Tag: Ravens

NFL Week 16 Predictions: Super Bowl Preview (?) Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The NFL is gifting us with a rare non-conference matchup between No. 1 seeds to close Week 16. I had a feeling early this season that Ravens-49ers could be the Super Bowl rematch we actually get this year instead of Eagles-Chiefs or 49ers-Chiefs, but we’ll see how this goes Monday night as the 49ers just look unstoppable right now.

This Week’s Articles

Which Coaches Join Brandon Staley in Unemployment, and Who Would Be Logical Replacements for the 2024 Openings? – I looked at 8 possible head coaching vacancies, what the teams should look for in their next hire, and who that hire could be.

NFL Week 16 Predictions

I had the Rams prevailing on Thursday night, but for the second week in a row, they didn’t make a 3-score lead look super safe in the 4th quarter.

After last week in Indy, I just can’t bring myself to pick the Steelers anymore this season. We’ll see what happens and Cincinnati is a defense they have moved the ball well against lately, but the confidence at this team feels like an all-time low in the Mike Tomlin era.

I’ll be surprised if Bills don’t crush the Chargers.

I’m taking the Colts as a road underdog in Atlanta. I think Arthur Smith is in panic mode with the Taylor Heinicke start, and the Colts should have better weapons available this week.

I don’t trust the Green Bay defense, so I’m high on Bryce Young doing things he hasn’t done in over a month like throw a touchdown pass and maybe even 200 yards. Could be an upset watch but I’m hedging with the ATS/ML picks.

No real feel on Browns-Texans other than DeMeco Ryans shows his defense works and they make the Browns pay for these turnovers in a way their last two opponents didn’t.

Speaking of turnovers, I don’t trust Nick Mullens to play a clean game, and I like Detroit’s offense to power through for the division clinching win.

Already linked above to my upset pick of Washington against the Jets.

Gut pick is Tennessee rebounds from last week and beats the Seahawks at home after their emotional comeback win on Monday night against Philly. I just like Vrabel as a home underdog and if Ryan Tannehill has to start for Will Levis, that reinforces my pick.

I actually had 300 words written on Thursday night for why the Jaguars are going to end their losing skid against the Bucs, then I read that Trevor Lawrence is trending to not playing and I just removed it from the picks. But now it sounds like he’s only questionable, so he probably should play. Just my gut says Jags win to end the slide as home-field hasn’t been beneficial to either of these teams this year, and turnover regression might sting the Bucs.

No real opinion on Cardinals-Bears either way. Two lousy teams and Cardinals might just tank for draft reasons.

Someone should get a big win in Cowboys-Dolphins. While I like Dallas doing much more on offense this week, I’ll go with that Miami offense dropping a big number at home and getting the win. I’d pick Dallas if the game was in Dallas.

Spread keeps going up on SNF and I can’t trust Russell Wilson to win a game comfortably in prime time. I don’t even want to watch this one.

On Monday, I think the Super Bowl teams from last year cover with no problem at home against rookie quarterbacks. As for the big game, I think the 49ers are playing incredibly well, have no real flaws, and the Ravens are down some important weapons like Mark Andrews (reliable target, red zone target) and Keaton Mitchell (explosive plays). The 49ers have too many weapons to choose from, and the defense is still great and can make Lamar Jackson struggle in this one. I hope it’s a great game, but I have my doubts about that. I think the 49ers can win a 27-16 type of game.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 15

~ Scott ~ 6 Comments

Just another strange week in the NFL in the 2023 season. It started with the end of the Brandon Staley era in Los Angeles after the Raiders scored 63 points. One of the best halves of the year was played between Nick Mullens and Jake Browning in Cincinnati. There were multiple eventful Hail Mary attempts in Cleveland. The game of the week was a 21-point blowout.

All that just to tell us the 49ers are the best team in the league, and we’ll see if the Ravens have anything to say about that next week. But that’s next week.

This week is still going with MNF to come, but we have only had 4 games with a comeback opportunity. That would tie the lowest mark in the 13 seasons I’ve been doing this weekly, and it would be the lowest in a week where all 32 teams played. We had four teams win a game after trailing by double digits, which is a high number, but just not much drama late in games.

I would be shocked if Monday night did not get this week up to 5 opportunities given it’s Pete Carroll’s Seahawks on a Monday night, the 2023 Eagles are going to be there, and maybe a Flu Game for Jalen Hurts (questionable with illness).

I’m not going to cover the Saturday tripleheader below, because I think it was pretty self-explanatory. The games got progressively more one-sided as the day went on with Detroit blowing the doors off the Broncos, making them look like the team that started 1-5 and gave up 70 points in Miami. See what happens when Detroit protects the ball and the Broncos aren’t feasting on turnovers?

The Steelers blew a 13-point lead (5th time under Mike Tomlin) and still went on to lose by 13-plus points for only the second time in franchise history. Tomlin’s decision to punt, down 11 points, with one of the best kickers in the league was another low point for him.

The sloppy first half of Vikings-Bengals actually paved the way for one of the best finishes of the season in overtime. Jake Browning now has as many 7-point comeback wins in the fourth quarter as Joe Burrow in his career (2). Nick Mullens threw arguably the funniest interception of the season, but it was also the 6th game this season where both quarterbacks passed for over 300 yards and multiple touchdown passes:

Tee Higgins had one of the best plays of the year, showing the awareness at the goal line and why he would be a No. 1 wideout on most teams. But that whole half was a good example of what can happen when quarterbacks, even backups like Mullens and Browning, give their great receiving talent chances to make plays.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Cowboys at Bills: Familiar Tune for Dallas, New Hit for Buffalo

I need to stop putting high expectations on these big matchups this year. If Mike McCarthy didn’t put his starters back in facing a 31-3 deficit, this might have ended with the Cowboys failing to score a touchdown and neither starting quarterback passing for 100 yards. Yeah, there was rain, but this game was pain.

There are certainly more important things than the MVP award, but I think Dak Prescott just threw it away this year after doing the only thing he couldn’t do: have a total dud performance. Prescott threw for 43 yards in the first half and never looked comfortable, running into a sack on an early third down. The Cowboys have some explaining to do in how the offense can look so unstoppable at home and pedestrian on the road. Only a low-pressure drive, down 31-3, got the offense into the end zone with the game out of reach.

Throw in some early 15-yard roughing penalties on the Cowboys, and this was quickly a 14-0 game when it could have only been 3-0 and maybe the offense could have figured things out. But the Cowboys took themselves out of this one early and never recovered, and that’s been a theme in their big losses under McCarthy. That’s why this team going on the road in the playoffs every round is a big problem.

As for Buffalo, we have gotten so used to the Bills putting the ball in Josh Allen’s hands in big games since 2020 to the point where they don’t even try to run the ball with their running backs. If there is any clear difference in the offense since Ken Dorsey was fired as the offensive coordinator, it would be the impact of running back James Cook.

He had the best game of his career Sunday, making this the least Josh Allen game ever as the quarterback only threw for 94 yards on 15 passes. He even finished with just 8 runs for 24 yards and another touchdown run. But this was the Cook show with 25 carries for 179 yards, a touchdown on the ground, and 42 receiving yards and a great touchdown grab.

Cook did anything he wanted to this defense in the rain, which was a good strategy for sure. But it was still surprising to see Allen throw just 15 passes, or for Dalton Kincaid to have multiple drops at tight end. This was the least the passing game had to do for Buffalo in a game in years.

I’m not sold this is going to be the strategy for Buffalo moving forward, but it did lead to 28 first downs and 31 points against a solid defense. Those early penalties did help extend drives that otherwise end with a field goal attempt and punt, but the Bills moved the ball well and only had 6 possessions with Allen before calling off the dogs in the fourth quarter.

It was just nice to see Buffalo try something different in a big game and make it work. It was disheartening to see Dallas falter in familiar fashion. I flirted in the summer with this being my Super Bowl matchup, but if I had to pick one of these teams to go the distance right now, I’m going with Buffalo, which is still only the No. 9 seed as things currently stand.

But Buffalo will be one of the most “team you don’t want to face in January” teams in years. The Cowboys could lose to Baker Mayfield in the wild card round at this point if this is how they are going to continue playing in big road games.

Ravens at Jaguars: Not a Top Tier Team in Jacksonville

Sunday night could have been a really good game, but Jacksonville’s shortcomings and the way the Ravens control games this year made for a dud of a finish. Once the Ravens scored a touchdown to start the fourth quarter and take a 17-7 lead, the life was sucked out of this one with Jacksonville’s 3-and-out. The Ravens added a field goal, Trevor Lawrence was strip-sacked, the Ravens added another field goal (23-7), and Jacksonville eventually turned it over on downs in the red zone with 3:19 left.

But what a crazy first half. The Jaguars repeatedly moved the ball into scoring territory, but they missed a pair of long field goals, Lawrence flat out fumbled the ball in the open field on a scramble, and he botched the end of the half by not spiking the ball and throwing a pass in bounds inside the 5-yard line to see the clock expire with the Jaguars out of timeouts. Major mistake.

But a game like this does continue to show the flaws in Jacksonville’s roster, especially with Chrisitan Kirk out injured. The Jaguars only scored 9 points against the Chiefs, 3 points against the 49ers, and now 7 points against the Ravens – three Super Bowl contenders that they got to host at home this year and lost to.

Lawrence’s accuracy is too inconsistent, Calvin Ridley (39 yards on 12 targets) hasn’t been the No. 1 stud we thought he could be, and the running game with Travis Etienne just hasn’t been there most of the year.

As for the Ravens, they are just a lot to deal with given Lamar Jackson’s unique skills. He only passed for 171 yards in this game, but he made some key extended plays, and he ran for 97 yards on the way to the team rushing for 251 yards.

The Jaguars are in real danger of losing the AFC South title now that the Colts and Texans are all 8-6. But it feels like this team is going to be limited in playoff success this year regardless of where it finishes in the regular season.

With Baltimore, we’ll see the ultimate test when they travel to San Francisco next Monday night.

Chiefs at Patriots: They Still Haven’t Cut Toney?

As far as Kansas City games go in 2023, this 27-17 win in New England was tame. But they may have been in trouble if they were playing a better team than the Patriots, who were 2-of-12 on third down.

The Chiefs lost another turnover battle (2-1) thanks to a couple of interceptions thrown by Patrick Mahomes on passes that went to his receivers first before they were taken away. The egregious one was yet another play by Kadarius Toney that looked just like his Week 1 drop-to-pick against the Lions. At least this one didn’t get returned for a touchdown, but it did set up the Patriots on a short field for their last touchdown drive to make the game 27-17. Toney just has to go. It is ridiculous to keep putting him on the field when his 4 targets resulted in 5 yards and that turnover.

Travis Kelce was held to 28 yards, but this was a big game for CEH, who had to carry the load with Isiah Pacheco out again. His 20-yard run was the only rushing play of note for the Chiefs, but CEH had a strong receiving game with 64 yards and a very nice touchdown grab.

We’ll see how the Chiefs fare at home against the Raiders next week after Vegas scored 63 points on the Chargers largely by feasting on turnovers. The Chiefs were dying to cough up the obligatory fumble in this game, so they better start protecting that ball better because you’re not going to play the likes of Bailey Zappe and Aidan O’Connell in the playoffs.

Texans at Titans: Luv Ya Blue (No Tie)

It sure did not look like the Texans showed up to play after allowing a big opening touchdown drive by rookie Will Levis, and then Case Keenum threw a pick-six on a play that looked like a new quarterback out of sync with his players. The Texans trailed 13-0 at that point while the Oilers Titans were thriving in their Houston throwback uniforms, which apparently ticked off some of the natives in Texas this week.

But Keenum settled down and the Texans basically beat the Titans at their own game. Devin Singletary rushed for 121 yards while Derrick Henry, the Houston Killer, was held to 9 yards on 16 carries. Levis was pummeled and sacked 7 times.

Keenum got away with one of the dumbest, most dangerous passes of the season that Dalton Schultz somehow turned into a catch, and the Texans forced the game with a touchdown to Noah Brown, who stepped up with Nico Collins out.

After 7 straight scoreless drives and the game getting late into overtime, it really looked like a tie was inevitable, something this 2023 season has avoided so far. When Singletary’s 34-yard touchdown run was wiped away for holding, it really felt like we were going to get a god damn tie.

But much love to returning kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn for making a 54-yard field goal to give the Texans a 19-16 win and avoid that tie. We now have a 3-way tie at 8-6 in the AFC South. That’s the only kind of tie I want to see in the NFL.

49ers at Cardinals: Is San Francisco Inevitable?

It was only Arizona, but San Francisco’s 45-29 win to complete the sweep and clinch the NFC West was the team’s 6th-straight win by at least 12 points, something that’s only been done 23 times now.

In the salary cap era, only the 1996 Packers, 1999 Rams (twice), 2005 Colts, 2007 Patriots, and 2009 Saints have had a streak this long before these 49ers. Those are historic teams with three of them winning the Super Bowl.

Brock Purdy threw 4 more touchdown passes and has taken a considerable lead over Dak Prescott in QBR while adding to his other league-leading efficiency stats. He is the MVP favorite now with roughly -150 odds after Dak Prescott’s dud in Buffalo. Deebo Samuel scored another pair of touchdowns and Christian McCaffrey put in 3 more. Both were left completely wide open on one of their touchdowns, which is crazy to think could happen.

Even in a game where Arizona piled up 234 rushing yards, it never really felt like the Cardinals had much of a chance. In fact, the Cardinals are the first home team in NFL history to score at least 29 points and rush for at least 200 yards and lose by more than 14 points.

The 49ers have really been the NFL’s best team since Purdy took over at quarterback, and injuries have been the main thing to hold them back in their losses in that time. We’ll see how they look next Monday night at home against the top-seeded Ravens. But if it’s anything like the streak the 49ers have been on, the Super Bowl odds are about to get even better for this juggernaut.

In a league lacking in consistency, the inevitably of the 49ers is impressive.

Bears at Browns: Hail Flacco

This felt like one of those fluky Chicago games from one of their playoff seasons where they get a tipped ball for a pick-6 after an earlier pick set them up for a 1-yard touchdown drive.

Basically, this game was a good example of why the Cleveland defense does not have a better ranking in points allowed, because the Chicago offense barely contributed more than 3 points to this score. Joe Flacco got a little loose with the ball in his third start for the team and was intercepted 3 times.

But against a tough run defense like Chicago that held the Browns to 17 carries for 30 yards, you need a quarterback to hang in there and pass on them. Flacco can still do that as he put the ball up 44 more times in this one for 374 yards.

Flacco passed for 212 yards in the fourth quarter alone as the Browns have a formidable offense with Amari Cooper and tight end David Njoku. But the Bears are also one of the great fourth-quarter collapse teams in the league, and you could feel that 17-7 lead wasn’t going to hold up for Matt Eberflus. Hell, the first play of the quarter was Justin Fields taking a sack on a 4th-and-1.

Flacco eventually led the team back with a 51-yard touchdown threaded in there to Cooper, who did the rest after the catch. The defense forced a quick 3-and-out, and Flacco found Njoku for gains of 31 and 34 yards to set up a go-ahead field goal with 32 seconds left.

That is barely enough time for Chicago to get into range, but kicking was probably going to be difficult on this day. Eventually, they settled for the Hail Mary finish after already getting a crack at it to end the first half with Fields’ pass intercepted in the end zone.

This one was quite the adventure with Darnell Mooney having a real shot at it on the ground, but the ball left his hands, and he kicked it to a defender for another interception in one of the wildest finishes we’ve seen this year.

This is the kind of ending we are used to seeing go against Cleveland, but not this year. At 9-5, the Browns have clinched a second winning season under Kevin Stefanski, and they are in position for the No. 5 seed. That might be Coach of the Year material for the 2020 winner of the award.

Buccaneers at Packers: Refreshing to See Some Great QB Play in Tampa…

There was a time when a Florida team winning at Lambeau Field in December would have been a huge headline, but it was only 42 degrees, and the Packers haven’t had the best week after losing to Tommy DeVito and the Giants on Monday night.

This was also the third year in a row that Baker Mayfield played in Lambeau in December, and with his third different team, he was not walking away a loser again. In fact, he had arguably the best game of his career with 381 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a perfect 158.3 passer rating. He did take 5 sacks and lose a fumble as the pass rush was on him early, but the passes Baker got off, he was slicing and dicing the Packers down the seams.

Every time the Packers pulled within a score in the second half, Baker had an answer. His 52-yard touchdown pass to ice it to David Moore almost ended in disaster with the receiver foolishly releasing the ball close to the goal line. But the touchdown stood and Green Bay trailed 34-20.

It was the sixth time this season the Buccaneers (7-7) scored at least 20 offensive points on the road. They didn’t do it even once in 2022.

Falcons at Panthers: We Might Need to Get Arthur Smith Up Out of There

I kind of love this stat: Carolina is 2-12 but has yet to run a single play with a fourth-quarter lead this season. Both wins have come on field goals on the final snap of the game. They did it to Houston in Week 8 and now again to the Falcons for the second year in the rain in a 9-7 barnburner.

I knew this game was trouble when the weather reports came out, so I largely avoided any bets on it. You just can’t trust the Falcons, but they probably should have won this one.

Atlanta, leading 7-3, was running a give-up play to Bijan Robinson on a 3rd-and-10, and he ended up fumbling, giving the Panthers the ball at the Atlanta 21 as the game was moving to the fourth quarter. The Panthers stalled but were right to kick the field goal to make it 7-6. You just can’t trust the Bryce Young-led offense to convert a 4th-and-4 from the 7, keeping it a 7-6 game would likely keep Atlanta in conservative mode instead of playing from behind, and you can just win on a field goal. Oh yeah, it’s also the Falcons, the NFC’s version of the Chargers.

The defense wasn’t holding up its end of the bargain with Atlanta driving into the red zone, but that’s when Desmond Ridder threw a pass that his season, if not his time in Atlanta, may be remembered best for:

https://twitter.com/tankathon/status/1736487658442916294/video/1

What the hell was that? Point shaving? Anything even remotely conservative should lead to a field goal and 10-6 lead with under half a quarter left, making the Panthers think touchdown or bust. Just an atrocious decision that could cost this team the playoffs.

Young still had to drive his offense from the 5 in the rain, but he only needed to set up a short field goal for a win. He got the job done with one of his only good drives all season, moving the ball 90 yards on 17 plays, mostly through his arm. The Falcons burned all their timeouts and still couldn’t stop Chuba Hubbard on a 3rd-and-3 run, allowing for the 23-yard field goal by Eddie Pineiro to be the final snap of regulation.

He made the kick and for the second time this season, the Panthers earned a win on the last play. It was the first time since October 21, 2018 that the Panthers won a game after trailing by more than 1 point in the fourth quarter.

Of course, it had to be at the expense of the Falcons.

Giants at Saints: [Insert Somehow Still Acceptable Derogatory Reference About Italians]

I think Tommy DeVito needs about 2 more wins before his agent can get Adrien Brody to play him in a movie. But it’s not going to happen like this. The Giants scored two field goals in New Orleans, including one from 56 yards away that saw the kicker get injured in the process. DeVito also had to leave the game temporarily for a concussion check, but he returned to end up in more pain as he took 7 sacks.

I said it was a miracle that the Packers did not sack him once on Monday night, because his sack rate is abysmal and should be over 20% again. Saquon Barkley also had his worst game in a while with 14 yards on 9 carries as the Saints just dominated up front. Meanwhile, Derek Carr was kept clean and finished 23-of-28 for 218 yards and 3 touchdowns, somehow playing his best game without the services of Chris Olave.

In all, a pretty bland 24-6 win. No spicy meatballs for the Paisan.

Commanders at Rams: Is There a Coaching Staff in Washington?

We know Jack Del Rio’s dusty ass was fired during the season, but is there even a coaching staff left in Washington? People really want Eric Bieniemy to be a head coach, and sure, it’s tough to not want a coordinator who sees his offense go into halftime scoreless.

But then I had to love how Cooper Kupp was left wide open on a 62-yard touchdown to start the second half. Gotta love when a defensive back is peeking 20+ yards into the backfield as if keeping an eye on Matthew Stafford from that distance while Kupp blows past you is going to do anything.

Then the Commanders, down 28-7, seemed to pull the plug a little early on Sam Howell with 9:05 left, but maybe it was because of the pick he threw on his last play. But Jacoby Brissett entered the game and this almost turned into some 2005 Mark Brunell to Santana Moss kind of batshit craziness. Terry McLaurin caught a 29-yard touchdown, then it looked like he had a score from 49 yards out with 4:47 left, but he was down at the 1.

Remember when Andy Reid was known for horrible clock management? Bieniemy must have made him proud as it took 3 minutes and 1 second over 9 snaps for the Commanders to finally score the touchdown to make it a one-possession game:

I can’t believe that sequence was real life. This could have very well been a game with a realistic 21-point comeback there if they got that score much quicker. Then Ron Rivera must not have watched the Titans on Monday night, because he botched not going for 2 here. The extra point was blocked, fittingly, and it was still 28-20 anyway with 1:46 left.

The Commanders did have all of their timeouts, but maybe they would have gotten the ball back if they didn’t take an eternity to score from the 1. This is another team that needs major housecleaning in the offseason.

Jets at Dolphins: Just End the Season

Seriously, we’ve seen enough of the 2023 Jets. They have been eliminated from the playoffs after losing 30-0 to a Miami team that didn’t have Tyreek Hill. The Jets had 80 net passing yards on 43 pass plays due to sacks. Maybe that will end this silly talk of Aaron Rodgers returning from a torn Achilles, because why would anyone even want to play behind this line? They still can’t run block either, finishing with 12 carries for 23 yards.

The Jets join the 2018 Redskins (lost 24-0 vs. Eagles) and 1999 Browns (lost 43-0 vs. Steelers) as the only teams since 1990 to not pass for more than 80 net yards and not rush for more than 25 yards in the same game.

Next week: Seven island games in one week? The NFL really wants to take over our Christmas with TNF, a Saturday doubleheader, a normal Sunday lineup, and a Monday tripleheader. Not many games are appealing either, but TNF is actually legit with seeing how Derek Carr will fare in a pseudo playoff game against the Rams. There’s also the crazy possibility of Mike Tomlin’s final home game if things go off the rails here the rest of the way. Maybe Dallas will fare better in Miami’s weather, but yikes, talk about two teams who don’t beat the good teams this year, especially on the road. The highlight of the week is clearly the finale on MNF with Ravens-49ers, a possible battle of No. 1 seeds, a possible Super Bowl preview for Christmas.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 14

~ Scott ~ 7 Comments

Week 14 in the NFL was a lot to take in. Or a little if you were caught watching either of the two games that were scoreless at halftime. Seriously, we go 4 years without a scoreless first half and get two in one afternoon? That second one almost went the distance to 0-0 in regulation but thank God for Nick Mullens (said no one ever).

The Cowboys blew out the Eagles, who lost back-to-back games against their main NFC contenders by 20 points. Sounds pretty 2022 Vikings to me.

The Bills won another game in Kansas City after an egregious offside penalty on the offense wiped out one of the coolest, game-winning type of plays you’ll ever see. But that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a dumb penalty, Kansas City.

Did offense feel worse than usual this weekend? We still have a MNF doubleheader that does not look good, but there has yet to be a quarterback to post a 75.0 QBR this week. Most weeks have multiple players in the 80s and 90s. The highest was Matthew Stafford (73.4) in a loss in Baltimore. This is so unusual that it hasn’t happened in any week of the regular season since 2006, the first season we have QBR data for. Maybe Tua or Jordan Love puts an end to that tonight, but Monday night shenanigans, the MetLife playing surface, eh, we’ll see.

There were 7 games with a comeback opportunity this week, though for the second time this season, no team came back to win from 10 points down. The Steelers and Chiefs almost did that, but again, we’re seeing arguably the darkest patches of the Mike Tomlin and Andy Reid eras in Pittsburgh and Kansas City. Losing back-to-back home games to 2-10 teams is brutal (and historic), and the Chiefs are on a 2-4 slide and just lost wire-to-wire in back-to-back games for the first time with Mahomes at quarterback.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Chiefs: Toney, Toney, You Gotta Go

Another week, another Kansas City loss where the Chiefs gave up two early touchdowns, lost the turnover battle, a receiver royally screwed up a lead-changing play, and Patrick Mahomes’ last gasp on 4th-and-long fell incomplete.

Then there’s the latest officiating controversy.

But I don’t think it was that controversial. The irony of it was Kadarius Toney scored the touchdown and it would have been his most memorable play had the schmuck not lined up offsides.

Offensive offsides, who even does that? But before that ending, it was another game where the Chiefs played disappointing, mistake-filled football. They let the Bills dominate early with passes to their running back (James Cook) while Mahomes seemingly can’t throw a screen to CEH without disaster happening like an opening-drive interception in Buffalo territory.

Rashee Rice provided the obligatory fumble late in the third quarter when the Chiefs were driving in a 17-14 game. They did tie the game in the fourth quarter, but a quick 3-and-out with a chance to take the lead wasn’t good, then Josh Allen continued to show why he’s been so successful in Arrowhead with a go-ahead drive for a field goal.

The only problem with that was a total mismanagement of the clock, and you would think Buffalo more than any team would be observant of the clock against the Chiefs. They are 13 seconds away from going 4-0 in this building since 2021. The Bills had a chance to set up the field goal as the final play, but Allen threw 3 low-percentage balls to receivers that all fell incomplete and stopped the clock with the Chiefs keeping 2 timeouts. It made no sense. Even the last throw before the 2-minute warning was barely caught for a 1 yard to run clock.

So, Mahomes had a full 1:54 in a 20-17 game, which is an eternity for him to get a go-ahead touchdown, let alone a field goal. But four plays into a good looking drive, it happened. Mahomes found Travis Kelce over the middle and he somehow had the stones to lateral the ball across the field to Toney, who went the final 24 yards for what should have been a huge go-ahead touchdown and possibly the game-winning score to end Buffalo’s season.

It will go down as an all-time great play that never counted. It was aesthetically pleasing, in a big moment, risky as hell, and a huge reward. But it’s all for naught cause the biggest clown on the roster was lined up offsides.

Is that going to be called 100% of the time on the offense? No, I don’t think so. Is it ever called on the offense? Apparently 11 times this year, so less than once a week. I understand the argument that it was inconsequential to the play, but I also think the strong reaction from the Chiefs, namely Mahomes and Andy Reid, is way overblown. Just don’t line up offsides and it’s not a penalty. How hard is that? Does a veteran really need a warning for this late in the fourth quarter? I could see if he was repeatedly doing it in the game, then the officials should inform him of that. But there’s just no excuse to line up in the wrong spot on a play where the clock wasn’t even running.

Like the other Kansas City drives this year, they fell apart after the big play was not made. Think of the Toney drop against Detroit that could have easily set up a game-winning field goal, the MVS dropped touchdown against the Eagles, the no-call for DPI on MVS against the Packers last week, and now this offsides wiping out a touchdown.

It’s like the Chiefs get so frustrated from these plays that they forget to finish the drive. Namely, the offensive line forgets as the protection turning to dog shit has a lot to do with these drives fizzing out a couple plays later. Mahomes had to throw away passes under pressure, and just like that, it was 4th-and-15. Here we go again.

Mahomes’ arm was hit just as he threw the ball and it came out funny with no chance of ever being caught. Another game over after Mahomes threw incomplete on a 4th-and-10+. That’s happened in all 5 losses this year. It happened in exactly one Kansas City game in 2018-22 and that was Super Bowl 55 with a lopsided score.

The Chiefs are 8-5 and barely hanging onto the No. 3 seed right now. It is looking likely that they will have to play a road playoff game this year. I guess it is possible for the Chiefs to win out (12-5), then hope Miami loses multiple games to Cowboys/Ravens/Bills to finish with a No. 2 seed or better. Then they’d have to hope No. 1 (Baltimore) chokes in the divisional round, which isn’t impossible of course. But it’s not looking good. At this point, the Chiefs might get shut down by New England and lose to Bailey Zappe next week. Jake Browning with the Bengals is a possibility too.

Mahomes’ strong reaction to the ending was weird to me. It almost felt like he was letting out years of frustration with calls like this, maybe even going back to the Dee Ford offsides in the 2018 AFC Championship Game loss, another rare offsides call that had nothing to do with the play at hand. Hard to think of any team in between 2018-23 with bigger offsides penalties than the Chiefs with these two. Then with the way last week’s game ended in Green Bay, it’s just been a frustrating season for Kansas City and I think he chose to take it out on the refs instead of strangling Toney, who really needs to be cut. He provides no value and has almost single-handedly cost them games against the Lions and Bills this year.

But not knocking out the Bills (7-6) when you had a chance could prove fatal. Imagine if this propels Buffalo to make the playoffs and this ends up being a 7/2 or 6/3 wild card matchup. That would not be good for the Chiefs, who struggle with Buffalo as much as any opponent.

But we’ll see how things go from here and if Buffalo can build from this with a tough remaining schedule. The Chiefs only have 4 games left to improve, but it feels like both sides of the ball are declining right now.

Trading away Tyreek Hill and trading for Kadarius Toney is epic team mismanagement. That’s almost as bad as getting Trent Richardson for Andrew Luck in Indy when he literally needed any other good player besides a running back.

This is the first time since 2017 where the Chiefs failed to have a lead in back-to-back games. Those were the ugly losses to the Giants (12-9 in overtime) and Buffalo (16-10). Do you know what that slide led to? Andy Reid gave up play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, who is the OC now in 2023.

Might need a new plan here, because this isn’t working. I made this prediction before Week 7 when the Chiefs were 5-1, and it was tongue-in-cheek at the time. But my goodness, this is where the Chiefs are seemingly every week now. A game-winning play is botched, the offensive line falls apart, and there’s Mahomes throwing a miracle ball on 4th-and-long to end the game.

This is who Kansas City is in 2023 and I don’t see it changing this time. And that is why the frustration is boiling over on the field now.

Eagles at Cowboys: Another NFC Stomping

The big NFC round robin is complete now, and the 49ers come out looking like the best team after stomping the Cowboys (42-10) and Eagles (42-19) this year. The Cowboys and Eagles split their matchups with Philadelphia winning 28-23 at home and then Dallas returning the favor with this 20-point win.

So, only 1-of-4 games ended up being a competitive 60-minute game. But this is what I was saying about the Eagles the last few weeks. They rely on winning close games this year while the 49ers and Eagles blow teams out. They are your classic “win big, lose close” teams, and they just blew the Eagles out by 20 points in back-to-back weeks.

The crazy thing with this game is that the Eagles never even scored a touchdown on offense. Their only touchdown was Jalen Carter returning a fumble of Dak Prescott 42 yards for a score in the third quarter, the last time this looked like it might be a game.

Prescott said as much after the game that he didn’t have his best night, and he certainly didn’t. The Cowboys left plenty of points on the field, and we did at least see how awesome their new kicker is as Brandon Aubrey improved to 30-for-30 on the season at field goals with makes from 60, 59, 50, and 45 yards, making it look easy in the process. Yes, this has “misses first time all year in a crucial playoff moment” written all over it, but he was money in this game, becoming the first kicker to make from 59 and 60 in the same game.

But Prescott did not hurt his MVP case. In fact, he’s the outright leader now after he threw for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns, notching a 12th-striaght home game with at least 27 points scored (third-longest streak in NFL history).

Dallas was in control and moving the ball well from the opening drive. The Eagles were too sloppy with the ball. Jalen Hurts, who didn’t even pass for 200 yards again, lost a fumble on his team’s opening drive. A.J. Brown had a nice game, but he also fumbled on the team’s opening drive of the second half at midfield, down 24-6.

Down 27-13 late in the third quarter, Hurts threw for 3 yards on 3rd-and-11, then a 1-yard completion to DeVonta Smith on 4th-and-8. Those are failed completions. Finally, any chance of an improbable 17-point comeback was snuffed out when Smith fumbled a completion in the red zone with 6:38 left. Game over. The Eagles’ top 3 skill players all lost fumbles in this one.

But as I said last week, the 49ers and Cowboys could have beat the Eagles by 50 points each in these games, and there’s still a good chance Philadelphia gets the No. 1 seed, the bye week, and gets to host the rematch with these teams, who are now all 10-3. The Eagles don’t play any good teams the rest of the way. The Cowboys have to go to Buffalo and Miami the next two weeks, tough road games against contenders. The 49ers have to host the Ravens on Christmas, a tough game.

But we can save talk about future games for down the road. It’s just an eyesore on Dallas’ resume to lose that game to Arizona as a 13-point favorite, because that could be the one that costs them a No. 1 seed. Strong performance here by the Cowboys, and maybe the back-to-back beatings puts some doubt in the Philadelphia locker room.

But chances are the Cowboys (and 49ers) will have to do it again to Philly in January.

Rams at Ravens: Unexpected Hero in Unexpected Overtime Classic

Lamar Jackson is now 19-1 against the NFC in his career, but this may have been the toughest win to earn yet. I really did not see this coming as the Rams were a 7.5-point road underdog, and we’ve seen the Ravens destroy some NFC teams at home this year like the Lions (38-6) and Seahawks (37-3). My thought on Lamar against the NFC is that those teams just aren’t familiar with playing him yet and it takes some experience as he is such a unique talent.

But the Rams scored on 4-of-5 drives to start the game, had no turnovers on the road, and Matthew Stafford showed up for this one. Both quarterbacks had 3 touchdown passes and Stafford was only 6 yards away from matching Lamar with a 300-yard passing game. Jackson also rushed for 70 yards.

It was a tight, enjoyable back-and-forth game with plenty of points – exactly the kind of experience we almost never get in 2023. The Rams took a lead on a safety at one point when a bad snap was kicked out of bounds by Jackson to avoid a touchdown going on the board. But the defense made a stop, and Jackson put Justin Tucker in range for a 33-yard field goal to regain the lead with 11:17 to play in a 23-22 game.

A couple drives later, Stafford threw a touchdown, but the Rams failed on the 2-point conversion, leading 28-23 with 4:41 left. Not many comeback drives in situations like this in Lamar’s career, but he pulled this one off just when it looked like things were falling apart at the end with a 3rd-and-17. Zay Flowers was left open for a 21-yard touchdown with 1:16 left, and the Ravens made the crucial 2-point conversion this time to take a 31-28 lead.

Stafford has plenty of experience doing this, and a big play to Cooper Kupp moved the ball to the Baltimore 22. But the Rams were not able to get any more than 4 yards from there, so they settled for a game-tying field goal and overtime.

The Ravens went 3-and-out in overtime, which we don’t penalize enough for the team that goes first on offense, because now all the Rams had to do was get a field goal to win. But the Rams also went 3-and-out, and Sean McVay let an inexcusable delay of game penalty happen on the drive to make it 3rd-and-9. You get timeouts in overtime; you should use them there to avoid that mess.

The Rams punted, and while you usually don’t expect much on these plays anymore, the Ravens made them pay with Tylan Wallace returning the punt 76 yards for a touchdown. It almost had a Steve Young vs. Vikings quality to it with Wallace stumbling after 3 broken tackles, but he housed it for only the 4th game-winning punt return touchdown in overtime history:

And that is the shocking way the Ravens moved to 10-3 and the Rams dropped to 6-7. A much better game than you could have expected from this one. This is the second non-offensive game-winning score of the year. The first was T.J. Watt’s fumble return touchdown from Deshaun Watson in Week 2 in Browns-Steelers.

Vikings at Raiders: Almost 0-0

I thought 6-0 last week in New England in decent weather was bad, but 3-0 indoors in Vegas?

At some point, I stopped being mad at the lack of scoring and was rooting for history to be made with a scoreless overtime tie, which has never happened in NFL history. It may have happened without a quarterback change by the Vikings, which led to the game-winning drive as Nick Mullens finally strung together some completions after Joshua Dobbs could not.

We were really close on this one:

  • The last scoreless tie in the NFL was in 1943 between the Giants and Lions before overtime existed.
  • Vikings-Raiders is only the 11th game since 1940 with no more than 3 combined points.
  • It is the NFL’s first 3-0 game since the 2007 Steelers beat Miami in the game where the punt stuck in the ground. Pittsburgh’s score came with 17 seconds left, so this game was the longest an NFL game had gone scoreless since this one in 2007.
  • Almost 30 years to the date, the Jets and Redskins played a 3-0 game on 12/11/1993 with the Jets scoring in the first quarter. That makes Vikings-Raiders and Dolphins-Steelers the only games with fewer than 6 combined points in the salary cap era.

So, we didn’t get the record, but we can say this is the 2nd-longest game to last scoreless since 1978.

Given the shitshow the Vikings put on against the Bears their last timeout, Kevin O’Connell has to explain why things are broken right now, and Dobbs may be out of the starting lineup next week now that a division title is within reach.

Justin Jefferson returned from his hamstring injury in this game, but he unfortunately didn’t last long after taking a nasty shot to the back. But the Vikings still have weapons. Certainly enough to do better than 9 punts on 11 possessions. The game only had 1 missed field goal (by Minnesota) and the Raiders turned it over 3 times in the second half, including a big fumble in the red zone by Hunter Renfrow, and Aidan O’Connell was immediately intercepted after Greg Joseph’s 36-yard field goal provided the only points at the 2-minute warning.

I’m not sure Mullens is the answer going forward, but it doesn’t look like Dobbs is. I’m also not sure you can hire an interim coach who loses a home game indoors 3-0 like Antonio Pierce just did.

And oh joy, both teams will be in island games this week with the Raiders playing the Chargers on Thursday night and the Vikings on Saturday against the Bengals.

Seahawks at 49ers: Drew Locked Up Some Millions

Not much was expected from this game with Drew Lock starting for an injured Geno Smith. The spread moved above 14 points, but I did like Seattle to cover that as divisional rematches can be weird.

This one was a little weird as Lock played a competent game and the Seahawks were within striking distance. But the 49ers averaged 9.9 yards per play on their way to 527 yards as the studs were not being stopped on this day. Christian McCaffrey kicked it off with a 72-yard run on the first snap, though he was taken out for a breather and never scored a touchdown despite having odds in the -350 range to do so this week. Ouch.

Deebo Samuel had another huge game with 149 yards and a touchdown. Brandon Aiyuk (126 yards) was also over 100 yards, and George Kittle caught a 44-yard touchdown, because of course he did. Where was that on Thanksgiving when I needed 40 yards from him to win $2,500?

But anyways, it was the Kittle touchdown two snaps into the final quarter that shifted everything as Seattle was only down 21-16 before that score. Lock was then intercepted twice, and the 49ers ran out the clock for another win that all but wraps up this NFC West race.

But Lock probably made himself a few million in the process as a competent start against what looks like the best team in the league could keep him around for years to come in a league starved for quarterbacks.

Yet it is Mr. Irrelevant who continues to break football minds as he had another big game with 368 yards on just 27 attempts. It wasn’t the big YAC plays this week like last week in Philadelphia too as Purdy dropped some balls right in the basket in big moments. He’s legitimately very good in running this offense, and while a lot of quarterbacks may be in his shoes, you look around at the 0-0 scores on Sunday and the other offenses that struggled to find the end zone at all like the Eagles, and you have to say Purdy is a remarkable story.

Lions at Bears: No 12-Point Comeback This Time

I think you have to be worried if you’re a Detroit fan that this thing is about to spiral out of control. No, they still haven’t lost back-to-back games yet this year, but losing out and losing the division title to Minnesota is now a real possibility.

The Lions needed the miracle comeback of the season to erase a 12-point deficit against the Bears at home just a few weeks ago. This performance was even worse in Chicago as the Bears did what they did on offense again, but the Lions had no strong finish this time. In fact, things only got worse with the Lions going scoreless on their 7 possessions in the second half, including a fumble, two failed 4th downs, and an interception on their last 4 drives.

It was an aborted snap by Detroit late in the third quarter that led to a short field for the Bears, who turned it into a touchdown and 25-13 lead. Fittingly, it was another 12-point comeback opportunity, but Jared Goff just didn’t have it in the elements this day. The running game was solid with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs both going over 60 yards, but when it came time for a 4th-and-1 conversion, Gibbs was stuffed in the backfield for a 4-yard loss.

The Lions were taking their time on the ensuing drive in a 28-13 game, and Goff eventually threw incomplete on 4th-and-17 with 5:16 left. More pressure on him on the next drive led to an interception on 4th-and-24 with 2:31 left to seal it.

Detroit played much better in the first matchup when turnovers put them in a hole. This time, the Bears more or less controlled play from the opening kickoff, something we have rarely ever seen in the Matt Eberflus era.

The Lions have now allowed at least 26 points in all 5 games since the bye week. Without a home win against Denver next week, this is going to get very dicey with games against the Vikings and a trip to Dallas left.

Colts at Bengals: Nice System in Cincinnati…

I hope Jake Browning’s thumb is good because this is getting really interesting in Cincinnati. For the second start in a row, Browning completed at least 75% of his passes with at least 275 yards in a win against another playoff contender in the AFC.

He didn’t take any sacks against the Colts, and his only real mistake was a pick-six that was a receiver error as he handed the ball to the defender on a silver platter. That also proved to be Indy’s final score of the game as the offense only mustered one touchdown drive in a 34-14 loss. It was only the second time all year the Colts failed to score 20 points in a game under Shane Steichen.

They picked a bad time for it with the Bengals in that wild card mix. But Browning clearly won this battle of backups, and Gardner Minshew may have even stayed in the game despite a possible concussion early in the game. The Colts failed to score on their final 5 possessions.

The Colts (7-6) might be in real trouble when you consider how games with the Steelers, their next opponent, usually go. Not only do you have to contend with Minshew’s mistakes, but the running game has essentially gone nowhere in 4-of-5 games.

The Bengals (7-6) are not finished as they have stumbled onto something to work with at the quarterback position in Browning.

Jaguars at Browns: Lawrence Returns But So Has Joe Flacco

Trevor Lawrence has still never missed a start due to injury in his NFL career, but sometimes you wonder if it’s not for the best if a player takes a week to rest. Lawrence barely averaged 5.0 yards per attempt as he threw 50 passes, including 3 interceptions, a 31-27 loss in Cleveland that felt like a 5-hour game.

Cleveland led wire-to-wire with Joe Flacco stepping up to throw for 311 yards and 3 touchdowns, simultaneously making you want to praise Kevin Stefanski for finding quality play in another quarterback not named Deshaun Watson while also questioning just how good that Jake Browning performance was on Monday night if the Jags are playing defense like this. Seriously, David Njoku was left wide open several times for big plays in this one.

But the Jaguars continued to struggle running the ball effectively, and the turnovers were hard to overcome. The game went on so long in part because Cleveland also turned it over 3 times. Each team had 16 possessions (kneeldowns excluded).

The big turning point was the second play of the 4th quarter when Lawrence was picked on a deep ball on 3rd-and-1 in a 21-14 game. I guess the Jaguars can’t even trust Travis Etienne to get a yard when they needed it most. Flacco used that short 48-yard field for another touchdown drive. But the Jaguars kept scoring and applying pressure, even coming up short on a 4th-and-3 with 3:30 left. By the time Jacksonville scored with 1:33 left, there was only time for an onside kick in a 31-27 final. They didn’t recover and the game was over.

Fortunately for the Jaguars (8-5), the Colts and Texans lost too. But the Browns are gaining confidence at 8-5 and just may have a quarterback answer in Flacco if you can believe it in 2023.

Buccaneers at Falcons: Baker Mayfield Brings NFC South Race to a Standstill

The Bucs were 1-15 when allowing 20 points under Todd Bowles since 2022, but make that 2-15 and give Baker Mayfield just as many wins doing it as Tom Brady had last year. The Buccaneers (6-7) are currently leading the NFC South as the Falcons and Saints are also 6-7 for the league’s worst division around.

But Baker did pull out a little Brady in this one as the Falcons were generally the better team, but Younghoe Koo missed two field goals he usually makes, and the Tampa defense was opportunistic in intercepting a screen pass and getting a safety to lead 19-10.

But the Falcons rallied to take a late 25-22 lead. Mayfield’s accuracy and decision making looked woeful on the ensuing drive as he looked like he was playing for a touchdown with under 30 seconds left instead of calmly taking the easy plays in a 3-point game with enough time left. But he finally got on track with a huge 3rd-and-10 conversion to Chris Godwin for 32 yards, then two plays later, he found Cade Otton for an 11-yard touchdown with 31 seconds left to take a 29-25 lead.

The Falcons did a solid job using their 2 timeouts to get into range for the win at the Tampa Bay 31 with 4 seconds left. But that last throw absolutely had to be in the end zone on the final play, and for some reason, Desmond Ridder threw short, completing a pass to Drake London for 28 yards to the 3-yard line to end the game. Didn’t understand that decision at all as Ridder had time to throw a little deeper to the end zone.

The Falcons and Bucs have split with each team winning on the road this year. Who is the best team out of Saints, Buccaneers, and Falcons? Damn if I know. The winner of the division should just be a sacrificial lamb to the NFC East runner-up.

Broncos at Chargers: Did We Just Lose Justin Herbert?

That would be something if this turned out to be the final game of the Brandon Staley-Justin Herbert era for the Chargers. Herbert left with a fractured index finger on his throwing hand, which is obviously not good.

It was already shaping up to be a rough start for Herbert, who had a pick at the line that led to a 3-yard touchdown run by Javonte Williams, his first score on the ground in 2 whole years.

Almost fittingly, Herbert was injured on a 4th-and-2 attempt in the second quarter as Staley bypassed a 47-yard field goal. Easton Stick, a 5th-round pick by the team way back in 2019, replaced him for the rest of the game. That was a tough assignment as the Chargers finished 1-for-6 on 4th down thanks to going 0-for-12 on 3rd down.

The Chargers (5-8) are toast, and the Broncos (7-6) are only a game behind the Chiefs (8-5) in the AFC West if you can believe that.

Texans at Jets: The Most Unexpected 300-Yard Passing Game

What a strange game. It always felt like a trap for the Texans, but who could have imagined 11 straight punts and a knee to go to halftime scoreless, then for Zach Wilson to throw for 301 yards in a 24-6 win?

The weather wasn’t as windy as some expected, so it wasn’t the issue. Not when Wilson was able to pass for 301 yards and multiple touchdowns in his first start in weeks. C.J. Stroud, the rookie who entered Week 14 leading the league in passing yards, only passed for 91 yards before he left the game injured in the fourth quarter.

But this was a case of not having your top two wide receivers and tight end while facing a tough pass defense on the road. The Texans already lost Tank Dell for the year, tight end Dalton Schutlz was still out, and Nico Collins left the game early with an injury. Stroud had his hands full and the Texans just did not deliver this afternoon.

But Wilson had his way with the defense as he completed 27-of-36 passes with Garrett Wilson going over 100 yards, and Randall Cobb even caught a touchdown.

Amusingly, the Jets tacked on 3 field goals in the fourth quarter on drives that all lost yardage as they were set up in Houston territory after 4th down stops by the defense. But the damage was done before that point.

Panthers at Saints: The NFC South Is Really This Bad

The passing offense was absolutely grotesque well into the second half of this game:

Derek Carr ended up finishing with 119 yards on 18 completions, taking him out of record territory, but it was still a putrid showing against the NFL’s only 1-win team. Bryce Young also struggled mightily again as he is regressing instead of showing improvement in his rookie season.

The Saints were almost going to win this one with 7 points on offense and the other 7 from a blocked punt return touchdown. But the defense stopped Carolina on a 4th-and-1 in a 14-6 game, then Carr hit a 44-yard completion that was more yardage than he had in the first 50 minutes combined. That drive was finished with a 7-yard touchdown to Chris Olave, then Jimmy Graham later caught a touchdown to blow it open 28-6.

We can talk about the Saints’ struggles on offense, but the Panthers are beyond putrid. There was already that Week 4 game against Minnesota where the Panthers scored 6 points (two field goals) despite holding the ball for 38:29. They came close to that again in this one with 34:50 in time of possession but only a pair of field goals to show for it.

Not only is Young failing to flash signs of improvement, but he’s f’n boring to watch too. Things are a real mess in Carolina right now and it is unlikely a good coach is going to want to take this job in 2024.

Next week: Are we really going to start the week with Easton Stick and Aidan O’Connell? A Saturday triple-header with no must-see games? It has to be Dallas at Buffalo to carry Sunday, because even SNF (Ravens-Jaguars) has lost some luster with the Jaguars on a losing streak. They flexed KC-NE out of MNF for Eagles-Seahawks, but I thought that was a mistake even before this KC losing streak. I much rather see if the Chiefs can avoid losing to Bailey Zappe than to watch another game with fading Seattle (and Philly for that matter) right now.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 10

~ Scott ~ 11 Comments

Like I said on Saturday, if you ignore the island game mess, the NFL had a solid Week 10 lined up. Sunday proved to be one of the best days of the season so far with a few big upsets in the AFC North and a handful of games where teams kept exchanging scores before someone kicked a field goal with no time left.

The NFL may not have sent its best to Germany again, nor did it bother using the flex option on Sunday night so we didn’t have to see the Jets fail to reach the end zone again. But with the Chiefs, Eagles, and Dolphins all on a bye week, it is hard to argue with Week 10’s quality. Sometimes the bad weeks on paper tun out to be some of the best played weeks.

In all, we had 10 out of 13 games (MNF pending) with a comeback opportunity. While there were technically only two lead changes in the fourth quarter in Week 10, and one of those didn’t happen until the clock showed 0:00, it was a fantastic week for watching teams match scores in the fourth quarter.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Lions at Chargers: Game of the Week or Year?

Ladies and gentlemen, the Chargers are back. This was the Week 10 game I had circled, because I knew we were not going to see the Chargers cruise to an easy win like they had in prime time the last two weeks against the Bears and Jets. We were going to see the Chargers in their element: late afternoon, Justin Herbert trying to bail out Brandon Staley’s defense in a 7-point game in the fourth quarter with a wild finish.

But this was not your usual case of Chargering, because the Chargers actually never led in this game despite the 41-38 final and the Los Angeles offense scoring five straight touchdown drives of at least 68 yards to end the game.

Last season, we saw the Lions tie an NFL record by scoring 45 points in a wire-to-wire loss at home against Seattle in a 48-45 game. This time, the Lions won wire-to-wire despite allowing 38 points. It is only the 20th time that has happened in NFL history.

For the Chargers, I think it was the kind of game we’ve come to expect from them. Herbert played great, he only had one turnover, no sacks, and he threw for 323 yards and 4 touchdowns with a dominant Keenan Allen game (11 catches for 175 yards, 2 touchdowns).

For the Lions, I think it showed the great potential of this offense at full strength. David Montgomery returned and had a 75-yard rushing touchdown to go along with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs rushing for 77 yards and two touchdowns. Jared Goff was very good with 333 yards and no turnovers, and Amon-Ra St. Brown was dominant with 8 catches for 156 yards and a touchdown. Detroit had 533 yards of offense.

If you wanted to nitpick, the game does show some concern that the Lions may be a bit of a paper tiger (or paper lion) on defense. They won’t be able to pressure the top offenses and keep them down on the scoreboard like they’ll need to if they’re going to win a Super Bowl. The Chargers looked great for the most part on offense, and Detroit’s offense had to be spectacular to pull out the win.

Even on the game-winning drive, which started with 3:34 left, we saw the Lions bypass a 44-yard field goal on 4th-and-2 to make sure they could set up the field goal as the final snap. Hard to believe that happened in a tied game, but Dan Campbell has the reputation he does for a reason. Still, you think if he trust his defense he’d consider the field goal with 1:47 left to take the lead. But if you are that concerned about Herbert going for a touchdown, then I understand the call.

Goff delivered the 6-yard gain to Sam LaPorta, which I greatly appreciated, and the win was there. Glad to see our Chargers back on brand.

I would argue the Chargers have played the two most entertaining games of the 2023 season, and they were both home losses to the Dolphins and Lions. I’d probably give the Miami game the edge since it had multiple lead changes and the highlights were a bit stronger. It also ended on a defensive stop, a foreign concept to Staley.

Browns at Ravens: Vintage 2022 Baltimore Football

I just said a couple of weeks ago how no one can stay on top for long this season before getting knocked down a peg. The Ravens were getting a lot of hype, understandably, this week before they had their chance to sweep the Browns and put more of a chokehold on their AFC North lead.

But we have already watched this team beat itself against the Colts and Steelers, shades of what they did often in 2022 even before Lamar Jackson was lost to injury. Sure enough, despite leading at home 14-0, 17-3, 24-9, then 31-17 in the fourth quarter, the Ravens did it again in a shocking 33-31 loss to the Browns, who trailed for all but 40 seconds in the game. They literally threw a pick-six on the second play from scrimmage and trailed until the field goal went through with no time left for their only lead of the game. Hard to top that. The Ravens are just 1-3 in close games this year.

To be fair, there was some fool’s gold feeling about the leads in this game. The pick-6 was a fantastic defensive play, but it was still a tipped ball that bounced the right way. The Ravens also got a 39-yard touchdown run from their new toy Keaton Mitchell, but he somehow finished the game with 3 carries for 34 yards. None of Baltimore’s other 23 runs gained more than 9 yards, and Cleveland had the better ground game with 36 carries for 178 yards.

Baltimore was up 14-0 and Jackson was only 3-of-3 for 30 yards. If Deshaun Watson could just calm down from his horrible start, then they were going to have a chance as the running game was finding traction, and the Ravens have a recent history of melting down after blowing a handful of multi-score leads last year, including 21 points to Miami and 17 points to Buffalo.

The Browns were able to block a 55-yard field goal by Justin Tucker, which is no easy feat, and they intercepted Jackson late in the half, but didn’t get any points out of it after a curious decision to let backup P.J. Walker throw a Hail Mary instead of attempting a 60-yard field goal.

Odell Beckham Jr. showed vintage speed on a 40-yard touchdown catch to start the third quarter, but the Browns started to get in a groove and matched it with their own touchdown. But after Myles Garrett sacked Jackson on a 3rd-and-17, the Browns seemed to commit a fatal mistake with a muffed punt, giving the Ravens the ball back at the Cleveland 12. Despite being that close to the end zone, the Ravens used 3:17 on the clock to go those 12 yards for a touchdown and take a 31-17 lead with 11:34 left. It was a ghastly drive, but it was effective in taking off more time all thanks to penalties on both teams, including a Cleveland penalty that wiped out another Jackson pick.

You normally think the game should be over here, but the Browns drove for another 75-yard touchdown, then the bounce finally went their way as they got their own tipped Jackson pass at the line that was returned for a touchdown with 8:16 left. But instead of tying the game, kicker Dustin Hopkins missed the extra point wide left. Cleveland still trailed 31-30.

The offense burned a little clock, but with the group out of sync, no strong running game to rely on, and an inexcusable delay of game penalty, the Ravens soon punted it back with 4:55 left.

Cleveland’s drive was not pretty, and it had to recover a Watson strip-sack, but it was effective in getting the job done. Watson had a big 16-yard scramble into Baltimore territory, then Jerome Ford’s 12-yard run made a field goal likely. The Browns were able to set it up as the last play and Hopkins redeemed himself with a 40-yard field goal to win it 33-31 to send the Browns to 6-3 and right on the heels of the Ravens (7-3).

It has to be frustrating for Baltimore fans when it looked just like one of 2022’s losses. No lead feels truly safe with this team, and that was not the case in Baltimore for a solid two decades.

As for Cleveland, going into games like this with Watson at quarterback can’t feel good. He did enough to salvage this one, but that defense and running game are going to have to be on point for this to work in January.

But it is getting more likely that the Browns will be in that playoff mix. They could even win the division now that they secured a split with the Ravens, who lost another they should have won.

Texans at Bengals: Chapter 1 in a Future AFC Rivalry?

I think the 2019-22 seasons were largely about figuring out who would rival Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC in the 2020s. We needed new power dynamics in the conference like we used to have with teams like the Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Chargers, and some key appearances from the Ravens and Broncos.

Some contenders emerged like the Bills and Bengals, but we might be able to throw Houston into the mix soon if C.J. Stroud is going to be like this.

It was even a step back from his record-setting performance against Tampa Bay last week, but Stroud still managed to impress with another 356 passing yards in leading Houston to 30 points, and it could have been a lot more with that if the Texans protected the ball better. The Texans had 544 yards of offense, but between Stroud losing 2 fumbles early and throwing a shocking interception with a 10-point lead with 3:33 left, Houston had to sweat this one out after dominating for much of the game.

But even with all the turnovers, I want to point out that Stroud produced these big numbers as a 6.5-point road underdog against a defense that has been limiting great offenses the last few years. He also did it without No. 1 wide receiver Nico Collins, who was inactive, a story I didn’t even know about until the game was almost over. Yet, you heard all week how Tee Higgins was going to be out for this game for Cincinnati, and Ja’Marr Chase was questionable, even though he played and had 124 yards and a touchdown.

But the Texans didn’t sweat the Collins injury, and Stroud threw for 172 yards on 7-of-8 passing to Noah Brown, a forgotten receiver from Dallas who was best known for confusing viewers if CeeDee Lamb just added to his stats. Brown was going to be at best the No. 4 wideout in this offense behind Collins, rookie Tank Dell, veteran slot Robert Woods, and maybe even No. 5 behind John Metchie, a second-round pick in 2022. But Brown had 153 yards against Tampa Bay last week and 172 in this game with Stroud.

That’s why I’m saying if Stroud’s going to be legitimate like this, then we could have a new layer to this AFC. Imagine what things can look like if he gets a defense at some point soon under coach DeMeco Ryans.

There were some miscues in this game that he will hopefully learn from. After Joe Burrow threw a horrible interception in the end zone, his second in the fourth quarter, with 3:53 left, this looked like game over with Houston leading 27-17. But three plays later, Stroud threw his own horrible pick that was nearly returned for a touchdown in a spot where he could have ended the game. It was only his second interception of the season, but like I always say, this Cincinnati defense gets the timely ones like that.

Joe Mixon capped off a 4-yard touchdown drive and it was 27-24 with plenty of time. Houston even helped with another 3-and-out after Stroud was unable to put it away on a 3rd-and-3.

Believe it or not in Week 10, but this was the first time all season the Bengals had a 4QC/GWD opportunity on offense. It only took two plays for the Bengals to be deep in the red zone after Tyler Boyd took a short pass and ran 64 yards with it. But Burrow was sacked, then Boyd dropped a go-ahead score on third-and-goal. Not the most egregious drop, and not a definite game winner, but it definitely hurt, and it was a play he usually makes.

The Bengals had to settle for a 31-yard game-tying field goal and hope for overtime. But it was a bad day for defenses on the field late. Stroud was able to shake off his mistakes and found two more 20-yard plays on the day to set up his new backup kicker, Matt Ammendola, for a 38-yard field goal to win the game with no time left.

Stroud just posted back-to-back games with 350 passing yards and a game-winning drive. That’s as many such games as Tony Romo and Russell Wilson have in their careers, and it’s more than the one career game for Burrow, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, and Lamar Jackson – the other AFC contenders who have been floated as Mahomes’ rival in the last 5 years. If you’re curious, Mahomes’ number for this is 4 games.

Granted, this 350-yard game with a game-winning drive for Stroud could have been a 300-yard game with a 10-point win or 27-24 win had the rookie converted either of his first two 3rd-down opportunities. But the Bengals have fooled better quarterbacks into bigger mistakes before, and Stroud overcame all of that for a huge win as Houston (5-4) secures a key tiebreaker over the Bengals (5-4), who are in trouble again with a trip to Baltimore on a short week coming up this Thursday night.

Now granted, it was only a couple of weeks ago when Houston lost 15-13 to Carolina, the only win for the Panthers this season. It was also only in 2017 when I said Deshaun Watson was on pace for the greatest rookie quarterback season ever, and we know how that eventually turned out.

But after closing one of the darkest chapters in Texans history, the fans must be thrilled about this first chapter for Stroud.

49ers at Jaguars: Super Dud

My only comfortable read on this game was to take the under 45, because I wasn’t feeling very confident in the offenses going up against these defenses. In the end, it was one of the most lopsided games of the year as the 49ers rolled them 34-3. They even tried to get Christian McCaffrey a late touchdown to try extending his streak to 18 games, but it ended on a day where basically everyone else scored, including Deebo Samuel in his return game.

The 49ers were struggling with turnovers and the Jacksonville defense was tied for the league lead in takeaways. But the 49ers won the turnover battle 4-0, and that had a lot to do with the blowout score. Trevor Lawrence was picked twice and coughed up a fumble, and Christian Kirk had a bad fumble inside the 10 in the third quarter that sucked all the life out of this one at 20-3. The 49ers drove 81 yards the other way to make it 27-3 with Samuel’s 23-yard touchdown run and it was a wrap.

The bye week served the 49ers (6-3) well as this is still the most talented team in the league. The Jaguars (6-3) were outclassed, and I think there are legitimate concerns for why this offense isn’t producing more. The situational stats are lousy on the season, Calvin Ridley has not had a big impact, and Lawrence is not taking the next step forward. They look like they have a hard ceiling on where they can go right now.

Saints at Vikings: Dobbs Delivers in Starting Debut

The Vikings have gone from 1-4 to the longest active winning streak at 5 games after another one-possession win over the Saints in the first start for Joshua Dobbs. He has picked up the offense quickly and was excellent in this game with 268 yards, no interceptions, and he ran for 44 yards and another touchdown, showing off his mobility that has been foreign to this Minnesota offense for a long time.

But the Vikings did almost collapse from a 27-3 lead in the second half. An ineffective Derek Carr was injured and replaced by Jameis Winston, who led a pair of touchdown drives to make it 27-19. With a couple of 2-point conversion runs by Alvin Kamara, we almost were witnesses to the fabled 8+8+8 comeback from a 24-point deficit.

But the skillset of Winston that makes him dangerous to face is the same that makes him dangerous to his own team’s wellbeing. He likes to be aggressive with the ball and throw deep, and that burned him with a pair of interceptions late in the game that he really didn’t need to force because of the ample time left.

Winston had over 3 minutes left at midfield on the first one, and almost a full 2 minutes left in Minnesota territory on the last one, which came on a first down too. By the time the Vikings got the ball back, there was only time for a Hail Mary, which fell incomplete to end the game.

The Saints (5-5) continue to struggle while the Vikings are thriving even without Justin Jefferson for the last month and now without Kirk Cousins for the last two games. But Kevin O’Connell is getting to show that he knows how to coach offense, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison have stepped up, and Dobbs is doing very well.

This can still be a playoff team. Hell, they could win the division if they were to sweep Detroit, but one game at a time.

Commanders at Seahawks: Receiving Backs on the Loose

The closer we got to Sunday, the more I liked this to be a shootout with the No. 1 wide receivers dominating these secondaries. D.K. Metcalf finished with 98 yards, but it was improbably long touchdowns on short throws to running backs that put the only touchdowns on the board early in what was a field goal fest into the fourth quarter. Washington’s Brian Robinson had a 51-yard touchdown catch to start the game and Kenneth Walker created a 64-yard scoring play in the third quarter.

Eventually, the game got to where I imagined with both quarterbacks throwing for over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns. Like some other games on Sunday, it was back-and-forth scoring drives until the end with the teams combining to score on the final 5 drives.

Sam Howell led Washington on two game-tying touchdown drives. The last came with 52 seconds left, and I think that left Seattle a little too much time (with 2 timeouts left) to drive for a game-winning field goal had the Commanders gone for a 2-point conversion to try to take a lead. As we saw anyway in a tied game, Seattle was able to set up Jason Myers for a 43-yard field goal at the buzzer after two big catches by Metcalf for 44 yards.

In the end, it was about the game you’d expect between these teams. The Seahawks are 6-3 despite still being outscored by 1 point on the season. The Commanders (4-6) throw the ball more than anyone and basically have the record they deserve with an ugly loss to the Giants cancelling out an unlikely 18-point comeback win in Denver.

Falcons at Cardinals: Return of the Jedi (The One as Tall as Yoda)

On the 11-month anniversary of his torn ACL, Kyler Murray made his return to the field. Without seeing him in so long, you forget how little he is and how unique his running looks when he’s scooting around the field.

Murray’s return was a success as he led the Cardinals to a 25-23 win over a spiraling Atlanta team that has now lost to three straight quarterbacks making their season debut for their team (rookie Will Levis in Tennessee, Joshua Dobbs in Minnesota, and now Murray).

Meanwhile, the Falcons were getting nothing out of Taylor Heinicke in this game, who had 15 pass attempts and 55 passing yards in the fourth quarter before he was knocked out with an injury and replaced by Desmond Ridder. But if you are going to throw so little, why even bench Ridder in the first place?

Ridder sparked the offense in his return. After he was stopped on a 4th-down run earlier in the quarter, Ridder finished his second drive with a 9-yard touchdown run to give the Falcons a 23-22 lead with 2:33 left. But the Falcons missed the crucial 2-point conversion as Ridder was incomplete for Drake London, who bailed out Ridder with an incredible catch earlier in the drive.

Murray keyed his team’s game-winning drive with a 13-yard scramble on a 3rd-and-10, then hit his tight end Trey McBride for a 33-yard gain, the longest in the game. In fact, this game had 4 plays that gained 19+ yards and McBride had 3 of them.

That was enough for the Cardinals to set up a 23-yard field goal as the final snap for Matt Prater, who nailed it for a 25-23 win. Muray was 19-of-32 for 249 yards, a pick, and he rushed for 33 yards and a touchdown.

I think the Falcons (4-6) are a bit screwed as they head into their bye. I’d go back to Ridder for the next game but not sure it’ll matter at this point. As for the Cardinals (2-8), they are in a weird position. The return of Murray probably means they are not going to get the No. 1 pick, but do they still settle for a different rookie quarterback in 2024, or do they try to make this work with Murray?

I guess it depends on how well he plays the rest of the year. After some of the recent draft duds with these college quarterbacks, sometimes newer isn’t any better.

Packers at Steelers: Mostly on Brand

When this game started with three straight touchdown drives, I felt bamboozled again. These are two of the worst offenses in the league, especially in the first half of games. But apparently, Matt Canada calling the game from the field at least produces a good start.

It’s the rest of the game where the offense doesn’t do much as Kenny Pickett only passed for 126 yards in this one. I was not impressed (again). Pickett’s 24.3 QBR was the lowest of any quarterback to win in Week 10. He got away with an awful pick on the second touchdown drive after the defender just failed to get his feet in bounds at the sideline.

The good news is this was one of the best run blocking performances by the Steelers in the last 5 years. They had 205 yards on the ground. Keeping veteran Dan Moore at his usual left tackle spot and putting first-round rookie Broderick Jones at right tackle has helped improve the line.

But the Steelers had to grind for this one again as Jordan Love was gambling and getting away with it for three quarters. The Packers even started the fourth quarter with a trick play that looked like it would have worked, but the receiver dropped the ball in a 20-19 game. Actually, they ruled it a fumble that the Packers recovered, which is what the team would have wanted ruled earlier when it sure looked like the Steelers had a lateral that Green Bay recovered. But it was ruled an incomplete pass.

Down 23-19, Love was picked in the end zone after Patrick Peterson tipped a ball to Keanu Neal that was intended for Christian Watson. Almost like the Seattle play at the end of the 2013 NFC Championship Game against San Francisco. Love had some success in this game, but he was 2/7 for 23 yards and 2 interceptions when targeting Watson, who I want to start calling Cheesehead Claypool after this disappearing act following a good rookie year. Similar to what Chase Claypool did in Pittsburgh in 2020-21.

But Love had a chance with 59 seconds left to drive 81 yards for the win. He got 46 of them right away with a big play to Jayden Reed, the second-round rookie who continues to improve. It looked like the Steelers might blow this one, but just like last week when they stopped the Titans with a game-ending pick in a 4-point win as a 3-point home favorite, they did the exact same thing here with a game-ending pick in the red zone off Love.

The Packers have now gone 7 straight games without scoring 21 points, their longest streak since a 10-game streak in 1990-91.

The Steelers have been outgained in every game this season and are still 6-3, which has never been done before. In fact, the Steelers are the 107th team since 1940 to be outgained in at least 9 straight games at any time of year, and they have the best record (6-3) among those teams. The only other team out of the 107 to have a winning record was the 1985-86 Browns, who were 5-4. You could say Mike Tomlin is doing some Marty Schottenheimer (Martyball) things with this team.

But it’s really just turnover differential and timely plays. I don’t know how long they can sustain this, but the schedule still looks favorable for 9-10 wins doing exactly this style of play.

Giants at Cowboys: Monster Dallas Win Against Division II Team

The Cowboys did not disappoint with the biggest point spread of the season (-17.5) in a 49-17 thrashing of the Giants. Dak Prescott passed for 404 yards and 4 touchdowns. CeeDee Lamb had 11 catches for 151 yards and scored a rushing touchdown. He is the first player ever to stack three straight games with 10 catches and 150 receiving yards.

But I believe games like this only fuel why people don’t trust the Cowboys. They basically operate in three modes:

  • Blowing out scrubs like the Tommy DeVito-led Giants.
  • Playing down to scrubs like their upset loss in Arizona this year or nearly blowing it as a 17-point home favorite against the 2022 Texans last December.
  • Looking dumb and losing to elite teams like the Eagles and 49ers.

When the Cowboys bring their A game, they look like the best team in the league. But just like how no one trusts the Dolphins this year against the good teams, we have been right to treat Dallas the same way for years.

Also, the Giants have to be the worst team in the NFL, right? Save for a half in Arizona where the Cardinals may have literally tanked, this team has been garbage on offense all year and now the defense is starting to give up huge numbers too.

The Giants are 4-15-1 under Brian Daboll ever since his 6-1 start.

Colts vs. Patriots: We Haven’t Sent Our Best to Germany Since WWII Ended

I woke up at noon and saw it was 10-6 Colts with just under 5:00 left, and all I could do was laugh. Of course, we send the Colts to Germany for their first island game of the season and immediately their streak of scoring 20 points in every game under Shane Steichen ends. That was my only good prediction for this game.

But I started checking the box score and it didn’t seem like a 10-6 game. Each team had a respectable third-down conversion rate (respectable for who these QBs are), there was only one turnover (Gardner Minshew INT) to that point, there were no failed fourth-down plays, and each team missed a field goal.

Looking into it later, what you had was abysmal red zone play by the Patriots, a bunch of third-down sacks taken by Mac Jones, and an 8-minute drive that bled into the fourth quarter before Bill Belichick still settled for a 24-yard field goal instead of going for a 4th-and-goal at the 5. It was 7-3 and your little kick made it 7-6. Why not take advantage of the field position and go for it? Your defense was playing great.

Of course, the Patriots wasted this defensive effort when Jones threw an atrocious interception in the red zone with 4:16 left.

That could have been the end of the Jones era in New England, because he was benched for the final drive when the Patriots got the ball back with 1:52 left. Bailey Zappe took over, and the move might have been permanent if he led this team on a 95-yard game-winning touchdown drive. Things were moving to midfield too before maybe the worst fake spike of all time:

I can’t seem to find the Madden view of this one, because that makes it look even worse. So much for the Zappe era, and so much for the Belichick era ending on a high note. He should have just walked away after 2018, because now he’s going to have to find a new team for 2024 if he’s going to coach long enough to break the all-time wins record.

By the way, this is the first time the Patriots lost a game after only allowing 10 points since September 23, 2001 against the Jets. That was the fateful game where Drew Bledsoe was injured by a Mo Lewis hit and Tom Brady replaced him in a 10-3 loss.

If Belichick was hoping a quarterback change would save his bacon this day, he was sorely mistaken.

Titans at Buccaneers: Can’t Find a Pulse

Admit it, you didn’t care one iota about this game. The Titans have played 6 games away from Nashville this season and have yet to top 16 points in any of them. They are also 0-6 when not home where they are 3-0 and average 27.5 points per game. Fun.

As it turns out, the low success rate Will Levis had in his 4 touchdown debut against Atlanta that was filled with 50-yard bombs has not led to more success for the rookie. This was his worst outing yet as he completed 19-of-39 passes for 199 yards and took 4 sacks in the 20-6 loss. Even the running game was shut down (16 carries for 42 yards) as the Buccaneers looked completely different from the defense that was shredded by C.J. Stroud and the Texans last week.

Mike Evans had a huge game with 143 yards and a touchdown, and he even dropped another score. He had 4 catches of 20-plus yards. The Titans didn’t have a play gain more than 15 yards until they trailed 20-6 with half a quarter to play.

Not much more to say about this one. The Titans’ offense simply hasn’t traveled all year long.

Jets at Raiders: J-E-T-S Just Embargo Touchdown Scoring

Since Monday night, we have watched the Jets play 8 quarters in prime time without the team scoring a single touchdown. The Jets have 8 offensive touchdowns in 9 games this season, so I guess it’s not that big of a surprise. But when you can’t break through against the defenses of the Chargers and Raiders, you have some pretty big flaws.

The Jets weren’t doing bad in this field goal fest, and I guess a 16-12 final with only 22 total possessions was better than the toilet bowl this game could have been. But once the Raiders finally broke the 9-9 tie by finding the end zone thanks to a 40-yard run by Josh Jacobs, you felt like the Jets had little hope without a massive turnover and easy field position for Zach Wilson and the offense.

Aidan O’Connell wasn’t great for the Raiders, but he only turned it over once, and he threw a game-winning touchdown pass to rookie tight end Michael Mayer. After the Jets caught their break when the defense forced a Jacobs fumble with 6:06 left, Wilson saved his worst decision of the night on an interception from the Raiders 20 by Robert Spillane with 1:14 left.

The Raiders went 3-and-out and saved the Jets a timeout by throwing incomplete on 3rd-and-5, which I would have called a run to Jacobs for. Wilson had 53 seconds left to go 80 yards, an even bigger miracle than the game-tying drive against the Giants this year. Tight end Tyler Conklin did make some nice plays, including a 27-yard grab, to give the Jets a chance, but they wasted a solid 7 seconds by not getting their final timeout in after Conklin was down. Jets coach Robert Saleh alleged he was trying to get the timeout at 20 seconds, but no one acknowledged him. I’m not sure what happened there but it left the Jets only with 13 seconds left and 44 more yards to go. That’s 2 plays.

I have to say Wilson did a very good job of escaping pressure on the final snap and giving his guys a shot at the Hail Mary in the end zone. But it was not caught, and the Jets lost 16-12 to fall to 4-5, which will be no better than 13th in the AFC.

The Raiders are suddenly 5-5 and celebrating wins under interim coach Antonio Pierce like they won the Super Bowl, but these New York teams are not anyone’s Super Bowl this year. The schedule will get much tougher and I’ll be surprised if the Raiders don’t max out at 7-10, which is the record I had for them before the season started.

The Jets gambled on a quarterback staying hot after his 40th birthday, and they made his backup the kid who thinks hotness begins at 40. They are losing for it now.

Because unlike the past boring editions of teams who just try to hide the quarterback by playing great defense and running the ball, the Jets don’t do enough running. The backs had 17 carries for 54 yards in Vegas, and these are no scrubs with Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. But Wilson himself had 4 runs for 54 yards as a scrambler.

But hey, as long as they keep starting him, we get to see records. Wilson is the first quarterback since the 1970 merger to pass for 260 yards in back-to-back games without leading his team to a single touchdown in either game.

Just put an embargo on touchdown scoring and the Jets might be playoff ready.

Next week: The last time I was this ready for a MNF game, it was cancelled halfway through the first quarter. But Eagles-Chiefs is a big one, and since it’s prime time where offense dies this season, I fully expect the Chiefs to win 16-13. But Bengals-Ravens on TNF is another big one, Steelers-Browns should be a bloodbath at 1:00, and we’ll just ignore the absolute mess they lined up for the late afternoon and SNF (Vikings-Broncos). But I might have a special preview on Chiefs-Eagles or at least something related this week.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 5

~ Scott ~ 16 Comments

Well, I guess we’ll have to wait until Week 13 for the real Game of the Year in the NFC this season when the last two unbeatens in the league (49ers and Eagles) meet in Philadelphia. That rematch of last year’s championship game is still the only time Brock Purdy has lost a start in the NFL.

The Cowboys were so outclassed by the 49ers on Sunday night that Bill Belichick and Sean Payton should send Jerry Jones a gift basket for taking some of the heat and attention away from them suffering the lowest points of their careers.

It started as a pretty weird day with Buffalo losing to the London Jaguars after winning their last 3 games by 28+ points each. Then the Ravens gave a game away to the Steelers, the Colts are 3-2 after flipping the script on Tennessee, the Chiefs almost lost Taylor Swift Travis Kelce for the season, and the 49ers showed us what a super team looks like on Sunday night.

But there is a growing one-sidedness to this season. We only had 1 lead change in the fourth quarter in Week 4, and this week we only had two before Monday Night Football. Only 3 of the last 35 games have had a fourth-quarter lead change. That rate should usually be around 25% of games, not 8.6%. We’re going through a drought of exciting games as it mostly has been one team jumping out to a lead and hanging on.

In Week 5, there were only 7 games with a comeback opportunity, which would be the third week in a row without 8 opportunities. But I have a feeling Monday night will add one more. Before we get there, let’s recap Sunday’s action.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Cowboys at 49ers: Game of the Ye-Yeah It Was Another McCarthy Clusterf*ck

If this was a measuring stick game, then the 49ers took the stick and beat the Cowboys to death with it. They also put the rest of the league on notice that this is the best team in the NFL right now.

The closest Dallas came to staying with the 49ers on the scoreboard was for the 3 minutes and 50 seconds that this game remained 0-0 before George Kittle scored his first of three touchdowns on the night. Dallas trailed by at least 7 points for the final 56:10 on the way to a 42-10 loss.

I’d say it reminded me of the times when Mike McCarthy’s Packers went 0-4 against Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers in 2012-13, but those games were never this lopsided. This was much worse than the last two postseason losses for Dallas against the 49ers, which was supposed to be the motivating factor for the Cowboys to look better in this matchup if San Francisco is the new measuring stick in the NFC. Remember, it was 12-12 in the fourth quarter in the divisional round last year.

But it is looking like McCarthy will move to 0-7 against the 49ers in the years where they make the playoffs. This was the worst performance yet on both sides of the ball.

Save for one 78-yard touchdown drive, Dak Prescott played an awful game, finishing with 3 interceptions, 3 sacks, and only 153 passing yards before he was yanked in the final quarter of a blowout. Also, so much for Tony Pollard making an impact after he was injured in the playoff game last January. He had 8 carries for 29 yards, getting outrushed by Deebo Samuel (30 yards).

While the Dallas defense did come up with 3 stops in a row early in the game, they followed that by allowing 5 touchdowns on the next 6 drives. Good night, Irene. Brock Purdy looked more like the quarterback I saw shred Pittsburgh in Week 1 with a passing clinic as he ran his record to 13-0 in games where he attempts 20 passes. Purdy had 4 touchdown passes, confirming the Cowboys were no longer playing the Giants, Jets, Cardinals, and Patriots.

Christian McCaffrey scored a touchdown for the 14th game in a row despite the fact he only averaged 2.7 yards per carry and had a season-low 2 catches. But there were not even moral victories for Dallas in this one. This was the worst performance any team this year’s had against the 49ers.

It may only be a game in Week 5 and crazier things have happened before, but I don’t know how any Dallas fan could not be extremely pessimistic about the rest of the season after this. The Cowboys (3-2) still have to play the Eagles (twice), Bills, Dolphins, Lions, Chargers, and Seahawks. For a team that’s already lost to the Cardinals, we might as well mention they play the Commanders (twice) and Rams too.

Dallas was my Super Bowl loser pick in the NFC this year, and losing this game in Week 5 was part of my script. But even I would start walking that pick back after what I saw on Sunday night.

Meanwhile, the 49ers’ biggest question this year was if Purdy is a legitimate starter or if last year was a fluke. After Week 5, I think we have to admit he is capable of leading this team all the way.

The 49ers are 17-1 in their last 18 games, and you know what happened to the quarterback position in the only loss. They are only the 5th team to start a season at least 5-0 with 30 points scored in every game, joining the 2000 Rams, 2007 Patriots, 2013 Broncos, and 2018 Rams. Those last three teams all lost the Super Bowl that year, and the 2000 Rams lost a wild card game.

There’s a lot of season left, but we are witnessing something historic with the 49ers. As for Dallas, it is looking like the status quo, which means Macarena was on the Billboard Hot 100 more recently than the Cowboys were in the NFC Championship Game.

Ravens at Steelers: Respect the Rivalry

People who do not respect this rivalry do not understand that no matter what talent gap exists between these teams, they are always capable of playing a tight, low-scoring game that goes down to the wire.

Having said that, I am still in shock that the Ravens took a 10-0 lead with 12:23 left in the 2nd quarter and never scored again in a 17-10 loss. It is no understatement to say the Ravens left 30+ points on the field in one of the most egregious losses in the history of this rivalry. This is right up there with Kris Brown missing 4 field goals for Pittsburgh in 2001.

I’ll blame everyone on Baltimore except for Justin Tucker. Lamar Jackson was sharp early, but his receivers were terrible with a handful of drops before halftime. After the pressure increased as the game wore on, Jackson’s accuracy and decision making also fell apart, and he became another scapegoat in this terrible loss.

I have no idea what John Harbaugh and the Ravens were thinking to end the first half. Instead of bringing out Tucker for an easy 41-yard field goal on a 4th-and-2, the offense ran a play, and Jackson hurried a terrible throw that fell incomplete. There goes 3 points.

The Ravens may have escaped this one if not for a big blocked punt in the fourth quarter that almost turned into a touchdown, but the Steelers settled for a safety and 10-5 deficit. It was running back Jaylen Warren rather than Najee Harris who sparked the offense to get a field goal and make it 10-8. But even after getting a three-and-out, the Steelers fumbled the punt return and gave the Ravens a golden opportunity with a first-and-goal at the 7.

But on 3rd-and-5, Jackson forced a pass in the end zone to Odell Beckham Jr. and Joey Porter Jr. made a monster interception with 4:06 left. Down 10-8, Kenny Pickett is good for about one scoring drive a game. Sometimes they are timely ones like his game-winning touchdown drive against the Ravens last year.

This didn’t seem like a spot where he would step up after the offense struggled again, but he did. George Pickens had a huge quarter and came alive with two 20-yard plays. The last was a shocker as you would think the Steelers would set up a game-winning field goal with no time left, but they went for the dagger and Pickett hit Pickens deep after he beat Marlon Humphrey for a 41-yard touchdown with 1:17 left. Pittsburgh led 14-10 for the first time all day.

Jackson had plenty of time to answer, but on the second play of the drive, Alex Highsmith forced him to fumble on a sack, and T.J. Watt was there for the recovery. The Steelers saved the Ravens 40 seconds with a penalty on a kneeldown, a huge mistake. But the field goal made it 17-10 with 49 seconds left.

Things were not going well for the Ravens on the drive, and Watt made sure he was going to end it this time with a sack of Jackson on 4th-and-7 at his own 28. Game over. The Steelers somehow survived this one.

The 2023 Steelers are 3-2 and in first place in the AFC North, and I just find that so comical because this offense continues to suck. Frankly, the defense isn’t that good either, but this team’s magic sauce right now is getting quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Jackson – he added to his poor track record vs. Pittsburgh – to make enough mistakes to allow them to steal a win late. The Steelers have given up 30 points and been dominated by the 49ers and Texans, two teams running the Kyle Shanahan offensive system with quarterbacks (Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud) who seemingly can’t throw interceptions right now.

But give them a sack merchant or a risky thrower, and they are going to get enough big plays from the likes of T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Minkah Fitzpatrick to make the difference. Maybe Porter Jr. is the latest defender to save the day.

I’m still shocked the Ravens failed to score on their final 9 drives despite numerous opportunities to do so. Hell, I’m still shocked they watched Gardner Minshew pull an Orlovsky and they still lost that game to the Colts. Ditto on Sunday with the way the Steelers fumbled a punt at the 7-yard line late in the game.

Who wins the AFC North? Damned if I know at this point. It’s a mess of a division this year.

Chiefs at Vikings: Repeating Is Hard

Winning a Super Bowl is hard. Winning two in a row seems impossible these days in the NFL. But you know what might be even harder? Winning a ton of close games in back-to-back years.

The 2008-09 Colts pulled it off when Peyton Manning was at the height of his team-carrying powers, but most teams regress hard in close games the following year. The Vikings are feeling that now. After starting his career 8-0 at game-winning drive opportunities, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is 0-5 going back to the wild card playoff loss to the Giants.

This was another failed comeback, but unlike last year, this was another difficult situation with the Chiefs leading 27-13 to start the fourth quarter. Even though it looked like Travis Kelce fell victim to a brutal non-contact leg injury in the first half, he found a way to come back on a bad ankle in the third quarter and caught several passes before scoring another touchdown, his first since turning 34 the other day.

Just when you thought the Vikings had some momentum, Kelce came back to finish the game while Justin Jefferson was out with a hamstring injury. He played much of the game, but the Chiefs held him to just 28 yards.

But the Chiefs rarely make it easy on themselves. After the Vikings made it 27-20, the Chiefs looked like they were going to go for a 4th-and-1 at their own 47 with 9:05 left after the Vikings used their last timeout. But the Chiefs were only trying to draw the Vikings offsides before they punted.

That’s the kind of decision I still don’t get with Andy Reid. You have Mahomes and you still had Kelce playing. Why not just go for it? Chances are you will convert, then you can end up adding more points and get this to a 2-score lead with little time left for the team out of timeouts.

I don’t know if it’s false trust in the defense or just the old hubris of doing things the way they’ve always done them. But this is the kind of situation I’d like to see the Chiefs start going for. Instead, they gave Cousins a shot at tying the game.

Without Jefferson, that was going to be tough. Inexcusably, the Vikings were flagged for delay of game when they wanted to go for a 4th-and-7 at the Kansas City 19. The respect for Mahomes’ ability to run out the clock is crazy but justified, because the Vikings still went for the 4th-and-12 instead of taking a field goal with 4:54 left. The Jaguars did something very similar in Week 2 against the Chiefs. Before these two plays, you have to go back to 1999 to find the last time an offense, down 7-8 points with more than 4:00 left in the fourth quarter and the ball inside the opponent 30, went for a 4th-and-10 or longer instead of kicking a field goal.

The Chiefs brought pressure, Cousins just threw one up for the end zone, and the flag for DPI was rightfully picked up as the pass wasn’t even close. There could have been a penalty on the Chiefs for their player taking his helmet off after the play. T.J. Watt was called for that in Pittsburgh in the early slate. We’ve seen this get called and we’ve seen it go uncalled. Refs are not consistent on it. I’m not a big fan of the rule period, so I don’t mind that one being let go. It still happened after possession changed, so it would have remained Kansas City’s ball.

But this time, Mahomes did not bleed the clock. He thought he could pass into the flat for a game-clinching first down, but the Vikings were there to stop it short. The Chiefs punted and Cousins had to drive 81 yards in 1:07. Crazier things have happened. It looked like Cousins had a decent shot at a Hail Mary from just 38 yards away on the final snap, but the Chiefs put that to rest right away with a game-ending sack of Cousins.

The Chiefs are 4-1 and seem to have avoided the worst with Kelce’s injury. It is a quick turnaround to play Denver on Thursday night, but you know this team will have something cooked up. But it gets scary when you see Kelce having injury issues and Mahomes has narrowly avoided some serious hits too. The repeat dream is over if this connection is not available to the Chiefs.

Bills vs. Jaguars: Josh Allen Loses Again to His Namesake

Did it help that Jacksonville stayed in London after winning there (albeit at a different venue) last week? Did it hurt that Buffalo did not arrive until Friday? I don’t know what impact, if any, it had but it probably had something to do with the Jaguars jumping out to an 11-0 lead against a team that was so dominant since Week 2.

The London travel difference had me worried about this game for Buffalo. I also remembered the weird 9-6 loss the Bills had to Urban Meyer’s Jags in 2021 when Josh Allen the quarterback imploded against Josh Allen the defender.

But this was a weird Buffalo loss as it was not the turnovers that did in the Bills this time. Their only turnovers came in the fourth quarter, and while Allen threw an interception in an 11-7 game, it was on a 3-and-15 and served as a good punt. The only other turnover was an ill-advised lateral in the final seconds when the Bills needed a miracle anyway.

The Bills punted 6 times before the fourth quarter, something the Bills have done only one other time since 2020 (7 early punts vs. 2021 Jets). That’s impressive for the Jacksonville defense, but oddly enough, I was a little more impressed with the way the Bills kept Jacksonville from scoring despite so many defensive injuries. They lost Matt Milano and Von Miller in this game among others. But twice they were able to force Trevor Lawrence into a fumble deep in scoring territory.

Unfortunately, the injuries did catch up to Buffalo as Travis Etienne burned them late in the game on his way to 136 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. The Bills only rushed for 29 yards on 14 carries, and that even includes Allen’s contributions as a runner (4 carries for 14 yards and a touchdown). Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs both hit 100 yards, but the Bills were stuck on 7 points for too long and caught playing catchup to a Jacksonville team that showed up to play.

The penalties were also out of control in the fourth quarter on both sides. One Buffalo touchdown drive saw 6 plays get flagged for something. But the most egregious one was a roughing the passer to wipe out a sack of Allen on a 3rd-and-1 that would have turned it into 4th-and-12 and likely a field goal attempt late in an 18-7 game. That whole play was screwed up because there was so much uncertainty whether it was 3rd-and-1 or 1st-and-10 for Buffalo. The Bills caught a break with that call, then wasted it after Etienne broke loose for a 35-yard touchdown to regain a 12-point lead.

The Bills did a great job driving 75 yards in 45 seconds for another touchdown, but the onside kick is impossible these days. By the time they got it back in a 25-20 game, they had to go 94 yards in 22 seconds. That’s when Diggs tried a lateral that was fumbled to end the game.

The Bills having a London letdown after last week’s huge win is not that surprising, especially when you consider the defensive injuries. Is it the kind of loss that adds to this team being untrustworthy in big games? Well, it was still a hell of a lot better than what the Cowboys did on Sunday night. I’m not that worried about Buffalo yet, but the injuries definitely need to chill out.

Bengals at Cardinals: Ja’Marr Chase to the Rescue

The Cardinals were my upset pick for Week 5, but I haven’t been able to get a Cincinnati game right since Week 2 when I said the Ravens would beat them.

Going to Arizona, a team playing better than expected, without Tee Higgins (ribs) did not seem like an ideal spot for Joe Burrow to get right, but he definitely knew where Ja’Marr Chase was all game. Chase had no touchdowns coming into the game but scored 3 here on his way to 15 catches and 192 yards. That’s a career game for most wide receivers, but it’s not even the best Chase game we have ever seen.

It was just the best one in 2023 as the league’s worst offense finally put things together to have a successful outing. But the game really turned on Arizona when the defense got a goal-line stand only for Joshua Dobbs to force a pick-six from his own end zone in the second quarter.

The Bengals took the lead and never looked back. Arizona had no turnovers in the last 3 games, but Dobbs had 3 turnovers in this game. The Cardinals also lost James Conner to an injury, which is not uncommon for him.

There were some bright moments for Arizona after a pick and some sacks of Burrow, but overall, the team was outclassed by a Cincinnati team that has not been playing well this year at all.

Does this mean the Bengals are “back” this year? I have no idea. I thought things were going to be better after the Los Angeles win, but then they shit the bed in Tennessee the next week. But they get the Seahawks next week, and both Cincinnati wins are against the NFC West so far. Maybe an unfamiliar opponent will help in addition to probably getting Higgins back.

Eagles at Rams: We’re Going with Brotherly Shove Now?

With the growing coverage and controversy around the “Tush Push” or “Brotherly Shove” quarterback sneak, this game was a great example of just how much better the Eagles are at it than everyone else. That strong offensive line combined with the strength of Jalen Hurts just makes it look unstoppable even when the defense knows exactly what is coming. Hurts just pushes through until he gets the first down.

He did it again in epic fashion before halftime with the Eagles down and only 2 seconds left on the clock. But when this team is at the 1-yard line, Hurts scoring is almost automatic. They called their sneak and he scored again to take a 17-14 lead after a good half saw Dallas Goedert and Cooper Kupp dominating for their respective teams. Kupp made his season debut and did not miss a beat even with sharing the ball with rookie sensation Puka Nacua.

But to the detriment of my best parlay on Sunday, the second half was a flop for scoring:

  • Stafford was hit for an intentional grounding at midfield on third down.
  • Hurts was intercepted in the end zone on a brilliant catch by Ahkello Witherspoon.
  • A screen to Puka on a third down at the Philadelphia 43 was blown up and nearly a lost fumble for the Rams.
  • The Eagles settled for a 26-yard field goal to take a 20-14 lead with 12:29 left to play.
  • Stafford missed a deep third down to Kupp, then the Eagles burned more clock for another field goal with 4:06 left.
  • Haason Reddick sacked Stafford on back-to-back plays, including a 4th-and-12 with 2:46 left.
  • Hurts converted another 3rd-and-1 with the sneak, but the Eagles were eventually stopped on a 4th-down run with only 61 seconds left.
  • The Rams were in no hurry to seriously try scoring as the clock expired with the ball inside their 40.

Just a brutal way to lose out on what looked like an easy over, but each team only had 8 possessions, and the Rams failed to score on their last 5. The Eagles had two field goal drives that consumed over 8:00 each. It was another efficient performance for a team that is rounding into shape, but they will have to play even better than this to knock off the 49ers in the NFC this year.

Titans at Colts: AFC South Dark Horse?

This one shocked me as I did not expect Zack Moss (195 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns) to be the dominant back in a game with Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor. In fact, I didn’t expect the Colts to run well at all against the Titans, who were allowing a league-low 2.9 yards per carry coming into Week 5.

That is what the Titans do going back some time now. They shut down the run and force you to throw, which is not something the Colts are cut out for like the old days. But they were proving that all wrong in this game as they ran the ball at will on the Titans with Moss getting most of the work as they eased Taylor back, and the passing game was solid with Gardner Minshew replacing an injured (again) Anthony Richardson. The Colts were 20-of-26 passing for 253 yards and only 1 sack. The Colts scored 23 points on 7 drives and gained at least 40 yards on their last 6 drives.

But the other side of the coin was the Tennessee running game, which stalled with 20 handoffs for 77 yards. Henry only had 43 yards and was stuffed on the play of the game on a 4th-and-1 at the Colts 5 in a 20-16 game with 8:03 left.

The Colts had an epic 14-play drive for a field goal that only left Ryan Tannehill a minute to drive 75 yards in a 23-16 game. Things were not going well, and he was intercepted with 10 seconds left to secure the win for the Colts, who are now 3-2.

This will go down as another low-scoring road loss for the Titans, but the game was more offensive than it looks with the tiny number of possessions for each team. But that just magnifies the 4th-down stop the Colts had on Henry.

With a game at Jacksonville next week where the Colts haven’t won since 2014, the team is in an odd position where they might be better with Minshew at quarterback than the rookie. But more than anything, they might have some real durability concerns with Richardson, who has already failed to finish 3 games due to 3 different injuries. He also missed a full game in Week 3 after a concussion. Maybe he can shake off these early injuries like Matthew Stafford did in Detroit years ago, but for now, Richardson is not someone the team can count on to stay in the game.

After what happened to end the careers of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck in Indy, this is definitely a worrisome look. But Minshew is one of the best backups in the league, and the Colts already gave the Jaguars a tough game in Week 1.

Jets at Broncos: Hackett Gets the Last Laugh

Oh, did we learn some things in this one.

  • Sean Payton can talk the talk, but he can’t walk the walk anymore, going 0-3 at home to Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Howell, and Zach Wilson.
  • Zach Wilson is not as good as Justin Fields at exploiting a terrible defense, but he played a serviceable game until a bad luck interception stuck to a defender late in the game.
  • Nathaniel Hackett and the Jets finally unleashed Breece Hall and he answered with 194 scrimmage yards and a touchdown.
  • Russell Wilson fell in love with scrambling and passes to running backs against this tough defense, but when push came to shove late in the game, he couldn’t find his wideouts to get a game-tying field goal.
  • Denver’s season is over at 1-4 with both Kansas City games coming up and a game with Buffalo soon.

Both offenses thrived on their running backs in this one. While not getting shredded by Zach Wilson was a triumph for the Denver defense, it was still a lousy game overall as the Jets piled up over 400 yards after driving for at least 40 yards on 7 straight drives to end the game.

But a late interception in field goal range gave Russell Wilson and the Broncos a chance from their own 3 in a 24-21 game with 2:14 left. Long field but plenty of time. Wilson did get the offense out to the 41, but with the Jets getting closer and closer in the fourth quarter, they finally got Wilson with a forced fumble that was picked up and returned for a touchdown to ice the game.

Should the Jets have gone down and kneeled it out to win 24-21? Probably, but you can tell it was personal for this team to stick it to Payton and the Broncos in their own building. It’s not like Wilson was going to put up 10 points in 29 seconds.

The better team won, and with the way Denver approached this must-win game, perhaps it is the better coaching staff too in New York. Hackett was unquestionably awful as Denver’s coach last year, but Payton is doing a shockingly bad job that could go down as being even worse.

I never would have guessed things would start this poorly for Denver this year. Fortunately, losing at home to Hackett and the Jets (without Aaron Rodgers) is probably the worst it can get this year. That’s saying something for a team that already had a game where it allowed 70 points and 726 yards.

Giants at Dolphins: Run Those Bums Off the Field

Look, the Giants are just trash. This team has played like shit for 9-of-10 halves this season, only coming back against Arizona’s nameless defense when that team was still formulating its tanking plan for Caleb Williams.

The Giants finally scored a first-half touchdown in this game, and of course it was on a 102-yard pick-six as Tua Tagovailoa got greedy before the half. A second interception in the third quarter also set up the Giants for a 4-yard field goal drive, so 10 of those points are directly on the Miami passing game.

But nothing says trash Giants team like a 10-play, 18-yard field goal drive in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins were able to cover the 13-point spread without playing anywhere near their A game.

But with these ridiculous speed demons on the field, how could they not beat the Giants by a couple of touchdowns? Miami had plays that gained 64, 69, and 76 yards, and it was basically all about the speed of Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane. The latter now has a run of at least 55 yards in three straight games. He’s already a third of the way to Derrick Henry’s career total of 55-yard runs (9) and a quarter of the way to Chris Johnson (12). It’s Week 5 of his rookie year. His speed is just absurd to watch, and it is almost unfair that the league let Miami draft him in the third round.

Thanks to the explosive play of Achane and Hill, the Dolphins averaged 9.7 yards per play, a huge number we rarely see. Miami is the first team in NFL history to have two games in a season where the offense averaged at least 9.5 yards per play. Only five other offenses in the Super Bowl era had multiple games in a season averaging over 9.0 yards per play. Oddly enough, the 2018 Dolphins with a whole different cast was one of those teams.

Miami has averaged 8.31 yards per play over the last 5 games. The only team in NFL history with a better 5-game span was the 2000 Rams (8.51).

It looks like the 2000 Rams are the team these Dolphins are chasing in the record books. Miami’s 2,568 yards of offense are the most ever through 5 games in a season in NFL history, surpassing the 2000 Rams (2,527 yards).

But if you look at the 135 teams to have at least 2,000 yards of offense through 5 games, only 8 of those teams (5.9%) won the championship that season, and almost half of them only had to win one playoff game to do it back in the day (1941 Bears, 1951 Rams, 1958 Colts, 1988 49ers, 1995 Cowboys, 2009 Saints, 2019 Chiefs, and 2021 Rams).

For Miami’s sake, you want to be more like the 1999 or 2001 Rams than the 2000 team that had a horrible defense, turned the ball over too much, and lost a wild card game to the Saints. But the defense at least dominated the Giants, Daniel Jones left with a neck injury, and the Dolphins can beat up on a winless Carolina team next week to get to 5-1.

We’ll be history watching with this offense all season, but historically, this does not yet have the makings of a championship team. But that speed is sure fun to watch dominate the bad teams.

Texans at Falcons: Promising Day for Desmond Ridder

If you wanted a game with solid quarterback play and multiple lead changes, this is one of your only choices the last couple of weeks. Neither team was able to break 2.8 yards per carry, but their quarterbacks avoided turnovers. In fact, C.J. Stroud was able to set the record for most pass attempts without an interception to begin his career.

Stroud also did a more than respectable job in the first game-winning drive attempt of his career. Down 18-12, he engineered a 75-yard touchdown drive, finding tight end Dalton Schultz for an 18-yard score with 1:49 left to take a 19-18 lead.

The only knock you can make is that the Texans went 3-and-out on their previous drive, which led to an Atlanta field goal and 18-12 deficit. By only going up a point with so much time left, it left the Falcons some low-hanging fruit to simply get into range for a game-winning field goal with no time left.

That’s exactly what they did as Desmond Ridder had the best game of his NFL career with 329 passing yards on 28-of-37 passing. He also ran for a touchdown earlier in the game. Ridder ended up leading two go-ahead drives in this one, throwing a touchdown pass to Bijan Robinson early in the quarter and then he was 5-for-5 for 44 yards on the game-winning field goal drive. Younghoe Koo was good from 37 yards away with no time left in the 21-19 win.

It was a very good day for Ridder when you consider the running game was held to 86 yards on 32 carries. He finally got Kyle Pitts involved with a game-high 87 yards on 7-of-11 passing. He finished strong even after his teammates fumbled on back-to-back drives in the third quarter. The Falcons can win with a quarterback like this, but Ridder will have to show he can do it more often.

Saints at Patriots: Belichick Can’t Tell a Single Soul That His Soul’s Gone

I said this would be the worst New England team in the 21st century. But 34-0 at home to Derek Carr a week after losing 38-3 in Dallas? The 2023 Patriots are only the 9th team since the merger to lose back-to-back games by 34 points. The last to do it was the 2019 Dolphins, a team accused of tanking.

I doubt Bill Belichick is actively tanking when he’s trying to get the all-time wins record without getting fired by Robert Kraft first, but this is a mess. Mac Jones had 3 more turnovers, including another awful pick-six as the first score of the game, a 25-yard return by Tyrann Mathieu. The second interception was not his fault at all, but there are a lot of problems with this team now and Belichick is out of solutions.

For one, you need talent, and his roster might be battling Arizona for the worst talent in the league. When you take Matt Judon and Christian Gonzalez away from the defense, that leaves a very bland lineup that cannot provide the necessary carnage to give this weak offense a shot.

This game was over at halftime. The Patriots are the only team since 1991 to get shut out at home while going 1-for-14 (or worse) on third down. The 8 first downs are the fewest by the Patriots since Belichick took the job in 2000.

Can it get lower than this? The Patriots (1-4) go back to Las Vegas next week where Belichick can fall to 0-3 against Josh McDaniels in his career.

Panthers at Lions: By Air and Ground

The 2022 Lions had a respectable season, but one of the biggest eyesores was that 37-23 loss in Carolina where they were outrushed 320-45. On Sunday, the Lions got some revenge in a complete team effort, 42-24 win despite not having Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs available on offense.

But the Lions showed that their other draft picks and additions are more than enough to beat a bad Carolina team that has still never had a fourth-quarter lead this season. David Montgomery basically gave the middle finger to the Gibbs truthers with a 42-yard touchdown run on his first carry as he finished with another 109 yards on the ground. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta scored two touchdowns and looks great.

The defense held Carolina to 99 rushing yards and picked off Bryce Young twice, including an incredible one-handed snag in the backfield by Aidan Hutchinson. I’m impressed with a defensive lineman who now has 4 interceptions in his first 22 games. Even J.J. Watt only had 3 of those in his career, and that includes his memorable pick-6 off Andy Dalton in a playoff game his rookie year (2011 AFC wild card).

The Lions (4-1) are doing very well and will get a decent road test in Tampa Bay next week. It is too early to talk 0-17 for the Panthers (0-5), but with a trip to Miami next, you can count on 0-6 going into the bye. But they’ll have shots against the Texans/Colts/Bears out of that to get their first win.

Next week: Quick turnaround for the wounded Chiefs as they look to make it 16 in a row against Denver on Thursday night. You will not get me up early to watch Titans-Ravens overseas. Seahawks-Bengals got much more interesting with the Cincinnati one, and I have no idea which team to trust in that one. I’m sure Nick Bosa will be in rare form against Deshaun Watson, and with the Eagles facing the Jets, I think there’s a solid shot we have two 6-0 teams in a week.  

NFL Week 5 Predictions: Old School Cowboys vs. 49ers Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

You have to go back to 1992-1994 to find the last time Cowboys vs. 49ers was such a big deal as it is right now. That was when the teams met in the NFC Championship Game every year and the winner went on to win the Super Bowl. When those teams met, it was big.

The 49ers and Cowboys of 2021-23 are not that successful, but they are two of the elite teams in the NFL in this era. They meet Sunday night in San Francisco in what is easily the game of the week. Maybe even the Game of the Year in the NFC if the Eagles are not going to achieve a higher level of play. The Cowboys will try to avenge their playoff losses from the last two seasons, but the 49ers are on a hot streak and Brock Purdy has never lost a game unless he was injured on the opening drive.

When I did my 2023 NFL Predictions before Week 1, I had Dallas losing this game but gaining valuable information for a playoff rematch that they could finally prevail in. I really do believe this lack of information and experience on the 49ers has hurt Dallas in the postseason games as often times those games are rematches from the regular season. But Dallas hasn’t played the 49ers in the regular season since 2020, so this game will be a great test to see where they are.

But I’m not wavering in my Week 5 pick. While I still think better days are ahead for Dallas this year, I like the 49ers to win this one at home. I think the Dallas defense will continue to be successful and keep the 49ers under 30 points, which no one else has done this year. But when I look at the Dallas offense right now, I’m not a fan of the dink-and-dunk approach with Dak Prescott this year (lowest aDOT in league and only QB under 6.0 yards), and the red zone offense has been horrible. The defense has faced an easy schedule and doesn’t have Trevon Diggs (ACL) to face a ridiculously stacked offense with Brandon Aiyuk stealing the show these days from George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. The Christian McCaffrey touchdown is a sure thing these days too.

I hope the game is close and exciting, but I see a slugfest that is ultimately won by the 49ers.

Final: 49ers 24, Cowboys 20

This week’s articles:

NFL Week 5 Predictions

I would be lying if I didn’t admit the death of Dick Butkus gave me the last step of confidence to trust the Bears to end their 14-gmae losing streak against Washington on Thursday night. They did, and RIP to an absolute legend.

The London Game scares me for multiple reasons, and one of them is definitely the 9-6 loss Buffalo had in 2021 in Jacksonville. What if Josh Allen implodes again with turnovers against the other Josh Allen’s defense? But the Bills have won 3 in a row by 28+ points, which is one game shy of the NFL record. They were the last team to do it in 2020, and that time their next game was a 27-24 win over the Colts in the wild card round. But Jacksonville staying all week overseas feels like a possible advantage for this game. I dunno, so I ended up taking Buffalo to win a tight one.

Call me a hater but I’ll keep betting on C.J. Stroud to throw an interception until he does. He’s 26 attempts away from the record for most attempts to begin a career without one. Just play the odds. It’ll come.

CAR-DET is one of the bigger spreads and I loved Carolina’s side a lot more at -10.5 than I do -9.5, but the Lions have some worrisome injuries, and you never know when a repeat of last year could happen. But I think Detroit does win this time.

Frankly, the 1 p.m. slate sucks this week. It should be a lot of low-scoring battles, and I’m not overly looking forward to Ravens-Steelers as I can’t stand watching Matt Canada’s offense anymore. But the people arguing about how it won’t be close should give more respect to just how much these teams live up to their brands of playing physical against each other. Even in the 3 games that Lamar Jackson has played against the Steelers, he’s won 26-23 in overtime, lost 28-24 at home, and lost 20-19 after a failed 2-point conversion play. I think it’ll be decided by one possession again. Don’t forget the Ravens have played a ton of close games since 2021 too. Mike Tomlin is 12-1 against a 4.5-point spread following his last 13 losses by 12+ points.

Finally looking forward to a 4:00 slate that has 4 games instead of 3, and they are all intriguing in their own way.

Cardinals dropping Bengals to 1-4 is my upset pick of the week.

Jets-Broncos has that funny Nathaniel Hackett-Sean Payton beef to settle, and I would love to see both teams score 30+ (+1500 odds on that) in a crazy shootout where Zach Wilson and Breece Hall go off and so does Russ and Marvin Mims as these coaches try to outdo one another. I’m actually worried about picking Denver but think they shouldn’t go 0-3 at home. But man is that defense something uniquely terrible.

Eagles-Rams is a game I like the over more than the spread. Should be a good one unless Stafford is getting crushed behind that line. And I’m getting Chiefs-Vikings after the Ravens-Steelers game and I look forward to seeing a Mahomes game-winning drive in that one to add to Minnesota’s regression misery this year.

I already talked about SNF. For MNF, of course I love Davante Adams to have a big game against Green Bay.

Let’s win some more money this weekend (and this time don’t blow a big chunk on Divine Fortune at 8 AM when you should be sleeping).

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 2

~ Scott ~ 20 Comments

Now that’s more like it. After a low-scoring Week 1, the NFL got back on track with a Week 2 slate (MNF doubleheader pending) that featured:

  • 10 games with a comeback opportunity
  • 10 300-yard passers (5 in Week 1)
  • 8 games where both teams scored more than 21 points (1 in Week 1)
  • 4 double-digit comeback wins (half in the 4th quarter alone)
  • 2 overtime games
  • 1 Hail Mary touchdown that will quickly be forgotten since it ended with a loss

Also, in Week 1, half the quarterbacks (16/32) had a QBR under 45.0 at ESPN. In Week 2, only 3-of-28 quarterbacks (10.7%) had a QBR under 45.0. I don’t have an updated database of this stat, but I have to imagine 3-of-28 would make this one of the best statistical weeks for quarterback play since 2006. At the very least, a week where not many people flat out sucked.

So far, it is looking like 2023 will be a very competitive season as teams like the Rams, Colts, and Cardinals may not be the epic dumpster fires they could have been. Even the Giants went from being outscored 60-0 to scoring 31 points in a win in one half today.

In the flash in the pan NFC, the Falcons, Buccaneers, and Commanders are all 2-0, though I’m not sure any of them has real staying power this year. Five of their 6 wins have been by a game-winning drive and the one that wasn’t needed a game-clinching pick-6 in a 3-point game today. The schedule will continue helping those NFC South teams, but I’m not ready to say any of these teams have “arrived” as surprises just yet.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Ravens at Bengals: When the Quarterback Health Pendulum Swings the Other Way

I haven’t been shy all summer about making the Ravens my pick to win the AFC North, and ultimately, they were my No. 1 seed and Super Bowl pick for the 2023 season. They haven’t let me down yet, and despite the injury concerns starting to mount, they still have health at the position that matters the most: quarterback.

It cannot be ignored that the Ravens were leading the AFC North in December in 2021 and 2022 on the day where Lamar Jackson suffered an injury that would end his seasons. Cincinnati then ended up winning the division both years, and it won a wild card game against backup Tyler Huntley, who fumbled on a quarterback sneak for the deciding touchdown.

I liked Baltimore all summer, and I liked them in this game because the quarterback health pendulum in the AFC North is finally swinging their way. Joe Burrow had a calf injury in July and missed a lot of camp and practice time. He simply may not be healthy enough to be starting games, but he is anyway. Last week, he threw for 82 yards on 31 attempts.

This time, he was 8-of-11 for 35 yards at halftime as the Ravens played ball control well and led 13-10 at halftime. Cincinnati’s only touchdown was an 81-yard punt return touchdown. The offense simply didn’t show up yet for the Bengals this season.

But after a red zone interception to start the second half, things did improve for the Bengals. They engineered two long touchdown drives on their final 3 possessions, though there was a bad 3-and-out in between.

Meanwhile, Jackson showed his value in what I would call one of the best games of his career. He only threw for 237 yards and rushed for 54 yards, but his game management was excellent. The Ravens averaged 3.0 points per drive, a league-leading number most years, and that’s even with a missed field goal and a clock-killing drive to close out the win.

Jackson helped the Ravens overcome a 2nd-and-23 in the fourth quarter on a drive that ended with a touchdown to Nelson Agholor to take a 27-17 lead. Then after the Bengals pulled to within 27-24 with 3:28 left, Jackson did his job and put the game away. He scrambled for 12 yards on a big third-and-3. Burrow, who finished with under 225 yards for the fourth time since 2022 against Baltimore, never got the ball back in a one-score game in the fourth quarter.

Baltimore has blown too many games like this in recent years, but not on Sunday. Now they are 2-0 with a road win over the 0-2 Bengals, who feel in worse shape than they did a year ago when they lost two tight games with the Steelers and Cowboys before going on a run. Burrow is also saying he tweaked the calf injury too. We’ll see how he looks on Monday night against Aaron Donald and the Rams in a Super Bowl rematch.

Clearly, it’s not how you start but how you finish in this league. But as long as Jackson remains healthy and plays more from the pocket as he did in this game, the Ravens are the team to beat in the AFC North this year.

Chiefs at Jaguars: Does Kansas City Have… a Defense?

Given what this game could have been and what it was, this was my dud of the week. I thought Jacksonville would make it more interesting after getting swept last year. Patrick Mahomes wasn’t on a high-ankle sprain, Travis Kelce was back, and Calvin Ridley was here to make a difference for Jacksonville at home.

Yet, the Chiefs had 12 penalties for 94 yards, turned it over 3 times, and they still won 17-9.

Wait, 26 points? It’s tied for the second-lowest scoring game involving Mahomes in his career. The lowest was 13-7 against the 2021 Packers in Jordan Love’s first start. The total was 51 points, so the 25 points under the total was the 5th-largest under performance in a game with Mahomes.

Mahomes targeted 11 different receivers in the first half, which felt like overkill for a team that searches for reliable targets. Kelce barely looked like a factor in his return until he caught a touchdown in the second half.

But had the Chiefs stopped nuking drives with penalties and taken better care of the ball – add another muffed punt, fumbled completion, and Mahomes was picked on an overthrown deep ball – this would have been a rout.

But that’s why they call it gambling. Just this week I wrote on another site about trusting your gut and doubling down on picks from week to week in this league. I then completely ignored myself.

In Week 1, I faded Calvin Ridley in his first game since 2021 in favor of Christian Kirk, the reliable target for Trevor Lawrence he built great chemistry with. Of course, Kirk had 1 catch for 9 yards while Ridley torched the Colts for 8/101/1.

Instead of doubling down on Kirk, I switched to Ridley for my week’s biggest parlay, thinking he would make a difference and have 60+ yards for the Jaguars in this game (O/U 72.5). Of course, Kirk caught 11-of-14 for 110 yards while Lawrence was 2-of-8 for 36 yards to Ridley. They just could not finish plays together, and that ended up being my only losing leg on a parlay I didn’t hedge. FML.

Lawerence was only 22-of-41 for 216 yards in what I would say was his worst passing game against the Chiefs yet. Chris Jones had 1.5 sacks in his return, including a big stop on a fourth down early in the game. That did not help Jacksonville’s efforts, but compared to 2022, they went backwards on offense in this rivalry, and it does not look like they are ready to step up to the big boys in 2023. This game was only moderately close because of Kansas City’s self-inflicted mistakes with all the false starts and turnovers.

Also, just like last week against Detroit, it is wild what teams do against Mahomes out of fear. The Jaguars were down 17-9 and instead of kicking a 34-yard field goal with 4:18 left (time plus 4 clock stoppages in hand), they went for a 4th-and-12 at the Kansas City 16. Not a 4th-and-2 but a 4th-and-12. I’m not sure about that one, especially when you are down 8 and would need another possession and score anyway to win this game. If you don’t think you can stop Mahomes again, then you’re losing the game regardless. I probably kick the field goal there, especially since Lawrence’s accuracy was poor.

Sure enough, Lawrence threw incomplete to Ridley (FML) and that was that. Mahomes added to his quickly growing legacy of being the best quarterback ever in the 4-minute offense. He scrambled 14 yards for a first down, then on a pivotal 3rd-and-6 with 2:03 left, he improvised and found Skyy Moore with a deep ball for a 54-yard gain to essentially ice this one. The running game picked up one more first down to make sure it ended 17-9.

The Chiefs go into the history books again, not losing any of their last 35 games by more than 4 points.

But with games against the Bears and Jets up next, the storyline of the Chiefs having an elite defense in 2023 should continue into October. We’ll see if that holds true when the tougher tests come up later in the season. But if you get the offense back to firing on all cylinders and actually sustain a great defensive performance, then I’m not sure anyone is beating this team this year.

They are playing C+ caliber games and were a Kadarius Toney drop away from being 2-0 against a pair of division favorites.

Dolphins at Patriots: Good Enough to Lose Close – Part 2

Same headline as last week for New England, which is 0-2 for the first time since 2001 after losing to another contender at home in a one-score game. But in many ways, it was an old-school Patriots game:

  • Bill Belichick’s defense helped contain the hottest passing duo from last week, holding Tua Tagovailoa to 249 yards and only 40 for Tyreek Hill.
  • He did this at the expense of allowing Miami to get more from its ground game, which would have been fine if not for a 43-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter by Raheem Mostert.
  • The Patriots blocked a 49-yard field goal in the third quarter.
  • Rookie corner Christian Gonzalez came away with an interception in the fourth quarter when the Dolphins were at midfield with a first down.
  • An aborted snap by Miami killed a 3rd-and-1, then the Dolphins missed a 55-yard field goal that would have given them a 10-point lead with 2:14 left to all but ice it, leaving the door open for the Patriots.

But instead of a touchdown drive, the Patriots still had to put Mac Jones on the field with a bunch of No. 2 and No. 3 wideouts (at best). Bradley Chubb made his presence felt with a huge sack that set up a 2nd-and-18, which the Patriots never recovered from.

On a 4th-and-4 at Miami’s 33, Jones had to hurry a pass under pressure, and it was caught well short of the sticks. The Patriots sunk their 2022 season with an ill-advised lateral in Vegas, but this time the lateral was necessary. It almost worked too, but the offensive lineman was reviewed to come up inches short of the first down. Game over.

Just like last week against Philadelphia, the Patriots were inches away from converting a fourth down on a potential game-winning touchdown drive. I think it is possible the Patriots would have gone for 2 and the win here, but we’ll never know as they came up short again.

It wasn’t the kind of performance that should be vaulting the Dolphins up the lists of power rankings, Super Bowl odds, or Tagovailoa for MVP. But it was good enough for a win against a team that used to be harder to beat. Alas, Tagovailoa is the first quarterback to win 5 straight games against Belichick. He hasn’t played the best against his defense by any means, but this is where the AFC East is now in the 2020s.

Chargers at Titans: Nothing Has Changed for the Chargers

Chargers coach Brandon Staley wanted no part of hearing about the Jacksonville playoff loss after the Chargers fell to 0-2 with another blown lead.

Technically, Staley is right that a January playoff loss is not the reason the Chargers lost these last two games in the 2023 season. However, I don’t think he gets to avoid this narrative as his team continues to blow games it seemed to have in hand, and his defense continues to suck with the game on the line.

I would pose these questions to Staley.

Why is it Year 3 and every game still comes down to you relying on Justin Herbert to perform miracles and make sure the defense doesn’t have to come back on the field to blow it?

You say your roster has finishers, yet why aren’t any of them on defense, your specialty? In Herbert’s 5 game-winning drives last season, this is how much time was left on the clock so that your defense couldn’t find a way to blow it:

  • 4 seconds vs. Titans
  • 15 seconds vs. Cardinals
  • 0 seconds vs. Falcons
  • Walk-off in overtime vs. Broncos
  • 9:29 vs. Browns, who later missed a game-winning 53-yard field goal with 0:11 left

Congrats on the missed field goal. Your defense hasn’t produced a legitimate stop to preserve a close win since forcing the Steelers into a 4th-and-32 in 2021. By the way, that was the game you blew a 27-10 lead in the fourth quarter of, and you again relied on a Herbert touchdown pass to regain the lead.

The Titans couldn’t throw last week in New Orleans, and yet Ryan Tannehill almost couldn’t miss in Week 2 against this defense. He was 20-of-24 for 246 yards with his below-average receivers. The only issue was taking 5 sacks as the revamped line was missing rookie first-round pick Peter Skoronski.

But once again, the Chargers were in a dogfight after leading 11-0 early. Herbert’s second touchdown pass to Keenan Allen gave the Chargers a 21-17 lead with 14:38 left. On the next drive, the Chargers ran the ball on 3rd-and-4 and punted on a 4th-and-2 at their own 42. Weren’t you the 4th-down guy for a hot minute in 2021?

Later, the Titans scored a go-ahead touchdown, which was answered by a game-tying field goal to force overtime by the Chargers. Short throws and a big 3rd-down sack by Harold Landry kept the Chargers out of the end zone from the game-winning touchdown.

In overtime, Herbert threw three straight incompletions as the team missed Austin Ekeler against a Tennessee defense that loves shutting the run down. The Titans had no issues moving into range for Nick Folk to hit a 41-yard field goal to win the game 27-24.

The Chargers have lost 4 straight games, and this was actually the first time they allowed fewer than 30 points during this stretch.

At this rate, Staley will soon learn what a finisher looks like on the Chargers. It will be the person who takes him to an empty room to see the boss.

Jets at Cowboys: Back to Reality

There was a lot of wishful thinking that the Jets could salvage this season after losing Aaron Rodgers and upsetting the Bills on Monday night. But either the Cowboys are too good, or the Jets are going to be awful, because this 30-10 rout was tough to watch. The Jets basically made one play on offense, a 68-yard touchdown pass to Garrett Wilson. Otherwise, Zach Wilson was 11-of-26 for 102 yards and 3 picks.

At least the picks didn’t happen until it was 27-10 in the fourth quarter, but the Jets failed this game in the sense that they couldn’t even be competitive as the “run the ball and play great defense” team they need to be with Wilson at quarterback.

Wilson ended up accounting for 36 of the team’s 64 rushing yards. You would have thought Breece Hall could have been leaned on, but he had 4 carries for 9 yards. The fuck is that?

Defensively, the Jets forced 0 turnovers, allowed 9-of-18 on third down, and Dak Prescott (31-of-38 for 255 yards) generally did what he wanted to. CeeDee Lamb caught 11-of-13 targets for 143 yards, so it’s not like you can’t throw on these guys like they’re the 2009 Jets or something.

With 15 more Jets games to go, it’s really a shame what happened to Rodgers. This team’s brutal early schedule was going to be tough with him, but there are going to be more ugly days ahead for this team.

Dallas, my Super Bowl pick in the NFC, is looking great at 70-10 on the scoreboard, only the 7th team since 1970 to be at least plus-60 through two games. But it will be nice to see them play a real team who can hit back instead of these New York punching bags.

Oh shit, they get Arizona next too. At least they face the 49ers in Week 5. With the Eagles not impressive so far, the Cowboys and 49ers may be the best in the NFC this season.

49ers at Rams: Shanahan Continues Mastery of McVay

The 49ers have the most talented offense in the NFL and look like the most complete team so far. But after this 30-23 win, I think it’s safe to say the No. 1 thought on the minds of football fans is can Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua co-exist on the Rams and build the greatest receiving duo of all time? All these guys do is get open and catch the ball, so imagine if there were two of them.

Nacua did it again, going over 10 catches and 100 yards for the second week in a row, the only player to ever start his career like that. His 15 catches are a single-game rookie record. He also has 25 catches in his first two games, shattering Earl Cooper’s record of 19 for the 1980 49ers. Before you credit Joe Montana for running Bill Walsh’s innovative West Coast Offense for that record, it was actually Steve DeBerg at quarterback in those games. Incredibly, Cooper was just a fullback (later converted to tight end) and only caught 213 passes in 93 games in his career.

But this surprising rise of a 5th-round rookie in Nacua, who only caught 107 passes in 4 years of college football at Washington and BYU, can only be surpassed by the continued success of Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant.

Purdy is the only quarterback in NFL history to go 10-0 in the first 10 games where he threw at least 20 passes. He did not have a touchdown pass in this one, but he led the offense effectively again, and he ran for a big game-tying touchdown before halftime with 1 second left where failure would have meant no points.

The second half looked closer to last year when the 49ers harassed Stafford into sacks and turnovers. They did it again, picking off a pair of passes. The big one came with the Rams down 27-20 with 4:58 left. While the 49ers went three-and-out after that pick, they were already in the red zone and added a field goal for a 30-20 lead.

Eventually, the Rams ended up kicking a 38-yard field goal on the final snap that only accomplished screwing over bettors who had 49ers -7.5 in this 30-23 final.

The Rams did not have a play longer than 20 yards, but you have to hope they can get Kupp and Nacua going together in a few weeks. Stafford’s ability to lock onto a receiver may be unmatched seeing as how the only two 1,900-yard receivers in NFL history (Calvin Johnson and Cooper Kupp) had Stafford at quarterback. It can be a blessing and a curse but imagine if he finds a way to use both receivers together.

Despite the loss, Rams fans should feel better about this season than they did two weeks ago. McVay can still coach, but unfortunately, Shanahan continues getting the best of him.

Commanders at Broncos: Did They Hire the 7-9 Version of Sean Payton?

When the Broncos were up 21-3, I figured I could get away with a single paragraph recap of how Sean Payton got Russell Wilson to hit some deep balls with his new toy (Marvin Mims), and it was an easy first win for Denver. But nope, they blew a league-high 7th fourth-quarter lead since 2022. The 18-point blown lead is the largest in Wilson’s career, and he took 7 sacks and his lost fumble in the second quarter was the turning of the tide in this one.

Washington hung in there with Sam Howell passing for 299 yards against what was supposed to be a strong secondary. The Commanders seemed to get stronger after Logan Thomas took a cheap shot from Kareem Jackson on a fourth-and-goal touchdown before halftime to cut the lead to 21-11. Denver’s offense continued to fall apart from there while the Commanders were able to take the lead for good early in the fourth quarter just as they did a week ago against the Cardinals.

Denver hurt itself with another penalty to wipe out a three-and-out, which Washington turned into a touchdown drive and 35-24 lead. The Wilson-led offense took a while to get a field goal to make it 35-27, then used timeouts to get the ball back with 48 seconds, needing 87 yards.

It will go down as a forgotten one-minute drill that worked out for a touchdown after an incredible tipped Hail Mary was caught from 50 yards out with no time left. But instead of forcing the third overtime game of the day, the Broncos had a specific play design that needed to go to Courtland Sutton, and Wilson’s pass was not caught.

I think you could easily argue defensive pass interference, which would have put the ball at the 1-yard line and a retry. But story of Payton’s career, he couldn’t get an obvious DPI flag in a big spot.

After losing winnable home games to the Raiders and Commanders and going to Miami next, the Broncos could easily be staring at an 0-3 start.

Giants at Cardinals: Was That Tanking?

The battle for New York’s worst football team was in rare form with the Giants doing their best to topple the Jets, who were simultaneously getting crushed by Dallas. Always nice to see something you’ve never seen before, and the Giants did that for those of us born after Alien came out in 1979.

The 2023 Giants were outscored 60-0 through six quarters of action this year. That has only been topped since the 1970 merger by the 1978 Baltimore Colts, who were outscored 86-0 early into Game 3 of their season before they finally got on the board. Worse, the Cardinals were the team doing this to New York. The same Cardinals who are projected to finish with the worst record and No. 1 pick.

But for a half, the Cardinals didn’t seem interested in Caleb Williams. Not when Josh Dobbs was running through defenders on a 23-yard touchdown run. But while we were making fun of the Giants, a switch appeared to be flipped at halftime. These teams came out much differently, and the Giants were able to explode for 31 points in the second half alone to come back and win the game after trailing 28-7 with 9:34 left in the third quarter.

My criticism of Jonathan Gannon’s defense in Philadelphia was that good, smart quarterbacks could tear his scheme apart with quick, short passes. Suddenly, that pass rush doesn’t get there at all, and the coverage is soft as he just wants to avoid the big plays. Well, the Giants immediately came out in the third and hit a 58-yard bomb to rookie speedster Jalin Hyatt. It also hurts when you don’t have players like Haason Reddick, Fletcher Cox, and Darius Slay to make your defense better.

Daniel Jones added a few occasional scrambles, but he basically picked apart the Cardinals on his way to 321 yards passing. He was only sacked 3 times for 9 yards, so the pass rush did not repeat the success it had against Washington last week.

The Cardinals were a missed field goal away from scoring on their first 6 drives, but they were scoreless on the final 4 drives. While James Conner had a big game with over 100 rushing yards, it is hard to say it didn’t look like this team was mailing it in and accepting defeat after the Giants tied it at 28.

With 4:25 left, the Cardinals went 1-yard Conner run, 3-yard Conner run, back-to-back false starts on the same player, and then a failed completion for 5 yards before a three-and-out punt. Weak.

Jones drove the Giants into field goal range from there and Graham Gano was good from 34 yards away with only 19 seconds left. Dobbs’ Hail Mary was knocked away incomplete and the game was over.

Maybe the Cardinals are not going to be 2-15 bad after blowing a pair of 4th-quarter leads to start this season. But when you look at the schedule, they might not win until November now after blowing this opportunity.

But maybe that’s perfectly fine with this franchise.

Seahawks at Lions: Detroit Better Hope This Isn’t Another Tie-Breaker

These teams play fun games. Last year, it was a 48-45 shootout, but this one was better since there were actually lead changes. Seattle led wire-to-wire last year, and that win was the main reason the 9-8 record was good enough for the No. 7 seed ahead of Detroit. The Lions better hope that doesn’t happen again after losing another winnable home game to this team.

The best quarterback duel of Week 2 was naturally Geno Smith vs. Jared Goff as everyone expected. Both were sharp, but Goff’s pick-six, which ended a nearly 400-attempt streak without a pick, looked like it would doom the Lions, putting them in a 31-21 hole with 8:04 left.

But Goff came right back to lead a touchdown drive, then Smith took a horrific sack on a third down back to his own 3, helping to set Goff up at the 50 with 1:44 left. However, Seattle’s defense held after it seemed like Detroit was content with overtime.

The Seahawks won the toss and received first. Just like the team used to do best in the early days of Russell Wilson a decade ago, the offense drove right down the field for a game-winning touchdown to end it without the opponent having a chance. Tyler Lockett’s second touchdown of the day secured the 37-31 win.

In the end, the right team won. The Lions were minus-3 in turnovers and turned it over on downs twice. The Seahawks missed 2 field goals in the second quarter too.

There is some “live by the sword, die by the sword” with coach Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness. Should the Lions have gone for it on a 4th-and-2 at their own 45 while leading 21-17 with 32 seconds left in the third quarter? They failed and the Seahawks only had to go 45 yards for the go-ahead touchdown, which they scored. Traditionally, teams punt there, hope to back them up, and protect the lead. Get the job done on your next offensive possession, and it’s not like points were guaranteed on a first down at midfield if you convert.

But it is what it is. The Lions are 1-1, winning a game they easily could have lost and losing a game they could have easily won. They just better hope they remain the team to beat in the NFC North and don’t have to compete with Seattle for another wild card tie-breaker.

Packers at Falcons: Hamstrung in Atlanta

The Falcons made this a lot harder than it needed to be. The spread swung from Falcons +1.5 to Falcons -3 due to the Packers not having their best running back (Aaron Jones), best wide receiver (Christian Watson), and best offensive lineman (David Bakhtiari). Even though Jordan Love was again very aggressive, he avoided any picks, but he did throw for just 151 yards. His running game only hooked him up with 61 yards, so the loss of Jones was crucial.

Running powered the Atlanta offense again with 211 yards on the ground, though Desmond Ridder did run for 39 yards and a huge touchdown himself on a 4th-down call while the Falcons trailed 24-12 in the fourth quarter. He also threw for 237 yards this week.

The red zone is where Atlanta made life difficult on themselves (2-for-5 on touchdowns). The offense was fortunate the defense held Green Bay without a first down on its 3 possessions in the fourth quarter.

Head coach Arthur Smith also made quite the gambling by going for a 4th-and-1 at the Green Bay 23 with 2:08 left in a 24-22 game. Granted, no one wants to kick a field goal and give an offense nearly 2 full minutes to get a game-winning field goal. But a failure there on a quick snap and there was a fair chance he’d never see the ball again. It almost looked like Smith would go for it again on a fourth down to really ice the game and make the field goal the last snap, but he kicked the 25-yard field goal with 57 seconds left.

Still, that is plenty of time to get into range these days, but Love was unable to get a first down. His pass on 4th down was not bad, but the receiver looked like he trapped it, so it was ruled incomplete. Even if he caught it, an illegal shift penalty would have negated the gain and set up 4th-and-15.

Fun win for Atlanta but being the home team and taking on a team without three of its best players definitely helped this week.

Bears at Buccaneers: Justin Fields Is Not a Serious QB

I find it hard to believe Justin Fields’ average time to throw was 3.03 seconds, the 6th-slowest time in Week 2 (source: Next Gen Stats). Every time I saw a clip of him today he was holding the ball forever and taking awful sacks. He ended up taking 6 sacks and the running game was held in check again with only 67 yards, including just 3 from Fields despite his short touchdown run.

While D.J. Moore had 104 yards and Chase Claypool showed up to catch a touchdown, it was still a poor offensive performance. The Buccaneers won out in yards 437-236, but it was still only a 20-17 game with 2:24 left.

Like last year, Fields only needed a field goal and couldn’t get in position. He tried to throw a screen pass to his running back and Shaq Barrett made a great play to snatch the ball for a pick-six.

You can certainly give credit to the defender for blowing this up, but that looked like a play that was going to gain no positive yards anyway. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield efficiently threw for 317 yards with 171 of them going to Mike Evans. The Buccaneers have scored 20 points in back-to-back games, something they did once all last season with the King of Kings at quarterback.

It was my prediction that Mayfield would outplay Tom Brady this year, but the Bucs would have a worse record because of what will happen in close games without the LOAT. That could still happen. Plus, beating up on the Bears and Vikings (two awful defenses in 2022) is not the best argument for this being anything but fool’s gold. But Mayfield is making this work so far.

Raiders at Bills: Buffalo Can Take a Deep Breath

Bills fans may have been nervous after the Raiders marched right down the field for a touchdown to start the game. But that was the highlight of the day for Vegas. Josh Allen played a very safe, controlled, and efficient game (31-of-37 for 274 yards and 3 TD) and spread the ball around well. The run defense held Josh Jacobs to -2 yards on 9 carries. They intercepted Jimmy Garoppolo twice, including a play where Matt Milano just flat out stole the ball from Jacobs. James Cook ran for 123 yards even if he padded a bit with a 36-yard run while the Bills led 38-10 at the two-minute warning.

But it was an all-around dominant team performance from the Bills, who might still be the biggest threat to the Chiefs in getting back to the Super Bowl. We’ll see how Baltimore and Cincinnati shake out.

Colts at Texans: Steichen’s First Win

When the Colts hired Shane Steichen and drafted Anthony Richardson, the logical connection was always that he could develop him on the Jalen Hurts curve that he did in Philadelphia. But maybe something a lot of us forgot here is that this means Richardson could be an effective goal-line rusher and score a lot of touchdowns like Hurts did last year on his way to a record.

I noticed it right away in Week 1 when it looked like Richardson was going to score 2 rushing touchdowns against Jacksonville before he left the game injured on the last drive. That is why Richardson to score twice (+1400 at FanDuel) was one of my favorite props this week. I just didn’t expect him to score on runs of 18 and 15 yards in the game’s first 5:47.

I also didn’t think he’d leave the game with a concussion suffered on the second one.

It is not a good sign at all that Richardson was unable to finish either of his first two games, but for what little we have seen, the potential is exciting. Even Hurts only has 3-of-33 career touchdown runs from longer than 10 yards out, so Richardson exploding like that looked closer to a young Vince Young (2006) or Lamar Jackson (2019). Just hope he can stay healthy, but Gardner Minshew was a heck of an addition as someone who can step in and sling it in a familiar system. Minshew only entered the game at 12:45 in the second quarter and still passed for 114 yards in the quarter, which is almost as many as Joe Burrow had for Cincinnati in his first six quarters this year (117).

As for Houston, it was a tough day with most of the starting offensive line out and no help from the running game from C.J. Stroud, who took 6 sacks and had to play from a double-digit deficit almost the entire game. But even in that suboptimal situation, he was 30-of-47 for 384 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no picks. He did lose one of two fumbles, similar to last week. But it is a good learning experience for the rookie.

After not getting a win over Houston last year, the Colts should feel more optimistic about the Steichen era after Sunday’s 31-20 win. But for a fanbase that has seen health problems end the tenures of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, it is a worrisome start for Richardson in that area.

Next week: Not looking great.

NFL Week 2 Predictions: Playoff Revenge Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The NFL’s Week 2 schedule already features some heavyweight matchups, but are these teams playing well enough for these games to be as good as possible? We are already seeing major injury concerns for several teams, which is unfortunate at such an early point in the year.

But one of my favorite stats this week is that the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals are all 0-1 after entering the season as the Super Bowl favorites in their conference. That has not happened since the NFC did it in 1982, and none of the Cowboys, 49ers, or Rams made the Super Bowl (won by Washington). Of course, it ended up being a 9-game strike season after the players went on strike following Week 2, so maybe that’s not the best comparison to make this year. All I know is the Chiefs (drops) and Bills (turnovers) largely had self-inflicted losses against teams that had serious playoff aspirations. The Bengals did their annual disappearing act against the Browns, but 24-3 and Joe Burrow passing for 82 yards feels like something potentially different this time. We’ll see if the Ravens, my Super Bowl pick, can capitalize this week.

Bengals-Ravens is just one of the big matchups this week. The Jaguars will also try to get playoff revenge on the Chiefs after adding Calvin Ridley to hopefully have the firepower necessary to deal with that team, which should be getting Travis Kelce and Chris Jones back. The Lions can also get some revenge on the Seahawks for last year’s 48-45 loss that provided the tie-breaker for Seattle to get the No. 7 seed.

This week’s articles:

Week 1 Story: Why were offenses so bad in Week 1? I look at everything from the injuries, rain, high number of division games, and the main culprit being the historic lack of experienced quarterbacks starting for teams they have multiple years of experience with.

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 2 at 365Scores – I’m pissed I went 0-7 on this last week when so many of my other articles were strong (6-1 on prime-time picks, 5-1 on computer picks, 2-1 on best bets, and 6-4 on player props)

NFL Week 2 Predictions

I’m taking the push for TNF because the article I wrote Wednesday night had a pick of Eagles -6, and I should have knew something fishy was going on when it was changing to -5.5 on FanDuel just before kickoff. Having said that, the Eagles covered Week 1 in NE when they really didn’t play well enough to deserve it, and they wouldn’t have deserved it in this game either. The Vikings lost 4 fumbles, including one of those stupid through the end zone plays, and the Eagles again looked rough in the passing game outside of two bombs to DeVonta Smith. But they are 2-0. The secondary is just lacking with lost players and injuries right now.

Home favorites are only 2-8-1 ATS this year. Rough start.

I found myself liking the regression there with these first four picks, but really I just liked Atlanta all week with Green Bay’s hamstring injuries, the Lions to light up Seattle, the Bills to get right against the Raiders, and I am fading Chicago after last week’s garbage performance.

Then by the time I got to the Tennessee game I figured I need to throw an upset in there as I just feel like that is a tricky game for the Chargers, who are unlikely to have Austin Ekeler. They probably wouldn’t run much on the Titans anyway because of that defensive scheme, but really my favorite picks for that game are the under 45.5 and the over in Herbert’s pass attempts (38.5).

Last year the Colts couldn’t beat the Texans, but I’m just basing things off what I saw in Week 1 and I feel like Richardson can move his offense better than Stroud and use his legs for a win. I really like Richardson anytime TD scorer again this week.

Big AFC games: I’m going with the Ravens and Chiefs in close ones. Maybe 27-24 for Kansas City and 23-20 for Baltimore. I just don’t think Joe Burrow is healthy enough on that calf and he was not effective against the Ravens last year. It sucks that Baltimore already has a lot of injuries, but it sounds like Mark Andrews is playing. Most importantly, Lamar is there, and it’s time this team gets to have him in a big game. As for the Jaguars, I like what Ridley adds to the offense, but I’ m still going to trust the Chiefs with their other 2 elite players back.

Good win for the Rams last week but McVay has been owned by Shanahan outside of one quarter since 2019. I really like Brock Purdy to throw over 1.5 TDs again, something he’s done in 8-of-9 games when he throws 20+ passes. Remember, the Rams were a defense Garoppolo usually had good numbers against. Now the Rams have Aaron Donald and a lot of random starters. I like Purdy to keep rolling here and Stafford to not get the same protection he had in Seattle.

NYG-ARI is a toilet bowl I wouldn’t put much money on. Brian Daboll is 7-0 ATS after a loss, but after seeing how Arizona sacked Sam Howell 6 times and what the Giants did, I’m at least hedging my bets and having the Giants escaping with a 1-to-4 point win in that one. They could lose it too. You don’t really think Arizona is going 0-17 yet do you? They almost clipped Washington last week.

NYJ-DAL is the other New York trap game after what happened last week. Obviously, Dallas should roll to an easy win over Zach Wilson, but something about trusting the NY defense here makes me think it’ll at least be close as long as Wilson does not gift them turnovers. It’s not like Dallas was on fire offensively in Week 1. I also remember Sam Darnold beating Dallas in another year with big playoff expectations. If anyone is capable of screwing this up, it’s Dallas.

Coin flips for DEN & MIA games but I like Jerry Jeudy coming back and the NE OL is really injured. Mostly just curious to see if Belichick holds Tyreek under 100 again on SNF.

Monday double-header: I think the Saints get their first game-winning drive from Derek Carr and the Panthers lose a 52nd straight game when trailing in the 4th quarter. As for the Pittsburgh game, my best bet is Steelers over 9.5 1H points. They can’t be worse than last week, right? I’m picking them for the upset too just out of history. The Steelers have won 20 straight home games on MNF (9-0 under Tomlin). They usually deliver as a home underdog, last week aside, but I also think the 49ers are way better than Cleveland. Maybe T.J. Watt can force Watson into strip-sacks that set up short fields for the offense. But if the Steelers implode in this one then I’m quickly fading them going forward.

I did say watch them go from being the hottest offense in August to one of the worst in September when real games are played.

But I’ll be back Monday morning with the recap of Sunday’s action.

2023 NFL Predictions

~ Scott ~ 16 Comments

In most NFL offseasons, I come up with my Super Bowl vision for the upcoming season rather early. But this year, I really did not figure things out until a few days ago. Even then, I am not loving the pick.

As a reminder, here is my past decade of preseason predictions. One of these old Super Bowl picks is something I will reuse this year too.

My predictions were not good last year, though I guess I should have trusted my gut on the Eagles going 14-3 with an easy schedule. I also seem to follow an up-and-down pattern.

In 2021, I was better than ever, only off by an average of 1.28 wins for each team and getting 28 teams within 2 games of their final record. But last year, I was off by 2.78, tied with the 2020 COVID year for my worst, and I only had 14 teams within 2 games of their record.

Let’s just say my faith in Russell Wilson (Broncos) and Matt Ryan (Colts) working out for their AFC teams was rejected by the script writers. My vision for Buffalo being the team to beat worked out for most of the year, but after the Von Miller injury and the traumatic Damar Hamlin experience, the Bills looked emotionally wiped out by the time they lost (with ease) to the Bengals in the divisional round.

But I think choosing this year’s theme is easy and can be summed up in one word: Uncertainty.

Sure, Super Bowl 58 might just come down to picking one from the Chiefs/Bengals/Bills to take on one from the Eagles/49ers/Cowboys, but the rest of the league is grappling with a ton of uncertainty as we continue to see record quarterback movement, and not many head coaches are established with their teams as well.

But the quarterback experiments going on in 2023 are something we are not used to seeing at this level. Aside from Aaron Rodgers returning for a 19th season, the old guard is basically gone. We are in a new era, and there is already a game in Week 1 where teams might be starting Sam Howell against Joshua Dobbs (or something called Clayton Tune).

How many of these guys make it the full year? The 2022 season only had 10 quarterbacks start every game, the fewest since 1999. That even includes Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, who both played 16 games as their game against each other was cancelled after Damar Hamlin was taken to the hospital. It was the first time since 1935 that the NFL cancelled a game for non-strike reasons.

There are 15 quarterbacks this season who have fewer than 16 starts with their current team. Throw in the Arizona situation to replace the recovering Kyler Murray, and there are 9 quarterbacks with fewer than 16 starts in the NFL period.

This is a lot of uncertainty and a lot of learning to do about these new players as well as the old players in new situations. We were spoiled a bit by the Buccaneers and Rams winning Super Bowls right away with franchise quarterbacks. After Ryan and Wilson last year, you should not even assume Rodgers will be a hit in New York.

People can make their predictions, and maybe they’ll look good on them, but I would be suspicious of anyone speaking with confidence that they know Jordan Love will be a bust or Desmond Ridder will be a good one in Atlanta. We just don’t know. Throw in Howell in Washington, and there is a chance at least one of those new NFC quarterbacks will pop this year and look good. But we really know less than usual this year.

Not to mention, the 2022 season was already a historically weird year.

Oh yeah, it may have ended with a Super Bowl between No. 1 seeds, and you will accuse me of saying this about every year. It is true that each NFL season comes with its own unique features, but last year really was a wild ride, and I am not just talking about the Vikings. You know, the team that pulled off the most shocking fumble recovery touchdown since the Miracle at the Meadowlands and set a record with a 33-0 comeback on their way to tying the record with 8 fourth-quarter comebacks in a season.

But the whole league was in comeback mode at record levels:

  • 50 teams won games after trailing by 10 points at any point in the regular season (single-season record; old record was 43)
  • 141 games were decided by 7 or fewer points (single-season record)
  • 156 games were decided by 8 or fewer points (single-season record)
  • 85 fourth-quarter comeback wins, including playoffs (single-season record; old record was 73)
  • The percentage of games with a 4QC opportunity (61.25%) was at its highest since 2013

Regression could be rough for Minnesota in close games this year, but what about the teams who kept blowing leads like the Raiders, Broncos, and Ravens? It probably is not a coincidence that Trevor Lawrence and Kenny Pickett were getting their comeback reputations built by beating the Raiders and Ravens late.

Speaking of the Steelers and Jaguars, it was a weird season for a lot of teams turning poor starts into strong finishes, or vice versa. Streaking was off the charts in 2022:

  • The 2022 Dolphins and 2022 Jaguars are 2-of-9 playoff teams in NFL history to have a 5-game losing streak during the season. They are only the 5th and 6th playoff teams to have 5-game streaks of losing and winning during the same regular season.
  • Four teams made the playoffs with a negative scoring differential in 2022 (Vikings, Giants, Dolphins, Buccaneers) – the most in a non-strike season in NFL history.
  • The 2022 Vikings (13-4) are the only team to win more than 11 games in a season with a negative scoring differential.
  • Only four teams in NFL history started 2-6 and finished with 9+ wins, and three of them happened last year (2022 Steelers, Lions, and Jaguars all finished 9-8).
  • The 2022 Titans join the 1994 Eagles as the only teams to win 7 games before ending their season on a losing streak of 7 games.
  • For the first time since the Steelers and Raiders in 1976, the playoffs had two teams on an active 10-game winning streak, but the Bengals (10) and 49ers (12) both lost on Championship Sunday.
  • For the first time since the merger, three teams who won 12-plus games (Rams, Buccaneers, Packers) in one conference all finished with a losing record the next season.
  • The 2022 Rams set an NFL record for the worst record (5-12) by a defending Super Bowl champion.

Did I mention the last pick in the draft almost went on an undefeated run to the Super Bowl before his elbow exploded?

So, you expect me to give you good predictions for 2023 and figure things out like if Sam Howell will be great, or if the Jets are getting a legitimate Rodgers when I still don’t even know what to think about so many things from 2022.

Is Brock Purdy really that guy? Is Jimmy Garoppolo going to get exposed in Las Vegas, or is Josh McDaniels another QB guru like Kyle Shanahan who will get the best out of him? Is Trevor Lawrence the real deal, or are we just overlooking how his defense won the division title by making Joshua Dobbs fumble and that he threw four picks before he threw a touchdown in that playoff game? Is Tua really that good, concussions aside, or did he just beat up on bad teams with the best speed at wideout in the NFL? Is Russell Wilson just cooked?

I tried my best this year. Since late July, I have been doing three full-length previews for every team except Buffalo, so that is a total of 95 published team previews at three different sites. The 365Scores previews are more or less my “official” previews as they are all longer (most around 2500 words) and have more research to them than the ones at BMR and OT. But practically every preview is 1500+ words, so that is 5000+ words per team, which is why I’m fatigued over previews and not looking forward to summarizing them all 32 more times here.

But I have to keep myself to a standard, and I have been posting these previews every year on here since 2012. I will include links to all the previews and you can choose to read how much you want. I did my best to not have a ton of overlap.

Note: The words written after each preview link may not necessarily reflect what is written in said link. You can only trust that the 365Scores previews have extra research. I’m just giving my thoughts on the teams here, 48 hours before opening night. Also, any over/under picks in these articles were subject to change as I made my final record predictions over the weekend after going through the schedule.

AFC WEST

1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)

365Scores Preview: The 95th and final team preview I wrote is the most epic one at over 5,500 words. I go through why the Chiefs were never supposed to win last year’s Super Bowl until they did in a truly one-of-a-kind manner that is the defining moment for Mahomes’ legacy right now. I also look at how the offense adapted without Tyreek Hill, and why the issues we thought would make the team take a step back in 2022 didn’t materialize, and how they could show up this season, a year late.

BMR Preview: Well, I wrote this blurb before I went to bed Tuesday morning, only to wake up to the news about Travis Kelce’s injury. Hopefully he only misses a game at best, because I did write back in July how a Kelce injury would make things scary for this offense. The Chiefs already lost offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., but I’d sooner be worried about a Chris Jones holdout taking real games away for the defense than to be concerned about those two departures. It just stinks that Kadarius Toney is so unreliable. He’s the only wide receiver who could turn a Netflix & Chill evening into a trip to the ICU.

OT Preview: No team has repeated since the 2003-04 Patriots, so this is the longest drought in history without a repeat champion. But expecting one team to reach a 4th Super Bowl in 5 years is tough, especially with the AFC getting deeper and the Chiefs have a lot of tough games. Only the 1990-93 Bills (0-4) and the 2014-18 Patriots (3-1) pulled off that Super Bowl run, but the Chiefs are down for making history. They have gone 33 straight games without losing by more than 4 points, two games shy of a new record.

2. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8)

365Scores Preview: This preview tells the story of how the Chargers ignoring a fatigued Gerald Everett in Week 2 in Kansas City could have been the butterfly effect of the season, changing everything from the AFC West winner to the MVP to the Super Bowl outcome. Despite holding a lead in the fourth quarter of every Justin Hebert vs. Patrick Mahomes matchup, the Chargers are just 1-4 in those games. Herbert has even led a go-ahead drive in 4-of-5 games, including three touchdown passes after the 2:30 mark.

But the Chargers saved their ultimate Chargering act for the playoffs in Jacksonville, blowing a 27-0 lead. These losses in front of a national audience have added to the perception that Herbert is not clutch or as good as Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or even Trevor Lawrence. But I nip that in the bud here by examining how he’s the only one of that group who was great as a rookie, he’s the only one who has to share a division with Mahomes (which limits his success), he’s the only one who has never had a solid defense, and he’s never been given a great, young receiver to flourish with like they have all had.

BMR Preview: The Chargers adding Kellen Moore at offensive coordinator is a good move that should be beneficial to Herbert and Austin Ekeler. The Chargers will continue to build around the pass, but they will hopefully air it out more, and the receivers must stay healthy. Quinten Johnston from TCU is good injury insurance, but I’m not sure if the team shouldn’t have drafted Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison instead.

OT Preview: If the Chargers are going to return to the playoffs, they need a big effort from the defense again in Week 1 against Miami, a potential tie-breaker scenario can come from that game. Last year, the Chargers won 10 games but the only team they beat who did not lose 10+ games was Miami.  We’ll see how the defense responds as Joey Bosa has not played a full game since Week 2, and corner J.C. Jackson was a major bust in his first year with the team.

3. Denver Broncos (9-8)

365Scores Preview: I am very excited to see how this union of Sean Payton and Russell Wilson plays out. If you look at NFL history, old quarterbacks simply do not get three chances to prove they are still good. If Wilson is still lousy under Payton this year, I am not sure what the team can do. The defense may also regress, but as long as the offense improves dramatically and the team finishes with a winning record, I like Payton for Coach of the Year.

BMR Preview: Forget ending the 15-game losing streak to the Chiefs. Can this team at least beat the Raiders once in the 2020s? Those division games will be critical, but oddly enough, some of Wilson’s best moments in 2022 came against the Chiefs. If Payton can get him back on track, this is a team that could be due for positive regression after blowing a handful of fourth-quarter leads last year. They also get some key players back healthy like left tackle Garett Bolles and running back Javonte Williams. I also am curious to see if Marvin Mims can be a big play threat as a rookie.

OT Preview: Do not expect Russ to turn into a 5,000-yard passer under Payton. He is not Drew Brees, but fortunately, Payton had some experience at starting other quarterbacks in his final years with the Saints, including Taysom Hill (if he counts as a real quarterback). One thing that concerns me is Jerry Jeudy’s injury, because he was by far the weapon Wilson played best with last year. They need to make sure he can stay healthy if this is going to work as the Broncos have a lot of good offenses to compete with for playoff spots this year.

4. Las Vegas Raiders (7-10)

365Scores Preview: The Raiders were comical in the way they would forget games are 60 minutes long last year. They set some records for blowing leads, including 5 losses after leading by double digits in the second half. In all, the Raiders blew 6 fourth-quarter leads to lead the NFL in 2022, and that does not include the Kansas City game where they gave up 4 touchdowns to Travis Kelce on 25 receiving yards in blowing a 17-point lead.

BMR Preview: I also looked at the impressive but polarizing career for Jimmy Garoppolo, who reunites with Josh McDaniels. I do not believe Garoppolo is as great as his stats say, but I also believe he cannot be a bum and luck into those numbers over this large of a sample size. I think he could be a better fit than Derek Carr was.

OT Preview: Speaking of Carr, it really shocked me that he threw 8 touchdown passes of 30-plus yards to Davante Adams, the same number Aaron Rodgers had to Davante in 8 seasons together. That play-action and running game can be special for this offense. Now if only the defense can find some help for Maxx Crosby and be more respectable this year. This team can absolutely win more games, but the schedule is going to make it harder to do better for the playoffs. Still, I think over 6.5 wins is one of the best bets this year.

NFC WEST

1. San Francisco 49ers (12-5)

365Scores Preview: Is Brock Purdy the new late-round wunderkind or is he damaged rookie goods like RG3? It usually is a great sign for career success when a rookie quarterback plays well, and Purdy certainly did that last year even if he got away with his share of dropped picks. But when injury comes into play like it did for RG3 and Greg Cook, that can ruin a career. Purdy has to prove he can overcome the elbow surgery, and that his last season was legitimate. This can go anywhere from him getting benched for Sam Darnold to winning MVP, but having the most uniquely talented set of skill players in a great system and a top defense should make the 49ers a division winner again.

BMR Preview: I am not concerned about defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans going to Houston and taking safety Jimmie Ward with him. This is still a ridiculously talented defense at all levels, and besides, the 49ers get 4 games with the Cardinals and Rams.

OT Preview: The 49ers may be a risky Super Bowl pick and I do feel like trusting the Eagles and Cowboys more, but it is hard to name any other team in the conference that should be better this year. It is a 3-horse race, and the 49ers will face both this regular season with a chance to get a No. 1 seed. Just have to hope this QB situation does not backfire in the worst way this year. The Garoppolo safety blanket is gone for Shanahan.

2. Seattle Seahawks (8-9)

365Scores Preview: Geno Smith’s career arc is very unique since getting punched by a teammate in 2015 basically derailed his true third season as a starter. He made the most of last year’s opportunity, but I’m still lukewarm on the Seahawks being legit. They were basically a .500 team that was fortunate to make two comebacks against the Rams (who did not have their best trio of players in either game), or else both teams would have finished 7-10. Seattle’s only big winning streak (4-0) was also something that included a sweep of the Cardinals and a win over the Giants. Just not impressed enough with this team to predict more this year, but I did take a fun look at old quarterbacks to break out and found most stay close in team record the following year, hence 8-9 for Seattle from me.

BMR Preview: The Seahawks have not had a top 10 defense since 2016. That would help them out, but I just don’t see it after bringing back Bobby Wagner and drafting a corner in the top 5. Personally, I think Jalen Carter would have been more interesting there, but I understand why Pete Carroll would be hesitant to get a guy who may not love the game like he should. But when you’re in your 70s, taking the best talent out there is also enticing.

OT Preview: I think the Seahawks drafted the right wide receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but he is hurt to start the year and should not be more than a WR3 in 2023 unless Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf gets hurt. With the way this team struggled to beat the 49ers last year, I’m just not sold they can leapfrog them this year.

3. Los Angeles Rams (4-13)

365Scores Preview: I can remember earlier this summer when I had the Rams going ahead of Seattle, then I took a closer look at the roster. What the hell is this team? It’s Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald, and 50 NPCs. Kupp even has a hamstring injury already and may miss Week 1. It makes sense that the Rams would have the worst season ever for a defending champion, but the fall from grace is still crazy to see.

BMR Preview: The Rams had 8 defenders play 700+ snaps last year and all but one of them is gone this year. I’ve never seen anything like that. On the bright side, the Rams have a 2024 first-round pick, and it may be awfully high.

OT Preview: The good news is the Cardinals are even worse. Or maybe that’s bad news, because if you’re going to have a terrible season, might as well swing for the fences and get that No. 1 pick.

4. Arizona Cardinals (2-15)

365Scores Preview: Is Arizona trying to tank, and what should the tank campaign name be? I like “Crumble for Caleb” a lot. But this team is going to be unwatchable this year. I did my best to inject some humor and insults in this preview for the team with easily the worst Super Bowl odds and lowest over/under win total (4.5, maybe down to 3.5) this year.

BMR Preview: Clearly, I have Arizona making a real run at that No. 1 pick, which is presumably USC quarterback Caleb Williams. Hell, they might even get the No. 2 pick since they own Houston’s pick for the Will Anderson trade. Maybe they can get Marvin Harrison Jr. too.

OT Preview: But you may be surprised to know that just 2-of-22 teams in the 32-team era had the worst preseason win total and actually earned the No. 1 pick. That was the 2016 Browns (drafted Myles Garrett) and 2020 Jaguars (drafted Trevor Lawrence). But when you are releasing Colt McCoy and deciding between Joshua Dobbs and rookie Clayton Tune before Week 1, you are not taking this seriously. For the record, I bashed the Jonathan Gannon signing when it happened as I don’t think he’s a good coordinator. His record will likely back up he’s a lousy coach this year, but he could luck into quite a prospect in Williams next year.

AFC EAST

1. Buffalo Bills (12-5)

365Scores Preview: One of my earliest previews in July, I detail the emotional rollercoaster the Bills went on last year as their season as Super Bowl favorites crashed with their worst loss in a season and a half (27-10 to Cincy). Maybe it was one bad game, but if that is how their matchups with the Bengals are going to go, they have a long way to improve with that one. At least they know how to beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead.

BMR Preview: But I really do believe people are overlooking how the Damar Hamlin situation drained this team, and Von Miller’s injury was too much to overcome as they lacked a pass rush after he was lost. This team could have a redemption story this year. It happens often that teams shake off devastating playoff losses and win a Super Bowl the next year. I also think the early schedule for the Jets is brutal, so I still like Buffalo to win the AFC East despite many wanting to pick this team to fall off. I refuse to do it yet, and I did like the draft pick of Dalton Kincaid. Maybe when the big matchups come late in the year, the defense can have guys like Von and Tre’Davious White healthy unlike the last two seasons. Remember, you don’t always win with your best team. You win with the one that had the best circumstances.

2. New York Jets (12-5)

365Scores Preview: This should be fun. The team with the first 4,000-yard passer in 1967 seeks a second in 2023 with the quarterback who last made the Super Bowl in 2010. But that 12-season stretch was also the last time the Jets were in the playoffs, so why not party like it’s 2010 again? Giving Aaron Rodgers his best defense since maybe 2010 would be a huge deal, and this team clearly just needed a solid quarterback last year to make the playoffs. They ended the year on a 6-game slide after starting 7-4.

BMR Preview: This should be the year the Jets end the 14-game losing streak against New England. But the schedule is fascinating here as the Jets have a brutal run in the first 6 games before the bye. It would not be shocking if they are 2-4 and hearing it from the media, but I think you should just stay the course with this team. The schedule will ease up and they will play some of their best football down the stretch going into the playoffs where anything can happen.

OT Preview: There is no doubt a lot of expectations on Rodgers, but I think he can win MVP as this team elevating its passing game will largely be credited to him. He has some receivers from Green Bay along for the ride, he has his embattled coordinator (Nathaniel Hackett) who was a bum in Denver, but he might be one of those guys who is good at being just a coordinator. This should help the process, but Rodgers will have to overcome that early schedule and hang in there. I don’t love the Super Bowl chances this year as I think the other teams have an experience edge and I’m still not sure what to make of Robert Saleh. But for a change, the Jets should have a passing game and be an interesting watch.

365Scores Preview: The rookie year for Mike McDaniel in Miami was a success as he made the playoffs and got Tyreek Hill to help Tua Tagovailoa have a breakout season where he led the NFL in many passing efficiency categories. Unfortunately, multiple concussions and Miami’s early mismanagement of them ended his season before the playoffs. Tua could be a darkhorse MVP candidate if he stays healthy this year.

3. Miami Dolphins (9-8)

BMR Preview: It was a weird season with the Dolphins alternating between winning and losing streaks of 3 and 5 games. Some of that was tied to Tua’s health, but he also lost his last four starts when the competition got tougher.

OT Preview: While McDaniel comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, this team looks closer to the Sean McVay and Rams way of doing things. They are very top-heavy on talent at wideout and pass rusher, but not much depth to speak of. If a hamstring goes for Hill or Waddle, look out as they did not do much to find a third receiving weapon. The Jalen Ramsey injury is also a bummer, but I did like the hiring of Vic Fangio at DC. Still, something is missing for me with this team to think they improve on last year’s record.

4. New England Patriots (6-11)

365Scores Preview: Well, at least Matt Patricia won’t be calling plays this year. But I really do think this is the year the Patriots fall to last in the AFC East after the quarterback imbalance has completely swung the other way for them. The last straw was Rodgers joining the Jets, because Belichick has used the Jets for two wins every year since 2016. That ends this year, and the Patriots are going to face a ton of better quarterbacks than Mac Jones unless they resort to poisoning the opponent.

BMR Preview: If you look at New England’s 8 wins last year, the best quarterback they beat was Jared Goff (Lions). Everyone else was a backup, benched, or injured starter. They won’t have that luxury this year, and they have been getting owned by Tua and Allen in the division lately. They also have to play Hurts, Mahomes, Herbert, etc.

OT Preview: The Patriots did not upgrade the weapons enough for Jones to make me think this offense is going to be adequate enough to deal with this schedule. You know the defense will be adequate and keep the team in games, but their edge in close games is gone. This is now the team that does stupid shit like a lateral at midfield back to the quarterback or fumbling inside the 5-yard line against the Bengals on a first down.

You had a great run, but it’s over, Bill.

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles (12-5)

365Scores Preview: This was my first preview out of 95 this summer. The Eagles are still the better team than the Cowboys and 49ers in my view, but the reason I still have trust issues is they just never beat good quarterbacks on good teams. They got by last year beating up on Cooper Rush, or beating teams that finished with winning records that they played when they were starting 2-6. Then Brock Purdy saw his elbow explode after 6 snaps in the title game. It was a lot of fortunate schedule quirks, and I want to see this team beat the good quarterbacks. Hurts is 0-7 against QBs who rank in the top 15 in QBR on a team that wins 10-plus games.

BMR Preview: The NFC East has not had a repeat champion since the 2001-04 Eagles. Every other division has had at least two teams repeat in that time. But I really think the Eagles can get it done this year. I’m not worried about losing the two coordinators, and they still have one of the most talented, balanced rosters.

OT Preview: But I must say adding Jalen Carter to that pass rush is nasty work. The rich get richer. He should be able to learn from Fletcher Cox and I have several bets on him winning Defensive Rookie of the Year. This defense could actually be better this year as I think Gannon’s scheme held them back. But I also have some concerns with Jalen Hurts becoming the first quarterback to run the ball 200 times in a season (playoffs included). They need to dial that back if they don’t want a repeat of last year as he may not return in time from injury for the playoffs.

Keep the quarterback sneak though, even if I hate watching it. That’s just deadly effective for what was already the most unstoppable play from scrimmage in the game.

2. Dallas Cowboys (12-5)

365Scores Preview: The Cowboys are no worse than third in the NFC behind the 49ers and Eagles. But the Cowboys were the only NFC team to rank in the top 5 in scoring on both sides of the ball. Once Dak Prescott came back from injury, he led the team to a 9-game streak of scoring 27-plus points, the longest streak in franchise history. But the way this team melts down in losses against the Bucs, Commanders, and the 49ers in the playoffs is why it is hard to get behind them to win it all for a change.

BMR Preview: Prescott was Mr. Self Destruct last year with the picks, but a lot of them were tipped balls and bad luck. I think the offense is a great candidate for positive regression and his interception rate will drop back to normally low levels. That does not concern me. I also really like the addition of Brandin Cooks as a speedy deep threat, and Michael Gallup should look better another year removed from serious injury. Tony Pollard is also an exciting back, and so may his new backup be in Deuce Vaughn. Ezekiel Elliott is finally out of their way. I also am content with Brian Schottenheimer taking over at OC for Kellen Moore. Russell Wilson had some of his best years in Seattle with him calling the plays. This might be the best offensive core Schotty has ever coached too.

OT Preview: The defense did the unthinkable and led the league in takeaways for the 2nd year in a row. I do not see it happening for a third, but this is one of the best defenses in the league and that was not the unit that held them back in the playoff loss to the 49ers. Speaking of which, the 49ers host Dallas in Week 5 in prime time. I think this is big since Dallas had to play the 49ers, a very talented and well-coached team, in the playoffs the last two years with no experience from the regular season to learn from. Give them a taste of the matchup this year, and maybe this time they will figure it out for January should there be another playoff rematch.

3. Washington Commanders (7-10)

365Scores Preview: The truth is if there was any team I warmed up to dramatically since late July, and the preseason results were partially responsible, it would be Washington. I think 7-10 might even be a low estimate, but I am intrigued by Sam Howell, and I think this just might work out now. I’m definitely way more optimistic now than I was in this preview here. Don’t like seeing Terry McLaurin getting injured in the preseason though. Figures, he was the only player I put in a prop bet for in best bets.

BMR Preview: But Eric Bieniemy can definitely make this opportunity boost him to a head coaching job if he makes Howell, one of the most unheralded opening-day starters in years, into a legit quarterback.

OT Preview: The defense has a ton of home-grown talent and they did come up with two of the best upsets last year in making the Eagles and Cowboys cough up the ball repeatedly.

4. New York Giants (6-11)

365Scores Preview: It was a tale of two seasons for the Giants. At 6-1, they were winning almost every close game they lost in Daniel Jones’ first 3 seasons. But as the season wore on, that dried up unless they were playing Minnesota, the only NFC playoff team they were really capable of beating. I’m not a fan of the wide receiver moves for this team as they just signed a bunch of slot guys and traded for tight end Darren Waller, which would have been more exciting two years ago.

BMR Preview: The main reason I have the Giants swapped with Washington is that it was those matchups last year that dictated the Giants going to the playoffs while the Commanders were out at 8-8-1. I also have more faith in Sam Howell than I do Wentz. I just am not sure Daniel Jones showed enough to warrant the contract extension, and I’m not convinced Brian Daboll is going to get much more out of him this year.

OT Preview: The defense is also likely to continue producing volatile results as they blitz more than any unit in the league. I agree with Daboll winning Coach of the Year last year, but I see the team that finished 3-6-1 as being closer to the real Giants than the team that was 6-1.

AFC SOUTH

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7)

365Scores Preview: This was another preview I was fond of doing, because I looked at how the Jaguars made their turnaround last year, and how it was a huge departure for a team that had lost 41 straight games when allowing more than 20 points. The fact that they trailed by 17+ points a handful of times after Week 9, including getting pumped 27-goose at home to start the playoff campaign, and needed a defensive fumble return TD off a third-string QB signed in December to even make the playoffs…it all worries me about just how good this team, which did not add much outside of getting Calvin Ridley off the suspension list, will be in 2023.

BMR Preview: But by playing in the AFC South, that’s 4 games against rookie coaches and quarterbacks from Indy and Houston. I think the division alone can give this team half their wins this year. It will be interesting to see if Doug Pederson can work some Year 2 magic for Trevor Lawrence like he did with Carson Wentz in 2017.

OT Preview: But I’m still skeptical of how well this team will fare against the elite teams. You can’t keep relying on 17-point comebacks, something they did 3 times in their last 11 games after doing so once in the franchise’s first 455 games. But it is cool to see the Jaguars be relevant again, and they are aiming for back-to-back playoffs for the first time since 1996-99.

2. Tennessee Titans (8-9)

365Scores Preview: It was a true tale of two seasons as the Titans went from 7-3 to 0-7 to miss the playoffs. I’ll still never understand why the team traded A.J. Brown, a move that hampered the passing game dramatically last year. But with 4 games against the Texans and Colts, a healthy Ryan Tannehill, the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, and some skill players entering Year 2, the Titans can certainly get close to .500 again as Mike Vrabel seems to do his best work as an underdog.

BMR Preview: But I really believe this team blew its window with that playoff loss to Cincinnati as the No. 1 seed in 2021. The Titans are old news with one of the oldest quarterbacks, RB1, and WR1 trios in the league. Things would have to go really poor this year to see Will Levis start games, but Tannehill’s injury history also points to it being a possibility. But if that happens, they might be looking for a new coach in 2024 too.

OT Preview: The defense should keep the team in most games as they get Harold Landry back as their best pass rusher. I believe 8-9 is the perfect record for a team stuck in purgatory, just waiting to move on to the next era of Titans football.

3. Houston Texans (4-13)

365Scores Preview: I look at the recent run on first-time coaches who were defensive specialists, but it is not pretty when Sean McDermott, Dan Quinn, and Mike Vrabel are the only success stories so far. However, I do like the DeMeco Ryans hiring because he was not a one-year wonder as coordinator in San Francisco, he’s not a dinosaur like Lovie Smith was last year, and we know Houston is near and dear to his heart being a former player.

BMR Preview: But I also like Ryans because he brought Bobby Slowik with him from San Francisco where he has learned from Kyle Shanahan for many years. He should be able to bring those concepts with him to help C.J. Stroud, who I did not like as much as Bryce Young in the draft, but we’ll see how it goes. The Texans’ lack of weapons is concerning.

OT Preview: At least the team has a plan and can start to build an identity again after two worthless years in the wake of Deshaun Watson’s shame. I did not love the trade for Will Anderson, but I at least understand it. They just better hope he is a lot closer to J.J. Watt than Jadeveon Clowney. Even a repeat of Mario Williams would be a bit disappointing given what they gave up for that pick. But if he is an annual DPOY candidate, then you can’t hate on the move to get the best edge rusher in the draft.

4. Indianapolis Colts (4-13)

365Scores Preview: I spent an abnormal amount of time recapping a 4-win team’s season, which I broke up into five acts as the tragicomedy of the year in 2022. Only Frank Reich got a happy ending by the time it was over.

BMR Preview: Like Houston, I like the hiring of Shane Steichen and the selection of Anthony Richardson. I just think it won’t produce good results in Year 1 because this team has a lot of holes, and the Jonathan Taylor situation is not helping matters.

OT Preview: The Colts really need to be a “run the ball and play good defense” team this year, which is so out of whack with the usual Indy philosophy. But that would suit Richardson best right now. I’m just not sure an offense with Michael Pittman and some backup running backs can do much. I also liked Jelani Woods at tight end in Year 2 but see he is on short-term IR. Bummer. Looks like another long year in Indy that probably won’t be as dramatic or funny as last year’s Jeff Saturday adventure.

NFC SOUTH

1. New Orleans Saints (12-5)

365Scores Preview: One of the best rivalries in the NFL this season should be me against Saints/Derek Carr fans on Twitter. I will go well into January asking who did this team beat, because the schedule is the No. 1 factor in me picking the Saints to go 12-5 this year.

BMR Preview: But given Derek Carr’s final pass with the Raiders was a game-ending interception against the Steelers, I already won that one, didn’t I? Nine years and no playoff wins. Now he gets the best situation of his career where he should be the best quarterback in his division, the schedule is a cakewalk, and he should have his best defense ever.

OT Preview: You might say 12 wins is generous, but the Vikings just won 13 games with a negative scoring differential thanks to comeback wins. What does Carr actually do well? He gets a lot of game-winning drives, and I expect him to do that at least four times this year despite not playing that significantly better. It’s just the situation around him has never been better. However, expect this to be a one-year thing as I predict the division will be tougher in 2024. They need to take advantage of the schedule this year.

2. Atlanta Falcons (9-8)

365Scores Preview: The easy schedule was my talking point for both the Saints and Falcons. Atlanta will play 14 games against the NFC South, NFC North, and AFC South – possibly the worst divisions in the NFL. Desmond Ridder is a true wild card this year, but I can’t deny Bijan Robinson going to the most run-heavy offense makes sense even if I hated the positional value at No. 8. They will use him like he needs to be used. Will they remember they have Kyle Pitts too? We’ll see, but he and Ridder never played together last year because of injury. Drake London also looks like a hit already.

BMR Preview: The defense is a ragtag bunch of free agents, but the schedule will help them immensely too. I do not see many quarterbacks who can hang 30 points on this team, and that already rarely happened last year because Atlanta games had very few possessions due to the running attempts and 3rd-down conversions.

OT Preview: I believe in Arthur Smith enough after two 7-10 seasons to take advantage of this easy schedule, get more out of Ridder than he could in a second try with Mariota, and the Falcons will end this 5-year losing slide. But they’re not a serious contender for the Super Bowl yet.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-11)

365Scores Preview: The Buccaneers will have a quarterback this year who is not going to get rid of the ball before any receiver can get downfield because he is done getting hit in his career. But will Baker Mayfield make the easy throws to sustain drives? Will he pull off the game-winning drives he has usually sucked at after the defense keeps many games close and winnable for him? I’m not sold there.

BMR Preview: But imagine if Baker did play great this year. Dave Canales is a name to keep an eye out on as the team’s new offensive coordinator. He was Geno Smith’s quarterbacks coach last year and helped him to a career year. If he did the same with Baker in Tampa, he could be a head coach by 2025.

OT Preview: The schedule is a huge bonus for the NFC South teams except for Tampa Bay. By virtue of playing a first-place schedule, the Bucs have to play the Bills, 49ers, and Eagles – three elite teams the Saints, Falcons, and Panthers do not have to play. That is why I have them at 6-11, but still ahead of Carolina based on head-to-head results.

4. Carolina Panthers (6-11)

365Scores Preview: This preview takes an interesting look at the best rookie quarterback seasons in NFL history. It does not seem likely that Bryce Young will join this list, because he lacks a lot of the advantages those quarterbacks had after the Panthers traded D.J. Moore to Chicago to help get him.

BMR Preview: Also, the Panthers may not be a traditional No. 1 draft pick team based on record, but it is a fact that Andrew Luck is the only quarterback drafted No. 1 in the Super Bowl era to win more than 7 games as a rookie.

OT Preview: But I like Young the most in this rookie quarterback class, because I think he will be closer to young Russell Wilson (a pass-first quarterback who can use his mobility to improvise) than someone like Justin Fields (all about his legs). I also liked the hiring of Frank Reich, who finally gets to craft a young quarterback instead of a revolving door of veterans on their last legs. But for the love of God, can the Panthers win a close game? They were 0-16 at game-winning drive opportunities under Matt Rhule, and the Panthers have lost 50 straight games when trailing in the fourth quarter going back to 2018.

AFC NORTH

1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4)

365Scores Preview: I have not always been the most supportive voice for Lamar Jackson, but I am riding with the Ravens to make this their redemption season. After so many injuries and one-score losses the last two years, I see the Ravens putting it together for their best overall season in the Jackson era. No, the record and statistics may not look as strong as they did in 2019 when they blew it in the first playoff game, but I’m talking about a team that can actually step up and beat the AFC elites (Chiefs, Bengals, Bills) in big games in the regular season and postseason.

BMR Preview: People either forget or didn’t know that the Ravens were leading the AFC North in December the last two years when Jackson was injured and lost for the season. With his new contract, new offensive coordinator, and the best supporting cast of weapons he’s ever had, I like Jackson as an MVP candidate and for the Ravens to win the AFC North back from the Bengals.

OT Preview: The defense may not be as elite as it used to be, but I trust John Harbaugh’s coaching, Justin Tucker is the greatest to ever do it, and I’m going to bet on Jackson to stay healthy this time and lead this team to the top seed as you can see I did not pick any other AFC team to do better than 12-5.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)

365Scores Preview: No one has won the AFC North three years in a row since 2002, and like I just said with the Ravens, it was Baltimore who led the division in December the last two years when Jackson was injured. Now it is Joe Burrow with the injury concern coming into this season, though he is expected to start Week 1. A big game with the Ravens awaits already in Week 2.

BMR Preview: I think this team is still right in the mix in the playoffs, and I like how they looked against Buffalo last year in 4.5 quarters. That may be a good matchup for them. They play the Chiefs better than just about anyone. They are a tough out, but I’m not sold that adding Orlando Brown Jr. is the solution to making Burrow take the next step and bring those sack numbers down. Burrow is 21-1 when he doesn’t take 5 sacks since mid-2021. He is 1-8 when taking 5+ sacks.

OT Preview: The Bengals also lost some key starters in the secondary and I do not like the replacements they added. First-round pick DE Myles Murphy is also unlikely to make a big impact off the bench this year.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

365Scores Preview: If Washington was the NFC team that changed my mind a bit during the preseason, the Steelers are that team in the AFC after the starting offense went 5-for-5 in scoring touchdowns in August. Now watch them be a bottom 3 scoring team in September, because the NFL is like that sometimes. But this preview looks at the chances of Kenny Pickett overcoming his coaching to have a breakout 2nd season.

BMR Preview: The history is not great for Pickett, but the offensive core is so young and talented that it may be able to overcome Matt Canada, the returning OC who has gone all 35 games of his career without once getting this offense to 400 yards in any game. But George Pickens could be ready to make a huge leap too in Year 2, and the offense was elite on third down after the bye last year.

OT Preview: The schedule is not so front-loaded brutal like it was last year when the Steelers started 2-6. But with Pickett and Pickens no longer rookies, T.J. Watt back healthy, and Mike Tomlin always finding a way to not have a losing season, I think the Steelers improve enough in a deep division to get to 10 wins. Is that enough for the playoffs? Scroll down.

4. Cleveland Browns (8-9)

365Scores Preview: I look at how Deshaun Watson underperformed last year and how he is no longer a top 8 quarterback in the AFC, which is absolutely what the Browns need him to be if they are going to go over 9.5 wins. Frankly, I think this is one of the easiest unders this year. The division is tough, and Cleveland has finished behind Pittsburgh in every season since 1990. That’s to say nothing about the Super Bowl contenders in Baltimore and Cincinnati.

BMR Preview: The Browns were 1-1 against each division rival last year, but they also beat the Steelers without Kenny Pickett and T.J. Watt, beat the Bengals without Ja’Marr Chase, and beat the Ravens without Lamar Jackson. Is that going to happen again for them? Doubtful.

OT Preview: In this one I give a shot out to how Jacoby Brissett played the best ball of his career last year in a tough situation, knowing he was keeping the seat warm for someone like Watson. I also acknowledge some of the reasons the Browns performed worse in Watson’s starts, including the defenses faced and the weather. But there is no excuse for him in 2023 to not play better. He was every bit as bad as Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson were on their new teams last year.

NFC NORTH

1. Detroit Lions (9-8)

365Scores Preview: The Lions are outright favorites in a division for the first time since 1982. It did not go well then, nor did it go well in 1992 when they were co-favorites with Chicago. But for all the talk I made about not liking this team to improve much, I still ended up with 9-8 and a division title this time. The rest of the division has a lot of uncertainty to it. But this preview has an interesting study on teams who start 1-6 and get to 8-9 wins and how they did the following year. A poor start followed by a hot finish is no guarantee of success the next year.

BMR Preview: Another theme in my Detroit previews was looking at their draft class and how they may not have gotten the best positional value. A lot of the moves should be marginal upgrades, especially at running back where D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams had big production last year.

OT Preview: You know what could make the defense much better? Aidan Hutchinson improving to DPOY-caliber play in his second season. I like him as a dark horse for that award (+3000 odds).

2. Minnesota Vikings (8-9)

365Scores Preview: Regression is always the buzzword with the Vikings this year after going 11-0 in close games with 8 4QC/GWD (tied NFL record). Writing previews for this team was fun because they really did have one of the most entertaining seasons in NFL history last year. But 13-4 was a mirage and they will regress in close games this year to fall back to Kirk Cousins’ typical .500 range.

BMR Preview: But I was worried that I may have been leaning too hard on the regression bet as my original picks had the Vikings at 6-11 before I beefed it up to 8-9. When I saw the Vikings playing a team that lost a lot of close games last year (Raiders, Broncos come to mind), I immediately turned to regression and gave the Vikings a loss this year. It’s not like the offense will suddenly suck even if they lost Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen. They still have Justin Jefferson and I like the pick of Jordan Addison. Just get someone in his head to not go speeding at night unless he wants to be the next Henry Ruggs. But Cousins is one of the few NFC quarterbacks who can say he is a proven passer that can stay healthy for a full season. That is an advantage for this team.

OT Preview: But the defense let go of so many veterans that Brian Flores is going to see his bend-but-don’t-break style of defense break often this year. But can 8-9 still be enough for the playoffs in a weak, top-heavy conference like this NFC? Scroll down.

3. Green Bay Packers (8-9)

365Scores Preview: I have a table in here that shows how hard it is to replace a legendary quarterback as even Aaron Rodgers was 6-10 (with a bunch of close losses in 2008) in his first year as a starter. But I trust Matt LaFleur to make this work to get at least the same record as last year when Rodgers was at his worst with the broken thumb. I’m intrigued by Love and thought he looked good in the preseason, if that ever matters.

BMR Preview: The Packers have a ton of young skill players around Love, so they are going to grow together if this works out. They can lean on the veteran backfield, and the defense was the best of a lousy bunch in this division last year.

OT Preview: I am not picking the Packers for the playoffs, but I think they have a shot since the division does not look like it will produce a 10-win team to me. If Love is legit, then this could be very interesting as the Lions already swept the Packers last year with Rodgers. It’s not like his absence is going to help Detroit get even better this year, so the division games should be crucial in figuring out who wins this open division.

Definitely going to be weird to think about the Packers without Favre or Rodgers.

4. Chicago Bears (7-10)

365Scores Preview: I may have done more research on the Bears than any other team this season in writing these previews. What I wanted to look at was how much a team can improve in one year when it ranked dead last in points allowed and in net yards per pass attempt on offense (Bears were 32nd at NY/A on defense too). Results are in here, but the Bears were only the 4th team to finish last in both since 1970. I also looked at teams who ranked in the bottom quarter of the league in both, and almost every team to improve made big changes the 2023 Bears did not.

BMR Preview: That’s the other issue I have with the Bears having a breakout year. They kept the same HC, OC, DC, and QB. The teams that really improved changed at least one of those and usually multiple. The Bears drafted a right tackle and added D.J. Moore and a pass rusher (Ngakoue) who will bail after this season. I look in this link at the fluky YAC plays Moore made this preseason that are unlikely to translate to the regular season. He is not a transformative talent like Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, or Stefon Diggs.

OT Preview: Thanks to Josh Allen, every quarterback who is not good for two years is going to have hope in Year 3, but I’m not sold on Fields as a legitimate passer. He is already one of the most dynamic rushing quarterbacks ever but passing wins games as the 2022 Bears proved with their 3-14 record. The Bears may still have the worst passer in the NFC North.

PLAYOFFS

Once I went through the schedule and made sure things added up to 272 wins, there were very few manual adjustments. I mostly just wanted to make sure Arizona had the worst record and no team was going to win more than 13 games this year.

AFC

  • 1. Baltimore (13-4)
  • 2. Buffalo (12-5)
  • 3. Kansas City (12-5)
  • 4. Jacksonville (10-7)
  • 5. NY Jets (12-5)
  • 6. Cincinnati (11-5)
  • 7. Pittsburgh (10-7)

Yes, I have Buffalo winning in Kansas City again in December, setting it up for the Chiefs to have to go on the road once they complete a sweep of the Bengals in the wild card round to even things at 3-3 (2-1 in the playoffs) in that rivalry. You got on the wrong horse, Orlando.

The Steelers have a good year but lose in Buffalo, the site of Kenny Pickett’s first start last year. The Jets stifle the Jaguars on the road, setting up a Jets-Ravens matchup in the divisional round while the Chiefs go to Buffalo for a change. While people think Rodgers vs. Mahomes is going to be the title game, it’s a surprise as the home teams hold court, setting up Bills at Ravens in the AFC Championship Game.

If you saw me tweeting stats like that at 3 AM, you should have expected this prediction. Lamar Jackson shakes off an MVP snub and the Ravens hang onto the lead this time, sending them back to their first Super Bowl since the 2012 season.

NFC

  • 1. Philadelphia (12-5)
  • 2. San Francisco (12-5)
  • 3. New Orleans (12-5)
  • 4. Detroit (9-8)
  • 5. Dallas (12-5)
  • 6. Atlanta (9-8)
  • 7. Minnesota (8-9)

Honestly, I’m not sure if the Vikings secured the right tie-breakers, but I’d rather see them get a shot in San Francisco instead of the Seahawks again. The 49ers should still win that game with ease.

Not only was the schedule a blessing for the Saints and Falcons in the regular season to get this far, but now they get another game against each other in the wild card. What the hell? I’m feeling generous, so I’ll give Derek Carr a playoff win. But he’ll get exposed by the San Francisco defense the following week.

After the Cowboys enter on a little losing slump, the Lions are feeling like they can get revenge for 2014. Their last playoff win in 1991 was also against Dallas, so maybe the stars are aligning. However, this is my retribution story for Dallas this season, and they win this game, setting up a rematch with the top-seeded Eagles.

We come to learn that things look pretty favorable in this rivalry to Dallas when Dak Prescott is at quarterback, and he outplays Hurts in an upset win on the road to finally end the streak of not getting to the NFC Championship Game since the 1995 season.

Always a bridesmaid, the 49ers again lose the title game for the third year in a row, and this time Dallas takes what it learned in the Week 5 matchup and puts it to good use in upsetting the 49ers and avenging the last two postseasons to return to the Super Bowl. The revisionist history on Mike McCarthy, who can become the first coach to win a Super Bowl with two teams (and winning all road playoff games), is absolutely spectacular for two weeks.

SUPER BOWL LVIII

I may be breaking some of my rules for Super Bowl picks here, but at least it is still a No. 1 seed against a team that was in the final 8 last year with an elite offense and defense. But the Ravens prevail and hang onto this lead after Prescott and McCarthy blow the final drive again, giving sports media enough material for the whole offseason.

Baltimore 28, Dallas 24 (Super Bowl MVP: Lamar Jackson)

This technically would break the Five-Year Rule where no team has won its first Super Bowl with a head coach starting the same quarterback for more than 5 years. This is Year 6 for Harbaugh and Jackson. But you know that rule is going to be broken someday, and why not let it be broken by a former MVP with his best offensive cast, a better offensive coordinator, and is it really 5 years when his last two seasons ended prematurely in December at a time the Ravens were in first place in the AFC North? This exception to the rule would at least be logical.

Now I expect a season where the results are anything but logical, so follow along with me as I cover my 13th season.

TL;DR Version: Last season was crazy. This season could be nuttier with so many new quarterbacks. But I’m going back to an old pick and taking the Ravens over Cowboys while still thinking Buffalo has a shot to redeem itself too. Oh, and since his name has not shown up once in 10,350 words, a happy retirement shoutout to one Tom Brady:

A season without Brady?

NFL Stat Oddity: 2022 Wild Card Weekend

~ Scott ~ 3 Comments

Much like those Burger King commercials tossing “You rule!” at the end, I pretty much feckin’ cringe when I hear “Super Wild Card Weekend.” So, I couldn’t bring myself to call it that in the headline, but it was a great weekend of games.

Even with several backup quarterbacks and plenty of playoff inexperience, every team showed up competitively for at least three quarters. Every team except the Chargers, who only showed up for two.

Just four weeks ago, we had the largest comeback in NFL history, which I did a big story on for the Vikings. Twenty-eight days later, we had the fifth-largest comeback win in Jacksonville. The wild card round is now home to three of the five biggest comebacks in NFL history, all from a deficit of 27-plus points.

But the 49ers’ rookie quarterback did something we hadn’t seen since 1937, the Chargers cemented their legacy as the Falcons of the AFC, the Bills are the only team capable of making the No. 7 seed look like it belongs, the Giants ended another historic NFL winning streak, and Joe Burrow willed his defense to the longest fumble return touchdown in playoff history (and maybe the most significant one ever).

Oh yeah, there were also a shitload of bad third-and-1 calls in every game as teams don’t seem to understand how important possession is in the postseason. Between the third-and-1 calls and the turnovers, there is a lot to go over here.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Cowboys at Buccaneers: Not with a Bang But a Whimper

So, was that it? We were fooled last year, but the Rams loss was really such a perfect game for Tom Brady to end his career with. But he just had to come back for this, an 8-10 finish with the worst offense of his career and an embarrassing home playoff loss in a 31-14 game that wasn’t even that close.

This letdown of the week against Dallas was so forgettable that I’m not even going to bother creating a separate link to cover it. I’ve just pasted it at the top of the week’s recap after 2 A.M. Hard to believe a playoff game with Brady, Mike McCarthy, and Dan Quinn could be this dull.

First, we were treated to five minutes of neither team looking like it could gain a first down. But once Dallas broke through with a touchdown, Brady had a long drive to answer going into the second quarter. After a weekend that was so competitive and dramatic, this was a wire-to-wire win that had one moment of competitiveness.

Then it was over in an instant after Brady forced a brutal pass from the 5-yard line and it was intercepted in the end zone, his first red-zone pick with the Buccaneers. What a time to make it.

The Cowboys drove 80 yards from there and Dak Prescott finished with the naked bootleg for a 1-yard touchdown run on a fourth down. He would also throw his second touchdown of the half to tight end Dalton Schultz, but kicker Brett Maher missed all three extra points in the half as Dallas led 18-0.

The Bucs looked terrible, but this rope-a-dope strategy has been their bread-and-butter all year. They had to make a run in the second half, right? Well, the Cowboys were still hot in the third quarter with another 86-yard touchdown drive to take a 24-0 lead that wasn’t 28-0 because Maher somehow missed four straight extra points.

It appears Gisele was the one with the dark magic, because Brady only seemed to have time to make a voodoo doll for Maher, his only source of luck in this game. According to Elias, Maher’s four misses are the most missed extra points in any game (regular season or postseason) in NFL history, and he did it on four in a row.

It’s still a nice addition to the list for the LOAT in maybe his final game, but this was a snoozer with no real drama in the second half.

From the ESPN broadcast, we learned that Tampa Bay was 3-for-59 (5%) on third down with 10+ yards to go this season, the worst by any offense since 1980. Throw in 0-for-5 in this game and that’s 3-for-64, one of my favorite new stats.

The Bucs would not go scoreless as Brady finally found Julio Jones, who looked as good as he did all year, for a 30-yard touchdown on the third quarter’s final play to make it 24-6.

But any hope of a wild fourth quarter was quickly put to rest by Prescott, who was money on the night. Bypassing a fourth-and-4 because of how bad Maher was, the Cowboys used a bunch formation and somehow got CeeDee Lamb wide open for an 18-yard touchdown, Dak’s fourth of the night to go along with 305 yards and a rush touchdown. Just by far his best playoff game, and the kind of performance you want to see from a 12-win team against an 8-9 fraud.

Brady had three more drives after that, and he got a touchdown on the second one. The Bucs also recovered an onside kick, just the fourth in the league this year, at the 2:00 warning, but it was too late by then. Mike Evans even dropped a long touchdown on one of the few good Brady throws of the night just to fvck my last bet.

It was amusing to not look at the stats once during this game and only check them after it was over. Brady finished with 66 passes but only 351 yards. Brady is the only quarterback in the Super Bowl era to throw 65-plus passes in a game and score fewer than 17 points. George Blanda once threw 68 passes in a 24-10 loss against the 1964 Bills in the AFL.

Home games where Tom Brady’s team trailed after all four quarters:

  • New England: 6-for-162 (3.7%)
  • Tampa Bay: 8-for-27 (29.6%)

The problems for the Bucs were the same they were all year in their worst moments. They were one-dimensional, they were ineffective on first down, seemingly every second down was a WR screen, and a dump pass to the running back was their best play. The deep shots were almost all bad, and Brady threw countless passes into the dirt as Micah Parsons and pass rush ate well against that line.

Dallas did just about everything very well but special teams. On the bright side, at least Maher made the extra point on his fifth try, so hopefully he will get that out of his system for next week in San Francisco. That’s where Dallas is headed after finally winning its first road playoff game since the 1992 NFC Championship Game in San Francisco. This is a way better matchup than having to watch Brady and this putrid offense against a team they trailed 35-0.

As for Brady’s future, he’ll have to decide that. I’m not sure this season could be any clearer that he should have never ended his retirement after 40 days. The 49ers aren’t going to want him when they have three better options in 2023. Any team he goes to is going to have to be stacked and in win-now mode, and there are almost none of them out there that don’t already have their quarterback.

Will he really think going to the AFC West at 46 years old, with the Raiders and Josh McDaniels, and dealing with Mahomes and Herbert (and maybe Russell Wilson with a good coach again) is a good path to get to the Super Bowl again?

The NFC South is still his safe haven, but this Tampa team is poorly coached and not good enough anymore to go on a deep run.

The same can be said of Brady, who without a Jared Cook fumble in New Orleans two years ago likely never gets out of the divisional round in the last four years. No matter where he goes to play next, they are going to be dealing with an old quarterback who doesn’t want to get hit anymore, doesn’t hold the ball to extend plays, doesn’t give you the rushing threat almost every starter has these days, and he’s going to throw passes in the dirt and bitch his teammates out on a weekly basis while looking miserable.

Even Michael Jordan knew better than to give the Wizards a third season or a third NBA team his services. Tom, just hang them up, and take the god damn FOX money so you can still be an annoying part of our NFL Sundays.

Ravens at Bengals: Clutch Defense to the Rescue for the Offensive Team Again

It is starting to get unfair, isn’t it? The young, offensive-driven team with the franchise quarterback, three great wide receivers, solid backs, a marginal offensive line, and a coach you still would struggle to pick out of a Costco cashier lineup is now 4-1 in the playoffs.

And once again, they used a clutch takeaway on defense with the game tied and the odds stacked against them.  

From the 1-yard line in a 17-17 game in the fourth quarter, Baltimore quarterback Tyler Huntley tried to extend the ball on a quarterback sneak on third down and had it swatted away, popped out right to Sam Hubbard, and he returned it 98 yards for a game-winning touchdown with 11:39 to play. It is the longest fumble return touchdown in NFL playoff history.

Given what was at stake, you could argue this is the first or second-biggest fumble return touchdown in NFL history. The only other game-winning fumble return touchdown in the fourth quarter or overtime of a playoff game was when Arizona’s Karlos Dansby got the ball after a strip-sack of Aaron Rodgers to beat Green Bay 51-45 in overtime in the 2009 NFC Wild Card. The Packers were deep in their own end at the time.

While there were still over 11 minutes left when this happened, the Ravens were in prime position to take a 24-17 lead on a night where the Bengals once again failed to crack 300 yards on this Baltimore defense. It’s happened all three times this year, though at least this one can be argued that they only had seven real drives.

But this was a massive swing in playoff win probability for a Super Bowl contender, and given the record length, you have to consider it right up there with any fumble return touchdown ever.

AFC North Race Changed on Lamar Jackson’s Health

The Bengals have not won a Super Bowl yet, but they were certainly close last year, and here they go again with their fourth one-score win in the postseason. The four playoff wins are double what the Ravens (2) have mustered as postseason wins in the last decade since winning Super Bowl 47. That’s also one more playoff win than Mike Tomlin (3) has in his last 12 seasons since losing Super Bowl 45.

But this year’s AFC North race was heavily tilted by Lamar Jackson’s knee injury in Week 13. The Ravens never scored more than 17 points in their final seven games after that injury.

The fact that they didn’t score more than 17 in this game would have surprised no one before the game, but if you tuned in for the fourth quarter, you were shocked to see how they crumbled in the moment this time.

Leading Up To the Historic Fumble

I pointed out multiple times this week that the Week 18 game between the Ravens and Bengals, which the Ravens played many backups for, featured 28 offensive drives. That is a gross number of drives for two offenses of playoff teams. There were a lot of punts and turnovers in that game.

But this game had just 16 possessions, and the Ravens even had two extra possessions than the Bengals, though not for the best reasons.

These teams thrived on long drives, but the Ravens seemed to capture some real belief in an upset after a quick-strike in the third quarter following Joe Burrow’s sneak touchdown to take a 17-10 lead back for Cincinnati. Huntley found Demarcus Robinson wide open for a 41-yard touchdown pass after he burned corner Eli Apple on a double move to tie the game.

The Bengals went three-and-out, and the Ravens began their fateful march as the game moved into the final frame. Just when it looked like another bad third-and-1 play was dialed up, Mark Andrews came down with a great 25-yard reception, his best play in a postseason game where he has been criticized for his lack of plays in the past.

But after a 35-yard run by Huntley set up first-and-goal at the 2, he really messed up by short-arming a throw in the flat to Patrick Ricard. The play was there, but Huntley missed his fullback. That led to the pivotal third-and-1, and obviously I am in favor of a quarterback sneak. But it looked like a full yard away or better, so when Huntley decided to leave his feet and stick the ball out, you kind of felt disaster was coming. Sure enough, the Bengals knocked it out and Hubbard made the record-setting return.

The lunge to stick the ball out on the sneak, often done so well by Drew Brees in his days, is really a last resort play. You can do it on fourth down or maybe a two-point conversion from the 1, but in this situation where you know the Ravens could just go for it on fourth down, it was really risky to do it on third down. A tactical error for sure.

Ravens Flopped After the Fumble

Unsurprisingly, the Ravens struggled to score the rest of the way. But the Ravens also got hosed on a weak roughing the punter call to extend a Cincinnati drive, though the Bengals failed to gain a first down on their final four series of plays. 

It looked like the Cincinnati offense was blowing it, and after a bad punt effort for the Bengals, Huntley had the ball back with 3:14 left at the Cincinnati 46 – tons of time and an incredible situation to be in for the underdog. You know John Harbaugh was going for two instead of overtime, but would the Ravens score too fast?

We should have been asking would they score at all, because the Ravens seemed to play the clock more than they remembered to call good plays. It took two minutes to move 18 yards. While everyone would love to score in the final seconds and win by one point, things rarely work out that nicely.

The Ravens even tried squeezing a run in only to be denied by a holding penalty. Huntley’s passes were not even close to connecting with a human being, and just like that it was fourth-and-20 from the Cincinnati 27 with 8 seconds left.

Hail Mary was the only choice. Huntley stumbled a bit before regaining himself, making the throw, and only on a deflection did the Ravens have a slight shot at a miracle catch before the ball hit the ground, ending their season and allowing the Bengals to double them up in playoff wins for the last decade.

Burrow the Babyface LOAT?

Cincinnati’s offense scored 17 points, did not have a single 20-yard play, did not have a single first down without penalty on the final four series, and yet they still won the game by the skin of their teeth against a backup quarterback.

That is some LOAT material if I’ve ever seen it, which was something I floated out repeatedly last postseason about Burrow turning into the new Tom Brady.

But this is already the third playoff game where Burrow’s defense forced a turnover in a tied fourth quarter or overtime. They intercepted Ryan Tannehill at midfield in the AFC divisional round last year to set up a game-winning field goal in the final minute. They intercepted Patrick Mahomes in overtime in the AFC Championship Game to set up another game-winning field goal. Now the longest fumble return touchdown in playoff history against the Ravens.

Since 2001, there have only been 16 turnovers in a tied fourth quarter or overtime in a playoff game. Burrow has been the beneficiary of 3-of-16. The only other quarterback with more than one was Drew Brees, who had two in the fourth quarter against the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game. Even Brady has never had one of these go his way if you can believe it. Burrow also threw an interception in Kansas City last January, so he has been involved directly or indirectly in the last four of these moments.

So, this is one area where Burrow is blowing the LOAT and everyone else out of the water.

But what’s not very LOAT like is losing a third starting linemen in the last three weeks as left tackle Jonah Williams left with a bad looking injury. Neither is having to go to Buffalo when the NFL should have considered this a neutral situation just as much as Bills-Chiefs, but I have all week to write about the future here.

Hell, I had to write three different previews this week for this one Ravens-Bengals game (four if you count the prediction blurb on this blog), so let’s just save the preview talk for later. But this game did turn out a lot better than I thought it would even though my predictions was Bengals 24-16. The Ravens are a tough out. But we may never see Jackson again in a Baltimore uniform, so this could be the end of an era there.

Meanwhile, the Bengals play on.

Giants at Vikings: Giant Streak Killers End Kevin O’Connell’s Run

It finally happened. The 2022 Vikings lost a one-score game after going 11-0 at them in the regular season. They failed at a comeback and game-winning drive opportunity after going 8-0 in them. Going back to last year’s Super Bowl run with the Rams, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell had streaks of 14-0 in close games, 11-0 at game-winning drives, and 10-0 at fourth-quarter comebacks.

They’re all over too as the best streak-killing franchise in the NFL ended another one:

  • It was the Giants who beat the 1934 Bears (13-0) in the NFL Championship Game.
  • It was the Giants who ended the 49ers’ three-peat Super Bowl attempt in the 1990 NFC Championship Game.
  • It was the Giants who beat the 1998 Broncos (13-0) to deny them a perfect season on their way to repeating.
  • It was the Giants who beat the 2007 Patriots (18-0) in Super Bowl 42 to deny 19-0 perfection.
  • Now it was the 2022 Giants who end another Minnesota season filled with history-making wins.

If you studied the game these teams played in Week 16, then you should have expected something close, high scoring, and dramatic. The teams did not disappoint. In fact, they were even better than expected.

I joked Saturday that Daniel Jones would throw for 300 yards and rush for 100 yards in Minnesota. He came close with 301 passing yards and 78 rushing yards, only the second quarterback in playoff history to hit those numbers. Lamar Jackson had 365 passing and 143 rushing in that upset loss to the 2019 Ravens when he had 83 dropbacks.

Jones only had 55 dropbacks, but it was one of the best games of his career, if not the best given the moment. He found plenty of open receivers and his legs were dynamic in the first half when he did most of his damage.

Kirk Cousins did not play a bad game by any means, and he was within reach of a ninth comeback and game-winning drive after leading the Vikings to a 24-24 tie in the fourth quarter as the teams traded long drive after long drive. On a weekend with many turnovers and short fields, it was refreshing to see a 31-24 game where all but one scoring drive was 75-plus yards.

But it was the Vikings’ game-tying field goal in the fourth quarter that was the shortest scoring drive at 56 yards. The Vikings were going to go for a fourth-and-1 at the New York 16, but they had to change course after a poor time for a false start.

Jones was no stranger to game-winning drives this year, and he led his sixth of 2022 by driving the Giants 75 yards for a touchdown. Isaiah Hodgins had a huge game with 108 yards and a touchdown, and he had a 19-yard catch on the go-ahead drive. Jones converted a fourth-and-1 run, and Saquon Barkley scored his second touchdown run in his first playoff game to take a 31-24 lead with half a quarter left.

The Vikings went three-and-out on an uninspiring drive, and it was starting to look like the close-game streak was on life support. But the Giants blew a shot to run out the clock after Darius Slayton spoiled a strong game by dropping a pass on third-and-15 with room to run, stopping the clock.

The lucky Vikings, the worst 13-win team in NFL history, were full of life again with just under 3:00 left and 88 yards away from the end zone. After a horrific roughing the passer penalty gifted them 15 yards and a first down, you could already see the 32-31 win coming after a two-point conversion. O’Connell was going to set more history with a fourth-straight playoff win by 1-to-3 points.

But after the Vikings got to midfield, things stalled. Cousins threw a good ball to K.J. Osborn on a third-and-8, but the defense held up, and maybe even got there a little early and held up Osborn. No flag. On fourth-and-ballgame, the Vikings ran a play that will be crucified for quite some time.

While T.J. Hockenson had a great game with over 100 yards again, he’s not exactly Rob Gronkowski with the ball in his hands. He wasn’t going to break a tackle on a 3-yard throw and pick up the first down with YAC. But that’s where Cousins threw the ball, and that’s how Minnesota’s season ended. All those record comebacks and they throw a full 5 yards short of the sticks on fourth down to a draped receiver.

It sure was a letdown and the kind of failed completion that Cousins is better known for than the comeback legend he was in 2022. But I have to say the design of the play was poor, and most of the receivers were too far away from the marker either way. Cousins could have just chucked up the ball to Justin Jefferson, because we know that’s worked before on fourth down. It probably gives them a better chance than what he ultimately did, but he didn’t take it after a quick pressure was in his face as the Vikings had a glaring offensive line issue that was part of their downfall.

But the Giants also did a fabulous job of taking Jefferson (7 catches for 49 yards) away, especially after an opening drive that saw him catch four balls for 30 yards. He had just 19 yards the rest of the way as the Giants made sure to keep an eye on him.

The Giants did not blitz much like they are known for doing, but like in Week 16, they did a great job of limiting the big plays against the Vikings. With Jefferson a non-factor after the first drive, they also took away the drive-sustaining plays he can make as he had 12 catches in Week 16. The Vikings were also outrushed by the Giants by Jones alone 78-to-61.

It is hard to put too much criticism on the Vikings’ offense. They scored three touchdowns and a field goal on eight drives. They just faltered in the fourth quarter, which is something I have been expecting since October. The fact that it came in a playoff game at home against the Giants is likely not just coincidence, but it says more about how well the Giants played in Week 16 than any playoff choking issue or curse on the franchise.

But Brian Daboll and his staff did an excellent job, and Jones was very sharp on the road. They’ll face a much tougher task in Philadelphia next week, but maybe this is their chance to get revenge for 2008 when the Eagles upset the top-seeded Giants and ended their repeat bid.

It is New York’s first playoff win since Super Bowl 46. As for the Vikings, they will be a very trendy pick for big regression next year in their record. But again, I’m not going to bother talking about that now when we have most of 2023 to point out how the Vikings just aren’t winning the close games like they were last year.

Because no one is this lucky to win every close game in the NFL. 

Dolphins at Bills: Buffalo Marathon Ends with Legitimate Scare

No one circles the wagons to barely beat the No. 7 seed by three points at home like the Buffalo Bills.

I am not sure how an NFL game can last nearly four hours without going to overtime, but if it wasn’t for Buffalo, No. 7 seeds would look illegitimate after three years of this playoff format.

The only No. 7 seeds to not lose by 12-plus points played at Buffalo: 2020 Colts lost 27-24 in a thriller and the Dolphins were a 14-point underdog but still had their shot in a 34-31 game in the fourth quarter.

You have to give Miami rookie coach Mike McDaniel a lot of credit for playing the Bills tough all three times despite having the lesser team. On Sunday, he was down to a third-string rookie quarterback and did not have his best running back (Raheem Mostert).

The Dolphins only rushed 20 times for 42 yards. Skylar Thompson was 18-of-45 passing for 220 yards, though he had several big drops, especially from Jaylen Waddle, who looked a bit soft in his playoff debut. Tyreek Hill was no Buffalo killer this year with 69 yards on seven catches and 15 targets.

But even with those abysmal numbers and an early 17-0 hole, this game was very close and a legitimate scare for the Bills, who have spent most of this year as the Super Bowl favorite. They were fortunate they didn’t have to face a healthy Tua Tagovailoa in this one.

It’s the Turnovers, Stupid

This was mostly a game because of turnovers, which isn’t surprising in the playoffs. But the Bills better get control of this, because turnovers are likely going to be the downfall to their season. They had a neutral turnover differential in the regular season with 27 giveaways (third most) and 27 takeaways. Not what you’d expect from a 13-3 team.

They lost the takeaway battle 2-3 in this one. We are still waiting to figure out what kind of playoff quarterback Josh Allen wants to be, and right now, a chaotic one is the best answer. He was absolutely brilliant in the two games last season, but between this game and his first two runs, he’s looking more like a Brett Favre (young and old) out there.

Even from the first drive of the game Allen was up to some shenanigans with the ball coming out of his grasp on a third-down run before it went out of bounds. Then he was picked on a deep ball by Xavien Howard with the Bills up 17-3 in the second quarter, and that started the comeback.

Khalil Shakir dropped a 54-yard pass from Allen, which came a few drives after Dawson Knox tried to use the ground to help him catch a touchdown, so it was a day filled with some amazing catches and some poor jobs by players on both teams at catching the ball.

But Buffalo was close to blowing them out before halftime. Sloppiness won out. Miami had settled for another field goal, and three plays later, Allen was intercepted again after trying to go for Cole Beasley. The Dolphins turned that into an 18-yard touchdown drive and game-tying two-point conversion, shocking the crowd, but not before the Bills added a field goal to take a 20-17 lead into the locker room after a two-hour half.

But the third quarter started worse with Allen getting stripped of the ball and seeing Miami recover it for a touchdown to take a 24-20 lead – Miami’s first third-quarter lead in a playoff game since playing Buffalo in the 1998 season. A long time ago.

Allen was sacked seven times with three turnovers on the day, and he started to press when trailing on two bad drives in a row. But this was where the Dolphins really missed an experienced quarterback, because they couldn’t take advantage of Buffalo’s implosion. On a third-and-19, Thompson made his dumbest play of the day to force a pass that was intercepted, putting the Bills at the Miami 33 and setting up an easy short field for a go-ahead touchdown. Miami never led again.

You can understand why teams like screens and draws in those situations. You’re unlikely to convert, so just get out of there with something safe. McDaniel miscalculated letting his rookie throw, and if he was going to throw, he should have just thrown a bomb instead of a ball that put Buffalo that close to the end zone for some much-needed help.

Closing It Out (Barely)

The Bills seemed back on track with consecutive touchdowns and a 34-24 lead, but like in Week 15, the Dolphins kept coming back. Another touchdown drive made it 34-31, and Allen was again pressing with sacks and incomplete shot plays. Allen also took back-to-back sacks in the four-minute offense and nearly lost another fumble.

But for all the good McDaniel did as an underdog here, the management of getting plays called in and getting the snap off in time was piss poor. The Dolphins also wasted two timeouts early in the half, and they even had to spend their third timeout with the clock stopped and 4:13 left. That really made their last drive in a 34-31 game do-or-die without any timeouts, and they botched that too by getting a delay of game penalty on a fourth-and-1 to make it fourth-and-5. I don’t know how you get caught trying to change personnel with under 15 seconds on the play clock on the biggest play of the game. I refuse to just blame the rookie quarterback for this problem that lasted most of the game.

Supposedly, McDaniel tried to justify the delay of game by saying they were told they had a first down and didn’t think it was fourth down. Either way, this was poorly managed throughout the game, and it hurt Miami.

On the fateful fourth down, Thompson’s pass to Mike Gesicki wasn’t bad but the defense was better. It was incomplete with 2:22 left. The Bills could run most of the clock out, and they did after Devin Singletary fought forward for a 7-yard gain on third-and-7.

At least that’s how they marked it on the field. You’ll never convince me he made the yard to gain, and it should have been fourth down. The Bills probably sneak it and get it anyway, or Miami probably doesn’t do anything with it in under 40 seconds. But I still would prefer to see a more legitimate ending, because it sure felt like Miami got screwed on that spot. 

Miami is the first double-digit underdog to cover the spread in the wild card round. Buffalo has been my pick all year to win the Super Bowl, but boy, let’s just hope the Dolphins had some secret sauce for them, or else this is going to be a fast exit.

Chargers at Jaguars: I Think This Just Might Be the Chargering Masterpiece

They have done it. In Justin Herbert’s 50th NFL start, the Chargers carved out their masterpiece by blowing a 27-0 playoff lead to the Jaguars in a 31-30 loss that would be shocking to most fanbases, but it was almost inevitable for the Chargers.

Not only is it the third-biggest playoff comeback and fifth-biggest comeback in NFL history, but the Jaguars pulled this one off against all odds after losing the turnover battle 5-0.

You are not supposed to beat the 3-13 Lions by going -5 in turnovers, let alone win a playoff game. But this is Chargering. The game will stand out in the record books for years to come:

  • Trevor Lawrence joins Bobby Layne, George Blanda, Joe Ferguson, and Russell Wilson as the only five quarterbacks to throw four interceptions and win a playoff game. Blanda was the only one to throw five picks. But those other four teams all had multiple takeaways in the win.
  • The Jaguars are the first team in NFL history to win a playoff game with five turnovers and no takeaways. Teams were 0-10 doing this. Jacksonville is the ninth team since 1970 to win a game doing this when you include the regular season.
  • Since 1950, NFL teams allowing 30-plus points with 5+ giveaways and no takeaways are now 3-164 (regular season and playoffs). The last win was 1970 Bills against the Jets.
  • This is the first time a team won a playoff game with a turnover margin of -5 or worse. Teams were previously 0-26 in the playoffs, and all but one lost by double digits.
  • In 50 starts, the Chargers have blown more 17-point leads (4) in Justin Herbert’s career than they did in the previous 19 seasons (3) from 2001-19 since they drafted Drew Brees.
  • The Jaguars had one comeback win from a deficit of 16+ points in their first 455 games. They have three such comebacks in their last 10 games (17 vs. Raiders, 17 vs. Cowboys, 27 vs. Chargers).
  • The Jaguars had lost 41 straight games when allowing more than 20 points. After snapping that streak against Baltimore in Week 12, they are 4-1 in such games.

But much like how the Colts didn’t really deserve a 33-0 lead against the Vikings four weeks ago, the story of this game was a fortunate start by the Chargers that they weren’t playing well enough to sustain. The Jaguars have been making comebacks lately, and we know the Chargers are the right team in the AFC to pull one off against.

Digging the 27-0 Hole

Trevor Lawrence was the quarterback who never lost a Saturday game in his career, and he never threw a first-quarter interception in the NFL, a fact I wasn’t aware of until Saturday night. But he threw three interceptions in this first quarter, a fourth in the second, and the Jaguars also muffed a punt. Lawrence joined Tom Brady (vs. 2009 Ravens) as the only quarterbacks since 2001 to turn the ball over three times in the first quarter of a playoff game.

Right from his first pass, a double-deflected ball at the line that was intercepted, you knew we might be in for an adventure. That helped Justin Herbert to an easy 18-yard touchdown drive where Austin Ekeler did most of the work on a 13-yard scoring run to take a 7-0 lead.

Lawrence was then picked off on a fourth-and-7 by Asante Samuel Jr., though I felt there was an arm grab and it could have easily been penalized. He must have been watching his dad’s tape with the 2000s Patriots for how to get away with contact in big games. The Chargers turned that into a field goal and 10-0 lead.

But after some bad luck with a double tip and no penalty call, Lawrence’s third interception (also to Samuel Jr.) was an abysmal decision. That set up a 16-yard touchdown drive that was all Ekeler runs. In one quarter of his playoff career, Herbert had more touchdown drives that started in the red zone (2) than Peyton Manning (1) had in his first 25 playoff games.

What the hell was going on out there? The Jaguars were destroying my narrative of Herbert becoming this quarterback with the weight of the world on his shoulders every postseason, and now he’s getting every break in the world. Herbert had several passes tipped and deflected in this game, yet they all kept harmlessly hitting the ground. If Lawrence threw them, they would have been picked. It was the No. 1 pick who was looking like the unlucky one.

But Herbert had a few good third-and-long throws on another touchdown drive to get a 24-0 lead. Lawrence threw his fourth pick and third to Samuel, but this was the beginning of the turning point for the game.

The Turning Point

The Chargers did not do anything with Lawrence’s fourth pick, going three-and-out. However, the Jaguars gave them the ball right back by muffing the punt return, setting Herbert up at the Jacksonville 6, a golden opportunity for a third touchdown drive that started in the red zone. Even Tom Brady would be jealous of this.

But Herbert badly missed a wide-open Keenan Allen in the end zone and the Chargers had to settle for a field goal and 27-0 lead. Would things have been different if Mike Williams (back) was active? Maybe, but he’s not 10-foot-tall either. Herbert just missed it badly.

But this sequence has a lot to do with why the Jaguars survived a five-turnover meltdown, because they basically consolidated their last two turnovers into one part of the game, and it only cost them a quick 3 points after the Chargers failed in goal-to-go.

Still, that was only one of two golden opportunities the Chargers blew in the second quarter. The next part, which officially got the comeback going, was when the Chargers got cute on a third-and-1 and tried to do a jet sweep to Michael Bandy. The timing was off, the ball was fumbled, and it nearly ended up being a disastrous turnover.

At 27-0, you still had to view it live as a “wow, Chargers are just getting everything to go their way” moment by them not losing possession and giving Jacksonville a short field. However, it was a disastrous moment as the Chargers could have put this game away with a two-minute drill and taking a 30-0 or 34-0 lead into halftime.

Instead, Jacksonville took advantage of a bad punt and short field to finally get on the board with a touchdown drive, converting a fourth-and-1 along the way, for a 27-7 deficit at halftime.

If you know the Chargers well, you know this was going to be a game again.

The Second-Half Comeback

I’m obviously not going to put this blown lead all on Herbert, but he did have some costly misfires and didn’t do much to help after the big lead, a lead that he didn’t do much to earn.

To start the third quarter, he had three straight incomplete passes at the Jacksonville 38, and the Chargers punted instead of getting more points. The Jaguars turned that into a long touchdown drive to make it 27-14. Gerald Everett caught a ball for 21 yards that was actually a drop, but the Jaguars did not challenge in time, so that was a big drive starter that helped the Chargers to a field goal to make it 30-14.

But they would never score again. Lawrence got hot, Zay Jones scored a 39-yard touchdown, and Joey Bosa got heated with his first unsportsmanlike penalty. The Chargers led 30-20 going into the fourth quarter.

But here is where head coach Brandon Staley really blew the game for his team. I even tweeted that we’re going to find out how smart he is if he acknowledges how much better a 17-point lead is than a 13-point lead is better than 10. He had to be thinking touchdown on a long drive, but the Chargers came up short just outside the 20.

There was a holding penalty that would have made it third-and-13, but the Jaguars declined. Had they knew that Staley would go for this fourth-and-3 like he should have, then maybe Doug Pederson accepts that penalty. But Staley was content with the field goal and the kiss of death known as a 13-point lead.

He got what he deserved as Dicker the Kicker remembered which team he plays for and missed a 40-yard field goal, bringing a tear to Nate Kaeding’s eye somewhere in the galaxy.

Had the Chargers been focused on the three-score lead, they could have wrapped this one up. But Lawrence continued to drive his offense and found Christian Kirk for a 9-yard touchdown with 5:25 left. Bosa was again penalized for throwing his helmet in a fit of rage after he felt the officials missed a false start on the touchdown. I certainly think they missed it too.

But by enforcing the penalty on the extra point, the Jaguars could go for two from the 1-yard line, which is the right call in that spot. Lawrence used his size to do the sneak with full extension, and the Jaguars were only down 30-28.

This was happening for sure now. Just a question of how the finish would look.

Once Herbert took a sack on first down, you knew Lawrence was getting his chance for a game-winning field goal. The Chargers went three-and-out and Lawrence had 3:09 from his own 21, plenty of time.

But a very poor decision to throw on a third-and-1 put the drive in jeopardy with 1:27 left and just out of field-goal range. I’m not sure why you wouldn’t run Travis Etienne there against the No. 32 run defense in yards per carry. On fourth-and-1, it looked like the Jaguars were going to do the trendy push sneak, and they went with a big formation that felt like trouble for them getting a push.

But with a risky call that worked out great, they pitched the ball to Etienne on the edge and he turned up the field for a 25-yard gain and even stayed in bounds to burn more clock. That set up kicker Riley Patterson for a 36-yard field goal on the final play, and he nailed it to complete the comeback and get the 31-30 win.

Doug Pederson is now 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU as a playoff underdog. This is his first playoff win without Nick Foles.

It looks like Staley is going to survive another year, but his mismanagement of Week 18 and this game, among other things this year, cast real doubt that he’s ever going to lead this team to anywhere but disappointment.

This was a game about field position early. The Chargers scored 27 points on their first seven drives because three started in the red zone and all of them started at the Los Angeles 32 or better. But they managed just one field goal on their last five drives, all of which started inside their own 25.

Once the Jaguars stopped gifting the Chargers short fields, the game completely turned around. Lawrence did a wonderful job of shaking off a brutal start in his first playoff game to deliver.

As for Herbert, he was kind of like Matt Ryan four weeks ago in Minnesota. He was more of a supporting actor than the driving force behind the lead or a significant part of the choke.

Never in doubt. But after a wild start, the Chargers remembered they are the team we thought they were, and they let Jacksonville off the hook with a Chargering masterpiece.

Seahawks at 49ers: When You Break a Sammy Baugh Record…

The first game of the weekend feels like ages ago thanks to the excessively long Buffalo game and the journey we had to take from Jacksonville’s 27-0 deficit to a win.

But San Francisco’s 41-23 win was interesting in that it produced arguably the best playoff game by a rookie quarterback since pre-World War II days in the NFL.

We knew Brock Purdy had this streak going of six straight games with multiple touchdown passes, and only Justin Herbert (2020) had done that in seven straight among rookies. We also know Purdy usually throws for 200 yards, but you have to go back a long way to find a time a rookie quarterback put up numbers like that in the playoffs and his team won.

Of the few rookie quarterbacks to win a playoff game, most did it the game manager way, like a Joe Flacco (2008) or Mark Sanchez (2009). They’re the only two to win two playoff games, but Purdy has a chance to join them after he threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns against Seattle.

  • You have to go back to Bob Waterfield in 1945 to find the last rookie quarterback to throw two touchdowns in a playoff win.
  • You have to go back to Sammy Baugh in 1937 to find the last rookie quarterback to throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns in a playoff win.
  • Hell, Baugh was the last rookie to throw for 200 yards in a win way back in 1937 too, but that’s the company Purdy keeps now.

Baugh and Waterfield did it in championship games, so you can say that’s a lot more impressive in that era than facing the 9-8 Seahawks. But Purdy belongs high on a list of best playoff debuts for any quarterback regardless of age.

Was it all pretty? No, I counted four or five risky throws that a better defense (or a luckier one) may make him pay for in future rounds. Deebo Samuel also showed his world-class YAC with a 74-yard touchdown that was all him. But I did like the improv skills that Purdy showed on his two touchdown passes to the running backs, and he made an incredible play in the fourth quarter to Brandon Aiyuk that was unfortunately dropped in the end zone as Aiyuk had to focus on getting his feet in bounds and forgot his hands.

Where the hell did they find this kid? That one incompletion there is something you won’t see many quarterbacks make in many years of playing. Like, some could play 23 years and literally never do anything close to this.

So I definitely came away intrigued even more with Purdy. As for the rest of the game, you have to say Seattle did a good job for three quarters. They survived the early Kyle Shanahan script, Geno Smith was calm in his playoff debut, they strung together plays, DK Metcalf showed up for a great game, and they even got a penalty on a late hit that set up a field goal and Seattle led 17-16 at the half.

But that Deebo YAC on a third-down short of the sticks led to a huge first down out of the break, and the 49ers were back on top 23-17 with Purdy’s 1-yard rushing touchdown. But I really thought at this point that Geno was dialed in and about to show this defense is falling apart at the wrong time. He converted a third-and-12, the Seahawks were driving into the red zone, then the ineligible man downfield penalties started hitting hard.

It was third-and-14, and one quick pressure led to Smith coughing up the ball, and Nick Bosa was there for the recovery with 2:25 left in the quarter. Total game changer and the 49ers rolled from there. The offense scored another touchdown to go up 31-17, Seattle’s line again self-destructed with penalties to bring up third-and-22, which led to a punt, and that’s when Samuel turned on the jets for the 74-yard dagger to make it 38-17.

Geno immediately threw a pick out of desperation and maybe frustration, and the 49ers just used that to burn more clock and add a field goal after Aiyuk failed to hang onto that play above. Seattle would add a touchdown to make it 41-23 but only 1:48 remained and the game ended after a failed onside kick.

An overmatched Seattle played this very well for three quarters, but when you have four different players capable of a 30-yard play for the 49ers, it was too much offense to handle.

Based on the way the other teams have looked in recent weeks, it is hard not to think the 49ers have all the right stuff to beat anyone and be the legitimate favorite to win it all. I don’t even know what we’re going to do with Purdy if he literally throws multiple touchdowns every week and wins every game on his way to a Super Bowl. He’d be leading the No. 1 scoring offense most likely since he took over. The only thing close to this is Kurt Warner’s story with the 1999 Rams, and while I’m not ready to say Purdy looks that accurate or great, it’s the only historical comparison we really have.

The kid just matched a Sammy Baugh record from 1937. What are we even supposed to do with this info? You expect it all to go horribly wrong in a game or two because he is a rookie and Kyle Shanahan is his head coach, but what if it doesn’t?

Maybe this is just their year.