2017 NFL Wild Card and Full Playoff Predictions

The Titans, Rams, Bills, and Jaguars are playing this weekend. Are we sure it’s the playoffs, or is it January 2000? I can’t help but feel that something strange is going to happen this postseason, but here we go.

Titans at Chiefs

I already did my big preview on this one at FO, so check that out. I just think the Chiefs are on a good run going into the playoffs and they should be able to get this win without too much trouble. Too much offense for the Titans to overcome on the road. Good offenses all put up 25+ on the Titans this year. This could be the start to an incredible playoff run by the Chiefs a la the 2011 Giants/2012 Ravens.

Final: Chiefs 27, Titans 17

Falcons at Rams

I think this game has the widest range of outcomes this weekend. The Falcons should have won the Super Bowl last year, and are lucky to be in the tournament this year. Don’t forget the dropped game-winning touchdown by the Bears in Week 1, the Golden Tate GW TD coming up inches short in Detroit, the way Seattle and Tampa Bay missed game-tying field goals at the end, or Drew Brees’ unthinkable pick in the red zone in a 3-point game. The Falcons can be 4-12 just as easily as 13-3 right now. It’s just been that kind of year.

Meanwhile, the Rams bring inexperience and unpredictability to the tournament. They rested starters last week, and this is all new for Sean McVay, Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, Buffalo’s wide receivers, and Aaron Donald. The Rams had the highest weekly DVOA variance this season while the Falcons had the lowest. The Rams really stomped some teams, including Seattle in Seattle, and they play great special teams and give Goff incredible field position. They also struggled to get the offense going against some better defenses like the Vikings and Seahawks (first time when they were healthy).

The matchup seems to favor the Rams in that the Falcons were 25th in QBR against play-action passes, and Goff uses play-action more than anyone. He also loves throwing to Gurley, who is on a tear, and no defense gives up more catches to running backs than the Falcons. However, Goff still worries me. He had the third-highest rate of off-target passes this year according to ESPN Stats & Info. So you’re talking about a quarterback who relies heavily on YAC and play-action in a QB-friendly system. When it comes to making big throws in big moments, the Falcons have a big edge there with Matt Ryan, who’s had a stellar run in the postseason going back to 2012 even. Sure, this season wasn’t what we thought he could do, but he really did have an epic amount of tipped interceptions and some egregious touchdown drops. He’s clearly not leading an offense as great as 2016’s, but this is still a talented bunch who can score on this defense and won’t be afraid of the big stage. It also doesn’t sound like a strong home-field advantage is going to be there for the Rams yet, but win this game and that will change too in the future.

Atlanta’s only allowed more than 26 points once this season (31 to Seattle), so I think the game can remain close. This is the smallest spread this week at 6 points, and I really think Atlanta might be the underdog to back on that front.

Final: Falcons 26, Rams 23

Bills at Jaguars

Not only are the Bills and Jaguars in the playoffs, but one of these teams is guaranteed to advance to the next round. It’s too bad LeSean McCoy isn’t 100 percent, because he’s sorely needed in this matchup. Buffalo is a low-volume passing offense to begin with, but you don’t want to throw much against the top pass defense in football when you are so limited in receiving weapons. Not only could McCoy be a threat on the ground, but he can catch a lot of passes too. He led the Bills with 59 catches, 10 more than any other teammate. I’m sure McCoy is going to suit up to give it a go, but I can’t see him being too effective after his ankle injury. Tyrod Taylor gets pressured enough as is, but throwing him against the wolves of Sacksonville? It can’t be a pretty day for this offense.

So I think the only way for Jacksonville to blow this at home is for Blake Bortles to turn the ball over multiple times (or once for a touchdown). We have called Buffalo an opportunistic defense all season long with takeaways. Tre’Davious White is not just a guy who Gronkowski delivered a cheapshot to, but the rookie was involved in a lot of takeaways this year. The Bills were actually a subpar defense (26th in yards per drive, 23rd in points), but eighth in takeaways per drive, which really helped this team win nine games to sneak into the playoffs.

Look, the Jaguars held eight teams to 0-10 points this year. That’s impressive stuff. I think they’ll hide Bortles enough this week, lean on the running game and defense, and the Jaguars will go to Pittsburgh next week for a rematch.

Final: Jaguars 24, Bills 13

Panthers at Saints

Again, I think the AFC games are pretty one-sided this week, but the NFC ones could easily go either way. The Saints got the best of Carolina in both games this year, and neither was really that close. You always hear how it’s hard to beat a team three times in one year, but it’s not so hard if you’re already 2-0. In fact, it’s the expected result as it’s happened 65% of the time in this scenario. Part of what helps there is that usually the 2-0 team gets the third game at home in the playoffs. If this game wasn’t in the Superdome, then I could see trusting Carolina a lot more. But that’s not the case since the Panthers bombed in Atlanta last week when winning the division was possible.

Neither of these teams are charging ahead into the playoffs on a good note. Both lost in Week 17. The Panthers also nearly lost to Tampa Bay in Week 16. This is a real Jekyll and Hyde team, and it starts with the erratic Cam Newton. I think he’s had some downright incredible games this year (NE, DET, MIA, GB), but then you remember the 4 losses to CHI/NO/ATL/PHI where he threw 2 TD, 11 INT. Cam actually had a career-high in rushing yards (754), but I don’t think you can really trust him to deliver in this matchup. He’s also failed to pass for 200 yards in his last three games against this defense, and he’s only topped 260 passing yards three times in 14 career matchups with the Saints. Remember, there were a lot of terrible defensive seasons from the Saints in that span. Things have certainly improved this year, but like I said before, the Saints have looked like a .500 ball club ever since that dominant 7-game winning streak where none of the games were too close.

Mix in the familiarity these teams have with each other, and I think you could see Carolina find a way to pull this one out if Newton brings his A game. He needs to get Greg Olsen involved heavily again, who hasn’t been much of a factor in an injury-plagued season.

All I know is I’m just glad to see Drew Brees in another playoff game. It’s been a while, and he’s been one of the most prolific postseason passers ever (see below). I think he’ll get the job done at home.

Final: Saints 27, Panthers 21

(That means my spread picks are KC, ATL, JAX, CAR)


2017 NFL Full Playoff Predictions

This is where I pick the whole tournament. I came pretty close last year, only missing on KC beating Pittsburgh in the divisional round, and Atlanta beating New England in the Super Bowl (d’oh). You don’t know how badly I want to pick the Chiefs to get some revenge this year by knocking off the Patriots and Steelers, two teams who eliminated them the last two years.

Wild Card:

  • Titans at Chiefs
  • Falcons at Rams
  • Bills at Jaguars
  • Panthers at Saints


  • Falcons at Eagles
  • Chiefs at Patriots
  • Jaguars at Steelers
  • Saints at Vikings

Conference Championship:

  • Steelers at Patriots
  • Falcons at Vikings

Super Bowl LII:

Patriots vs. VIKINGS

Super Bowl MVP: The home crowd in Minnesota

  • Week 1: 8-7
  • Week 2: 11-5
  • Week 3: 9-7
  • Week 4: 8-8
  • Week 5: 6-8
  • Week 6: 6-8
  • Week 7: 11-4
  • Week 8: 12-1
  • Week 9: 6-7
  • Week 10: 12-2 (Spread: 6-8)
  • Week 11: 8-6 (Spread: 8-5-1)
  • Week 12: 12-4 (Spread: 7-9)
  • Week 13: 11-5 (Spread: 10-6)
  • Week 14: 6-10 (Spread: 7-9)
  • Week 15: 14-2 (Spread: 7-6-3)
  • Week 16: 12-4 (Spread: 7-8-1)
  • Week 17: 10-6 (Spread: 8-8)
  • Season: 162-94 (Spread: 60-59-5)

2016 NFL Wild Card Predictions

It’s playoff time, so let’s start crushing bad narratives and picking winners.

Oakland at Houston

Okay, so maybe the playoffs don’t actually start until Saturday evening. We have to spend three hours watching one of these teams line up to be slaughtered in New England next week. Seriously, this is not the caliber of playoff game we have come to expect, and it’s certainly the worst on paper that I can ever recall. Of course, injuries to three different quarterbacks in the last two weeks is how we’ve gotten to Connor Cook (first start!) against Brock Osweiler. I’d like to think we’ll see a lot of DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper bailing out bad throws, but I frankly doubt either quarterback hits 250 passing yards. This needs to be a Lamar Miller game if you’re Houston, and a Khalil Mack game if you’re Oakland. Mack sacked Osweiler five times in Denver last year and had a big strip-sack in the end zone. He needs to create a splash play like that again to get some points for his team in what should be a low-scoring game. Frankly, I thought Houston should have won the matchup in Mexico City, but Bill O’Brien coached a horrible game and the referees didn’t help either. So I already think Houston, one of the worst playoff teams since 1989, had a decent shot in this matchup to begin with, but should be able to get the home win by relying on its defense against a complete unknown in Cook. Oakland’s offensive line and running backs are certainly good enough to carry Cook to a 13-10 win should that be the case, but I just feel like Oakland’s defense is not reliable enough to keep the score that low. Osweiler might also be surprisingly not horrific, and hell, he can’t be any worse than what Brian Hoyer did in this spot a year ago, right? Fuck, why are we always starting the playoffs with the Texans?

This is all Indianapolis’ fault.

Final: Raiders 13, Texans 20

Detroit at Seattle

Most of us have been trained to expect the Lions to lose this game. They already have the longest playoff losing streak in NFL history, and Seattle has clearly been one of the premiere teams in recent seasons, especially at home. However, I give Matthew Stafford a fighting chance after seeing him have a few successful moments against the Legion of Boom, which is just not the same without Earl Thomas. What do I tend to say beats Seattle? Short, quick throws combined with a willingness to make the big play down the field. That about sums up Stafford to a tee in Jim Bob Cooter’s offense. Yeah, he’s gone to a more dink-and-dunk attack, and Calvin Johnson is no longer there for the spectacular catch, but Stafford has done well to get more receivers involved and he’ll still make the occasional side-arm throw or risk that most passers won’t take. So he’s the right quarterback against Seattle without Thomas, and Eric Ebron needs to really step up since you figure Golden Tate will against his former team, and Anquan Boldin usually seizes these opportunities well. The white running back may not make much traction, but the Seahawks will respect him, including Michael Bennett.

Meanwhile, it’s really a matter of the Seahawks being able to flip the switch or not. The DVOA dynasty is dead. Seattle finished 9th in DVOA after leading the league four years in a row. Russell Wilson’s early injuries hampered his play, but the offense has still continued to sputter on the ground all year, and the recent loss of Tyler Lockett hurts. The defense has gone without Michael Bennett at times, and now Thomas is done. It’s just not going to be the same team when the superstars are not healthy. That’s just a fact of the game. So while I think Seattle should win at home, an upset wouldn’t shock me one bit. The competitive streak died at 98 games this year. The Packers completely blew this team out already. And yeah, Detroit likes to hang around in the fourth quarter, though the eight comeback wins are a little misleading. Seven of Detroit’s comebacks have been from a 1-4 point deficit, and only one was a 7-point deficit (Rams). If Seattle can get up double digits, it’s likely over, but can you really count on this offense to do that right now? Sure, the Detroit pass defense just allowed the worst completion percentage in NFL history, but you can always get Wilson to go off script and hold onto the ball, opening up the potential for sacks to stall drives. I see a pretty competitive game here, and I know the illegal bat penalty that was missed a year ago is going to be on some Lions’ minds, but I’m still going Seattle.

Final: Lions 16, Seahawks 24

Miami at Pittsburgh

I already put 3700 words down on this game for my FO preview, so please check that out. Basically, I think Pittsburgh has too many weapons for Miami to shut the offense down (unless they injure Roethlisberger again). It does sound like Ladarius Green might not play again, but the point still stands that the Steelers are at home and they’re finally healthy, so the pressure is on them to perform. As for Miami, I wouldn’t count out Matt Moore playing well, but I think Adam Gase needs to show trust in him. If the Dolphins come out trying to establish Ajayi early and often, then I think that plays into the strength of the Pittsburgh defense, and if the offense is doing its part, then the Dolphins could see things snowball quickly on the scoreboard. They have to start well and stay balanced. Pittsburgh just needs to protect the ball better and should get this win, but I sure as hell wouldn’t bet them with the 10-point spread. After all, this is a Mike Tomlin team in a game it’s expected to win comfortably. No thanks.

Final: Dolphins 17, Steelers 24

New York Giants at Green Bay

This is the most interesting game of the weekend. One that can go many different ways, and I honestly believe this could be the most pivotal game of the 2016 postseason. The winner here just might go all the way. Lambeau Field lost its postseason mystique years ago, and the Giants are a big reason for that. You know damn well Eli Manning won’t be bothered by the situation, but we have no idea how someone like Odell Beckham Jr. will handle his first playoff game. Does he go off like a Steve Smith or turtle up like a Marvin Harrison? The matchup is certainly good with Green Bay’s damaged secondary, but all year we have wondered why the Giants aren’t scoring more despite the talent on offense. This team brings the best defense to the playoffs, and the Giants’ DVOA variance is the smallest of any team since 1989. It’s basically always a close, low-scoring game where the defense has to hold on at the end. The Giants are 11-2 in close games this year. If you’re just a football fan, you’d love nothing more than to see Aaron Rodgers with the ball late in a 4-6 point game against this defense. But the Giants have to get to that lead first, and it’s certainly doable with the standouts in the secondary (Landon Collins, Janoris Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie). These guys can cover Green Bay’s receivers, and they already forced Rodgers into one of his worst games of the season, at home nonetheless. Of course, Rodgers can still buy time and no matter how good your secondary is, receivers will get open. This pass rush is not on the 2007 or 2011 Giants level when they had guys like Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck. This is more of a coverage defense, so Eli better bring some points to the table.

My line on Eli has been that he’s only able to make the playoffs when his team is good, and only able to win there when his team is playing great. The Giants are 0-3 in the playoffs when they haven’t gone on their two miracle SB runs. This is also Ben McAdoo rather than Tom Coughlin putting the team in position to go on a run, and I think that’s a negative. Not that Mike McCarthy is great, but you have to give a coaching edge to Green Bay here for experience. But hopefully this is a good game that comes down to the final possession. I really have wanted to pick the Giants, but I just don’t see the points coming in this one.

Final: Giants 16, Packers 20

Full Playoff Predictions

I figured I’ll go through my whole playoff predictions before things get started.

Wild Card:

  • Raiders at Texans
  • Lions at Seahawks
  • Dolphins at Steelers
  • Giants at Packers


  • Texans at Patriots
  • Steelers at Chiefs
  • Seahawks at Falcons
  • Packers at Cowboys

Conference Championship:

  • Chiefs at Patriots
  • Packers at Falcons

Super Bowl 51:

Patriots vs. Falcons

Super Bowl MVP: Matt Ryan

I regret picking almost all home teams, but this is an unusually crappy playoff field this year, and no regrets on this final pick. I think Matt Ryan is having his 2006 Peyton Manning season.

Do I think the Steelers can win in KC and NE? Absolutely, but I sure wouldn’t bet on it. Just like how I think the Giants could rip through all of these top offenses to get back to another SB, but that’s just not going to be my pick. My preseason pick was Seahawks over Patriots, and while it wouldn’t shock me if we ended up there again, I don’t have enough trust in this incarnation of the Seahawks. Finally, after such a shaky regular season, I hope we do see a great postseason filled with exciting finishes and upsets. If so many of these teams are unusually flawed, then it’s safe to say the top teams are flawed too. No one is that much of a juggernaut that they can’t go down in any given week.

Season recap

  • Week 1: 7-9
  • Week 2: 10-6
  • Week 3: 8-8
  • Week 4: 8-7
  • Week 5: 7-7
  • Week 6: 12-3
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Week 8: 7-6
  • Week 9: 8-5
  • Week 10: 7-7
  • Week 11: 12-2
  • Week 12: 12-4
  • Week 13: 10-5
  • Week 14: 9-7
  • Week 15: 12-4
  • Week 16: 9-7
  • Week 17: 11-5
  • Season: 159-97

2015 NFL Wild Card Predictions

This weekend probably more than any is where you try to weigh the value of full-season statistics vs. recent performance when a team is playing much differently, such as in the cases of Chiefs-Texans and Packers-Redskins.

We can’t just ignore Green Bay started 6-0, but man that sure feels like a long time ago based on the way the last 10 games went. To some extent we’ve seen a turnaround from Minnesota too, but the last awful performance was unfortunately against this same Seattle opponent coming back to the scene of its 38-7 assault. But we also have a multi-year trend of Seattle blowing fourth-quarter leads, so that 2-4 start was not as shocking as it appears now. Seattle is a little more vulnerable than it was heading into the playoffs the previous three years in my opinion. Then you have a team like Cincinnati playing without its starting quarterback after a career season from Andy Dalton. Is it fair to put the same lofty offensive expectations on AJ McCarron? Of course not. Likewise, the data on the Pittsburgh running game basically gets thrown out the window with DeAngelo Williams unable to go this week after an ankle injury. Do we worry about a one-dimensional Pittsburgh offense given that Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t had a stellar playoff game in five years and has his highest interception rate since he was 24 years old?

Then there is the process of tuning out the narrative-driven bullshit from the media at playoff time.

“The Chiefs have all the momentum; 10 wins in a row!” – Yeah, and the last four teams to enter the playoffs on a winning streak of 10-11 games all went one-and-done, and they were at home even. The last time the Chiefs won a playoff game, I had yet to watch a full NFL game in my life.

“Pittsburgh is the scariest team in the AFC; no one wants to play them!” – The 2015 Ravens wouldn’t mind, seeing as how two of their five wins came against this team, including Week 16 with a lot on the line. We do realize the Bengals are the 12-4 home team with better balance, right?

“Cancel the tournament, Seattle has already won according to big dog Mike Silver!” – Backwards-Hat Jeff Fisher would like to remind you he swept this team, including a Week 16 win with Case Keenum barely doing anything on the road. Think Teddy Bridgewater can hand off to Adrian Peterson at home in the bitter cold?

“Green Bay just sucks this year; how you like that!?” – Well, this one might be true, but I’ll be damned if I’m going to just start trusting the Washington Redskins to take care of business. What happened to our season-long ridicule of the NFC East?

But since this is the playoffs, people will boast about being proven right by the win-loss outcome even if they had all the wrong reasons. Let the play on the field this weekend speak for itself. What happened in Week 1 or last week really doesn’t matter at this point. The teams that play better on Saturday and Sunday will move on.

Chiefs at Texans

I wrote a good 4,300 words on this game as my preview at FO, so please check that out along with our other wild-card previews. We put a lot of work into them, including 1994 Royal Rumble references.

Houston has a fighting chance thanks to home-field advantage and having the best player on the field (J.J. Watt). You won’t impress me with AFC South wins, but holding Drew Brees and the Bengals to 6 points each was impressive. If the defense can keep this limited KC offense to 10 points, they definitely have a shot here. I just think Brian Hoyer’s struggles while pressured against a strong defense are going to put the Houston defense in a few bad spots for field position and that will be the difference again. But I’ll be pretty surprised if this isn’t low scoring.

Steelers at Bengals

You can probably look up my blog entries from the last few years and find me pointing out each time that Marvin Lewis is just 2-12 at home against the Steelers in his career. That’s incredible. I’ve come to expect Pittsburgh to play well in this building, and for the Bengals to play better in Pittsburgh. That’s just how it has been for a dozen years, and sure enough, the road team won each game this season. What seems to be the main difference for Pittsburgh is the play of Ben Roethlisberger. His numbers are much better in Cincinnati than they are at home against the Bengals, and again, we’re talking about over a sample size of 12 years and 25 games.


The comp. % and YPA alone are big, but obviously the interceptions are the key difference. Roethlisberger has never thrown more than one interception in the 13 road games. He has five multi-INT games at home, including some of his worst home games ever. Now does he play better in Cincy because the team is playing better, or does the team play better because he is much more efficient? That’s a little chicken-or-the-egg dilemma, but Roethlisberger obviously has to show up big, which is not something he’s really done in the postseason since the 2010 AFC Divisional against Baltimore. Even that game had a bad first half to it.

For all the hype about Pittsburgh’s offense, 17 of its 28 turnovers have come on the road this year (at least one in every game). That could be a big problem. Roethlisberger has 5 TD to 9 INT on the road this year, though his other numbers look great. He’ll have to protect the ball better.

The other troublesome part here is Roethlisberger has not played that well against the Cincinnati defense this season, and he will likely have little support from a running game since DeAngelo Williams is out. Incredibly, this is the fourth time since 2007 that Mike Tomlin and Roethlisberger go to the playoffs after losing the lead running back to injury in Week 16 or 17.

Pittsburgh went one-and-done the previous three times, though I would not put any of the losses squarely on the running game. Isaac Redman did a solid job in Denver in 2011, but Ben had a high ankle sprain to deal with and Dick LeBeau drew up an embarrassing defense for “Him” to throw for 316 yards on 10 completions. Let’s not even go there right now. Bad memories. I also cannot blame the Steelers this year for not having a backup plan since DeAngelo was the backup (and was excellent) to Le’Veon Bell, who also was lost this season. That also reminds me of something. Cincinnati fans point to the Bengals losing Andy Dalton and Tyler Eifert in Week 14, but in the first meeting this year, Roethlisberger was rusty in his return from injury and Bell went out early in the second quarter. So both teams have had some big injuries in the loss. Hopefully this game is the healthiest one yet.

I just do not have good expectations for Fitzgerald Toussaint, though it’s not like the offensive line stinks anymore. I think a pass-heavy approach like the Steelers used against Denver and Seattle, two superior pass defenses to the Bengals, should be the game plan here. Live and die by Ben’s arm with this receiving corps. I did not get the sense the Bengals have an answer for Antonio Brown based on that last game. I also think Markus Wheaton is gaining more confidence, Heath Miller has two 10-catch games vs. CIN this year, and Martavis Bryant, if healthy, will react well to the “call out” from Ben to play tougher. The offense has to be smart and take what’s there this game instead of forcing deep shots. The Bengals rank 1st against deep passes (thrown 15+ yards) and 27th against short passes. Let’s not overthink this. Be smart, Todd Haley.

Cincinnati’s defense is really the key to this game. If it plays well, the Bengals are likely to win. If this gets into a track meet, I’m not sure AJ McCarron won’t screw up enough times to blow the game. Marvin Lewis has gotten nothing out of his offense in six playoff games (never more than 17 points), so I’m curious to see how that pans out here. The drop-off from Dalton to McCarron is not as huge as it would be for some of these other playoff teams, but there is one. McCarron’s lack of experience causes him to hold the ball longer and be less decisive. That will open him up to more pressure, more sacks and takeaway opportunities. McCarron threw a really awful pick-six on a delayed play to William Gay in the last meeting. He should play better with more experience and prep, and he has a nice cast around him of receivers. I expect A.J. Green to play big, especially if Antwon Blake is anywhere near him. Well, that’s assuming Blake can catch up to Green after he’s beat after his 8-yard cushion. I don’t expect Jeremy Hill and the running game to do much, so McCarron will have to make plays against a defense that is totally reliant on takeaways and red-zone stops. On a per-drive basis, Pittsburgh’s defense is 13th in points allowed, 7th in takeaways, 3rd in red zone and 26th at forcing punts/three-and-outs. Pittsburgh only has 10 takeaways in 8 road games, though got a big trio of them in Cincinnati.

This does feel a little similar to last year when the Steelers lost to the Ravens. Pittsburgh brings the better quarterback, but the Bengals have a more balanced roster and can win the game in a greater variety of ways. I made the mistake of trusting the Steelers last year, though I also think Baltimore’s coaching and big-game history trumps that of the Bengals, who have a lot to prove here. A win would be huge for this franchise. I just wish it was Dalton getting the opportunity to do it for them.

Seahawks at Vikings

This is the game I have the least to say about, because I frankly just think Seattle has always been the better team this year and should win. Yes, it is really dumb that the NFL scheduled this for 10:00 A.M. PST, but I don’t buy that as a great excuse if Seattle doesn’t play well. They played at this time in the 38-7 beatdown in Week 13 in Minnesota. And how do you not get ready for a playoff game? It’s the season on the line.

This should be one of the coldest games in NFL history, so hey, great f’n timing on the roofed stadium, Minnesota. One year too late. But I don’t think the playing surface will be bothered and both teams should be able to run their usual offense, which is a lot of physical running anyway.

I just think Russell Wilson will handle the adversity and elements better than Teddy Bridgewater, who has been pedestrian for much of the year. Wilson won’t be as spectacular as he has been, though I don’t think he needs to be. I don’t see the Vikings scoring many points at all here. They were shut out the last game with Cordarrelle Patterson providing the only points on a return touchdown. This offense is just too limited to attack Seattle’s defense and the Seahawks can go all in at stopping Adrian Peterson, who hasn’t had many great games down the stretch here. It sucks that we won’t be seeing Marshawn Lynch in this one, but I think the Seahawks will manage in a game that might need the cold element to stay interesting since I think it will be the weekend’s most boring watch. Al Michaels might need thawed out by the fourth quarter.

However, I would warn that Seattle fans better hope the team’s head isn’t getting too big after all the hype following that domination in Arizona. You still have three road games to get to another Super Bowl, and Mike Zimmer is a tough coach. He’ll have his guys ready to hit in the cold and all it takes is a few fumbles to turn a game like this one. The hype, the early start time, the Lynch downgrade, the fact that Minnesota is playing much better since the last meeting…it all adds up for me to expect a much closer game than 38-7, but I still think Seattle should win. If they lose, we know it won’t be clinched until the final minute of the game.

Packers at Redskins

This is the weekend’s most volatile game. Stay away, gamblers, because you just don’t know if Aaron Rodgers will throw five touchdowns or if the Redskins will win by 17. Okay, both of those outcomes are pretty far-fetched, but I would be very careful about trusting either team in this one.

When you look at the stats this season, you’ll swear someone switched Aaron Rodgers’ stat line with Kirk Cousins’. I never thought we’d see Rodgers under 7 YPA until his old-man decline stage, but he finished the season at 6.68 YPA as Green Bay’s offense has really struggled for 13 games now. He’s at a horrific 5.97 YPA over the last 10 games, and that’s boosted a little by that Hail Mary in Detroit that shouldn’t have happened, dropping Green Bay to 3-7 in its last 10 games instead of 4-6. Rodgers just had the 5th-largest decline in YPA (2.22) in the last 10 games of a season vs. first 6 games since 1978.

Coinciding with Green Bay’s 10-game slump is Cousins’ “You like that!” moment in the comeback win over Tampa Bay. In the last 10 games, Cousins leads the NFL in completion percentage (72.38%) and YPA (8.72). He has 23 touchdowns to 3 INT, which again, looks like MVP-form Aaron Rodgers. This is crazy stuff, but I still have a hard time trusting him. Interceptions were his red flag coming into the season, and he threw multiple picks in four of the first six games before this hot streak. Did he turn the corner as a still relatively young quarterback, or is this just a hot streak against a soft schedule? Out of Washington’s 9 wins, the Bills had the best record at 8-8, and Rex Ryan’s defense was a huge disappointment this year. Cousins is pretty decisive. He gets rid of the ball quickly and with good short-throw accuracy, so he takes very few hits. He can hit some impressive passes down the field, but he’s not exactly Rodgers in the arm department despite the Rodgers-esque stat line. I think Jay Gruden is doing a fine job with Cousins and he’ll be more likely to continue his success for Washington than the smoke and mirrors of Robert Griffin’s rookie season, but I’m still a bit skeptical about him ever repeating these numbers again. It reminds me of where I stood on Nick Foles after 2013, though I don’t think Cousins will sink that low.

Can I see Cousins getting into some interception trouble and getting sacked a few times in this one from a Green Bay defense that is really the best part of the team? Yes, I sure can. And I think it will be necessary for Green Bay to win, because the offense cannot be trusted anymore. You know how I feel about Rodgers playing from behind, and I think that strengthens his slump this year since he’s not getting the hot start he wants, so Mike McCarthy struggles to adjust and games just snowball from there. That Arizona game was a disaster; easily one of the worst performances of Rodgers’ career. Washington can’t do that to him, but I think they’ll be stout against an unreliable running game and amp up the pass rush on Rodgers. James Jones might have a good game on broken plays, but you flat out cannot trust Randall Cobb at this point. Calling him a No. 2 wide receiver right now would be an excessive compliment.

In the way that Colin Kaepernick seemingly “let it all hang out” in the playoffs with his running a few years ago, I think Rodgers may have to scramble more in this game to make plays for his offense. That’s either scrambles for yards or to extend plays for some backyard football. There is no next week if you lose, so why not go all out? The traditional Green Bay offense is broken, and I don’t think simply adding Jordy Nelson is going to cure everything in 2016. The Packers will need to make some changes in the offseason, but winning a playoff game after this sustained stretch of poor play would be some achievement.


There have been four seasons in NFL history (2004, 2005, 2010, 2013) where 3 road teams won on wild-card weekend, but never a year with four. The closest we came was in 2013 given the only home winner (Colts) had to come back from a 38-10 deficit. Hey, Chiefs. I feel like this slate has solid potential for four road winners, but I’m not going to pick it to happen.

  • Chiefs over Texans, 20-16
  • Steelers over Bengals, 23-16
  • Seahawks over Vikings, 17-6
  • Redskins over Packers, 27-20

Season Results

  • Week 1: 10-6
  • Week 2: 6-10
  • Week 3: 14-2
  • Week 4: 11-4
  • Week 5: 9-5
  • Week 6: 8-6
  • Week 7: 10-4
  • Week 8: 10-4
  • Week 9: 8-5
  • Week 10: 4-10
  • Week 11: 9-5
  • Week 12: 8-8
  • Week 13: 11-5
  • Week 14: 10-6
  • Week 15: 11-5
  • Week 16: 9-7
  • Week 17: 8-8
  • Season: 156-100 (.609)

This might have been my worst record since I started picking games a decade ago. Last season was one of my best.

NFL Wild Card Predictions, MVP Voting and Writing Recap

Playoffs. I have already been feeling some postseason pressure to get things done, but it was a successful week and am looking forward to more significant research to put out there before we head into the offseason. This intro would sound much better read by Don Cheadle.

Last year I recapped every 4QC/GWD in playoff history for each round (can be found under Captain Comeback 2011 archives). The Wild Card round is home to the all-time NFL comeback, Houston’s 32-point collapse in Buffalo 20 years ago this week. It also has the only two playoff games ever ending on a defensive score in overtime, and both games involved the Packers. Finally, the only two playoff games to have two lead changes in the final minute are also on Wild Card weekend.

The best game last season ended up being the Steelers in Denver, with the longest game-winning TD pass in NFL playoff history from Tim Tebow to Demaryius Thomas. I have a feeling Sunday’s games could live up to that one again.

This Week’s Articles

Captain Comeback Week 17: 2012 NFL Regular Season Review – Cold, Hard Football Facts

It’s the year-end review of the regular season, with a ranking of all 32 offenses in the clutch. Go figure the Colts and Broncos were among the best, while San Diego was the only team in the league without a single comeback or GWD in 2012.

The Biggest Flaw for Each NFL Playoff Team – Bleacher Report

It may be a  slideshow, but you are getting 12 articles in one here. A look at each playoff team’s fatal flaw, whether it be something tangible or a perception they must overcome. Framing each team the proper way before the postseason starts.

Following a Legend: Andrew Luck Week 17 vs. Houston Texans – Colts Authority

Houston blitzed Andrew Luck on 75.9 percent of his drop backs this week, but the battered offensive line actually held up enough for one of the most efficient offensive performances of the year for the Colts. Luck threw perhaps his pass of the season with a 70-yard touchdown strike to T.Y. Hilton in the fourth quarter on a 3rd and 23 to ice the game and the Colts’ 11th win.

The Thinking Man’s Guide: NFL Wild Card Predictions – Bleacher Report

The four-game preview format of TMG works best here, looking at each Wild Card matchup. Also included is a review of some postseason studies I did in the last year on home-field advantage, quality wins in the regular season, and marquee blowouts in 2012.

Best Rookie QB Class Ever Makes Postseason Debut – NBC Sports

Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson will be the 12th-14th rookie quarterbacks to start a playoff game. A look at their record-breaking success, and whether or not one of them can make more history by reaching the Super Bowl.

Voting History: Why Peyton Manning Should Run Away with NFL MVP Award – Cold, Hard Football Facts

Not only was this the argument for Peyton Manning clearly being the MVP over Adrian Peterson in 2012, but you also get a chance to view all the MVP voting results (AP award) for 1986-2011. A great resource given this information is nowhere to be found elsewhere in one place. Find out who the only TE to receive a MVP vote is, or the only cornerback.

 NFL Wild Card Predictions

I’m not a fan of picking the final score, but here’s a shot at it.

  • Texans over Bengals, 19-16
  • Packers over Vikings, 24-13
  • Colts over Ravens, 20-17
  • Seahawks over Redskins, 24-20

Season results:

  • Week 1: 12-4
  • Week 2: 11-5
  • Week 3: 4-12
  • Week 4: 10-5
  • Week 5: 10-4
  • Week 6: 5-9
  • Week 7: 12-1
  • Week 8: 10-4
  • Week 9: 11-3
  • Week 10: 9-4-1
  • Week 11: 11-3
  • Week 12: 10-6
  • Week 13: 8-8
  • Week 14: 11-5
  • Week 15: 11-5
  • Week 16: 12-4
  • Week 17: 11-5
  • Season: 168-87-1 (.658)