 28-19 in one of the only two 4QC/GWD this week. Go figure, Matthew Stafford had his 40th game-winning drive against his former team.

Stafford had a nice revenge game but hats off to Dan Campbell for coaching the Lions the way a huge underdog should approach a David vs. Goliath matchup like this. He had a surprise onside kick and fake punt in the first quarter as Detroit led 10-0. Jared Goff had arguably his best game of the season, but in the end, Goff goofed in the red zone and threw an interception to Jalen Ramsey when he had a chance to throw a go-ahead touchdown.

It did not feel like the Cardinals brought their A-game against the Texans, but the fact that they still won 31-5 and got all their main weapons, including new tight end Zach Ertz, involved for touchdowns tells you just how bad Houston is. Huge game coming up Thursday against Green Bay. Kyler Murray took a lot of big hits in this game, but he should be okay for Thursday. It’ll be a great opportunity for the Cardinals to show how serious they are as Super Bowl contenders in a prime-time game with a chance to go 8-0.

Chicago basically TKO’d itself in the first quarter in Tampa Bay, spotting Tom Brady three possessions inside the 40 in the first quarter alone. Tampa Bay ended up starting six drives inside Chicago territory in the game. Half the league came into Week 7 without six such drives on the season. It was last season when the Buccaneers had a league-high 23 drives start inside the opponent 40 when you add in the six they had in the playoffs. Now they had five such drives in this game, scoring three touchdowns and a field goal on them. Teams have no shot if they’re going to keep gifting the Bucs these short fields. I’ll be surprised if Matt Nagy survives the season in Chicago.

But this does create a very interesting NFC where the Cardinals are 7-0, the Rams and Bucs are 6-1, and the Cowboys (on a bye) are 5-1. Those four teams have only lost to each other with the Cowboys losing to a late field goal in Tampa Bay, and the Bucs were blown out by the Rams, who were blown out by the Cardinals. The Packers are also 6-1 but we’ll see how they fare against Arizona this week and the Rams in Week 12.

Chiefs at Titans: STOP THE COUNT! Kansas City Is Dazed and Confused

Was that the worst game of Patrick Mahomes’ NFL career?

It was the question we asked after the Chiefs scored 17 points and barely beat the Falcons in Week 16 last year to clinch the No. 1 seed.

Was that the worst game of Patrick Mahomes’ NFL career?

It was the question we asked after the Chiefs lost 31-9 in Super Bowl 55 against Tampa Bay, the first time Mahomes lost by more than eight points and the offense failed to score a touchdown.

Was that the worst game of Patrick Mahomes’ NFL career?

It was the question we asked after the Chiefs lost 38-20 at home to the Bills in Week 5 with Mahomes having more turnover problems in the worst home loss of his career.

Was that the worst game of Patrick Mahomes’ NFL career?

It is the question of the day after the Chiefs lost 27-3 in Tennessee, the first wire-to-wire loss in Mahomes’ career, and the answer is undoubtedly yes. This is the lowest point of the Mahomes era in Kansas City. But can it get lower?

It is not a good sign that this question about the worst game has come up four times in the last 11 starts for Mahomes. But for the first time since Week 12 against Buffalo in 2017, the Chiefs failed to hold a lead in a game. That snaps a streak of 68 straight games with a lead. The only known streak longer than that in NFL history is the first 70 starts of the Russell Wilson era in Seattle.

Never losing wire-to-wire was about the last streak the Chiefs had left. While I picked the Titans to win on Sunday, I never expected a 27-0 score at halftime, or that the Chiefs would score the only points of the second half on a field goal. Stopping Derrick Henry (29 carries for 86 yards) was about the only thing the Chiefs did well, but that seemed to make them bad against everything else as Ryan Tannehill had plenty of open receivers and time to throw, and Henry even faked a run for a touchdown pass to start the game. The Titans just beat Buffalo with great offense, but it’s not like the defense was masterful outside of stopping a couple late Josh Allen runs. But three points to the Chiefs? Really?

Sacks and turnovers led the Chiefs to self-destruct in the first half. Mahomes had another tipped interception but also lost a fumble on a scramble at midfield. The Chiefs never really threatened in the second half, and Mahomes had to leave the game after getting sandwiched on a nasty hit (but not illegal or intentionally violent) to the face as he was going down. Mecole Hardman fumbling at the Tennessee 6 to end the game and ensure that the Chiefs would not score a touchdown and have another turnover to add to their league-high total was the perfect ending for this shitshow.

The Chiefs are 3-4, in real danger of missing the playoffs, and they don’t scare any contender in the AFC anymore after losing to the Ravens, Chargers, Bills, and Titans. Of course, that tough schedule is having a big impact on this poor start to the season. The Chiefs could potentially face 11 games against playoff teams this season, which (albeit with a 17th game added in 2021) would tie the single-season record by the 1993 Buccaneers.

I’ve compared Mahomes to Peyton Manning many times already, but one thing I have repeatedly noted is that the only two ways Manning ever missed the playoffs in his career (1998 and 2001) was to have a schedule with 10 playoff teams and the worst scoring defense in the NFL. Well, the 2021 Chiefs are looking an awful lot like the 2001 Colts right now with the terrible defense and having a ton of turnovers.

Those Colts finished 6-10 and fired head coach Jim Mora, who delivered his infamous “playoffs!?” speech that season. I don’t know if these Chiefs are headed for that fate, but I do know you can no longer trust this team against any decent opponent. The invincibility is gone. The mystique is gone.

Until further notice, the Chiefs are just another struggling NFL team that’s a one-unit show on a good day and a total mess on a bad day. Sunday was another bad day, and to think it was just last December when we used to say the Chiefs never had bad games under Mahomes.

Bengals at Ravens: Biggest Cincinnati Win in How Long?

You can make the argument that the Bengals just had their biggest win in over 30 years on Sunday in Baltimore. The Bengals have not won a playoff game since the 1990 season. From 1991-2020, the Bengals had just 17 wins against teams that made the playoffs in a season where Cincinnati also made the playoffs. Winning in Pittsburgh in December 2005 was a really big deal as it helped the Bengals win the AFC North that year, but you can absolutely make the argument that this 41-17 demolition of the Ravens in Baltimore tops that one.

At worst, it’s the second-biggest Cincinnati win in over 30 years.

Remember, the Ravens were 5-1 and just got a ton of hype for beating the Chargers 34-6 a week ago. You know, last week’s hyped AFC team as this thing changes every week now.

For three quarters, this was living up to being the game of the week on paper (garbage week withstanding). Both quarterbacks were dealing with good pressure before they started to make plays down the field in a back-and-forth affair. But once Ja’Marr Chase took off for an 82-yard touchdown to highlight his monster 201-yard day, the Bengals led by double digits for the final 20 minutes.

While a much different game script, this performance from Joe Burrow (career-high 416 yards) and the offense reminds me of this 2004 game by Carson Palmer against Baltimore when he threw for 382 yards and the light seemed to click for him late in his first season as a starter. Burrow and Chase look like they have been doing this for much longer than they have, and that’s even acknowledging their one magical year together at LSU. This is one of the top duos to watch right now.

As for the Ravens, the injuries have clearly not helped this season. The defense cannot be trusted like it used to be, though I thought the Chargers performance was encouraging on that front. They went backwards this week. Still, part of me wonders if the increase in blowouts this season has something to do with the record number of fourth-down attempts we are seeing.

The Ravens were down 27-17 in the fourth quarter with 11:43 to play. They faced a 4th-and-7 at their own 38. In past years, this would almost certainly be a punt. Pin them deep, get the ball back in a few minutes down 10 and go from there. But the Ravens went for it and didn’t get it. It’s not a terrible call since giving up the field goal does not change much, but giving up a 38-yard touchdown drive to an offense that was hot basically ended the game with just over nine minutes left. I feel that in past years, John Harbaugh punts that ball and gets it back 27-17 later. But not these Ravens.

Baltimore then failed on a 4th-and-15 from their own 33, setting up another short field for the Bengals to add yet another touchdown to produce the 41-17 final. The game was closer than that score suggests, but these failed fourth downs really sparked the rout this became. I cannot say if that is happening at the league-wide level more than usual this year, but I felt the risky fourth downs deep in their own end is what sunk the Chargers so quickly (34-6) in Baltimore a week ago.

It is something to keep in mind this season as we see teams winning by huge margins quite regularly now. But I will be careful in anointing the Bengals as the team to beat in the AFC. I don’t think such a thing exists right now. These Bengals struggled like hell with the Jaguars during their 20-game losing streak just three weeks ago.

I think it’s just proof that the AFC is up for grabs, and it will not run through Kansas City like it has the last three seasons as hosts of the AFC Championship Game. And competition is a very good thing for this league. You want to see the Bengals’ fortune change after a couple smart picks at the top of the draft from LSU.

As I said in the beginning, this franchise has almost no huge wins in the last three decades. I’m okay with Cincinnati fans wanting to celebrate the hell out of this one. They just have to lose to the Jets next week and the Bizarro AFC is back on track in 2021. The days of one team dominating are over.

Hurry-Up Finish

Some quick thoughts as I have more articles to write before I get to sleep.

Washington Meets Cruel Regression

Coming into Week 7, offenses were 15-for-15 at scoring touchdowns on the Packers in the red zone. Obviously, the Packers were going to get some red-zone stops eventually this season. But the comedy of errors that led to Washington going 0-for-4 in the red zone was too much. The highlight was Taylor Heinicke doing a Lambeau Leap, since of course he idolized Brett Favre, only for the drive to end in no points after he was ruled to give himself up short of the end zone (stupid rule), and then fumbled at the goal line and was stopped short again on fourth down. Washington was a respectable 10-of-16 in the red zone this year coming into the game, but what a disastrous outing in a 24-10 loss that should have been much closer.

The Jets Backup Is the Creator of The White Lotus?

I’m not sure how the Jets came into this season with Mike White as the backup behind rookie Zach Wilson, but that was another mistake for a team that somehow remains the worst in the NFL despite getting rid of Adam Gase and Sam Darnold (a pumpkin in his own right who was benched on Sunday). The Patriots toyed with the Jets on their way to scoring 54 points (seven touchdowns and two field goals on 10 drives). Three players threw a pass, six players registered a rush, and 11 players caught a pass.

Defund the Eagles

Philly really let Derek Carr complete 31-of-34 passes with Darren Waller inactive. The Eagles might be the worst team in the NFC East. I’m still not buying the Raiders until I see them come out of this upcoming stretch (KC/CIN/DAL) with a good record intact.

Atlanta Almost Did It Again

You know it’s a weird week when the Falcons had one of the only two fourth-quarter comeback wins. Of course, it came after the team blew a 13-point lead that never should have been a 13-point lead. Someone needs to teach Arthur Smith that you go for two when up 12 in the fourth quarter. That extra point and 13-point lead kept the door open for Miami, but fortunately Matt Ryan was on point to Kyle Pitts (163 yards) and came through with a game-winning drive.

Wentz Wagon Rebuilding

As soon as I paid Carson Wentz a compliment on Twitter, he tried to throw four interceptions in the next 25 minutes. But the rain made it extra tough on the 49ers and Colts on Sunday night, and he made enough plays to get the win. It’s still the best month of his career and not one of his overrated three-or-four game stretches like the beginning of his career, the end of the 2019 season, or any of his best runs in 2017. Frank Reich’s offense is working out for him, and you just wonder if the Colts dug too big of a hole at 0-3 for it to matter this season.

Next week: Island games that look good or will they be mirages too? Can we at least get some more competitive, close games?

NFL Week 7 Predictions: Trick or Treat Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

If you thought Week 6 was bad football, take a gander at Week 7. Chiefs-Titans could be a fun shootout (read my preview here), but the only other game that comes close on paper is Bengals-Ravens, and I’m still not sure if the Bengals are ready for a game like this.

I may have lost my mind, but I really did pick 11 underdogs against the spread this week (five to win). It’s a combination of things. It’s probably an overcorrection to a Week 6 that featured a lot of blowouts. It’s also a reaction to the couple large spreads. Since 2010, favorites of 14-plus points are 39-39 ATS. Flip a coin.

Plus I just don’t love certain things like the 49ers playing without George Kittle, the Bucs without Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, and that spread in Green Bay keeps coming down that I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s -6.5 by kickoff.

I do love the revenge games for Matthew Stafford (Lions) and DeAndre Hopkins/J.J. Watt (Texans), but I feel uneasy about picking the Cardinals to cruise to 7-0 (can see Houston losing 34-17), and that Stafford game is interesting after Dan Campbell challenged Jared Goff publicly to do better this week. What better week than Rams week against Sean McVay and Stafford? Crazier things have happened, like when the Jets beat the Rams as a 17.5-point underdog last December. The Lions have given several teams a tough time this year, though that awful loss to the Bengals last week gives me pause. But I do at least love the props in this one for Stafford and for Cooper Kupp and Darrell Henderson to find the end zone. Maybe even Robert Woods and a bomb to DeSean Jackson. The full arsenal.

But one thing I wanted to look at for this week was how much should we trust those biggest favorites of the week to win? I’m talking about Arizona, Rams, and Bucs. They’re all favorites of 11 or more points, and if they come through (along with Derrick Henry), I can hit the parlay with the longest odds I’ve ever hit thanks to actually getting a correct score on TNF right (I took three stabs at it).

Since 2001, favorites of 11-plus points are 350-53-1 SU (.868) and 188-213-3 ATS.

But how safe are they to bet to win when there’s three in one week? It happened this year in Week 2 and all the favorites won. I looked at this data for 2001-present and found 46 weeks where at least three teams were favored by 11+ points. Here are their results:

  • Perfect record: 32/46 (69.6% of the time)
  • One tie: once (Week 10, 2012, thanks Jeff Fisher’s Rams vs. 49ers)
  • One loss: 11 times (4-1 once, 3-1 five times, 2-1 five times)
  • 1-2 record: twice (just happened Week 15 last year when Rams -17.5 lost to Jets and Steelers -14.5 lost to Bengals)

Ah yes, I remember Week 15 well. It’s a week where I needed the Rams and Steelers to come through as huge favorites and I would have won about $36,000. So, that’s not the week I like to think about when I’m expecting a huge Sunday (fading MNF for sure this time).

Hedge wisely just in case. And for those curious, the big favorites were perfect ATS just twice in 46 tries. Four times they were 1-3 ATS and four times they were 0-3 ATS.