FanDuel: Will EJ Manuel, Geno Smith Continue the Mobile Quarterback Trend?

The following is a guest post written by the folks at FanDuel.com.

Will EJ Manuel, Geno Smith Continue the Mobile Quarterback Trend?

In the last few NFL drafts, teams have had a lot of success drafting and playing mobile quarterbacks. Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III are the most known “new breeds” of quarterback, capable of doing damage with their legs and their arm. The question is, will EJ Manuel and Geno Smith be the next two to join this growing club?

Although both rookies are talented, they are not coming in with nearly the same hype as some of the high draft picks have in recent years. However, Kaepernick and Wilson have shown that you do not need a ton of hype to get an opportunity to succeed right away. In fact, opportunity will allow both of these guys to showcase their talent sooner rather than later.

Neither 2013 rookie quarterback is considered to be a favorite to start in Week 1, but Mark Sanchez for the Jets and Kevin Kolb for the Bills are not exactly grabbing the starting job and not letting go, both make good sense as backups on your fantasy football team. Neither team is expected to be in the playoff hunt, so at some point during the year, it makes sense that a rookie will get the reigns.

In college, both Manuel and Smith showed off their ability to create offense on the ground and through the air. The NFL game is much different, so learning to make adjustments is the key. However, that adjustment period in recent years has been pretty short. At first, people though that mobile quarterbacks running the run option might be nothing more than a gimmick. It appears as though it is here to stay for at least a little bit longer, and for the Bills and Jets, they are hoping their investments will pay off.

The Whistleblower No. 5 – Peyton Manning in Most Overrated Colts, a NFL.com Hack and Adam Rank

NFLWhistleBlower

It’s been too long since we’ve heard from The Whistleblower, but it’s June, and this is the time of year for inane arguments after nearly five months without football.

This week there was an article posted on NFL.com by mystery hack Sean Neumann about the most overrated and underrated players for the Indianapolis Colts. I only called him a hack. His own Twitter claims “The worst writer in the history of the world.”

In an obvious attempt to generate views, Neumann included Peyton Manning on the most overrated list. He’s entitled to that opinion, but read his putrid reasoning:

“This is not to troll anyone, but the hand wringing over whether he should stay or go was pretty much pointless. That’s why he’s on this list. Not because he kept losing to New England in bad weather. Not because Brady always seemed to have his number. And certainly not because he has happy feet and always seemed to make a really bad throw in the fourth quarter. No, it’s because when you have a chance to draft Andrew Luck and hit the reset button on your franchise instead of letting your veteran ride off into the sunset while you surround him with less-talented spare parts, you do it and never look back.”

We’ll just blow the whistle on the part in bold. Anyone can have an opinion, but don’t make it invalid with pathetic reasoning.

The “always seemed to make a really bad throw in the fourth quarter” is the same case of perception owning reality that continues to be the crutch for the lazy. The link actually goes to the 2010 game between the Colts and Patriots when Manning threw a game-ending interception with the Colts in field goal range in a 31-28 game. Manning was hit as he threw and the ball sailed.

Never mind that on the previous drive with a chance to end the game in the four-minute offense, Tom Brady threw a third-down pass directly to Colts linebacker Tyjuan Hagler, who dropped the interception. Does that ring a bell?

Want the facts?

  • Fourth quarter or overtime, down by 0-8 points in the playoffs: Brady and Manning have each thrown TWO interceptions in this situation.
  • Fourth quarter or overtime, down by 0-16 points in the playoffs: Brady has thrown FIVE interceptions compared to THREE for Manning.
  • Fourth quarter or overtime, down by 0-8 points: In 13 head-to-head meetings, Brady has thrown FOUR interceptions in this situation. Peyton Manning has thrown ONE interception (that 2010 game) and lost ONE fumble (2007).

So where does the perception come from? Of course. One player won three Super Bowls many moons ago. The other took nine years to win one. Same old crap.

If that article’s text wasn’t bad enough, included at the top is a video where NFL Network’s Adam Rank and Dave Dameshek discuss the topic. When it comes to the overrated choice, they both only talk about Manning.

Dameshek gets it started with the playoff losses where “Manning threw a lot of big-time interceptions.” The old comparison to the Atlanta Braves comes up next.

But then pops in Rank with the “he beat Rex Grossman!” argument. Fair enough, but one of the biggest double standards used for today’s NFL quarterbacks is the 2006 Rex Grossman argument. So Manning only beat Grossman, yet it’s completely okay that Drew Brees LOST BY 25 POINTS TO GROSSMAN? You know Brees, the quarterback who beat Manning in Super Bowl XLIV and gets a lot of credit for his playoff performances which have often been great outside of said Grossman loss? Brees has also only made the playoffs five times in 12 NFL seasons.

You could mention the 2006 Colts were the only team to ever beat the top three defenses in the same postseason, but let’s stick with Grossman.

Frankly, I could have skipped all this nonsense and just got right down to the meat, the finale of the video.

Rank: “When you talk about big-time game-crippling interceptions, that’s Peyton Manning’s specialty.”

I’m not on TV, I have no desire to be on TV. I write (or type at 110 WPM) print media that I hope people find useful in their enjoyment of the game. So when I see bullshit like this being spoon-fed to the masses, I can’t help but say something about it. That’s been a huge part of my motivation to go down this career path in the first place. I was tired of talking heads on TV who do no research and stick to flimsy narratives.

The facts need to come out somewhere.

Where does the evidence for what Rank said even come from? Oh yeah, he saw this one play this one game and that’s good enough. This January’s Ravens game was all he needed. Forget the other 13 seasons of data or the fact that even in that game Manning had the go-ahead touchdown pass late and the Broncos were leading in the final minute.

If you look at the stats above, it was Tom Brady who threw two huge interceptions in clutch situations in back-to-back weeks in the 2006 playoffs. There was the fourth-down play in San Diego, which he got lucky on again with the Chargers fumbling the ball. Then there was a game-ending pick to Marlin Jackson in the 2006 AFC Championship.

In that game, Manning went 80 yards in 1:17 for the game-winning touchdown. Brady had 0:54 and two timeouts left to answer. He went 34 yards and threw a season-ending pick right to Jackson.

For Manning, he never threw an interception in the playoffs in a clutch late-game situation until the Tracy Porter play in Super Bowl 44.

That was a career first, yet to someone like Rank, that’s “what he always does,” facts be damned. Fueling the fire for Rank would be the 2010 season where Manning had an unusually bad year in the clutch. He threw late interceptions against the Eagles, Patriots and Cowboys (OT).

Counting the Porter play, that’s 4 clutch interceptions in a calendar year. Yet from 2003 thru the 2009 AFC Championship, nearly a full seven seasons, Manning threw TWO clutch interceptions in losses, and both were Hail Mary throws in the final seconds of games (2003 Jacksonville, 2007 San Diego).

If you only focus on the Porter play, you ignore the best seven-year run of clutch QB play in NFL history. In that time, Manning went 29-17 (.630) at game-winning drive opportunities. Even when looking at the 17 losses you mostly find good things for Manning:

  • Four times Manning either tied the game (3) or led a go-ahead score (1) the last time he touched the ball. Defense lost the game at the gun.
  • Three times Manning watched his kicker miss with a 2-3 point deficit (2004 @NE, 2005 PIT, 2007 @SD). In the NE game, Edgerrin James also fumbled at the 1-yard line with 3:43 left.
  • Two times Manning needed a last-minute comeback against Jacksonville after putting the team ahead earlier in the fourth quarter (2003, 2004). Something similar happened against San Diego in the 2007 playoffs. His passes on third down (R.Wayne) and fourth down (D.Clark) were dropped.
  • In the classic 2003 game against New England, the Patriots made that goal-line stand to win 38-34, stuffing Edgerrin James on fourth down. In the AFC Championship rematch, even on his worst day Manning was down 21-14 with 2:01 to go. He went 0/4 with the NFL admitting they failed to call penalties on the Patriots on both third and fourth down. This led to the reinforcement of illegal contact in 2004.
  • That leaves the four worst things Manning did as being: 1. taking a sack to fall out of field-goal range against 2005 Chargers, falling to 13-1 after Michael Turner TD run ended perfect season. 2. Throwing incomplete on 4th-and-2 at the DAL 8 in 2006 with a 21-14 deficit. 3. After the defense blew a 20-10 lead against 2007 Patriots, Manning was sacked and fumbled with 2:25 left, down 24-20. 4. Down 17-14 to 2008 Titans on MNF, Manning threw incomplete on a 4th-and-2 pass. TEN scored a touchdown to go up 24-14; won 31-21.

We’re going to pretend none of this ever happened and focus on two plays?

In working my way through Fringe on Netflix, I can only think that perhaps an alternate universe really does exist. That’s the only logical explanation for why people like Rank say what they do.

If it’s not that, then maybe some people just choose to specialize in stupidity.

NFL History: MVP Quarterbacks Playing with MVP Running Backs

Christian Ponder would be one of the least likely NFL MVP winners in 2013, but if the game had gone to hell and he won a year after running back Adrian Peterson was named MVP, then they would join Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk as the only QB/RB duo to win consecutive MVPs. Warner won in 1999 and 2001 with Faulk taking it in 2000.

Here is a list of every instance of a MVP quarterback playing with a MVP running back. This is based on the AP’s MVP award, which was first given in 1957.

  • Bart Starr (1966) and Paul Hornung (1961) played together in 1957-66 in Green Bay.
  • Bart Starr (1966) and Jim Taylor (1962) played together in 1958-66 in Green Bay.
  • Joe Montana (1989-90) and O.J. Simpson (1973) played together in 1979 in San Francisco, though this is a cheap example.
  • Ken Stabler (1974) and Earl Campbell (1979) played together in 1980-81 in Houston.
  • Joe Montana (1989-90) and Marcus Allen (1985) played together in 1993-94 in Kansas City.
  • John Elway (1987) and Terrell Davis (1998) played together in 1995-98 in Denver.
  • Peyton Manning (2003-04, 2008-09) and Marshall Faulk (2000) played together in 1998 in Indianapolis before either won a MVP.
  • Kurt Warner (1999, 2001) and Marshall Faulk (2000) played together in 1999-03 in St. Louis.
  • Brett Favre (1995-97) and Adrian Peterson (2012) played together in 2009-10 in Minnesota.

So only Stabler/Campbell, Montana/Allen and Warner/Faulk played together in a season after each had won a MVP in the past.

That means just seven seasons in NFL history have had active MVP winners at QB and RB.

NFL History: Defending Super Bowl Champion vs. Regular Season Champion

Going off an article from last week on the NFL’s Final Four history, I was thinking about how the NHL’s Chicago Blackhawks are this year’s regular season champion and they currently hold a 2-0 lead against the Los Angeles Kings, who are the defending Stanley Cup champions.

How many of these meetings between defending champion and regular season champion have taken place in the NFL?

My data on NFL regular season champions goes back to 1975 when the seeding system was put in place. Here are those meetings (winner in green):

DSRS

Nothing says “last year was last year” like this table.

The regular season champion is 18-3 (.857) against the defending Super Bowl champion, including 12 straight wins from 1976-94. In the playoffs, the regular season champion is 4-2.

The only three losses involve the ‘90s NFC cycle when Steve Young’s 49ers couldn’t beat Brett Favre’s Packers, who couldn’t beat Troy Aikman’s Cowboys. Also the Patriots took their poor loss on Halloween into Pittsburgh and turned it into a 41-27 win in the 2004 AFC Championship.

18-3, that’s pretty damn good.

Donovan McNabb Retires an Eagle

Quarterback Donovan McNabb officially retired as a Philadelphia Eagle last week.

Is he ever going to be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame? After that finish to his career in Washington and Minnesota, the answer is no. You can read my extended information on his HOF case here.

Honestly, I just wanted to post this ridiculous GIF somewhere. So from the last meaningful game of McNabb’s career, a 34-14 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in the 2009 playoffs, this is what McNabb did:

McNabb Dance

Is that a “cornball brother” move?

Apparently McNabb has blocked out the memory of that evening. He currently serves as a NFL Network analyst.

mcnabb 

The Office Finale: Saying Goodbye…For the Fifth Time

If only because I’m tired of seeing my terrible mock draft at the top of the page, I’m going to reflect on the series finale of NBC’s The Office tonight. Spoilers on the series will be included, so read at your own risk.

In some ways The Office has become the Brett Favre of comedies. It’s been around forever, but every time you think it’s gone, it comes back.

But no more retirement games as tonight’s episode is indeed the series finale. While some people have followed the show since the British original from 2001, my experience with the show has been very unique, and I just wanted to share it on this day.

This is going to feel like the fifth time I have said goodbye to The Office ….all in a span of six months, and yet it feels like 12 years.

Back in 2001 I was more likely to think “BBC” meant something vulgar than its real meaning. I didn’t know who Ricky Gervais was. So it was a happy time, you could say.

By the time the show was developed for American television in 2005, I was hardly watching any TV series not named 24, which oddly enough was announced this week that it is coming back. I did not have a DVR until 2007. Netflix was not streaming on my Playstation 3 until last April.

Frankly, I thought the show looked stupid. I didn’t care for the mockumentary style, as though I am a fan of narration, breaking the fourth wall and talking straight to the camera has never been a tactic I enjoy. Technically they have an audience when they talk to the camera in these things, but come on. I can see through your parlor tricks.

So I avoided the show for quite a while, along with just about any sitcom on the big networks at the time. It did not help that I was not a fan of Steve Carell outside of Little Miss Sunshine.

Yet for some reason when I got Netflix last year, I decided to queue up both the British and American versions. It wasn’t until about September that I actually watched them. One Saturday afternoon I watched the British pilot followed immediately by the American pilot, which was basically a shortened version of Gervais’ work.

Sure, I liked that the British characters were able to swear, even if they were hard to understand at times. I sparingly watched it, though did have a wild coincidence on a Wednesday night with it.

After a caller into our Colts Authority radio show dropped “big black cock” on the air, I watched the British version afterwards. Sure enough it was the season 2 opener where there was a joke centered on a “big black cock.” The BBC was literally haunting me that night.

Initially I did like the British version more, though during football season it was hard to find time to really watch either. I did start grinding away on the American version, but it wasn’t until maybe November when I finished the British version’s 14 episodes. The good guy gets the receptionist in the end. What a shocker.

With the conclusion of the British version, that was the first time I said goodbye to The Office.

Through the holiday season I started picking up steam on the American version, watching a couple hours of episodes at a time. I thought the show was progressing well. When people live and breathe with a show each week, it is easy for them to wear down over the years. But if you watch it in mini-marathon viewings, you’ll see most shows maintain their quality for season after season, if not getting better as you grow to love the characters.

And that I did.

Carell actually didn’t annoy the shit out of me anymore (at least not that much). Rainn Wilson was no longer that “goofy looking dude who was in Super” to me. Jenna Fischer says more with her eyes than most actresses can with their mouths. John Krasinski took the bowl off his head and Brian Baumgartner started going full meathead. The less David Koechner, the better. Ed Helms was tolerable from The Hangover, while Ellie Kemper was a great addition as the new receptionist.

I wanted to kill Toby too.

My favorite episode was probably “Dinner Party” from season 4. You know, that one night?

As I was getting close to finishing season 7 in January, I was already aware Michael Scott leaves the show in “Goodbye Michael”. Normally it would be TV suicide to lose your main character, but that is why this is the second time I said goodbye to The Office as I knew it.

With a few minor changes, that really could have been the series finale right there. Hell, they didn’t even make it the season 7 finale. Bold move to continue, but so be it, NBC.

Now after seven seasons and the loss of the main character, this is when I noticed the quality of the show began to decay. They tried to make Andy Bernard, perhaps thanks to Helms’ film success, the new Michael Scott. I like Andy’s character, but this just didn’t work. Season 8 featured many scenes and episodes outside of the office, which kind of defeats the purpose of the show. About the only thing I liked in this season was more screen time for Erin.

I even had my longest Netflix marathon ever one night to finish this season, watching 15 episodes in a row. Like that I was done with all eight seasons and the 169 episodes Netflix had to offer. Usually this sense of accomplishment means you are done with a series, but The Office was still going.

Since Comcast is a joke and only had a few mid-season episodes from Season 9 available OnDemand, I ended up getting Hulu Plus in February. Annoyed with their commercial breaks, I plodded through the first 15 episodes, not particularly enjoying much of what I was seeing. The new characters were not interesting, Nellie has not been a good addition, and even staples of the show like Jim and Pam were just boring at this point.

When I finished the series on Hulu, I was finally all caught up to the live show, which some people have already been caught up on for eight (or 12) years. It took me five months.

That was the fourth time I said goodbye to The Office.

My first chance to watch the show live was missed as I had to DVR and watch it later (but no commercials is always a plus).

So the first live episode I ever watched was “The Farm”, which is literally the single worst episode ever made in the 201-episode series. Good thing for NBC they canceled this attempt at a spin-off on Dwight’s farm family, because it was horrible.

The last five episodes have largely shown a series running on fumes to get to the finale. “Stairmageddon” was another low point for the series. At least last week’s episode recalled some vintage moments from the show’s early days. Is the show even old enough in my head to call anything about it vintage?

But now here we are with one 55-minute “Finale” to go. The series finale to Six Feet Under is such a gold standard that it has ruined my lifelong expectations of all other series finales, so I don’t expect a whole lot from this one.

I think it would be a colossal mistake for Steve Carell to not make an appearance tonight. The fact that it’s a wedding for Dwight and Angela makes it extremely easy to write him in, even if it’s for just one scene.

So that’s that.

When I say goodbye to The Office for the fifth time, I know that this is the only one that counts. While it’s taken many people 8-12 years to get to this point, the show’s only been with me for eight months.

Watching it live tonight, it will feel awkward to say goodbye so soon, but that’s exactly how I want to remember this show: a daily snapshot of awkwardness.

NFL 2013 Mock Draft (1st Round)

Look, I really don’t like mock drafts. But since some people have asked if I will do one, and since I entered a contest on NFL.com for one, I might as well share my sure to be failure of a mock. One little change and suddenly you have to make major changes. I tried to match players the teams actually need, but we know everyone has their own drafting methods.

If I get five right I’ll call it a good effort. But that’s the thing with mock drafts. Someone can spend 100 hours and get fewer picks right than the person throwing a list into Excel and doing a random number generator to make their picks.

  1. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Luke Joeckel
  2. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Dion Jordan
  3. Oakland Raiders – DT Sharrif Floyd
  4. Philadelphia Eagles – DT Star Lotulelei
  5. Detroit Lions – OT Eric Fisher
  6. Cleveland Browns – CB Dee Milliner
  7. Arizona Cardinals – OG Chance Warmack
  8. Buffalo Bills – QB Ryan Nassib
  9. NY Jets – DE Barkevious Mingo
  10. Tennessee Titans – OT D.J. Fluker
  11. San Diego Chargers – OG Jonathan Cooper
  12. Miami Dolphins – DE Ezekiel Ansah
  13. NY Jets – QB E.J. Manuel
  14. Carolina Panthers – OT Lane Johnson
  15. New Orleans Saints – DL Sheldon Richardson
  16. St. Louis Rams – WR Tavon Austin
  17. Pittsburgh Steelers – LB Jarvis Jones
  18. Dallas Cowboys – DL Johnathan Hankins
  19. NY Giants – CB Xavier Rhodes
  20. Chicago Bears – LB Arthur Brown
  21. Cincinnati Bengals – S Kenny Vaccaro
  22. St. Louis Rams – DE Bjoren Werner
  23. Minnesota Vikings – LB Manti Te’o
  24. Indianapolis Colts – DE Damontre Moore
  25. Minnesota Vikings – QB Geno Smith
  26. Green Bay Packers – DL Cornellius Carradine
  27. Houston Texans – WR Cordarrelle Patterson
  28. Denver Broncos – DL Datone Jones
  29. New England Patriots – WR Justin Hunter
  30. Atlanta Falcons – TE Tyler Eifert
  31. San Francisco 49ers – S Eric Reid
  32. Baltimore Ravens – WR Keenan Allen

The beauty of this thing is I don’t care how I do, and I  spent more time typing these out than putting it together.

Just let me know when the games start and we see how good these players really are. At least half of them will likely disappoint.

I also would like to further go on record in believing Cordarrelle Patterson is going to be a bust, and Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson will be the best NFL QB in this class.

Mock.

UPDATE (1:00 A.M. Friday morning)

That was worse than expected. The only pick I got right was Jarvis Jones to Pittsburgh. Guess I still know the Steelers at least…

I did match up Tavon Austin to St. Louis and Eric Reid to San Francisco, but at much different numbers.

So be it.

Reaching For Value in the NFL Draft

Rather than try to do a Twitter rant with a 140-character limit, I just wanted to share some thoughts on NFL teams “reaching” in the draft.

Let’s look at a hypothetical. A team holds the 15th and 47th picks in the draft. The player they want is roughly the 32nd-best prospect on the board according to most teams and experts. Should the team still pull the trigger on that player, which could be considered a reach, or should they take someone with closer “value” to the No. 15 pick?

(Note: Literally just as I was going to hit “Publish”, I saw a link that made me realize this hypothetical is essentially the real-life example of Seattle and Bruce Irvin last year.)

I say you take the player you want and ignore the so-called “reach” criticism. What’s valuable is getting the player that you feel best fits your system and need. There’s a good chance that player would not be there when you pick again at 47. There is no guarantee you could trade down and get the player in the 20s or 30s; supposedly closer to where he is “supposed to go.” It takes two to tango.

Remember, when these Mel Kiper/Mike Mayock types rank players, they are looking at every position in the draft. The reality is teams are looking at a limited number of positions when it comes to that premium first-round pick. If Geno Smith is the best player available at No. 17, that doesn’t mean a damn thing to the Pittsburgh Steelers, because they have a quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger.

Let’s look at a real example with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year. Last week I broke down whether or not Tampa Bay should be trading for Darrelle Revis.

These are the only positions the Buccaneers, who pick 13th (for now), should be considering with that pick: TE, WR, DE, DT, OLB, and CB.

You could argue it’d be no different in the second round (43rd overall) for Tampa as well. I almost didn’t include WR because of Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams as starters, though you could imagine the value of a Tavon Austin in the slot in that offense. Still, it’s a fringe need for this team.

But the point is Tampa Bay is only looking at a few different positions, so their board is far different from many teams and that of the experts who will instantly be analyzing these picks. If Texas safety Kenny Vacarro is the best player available when Tampa Bay picks, then you can’t fault them when they pass given they have Mark Barron and Dashon Goldson. If they take a player that’s only 25th on Mel Kiper’s big board at No. 13, then you better adjust it for all the players Kiper had listed at positions Tampa Bay didn’t need to fill.

After you do that, you’ll likely see it was hardly a reach.

Historically, the 13th pick holds more value than the 32nd pick, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to produce a better player in every case. So you should focus on taking the best player for your team, even if he supposedly isn’t worth a top 15 pick. Every single year there are players who go at the end of the round that are much better than players at the start of that round.

That’s one of the many issues with analysis of a process so inexact. No matter who’s doing the mock draft, no one really knows how a team feels about the players they have and what they think they really need to upgrade. That’s why you end up with draft results that are so drastically different from expectations, which is how you end up with “that team reached!”

But the only real reach is thinking one can ever predict how a NFL draft will unfold.