NFL Stat Oddity: Week 9

It says a lot about this NFL season when Sunday’s best drama came from the games where Joshua Dobbs, Taylor Heinicke, Baker Mayfield, and C.J. Stroud were dueling in the fourth quarter and not from any of the “big games” Week 9 featured.

The main events were far from classics, and only Cowboys-Eagles, a division game, had a dramatic finish as both teams tried to hand the game over to their bitter rival before the Eagles won 28-23. It was also the only big game where the loser broke 20 points as Miami flopped 21-14 in Germany to the Chiefs, the Seahawks were blown out 37-3 in Baltimore, and the Bills were always playing from behind in Cincinnati in a 24-18 final that didn’t feel that close. 

It was a long day, and I mean that literally with the clock change dragging things out an extra hour to the point where I fell asleep during the middle of the late afternoon slate. Not that I needed to see the no-show performances from the Panthers and Giants.

There were 8 games with a comeback opportunity this week, and I expect that number to rise on Monday night with some classic Chargering to end Week 9. But a classic week it was not.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Dolphins vs. Chiefs: Tyreek Hill Delivers Belated Touchdown Gift to Kansas City

Not much can get me out of bed at 9:30 AM, but I wanted to watch this one as it had the potential to be an instant classic and have a huge impact on shaping the narrative for the second half of this 2023 NFL season. Everything from the award races to the Super Bowl odds and No. 1 seed in the AFC was up for grabs here.

Beyond that, it’s just a good game on paper where you had to question if the No. 1 Miami offense can actually score on a top defense and beat a good team. You questioned if the Kansas City offense could still win a shootout with the limitations at wide receiver and how bad they looked in last week’s 24-9 loss in Denver.

In the end, all we really learned is that Miami is a paper tiger, Tyreek Hill killed his chances of having an MVP case this season, and the Chiefs have even more question marks on offense than previously thought.

For a big game, this was a huge disappointment to watch. The game started great for about 4 minutes with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs looking sharp on an opening touchdown drive, then Jaylen Waddle got the Dolphins going with a 15-yard catch. This was going to be great.

But then on the second play from scrimmage for Miami, Waddle was clipped on a running play and left the game with a knee injury. He would later return, but he never felt like a big part of the game plan after that.

For the next several drives, these offenses could not solve these defenses, and they were repeatedly stuck in 3rd-and-long situations. The Chiefs were also getting stuck in bad field position as Mecole Hardman has no conscience in fielding punts inside his own 10.

But the Chiefs eventually broke the scoring slump with a great 95-yard touchdown drive that consumed 8:28. Down 14-0, the Dolphins had a chance to get a double score as they were getting the ball first in the third quarter. But Miami started playing the clock too much in not wanting to give Mahomes the ball back, and they even tried to throw a screen to Hill with under 50 seconds left in the half. More than 35 yards away from the end zone and wanting to make a huge impact against his former team, Hill tried to do too much, and the Chiefs swarmed him, knocking out the ball for a huge fumble that was picked up, then wisely lateraled to another Chief for a 59-yard return touchdown to give the Chiefs a shocking 21-0 lead.

And you didn’t think you’d ever see Tyreek Hill score another touchdown for the Chiefs.

At halftime, the Kansas City defense looked fantastic, and while it was not a dominant half for the offense, Mahomes was on pace for almost 300 yards and 4 touchdowns despite barely getting Travis Kelce involved. Everything was coming up Chiefs as Miami looked like it was a fraud that could only beat the worst teams in the league.

But in the third quarter, Tua Tagovailoa finally hit a big pass for 31 yards to Cedrick Wilson Jr. for Miami’s first touchdown of the game. Bradley Chubb forced Mahomes into a bad strip-sack to give Miami a short field, then Chris Jones was called for a ridiculous penalty that cost the Chiefs 4 more points as it was going to bring up a 4th-and-10. Instead, Raheem Mostert ran for a 13-yard touchdown, and we had a 21-14 game going into the final quarter.

From there, some of the baffling play calls for the Chiefs came to the forefront. I’m not sure how Andy Reid can justify a run on 2nd-and-10 with La’Mical Perine (not even Samaje) for 1 yard when Miami clearly had the momentum. Mahomes threw a deep ball on 3rd-and-9 to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and the fact that he couldn’t draw a DPI flag or make the catch there sums up why this wideout situation is a big problem.

But with the Dolphins taking their sweet time to drive to the Kansas City 38, the defense stood tall for the Chiefs again. They forced back-to-back negative plays, including an 11-yard sack of Tua to bring up a 3rd-and-26 that was incomplete. Hardman again acted the fool and fielded the punt at his own 3, but the Chiefs were only going to need a couple of first downs to run out the final 4:10 on the clock, shockingly ending this one at 21-14.

But with a 3rd-and-1, the Chiefs tried a play-action pass with Mahomes having to eat the ball under pressure and throw an incompletion. This team doesn’t believe in the quarterback sneak anymore because Mahomes had a freak injury (dislocated kneecap) on it in Denver in 2019, so they purposely deprive themselves of one of the most successful plays in NFL history. They don’t even coach up a backup to do it well as we’ve seen this team try to do the Brotherly Shove with Noah Gray under center from a field goal formation. It’s ridiculous.

They didn’t need a quarterback sneak though. They could have just run Isiah Pacheco on 3rd-and-1 as that guy takes every carry like its his last day on Earth. But nope, the Chiefs screwed it up, and at this point, I thought they deserved to lose the game with this chickenshit play calling in the 2nd half.

Miami was 75 yards and a 2-point conversion away from potentially taking a 22-21 lead. Mostert was bottled up most of the game, but his runs of 25 and 19 yards quickly moved this to the Kansas City 31. That’s where Tua all but sank his MVP chances this year with 3 straight incompletions, including a woeful throw on 3rd down that had to be a miscommunication with the receiver (Wilson).

On 4th-and-ballgame, this game got the stinker ending it was building up to all morning. A bad snap got away from Tua and he just ate the ball to end the game. He didn’t even get a chance to throw a pass or for the Kansas City defense to do anything to stop him. Just another error at the worst moment.

Neither quarterback passed for 200 yards, which is absurd when Mahomes had 147 yards at halftime, and Tagovailoa had -1450 odds at FanDuel to throw for 200 in this game. Noah Gray led the Chiefs with 34 receiving yards, which was 20 more yards than Kelce. Hill finished with 8 catches for only 62 yards, but it’s the fumble that he’ll be remembered for in this game. The offenses were a combined 6-for-22 on third down.

The good news is the Kansas City defense is for real (for now). The bad news is the offense is in a funk and not doing much to help itself out of it.

  • In Mahomes’ first 101 starts, the only game where the Chiefs and their opponent both had under 300 yards of offense was the 2019 Denver game where he dislocated his kneecap and left early in the 2nd quarter, so that doesn’t really count.
  • But in the last 2 weeks in Denver and here in Germany, the Chiefs and their opponent have not topped 300 yards of offense. From 0 games in 101 starts to 2 in a row. Crazy stuff.
  • The Chiefs had 174 net passing yards and the Dolphins had 175 net passing yards. It is the first Kansas City game where the Chiefs and their opponent did not exceed 175 net passing yards since the 30-0 win over the Texans in the 2015 AFC wild card round.

This is not normal for Kansas City. Having said that, I’d still rather be in their shoes than Miami’s. Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, but three times is a pattern. The Dolphins looked outclassed against the Bills, Eagles, and now Chiefs. No one really cares what you do against the Panthers and Giants. Miami was underwhelming again in this game, and I’m not sure what the solution is going forward. Hope De’Von Achane can break 50-yard runs at the highest rate in history after he returns from injury?

I’d say more about the Chiefs, but I’ve been up over 20 hours cause of this game, I’m still mad about how weak it was offensively, and I’m going to bed. We’ll figure it out over the bye week, but the offense has to step up soon.

Cowboys at Eagles: Dallas, Always a Bridesmaid

While the final quarter was a litany of mistakes by both teams, this division battle was the best main event of Week 9. If we’re calling it down the line, this was the best high-scoring game between contenders since the Lions and Seahawks went to overtime (37-31) way back in Week 2. Yeah, things have been rough this year.

But Dak Prescott played well, throwing another 3 touchdowns to have 14 scores in 4 games against Nick Sirianni’s team since 2021. This was only the second time that Dak and Jalen Hurts have met, but it was worth the wait with Hurts passing for another 200 yards, 2 scores, and running in another touchdown on his trademark play.

But you can kind of see the advantage of division games in that Dallas was not outmatched that significantly in this game even as a 3-point road favorite in a hostile environment. The Cowboys came back to take a 17-14 halftime lead into the locker room before the Eagles scored two touchdowns in the third quarter to lead 28-17.

But the fourth quarter really was a mess for both teams:

Dallas went for it on 4th-and-1 at the Philadelphia 1 with 10:10 left. The young tight end did not run his target deep enough and came up just inches short of the end zone, turning the ball over on downs. I think there was an argument to kick a field goal in a 28-17 game, but there’s also a good argument to go for it with the field position advantage, but that sequence was a big, missed opportunity for Dallas.

The Eagles went 3-and-out, and sure enough, Dallas only had to go 52 yards for a quick touchdown. But on the 2-point conversion, Dak just stepped out of bounds short of the end zone, so that was another case of inches costing the Cowboys more points as there is a huge difference between 28-25 and 28-23.

After another Philadelphia 3-and-out, a Dallas drive short-circuited after back-to-back sacks, and Prescott threw incomplete to a draped receiver on 4th-and-8 who wasn’t CeeDee Lamb, which I couldn’t agree with. But instead of the Eagles running out the final 1:17, they nearly fumbled the game away on a 3rd-down run when D’Andre Swift collied with A.J. Brown in motion, and the Eagles were lucky to recover that fumble.

The Cowboys had 46 seconds to drive 86 yards without a timeout. Immediately, they got a 36-yard defensive pass interference penalty after a horrible play by corner James Bradberry, who almost seemed to fake an injury in embarrassment for his coverage lapse. A roughing the passer penalty was called on the next play, and while it was weak contact, it was definitely late after the play. Just like that, the Cowboys covered 61 yards in 14 seconds, and this was looking realistic, especially after the other corner, Darius Slay, pulled up with an injury.

Lamb caught a pass for 11 yards and got out of bounds, then the Eagles were flagged for 5 more yards for encroachment. The Cowboys were 6 yards away from pulling this off, but that’s when it all went to hell, and shades of past playoff failures against the 49ers. First, Prescott definitely looked like he audibled to a quarterback draw, which would have been another ill-fated decision as he is not as fast as he thinks he is, and the Cowboys were out of timeouts. But a false start shut that down.

Then Prescott took a huge 11-yard sack, the Eagles’ 5th of the day, and he rushed a throw into the end zone instead of spiking a pass and maybe having 2 more shots at the end zone. Move it back 5 yards for a false start, and the Eagles were down to 1 play and 27 yards away. They probably could have tried a short throw and run out of bounds to get 6-to-8 yards closer since the Eagles gave up that whole short area of the field. But they went for the deep throw and it wasn’t deep enough as Lamb caught it at the 4-yard line and fumbled as the defense was right there and never going to allow him to score.

We’ve seen worse Dallas performances before, but it was still disappointing in how well things were going to start that last drive. The Cowboys also held the Eagles without a 30-yard play, they ended Brown’s record streak of 125-yard games by holding him to 66 receiving yards, and they held the Eagles to 3.3 yards per carry.

But it still was not enough to get a win in Philadelphia, which has a big lead in the NFC East now. It was expected the Eagles would win this first matchup at home, but the Cowboys need to build on the positives and hope the Eagles slip up with their tough upcoming schedule.

Bills at Bengals: Buffalo Has a Cincinnati Problem

If you had to pick a team in the AFC that you could trust to go into Kansas City or Baltimore in January and win big games, you should pick Buffalo above most. Some will say Cincinnati, but Buffalo has a track record on par with them, if not better when it comes to beating Lamar Jackson and going drive for drive with Mahomes.

However, we have seen about 8.5 quarters of Bills vs. Bengals going back to last January, and it looks like the Bills have a big problem with this Cincinnati team. The pass rush can’t seem to get to Joe Burrow with his quick release, his receivers are too good for this secondary to hold up, and the Bills put everything on Josh Allen, who tends to make mistakes, especially against a master game planner like Cincinnati defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo.

The Bengals (5-3) have won 4 in a row and the whole AFC North would be in the playoffs if they started today. This loss drops Buffalo (5-4) to No. 9 in the AFC, and they have some issues with the inconsistent offense and defensive injuries.

I’m sensing a bad pattern for Buffalo in these big AFC matchups where Allen is expected to carry the load where the Chiefs and Bengals do more to help their quarterbacks with a running game and other receivers. After Stefon Diggs and a rookie tight end (Dalton Kincaid), Allen is struggling to get Gabriel Davis producing as a No. 2 receiver this year, and they rarely ever run the ball with the running backs in games like this.

This puts a lot of pressure on Allen as this Buffalo defense tends to fold against the better passing offenses in this league. They can make the Jets look bad twice a year, but they usually don’t make an impact on the contenders.

Each team only had 9 possessions in this game, and Buffalo wasted 2 of them with turnovers, and they botched the end of the first half when an intentional grounding penalty knocked the Bills out of long field goal range. You could have argued there was a missed tripping penalty on the Bengals before that grounding call, but it was a weak night for the officials too.

But the biggest mistake was by that rookie tight end as Kincaid fumbled in the red zone in the fourth quarter when it was a 21-10 game. The Bengals turned that into a 5:10 field goal drive to go up 24-10, the Bills scored a touchdown with a 2-point conversion, but they wasted a timeout with one of the worst challenges you’ll ever see. Don’t challenge something so inconclusive that won’t even give you a first down when time is your main enemy in a 2-score game. Don’t challenge something that only brings up 2nd-and-10 with the clock stopped. Make up for it, as the Bills did in 2 snaps, but by the time the Bengals got the ball, they only had 3:32 to burn through with Buffalo down to 1 timeout.

A surprise pass down the field led to a 32-yard gain right way, then the Bengals kept it on the ground with Joe Mixon and he beat Von Miller to the marker on a 3rd-down run to end the game. The Bills trailed by double digits on each of their last 5 drives, which isn’t that different from the playoff loss last year where they trailed by double digits on 7 of their final 8 drives.

Buffalo seems to bring out the best in this Cincinnati team as Burrow again had a great game with 348 yards as Tee Higgins (110 yards) took over on a quiet night for Ja’Marr Chase (4 catches for 41 yards). The Bengals didn’t run it well this time (17 carries for 50 yards) but they at least put the game away on the ground.

It may not sound like much at 24-18, but the Bengals led wire to wire and controlled the game from the start. This is what they do in big games in Cincinnati. They score 19-to-27 points and they allow 16-to-27 points almost every time, and they get the big turnovers in clutch moments like they did again with the Kincaid forced fumble.

No playoff team has dropped more than 27 points on the Bengals since the 2021 Chiefs in the first meeting of that rivalry, a 34-31 Cincinnati comeback win. That’s 13 straight games holding playoff teams to 27 points. If the best teams the Bengals have played this year make the playoffs again, that could be an 18-game streak when you include the 2023 Browns, Ravens, Seahawks, 49ers, and Bills.

The Bengals play the Chiefs very well, but they look to be even better against Buffalo, and this loss could be a big one now that Bills fall back to second in the AFC East and lose the head-to-head tie-breaker with the Bengals for a wild card spot.

Seahawks at Ravens: Who Is Writing These Baltimore Game Scripts?

Apparently, Lamar Jackson is 18-3 SU against NFC teams, but the spread record (12-8-1 ATS) was nowhere near that strong. Ask anyone who got burned last week by the Ravens (-9.5) in Arizona when they struggled to move the ball and couldn’t hold a big lead late to easily cover the spread.

That Arizona game is going to look even fishier now that it came between two home games where the Ravens absolutely blasted the Lions (38-6) and Seahawks (37-3), who are supposed to be considerably better than 1-win Arizona.

The Ravens either play these absurdly lopsided games, or they puke all over themselves in losses to the Colts and Steelers. It’s frustrating, but when this team is clicking like it was on Sunday, they look like the team I picked to win the Super Bowl before the season started.

This game was a punt fest in the first quarter, but after rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba bobbled a third-down pass on the opening drive, that was arguably the beginning of the end for Seattle. Gus Edwards scored 2 more touchdowns after a trio last week, Geno Smith turned it over twice in the 2nd quarter, and the Ravens led 17-3 at halftime. Baltimore kept it going with field goals, then blew the game open with Keaton Mitchell breaking a 40-yard touchdown run. I never even heard of him before Sunday. Mitchell finished with 138 yards on 9 carries, further proving how silly it is to spend big resources to find running backs in this game.

Mitchell’s big run was more points than the Seahawks mustered all day as Smith was held to 157 yards passing, and Kenneth Walker had 9 carries for 16 yards in a 37-3 blowout loss.

Even Tyler Huntley came into the game in the fourth quarter and led his team to more points than Geno did, throwing a touchdown pass to Odell Beckham Jr. to keep him happy.

The Ravens, my preseason Super Bowl pick, are a hard team to watch when most of their games are blowouts or sloppy performances. But if they can win at home like this the next two weeks against the Browns and Bengals, they will be in full control of the tough AFC North, and maybe the best team in the whole AFC if the offense can keep this balance.

Look for Jackson to overtake Tagovailoa in the MVP race and be right there with Mahomes and Hurts.

Buccaneers at Texans: The Unexpected Shootout of the Year

On a list of unexpected shootouts in NFL history, this one would have to rank somewhere between Baker Mayfield vs. Derek Carr (2018 Browns vs. Raiders) and Matthew Stafford vs. Brady Quinn (2009 Lions vs. Browns).

Mayfield has been on the losing end of several of these before. Mayfield is the only quarterback in NFL history to lose multiple games when his team scored at least 42 points, and that happened to him 3 times in Cleveland.

Mayfield did his job in this one with Tampa Bay holding multiple 10-point leads, and Mayfield led multiple touchdown drives in the fourth quarter alone, including a great one with 46 seconds left that included a key 4th-down scramble, and he found Cade Otton for a 14-yard touchdown.

But this win was earned by C.J. Stroud, who may have just had the best rookie quarterback performance ever, and who definitely put the team on his back and should run away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

With an irrelevant running game, a Swiss cheese defense, and an injured kicker, Stroud led the Texans back with 470 passing yards, 5 touchdown passes, and no turnovers. The 470 yards are a rookie record, replacing the 433 yards that Andrew Luck had in 2012 against Miami. The only other true rookie to pass for over 400 yards with 5 touchdowns was Stafford against the aforementioned 2009 Browns, but Stroud is the only one to do it without throwing any interceptions.

Let’s leave rookies out of it. Stroud joins Dan Fouts as the only quarterbacks to ever throw for 400 yards, 5 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and lead a 4QC/GWD. Fouts did it against Joe Montana’s 49ers in a classic duel.

Houston’s injured kicker in the second half led to more adversity as the Texans ended up trying four 2-point conversions. They also let running back Dare Ogunbowale kick a 29-yard field goal to take a 33-30 lead with 8:45 left, and the back nailed it.

But that wasn’t going to hold up as the game winner after Mayfield’s last drive put Houston behind 37-33 with 46 seconds left. The Texans had 2 timeouts left, but what ensued is one of the best game-winning touchdown drives you’ll ever see.

Stroud used both timeouts after 2 completions for 20 yards, then spiked the ball after a 14-yard completion. But the real dagger throw was a 26-yard pass to Tank Dell near the sideline where he got out of bounds with 10 seconds left. The next throw needed to go into the end zone, and Stroud delivered right back to Dell for the 15-yard touchdown strike with 6 seconds left.

The Buccaneers only had time left to fumble the lateral-filled play. Stroud finished with 8 completions of 20-plus yards in a monster performance for a quarterback of any experience level, let alone a rookie.

I’ve been lukewarm on Stroud’s rookie season from a historic perspective, but a game like this moves him up significantly.

Vikings at Falcons: The Joshua Dobbs Game

The other unexpectedly amazing finish on Sunday came in Atlanta. We knew the Falcons allowed Will Levis to have a record-tying debut last week in Tennessee, and we know the Falcons are capable of blowing any game in any situation.

But this was something special. Jaren Hall was starting for Minnesota after Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles, and this rookie also looked sharp early in the game with 78 yards passing in the first quarter. He just missed on a touchdown throw to T.J. Hockenson, but Hall was concussed on a scramble, putting Joshua Dobbs into the game.

Dobbs was just acquired via trade from Arizona this week, and he reportedly had no practice snaps and was only beginning to learn the offense as he was not expected to play in this game. But he had to play, it started really rough with a safety and strip-sack, but once he calmed down and remember it’s just football, he looked like the quarterback we have seen in Arizona this year with the ability to scramble and make things happen.

Dobbs led all runners in the game with 66 yards and a touchdown. He also passed for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns, which is pretty solid production for someone who just joined the team. He also was 1-9 as a starter in his career and 0-5 in game-winning drive opportunities.

But this game went back and forth, and it looked like Atlanta had the upper hand after Taylor Heinicke, starting for the benched Desmond Ridder, led a 79-yard touchdown drive to put the Falcons up 28-24 with 2:08 left.

You don’t expect much from Dobbs here, but again, these are the Falcons. This is what they do. Like how the 2022 Raiders made Baker Mayfield a legend for a night with a 98-yard drive to win the game for the Rams just 48 hours after he joined the team, Dobbs pulled off his own miracle for his first game-winning drive in the NFL.

It came down to a 4th-and-7, and this scramble by Dobbs is one of the best plays you’ll see all season:

Three plays later, Dobbs threw a 6-yard touchdown to Brandon Powell to win the game. The Falcons had 22 seconds and 2 timeouts left, but they couldn’t get into range for Younghoe Koo for a field goal in the 31-28 loss. It was the first blown 4th-quarter lead of the season for the Falcons, but what a way to do it, and against a team you are directly competing with for a wild card spot.

At least Dobbs, who has the highest QBR in Week 9 (86.6), can say he has his moment in the NFL, and he could even end up starting a playoff game as the Vikings are currently the No. 7 seed.

Bears at Saints: Bagent Is Definitely Chicago Material

The Bears actually played a solid game in New Orleans with tight end Cole Kmet showing up big early with 2 touchdown catches, including an incredible grab on a risky pass from rookie Tyson Bagent.

The game was tied at 17 going into the fourth quarter, and that’s when the Saints broke the tie with a touchdown drive that mixed some Derek Carr passes with contributions from Taysom Hill, who technically threw the game-winning 3-yard touchdown pass to tight end Juwan Johnson. With Carr and Hill splitting time on the drive, I ended up giving both credit for the game-winning drive, which is technically the first of Hill’s unique career.

At this point of the game, Bagent had over 200 passing yards, 2 touchdown passes, and 70 rushing yards – numbers that Justin Fields put up in a game just once in his career. But Bagent showed he is perfect for Chicago after he immediately answered the Saints’ drive with a bad interception. The Saints botched the moment by hurrying Carr on a quarterback sneak, which is never a good idea, and he was short and turned it over on downs.

The rest of this game was a mess. Bagent threw another pick in a 24-17 game, the teams traded 3-and-outs, then the Saints missed a 47-yard field goal with 2:26 left as this new kicker (Blake Grupe) has choker written all over him.

Fortunately, the defense forced Bagent into a strip-sack for his 4th turnover to finally wrap this one up to move to 5-4. The Bears are now 1-13 at comeback opportunities under coach Matt Eberflus. It’s uncanny how many of those game-losing drives have ended with the quarterback turning the ball over, but this is why Chicago has the reputation it does.

Rams at Packers: McVay Doesn’t Care for Lambeau

The Rams haven’t won in Green Bay since 2006. Throw in a Matthew Stafford thumb injury that led to Brett Rypien starting, and this felt like a good day for the Packers to end their losing slide. Hell, they even scored a touchdown in the first half, but it would be the only points they had early.

Despite the 20-3 final, this was a 10-3 game going into the fourth quarter when the Rams were stopped on a 4th-and-2 run at midfield. The Rams got the ball right back too, but Rypien was intercepted, and that led to a field goal and 13-3 lead for the Packers. The Rams went 3-and-out, and the Packers put it away with a 72-yard touchdown drive with Jordan Love finding rookie tight end Luke Musgrave for a 20-yard touchdown.

It’s not the kind of win that’s going to change minds in Green Bay, but at least Love was 20-for-26 with no picks. At least we know Matt LaFleur can still beat the Bears and the Rams (at home).

Commanders at Patriots: Dead Last in the AFC

At least some things never change in New England. Somehow, this was called roughing the passer on Washington:

That led to a field goal to give the Patriots a 17-10 lead, which was already built on a short-field touchdown drive after recovering a fumble, and the Patriots intercepted Sam Howell in the end zone to end the first half.

But that’s where the typical New England things ended. The Patriots trailed 20-17 for the entire fourth quarter. It looked like Mac Jones had a completion out past the 40, but Washington challenged rookie Demario Douglas’ 22-yard catch, and it was reversed to an incompletion to kill the drive.

This is where the offense is these days. Relying on 6th-round rookies, the ghosts of Ezekiel Elliott, DeVante Parker, and JuJu Smith-Schuster, and they were even firing bombs to Jalen Reagor on third down on Sunday. The only thing surprising about Jalen Reagor in a Patriots uniform is that Bill didn’t draft him himself.

Later, it looked like Douglas was going to redeem himself with a big punt return to the New England 43, but the Patriots were offsides on the punt, giving the Commanders a fresh set of downs. Again, when do you see these mistakes on special teams from a Belichick-coached team? Happening a lot these days.

Jones and the offense eventually got the ball back with 2:07 left, but they were at their own 9. The drive reached the Washington 41, but that’s when Jones’ pass for JuJu went off the receiver’s hands and was caught for a game-ending interception. The throw was totally fine.

While the quarterback position continues to fail the new Patriots, so does most other positions, especially the wide receivers. This team needs a multi-year rebuild, which sounds like the job of a young coach to me. Maybe one that will let a general manager do their job and the coach does their job of just coaching.

The Patriots (2-7) are dead last in the AFC.

Colts at Panthers: The Worst Day Yet for Carolina Fans

In hindsight, the Panthers holding C.J. Stroud and the Texans to 13 points last week for their first win feels like a miracle given what these teams did in Week 9. After Stroud had an incredible game against Tampa Bay, that raised the bar again for what Young, the No. 1 pick in the draft, needed to do against a Colts team that has been bleeding points this season.

The result was terrible as the Panthers scored 3 points halfway through the third quarter, and Young ended up throwing a pair of pick-sixes to Kenny Moore to lose 27-13 at home. The Panthers wasted a defensive effort that saw them hold the Colts to 3.5 yards per play. Indy’s streak of being the only team to score 20 points in every game this season likely ends if the Carolina offense did not give up 2 touchdowns, including that awful one right before halftime.

Even Adam Thielen was a non-factor this week with 5 catches for 29 yards. Young took 4 sacks and threw 3 interceptions. It was an embarrassing loss for coach Frank Reich, who was facing his former team with rookie coach Shane Steichen getting the decisive win.

The Colts (4-5) are still alive while the Panthers (1-7) have to play this Thursday night in Chicago in a game no one really wants to watch.

Giants at Raiders: Post-Nut Clarity in Vegas

Finally, a Week 9 game that played out almost to expectations. The Raiders got that post-firing of Josh McDaniels bump and played their best game of the season by finally scoring 30 points, all on offense with Aidan O’Connell leading three 60-yard touchdown drives to start the game.

Josh Jacobs lost out on a 100-yard rushing game with his last carry in the 30-6 blowout, but he scored twice. Davante Adams was still quiet (4-of-7 for 34 yards), but at least he caught more than 1 ball this week. The Raiders also kept O’Connell clean with no sacks and no turnovers, something Jimmy Garoppolo was unable to do in a game this season.

But it certainly helped to be playing the Giants, who lost Daniel Jones to potentially a torn ACL. Backup Tommy DeVito was sacked 6 times and picked twice in a big game for the defense.

We’ll see how interim coach Antonio Pierce fares against better opponents, but he at least was able to do things with this team that McDaniels had not in the first half of this season.

Cardinals at Browns: The 2000 Ravens Would Be Proud

We may never get confirmation from a whistleblower that the 2023 Cardinals tanked the season, but we have circumstantial evidence they are doing it:

  • Letting DeAndre Hopkins walk
  • Cutting Colt McCoy in late August
  • Bringing Joshua Dobbs in late in camp to be your Week 1 starter
  • Blowing a 28-7 lead at home in the third quarter to the Giants, one of the only teams that is garbage enough to finish with a worse record than this talent-less Arizona roster
  • Making Dallas your unfortunate patsy to prove you are trying to win
  • Slow roll Kyler Murray’s return to action from a torn ACL, which is typically a 9-month recovery that has gone about 10.5 months for him (and counting)
  • Trade Dobbs for peanuts to Minnesota at the trade deadline
  • Start rookie Clayton Tune, which sounds like the banjo kid from Deliverance, in a real game in Cleveland

That latest move led to a 27-0 loss that should have been predictable, yet it was still somehow worse than imagined. Clayton Tune finished 11-of-20 for 58 yards, 2 INTs, took 7 sacks for 41 yards, and he finished as Arizona’s leading rusher with 5 carries for 28 yards.

Tune is just the 5th quarterback since 1960 to take 7 sacks and throw for fewer than 60 yards on at least 20 pass attempts. Bobby Douglass did it twice for the Bears in 1969 and 1971. Dan Darragh did it for the 1968 Bills against the Raiders, and Bill Nelsen had such a game in 1965 for the Steelers against the Cardinals. Tune is the only one of the 5 to be shutout.

The Cardinals had 7 first downs, were 1-of-12 on third down, and they had 58 yards of total offense. It’s going to add to some incredible stats for the Cleveland defense in 2023, but it is hard to take this defense at face value given some of the opponents faced, including this gift from the Cardinals.

It reminds me of the 2000 season when the Ravens had those fantastic numbers on defense, and so did the Titans who were playing largely the same schedule in the old AFC Central. But those Ravens legitimized their run by doing it in the playoffs too, and the Browns will have to answer in those big games when they see Lamar Jackson and the Ravens again next week, and when Joe Burrow, who they have owned in the past, gets another shot with a healthier calf.

That’s to say nothing of a potential playoff run for this team, which now sits at 5-3. There hopefully won’t be any quarterbacks like Clayton Tune in the postseason. It was bad enough we had Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson in last year’s tournament.

Next week: The Week 10 schedule is legitimately horrific. Just look at the prime-time games for starters: Panthers-Bears on TNF, Jets-Raiders on SNF, and Broncos-Bills on MNF. If that’s not bad enough, there’s another Sunday 9:30 a.m. game with Colts-Patriots. You couldn’t find a worse island game schedule. It gets worse. The Chiefs, Eagles, Dolphins, and Rams are on a bye week. The big games are 49ers-Jaguars, Browns-Ravens, and I guess Texans-Bengals looks a lot more attractive than it did any other week this season.

Just save your money for Week 11.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 8

I’m not sure what was crazier in the NFL in Week 8. The Broncos finally beat the Chiefs, the Carolina Panthers finally won a game after trailing in the fourth quarter, or Sam Howell only took one sack against the Eagles. Several years have passed since two of those things happened, and Howell’s life has been shortened by several years this season.

Even the Chargers played a game where they led by at least 17 points (3 possessions) for the entire second half. That hadn’t happened in the last 60 games for them.

But Sunday was a streak-killing one around the league.

Just not for the 49ers, who got a 17th-straight game with a touchdown from Christian McCaffrey, their 3rd-straight loss, and Kyle Shanahan fell to 0-37 when trailing by at least 8 points in the fourth quarter. Business as usual there.

But we have a lot of games to cover, and there were 9 games with a comeback opportunity this week. We also had a pair of double-digit deficit comebacks after having none in Week 7 as the Colts (17-7) and Commanders (14-3) blew early leads.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Broncos: Things to Do in Denver When Your Streaks Are Dead

It was bound to happen eventually. The Chiefs would have a bad game, and their streak would be over. Which streak? Well, how about all of them?

  • 16 straight wins vs. Denver Broncos (longest active streak vs. one team) – OVER
  • 40 straight games without losing by more than 4 points (NFL record) – OVER
  • 40 straight games without losing by more than 7 points (4th-longest streak ever) – OVER
  • 40 straight games with a fourth-quarter/overtime lead or tie – OVER
  • 16 straight road division game wins (longest team streak in NFL history) – OVER
  • Patrick Mahomes – 35 straight games with a touchdown pass, including playoffs (longest active streak) – OVER
  • Patrick Mahomes – 16 straight road division game wins as starter (2nd-longest streak for starting quarterback behind only Joe Montana, 20) – OVER

Mahomes was also reportedly 25-0 against teams who were 2 games below .500 before Sunday, though I’ve never put much stock in anything based on record at the time.

But the reason these streaks largely go back 40 games is that was the 27-3 loss to the Titans in 2021, the only game where Mahomes and the Chiefs lost wire-to-wire (never led). Well, Sunday in Denver was the second wire-to-wire loss for Mahomes and the Chiefs. It is only the 4th loss by more than 8 points for him.

Was it the weather? They have played in colder, and the snow didn’t materialize during the game. Was it Mahomes having the flu this weekend? He didn’t seem to be lacking in energy as he ran for his life throughout the game, which was a bigger issue itself.

It really is as simple as you can’t turn the ball over 5 times on the road and expect to win in this league. But in a weird twist, I came away from this game with more confidence in the Kansas City defense and less confidence in the offense going forward.

If you look at Denver’s offense in this game, while Russell Wilson passed for 3 touchdowns, he only had 114 yards on 19 attempts, and it gets worse when you consider he took 6 sacks for 27 yards and lost a fumble. That means the Chiefs held Wilson under 100 net passing yards twice in 17 days.

While Denver scored 24 points, those drives came on short fields where the offense only gained 39, 50, 10, and 10 yards. That’s 24 points on 109 yards. That’s ridiculous. Denver started at the 50 or better on every scoring drive.

This is why the turnovers hurt so much, and the Kansas City defense did its best to mitigate them:

  • Turnover No. 1 was a bad one as Marquez Valdes-Scantling fumbled a completion in Denver territory, which led to a 50-yard touchdown drive for the Broncos.
  • Turnover No. 2 was a Mahomes interception that ended up not mattering since the Chiefs stopped Wilson on a 4th-down run, and the Chiefs were 5 yards ahead of where they were before the pick 90 seconds later.
  • Turnover No. 3 was a strip-sack of Mahomes in the red zone, which was big, but Wilson also lost a fumble on a sack, and the Chiefs got a 56-yard field goal out of it, so it may have been a 4-point mistake at most.
  • The Chiefs blocked a 38-yard field goal to start the third quarter, which was another mini-turnover for Denver.
  • Turnover No. 4 was the killer as Mecole Hardman muffed a punt when the Chiefs were going to get the ball back in a 14-9 game with 11:15 to play. Instead, the Broncos had a 10-yard touchdown drive to go up 21-9.
  • Turnover No. 5 was moot when you’re throwing up a prayer on 4th-and-27, don’t get the flag for contact on the receiver, and by catching the ball, Jusitn Simmons cost his team 6 yards in field position.

I know a particular group of people, likely from New England area codes, are going to say I took the blame off Mahomes. I didn’t. It was one of the worst games of his career. But any rational analysis will tell you his turnovers were not as impactful as the fumbles by his skill players, especially that muffed punt by a problematic player they shouldn’t have brought back.

For as bad as this was, I still think the Chiefs can pull this one out if they had the ball in a 14-9 game. The muff killed them and changed how the rest of the game would be played.

I also think the Chiefs erroneously fell in love with throws short of the sticks early in this game and paid for it as Denver was not biting this week. A minus-4 yard completion to Isiah Pacheco blew up the opening drive for a 3-and-out. A minus-1 yard completion to Rashee Rice, who later had a bad drop at midfield, on a 3rd-and-2 killed another drive at the goal line, leading to a field goal instead of a touchdown. Jerick McKinnon was also stuffed for a 3-yard loss on a 3rd-and-2 run in the red zone that led to another field goal.

The Chiefs didn’t attack enough this week, and by the time the game got into a 2-touchdown deficit, Mahomes was under pressure a lot. I also think going for the deep touchdown shot on 4th-and-2 at the Denver 26 with 7:40 left was highly questionable. The fact the target was Skyy Moore makes it downright laughable as he is the player you call plays for if you want the offense to die.

The Kansas City offense played very poorly in this one and Denver was good enough to take advantage. But unlike the other 3 blowout losses for the Chiefs (Super Bowl 55, 2021 Bills, 2021 Titans), this one was not a bad defensive performance too. I’m learning to trust that unit.

The problem coming into this season was who do they have to catch the ball after Kelce. Through 8 games, the answer looks like not much. With the trade deadline this Tuesday, they may need to do something drastic, because the way this season is going, it’s ending early in January with Mahomes trying to make a throw on 4th & 25+.

In a way, this could be a well-timed loss for the Chiefs. You don’t want everyone kissing your ass week after week, and sometimes it takes a good ass kicking to fix what’s wrong and improve. The way the Chiefs played to get to 6-1 was not good enough for a championship run. They need to be better than that, and we’ll see if the trip to Germany and a high-profile opponent like Miami can bring out their best, or if it only further shows they have taken a step back this year to the pack.

Time to start some new streaks, because they left them all behind in Denver in one of the ugliest performances of the Mahomes era.

I had an inkling ever since Sean Payton signed in Denver that this would be the game when the streak ends. But 24-9? Was never in my mind. And to think the Chiefs scored only 3 field goals on a day when DeAndre Hopkins caught 3 touchdowns…

Bengals at 49ers: Someone Let Them Know Beating Dallas Wasn’t the Super Bowl

Don’t look now, but the Bengals have moved up to No. 9 in the AFC, and they look more stable and reliable than the other 4-3 teams ahead of them (Steelers, Browns, and Jets). But the Bengals still trail those teams because they are 0-3 against AFC teams this season.

However, by winning in San Francisco, the Bengals completed a 4-0 sweep of the NFC West. This was the biggest one with the 49ers being the best team, or so we thought before what is now a 3-game losing streak with Brock Purdy’s turnover issues catching up to the offense.

That was always the main issue going into this season. What if those interceptions that Purdy gets away with start getting caught? Well, concussion related or not, the mistakes are turning into turnovers and the team is losing games that were within a score in the fourth quarter over it.

This one also exposed the defense some more as Joe Burrow was 28-of-32 for 283 yards and 3 touchdowns in one of his best games of his career. The way Kirk Cousins was quick and decisive with good protection on Monday night seemed to carry over for the way the Bengals played this game on the road. Even the running game was strong with Joe Mixon rushing for 87 yards and a touchdown.

Despite suffering a concussion on Monday night and getting cleared in record time under the new protocol, it would be hard to say that was the issue for Purdy here. He led the team with 57 rushing yards, which is a separate issue as it makes you ask why Christian McCaffrey (12 carries for 54 yards) wasn’t more dominant on the ground. But Purdy had solid passing numbers without Deebo Samuel in a 17-10 game that was about to go to the fourth quarter with the 49ers in the red zone.

That’s when his Mr. Irrelevant-looking mistake bit him as he tried to throw a pass near the sideline and it was intercepted and almost returned the distance for a touchdown. The Bengals did not turn that one into any points, but they intercepted Purdy on the next play from scrimmage too, and that one set up a 17-yard touchdown drive in one play after Ja’Marr Chase pulled in a score to make it 24-10.

Purdy threw a touchdown to McCaffrey, his second of the game, but the Bengals were flawless in a 4-minute offense situation with a 78-yard touchdown drive that consumed 5:18 and put the team back on top 31-17 with 2:54 left. Purdy was strip-sacked by Trey Hendrickson, then later padded the stats a bit with two meaningless completions for 69 yards.

No team steps up for every big game, but the Bengals answered the call here with excellent performances in the passing game, running game, and for the defense to hold down what was another elite offense with a bunch of big turnovers.

Eagles at Commanders: Almost a Repeat of Last Time

I guess I’m still stuck on what the 2022 Eagles were, because both Washington matchups this month burned me on predictions. I thought the Eagles would blow them out at least once, yet this game almost went to overtime at 31-31 just like the first game did. For some reason, Sam Howell turns into Steve Young when he plays this defense, which does not have the same pass rush as last year’s Super Bowl team.

Fortunately, these Eagles have an even better version of A.J. Brown as he just set the NFL record with his 6th-consecutive 125-yard receiving game. He barely hit the number (130), but it was enough to score 2 touchdowns and help this team to a 7-1 start.

But Washington did not make it easy again on the Eagles, who were even stopped on the Brotherly Shove after a Jalen Hurts fumble on 1st-and-goal at the 1, and they had to come back from a 24-17 deficit in the fourth quarter. DeVonta Smith caught a 38-yard touchdown to tie the game in his best game in many weeks, then the defense came up with an interception to put the Eagles at the 7-yard line for a short touchdown drive that ended with a pass to Julio Jones, who decided to dress as a red zone threat for Halloween.

Howell had a lot of good moments in this game, and it showed the potential he has if he can cut down on the sacks and other mistakes. But there were a few too many pivotal moments that went against him and the Commanders. The Philadelphia comeback from a 14-3 deficit started after Howell, who hit 20 of his first 21 passes, misfired on a 4th-and-1 pass late in the first half. Later, he threw the pick to Reed Blankenship that put Washington down 31-24, then on a 4th-and-8 at the Philadelphia 40, his pass was low and would have been a very tough catch for Terry McLaurin.

Then after getting one more chance to tie the game or possibly take the lead, Howell suffered his only sack of the game on a 4th down when Haason Reddick got to him and knocked the ball out, setting up the Eagles for a 16-yard touchdown drive to put it away at 38-24.

Washington still got another touchdown to screw the Eagles -7 bettors in a 38-31 game, but it was too late. At the very least, Howell did not tie records for the longest streaks in NFL history taking 4 or 5 sacks in a game. But the Eagles still completed the sweep of Washington, now a 3-5 team.

Jaguars at Steelers: Mike Tomlin’s Boogeyman

Nothing is scarier to Mike Tomlin’s Steelers than the Jacksonville Jaguars getting off the team bus in Pittsburgh. In franchise history, the Steelers have only been swept at home in a season twice, and both times it was the Jaguars against Tomlin in 2007 and 2017.

The good news for Steelers fans: Don’t worry about a Jacksonville sweep happening this year, because this team won’t have a home playoff game.

The Steelers (4-3) may not have any playoff games if they keep playing like this. The ironic thing about those Jacksonville sweeps is that in both seasons, the Jaguars had the kind of offense that is more of what the Steelers aspire to be. Physical, strong running game that sets up the pass, tough quarterback, and a solid offensive line.

In 2023, the Jaguars are again what the Steelers wish they can be on offense. Trevor Lawrence was the first quarterback taken in his draft class, he struggled as a rookie, but he improved last year with a new set of talented receivers. They used a first-round pick on running back Travis Etienne, hoping to turn his college production into pro production alongside his Clemson teammate.

While no one had Kenny Pickett anywhere near the level of Lawrence as a prospect, he was the first quarterback taken in 2022, and there was a thought he could improve in his second season alongside a talented receiving duo (George Pickens and Diontae Johnson), and the team used the pick right before Etienne in 2021 to take Najee Harris.

But on Sunday, it couldn’t be any clearer that Pittsburgh’s plan is failing while the Jaguars (6-2) are on the longest active winning streak in the NFL at 5 games.

  • Lawrence passed for 292 yards in the rain and survived the pass rush of the Steelers despite 3 sacks on quick pressures his line is known to allow.
  • Pickett was 10-of-16 for 73 yards and was knocked out of the game in the first half with a rib injury.
  • It took the Steelers 5 drives to gain a first down.
  • Etienne had the game’s longest play with a 56-yard touchdown catch while Harris had 55 yards on 12 touches.
  • George Pickens’ 22-yard touchdown catch was his only catch in the game while Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, and tight end Evan Engram combined for 20 catches for 217 yards.

It was Pittsburgh’s miserable offensive performance that wasted a defense that had 3 takeaways, and the Steelers were still trailing 17-3 with that 3-0 edge in the turnover department.

Enter Mitch Trubisky for Pickett, and one of the things a good backup should do is manage the game and not make the fatal mistakes to blow it. But Trubisky has a higher interception rate (2.8%) in Pittsburgh than he did in Chicago (2.3%) as he was careless with the ball again.

After Pittsburgh’s defense sacked Lawrence out of field-goal range in the fourth quarter, Trubisky had the ball in a 17-10 game with 10:14 left. But he quickly threw a poor pass deep that was picked off. The Jaguars had no problem turning that into another field goal, and taking a 20-10 lead with 4:35 left. The Steelers turned it over on downs, and that was basically a wrap. Trubisky threw another pick on a Hail Mary to end the game and make the turnover battle look closer at 3-2 Pittsburgh, but that is still no excuse for the Steelers to waste as many drives as they did on offense.

Pickett or Trubisky, I’m not sure there’s a difference or it matters right now. Not as long as Matt Canada is calling a pathetic offense and Tomlin seems to have no input on how to fix it.

The Steelers could take advantage of a rookie quarterback (Tennessee’s Will Levis) on a short week this Thursday to win another home game. But when it comes to playing a legitimate contender with a great offense like the Chiefs or Eagles, we see how the Steelers get blown out in recent years. When they play a playoff-caliber team like Jacksonville, they usually fold in those games too with the offense struggling to do anything.

This team is stuck in purgatory, and until major changes come, they will not ascend to being anything better than that.

Rams at Cowboys: Early Knockout

I miss the old days when the Cowboys had normal game scripts. This one was over when CeeDee Lamb caught his first touchdown to give Dallas a 26-3 lead with 12:45 left in the second quarter. Never mind the 43-20 scorigami that followed.

That’s right, it was a 23-point game just minutes into the second quarter. Oddly enough, the Dallas offense was the least impressive part of this run due to some sacks that made them look underwhelming. The special teams kicked ass with a 58-yard field goal, a punt blocked for a safety, and a 63-yard kick return on the free kick.

The defense intercepted Matthew Stafford for a 30-yard touchdown, then Micah Parsons sacked him on a third down before the punt block.

This was just an ass-kicking with the Rams never getting closer than 16 points the rest of the way. Stafford didn’t finish the game with a thumb injury that may have gotten worse on a play where he caught a 2-point conversion. Yes, he caught a pass.

It was the kind of mess I thought we’d see more often from the Rams this year given the roster limitations. But if Stafford is hurt and they already seem to have broken the Cooper Kupp connection (under 30 yards in back-to-back games), then what good is this team going forward?

Dallas just has to stay the course, because the talent is there to put it all together at the right time. Beating the Eagles next week would be a huge statement.

Patriots at Dolphins: Tua Moves to 6-0 vs. Belichick

I have said before that it’s kind of annoying that Tua Tagovailoa gets to be the first and only quarterback to go 5-0 against Bill Belichick, because he’s been facing the weakest of the New England teams, and he hasn’t even done a whole lot in those games (4 TD, 3 INT). He just avoids the big mistakes and his defense forces the Patriots into them with some huge fumbles.

But on Sunday, Tagovailoa had his best game yet against Belichick to move to 6-0 against the Patriots in his career. He passed for 324 yards and 3 touchdowns, the first time he had over 270 yards and more than 1 touchdown pass against New England.

But much like in Week 2, this was a 24-17 game in the fourth quarter with the Patriots (+8.5) hanging around. And just like in Week 2, the Dolphins hit a big play to turn the Patriots back after they made it a one-score game with Mac Jones finding JuJu Smith-Schuster on a 3-yard touchdown pass on fourth down.

Back in the day, the Patriots would force Miami into a mistake and get the ball back so you know who would have real chances to complete the comeback. But that’s rarely the case with these new Patriots.

Sure enough, the Patriots allowed Miami to convert a 3rd-and-9 to Tyreek Hill at midfield, then gave up a 31-yard touchdown to Jaylen Waddle on a 3rd-and-1 with 2:43 left to effectively end the game at 31-17.

This is the kind of thing that would never happen to New England in the dynasty years. Literally never, cause I had to look it up seeing as how the Dolphins did something similar in Week 2 when Raheem Mostert had a long touchdown run to go up 2 touchdowns on the Patriots.

We always hear about Belichick being so good at limiting the big plays, playing his bend-but-don’t-break style of defense, and making teams earn it on long drives. I thought allowing a 30-yard touchdown in a game you’re trailing by 1 score that makes it a 2-score game would look really bad. I looked it up, and sure enough, this never happened once to the Patriots in the Tom Brady years in 2001-19. But since, it’s happened 4 times now, including both games against the 2023 Dolphins. It also happened against the 2021 Colts and 2022 Bills, so that’s 4 times in the post-Brady years, none in the Brady era. You can’t make this stuff up.

Even if you drop it to 20 yards so that it’s all touchdowns from outside the red zone, it’s 2 (2006 Jets, 2017 Chiefs) vs. 4 times.

Belichick is the coach, so he has to take some blame for this. But it’s another one of those things that I refuse to credit Brady for not allowing to happen during his two decades. He didn’t play defense, unless you think he was a witch that had the power to will his teammates from the bench to do things for him.

I think it’s more of the Patriots don’t have defenders worth a damn like they used to step in and make a play, and it’s also the divisional opponents that have gotten so much more talented on offense (Bills and Dolphins, at least) that are doing this to them better than anyone.

Down 14 inside of 3:00, the Patriots went 4-and-out to end this one, dropping them to 2-6 in a division that now has the 6-2 Dolphins, 5-3 Bills, and 4-3 Jets.

New England is dead last in the AFC going into Week 9.

Browns at Seahawks: Late Pick Dooms Cleveland

On a list of hard-fought wins, this one would have to rank highly this season for Seattle. Both quarterbacks threw 2 interceptions, and it could have easily been more for both with the way the defenses were flashing all day long.

But it was P.J. Walker’s late pick that doomed the Browns. I get why they wanted to throw on a 3rd-and-3 at their 41 with the Seahawks still having a few timeouts and it was going to be the 2-minute warning after that play. But you have to protect the ball better, and Jamal Adams was able to deflect it to a teammate for a huge interception that set up Geno Smith at the Seattle 43 in a 20-17 game.

We talk about Geno not having a great record with comebacks, but he made the Cleveland defense fold like a cheap suit on this drive. Noah Fant had a 27-yard gain, and with a good block, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was able to spring free for a 9-yard touchdown with 38 seconds left to take a 24-20 lead.

This one probably goes to overtime at worst if Walker did anything but throw that pick. He still had a chance to do something with 38 seconds and 2 timeouts, but the Seahawks sacked him on third down, then he threw incomplete on 4th-and-19 to end the game.

Thanks to the 49ers (5-3) losing their third in a row, the Seahawks (5-2) are in first place in the NFC West. They won’t meet until Thanksgiving, but it should be interesting to see where this race goes with the Seahawks going to Baltimore next.

The Browns kind of stole a couple from the 49ers and Colts the last two weeks, so giving up one here in Seattle only feels fair for this 4-3 team that has lost some luster with the defense the last couple of games.

Texans at Panthers: Everyone’s a Winner Now

I was all about the Carolina Panthers (+3.5) getting their first win as my upset pick this week. Thought we would see more offense than 13-12, but the Panthers had no running game to speak of with the backs accounting for 20 carries for 33 yards. Bryce Young also took 6 sacks, so it was a miserable day for the offensive line.

Still, we rarely see NFL games with this much offensive struggle. It was the first game since 2018 Bills-Titans to end with neither team reaching 14 points and 230 yards offense. That game also happened to end 13-12.

The Texans punted on 6-of-9 drives and lost a fumble in the third quarter. But after taking a 13-12 lead when C.J. Stroud rushed for a 1-yard touchdown on a fourth-down play, the Texans never put the game away. They also missed a big 2-point conversion that would have made it 15-12 and protected against a field goal.

But this set the stage for the Panthers to end one of the league’s most embarrassing streaks. Since 2018, the Panthers had lost 56 games in a row when trailing in the fourth quarter. Their opportunity here would be the easiest comeback type there is with a 1-point deficit and an entire quarter to do something about it.

But the streak did finally end after a bumpy ride to get there with Young taking a pair of 3rd-down sacks in the quarter to end drives. But after the Texans stalled out inside the Carolina 40, Young got the ball back at his own 9 with 6:17 left to have his moment. He made some easy plays, and then overcame another sack by getting a screen pass to Adam Thielen, then fitting a ball in a tight window on a 4th-and-2 at midfield. The running game finally made a positive contribution with Chuba Hubbard using 3 runs to make a first down and burn precious clock.

The Panthers consumed the final 6:17 off the clock and set up the field goal as the final play. After the Texans were penalized for illegally trying to disrupt the kick, the 23-yard field goal from Eddy Pineiro was finally through the upright and the 56-game losing streak was over.

The advanced stats hate sacks, so you’ll probably see Stroud come out higher than Young in this game, but I think Young hung in there well on a day he had no running game, minimal protection, and the Panthers started 3 drives inside their own 10, including the one to win the game.

Maybe with a win in the books, we’ll see some better play out of the Panthers going forward. At least I can’t keep dogging them for always losing this kind of game like they did the last 5 years.

Ravens at Cardinals: Onside Kick Leads to Absurd Backdoor Cover for Awful Team

I guess the stats won’t reflect it since there were 27 points scored in the final 10 minutes alone, but I really thought this was a poor offensive game for both teams. It’s funny how the Ravens could put on one of the best performances by any team this season in stomping a solid Detroit roster last week but send them to Arizona and they couldn’t even walk away with a double-digit win like every other Arizona opponent has since Week 4.

Lamar Jackson did not stack big games this week as he only passed for 157 yards, and he would have been 0-for-5 on targets to Odell Beckham Jr. if not for a defensive penalty flag. Zay Flowers had 5 catches for 19 yards.

Like I said, this was largely a dud with two Joshua Dobbs interceptions leading to short field touchdown drives for the Ravens. But even after they led 31-15 with 2:51 left, the Ravens (-9.5) couldn’t cover the spread. They gave up a touchdown, stopped the 2-point conversion to keep it 31-21, but the Cardinals recovered a rare onside kick. We get so few of those in an NFL season, and this one was a waste as it only served to piss off Baltimore bettors. Matt Prater hit a 47-yard field goal with 26 seconds left to make it 31-24, and of course they didn’t recover a second onside kick.

Should have known better that it was too good to be true that the Ravens could win back-to-back games by double digits.

Saints at Colts: Defense Fails Again for Indy

In a season where so many teams are struggling to score, I appreciate Shane Steichen for getting his Colts to score 20+ points every single week. They did it again by halftime in this one, even leading 17-7 at one point, as the New Orleans defense is losing its shine more and more each week.

Unfortunately, the Colts are one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL, and this game was one of the lower points of the season as they made Derek Carr look like a viable deep passer. Carr finished 19/27 for 310 yards and 2 touchdowns, including 153 yards on 3 catches by Rashid Shaheed.

This was an offensive explosion for the 2023 Saints while the Colts were rough in the second half. Gardner Minshew avoided the strip-sacks this week, but he was picked near the goal line in the third quarter, then both fourth quarter drives when the Colts were only down by one touchdown failed. The Saints put it away with a field goal after Shaheed’s second 50-yard catch of the game converted a 3rd-and-13 situation with 2:52 left.

Maybe the Saints (4-4), the preseason division favorite, are still the right team to back in the NFC South this year. But this was already the 4th home game this season where the Colts gave up more than 28 points.

If that sounds like a lot for Week 8, that’s because 4 home games allowing 29+ points is the most by any Colts team in a full season since 1997 (4).

Jets at Giants: Sucking on Offense Everything Everywhere All at Once

If you thought it was pretty bad last week when the Giants and Commanders played a game with more possessions (27) than points (21), this one was even worse. Or does sucking more on offense actually make this the better game since the expectations were for them to be bad, and it somehow blew those away?

This is the kind of nonsense you grow to expect from The Battle of New York. This game had a whopping 34 possessions and 23 points, meaning the last two Giants games have had a total of 44 points on 61 possessions (0.72 points per drive). This team is single-handedly killing offense in 2023.

And yet, the Giants should have won this game in regulation despite having minus-8 net passing yards, something that hadn’t been done in the NFL in a win since the 1977 Eagles did it against the Giants (of course). The Giants lost Tyrod Taylor to a rib injury, backup Tommy Devito had time between his Jersey Boys rehearsals to score a rushing touchdown, and the Giants were on track to win this game despite punting 12 times.

That just goes to show how bad Zach Wilson is. After he took a 15-yard sack on 4th-and-10 with 1:26 left, the ending should have been nearly routine despite the Jets having 2 timeouts left.

But Brian Daboll, who should never get another Coach of the Year vote ever again, screwed up. He had a 4th-and-1 at New York’s 17 with 28 seconds left. You run the ball in this situation. It’s a 70% conversion rate flat, and even higher if you go with any kind of quarterback sneak. You don’t kick a field goal and leave them time in a 6-point game to beat you with a miracle touchdown. At worst, you don’t convert, and they’ll still play for the field goal anyway and overtime. That’s why you take the slight risk and go for the yard to end the game.

He chose field goal, and Graham Gano added to his growing list of chokes with a wide left 35-yard kick on a day that was not ideal weather on a field with a shit surface. One of the worst decisions of the season.

But little did anyone expect Wilson to make the Giants pay. He found his receivers twice for gains of 29 yards each, and he was able to get the offense ready for a spike with 1 second left. Greg Zuerlein was not going to miss his 35-yard field goal, and he sent the game to overtime. Stunning collapse.

If there was ever a game where you didn’t want to go first on offense in overtime, this should have been the one. The Giants had 3 plays all game that gained 10 yards, and one was a 17-yard run by Taylor, who was out. And yet, Daboll elected to receive first. What did he think was going to happen? They were going to magically put together a touchdown drive against one of the best defenses in the league to end it?

The Giants punted for the 13th time in the game, because all it took was a holding penalty on first down to completely kill the drive with a 1st-and-20.

To Wilson’s credit, he did convert a big 3rd-and-10 to avoid going three-and-out again for the Jets. Then a 30-yard defensive pass interference penalty set up Zuerlein for the 33-yard game-winning field goal to end this one 13-10.

I said on Saturday this game was most likely to end in a push with the Jets winning by 3. I think the Jets are one of the worst 4-3 teams I’ve ever seen, but the Giants deserved to lose this one with the stupid things they did late in the game.

Falcons at Titans: Farewell to the Ryan Tannehill Era

When your quarterback is in his mid-30s, coming off a bad year, and your team drafts a quarterback with a top 50 pick, that veteran’s days are probably numbered. Will Levis plummeted on draft night after some thought he could go in the top 4, but it was only a matter of time before he’d get a shot in Tennessee, especially with Ryan Tannehill’s extensive injury history.

That moment came in Week 8 and Will Levis joined Fran Tarkenton and Marcus Mariota as the only quarterbacks in NFL history to throw 4 touchdown passes in their debut. Let’s hope his career turns out better than Mariota’s did.

I loved the prop of DeAndre Hopkins scoring his first touchdown as no one was more due than him, but 3 in one game with the rookie quarterback? Tannehill had 2 touchdown passes on 158 attempts this year.

Now that does sound like something a classic Atlanta defense would do against a rookie, but I was still surprised at the Titans having that many big plays. Levis had three 30-yard touchdown passes in this game.

Was every ball perfectly thrown or against tight coverage? No, but I think you have to be fairly encouraged after a debut like this, especially with how little the Titans were getting out of their passing game with Tannehill. I think Mike Vrabel needs to stick with the rookie even when Tannehill is healthy.

As for the Falcons, they pulled Desmond Ridder for Taylor Heinicke in this one, or was it a concussion concern? Either way, Ridder wasn’t getting the job done and lost another fumble.

Heinicke had some shots in the fourth quarter to lead a game-winning touchdown drive, but it didn’t work out either time. I think the Falcons should have ran the ball on 4th-and-1 at their own 22 with 1:33 left just to make sure they’d get the first down before hurrying up, but Arthur Smith had other ideas.

Now the Falcons have quarterback questions, and the Titans have some new hope on their side. Levis had as many touchdown passes in his debut as Ridder had in his first 7 starts combined (4). Levis also had as many touchdown passes in his debut as Kenny Pickett’s best 3 games combined (2+1+1), and Pickett could be Levis’ next opponent if he is cleared to play Thursday night.

We’ll see how it goes, but Game No. 1 was a smashing success for the rookie.

Vikings at Packers: Et tu, Kirk? 😦

I have taken my share of shots and jokes at Kirk Cousins’ expense over the years, but I am truly upset that his season just likely ended to an Achilles tear after he was playing some of his best ball and may have led this team to a wild card position.

For all of Cousins’ shortcomings, he is still one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league, and he’s been a gamer with only one game missed to injury for a positive COVID test in his career. In a league where so many quarterbacks are struggling, having someone you could reliably expect to throw for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns means something.

Right, Green Bay fans? An accurate quarterback matters, and Jordan Love just isn’t that guy yet. He may never be. But it’s also true that this experiment of surrounding Love with a ton of young skill players is not working out for Matt LaFleur. Christian Watson’s big touchdown run from last year is looking like a fluke. Even the running game failed as Love led the Packers with 34 rushing yards in this game, another slow start for the offense that saw Green Bay trailing 10-3 at halftime.

The Packers never got closer than 24-10 in the fourth quarter, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t multiple opportunities to make this a game. The worst part was after Cousins was injured (non-contact) in the fourth quarter, the backup came in and coughed it up on a strip-sack just 3 plays into the drive. The Packers immediately started in the red zone, but just like the previous drive, they turned it over on downs after Love was unable to finish the job. A 15-yard scramble on 4th-and-16? Please.

At 2-5, Green Bay looks effectively done for the playoff race this year. At 4-4 with such a favorable remaining schedule, I’m not sure what the Vikings do. Trade for Kyler Murray? Eh, I don’t know about that one. It’s just unfortunate as this is the year that will be remembered for the quarterback Achilles injuries, Cousins and Rodgers. One was going to be an MVP candidate, and the other was actually leading the league in touchdown passes the week he was injured.

Just the most unfortunate part of this game, and if you’re a Green Bay fan, you know how good you had it when Brett Favre started 321 games in a row.

Bears at Chargers: NBC Gets the Dud It Deserved

Our 14th and final game is fittingly the Sunday night pillow fight between the Bears and Chargers, who both entered Week 8 as the No. 14 seed in their conference. Not only should this game have been flexed out of SNF, but it never should have made the prime-time schedule. I could have told you that in April or even in March when the Bears traded the top pick to Carolina.

I’m not convinced this is any more of a game if Justin Fields was the starter as the Bears had no answers for Justin Herbert’s passing (31-of-40 for 298 yards, 3 TD) while the offense neglected to throw to D.J. Moore in the second half against arguably the worst pass defense in the league.

Seriously, what kind of Chargers game has them with a 30-7 lead in the fourth quarter with not even a hint of a collapse around the corner? That was garbage, and I hope the NFL remembers that the next time they have the chance to flex out a bad game on what is supposed to be the prestigious spot in their weekly programming.

Instead, we had to listen to Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth talk up Tyson Bagent for 3 hours. Oh, the horror.

Next week: Bring on the legitimately big games. Chiefs-Dolphins, Seahawks-Ravens, Cowboys-Eagles, and Bengals-Bills are all part of the Week 9 schedule. I might have to actually get up before 10:00 AM for this one.

NFL Week 7 Predictions: Take the Over Edition

It’s not that the NFL’s Week 7 schedule is filled with great games, but I like it because each time slot has something that could be really good on Sunday. Lions-Ravens highlights 1 p.m., Chargers-Chiefs is my favorite division rivalry to watch this decade in the 4:25 slot, and the Sunday night game might finally be a great one with the Dolphins taking on the Eagles. If that game doesn’t go over 50 points, I’ll be surprised (and disappointed).

That’s my other talking point this week in that I expect it to be a good week for overs. Why? Last week was incredible for unders with a 12-2-1 record. This was similar to Week 1 when the under was 12-4. What happened in Week 2? The over was 13-3. It’s an up-and-down league, especially this year.

We already saw a taste of this Thursday night when the Jaguars beat the Saints 31-24, the first over to hit in New Orleans’ last 13 games. You still have to play the matchups, but when in doubt, think over this week.

This Week’s Articles:

Patrick Mahomes Through 100 Starts: The Best Quarterback Ever? – A deep dive into Mahomes after 100 starts, where he stacks up historically, and if he’ll be adding any more hardware this season.

NFL Week 7 Predictions

Honestly, I don’t know why I backed the Saints on Thursday night. I had Jaguars +3 early in the week if you click on my prime-time picks above, so I don’t know what made me change it. Drew Brees wasn’t walking out that tunnel on Thursday night. It was Derek Carr with more interest in throwing to Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill than his trio of wide receivers.

Did I pick 7/13 underdogs to cover and 5 to win outright? That’s what happens when so many teams look evenly matched and few teams stand out above the pack.

Wouldn’t it be such a #RandomNFL thing for the Browns to beat the 49ers with P.J. Walker but lose to the Colts with Deshaun Watson back? I almost picked it outright, but we’ll go with an Indy cover. The Colts join the Dolphins and Lions as the only teams to score 20 points in every game this season. Cleveland’s defense is awesome but it’s not the 1985 Bears or 2000 Ravens.

I like the Giants to blitz and sack Sam Howell a lot to push him closer to 100 sacks this year.

I think there’s real value in picking Mac Jones to go way under his passing yards in this game or the next as the Patriots are probably going to be 1-7 after playing Buffalo and Miami, and he is getting benched for Malik Cunningham any quarter now.

I’m staying far away from that CHI-LV game. Check that, I’ll bet on Tyson Bagent to score a TD (+700), but that’s about it.

I think Lions can nip the Ravens in the 4Q in a 3-point game in Baltimore. Looking forward to that one. I have Jahmyr Gibbs scoring his first NFL TD.

I have Cooper Kupp dominating the Steelers with over 100 yards and a TD.

After all the criticism over Geno Smith this past week, I think he has a big game and Seahawks win easily.

I have a lot of KC-LAC research in the links above. I expect another very good game between these two. I have Rashee Rice going over with a TD. Kelce has to score a TD on National Tight Ends Day, right? He had 3 in his last game against the Chargers. Gerald Everett might even redeem himself after last year’s pick-6 disaster when he was winded in KC.

I picked the Broncos to intercept Jordan Love and finally get a home win under Sean Payton (0-3).

Already wrote my Miami upset pick in the above link, and I think the 49ers bounce back with a comfortable win over Kirk Cousins on a Monday night without Justin Jefferson.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 5

Well, I guess we’ll have to wait until Week 13 for the real Game of the Year in the NFC this season when the last two unbeatens in the league (49ers and Eagles) meet in Philadelphia. That rematch of last year’s championship game is still the only time Brock Purdy has lost a start in the NFL.

The Cowboys were so outclassed by the 49ers on Sunday night that Bill Belichick and Sean Payton should send Jerry Jones a gift basket for taking some of the heat and attention away from them suffering the lowest points of their careers.

It started as a pretty weird day with Buffalo losing to the London Jaguars after winning their last 3 games by 28+ points each. Then the Ravens gave a game away to the Steelers, the Colts are 3-2 after flipping the script on Tennessee, the Chiefs almost lost Taylor Swift Travis Kelce for the season, and the 49ers showed us what a super team looks like on Sunday night.

But there is a growing one-sidedness to this season. We only had 1 lead change in the fourth quarter in Week 4, and this week we only had two before Monday Night Football. Only 3 of the last 35 games have had a fourth-quarter lead change. That rate should usually be around 25% of games, not 8.6%. We’re going through a drought of exciting games as it mostly has been one team jumping out to a lead and hanging on.

In Week 5, there were only 7 games with a comeback opportunity, which would be the third week in a row without 8 opportunities. But I have a feeling Monday night will add one more. Before we get there, let’s recap Sunday’s action.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Cowboys at 49ers: Game of the Ye-Yeah It Was Another McCarthy Clusterf*ck

If this was a measuring stick game, then the 49ers took the stick and beat the Cowboys to death with it. They also put the rest of the league on notice that this is the best team in the NFL right now.

The closest Dallas came to staying with the 49ers on the scoreboard was for the 3 minutes and 50 seconds that this game remained 0-0 before George Kittle scored his first of three touchdowns on the night. Dallas trailed by at least 7 points for the final 56:10 on the way to a 42-10 loss.

I’d say it reminded me of the times when Mike McCarthy’s Packers went 0-4 against Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers in 2012-13, but those games were never this lopsided. This was much worse than the last two postseason losses for Dallas against the 49ers, which was supposed to be the motivating factor for the Cowboys to look better in this matchup if San Francisco is the new measuring stick in the NFC. Remember, it was 12-12 in the fourth quarter in the divisional round last year.

But it is looking like McCarthy will move to 0-7 against the 49ers in the years where they make the playoffs. This was the worst performance yet on both sides of the ball.

Save for one 78-yard touchdown drive, Dak Prescott played an awful game, finishing with 3 interceptions, 3 sacks, and only 153 passing yards before he was yanked in the final quarter of a blowout. Also, so much for Tony Pollard making an impact after he was injured in the playoff game last January. He had 8 carries for 29 yards, getting outrushed by Deebo Samuel (30 yards).

While the Dallas defense did come up with 3 stops in a row early in the game, they followed that by allowing 5 touchdowns on the next 6 drives. Good night, Irene. Brock Purdy looked more like the quarterback I saw shred Pittsburgh in Week 1 with a passing clinic as he ran his record to 13-0 in games where he attempts 20 passes. Purdy had 4 touchdown passes, confirming the Cowboys were no longer playing the Giants, Jets, Cardinals, and Patriots.

Christian McCaffrey scored a touchdown for the 14th game in a row despite the fact he only averaged 2.7 yards per carry and had a season-low 2 catches. But there were not even moral victories for Dallas in this one. This was the worst performance any team this year’s had against the 49ers.

It may only be a game in Week 5 and crazier things have happened before, but I don’t know how any Dallas fan could not be extremely pessimistic about the rest of the season after this. The Cowboys (3-2) still have to play the Eagles (twice), Bills, Dolphins, Lions, Chargers, and Seahawks. For a team that’s already lost to the Cardinals, we might as well mention they play the Commanders (twice) and Rams too.

Dallas was my Super Bowl loser pick in the NFC this year, and losing this game in Week 5 was part of my script. But even I would start walking that pick back after what I saw on Sunday night.

Meanwhile, the 49ers’ biggest question this year was if Purdy is a legitimate starter or if last year was a fluke. After Week 5, I think we have to admit he is capable of leading this team all the way.

The 49ers are 17-1 in their last 18 games, and you know what happened to the quarterback position in the only loss. They are only the 5th team to start a season at least 5-0 with 30 points scored in every game, joining the 2000 Rams, 2007 Patriots, 2013 Broncos, and 2018 Rams. Those last three teams all lost the Super Bowl that year, and the 2000 Rams lost a wild card game.

There’s a lot of season left, but we are witnessing something historic with the 49ers. As for Dallas, it is looking like the status quo, which means Macarena was on the Billboard Hot 100 more recently than the Cowboys were in the NFC Championship Game.

Ravens at Steelers: Respect the Rivalry

People who do not respect this rivalry do not understand that no matter what talent gap exists between these teams, they are always capable of playing a tight, low-scoring game that goes down to the wire.

Having said that, I am still in shock that the Ravens took a 10-0 lead with 12:23 left in the 2nd quarter and never scored again in a 17-10 loss. It is no understatement to say the Ravens left 30+ points on the field in one of the most egregious losses in the history of this rivalry. This is right up there with Kris Brown missing 4 field goals for Pittsburgh in 2001.

I’ll blame everyone on Baltimore except for Justin Tucker. Lamar Jackson was sharp early, but his receivers were terrible with a handful of drops before halftime. After the pressure increased as the game wore on, Jackson’s accuracy and decision making also fell apart, and he became another scapegoat in this terrible loss.

I have no idea what John Harbaugh and the Ravens were thinking to end the first half. Instead of bringing out Tucker for an easy 41-yard field goal on a 4th-and-2, the offense ran a play, and Jackson hurried a terrible throw that fell incomplete. There goes 3 points.

The Ravens may have escaped this one if not for a big blocked punt in the fourth quarter that almost turned into a touchdown, but the Steelers settled for a safety and 10-5 deficit. It was running back Jaylen Warren rather than Najee Harris who sparked the offense to get a field goal and make it 10-8. But even after getting a three-and-out, the Steelers fumbled the punt return and gave the Ravens a golden opportunity with a first-and-goal at the 7.

But on 3rd-and-5, Jackson forced a pass in the end zone to Odell Beckham Jr. and Joey Porter Jr. made a monster interception with 4:06 left. Down 10-8, Kenny Pickett is good for about one scoring drive a game. Sometimes they are timely ones like his game-winning touchdown drive against the Ravens last year.

This didn’t seem like a spot where he would step up after the offense struggled again, but he did. George Pickens had a huge quarter and came alive with two 20-yard plays. The last was a shocker as you would think the Steelers would set up a game-winning field goal with no time left, but they went for the dagger and Pickett hit Pickens deep after he beat Marlon Humphrey for a 41-yard touchdown with 1:17 left. Pittsburgh led 14-10 for the first time all day.

Jackson had plenty of time to answer, but on the second play of the drive, Alex Highsmith forced him to fumble on a sack, and T.J. Watt was there for the recovery. The Steelers saved the Ravens 40 seconds with a penalty on a kneeldown, a huge mistake. But the field goal made it 17-10 with 49 seconds left.

Things were not going well for the Ravens on the drive, and Watt made sure he was going to end it this time with a sack of Jackson on 4th-and-7 at his own 28. Game over. The Steelers somehow survived this one.

The 2023 Steelers are 3-2 and in first place in the AFC North, and I just find that so comical because this offense continues to suck. Frankly, the defense isn’t that good either, but this team’s magic sauce right now is getting quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Jackson – he added to his poor track record vs. Pittsburgh – to make enough mistakes to allow them to steal a win late. The Steelers have given up 30 points and been dominated by the 49ers and Texans, two teams running the Kyle Shanahan offensive system with quarterbacks (Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud) who seemingly can’t throw interceptions right now.

But give them a sack merchant or a risky thrower, and they are going to get enough big plays from the likes of T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Minkah Fitzpatrick to make the difference. Maybe Porter Jr. is the latest defender to save the day.

I’m still shocked the Ravens failed to score on their final 9 drives despite numerous opportunities to do so. Hell, I’m still shocked they watched Gardner Minshew pull an Orlovsky and they still lost that game to the Colts. Ditto on Sunday with the way the Steelers fumbled a punt at the 7-yard line late in the game.

Who wins the AFC North? Damned if I know at this point. It’s a mess of a division this year.

Chiefs at Vikings: Repeating Is Hard

Winning a Super Bowl is hard. Winning two in a row seems impossible these days in the NFL. But you know what might be even harder? Winning a ton of close games in back-to-back years.

The 2008-09 Colts pulled it off when Peyton Manning was at the height of his team-carrying powers, but most teams regress hard in close games the following year. The Vikings are feeling that now. After starting his career 8-0 at game-winning drive opportunities, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is 0-5 going back to the wild card playoff loss to the Giants.

This was another failed comeback, but unlike last year, this was another difficult situation with the Chiefs leading 27-13 to start the fourth quarter. Even though it looked like Travis Kelce fell victim to a brutal non-contact leg injury in the first half, he found a way to come back on a bad ankle in the third quarter and caught several passes before scoring another touchdown, his first since turning 34 the other day.

Just when you thought the Vikings had some momentum, Kelce came back to finish the game while Justin Jefferson was out with a hamstring injury. He played much of the game, but the Chiefs held him to just 28 yards.

But the Chiefs rarely make it easy on themselves. After the Vikings made it 27-20, the Chiefs looked like they were going to go for a 4th-and-1 at their own 47 with 9:05 left after the Vikings used their last timeout. But the Chiefs were only trying to draw the Vikings offsides before they punted.

That’s the kind of decision I still don’t get with Andy Reid. You have Mahomes and you still had Kelce playing. Why not just go for it? Chances are you will convert, then you can end up adding more points and get this to a 2-score lead with little time left for the team out of timeouts.

I don’t know if it’s false trust in the defense or just the old hubris of doing things the way they’ve always done them. But this is the kind of situation I’d like to see the Chiefs start going for. Instead, they gave Cousins a shot at tying the game.

Without Jefferson, that was going to be tough. Inexcusably, the Vikings were flagged for delay of game when they wanted to go for a 4th-and-7 at the Kansas City 19. The respect for Mahomes’ ability to run out the clock is crazy but justified, because the Vikings still went for the 4th-and-12 instead of taking a field goal with 4:54 left. The Jaguars did something very similar in Week 2 against the Chiefs. Before these two plays, you have to go back to 1999 to find the last time an offense, down 7-8 points with more than 4:00 left in the fourth quarter and the ball inside the opponent 30, went for a 4th-and-10 or longer instead of kicking a field goal.

The Chiefs brought pressure, Cousins just threw one up for the end zone, and the flag for DPI was rightfully picked up as the pass wasn’t even close. There could have been a penalty on the Chiefs for their player taking his helmet off after the play. T.J. Watt was called for that in Pittsburgh in the early slate. We’ve seen this get called and we’ve seen it go uncalled. Refs are not consistent on it. I’m not a big fan of the rule period, so I don’t mind that one being let go. It still happened after possession changed, so it would have remained Kansas City’s ball.

But this time, Mahomes did not bleed the clock. He thought he could pass into the flat for a game-clinching first down, but the Vikings were there to stop it short. The Chiefs punted and Cousins had to drive 81 yards in 1:07. Crazier things have happened. It looked like Cousins had a decent shot at a Hail Mary from just 38 yards away on the final snap, but the Chiefs put that to rest right away with a game-ending sack of Cousins.

The Chiefs are 4-1 and seem to have avoided the worst with Kelce’s injury. It is a quick turnaround to play Denver on Thursday night, but you know this team will have something cooked up. But it gets scary when you see Kelce having injury issues and Mahomes has narrowly avoided some serious hits too. The repeat dream is over if this connection is not available to the Chiefs.

Bills vs. Jaguars: Josh Allen Loses Again to His Namesake

Did it help that Jacksonville stayed in London after winning there (albeit at a different venue) last week? Did it hurt that Buffalo did not arrive until Friday? I don’t know what impact, if any, it had but it probably had something to do with the Jaguars jumping out to an 11-0 lead against a team that was so dominant since Week 2.

The London travel difference had me worried about this game for Buffalo. I also remembered the weird 9-6 loss the Bills had to Urban Meyer’s Jags in 2021 when Josh Allen the quarterback imploded against Josh Allen the defender.

But this was a weird Buffalo loss as it was not the turnovers that did in the Bills this time. Their only turnovers came in the fourth quarter, and while Allen threw an interception in an 11-7 game, it was on a 3-and-15 and served as a good punt. The only other turnover was an ill-advised lateral in the final seconds when the Bills needed a miracle anyway.

The Bills punted 6 times before the fourth quarter, something the Bills have done only one other time since 2020 (7 early punts vs. 2021 Jets). That’s impressive for the Jacksonville defense, but oddly enough, I was a little more impressed with the way the Bills kept Jacksonville from scoring despite so many defensive injuries. They lost Matt Milano and Von Miller in this game among others. But twice they were able to force Trevor Lawrence into a fumble deep in scoring territory.

Unfortunately, the injuries did catch up to Buffalo as Travis Etienne burned them late in the game on his way to 136 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. The Bills only rushed for 29 yards on 14 carries, and that even includes Allen’s contributions as a runner (4 carries for 14 yards and a touchdown). Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs both hit 100 yards, but the Bills were stuck on 7 points for too long and caught playing catchup to a Jacksonville team that showed up to play.

The penalties were also out of control in the fourth quarter on both sides. One Buffalo touchdown drive saw 6 plays get flagged for something. But the most egregious one was a roughing the passer to wipe out a sack of Allen on a 3rd-and-1 that would have turned it into 4th-and-12 and likely a field goal attempt late in an 18-7 game. That whole play was screwed up because there was so much uncertainty whether it was 3rd-and-1 or 1st-and-10 for Buffalo. The Bills caught a break with that call, then wasted it after Etienne broke loose for a 35-yard touchdown to regain a 12-point lead.

The Bills did a great job driving 75 yards in 45 seconds for another touchdown, but the onside kick is impossible these days. By the time they got it back in a 25-20 game, they had to go 94 yards in 22 seconds. That’s when Diggs tried a lateral that was fumbled to end the game.

The Bills having a London letdown after last week’s huge win is not that surprising, especially when you consider the defensive injuries. Is it the kind of loss that adds to this team being untrustworthy in big games? Well, it was still a hell of a lot better than what the Cowboys did on Sunday night. I’m not that worried about Buffalo yet, but the injuries definitely need to chill out.

Bengals at Cardinals: Ja’Marr Chase to the Rescue

The Cardinals were my upset pick for Week 5, but I haven’t been able to get a Cincinnati game right since Week 2 when I said the Ravens would beat them.

Going to Arizona, a team playing better than expected, without Tee Higgins (ribs) did not seem like an ideal spot for Joe Burrow to get right, but he definitely knew where Ja’Marr Chase was all game. Chase had no touchdowns coming into the game but scored 3 here on his way to 15 catches and 192 yards. That’s a career game for most wide receivers, but it’s not even the best Chase game we have ever seen.

It was just the best one in 2023 as the league’s worst offense finally put things together to have a successful outing. But the game really turned on Arizona when the defense got a goal-line stand only for Joshua Dobbs to force a pick-six from his own end zone in the second quarter.

The Bengals took the lead and never looked back. Arizona had no turnovers in the last 3 games, but Dobbs had 3 turnovers in this game. The Cardinals also lost James Conner to an injury, which is not uncommon for him.

There were some bright moments for Arizona after a pick and some sacks of Burrow, but overall, the team was outclassed by a Cincinnati team that has not been playing well this year at all.

Does this mean the Bengals are “back” this year? I have no idea. I thought things were going to be better after the Los Angeles win, but then they shit the bed in Tennessee the next week. But they get the Seahawks next week, and both Cincinnati wins are against the NFC West so far. Maybe an unfamiliar opponent will help in addition to probably getting Higgins back.

Eagles at Rams: We’re Going with Brotherly Shove Now?

With the growing coverage and controversy around the “Tush Push” or “Brotherly Shove” quarterback sneak, this game was a great example of just how much better the Eagles are at it than everyone else. That strong offensive line combined with the strength of Jalen Hurts just makes it look unstoppable even when the defense knows exactly what is coming. Hurts just pushes through until he gets the first down.

He did it again in epic fashion before halftime with the Eagles down and only 2 seconds left on the clock. But when this team is at the 1-yard line, Hurts scoring is almost automatic. They called their sneak and he scored again to take a 17-14 lead after a good half saw Dallas Goedert and Cooper Kupp dominating for their respective teams. Kupp made his season debut and did not miss a beat even with sharing the ball with rookie sensation Puka Nacua.

But to the detriment of my best parlay on Sunday, the second half was a flop for scoring:

  • Stafford was hit for an intentional grounding at midfield on third down.
  • Hurts was intercepted in the end zone on a brilliant catch by Ahkello Witherspoon.
  • A screen to Puka on a third down at the Philadelphia 43 was blown up and nearly a lost fumble for the Rams.
  • The Eagles settled for a 26-yard field goal to take a 20-14 lead with 12:29 left to play.
  • Stafford missed a deep third down to Kupp, then the Eagles burned more clock for another field goal with 4:06 left.
  • Haason Reddick sacked Stafford on back-to-back plays, including a 4th-and-12 with 2:46 left.
  • Hurts converted another 3rd-and-1 with the sneak, but the Eagles were eventually stopped on a 4th-down run with only 61 seconds left.
  • The Rams were in no hurry to seriously try scoring as the clock expired with the ball inside their 40.

Just a brutal way to lose out on what looked like an easy over, but each team only had 8 possessions, and the Rams failed to score on their last 5. The Eagles had two field goal drives that consumed over 8:00 each. It was another efficient performance for a team that is rounding into shape, but they will have to play even better than this to knock off the 49ers in the NFC this year.

Titans at Colts: AFC South Dark Horse?

This one shocked me as I did not expect Zack Moss (195 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns) to be the dominant back in a game with Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor. In fact, I didn’t expect the Colts to run well at all against the Titans, who were allowing a league-low 2.9 yards per carry coming into Week 5.

That is what the Titans do going back some time now. They shut down the run and force you to throw, which is not something the Colts are cut out for like the old days. But they were proving that all wrong in this game as they ran the ball at will on the Titans with Moss getting most of the work as they eased Taylor back, and the passing game was solid with Gardner Minshew replacing an injured (again) Anthony Richardson. The Colts were 20-of-26 passing for 253 yards and only 1 sack. The Colts scored 23 points on 7 drives and gained at least 40 yards on their last 6 drives.

But the other side of the coin was the Tennessee running game, which stalled with 20 handoffs for 77 yards. Henry only had 43 yards and was stuffed on the play of the game on a 4th-and-1 at the Colts 5 in a 20-16 game with 8:03 left.

The Colts had an epic 14-play drive for a field goal that only left Ryan Tannehill a minute to drive 75 yards in a 23-16 game. Things were not going well, and he was intercepted with 10 seconds left to secure the win for the Colts, who are now 3-2.

This will go down as another low-scoring road loss for the Titans, but the game was more offensive than it looks with the tiny number of possessions for each team. But that just magnifies the 4th-down stop the Colts had on Henry.

With a game at Jacksonville next week where the Colts haven’t won since 2014, the team is in an odd position where they might be better with Minshew at quarterback than the rookie. But more than anything, they might have some real durability concerns with Richardson, who has already failed to finish 3 games due to 3 different injuries. He also missed a full game in Week 3 after a concussion. Maybe he can shake off these early injuries like Matthew Stafford did in Detroit years ago, but for now, Richardson is not someone the team can count on to stay in the game.

After what happened to end the careers of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck in Indy, this is definitely a worrisome look. But Minshew is one of the best backups in the league, and the Colts already gave the Jaguars a tough game in Week 1.

Jets at Broncos: Hackett Gets the Last Laugh

Oh, did we learn some things in this one.

  • Sean Payton can talk the talk, but he can’t walk the walk anymore, going 0-3 at home to Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Howell, and Zach Wilson.
  • Zach Wilson is not as good as Justin Fields at exploiting a terrible defense, but he played a serviceable game until a bad luck interception stuck to a defender late in the game.
  • Nathaniel Hackett and the Jets finally unleashed Breece Hall and he answered with 194 scrimmage yards and a touchdown.
  • Russell Wilson fell in love with scrambling and passes to running backs against this tough defense, but when push came to shove late in the game, he couldn’t find his wideouts to get a game-tying field goal.
  • Denver’s season is over at 1-4 with both Kansas City games coming up and a game with Buffalo soon.

Both offenses thrived on their running backs in this one. While not getting shredded by Zach Wilson was a triumph for the Denver defense, it was still a lousy game overall as the Jets piled up over 400 yards after driving for at least 40 yards on 7 straight drives to end the game.

But a late interception in field goal range gave Russell Wilson and the Broncos a chance from their own 3 in a 24-21 game with 2:14 left. Long field but plenty of time. Wilson did get the offense out to the 41, but with the Jets getting closer and closer in the fourth quarter, they finally got Wilson with a forced fumble that was picked up and returned for a touchdown to ice the game.

Should the Jets have gone down and kneeled it out to win 24-21? Probably, but you can tell it was personal for this team to stick it to Payton and the Broncos in their own building. It’s not like Wilson was going to put up 10 points in 29 seconds.

The better team won, and with the way Denver approached this must-win game, perhaps it is the better coaching staff too in New York. Hackett was unquestionably awful as Denver’s coach last year, but Payton is doing a shockingly bad job that could go down as being even worse.

I never would have guessed things would start this poorly for Denver this year. Fortunately, losing at home to Hackett and the Jets (without Aaron Rodgers) is probably the worst it can get this year. That’s saying something for a team that already had a game where it allowed 70 points and 726 yards.

Giants at Dolphins: Run Those Bums Off the Field

Look, the Giants are just trash. This team has played like shit for 9-of-10 halves this season, only coming back against Arizona’s nameless defense when that team was still formulating its tanking plan for Caleb Williams.

The Giants finally scored a first-half touchdown in this game, and of course it was on a 102-yard pick-six as Tua Tagovailoa got greedy before the half. A second interception in the third quarter also set up the Giants for a 4-yard field goal drive, so 10 of those points are directly on the Miami passing game.

But nothing says trash Giants team like a 10-play, 18-yard field goal drive in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins were able to cover the 13-point spread without playing anywhere near their A game.

But with these ridiculous speed demons on the field, how could they not beat the Giants by a couple of touchdowns? Miami had plays that gained 64, 69, and 76 yards, and it was basically all about the speed of Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane. The latter now has a run of at least 55 yards in three straight games. He’s already a third of the way to Derrick Henry’s career total of 55-yard runs (9) and a quarter of the way to Chris Johnson (12). It’s Week 5 of his rookie year. His speed is just absurd to watch, and it is almost unfair that the league let Miami draft him in the third round.

Thanks to the explosive play of Achane and Hill, the Dolphins averaged 9.7 yards per play, a huge number we rarely see. Miami is the first team in NFL history to have two games in a season where the offense averaged at least 9.5 yards per play. Only five other offenses in the Super Bowl era had multiple games in a season averaging over 9.0 yards per play. Oddly enough, the 2018 Dolphins with a whole different cast was one of those teams.

Miami has averaged 8.31 yards per play over the last 5 games. The only team in NFL history with a better 5-game span was the 2000 Rams (8.51).

It looks like the 2000 Rams are the team these Dolphins are chasing in the record books. Miami’s 2,568 yards of offense are the most ever through 5 games in a season in NFL history, surpassing the 2000 Rams (2,527 yards).

But if you look at the 135 teams to have at least 2,000 yards of offense through 5 games, only 8 of those teams (5.9%) won the championship that season, and almost half of them only had to win one playoff game to do it back in the day (1941 Bears, 1951 Rams, 1958 Colts, 1988 49ers, 1995 Cowboys, 2009 Saints, 2019 Chiefs, and 2021 Rams).

For Miami’s sake, you want to be more like the 1999 or 2001 Rams than the 2000 team that had a horrible defense, turned the ball over too much, and lost a wild card game to the Saints. But the defense at least dominated the Giants, Daniel Jones left with a neck injury, and the Dolphins can beat up on a winless Carolina team next week to get to 5-1.

We’ll be history watching with this offense all season, but historically, this does not yet have the makings of a championship team. But that speed is sure fun to watch dominate the bad teams.

Texans at Falcons: Promising Day for Desmond Ridder

If you wanted a game with solid quarterback play and multiple lead changes, this is one of your only choices the last couple of weeks. Neither team was able to break 2.8 yards per carry, but their quarterbacks avoided turnovers. In fact, C.J. Stroud was able to set the record for most pass attempts without an interception to begin his career.

Stroud also did a more than respectable job in the first game-winning drive attempt of his career. Down 18-12, he engineered a 75-yard touchdown drive, finding tight end Dalton Schultz for an 18-yard score with 1:49 left to take a 19-18 lead.

The only knock you can make is that the Texans went 3-and-out on their previous drive, which led to an Atlanta field goal and 18-12 deficit. By only going up a point with so much time left, it left the Falcons some low-hanging fruit to simply get into range for a game-winning field goal with no time left.

That’s exactly what they did as Desmond Ridder had the best game of his NFL career with 329 passing yards on 28-of-37 passing. He also ran for a touchdown earlier in the game. Ridder ended up leading two go-ahead drives in this one, throwing a touchdown pass to Bijan Robinson early in the quarter and then he was 5-for-5 for 44 yards on the game-winning field goal drive. Younghoe Koo was good from 37 yards away with no time left in the 21-19 win.

It was a very good day for Ridder when you consider the running game was held to 86 yards on 32 carries. He finally got Kyle Pitts involved with a game-high 87 yards on 7-of-11 passing. He finished strong even after his teammates fumbled on back-to-back drives in the third quarter. The Falcons can win with a quarterback like this, but Ridder will have to show he can do it more often.

Saints at Patriots: Belichick Can’t Tell a Single Soul That His Soul’s Gone

I said this would be the worst New England team in the 21st century. But 34-0 at home to Derek Carr a week after losing 38-3 in Dallas? The 2023 Patriots are only the 9th team since the merger to lose back-to-back games by 34 points. The last to do it was the 2019 Dolphins, a team accused of tanking.

I doubt Bill Belichick is actively tanking when he’s trying to get the all-time wins record without getting fired by Robert Kraft first, but this is a mess. Mac Jones had 3 more turnovers, including another awful pick-six as the first score of the game, a 25-yard return by Tyrann Mathieu. The second interception was not his fault at all, but there are a lot of problems with this team now and Belichick is out of solutions.

For one, you need talent, and his roster might be battling Arizona for the worst talent in the league. When you take Matt Judon and Christian Gonzalez away from the defense, that leaves a very bland lineup that cannot provide the necessary carnage to give this weak offense a shot.

This game was over at halftime. The Patriots are the only team since 1991 to get shut out at home while going 1-for-14 (or worse) on third down. The 8 first downs are the fewest by the Patriots since Belichick took the job in 2000.

Can it get lower than this? The Patriots (1-4) go back to Las Vegas next week where Belichick can fall to 0-3 against Josh McDaniels in his career.

Panthers at Lions: By Air and Ground

The 2022 Lions had a respectable season, but one of the biggest eyesores was that 37-23 loss in Carolina where they were outrushed 320-45. On Sunday, the Lions got some revenge in a complete team effort, 42-24 win despite not having Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs available on offense.

But the Lions showed that their other draft picks and additions are more than enough to beat a bad Carolina team that has still never had a fourth-quarter lead this season. David Montgomery basically gave the middle finger to the Gibbs truthers with a 42-yard touchdown run on his first carry as he finished with another 109 yards on the ground. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta scored two touchdowns and looks great.

The defense held Carolina to 99 rushing yards and picked off Bryce Young twice, including an incredible one-handed snag in the backfield by Aidan Hutchinson. I’m impressed with a defensive lineman who now has 4 interceptions in his first 22 games. Even J.J. Watt only had 3 of those in his career, and that includes his memorable pick-6 off Andy Dalton in a playoff game his rookie year (2011 AFC wild card).

The Lions (4-1) are doing very well and will get a decent road test in Tampa Bay next week. It is too early to talk 0-17 for the Panthers (0-5), but with a trip to Miami next, you can count on 0-6 going into the bye. But they’ll have shots against the Texans/Colts/Bears out of that to get their first win.

Next week: Quick turnaround for the wounded Chiefs as they look to make it 16 in a row against Denver on Thursday night. You will not get me up early to watch Titans-Ravens overseas. Seahawks-Bengals got much more interesting with the Cincinnati one, and I have no idea which team to trust in that one. I’m sure Nick Bosa will be in rare form against Deshaun Watson, and with the Eagles facing the Jets, I think there’s a solid shot we have two 6-0 teams in a week.  

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 2

Now that’s more like it. After a low-scoring Week 1, the NFL got back on track with a Week 2 slate (MNF doubleheader pending) that featured:

  • 10 games with a comeback opportunity
  • 10 300-yard passers (5 in Week 1)
  • 8 games where both teams scored more than 21 points (1 in Week 1)
  • 4 double-digit comeback wins (half in the 4th quarter alone)
  • 2 overtime games
  • 1 Hail Mary touchdown that will quickly be forgotten since it ended with a loss

Also, in Week 1, half the quarterbacks (16/32) had a QBR under 45.0 at ESPN. In Week 2, only 3-of-28 quarterbacks (10.7%) had a QBR under 45.0. I don’t have an updated database of this stat, but I have to imagine 3-of-28 would make this one of the best statistical weeks for quarterback play since 2006. At the very least, a week where not many people flat out sucked.

So far, it is looking like 2023 will be a very competitive season as teams like the Rams, Colts, and Cardinals may not be the epic dumpster fires they could have been. Even the Giants went from being outscored 60-0 to scoring 31 points in a win in one half today.

In the flash in the pan NFC, the Falcons, Buccaneers, and Commanders are all 2-0, though I’m not sure any of them has real staying power this year. Five of their 6 wins have been by a game-winning drive and the one that wasn’t needed a game-clinching pick-6 in a 3-point game today. The schedule will continue helping those NFC South teams, but I’m not ready to say any of these teams have “arrived” as surprises just yet.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Ravens at Bengals: When the Quarterback Health Pendulum Swings the Other Way

I haven’t been shy all summer about making the Ravens my pick to win the AFC North, and ultimately, they were my No. 1 seed and Super Bowl pick for the 2023 season. They haven’t let me down yet, and despite the injury concerns starting to mount, they still have health at the position that matters the most: quarterback.

It cannot be ignored that the Ravens were leading the AFC North in December in 2021 and 2022 on the day where Lamar Jackson suffered an injury that would end his seasons. Cincinnati then ended up winning the division both years, and it won a wild card game against backup Tyler Huntley, who fumbled on a quarterback sneak for the deciding touchdown.

I liked Baltimore all summer, and I liked them in this game because the quarterback health pendulum in the AFC North is finally swinging their way. Joe Burrow had a calf injury in July and missed a lot of camp and practice time. He simply may not be healthy enough to be starting games, but he is anyway. Last week, he threw for 82 yards on 31 attempts.

This time, he was 8-of-11 for 35 yards at halftime as the Ravens played ball control well and led 13-10 at halftime. Cincinnati’s only touchdown was an 81-yard punt return touchdown. The offense simply didn’t show up yet for the Bengals this season.

But after a red zone interception to start the second half, things did improve for the Bengals. They engineered two long touchdown drives on their final 3 possessions, though there was a bad 3-and-out in between.

Meanwhile, Jackson showed his value in what I would call one of the best games of his career. He only threw for 237 yards and rushed for 54 yards, but his game management was excellent. The Ravens averaged 3.0 points per drive, a league-leading number most years, and that’s even with a missed field goal and a clock-killing drive to close out the win.

Jackson helped the Ravens overcome a 2nd-and-23 in the fourth quarter on a drive that ended with a touchdown to Nelson Agholor to take a 27-17 lead. Then after the Bengals pulled to within 27-24 with 3:28 left, Jackson did his job and put the game away. He scrambled for 12 yards on a big third-and-3. Burrow, who finished with under 225 yards for the fourth time since 2022 against Baltimore, never got the ball back in a one-score game in the fourth quarter.

Baltimore has blown too many games like this in recent years, but not on Sunday. Now they are 2-0 with a road win over the 0-2 Bengals, who feel in worse shape than they did a year ago when they lost two tight games with the Steelers and Cowboys before going on a run. Burrow is also saying he tweaked the calf injury too. We’ll see how he looks on Monday night against Aaron Donald and the Rams in a Super Bowl rematch.

Clearly, it’s not how you start but how you finish in this league. But as long as Jackson remains healthy and plays more from the pocket as he did in this game, the Ravens are the team to beat in the AFC North this year.

Chiefs at Jaguars: Does Kansas City Have… a Defense?

Given what this game could have been and what it was, this was my dud of the week. I thought Jacksonville would make it more interesting after getting swept last year. Patrick Mahomes wasn’t on a high-ankle sprain, Travis Kelce was back, and Calvin Ridley was here to make a difference for Jacksonville at home.

Yet, the Chiefs had 12 penalties for 94 yards, turned it over 3 times, and they still won 17-9.

Wait, 26 points? It’s tied for the second-lowest scoring game involving Mahomes in his career. The lowest was 13-7 against the 2021 Packers in Jordan Love’s first start. The total was 51 points, so the 25 points under the total was the 5th-largest under performance in a game with Mahomes.

Mahomes targeted 11 different receivers in the first half, which felt like overkill for a team that searches for reliable targets. Kelce barely looked like a factor in his return until he caught a touchdown in the second half.

But had the Chiefs stopped nuking drives with penalties and taken better care of the ball – add another muffed punt, fumbled completion, and Mahomes was picked on an overthrown deep ball – this would have been a rout.

But that’s why they call it gambling. Just this week I wrote on another site about trusting your gut and doubling down on picks from week to week in this league. I then completely ignored myself.

In Week 1, I faded Calvin Ridley in his first game since 2021 in favor of Christian Kirk, the reliable target for Trevor Lawrence he built great chemistry with. Of course, Kirk had 1 catch for 9 yards while Ridley torched the Colts for 8/101/1.

Instead of doubling down on Kirk, I switched to Ridley for my week’s biggest parlay, thinking he would make a difference and have 60+ yards for the Jaguars in this game (O/U 72.5). Of course, Kirk caught 11-of-14 for 110 yards while Lawrence was 2-of-8 for 36 yards to Ridley. They just could not finish plays together, and that ended up being my only losing leg on a parlay I didn’t hedge. FML.

Lawerence was only 22-of-41 for 216 yards in what I would say was his worst passing game against the Chiefs yet. Chris Jones had 1.5 sacks in his return, including a big stop on a fourth down early in the game. That did not help Jacksonville’s efforts, but compared to 2022, they went backwards on offense in this rivalry, and it does not look like they are ready to step up to the big boys in 2023. This game was only moderately close because of Kansas City’s self-inflicted mistakes with all the false starts and turnovers.

Also, just like last week against Detroit, it is wild what teams do against Mahomes out of fear. The Jaguars were down 17-9 and instead of kicking a 34-yard field goal with 4:18 left (time plus 4 clock stoppages in hand), they went for a 4th-and-12 at the Kansas City 16. Not a 4th-and-2 but a 4th-and-12. I’m not sure about that one, especially when you are down 8 and would need another possession and score anyway to win this game. If you don’t think you can stop Mahomes again, then you’re losing the game regardless. I probably kick the field goal there, especially since Lawrence’s accuracy was poor.

Sure enough, Lawrence threw incomplete to Ridley (FML) and that was that. Mahomes added to his quickly growing legacy of being the best quarterback ever in the 4-minute offense. He scrambled 14 yards for a first down, then on a pivotal 3rd-and-6 with 2:03 left, he improvised and found Skyy Moore with a deep ball for a 54-yard gain to essentially ice this one. The running game picked up one more first down to make sure it ended 17-9.

The Chiefs go into the history books again, not losing any of their last 35 games by more than 4 points.

But with games against the Bears and Jets up next, the storyline of the Chiefs having an elite defense in 2023 should continue into October. We’ll see if that holds true when the tougher tests come up later in the season. But if you get the offense back to firing on all cylinders and actually sustain a great defensive performance, then I’m not sure anyone is beating this team this year.

They are playing C+ caliber games and were a Kadarius Toney drop away from being 2-0 against a pair of division favorites.

Dolphins at Patriots: Good Enough to Lose Close – Part 2

Same headline as last week for New England, which is 0-2 for the first time since 2001 after losing to another contender at home in a one-score game. But in many ways, it was an old-school Patriots game:

  • Bill Belichick’s defense helped contain the hottest passing duo from last week, holding Tua Tagovailoa to 249 yards and only 40 for Tyreek Hill.
  • He did this at the expense of allowing Miami to get more from its ground game, which would have been fine if not for a 43-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter by Raheem Mostert.
  • The Patriots blocked a 49-yard field goal in the third quarter.
  • Rookie corner Christian Gonzalez came away with an interception in the fourth quarter when the Dolphins were at midfield with a first down.
  • An aborted snap by Miami killed a 3rd-and-1, then the Dolphins missed a 55-yard field goal that would have given them a 10-point lead with 2:14 left to all but ice it, leaving the door open for the Patriots.

But instead of a touchdown drive, the Patriots still had to put Mac Jones on the field with a bunch of No. 2 and No. 3 wideouts (at best). Bradley Chubb made his presence felt with a huge sack that set up a 2nd-and-18, which the Patriots never recovered from.

On a 4th-and-4 at Miami’s 33, Jones had to hurry a pass under pressure, and it was caught well short of the sticks. The Patriots sunk their 2022 season with an ill-advised lateral in Vegas, but this time the lateral was necessary. It almost worked too, but the offensive lineman was reviewed to come up inches short of the first down. Game over.

Just like last week against Philadelphia, the Patriots were inches away from converting a fourth down on a potential game-winning touchdown drive. I think it is possible the Patriots would have gone for 2 and the win here, but we’ll never know as they came up short again.

It wasn’t the kind of performance that should be vaulting the Dolphins up the lists of power rankings, Super Bowl odds, or Tagovailoa for MVP. But it was good enough for a win against a team that used to be harder to beat. Alas, Tagovailoa is the first quarterback to win 5 straight games against Belichick. He hasn’t played the best against his defense by any means, but this is where the AFC East is now in the 2020s.

Chargers at Titans: Nothing Has Changed for the Chargers

Chargers coach Brandon Staley wanted no part of hearing about the Jacksonville playoff loss after the Chargers fell to 0-2 with another blown lead.

Technically, Staley is right that a January playoff loss is not the reason the Chargers lost these last two games in the 2023 season. However, I don’t think he gets to avoid this narrative as his team continues to blow games it seemed to have in hand, and his defense continues to suck with the game on the line.

I would pose these questions to Staley.

Why is it Year 3 and every game still comes down to you relying on Justin Herbert to perform miracles and make sure the defense doesn’t have to come back on the field to blow it?

You say your roster has finishers, yet why aren’t any of them on defense, your specialty? In Herbert’s 5 game-winning drives last season, this is how much time was left on the clock so that your defense couldn’t find a way to blow it:

  • 4 seconds vs. Titans
  • 15 seconds vs. Cardinals
  • 0 seconds vs. Falcons
  • Walk-off in overtime vs. Broncos
  • 9:29 vs. Browns, who later missed a game-winning 53-yard field goal with 0:11 left

Congrats on the missed field goal. Your defense hasn’t produced a legitimate stop to preserve a close win since forcing the Steelers into a 4th-and-32 in 2021. By the way, that was the game you blew a 27-10 lead in the fourth quarter of, and you again relied on a Herbert touchdown pass to regain the lead.

The Titans couldn’t throw last week in New Orleans, and yet Ryan Tannehill almost couldn’t miss in Week 2 against this defense. He was 20-of-24 for 246 yards with his below-average receivers. The only issue was taking 5 sacks as the revamped line was missing rookie first-round pick Peter Skoronski.

But once again, the Chargers were in a dogfight after leading 11-0 early. Herbert’s second touchdown pass to Keenan Allen gave the Chargers a 21-17 lead with 14:38 left. On the next drive, the Chargers ran the ball on 3rd-and-4 and punted on a 4th-and-2 at their own 42. Weren’t you the 4th-down guy for a hot minute in 2021?

Later, the Titans scored a go-ahead touchdown, which was answered by a game-tying field goal to force overtime by the Chargers. Short throws and a big 3rd-down sack by Harold Landry kept the Chargers out of the end zone from the game-winning touchdown.

In overtime, Herbert threw three straight incompletions as the team missed Austin Ekeler against a Tennessee defense that loves shutting the run down. The Titans had no issues moving into range for Nick Folk to hit a 41-yard field goal to win the game 27-24.

The Chargers have lost 4 straight games, and this was actually the first time they allowed fewer than 30 points during this stretch.

At this rate, Staley will soon learn what a finisher looks like on the Chargers. It will be the person who takes him to an empty room to see the boss.

Jets at Cowboys: Back to Reality

There was a lot of wishful thinking that the Jets could salvage this season after losing Aaron Rodgers and upsetting the Bills on Monday night. But either the Cowboys are too good, or the Jets are going to be awful, because this 30-10 rout was tough to watch. The Jets basically made one play on offense, a 68-yard touchdown pass to Garrett Wilson. Otherwise, Zach Wilson was 11-of-26 for 102 yards and 3 picks.

At least the picks didn’t happen until it was 27-10 in the fourth quarter, but the Jets failed this game in the sense that they couldn’t even be competitive as the “run the ball and play great defense” team they need to be with Wilson at quarterback.

Wilson ended up accounting for 36 of the team’s 64 rushing yards. You would have thought Breece Hall could have been leaned on, but he had 4 carries for 9 yards. The fuck is that?

Defensively, the Jets forced 0 turnovers, allowed 9-of-18 on third down, and Dak Prescott (31-of-38 for 255 yards) generally did what he wanted to. CeeDee Lamb caught 11-of-13 targets for 143 yards, so it’s not like you can’t throw on these guys like they’re the 2009 Jets or something.

With 15 more Jets games to go, it’s really a shame what happened to Rodgers. This team’s brutal early schedule was going to be tough with him, but there are going to be more ugly days ahead for this team.

Dallas, my Super Bowl pick in the NFC, is looking great at 70-10 on the scoreboard, only the 7th team since 1970 to be at least plus-60 through two games. But it will be nice to see them play a real team who can hit back instead of these New York punching bags.

Oh shit, they get Arizona next too. At least they face the 49ers in Week 5. With the Eagles not impressive so far, the Cowboys and 49ers may be the best in the NFC this season.

49ers at Rams: Shanahan Continues Mastery of McVay

The 49ers have the most talented offense in the NFL and look like the most complete team so far. But after this 30-23 win, I think it’s safe to say the No. 1 thought on the minds of football fans is can Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua co-exist on the Rams and build the greatest receiving duo of all time? All these guys do is get open and catch the ball, so imagine if there were two of them.

Nacua did it again, going over 10 catches and 100 yards for the second week in a row, the only player to ever start his career like that. His 15 catches are a single-game rookie record. He also has 25 catches in his first two games, shattering Earl Cooper’s record of 19 for the 1980 49ers. Before you credit Joe Montana for running Bill Walsh’s innovative West Coast Offense for that record, it was actually Steve DeBerg at quarterback in those games. Incredibly, Cooper was just a fullback (later converted to tight end) and only caught 213 passes in 93 games in his career.

But this surprising rise of a 5th-round rookie in Nacua, who only caught 107 passes in 4 years of college football at Washington and BYU, can only be surpassed by the continued success of Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant.

Purdy is the only quarterback in NFL history to go 10-0 in the first 10 games where he threw at least 20 passes. He did not have a touchdown pass in this one, but he led the offense effectively again, and he ran for a big game-tying touchdown before halftime with 1 second left where failure would have meant no points.

The second half looked closer to last year when the 49ers harassed Stafford into sacks and turnovers. They did it again, picking off a pair of passes. The big one came with the Rams down 27-20 with 4:58 left. While the 49ers went three-and-out after that pick, they were already in the red zone and added a field goal for a 30-20 lead.

Eventually, the Rams ended up kicking a 38-yard field goal on the final snap that only accomplished screwing over bettors who had 49ers -7.5 in this 30-23 final.

The Rams did not have a play longer than 20 yards, but you have to hope they can get Kupp and Nacua going together in a few weeks. Stafford’s ability to lock onto a receiver may be unmatched seeing as how the only two 1,900-yard receivers in NFL history (Calvin Johnson and Cooper Kupp) had Stafford at quarterback. It can be a blessing and a curse but imagine if he finds a way to use both receivers together.

Despite the loss, Rams fans should feel better about this season than they did two weeks ago. McVay can still coach, but unfortunately, Shanahan continues getting the best of him.

Commanders at Broncos: Did They Hire the 7-9 Version of Sean Payton?

When the Broncos were up 21-3, I figured I could get away with a single paragraph recap of how Sean Payton got Russell Wilson to hit some deep balls with his new toy (Marvin Mims), and it was an easy first win for Denver. But nope, they blew a league-high 7th fourth-quarter lead since 2022. The 18-point blown lead is the largest in Wilson’s career, and he took 7 sacks and his lost fumble in the second quarter was the turning of the tide in this one.

Washington hung in there with Sam Howell passing for 299 yards against what was supposed to be a strong secondary. The Commanders seemed to get stronger after Logan Thomas took a cheap shot from Kareem Jackson on a fourth-and-goal touchdown before halftime to cut the lead to 21-11. Denver’s offense continued to fall apart from there while the Commanders were able to take the lead for good early in the fourth quarter just as they did a week ago against the Cardinals.

Denver hurt itself with another penalty to wipe out a three-and-out, which Washington turned into a touchdown drive and 35-24 lead. The Wilson-led offense took a while to get a field goal to make it 35-27, then used timeouts to get the ball back with 48 seconds, needing 87 yards.

It will go down as a forgotten one-minute drill that worked out for a touchdown after an incredible tipped Hail Mary was caught from 50 yards out with no time left. But instead of forcing the third overtime game of the day, the Broncos had a specific play design that needed to go to Courtland Sutton, and Wilson’s pass was not caught.

I think you could easily argue defensive pass interference, which would have put the ball at the 1-yard line and a retry. But story of Payton’s career, he couldn’t get an obvious DPI flag in a big spot.

After losing winnable home games to the Raiders and Commanders and going to Miami next, the Broncos could easily be staring at an 0-3 start.

Giants at Cardinals: Was That Tanking?

The battle for New York’s worst football team was in rare form with the Giants doing their best to topple the Jets, who were simultaneously getting crushed by Dallas. Always nice to see something you’ve never seen before, and the Giants did that for those of us born after Alien came out in 1979.

The 2023 Giants were outscored 60-0 through six quarters of action this year. That has only been topped since the 1970 merger by the 1978 Baltimore Colts, who were outscored 86-0 early into Game 3 of their season before they finally got on the board. Worse, the Cardinals were the team doing this to New York. The same Cardinals who are projected to finish with the worst record and No. 1 pick.

But for a half, the Cardinals didn’t seem interested in Caleb Williams. Not when Josh Dobbs was running through defenders on a 23-yard touchdown run. But while we were making fun of the Giants, a switch appeared to be flipped at halftime. These teams came out much differently, and the Giants were able to explode for 31 points in the second half alone to come back and win the game after trailing 28-7 with 9:34 left in the third quarter.

My criticism of Jonathan Gannon’s defense in Philadelphia was that good, smart quarterbacks could tear his scheme apart with quick, short passes. Suddenly, that pass rush doesn’t get there at all, and the coverage is soft as he just wants to avoid the big plays. Well, the Giants immediately came out in the third and hit a 58-yard bomb to rookie speedster Jalin Hyatt. It also hurts when you don’t have players like Haason Reddick, Fletcher Cox, and Darius Slay to make your defense better.

Daniel Jones added a few occasional scrambles, but he basically picked apart the Cardinals on his way to 321 yards passing. He was only sacked 3 times for 9 yards, so the pass rush did not repeat the success it had against Washington last week.

The Cardinals were a missed field goal away from scoring on their first 6 drives, but they were scoreless on the final 4 drives. While James Conner had a big game with over 100 rushing yards, it is hard to say it didn’t look like this team was mailing it in and accepting defeat after the Giants tied it at 28.

With 4:25 left, the Cardinals went 1-yard Conner run, 3-yard Conner run, back-to-back false starts on the same player, and then a failed completion for 5 yards before a three-and-out punt. Weak.

Jones drove the Giants into field goal range from there and Graham Gano was good from 34 yards away with only 19 seconds left. Dobbs’ Hail Mary was knocked away incomplete and the game was over.

Maybe the Cardinals are not going to be 2-15 bad after blowing a pair of 4th-quarter leads to start this season. But when you look at the schedule, they might not win until November now after blowing this opportunity.

But maybe that’s perfectly fine with this franchise.

Seahawks at Lions: Detroit Better Hope This Isn’t Another Tie-Breaker

These teams play fun games. Last year, it was a 48-45 shootout, but this one was better since there were actually lead changes. Seattle led wire-to-wire last year, and that win was the main reason the 9-8 record was good enough for the No. 7 seed ahead of Detroit. The Lions better hope that doesn’t happen again after losing another winnable home game to this team.

The best quarterback duel of Week 2 was naturally Geno Smith vs. Jared Goff as everyone expected. Both were sharp, but Goff’s pick-six, which ended a nearly 400-attempt streak without a pick, looked like it would doom the Lions, putting them in a 31-21 hole with 8:04 left.

But Goff came right back to lead a touchdown drive, then Smith took a horrific sack on a third down back to his own 3, helping to set Goff up at the 50 with 1:44 left. However, Seattle’s defense held after it seemed like Detroit was content with overtime.

The Seahawks won the toss and received first. Just like the team used to do best in the early days of Russell Wilson a decade ago, the offense drove right down the field for a game-winning touchdown to end it without the opponent having a chance. Tyler Lockett’s second touchdown of the day secured the 37-31 win.

In the end, the right team won. The Lions were minus-3 in turnovers and turned it over on downs twice. The Seahawks missed 2 field goals in the second quarter too.

There is some “live by the sword, die by the sword” with coach Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness. Should the Lions have gone for it on a 4th-and-2 at their own 45 while leading 21-17 with 32 seconds left in the third quarter? They failed and the Seahawks only had to go 45 yards for the go-ahead touchdown, which they scored. Traditionally, teams punt there, hope to back them up, and protect the lead. Get the job done on your next offensive possession, and it’s not like points were guaranteed on a first down at midfield if you convert.

But it is what it is. The Lions are 1-1, winning a game they easily could have lost and losing a game they could have easily won. They just better hope they remain the team to beat in the NFC North and don’t have to compete with Seattle for another wild card tie-breaker.

Packers at Falcons: Hamstrung in Atlanta

The Falcons made this a lot harder than it needed to be. The spread swung from Falcons +1.5 to Falcons -3 due to the Packers not having their best running back (Aaron Jones), best wide receiver (Christian Watson), and best offensive lineman (David Bakhtiari). Even though Jordan Love was again very aggressive, he avoided any picks, but he did throw for just 151 yards. His running game only hooked him up with 61 yards, so the loss of Jones was crucial.

Running powered the Atlanta offense again with 211 yards on the ground, though Desmond Ridder did run for 39 yards and a huge touchdown himself on a 4th-down call while the Falcons trailed 24-12 in the fourth quarter. He also threw for 237 yards this week.

The red zone is where Atlanta made life difficult on themselves (2-for-5 on touchdowns). The offense was fortunate the defense held Green Bay without a first down on its 3 possessions in the fourth quarter.

Head coach Arthur Smith also made quite the gambling by going for a 4th-and-1 at the Green Bay 23 with 2:08 left in a 24-22 game. Granted, no one wants to kick a field goal and give an offense nearly 2 full minutes to get a game-winning field goal. But a failure there on a quick snap and there was a fair chance he’d never see the ball again. It almost looked like Smith would go for it again on a fourth down to really ice the game and make the field goal the last snap, but he kicked the 25-yard field goal with 57 seconds left.

Still, that is plenty of time to get into range these days, but Love was unable to get a first down. His pass on 4th down was not bad, but the receiver looked like he trapped it, so it was ruled incomplete. Even if he caught it, an illegal shift penalty would have negated the gain and set up 4th-and-15.

Fun win for Atlanta but being the home team and taking on a team without three of its best players definitely helped this week.

Bears at Buccaneers: Justin Fields Is Not a Serious QB

I find it hard to believe Justin Fields’ average time to throw was 3.03 seconds, the 6th-slowest time in Week 2 (source: Next Gen Stats). Every time I saw a clip of him today he was holding the ball forever and taking awful sacks. He ended up taking 6 sacks and the running game was held in check again with only 67 yards, including just 3 from Fields despite his short touchdown run.

While D.J. Moore had 104 yards and Chase Claypool showed up to catch a touchdown, it was still a poor offensive performance. The Buccaneers won out in yards 437-236, but it was still only a 20-17 game with 2:24 left.

Like last year, Fields only needed a field goal and couldn’t get in position. He tried to throw a screen pass to his running back and Shaq Barrett made a great play to snatch the ball for a pick-six.

You can certainly give credit to the defender for blowing this up, but that looked like a play that was going to gain no positive yards anyway. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield efficiently threw for 317 yards with 171 of them going to Mike Evans. The Buccaneers have scored 20 points in back-to-back games, something they did once all last season with the King of Kings at quarterback.

It was my prediction that Mayfield would outplay Tom Brady this year, but the Bucs would have a worse record because of what will happen in close games without the LOAT. That could still happen. Plus, beating up on the Bears and Vikings (two awful defenses in 2022) is not the best argument for this being anything but fool’s gold. But Mayfield is making this work so far.

Raiders at Bills: Buffalo Can Take a Deep Breath

Bills fans may have been nervous after the Raiders marched right down the field for a touchdown to start the game. But that was the highlight of the day for Vegas. Josh Allen played a very safe, controlled, and efficient game (31-of-37 for 274 yards and 3 TD) and spread the ball around well. The run defense held Josh Jacobs to -2 yards on 9 carries. They intercepted Jimmy Garoppolo twice, including a play where Matt Milano just flat out stole the ball from Jacobs. James Cook ran for 123 yards even if he padded a bit with a 36-yard run while the Bills led 38-10 at the two-minute warning.

But it was an all-around dominant team performance from the Bills, who might still be the biggest threat to the Chiefs in getting back to the Super Bowl. We’ll see how Baltimore and Cincinnati shake out.

Colts at Texans: Steichen’s First Win

When the Colts hired Shane Steichen and drafted Anthony Richardson, the logical connection was always that he could develop him on the Jalen Hurts curve that he did in Philadelphia. But maybe something a lot of us forgot here is that this means Richardson could be an effective goal-line rusher and score a lot of touchdowns like Hurts did last year on his way to a record.

I noticed it right away in Week 1 when it looked like Richardson was going to score 2 rushing touchdowns against Jacksonville before he left the game injured on the last drive. That is why Richardson to score twice (+1400 at FanDuel) was one of my favorite props this week. I just didn’t expect him to score on runs of 18 and 15 yards in the game’s first 5:47.

I also didn’t think he’d leave the game with a concussion suffered on the second one.

It is not a good sign at all that Richardson was unable to finish either of his first two games, but for what little we have seen, the potential is exciting. Even Hurts only has 3-of-33 career touchdown runs from longer than 10 yards out, so Richardson exploding like that looked closer to a young Vince Young (2006) or Lamar Jackson (2019). Just hope he can stay healthy, but Gardner Minshew was a heck of an addition as someone who can step in and sling it in a familiar system. Minshew only entered the game at 12:45 in the second quarter and still passed for 114 yards in the quarter, which is almost as many as Joe Burrow had for Cincinnati in his first six quarters this year (117).

As for Houston, it was a tough day with most of the starting offensive line out and no help from the running game from C.J. Stroud, who took 6 sacks and had to play from a double-digit deficit almost the entire game. But even in that suboptimal situation, he was 30-of-47 for 384 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no picks. He did lose one of two fumbles, similar to last week. But it is a good learning experience for the rookie.

After not getting a win over Houston last year, the Colts should feel more optimistic about the Steichen era after Sunday’s 31-20 win. But for a fanbase that has seen health problems end the tenures of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, it is a worrisome start for Richardson in that area.

Next week: Not looking great.

NFL Week 2 Predictions: Playoff Revenge Edition

The NFL’s Week 2 schedule already features some heavyweight matchups, but are these teams playing well enough for these games to be as good as possible? We are already seeing major injury concerns for several teams, which is unfortunate at such an early point in the year.

But one of my favorite stats this week is that the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals are all 0-1 after entering the season as the Super Bowl favorites in their conference. That has not happened since the NFC did it in 1982, and none of the Cowboys, 49ers, or Rams made the Super Bowl (won by Washington). Of course, it ended up being a 9-game strike season after the players went on strike following Week 2, so maybe that’s not the best comparison to make this year. All I know is the Chiefs (drops) and Bills (turnovers) largely had self-inflicted losses against teams that had serious playoff aspirations. The Bengals did their annual disappearing act against the Browns, but 24-3 and Joe Burrow passing for 82 yards feels like something potentially different this time. We’ll see if the Ravens, my Super Bowl pick, can capitalize this week.

Bengals-Ravens is just one of the big matchups this week. The Jaguars will also try to get playoff revenge on the Chiefs after adding Calvin Ridley to hopefully have the firepower necessary to deal with that team, which should be getting Travis Kelce and Chris Jones back. The Lions can also get some revenge on the Seahawks for last year’s 48-45 loss that provided the tie-breaker for Seattle to get the No. 7 seed.

This week’s articles:

Week 1 Story: Why were offenses so bad in Week 1? I look at everything from the injuries, rain, high number of division games, and the main culprit being the historic lack of experienced quarterbacks starting for teams they have multiple years of experience with.

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 2 at 365Scores – I’m pissed I went 0-7 on this last week when so many of my other articles were strong (6-1 on prime-time picks, 5-1 on computer picks, 2-1 on best bets, and 6-4 on player props)

NFL Week 2 Predictions

I’m taking the push for TNF because the article I wrote Wednesday night had a pick of Eagles -6, and I should have knew something fishy was going on when it was changing to -5.5 on FanDuel just before kickoff. Having said that, the Eagles covered Week 1 in NE when they really didn’t play well enough to deserve it, and they wouldn’t have deserved it in this game either. The Vikings lost 4 fumbles, including one of those stupid through the end zone plays, and the Eagles again looked rough in the passing game outside of two bombs to DeVonta Smith. But they are 2-0. The secondary is just lacking with lost players and injuries right now.

Home favorites are only 2-8-1 ATS this year. Rough start.

I found myself liking the regression there with these first four picks, but really I just liked Atlanta all week with Green Bay’s hamstring injuries, the Lions to light up Seattle, the Bills to get right against the Raiders, and I am fading Chicago after last week’s garbage performance.

Then by the time I got to the Tennessee game I figured I need to throw an upset in there as I just feel like that is a tricky game for the Chargers, who are unlikely to have Austin Ekeler. They probably wouldn’t run much on the Titans anyway because of that defensive scheme, but really my favorite picks for that game are the under 45.5 and the over in Herbert’s pass attempts (38.5).

Last year the Colts couldn’t beat the Texans, but I’m just basing things off what I saw in Week 1 and I feel like Richardson can move his offense better than Stroud and use his legs for a win. I really like Richardson anytime TD scorer again this week.

Big AFC games: I’m going with the Ravens and Chiefs in close ones. Maybe 27-24 for Kansas City and 23-20 for Baltimore. I just don’t think Joe Burrow is healthy enough on that calf and he was not effective against the Ravens last year. It sucks that Baltimore already has a lot of injuries, but it sounds like Mark Andrews is playing. Most importantly, Lamar is there, and it’s time this team gets to have him in a big game. As for the Jaguars, I like what Ridley adds to the offense, but I’ m still going to trust the Chiefs with their other 2 elite players back.

Good win for the Rams last week but McVay has been owned by Shanahan outside of one quarter since 2019. I really like Brock Purdy to throw over 1.5 TDs again, something he’s done in 8-of-9 games when he throws 20+ passes. Remember, the Rams were a defense Garoppolo usually had good numbers against. Now the Rams have Aaron Donald and a lot of random starters. I like Purdy to keep rolling here and Stafford to not get the same protection he had in Seattle.

NYG-ARI is a toilet bowl I wouldn’t put much money on. Brian Daboll is 7-0 ATS after a loss, but after seeing how Arizona sacked Sam Howell 6 times and what the Giants did, I’m at least hedging my bets and having the Giants escaping with a 1-to-4 point win in that one. They could lose it too. You don’t really think Arizona is going 0-17 yet do you? They almost clipped Washington last week.

NYJ-DAL is the other New York trap game after what happened last week. Obviously, Dallas should roll to an easy win over Zach Wilson, but something about trusting the NY defense here makes me think it’ll at least be close as long as Wilson does not gift them turnovers. It’s not like Dallas was on fire offensively in Week 1. I also remember Sam Darnold beating Dallas in another year with big playoff expectations. If anyone is capable of screwing this up, it’s Dallas.

Coin flips for DEN & MIA games but I like Jerry Jeudy coming back and the NE OL is really injured. Mostly just curious to see if Belichick holds Tyreek under 100 again on SNF.

Monday double-header: I think the Saints get their first game-winning drive from Derek Carr and the Panthers lose a 52nd straight game when trailing in the 4th quarter. As for the Pittsburgh game, my best bet is Steelers over 9.5 1H points. They can’t be worse than last week, right? I’m picking them for the upset too just out of history. The Steelers have won 20 straight home games on MNF (9-0 under Tomlin). They usually deliver as a home underdog, last week aside, but I also think the 49ers are way better than Cleveland. Maybe T.J. Watt can force Watson into strip-sacks that set up short fields for the offense. But if the Steelers implode in this one then I’m quickly fading them going forward.

I did say watch them go from being the hottest offense in August to one of the worst in September when real games are played.

But I’ll be back Monday morning with the recap of Sunday’s action.

NFL Week 1 Predictions: The Brady vs. Mahomes Slander (Plus Awards) Edition

For a yearly tradition, I dropped my super long NFL season predictions and forgot to make my award predictions until Saturday. So, you are getting season awards picks, Week 1 picks & betting analysis, and a quasi-Close Encounters recap of Lions-Chiefs with a factual retort of some Tom Brady nonsense that popped up one game into his retirement.

NFL 2023 Award Predictions

I am not going to let Thursday night change my choices as I have been on the record all summer of saying I’m not on Patrick Mahomes winning back-to-back MVPs nor do I like Jahmyr Gibbs for OROY. My Aidan Hutchinson darkhorse DPOY did however not get off to a great start. But these are the picks I’m feeling okay about:

  • MVP: Aaron Rodgers, Jets
  • OPOY: Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals
  • DPOY: T.J. Watt, Steelers
  • OROY: Bijan Robinson, Falcons
  • DROY: Jalen Carter, Eagles
  • Comeback Player of the Year: Lamar Jackson, Ravens
  • Coach of the Year: Sean Payton, Broncos
  • Assistant Coach of the Year: Todd Monken, Ravens OC

If you saw my Super Bowl pick of the Ravens, you’ll understand the Monken selection and hopefully the Lamar Jackson one, who I have staying healthy this year. We can have the Damar Hamlin discourse another day.

I think the MVP is going to an AFC quarterback for sure, but I also think the top trio of Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow may not be worth your bet. I’d sooner choose from Rodgers, Lamar, Justin Herbert, and even the Florida guys (Tua and Trevor Lawrence). Maybe this will start to make more sense when you see my Week 1 picks.

NFL Week 1 Predictions

Welp, already taking a loss after the Chiefs played one of their worst games of the Mahomes era. More on that one below.

I was going underdogs early before taking the favorites late. Again, I spent the 2023 preview intro talking about uncertainty this year, so we will start to learn things this weekend like if Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, and Jordan Love are for real, if the Rams and Cardinals are going to be truly terrible in the NFC West, and if the Vikings are going to shit their pants in close games after going 11-0 last regular season.

But my surprise headline for Week 1, and this is cheating with 33.3% of the results in, is that Mahomes, Burrow, and Allen all lose in Week 1, signifying the deep AFC competition may be for real. The 2022 NFL season we were supposed to get is happening a year later in 2023.

I also love the Steelers as a Week 1 upset pick over the 49ers.

Sam Howell over 1.5 TD passes (+154 at FanDuel) is one of my favorite prop picks this week. He gets the awful Cardinals at home in a perfect Week 1 matchup. Plus, you can just see that headline of “Howell outshines Mahomes as Eric Bieniemy gets last laugh.” Just what we needed…

And while I know I’m the “Rodgers isn’t a good comeback QB” guy from over a decade ago, he has improved in that area, and I think he pulls one off against Buffalo to end a fun week.

In fact, here’s my new Friday column at 365Scores where I go over 7 picks I like for the weekend.

Just a couple notes before the Brady-Mahomes part.

Week 1 Rookie Quarterbacks

We get to see a trio of rookie quarterbacks start in Week 1 after there were none in 2022. Since 1998, rookie quarterbacks are just 12-20-1 in Week 1 starts. Even the list of winners, 2008 aside, is pretty uninspiring:

I would definitely bet against C.J. Stroud in Baltimore. Ravens -6.5 1H spread is one of my favorite picks this week. The other ones are division games, so there is always a chance there. In fact, that Jacksonville-Indy game has me shying away from that spread after uncovering some shocking research this week.

Week 1 Division Games

Maybe you noticed half the schedule is division games this week, but more interestingly, four teams are favored on the road (CIN at CLE, JAX at IND, DAL at NYG, and BUF at NYJ).

NFL Week 1 Road Favorites, 2009-2022:

  • Division games: 5-22 ATS (18.5%), 9-16-2 SU (37.0%)
  • Non-division games: 32-21 ATS (60.4%), 38-14-1 SU (72.6%)

Those records are shocking, but 5-22 for a spread record is insane. Now it is only 27 games over 14 seasons, so the fact that we have 4 that apply this weekend is also unusual. But in the season of uncertainty, embrace some weird shit going down. I would be very careful in leaning on those favorites this week. I think the Cowboys are the safest pick as Dak has not lost to them since his rookie season in 2016. Burrow is only 1-4 against Stefanski and has the calf injury. The AFC South has lost predictability, and you never know what a potentially volatile, high-variance player like Anthony Richardson might do in his debut. Then you have the Rodgers-Allen game on Monday night.

Should be fun stuff.

Even When the Chiefs Lose, Mahomes Looks Better Than Your Fake GOAT Did

If I can make it over 10,350 words of a season preview before mentioning Tom Brady’s name once, why can’t his cult-like following make it more than one game after his retirement before they have Patrick Mahomes’ name in their mouth again?

Insecure much?

In watching Kansas City lose 21-20 to the Lions on Thursday night, I certainly didn’t think it was the kind of game or performance that people would use to prop up Brady over Mahomes. The Lions deserved to win, especially after the horrible short-yardage calls the Chiefs had in the 2nd half. But it was a game where you’d make a mental note that Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, the team’s 2nd and 3rd-best players, were out. There is a considerable drop when you compare the top 3 Chiefs to the other 50 players. The defense was decent without Jones, but his presence could have did something to affect Goff on some of those clean, easy throws to his wideouts that drove the passing offense for the Lions. Kelce’s impact is even more obvious, and a Tuesday injury before a Thursday game was a tough break on short notice.

I said back in July that the Chiefs could have the worst receiver situation in the NFL if there is a Kelce injury or drop-off in his play and they have to rely on this WR group. I’ve been down on Kadarius Toney for months.

But it was still shocking how badly Toney played Thursday night. No one did more to lose that game than him. He dropped a perfect pass and turned it into a pick-six in the third quarter, Kansas City’s only turnover. He was unable to catch a 3rd-and-short pass in traffic that led to a FG. He lost a yard on a 2nd-and-1 run that led to another short FG. Then after the Lions went for a 4th down at midfield because they were still too worried to give Mahomes the ball back, Toney dropped another great throw that would have had the Chiefs near the 30 and in game-winning field goal range. At that point it would be on kicker Harrison Butker. But Toney dropped it as his confidence was already shot.

Almost as bad, Mahomes had another dagger on the very next play, but that was called back for holding. On 2nd-and-20, he threw a pass that should have got about half of what they needed, but Skyy Moore, the other bum of the night, dropped that one too. Then you get into desperate times on 3rd-and-20, then you end up with 4th-and-25 after Jawaan Taylor finally got a false start after flirting with penalties all night. At this point, the smartest thing the Chiefs could have did was quickly run out of bounds at their own 9, forcing the Lions to score 8 points to end the game, or give the Chiefs the ball back with time in a one-possession game. It’s the kind of situation no one’s ever really thought about, but this is what happens when you’re in no man’s land on 4th-and-20+ and know you can’t trust your defense to get that 3-and-out. Maybe we’ll see this come up later this season, but a team would have to be choking like a dog to get to 4th-and-25 with dropped passes and penalties.

Notice I didn’t say the quarterback taking sacks or throwing wild passes when a receiver was open. Mahomes even finished with a higher QBR (72.5) than Goff (64.2) according to ESPN. I didn’t even call out the direct snap to Blake Bell that led to rookie WR Rashee Rice losing 3 yards on a 3rd-and-1 on the next to last drive — the worst call of the night.

But if you watched this game and concluded that Mahomes lost a game someone like Tom Brady would have won, then you are admitting you didn’t actually watch this game. Is he going to make Toney and Moore suddenly catch passes? Toney left a solid 10-to-17 net points on the scoreboard out there by himself. Would Brady will his defense to only give up 3 points to Jared Goff like he did in Super Bowl 53? This is now the 2nd time Mahomes has been bested by Goff late in a game after Orlando Scandrick dropped a game-clinching interception in the 54-51 game in 2018.

Mahomes may not have been great Thursday night, but he did what he had to against a division title favorite on a night the team was shorthanded. He made the kind of dagger throw he makes look easy that would have led to another night with 250 passing yards, a couple touchdowns, and the game-winning drive in a 23-21 win. But egregious drops and penalties killed that idea this time.

You know the Mahomes fatigue is setting in when people are pouncing on a game like this. That also shows how the standard is so high for Mahomes after they kept it so low for Brady for two decades. All Brady ever had to do was win and he’d get the credit no matter how ugly it looked or how little part he played in it.

This game was barely in the books before I got this reply from a random I would happily never knew existed without social media:

Very few things irk me more than a “he did more with less” line. When someone drops that one on you, chances are they are full of shit. Most of the time, they pick an example that is neither someone doing more nor having less to do it.

Brady’s 2006 season is often brought up in this context, a year where the Patriots were led in receiving by Reche Caldwell and finished 12-4 and lost in the AFC Championship Game. But what they don’t tell you is the Patriots had an elite defense that allowed no more than 21 points in 16 games that year (playoffs included), tied with legendary Super Bowl-winning defenses like the 2002 Buccaneers and 2013 Seahawks for the most such games in a season since 2002 realignment. They also had a very strong offensive line, solid running game, and all the coaching tactics (legal or otherwise) of Bill Belichick.

Sure enough, someone had to bring back a clip from 2006 when the 5-1 Patriots were playing Minnesota on MNF. Just watch this clip where Tony Kornheiser spends a minute ball-washing Brady:

If you were not following the NFL back then, this is what all the mainstream NFL media sounded like in covering Brady. You couldn’t watch a game on CBS with Phil Simms and Jim Nantz without hearing the latest “Brady record” that was always something related to a team win-loss record or some long interception-less streak that only counted the regular season because he was too busy saving his multiple red-zone picks for the playoffs back then. Sean Salisbury and the ESPN talking heads would push the “Brady Just Wins” narrative daily. Kornheiser bought into it fully here.

Then there’s the “you can’t name a receiver he plays with” narrative that picked up steam here and followed him the rest of his career no matter how ridiculous it was. This team developed some of the best slot receivers, receiving backs, and tight ends in later years while targeting countless established free agents, and someone like Deion Sanders would still go gleefully on NFL Network to say “no one knows these receivers!” Dude, it’s your job to know them.

Tight end Ben Watson was a first-round pick. Do we not know him because his most memorable play was chasing down Champ Bailey on what should have been a 100-yard pick-six thrown by Brady in the 2005 AFC divisional? Instead, the Broncos scored a 1-yard touchdown so Brady fans can blame the defense for those points allowed. My favorite Watson stat is that he had a career-high 825 yards when he was 35 years old (ancient for a TE) and Drew Brees was his QB in New Orleans. Watson had 500 yards in a season 5 times in his career, but he only did it once with Brady.

And did we just forget New England legend Troy Brown and receiving back Kevin Faulk from the Super Bowl years? Sure, Brown first had his breakout under Drew Bledsoe, and Faulk had his most productive receiving season with Matt Cassel, a high school QB, in 2008. But they were smart, heady players for that team for many years.

Watson, Brown, and Faulk were 2nd-to-4th in targets for the 2006 Patriots, by the way. Reche Caldwell was No. 1. He was a mid-2nd round pick by the Chargers who should be best known there for fumbling away a potential game-winning drive for Drew Brees. Twice even (2002 Chiefs, 2005 Eagles games). Guess Brees should have willed him better. I’d take the 2006 version of Caldwell over Toney and Moore in a heartbeat right now.

There is plenty more I can say about how nauseating the historical coverage of Brady was in 2006, but we’re one game into the 2023 season. Let’s pace ourselves. The last thing I wanted to share was something I noticed after updating Mahomes’ failed game-winning drives for which he has 16 such losses now in his career. These are games where he had the ball with a tie or 1-8 point deficit in the fourth quarter or overtime.

Brady only had 16 failed GWDs through the 2009 season, his 10th year in the league thanks to how historically great the Patriots were at making clutch field goals and shutting offenses down on defense with the game on the line. Also an incredible amount of luck, but again, let’s pace ourselves.

When you compare Mahomes’ 16 failed GWD attempts to Brady’s first 16 failed GWD attempts, it shows you one quarterback has been clutch as they come even in defeat while the other was usually a huge reason why his team lost these games.

I highlighted in green each area where the quarterback either fared better or had the more adverse situation to overcome.

I can barely express how lopsided this is, presenting Mahomes as the much better quarterback in defeat. Keep in mind I’ve been tracking games like this for 20 years now, so I saw very early on that when the Patriots lost during this time, Brady usually had awful games. Since he rarely had to experience those losses where your kicker misses at the end or the defense gives up a late score, he was severely lacking in good statistical performances in team losses. He really didn’t start adding some of those until his final decade in the NFL.

So, when people say things like “when Brady loses, it’s his fault, and when Mahomes loses, it’s everyone else’s fault”” you show them this and tell them “yes, exactly.” Because that’s usually how it goes. Do you think a QB completing under 50% of his passes, barely scraping 5.0 YPA, and a 1 TD, 10 INT ratio was being clutch?

Meanwhile, you are looking at 16 of the 20 losses in Mahomes’ career so far. This table does not include the 29-28 loss to the 2018 Chargers where the defense blew a 14-point 4Q lead with 4 seconds left as the offense did not register a possession down 29-28. The Chiefs still had the late lead in 75% of these games. Mahomes led 10 game-tying or go-ahead drives compared to just 3 for Brady.

From this table, it’s not even close.

  • Brady had 25 more passing yards but on 34 more attempts.
  • He did have a lower sack rate.
  • He did have worse starting field position, which was surprising.
  • But in terms of drives where the QB turned it over or on downs, Brady more than doubles up Mahomes at 15-7.
  • Mahomes’ field goal unit failed him twice while that happened to Brady once in his 23-year career (2012 Cardinals).
  • Brady did not have enough time to beat the 2009 Colts, a game infamous for his failure on 4th-and-2 deep in his own end that set up that finish.

But the other tied scenarios here further show how laughable this stuff really is. The 2002 Chargers loss is doing some heavy lifting for Brady with 2 appearances. In that first showdown with a young Brees, the Chargers took a 21-14 lead with 14:14 left in the 3rd quarter after LaDainian Tomlinson scored a 58-yard touchdown run.

Brady had 5 drives to answer that score and did this:

  • 3rd QT INT #1 (floated right to defender)
  • 3rd QT INT #2 in scoring range (clean pocket; didn’t even see the LB)
  • Marc Edwards stuffed on 4th & 1 at SD 39 w/12:33 left
  • A bad run call on 3rd & 10 (after 2 Brady INC) that led to a punt
  • After needing 96 yards with 1:51 and 1 timeout, Brady completed a pass to Faulk, who wanted to lateral, got blown up, fumbled, Chargers recovered ball at midfield with 8 seconds left. It was already over.

See for yourself. The funny thing is while Brady was throwing picks, his defense stopped LT on back-to-back runs with 1 yard to go on 3rd & 4th down, and blocked a 50-yd FG to keep him in a one-score game. Typical Patriots. But this was a bad game for him and the Faulk fumble was not that big.

It’s not like Faulk fumbled at the opponent’s 32 in a 36-35 game with 1:20 left, and the defense, which blew a 35-24 4Q lead, failed to get the ball back even after the opponent went for a 4th=and-1 in their own end because they were that afraid of giving Brady the ball back. That’s what Clyde Edwards-Helaire did on a fumble against the 2021 Ravens for Mahomes.

While Edwards getting stuffed on 4th & 1 hurt, there was still 12:33 left. Imagine waiting patiently for your defense to get Jacoby Brissett and the 2019 Colts off the field from a FG drive that took 8:34, and now you’re down 16-10 with 7:40 left. Your receiver gets a facemask penalty on a 1st-down catch, and now you’re in 1st-and-20, soon to be 3rd-and-28 after a shockingly bad 2-yd run on 2nd-and-30. But you find a receiver anyway and he gets 27 of the 28 yards, stopping short at the end instead of running with momentum for the first down. You hand off to the RB on 4th-and-1 and he gets stuffed. By the time you see the ball again, it’s 19-10 and you have 2:27 and no timeouts to pull off a miracle. You get the FG, but no onside kick recovery, so you lose 19-13 in one of the weirdest losses of your career.

Mahomes also threw for over 320 yards in both of those games and had one total turnover. At least that one didn’t go right off his receiver’s hands, so he is human and will make mistakes.

But if people would stop with the silly narratives and start calling these games out for what happened, start looking at how the quarterback played and how his teammates helped or hurt him, we would have a clear sense of who was the LOAT, and who was held back by his teammates from being the true GOAT.

Mahomes will be just fine, and the cult of Brady better hope the Chiefs keep making mistakes like drafting stiffs over DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, and Christian Watson. Cause when the Chiefs find the true successors to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce for the second phase of Mahomes’ career, the record books won’t be safe.

Right now, we only know the names of these Chiefs receivers because they were so spectacularly awful Thursday night. That’s the real takeaway from Game 1 of 285. Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to share this link with people who will simultaneously tell me Julian Edelman was a nobody and he should easily be in the Hall of Fame.

2023 NFL Predictions

In most NFL offseasons, I come up with my Super Bowl vision for the upcoming season rather early. But this year, I really did not figure things out until a few days ago. Even then, I am not loving the pick.

As a reminder, here is my past decade of preseason predictions. One of these old Super Bowl picks is something I will reuse this year too.

My predictions were not good last year, though I guess I should have trusted my gut on the Eagles going 14-3 with an easy schedule. I also seem to follow an up-and-down pattern.

In 2021, I was better than ever, only off by an average of 1.28 wins for each team and getting 28 teams within 2 games of their final record. But last year, I was off by 2.78, tied with the 2020 COVID year for my worst, and I only had 14 teams within 2 games of their record.

Let’s just say my faith in Russell Wilson (Broncos) and Matt Ryan (Colts) working out for their AFC teams was rejected by the script writers. My vision for Buffalo being the team to beat worked out for most of the year, but after the Von Miller injury and the traumatic Damar Hamlin experience, the Bills looked emotionally wiped out by the time they lost (with ease) to the Bengals in the divisional round.

But I think choosing this year’s theme is easy and can be summed up in one word: Uncertainty.

Sure, Super Bowl 58 might just come down to picking one from the Chiefs/Bengals/Bills to take on one from the Eagles/49ers/Cowboys, but the rest of the league is grappling with a ton of uncertainty as we continue to see record quarterback movement, and not many head coaches are established with their teams as well.

But the quarterback experiments going on in 2023 are something we are not used to seeing at this level. Aside from Aaron Rodgers returning for a 19th season, the old guard is basically gone. We are in a new era, and there is already a game in Week 1 where teams might be starting Sam Howell against Joshua Dobbs (or something called Clayton Tune).

How many of these guys make it the full year? The 2022 season only had 10 quarterbacks start every game, the fewest since 1999. That even includes Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, who both played 16 games as their game against each other was cancelled after Damar Hamlin was taken to the hospital. It was the first time since 1935 that the NFL cancelled a game for non-strike reasons.

There are 15 quarterbacks this season who have fewer than 16 starts with their current team. Throw in the Arizona situation to replace the recovering Kyler Murray, and there are 9 quarterbacks with fewer than 16 starts in the NFL period.

This is a lot of uncertainty and a lot of learning to do about these new players as well as the old players in new situations. We were spoiled a bit by the Buccaneers and Rams winning Super Bowls right away with franchise quarterbacks. After Ryan and Wilson last year, you should not even assume Rodgers will be a hit in New York.

People can make their predictions, and maybe they’ll look good on them, but I would be suspicious of anyone speaking with confidence that they know Jordan Love will be a bust or Desmond Ridder will be a good one in Atlanta. We just don’t know. Throw in Howell in Washington, and there is a chance at least one of those new NFC quarterbacks will pop this year and look good. But we really know less than usual this year.

Not to mention, the 2022 season was already a historically weird year.

Oh yeah, it may have ended with a Super Bowl between No. 1 seeds, and you will accuse me of saying this about every year. It is true that each NFL season comes with its own unique features, but last year really was a wild ride, and I am not just talking about the Vikings. You know, the team that pulled off the most shocking fumble recovery touchdown since the Miracle at the Meadowlands and set a record with a 33-0 comeback on their way to tying the record with 8 fourth-quarter comebacks in a season.

But the whole league was in comeback mode at record levels:

  • 50 teams won games after trailing by 10 points at any point in the regular season (single-season record; old record was 43)
  • 141 games were decided by 7 or fewer points (single-season record)
  • 156 games were decided by 8 or fewer points (single-season record)
  • 85 fourth-quarter comeback wins, including playoffs (single-season record; old record was 73)
  • The percentage of games with a 4QC opportunity (61.25%) was at its highest since 2013

Regression could be rough for Minnesota in close games this year, but what about the teams who kept blowing leads like the Raiders, Broncos, and Ravens? It probably is not a coincidence that Trevor Lawrence and Kenny Pickett were getting their comeback reputations built by beating the Raiders and Ravens late.

Speaking of the Steelers and Jaguars, it was a weird season for a lot of teams turning poor starts into strong finishes, or vice versa. Streaking was off the charts in 2022:

  • The 2022 Dolphins and 2022 Jaguars are 2-of-9 playoff teams in NFL history to have a 5-game losing streak during the season. They are only the 5th and 6th playoff teams to have 5-game streaks of losing and winning during the same regular season.
  • Four teams made the playoffs with a negative scoring differential in 2022 (Vikings, Giants, Dolphins, Buccaneers) – the most in a non-strike season in NFL history.
  • The 2022 Vikings (13-4) are the only team to win more than 11 games in a season with a negative scoring differential.
  • Only four teams in NFL history started 2-6 and finished with 9+ wins, and three of them happened last year (2022 Steelers, Lions, and Jaguars all finished 9-8).
  • The 2022 Titans join the 1994 Eagles as the only teams to win 7 games before ending their season on a losing streak of 7 games.
  • For the first time since the Steelers and Raiders in 1976, the playoffs had two teams on an active 10-game winning streak, but the Bengals (10) and 49ers (12) both lost on Championship Sunday.
  • For the first time since the merger, three teams who won 12-plus games (Rams, Buccaneers, Packers) in one conference all finished with a losing record the next season.
  • The 2022 Rams set an NFL record for the worst record (5-12) by a defending Super Bowl champion.

Did I mention the last pick in the draft almost went on an undefeated run to the Super Bowl before his elbow exploded?

So, you expect me to give you good predictions for 2023 and figure things out like if Sam Howell will be great, or if the Jets are getting a legitimate Rodgers when I still don’t even know what to think about so many things from 2022.

Is Brock Purdy really that guy? Is Jimmy Garoppolo going to get exposed in Las Vegas, or is Josh McDaniels another QB guru like Kyle Shanahan who will get the best out of him? Is Trevor Lawrence the real deal, or are we just overlooking how his defense won the division title by making Joshua Dobbs fumble and that he threw four picks before he threw a touchdown in that playoff game? Is Tua really that good, concussions aside, or did he just beat up on bad teams with the best speed at wideout in the NFL? Is Russell Wilson just cooked?

I tried my best this year. Since late July, I have been doing three full-length previews for every team except Buffalo, so that is a total of 95 published team previews at three different sites. The 365Scores previews are more or less my “official” previews as they are all longer (most around 2500 words) and have more research to them than the ones at BMR and OT. But practically every preview is 1500+ words, so that is 5000+ words per team, which is why I’m fatigued over previews and not looking forward to summarizing them all 32 more times here.

But I have to keep myself to a standard, and I have been posting these previews every year on here since 2012. I will include links to all the previews and you can choose to read how much you want. I did my best to not have a ton of overlap.

Note: The words written after each preview link may not necessarily reflect what is written in said link. You can only trust that the 365Scores previews have extra research. I’m just giving my thoughts on the teams here, 48 hours before opening night. Also, any over/under picks in these articles were subject to change as I made my final record predictions over the weekend after going through the schedule.

AFC WEST

1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)

365Scores Preview: The 95th and final team preview I wrote is the most epic one at over 5,500 words. I go through why the Chiefs were never supposed to win last year’s Super Bowl until they did in a truly one-of-a-kind manner that is the defining moment for Mahomes’ legacy right now. I also look at how the offense adapted without Tyreek Hill, and why the issues we thought would make the team take a step back in 2022 didn’t materialize, and how they could show up this season, a year late.

BMR Preview: Well, I wrote this blurb before I went to bed Tuesday morning, only to wake up to the news about Travis Kelce’s injury. Hopefully he only misses a game at best, because I did write back in July how a Kelce injury would make things scary for this offense. The Chiefs already lost offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., but I’d sooner be worried about a Chris Jones holdout taking real games away for the defense than to be concerned about those two departures. It just stinks that Kadarius Toney is so unreliable. He’s the only wide receiver who could turn a Netflix & Chill evening into a trip to the ICU.

OT Preview: No team has repeated since the 2003-04 Patriots, so this is the longest drought in history without a repeat champion. But expecting one team to reach a 4th Super Bowl in 5 years is tough, especially with the AFC getting deeper and the Chiefs have a lot of tough games. Only the 1990-93 Bills (0-4) and the 2014-18 Patriots (3-1) pulled off that Super Bowl run, but the Chiefs are down for making history. They have gone 33 straight games without losing by more than 4 points, two games shy of a new record.

2. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8)

365Scores Preview: This preview tells the story of how the Chargers ignoring a fatigued Gerald Everett in Week 2 in Kansas City could have been the butterfly effect of the season, changing everything from the AFC West winner to the MVP to the Super Bowl outcome. Despite holding a lead in the fourth quarter of every Justin Hebert vs. Patrick Mahomes matchup, the Chargers are just 1-4 in those games. Herbert has even led a go-ahead drive in 4-of-5 games, including three touchdown passes after the 2:30 mark.

But the Chargers saved their ultimate Chargering act for the playoffs in Jacksonville, blowing a 27-0 lead. These losses in front of a national audience have added to the perception that Herbert is not clutch or as good as Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or even Trevor Lawrence. But I nip that in the bud here by examining how he’s the only one of that group who was great as a rookie, he’s the only one who has to share a division with Mahomes (which limits his success), he’s the only one who has never had a solid defense, and he’s never been given a great, young receiver to flourish with like they have all had.

BMR Preview: The Chargers adding Kellen Moore at offensive coordinator is a good move that should be beneficial to Herbert and Austin Ekeler. The Chargers will continue to build around the pass, but they will hopefully air it out more, and the receivers must stay healthy. Quinten Johnston from TCU is good injury insurance, but I’m not sure if the team shouldn’t have drafted Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison instead.

OT Preview: If the Chargers are going to return to the playoffs, they need a big effort from the defense again in Week 1 against Miami, a potential tie-breaker scenario can come from that game. Last year, the Chargers won 10 games but the only team they beat who did not lose 10+ games was Miami.  We’ll see how the defense responds as Joey Bosa has not played a full game since Week 2, and corner J.C. Jackson was a major bust in his first year with the team.

3. Denver Broncos (9-8)

365Scores Preview: I am very excited to see how this union of Sean Payton and Russell Wilson plays out. If you look at NFL history, old quarterbacks simply do not get three chances to prove they are still good. If Wilson is still lousy under Payton this year, I am not sure what the team can do. The defense may also regress, but as long as the offense improves dramatically and the team finishes with a winning record, I like Payton for Coach of the Year.

BMR Preview: Forget ending the 15-game losing streak to the Chiefs. Can this team at least beat the Raiders once in the 2020s? Those division games will be critical, but oddly enough, some of Wilson’s best moments in 2022 came against the Chiefs. If Payton can get him back on track, this is a team that could be due for positive regression after blowing a handful of fourth-quarter leads last year. They also get some key players back healthy like left tackle Garett Bolles and running back Javonte Williams. I also am curious to see if Marvin Mims can be a big play threat as a rookie.

OT Preview: Do not expect Russ to turn into a 5,000-yard passer under Payton. He is not Drew Brees, but fortunately, Payton had some experience at starting other quarterbacks in his final years with the Saints, including Taysom Hill (if he counts as a real quarterback). One thing that concerns me is Jerry Jeudy’s injury, because he was by far the weapon Wilson played best with last year. They need to make sure he can stay healthy if this is going to work as the Broncos have a lot of good offenses to compete with for playoff spots this year.

4. Las Vegas Raiders (7-10)

365Scores Preview: The Raiders were comical in the way they would forget games are 60 minutes long last year. They set some records for blowing leads, including 5 losses after leading by double digits in the second half. In all, the Raiders blew 6 fourth-quarter leads to lead the NFL in 2022, and that does not include the Kansas City game where they gave up 4 touchdowns to Travis Kelce on 25 receiving yards in blowing a 17-point lead.

BMR Preview: I also looked at the impressive but polarizing career for Jimmy Garoppolo, who reunites with Josh McDaniels. I do not believe Garoppolo is as great as his stats say, but I also believe he cannot be a bum and luck into those numbers over this large of a sample size. I think he could be a better fit than Derek Carr was.

OT Preview: Speaking of Carr, it really shocked me that he threw 8 touchdown passes of 30-plus yards to Davante Adams, the same number Aaron Rodgers had to Davante in 8 seasons together. That play-action and running game can be special for this offense. Now if only the defense can find some help for Maxx Crosby and be more respectable this year. This team can absolutely win more games, but the schedule is going to make it harder to do better for the playoffs. Still, I think over 6.5 wins is one of the best bets this year.

NFC WEST

1. San Francisco 49ers (12-5)

365Scores Preview: Is Brock Purdy the new late-round wunderkind or is he damaged rookie goods like RG3? It usually is a great sign for career success when a rookie quarterback plays well, and Purdy certainly did that last year even if he got away with his share of dropped picks. But when injury comes into play like it did for RG3 and Greg Cook, that can ruin a career. Purdy has to prove he can overcome the elbow surgery, and that his last season was legitimate. This can go anywhere from him getting benched for Sam Darnold to winning MVP, but having the most uniquely talented set of skill players in a great system and a top defense should make the 49ers a division winner again.

BMR Preview: I am not concerned about defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans going to Houston and taking safety Jimmie Ward with him. This is still a ridiculously talented defense at all levels, and besides, the 49ers get 4 games with the Cardinals and Rams.

OT Preview: The 49ers may be a risky Super Bowl pick and I do feel like trusting the Eagles and Cowboys more, but it is hard to name any other team in the conference that should be better this year. It is a 3-horse race, and the 49ers will face both this regular season with a chance to get a No. 1 seed. Just have to hope this QB situation does not backfire in the worst way this year. The Garoppolo safety blanket is gone for Shanahan.

2. Seattle Seahawks (8-9)

365Scores Preview: Geno Smith’s career arc is very unique since getting punched by a teammate in 2015 basically derailed his true third season as a starter. He made the most of last year’s opportunity, but I’m still lukewarm on the Seahawks being legit. They were basically a .500 team that was fortunate to make two comebacks against the Rams (who did not have their best trio of players in either game), or else both teams would have finished 7-10. Seattle’s only big winning streak (4-0) was also something that included a sweep of the Cardinals and a win over the Giants. Just not impressed enough with this team to predict more this year, but I did take a fun look at old quarterbacks to break out and found most stay close in team record the following year, hence 8-9 for Seattle from me.

BMR Preview: The Seahawks have not had a top 10 defense since 2016. That would help them out, but I just don’t see it after bringing back Bobby Wagner and drafting a corner in the top 5. Personally, I think Jalen Carter would have been more interesting there, but I understand why Pete Carroll would be hesitant to get a guy who may not love the game like he should. But when you’re in your 70s, taking the best talent out there is also enticing.

OT Preview: I think the Seahawks drafted the right wide receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but he is hurt to start the year and should not be more than a WR3 in 2023 unless Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf gets hurt. With the way this team struggled to beat the 49ers last year, I’m just not sold they can leapfrog them this year.

3. Los Angeles Rams (4-13)

365Scores Preview: I can remember earlier this summer when I had the Rams going ahead of Seattle, then I took a closer look at the roster. What the hell is this team? It’s Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald, and 50 NPCs. Kupp even has a hamstring injury already and may miss Week 1. It makes sense that the Rams would have the worst season ever for a defending champion, but the fall from grace is still crazy to see.

BMR Preview: The Rams had 8 defenders play 700+ snaps last year and all but one of them is gone this year. I’ve never seen anything like that. On the bright side, the Rams have a 2024 first-round pick, and it may be awfully high.

OT Preview: The good news is the Cardinals are even worse. Or maybe that’s bad news, because if you’re going to have a terrible season, might as well swing for the fences and get that No. 1 pick.

4. Arizona Cardinals (2-15)

365Scores Preview: Is Arizona trying to tank, and what should the tank campaign name be? I like “Crumble for Caleb” a lot. But this team is going to be unwatchable this year. I did my best to inject some humor and insults in this preview for the team with easily the worst Super Bowl odds and lowest over/under win total (4.5, maybe down to 3.5) this year.

BMR Preview: Clearly, I have Arizona making a real run at that No. 1 pick, which is presumably USC quarterback Caleb Williams. Hell, they might even get the No. 2 pick since they own Houston’s pick for the Will Anderson trade. Maybe they can get Marvin Harrison Jr. too.

OT Preview: But you may be surprised to know that just 2-of-22 teams in the 32-team era had the worst preseason win total and actually earned the No. 1 pick. That was the 2016 Browns (drafted Myles Garrett) and 2020 Jaguars (drafted Trevor Lawrence). But when you are releasing Colt McCoy and deciding between Joshua Dobbs and rookie Clayton Tune before Week 1, you are not taking this seriously. For the record, I bashed the Jonathan Gannon signing when it happened as I don’t think he’s a good coordinator. His record will likely back up he’s a lousy coach this year, but he could luck into quite a prospect in Williams next year.

AFC EAST

1. Buffalo Bills (12-5)

365Scores Preview: One of my earliest previews in July, I detail the emotional rollercoaster the Bills went on last year as their season as Super Bowl favorites crashed with their worst loss in a season and a half (27-10 to Cincy). Maybe it was one bad game, but if that is how their matchups with the Bengals are going to go, they have a long way to improve with that one. At least they know how to beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead.

BMR Preview: But I really do believe people are overlooking how the Damar Hamlin situation drained this team, and Von Miller’s injury was too much to overcome as they lacked a pass rush after he was lost. This team could have a redemption story this year. It happens often that teams shake off devastating playoff losses and win a Super Bowl the next year. I also think the early schedule for the Jets is brutal, so I still like Buffalo to win the AFC East despite many wanting to pick this team to fall off. I refuse to do it yet, and I did like the draft pick of Dalton Kincaid. Maybe when the big matchups come late in the year, the defense can have guys like Von and Tre’Davious White healthy unlike the last two seasons. Remember, you don’t always win with your best team. You win with the one that had the best circumstances.

2. New York Jets (12-5)

365Scores Preview: This should be fun. The team with the first 4,000-yard passer in 1967 seeks a second in 2023 with the quarterback who last made the Super Bowl in 2010. But that 12-season stretch was also the last time the Jets were in the playoffs, so why not party like it’s 2010 again? Giving Aaron Rodgers his best defense since maybe 2010 would be a huge deal, and this team clearly just needed a solid quarterback last year to make the playoffs. They ended the year on a 6-game slide after starting 7-4.

BMR Preview: This should be the year the Jets end the 14-game losing streak against New England. But the schedule is fascinating here as the Jets have a brutal run in the first 6 games before the bye. It would not be shocking if they are 2-4 and hearing it from the media, but I think you should just stay the course with this team. The schedule will ease up and they will play some of their best football down the stretch going into the playoffs where anything can happen.

OT Preview: There is no doubt a lot of expectations on Rodgers, but I think he can win MVP as this team elevating its passing game will largely be credited to him. He has some receivers from Green Bay along for the ride, he has his embattled coordinator (Nathaniel Hackett) who was a bum in Denver, but he might be one of those guys who is good at being just a coordinator. This should help the process, but Rodgers will have to overcome that early schedule and hang in there. I don’t love the Super Bowl chances this year as I think the other teams have an experience edge and I’m still not sure what to make of Robert Saleh. But for a change, the Jets should have a passing game and be an interesting watch.

365Scores Preview: The rookie year for Mike McDaniel in Miami was a success as he made the playoffs and got Tyreek Hill to help Tua Tagovailoa have a breakout season where he led the NFL in many passing efficiency categories. Unfortunately, multiple concussions and Miami’s early mismanagement of them ended his season before the playoffs. Tua could be a darkhorse MVP candidate if he stays healthy this year.

3. Miami Dolphins (9-8)

BMR Preview: It was a weird season with the Dolphins alternating between winning and losing streaks of 3 and 5 games. Some of that was tied to Tua’s health, but he also lost his last four starts when the competition got tougher.

OT Preview: While McDaniel comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, this team looks closer to the Sean McVay and Rams way of doing things. They are very top-heavy on talent at wideout and pass rusher, but not much depth to speak of. If a hamstring goes for Hill or Waddle, look out as they did not do much to find a third receiving weapon. The Jalen Ramsey injury is also a bummer, but I did like the hiring of Vic Fangio at DC. Still, something is missing for me with this team to think they improve on last year’s record.

4. New England Patriots (6-11)

365Scores Preview: Well, at least Matt Patricia won’t be calling plays this year. But I really do think this is the year the Patriots fall to last in the AFC East after the quarterback imbalance has completely swung the other way for them. The last straw was Rodgers joining the Jets, because Belichick has used the Jets for two wins every year since 2016. That ends this year, and the Patriots are going to face a ton of better quarterbacks than Mac Jones unless they resort to poisoning the opponent.

BMR Preview: If you look at New England’s 8 wins last year, the best quarterback they beat was Jared Goff (Lions). Everyone else was a backup, benched, or injured starter. They won’t have that luxury this year, and they have been getting owned by Tua and Allen in the division lately. They also have to play Hurts, Mahomes, Herbert, etc.

OT Preview: The Patriots did not upgrade the weapons enough for Jones to make me think this offense is going to be adequate enough to deal with this schedule. You know the defense will be adequate and keep the team in games, but their edge in close games is gone. This is now the team that does stupid shit like a lateral at midfield back to the quarterback or fumbling inside the 5-yard line against the Bengals on a first down.

You had a great run, but it’s over, Bill.

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)

365Scores Preview: This was my first preview out of 95 this summer. The Eagles are still the better team than the Cowboys and 49ers in my view, but the reason I still have trust issues is they just never beat good quarterbacks on good teams. They got by last year beating up on Cooper Rush, or beating teams that finished with winning records that they played when they were starting 2-6. Then Brock Purdy saw his elbow explode after 6 snaps in the title game. It was a lot of fortunate schedule quirks, and I want to see this team beat the good quarterbacks. Hurts is 0-7 against QBs who rank in the top 15 in QBR on a team that wins 10-plus games.

BMR Preview: The NFC East has not had a repeat champion since the 2001-04 Eagles. Every other division has had at least two teams repeat in that time. But I really think the Eagles can get it done this year. I’m not worried about losing the two coordinators, and they still have one of the most talented, balanced rosters.

OT Preview: But I must say adding Jalen Carter to that pass rush is nasty work. The rich get richer. He should be able to learn from Fletcher Cox and I have several bets on him winning Defensive Rookie of the Year. This defense could actually be better this year as I think Gannon’s scheme held them back. But I also have some concerns with Jalen Hurts becoming the first quarterback to run the ball 200 times in a season (playoffs included). They need to dial that back if they don’t want a repeat of last year as he may not return in time from injury for the playoffs.

Keep the quarterback sneak though, even if I hate watching it. That’s just deadly effective for what was already the most unstoppable play from scrimmage in the game.

2. Dallas Cowboys (12-5)

365Scores Preview: The Cowboys are no worse than third in the NFC behind the 49ers and Eagles. But the Cowboys were the only NFC team to rank in the top 5 in scoring on both sides of the ball. Once Dak Prescott came back from injury, he led the team to a 9-game streak of scoring 27-plus points, the longest streak in franchise history. But the way this team melts down in losses against the Bucs, Commanders, and the 49ers in the playoffs is why it is hard to get behind them to win it all for a change.

BMR Preview: Prescott was Mr. Self Destruct last year with the picks, but a lot of them were tipped balls and bad luck. I think the offense is a great candidate for positive regression and his interception rate will drop back to normally low levels. That does not concern me. I also really like the addition of Brandin Cooks as a speedy deep threat, and Michael Gallup should look better another year removed from serious injury. Tony Pollard is also an exciting back, and so may his new backup be in Deuce Vaughn. Ezekiel Elliott is finally out of their way. I also am content with Brian Schottenheimer taking over at OC for Kellen Moore. Russell Wilson had some of his best years in Seattle with him calling the plays. This might be the best offensive core Schotty has ever coached too.

OT Preview: The defense did the unthinkable and led the league in takeaways for the 2nd year in a row. I do not see it happening for a third, but this is one of the best defenses in the league and that was not the unit that held them back in the playoff loss to the 49ers. Speaking of which, the 49ers host Dallas in Week 5 in prime time. I think this is big since Dallas had to play the 49ers, a very talented and well-coached team, in the playoffs the last two years with no experience from the regular season to learn from. Give them a taste of the matchup this year, and maybe this time they will figure it out for January should there be another playoff rematch.

3. Washington Commanders (7-10)

365Scores Preview: The truth is if there was any team I warmed up to dramatically since late July, and the preseason results were partially responsible, it would be Washington. I think 7-10 might even be a low estimate, but I am intrigued by Sam Howell, and I think this just might work out now. I’m definitely way more optimistic now than I was in this preview here. Don’t like seeing Terry McLaurin getting injured in the preseason though. Figures, he was the only player I put in a prop bet for in best bets.

BMR Preview: But Eric Bieniemy can definitely make this opportunity boost him to a head coaching job if he makes Howell, one of the most unheralded opening-day starters in years, into a legit quarterback.

OT Preview: The defense has a ton of home-grown talent and they did come up with two of the best upsets last year in making the Eagles and Cowboys cough up the ball repeatedly.

4. New York Giants (6-11)

365Scores Preview: It was a tale of two seasons for the Giants. At 6-1, they were winning almost every close game they lost in Daniel Jones’ first 3 seasons. But as the season wore on, that dried up unless they were playing Minnesota, the only NFC playoff team they were really capable of beating. I’m not a fan of the wide receiver moves for this team as they just signed a bunch of slot guys and traded for tight end Darren Waller, which would have been more exciting two years ago.

BMR Preview: The main reason I have the Giants swapped with Washington is that it was those matchups last year that dictated the Giants going to the playoffs while the Commanders were out at 8-8-1. I also have more faith in Sam Howell than I do Wentz. I just am not sure Daniel Jones showed enough to warrant the contract extension, and I’m not convinced Brian Daboll is going to get much more out of him this year.

OT Preview: The defense is also likely to continue producing volatile results as they blitz more than any unit in the league. I agree with Daboll winning Coach of the Year last year, but I see the team that finished 3-6-1 as being closer to the real Giants than the team that was 6-1.

AFC SOUTH

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7)

365Scores Preview: This was another preview I was fond of doing, because I looked at how the Jaguars made their turnaround last year, and how it was a huge departure for a team that had lost 41 straight games when allowing more than 20 points. The fact that they trailed by 17+ points a handful of times after Week 9, including getting pumped 27-goose at home to start the playoff campaign, and needed a defensive fumble return TD off a third-string QB signed in December to even make the playoffs…it all worries me about just how good this team, which did not add much outside of getting Calvin Ridley off the suspension list, will be in 2023.

BMR Preview: But by playing in the AFC South, that’s 4 games against rookie coaches and quarterbacks from Indy and Houston. I think the division alone can give this team half their wins this year. It will be interesting to see if Doug Pederson can work some Year 2 magic for Trevor Lawrence like he did with Carson Wentz in 2017.

OT Preview: But I’m still skeptical of how well this team will fare against the elite teams. You can’t keep relying on 17-point comebacks, something they did 3 times in their last 11 games after doing so once in the franchise’s first 455 games. But it is cool to see the Jaguars be relevant again, and they are aiming for back-to-back playoffs for the first time since 1996-99.

2. Tennessee Titans (8-9)

365Scores Preview: It was a true tale of two seasons as the Titans went from 7-3 to 0-7 to miss the playoffs. I’ll still never understand why the team traded A.J. Brown, a move that hampered the passing game dramatically last year. But with 4 games against the Texans and Colts, a healthy Ryan Tannehill, the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, and some skill players entering Year 2, the Titans can certainly get close to .500 again as Mike Vrabel seems to do his best work as an underdog.

BMR Preview: But I really believe this team blew its window with that playoff loss to Cincinnati as the No. 1 seed in 2021. The Titans are old news with one of the oldest quarterbacks, RB1, and WR1 trios in the league. Things would have to go really poor this year to see Will Levis start games, but Tannehill’s injury history also points to it being a possibility. But if that happens, they might be looking for a new coach in 2024 too.

OT Preview: The defense should keep the team in most games as they get Harold Landry back as their best pass rusher. I believe 8-9 is the perfect record for a team stuck in purgatory, just waiting to move on to the next era of Titans football.

3. Houston Texans (4-13)

365Scores Preview: I look at the recent run on first-time coaches who were defensive specialists, but it is not pretty when Sean McDermott, Dan Quinn, and Mike Vrabel are the only success stories so far. However, I do like the DeMeco Ryans hiring because he was not a one-year wonder as coordinator in San Francisco, he’s not a dinosaur like Lovie Smith was last year, and we know Houston is near and dear to his heart being a former player.

BMR Preview: But I also like Ryans because he brought Bobby Slowik with him from San Francisco where he has learned from Kyle Shanahan for many years. He should be able to bring those concepts with him to help C.J. Stroud, who I did not like as much as Bryce Young in the draft, but we’ll see how it goes. The Texans’ lack of weapons is concerning.

OT Preview: At least the team has a plan and can start to build an identity again after two worthless years in the wake of Deshaun Watson’s shame. I did not love the trade for Will Anderson, but I at least understand it. They just better hope he is a lot closer to J.J. Watt than Jadeveon Clowney. Even a repeat of Mario Williams would be a bit disappointing given what they gave up for that pick. But if he is an annual DPOY candidate, then you can’t hate on the move to get the best edge rusher in the draft.

4. Indianapolis Colts (4-13)

365Scores Preview: I spent an abnormal amount of time recapping a 4-win team’s season, which I broke up into five acts as the tragicomedy of the year in 2022. Only Frank Reich got a happy ending by the time it was over.

BMR Preview: Like Houston, I like the hiring of Shane Steichen and the selection of Anthony Richardson. I just think it won’t produce good results in Year 1 because this team has a lot of holes, and the Jonathan Taylor situation is not helping matters.

OT Preview: The Colts really need to be a “run the ball and play good defense” team this year, which is so out of whack with the usual Indy philosophy. But that would suit Richardson best right now. I’m just not sure an offense with Michael Pittman and some backup running backs can do much. I also liked Jelani Woods at tight end in Year 2 but see he is on short-term IR. Bummer. Looks like another long year in Indy that probably won’t be as dramatic or funny as last year’s Jeff Saturday adventure.

NFC SOUTH

1. New Orleans Saints (12-5)

365Scores Preview: One of the best rivalries in the NFL this season should be me against Saints/Derek Carr fans on Twitter. I will go well into January asking who did this team beat, because the schedule is the No. 1 factor in me picking the Saints to go 12-5 this year.

BMR Preview: But given Derek Carr’s final pass with the Raiders was a game-ending interception against the Steelers, I already won that one, didn’t I? Nine years and no playoff wins. Now he gets the best situation of his career where he should be the best quarterback in his division, the schedule is a cakewalk, and he should have his best defense ever.

OT Preview: You might say 12 wins is generous, but the Vikings just won 13 games with a negative scoring differential thanks to comeback wins. What does Carr actually do well? He gets a lot of game-winning drives, and I expect him to do that at least four times this year despite not playing that significantly better. It’s just the situation around him has never been better. However, expect this to be a one-year thing as I predict the division will be tougher in 2024. They need to take advantage of the schedule this year.

2. Atlanta Falcons (9-8)

365Scores Preview: The easy schedule was my talking point for both the Saints and Falcons. Atlanta will play 14 games against the NFC South, NFC North, and AFC South – possibly the worst divisions in the NFL. Desmond Ridder is a true wild card this year, but I can’t deny Bijan Robinson going to the most run-heavy offense makes sense even if I hated the positional value at No. 8. They will use him like he needs to be used. Will they remember they have Kyle Pitts too? We’ll see, but he and Ridder never played together last year because of injury. Drake London also looks like a hit already.

BMR Preview: The defense is a ragtag bunch of free agents, but the schedule will help them immensely too. I do not see many quarterbacks who can hang 30 points on this team, and that already rarely happened last year because Atlanta games had very few possessions due to the running attempts and 3rd-down conversions.

OT Preview: I believe in Arthur Smith enough after two 7-10 seasons to take advantage of this easy schedule, get more out of Ridder than he could in a second try with Mariota, and the Falcons will end this 5-year losing slide. But they’re not a serious contender for the Super Bowl yet.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-11)

365Scores Preview: The Buccaneers will have a quarterback this year who is not going to get rid of the ball before any receiver can get downfield because he is done getting hit in his career. But will Baker Mayfield make the easy throws to sustain drives? Will he pull off the game-winning drives he has usually sucked at after the defense keeps many games close and winnable for him? I’m not sold there.

BMR Preview: But imagine if Baker did play great this year. Dave Canales is a name to keep an eye out on as the team’s new offensive coordinator. He was Geno Smith’s quarterbacks coach last year and helped him to a career year. If he did the same with Baker in Tampa, he could be a head coach by 2025.

OT Preview: The schedule is a huge bonus for the NFC South teams except for Tampa Bay. By virtue of playing a first-place schedule, the Bucs have to play the Bills, 49ers, and Eagles – three elite teams the Saints, Falcons, and Panthers do not have to play. That is why I have them at 6-11, but still ahead of Carolina based on head-to-head results.

4. Carolina Panthers (6-11)

365Scores Preview: This preview takes an interesting look at the best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history. It does not seem likely that Bryce Young will join this list, because he lacks a lot of the advantages those quarterbacks had after the Panthers traded D.J. Moore to Chicago to help get him.

BMR Preview: Also, the Panthers may not be a traditional No. 1 draft pick team based on record, but it is a fact that Andrew Luck is the only quarterback drafted No. 1 in the Super Bowl era to win more than 7 games as a rookie.

OT Preview: But I like Young the most in this rookie quarterback class, because I think he will be closer to young Russell Wilson (a pass-first quarterback who can use his mobility to improvise) than someone like Justin Fields (all about his legs). I also liked the hiring of Frank Reich, who finally gets to craft a young quarterback instead of a revolving door of veterans on their last legs. But for the love of God, can the Panthers win a close game? They were 0-16 at game-winning drive opportunities under Matt Rhule, and the Panthers have lost 50 straight games when trailing in the fourth quarter going back to 2018.

AFC NORTH

1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4)

365Scores Preview: I have not always been the most supportive voice for Lamar Jackson, but I am riding with the Ravens to make this their redemption season. After so many injuries and one-score losses the last two years, I see the Ravens putting it together for their best overall season in the Jackson era. No, the record and statistics may not look as strong as they did in 2019 when they blew it in the first playoff game, but I’m talking about a team that can actually step up and beat the AFC elites (Chiefs, Bengals, Bills) in big games in the regular season and postseason.

BMR Preview: People either forget or didn’t know that the Ravens were leading the AFC North in December the last two years when Jackson was injured and lost for the season. With his new contract, new offensive coordinator, and the best supporting cast of weapons he’s ever had, I like Jackson as an MVP candidate and for the Ravens to win the AFC North back from the Bengals.

OT Preview: The defense may not be as elite as it used to be, but I trust John Harbaugh’s coaching, Justin Tucker is the greatest to ever do it, and I’m going to bet on Jackson to stay healthy this time and lead this team to the top seed as you can see I did not pick any other AFC team to do better than 12-5.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)

365Scores Preview: No one has won the AFC North three years in a row since 2002, and like I just said with the Ravens, it was Baltimore who led the division in December the last two years when Jackson was injured. Now it is Joe Burrow with the injury concern coming into this season, though he is expected to start Week 1. A big game with the Ravens awaits already in Week 2.

BMR Preview: I think this team is still right in the mix in the playoffs, and I like how they looked against Buffalo last year in 4.5 quarters. That may be a good matchup for them. They play the Chiefs better than just about anyone. They are a tough out, but I’m not sold that adding Orlando Brown Jr. is the solution to making Burrow take the next step and bring those sack numbers down. Burrow is 21-1 when he doesn’t take 5 sacks since mid-2021. He is 1-8 when taking 5+ sacks.

OT Preview: The Bengals also lost some key starters in the secondary and I do not like the replacements they added. First-round pick DE Myles Murphy is also unlikely to make a big impact off the bench this year.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

365Scores Preview: If Washington was the NFC team that changed my mind a bit during the preseason, the Steelers are that team in the AFC after the starting offense went 5-for-5 in scoring touchdowns in August. Now watch them be a bottom 3 scoring team in September, because the NFL is like that sometimes. But this preview looks at the chances of Kenny Pickett overcoming his coaching to have a breakout 2nd season.

BMR Preview: The history is not great for Pickett, but the offensive core is so young and talented that it may be able to overcome Matt Canada, the returning OC who has gone all 35 games of his career without once getting this offense to 400 yards in any game. But George Pickens could be ready to make a huge leap too in Year 2, and the offense was elite on third down after the bye last year.

OT Preview: The schedule is not so front-loaded brutal like it was last year when the Steelers started 2-6. But with Pickett and Pickens no longer rookies, T.J. Watt back healthy, and Mike Tomlin always finding a way to not have a losing season, I think the Steelers improve enough in a deep division to get to 10 wins. Is that enough for the playoffs? Scroll down.

4. Cleveland Browns (8-9)

365Scores Preview: I look at how Deshaun Watson underperformed last year and how he is no longer a top 8 quarterback in the AFC, which is absolutely what the Browns need him to be if they are going to go over 9.5 wins. Frankly, I think this is one of the easiest unders this year. The division is tough, and Cleveland has finished behind Pittsburgh in every season since 1990. That’s to say nothing about the Super Bowl contenders in Baltimore and Cincinnati.

BMR Preview: The Browns were 1-1 against each division rival last year, but they also beat the Steelers without Kenny Pickett and T.J. Watt, beat the Bengals without Ja’Marr Chase, and beat the Ravens without Lamar Jackson. Is that going to happen again for them? Doubtful.

OT Preview: In this one I give a shot out to how Jacoby Brissett played the best ball of his career last year in a tough situation, knowing he was keeping the seat warm for someone like Watson. I also acknowledge some of the reasons the Browns performed worse in Watson’s starts, including the defenses faced and the weather. But there is no excuse for him in 2023 to not play better. He was every bit as bad as Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson were on their new teams last year.

NFC NORTH

1. Detroit Lions (9-8)

365Scores Preview: The Lions are outright favorites in a division for the first time since 1982. It did not go well then, nor did it go well in 1992 when they were co-favorites with Chicago. But for all the talk I made about not liking this team to improve much, I still ended up with 9-8 and a division title this time. The rest of the division has a lot of uncertainty to it. But this preview has an interesting study on teams who start 1-6 and get to 8-9 wins and how they did the following year. A poor start followed by a hot finish is no guarantee of success the next year.

BMR Preview: Another theme in my Detroit previews was looking at their draft class and how they may not have gotten the best positional value. A lot of the moves should be marginal upgrades, especially at running back where D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams had big production last year.

OT Preview: You know what could make the defense much better? Aidan Hutchinson improving to DPOY-caliber play in his second season. I like him as a dark horse for that award (+3000 odds).

2. Minnesota Vikings (8-9)

365Scores Preview: Regression is always the buzzword with the Vikings this year after going 11-0 in close games with 8 4QC/GWD (tied NFL record). Writing previews for this team was fun because they really did have one of the most entertaining seasons in NFL history last year. But 13-4 was a mirage and they will regress in close games this year to fall back to Kirk Cousins’ typical .500 range.

BMR Preview: But I was worried that I may have been leaning too hard on the regression bet as my original picks had the Vikings at 6-11 before I beefed it up to 8-9. When I saw the Vikings playing a team that lost a lot of close games last year (Raiders, Broncos come to mind), I immediately turned to regression and gave the Vikings a loss this year. It’s not like the offense will suddenly suck even if they lost Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen. They still have Justin Jefferson and I like the pick of Jordan Addison. Just get someone in his head to not go speeding at night unless he wants to be the next Henry Ruggs. But Cousins is one of the few NFC quarterbacks who can say he is a proven passer that can stay healthy for a full season. That is an advantage for this team.

OT Preview: But the defense let go of so many veterans that Brian Flores is going to see his bend-but-don’t-break style of defense break often this year. But can 8-9 still be enough for the playoffs in a weak, top-heavy conference like this NFC? Scroll down.

3. Green Bay Packers (8-9)

365Scores Preview: I have a table in here that shows how hard it is to replace a legendary quarterback as even Aaron Rodgers was 6-10 (with a bunch of close losses in 2008) in his first year as a starter. But I trust Matt LaFleur to make this work to get at least the same record as last year when Rodgers was at his worst with the broken thumb. I’m intrigued by Love and thought he looked good in the preseason, if that ever matters.

BMR Preview: The Packers have a ton of young skill players around Love, so they are going to grow together if this works out. They can lean on the veteran backfield, and the defense was the best of a lousy bunch in this division last year.

OT Preview: I am not picking the Packers for the playoffs, but I think they have a shot since the division does not look like it will produce a 10-win team to me. If Love is legit, then this could be very interesting as the Lions already swept the Packers last year with Rodgers. It’s not like his absence is going to help Detroit get even better this year, so the division games should be crucial in figuring out who wins this open division.

Definitely going to be weird to think about the Packers without Favre or Rodgers.

4. Chicago Bears (7-10)

365Scores Preview: I may have done more research on the Bears than any other team this season in writing these previews. What I wanted to look at was how much a team can improve in one year when it ranked dead last in points allowed and in net yards per pass attempt on offense (Bears were 32nd at NY/A on defense too). Results are in here, but the Bears were only the 4th team to finish last in both since 1970. I also looked at teams who ranked in the bottom quarter of the league in both, and almost every team to improve made big changes the 2023 Bears did not.

BMR Preview: That’s the other issue I have with the Bears having a breakout year. They kept the same HC, OC, DC, and QB. The teams that really improved changed at least one of those and usually multiple. The Bears drafted a right tackle and added D.J. Moore and a pass rusher (Ngakoue) who will bail after this season. I look in this link at the fluky YAC plays Moore made this preseason that are unlikely to translate to the regular season. He is not a transformative talent like Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, or Stefon Diggs.

OT Preview: Thanks to Josh Allen, every quarterback who is not good for two years is going to have hope in Year 3, but I’m not sold on Fields as a legitimate passer. He is already one of the most dynamic rushing quarterbacks ever but passing wins games as the 2022 Bears proved with their 3-14 record. The Bears may still have the worst passer in the NFC North.

PLAYOFFS

Once I went through the schedule and made sure things added up to 272 wins, there were very few manual adjustments. I mostly just wanted to make sure Arizona had the worst record and no team was going to win more than 13 games this year.

AFC

  • 1. Baltimore (13-4)
  • 2. Buffalo (12-5)
  • 3. Kansas City (12-5)
  • 4. Jacksonville (10-7)
  • 5. NY Jets (12-5)
  • 6. Cincinnati (11-5)
  • 7. Pittsburgh (10-7)

Yes, I have Buffalo winning in Kansas City again in December, setting it up for the Chiefs to have to go on the road once they complete a sweep of the Bengals in the wild card round to even things at 3-3 (2-1 in the playoffs) in that rivalry. You got on the wrong horse, Orlando.

The Steelers have a good year but lose in Buffalo, the site of Kenny Pickett’s first start last year. The Jets stifle the Jaguars on the road, setting up a Jets-Ravens matchup in the divisional round while the Chiefs go to Buffalo for a change. While people think Rodgers vs. Mahomes is going to be the title game, it’s a surprise as the home teams hold court, setting up Bills at Ravens in the AFC Championship Game.

If you saw me tweeting stats like that at 3 AM, you should have expected this prediction. Lamar Jackson shakes off an MVP snub and the Ravens hang onto the lead this time, sending them back to their first Super Bowl since the 2012 season.

NFC

  • 1. Philadelphia (12-5)
  • 2. San Francisco (12-5)
  • 3. New Orleans (12-5)
  • 4. Detroit (9-8)
  • 5. Dallas (12-5)
  • 6. Atlanta (9-8)
  • 7. Minnesota (8-9)

Honestly, I’m not sure if the Vikings secured the right tie-breakers, but I’d rather see them get a shot in San Francisco instead of the Seahawks again. The 49ers should still win that game with ease.

Not only was the schedule a blessing for the Saints and Falcons in the regular season to get this far, but now they get another game against each other in the wild card. What the hell? I’m feeling generous, so I’ll give Derek Carr a playoff win. But he’ll get exposed by the San Francisco defense the following week.

After the Cowboys enter on a little losing slump, the Lions are feeling like they can get revenge for 2014. Their last playoff win in 1991 was also against Dallas, so maybe the stars are aligning. However, this is my retribution story for Dallas this season, and they win this game, setting up a rematch with the top-seeded Eagles.

We come to learn that things look pretty favorable in this rivalry to Dallas when Dak Prescott is at quarterback, and he outplays Hurts in an upset win on the road to finally end the streak of not getting to the NFC Championship Game since the 1995 season.

Always a bridesmaid, the 49ers again lose the title game for the third year in a row, and this time Dallas takes what it learned in the Week 5 matchup and puts it to good use in upsetting the 49ers and avenging the last two postseasons to return to the Super Bowl. The revisionist history on Mike McCarthy, who can become the first coach to win a Super Bowl with two teams (and winning all road playoff games), is absolutely spectacular for two weeks.

SUPER BOWL LVIII

I may be breaking some of my rules for Super Bowl picks here, but at least it is still a No. 1 seed against a team that was in the final 8 last year with an elite offense and defense. But the Ravens prevail and hang onto this lead after Prescott and McCarthy blow the final drive again, giving sports media enough material for the whole offseason.

Baltimore 28, Dallas 24 (Super Bowl MVP: Lamar Jackson)

This technically would break the Five-Year Rule where no team has won its first Super Bowl with a head coach starting the same quarterback for more than 5 years. This is Year 6 for Harbaugh and Jackson. But you know that rule is going to be broken someday, and why not let it be broken by a former MVP with his best offensive cast, a better offensive coordinator, and is it really 5 years when his last two seasons ended prematurely in December at a time the Ravens were in first place in the AFC North? This exception to the rule would at least be logical.

Now I expect a season where the results are anything but logical, so follow along with me as I cover my 13th season.

TL;DR Version: Last season was crazy. This season could be nuttier with so many new quarterbacks. But I’m going back to an old pick and taking the Ravens over Cowboys while still thinking Buffalo has a shot to redeem itself too. Oh, and since his name has not shown up once in 10,350 words, a happy retirement shoutout to one Tom Brady:

A season without Brady?

NFL Stat Oddity: Super Bowl LVII

After a season filled with low-scoring island games, the 2022 NFL season finished with a very good 38-35 Super Bowl that may have been one fewer flag away from an instant top five classic. Either way, Super Bowl LVII made history as the first Super Bowl where both teams scored at least 35 points.

It also rewrote the standard again for what kind of teams we can expect to win a Super Bowl, and no surprise that is thanks to Patrick Mahomes, who went home with MVP honors after throwing three touchdowns and making very few mistakes.

  • It took 57 years, but Mahomes is the first quarterback to lead the league in passing yards and win the Super Bowl in the same season.
  • Mahomes is the first quarterback since Kurt Warner (1999 Rams) to win MVP, first-team All Pro, and Super Bowl MVP in the same season. MVPs were on an 0-9 Super Bowl run and first-team All-Pro quarterbacks were 0-8 before Mahomes’ win.
  • The Chiefs join the 2006 Colts and 2011 Giants as the only teams since 1989 (and likely ever) to win a Super Bowl with a defense ranked lower than 15th in points per drive allowed. The Chiefs were No. 21 this year and won this game despite allowing 35 points on 10 drives.
  • Mahomes won this Super Bowl with a cap hit of 17% this season – the previous high for a Super Bowl-winning quarterback was Steve Young (13.1%) on the 1994 49ers, the beginning of the cap era.
  • The 2022 Chiefs are just one of seven Super Bowl winners to have a minus-3 or worse turnover differential in the regular season. But they were plus-4 in the playoffs.
  • The 2022 Chiefs are the first defense to win a Super Bowl after allowing 30 touchdown passes in the regular season. They allowed 33, four more than any other defense this year.

But in winning 38-35, the Chiefs did it their way. Jalen Hurts is now 15-2 when he leads the Eagles to at least 27 points, and both losses are to Mahomes, a f’n unicorn who just solidified himself this weekend as a first-ballot Hall of Famer with two Super Bowl MVPs and two MVP awards in his first six seasons. The only other two quarterbacks to do that needed 11 (Tom Brady) or 12 (Joe Montana) seasons to achieve it.

For the fourth time in the last nine Super Bowls, we had a team come back to win after trailing by double digits in the second half. That happened zero times in the first 48 Super Bowls.

I’d call it your classic Chiefs comeback against the front-running Eagles, akin to Super Bowl LIV against the 49ers, but this game was actually quite different. But by and large, this was a Kansas City script with a couple plot twists along the way.

This season in Stat Oddity:

The Least Valuable Player: The Turf

Before we get into the recap, the worst part of the game was the field surface in Arizona. If they really spent so much time and money growing this grass, then it was a waste as players were slipping all night. It did not really affect the outcome, and ultimately the game still had 73 points, but it sure would have been nice to see a better playing surface for the biggest game of the year.

This stadium has hosted some great big games, and god knows the Cardinals aren’t using it much in January and February, so when they bring the Super Bowl back to Arizona, hopefully the field will be better than this.

The First Quarter: Early Fireworks

Right from the start this was looking like an explosive Super Bowl with both offenses scoring a touchdown with their go-to players getting it done with Jalen Hurts on the QB sneak and Travis Kelce on a well-designed 18-yard route.

But you did also see some big hits, which became common in this game too. There was a lot of quality play all around, but an offensive pass interference penalty short-circuited the Eagles’ second possession for the first punt of the night.

So much for Mahomes and Kelce not being healthy, because the duo hooked up for a quick 60 yards on two drives to start the game. Kelce had just 23 yards against the Eagles last year, but you could throw that result out the window in this one as he still found ways to get wide open early.

But the Eagles would do a better job after those first three catches, and they also did a good job of holding down most of the other receivers on the night. Just enough pressure on Mahomes nearly forced an interception on a third down, but the Chiefs settled for a 42-yard field goal instead of going for a fourth-and-3.

This was probably Andy Reid’s biggest mistake of the night as the Eagles have been the more aggressive team and probably would have gone for that fourth down. Harrison Butker hit the left upright with his kick as he can often do on lower-pressure plays, and there went a golden opportunity for Kansas City’s first lead as the game went into the second quarter tied 7-7.

The Second Quarter: Eagles Do Their Thing

Over four months ago I was pointing out how historic the 2022 Eagles were in the second quarter. But even when the team was 6-0, I thought it was odd how they dominated that one quarter so much while not being special in the other three.

At 8-0, the Eagles had scored 133 points in the second quarter, the most points any team has had in any quarter through eight games in NFL history. This is why the Eagles were the third team since the 1970 merger to not trail in its first eight games. But this was clearly not going to sustainable. Would it be fatal down the stretch in a tight game and when the Eagles faced a legitimate quarterback for a change?

By season’s end, the Eagles were +116 in the second quarter and just +17 in the other three quarters combined. I did not think that was a good formula for the Chiefs, who we know can come back with the best of them.

But the second quarter was both as good as it got for the Eagles and a costly one as one huge mistake would haunt them.

The Eagles started their favorite quarter with Hurts taking a chance deep to A.J. Brown, and what looked like it may lead to defensive pass interference actually just laid in perfectly to the receiver for a 45-yard touchdown bomb.

The Chiefs went three-and-out after JuJu Smith-Schuster was clearly interfered with on third-and-8, but there was no penalty for some reason. More on that later.

After Hurts converted a third-and-8 with a brilliant scramble move, he really looked like the ultimate dual threat who was having a great game in his first Super Bowl. But then came the moment where the Eagles may have blown this one. One thing the team really struggled with all night was running the ball with the trio of backs, who combined for just 17 carries for 45 yards. If you thought Miles Sanders sucked against the Chiefs last year with 7 carries for 13 yards, he only had 7 carries for 16 yards in this one.

But on a second-and-1, it was Kenneth Gainwell who was stopped short to bring up third-and-1. No worries, the team who has turned the quarterback sneak into an even bigger cheat code would pick it up with ease. But that doesn’t happen when you get penalized for a false start as the timing was off for the Eagles. Huge mistake. On third-and-medium, Hurts tried a quarterback draw, but he just lost the ball on an unforced error, and Nick Bolton was there for the 36-yard scoop and score to tie the game.

It is so hard to win a Super Bowl when your offense coughs up a turnover for a touchdown, and that is the third time this season the Eagles did that in a game they went on to lose. The other time they just had four turnovers against Dallas, but this ended up being the only turnover in the whole game.

I was curious to see how Hurts responded to that blunder, but he did a great job and used his legs well to convert a ballsy fourth-and-5 with a 28-yard run by slipping a tackle. He also got another fourth-down conversion by drawing the Chiefs offsides in the red zone. The drive fittingly ended with Hurts running in his second touchdown on a successful draw to take a 21-14 lead with 2:20 left.

This was the part of the game in Super Bowl LV where the Chiefs really blew it against Tampa Bay. They had to answer here but it was another bad drive with Mahomes scrambling on a third down and apparently aggravating his ankle injury. He looked to be grimacing in pain much worse than he did when he initially had the injury against Jacksonville, and it was much worse than the third quarter against the Bengals when he tweaked it.

Chad Henne was apparently warming up, and this just felt like the Eagles catching another break with an injured quarterback. The Chiefs had the ball for just 8:06 in the first half as the Eagles dominated with long drives while Kansas City really did not show a lot after that hot opening drive. That makes 16 points for the offense in the last six quarters of Super Bowl action.

Things were looking poor for the Chiefs after getting outscored 17-7 in the quarter, and it could have been much worse without Hurts’ unforced error. It also would be nice if DeVonta Smith can make a cleaner catch down the sideline after his 35-yard grab was overturned to incomplete after a lengthy review. I can understand why they overturned it, but I was still surprised that they thought the evidence was conclusive enough to overturn the call on the field of a 35-yard catch.

That was a big reversal as it led to only a field goal and 24-14 lead for the Eagles at halftime. Still, this was looking like a Philadelphia script with an injured Mahomes even if the pass rush in this game was minimized.

Rihanna > Beyonce, forever and always, but moving onto the second half.

The Third Quarter: Here Come the Chiefs

With a half-hour halftime and Mr. White in the house to inject Mahomes with some Crystal Blue Persuasion, the MVP was able to return to the game and still looked good. The run game was also looking good for the Chiefs again, and Mahomes even took a play himself 14 yards after it looked like the Eagles were surprised he could still move like that.

Two plays later, Isiah Pacheco was in the end zone for a touchdown, and we had a game again at 24-21.

On the ensuing drive, Bolton thought he had another fumble touchdown, but the refs got the call right of a bang-bang play and no catch, no fumble for Sanders and the Eagles. What ensued was another painfully long drive with some incredible completions from Hurts to Dallas Goedert, including a third-and-14 conversion that took forever to review, but they got the call right as it was a catch this time.

The quarterback sneak worked for another fourth-and-1 for the Eagles, and this 7:45 drive was threatening to put the Eagles back up 10, but the pass defense stepped up and made a stop. The Eagles had a couple fourth downs already converted, and I was surprised that Nick Sirianni did not go for a fourth-and-6 at the Kansas City 15, understanding how much more valuable a 10-point lead is instead of 6 vs. 3.

But the Eagles settled for the 33-yard field goal and a 27-21 lead despite taking half the quarter with that drive. You can say Sirianni coached a pretty good Super Bowl when his biggest mistake in three quarters was not going for a fourth-and-6.

But with the Chiefs driving towards midfield, you could see where this one was heading.

The Fourth Quarter: Chiefs Do It Again

This postseason has sucked ass for drama, but maybe we would get something good here as it was the 18th Super Bowl in the last 20 years to be within one score in the fourth quarter. This postseason’s only fourth-quarter lead change was Jaguars vs. Chargers, and that was on the final play of the game. We needed something more dramatic here, and we absolutely got it.

JuJu, who I loved back in Pittsburgh his first two years and not so much after, was huge on this drive as he had three straight catches to put the ball at the 9-yard line. Incredibly, Marquez Valdes-Scantling had one target and no catches in the game after being so good against the Bengals. Kadarius Toney also had no touches on offense, so the Chiefs were getting almost everything out of Kelce, JuJu, and the running game.

But on a third-and-3, the Eagles completely blew a coverage and Toney was left wide open, not unlike his first NFL touchdown with the Chiefs against Jacksonville earlier this season. Andy Reid did it again. The Chiefs made the extra point to go up 28-27 and – STOP THE COUNT – they had their first lead and a lead for the 101st time in the last 102 games.

It also meant the 2022 Chiefs are the first team to have a fourth-quarter lead in 20 games in one season. But would they hang onto it to join the 1984 49ers and 2013 Seahawks as the only teams to do it in at least 19 games and win the Super Bowl? That is exclusive company for sure.

With the Eagles unable to run, it was going to be on Hurts’ shoulders, and he does not have the track record yet in these situations. Sure enough, the Eagles went three-and-out and this thing was going all Kansas City’s way. Toney returned the ensuing punt, after a little mix-up at the beginning, for 65 yards, nearly housing it, which likely would have earned him the MVP honors for this game. But his impact was felt as it was the longest punt return in Super Bowl history.

Not bad for a Kansas City team that had its longest punt return of the season against the Bengals (by Skyy Moore) to set up their game-winning drive last game out. Now they more than doubled that with this one by Toney. Speaking of Moore, he finished off this drive with yet another blown coverage by the Eagles as he was left all alone for a 4-yard touchdown. Way too easy.

Should the Chiefs have gone for two at 9:22 left? I think it was a little early to get the full benefit of that one, but I fully understand the argument by doing it. Still, it was 35-27 and this is out of the Eagles’ comfort zone.

However, when the QB sneak has been unstoppable all night, and the slants to Brown are open all night, the Eagles quickly moved the ball. Smith got wide open for a 45-yard bomb that if thrown a little better, he would have walked in for a touchdown. But on the next play, Hurts set a Super Bowl record with his third rushing touchdown at the quarterback position, giving him a record 18 for the season. He even finished the drive off with the game-tying two-point conversion as the league may have to interfere with the rule book to stop the Eagles’ dominance in short yardage. No more push sneaks in the near future? We’ll see.

But we were all tied up at 35 with 5:15 left. With the leaked script (read: a funny meme that some take too seriously) calling for a 37-34 win by the Eagles, you may have had it in the back of your mind that maybe the Chiefs screw this up after three straight touchdowns and the Eagles do win this one on a last-second field goal for a 38-35 win. The internet would go ape shit over that.

But no, Mahomes really is just different. He found Kelce for another catch that allowed him to hit his over (81 yards) by two yards, which cost me $700 in parlay wins, but no sour grapes here. Kelce now has nine straight games in the playoffs with over 75 receiving yards, three more than anybody else. Pacheco was able to convert the ensuing third-and-1 for a 10-yard gain.

Then came a definitive play. Mahomes scrambled right down the middle of the field for a 26-yard gain, looking pretty spry in the process and putting the Chiefs in field goal range. The rest of this drive was going to be very interesting strategy as the Eagles had three clock stoppages left, and the Chiefs could not afford to give them the ball back in a 38-35 game with nearly two full minutes left. Not after how easy the Eagles scored on the last drive.

The Chiefs even screwed this up with conservative play. A screen to JuJu gained nothing and brought up third-and-8. Mahomes just kind of lobbed one towards the end zone for JuJu on third down, which would have saved the Eagles’ last timeout, but there came the flag. Defensive holding on James Bradberry. Automatic first down.

I get why they called it, but I have to agree with FOX’s Greg Olsen. That is a very soft call on a night where the refs were swallowing the whistle. Bradberry tugged on the jersey, but the throw was also way off from the receiver, and I don’t think it was restrictive enough to say it drastically altered the play for the Chiefs. They got bailed out of a bad sequence with that call, and now the game was going to have a shit ending because the Chiefs were just going to set up the field goal.

For all the talk about referee Carl Cheffers screwing the Chiefs over in the past, his crew called just 3 penalties for 14 yards on the Chiefs in this game. He had gone 12 straight games calling at least 92 yards worth of penalties on both teams in Kansas City games, and 12 straight where the Chiefs had over 47.5 penalty yards.

So this was a surprise, and worse, there were just three penalties in the game on post-snap action, and they were all on the Eagles. The other six penalties were all your pre-snap things like false start, delay of game, neutral zone infraction, and offsides.

The refs tried to stay out of the story this week, but they had a huge impact on how this game would end. The part that pisses me off the most is how can they justify not calling the DPI on the Eagles on a JuJu coverage play on third down in the second quarter, but then they call this ticky tack crap? This inconsistency is what drives people nuts.

The Eagles did the right thing by offering the touchdown to the Chiefs, but Jerick McKinnon was wise to go down in bounds short of the end zone. Mahomes ended up taking two knees for minus-7 yards, meaning the Chiefs had 165 rushing yards before that happened. That is another big running day against the Eagles, who had their biggest statistical weakness at stopping the run this year (24th in yards per carry allowed), and last year the Chiefs ran for 200 yards on them for just the second time in the Mahomes era. This was another outstanding running day when you consider the Chiefs only had eight drives to score their 31 points. The Chiefs only had the ball for 24:13 and still scored 38 points. The only other time that has happened in the playoffs was when Andrew Luck led a 38-10 comeback against Reid’s 2013 Chiefs in a 45-44 win despite having the ball for 22:27.

For the anticlimactic finish, Butker just had to not go Blair Walsh and make a 27-yard field goal. He did it, and the Chiefs led 38-35 with 8 seconds left.

The Eagles returned the squib kick 11 yards before Gainwell gave himself up. Six seconds were eventually put back on the clock after it went down to 4 seconds, but either the Eagles didn’t seem to realize that, or they just blew the situation. There was no way Hurts could throw a Hail Mary over 65 yards with his shoulder injury, so the call should have been a quick pass to the sideline to get closer, or you do the laterals. Instead, Hurts held the ball and just threw a duck well short of the end zone and to no one in particular to end the game.

Conclusion

The Chiefs did it. Lesser defense filled with rookies, QB taking up 17% of the cap, injured skill players – none of it mattered. They also won this as a team as Mahomes’ 182 passing yards are tied for his fifth fewest in a game. He got the big run support, he got the fumble return touchdown, and he got the longest punt return in Super Bowl history. Mahomes was the right call to win Super Bowl MVP for making very few mistakes all night and still leading the offense to 31 points on eight drives with a missed field goal, but he still won this with the kind of team support we usually don’t see behind an MVP in a big game like this.

For the Eagles, it is a letdown for sure. I can say Hurts has still never beat a good quarterback on a good team in the NFL, but this game raised my respect for him. The fumble was an unfortunate blunder, but those happen. Mahomes just did it against the Bengals two weeks ago. Hurts was leading the MVP race most of the night as his run game and defense severely let him down as the 70-sack defense proved to be a paper tiger in the end. They were rarely tested this year, and when they faced the Chiefs, they folded with no sacks, very little pressure, and those blown coverages in the red zone are inexcusable.

Incredibly, the Eagles (70) and Chiefs (55) led the NFL in sacks this year with 125 between them, yet the only two in this game were on scramble plays where Hurts twice ran out of bounds for a small loss. Not even legitimate sacks in my view.

Mahomes got the ball off in 2.69 seconds on average according to Next Gen Stats. He is now 47-4 when he gets the ball out in under 2.9 seconds, so this game was above average for his release time even if it wasn’t quite the 2.32 seconds from last year’s meeting.

To close a week where we celebrated LeBron James breaking the NBA’s all-time scoring record that lasted almost 40 years, we just witnessed another great achievement for Mahomes in winning a Super Bowl with this team. It is not quite up to the level of LeBron knocking off the 73-9 Warriors, but to overcome all the negative perceptions of this team being too inexperienced, too pass happy, too imbalanced, and too injured, this is a big deal. I agree with Mahomes that this win means even more than 2019 did for him.

There is a long offseason ahead to be talking about their chances at ending the repeat drought, and Philadelphia’s chances at getting right back to this game as the NFC is not the toughest path right now.

But I am going to let this one marinate, go up to bed in a good mood as it’s always an easier offseason when the Super Bowl goes the way you wanted it to, and this is the end of my 12th season covering the NFL. I would say I look forward to the break from football, but I am scheduled for multiple XFL and NBA pieces this week, so it looks like I will be keeping busy for the next six months until we do it all over again for the 2023 NFL season.

Unless the aliens get past our space lasers.

NFL Super Bowl LVII Preview: Chiefs vs. Eagles

I guess I got one more Super Bowl preview left in me. This is the only place where I post my final score prediction, but it has been a long two weeks to get to this point. I don’t know how many times I wrote about the oddities of 42-30 from last year’s meeting, or why I love Jalen Hurts as a touchdown scorer who might even do it on The Philly Special II, or why the referees (Carl Cheffers) are worth betting on for a flag fest.

Seriously, play those penalty props wherever you can find them (over in total yards, over in Kansas City penalty yards):

But unlike the last round where I ended up changing both my picks from Sunday to Saturday to the Chiefs and Eagles winning, I have not moved on this game.

The Eagles should win Super Bowl LVII, but the Chiefs certainly can pull it off.

This is already the third Super Bowl for Patrick Mahomes, the two-time MVP, and once again he goes up against the best pass defense he could from the NFC. Argue all you want about the 49ers being a better overall defense than the Eagles, but Mahomes already shredded that unit in Week 7.

I feel like I’m just going to keep recycling my old Mahomes Super Bowl content for these matchups.

Teams like the Eagles usually beat teams like the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, but what if Mahomes is just different? I wrote that from scratch, but after checking, yep, I pretty much wrote this already about Super Bowl LIV against the 49ers:

There are a lot of areas that favor the 49ers, and I think historically the 49ers are the type of team more likely to win this game than a team like the Chiefs. There are just more ways for the 49ers to win while practically every positive outcome for Kansas City involves Mahomes playing really well. 

Defense wins championships. Football teams are built in the trenches. Hyped QB matchups usually disappoint in the Super Bowl. That’s what I’d write about Chiefs vs. Eagles, and that’s also probably what I wrote about Chiefs vs. Buccaneers two years ago in Super Bowl LV. Oh look, I did.

Defense wins championships. Football games are decided in the trenches. Overhyped quarterback matchups tend to disappoint.

This is why I really do see Super Bowl LVII as a game that will either be like Chiefs-49ers where Mahomes and the offense figure it out in the 4Q to win or at least make it a 3-4 point game/tight finish, or it is going to be another blowout like Chiefs-Buccaneers where the pass rush is all over the QB on the injured ankle and the secondary is all over the injured receivers and shut downs Travis Kelce again.

Tale as old as time, right?

I’ve said this year that the Eagles are a team that’s dying to blow a 14 or 17-point lead in the playoffs after a dominant first half. Maybe the offense goes into turtle mode. Maybe the famed QB push sneak they’ve perfected gets stopped on a key fourth-and-1 to give the Chiefs new life. Maybe Jalen Hurts just has another off game against a young defense has has showed some improvement down the stretch.

The problem I have in this game is that it really takes Philadelphia uncharacteristically screwing up (like a turnover party) for the Chiefs to probably win. Otherwise, it is going to have to be a Mahomes masterclass, and I’m just not sure the offense is healthy or talented enough for him to do that in this matchup. The Eagles holding Kelce to 23 yards and holding everyone not named Tyreek Hill (186 yards) under 25 yards last year bugs me, because they’ve only gotten better in the pass rush and secondary with the additions of Haason Reddick and James Bradberry. Not to mention AJ. Brown on offense, who crushed the Chiefs in the last time the Chiefs were blown out (27-3 against the Titans last year).

In fact, there is so much history on the line in this game, and that’s why I want to get to my links because I wrote about it all (multiple times) the last two weeks. I’ll obviously recap what did and did not happen in the final Stat Oddity of the season tomorrow night, but let’s get to all the Super Bowl links I feel like sharing.

My Super Bowl Content:

Final Super Bowl LVII Prediction

I would love nothing more than a high-scoring, close Super Bowl that is an instant classic. Maybe it’s a 27-24 game (or 37-34 if you saw the leaked script, wink wink nudge nudge). Hopefully we get an 18th Super Bowl in the last 20 that is within one score in the fourth quarter.

But a lot of times these Super Bowls disappoint. Just look at two of the last four years when we had 13-3 and 31-9, two games where a team didn’t even score a touchdown. This 2022 NFL season has been filled with disappointing and low-scoring island games. The playoffs have been very disappointing as the only game with a fourth-quarter lead change was Chargers-Jaguars, and even that happened on the final snap so we couldn’t see how the Chargers would answer.

We really need something great to end this season on a high note, and I just don’t see it here. I think the Eagles revert to the team they were during the 8-0 start, meaning a dominant second quarter before they settle in the range of 21-to-29 points, and I’ll give the Chiefs just enough points to look respectable after last time’s embarrassment of scoring 9. But even in that game they dropped two touchdown opportunities.

I just keep coming back to the difference in the trenches, the difference in health at the skill players, the depth of the Eagles, and the way they aren’t afraid to go for fourth downs. I can’t even trust the Chiefs to convert a third-and-1 this year, and I sure don’t expect them to QB sneak it on fourth-and-1. Throw in the Carl Cheffers, Chiefs nemesis, angle at referee, and the Chiefs might be getting the short end of the stick there too.

I think it will look closer to Chiefs-49ers than Chiefs-Buccaneers, because Hurts doesn’t have that LOAT edge like Tom Brady. But if Chad Henne plays a significant role in this game, I’ll immediately change my mind on that. But I think it’s closer to Chiefs-49ers, and maybe this time Mahomes just doesn’t have Hill to convert a third-and-15 to. The roster weakness they covered up so well all year ultimately comes back to bite them in the Super Bowl against the No. 1 pass defense after too many injuries sustained in the last two playoff games. That’d be a damn shame, but it’s what I see happening in this one.

Forgive me if I rushed through this preview and it’s not as neatly organized and in depth like they used to be for the Super Bowl, but when you’re writing for four sites for 13 days about this one game, you just want to get to kickoff tomorrow at 6:30. I’m wiped out.

I cannot promise a good game tomorrow night, but I can promise a worthy recap to put it in its rightful place in history. But let’s hope I’m wrong I’m on this one.

Final: Eagles 27, Chiefs 20 (Super Bowl MVP: Haason Reddick)