The NFL kicked off Week 6 with a bit of history as you had three straight prime-time games in the regular season go to overtime since Sunday night. But this Thursday was a bit of a dud when Bo Nix tied the record for most game-winning drives through three seasons (15) in the most Bo Nix way possible by throwing for 107 yards on 27 attempts in a 17-14 overtime win.
The GWD was set up by another Sam Darnold interception, and Nix had two runs for 3 yards on an 8-yard drive that did not gain a first down.
I don’t know how Nix keeps doing this Elway-meets-Tebow thing as that’s now 12 game-winning drives in his last 20 starts. But with that win, that’s now 10 straight prime-time games in the NFL where the underdog won outright. The last favorite to win was the Rams on MNF against the Giants in Week 2.
I had to look up how insane that is, so I went back to 2006 when the NFL brought back Thursday Night Football. The 10-game streak of underdogs winning outright dwarfs everything as the next closest streak was 6 games, and that was during the 2020 COVID season where you had empty stadiums and record-setting offensive numbers.
Notice that three of the four streaks came in Sept/Oct. where the spreads may not be as accurate with everyone trying to get a read on these teams early in the season. Still, it’s been a wild streak as the previous worst record for favorites in any 10-game stretch since 2006 in prime time was 2-8.
We’ll see if it can continue another week.
NFL Week 6 Predictions
I expected Denver to win basically the way they did against Seattle (by capitalizing on Sam Darnold mistakes to win by 3 points and without an impressive offensive display.)
HOU-JAX: Looking forward to this one actually as I think it’s Houston’s last shot to compete for the AFC South this year. I’m actually going to go with them as I think the Jaguars could struggle with their backup LT against those Houston edge rushers (Anderson Jr. is playing great), and Houston’s offense is starting to figure things out. Jaguars have been more consistent this year but division games are always tough.
CHI-ATL: Sounds like we’re getting Caleb Williams vs. Michael Penix as the QBs. Penix is still technically 0-7 at GWDs even though he’s put the team in position multiple times to win. But I think Chicago bounces back in a big way with Caleb and wins this one late.
BAL-CLE: Another week without Lamar, but I think Tyler Huntley can hold it down and I don’t see the Browns scoring a ton here. That 3-1 start was pretty much a mirage.
NYJ-NE: The Patriots have had a few good games in a row now and usually take care of the Jets with few problems. I don’t expect much out of this game.
NO-NYG: Saints have given the Giants a ton of problems over the years, but I think Jameis gets it done at home as I just don’t trust the Saints right now.
TEN-IND: Division games can always be tougher than expected, but the Titans just lost 26-3 to winless Houston last week. This team just looks lost to me. I can’t trust them to cover and the Colts have been consistently beating them under Steichen.
CAR-PHI: In a normal week I wouldn’t feel bad at all with Tanner McKee starting for Jalen Hurts (blood clot). But these are not normal times for the Eagles. There’s no Saquon, A.J. Brown, or Lane Johnson for McKee this week. Panthers had the bye week too and the Eagles are coming off that shocking London loss. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Panthers win by 3 points for the Eagles to steal a cover, but I’m just going to go with the healthier, better rested team in Carolina that should be able to put up some points. They should have won in Philly in 2024 if Mr. Raccoon Eater (Xavier Legette) didn’t drop that TD.
PIT-TB: By my count, Aaron Rodgers is just 6-6 in the state of Florida with some of the ugliest losses of his career. Florida is where you go to die after retirement, but Rodgers is on a good streak of games with 3 TD passes. However, he’s down some WRs here, and the Bucs didn’t look so bad with Jalon Daniels in Dallas. He’ll start again for an injured Baker. The Steelers should win a road game eventually this season, but I’m just going to side with the Bucs winning this one at home as I think the Steelers lack the WRs to score many points, and I can see a mobile Daniels giving them problems on scrambles and broken plays. Bowles should blitz Rodgers too and test that OL.
ARI-LAR: Cards aren’t an explosive offense right now, and I think McVay is genuinely pissed at losing that Buffalo game. I think he’ll run it up here and the Rams win big to get back to .500. Don’t put it on a new kicker. Just kick a bad team’s ass.
BUF-LV: The Raiders were destroyed by the Patriots last week. They should play much better at home against a bad Buffalo defense, but I think Kirk Cousins’ lack of mobility will continue to give him some issues, and Greg Rousseau is having a special start for the pass rush. I think the Bills win by at least a TD.
LAC-KC: I liked the underdog line a lot more at +9.5, but this has to be your classic Chargers cover, Chiefs win type of game most likely. It doesn’t sound like Mahomes will have Josh Simmons or Rashee Rice, so another game without LT1 and WR1 (and his true best WR in Tyquan Thornton) for him. But they have Kenneth Walker, Kelce should step up, and Justin Herbert is on an 0-for-7 streak at GWDs.
Still, it’d be such a classic NFL thing for the 0-5 team to beat the 4-0 team in a division game. I do think it’s a game where the Chiefs will struggle. Maybe seeing that defense will wake up Herbert the way Buffalo brought Drake Maye back to life two weeks ago. But the Chiefs can’t afford to blow this one in a tough AFC race with harder games to come. I think they win but won’t cover.
DAL-GB: Here we go in prime time again with teams that played to a 40-40 tie on SNF last year. Historically, the Packers seem to always beat Dallas in the Rodgers/Love eras, and GB is playing better after a poor start. Dallas had an embarrassing home loss to Tampa, and that game is really the main reason why the shocking 10-game winning streak for underdogs in prime time is intact.
It would be fitting for Jerry Jones’ squad to end a streak they helped extend to record length by losing again here as the underdog. I think that’s what will happen too even though I expect a GWD opportunity in this one.
WAS-SF: Maybe we go on a counter run with favorites dominating in prime time starting this weekend. The 49ers won’t go undefeated or anything like that, but I don’t trust a Dan Quinn-coached team to be the one that knocks them off. His defense won’t stop this offense, and Daniels is not playing the best right now. I begrudgingly take the home favorite to cover to end the week.
