NFL 2024 Wild Card Predictions: Legacy Shaping Edition

~ Scott

We’ve made it to the NFL playoffs and I really like this wild card slate since I don’t think any game is close to a sure thing no matter what the spreads say. Every NFC game is a rematch and we have another AFC North game between the Steelers and Ravens that I think could change the trajectory of those franchises as the 2nd-biggest game in Steelers-Ravens history after the 2008 AFC Championship Game.

Friday also saw the AP release the All-Pro teams, and the big news was Lamar Jackson getting 30 votes to 18 for Josh Allen (2 for Joe Burrow) for the first-team All-Pro quarterback selection. Unless the AP wants to reverse decades of voting standards, that should mean that Jackson will win his third MVP.

Maybe common sense won out, but I’ll just add that this only increases the pressure on Lamar to perform Saturday night. You can’t be going one-and-done as a 9.5-point home favorite to a reeling Steelers team and expect to ever get another MVP nod or have your regular seasons taken seriously.

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NFL 2024 Wild Card Predictions

I guess in the past I used to do longer previews here, but since I’ve already covered all six games other places this week, I’m just ready to recap some last second thoughts and give my final score predictions here.

Chargers at Texans (+3)

Late-night thought: Remember when Alex Smith had the game of his life (299 yards, 3 TD) in his first playoff game under Jim Harbaugh against the 2011 Saints? Remember when Colin Kaepernick had the game of his life (263 passing yards, QB record 181 rushing yards) in his first playoff game under Harbaugh against the 2012 Packers? That’d be pretty cool if Justin Herbert put on a masterpiece performance for his first NFL playoff win under Harbaugh’s guidance this afternoon.

I think the potential is there if his tackles hold up against those talented edge rushers. If you block Houston, you can pick that defense apart, which is why I like Ladd McConkey to have a big game and score in his playoff debut.

Still, I think we might be underrating Houston in the sense that they shouldn’t be expected to get crushed 31-2 like they did against the Ravens on Christmas. Between that game and 34-7 in Minnesota, they’ve had those blowouts on their resume, but this team despite all the flaws has played the Packers, Chiefs, and Lions tough this year while also beating Buffalo.

Throw in the Chargers being cursed, and it wouldn’t shock me at all to see a one-score game late. The Chargers have looked very good down the stretch but the Texans aren’t the Patriots and Raiders, and the Texans also won in this spot last year against a favored Cleveland team while their receivers outside of Nico Collins were injured.

I think it’ll be a decent game and I’m still going to trust the Chargers to pull through and win it. I like that the Chargers have yet to allow more than 20 points on the road all season long, which is getting to be one of the longest streaks in modern NFL history. It’s also a much better story to write about next week if they get to face the Chiefs for a third time.

Final: Chargers 27, Texans 20

Steelers at Ravens (-9.5)

Like I said above, I think this game could really have a huge butterfly effect on where these franchises head next. The loser could very well be on the fast track to firing their long-time head coach. If the Ravens win, it could even propel them to a Super Bowl run (finally).

The Steelers have basically repeated the 2016 AFC Championship Game in every playoff game since, so I’m over this team being anywhere near competent this time of year. They come in on a 4-game losing streak, only the third NFL playoff team to do that, and it’s hard to see things getting better here. Their saving grace is past success against Baltimore, intimate knowledge of the Ravens, (third meeting since 11/17), Zay Flowers (knee) is out, and the defense has already held this offense to its worst game of 2024.

And then there’s the Lamar Jackson playoff effect. He has to turn that around this season, but the fact that he’s admitted to being too amped up for past games and that it’s in his head this week doesn’t give me the greatest hope that he’s going to get it done.

But losing this game would be the worst yet as the Ravens are playing much better football than the Steelers, they have the No. 1 defense since Week 11 again, and I can’t stress this enough: the Steelers have allowed 31+ points in 5 straight playoff games. No other team has done that in three games. The standard is the standard.

I’ll knock the scoring down a peg out of respect for the rivalry, but I think the line is spot on.

Final: Ravens 27, Steelers 17

Broncos at Bills (-8.5)

I already got into it with my multiple previews for this game about Buffalo’s turnover regression that should happen during the playoffs. They have just 8 giveaways all year and no one but Josh Allen has lost a fumble. They’re +14 in fumble recoveries, tied for the 2nd-best out of 798 teams since 2000. Turnovers (4 of them) are why they lost to Denver at home a year ago on a Monday night. It’s the easiest, most logical way for Denver to get the upset edge here.

But I also think Bo Nix has done a good job of scoring points down the stretch and I expect Denver to exploit some things in a Buffalo defense that relies on turnovers (again, regression there too) to get the job done.

At the end of the day, I still can’t pick the rookie quarterback on the No. 7 seed on the road in an early body clock game against an experienced playoff team. But if Skylar Thompson can lose a playoff game in Buffalo by 3 points, then I think Denver can do it too.

Final: Bills 27, Broncos 24

Packers at Eagles (-4.5)

It’s Tom Brady calling a game for FOX, so it’s going to be a boring rout, right? Or does he only do that for Dallas games? Either way, I’m not overly thrilled with this one because I think the Packers have disappointed in every big game this season, and they were my Super Bowl pick before the year, mind you. They already lost to the Eagles in Brazil on a poor field. I guess there’s some drama with how Jalen Hurts will look after a few weeks out with a concussion, but he has so much talent around him that I don’t think he has to be great to win here. Just don’t offer up all those turnover opportunities like in Week 1.

Jordan Love’s elbow might be a bigger question mark. I think that could bother him in challenging a very good coverage unit. I don’t think they can rely on Jacobs as reliably as the Eagles could with Saquon.

Final: Eagles 27, Packers 16

Commanders at Buccaneers (-3)

Another Week 1 rematch, I think it goes to Tampa Bay again as the Commanders don’t have enough defense to slow down the Bucs, and I think Jayden Daniels is going to end up leading his team in rushing again as a one-man show. It’s just really hard to win in the playoffs on the road with a rookie quarterback without an elite defense. But if anyone can make this a shootout and have a chance at the end, Daniels could make this interesting.

Final: Buccaneers 30, Commanders 23

Vikings at Rams (+2.5)

I like my standalone preview for this game that tells the story of why this should be different for Minnesota from Week 8, why I still want to trust Sam Darnold to figure it out, and why I am worried that Matthew Stafford has turned into a Puka Nacua merchant in the last month and isn’t putting up yards or points.

The game moving to Arizona because of the fires is the final piece for why I like the Vikings to get the win this time.

Final: Vikings 23, Rams 17

There was a lot of playoff research I didn’t get around to this week as I learned it’s just so much work to try recapping the regular season and preparing for six playoff games in 5 days. But I’m hoping to get to it in the coming weeks.

There will be a Part 5 of the LOAT series (Mahomes vs. Brady) during the playoffs. I think I might have to wait until after the divisional round to do it instead of this coming week though.

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Published by Scott

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