Tag: 49ers

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 14

~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

Maybe it wasn’t supposed to be a hugely consequential day in the 2024 NFL season, but Week 14 felt like a big one with the Chiefs (12-1) getting some cushion in the AFC after the Bills were upset by the Rams in the shootout of the year that was still a wire-to-wire win for Sean McVay’s team. The Chiefs also came through with yet another close win to clinch the AFC West for the ninth year in a row.

The Steelers also took care of business against the Browns, so that Week 16 game in Baltimore can win them the AFC North regardless of what happens in Week 15. But we’ll worry about that game when it’s here.

We had eight games with a comeback opportunity, and so far, no team came back from a double-digit deficit to win this week. Could that mean more trouble for the Bengals against Cooper Rush in Dallas? We’ll see.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Rams: The Puka Nacua Show

If you’re a fan of the Rams, you have to be wondering where the hell was this offense for coach Sean McVay when they couldn’t even score a single touchdown at home against Miami on MNF in Week 10. That could still be the loss that keeps them out of the playoffs, but they turned heads with this strong offensive performance against Buffalo in a stunning 44-42 win.

Right from the opening drive, it was clear they came prepared for this one. But while the running game looked good early, it became much more dependent on Puka Nacua making incredible catches to extend drives for Matthew Stafford.

As for the Bills, it was wild to see how this usually dominant team could not stay ahead of the Rams. They had nine possessions in the game and here’s what happened with the scoring margin at the beginning of each:

  • Down 7-0, 1-yard Josh Allen touchdown run
  • Down 10-7, blocked punt returned for touchdown (17-7) after three straight Josh Allen incompletions
  • Down 17-7, 41-yard touchdown on a screen pass
  • Down 24-14, punt before halftime
  • Down 24-14, 3-and-out to start third quarter
  • Down 31-14, 51-yard touchdown pass to Khalil Shakir
  • Down 38-21, 1-yard Josh Allen touchdown run
  • Down 38-28, 21-yard touchdown to Mack Hollins
  • Down 44-35, 1-yard Josh Allen touchdown run

That means the Bills only had the ball one time the entire game where they trailed by fewer than 7 points, and that was the damaging 2nd drive when they punted quickly and it was blocked for a huge touchdown. They found themselves trying to chase that all day, and despite getting two huge touchdowns on YAC plays, they still couldn’t force the Rams into enough stops to get the ball back with a chance to ever tie or take the lead.

The Rams are usually not great in closing games out under McVay, especially in the 4-minute offense. But he had a plan for this one. Instead of kicking a long field goal to try to take a 6-point lead with several minutes left, he did the smart thing by going for it. The Rams got away with a false start, but Stafford was able to find Tutu Atwell for a huge 11-yard gain with the clock moving down near 3:00.

The old McVay kicks the field goal there and relies on his defense. He learned something here, or maybe Sunday was just a really great day for him, his offense, and Nacua. Fittingly, it was Nacua who capped off the drive with a 19-yard touchdown. But after the Rams missed the extra point with 1:54 left, there was a slight door open in a 44-35 game.

The Bills got down the field quickly thanks to some penalties, but it was  on 1st-and-goal at the 1 with 1:06 left where they made a serious error in strategy, the latest blunder in the Sean McDermott era. The Bills tried to run Allen on the sneak again, a play that he was 3-for-5 on in this game at the 1. But you can’t be doing that, not scoring, and burning a precious timeout at 1:02 to run it again.

In his career (regular season), Allen has 20 touchdown runs from the 1-yard line and 9 touchdown passes from the 1. It’s clear which strategy he feels more comfortable doing, and that number is only 16 touchdown passes if we extend to the 2-yard line as well. He wants the higher-percentage play in the run instead of trying to find a throwing lane that tight in or risk another sack.

But in this particular spot, you really don’t have the time to be running the ball because of that fear of getting stopped and wasting too much time. You have to avoid using any timeouts, because you want to avoid doing the onside kick or at least avoid having to recover one to have a realistic shot. By taking the timeout at 1:02, that meant it was going to come down to the onside kick recovery. Tom Brady, who sounded worse than usual as he was losing his voice, was all over this strategic failure, the latest blunder for the Bills in the McDermott era in a loss.

Allen eventually got his touchdown run, his third of the day to go along with three touchdown passes, a stat line that only Otto Graham put up in the 1954 NFL Championship Game. But that’s why I said on Twitter that they were trying to pad Allen’s stat line with the easy, high percentage score of a run so people can inflate the value of this 3+3=6 stat instead of sticking to a needed strategy of making a throw in this spot, which is usually going to be tougher than someone sneaking over the line for a yard. Again, Allen’s success rate from the 1 on that play here was only 3-for-5 on Sunday.

Sure enough, they made it come down to the onside kick, which they didn’t recover. The Rams ended up punting and the clock expired at the end of the punt. All those points and touchdowns for a wire-to-wire loss where the Bills never even had the ball in a one-score game after the blocked punt for a touchdown early in the second quarter.

I’ve been very critical of McVay in games like this in the past, but he was mostly on the money with his approach here. He outcoached McDermott and the Bills, and Nacua and Stafford were outstanding.

If this propels the Rams (7-6) to a division title run by running the table, then it takes on even more significance. But the Bills gave up a huge opportunity to the Chiefs with a game in Detroit to come next, and with the way that defense is banged up, it could be another 44-42 game.

Will the Bills fall short in that one too? They’re only 2-2 against current playoff teams this year. As for Allen’s MVP odds actually improving from -250 to -450 after a loss, there’s always later in the week for another article on that. I need sleep.

Chargers at Chiefs: Another AFC West Wrapped Up

Like Spotify, the Chiefs were mailing in their AFC West Wrapped for 2024. Another 19-17 victory against a division rival? Just type up the script and send it in. Maybe add a doink FG by the backup kicker to end this one with a little spice.

But it was business as usual for the 2024 Chiefs, which means a win, which means a weekly fraud alert by social media for the “worst 12-1 team ever.” But I would say it’s alarming that the games are playing out so similarly as the 2020 Steelers and 2023 Eagles started falling into familiar scripts before their collapses too. The Chiefs are in a much better spot than those teams and have the track record to believe in them, but you can’t keep blowing 13-point leads this quickly every week, you can’t keep giving up so many pressures and sacks on Patrick Mahomes, and you have to remember to run the ball.

A lot of these Kansas City issues were on display even with new left tackle D.J. Humphries, who left the game with a fourth quarter injury. Pretty bold move to go empty backfield with Wanya Morris back at left tackle, but they made it work out.

Mahomes didn’t play his best game, but he also threw his best pass of the night to DeAndre Hopkins on a 3rd-and-16 with the Chiefs trailing in the fourth quarter, and for the second week in a row, the veteran did not make the catch in a big moment. He had an excuse of the defender hitting him this time, but you still have to hang onto a pass that would have made it first-and-goal. The Chiefs settled for a 50-yard field goal from backup kicker Matthew Wright, and he was good.

But the Chargers held the ball for 8:29 before settling for their own field goal to regain a 17-16 lead with 4:35 left. Justin Herbert was missing his only reliable receiver in Ladd McConkey and his best running back in J.K. Dobbins. That certainly made the job easier for the Chiefs, but once again, they struggled to get any takeaways in a game that didn’t have any again on either side. The only turnover in Kansas City’s last three games was the fumbled snap by the Raiders on Black Friday.

This was also a low-possession game with 9 drives for each quarterback. But after Herbert took the lead, he never saw the field again on a night where he played decently with 213 yards. Even Quentin Johnston made a few nice catches and caught a touchdown.

But in leading his seventh game-winning drive of 2024, Mahomes again used his legs to deliver decisive plays like the 3rd-and-10 conversion to Xavier Worthy. At the 2-minute warning, the Chiefs faced a hug 3rd-and-7, because giving Herbert the ball back there may mean you never see it again in a loss. But Mahomes again scrambled, dodged a sack, and found a waiting Travis Kelce for the conversion.

From there, it was just a matter of setting up the field goal as the last snap. Wright came on and bounced the kick off the left upright before it deflected in okay for the game-winning kick. The Chiefs have won the AFC West nine years in a row, trailing only the record set by the 2009-19 Patriots (11).

The Chiefs are 12-1 and “Chiefs win by 1-13 points” is literally 12-1 as a bet this year. The only other team to win 12 games by 1-13 points in a season was the 2004 Steelers, another record the Chiefs could break with ease this year.

Maybe the Chiefs can throw in a twist next week in Cleveland and introduce some defensive takeaways to the mix courtesy of Jameis Winston.

Panthers at Eagles: Xavier Legette? More Like Leggette Your Ass a Bus Ticket Home After That Drop

If you’re a fan of the Carolina Panthers, this month should be the most optimistic you’ve felt about the team since 2018, if not longer ago. While they didn’t get the win in Philly as a 13.5-point underdog, this should be remembered as the day where Bryce Young was about to lead a 97-yard game-winning touchdown drive against a stingy defense, and Xavier Legette did this:

https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1865862520889618860

I thought he had it live. But after that huge drop, there was a delay of game penalty, and Young eventually threw incomplete on 4th-and-9 to end the game, a 22-16 punch to the gut after it looked like Young did everything right.

Jalen Hurts had a really rough passing day (108 passing yards and 4 sacks), but the running game produced 209 yards with 124 yards to Saquon Barkley. Go figure, I had 125 as my bet, and it probably happens if the Eagles didn’t have a penalty on 2nd down while they were hanging onto their one-score lead, causing them to throw more.

But the Eagles (-13.5) never led by more than 6 points, and even that only happened early in the fourth quarter after Hurts threw a short touchdown pass. Not the most impressive win for the Eagles by any means. They lost the pass-rush battle to Young and the Panthers.

Damn near lost the game too. Pittsburgh gets a shot next.

Falcons at Vikings: Sam Darnold’s Day to Shine

I rarely say this, but I felt kind of bad for Kirk Cousins in Minnesota this week. This was going to be his big revenge game, and while he struck early, it was Sam Darnold who shined with 347 yards and 5 touchdown passes.

After Cousins tied the game at 21 with a touchdown and 2-point conversion with 39 seconds left in the third quarter, by the next time he took the field, it was a 35-21 deficit and barely half a quarter remained. The special teams coughed up a fumble on the ensuing kickoff after Darnold’s go-ahead touchdown pass to Jordan Addison, who caught 3 on the day to go along with a pair for Justin Jefferson.

Then with the clock not in his favor, Cousins’ pass was intercepted by one hand by Byron Murphy with 6:26 left. The Vikings added yet another touchdown in the 42-21 rout that was tied at 21 to start the quarter.

The Falcons (6-7) have lost the division lead to the Buccaneers (7-6), so we’ll see where things go from here, but it’s not looking good for preseason favorite Atlanta.

Browns at Steelers: No Pickens, A Few Problems

I’d be lying if I said the Steelers didn’t have any issues without George Pickens, who was a surprise inactive on Sunday morning due to a hamstring injury suffered late in the week. But the Steelers’ issues early had more to do with the players they were targeting rather than the players they should get involved with Russell Wilson in Pickens’ absence.

Once they started throwing to them, we saw production with Mike Williams down the field and tight end Pat Freiermuth had a good game with 48 yards and a touchdown. But Wilson only threw for 158 yards this week.

This game was also decided by Chris Boswell being a much better kicker than Dustin Hopkins, who missed from 38 and 43 yards. It wasn’t even that cold here Sunday, so he had even less of an excuse for those misses. Throw in a big Jameis Winston pick on a double-clutched screen that led to a short-field touchdown to get the Steelers going, and it was a team loss by the Browns.

You can’t beat the sight of Kadarius Toney (the one and only) muffing a punt with 2:53 left in a 27-14 game. He’s always trying to destroy games for his teams. But the Steelers were able to get to 10-3 and avoid their first sweep at the hands of Cleveland since 1988.

Seahawks at Cardinals: I Guess Geno Owns Arizona?

I know I’m not the only one struggling with these NFC West teams this year. The Seahawks took the first game 16-6, so I figured the Cardinals would play better offense at home and steal this one for the split.

Welp, I didn’t realize the Seahawks are now on a 7-game winning streak against the Cardinals with Geno Smith 6-0 as a starter in those games. Arizona has struggled to score in these games, and that was the problem again after an opening-drive touchdown was followed by a pair of Kyler Murray interceptions.

Meanwhile, it was a clean game for Geno without any sacks or turnovers. Zach Charbonnet was sharp with 134 yards and 2 touchdowns in a starring role without Kenneth Walker available.

But the Year of the Kicker falling apart around the league did Arizona in too here. Down 27-18, they rightly settled for a 40-yard field goal with half a quarter left. But it was off the goal post from kicker Chad Ryland, a big miss. He was the bust the Patriots drafted in 2023 and they got rid of after one season. He was doing better for Arizona this season, but that one stings.

The Seahawks burned valuable time and added a field goal to get to the weird 30-18 final score. The game ended with Murray taking a sack deep in the red zone and the Cardinals long out of timeouts since they used them so early in the quarter in an arguably reckless way.

But it’s looking more likely by the week that the Seahawks (8-5) are going to emerge from this division as the winner. But they do play the Packers and Vikings next, so it’s far from over.

Jets at Dolphins: A 14th Straight Postseason Without the Jets

Aaron Rodgers (339 yards) finally had his first 300-yard passing game since 2021, and it still wasn’t enough to avoid a fifth blown lead in the fourth quarter this season for the Jets. This time they are officially eliminated from the playoffs with a 3-10 record.

They were up 23-15 in the final quarter, but Tua Tagovailoa had the hot hand again against this defense, and he found Tyreek Hill on a fourth-and-4. Even after the Jets took a late 26-23 lead, they went backwards on consecutive plays on that drive to make sure the Dolphins would have time left to answer, and instead of getting a touchback, Miami’s long kick return out to the 46 made it a lot easier to get the game-tying field goal for overtime from 52 yards out.

The Dolphins won the coin toss and went on offense. Even though tight end Jonnu Smith has been a revelation in this offense in the last month, he didn’t have a catch until overtime. They found him on back-to-back plays (the same play, in fact) for 20 and 14 yards, then he also finished the drive with a 10-yard touchdown to win the game 32-26.

We’re starting to see a lot more 300-yard passing duels in recent weeks, but Tagovailoa took the best Rodgers could do and one-upped him at the end for the win. Miami (6-7) is not dead yet but must keep on winning every week to have a shot at the last wild card.

Bears at 49ers: Well, It Wasn’t ALL Matt Eberflus

Normally, I’d expect a little bump in performance in the first game after a team fires its terrible coach, but I also expected a bounce-back performance from the 49ers (-3.5) in this game against Chicago. I had no idea it’d be 24-0 with the 49ers outgaining the Bears 319-4 in yards in the first half. That’s not a typo.

It got a little closer in the second half, but not even Kyle Shanahan’s mastery of blowing leads could make this one interesting. Caleb Williams fumbled on a Tuck Rule play, except the Tuck Rule is long gone. The 49ers held on to win 38-13, and we’ll see if it’s too little too late to save their season at 6-7.

Saints at Giants: No Field Goal Is Safe Anymore

We can talk about Drew Lock starting 0-for-8 or Derek Carr throwing the first interception by the Giants since Sam Darnold in Week 1, but do you really care at this point?

What’s interesting here is that the Saints blocked a 35-yard-field goal in the final seconds when it looked like the Giants were going to force overtime in a 14-11 game. It was very similar to the endings with blocked field goals in Chiefs-Broncos and Packers-Bears this season. That’s three times for something we rarely ever see.

I think that adds some great, legitimate intrigue to these moments. If you look at the way they blocked the kick, you wonder why we don’t see this a little more often. It feels more doable than recovering an onside kick these days.

Raiders at Buccaneers: Your Average Baker Rollercoaster

There’s some Jameis to this Baker Mayfield season in Tampa Bay. After two early touchdowns to build a 14-0 lead, this one lingered into the fourth quarter after Mayfield turned it over three times in the second quarter.

But the Raiders lost another quarterback to injury with Aidan O’Connell getting an air cast on his leg, and I can only hope it had to do with a previous injury getting worse, because the hit I’m seeing that “caused it” makes it look like contact sports won’t be for him.

Desmond Ridder replaced him for the fourth quarter of a 14-10 game, but he went three-and-out before the Buccaneers put it away with back-to-back touchdown drives in a 28-13 final that was misleadingly lopsided? Or maybe it was fittingly accurate. I don’t know anymore with teams like this. I just know the Raiders almost never win these games anymore.

Jaguars at Titans: No Longer a TNF Special in December for People to Ignore

Remember when they’d throw this game on a Thursday night in December when people probably wanted to go Christmas shopping or something? Well, let’s be glad they have some higher standards these days for Amazon Prime paying out the ass for these games. No one wants to watch a 10-6 shitfest between Mac Jones and Will Levis.

But I really thought this was the one game all season where you could trust Will Levis, who wasn’t horrible the last month, to put up some points and stats at home in an “easy win” against Mac Jones. And yet, it was a 10-6 comeback win as Jones improved his 4QC/GWD record to 3-14 in his career.

Levis had his chances to answer, but some laxed route running by Calvin Ridley and no special catch by Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (no longer under the radar) in the red zone led to a turnover on downs. The offense never got the ball in the end zone and now both teams are 3-10. Terrible stuff and probably one of the lowest-rated Titans-Jags games of all time.

Next week: The big one (Bills-Lions) loses some luster with the Buffalo loss. But that helps bolster Rams-49ers a bit on TNF to start the week and you might as well call that a playoff game since the loser should be done. We’ll see if the Chiefs can actually get some turnovers from Jameis Winston in Cleveland. Is Steelers-Eagles really going to be on the same time as Bills-Lions? Would prefer to see those at different times. Packers-Seahawks is solid for SNF. A weak MNF double-header (Bears-Vikings and Falcons-Raiders) to end it. Desmond Ridder Revenge Game? Ugh.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 13

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Week 13 started with a lot of close NFL finishes on the holidays, but it carried over to Sunday too. A whopping 12 of the 15 games this week have been decided by 1-to-7 points with MNF pending. A few were artificially close, but there were 9 games with a comeback opportunity and we saw six game-winning drives this week.

This has felt like the week where people started picturing a Championship Sunday with Eagles-Lions and Bills-Chiefs. Maybe it ends up that way, but the one thing I’m sure of is we’ll get a new NFC champion as the 49ers are more cooked than your turkey was.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Eagles at Ravens: Best Philadelphia Win in Two Years

I have to give the Eagles (10-2) credit for what I’d call their best win in the last two seasons. They may be playing defense better than anybody since Week 6, they got this one done in Baltimore against a quarterback who was 23-1 against the NFC, and they didn’t have Darius Slay, DeVonta Smith, and they lost some defensive backs during the game too and still were up 24-12 late.

Oh, they also spotted the Ravens a 9-0 lead, which usually leads to an avalanche. But the Eagles shook off the bad start and hung in there.

However, I don’t want to give the offense too much credit since it managed just 252 yards, 4-of-12 on third down, and they didn’t even have any takeaways or long returns to produce some hidden yards in those numbers. It was a bit bland on that side of the ball, but Saquon Barkley was dominant down the stretch, and if any award was decided in this game, I’d say Barkley is inching closer to lock territory for Offensive Player of the Year. Derrick Henry may have blown his shot with no touchdowns in consecutive games and Barkley getting the push in this head-to-head matchup that wasn’t a grand offensive display by any means.

But let’s also just be honest. The Eagles sat back and watched the Ravens do what they do best this year: Beat themselves. They kept the penalties to a minimum this time, but the deterioration of Justin Tucker is getting so bad that you honestly have to consider if it’s time to say goodbye. He’s missed a career-high 10 kicks this season (with 5 games to go) and that includes 3 more in this game. They weren’t Herculean tasks either from 47 and 53 yards, and he started downhill by missing an extra point in the first quarter.

Somehow, this game had 5 fumbles and all were recovered by the team who fumbled, so no turnovers. Lamar Jackson played like someone dying to turn it over with a fumble on an unforced error that killed a drive, then he could have easily been picked on a fourth-down throw in the fourth quarter that fell incomplete (probably better for Philly’s field position). But he wasn’t impressive like he was a year ago against a Vic Fangio defense from Miami.

But Jackson’s success rate in the fourth quarter was 1-for-7 on drives where it was a 14-12 and 21-12 game, so that’s not going to help his MVP case for the team’s fifth loss this year. He also took a huge sack on the play before Tucker missed his 47-yard field goal, and had three straight failed dropbacks before the next missed field goal in the third quarter.

But if you wanted to show one play that sums up this game, just look at the way rookie corner Cooper DeJean tackled Derrick Henry for a 3-yard gain on a 3rd-and-11 in a 21-12 game:

https://twitter.com/_MLFootball/status/1863374958258270292/history

Henry’s OPOY case may have died on that snap. The Ravens got the ball back with 63 seconds left in a 24-12 game and were able to get a touchdown with just 3 seconds left. It had a bit of a garbage time feel to it, especially with Jackson running for 39 yards against a defense that thought maybe a flag was thrown. But that put 19 points on the board. Just keeping it at 12 would have given them a better shot of not setting their season low in the playoffs for the fifth-straight time under Jackson.

But the fact is the Ravens are now 8-5 and facing a stronger likelihood of taking the wild card route in January. They could also end up inevitably facing Pittsburgh in the wild card, and at this point, I’m not sure if it matters all that much if the game is played in Pittsburgh or Baltimore. It’s still going to be Ravens-Steelers, and lately, that’s not good for Baltimore winning.

But it’s a very good win for the Eagles as the defense should feel some real confidence if it has to play a team like Detroit or Buffalo in a big playoff game this year.

It was still a “yikes” day from Tucker though…

Steelers at Bengals: Shootout of the Year (with a Predictable Winner)

The Bengals insisted all September that they were still the team to beat in the AFC, and yet here we are with the team at 4-8, likely not going to the playoffs for the second year in a row, and it’s another loss to Pittsburgh that could effectively be the final nail. Doing it in Cincinnati is just the cherry on top as the Steelers travel there so well like they did in the playoffs in 2005 and 2015 when they ended those dream seasons for the Bengals.

But they’ve done it to the Bengals in the regular season for a couple of decades too. I said the offense has always perked up against Lou Anarumo’s defense even in the Matt Canada era, and they were really special on Sunday with the first game for Arthur Smith and Russell Wilson.

It got off to a terrible start with George Pickens getting dragged down by the helmet, and it leading to a pick-six for the Bengals. It wasn’t DPI since the ball wasn’t in the air yet. It wasn’t illegal contact since it was within 5 yards. I guess they could have called illegal hands to the face, but I still put that more on Pickens for being soft on the play, and then he of course didn’t even try to make a tackle, choosing to complain to the ref for a flag.

But I didn’t imagine Russell Wilson would have the best game by a Pittsburgh quarterback since vintage Ben Roethlisberger after that start. It’s the most encouraged I’ve felt about a Pittsburgh offensive game in years, because they showed things that were different this week. They saw the complaints and flaws in Cleveland that the offense relies on too many deep shots, Wilson is getting too much heat, and they need to find a more consistent offense that can hit layups too.

Well, they did that Sunday. They attacked the Bengals repeatedly over the middle on short, quick throws to the running backs. Najee Harris got so many catches on one drive that he had to get oxygen in the first quarter. Better get used to it, because the Steelers may actually be using the middle of the field a little more going forward. But they definitely liked what they saw on tape against the Bengals, and Wilson was very accurate and decisive with the ball. He only took 2 sacks, and he finished 29-of-38 for 414 yards and 3 touchdowns, his second-highest passing yardage total in his career.

Wilson got to over 250 yards by halftime when Joe Burrow had just 100 yards. That doesn’t mean the defense was playing great, because they gave up way too many penalties on Joey Porter Jr., and they relied on a couple of splash plays to get 3 takeaways from Burrow, including two strip-sacks. The big one came in the fourth quarter when it was returned for a touchdown to take a 41-24 lead with 11:06 left.

But the Steelers played abysmal defense the rest of the way, and again, Porter Jr. was a main culprit as he is too grabby with receivers and got flagged for DPI in the end zone. On the last drive, he dropped a pick in the end zone that would have sealed the win, but Burrow instead got another touchdown pass. Keep in mind, that drive happened so fast because of a 49-yard pass to a wide-open Ja’Marr Chase with a blocker in front of him.

It really looked like the Steelers might blow a 17-point lead to one of the worst comeback teams in the league. Even the offense was blowing the situation as a holding penalty on a 2nd-down run stopped the clock with 1:54 left. That means if the Bengals could stop a 3rd-and-4, Burrow would get over a minute to score a touchdown unless Chris Boswell could nail a very long field goal (58 yards or so).

The Steelers put Justin Fields into the game for the first time, and you had to expect a run from him. Everyone should have saw that coming, and yet, he did exactly that and it still converted for a 7-yard gain. He even did the slide properly this time instead of coming up short to extend the game. But that’s a wrap in a 44-38 game, the highest-scoring game this season, no one expected.

At the same time, I feel much better about Pittsburgh’s chances to keep up in January if they have to outscore the likes of the Bills or Chiefs. But I also feel even worse that the defense is going to get destroyed like it has in every single playoff game since the 2017 season. Even with some of their best front seven players creating 4 sacks and 2 fumbles, this defense still allowed 31 points. That’s poor.

But after the first loss with Wilson to Cleveland last week, I can’t imagine anyone will still question the move from Fields to him after this game. Wilson was in vintage form in this one.

49ers at Bills: San Francisco Melts in the Snow

This is exactly why you shouldn’t trust a warm-weather team playing in the snowy elements of Buffalo in a game like this. Yes, the 49ers didn’t have Trent Williams and Nick Bosa, but Brock Purdy returned, and there are still a lot of really talented players on both sides of the ball with a coach who is supposed to be a genius.

Yet the 49ers turned in a lifeless, mistake-heavy performance in another 35-10 rout that has dropped them to 5-7, and they may not recover from this one. They also lost Christian McCaffrey again, and with the way he pulled up on his own, we may not see him again until 2025.

But even without Williams, there were running lanes to be found as both defenses struggled to get traction on the field that was quickly covered with snow that started just before kickoff. That also slows down the pass rush, so even Bosa might not have been that huge in a game like this against a quarterback as hard to sack like Allen.

But the fact is Allen took a backseat on this night where he only had to throw 17 passes. The running backs picked up just a hair under 200 yards as James Cook even broke a 65-yard touchdown on a 1-play drive. The Bills opened this game up in the third quarter when the 49ers blew their shot to make this competitive at 21-3 when Kyle Juszczyk fumbled at the goal line as the team struggled with ball security all night and just looked generally unprepared.

Meanwhile, the Bills have a player like Mack Hollins walking to the stadium barefoot, and he caught a touchdown in this game. But the final nail in the coffin was when Allen threw an off-target pass to Amari Cooper, who fought with the defense before pitching a lateral to Allen, who dove for the score, essentially completing a touchdown pass to himself (but no reception credit). That made it 28-3 and that was a wrap as Purdy couldn’t even throw for 100 yards to his more talented receivers. Purdy even fumbled on an unforced error to set up a short field for Buffalo’s last touchdown.

It looks like the 49ers are going out sad, and while Kyle Shanahan may deserve an injury excuse for missing the playoffs this year, you can’t tell me 38-10 and 35-10 in consecutive weeks with these types of performances is not worth criticizing given the star power still on the field.

Texans at Jaguars: Houston’s Not Beating the Allegations

Why is it even when the Texans win there still feels like a loser quality to it? This game was marred by the cheap hit by Azeez Al-Shaair that gave Trevor Lawrence a concussion, which led to him posturing on the field in a scary scene.

I say suspend his ass, because that looked very intentional, and apparently he’s got a history of being a dirty player.

But guess what? Even though the Texans were up 23-6 with 12:00 left and Mac Jones, one of the worst comeback quarterbacks in NFL history, was in the game, the Jaguars still made Houston sweat for the win. Jones led back-to-back touchdown drives to make it 23-20 with 3:31 left, a bad trend that’s happened multiple times to the Texans this year.

Fortunately, they kept the ball on the ground with Joe Mixon, who was able to hit the big runs to get the last few first downs to put the game away. But I want to see what the league does to Al-Shaair. All these little penalties and fines that are supposed to protect the quarterbacks but don’t actually stop the hits from still happening. Let’s see some real punishment like docking him his last 5 game checks this year.

Chargers at Falcons: Kirk Cousins Is a Tampa Bay Defense Merchant This Year

Man, Kirk Cousins played the Tampa Bay defense twice this year as if his family’s lives depended on him being great. He threw 8 touchdowns to one pick in those games, he had the 500-yard game, and his 276 yards in the rematch was also his third-highest yardage game with the Falcons.

I don’t want to act like those are his only big games this year as he shredded the weak Cowboys’ defense, and he had that good comeback moment in Philadelphia. But the Tampa Bay games are definitely building up his season stats, especially after he threw 4 picks in a rough 17-13 loss at home to the Chargers here.

Cousins was picked on 3-of-4 drives to end this game, which was always within reach. One of Cousins’ picks was returned for a touchdown in the third quarter, which is how the Chargers took the lead for good.

I thought Justin Herbert would have a big passing game with J.K. Dobbins out, but he threw for just 147 yards on 23 attempts, and Ladd McConkey had 117 of those yards in a huge game for the rookie. But it’s not like the running game stepped up for Herbert. It produced 12 carries for 55 yards for him.

The defense led the way here as the offense only had 187 yards. Meanwhile, the Falcons had 350 yards, but they were 3/14 on third down and the four picks. Definitely a winnable game that was thrown away by the Falcons.

Cardinals at Vikings: The 10-Win Team No One Is Talking About

The Vikings are now 10-2, winners of five straight, and it feels like no one talks about them because of the allure of the Lions and Packers in the same division. But they’ll get a rematch with those teams at the end of the season, they already won in Green Bay, and this division is far from decided.

Minnesota broke expectations again by being able to overcome a 19-6 deficit in the second half behind quarterback Sam Darnold, who continues to play well. He was sacked 5 times in this game, matched his leading rushers with 22 yards on the ground, but still drove 70 yards twice for critical touchdowns in a 23-22 comeback win.

Aaron Jones made up for another fumble by catching an open touchdown for the lead with 1:13 left. The Cardinals weren’t able to get a first down as it was not a great game for Kyler Murray, who was picked twice in the quarter, including a desperation play on 4th-and-10 to end it at 23-22. They only needed a field goal, but now Arizona (6-6) is second in the NFC West.

The Vikings could have what it takes to shake up what people are starting to bill as an inevitable championship game between the Lions and Eagles.

Seahawks at Jets: 41 and Done

Aaron Rodgers turns 41 today (Monday), and he looked every bit that age and more in Sunday’s latest loss to the Seahawks. Apparently, the Jets are the first team to be favored in 9-of-12 games and have a record as bad as 3-9 SU. They found a way to blow their fourth lead in the fourth quarter this season, but this game had a few critical turning points that largely went against the Jets.

Up 21-7 in the second quarter after a kickoff return for a touchdown, the Jets had a chance to really put the dagger through the Seahawks, who fumbled on the ensuing kickoff. But after Rodgers missed Garrett Wilson on a pass, the refs missed a delay of game, and Rodgers’ pass was intercepted by Leonard Williams, who rumbled his way for a 92-yard touchdown, reportedly the longest ever for a 300-pound player. That made it 21-13 in a situation where it looked like the Jets would go up 28-7.

The Jets never scored again. Breece Hall wasted a goal-line stand by fumbling, which led to a Seattle field goal to make it 21-19 in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks were later stuffed on a 4th-and-1 run that was negated by a horse collar penalty. They finished that drive with the go-ahead touchdown instead with 5:31 left, giving Rodgers plenty of time to get a touchdown in a 26-21 deficit.

But the drive was painfully slow, and things quickly went haywire after the 2-minute warning. Rodgers took a sack and faced a 4th-and-15. Naturally, his pass fell harmlessly incomplete to end the game. Rodgers finished 21-of-39 for 185 yards, which will drop his career-low YPA (6.4) this season even lower.

Big win for the Seahawks, who are 7-5 and in first place in the NFC West.

Colts at Patriots: Marathon Drive Produces Rare Win in New England

The Colts had not won in New England since 2006, a memory of better and far more relevant times for this team. For both teams, obviously. But the Colts had lost their last 7 trips to Gillette Stadium, so it is a welcome sign that Shane Steichen is now 2-0 against the Patriots after also beating them in Germany in 2023.

This game had more scoring, though it sure didn’t look like Anthony Richardson was going to surpass 100 passing yards for the longest time, and those fears about him only doing well on scripted drives came up again as he was having a mess of a game on drives that didn’t begin each half.

It looked like things were going New England’s way again once Drake Maye led a go-ahead drive for a touchdown to take a 24-17 lead, then corner Christian Gonzalez picked off Richardson with 7:59 left. That was lights out in the old days for the Patriots, but not anymore.

The Colts forced a three-and-out, and Richardson took over with 5:34 left and 80 yards to go. Old-school football. But it was mostly passing from Richardson until the Colts moved their 19-play march into the red zone, then he started getting more designed runs. After calling five straight runs, the Colts put the ballgame on 4th-and-3 on Richardson to make a throw on time, and he delivered with the touchdown to Alec Pierce with 12 seconds left.

That’s a solid situation to go for two, which the Colts also converted with Richardson powering his way in for the 25-24 lead. But we also have to reconsider this strategy with the way teams are setting up field goals anymore. Getting to start at the 30 is a huge bonus, and the Patriots still had timeouts. Even with a rookie quarterback and some low-level weapons, the Patriots managed to run 3 snaps in 11 seconds (hometown clock operator?) to move the ball 20 yards to midfield and at least give kicker Joey Slye a shot at a 68-yard field goal, which would be the longest in NFL history.

This is the same kicker who shanked a 67-yard field goal against the Chiefs in 2020 when he was with Carolina. He’s also a kicker who blew a 25-yard field goal earlier in this game, but from 68, he was straight down the middle. It just came up a yard or two short.

That would have been an amazing kick, and it does make you want to think twice about 12 seconds being long enough to avoid a finish like this when you go for two. But I guess if you don’t think you can win in overtime, this is what you do.

I’m still not convinced Richardson is the real deal for the Colts, who are hanging in the playoff hunt at 6-7, but at least this drive and the one against the Jets are encouraging.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Bryce Young Did His Job Again

One of the more encouraging stories in the last month has been Bryce Young playing like an actual NFL quarterback. Has it been great? Not quite, but getting production out of him, getting him to score 20 points in four straight games, and seeing him deliver a few clutch drives is absolutely huge given he’s spent most of his career as someone who might not sniff 20 points in 3 weeks combined.

Frankly, he should have had this game won against Tampa Bay as a 5.5-point underdog, but they gave it away again. Young stepped up with a great 25-yard touchdown throw to Adam Thielen with 30 seconds left to take a 23-20 lead. But in today’s NFL with the kickoff putting teams at the 30 and so many kickers capable of hitting from long distance, it’s really hard to defend that kind of lead. It’s not like the old days.

Sure enough, Baker Mayfield shrugged off a pretty poor game where he was hit hard multiple times, and he got his offense into field goal range with three productive completions and a scramble. See kids, you can fire off five scrimmage plays (plus the field goal) in 30 seconds if you have three timeouts.

Chase McLaughlin was good from 51 yards out to send the game to overtime. But he wasn’t good from 55 yards on the first drive of overtime, and I have to question the decision to kick that long attempt. First, it doesn’t win the game. It only gives you a lead and puts the opponent in that rare air of four-down football without a real time constraint.

Then it’s not like McLaughlin is a stud kicker. If he misses, you’re giving Carolina the ball at their 45, and a field goal wins the game for them. It’s 4th-and-7 at the Carolina 37, so you probably don’t want to go for it that far. I might just punt or try the hard count and punt there. Make Young drive a long field while being constrained to 3-down football.

The Bucs’ defense bailed out the rest of the team, because the Panthers looked like they were going to get a game-winning field goal after another brilliant catch from Theilen to the 34. But on the very next play, Chuba Hubbard was stripped on a great forced fumble by Nelson.

Bucky Irving had the huge day, but it was Rachaad White who put it away with a 38-yard run. McLaughlin was good from 30 yards away and the Bucs escaped with the 26-23 win to stay tied in the NFC South with Atlanta at 6-6 (tie-breaker still favors Atlanta).

A very close call that would have me worried the Bucs aren’t going to be good enough to run through this softer spot of the schedule after all to win the division. But it might not matter if the Falcons are going to keep playing the way they have against non-Tampa opponents.

Rams at Saints: The Drought Continues

One record streak ended and another streak continued in the Rams’ 21-14 road win over the Saints. First, I had no idea the Rams had an NFL-record 129 game streak of scoring in the first half. That ended with this one as they trailed 6-0 at the half, so that record is now within the sights of the Ravens, who are up to 124 games.

If you include playoff games, the Ravens just broke the record with a 102-game streak, surpassing the Rams (101 games). To the surprise of no one reading this, the Rams were shut out in the first half of Super Bowl 53 against the Patriots, so this technically wasn’t the first time a Sean McVay team did this. Just never in the regular season before Sunday.

At least they made up for it this time with three touchdown drives in the second half. But that left the door open for Derek Carr to finally lead the first fourth-quarter comeback win of his Saints’ career. He threw a perfect pass for a 28-yard touchdown to MVS, the savior of this receiving corps right now, and Dante Pettis (he’s still around?) caught the game-tying 2-point conversion to tie the game at 14.

But Stafford got on a hot streak and threw a touchdown to Puka Nacua to regain a 21-14 lead with 8:54 left. The Saints were putting together a drive that got very run heavy, and after losing Taysom Hill to an injury, they went to Alvin Kamara on three straight runs that brought up a 4th-and-3 at the LA 9 with just over a minute left as this drive was fixing to take up almost the last 9 minutes.

You can already sense the doom to come, and sure enough, Carr held the ball long enough for Jared Verse to get to him and force a game-sealing incompletion (nearly a strip-sack). I’m not sure anyone was open but Carr’s limited mobility hurts there as he had no chance to escape from Verse, who should be the DROY front-runner.

Guess the Saints will just have to wait another week to pull off a 4QC win.

Titans at Commanders: Early Knockout

Go figure. The Commanders struggled for the last three games on offense, and the Titans came into this game with the No. 1 defense in yards per drive allowed. Before you could blink it was 28-0 with the Commanders scoring four straight touchdowns to start the game. A couple were set up on short fields after the Titans fumbled twice, a problem for them this year.

But this was a nice bounce-back game for Jayden Daniels, who had 4 total touchdowns and worked on the short passing game to protect those ribs in a 42-19 win. The bye week comes at a great time to get healthy for the stretch run into the playoffs for this team. It’s still possible they could have that first 11-win season in the salary cap era.

Next week: It’s the last of the byes, so with six teams off, we’re peaking early with Packers-Lions on TNF. Should be a good one. I’ll be watching to see if the Steelers take the Browns more seriously this time in a game they really need to win if they want this division title with much tougher games to follow. Seattle-Arizona rematch is also in close timing with the first game, and that could go a long way in determining the NFC West winner. Chargers-Chiefs on SNF is bound to be interesting for obvious reasons. Monday night is just seeing if Cooper Rush can improve to 2-0 against Joe Burrow for two of the most disappointing teams in the league this year.  

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 12

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We knew Week 12 didn’t look good on paper. But sometimes those games produce some of the best endings, and that happened in the NFL’s early Sunday afternoon slate with arguably the best witching hour of the season. The Bears, Commanders, and Panthers were all in the process of pulling off insane comebacks to tie the Vikings, Cowboys, and Chiefs, and somehow, they all still lost.

In fact, Sunday’s only fourth-quarter lead change was in the wild Texans-Titans game with the mayo-loving Will Levis, and that’s not a reference to his ejaculation video.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1860940283791217014

We had our first double-digit favorite lose a game outright in 2024 with Washington (-10.5) falling in epic fashion to the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys. With Washington and Houston (-7.5) both losing Sunday, that makes 19 games this season where a team favored by at least 6 points lost. There were 23 games all last season, playoffs included, with 10 such upsets coming after Thanksgiving, so we should see that number exceeded this year. This ties 2020 (19) and is already more than 2022 (16), but it happened 31 times in 2021, so maybe it won’t be a record-setting season for upsets in that regard.

Still got the big one to come Monday night (Chargers-Ravens), and given we’re about to go two weeks without a team winning after trailing by double digits, that’d be a perfect game to end the drought. The question is which team do you trust more to blow the lead? The Chargers have history, but maybe things are different under this Harbaugh, and the Ravens have blown plenty of multi-score leads since 2022.

Looking forward to it, but so far, only 6-of-12 games have had a comeback opportunity this week.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Panthers: What Kind of Kansas City Team Are You?

Every Kansas City season in the Patrick Mahomes era has been a unique team that brought a different approach from the previous year. The offense was never more explosive than in 2018, and the defense was never stingier than it was in 2023. But the hope that the 2024 team would be the first truly balanced, elite Chiefs team on both sides of the ball looks to be a pipe dream at this point.

The offense keeps trending up, and the defense has just played its two worst games of the last two seasons in the last two weeks in Buffalo and Carolina. But it’s one thing to struggle with Josh Allen in your eighth matchup with him since 2020. Having to scrape out a 30-27 win against Bryce Young in another low-possession game where each team had eight drives is just painful and worrisome.

The good news is the Chiefs are 10-1 and have the best finisher in the league in Mahomes, who had no problem leading his fifth game-winning drive of 2024 (career high) with his legs again providing the pivotal play with a 33-yard scramble. He finished with 269 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 60 rushing yards as the offense looked as good as it has all year against a truly bad opponent.

The bad news is the Chiefs look like a team that is becoming fully dependent on its quarterback and skill players to lead the way to victory, and that style doesn’t win championships in the NFL.

You can’t trust the offensive line anymore. Never mind their gross share of the 10 penalties for 91 yards the Chiefs had, they also let one of the worst pass rushes in the league sack Mahomes 5 times, something he’s only had happen one other time in his career. His passing was sharp from start to finish, but those sacks prevented the Chiefs from ever leading by more than 14 points.

Then there’s the defense, which made Bryce Young look like a blossoming star with big throws down the field as he threw for 263 yards in the best game of his career. They only sacked him twice, and he was able to deliver a game-tying touchdown drive with 1:46 left. I think you have to be optimistic about Young for maybe the first time ever if you’re Carolina after this game.

Having said that, I do think the penalty on the Chiefs for the hard hit on the 2-point conversion was a bullshit call. He hit him too hard to knock the ball out. Why should that be a penalty? He didn’t lead with the head on it. Terrible call, which allowed the Panthers to run it in from the 1-yard line with Chuba Hubbard to tie the game at 27.

But that’s another game where the defense flat out choked with a chance to end the game or at least get the offense the ball back. It happened in Buffalo last week on the 4th-and-2 touchdown run, it happened in the last 6:00 against Denver where the 35-yard field goal would have lost the game for Kansas City, and it happened against Tampa Bay when they let Baker Mayfield tie the game late instead of shutting the door.

That’s a month of this defense not closing in crunch time, and now they’re allowing a lot of points and yards too. It’s not a good sign going forward. We can talk about injuries, but it’s not like the offense hasn’t had its share of those this season. They’re still improving with Noah Gray having another 2-touchdown game after having one in Buffalo too. Even Xavier Worthy didn’t do anything screwy this week as the Chiefs also had no turnovers in this game.

I think you can see after the 31-yard game-winning field goal by the new kicker that the Chiefs weren’t that thrilled about winning this game this way. Maybe that will become the identity of the 2024 Chiefs. Whether they’re playing the Bills or Panthers, you can count on the margin for error to be tiny, and they’re playing with fire on a weekly basis.

They may need to get burned a few more times before January to get it out of their system. But it looks like we can put the “elite defense” to rest in Kansas City. They had a good run since 2023, but it ended this month.

Cowboys at Commanders: Under Bettors in Absolute Shambles

What the hell was that? Cowboys-Commanders is the first game in NFL history where neither team scored more than 3 points by halftime and still ended with 60 combined points. The previous record was a 1979 game (Saints at Buccaneers) where a scoreless first half led to a 42-14 win for the Saints.

Needless scoring is a good way to describe a lot of this game, which was a defensive slugfest/offensive shitfest for over three quarters. I guess we can’t take a Kliff Kingsbury-coached offense seriously once November strikes and the tape roll gets that long, because I thought for sure the Commanders would look fresh and rejuvenated after their layoff following the loss to the Eagles. Also, Cowboys’ defense is another reason.

But this was an ugly game as it took Jayden Daniels taking off for a 17-yard touchdown run to get a touchdown on the board in the third quarter. But the Commanders missed an extra point, and while that particular point didn’t come back to haunt them since they converted a 2-point try later, it should have been a sign of things to come, and arguably a decision maker for coach Dan Quinn and Kingsbury.

The defense didn’t do the best job of stopping Cooper Rush from using CeeDee Lamb on short throws and putting together scores to take a 13-9 lead with 8:11 left. After the Commanders fumbled a completion, it was 20-9 on a short field touchdown with 5:08 left. That finally motivated Daniels to play with a no-huddle tempo and desperation, and he threw a touchdown to Zach Ertz with a 2-point conversion to make it 20-17 with 3:02 left.

But that’s when the game really took a turn as Turpin nearly lost the ball on the kickoff before regathering himself for a 99-yard return touchdown. Down 27-17 with 2:49 left, it looked like Daniels would do something miraculous after his kicker came through with a 51-yard field goal, the defense forced a three-and-out thanks to a timely sack, and he got his chance in a 27-20 game 33 seconds left.

He was 86 yards away from the end zone, but this isn’t unlike his Hail Mary drive against Chicago. The difference is this time he threw a good pass to Terry McLaurin that should have been a gain out to midfield, but McLaurin had the angle, the speed, and he kept it going all the way to the end zone for the touchdown with 21 seconds left. What a miracle score.

But now you have to ask should they go for 2? The Cowboys have a kicker (Brandon Aubrey) with huge range and they had one timeout left, but 21 seconds is pretty solid time to defend any drive there. I think there’s an argument they should have just gone for it, but they took the extra point for granted with a shaky kicker, and sure as shit, he failed them by missing it wide left.

I guess we can scratch off Daniels from the future LOAT list too. But then a short reprieve when the Cowboys got silly on the onside kick and returned it for a 43-yard touchdown instead of going down to end the game.

Why do you go down? To avoid what happened as Daniels completed a 6-yard pass to Ertz, then set himself up for a 2nd Hail Mary attempt this season. But this one was farther away from the end zone with 58 yards from the line of scrimmage, and Daniels didn’t step into it with quite as much room and power as he had against the Bears. The pass was shorter this time and it was ultimately intercepted to finally end this silly game at 34-26.

Pretty excruciating way to lose a historic game, but the Commanders are going to have to start games better, and I’m not sure what the fix is with the running game. Brian Robinson Jr. left early with an injury and Daniels ended up leading the team with 74 rushing yards. They need to find him a bit more help there.

Titans at Texans: Houston Really Does Have a Problem

How flawed is Houston right now? I’m using a clean f-word too for that sentence. Will Anderson Jr. was back in action and helped a pass rush to 8 sacks of Will Levis, who also threw a pick-six to fall behind late in the third quarter. The Titans even muffed a punt in the fourth quarter to gift the Texans 3 more points, Nico Collins had 95 yards and a touchdown, and the Texans still lost this game 32-27 at home.

I wish I could say this division game made no god damn sense, but the fact is it did. Painfully (Houston was my preseason pick to challenge Kansas City’s three-peat), it made sense.

Houston is the first team to blow 4 fourth-quarter leads this season. They have created a very unique defense where the pass rush is great at turning pressures into sacks, and sometimes they force a lot of incompletions too. Though, I’m starting to think playing Anthony Richardson twice and one major off-day from Josh Allen (9-for-30) heavily contributed to those completion rate numbers.

But if your quarterback can survive the pass rush of Houston, that secondary can’t hold up against wide receivers to save their lives. That’s how Will Levis was able to complete 18-of-24 passes for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sure, he took 8 sacks and threw a pick-six to Jimmie Ward, but he still hung in there and made enough big plays, including a 70-yard touchdown pass that put the Titans ahead in the fourth quarter, 30-27.

Next, we have to believe that Tennessee may be a legitimately good defense that is hard to move the ball against as they were very stingy with yards this year. But their scoring numbers aren’t so hot because of the bad field position they’ve been done in by with turnovers (Levis!) and the special teams. That Detroit game especially killed their stats.

But in this game, they held Joe Mixon to 22 yards on 14 carries. Totally shut him down, and the Texans have been running it so well this year. That put more pressure on C.J. Stroud, and my preseason MVP pick has regressed in his sophomore season. He took 4 sacks, threw a couple of picks, and struggled with this defense.

However, he didn’t screw up on the crucial drive of a 30-27 game. In fact, Collins should have had another touchdown to take the lead, but much like Monday night against Dallas, it was called back for an illegal shift. Then a holding penalty killed the drive, but kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn should have been able to tie the game with a 28-yard field goal with 1:56 left, right?

Wrong. He was wide left, much like how he missed a 27-yard field goal against the Jets when the Texans trailed 14-10 on Halloween. It’s one thing for Fairbairn to miss a 58-yard field goal against Detroit, but this was a 27-yard field goal and it wasn’t blocked. Make the damn kick. I’m not going to act like Fairbairn has always been a choker, and he did make a 54-yard field goal in this quarter, but I do have articles dating back to his 2017 season where I said he was unproven and not reliable.

The only good news is the Titans had a bad drive after the missed kick, so Stroud got it back with 1:29 and one timeout left. The bad news is he was at his own 8, but it was still doable. However, he took a sack back to the 1-yard line, then it was a safety after Harold Landry sacked him in the end zone on 3rd-and-17 as he tried to make a play. That made it 32-27 and effectively game over after the onside free kick wasn’t recovered by Houston.

Just a brutal loss for Houston, which had a shot to start stacking wins. This is already the third time in Stroud’s career that his kicker missed a clutch field goal in a loss, and again, that’s not counting the 27-yard miss in the Jets game since they were down 14-10 at the time. Just not in his future to beat the LOAT, I guess.

But he needs to pick up his play. So does this defense under DeMeco Ryans, because they are frighteningly easy to hit big plays against. It’s been a problem all season.

One of many problems in Houston right now. They’re just lucky they play in the AFC South, but we’ve seen bigger collapses before from this division.

49ers at Packers: Brock Purdy Probably Worth a Few More Points Than Credited For

You can do a pretty good job finding the dud of the week in the NFC by finding which game Tom Brady is calling for FOX. The NFL clearly had high hopes for this one as the centerpiece of the late-afternoon slate, but the injuries for the 49ers are just not complying as they played this game without their top quarterback (Brock Purdy), edge rusher (Nick Bosa), and offensive lineman (Trent Williams). That’s to say nothing of not having their best wideout (Brandon Aiyuk) and defensive tackle (Javon Hargrave; out since Week 3) either.

It’s just looking like 2020 all over again for the 49ers where injuries destroy them. They had some chances to make this a game, and it certainly wasn’t all backup Brandon Allen’s fault, but it’s not like they lost 38-10 because of some huge quarterback disparity. Jordan Love only threw for 163 yards in this game. Yes, Christian Watson dropped a wide-open touchdown again, but even with that, the 49ers were missing tackles left and right on Josh Jacobs, who had 106 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground.

Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey is allergic to the end zone this year and he finished with just 31 yards on 11 carries. What ever happened to building the offense around the run and CMC? Oh, right. I guess they’ll blame that on not having Williams.

It was just a really poor performance on both sides of the ball for the 49ers, and if they can’t get those three key players back for Buffalo next week, don’t be surprised if the scoreboard looks like déjà vu on Sunday Night Football.

Cardinals at Seahawks: Mike Macdonald’s Defense Is Good Again?

I liked a low-scoring game, but Christ, 16-6? We’re back to late September when the Seahawks were 3-0, first place in the NFC West, and the question was is Mike Macdonald a legitimate Coach of the Year if he’s fixed this defense into playoff form, or has it just been the offensive schedule? Well, the losses started piling up against better opponents (Giants withstanding), and we were turned off by this defense, which suffered some injuries.

But after holding down the 49ers in San Francisco last week and owning the Cardinals, who had a bye, to just 6 points in this pivotal game, you have to say the defense is shaping into form again.

But the defining feature of these NFC West games have been blowing double-digit leads in the fourth quarter, and I swear it was going to happen again when Geno Smith threw an abysmal interception with a chance to add to his 13-3 lead to start the fourth. Keep in mind it was a third down too, so it’s not like he had to force it with a short field goal in his back pocket.

The Seahawks were only up 13-3 because of a horrific pick-six thrown by Kyler Murray on a fourth down in the third quarter. Again, just a lot of bad picks in the late-afternoon slate Sunday.

In a 13-6 game, it looked like another inaccurate throw by Geno was going to immediately lead to another pick and good field position, but it thankfully hit the ground. He shook that off by delivering his best drive of the game where he converted twice on third down. It led to a 50-yard field goal to make it 16-6 with just 1:56 left as the drive consumed 8:12. The rest of the NFC West – here’s looking at you, McVay and Shanahan – could learn from a drive like that by a team with a one-score lead.

That put the Cardinals into scramble mode, but the best they could do was a 47-yard field goal attempt with 15 seconds left. It was missed, so that was the game at 16-6.

It’s still a hard division to figure out as it may simply not have a good team this year, and the winner is just going to struggle at home in a wild card game against an NFC North runner-up like Green Bay or Minnesota.

But for now, Seattle is back on top and it was the defense that led the way this day.

Vikings at Bears: The Unexpected Passing Duel and One of the Best Failed Rally Attempts in History

I think it’s the rare game where both teams should feel pretty good about how they did with it ending 30-27 in overtime. It’s only the third game this season where both starting quarterbacks passed for over 300 yards.

Sam Darnold showed he can get through a road game without turning the ball over once, and still leading the team to 30 points despite Justin Jefferson having 2 catches for 27 yards. It was a huge day for Jordan Addison (162 yards) and T.J. Hockenson (114 yards).

Caleb Williams showed a lot of the playmaking ability that led to him being the No. 1 pick in the draft. The ball bounced his way a few times late, but he still made the plays to get two quick scoring drives to force overtime, and kicker Cairo Santos redeemed himself for last week’s block with a 48-yard field goal to go to overtime.

That late-game scenario was wild. I wanted to tweet about it but I was enjoying an early dinner during these frantic moments with the 1:00 PM games ending. I was going to say you could definitely argue the Vikings should go for a 4th-and-1 at the Chicago 7 at the 2:00 warning in a 24-16 game. If you get it, the game is over as Chicago was out of timeouts, and it was just 1 yard. If you don’t get it, you’re still up 8, ultimate cushion, and you have a long field to defend. Pretty envious situation.

But I was also going to add that if you can’t make a 26-yard field goal and defend an 11-point lead in 1:56, then maybe you don’t deserve to win. Well, I was wrong on that part, because the Vikings did botch the situation and still won the game.

They made the field goal to make it 27-16, but a long kick return put Williams at the Minnesota 40, a huge boost. They took their time to get the touchdown, but I like that more than the teams rushing out the field goal unit as we’ve seen too many times this year. I’d rather go for the touchdown, recover the onside kick, then complete one big pass to set up a FG, and that’s exactly what Chicago pulled off here.

Keenan Allen caught the 1-yard touchdown, D.J. Moore caught the 2-point conversion, and the Bears managed the hardest part of recovering an onside kick with 21 seconds left. One completion to Moore for 27 yards, a spike, and there was Sanots tying the game up from 48 yards.

That’s 11 points manufactured in the last 1:56, an incredible feat that I believe only two other teams have pulled off in a win since 2001, including the Bears in a game against Cleveland in 2001. The other such win was Joe Flacco leading the Jets back against Cleveland in 2022.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1726691828404195828

But as much as I want to say head coach Matt Eberflus did something incredibly stupid in overtime to lose another close game, this one was really on the rookie quarterback living (and in this case) dying by the sword. On the second play of overtime after taking the ball first, Williams scrambled for an eternity before taking an avoidable sack that lost 12 yards. Throw in a delay of game after that shock and it was 3rd-and-26, leading to a three-and-out. He has to be better than that, but at the same time, I get it. He was trying to make a play as he did several times in the game. But he really screwed that drive up.

While Darnold immediately took a sack on the other end to start his drive in a second-and-17 hole, he got the offense out of it with Hockenson and Addison gaining 20 yards on two completions. Jefferson made a 20-yard catch to avoid arguably the least effective game of his career, and then Hockenson delivered the kill shot with a 29-yard catch to the 9. Romo made the 29-yard field goal to win 30-27, and these days, you can’t take any kick for granted, so good on him for not Blair Walshing things.

Maybe it’s not the kind of win that will endear the Vikings (9-2) to skeptics, but I think it was a good, gut-check win on the road. The kind of game you hope that J.J McCarthy can handle in the future, because Williams is going to give the Vikings some problems and scares if this game is any sign of the future. He just has to work on getting better at knowing how to get rid of the ball and when to take his chances. But he’s a rookie and he should improve on that.

Eagles at Rams: Trench Warfare

These are two recent Super Bowl teams in the NFC who got there in large part because of the talent they built in the trenches on both sides of the ball. But the Eagles have restocked well in that regard while the Rams are still lacking on both sides, especially for protecting Matthew Stafford and replacing a legend like Aaron Donald on defense.

It was never more evident than on Sunday night when Stafford had little time to hold the ball and had to deliver in a hurry to Kupp and Nacua, who made plays but not nearly enough to keep up with the Eagles. Even without DeVonta Smith, the Eagles still have plenty of speed and weaponry to drop 37 points, and that starts with huge lanes through blocking for Saquon Barkley to speed through.

The first half was competitive with the Eagles only leading 13-7, but Barkley changed that in a hurry with a 70-yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage in the third quarter. He added a 72-yard run with 2:44 left when the game was already in hand at 30-14, but that helped push him to 255 rushing yards to go along with 47 receiving yards for a grand total of 302 scrimmage yards.

That will put him in the MVP conversation for sure, and it looks like his odds have already shot up from +6500 at FanDuel as of Friday to +650 now. Can have that conversation about whether he deserves it another time. The Eagles-Ravens game next week should be huge for awards this season.

Lions at Colts: Workman Like Win for the Lions

The Lions aren’t going to wow you with the numbers this week, but they got the job done in a 24-6 road win in Indy. Hard to argue with holding the ball for 37 minutes, going 9-of-15 on third down, no turnovers, and holding Anthony Richardson to 11-of-28 passing. Well, maybe he held himself to those numbers again as consistent offense has been an issue all season, but the Colts never strung together enough plays to put any of their nine drives in the end zone.

Punting four straight times out of the half had to sting, because despite the decent numbers I just posted for Detroit, you have to accept that as a solid day by your defense against an offense this potent. They did sack Jared Goff three times, they didn’t give up a run longer than 17 yards or a pass longer than 27 yards. You have to manage more than two field goals at home. Simple as that.

Patriots at Dolphins: Tua’s Whipping Boys

It still bugs me that Tua Tagovailoa is the quarterback who gets to start his career 7-0 against the Patriots, because he would have struggled like hell to do this against New England in their heyday. But he had a huge game here with over 300 yards and 4 touchdown passes as Jerod Mayo’s defense just can’t cover receivers well this year.

It was 31-0 before the Patriots finally scored a touchdown on a 4th-and-15 miracle from Drake Maye. Throw in a defensive touchdown after a backup running back fumbled, and it was only mildly interesting as a 31-15 game with 10:10 left. But Maye was intercepted the next time he had the ball, leading to a 34-15 final.

The Dolphins (5-6) are playing better than a lot of teams right now, but we’ll see if they can steal one in Green Bay this Thursday night to maybe give themselves a legitimate shot at running the table and getting in the tournament. That has to be their toughest test yet with the way the 49ers and Texans have fallen off.

Broncos at Raiders: The Sweep Is Complete

The Broncos went from an 8-game losing streak to the Raiders in the 2020s to a sweep this season after taking care of business on the road in a 29-19 win to improve to 7-5. The turning point was a horrible interception by Gardner Minshew in the third quarter while the Raiders led 13-9. That set up an 18-yard field for Bo Nix to exploit, and the Broncos never trailed the rest of the way.

Minshew broke his collarbone, a season-ending injury, and he was replaced by Desmond Ridder, who coughed up the ball deep in his own end with 2:21 left, setting up the Broncos for another short-field score on a field goal to make it 29-19. They even saved the cover (Broncos -5.5) by sacking Ridder from the 1-yard line on the final snap.

I’d say I don’t understand why the Raiders didn’t immediately call their last timeout and kick a short field goal on a 4th-and-1 before trying the onside kick, but this is Antonio Pierce’s team. Why would you expect competency?

Buccaneers at Giants: Can We Send the Giants and Jets to the UFL?

MetLife Stadium is where competitive, interesting football goes to die. I’m over the Jets and Giants – their existence, I mean. Daniel Jones is gone, and in the first game without him, the Giants fell behind 30-0 and were embarrassed by Baker Mayfield and company.

Tommy DeVito played worse than he did as a rookie, but at this point, why even try to win a game? Just tank, get a top pick, and fire the head coach while you’re at it. Nothing about this is working. Might as well find the next coach and quarterback who might be able to get a single target to Malik Nabers before halftime.

Next week: It’s Thanksgiving and the Dolphins-Packers game looks a lot better than it did a month ago, but you should know I’m backing the home team with a winning record, Mike McDaniel’s kryptonite. The Chiefs haven’t lost a home game since Christmas against the Raiders, so they better be ready for Desmond Ridder, Daniel Jones, or whatever the hell the Raiders start at quarterback on Black Friday. As for Sunday, got some interesting ones with Chargers-Falcons, Steelers-Bengals, and Eagles-Ravens at 4:25. The 49ers desperately need Brock Purdy to start SNF in Buffalo or that’s going to be a dud. Browns-Broncos is semi-interesting on MNF, concluding one long week of football.

NFL 2024 Week 12 Predictions: Harbaugh Bowl Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I feel some deja vu as it’s another weekend, I’m writing these predictions late at night, and my nose has been running since Thursday night. I went through the same thing for months last year where I often felt sick around the weekends and seemingly always tried to rush through these predictions.

So, I’m doing it again here, but I did just drop a 4 AM rant on Twitter (fvck off, Elon) about YAC, the Chiefs, and NextGenStats’ YAC Over Expected (YACOE) stat. Figured I did the data the other day and it didn’t share it anywhere, so I might as well get it out there before Sunday’s games.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1860247601511055634

Anyways, not a lot of good games this weekend, so it’s actually Monday night, the Ravens-Chargers Harbaugh Bowl, that I’m looking forward to the most here.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 12 Predictions

Taking Steelers -3.5 was one of my dumbest picks of the year as I warned about this being a typical “Steelers play down to the competition and probably lose” games under Tomlin, who coached one of his worst games ever. I should have at least said Browns +3.5 since you knew even if the Steelers won, it’d be by a FG at best. But they blew it. Baltimore rejoices.

Vikings-Bears: Nothing would surprise me but I’m just going to be content with the Vikings being better on both sides of the ball. And of course I think Eberflus is one of the worst coaches in NFL history in close games.

Bucs-Giants: Again, I was on the Tommy DeVito bandwagon for showing up Daniel Jones this week in his first start against a TB defense that gives up a lot of yards. But I’m cooling off that once I read that Malik Nabers missed Friday’s practice with a groin injury. That’s not good news for this passing game.

Patriots-Dolphins: I think Tua Tagovailoa will go to 7-0 against the Patriots, but I also think Drake Maye can keep it close enough for a cover against that defense.

Titans-Texans: Another division game, I just think the Texans can start rolling offensively with Collins and Mixon together, and I like the defense to sack Will Levis 5+ times and force some turnovers too.

Cowboys-Commanders: Yep, division games can be tricky, but I just think the Cowboys are mailing it in, Cooper Rush is trash, and Jayden Daniels will look sharper with a few extra days to rest since TNF last week. They’ve blown out several teams already this year too.

Chiefs-Panthers: The Chiefs haven’t really blown anyone out since Chicago last year, the Taylor Swift debut game. Sure, it should happen in Carolina, but with the way Chuba is running it, the way the Chiefs have played some spotty defense the last month, and the way the offense is always good for a mistake to deny itself points — throw in the backdoor cover too — and I’m still going with the classic Chiefs win but don’t cover.

Lions-Colts: I see potential for a 30-20 game where Anthony Richardson makes plays but just can’t keep up with that Detroit machine in the end.

Broncos-Raiders: Okay, that’s 7 division games this week. The Raiders were unbeatable for the Broncos in 2020-23, but I think Denver pulls off the sweep here. It was 34-18 last time and Bo Nix is playing with more confidence now.

49ers-Packers: I was so tempted to take SF +5.5, but it’s not just Brock Purdy being replaced by Brandon Allen. Nick Bosa is banged up and out too. I think even Trent Williams has something going on this week, so it truly is an injury-ravaged season for the 49ers at 5-5, and a game like this could squash them for the wild card, leaving the NFC West title as their only playoff path. Bad timing for a Purdy injury. Of course, a Jordan Love pick parade can turn this one in SF’s favor, but I think he protects the ball and makes up for the playoff loss the best he can with a win here.

Cardinals-Seahawks: Could actually turn out to be the best game or at least the best 4Q on Sunday. Late slate anyway. I’m going to take Seattle at home to edge them out with perhaps another GWD by Geno. That’s how these games have gone in the NFC West this year. Someone makes a 4QC. But both are capable and I’m not surprised it’s the smallest spread of the week.

Eagles-Rams: Saw some splits that made me want to take the Rams, but I just think the Eagles have too many weapons for this bland defense to stop, and the Eagles have the secondary this year to deal with Nacua and Kupp better. Even last year they shut them out after halftime with that bad Philly defense.

Ravens-Chargers: Read my Week 12 picks for a parlay and game script for this one. I think the Ravens make up for last week and get a win in a 23-20 or 27-24 type of game, and I think a little Chargering returns to completion this time on the other side after nearly giving it up to the Bengals last week. But it should be a good one.

NFL 2024 Week 10 Predictions: All Eyes on Washington Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

If you thought the title would be a nod to the 2024 election this week, you’d be right. If you think I’m going to give Orange Caligula any more oxygen in this space right now, you’d be wrong. He should die of gonorrhea and rot in hell. The Washington I’m watching this weekend is the Commanders, and I’m excited to finally see a full live game with Jayden Daniels. I think Steelers-Commanders is clearly the highlight game on Sunday, and we’ll see if a return by Nico Collins in Houston could bolster that matchup on SNF.

But I also want to quickly point out that Week 9 was a great reminder that you don’t always have to pick underdogs just for the sake of picking them. I’ve been guilty of that a lot this season as I didn’t want to just publish picks where the favorite covers and wins. But in Week 9, favorites were 14-1 SU (God damn Saints) and 10-5 ATS. Almost perfect.

Favorites have been on a good run after a lot of upsets early this season in the games with the biggest spreads. But now that we’re into the second half of the 2024 regular season, we are seeing this is a top-heavy season. There are nine teams with just 2 wins going into Sunday. The last team who makes the playoffs in the AFC could be a mess unless the Bengals or Jets finish strong. The NFC is stronger, but the NFC West has been messy with the teams blowing double-digit leads against each other as they jumble around .500 right now. The Cowboys have fallen apart sooner than expected.

It’s getting easier to pick winners since the games are usually playing out as lopsided as they look on paper now. But I will say that doesn’t apply to Sunday’s first game in Germany where we somehow sent the Giants and Panthers. We’re not sending (or voting for) our best.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 10 Predictions

Silly me for thinking the Ravens-Bengals would at least try to play a different game script than Week 5. But it turned into more of the same with the Bengals choking away a game they should have won (again). Maybe neither team ultimately decides who wins the Super Bowl this year, but the thin margin in those games is something else. We’re two solid snaps away from the Bengals at 6-4 and the Ravens at 5-5 right now.

Panthers-Giants: Not a chance I won’t be sawing logs during this one. But I think Carolina can build off its win and use Chuba Hubbard against that poor run defense. Giants having to win by 6.5 against anyone with Daniel Jones feels like a lot.

Patriots-Bears: Not sure how to react to Bears playing so poorly on offense since the bye. Just banking on hope that Maye makes some mistakes and Caleb channels his 2022 Justin Fields against the New England defense with a big game.

Bills-Colts: I’m very tempted to take both the Bills and Chiefs to struggle this Sunday with their big showdown a week away. Shades of 1990 Giants-49ers when they were supposed to meet undefeated and both lost the week before. I think Joe Flacco will definitely score more this week to keep the job, but I’m still going to trust the Bills on the road. But I won’t be surprised if they win by 3 and don’t cover.

Vikings-Jaguars: Can Sam Darnold get a call for a blow to the head this week? I just think the Vikings are better on both sides of the ball and should win by a touchdown.

Broncos-Chiefs: Odds are suggesting a 24-17 game and that passes the sniff test for me. Division games are weird. Sean Payton got a couple of cracks at the Chiefs last year. At least Mahomes shouldn’t have the flu this time, but I don’t think the Chiefs will score a ton against a team that knows them well and has mostly played good defense this year. All comes down to how Bo Nix handles the blitzes sure to come his way, but I think his mobility could be very useful here. I’ll go with the KC classic: they win and don’t cover.

Falcons-Saints: This is going against the grain but I’m calling for the upset. Everyone is shitting on the Saints, including the Pope having fun with hashtags on Twitter. But I think they get a first-game interim coach boost, they’re due for a 4QC win (none since 2023 started), and the Falcons needed 2 return touchdowns to beat them at home earlier this season. The losing streak stops here. If not, then I’m probably not picking them the rest of the season in any game.

49ers-Bucs: CMC is finally back, but even if he wasn’t, I think the 49ers coming off a bye and feeling healthier is an easy pick against the Bucs, who left the tank empty on Monday night in KC. I view this game quite similarly to Jags-Vikings this week. I know, the 6.5-point spread is the kiss of death this season, but I just feel good about the 49ers here.

Steelers-Commanders: I think it’s a 23-20 type of game that comes down to the last seconds and a FG. I’m going to go with Washington, because I believe the Steelers aren’t well prepared for this impressive rookie who can attack them at every level of the field. Unfamiliar opponents. Of course, it wouldn’t shock me if the Steelers won 23-17. Why that score? That’s the score they won by on the road in Arizona in 2019 against Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray, and that’s the score Washington won by in Pittsburgh in 2020 on a Monday, the game that was the beginning of the end for the Pittsburgh offense looking functional under Big Ben. But I’m still going to trust Jayden Daniels in this one as he’s actually 5-0 ATS as a favorite this year. It should be fun.

Titans-Chargers: Will Levis is back, and he’s facing the No. 1 scoring defense? Then I think the streak of games under 40 points for the Chargers can continue. Give me LA 23-13.

Jets-Cardinals: It’s not so much that I believe the Jets are going to start reeling off wins, but I just don’t know what to make of Arizona yet. Apparently I’m not alone as this is a small spread in a week with 8 games having a spread of 5.5 and higher.

Cowboys-Eagles: You might say the Eagles should dominate, but they nearly blew a 22-0 lead to Trevor Lawrence last week. Mike McCarthy usually does a respectable job with backup QBs like Cooper Rush, who made it a 20-17 game in the fourth quarter in 2022 when he was in Philly on SNF with the Eagles during their peak run to that Super Bowl year. He lost 26-17 in the end, and he threw 3 picks, but I think the Cowboys will actually make this respectable before losing again. Backdoor cover is always an option.

Lions-Texans: Preview link above but I just think the Texans are the inferior team here, and the Lions should keep rolling. But I am intrigued by the No. 1 defense in lowest completion % vs. No. 1 QB in highest completion % as Goff is over 83% in his last 5 games. But if it’s actually close, don’t discount some C.J. Stroud magic now that Nico Collins is back. Still, it’s a bummer Diggs tore his ACL as this one had high potential for a non-conference game on SNF. It still might deliver.

Dolphins-Rams: I always say fade the Dolphins on the road against good teams, but are the Rams still good? It’s hard to say, but I’m taking them with their weapons. Hopefully we can avoid a Puka ejection this week.

NFL 2024 Week 8 Predictions: Ducking the Dogs Again Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

As much as I want to believe most NFL teams are mediocre at best this season, I find myself looking over the Week 8 schedule and again struggling to pick upsets. Favorites have had a strong two weeks after faltering to begin this season.

We already had an upset on Thursday night, but it would have been nice to get some actual clarity on the health of the Rams’ wide receivers since that clearly makes a difference. I thought Cooper Kupp had a shot to play, but I didn’t know Puka Nacua was even going to be active until 50 minutes before kickoff. Oh well.

But I think this week has taken a hit as the big 49ers-Cowboys game looks less important with both teams struggling and missing so many key players. Might actually make for a better game and give Dallas more of a chance, because the 49ers have been a big roadblock for them in the NFC since 2021. But it’s not quite must-see TV this Sunday night.

Funny enough, Commanders-Bears was supposed to be a great game for Week 8 so much that the league even flexed it into the late-afternoon slot. In any other year, we’d groan at a matchup between these teams being shown to most of the country, but this one actually had us interested with these rookie quarterbacks. Of course, Jayden Daniels has a rib injury and it isn’t looking great for him to play. Guess we’ll see.

But yeah, I have low expectations for this week, which means it will probably be an epic Sunday of close games after so few last week.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 8 Predictions

Like I said, already failed by the Vikings, who lost their second game this week.

Cardinals-Dolphins: Some hedging here with ATS/ML differences. Could be a rough game for the Cardinals, but they’ve also won on the road against the Steelers and Eagles last year under Gannon. But with Tua Tagovailoa coming back, I could see a 3-point win here for Miami. I believe Kyler and Tua played a game like that in 2020 already.

Jets-Patriots: Look, I’m picking the Jets until they end this losing streak. Belichick is gone, so they can start beating the Pats again, and so far NE is their only dominant win of the season. It may not be 24-3 again, but despite Drake Maye getting production in the passing game for this team, let’s not ignore that they still lost by 20 and 16 points in his starts.

Eagles-Bengals: Nice matchup of teams who peaked in 2022. I’m trusting A.J. Brown to have a big game against that secondary, and I trust Jalen Hurts more than Joe Burrow with the game on the line. Both teams look fishy at times, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it come down to the end.

Packers-Jags: I think Jordan Love has a big game against that defense and Trevor Lawrence struggles against a GB defense that held C.J. Stroud under 100 yards last week. Sweat-free GB win.

Falcons-Bucs: I would absolutely take Tampa in this rematch from Week 5 if Mike Evans and Chris Godwin weren’t out injured. I don’t trust the remaining wideouts for the Bucs, and I think Cousins will bounce back from a bad loss against Seattle against the defense he torched for 509 yards already. Bucs just looked terrible on defense Monday night, leaving receivers open everywhere.

Ravens-Browns: Maybe a trap game for Ravens coming off big road MNF win where they still gave up a lot of points in the end. I think with Kevin Stefanski having Jameis Winston, Nick Chubb, and David Njoku to run this offense instead of Amari Cooper dropping passes from Predator will be good for Cleveland. It just won’t result in a win this week.

Colts-Texans: Indy gave Houston a lot of trouble in Week 1, but the Texans were at their most efficient on offense with Joe Mixon and Nico Collins available. That won’t be the case this time, but Anthony Richardson probably won’t hit a 60+ yard bomb again either. Give me Houston to rebound from last week’s loss.

Titans-Lions: I think this is the biggest spread of the season. I can see Detroit winning a 34-17 game here to cover. The Titans just can’t score much while we know Detroit is rolling right now with big plays.

Saints-Chargers: Very tempted to take Saints ATS but they just looked so bad against the Broncos at home. Harbaugh will have the defense playing tough, and Herbert will get into the end zone this week.

Bills-Seahawks; Good upset spot for Seattle but I just don’t see it without DK Metcalf available. He’s the kind of athletic freak who would be a difference maker in this one as you need to get ahead of Buffalo early and be ready to score a fair number of points.

Bears-Commanders: I think the spread is suggesting bad news for the Commanders getting Jayden Daniels in this matchup. If he plays, you have to worry about an early exit again, and Marcus Mariota likely won’t play as well against a solid defense with an improved offense coming off the bye. But I’m avoiding that game for bets for now until we learn more about Daniels.

Panthers-Broncos: You think Bo Nix getting a 10.5-point spread is funny? It seems crazy, but Bryce Young has scored 13 points in his last 4 starts, the Denver defense is playing great, and the Panthers won’t have Diontae Johnson or Adam Thielen. It could end 20-3 for all we know.

Chiefs-Raiders: I think the Chiefs make up for their Christmas loss to the Raiders with an impressive double-digit win, which would be their third in a row by the way. They like playing in Allegiant Stadium.

Cowboys-49ers: Got the preview link above, but basically I think San Francisco has owned this matchup on both sides of the ball. Dak Prescott hasn’t broke 12 points in his last two games against SF, and the Cowboys won’t have Micah Parsons on defense.

Giants-Steelers: Pittsburgh is 21-0 at home on MNF since 1992. Granted, their last loss was to the Giants in a 23-20 game in 1991. But I am going to trust Russell Wilson to put up some points (not as many as last week), and T.J. Watt to do his best against Daniel Jones.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I loved the NFL’s Week 7 schedule more than I probably loved the games themselves on Sunday. It wasn’t bad, and most of the top games delivered, but it definitely felt like a return to a lot of weak offense around the league.

 It’s also been oddly one-sided as just four games had a comeback opportunity going into Monday night’s double-header that should hopefully add to that total with Baltimore’s shaky closing abilities and the Chargers just generally being the Chargers.

But that’s a low number of close games despite four teams coming back from a 10-0 deficit to win (Jaguars, Lions, Colts, and Bills). The only fourth-quarter lead changes happened in the two NFC North games.

There were also many quarterback injuries in games, including the one that most people had no problem seeing. That doesn’t mean you wished for it, but you certainly aren’t going to shed a tear or think of it as a loss for the team.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Lions at Vikings: Game of the Week

With the 49ers falling apart, these NFC North games are turning into the biggest ones in the NFC this season, and Week 7 was one hell of a time to test out the Lions and Vikings. We got to see the Vikings after a bye week, and the Lions right after losing Aidan Hutchinson last week.

This 31-29 game managed to exceed the hype. The Lions failed on one of the worst fake punts you’ll ever see to start the game, then lost David Montgomery to an injury and trailed 10-0. Hard to start worse than that.

But Jared Goff completed his first 15 passes, Jahmyr Gibbs broke off a long touchdown run, and the Lions soon led 21-10 at halftime. I liked Detroit in this one because it already has two games of experience late last season against Brian Flores’ defense. They wouldn’t be as shocked by it as these other teams have been this year.

But that doesn’t mean Goff wasn’t under pressure often and had to carve up the blitz. He took 4 sacks and fumbled twice (neither lost) in the game, so it was a tough one. But he hung in there and completed 22-of-25 passes for 280 yards as he is playing as well as any quarterback right now.

Sam Darnold actually had some similar numbers in this game with 22-of-27 for 259 yards and 4 sacks. Justin Jefferson had another big game against the Lions, including a touchdown in the third quarter to make it 21-17.

But while Montgomery returned to the game, it wasn’t for the best. With 6:00 left, Montgomery lost the ball on a run and the Vikings scooped it up for a stunning 36-yard touchdown to take a 29-28 lead with 5:50 left. Huge miss on the 2-point conversion, however.

The Lions went three-and-out with Goff getting sacked on third down again. The Vikings could have ran out the clock on offense, but they too went three-and-out. Gibbs took over instead of Montgomery for the game-winning drive and delivered a huge moment with the drive’s first 34 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught a 14-yard pass, and the Lions were in field goal range.

I know Dan Campbell is as aggressive as they come, but I didn’t love the conservative approach with conceding the long field goal. I’d want to get as close as possible for an unproven pro kicker in Jake Bates, the UFL standout. But from 44 yards away, Bates delivered on the biggest kick of his brief NFL career to put the Lions up 31-29.

Darnold had 15 seconds left at his own 30. He got the ball to midfield, and I’m not sure an illegal formation penalty on a spike with 1 second left (debatable) shouldn’t just be a game-ending penalty with a 10-second runoff. That felt fishy. But the Vikings had one last chance for a Hail Mary, and you never know with Jefferson down there. However, it ended in a fitting way as the Lions sacked Darnold on his ass to end the game and escape with the win.

In the end, the big plays by the Lions were too much for Minnesota to overcome. But I’m looking forward to the other NFC North clashes this year when the Packers get involved too.

Chiefs at 49ers: Super Bowl Rematch Sees These Teams Further Apart as Injuries Mount

To date, the only direct Super Bowl rematch was Dallas vs. Buffalo in 1992-93. With the way these teams are going, we won’t see another in February. Injuries are doing their damage, but the Chiefs remain the NFL’s last unbeaten at 6-0, winners of 12 straight, while the 49ers are flailing at 3-4 after this 28-18 loss at home despite being a 2.5-point favorite.

That means Patrick Mahomes continues to be the ultimate underdog with an 11-3 SU record, but this game was little about him. This was a showcase for the defense, and even if you acknowledge the injuries for the 49ers, they still had talent on that field and the system and mind of Kyle Shanahan calling plays. The Chiefs forced Brock Purdy into one of his roughest games in the NFL as he was intercepted three times, including a total headscratcher in the end zone in the fourth quarter when the 49ers trailed 21-12. Even if he wasn’t pressured as he threw it, that pass looked like it was going right to the defender either way.

Mahomes also had two interceptions in this game, but while he’s had some headscratchers this year, it’s hard to say he did wrong on a tipped pass at the line and a play where the receiver (Xavier Worthy) fell on his route. There were at least four Chiefs who slipped on Mahomes’ incompletions in the game.

But this is the value of the Chiefs in 2024. Even when the team is turning it over multiple times or doing something silly like a fake punt that failed miserably, they overcome it with their defense, and they still score a fair number of points. They scored 28 points in this one with three of those touchdown drives from long distance.

Mahomes’ best play was as a runner when it was a tight 14-12 game. He tightrope-walked the sideline and stayed in bounds for a 33-yard run that set up his first touchdown run since 2022 on a 4th-and-goal at the 1 to make it 21-12.

Still, it’s wild to see the injuries for these teams. Both starting running backs (Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco) were out. The Chiefs were already missing their top wideouts (Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown), and then their new de-facto No. 1, JuJu Smith-Schuster, left the game early after aggravating his hamstring. The 49ers lost Deebo Samuel quickly to an illness, Brandon Aiyuk was knocked out with a potentially serious injury, and Jauan Jennings, who actually leads the team in receiving yards before this game, was already inactive. Just a mess.

But the Chiefs still found ways to score four touchdowns and actually were leading by 16 points before a San Francisco touchdown made it a 28-18 final. That final score by the Chiefs got them to 28 points, the first time they scored that much during this 12-game winning streak.

That just creates a new record, however. The Chiefs are the first team in NFL history to win 12 straight games without scoring more than 28 points in any of them. Their next opponent (Raiders) is the last team to beat them, but this season is beyond fucked if that ends up being their first loss in 2024.

It’s coming eventually with the way they’re playing, but they were still impressive enough in this game. Not everyone can do that to the 49ers, injuries or not.

Texans at Packers: My Preseason Hype Teams Played the Walk-Off FG Finish I Expected

I’ve been high on the Texans and Packers as “new powers” in the league since February really. I was looking forward to this one since we probably won’t get many games between Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud, but I was stunned at just how well Green Bay limited the Houston passing game.

The Packers have feasted on turnovers this year while still giving up their share of yards and points. But this was an impressive performance where they really held Stroud in check without a single takeaway. They held him to 86 passing yards on 21 throws, and they sacked him 4 times while flustering him all day. The Texans scored on a lot of short fields and couldn’t really sustain offense.

On the other side, Jordan Love had one of those mixed games where he made some “wow” throws, but he had a few more picks, and he couldn’t get some of his best receivers going against this pass defense.

But it was a close game as I expected. I picked the Texans to win because I trust Stroud more than Love in those moments. Sure enough, Stroud saved probably his best throw of the game for a late third down when the Texans were driving in a 21-19 game late. But the Packers had all of their timeouts, and the Texans failed to get the touchdown or a first down to run out the clock for their field goal. They had to settle for taking a 22-21 lead with 1:44 left.

A lead is a lead, but that’s not a very safe one with that much time left. However, I wanted to see how Love would fare here as we have seen him struggle to come up with a field goal in these moments. Think of last year in games like Atlanta, Denver, or San Francisco in the playoffs. He was only 2-8 at comeback opportunities before Sunday.

Also, the Packers have been going through kickers like crazy, so you had to wonder how newly signed Brandon McManus would do. I know him best from Denver, and he’s been an adequate enough kicker in his career.

But Love had to get him in range, and that didn’t prove to be a big problem this time. He marched the offense 44 yards in a hurry. McManus was left with a 45-yard kick to win it, and after an icing attempt, he delivered the goods for a 24-22 win. That’s a quality one for the Packers this year.

Jets at Steelers: Tomlin Knew

For the last six weeks, I’ve basically come on here and said that I’m not impressed with what Justin Fields is doing in the Pittsburgh offense. He looked a lot like the quarterback from Chicago in that he’s slow with his decisions, he rifles too many throws, doesn’t make the touch passes on time, he’s a magnet for sacks and fumbles, and he’s possibly the least clutch QB of the 21st century.

Yet, the NFL groupthink seemed to get stronger every week that Fields is now good, and the Steelers would be crazy to bench him for old Russell Wilson. They kept citing the 4-2 record, even though the Steelers had not won a game when the opponent scored more than 13 points all season. The offense, including Fields himself, had a lot of mediocre rankings as well. These were results you could certainly improve on with a quarterback of Wilson’s experience. He only was out because of his calf. He was going to be the Week 1 starter otherwise.

So, I was always hoping for Mike Tomlin to come to his senses and start Wilson, but I was skeptical he’d actually do it because of the team’s record. Yet, Tomlin had the balls this week to defy that national NFL groupthink and go with Wilson. People created silly stats like the “first 4-2 quarterback to get benched” when it’s not even the first time in Pittsburgh history. Joe Gilliam was benched for Terry Bradshaw in 1974 despite starting 4-1-1, a better record than 4-2. But I guess since it’s not exactly 4-2, they think their insignificant stat has meaning. Screw that.

I still liked the Jets to win the game Sunday night, but that’s because I had much higher expectations for Aaron Rodgers and that offense after a good showing (kicker aside) against Buffalo last week, and the addition of Davante Adams via trade. Sure enough, Rodgers threw his first pass to Rodgers, but the receiver couldn’t pull it in, and he finished with just 3 catches for 30 yards on 9 targets as Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson looked better in that offense.

Well, Wilson was fine until the third quarter when he popped an easy catch into the air for an interception that was returned to the 1. There’s your game changer. Rodgers didn’t have a good game and especially not a good second half, but that second pick was not his fault at all. The Jets just have many issues.

As for Wilson, he no doubt got off to a bad start. After he attempted to kill Earthworm Jim on back-to-back plays, I thought he really did go The Full McNabb with 2011 Vikings vibes. Someone sign Christian Ponder.

But games are 60 minutes, and we know even in Russ’ prime he could start a game ugly. Before you knew it, he had as many passing yards at halftime as Fields had in half of his full games this season. Wilson throws with more touch, he gives his receivers more opportunities down the field, and he makes better and faster decisions with the ball than Fields. Did he get lucky on a few passes? Sure, but it was his first game in 10 months, and his first with Pittsburgh. Do you remember how Rodgers looked in his first games of the last two seasons with New York, or Tom Brady’s debut in Tampa Bay? It was worse than this.

Wilson did a very nice job, and he showed he was mobile enough to only take 1 sack on the night. He also didn’t throw any picks. Justin Fields has literally never had a start in the NFL where he threw no picks and didn’t take multiple sacks. Wilson did that in his first game with Pittsburgh. He also didn’t fumble like Fields did weekly. The running game also didn’t die with him in there as Najee Harris continues to look highly motivated these last two games. George Pickens also caught his first touchdown of the season.

Russ had a definite huge impact on the offense, and he feels more in control at the line than Fields ever did. He won’t run as fast as Fields, but he rarely needs to. That’s not the kind of quarterback play that’s going to take you far, and Tomlin understands that. I think benching Fields will prove to be one of his smartest moves in years.

The quarterback who actually looked too old and slow on Sunday night was Rodgers. Is he going to trade Wilson next after that dropped pass turned pick? They’re 2-5 and fading fast even in a weakened AFC.

But Sunday night was a great one for Tomlin and anyone who didn’t see what the fuss was with Fields all these weeks.

Titans at Bills: Box Score Blowout Doesn’t Tell the Story

The numbers are going to make this one look like a boring rout, a 34-10 blowout where Josh Allen threw for over 300 yards, Amari Cooper caught a touchdown in his team debut, and the Titans still struggled to score with Mason Rudolph starting for an injured Will Levis (AC joint).

Those things are all true, but this was a tough game for Buffalo deep into the third quarter. The Bills went three-and-out 3 times in the first quarter and fell behind 10-0. Cooper dropped his first target. Rudolph was outplaying Allen.

But the Titans really screwed themselves to start the second half when they went for a 4th-and-2 at their own 44 and Tony Pollard was stuffed for a big loss. Why would they do that with a 10-7 lead? The offense was not thriving to the point where you could trust them to convert and actually turn it into points.

The defense was playing well, and Buffalo was struggling on offense. This just gave them a huge boost as Allen took the field 41 yards away from the end zone and the drive ended with Cooper scoring. The Bills led the rest of the game. Terrible decision by the Titans to go for it.

The Bills padded some stats late with the game in hand, including a 16-yard touchdown run after the 2-minute warning. But the Titans had a shot for most of this game. Far from your normal 34-10 rout.

Seahawks at Falcons: Surprising Rout

These teams have played many close games, and you just expected that sort of finish in a passing fest between Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins. Actually, I thought it’d be a passing clinic with Geno facing a defense without a pass rush, but he moved around well and threw for 181 yards at halftime. I just didn’t expect him to barely finish the game with 200 yards as the run game and defense showed up for Seattle to finish the Falcons off in maybe their worst team performance of the season.

Just when you thought Cousins would make it a one-score game while trailing 24-14 in the fourth quarter, the Seahawks had the plot twist with a strip-sack and recovery for a touchdown to make it 31-14 with 12:4 6 left. Cousins threw another pick on the next drive, and we ended up seeing the first NFL completion of rookie Michael Penix’s career before this one ended 34-14.

No quarterback controversy in Atlanta (yet), but this one surprised me as I thought for sure the Falcons would do more damage against that Seattle defense in the dome.

Eagles at Giants: The Saquon Revenge Game Delivers

Revenge games can be overrated but running back Saquon Barkley had one of the best you’ll ever see for the Eagles against his Giants. He really carried the offense with 176 yards on just 17 carries, and he scored the game’s first touchdown, which might have been enough given the Giants could only muster a field goal in the 28-3 blowout.

That left Jalen Hurts with an easy job as he only had to throw for 114 yards. The game was avert-your-eyes bad for pass blocking as all four quarterbacks who played took sacks, including backup Kenny Pickett, and there were 13 sacks total between the teams.

Naturally, Daniel Jones took the worst of it with 7 sacks in a game where he didn’t have left tackle Andrew Thomas (surgery). Jones finished with 43 yards on 28 pass plays, which is pathetic even for his low standards.

The Giants punted 11 times, so they were even absurdly boring in blowout fashion. At least throw some picks. Risk something.

Bengals at Browns: When Losing Is Good

The Browns got Nick Chubb back for the first time in over a year, and they lost Deshaun Watson for the season to a torn Achilles on a non-contact play. All in all, that sounds like a great day, right?

Oddly enough, Chubb scored a touchdown on the drive where Watson was injured right before the half. Almost as if karma was taking over and the fortune was changing for Cleveland. But I thought it was odd before the game that Jameis Winston was announced as the No. 3 quarterback, demoted for the young Dorian Thompson-Robinson. What did Jameis do to get demoted? I thought he was the best quarterback on this roster.

It may have cost the Browns too, because DTR stunk off the bench. He completed 11-of-24 passes for 82 yards with multiple picks. A 34-yard run was his longest play on a day the Browns couldn’t actually run the ball on Cincinnati, a defense that has done a huge turnaround these last two weeks thanks to playing lines like the Giants and Browns in 2024.

But DTR was injured, allowing Winston to play in the fourth quarter. But it was too late by then. The Bengals started the game with a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown, but that Joe Burrow-led offense managed just two touchdowns in this 21-14 final. Another ho-hum performance where the Bengals were fortunate to be playing a bad team.

But the Watson story is over for 2024, and maybe that could help the Browns move on from him faster. Cleveland players supported Watson after the game and criticized the fans for cheering his injury. I could see where they’re coming from as teammates, and probably as players who hope they aren’t cheered while injured down the road. But they should also understand why fans feel that way about Watson.

Of course, I wouldn’t expect Winston or Myles Garrett to be the voice of reason on this topic. Winston is especially a bad messenger for this, and Garrett should know better as someone who is supposed to be the face of the franchise.

But it was nice to see Chubb back and in the end zone. More of that going forward.

Patriots vs. Jaguars: Do I Get on a Soapbox Again About That Strategy?

I didn’t get up to watch this one and see the Jaguars explode back from a 10-0 hole, but I was awake to see the 2-point conversion strategy become a talking point again. The Patriots were down 25-10, scored a touchdown with 8:22 left, decided to go for 2, didn’t get it, and they trailed by 9+ for the rest of the game, which eventually became a 32-16 loss after a poor finish.

I am consistently against going for 2 on the first touchdown as it is the strategy more likely to lead you into needing one onside kick recovery, if not two, and I never want anything to do with that hopeless endeavor. I also think the later in the game, the worse of a strategy it is. This wasn’t super late, but you have to keep in mind the Patriots hadn’t scored since the first quarter.

Also, when people talk about having “more information” aspect of it, do they ever consider things like the fact that the Patriots never ran a play from deeper than the Jacksonville 16 in this game? Seriously. Their failed 2-point conversion attempt was their only snap inside the final 15 yards of opponent territory in the game. Not exactly much practice at running your red zone and goal line packages in this game. Instead you’re completely cold to that area in the game, and now you have to make this crucial play or you’re down 2 scores with half a quarter left. Just something to consider that I never see considered. I don’t think confidence gets considered enough, not to mention the hopelessness felt from being down 2 scores.

But I don’t feel like getting into it any more over an inconsequential game between two of the worst teams in the league. I just know when the Patriots forced a punt and got the ball back with 3:58 left, it sure as hell would have been nicer if they were down 25-17 instead of 25-16. That way you could even punt on 4th-and-26 instead of having to go for it and for sure ending the game early with a big loss.

At least give me a chance in a one-score game. But the Patriots should again feel some encouragement with Drake Maye, who threw for 276 yards, 2 more touchdowns, and only took 2 sacks on 37 pass attempts. I’m not sure what sitting behind Jacoby Brissett did for him, but I’m glad we’re past that part of the season.

That still doesn’t mean I want to wake up at 9:30 A.M. to watch the post-Belichick Patriots play overseas against the London Jaguars.

Raiders at Rams: The “If a Bear Shits in the Woods…” Game of the Week

It’s a little early in the season to just not care at all about these teams, but that’s where I am already. I just don’t see either being part of the playoff picture. Matthew Stafford and Gardner Minshew both threw for 154 yards in this game, though Minshew did his work off the bench after starter Aidan O’Connell left with an injury.

But the Raiders kept trying to chip away with field goals while the Rams missed potentially a huge 35-yard field goal with 10:11 left that would have made it a 23-12 lead. Instead, Minshew later got the ball back in a 20-15 game with 1:39 left. If he truly is the Ryan Fitzpatrick of the 2020s, he lived up to the reputation with a game-ending interception on the third play of the drive. Good pressure on the drive by Jared Verse, who I guess is still the frontrunner for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Dolphins at Colts: Neither Team Had Their Best Quarterback

Tough loss for Miami (2-4) if they were hoping to get back in this thing with Tua Tagovailoa maybe returning at quarterback next week. They were up 10-0 and Anthony Richardson couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn with his passes.

But the Dolphins gave up a big completion before halftime, which led to a field goal for the Colts. Then in the third quarter, they really coughed up the game to the Colts. Raheem Mostert lost a fumble, which led to a 28-yard touchdown drive, then Alec Ingold lost a fumble in the red zone in a 10-10 game.

The Colts had the ball to start the fourth and Richardson led what is technically his first game-winning drive in the NFL, ending with a 22-yard field goal with 8:41 left. But the Dolphins lost Tyler Huntley to injury, and he was replaced by the dreadful Tim Boyle. Kicker Jason Sanders missed a 54-yard tying field goal with 5:14 left.

After the Colts added a field goal to make it 16-10, a move you can get away with against Boyle, it was a poorly-run 2-minute drill for the Dolphins that didn’t make it past the Indy 33 before Boyle sailed his 4th-down pass out of bounds. Either he’s incredibly inaccurate and tried to get that pass to the sidelines, or he didn’t realize it was fourth down.

Either way, I hate entertaining either of these teams for wild card spots. This is not good football. A game between Joe Flacco and Tua might have been alright though.

Panthers at Commanders: Please, Spare My Favorite Rookie

The crazy thing is Jayden Daniels left in the first quarter with a rib injury and the Commanders still won 40-7. The Washington defense still matched the Carolina team in scoring thanks to a horrific Andy Dalton pick-six starting the scoring in the game. But Marcus Mariota replaced Daniels very well, and it was business as usual for this offense.

I think that says a lot more about how bad the Panthers are (again) than anything about Daniels being a system quarterback. You can’t teach his 46-yard run to anyone, but Mariota is a good fit for that offense.

I just hope Daniels is okay to go next week in the showdown with Chicago and fellow rookie Caleb Williams. It was clear there was no need to rush him back in this game with the score lopsided so quickly.

Next week: Vikings-Rams on TNF. Better than putting Sam Darnold in prime time a week later when the ghosts are out. Eagles-Bengals is a nice game for teams who peaked in 2022. I hope they #FreeJameis against Baltimore in Cleveland. The Falcons-Bucs rematch could be something after the first game was excellent. We need Jayden Daniels healthy for that Chicago game to save the late-window slate. Cowboys-49ers is oddly more interesting now that both teams are struggling. Giants-Steelers means we get to live the Russ experience in prime time again, but I see that as T.J. Watt’s launch game towards DPOY since he gets to face Daniel Jones. Overall, a huge step down from the Week 7 marquee games.

NFL 2024 Week 7 Predictions: Strongest Schedule Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I wouldn’t even say it was by accident, but the NFL has loaded up the best schedule of the 2024 season (so far) with the Week 7 slate. Texans-Packers, Lions-Vikings, Chiefs-49ers, and Ravens-Bucs are all great games, and even Sunday night’s Jets-Steelers game has drama with the debuts of Davante Adams and Russell Wilson on their new teams.

It’s definitely one of those pivotal weeks in the Super Bowl chase as the 49ers need to get a win for their mental health against the Chiefs just to show they can beat that team, their personal road block to multiple championships. We also get to see just how real the Vikings and Sam Darnold are in this NFC North race against the Lions, and I think Texans-Packers is a great non-conference matchup between two teams I was very high on in the offseason.

Favorites were dominant last week with a 12-2 record SU. I’d keep that in mind when it comes to picking this week’s winners, especially in those big games were the road teams are slight underdogs and home-field isn’t what it used to be in this league.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 7 Predictions

I confused Sean Payton for still coaching the Saints, but Denver was in fact my pick on Thursday night, a terrible game to watch. I’m not getting up early for Pats-Jags either. But the good stuff should start at 1 PM.

Pats-Jags: Jacksonville has to win or they’re going to fire Doug Pederson, right? But Drake Maye showed some positives against the Texans last week, so I’m going to hedge and still take the Pats to cover in a closer game than both teams played last week.

Titans-Bills: It looks like Mason Rudolph is starting for Will Levis, but he returns to Buffalo where he lost a playoff game 31-17 with Pittsburgh last year. The Bills haven’t blown anyone out in weeks so they feel due for a big, easy win at home here. The Titans just can’t score enough.

Texans-Packers: I said my 2024 predictions would be horrible if these teams bombed, but they’re 4-2 and 5-1 right now. I’m siding with the Texans here, because I think the Packers have been feasting on turnovers, C.J. Stroud usually protects the ball, and the running game has looked very good with Joe Mixon in the game this year. I also trust Stroud more than Love in crunch time, so I think the Texans can win this one by a late score. Should be good.

Dolphins-Colts: I changed my gut pick here to Miami, a team that tends to win when I expect them to lose. But it’s mostly just that I don’t trust Anthony Richardson, especially without Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. Give me a Colts win if Joe Flacco was the QB, but that’s not the case (unless AR gets hurt again).

Seahawks-Falcons: Could be a good one, but I’m going to trust Atlanta at home as I just don’t trust the Seattle defense. They played bad offenses to start the season and have suffered injuries. Too much skill for Atlanta but it is a push candidate on the spread.

Lions-Vikings: Good spot to see how the Vikings play out of the bye week and how the Lions handle losing Aidan Hutchinson. But my belief is the Lions are going to be the best prepared team to face the Vikings after seeing them twice late in the 2023 season and winning both games. I think they get some turnovers from Sam Darnold, I think Jared Goff does enough against that Brian Flores’ defense, and the Lions keep rolling with a win.

Bengals-Browns: Nick Chubb is back and Kevin Stefanski owns the Bengals in his career. The only problem here is Deshaun Watson is the worst QB in the NFL still starting games. However, I’m going to hedge on the history here and at least give the Browns a chance to cover 5.5 at home. We know the Bengals are a lousy big favorite.

Eagles-Giants: I want to trust Saquon Barkley to have a big Revenge Game in a win. I feel better about it after he was shut down last week. Why? Week-to-week league. What was down last week goes up the next week. Plus I just don’t trust Daniel Jones to beat this team, something I don’t believe he’s done since 2021 when Jalen Hurts had maybe the worst game of his career in a 13-7 final.

Raiders-Rams: Isn’t Stafford contractually obligated to be in a close game every Sunday afternoon? I like the Rams to win, but I’m not trusting them with a 7-point spread.

Panthers-Commanders: Again, it’s time for big favorites to start regressing to the mean and crushing teams. The Commanders have some blowout wins and I just don’t think Panthers will keep up with that offense. Could be a 30-20 game.

Chiefs-49ers: Does the 11-game winning streak continue? We know the Chiefs are usually great after a bye, but the 49ers played last Thursday so it’s not as big of an advantage. Then again, they’ve had byes before two Super Bowls and the Chiefs always find a way to win against Shanahan in the Mahomes era. I could see the Chiefs slipping up here with JuJu popping up with a hamstring issue late in the week. But I also think Purdy holding the ball longer and getting less YAC this season could play into Spags’ hands with blitzes. Should be a good one I’m going to try to watch most of live. I’ll cautiously pick the Chiefs, because you know better than to doubt Mahomes as a road underdog.

Jets-Steelers: I’ll be picking the Jets regardless of which QB the Steelers start. I think Russ is the right call, but all week I’ve pegged this as a game where the Jets will score like 24-27 points and the Steelers will lose, causing people to blame the QB change while ignoring that Justin Fields is 0-22 when the team allows more than 20 points in his career. But I think Rodgers will be comfortable against this predictable defense barring a Watt monster game, and I expect Davante Adams to have an impact immediately. No game-losing INT to Mike Williams this week. Jets finally end the losing streak in what should be a close game.

Ravens-Bucs: Great potential here but I’m not liking the Mike Evans injury news. Sounds like he’ll play though. Ravens are just a tough matchup but at least they faced each other in 2022, so that’s somewhat recent. I’m trusting Lamar to improve to 23-1 against the NFC.

Chargers-Cardinals: No Chargers game has reached 40 total points this year, so the Harbaugh impact has been crazy in multiple ways. The Cardinals are a great 1Q offense before disappearing the rest of the game. Not expecting a ton from this one but I’ll cautiously back the Chargers for another win.

49ers vs. Seahawks Week 6 TNF 1st Quarter Props

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I never played any first quarter props at FanDuel until Monday night in Week 4 when the Dolphins-Titans and Seahawks-Lions were on. I didn’t do any research, I played some longshots, and I came up a leg short on parlays with odds of +30000 and +44000. Just from that night I saw some value in these plays, especially the alternate lines, and the instant satisfaction of finding out if you were right in 30-40 minutes after kickoff also makes these very fun to play.

So, I went into last week’s Falcons-Bucs game on TNF with more research and crafted some plays. I ended up hitting my No Sweat bet as well as a few more parlays, getting very lucky that Bucky Irving fumbled late in the game to finish with 44 yards (O/U 44.5 yards). But the No Sweat was strictly 1Q props and that one hit with +2200 odds or so.

Tonight is another divisional game between the 49ers and Seahawks, so it’s teams with a recent history as this will be Brock Purdy’s 5th start against Seattle, albeit with a new coaching staff for the Seahawks. But the Seahawks are banged up defensively and have struggled the last two games. They’ve also struggled with this SF defense under Geno Smith since 2022.

I compiled the first quarter stats for these teams last 4 meetings, including their 2022 wild card matchup. Note that this is the third year in a row the 49ers are in Seattle on TNF. This is for reference and research purposes. Make your own plays at your own risk, but I thought this guide would be useful for crafting my own plays tonight, and I wanted to share it here. If people find this useful, maybe I’ll do this more often for TNF.

And here’s what I ended up using for my No Sweat.

I know Bucs-Falcons was such a great offensive game that it spoiled me for the weekend. These 1Q props are still quite challenging and I don’t expect to match last week’s success. But they are my favorite new thing to play and I’m hoping to get better at them. But as you can see from the splits above, this stuff is still very random.

Will Aiyuk and DK continue their road-home splits over the last 4 games? We’ll see. But I do like Purdy to start off better than Geno, and I’ll also be mixing in some bets with things like the 49ers winning and Mason scoring a TD.

Let’s win something tonight.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 5

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Week 5 was a step in the right direction for this 2024 NFL season. More scoring and more lead changes – that’s all I really want in the end. We had a few Game of the Year candidates, and the best of them all was probably played Thursday night in Atlanta against Tampa Bay.

But Ravens-Bengals exceeded the hype, Bills-Texans was oddly exciting, the Cardinals shocked the 49ers, and the Cowboys basically shot themselves in the foot all night before putting the dagger in Pittsburgh.

We had seven game-winning drives this week, the most since Week 1 of the 2023 season, and that’s pretty good with four teams on a bye and one game left Monday night that could easily add to this.

Overall, 10-of-13 games had a comeback opportunity, so it was a lot of close action, and the games that weren’t close were basically shit you weren’t going to care about anyway.

But I sure did get a lot of use out of “Same Old” headlines this week as a lot of these games did maintain the status quo for certain teams and players.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Ravens at Bengals: Same Old Bungles (As the AFC North Turns)

Joe Burrow said he’d have to be perfect to win this game, and he was pretty accurate about that. It proved to be one of the biggest shootouts and best games in AFC North history as the Ravens came back to win 41-38 in overtime after some stunning twists and turns down the stretch.

The tide turned in the first half after Derrick Henry was tackled for a safety, then Burrow found Ja’Marr Chase for a 41-yard touchdown to end the first half. From there, it was Baltimore chasing the whole second half.

But Lamar Jackson was game in one of the best passing performances of his career. He threw for 348 yards and 4 touchdowns. Burrow also had one of his best games with 392 yards and 5 touchdown passes as Chase had a monster game with 193 yards.

When Chase took a short pass 70 yards for a touchdown with 8:54 left to give the Bengals a 38-28 lead, it sure didn’t feel like Baltimore’s day. Jackson hadn’t led a game-winning drive in a game where Baltimore allowed more than 17 points since November 2021.

But Jackson led a touchdown drive that culminated in one of the greatest plays of his career:

Up 38-35, the Bengals had a chance to either ice the game with a first down, or they could have added a field goal to take a 6-point lead (as dreaded as that sounds). But Burrow made his only big mistake when he threw a bad interception with 3:01 left.

Baltimore’s drive stalled, but Justin Tucker had the offense’s back with a 56-yard field goal to tie it. Here we were again with Burrow having a chance for a legacy drive with 1:35 left in a tied game, but he immediately took a sack that derailed things. The Bengals went three-and-out and the game went to overtime.

Something had to give here with Jackson not leading any game-winning drive since the 2022 season, and Burrow having his own problems with a lack of a killer instinct.

The Ravens got the ball first, and sure enough, Jackson took his eye off the ball and fumbled the snap in field goal range. The Bengals returned it to the Baltimore 38, setting themselves up to win the game on a field goal. But as we’ve seen before with this team and Zac Taylor, they were content with just running the ball and setting up a very long field goal, which is usually a bad idea unless you have Tucker as your kicker.

After gaining just 3 yards, the Bengals attempted a 53-yard field goal, and a bad hold looked responsible for throwing off the kick as Evan McPherson was wide left. On the very next snap, Henry made up for his quiet game with a 51-yard run down to the Cincinnati 6. Without risking another fumbled snap or screw-up, the Ravens did the right thing and immediately kicked the 24-yard field goal with Tucker to win the game 41-38. You know he delivered.

Just like that, the Ravens went from falling into the 2-3 muck with the Bengals in the AFC North race to back on top after the Steelers lost on Sunday night to also fall to 3-2.

I would say the Bengals are finished at 1-4, but the AFC is not good enough right now to rule them out for a wild card berth. But the division title may be a pipe dream now. That Cincinnati defense is just rotten this year, and while the Ravens have their own issues, a healthy dose of Jackson and Henry is going to be tough to deal with.

I don’t know if I could say in good faith that the Ravens are the best team in the NFL after they should have lost this game. But they continue to be a tough out and unique challenge for everyone.

Cowboys at Steelers: Same Old Steelers

I feel like I’m in some Twilight Zone where people keep giving Justin Fields credit for an “almost comeback” last week as if we didn’t see that several times in Chicago from him. I also don’t get the celebration of the Steelers playing another sloppy grind of a game like they always do as if that’s a good thing. It’s why this team is always flirting with .500 and never winning playoff games anymore. This is not good football when you trial 6-3 at halftime because you’re playing scared, chickenshit offense and your defense is living for splash plays because you give up so many yards otherwise.

Stick a competent quarterback against this defense and it’s going to struggle. Dak Prescott finally pulled his head out of his ass on the final drive to deliver a dagger with 20 seconds left to Jalen Tolbert for the win on a long-developing play:

Great, patient throw. The Cowboys were staring down a 17-13 deficit, a minus-3 mark in the turnover department, and they had a field goal blocked. It’s really hard to win on the road when you face those circumstances, but they pulled it out. They also deserved the win as they outgained the Steelers 445-226. They just shot themselves in the foot more.

I still think the Steelers should start Russell Wilson as soon as he’s cleared. He’ll do more than complete four passes in the first half as it still looks like they’re not fully trusting Fields. Hence doing things like running the ball on 3rd-and-8 while trailing 3-0. That’s not normal for NFL offenses.

Wilson will also give them a bigger edge in close games, something this team can’t seem to escape.

Bills at Texans: Same Old 2019 Josh Allen?

Josh Allen was back in the building where he played his first playoff game in the 2019 AFC Wild Card against the Texans. He lost that one in overtime, a game I remember best for his wild lateral attempt at midfield that he didn’t need to do. But he was a loose cannon back then and not nearly as good as he’d become starting in 2020 when the team acquired wide receiver Stefon Diggs.

Well, Diggs and Allen were back together on Sunday, but this time they were rivals after the April trade that sent Diggs to Houston. It couldn’t have come at a better time too as Nico Collins left this game injured after smoking the defense for a 67-yard touchdown catch. Diggs had to step up in his absence, and he finished with 6 catches for 82 yards.

Meanwhile, Allen finished 9-of-30 for 131 yards, an unfathomable stat line for any quarterback in 2024, let alone Allen. I saw some drops but I don’t know what the actual number was. But Allen certainly looked scattershot and not that confident with the group around him, which didn’t include Khalil Shakir after his injury last week.

It truly was a game where the Bills lacked receivers in Diggs’ absence, and the Texans were aided by the Diggs trade to make up for losing Collins. How fitting.

But while C.J. Stroud had a strong start to this game when it was 20-3 Houston, looking like he deserved to jump Allen in the MVP odds, he did not finish this game like an MVP. Stroud got into turnover problems with a pick in Buffalo territory, a strip-sack that set up the game-tying field goal for Buffalo, and then he got called for an intentional grounding penalty that knocked the Texans out of field goal range in the final minute. Just one mistake after another.

But the biggest story was when Allen’s head clearly hit the ground on a bad play, and he looked like he may have gone to sleep for a few seconds. Everyone was thinking concussion, but somehow, Allen was cleared and only missed one snap. It makes you wonder just how thorough that test was and if he didn’t use his star status to stay in the game. That one didn’t pass the sniff test for me.

Upon returning, Allen sure played as if he had a brain injury. Coach Sean McDermott is taking the blame, but Buffalo’s approach to the final drive in a 20-20 game was mind boggling. They had 1st-and-10 at their own 3 with 32 seconds left, so that’s not an enviable position. You are afraid to run since you might get a safety if you give it that deep to a back, and Houston also had 3 timeouts.

It was realistic that the Bills could run the ball 3 times, the Texans call their timeouts, and you still risk a punt with seconds left with Houston having a shot to do something. On that level, I can understand coming out trying to throw. But you still have to call good plays and make smart throws that will likely be completed and run clock to make the Texans burn those timeouts.

Allen was throwing dangerous passes that could have been picked off, and even if they were complete, the gain wasn’t worth it as the Bills were out of timeouts and would have had a hard time getting into range.

It was just absolutely bizarre as Allen threw three straight incompletions and the Bills punted on a drive that took 25 seconds, gained no yards, and allowed the Texans to keep all their timeouts. Just poor situational awareness.

Stroud completed a 5-yard pass, the receiver went down, and the Texans called timeout with 2 seconds left. Guess what? If they used their 3 timeouts to get the ball back from Buffalo, they wouldn’t have had that option there. They would have needed to get out of bounds, which is harder to do. That’s why the 3 incompletions were such a fvck-up.

Fairbairn was able to connect from 59 yards on the best kick of his career to win 23-20. It wasn’t pretty at all, but have you seen the way the Chiefs are winning? Did you see how Baltimore got past Dallas and Cincy? This will do as the early portion of the game at least showed the Texans could take it to Buffalo, a potential playoff foe down the road.

There should definitely be some concerns with that Buffalo offense. Forget the Chiefs and Jets. The Bills should be in those wide receiver trade markets as I don’t think they have enough here to beat the top AFC teams this year.

Cardinals at 49ers: Same Old Shanahan

It’s hard to identify any real trends in what goes into Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers blowing a game they should have won. All I know is that it happens frequently enough, and that’s why I hated the graphic FOX tried pushing in the fourth quarter of this game that said Shanahan’s team was 38-0 when entering the fourth quarter with a 10+ point lead. The 49ers were up 23-10 at halftime and 23-13 going into the fourth quarter of this one.

First, I hate graphics like this because they lead to people drawing the false conclusion that he’s never lost a game with a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. This is just the score at the start of the quarter. Isn’t it more relevant what the score was even later in the game?

That’s what I hate about “entering the fourth quarter” stats as the score with 15:00 left isn’t as important as say 7:00 left. Just two weeks ago, the 49ers were up 10 points against the Rams with less than half the quarter to play, and they found a way to lose that one.

Also, this ignores the playoffs where he know Shanahan lost Super Bowl LIX to the Chiefs after leading 20-10 to enter the 4th, and he lost the 2021 NFC Championship Game to the Rams after leading 17-7 to enter the 4th. Those were losses too, among the biggest in his career.

With that said, this one still shocked me as the Cardinals seemed snakebitten. They had a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. But things took a turn in the second half when the 49ers had to play without kicker Jake Moody. I still think he’s a liability, but he’s better than not having a kicker. That injury led to the 49ers going for a 4th-and-23 instead of adding a 45-yard field goal to their lead.

Even if the 49ers got into field-goal range on the last drive, I’m not sure they would have been able to capitalize given the injured kicker situation. But I also don’t like that Brock Purdy is going to get the brunt of the blame for another loss that’s dropped this team to 2-3.

Yes, he didn’t play his best game, but he had a tipped pick, he had the misfortune of the kicker situation, and running back Jordan Mason really screwed them with a bad fumble on first down in the red zone with just over 6:00 left in a 23-21 game. Not to mention the reason the Cardinals were down 23-21 instead of 23-20 was a roughing the passer penalty on the defense, so the Cardinals took the 2-point conversion from the 1-yard line, a smart move.

The Cardinals took the Mason fumble and drove for the go-ahead field goal to make it 24-23 with 1:37 left. Again, I’m not sure the 49ers would have been able to settle for a field goal on the drive unless it was super short.

But after one completion, Purdy was hit in motion as he threw, the ball fluttered, and it was intercepted to end the game. That’s just how it goes sometimes, but the 49ers again found themselves in a position they shouldn’t have been in.

This happens a bit too often for Shanahan’s team. The only good news is Seattle lost too as a big favorite at home. They’ll meet each other this Thursday night in Seattle.

Jets vs. Vikings: Same Old Rodgers (And Same Old Darnold?)

If you’re Davante Adams, do you even want to go back to the Jets when they look like this with Aaron Rodgers? He threw two picks in the first quarter, a new thing for him, and that includes a pick-six that helped the Vikings take a 17-0 lead. Minnesota has not trailed in a game since the first quarter of Week 1 against the Giants.

But before you thought this would be a blowout, keep in mind Sam Darnold had the worst game of his 2024 season and brief time with Minnesota. He was picked in the fourth quarter too, and the offense missed Aaron Jones after an injury knocked him out. They only scored 16 points on offense this week with Darnold not throwing any touchdowns.

Rodgers chipped away at that defense, but he ended up throwing for 244 yards on 54 attempts, including 101 yards on 22 targets to Garrett Wilson. That’s not very efficient at all. I don’t think the weapons are that bad for Rodgers in this offense, but he just doesn’t seem to have built good chemistry with anyone yet.

Down 23-17 late, it looked like Rodgers might actually pull off the comeback. But while he usually takes interception avoidance to another level in these moments, this time he threw a pass to Mike Williams down the sideline that veteran Stephon Gilmore picked off with 44 seconds left to help the Vikings to 5-0 and drop the Jets to 2-3.

Rodgers took a beating in this game and it’s hard to see him lasting a full season at this rate. I’m not sure adding Adams is the cure-all for this offense, but it is the side of the team that is holding them back. The defense did a good job of limiting the Vikings and keeping this game within reach.

As for the Vikings, they get an early bye and have a huge game with Detroit at home in Week 7. They’ll hope the real Sam Darnold doesn’t come back when they do, because Sunday was not as encouraging as the first four games for him.

Packers at Rams: Same Old West Coast Stafford?

Matthew Stafford always had some Philip Rivers-type gunslinger qualities in him. He was better in crunch time than Rivers, but with Rivers retired, we needed someone to fill the void of a quarterback always stuck in a one-score game in the late window. Sure, Justin Herbert does a good job of that with the Chargers, but he’s been hurt lately.

It falls on Stafford, who once again found himself with the ball late in a 24-19 game against Green Bay thanks to some horrific decisions by Jordan Love, who turned a safety into a pick-six. Will Levis didn’t play this weekend, but his spirit was kept alive by Love here:

But the Packers also picked Stafford with Xavier McKinney adding to his great start to the season. Still, it was only a 24-19 game late and it came down to another last-gasp effort by Stafford. He was unable to convert a 4th-and-5 this time with 1:02 left, and that was the ballgame.

The Packers are actually getting more consistent play from their defense than their offense right now, but if Love can ever get on track this year, they have a chance to go far.

Browns at Commanders: Same Old Sack Merchant

The Washington Commanders had their least efficient game on offense this season, punting 4 times and turning it over twice. Jayden Daniels completed 56% of his passes instead of the 82% he was at.

And still it was good enough to win 34-13 over a Cleveland team that is playing a lot of bad football right now. But for all the problems Cleveland has, nothing is worse than the way Deshaun Watson plays quarterback. He took 7 more sacks as he is just a magnet for defenders even in ways we didn’t see in Houston.

Watson’s QBR is down to 21.0 this season. In any other situation, he’d have been benched already, but coach Kevin Stefanski insists he’s still the QB1 in Cleveland. Keep this up and you’ll be unemployed while he’s still there fleecing the organization, Kevin.

Daniels in Washington just goes to show how quickly you can turn things around in this league with the right pick at quarterback. The Texans did it a couple years after Watson left with C.J. Stroud too. Cleveland never seems to find that guy, but the answer sure as hell isn’t keeping Watson as the starter.

Colts at Jaguars: Same Old Indy in Jacksonville

Something had to give here:

  • The Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014, losing eight straight trips there (plus one in London against Blake Bortles).
  • The Jaguars had lost 9 straight games started by quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the quarterback who practically can’t win a game if he doesn’t complete better than 60% of his passes.

Well, it was a wild path to a 37-34 win with Joe Flacco putting the fear of God in Jacksonville fans with some classic deep ball prayers that were answered by Alec Pierce. The Colts just didn’t want to die in this game despite trailing 20-10, 27-17, 34-20 in the fourth quarter alone.

Flacco’s 65-yard touchdown to Pierce tied the game at 34 with 2:40 left. But Lawrence finally had one of those sharp, efficient games as he threw for a career-high 371 yards on his 25th birthday. He completed 28-of-34 passes too, and it looks like the Jags have a stud in rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr., who had 122 yards and another big touchdown. Tank Bigsby also showed off some big-play ability at running back, so Travis Etienne may be taking a backseat in this offense.

But game on the line, Lawrence did a good job of moving into field-goal range. Certainly better than you saw from C.J. Stroud, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow in the same window on Sunday.

The Jaguars made a 49-yard field goal with 17 seconds left, and that was good enough to hang on for the 37-34 win, the team’s first win of 2024. But it actually may be a more troubling game for the Colts as someone is going to have to ask coach Shane Steichen why his offense does better with Gardner Minshew and Flacco at quarterback than it does the injury-prone Anthony Richardson. That’s troubling.

Giants at Seahawks: Same Old Pete Carroll Type of Loss?

We’ve seen the Seahawks lose at home to a bad Giants team before. I remember the 2020 loss when they were an 11-point favorite. But I really didn’t think it would happen this time without Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary available.

But the Giants marched up and down the field with Darius Slayton crapping out a 122-yard game, and the running back Tracy (Dick?) rushed for 129 yards. Embarrassing stuff. This game shouldn’t even have been this close as the Seahawks only got on the board early with a fortunate fumble at the goal line that was scooped up for a 102-yard return. If that was ruled a New York touchdown on the field, it probably would have stood as it was that close.

Can someone tell me exactly who was out on the defense for Seattle to have such miserable results after allowing the Lions to complete 100% of their passes last week? I know rookie Byron Murphy was out again, and I know rusher Boye Mafe missed his second-straight game. But who else is going to make that much of a difference after the Seahawks played very good defense in Weeks 1-3?

The Seahawks must have been so scared of their defense that they went for a 4th-and-1 at their own 35 while trailing 20-13 with nearly a whole quarter left. I don’t like that call as the offense wasn’t playing nearly well enough to think they’d march the 65+ yards for a touchdown even if they converted. Fail there and you’re almost guaranteed to go down two scores, which they did. Worse, Geno Smith took a sack and gave up 7 more yards in field position. He had great scrambles (72 rushing yards) in this game, but his passing was not up to snuff.

But despite all the struggles, the Seahawks were in position to win this game, or at least force overtime. Down 23-20, Geno’s 32-yard scramble put them in field goal range, but they didn’t get much closer than that. The 47-yard field goal was emphatically blocked with 0:55 left for a touchdown return, and that’s your ballgame, a rough 29-20 loss for Seattle.

The only good news is the 49ers blew their game against Arizona, setting up an awkward battle this Thursday night in the NFC West.

Panthers at Bears: NOT the Same Old Chicago Offense?

There’s not much complaining now about Caleb Williams after three games that have been much more promising after that rough start. Such is the life of a rookie quarterback in this league. Williams finished with 304 yards and 2 touchdown passes in this one, and he almost had a highlight-worthy touchdown run that was taken away by penalty.

But this is more along the lines of what we thought when writing this offseason that the Bears were putting the best situation around Williams among all No. 1 picks. The defense was again very good as Andy Dalton was eventually benched for Bryce Young in the 36-10 loss. D.J. Moore had a huge game with 105 yards and 2 touchdowns. Williams only took 1 sack against 29 passes thrown.

The Bears are 3-2 and things are moving in the right direction. But it will get harder once they start playing these NFC North games. It looks like the best division this year as none of the teams are objectively bad.

Raiders at Broncos: NOT the Same Old Raiders vs. Denver in the 2020s

Did you know the Raiders were 8-0 against Denver since moving to Vegas in 2020? Well, that streak is no more as Sean Payton helped end another one for his Broncos in the AFC West. They ended their 16-game losing streak to the Chiefs last season.

This one didn’t start well with a 10-0 deficit as rookie tight end Brock Bowers produced a big play for his first touchdown. But Gardner Minshew made some ghastly interceptions that I thought would get him benched this week, but Antonio Pierce wasted no time and pulled him in this game for Aidan O’Connell. But that predictably didn’t help, and it appears Bo Nix is decent every other week as he had another solid game in this one after last week’s embarrassment (despite the win) in the rain.

Denver went on a 34-0 scoring run to win 34-18. It was a lot of scoring on short fields, almost like they did in 2023, so I wouldn’t get too excited yet. But that is three straight wins for Denver, and they finally ended that losing streak to their rivals from Las Vegas.

But the coolest thing in this game? Those throwback uniforms for Denver:

Dolphins at Patriots: Same Old Offensive Woes in New England

These teams predictably struggled to score in a 15-10 game between the NFL’s worst scoring offenses. But the Patriots had a 10-9 lead in the fourth quarter. They picked a bad time to throw the ball on consecutive attempts on the outskirts of field-goal range, and that allowed the Dolphins to get the ball back in a 10-9 game and drive for a long touchdown march after discovering the running game worked in New England.

Down 15-10, Jacoby Brissett looked like he had a go-ahead touchdown to rookie Ja’Lynn Polk, but he didn’t come down with the completion on a missed opportunity. The Pats turned it over on downs, then rushed a throw to the Miami 11 as time expired on their latest loss.

You can get Tua Tagovailoa back or start Drake Maye, but neither team appears to be going anywhere this season.

Next week: We’ll see what the Chiefs do Monday night, but it’s possible both 5-0 teams (KC and Vikings) are on a bye in Week 6. Thursday night’s 49ers-Seahawks game takes a weird turn after both teams lost as touchdown favorites at home on Sunday. No chance I’m getting up early for Jags-Bears on Sunday. Commanders-Ravens in the early afternoon slot sounds great. Lions-Cowboys headlines the late window, then we get Bengals-Giants on SNF. Who possibly could have thought that was a good idea? Then it’s Bills-Jets on MNF, which very similar to TNF, it’s a first-place battle between teams that are disappointing us so far. But sure, sign me up for Jayden Daniels against this vulnerable Baltimore defense.