NFL 2024 Conference Championship Predictions: Historic Day Edition

~ Scott

We’re here. About 12 hours from the point I’m writing this, they’ll kick off the NFC Championship Game, and that will begin what could be one of the most important days in NFL history depending on how these games go.

Just think of all the history and streaks on the line today:

  • The Chiefs can become the first team to reach the Super Bowl after repeating, putting them one win away from the three-peat.
  • A 10th-straight playoff win would also tie the Patriots for the all-time record.
  • The Chiefs have gone 8 straight games without a giveaway (NFL record).
  • The Chiefs have won 16 straight one-score games (NFL record).
  • The Bills have 8 giveaways in 19 games (NFL record for any season or any 19-game span).
  • The Bills have not lost the turnover battle in 21 straight games (longest streak in Super Bowl era).
  • The Bills are the only team since at least 1992 to have 0 lost fumbles by non-quarterbacks.
  • The Bills could break the Five-Year Rule if they win the Super Bowl in Year 7 of Sean McDermott/Josh Allen as no team has ever won its first Super Bowl starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than five years.
  • The Commanders can become the first team in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback (Jayden Daniels).
  • The Commanders can become the first team in NFL history to score at least 18 points in 20 consecutive games in a season.
  • The Eagles, well, they’re playing too. I guess Saquon Barkley can still set the single-season rushing record (playoffs included).

That’s a lot of stuff. I absolutely have a preferred rooting interest in seeing Commanders-Chiefs in two weeks. Unfortunately, that feels like the least likely outcome. I also have a very strong objection to seeing Bills-Eagles in two weeks. Unfortunately, that feels like the most likely outcome, or at least second right now. But crazier things have happened, and you can’t argue with these facts that add a lot of drama to the day:

  • The Commanders are the only team to beat the Eagles since October, and the only team to score more than 23 points against them in that time.
  • The Bills are the only team to beat the Chiefs’ starters this season, and the only team to score 30 points on that starting defense in the last two seasons.

Home teams usually win this round, but these teams have shown vulnerabilities despite their winning ways, and they are facing the teams arguably best equipped to beat them. That’s what makes it so interesting.

And while people are bitching left and right about officiating, let’s not lose the plot on turnovers this week. None of these final four teams have a giveaway in the playoffs. That’s never happened before since they’ve done this round in 1970. The teams who lose are likely going to suffer some devastating turnovers today that will go down in playoff infamy.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Conference Championship Predictions

Commanders at Eagles (-6.5)

I said in my preview and picks I was taking the Commanders, but can I get a redo? I’m just getting a bad vibe with the Commanders having some big losses in the trenches (Cosmi and DaRon Payne) on both sides of the ball. They were already at a disadvantage against the Eagles, who have the better defense, better run game/OL, and are home.

It’s a lot to overcome, but maybe if Jalen Hurts’ mobility is limited, that will be a great equalizer for this game. They still have Barkley, and I expect him to carve up the Commanders again. But they beat him running for 150 yards last time. The Rams were 13 yards away from beating this team with Barkley going for 200 again. Hell, the Browns (with Predator), Jaguars (with Trevor Lawrence playing terrible), and the Panthers (until the raccoon eater dropped the TD) all nearly won in Philly this year.

A team on a 7-game winning streak can beat this Philadelphia team. I know we should fade rookies in this spot, but what if Daniels is just that 1 of 1 rookie who makes history by getting to the Super Bowl? He’s already carrying the team like a veteran and doing things this postseason no one else has done (forget experience level):

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1882934544984334827

It’s asking a lot of Daniels, but I think he can outplay Hurts, withstand the impact of Barkley, and the Commanders just need a turnover or two to pull off the upset and go to the Super Bowl. We’re overdue for a No. 6 seed going on a miracle run.

Final: Commanders 24, Eagles 20

Bills at Chiefs (-1.5)

The theme for this game for me is turnovers. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the team that has a turnover meltdown loses this game by 10+ points. Which team is more likely to do that? Well, the Bills have fewer turnovers than the Chiefs and are much better at creating takeaways on defense, so that’s an easy call.

However, how crazy would it be if the game didn’t feature a single turnover? Not that crazy. The 42-36 “13 Seconds” game between these teams didn’t have a turnover. The 2024 Chiefs are also the first team in NFL history to play 5 games in a season where neither team turned it over. The only giveaway by either team in the last 8 games was Josh Allen’s deep ball intercepted by the Patriots. That’s it.

Referees are unfortunately the other big talking point. After the absurd reaction to the officiating in KC’s last game, which has been a running theme since the Bengals game in Week 2, I’m not sure the officiating won’t be overcorrected in this game to the point where the Chiefs can’t buy an easy call and are getting hit for the most ridiculous stuff to “balance” things out for the masses of idiots out there.

Every time you threaten the league with a conspiracy that it’s rigged for one team, I’d expect some kind of overcorrection. Maybe it’s calling a phantom DPI on the Chiefs on 3rd-and-long, a dubious roughing penalty for a hit on Josh Allen, and you can count on the Chiefs to get hit for holding to wipe out some good offensive gains (it’s a problem for them period).

Even the ref assignment reeks of “that’ll teach them” as the Chiefs are just 6-5 when Clete Blakeman is their ref, including some of the toughest losses in the Mahomes era (2018 AFC-CG, 54-51, their last home loss on Christmas 2023). He’s flag happy, and that’s not promising.

Purely from a matchup standpoint, the Chiefs should be healthier and have more players to help them in Week 11. I’m still not sold they didn’t try hard to win that game, but 4 targets for Kelce, not a single rush by Mahomes, and some other weird things like overuse of play-action and no QB spy on 4th & 2 vs. Allen tells me they were experimenting and should have some tricks up their sleeves this time Also, getting Nazeeh Johnson away from the field to play Jaylen Watson at corner should help.

Expecting the Bills to have edges at turnovers and refs, I think you also have to give them a better OL advantage. I’m still not sure the Chiefs aren’t hurting themselves by moving Joe Thuney to guard instead of keeping him there and playing DJ Humphries at left tackle. Might be taking away from the run, and that’s another issue. I think Hunt deserves more touches than Pacheco. The Chiefs have all these new, moving pieces (Hopkins, Hollywood) and I’m not sure they’ve figured out how to utilize them all properly yet. The margin for error has been tiny all year and they only lost one game, but it was also to their opponent today. That’s not good news. Harrison Butker also concerns me this year.

Andy Reid has lost 4 title games at home in his career, including twice with Mahomes after getting swept by the 2018 Pats and 2021 Bengals. The 2024 Bills could certainly join that list. It’s hard to bet against the Chiefs after last year’s title run, and then going 16-1 with starters, but maybe the Bills finally have enough to get the job done here.

This feels like a coin flip game and I don’t mean OT. It could just come down to Buffalo finishing +1 in turnovers and beating the Chiefs at their own game by walking that defense down the field for a GW FG with no time left (Tyler Bass’ redemption) after a Pacheco fumble. Yeah, that’s a 1990 NFC-CG Roger Craig reference, the closest three-peat attempt ever. The Chiefs should be properly motivated, but they’ve been playing with fire all year and I fear the Bills are the only team that can burn them in the AFC a step short of glory.

Final: Bills 27, Chiefs 24

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Published by Scott

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