Author: Scott

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 2

~ Scott ~ 20 Comments

We still have a pretty good doubleheader to go on Monday night for Week 2, but this has already been one of the wildest weeks in NFL history. Sure, you probably hear that about 21 times a season, but this time it really does check out.

There was a 21-point comeback in the fourth quarter by the Dolphins in Baltimore, making the Ravens the first team in NFL history to score 38 points with zero turnovers at home and lose in regulation.

There was a 13-point comeback in Cleveland completely manufactured by the Jets (!) after the two-minute warning.

There was a 16-point comeback in Las Vegas with Arizona pulling off the rare 8+8 to force overtime where it won a defensive fumble return for a touchdown. Oh yeah, the Cardinals were also down 20-0 at halftime, becoming the 15th team in NFL history to win after being shut out by at least 20 points at halftime.

The world may have ended if the Atlanta Falcons completed their comeback from a 28-3 deficit against the Rams, but Marcus Mariota was intercepted in the end zone while trailing 31-25 with 1:07 left.

The week started goofy with the Chiefs kicking a game-tying field goal on the first play of the fourth quarter, then winning on a pick-six against the Chargers because tight end Gerald Everett got tired, the team left him out there anyway, and they got properly burned for it.

It also was the saddest day in the history of the AFC North with all four teams losing for the eighth time since 2002. So, while it has happened more often than all but one division, it is hard to imagine any group of losses were more heartbreaking than the ones on Sunday. Here is the total of 0-4 weeks for each division since 2002:

  • NFC West (10)
  • AFC North (8)
  • NFC East (6)
  • AFC South (5)
  • NFC North (5)
  • NFC South (3)
  • AFC West (2)
  • AFC East (0)

With two games to go, we have already had 10 close games this week. Let’s look at some of them as well as quicker views of the embarrassing blowouts (Colts?)

This season in Stat Oddity:

Dolphins at Ravens: Game of the Week (Month? Year?)

Did we witness the creation of a new power in the AFC, or will this game just be a fun footnote on the way to a Chiefs vs. Bills playoff rematch? A lot of weeks to go before that, but this fourth quarter was bananas.

After Lamar Jackson’s 79-yard touchdown run gave the Ravens a 35-14 lead going into the fourth quarter, this game reminded me of when Baltimore blew out the Chargers 34-6 last year. That really threw some cold water on the hype for the 4-1 Chargers under rookie coach Brandon Staley.

New Miami coach Mike McDaniel was not getting that hype just yet after one win over New England where the offense scored 13 points, but there were some high expectations for this year. I picked him for Coach of the Year. After this game, I think the bandwagon is about to grow, especially with Buffalo coming next week.

You win a game with Tua Tagovailoa throwing 50 times for 469 yards and six touchdowns in Baltimore? I know the defense is not anywhere close to what it used to be in Baltimore, but 469/6? Tua? Him?

But when Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill embarrass the defense with over 170 yards and two touchdowns each, that’s the scary potential of this offense. It was enough to spoil a special day by Lamar, who became the first quarterback in NFL history to have multiple games with 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing in his career (318/119). He did not take a sack and the Ravens had no turnovers.

He did get stopped on four consecutive plays while the Dolphins were quickly making their comeback, but he rebounded to lead a go-ahead field goal drive with 2:18 left. That’s an eternity given the way Miami was hitting chunk plays. Sure enough, Tua delivered to Waddle again for a 7-yard touchdown to take a 42-38 lead with 14 seconds left.

Jackson’s Hail Mary came up short to end it. By my count, this is the 10th fourth-quarter comeback win from a deficit of 21+ points in NFL history. The last was when the Eagles did it to the Giants in 2010, winning 38-31 on DeSean Jackson’s punt return touchdown.

Tagovailoa joins the odd company of Neil Lomax and Wade Wilson as the only three quarterbacks to cap off a 21+ point 4QC with a game-winning touchdown pass in the fourth quarter. Troy Aikman threw one for Dallas in overtime against the 1999 Redskins in Week 1.

So, it doesn’t necessarily mean Tua is going to turn into Joe Montana, but this is really encouraging stuff from the quarterback position. One could say the kind of game that a Dan Marino fan would appreciate. Quick, someone come up with a good nickname for Waddle & Hill.

But when I said Hill is worth a couple wins to the Chiefs because of his rare talent, this is exactly the kind of game I’m talking about. This comeback probably does not take place with any other wide receiver. Now do the Chiefs still have that ability to pull out a tough game? We’ll see. They didn’t look great against the Chargers on Thursday. But if the Dolphins can keep this up and start games better, this is going to set up a very intriguing race in the AFC that goes beyond just the Bills and Chiefs.

God knows we need it with the way the Broncos, Colts, Bengals, and Raiders are shitting the bed so far this season.

Jets at Browns: Only in Cleveland

The Jets were my upset special this week, but even I was shocked to find out that they had won this game given the 30-17 deficit so late. I saw the Jets recover an onside kick, but I was still lost in the ending to Dolphins-Ravens and didn’t find out what Cleveland did until several minutes after the game ended.

It was a colossal choke that took all three phases of the team, but it’s also such a Cleveland thing to do. Since 2001, just three NFL teams have lost a game while leading by more than 10 points and the other team getting the ball back in the final three minutes.

All three of those losses belong to Cleveland (click pic to enlarge).

You can’t blame just one person, so let’s blame a few. Let’s start with Kareem Hunt, who twice ran out of bounds to stop the clock when he should have been trying to slide down in bounds. The second time was the most egregious because there was a hole to slide down for the first down that would have ended the game. The Jets were out of timeouts and the clock would have went to the two-minute warning. Game over. But Hunt didn’t do what he needed to and the clock stopped at 2:02.

On the very next play, Nick Chubb decided to run for his third touchdown, and if the Jets really just “allowed” him to do it, then they are geniuses. This was the only hope they had left. This is something else I’ll bitch about once or twice a season, and the Browns proved with the worst-case scenario possible exactly why I’m right and you shouldn’t risk this.

By scoring with 1:55 left, Chubb extended the game instead of ending it. I still think what Hunt did was equally bad if not worse, and Chubb does not deserve the brunt of the criticism. But he had no business scoring that touchdown, which set up an extra point that was missed to keep it a 30-17 game. Another reason you don’t score the touchdown as now you’re open to losing by a point. So now the special teams are in on the mess to come.

Next, it was the defense’s turn. The last thing you could do was give up a quick one, and we know Joe Flacco has some experience at throwing up a bomb in these spots. He hadn’t been able to get big plays in eight quarters, but somehow with the game still alive he caught corner Denzel Ward looking in the backfield and corked a wide-open 66-yard touchdown bomb to Corey Davis on a drive that took 33 seconds. Inexcusable.

You know the onside kick was coming next, and that’s where many of these comebacks stall since they are so hard to get. But the Jets got this one and suddenly Flacco had 80 seconds from midfield to win this game. He did exactly that with a good drive and a 15-yard strike to rookie Garrett Wilson with 22 seconds left.

The Jets led 31-30 after the extra point. The Cleveland offense had such a nice day with Jacoby Brissett showing better precision, Amari Cooper getting his first 100-yard game and touchdown, and the running game putting up big numbers for the second week in a row. And none of it mattered because they got greedy and botched their previous drive that should have ended the game. Then the special teams and defense screwed up multiple plays. Finally, Brissett’s desperate pass while out of timeouts was intercepted to end the game.

What can you say about Flacco? He had himself a day with 307 yards and four touchdown passes, and in the process, he picked up his 20th fourth-quarter comeback win. He is the 34th quarterback to do so, and it’s taken him the second-most games (195) to get there ahead of only Brett Favre.

But I will say Flacco has been involved in three really incredible comebacks from the 2012 AFC divisional win in Denver to the 2013 explosive ending in the snow against Minnesota to this one.

The fact that the two most incredible wins of the Zach Wilson era were started by Mike White (Bengals’ comeback last year) and Flacco here are not encouraging signs for him. But we have to see him this season. We know this team isn’t going anywhere with Flacco.

This was the type of absurd comeback you see maybe once every decade in the NFL.

But only against Cleveland. That’s the key.

Cardinals at Raiders: 8 + 8 + Too Much Grit

After the Cardinals failed to show up for the first half and trailed 20-0, I had no expectations for the second half. I figured Josh McDaniels would run Josh Jacobs a lot and the team would just cruise to a win to get to 1-1.

But this was in some ways the most shocking comeback of the day because of how little trust we’ve had in Arizona, and how many plays they had to string together to pull this off. When Kyler Murray threw incomplete on a 4th-and-1 at the Raiders 11 with 12:31 left in a 23-7 game, I decided to take out the trash. This didn’t look competitive anymore.

But McDaniels’ play-calling has been so suspect through two games, and the next drive that saw Derek Carr throw three incompletions and burn nine seconds should be getting crucified here. Do coaches not understand how important it is to burn clock anymore? Sometimes, even that three runs and a punt drive that takes two minutes is more valuable than whatever that was by the Raiders.

Maybe it wasn’t 28-9, but 23-7 is hard because few teams ever pull off 8+8 in this league. At least one of those two-point conversions usually fail, so they end up needing three possessions.

But to Murray’s credit, he hung in there on the first touchdown drive and capped it off with a scramble for the two-point conversion that maybe only he could do right now. The Raiders burned a little more time, but Murray had 4:43 to answer a 23-15 deficit.

As I seem to write a long rant about a couple times a season, the Cardinals were not in a super hurry to get the touchdown given the “information” that they were down eight points. It ended up being an insanely tough drive that had to overcome three fourth-down situations, and on the final play at the 3-yard line, Murray scrambled for another touchdown with no time left.

But even then, a secondo two-point conversion was needed just to go to overtime. Murray found A.J. Green in the end zone and the veteran held on for a great catch to tie the game. By my count, the Cardinals are just the fourth team in NFL history to win a game after erasing a 16-point deficit in the fourth quarter with two touchdowns and two two-point conversions:

  • 2004 49ers vs. Cardinals (trailed 28-12, won 31-28 in overtime)
  • 2016 Patriots vs. Falcons (first cut 28-9 to 28-12, then won 34-28 in overtime)
  • 2021 Ravens vs. Colts (trailed 25-9, won 31-25 in overtime)
  • 2022 Cardinals at Raiders (trailed 23-7, won 29-23 in overtime)

But even in overtime the Cardinals looked dead in the water after Murray threw incomplete on a fourth-and-1 at the Las Vegas 37. Carr just needed a couple first downs for field-goal range, and Hunter Renfrow picked up a third down before fumbling. The team recovered it though. However, just two plays later, Renfrow fumbled again, and this time it was scooped up and returned 59 yards for a game-deciding touchdown. Unbelievable.

This was just the sixth time in NFL overtime history that a team won by returning a fumble for a touchdown. That includes the playoffs, as Arizona fans should enjoy (2009 NFC wild card vs. Green Bay).

Just a miraculous win from one of the teams you’d least expect to pick things up after a 20-0 first half. But both teams are guilty of bad coaching to start this season.

Falcons at Rams: The Most Dangerous Lead in the NFL

The Rams kept Matthew Stafford clean (one sack), got Allen Robinson much more involved with a touchdown, and kept rolling with Cooper Kupp on the way to a 31-10 lead in the fourth quarter.

And yet, they almost blew what was once a 28-3 lead to the team that will take that score to their graves. Having a bet on Rams -10, I just knew bad things were coming once the Rams failed at the 1-yard line early in the fourth quarter with a 28-10 lead. They settled for a field goal to make it 31-10, but no lead was truly safe on Sunday.

The Falcons got one touchdown drive, then blocked a punt in devastating fashion – that punter got crushed – and returned that for a touchdown. I liked the call to go for two, and Drake London really is showing why he was the first wideout off the board in the draft. His catch made it a 31-25 game, Kupp actually made a mistake and fumbled, and this shit was really going to happen a week after the Falcons blew a 26-10 lead in the fourth quarter.

Two 21-point fourth-quarter leads blown by home teams expected to make the playoffs in the same day? Insane.

It is hard to say the Falcons hit us with a “they are who we thought they were!” since we thought this team was going to get crushed like it often did in 2021. But this team has been fighting the first two weeks and may eventually get some wins to show for it. It just wasn’t happening this time as Marcus Mariota threw an interception in the end zone to Jalen Ramsey with 1:07 left. D’oh.

The Rams still had to take an intentional safety after they wouldn’t dare punt again after the way the Falcons attacked the last one. That’s how it got to 31-27, but Mariota was sacked on the final play before he could try a Hail Mary, and Aaron Donald was there for a cheap fumble recovery.

We may be talking about the defense being the most unreliable part of this Los Angeles team, but it’d be nice to see them play a normal game that isn’t 31-10 in the fourth quarter first.

Buccaneers at Saints: I Hope Jameis’ Cousin in The Afghanistan Didn’t Watch This

No recent defense makes Tom Brady look so bad like Dennis Allen’s Saints since 2020, but too bad the offense always seems to be injured for these games. Beyond Alvin Kamara missing the game, Jameis Winston played with a bad back and it showed. While no stranger to mistakes, he really let it all hang out in the fourth quarter after a tight battle that saw the Saints shut out Brady for another half on the heels of last year’s 9-0 win in Tampa Bay.

But in a 3-3 game in the fourth quarter, things just started to crumble for Winston, who took six sacks and ended three straight drives with an interception, gift-wrapping the last 10 points to Tampa Bay in a 20-10 loss.

Had it not been for that last New Orleans touchdown, Todd Bowles’ defense would be sitting on two games of allowing six points and scoring seven with a pick-six in this one. Still, a net 6 points allowed in two games is really strong work. Now we’ll see if they can do that to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, which would be a repeat of what they did to a far better Green Bay machine in 2020.

Also, I know it looks impossible for Brady to smile these days, but the amount of bitching he did on Sunday was worse than usual. I am getting a 2019 Patriots vibe already with this team. Once the defense stops playing at a historic level, expect mediocrity. We’ll see how long they can hold out with the Packers and Chiefs coming up next. But frankly, all three of those teams look weaker this season.

Patriots at Steelers: The Meh Bowl

Well, the good news is the Steelers had the most respectable loss in the AFC North on Sunday. But for as long as I have watched the NFL (mid-90s), Patriots vs. Steelers has always meant something in the AFC. You have to go back to 1991 to find the last meeting between the two where neither made the playoffs or had a winning record. Could these teams be headed that way this year? They are no longer the favorite or even second favorite in their divisions.

The game itself reflected a lot of that “meh” rebranding for these teams in the wake of recent departures of their Hall of Fame quarterbacks. But I will take Mac Jones over Mitch Trubisky in a heartbeat. Jones at least found his receivers, Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor, down the field on multiple occasions. Agholor made a fantastic 44-yard touchdown catch in the second quarter. Trubisky was picked and could not move the ball well, leading the offense to 30 points in two games so far.

The Pittsburgh defense basically has to play perfect for this team to win, and that is asking for too much without T.J. Watt. But the sequence of the game was in the third quarter. The defense dropped a second Jones interception at midfield. That led to a punt, which was muffed by the Steelers, which led to a 10-yard touchdown drive for the Patriots and 17-6 lead.

Despite Trubisky leading the offense’s only touchdown drive of the game, he had no follow-up act in a 17-14 game. On a couple of third downs, he seemed determined to go to Najee Harris. Neither play worked. Neither play made much sense with the other weapons the Steelers have. The Patriots were able to run out the final six minutes on the clock and win the game.

I really think Mike Tomlin has to look at this Week 3 game in Cleveland on Thursday night as a final audition for Trubisky. He is not the future for this team. He is not shining to help them turn him for a draft pick if some other team’s starter is injured. Maybe Kenny Pickett won’t be any better. Maybe he’ll be worse. But I’d just like to see something happen there because Trubisky isn’t making it happen on the field. People wanted Ben Roethlisberger benched after last year’s slow start, but this is the same chickenshit offense being run by offensive coordinator Matt Canada.

We can make jokes about the Patriots using Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to run the offense with Josh McDaniels gone, but based on the way these units performed on Sunday, the real joke is that the Steelers won’t fix this broken offense.

Bengals at Cowboys: Another Backup Beats Cincinnati

I said all week Cooper Rush and the Cowboys would surprise people and the Bengals are overrated, but even I didn’t expect this upset, wire-to-wire win for Dallas. Hell, I thought Brett Maher missed that 50-yard field goal at the buzzer, but apparently it did sneak in there for the win. Bengals are now 0-2 after watching teams execute long field goals against them while they couldn’t get an extra point or 29-yard field goal to work. What a bummer.

But once again, Mike McCarthy deserves some credit for getting a backup quarterback ready to play. The Cowboys still have offensive talent despite the injuries, and we should just admit that Dak Prescott played poorly in Week 1. I am not surprised the offense gutted out 20 points at home against a defense that couldn’t stop Mitch Trubisky in overtime. Not to mention this team lost to Mike White last year. Why not get an adequate game from Cooper Rush with CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalton Schultz, and Noah Brown on his side?

Micah Parsons can do his best T.J. Watt impersonation and lead that defense to a good day to keep the score down and the game winnable. They did exactly that with six sacks of Joe Burrow, who became the 11th quarterback to start a season by taking at least six sacks in consecutive games. Russell Wilson was the last to do it in 2018, so it’s not something exclusive to bums, but it is not a good sign for the new offensive line or Burrow’s development. He is going to see plenty of good pass rushers this season and will need to do a better job of cutting down those sacks.

But hats off to the Cowboys for not giving up a single 20-yard play to the Bengals. They were good against Tampa Bay last week too. Now if they can just get Dak healthy and get someone like Michael Gallup back, then maybe we have something here. But the good news is Rush was able to lead a game-winning drive, his second in two NFL starts. He might be able to hold the fort until Prescott can return.

Texans at Broncos: Can Hackett Hack It in the NFL?

If the Texans had just a little more punch to their offense, they would be 2-0 right now with wins over what are apparently two slow starters in the Colts and Broncos. Maybe these teams just aren’t going to be as good as we thought they’d be with the quarterback changes.

But one thing I warned for both the Colts and Broncos is that Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson are not taking over teams with as much elite talent like the 2009 Vikings (Brett Favre), 2012 Broncos (Peyton Manning), 2020 Buccaneers (Tom Brady), and 2021 Rams (Matthew Stafford). They would be improvements over the quarterbacks that were there, hopefully get good defensive support, and give them an edge in close games as they are two of the most prolific ever at accumulating comebacks and game-winning drives.

Well, Wilson got his first Denver comeback win, but he played one of his shittiest first three quarters to end up in that situation. But I will not blast him for this section. He threw the game-winning touchdown and got that done. Speaking of elite talent, the team lost wide receiver Jerry Jeudy and corner Patrick Surtain II during the game, which certainly hurts.

But it’s the coaching. Jesus Christ, Nathaniel Hackett has had a coaching start so uninspiring that I think I had more faith in Urban Meyer this time a year ago. The 2022 Broncos are the sixth team on record to have at least a dozen penalties in their first two games. It’s the procedure of getting the play in on time that is so jacked right now as the Broncos had two more delay of game penalties on kicks. It’s the horseshit calls on 3rd-and-1, like giving the ball to tight end Andrew Beck on an end around, or all the terrible passes and decisions inside the 2-yard line.

Like the Colts, the Broncos are doing this against Seattle and Houston, two teams projected to be among the worst in the NFL this year. We saw how well Seattle handled the 49ers on Sunday, a team they owned with Wilson.

Maybe the grass isn’t always greener on the other side. We’ll see what happens. All I know is if you see someone bring up Peyton starting 1-2 in Denver in 2012, just shut them up quickly. That team lost to a 13-3 Atlanta team that was the No. 1 seed, and they lost to a 12-4 Houston team that started 11-1 and was leading the AFC into December. The Broncos also scored 46 points in those two games with rallies that came up a score short. It’s not the same.

It was never going to be that good. But this has been embarrassing so far for Hackett and frankly for Wilson too.

Panthers at Giants: Updating the Rhules

Oh, don’t mind me, just updating the pathetic Matt Rhule records in Carolina after another game was lost at the end. This time it was a 19-16 defeat against the 2-0 Giants:

  • 0-15 in game-winning drive opportunities
  • 1-25 when allowing 17 or more points
  • 0-22 when allowing more than 21 points
  • 2-24 when not leading by at least 7 points at halftime
  • 3-25 when not leading by double digits at halftime

I could be wrong on this, but I think this is the first time the Giants have won consecutive games after trailing by at least seven points in the second half since 1970 (Weeks 8-9). Imagine how many decades it would take Rhule to do that.

Hurry-Up Finish

Since I would like to get to bed, here are some quick thoughts on the other four games that were not close.

Colts at Jaguars: If the Colts aren’t going to bother showing up in Jacksonville, then I’m not going to bother giving them a deeper recap. I knew this game was trouble, and I may have changed my pick if I knew earlier that Michael Pittman was out. He’s the only reliable receiver for Matt Ryan at this moment. The Colts have started poorly under Frank Reich in the past, but I would be really alarmed that they were pushed around for all but one quarter so far by the Texans and Jaguars. What’s a team like the Colts going to do to them? Oh yeah, we’ll find out next week. Something tells me it won’t be 19-13 this time. As for Trevor Lawrence, apparently hosting the Colts is him in his element in the NFL. His two best games are arguably both Indy games at home.

Commanders at Lions: Maybe Amon-Ra St. Brown has some Antonio Brown in him. Hopefully just the good parts like how he racks up catches week after week.

He did it for an eighth game in a row with his best NFL game yet. Jared Goff threw four touchdowns against Jack Del Rio’s overrated defense filled with first-round picks. Carson Wentz made some plays after it was 22-0, but I feel like this one encapsulates Washington’s day the best:

Seahawks at 49ers: It was sad to see Trey Lance break his ankle just five quarters into his first season as the starting quarterback. When I wrote in my 49ers preview that him getting injured in September was on the table for how his season could go, I certainly did not want to see that happen. Hopefully he can come back strong without complications. It puts Jimmy Garoppolo right back in the QB1 role. He was the best backup in the league, but let’s see if he can make the third time the charm should this team get to the playoffs. As for Seattle, well shit. That’s the kind of pathetic performance – their only score was a blocked field goal for a touchdown – that I expected in these matchups when I said 5-12 at best. My confidence in Seattle keeping it close like usual against San Francisco was not rewarded. It’s the first time the Seahawks lost by double digits to the 49ers since the 2011 opener.

Bears at Packers: For the second year in a row, the Packers followed a brutal Week 1 loss with an easy Week 2 win at home against one of their NFC North stooges. As long as they can do that, then you can’t count them out from a high playoff seed. But a real test for this offense comes in Tampa Bay next week. As for Chicago, do they really trust Justin Fields if he has nine pass attempts (plus three sacks) almost 58 minutes into a game they were trailing 27-10? That was not a good look for him.

We survived another Bears-Packers game in prime time. Bring on Titans-Bills and Vikings-Eagles, because they should be much better than the Week 3 island game slate (Steelers-Browns, Broncos-49ers, Cowboys-Giants).

NFL Week 2 Predictions: Haves vs. Have Nots

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It really feels like the NFL stacked this Week 2 schedule at the front (LAC/KC) and back (BUF/TEN, MIN/PHI) and forgot about Sunday.

Also, I have no idea why there is a doubleheader on Monday night in Week 2, and it’s not even a true doubleheader since the games will be going on simultaneously. But I wrote about how Justin Jefferson could follow Cooper Kupp’s lead last year to an Offensive Player of the Year award and maybe more if Kirk Cousins can pull off a Matthew Stafford.

But I really do think the Sunday schedule is lacking tomorrow. Part of that isn’t really the NFL’s fault as Bengals-Cowboys could have been a fun game based on last year, but we didn’t know the Cowboys would be this injured already, especially Dak Prescott again. But check the picks below as I think Cooper Rush can surprise some people.

The weird thing about this week is that five games already have a team favored by 9.5 points, or another way of saying favored to win by double digits.

That is a lot for Week 2, because the spreads usually grow later in the season once we see these teams separate from one another. For example, there were five Week 2 games in 2019-21 combined (three seasons) where a team was favored by double digits. We’re possibly matching that this week depending on where the lines close.

This hasn’t happened in a while. The 2007 and 2006 seasons both had five Week 2 games with a 9.5+ point spread. It usually happens once or twice a season since. If this holds, then 2022 will tie 2006 and 2007 for the most Week 2 games on record of having a spread this big.

In Week 1, we observed a lot of unusually high underdogs at home (5.5+ points) for an opener.

So, what is going on with this season from a betting perspective? Is it a case of the haves vs. have nots?

Maybe some of it is the preseason predictions still carrying too much weight, and teams like Denver and San Francisco may not be as good as we thought they’d be with new quarterbacks. At the same time, maybe teams expected to be among the very worst like Seattle and Atlanta may actually be halfway decent.

We know Week 2 can always be the toughest week of the season to predict because you’re trying to wrap your head around what was real and what was an outlier in the first game. But something I’m looking at for this week’s slate is division familiarity and motivation, and how those factors can change sharply from last week. Here are some examples:

Are the Rams really going to be that bad this year, or were they just playing the Super Bowl favorites from Buffalo who haven’t punted in four of their last six games now? Something tells me the Falcons won’t look that good this week as they did last week when they blew a 16-point lead to division rival New Orleans. Guess what happened last year? A bad Atlanta team blew an 18-point 4Q lead (in less time even than last week) to the Saints, but Matt Ryan got the ball back with enough time to get a FG and avoid the blown lead. I’m not worried about the Rams yet.

Speaking of Ryan, after that slow start in Houston, another division team that usually plays Indy close outside of 2021, I think he has a chance to do big things this week. Sure, the Colts have shit the bed in Jacksonville every year since 2015, but I think he’ll be okay in this game. Still, it’s not one I’d be betting good money on for ML or spread.

Meanwhile, is Houston going to look that decent in Denver? Are the Broncos really this badly coached, or was it just a tough debut in a loud place to play with everyone fired up to beat Russell Wilson? At the same time, will the Seahawks play that well in San Francisco? Oh, that is one I can believe. The 49ers haven’t beat Seattle by 10+ points since the 2011 opener. Kyle Shanahan without Jimmy Garoppolo should not be trusted. The evidence keeps growing by the week. That’s another game I’d avoid ML bets.

NFL Week 2 Predictions

Justin Herbert seriously went from a painful looking injury that prevented him from running for an easy first down on a third down to throwing the pass of the night on fourth-and-1. It led to a touchdown and late cover for the Chargers, who I picked to lose 28-21 on the night. At least the under hit.

I picked the Jets for an upset at first, but I think I’ll just stick with the cover. It seems like every year the Jets are a team I keep betting ATS early, thinking they can’t be this bad, but time and time again, they prove me wrong. They are this bad. But we’ll see against Cleveland.

I think Tom Brady gets his first regular-season win over the Saints with Tampa, but I’d be lying if I said I felt confident about it. Saints look as unpredictable as last year.

This might be the Steelers-Patriots game with the least impact on the AFC since they met in 1991 during bad seasons. Not used to this not being a big game, but I expect low scoring and close. Just can’t imagine Trubisky avoids the big turnovers again this week. The Patriots haven’t been getting takeaways, but all those recent games with 0s in that column were against the Bills and Dolphins. The AFC East has absolutely caught up to them (Jets aside). They won’t be able to beat the Steelers the way they used to, but Mac Jones can dink and dunk to a high completion percentage at least. No T.J. Watt was the deciding factor for me. This is the kind of game he could win on his own with splash plays.

Dolphins-Ravens is potentially the best game on Sunday. We’ll see if the Ravens can protect Lamar Jackson this time. Miami roughed him up good on Thursday night last year. I like Tyreek Hill to score his first touchdown of the season.

I am giving the Cowboys a shot at covering against the Bengals. Maybe Cooper Rush can put on his best Mike White impression. The difference is Rush has a start and 300-yard game and win under his belt over Minnesota last year. Cowboys were beyond bad on offense last week, but maybe Micah Parsons can harass Joe Burrow into more turnovers and sacks. The defense has to get the job done for Dallas now.

On Monday, I think the Bills get some revenge on Tennessee for losses the last two years, but I’m not ready to count out the Titans from keeping it close.

Vikings-Eagles really might be the game of the week as Chargers-Chiefs didn’t quite deliver on expectations. If both of these teams are going to win 10+ games and win division titles, it will be interesting to see how they perform Monday as those are the opponents that both have been losing to for years. The Eagles are 1-15 against playoff teams since drafting Jalen Hurts. The Vikings usually never beat a good team not named the Packers. Looking forward to this one and I think I may end up watching more of it than the Buffalo game.

Why I have to choose at all between two games on a Monday in Week 2? Damned if I knew…

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 1

~ Scott ~ 21 Comments

Ain’t that a kick in the head?

The first Sunday of the 2022 NFL season delivered on the drama, even if it unexpectedly came from the low-scoring early slate. But that fabled “Witching Hour” as RedZone’s Scott Hanson calls the 3:00-4:00 ET window extended well past that time with nearly two AFC games ending in 20-20 ties.

Yep, kickers were on their bullshit again, but only certain ones. You can’t trash the whole position on Sunday as kickers helped win games for Cleveland, New Orleans, and Pittsburgh. But they also did their part to dramatically not win games for Cincinnati, Tennessee, Indianapolis, and to some extent Atlanta. There also was some near Chargering going on in LA, but more on that later.

All I know is it’s good to be back talking about the oddities of the NFL.

Upsets and Unusual Suspects Winning Close Games

We’ll see what final number the lines close at, but Week 1 could have as many as seven games where the home team was an underdog of at least 5.5 points. The previous high was four games in 1978. You knew some upsets would happen, and so far, the 49ers lost in Chicago, and the Colts (-7.5) only got a tie in Houston. On the flip side, the Bengals and Titans lost at home as favorites of at least 5.5 points.

This week has had eight games with a comeback opportunity, which is almost average heading into MNF. But something that really stood out to me was that a lot of the quarterbacks and coaches known for losing close games came out winners on Sunday.

Of the five blown leads in the fourth quarter this week, four were against Carson Wentz, Jacoby Brissett, Jameis Winston, and Daniel Jones. See the bottom cluster here if you want to be surprised by that list. Brissett’s came against Mayfield’s team, which is probably fitting.

Meanwhile, rookie head coaches Matt Eberflus (Bears) and Brian Daboll (Giants) had big double-digit comeback wins with their teams in the first games of their careers. That means they’ve had a winning record in the NFL before Kyle Shanahan ever has. But take note of who is on the bottom here:

Eight of the nine coaches with a win percentage under 32% in 4QC/GWD opportunities were at it in close ones on Sunday. They finished a respectable 3-4-1. Let’s see how they did it.

Steelers at Bengals: When Pyrrhic Meets Pathetic

Where do I even start? I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen a game go from:

  • ~95% Steelers win (after fourth-down stop at 1:51) to
  • ~99% Bengals win (after Ja’Marr Chase TD at 0:02) to
  • ~50/50 for either team to win (start of OT) to
  • ~99% Bengals win again (before 29-yard field goal attempt) to
  • ~70% Steelers win (before Boswell’s 55-yd FG hits upright) to
  • ~80% Bengals win (before sack knocks Cincy out of field goal range) to
  • ~90% ending in tie to
  • ~75% Steelers win (before Boswell’s 53-yd FG at 0:05) to
  • ~100% Steelers win (after he made it at 0:00)

Joe Burrow had maybe the wildest example of a Week 1 Super Bowl hangover game of all time. Four turnovers in the first half, finished with four interceptions, a pick-six, seven sacks, and two fumbles (one lost). Truly a sight to behold for the 21st century of NFL quarterback play.

And he probably should have won this game because the Steelers ran their same chickenshit offense they’ve been running since 2020. For 2.5 quarters, the Steelers basically had one trick play to their tight end as their only offensive credit. The immediately-stopped runs and immediately-tackled short throws were all still there. Mitch Trubisky couldn’t get the wide receivers involved.

Once the Bengals pulled to within 17-14, we had to see more of a real offensive approach from the Steelers. Not just relying on a pick-six, short field, and that one awesome trick play to Pat Freiermuth. Predictably, this meant a quarterback wearing #10, running for his life, and making inaccurate incompletions. My Kordell Stewart PTSD was triggered.

Meanwhile, CBS’ Charles Davis, who is usually solid, was calling the game. He said he’d rather have the quarterback who starts 17/42, but goes 6-of-6 on the last drive to win the game, then said Burrow is proven in the fourth quarter. For one, the quarterback who starts 17/42 is likely going 6/6 on a drive when he’s down 21 points in garbage time.

And Burrow is not proven in the fourth quarter. In fact, he’s now 2-10 (.167) at 4QC opportunities, the worst record among active starters. He’s thrown big picks against the Bears, Packers, Jets, and now Steelers in those spots the last two years. This is what happens when you conflate an AFC Championship Game comeback, where the Bengals never trailed in the fourth quarter, with success late in games of coming back to win.

Not even Burrow’s fifth pick or a fourth-and-goal at the 2 stop with 1:51 left could ice this one for Pittsburgh. Without Ben Roethlisberger, not only does the team miss his two-minute offense, but they miss his four-minute offense to ice games. The Steelers lost a timeout after an injured run by Najee Harris, then Trubisky threw a dangerous incompletion to stop the clock again, botching the situation.

Burrow had almost 90 seconds to drive 60 yards for the win. He did his part with Chase making a 6-yard touchdown catch with two seconds left. It looks like the Steelers blew another 14-point lead to the Bengals, one of the only teams to get them in that spot since the Bill Cowher era.

But with a shakeup at long snapper, the timing of the extra point was off, and Minkah Fitzpatrick came in for a huge blocked kick to send the game into overtime. Unbelievable.

Even when the Bengals had a 29-yard field goal attempt in overtime to win the game, you didn’t think it could happen again. But the snap by Mitchell Wilcox, the emergency snapper, was high this time, and the kick was wide left. For a team that had made a 59-yard field goal in the first half that was as straight and awesome as any 59-yard kick I’ve ever seen, this game highlighted just how important the snap and hold are to the kicking process. This loss wasn’t kicker Evan McPherson’s fault.

Fully expecting a tie with 56 seconds to go when the Steelers got the ball back, I was surprised to see Trubisky step up with two big completions to Freiermuth to set up Boswell again. This time, Boswell was good from 53 yards to seal the unbelievable 23-20 win.

Few games in Week 1 will seemingly define a team’s season as much as this one could for both of these teams. And frankly, I don’t think either team should feel good after this. Burrow was terrible and full of mistakes, but he still had them in position to win. Tee Higgins going down with a concussion wasn’t good either. He’ll be back soon most likely.

But what about T.J. Watt and Najee Harris? Both left this game for Pittsburgh, and a torn pec is the fear with Watt. He’s so dominant when he is healthy, but that is becoming increasingly rare like his older brother post-2014. It would be a huge blow to lose someone capable of winning Defensive Player of the Year again.

The Steelers can’t live on takeaways like this. I know they somehow average 0.7 more takeaways per game (and rising) in games without Roethlisberger, but they were an extra point away from losing despite a 5-0 edge in turnovers.

Experiencing this game was insane. But in the end, I think it just makes me glad I picked Baltimore to win the AFC North this year.

Raiders at Chargers: McDaniels Not Starting 6-0 This Time

If this is the Derek Carr that’s going to show up in big AFC West games this season, then I am glad I picked them to finish last. Carr tied his career high with three interceptions and took five sacks, including a strip-sack by former Raider Khalil Mack with 1:52 left on a huge fourth down.

Carr was locked on so much to Davante Adams (10/17 for 141 yards, TD) that he seemed to forget Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow existed for the first three quarters. Josh McDaniels also did not show out well in this debut with a trick play that saw Adams get sacked by Joey Bosa. Save that cutesy stuff when you’re trying to win with the talent the Patriots had since their last Super Bowl win. The Raiders have a hell of a trio that you can create mismatches with, and Carr only seemed interested in getting the ball to Adams.

Meanwhile, Justin Herbert was razor sharp and played great, spreading the ball around to nine receivers with multiple receptions. But without much on the ground and too many drives stalling for field goals, this got into the danger zone for the Chargers late.

It did not help that the Chargers missed a 49-yard field goal not long after the Raiders made one from 55 yards. That led to a 24-19 game, and Carr was getting the ball back with 3:30 left.

If Carr could play like ass for 57 minutes, then hog all the glory for a penalty flag-aided game-winning drive after his team kept him in it, then McDaniels truly can make him his Brady.

But it was not to be this time. Last year, the Chargers blew numerous games just like this one. But this time, they had Mack on defense and he delivered in the big spot, getting to Carr on fourth down for the sack and loose ball.

Sony Michel ended up icing the game with a 3-yard run on a third-and-2. No blowing a 14-point lead at home, and the Chargers even covered the 3.5-point spread. Herbert finally seeing some of the defensive help he needed the last two years.

Now we will see how the Chargers fare in a huge road test on a short week in Kansas City. They won there last September in another wild game. The Week 15 rematch was my No. 1 game of the 2021 regular season. High expectations here.

Chiefs at Cardinals: I Fvcking Love Patrick Mahomes…

Do I bring back the weekly segment? The Chiefs came out on fire to start another season. No Tyreek Hill? No problem if Arizona is going to blitz so much when the smart move should have been to double Travis Kelce and drop 7-8 into coverage. They never even sacked Patrick Mahomes for all that trouble.

Kelce had 121 yards and the first of six touchdowns for the offense. Even with JuJu Smith-Schuster committing the obligatory Chiefs fumble, he looked good and useful in his debut with 79 yards.

On nine drives, Patrick Mahomes led six touchdowns, one field goal to close the first half, the aforementioned JuJu fumble, and just one punt forced by Arizona. He threw five touchdown passes, already doing so for the eighth time in his career, which only trails the big three you could guess.

I really thought Arizona would take this as an opportunity to show us something more after a bad finish to 2021 and an embarrassing offseason. But Kyler Murray was nothing special, and something called Greg Dortch kept getting all the targets. The offense isn’t whole with Rondale Moore injured and DeAndre Hopkins suspended, but that’s still no excuse to see Murray throw a pass away on a fourth down.

I’d say I already hate my Arizona playoff pick, but the whole NFC West looks pretty bad at the moment. Arizona just seems to have the worst coaching of all the teams.

As for the Chiefs, we already get one of the best games on the schedule with the Chargers coming to town this Thursday. Can’t wait for that one.

Buccaneers at Cowboys: Spare Us Anymore Sequels

On the plus side, we’ll probably never have to see Tom Brady play America’s Team again, especially not in prime-time setting. This was a great game to open the 2021 season, but it was easy to see this was going to be a rough one with Dallas losing Amari Cooper, Cedrick Wilson Jr., La’el Collins, Tyron Smith, James Washington, and Michael Gallup.

This was never going to be the same offense this year. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers were a bit different too without Rob Gronkowski and Ali Marpet, but they still have Mike Evans, who caught the game’s only touchdown, and Leonard Fournette, who rushed for 127 yards. Even Julio Jones showed up and made a spectacular 48-yard catch for the game’s only 25-yard play.

It figures, the Cowboys step up on defense and hold Brady to one touchdown while sacking him twice and limiting Tampa to numerous field goal attempts. And it did not matter one bit as the offense was as inept as we’ve seen in the Prescott era in the 19-3 loss.

Worse, Prescott left the game with a thumb injury that could keep him out 6-8 weeks. This suddenly looks like a team that could start 0-6. I knew things were going to be disappointing for Dallas, but this was far worse to watch. And it’s about to get bleaker.

Packers at Vikings: Green Bay Should Just Forfeit Week 1 Next Year

Remember when the Packers were blown out 38-3 in Week 1 last year against the Saints, and we just chalked it up to playing in Jacksonville unexpectedly, and joked that aging Aaron Rodgers does poorly in Florida? That game really did not matter in the end.

Well, they did something similarly lifeless in Minnesota on Sunday, and this time it may be a lingering issue. What better game to showcase how an elite wide receiver talent can help an offense? Justin Jefferson was arguably at his best with a career-high 184 yards and two touchdowns. He did half that damage from the slot, half from outside the numbers, and he can challenge for the first 2,000-yard season if Kevin O’Connell is going to use him like Cooper Kupp last year.

It also will happen if defenses leave him all alone as no Packer was within 10 yards on Jefferson’s 64-yard grab. But the fact is Jefferson had two long gains in this game that gained 100 yards and a touchdown. Two plays. Meanwhile, the Packers struggled without Davante Adams, finishing with one 25-yard pass play: a meaningless 25-yard completion from backup Jordan Love to rookie Christian Watson, who dropped a would-be 75-yard touchdown on the first offensive snap of the day.

I know there’s some “if Watson catches that ball, it’s a different day” energy with that one, but the fact is second-round rookies are not expected to be stars in Week 1 for good reason. Maybe by the rematch Watson is a big factor, but the Packers did not have the answers in Week 1. Only running back A.J. Dillon (46 yards), who got stopped cold at the goal line on a fourth-down stand, broke 40 receiving yards for Green Bay.

We have gotten so used to Minnesota splitting with Green Bay that this was not a surprise, but 23-7? It was 34-31 last year and 28-22 in 2020. Kirk Cousins is now 5-4-1 against the Packers with Rodgers at quarterback. Maybe he’ll do his .500 thing and blow the rematch, but this just might be the first move in Minnesota taking the NFC North from Green Bay.

Colts at Texans: Just Missing the Rosencopter

Nothing says throwback to the late 00s like the Texans blowing a 17-point fourth-quarter lead to the Colts. How great would that storyline have been? On a day where his old team blows a 16-point lead at home in the fourth quarter, Matt Ryan leads 17-point rally in Indy debut.

And it all was set up to happen if kicker Rodrigo Blankenship was worth his roster spot. He missed the game-winning kick against the Ravens last season, and he contributed to a tie in this one after missing from 42 yards out in overtime with 1:57 left. The Texans basically wimped out and played for the tie, as new coach Lovie Smith confirmed.

But I will say, Blankenship and moreso head coach Frank Reich, who has had some brutal Week 1s, deserve some credit for the game getting this far. While I did not read any actual criticism on Twitter as I was too busy following Steelers-Bengals, I imagine some took offense to Reich kicking a field goal from the 4-yard line while the Colts were down 20-3 with 10:47 left.

There always seems to be this disconnect with crunching numbers to win the game vs. what NFL teams actually do in this spot and what makes logical sense. Teams down 17 are thinking about the tie before the win. If you are down 17 and crunched for time, a field goal is going to factor in at some point. After three straight incompletions by Ryan from the 4, you may as well get your high % three now or else the game is already over with 10:44 left since you’d need to manufacture three more scoring drives after getting the ball back.

Kick the field goal, extend the game, because teams in this league do crazy, dumb shit. Just two plays later, Davis Mills took a strip-sack and the Colts were 20 yards away from a touchdown. Shades of 2008.

It is definitely worrisome that it took the Colts that long to get their first touchdown against Houston on a short field, but Ryan delivered later with the game-tying drive. But I will also say Reich did his kicker no favors in overtime with a 3-yard loss on a Jonathan Taylor run and a 5-yard sack taken by Ryan. After a Taylor run on first down put the ball at the Houston 16, it is easy to say just kick the 34-yard field goal and end this. But there is a counter argument to burning more clock and leaving Houston less time if the kick is no good. I see that argument, but we’re talking about a 34-yard field goal. That should be 95% at least.

The Colts only coming away with a 20-20 tie is disappointing as many tougher games wait on the schedule. I knew that -7.5 spread was a trap in Week 1, and division games are often tough, but I would have liked to see something better out of a team I have winning 11 games this year.

49ers at Bears: Jimmy G Would Have At Least…

Is it too soon to point out that Kyle Shanahan is 8-29 when he starts a quarterback not named Jimmy Garoppolo? The one excuse I really don’t want to hear about this game is that George Kittle didn’t play. He didn’t play last year, and the 49ers shredded Chicago, which looks no better on defense going into this season.

Now, the wet conditions from the weather and the in-game injury to running back Elijah Mitchell are a bit different. That had an impact on the offense, but this is now three starts where Trey Lance just hasn’t efficiently led the team to many points. You have to have concerns here.

That proper balance between Deebo Samuel being a runner (8-52-1) and a receiver (2-of-8 for 14 yards) was totally off this week. Lance’s 13 runs only produced 54 yards. He was outplayed by Justin Fields, who had less to work with but threw the game-winning touchdown pass in the fourth quarter.

I said Lance was the league’s big wild card this season, with getting benched for Garoppolo in October as his lowest limit. Keep playing like this and it might happen.

Saints at Falcons: On Brand

The very first Falcons game in the post-Matt Ryan era sees them blow a 16-point fourth-quarter lead at home to the hated Saints. You can’t make this stuff up, but that’s Atlanta and the art of losing.

Even if division games are tough, this was shaping up to be one of the wildest outcomes of the week. I had Atlanta finishing 3-14 this year. But this team was running wild (201 yards) on the New Orleans defense and Marcus Mariota was playing adequately with rookie WR Drake London his only dominant target on the day.

The Saints had minus-2 net passing yards at halftime. What has this team become? Maybe the second half will wake Dennis Allen and Jameis Winston up and remind them that they can still be an offense that throws for 250 yards a week.

A Mariota fumble late in the third quarter when the Falcons could have gone up three touchdowns was a big turning point, but even then the Falcons still led 26-10 with 12:41 left. Winston does not have many comebacks on his resume, but this will go down as the best I imagine. He thew two touchdowns to Michael Thomas (welcome back), but the game-tying two-point conversion failed with 3:38 left.

But the Falcons screwed up when they just needed 1 yard to ice the game. Mariota had trouble with the snap and nearly fumbled. The Falcons punted and Winston had 48 seconds to get a go-ahead field goal.

I needed to see the next sequence with my own eyes, because the play-by-play made no damn sense. After Jarvis Landry made a great catch (terrible DB play) for 40 yards, Winston got to the line and spiked the ball. But he was penalized for intentional grounding since the clock wasn’t running when he spiked it. Odd moment. Then after another completion brought up third-and-3 with the clock moving under 25 seconds, Winston hurried the offense to the line for another spike to bring up fourth down with 23 seconds left.

Sean Payton and Drew Brees would never fuck this up so badly. This incompetence will come back to bite this team, but Atlanta is just snakebitten as a franchise. Sure enough, Wil Lutz was good on the 51-yard field goal, but it left Mariota 19 seconds and three timeouts. We know what can be achieved in 13 seconds…

With the help of a 15-yard penalty by Marshon Lattimore tacked on to the end of a catch, the Falcons had a shot at 63-yard field goal with Younghoe Koo. It would have been one of the longest field goals of all time, so he knew he had to hit it low. But it was blocked and the Falcons add another classic choke to their collection.

But remember, last season the Falcons blew a 24-6 lead in the fourth quarter to these Saints. Matt Ryan was still there to right the ship and get the offense down the field for a game-winning field goal. No such luck this year.

While it’s going to be a long season for Atlanta, I do not see much to get excited about with these Saints. This was a bad performance against what could be the worst team in the NFL.

Browns at Panthers: Sour Revenge

On one hand, you can say Baker Mayfield’s hyped revenge game against Cleveland was a failure. He lost, he threw a pick, took four sacks, and he had to recover four of his own fumbles (or at least that’s the early statistical credit).

On the other hand, you could say he led a spirited rally from a 20-7 deficit in the fourth quarter with a 7-yard touchdown run, a 75-yard touchdown pass to Robbie Anderson, and a go-ahead field goal drive with 1:13 left.

The Panthers just had to stop Jacoby Brissett from getting into field-goal range without a timeout in the last minute. Instead, they started the drive with a roughing the passer penalty, which ended up being Cleveland’s longest gain on the drive.

After the second-worst spike on a third down on Sunday afternoon, the best Cleveland could do was a 58-yard field goal attempt. But fourth-round rookie kicker Cade York, who was three years old the last time the Browns won an opener in 2004, delivered a memorable debut with a successful kick. The Panthers did not have enough time to answer in the 26-24 loss.

Matt Rhule’s Panthers are now 0-14 at 4QC/GWD opportunities and 1-24 when allowing 17 or more points in a game.

Patriots at Dolphins: Tua Is 4-0 vs. Belichick

Talk about a stat worth a literal LOL: Tua Tagovailoa just joined John Elway as the only quarterbacks to start 4-0 against Bill Belichick as a head coach. Elway beat the Browns four years in a row in 1991-94. Tua is the first quarterback to beat Belichick’s Patriots four games in a row at any time.

This may have been his best game of the four, which might not sound like much when the Miami offense scored 13 points. A strip-sack recovered for a touchdown early set the tone for this one, another meltdown by the Patriots in the Miami heat.

But that scoring number is a bit misleading. The Dolphins only had eight drives, and they spent their eighth one running out the final five minutes of their 20-7 wire-to-wire win. They reached the New England 11 on that last drive, so if they had finished it with a touchdown, that would be 20 points on eight drives, or 2.5 points per drive. That is a top 8-10 type of number for a season, which you’d be more than content with from this offense.

The Dolphins avoided any turnovers and five of their eight drives netted at least 45 yards. Tyreek Hill was heavily involved with eight catches for 94 yards, and Jaylen Waddle made his presence felt with a 42-yard touchdown. The run game never really took off, but it should come eventually.

Mike McDaniel’s debut won’t blow the doors off the NFL or even shock the way the Dolphins shocked New England with the Wildcat in 2008, but this was a solid win. And how can you not adore a coach who gets a 42-yard touchdown (Waddle play) against Belichick by going for it on a 4th-an-7 before halftime?

Finally, the AFC East has some teeth to it.

Giants at Titans: Daboll-Do

You might as well give Brian Daboll the Coach of the Year award right now if he’s going to unlock Daniel Jones (115.9 PR) and Saquon Barkley (168 rushing yards) in the NFL.

Jokes aside, this was a tough game to evaluate. On the one hand, the Giants were down 13-0 at halftime, something Ben McAdoo, Pat Shurmur, or Joe Judge could have done easily. But Barkley hit that 68-yard run on the first offensive snap out of halftime and the comeback was on. Jones took five sacks and had plenty of big mistakes, but he also completed 17-of-21 passes, scrambled for a game-deciding 4th down in the red zone, and threw the go-ahead passes for the touchdown and two-point conversion.

Remember, this was the quarterback who was 2-14 at 4QC opportunities before Sunday. And this one wouldn’t have been his fault (much) if they lost like they probably should have, because I did not love Daboll’s decision to go for two and the 21-20 lead.

This came with 1:06 left and the Titans having a timeout, or plenty of time to drive for the game-wining field goal that you just forced them into by converting. I like to see that clock under 20 seconds when you go for two and the late lead. Maybe 30 seconds if they are out of timeouts. Sixty-six seconds is a lot, and it should have been enough for Tennessee.

Ryan Tannehill avoided interceptions on the day and delivered a great pass to the 27 that put the team in field-goal range with 18 seconds left. But having to burn the final timeout was bad, and the decision to kneel and spike and lose a couple more yards was not great either.

Randy Bullock can make a 47-yard field goal, but no one is going to convince the guy for Adam Vinatieri or Justin Tucker. His kick was wide left, and the Titans lost by a single point at home.

Kicker has been a problem for this team under Mike Vrabel. But allowing the Giants to have two 65-yard plays in the same half is inexcusable. Good for Daboll to get the first win, but I’d bet against this being your strategy for wins going forward.

Eagles at Lions: Behold, Nick Sirianni’s Decision

Last season, Dan Campbell’s Lions were down 24 points in the final minutes of Week 1 against the 49ers before rallying to a 41-33 deficit. They were inside the 30 and two scoring plays away from overtime before losing. It was a wild, unexpected rally attempt against a clearly superior team.

On Sunday, the Lions did something similar against the Eagles after trailing 38-21 to start the fourth quarter. Jared Goff shook off a horrific start to lead a touchdown drive that pulled the team to within 38-35 with 3:51 left. This was a game again despite the brilliant 155-yard debut by A.J. Brown, but the Eagles executed their run game for a couple key first downs to ice the game.

We need to highlight the fourth-and-1 decision. The ball was at the Detroit 40 with 1:06 left in a 38-35 game. The Lions were out of timeouts, so a first down ices the game. But a stop, and Detroit is nearly at midfield in a 3-point game with a minute left. That’s a huge moment.

As far as I can tell, Philadelphia is just the second team since 1994 to go for a fourth down with its offense in the final 90 seconds, leading by 1-to-3 points, and with the ball no deeper than the opponent 40. This excludes any plays with seconds left where a team just threw the ball deep and out of bounds to run out the clock.

The Ravens did this last year against the Chiefs in a more dire situation. Baltimore was ahead 36-35 with 1:05 left at their own 43. But Lamar Jackson converted with a 2-yard run and the Ravens beat the Chiefs.

Like the Ravens, the Eagles kept the ball in Jalen Hurts’ hands, and he ran for a yard to end the game. You like to see the Eagles hold onto that big lead and not have it come down to this, but good call to wrap it up and start 1-0.

Between the Pistons and Lions, Detroit is getting very good at fielding underdog teams who can cover a spread but not win the game.

Jaguars at Commanders: New Name, New Identity?

I owe someone in this game an apology. I have ridiculed this player for years. I said he was not a legit franchise star or leader. He didn’t deserve his big contract. He’s just going to disappoint you in the end. Then all he did was ball out in Week 1, perhaps showing he is ready to step up to a higher tier.

So, Christian Kirk, I am sorry for not believing in you getting this big opportunity in Jacksonville. You had 117 yards and might be a legit No. 1 this year.

But in all seriousness, this was going to be an excellent game to showcase the full Carson Wentz experience. Two fourth-quarter interceptions turned a 14-12 lead into a 22-14 deficit for Washington. Just when you thought Wentz would further fall apart, he has one of the best fourth quarters of his career with two touchdown drives covering 168 yards.

Trevor Lawrence was intercepted with 1:10 left in a 28-22 loss. An improvement over where he was Week 1 last year, but still not good enough. The Jaguars have lost 36 straight games when allowing more than 20 points.

Maybe Wentz feels a little personal revenge was achieved against the Jaguars for sending him out of Indy, and for Doug Pederson preferring Nick Foles in his offense. Maybe this is the best he’ll play all year as Jacksonville, masters of the double-digit loss season, still looks like a work in progress.

But for at least one Sunday, I can’t say Wentz failed.

Ravens at Jets: The Flacco Revenge Game That Wasn’t

Why should Baker Mayfield and Russell Wilson have all the headlines for revenge games? Joe Flacco’s first game against Baltimore went about as expected. He rejoined this list for having the fewest passing yards (307) on exactly 37 completions in NFL history.

Baltimore led 24-3 late before a little garbage-time score to make it 24-9, but I’m more interested that Lamar Jackson spread the ball around to three different 50-yard receivers, and the Ravens only ran the ball 21 times for 63 yards, including six runs for 17 yards by Jackson. That’s not a typical Baltimore result, but you take the comfortable win any time you can get it after last year’s heartbreak.

NFL Week 1 Predictions: 2022 Awards Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

The Buffalo Bills kicked off the 2022 NFL season with a convincing win over the Rams that has me feeling great about my prediction for the Bills to win the Super Bowl this year. But not so great about my prediction to make the Rams the No. 1 seed in the NFC. But there’s 284 games to go.

It’s that time again: Saturday night before the first NFL Sunday of the season, and I’m burned the hell out from the week. All I have left in the tank before I enjoy the couch all day tomorrow are my award predictions and Week 1 picks. You’ve probably seen me write clues or outright pick winners for these awards in other articles as I’m freelancing with several different places this year. But I always like to put this together in a list on my blog.

  • Most Valuable Player: Justin Herbert, Chargers
  • Coach of the Year: Mike McDaniel, Dolphins
  • Assistant Coach of the Year: Leslie Frazier, Bills
  • Offensive Player of the Year: Justin Herbert, Chargers
  • Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, Steelers
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year: Dameon Pierce, Texans
  • Defensive Rookie of the Year: Aidan Hutchinson, Lions
  • Comeback Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey, Panthers

I already detailed my Herbert MVP case here. Not expecting another WR or RB to go off like Cooper Kupp and Jonathan Taylor did last year, I doubled up with OPOY for Herbert.

Another one I’ve been hinting at is Mike McDaniel for COTY in Miami. I think he gets the edge for bringing his system to Miami and making Tua better. While I have the Chargers with the division win, I think Herbert’s MVP season detracts from Brandon Staley. While I have the Vikings going 10-7 and making the playoffs under Kevin O’Connell, I think people will say he took over a team loaded with offensive stars who just needed to finish games better by literally not fumbling in OT or missing a short FG. Nathaniel Hackett in Denver is going to get passed over for Russell Wilson getting the credit for a turnaround. McDaniel is going to get the lion’s share of credit for turning around Miami, so that’s my pick.

I have to cop to some cheating on Assistant Coach of the Year. Obviously, in picking the Bills to go 17-4 and win it all while praising their defense, I expected great things. This is a hard award to predict, and I notice every winner has been on a team with 11+ wins. Not liking a lot of the options out there, I just went with Frazier in Buffalo after that dominant performance we saw in LA. Von Miller is going to pay off so well.

Not loving the DPOY options, but I went with T.J. Watt over Myles Garrett just because I think Watt is better at stripping the ball and creating more splash plays. If he plays a full 17 games, that sack record could belong solely to him. The Steelers also need to play ugly games this year to get by. Defense must step up.

For OROY, it’s wild to think this is the first season since 2007 where no rookie QB is starting Week 1. Kenny Pickett had the best shot, but Mitch Trubisky won the job. I just don’t see Tomlin pulling Trubisky for the rookie until after the bye at the earliest. That makes it too hard for Pickett to win the award. There are a shitload of wide receivers to choose from, but none are in that great of a situation. Ideally, you want someone with a high pedigree (high draft pick) who will start right away and has a great shot to be the leading receiver on a team with a decent quarterback. That’s how you get an Odell Beckham, Justin Jefferson, or Ja’Marr Chase kind of season, but even Jefferson lost the award to Herbert in 2020.

QB shouldn’t be in the mix this time, but I don’t see the George Pickens love. FanDuel is +700 on Pickens as the leader. He’s stuck in a Trubisky-led offense with Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, and Najee Harris getting balls too. As great as the Steelers are at scouting WRs, none of them have ever had a 1,000-yard season as a rookie. I just don’t see a WR2 (at best) in Pittsburgh without Ben Roethlisberger getting it done.

So, I ended up picking Dameon Pierce, the Texans starting back. The offense might be surprisingly decent, and he is scheduled to start the season as RB1. I wanted to go Kenneth Walker in Seattle, but his hernia worries me. But Pete Carroll trying to run without Wilson makes sense, and Penny always gets hurt. I also think Isaiah Likely is a huge darkhorse in Baltimore, but he’s not even the best tight end on his team, and no tight end (or OL) has ever won the award.

Should be an interesting class to follow, and the depth of the WR class (13 taken in top 54 picks) is going to lead to so much shit-talking between fans about how that draft turned out.

NFL Week 1 Predictions

Started the year off with a win as I was on the Bills and the under on Thursday night. Just thought it’d be a much closer game than 31-10.

Week 1 and Joe Flacco, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, and Geno Smith are starting games. Is it 2015 again?

The Colts have been hard to trust in Week 1 under Frank Reich, so I am hedging with Houston. Almost wanted to do the exact same thing with the Saints in Atlanta, but man, that Atlanta team looks terrible.

I’m all in on the Baker Mayfield Revenge Game. He won’t go off, but he’ll get to hold a win over them.

Jaguars demand to schedule Carson Wentz every week.

Really looking forward to the Chargers-Raiders and Chiefs-Cardinals games in the late-afternoon window. These West races are going to be incredible. I think the Cardinals can surprise some people tomorrow if the Chiefs struggle on defense like they did to start 2021.

We waited seven months for this. Feels good to be back.

2022 NFL Predictions

~ Scott ~ 10 Comments

Last season I had a different process where I ended up writing an in-depth preview of all 32 teams over the span of a month. In past years, I would usually get assigned a handful of teams that I’d study the hell out of to write my essays, then I would whip together about 15,000 words here for my final predictions.

We’ll see if taking more time on each team is paying off, or if last year was just a fluke because I had way more accurate predictions than I did for 2013-20:

Twenty-eight teams within two games? I might never see that again. I’m willing to believe 2021 had some fluke to it given no AFC team won more than 12 games and we had the first Super Bowl ever without a top-three seed. The Rams and Bengals were only No. 4 seeds.

This makes it very easy for me to not predict a Super Bowl rematch like I did last year:

Still, I think I very well could have continued my tradition of getting one Super Bowl team right (Chiefs) but with the wrong outcome, had it not been for Patrick Mahomes playing the worst half of his career against the Bengals.

Unlike the last few years, I do not see the Chiefs as the center of the NFL story for this 2022 season. Don’t get me wrong, they are a major character again, but the AFC and particularly the AFC West is so deep that I think it’s hard to focus on any one team.

But I have figured out my narrative for this year’s predictions.

What I’m Watching for in 2022

Like last year, my team write-ups are much shorter here than in past years because I already did previews in the 2,000-4,000 word range for each team on BMR, which are linked below.

I always tend to write these hours before kickoff of the season opener on Thursday, and this year I am extra burned out from work to get to this day. I just want to shoot from the hip my final thoughts on these teams. All the structured analysis can be found in the BMR previews.

Having said that, this introduction is becoming the most important part of the preview because I like to share the things I’m looking for in the new season. We’ve had crazy quarterback movement and COVID causing empty stadiums to deal with the last couple years.

But this is the year of the No. 1 wide receiver experiments.

Historic Wide Receiver Movement

Imagine going back a year to September 2021 and listening to two football fans have this fanciful, Madden-logic conversation about the league.

Fan 1: Man, what if Derek Carr had Davante Adams instead of Henry Ruggs to throw to?

Fan 2: Still mid. Who does Aaron Rodgers get?

Fan 1: Just some non-first round picks. Let’s snatch Tyreek Hill away from Patrick Mahomes too and give him to Tua in Miami.

Fan 2: Sounds too bizarre. Can we take Gronk away from Brady for good?

Fan 1: Sure, they’ll probably both retire after this season. He still has Antonio Brown though…Speaking of Brown, what if A.J. went to Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts, and Hollywood went to Arizona to reunite with Kyler?

Fan 2: Why would they do that?

Fan 1: So the Jaguars can give Christian Kirk $80 million.

Fan 2: Bro… the fuck?

Fan 1: The Browns are going to get Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper. And for good measure, we’re going to trade Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson to the AFC, bring back Geno Smith and Marcus Mariota as Week 1 starters, send Baker Mayfield to Carolina, and ship Carson Wentz back to the NFC East to the Washington Commanders.

Fan 2: Comman-co-co-come on, man, this shit is beyond silly.

Fan 1: Falcons taking the first wide receiver off the draft board after Calvin Ridley gets suspended the whole year for making a parlay on a game he ain’t even play in..

Fan 2: Now I know you’re just dreaming.

But this became reality, setting up an unusual number of QB-WR experiments with many players still in their prime. This will be very interesting to watch as it’s not like the Packers and Chiefs replaced Adams and Hill with a legitimate No. 1.

Adams and Hill also went to two of the best situations possible with two new head coaches, Josh McDaniels and Mike McDaniel (no relation), who should know how to use them.

The Dolphins and Raiders could be much improved this year, and it still may not show up in the win-loss record that much because of how insanely deep the AFC is, which leads me to the other big story going into Week 1.

The AFC Looks Insanely More Competitive Than the NFC (LOAT Warning)

The Buffalo Bills are the favorites to win it all this year, but any team that comes out of this AFC deserves a round of applause. This division could easily be 11 teams deep for contention with only seven playoff spots available. This is even discounting the Steelers and Browns because of their quarterback situations and ignoring the chance that a second-year quarterback (Trevor Lawrence, Davis Mills, Zach Wilson) could vastly improve.

A team like Cincinnati could go from the Super Bowl to 9-10 wins and no playoffs at this rate. It is going to be something to behold, and of course some teams will end up disappointing and injuries will take out a couple more. But if teams live up to what they look like on paper, this should be an incredible AFC race.

Who does this tight AFC race and the offseason talent shift benefit the most?

Tom Brady, of course. You would end your retirement after 40 days too if you saw this easy of a path open to the Super Bowl between the state of your conference and the Buccaneers’ schedule:

  • Week 1: A Dallas team that already lost Tyron Smith, had a million takeaways last year, beat up on the NFC East, and still hasn’t been to the NFC Championship Game since the 1995 season.
  • Weeks 2 & 13: Sean Payton retired in New Orleans, the team that is 4-0 against Brady the last two regular seasons and the only real division competition. Payton was replaced by a coach who is 8-28.
  • Weeks 3-4: Packers and Chiefs trade away Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill while replacing them with slight upgrades to Joe Rogan and Jackson Mahomes. Tampa Bay hosts these teams in Weeks 3-4, and they also get to host the Ravens and Rams in Weeks 8-9 and the Bengals in Week 15.
  • Week 5 & 18: Matt Ryan left for Indy, leaving Marcus Mariota with a coach he already failed with in Tennessee.
  • Week 6: A Pittsburgh team with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback after Ben Roethlisberger retired.
  • Weeks 7 & 17: A Carolina team that settled for Baker Mayfield, though Sam Darnold could be available for one of these games too.
  • Week 10: Russell Wilson left Seattle for Denver, leaving Geno Smith and Drew Lock in his place for a team that is unrecognizable.
  • Week 12: Guess which game is the final one of Deshaun Watson’s suspension in Cleveland? Yep, it’s TB.
  • Week 16: Once the World Series is over, Kyler Murray acts like football season is over. Guess which day Tampa plays in Arizona? Hint: Bah humbug.

What else is in the NFC?

  • A Minnesota team with Kirk Cousins that can’t stray too far from .500 or the world will rotate off its axis
  • Washington thinks Carson Wentz is “the one.”
  • Philadelphia should have a good season, but it was 0-7 against playoff teams last year, including 0-2 against the Bucs.
  • The Giants, co-owners with the Jets for the worst record in the NFL since 2017.
  • A San Francisco team that only seems to win when their quarterback is absurdly handsome. Would you even trust Kyle Shanahan with another 19-point 4Q lead against Brady? Or anyone in the playoffs?

At the very least, what keeps this interesting is that Tampa doesn’t look loaded up for 2022. Also, the biggest kryptonite is Sean McVay’s Rams, the defending champs and winners of three straight over Tampa. If Brady somehow avoids the Rams in the playoffs, then we could be talking about him winning every other Super Bowl since 2014. If he can’t get past the Rams, then he may be setting them up as the firs team to repeat since his Patriots in 2003-04.

Needless to say, I absolutely understand why Bills vs. Buccaneers is the preseason favorite pick for Super Bowl 57. But is it my pick? Let’s find out.

One last note: I predicted over/under on each team’s win total at BMR. What I predicted in those articles since late July may be different from my final W-L prediction in September after sitting down with the schedule grid Wednesday night to make these final predictions.

AFC WEST

1. Los Angeles Chargers (12-5)

BMR Preview: This division race being anything but incredible would be so disappointing. The Chargers missing the playoffs again would be the most disappointing of any team in the league.

But I think they are ready to take that next big step in Justin Herbert’s third season and Brandon Staley’s second. Last year, the Chargers were 9-8 despite losing three games to playoff teams on the final snap. Herbert led a game-tying or go-ahead drive in all three of those games. As a rookie, he was 7-9 but the team blew three leads of 17+ points in his first six starts.

The kid just needs a defense. He’s already the only quarterback in history to throw 30 touchdowns in each of his first two seasons. He has the second-most yards thru 32 starts behind only Mahomes. Just find him some defense.

I wrote why I think Justin Herbert will win MVP this year.

I think Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson are going to help enough. Herbert takes his game to another level and gets the MVP on the strength of coming out on top of this insanely difficult division.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (10-7)

BMR Preview: The Chiefs are trying to become the third team in NFL history to win their division at least seven years in a row. That is a long stretch of dominance, but the competition has never been stronger in the AFC West than it is this year.

I also think there’s high probability this is the weakest team of the Mahomes era so far. Think Peyton Manning’s 2002 Colts when it was just him playing catch with Marvin Harrison (143 times). That was still good enough for 10 wins, and Mahomes is like that too as I expect he’ll still lead a top 5 offense here if Travis Kelce doesn’t get hurt.

But you can’t lose Tyreek Hill and replace him with JuJu Smith-Schuster/Skyy Moore/Marquez Valdes-Scantling and act like it’s the same offense. I said after the Buffalo playoff win that Hill has to have the best clutch play highlight reel of any player in the last five years. When Mahomes needed someone to save a game, Hill was that guy. Think of the fourth down against the Ravens in 2018, the long touchdowns against the Chargers in 2020 and 2021, the plays late in the Buffalo win, and of course, third-and-15 in the Super Bowl. You know, the only play that prevents the Chiefs from being the biggest disappointment in the NFL’s last decade. Hill has to be worth 1-2 wins a season for this team with that rare speed.

I don’t like losing Tyrann Mathieu on defense either as another player who could make the turnovers in big moments. The Chiefs just don’t look as scary anymore. The tipped-ball turnovers shouldn’t be so bad this year, but if you’re game-planning for this offense without Hill, how do you not double Kelce and drop 7-to-8 defenders into coverage and make Mahomes hold the ball like he did in the second half against Cincinnati’s three-man rush when he had the worst half of his career?

After the Super Bowl 55 loss, it was KC figuring out the two-man safety looks that team showed them in 2021. They eventually did that. I don’t think a three-man rush is a sustainable defensive strategy, but I think teams are going to try it. Just make sure Kelce gets doubled or you’re  missing the point of it all. Take away the best receiver on the field and make these new guys, who are mistake prone (MVS, I’m looking your way) beat you.

3. Denver Broncos (10-7)

BMR Preview: Finally, we can look forward to watching Denver games again. I think Russell Wilson is going to have a fine season and no quarterback is better equipped to handle a ridiculously loaded division.

But at the same time, the division is why I think he’ll have a harder time taking this team the distance than what Peyton Manning did when he arrived in Denver a decade ago. This should land somewhere between what Jake Plummer and Peyton did as a Denver reference. I think Wilson is downgrading at his top WR duo, but he’ll make Jerry Jeudy a better player. Tim Patrick was a big loss for this team you won’t hear a lot about this year, but he was the red-zone target and a good third receiver who would start on a lot of teams.

But you bring in Wilson to give a rookie coach like Nathaniel Hackett an instant reason to compete. We haven’t seen Wilson play in the preseason so it’s a mystery what this will look like, but I think it’s going to be a good offense

Funny enough, because of the division makeup, Denver could still have the worst offense and best defense in the AFC West this year. But I think this is going to end in 10 wins and Wilson will end Denver’s 13-game losing streak to the Chiefs. He outplayed Mahomes in their only meeting in 2018, and that’s exactly why you need this kind of quarterback if you are going to compete with Mahomes and Herbert the next decade.

4. Las Vegas Raiders (9-8)

BMR Preview: The Raiders were one of my four biggest misses last year (6-11 to 10-7), and I wanted to somehow fit the team into 10 wins again, which still might miss the playoffs because of these other AFC West teams.

In a normal year, you would look at the Raiders scoring differential (-65) last year and the fact they tied the record by going 4-0 in overtime games and predict regression. It was a fluke, they’ll play better but have a worse record in 2022. Simple.

But then they hired Josh McDaniels as head coach, and while I’m not a big fan, I can’t deny the body of work and that he gave Kyle Orton a glow-up in Denver in 2009. It lasted about six games for success, but this might be the best Raiders roster since the 2002 Super Bowl team when you add Davante Adams and Chandler Jones.

In the end, I only gave the Raiders nine wins, but it’s hard to expect your fourth-ranked team to do more than that in a division. But I will say this…

The season to win is now, Raiders fans. Derek Carr has everything he needs to have the best season of his career. Adams, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow is the best receiving trio in the league, and if McDaniels can use Renfrow the way he used Wes Welker in 2007-12, you might even see him catch more balls than Davante this year. This offense could be incredible, but it’s only going to work if Carr elevates his game in Year 9, which was a peak year of play for Peyton Manning (2006), Drew Brees (2009), and Matt Ryan (2016). You know I don’t think Carr is on that level, but he needs to show us something more this year.

Take the AFC West now before the Chiefs find Mahomes another top-tier weapon, before Herbert ascends to God mode, and before Wilson and Hackett figure things out in Denver. This might be the best chance McDaniels gets in Vegas, so carpe diem.

NFC WEST

1. Los Angeles Rams (12-5)

BMR Preview: I keep having to say it every year, but we are in the longest drought in NFL history without a repeat champion (2003-04 Patriots the last). This was one of my first and favorite previews to write this season, because I get into how we’re going to learn if this team is still hungry for more, or if last year was the culmination of a five-year journey for Sean McVay and even longer for Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald.

Does this give a new sense of confidence for Stafford now that he has a ring, or are we going to see that going 9-1 in close games and becoming the first team in history to win three straight playoff games by 3 points is a once in a career fever dream? I also think losing Von Miller and Andrew Whitworth hurts, and I don’t like Allen Robinson more than Robert Woods/Odell.

But ultimately, I see an easier division than what the Rams faced last year, and I still have them with 12 wins. Is it enough for the top seed and another Super Bowl run? That will likely be determined by how this team plays Tampa Bay. They have beat them all three times in the Brady era, and they will likely have to continue that mastery if they want to get to the Super Bowl again.

2. San Francisco 49ers (10-7)

BMR Preview: This is a tough one because Trey Lance is the wild card of this NFL season. I can see anything from getting benched in October for Jimmy Garoppolo (still there, still handsome) to winning Super Bowl MVP in February. His athletic skills are impressive and we know the vaunted Kyle Shanahan system can boost his passing numbers. It also doesn’t hurt that no one can tackle Deebo Samuel and George Kittle on the first try.

But then I remember the fact that Shanahan is 35-16 (.686) with Garoppolo as his quarterback and 8-28 (.222) with everyone else. It’s a stunning split, the kind you’d expect to see for a team starting one of the best quarterbacks of all time and going to trash as backups. But no one would dare characterize Garoppolo that way despite him having the highest YPA (8.4) of any quarterback born since WWII.

I found myself at the last minute trying to knock them down another win, but let’s just roll with it as Lance is truly a wild card.

3. Arizona Cardinals (10-7)

BMR Preview: Honestly, I didn’t check the tiebreaker between Arizona and San Francisco, so it’s possible these standings should be switched. But anyway, you are probably surprised I still have the Cardinals making the playoffs after going 4-7 down the stretch last year and making plenty of bad headlines surrounding Kyler Murray in the offseason.

But what if last year’s last unbeaten team (7-0) is still good, is still getting better, and what if it doesn’t have injuries to Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and J.J. Watt again? Most importantly, what if Kyler bumps up his study time and has his best season yet with what should be a huge chip on his shoulder?

I know it’s a gamble and I should probably give this record to a more deserving team, but I oddly feel good about Arizona having some success this year after a taste of the playoffs in 2021.

Do I think they have a shot in the playoffs to make it three straight years of a team hosting the Super Bowl in their own building? Scroll to the bottom to find out.

4. Seattle Seahawks (5-12)

BMR Preview: Pete Carroll hasn’t won fewer than seven games in the NFL since he was a rookie coaching the 1994 Jets (6-10). But now he’s in his 70s and he’s coaching two Jets rejects in Geno Smith and Jamal Adams, so he might as well be back in Jersey.

Look, this is a rebuilding team with a terrible quarterback situation. They also have 10 games against the AFC West and NFC West where I basically just declared all seven teams are playoff caliber.

5-12 might be generous.

AFC EAST

1. Buffalo Bills (13-4)

BMR Preview: Not long after Buffalo’s 13-second meltdown in Kansas City, I thought this team would be my Super Bowl pick next year. It seems many agree as the Bills have consistently had the best odds for the Super Bowl and #1 seed all offseason.

This is what happens when you combine a super talented quarterback with a defense that should get Tre’Davious White back soon and added Von Miller to the pass rush. That is a Super Bowl formula.

The only real concern is the offense lost coordinator Brian Daboll, but great quarterbacks overcome those changes all the time. They get their OCs hired; bad quarterbacks get the OC fired.

With Allen, the regular season was not what it could have been after his dazzling 2020, but that playoff performance is why everyone is so high on this team. He led a perfect game in single-digit temps against Bill Belichick’s defense in a wild card game. The Bills scored seven touchdowns on seven possessions. Then we saw him put the team ahead with 13 seconds left in Kansas City, but we know what happened the rest of the way.

Still, 12 touchdowns in 16 drives in the playoffs. Insane stuff that could have put Allen on the path to having the best postseason ever, yet the Bills were bounced in the second round. It can’t happen again.

At least it can’t happen if Sean McDermott wants to win a Super Bowl in Buffalo with Allen. Remember my Five-Year Rule? No team has ever won its first championship by starting the same quarterback under the same head coach for more than five seasons.

This is Year 5 for Allen/McDermott. It also happens to be Year 5 for Lamar Jackson/John Harbaugh in Baltimore. Maybe we’ll get a playoff rematch from two years ago between these two.

2. Miami Dolphins (10-7)

BMR Preview: You know my usual talking points on the Dolphins. Boring, irrelevant, one of the Three Stooges, even when they have a winning record it means nothing, and some quip about still trying to replace Dan Marino.

Some of that may still be true, but that linked preview is probably the most optimistic thing I’ve ever written about this franchise. I’m all in on Mike McDaniel bringing the Shanahan system to South Beach with Tyreek Hill adding the speed to a receiving corps that couldn’t separate the last few years.

Am I believer in Tua Tagovailoa? Eh, not really. But we have seen this offense inflate the numbers of Matt Schaub, Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins, and Jimmy Garoppolo. Even some extent for Nick Mullens and that best Matt Ryan season ever in 2016 when Shanahan was in Atlanta. It just works, and the Dolphins are bringing talent with the scheme.

The Dolphins have had winning records in consecutive seasons but still missed the playoffs both times. That hasn’t happened since the Dolphins did it in 2002-03. Can it happen for a third year in a row? That would be the most Miami thing ever, but I think we are going to see better results from this team. If Tua can’t get the job done, then someone else will next year.

3. New England Patriots (9-8)

BMR Preview: Feels good to no longer just hand the Patriots 10+ wins and the division title. We know Buffalo surpassed them in 2020 once Josh Allen exploded, and now the Dolphins have won all three meetings started by Tua. It’s not like he was great in those games, but he avoided the big mistakes.

But the Patriots are looking rather ordinary in a stacked AFC. Bill Belichick turned 70 and he lost Josh McDaniels to the Raiders and hired back Joe Judge to share duties with Matt Patricia. That is discouraging for this team building on last year where Mac Jones was the best rookie quarterback.

That doesn’t mean he will remain that way for his class. I think they are going to miss McDaniels and there’s still not a great receiving corps here. The defense also lost pick magnet J.C. Jackson to the Chargers and we know defensive back is a position they have their problems evaluating.

I trust Belichick enough to get a winning record, but 8-9 wouldn’t surprise me either.

4. New York Jets (5-12)

BMR Preview: Is this team going to have any left tackles healthy for the season? I already had low expectations, and I think 5-12 is generous enough. Robert Saleh was supposed to be a defensive guru and the defense was arguably worse than the offense last year weighed for expectations. I also think it’s troubling that little known Mike White had the best game and moment of the season for the team instead of Zach Wilson last year.

Believe it or not, but when the Jets miss the playoffs for a 12th year in a row, that will set the new franchise record for longest playoff drought.

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)

BMR Preview: No one has won the NFC East in consecutive years since the Eagles did it in 2001-04. I think that streak continues, and the Eagles take it from Dallas this year. The addition of A.J. Brown should work out great, but the team will have to show more willingness to throw with Jalen Hurts this year.

The Eagles were also 0-7 against playoff teams last year. But with a favorable schedule in 2022, I think 11 wins and a home playoff game is in their future. Just be warned that come January, I’ll be here pointing out said schedule and asking if we can trust this team to do anything in the tournament.

2. Dallas Cowboys (9-8)

BMR Preview: The night I finished my Dallas preview and predicted under 10 wins, I saw the tweets about three hours later that Tyron Smith could miss months, if not the whole season with a serious injury. I wasn’t going to bother sending an email to change anything as I’m already down on Dallas this year. That just reinforces the pick for me.

Weakened the receiving corps and offensive line while the defense relied on way too many takeaways last year. If you look at Dan Quinn’s history, his defenses are almost always below average in turnovers except for 2013 (Seattle) and last year. Trevon Diggs gave up a lot of completions last year on his way to all those picks.

Of course, I think Dak Prescott is legit enough to have a winning record again, but I don’t see the team around him being good enough to get back to the playoffs. The Cowboys were 6-0 against the division and 6-6 out of it last year. They really beat up the 2021 NFC East, but I think the other three teams are improved while Dallas is taking steps backwards.

3. New York Giants (6-11)

BMR Preview: Brian Daboll was my favorite head coach hire in this year’s deep cycle. But I have to throw some cold water on any hopes that he’s going to turn 2022 Daniel Jones into 2020 Josh Allen. Jones throws some nice deep balls and can run, but he’s not the same caliber of quarterback. Kenny Golladay was also a mess last year, Saquon Barkley always disappoints, and it looks like Kadarius Toney might be earning a “candybone” nickname as he always gets hurt.

I wanted to give the Giants a seventh win because of how easy the schedule looks, but they became a go-to team when I was going through the schedule and trying to find wins for some of the worst teams in football.

Remember, the Giants are tied with the Jets for the worst record in the NFL since 2017. It is going to take some time for Daboll to fix this. I’d expect Jones to look his best in 2022, but it still won’t be enough to satisfy fans.

4. Washington Commanders (6-11)

BMR Preview: New name, same game. I dropped plenty of great Wentz diss tracks in this one, so check it out.

He’s not “the one” and Ron Rivera will find out the hard way as Doug Pederson and Frank Reich did.

AFC SOUTH

1. Indianapolis Colts (11-6)

BMR Preview: Can you believe the Colts haven’t won the AFC South since 2014? I like it to happen this year as Matt Ryan should be a welcome addition after Carson Wentz last year. This team does need to stop blowing leads though, and I don’t expect as many takeaways as they had last year. But I think you get much steadier quarterback play, and Ryan will have his best running game, offensive line, and defensive support in years. Ditto for coaching with Frank Reich having to adjust to a new starting quarterback in all five seasons.

I also expect the Colts to get back to beating Tennessee, which is why they should leap ahead to a division title. Looking forward to seeing this team play the Chiefs after that upset win 2019 was such an outlier for the Chiefs at the time.

The Colts might have the right stuff to go on their deepest playoff run since 2014 too, but I think expectations should be tempered There is not enough elite talent on this team at the right positions to win a Super Bowl this season.

2. Tennessee Titans (8-9)

BMR Preview: Frankly, I was jumping off the Tennessee bandwagon before the A.J. Brown trade on draft night, and before the news that Harold Landry tore his ACL, leaving the Titans without their leading receiver and best pass rusher. I also soured on Ryan Tannehill after his playoff implosion, spoiling a No. 1 seed that was earned with a record eight wins over teams with winning records.

Good luck repeating that success against a tough schedule in 2022. I know the Titans haven’t won fewer than nine games since 2015, and Mike Vrabel is one of the better coaches, but I just couldn’t find more than eight wins this year. I think they blew their golden opportunity last year with the top seed and everyone coming back healthy for the playoffs.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-11)

BMR Preview: I am interested more than most to get more data on Doug Pederson in games without Carson Wentz as his quarterback. I like this hire for the team, but man, I do not like paying Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones as the supporting cast. The Jaguars are not doing Trevor Lawrence any favors. There’s no Ja’Marr Chase to the rescue here, so I do not see a second-year surge like you might bet on with a talented, young quarterback getting a Super Bowl-winning head coach.

Or even just a coach you can confidently say won’t be grinding on a college girl’s ass in a bar after your team loses another game.

Also, tough year to hold the No. 1 pick in the draft, but I really think they should have picked Aidan Hutchinson. We’ll see how this shakes out but I don’t expect much from Travon Walker, who can push Eric Fisher as the most anonymous No. 1 pick in the 21st century.

4. Houston Texans (5-12)

BMR Preview: The Texans are a good example of the difference in trying to judge a team’s over/under win total and then go through the schedule for everyone and actually hand out said wins and losses with it needing to add up to 272.

Just a day ago, I wrote that Texans over 4.5 was the best bet in the AFC South this year. Then when I went through the schedule last night, it was so hard to find them wins. But I eventually landed on 5-12 as I think Davis Mills will be better than his rookie year, which was surprisingly impressive in a way if you read the linked preview.

But promoting Lovie Smith after his defense was so bad last year? It’s the most uninspiring coaching hire in years. We’ll see if they keep him beyond this year.

NFC SOUTH

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-5)

BMR Preview: If you skipped the intro, you should read that too as I really highlighted there why Tampa Bay is the betting favorite in the NFC for a Super Bowl again. But I do think there is a good chance this is the weakest of the three Tom Brady teams in Tampa.

Ali Marpet, Rob Gronkowski, and Bruce Arians retired. Chris Godwin is already back, but that first year off a torn ACL can be underwhelming. We know Antonio Brown’s crazy ass won’t be back in Tampa.

Throw in the 45-year-old quarterback who took a 40-day retirement and is in the tabloids because his wife is pissed about his return. I don’t know what’s true there or why he dipped on the team for 11 days in August, but I get the sense even Gisele is getting sick of him playing football.

Join the club.

But Brady’s won the Super Bowl every other year since 2014, and things could be setting up again for another one in 2022. If that’s what it takes to send him away for good, then so be it. I am just beyond ready to see an NFL without him, but I said even when he retired that I refuse to believe it until it’s Week 1 and he’s not there.

Same applies next year.

2. New Orleans Saints (8-9)

BMR Preview: This preview did a good job of covering just how bizarre the 2021 Saints were. Now we have to see this team without Sean Payton? I’m not sold on them having a winning record with Jameis Winston and Dennis Allen. In fact, Allen’s 8-28 (.222) record with Oakland makes him the coach with the worst winning percentage to get a second job in the Super Bowl era. This preview explains why that usually does not lead to a successful second shot.

Would I enjoy seeing Jameis send Brady into retirement with another sweep and actually win this division? Sure, but let’s be realistic about things. That’s never going to happen.

3. Carolina Panthers (7-10)

BMR Preview: Matt Rhule has yet to figure out how to win games when his team is down in the fourth quarter or allows more than 17 points. Enter Baker Mayfield, who had the same problem in 2021 with Cleveland. But I do like the return of Christian McCaffrey, and Baker is an upgrade over Sam Darnold, and he is going to at least get a 1-0 start by beating Cleveland in a legit revenge game.

But seven wins is the rosiest of predictions for this team.

4. Atlanta Falcons (3-14)

BMR Preview: Based on scoring differential, the Falcons went from the best 4-win team ever in 2020 to the worst 7-win team ever in 2021. A fitting way to end the Matt Ryan era. But I have the Falcons finishing with the worst record in football this year with Marcus Mariota taking over an offense with a coach (Arthur Smith) he failed to have success with in Tennessee in 2019. He was benched for Ryan Tannehill because he turned into a sack machine. Then you take away Calvin Ridley for the whole year for a stupid gambling punishment he doesn’t deserve, and it is hard to see this offense, which struggled more than ever under Ryan in 2021, doing much to improve.

The defense is still bad too. Maybe I’ll regret not going to five or six wins, but I’ll be shocked if the Falcons have a decent season this year.

AFC NORTH

1. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

BMR Preview: My confidence in Baltimore to win 12 games last year despite a bunch of preseason injuries was not rewarded. But the fact that an 8-3 start turned into an 8-9 finish was shocking. The close wins at the beginning of the season turned into close losses late as the Ravens were losing by a single point to the Packers (top seed) and Rams (eventual champs) with their backup quarterback.

But this is why I keep saying the Ravens are (positive) regression darlings for 2022. Injuries and close games. Way too many of both last year, and Lamar Jackson is back and looking for that huge, second contract while working as his own agent.

The Five-Year Rule was referenced in the Buffalo section. No team has won its first championship by starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than five years. This is technically the fifth year for Jackson and Harbaugh in Baltimore. Lamar didn’t start the opener in 2018, but he was the guy in the playoffs that season.

It took Harbaugh five seasons with Joe Flacco (2012) to get to that elusive Super Bowl, and he hasn’t been back to an AFC Championship Game since. The Ravens still bring that unique offensive attack with Jackson’s rushing ability and the defense should be much improved. I still like what this team has to offer and expect big things.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)

BMR Preview: This one was tough because I had the Bengals winning some really key matchups down the stretch of the schedule, but in the end, I only came up with a 9-8 record. The AFC is just too deep, and schedules aside, can you honestly say the Bengals stand out that much from the pack of the AFC West teams, Buffalo, Baltimore, Indy, or even New England?

Most people would have said it’d be crazy not to have the 2019 Rams or 2020 49ers in the playoffs or double-digit wins again after they lost the Super Bowl, but it happened to both. It happens to the Super Bowl loser frequently.

Plus, the Bengals were one of the rare Super Bowl teams to come out of nowhere, not having a winning season since 2015. We know Chase had a big impact on Joe Burrow’s breakout season, but is it sustainable when the conference is so loaded?

In 2021, the Bengals skipped many steps at once. I think they fall back this year.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-10)

BMR Preview: When you consider that the Steelers won eight games in 2019 without Ben Roethlisberger, and Matt Nagy won at least eight games multiple times with Mitch Trubisky in Chicago, then it is not at all crazy for Mike Tomlin to get eight wins (in 17 games) with Trubisky in Pittsburgh.

But in the end, the best thing I could do for the Steelers is have them sweep Cleveland, finishing ahead of the Browns in every season since 1990.

Whether it’s 7-10 or 8-9 to decide a perfectly set over/under by the bookies, I think this is the first losing season for Tomlin in Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger at his worst is still better than Trubisky, who is 1-18 in his career when he’s trailing by more than a field goal in the fourth quarter.

The Steelers were 9-2-1 last year in close games, leading the league in 4QC (6) and GWD (7). Roethlisberger had as many game-winning drives in 2021 as Trubisky has his whole career. The close games are not going to go Pittsburgh’s way this year.

And the defense is still going to get blown at times out despite the efforts of T.J. Watt, who could break the sack record if he stays healthy for 17 games.

With Kenny Pickett on the bench, this is the first NFL season since 2007 where we won’t have a rookie quarterback starting in Week 1. If the Steelers get off to a really bad start, I could see Pickett starting after the bye in Week 10.

But I would not bet on him for Offensive Rookie of the Year. This offensive line is going to be badly exposed this year when the quarterback isn’t getting rid of the ball in record time.

4. Cleveland Browns (6-11)

BMR Preview: I guess we’ll find out what the price of shame is in 2023 for Cleveland, assuming Deshaun Watson can stay out of the DMs.

NFC NORTH

1. Green Bay Packers (10-7)

BMR Preview: It’s not that I think Davante Adams is worth three wins to the Packers. I just think this is the closest situation to 2015 for Aaron Rodgers, which is the season where he started 6-0 before falling apart after that Denver game and going into his weird odyssey before we saw the return of Peak Rodgers in 2020. But there won’t be a three-peat MVP for him, and the division is better this year.

2. Minnesota Vikings (10-7)

BMR Preview: I enjoyed writing this preview just because I got to take shots at Mike Zimmer’s nepotism and Kirk Cousins’ fondness of staying around .500. Granted, I am nervous about this pick for that latter reason, but I think Kevin O’Connell is going to be a good hire that will make proper use of the skill players here. The defense can’t be any worse than it was the last two years. Minnesota was high on the list of “losing teams who should have had a winning record” last year, but that’s what you’ve come to expect from a Cousins-led team. Silly me, I expect something more along the lines of 2019 when they won 10 games and a playoff game.

But with O’Connell coming from the Rams, don’t discount him looking at this as a last-chance season for Cousins akin to the Jared Goff situation when the Rams moved on to acquire Stafford. The league is kind of running out of proven quarterbacks to move for 2023, though if Mr. Rodgers wanted to follow in Brett Favre’s footsteps to the Purple Team next year…

3. Detroit Lions (6-11)

BMR Preview: The Lions could have easily won six games last season if long field goals went their way against the Ravens, Vikings, and Steelers. This team will compete hard under Dan Campbell, but it’s still hard to see them eating many W’s in 2022. Aidan Hutchinson falling into their laps with the No. 2 pick was pretty convenient though in a draft without quarterbacks. Now we’ll see if Jared Goff could show more or if they will just move on next season.

4. Chicago Bears (5-12)

BMR Preview: I ended up changing this win total three times before writing this as the final team of 2022, including a last-second flip with Detroit in the division. I’m just not sold on Matt Eberflus coming over from Indy, nor do I like the receivers, or losing Allen Robinson, Khalil Mack, and Akiem Hicks.

The cards are stacked against Justin Fields breaking out this year, but we’ll see what happens.

Ending on a personal note: It’s wild to think that when I was in 10th grade computer class, I shared a corner with a senior and the best athlete in our school, and 20 years later, he is the offensive coordinator of the Chicago Bears. I wish Luke Getsy well, but I really wish I could go back in time and joke to him that his football future will involve trying to turn around the offense of an NFL team that had better quarterback play before 1950 than anything we’ve seen since.

PLAYOFFS

Truth be told, my first run through of the schedule had Cleveland at 4-12, Philadelphia at 14-3, and all four AFC West Teams with 10+ wins. Things didn’t finish that way, but we’ll see how it goes.

AFC

  • 1. Buffalo (13-4)
  • 2. LA Chargers (12-5)
  • 3. Baltimore (12-5)
  • 4. Indianapolis (11-6)
  • 5. Kansas City (10-7)
  • 6. Denver (10-7)
  • 7. Miami (10-7)

This looks exciting with five new playoff teams, no? The Chargers did come out on the winning end of two memorable playoff games with Miami in 1980 and 1994. Maybe they’ll do it again here. I’d pick Baltimore to win at home against Wilson’s Broncos. Chiefs at Colts brings back more playoff memories for sure. Lousy ones for KC fans, but I can see Mahomes winning there, and it’d be in the best interest to set up the Bills rematch people probably want most from this postseason.

Look, I get it. Bills-Chiefs could be the best rivalry going if they keep meeting in big games, and last year was unbelievable drama. But I have it in the second round here, and I think the Bills will love not seeing Tyreek in that one. Allen is also 3-0 in home playoff games and 0-3 on the road. Ravens at Chargers is a big one. It was 34-6 when they met last year. Feels like a close loss for the Chargers coming there at home. But a great year nonetheless.

Ravens at Bills for the AFC Championship Game. Rematch from two playoffs ago. Both Allen and Lamar trying to adhere to the Five-Year Rule and get the Super Bowl ring this year. I have Bills Super Bowl futures bets from right after Super Bowl 56 ended. They were the team I was all for, and I’m a little annoyed to see them enjoy the best odds all summer and going into Week 1. Teams like that do sometimes win it all as the 2018 and 2016 Patriots prove, but it is hard to be the favorite all year long in the cap era and deliver.

Either way, you’re getting your fifth-year QB narrative here. It’s either going to be Allen taking that next step or Lamar betting on himself, almost like Joe Flacco in 2012, and getting Harbaugh to another Super Bowl.

Since I have to make a pick, I’m going to stick with Buffalo, but you can see the hedge I have on Baltimore here. They both make so much sense to me, but Allen’s playoff highs are too hard to ignore while Jackson has struggled in January. Von was a great addition too.

NFC

  • 1. LA Rams (12-5)
  • 2. Tampa Bay (12-5)
  • 3. Philadelphia (11-6)
  • 4. Green Bay (10-7)
  • 5. Minnesota (10-7)
  • 6. San Francisco (10-7)
  • 7. Arizona (10-7)

Of course, I fought to get Arizona in the playoffs only to lose right away in Tampa Bay, another No. 2 seed after losing the tie-breaker to the Rams. I think the Eagles can beat the 49ers at home, and Rodgers would probably love seeing Minnesota in Green Bay in January.

Philly loses in Tampa Bay for the second year in a row. Packers at Rams is a good one in the second round we thought we’d see last year. I like the Rams at home. Then look at that: Buccaneers at Rams rematch in the NFC Championship Game. Like Bills-Chiefs, maybe this is just the best matchup anyway and the one fans want to see the most.

Brady is taking this one after Stafford has his worst playoff game ever.

SUPER BOWL LVII

Buffalo 45, Tampa Bay 17

We’re only going to score 17 points?

No reverse jinx this time. No Scott Norwood bullshit. Josh Allen cements his legacy by putting an end to New England’s run in the AFC East and Brady’s run in the NFL by dropping 45 points on the 45-year-old quarterback’s team.

Buffalo, you are finally Super Bowl champs. Enjoy it.

TL;DR version: I will stan any AFC quarterback, even if it’s Derek Carr, as long as they don’t let Brady win one more.

Best 15 New TV Shows of 2021

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

That’s not a typo. While 2022 is almost halfway over (!), I am only now getting to my top new TV series that debuted in 2021. I wanted to match the effort I put in last year with my top 12 series of 2020, but I just never got around to doing this until this week, the start of a dead zone for me with no NFL or NBA games.

After starting accounts with Disney+, Paramount+, and Apple TV for the first time in the last year, there are more shows than ever to watch. I watched 81 new series that started in 2021, but I was able to break that down into a top 15 I feel good about. Are there some series I still missed? Of course.

I’m not going to share the full list I broke down, but chances are if one of your favorites didn’t make the cut, I just didn’t enjoy it as much as you did. Station Eleven (HBO Max) is likely one big example of that. I really loved the parts that focused on Jeevan, but anything with the Traveling Symphony in the future fell flat for me. Only Murders in the Building (Hulu) reminded me of how people enjoy Martin Short and Steve Martin way more than I ever have or likely will.

Note: limited series and anime are included; all documentary series are excluded.

I will do my best to avoid spoilers, but no promises…

15. Dexter: New Blood (Showtime)

This may have snuck in at No. 15 just so I could talk about it. Technically a new series, this does do some justice to make up for the horrific original series finale that Dexter gave us in 2013. A fucking lumberjack? Fortunately, New Blood is better than the last four seasons of the original series, but it still is not up to par with the best of that series. Still, it was cool to see Dexter back with Deb as his new dark passenger, and Clancy Brown did a more than respectable job as the villain. The kid playing teenage Harrison did not bother me, though I have no interest in seeing a spin-off with him. Just let this thing die.

As for that ending, it was poorly received again, but I actually thought it made sense and was necessary. Would I have shot the scene differently to make it more dramatic? Of course, but I really cannot complain with the story choice they made this time.

14. Scenes from a Marriage (HBO)

This modern take on the Ingmar Bergman classic was a showcase for the acting chops of Oscar Isaac and Jessica Chastain, two actors I’ve taken an increased liking to in the last year or two. They both shine here, but dialogue-heavy series must be in your wheelhouse if you are going to enjoy this one. I’m happy to say they took an existing IP and made it their own thing instead of a straight remake.

13. WandaVision (Disney+)

Spoiler alert: this is the only Marvel show on my list for 2021. It was the first one I watched, and I thought it was the best one. 2021 really was the year of spoofing the classic sitcom, laugh track and all, but unlike with AMC’s Kevin Can Fuck Himself, we got a pretty clear answer of why this was done in WandaVision. Paul Bettany and Elizabeth Olsen are great together, but one season is the right length for this unique idea.

12. Midnight Mass (Netflix)

Our first Netflix entry may have been slept on, but this was a really strong take on grief and loss combined with a more typical horror storyline. But Hamish Linklater was fantastic as the priest, and the ending was something you’ll never forget. I got a bit emotional during this one a couple times.

11. Yellowjackets (Showtime)

Between the Fear Street movie trilogy on Netflix, Cruel Summer, and this show, there was a lot of 90s nostalgia in 2021. This show did a great job of balancing multiple timelines with the plane crash survivors as teenagers and the current-day survivors navigating a new mystery. Christina Ricci is supposed to be the “ugly” one of the bunch, but she still looks pretty damn good and it was nice to see her in a big role again. I look forward to the second season and where they can take this one. The first season did not take all the predictable routes you may have expected from a story about a plane crash.

10. Tear Along the Dotted Line (Netflix)

This is probably my most obscure choice for the year, but it’s an animated series from an Italian, and it does a shockingly effective job of covering depression, anxiety, and a lost love. I’d probably have it higher if it was a little longer, but this was well done and should be watched on Netflix by those having BoJack withdrawal.

9. To Your Eternity (watched on HBO Max)

I wanted to watch some great, new animes as that was missing from my 2020 collection. This one delivered with good animation, interesting characters, a few shocking and emotional moments, and the second half really gripped me with the storyline. I was mad when I finished it because I wanted more, but fortunately a second season is on the way.

8. The White Lotus (HBO Max)

I was a fan of Mike White’s Enlightened series with Laura Dern on HBO, so it was cool to see him get another chance with The White Lotus, a high-caliber dramedy. You get the clue right away that someone on this island is going to die before the trip is over, but that mystery takes a backseat to the drama these characters get into, and the rhythmic music and sounds keep a steady pace over the six episodes that fly by when you watch them. Murray Bartlett (Armond) and Jennifer Coolidge (Tanya) are highlights, and you can never go wrong with seeing more Sydney Sweeney as the generations clash in this one. I’m a bit worried of using this as an anthology series with different characters, but if they have more stories to tell, I’ll watch them.

7. It’s a Sin (HBO Max)

I watched several movies about the early days of AIDS last year, but this British series from Russell T. Davies (Doctor Who) was the best, most touching, and scariest of them all. It does a great job of showing the impact this virus had on a close-knit group of gay friends in the 80s. After later watching Years and Years (2019), which I would highly recommend, there’s a raw honesty in Davies’ work that I just don’t see as much in a lot of American works, especially those that deal with LGBT stories as we tend to make them too preachy in this country. Davies’ approach is much more authentic as he’s not afraid to show us the flaws in these characters, but honoring them with respect is still the goal.

6. Invincible (Amazon Prime)

Went in cold to this franchise. I remember watching the pilot and thinking this felt pretty tame and aimed towards younger kids. Then that scene happened. Holy shit. I was hooked from there, and an impressive voice cast (J.K. Simmons, Steven Yeun, Sandra Oh, Walton Goggins, etc.) sure helps bring the violence and story to life. I can’t wait for the second season.

5. Hacks (HBO Max)

I know I’m late to this 2021 party when I’ve already finished the second season of this show. But I love it. Jean Smart should win all the awards, the actress playing Ava is a delightful find for the industry, and the chemistry between Jimmy and nepotism Kayla is always fun. It’s also the only legitimate live-action comedy that made it to my top 25 finalists as I think comedy is so hard to do these days with the way people get offended, real or not, by everything. If you can make a show that’s funny without having to be animated – so not Big Mouth – then you are well ahead of the curve these days.

Since this is about the 2021 series, I tried to not let my viewing of season two influence my ranking. Season two is really just as solid as the first season, though I love to watch the world building at the start of a show, so seeing Ava have to win Deborah over in season one probably edges it out over season two. The way it ended in season two, they really could have called it a series, but I am happy to see they’re bringing it back for a third season.

Like I said, there is a real comedy drought these days, so let’s keep every good one we can find.

4. Dopesick (Hulu)

This series is almost like The Wire for the opioid crisis. I am not saying the character work is as strong as that HBO classic, but the writing and presentation is on par with how David Simon does things in his series. You get perspectives from everyone: doctors, patients, addicts, pharmacists, sales reps, the criminal Sackler family, lawyers, the DEA, and whistleblowers. Michael Keaton gets top billing, but he might not even be on screen as often as Will Poulter (a conflicted sales rep) or Michael Stuhlbarg (Richard Sackler).

No series on my list is as important as this one, because it does expose just how criminally negligent this family was in making sure Oxycontin was being pushed to people in pain without any care for the addiction to come. This show should make you furious, but it is absolutely required viewing and it is so well done it hurts.

3. Mare of Easttown (HBO)

Guess I am still a sucker for a great whodunit murder mystery with an excellent lead actress (Kate Winslet) and a jaw-dropping scene that paid homage to Silence of the Lambs. You’ll know it when you see it. I also was not able to predict the killer until the very end, so good job on that with the usual red herrings and dead ends. I hope they just leave it as a limited series, though I won’t object to seeing more Mare on my TV.

2. Maid (Netflix)

Can it still be underrated if it has glowing reviews and 77,000 votes on IMDb? But that’s still half the ratings of Mare of Easttown, and I still feel like Maid doesn’t get talked about enough as the best limited series of 2021. Margaret Qualley delivers what should be a star-turning performance in the lead, and while I usually shit on nepotism, her performance and the casting of her real-life mom (Andie MacDowell) as her mother took this series to the highest level.

Like Dopesick, it’s a series that makes you angry about the way our systems continuously fail the people who need help the most in this country. It just never seems like she is going to carve out a good life for her child and keep her away from her abusive ex. But you keep watching with optimism and the show does not disappoint.

1. Squid Game (Netflix)

I’m the guy who hounded Criterion for years to put Memories of Murder on Blu-ray. Of course I was all over this quirky, original South Korean series that took the world by storm last fall.

I watched Alice in Borderland a year earlier, which was a similar series about people having to pass games that could kill them. That’s definitely worth watching too, but Squid Game really amps up the emotional punch with a more diverse cast (ages and backgrounds) of characters.

It’s crazy, it’s intense, it’s sad, and there’s a big twist at the end. This is also why I really worry that season two will not deliver, because no matter how many unique, new games they can come up with, nothing will beat seeing this for the first time. Watching a sympathetic character get betrayed (Ali) or a smug prick meet his demise (toilet sex having Jang Deok-su) will always make you think of season one. Been there, done that.

But what a ride it was for nine episodes.

With my top two picks this year, I guess Netflix is proof that if you fire enough bullets, you’re bound to hit something. Now if only I could have thought of a non-gun reference to not sound like such a typical American.

Honorable Mentions/Fun Binges

  • Arcane (unique visual style, but I wished I loved the story more)
  • Chucky (this had every right to suck but it was a lot of fun; declines a bit after Jennifer Tilly appears)
  • Cruel Summer (90s nostalgia in a teen whodunit)
  • Halston (must see for Ewan McGregor fans as he kills it)
  • Heels (indie wrestling show done right)
  • Inside Job (good year for animated series with this conspiracy theory workplace comedy)
  • Lupin (hard to believe one guy can pull all these cons off, but it’s entertaining)
  • My Name (solid South Korean action series on Netflix)
  • Super Crooks (another interesting take on baddies with superpowers)
  • Tokyo Revengers (solid time-travel anime with more to come)

Finally, here are the previous lists from past years. These would all change a little based on shows I was slow to get to or only discovered later.

Happy binging, and remember I am always tweeting about shows on Twitter. I already see strong competition for my best of 2022, which hopefully will be finished well before June of 2023.

Reasons Why People Lose At Poker

~ Scott ~ 3 Comments

A player’s winning chances in poker are largely determined by their abilities, the quality of their opponents, and the element of luck.

A player’s ability is the most important factor that determines his chances. An inability to make the right decision, take advantage of weak opponents, and keep emotions in check combines to create reasons why people lose at poker.

These are some of the reasons why people lose at Poker.

Poor Strategy

A lack of a tested and trusted strategy can lead to a poor gameplay that can cause you to lose at poker. The inability to adjust your strategy according to your opponent’s play will reduce your ability to impose your game on your opponent and take advantage of their weakness.

Developing a potent strategy which you have tested in several times and improve on will give you an edge over your opponent and increase your winning chances.

Lack Of Emotional Control

Lack of emotional control is responsible for many losses in poker. When the going gets tough, some players often employ deficient strategies that weaken the game and make them vulnerable.

Humans are emotional entities, hence emotional reactions are natural. However, the ability to consciously control your emotions in poker can come with a heavy price.

Learning to numb your emotions while on the table and also employing calming techniques can help you keep your emotions in check.

Lack Of Studying

Studying poker gives players the theoretical knowledge which they will apply in their play.

When you come up against an opponent that studies the game, it will be obvious from their play. Players who don’t study tend to have a poor strategy that results in losses.

If you’re getting outplayed and outsmarted by your opponents, the chances are your opponents study more than you do hence they have better strategies. If this is the case, you need to increase the time you spend studying poker.

Lack Of Planning Ahead

One of the reasons why players lose often at poker is due to the inability to plan ahead. A lack of a tested and trusted strategy results in a poor play that leads to loss.

Inability to plan causes players to make pie choices that all lead to a quick loss of liquidity hence reducing their time and chances at the table. The lack of planning will make you reactive instead of proactive. 

Lack Of Aggression

There are players who fail to employ aggressive techniques even when the odds are in their favor. One of the easiest way to place your sport bet wagers is to be calm and observant. And of course use the right betting platforms!

Lack of aggression is common with ABC Poker type of players who tends to avoid playing when they don’t have their best hands and only raises and calls premium hands preflop.

Non aggressive players rarely bluff or loosen up unless they’re certain they will win. This strategy is often enticing to newbies and average players who don’t want to risk losing money.

They don’t really bluff or loosen up, and try to avoid getting in stacks unless they’re a massive favorite to win. Non aggressive players thrive better when facing poor players who are poor at reading the game.

However, when up against aggressive players, they will gradually lose money while waiting for the chance to win big. Additionally, non aggressive players rarely win big with this style.

Lack of Self-Reflection

Another reason why players lose at the table is due to the inability to recognize their weaknesses. When you don’t know where to improve, you tend to keep repeating the same mistakes.

A lack of self-reflection causes a player to overestimate their own playing ability while underestimating their opponents.

Lack Of Patience

A lack of patience is a common reason why poor and average players lose at poker. There are players who can’t resist the urge to play any good pairs they have irrespective of what their opponents might have.

Lack of patience will make you eager to win, hence you will end up making silly calls that will result in loss. By staying patient, you will be able to bid your time and make a good play and a good return at the right time.

Lack Of Discipline

Even when a player has a poker strategy they might not be able to stick to the game plan due to a lack of discipline.

Lack of discipline will lead to a poor playing technique that will expose your weaknesses and make you easy to beat.

The ability to stay disciplined means you should be able to apply and adjust your strategy and also respect your opponent.

Final Thoughts

There are different reasons why players lose at poker that have little or nothing to do with the quality of their opponent.

The inability to plan, manage, and see off a game combines to create multiple factors that leads to loss in poker. If you find yourself losing at poker, it might be time to examine your game and locate your weaknesses.

NFL Stat Oddity: Super Bowl LVI

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I certainly did not come into the 2021 NFL season expecting a Super Bowl between the Bengals and Rams. I had a Buccaneers-Chiefs rematch with the same outcome in the hopes that my uncanny ability to pick a Super Bowl team, but the wrong Super Bowl outcome would strike again. Either the Chiefs would win, or the Buccaneers would lose.

But the Bengals and Rams knocked those teams out on their way to this matchup, the first in Super Bowl history between No. 4 seeds. I still was able to live up to my half-right, ultimately-wrong Super Bowl outcome history by predicting the exact final score (23-20), but for the wrong winner. Got the spread right at least (Bengals +4), which concludes my most accurate season of predictions yet.

Super Bowl LVI will not go down as an all-time great Super Bowl, but it was a close, competitive game all the way through, and you can’t really argue with a game where so many of the best players on paper were the best players on the field. The Rams won largely on the strengths of their team (passing offense, pass rush) and the Bengals lost largely on their weaknesses (bad offensive line and red zone mediocrity). In other words, this game actually was decided by logical outcomes that can be easily explained, so that alone makes it a pretty fvcking good Super Bowl.

The officiating was a wash. There was a nice game-winning touchdown drive. The two best players in the game put the Rams over the top in the final 90 seconds to get this win. There were some interesting strategy decisions to question. The halftime show was good. Larry David had a pretty, pretty good commercial to make up for all the garbage we saw. Another championship was won in spite of the running game.

All in all, it was a good experience, and I want to share some final thoughts on the game and this 2021 season before finally pushing the start button on this offseason.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Sacks vs. Interceptions: 7-2 Wins for the Rams

If you read some of my Super Bowl previews, you know I was touting this as a matchup of sacks (Joe Burrow) vs. interceptions (Matthew Stafford), and the defense that would get the most splash plays should lead their team to a low-scoring win. I also said Cooper Kupp was inevitable and the best value bet for MVP, but I blew my parlay on that one because of one Nikola Jokic assist on Saturday. Bummer.

But the low scoring, defensive slugfest proved to be accurate. The Rams sacked Burrow seven times with six of those coming in bunches in the second half alone. Stafford was intercepted twice while the Bengals had no official turnovers, putting the Rams on a short list of just three teams that won the Super Bowl with a turnover differential of minus-2 or worse. The 1970 Colts (-3) beat the Cowboys and the 1979 Steelers (-2) beat the Rams.

Teams are now 30-3 in the Super Bowl when they are +2 or better in turnovers. But it makes perfect sense why the Rams were able to overcome this margin.

For starters, the Rams mitigated the impact of Stafford’s two picks. He did not have the big pick-six that he did four times in the regular season to hurt his team. He threw up a shot to the end zone on a third-and-14 at the Cincinnati 43 late in the second quarter. Could he have tried something safer to set up a field goal? Perhaps. Matt Gay is not exactly Justin Tucker when it comes to kickers. But I don’t hate him trying that shot with a 13-10 lead. It was one of the few times the Bengals tried their three-man rush they had success in Kansas City with, but it was feast or famine this time as Stafford had a couple touchdowns against it before the pick.

The Bengals also botched the moment with a taunting penalty after Vernon Hargreaves, a mega bust in this league, solidified his bust legacy by coming off the bench in street clothes to celebrate.

Instead of starting at the 20, the Bengals were at their own 10 and ended up punting after Leonard Floyd finally got to Burrow for the first sack of the night on a third down. The vaunted pass rush for the Rams was not doing anything worthwhile against this Cincinnati offensive line prior to that series.

When Stafford started the third quarter with an interception on a tipped ball, that’s when the game could have really fell apart for the Rams. They just allowed a 75-yard touchdown and the Bengals were leading 17-13. Stafford was a little off on the throw, but Ben Skowronek is the receiver who tipped it to turn it into an interception and give the Bengals the ball at the Los Angeles 31.

If the Rams allow a touchdown there and fall behind 24-13, this could go much differently. But again, this is when Aaron Donald and the pass rush came to life and saved the day. Donald pushed Burrow out of bounds on a scramble that went down as a sack. That seemed to fire him up and he finished the drive with a monster sack on third-and-3 at the LA 11. The Bengals had to settle for a 38-yard field goal and 20-13 lead.

Cincinnati never scored again and never got deeper than the Los Angeles 49 on the final five drives.

That Donald sack was massive to keep it a one-score game, and the Rams continued to take Burrow down from there with five more sacks. The Bengals tried to join the 2001 Jaguars and 2018 Texans as the only teams in NFL history to win multiple games when allowing seven sacks, and these would be two playoff games for the Bengals. But it was not to be this time.

While the Rams did not register an official takeaway, that ignores the way the Bengals started and ended this game with a failed pass play on fourth-and-1 at midfield. That basically evens up the turnover count at two a piece, and when you consider the plus-five advantage the Rams had in sacks, it makes sense why they ultimately won the game.

In both cases, the Bengals inexplicably tried to run backup running back Samaje Perine at Aaron Donald on third-and-1. I get why Perine was in there for the final drive as a receiving back, but is he really that much better at it than Joe Mixon? But if you’re going to run on third-and-1 early in the game, why not use Mixon? Why not go away from where Donald is? Both times it put the Bengals in a bind on fourth-and-1. The first time, Burrow did not see a wide open Tee Higgins, and his throw was deflected away and never had a chance. Just a bad play. On the last drive, the Bengals needed a quick hitter, but it was Donald coming dead-to-rights for that eighth sack, only to see Burrow still get the ball away. But the pass fell harmlessly incomplete with 39 seconds left, and the Rams were champions.

In the end, it was not a sack that ended the Bengals’ season, but it might as well have been with the way Donald got to Burrow on that play. But some better run choices or pass designs on third-and-1 could have helped the Bengals avoid those two fourth downs, which were really just two turnovers, stat sheet be damned.

Throwing two picks likely cost Stafford the glory of a Super Bowl MVP award, but they were done in a way that did not cost his team a championship. But it also helps that for the third playoff game in a row, he delivered the signature game-winning drive of his career.

Stafford and the Career Moment of a Signature Game-Winning Drive

The Rams are the first team in NFL history to win three straight playoff games by three points. If they didn’t, then the Bengals very well may have earned that distinction in overtime. That’s just how these teams were this postseason. All three Los Angeles wins required a game-winning drive with the winning points scored after the two-minute warning, but this was the first time it was a touchdown for Stafford and the Rams.

This feat is going to put the 2021 Rams in the conversation of the “luckiest” Super Bowl winners of all time, but I am not convinced they would rank that high on the list. What were their breaking points during this playoff run? They didn’t have a Red-Right 88 or Tuck Rule or Nick Harper getting tackled by Ben Roethlisberger or Rahim Moore-Jacoby Jones or Scott Norwood miss or Malcolm Butler interception at the 1 moment along the way.

Hell, the Rams aren’t luckier than the 2016 Patriots, who needed every break imaginable to come back from 28-3 against Atlanta. For that matter, these Rams almost repeated that failure with a blown 27-3 lead in Tampa Bay, but hopefully they have ended Tom Brady for good in the NFL. Stafford and Kupp beating Todd Bowles’ Cover-0 call on a great throw and catch was about talent beating stubbornness more than just random luck.

Speaking of luck, this whole postseason may have changed on the 49ers blocking a punt for a touchdown in Green Bay in the divisional round. Yes, the Green Bay special teams were historically awful, but that’s still a pretty fluky touchdown to score, no less a game-winning one. Without that, the Packers likely host these Rams, and that matchup has not been kind to McVay’s Rams, nor has Lambeau been good for Stafford’s career. Instead, the Rams got another crack at Jimmy Garoppolo and a 10-7 team that was the last to sneak into the NFC tournament on the strength of an overtime win in Los Angeles.

The 2021 Rams are the only Super Bowl winner to play teams with fewer than 11 wins in both the conference championship game and Super Bowl (minimum 16-game season).

Against the 49ers, Stafford did have an interception dropped in the fourth quarter while trailing 17-14 on what turned into a game-tying field goal. It wouldn’t have been the end of the season, but it could have been important. That was one of the scariest moments for the Rams this postseason, but they overcame every gut punch to win three straight nail-biters.

This Super Bowl was definitely a grind with Stafford receiving no help from the ground game. The Rams liked to run on first down, but it was not effective on any down. The three backs combined for 19 carries for 30 yards. Throw in a major knee injury to Odell Beckham Jr. in the second quarter after he looked poised for a huge game (52 yards and a touchdown), and Stafford must have felt like he was back in Detroit. Shaky line, no running game, one great receiver, and trying to win with randoms like Skowronek and tight end Brycen Hopkins, who I never even heard of before Sunday night. Hopkins had to play with Tyler Higbee inactive, so Stafford was down Beckham and Higbee for most of the game.

When Skowronek tipped that ball for an interception, it would have been easy for Stafford to start panicking and forcing things. But one of the sneakiest big plays of the game came on a third-and-8 following the pick and Cincinnati field goal that made it 20-13. The Rams were about to go three-and-out, but Stafford threw a great pass downfield to running back Darrell Henderson, which was something the Rams tried a few times in the game with their backs. He caught it for 15 yards, and the drive continued for a field goal. That could have been another game-changing moment if the Rams went three-and-out and put the Bengals in good field position.

But speaking of field position, you know this game was a defensive battle when these teams had six drives that started at their own 40 or better and only got one touchdown out of those drives. Four ended in no points.

One thing the Rams kept going to in this game was a quick snap in the hurry-up offense. It did not work well. In fact, Stafford rushed the first interception when he could have took it down to the two-minute warning and had a better play ready. It reminded me of the 2006 Colts trying to quick snap the Ravens in the divisional round. Peyton Manning said he saw Brady and the Patriots do this to the Jets the week before, and he wanted to try it. It did not work well either, but the Ravens lost that game because they scored six points.

The Rams looked lost on offense after the Beckham injury, which was tough to see after how well he’s been playing to get to this point. Stafford started losing his patience and throwing deep balls without success. Kupp was being covered better than usual. The Bengals really seemed to be in control, but the Cincinnati offense never added on to the lead.

If you give Stafford six chances at a clutch touchdown drive, he’s going to deliver at least once. When the Rams had to settle for a third-quarter field goal, that was because their little trick play, akin to the Philly Special, with Kupp throwing a pass to Stafford failed on a third-and-5. Even if the throw was good, it was setting Stafford up for a big hit at the sticks. Just a bad call that tried to match Cincinnati’s trick play earlier where Joe Mixon threw an impressive touchdown to Higgins.

Fortunately for Stafford, with 6:13 left, McVay finally put the game in his hands. Enough with the runs that kept stalling drives. The Rams were either going to win or lose on the quarterback they brought in and the few healthy receivers he had left. Fortunately, Kupp was still one of those healthy guys and he took the drive over to clinch his MVP award.

The whole thing could have gone south after four plays with the Rams facing a fourth-and-1 at their own 30. McVay went for it, and I was really concerned about a Stafford sneak because he’s looked terrible doing it this postseason. The line wasn’t getting any push either. But it was a good call to give the ball to Kupp in motion, who weaved his way for 7 yards. The Rams did not have a run longer than 8 yards on the night, but none were bigger than that play.

While I never heard of Hopkins before the night, he looked good, catching all four of his targets for 47 yards. He had two grabs for 15 yards on the game-winning drive, including the first 9 yards and a key third down conversion along the way. But Kupp took over with 46 yards on the drive.

One of the biggest plays of the game was a target to Kupp that was not complete. After the two-minute warning, the Rams were 8 yards away from the end zone, but it was already third down. Stafford threw incomplete for Kupp, which would have set up a big fourth-and-goal at the 8, but a flag was thrown for defensive holding. It felt like a make-up call to me for the offensive pass interference the referees didn’t call on Higgins’ 75-yard touchdown in the third quarter. If Skowronek or Hopkins is the target of this pass, I doubt it gets called. But with Kupp? I think it was a mixture of superstar treatment and a make-up call to give the Rams a first down. But again, the Bengals got a touchdown earlier they shouldn’t have had too, so I think the officiating, which was overall fine, was a wash in the end.

Kupp had a great catch for a touchdown negated by off-setting penalties. Eli Apple was called for DPI on a more obvious call that put the ball at the 1. You can certainly make an argument for letting them score to conserve time, even if it was a 20-16 game. A four-play stand at the 1 is tough. Stafford’s sneak failed, though that felt like it was on purpose to burn a Cincinnati timeout. Stafford threw for Kupp against Apple, and you know what happened there.

https://twitter.com/the__johnw/status/1493059258006528005

That was a 15-play, 79-yard drive. It is the 16th game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter or overtime of a Super Bowl. I think an argument could be made for this ranking in the top five for game-winning Super Bowl drives, but still behind Eli Manning’s 2007 march against the 18-0 Patriots, Ben Roethlisberger to Santonio Holmes against Arizona, and Joe Montana against the 1988 Bengals. Maybe the other Eli drive (Mario Manningham catch) gets in there even though the touchdown was weak with Ahmad Bradshaw haphazardly breaking the plane. Maybe Nick Foles’ drive against the 2017 Patriots was better, though I don’t really remember anything outside of the Zach Ertz touchdown. This is somewhere around the top five for a Super Bowl.

Certainly, the biggest drive of Stafford’s career, which is crazy since I wrote the same thing about his game-winning drive in Tampa Bay, then again with the comeback over the 49ers, and now for sure the definitive 4QC/GWD of his career in the Super Bowl. What a three-week run.

With the win, Stafford now has 35 fourth-quarter comeback wins, which moves him into sixth all time with only select company ahead of him.

Suddenly, the quarterback who was 8-68 against teams with a winning record coming into 2021 almost doubled that total with seven such wins this season.

I still do not believe Stafford is a lock for the Hall of Fame, but his chances just shot up considerably. He likely has a better chance now than Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers. He is 5 yards away from 50,000, is one of six quarterbacks with multiple 40-touchdown pass seasons, has the high number of 4QC/GWD, and he’s always been a prolific volume passer. He’s just rarely ever been that efficient or considered a top 10 quarterback in his career. But if this Super Bowl run sparks an excellent finish for him in Los Angeles with another deep playoff run (or more), then I think he’ll be a lock soon as he passes 60,000 yards and 400 touchdown passes.

Defense did a lot of the heavy lifting for Stafford this postseason, but he also had to carry the offense without much help at all from the running game. I always blew off that criticism about a lack of 100-yard rushers in Detroit. As if it would matter if his backs combined for 90 or 110 yards in any given game. He needed more help from his defense, especially against good teams, and that was something he got this year.

Can he do it in more than one year to show that this isn’t the one-off special where everything just fell into place for the Rams? We’ll see but hats off to Stafford for reshaping his narrative this season in a way few quarterbacks ever have. In his 13th season, Stafford joins John Elway (15th) as the only quarterbacks to win their first Super Bowl more than a dozen years into their career.

Cooper Kupp: Best Wide Receiver Season Ever?

Had Stafford threw his game-winning touchdown to someone like Hopkins, perhaps the quarterback would have been named Super Bowl MVP. But Kupp catching it to cap off his night with 99 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns solidified his MVP award.

Now the question is was it the best wide receiver season in NFL history?

When you include the postseason, Kupp absolutely has an argument. No receiver has ever had a season this prolific end with a championship.

By playing 21 games, he has an unfair advantage in compiling totals, but he still caught 22 more passes than anyone (178 total), and he shattered 2008 Larry Fitzgerald’s yardage record by 448 yards in only one extra game. Kupp (2,425 yards) has the only 2,000-yard receiving season in NFL history when you include the playoffs, and his 22 touchdown catches are tied with two Jerry Rice seasons (13 games in 1987 and 19 games in 1989) for the second most in history. Randy Moss had 24 touchdown catches in 19 games in 2007, but those two touchdowns aren’t worth more than the near 900-yard difference between the two. Moss had just two catches for 32 yards in the first two playoff games that year before catching a touchdown in the Super Bowl after Corey Webster fell.

Kupp also got a rare MVP vote for a wide receiver in the regular season and became the fourth player since the merger to win the receiving triple crown. Kupp caught at least five passes for 60 yards in all 21 games this season; the second-longest streak in NFL history. He had at least 90 yards in 19 of 21 games, another new standard established. Only 2008 Fitzgerald (seven) had more touchdown catches in a postseason than Kupp’s six this year.

When you add a game-winning touchdown catch and Super Bowl MVP to this remarkable, historic production and consistency, I think you can conclude that Kupp just had the best receiving season in NFL history.

Fvck that 1951 Elroy Hirsch noise. My guy wasn’t stat padding on a Friday afternoon against the New York Yanks.

Joe Burrow: Not the LOAT

Pregame tweet:

Admit it. For a brief moment in the second and third quarters, you saw a glimmer of Joe Burrow becoming the new LOAT (Luckiest of All Time) in the first game after Tom Brady retired.

But then the avalanche of sacks came, Burrow actually had to score more than 13 points of offense to beat the Rams in the Super Bowl, and he couldn’t even get into field goal range on the final drive to force overtime. That’s not very Brady-like.

You’re probably never going to be the LOAT, Joe.

But there was a Brady-esque script for Burrow to follow in this one. He didn’t start the game well, just like Brady in every first quarter in every New England Super Bowl. Then Ja’Marr Chase beat Jalen Ramsey with a 46-yard gain on a one-handed catch. Joe Mixon helped fix the Bengals’ red zone mediocrity by throwing a nice touchdown to Higgins. Beckham injured his knee on a fluky no-contact play, and that seemed to destroy Stafford’s confidence. Burrow willed his defense to two picks, including a tipped ball, and just like that he was at the Los Angeles 31 with a 17-13 lead, which only came after Higgins got away with a facemask on Ramsey for a 75-yard touchdown that shouldn’t have counted. It was the longest catch Ramsey’s allowed in his career and Burrow had little to do with it happening.

THIS WAS BRADY BULLSHIT ALL OVER AGAIN.

Twenty years later and lazy Hollywood was giving us a god damn repeat. But Aaron Donald took things into his own hands and sacked Burrow on that third down to bring up a field goal and keep the game at 20-13.

From there, Burrow couldn’t do a thing with five sacks to come. Tyler Boyd let him down with a bad drop on third down at midfield prior to the Rams’ game-winning drive.

But Burrow had his Montana/Brady moment aligned for him. He got the ball back with 1:25 and two timeouts, only needing a field goal for overtime. That’s plenty of time to get a touchdown even. Brady had 1:21 left against the 2001 Rams in a tied game. But with a 2-9 record in 4QC opportunities, these are not the moments where we’ve seen Burrow shine so far in his career. Sacks and interceptions in fact feel more likely than touchdowns.

He got the drive off to a good start with two completions for 26 yards, but a deep ball on second-and-1 was questionable. Another Perine run on third down was ridiculous, stopped by Donald and company for no gain and costing the Bengals a timeout. With fourth-and-1 at the Los Angeles 49, the Bengals decided to throw much like the opening drive of the game where Burrow was off target. This time he was lucky to even get rid of the ball without Donald taking him out for a game-ending sack.

Burrow finished with a 39.7 QBR as seven sacks will kill you in that stat. Burrow only showed off his scrambling ability, which QBR loves, once in the game. A lot of times, he had no lane to take off.

I think Burrow’s Super Bowl performance will go down as one of the toughest games to analyze for a quarterback. For someone who dropped back over 40 times, it just never felt like he was an integral part of the game, for better or worse.

His two huge completions against Ramsey for 121 yards were basically all about what the receiver did on those plays. While the line held up early, the seven sacks show how outmatched they were against that front as Burrow had little time to throw. The Boyd drop was awful by Boyd. The Mixon TD pass was awesome by Mixon. Burrow was kind of just “being there” while the game unfolded around him all night. There’s very little that I would credit him for, positive or negative, in this game.

That’s why he better hopes he gets back to another of these, or his legacy is going to be difficult to say the least. I do not think this performance will age well. Youth is on the side of Burrow and this offense, and the offensive line will almost surely be upgraded in the offseason. But we have to stop doing that thing where we pencil in someone for future Super Bowl performances.

Only one LOAT existed in this era. Youth didn’t bring Dan Marino back to the Super Bowl after losing in his second season. Russell Wilson hasn’t been back after his third season. The last 11 seasons for Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh (2011-21), Drew Brees in New Orleans (2010-20), and Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay (2011-21) have produced zero Super Bowl appearances.

Every opportunity is precious and must be seized, because you never know if there will be another one.

Burrow will not be joining Brady as the only quarterbacks in NFL history to win four straight playoff games by fewer than eight points. Believe it or not, Stafford has a chance to do that the next time he starts a playoff game.

But even that future is uncertain.

Conclusion: Can the Rams Repeat?

I’ll make my first 2022 NFL prediction: I won’t be predicting a Rams-Bengals rematch in the Super Bowl.

Bold, I know. But the Bengals have that tough AFC to deal with, and frankly I don’t see anything Burrow did this year that Justin Herbert couldn’t do with the Chargers if they spend a little to upgrade the defense. Not to mention the Chiefs and Josh Allen in Buffalo, who people will be dying to see in a playoff rematch after that classic this year.

The Rams should have an easier shot of repeating in the NFC, but that’s all down the road to talk about. We have to see where Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and maybe Kyler Murray end up, and if Brady is really retired or not.

But I will say this felt like the culmination of a tough five-year journey for McVay and the Rams. They went all in and it paid off with a championship at the end. It’s not ending quite like the 2011-15 Broncos when Peyton Manning retired, but the Rams may not be at the top of their powers in 2022 like the Packers were in 1997 coming off their win. Imagine if Reggie White retired after that 1996 win.

While McVay said he’s not retiring, what if Donald does? That would be a huge loss for the defense as he’s clearly the best in the game and had an argument for Super Bowl MVP, about the only award he hasn’t won in his career. Andrew Whitworth should retire at left tackle, and obviously the line needs some work. That might be a serious knee injury for Beckham, and Robert Woods is coming off his own torn ACL. Stafford to Kupp will continue to be awesome, but that connection alone doesn’t win a ring.

But these Rams did prove that if you’re a winning team that keeps coming up short, you can get aggressive and add those final missing pieces with proven players instead of relying on the draft picks to be gold. This team was not built like Washington’s Dan Snyder throwing money at over-the-hill players. The Rams made some smart moves to help improve a team that had a winning record the last four years. I have a hard time finding fault with their strategy, especially when their two biggest studs, Donald and Kupp, carried the team late in the game to a win. Those were homegrown talents, and they finally had the help around them to pull this off.

People could have dismissed Tampa Bay winning last year as Brady being Brady. But when Stafford can leave Detroit after 12 years and instantly win a Super Bowl, nearly doubling his career wins against winning teams in one season? That’s a potential game changer in this league if you ask me. We’ll see if other teams follow suit.

To end on a personal note, I hope to accomplish some things this offseason that I did not do or do as well as I wanted to last year. I want to take a serious look at starting a Patreon (or something similar) where I can share stats/databases, write articles, and hopefully get into video work as I have many ideas there. Just need to get comfortable with editing and narrating. I want to add even more columns to my master game database, which is already around 290 columns. I want to study player prop bets deeper and get better at those. I want to get my diet back on track with more exercise after slacking off too much the last seven months. I am going to continue doing NBA picks for Bookmakers Review through the end of the season.

While I’ll be begging for some real football in the summer, these last few years have shown me just how much I love the offseason and being able to take a break from the game. The season is a grind, and at 285 games, this was the longest season ever. I’m still not thrilled with the 17th game and the seventh seeds in the playoffs, but they’re never going to shrink from that. It can only expand from here and we just have to get used to fans hyping up their shitty quarterback because he threw for 4,000 yards in a 9-8 season that got him a playoff berth.

Am I going to lose some interest and material if Roethlisberger and Brady are retired for good? Yeah, it’s tough seeing the players who you got to see from the beginning of their careers hang them up. I think we were blessed to have the quarterback stability we saw in the 2000s and 2010s. If Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t return for 2022, then there’s not a quarterback in the league who started a game before the 2008 season. I was doing my final semester of college then. Predicting a Justin Herbert or Lamar Jackson season just isn’t as easy as Philip Rivers and Joe Flacco were for me. We have a lot to still learn about the new blood in this league, and if Donald really does retire for the Rams, could that set off a trend towards much shorter careers as players are making more money and are concerned about CTE and wanting to be able to walk without pain in their thirties?

All I know for sure is that the offseason is so much sweeter when you do not despise the team who just won the Super Bowl.

So, congrats to the Rams, McVay, Stafford, Donald, Kupp, Beckham, Von, and happy retirement for Whitworth and Eric Weddle. You redeemed yourselves from 13-3 in LIII and from 8-68 against winning teams. You saved us from having to see Brady and Tampa Bay in another Super Bowl. And maybe, just maybe, you spared us from white sportswriters pontificating that Burrow is Tom Brady for the Kid Cudi generation.

Until next time.

NFL Super Bowl LVI Preview: Rams vs. Bengals

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

Coming into Game No. 285 of the longest season in NFL history, I am tired. The conference championship outcomes and multiple Tom Brady retirement announcements feel like eons ago. The groundhog has seen its shadow, it’s almost Valentine’s Day, and I’ve spent the week losing at least nine NBA parlays on one leg (usually one stat). I’m streaming an episode of Doom Patrol on my phone and have Pulp Fiction on TV in the other room for the millionth time as I try to compile this, relax, and start the countdown to kickoff on Sunday evening.

Cause despite it being mid-February, there is still one more NFL game to be played. I have already written 10,000 words on this game at Bookmakers Review, which I will link and recap below. But first, allow me to vent about the potential this game could have on the future of the league.

Super Bowl LVI: The End of One Era Begins Anew?

It is unusual for me to not have such a vested interest in a Super Bowl. There’s no obvious villain for me to root against (Tom Brady, Ray Lewis, John Elway, Jerry Jones). While I would love to see Aaron Donald (Pitt) and Cooper Kupp (incredible season) get a Super Bowl ring, there’s no significant rooting interest like I’ve had with the Steelers, Peyton Manning, and Patrick Mahomes.

Eighteen of the last 20 Super Bowls gave me a chance to root for Steelers/Manning/Mahomes or root against Brady and the Patriots. Let that sink in. With 2002 Raiders-Buccaneers, I hated both teams. Ditto for the 2000 Giants-Ravens bore that put me to sleep. You’d probably have to go back to 1991 Bills-Redskins to find the last time I was this disinterested in who wins the Super Bowl, and I wasn’t even watching the NFL at the time. I was coming home every day and watching Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles II: The Secret of the Ooze. Cowabunga.

Of course, I say all this with a February 2022 mindset. For all we know, this could be a major butterfly effect game in NFL history. One that either kicks off a new dynasty in Cincinnati with Joe Burrow taking his crack at being the new LOAT, or a Los Angeles win could be the impetus for contending teams to start ditching draft picks and long-term success plans for the thrill of going all in by acquiring big-name free agents to “buy” a championship.

Just like the 2007-08 Boston Celtics weren’t the first super team in NBA history, the 2021 Rams aren’t the first attempt at a super team in the NFL. Hell, this is basically 2020 Tampa Bay on repeat, even including the part where they get to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium. Unlike these Rams, the Buccaneers had plenty of high draft picks they drafted, but it is true that all three players to score a touchdown in Super Bowl LV were brought in last year to help the key acquisition of Tom Brady (Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown, and Leonard Fournette). These Rams do however have some drafted studs in Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp. But their attempt at going all in was based on bringing in Matthew Stafford, Von Miller, and Odell Beckham Jr. The Beckham trade even happened a day before wide receiver Robert Woods tore his ACL in practice. Donald and Kupp withstanding, the Rams largely outsourced their roster. The Bengals are mostly home grown on offense and spent peanuts to revamp their defense, which is playing over its head right now to get to this point.

If you’re a team-building purist, you’re definitely going to favor the Bengals’ traditional approach to the Rams taking a team that’s been winning for four years, but needed a few upgrades to get over the hump and win it all. Maybe setting a path to go seven years without drafting a player with a first-round pick is never going to be the standard plan of the future, but if the Rams pull this off, don’t be surprised if quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson start to leverage their talent and force their way onto the next super team. If the 49ers didn’t spend so many resources to get Trey Lance, I would say Rodgers to San Francisco in 2022 was a mortal lock.

Those 2008 Celtics had a profound impact on the NBA, showing LeBron James that he needed to leave Cleveland and form his own super team in Miami if he wanted to win a ring. He did, and then he left for Cleveland to do the same thing with new players. But after coming back from a 3-1 deficit against the Warriors, LeBron saw that two can play this game. Kevin Durant took his talents to Golden State, and this would have been an even stronger dynasty if not for injuries. Now everyone wants a “big three” in the NBA, and superstar team-ups are as common as ever.

But you can’t buy health. After a record number of All-Star players were injured in last season’s NBA playoffs, we got an unexpected Finals between the Suns and Bucks. In a way, this Rams-Bengals matchup feels a little similar to that in that it was so unexpected. With both teams finishing fourth in their conference, this is the first Super Bowl matchup ever without a top-three seed.

It may be the last we see too if the era of super teams is upon us. It also may be the end of an era where quarterbacks stay many years in one place, especially after seeing zero Super Bowl appearances in the last 11 seasons for Drew Brees in New Orleans (2010-20), Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh (2011-21), and Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay (2011-21). When mainstream NFL media is still largely driven by telling quarterbacks their greatness is measured by their ring count, isn’t the next logical move for these quarterbacks to start leaving their teams for places that give them better opportunities to win championships?

While you’d love to pencil in Josh Allen as Buffalo’s quarterback for the next 10 years, what if things go sour with the loss of Brian Daboll? What if the next few Buffalo postseasons are also defined by games where the defense was destroyed or the Buffalo weather was so windy (a la the Patriots game on MNF) that Allen couldn’t get the job done? When Allen is still searching for that first Super Bowl appearance in his seventh or eighth season, wouldn’t a trade to a team with a few studs and maybe a roof on the stadium be an attractive option for him?

Even Mahomes is no lock to be a Chief for life. Within five years, Mahomes will almost surely experience the retirements of Andy Reid and Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill should lose a step in his early 30s. If he is still stuck on one ring by that time, is a Kansas City rebuild the best thing for him?

If Matthew Stafford, Mr. 8-68 Against Winning Teams Before 2021, can leave the Lions and instantly win a Super Bowl, why can’t any other top 12 quarterback do the same? It almost makes you want to root for the Bengals just to show that hitting draft picks and giving a coaching staff time to develop can still work. Now not many teams are going to get top five draft picks to land Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, but the Bengals kept the same head coach — the one I said you couldn’t pick out of a lineup of Costco cashiers — and the same two coordinators from 2019-20 when the team was 6-25-1. They didn’t hire a new Bill Walsh or Bill Belichick by accident. They beat the Chiefs by going to a three-man rush. Not exactly revolutionizing the game.

On the other hand, these Bengals are already confident as hell. A win could only empower them to get even cockier, and the thought of Cincinnati replacing New England as the most annoying fanbase on the internet isn’t something I’m looking forward to even if they deserve a run for enduring decades of bad football.

So, like I said, I don’t have a strong preference for who should win this game, but the long-term effects it has on the league remain to be seen. They could be huge. Remember, a Joe Flacco Super Bowl run made it to where you have to pay at least $1 million per start for your quarterback even if he isn’t that great. It’s more like $2 million per start now.

Of course, after Super Bowl 47, Flacco won one more playoff game and Colin Kaepernick was blackballed out of the league before Sean McVay’s contact list became the most sought after item in the NFL coach hiring process.

This league moves in fast and sometimes mysterious ways, but either way, we are entering a new era in the NFL.

I have done five companion pieces on BMR to preview this game in great detail already. My general theme has been that the Rams are the more talented team, have been the better team all year, and they should win this game in their home stadium as the Bengals are statistically one of the weakest teams to ever reach a Super Bowl. While both teams boast a No. 1 pick at QB and a superstar wide receiver having a historic year, the defenses causing havoc with pressure and turnovers in the playoffs is the main reason these teams are here. Which defense makes the big splash plays to win this one? Is an upset possible? Hell yes, and it wouldn’t even be the biggest upset of the Rams in the Super Bowl this century.

Why Rams Can Beat Bengals – “If football games are won in the trenches and defense wins championships, then this game should largely be decided by how Cincinnati’s offensive line handles the pass rush of the Rams. The Bengals were 5-3 to start the season, 5-3 in the second half of the season, rested starters in Week 18, and have won three one-score games in the postseason that came down to the final snap. No team in NFL history has won four playoff games by fewer than eight points, and the Rams’ only loss since December was in overtime after blowing a 17-point lead.” I also look at Cooper Kupp’s historic season and how Stafford has had a better season than Burrow.

Why Bengals Can Beat Rams – “If Burrow really is the next chosen one, in the first game since Brady’s official retirement no less, then the Bengals are going to get a pick-six off Stafford, and McPherson is going to break a tie with a 48-yard field goal on the final play to beat the Rams just like Brady and the Patriots did 20 years ago to start a dynasty. After all, it’s the Year of the Tiger and everything is a sequel or reboot these days.” The headline after this game very well could be that “sacks hurt less than interceptions” if Burrow is taking sacks and Stafford is throwing crucial picks.

Rams Offense vs. Bengals Defense – “Again, all five teams to beat the Rams this year did three things: scored more than 24 points, held Stafford’s offense under 300 net passing yards, and forced multiple turnovers.” Both of these teams were 1-5 when allowing more than 24 points this season. The Bengals had the No. 1 scoring defense (17.6 PPG) in road games this year and intercepted 3.58% of passes on the road compared to 1.58% at home. Cooper Kupp is going to dominate, but this really is the wild card matchup in this game. If the Bengals can get picks, they should win, and you know Stafford is always going to leave some opportunities out there.

Bengals Offense vs. Rams Defense – “The wild card in this game is what Cincinnati’s opportunistic defense can do against Matthew Stafford and the talented Los Angeles offense. But the biggest mismatch on paper that could easily dictate the outcome is the inadequate Cincinnati offensive line against the Rams’ defensive front, led by future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald.” If the Bengals can hold up, they are arguably the most talented offense the Rams have faced this year. But Burrow has to get rid of the ball quickly or this could get ugly.

Super Bowl Game Pick and Prediction – Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS as a road underdog this season and 6-0 ATS in the last six games Burrow started. In this piece I ask the most pressing question: which defense creates the splash plays to win what should be a close, lower-scoring game? Sacks or interceptions? No quarterbacks had more of them this year than these two. I also look at officiating notes on Ron Torbert, how the Rams had a league-low 4 DPI penalties in 20 games, some comparisons on DVOA for Super Bowl teams, and how Cincinnati’s third-quarter dominance could set up a game script of the Bengals coming back to win another close one.

The Prediction

The moment of truth. The first article I wrote was why the Rams could win, then I did why the Bengals could win. If you compare those reasons, I think it’s obvious that I think the Rams should win. But then I started digging more, and after seeing how the Bengals play their best defense in the third quarter and on the road, and how I know Stafford is a guy who could throw a couple picks in any game, I started feeling the Bengals more.

The last four teams favored by more than 3.5 points lost the Super Bowl outright. I think Rams -2.5 is a lot more attractive line for them than Rams -4, which likely means winning by 7+ if you don’t want a push. But look at these teams’ games this season. They’re rarely blowing anyone out, at least not anyone good. I really believe it’s going to be a close game, like 16 of the last 18 Super Bowls have been in the fourth quarter.

Can Donald and Von turn this game into a rout by blowing up that offensive line? Of course. Football has shown us that many times over. But as I wrote in an old Super Bowl preview about Mahomes and the Chiefs being different, I mentioned Joe Burrow (+Chase) and LSU were different too. I remember Burrow starting shaky in the national championship game against Clemson’s top-ranked defense. Then he destroyed them. I don’t think this is a game where he’s throwing for 450+, but I don’t think he has to either. He just has to avoid the game-changing turnovers and hope (or will if he is the new fvcking Brady) his defense forces Stafford into those.

I think the Bengals are going to win the turnover battle, Kupp is going to play the Ricky Proehl part and score a game-tying touchdown late, and Burrow is going to set Evan McPherson up for a 48-yard game-winning field goal that somehow takes seven seconds off the clock.

It’s Super Bowl 36 (STL-NE) all over again as Burrow joins Brady as the only quarterbacks in NFL history to win four straight playoff games (their first four too) by fewer than eight points.

Okay, I am starting to find my rooting interest after all…

Final: Bengals, 23 Rams 20 (MVP: Joe Burrow even though Mike Hilton will have a pick-six)

NFL Stat Oddity: Championship Sunday

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

Two rematches. Two painfully familiar postseason outcomes for the teams on the losing side.

For the first time in 56 seasons of the Super Bowl era, we will have a Super Bowl without a team that seeded higher than fourth. The Rams and Bengals were both No. 4 seeds that spent very little time – if any in Cincinnati’s case – in the spotlight as the teams to beat this year.

But now they are all that’s left after erasing double-digit deficits in the second half. For Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid, this is becoming old hat.

Of the five blown leads of 18-plus points in the NFL playoffs since 2013, Reid’s Chiefs have lost three of them and were the winning team in a fourth game against Houston (down 24-0 in 2019). The only other such game was of course Super Bowl LI, where as offensive coordinator of the Falcons, Shanahan infamously called doomed passes with a big lead in the fourth quarter. It has started a string of three postseasons where Shanahan’s teams have been bounced after leading by double digits in the fourth quarter and never scoring again.

This sets up a Super Bowl between two quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall by the Lions and Bengals (11 years apart). It may be the last outcome I wanted to see out of the four possibilities, but if this is what the post-Tom Brady NFL is going to look like, I’m sure I will learn to love it.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Bengals at Chiefs: Whoops, They Did It Again

It was the best of halves, it was the worst of halves, it was the age of adjustment, it was the age of sloppiness, it was the season of defensive regression, it was the season of tipped giveaways, it was 13 seconds to restore hope, and it’s now another winter of despair for this failed attempt at a dynasty.

Even Charles Dickens knew he had to write different beginnings and endings to his books no matter how successful they were in the past. The Kansas City Chiefs continue to tease us with many wonderful things, but only one time (2019) did things end on a positive note.

If it wasn’t for Jet Chip Wasp on third-and-15 in Super Bowl LIV, we would be calling the Chiefs the biggest underachievers and disappointment in the NFL in the last decade.

They still might be even with that play.

As the favorite in the final four this year, the Chiefs just had to hold onto a 21-3 lead to become the fourth team to go to three straight Super Bowls. Instead, they became the fourth team in NFL playoff history to blow an 18-point lead at home and the first to do it in a championship game. In the process, the Bengals are the first team in NFL history to beat an opponent twice in the same season after trailing by double digits at halftime. The 18-point blown lead is the largest of the Patrick Mahomes era, and the Bengals own a tie for the second largest at 14 points in Week 17.

Why does this keep happening under Andy Reid? It’s his third playoff loss in nine seasons where the Chiefs led by at least 18 points. Since 2013, Reid has coached the Chiefs to a league-high nine different win streaks of at least five games, including an eight-game streak this season that again had people believing this was the team to beat.

But look at how things have gone for Kansas City under Reid:

  • 2013: 9-0 start built up by playing backup quarterbacks, but swept by Peyton Manning’s Broncos to lose division, and blew a 38-10 lead in the wild card round in Indianapolis.
  • 2014: thought to have ended the Patriots’ dynasty and also beat the Seahawks, the NFC’s Super Bowl team that year, but finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs.
  • 2015: took another suspicious 11-game winning streak into New England and took what felt like 11 minutes to score one late touchdown in a 27-20 loss in the divisional round.
  • 2016: came back to beat the Chargers, outdueled Drew Brees and Andrew Luck, scored 30 on Denver’s defense, beat MVP Matt Ryan on a pick-two, and still lost the first playoff game at home to six Pittsburgh field goals.
  • 2017: 5-0 start with a great win on opening night in New England but finished 10-6 and blew a 21-3 halftime lead at home to Marcus Mariota and the Titans in the Forward Progress Game in the wild card round.
  • 2018: Mahomes is the MVP, but lost 43-40 in New England, 54-51 to the Rams, and still ended up as the No. 1 seed thanks to a Miami miracle against the Patriots. But lost 37-31 in overtime at home to those Patriots after Dee Ford lined up offsides and negated a game-ending interception. Never touched the ball in overtime.
  • 2019: trailed by double digits in every playoff game before winning each game by double digits. Apparently, the right combo of opponents involves Bill O’Brien, Playoff Ryan Tannehill, and Playoff Jimmy Garoppolo. Still needed a 10-point fourth-quarter comeback to win the Super Bowl.
  • 2020: the hottest team in the league, but also a record winning streak of seven games by fewer than seven points. Kept it up in playoffs but lost offensive tackles for the Super Bowl and failed to score a touchdown in rematch with Tampa Bay. Dominated 31-9 by a play-action offense and two-high safety defense.
  • 2021: ugly 3-4 start before the defense turned things around thanks to the schedule. Offense started clicking again late in year, but defense regressed to early struggles. Very fortunate to win coin toss and march for a touchdown against the Chargers and Bills; the latter being 13 seconds away from knocking the Chiefs out in the divisional round. Fell apart after 21-3 lead on Sunday.

Like I said, this team teases us with wonderful things, then they shit the bed when it matters most. The one time they didn’t blow it, they were fortunate to be playing Kyle Shanahan, but scroll down for more on his chokejobs.

A team with Alex Smith at quarterback being exposed as fool’s gold is one thing, but expectations have been much higher with Mahomes the last four years. For 10-plus quarters this postseason, it wasn’t hard to see why. He was putting together a case for the best postseason run ever by a quarterback. Then he had arguably the worst half of his career.

It really was a tale of two halves similar to what happened in Week 17 when the Chiefs scored four straight touchdowns, led by 14 points, then were held to a field goal in the second half before losing by a field goal on the final snap. But the Bengals hit up the Chiefs with big YAC plays that day and controlled the clock at the end. Mahomes wasn’t inept in the second half like he was in this one. It was a different game with a similar outcome.

Mahomes was close to perfect in this first half. He hit 13 of his first 14 passes and the Chiefs scored three straight touchdowns to take a 21-3 lead. If you wanted the easy, short throws, he took them. The running game looked good with the backs fighting hard for extra yards. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce were heavily involved unlike they were in Week 17. It looked like an unstoppable offense while the Bengals looked unprepared for a big game.

But then a screen pass broke for the Bengals for a late 41-yard touchdown. The Chiefs were driving for another touchdown after getting a defensive pass interference flag, in a game where the refs really swallowed their whistles for both sides all day, that put the ball at the 1-yard line with 9 seconds left.

This is where the Chiefs basically lost the game. You get two quick throws into the end zone in that spot. The Chiefs should have had another timeout, but they wasted one early in the game before challenging a bad spot that should have been an easy first down for them. That didn’t help. But you have to know the clock situation and where the ball must go. One pass didn’t work, and it was risky to try another with five seconds. With the Chiefs getting the ball to start the third quarter, I would have been fine with a field goal and 24-10 lead.

Reid listened to Mahomes, and I’m not sure why everyone didn’t know the throw had to be quick and into the end zone. It was in the flat to Hill, and he danced around for no gain and the half ended. That pass never should have been thrown.

That failure really seemed to put the Chiefs in a funk. They were stopped on their first five drives in the second half, something you practically never see happen to this offense. They got away from the run. They got away from throwing to Kelce and Hill. Mahomes was not forcing deep throws, but his passes were just off and going to the wrong guys. A couple big sacks on third down in the fourth quarter also happened.

This was a mess of a half where the Bengals just hung in there with their game plan, even when it seemed nonsensical. Cincinnati continuously ran the ball on first down, setting up countless second-and-9 situations, which usually led to a short completion and tough third down situation. It made no sense why they did not attack more after throwing for more than 400 yards last time. Why not some play-action shots on first down? Ja’Marr Chase was held to 54 yards, a big drop of 212 yards from his 266-yard effort in Week 17. But Tee Higgins had 103 yards this time, even if his 44-yard grab, tied for the longest gain in the game, resulted in no points after the Bengals went right back to being conservative.

But after getting a field goal to make it 21-13, the Bengals got the first turnover in nearly six quarters of action between these teams this season. Mahomes tried to set up a short throw and threw it to a defensive lineman, who tipped it to himself for an interception at the Kansas City 27. The Bengals used that short field to drive for a game-tying touchdown (to Chase) and two-point conversion to end the third quarter.

You could see the tide turned when Joe Burrow threw an interception at midfield early in the fourth quarter, but the Chiefs went three-and-out with Mahomes taking his second third-down sack in two minutes.

Why did it look like Mahomes was constantly running around in the second half to no avail? The Bengals changed things up and kept dropping eight defenders into coverage. According to Next Gen Stats, they did it a season-high 35% of the time, increasing it from 24% of passes in the first half to 45% in the second half. It was very effective.

Like with Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl, this will be all the rage as the new blueprint to stop the Chiefs going into 2022. They’ll just have to figure it out because they did not have the answers on Sunday.

While Mahomes was taking fourth-quarter sacks, Burrow was very close to throwing consecutive interceptions. On a simple throw away, he for some reason threw a pass right to a diving defender, who dropped the ball. He would have been in bounds for the pick, stopping Cincinnati’s go-ahead drive after two plays. But Burrow took that gift and made perhaps his best play of the game with a 7-yard scramble for a first down on third-and-6. Three plays later, he was just as good with an 11-yard run to convert a third-and-7. We usually don’t see Burrow avoid sacks like that, but he only went down once in this game and had multiple good scrambles.

Rookie kicker Evan McPherson continued his perfect postseason with a clutch 52-yard field goal to take a 24-21 lead with 6:04 left. CBS’ Tony Romo kept talking about Burrow never getting the ball back, and I thought he was insane. Does he not see how this offense has been playing this half? Does he not realize the Bengals have three clock stoppages left?

And yet, it worked out to where Romo could have been right. But playing cute with the clock actually ended up costing the Chiefs in the end. Mahomes calmed down and found open receivers to move into field goal range quickly, but the Chiefs really made things hard after the two-minute warning. Mahomes was scrambling for his life and going out of bounds to stop the clock multiple times for meager gains. It was getting ridiculous like this:

Remember when Mahomes ran for 497 yards before passing/getting sacked in the Super Bowl? It was the highest game in the last five seasons, only topping Mahomes’ 495 yards in the 40-32 loss to Vegas. I would love to see if he broke 500 yards in this game.

But the Chiefs still had a first-and-goal at the Cincinnati 5 with 1:30 left in a 24-21 game. I can understand wanting to try a run and force the Bengals to call their last timeout. I don’t understand how anyone could advocate for letting the Chiefs score. You only do that if they’re able to kick a game-winning field goal with no time left. This wasn’t that.

But this is something that pisses me off about today’s NFL. Why should the offense be penalized for doing its job and scoring a touchdown? “They left too much time” is such a bullshit cop-out to let a defense off the hook for not doing its job. Don’t give up a touchdown. I don’t care if they have 20 seconds or 120 seconds left, don’t give up a touchdown. Do your job. The offense just did.

This is why I would have preferred to see the ball in Mahomes’ hands instead of a run for 1 yard by Jerick McKinnon. I want to maximize my touchdown probability, especially in a 3-point game against an offense that is struggling to score touchdowns now.

But on second down, Mahomes again ran around too much before taking a 5-yard sack. Not good. The clock was down to 39 seconds, but the ball was now at the 9 on third down. This would take an amazing throw like Mahomes had to open the game with a touchdown to Hill, but you have to be careful about forcing it and getting a tipped pick. We’ve seen it so many times with the Chiefs this season, including in the red zone.

So, Mahomes had to be smart. He wasn’t. He took too long again, Sam Hubbard sacked him again, and this time there was a fumble that the Chiefs were lucky to recover, or the season would be over. What a near disaster, and yes, this would be a season-ending turnover that the QB got away with for those keeping count. It made the field goal 17 yards harder, but Harrison Butker did his job and nailed it from 44 yards to force overtime. Good on the kickers this week.

After the Chiefs won the coin toss, you had to think the football gods aren’t going to let them do this three times since Week 15. Based on what I saw in the second half, I knew this wasn’t going to end well.

But it went worse than expected. For starters, why is he throwing to Demarcus Robinson twice in overtime after Robinson had one target with zero catches all day? Robinson wasn’t looking for the second-down throw and it nearly ended up in a pick-six by Eli Apple. A Hasselbeck, if you will. But for some #BallDontLie, the third-and-10 throw was deep for Hill, the pass was in the right location for his hands, but the defender made a great play too on the ball, and it was tipped to Von Bell for an interception. The Bengals were already at their own 45 and the ending felt inevitable at that point.

It is fitting that this team’s season would end after a big blown lead and tipped interception. It’s what plagued them during the 3-4 start. The Bengals came back from 14 down three times in Week 17 too. It was going to catch up with them eventually. The Chiefs were simply too sloppy this season to deserve to go back to the Super Bowl.

Joe Mixon had some strong runs to put the Bengals in chip-shot range. McPherson wasn’t going to miss a 31-yard field goal. He didn’t, and the Bengals are off to their third Super Bowl with a 27-24 win, the biggest road win in franchise history. Zach Taylor has as many playoff wins this year as Mike Tomlin (two) and John Harbaugh (one) have combined since 2016. You might actually be able to pick him out of a lineup of generic white men now.

Everyone knows Burrow and Chase now after this breakout season, but it really has been clutch kicking and clutch defense with incredibly timely and pivotal takeaways that have keyed this run to the Super Bowl for the Bengals.

This is the third game in a row where the Bengals have intercepted a quarterback in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime in a close game. This is something that has only happened 20 times in the playoffs since 2001, and the Bengals have done it three weeks in a row to Derek Carr (fourth-down pick at the goal line), Ryan Tannehill (third-down pick at midfield in a tied game), and now Mahomes in overtime to set up a game-winning drive.

The only other defenses to have two such plays in the same postseason are the 2007 Giants (Tony Romo and Brett Favre in back-to-back weeks) and 2010 Packers (Michael Vick in Philadelphia and Caleb Hanie two games later in Chicago).

Not even Tom Brady, the LOAT, has ever willed his defense to do this three times in his lengthy playoff career. Sure, he’s benefitted twice, including the most crucial interception in NFL history by Malcolm Butler, but you’d be hard pressed to find a team with big picks like this three weeks in a row.

Now the Bengals get their third chance to win their first Super Bowl. Maybe it’s the first of numerous chances for Burrow and company. Maybe it’s the best chance they ever see. Maybe it’s the start of the NFL’s next dynasty, and it happened on Kansas City’s field where the next dynasty was supposed to be.

We won’t know those things for some years, but as I hammered on this offseason, chances like Super Bowl 55 cannot be taken for granted. When you lose a game like that 31-9 instead of repeating, you never know if you’ll ever get back to the Super Bowl.

Ask Dan Marino and Don Shula.

Ask Brett Favre and Mike Holmgren.

Ask Kurt Warner and the Rams.

Ask Drew Brees and Sean Payton in New Orleans.

Ask the Steelers/Ben Roethlisberger and Packers/Aaron Rodgers after Super Bowl 45, which was 11 years ago.

Ask Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll in Seattle.

That little grace period in the AFC where Tom Brady had to move on from New England, Big Ben’s clock stopped ticking in Pittsburgh, Andrew Luck retired, Deshaun Watson ruined his career, Josh Allen had to improve dramatically, and Burrow was just a rookie? That time is over. The AFC has caught up to the Chiefs, and this is before we find out how high the ceiling is for Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence, if Justin Herbert can get a defense in Los Angeles, and if Rodgers or Wilson want to join the conference.

You could be thrilled that the team is always competitive and will have a chance every year with Mahomes, and there is nothing wrong with that. But any dynasty talk? Kill that noise now. Scoffing at the thought of only winning two or three titles like you’re Jim Irsay? Have you seen the last nine seasons for the Chiefs? Did you ever watch a Kansas City playoff game from 1970-2010? Be happy with the one ring and hopeful there’s ever a second. The NFL is a con when it comes to making sure great quarterbacks walk away with Super Bowl titles.

We just watched a coach in his 23rd season get tripped up by two of his career bugaboos: managing the clock and neglecting the run even against a three-man rush. He lost to a coach who ran the ball 17 times on first-and-10 and roped-a-dope his way to a win. Like many of us, Reid has fallen in love with his superstar quarterback and expects him to be Superman at all times. Except the NFL playoffs are kryptonite to teams relying on the quarterback this much.

After halftime, the Chiefs got Clark Kent. Maybe on Earth-Two, Frank Clark gets a strip-sack on the most sacked QB in the NFL. But in our reality, the clips of Mahomes taking those sacks and throwing that pick in overtime are going to be played more than the brilliant ending last week against Buffalo.

Kick the field goal before halftime. Take the boring throwaway instead of the ridiculous sack. Not every situation requires a hero. Burrow just won two road playoff games by being pretty boring. Christ, he really might be the new Brady. Kansas City’s defense was not playing poorly enough to justify so much hero ball. Mahomes will learn this eventually, but he better hope it doesn’t happen after kickstarting a Cincinnati dynasty by playing one of the worst halves of his career.

I’ll end with an unmodified Dickens quote, because this must be what it feels like to love the Chiefs and not have them love you back.

I loved her against reason, against promise, against peace, against hope, against happiness, against all discouragement that could be.

49ers at Rams: Gut-Check Win for Stafford, McVay

Losing six games in a row to one rival is a big deal, but there is no better way to avenge it than with a playoff win that puts you in the Super Bowl. We had not really seen anything like it since the 2001-04 Colts lost all six games to the Patriots to kick off a rivalry between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. The Colts finally won a game in 2005, followed it up with another road win in 2006, but didn’t truly slay the dragon until they came back from a 21-3 deficit in the 2006 AFC Championship Game and went on to win the Super Bowl.

49ers-Rams is less of a big deal than that, and the Rams have folded time after time to the 49ers in a variety of ways. But no matchup was bigger than this one, and the Rams did not have Matthew Stafford, Odell Beckham, and Von Miller for all six of those losses. Head coaches Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan come from similar backgrounds with time spent in Tampa Bay with Jon Gruden and time together in Washington under Kyle’s famous dad. This game was to decide which one would be making their second Super Bowl appearance in the last four seasons.

The Rams had a clear advantage at quarterback with Matthew Stafford, but that did not pay enough dividends in the first two upsets by the 49ers this year. On Sunday, it looked bleak through three quarters with the 49ers leading 17-7 and the Rams having one of those classic “finesse team getting bullied by the physical team in the playoffs” type of performances. Jimmy Garoppolo even threw for 200 yards before the fourth quarter of a playoff game for the first time in his career. Little was going right for the Rams, which is why the comeback was such a gut-check and hallmark victory for McVay and Stafford.

It was ugly early. Stafford threw a red-zone pick on a tipped ball on a third down where the 49ers actually covered Cooper Kupp tightly like they should have been doing as much as possible. Make the other players beat you, and the Rams lost tight end Tyler Higbee to injury early in this one. Kupp was a monster on third down the rest of the game, catching 11-of-14 targets for 142 yards and two touchdowns (both on third down). If the MVP award included the playoffs, Kupp would run away with it this season.

Deebo Samuel also had a hell of a year and showed again his incredible strength on a 44-yard touchdown on a screen that was all him. Ben Skowronek dropped a 38-yard touchdown on his only target of the game. Following that, Matt Gay missed a 54-yard field goal for the Rams before the 49ers made their kick to take a 10-7 lead into the locker room, a half that certainly favors San Francisco’s style of play.

If you know me well, you know I’m not a big fan of the “genius” label that gets attached to McVay and Shanahan. I think both are good coaches, but they are far from flawless, and their game management leaves a lot to be desired. This second half was a perfect example of their shortcomings, and they should be glad they were coaching against each other. Someone had to win.

First, the Rams tried a pass on a third-and-1 at the San Francisco 43 in the middle of the third quarter. If you know you’re going for it, as you should there, just run the ball. Run it twice if you have to. Instead, Stafford threw a pass away after not liking what he saw, and the Rams tried to sneak him on fourth down. His sneaks, even when they worked, have looked awful this postseason. He also seemed to be banged up during this game. Sure enough, he was short again and it wasn’t even that close on replay. But McVay wasted a challenge and precious timeout on the play.

The 49ers seemed to deliver a huge blow with a 58-yard touchdown drive to take a 17-7 lead. Jauan Jennings fought for extra yards on a key third-and-10 to convert it. I guess everyone in San Francisco is just amazing with YAC.

Skowronek drop aside, Garoppolo was pretty much outplaying Stafford, or at least playing up to his level in the game. Stafford was going to have to have the biggest fourth-quarter comeback of his career against a good opponent. Remember, Stafford was just 4-35 (.103) at game-winning drive opportunities against teams with a winning record.

Stafford was 0-28 in his career when trailing by double-digits to start the fourth quarter against teams with winning records. That included an 0-4 record this season with the Rams. But the Rams were already at the San Francisco 20 to start the fourth quarter after a great play call to the backup tight end popped for 20 yards. McVay had to burn his second timeout with 20 seconds left in the quarter to call it on first down, but the play was a great one.

On a third-and-1, Stafford was in empty and threw an 11-yard touchdown to Kupp with 13:30 left. Again, how do you not double team the best receiver on the field? Odell Beckham had a very good 100-yard game, but I’d sooner take my chances with him beating me than leaving the most dominant receiver in the game in single coverage.

The 49ers could have stopped the bleeding, but once again, they failed to score any points with the lead under Shanahan. I’d be very worried that he is just never going to understand when to go aggressive vs. conservative. If you’re leading by 16 points in the fourth quarter, you can be conservative. If you’re only up three points and you’re the underdog, you need to take some chances. He has failed both situations in his career.

The 49ers may have botched their season when they faced a third-and-2 at the LA 45 and called a run for fullback Kyle Juszczyk with big, injured tackle Trent Williams in motion. It’s a cutesy play that did not work. McVay even thought the 49ers fumbled the ball, so he wasted his third challenge and was out of timeouts with 10 minutes to go. But the real sin here was giving the ball to maybe your sixth-best ball carrier in this offense? No disrespect to Juszczyk. He’s one of the finest in a dying breed of a position, but I’m giving the ball to Deebo or George Kittle or Brandon Aiyuk or Elijah Mitchell or maybe Jennings again.

The vaunted rushing attack for Shanahan’s offense? It produced 19 carries for 46 yards without a run longer than 9 yards. It looks like the Rams learned from the regular season and made an adjustment.

Still, the 49ers could have overcome the bad play with a fourth-and-2 conversion. But from early in the play clock, it was evident that they were just trying to draw the Rams offsides and never intended to snap the ball before taking a delay of game and punting. What a shame. The 49ers had as many delay of game penalties in the fourth quarter (two) as they had in the entire 2021 regular season, which is something they also did in the Dallas wild card win.

By the way, if there are two areas where the NFL should make use of modern technology and improve the game, it would be a light/sound system for delay of game and better spotting of the ball. It’s absurd how many times teams are getting away with snapping the ball after the clock hits zero, and the spots are sometimes so bad you wonder if the game is being fixed. If this led to more delay of game penalties, then so be it. It shouldn’t take 40 seconds to get a play ready.

Anyways, that punt was cowardly. Stafford must have let some of the LOAT rub off on him last week after nearly starting the next drive with a terrible interception, but Jaquiski Tartt dropped the deep ball pick with 9:47 left. Not a game ender, but it mattered. Stafford found Beckham for 29 yards on the next play, the Rams’ longest play of the night, and the drive ended with a game-tying field goal with 6:49 left.

Stafford was under siege by the 49ers in Week 18. Things didn’t feel that bad in this game, but apparently, they were. Next Gen Stats had it as his highest-pressure rate in a game for Stafford this season.

But this was a great chance for the 49ers to take advantage of McVay’s terrible clock management and drive into game-winning field goal range with no time left. But it was a brutal three-and-out with Garoppolo throwing three incompletions and the 49ers struggling to even beat the play clock multiple times. Stafford found Kupp for another big 25-yard gain on a third down, and only a sack at the two-minute warning stalled the drive to a field goal attempt. Gay was good from 30 yards out with 1:46 left.

Garoppolo certainly overcame longer odds in Week 18, needing a touchdown in similar time. Just a field goal would be fine here, but my did we get the worst of him in this offense with the season on the line. After a wild throw and a checkdown lost 3 yards, it was quickly third-and-13. With Aaron Donald in chase, Garoppolo tried to avoid a sack and just threw a pass up that was eventually tipped to the Rams for a game-ending interception with 1:09 left. Just nine more seconds and it’d be on the list I posted above.

Incredibly, or maybe sadly, this is still in the running for Garoppolo’s best playoff start out of his six. You could say his two best games were the two he lost. But after the way this one ended, it will begin the Trey Lance era in San Francisco. The 49ers invested way too much in him to not go that route next season. Garoppolo will have to catch on somewhere else as this should end the five-season run for him and Shanahan together in San Francisco. There will be more pressure on Shanahan to get things right with Lance, since he’s been given a pass for Garoppolo’s durability and limitations. If the 49ers are still blowing winnable big games with Lance, then we know the problem all along starts at the coach.

Now McVay is the one who looks to cap off this five-year journey with the Rams with a Super Bowl win as a favorite against the Bengals. He would join an impressive list of coaches who also took that five-year journey to their first ring: Mike Holmgren (1992-96 Packers), Tony Dungy (2002-06 Colts), Mike McCarthy (2006-10 Packers), and John Harbaugh (2008-12 Ravens). Holmgren is the only one on that list who won it with his best team, and while the Rams had better stats and record in 2018, this team is in better position to win in two weeks than that team was.

Sometimes that’s what matters most. Just keep making the playoffs and hope things fall into place for three or four weeks. The Rams took an aggressive approach to build this team and they are where they wanted to be. The quarterback who was 8-68 against teams with winning records can notch a seventh such win this season in two weeks. Maybe even make himself a case for a gold jacket one day as he can join John Elway as the only quarterbacks to win their first championship more than a dozen seasons into their careers.

This is what the Lions drafted Stafford to do. This is what we’ve been told McVay can do for a team. Now together, McVay and Stafford can finish this thing off in their home stadium in Year 1.

Next two weeks: Well, go figure. We get what I said days ago was the least attractive option of the four.

Watching the 49ers play on Sunday, maybe it’s the second or third-best outcome after all. All I know is the Rams better score more than three points this time. The Bengals better figure out how to get in the end zone more often. A third dud Super Bowl in four years would be a letdown.