The last two weeks in the NFL have been something else. Twenty-five of the 32 games had a comeback opportunity, the highest two-week total since I’ve been following this on a weekly basis. Only one game had a spread larger than 6.5 points, and only one game (Jags 38-10 vs. Chargers) was decided by more than 16 points.
So, you can say the spread and the outcomes were in alignment with the games being close as the spreads were within one score too.
I expect this to change in Week 5, and the schedule backs that up. Six games have a team favored by 7+ points this week, including the largest spread (14) for the Steelers since the 1970 merger as Kenny Pickett makes his starting debut against the Super Bowl favorites in Buffalo.
This doesn’t mean a bunch of three-score blowouts, but a lot of those teams that are heavily favored, I like them to cover as you’ll see below.
First, some of this week’s articles:
- Upset: Jets over Dolphins
- Upset: Browns over Chargers
- Why I like Steelers to cover but lose in Buffalo
- Cowboys vs. Rams preview
- How did Joe Burrow shred the Ravens in historic fashion last year?
- Week 5 Sunday player props
- MNF Raiders vs. Chiefs props
- See here for a Week 5 parlay with +510 odds
NFL Week 5 Predictions
I got my first TNF game wrong this season, because Russell Wilson is a joke in the red zone.
As I said above, I like some of the small-spread games to be won by the home underdog, including the Jets, Browns, and Commanders. It’s not that I necessarily like Washington to win that game, but it just feels like a spot where they can pick up a win to avoid going 2-15 or whatever. I don’ t like the way Tennessee has stopped scoring in the second half the last two weeks and had to hang on.
But back to my theme this week, I really like Green Bay (-8), Tampa Bay (-10), Philly (-5.5), and KC (-7.5) to all cover big spreads. Buffalo was a hard pick because you just don’t know how Pickett will play in his first start. But I know I’ve seen Josh Allen play the Steelers three times and he’s never looked like anything special. It’s easier without T.J. Watt on the field, but the Bills are also banged up at slot receiver and tight end. I’m hoping it’s at least competitive for a while and looking forward to how Pickett handles it. I still think getting him ready after the TNF loss to start at home against the Jets would have been wiser than making at Buffalo his first start, but here we go. It’s a new era in Pittsburgh.
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 