Tag: Myles Garrett

2026 NFL Predictions

2026 NFL Predictions
~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

It’s that time of year for my final NFL predictions for the 2026 season. I got cut off only about a third of the way through my detailed team previews because of a budget cut on the site that let me write as many words as I wanted the last three years. That was an unexpected bummer.

Then I got sick in August, which further delayed things. So, I didn’t get a full look at all the teams I wanted to, but I feel ready for this season to start, and maybe instead of devoting so many hours a week to that kind of writing, I can work on my drive stats database I’ve been yearning to build for years.

Someday I may predict the right Super Bowl outcome, but I cannot imagine anyone had Seahawks (+6000) over Patriots (+8000) for 2025 based on those preseason odds. However, I will not include the Packers for the third year in a row.

Right Super Bowl team, Wrong Super Bowl outcome.

In case you missed them, these were the 11 team previews I was able to complete at 365Scores before August:

For a more recent mini-preview (read: 4,000 words) of the 2026 season, I did just cover 10 burning questions, including whether the Seahawks can repeat, if the Rams can be the superteam that gets the job done in February, and if the Chiefs’ dynasty is over.

My theme for 2026 is we get to see if 2025 was a changing of the guard or a façade of one. I think it’s going to be the latter, and the oddsmakers seem to agree as none of the record seven new division winners are favored to repeat in the division in 2026.

Change and the NFL are pretty synonymous. You have 10 new head coaches and 21 new offensive coordinators in the league this year. Those are abnormally high numbers, so things could look quite different on that fact alone, especially when you’re swapping out some of the longest-tenured coaches in the league like Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, and Sean McDermott.

That’s why I think, and have predicted below, that we could probably see a record-tying seven new division winners. With that said, on with the predictions. I think you know which players have come and gone this year, so I’m going to stick more to specific predictions on what I think can happen with these teams this year.

One thing I’ve learned about doing this since 2011 is that you can get jaded over thinking you have a team figured out in the summer. Then by the time Week 7 comes, they’re playing a big game on the schedule where six of the players you thought were important are all injured, benched, or traded. That’s the reality of the NFL. It’d be incredible if you can turn off injuries, but they’re inevitable and unpredictable.

Granted, you can probably pencil in Josh Simmons, Christian Watson, and Christian McCaffrey for some ailments this year. But injuries remain the great equalizer.

2026 NFL Predictions
NFL 2026 Predictions: Choose your fighter.

NFC WEST

1. Los Angeles Rams (14-3)

The other big theme this year is the Rams’ pursuit of a super team to end the streak where teams with +500 preseason Super Bowl odds or better are 0-for-20 at winning the Super Bowl since 1996.

This team probably should have gone the distance last year, but they blew the No. 1 seed by blowing leads of 16 and 19 to the Eagles and Seahawks, and they underperformed as a big favorite in losses to the Panthers, Falcons, and 49ers with Mac Jones. The secondary was an issue, but they addressed that by adding two corners from the Chiefs. Okay, don’t love that idea, but making the pass rush better with Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald is the real key here. If Donald is 75% of what he was, that’s going to be something to watch.

The offense should still be great too, though I have some concerns if Davante Adams (old) gets injured again, or if Puka Nacua goes nuts off the field or gets disciplined by the league with some stuff out there that’s not great. But if everyone is healthy, they’re fine.

What can bring it all down? McVay’s weird conservatism in big spots, and of course special teams, which were terrible last year and cost them multiple games. You can be the best team in football and still watch your season burn because of an error on special teams. Watch the 1998 Vikings for proof of that.

They’re not going to challenge 20-0 or the scoring record. But I think they make amends for last year’s losses and get wins over the Eagles and Seahawks this year to make up the difference for the record they should have had in 2025.

2. Seattle Seahawks (13-4)

Repeating is hard because you usually have to do it a different way, and I don’t think the Seahawks have elevated their roster the way the 2004 Patriots did by adding Corey Dillon at running back. In fact, the Seahawks lost their Super Bowl MVP back and replaced him with a rookie while also losing their offensive coordinator.

But I do want to see if Sam Darnold has a post-1986 Phil Simms or post-2007 Eli Manning type of bump in efficiency and confidence now that he’s a champion who made it through a playoff run with no turnovers. I think JSN is less lethal this year, but they can open things up more by getting Rashid Shaheed better involved as a deep threat. They seemed to only understand how to use him on special teams after that trade was made midseason.

Defense should still be top tier but maybe not No. 1 in scoring again as I do trust Macdonald there, and the core is still young and growing. I think of all the teams that took a considerable leap last year, Seattle regresses the least, but I don’t see another fluke 2PC to beat the Rams in December, so I think the Rams take care of business in those late games and that provides the final push to win the NFC West for LA.

I originally had Seattle at 12-5 and added a win somewhere.

3. San Francisco 49ers (9-8)

Can you really bet on Kyle Shanahan in an even-numbered year when you look at 2018, 2020, and 2024? Even in 2022, they started 3-4 and were bailed out by the CMC trade and Brock Purdy surprisingly being good for a Mr. Irrelevant rookie. But it just seems like every other year this team falls off a cliff, and mass injury has been a culprit.

Flash forward to today, and you no longer have Jauan Jennings or Brandon Aiyuk at WR. Ricky Pearsall is injured and out. They brought in Mike Evans, coming off his worst season (injured already too). George Kittle is coming off a playoff Achilles injury, so I expect him to be worse this year. CMC already struggled to hit big plays last year but made it through that huge workload they gave him. I have fears he won’t survive this whole season. The defense is getting Fred Warner and Nick Bosa back, but lost Saleh as coordinator again. Still don’t love the secondary.

I think 9-8 is a fair compromise between not completely falling apart but still not returning to the playoffs. The schedule has enough easy games to get to a winning record, and I’ve always been pro-Purdy, but this goofy offseason with the injuries and the owner seeking $160 bareback sex in an Ohio trailer park, combined with Shanahan’s mysterious car accident they tried to cover up just reeks of a cursed team that shouldn’t experience any postseason glory.

4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13)

A money-laundering operation to boost stats for Trey McBride and Michael Wilson. That’s how you could describe the 2025 Cardinals once Jacoby Brissett took over, and maybe that’s how they play in 2026 too. I will note Matt LaFleur’s team moved the ball really well in the preseason and they added Jeremiah Love to the backfield, so if he somehow pulled off a good record in a brutal division, he should probably be Coach of the Year.

But I just don’t see Brissett and that defense leading to many wins for this team against this schedule.

AFC WEST

1. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

Yeah, while the Chiefs and Broncos fans are in a pissing match going into Week 1, I think the Chargers sneak out of this one with their first division title since 2009. It’s the same 11-6 record as the last two years, but I’m accounting for two things:

1. Some defensive regression after losing Jesse Minter to the Ravens.

2. In 2024, Ladd McConkey was Justin Herbert’s only good receiver. In 2025, the receivers played better, but the offensive tackles were injured. What if 2026 is the year the receivers are deeper and the OTs are healthy? With Mike McDaniel taking over as OC, you could see more big plays and unleashing Herbert’s arm in ways Greg Roman wouldn’t, so his best season (MVP?) is absolutely on the table here.

Of course, it’s the NFL, so even if those offensive players stay healthy, the defense could be a mash unit that falls to the bottom third of the league. But I trust Jim Harbaugh, and I think OC is the job McDaniel was made for. Not a head coach. I think it works out for them and they sneak past the Chiefs and Broncos to win the AFC West.

I know everyone is pointing to the brutal schedule in Weeks 3-10 but I think the soft beginning and end can be capitalized on, and they’ll win some of those tough games in the middle too. Does it finally lead to a playoff win? Well, find out at the bottom.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (10-7)

I didn’t get a chance to write the article “Why did the Chiefs miss the playoffs?” that was going to have a lot of detailed stats and comparisons between 2018-25. However, I think pointing out these five plays is a pretty telling summary:

  • Travis Kelce wipes out Xavier Worthy on the first pass play of the season in Brazil and tears his labrum.
  • Kelce turns a go-ahead touchdown pass in the fourth quarter into a red zone interception vs. Eagles.
  • Trevor Lawrence falls on the ground after the snap and still gets up and runs for a game-winning touchdown.
  • Kelce turns a 20-yard catch in the fourth quarter against Houston into a game-sealing interception.
  • Mahomes scrambles out of the pocket with two third-string tackles on the field and tears his ACL while trying to throw a pass away.

Anything that could go wrong did go wrong for the Chiefs last year. Even opposing kickers made 31-of-32 field goals (96.9%) while Harrison Butker missed nine field goals or extra points.

The Chiefs have been declining on third down for the last four years, but 2025 was rock bottom with the offense slipping to No. 22 and the defense to No. 29, creating the first negative conversion differential in the Mahomes era.

Chiefs - 3rd Down Differential

I recently wrote about the Chiefs’ struggles to find Phase III weapons for Mahomes when they’re still relying on his Phase I tight end, who has one foot in retirement. Rashee Rice is not trustworthy at all, we don’t know if Xavier Worthy is actually good at this league yet, and you can’t even rely on left tackle Josh Simmons to be there so far in his career.

It’s not a pretty picture in Kansas City as you see the effects of poor cap management and drafting catching up with this roster. With that said, they’re still a prime candidate for positive regression after going 1-10 in close games last year with four blown leads against a tough schedule. The Chiefs were rarely down by double digits in 2025. They just were one of the least clutch teams you’ll ever see, a total departure from 2024 when they were 12-0 in such games.

That’s why I think even if opening night against Denver is bad, they can beat up on the weak teams they rarely got to see (and still smoked with Mahomes) last year, and that should be enough to get to 10-7.

But I think when they play the Seahawks and Rams, you are going to see why this team’s absolute best-case scenario is getting smacked in the Super Bowl by one of those teams. That’s why they need to go back to the drawing board for 2027 as they’re not ready to get back to the top of the league.

3. Denver Broncos (9-8)

Including the playoffs, Denver was 8-2 at game-winning drive opportunities, which ties the single-season record for most GWDs (8). But that makes them ripe for regression this year, and the way they returned basically the same roster plus Jaylen Waddle (No. 2 on a meaningless stat team with constant nagging injuries) just makes me think we will see similar results, except those 13-11 and 10-7 wins over the Jets and Raiders suddenly become losses against better competition as the West divisions play each other.

They’re too good to totally fall apart, but what an early schedule with Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, Chargers, and Seahawks. Phew.

I’m still not sure what to make of Bo Nix. He seems to be elite at avoiding sacks. Sean Payton can put the ball in his hands a ton and win games, but they’re still mostly low-scoring games where he comes back at the end with a great drive or two. His efficiency is not up to par yet.

Also, this YPA stat for Nix is one of the weirdest splits I’ve ever seen:

But I think it’s your classic case of a team taking a step back after a run of close wins to get a No. 1 seed no one saw coming. I also am not a big fan of that Jason Licht-type strategy of bringing the whole band back together plus one addition of a wideout I think is not a championship-caliber player in Waddle.

4. Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)

I predict rookie Fernando Mendoza takes over for Kirk Cousins before Halloween. Maybe even before Columbus Day or whatever the fvck they call it these days. I just don’t see much going for an offense with a quarterback who can’t move and a bottom two wide receiver corps. There’s only so many plays you can design for Ashton Jeanty (already injured) and tight end Brock Bowers.

But I’ll be curious to see what Mendoza can do in a Kubiak offense. They’re just not ready to win games this year, and I think they end up taking Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) in the 2027 draft.

NFC NORTH

1. Green Bay Packers (11-6)

I guess I can’t quit picking the Packers as the Five-Year Rule creeps into Year 4 for Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur. For a brief moment, they looked like the best team in the NFL last year, then they lost two key difference makers (Tucker Kraft and Micah Parsons) to ACL tears and never won another game.

My thought is what if Kraft and Parsons are back in time for the most important games? What if losing WR depth like Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks actually helps Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed, and Christian Watson play better in better defined roles for Love? Josh Jacobs is a piece of shit, allegedly, but I don’t think that makes or break their season.

I still like what the Packers are selling here in what should be a hotly contested race.

2. Detroit Lions (10-7)

An easier schedule and a healthy return of Sam LaPorta should help the Lions get back to the playoffs. But while I think losing David Montgomery makes it more likely Jahmyr Gibbs can win OPOY, I think it hurts their depth and keeping him fresh. I’m also curious to see how moving Penei Sewell to the left pans out.

Defense, it’s still on Aidan Hutchinson to deliver a great season. Don’t expect greatness from that unit but good enough to win 10 games. Just think Green Bay has more going for it to get the head-to-head win at Lambeau in Week 18 to win the division. Possible SNF Game 272 right there.

3. Chicago Bears (10-7)

Another regression candidate after the Bears won a record 7 games after trailing after the 2-minute warning in 2025. But my thought process is what if Caleb Williams improves in his second year of Ben Johnson’s system and the second year for Colston Loveland and Luther Burden in this league? What if losing D.J. Moore makes Williams realize Burden is the real deal and can be the Amon-Ra St. Brown in this offense? His numbers throwing to him are way better than two years of throwing to Rome Odunze.

Sure, the close wins and leading the league in turnover differential make the Bears a prime candidate for regression and a bad record. But keep in mind the Bears were only 7-6 at GWD opportunities including the playoffs. That’s a great record in the context of league average, but it’s not screaming they have to regress to 1-10 or the ridiculousness the 2025 Chiefs went through after 2024. They still lost a lot of close ones, including the 49ers late in the year and the Rams’ playoff game even after that miracle Hail Mary.

Safety Dillon Thieneman was one of my favorite picks in the first round of the draft. I trust Johnson and Williams enough to figure this out to get to 10 wins. We’ll see where that lands for the playoffs though.

4. Minnesota Vikings (9-8)

I do see the NFC North producing four teams with a winning record for the second year in a row, which would join the 1935 West, 2023 AFC North, and 2025 NFC North as the only four divisions in history to do that.

Could we see the Vikings win the division? Sure, if Kevin O’Connell can go 13-4 and 14-3 in his first years with Kirk Cousins (2022) and Sam Darnold (2024), then going 12-5 or better with Kyler Murray is possible. Especially when you’re giving Murray the best receiving corps and defense of his career.

But Murray has bugged me for years in that I think he’s totally content with who he is and doesn’t strive for greatness. That’s why there was such little progress in seven years in Arizona. So, in a tough division, I think 9-8 is fair enough but do see the potential for more.

I also think that makes Murray a great value candidate for Comeback Player of the Year at +650 odds as some in the media seem determined to downplay Mahomes (+150), the favorite. If Murray has a glow-up year, he likely wins it.

AFC NORTH

1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4)

My first run through had the Ravens finishing 15-2, then I realized that’s too many wins for a rookie coach. But I think Lamar Jackson stays healthy, they blow fewer leads (Chargers only blew two under Jesse Minter in 2024-25), and Derrick Henry still has another fantastic season in him minus the fourth-quarter fumbles. The kicker hopefully doesn’t blow it this time too.

But I am curious to see if new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle asks Jackson to throw the ball more often this year. Get Zay Flowers more targets. More Mark Andrews with Likely gone. More short, quick throws.

I like the addition of Trey Hendrickson as a big-time edge rusher they’ve been lacking the last few years. I think the new interior offensive line will be fine. Don’t love the wideout depth but maybe one of those rookies (Ja’Kobi Lane?) will be a big positive.

Just very curious to see what this team looks like without Harbaugh after all those years.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)

They returned basically the entire offense minus Noah Fant (no biggie), so it should be business as usual there. Joe Burrow just has to stay healthy (redundant). The focus should be on the defense, which added four new starters. Dexter Lawrence is exactly the kind of player I’d say is overvalued and won’t have an impact worth the No. 10 pick, but we’ll see what he does.

The Bengals could be the 2025 Patriots this year. That team was favored to win 11 games when the schedule came out, and the 2026 Bengals were favored to win 15. It doesn’t look like that easy of a schedule, but you never know when those games against the Steelers turn into playing rookie Drew Allar with Germie Bernard as his No. 1 receiver instead of Aaron Rodgers and a full arsenal.

Zac Taylor should be coaching for his job here. He can’t miss the playoffs for a fourth year in a row. I still think Baltimore is better and will win the division, but I like the schedule and defensive additions enough to trust the Bengals one more time for 11-6.

The only question is would a wild card with the defense clearly being the improved unit be enough for voters to give Joe Burrow his DEI MVP even if his numbers are a step below 2024? As long as Dan Orlovsky is one of those voters, I think we know the answer to that. That’s why Burrow is my most-bet player for MVP.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

They finally got rid of Mike Tomlin after nine seasons without a playoff win. However, my ambition to make this a year where the Steelers improve to win 11-12 games (and maybe a playoff game) or implode with their worst record since 2003 didn’t come true. I just couldn’t do it. I like the roster too much but still not enough to go big in a loaded division, so 10-7 and fighting for the last wild card it is.

I think Aaron Rodgers plays better than he did last year now that he’s in a familiar offense with more than one good wideout. Let’s not forget McCarthy won 12 games in three years in a row with Dak in Dallas. He’s not a bad coach at all. Just not sure he’s got the goods to squeeze more out of this team than the typical 9-10 wins, no playoff win that Tomlin mastered the last decade.

But I think they’ll play hard for Rodgers in his final season and at least be entertaining to watch.

4. Cleveland Browns (3-14)

Woof, I think you’re going to see why you don’t hire a 60-year-old rookie coach in the NFL. It’s not all Todd Monken’s fault as he inherits an abysmal quarterback situation you can’t win from, and they traded Myles Garrett and lost Jim Schwartz. Real potential for a team that ranks 30th or worse on both sides of the ball here.

The only bright spots I see: Harold Fannin Jr. should catch 90+ balls and Jared Verse will have the quietest 8-to-10 sack season you’ll ever see.

Maybe they can get Arch Manning and a new coach in 2027.

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-7)

It might sound crazy but I think Jalen Hurts plays better without A.J. Brown this year. It happened in Detroit in 2016 after Calvin Johnson retired. Matthew Stafford had a better year, because you no longer have to worry about feeding someone his targets. Just throw to the open man, and in Hurts’ case, his success seems tied to who his offensive coordinator is, and they should be better in that area this year, which also bodes well for Saquon Barkley, who had a down year too.

But I think Makai Lemon and Wicks can help ease the loss of Brown, and it’s a career-year opportunity for DeVonta Smith as the new No. 1. They still have a really good line and defense too. Winnable division. In fact, they were the only team to repeat as division champion in 2025 (first time for the NFC East since 2004), and they’re the only one to be favored to repeat in 2026.

I could see a step back and no longer in real Super Bowl contention, but I think they still have enough to win the NFC East.

2. Dallas Cowboys (9-8)

A lot of new pieces on defense, including rookie safety Caleb Downs, could mean a quick turnaround after 2025’s expectedly poor job after trading Micah Parsons right before the season. If they click, then the offense should still be good (injuries worry me as the receiving corps isn’t great if you take away Pickens or Lamb), so you could see a return to the playoffs if they can sweep the Eagles.

But I think I’ve just grown bored with the Dak era, which is a repackaging of the Romo era at this point. So I don’t set very high expectations at all for Dallas anymore.

3. Washington Commanders (8-9)

I want to believe in Jayden Daniels as an MVP-caliber quarterback but 2025 gives you pause. Granted, he lost a lot of weapons to injuries, he was injured multiple times, and the defense still stunk. But they’ve turned over much of the defense, and Stefon Diggs should be a high-catch rate target for him to go with Terry McLaurin.

Sneaky potential to get back on the winning side of things if Daniels can play like he did as a rookie, and if Dan Quinn coaches like he thinks he’s getting fired if they’re not good. But I’m skeptical they’re going to have a winning season.

4. New York Giants (7-10)

You’ll see me repeat this two more times about the Saints and Titans, but one of the easiest picks for a new playoff team is matching up a second-year quarterback with a better coach after that quarterback didn’t have a great rookie year.

The Giants apply, and John Harbaugh was a good hire in a new situation where he can help change the culture. Plenty of pieces on defense for him, though I wish they drafted Caleb Downs or Sonny Styles instead of Arvell Reese, who didn’t force a single takeaway in college. Very skeptical of that top 10 pick.

But my biggest problem is the fit here. What bothered Harbaugh the last few years in Baltimore? Blowing leads and his quarterback out with injuries. What hurt the Giants in 2025? Blowing leads and his quarterback (Jaxson Dart) has a fetish for visiting the blue medical tent on an almost weekly basis.

The Giants get their injured weapons back, but can we trust Cam Skattebo to stay healthy? Malik Nabers to show no ill effects from a torn ACL? Dart to protect himself? He moved the ball well at times last year, but he didn’t really seize the moment in the close games they played, and the Giants were awful at closing games. Not exactly Harbaugh’s specialty in the 2020s.

It wouldn’t surprise me if it worked out, but I just can’t get behind them yet until I see Dart showing consistency and avoiding the injury report.

AFC EAST

1. Buffalo Bills (13-4)

I’m not a fan of promoting a coach who was part of the problem for why you didn’t get to the Super Bowl the last few years. But Joe Brady gets the job, meaning the offense should be consistent, which isn’t a bad thing given the results. Maybe adding D.J. Moore, who worked with Brady in Carolina, will help get them back to throwing outside the numbers and down the field more like when they had Stefon Diggs. Still want to see Dalton Kincaid stay healthy and play more snaps too.

But the biggest changes in replacing Sean McDermott come on defense with Jim Leonhard taking over as first-time coordinator. He was in Denver the last few years, though he had his most success as a player in Rex Ryan’s blitz-heavy systems, so I think he could bring a more volatile mix to the Bills.

Adding Bradley Chubb wasn’t one of those big moves like trying to get Myles Garrett, Maxx Crosby, or even Trey Hendrickson, but it could be better than Joey Bosa last year. Still, in another year where the Chiefs may not be in their way in January, we need to make sure the Bills can still get past teams like the Ravens, Bengals, and Broncos in January before we pencil them in for that elusive Super Bowl.

For that matter, they have to make sure they take the division back from the Patriots first, who only needed two seasons to get to the Super Bowl with Drake Maye. If the Bills fall flat again offensively in Houston in Week 1 like the last two seasons, it’ll be hard to take them seriously as a team that’s going to be demonstrably different in 2026.

The fear when you simply make an in-house promotion. At least they went outside for defensive vision.

2. New England Patriots (10-7)

Schedule merchants or serious contenders? We’ll find out in 2026 as the Patriots have to play the Seahawks, Steelers, Jaguars, Bills, and that’s just the first four weeks that include 3-of-4 teams they lost to last year. They also have to play the Bears, Packers, Lions, Chargers, Bills again, Chiefs, and Denver (hopefully with Bo Nix this time). Won’t be talking about an easy schedule this time.

Does replacing Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte with A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs help? Yeah, I think it does, which is why Drake Maye could actually have a better season than he did in 2025 against a tougher schedule, but he’ll get denied MVP love because the record won’t be as good. Funny how that works.

Also, I’d throw some cold water on thinking the receivers are a huge upgrade as he had a very efficient connection with Diggs, who caught 83.3% of his targets last year, a career year for someone who is over 70% for his career. A.J. Brown is more like a 64% receiver with no seasons above 70%. He wants more targets down the field, and he’s had success before under coach Vrabel in Tennessee, though that wasn’t a Josh McDaniels offense.

If Brown is properly motivated after what happened in Philly in 2025, I could see it being a really good fit. It’s not 2004 Terrell Owens or 2007 Randy Moss, but it could be nice. I just think people are overlooking how well Diggs played with Maye, and Boutte made some deep catches that Doubs may not necessarily get.

But it looks like a more talented offense this year, and you figure more touches for Kyle Williams and TreVeyon Henderson. The offensive line has to be better of course, and Maye has to get the ball out faster against better defenses. I’m still not sold he can get it done at a high level against top defenses, or that his game isn’t linked to well-timed deep shots schemed up by McDaniels.

But we’ll see where things go after that Super Bowl loss. If they start off poorly, that locker room might be looking funny at Vrabel’s message after his affair with Dianna Russini was exposed this offseason.

No Coach of the Year award for him this year.

3. New York Jets (5-12)

You hire Geno Smith to help you to a No. 1 pick in the draft like he did for the Raiders last year, then he goes out there and wins a few games with better weapons and positive regression on defense that actually produces some interceptions after 0 in 17 games last year.

I think the Jets are going to stink, but I also think they’ll win enough games against that schedule to take themselves out of the No. 1 pick. Go figure.

4. Miami Dolphins (3-14)

How many times am I going to do this with Miami? I pick them to win a few games, then they turn in the most meaningless 7-win season you’ll ever see. Still haven’t won a playoff game since the 2000 season and that’s not changing this year.

I’m intrigued by Malik Willis based on how he looked in Green Bay, but it’s malpractice to put him in an offense with Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert, and some third-round rookies like Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas as his wide receivers. Worst group in the league. Either them or Las Vegas.

I don’t think the defense is anything special either, so it’ll be hard to get a fair read on Willis this season. But at least it’s not another year of Tua Tagovailoa.

NFC SOUTH

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)

I actually think Baker Mayfield getting paid this week takes some of the chip off his shoulder this season, because I thought he’d ball out after betting on himself and getting that $60M+ AAV extension after the season. That’s not to say he’s going to slack off now, but I think you had a bigger edge without paying him before Week 1.

Still, I think a healthy Mayfield with Emeka Egbuka replacing Mike Evans as the full-time WR1 and a healthier Godwin/McMillan should lead to a fine season for the offense. I think Rueben Bain Jr. proves he should have been a top 10 pick and wins Defensive Rookie of the Year with 9+ sacks to help the defense.

I’ll still trust the Bucs to win the NFC South again. I wanted to pick someone else but just couldn’t do it. Bowles is coaching for his job and they get it done.

2. New Orleans Saints (6-11)

Another team I wanted to pump up as a surprise playoff team but just couldn’t justify it in the end. Tyler Shough did good things last year, though he did it against all teams without a winning record. What happens this year when he plays good teams? They drafted Jordyn Tyson, but living up to the worst fears pre-draft, he’s already injured.

Don’t love the rest of the skill players after Olave, don’t love the defense either. I’ll understand it if this works out, but this working out is likely Shough continuing to win some close games and the Saints squeezing out a 9-8 division title in the league’s weakest division.

3. Carolina Panthers (5-12)

They were in a home playoff game and leading the Rams late last year, but I think it’s smoke and mirrors. Close-game regression finally comes for Bryce Young, who still hasn’t had a true breakout year. More than that, you’re looking at a team that’s banged up in the trenches with multiple injuries to the offensive line before Week 1, they lost Rico Dowdle, and they lost Nic Scourton on a defense that still wasn’t anything special.

Easiest pick this year for a team to regress and miss the playoffs after making it last year. And I don’t know what you do with Bryce Young’s contract. I guess draft his replacement and bring him back for a fifth season after it hopefully lights a fire under him a la short king Drew Brees when the Chargers drafted Philip Rivers in 2004.

4. Atlanta Falcons (4-13)

I like Kevin Stefanski, but Tua going to the Falcons probably turns Atlanta into the NFC’s Mami. That mean starting 1-5 before stumbling to the most meaningless 6-7 win season you’ll ever see. Sure, Tua might get some gaudy completion percentage stats in an offense with these great weapons, but he’s never beating the good teams and doing anything relevant in the playoffs.

Michael Penix Jr. needs to play this year to see what they have there. We haven’t seen enough yet. Then on defense, you lose James Pearce Jr. to suspension and Jalon Walker for a while to injury. They were supposed to lead your pass rush. Not ideal.

But at least Bijan Robinson and Drake London will put up some numbers for Stefanski.

AFC SOUTH

1. Houston Texans (10-7)

The defense should still be great for DeMeco Ryans. This is really on C.J. Stroud to step up and earn that big extension. He played his best in his rookie year, he’s had awful luck with the health of his receivers, but he still has Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. Drake Maye was able to get some valuable catches out of Kayshon Boutte last year. They added David Montgomery at running back and a few new offensive linemen starters.

What happened to the Stroud who was elevating his teammates in 2023? We need to see that return, and with the same offensive coordinator (Nick Caley) in town, I’m not sure it’s that different.

But I’m still banking on that defense to lead the way to 10 wins and the division title.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)

Another team that went from 4-13 to 13-4 last year, I think the Jaguars take a step back in a division that should be stronger. They piled up five wins late in the year between sweeping the Titans, Colts (Daniel Jones injured) and annihilating the Jets. I still can’t get over the mistakes the Chiefs made in that loss on MNF that gave some early legitimacy to the Jaguars’ season.

But I see a team with unsettled skill positions, lost Etienne at RB, not sure what Travis Hunter is yet on either side of the ball, and I still don’t think Trevor Lawrence is ever going to ascend to elite status even though I guess it’s possible he picks it up in Year 2 of Liam Coen’s system.

But much like how they went from winning a playoff game to missing the playoffs in Year 2 of Doug Pederson in 2023, I think this team finishes 9-8 and second place at best in the AFC South.

3. Indianapolis Colts (8-9)

Was the first half of 2025 just a mirage when Daniel Jones was leading one of the most efficient offenses in NFL history? Was that their only shot after they swapped Michael Pittman Jr. for another veteran possession receiver in Keenan Allen while Jones is expectedly slower after rupturing his Achilles? Not to mention another year of tread on the tire for Jonathan Taylor.

But while I’m skeptical of the Colts, I will say I think tight end Tyler Warren has All-Pro potential this year. If you’re not sold on Alec Pierce as WR1 and think Jones will want to dump the ball off quicker this season post-injury, then using Warren in really inventive ways could be a way forward in this offense.

Defensively, I’m just not seeing the names that stand out like you get with the other AFC South teams above them. Shane Steichen should have asked Dolly Parton to record “9 to 8” for him as that seems to be the only win totals he knows, and I’m not going to pivot from that in 2026.

4. Tennessee Titans (6-11)

I like the idea of Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll (OC) getting another chance elsewhere in the NFL. I like giving Cam Ward a WR1 in Carnell Tate in the draft. I don’t necessarily like the money spent on random defenders, but hopefully Saleh will show his expertise there in getting better play.

Sure, a second-year quarterback with better coaching in a winnable division should be an easy pick for a breakout team. But I’m just not feeling this roster yet, and I think Ward might be the first Gen Z quarterback who could go down as a bust, but he’ll get on a podcast weekly and take accountability for it. “Yeah, I fucking sucked, no cap.” Just listen to some of his pressers from the last year if you don’t know what I’m talking about.

That’s cool when you’re a rookie, but let’s make sure we see some progress in Year 2 when you’re not playing a ridiculous schedule like he did last year. I’ll understand this one too if it hits as a winner, but I don’t trust it yet.

PLAYOFFS

Everyone wins 3-to-14 games in my vision of the 2026 season. The playoffs came down to tiebreakers in both conferences.

AFC

  • 1. Buffalo (13-4)
  • 2. Baltimore (13-4)
  • 3. LA Chargers (11-6)
  • 4. Houston (10-7)
  • 5. Cincinnati (11-6)
  • 6. Kansas City (10-7)
  • 7. New England (10-7)

On the last day of the season, the Steelers can either be the No. 5 seed or miss the playoffs altogether. The Ravens, even without an incentive to let the starters finish the game with the No. 2 seed locked up, end up getting their revenge for 2025 and eliminate Aaron Rodgers in his final game.

In the AFC playoffs, the Ravens eliminate New England in the 7-2 matchup. Then the big one, Justin Herbert works out his playoff demons and shreds the Chiefs to win his first playoff game. The Bengals take care of Houston after another bad outing for Stroud.

Like in the 2022 season, the Bengals go into Buffalo and despite the Bills finally getting the No. 1 seed this year, they lose in the first playoff game in their new stadium as the Bengals force Allen into mistakes and Burrow outplays him.

No longer a Harbaugh Bowl, but Ravens-Chargers is a battle and the Chargers find a way on the road in that one too as Herbert is on his 2003 Peyton Manning type of run. But like Manning that year, it comes crashing down in flames in the AFC Championship Game as Herbert throws multiple picks to Burrow’s defense, and the Bengals advance to the Super Bowl.

With that said, I do love this script in the way it shows the Bills and Ravens can lead the conference now that they’ve moved on from their longtime coaches, though they still can’t get it done in January for the Super Bowl with rookie coaches. The Chargers finally win some playoff games with Herbert. The Patriots sneak in but lose immediately. The Chiefs are still there but have their worst playoff run of the Mahomes era with their weakest roster. The Bengals finally go on a run similar to 2021-22.

It feels right to me.

NFC

  • 1. LA Rams (14-3)
  • 2. Green Bay (11-6)
  • 3. Philadelphia (10-7)
  • 4. Tampa Bay (9-8)
  • 5. Seattle (13-4)
  • 6. Detroit (10-7)
  • 7. Chicago (10-7)

We get another Round III between the Packers and Chicago, and this time, the Packers close and win. The Eagles frustrate Jared Goff once again and win that one in the snow. The Seahawks take care of business on a Monday night in Tampa Bay, the NFC South Invitational.

That sets up a third Rams-Seahawks game since Christmas. This time, the Rams force Darnold into a big turnover (or a Garrett sack) and win the game. The Packers defend home field against the Eagles for some 2024 revenge.

In the NFC Championship Game, Jordan Love plays well against that stacked defense, but Stafford and the Rams find a way to pull it out by a late FG to advance to the Super Bowl.

SUPER BOWL LXI

Yep, it’s a Super Bowl rematch form five years ago with the Rams hosting the Bengals at SoFi Stadium. Same result too. The Bengals are leading in the fourth quarter, Stafford works the ball down the field with Puka Nacua instead of Kupp this time, and they take a late lead that Burrow is unable to answer with Garrett and Donald both collapsing on him on pivotal plays to secure the victory.

Final: Rams 27, Bengals 24 (Super Bowl MVP: Puka Nacua)

The Rams end the drought for big preseason favorites after winning two games at SoFi by 3 points each to close the season. A familiar script for sure, but this is the decade of reboots and sequels, and this is a Los Angeles Super Bowl on Valentine’s Day.

What else would you expect? That is my vision for the 2026 season. Not a changing of the guard. Just a reshuffling to arrive at the same point as five years ago, then we can have a whole offseason to argue about the same things.

NFL 2025 Week 18 Predictions: For All the Marbles Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We’ve reached the final weekend of the NFL 2025 regular season, and it’s hard to remember a crazier season than this with so many new contenders and so many favorites falling off. Who would ever have believed that Philip Rivers (4) would throw more touchdowns in December than Patrick Mahomes (0 in 2 games) in 2025?

I just took a sneak peak at where my preseason predictions stand, and while I was expecting the absolute worst, it looks like they’ll either be slightly better than 2024, and no worse than 2020 or 2022. But I’ll post those results on Monday morning, and I plan on doing a pretty full week of content to wrap up 2025’s regular season and get going on playoff coverage for what should be one of the hardest postseasons to predict.

Is there any “gimme” game in this playoffs besides maybe the No. 5 seed in the NFC going to the NFC South winner? I don’t think so. Anyone can beat anyone here, and we’ve even seen the Rams already lose in Carolina, so even that 5-4 matchup is possibly up for grabs.

But we have three division title games (well, one is a quasi-division title game) this weekend, and we could see the final NFL games ever involving the likes of Travis Kelce, Pete Carroll, and Aaron Rodgers. Maybe the last game John Harbaugh ever coaches for the Ravens too, the 40th edition of Harbaugh vs. Tomlin.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 18: The Christmas Where Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen Wish They Were Gifted the Jets’ Defense
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 18

My picks have a parlay for the Ravens-Steelers, Seahawks-49ers, and two NFC South games. I also have picks for Myles Garrett, Travis Kelce, and a parlay of big winners.

NFL Week 18 Predictions

Hoping to finish strong, but it’s always a tough week when you don’t know how motivated the eliminated teams will be, or how many snaps starters will get for the playoff teams.

2025 NFL Week 18 Picks

CAR-TB and NO-ATL: Give me that NFC South special. The Bucs win on Saturday but still get eliminated on Sunday after Atlanta beats the Saints without Chris Olave (pulmonary embolism; get well soon, brother). 3-way tie at 8-9 goes to Carolina, which will hopefully be the impetus for the NFL to stop giving division winners a home playoff game automatically.

SEA-SF: It’s the biggest one and I respect Seattle being probably the best team in the league this year with all three losses coming in the final minute. But I am going with the 49ers at home as I think that offense is peaking and the Seahawks have a QB in Darnold who has to prove he won’t implode in these moments. I still don’t trust him.

CLE-CIN: Myles Garrett gets his sack record, Bengals still win by 8+. If I was Joe Burrow, I’d lay down to give Garrett the cheapest sack possible for the record. See if he takes the bait. Cause it’s Burrow, you know there will probably be other opportunities later in the game, but that’s what I would do to get it out of the way.

DAL-NYG: *Yawn* Dak beats Giants again to get Cowboys to 8-8-1.

GB-MIN: Are we really about to see Clayton Tune against a Flores defense? Yikes, what an awful way to lose the under 8.5 wins bet on the 2025 Vikings.

IND-HOU: Tempted to take Indy ATS, but I think Houston can win a 20-6 type of snoozer to end the season for the Colts with Riley Leonard at QB.

TEN-JAX: I have Jags winning the AFC South here, but I think Cam Ward can end his rookie season on a high note by at least covering the big spread.

KC-LV: Kenny Pickett returns? Chiefs should win but would it really be beneficial to the draft? Just get Travis Kelce his 10 yards quickly and be done with it.

DET-CHI: What a turnaround for these teams since Week 2. I think the Bears cover at home to get that No. 2 seed and drop Detroit to a losing record without Ben Johnson this year.

LAC-DEN: Trey Lance gets a start, and I know Keenan Allen needs 6 catches for a nice incentive. But I’m going to trust Harbaugh enough to not get embarrassed and cover the spread here. Denver wins the No. 1 seed though.

MIA-NE: This might have been interesting in Miami where the Patriots tend to struggle, but it’s at home in January, so they’ll beat up on a bad Miami team here.

WAS-PHI: Yes, the Eagles can cover without Jalen Hurts against a poor defense and backup QB.

ARI-LAR: I find it hard to believe that Sean McVay will really play starters even if he’s locked into the No. 6 seed. But the Cardinals are 50/50 to get completely blown out, so I’ll take his word on it and take the Rams to cover.

NYJ-BUF: We’ll see if Josh Allen dips after the first snap to keep his streak alive, but I think he should at least do the old Peyton Manning strategy in Indy where you play a drive or two before getting out of there. Plus, it’s the Jets, so he very well could watch James Cook pile up some rushing yards to win the rushing title, then set up a tush push TD to keep Allen’s streak of 40-TD seasons alive.

BAL-PIT: I wrote a detailed preview with a +1200 SGP in the picks piece above, but I honestly think the Metcalf suspension is going to doom them in the end. That decision to give the most WR-centric passer ever one good wideout all season, and then for him to be suspended while they face AFC North defenses in bad weather is just more bad luck for Rodgers, who I honestly think should come back in 2026 if the Steelers can find a way to get him another WR.

But I picked Ravens over Packers in the Super Bowl before this absurd season started, and I’m not backing down now on the Baltimore side of things. A run is still possible in this AFC but let’s see how healthy Lamar looks.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 17

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

That was a very long Week 17 slate in the NFL that started with Josh Johnson on Christmas afternoon and ended with a classic shootout between the Bears and 49ers. It sets up three division title games in Week 18 in prime time and little of substance on Sunday afternoon.

We had nine games with a comeback opportunity, so we still haven’t had a week with 10 chances since Week 4. That has me a little worried about Atlanta’s ability to keep it close with the Rams on Monday night, but we’ll see as I still think that one has upset potential.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bears at 49ers: Game of the Day

This 42-38 game summed up in one graphic:

The crazy part is the Bears didn’t have their best wideout in Rome Odunze, and D.J. Moore wasn’t 100%, and the two rookies (Luther Burden and Colston Loveland) dominated with 232 yards and 2 TDs). The 49ers didn’t have George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall wasn’t 100%, and they still lit it up too with Brock Purdy accounting for 5 total touchdowns (10 in prime time since Monday night) and 303 passing yards.

Not a bad shootout for a game that started with a pick-six. But I think it’s a game where the 49ers showed they could run the ball very well against a bad run defense as CMC had 140 rushing yards. Purdy played excellent, and it’s past time we act like he always needs George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel to do this, because none of those three were available to him on Sunday night. Left tackle Trent Williams also left on the opening drive.

But I also think you have to give Caleb Williams and the Bears credit for hanging in there blow for blow when the 49ers are on a heater like this. It came down to the final snap, and the Bears were that close to extending their record to a seventh win this season when trailing in the final 2:00.

If we somehow got this as a playoff rematch, I think that’d be great. But definitely a strong night for the offensive minds of Ben Johnson and Kyle Shanahan. Now, the 49ers just have to beat Seattle (easier said than done) on Saturday night and they’ll be the No. 1 seed again.

My only warning would be that you see what it might look like without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, though there is some hope Warner could return during the playoffs. But if Purdy is playing like this, maybe this can finally be San Francisco’s year.

Eagles at Bills: Familiar Trends

Throw in a lot of cold rain to make it even easier on these two strong pass defenses, and Sunday’s 13-12 final more or less played up to the season trends for the Eagles and Bills:

  • The Eagles started strong, taking a 13-0 lead into the locker room with Dallas Goedert adding another easy 1-yard touchdown to his season total.
  • Jalen Hurts then promptly went 0-for-7 passing in the second half with DeVonta Smith only coming close on a overturned catch one time.
  • Saquon Barkley was held to 68 yards on 19 carries, so his disappointing season continued more than the horrid Buffalo run defense did, but it helped that the Eagles weren’t completing passes.
  • Josh Allen took 5 sacks, including another contender for the worst sack of the year that knocked him out of field goal range as the Bills were shut out for 54 minutes.
  • James Cook was held to 77 total yards, and the Bills are now 0-4 this season when Cook is under 100 yards from scrimmage, averaging 14.8 points per game in those games.

But Philadelphia’s classic second-half no show on offense meant the defense had to hold up, and it almost broke. The Bills finally broke through with some big plays to Brandin Cooks and others (another hook-and-lateral) to get down the field twice, and despite the bad foot, Allen snuck in two touchdown runs in the final 5:11, including a 4th-and-goal from the 1 run with 0:08 left.

The Bills made the controversial decision to go for 2 and the win, and Allen completely whiffed on the throw to an open Shakir in the end zone. Game over; the Patriots win the AFC East. It’s no wonder they like to run the ball down there. That should have been an easy conversion, but the Bills have been missing these 2PC plays all season.

However, I have to defend the decision to go for the win instead of playing for overtime. I think it was absolutely the right call for Sunday’s circumstances:

  • The weather was horrible, which can make an extra point even harder, and it’s not like Buffalo’s kicker has been reliable on those, getting one blocked on the first touchdown. The Eagles have good blockers too.
  • Allen’s foot wasn’t 100% and that limits his effectiveness, so you don’t want to keep putting stress on that for more snaps in overtime.
  • The Bills realistically have to admit the Patriots are likely winning the AFC East with only a home game against Miami left, so it’s not like the division title or a No. 1 seed is really on the line here.

If this game was earlier in the season when you have less clarity about the playoff standings, I think you take them to overtime as your defense was playing outstanding and you’re at home. If the weather was better, I think you play on into overtime. If Allen was 100% healthy in a normal game, I think you go to overtime, which is a place he’s never actually won a game in the NFL yet.

But those were not the circumstances on Sunday in Week 17, so I don’t have an issue with the Bills doing what they did. I just have an issue with Allen badly missing the throw as they finally had a good play dialed up for one of those 2PCs.

The Eagles (11-5) still have an outside shot of the No. 2 seed over Chicago. The Bills (11-5) drop from No. 5 to No. 7, and with the Jets only left on the schedule, I think they’ll go to 12-5, the Texans beat the Colts to get to 12-5 and the No. 5 seed by virtue of head-to-head win, and the Chargers lose at Denver to fall to No. 7 seed at 11-6.

I had Buffalo lined up for No. 5 for a while, but seeing as how that now could be Derrick Henry and the Ravens in Baltimore, I’m not sure they want any part of that matchup in two weeks, so it’s possible that bad throw was strategic by Allen.

Then again, going to No. 6 and probably having to go to Jacksonville, a team playing as well as anyone, may not be a great start either for this team. But that’s where I see things trending for Buffalo.

Steelers at Browns: The Tomlin Special (The Last One?)

Once the Ravens beat the Packers on Saturday night, you could see the “Tomlin Special” coming from a mile away.

The Steelers were going to lose to a 3-12 Cleveland team to set up a winner-take-all game on SNF against the Ravens for the AFC North. And they’ll have to do it without D.K. Metcalf (suspended) and Darnell Washington (broke his arm on Sunday). Maybe without Calvin Austin too, or the three players who had 67% of Rodgers’ passing yards in Baltimore earlier this season.

I knew the Ravens being +800 value the other day to win the AFC North was too good to pass up. That’s not to say it’s a sure thing, because the Ravens have a pretty bad history of playing well in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers played Sunday with no real energy or care to want to wrap things up with a great opportunity against a bad team.

Instead, they gave up 10 early points to Shedeur Sanders before picking him off twice later. But even with nine possessions in a 4-to-7 point game the rest of the way, the Steelers never found the end zone even once. They pissed away drives with penalties, a pathetic 4th-and-1 deep pass to Scotty Miller, a Rodgers slide short of the sticks on third down, a bad sack to make a field goal too long, and forcing the ball repeatedly to washed-up wide receivers against a No. 1 pass defense with good corners playing man coverage.

And yes, the Steelers absolutely were too focused on Myles Garrett breaking the sack record. Garrett himself admitted it, and while you might expect him to say that given he was shutout by a makeshift offensive line, anyone who says this didn’t have a big negative impact on the game for Pittsburgh didn’t watch the game.

You could see it in the way they called plays at times, like not calling a single pass in a 13-9 game with 7:03 left and the ball at midfield. Three-and-out on runs. You could see it in the way Rodgers was letting go of the ball extra fast (usually well under 2.6 seconds), sometimes just throwing the ball away before he even dares left Garrett get a whiff of him.

That hampered the offense all day, and it’s a silly thing to worry about when Garrett gets to play Joe Burrow next week. The record is going to fall, but Rodgers sure looked like he’d be damned to be Brett Favre and get caught in a highlight reel forever for going down on the record-breaking sack.

Instead, he reverted to his factory settings by forcing outside throws to wide receivers instead of using the only players that are actually any good in this offense, the tight ends and running backs. Rodgers was 8-of-21 for 60 yards on passes to MVS, Scotty Miller, and Adam Thielen. Meanwhile, Pat Freiermuth had the big plays on the final drive, but he only finished with 63 yards on 3-of-5 passing.

Feed him more, except Rodgers just doesn’t like tight ends and will rather throw to washed-up wideouts he has no real chemistry with against maybe the worst defense to try that against this year.

Just buffoonery from start to finish as the Steelers finished with 6 points on 11 drives. Mike Tomlin is now 0-7 at Cleveland without Ben Roethlisberger, who was 12-2-1 at Cleveland.

I had a bad feeling the Metcalf suspension would lead to something like this, but I really didn’t think Rodgers would go with low-risk passes to MVS in the end zone (against Denzel Ward) on three straight passes with the game on the line. Metcalf would have been a target there. Freiermuth or Jonnu Smith should have been a target there. MVS stinks.

But Rodgers’ loyalty to “his guys” at wideout came back to bite them. A bad gameplan hurt them. Worrying too much about Garrett, who didn’t even generate that much pressure, hurt them.

Frankly, this team doesn’t deserve the postseason. They got their ninth win last week, and at this rate, I’ll be surprised if they get another this season.

Jaguars at Colts: Farewell Philip (Again?)

Hats off to the Jaguars for getting to 12-4 with a sweep of the Colts this month. This was a good back-and-forth game with Trevor Lawrence showing off his legs on two touchdown runs, and the pass defense held up against Philip Rivers for the most part (147 yards, 1 touchdown).

Rivers’ lone pick came in the fourth quarter of a tied game (had to play that tune one more time), and that actually led to Jacksonville’s game-winning field goal drive, which consisted of losing 3 yards after a stuffed Travis Etienne run and two incompletions by Lawrence. Yikes.

Rivers got the ball back in a 23-17 game with 18 seconds left, but instead of seeing him throw one last pick in a one-score game to perhaps end his career for good, a delay of game penalty on the defense moved the ball to the Jacksonville 48. Riley Leonard came off the bench with the stronger, younger arm to throw the Hail Mary, and that too was intercepted to end the game.

Rivers has no regrets about the comeback attempt even though the Colts were eliminated from the playoffs on Saturday with Houston’s win. He’ll go down as an all-time competitor and one of the only people crazy enough to try this after five years away from the game.

If this is the end of the road, he’ll now finish 36-84 (.300) at game-winning drive opportunities and 30-79 (.275) at comeback opportunities down one score.

Seahawks at Panthers: NFC South Shame Pt. 1

It’s not like I expected the Panthers to beat the Seahawks, but damn, have some pride at home. The Panthers were 5-1 ATS as a home underdog this year, but the best they could do in this one was make it 17-10 in the fourth quarter after a Bryce Young touchdown run.

It’s a good thing he had that run because he finished with 54 passing yards on 24 attempts, or 40 yards on 26 plays if you add his sacks.

But a huge facemask penalty got the Seahawks out of a 3rd-and-21 situation, and they punched in another score to go up 20-10. Young took consecutive sacks before throwing a 5-yard pass on 4th-and-17, leading to a 25-yard touchdown drive by the Seahawks to ice it at 27-10.

All three of Seattle’s touchdown drives started inside the Carolina 30 in the second half, taking advantage of Carolina’s mistakes on offense. This game was winnable despite the final score, but it really looks like no one wants to take the NFC South this year.

Their division title game should end in a tie, which would still give it to the Panthers.

Buccaneers at Dolphins: NFC South Shame Pt. 2

This Tampa Bay collapse needs studied. The Dolphins came in ranked No. 26 against the run and the Bucs just couldn’t get anything going on the ground. It doesn’t help when Tristan Wirfs was inactive at tackle. But Baker Mayfield probably has the best 4-WR group in the NFL, and yet they were stuck on 10 points with him throwing two picks deep into this one before a last-minute Mike Evans touchdown led to a failed onside kick in a 20-17 loss.

Quinn Ewers had a couple of touchdown passes to lesser-known Miami targets for the rookie’s first win. The running game was solid. Miami will likely finish 7-10, which sounds like the typical Miami season in the 21st century.

Giants at Raiders: The Toilet Bowl

Both teams had lost nine in a row, but the Raiders would have been dumb to win this game and hand the Giants the No. 1 pick in the draft. The Raiders definitely need it more as they have a quarterback need the Giants don’t with Jaxson Dart rushing for two more scores in this 34-10 rout as Geno Smith took another beating behind his line.

The No. 1 pick isn’t locked up for the Raiders yet, and the Chiefs would probably be wise to not let them secure it next week either. Then again, it’s not like there looks to be a real QB prize in the 2026 draft.

Cardinals at Bengals: Ho-Hum

Go figure, it took Jacoby Brissett deep into garbage time (trailed by 30 points at the two-minute warning) to finally break 200 yards passing and throw his second touchdown of the day against the Bengals in a 37-14 loss that was never really competitive.

Just glad to say I was right that Ja’Marr Chase and Trey McBride finding the end zone were the only picks you needed from this otherwise fruitless endeavor between losing teams.

Patriots at Jets: Seriously, Just End the Season

The Patriots scored six straight touchdowns to start their 42-10 rout of the Jets, another tip in the cap for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who has been behind some of those all-time drubbings in NFL history.

Speaking of history, the 2025 Jets have done it. In 16 games, they’ve let quarterbacks throw 32 touchdowns and 0 interceptions after a 5-piece from Drake Maye on Sunday. That’s two weeks after Trevor Lawrence had six total touchdowns on this defense.

I know Aaron Glenn is going to get excuses that they traded two of his best defenders, but this shit was rotten from Week 1 and has only gotten worse. I wouldn’t criticize the Jets if they made him a one-and-done coach, but I doubt that will happen no matter how brutal this 3-win season has gone.

Saints at Titans: Ending 2025 on a High Note

I know people don’t care about these teams this season, but I think it was a very good showing for both Tyler Shough and Cam Ward, and a game that should have their fans excited about what can happen in 2026 with more seasoning from Shough and better coaching/talent around Ward.

But Shough got the best of this matchup as he added another 300-yard passing game and comeback win to his resume. In such a down year for rookies, I’m very serious about voting him for OROY. Just finish strong next week.

Texans at Chargers: Houston Outlasts Them

Going back to Saturday quickly, I was most excited about this game and I think it delivered a playoff atmosphere with a tough, physical grind after some early explosives from Houston’s offense made it 14-0 in the blink of an eye.

But I thought Justin Herbert’s teammates let him down again with the tipped pick in the red zone, and Dicker the Kicker turned into Nate Kaeding in a big game. This guy is supposed to be perfect from inside 40 yards, yet he missed one from 40 and an extra point, costing the Chargers 4 points in a game they lost by, yep, 4 points. And don’t act like I haven’t forgotten about the missed field goal in the Jacksonville playoff loss. I see what this kicker is up to. Can’t trust him.

But the Texans held on for the second week in a row by getting a huge defensive penalty to help them run out the clock. I’m not sure Chargers fans can complain much about that illegal contact that wiped out a third-down sack of Stroud. The Chargers also had two defensive penalties wipe out huge sacks on Herbert on their previous drive to score a touchdown.

This game is a pretty good sign that the Texans are more dangerous than the Chargers in the playoffs because of their defense and their offensive line doesn’t have turnstiles at offensive tackle. But I also think it helped  expose that the Houston offense is still likely to come up short before a Super Bowl appearance to keep this team out of the big game.

Crazy stat: Houston has never been a wild card team. All eight playoff appearances for the Texans have come as the AFC South winner, so we’ll see how that shakes out if Jacksonville wraps this division up on Sunday.

Ravens at Packers: King Henry Reigns Supreme

For a game with two backup quarterbacks, there were a lot of points and quality drive engineering between the Packers and Ravens on Saturday night. While the Ravens leaned on Derrick Henry, who dominated with 216 yards and 4 touchdowns, it was the Packers who surprisingly couldn’t run at all and leaned on Malik Willis to throw for 288 yards and rush for 60 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sadly, a late injury knocked him out and Clayton Tune was intercepted on a tipped ball.

But I think it’s clear that Matt LaFleur is going to help Willis get paid a ton of money from a team to be their starter in 2026 or 2027, a miraculous coaching job with a player who couldn’t throw for 100 yards in any of his starts as a rookie on the 2022 Titans. Maybe even his brother Mike LaFleur, the Rams offensive coordinator, will be hired by a team to make Willis work out as well as his brother has.

Good luck with that, but it was an impressive game from him on Saturday night. They didn’t lose this game because Jordan Love (concussion) was out. They lost because their defense, missing Micah Parsons, was pathetic, a familiar tune in Green Bay in big games.

The Packers are now 0-3 this year when they don’t punt in a game, which has never been done before in a season. The rest of the NFL is 10-0 this year. Green Bay is just the 10th team since 1950 to lose a game by at least 17 points without punting.

Next week: I get to look back at how bad my predictions were for this crazy season. We get the sacrificial lamb game first on Saturday to determine the No. 4 seed in the NFC. We get the No. 1 seed game at night, then it’s a pretty bland Sunday afternoon slate leading up to Ravens vs. Steelers for the AFC North.