2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 8

NFL Stat Oddity 2026

Week 8 felt like a major shift in the 2026 NFL picture. The Vikings finally lost a game, Andy Reid royally blew a game in Denver, the Steelers took down Deshaun Watson eight times without his consent, and the Ravens’ season may be over after another major injury for Lamar Jackson.

We had eight games with a comeback opportunity, and we watched five more teams blow a double-digit lead. That brings the season total to 25, halfway to the 2022 record of 50 such games.

And yeah, Joe Burrow won an NFL game for the first time ever after trailing in the last 2:00. Only took a game against the 1-win Titans (+12.5) to do it, but that’s why you have to put things in context.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Broncos: Game of the Week

We haven’t had a lot of big AFC games yet this season, but this one may have been the most pivotal result through Week 8. The Chiefs had a chance to complete the sweep of Denver, last year’s No. 1 seed, but blew a 24-13 lead in the fourth quarter. The Broncos (6-2) take over first place in the AFC West, and there’s a chance they don’t relinquish it given the remaining schedules for both teams.

The Chiefs went from about a 65.5% chance to win the AFC West before this game to 46.5% after losing it. More than anyone, this loss was on coach Andy Reid after the 68-year-old ran through his greatest hits of game mismanagement and career-long blind spots. Sean Payton and his staff ate up Reid and his staff in this one.

Short-yardage Woes: You can start with the dichotomy that decided the game at the goal line. Sean Payton’s offense was able to scheme open two wide-open touchdown passes on fourth-and-goal. Meanwhile, the Chiefs had three cracks from the 1-yard line in a 28-24 game and couldn’t come up with the right call or strategy to score. They even brought out “Corn Dog” from their Super Bowl wins and the Broncos were all over it. After Mahomes had the game-winning touchdown pass to Rice, it didn’t count because Jaylon Moore had a false start (little flinch). Reid refuses to run a QB sneak package because of a freak injury to Mahomes in Denver in 2019 (dislocated kneecap), and it continues to hurt the Chiefs to this day.

Put Noah Gray in the Tush Push formation as teams do with their tight ends, including the Steelers who scored on a touchdown before halftime with Pat Freiermuth. Put Justin Fields in the game and run him. What else are you paying him for? Or just man up and let Mahomes sneak it. It’s gotten silly to the point where it could cost the Chiefs another Super Bowl run.

Gadget Guys: Sean Payton was pressed for not using Marvin Mims more on offense this season. Mims had four touches for 29 yards in this one, including a nice 14-yard run on one of the fourth-quarter touchdown drives. Meanwhile, the Chiefs couldn’t get their gadget player, Xavier Worthy, going again. He had 13 yards on 6 targets and 3 catches. He ran out of bounds on the Corn Dog play the Chiefs used to score on years ago, not even giving Mahomes a target to throw to. He has no awareness for the field at all.

Rookie Training Wheels: The game was a good display for mid-round rookie backs on both sides with Emmett Johnson (143 yards from scrimmage) and Jonah Coleman (104 YFS) both scoring and both carrying the offense on the day. But the Broncos still relied on Coleman on the game-winning drive after his 51-yard catch and 5-yard touchdown run with 1:56 left.

But the Chiefs stuck with Kenneth Walker, who hasn’t had a good two weeks now, on their final drive. Johnson was clearly running hard all game, and going with a run at the 1 with him (they had a timeout) would have been a call the Broncos didn’t expect. With how great Johnson looked, I’m giving him a shot there as Walker has not been a good short-yardage back. He was stuffed at the 1 on second down.

Also, rookie wideout Cyrus Allen had two catches for 20 yards but may have had a long touchdown catch too if he didn’t stop early on a deep route. That seemed to penalize him for the rest of the game. He still outproduced Worthy, who the Chiefs just can’t seem to quit despite terrible production.

Reid needs to trust the rookies more, but he’s always had issues with teaching them to be prepared earlier in the season.

Conservative Big Red: Reid’s game management in the fourth quarter was as bad as you’ve ever seen in a game in the Mahomes era. It started right away with the Chiefs up 24-13 and facing a fourth-and-inches. There was confusion over the spot, but Reid could have challenged (it was close) and he could have gone for it. He decided to punt rather quickly, and the Broncos drove 80 yards for 8 points with relative ease.

If you did any honest study of your play and the way the Broncos thrive in the 4Q on offense, you’d know that was a worthwhile 4th-and-inches to go for. The fact that Reid continues to punt in these situations with Mahomes as his quarterback and trusts a defense that usually folds in the clutch just goes to show he is a dinosaur that doesn’t want to learn new things. It was a terrible punt decision.

But there was more. With 2:44 left, Kansas City faced a 3rd-and-2 at the Denver 30. Why not run the ball if you’re supposed to be this great running team now? A pass comes with the double risk of a sack or pick, and sure enough, the Broncos got their first sack of the game. Mahomes probably should have thrown it away, but the play call was terrible in that spot.

Then Reid decided to let Harrison Butker, the struggling kicker, try one from 54 yards out in the rain. Of course he missed it. The field goal to go up 6 is really the worst decision there between punting and going for it. Yet that’s the choice Reid made. Again, I don’t even blame Butker that much for this one. The Chiefs needed to treat this drive as touchdown or bust (or run out the clock) and they botched it.

The defense only needed two plays to give up the touchdown, so at least they were quick about it. The offense had plenty of time (1:48) after a good kick return by Johnson (what can’t he do?), but Reid’s poor clock management shined again. I actually think that good kick return might have been the worst outcome since it just made the Chiefs call worse plays by trying to work on the clock and score as late as possible instead of running the most optimal plays to score a touchdown.

In fact, that’s how Pete Carroll and the Seahawks lost Super Bowl 49. Same score too (28-24). Sure, you need to be aware of the clock and you don’t want to score a 50-yard touchdown right away. But you can’t slow-walk a touchdown and time it out perfectly. A field goal, yes, but not a touchdown. You take it when you can get it, and if you can’t defend a 3-point lead with 20, 30, 40 seconds left, then that’s your fault.

Once the Chiefs got to the 1, I’m calling for the QB sneak. Maybe twice if I have to. But we know that’s now what Reid does.

Stubborn Reid: Finally, it’s fitting this game ended with left guard Mike Caliendo getting beat and giving up a game-ending sack on 4th-and-goal. Caliendo was a surprise start for Kingsley Suamataia, who was benched by Reid for the second time this season. Once again, the matter is undisclosed, so your guess is good as mine. But by actively starting the worse guard who gave up as many pressures (5) in Denver as Kingsley has all year, Reid cost his quarterback and team a huge game. You can talk about accountability, but you lose a lot of credibility the week your team signs Justin Tucker. So, what’s really going on here?

I’ve picked the Chiefs to lose these last two weeks, and they showed you why both games. They weren’t even playing that well when they were 5-0, and teams like Seattle and Denver can exploit these mistakes and roster flaws. But Sunday could really send the team on a downward spiral if they’re not careful.

But as long as Reid is the coach, I don’t see anything changing. They need to move on after the season, probably from GM Veach too. Get a fresh start with young ambition and ideas as Reid has overstayed his welcome just like he did in Philadelphia. Thank him for the service and the wins, but the game has passed him by just like it did for Bill Belichick in New England. It’s the natural cycle of a coaching life. Reid will be 69 next season, and that’s not nice in this league.

Meanwhile, Denver continues to beat the odds. They had a record-tying eight game-winning drives last year, and they’re already 5-1 at GWD opportunities this season. Bo Nix has the most 4QC wins (13) through a quarterback’s first three seasons, and he’s already tied for the most through four seasons. He’s played 2.5 seasons.

NFL QB - Most 4th Quarter Comeback Wins by Year

Nix also has the most game-winning drives (16) through three seasons, and his record is 16-6 (.727) in these games. It’s insane, it should blow up in Denver’s faces eventually, but it hasn’t so far. Nix might prove to be the Eli//Flacco/Spygate-era Brady of his generation as he goes on a Super Bowl run this year.

Remember, Eli and Flacco ended multiple playoff runs for Brady during his decade-long title drought. Maybe Nix is that kind of roadblock for Mahomes in the AFC West, denying him easy entries to home playoff games after the Chiefs’ reign in the division ended last year.

As long as Reid is there doing the same things over and over and expecting a different result, it’s more likely to be the case. The Chiefs royally blew this one, and that’s on the coach we criticized for the same reasons during the Bush presidency.

Vikings at Lions: The ’72 Dolphins Had Nothing to Worry About

Minnesota’s first loss snapped an improbable 11-game winning streak dating back to last year. But the Lions are probably one of the worst opponents and worst nightmares for the Vikings in 2026:

  • A very talented offense top to bottom that knows Brian Flores’ defense well.
  • A team that can run the ball as Detroit piled up 230 rushing yards (153 for Jahmyr Gibbs), and the Vikings haven’t been tested that much on the ground.
  • Detroit hasn’t been very good defensively, but it shut down the running game for Minnesota as Kyler Murray (35 yards) was their leading rusher on Sunday.
  • Murray’s passive play makes it hard to score enough points and convert enough money downs to win a game like this. The Vikings were 3/10 on third downs and 0/1 on fourth down.

But the ability to get four sacks and the first pick of the season from Jared Goff helped the Vikings maintain a lead for much of this low-scoring game.

Down 12-7 in the fourth quarter, I thought it was a tactical mistake by the Vikings to go for a 4th-and-5 over a 43-yard field goal after a very length injury timeout on a scary play that saw multiple Lions go down. Hopefully Jack Campbell does not have a Ryan Shazier type of injury as I’m not seeing any updates on his condition at 4 AM, which isn’t encouraging.

But I think the Vikings should have just kicked the field goal there after emotions were high on both sides. They forced a three-and-out and led a touchdown drive anyway to take a 15-12 lead with 8:44 left. But Detroit has the offense to answer, and the running game was great on the drive with Goff finding Jameson Williams for a 7-yard touchdown to make it 19-15.

The Vikings had 4:29 left but went three-and-out. This time they punted on a 4th-and-5 from their own 33 with 3:01 left. Probably the right call with the No. 1 defense back in the day. But when you’re on the road and playing an offense like Detroit in today’s NFL, I think you need to go for that one. Give yourself a chance to convert a medium situation, and if you don’t get it, hopefully you force that three-and-out, and at worst you get it back down 22-15 with plenty of time to get the touchdown.

I think that Minnesota punt from Kevin O’Connell, who is used to winning close games, was one of the worst decisions all day in Week 8. The Lions took over and immediately went to work on the ground. Gibbs for 14, Gibbs for 8, a 2-yard push by tight end Sam LaPorta for another first down. By the time it was 3rd-and-1, Goff put the game away on the sneak, and you know Dan Campbell would have gone for it anyway on 4th-and-1 if he didn’t get it.

The Vikings never got the ball back as the Lions took care of the final 2:53. Good win for Detroit (5-2) with winnable games ahead. As for the Vikings, you’re just not seeing enough progress offensively. Murray’s numbers aren’t terrible, but this baseline performance is basically who he is now, and I don’t see any bump in his play like KOC was able to get out of Kirk Cousins (2022) and Sam Darnold (2024).

Ravens at Bills: Disappointment of the Week

Even if the Ravens haven’t been playing well, this was still an interesting game in the AFC on Sunday with the return of Lamar Jackson. Unfortunately, that lasted one snap before Jackson injured his right thumb on a follow-through on a pass from the pocket. It was not a matter of being a running quarterback. It’s the kind of play that could happen to any quarterback on any pass, and it’s a miracle it doesn’t happen every season to several starters.

Worse, Tyler Huntley was soon knocked out with an injury too, putting third-string emergency quarterback Joe Fagnano in a 13-7 game in the second quarter. Apparently it’s “fan-YAWN-oh” on the pronunciation, and it was a yawn after he had to enter the game as an undrafted rookie.

It’s a shame too because this game was there for the taking. Both teams were very sloppy, they already had eight drives each by halftime, there were multiple turnovers, and I thought the Baltimore defense actually played hard this week, even stopping Josh Allen on multiple short-yardage runs.

But with Fagnano unable to sustain drives in a game he probably never thought he’d play in Sunday, the Ravens eventually fell apart in the fourth quarter. Buffalo was already up 23-10, which would have been enough to win, but then two more touchdowns pushed it to a 36-10 blowout.

Meanwhile, this game against backup quarterbacks (minus one throw) will help boost the stats for the Buffalo defense, giving up 10 points on 12 drives, including a 17-yard touchdown drive. But they were never really tested here.

Jackson is on injured reserve and could be lost for the season, which is quickly turning into another lost one with the Ravens at 4-4 and Jacksonville up next on a short week. Some even think Jackson may have played his last down with Baltimore, which would have sounded insane a year ago or even in early September.

But that’s where things are. Jackson and Allen played in their NFL debut in 2018 against each other. If it really does end for Jackson in Baltimore, his last game was also against Allen’s Bills.

Hate to see it go down like this.

Browns at Steelers: The Rare Wire-to-Wire Domination by Pittsburgh in a Big Game

They said it was over 30 years since the Steelers and Browns met in November with first place in the division on the line. This was certainly their biggest matchup since the 2020 AFC Wild Card, a playoff game where the Browns jumped out to a 28-0 lead.

But for a change, the Steelers under Mike McCarthy instead of Mike Tomlin controlled a big game from start to finish, forcing two Cleveland fumbles on the first two drives, and the running game was superb again with 200 yards. In fact, the passing game and playcalling in the red zone were the only sore spots with D.K. Metcalf dropping a pass that was intercepted, and Aaron Rodgers wasn’t sharp in the red area.

Otherwise, the Steelers played great, they sacked Deshaun Watson eight times, and after going up 27-6 barely five minutes into the third quarter, all scoring ceased from there on both sides.

The Steelers go into the bye at 6-2 and in good shape with a huge game again at Cincinnati in Week 10. It would be nice to get some receivers healthy and make up for Metcalf’s lapses, but they have to feel good about where they are right now.

Titans at Bengals: No, 2-35 Is Not Something to Be Proud Of

When Joe Burrow said Sunday was the kind of game the Bengals have lost the last three years, I agree with him. But I’d go a step further and say it’s the kind of game he never wins with the Bengals, because he really hadn’t before Sunday:

  • Sunday is the first time Burrow has taken a snap after the two-minute warning, trailing, and the Bengals won the game.
  • Burrow was 0-15 when the Bengals allowed more than 31 points in a game.
  • Burrow was 1-35 when trailing in the final 8:00 by any margin, and now he’s 2-35.

None of those records are that bad with the other Cincinnati quarterbacks collectively under Zac Taylor, but the Burrow-led Bengals simply don’t come back late and they don’t win shootouts.

But enter the Tennessee Titans, the 1-win team who was a 12.5-point road underdog in this one (biggest spread of the week). The fact that Burrow needed this type of game (462 passing yards, 6 total touchdowns) against this caliber of opponent after it traded its best defender (Jeffery Simmons) is a red flag.

What happened to the so-called improved defense for the Bengals? Sure, they had a few bright spots like getting a safety when the Titans were dumb enough to call a draw run in their own end zone, and they shut the door in the final minute of regulation and in overtime. But you just gave up 36 points and 440 yards of offense to the Cam Ward-led Titans. Ward had 304 passing yards, a career high.

The Titans haven’t put up 36 points/440 yards since the final game of the 2020 COVID season. Are you kidding me? At home nonetheless?

Why such a high-scoring game? Another flat opening performance with the Bengals falling behind 13-0 for the second week in a row was one issue. Another was the four turnovers, including three picks by Burrow. He also had a fumbled exchange with running back Chase Brown that was switched to Brown as credit. Just not enough precision from the perfectionist throughout this one.

So, you can credit Burrow for coming through in the clutch for a change. But let’s not act like this wasn’t some “arsonist puts out fire” against a really bad opponent performance too that doesn’t bode well for their Super Bowl chances.

In fact, it’s very unusual for a favorite of 12+ points to play like this:

  • It’s just the 20th known NFL game where a 12-point favorite gave up 36+ points.
  • The last instance was in 2014 when the Packers won a 43-37 game on MNF vs. Atlanta, but at least that was a Matt Ryan and Julio Jones masterclass on the other side.

The closest game in NFL history to this one is probably in 2012 when the Texans won 43-37 in overtime against the Jaguars, who were 1-8 at the time. They were getting worked over at home by Chad Henne (354 yards, 4 TD) off the bench for an injured Blaine Gabbert, and Matt Schaub, who had lost 9 straight comeback attempts at the time, ended up throwing for 527 yards and 5 touchdowns, including a walk-off touchdown to Andre Johnson in overtime after the teams already exchanged field goals.

It was the first time in NFL history a team scored twice in overtime to win. The Texans ended up going 2-4 in their final six games that season, losing in the divisional round at New England.

Winning is cool, but the Bengals have trailed by 12-13 points in three of the last four games. It’s good they were able to win the last two weeks, but that’s the Ravens without Lamar and the Titans. We saw what happened when they played the Steelers and Jaguars earlier this year. What happens when they play the other AFC contenders and in the playoffs?

The schedule doesn’t have many tough games left for the Bengals, which is why I always liked them this year. Remember, I picked them to lose the Super Bowl. But based on what I’m seeing, I don’t like the progression of this team as I don’t believe the defense is championship caliber, and the offense is still essentially the same thing we’re used to seeing.

Why say more when I can just wait for the next time they play a contender? The Titans had no business being up 36-29 late, and if you don’t see how a turnover-filled game against a scrub is a bad thing, then I can’t help you.

Falcons at Buccaneers: Who Needs a Completion to Win Anyway?

I’m relieved to say a Bijan Robinson touchdown was the only prop pick I played from this game, because it would have been really frustrating to play anything in the passing game.

Sure, the weather conditions (rain, early winds, a soggy field) made passing very difficult here. Michael Penix was 8-for-24 for 125 yards and four interceptions, and the numbers would be even worse without a fluke 76-yard completion that didn’t score anything in the fourth quarter.

But the rain wasn’t pouring down for all 60 minutes, and the Falcons still didn’t score on any of their five second-half drives either. They also could have ran the ball better like Tampa Bay did. In fact, that’s all Tampa did as Bucky Irving (27-170-1) and Kenneth Gainwell (25-140) became the first teammates in NFL history to get at least 25 carries and 140 rushing yards in the same game.

That’s why Baker Mayfield finished just 0-of-3 passing. The Bucs finished with net -2 passing yards because of one sack. It’s the first time an NFL team won without a completion since the 1974 Bills vs. Jets in a similar rain game.

But this still stands out as odd after the Bucs scored 43 points last week despite Baker only completing 7-of-11 passes for 64 yards. You can only blame so much on the rain. If he’s not healthy enough to throw, then they shouldn’t be playing him.

But after an 0-4 start, the Bucs are 3-5 and right in the hunt for the NFC South title again. They’re just doing it in one of the strangest ways we’ve ever seen.

Chargers at Rams: The Battle of Los Angeles Confirms the Chargers Are the Most Disappointing Team of 2026

The Battle of Los Angeles saw the Chargers (0-6) and Rams (3-4) enter with a combined 3-10 record. This was truly a battle to determine the most disappointing team in 2026, and the Chargers led 9-3 late in the first half before the Rams got a touchdown. Then in true 2026 Chargers form, they completed a deflected Hail Mary to Ladd McConkey for 54 yards, but he was stopped at the 1 as time expired. A meaningless play for a meaningless season.

The Chargers did not score on their final five drives, and the Rams handed them a 10th-straight loss in a 24-9 final. Justin Herbert continues to throw the dumbest interceptions we’ve ever seen from him. His 32.9 QBR is ranked dead last in the NFL as you could make the argument that he should just sit at this point.

Meanwhile, a very damning stat came out of this one as the Chargers have gone 27 offensive drives without a touchdown, the longest NFL streak since Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins went 30 drives in 2024.

Chargering used to be funny and entertaining. This is just sad at this point.

Cardinals at Cowboys: Strange (Minshew) Magic

This game was good evidence for my beliefs that the Cowboys have a dumb coaching staff, Gardner Minshew is cut out for comebacks that Jacoby Brissett wouldn’t lead, and the Cardinals would be the best team in the NFC East right now if they weren’t stuck in the NFC West.

Also, Arizona just owns the Cowboys in this era. It was true in the Tony Romo era, and it’s even more true in the Dak Prescott era with this latest improbable comeback.

Arizona benched Brissett for Minshew with 1:35 left in the third quarter and a 17-3 deficit. Tyler Allgeier deserves credit for getting the comeback going with a 63-yard touchdown run. That was one of four straight touchdown drives by the Cardinals after inserting Minshew, who threw for 188 yards and three touchdowns on less than a half of work.

Dallas still had leads of 24-10, 27-17, and 30-24 in the fourth quarter. But down 27-17 left with 3:54, the Cardinals became just the 32nd NFL team since 2001 to win a game after trailing by multiple scores in the last 5:00 and manufacturing all the points that late.

NFL Comebacks in the Last 5:00 (Down Multiple Scores) 2001-2026

Something I noticed about this table is that the Cardinals join the 2014 Seahawks (NFC Championship Game vs. Green Bay) and 2025 Broncos vs. Giants (the last example) as the only three teams who won despite allowing more points during the comeback. The Packers got a field goal to force overtime, the Giants had a go-ahead touchdown after falling behind, and the Cowboys added a field goal on Sunday.

I guess that part was a bit controversial too on Dallas’ part. The Cardinals got a touchdown to Trey McBride to make it 27-24, then Ryan Flournoy recovered the onside kick with a nice return too with 2:07 left. Arizona had one timeout left. The Cards ended up using that last timeout at 2:02 after a Dallas run for no gain as the offense bottomed out badly late in the game.

I think you could argue a first-down pass with play-action would have been the best move as the Arizona defense likely wouldn’t have expected it. Not even a deep throw for a first down. Just something to gain 6-9 yards and keep you on track.

With 2:02 left, Dallas basically had a free play to throw it with the two-minute warning about to hit, and a first down ends the game. Instead, Dak was sacked, bringing up 3rd-and-16. It’s not like you’re probably going to convert that through the air, so I don’t fault the decision to run, which they did for 3 yards. The Cowboys then kicked a 41-yard field goal on 4th-and-13 with 1:09 left to make it 30-24.

Sure, it’s the dreaded 6-point lead, but what else could you really do on 3rd-and-16 and 4th-and-13? They basically had to kick at that point. Paint the failures on the first two downs of that series, not the last two.

Also, the defense could theoretically stop a backup quarterback from driving 80 yards in 65 seconds, can’t they? I mean, how often do you see a team go 80+ yards in the last 65 seconds, down 4-8 points? Stathead only shows it happening six other times, though I question some of those results.

But Minshew pulled it off as Michael Wilson has turned into a stud. He had three catches for 61 yards on the drive, including a 13-yard touchdown that should have won the game. But Chad Ryland showed he’s not much of a Chad by missing the extra point with 0:05 left. Oof.

Dallas lucked out in getting to OT, and I can understand going on defense first as you don’t want to give that defense four downs to face Arizona’s red-hot offense. But that defense came through with a quick three-and-out. The bleeding finally stopped. Dak and the Cowboys just needed a field goal, and what did this overrated offense do? They also went three-and-out with a 2-yard run, incompletion to CeeDee Lamb, and another sack. The Cowboys had minus-9 net yards on their last three drives.

Arizona just needed a field goal, Wilson and Allgeier got them there, and Ryland redeemed his Chad card with a 42-yard field goal to win it.

Minshew is now 8-15 (.348) at 4QC opportunities while Brissett is 7-27 (.206). I would assume this means a quarterback change has been made for the next game, and while it’s not like this team is probably going anywhere in the NFC West, they could be a little more interesting to watch with the weapons they have. Minshew’s always had a decent feel for the game, and LaFleur is doing a good job with the offense this year.

But what a letdown for Dallas (3-5) as it should be yet another year without reaching the NFC Championship Game.

Raiders at Jets: An AFL-Style Shootout

I figured this game had good scoring potential with Klint Kubiak vs. Aaron Glenn’s defense on one side, and Geno Smith would want to show up the Raiders after what happened last year. An old-school AFL shootout between the two teams from the “Heidi Game” broke out with 71 points scored.

The Jets led most of the way, including two 9-point leads, but the Raiders kept coming back on a day their wide receivers had 4 catches for 38 yards and a touchdown (all by Nailor). The running game wasn’t efficient (2.9 YPC), but it’s unique how they run this offense through the backs and tight ends. Brock Bowers had 92 yards and two touchdowns.

The Raiders took a 35-30 lead in the fourth quarter. On their second attempt at a comeback drive, the Jets got the ball to the Vegas 13, but three straight plays didn’t gain a yard. They faced 4th-and-10 with 4:35 left and had a decision to make down 5.

It’s really a no man’s land situation. I see the argument for kicking the field goal as that should be high percentage, and if you use your four clock stoppages to get the ball back against a team that lacks outside WRs and a good running game (and immobile quarterback), you only need a field goal to win.

On the other hand, I see the argument for needing a touchdown, it’s been a 35-30 shootout game, and Geno was playing well with his receivers. Maybe he can convert it here. But given it was 4th-and-10, I probably would have kicked the field goal too to make it 35-33 as the Jets did. I don’t hate Glenn for that decision.

The problem was the defense played poorly in return. The Raiders finally ripped off some strong runs of 7 and 8 yards, then about the worst thing you can do is give up a 7-yard completion to bring up a 3rd-and-1 when you’re down to your last timeout. Cousins converted that on a sneak – even the senior citizens can do it – and that allowed the Raiders to drain a lot of clock.

I guess there was some second-guessing of Kubiak to kick a 53-yard field goal in a 35-33 game, because a miss would put the ball at the 43, and the Jets would have 27 seconds to set up a winning field goal. But I also don’t like the idea of punting or going for it on 4th-and-5 either, so it’s up to the kicker to earn his paycheck. Gay did from 53 yards out, and the Raiders led 38-33.

To be fair, the Jets still had a shot at this in the end. Touchback to the 35, a pass to Garrett Wilson for 15 and another 15 for the rough tackle, and you’re now 35 yards away with 14 seconds left. That should be a couple of shots to the end zone, but Geno’s first try was a great pick in the end zone by Jeremy Chinn, who sealed the deal and made up for his 15-yard penalty on the hit on Wilson.

Patriots at Dolphins: A Happy Ending in Miami for Robert Kraft

The Dolphins have a lot of experience in beating superior New England teams at home over the years. This game was a later 4:25 start instead of the usual 1:00 PM for these teams, but the Patriots didn’t really show up until the second drive of the third quarter when Drake Maye hit a 43-yard touchdown to Kyle Williams. Maye’s first 17 plays gained 42 yards total against one of the league’s worst defenses.

But a couple of overturned pass plays that went in New England’s favor sparked two touchdown drives, and the Patriots led 17-13 going into the fourth. Malik Willis played well early, but he had a bad pick to start the fourth, and that set up another long Maye touchdown pass to make it 24-13.

The Dolphins wasted nearly 6:00 and missed a 43-yard field goal, a killer. By the time they eventually found the end zone, only 2:04 remained and the onside kick (naturally) didn’t work. One first down was enough for the Patriots to run out the clock and escape with a 24-19 win.

Just not enough plays made by Miami. Like what in the Terry Rozier was this pass rush?

Colts at Jaguars: Like a Department Store Going Out of Business

The Colts have a flash sale going on with their roster, and they already seem checked out of things after Sunday’s 42-7 beatdown in Jacksonville. The rumors were that Brian Thomas Jr. will be traded too from the Jaguars, but he caught the first touchdown in this one (his only catch too).

The Jaguars are quietly rolling along with another dominant performance on both sides of the ball. They started peaking after their London trip last year too, so maybe they’ll go on a similar run here. A chance to drop the Ravens under .500 on TNF next.

As for the Colts, if that ends up being Jonathan Taylor’s last game with the team, he had just 8 carries for 23 yards. The Colts might just be ready to blow it all up and start over.

Eagles at Commanders: Your CITY SNF Game Between Two CITY Teams in a CITY Division

Let’s never do that again, NFL. They had a chance to flex the game between NFC East teams with three wins combined out of SNF and did not do so. We were left with a dull 27-10 win by the Commanders that was closer than the score suggested as the Eagles blew a 10-0 lead early, then blew a 41-yard field goal (loudest doink of the day after a 36-yard make was negated by illegal formation) that would have made it 16-13 midway through the final quarter.

Washington piled it on from there, Tanner McKee struggled as the Eagles lost their sixth straight, and Jayden Daniels finally got his first win since October 5, 2025.

But the Commanders are still 2-4-1 and not inspiring much confidence. At least Giants-Eagles is buried in the Sunday 1 PM slate next week where it belongs. I know this won’t be a shock, but the NFL has the NFC East in prime time again soon in Week 10 when the Commanders are at the Giants for TNF.

With the way this division is going, that could be the de-facto NFC East title game this season.

Next Week

Welp, TNF has already been compromised with Lamar Jackson out for the Ravens in Jacksonville. We might not even have enough time to see Tyler Huntley.

Bengals-Falcons should be a lot kinder overseas to the Atlanta offense unless they’re playing in another downpour. You know the 1 PM slate is bad when Broncos-Panthers is the closest thing to a standout game. Yikes. Guess I’ll be strictly RedZone channel with the Steelers on a bye.

Green Bay-New England will try to carry the 4:25 window. I guess Raiders-49ers could be fun for touchdown scoring. SNF is Bucs-Bears, another case of a team coming off MNF and playing on SNF. Don’t love that nor do I love the idea of seeing this Tampa team that doesn’t want to throw the ball right now.

Bills-Vikings on MNF. I know it won’t hold a candle to their 2022 classic where Justin Jefferson had the best catch of his career (4th-and-18) and Josh Allen had the worst quarterback fumble since Joe Pisarcik.

NFL Week 3 Predictions: I’m Empty, Please Fill Me

Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, three times is a pattern.

The beauty of Week 3 in the NFL is trying to figure out which of the last two weeks was more telling for each team. This may be a fool’s errand in the grand scheme of things, but it’s what we do when we have nothing else to go on.

Still, the week got off to a surprisingly good start with the Rams-49ers putting on a show on Thursday night. We really could use a great Sunday of football after a slow Weeks 1-2 and after another difficult week in “the real world.” I doubt anything this weekend can match last season’s Week 10 timely greatness after the election, because that slate had awesome matchups in Seahawks-Patriots and Cowboys-Steelers.

But I have a few thoughts to share on several Week 3 games. A main theme this week is the idea of certain teams and players being in a desperate mode to avoid an 0-3 start. A guy like Brian Hoyer had to know he needed to play better to keep his job. He did even if the 49ers still lost. I think Mike Glennon is in a very similar situation in Chicago to hold off Mitch Trubisky, and while Eli Manning is in no real danger to lose his job in New York, the Giants need to start scoring some points again after this 0-2 start. The same thing can be said about Andy Dalton in Cincinnati. So this stuff is weighing into my predictions this week.

Bengals at Packers

I like for a huge game from A.J. Green, especially with Tyler Eifert out, but how do you go against Green Bay at home after a bad loss? Look for Aaron Rodgers to be much sharper as he usually is at Lambeau. He’s never beaten the Bengals (0-2), but those were Mike Zimmer-coordinated defenses. The Bengals just seem like a broken, lost team at this point. I think firing the OC will give some boost, but a lot of that can also be explained this week by playing a GB defense instead of the Ravens or Texans.

Browns at Colts

Weird to see Cleveland favored on the road, but without Andrew Luck, the Colts really are the most irrelevant team in the NFL right now. It’s like the season hasn’t even started for them yet. However, do I really trust the Browns to win here? If not for botching a 3rd-and-20 last week, I think the Colts would have beaten Arizona. Jacoby Brissett is an upgrade over Scott Tolzien, though the offense is still obviously a problem. I just think at home, the defense can get some hurries, sacks, and takeaways from DeShone Kizer, and the run defense hasn’t been that bad so far. So I’m going to stick with the Colts in this one, as I said they’d start 1-3 with a win over Cleveland if Luck was out the whole time.

Steelers at Bears

Is this not the perfect trap game for the Steelers on the road? Remember, they’re not good in these games away from the state of Ohio. Everyone expects them to win easily, but the Bears gave Atlanta all it could handle in Week 1. Mike Glennon beat the Steelers in one of their home letdown games in 2014 with Tampa Bay. He should have more success through the air against this defense than the Bears will have on the ground. Question is will the defense show up? I don’t think the Steelers have blocked well at all for Le’Veon Bell this year, and he hasn’t been a factor in the passing game. Blame that on skipping the offseason I guess. I also don’t think Ben Roethlisberger has been sharp despite a lot of advanced metrics suggesting things are just fine. He missed a lot of throws against the Vikings and only had success with Brown and the Outlaw in Week 1. This would be a good game to get Martavis Bryant going at a high level again, but either way, the Bears don’t have the defense to match up here so Pittsburgh should win.

But we’ve seen this movie play out before, especially with a big Baltimore game looming.

Giants at Eagles

I’d like to pick the Giants to get a win, but I just think the Eagles are playing better right now, and the defense should have its way with New York’s line. The Giants struggle as it is in Philly, but this is a bad time for this matchup. I think the defense has been fine for New York, so if Eli can get anything going, they have a decent shot here. But if you can’t score 20+ anymore, then you’re not beating the Eagles (or just about anyone).

Falcons at Lions

This could easily be the game of the week, a shootout expected for sure. I’d say Atlanta’s pass protection has been spotty at times again like last year, so Matt Ryan has to watch those drive-killing sacks. Detroit’s defense has been pretty solid, but I’m just not sure Carson Palmer and Eli Manning still have “it” this year at an advanced age. Ryan is in his prime and still on that MVP roll from last year. The defense also looks better for Atlanta, but Detroit’s small ball and tendency to throw to the RBs can definitely lead to points on this defense. Like I said, shootout expected and definitely a game that should come down to the final drive with two of the most prolific QBs at leading game-winning drives. I’m still picking the road team, because I trust Atlanta more than I do Detroit. This team has been pretty hot for a good stretch now with that one massive screw-up known as the 2nd half of Super Bowl LI. But I like the way they’ve started this year in response to that.

Broncos at Bills

Could have been an interesting first road test for Vance Joseph, but I don’t like the fact that Cordy Glenn is out at LT for Buffalo. This needs to be a game where LeSean McCoy dominates, because the Bills aren’t going to have any success with Tyrod Taylor scrambling and trying to throw into this secondary with his limited receiving corps. With Glenn out, I don’t see Buffalo winning up front too much, and they already give up a lot of pressure as it is. Marcell Dareus is also out, and lest we forget, Buffalo was a team pegged to be pretty awful coming into this season after getting rid of so many young contributors. Did you see Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins go over 100 yards each on Thursday for the Rams? The Bills could use some playmakers right now.

Buccaneers at Vikings

I wouldn’t count out Case Keenun making the game at least competitive at home. He did that a lot for the 2013 Texans, but just lost every close game imaginable that year. Vikings are talented, but QB injuries really suck. Tampa Bay was really good last week. Good opportunity for a 2-0 start with a win over another team expected to be in the playoff hunt.

Seahawks at Titans

At least it’s not a 10:00 A.M. start time for the Seahawks. This is the kind of game the Seahawks tend to lose: cross-country, aggressive defense that can get after Wilson, and a team that can run the ball offensively and has a quarterback with escapability too. However, are we sure this is the kind of game the Titans win? They don’t have much of a recent track record, and already flopped at home against Oakland in Week 1. I like this matchup since it’s two preseason contenders (division winners at least) and one is going to start 1-2. I’m still leaning towards Seattle, because I can’t believe that offense won’t be better than how it’s started, and I still like the defense very much.

Raiders at Redskins

In Week 1, Kirk Cousins tied for the team lead with 30 rushing yards. In Week 2, the Redskins had 3 backs go for over 60 rushing yards, a rare feat indeed. Cousins played much more of a dink-and-dunk game manager role in that one, though we are starting to see that the Rams just may not be that good defensively this season. But what kind of offense is Washington right now? Terrelle Pryor hasn’t quite acclimated himself well to the offense yet, Jordan Reed is eternally hurt, and Jamison Crowder has been less productive than RB Chris Thompson. Under Sean McVay as offensive coordinator, Jay Gruden’s offense was pretty consistent the last couple of years, but I see a unit that is struggling to find an identity after losing McVay and the top two wideouts. I’m just not sure what to expect from Washington in any given week, while I think Oakland brings a talented offense with a favorable matchup on any play since Josh Norman can only cover one of Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper at a time. These are unusual teams to see on SNF, but hey, we need some new blood in this league. I don’t think the Raiders are anywhere near being locks on the road to beat an average team, but it’s a decent test for them and not a bad way to end the day.

2017 Week 3 Predictions

I finally got a TNF right by going with the Rams, who almost blew it of course.

Winners in bold.

  • Ravens vs. Jaguars
  • Saints at Panthers
  • Browns at Colts
  • Falcons at Lions
  • Texans at Patriots
  • Broncos at Bills
  • Steelers at Bears
  • Buccaneers at Vikings
  • Dolphins at Jets
  • Giants at Eagles
  • Seahawks at Titans
  • Chiefs at Chargers
  • Bengals at Packers
  • Raiders at Redskins
  • Cowboys at Cardinals

That’s a hell of a lot of road teams to pick, but I guess we’ll just have to tune in to see how it goes.

  • Week 1: 8-7
  • Week 2: 11-5
  • Season: 19-12

NFL Week 2 Predictions: The Matthew Stafford Playoff Predictor

Boy, after this week Roger Goodell could use an Oswald Cobblepot-type scheme to rescue a “kidnapped” baby to regain public support. Just don’t get caught with the “I played this stinking city like a harp from hell!” audio afterwards.

No matter how many times I try to run through a Ray Rice/Peterson-related monologue in my head, it just doesn’t come out right. Frankly, I’m tired of hearing about this stuff all week, so adding to it wouldn’t be very beneficial to anyone. It’s dominated the headlines, so instead of talking about how the Vikings can use Cordarrelle Patterson to drop the Patriots to 0-2 (would be huge), it’s all Peterson talk in Minnesota.

These stories aren’t the NFL I know. They’re the stories we hear every day on the local news, but now replaced with names of people we actually recognize. I just went to a local news’ website and found this familiar headline:

lnews

Following the NFL for a living is a bit of an escape from all the constant reminders of the terrible things that happen across the world each day. Sometimes they happen in the NFL too, but this week (and month, really) has been especially bad.

This is still a human problem, far bigger than the NFL. How does it get better? That’s really not up to Goodell or the league to regulate human indecency. Unfortunately, we’ve had many years to find solutions with little progress. Someone, whether they’re a rich athlete or just living in Wilkinsburg, is going to beat their kids or spouse this weekend. If you listened to that dumbass woman with her Ray Rice jersey, some will think it’s justified.

Every time you justify, another good in you dies.
Faith and fear sears me, and love and you pull all the right strings.
“How we get older, how we forget about each other” she said.
Entwined within the sadder of days.

— Converge, The Saddest Day

Matthew Stafford: Playoff Predictor?

Before the 2013 season I had a stat on how Matthew Stafford was 1-23 against teams that finished the season with a winning record. Now obviously that’s not all his fault. He had good wins over 8-8 teams (otherwise 8-7), he played an unusually tough set of winning teams (none were-9-7) and had some good performances. Arguably the best game of his career was a comeback win over Seattle in 2012. But how did this progress last season when the Lions collapsed after a 6-3 start?

Early in the season, it was easy to joke that the Vikings and Redskins (2012 playoff teams) must be in store for a bad year after losing to Detroit. Then when the Bears were swept and the Cowboys were swept away by a last-minute drive, there were similar sentiments of these teams not finishing above .500. Of course, by season’s end none of those teams did finish above .500, but on Thanksgiving something unusual happened. The Lions mopped the floor with the Packers, who entered with a 5-5-1 record, but had their 4th starting quarterback after the big injury to Aaron Rodgers. That seemed to lock up the NFC North for Detroit, but it would never win another game and Stafford had a brutal December finish.

So he’s upped his record to 2-27 against winning teams, but that Green Bay win almost needs an asterisk. When the Packers had Rodgers earlier in the season, Detroit lost 22-9 in a game without Calvin Johnson.

Staff9

After Week 1, I feel pretty confident in saying the 2014 Giants are destined for a losing record, so Monday night’s game, which was one of Stafford’s best, tells me very little going forward. This week’s game in Carolina will be a much better test. I didn’t have the Panthers finishing above .500 this year, but they were good without Cam Newton in Tampa Bay last week. Derek Anderson really surprised me and the defense was pretty much as dominant as 2013. Cam’s back and this should be a highlight on Sunday’s schedule. Carolina had the best defensive DVOA in Week 1. Another strong performance and Stafford’s stock will deserve to  rise, but another dud and we could have a new addition to the table by December.

NFL Week 2 Predictions

Just .500 last week. I always feel Week 2 is one of the toughest of the year, because how much of last week was useful going forward? I had the Ravens on Thursday night, but the point spread would have killed me the last two weeks. I thought Ravens would win by 3 (the norm in this rivalry), but 26-6 was completely unexpected.

Winners in bold:

  • Patriots at Vikings
  • Cardinals at Giants
  • Falcons at Bengals
  • Saints at Browns
  • Jaguars at Redskins
  • Dolphins at Bills
  • Lions at Panthers
  • Cowboys at Titans
  • Rams at Buccaneers
  • Seahawks at Chargers
  • Chiefs at Broncos
  • Texans at Raiders
  • Jets at Packers
  • Bears at 49ers
  • Eagles at Colts

This is more about the schedule than actual quality of team, but a great shot for Houston to start 2-0. If all goes well for Denver, it could be 2-0 in  a division with three 0-2 teams by Sunday evening. I think Dallas gets back on track offensively and Tony Romo guides a narrow win on the road. The Colts rarely lose back-to-back regular-season games. The Eagles are a tough test, but I like a game-winning drive from Luck in a 31-28 final on Monday night.

Maybe this coming week the news will actually be on the games again.

Detroit Lions: Rebuild. Restore. Reconsider.

Thanks to Sufjan Stevens for the titles. They give me some mileage when talking about the Detroit Lions.

Today’s article, Detroit Lions Using Familiar Rebuilding Plan For Success, is basically me drawing the comparisons in team building between the 2007-current Detroit Lions and the 1988-91 Dallas Cowboys and 1996-99 Indianapolis Colts.

Please check out the article, but here is a summary of the comparison:

  • Each team drafted a No. 1 wide receiver in the first round of the draft (Michael Irvin, Marvin Harrison, Calvin Johnson).
  • Each team had an awful season (3-13 for Cowboys, 3-13 for Colts, 0-16 for Lions) that resulted in a defensive-minded head coach hiring (Jimmy Johnson, Jim Mora, Jim Schwartz), and the No. 1 pick in the draft being spent on a quarterback (Troy Aikman, Peyton Manning, Matthew Stafford).
  • Each team struggled in that coach/QB’s rookie season (1-15 for Cowboys, 3-13 for Colts, 2-14 for Lions).
  • Each team used a 1st-round pick the following year on a running back (Emmitt Smith, Edgerrin James, Jahvid Best).

For Detroit to continue on with the success, they still have some holes in the roster to fill. The other two teams did it (Dallas better than most), and that’s Detroit’s goal.

I didn’t mention it in the article, but there’s also this little tidbit:

  • In 1990, Troy Aikman (2nd season) set a franchise record with 6 game-winning drives (link)
  • In 1999, Peyton Manning (2nd season) tied the then-NFL record with 7 game-winning drives (link)
  • In 2011, Matthew Stafford (3rd season) tied the franchise record with 3 fourth quarter comebacks (link)

Stafford was basically in his second season last year after the 19 missed starts in 2009-10. Detroit came back to win after a deficit of at least 13 points in four different games last season.