The NFL Week 12 schedule delivered with three games going to overtime where taking the ball first or second was a debate. We also had a 21-point comeback in a game that maybe you should have expected it since one team has consistently been putting in half-assed efforts this year.
But I still heavily lean towards going on defense first in overtime with the new rules. This way you know exactly what you need on offense, you probably will have enough time to move the ball downfield using all four downs, any part of the field you want, and that’s the kind of football we rarely ever see in the NFL. You’re usually working against a major time constraint at the end of a half in the hurry-up offense. Not so much here.
Alas, the Jaguars and Lions both got the ball first and won their games after a score and defensive stop. But not the Colts. They actually let Patrick Mahomes touch the ball last like Kyle Shanahan did in Super Bowl 58 and he made sure they never saw the ball again. Who you’re playing and the context of the game still matter for your overtime decision, but in most cases, I think you’d be better to go on defense first just like they did in college for years. When there’s no sudden death anymore on that first drive? Not a hard choice.
We had seven games with a comeback opportunity this week (six on Sunday). Pretty good drama except for one of the worst Sunday Night Football games.
This season in NFL Stat Oddity:
Colts at Chiefs: Game of the Week
The Chiefs had been the only winless team (0-5) in one-score games this year, and that’s why I think it was important for them to win in adverse conditions on Sunday instead of easily pushing past the Colts by double digits like their other wins this year.
Sure, you don’t want to have a tipped ball getting intercepted by a lineman on the first throw of the game. You don’t want the refs calling bullshit facemask penalties on your right tackle to take a touchdown off the board when he’s a penalty machine enough on his own without phantom calls. You don’t want to fumble in the red zone while you’re still down 20-9 in the fourth quarter, finishing the game minus-2 in turnovers (2-0) and minus-4 in sacks (4-0).
But those mistakes are the reason this game was a grind that the Chiefs needed overtime to win 23-20, a game where they never technically led for any seconds before Harrison Butker’s fifth field goal of the day went through in OT.
Still, I think it’s the kind of clutch win against a good team (Colts were 8-2 and coming off a bye week) that the Chiefs can build from as they accomplished several good things in this game:
- Mahomes threw for 352 yards, ran for 30 more, and limited his 4 sacks to just 6 lost yards.
- Kareem Hunt paced the offense with 30 carries for 104 yards as the Chiefs ran 91 plays to 50 for the Colts, gained 494 yards, and held the ball for 42:35.
- Despite the Colts getting corners Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward together for the first time, the Chiefs found ways to get Rashee Rice (141 yards) and Xavier Worthy (59 yards) open for 200 yards as they led the way instead of a 36-year-old Travis Kelce (43 yards).
- The defense shut down Jonathan Taylor, holding him to 58 yards on 16 carries with nearly half of those yards coming on one run (27 yards).
- Alec Pierce had been hot for Indy but was limited to a single 26-yard catch.
- Daniel Jones was ice cold to finish this game, and the Colts went three-and-out on four straight drives to end it against a KC defense that was No. 24 in three-and-out rate this season.
This is the kind of gut-check win that has defined this run of success for the Chiefs. But it may have all been for naught in overtime after the Chiefs faced a 3rd-and-7 following a 3-yard run by Clyde-Edwards Helaire. Seriously, 2nd-and-10, season the line, and you’re going inside from the shotgun with CEH for 3 yards?
But that’s when Mahomes delivered his most important completion of the season for 31 yards deep to Worthy. Rice had another 20-yard play soon after that as this may have been his best NFL game ever as he finally established that quick connection that produces meaningful YAC in this offense. Then it was a matter of Butker hitting from 27 yards out, which he did for the 23-20 win.
The Chiefs still have some things to work on. But look around the rest of the NFL. Who doesn’t have flaws this year? They can build on this but it is a quick turnaround on Thursday against a Dallas team that can score and is playing with some confidence.
Meanwhile, the Colts (8-3) are in some trouble with the Jaguars a game behind and two games to come against each other. They could even fall out of the playoffs entirely, so the Chiefs may actually find themselves rooting for the Jags to win the AFC South since they actually have a H2H tie-breaker over a team in Indy.
Big missed opportunity from the Colts on a day where Jones was never sacked. Still, they kept going to him with the Chiefs shutting down the run and he didn’t deliver. It’s a problem after how good this offense was for half the season.
Eagles at Cowboys: The Most Half-Assed Team in the NFL
After six games this year, I said that the 2025 Eagles were one of the most half-assed teams in NFL history. A team that could drop 21 points by halftime and be lucky to only add a field goal in the second half like they did in Week 1 against Dallas when they won 24-20.
Well, I haven’t been keeping up with the stat as I see the Eagles haven’t been so bad at this in recent weeks. But Sunday was quite the spectacle as they penned their magnum opus: a 21-0 lead in Dallas in the first 20 minutes followed by the Cowboys outscoring them 24-0 the rest of the day. It’s the fourth time the Cowboys have erased a 21-point deficit to win, their largest comeback deficit in team history.
It’s incredible how this keeps happening to a team that’s trying to repeat. The Eagles scored three touchdowns on three drives before going punt, end of half, punt, punt, punt, missed field goal (56 yards), Saquon Barkley lost fumble, fumbled punt return, and a punt after Jalen Hurts was sacked on a key 3rd-and-2 in a 21-21 game.
Barkley finished with 22 yards on 10 carries and that fumble on a catch in Dallas territory in a tied game. The fumbled punt return actually didn’t end up hurting the Eagles as they stopped the Cowboys on 4th-and-goal from the 1, a curious decision as the Eagles didn’t look capable of putting together another scoring drive after this cold streak.
And they didn’t. Hurts looked like he might have something cooking before a 3rd-and-2 sack changed everything. The Cowboys got the ball back and big catches by Jake Ferguson and George Pickens (playing better than CeeDee Lamb this year) set up the field goal from 42 yards out to win the game with no time left.
The Cowboys had three pass plays of 43-plus yards to three different receivers in this game as they took advantage of some injuries in Philly’s secondary. But the offense has to take ownership on these dismal scoreless halves. They have way too much talent to be doing this, but this is what happens when your offensive coordinator has no clue what he’s doing.
I still don’t think the NFC East is in any jeopardy with the Eagles at 8-3 and the Cowboys at 5-5-1. Remember, no one has repeated as NFC East champs since the 2001-04 Eagles, so this game being the catalyst for another Philadelphia implosion would be an all-timer. But I don’t think we’re there.
However, this keeps Dallas alive in the wild card hunt, and it hurts the Eagles’ chances at that No. 1 seed. With the way this team is playing, taking Eagles first half ML, Bears full game ML on Friday might be a good call this week.
They seem to have forgotten games are 60 minutes long.
Giants at Lions: The Full Jameis Experience
How fun is the Jameis Winston experience when it’s like this? His touchdown catch from 33 yards out in the fourth quarter gave the Gants a 10-point lead, but that’s been their undoing all year. Sure enough, they did it again as Jahmyr Gibbs was incredible with multiple long touchdown runs in this game.
Then I can’t fault the Giants for going for the 4th-and-5 in a 27-24 game instead of kicking a field goal to go up 30-24, which is a 6-point lead, which is fool’s gold. My issue is they called some poor plays on second and third down, which led to the 4th-and-6. Gotta seize that moment as a touchdown there should win the game.
Instead, the Lions got the ball back, and sure enough, their kicker was good from 59 yards out to force overtime. Totally saved the day. Then after Gibbs exploded for 69 yards on the first play of overtime for a touchdown, Winston had his shot to answer and failed. Great fourth-down sack by Aidan Hutchinson to put a stamp on the 34-27 comeback win.
Buccaneers at Rams: First Half TKO
What can be said about SNF? It was one of the most pointless second halves I’ve ever seen in an NFL game as Baker Mayfield couldn’t return after a horrible decision to have him throw a miracle Hail Mary in a 31-7 game when he was already ailing. We’ll see if that costs this team a division title and playoff spot after their third-straight loss.
But just total control for the Rams from the start. Cade Otton’s weird bobbled catch, knees down, ball stripped away for a “pick six” quickly set this one on a path to a disastrous night for the Bucs. Just not giving themselves a fair shot to win.
But yeah, there was just a single field goal added after halftime as the Rams won 34-7. A game where both teams could have agreed to just kneel out the second half and be better for it.
Patriots at Bengals: Defensive Effort Wasted
The rare NFL game where both defenses scored a pick-six. You’re not surprised if Joe Flacco throws one of those, but Drake Maye doing it by lofting a horrible pass right to the Bengals’ defensive back was certainly unexpected.
But the Bengals wasted one of their best defensive efforts this year. Beyond the pick-six, they contained the running game well, and they came up with big stops in the red zone as the Patriots only had one touchdown drive.
But the Ja’Marr Chase suspension for spitting at Jalen Ramsey last week was a big one as Flacco could have used his best weapon in a game where multiple receivers were hurt, including a concussion for Tee Higgins. That left Flacco firing to a random cast on the final drive in a 26-20 game.
He converted a few fourth downs but not the last one to end the game as the Patriots escaped to a league-best 10-2 record. Are they actually that good of a team? I don’t think so. But they keep finding ways to win.
Steelers at Bears: Aaron Rodgers Misses Last Chicago Bout
We’ll see what comes of the Steelers’ season at 6-5, but maybe they’ll regret not letting Aaron Rodgers give it a go against the team he’s owned his whole career. Pittsburgh’s defense was bad in this game again outside of one pressure on Caleb Williams in the end zone that he exacerbated by giving up a strip-sack to T.J. Watt that was recovered for a touchdown.
The Steelers were up to their turnover tricks again, but I feel like they lost the game in three key places:
- After the strip-sack, they got another turnover (hard to see) on a fumble at midfield, but instead of building on their 14-7 lead, they were stopped with Heyward on the Tush Push at midfield, and Chicago drove a short field for the game-tying touchdown. Big swing.
- Mason Rudolph threw a pick on his first deep pass, then tried to get away with dink-and-dunk throws the rest of the way until he got strip-sacked in the late third quarter, which led to a Chicago touchdown and 10-point deficit.
- Down 31-28, Rudolph had a couple of cracks at it and may have gotten it done for at least the tying field goal had the Steelers lined up properly (illegal formation penalty wiped out 22-yard scramble to midfield), then he has to do better on those last throws as Chris Bowell may have been able to make it from 60 to force overtime.
Just a disappointing day for Pittsburgh as it rushed for 186 yards and got a lot of YAC plays again on offense. But they let Caleb Williams get away with too many rough plays that they couldn’t capitalize on.
Vikings at Packers: What If Your QB’s Alter Ego Was One of a Functional Quarterback?
I think it would have been so funny if J.J. McCarthy’s “Nine” alter ego was a quarterback who only had good moments in games against Big Ten-region teams like the ones in his division. A trip to Green Bay (Wisconsin)? Sounds great.
But if Sunday was any indication of what kind of quarterback we’re dealing with here, he won’t be around many more years for the Packers to exploit him in Vikings-Packers games. Green Bay finally covered the big spread with ease this year in a 23-6 win that was never in doubt.
McCarthy threw for just 87 yards and that’s even worse when you take away 35 more yards from the 5 sacks where he flirted with safeties. All Minnesota could do was two long field goals on nine drives as McCarthy was picked twice to end the game.
Green Bay didn’t need to show much on offense to win this one comfortably.
Falcons at Saints: You Are Not Serious Teams
I picked the Falcons (+1.5) to win even without Michael Penix and Drake London because I just thought they were due a win, they’d turn things over to Bijan Robinson and the running game, and that pass rush could stop a rookie (Tyler Shough) in his third start.
Some of that was exactly right, but Kirk Cousins did his defense few favors by throwing a pick-six. Otherwise, the Saints’ offense 3 points on 10 drives. They even missed two field goals, so neither team looked very serious to me in a game between the NFC South’s worst teams.
We’ve fallen a far way from shootouts between Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. Then again, bringing out your quarterback on 4th-and-goal at the 1 so Taysom Hill can throw an incomplete pass to waste half of the third quarter does sound like something late-stage Sean Payton would have done too.
Jaguars at Cardinals: Same Old Script
Seemingly every Jacksonville game in 2025: Trevor Lawrence raises coach Liam Coen’s blood pressure with horrific turnovers, but the defense gets some timely pressures, someone with a private college-sounding name scores a touchdown, and they win by 1-3 points.
Seemingly every Arizona game in 2025: Jacoby Brissett throws a ton of passes, takes a late lead, the defense gives it up, and he can’t close the deal in a one-score loss.
Those two scripts collided on Sunday and the Jaguars moved to 7-4 with another 27-24 overtime win to the chagrin of other AFC fans as this team hasn’t played a lot of good football this year but keeps winning games like this.
They overcame 4 turnovers by Lawrence in this one, and that doesn’t include an ill-advised incompletion on 4th-and-1 that gave Arizona its chance for a game-tying field goal that forced overtime.
It was a little surprising to see the Jaguars want the ball first in overtime, but they made it work out. The offense got a 52-yard field goal, then Brissett reminded us why he’s now 7-25 at game-winning drives after throwing incomplete on 4th-and-4 at the Jacksonville 42.
Seahawks at Titans: 30-24? Really?
Have to pat myself on the back for this one and going with the first-half spread (Seahawks -6.5 or -7.5 depending when you placed it) as the best bet instead of the full-game spread, the Titans going under their team total, or thinking this might be the week for Rashid Shaheed to catch a long touchdown for his new team.
Instead, it was the JSN Show again with 167 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Seahawks led 16-3 at halftime, then 23-3 before eventually winning 30-24 with the backdoor cover open for Cam Ward, who still scored more points than I ever imagined in this one. Granted, the Titans had another return touchdown on a punt.
But these are the games where Seattle looks great. Beating up on the worst teams this year.
Jets at Ravens: Ho-Hum, the Ravens Won Again
Something’s just been off with the Ravens since Lamar Jackson came back. He struggled for a long time to get to 100 passing yards in this game, Derrick Henry only averaged 3.0 yards per carry, they were 2-11 on third down, and they were just fortunate to be playing the Jets, who never really get turnovers this year.
The Jets may have even been ready to pull off the upset as a 13.5-point underdog in Baltimore, but three key moments sunk them in the 23-10 loss:
- Up 7-3 before halftime, Tyrod Taylor took a sack on 3rd-and-2 at the Baltimore 39 and the Jets had to punt instead of adding points.
- After the Ravens took their first lead at 10-7 in the third quarter, the Jets failed on 4th-and-2 at their own 42, setting up the Ravens for a short touchdown drive and 17-7 lead. You don’t have Detroit’s offense anymore, Aaron Glenn. Punt there and make Baltimore earn it on a long field.
- Down 20-10 with 6:58 left, Breece Hall fumbled in the red zone and that’s a wrap.
The Ravens (6-5) are above .500 for the first time this season but that doesn’t make them dangerous yet. Not playing like this on offense against bad teams.
Browns at Raiders: Chip Kelly’s Swansong
Yes, Shedeur Sanders winning his first start gets the headlines, but this one was really about the Cleveland defense sacking Geno Smith 10 times, which has led to offensive coordinator Chip Kelly getting fired Sunday night. He clearly didn’t have much of a line to work with, but he also never really had a plan for Ashton Jeanty either.
Meanwhile, the Browns did a good job of limiting Sanders’ exposure to the pass rush with just 1 sack on 20 throws while still giving him some freedom to make plays, like he did on an early 52-yard completion. I’m not sure what in the Kadarius Toney got into Jerry Jeudy on his fumble play, but that could have been another huge play for the offense to get points, and of course Sampson took a screen 66 yards for a touchdown in the fourth quarter to ice it.
But the Raiders are just hot garbage this year, so I’m not sure this really proves anything either way for Sanders, who should be glad he didn’t get drafted there.
Next week: Thanksgiving means island games coming out the ass this week with three on Thursday (pretty strong slate, to be fair) and a Black Friday game (Bears vs. Eagles) that takes on higher importance now. That’s actually the highlight of the week as the best Sunday can offer is Bills-Steelers, Texans-Colts, and I can’t believe they’ve stuck with Broncos vs. Commanders for SNF. One of those nights I start writing even earlier. Then Giants-Patriots on MNF, which isn’t the most compelling way to start December.
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 