It’s already Week 3 in the NFL, and we’ll see if the offensive fireworks of Week 1 return, or if we’ll get more low-scoring games with quarterback injuries like Week 2 had in abundance. Either way, it’s just two bits of information so far. Still, not many teams have shown excellence on both sides of the ball outside of the 49ers.
I can remember years ago facing backlash for using a full season’s worth of data (or multiple seasons) to draw conclusions or at least suggest things. Today, the Twitter Chart Bros don’t need more than a week or two to post stuff and act like it’s indicative of what will happen the rest of the year. After all, you could really take any two-game sample from a season and find weird things. That doesn’t mean it’s going to be the norm for anyone or any team based on what’s happened so far. I’ve also never seen any evidence that Weeks 1-2 are more predictive than Weeks 7-8 or Weeks 12-13.
It’s just two games, but that doesn’t mean some teams aren’t in need of a win in a big way this weekend. The 0-2 teams really can’t afford to start 0-3 as someone will in the AFC South between the Colts and Texans. The Chargers are also facing the scariest proposition of starting 0-3 with a game at Buffalo after already blowing their “easy home games” to the Cardinals and Raiders, both 26-14 losses. That’s rough.
But the struggles of Jordan Love and Justin Herbert have been a big part of the quarterback discourse this week after the Packers also lost on Thursday night by three touchdowns at home to the Falcons. They barely beat the Jets on Sunday in overtime too as both teams just look like bad football teams right now.
Sure, the Packers don’t have Micah Parsons, and Love lost some of his receiver depth (Wicks and Doubs; Jayden Reed injured in Week 2). Josh Jacobs also screwed things up off the field, but how much would he rush for behind this offensive line that’s been a big problem so far?
Herbert has had receiver drops, and Joe Alt hasn’t looked up to par in his return from injury at tackle. The interior line is not good. The defense has taken a step back without coordinator Jesse Minter. Jim Harbaugh hasn’t had the answers yet.
It’s a tough spot for any quarterback to be in when your receivers aren’t trustworthy, your line stinks, running game is an afterthought, and the defense isn’t special. In the past, only the elite of elite quarterbacks could really excel in that position like a Marino, Peyton, or Mahomes. That’s why it always made sense to pay the best quarterbacks only the biggest bucks while quarterbacks like Love and Herbert are close to the top salary despite not elevating enough to that level to say it’s worth it. Not to mention it’s a cost that makes it harder to build up the rest of the roster.
Alas, it’s been two weeks (three for GB). We’ll see if these teams and quarterbacks can turn it around, but it’s not looking good for Herbert and Love in 2026.
NFL Week 3 Predictions
Yep, I didn’t trust the Falcons and they proved me wrong in a big way. Another bad prime-time game this season.
CAR-CLE: I almost took the Browns but let’s go with the Panthers to get a one-score win on the road. Bryce Young upstages Predator in the clutch.
NYJ-DET: Let’s see if Geno Smith, who had some nice games in Detroit when he was with Seattle, can keep the ball away from the opponent like he has the first two weeks for the Jets. The Lions have been shaky, and I think Jared Goff is going to throw the pick (or more) to Aaron Glenn’s defense to break the drought in Glenn’s return game against his mentor. I’ll still take the Lions to win by 1-6 in the end, but I think the Jets can make life difficult on them.
JAX-NE: They haven’t met since London 2024 and much has changed since, including the coaching staffs. I’m going to cautiously pick the Jags to bounce back after the Denver loss, score enough points at home, and Maye isn’t playing well enough right now (still no A.J. Brown) to trust him to win this one.
HOU-IND: I picked the Texans to win the division, so I’m going with them to avoid 0-3. Better defense. Offense has been hit or miss so far.
LAC-BUF: It would be such a typical NFL thing for the Chargers to win in Buffalo after shitting the bed at home the first two weeks. Mike McDaniel has also had some success at scoring with his Miami offenses in Buffalo before. A lot of pressure on Herbert right now, and we know the Bills have allowed 31 points in both games. However, the Chargers have 31 points in Herbert’s last three starts. The best I can do is a cover and one-score loss on the road as I see Herbert with a 4QC chance in this one that comes up short.
KC-MIA: First road game for Mahomes since Thanksgiving in Dallas, I believe. One of the weakest opponents he’s faced in years, so I think the offense does well. Malik Willis might be good for scrambling props if they play man against his weak receivers. Chiefs covering is always tricky, so I could see a 31-21 final where Chiefs don’t cover here.
CIN-PIT: Bengals usually play better in PIT than they do at home in this rivalry. I think the defenses dominate the day, the Steelers won’t be able to run, so I love Aaron Rodgers over 34.5 pass attempts. Only concern there is he takes too many sacks and gets injured. But I just don’t see them running the ball well here with an injured Warren and that new defensive front for the Bengals.
SEA-WAS: Darnold in, Daniels out. Not sure it makes a huge difference for either team to be honest, but then I remember the way Darnold absolutely shredded this defense last year on SNF in the game Daniels foolishly got injured for being in the game so late. But I’d expect the Seahawks to win by 8+ here.
TEN-NYG: Dart is gone. I think Jameis with prep to start will play better. Still don’t trust the Titans to win games.
ARI-SF: Hard to believe this is the first time the 49ers have started 2-0 with 20-point wins. Division games are weird, so this may be a struggle more than expected, but I like them by double digits. Give me a Mike Evans TD and Kittle over in yards.
MIN-TB: Sounds like Kyler Murray is back, but I’m going to throw the Bucs a bone at home to avoid 0-3 and steal this one in the 4Q. But it’s been a rough start, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Vikings are 3-0.
BAL-DAL: Hopefully the field is good in Brazil. I remember the Ravens nearly blew a huge lead in Dallas in 2024 and only won by 3. That weighed into my pick and almost made me take Dallas ATS. But I think the Ravens recover from last week’s blown lead and get the win by 4+. No Zay Flowers is rough though. I just trust the Baltimore run offense to dominate.
NO-LV: Should be a game that goes down to the wire. I am starting to trust Tyler Shough in those moments, and I still think the Raiders are 2-0 fool’s gold. I’ll take the Saints though it could be a push on the spread.
LAR-DEN: Rams in prime time again and after a short week with Puka still injured? Denver can put Surtain on Davante. I don’t love the matchup, but I also think the Rams can dominate Bo Nix’s offense, and Stafford could pull it out late as we finally see some close-game regression start for these teams. Rams lost so many close ones last year while Denver won so many (including another last week). But I think the Rams get it done at the end of the game.
PHI-CHI: I really wanted to see what Ben Johnson can do with Tyson Bagent. But it sounds like Case Keenum is the starter Monday night and that stinks. I’d probably avoid betting on this game, but I think Eagles get it done.
The 2026 NFL season got off to an underwhelming start on Wednesday and Thursday, and I’m already sweating my Super Bowl pick of Rams over Bengals. But there is something bittersweet about watching Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford struggle to score points in their openers after they were the MVP race (by default) last year.
Speaking of awards, I’m going to drop my final picks below after the Week 1 picks. I’m usually late like this, but it’s not like I planned on picking anyone from the first two games for any of the awards this year anyway.
The NFL Kickoff Blues (NE vs. SEA, SF vs. LAR Recap)
Either defenses are way ahead of the offenses right now, or this act of not playing anyone in the preseason any snaps might finally be biting teams like the Rams in the ass. Sure, the travel was significant for the Rams and they’ll always talk about that for the Australia game. Stafford having his least effective outing as a Ram and Myles Garrett producing zero pressures while looking winded would certainly qualify for weird outlier unlikely to ever repeat itself.
But there were other questionable coaching things like how they used their new corners in coverage, and Davante Adams got one snap near the end zone after dominating in that area last year. Do the Rams think he’s washed? Very curious moves all around. Aaron Donald also didn’t play, so the supposed “super team” was far from top shape. After losing six games by a combined 21 points last year, the Rams got their asses kicked by 20 points in Week 1.
Meanwhile, hats off to the 49ers. Mike Evans looks ready to perform the deluxe Jauan Jennings route, making key catches on third down and providing a good-sized target in the end zone for Brock Purdy. George Kittle didn’t look too slow after the Achilles. They oddly limited CMC’s touches early, though it helped him break some nice runs in a good second half. Deebo looks good and they clearly understand better how to use him than the Commanders did. I kind of forgot about Deebo going back to be honest. That helps for the Pearsall injury and then their new rookie (Stribling) also got injured. But Fred Warner was awesome at linebacker in his return, and I possibly undersold this veteran team with just 9 wins. But it is a long season, and they have had McVay’s number over the years.
Shanahan vs. McVay
Shanahan leads 12-8 (12-8 ATS)
Shanahan is 8-5 SU as an underdog (10-3 ATS)
McVay is 3-3 SU as an underdog
But would you trust McVay to beat SF as a 9-pt dog like Shanahan did last year with Mac Jones? Nope.
As for the first game, what have I been saying about Drake Maye? Terrible in crunch time, doesn’t handle good defenses well, and I wasn’t sure swapping Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte for A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs was going to have a huge impact on him because of how well the other two played with him last year.
Sure enough, Brown gets injured and will miss 4-6 weeks. Doubs was horrible with a fourth-quarter drop that I honestly think could be a worse drop for Maye than any drop by a receiver in Tom Brady’s 20-year career with the Patriots. It was that bad and it led to another bad interception, though he saved the worst one for last with the game on the line with a game-tying FG in his back pocket. Just an inexcusable decision and throw.
Meanwhile, Drew Lock led the only fourth-quarter lead change in the last five NFL games after the Seahawks lost Sam Darnold on the opening drive. Damn. At least it doesn’t sound like more than a 1-2 week injury for Darnold.
But the Patriots are at a real risk of starting 1-3 or worse this month, playing several of the teams who beat them last year. I had them penciled in for 10-7 and the No. 7 seed, but you should absolutely be worried about Maye in crunch time as he’s now 1-8 at 4QC. And their insistence on running on early downs is what I believe is their way of protecting him from taking bad sacks or throwing bad picks cause he gets impatient and tries to play hero ball at times.
That’s why I didn’t rank him as a top 10 QB going into the season. I can only go by what we’ve seen, and he’s just not there yet.
But in watching two prime-time bores, does anyone else feel like the best part of the NFL regular season these days is that witching hour around 3:20-4:20 PM ET on Sunday? When you get that block of 8-10 games and there are several one-score games going at once and some dramatic things happen. That anymore is the highlight of the week most of the time if you ask me. These prime-time games almost seem purposely inept offensively for gambling reasons, and that’s soured me out on even trying to build parlays or collect game script data like I should be doing.
We’ll see if the overall trend in Week 1 is poor offense around the NFL, or if it’s just a case of Maye can’t figure out Seattle, the Seahawks lost their QB on drive 1, and the Rams and 49ers were sent to Australia for no good reason.
NFL 2026 Week 1 Picks
Couldn’t get a spread win on either game so far but here’s hoping for some better games this Sunday and Monday night.
BUF-HOU: Josh Allen is 0-4 as a starter in Houston in his career. It’s still Joe Brady’s offense vs. DeMeco Ryans’ defense, and while a C.J. Stroud disaster-class scares me on the other side of the ball, I think Houston can pull it off here.
CHI-CAR: Which team regresses harder in close games? I still think the Bears are clearly the better team and I trust Caleb more than Bryce Young.
CLE-JAX: I think the Browns have potential to be bottom 3 on both sides of the ball. I see Liam Coen getting his offense going early this season in Year 2, and I like the Jags by 9+ points.
ATL-PIT: The Steelers have to take advantage of a team going into Week 1 with a third-string QB and without its top pass-rushing duo. I think Aaron Rodgers plays well, and Mike McCarthy knows what Cooper Rush can and can’t do. Steelers by a TD or more.
NYJ-TEN: Robert Saleh revenge game. I think he puts the heat on Geno, and Cam Ward has a nice day to get a home win.
NO-DET: Saints could be a surprise team but I still like the Lions at home with that offense putting up enough to win by 7+.
BAL-IND: I see the Colts putting up a fight (Steichen has had success vs. BAL) but the Ravens redeem themselves with Tyler Loop providing a game-winning field goal to win by 3 points.
TB-CIN: Might not be a 50+ point shootout and probably shouldn’t be if the Bengals want to start thinking they’re moving in the right direction defensively. But I think they handle business here and start 1-0.
WAS-PHI: I see Jayden Daniels giving the Eagles a scare but the home team wins by 1-5.
GB-MIN: I like Kyler Murray’s debut game to be spoiled by the Pack with a close win.
MIA-LV: Nothing like matching up the two rookie coaches with the worst WR rooms in the NFL in Week 1. Brock Bowers out too. But I’m going to put some faith in Kirk Cousins over the unpredictability of Malik Willis and that new-look Miami team. Hell, the unpredictability might be a reason to pick Miami but let’s just go with the home team with the OC-turned-HC who won the Super Bowl.
ARI-LAC: I think Mike LaFleur’s Cardinals give the Chargers a scare in their first game without Jesse Minter as DC, but Herbert plays really well and they win by 1-9.
DAL-NYG: One of my key upsets this week, I like John Harbaugh to win his debut with the Giants with the defense leading the way after some dumb Dallas mistakes.
DEN-KC: Could be your classic Kansas City finish where the opponent covers but the Chiefs win by 1-2 points. But it sounds like Josh Simmons won’t play at left tackle, and I said after Super Bowl 59 that I am done picking the Chiefs in games where they face an elite pass rush without a starting LT. I think it’s absolutely malpractice to go into a season opener with an undrafted rookie LT with no real experience at the position to go up against Nik Bonitto in Mahomes’ first game back from a torn ACL. Broncos usually play KC tough anyway under Payton, so I think they can win this one while the Chiefs can do better in the upcoming games on the schedule.
NFL 2026 Season Award Predictions
My final picks for the 2026 NFL awards:
MVP: Justin Herbert
OPOY: Ja’Marr Chase
DPOY: Will Anderson Jr.
OROY: Carnell Tate
DROY: Rueben Bain Jr.
Comeback Player: Patrick Mahomes
Protector of the Year: Penei Sewell
Coach: Jesse Minter, Ravens
For MVP, I’ll just say Joe Burrow is my most-bet player and I really do believe he can win it. But after the way my final 2026 predictions played out with the Bengals getting a wild card and the Chargers winning the AFC West, and the way I like Ja’Marr Chase for OPOY, I think sanity would win out in that scenario and Herbert would get it when it’s perceived that the defense improving a lot is a reason for the Bengals to return to the playoffs. And the offense takes a step forward while the defense goes back a little for the Chargers.
But I’m sure there will be plenty of arguments for that to come, and hopefully my picks are in the conversation somewhere.
It’s that time of year for my final NFL predictions for the 2026 season. I got cut off only about a third of the way through my detailed team previews because of a budget cut on the site that let me write as many words as I wanted the last three years. That was an unexpected bummer.
Then I got sick in August, which further delayed things. So, I didn’t get a full look at all the teams I wanted to, but I feel ready for this season to start, and maybe instead of devoting so many hours a week to that kind of writing, I can work on my drive stats database I’ve been yearning to build for years.
Someday I may predict the right Super Bowl outcome, but I cannot imagine anyone had Seahawks (+6000) over Patriots (+8000) for 2025 based on those preseason odds. However, I will not include the Packers for the third year in a row.
For a more recent mini-preview (read: 4,000 words) of the 2026 season, I did just cover 10 burning questions, including whether the Seahawks can repeat, if the Rams can be the superteam that gets the job done in February, and if the Chiefs’ dynasty is over.
My theme for 2026 is we get to see if 2025 was a changing of the guard or a façade of one. I think it’s going to be the latter, and the oddsmakers seem to agree as none of the record seven new division winners are favored to repeat in the division in 2026.
Change and the NFL are pretty synonymous. You have 10 new head coaches and 21 new offensive coordinators in the league this year. Those are abnormally high numbers, so things could look quite different on that fact alone, especially when you’re swapping out some of the longest-tenured coaches in the league like Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, and Sean McDermott.
That’s why I think, and have predicted below, that we could probably see a record-tying seven new division winners. With that said, on with the predictions. I think you know which players have come and gone this year, so I’m going to stick more to specific predictions on what I think can happen with these teams this year.
One thing I’ve learned about doing this since 2011 is that you can get jaded over thinking you have a team figured out in the summer. Then by the time Week 7 comes, they’re playing a big game on the schedule where six of the players you thought were important are all injured, benched, or traded. That’s the reality of the NFL. It’d be incredible if you can turn off injuries, but they’re inevitable and unpredictable.
Granted, you can probably pencil in Josh Simmons, Christian Watson, and Christian McCaffrey for some ailments this year. But injuries remain the great equalizer.
NFL 2026 Predictions: Choose your fighter.
NFC WEST
1. Los Angeles Rams (14-3)
The other big theme this year is the Rams’ pursuit of a super team to end the streak where teams with +500 preseason Super Bowl odds or better are 0-for-20 at winning the Super Bowl since 1996.
This team probably should have gone the distance last year, but they blew the No. 1 seed by blowing leads of 16 and 19 to the Eagles and Seahawks, and they underperformed as a big favorite in losses to the Panthers, Falcons, and 49ers with Mac Jones. The secondary was an issue, but they addressed that by adding two corners from the Chiefs. Okay, don’t love that idea, but making the pass rush better with Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald is the real key here. If Donald is 75% of what he was, that’s going to be something to watch.
The offense should still be great too, though I have some concerns if Davante Adams (old) gets injured again, or if Puka Nacua goes nuts off the field or gets disciplined by the league with some stuff out there that’s not great. But if everyone is healthy, they’re fine.
What can bring it all down? McVay’s weird conservatism in big spots, and of course special teams, which were terrible last year and cost them multiple games. You can be the best team in football and still watch your season burn because of an error on special teams. Watch the 1998 Vikings for proof of that.
They’re not going to challenge 20-0 or the scoring record. But I think they make amends for last year’s losses and get wins over the Eagles and Seahawks this year to make up the difference for the record they should have had in 2025.
2. Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
Repeating is hard because you usually have to do it a different way, and I don’t think the Seahawks have elevated their roster the way the 2004 Patriots did by adding Corey Dillon at running back. In fact, the Seahawks lost their Super Bowl MVP back and replaced him with a rookie while also losing their offensive coordinator.
But I do want to see if Sam Darnold has a post-1986 Phil Simms or post-2007 Eli Manning type of bump in efficiency and confidence now that he’s a champion who made it through a playoff run with no turnovers. I think JSN is less lethal this year, but they can open things up more by getting Rashid Shaheed better involved as a deep threat. They seemed to only understand how to use him on special teams after that trade was made midseason.
Defense should still be top tier but maybe not No. 1 in scoring again as I do trust Macdonald there, and the core is still young and growing. I think of all the teams that took a considerable leap last year, Seattle regresses the least, but I don’t see another fluke 2PC to beat the Rams in December, so I think the Rams take care of business in those late games and that provides the final push to win the NFC West for LA.
I originally had Seattle at 12-5 and added a win somewhere.
3. San Francisco 49ers (9-8)
Can you really bet on Kyle Shanahan in an even-numbered year when you look at 2018, 2020, and 2024? Even in 2022, they started 3-4 and were bailed out by the CMC trade and Brock Purdy surprisingly being good for a Mr. Irrelevant rookie. But it just seems like every other year this team falls off a cliff, and mass injury has been a culprit.
Flash forward to today, and you no longer have Jauan Jennings or Brandon Aiyuk at WR. Ricky Pearsall is injured and out. They brought in Mike Evans, coming off his worst season (injured already too). George Kittle is coming off a playoff Achilles injury, so I expect him to be worse this year. CMC already struggled to hit big plays last year but made it through that huge workload they gave him. I have fears he won’t survive this whole season. The defense is getting Fred Warner and Nick Bosa back, but lost Saleh as coordinator again. Still don’t love the secondary.
I think 9-8 is a fair compromise between not completely falling apart but still not returning to the playoffs. The schedule has enough easy games to get to a winning record, and I’ve always been pro-Purdy, but this goofy offseason with the injuries and the owner seeking $160 bareback sex in an Ohio trailer park, combined with Shanahan’s mysterious car accident they tried to cover up just reeks of a cursed team that shouldn’t experience any postseason glory.
4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13)
A money-laundering operation to boost stats for Trey McBride and Michael Wilson. That’s how you could describe the 2025 Cardinals once Jacoby Brissett took over, and maybe that’s how they play in 2026 too. I will note Matt LaFleur’s team moved the ball really well in the preseason and they added Jeremiah Love to the backfield, so if he somehow pulled off a good record in a brutal division, he should probably be Coach of the Year.
But I just don’t see Brissett and that defense leading to many wins for this team against this schedule.
AFC WEST
1. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
Yeah, while the Chiefs and Broncos fans are in a pissing match going into Week 1, I think the Chargers sneak out of this one with their first division title since 2009. It’s the same 11-6 record as the last two years, but I’m accounting for two things:
1. Some defensive regression after losing Jesse Minter to the Ravens.
2. In 2024, Ladd McConkey was Justin Herbert’s only good receiver. In 2025, the receivers played better, but the offensive tackles were injured. What if 2026 is the year the receivers are deeper and the OTs are healthy? With Mike McDaniel taking over as OC, you could see more big plays and unleashing Herbert’s arm in ways Greg Roman wouldn’t, so his best season (MVP?) is absolutely on the table here.
Of course, it’s the NFL, so even if those offensive players stay healthy, the defense could be a mash unit that falls to the bottom third of the league. But I trust Jim Harbaugh, and I think OC is the job McDaniel was made for. Not a head coach. I think it works out for them and they sneak past the Chiefs and Broncos to win the AFC West.
I know everyone is pointing to the brutal schedule in Weeks 3-10 but I think the soft beginning and end can be capitalized on, and they’ll win some of those tough games in the middle too. Does it finally lead to a playoff win? Well, find out at the bottom.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (10-7)
I didn’t get a chance to write the article “Why did the Chiefs miss the playoffs?” that was going to have a lot of detailed stats and comparisons between 2018-25. However, I think pointing out these five plays is a pretty telling summary:
Travis Kelce wipes out Xavier Worthy on the first pass play of the season in Brazil and tears his labrum.
Kelce turns a go-ahead touchdown pass in the fourth quarter into a red zone interception vs. Eagles.
Trevor Lawrence falls on the ground after the snap and still gets up and runs for a game-winning touchdown.
Kelce turns a 20-yard catch in the fourth quarter against Houston into a game-sealing interception.
Mahomes scrambles out of the pocket with two third-string tackles on the field and tears his ACL while trying to throw a pass away.
Anything that could go wrong did go wrong for the Chiefs last year. Even opposing kickers made 31-of-32 field goals (96.9%) while Harrison Butker missed nine field goals or extra points.
The Chiefs have been declining on third down for the last four years, but 2025 was rock bottom with the offense slipping to No. 22 and the defense to No. 29, creating the first negative conversion differential in the Mahomes era.
I recently wrote about the Chiefs’ struggles to find Phase III weapons for Mahomes when they’re still relying on his Phase I tight end, who has one foot in retirement. Rashee Rice is not trustworthy at all, we don’t know if Xavier Worthy is actually good at this league yet, and you can’t even rely on left tackle Josh Simmons to be there so far in his career.
It’s not a pretty picture in Kansas City as you see the effects of poor cap management and drafting catching up with this roster. With that said, they’re still a prime candidate for positive regression after going 1-10 in close games last year with four blown leads against a tough schedule. The Chiefs were rarely down by double digits in 2025. They just were one of the least clutch teams you’ll ever see, a total departure from 2024 when they were 12-0 in such games.
That’s why I think even if opening night against Denver is bad, they can beat up on the weak teams they rarely got to see (and still smoked with Mahomes) last year, and that should be enough to get to 10-7.
But I think when they play the Seahawks and Rams, you are going to see why this team’s absolute best-case scenario is getting smacked in the Super Bowl by one of those teams. That’s why they need to go back to the drawing board for 2027 as they’re not ready to get back to the top of the league.
3. Denver Broncos (9-8)
Including the playoffs, Denver was 8-2 at game-winning drive opportunities, which ties the single-season record for most GWDs (8). But that makes them ripe for regression this year, and the way they returned basically the same roster plus Jaylen Waddle (No. 2 on a meaningless stat team with constant nagging injuries) just makes me think we will see similar results, except those 13-11 and 10-7 wins over the Jets and Raiders suddenly become losses against better competition as the West divisions play each other.
They’re too good to totally fall apart, but what an early schedule with Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, Chargers, and Seahawks. Phew.
I’m still not sure what to make of Bo Nix. He seems to be elite at avoiding sacks. Sean Payton can put the ball in his hands a ton and win games, but they’re still mostly low-scoring games where he comes back at the end with a great drive or two. His efficiency is not up to par yet.
Also, this YPA stat for Nix is one of the weirdest splits I’ve ever seen:
Bo Nix:
• 9-0 with YPA above 7.5 • 1-9 with YPA between 6.51-7.49 • 15-2 with YPA of 6.5 or lower
But I think it’s your classic case of a team taking a step back after a run of close wins to get a No. 1 seed no one saw coming. I also am not a big fan of that Jason Licht-type strategy of bringing the whole band back together plus one addition of a wideout I think is not a championship-caliber player in Waddle.
4. Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)
I predict rookie Fernando Mendoza takes over for Kirk Cousins before Halloween. Maybe even before Columbus Day or whatever the fvck they call it these days. I just don’t see much going for an offense with a quarterback who can’t move and a bottom two wide receiver corps. There’s only so many plays you can design for Ashton Jeanty (already injured) and tight end Brock Bowers.
But I’ll be curious to see what Mendoza can do in a Kubiak offense. They’re just not ready to win games this year, and I think they end up taking Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) in the 2027 draft.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers (11-6)
I guess I can’t quit picking the Packers as the Five-Year Rule creeps into Year 4 for Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur. For a brief moment, they looked like the best team in the NFL last year, then they lost two key difference makers (Tucker Kraft and Micah Parsons) to ACL tears and never won another game.
My thought is what if Kraft and Parsons are back in time for the most important games? What if losing WR depth like Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks actually helps Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed, and Christian Watson play better in better defined roles for Love? Josh Jacobs is a piece of shit, allegedly, but I don’t think that makes or break their season.
I still like what the Packers are selling here in what should be a hotly contested race.
2. Detroit Lions (10-7)
An easier schedule and a healthy return of Sam LaPorta should help the Lions get back to the playoffs. But while I think losing David Montgomery makes it more likely Jahmyr Gibbs can win OPOY, I think it hurts their depth and keeping him fresh. I’m also curious to see how moving Penei Sewell to the left pans out.
Defense, it’s still on Aidan Hutchinson to deliver a great season. Don’t expect greatness from that unit but good enough to win 10 games. Just think Green Bay has more going for it to get the head-to-head win at Lambeau in Week 18 to win the division. Possible SNF Game 272 right there.
3. Chicago Bears (10-7)
Another regression candidate after the Bears won a record 7 games after trailing after the 2-minute warning in 2025. But my thought process is what if Caleb Williams improves in his second year of Ben Johnson’s system and the second year for Colston Loveland and Luther Burden in this league? What if losing D.J. Moore makes Williams realize Burden is the real deal and can be the Amon-Ra St. Brown in this offense? His numbers throwing to him are way better than two years of throwing to Rome Odunze.
Sure, the close wins and leading the league in turnover differential make the Bears a prime candidate for regression and a bad record. But keep in mind the Bears were only 7-6 at GWD opportunities including the playoffs. That’s a great record in the context of league average, but it’s not screaming they have to regress to 1-10 or the ridiculousness the 2025 Chiefs went through after 2024. They still lost a lot of close ones, including the 49ers late in the year and the Rams’ playoff game even after that miracle Hail Mary.
Safety Dillon Thieneman was one of my favorite picks in the first round of the draft. I trust Johnson and Williams enough to figure this out to get to 10 wins. We’ll see where that lands for the playoffs though.
4. Minnesota Vikings (9-8)
I do see the NFC North producing four teams with a winning record for the second year in a row, which would join the 1935 West, 2023 AFC North, and 2025 NFC North as the only four divisions in history to do that.
Could we see the Vikings win the division? Sure, if Kevin O’Connell can go 13-4 and 14-3 in his first years with Kirk Cousins (2022) and Sam Darnold (2024), then going 12-5 or better with Kyler Murray is possible. Especially when you’re giving Murray the best receiving corps and defense of his career.
But Murray has bugged me for years in that I think he’s totally content with who he is and doesn’t strive for greatness. That’s why there was such little progress in seven years in Arizona. So, in a tough division, I think 9-8 is fair enough but do see the potential for more.
I also think that makes Murray a great value candidate for Comeback Player of the Year at +650 odds as some in the media seem determined to downplay Mahomes (+150), the favorite. If Murray has a glow-up year, he likely wins it.
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
My first run through had the Ravens finishing 15-2, then I realized that’s too many wins for a rookie coach. But I think Lamar Jackson stays healthy, they blow fewer leads (Chargers only blew two under Jesse Minter in 2024-25), and Derrick Henry still has another fantastic season in him minus the fourth-quarter fumbles. The kicker hopefully doesn’t blow it this time too.
But I am curious to see if new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle asks Jackson to throw the ball more often this year. Get Zay Flowers more targets. More Mark Andrews with Likely gone. More short, quick throws.
I like the addition of Trey Hendrickson as a big-time edge rusher they’ve been lacking the last few years. I think the new interior offensive line will be fine. Don’t love the wideout depth but maybe one of those rookies (Ja’Kobi Lane?) will be a big positive.
Just very curious to see what this team looks like without Harbaugh after all those years.
2. Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)
They returned basically the entire offense minus Noah Fant (no biggie), so it should be business as usual there. Joe Burrow just has to stay healthy (redundant). The focus should be on the defense, which added four new starters. Dexter Lawrence is exactly the kind of player I’d say is overvalued and won’t have an impact worth the No. 10 pick, but we’ll see what he does.
The Bengals could be the 2025 Patriots this year. That team was favored to win 11 games when the schedule came out, and the 2026 Bengals were favored to win 15. It doesn’t look like that easy of a schedule, but you never know when those games against the Steelers turn into playing rookie Drew Allar with Germie Bernard as his No. 1 receiver instead of Aaron Rodgers and a full arsenal.
Zac Taylor should be coaching for his job here. He can’t miss the playoffs for a fourth year in a row. I still think Baltimore is better and will win the division, but I like the schedule and defensive additions enough to trust the Bengals one more time for 11-6.
The only question is would a wild card with the defense clearly being the improved unit be enough for voters to give Joe Burrow his DEI MVP even if his numbers are a step below 2024? As long as Dan Orlovsky is one of those voters, I think we know the answer to that. That’s why Burrow is my most-bet player for MVP.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
They finally got rid of Mike Tomlin after nine seasons without a playoff win. However, my ambition to make this a year where the Steelers improve to win 11-12 games (and maybe a playoff game) or implode with their worst record since 2003 didn’t come true. I just couldn’t do it. I like the roster too much but still not enough to go big in a loaded division, so 10-7 and fighting for the last wild card it is.
I think Aaron Rodgers plays better than he did last year now that he’s in a familiar offense with more than one good wideout. Let’s not forget McCarthy won 12 games in three years in a row with Dak in Dallas. He’s not a bad coach at all. Just not sure he’s got the goods to squeeze more out of this team than the typical 9-10 wins, no playoff win that Tomlin mastered the last decade.
But I think they’ll play hard for Rodgers in his final season and at least be entertaining to watch.
4. Cleveland Browns (3-14)
Woof, I think you’re going to see why you don’t hire a 60-year-old rookie coach in the NFL. It’s not all Todd Monken’s fault as he inherits an abysmal quarterback situation you can’t win from, and they traded Myles Garrett and lost Jim Schwartz. Real potential for a team that ranks 30th or worse on both sides of the ball here.
The only bright spots I see: Harold Fannin Jr. should catch 90+ balls and Jared Verse will have the quietest 8-to-10 sack season you’ll ever see.
Maybe they can get Arch Manning and a new coach in 2027.
NFC EAST
1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-7)
It might sound crazy but I think Jalen Hurts plays better without A.J. Brown this year. It happened in Detroit in 2016 after Calvin Johnson retired. Matthew Stafford had a better year, because you no longer have to worry about feeding someone his targets. Just throw to the open man, and in Hurts’ case, his success seems tied to who his offensive coordinator is, and they should be better in that area this year, which also bodes well for Saquon Barkley, who had a down year too.
But I think Makai Lemon and Wicks can help ease the loss of Brown, and it’s a career-year opportunity for DeVonta Smith as the new No. 1. They still have a really good line and defense too. Winnable division. In fact, they were the only team to repeat as division champion in 2025 (first time for the NFC East since 2004), and they’re the only one to be favored to repeat in 2026.
I could see a step back and no longer in real Super Bowl contention, but I think they still have enough to win the NFC East.
2. Dallas Cowboys (9-8)
A lot of new pieces on defense, including rookie safety Caleb Downs, could mean a quick turnaround after 2025’s expectedly poor job after trading Micah Parsons right before the season. If they click, then the offense should still be good (injuries worry me as the receiving corps isn’t great if you take away Pickens or Lamb), so you could see a return to the playoffs if they can sweep the Eagles.
But I think I’ve just grown bored with the Dak era, which is a repackaging of the Romo era at this point. So I don’t set very high expectations at all for Dallas anymore.
3. Washington Commanders (8-9)
I want to believe in Jayden Daniels as an MVP-caliber quarterback but 2025 gives you pause. Granted, he lost a lot of weapons to injuries, he was injured multiple times, and the defense still stunk. But they’ve turned over much of the defense, and Stefon Diggs should be a high-catch rate target for him to go with Terry McLaurin.
Sneaky potential to get back on the winning side of things if Daniels can play like he did as a rookie, and if Dan Quinn coaches like he thinks he’s getting fired if they’re not good. But I’m skeptical they’re going to have a winning season.
4. New York Giants (7-10)
You’ll see me repeat this two more times about the Saints and Titans, but one of the easiest picks for a new playoff team is matching up a second-year quarterback with a better coach after that quarterback didn’t have a great rookie year.
The Giants apply, and John Harbaugh was a good hire in a new situation where he can help change the culture. Plenty of pieces on defense for him, though I wish they drafted Caleb Downs or Sonny Styles instead of Arvell Reese, who didn’t force a single takeaway in college. Very skeptical of that top 10 pick.
But my biggest problem is the fit here. What bothered Harbaugh the last few years in Baltimore? Blowing leads and his quarterback out with injuries. What hurt the Giants in 2025? Blowing leads and his quarterback (Jaxson Dart) has a fetish for visiting the blue medical tent on an almost weekly basis.
The Giants get their injured weapons back, but can we trust Cam Skattebo to stay healthy? Malik Nabers to show no ill effects from a torn ACL? Dart to protect himself? He moved the ball well at times last year, but he didn’t really seize the moment in the close games they played, and the Giants were awful at closing games. Not exactly Harbaugh’s specialty in the 2020s.
It wouldn’t surprise me if it worked out, but I just can’t get behind them yet until I see Dart showing consistency and avoiding the injury report.
AFC EAST
1. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
I’m not a fan of promoting a coach who was part of the problem for why you didn’t get to the Super Bowl the last few years. But Joe Brady gets the job, meaning the offense should be consistent, which isn’t a bad thing given the results. Maybe adding D.J. Moore, who worked with Brady in Carolina, will help get them back to throwing outside the numbers and down the field more like when they had Stefon Diggs. Still want to see Dalton Kincaid stay healthy and play more snaps too.
But the biggest changes in replacing Sean McDermott come on defense with Jim Leonhard taking over as first-time coordinator. He was in Denver the last few years, though he had his most success as a player in Rex Ryan’s blitz-heavy systems, so I think he could bring a more volatile mix to the Bills.
Adding Bradley Chubb wasn’t one of those big moves like trying to get Myles Garrett, Maxx Crosby, or even Trey Hendrickson, but it could be better than Joey Bosa last year. Still, in another year where the Chiefs may not be in their way in January, we need to make sure the Bills can still get past teams like the Ravens, Bengals, and Broncos in January before we pencil them in for that elusive Super Bowl.
For that matter, they have to make sure they take the division back from the Patriots first, who only needed two seasons to get to the Super Bowl with Drake Maye. If the Bills fall flat again offensively in Houston in Week 1 like the last two seasons, it’ll be hard to take them seriously as a team that’s going to be demonstrably different in 2026.
The fear when you simply make an in-house promotion. At least they went outside for defensive vision.
2. New England Patriots (10-7)
Schedule merchants or serious contenders? We’ll find out in 2026 as the Patriots have to play the Seahawks, Steelers, Jaguars, Bills, and that’s just the first four weeks that include 3-of-4 teams they lost to last year. They also have to play the Bears, Packers, Lions, Chargers, Bills again, Chiefs, and Denver (hopefully with Bo Nix this time). Won’t be talking about an easy schedule this time.
Does replacing Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte with A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs help? Yeah, I think it does, which is why Drake Maye could actually have a better season than he did in 2025 against a tougher schedule, but he’ll get denied MVP love because the record won’t be as good. Funny how that works.
Also, I’d throw some cold water on thinking the receivers are a huge upgrade as he had a very efficient connection with Diggs, who caught 83.3% of his targets last year, a career year for someone who is over 70% for his career. A.J. Brown is more like a 64% receiver with no seasons above 70%. He wants more targets down the field, and he’s had success before under coach Vrabel in Tennessee, though that wasn’t a Josh McDaniels offense.
If Brown is properly motivated after what happened in Philly in 2025, I could see it being a really good fit. It’s not 2004 Terrell Owens or 2007 Randy Moss, but it could be nice. I just think people are overlooking how well Diggs played with Maye, and Boutte made some deep catches that Doubs may not necessarily get.
But it looks like a more talented offense this year, and you figure more touches for Kyle Williams and TreVeyon Henderson. The offensive line has to be better of course, and Maye has to get the ball out faster against better defenses. I’m still not sold he can get it done at a high level against top defenses, or that his game isn’t linked to well-timed deep shots schemed up by McDaniels.
But we’ll see where things go after that Super Bowl loss. If they start off poorly, that locker room might be looking funny at Vrabel’s message after his affair with Dianna Russini was exposed this offseason.
No Coach of the Year award for him this year.
3. New York Jets (5-12)
You hire Geno Smith to help you to a No. 1 pick in the draft like he did for the Raiders last year, then he goes out there and wins a few games with better weapons and positive regression on defense that actually produces some interceptions after 0 in 17 games last year.
I think the Jets are going to stink, but I also think they’ll win enough games against that schedule to take themselves out of the No. 1 pick. Go figure.
4. Miami Dolphins (3-14)
How many times am I going to do this with Miami? I pick them to win a few games, then they turn in the most meaningless 7-win season you’ll ever see. Still haven’t won a playoff game since the 2000 season and that’s not changing this year.
I’m intrigued by Malik Willis based on how he looked in Green Bay, but it’s malpractice to put him in an offense with Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert, and some third-round rookies like Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas as his wide receivers. Worst group in the league. Either them or Las Vegas.
I don’t think the defense is anything special either, so it’ll be hard to get a fair read on Willis this season. But at least it’s not another year of Tua Tagovailoa.
NFC SOUTH
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
I actually think Baker Mayfield getting paid this week takes some of the chip off his shoulder this season, because I thought he’d ball out after betting on himself and getting that $60M+ AAV extension after the season. That’s not to say he’s going to slack off now, but I think you had a bigger edge without paying him before Week 1.
Still, I think a healthy Mayfield with Emeka Egbuka replacing Mike Evans as the full-time WR1 and a healthier Godwin/McMillan should lead to a fine season for the offense. I think Rueben Bain Jr. proves he should have been a top 10 pick and wins Defensive Rookie of the Year with 9+ sacks to help the defense.
I’ll still trust the Bucs to win the NFC South again. I wanted to pick someone else but just couldn’t do it. Bowles is coaching for his job and they get it done.
2. New Orleans Saints (6-11)
Another team I wanted to pump up as a surprise playoff team but just couldn’t justify it in the end. Tyler Shough did good things last year, though he did it against all teams without a winning record. What happens this year when he plays good teams? They drafted Jordyn Tyson, but living up to the worst fears pre-draft, he’s already injured.
Don’t love the rest of the skill players after Olave, don’t love the defense either. I’ll understand it if this works out, but this working out is likely Shough continuing to win some close games and the Saints squeezing out a 9-8 division title in the league’s weakest division.
3. Carolina Panthers (5-12)
They were in a home playoff game and leading the Rams late last year, but I think it’s smoke and mirrors. Close-game regression finally comes for Bryce Young, who still hasn’t had a true breakout year. More than that, you’re looking at a team that’s banged up in the trenches with multiple injuries to the offensive line before Week 1, they lost Rico Dowdle, and they lost Nic Scourton on a defense that still wasn’t anything special.
Easiest pick this year for a team to regress and miss the playoffs after making it last year. And I don’t know what you do with Bryce Young’s contract. I guess draft his replacement and bring him back for a fifth season after it hopefully lights a fire under him a la short king Drew Brees when the Chargers drafted Philip Rivers in 2004.
4. Atlanta Falcons (4-13)
I like Kevin Stefanski, but Tua going to the Falcons probably turns Atlanta into the NFC’s Mami. That mean starting 1-5 before stumbling to the most meaningless 6-7 win season you’ll ever see. Sure, Tua might get some gaudy completion percentage stats in an offense with these great weapons, but he’s never beating the good teams and doing anything relevant in the playoffs.
Michael Penix Jr. needs to play this year to see what they have there. We haven’t seen enough yet. Then on defense, you lose James Pearce Jr. to suspension and Jalon Walker for a while to injury. They were supposed to lead your pass rush. Not ideal.
But at least Bijan Robinson and Drake London will put up some numbers for Stefanski.
AFC SOUTH
1. Houston Texans (10-7)
The defense should still be great for DeMeco Ryans. This is really on C.J. Stroud to step up and earn that big extension. He played his best in his rookie year, he’s had awful luck with the health of his receivers, but he still has Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. Drake Maye was able to get some valuable catches out of Kayshon Boutte last year. They added David Montgomery at running back and a few new offensive linemen starters.
What happened to the Stroud who was elevating his teammates in 2023? We need to see that return, and with the same offensive coordinator (Nick Caley) in town, I’m not sure it’s that different.
But I’m still banking on that defense to lead the way to 10 wins and the division title.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
Another team that went from 4-13 to 13-4 last year, I think the Jaguars take a step back in a division that should be stronger. They piled up five wins late in the year between sweeping the Titans, Colts (Daniel Jones injured) and annihilating the Jets. I still can’t get over the mistakes the Chiefs made in that loss on MNF that gave some early legitimacy to the Jaguars’ season.
But I see a team with unsettled skill positions, lost Etienne at RB, not sure what Travis Hunter is yet on either side of the ball, and I still don’t think Trevor Lawrence is ever going to ascend to elite status even though I guess it’s possible he picks it up in Year 2 of Liam Coen’s system.
But much like how they went from winning a playoff game to missing the playoffs in Year 2 of Doug Pederson in 2023, I think this team finishes 9-8 and second place at best in the AFC South.
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-9)
Was the first half of 2025 just a mirage when Daniel Jones was leading one of the most efficient offenses in NFL history? Was that their only shot after they swapped Michael Pittman Jr. for another veteran possession receiver in Keenan Allen while Jones is expectedly slower after rupturing his Achilles? Not to mention another year of tread on the tire for Jonathan Taylor.
But while I’m skeptical of the Colts, I will say I think tight end Tyler Warren has All-Pro potential this year. If you’re not sold on Alec Pierce as WR1 and think Jones will want to dump the ball off quicker this season post-injury, then using Warren in really inventive ways could be a way forward in this offense.
Defensively, I’m just not seeing the names that stand out like you get with the other AFC South teams above them. Shane Steichen should have asked Dolly Parton to record “9 to 8” for him as that seems to be the only win totals he knows, and I’m not going to pivot from that in 2026.
4. Tennessee Titans (6-11)
I like the idea of Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll (OC) getting another chance elsewhere in the NFL. I like giving Cam Ward a WR1 in Carnell Tate in the draft. I don’t necessarily like the money spent on random defenders, but hopefully Saleh will show his expertise there in getting better play.
Sure, a second-year quarterback with better coaching in a winnable division should be an easy pick for a breakout team. But I’m just not feeling this roster yet, and I think Ward might be the first Gen Z quarterback who could go down as a bust, but he’ll get on a podcast weekly and take accountability for it. “Yeah, I fucking sucked, no cap.” Just listen to some of his pressers from the last year if you don’t know what I’m talking about.
That’s cool when you’re a rookie, but let’s make sure we see some progress in Year 2 when you’re not playing a ridiculous schedule like he did last year. I’ll understand this one too if it hits as a winner, but I don’t trust it yet.
Most starts against 12-win teams in a QB's first 17 career starts
1. Cam Ward – 9 2. Cooper Rush – 7 3. Tony Banks/Kellen Clemens/Kevin Kolb/Akili Smith – 6
Everyone wins 3-to-14 games in my vision of the 2026 season. The playoffs came down to tiebreakers in both conferences.
AFC
1. Buffalo (13-4)
2. Baltimore (13-4)
3. LA Chargers (11-6)
4. Houston (10-7)
5. Cincinnati (11-6)
6. Kansas City (10-7)
7. New England (10-7)
On the last day of the season, the Steelers can either be the No. 5 seed or miss the playoffs altogether. The Ravens, even without an incentive to let the starters finish the game with the No. 2 seed locked up, end up getting their revenge for 2025 and eliminate Aaron Rodgers in his final game.
In the AFC playoffs, the Ravens eliminate New England in the 7-2 matchup. Then the big one, Justin Herbert works out his playoff demons and shreds the Chiefs to win his first playoff game. The Bengals take care of Houston after another bad outing for Stroud.
Like in the 2022 season, the Bengals go into Buffalo and despite the Bills finally getting the No. 1 seed this year, they lose in the first playoff game in their new stadium as the Bengals force Allen into mistakes and Burrow outplays him.
No longer a Harbaugh Bowl, but Ravens-Chargers is a battle and the Chargers find a way on the road in that one too as Herbert is on his 2003 Peyton Manning type of run. But like Manning that year, it comes crashing down in flames in the AFC Championship Game as Herbert throws multiple picks to Burrow’s defense, and the Bengals advance to the Super Bowl.
With that said, I do love this script in the way it shows the Bills and Ravens can lead the conference now that they’ve moved on from their longtime coaches, though they still can’t get it done in January for the Super Bowl with rookie coaches. The Chargers finally win some playoff games with Herbert. The Patriots sneak in but lose immediately. The Chiefs are still there but have their worst playoff run of the Mahomes era with their weakest roster. The Bengals finally go on a run similar to 2021-22.
It feels right to me.
NFC
1. LA Rams (14-3)
2. Green Bay (11-6)
3. Philadelphia (10-7)
4. Tampa Bay (9-8)
5. Seattle (13-4)
6. Detroit (10-7)
7. Chicago (10-7)
We get another Round III between the Packers and Chicago, and this time, the Packers close and win. The Eagles frustrate Jared Goff once again and win that one in the snow. The Seahawks take care of business on a Monday night in Tampa Bay, the NFC South Invitational.
That sets up a third Rams-Seahawks game since Christmas. This time, the Rams force Darnold into a big turnover (or a Garrett sack) and win the game. The Packers defend home field against the Eagles for some 2024 revenge.
In the NFC Championship Game, Jordan Love plays well against that stacked defense, but Stafford and the Rams find a way to pull it out by a late FG to advance to the Super Bowl.
SUPER BOWL LXI
Yep, it’s a Super Bowl rematch form five years ago with the Rams hosting the Bengals at SoFi Stadium. Same result too. The Bengals are leading in the fourth quarter, Stafford works the ball down the field with Puka Nacua instead of Kupp this time, and they take a late lead that Burrow is unable to answer with Garrett and Donald both collapsing on him on pivotal plays to secure the victory.
The Rams end the drought for big preseason favorites after winning two games at SoFi by 3 points each to close the season. A familiar script for sure, but this is the decade of reboots and sequels, and this is a Los Angeles Super Bowl on Valentine’s Day.
What else would you expect? That is my vision for the 2026 season. Not a changing of the guard. Just a reshuffling to arrive at the same point as five years ago, then we can have a whole offseason to argue about the same things.
