NFL 2023 Conference Championship Game Predictions

After a long week, it’s almost time for Championship Sunday. Both No. 1 seeds are favored but crazier things have happened before. Final score predictions below.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Conference Championship Game Predictions

Here is my grid for picks this weekend. Many of the props are explained in the links above.

Chiefs at Ravens (-4.5)

It seems like every year when the Chiefs are in a big game like this, I go back to my Super Bowl LIV preview before they beat the 2019 49ers and the same logic applies to the next game.

This is a game that a team like the Ravens should win most of the time. They have home-field advantage (a good one at that), they have the No. 1 defense, No. 1 running game, a quarterback playing with a chip on his shoulder who is about to get the MVP award again, the best kicker in the game, a coach who has won big games before, and they have killed some top teams this year. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are challenged at wide receiver, have a poor turnover differential, don’t often start games well, don’t protect the ball well, and it probably is going to rain during the game to possibly exacerbate these ball security issues with drops and fumbles against a ball-hawking defense and front-running team.

All that said, the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, and that usually is good enough to win the game. He’s 3-1 against the Ravens and would be 4-0 if CEH didn’t fumble in game-winning field goal territory in the last matchup in 2021. He’s 12-2 against top 5 defenses (7-0 away from Arrowhead), he’s 13-3 in the playoffs, and he’s 8-3 as an underdog. He even comes into this game with his best defense as this is a matchup of the top two scoring defenses, so that differential is more on his side this week than in past big games this time of year.

If the Chiefs can cut down on their mistakes, and Kadarius Toney is inactive again (that helps), I think they win the game. But the Ravens were my preseason Super Bowl pick, Lamar Jackson was my Super Bowl MVP pick, and I’ve been predicting doom in the playoffs for the Chiefs since October:

Not going to change my pick now, so here we go. KC to cover but another egregious mistake by one of Mahomes’ teammates costs them the repeat bid.

Final: Ravens 24, Chiefs 21

Lions at 49ers (-7.5)

It sounds like Deebo Samuel is playing, which doesn’t help Detroit’s cause as they try to make their first Super Bowl. In a weird way, I think if the Chiefs win the first game, the Lions are winning this game to set up that rematch from opening night. Otherwise, it’s No. 1 vs. No. 1 in the SB, and I’m not sure how many times I can keep writing for 2 weeks how Brock Purdy needs to protect the ball better against that defense this time.

But isn’t that always the case with Purdy and this team? They don’t have normal weaknesses, and they actually showed they could win a close game and overcome some adversity last week against Green Bay. If he doesn’t throw a pick parade, you have to like their chances against anybody, but I am looking to see how the defense fares against one of the best offenses they’ll see this year.

The problem is Detroit comes in with the No. 23 defense and has allowed 5 straight quarterbacks to pass for 345+ yards. They’ve still gone 4-1 in those games and would have been 5-0 if not for a certain ending in Dallas, but that kind of bad secondary play is going to catch up to you, and the 49ers obviously scheme open receivers better than any team in the league. That’s why I love Brandon Aiyuk to step up and dominate this week, though the return of Deebo could hurt that. Watch it be a George Kittle masterclass instead. That’s the problem for Detroit, the 49ers are just loaded.

But I am going to be keenly watching for how aggressive Dan Campbell is as a road underdog. He’s had it a little easy at home as a favorite these last two playoff games. Curious to see how many 4th downs he goes for, if he does anything like a fake punt or surprise onside to steal a possession. Anything to win the game.

But in the end, I think the 49ers are too balanced and simply better than the Lions, so I have to go with the home team. But the Lions should be able to cover even if it’s through the backdoor.

Final: 49ers 30, Lions 23

NFL Stat Oddity: 2023 Divisional Round

Block out the first game of the weekend, and the NFL playoffs were back with points, lead changes, game-winning drives, game-ending interceptions, and questionable coaching decisions and flags from the officials. All the real drama this postseason was lacking last week.

Also, I’d love to see one of the charting sites confirm if this postseason has had more dropped interceptions than actual interceptions, because it sure feels like it has. The fact that Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield were the only quarterbacks to have a pick in their stat line this weekend is crazy, and even half of the pair they each threw was a deflection off their own receiver.

We also were reminded that kickers are people too, and like people, it sucks when they are too far right or far left. The Packers and Bills got a dose of that in their latest January exits.

But the streak of 27 quarters this postseason without a lead change ended Saturday night in San Francisco in a big way, and the games continued being competitive through Sunday too. It sets up a Championship Sunday where the No. 1 seeds (Ravens-49ers) will host the No. 3 seeds (Chiefs-Lions), and I know damn well which rematch I’d rather see in Super Bowl 58.

(Hint: It’s how this season started.)

But before we get to that, let’s go over the four games from this weekend.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Bills: History Did Repeat Itself (But It Was Buffalo Wide Right)

I spent the week comparing this game to the 2006 AFC Championship Game, which was played 17 years ago to the date on Sunday when the Colts came back from a 21-3 deficit to win 38-34 and slay that New England dragon in the playoffs so they could win a Super Bowl.

Well, history did repeat itself in Buffalo, but it looked more like Super Bowl 25 with the Bills playing the role of the ball-control Giants before ultimately revealing themselves to be who we thought they were: Buffalo, the wide right team. The drought continues for another year.

The Chiefs coughed up their worst Obligatory Fumble yet, and even that wasn’t enough for Buffalo to take this game. I am not going to force any more old narratives on this game and will just go over the facts of what happened. But I badly wanted to write early in the fourth quarter that the Kansas City offense was having its best game of the season, and the defense was trying to waste it with its worst.

That was definitely happening into the fourth quarter. Even though Buffalo never had a play gain more than 18 yards, the combination of effective short throws and a strong ground game (sometimes aided by Josh Allen) was producing points and draining clock at alarming rates for the Chiefs. The Bills had 24 points and were averaging 60 yards per drive on their first 5 possessions.

In the 3 divisional round games since 2020, the Bills only gave Allen a grand total of 33 carries for 107 yards in non-quarterback rushing support. In this game alone, he had 27 carries for 110 yards.

Usually, shrinking the game is a good strategy against the Chiefs, because you want to maximize their mistakes like the dropped passes, fumbles, and penalties. Those hurt more if the Chiefs are only getting like 8 drives in the game, which is basically what they had in this one if you ignore the kneeldown to get to halftime after a penalty.

But the Chiefs didn’t hurt themselves that badly in this game. Sure, Justin Watson could have made a better play on a third-down pass on the opening drive that led to a field goal. Mahomes missed a couple of throws in the end zone, settling for a second field goal. But after those couple of misses, the Chiefs were all business with 3 touchdowns.

Patrick Mahomes looked great in his first road playoff game as I expected he would. Travis Kelce ended his 7-game drought without a touchdown by scoring twice. Isiah Pacheco chipped in 97 yards. Even MVS looked competent with catches of 32 and 30 yards. In fact, the Chiefs had 8 plays that gained 20 yards, a huge edge over Buffalo (0) that allowed the Chiefs to score 27 points despite barely possessing the ball. The Bills held the ball for 37:03. This is already the third time in his career that Mahomes has led the Chiefs to at least 27 points in a playoff game despite not having the ball for at least 25 minutes. No other quarterback has done that more than once.

This game was an offensive gem for both teams until the Chiefs scored the go-ahead touchdown (Pacheco 4-yard run) with 14:20 left to take a 27-24 lead. Shortly after that, this one went off the rails.

To Kansas City’s credit, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has been great at adjusting in the second half all year. They needed until the fourth quarter to get on track here as Buffalo’s only third-quarter drive was a 15-play, 75-yard touchdown march that took up 8:25. That’s always the concern when you have a team using clock and scoring touchdowns to limit Mahomes’ opportunities.

But after Allen had another designed run for 8 yards, the defense made their mark with a run stop that got James Cook 3 yards behind the line. Allen’s pass on 3rd-and-5 for Stefon Diggs was batted down at the line and it was a 3-and-out.

But instead of punting, the Bills ran a fake to Damar Hamlin of all people, and he only gained 2 yards, giving the Chiefs the ball at the Buffalo 32. Supposedly they caught the Chiefs with 10 players on the field and gave it a shot, but I hate that call. It’s just too risky in that spot.

Pacheco immediately ripped off a 29-yard run to the 3 and it looked like that fake punt was going to be the dagger and put the Bills down 10 points. But I had my most prescient moment of the weekend when I warned Saturday night that the Chiefs could try something excessively stupid with Mecole Hardman in this game:

Hardman already got a carry earlier in the game and fumbled in the red zone, which the Chiefs were lucky to recover. Sure enough, they gave him the ball again on a trick play and he fumbled it through the end zone, reaching too hard for a touchdown he’d never get. One of the worst rules in football was correctly applied after a Buffalo challenge, and the Chiefs coughed up their worst Obligatory Fumble of the season.

Just couldn’t help yourself, could you, Andy? No Kadarius Toney (inactive), but you had to make sure Hardman made his mark on this one. I thought that would doom the Chiefs, but again, the run defense made the difference by stopping Cook for a 4-yard loss. Allen threw a deep ball on 3rd-and-12 and Trent Sherfield, playing more for an inactive Gabe Davis, was unable to come down with it. He had a chance.

The Chiefs also had a chance with solid field position (own 43) to put this one away, and they even got a controversial defensive pass interference penalty to convert a third down when it looked like the contact was made before the ball was released. Thankfully, no one is going to care about that one as the Chiefs punted 3 plays later.

The Bills took over with 8:23 left and tried to slow-walk this one down the field. The drive was long, but it was almost constant short throws by Allen. By stuffing Cook for -7 yards on the last two series, I think the Chiefs spooked the Bills out of not running anymore. Right or wrong, the Bills put the ball in Allen’s hands on 10 straight plays on this drive.

It wasn’t going all that great. Allen fumbled on a 3rd-and-10 run and it was a miracle the Chiefs didn’t recover before the Bills did. Looking more and more like fumble bounce fortune was going to end the Chiefs’ season and repeat bid.

Allen converted a 4th-and-3. Cook eventually received 2 carries on the drive, but they went for no gain and 1 yard. I said this drive was full of short throws, but it started with a deep ball for Diggs, who did a horrible job of locating it.

Diggs had a season-low 24 yards on 11 targets against the Chiefs in Week 14. This time, he caught 3-of-8 targets for 21 yards, fumbling on the first snap of the game (Bills batted it out of bounds for a penalty), and making that egregious effort. His decline in the second half of a season where he only turned 30 needs to be studied, because this was significant.

Allen no doubt had love for the short throws in this one, but maybe he was doing it too much. According to Next Gen Stats, Allen’s 16 completions behind the line of scrimmage were tied for the most in any game since 2018.

Having said that, maybe he could have used a few more at the end of this drive? When these teams met in the divisional round 2 years ago, there were 31 points scored after the 2-minute warning. The game reached that point again, so what would we see this time?

Well, I think Allen tried to recreate one of his touchdowns to Davis from that game. The receiver (Shakir) was open in the end zone but they didn’t come close to connecting on a bit of a wasted snap that quickly brought up 3rd-and-9. On that one, I really don’t know what the plan was from Allen, but that too was incomplete and thrown away. There were no sacks in the game by either defense.

You had to go with kicker Tyler Bass from 44 yards out at that point. If you play this game long enough, no kicker is perfect in these situations. But Bass has not established himself yet as someone who you would call reliable in the clutch. After this miss, now you wonder if his career is going to tank like many before him have seen happen after they miss a legacy-defining field goal in the playoffs.

With 1:43 left, Bass’ kick was wide right, the worst fate you can have as a Buffalo kicker as it immediately recalls what Scott Norwood did at the end of Super Bowl 25, which is sadly still going to be the closest the Bills ever were to winning a Super Bowl.

The Chiefs just had to hand it to Pacheco twice for a first down, and that was the ball game. The Chiefs held on for a 27-24 win as no points were scored in the final 14:20 after such a stellar start for both offenses. Mahomes’ road playoff debut was a huge success.

The fake punt didn’t really ruin Buffalo’s game thanks to the Hardman fumble cancelling it out, but would things have gone better without that? Then again, the punter was injured and not doing well all night. Maybe the Bills are just cursed this time of year, and something will always go wrong, and it seems like special teams are often at the forefront of that (Norwood, Music City Miracle, not kicking short to burn time in the 13 seconds game, etc.).

Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, but three times is a pattern. The Bills can beat the Chiefs by 35 points in the regular season next year and I cannot in good faith pick them to win the next playoff matchup.

I’m out on Buffalo if Mahomes and the Chiefs are involved.

Packers at 49ers: Did Love Text a Dick Pic or Incriminating Welfare Scam Question Before His Favreian Interception?

The future may be bright for the Packers again with Jordan Love at quarterback. But if Saturday night is any indication of things to come, the future may resemble a lot of the past three decades as well.

Jordan Love paid homage to Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre in the same night by throwing a disastrous game-ending interception and losing to the 49ers in the NFC divisional round. The Packers are now 0-5 in the playoffs since 2012 against the 49ers, including an 0-3 record for coach Matt LaFleur.

Oh, what could have been this time. Like last week, the Packers won the coin toss and rightfully chose to receive. Take it to that front-running team early. But this time the Packers were stopped in the red zone and held to a field goal, which would become a theme of the night.

Brock Purdy had an interception dropped right off the bat and in between his completions to Deebo Samuel, who left with an injury after what looked like could have been a huge night for him.

But the Packers messed up the early second quarter drive when they tried to quickly run a quarterback sneak and Love was ruled short. I hate when teams rush the sneak. The best thing about the play is you can usually convert even when the defense knows it’s coming. Take your time, dig in, and get push. The Packers didn’t get enough push and that was a bad turnover on downs. I never saw any real convincing angle to show Love got it for sure to overturn the call.

George Kittle struck with a touchdown on Purdy’s best throw of the half, then the 49ers later had a 48-yard field goal blocked to end the half with a 7-6 lead. I honestly wasn’t sure which team should have felt better about that half. Both left chances on the field for more points and the Deebo injury was big.

The third quarter was some of the best action this postseason. Bo Melton caught a 19-yard touchdown, which was answered by a 39-yard touchdown run from Christian McCaffrey. After 27 straight quarters without a lead change this postseason, we finally had them pouring in. The Packers even had special teams revenge in mind for their horrific performance in the 2021 divisional round loss. They returned a kickoff 73 yards after CMC’s score, but they nearly lost it on a fumble. That set up a 20-yard touchdown drive, and Love threw to Aaron Jones for the 2-point conversion. Speaking of Jones, the Packers had been a bit of an outlier this postseason as the only real road team who was winning games and running the ball well. Jones had 108 yards on a tough run defense, though 53 of that did come on one play.

But it was enough to take a 21-14 lead into the fourth quarter. Could it have been better? Sure. Love threw behind his tight end and the pass was tipped for an interception, only his second pick in the second half of the season. That set the 49ers up at midfield as the final quarter approached.

But isn’t a 7-point lead usually enough to beat Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers? Yes and no. The stat they showed during the game was that Shanahan is 0-30 when entering the fourth quarter and trailing by 5+ points. He’s now 1-30. But that isn’t the same as saying Shanahan has never won a game when trailing by 5+ in the 4th quarter. In fact, the 49ers were down 24-17 late when they came back to force overtime against the 2021 Rams in Week 18. That win is how they made the playoffs that year.

In those playoffs, they were infamously down 10-3 in the fourth against the No. 1 seeded Packers in the divisional round when they blocked a punt for a game-tying touchdown with 4:41 left before winning 13-10 on a last-second field goal.

That means of the 3 times Shanahan has won a game when trailing by 7 points in the fourth quarter, 2-of-3 were in the playoffs against LaFleur and the Packers. Ouch.

Shanahan’s 0-for stat, which did not apply here and is still active, is that he is 0-38 when the 49ers trail by at least 8 points in the fourth quarter. We’ll see if that one comes up the rest of this season.

The season is continuing after a big finish from the team. Rookie kicker Jake Moody had that big game-deciding miss in Cleveland this year, but he looked good on a 52-yard kick on the first snap of the fourth quarter to make it 21-17.

The 49ers got the ball back and reached the Green Bay 40, but the drive stalled once Purdy tried throwing deep on 3rd-and-10 for Ray-Ray McCloud. That seemed like an insane decision, but that’s what happens when Deebo is out, and Brandon Aiyuk was oddly quiet.

Jones broke his 53-yard run, and that looked like it might be a dagger. But the Packers stalled again, and rookie kicker Anders Carlson was about to join the infamous list of kickers who choked in the playoffs. He’s had his struggles this year, missing 5 extra points, and this was going to be a 41-yard attempt, which shouldn’t have been so bad. I was worried about Moody for the 49ers, but Carlson should have been the one on my radar instead. Sure enough, he pulled the kick wide left with 6:18 left.

It wasn’t nearly as bad as what Gary Anderson did for the 1998 Vikings to ruin his perfect season and fail to give his team a late 10-point lead. But it would have been a big kick for Carlson’s team to go up 24-17 with overtime a possibility in the worst-case scenario. But now he left the door open for the 49ers to take the lead and break the hearts of Packers’ fans again.

I thought Purdy had an underwhelming game and his accuracy was spotty all night. But when it came to the drive of the game, he was money this time. He was 6-of-7 passing with a drop by Kittle. He found Aiyuk for a key 3rd-and-5 pickup. He scrambled for a good 9-yard gain in the red zone. On the next play, McCaffrey took the handoff for an easy 6-yard touchdown run, his second of the game. It almost looked like the Packers let  him score, and given the situation (3rd-and-1, 1:11 left), maybe that was the right call.

But I hated the idea of Carlson’s next kick being one that would determine if Green Bay still had a season left. He probably wanted no part of that kick either, but first the offense had to get him out there.

I attacked Favre and Rodgers for years for their performances in these spots. Favre was in the situation a ton, so he had a lot of game-winning drives, but boy did he have a lot more awful turnovers. Rodgers got better at this in the second half of his career, but he was still prone to taking sacks and not being aggressive enough.

We are still of course learning about Love but yikes, what an impression he left in the biggest moment of his career so far. He had 67 seconds and 3 timeouts, so that is plenty of time to get a field goal even if you had to get that sucker within 35 yards for this kicker to make it.

It looked a little like pulling teeth to get that initial first down, but sometimes that is the hardest one to get. But after using the first timeout with 52 seconds left, I never imagined Love would make such a reckless, awful throw on 1st-and-10. I don’t know what he thought was going to happen, but Dre Greenlaw was there for another pick. Instead of going down and ending the game, Greenlaw was relentless in trying to return the ball. Did he tell his cash-strapped friends to bet $$$$$ on 49ers -9.5 or something? Jesus Christ, get down, man.

The 49ers had separate drives with a 53-yard run and a 38-yard completion and scored no points on either drive. They had a 41-yard field goal to take a 7-point lead and missed it. They were maybe 30 yards away from another game-tying field goal attempt and threw a horrific pick that only would have looked more like Favre if Love was wearing Crocs and texting how to defraud the Mississippi Welfare Fund.

It was a classic Green Bay playoff loss, and it’s good to know the new era is going to share a lot in common with the past two. Better find a Reggie White or Charles Woodson again. Someone who will put down Purdy or hold onto his interception in the big moment.

But hats off to the 49ers too. This was the kind of game I questioned if they could win since they had no game-winning drives all season and rarely were tested this way. They showed they can overcome a slow start and some adversity like the Deebo injury. It should serve them well the rest of the postseason.

Buccaneers at Lions: The Baker-Goff Sunday Matinee We Deserved

Given the lack of history between these teams, I didn’t know what to write to fill up their game preview, so I spent about 1,100 words on showing some appreciation for Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield. They’re both No. 1 picks who have been accused of being play-action merchants and products of Sean McVay and Kevin Stefanski, but both have now won playoff games with different teams, and not anyone can end long playoff droughts for the f’n Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions.

So, this may not have been your typical divisional round matchup, but the quarterbacks and teams put on a good show in a competitive 31-23 game that got increasingly higher scoring as the talent took over.

Early on, the defenses were making it tough to earn anything. Mayfield had a pass deflected off Mike Evans’ hands that was intercepted on a third-and-long, and the Bucs should have picked off Jared Goff in the end zone on that drive, but he got away with it (drop by Jamel Dean) and the Lions got a field goal out of it.

But that was what made it a good game as the defenses were playing well and making the offenses really earn every first down and point. The Bucs had the upper hand in running the ball early, which was surprising given they were the 32nd-ranked run game again this year, but neither team ran the ball well at all in Week 6. Eventually, the Lions did figure things out and Jahmyr Gibbs popped a 31-yard touchdown run to start the fourth quarter that broke a 17-17 tie and was in effect the game-winning touchdown. Gibbs finished with 74 rushing yards, and tight end Sam LaPorta had 9 catches for 65 yards, so it was another successful outing for the rookie class of the Lions.

Tampa hit the upright on a 50-yard field goal late in the first half, but it did rebound by getting the ball back and Mayfield threw a touchdown to Cade Otton, another young tight end who played well and tied the game at 10 at halftime.

I thought Mayfield played quite well, but there were some troubling mistakes that you’re not sure if it was his fault for missing something pre-snap or if it was a coaching mistake. But there is no reason for Aidan Hutchinson to come in unblocked off the edge on multiple occasions, including a 3rd-and-4 sack to start the third quarter that knocked the Bucs out of field goal range. Hell, the kicker (Chase McLaughlin) probably would have missed again anyway. But that was a mistake that happened a few times in this game.

Speaking of mistakes, I thought the Lions were hosed on a chop block to wipe out a 25-yard gain on 3rd-and-10 deep in their own in the third quarter. It looked like David Montgomery went to block the defender before his lineman did, so that call was pretty weak to me. But the Lions ended up getting the ball back and scored a go-ahead touchdown on a 4th-and-1 run by Craig Reynolds after some passes were unsuccessful by Goff. Just pound it in, Detroit.

But I have my complaints with Dan Campbell too as I felt he was asleep at the wheel when he didn’t challenge if Baker was down on a sack before he threw a ball away to almost end the quarter. It looked like his calf was down and that would have made it a lot tougher on the Bucs to convert. Instead, they threw a screen on 3rd-and-10 and Rachaad White scored a 12-yard touchdown on a great call to tie the game.

Gibbs was absolutely dominant on the game-winning drive with 57 of the 75 yards. The Bucs went 3-and-out, and it looked like the Lions put it away with an 89-yard touchdown drive where Amon-Ra St. Brown was the star this time. He converted a 3rd-and-15 with a strong YAC effort to just get over the line, then finished the drive with a 9-yard touchdown to make it 31-17 with 6:22 left.

St. Brown had his ninth straight game with at least 6 catches and 70 yards. Only Marvin Harrison (2001-02 Colts) and Travis Kelce (2020-21 Chiefs) have done that for 9 straight games in their careers.

But Mayfield kept the game alive and led a great drive with a 4th-and-14 conversion to Evans, who also caught a 16-yard touchdown with 4:37 left to make it 31-23. The Bucs went for 2, and Evans is usually excellent at acting and embellishing to draw DPI flags, but he didn’t do it well here and there was no call despite the defensive back not playing the ball that well. The Bucs still trailed 31-23.

This decision always gets defended as the “analytics play” and NBC’s Cris Collinsworth went through the explanation of it again. I get it. I don’t mind it. I probably would have gone for it too in this game with the way it was going.

But I just hate the way people hammer on this like it’s some amazing cheat code to win games or that it’s always the right, obvious call.

Because it’s not.

I ranted about this on Twitter already, but first, we have to stop pretending that all teams down 14 in the fourth quarter are trying to win in regulation when we know most of them are thinking of tying the game. Todd Bowles does not strike me as the kind of coach who would go for the go-ahead 2 if his team scored its second touchdown with 2:00 or 1:05 left in the game either. He’d think he was playing for overtime.

Also, this is the playoffs and the rules have changed for overtime where both teams are guaranteed possession now. So, would overtime really be that bad of an outcome now when it can no longer end after a touchdown drive like in the past?

The only other thing I’ll say is it never seems to be acknowledged just how aggressive you can make the other team when you do this. Don’t you think Detroit might approach the following drive a little differently if it was up 6 points instead of 7 or 8 points? If you’re up 8, you can be a little safer with that cushion. Same way a team approaches things differently if it was down 1 point instead of in a tied game. If you do this move and get it right on the first touchdown, you’re giving the opponent two chances to be more aggressive. Detroit is more aggressive than most to begin with, but encouraging the Lions to be extra aggressive isn’t the smartest move in my view.

  • Since 2021, 48 NFL teams have scored a touchdown in the fourth quarter while down exactly 14 points with a point after decision to make.
  • 34 teams kicked the extra point, and those teams were 8-25-1 (.250) in the game.
  • 14 teams went for the 2-point conversion, 9-of-14 (64.3%) were successful, and they were 2-12 (.143) in the game.
  • The average extra point kick came with 8:48 left to play.
  • The average 2-point conversion came with 5:47 left to play, so there is a time element to consider as this strategy should be attempted with less time left in the game.

If you ask me, 2-12 when your only wins are the most improbable comeback of the 2023 season (Tennessee in Miami) and a game where the Saints choked on a field goal in Green Bay after having nearly 3:00 to set it up are not a ringing endorsement here. Tua had almost 2 full minutes in that Miami loss too just to get the No. 1 offense in position for a winning field goal. Again, you can’t control the clock like you think you can.

Anyways, it ended up being a bit moot. The Lions almost were too good on offense as they started the drive with 3 consecutive first downs: 15-yard pass, 11-yard run, and a penalty that wiped out a sack. But the Lions didn’t gain another first down and the Bucs got the ball back with 1:59 and 1 timeout left at their own 10 in a 31-23 game.

Baker has done this before, but the Lions aren’t the Raiders in a low-stakes Thursday night game. Just two plays into the drive, he forced a pass over the middle and Derrick Barnes made the pick of his life to send the Lions to the NFC Championship Game. Fron 1 playoff win during 1958-2022 to 2 playoff wins in January 2024. Crazy stuff.

Speaking of crazy, the Bucs still had their final timeout left after the pick. The Lions did them a favor by taking a knee quickly on second down, so after Goff took a knee on third down with 37 seconds left to bring up fourth down, why in the hell would Bowles not call his last timeout with over 30 seconds left?

The ball was at the Tampa 31. It would have been a 49-yard field goal attempt for a so-so kicker. He could have missed or it could have even been blocked, giving Tampa the ball back with over 25 seconds in a one-possession game. To just let the game end was insane, and the NBC broadcast didn’t even acknowledge this happened.

Asked after the game, Bowles tried saying they’d have 12 seconds after the field goal. Not a chance. They likely have over 30 seconds left, which even in an 11-point game would still be a chance even if it’d require one of the craziest comebacks ever. But even if it was 12 seconds, you don’t just give up on the game like that. If this weekend showed anything, you don’t trust a kicker from 49 yards away to make the kick.

The better team, better coach, and better quarterback won in the end. Now let’s see what the Lions have left for a road trip as a big underdog. Watching them win as a home favorite in back-to-back weeks in the playoffs was cool, but they have a much tougher test coming up in San Francisco.

Texans at Ravens: They Had Me the First Half, I’m Not Gonna Lie

Ending with the game that started the weekend, Houston’s 34-10 loss in Baltimore was a sobering reminder of just how hard it is for a rookie quarterback to succeed in the NFL’s postseason against a great defense, especially on the road.

Sure, C.J. Stroud did well at home against Cleveland last week, but the Browns did not travel well defensively this year. Baltimore has been legitimate all year on defense, and it made some history in this game by being able to hold the Texans to just 3 offensive points. The only Houston touchdown was a punt return.

The Texans set a record for worst margin of defeat (24 points) in NFL history for a team that had no turnovers and no sacks in a game.

In fact, the Texans are the first NFL team since 1940 (regular season or postseason) to lose by more than 10 points in a game where they had no offensive touchdowns, no sacks, and no turnovers.

This is a near-impossible combo of stats to pull off in a game, and the Texans only had one missed field goal and one failed fourth down too. The list of teams to have no sacks and no turnovers and only score 10 points (or fewer) is small at just 24 teams in the Super Bowl era. One of those teams was the 2023 Chargers in their 6-0 win over the Patriots this year.

You would have figured Stroud threw a pick parade or took a handful of sacks like he had in Week 1 when these teams played. But it was nothing like that. Just stopped them cold time and time again. Sure, they dropped a pick in this game, but they didn’t even need a turnover to keep them out of the end zone. They shut down the running game completely as Devin Singletary had 9 carries for 22 yards.

But for a half, the Texans were hanging in there with Baltimore. I don’t believe this is a case of Baltimore’s past playoff failures getting in their heads. I think it was more like “we blew off Week 18, we had a bye week, and we’re not as sharp as we need to be” for about a half.

But DeMeco Ryans went against his script and was very aggressive with blitzes, and it is hard to deny it worked for a half. On six drives, they forced the Ravens into a 3-and-out 4 times, gave up a 53-yard field goal to start the game, and only allowed one 76-yard touchdown drive. Lamar Jackson was sacked 3 times in a half that saw him net just 23 passing yards. His damage was on the ground where he had 50 yards.

If the Texans didn’t miss a 47-yard field goal with 32 seconds left in the half, they likely go to the locker room with a 13-10 lead. Not bad for a team with an offense that couldn’t find the end zone, and one that racked up 8 penalties for 50 yards as pre-snap penalties killed the Texans early in this game. That’s a good sign of an inexperienced team that was struggling to communicate on the road.

But the second half was a runaway by the Ravens, who put together 3 straight touchdown drives while the Texans floundered. Just like that, it was 31-10 with 5:00 left and the rest of the game was a formality.

The first drive of the half for each team set the tone for the rest of the game. The Ravens adjusted to Houston’s blitzing, and after Jackson avoided a red-zone interception that was dropped, he took off on a 15-yard quarterback draw for a touchdown. While Stroud had a few impressive throws in the first half, Houston played too scared with him on early downs with ineffective runs and short throws. A screen pass lost 5 yards and short-circuited Houston’s drive in Baltimore territory. They punted and never threatened the rest of the game.

Isaiah Likely caught a 15-yard touchdown, then Jackson ran for another 8-yard score, giving him 2 by air, 2 by ground to tie a playoff record. It was the first time the Ravens scored more than 20 points in a playoff game under him.

The future is bright for Houston, but that team just wasn’t ready to win a game like this.

The Baltimore offense from the second half will need a similar performance against the Chiefs, who look prepared this postseason for these big games. Both teams will provide each other’s biggest challenge this season.

Next week: I think we are getting the best possible championship game matchups this season could produce. Cowboys and Eagles imploded, and we already saw the 49ers crush them. Give Detroit as an underdog a shot. You know they’ll at least be aggressive.

As for the AFC, is there any team in the league that you’d trust more to knock off the No. 1 defense on the road than the Chiefs? If the Ravens want this to go down as a historic defense and team, they must take out Mahomes and the champs. It’s a perfect storyline as this was supposed to be the new AFC rivalry years ago, then Buffalo and Cincinnati substituted instead since the Ravens couldn’t win in the postseason or keep their QB healthy through December. Now we get to see it with the Super Bowl on the line.

Can’t wait for that one and it’s on first.

NFL 2023 Divisional Round Predictions

It’s finally here. My favorite weekend of the NFL year.

But I recall being very disappointed with last year’s divisional round.

  • Patrick Mahomes had the high-ankle sprain against Jacksonville, which took some shine off that game.
  • The Giants didn’t even show up in Philadelphia.
  • The Bengals jumped all over Buffalo in another game that was over (competitively) very fast.
  • Then the Cowboys and 49ers played a decent game that ended 19-12.

It was a major dud compared to two seasons ago (2021 season) when we had the single best divisional round ever.

  • The Bengals survived 9 sacks in Tennessee to upset the No. 1 seed.
  • The 49ers shocked the Packers in Green Bay thanks to special teams.
  • The Rams looked like they sent Tom Brady into retirement in Tampa.
  • The Bills and Chiefs scored 31 points after the 2-minute warning in a 42-36 overtime classic.

We’ll see what we get this time, and two of the games are rematches from 2 years ago. Oddly enough, we almost had 3 rematches if the Rams would have pulled off the only close finish in the wild card round, but they lost 24-23.

That’s one of the things I’m looking at this week. We’ve had 22 straight quarters without a lead change this postseason. We already have 5 wire-to-wire wins (recent record is 8 in 2020) with 7 games to go this postseason. We have the No. 1 seeds nearly favored by 10 points, and even the Lions are a 6.5-point home favorite. But I think there is potential for more drama this weekend.

In 16 of the last 18 seasons, at least one home team lost in the divisional round (exceptions: 2015 and 2018).

This Week’s Articles

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Let’s start with my chart of stuff I’m betting on this week, which includes most of the picks from the links above.

Yes, I put both BUF and KC in the ML picks because I will certainly be making bets for each scenario. I think it’s as big of a coin flip game as any this weekend. If you want my official pick you just have to scroll a couple centimeters cause I’m giving the final score picks right here.

Texans at Ravens (-9.5)

I certainly don’t think the Ravens have accomplished enough in the playoffs to trust them to take care of business here. But I have my concerns with Houston being down receivers and having an inconsistent defense. The “rookie quarterback on the road against No. 1 defense” is also obviously a huge hurdle to overcome, even if C.J. Stroud is a special case. I think Houston’s best hope is an early turnover or mistake from the Ravens (tipped pick or failed 4th down) and to get up on the scoreboard and let that pressure mount on the top seed. Houston’s lack of turnovers is a real positive in this matchup, because you can’t feed the Ravens short fields and make this easier for them.

Nothing this weekend would really shock me. None of these upsets would be on the level of the 2010 Jets in New England a month after 45-3 happened. This wouldn’t even be the worst loss by a Baltimore team as a No. 1 seed. In fact, that 2019 upset by the Titans is what makes this less of a surprise if it happens. But I think the Ravens have their best scoring playoff game under Lamar and get the win (but not the cover) over an impressive Stroud who will be the overwhelming favorite to repeat in the AFC South next year and be a top MVP candidate.

Final: Ravens 27, Texans 19

Packers at 49ers (-9.5)

Remember when the Packers were the front-running team that you just had to punch in the face early and take control of the game? The 49ers used to do that to them all the time in big games. In a way, that’s still possible in this matchup as Jordan Love is going to face a tougher challenge than he did a week ago in Dallas. But that game was good prep work for this one as the Cowboys and 49ers were both historical teams this year at winning games by big margins and rarely having to play from behind. That’s why I love the idea of Green Bay taking the ball first if they can like they did last week and getting off to that good start and making Brock Purdy play from behind.

But I think with an extra week to prepare and a better coaching staff, the 49ers are going to have a plan and have too much talent for the Packers to overcome this year. But just like with Baltimore, who also rested starters in Week 18 and had a bye week, watch out if there’s that early sign of rust and a mistake that the Packers can capitalize on. Remember, the Ravens and 49ers barely won any close games this year, so if you can challenge them early and make them uncomfortable, all the pressure is on them to win these games. That’s why I have some hope we could see at least one close finish, if not an upset out of these Saturday games.

Final: 49ers 30, Packers 23

Buccaneers at Lions (-6.5)

I don’t take much away from the 20-6 game these teams played in Week 6. The Detroit defense has gotten worse, the Tampa offense has gotten better. I think both teams score at least 20 and we get a nice little aerial show out of Goff and Mayfield. I like Evans and St. Brown to both score. But I like that Goff has a history of stepping up against Bowles’ blitz and carrying the offense in those games. The spread would probably be a little lower if I set the line for this game, but it should be a nice appetizer before Sunday’s main event. I’m just going to trust the Lions at home to get the job done again. A game similar to last week but with more balanced scoring over the two halves.

Final: Lions 30, Buccaneers 24

Chiefs at Bills (-2.5)

I think the top AFC preview, Upset Alert, and Scott’s Seven Pick linked above did my talking for me in great detail about this game already. My preseason pick was the Chiefs settling for the #3 seed because they lost to the #2 seed Bills in December. Then I had the Bills beating #7 Pittsburgh in the wild card, then I had them beating the #3 Chiefs in the divisional round to set up an AFC title game in Baltimore against the #1 seed next week.

Why change the pick now when we’re so close to that all happening? Having said that, I still think you see an upset this weekend, and this is still the game most likely to produce it. The closer we get to kickoff, the more I like the Chiefs’ chances as I think Buffalo’s injuries are relevant not just on defense, but they don’t have Gabe Davis to take some attention away down the field and free up Stefon Diggs, who had his worst game of the season in Arrowhead.

I also think the road game thing is overblown for Mahomes, who has been fantastic on the road in his career and will likely relish this challenge this week. He’s also 7-3 SU and 8-1-1 as an underdog in his career. Yeah, I’m already repeating things I wrote several times this week, so I would highly recommend reading those links above for my full thoughts on this game.

I just think the defenses play well enough to keep the score down (no 42-36 this time), and it’ll come down to who makes the big mistake or the big stop at the end. Just like it has the last 3 times these teams have met. And in the end, I’ve been saying all year how the Chiefs’ mistakes (the league-leading drops, the annoying penalties on the OL and one huge one on Kadarius Toney, the obligatory fumble, etc.) are going to kill them come playoff time when they’re on the road trying to keep up with another top quarterback and they have this WR room holding them back.

So, I stuck with the gut.

Final: Bills 24, Chiefs 21

Enjoy the last big slate (4 windows) of the 2023 season.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 17

Admittedly, I had higher expectations for Sunday after the way Week 17 started with Joe Flacco practically throwing for 300 yards in a half against the Jets (without Amari Cooper), then the game not even producing a touchdown after a 51-point half (an NFL first).

Then we watched the Lions and Cowboys on Saturday night in a game that I would describe as ideal for a big matchup this year. Not a shootout with horrible defense and receivers running wide open everywhere, but talented players (CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, etc.) stepping up to make plays, defenses making it tough on both offenses, and a lot of strategic decisions you can second guess like Dan Campbell sticking to his guns with 4th downs and 2-point conversions.

In the end, there was another officiating controversy I’m in no mood on New Year’s night to write about. Officials suck, period, but it was at least an illegal formation, no? They threw two flags. But I think the 2-point decision by Detroit was defensible with 23 seconds left. I just don’t agree with going for it from the 7-yard line after the penalty. But that game also showed why both teams are good but still a little hard to trust.

But Sunday didn’t produce too many thrills. There were 8 games with a comeback opportunity. The only lead changes saw Patrick Mahomes lead the 20th game-winning drive of his career, a game where the Chiefs scored six field goals after falling behind by 10 points, and an epic comeback/choke in Philadelphia that can really rewrite the season script for January.

Because we are into January now, and we know that brings out the worst in NFL fans. So, let’s try to keep a levelheaded view of where things are with one week to go.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Dolphins at Ravens: Game of the Ye-Yeah, We REALLY Need to Stop Hyping These

I want to give Mike McDaniel credit for picking the Dallas week to deliver his cute little “respectfully, f off” speech to the media when asked about Miami’s record against winning teams during his tenure. If you’ve been following Miami (and Dallas), then you know playing a contender on the road is the much bigger issue for this team as seen in the losses this year to the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs (Germany).

Practically every team is going to struggle in road games against contenders, but Miami’s track record is not one that makes me think this team is anything more than a paper tiger. A team built on speed, not enough depth as McDaniel thinks he has, and an offense that seems to fail against the contenders that have strong defenses.

But in a way, I almost felt bad for them going down 56-19 in Baltimore, because they are better than that, and this was the first time in one of these big matchups this year where they had a valid excuse to underperform. They didn’t have Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert on offense, and when you are an offense built around speed, then not having half of your main weapons you rely so heavily on is a big blow.

But in a game that likely locked up an MVP for Lamar Jackson, it also showed why someone like Tyreek Hill can almost never be MVP in this league. On a day where Waddle is out, you have to expect Hill to do more. But when the game was very much competitive, Hill had a huge blunder that cost his team 4 points when he bobbled a wide-open catch in the end zone and couldn’t secure it in time with both feet down. The Dolphins had to settle for a field goal and 10-7 lead instead of 14-7 after this started out like the Buffalo loss in Week 4 where it looked like a shootout before it quickly turned into a bloodbath.

Hill finished with 6 catches on 12 targets for 76 yards, a below-average game for his high standards this year. The dream of 2,000 yards is over now unless he has one of the greatest games in NFL history against those Bills next week.

The Hill drop stung, but the Dolphins largely blew this game late in the second quarter to early in the third quarter, not unlike the Packers in the 2020 NFC Championship Game against Tampa Bay.

After settling for another field goal to make Baltimore’s lead 14-13, Zay Flowers got behind the defense for a 75-yard touchdown, avoiding two tackles on a 1-play drive to make it 21-13.

Miami loves to play fast in every way, but sometimes that rush to get another play off before the 2-minute warning is completely unnecessary as it was here with the Dolphins already in Baltimore territory. But Tua rushed the play, and he was picked. It looked like the defense might force a 4-and-out after the Ravens decided to go for a 4th-and-7 in no man’s land, but Jackson’s pass was pulled in with one hand by tight end Isaiah Likely, who raced the rest of the way for a 35-yard touchdown to blow it open at 28-13.

The Dolphins also botched their hurry-up offense on the final drive of the half, ending without any points again. To start the second half, Baltimore returned the kickoff 78 yards to help the offense start a drive in the red zone as I’ve mentioned this week the Ravens have the best starting field position in the league. Three plays later, Jackson found a wide open Likely for another touchdown.

In under 5 minutes of action, the Ravens went from a 14-13 lead to a 35-13 lead, and just like that the game was basically over.

The Dolphins were famously down 21 points in the fourth quarter last year in Baltimore and won 42-38, the only big road win of McDaniel’s career to this day. But while they were down 22 in this quarter and got a touchdown to make it 35-19, the Ravens made sure history would not be repeated. They quickly drove for 75 yards as Jackson threw his fifth touchdown pass, then the Dolphins went 4-and-out with Tua scrambling unsuccessfully on a 4th-and-long, setting up yet another short-field touchdown for the Ravens. Tyler Huntley even came in after the Dolphins fumbled a snap and threw a sixth touchdown pass for Baltimore to make it 56-19 one play after Bradley Chubb was injured for Miami, another potentially big loss for the defense.

Would Waddle and Mostert have made a difference? They unfortunately can’t play defense. But maybe a fuller offense could have made it 21-16 or tied it up at 21 going into halftime instead of that disastrous finish. But, I’m not sure I’d like Miami’s chances to even cover the spread in a rematch in Baltimore because that’s where the game would be with the Ravens locking up the No. 1 seed.

Tale as old as time in the NFL. The “finesse” offense (the track team) gets punched in the mouth by the No. 1 defense, and the less heralded offense on the other side is the one that’s finding all the big plays and making it look easy.

Seriously, Jackson threw 5 touchdown passes in this game and 4 of them went to wide-open receivers, and 2 of them were one-handed catches. If that wasn’t happening, there was almost no pressure on him with a massive pocket to work from, and they even made big YAC plays in this game. It was a total shredding of the Miami defense.

But it’s also historic in that this was not the first time this season Miami allowed a quarterback to throw for 300 yards with a perfect passer rating (158.3). They already did that in Buffalo against Josh Allen in Week 4 when he was 21-of-25 for 320 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also rushed for a touchdown in that 48-20 win.

This makes the 2023 Dolphins the first defense in NFL history to allow multiple quarterbacks to throw for 300 yards with a perfect passer rating.

In fact, this stat is very much a Miami thing as it’s not even the first time Jackson has done it against them. He did it against the 2019 Dolphins, the “Tank for Tua” year, which started his first MVP campaign in Week 1. Of the last 18 times a defense has allowed a game like this since 2007, 6 of them were against the Dolphins. It’s only happened 34 times ever.

With the top seed locked up, the Ravens can choose to rest starters, though that’s a lot of rest before the divisional round. The Dolphins have a division title game on Sunday night against Buffalo, but at least it’s at home.

On the road, you fade these Dolphins every time. As for the Ravens, it might take another one of those Playoff Joe Flacco miracles (and one from Myles Garrett) to put an end to this run they are on. Cleveland is the only team to beat the Ravens in their last 11 games.

Cause you can’t count on Miami to do it in Baltimore. You want to trust Kansas City with that offense right now? That sounds like a couple of Mahomes incompletions on 4th-and-25 waiting to happen. Buffalo? Not even a lock to make the tournament.

But if you’re going to start putting all your adulation on this Baltimore team, then the expectations better be the highest as well. It’s their Super Bowl to lose now.

Bengals at Chiefs: Another Cincinnati Season Ends in Arrowhead

Usually when you talk about the Chiefs and “six field goals” you are talking about Mike Tomlin’s last playoff win. But this peculiar game, which goes down as the 20th game-winning drive for Patrick Mahomes, is another case of the Bizarro 2023 Chiefs doing things we are not used to seeing them do.

Jake Browning looked game early, and the Bengals were up 17-7 while limiting Mahomes’ possessions and shrinking the game, still an excellent gameplan against the Chiefs as they are so mistake prone these days.

But Steve Spagnuolo’s defense again rose to the occasion, stopped the early bleeding, and the Bengals failed to score on their final 7 drives. After an opening-drive touchdown was followed by a Mahomes strip-sack, the Chiefs embarked on an odyssey of drives that saw them settle for 6 field goals over the next 7 drives.

They were still decent-length drives except the last one, but they always stalled out for some reason. MVS had another bad 3rd-down drop to end one drive, then Mahomes made a few too many checkdowns on other 3rd downs that were short of the line to gain. To Andy Reid’s credit, I can’t really argue with the decision to kick on any of them. They were all 4th-and-3 or longer except the last one, and they were all outside of the 5-yard line. The Chiefs just kept chipping away while the Bengals continuously stalled after that hot start.

The game-winning drive was early in the quarter, and the play that defined it was actually late third quarter when Mahomes floated one deep down the right sideline for Rashee Rice, who took it 67 yards to the red zone. Rice (127 yards) and Isiah Pacheco (165 scrimmage yards) were fantastic in a game where Travis Kelce had just 3 catches on 4 targets for 16 yards against what is statistically the worst defense against tight ends this year. Even Noah Gray had 17 yards in this one, so that connection with Kelce is really not clicking going into the playoffs.

But it didn’t matter in this one. The Chiefs had Rice and Pacheco, and they had a defense that sacked Browning 5 times in the last 5:29 of the game. Is that an homage to Joe Burrow? But it was relentless defense at the end, and this time it was Browning instead of Mahomes who was throwing incomplete on 4th-and-27 with the game hanging in the balance with just over a minute left.

This time it was the Chiefs coming out on the winning end of six field goals. Locked into the No. 3 seed and possibly in rest mode next week, I’m not sure if this was the performance they needed to get ready for what expects to be their most challenging postseason run of the Mahomes era.

But it was another Cincinnati season ending at Arrowhead as the Bengals (8-8) were eliminated Sunday. It is another AFC West title for the Chiefs, who stand alone in second place for the longest streak in NFL history with 8 straight division titles.

Cardinals at Eagles: Is It Matt Patricia?

No point in wasting all the narrative talk on a Week 17 recap on New Year’s, but let’s just say the 2023 Eagles could be a good case study in not overlooking a team that loses both coordinators.

I loved Arizona ATS (got up to +12) this week, because I’ve been saying for many weeks how the Eagles aren’t playing like a team with their record should be. I think many of us didn’t know until recently that Matt Patricia was hired to consult the defense this year, and let’s just say he isn’t Jonathan Gannon for them with recent reports of the Eagles’ players wanting to self-scout more on defense. That’s only led to giving up a game-winning touchdown drive to Drew Lock in Seattle, having to fight off a high-scoring comeback attempt from Tyrod Taylor and the Giants on Christmas, and now this pathetic 35-31 loss to Arizona that should go down as the worst loss in the Nick Sirianni-Jalen Hurts era so far.

The Eagles led 21-6 at halftime too, but that was mostly thanks to an incredible 99-yard pick-6 by rookie Sydney Brown. The Cardinals moved the ball extremely well in this game but stalled out on their first-half drives. They wouldn’t be stopped after halftime, going on touchdown drives of 75, 77, 77, and 70 yards. In fact, the only drive in the game by Arizona (8 drives) that didn’t gain at least 43 yards was the 9-yard drive before halftime, and that’s only because it started with 16 seconds left. This was an absolute shredding and one of the best performances by any offense this season, pick-6 withstanding.

That’s also why the Cardinals held the ball for nearly 40 minutes and doubling up the Eagles on that front. James Conner led a great ground attack (221 team yards rushing) and even caught a one-handed touchdown from Kyler Murray, who was 25-of-31 for 232 yards.

The Cardinals tied the game at 28 with 5:26 left, then did a surprise onside that failed with a penalty for lining up offsides. I’m still not convinced that needed to be done. The Philly offense is inevitable with 1 yard to go, but a long field is a different story.

The Cardinals caught some breaks along the way after that like an injury stopping the clock at 5:08. Then after a holding penalty on the Eagles made it 1st-and-20, Philly went incredibly conservative with back-to-back designed runs with Hurts that only gained 1 net yard to make it 3rd-and-19. At that point you’re basically settling for a short play and field goal, which is what they did. It was 31-28 with 2:33 left, and the Cardinals still had 2 timeouts as the Eagles did a terrible job of killing clock.

Arizona faced little resistance on the ensuing drive, and Conner finished it off with a 2-yard touchdown run with 32 seconds left to make it 35-31. Going 75 yards in 32 seconds without a timeout is asking for a miracle from any offense, and the game ended with Hurts’ Hail Mary from the 49 getting intercepted in the end zone.

With the Cowboys winning on Saturday night and expected to beat Washington next week, that means the NFC East is expected to go to Dallas. The Eagles were 10-1 with a win in hand over the 8-3 Cowboys just over a month ago.

What a disastrous slide this is turning out to be, but it wasn’t all that unpredictable to see. Sure, blowing it to Drew Lock with Hurts having a quasi-flu game was rough and unexpected, and Arizona definitely didn’t look like an offense ready to drop 35 points on 8 drives in this one.

But before you think I’m going to bring up the breaks the Eagles needed to beat Dallas, Kansas City and Buffalo in consecutive weeks, keep in mind the Eagles were the team that needed to rally twice against Washington and made Sam Howell look like Steve Young in his prime. Again, that happened twice this year.

Repeating is hard. Sure, the Chiefs just won the AFC West for the 8th year in a row, but good luck on the conference. But in the NFC East, there has not been a repeat division champion since the Eagles did it in 2001-04.

That’s looking like it will continue, and the Eagles have no one to blame but themselves. Seriously, Matt Patricia? Silent Bob with a pencil he stole from Belichick’s office?

Steelers at Seahawks: The Streak Continues

By improving to 9-7, Mike Tomlin has helped the Steelers extend their streak of non-losing seasons to 20 with a surprisingly high-scoring 30-23 win in Seattle. This was more like the performance I thought the Steelers would have in Indianapolis a few weeks ago (but with fewer points), but now they can only hope that Indy loss doesn’t doom them for the playoffs.

It just sums up the annoying thing about Tomlin’s team in that he can beat the Bengals as a home underdog last week, he can win this game as a 4.5-point road underdog when Seattle needed it badly too, but it comes after blowing home games to the 2-win Patriots and Cardinals in the same week. It comes after getting picked apart by Gardner Minshew and backup runners in Indy.

Now it sets up a match where they might lose to Baltimore’s backups, which is going to look bad, or they can beat them, which is taking advantage of a gift that still may not be enough for them to get in the tournament.

But that’s next week. As for this game, well, it presents another conundrum/annoyance as Mason Rudolph has now led the Steelers to back-to-back games with 30 points, something Kenny Pickett hasn’t done twice in his career period. Rudolph played fairly mistake-free football, handled some bad snaps from center well, and gave his receivers, namely George Pickens, chances to make plays. He was 18-of-24 for 274 yards, very good numbers by a Pittsburgh quarterback for the second week in a row.

The Steelers also piled up 468 yards of offense, their most since the 2020 season. I was skeptical of last week because of the big YAC plays from Pickens and the recent ownership of that Cincinnati defense, but this was an NFC opponent and it wasn’t a fluke.

The Steelers also got there because of a strong running game with Najee Harris providing one of his best games ever with 122 yards on the ground, and he could have scored 3 touchdowns if he wanted before going down to end the game.

The offense was legit in this one. The defense did enough to keep Geno Smith and company out of the end zone after halftime. In a 24-17 game in the fourth quarter, the Steelers held the Seahawks to another field goal, which the Steelers matched. Smith played well, but sometimes all it takes is one quick edge pressure to change a season, and this time it wasn’t T.J. Watt who provided it for Pittsburgh. Rookie Nick Herbig made his play of the season with a strip-sack of Smith, and that led to a field goal and essentially set up a less dramatic ending after Pete Carroll called one of the worst challenges ever to waste one of his precious timeouts with 5:49 left.

That mattered because the Seahawks took just too long to score another field goal, making it at 2:01 left, and then not recovering the onside kick at 2:00 to lose out on another clock stoppage. The Steelers came out aggressive with a 24-yard throw to Pickens, then Harris ended it on the ground and did not take the bait to score a touchdown he didn’t need.

Crushing loss for the Seahawks, who may only finish with the same record as last year (9-8) and that’s not always good enough for the tournament. Can a Pittsburgh team playing like this pull off an upset in Buffalo or Miami if they were the No. 7 seed? Yeah, I actually think it’s possible now. But they have to continue with Rudolph at quarterback as he gives them a more aggressive style that brings out more in the wide receivers.

Lose next week with Rudolph and that makes it rather simple to go back to Pickett next year. But if they actually pull this off and get in behind Rudolph? Good luck sorting this mess out for next year (besides shipping Mitch Trubisky out the door). I guess everyone is just waiting for the other shoe to drop with this Rudolph run, but I have to say he looks better than he did in the past.

He looks better than Pickett ever has.

Patriots at Bills: Zapped in Buffalo

Again, let’s get Bill Belichick the hell out of New England and with a team that has a solid quarterback, because he can still coach defense. Josh Allen and the Bills, in a very important game, really struggled to move the ball in this rematch. They basically had one good drive for a touchdown to start the second half, but before that, the Bills were sitting on 20 points thanks to a series of short fields and a pick-six. The 13 offensive points covered a total of just 42 yards.

How does that happen? The generous New England offense had 4 turnovers, including a trio of interceptions thrown by Bailey Zappe. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but it’s possible this was a game Mac Jones would have won. He already had his best game of the year against Buffalo in a 29-25 win, the 29 points being a season-high in scoring for New England.

Zappe did have a nice 18-yard touchdown run, but he dug a big hole early despite getting the gift of a kickoff return touchdown to begin the game. Down 27-21 in the fourth quarter, all New England could do was go 3-and-out from deep in its own end with 5:02 left.

The Bills weren’t about to let a repeat of last time happened, and they finally put together their other good offensive drive of the day by running out the clock by picking up 3 more first downs.

The job’s not finished but the Bills escaped this one, which would have been an embarrassing sweep on the resume for Sean McDermott.

Saints at Buccaneers: Baker and Bowles’ Pumpkin Bowl

Not all is lost for Tampa as a road win against the lowly Panthers (2-14) is all it will take next week to win the NFC South. But you really don’t want to leave it to that, especially when the sting of blowing that game will be even worse and possibly cost Todd Bowles his job, and make the team reconsider if Baker Mayfield is really “the guy” beyond this year.

This team was playing well but laid a total egg at home in this one. When Taysom Hill is catching 22-yard touchdown passes and you’re still sitting on 0 points nearly halfway through the fourth quarter, something went terribly wrong.

Not only did Mayfield get picked twice, but the skill players coughed up a pair of fumbles, including an inexplicable one by Trey Palmer to erase a 54-yard play with 3:36 left. But down 23-7, the game was already in hopeless territory. The Bucs did end up getting it back and scoring quickly but did not recover the onside kick. Also botched the 2-point conversion, so it was still 23-13.

I will say props to Derek Carr for playing a clean game on the road in a must-win situation far as the division title goes. But we’ll just have to see if it’s too late for the Saints as the Bucs get the easier matchup next week with Carolina.

49ers at Commanders: A Little Close for a 17-Point Win

This game was definitely not what I was planning to see. I wanted to see Jacoby Brissett start for Sam Howell, who was abysmal in recent weeks, but Brissett was injured and unable to go. Howell only threw for 169 yards and had a couple of picks in the second half.

But I also thought the Commanders would be getting destroyed by play-action bombs to wide-open guys like they’ve done against other teams all year. Instead, Brock Purdy had an efficient game but was only able to throw 2 touchdown passes, including a nice extended play to Brandon Aiyuk, who finished with 114 yards.

That score made it 27-10 in the fourth quarter and gave the 49ers (-14) the cover, but it was a little uncomfortable there with Chrisitan McCaffrey on the sideline with an injury. The 49ers ran the ball a lot (39 times for 184 yards) and it was successful, but no touchdown for McCarthy this week and he didn’t finish the game, so that’s not great news.

But the 49ers did wrap up the top seed after the Eagles choked.

Rams at Giants: Mason Crosby’s Arthritis Picked a Bad Time to Flare Up

The Rams keep winning and have this nice new collection of skill players that they are thriving with, but they sure do not make it easy in putting games away the last few weeks. After taking a 20-10 lead in the third quarter, they gave up big plays to Tyrod Taylor and the Giants, Matthew Stafford threw a pick, the Rams missed a key extra point after Kyren Williams’ third touchdown run, and the special teams struck again when they gave up a 94-yard punt return touchdown with 3:27 left.

I get why the Giants would go for it after a penalty put the ball at the 1, but Taylor and Saquon Barkley were just not in sync on what should have been an easy pitch and catch for the go-ahead score.

But the conservative Sean McVay played right into another team’s hands in a 26-25 game with two runs and a sack for a quick three-and-out. Taylor is 4-22-1 at comeback opportunities in his career, and this could have been a rare win for him after driving into field goal range.

But after Taylor’s 31-yard scramble, the Giants messed up by playing for the long kick instead of being more aggressive to get closer. They settled for a 54-yard field goal, and 39-year-old kicker Mason Crosby, who only was playing his second game this season with the team, had to come on for that long attempt in the cold air. He’s used to the elements of course from Green Bay, but he was jobless until this month for a reason. That old leg never stood a chance, and he was wide left with 30 seconds left. Game over.

The Rams survived another one and are in the playoffs. Let’s hope they get to go to Detroit for that wild card game, but I don’t believe it’s set in stone yet.

Raiders at Colts: Guess Kansas City was the Vegas Super Bowl

Aidan O’Connell was able to complete some passes after the first quarter this week, including two touchdowns to Davante Adams, who looked like a vintage version of himself with an incredible grab on 4th down with 43 seconds left to make it 23-20.

But that was too little too late as the Raiders were not able to recover the onside kick. The Raiders had their chances in this one and did have 26 first downs on offense (10 more than the Colts). But Gardner Minshew hit a couple of 50-yard passes that were enough to put touchdowns on the board for Indy, who now just has to beat Houston at home for the playoffs this Saturday night.

Titans at Texans: DeMeco Ryans’ Defense Dominates Again

C.J. Stroud returned to the Texans, but the defense stole the show this time. The defense already played very well against the Titans in Week 15’s 19-16 win in overtime where a pick-6 was included in the scoring for Tennessee.

This time the defense was even better, holding the Titans to 3 points and returning a fumble from Will Levis for a touchdown. They knocked Levis out of the game and kept pounding Ryan Tannehill with 5 sacks. It was an all-around strong 26-3 win for the Texans, who will be in Indy for a huge game this Saturday night.

Falcons at Bears: Dome Team in Flurries

Maybe the closest thing to a snow game this regular season, the Falcons froze up in Chicago after a poor start. They trailed 14-0, Younghoe Koo botched two field goals he’d usually make, and it didn’t get much better from there with the Bears dropping 37 points on this defense thanks to some short fields in the second half.

The quarterback situation is officially toast in Atlanta after Tayor Heinicke completed 10-of-29 passes with 3 picks. Desmond Ridder relieved him and also threw a pick. Just an all-around mess that leaves Atlanta with the third-best odds to win the division, and this might soon be the end for Arthur Smith.

Panthers at Jaguars: No Lawrence, No Problem

Trevor Lawrence’s long list of injuries finally led to him missing the first game of his NFL career. But if you thought (like me) that the Panthers would build on last week’s offensive success and maybe steal one against a struggling Jacksonville team, you were way off.

The Panthers were absolutely abysmal on offense in the 26-0 loss as Bryce Young passed for just 112 yards and lost 45 more on sacks. C.J. Beathard was solid enough in Lawrence’s place, and Travis Etienne broke off a 62-yard touchdown run early in the third quarter to make it 16-0 and basically wrap things up there.

The Jaguars are 9-7 just like the Colts and Texans but still have the inside track to win the AFC South.

Packers at Vikings: Sunday Night Blowout

I think Kevin O’Connell screwed up in benching Nate Mullens in favor of rookie Jaren Hall. This was a must-win game to stay alive for the playoffs, and while Mullens is ridiculous with the interceptions, he moves the ball at a good rate. He could have done some damage against a struggling defense like Green Bay’s and on a night where the Vikings really needed the offense.

But Hall had a lousy first half, and by the time O’Connell benched him for Mullens, it was already 23-3, too big a hole to dig out of. Jordan Love had a big night with 4 total touchdowns as the offense basically did whatever it wanted against Minnesota’s defense, making up for that season-low 10 points in Week 8’s loss to the Vikings.

Green Bay (8-8) makes the playoffs with a win over the Bears next week, which is surprisingly a game we won’t see in prime time.

Chargers at Broncos: And No One Cared

It’s hard to take much interest in what the Broncos (now eliminated) are doing after this ridiculous Russell Wilson story came out this week and the team benched him for Jarrett Stidham.

But it’s good to know that Chargering has no limitations. In this one alone, the Chargers fumbled in a 13-6 game to start the fourth quarter (Austin Ekeler this time), had a 50-yard field goal blocked, and couldn’t recover an onside kick that Denver bobbled for a brief moment to end it 16-9. Ho-hum, both teams are literally onto 2024 with the other AFC outcomes eliminating Denver.

Next week: Lots of playoff scenarios, but some of the main ones are can the Packers close at home in Week 18 this year to make the playoffs, can the Steelers beat Baltimore’s backups (?) on Saturday, how does C.J. Stroud handle a quasi-playoff game on the road in prime time, does Dallas have a road choke in Washington for the second year in a row, could the Eagles even make it pay off against the Giants if Dallas did, and why is there more pressure on Buffalo than Miami to win this game to end this regular season from hell?

And next Sunday night is when I go back and review my preseason predictions, which may not be good (thanks for 4 snaps, Aaron Rodgers), but I did pick Baltimore to win the No. 1 seed and Super Bowl.

NFL Week 17 Predictions: All Eyes on Baltimore Edition

Whether it was by luck or skill, the NFL has put together quite a great Week 17 schedule for the last bit of narrative building before next week’s finale is all divisional rematches.

You get an excellent choice for Saturday night between the Lions and Cowboys, two teams still competing for a lot in the NFC. We get to see if Dallas is going to simply revert to looking unbeatable at home after a couple of tough road losses. That won’t do them any good in the playoffs if they have to travel every week, and maybe they could even end up in Detroit, a team that’s clinched the NFC North and is now looking for that first playoff win since beating the 1991 Cowboys. This is a big game for them to show how good they are in this NFC.

I’d prefer the big one in Baltimore to be a 4:25 kickoff, but for a change we get a monster game at 1 p.m. on a Sunday. This one has everything from control of the No. 1 seed to the MVP race to Tyreek Hill also pursuing 2,000 yards. Miami is 2-0 against the Ravens since 2021 thanks in part to beating them deep on passes. There was that wild 42-38 comeback win last year, literally the only time Mike McDaniel has beat a quality road opponent in his career. It was also arguably the best game of Lamar Jackson’s career, and we’ll see if he can come close to anything like that again as his stats are not up to par for the MVP he is favored to win. We’ve seen teams falter immediately after getting praised all year, and everything is turning up Baltimore right now. This game has a chance to clean up so many narratives going into the final week.

Later in the afternoon, you’d normally expect big things from Bengals-Chiefs and that growing rivalry, but it is a little different now that the Bengals don’t have Joe Burrow and are in some trouble for the playoffs. But it is still an important game, and the Chiefs need to show up after last week’s embarrassing effort. If the Chiefs lose this game, the Bengals will have the same 9-7 record and a H2H win to boot. Fortunately for the Chiefs they are playing in the division known for firing coaches and trying to bench a QB at the midseason point after a big win. But this one still has some drama to it. Can Mahomes rebound? Can Travis Kelce step up against the worst defense against tight ends? Is Jake Browning some hidden gem when he’s not playing the Steelers, and can he pull out another 3-point win for the Bengals over the Chiefs? I’m still interested in this one.

This Week’s Articles

NFL 2023 Year in Review: The Unstable Quarterback Position in a Changing League – My epic 7,500 word review of the year that was 2023 for the quarterback position. I touch on all 32 teams and everything from the rash of injuries to Patrick Mahomes’ struggles to the way Tua and Brock Purdy are destroying the discourse, forcing Lamar and Hurts into MVP by team record, the disastrous 2021-22 drafts, the rookie class led by C.J. Stroud, if anyone is actually thriving this year, and what if Joe F’n Flacco has another Super Bowl run in him for the Browns?

NFL Week 17 Predictions

What an odd game on Thursday night. I had Browns winning 20-10 and they about blew that total out of the water by the first quarter. But despite 51 points in the first half, there wasn’t a single touchdown after halftime.

DET-DAL: The spread was originally Dallas -6, which I was liking Detroit for. But the closer it gets to Dallas, the more I think the Cowboys win by a touchdown at home. Should be a good one though, but just keep in mind games with a total over 50 points this year have seen the under go 10-1.

MIA-BUF: For the big one, I think the Ravens are legitimate and the Dolphins are paper tigers. Miami struggles to score against teams like this, and the Ravens have the No. 1 defense. Baltimore avenges the blown lead last year and wins this one.

Bills avoid a NE sweep but it’s hard to trust them to make anything look easy right now. They nearly blew it against Easton Stick last week.

Probably will avoid TEN-HOU. Titans blew a 13-point lead a couple of weeks ago but struggled to score on the Texans. C.J. Stroud is back. Trusting Houston there.

Raiders are showing me something on defense to think they can get after Gardner Minshew and make that one interesting. Need to complete some passes on offense though.

Hedging on CAR-JAX with Trevor Lawrence expected to miss his first NFL game due to injury. C.J. Beathard is hard to trust, Bryce Young is coming off his best game, and the Jaguars are struggling. Should be interesting and I expect the worst given my AFC South futures bet from before the season.

Do the Eagles ever win by 12 points these days? Arizona was the only team to push them in the 4Q during their dominant 8-0 start in 2022. Hoping for a repeat and a James Conner TD run.

Bucs are simply outplaying the Saints and I think they take control of the division with a sweep there.

PIT-SEA is a perfect game for the wild card races as neither team really belongs in the tournament, but someone is getting to 9-7 here. I have a parlay in my Scott’s Seven Picks that sees a game decided by 1-4 points either way.

I don’t know if it will be by exactly 3 points again, but I do think Bengals push the Chiefs in a good game. Still taking KC to pull it out.

Football Gods are chiming in with a middle finger to Sean Payton and the Broncos for the Russell Wilson treatment. I’ll take Easton Stick over Jarrett Stidham.

I really wanted to see 2023 end with Nick Mullens passing for 500 yards, 7 TDs, and 5 INTs against a Joe Barry defense, but I guess we’ll have to settle for Jaren Hall lighting it up instead.

See you in 2024, but first let’s win something big since this damn goofy regular season is almost over.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 16

I debated how I wanted to handle posting this week with the holiday, and I just had to wait for Monday to see what the Ravens and 49ers did. Little did I expect the Chiefs would also blow a game at home to the Raiders, but it was that kind of day and I got it covered along with Sunday’s action.

I’m not recapping the Saturday games below.

I will point out it’s probably not a coincidence that Pittsburgh’s only 2 games with 30 points and only 2 games with over 380 yards since 2022 were all in games against Cincinnati. They just have something on that divisional opponent. But it was good to see a legitimate offense for a change, and Mason Rudolph giving a talented receiver like George Pickens opportunities down the field had a lot to do with it. Do they go back to Kenny Pickett for the Seattle game? Probably so given Tomlin’s past, but we’ll see what happens.

As for Buffalo, let’s just say that 24-22 win against Easton Stick was underwhelming and doesn’t inspire much confidence this team will beat the Patriots, the Dolphins in Miami, and then go on a playoff run. But at least they came back to win this one and Josh Allen’s throw to Khalil Shakir on 3rd-and-4 was possibly a season-saver for Buffalo.

In all, Week 16 had 9 games with a comeback opportunity.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Ravens at 49ers: Game of the Ye-Yeah We Need to Stop Hyping These Up

You almost never get to see the top seeds facing off this late in the regular season. When the Seahawks and Colts met in 2005, the Colts blew that game off for playoff rest by quickly resting starters, so it wasn’t even a real matchup.

This could have been something special, and for a half, it was. Both defenses were giving up plays and making plays. Points were going on the board as Baltimore led 16-12. That’s exactly the kind of half you love to see in a game like this.

The Ravens intercepted Brock Purdy 3 times in the half, but the first one was the worst as he didn’t see the defender late in the red zone. The others were tipped balls that were just unfortunate bounces. Lamar Jackson made some plays but also got the scoring started for San Francisco with a ridiculous safety for a grounding call after he retreated 20 yards to the end zone.

Again, it was a fun half as both teams love to take control early. The Ravens are better known for blowing leads, but Kyle Shanahan-coached teams are not known at all for coming back. That’s why you had to feel some real nervousness at halftime with the 16-12 deficit even if the 49ers survived the 3 interceptions to that margin.

But this game basically was decided in a 100-second span to start the second half. The 49ers gave up a big punt return plus a penalty for a huge loss in field position, and the Ravens turned that short field into a quick touchdown to go up 23-12. On the very next snap from scrimmage, Purdy was hit and intercepted as Patrick Queen took the ball to the San Francisco 9. One snap later, Jackson found Zay Flowers for a 9-yard touchdown.

Boom. Just like that, it was 30-12 and the 49ers needed their biggest comeback since 2011. Time was there and the Ravens have blown worse, but the confidence killer that is a 4-pick parade cannot be understated. The Ravens bypassed a 4th-and-1 from the 1 to take a 25-point lead for a field goal and a 21-point lead, but that was one of the last strategic moments of relevance in the game.

Purdy suffered a stinger in the fourth quarter and Sam Darnold came in and finished the drive for a touchdown. The Ravens went 3-and-out, Darnold was still dealing, and this looked like it might have potential for a wild finish if the 49ers could score another touchdown before the 2-minute warning to make it a 33-26 game. But they royally blew that after getting a 1st-and-goal from the 2 with 2:16 left. Darnold took a huge sack, the 49ers were called for a false start, and he eventually threw a pick on 4th-and-goal from the 17 with 1:00 left. Game over.

Put me on record for thinking a Super Bowl rematch between these teams could potentially be lousy. Granted, the 49ers did for the most part contain Baltimore’s running game outside of one 30-yard scramble by Jackson, who only had 15 yards on his other 6 runs. It also was close to being a 7-point game despite the 49ers being down 4-0 in the turnover department (4-1 if we include Jackson’s grounding safety). You can’t count on a couple of deflected picks always going your way. Ask the Ravens. They had a tipped pick-6 go against them in the fourth quarter in their loss to Cleveland this year.

I just think the 49ers are a front-running team, even more than Baltimore, and they are not good at coming back in games. Those early picks threw things off for Purdy all night and he just never recovered. It also didn’t help that the line, which has a weakness in pass pro, looked overmatched, and that was true even before Trent Williams was injured.

As for the excessive amount of MVP talk coming from this game for Purdy, Lamar, and CMC, I don’t feel like getting into it tonight. Let the last 2 weeks play out, but it just sounds absurd to think this one game should drastically change the odds on what is supposed to be a season-long performance award. Somehow, we have let it devolve into Super Bowl RINGZ logic where it should go to the player who goes undefeated in Weeks 15-18 no matter how they played. Screw that. The problem is this race has been a mess all year, so it’s no surprise things are finishing like this.

The sky isn’t falling for the 49ers, but yeah, they are beatable.

Everyone is this year.

Raiders at Chiefs: Get Cute, Get Cut Up by These Raiders

Yes, I’m sure I liked it better when the Chiefs were losing 1-score games due to dropped passes or stupid penalties before Patrick Mahomes eventually threw incomplete on a 4th-and-forever to end things.

This was something far worse. This was probably the weirdest, ugliest game of the Mahomes era. You could see it early when the Chiefs got out of the first quarter with minus-18 yards of offense, the worst by any NFL team since 2004.

This game could not have been any different from the Week 12 matchup between these teams, a game with no turnovers and where the Chiefs put the ball in the hands of their best weapons (Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice).

Well, the trio of Rice, Kelce, and Pacheco combined on a 74-yard touchdown drive to get the Chiefs on the board after a trick play got Pacheco in the end zone on a 12-yard run. Admittedly, that play had good design. But the Chiefs have a history of running cutesy trick plays against the Raiders, an opponent that is usually among the most outmatched on their schedule, and it can come off as pretty lame like last year when they did their “Snowglobe” play with everyone spinning around before the snap.

On the next snap from scrimmage for the offense after the Pacheco touchdown, they tried a direct snap to him where he then pitched the ball to Mahomes, who couldn’t gather it and the result was a fumble recovered for a touchdown. Brutal and unnecessary backed up in your own end.

To make matters worse, Mahomes floated a lazy pass late to the sideline to Justin Watson on the next snap, and that was intercepted for a touchdown to give the Vegas defense two touchdown returns in 7 seconds to make it 17-7.

That sequence basically lost the game as the passing game took the rest of the day off for the Raiders. Aidan O’Connell had 9 early completions (all on a field goal drive) but did not complete a pass in the final 3 quarters (0-for-10). I’ve never seen anything like it with a team completing all of its passes on one drive in a game. Supposedly it’s the first time since 2000 a team won a game without completing a pass after the first quarter, but I think that’s because the dataset only went back that far. I can’t imagine any other game since the merger has done this.

That was going to be Kansas City’s ticket to pulling off another comeback, but it was just not their day. Harrison Butker missed a 36-yard field goal to end the half, a big miss. Pacheco’s helmet came off twice and he got kicked in the head the second time. He went to get checked on a table on the sideline and the table collapsed on him. The Chiefs looked like a poverty franchise on Christmas.

The Chiefs only touched the ball 4 times in the second half, and that was partly their own fault as they wasted 13 minutes driving only to turn the ball over on downs in Vegas territory.

By the time the offense finally got another drive in the end zone with 2:42 left to make it 20-14, they were basically in 3-and-out or bust mode for the defense. You would think the defense would sell out to stop the run, but the Raiders had no problem finding running lanes for Zamir White, and he finished the Chiefs off with runs of 6, 43, and 15 yards to finish with 145 yards.

Mahomes ended up leading the Chiefs with 10 runs for 53 yards. He set that Next Gen Stats era record in Super Bowl 55 when he had 497 scramble yards before throwing or taking a sack against Tampa. Earlier that season, I believe he was a few yards short of that in a 40-32 loss to the Raiders, a loss where the Chiefs were an 11-point home favorite like they were in this game.

I haven’t seen the number from Next Gen Stats yet, but I have to believe the scramble yards had to be even higher in this game. He probably topped 500 as they had him running for his life. Maybe it wasn’t always necessary, but it sure looked like a quarterback out of confidence with an offensive line that was outmatched against the Raiders.

Hats off to Antonio Pierce for adding some real attitude to this defense. The offense barely contributed to the win, but the defense definitely got after it.

As for the Chiefs, I’m not sure what you can say anymore. This one looked like a failure in coaching to prepare the team for a physical game. They tried to play it cute and make nice highlights at home, and the Raiders just punched them in the mouth, and they couldn’t recover in time. It really might have turned out differently without that fumble touchdown. I just don’t get the call there backed up in your own end. Run a normal play to Pacheco. Throw the ball to Kelce down the field. Get Richie James more involved as he actually looked good. MVS is worthless.

Just do something differently because this is clearly not working, and now you can forget about the playoffs running through Arrowhead. But the reality is the Chiefs will be lucky to even get out of the wild card round at this rate.

Giants at Eagles: They Never Make It Easy

I’d be lying if I said I paid much attention to this game. It was 20-3 at halftime, so it looked like the Eagles were going to finally blow a team out, they got Tommy DeVito whacked (benched for Tyrod Taylor), and Boston Scott should have been cruising to a late touchdown to hit some fun bets.

But that didn’t happen. Scott fumbled a kickoff to start the third, setting up a short field touchdown for the Giants, and they later scored a pick-6 to make it 20-18. But the Eagles had much better offensive flow with Dallas Goedert finally used properly, a good ground attack, and Jalen Hurts still automatic on those sneaks.

But that defense is still unreliable, and this was a 1-score game after they allowed a 69-yard touchdown pass to Darius Slayton. Tyrod had to go 75 yards in 70 seconds and get a 2-point conversion just to force overtime. But he did get to the Philadelphia 26 before holding the ball forever on the final snap before finally throwing a game-ending interception in the end zone to help the Eagles escape with the 33-25 win.

It might not be a game that sells anyone on the Eagles being the top team in the NFC again, but it keeps them in line to win the division.

Cowboys at Dolphins: Paper Tiger Bowl Goes to Miami

These teams are really a perfect matchup for each other as they only bring their A game if the opponent isn’t an A-caliber team, and where the game is played matters too. Yeah, they can drop 45 points on the Commanders, and Tyreek Hill does this cool crouching thing now, but look what happens when you put a real opponent in front of them.

The Cowboys and Dolphins came into Week 16 with the most points scored this year and yet it was a struggle for both to reach 20 points in this game.

Dallas is going to finish this regular season with an 0-4 record on the road against winning teams (1-7 in its last 8 such games going back to 2022), a bad sign for its postseason prospects as a likely wild card team again.

I don’t want to say Dallas lost this game on the opening drive, but it is so hard to make up for wasting half a quarter if you fumble at the 1-yard line. Dallas only had 8 possessions in the game and that was one of them. Just an awful turnover, getting cute with a handoff to the fullback who had 6 touches all season before they tried to give him 4 on the opening drive. It was first down too. Give it to an experienced ball carrier like Tony Pollard. It once again led to Dak Prescott not establishing a real rhythm for the game as he had just 6 completions more than 35 minutes into the game.

This team simply cannot control games on the road against the good teams. We have to hear Dak’s “yeah, here we go!” as the loudest person in the stadium when the Cowboys are at home, but on the road, this offense shrinks, and the defense doesn’t impress either.

Tua Tagovailoa’s quick release didn’t leave many opportunities for the Dallas defense. They got a little lucky too as you can see the skill players were a bit banged up for Miami, including Jaylen Waddle who only had a 50-yard catch on the opening drive. Raheem Mostert left injured at one point, and we know Hill was just coming back from the ankle injury.

Beyond the fumble on the opening drive that was the only turnover in the game, Dallas also lost this one at the end of each half. Miami scored a touchdown before halftime and managed the clock perfectly on the final drive to make sure the Cowboys had no time left after taking the lead.

There was a lot of settling for field goals in this one, and the Dolphins did find a way to blow a 9-point lead in the fourth quarter. It looked like Dallas might fail in the red zone again in a 19-13 game, but they got their choice of defensive pass interference flags on the Dolphins on a 4th-and-4, which felt like a make-up call for the missed grab of CeeDee Lamb’s pants on an earlier down.

Two plays after an awful sack took the ball from the 1 to the 8, Prescott found Brandin Cooks for a nice touchdown. It wound up being Dallas’ final offensive snap, and somehow it was only Cooks’ second catch of the day. Again, how does this offense justify Cooks and Michael Gallup combining for 18 yards? Is targeting 11 players really necessary when you can’t even get your WR2 and WR3 the ball properly?

But props for Miami for taking over with 3:27 left in a 20-19 game and making sure all of the clock was burned before the field goal despite Dallas having four clock stoppages. The running game helped make sure that happened, but not before Hill converted a 3rd-and-3 with a simple YAC play for 10 yards. That play was really the game for Dallas as  Miami likely would have been kicking the field goal with a stop there.

But no stop came, because the Cowboys are just not a serious team on the road in games like this. I can say the same thing about Miami, but this team will have its shot to prove otherwise in Baltimore next week with the No. 1 seed up for grabs.

Lions at Vikings: Party Like It’s 1993

It had been over 40 years (1982) since the Lions went into a season as the outright favorite in their division. It was 30 years (1993) since the last division title for Detroit. With a 30-24 win in Minnesota, the 2023 Lions lived up to the expectations and claimed the NFC North with their 11th win of the season.

The win was largely a celebration of recent draft successes with Amon-Ra St. Brown going over 100 yards and scoring a touchdown, a pair of touchdowns for rookie back Jahmyr Gibbs, and the defense intercepted Nick Mullens four times, including a game-clincher in the final minute with Minnesota 30 yards away from the lead.

It wasn’t the easiest win for the Lions. Justin Jefferson’s 28-yard catch on a 3rd-and-27 is another great addition to his highlight reel, and it looked like it could lead to the go-ahead touchdown. But the constant downfield passing of Mullens, who passed for 411 yards, eventually stung the Vikings again in the worst moment as his pick from the Detroit 30 with 49 seconds left ended the game.

The Vikings (7-8) are in a rough spot after yet another close loss. The defense did a good job in only allowing one 20-yard play to the Lions, but Detroit was methodical and effective in this one. By comparison, the Vikings were volatile and living on the edge all day as every Mullens dropback feels like a turnover opportunity.

But Detroit’s division title is the main story here, and the team still has some games left to earn a top seed and improve its chances to do some damage in the playoffs. Imagine if they renewed their 1950s rivalry with the Cleveland Browns by getting to the first Super Bowl for both teams. Speaking of which…

Browns at Texans: Amari Cooper’s Monster Game

Who knew the key to unlocking Kevin Stefanski’s offense was to add Joe Flacco just a few weeks shy of his 39th birthday? What Cleveland is doing with Flacco continues to defy logic. He just had his third game in a row with at least 42 passes, 311 yards, multiple touchdowns, and a win for the 10-5 Browns.

Not only are they winning with Flacco, but they are leaning on him offensively. The Browns’ backfield only had 27 carries for 58 yards in Houston. Amari Cooper also had arguably the game of his career with 11 catches for 265 yards (franchise record), 2 touchdowns, and a 2-point conversion because the Browns lost their kicker and kept going for 2 in this 36-22 win.

Cooper was sensational from the first snap of the game when he hauled in a 53-yard bomb, a sign of things to come. Meanwhile, Houston’s offense looked lost without C.J. Stroud, and Davis Mills ended up replacing starter Case Keenum in a comeback effort that never got too deep. The Browns led 36-7 at one point.

I kind of joked earlier in the week about Flacco going into Canton if he gets a ring out of this season, but this is some really interesting stuff in Cleveland. You have a great defense that can win it all, you have a team that’s already beat the Ravens and 49ers, the current No. 1 seeds, and now you have a quarterback who already has led one of the most improbable Super Bowl runs in NFL history.

And let me repeat, they already beat the 49ers and Ravens with marginal quarterback play in those games earlier this season, so that silences the schedule argument for what they’ve done with Flacco the last month.

This could end horribly in the wild card round for all we know, but if the Browns keep playing like this, they are a team we have to take seriously. And wouldn’t that be a hell of a lot more fun and easier to do with this Flacco story than if this was Deshaun Watson thriving?

Jaguars at Buccaneers: Pirate Ship vs. Sinking Ship

Well, I was very wrong about this one. I thought the Jaguars, who ended up being favored after it was reported Trevor Lawrence would start, would end their 3-game losing streak by winning the turnover battle and throwing some cold water on this Baker Mayfield hot streak, which was largely fueled against the sisters of the poor in the NFC.

But as it turns out, Lawrence was the turnover machine in this game and probably should have been sidelined earlier than he was before yet another injury (shoulder) was added to his 2023 season. Lawrence turned it over 3 times and the Buccaneers turned them all into touchdown drives to build a 27-0 lead early in the third quarter.

The Bucs didn’t even run the ball effectively (36 carries for 70 yards), but it didn’t matter as Mayfield avoided turnovers again and Mike Evans had 2 more touchdowns. By the time Lawrence was finally taken out, the game was already decided. C.J. Beathard mopped up and Calvin Ridley caught a pair of touchdowns after it was 30-0.

Tampa is thriving as the playoffs inch closer and the Jaguars (8-7) are in danger of making it two years in a row where the AFC South leader completely falls apart. The Titans were 7-3 last year before losing out, which the Jaguars benefitted from, and Jacksonville was 8-3 after winning in Houston just a month ago.

Look at them now.

Seahawks at Titans: Just What Pete Carroll’s Heart Needed, Another Nail-Biter

The Titans are a tough out, especially at home, and you knew Derrick Henry would step up after he had 10 yards on 20 touches last week, a historically-bad game. I liked the Titans in this game because of Seattle’s short week and long trip after an emotional win, possible rust for Geno Smith coming back, and Ryan Tannehill starting actually felt like a possible advantage instead of a downgrade from rookie Will Levis, who has problems sustaining drives.

Well, Henry no doubt showed up with 99 scrimmage yards, a touchdown run, and an ugly touchdown pass that still worked. Tannehill didn’t do a lot and took 6 sacks, several of a very untimely fashion, but he didn’t have any turnovers.

It looked like the Titans were going to steal this one after a 15-play, 75-yard touchdown drive consumed almost 9 minutes and was the perfect answer to D.K. Metcalf’s impressive touchdown catch to start the quarter. The Titans led 17-13 and basically left Seattle with one last drive.

This has not been Geno Smith’s spot in his career, but he ended up leading his third fourth-quarter comeback win of 2023 after he came into the season with 5 comebacks in his whole career. He kept the game alive with a 3rd-and-14 conversion to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 18 yards, the rookie making a huge play once again. Even if he didn’t catch it, defensive holding on the Titans would have brought a fresh set of downs.

A 22-yard flag for defensive pass interference put the ball at the 5, and Smith found rarely used tight end Colby Parkinson for the touchdown with 57 seconds left. Tannehill had enough time with one timeout to set up a field goal, but starting the drive with a sack was a killer, then he ended up taking another one from the 50. I swear quarterbacks have given up on spiking the ball this year, because instead of doing that, the Titans ran another play and the receiver’s momentum was stopped in bounds, allowing the clock to run out on the Titans.

I still think this Seattle team, the current No. 7 seed with an 8-7 record, is a waste of a playoff spot this year. But when you look at the list of teams they are competing with (Vikings, Falcons, Packers, and Saints), maybe they are the best option to get there. And Detroit will want no part of them in a 7-2 matchup should that happen given the results of the last two meetings in Detroit.

Colts at Falcons: The Letdown

I guess the Colts were due for an offensive letdown, but you wouldn’t have guessed this game after they took the opening kickoff and drove 75 yards for a touchdown. But that would be the only trip to the end zone as the offensive line was dominated with Gardner Minshew taking 6 sacks, and Jonathan Taylor returned this week but only had 43 yards on 18 carries.

With Michael Pittman Jr. out, you see the limitations in this receiving corps that relied so heavily on him. While the Colts struggled, the Falcons with Tayler Heinicke at quarterback finally utilized their best players as Kyle Pitts had a 24-yard touchdown and Bijan Robinson had 122 yards from scrimmage.

Just as importantly, the Falcons avoided any turnovers this week, snapping a 19-game streak for the Colts for games with at least 1 takeaway. No takeaways, no run game, no Pittman catches, and just not enough points for Indy in a 29-10 loss that hurts their playoff chances as another one of the 8-7 teams in the AFC.

Commanders at Jets: Frankly, Both Coaches Should Go

There were reports swirling before the game that Jets coach Robert Saleh was safe for 2024. He probably should be given the Aaron Rodgers situation this year, but man did he almost blow a 20-point lead right after that report that certainly would justify moving on with someone else.

Of course, Ron Rivera seems like he’s got a foot out the door already on the Washington side. They couldn’t have started this game much worse than they did. A tipped pick, a blocked punt, a muffed kickoff, and a bad punt led to the Jets leading 17-0 not even 6 minutes into the game.

Are you kidding me? But maybe that’s also a reason why there was a major comeback attempt here, because it’s not like the Jets were earning the lead with long drives or impressive offense behind quarterback Trevor Siemian.

But for the second week in a row, it was a quarterback change for Washington that sparked a near epic comeback with Jacoby Brissett replacing Sam Howell. It was an awful game for Howell, who finished 6-of-22 for 56 yards and 2 interceptions. Brissett sparked the offense as he did against the Rams last week, and he was 10-of-13 for 100 yards and a touchdown.

Brissett led an 83-yard touchdown drive that finally erased the 20-point lead for the Commanders with 4:52 left, but the job was not finished. By throwing 3 straight incompletions after a 1st-and-20 situation, Siemian exhibited some “suck quickly” strategy that Tom Brady once pulled off against the 2013 Saints. Had Siemian completed some passes there and used more clock before ultimately turning the ball back to the Commanders, this one could have ended differently.

But the Jets had all their timeouts to get the ball back, and Washington conceded with three straight basic runs and a punt. The Jets had the ball back 26 seconds after giving it up. All it took was 2 first downs to get into range for Greg Zuerlein, who was good enough on a 54-yard field goal with 5 seconds left to take a 30-28 lead. The Commanders couldn’t even get their lateral going to end it.

I had the Commanders (+3) as my upset pick and for the Jets to not crack 20 points against the worst scoring defense in the league. That start just killed this one for Washington, and even after the effort to come back, they still blew it by being so conservative and playing right into the Jets’ hands.

Both teams cleaning house wouldn’t be a bad idea.

Packers at Panthers: Is It Hope for Bryce Young or Impending Pink Slip for Joe Barry?

Finally, a Week 16 game I can say I nailed right down to Bryce Young having his best game of the season, the Panthers (+4) covering, and Green Bay still getting the close win on the road.

We know the Panthers struggle in the fourth quarter, but they erased a 14-point deficit with relative ease to tie this game at 30. Even after the Packers regained the lead on a field goal and left Young with 19 seconds, he still found two open receivers for 44 more yards and came up one second shy of getting the spike off in time to set up the game-tying field goal for overtime. Just one more second would have been enough for a 49-yard field goal by Eddy Pineiro, but he probably would have missed it given he already missed two extra points in the game.

If you’re a Green Bay fan, you’re satisfied with the performance of Jordan Love and the offense in a balanced attack and game where they put up 33 on the road. But you have to be pulling your hair out over defensive coordinator Joe Barry, who basically lives on dropped passes and turnovers to not give up 30 or 40 points every week. Young had his first 300-yard passing game after throwing for 180 looked like a struggle the last month for him. He joins Tommy DeVito as a struggling rookie to have his brightest moment against this defense in the last month.

I can’t wait to see what this defense does against Nick Mullens next week. At least he is charitable with turnovers, but he might have a 500-yard game indoors.

But if you’re a Carolina fan, you have to at least be encouraged that Young took advantage of a favorable matchup and made some good throws and led a productive offense. Some glimmers of hope in such a bleak season from the Panthers.

Cardinals at Bears: Tank You Very Much

It was 21-0 Chicago halfway through the second quarter before the Cardinals finally woke up. The good news is a 21-0 lead for Justin Fields and Matt Eberflus is not the same as a 21-0 lead for a normal team.

Sure enough, the Cardinals got back in it after Fields threw a horrible interception in the red zone with a 24-10 lead with 10:22 left. It was on first down too, so he could have literally ran the ball three times, kicked a field goal, and the Bears would have had a 3-score lead with 8 minutes left. Just terrible lack of awareness but also par for the course for this quarterback and team.

Kyler Murray turned that into a touchdown drive, the 2-point conversion failed, but the Bears went 3-and-out. So, we had a 24-16 game with 4:21 left, but Murray needed to drive 91 yards. The drive stalled at the Arizona 27, but instead of punting on 4th-and-6 with 3:00 left, the Cardinals went for it. Murray threw deep, the receiver fell down, no flag necessary, and that was basically game over right there with the Bears taking over in field goal range. Even they couldn’t screw this one up and they added a field goal to take a 27-16 lead with 1:02 left. Forget about it at that point.

Was that a subtle way of tanking the game for the now 3-12 Cardinals? Keep in mind Chicago is a team with heavy draft capital thanks to the Carolina trade involving last year’s No. 1 pick. It just seemed like such an asinine call with four clock stoppages left for Arizona, and they were facing one of the worst fourth-quarter closing time teams in NFL history. Any team should be punting in that situation, because if you don’t get the 4th-and-6 (chances are you won’t), it’s game over with the opponent in field goal range.

Just thought that was an odd call with some possible ulterior motives in an otherwise forgettable game.

Patriots at Broncos: Goodnight, Sweet Prince Payton

We’ll see what happens the rest of the way, but there is a good chance Mike Tomlin’s Steelers and Sean Payton’s Broncos will watch the playoffs on TV with the rest of us after losing as big home favorites to Bill Belichick’s Patriots with Bailey Zappe at quarterback.

Go figure, an awful matchup on paper lived up to its low expectations for one half with Denver leading 7-3, and then a real game broke out and it ended up being one of the most entertaining island games (or halves) of the year.

The third quarter was just a comedy of errors by Denver with Russell Wilson taking 4 sacks, Marvin Mims muffing a kick return for a New England touchdown just 8 seconds after a Mike Gesicki touchdown catch from Zappe.

All of a sudden, the Broncos were down 23-7 going into the fourth quarter of a must-win home game they were a 7.5-point favorite for. To their credit, they pulled off the fabled “8+8” comeback to tie the game with 2:53 left. Throw in a quick 3-and-out by New England combined with a bad penalty leading to a re-kick that cost the team 19 yards, and it suddenly looked like we’d get a Denver win in regulation with the ball at their 39 and 1:42 left.

I’m not going to crucify starting a 2-minute drill with a pass to the running back as so many successes in NFL history have done just that. But a 3-yard loss to Samaje Perine set the tone for the rest of the drive, and it was another 3-and-out. The Patriots got it back with 58 seconds left at their 19 and decided to run it before Denver made the likely mistake of calling timeout.

Look, I get you can do great things in limited time, but this game was tied. New England looked content for overtime, and this might have even been the rare game where going on defense first in OT would have been the right call. Make them earn it on a long field.

But by Payton calling timeout, I think Belichick called his bluff and the Patriots snuck in a great, unexpected throw down the field on 3rd-and-3 that was caught for 27 yards by DeVante Parker. Should have let them play for OT, Sean.

After a couple of short completions and a spike, the Patriots were ready to try a 56-yard field goal for the win. Rookie kicker Chad Ryland is someone I have repeatedly said is a sign of how bad player evaluation has gotten in New England under Belichick the GM’s watch. This kicker has sucked all year and he even missed an extra point and a 47-yard field goal in this game. You might recall he missed a 35-yard field goal against the Giants that would have sent the game to overtime instead of a 10-7 loss.

Lower stakes on this one since the game would have gone to overtime with a miss, and he wasn’t expected to make it. But maybe that helped him, because he nailed it right down the middle from 56 yards out to win this one. Wilson tried a Hail Mary from his own 27, but no one was getting that ball to the end zone.

The Broncos (7-8) are pretty screwed for the playoffs at this point, but there’s a reason genuinely good teams almost never start 1-5.

The Patriots really don’t benefit at all from the win, but it is amusing to know that Belichick can still get one over Tomlin and Payton with Zappe as his guy. That also goes down as Zappe’s first game-winning drive, a rarity in New England these days.

Truly a Christmas miracle.

Next week: Week 17 presents another opportunity with a special Saturday night game for the Cowboys to show they can beat a good team, and at least this one is at home. Also a big chance for the Lions to flex some muscles and stay in the race for that No. 1 or No. 2 seed.

Speaking of top two seeds, Miami at Baltimore is a huge game for the AFC, and that’s in an unusual 1 p.m. spot. Ravens need to avenge that blown 21-point lead last year. Bucs can put the clamps on the Saints for the NFC South. The 49ers should score at least 49 points against Washington. Pittsburgh-Seattle has some wild card implications for both conferences, and no, I don’t envy Mike Tomin’s quarterback decision for that one. Packers at Vikings on Sunday night to end 2023, a year to which I say good riddance to.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 14

Week 14 in the NFL was a lot to take in. Or a little if you were caught watching either of the two games that were scoreless at halftime. Seriously, we go 4 years without a scoreless first half and get two in one afternoon? That second one almost went the distance to 0-0 in regulation but thank God for Nick Mullens (said no one ever).

The Cowboys blew out the Eagles, who lost back-to-back games against their main NFC contenders by 20 points. Sounds pretty 2022 Vikings to me.

The Bills won another game in Kansas City after an egregious offside penalty on the offense wiped out one of the coolest, game-winning type of plays you’ll ever see. But that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a dumb penalty, Kansas City.

Did offense feel worse than usual this weekend? We still have a MNF doubleheader that does not look good, but there has yet to be a quarterback to post a 75.0 QBR this week. Most weeks have multiple players in the 80s and 90s. The highest was Matthew Stafford (73.4) in a loss in Baltimore. This is so unusual that it hasn’t happened in any week of the regular season since 2006, the first season we have QBR data for. Maybe Tua or Jordan Love puts an end to that tonight, but Monday night shenanigans, the MetLife playing surface, eh, we’ll see.

There were 7 games with a comeback opportunity this week, though for the second time this season, no team came back to win from 10 points down. The Steelers and Chiefs almost did that, but again, we’re seeing arguably the darkest patches of the Mike Tomlin and Andy Reid eras in Pittsburgh and Kansas City. Losing back-to-back home games to 2-10 teams is brutal (and historic), and the Chiefs are on a 2-4 slide and just lost wire-to-wire in back-to-back games for the first time with Mahomes at quarterback.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Chiefs: Toney, Toney, You Gotta Go

Another week, another Kansas City loss where the Chiefs gave up two early touchdowns, lost the turnover battle, a receiver royally screwed up a lead-changing play, and Patrick Mahomes’ last gasp on 4th-and-long fell incomplete.

Then there’s the latest officiating controversy.

But I don’t think it was that controversial. The irony of it was Kadarius Toney scored the touchdown and it would have been his most memorable play had the schmuck not lined up offsides.

Offensive offsides, who even does that? But before that ending, it was another game where the Chiefs played disappointing, mistake-filled football. They let the Bills dominate early with passes to their running back (James Cook) while Mahomes seemingly can’t throw a screen to CEH without disaster happening like an opening-drive interception in Buffalo territory.

Rashee Rice provided the obligatory fumble late in the third quarter when the Chiefs were driving in a 17-14 game. They did tie the game in the fourth quarter, but a quick 3-and-out with a chance to take the lead wasn’t good, then Josh Allen continued to show why he’s been so successful in Arrowhead with a go-ahead drive for a field goal.

The only problem with that was a total mismanagement of the clock, and you would think Buffalo more than any team would be observant of the clock against the Chiefs. They are 13 seconds away from going 4-0 in this building since 2021. The Bills had a chance to set up the field goal as the final play, but Allen threw 3 low-percentage balls to receivers that all fell incomplete and stopped the clock with the Chiefs keeping 2 timeouts. It made no sense. Even the last throw before the 2-minute warning was barely caught for a 1 yard to run clock.

So, Mahomes had a full 1:54 in a 20-17 game, which is an eternity for him to get a go-ahead touchdown, let alone a field goal. But four plays into a good looking drive, it happened. Mahomes found Travis Kelce over the middle and he somehow had the stones to lateral the ball across the field to Toney, who went the final 24 yards for what should have been a huge go-ahead touchdown and possibly the game-winning score to end Buffalo’s season.

It will go down as an all-time great play that never counted. It was aesthetically pleasing, in a big moment, risky as hell, and a huge reward. But it’s all for naught cause the biggest clown on the roster was lined up offsides.

Is that going to be called 100% of the time on the offense? No, I don’t think so. Is it ever called on the offense? Apparently 11 times this year, so less than once a week. I understand the argument that it was inconsequential to the play, but I also think the strong reaction from the Chiefs, namely Mahomes and Andy Reid, is way overblown. Just don’t line up offsides and it’s not a penalty. How hard is that? Does a veteran really need a warning for this late in the fourth quarter? I could see if he was repeatedly doing it in the game, then the officials should inform him of that. But there’s just no excuse to line up in the wrong spot on a play where the clock wasn’t even running.

Like the other Kansas City drives this year, they fell apart after the big play was not made. Think of the Toney drop against Detroit that could have easily set up a game-winning field goal, the MVS dropped touchdown against the Eagles, the no-call for DPI on MVS against the Packers last week, and now this offsides wiping out a touchdown.

It’s like the Chiefs get so frustrated from these plays that they forget to finish the drive. Namely, the offensive line forgets as the protection turning to dog shit has a lot to do with these drives fizzing out a couple plays later. Mahomes had to throw away passes under pressure, and just like that, it was 4th-and-15. Here we go again.

Mahomes’ arm was hit just as he threw the ball and it came out funny with no chance of ever being caught. Another game over after Mahomes threw incomplete on a 4th-and-10+. That’s happened in all 5 losses this year. It happened in exactly one Kansas City game in 2018-22 and that was Super Bowl 55 with a lopsided score.

The Chiefs are 8-5 and barely hanging onto the No. 3 seed right now. It is looking likely that they will have to play a road playoff game this year. I guess it is possible for the Chiefs to win out (12-5), then hope Miami loses multiple games to Cowboys/Ravens/Bills to finish with a No. 2 seed or better. Then they’d have to hope No. 1 (Baltimore) chokes in the divisional round, which isn’t impossible of course. But it’s not looking good. At this point, the Chiefs might get shut down by New England and lose to Bailey Zappe next week. Jake Browning with the Bengals is a possibility too.

Mahomes’ strong reaction to the ending was weird to me. It almost felt like he was letting out years of frustration with calls like this, maybe even going back to the Dee Ford offsides in the 2018 AFC Championship Game loss, another rare offsides call that had nothing to do with the play at hand. Hard to think of any team in between 2018-23 with bigger offsides penalties than the Chiefs with these two. Then with the way last week’s game ended in Green Bay, it’s just been a frustrating season for Kansas City and I think he chose to take it out on the refs instead of strangling Toney, who really needs to be cut. He provides no value and has almost single-handedly cost them games against the Lions and Bills this year.

But not knocking out the Bills (7-6) when you had a chance could prove fatal. Imagine if this propels Buffalo to make the playoffs and this ends up being a 7/2 or 6/3 wild card matchup. That would not be good for the Chiefs, who struggle with Buffalo as much as any opponent.

But we’ll see how things go from here and if Buffalo can build from this with a tough remaining schedule. The Chiefs only have 4 games left to improve, but it feels like both sides of the ball are declining right now.

Trading away Tyreek Hill and trading for Kadarius Toney is epic team mismanagement. That’s almost as bad as getting Trent Richardson for Andrew Luck in Indy when he literally needed any other good player besides a running back.

This is the first time since 2017 where the Chiefs failed to have a lead in back-to-back games. Those were the ugly losses to the Giants (12-9 in overtime) and Buffalo (16-10). Do you know what that slide led to? Andy Reid gave up play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, who is the OC now in 2023.

Might need a new plan here, because this isn’t working. I made this prediction before Week 7 when the Chiefs were 5-1, and it was tongue-in-cheek at the time. But my goodness, this is where the Chiefs are seemingly every week now. A game-winning play is botched, the offensive line falls apart, and there’s Mahomes throwing a miracle ball on 4th-and-long to end the game.

This is who Kansas City is in 2023 and I don’t see it changing this time. And that is why the frustration is boiling over on the field now.

Eagles at Cowboys: Another NFC Stomping

The big NFC round robin is complete now, and the 49ers come out looking like the best team after stomping the Cowboys (42-10) and Eagles (42-19) this year. The Cowboys and Eagles split their matchups with Philadelphia winning 28-23 at home and then Dallas returning the favor with this 20-point win.

So, only 1-of-4 games ended up being a competitive 60-minute game. But this is what I was saying about the Eagles the last few weeks. They rely on winning close games this year while the 49ers and Eagles blow teams out. They are your classic “win big, lose close” teams, and they just blew the Eagles out by 20 points in back-to-back weeks.

The crazy thing with this game is that the Eagles never even scored a touchdown on offense. Their only touchdown was Jalen Carter returning a fumble of Dak Prescott 42 yards for a score in the third quarter, the last time this looked like it might be a game.

Prescott said as much after the game that he didn’t have his best night, and he certainly didn’t. The Cowboys left plenty of points on the field, and we did at least see how awesome their new kicker is as Brandon Aubrey improved to 30-for-30 on the season at field goals with makes from 60, 59, 50, and 45 yards, making it look easy in the process. Yes, this has “misses first time all year in a crucial playoff moment” written all over it, but he was money in this game, becoming the first kicker to make from 59 and 60 in the same game.

But Prescott did not hurt his MVP case. In fact, he’s the outright leader now after he threw for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns, notching a 12th-striaght home game with at least 27 points scored (third-longest streak in NFL history).

Dallas was in control and moving the ball well from the opening drive. The Eagles were too sloppy with the ball. Jalen Hurts, who didn’t even pass for 200 yards again, lost a fumble on his team’s opening drive. A.J. Brown had a nice game, but he also fumbled on the team’s opening drive of the second half at midfield, down 24-6.

Down 27-13 late in the third quarter, Hurts threw for 3 yards on 3rd-and-11, then a 1-yard completion to DeVonta Smith on 4th-and-8. Those are failed completions. Finally, any chance of an improbable 17-point comeback was snuffed out when Smith fumbled a completion in the red zone with 6:38 left. Game over. The Eagles’ top 3 skill players all lost fumbles in this one.

But as I said last week, the 49ers and Cowboys could have beat the Eagles by 50 points each in these games, and there’s still a good chance Philadelphia gets the No. 1 seed, the bye week, and gets to host the rematch with these teams, who are now all 10-3. The Eagles don’t play any good teams the rest of the way. The Cowboys have to go to Buffalo and Miami the next two weeks, tough road games against contenders. The 49ers have to host the Ravens on Christmas, a tough game.

But we can save talk about future games for down the road. It’s just an eyesore on Dallas’ resume to lose that game to Arizona as a 13-point favorite, because that could be the one that costs them a No. 1 seed. Strong performance here by the Cowboys, and maybe the back-to-back beatings puts some doubt in the Philadelphia locker room.

But chances are the Cowboys (and 49ers) will have to do it again to Philly in January.

Rams at Ravens: Unexpected Hero in Unexpected Overtime Classic

Lamar Jackson is now 19-1 against the NFC in his career, but this may have been the toughest win to earn yet. I really did not see this coming as the Rams were a 7.5-point road underdog, and we’ve seen the Ravens destroy some NFC teams at home this year like the Lions (38-6) and Seahawks (37-3). My thought on Lamar against the NFC is that those teams just aren’t familiar with playing him yet and it takes some experience as he is such a unique talent.

But the Rams scored on 4-of-5 drives to start the game, had no turnovers on the road, and Matthew Stafford showed up for this one. Both quarterbacks had 3 touchdown passes and Stafford was only 6 yards away from matching Lamar with a 300-yard passing game. Jackson also rushed for 70 yards.

It was a tight, enjoyable back-and-forth game with plenty of points – exactly the kind of experience we almost never get in 2023. The Rams took a lead on a safety at one point when a bad snap was kicked out of bounds by Jackson to avoid a touchdown going on the board. But the defense made a stop, and Jackson put Justin Tucker in range for a 33-yard field goal to regain the lead with 11:17 to play in a 23-22 game.

A couple drives later, Stafford threw a touchdown, but the Rams failed on the 2-point conversion, leading 28-23 with 4:41 left. Not many comeback drives in situations like this in Lamar’s career, but he pulled this one off just when it looked like things were falling apart at the end with a 3rd-and-17. Zay Flowers was left open for a 21-yard touchdown with 1:16 left, and the Ravens made the crucial 2-point conversion this time to take a 31-28 lead.

Stafford has plenty of experience doing this, and a big play to Cooper Kupp moved the ball to the Baltimore 22. But the Rams were not able to get any more than 4 yards from there, so they settled for a game-tying field goal and overtime.

The Ravens went 3-and-out in overtime, which we don’t penalize enough for the team that goes first on offense, because now all the Rams had to do was get a field goal to win. But the Rams also went 3-and-out, and Sean McVay let an inexcusable delay of game penalty happen on the drive to make it 3rd-and-9. You get timeouts in overtime; you should use them there to avoid that mess.

The Rams punted, and while you usually don’t expect much on these plays anymore, the Ravens made them pay with Tylan Wallace returning the punt 76 yards for a touchdown. It almost had a Steve Young vs. Vikings quality to it with Wallace stumbling after 3 broken tackles, but he housed it for only the 4th game-winning punt return touchdown in overtime history:

And that is the shocking way the Ravens moved to 10-3 and the Rams dropped to 6-7. A much better game than you could have expected from this one. This is the second non-offensive game-winning score of the year. The first was T.J. Watt’s fumble return touchdown from Deshaun Watson in Week 2 in Browns-Steelers.

Vikings at Raiders: Almost 0-0

I thought 6-0 last week in New England in decent weather was bad, but 3-0 indoors in Vegas?

At some point, I stopped being mad at the lack of scoring and was rooting for history to be made with a scoreless overtime tie, which has never happened in NFL history. It may have happened without a quarterback change by the Vikings, which led to the game-winning drive as Nick Mullens finally strung together some completions after Joshua Dobbs could not.

We were really close on this one:

  • The last scoreless tie in the NFL was in 1943 between the Giants and Lions before overtime existed.
  • Vikings-Raiders is only the 11th game since 1940 with no more than 3 combined points.
  • It is the NFL’s first 3-0 game since the 2007 Steelers beat Miami in the game where the punt stuck in the ground. Pittsburgh’s score came with 17 seconds left, so this game was the longest an NFL game had gone scoreless since this one in 2007.
  • Almost 30 years to the date, the Jets and Redskins played a 3-0 game on 12/11/1993 with the Jets scoring in the first quarter. That makes Vikings-Raiders and Dolphins-Steelers the only games with fewer than 6 combined points in the salary cap era.

So, we didn’t get the record, but we can say this is the 2nd-longest game to last scoreless since 1978.

Given the shitshow the Vikings put on against the Bears their last timeout, Kevin O’Connell has to explain why things are broken right now, and Dobbs may be out of the starting lineup next week now that a division title is within reach.

Justin Jefferson returned from his hamstring injury in this game, but he unfortunately didn’t last long after taking a nasty shot to the back. But the Vikings still have weapons. Certainly enough to do better than 9 punts on 11 possessions. The game only had 1 missed field goal (by Minnesota) and the Raiders turned it over 3 times in the second half, including a big fumble in the red zone by Hunter Renfrow, and Aidan O’Connell was immediately intercepted after Greg Joseph’s 36-yard field goal provided the only points at the 2-minute warning.

I’m not sure Mullens is the answer going forward, but it doesn’t look like Dobbs is. I’m also not sure you can hire an interim coach who loses a home game indoors 3-0 like Antonio Pierce just did.

And oh joy, both teams will be in island games this week with the Raiders playing the Chargers on Thursday night and the Vikings on Saturday against the Bengals.

Seahawks at 49ers: Drew Locked Up Some Millions

Not much was expected from this game with Drew Lock starting for an injured Geno Smith. The spread moved above 14 points, but I did like Seattle to cover that as divisional rematches can be weird.

This one was a little weird as Lock played a competent game and the Seahawks were within striking distance. But the 49ers averaged 9.9 yards per play on their way to 527 yards as the studs were not being stopped on this day. Christian McCaffrey kicked it off with a 72-yard run on the first snap, though he was taken out for a breather and never scored a touchdown despite having odds in the -350 range to do so this week. Ouch.

Deebo Samuel had another huge game with 149 yards and a touchdown. Brandon Aiyuk (126 yards) was also over 100 yards, and George Kittle caught a 44-yard touchdown, because of course he did. Where was that on Thanksgiving when I needed 40 yards from him to win $2,500?

But anyways, it was the Kittle touchdown two snaps into the final quarter that shifted everything as Seattle was only down 21-16 before that score. Lock was then intercepted twice, and the 49ers ran out the clock for another win that all but wraps up this NFC West race.

But Lock probably made himself a few million in the process as a competent start against what looks like the best team in the league could keep him around for years to come in a league starved for quarterbacks.

Yet it is Mr. Irrelevant who continues to break football minds as he had another big game with 368 yards on just 27 attempts. It wasn’t the big YAC plays this week like last week in Philadelphia too as Purdy dropped some balls right in the basket in big moments. He’s legitimately very good in running this offense, and while a lot of quarterbacks may be in his shoes, you look around at the 0-0 scores on Sunday and the other offenses that struggled to find the end zone at all like the Eagles, and you have to say Purdy is a remarkable story.

Lions at Bears: No 12-Point Comeback This Time

I think you have to be worried if you’re a Detroit fan that this thing is about to spiral out of control. No, they still haven’t lost back-to-back games yet this year, but losing out and losing the division title to Minnesota is now a real possibility.

The Lions needed the miracle comeback of the season to erase a 12-point deficit against the Bears at home just a few weeks ago. This performance was even worse in Chicago as the Bears did what they did on offense again, but the Lions had no strong finish this time. In fact, things only got worse with the Lions going scoreless on their 7 possessions in the second half, including a fumble, two failed 4th downs, and an interception on their last 4 drives.

It was an aborted snap by Detroit late in the third quarter that led to a short field for the Bears, who turned it into a touchdown and 25-13 lead. Fittingly, it was another 12-point comeback opportunity, but Jared Goff just didn’t have it in the elements this day. The running game was solid with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs both going over 60 yards, but when it came time for a 4th-and-1 conversion, Gibbs was stuffed in the backfield for a 4-yard loss.

The Lions were taking their time on the ensuing drive in a 28-13 game, and Goff eventually threw incomplete on 4th-and-17 with 5:16 left. More pressure on him on the next drive led to an interception on 4th-and-24 with 2:31 left to seal it.

Detroit played much better in the first matchup when turnovers put them in a hole. This time, the Bears more or less controlled play from the opening kickoff, something we have rarely ever seen in the Matt Eberflus era.

The Lions have now allowed at least 26 points in all 5 games since the bye week. Without a home win against Denver next week, this is going to get very dicey with games against the Vikings and a trip to Dallas left.

Colts at Bengals: Nice System in Cincinnati…

I hope Jake Browning’s thumb is good because this is getting really interesting in Cincinnati. For the second start in a row, Browning completed at least 75% of his passes with at least 275 yards in a win against another playoff contender in the AFC.

He didn’t take any sacks against the Colts, and his only real mistake was a pick-six that was a receiver error as he handed the ball to the defender on a silver platter. That also proved to be Indy’s final score of the game as the offense only mustered one touchdown drive in a 34-14 loss. It was only the second time all year the Colts failed to score 20 points in a game under Shane Steichen.

They picked a bad time for it with the Bengals in that wild card mix. But Browning clearly won this battle of backups, and Gardner Minshew may have even stayed in the game despite a possible concussion early in the game. The Colts failed to score on their final 5 possessions.

The Colts (7-6) might be in real trouble when you consider how games with the Steelers, their next opponent, usually go. Not only do you have to contend with Minshew’s mistakes, but the running game has essentially gone nowhere in 4-of-5 games.

The Bengals (7-6) are not finished as they have stumbled onto something to work with at the quarterback position in Browning.

Jaguars at Browns: Lawrence Returns But So Has Joe Flacco

Trevor Lawrence has still never missed a start due to injury in his NFL career, but sometimes you wonder if it’s not for the best if a player takes a week to rest. Lawrence barely averaged 5.0 yards per attempt as he threw 50 passes, including 3 interceptions, a 31-27 loss in Cleveland that felt like a 5-hour game.

Cleveland led wire-to-wire with Joe Flacco stepping up to throw for 311 yards and 3 touchdowns, simultaneously making you want to praise Kevin Stefanski for finding quality play in another quarterback not named Deshaun Watson while also questioning just how good that Jake Browning performance was on Monday night if the Jags are playing defense like this. Seriously, David Njoku was left wide open several times for big plays in this one.

But the Jaguars continued to struggle running the ball effectively, and the turnovers were hard to overcome. The game went on so long in part because Cleveland also turned it over 3 times. Each team had 16 possessions (kneeldowns excluded).

The big turning point was the second play of the 4th quarter when Lawrence was picked on a deep ball on 3rd-and-1 in a 21-14 game. I guess the Jaguars can’t even trust Travis Etienne to get a yard when they needed it most. Flacco used that short 48-yard field for another touchdown drive. But the Jaguars kept scoring and applying pressure, even coming up short on a 4th-and-3 with 3:30 left. By the time Jacksonville scored with 1:33 left, there was only time for an onside kick in a 31-27 final. They didn’t recover and the game was over.

Fortunately for the Jaguars (8-5), the Colts and Texans lost too. But the Browns are gaining confidence at 8-5 and just may have a quarterback answer in Flacco if you can believe it in 2023.

Buccaneers at Falcons: Baker Mayfield Brings NFC South Race to a Standstill

The Bucs were 1-15 when allowing 20 points under Todd Bowles since 2022, but make that 2-15 and give Baker Mayfield just as many wins doing it as Tom Brady had last year. The Buccaneers (6-7) are currently leading the NFC South as the Falcons and Saints are also 6-7 for the league’s worst division around.

But Baker did pull out a little Brady in this one as the Falcons were generally the better team, but Younghoe Koo missed two field goals he usually makes, and the Tampa defense was opportunistic in intercepting a screen pass and getting a safety to lead 19-10.

But the Falcons rallied to take a late 25-22 lead. Mayfield’s accuracy and decision making looked woeful on the ensuing drive as he looked like he was playing for a touchdown with under 30 seconds left instead of calmly taking the easy plays in a 3-point game with enough time left. But he finally got on track with a huge 3rd-and-10 conversion to Chris Godwin for 32 yards, then two plays later, he found Cade Otton for an 11-yard touchdown with 31 seconds left to take a 29-25 lead.

The Falcons did a solid job using their 2 timeouts to get into range for the win at the Tampa Bay 31 with 4 seconds left. But that last throw absolutely had to be in the end zone on the final play, and for some reason, Desmond Ridder threw short, completing a pass to Drake London for 28 yards to the 3-yard line to end the game. Didn’t understand that decision at all as Ridder had time to throw a little deeper to the end zone.

The Falcons and Bucs have split with each team winning on the road this year. Who is the best team out of Saints, Buccaneers, and Falcons? Damn if I know. The winner of the division should just be a sacrificial lamb to the NFC East runner-up.

Broncos at Chargers: Did We Just Lose Justin Herbert?

That would be something if this turned out to be the final game of the Brandon Staley-Justin Herbert era for the Chargers. Herbert left with a fractured index finger on his throwing hand, which is obviously not good.

It was already shaping up to be a rough start for Herbert, who had a pick at the line that led to a 3-yard touchdown run by Javonte Williams, his first score on the ground in 2 whole years.

Almost fittingly, Herbert was injured on a 4th-and-2 attempt in the second quarter as Staley bypassed a 47-yard field goal. Easton Stick, a 5th-round pick by the team way back in 2019, replaced him for the rest of the game. That was a tough assignment as the Chargers finished 1-for-6 on 4th down thanks to going 0-for-12 on 3rd down.

The Chargers (5-8) are toast, and the Broncos (7-6) are only a game behind the Chiefs (8-5) in the AFC West if you can believe that.

Texans at Jets: The Most Unexpected 300-Yard Passing Game

What a strange game. It always felt like a trap for the Texans, but who could have imagined 11 straight punts and a knee to go to halftime scoreless, then for Zach Wilson to throw for 301 yards in a 24-6 win?

The weather wasn’t as windy as some expected, so it wasn’t the issue. Not when Wilson was able to pass for 301 yards and multiple touchdowns in his first start in weeks. C.J. Stroud, the rookie who entered Week 14 leading the league in passing yards, only passed for 91 yards before he left the game injured in the fourth quarter.

But this was a case of not having your top two wide receivers and tight end while facing a tough pass defense on the road. The Texans already lost Tank Dell for the year, tight end Dalton Schutlz was still out, and Nico Collins left the game early with an injury. Stroud had his hands full and the Texans just did not deliver this afternoon.

But Wilson had his way with the defense as he completed 27-of-36 passes with Garrett Wilson going over 100 yards, and Randall Cobb even caught a touchdown.

Amusingly, the Jets tacked on 3 field goals in the fourth quarter on drives that all lost yardage as they were set up in Houston territory after 4th down stops by the defense. But the damage was done before that point.

Panthers at Saints: The NFC South Is Really This Bad

The passing offense was absolutely grotesque well into the second half of this game:

Derek Carr ended up finishing with 119 yards on 18 completions, taking him out of record territory, but it was still a putrid showing against the NFL’s only 1-win team. Bryce Young also struggled mightily again as he is regressing instead of showing improvement in his rookie season.

The Saints were almost going to win this one with 7 points on offense and the other 7 from a blocked punt return touchdown. But the defense stopped Carolina on a 4th-and-1 in a 14-6 game, then Carr hit a 44-yard completion that was more yardage than he had in the first 50 minutes combined. That drive was finished with a 7-yard touchdown to Chris Olave, then Jimmy Graham later caught a touchdown to blow it open 28-6.

We can talk about the Saints’ struggles on offense, but the Panthers are beyond putrid. There was already that Week 4 game against Minnesota where the Panthers scored 6 points (two field goals) despite holding the ball for 38:29. They came close to that again in this one with 34:50 in time of possession but only a pair of field goals to show for it.

Not only is Young failing to flash signs of improvement, but he’s f’n boring to watch too. Things are a real mess in Carolina right now and it is unlikely a good coach is going to want to take this job in 2024.

Next week: Are we really going to start the week with Easton Stick and Aidan O’Connell? A Saturday triple-header with no must-see games? It has to be Dallas at Buffalo to carry Sunday, because even SNF (Ravens-Jaguars) has lost some luster with the Jaguars on a losing streak. They flexed KC-NE out of MNF for Eagles-Seahawks, but I thought that was a mistake even before this KC losing streak. I much rather see if the Chiefs can avoid losing to Bailey Zappe than to watch another game with fading Seattle (and Philly for that matter) right now.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 10

Like I said on Saturday, if you ignore the island game mess, the NFL had a solid Week 10 lined up. Sunday proved to be one of the best days of the season so far with a few big upsets in the AFC North and a handful of games where teams kept exchanging scores before someone kicked a field goal with no time left.

The NFL may not have sent its best to Germany again, nor did it bother using the flex option on Sunday night so we didn’t have to see the Jets fail to reach the end zone again. But with the Chiefs, Eagles, and Dolphins all on a bye week, it is hard to argue with Week 10’s quality. Sometimes the bad weeks on paper tun out to be some of the best played weeks.

In all, we had 10 out of 13 games (MNF pending) with a comeback opportunity. While there were technically only two lead changes in the fourth quarter in Week 10, and one of those didn’t happen until the clock showed 0:00, it was a fantastic week for watching teams match scores in the fourth quarter.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Lions at Chargers: Game of the Week or Year?

Ladies and gentlemen, the Chargers are back. This was the Week 10 game I had circled, because I knew we were not going to see the Chargers cruise to an easy win like they had in prime time the last two weeks against the Bears and Jets. We were going to see the Chargers in their element: late afternoon, Justin Herbert trying to bail out Brandon Staley’s defense in a 7-point game in the fourth quarter with a wild finish.

But this was not your usual case of Chargering, because the Chargers actually never led in this game despite the 41-38 final and the Los Angeles offense scoring five straight touchdown drives of at least 68 yards to end the game.

Last season, we saw the Lions tie an NFL record by scoring 45 points in a wire-to-wire loss at home against Seattle in a 48-45 game. This time, the Lions won wire-to-wire despite allowing 38 points. It is only the 20th time that has happened in NFL history.

For the Chargers, I think it was the kind of game we’ve come to expect from them. Herbert played great, he only had one turnover, no sacks, and he threw for 323 yards and 4 touchdowns with a dominant Keenan Allen game (11 catches for 175 yards, 2 touchdowns).

For the Lions, I think it showed the great potential of this offense at full strength. David Montgomery returned and had a 75-yard rushing touchdown to go along with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs rushing for 77 yards and two touchdowns. Jared Goff was very good with 333 yards and no turnovers, and Amon-Ra St. Brown was dominant with 8 catches for 156 yards and a touchdown. Detroit had 533 yards of offense.

If you wanted to nitpick, the game does show some concern that the Lions may be a bit of a paper tiger (or paper lion) on defense. They won’t be able to pressure the top offenses and keep them down on the scoreboard like they’ll need to if they’re going to win a Super Bowl. The Chargers looked great for the most part on offense, and Detroit’s offense had to be spectacular to pull out the win.

Even on the game-winning drive, which started with 3:34 left, we saw the Lions bypass a 44-yard field goal on 4th-and-2 to make sure they could set up the field goal as the final snap. Hard to believe that happened in a tied game, but Dan Campbell has the reputation he does for a reason. Still, you think if he trust his defense he’d consider the field goal with 1:47 left to take the lead. But if you are that concerned about Herbert going for a touchdown, then I understand the call.

Goff delivered the 6-yard gain to Sam LaPorta, which I greatly appreciated, and the win was there. Glad to see our Chargers back on brand.

I would argue the Chargers have played the two most entertaining games of the 2023 season, and they were both home losses to the Dolphins and Lions. I’d probably give the Miami game the edge since it had multiple lead changes and the highlights were a bit stronger. It also ended on a defensive stop, a foreign concept to Staley.

Browns at Ravens: Vintage 2022 Baltimore Football

I just said a couple of weeks ago how no one can stay on top for long this season before getting knocked down a peg. The Ravens were getting a lot of hype, understandably, this week before they had their chance to sweep the Browns and put more of a chokehold on their AFC North lead.

But we have already watched this team beat itself against the Colts and Steelers, shades of what they did often in 2022 even before Lamar Jackson was lost to injury. Sure enough, despite leading at home 14-0, 17-3, 24-9, then 31-17 in the fourth quarter, the Ravens did it again in a shocking 33-31 loss to the Browns, who trailed for all but 40 seconds in the game. They literally threw a pick-six on the second play from scrimmage and trailed until the field goal went through with no time left for their only lead of the game. Hard to top that. The Ravens are just 1-3 in close games this year.

To be fair, there was some fool’s gold feeling about the leads in this game. The pick-6 was a fantastic defensive play, but it was still a tipped ball that bounced the right way. The Ravens also got a 39-yard touchdown run from their new toy Keaton Mitchell, but he somehow finished the game with 3 carries for 34 yards. None of Baltimore’s other 23 runs gained more than 9 yards, and Cleveland had the better ground game with 36 carries for 178 yards.

Baltimore was up 14-0 and Jackson was only 3-of-3 for 30 yards. If Deshaun Watson could just calm down from his horrible start, then they were going to have a chance as the running game was finding traction, and the Ravens have a recent history of melting down after blowing a handful of multi-score leads last year, including 21 points to Miami and 17 points to Buffalo.

The Browns were able to block a 55-yard field goal by Justin Tucker, which is no easy feat, and they intercepted Jackson late in the half, but didn’t get any points out of it after a curious decision to let backup P.J. Walker throw a Hail Mary instead of attempting a 60-yard field goal.

Odell Beckham Jr. showed vintage speed on a 40-yard touchdown catch to start the third quarter, but the Browns started to get in a groove and matched it with their own touchdown. But after Myles Garrett sacked Jackson on a 3rd-and-17, the Browns seemed to commit a fatal mistake with a muffed punt, giving the Ravens the ball back at the Cleveland 12. Despite being that close to the end zone, the Ravens used 3:17 on the clock to go those 12 yards for a touchdown and take a 31-17 lead with 11:34 left. It was a ghastly drive, but it was effective in taking off more time all thanks to penalties on both teams, including a Cleveland penalty that wiped out another Jackson pick.

You normally think the game should be over here, but the Browns drove for another 75-yard touchdown, then the bounce finally went their way as they got their own tipped Jackson pass at the line that was returned for a touchdown with 8:16 left. But instead of tying the game, kicker Dustin Hopkins missed the extra point wide left. Cleveland still trailed 31-30.

The offense burned a little clock, but with the group out of sync, no strong running game to rely on, and an inexcusable delay of game penalty, the Ravens soon punted it back with 4:55 left.

Cleveland’s drive was not pretty, and it had to recover a Watson strip-sack, but it was effective in getting the job done. Watson had a big 16-yard scramble into Baltimore territory, then Jerome Ford’s 12-yard run made a field goal likely. The Browns were able to set it up as the last play and Hopkins redeemed himself with a 40-yard field goal to win it 33-31 to send the Browns to 6-3 and right on the heels of the Ravens (7-3).

It has to be frustrating for Baltimore fans when it looked just like one of 2022’s losses. No lead feels truly safe with this team, and that was not the case in Baltimore for a solid two decades.

As for Cleveland, going into games like this with Watson at quarterback can’t feel good. He did enough to salvage this one, but that defense and running game are going to have to be on point for this to work in January.

But it is getting more likely that the Browns will be in that playoff mix. They could even win the division now that they secured a split with the Ravens, who lost another they should have won.

Texans at Bengals: Chapter 1 in a Future AFC Rivalry?

I think the 2019-22 seasons were largely about figuring out who would rival Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC in the 2020s. We needed new power dynamics in the conference like we used to have with teams like the Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Chargers, and some key appearances from the Ravens and Broncos.

Some contenders emerged like the Bills and Bengals, but we might be able to throw Houston into the mix soon if C.J. Stroud is going to be like this.

It was even a step back from his record-setting performance against Tampa Bay last week, but Stroud still managed to impress with another 356 passing yards in leading Houston to 30 points, and it could have been a lot more with that if the Texans protected the ball better. The Texans had 544 yards of offense, but between Stroud losing 2 fumbles early and throwing a shocking interception with a 10-point lead with 3:33 left, Houston had to sweat this one out after dominating for much of the game.

But even with all the turnovers, I want to point out that Stroud produced these big numbers as a 6.5-point road underdog against a defense that has been limiting great offenses the last few years. He also did it without No. 1 wide receiver Nico Collins, who was inactive, a story I didn’t even know about until the game was almost over. Yet, you heard all week how Tee Higgins was going to be out for this game for Cincinnati, and Ja’Marr Chase was questionable, even though he played and had 124 yards and a touchdown.

But the Texans didn’t sweat the Collins injury, and Stroud threw for 172 yards on 7-of-8 passing to Noah Brown, a forgotten receiver from Dallas who was best known for confusing viewers if CeeDee Lamb just added to his stats. Brown was going to be at best the No. 4 wideout in this offense behind Collins, rookie Tank Dell, veteran slot Robert Woods, and maybe even No. 5 behind John Metchie, a second-round pick in 2022. But Brown had 153 yards against Tampa Bay last week and 172 in this game with Stroud.

That’s why I’m saying if Stroud’s going to be legitimate like this, then we could have a new layer to this AFC. Imagine what things can look like if he gets a defense at some point soon under coach DeMeco Ryans.

There were some miscues in this game that he will hopefully learn from. After Joe Burrow threw a horrible interception in the end zone, his second in the fourth quarter, with 3:53 left, this looked like game over with Houston leading 27-17. But three plays later, Stroud threw his own horrible pick that was nearly returned for a touchdown in a spot where he could have ended the game. It was only his second interception of the season, but like I always say, this Cincinnati defense gets the timely ones like that.

Joe Mixon capped off a 4-yard touchdown drive and it was 27-24 with plenty of time. Houston even helped with another 3-and-out after Stroud was unable to put it away on a 3rd-and-3.

Believe it or not in Week 10, but this was the first time all season the Bengals had a 4QC/GWD opportunity on offense. It only took two plays for the Bengals to be deep in the red zone after Tyler Boyd took a short pass and ran 64 yards with it. But Burrow was sacked, then Boyd dropped a go-ahead score on third-and-goal. Not the most egregious drop, and not a definite game winner, but it definitely hurt, and it was a play he usually makes.

The Bengals had to settle for a 31-yard game-tying field goal and hope for overtime. But it was a bad day for defenses on the field late. Stroud was able to shake off his mistakes and found two more 20-yard plays on the day to set up his new backup kicker, Matt Ammendola, for a 38-yard field goal to win the game with no time left.

Stroud just posted back-to-back games with 350 passing yards and a game-winning drive. That’s as many such games as Tony Romo and Russell Wilson have in their careers, and it’s more than the one career game for Burrow, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, and Lamar Jackson – the other AFC contenders who have been floated as Mahomes’ rival in the last 5 years. If you’re curious, Mahomes’ number for this is 4 games.

Granted, this 350-yard game with a game-winning drive for Stroud could have been a 300-yard game with a 10-point win or 27-24 win had the rookie converted either of his first two 3rd-down opportunities. But the Bengals have fooled better quarterbacks into bigger mistakes before, and Stroud overcame all of that for a huge win as Houston (5-4) secures a key tiebreaker over the Bengals (5-4), who are in trouble again with a trip to Baltimore on a short week coming up this Thursday night.

Now granted, it was only a couple of weeks ago when Houston lost 15-13 to Carolina, the only win for the Panthers this season. It was also only in 2017 when I said Deshaun Watson was on pace for the greatest rookie quarterback season ever, and we know how that eventually turned out.

But after closing one of the darkest chapters in Texans history, the fans must be thrilled about this first chapter for Stroud.

49ers at Jaguars: Super Dud

My only comfortable read on this game was to take the under 45, because I wasn’t feeling very confident in the offenses going up against these defenses. In the end, it was one of the most lopsided games of the year as the 49ers rolled them 34-3. They even tried to get Christian McCaffrey a late touchdown to try extending his streak to 18 games, but it ended on a day where basically everyone else scored, including Deebo Samuel in his return game.

The 49ers were struggling with turnovers and the Jacksonville defense was tied for the league lead in takeaways. But the 49ers won the turnover battle 4-0, and that had a lot to do with the blowout score. Trevor Lawrence was picked twice and coughed up a fumble, and Christian Kirk had a bad fumble inside the 10 in the third quarter that sucked all the life out of this one at 20-3. The 49ers drove 81 yards the other way to make it 27-3 with Samuel’s 23-yard touchdown run and it was a wrap.

The bye week served the 49ers (6-3) well as this is still the most talented team in the league. The Jaguars (6-3) were outclassed, and I think there are legitimate concerns for why this offense isn’t producing more. The situational stats are lousy on the season, Calvin Ridley has not had a big impact, and Lawrence is not taking the next step forward. They look like they have a hard ceiling on where they can go right now.

Saints at Vikings: Dobbs Delivers in Starting Debut

The Vikings have gone from 1-4 to the longest active winning streak at 5 games after another one-possession win over the Saints in the first start for Joshua Dobbs. He has picked up the offense quickly and was excellent in this game with 268 yards, no interceptions, and he ran for 44 yards and another touchdown, showing off his mobility that has been foreign to this Minnesota offense for a long time.

But the Vikings did almost collapse from a 27-3 lead in the second half. An ineffective Derek Carr was injured and replaced by Jameis Winston, who led a pair of touchdown drives to make it 27-19. With a couple of 2-point conversion runs by Alvin Kamara, we almost were witnesses to the fabled 8+8+8 comeback from a 24-point deficit.

But the skillset of Winston that makes him dangerous to face is the same that makes him dangerous to his own team’s wellbeing. He likes to be aggressive with the ball and throw deep, and that burned him with a pair of interceptions late in the game that he really didn’t need to force because of the ample time left.

Winston had over 3 minutes left at midfield on the first one, and almost a full 2 minutes left in Minnesota territory on the last one, which came on a first down too. By the time the Vikings got the ball back, there was only time for a Hail Mary, which fell incomplete to end the game.

The Saints (5-5) continue to struggle while the Vikings are thriving even without Justin Jefferson for the last month and now without Kirk Cousins for the last two games. But Kevin O’Connell is getting to show that he knows how to coach offense, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison have stepped up, and Dobbs is doing very well.

This can still be a playoff team. Hell, they could win the division if they were to sweep Detroit, but one game at a time.

Commanders at Seahawks: Receiving Backs on the Loose

The closer we got to Sunday, the more I liked this to be a shootout with the No. 1 wide receivers dominating these secondaries. D.K. Metcalf finished with 98 yards, but it was improbably long touchdowns on short throws to running backs that put the only touchdowns on the board early in what was a field goal fest into the fourth quarter. Washington’s Brian Robinson had a 51-yard touchdown catch to start the game and Kenneth Walker created a 64-yard scoring play in the third quarter.

Eventually, the game got to where I imagined with both quarterbacks throwing for over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns. Like some other games on Sunday, it was back-and-forth scoring drives until the end with the teams combining to score on the final 5 drives.

Sam Howell led Washington on two game-tying touchdown drives. The last came with 52 seconds left, and I think that left Seattle a little too much time (with 2 timeouts left) to drive for a game-winning field goal had the Commanders gone for a 2-point conversion to try to take a lead. As we saw anyway in a tied game, Seattle was able to set up Jason Myers for a 43-yard field goal at the buzzer after two big catches by Metcalf for 44 yards.

In the end, it was about the game you’d expect between these teams. The Seahawks are 6-3 despite still being outscored by 1 point on the season. The Commanders (4-6) throw the ball more than anyone and basically have the record they deserve with an ugly loss to the Giants cancelling out an unlikely 18-point comeback win in Denver.

Falcons at Cardinals: Return of the Jedi (The One as Tall as Yoda)

On the 11-month anniversary of his torn ACL, Kyler Murray made his return to the field. Without seeing him in so long, you forget how little he is and how unique his running looks when he’s scooting around the field.

Murray’s return was a success as he led the Cardinals to a 25-23 win over a spiraling Atlanta team that has now lost to three straight quarterbacks making their season debut for their team (rookie Will Levis in Tennessee, Joshua Dobbs in Minnesota, and now Murray).

Meanwhile, the Falcons were getting nothing out of Taylor Heinicke in this game, who had 15 pass attempts and 55 passing yards in the fourth quarter before he was knocked out with an injury and replaced by Desmond Ridder. But if you are going to throw so little, why even bench Ridder in the first place?

Ridder sparked the offense in his return. After he was stopped on a 4th-down run earlier in the quarter, Ridder finished his second drive with a 9-yard touchdown run to give the Falcons a 23-22 lead with 2:33 left. But the Falcons missed the crucial 2-point conversion as Ridder was incomplete for Drake London, who bailed out Ridder with an incredible catch earlier in the drive.

Murray keyed his team’s game-winning drive with a 13-yard scramble on a 3rd-and-10, then hit his tight end Trey McBride for a 33-yard gain, the longest in the game. In fact, this game had 4 plays that gained 19+ yards and McBride had 3 of them.

That was enough for the Cardinals to set up a 23-yard field goal as the final snap for Matt Prater, who nailed it for a 25-23 win. Muray was 19-of-32 for 249 yards, a pick, and he rushed for 33 yards and a touchdown.

I think the Falcons (4-6) are a bit screwed as they head into their bye. I’d go back to Ridder for the next game but not sure it’ll matter at this point. As for the Cardinals (2-8), they are in a weird position. The return of Murray probably means they are not going to get the No. 1 pick, but do they still settle for a different rookie quarterback in 2024, or do they try to make this work with Murray?

I guess it depends on how well he plays the rest of the year. After some of the recent draft duds with these college quarterbacks, sometimes newer isn’t any better.

Packers at Steelers: Mostly on Brand

When this game started with three straight touchdown drives, I felt bamboozled again. These are two of the worst offenses in the league, especially in the first half of games. But apparently, Matt Canada calling the game from the field at least produces a good start.

It’s the rest of the game where the offense doesn’t do much as Kenny Pickett only passed for 126 yards in this one. I was not impressed (again). Pickett’s 24.3 QBR was the lowest of any quarterback to win in Week 10. He got away with an awful pick on the second touchdown drive after the defender just failed to get his feet in bounds at the sideline.

The good news is this was one of the best run blocking performances by the Steelers in the last 5 years. They had 205 yards on the ground. Keeping veteran Dan Moore at his usual left tackle spot and putting first-round rookie Broderick Jones at right tackle has helped improve the line.

But the Steelers had to grind for this one again as Jordan Love was gambling and getting away with it for three quarters. The Packers even started the fourth quarter with a trick play that looked like it would have worked, but the receiver dropped the ball in a 20-19 game. Actually, they ruled it a fumble that the Packers recovered, which is what the team would have wanted ruled earlier when it sure looked like the Steelers had a lateral that Green Bay recovered. But it was ruled an incomplete pass.

Down 23-19, Love was picked in the end zone after Patrick Peterson tipped a ball to Keanu Neal that was intended for Christian Watson. Almost like the Seattle play at the end of the 2013 NFC Championship Game against San Francisco. Love had some success in this game, but he was 2/7 for 23 yards and 2 interceptions when targeting Watson, who I want to start calling Cheesehead Claypool after this disappearing act following a good rookie year. Similar to what Chase Claypool did in Pittsburgh in 2020-21.

But Love had a chance with 59 seconds left to drive 81 yards for the win. He got 46 of them right away with a big play to Jayden Reed, the second-round rookie who continues to improve. It looked like the Steelers might blow this one, but just like last week when they stopped the Titans with a game-ending pick in a 4-point win as a 3-point home favorite, they did the exact same thing here with a game-ending pick in the red zone off Love.

The Packers have now gone 7 straight games without scoring 21 points, their longest streak since a 10-game streak in 1990-91.

The Steelers have been outgained in every game this season and are still 6-3, which has never been done before. In fact, the Steelers are the 107th team since 1940 to be outgained in at least 9 straight games at any time of year, and they have the best record (6-3) among those teams. The only other team out of the 107 to have a winning record was the 1985-86 Browns, who were 5-4. You could say Mike Tomlin is doing some Marty Schottenheimer (Martyball) things with this team.

But it’s really just turnover differential and timely plays. I don’t know how long they can sustain this, but the schedule still looks favorable for 9-10 wins doing exactly this style of play.

Giants at Cowboys: Monster Dallas Win Against Division II Team

The Cowboys did not disappoint with the biggest point spread of the season (-17.5) in a 49-17 thrashing of the Giants. Dak Prescott passed for 404 yards and 4 touchdowns. CeeDee Lamb had 11 catches for 151 yards and scored a rushing touchdown. He is the first player ever to stack three straight games with 10 catches and 150 receiving yards.

But I believe games like this only fuel why people don’t trust the Cowboys. They basically operate in three modes:

  • Blowing out scrubs like the Tommy DeVito-led Giants.
  • Playing down to scrubs like their upset loss in Arizona this year or nearly blowing it as a 17-point home favorite against the 2022 Texans last December.
  • Looking dumb and losing to elite teams like the Eagles and 49ers.

When the Cowboys bring their A game, they look like the best team in the league. But just like how no one trusts the Dolphins this year against the good teams, we have been right to treat Dallas the same way for years.

Also, the Giants have to be the worst team in the NFL, right? Save for a half in Arizona where the Cardinals may have literally tanked, this team has been garbage on offense all year and now the defense is starting to give up huge numbers too.

The Giants are 4-15-1 under Brian Daboll ever since his 6-1 start.

Colts vs. Patriots: We Haven’t Sent Our Best to Germany Since WWII Ended

I woke up at noon and saw it was 10-6 Colts with just under 5:00 left, and all I could do was laugh. Of course, we send the Colts to Germany for their first island game of the season and immediately their streak of scoring 20 points in every game under Shane Steichen ends. That was my only good prediction for this game.

But I started checking the box score and it didn’t seem like a 10-6 game. Each team had a respectable third-down conversion rate (respectable for who these QBs are), there was only one turnover (Gardner Minshew INT) to that point, there were no failed fourth-down plays, and each team missed a field goal.

Looking into it later, what you had was abysmal red zone play by the Patriots, a bunch of third-down sacks taken by Mac Jones, and an 8-minute drive that bled into the fourth quarter before Bill Belichick still settled for a 24-yard field goal instead of going for a 4th-and-goal at the 5. It was 7-3 and your little kick made it 7-6. Why not take advantage of the field position and go for it? Your defense was playing great.

Of course, the Patriots wasted this defensive effort when Jones threw an atrocious interception in the red zone with 4:16 left.

That could have been the end of the Jones era in New England, because he was benched for the final drive when the Patriots got the ball back with 1:52 left. Bailey Zappe took over, and the move might have been permanent if he led this team on a 95-yard game-winning touchdown drive. Things were moving to midfield too before maybe the worst fake spike of all time:

I can’t seem to find the Madden view of this one, because that makes it look even worse. So much for the Zappe era, and so much for the Belichick era ending on a high note. He should have just walked away after 2018, because now he’s going to have to find a new team for 2024 if he’s going to coach long enough to break the all-time wins record.

By the way, this is the first time the Patriots lost a game after only allowing 10 points since September 23, 2001 against the Jets. That was the fateful game where Drew Bledsoe was injured by a Mo Lewis hit and Tom Brady replaced him in a 10-3 loss.

If Belichick was hoping a quarterback change would save his bacon this day, he was sorely mistaken.

Titans at Buccaneers: Can’t Find a Pulse

Admit it, you didn’t care one iota about this game. The Titans have played 6 games away from Nashville this season and have yet to top 16 points in any of them. They are also 0-6 when not home where they are 3-0 and average 27.5 points per game. Fun.

As it turns out, the low success rate Will Levis had in his 4 touchdown debut against Atlanta that was filled with 50-yard bombs has not led to more success for the rookie. This was his worst outing yet as he completed 19-of-39 passes for 199 yards and took 4 sacks in the 20-6 loss. Even the running game was shut down (16 carries for 42 yards) as the Buccaneers looked completely different from the defense that was shredded by C.J. Stroud and the Texans last week.

Mike Evans had a huge game with 143 yards and a touchdown, and he even dropped another score. He had 4 catches of 20-plus yards. The Titans didn’t have a play gain more than 15 yards until they trailed 20-6 with half a quarter to play.

Not much more to say about this one. The Titans’ offense simply hasn’t traveled all year long.

Jets at Raiders: J-E-T-S Just Embargo Touchdown Scoring

Since Monday night, we have watched the Jets play 8 quarters in prime time without the team scoring a single touchdown. The Jets have 8 offensive touchdowns in 9 games this season, so I guess it’s not that big of a surprise. But when you can’t break through against the defenses of the Chargers and Raiders, you have some pretty big flaws.

The Jets weren’t doing bad in this field goal fest, and I guess a 16-12 final with only 22 total possessions was better than the toilet bowl this game could have been. But once the Raiders finally broke the 9-9 tie by finding the end zone thanks to a 40-yard run by Josh Jacobs, you felt like the Jets had little hope without a massive turnover and easy field position for Zach Wilson and the offense.

Aidan O’Connell wasn’t great for the Raiders, but he only turned it over once, and he threw a game-winning touchdown pass to rookie tight end Michael Mayer. After the Jets caught their break when the defense forced a Jacobs fumble with 6:06 left, Wilson saved his worst decision of the night on an interception from the Raiders 20 by Robert Spillane with 1:14 left.

The Raiders went 3-and-out and saved the Jets a timeout by throwing incomplete on 3rd-and-5, which I would have called a run to Jacobs for. Wilson had 53 seconds left to go 80 yards, an even bigger miracle than the game-tying drive against the Giants this year. Tight end Tyler Conklin did make some nice plays, including a 27-yard grab, to give the Jets a chance, but they wasted a solid 7 seconds by not getting their final timeout in after Conklin was down. Jets coach Robert Saleh alleged he was trying to get the timeout at 20 seconds, but no one acknowledged him. I’m not sure what happened there but it left the Jets only with 13 seconds left and 44 more yards to go. That’s 2 plays.

I have to say Wilson did a very good job of escaping pressure on the final snap and giving his guys a shot at the Hail Mary in the end zone. But it was not caught, and the Jets lost 16-12 to fall to 4-5, which will be no better than 13th in the AFC.

The Raiders are suddenly 5-5 and celebrating wins under interim coach Antonio Pierce like they won the Super Bowl, but these New York teams are not anyone’s Super Bowl this year. The schedule will get much tougher and I’ll be surprised if the Raiders don’t max out at 7-10, which is the record I had for them before the season started.

The Jets gambled on a quarterback staying hot after his 40th birthday, and they made his backup the kid who thinks hotness begins at 40. They are losing for it now.

Because unlike the past boring editions of teams who just try to hide the quarterback by playing great defense and running the ball, the Jets don’t do enough running. The backs had 17 carries for 54 yards in Vegas, and these are no scrubs with Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. But Wilson himself had 4 runs for 54 yards as a scrambler.

But hey, as long as they keep starting him, we get to see records. Wilson is the first quarterback since the 1970 merger to pass for 260 yards in back-to-back games without leading his team to a single touchdown in either game.

Just put an embargo on touchdown scoring and the Jets might be playoff ready.

Next week: The last time I was this ready for a MNF game, it was cancelled halfway through the first quarter. But Eagles-Chiefs is a big one, and since it’s prime time where offense dies this season, I fully expect the Chiefs to win 16-13. But Bengals-Ravens on TNF is another big one, Steelers-Browns should be a bloodbath at 1:00, and we’ll just ignore the absolute mess they lined up for the late afternoon and SNF (Vikings-Broncos). But I might have a special preview on Chiefs-Eagles or at least something related this week.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 5

Well, I guess we’ll have to wait until Week 13 for the real Game of the Year in the NFC this season when the last two unbeatens in the league (49ers and Eagles) meet in Philadelphia. That rematch of last year’s championship game is still the only time Brock Purdy has lost a start in the NFL.

The Cowboys were so outclassed by the 49ers on Sunday night that Bill Belichick and Sean Payton should send Jerry Jones a gift basket for taking some of the heat and attention away from them suffering the lowest points of their careers.

It started as a pretty weird day with Buffalo losing to the London Jaguars after winning their last 3 games by 28+ points each. Then the Ravens gave a game away to the Steelers, the Colts are 3-2 after flipping the script on Tennessee, the Chiefs almost lost Taylor Swift Travis Kelce for the season, and the 49ers showed us what a super team looks like on Sunday night.

But there is a growing one-sidedness to this season. We only had 1 lead change in the fourth quarter in Week 4, and this week we only had two before Monday Night Football. Only 3 of the last 35 games have had a fourth-quarter lead change. That rate should usually be around 25% of games, not 8.6%. We’re going through a drought of exciting games as it mostly has been one team jumping out to a lead and hanging on.

In Week 5, there were only 7 games with a comeback opportunity, which would be the third week in a row without 8 opportunities. But I have a feeling Monday night will add one more. Before we get there, let’s recap Sunday’s action.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Cowboys at 49ers: Game of the Ye-Yeah It Was Another McCarthy Clusterf*ck

If this was a measuring stick game, then the 49ers took the stick and beat the Cowboys to death with it. They also put the rest of the league on notice that this is the best team in the NFL right now.

The closest Dallas came to staying with the 49ers on the scoreboard was for the 3 minutes and 50 seconds that this game remained 0-0 before George Kittle scored his first of three touchdowns on the night. Dallas trailed by at least 7 points for the final 56:10 on the way to a 42-10 loss.

I’d say it reminded me of the times when Mike McCarthy’s Packers went 0-4 against Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers in 2012-13, but those games were never this lopsided. This was much worse than the last two postseason losses for Dallas against the 49ers, which was supposed to be the motivating factor for the Cowboys to look better in this matchup if San Francisco is the new measuring stick in the NFC. Remember, it was 12-12 in the fourth quarter in the divisional round last year.

But it is looking like McCarthy will move to 0-7 against the 49ers in the years where they make the playoffs. This was the worst performance yet on both sides of the ball.

Save for one 78-yard touchdown drive, Dak Prescott played an awful game, finishing with 3 interceptions, 3 sacks, and only 153 passing yards before he was yanked in the final quarter of a blowout. Also, so much for Tony Pollard making an impact after he was injured in the playoff game last January. He had 8 carries for 29 yards, getting outrushed by Deebo Samuel (30 yards).

While the Dallas defense did come up with 3 stops in a row early in the game, they followed that by allowing 5 touchdowns on the next 6 drives. Good night, Irene. Brock Purdy looked more like the quarterback I saw shred Pittsburgh in Week 1 with a passing clinic as he ran his record to 13-0 in games where he attempts 20 passes. Purdy had 4 touchdown passes, confirming the Cowboys were no longer playing the Giants, Jets, Cardinals, and Patriots.

Christian McCaffrey scored a touchdown for the 14th game in a row despite the fact he only averaged 2.7 yards per carry and had a season-low 2 catches. But there were not even moral victories for Dallas in this one. This was the worst performance any team this year’s had against the 49ers.

It may only be a game in Week 5 and crazier things have happened before, but I don’t know how any Dallas fan could not be extremely pessimistic about the rest of the season after this. The Cowboys (3-2) still have to play the Eagles (twice), Bills, Dolphins, Lions, Chargers, and Seahawks. For a team that’s already lost to the Cardinals, we might as well mention they play the Commanders (twice) and Rams too.

Dallas was my Super Bowl loser pick in the NFC this year, and losing this game in Week 5 was part of my script. But even I would start walking that pick back after what I saw on Sunday night.

Meanwhile, the 49ers’ biggest question this year was if Purdy is a legitimate starter or if last year was a fluke. After Week 5, I think we have to admit he is capable of leading this team all the way.

The 49ers are 17-1 in their last 18 games, and you know what happened to the quarterback position in the only loss. They are only the 5th team to start a season at least 5-0 with 30 points scored in every game, joining the 2000 Rams, 2007 Patriots, 2013 Broncos, and 2018 Rams. Those last three teams all lost the Super Bowl that year, and the 2000 Rams lost a wild card game.

There’s a lot of season left, but we are witnessing something historic with the 49ers. As for Dallas, it is looking like the status quo, which means Macarena was on the Billboard Hot 100 more recently than the Cowboys were in the NFC Championship Game.

Ravens at Steelers: Respect the Rivalry

People who do not respect this rivalry do not understand that no matter what talent gap exists between these teams, they are always capable of playing a tight, low-scoring game that goes down to the wire.

Having said that, I am still in shock that the Ravens took a 10-0 lead with 12:23 left in the 2nd quarter and never scored again in a 17-10 loss. It is no understatement to say the Ravens left 30+ points on the field in one of the most egregious losses in the history of this rivalry. This is right up there with Kris Brown missing 4 field goals for Pittsburgh in 2001.

I’ll blame everyone on Baltimore except for Justin Tucker. Lamar Jackson was sharp early, but his receivers were terrible with a handful of drops before halftime. After the pressure increased as the game wore on, Jackson’s accuracy and decision making also fell apart, and he became another scapegoat in this terrible loss.

I have no idea what John Harbaugh and the Ravens were thinking to end the first half. Instead of bringing out Tucker for an easy 41-yard field goal on a 4th-and-2, the offense ran a play, and Jackson hurried a terrible throw that fell incomplete. There goes 3 points.

The Ravens may have escaped this one if not for a big blocked punt in the fourth quarter that almost turned into a touchdown, but the Steelers settled for a safety and 10-5 deficit. It was running back Jaylen Warren rather than Najee Harris who sparked the offense to get a field goal and make it 10-8. But even after getting a three-and-out, the Steelers fumbled the punt return and gave the Ravens a golden opportunity with a first-and-goal at the 7.

But on 3rd-and-5, Jackson forced a pass in the end zone to Odell Beckham Jr. and Joey Porter Jr. made a monster interception with 4:06 left. Down 10-8, Kenny Pickett is good for about one scoring drive a game. Sometimes they are timely ones like his game-winning touchdown drive against the Ravens last year.

This didn’t seem like a spot where he would step up after the offense struggled again, but he did. George Pickens had a huge quarter and came alive with two 20-yard plays. The last was a shocker as you would think the Steelers would set up a game-winning field goal with no time left, but they went for the dagger and Pickett hit Pickens deep after he beat Marlon Humphrey for a 41-yard touchdown with 1:17 left. Pittsburgh led 14-10 for the first time all day.

Jackson had plenty of time to answer, but on the second play of the drive, Alex Highsmith forced him to fumble on a sack, and T.J. Watt was there for the recovery. The Steelers saved the Ravens 40 seconds with a penalty on a kneeldown, a huge mistake. But the field goal made it 17-10 with 49 seconds left.

Things were not going well for the Ravens on the drive, and Watt made sure he was going to end it this time with a sack of Jackson on 4th-and-7 at his own 28. Game over. The Steelers somehow survived this one.

The 2023 Steelers are 3-2 and in first place in the AFC North, and I just find that so comical because this offense continues to suck. Frankly, the defense isn’t that good either, but this team’s magic sauce right now is getting quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Jackson – he added to his poor track record vs. Pittsburgh – to make enough mistakes to allow them to steal a win late. The Steelers have given up 30 points and been dominated by the 49ers and Texans, two teams running the Kyle Shanahan offensive system with quarterbacks (Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud) who seemingly can’t throw interceptions right now.

But give them a sack merchant or a risky thrower, and they are going to get enough big plays from the likes of T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Minkah Fitzpatrick to make the difference. Maybe Porter Jr. is the latest defender to save the day.

I’m still shocked the Ravens failed to score on their final 9 drives despite numerous opportunities to do so. Hell, I’m still shocked they watched Gardner Minshew pull an Orlovsky and they still lost that game to the Colts. Ditto on Sunday with the way the Steelers fumbled a punt at the 7-yard line late in the game.

Who wins the AFC North? Damned if I know at this point. It’s a mess of a division this year.

Chiefs at Vikings: Repeating Is Hard

Winning a Super Bowl is hard. Winning two in a row seems impossible these days in the NFL. But you know what might be even harder? Winning a ton of close games in back-to-back years.

The 2008-09 Colts pulled it off when Peyton Manning was at the height of his team-carrying powers, but most teams regress hard in close games the following year. The Vikings are feeling that now. After starting his career 8-0 at game-winning drive opportunities, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is 0-5 going back to the wild card playoff loss to the Giants.

This was another failed comeback, but unlike last year, this was another difficult situation with the Chiefs leading 27-13 to start the fourth quarter. Even though it looked like Travis Kelce fell victim to a brutal non-contact leg injury in the first half, he found a way to come back on a bad ankle in the third quarter and caught several passes before scoring another touchdown, his first since turning 34 the other day.

Just when you thought the Vikings had some momentum, Kelce came back to finish the game while Justin Jefferson was out with a hamstring injury. He played much of the game, but the Chiefs held him to just 28 yards.

But the Chiefs rarely make it easy on themselves. After the Vikings made it 27-20, the Chiefs looked like they were going to go for a 4th-and-1 at their own 47 with 9:05 left after the Vikings used their last timeout. But the Chiefs were only trying to draw the Vikings offsides before they punted.

That’s the kind of decision I still don’t get with Andy Reid. You have Mahomes and you still had Kelce playing. Why not just go for it? Chances are you will convert, then you can end up adding more points and get this to a 2-score lead with little time left for the team out of timeouts.

I don’t know if it’s false trust in the defense or just the old hubris of doing things the way they’ve always done them. But this is the kind of situation I’d like to see the Chiefs start going for. Instead, they gave Cousins a shot at tying the game.

Without Jefferson, that was going to be tough. Inexcusably, the Vikings were flagged for delay of game when they wanted to go for a 4th-and-7 at the Kansas City 19. The respect for Mahomes’ ability to run out the clock is crazy but justified, because the Vikings still went for the 4th-and-12 instead of taking a field goal with 4:54 left. The Jaguars did something very similar in Week 2 against the Chiefs. Before these two plays, you have to go back to 1999 to find the last time an offense, down 7-8 points with more than 4:00 left in the fourth quarter and the ball inside the opponent 30, went for a 4th-and-10 or longer instead of kicking a field goal.

The Chiefs brought pressure, Cousins just threw one up for the end zone, and the flag for DPI was rightfully picked up as the pass wasn’t even close. There could have been a penalty on the Chiefs for their player taking his helmet off after the play. T.J. Watt was called for that in Pittsburgh in the early slate. We’ve seen this get called and we’ve seen it go uncalled. Refs are not consistent on it. I’m not a big fan of the rule period, so I don’t mind that one being let go. It still happened after possession changed, so it would have remained Kansas City’s ball.

But this time, Mahomes did not bleed the clock. He thought he could pass into the flat for a game-clinching first down, but the Vikings were there to stop it short. The Chiefs punted and Cousins had to drive 81 yards in 1:07. Crazier things have happened. It looked like Cousins had a decent shot at a Hail Mary from just 38 yards away on the final snap, but the Chiefs put that to rest right away with a game-ending sack of Cousins.

The Chiefs are 4-1 and seem to have avoided the worst with Kelce’s injury. It is a quick turnaround to play Denver on Thursday night, but you know this team will have something cooked up. But it gets scary when you see Kelce having injury issues and Mahomes has narrowly avoided some serious hits too. The repeat dream is over if this connection is not available to the Chiefs.

Bills vs. Jaguars: Josh Allen Loses Again to His Namesake

Did it help that Jacksonville stayed in London after winning there (albeit at a different venue) last week? Did it hurt that Buffalo did not arrive until Friday? I don’t know what impact, if any, it had but it probably had something to do with the Jaguars jumping out to an 11-0 lead against a team that was so dominant since Week 2.

The London travel difference had me worried about this game for Buffalo. I also remembered the weird 9-6 loss the Bills had to Urban Meyer’s Jags in 2021 when Josh Allen the quarterback imploded against Josh Allen the defender.

But this was a weird Buffalo loss as it was not the turnovers that did in the Bills this time. Their only turnovers came in the fourth quarter, and while Allen threw an interception in an 11-7 game, it was on a 3-and-15 and served as a good punt. The only other turnover was an ill-advised lateral in the final seconds when the Bills needed a miracle anyway.

The Bills punted 6 times before the fourth quarter, something the Bills have done only one other time since 2020 (7 early punts vs. 2021 Jets). That’s impressive for the Jacksonville defense, but oddly enough, I was a little more impressed with the way the Bills kept Jacksonville from scoring despite so many defensive injuries. They lost Matt Milano and Von Miller in this game among others. But twice they were able to force Trevor Lawrence into a fumble deep in scoring territory.

Unfortunately, the injuries did catch up to Buffalo as Travis Etienne burned them late in the game on his way to 136 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. The Bills only rushed for 29 yards on 14 carries, and that even includes Allen’s contributions as a runner (4 carries for 14 yards and a touchdown). Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs both hit 100 yards, but the Bills were stuck on 7 points for too long and caught playing catchup to a Jacksonville team that showed up to play.

The penalties were also out of control in the fourth quarter on both sides. One Buffalo touchdown drive saw 6 plays get flagged for something. But the most egregious one was a roughing the passer to wipe out a sack of Allen on a 3rd-and-1 that would have turned it into 4th-and-12 and likely a field goal attempt late in an 18-7 game. That whole play was screwed up because there was so much uncertainty whether it was 3rd-and-1 or 1st-and-10 for Buffalo. The Bills caught a break with that call, then wasted it after Etienne broke loose for a 35-yard touchdown to regain a 12-point lead.

The Bills did a great job driving 75 yards in 45 seconds for another touchdown, but the onside kick is impossible these days. By the time they got it back in a 25-20 game, they had to go 94 yards in 22 seconds. That’s when Diggs tried a lateral that was fumbled to end the game.

The Bills having a London letdown after last week’s huge win is not that surprising, especially when you consider the defensive injuries. Is it the kind of loss that adds to this team being untrustworthy in big games? Well, it was still a hell of a lot better than what the Cowboys did on Sunday night. I’m not that worried about Buffalo yet, but the injuries definitely need to chill out.

Bengals at Cardinals: Ja’Marr Chase to the Rescue

The Cardinals were my upset pick for Week 5, but I haven’t been able to get a Cincinnati game right since Week 2 when I said the Ravens would beat them.

Going to Arizona, a team playing better than expected, without Tee Higgins (ribs) did not seem like an ideal spot for Joe Burrow to get right, but he definitely knew where Ja’Marr Chase was all game. Chase had no touchdowns coming into the game but scored 3 here on his way to 15 catches and 192 yards. That’s a career game for most wide receivers, but it’s not even the best Chase game we have ever seen.

It was just the best one in 2023 as the league’s worst offense finally put things together to have a successful outing. But the game really turned on Arizona when the defense got a goal-line stand only for Joshua Dobbs to force a pick-six from his own end zone in the second quarter.

The Bengals took the lead and never looked back. Arizona had no turnovers in the last 3 games, but Dobbs had 3 turnovers in this game. The Cardinals also lost James Conner to an injury, which is not uncommon for him.

There were some bright moments for Arizona after a pick and some sacks of Burrow, but overall, the team was outclassed by a Cincinnati team that has not been playing well this year at all.

Does this mean the Bengals are “back” this year? I have no idea. I thought things were going to be better after the Los Angeles win, but then they shit the bed in Tennessee the next week. But they get the Seahawks next week, and both Cincinnati wins are against the NFC West so far. Maybe an unfamiliar opponent will help in addition to probably getting Higgins back.

Eagles at Rams: We’re Going with Brotherly Shove Now?

With the growing coverage and controversy around the “Tush Push” or “Brotherly Shove” quarterback sneak, this game was a great example of just how much better the Eagles are at it than everyone else. That strong offensive line combined with the strength of Jalen Hurts just makes it look unstoppable even when the defense knows exactly what is coming. Hurts just pushes through until he gets the first down.

He did it again in epic fashion before halftime with the Eagles down and only 2 seconds left on the clock. But when this team is at the 1-yard line, Hurts scoring is almost automatic. They called their sneak and he scored again to take a 17-14 lead after a good half saw Dallas Goedert and Cooper Kupp dominating for their respective teams. Kupp made his season debut and did not miss a beat even with sharing the ball with rookie sensation Puka Nacua.

But to the detriment of my best parlay on Sunday, the second half was a flop for scoring:

  • Stafford was hit for an intentional grounding at midfield on third down.
  • Hurts was intercepted in the end zone on a brilliant catch by Ahkello Witherspoon.
  • A screen to Puka on a third down at the Philadelphia 43 was blown up and nearly a lost fumble for the Rams.
  • The Eagles settled for a 26-yard field goal to take a 20-14 lead with 12:29 left to play.
  • Stafford missed a deep third down to Kupp, then the Eagles burned more clock for another field goal with 4:06 left.
  • Haason Reddick sacked Stafford on back-to-back plays, including a 4th-and-12 with 2:46 left.
  • Hurts converted another 3rd-and-1 with the sneak, but the Eagles were eventually stopped on a 4th-down run with only 61 seconds left.
  • The Rams were in no hurry to seriously try scoring as the clock expired with the ball inside their 40.

Just a brutal way to lose out on what looked like an easy over, but each team only had 8 possessions, and the Rams failed to score on their last 5. The Eagles had two field goal drives that consumed over 8:00 each. It was another efficient performance for a team that is rounding into shape, but they will have to play even better than this to knock off the 49ers in the NFC this year.

Titans at Colts: AFC South Dark Horse?

This one shocked me as I did not expect Zack Moss (195 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns) to be the dominant back in a game with Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor. In fact, I didn’t expect the Colts to run well at all against the Titans, who were allowing a league-low 2.9 yards per carry coming into Week 5.

That is what the Titans do going back some time now. They shut down the run and force you to throw, which is not something the Colts are cut out for like the old days. But they were proving that all wrong in this game as they ran the ball at will on the Titans with Moss getting most of the work as they eased Taylor back, and the passing game was solid with Gardner Minshew replacing an injured (again) Anthony Richardson. The Colts were 20-of-26 passing for 253 yards and only 1 sack. The Colts scored 23 points on 7 drives and gained at least 40 yards on their last 6 drives.

But the other side of the coin was the Tennessee running game, which stalled with 20 handoffs for 77 yards. Henry only had 43 yards and was stuffed on the play of the game on a 4th-and-1 at the Colts 5 in a 20-16 game with 8:03 left.

The Colts had an epic 14-play drive for a field goal that only left Ryan Tannehill a minute to drive 75 yards in a 23-16 game. Things were not going well, and he was intercepted with 10 seconds left to secure the win for the Colts, who are now 3-2.

This will go down as another low-scoring road loss for the Titans, but the game was more offensive than it looks with the tiny number of possessions for each team. But that just magnifies the 4th-down stop the Colts had on Henry.

With a game at Jacksonville next week where the Colts haven’t won since 2014, the team is in an odd position where they might be better with Minshew at quarterback than the rookie. But more than anything, they might have some real durability concerns with Richardson, who has already failed to finish 3 games due to 3 different injuries. He also missed a full game in Week 3 after a concussion. Maybe he can shake off these early injuries like Matthew Stafford did in Detroit years ago, but for now, Richardson is not someone the team can count on to stay in the game.

After what happened to end the careers of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck in Indy, this is definitely a worrisome look. But Minshew is one of the best backups in the league, and the Colts already gave the Jaguars a tough game in Week 1.

Jets at Broncos: Hackett Gets the Last Laugh

Oh, did we learn some things in this one.

  • Sean Payton can talk the talk, but he can’t walk the walk anymore, going 0-3 at home to Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Howell, and Zach Wilson.
  • Zach Wilson is not as good as Justin Fields at exploiting a terrible defense, but he played a serviceable game until a bad luck interception stuck to a defender late in the game.
  • Nathaniel Hackett and the Jets finally unleashed Breece Hall and he answered with 194 scrimmage yards and a touchdown.
  • Russell Wilson fell in love with scrambling and passes to running backs against this tough defense, but when push came to shove late in the game, he couldn’t find his wideouts to get a game-tying field goal.
  • Denver’s season is over at 1-4 with both Kansas City games coming up and a game with Buffalo soon.

Both offenses thrived on their running backs in this one. While not getting shredded by Zach Wilson was a triumph for the Denver defense, it was still a lousy game overall as the Jets piled up over 400 yards after driving for at least 40 yards on 7 straight drives to end the game.

But a late interception in field goal range gave Russell Wilson and the Broncos a chance from their own 3 in a 24-21 game with 2:14 left. Long field but plenty of time. Wilson did get the offense out to the 41, but with the Jets getting closer and closer in the fourth quarter, they finally got Wilson with a forced fumble that was picked up and returned for a touchdown to ice the game.

Should the Jets have gone down and kneeled it out to win 24-21? Probably, but you can tell it was personal for this team to stick it to Payton and the Broncos in their own building. It’s not like Wilson was going to put up 10 points in 29 seconds.

The better team won, and with the way Denver approached this must-win game, perhaps it is the better coaching staff too in New York. Hackett was unquestionably awful as Denver’s coach last year, but Payton is doing a shockingly bad job that could go down as being even worse.

I never would have guessed things would start this poorly for Denver this year. Fortunately, losing at home to Hackett and the Jets (without Aaron Rodgers) is probably the worst it can get this year. That’s saying something for a team that already had a game where it allowed 70 points and 726 yards.

Giants at Dolphins: Run Those Bums Off the Field

Look, the Giants are just trash. This team has played like shit for 9-of-10 halves this season, only coming back against Arizona’s nameless defense when that team was still formulating its tanking plan for Caleb Williams.

The Giants finally scored a first-half touchdown in this game, and of course it was on a 102-yard pick-six as Tua Tagovailoa got greedy before the half. A second interception in the third quarter also set up the Giants for a 4-yard field goal drive, so 10 of those points are directly on the Miami passing game.

But nothing says trash Giants team like a 10-play, 18-yard field goal drive in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins were able to cover the 13-point spread without playing anywhere near their A game.

But with these ridiculous speed demons on the field, how could they not beat the Giants by a couple of touchdowns? Miami had plays that gained 64, 69, and 76 yards, and it was basically all about the speed of Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane. The latter now has a run of at least 55 yards in three straight games. He’s already a third of the way to Derrick Henry’s career total of 55-yard runs (9) and a quarter of the way to Chris Johnson (12). It’s Week 5 of his rookie year. His speed is just absurd to watch, and it is almost unfair that the league let Miami draft him in the third round.

Thanks to the explosive play of Achane and Hill, the Dolphins averaged 9.7 yards per play, a huge number we rarely see. Miami is the first team in NFL history to have two games in a season where the offense averaged at least 9.5 yards per play. Only five other offenses in the Super Bowl era had multiple games in a season averaging over 9.0 yards per play. Oddly enough, the 2018 Dolphins with a whole different cast was one of those teams.

Miami has averaged 8.31 yards per play over the last 5 games. The only team in NFL history with a better 5-game span was the 2000 Rams (8.51).

It looks like the 2000 Rams are the team these Dolphins are chasing in the record books. Miami’s 2,568 yards of offense are the most ever through 5 games in a season in NFL history, surpassing the 2000 Rams (2,527 yards).

But if you look at the 135 teams to have at least 2,000 yards of offense through 5 games, only 8 of those teams (5.9%) won the championship that season, and almost half of them only had to win one playoff game to do it back in the day (1941 Bears, 1951 Rams, 1958 Colts, 1988 49ers, 1995 Cowboys, 2009 Saints, 2019 Chiefs, and 2021 Rams).

For Miami’s sake, you want to be more like the 1999 or 2001 Rams than the 2000 team that had a horrible defense, turned the ball over too much, and lost a wild card game to the Saints. But the defense at least dominated the Giants, Daniel Jones left with a neck injury, and the Dolphins can beat up on a winless Carolina team next week to get to 5-1.

We’ll be history watching with this offense all season, but historically, this does not yet have the makings of a championship team. But that speed is sure fun to watch dominate the bad teams.

Texans at Falcons: Promising Day for Desmond Ridder

If you wanted a game with solid quarterback play and multiple lead changes, this is one of your only choices the last couple of weeks. Neither team was able to break 2.8 yards per carry, but their quarterbacks avoided turnovers. In fact, C.J. Stroud was able to set the record for most pass attempts without an interception to begin his career.

Stroud also did a more than respectable job in the first game-winning drive attempt of his career. Down 18-12, he engineered a 75-yard touchdown drive, finding tight end Dalton Schultz for an 18-yard score with 1:49 left to take a 19-18 lead.

The only knock you can make is that the Texans went 3-and-out on their previous drive, which led to an Atlanta field goal and 18-12 deficit. By only going up a point with so much time left, it left the Falcons some low-hanging fruit to simply get into range for a game-winning field goal with no time left.

That’s exactly what they did as Desmond Ridder had the best game of his NFL career with 329 passing yards on 28-of-37 passing. He also ran for a touchdown earlier in the game. Ridder ended up leading two go-ahead drives in this one, throwing a touchdown pass to Bijan Robinson early in the quarter and then he was 5-for-5 for 44 yards on the game-winning field goal drive. Younghoe Koo was good from 37 yards away with no time left in the 21-19 win.

It was a very good day for Ridder when you consider the running game was held to 86 yards on 32 carries. He finally got Kyle Pitts involved with a game-high 87 yards on 7-of-11 passing. He finished strong even after his teammates fumbled on back-to-back drives in the third quarter. The Falcons can win with a quarterback like this, but Ridder will have to show he can do it more often.

Saints at Patriots: Belichick Can’t Tell a Single Soul That His Soul’s Gone

I said this would be the worst New England team in the 21st century. But 34-0 at home to Derek Carr a week after losing 38-3 in Dallas? The 2023 Patriots are only the 9th team since the merger to lose back-to-back games by 34 points. The last to do it was the 2019 Dolphins, a team accused of tanking.

I doubt Bill Belichick is actively tanking when he’s trying to get the all-time wins record without getting fired by Robert Kraft first, but this is a mess. Mac Jones had 3 more turnovers, including another awful pick-six as the first score of the game, a 25-yard return by Tyrann Mathieu. The second interception was not his fault at all, but there are a lot of problems with this team now and Belichick is out of solutions.

For one, you need talent, and his roster might be battling Arizona for the worst talent in the league. When you take Matt Judon and Christian Gonzalez away from the defense, that leaves a very bland lineup that cannot provide the necessary carnage to give this weak offense a shot.

This game was over at halftime. The Patriots are the only team since 1991 to get shut out at home while going 1-for-14 (or worse) on third down. The 8 first downs are the fewest by the Patriots since Belichick took the job in 2000.

Can it get lower than this? The Patriots (1-4) go back to Las Vegas next week where Belichick can fall to 0-3 against Josh McDaniels in his career.

Panthers at Lions: By Air and Ground

The 2022 Lions had a respectable season, but one of the biggest eyesores was that 37-23 loss in Carolina where they were outrushed 320-45. On Sunday, the Lions got some revenge in a complete team effort, 42-24 win despite not having Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs available on offense.

But the Lions showed that their other draft picks and additions are more than enough to beat a bad Carolina team that has still never had a fourth-quarter lead this season. David Montgomery basically gave the middle finger to the Gibbs truthers with a 42-yard touchdown run on his first carry as he finished with another 109 yards on the ground. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta scored two touchdowns and looks great.

The defense held Carolina to 99 rushing yards and picked off Bryce Young twice, including an incredible one-handed snag in the backfield by Aidan Hutchinson. I’m impressed with a defensive lineman who now has 4 interceptions in his first 22 games. Even J.J. Watt only had 3 of those in his career, and that includes his memorable pick-6 off Andy Dalton in a playoff game his rookie year (2011 AFC wild card).

The Lions (4-1) are doing very well and will get a decent road test in Tampa Bay next week. It is too early to talk 0-17 for the Panthers (0-5), but with a trip to Miami next, you can count on 0-6 going into the bye. But they’ll have shots against the Texans/Colts/Bears out of that to get their first win.

Next week: Quick turnaround for the wounded Chiefs as they look to make it 16 in a row against Denver on Thursday night. You will not get me up early to watch Titans-Ravens overseas. Seahawks-Bengals got much more interesting with the Cincinnati one, and I have no idea which team to trust in that one. I’m sure Nick Bosa will be in rare form against Deshaun Watson, and with the Eagles facing the Jets, I think there’s a solid shot we have two 6-0 teams in a week.  

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 2

Now that’s more like it. After a low-scoring Week 1, the NFL got back on track with a Week 2 slate (MNF doubleheader pending) that featured:

  • 10 games with a comeback opportunity
  • 10 300-yard passers (5 in Week 1)
  • 8 games where both teams scored more than 21 points (1 in Week 1)
  • 4 double-digit comeback wins (half in the 4th quarter alone)
  • 2 overtime games
  • 1 Hail Mary touchdown that will quickly be forgotten since it ended with a loss

Also, in Week 1, half the quarterbacks (16/32) had a QBR under 45.0 at ESPN. In Week 2, only 3-of-28 quarterbacks (10.7%) had a QBR under 45.0. I don’t have an updated database of this stat, but I have to imagine 3-of-28 would make this one of the best statistical weeks for quarterback play since 2006. At the very least, a week where not many people flat out sucked.

So far, it is looking like 2023 will be a very competitive season as teams like the Rams, Colts, and Cardinals may not be the epic dumpster fires they could have been. Even the Giants went from being outscored 60-0 to scoring 31 points in a win in one half today.

In the flash in the pan NFC, the Falcons, Buccaneers, and Commanders are all 2-0, though I’m not sure any of them has real staying power this year. Five of their 6 wins have been by a game-winning drive and the one that wasn’t needed a game-clinching pick-6 in a 3-point game today. The schedule will continue helping those NFC South teams, but I’m not ready to say any of these teams have “arrived” as surprises just yet.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Ravens at Bengals: When the Quarterback Health Pendulum Swings the Other Way

I haven’t been shy all summer about making the Ravens my pick to win the AFC North, and ultimately, they were my No. 1 seed and Super Bowl pick for the 2023 season. They haven’t let me down yet, and despite the injury concerns starting to mount, they still have health at the position that matters the most: quarterback.

It cannot be ignored that the Ravens were leading the AFC North in December in 2021 and 2022 on the day where Lamar Jackson suffered an injury that would end his seasons. Cincinnati then ended up winning the division both years, and it won a wild card game against backup Tyler Huntley, who fumbled on a quarterback sneak for the deciding touchdown.

I liked Baltimore all summer, and I liked them in this game because the quarterback health pendulum in the AFC North is finally swinging their way. Joe Burrow had a calf injury in July and missed a lot of camp and practice time. He simply may not be healthy enough to be starting games, but he is anyway. Last week, he threw for 82 yards on 31 attempts.

This time, he was 8-of-11 for 35 yards at halftime as the Ravens played ball control well and led 13-10 at halftime. Cincinnati’s only touchdown was an 81-yard punt return touchdown. The offense simply didn’t show up yet for the Bengals this season.

But after a red zone interception to start the second half, things did improve for the Bengals. They engineered two long touchdown drives on their final 3 possessions, though there was a bad 3-and-out in between.

Meanwhile, Jackson showed his value in what I would call one of the best games of his career. He only threw for 237 yards and rushed for 54 yards, but his game management was excellent. The Ravens averaged 3.0 points per drive, a league-leading number most years, and that’s even with a missed field goal and a clock-killing drive to close out the win.

Jackson helped the Ravens overcome a 2nd-and-23 in the fourth quarter on a drive that ended with a touchdown to Nelson Agholor to take a 27-17 lead. Then after the Bengals pulled to within 27-24 with 3:28 left, Jackson did his job and put the game away. He scrambled for 12 yards on a big third-and-3. Burrow, who finished with under 225 yards for the fourth time since 2022 against Baltimore, never got the ball back in a one-score game in the fourth quarter.

Baltimore has blown too many games like this in recent years, but not on Sunday. Now they are 2-0 with a road win over the 0-2 Bengals, who feel in worse shape than they did a year ago when they lost two tight games with the Steelers and Cowboys before going on a run. Burrow is also saying he tweaked the calf injury too. We’ll see how he looks on Monday night against Aaron Donald and the Rams in a Super Bowl rematch.

Clearly, it’s not how you start but how you finish in this league. But as long as Jackson remains healthy and plays more from the pocket as he did in this game, the Ravens are the team to beat in the AFC North this year.

Chiefs at Jaguars: Does Kansas City Have… a Defense?

Given what this game could have been and what it was, this was my dud of the week. I thought Jacksonville would make it more interesting after getting swept last year. Patrick Mahomes wasn’t on a high-ankle sprain, Travis Kelce was back, and Calvin Ridley was here to make a difference for Jacksonville at home.

Yet, the Chiefs had 12 penalties for 94 yards, turned it over 3 times, and they still won 17-9.

Wait, 26 points? It’s tied for the second-lowest scoring game involving Mahomes in his career. The lowest was 13-7 against the 2021 Packers in Jordan Love’s first start. The total was 51 points, so the 25 points under the total was the 5th-largest under performance in a game with Mahomes.

Mahomes targeted 11 different receivers in the first half, which felt like overkill for a team that searches for reliable targets. Kelce barely looked like a factor in his return until he caught a touchdown in the second half.

But had the Chiefs stopped nuking drives with penalties and taken better care of the ball – add another muffed punt, fumbled completion, and Mahomes was picked on an overthrown deep ball – this would have been a rout.

But that’s why they call it gambling. Just this week I wrote on another site about trusting your gut and doubling down on picks from week to week in this league. I then completely ignored myself.

In Week 1, I faded Calvin Ridley in his first game since 2021 in favor of Christian Kirk, the reliable target for Trevor Lawrence he built great chemistry with. Of course, Kirk had 1 catch for 9 yards while Ridley torched the Colts for 8/101/1.

Instead of doubling down on Kirk, I switched to Ridley for my week’s biggest parlay, thinking he would make a difference and have 60+ yards for the Jaguars in this game (O/U 72.5). Of course, Kirk caught 11-of-14 for 110 yards while Lawrence was 2-of-8 for 36 yards to Ridley. They just could not finish plays together, and that ended up being my only losing leg on a parlay I didn’t hedge. FML.

Lawerence was only 22-of-41 for 216 yards in what I would say was his worst passing game against the Chiefs yet. Chris Jones had 1.5 sacks in his return, including a big stop on a fourth down early in the game. That did not help Jacksonville’s efforts, but compared to 2022, they went backwards on offense in this rivalry, and it does not look like they are ready to step up to the big boys in 2023. This game was only moderately close because of Kansas City’s self-inflicted mistakes with all the false starts and turnovers.

Also, just like last week against Detroit, it is wild what teams do against Mahomes out of fear. The Jaguars were down 17-9 and instead of kicking a 34-yard field goal with 4:18 left (time plus 4 clock stoppages in hand), they went for a 4th-and-12 at the Kansas City 16. Not a 4th-and-2 but a 4th-and-12. I’m not sure about that one, especially when you are down 8 and would need another possession and score anyway to win this game. If you don’t think you can stop Mahomes again, then you’re losing the game regardless. I probably kick the field goal there, especially since Lawrence’s accuracy was poor.

Sure enough, Lawrence threw incomplete to Ridley (FML) and that was that. Mahomes added to his quickly growing legacy of being the best quarterback ever in the 4-minute offense. He scrambled 14 yards for a first down, then on a pivotal 3rd-and-6 with 2:03 left, he improvised and found Skyy Moore with a deep ball for a 54-yard gain to essentially ice this one. The running game picked up one more first down to make sure it ended 17-9.

The Chiefs go into the history books again, not losing any of their last 35 games by more than 4 points.

But with games against the Bears and Jets up next, the storyline of the Chiefs having an elite defense in 2023 should continue into October. We’ll see if that holds true when the tougher tests come up later in the season. But if you get the offense back to firing on all cylinders and actually sustain a great defensive performance, then I’m not sure anyone is beating this team this year.

They are playing C+ caliber games and were a Kadarius Toney drop away from being 2-0 against a pair of division favorites.

Dolphins at Patriots: Good Enough to Lose Close – Part 2

Same headline as last week for New England, which is 0-2 for the first time since 2001 after losing to another contender at home in a one-score game. But in many ways, it was an old-school Patriots game:

  • Bill Belichick’s defense helped contain the hottest passing duo from last week, holding Tua Tagovailoa to 249 yards and only 40 for Tyreek Hill.
  • He did this at the expense of allowing Miami to get more from its ground game, which would have been fine if not for a 43-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter by Raheem Mostert.
  • The Patriots blocked a 49-yard field goal in the third quarter.
  • Rookie corner Christian Gonzalez came away with an interception in the fourth quarter when the Dolphins were at midfield with a first down.
  • An aborted snap by Miami killed a 3rd-and-1, then the Dolphins missed a 55-yard field goal that would have given them a 10-point lead with 2:14 left to all but ice it, leaving the door open for the Patriots.

But instead of a touchdown drive, the Patriots still had to put Mac Jones on the field with a bunch of No. 2 and No. 3 wideouts (at best). Bradley Chubb made his presence felt with a huge sack that set up a 2nd-and-18, which the Patriots never recovered from.

On a 4th-and-4 at Miami’s 33, Jones had to hurry a pass under pressure, and it was caught well short of the sticks. The Patriots sunk their 2022 season with an ill-advised lateral in Vegas, but this time the lateral was necessary. It almost worked too, but the offensive lineman was reviewed to come up inches short of the first down. Game over.

Just like last week against Philadelphia, the Patriots were inches away from converting a fourth down on a potential game-winning touchdown drive. I think it is possible the Patriots would have gone for 2 and the win here, but we’ll never know as they came up short again.

It wasn’t the kind of performance that should be vaulting the Dolphins up the lists of power rankings, Super Bowl odds, or Tagovailoa for MVP. But it was good enough for a win against a team that used to be harder to beat. Alas, Tagovailoa is the first quarterback to win 5 straight games against Belichick. He hasn’t played the best against his defense by any means, but this is where the AFC East is now in the 2020s.

Chargers at Titans: Nothing Has Changed for the Chargers

Chargers coach Brandon Staley wanted no part of hearing about the Jacksonville playoff loss after the Chargers fell to 0-2 with another blown lead.

Technically, Staley is right that a January playoff loss is not the reason the Chargers lost these last two games in the 2023 season. However, I don’t think he gets to avoid this narrative as his team continues to blow games it seemed to have in hand, and his defense continues to suck with the game on the line.

I would pose these questions to Staley.

Why is it Year 3 and every game still comes down to you relying on Justin Herbert to perform miracles and make sure the defense doesn’t have to come back on the field to blow it?

You say your roster has finishers, yet why aren’t any of them on defense, your specialty? In Herbert’s 5 game-winning drives last season, this is how much time was left on the clock so that your defense couldn’t find a way to blow it:

  • 4 seconds vs. Titans
  • 15 seconds vs. Cardinals
  • 0 seconds vs. Falcons
  • Walk-off in overtime vs. Broncos
  • 9:29 vs. Browns, who later missed a game-winning 53-yard field goal with 0:11 left

Congrats on the missed field goal. Your defense hasn’t produced a legitimate stop to preserve a close win since forcing the Steelers into a 4th-and-32 in 2021. By the way, that was the game you blew a 27-10 lead in the fourth quarter of, and you again relied on a Herbert touchdown pass to regain the lead.

The Titans couldn’t throw last week in New Orleans, and yet Ryan Tannehill almost couldn’t miss in Week 2 against this defense. He was 20-of-24 for 246 yards with his below-average receivers. The only issue was taking 5 sacks as the revamped line was missing rookie first-round pick Peter Skoronski.

But once again, the Chargers were in a dogfight after leading 11-0 early. Herbert’s second touchdown pass to Keenan Allen gave the Chargers a 21-17 lead with 14:38 left. On the next drive, the Chargers ran the ball on 3rd-and-4 and punted on a 4th-and-2 at their own 42. Weren’t you the 4th-down guy for a hot minute in 2021?

Later, the Titans scored a go-ahead touchdown, which was answered by a game-tying field goal to force overtime by the Chargers. Short throws and a big 3rd-down sack by Harold Landry kept the Chargers out of the end zone from the game-winning touchdown.

In overtime, Herbert threw three straight incompletions as the team missed Austin Ekeler against a Tennessee defense that loves shutting the run down. The Titans had no issues moving into range for Nick Folk to hit a 41-yard field goal to win the game 27-24.

The Chargers have lost 4 straight games, and this was actually the first time they allowed fewer than 30 points during this stretch.

At this rate, Staley will soon learn what a finisher looks like on the Chargers. It will be the person who takes him to an empty room to see the boss.

Jets at Cowboys: Back to Reality

There was a lot of wishful thinking that the Jets could salvage this season after losing Aaron Rodgers and upsetting the Bills on Monday night. But either the Cowboys are too good, or the Jets are going to be awful, because this 30-10 rout was tough to watch. The Jets basically made one play on offense, a 68-yard touchdown pass to Garrett Wilson. Otherwise, Zach Wilson was 11-of-26 for 102 yards and 3 picks.

At least the picks didn’t happen until it was 27-10 in the fourth quarter, but the Jets failed this game in the sense that they couldn’t even be competitive as the “run the ball and play great defense” team they need to be with Wilson at quarterback.

Wilson ended up accounting for 36 of the team’s 64 rushing yards. You would have thought Breece Hall could have been leaned on, but he had 4 carries for 9 yards. The fuck is that?

Defensively, the Jets forced 0 turnovers, allowed 9-of-18 on third down, and Dak Prescott (31-of-38 for 255 yards) generally did what he wanted to. CeeDee Lamb caught 11-of-13 targets for 143 yards, so it’s not like you can’t throw on these guys like they’re the 2009 Jets or something.

With 15 more Jets games to go, it’s really a shame what happened to Rodgers. This team’s brutal early schedule was going to be tough with him, but there are going to be more ugly days ahead for this team.

Dallas, my Super Bowl pick in the NFC, is looking great at 70-10 on the scoreboard, only the 7th team since 1970 to be at least plus-60 through two games. But it will be nice to see them play a real team who can hit back instead of these New York punching bags.

Oh shit, they get Arizona next too. At least they face the 49ers in Week 5. With the Eagles not impressive so far, the Cowboys and 49ers may be the best in the NFC this season.

49ers at Rams: Shanahan Continues Mastery of McVay

The 49ers have the most talented offense in the NFL and look like the most complete team so far. But after this 30-23 win, I think it’s safe to say the No. 1 thought on the minds of football fans is can Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua co-exist on the Rams and build the greatest receiving duo of all time? All these guys do is get open and catch the ball, so imagine if there were two of them.

Nacua did it again, going over 10 catches and 100 yards for the second week in a row, the only player to ever start his career like that. His 15 catches are a single-game rookie record. He also has 25 catches in his first two games, shattering Earl Cooper’s record of 19 for the 1980 49ers. Before you credit Joe Montana for running Bill Walsh’s innovative West Coast Offense for that record, it was actually Steve DeBerg at quarterback in those games. Incredibly, Cooper was just a fullback (later converted to tight end) and only caught 213 passes in 93 games in his career.

But this surprising rise of a 5th-round rookie in Nacua, who only caught 107 passes in 4 years of college football at Washington and BYU, can only be surpassed by the continued success of Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant.

Purdy is the only quarterback in NFL history to go 10-0 in the first 10 games where he threw at least 20 passes. He did not have a touchdown pass in this one, but he led the offense effectively again, and he ran for a big game-tying touchdown before halftime with 1 second left where failure would have meant no points.

The second half looked closer to last year when the 49ers harassed Stafford into sacks and turnovers. They did it again, picking off a pair of passes. The big one came with the Rams down 27-20 with 4:58 left. While the 49ers went three-and-out after that pick, they were already in the red zone and added a field goal for a 30-20 lead.

Eventually, the Rams ended up kicking a 38-yard field goal on the final snap that only accomplished screwing over bettors who had 49ers -7.5 in this 30-23 final.

The Rams did not have a play longer than 20 yards, but you have to hope they can get Kupp and Nacua going together in a few weeks. Stafford’s ability to lock onto a receiver may be unmatched seeing as how the only two 1,900-yard receivers in NFL history (Calvin Johnson and Cooper Kupp) had Stafford at quarterback. It can be a blessing and a curse but imagine if he finds a way to use both receivers together.

Despite the loss, Rams fans should feel better about this season than they did two weeks ago. McVay can still coach, but unfortunately, Shanahan continues getting the best of him.

Commanders at Broncos: Did They Hire the 7-9 Version of Sean Payton?

When the Broncos were up 21-3, I figured I could get away with a single paragraph recap of how Sean Payton got Russell Wilson to hit some deep balls with his new toy (Marvin Mims), and it was an easy first win for Denver. But nope, they blew a league-high 7th fourth-quarter lead since 2022. The 18-point blown lead is the largest in Wilson’s career, and he took 7 sacks and his lost fumble in the second quarter was the turning of the tide in this one.

Washington hung in there with Sam Howell passing for 299 yards against what was supposed to be a strong secondary. The Commanders seemed to get stronger after Logan Thomas took a cheap shot from Kareem Jackson on a fourth-and-goal touchdown before halftime to cut the lead to 21-11. Denver’s offense continued to fall apart from there while the Commanders were able to take the lead for good early in the fourth quarter just as they did a week ago against the Cardinals.

Denver hurt itself with another penalty to wipe out a three-and-out, which Washington turned into a touchdown drive and 35-24 lead. The Wilson-led offense took a while to get a field goal to make it 35-27, then used timeouts to get the ball back with 48 seconds, needing 87 yards.

It will go down as a forgotten one-minute drill that worked out for a touchdown after an incredible tipped Hail Mary was caught from 50 yards out with no time left. But instead of forcing the third overtime game of the day, the Broncos had a specific play design that needed to go to Courtland Sutton, and Wilson’s pass was not caught.

I think you could easily argue defensive pass interference, which would have put the ball at the 1-yard line and a retry. But story of Payton’s career, he couldn’t get an obvious DPI flag in a big spot.

After losing winnable home games to the Raiders and Commanders and going to Miami next, the Broncos could easily be staring at an 0-3 start.

Giants at Cardinals: Was That Tanking?

The battle for New York’s worst football team was in rare form with the Giants doing their best to topple the Jets, who were simultaneously getting crushed by Dallas. Always nice to see something you’ve never seen before, and the Giants did that for those of us born after Alien came out in 1979.

The 2023 Giants were outscored 60-0 through six quarters of action this year. That has only been topped since the 1970 merger by the 1978 Baltimore Colts, who were outscored 86-0 early into Game 3 of their season before they finally got on the board. Worse, the Cardinals were the team doing this to New York. The same Cardinals who are projected to finish with the worst record and No. 1 pick.

But for a half, the Cardinals didn’t seem interested in Caleb Williams. Not when Josh Dobbs was running through defenders on a 23-yard touchdown run. But while we were making fun of the Giants, a switch appeared to be flipped at halftime. These teams came out much differently, and the Giants were able to explode for 31 points in the second half alone to come back and win the game after trailing 28-7 with 9:34 left in the third quarter.

My criticism of Jonathan Gannon’s defense in Philadelphia was that good, smart quarterbacks could tear his scheme apart with quick, short passes. Suddenly, that pass rush doesn’t get there at all, and the coverage is soft as he just wants to avoid the big plays. Well, the Giants immediately came out in the third and hit a 58-yard bomb to rookie speedster Jalin Hyatt. It also hurts when you don’t have players like Haason Reddick, Fletcher Cox, and Darius Slay to make your defense better.

Daniel Jones added a few occasional scrambles, but he basically picked apart the Cardinals on his way to 321 yards passing. He was only sacked 3 times for 9 yards, so the pass rush did not repeat the success it had against Washington last week.

The Cardinals were a missed field goal away from scoring on their first 6 drives, but they were scoreless on the final 4 drives. While James Conner had a big game with over 100 rushing yards, it is hard to say it didn’t look like this team was mailing it in and accepting defeat after the Giants tied it at 28.

With 4:25 left, the Cardinals went 1-yard Conner run, 3-yard Conner run, back-to-back false starts on the same player, and then a failed completion for 5 yards before a three-and-out punt. Weak.

Jones drove the Giants into field goal range from there and Graham Gano was good from 34 yards away with only 19 seconds left. Dobbs’ Hail Mary was knocked away incomplete and the game was over.

Maybe the Cardinals are not going to be 2-15 bad after blowing a pair of 4th-quarter leads to start this season. But when you look at the schedule, they might not win until November now after blowing this opportunity.

But maybe that’s perfectly fine with this franchise.

Seahawks at Lions: Detroit Better Hope This Isn’t Another Tie-Breaker

These teams play fun games. Last year, it was a 48-45 shootout, but this one was better since there were actually lead changes. Seattle led wire-to-wire last year, and that win was the main reason the 9-8 record was good enough for the No. 7 seed ahead of Detroit. The Lions better hope that doesn’t happen again after losing another winnable home game to this team.

The best quarterback duel of Week 2 was naturally Geno Smith vs. Jared Goff as everyone expected. Both were sharp, but Goff’s pick-six, which ended a nearly 400-attempt streak without a pick, looked like it would doom the Lions, putting them in a 31-21 hole with 8:04 left.

But Goff came right back to lead a touchdown drive, then Smith took a horrific sack on a third down back to his own 3, helping to set Goff up at the 50 with 1:44 left. However, Seattle’s defense held after it seemed like Detroit was content with overtime.

The Seahawks won the toss and received first. Just like the team used to do best in the early days of Russell Wilson a decade ago, the offense drove right down the field for a game-winning touchdown to end it without the opponent having a chance. Tyler Lockett’s second touchdown of the day secured the 37-31 win.

In the end, the right team won. The Lions were minus-3 in turnovers and turned it over on downs twice. The Seahawks missed 2 field goals in the second quarter too.

There is some “live by the sword, die by the sword” with coach Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness. Should the Lions have gone for it on a 4th-and-2 at their own 45 while leading 21-17 with 32 seconds left in the third quarter? They failed and the Seahawks only had to go 45 yards for the go-ahead touchdown, which they scored. Traditionally, teams punt there, hope to back them up, and protect the lead. Get the job done on your next offensive possession, and it’s not like points were guaranteed on a first down at midfield if you convert.

But it is what it is. The Lions are 1-1, winning a game they easily could have lost and losing a game they could have easily won. They just better hope they remain the team to beat in the NFC North and don’t have to compete with Seattle for another wild card tie-breaker.

Packers at Falcons: Hamstrung in Atlanta

The Falcons made this a lot harder than it needed to be. The spread swung from Falcons +1.5 to Falcons -3 due to the Packers not having their best running back (Aaron Jones), best wide receiver (Christian Watson), and best offensive lineman (David Bakhtiari). Even though Jordan Love was again very aggressive, he avoided any picks, but he did throw for just 151 yards. His running game only hooked him up with 61 yards, so the loss of Jones was crucial.

Running powered the Atlanta offense again with 211 yards on the ground, though Desmond Ridder did run for 39 yards and a huge touchdown himself on a 4th-down call while the Falcons trailed 24-12 in the fourth quarter. He also threw for 237 yards this week.

The red zone is where Atlanta made life difficult on themselves (2-for-5 on touchdowns). The offense was fortunate the defense held Green Bay without a first down on its 3 possessions in the fourth quarter.

Head coach Arthur Smith also made quite the gambling by going for a 4th-and-1 at the Green Bay 23 with 2:08 left in a 24-22 game. Granted, no one wants to kick a field goal and give an offense nearly 2 full minutes to get a game-winning field goal. But a failure there on a quick snap and there was a fair chance he’d never see the ball again. It almost looked like Smith would go for it again on a fourth down to really ice the game and make the field goal the last snap, but he kicked the 25-yard field goal with 57 seconds left.

Still, that is plenty of time to get into range these days, but Love was unable to get a first down. His pass on 4th down was not bad, but the receiver looked like he trapped it, so it was ruled incomplete. Even if he caught it, an illegal shift penalty would have negated the gain and set up 4th-and-15.

Fun win for Atlanta but being the home team and taking on a team without three of its best players definitely helped this week.

Bears at Buccaneers: Justin Fields Is Not a Serious QB

I find it hard to believe Justin Fields’ average time to throw was 3.03 seconds, the 6th-slowest time in Week 2 (source: Next Gen Stats). Every time I saw a clip of him today he was holding the ball forever and taking awful sacks. He ended up taking 6 sacks and the running game was held in check again with only 67 yards, including just 3 from Fields despite his short touchdown run.

While D.J. Moore had 104 yards and Chase Claypool showed up to catch a touchdown, it was still a poor offensive performance. The Buccaneers won out in yards 437-236, but it was still only a 20-17 game with 2:24 left.

Like last year, Fields only needed a field goal and couldn’t get in position. He tried to throw a screen pass to his running back and Shaq Barrett made a great play to snatch the ball for a pick-six.

You can certainly give credit to the defender for blowing this up, but that looked like a play that was going to gain no positive yards anyway. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield efficiently threw for 317 yards with 171 of them going to Mike Evans. The Buccaneers have scored 20 points in back-to-back games, something they did once all last season with the King of Kings at quarterback.

It was my prediction that Mayfield would outplay Tom Brady this year, but the Bucs would have a worse record because of what will happen in close games without the LOAT. That could still happen. Plus, beating up on the Bears and Vikings (two awful defenses in 2022) is not the best argument for this being anything but fool’s gold. But Mayfield is making this work so far.

Raiders at Bills: Buffalo Can Take a Deep Breath

Bills fans may have been nervous after the Raiders marched right down the field for a touchdown to start the game. But that was the highlight of the day for Vegas. Josh Allen played a very safe, controlled, and efficient game (31-of-37 for 274 yards and 3 TD) and spread the ball around well. The run defense held Josh Jacobs to -2 yards on 9 carries. They intercepted Jimmy Garoppolo twice, including a play where Matt Milano just flat out stole the ball from Jacobs. James Cook ran for 123 yards even if he padded a bit with a 36-yard run while the Bills led 38-10 at the two-minute warning.

But it was an all-around dominant team performance from the Bills, who might still be the biggest threat to the Chiefs in getting back to the Super Bowl. We’ll see how Baltimore and Cincinnati shake out.

Colts at Texans: Steichen’s First Win

When the Colts hired Shane Steichen and drafted Anthony Richardson, the logical connection was always that he could develop him on the Jalen Hurts curve that he did in Philadelphia. But maybe something a lot of us forgot here is that this means Richardson could be an effective goal-line rusher and score a lot of touchdowns like Hurts did last year on his way to a record.

I noticed it right away in Week 1 when it looked like Richardson was going to score 2 rushing touchdowns against Jacksonville before he left the game injured on the last drive. That is why Richardson to score twice (+1400 at FanDuel) was one of my favorite props this week. I just didn’t expect him to score on runs of 18 and 15 yards in the game’s first 5:47.

I also didn’t think he’d leave the game with a concussion suffered on the second one.

It is not a good sign at all that Richardson was unable to finish either of his first two games, but for what little we have seen, the potential is exciting. Even Hurts only has 3-of-33 career touchdown runs from longer than 10 yards out, so Richardson exploding like that looked closer to a young Vince Young (2006) or Lamar Jackson (2019). Just hope he can stay healthy, but Gardner Minshew was a heck of an addition as someone who can step in and sling it in a familiar system. Minshew only entered the game at 12:45 in the second quarter and still passed for 114 yards in the quarter, which is almost as many as Joe Burrow had for Cincinnati in his first six quarters this year (117).

As for Houston, it was a tough day with most of the starting offensive line out and no help from the running game from C.J. Stroud, who took 6 sacks and had to play from a double-digit deficit almost the entire game. But even in that suboptimal situation, he was 30-of-47 for 384 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no picks. He did lose one of two fumbles, similar to last week. But it is a good learning experience for the rookie.

After not getting a win over Houston last year, the Colts should feel more optimistic about the Steichen era after Sunday’s 31-20 win. But for a fanbase that has seen health problems end the tenures of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, it is a worrisome start for Richardson in that area.

Next week: Not looking great.