The final weekend of the 2024 NFL regular season is here. I just took a peek at my preseason predictions for final records and they’re shaping up to be my worst ever, and the Minnesota Vikings are one of the biggest misses as I had them finishing 4-13. They’re a win away from going 15-2 and claiming the No. 1 seed with Sam Darnold having one of the greatest late-bloomer seasons ever, if not the greatest at the quarterback position.
But a lot of people probably made that mistake, right? It’s been a wild season with Washington also surprising people with its first 11-win season since 1991 behind rookie Jayden Daniels. The 49ers also repeated their 2020 “injury doom after a Super Bowl loss” season.
A lot to wrap up Sunday night when this thing is over and Game 272 is in the books.
This Week’s Articles
- 2024 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 18: Sam Darnold or Jared Goff in Epic NFC Showdown?
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 18
NFL Week 18 Predictions
The last week is always tricky as some teams could give a shit about the effort they’re going to put into this game, and for others, it’s literally the season on the line.
Like I said, some of these games mean little to nothing to these teams, so I’m only going to focus on the important ones here.
C:LE-BAL: All bets are off on Lamar’s MVP if he blows it as a 20-point favorite. That should go without saying. But I don’t expect Bailey Zappe to shock the world Saturday.
CIN-PIT: I wrote about this in my picks link above as I like the Steelers to win what might be their last win this season given their recent playoff flops. I think they know how to move the ball well against the Bengals and score points, and I believe in Cincy’s fatal flaws catching up to them with the season on the line. That means Joe Burrow taking sacks (please show up big for my DPOY futures bet, T.J. Watt) and the defense getting shredded. The Steelers are healthy after a long break from Christmas, so let’s see a better effort and send the Bengals home while likely clinching that No. 5 seed and a reasonable trip to Houston for the wild card.
BUF-NE: It doesn’t matter for the playoffs, but I’m going with New England in an upset win as it could satisfy two things for the Bills. After Josh Allen leaves the game after extending his consecutive starts streak, they can play like ass and lose big to the lowly Patriots to try bolstering his MVP case in another ridiculous fashion. But more importantly, don’t let the Patriots have control of the No. 1 pick in the draft and possibly land Travis Hunter as a weapon for Drake Maye. Lose this game to New England if you’re smart about the big picture in the AFC East.
NFC South: I’ll be shocked if the Bucs don’t come through and win against the awful Saints’ offense to win the NFC South.
KC-DEN: It sure looks like the Chiefs are not playing their ~12 best players or so in this game. You can’t bench everybody, but it’s going to be Carson Wentz and a slew of backups. Yet I’m still going to trust them to cover the spread and make it tough on Denver, which could be playing for its season if the Bengals win Saturday night. We’ll see but I think this game has some 2004 Steelers-Bills vibes to it.
MIA-NYJ: I don’t think this will be the last NFL game for Aaron Rodgers, but I do think he’s going to throw his 500th touchdown and get a win in what will be his last game for the Jets.
MIN-DET: The big one. 14-2 vs. 14-2. The Lions are +200 on the scoreboard and have had this incredible season, but I think the Vikings have the right stuff to win this game and earn the No. 1 seed. They have the defense that gets a takeaway every week, has held teams to 11/31 (35.5%) on 4th down to lead the league, and can get after Jared Goff like they did last time. I like the offense being able to score against this injury-ravaged defense that has allowed a lot of plays and points in recent weeks, and I think Darnold can get it done as he already has 5 GWDs this season.
It’s a little ballsy, but I’m feeling Minnesota in the Game of the Year that’s as much of a playoff game without being a literal playoff game. You either get a bye week and home-field advantage or you have to go on the road next week despite 14 wins. That’s crazy stuff. But I also think this is a fantastic trial run for Darnold for what real playoff games will be like. That’s why I still think this team has a shot to get to New Orleans even if they drop this game in a close one.
Maybe that’s a hint of where I’m going with my playoff picks this year, but let’s figure out these seeds and matchups before we get into that next week.
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 