After Week 14, the bye weeks will be over, and the NFL will be down to the final four games for every team this regular season. Week 15 has some huge games, and we already had the Game of the Week on Thursday night with Detroit’s win over the Packers. It’s the first time since 1956 that the Lions had the outright best record in the NFL since 1956.
But we could see the AFC West decided Sunday night in Kansas City, and the Steelers could inch a step closer to the AFC North by avoiding their first sweep by the Browns since 1988. The Seahawks-Cardinals game is also huge for the NFC West race.
One thing I tried to take into consideration this week for picks was just how close games were in Week 13. We had 12-of-16 games decided by 1-7 points, and it should have been 13 if Jameis Winston wasn’t so damn INT happy in Denver. Then we had a 34-31 game in Detroit to start this week, so things have been really tight, so I’m thinking about some two-score outcomes this week, which might be hard given how many of these games are evenly matched and/or division games. But that was something I tried to consider when it came to picking the spreads.
This Week’s Articles
- 2024 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 14: The Amusing Role Reversal for Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in MVP Race
- Patrick Mahomes May Be Lucky But Tom Brady Is Still the LOAT (Luckiest of All Time): Part 2 – Defense Holding Leads – My Part 2 in the LOAT series looks at how each QB’s defense held (or didn’t hold) leads in close games. Part 3 should be next week, barring any setbacks, about their division rivals.
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 14 – Big expectations for Saquon Barkley, the best bet of the 2024 season that’s 12-1 so far, and a touchdown scorer parlay that even includes Xavier Worthy.
- Chargers vs. Chiefs Sunday Night Football Free Picks: AFC West Clash – Solid preview for SNF
NFL Week 14 Predictions
I had the Lions winning 27-24 (GB +3.5), so I was just off by a touchdown for both sides. Good game though. I’d be worried about Detroit’s defensive injuries. It’s likely that Dan Campbell is going to keep rolling the dice on fourth down through the playoffs, and he may be justified each time even if they don’t always make the right play call or convert. At least in the 2nd half of games he should be doing it. Can let some things slide early without giving the opponent a potential edge with field position.
LV-TB: After a scare in Carolina last week and the Raiders losing their personal Super Bowl in KC, I think both teams revert to form in this non-conference matchup and Baker leads his guys to a 7+ point win at home.
CLE-PIT: Browns haven’t won a regular-season game in Pittsburgh since 2003. Let’s keep that streak alive and see if T.J. Watt can answer Myles Garrett’s huge game in the last matchup since he was very quiet for the Steelers, and Russell Wilson threw the ball great in the snow. Just needed more protection early, and I think the Steelers may have unlocked some things about what they can do offensively last week against the Bengals. It doesn’t have to always be the moon balls, Russ. But I still think Jameis is crazy enough to keep it close, so here’s your classic Tomlin win by 1-6 points.
JAX-TEN: Will Levis hasn’t had a terrible month and I think he carves up one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Throw in Mac Jones starting for the Jags and this is one of the only times all season I feel some confidence in riding the Titans to cover.
CAR-PHI: Initially I had Carolina +13.5, a bet that would have easily won the last four weeks with two outright wins and two losses by 3 points each for the Panthers, who are getting improved play from Bryce Young. But then I started thinking about the mismatch on both sides of the ball, the quest to get Saquon Barkley the MVP and rushing title, and I changed my pick to the Eagles covering 13.5. Yeah, they’ve already barely survived the Browns (20-16) and Jaguars (28-23) at home during this winning streak. But I think you go against conventional wisdom here that the Panthers are “better now” and just take the Eagles to smash them. Even 34-20 works fine here.
ATL-MIN: Another game where I nearly changed my final pick to account for more blowouts, but I just think Kirk Cousins plays his ass off the best he can to keep his job this week. Going up against his former team. The Vikings have had some tight games the last month and you never know when Sam Darnold will offer up some turnovers. I still like the Vikings to win but for Cousins to keep it close.
NYJ-MIA: The Jets have blown so many bets (real money and hypothetical in my spreadsheets) for me in 2024. I’m tired of them. I don’t care for the Dolphins either but I’m taking them at home against a bad team.
NO-NYG: Even without Taysom Hill, I think the Saints can run the ball well against the Giants and am trusting that to cover against Drew Lock. Yeah, it’s probably the trap of the week as the Saints are like the NFC version of the Jets’ 2024 fool’s gold.
SEA-ARI: Could be another low scoring NFC West game where the 4Q is decisive. The Seahawks took the first matchup a few weeks ago. I think the Cardinals play better on offense this time and get to Geno Smith late for a win here. Tough division to figure right now though.
CHI-SF: Normally I’d like to take the team that just fired its bad head coach to get a boost. But at the same time, I think the 49ers remember this week they still have a lot of good players taking the field and Shanahan is supposed to be an elite coach. Brock Purdy will love the California weather instead of snowy Buffalo. They aren’t playing a playoff team like the Packers or Bills this week. They get back on track with a win.
BUF-LAR: This is one of those games where if the Rams win, I think it could propel them to a division title run. But I just can’t trust a team that couldn’t find the end zone at home against Miami, who gave up 255 to Saquon, who probably won’t slow down James Cook and Josh Allen. It should be another Buffalo win.
LAC-KC: Lots of changes since Week 4 when the Chiefs struggled early to come back and win 17-10. Justin Herbert will be healthier this time against a defense that is playing far worse. But the running game takes a big hit without J.K. Dobbins, and he can’t trust any receiver but Ladd McConkey. The Chiefs are better offensively now than in Week 4, but the 10 sacks allowed the last two weeks are a killer. However, it looks like Wanya Morris won’t be destroying the offense at LT this week, they should use Isiah Pacheco more in his second game back, and it’s a chance to clinch the division title at home. Give me KC, and yes, Chiefs by 1-13 points has hit in 11-of-12 games this season.
CIN-DAL: For Monday night’s battle for the 2nd-most disappointing team of 2024 (Jets are No. 1), I am taking Cooper Rush to go to 2-0 in his career against Joe Burrow. Micah Parsons leads a sack parade against Burrow, CeeDee Lamb plays like the mob isn’t holding his family hostage (see Thanksgiving game), and the Cowboys pull it off to end Week 14. Even if I’m wrong, the Bengals are still a massive disappointment with a 5-8 record and virtually no shot at the playoffs.
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 