Tag: Patrick Mahomes

NFL Week 1 Predictions: The Brady vs. Mahomes Slander (Plus Awards) Edition

~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

For a yearly tradition, I dropped my super long NFL season predictions and forgot to make my award predictions until Saturday. So, you are getting season awards picks, Week 1 picks & betting analysis, and a quasi-Close Encounters recap of Lions-Chiefs with a factual retort of some Tom Brady nonsense that popped up one game into his retirement.

NFL 2023 Award Predictions

I am not going to let Thursday night change my choices as I have been on the record all summer of saying I’m not on Patrick Mahomes winning back-to-back MVPs nor do I like Jahmyr Gibbs for OROY. My Aidan Hutchinson darkhorse DPOY did however not get off to a great start. But these are the picks I’m feeling okay about:

  • MVP: Aaron Rodgers, Jets
  • OPOY: Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals
  • DPOY: T.J. Watt, Steelers
  • OROY: Bijan Robinson, Falcons
  • DROY: Jalen Carter, Eagles
  • Comeback Player of the Year: Lamar Jackson, Ravens
  • Coach of the Year: Sean Payton, Broncos
  • Assistant Coach of the Year: Todd Monken, Ravens OC

If you saw my Super Bowl pick of the Ravens, you’ll understand the Monken selection and hopefully the Lamar Jackson one, who I have staying healthy this year. We can have the Damar Hamlin discourse another day.

I think the MVP is going to an AFC quarterback for sure, but I also think the top trio of Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow may not be worth your bet. I’d sooner choose from Rodgers, Lamar, Justin Herbert, and even the Florida guys (Tua and Trevor Lawrence). Maybe this will start to make more sense when you see my Week 1 picks.

NFL Week 1 Predictions

Welp, already taking a loss after the Chiefs played one of their worst games of the Mahomes era. More on that one below.

I was going underdogs early before taking the favorites late. Again, I spent the 2023 preview intro talking about uncertainty this year, so we will start to learn things this weekend like if Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, and Jordan Love are for real, if the Rams and Cardinals are going to be truly terrible in the NFC West, and if the Vikings are going to shit their pants in close games after going 11-0 last regular season.

But my surprise headline for Week 1, and this is cheating with 33.3% of the results in, is that Mahomes, Burrow, and Allen all lose in Week 1, signifying the deep AFC competition may be for real. The 2022 NFL season we were supposed to get is happening a year later in 2023.

I also love the Steelers as a Week 1 upset pick over the 49ers.

Sam Howell over 1.5 TD passes (+154 at FanDuel) is one of my favorite prop picks this week. He gets the awful Cardinals at home in a perfect Week 1 matchup. Plus, you can just see that headline of “Howell outshines Mahomes as Eric Bieniemy gets last laugh.” Just what we needed…

And while I know I’m the “Rodgers isn’t a good comeback QB” guy from over a decade ago, he has improved in that area, and I think he pulls one off against Buffalo to end a fun week.

In fact, here’s my new Friday column at 365Scores where I go over 7 picks I like for the weekend.

Just a couple notes before the Brady-Mahomes part.

Week 1 Rookie Quarterbacks

We get to see a trio of rookie quarterbacks start in Week 1 after there were none in 2022. Since 1998, rookie quarterbacks are just 12-20-1 in Week 1 starts. Even the list of winners, 2008 aside, is pretty uninspiring:

I would definitely bet against C.J. Stroud in Baltimore. Ravens -6.5 1H spread is one of my favorite picks this week. The other ones are division games, so there is always a chance there. In fact, that Jacksonville-Indy game has me shying away from that spread after uncovering some shocking research this week.

Week 1 Division Games

Maybe you noticed half the schedule is division games this week, but more interestingly, four teams are favored on the road (CIN at CLE, JAX at IND, DAL at NYG, and BUF at NYJ).

NFL Week 1 Road Favorites, 2009-2022:

  • Division games: 5-22 ATS (18.5%), 9-16-2 SU (37.0%)
  • Non-division games: 32-21 ATS (60.4%), 38-14-1 SU (72.6%)

Those records are shocking, but 5-22 for a spread record is insane. Now it is only 27 games over 14 seasons, so the fact that we have 4 that apply this weekend is also unusual. But in the season of uncertainty, embrace some weird shit going down. I would be very careful in leaning on those favorites this week. I think the Cowboys are the safest pick as Dak has not lost to them since his rookie season in 2016. Burrow is only 1-4 against Stefanski and has the calf injury. The AFC South has lost predictability, and you never know what a potentially volatile, high-variance player like Anthony Richardson might do in his debut. Then you have the Rodgers-Allen game on Monday night.

Should be fun stuff.

Even When the Chiefs Lose, Mahomes Looks Better Than Your Fake GOAT Did

If I can make it over 10,350 words of a season preview before mentioning Tom Brady’s name once, why can’t his cult-like following make it more than one game after his retirement before they have Patrick Mahomes’ name in their mouth again?

Insecure much?

In watching Kansas City lose 21-20 to the Lions on Thursday night, I certainly didn’t think it was the kind of game or performance that people would use to prop up Brady over Mahomes. The Lions deserved to win, especially after the horrible short-yardage calls the Chiefs had in the 2nd half. But it was a game where you’d make a mental note that Travis Kelce and Chris Jones, the team’s 2nd and 3rd-best players, were out. There is a considerable drop when you compare the top 3 Chiefs to the other 50 players. The defense was decent without Jones, but his presence could have did something to affect Goff on some of those clean, easy throws to his wideouts that drove the passing offense for the Lions. Kelce’s impact is even more obvious, and a Tuesday injury before a Thursday game was a tough break on short notice.

I said back in July that the Chiefs could have the worst receiver situation in the NFL if there is a Kelce injury or drop-off in his play and they have to rely on this WR group. I’ve been down on Kadarius Toney for months.

But it was still shocking how badly Toney played Thursday night. No one did more to lose that game than him. He dropped a perfect pass and turned it into a pick-six in the third quarter, Kansas City’s only turnover. He was unable to catch a 3rd-and-short pass in traffic that led to a FG. He lost a yard on a 2nd-and-1 run that led to another short FG. Then after the Lions went for a 4th down at midfield because they were still too worried to give Mahomes the ball back, Toney dropped another great throw that would have had the Chiefs near the 30 and in game-winning field goal range. At that point it would be on kicker Harrison Butker. But Toney dropped it as his confidence was already shot.

Almost as bad, Mahomes had another dagger on the very next play, but that was called back for holding. On 2nd-and-20, he threw a pass that should have got about half of what they needed, but Skyy Moore, the other bum of the night, dropped that one too. Then you get into desperate times on 3rd-and-20, then you end up with 4th-and-25 after Jawaan Taylor finally got a false start after flirting with penalties all night. At this point, the smartest thing the Chiefs could have did was quickly run out of bounds at their own 9, forcing the Lions to score 8 points to end the game, or give the Chiefs the ball back with time in a one-possession game. It’s the kind of situation no one’s ever really thought about, but this is what happens when you’re in no man’s land on 4th-and-20+ and know you can’t trust your defense to get that 3-and-out. Maybe we’ll see this come up later this season, but a team would have to be choking like a dog to get to 4th-and-25 with dropped passes and penalties.

Notice I didn’t say the quarterback taking sacks or throwing wild passes when a receiver was open. Mahomes even finished with a higher QBR (72.5) than Goff (64.2) according to ESPN. I didn’t even call out the direct snap to Blake Bell that led to rookie WR Rashee Rice losing 3 yards on a 3rd-and-1 on the next to last drive — the worst call of the night.

But if you watched this game and concluded that Mahomes lost a game someone like Tom Brady would have won, then you are admitting you didn’t actually watch this game. Is he going to make Toney and Moore suddenly catch passes? Toney left a solid 10-to-17 net points on the scoreboard out there by himself. Would Brady will his defense to only give up 3 points to Jared Goff like he did in Super Bowl 53? This is now the 2nd time Mahomes has been bested by Goff late in a game after Orlando Scandrick dropped a game-clinching interception in the 54-51 game in 2018.

Mahomes may not have been great Thursday night, but he did what he had to against a division title favorite on a night the team was shorthanded. He made the kind of dagger throw he makes look easy that would have led to another night with 250 passing yards, a couple touchdowns, and the game-winning drive in a 23-21 win. But egregious drops and penalties killed that idea this time.

You know the Mahomes fatigue is setting in when people are pouncing on a game like this. That also shows how the standard is so high for Mahomes after they kept it so low for Brady for two decades. All Brady ever had to do was win and he’d get the credit no matter how ugly it looked or how little part he played in it.

This game was barely in the books before I got this reply from a random I would happily never knew existed without social media:

Very few things irk me more than a “he did more with less” line. When someone drops that one on you, chances are they are full of shit. Most of the time, they pick an example that is neither someone doing more nor having less to do it.

Brady’s 2006 season is often brought up in this context, a year where the Patriots were led in receiving by Reche Caldwell and finished 12-4 and lost in the AFC Championship Game. But what they don’t tell you is the Patriots had an elite defense that allowed no more than 21 points in 16 games that year (playoffs included), tied with legendary Super Bowl-winning defenses like the 2002 Buccaneers and 2013 Seahawks for the most such games in a season since 2002 realignment. They also had a very strong offensive line, solid running game, and all the coaching tactics (legal or otherwise) of Bill Belichick.

Sure enough, someone had to bring back a clip from 2006 when the 5-1 Patriots were playing Minnesota on MNF. Just watch this clip where Tony Kornheiser spends a minute ball-washing Brady:

If you were not following the NFL back then, this is what all the mainstream NFL media sounded like in covering Brady. You couldn’t watch a game on CBS with Phil Simms and Jim Nantz without hearing the latest “Brady record” that was always something related to a team win-loss record or some long interception-less streak that only counted the regular season because he was too busy saving his multiple red-zone picks for the playoffs back then. Sean Salisbury and the ESPN talking heads would push the “Brady Just Wins” narrative daily. Kornheiser bought into it fully here.

Then there’s the “you can’t name a receiver he plays with” narrative that picked up steam here and followed him the rest of his career no matter how ridiculous it was. This team developed some of the best slot receivers, receiving backs, and tight ends in later years while targeting countless established free agents, and someone like Deion Sanders would still go gleefully on NFL Network to say “no one knows these receivers!” Dude, it’s your job to know them.

Tight end Ben Watson was a first-round pick. Do we not know him because his most memorable play was chasing down Champ Bailey on what should have been a 100-yard pick-six thrown by Brady in the 2005 AFC divisional? Instead, the Broncos scored a 1-yard touchdown so Brady fans can blame the defense for those points allowed. My favorite Watson stat is that he had a career-high 825 yards when he was 35 years old (ancient for a TE) and Drew Brees was his QB in New Orleans. Watson had 500 yards in a season 5 times in his career, but he only did it once with Brady.

And did we just forget New England legend Troy Brown and receiving back Kevin Faulk from the Super Bowl years? Sure, Brown first had his breakout under Drew Bledsoe, and Faulk had his most productive receiving season with Matt Cassel, a high school QB, in 2008. But they were smart, heady players for that team for many years.

Watson, Brown, and Faulk were 2nd-to-4th in targets for the 2006 Patriots, by the way. Reche Caldwell was No. 1. He was a mid-2nd round pick by the Chargers who should be best known there for fumbling away a potential game-winning drive for Drew Brees. Twice even (2002 Chiefs, 2005 Eagles games). Guess Brees should have willed him better. I’d take the 2006 version of Caldwell over Toney and Moore in a heartbeat right now.

There is plenty more I can say about how nauseating the historical coverage of Brady was in 2006, but we’re one game into the 2023 season. Let’s pace ourselves. The last thing I wanted to share was something I noticed after updating Mahomes’ failed game-winning drives for which he has 16 such losses now in his career. These are games where he had the ball with a tie or 1-8 point deficit in the fourth quarter or overtime.

Brady only had 16 failed GWDs through the 2009 season, his 10th year in the league thanks to how historically great the Patriots were at making clutch field goals and shutting offenses down on defense with the game on the line. Also an incredible amount of luck, but again, let’s pace ourselves.

When you compare Mahomes’ 16 failed GWD attempts to Brady’s first 16 failed GWD attempts, it shows you one quarterback has been clutch as they come even in defeat while the other was usually a huge reason why his team lost these games.

I highlighted in green each area where the quarterback either fared better or had the more adverse situation to overcome.

I can barely express how lopsided this is, presenting Mahomes as the much better quarterback in defeat. Keep in mind I’ve been tracking games like this for 20 years now, so I saw very early on that when the Patriots lost during this time, Brady usually had awful games. Since he rarely had to experience those losses where your kicker misses at the end or the defense gives up a late score, he was severely lacking in good statistical performances in team losses. He really didn’t start adding some of those until his final decade in the NFL.

So, when people say things like “when Brady loses, it’s his fault, and when Mahomes loses, it’s everyone else’s fault”” you show them this and tell them “yes, exactly.” Because that’s usually how it goes. Do you think a QB completing under 50% of his passes, barely scraping 5.0 YPA, and a 1 TD, 10 INT ratio was being clutch?

Meanwhile, you are looking at 16 of the 20 losses in Mahomes’ career so far. This table does not include the 29-28 loss to the 2018 Chargers where the defense blew a 14-point 4Q lead with 4 seconds left as the offense did not register a possession down 29-28. The Chiefs still had the late lead in 75% of these games. Mahomes led 10 game-tying or go-ahead drives compared to just 3 for Brady.

From this table, it’s not even close.

  • Brady had 25 more passing yards but on 34 more attempts.
  • He did have a lower sack rate.
  • He did have worse starting field position, which was surprising.
  • But in terms of drives where the QB turned it over or on downs, Brady more than doubles up Mahomes at 15-7.
  • Mahomes’ field goal unit failed him twice while that happened to Brady once in his 23-year career (2012 Cardinals).
  • Brady did not have enough time to beat the 2009 Colts, a game infamous for his failure on 4th-and-2 deep in his own end that set up that finish.

But the other tied scenarios here further show how laughable this stuff really is. The 2002 Chargers loss is doing some heavy lifting for Brady with 2 appearances. In that first showdown with a young Brees, the Chargers took a 21-14 lead with 14:14 left in the 3rd quarter after LaDainian Tomlinson scored a 58-yard touchdown run.

Brady had 5 drives to answer that score and did this:

  • 3rd QT INT #1 (floated right to defender)
  • 3rd QT INT #2 in scoring range (clean pocket; didn’t even see the LB)
  • Marc Edwards stuffed on 4th & 1 at SD 39 w/12:33 left
  • A bad run call on 3rd & 10 (after 2 Brady INC) that led to a punt
  • After needing 96 yards with 1:51 and 1 timeout, Brady completed a pass to Faulk, who wanted to lateral, got blown up, fumbled, Chargers recovered ball at midfield with 8 seconds left. It was already over.

See for yourself. The funny thing is while Brady was throwing picks, his defense stopped LT on back-to-back runs with 1 yard to go on 3rd & 4th down, and blocked a 50-yd FG to keep him in a one-score game. Typical Patriots. But this was a bad game for him and the Faulk fumble was not that big.

It’s not like Faulk fumbled at the opponent’s 32 in a 36-35 game with 1:20 left, and the defense, which blew a 35-24 4Q lead, failed to get the ball back even after the opponent went for a 4th=and-1 in their own end because they were that afraid of giving Brady the ball back. That’s what Clyde Edwards-Helaire did on a fumble against the 2021 Ravens for Mahomes.

While Edwards getting stuffed on 4th & 1 hurt, there was still 12:33 left. Imagine waiting patiently for your defense to get Jacoby Brissett and the 2019 Colts off the field from a FG drive that took 8:34, and now you’re down 16-10 with 7:40 left. Your receiver gets a facemask penalty on a 1st-down catch, and now you’re in 1st-and-20, soon to be 3rd-and-28 after a shockingly bad 2-yd run on 2nd-and-30. But you find a receiver anyway and he gets 27 of the 28 yards, stopping short at the end instead of running with momentum for the first down. You hand off to the RB on 4th-and-1 and he gets stuffed. By the time you see the ball again, it’s 19-10 and you have 2:27 and no timeouts to pull off a miracle. You get the FG, but no onside kick recovery, so you lose 19-13 in one of the weirdest losses of your career.

Mahomes also threw for over 320 yards in both of those games and had one total turnover. At least that one didn’t go right off his receiver’s hands, so he is human and will make mistakes.

But if people would stop with the silly narratives and start calling these games out for what happened, start looking at how the quarterback played and how his teammates helped or hurt him, we would have a clear sense of who was the LOAT, and who was held back by his teammates from being the true GOAT.

Mahomes will be just fine, and the cult of Brady better hope the Chiefs keep making mistakes like drafting stiffs over DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, and Christian Watson. Cause when the Chiefs find the true successors to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce for the second phase of Mahomes’ career, the record books won’t be safe.

Right now, we only know the names of these Chiefs receivers because they were so spectacularly awful Thursday night. That’s the real takeaway from Game 1 of 285. Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to share this link with people who will simultaneously tell me Julian Edelman was a nobody and he should easily be in the Hall of Fame.

2023 NFL Predictions

~ Scott ~ 17 Comments

In most NFL offseasons, I come up with my Super Bowl vision for the upcoming season rather early. But this year, I really did not figure things out until a few days ago. Even then, I am not loving the pick.

As a reminder, here is my past decade of preseason predictions. One of these old Super Bowl picks is something I will reuse this year too.

My predictions were not good last year, though I guess I should have trusted my gut on the Eagles going 14-3 with an easy schedule. I also seem to follow an up-and-down pattern.

In 2021, I was better than ever, only off by an average of 1.28 wins for each team and getting 28 teams within 2 games of their final record. But last year, I was off by 2.78, tied with the 2020 COVID year for my worst, and I only had 14 teams within 2 games of their record.

Let’s just say my faith in Russell Wilson (Broncos) and Matt Ryan (Colts) working out for their AFC teams was rejected by the script writers. My vision for Buffalo being the team to beat worked out for most of the year, but after the Von Miller injury and the traumatic Damar Hamlin experience, the Bills looked emotionally wiped out by the time they lost (with ease) to the Bengals in the divisional round.

But I think choosing this year’s theme is easy and can be summed up in one word: Uncertainty.

Sure, Super Bowl 58 might just come down to picking one from the Chiefs/Bengals/Bills to take on one from the Eagles/49ers/Cowboys, but the rest of the league is grappling with a ton of uncertainty as we continue to see record quarterback movement, and not many head coaches are established with their teams as well.

But the quarterback experiments going on in 2023 are something we are not used to seeing at this level. Aside from Aaron Rodgers returning for a 19th season, the old guard is basically gone. We are in a new era, and there is already a game in Week 1 where teams might be starting Sam Howell against Joshua Dobbs (or something called Clayton Tune).

How many of these guys make it the full year? The 2022 season only had 10 quarterbacks start every game, the fewest since 1999. That even includes Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, who both played 16 games as their game against each other was cancelled after Damar Hamlin was taken to the hospital. It was the first time since 1935 that the NFL cancelled a game for non-strike reasons.

There are 15 quarterbacks this season who have fewer than 16 starts with their current team. Throw in the Arizona situation to replace the recovering Kyler Murray, and there are 9 quarterbacks with fewer than 16 starts in the NFL period.

This is a lot of uncertainty and a lot of learning to do about these new players as well as the old players in new situations. We were spoiled a bit by the Buccaneers and Rams winning Super Bowls right away with franchise quarterbacks. After Ryan and Wilson last year, you should not even assume Rodgers will be a hit in New York.

People can make their predictions, and maybe they’ll look good on them, but I would be suspicious of anyone speaking with confidence that they know Jordan Love will be a bust or Desmond Ridder will be a good one in Atlanta. We just don’t know. Throw in Howell in Washington, and there is a chance at least one of those new NFC quarterbacks will pop this year and look good. But we really know less than usual this year.

Not to mention, the 2022 season was already a historically weird year.

Oh yeah, it may have ended with a Super Bowl between No. 1 seeds, and you will accuse me of saying this about every year. It is true that each NFL season comes with its own unique features, but last year really was a wild ride, and I am not just talking about the Vikings. You know, the team that pulled off the most shocking fumble recovery touchdown since the Miracle at the Meadowlands and set a record with a 33-0 comeback on their way to tying the record with 8 fourth-quarter comebacks in a season.

But the whole league was in comeback mode at record levels:

  • 50 teams won games after trailing by 10 points at any point in the regular season (single-season record; old record was 43)
  • 141 games were decided by 7 or fewer points (single-season record)
  • 156 games were decided by 8 or fewer points (single-season record)
  • 85 fourth-quarter comeback wins, including playoffs (single-season record; old record was 73)
  • The percentage of games with a 4QC opportunity (61.25%) was at its highest since 2013

Regression could be rough for Minnesota in close games this year, but what about the teams who kept blowing leads like the Raiders, Broncos, and Ravens? It probably is not a coincidence that Trevor Lawrence and Kenny Pickett were getting their comeback reputations built by beating the Raiders and Ravens late.

Speaking of the Steelers and Jaguars, it was a weird season for a lot of teams turning poor starts into strong finishes, or vice versa. Streaking was off the charts in 2022:

  • The 2022 Dolphins and 2022 Jaguars are 2-of-9 playoff teams in NFL history to have a 5-game losing streak during the season. They are only the 5th and 6th playoff teams to have 5-game streaks of losing and winning during the same regular season.
  • Four teams made the playoffs with a negative scoring differential in 2022 (Vikings, Giants, Dolphins, Buccaneers) – the most in a non-strike season in NFL history.
  • The 2022 Vikings (13-4) are the only team to win more than 11 games in a season with a negative scoring differential.
  • Only four teams in NFL history started 2-6 and finished with 9+ wins, and three of them happened last year (2022 Steelers, Lions, and Jaguars all finished 9-8).
  • The 2022 Titans join the 1994 Eagles as the only teams to win 7 games before ending their season on a losing streak of 7 games.
  • For the first time since the Steelers and Raiders in 1976, the playoffs had two teams on an active 10-game winning streak, but the Bengals (10) and 49ers (12) both lost on Championship Sunday.
  • For the first time since the merger, three teams who won 12-plus games (Rams, Buccaneers, Packers) in one conference all finished with a losing record the next season.
  • The 2022 Rams set an NFL record for the worst record (5-12) by a defending Super Bowl champion.

Did I mention the last pick in the draft almost went on an undefeated run to the Super Bowl before his elbow exploded?

So, you expect me to give you good predictions for 2023 and figure things out like if Sam Howell will be great, or if the Jets are getting a legitimate Rodgers when I still don’t even know what to think about so many things from 2022.

Is Brock Purdy really that guy? Is Jimmy Garoppolo going to get exposed in Las Vegas, or is Josh McDaniels another QB guru like Kyle Shanahan who will get the best out of him? Is Trevor Lawrence the real deal, or are we just overlooking how his defense won the division title by making Joshua Dobbs fumble and that he threw four picks before he threw a touchdown in that playoff game? Is Tua really that good, concussions aside, or did he just beat up on bad teams with the best speed at wideout in the NFL? Is Russell Wilson just cooked?

I tried my best this year. Since late July, I have been doing three full-length previews for every team except Buffalo, so that is a total of 95 published team previews at three different sites. The 365Scores previews are more or less my “official” previews as they are all longer (most around 2500 words) and have more research to them than the ones at BMR and OT. But practically every preview is 1500+ words, so that is 5000+ words per team, which is why I’m fatigued over previews and not looking forward to summarizing them all 32 more times here.

But I have to keep myself to a standard, and I have been posting these previews every year on here since 2012. I will include links to all the previews and you can choose to read how much you want. I did my best to not have a ton of overlap.

Note: The words written after each preview link may not necessarily reflect what is written in said link. You can only trust that the 365Scores previews have extra research. I’m just giving my thoughts on the teams here, 48 hours before opening night. Also, any over/under picks in these articles were subject to change as I made my final record predictions over the weekend after going through the schedule.

AFC WEST

1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)

365Scores Preview: The 95th and final team preview I wrote is the most epic one at over 5,500 words. I go through why the Chiefs were never supposed to win last year’s Super Bowl until they did in a truly one-of-a-kind manner that is the defining moment for Mahomes’ legacy right now. I also look at how the offense adapted without Tyreek Hill, and why the issues we thought would make the team take a step back in 2022 didn’t materialize, and how they could show up this season, a year late.

BMR Preview: Well, I wrote this blurb before I went to bed Tuesday morning, only to wake up to the news about Travis Kelce’s injury. Hopefully he only misses a game at best, because I did write back in July how a Kelce injury would make things scary for this offense. The Chiefs already lost offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., but I’d sooner be worried about a Chris Jones holdout taking real games away for the defense than to be concerned about those two departures. It just stinks that Kadarius Toney is so unreliable. He’s the only wide receiver who could turn a Netflix & Chill evening into a trip to the ICU.

OT Preview: No team has repeated since the 2003-04 Patriots, so this is the longest drought in history without a repeat champion. But expecting one team to reach a 4th Super Bowl in 5 years is tough, especially with the AFC getting deeper and the Chiefs have a lot of tough games. Only the 1990-93 Bills (0-4) and the 2014-18 Patriots (3-1) pulled off that Super Bowl run, but the Chiefs are down for making history. They have gone 33 straight games without losing by more than 4 points, two games shy of a new record.

2. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8)

365Scores Preview: This preview tells the story of how the Chargers ignoring a fatigued Gerald Everett in Week 2 in Kansas City could have been the butterfly effect of the season, changing everything from the AFC West winner to the MVP to the Super Bowl outcome. Despite holding a lead in the fourth quarter of every Justin Hebert vs. Patrick Mahomes matchup, the Chargers are just 1-4 in those games. Herbert has even led a go-ahead drive in 4-of-5 games, including three touchdown passes after the 2:30 mark.

But the Chargers saved their ultimate Chargering act for the playoffs in Jacksonville, blowing a 27-0 lead. These losses in front of a national audience have added to the perception that Herbert is not clutch or as good as Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or even Trevor Lawrence. But I nip that in the bud here by examining how he’s the only one of that group who was great as a rookie, he’s the only one who has to share a division with Mahomes (which limits his success), he’s the only one who has never had a solid defense, and he’s never been given a great, young receiver to flourish with like they have all had.

BMR Preview: The Chargers adding Kellen Moore at offensive coordinator is a good move that should be beneficial to Herbert and Austin Ekeler. The Chargers will continue to build around the pass, but they will hopefully air it out more, and the receivers must stay healthy. Quinten Johnston from TCU is good injury insurance, but I’m not sure if the team shouldn’t have drafted Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison instead.

OT Preview: If the Chargers are going to return to the playoffs, they need a big effort from the defense again in Week 1 against Miami, a potential tie-breaker scenario can come from that game. Last year, the Chargers won 10 games but the only team they beat who did not lose 10+ games was Miami.  We’ll see how the defense responds as Joey Bosa has not played a full game since Week 2, and corner J.C. Jackson was a major bust in his first year with the team.

3. Denver Broncos (9-8)

365Scores Preview: I am very excited to see how this union of Sean Payton and Russell Wilson plays out. If you look at NFL history, old quarterbacks simply do not get three chances to prove they are still good. If Wilson is still lousy under Payton this year, I am not sure what the team can do. The defense may also regress, but as long as the offense improves dramatically and the team finishes with a winning record, I like Payton for Coach of the Year.

BMR Preview: Forget ending the 15-game losing streak to the Chiefs. Can this team at least beat the Raiders once in the 2020s? Those division games will be critical, but oddly enough, some of Wilson’s best moments in 2022 came against the Chiefs. If Payton can get him back on track, this is a team that could be due for positive regression after blowing a handful of fourth-quarter leads last year. They also get some key players back healthy like left tackle Garett Bolles and running back Javonte Williams. I also am curious to see if Marvin Mims can be a big play threat as a rookie.

OT Preview: Do not expect Russ to turn into a 5,000-yard passer under Payton. He is not Drew Brees, but fortunately, Payton had some experience at starting other quarterbacks in his final years with the Saints, including Taysom Hill (if he counts as a real quarterback). One thing that concerns me is Jerry Jeudy’s injury, because he was by far the weapon Wilson played best with last year. They need to make sure he can stay healthy if this is going to work as the Broncos have a lot of good offenses to compete with for playoff spots this year.

4. Las Vegas Raiders (7-10)

365Scores Preview: The Raiders were comical in the way they would forget games are 60 minutes long last year. They set some records for blowing leads, including 5 losses after leading by double digits in the second half. In all, the Raiders blew 6 fourth-quarter leads to lead the NFL in 2022, and that does not include the Kansas City game where they gave up 4 touchdowns to Travis Kelce on 25 receiving yards in blowing a 17-point lead.

BMR Preview: I also looked at the impressive but polarizing career for Jimmy Garoppolo, who reunites with Josh McDaniels. I do not believe Garoppolo is as great as his stats say, but I also believe he cannot be a bum and luck into those numbers over this large of a sample size. I think he could be a better fit than Derek Carr was.

OT Preview: Speaking of Carr, it really shocked me that he threw 8 touchdown passes of 30-plus yards to Davante Adams, the same number Aaron Rodgers had to Davante in 8 seasons together. That play-action and running game can be special for this offense. Now if only the defense can find some help for Maxx Crosby and be more respectable this year. This team can absolutely win more games, but the schedule is going to make it harder to do better for the playoffs. Still, I think over 6.5 wins is one of the best bets this year.

NFC WEST

1. San Francisco 49ers (12-5)

365Scores Preview: Is Brock Purdy the new late-round wunderkind or is he damaged rookie goods like RG3? It usually is a great sign for career success when a rookie quarterback plays well, and Purdy certainly did that last year even if he got away with his share of dropped picks. But when injury comes into play like it did for RG3 and Greg Cook, that can ruin a career. Purdy has to prove he can overcome the elbow surgery, and that his last season was legitimate. This can go anywhere from him getting benched for Sam Darnold to winning MVP, but having the most uniquely talented set of skill players in a great system and a top defense should make the 49ers a division winner again.

BMR Preview: I am not concerned about defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans going to Houston and taking safety Jimmie Ward with him. This is still a ridiculously talented defense at all levels, and besides, the 49ers get 4 games with the Cardinals and Rams.

OT Preview: The 49ers may be a risky Super Bowl pick and I do feel like trusting the Eagles and Cowboys more, but it is hard to name any other team in the conference that should be better this year. It is a 3-horse race, and the 49ers will face both this regular season with a chance to get a No. 1 seed. Just have to hope this QB situation does not backfire in the worst way this year. The Garoppolo safety blanket is gone for Shanahan.

2. Seattle Seahawks (8-9)

365Scores Preview: Geno Smith’s career arc is very unique since getting punched by a teammate in 2015 basically derailed his true third season as a starter. He made the most of last year’s opportunity, but I’m still lukewarm on the Seahawks being legit. They were basically a .500 team that was fortunate to make two comebacks against the Rams (who did not have their best trio of players in either game), or else both teams would have finished 7-10. Seattle’s only big winning streak (4-0) was also something that included a sweep of the Cardinals and a win over the Giants. Just not impressed enough with this team to predict more this year, but I did take a fun look at old quarterbacks to break out and found most stay close in team record the following year, hence 8-9 for Seattle from me.

BMR Preview: The Seahawks have not had a top 10 defense since 2016. That would help them out, but I just don’t see it after bringing back Bobby Wagner and drafting a corner in the top 5. Personally, I think Jalen Carter would have been more interesting there, but I understand why Pete Carroll would be hesitant to get a guy who may not love the game like he should. But when you’re in your 70s, taking the best talent out there is also enticing.

OT Preview: I think the Seahawks drafted the right wide receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but he is hurt to start the year and should not be more than a WR3 in 2023 unless Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf gets hurt. With the way this team struggled to beat the 49ers last year, I’m just not sold they can leapfrog them this year.

3. Los Angeles Rams (4-13)

365Scores Preview: I can remember earlier this summer when I had the Rams going ahead of Seattle, then I took a closer look at the roster. What the hell is this team? It’s Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald, and 50 NPCs. Kupp even has a hamstring injury already and may miss Week 1. It makes sense that the Rams would have the worst season ever for a defending champion, but the fall from grace is still crazy to see.

BMR Preview: The Rams had 8 defenders play 700+ snaps last year and all but one of them is gone this year. I’ve never seen anything like that. On the bright side, the Rams have a 2024 first-round pick, and it may be awfully high.

OT Preview: The good news is the Cardinals are even worse. Or maybe that’s bad news, because if you’re going to have a terrible season, might as well swing for the fences and get that No. 1 pick.

4. Arizona Cardinals (2-15)

365Scores Preview: Is Arizona trying to tank, and what should the tank campaign name be? I like “Crumble for Caleb” a lot. But this team is going to be unwatchable this year. I did my best to inject some humor and insults in this preview for the team with easily the worst Super Bowl odds and lowest over/under win total (4.5, maybe down to 3.5) this year.

BMR Preview: Clearly, I have Arizona making a real run at that No. 1 pick, which is presumably USC quarterback Caleb Williams. Hell, they might even get the No. 2 pick since they own Houston’s pick for the Will Anderson trade. Maybe they can get Marvin Harrison Jr. too.

OT Preview: But you may be surprised to know that just 2-of-22 teams in the 32-team era had the worst preseason win total and actually earned the No. 1 pick. That was the 2016 Browns (drafted Myles Garrett) and 2020 Jaguars (drafted Trevor Lawrence). But when you are releasing Colt McCoy and deciding between Joshua Dobbs and rookie Clayton Tune before Week 1, you are not taking this seriously. For the record, I bashed the Jonathan Gannon signing when it happened as I don’t think he’s a good coordinator. His record will likely back up he’s a lousy coach this year, but he could luck into quite a prospect in Williams next year.

AFC EAST

1. Buffalo Bills (12-5)

365Scores Preview: One of my earliest previews in July, I detail the emotional rollercoaster the Bills went on last year as their season as Super Bowl favorites crashed with their worst loss in a season and a half (27-10 to Cincy). Maybe it was one bad game, but if that is how their matchups with the Bengals are going to go, they have a long way to improve with that one. At least they know how to beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead.

BMR Preview: But I really do believe people are overlooking how the Damar Hamlin situation drained this team, and Von Miller’s injury was too much to overcome as they lacked a pass rush after he was lost. This team could have a redemption story this year. It happens often that teams shake off devastating playoff losses and win a Super Bowl the next year. I also think the early schedule for the Jets is brutal, so I still like Buffalo to win the AFC East despite many wanting to pick this team to fall off. I refuse to do it yet, and I did like the draft pick of Dalton Kincaid. Maybe when the big matchups come late in the year, the defense can have guys like Von and Tre’Davious White healthy unlike the last two seasons. Remember, you don’t always win with your best team. You win with the one that had the best circumstances.

2. New York Jets (12-5)

365Scores Preview: This should be fun. The team with the first 4,000-yard passer in 1967 seeks a second in 2023 with the quarterback who last made the Super Bowl in 2010. But that 12-season stretch was also the last time the Jets were in the playoffs, so why not party like it’s 2010 again? Giving Aaron Rodgers his best defense since maybe 2010 would be a huge deal, and this team clearly just needed a solid quarterback last year to make the playoffs. They ended the year on a 6-game slide after starting 7-4.

BMR Preview: This should be the year the Jets end the 14-game losing streak against New England. But the schedule is fascinating here as the Jets have a brutal run in the first 6 games before the bye. It would not be shocking if they are 2-4 and hearing it from the media, but I think you should just stay the course with this team. The schedule will ease up and they will play some of their best football down the stretch going into the playoffs where anything can happen.

OT Preview: There is no doubt a lot of expectations on Rodgers, but I think he can win MVP as this team elevating its passing game will largely be credited to him. He has some receivers from Green Bay along for the ride, he has his embattled coordinator (Nathaniel Hackett) who was a bum in Denver, but he might be one of those guys who is good at being just a coordinator. This should help the process, but Rodgers will have to overcome that early schedule and hang in there. I don’t love the Super Bowl chances this year as I think the other teams have an experience edge and I’m still not sure what to make of Robert Saleh. But for a change, the Jets should have a passing game and be an interesting watch.

365Scores Preview: The rookie year for Mike McDaniel in Miami was a success as he made the playoffs and got Tyreek Hill to help Tua Tagovailoa have a breakout season where he led the NFL in many passing efficiency categories. Unfortunately, multiple concussions and Miami’s early mismanagement of them ended his season before the playoffs. Tua could be a darkhorse MVP candidate if he stays healthy this year.

3. Miami Dolphins (9-8)

BMR Preview: It was a weird season with the Dolphins alternating between winning and losing streaks of 3 and 5 games. Some of that was tied to Tua’s health, but he also lost his last four starts when the competition got tougher.

OT Preview: While McDaniel comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, this team looks closer to the Sean McVay and Rams way of doing things. They are very top-heavy on talent at wideout and pass rusher, but not much depth to speak of. If a hamstring goes for Hill or Waddle, look out as they did not do much to find a third receiving weapon. The Jalen Ramsey injury is also a bummer, but I did like the hiring of Vic Fangio at DC. Still, something is missing for me with this team to think they improve on last year’s record.

4. New England Patriots (6-11)

365Scores Preview: Well, at least Matt Patricia won’t be calling plays this year. But I really do think this is the year the Patriots fall to last in the AFC East after the quarterback imbalance has completely swung the other way for them. The last straw was Rodgers joining the Jets, because Belichick has used the Jets for two wins every year since 2016. That ends this year, and the Patriots are going to face a ton of better quarterbacks than Mac Jones unless they resort to poisoning the opponent.

BMR Preview: If you look at New England’s 8 wins last year, the best quarterback they beat was Jared Goff (Lions). Everyone else was a backup, benched, or injured starter. They won’t have that luxury this year, and they have been getting owned by Tua and Allen in the division lately. They also have to play Hurts, Mahomes, Herbert, etc.

OT Preview: The Patriots did not upgrade the weapons enough for Jones to make me think this offense is going to be adequate enough to deal with this schedule. You know the defense will be adequate and keep the team in games, but their edge in close games is gone. This is now the team that does stupid shit like a lateral at midfield back to the quarterback or fumbling inside the 5-yard line against the Bengals on a first down.

You had a great run, but it’s over, Bill.

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)

365Scores Preview: This was my first preview out of 95 this summer. The Eagles are still the better team than the Cowboys and 49ers in my view, but the reason I still have trust issues is they just never beat good quarterbacks on good teams. They got by last year beating up on Cooper Rush, or beating teams that finished with winning records that they played when they were starting 2-6. Then Brock Purdy saw his elbow explode after 6 snaps in the title game. It was a lot of fortunate schedule quirks, and I want to see this team beat the good quarterbacks. Hurts is 0-7 against QBs who rank in the top 15 in QBR on a team that wins 10-plus games.

BMR Preview: The NFC East has not had a repeat champion since the 2001-04 Eagles. Every other division has had at least two teams repeat in that time. But I really think the Eagles can get it done this year. I’m not worried about losing the two coordinators, and they still have one of the most talented, balanced rosters.

OT Preview: But I must say adding Jalen Carter to that pass rush is nasty work. The rich get richer. He should be able to learn from Fletcher Cox and I have several bets on him winning Defensive Rookie of the Year. This defense could actually be better this year as I think Gannon’s scheme held them back. But I also have some concerns with Jalen Hurts becoming the first quarterback to run the ball 200 times in a season (playoffs included). They need to dial that back if they don’t want a repeat of last year as he may not return in time from injury for the playoffs.

Keep the quarterback sneak though, even if I hate watching it. That’s just deadly effective for what was already the most unstoppable play from scrimmage in the game.

2. Dallas Cowboys (12-5)

365Scores Preview: The Cowboys are no worse than third in the NFC behind the 49ers and Eagles. But the Cowboys were the only NFC team to rank in the top 5 in scoring on both sides of the ball. Once Dak Prescott came back from injury, he led the team to a 9-game streak of scoring 27-plus points, the longest streak in franchise history. But the way this team melts down in losses against the Bucs, Commanders, and the 49ers in the playoffs is why it is hard to get behind them to win it all for a change.

BMR Preview: Prescott was Mr. Self Destruct last year with the picks, but a lot of them were tipped balls and bad luck. I think the offense is a great candidate for positive regression and his interception rate will drop back to normally low levels. That does not concern me. I also really like the addition of Brandin Cooks as a speedy deep threat, and Michael Gallup should look better another year removed from serious injury. Tony Pollard is also an exciting back, and so may his new backup be in Deuce Vaughn. Ezekiel Elliott is finally out of their way. I also am content with Brian Schottenheimer taking over at OC for Kellen Moore. Russell Wilson had some of his best years in Seattle with him calling the plays. This might be the best offensive core Schotty has ever coached too.

OT Preview: The defense did the unthinkable and led the league in takeaways for the 2nd year in a row. I do not see it happening for a third, but this is one of the best defenses in the league and that was not the unit that held them back in the playoff loss to the 49ers. Speaking of which, the 49ers host Dallas in Week 5 in prime time. I think this is big since Dallas had to play the 49ers, a very talented and well-coached team, in the playoffs the last two years with no experience from the regular season to learn from. Give them a taste of the matchup this year, and maybe this time they will figure it out for January should there be another playoff rematch.

3. Washington Commanders (7-10)

365Scores Preview: The truth is if there was any team I warmed up to dramatically since late July, and the preseason results were partially responsible, it would be Washington. I think 7-10 might even be a low estimate, but I am intrigued by Sam Howell, and I think this just might work out now. I’m definitely way more optimistic now than I was in this preview here. Don’t like seeing Terry McLaurin getting injured in the preseason though. Figures, he was the only player I put in a prop bet for in best bets.

BMR Preview: But Eric Bieniemy can definitely make this opportunity boost him to a head coaching job if he makes Howell, one of the most unheralded opening-day starters in years, into a legit quarterback.

OT Preview: The defense has a ton of home-grown talent and they did come up with two of the best upsets last year in making the Eagles and Cowboys cough up the ball repeatedly.

4. New York Giants (6-11)

365Scores Preview: It was a tale of two seasons for the Giants. At 6-1, they were winning almost every close game they lost in Daniel Jones’ first 3 seasons. But as the season wore on, that dried up unless they were playing Minnesota, the only NFC playoff team they were really capable of beating. I’m not a fan of the wide receiver moves for this team as they just signed a bunch of slot guys and traded for tight end Darren Waller, which would have been more exciting two years ago.

BMR Preview: The main reason I have the Giants swapped with Washington is that it was those matchups last year that dictated the Giants going to the playoffs while the Commanders were out at 8-8-1. I also have more faith in Sam Howell than I do Wentz. I just am not sure Daniel Jones showed enough to warrant the contract extension, and I’m not convinced Brian Daboll is going to get much more out of him this year.

OT Preview: The defense is also likely to continue producing volatile results as they blitz more than any unit in the league. I agree with Daboll winning Coach of the Year last year, but I see the team that finished 3-6-1 as being closer to the real Giants than the team that was 6-1.

AFC SOUTH

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7)

365Scores Preview: This was another preview I was fond of doing, because I looked at how the Jaguars made their turnaround last year, and how it was a huge departure for a team that had lost 41 straight games when allowing more than 20 points. The fact that they trailed by 17+ points a handful of times after Week 9, including getting pumped 27-goose at home to start the playoff campaign, and needed a defensive fumble return TD off a third-string QB signed in December to even make the playoffs…it all worries me about just how good this team, which did not add much outside of getting Calvin Ridley off the suspension list, will be in 2023.

BMR Preview: But by playing in the AFC South, that’s 4 games against rookie coaches and quarterbacks from Indy and Houston. I think the division alone can give this team half their wins this year. It will be interesting to see if Doug Pederson can work some Year 2 magic for Trevor Lawrence like he did with Carson Wentz in 2017.

OT Preview: But I’m still skeptical of how well this team will fare against the elite teams. You can’t keep relying on 17-point comebacks, something they did 3 times in their last 11 games after doing so once in the franchise’s first 455 games. But it is cool to see the Jaguars be relevant again, and they are aiming for back-to-back playoffs for the first time since 1996-99.

2. Tennessee Titans (8-9)

365Scores Preview: It was a true tale of two seasons as the Titans went from 7-3 to 0-7 to miss the playoffs. I’ll still never understand why the team traded A.J. Brown, a move that hampered the passing game dramatically last year. But with 4 games against the Texans and Colts, a healthy Ryan Tannehill, the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, and some skill players entering Year 2, the Titans can certainly get close to .500 again as Mike Vrabel seems to do his best work as an underdog.

BMR Preview: But I really believe this team blew its window with that playoff loss to Cincinnati as the No. 1 seed in 2021. The Titans are old news with one of the oldest quarterbacks, RB1, and WR1 trios in the league. Things would have to go really poor this year to see Will Levis start games, but Tannehill’s injury history also points to it being a possibility. But if that happens, they might be looking for a new coach in 2024 too.

OT Preview: The defense should keep the team in most games as they get Harold Landry back as their best pass rusher. I believe 8-9 is the perfect record for a team stuck in purgatory, just waiting to move on to the next era of Titans football.

3. Houston Texans (4-13)

365Scores Preview: I look at the recent run on first-time coaches who were defensive specialists, but it is not pretty when Sean McDermott, Dan Quinn, and Mike Vrabel are the only success stories so far. However, I do like the DeMeco Ryans hiring because he was not a one-year wonder as coordinator in San Francisco, he’s not a dinosaur like Lovie Smith was last year, and we know Houston is near and dear to his heart being a former player.

BMR Preview: But I also like Ryans because he brought Bobby Slowik with him from San Francisco where he has learned from Kyle Shanahan for many years. He should be able to bring those concepts with him to help C.J. Stroud, who I did not like as much as Bryce Young in the draft, but we’ll see how it goes. The Texans’ lack of weapons is concerning.

OT Preview: At least the team has a plan and can start to build an identity again after two worthless years in the wake of Deshaun Watson’s shame. I did not love the trade for Will Anderson, but I at least understand it. They just better hope he is a lot closer to J.J. Watt than Jadeveon Clowney. Even a repeat of Mario Williams would be a bit disappointing given what they gave up for that pick. But if he is an annual DPOY candidate, then you can’t hate on the move to get the best edge rusher in the draft.

4. Indianapolis Colts (4-13)

365Scores Preview: I spent an abnormal amount of time recapping a 4-win team’s season, which I broke up into five acts as the tragicomedy of the year in 2022. Only Frank Reich got a happy ending by the time it was over.

BMR Preview: Like Houston, I like the hiring of Shane Steichen and the selection of Anthony Richardson. I just think it won’t produce good results in Year 1 because this team has a lot of holes, and the Jonathan Taylor situation is not helping matters.

OT Preview: The Colts really need to be a “run the ball and play good defense” team this year, which is so out of whack with the usual Indy philosophy. But that would suit Richardson best right now. I’m just not sure an offense with Michael Pittman and some backup running backs can do much. I also liked Jelani Woods at tight end in Year 2 but see he is on short-term IR. Bummer. Looks like another long year in Indy that probably won’t be as dramatic or funny as last year’s Jeff Saturday adventure.

NFC SOUTH

1. New Orleans Saints (12-5)

365Scores Preview: One of the best rivalries in the NFL this season should be me against Saints/Derek Carr fans on Twitter. I will go well into January asking who did this team beat, because the schedule is the No. 1 factor in me picking the Saints to go 12-5 this year.

BMR Preview: But given Derek Carr’s final pass with the Raiders was a game-ending interception against the Steelers, I already won that one, didn’t I? Nine years and no playoff wins. Now he gets the best situation of his career where he should be the best quarterback in his division, the schedule is a cakewalk, and he should have his best defense ever.

OT Preview: You might say 12 wins is generous, but the Vikings just won 13 games with a negative scoring differential thanks to comeback wins. What does Carr actually do well? He gets a lot of game-winning drives, and I expect him to do that at least four times this year despite not playing that significantly better. It’s just the situation around him has never been better. However, expect this to be a one-year thing as I predict the division will be tougher in 2024. They need to take advantage of the schedule this year.

2. Atlanta Falcons (9-8)

365Scores Preview: The easy schedule was my talking point for both the Saints and Falcons. Atlanta will play 14 games against the NFC South, NFC North, and AFC South – possibly the worst divisions in the NFL. Desmond Ridder is a true wild card this year, but I can’t deny Bijan Robinson going to the most run-heavy offense makes sense even if I hated the positional value at No. 8. They will use him like he needs to be used. Will they remember they have Kyle Pitts too? We’ll see, but he and Ridder never played together last year because of injury. Drake London also looks like a hit already.

BMR Preview: The defense is a ragtag bunch of free agents, but the schedule will help them immensely too. I do not see many quarterbacks who can hang 30 points on this team, and that already rarely happened last year because Atlanta games had very few possessions due to the running attempts and 3rd-down conversions.

OT Preview: I believe in Arthur Smith enough after two 7-10 seasons to take advantage of this easy schedule, get more out of Ridder than he could in a second try with Mariota, and the Falcons will end this 5-year losing slide. But they’re not a serious contender for the Super Bowl yet.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-11)

365Scores Preview: The Buccaneers will have a quarterback this year who is not going to get rid of the ball before any receiver can get downfield because he is done getting hit in his career. But will Baker Mayfield make the easy throws to sustain drives? Will he pull off the game-winning drives he has usually sucked at after the defense keeps many games close and winnable for him? I’m not sold there.

BMR Preview: But imagine if Baker did play great this year. Dave Canales is a name to keep an eye out on as the team’s new offensive coordinator. He was Geno Smith’s quarterbacks coach last year and helped him to a career year. If he did the same with Baker in Tampa, he could be a head coach by 2025.

OT Preview: The schedule is a huge bonus for the NFC South teams except for Tampa Bay. By virtue of playing a first-place schedule, the Bucs have to play the Bills, 49ers, and Eagles – three elite teams the Saints, Falcons, and Panthers do not have to play. That is why I have them at 6-11, but still ahead of Carolina based on head-to-head results.

4. Carolina Panthers (6-11)

365Scores Preview: This preview takes an interesting look at the best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history. It does not seem likely that Bryce Young will join this list, because he lacks a lot of the advantages those quarterbacks had after the Panthers traded D.J. Moore to Chicago to help get him.

BMR Preview: Also, the Panthers may not be a traditional No. 1 draft pick team based on record, but it is a fact that Andrew Luck is the only quarterback drafted No. 1 in the Super Bowl era to win more than 7 games as a rookie.

OT Preview: But I like Young the most in this rookie quarterback class, because I think he will be closer to young Russell Wilson (a pass-first quarterback who can use his mobility to improvise) than someone like Justin Fields (all about his legs). I also liked the hiring of Frank Reich, who finally gets to craft a young quarterback instead of a revolving door of veterans on their last legs. But for the love of God, can the Panthers win a close game? They were 0-16 at game-winning drive opportunities under Matt Rhule, and the Panthers have lost 50 straight games when trailing in the fourth quarter going back to 2018.

AFC NORTH

1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4)

365Scores Preview: I have not always been the most supportive voice for Lamar Jackson, but I am riding with the Ravens to make this their redemption season. After so many injuries and one-score losses the last two years, I see the Ravens putting it together for their best overall season in the Jackson era. No, the record and statistics may not look as strong as they did in 2019 when they blew it in the first playoff game, but I’m talking about a team that can actually step up and beat the AFC elites (Chiefs, Bengals, Bills) in big games in the regular season and postseason.

BMR Preview: People either forget or didn’t know that the Ravens were leading the AFC North in December the last two years when Jackson was injured and lost for the season. With his new contract, new offensive coordinator, and the best supporting cast of weapons he’s ever had, I like Jackson as an MVP candidate and for the Ravens to win the AFC North back from the Bengals.

OT Preview: The defense may not be as elite as it used to be, but I trust John Harbaugh’s coaching, Justin Tucker is the greatest to ever do it, and I’m going to bet on Jackson to stay healthy this time and lead this team to the top seed as you can see I did not pick any other AFC team to do better than 12-5.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)

365Scores Preview: No one has won the AFC North three years in a row since 2002, and like I just said with the Ravens, it was Baltimore who led the division in December the last two years when Jackson was injured. Now it is Joe Burrow with the injury concern coming into this season, though he is expected to start Week 1. A big game with the Ravens awaits already in Week 2.

BMR Preview: I think this team is still right in the mix in the playoffs, and I like how they looked against Buffalo last year in 4.5 quarters. That may be a good matchup for them. They play the Chiefs better than just about anyone. They are a tough out, but I’m not sold that adding Orlando Brown Jr. is the solution to making Burrow take the next step and bring those sack numbers down. Burrow is 21-1 when he doesn’t take 5 sacks since mid-2021. He is 1-8 when taking 5+ sacks.

OT Preview: The Bengals also lost some key starters in the secondary and I do not like the replacements they added. First-round pick DE Myles Murphy is also unlikely to make a big impact off the bench this year.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

365Scores Preview: If Washington was the NFC team that changed my mind a bit during the preseason, the Steelers are that team in the AFC after the starting offense went 5-for-5 in scoring touchdowns in August. Now watch them be a bottom 3 scoring team in September, because the NFL is like that sometimes. But this preview looks at the chances of Kenny Pickett overcoming his coaching to have a breakout 2nd season.

BMR Preview: The history is not great for Pickett, but the offensive core is so young and talented that it may be able to overcome Matt Canada, the returning OC who has gone all 35 games of his career without once getting this offense to 400 yards in any game. But George Pickens could be ready to make a huge leap too in Year 2, and the offense was elite on third down after the bye last year.

OT Preview: The schedule is not so front-loaded brutal like it was last year when the Steelers started 2-6. But with Pickett and Pickens no longer rookies, T.J. Watt back healthy, and Mike Tomlin always finding a way to not have a losing season, I think the Steelers improve enough in a deep division to get to 10 wins. Is that enough for the playoffs? Scroll down.

4. Cleveland Browns (8-9)

365Scores Preview: I look at how Deshaun Watson underperformed last year and how he is no longer a top 8 quarterback in the AFC, which is absolutely what the Browns need him to be if they are going to go over 9.5 wins. Frankly, I think this is one of the easiest unders this year. The division is tough, and Cleveland has finished behind Pittsburgh in every season since 1990. That’s to say nothing about the Super Bowl contenders in Baltimore and Cincinnati.

BMR Preview: The Browns were 1-1 against each division rival last year, but they also beat the Steelers without Kenny Pickett and T.J. Watt, beat the Bengals without Ja’Marr Chase, and beat the Ravens without Lamar Jackson. Is that going to happen again for them? Doubtful.

OT Preview: In this one I give a shot out to how Jacoby Brissett played the best ball of his career last year in a tough situation, knowing he was keeping the seat warm for someone like Watson. I also acknowledge some of the reasons the Browns performed worse in Watson’s starts, including the defenses faced and the weather. But there is no excuse for him in 2023 to not play better. He was every bit as bad as Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson were on their new teams last year.

NFC NORTH

1. Detroit Lions (9-8)

365Scores Preview: The Lions are outright favorites in a division for the first time since 1982. It did not go well then, nor did it go well in 1992 when they were co-favorites with Chicago. But for all the talk I made about not liking this team to improve much, I still ended up with 9-8 and a division title this time. The rest of the division has a lot of uncertainty to it. But this preview has an interesting study on teams who start 1-6 and get to 8-9 wins and how they did the following year. A poor start followed by a hot finish is no guarantee of success the next year.

BMR Preview: Another theme in my Detroit previews was looking at their draft class and how they may not have gotten the best positional value. A lot of the moves should be marginal upgrades, especially at running back where D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams had big production last year.

OT Preview: You know what could make the defense much better? Aidan Hutchinson improving to DPOY-caliber play in his second season. I like him as a dark horse for that award (+3000 odds).

2. Minnesota Vikings (8-9)

365Scores Preview: Regression is always the buzzword with the Vikings this year after going 11-0 in close games with 8 4QC/GWD (tied NFL record). Writing previews for this team was fun because they really did have one of the most entertaining seasons in NFL history last year. But 13-4 was a mirage and they will regress in close games this year to fall back to Kirk Cousins’ typical .500 range.

BMR Preview: But I was worried that I may have been leaning too hard on the regression bet as my original picks had the Vikings at 6-11 before I beefed it up to 8-9. When I saw the Vikings playing a team that lost a lot of close games last year (Raiders, Broncos come to mind), I immediately turned to regression and gave the Vikings a loss this year. It’s not like the offense will suddenly suck even if they lost Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen. They still have Justin Jefferson and I like the pick of Jordan Addison. Just get someone in his head to not go speeding at night unless he wants to be the next Henry Ruggs. But Cousins is one of the few NFC quarterbacks who can say he is a proven passer that can stay healthy for a full season. That is an advantage for this team.

OT Preview: But the defense let go of so many veterans that Brian Flores is going to see his bend-but-don’t-break style of defense break often this year. But can 8-9 still be enough for the playoffs in a weak, top-heavy conference like this NFC? Scroll down.

3. Green Bay Packers (8-9)

365Scores Preview: I have a table in here that shows how hard it is to replace a legendary quarterback as even Aaron Rodgers was 6-10 (with a bunch of close losses in 2008) in his first year as a starter. But I trust Matt LaFleur to make this work to get at least the same record as last year when Rodgers was at his worst with the broken thumb. I’m intrigued by Love and thought he looked good in the preseason, if that ever matters.

BMR Preview: The Packers have a ton of young skill players around Love, so they are going to grow together if this works out. They can lean on the veteran backfield, and the defense was the best of a lousy bunch in this division last year.

OT Preview: I am not picking the Packers for the playoffs, but I think they have a shot since the division does not look like it will produce a 10-win team to me. If Love is legit, then this could be very interesting as the Lions already swept the Packers last year with Rodgers. It’s not like his absence is going to help Detroit get even better this year, so the division games should be crucial in figuring out who wins this open division.

Definitely going to be weird to think about the Packers without Favre or Rodgers.

4. Chicago Bears (7-10)

365Scores Preview: I may have done more research on the Bears than any other team this season in writing these previews. What I wanted to look at was how much a team can improve in one year when it ranked dead last in points allowed and in net yards per pass attempt on offense (Bears were 32nd at NY/A on defense too). Results are in here, but the Bears were only the 4th team to finish last in both since 1970. I also looked at teams who ranked in the bottom quarter of the league in both, and almost every team to improve made big changes the 2023 Bears did not.

BMR Preview: That’s the other issue I have with the Bears having a breakout year. They kept the same HC, OC, DC, and QB. The teams that really improved changed at least one of those and usually multiple. The Bears drafted a right tackle and added D.J. Moore and a pass rusher (Ngakoue) who will bail after this season. I look in this link at the fluky YAC plays Moore made this preseason that are unlikely to translate to the regular season. He is not a transformative talent like Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, or Stefon Diggs.

OT Preview: Thanks to Josh Allen, every quarterback who is not good for two years is going to have hope in Year 3, but I’m not sold on Fields as a legitimate passer. He is already one of the most dynamic rushing quarterbacks ever but passing wins games as the 2022 Bears proved with their 3-14 record. The Bears may still have the worst passer in the NFC North.

PLAYOFFS

Once I went through the schedule and made sure things added up to 272 wins, there were very few manual adjustments. I mostly just wanted to make sure Arizona had the worst record and no team was going to win more than 13 games this year.

AFC

  • 1. Baltimore (13-4)
  • 2. Buffalo (12-5)
  • 3. Kansas City (12-5)
  • 4. Jacksonville (10-7)
  • 5. NY Jets (12-5)
  • 6. Cincinnati (11-5)
  • 7. Pittsburgh (10-7)

Yes, I have Buffalo winning in Kansas City again in December, setting it up for the Chiefs to have to go on the road once they complete a sweep of the Bengals in the wild card round to even things at 3-3 (2-1 in the playoffs) in that rivalry. You got on the wrong horse, Orlando.

The Steelers have a good year but lose in Buffalo, the site of Kenny Pickett’s first start last year. The Jets stifle the Jaguars on the road, setting up a Jets-Ravens matchup in the divisional round while the Chiefs go to Buffalo for a change. While people think Rodgers vs. Mahomes is going to be the title game, it’s a surprise as the home teams hold court, setting up Bills at Ravens in the AFC Championship Game.

If you saw me tweeting stats like that at 3 AM, you should have expected this prediction. Lamar Jackson shakes off an MVP snub and the Ravens hang onto the lead this time, sending them back to their first Super Bowl since the 2012 season.

NFC

  • 1. Philadelphia (12-5)
  • 2. San Francisco (12-5)
  • 3. New Orleans (12-5)
  • 4. Detroit (9-8)
  • 5. Dallas (12-5)
  • 6. Atlanta (9-8)
  • 7. Minnesota (8-9)

Honestly, I’m not sure if the Vikings secured the right tie-breakers, but I’d rather see them get a shot in San Francisco instead of the Seahawks again. The 49ers should still win that game with ease.

Not only was the schedule a blessing for the Saints and Falcons in the regular season to get this far, but now they get another game against each other in the wild card. What the hell? I’m feeling generous, so I’ll give Derek Carr a playoff win. But he’ll get exposed by the San Francisco defense the following week.

After the Cowboys enter on a little losing slump, the Lions are feeling like they can get revenge for 2014. Their last playoff win in 1991 was also against Dallas, so maybe the stars are aligning. However, this is my retribution story for Dallas this season, and they win this game, setting up a rematch with the top-seeded Eagles.

We come to learn that things look pretty favorable in this rivalry to Dallas when Dak Prescott is at quarterback, and he outplays Hurts in an upset win on the road to finally end the streak of not getting to the NFC Championship Game since the 1995 season.

Always a bridesmaid, the 49ers again lose the title game for the third year in a row, and this time Dallas takes what it learned in the Week 5 matchup and puts it to good use in upsetting the 49ers and avenging the last two postseasons to return to the Super Bowl. The revisionist history on Mike McCarthy, who can become the first coach to win a Super Bowl with two teams (and winning all road playoff games), is absolutely spectacular for two weeks.

SUPER BOWL LVIII

I may be breaking some of my rules for Super Bowl picks here, but at least it is still a No. 1 seed against a team that was in the final 8 last year with an elite offense and defense. But the Ravens prevail and hang onto this lead after Prescott and McCarthy blow the final drive again, giving sports media enough material for the whole offseason.

Baltimore 28, Dallas 24 (Super Bowl MVP: Lamar Jackson)

This technically would break the Five-Year Rule where no team has won its first Super Bowl with a head coach starting the same quarterback for more than 5 years. This is Year 6 for Harbaugh and Jackson. But you know that rule is going to be broken someday, and why not let it be broken by a former MVP with his best offensive cast, a better offensive coordinator, and is it really 5 years when his last two seasons ended prematurely in December at a time the Ravens were in first place in the AFC North? This exception to the rule would at least be logical.

Now I expect a season where the results are anything but logical, so follow along with me as I cover my 13th season.

TL;DR Version: Last season was crazy. This season could be nuttier with so many new quarterbacks. But I’m going back to an old pick and taking the Ravens over Cowboys while still thinking Buffalo has a shot to redeem itself too. Oh, and since his name has not shown up once in 10,350 words, a happy retirement shoutout to one Tom Brady:

A season without Brady?

NFL Stat Oddity: Super Bowl LVII

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

After a season filled with low-scoring island games, the 2022 NFL season finished with a very good 38-35 Super Bowl that may have been one fewer flag away from an instant top five classic. Either way, Super Bowl LVII made history as the first Super Bowl where both teams scored at least 35 points.

It also rewrote the standard again for what kind of teams we can expect to win a Super Bowl, and no surprise that is thanks to Patrick Mahomes, who went home with MVP honors after throwing three touchdowns and making very few mistakes.

  • It took 57 years, but Mahomes is the first quarterback to lead the league in passing yards and win the Super Bowl in the same season.
  • Mahomes is the first quarterback since Kurt Warner (1999 Rams) to win MVP, first-team All Pro, and Super Bowl MVP in the same season. MVPs were on an 0-9 Super Bowl run and first-team All-Pro quarterbacks were 0-8 before Mahomes’ win.
  • The Chiefs join the 2006 Colts and 2011 Giants as the only teams since 1989 (and likely ever) to win a Super Bowl with a defense ranked lower than 15th in points per drive allowed. The Chiefs were No. 21 this year and won this game despite allowing 35 points on 10 drives.
  • Mahomes won this Super Bowl with a cap hit of 17% this season – the previous high for a Super Bowl-winning quarterback was Steve Young (13.1%) on the 1994 49ers, the beginning of the cap era.
  • The 2022 Chiefs are just one of seven Super Bowl winners to have a minus-3 or worse turnover differential in the regular season. But they were plus-4 in the playoffs.
  • The 2022 Chiefs are the first defense to win a Super Bowl after allowing 30 touchdown passes in the regular season. They allowed 33, four more than any other defense this year.

But in winning 38-35, the Chiefs did it their way. Jalen Hurts is now 15-2 when he leads the Eagles to at least 27 points, and both losses are to Mahomes, a f’n unicorn who just solidified himself this weekend as a first-ballot Hall of Famer with two Super Bowl MVPs and two MVP awards in his first six seasons. The only other two quarterbacks to do that needed 11 (Tom Brady) or 12 (Joe Montana) seasons to achieve it.

For the fourth time in the last nine Super Bowls, we had a team come back to win after trailing by double digits in the second half. That happened zero times in the first 48 Super Bowls.

I’d call it your classic Chiefs comeback against the front-running Eagles, akin to Super Bowl LIV against the 49ers, but this game was actually quite different. But by and large, this was a Kansas City script with a couple plot twists along the way.

This season in Stat Oddity:

The Least Valuable Player: The Turf

Before we get into the recap, the worst part of the game was the field surface in Arizona. If they really spent so much time and money growing this grass, then it was a waste as players were slipping all night. It did not really affect the outcome, and ultimately the game still had 73 points, but it sure would have been nice to see a better playing surface for the biggest game of the year.

This stadium has hosted some great big games, and god knows the Cardinals aren’t using it much in January and February, so when they bring the Super Bowl back to Arizona, hopefully the field will be better than this.

The First Quarter: Early Fireworks

Right from the start this was looking like an explosive Super Bowl with both offenses scoring a touchdown with their go-to players getting it done with Jalen Hurts on the QB sneak and Travis Kelce on a well-designed 18-yard route.

But you did also see some big hits, which became common in this game too. There was a lot of quality play all around, but an offensive pass interference penalty short-circuited the Eagles’ second possession for the first punt of the night.

So much for Mahomes and Kelce not being healthy, because the duo hooked up for a quick 60 yards on two drives to start the game. Kelce had just 23 yards against the Eagles last year, but you could throw that result out the window in this one as he still found ways to get wide open early.

But the Eagles would do a better job after those first three catches, and they also did a good job of holding down most of the other receivers on the night. Just enough pressure on Mahomes nearly forced an interception on a third down, but the Chiefs settled for a 42-yard field goal instead of going for a fourth-and-3.

This was probably Andy Reid’s biggest mistake of the night as the Eagles have been the more aggressive team and probably would have gone for that fourth down. Harrison Butker hit the left upright with his kick as he can often do on lower-pressure plays, and there went a golden opportunity for Kansas City’s first lead as the game went into the second quarter tied 7-7.

The Second Quarter: Eagles Do Their Thing

Over four months ago I was pointing out how historic the 2022 Eagles were in the second quarter. But even when the team was 6-0, I thought it was odd how they dominated that one quarter so much while not being special in the other three.

At 8-0, the Eagles had scored 133 points in the second quarter, the most points any team has had in any quarter through eight games in NFL history. This is why the Eagles were the third team since the 1970 merger to not trail in its first eight games. But this was clearly not going to sustainable. Would it be fatal down the stretch in a tight game and when the Eagles faced a legitimate quarterback for a change?

By season’s end, the Eagles were +116 in the second quarter and just +17 in the other three quarters combined. I did not think that was a good formula for the Chiefs, who we know can come back with the best of them.

But the second quarter was both as good as it got for the Eagles and a costly one as one huge mistake would haunt them.

The Eagles started their favorite quarter with Hurts taking a chance deep to A.J. Brown, and what looked like it may lead to defensive pass interference actually just laid in perfectly to the receiver for a 45-yard touchdown bomb.

The Chiefs went three-and-out after JuJu Smith-Schuster was clearly interfered with on third-and-8, but there was no penalty for some reason. More on that later.

After Hurts converted a third-and-8 with a brilliant scramble move, he really looked like the ultimate dual threat who was having a great game in his first Super Bowl. But then came the moment where the Eagles may have blown this one. One thing the team really struggled with all night was running the ball with the trio of backs, who combined for just 17 carries for 45 yards. If you thought Miles Sanders sucked against the Chiefs last year with 7 carries for 13 yards, he only had 7 carries for 16 yards in this one.

But on a second-and-1, it was Kenneth Gainwell who was stopped short to bring up third-and-1. No worries, the team who has turned the quarterback sneak into an even bigger cheat code would pick it up with ease. But that doesn’t happen when you get penalized for a false start as the timing was off for the Eagles. Huge mistake. On third-and-medium, Hurts tried a quarterback draw, but he just lost the ball on an unforced error, and Nick Bolton was there for the 36-yard scoop and score to tie the game.

It is so hard to win a Super Bowl when your offense coughs up a turnover for a touchdown, and that is the third time this season the Eagles did that in a game they went on to lose. The other time they just had four turnovers against Dallas, but this ended up being the only turnover in the whole game.

I was curious to see how Hurts responded to that blunder, but he did a great job and used his legs well to convert a ballsy fourth-and-5 with a 28-yard run by slipping a tackle. He also got another fourth-down conversion by drawing the Chiefs offsides in the red zone. The drive fittingly ended with Hurts running in his second touchdown on a successful draw to take a 21-14 lead with 2:20 left.

This was the part of the game in Super Bowl LV where the Chiefs really blew it against Tampa Bay. They had to answer here but it was another bad drive with Mahomes scrambling on a third down and apparently aggravating his ankle injury. He looked to be grimacing in pain much worse than he did when he initially had the injury against Jacksonville, and it was much worse than the third quarter against the Bengals when he tweaked it.

Chad Henne was apparently warming up, and this just felt like the Eagles catching another break with an injured quarterback. The Chiefs had the ball for just 8:06 in the first half as the Eagles dominated with long drives while Kansas City really did not show a lot after that hot opening drive. That makes 16 points for the offense in the last six quarters of Super Bowl action.

Things were looking poor for the Chiefs after getting outscored 17-7 in the quarter, and it could have been much worse without Hurts’ unforced error. It also would be nice if DeVonta Smith can make a cleaner catch down the sideline after his 35-yard grab was overturned to incomplete after a lengthy review. I can understand why they overturned it, but I was still surprised that they thought the evidence was conclusive enough to overturn the call on the field of a 35-yard catch.

That was a big reversal as it led to only a field goal and 24-14 lead for the Eagles at halftime. Still, this was looking like a Philadelphia script with an injured Mahomes even if the pass rush in this game was minimized.

Rihanna > Beyonce, forever and always, but moving onto the second half.

The Third Quarter: Here Come the Chiefs

With a half-hour halftime and Mr. White in the house to inject Mahomes with some Crystal Blue Persuasion, the MVP was able to return to the game and still looked good. The run game was also looking good for the Chiefs again, and Mahomes even took a play himself 14 yards after it looked like the Eagles were surprised he could still move like that.

Two plays later, Isiah Pacheco was in the end zone for a touchdown, and we had a game again at 24-21.

On the ensuing drive, Bolton thought he had another fumble touchdown, but the refs got the call right of a bang-bang play and no catch, no fumble for Sanders and the Eagles. What ensued was another painfully long drive with some incredible completions from Hurts to Dallas Goedert, including a third-and-14 conversion that took forever to review, but they got the call right as it was a catch this time.

The quarterback sneak worked for another fourth-and-1 for the Eagles, and this 7:45 drive was threatening to put the Eagles back up 10, but the pass defense stepped up and made a stop. The Eagles had a couple fourth downs already converted, and I was surprised that Nick Sirianni did not go for a fourth-and-6 at the Kansas City 15, understanding how much more valuable a 10-point lead is instead of 6 vs. 3.

But the Eagles settled for the 33-yard field goal and a 27-21 lead despite taking half the quarter with that drive. You can say Sirianni coached a pretty good Super Bowl when his biggest mistake in three quarters was not going for a fourth-and-6.

But with the Chiefs driving towards midfield, you could see where this one was heading.

The Fourth Quarter: Chiefs Do It Again

This postseason has sucked ass for drama, but maybe we would get something good here as it was the 18th Super Bowl in the last 20 years to be within one score in the fourth quarter. This postseason’s only fourth-quarter lead change was Jaguars vs. Chargers, and that was on the final play of the game. We needed something more dramatic here, and we absolutely got it.

JuJu, who I loved back in Pittsburgh his first two years and not so much after, was huge on this drive as he had three straight catches to put the ball at the 9-yard line. Incredibly, Marquez Valdes-Scantling had one target and no catches in the game after being so good against the Bengals. Kadarius Toney also had no touches on offense, so the Chiefs were getting almost everything out of Kelce, JuJu, and the running game.

But on a third-and-3, the Eagles completely blew a coverage and Toney was left wide open, not unlike his first NFL touchdown with the Chiefs against Jacksonville earlier this season. Andy Reid did it again. The Chiefs made the extra point to go up 28-27 and – STOP THE COUNT – they had their first lead and a lead for the 101st time in the last 102 games.

It also meant the 2022 Chiefs are the first team to have a fourth-quarter lead in 20 games in one season. But would they hang onto it to join the 1984 49ers and 2013 Seahawks as the only teams to do it in at least 19 games and win the Super Bowl? That is exclusive company for sure.

With the Eagles unable to run, it was going to be on Hurts’ shoulders, and he does not have the track record yet in these situations. Sure enough, the Eagles went three-and-out and this thing was going all Kansas City’s way. Toney returned the ensuing punt, after a little mix-up at the beginning, for 65 yards, nearly housing it, which likely would have earned him the MVP honors for this game. But his impact was felt as it was the longest punt return in Super Bowl history.

Not bad for a Kansas City team that had its longest punt return of the season against the Bengals (by Skyy Moore) to set up their game-winning drive last game out. Now they more than doubled that with this one by Toney. Speaking of Moore, he finished off this drive with yet another blown coverage by the Eagles as he was left all alone for a 4-yard touchdown. Way too easy.

Should the Chiefs have gone for two at 9:22 left? I think it was a little early to get the full benefit of that one, but I fully understand the argument by doing it. Still, it was 35-27 and this is out of the Eagles’ comfort zone.

However, when the QB sneak has been unstoppable all night, and the slants to Brown are open all night, the Eagles quickly moved the ball. Smith got wide open for a 45-yard bomb that if thrown a little better, he would have walked in for a touchdown. But on the next play, Hurts set a Super Bowl record with his third rushing touchdown at the quarterback position, giving him a record 18 for the season. He even finished the drive off with the game-tying two-point conversion as the league may have to interfere with the rule book to stop the Eagles’ dominance in short yardage. No more push sneaks in the near future? We’ll see.

But we were all tied up at 35 with 5:15 left. With the leaked script (read: a funny meme that some take too seriously) calling for a 37-34 win by the Eagles, you may have had it in the back of your mind that maybe the Chiefs screw this up after three straight touchdowns and the Eagles do win this one on a last-second field goal for a 38-35 win. The internet would go ape shit over that.

But no, Mahomes really is just different. He found Kelce for another catch that allowed him to hit his over (81 yards) by two yards, which cost me $700 in parlay wins, but no sour grapes here. Kelce now has nine straight games in the playoffs with over 75 receiving yards, three more than anybody else. Pacheco was able to convert the ensuing third-and-1 for a 10-yard gain.

Then came a definitive play. Mahomes scrambled right down the middle of the field for a 26-yard gain, looking pretty spry in the process and putting the Chiefs in field goal range. The rest of this drive was going to be very interesting strategy as the Eagles had three clock stoppages left, and the Chiefs could not afford to give them the ball back in a 38-35 game with nearly two full minutes left. Not after how easy the Eagles scored on the last drive.

The Chiefs even screwed this up with conservative play. A screen to JuJu gained nothing and brought up third-and-8. Mahomes just kind of lobbed one towards the end zone for JuJu on third down, which would have saved the Eagles’ last timeout, but there came the flag. Defensive holding on James Bradberry. Automatic first down.

I get why they called it, but I have to agree with FOX’s Greg Olsen. That is a very soft call on a night where the refs were swallowing the whistle. Bradberry tugged on the jersey, but the throw was also way off from the receiver, and I don’t think it was restrictive enough to say it drastically altered the play for the Chiefs. They got bailed out of a bad sequence with that call, and now the game was going to have a shit ending because the Chiefs were just going to set up the field goal.

For all the talk about referee Carl Cheffers screwing the Chiefs over in the past, his crew called just 3 penalties for 14 yards on the Chiefs in this game. He had gone 12 straight games calling at least 92 yards worth of penalties on both teams in Kansas City games, and 12 straight where the Chiefs had over 47.5 penalty yards.

So this was a surprise, and worse, there were just three penalties in the game on post-snap action, and they were all on the Eagles. The other six penalties were all your pre-snap things like false start, delay of game, neutral zone infraction, and offsides.

The refs tried to stay out of the story this week, but they had a huge impact on how this game would end. The part that pisses me off the most is how can they justify not calling the DPI on the Eagles on a JuJu coverage play on third down in the second quarter, but then they call this ticky tack crap? This inconsistency is what drives people nuts.

The Eagles did the right thing by offering the touchdown to the Chiefs, but Jerick McKinnon was wise to go down in bounds short of the end zone. Mahomes ended up taking two knees for minus-7 yards, meaning the Chiefs had 165 rushing yards before that happened. That is another big running day against the Eagles, who had their biggest statistical weakness at stopping the run this year (24th in yards per carry allowed), and last year the Chiefs ran for 200 yards on them for just the second time in the Mahomes era. This was another outstanding running day when you consider the Chiefs only had eight drives to score their 31 points. The Chiefs only had the ball for 24:13 and still scored 38 points. The only other time that has happened in the playoffs was when Andrew Luck led a 38-10 comeback against Reid’s 2013 Chiefs in a 45-44 win despite having the ball for 22:27.

For the anticlimactic finish, Butker just had to not go Blair Walsh and make a 27-yard field goal. He did it, and the Chiefs led 38-35 with 8 seconds left.

The Eagles returned the squib kick 11 yards before Gainwell gave himself up. Six seconds were eventually put back on the clock after it went down to 4 seconds, but either the Eagles didn’t seem to realize that, or they just blew the situation. There was no way Hurts could throw a Hail Mary over 65 yards with his shoulder injury, so the call should have been a quick pass to the sideline to get closer, or you do the laterals. Instead, Hurts held the ball and just threw a duck well short of the end zone and to no one in particular to end the game.

Conclusion

The Chiefs did it. Lesser defense filled with rookies, QB taking up 17% of the cap, injured skill players – none of it mattered. They also won this as a team as Mahomes’ 182 passing yards are tied for his fifth fewest in a game. He got the big run support, he got the fumble return touchdown, and he got the longest punt return in Super Bowl history. Mahomes was the right call to win Super Bowl MVP for making very few mistakes all night and still leading the offense to 31 points on eight drives with a missed field goal, but he still won this with the kind of team support we usually don’t see behind an MVP in a big game like this.

For the Eagles, it is a letdown for sure. I can say Hurts has still never beat a good quarterback on a good team in the NFL, but this game raised my respect for him. The fumble was an unfortunate blunder, but those happen. Mahomes just did it against the Bengals two weeks ago. Hurts was leading the MVP race most of the night as his run game and defense severely let him down as the 70-sack defense proved to be a paper tiger in the end. They were rarely tested this year, and when they faced the Chiefs, they folded with no sacks, very little pressure, and those blown coverages in the red zone are inexcusable.

Incredibly, the Eagles (70) and Chiefs (55) led the NFL in sacks this year with 125 between them, yet the only two in this game were on scramble plays where Hurts twice ran out of bounds for a small loss. Not even legitimate sacks in my view.

Mahomes got the ball off in 2.69 seconds on average according to Next Gen Stats. He is now 47-4 when he gets the ball out in under 2.9 seconds, so this game was above average for his release time even if it wasn’t quite the 2.32 seconds from last year’s meeting.

To close a week where we celebrated LeBron James breaking the NBA’s all-time scoring record that lasted almost 40 years, we just witnessed another great achievement for Mahomes in winning a Super Bowl with this team. It is not quite up to the level of LeBron knocking off the 73-9 Warriors, but to overcome all the negative perceptions of this team being too inexperienced, too pass happy, too imbalanced, and too injured, this is a big deal. I agree with Mahomes that this win means even more than 2019 did for him.

There is a long offseason ahead to be talking about their chances at ending the repeat drought, and Philadelphia’s chances at getting right back to this game as the NFC is not the toughest path right now.

But I am going to let this one marinate, go up to bed in a good mood as it’s always an easier offseason when the Super Bowl goes the way you wanted it to, and this is the end of my 12th season covering the NFL. I would say I look forward to the break from football, but I am scheduled for multiple XFL and NBA pieces this week, so it looks like I will be keeping busy for the next six months until we do it all over again for the 2023 NFL season.

Unless the aliens get past our space lasers.

NFL Super Bowl LVII Preview: Chiefs vs. Eagles

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I guess I got one more Super Bowl preview left in me. This is the only place where I post my final score prediction, but it has been a long two weeks to get to this point. I don’t know how many times I wrote about the oddities of 42-30 from last year’s meeting, or why I love Jalen Hurts as a touchdown scorer who might even do it on The Philly Special II, or why the referees (Carl Cheffers) are worth betting on for a flag fest.

Seriously, play those penalty props wherever you can find them (over in total yards, over in Kansas City penalty yards):

But unlike the last round where I ended up changing both my picks from Sunday to Saturday to the Chiefs and Eagles winning, I have not moved on this game.

The Eagles should win Super Bowl LVII, but the Chiefs certainly can pull it off.

This is already the third Super Bowl for Patrick Mahomes, the two-time MVP, and once again he goes up against the best pass defense he could from the NFC. Argue all you want about the 49ers being a better overall defense than the Eagles, but Mahomes already shredded that unit in Week 7.

I feel like I’m just going to keep recycling my old Mahomes Super Bowl content for these matchups.

Teams like the Eagles usually beat teams like the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, but what if Mahomes is just different? I wrote that from scratch, but after checking, yep, I pretty much wrote this already about Super Bowl LIV against the 49ers:

There are a lot of areas that favor the 49ers, and I think historically the 49ers are the type of team more likely to win this game than a team like the Chiefs. There are just more ways for the 49ers to win while practically every positive outcome for Kansas City involves Mahomes playing really well. 

Defense wins championships. Football teams are built in the trenches. Hyped QB matchups usually disappoint in the Super Bowl. That’s what I’d write about Chiefs vs. Eagles, and that’s also probably what I wrote about Chiefs vs. Buccaneers two years ago in Super Bowl LV. Oh look, I did.

Defense wins championships. Football games are decided in the trenches. Overhyped quarterback matchups tend to disappoint.

This is why I really do see Super Bowl LVII as a game that will either be like Chiefs-49ers where Mahomes and the offense figure it out in the 4Q to win or at least make it a 3-4 point game/tight finish, or it is going to be another blowout like Chiefs-Buccaneers where the pass rush is all over the QB on the injured ankle and the secondary is all over the injured receivers and shut downs Travis Kelce again.

Tale as old as time, right?

I’ve said this year that the Eagles are a team that’s dying to blow a 14 or 17-point lead in the playoffs after a dominant first half. Maybe the offense goes into turtle mode. Maybe the famed QB push sneak they’ve perfected gets stopped on a key fourth-and-1 to give the Chiefs new life. Maybe Jalen Hurts just has another off game against a young defense has has showed some improvement down the stretch.

The problem I have in this game is that it really takes Philadelphia uncharacteristically screwing up (like a turnover party) for the Chiefs to probably win. Otherwise, it is going to have to be a Mahomes masterclass, and I’m just not sure the offense is healthy or talented enough for him to do that in this matchup. The Eagles holding Kelce to 23 yards and holding everyone not named Tyreek Hill (186 yards) under 25 yards last year bugs me, because they’ve only gotten better in the pass rush and secondary with the additions of Haason Reddick and James Bradberry. Not to mention AJ. Brown on offense, who crushed the Chiefs in the last time the Chiefs were blown out (27-3 against the Titans last year).

In fact, there is so much history on the line in this game, and that’s why I want to get to my links because I wrote about it all (multiple times) the last two weeks. I’ll obviously recap what did and did not happen in the final Stat Oddity of the season tomorrow night, but let’s get to all the Super Bowl links I feel like sharing.

My Super Bowl Content:

Final Super Bowl LVII Prediction

I would love nothing more than a high-scoring, close Super Bowl that is an instant classic. Maybe it’s a 27-24 game (or 37-34 if you saw the leaked script, wink wink nudge nudge). Hopefully we get an 18th Super Bowl in the last 20 that is within one score in the fourth quarter.

But a lot of times these Super Bowls disappoint. Just look at two of the last four years when we had 13-3 and 31-9, two games where a team didn’t even score a touchdown. This 2022 NFL season has been filled with disappointing and low-scoring island games. The playoffs have been very disappointing as the only game with a fourth-quarter lead change was Chargers-Jaguars, and even that happened on the final snap so we couldn’t see how the Chargers would answer.

We really need something great to end this season on a high note, and I just don’t see it here. I think the Eagles revert to the team they were during the 8-0 start, meaning a dominant second quarter before they settle in the range of 21-to-29 points, and I’ll give the Chiefs just enough points to look respectable after last time’s embarrassment of scoring 9. But even in that game they dropped two touchdown opportunities.

I just keep coming back to the difference in the trenches, the difference in health at the skill players, the depth of the Eagles, and the way they aren’t afraid to go for fourth downs. I can’t even trust the Chiefs to convert a third-and-1 this year, and I sure don’t expect them to QB sneak it on fourth-and-1. Throw in the Carl Cheffers, Chiefs nemesis, angle at referee, and the Chiefs might be getting the short end of the stick there too.

I think it will look closer to Chiefs-49ers than Chiefs-Buccaneers, because Hurts doesn’t have that LOAT edge like Tom Brady. But if Chad Henne plays a significant role in this game, I’ll immediately change my mind on that. But I think it’s closer to Chiefs-49ers, and maybe this time Mahomes just doesn’t have Hill to convert a third-and-15 to. The roster weakness they covered up so well all year ultimately comes back to bite them in the Super Bowl against the No. 1 pass defense after too many injuries sustained in the last two playoff games. That’d be a damn shame, but it’s what I see happening in this one.

Forgive me if I rushed through this preview and it’s not as neatly organized and in depth like they used to be for the Super Bowl, but when you’re writing for four sites for 13 days about this one game, you just want to get to kickoff tomorrow at 6:30. I’m wiped out.

I cannot promise a good game tomorrow night, but I can promise a worthy recap to put it in its rightful place in history. But let’s hope I’m wrong I’m on this one.

Final: Eagles 27, Chiefs 20 (Super Bowl MVP: Haason Reddick)

NFL Stat Oddity: 2022 Conference Championship Games

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

After 283 games, the 2022 NFL season will still come down to a battle of No. 1 seeds with 16-3 records. The Philadelphia Eagles crushed the San Francisco 49ers 31-7, and the Kansas City Chiefs outlasted the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20.

I hate going against my gut – 49ers-Bengals was last Sunday’s initial pick – but working on these games all week changed my mind multiple times. By Saturday when I posted my final score predictions, I was able to nail the proper framing too.

Turnovers from the quarterback position did in the 49ers on the road, though I never imagined Josh Johnson to be part of the story. San Francisco finishes the season 0-5 with multiple turnovers and 15-0 without multiple turnovers.

The Chiefs exposed the backups on Cincinnati’s main weakness, the offensive line, and they made Joe Burrow pay with five sacks and shut down the run. Chris Jones stepped up with his fair pair of playoff sacks and even the special teams showed up late to help Patrick Mahomes and the offense on a day where health was in short supply.

What does it mean for Super Bowl 57?

  • We will not see the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to start a Super Bowl after Brock Purdy injured his elbow on just his third dropback of the game.
  • We will not see a team on a 13-game winning streak (49ers) take on a team on an 11-game winning streak (Bengals) as both teams lost on the road.
  • We will get the Andy Reid Bowl. The Kelce Bowl. The best quarterback vs. the No. 1 pass defense. Plenty of time to talk about that one the next two weeks.

So, let’s recap a Championship Sunday that had one massive disappointment and one great game that really cements Bengals-Chiefs as the top rivalry in the NFL right now.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Bengals at Chiefs: The Rivalry Is On After Chiefs Survive Thriller

After how terrible the NFC game was, you had to hope we were in store for something good here as these teams only seem to know how to play 3-point games against each other.

This was the least-efficient offensive game between the two, but the intensity and stakes were never higher. Last year, the Bengals were more of a curiosity than a confident team playing in the championship game. They proved they could come back again from a big deficit against these Chiefs. Then for the first time in this series in Week 13 this year, they showed they can control the game too and again close out the win by outplaying the Chiefs in the fourth quarter.

But this time, the Bengals outscored the Chiefs in the fourth quarter and still lost after Kansas City got the full team effort it needed to survive this one. While I still would have drafted wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase over offensive tackle Penei Sewell, a game like this does push the needle in favor of the line over receivers when it comes to building around a great quarterback talent.

The Bengals were unfortunately down three offensive line starters for the second week in a row, but unlike in snowy Buffalo without Von Miler, those chickens came home to roost again with Burrow taking five sacks and the running backs held to 13 carries for 41 yards. When your offense is one-dimensional and the protection is that bad, it gets harder to take advantage of the injuries the Chiefs suffered on defense, including their best corner (L’Jarius Sneed) four plays into the game and linebacker Willie Gay.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs came into the week with  Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain hogging all the injury coverage, then a Friday practice back injury for Travis Kelce popped up, and during the game, the Chiefs lost JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, and Mecole Hardman at wide receiver. The Chiefs only gave Mahomes 17 carries for 34 yards in run support in this game.

This team was running on fumes by the end of the game, but Mahomes and Kelce are just exceptional talents and they got just enough help from the rest of the team to pull this one out.

The First Quarter: Lucky It Wasn’t KC 14-0

The Chiefs came out hot with three sacks on the first two drives, including the first sack of Chris Jones’ postseason career. Somehow it took him 14 games to break through, but he picked the best time as I thought he might with the deficiencies the Bengals have. He even did it on a third down and made sure to hold Burrow up and not take him down to draw an egregious penalty.

On offense, things were looking like business as usual for Mahomes and Kelce, who showed no glaring signs of injury like you may have expected after last week and Kelce getting a game-time decision tag. Kelce even tried a designed lateral to Jerick McKinnon in the field of play in the first quarter. The ball was a little off, but McKinnon fortunately got on it for the recovery.

But missed opportunities were a big theme for the Chiefs early. Kadarius Toney could not come down with a 25-yard touchdown on a third down on the opening drive on a well-thrown ball, and the Chiefs wasted a challenge on that call.

Isiah Pacheco showed great effort on a 9-yard touchdown run that was wiped out by a holding penalty, and the Chiefs had to settle for a second field goal and 6-0 lead one play into the second quarter.

The Second Quarter: More Missed Opportunities for Chiefs

Maybe Burrow needed to warm up his LOAT magic on a very cold night, because he took his fourth sack on a ninth dropback and was facing third-and-14. But he converted to Tyler Boyd, who also had a 24-yard catch two plays later before eventually leaving the game with an injury too.

But that drive also ended with a field goal after Hayden Hurst was unable to come down with a nice pass in the end zone not much unlike the Chiefs’ miss with Toney on their first drive. It was 6-3.

The Chiefs ended up getting a fantastic, season-best game out of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, the mistake-prone No. 2 receiver from Green Bay. He had back-to-back plays gain 40 yards, and he finished with 116 yards and a touchdown.

But after Mahomes took a sack he may have normally escaped, it was fourth-and-1. Instead of throwing into the flat, Mahomes held the ball and was able to find Kelce in the end zone for a 14-yard shot to take a 13-3 lead.

Just when you think it may not be Cincy’s day, Burrow threw a pick and the Chiefs could have gone up 20-3 in the first half not much unlike last year’s game before losing it in overtime. But Mahomes threw three incompletions from the Cincinnati 39 and the Chiefs punted on a surprisingly weak three-and-out.

Burrow then tried to throw deep and it was intercepted on a deflection, but that was negated by a 20-yard penalty on the defense. Was this the beginning of the comeback? The Bengals got a two-minute drive going and Tee Higgins was the big target with a 21-yard catch down to the Kansas City 5 with the clock going under 20 seconds.

This is where I think Burrow screwed up. Instead of quickly lining up for a spike and saving a solid 10-11 seconds for two shots into the end zone, he went for the fade on first down, and it was a rushed, poor throw that had no shot of scoring. That wasted too much time, and Burrow’s next pass was also incomplete with 4 seconds left. They had to kick the field goal at that point and trail 13-6 at the half. I think either spike on first down or save the timeout he used earlier in the drive. Somewhere, a spike should have happened to give them more valid shots at the end zone.

But it was only 13-6 and you could sense some disappointment that the Chiefs were not up much more after all the opportunities in that half.

The Third Quarter: The Turning Point (Burrow Willed It)

So much for the Chiefs coming out hot to make up for the last offensive series. They went three-and-out again.

Like he did last year in the title game, Burrow, who led the game with 30 rushing yards, showed some good scrambling skills on a third down, then he finished the drive with a 27-yard touchdown pass to Tee Higgins to tie the game. Just a perfect throw to a spot where only the best No. 2 wideout in the game could get it over two defenders.

Now we had a game, and the game had a turning point. The Chiefs had gone 60 minutes of real time without a first down before Mahomes scrambled and found Hardman on a third-and-4 with a strike for 11 yards. But not only did Hardman get injured and left the game on this play, but Mahomes likely aggravated his ankle injury and was hobbling around after the play:

Ouch. Two plays later, Mahomes hung in the pocket with good protection and threw to an uncovered MVS, who charged ahead for 25 yards. MVS would later stretch the ball out on a third-down play to get just enough forward progress to convert and extend the drive after the Chiefs used their final challenge.

After Mahomes took a sack, it was third-and-10. He hung in there and delivered perhaps his best bullet of the night with a 19-yard touchdown strike to MVS in the end zone to give the Chiefs a 20-13 lead.

Mahomes gutted it out on that drive, but after the Bengals went three-and-out, the Chiefs blew another golden opportunity to go up two scores going into the final quarter.

First, you rarely ever seen an offensive lineman penalized for taunting, but that happened to Andrew Wylie, which wasted 15 of the 25 yards the Chiefs gained on another third-down conversion to MVS. But after reaching the Cincinnati 46, Mahomes had his worst moment of the game when he mishandled the ball on a throw, and it fell out of his hands for his first career playoff fumble lost:

This is when you really do start believing that Burrow has that Brady luck in him after seeing such an unforced error like that at midfield. Playoff hero Sam Hubbard got on the ball of course.

But the Bengals had a decision to make after the Chiefs massacred Samaje Perine on a third-down catch to end the quarter and bring up a fourth-and-6 at the Kansas City 41.

The Fourth Quarter: Frantic Finish

Hard to disagree with going for it here, and Burrow just threw it up for Chase, who came down with it in coverage for 35 yards, the only 30-yard play in the game. Just a great receiver and a confident quarterback. Perine finished the drive in the end zone and the game was tied at 20. It is the first fourth-quarter touchdown drive led by Burrow in a playoff game.

There was a noticeable decline in Mahomes’ quality of play after he aggravated the injury in the third quarter. He was not immobile or worthless, but he was not as accurate and under control like he was early in the game. I counted at least three plays in the second half where he really flirted with a backwards lateral or a pass that was barely forward as he tried to get the ball out to someone in the flat.

One of those plays was a pass to McKinnon, who dropped it upon quick review. That should have stopped the clock to bring up a third-and-9, but the clock was told to run at the ready for play, and a few seconds did erroneously come off before the third down was snapped, which was a short completion, I believe. The Chiefs were going to punt, then we were told the play was blown dead and never should have counted, which gave the Chiefs another crack at it.

I guess they technically got it fixed, but that was not a good look for the officials, and not a good break for the Bengals. Sure enough, a Mahomes sack was wiped out by defensive holding on Eli Apple of all people, and the Chiefs had a first down.

However, Mahomes was off again, and the drive stalled. Burrow had his chance to take the lead, but his third-and-3 arm punt was intercepted way down at the Kansas City 14 with 6:53 left. It effectively served as a 50-yard punt, though I think he could have got the first down with a safer, smarter play.

But for the third time in the game, the Chiefs drove into Cincinnati territory and came away with no points and not even a field goal attempt. The Bengals had an interesting choice after the Chiefs were penalized for holding. They could either put the Chiefs in third-and-22 and out of field-goal range, or decline the penalty to make it fourth-and-8 at the Cincinnati 37. I think Zac Taylor made the right call to decline as you hate to give Mahomes another shot on third down. From the 37, a 55-yard field goal would be tough in those cold conditions.

I think Reid surprised a lot of people when he chose the punt, which felt like the worst option, which is backed up by at least one set of data:

When you risk the potential of never seeing the ball again, I think a long field goal or letting Mahomes throw is viable. Tough decision, and it was not looking good after the way the defense was approaching the drive.

After Burrow was hit with a questionable intentional grounding penalty, it was third-and-16. You do not expect them to convert, but Hurst was left wide open for 23 yards after a blown coverage.

Was Burrow really about to do this on the road?

No, false alarm. The drive stalled after Burrow was sacked by Chris Jones on third-and-8 for the fifth sack of the game. That tends to be the magic number for playing Cincinnati.

In the last 31 games, Burrow is now 21-1 when he takes fewer than five sacks and 1-8 when he takes at least five sacks. There was a long gap between sack No. 4 and sack No. 5, but Jones made the biggest play when it was needed the most.

The defense did its part. Then it was the special teams’ turn. After an underwhelming rookie season for Skyy Moore with some big fumbles on returns, he almost doubled his longest punt return of the season with a 29-yard return to set up Mahomes at his own 47 with 30 seconds and one timeout left. It was the longest punt return of the season for the Chiefs, so good timing there.

We know Mahomes can set up a field goal in record time, but this drive was not going great, and you had to start thinking about seeing the new overtime rules in effect. But on a third-and-4, Mahomes scrambled the best he could and was able to get out of bounds after the marker for a first down. Unfortunately for the Bengals, Joseph Ossai, a second-year linebacker, let his instincts take over and he pushed Mahomes while he was clearly out of bounds and that resulted in a 15-yard flag.

It was not a smart play, but I don’t think I can crucify the player for this one. These quarterbacks are getting tricky with the way they slide down late or decide to stay in bounds sometimes and get more yards. But that was definitely a killer as it made the field goal 45 yards instead of 60 if they would even try it from that far. There also would have been a little time to get closer with a fresh set of downs, but the Chiefs were out of timeouts, so play calls would be very limited there. Just a massive penalty, and probably a gift.

I keep waiting for Harrison Butker to screw the Chiefs in a big game since he misses enough makeable kicks in the regular season to think he might be untrustworthy, but he keeps getting the job done in the playoffs. He was good from 45 yards and the Chiefs led 23-20 with 3 seconds left. That was only enough time for the Bengals to try a lateral play on the kick return that never went anywhere.

Three of the NFL’s last four drives in the final 40 seconds of a playoff game to win it or force overtime with a field goal have been led by Mahomes with Butker kicking a field goal:

In every sense of the word, the Chiefs survived this game, which is what they were going to have to do with the health situation this week. Now they hopefully can get some good rest and be fresher for the Super Bowl in two weeks, because the Eagles are going to be a difficult opponent.

As for the Bengals, that is now all seven playoff games in the Burrow era ending with the Bengals scoring 19-to-27 points and not allowing more than 24 points. Only Joe Montana (five games in 1981-84) in the early days of the 49ers dynasty had a streak anywhere near that in playoff history.

But we need to chill on the Joe Cool nickname here. I hope Burrow changes his stance here on “Who cares about third-down sacks?” His season largely just ended on one.

An embarrassing Mahomes fumble, a conservative punt decision from Reid, and a blown coverage on third-and-16 – this could have been the unholy trinity to kill another Kansas City postseason short of a championship.

Burrow’s fifth sack on third down by Jones, the 29-yard punt return by Moore, and the 15-yard penalty gift from Ossai – this holy trifecta saved Kansas City’s season and has them in the Super Bowl for the third time in four years.

It took a full team effort for the Chiefs to win this one, and we do not always see that from their wins, but it was the right mix of all three units coming through this time.

I was going to make a section here at the end to describe the Chiefs Twitter brouhaha from earlier this week, but there are two weeks and then some to write about legacies and such things. More importantly, my motivation to write defensively over nonsense at 4:38 A.M. after the team I wanted to win won this dramatic game is just not there. So, I’ll only say be glad that the Chiefs did not fall to 2-3 in home title games, which the favorite wins 72.1% of the time now (62-24).

Be glad they are not 0-4 against these cocky Bengals. Be glad we don’t have to hear “Burrowhead” bullshit, and hopefully the Cincinnati mayor is given a gag order the next time they are in the playoffs.

The Chiefs came through this time, but in the words of Kobe Bryant, the job’s not finished.

49ers at Eagles: Purdy Got Hurt and Hurts Was Purdy Bad

Well, that fvcking sucked.

The NFC’s Game of the Year was a matchup I was looking forward to for a few months now, but it could not have gone much worse than it did in Philadelphia’s 31-7 win.

Rarely do you say a playoff game was decided by each team’s first possession, but that was basically the case here as everything spiraled from the Eagles getting a touchdown they didn’t deserve and Brock Purdy’s elbow injury.

  • The Eagles got a fraudulent touchdown because the referees missed a catch that wasn’t a catch, and Kyle Shanahan was asleep at the wheel with his challenge flag.
  • Purdy was injured (elbow) on his third dropback.
  • The 49ers were sloppy and gave the Eagles a second touchdown drive on a drive that featured three defensive penalties for an automatic first down.
  • Backup quarterback Josh Johnson apparently hasn’t done much two-minute drill work with his 13 NFL teams in his career as he fumbled a snap that led to a 30-yard touchdown drive.
  • A weak roughing the punter was called to extend Philadelphia’s fourth touchdown drive and 28-7 lead.
  • I guess you can only prepare so much on the fly with the Wildcat and using Christian McCaffrey as your emergency QB, but there was a terrible Deebo Samuel run on a fourth-and-2 that set up the Eagles for their final scoring drive (field goal), and even that one included an embarrassing unnecessary roughness penalty on Dre Greenlaw for punching at the ball.
  • After a near fight and Trent Williams showing he had enough of this shit, Deebo had one more brutal fourth-down run where he tried to be Superman but just lost 7 yards and fumbled for technically the third lost fumble of the game for the 49ers.
  • Eagles finally ran out the clock to end this stinker.

But back to that opening drive. You see the 49ers bring pressure on Jalen Hurts, he gets off a low but catchable ball to A.J. Brown for 10 yards on third-and-8, and you think this is going to be a very good game like it should have been.

Then the Eagles go for a fourth-and-3, Hurts is a little too far with the ball, but DeVonta Smith appeared to make this incredible diving catch for 29 yards down to the 6. You think with the way he reacted to hurry up to the line and run the next play that even he knew he didn’t catch it because the ball was loose on the ground, but there was no challenge from Kyle Shanahan. What the hell, man? It probably wasn’t going to get any bigger in the first half than a complete or incomplete call on a fourth down in scoring territory.

The Eagles scored a pretty easy 6-yard rushing touchdown two plays later with Miles Sanders to take a 7-0 lead they didn’t deserve. Maybe the official’s view of the ball was obscured, but where is the expedited review from the booth to correct that one? Where is the challenge from Shanahan? Just failure all around and good luck for the Eagles.

Who knows how the game plays out if the 49ers take over at their own 35 in a 0-0 game, but the Philadelphia pass rush was definitely an issue for what is a good line in San Francisco. I was worried about Brock Purdy making mistakes in this game, but little did I know it’d go down like this.

It’s such a shame too because what a story this rookie was. He completed his first two passes. Nothing that will blow your socks off, but successful gains of 9 and 10 yards to George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk (his only catch of the game).

Then at the 50-yard line, everything changed. Purdy was hit on the arm just as he was trying to release the ball, and Haason Reddick got him just in time for it to be a strip-sack with clear recovery by the Eagles. Nick Sirianni was not asleep at the wheel and got the challenge off, and he got the ball. Purdy was out with an elbow injury and Josh Johnson had to warm up.

The Eagles actually went three-and-out with a very conservative drive. Reddick sacked Johnson on his first dropback to welcome him to the game. Neither offense was doing much as this was starting to look like last year’s 17-11 matchup.

Eventually, the 49ers were winning the field position battle and used a short field (46 yards) to tie the game with Christian McCaffrey doing the heavy lifting on a great 23-yard touchdown run.

The 49ers stopped Hurts on a third-and-2 run, but the Eagles boldly went for it on fourth-and-1 at their own 35. It paid off as Hurts again converted on the sneak.

From there, the 49ers gave up three first downs via penalty, including a big one on third-and-7 that I really wasn’t feeling DPI on Jimmie Ward against A.J. Brown. The other calls looked more legit, and the marathon drive went on until Sanders again scored from 13 yards out, untouched to take a 14-7 lead.

I even said on Twitter that the 49ers had to be careful here. Going into the locker room at 14-7 would not be that bad when you get the ball to start the third. But they tried to go hurry up and that’s when Johnson just flat out dropped the ball on a horrible play that the Eagles recovered 30 yards away from the end zone. They only needed four snaps to cover that before Boston Scott ripped off a 10-yard touchdown run that also looked too easy against an elite run defense.

The Eagles led 21-7 at halftime and things looked bleak.

Just when you thought the 49ers still had a chance after converting a third-and-13 to start the third quarter, Johnson was knocked out with a concussion. Well, it sure does suck that Jimmy Garoppolo was just not quite healthy enough to get back this week as there was hope he’d be available for the Super Bowl.

The 49ers’ emergency option was CMC, and he just took a handoff from Purdy, who came back in the game, for a 4-yard gain and punt.

Could Purdy throw? Apparently not as he would throw just two short passes in the entire second half despite having to finish the game for Johnson. The 49ers really did nothing that unique or fun with Samuel and CMC, though you can hardly blame them for not preparing more offense beyond the third-string rookie quarterback they brought into this game. Just a disastrous year for quarterback injuries for this team.

Meanwhile, Donovan McNabb fvcking wept as Hurts was getting bailed out from a very weak performance in this game.

The 49ers had the top-ranked defense, but he did not even look under duress as much as the 49ers quarterbacks did (or Joe Burrow later in the day), and even the coverage was not all that tight on his receivers. But Hurts’ accuracy was poor, he got the 29-yard gain to Smith that should have been incomplete, and he finished this game with 121 passing yards on 25 attempts.

That is 4.84 YPA in a championship game the Eagles won 31-7. It’s the first time a quarterback won a conference championship game by 14+ points with a YPA under 5.0 since Steve McNair against the 1999 Jaguars with Tennessee (33-14 win with 4.9 YPA).

It wasn’t even that great of a rushing day for Hurts, who finished with 11 runs for 39 yards. It just so happens that 29 of those yards, and his 15th rushing touchdown of the season, came after the 49ers were penalized for a brutal roughing the punter penalty to negate a fourth-and-6 punt from midfield.

I felt like the defender was blocked into the punter. Either way, it should be a really unnecessary hit to count as roughing the punter, and that one was weak in my view. But the Eagles turned it into another touchdown and this was over at 28-7 late in the third quarter.

If Purdy could physically throw, I believe they would have tried more. But it just did not happen in this game. The fourth quarter was just watching the 49ers get more and more frustrated with themselves as Samuel and McCaffrey couldn’t sustain drives for them with zero passing game. This isn’t Army vs. Navy after all.

Then the ruckus late in the fourth quarter was a bad look with Williams and K’Von Wallace getting ejected.

That was just a trash game, and we’ll never know what Purdy would have did without the injury. Maybe he has a decent game and it puts more pressure on Hurts, who did not look good at all to me.

But this seems to be what happens when the Eagles face a good team. The health of the opposing quarterback is just not there, and sure enough, they are getting Mahomes in the Super Bowl after he appeared to aggravate his ankle injury. We know he’s going to play, and both these quarterbacks can use the time off before this one, but we’ll see how the Chiefs handle that pass rush.

I think they handle it better than the Bengals would have, but I have two weeks to overanalyze a game where both fan bases will think I hate their team when the reality is I have a clear rooting interest in this one.

NFL 2022 Conference Championship Game Predictions

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

After the games ended last Sunday, I had a very clear prediction in mind for this week that it would be Cincinnati vs. San Francisco in the Super Bowl.

But as the week has gone on, I’ve done a 180 on both games, and maybe a 270 would be more accurate as I’m torn on both as I can see good arguments for every team to win.

This usually doesn’t happen for me, but this is also an unusual pair of games for Championship Sunday. It is looking like it will be just the third time where both games had a spread under 3 points. There have only been 12 games out of 104 since 1970 in this round that had a spread under 3 points, and the kicker is 10 of those 12 games were still decided by double digits.

I wrote previews this week, and now I may be giving conflicting final picks because I really am not sure on either game. I’d say all four possible Super Bowl matchups have just about a 25% split of happening, which I would almost never say about a final four.

Hopefully the games will be good, because last week was not.

Teaser picks for both games (total and spread).

San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

Full preview link

How the 49ers can upset the Eagles

NFC-CG Props

It comes down to this: Eagles are the last team standing that have no glaring flaw, while the 49ers have to overcome a rookie QB making his first road playoff start against the No. 1 pass defense that has 70 sacks and great corner play. NFL history alone would tell you the Eagles win this game and possibly by more than one possession, but we also know Kyle Shanahan has had his teams very close in the playoffs. They have blown a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter of a Super Bowl and NFC-CG.

And No. 1 defenses also fare pretty well this time of year, but again, the Eagles are quite good on that side of the ball too. Brock Purdy hasn’t lost a start yet, but Jalen Hurts has lost one all year for this team and it still took four giveaways (three, really, with a junk fumble TD padding the stats) and an insane day on 3rd down by the Washington offense.

I think Purdy makes dangerous decisions because that’s what you’d expect from Mr. Irrelevant, but I keep seeing the Seahawks and Cowboys fail to make him pay for it. I think the Eagles make him pay, and I think they get just enough out of the ground game and using Hurts’ legs to win this one.

But it should be a game that comes down to turnovers, which isn’t something that we’ve seen a lot of this postseason like we usually do. Hell, the Jaguars won a game by being -5 in turnovers, Bills were negative against Miami and won, the NYG-MIN game had none, and the Bills were also down 27-10 with a minute to play against the Bengals before a turnover (meaningless one). The biggest turnover this postseason so far is the QB sneak by the Ravens against the Bengals.

But why turnovers? The defenses involved here, and the fact that the 49ers are 15-0 with 0-1 turnovers and 0-4 with 2+ turnovers this year. The Eagles have two 4-turnover games in losses and Gardner Minshew threw a pick-six in the third loss against New Orleans.

I think the Eagles force enough mistakes from the rookie to end this 12-game winning streak for the 49ers.

Final: Eagles 27, 49ers 20

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

Full AFC Championship Game prevew

Early week preview on this game

AFC-CG Props

This spread has gone crazy from KC -2.5 to CIN -2.5 to CIN -1 to KC -1.5 as no one knows what to really make of Patrick Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain. We’ll just have to see Sunday, but with the spread and the Chiefs not even listing him on the final injury report, it would sound like it’s business as usual. Mahomes’ O/U is even 283.5 passing yards, and the Bengals have held him to 275 or less in the last three meetings. Travis Kelce popping up with a back injury is concerning though.

I’ll address the Twitter brouhaha more in Stat Oddity tomorrow night after we see what happens, but all I’ve been saying is it would be a bad look for what was supposed to be the NFL’s next dynasty to do this:

  • Lose 31-9 in the Super Bowl vs. Tampa while getting badly outcoached on both sides of the ball
  • Go 1-3 vs. two chief rivals in AFC last year (Bills and Bengals)
  • That includes the 2021 AFC Championship Game loss where the Chiefs were a 7-point home favorite, blew the biggest home lead (21-3) in title game history by Mahomes botching the end of the first half and getting zero points there, then falling victim to a three-man rush to take four sacks in the fourth quarter, almost have a season-ending fumble in the red zone that was recovered by the line, almost throw an overtime pick on second down, then get intercepted on third down to set up the Bengals at midfield for their game-winning field goal.
  • Then to go 0-2 vs. chief rivals (BUF/CIN) again this year with Mahomes throwing a game-ending INT vs. Bills and Kelce fumbling against the Bengals and Mahomes taking a third-down sack that led to a missed 55-yard FG before the Bengals ran out the clock.
  • But they beat the Jaguars last week and Buffalo lost badly, so here we are again in Arrowhead for the title game. But the Chiefs will fall to 2-3 in AFC title games and 3-4 in all championship games in the Mahomes era if they do not win this game, for which they are again favored as they have been in all 13 playoff games.
  • If Andy Reid loses this game, he will be 3-5 in title games at home in his career, and he and Bill Cowher will account for 8-of-17 (47.1%) title game losses as a home favorite in the salary cap era.

Some would say that’s a bad look, or disappointing. But I am still trying to adjust to this new logic introduced this week that simply being in these games means more than winning or losing them, or even losing more of them than you win.

I think this game could have a Colts-Patriots 2003 AFC Championship Game level of impact on the league for the next 10-to-15 years. The narratives could be absurd, especially if the winner goes on to finish the job in the Super Bowl.

But as for the matchup, I’m most interested in seeing if Mahomes’ injury is relevant or if he looks normal as could be, which seems miraculous given the usual nature of this injury. But beyond that, can this actually be a benefit to the Chiefs if it causes Reid to call a much different game that gets the ball out faster from the pocket so Mahomes doesn’t have to use his legs that much?

The Bengals have done a fantastic job of making Mahomes hold the ball. Sometimes it was the three-time rush, and sometimes it has just been making him indecisive and watching him scramble too much. This has been a common theme in most of KC’s losses since 2020. The last 5 times he’s lost, which includes the 0-3 record vs. Cincinnati, were games where Mahomes held he ball over 3.0 seconds per throw. His two worst games in that stat the last two years are against the Bengals, who even had him up to 4.0 seconds in the 2nd half of the title game last year when they went 3-man rush on 45% of passes.

Then in 2020, we know that Mahomes had almost 500 scramble yards on passes in both losses against the Raiders and Buccaneers. Making him scramble for his life has been effective, and I just wonder if the Bengals dial up more blitzes in this one to test his mobility. How does KC answer? With more screens to RBs, with more of Pacheco on the ground, more involvement of Kadarius Toney, more short passes to Kelce like they did last week when he had 14 catches for 98 yards? It’s a very interesting chess match on that side of the ball that we’re about to see.

As for the other side, I think Burrow and the Bengals shredded the Chiefs in Week 13 and should be ready for this one against by far the worst defense still playing this season. But what if, for a change, the Chiefs actually stepped up on defense to help out their not-100%-healthy QB? Maybe Chris Jones could even muster a playoff sack or two as he still has none in 13 career playoff games. Burrow is 21-1 in his last 30 games when he takes fewer than 5.0 sacks and 1-7 when he takes 5+ sacks. Put his ass down in this game. He’s not a playoff legend yet as he still has never led a fourth-quarter touchdown drive in six playoff games.

We’ll see what happens, but the Chiefs come in with the better QB, the Bengals have the better team. If Mahomes is still struggling on handoffs and throwing some funny balls because of the injury, then giving them the nod for best QB may even be off in this matchup Sunday. But no one knows until he plays on it.

So, am I going for the reverse jinx to screw the cocky-ass Bengals who are tempting the football gods with all the noise this week, the reverse-reverse jinx to shut up Kansas City’s most annoying fans on Twitter, or do I honestly think the Bengals are winning this game? All I can tell you is I want the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, just like I did the last four Championship Sundays, and batting 1-for-4 is fine if this was baseball.

Sorry if I have higher standards, but who saw the Bengals making back-to-back Super Bowls so quickly? Also, if they win on the road again without three starting offensive linemen, how impressive is that when Chiefs fans blow a gasket over the Eric Fisher injury two years ago? Coach better. Play better.

But you know what, I’m going to stick to my original research that started this nonsense and declare it would be too much of an oddity for Mahomes to have more home title game losses in just five years than any QB in history has in their whole careers. The Bengals are lucky but they are not the 2003-04 Patriots.

Final: Chiefs 28, Bengals 27

And you know what, I’m still probably taking the NFC to win the Super Bowl no matter which of these teams win tomorrow.

NFL Stat Oddity: 2022 Divisional Round

~ Scott ~ 3 Comments

For as incredible as the divisional round was last season with road teams going 3-1 and every game decided on the final play, the 2022 slate was one of the worst in history.

  • Zero lead changes in the second half.
  • Three wire-to-wire wins.
  • Three home favorites won by 7+ points.
  • One game-winning drive that was settled on the first snap of the fourth quarter in a tied game, leading to the only pathetic 4QC attempt of the weekend.
  • A 7-point win marred by a major quarterback injury.
  • Three of the losing teams failed to score more than 12 points, which has not happened in the divisional round since the 2002 season.

I would rank it as the third-worst divisional round since 1970 behind only 1992 and 2000.

In 1992, you had three wins by 21+ points, and the closest game was a forgettable one in San Francisco with the 49ers beating Washington 20-13. Washington (13) scored as many points as the other three losers that weekend combined that’s how bad it was.

2000’s highlight game was that horseshit outcome in Tennessee when the top-seeded Titans choked 24-10 to the Ravens, losing on a blocked field goal return touchdown and Eddie George tipping a pick-six to Ray Lewis.

In the end, 2022 is just copying the same final four as 2021, giving us Bengals-Chiefs in Arrowhead, and the 49ers on the road against the latest NFC flash in the pan who everyone will say can win for years to come when this might legitimately be their best and final shot at a ring.

Does it play out the same way as last year? We’ll see next week, but for now, let’s try to quickly put a bow on this dud of a weekend. I can remember staying up super late last year in finishing the recap of 42-36 and the other games, still riding a sense of awe from my favorite weekend of the NFL year.

But this was not much fun this year, and I guess scoring streaks don’t mean what they used to when the teams in question have a history of coming up short this time of year.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Cowboys at 49ers: Mr. Self Destruct on Repeat All Summer

One team did this:

The other did this:

Pretty obvious which team won, and which team lost again even if you didn’t see the game.

There are other plays I could point to, like two classic 2022 Dallas interceptions thrown by Dak Prescott, or how the defense failed to hang onto multiple Brock Purdy pick opportunities. Tight end Dalton Schultz also made some boneheaded plays at the end of the game as he is no George Kittle, that’s for sure.

But the Cowboys’ destructive ways finally caught up to them even if the 49ers certainly didn’t play their A game. Kicker Brett Maher had another extra point miss, but it was blocked this time. Still, it looked like he was going to miss it if it wasn’t blocked.

That second Prescott interception in the red zone just before halftime was a killer. Instead of Dallas scoring, the 49ers turned that into a field goal and 9-6 lead as both defenses did a lot of good things. The 49ers also caught a break when Tony Pollard suffered a game-ending injury in the first half right before the last pick.

The only points of the third quarter went to Dallas on a 25-yard field goal – we found a distance Maher can still hit from – after the 49ers fumbled a punt return, so that wasn’t really earned by the offense.

Before what became the game-winning drive, the Cowboys had a chance to go for a fourth-and-5 at the San Francisco 40. They took a delay of game penalty and punted. Very conservative decision by Mike McCarthy there that proved costly.

On the second play of the drive, Kittle made that ridiculously athletic catch from above for a 30-yard gain into Dallas territory. Kittle had both 49ers’ 30-yard plays in this game, but that was the big one. Purdy’s only other positive gain on the drive was an 8-yard gain on a little throw to Christian McCaffrey.

The drive could have stalled on a third-down sack, but the Cowboys were penalized for defensive holding, giving the 49ers a new set of downs. McCaffrey walked in for a 2-yard touchdown run on the first play of the fourth quarter to take a 16-9 lead.

The Cowboys ended up settling for a 43-yard field goal after a blown blocking assignment on first down blew up the drive with a 4-yard loss. Maher actually made the kick normally and it was 16-12.

Dan Quinn’s defense did a good job in the game against a team that was scoring well over 30 points per game with Purdy, but you can complain about these back-to-back scoring drives that were both long and impactful in the second half. The 49ers put together another one, taking 7:59 off the clock and adding a field goal, leaving Prescott with 2:59 left to try tying the game at 19 or taking the lead on a two-point conversion.

This was plenty of time, but similar to last year when the Cowboys had a stinker of a drive in a 23-17 game in the wild card round, they quickly folded here too, going three-and-out. Prescott was sacked and the Cowboys had to hurry the punt team to save the two-minute warning.

Remember last year’s craptacular ending with the infamous quarterback draw with no timeouts left? It took some bad game management by the 49ers to get Dallas that opportunity, and something similar would happen here as well. The 49ers came out throwing with 2:05 left, which was perfectly fine given the upcoming clock stoppage for the two-minute warning. But the short throw was carried so well by Kittle for 11 YAC that it was almost a meaningless first down as the clock stopped with Dallas still holding all three timeouts.

I’m not saying it would be easy for Kittle to give up on a play, but a gain of 9 yards would have really been the best thing possible there to burn clock. Two plays later, Elijah Mitchell did something much worse. He got to the outside and ran for a 13-yard gain to get a first down that could have burned most of the clock, but he ran out of bounds instead of sliding down once he got the first.

There would be no third first down gained on the drive. The 49ers punted and the Cowboys were left in the unenviable position of having to drive 94 yards in 45 seconds for a touchdown with no timeouts.

But at least it was a chance thanks to the Mitchell mistake. Prescott nearly pissed it away with a sack for a safety, but Arik Armstead seemed to pull up on the hit, which Prescott absorbed and threw the ball away from.

Schultz caught a couple short ones, though he didn’t get out of bounds properly on one, which led to the clock rolling. Then he casually didn’t drag his second foot down on another play with 6 seconds left, costing the Cowboys 15 yards and an outside shot at a Hail Mary from 61 yards out.

All you could really do was a lateral-filled play at this point, 76 yards away from the end zone. The Cowboys were lining up Ezekiel Elliott at center in a unique formation, so you at least expected something unique they clearly worked on. But after the 49ers took a timeout, the play was ran, Elliott was pancaked, and Dak threw a short pass to a receiver who was immediately tackled for an 8-yard gain. Didn’t even get a lateral off.

What the hell was the point of that?

Oddly enough, you can say the same about every overhyped Dallas Cowboys season since 1996, because once again they are eliminated short of the NFC Championship Game. We will now see a fifth rookie quarterback start a Conference Championship Game since the Cowboys were last in it. Purdy joins Mark Sanchez (2009 Jets) and Joe Flacco (2008 Ravens) as the only three rookies to win multiple playoff games in NFL history.

But Purdy is going to have to be better in Philadelphia next week than he was here against Dallas if he wants to become the first rookie quarterback to start a Super Bowl.

As for the Cowboys, I’m not on the fire McCarthy and trade Dak bandwagon, but I do think there is a serious limitation on how far you can expect this team to go this time of year with them leading the way. I just struggle to see the better alternatives in 2023, because last I checked, McCarthy’s one Super Bowl win is still a year fresher than Sean Payton’s.

This league is hard, and yet the 49ers are going to their sixth NFC title game in the last 12 years with two head coaches and four different starting quarterbacks.

Bengals at Bills: Buffalo’s Emotional Season Meets Flat Finale

I am not very keen on calling this a big upset. I thought the opening 4.5-point spread for the Bills was too high, and I thought the 5.5 and 6-point spreads for the weekend were even more ridiculous. I was consistent from Week 17 to this week in choosing Buffalo to win by a field goal (27-24) in a close game like how every Cincinnati playoff game is close the last two years.

But this was shockingly one sided, and not in any way that made any sense going into this matchup:

  • For all the talk about Buffalo’s turnovers this year, the game’s only turnover was a meaningless Josh Allen interception with 1:02 left to play and the Bills down 27-10.
  • The game’s only turnover on downs, often a hidden turnover in the stat sheet, was halfway through the fourth quarter, and again, Buffalo was already down 27-10.
  • The Bills had just eight offensive drives for the game, and two of them were with a 27-10 deficit in the fourth quarter.
  • The Bengals were down three starting offensive linemen coming in, yet it was the Bills who looked like the team facing that dilemma.
  • While each quarterback was sacked once, Joe Burrow was rarely pressured while Allen was frequently pressured.
  • In the regular season, Buffalo was No. 7 in rushing yards and No. 2 in yards per carry. Cincinnati was No. 29 in both categories.
  • But the Bengals rushed for 172 yards on 5.1 yards per carry in their second-biggest rushing game of the year, and the Bills had 63 yards on 3.3 yards per carry, their fewest rushing yards in a game since 32 yards in the 2020 AFC divisional round vs. Baltimore.
  • Buffalo averaged 28.4 points per game in the regular season, ranked No. 2 in the league, but the 10 points were the fewest scored since last year’s 14-10 loss vs. Patriots in extreme wind.
  • The Bengals scored a touchdown on the opening drive and led wire-to-wire in the snow, once considered to be a home-field advantage for the Bills.

While there was more than an inch of snow as the weather people incorrectly predicted this week, remember when the Bills had a home-field advantage in the elements? That seems to be gone with this offense. The defense also looked incredibly soft and unable to put together a pass rush to take advantage of Cincinnati’s line, which played far better than Buffalo’s.

The Bills are the first top-five scoring offense to be held to 10 points in a home playoff loss since the 2005 Giants lost 23-0 to the Panthers in the NFC wild card.

That was Eli Manning’s first playoff start under Tom Coughlin. The Bills are supposed to be an experienced playoff team, and they were the Super Bowl favorites for most of this year.

The 2002 Eagles also lost 27-10 at home to the 2002 Buccaneers, an all-time elite defense. That’s one of the closest examples to this game, but at least those teams had some history. This was the first Burrow vs. Allen matchup, and they are scheduled to meet next regular season in Cincinnati. If this is how the Bills are going to handle one of their main rivals in the AFC, then the long wait for a Super Bowl may have just gotten a little longer.

This was really bad for the Bills, who looked incapable of forcing the Bengals into a negative play on their first two drives as Cincy quickly led 14-0. In between, Allen was pressured on a third down, missed Stefon Diggs on a deep ball, and the offense went three-and-out.

Long drives defined the second quarter with the Bills finally getting on the board with an Allen touchdown run, but the Bengals nearly matched it on their own lengthy drive. A Ja’Marr Chase touchdown was overturned after replay showed him losing control of the ball out of bounds. Had he caught that in the middle of the field, it would have stood as a completion. But we still have difficult rules in place for touchdowns, and I’m not sure how I feel about that philosophically. Should touchdowns be held to a higher standard, or should the final yard be no different from the rest? Either way, I think they got the call right this time, and that cost the Bengals an extra 4 points.

But the Bills could not capitalize on that break. Allen threw three straight incompletions from the Cincinnati 41 and the Bills punted on their final drive of the half. The Bills started the third quarter with another long drive that consumed half the quarter, but they again stalled in the red zone and had to settle for a field goal and 17-10 lead.

That sequence really did the Bills in. They had to do better than 3 points on two drives that took up so much time. There was no sense of what the game plan was for the Bills outside of hoping Allen would throw some lasers and run through some people. He led the team in rushing with 26 yards as the two backs who were so good late in the year had 11 carries for 37 yards. Seven receivers had multiple catches, but Stefon Diggs (4-of-10 for 35 yards) and Gabe Davis (2-of-4 for 34 yards) were quiet.

Meanwhile, the Bengals converted a huge third-and-10 after the Bills lost all sight of tight end Hayden Hurst. That led to another touchdown, a 1-yard run by Joe Mixon to make it 24-10.

The Bills quickly went three-and-out and punted on a fourth-and-2 from their own 20. They’d never see the ball again without facing a three-score deficit.

Incredibly, this was the deficit for Buffalo at the start of its eight drives:

  • -7 (three-and-out)
  • -14 (three-and-out)
  • -14 (touchdown)
  • -10 (punt)
  • -10 (field goal)
  • -14 (three-and-out)
  • -17 (turnover on downs)
  • -17 (interception)

The Bills trailed by double digits on their final seven drives. In the first 17 games this season, the Bills had five drives where they trailed by double digits, and they were all in the Baltimore game where they came back from 20-3 down to win.

There would be no comeback this time. Only a massive letdown, the biggest one yet for Buffalo in this era. The Bengals drove for a field goal early in the fourth quarter to take a 27-10 lead. The Bills had a chance to kick a late field goal in a three-score game, but what good would that really do with half a quarter left against a team you cannot stop? Maybe you can get away with kicking there against the Texans, but it made sense to go for it. Allen did not find anyone open, and his desperation pass fell incomplete.

Game all but over there. The Bengals burned five more minutes and Allen added the irrelevant pick after the Bills were thoroughly dominated without any turnovers.

It was such a flat ending to one emotional rollercoaster of a season. You have to admit, the America’s Game for this team would have been quite the watch if they won it all.

  • Opening night destruction of the defending champion Rams
  • Melting down in Miami before coming back from 20-3 to beat the Ravens
  • Allen’s monster passing day vs. Steelers in Kenny Pickett’s first start, a 38-3 rout
  • The game-winning drive in Week 6’s showdown in Kansas City
  • Allen’s elbow injury at the end of the Jets game
  • The insane fumble and everything else that happened in the Minnesota overtime loss
  • The Cleveland game getting moved to Detroit after six feet of snow hit Buffalo
  • Von Miller’s torn ACL on Thanksgiving and Allen’s frozen rope to Diggs for the game-winning drive
  • The game-winning drive in the snow against Miami on a Saturday night
  • The Damar Hamlin cardiac arrest that stunned the sports world in Cincinnati, the first game cancelled for non-labor reasons since 1935
  • Nyheim Hines returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown in the next game against New England; one of two returns for him that day in eliminating the Patriots
  • A wild 34-31 win over the Dolphins in the wild card

With the break of getting this game in Buffalo instead of a neutral field, and the ankle injury to Patrick Mahomes on Saturday, this just seemed like a team of destiny this year with one hell of a championship story to tell.

Now, tale as old as time, it’s just a 57th-straight Buffalo season that will end without winning the Super Bowl. In some ways, this ending is much worse than the 13 seconds in Kansas City last year. At least that team had some fight. This team looked like a soft dome team not ready for the weather, which is an insane thing to say about a Buffalo team, but that’s where they are now.

I prefaced this season talking about The Five-Year Rule for both the Bills and Ravens. No team has ever won its first championship by starting the same quarterback for the same head coach for more than five seasons.

In picking Buffalo to win the Super Bowl, I had them beating Baltimore and Lamar Jackson in the AFC Championship Game next week. Now, the Bengals eliminated both and it’ll either be another Kansas City or Cincinnati Super Bowl.

The five-year window has closed on the pairings of Sean McDermott/Allen and John Harbaugh/Jackson. It’s not looking good for their futures together. Getting into battles with Mahomes and the Chiefs is one thing, but now that you’ve let Cincinnati officially move past you in the AFC too, it may take significant changes for these teams to get over the hump.

But with no one in the AFC seemingly able to stop this Cincinnati team, their confidence is at an all-time high. Even if you’re a trash corner like Eli Apple, it is hard not to be this cocky after a 27-10 win in Buffalo.

Who dey think gonna beat them Bengals? Might have to be an NFC team with a great pass rush again. At the very least, I’m happy to see there will not be a neutral-field conference championship game. I think that would be a terrible move for the league to try in the future.

Jaguars at Chiefs: Quick, Break the Henne Emergency Glass

We’ll see if Patrick Mahomes can make it 3-for-3 in appearing in the Super Bowl after narrowly avoiding a season-ending injury. He did it in 2019 when he dislocated his kneecap in Denver and only missed two full games. He did it in 2020 when he tweaked a nerve during the third quarter of the divisional round against Cleveland, leaving the game as Chad Henne was able to come off the bench and direct a 22-17 win before Mahomes returned for the AFC Championship Game a week later.

But this is not a good time for Mahomes to suffer a high-ankle sprain with the Bengals coming to town next week. We’ve already seen the Chiefs go 0-3 with a healthy Mahomes against that team. Now his athleticism will no doubt be compromised, and that could be a big problem as this game on Saturday showed.

It’s a shame too because Mahomes came out firing with his A+ game against Jacksonville. That opening 83-yard touchdown drive was perfection as the Jacksonville defense had the right approach many times, but he continued to find different throwing angles and showed off the full extent of his abilities.

After Jacksonville matched the touchdown set up by a long kick return for a short field, it looked like we might get a legit shootout. But on the second Kansas City possession, the ankle injury happened to Mahomes:

Clearly hobbled, Mahomes stayed in the game, but I thought it was negligent to put him back in the game a la Robert Griffin II a decade ago. Then to call a stretch run play on the first snap since the injury? Even dumber. Mahomes completed his first two passes with the injury, but they were both short, and his last throw was an ugly one, leading to a field goal.

Thankfully, the team did take him out and he went to the locker room for an x-ray and treatment. It was a tough spot for Chad Henne to enter the game at his own 2-yard line, but he is a veteran who has been in the offense for years. He may not have did anything individually spectacular on the drive, but he did exactly what you could ask of a veteran backup: make smart plays and protect the ball. Henne almost had a pick on an early throw, but it was clearly tipped at the line and you could see he had the right decision. Would have been a bad luck pick, but the drive continued, and Isiah Pacheco helped out with a 39-yard run to eat up nearly half the field.

But Henne had a 4-of-7 success rate on the drive, converted a pair of third downs, and he finished it off with a 1-yard touchdown pass to Travis Kelce, who looked unstoppable in Saturday’s role of eating up the Jaguars on option routes and just sitting in the open area underneath. He’d finished with 14 catches for 98 yards and two touchdowns.

Imagine Henne leading a 98-yard touchdown drive in a playoff game before Mahomes. Besides taking a knee to take the game to half with the Chiefs up 17-10, that one 98-yard touchdown drive was all Henne had to do in this game, but what a great job from the backup quarterback.

Mahomes returned for the second half after what had to be one hell of a drug cocktail. I did not think we’d see him again with that shot of him on the sideline cheering Henne’s drive on, and with the Chiefs leading. But with the Jaguars only down a score and some likely begging to play from the league’s MVP, Mahomes was back in there.

That first drive did not look good, and the second would fail too after a third-and-1 run came up short with the direct snap to Noah Gray. But the Jaguars were failing to threaten on offense with far too many screens and passes behind the line of scrimmage from Trevor Lawrence.

Mahomes hit Gray for a 27-yard gain, his only 20-yard completion of the game. That set up a field goal and 20-10 lead going into the fourth, but the Jaguars finally put together a drive again and scored a touchdown to make it 20-17 with 11:49 left.

Could the Jags really come back from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter of back-to-back playoff games? But Mahomes would do his best work since the opening drive and complete four passes for 48 yards, including a clutch 6-yard touchdown to Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He’s the best quarterback at turning a one-score lead into a two-score lead in the fourth quarter, and that drive just grows the legend.

But could the defense close out the last seven minutes? Lawrence finally started using his legs and had a great 12-yard run on a third-and-10 to set up first-and-goal in a hurry. But while Jamal Agnew had some great returns to help his team out, he cost them with a big fumble with 5:29 left. Just lost the ball at the 3-yard line.

But the Chiefs did go three-and-out after the second run failure on third-and-1 of the game. Figures, Mahomes puts up 20 points on eight drives with one leg on the last seven, and it’s still two third-and-1 run stops that did the most damage to this offense.

However, any hope for Jacksonville was quickly lost after Lawrence panicked under pressure and threw up an interception to rookie Jaylen Watson, the seventh-round pick who shined in Week 2 with the huge pick-six against the Chargers.

The Chiefs burned the clock to 1:04 left, then Jacksonville could only get a field goal before failing on an onside kick to end it at 27-20. The Jaguars (+9.5) still covered, moving head coach Doug Pederson to 7-0 ATS and 5-2 SU as a playoff underdog, which are fantastic records. But even with the Mahomes injury, the Jaguars were unable to capitalize on offense early, and the two big turnovers late did them in.

I would be careful about penciling in the Jaguars for many more of these games going forward. Look what was once said about Andrew Luck and the Colts or Deshaun Watson and the Texans. Those franchise basically imploded after losing to the Chiefs in the divisional round in 2018 and 2019. But it was a successful season for the Jaguars, and they look to be moving in the right direction.

But frankly, playing AFC South teams like this in the second round is how the Chiefs have become just the third team after the 1973-77 Raiders and 2011-18 Patriots to play in at least five straight Conference Championship Games.

Even Brady and the Patriots weren’t doing this in the 2000s AFC when the conference was deeper. They started doing it in 2011 when they drew some of the weakest teams to ever advance in the tournament such as the 2011 Broncos (Tebow), 2013 Colts (who came back from 38-10 vs. Reid’s Chiefs), 2016 Texans (beat Connor Cook), and 2017 Titans (who came back from 21-3 vs. Reid’s Chiefs). Throw in Reid and Pederson losing in New England with the 2015 Chiefs, and you can say the Chiefs had a lot to do with New England’s streak still being the record.

So, here we go again with the Chiefs hosting the AFC Championship Game for the fifth year in a row. Not looking forward to Mahomes’ ankle talk all week, but it is the huge story in the AFC.

But Saturday’s win is a data point for “he could beat that team with one leg tied behind his back.”

Giants at Eagles: Giant Ass Kicking

It has been some time since we’ve seen this kind of early knockout and ass kicking in the playoffs. There was no letdown on Philadelphia’s part after the bye week. The Eagles led 28-0 at halftime and won 38-7 to complete the three-game sweep of the rival Giants, who were just no match for the top seed this year.

The 2019 Packers were down 27-0 at halftime against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game before losing 37-20, so at least they had a little fight after the break. The last time a team was getting shutout at half by 28-plus points in a playoff game was when the 2015 Panthers went up 31-0 on the Seahawks in the divisional round. Seattle got it to 31-24 late but could not recover an onside kick.

But this is just the sixth time in playoff history where a team was shutout by 28-plus points at halftime.

Never good to be in the company of the 73-0 game for the loser. The Giants were just never in this one. They gave up a 40-yard bomb on the second play of the game, Dallas Goedert made an incredible one-handed catch to get a 16-yard touchdown, and once Daniel Jones took a bad sack on a fourth-and-8 in response, it was already a dangerous time for the Giants.

The Eagles took the short field for another 52-yard touchdown drive, and then Jones made his worst throw of the night for a pick by James Bradberry. Boston Scott later pounded in his 11th touchdown against the Giants, and the Giant Killer is now 9-for-9 at scoring touchdowns in games against the Giants. Did he grow up a Patriots fan or something? He was born in Louisiana and went to school there. I’m not sure why he shits all over the Giants every time, but he did it again in the playoffs to secure his legacy against them.

Throw in the obligatory Hurts touchdown run before halftime and it was 28-0. Between the early Scott score and Hurts easily running that one in, the Eagles looked like they were toying with the Giants.

Things did not go much better in the second half. One 39-yard run by Saquon Barkley helped the Giants to their only touchdown drive in the game to make it 28-7. But the moment worthy of criticism came on their next possession, which extended into the fourth quarter.

Facing a fourth-and-6 at their own 42, the Giants punted with 13:12 left. You’re down three touchdowns, you’re almost certainly going to lose barring a miracle. Why are you punting, Brian Daboll? If you go for it, you might convert and keep this improbable rally going. If you don’t get it, there’s still some value here in that the drive should not consume much time with the Eagles on the edges of field-goal range. You could even push them back a little and force a punt.

But the Giants punted, and the Eagles burned almost eight minutes on a run-heavy drive before kicking a field goal to make it 31-7 with 5:16 left. So much good punting did there. But the Giants had a terrible run defense this year, and it was exposed in this game and especially on that drive when Kenneth Gainwell ripped off 12 yards with a great effort on a third-and-12.

But even if they didn’t add the three points on that drive, it took up way too much time. On their next drive, Jones started getting into sack trouble against the defense that had 70 sacks this year. Still, he made a fourth-and-16 conversion look so casual with a 17-yard completion, his longest completion of the game to a non-running back. Gee, maybe that fourth-and-6 earlier would have been worth the try?

The drive eventually stalled and was turned over on downs. The Eagles padded the score with Gainwell taking off for a 35-yard touchdown run on a third-and-9 that he didn’t need with 1:51 left. The Eagles finished with 268 rushing yards and Hurts only needed to throw for 154 in his first playoff win. Jones then completed a few hospital balls to his receivers, because I guess 38-7 in the last two minutes is the right time to start getting aggressive as a passer. Then it was finally over.

I think the frustrating thing about the Giants is that they never seemed to have any plan for the game. Maybe it was blown up by the quick 14-0 hole, and maybe they were shell shocked by the fourth-down sack and the interception. But I have no idea if they wanted to establish Saquon, make use of Jones’ legs, try to use the slot receivers to stay away from the outside corners, or just chuck it deep and hope for pass interference.

They did none of those things. Barkley had 8 carries for 22 yards when you set aside his 39-yard burst in a 28-0 hole. Jones lost more yards on five sacks (26) than he had on six runs (24 yards). Richie James had 10 targets compared to 17 for the rest of the team, and he was the only receiver with more than 21 receiving yards. The game only had six penalties for 30 yards between the two teams, and it was free of controversy because the Giants were knocked out almost immediately.

It is unusual to see a Giants playoff run that doesn’t end one-or-done or in the Super Bowl like 12 of their last 14 trips have.

This game had the biggest talent disparity this weekend and the results backed that up. Now we’ll see if the Eagles can win against a legitimate elite team for the first time in the Hurts era.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 15

~ Scott ~ 8 Comments

When your weekend starts with the biggest comeback in NFL history, you know things are going to be wilder than usual. The NFL’s Week 15 can lay claim to being the wildest week of the 2022 season with a record 33-point comeback, two more 17-point comebacks, three overtime games won on touchdowns, two non-offensive game-winning touchdowns, a snowy fourth quarter classic in Buffalo, and we still have to see what Baker Mayfield can do in Green Bay on Monday night.

After a lack of drama and lead changes in Week 14, the week I called the worst of the year, every single game but one was within one score at some point in the fourth quarter. It took the greatest kicker of all time having a 50-yard field goal blocked in his face to not have it happen in 100% of the games this week.

That does not mean we had 15 games with a comeback opportunity. We had 11 for the first time since Week 5 now that the bye weeks are over. But what a week it was with plenty to recap.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Colts at Vikings: The Biggest Comeback/Collapse in NFL History

For a special recap of this historic game, check out my feature, The 2022 Vikings Are Young, Dumb, and Full of Comebacks

Giants at Commanders: Fumbles and Bad Refs

We finally had a winner in Giants-Commanders this year despite how close this was to going to overtime with the score 20-20 again. But Taylor Heinicke and Washington had a brutal night at the ends of each field. The Giants got back on track with a win thanks to the familiar formula of pressure defense and grinding out the fourth quarter.

The Commanders could have taken control early like they did two weeks ago when these teams met, but a third-down sack of Heinicke knocked them out of field goal range on the opening drive, then rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux had perhaps his play of the season with a strip-sack returned for a touchdown in the second quarter.

Washington trailed 17-9 to start the fourth quarter but struggled to hold onto the ball and put it in the end zone. Antonio Gibson narrowly avoided another lost fumble on a drive that ended with a 51-yard field goal two plays later to make it 17-12. Just like two weeks ago, the Giants couldn’t put things away on offense despite driving into Washington territory.

But after Heinicke hit a deep ball to Jahan Dotson for 61 yards, that drive would also stall after he was strip-sacked for the second time on third-and-goal with 6:06 left. The Giants added another 50-yard field goal to make it 20-12, but we were in almost the exact same situation as two weeks ago with Heinicke having the ball with a chance to tie. The clock was less favorable, and they would need a two this time, but it was very close to the same thing.

The Giants also looked like they were going to blow it again on a night that showed the Commanders have a really nice trio of wide receivers in Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and rookie Dotson. But do you know who apparently are not fans of this receiving trio? The refs. After a Heinicke scramble set up third-and-goal from the 1, Brian Robinson’s touchdown plunge was nullified by an illegal formation penalty on McLaurin.

This is the kind of thing you could struggle to notice at the snap, and according to former official Terry McAuley via NBC broadcast, this was a weak call that did not need to be made. McLaurin says the ref told him he was lined up fine, so make of that what you will.

But the big stink came on fourth-and-6. Heinicke threw a pass out of desperation to Samuel in the end zone, and corner Darnay Holmes was there early, interfered with Samuel, but no flag was thrown for defensive pass interference. Game over, Giants win.

Now in that video, Holmes is perfectly fine at the beginning. Samuel even uses his right hand to push Holmes away at the 7-second mark. But after that push creates some separation, you can see Holmes panic and start to ride Samuel’s back at 9-10 seconds. By 12 seconds, he decides to grab onto the receiver’s chest with both hands and leap on his back again to help knock the ball away.

What more do you need for DPI? Oh yeah, I guess it would help if Samuel was Mike Evans and Heinicke was Tom Brady, because we know that is getting flagged 100% of the time if they were involved. It would also have gone the way of Davante Adams no matter if Aaron Rodgers or Derek Carr threw him the ball, and the same is true for Mahomes and Kelce, or any other star players you want to throw into the mix.

Officials call the game differently at the very end of the game even though a foul is a foul is a foul. Call it preferential treatment or giving the benefit of the doubt, but some players tend to get calls others wouldn’t from refs too. That’s just an unfortunate part of the game.

What can be done to change that? I’m not sure. I just know it is a very bad look for the league when NBC’s rules expert (McAuley), a former official himself, can quickly look at these plays and call the illegal formation unnecessary and the missed DPI blatant.

I am not saying we need a game where every play in the final 2:00 is highly scrutinized and reviewed for every possible little penalty. But maybe some kind of “eye in the sky” in New York with all the best angles and replays can quickly be the third-party ruler in these cases and come up with the best calls for game-deciding plays like this one.

But they know we’re still going to watch the next game no matter how bad the last call (or no call) was.

Patriots at Raiders: Belichick Is Going to Bury Jakobi Meyers with Joe Pesci in the Desert

Bill Belichick is now 11-12 against his former New England assistants, including an 0-2 record against Josh McDaniels. But in none of those games did his team ever look as stupid and undisciplined as they did in Vegas.

Forget that play. We’ll get to that. Before the final minute, you had the Patriots completely botch a goal-to-go sequence, blow a coverage on a second-and-20 resulting in a Darren Waller touchdown, have a punt blocked, and Mac Jones struggled to throw for 100 yards.

But the nice thing was they were playing the 2022 Raiders. Despite leading 17-3, you know this team forgets there are two halves to each game. Once again, the Raiders blew a two-touchdown lead after some big plays by the Patriots quickly put together a go-ahead touchdown drive with 3:43 left. New England went from trailing 17-3 to leading 24-17.

Derek Carr adopted the Brady approach of “suck fast and hope for DPI” after throwing three incomplete passes, the last being a deep ball on third down that almost connected with Mack Hollins. But since the drive was so bad and only consumed 27 seconds (punt included), Carr was going to get another shot, because you knew the Patriots would be conservative with Jones and the lead.

In fact, Carr had 2:11 left to tie it. The game could have been over with a four-and-out, but the New England defense lost Hollins on the sideline for a 12-yard gain to keep the game alive. On a play that should quiet the Raiders fans who think the refs are always out to get them, the Raiders were ruled to have scored a touchdown when Keelan Cole hauled one in the back of the end zone from 30 yards out with 32 seconds left.

There was a video of what looked like his one foot may have been on the white and out of bounds. But this was one of those plays where it stood just because you had to stay with the call on the field, which was a touchdown. Had they ruled it incomplete on the field, it likely would have stayed incomplete and brought up third down.

Tough one for Patriots fans, but they have a long way to go to make up for all the crap that went their way the last two decades. The game was only tied and likely headed for overtime, except the Patriots did one of the dumbest things in NFL history:

We have seen fumbles returned for touchdowns on the final play of the game before. It happened when Washington upset the Eagles this year. It happened to the Raiders in overtime in Arizona when Hunter Renfrow coughed up the ball.

But those were different situations. You don’t see a team try to lateral in a tied game with overtime in their back pocket, because that would be stupid for the exact reason we saw. I just said the other day that Chandler Jones was having the worst season of his career, but hey, at least he has a highlight play for the rest of his life to enjoy.

I don’t actually mind the initial lateral from Rhamondre Stevenson. It was risky and it wasn’t planned that way, but he made a decent play. But if you are Meyers, who says he knew it was tied and not meant to be a lateral, then how in the world do you make that lateral that far back into the field of play because you thought Mac Jones was open?

Him?

If he can’t throw a Hail Mary from his 45, he wasn’t going to do anything here. Just an incredibly bad decision by Meyers and maybe even a worse throw as that ball was right to Chandler Jones and nowhere close to Mac Jones. If Kendrick Bourne or Nelson Agholor made the play Meyers did, they probably get cut Monday.

With games coming up against the Bengals, Dolphins, and Bills, the Patriots (7-7) are likely toast for the playoffs. When you look at the roster, it makes sense. But you never expect the Patriots to do something so incredibly stupid like they did on Sunday.

That’s what you expect the Raiders to do.

Dolphins at Bills: Buffalo Powder Is Different Than Miami Powder

Unlike Sunday night, this was just a great, dramatic game between two quality division rivals in Buffalo on Saturday night. I could watch these teams play a best-of-seven if things are going to be as good and interesting as the first two games this year.

I had been waiting since Week 3 to see this rematch, because I thought the Bills shot themselves in the foot that game and blew it way more than Miami found a way to win it. I was ultimately wrong about the Bills blowing them out here in the cold, but it was a great game with neither team able to lead by more than one possession.

The much-hyped snow did not arrive until the fourth quarter, but when it did, that made every snap an adventure down the stretch. But the game was filled with intrigue as a better version of Tua Tagovailoa showed up than the last two weeks. But the biggest surprise was Raheem Mostert (136 yards) giving the Dolphins a dominant run attack they haven’t had this year.

That’s what made the fourth quarter so questionable when the Dolphins took to the air on six of their final seven plays after the snow started. How do you not feed Mostert on a third-and-1? Instead, Tua threw a quick pass that lost 2 yards and the Dolphins settled for a 47-yard field goal.

Allen made up for his strip-sack on the previous drive with an excellent 44-yard run and a great touchdown throw to Dawson Knox for a 5-yard score. Allen dove for the end zone on the game-tying two-point conversion, and despite NFL Network cutting to a commercial break long enough for analyst Mark Sanchez to scarf down two hot dogs, the play was good and not a fumble as it appeared.

Miami’s pass-happy drive in a tied game with the snow coming down just did not make sense to me. The Bills had the ball back with 5:56 left in a 29-29 game. Allen led a drive as good as any in his career with pinpoint accuracy and sharp decision making. When any little slip or bad bounce of the ball in the increasingly slick conditions could end the game, this was impressive stuff in a very important game. I would say he’s put himself back in the MVP race if the losses to the Jets and Vikings weren’t so damaging.

Devin Singletary pulled up short of a go-ahead touchdown with 34 seconds left, which was probably the smartest thing to do in that spot. The field was cleaned off by Buffalo players well enough to give kicker Tyler Bass a very fair shot at a 25-yard field goal. He nailed it and the Bills won 32-29 and should be the AFC East champs when it’s all said and done.

I still think Miami is a playoff team this year, but with its second three-game losing streak of the year, you can see how the inexperience with success is hurting Mike McDaniel and Tua.

After zero game-winning drives in the 2021 season, the Bills are already up to four engineered by Allen this year (at Ravens, at Chiefs, at Lions, and vs. Dolphins). When you take away someone like Von Miller, on top of a loss like safety Micah Hyde, it is going to be more of a grind for this team. There is no easy path to the Super Bowl in this AFC.

More and more, the AFC is looking like a three-team race that will be a repeat of last year: two coin-flip games between the trio of Buffalo, Kansas City, and Cincinnati. Fortunately, we get to see the Bills and Bengals in prime time in Week 17, the first matchup between Allen and Joe Burrow in their NFL careers.

Eagles at Bears: Just Some Hiccups

How did Jalen Hurts fare in his first game as the odds-on MVP favorite this year? He probably played his worst game of the season with two early picks, but he still finished with 376 total yards (315 passing) and scored three rushing touchdowns in a 25-20 win.

The Bears did their usual thing: plenty of rushing yards, some good highlights from Justin Fields, but not good on third down, not enough passing, and no fourth-quarter comeback despite the Eagles letting them hang around in a 17-13 game after a doinked field goal attempt.

A.J. Brown got open for a 68-yard catch that set up Hurts’ third touchdown to basically wrap it up at 25-13 with 4:20 left. The Eagles had some blown coverage on a 35-yard touchdown to Byron Pringle with 2:42 left, but Philadelphia was able to convert one more third down to Brown to move the chains and end the game with a 25-20 win to move to 13-1.

A better team could have made the Eagles pay in that first half, but Fields had some really bad plays on third-and-1 early, and too many sacks (six for 61 yards) on the day.

The Eagles will not go into their big game with Dallas next week at their sharpest like the last three weeks, but after the way Dallas has played against Houston and Jacksonville, does it matter? Even a Dallas win is unlikely to cost the Eagles the No. 1 seed. Still, I am surprised to see the Cowboys are a 1.5-point home favorite next Saturday.

Cowboys at Jaguars: The Return of McCarthyism

If Houston was supposed to be the wake-up call for this Dallas team to get its shit together before the showdown with the Eagles, then the message was initially received. Then in the third quarter, (Mike) McCarthyism crept in and this team fell apart, blowing a 27-10 lead and losing 40-34 in overtime.

I do not know if the Jaguars are legitimately turning it around after a 2-6 start, or if they’re just the lucky beneficiaries of playing two of the worst teams ever to hold leads (Raiders and Ravens), a Tennessee team during its worst losing streak in years, and now this Dallas team that should have lost to Houston a week ago.

I do know turnovers have played a crucial part in Jacksonville’s recent wins against Baltimore, Tennessee, and now Dallas. A Dak Prescott interception late in the third quarter set the Jaguars up 39 yards away from another touchdown to quickly make this very interesting after it was 27-10 not even three minutes before that.

Like last week against Houston, Prescott would atone for his mistake with a 75-yard touchdown drive, finding Noah Brown for another 13-yard score to take a 34-31 lead. The great Dallas defense we keep hearing about? It mostly did its job the rest of the way. Trevor Lawrence put a nasty spin move on the defense, but he got a bit greedy on the play and fumbled in Dallas territory with 1:28 left.

It wasn’t a dagger with the Jaguars having all three timeouts left, but the Cowboys botched this drive. Two runs for net 0 yards by each back, then Dak tried to throw a deep one to Brown that fell incomplete. The Cowboys burned 27 seconds and even saved the Jaguars a timeout, which they desperately needed.

With CeeDee Lamb catching all seven targets on the day – he had five of the offense’s seven longest gains – I think you have to be aggressive and work an early-down pass in there, maybe off play-action. If the end result is just going to be giving them the ball back anyway with time to do something, then I am giving my best players a chance to end things on offense.

Lawrence had 1:01 to get a field goal and he needed just about every second of it. Zay Jones was the big target on the day with three touchdowns, and his 19-yard catch to the Dallas 30 was a game saver. The game is over there if the Jaguars didn’t have that last timeout. Silly Cowboys.

The Jaguars were good from 48 yards out on the field goal to send it to overtime. The Dallas defense again did a great job to force a three-and-out. But after a few Tony Pollard runs, Dak’s first dropback in overtime was a disaster with a tipped ball going to Rayshawn Jenkins for a 52-yard game-winning pick-six.

You just can’t trust these teams this year. It would be such a McCarthy thing to restore false hope and beat the Eagles next week. But guess what? The Eagles are unlikely to be caught for the No. 1 seed, let alone the division at this point.

We would really be looking at the NFC’s Game of the Year next week in Dallas if this team didn’t blow a 14-point fourth-quarter lead in Green Bay and a 17-point third-quarter lead in Jacksonville.

13-1 at 12-2 on Christmas Eve? Hell yeah, that would have been a spectacle. But if you’re talking about the NFC Game of the Year this season, the answer has never been more obvious what that should be.

It’s the 49ers at Eagles in the NFC Championship Game. It sure isn’t a game involving this Dallas team.

Bengals at Buccaneers: Joe Burrow Pulls the Remaining Horseshoe Out of Tom Brady’s Ass

If I told you a team in this game blew a 17-0 lead by doing a stupid fake punt, turning the ball over four times in a row, which set up three touchdowns inside the opponent’s 40-yard line, then wasted a huge fourth-down sack with a tacky 5-yard penalty, you’d bet everything you owned on the team who blew it being Cincinnati, right?

Well, this was some role reversal. This game went from nauseating (blame Tony Romo’s hard-on for Tom Brady) to hilarious in record time. The Bengals trailed 17-0 late in the first half and got into the locker room with 83 yards, the worst first half for any Joe Burrow start in his career. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers actually looked like a competent, balanced team like they were in 2020-21.

But before I could even start joking that Brady at age 45 plays tighter defense on Burrow’s receivers than Mahomes or Allen could ever dream of, this one took a sharp turn in the third quarter. The Buccaneers tried a fake punt from their own 26, and the direct snap to Gio Bernard seemed to catch him by surprise, and the play failed. The Bengals only got a field goal out of it, but better than nothing.

Then Brady threw a pick as he tried to make one of those very low throws to a diving receiver, but he got the defender instead. Still, his defense looked like it was going to force a four-and-out after Burrow took a 23-yard sack on fourth-and-3, or one of the worst plays you’ll ever see a quarterback make. However, he was bailed out by a defensive holding penalty on Lavonte David.

If Kevin O’Connell stole part of Brady’s lucky horseshoe back in January with the Rams, then Burrow must have snuck in there at halftime to extract the other piece lodged up Brady’s ass. This turnaround was absurd.

The Bengals turned that first turnover into a touchdown. Three plays later, Brady was strip-sacked and the Bengals were 13 yards away from the lead, which they took quickly at 20-17.

How about three in a row? Brady was just trying to hand off on a running play, and I’ve never seen the ball just pop right out of a quarterback’s hand when he was about to do so. The ball never got to the back and that goes down as another turnover for Brady.

The Bengals turned that into a touchdown too on a drive from 39 yards out with Ja’Marr Chase getting in on the action. Burrow even got away with a dropped interception or two this half. Everything was clicking for our young LOAT.

But Brady could come back, right? Cue the DPI throw to Mike Evans, and this was still a ballgame at 27-17. But nope. Under pressure, Brady’s pass fluttered from the contact and the Bengals came up with a diving interception and great defensive effort for the fourth straight turnover. That one only led to a quick three-and-out, but it changed field position, and Tampa responded with a three-and-out back. Perhaps a curious decision to punt on fourth-and-1 from your own 11 with 9:26 left after the game this team was having.

This time, Burrow put together a more legitimate drive on a longer field (62 yards) and he put away the Bucs with his fourth touchdown pass to a fourth different receiver. He even drew the Bucs offsides on a fourth down during the drive.

Brady added a 75-yard touchdown drive in garbage time to get the Bucs to 23 points for just the second time in 2022, but the Bengals recovered the onside kick to end it at 34-23.

I should be enjoying this Tampa Bay season a lot more than I am, and I know I would had the Rams and Saints not blown those two games against them. This team should be 4-10 right now, last place in the worst division. But ever since Week 1, I felt it was inevitable they were going to win the division and get rewarded with a home playoff game. Even as they continue to lose, I still think the odds of them beating Dallas in the wild card round in Tampa are incredibly high.

But this was still stunning because they went from looking the most competent they have all season to just a pure disaster all around.

Are the Bucs the first team in NFL history to give up at least a 34-0 scoring run in back-to-back weeks? They were down 35-0 to the 49ers last week. The quick answer is no. The 1961 Raiders were shut out 55-0 and 44-0 to start their season 0-2 if you can believe that. The 1978 Colts also did really bad with 38-0 and 42-0 losses to begin their season.

But for Brady, eight days ago he had only experienced a team scoring more than 31 straight points on him once (2020 Saints led 38-0 and won 38-3). Now it’s happened the last two games.

I just hope this doesn’t somehow end up as the Super Bowl matchup, because there is no way the Bengals are repeating this.

Chiefs at Texans: Just Needed the Rosencopter

The comparison of Peyton Manning to Patrick Mahomes wouldn’t be complete without a hard-fought win in Houston against the Texans when you least expect it. But the Chiefs are now 4-9-1 ATS, second-worst record in the league, after failing to cover a 14.5-point spread that was, frankly, ridiculous for a road team. Not to mention what happened with these teams a week ago.

This would have been a brutal loss for the Chiefs as they had nearly 300 more yards (502-219) than the Texans. But once again it was the turnovers that kept it close, and it was a turnover that made sure the Chiefs would still win.

This week it was not one but two obligatory fumbles by the Chiefs, including one from Isiah Pacheco and one from JuJu Smith-Schuster. JuJu’s led to the Texans taking a 21-16 lead into the fourth quarter.

But Patrick Mahomes used his legs again on a 5-yard scramble for a touchdown run. He completed the two-point conversion pass and the Chiefs led 24-21. But like I said in Week 11 after the Chargers game, we got to see what is becoming the signature Mahomes comeback. He leads them from behind with a go-ahead touchdown, the defense gives it up, then he still gets the win with a touchdown anyway.

But this one had no business going to overtime like that. After the Texans used a long drive to kick a game-tying field goal, Mahomes had the Chiefs right back in scoring range thanks to a 14-yard scramble on another third down. But instead of trying to get a little closer for a kicker who had missed another extra point, Andy Reid seemed content with staying conservative and settling for a long field goal. A designed run by Mahomes for 2 yards and a RB screen that lost a yard prove that.

Butker has been solid from long range, but from 51 yards out with 12 seconds left, he was wide right and the Chiefs were going to overtime. The Chiefs won another coin toss, but Mahomes made one of his few mistakes in the game by taking a sack on third down that knocked the offense out of field goal range.

But Davis Mills immediately returned the favor on a scramble when Frank Clark knocked the ball out and the Chiefs recovered. All that was missing was Mills spinning through the air a la the Rosencopter.

Unable to trust Butker, the Chiefs couldn’t just take a knee from the 26. With Pacheco fumbling earlier, the Chiefs turned to Jerick McKinnon, who has been money for them as of late. He immediately ripped off a 26-yard touchdown run against a run defense I crap on every single week in previews, prop picks, and recaps. That was the right call for sure, and while Mahomes gets a cheap game-winning TD drive, he should have had the game won on a field goal in regulation. Mahomes had the highest QBR (92.3) in Week 15.

Still, it turns out to be the fifth time that Mahomes has led a fourth-quarter comeback win with two go-ahead touchdown drives. That’s already more than the total Aaron Rodgers (two), Peyton Manning (one), and Tom Brady (one) have in their careers combined.

Mahomes finished 36-of-41 passing, setting an NFL record for highest completion percentage (87.8%) in a game with at least 40 pass attempts. He hit his last 20 passes, starting with a great touchdown grab by Marquez Valdes-Scantling to end the first half. He also had the two-point conversion pass in there, so it’s arguably 21 in a row.

Mahomes didn’t hit anything deep in this game as the Chiefs dinked and dunked and picked the Texans apart in the 0-15 yard range. They used short passes as an extension of the run game against the worst run defense, so it was a smart plan. Mahomes’ success rate was 30/49 (61.2%), which is very high for a game. If they can ever figure out how to hang onto the ball better, they wouldn’t need overtime and late-game heroics to beat teams like this.

Titans at Chargers: Herbert Gets Help

Justin Herbert is back to .500 (23-23) in his career after getting more help than usual in a 17-14 win over the Titans. Sure, he still had to throw for over 300 yards, including an absolute dime for 35 yards to Mike Williams on the game-winning drive, but he got some decent contributions from his running game and defense in this one.

Herbert was able to win his first game when throwing multiple interceptions. He was previously 0-6 when that happened. Hell, before Sunday, Herbert was 6-20 when throwing an interception.

The Titans had a team record four straight games without a takeaway before playing some volleyball in the end zone before halftime to end that streak with a Herbert pick. Incredible play. It was that kind of stuff that kept this a 7-7 game for so long. It didn’t help that Ryan Tannehill and Austin Ekeler were knocked out early, but both returned to finish the game. Ekeler showed his strength on a touchdown run and finished with 12 carries for 58 yards. That may not sound like much, but when you can get Herbert 22 carries for 82 yards from the running back position, that’s better than a lot of Chargers games.

After Ekeler’s touchdown gave the Chargers a 14-7 lead in the fourth quarter, both offenses struggled. Eventually, the Titans got the ball back with 2:57 left. Derrick Henry was able to get over 100 yards rushing, and the Titans needed it with Tannehill looking limited on his ankle injury. The drive was starting to flounder before back-to-back throws by Tannehill picked up 45 yards. The Chargers were wise to use timeouts after each red-zone snap, because Mike Vrabel is definitely a coach who will wind the clock down and go for two to win after the touchdown.

Tannehill snuck in the touchdown himself with 48 seconds left. The extra point was the right decision. Overtime and a possible tie would still be advantageous to the Titans in their division race with Jacksonville.

But even without a timeout and 44 seconds left at his own 23, Herbert is good enough to get the job done. He picked up 22 yards in 12 seconds with receivers getting out of bounds, hit the great throw to Williams for 35, then got the spike down. A delay of game penalty wasn’t great, but it wouldn’t be a Chargers game without some drama.

Dicker the Kicker was true from 43 yards with 4 seconds left. The Titans were stopped on the kick return to end the game at 17-4. Tennessee (7-7) has lost four in a row while the Chargers (8-6) are up to the No. 6 seed thanks to the head-to-head win over Miami last week and the losses by the Patriots and Jets.

We are getting closer to Herbert in the postseason after he’s led five game-winning drives in consecutive seasons. Herbert’s 13 game-winning drives are tied with Matt Ryan for the third most in a quarterback’s first three seasons. Only Russell Wilson (15) and Dak Prescott (15) had more.

Lions at Jets: Greg Not Enough Leg Helps Detroit Continue Playoff Push

Bit of an unexpected passing duel outdoors in December between Jared Goff (252 yards) and Zach Wilson (317 yards on 18 completions) with only one turnover in the game.

But most of the game was about defense. You figure the Lions would be at a disadvantage with the No. 31 defense in points and No. 32 in yards while the Jets have been one of the best, but it took one play to swing things. After the Jets took a 17-13 lead, the Lions faced a fourth-and-1 at midfield at the two-minute warning. The Lions rolled the dice with a pass, and backup tight end Brock Wright leaked out uncovered and caught an easy one that he was able to turn into a 51-yard touchdown. It was Detroit’s only 20-yard offensive play in the game.

Only needing a field goal, Wilson took some annoying sacks, but he also did a good job with some miraculous throws and catches by rookie Garrett Wilson. An even greater fourth-and-18 conversion went for 20 yards to Elijah Moore, and the Jets were able to use their final timeout with a second left after that play.

Overtime or a Detroit win would come down to the leg of Greg Zuerlein on a 58-yard field goal. The kick wasn’t even close, and the Lions escaped with the 20-17 win. Both teams are .500 now with 7-7 records. Huge win for Detroit with a more than doable remaining schedule of Panthers, Bears, and Packers.

Ravens at Browns: Not Baltimore’s Day

Hard to believe this was the only game in Week 15 where one team led by 10+ points for the entire 15 minutes of the fourth quarter. It was a lousy kicking day with both kickers missing twice, though Justin Tucker being one of those kickers is the shocking part. He had a 50-yard field goal blocked in the first minute of the fourth quarter to keep it a 13-3 game.

Beyond the uncharacteristic, awful kicking day, the Ravens just didn’t seem to recognize the situation. Cleveland’s offense sucks with Deshaun Watson, who has managed two touchdown drives in three games, and you were playing this game without Lamar Jackson again. Take easy points when they come, so that means not going for it on fourth-and-1 at the Cleveland 7 on your long opening drive by giving the ball to the fullback Patrick Ricard, who was stuffed.

There went three points. Tucker missed a 48-yard field goal before halftime despite making from 53 earlier, so that’s six points. To start the third quarter, Huntley forced an awful pass on third down in the red zone that would have been short of the sticks even if it was caught, and that was intercepted. There’s nine points. The Tucker blocked field goal could have been 12. DeMarcus Robinson also lost a fumble near midfield on a completion in the third quarter.

Just a poor game all around by the passing game and kicking unit. Defense and run game (nearly 200 yards again) were just fine.

It’s the first of Huntley’s eight major appearances that wasn’t decided by 1-to-3 points. The Ravens (9-5) are now in second place in the AFC North and things may very well stay that way the rest of the season.

Falcons at Saints: Bad Start to the Ridder Era

Atlanta rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder made his first start, getting a quick taste of the Saints rivalry. It did not go well. Ridder finished 13-of-26 for 97 yards, took four sacks, and ran six times for 38 yards. The Falcons gave him nearly 200 yards of rushing support to help keep the game close, but he definitely showed some inaccuracy and a lack of experience as you would expect from a third-round rookie in his first start.

Ridder joins a weird list of five other quarterbacks to throw for fewer than 100 yards on more than 25 pass attempts in their first NFL start since 1950:

  • Don Meredith (1960 Cowboys; turned out to be a good player for Dallas)
  • Will Cureton (1975 Browns; only game in his career)
  • Heath Shuler (1994 Redskins; first-round bust for Washington)
  • Jonathan Quinn (1998 Jaguars; forgettable career backup who was a third-round pick in 1998)
  • Doug Pederson (1999 Eagles; much better career as head coach)

We’ll see where Ridder ends up. Rookie wide receiver Drake London had 70 of Ridder’s 97 passing yards, but he also had the big blunder of the game that prevented Ridder from becoming a legend in his first start against the hated Saints. Down 21-18, Ridder looked to convert a fourth-and-5 to London at midfield, but he was stripped of the ball and the Saints recovered with 2:06 left.

The Saints kind of botched the clock situation from there, so Ridder got the ball back with 9 seconds left. After a short completion, he took off for an 18-yard run and dipped out of bounds even though the clock had already expired.

Take note, New England. That’s the moment where you are supposed to throw a lateral back into the field of play.

Ridder will learn. Maybe.


Steelers at Panthers: Pittsburgh Sweeps NFC South

I should have known better with that shit division. The Steelers completed their 4-0 sweep of the NFC South with a 24-16 win in Carolina that wasn’t even that close. The Steelers converted 12-of-16 third downs, used the first 11:43 of the third quarter to go on a 21-play, 91-yard touchdown drive, and completely shut down Carolina’s running game (16 carries for 21 yards).

Earlier this week, I researched what happens the next game after Mike Tomlin’s run defense gives up 180 yards like it did last week against Baltimore, and they still usually allow an average of 107 yards the next game. There’s rarely a huge improvement. But this was a complete shutdown of D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard.

The Steelers would be right in that 8-6 or 9-5 wild card mix if they played this complete of a game a few more times this year against those weaker opponents like the Jets, Patriots, Browns, and even the Dolphins.

Surprisingly, the AFC is only 34-34 vs. NFC this season. However, the NFC South is 3-15 against AFC teams. Of course.

Cardinals at Broncos: Playing Out the String

Week 15 is a little early for a game to be irrelevant, but this matchup had it in spades with the 4-9 Cardinals against the 3-10 Broncos with backup quarterbacks for both sides. Even Colt McCoy didn’t finish the game for the Cardinals due to a concussion. Backup Trace McSorley had to replace him, and McSorley was intercepted in the fourth quarter while trailing 17-9, giving safety Justin Simmons a pick off each Arizona quarterback.

That led to a 5-yard touchdown drive, which all but put the game away at 24-9 in case you were wondering how Denver managed 24 points. Keep in mind the Cardinals entered the week allowing the most points in the league this season, so giving up 24 to Brett Rypien and the Broncos is on brand.

Both teams are 4-10 now and their recaps will only get shorter from here on out. Happy holidays.

Next Week

  • Jags-Jets is the NFL’s classic “if you want to get some late Christmas shopping done Thursday night, go for it” matchup. But this year it’s better than usual with both teams in the playoff hunt and must-win mode.
  • Saturday’s early slate is a bit meh when NYG-MIN is the highlight, but we’ll see how the Vikings follow that 33-point comeback.
  • The Game of the Year in the NFC is probably going to be a 49ers-Eagles NFC Championship Game that we deserve, but I guess Eagles at Cowboys in the 4:25 slot will have to suffice for the regular season. Dallas’ loss in Jacksonville takes some more luster off this one.
  • Watching Derek Carr against the Steelers or a Christmas movie at night? Tough call.
  • Boy, the NFL got hosed on Christmas day. Hard to blame them for thinking GB-MIA, DEN-LAR, and TB-ARI would be hits, but they ended up scheduling five of the most disappointing teams in the league this year.
  • Chargers-Colts should be up for some shenanigans on Monday night.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 13

~ Scott ~ 10 Comments

I knew Sunday was going to be a pivotal one in the NFL, but no one could expect so many quarterback injuries. The 49ers got the worst of it with Jimmy Garoppolo’s broken foot, but we could be seeing the beginning of the end for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens this year, opening the door for the Bengals to take the division and possibly the No. 1 seed.

The Chiefs fell. The Dolphins fell. Anyone who loved the chalky Super Bowl of Bills-Eagles, which looked so good for the first few months, had a great weekend as that looks as likely as ever.

But the season can turn in a snap. The 49ers found that out the hard way on Sunday.

It was a day with nine comeback opportunities in total.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Bengals: Three for Three by Three

Imagine losing to the same team by three points three times in the same calendar year, and they’re not even in your division. The only way it could happen is if you met in January, rematched in the playoffs, then met again the following season as the Chiefs and Bengals have done.

The Chiefs already have their hands full with Josh Allen and the Bills. How do we expect them to get back to a Super Bowl if they can’t beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals too? There’s really not a path in the AFC playoffs where they can avoid both.

The Bills and Bengals are both young, cocky teams who only gain more confidence each time they knock off the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs these days go as Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce go. On Sunday, Kelce had a poor game. Who is going to step up to help him out? Not this guy. The Chiefs do a lot of talking, but it’s a flawed roster with a lot of players trying to piggyback off the success of the best quarterback and tight end in the league.

On a day when CBS’ Jim Nantz and Tony Romo decided to have an ill-timed dynasty discussion about the Chiefs in the first quarter, the Bengals showed once again why that talk is neither valid nor necessary in 2022.

The Chiefs came into Week 13 with a defense ranked No. 23 in points per drive allowed. After a 27-24 final in which each offense only had eight possessions, that number is only going to get worse. This is not a championship-caliber defense, and the Bengals were the latest talented offense to expose it with no turnovers, only one sack surrendered, and 7-of-11 on third down.

The Bengals even helped the Chiefs out with an awful play call on fourth-and-1 before halftime and Tyler Boyd dropped a wide-open touchdown in the third quarter, leading the Bengals to settle for a field goal.

In a game with so few possessions, every mistake would be magnified. Kansas City’s fourth drive lasted just 49 seconds before halftime as the Chiefs simply ran the ball twice deep in their own end. When you only let Mahomes touch the ball seven times, and you end two of those drives with a fumble and missed field goal, your chances of winning are slim to none with this defense.

But the Chiefs did take a 24-17 lead into the fourth quarter after Mahomes barely broke the plane by going vertical on a fourth-and-3 run for a touchdown. They had a chance to build on a 24-20 lead in the fourth quarter, but after having such a quiet game, Kelce tried to get extra yards in traffic, and the Bengals stripped him before he was down for a huge fumble at midfield.

The Bengals turned that into the go-ahead touchdown and 27-24 lead. The Chiefs needed an answer, but pressure short-circuited the drive with Mahomes losing 4 yards on a third-down sack, the second third-down sack in the game. I did not notice the Bengals using a lot of the three-man rush from the second half of the AFC title game, but it did pop up on one third down when Mahomes held the ball forever and a 34-yard gain was wiped out by multiple linemen being illegally down the field. If they frustrated him in this game, it was usually timely on a couple third downs, which is sometimes all you need in a game with eight possessions.

Harrison Butker had a tough job on his hands, and his 55-yard field goal was wide right with 3:19 left. The Chiefs had four clock stoppages left, but do you trust this defense? The Bengals didn’t even play it that great with Ja’Marr Chase, who caught almost everything in his return game for 97 yards, going out of bounds twice, Burrow taking a bad sack, and the Bengals needing to overcome a third-and-11 at the two-minute warning.

But on that third-and-11, the Chiefs seemed to slow up at Burrow’s right side on a quick rush, and he got the pass off on time and accurately to Tee Higgins for 14 yards and the conversion. Game over. Another 27-24 final but done dramatically different from the AFC Championship Game, which had 21 possessions from the two teams.

Chase and Valdes-Scantling each had two 20-yard plays, and they were the only such plays in the game. Kelce provided the obligatory Chiefs fumble this week, and it was a costly one.

With the remaining schedule, the Chiefs could still finish 14-3 and get the No. 1 seed if the Bills slip up once. Two games against Denver and one with Houston could get the defense up to middle of the road in scoring.

But when push comes to shove against the best of the best in the AFC, it doesn’t feel like these teams have to prove they can beat the Chiefs anymore. Since losing their last Super Bowl appearance, the Chiefs are 1-6 against the Bills, Bengals, and Ravens.

The next time a booth wants to do a dynasty discussion, I hope they start on that note, but I have my doubts. Just as I’m going to have my doubts the next time the Chiefs go into a big game against the Bills or Bengals.

Dolphins at 49ers: Great Defense Beats Great Passing Offense Again

This was another one of the day’s letdowns as it could have been a shootout between Tua Tagovailoa and Jimmy Garoppolo. Instead, the Dolphins got the quick strike with a 75-yard touchdown on the opening play before doing little on offense the rest of the way. The 49ers got a field goal, but Garoppolo broke his foot on a sack on that opening drive, so his season is over too.

Enter Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant from this year’s draft. He was more than respectable given his lack of experience as he threw the first two touchdowns of his career. The 49ers were not afraid to let him throw 37 times too. He was able to convert some third downs while the Dolphins were 0-for-7 on third down.

I went from skeptical to impressed by Tua this week, but it seems like any time I write something nice about a player I usually don’t praise, he proves in the very next game why I’ve been right to cover him the way I have. His accuracy was bad in this game, because the Dolphins were getting their receivers open against this vaunted defense. Jaylen Waddle was also injured and only caught one ball, which didn’t help matters. The Dolphins also conceded they wouldn’t be able to run on the top run defense, so the running backs only had 8 carries for 33 yards.

Tua was going to have to be sharp in this one, and he just wasn’t. But after one quick strike to Tyreek Hill for a 45-yard touchdown, this was just a 23-17 game with most of the fourth quarter left. The 49ers’ second-half shutout streak ended at four games.

But when Tagovailoa got the ball back, he just had to convert a fourth-and-2 at the San Francisco 36 with just over six minutes left. Somehow, the officials ruled Mike Gesicki made a 3-yard catch when it was pretty clear he never had control of it. The 49ers challenged a completion for the second time on this drive, and for the second time it was correctly overturned. You never see two challenges work on the same drive for the same play type.

The Dolphins fell apart after that failed conversion. Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey ripped off big runs and that led to a field goal that was all but clinching with 2:03 left to make it 26-17. Nick Bosa buried Tua in motion on a strip-sack that was returned for a touchdown and could have seriously injured the quarterback. That’s how the 49ers turned a game where they were 36 yards away from trailing in the final minutes to a 16-point knockout.

But it is a real bummer to have a Super Bowl-ready roster and to lose two starting quarterbacks well after the trade deadline has passed. No rookie quarterback has ever started a Super Bowl, and I’m not sure Purdy has the right stuff to break that glass ceiling. The team is reportedly adding Josh Johnson, but he has played for more NFL teams (14) than he has touchdown passes (13).

If Nick Mullens can throw for a historic number of yards under Kyle Shanahan, then maybe they can figure things out with Purdy. He’ll have the best defense and arguably the best set of skill players at his disposal. But the chances of going on the road in the playoffs and winning somewhere like Philadelphia? Just dwindled. Even the division isn’t safe anymore after the Seahawks won in LA.

It sucks because I really wanted to see this Garoppolo situation through this year and what they would do if he was in a third NFC Championship Game and second Super Bowl in four seasons. Now it’s a the third-string rookie quarterback.

Colts at Cowboys: 50 Burger on SNF?

Hard to believe the Colts were a failed two-point conversion away from taking a 21-21 tie into the fourth quarter. Still, at 21-19, you could not have imagined a 33-0 run by Dallas in the fourth quarter for a 54-19 win (first of its kind). This is only the fifth time in NFL history a team won a quarter with a shutout of at least 33 points:

The Colts were the only team in the NFL this season that had not allowed more than 27 points in any game. The Cowboys doubled them up on that, and they had 33 in one quarter.

It was as if the competitive game no one expected ran its course, then the fourth quarter was an overcorrection to the mismatch this looked like on paper with Dallas’ offense being too much for Indy, and Dallas’ pass rush being too much for Matt Ryan and the line.

The Colts turned the ball over on four consecutive drives in the fourth quarter to fuel that 33-0 run, including a Mo Alie-Cox fumble that was returned for a touchdown.

The Cowboys now have the two-highest scoring games this season at 54 and 49 points. They look Super Bowl ready when they do this stuff, but the more you look at the schedule, the more likely it appears they are going to start their playoff run as the No. 5 seed in Tampa Bay, the NFC South winner. That’s the defense that made Dak Prescott look so bad in Week 1 that this figured to be a lost season for the Cowboys.

Some revenge would be sweet in that one, but you could see it going terribly wrong too in a low-scoring mess. But Dallas has plenty of time to get this machine ready for a playoff run. The news out of San Francisco is making it likely that Dallas is the best team outside of the Eagles in the NFC.

Jets at Vikings: Mike White Got That Feral Cat in Him

It was technically a wire-to-wire win for the Vikings, because they never trailed, but it was another close win in the end for Minnesota. The Jets outgained the Vikings by 199 yards, but 1 yard in particular is going to haunt the team from coming up short in the latest chapter of the Mike White story.

Down 27-15 in the fourth quarter, White scored on a 1-yard touchdown run on a fourth down with 6:45 left, leaving plenty of time to complete the comeback. But after getting to the 1-yard line again with a second down, the Jets ended up inexplicably throwing two more passes and turning it over on downs after Braxton Berrios failed to hang on to White’s fourth-down pass in the end zone.

Didn’t anyone watch TCU this weekend, or the previous drive in this game for that matter? Run the damn quarterback at the goal line. It’s a cheat code, but the Jets didn’t do it, and they paid for it.

They still got the ball back with plenty of time (1:19 to drive 43 yards) to complete the comeback, but the drive stalled with White throwing four straight incompletions from the Minnesota 19, including a pick on fourth down that he just forced out.

White passed for 369 yards, but it took 57 attempts this week. It was a bit miraculous for the Jets to be so close after going 3-for-16 on third down, but they just needed a better series of calls at the goal line.

Titans at Eagles: Great Day for Philly

Did any team have a better day than the Eagles? They scored five touchdowns against a Tennessee team that only allowed more than 22 points in one game this season. They shut down Derrick Henry (11 carries for 30 yards), which has been the case for nearly a month now for the Titans. Jalen Hurts had one of his finest games ever with 380 yards and three touchdown passes.

The Eagles are just the third team in NFL history to rush for 350 yards and pass for 350 yards in consecutive games (in either order according to Elias). The A.J. Brown revenge game was very successful with 119 yards and two touchdowns.

Blasting the Titans with Ryan Tannehill 35-10 is an impressive win. The Eagles (11-1) are on the road the next three weeks and we’ll see how those division games go, but this looks like a very complete team. Dallas might be the only real contender in Philadelphia’s path to the Super Bowl now that Garoppolo is done in San Francisco.

Commanders at Giants: Ties Are for Losers

A tie between division rivals who are battling for the playoffs? Well, that’s as annoying as it gets. But the Giants really should have won this one. It was an awful time to take a taunting penalty when the Giants could have kicked a field goal to take a 23-13 lead in the final minutes. Instead they punted.

The defense collapsed on the ensuing drive. I have to say I would have punted on fourth-and-4 at my 27 with 2:47 left if I was Washington. You don’t convert there, and the game is all but over, but Ron Rivera rolled the dice and Taylor Heinicke extended the play to make it happen for a 20-yard gain. Three plays later, Washington was in the end zone to tie it.

The last seven drives never really materialized for either team. Maybe the Giants should have gone for a fourth-and-3 at the Washington 45 with 1:42 left in overtime, but I guess they saw value in playing for the tie. When they got the ball back with 28 seconds left, Daniel Jones was able to set up Graham Gano for a 58-yard field goal as the final play. Tough kick but he’s made longer.

The field goal was short, and it’s just another game like most overtime ties where a game-winning field goal was missed.

But with the Giants (7-4-1) and Commanders (7-5-1) in a heated playoff race, a tie just feels extra wrong in this scenario. I’m going to say advantage Commanders though. They didn’t take the loss after trailing 20-13 late, they get a bye week now, and they get the rematch at home in two weeks.

The Giants may still ultimately get in the playoffs, but they could be kicking themselves for not closing this one out properly. Unlike those pesky Vikings, the Giants seem to have used up their magic beans in close games before Halloween.

Seahawks at Rams: Bobby Wagner Revenge Game Spoiled by Rare Geno Comeback

Linebacker Bobby Wagner was in Beast Mode against his former team with two sacks, three tackles for loss, and an interception that defied logic late in the third quarter. I sure thought there was evidence of the receiver being down before Wagner ripped the ball away. This would have been a more controversial call if the Rams weren’t suffering the worst Super Bowl title defense in NFL history.

 But the Rams turned that into a field goal, the Seahawks matched, then the Rams took a surprising 23-20 lead late after backup John Wolford led a 75-yard touchdown drive capped off by a 6-yard run by Cam Akers.

Geno Smith was having a fine game, but he was 3-15 in his career at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities, one of the worst records all time. But on this day without any Aaron Donald to worry about, Geno was able to get it done with his receivers having big days. DK Metcalf caught the 8-yard laser for the game-winning touchdown with 36 seconds left to put Seattle back on top at 27-23.

Wolford chucked up an ugly pick out of desperation on fourth-and-20 to end the game. The Rams are 3-9 and moving in on the worst record ever for a defending champ.

The Seahawks (7-5) may have saved their season and kept hope alive for winning the NFC West, especially after the Garoppolo news in San Francisco. The teams will meet again in Week 15 on a Thursday in Seattle with the Seahawks looking for a split.

Just the fourth 4QC win of Smith’s career may go down as a big one for this season’s story.

Chargers at Raiders: Vegas’ Two-Headed Monster Impresses

You might see 27-20, Justin Herbert with 335 yards, and think another AFC West shootout. But that really was not the case. The Raiders played some great defense in this one as Derek Carr had a pick-six early, so the Vegas defense held Herbert to 13 points, sacked him five times, and forced a fumble from Austin Ekeler. It was a very fine performance on that side of the ball for the Raiders, which have been hard to come by this year.

These teams came in ranked 26th and 29th in points allowed in the same exact spots they ranked last season. But the Raiders got it done this week. On offense, you have to liked the simplified approach after sending Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller to injured reserve after disappointing seasons. This offense is thriving with basically a two-headed monster of Davante Adams (177 yards and two touchdowns) and Josh Jacobs (144 yards and a touchdown). You know where the ball is going, yet these guys have rarely been stopped as the Raiders have won three in a row.

Not that there’s any consolation prize, but I think the Raiders (5-7) are the best team in the NFL with a losing record right now. This team would be right in that playoff mix without all the blown three-score leads.

As for the Chargers, I just wonder how hot that seat is going to get for Brandon Staley if this thing continues going south. The Chargers (6-6) are now the No. 9 seed with the Dolphins and Titans up next.

Broncos at Ravens: Déjà vu?

The quickest get-rich scheme in the NFL this year would have been to bet the house on the under hitting in every Denver game. You’d be 11-1 right now. The 2022 Broncos are the first team in NFL history to score between 9-23 points in their first 12 games. Only two teams in NFL history have had a longer streak at any point in a season or multiple seasons.

The latest embarrassment is a 10-9 loss to Baltimore with Lamar Jackson exiting early with a knee injury. The Broncos blew their fourth lead in the fourth quarter, but it’s hard to say an offense that scores 9 points deserves to win the game. Denver was 2-of-12 on third down.

Tyler Huntley replaced Jackson as he did last year, and he had a very amusing game: 27-of-32 for 187 yards, interception, 10 runs for 41 yards and the game-winning touchdown run with 28 seconds left. So many short plays, but he found a way to put together a 91-yard drive at the end. Of course, it would have been a four-and-out if Mark Andrews didn’t make a great effort on a fourth-and-1 direct snap from under center to convert at the Baltimore 18. Game over if that play fails with the Ravens down 9-3.

Still, it’s hard to feel good about the win for the Ravens with the offense continuing to underperform and losing Jackson. They also needed Brandon McManus to come up short on a 63-yard field goal to avoid another bad loss. The kick was straight enough. Just not deep enough.

Worse, is history repeating itself? The Ravens were 8-4 last year, then Jackson was injured early in the Week 14 game against Cleveland. John Harbaugh was calling it a day-to-day injury and acting like Jackson could be back the next game. He never played another down, the Ravens lost their last five games to finish 8-9, and the team missed the playoffs.

It could very well be Tyler Huntley in Pittsburgh next week against a team that is gaining confidence. Harbaugh is acting like Jackson did not have a serious injury, but here we go again in Baltimore.

Hurry-Up Finish

We’ll conclude with four games that really do not matter for the playoff races. It is December, so you can expect to start seeing a smaller word count on teams like the Texans, Bears, and Jaguars.

Browns at Texans: Allen vs. Predator Is a Flop

This game was fucking gross on multiple levels. The only way it would have been worse is if the Browns had a good record and were right in the playoff hunt, and they benched Jacoby Brissett for this.

I bet Brissett wouldn’t have thrown that horrible red-zone pick. I bet he would have led an offensive touchdown drive or two. I bet the offense would have fed Nick Chubb properly instead of trying to get their new predator at quarterback comfortable in the offense even though the running game would have destroyed Houston.

It’s a good thing the Texans started Kyle Allen, because the Browns were able to return two of his turnovers for touchdowns. The special teams also got the scoring going with a 76-yard punt return touchdown. Six points on 12 drives for Watson, and one of those field goals was a drive with no first downs. Brilliant stuff.

I think I’ve made it clear in the past that I think the contract Cleveland gave Deshaun Watson is disgusting. Make him earn his way back to big money like Philadelphia did with Michael Vick, someone who actually served his time and showed remorse for what he did. All the Browns did was empower Watson with one of the richest contracts in history, and he still doesn’t think he did anything wrong.

Watson finished 12-of-22 for 131 yards, his second-fewest yards in a start. He’ll get a pass for rust, which is valid. But he only has himself to blame for why this was his first start in the last two seasons.

Packers at Bears: He Still Owns Them

Aaron Rodgers is 25-4 in games he starts and finishes against the Bears. That now includes seven game-winning drives, matching the seven he has against the Lions for his most against an opponent. Fourteen of Rodgers’ 32 game-winning drives are against the Bears and Lions.

If there was a perfect game for the Bears to rough up Rodgers and send him packing with a losing record, it was this one with Green Bay at 4-8 and Rodgers leaving last week’s game with a rib injury.

But even after leading 16-3 in the first half, leading 19-10 to start the fourth quarter, getting 254 passing yards out of Justin Fields to go along with his usual rushing output (71 yards and a touchdown), it still wasn’t enough for Chicago. The Packers got their running game going, Rodgers came through late, the special teams blocked a 40-yard field goal, the defense intercepted Fields just outside of scoring range, and Christian Watson showed off his big-play ability with a 46-yard touchdown run at the two-minute warning.

The Bears are now tied with the 1950 Redskins for the second-longest losing streak in NFL history with at least 125 rushing yards in each game. That streak is at six games. The record is 11 games by the 1976-77 Bills.

Once again, the Packers beat the Bears 28-19, the only team they’ve been able to beat by more than three points in their last 15 games. If this is the last time they see Rodgers, they should be happy about that.

Fittingly, the win was Green Bay’s 787th in the regular season, surpassing the Bears for the most wins in NFL history. It is the first time the Bears have not held that record since 1921. Maybe they take that crown back soon enough if this is the end of the Rodgers era, but if the Chicago offense keeps closing games like it has this year, even the Jordan Love era might add on to this lead.

Steelers at Falcons: If We Can’t Cancel the NFC South, How About Benching Mariota?

Yes, I ended up watching the entire game. Pittsburgh’s offense once again looked competent with no turnovers, a productive ground game, and Kenny Pickett doing just enough for a win. Nothing spectacular but much better than where they were before the bye. Najee Harris really does look like a different player since the bye. Still not worth a first-round pick but doing his best to shed the T-Rich comparison.

But I think the Falcons need to bench Marcus Mariota after this one. He was getting a lot of open looks on play-action passes, Drake London was getting open, and Mariota’s accuracy was poor for much of the game. His pass protection mostly held up well too. He’s just not much of a passer and needs to be on a team with a No. 1 defense if they’re going to win games.

Mike Tomlin made a pretty wise decision late in the game to punt with a 19-16 lead instead of trying a 53-yard field goal to take the dreaded 6-point lead with just under a minute left. It helped that the punt was great and pinned Mariota at his own 2 from where he promptly ended the game with a pass intercepted by Minkah Fitzpatrick.

The Steelers (5-7) have their first winning streak in 2022 and would win the NFC South this year if they were eligible to. Just need to beat Carolina to complete the division sweep.

Jaguars at Lions: Back to Square One for Jags

I thought Jacksonville being favored earlier in the week was a huge overreaction to Week 12. By game time, the Lions were a 1-point favorite, and they made quick work of Jacksonville in a 40-14 win. When Jared Goff is on, this offense is well built and fun to watch. Didn’t even think about the DJ Chark Revenge Game, but he had 98 yards to go along with Amon-Ra St. Brown’s two touchdowns.

The good news for Jacksonville is Trevor Lawrence avoided a season-ending injury after a nasty twist on a takedown. He ended up finishing the game after that. Lawrence has yet to miss a start from injury, but this one was a close call.

Next Week

  • Island games (LV-LAR, LAC-MIA, NE-ARI) look bad even though we know the Chargers will find some interesting way to lose SNF.
  • Of course Garoppolo breaks his foot right before the 49ers are going to face Tampa Bay…
  • It looks like division games will have to deliver to save this week (Jets-Bills, Bengals-Browns, Eagles-Giants).

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 11

~ Scott ~ 11 Comments

Week 11 showed the value of flex scheduling in the NFL as the fifth round of Patrick Mahomes vs. Justin Herbert on Sunday night salvaged a day of bad football where we didn’t even learn that much:

  • The Patriots still own the Jets even if neither belongs anywhere near the postseason.
  • The Eagles and Bills can still win without bringing their A game, especially if they get to play the Browns and Colts.
  • The Broncos, Panthers, and Texans still can’t score points, and the Bears can’t score them when you need them on the last drive.
  • Kirk Cousins and the Vikings didn’t waste any time to make my claims that they are frauds look valid, losing 40-3 to Dallas.
  • Mahomes is still in his own tier of quarterbacks and the MVP race is likely over.

At least it was cool to see a kick return touchdown and a punt return touchdown of great significance in the same time slot.

We had seven games with a comeback opportunity, though the Jets-Patriots game was so bad that it technically didn’t qualify as one in the sense that neither offense had the ball in the fourth quarter while trailing.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Chargers: The Best Division Rivalry Going

It really does not matter that the Chiefs are 4-1 in these Patrick Mahomes vs. Justin Herbert showdowns. Every game had a lead change in the fourth quarter or overtime, and no division rivalry since 2020 has been more exciting to watch than when these two go at it.

I thought the Week 15 matchup on a Thursday night was the best game of the 2021 regular season. Travis Kelce ended that one 34-28 in overtime. Kelce was at it again on Sunday night with three touchdowns, including the game winner with 31 seconds left in one of this year’s best games. The Chiefs in prime time have been must-see TV this year, and with the way Mahomes has played in these high-profile games, it is hard to see anyone else winning the MVP award now.

This one may have sealed it up as he excelled despite not having top wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman. Kadarius Toney was supposed to be his new toy and he left this game with zero catches and another hamstring injury (story of his career).

Marquez Valdes-Scantling was a huge disappointment with one 18-yard catch, but at least he picked the first play of the game-winning drive to have an impact. After a back-and-forth final quarter with the teams exchanging fumbles, it really didn’t seem like the Chiefs were going to pull it off this time after Herbert threw a touchdown to Josh Palmer with 1:46 left to take a 27-23 lead. Herbert converted a third-and-18 on the drive to Keenan Allen, who made up for his fumble with his best game of an injury-ravaged season.

But it felt like the depleted wide receiver corps was going to catch up to Mahomes in this spot. Kelce is great, but why wouldn’t the Chargers just double him and force these receivers like MVS and rookie Skyy Moore to step up? Remember, it was Moore who Mahomes tried throwing to against Buffalo on the game-ending interception in Week 6.

But Moore seized this opportunity and played his best game with five catches for 63 yards, and he didn’t fumble a punt.

Mahomes also used his legs well as he often does against the Chargers. He had two scrambles for 22 yards on the final drive. After his 16-yard run, he found Kelce left in single coverage again and the Hall of Famer strutted his way 17 yards for the go-ahead touchdown to take a 30-27 lead. The best duo in the game did it again to the Chargers.

There was enough time for the Chargers to answer with three timeouts, but Herbert seemed to draw inspiration from Mahomes’ runs on the GWD. But when he tried to run himself on a weird, almost QB draw look, the Chiefs read it well and pounced on him for a 5-yard loss that went down as a sack.

On the next play, Herbert just tried to force a throw and it was tipped and intercepted on the deflection to end the game. The Tony Romo is strong in this one as Herbert suffers another fourth-quarter interception in prime time in a game where he did do his job earlier.

But Mahomes just does a better job than anyone at the position. A lot of decent quarterbacks can lead one big touchdown drive, especially if given multiple attempts, but how often do you see someone do it multiple times after his defense squanders the lead?

This is already the fourth comeback win in Mahomes’ career where he had to lead multiple go-ahead touchdown drives in the fourth quarter or overtime (2019 Lions, 2020 Raiders, 2021 Bills in playoffs, and Sunday night in LA). Four times.

Do you know how many of Tom Brady’s 52 fourth-quarter comeback wins saw him lead multiple go-ahead touchdown drives? Try one, and it was against Mahomes in the 2018 AFC Championship Game after Mahomes twice put the Chiefs ahead in the fourth before losing 37-31 after the overtime coin flip.

That could have been a fifth time for Mahomes, and this doesn’t include last year’s OT win against the Chargers were Mahomes led two game-tying touchdown drives plus a game-winning touchdown drive in overtime.

Even when the Chargers pressure him better than most, Mahomes always seems to find Kelce or an open receiver on third downs. The Chargers stopped Mahomes from scoring on four drives: one was the Jerick McKinnon fumble, and another was the end of the first half (14-second drive).

The Chargers (5-5) are in a tough spot for the playoffs and likely just lost the division again to the Chiefs (8-2), who should win it for a seventh year in a row, just the third team to do so. But once again, this Los Angeles team is so close to doing something great. The Chargers led in the fourth quarter in both games against the Chiefs this year. If they could ever find a way to stay healthy and hang on, then these standings could look very different right now if the Chargers were 7-3 and the Chiefs were 6-4.

But until the Chargers figure out how to close these games, they are going to play second fiddle to Mahomes and Kelce.

Join the club.

Cowboys at Vikings: Frauds, He Said

I spent a decent part of my week preparing why I think the 2022 Vikings are frauds, how Kirk Cousins was statistically having his worst season, and why I liked Dallas to end this streak of close wins. Minnesota could have been the first team in NFL history to win eight straight games by 1-to-8 points.

Well, the Vikings are still perfect in close games this year because they just got their asses handed to them 40-3 at home by Dallas.

This game was over before halftime with the Vikings faceplanting worse than usual against a top opponent. This was one of the top beatdowns of the season:

  • The Vikings had one play gain more than 15 yards (17-yard run by Dalvin Cook with 5 yards tacked on for defensive holding).
  • Dallas RB Tony Pollard was untouched on touchdown catches of 30 and 68 yards.
  • The Cowboys threw four incomplete passes (26-of-30) and allowed zero sacks.
  • Ezekiel Elliott only had 15 carries for 42 yards in his return game, but he still scored two touchdowns.
  • Kirk Cousins was sacked seven times as the offensive line was overwhelmed by Dallas’ tough front.
  • Cousins didn’t throw a pick, but he lost an early fumble and finished with 105 yards passing (not excluding the 49 lost on sacks).
  • Third downs: Dallas was 12-of-17 and Minnesota was 1-of-11.
  • Cowboys led 23-3 at halftime and won 40-3 with both teams pulling starters early.

If it wasn’t for the Buffalo meltdown last week, the Vikings would have ugly double-digit losses to the Eagles and Cowboys, and a bad loss to Buffalo where they were down 17 points. Otherwise, they would be 7-0 with a handful of close wins over some pretty weak teams they had to come back against in the fourth quarter.

In other words, a Minnesota season you could understand instead of the one we have where the Vikings are now 8-2 with a minus-2 scoring differential thanks to this game.

Yes, this is historic. The 2022 Vikings are the first 8-2 team with a negative scoring differential. There were a handful of 7-3 teams to do so, including the 2020 Browns who were 7-3 with a minus-23 differential.

We get to see this Minnesota team again on Thursday night against a Bill Belichick defense that just held the Jets to a field goal in 60 minutes. Sounds fun.

But watch out for these Cowboys. Using Pollard more can open up that offense in ways we’re not used to, maybe they’ll sign Odell Beckham soon enough to go with CeeDee Lamb, and that defense can get after it. The only thing missing is our trust that Mike McCarthy won’t screw it up in the playoffs. From the team that brought us the quarterback draw with no timeouts against the 49ers, that is still a big dilemma to have.

But what a performance on Sunday to make me not have to eat crow with my turkey and stuffing this week after putting down the Vikings.

Eagles at Colts: The Stench of Frank Reich Was Strong in This One

This game was supposed to be Frank Reich taking on his former assistant and Eagles coach Nick Sirianni, but it turned out to be interim coach Jeff Saturday nearly pulling off a 2-0 start and handing the Eagles a losing streak.

Alas, it ended up being the kind of disappointing loss that fits in so well with the rest of the Reich era in Indy. The Colts blew a 13-3 lead in the fourth quarter, the kicker let them down again, the defense let them down late, and the offense couldn’t answer when all that was needed was a field goal. One that probably would have missed anyway, but at least the chance was there.

The Colts could have taken a 16-3 lead into the fourth quarter, but Chase McLaughlin was wide right on a 50-yard field goal with 35 seconds left in the third quarter.

The Eagles had lost 43 games in a row when trailing by double digits to start the fourth quarter. The last win was in 2010 against the Giants in the DeSean Jackson punt return touchdown game. The Eagles had two wins (2012 Buccaneers and 2020 Giants) since then when trailing by double digits at any point in the fourth quarter, but this stat is based on the start of the fourth.

After the front-running Eagles finally scored a touchdown, Jonathan Taylor and A.J. Brown inexplicably traded fumbles. The Colts drove to the Philadelphia 5, but the overpaid offensive line again faltered, and Matt Ryan took a third-down sack, forcing another field goal attempt and 16-10 lead.

With 4:37 left, Jalen Hurts used his arm and legs to put together arguably the most significant drive of his career to this point. He finished it off with a scramble right up the middle for a 7-yard touchdown run with 1:20 left for a 17-16 lead.

Ryan only needed a field goal to win, and he has been solid with game-winning drives this season. But the drive stalled quickly with Brandon Graham forcing a big sack (no flag this week after the Taylor Heinicke cheapie on Monday night), and Ryan checked down on fourth-and-21 to end the game. Christ, Matt.

The Eagles escaped to move to 9-1, but they are looking might ordinary these days. I really would have liked to see Saturday pull out the win if only to continue tearing down the mythos and dumb conventional wisdom for how coaches are hired in this league. If someone with almost no experience can beat the team with the best record in the league, then what does that tell you about the job? Stop gatekeeping it from people who know the game but maybe aren’t in the right good old boy network.

Browns at Bills: Was Nick Chubb Wearing Snow Boots?

The Browns and Bills avoided a major blizzard with over 75 inches of snow by having the game moved to the comfy dome in Detroit. But if you thought the Bills would light it up indoors with Josh Allen trying to clean up his recent mistakes, you would have been wrong. The Bills actually approached this game as if it was a snow game as the usually limited running game piled up 86 yards each from Devin Singletary and rookie James Cook.

Those 172 yards almost matched what Allen (197) passed for in the game. Meanwhile, the Bills flexed their muscles on defense by holding Nick Chubb to 14 carries for 19 yards. Chubb had never been held to under 2.0 yards per carry on more than three carries in his career until Sunday.

But it was a mixed bag for the defense as a hole as Jacoby Brissett passed for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Sure, two touchdowns came after the Bills led 28-10, but they still required a shaky onside kick recovery in the final minute to end the game at 31-23. The Bills were also fortunate to recover a fumbled snap and block a 34-yard field goal in the third quarter.

The lack of passing had Stefon Diggs frustrated on the sideline, but he did manage to catch a short touchdown. Allen finished without an interception after a three-game streak with multiple picks.

It wasn’t the kind of performance that would make anyone who jumped off the Buffalo bandwagon hop back on, but it was a relatively low-stress win during a chaotic week for the area with the snow and the awful loss the Bills had a week ago to Minnesota.

Now we’ll see them right back in Detroit on Thursday for the early Thanksgiving game. Weird how that turned out, but you can also probably expect a better challenge from the Lions than what the Browns had here despite the final score.

Bengals at Steelers: So Much for Week 1

This rematch was like night and day from Week 1. Both offenses looked good this time, though the Bengals sustained their performance for the full game behind a big road performance from Joe Burrow (355 yards and four touchdowns) while the Steelers basically fell apart in the second half after their best 30 minutes of offense in a long time.

Nothing sums it up better than this: Pittsburgh trailed 27-23 on two fourth quarter drives that made it inside the Cincinnati 40, and the offense ended up punting on both possessions.

Meanwhile, the defense did create a few picks, including a great one by T.J. Watt, but the offense just didn’t make them count after putting up 20 points before halftime. Burrow, who was only sacked twice after seven times in the opener, also had too easy of a time throwing three touchdowns to backup running back Samaje Perine.

Kenny Pickett finished another game without an interception, but I’d like to see something better than two first downs on the first seven possessions out of halftime. That’s where the game was lost.

I had the stat last week about how Andy Dalton never scored more than 21 points in 17 starts (16 with Cincinnati) against Pittsburgh. The defense can still handle Dalton as last week showed, but someone of Burrow’s talent is a different story. If not for a blocked extra point or missed 29-yard field goal in overtime in Week 1, Burrow would have four straight wins over the Steelers with at least 23 points scored in each game. He already has as many wins as Dalton, who is 3-14 against Pittsburgh.

But the 37-30 final was not lost on me in Bengals-Steelers lore as it made me think of the time Ben Roethlisberger lost a 38-31 game at home to Carson Palmer and the 2005 Bengals, the last time it really felt like the Bengals had an unstoppable offense that could do real damage to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. That was also the first time Roethlisberger led the Steelers to 30 points and lost.

This was the first time Pickett led his team to 30 points, and he can join a nice list of quarterbacks like Dan Marino and Peyton Manning to lose their first start when they score 30 points (regardless of venue). But that last touchdown had a smell of garbage time to it, or maybe it was just the fluke catch by Olszewski to put the ball at the 1-yard line after a defender tipped it.

Such is life with a young, unproven quarterback. The first half had me as encouraged as I’ve been all season with Pickett. The second half had me wondering what this team will do with a high draft pick.

But it was a big win for the Bengals (6-4), who need all the wins they can get with the games they have left.

Jets at Patriots: You Had One Job

I cannot believe I am saying this, but the Patriots deserved this win, and they did not cheat to get it. That was not a block in the back on the game-winning punt return touchdown with five seconds left. He contacted the Jets player at his shoulder. Clean play, and the latest game-winning punt return in a fourth quarter since Philadelphia’s DeSean Jackson did it with no time left against the Giants in 2010.

New England’s 14th-straight win over the Jets was the hardest-earned yet, but it was deserving with the Patriots holding the Jets to 2 yards of offense after halftime. The Patriots never found the end zone on offense either in this 3-3 deadlock, but they should have had two more field goals if not for a bad wind day that caused havoc on the kicks.

Despite taking six sacks, Mac Jones was 23-of-27 for 246 yards. You know, actual NFL quarterback stuff.

But Zach Wilson? The fact that he escaped with zero interceptions on the stat sheet is a flat out travesty as the Patriots flat out dropped multiple picks.

Wilson’s success rate was 1-for-15 in the second half. If we include a play negated by penalty, then he was 2-for-16. His best play of the second half was taking a sack on third-and-10 that was negated for a defensive holding penalty for an automatic first down. The 5 yards gained on that penalty were more than the 2 yards the Jets gained on offense after halftime.

But that drive would end after Wilson threw a swing pass on third-and-1 that lost 2 yards and set up the Jets for fourth-and-3 deep in their own end. They had no choice but to punt and likely go to overtime where this shitshow had 3-3 tie written all over it.

This game needed a return touchdown to avoid a tie, but you expected it to come from the defense after one of these quarterbacks made a mistake. Instead, it came from New England’s special teams as Marcus Jones was able to go 84 yards for the first punt return touchdown in the 2022 NFL season with five seconds left. Incredible. Jones was third in the league in punt return average (13.4) coming into the week and you can move him up to at least No. 2 after this one.

The Jets were pathetic in every sense of the word on offense, and Wilson was a huge part of the problem despite the zero interceptions in the box score.

But if you thought there would be any accountability on his part, even a standard “I have to be better” response, you weren’t getting it from Wilson after the game:

He said “no” as quickly and decisively as if someone asked me if I wanted mushrooms on my burger. This makes Pittsburgh’s loss to the Jets and Wilson look a lot worse than it did the day it happened. They really let this little prick score two touchdowns on them in the fourth quarter at home.

I really hope we don’t see either one of these teams in the playoffs. Give us a Joe Burrow vs. Justin Herbert game any day over this.

Lions at Giants: Felt Like Preseason Expectations

The preseason odds show the Giants being slightly more favored to do something this year than the Lions, but it sure felt like more people were on the Lions going into this season. Maybe it was Dan Campbell’s quotes and Hard Knocks, but the Giants mostly just had that easy schedule going for them and the hope that Brian Daboll could do something with Daniel Jones.

Well, on Sunday he got the first 300-yard game out of Jones this year, but it came because Saquon Barkley was shut down (15 carries for 22 yards) and the Giants were trailing for the last 35 minutes.

Jones doubled his season interception count from two to for and the Lions were able to win 31-18 after Jamaal Williams scored three more touchdowns.

It wasn’t a flashy Lions performance. It was just good trench play with rookie Aidan Hutchinson intercepting Jones in the second quarter to start the ball rolling Detroit’s way. Jared Goff avoided the big mistakes Jones didn’t, and Barkley just had nothing going on the ground for his worst game of the season.

This is much more in line with the team we envisioned Campbell would have in Detroit this year. Not the team that was No. 1 on offense, No. 32 on defense after four or five games. Detroit has won three in a row with more of the defensive approach expected.

The Giants are still okay at 7-3, but you can see how things could spiral out of control here with the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, an improved Washington team twice, the Eagles twice, and the Vikings in Minnesota.

Actually, if Jones doesn’t resume his winning ways against Washington, there is a real chance this team could miss the playoffs in exchange for Washington making it. That’s how bad it hurts to lose this Detroit game, since that was the kind of “winnable” game that had the Giants feasting on a 7-2 start.

Bears at Falcons: Cordarrelle Runs into the Record Book

Without Khalil Herbert available, Chicago’s historic rushing streak did come to an end with only 160 yards after a record five straight games of 230-plus yards on the ground.

But by losing 27-24 in Atlanta, the team did make some more history. The 2022 Bears are the first team in NFL history to lose four straight games when rushing for at least 160 yards. The Bears are also the fourth team in NFL history to lose at least four straight games when scoring at least 24 points. The 2011-12 Saints hold the record with a five-game losing streak.

It happened in what has become a familiar fashion this year. The Bears had another double-digit lead, but that was short-lived after Cordarrelle Patterson returned a kickoff 103 yards for a touchdown, his ninth, setting a new record and breaking a tie with Josh Cribbs and Leon Washington.

The Bears were down 24-17 to start the fourth quarter, but that left plenty of time for a time-consuming drive that took up over half the quarter to tie the game at 24 with David Montgomery’s touchdown run.

The Falcons had their own long drive on the ground with Patterson making the key conversion on a fourth down. That led to a 53-yard field goal by Younghoe Koo, and he did not disappoint this time with 1:47 left.

So once again, Fields was in the two-minute drill and only needed a field goal with nearly a full two minutes and three timeouts. Tons of time. But where most teams would throw the ball against a bad defense, the Bears started the drive with two designed runs. Fields gained 5 yards and took two big hits and looked injured.

On third-and-5, he was late and high on a short throw that was tipped and intercepted to effectively end the game. Now there are reports he had a shoulder injury after running 18 times for 85 yards in the game.

The Bears are 3-8 and heading nowhere with a quarterback who is now 1-8 at fourth-quarter comebacks and 2-8 at all game-winning drive opportunities. The second win was against Houston this year when Davis Mills threw a pick in a tied game and Fields just had to take two knees to set up a 30-yard field goal. Even he couldn’t screw that one up.

Fantasy nerds are eating this offense up because of the rushing points, but how is any of this sustainable when it isn’t winning games, Fields isn’t developing as a passer, he isn’t closing games out since he isn’t passing when they need to, and it doesn’t appear he can stay healthy on this rushing workload?

And nice trade for Chase Claypool. He has 32 yards in three games.

After this game, I’m out on the Chicago passing game the rest of the season.

Hurry-Up Finish

Busy week ahead, so here are the final four games.

Raiders at Broncos: The Most Predictable One-Score Game of Week 11

If you knew these teams this year, then you knew this would be another one-score, low-scoring game. Some great kicking helped things get to overtime tied at 16, but it could have ended in regulation if the Raiders scored a touchdown from the Denver 7.

But the Raiders won the coin toss, and Derek Carr only needed two throws to beat the Broncos with a 35-yard touchdown to Davante Adams. Nice route, but I have no idea what the coverage was trying to accomplish against one of the best receivers in the game.

Carr passed for over 300 yards in Denver for the fourth season in a row, picking up the win for the third straight year to complete a sweep of the embarrassing Broncos. For all the talk about firing Josh McDaniels during the season, this sweep just might be the final nail for Nathaniel Hackett in Denver. They can let this thing play out for 17 games, but he looks completely out of his element.

Panthers at Ravens: To Think They Were Favored by a Baker’s Dozen

I really liked Panthers +13, but a game that barely broke 13 total points? What the hell? This was the second game this season that was tied 3-3 after the third quarter. The Buccaneers-Saints also did it.

There were a few surprise interceptions from big men to keep the score down in this one. Lamar Jackson had one early and Baker Mayfield had one late. Jackson ended up squeezing a game-winning drive out of this one on a 37-yard field goal by Justin Tucker.

Two plays later, the Panthers fumbled on a reception and Jackson turned that short field into a touchdown run and 13-3 lead, which stood this time. No blown lead for Baltimore, and it did extend the streak to holding a double-digit lead in all 10 games this season.

But if this is how the Ravens are going to play at home after a bye with Mark Andrews back as a 13-point favorite against Carolina, then there are going to be some challenges ahead despite the appearance of the league’s easiest remaining schedule.

Commanders at Texans: Powerbomb in Houston

The only two things you need to know from this game are that Houston was outgained 246-5 in yards in the first half, and Dameon Pierce got powerbombed:

Rams at Saints: This Turkey Is Cooked

After losing Cooper Kupp (ankle) last week, the Rams lost Matthew Stafford during the game to the concussion protocol, and then were shredded by Andy Dalton in a 27-20 loss to the Saints to fall to 3-7.

The Rams might as well call it a year and rest Kupp and Stafford. Do not sacrifice their long-term health for a lost cause.

We get into the territory of deciding if the 2022 Rams are having the worst title defense in the Super Bowl era. The main competition would be the 1987 Giants, who started 0-5 during a strike season with replacement games and finished 6-9. The 1999 Broncos finished 6-10 but they also saw John Elway retire and Terrell Davis get hurt, so they get more of a pass with far lower expectations coming into the year than these Rams had. The 1982 49ers finished 3-6 in another strike season, so when it comes to non-strike seasons, the 2022 Rams may fit the bill for worst title defense of all time.

Next week: It’s Turkey Week and the first game (Bills-Lions) could actually be the best of the trio on Thursday. Could even be one of the best all week if the Lions play like they have been lately. Sunday’s schedule is so bad that Bengals-Titans is the only game between two teams with a winning record. We also get stuck watching the Packers in prime time again in Philadelphia. Which version of each team shows up? Who knows, but it’s no longer a marquee matchup in the NFC this season.